Sample records for maximum rainfall intensity

  1. Rainfall Maximum Intensities for Urban Hydrological Design in Mexican Republic

    Campos–Aranda D.F.


    Full Text Available Firstly, through the urban hydrosystem concept and through urbanization, the difficulties and approach of the urban flood estimation are established, based in the Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves (IDF. Next, in 10 recording gages located in very different geographic zones, a procedure is contrasted for IDF estimation curves, which utilized the Chen formula and the available information in the Mexican Republic for isohyet intensities and annual daily maximum rainfall. Late, having verified their capacity and approximation to reproduce the IDF curves, the utilized procedure was applied in 45 important locations of the country, showing the results. Lastly, the conclusions are formulated, which point out the approximation and simplicity of the proposal procedure.

  2. Estimate of annual daily maximum rainfall and intense rain equation for the Formiga municipality, MG, Brazil

    Giovana Mara Rodrigues Borges


    Full Text Available Knowledge of the probabilistic behavior of rainfall is extremely important to the design of drainage systems, dam spillways, and other hydraulic projects. This study therefore examined statistical models to predict annual daily maximum rainfall as well as models of heavy rain for the city of Formiga - MG. To do this, annual maximum daily rainfall data were ranked in decreasing order that best describes the statistical distribution by exceedance probability. Daily rainfall disaggregation methodology was used for the intense rain model studies and adjusted with Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF and Exponential models. The study found that the Gumbel model better adhered to the data regarding observed frequency as indicated by the Chi-squared test, and that the exponential model best conforms to the observed data to predict intense rains.

  3. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.


    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  4. Gross rainfall amount and maximum rainfall intensity in 60-minute influence on interception loss of shrubs: a 10-year observation in the Tengger Desert

    Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Xin-Rong; Huang, Lei; Tan, Hui-Juan


    In water-limited regions, rainfall interception is influenced by rainfall properties and crown characteristics. Rainfall properties, aside from gross rainfall amount and duration (GR and RD), maximum rainfall intensity and rainless gap (RG), within rain events may heavily affect throughfall and interception by plants. From 2004 to 2014 (except for 2007), individual shrubs of Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia ordosica were selected to measure throughfall during 210 rain events. Various rainfall properties were auto-measured and crown characteristics, i.e., height, branch and leaf area index, crown area and volume of two shrubs were also measured. The relative interceptions of C. korshinskii and A. ordosica were 29.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Rainfall properties have more contributions than crown characteristics to throughfall and interception of shrubs. Throughfall and interception of shrubs can be explained by GR, RI60 (maximum rainfall intensities during 60 min), RD and RG in deceasing importance. However, relative throughfall and interception of two shrubs have different responses to rainfall properties and crown characteristics, those of C. korshinskii were closely related to rainfall properties, while those of A. ordosica were more dependent on crown characteristics. We highlight long-term monitoring is very necessary to determine the relationships between throughfall and interception with crown characteristics.

  5. On the consideration of scaling properties of extreme rainfall in Madrid (Spain) for developing a generalized intensity-duration-frequency equation and assessing probable maximum precipitation estimates

    Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Navarro, Xavier; Russo, Beniamino; Lastra, Antonio; González, Paula; Redaño, Angel


    The fractal behavior of extreme rainfall intensities registered between 1940 and 2012 by the Retiro Observatory of Madrid (Spain) has been examined, and a simple scaling regime ranging from 25 min to 3 days of duration has been identified. Thus, an intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) master equation of the location has been constructed in terms of the simple scaling formulation. The scaling behavior of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for durations between 5 min and 24 h has also been verified. For the statistical estimation of the PMP, an envelope curve of the frequency factor (k m ) based on a total of 10,194 station-years of annual maximum rainfall from 258 stations in Spain has been developed. This curve could be useful to estimate suitable values of PMP at any point of the Iberian Peninsula from basic statistical parameters (mean and standard deviation) of its rainfall series.

  6. Role of spatial variability of rainfall intensity: improve- ment of Eagleson's classical model to explain the rela- tionship between the coefficient of variation of annual maximum discharge and catchment size

    Kuzuha, Yasuhisa; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tomosugi, Kunio; Kishii, Tokuo; Komatsu, Yosuke


    Eagleson's classical regional flood frequency model is investigated. Our intention was not to improve the model, but to reveal previously unidentified important and dominant hydrological processes in it. The change of the coefficient of variation (CV) of annual maximum discharge with catchment area can be viewed as representing the spatial variance of floods in a homogeneous region. Several researchers have reported that the CV decreases as the catchment area increases, at least for large areas. On the other hand, Eagleson's classical studies have been known as pioneer efforts that combine the concept of similarity analysis (scaling) with the derived flood frequency approach. As we have shown, the classical model can reproduce the empirical relationship between the mean annual maximum discharge and catchment area, but it cannot reproduce the empirical decreasing CV-catchment area curve. Therefore, we postulate that previously unidentified hydrological processes would be revealed if the classical model were improved to reproduce the decreasing of CV with catchment area. First, we attempted to improve the classical model by introducing a channel network, but this was ineffective. However, the classical model was improved by introducing a two-parameter gamma distribution for rainfall intensity. What is important is not the gamma distribution itself, but those characteristics of spatial variability of rainfall intensity whose CV decreases with increasing catchment area. Introducing the variability of rainfall intensity into the hydrological simulations explains how the CV of rainfall intensity decreases with increasing catchment area. It is difficult to reflect the rainfall-runoff processes in the model while neglecting the characteristics of rainfall intensity from the viewpoint of annual flood discharge variances.

  7. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Saralees Nadarajah; Dongseok Choi


    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.


    Serkan ŞENOCAK


    Full Text Available The scope of this study is to develop a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF equation for some return periods at Erzurum rainfall station. The maximum annual rainfall values for 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are statistically analyzed for the period 1956 – 2004 by using some statistical distributions such as the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV, Gumbel, Normal, Two-parameter Lognormal, Three-parameter Lognormal, Gamma, Pearson type III and Log-Pearson type III distributions. ?2 goodness-of-fit test was used to choose the best statistical distribution among all distributions. IDF equation constants and coefficients of correlation (R for each emprical functions are calculated using nonlinear estimation method for each return periods (T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100 years. The most suitable IDF equation is observed that ( B max i (t = A/ t + C , except for T=100 years, because of the highest coefficients of correlation.

  9. Modeling the Distribution of Rainfall Intensity using Hourly Data

    Salisu Dan'azumi; Supiah Shamsudin; Azmi Aris


    Problem statement: Design of storm water best management practices to control runoff and water pollution can be achieved if a prior knowledge of the distribution of rainfall characteristics is known. Rainfall intensity, particularly in tropical climate, plays a major role in the design of runoff conveyance and erosion control systems. This study is aimed to explore the statistical distribution of rainfall intensity for Peninsular Malaysia using hourly rainfall data. Approach: Hourly rainfall ...

  10. Rainfall intensity-duration conditions for mass movements in Taiwan

    Chen, Chi-Wen; Saito, Hitoshi; Oguchi, Takashi


    Mass movements caused by rainfall events in Taiwan are analyzed during a 7-year period from 2006 to 2012. Data from the Taiwan Soil and Water Conservation Bureau reports were compiled for 263 mass movement events, including 156 landslides, 91 debris flows, and 16 events with both landslides and debris flows. Rainfall totals for each site location were obtained from interpolated rain gauge data. The rainfall intensity-duration ( I-D) relationship was examined to establish a rainfall threshold for mass movements using random sampling: I = 18.10(±2.67) D -0.17(±0.04), where I is mean rainfall intensity (mm/h) and D is the time (h) between the beginning of a rainfall event and the resulting mass movement. Significant differences were found between rainfall intensities and thresholds for landslides and debris flows. For short-duration rainfall events, higher mean rainfall intensities were required to trigger debris flows. In contrast, for long-duration rainfall events, similar mean rainfall intensities triggered both landslides and debris flows. Mean rainfall intensity was rescaled by mean annual precipitation (MAP) to define a new threshold: I MAP = 0.0060(±0.0009) D -0.17(±0.04), where I MAP is rescaled rainfall intensity and MAP is the minimum for mountainous areas in Taiwan (3000 mm). Although the I-D threshold for Taiwan is high, the I MAP -D threshold for Taiwan tends to be low relative to other areas around the world. Our results indicate that Taiwan is highly prone to rainfall-induced mass movements. This study also shows that most mass movements occur in high rainfall-intensity periods, but some events occur before or after the rainfall peak. Both antecedent and peak rainfall play important roles in triggering landslides, whereas debris flow occurrence is more related to peak rainfall than antecedent rainfall.

  11. [Rainfall intensity effects on nutrients transport in surface runoff from farmlands in gentle slope hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin].

    Li, Rui-ling; Zhang, Yong-chun; Liu, Zhuang; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Wei-xin; Zhang, Hong-ling


    To investigate the effect of rainfall on agricultural nonpoint source pollution, watershed scale experiments were conducted to study the characteristics of nutrients in surface runoff under different rainfall intensities from farmlands in gentle slope hilly areas around Taihu Lake. Rainfall intensity significantly affected N and P concentrations in runoff. Rainfall intensity was positively related to TP, PO4(3-) -P and NH4+ -N event mean concentrations(EMC). However, this study have found the EMC of TN and NO3- -N to be positively related to rainfall intensity under light rain and negatively related to rainfall intensity under heavy rain. TN and TP site mean amounts (SMA) in runoff were positively related to rainfall intensity and were 1.91, 311.83, 127.65, 731.69 g/hm2 and 0.04, 7.77, 2.99, 32.02 g/hm2 with rainfall applied under light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm respectively. N in runoff was mainly NO3- -N and NH4+ -N and was primarily in dissolved form from Meilin soils. Dissolved P (DP) was the dominant form of TP under light rain, but particulate P (PP) mass loss increased with the increase of rainfall intensity and to be the dominant form when the rainfall intensity reaches rainstorm. Single relationships were used to describe the dependence of TN and TP mass losses in runoff on rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity, average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration respectively. The results showed a significant positive correlation between TN mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01).

  12. The relationship between the Guinea Highlands and the West African offshore rainfall maximum

    Hamilton, H. L.; Young, G. S.; Evans, J. L.; Fuentes, J. D.; Núñez Ocasio, K. M.


    Satellite rainfall estimates reveal a consistent rainfall maximum off the West African coast during the monsoon season. An analysis of 16 years of rainfall in the monsoon season is conducted to explore the drivers of such copious amounts of rainfall. Composites of daily rainfall and midlevel meridional winds centered on the days with maximum rainfall show that the day with the heaviest rainfall follows the strongest midlevel northerlies but coincides with peak low-level moisture convergence. Rain type composites show that convective rain dominates the study region. The dominant contribution to the offshore rainfall maximum is convective development driven by the enhancement of upslope winds near the Guinea Highlands. The enhancement in the upslope flow is closely related to African easterly waves propagating off the continent that generate low-level cyclonic vorticity and convergence. Numerical simulations reproduce the observed rainfall maximum and indicate that it weakens if the African topography is reduced.

  13. A point rainfall model and rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis

    Yoo, Chul-Sang; Jung, Kwang-Sik [Korea University, Jochiwon(Korea); Kim, Nam-Won [Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Koyang(Korea)


    This study proposes a theoretical methodology for deriving a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency(I-D-F) curve using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. As the I-D-F curve derived by considering the model structure is dependent on the rainfall model parameters estimated using the observed first and second order statistics, it becomes less sensitive to the unusual rainfall events than that derived using the annual maxima rainfall series. This study has been applied to the rainfall data at Seoul and Incheon stations to check its applicability by comparing the two I-D-F curves from the model and the data. The results obtained are as followed. (1) As the duration becomes longer, the overlap probability increases significantly. However, its contribution to the rainfall intensity decreases a little. (2) When considering the overlap of each rainfall event, especially for large duration and return period, we could see obvious increases of rainfall intensity. This result is normal as the rainfall intensity is calculated by considering both the overlap probability and return period. Also, the overlap effect for Seoul station is found much higher than that for Incheon station, which is mainly due to the different overlap probabilities calculated using different rainfall model parameter sets. (3) As the rectangular pulses Poisson processes model used in this study cannot consider the clustering characteristics of rainfall, the derived I-D-F curves show less rainfall intensities than those from the annual maxima series. However, overall pattern of both I-D-F curves are found very similar, and the difference is believed to be overcome by use of a rainfall model with the clustering consideration. (author). 14 refs., 6 tabs., 2 figs.

  14. Variable rainfall intensity and tillage effects on runoff, sediment, and carbon losses from a loamy sand under simulated rainfall.

    Truman, C C; Strickland, T C; Potter, T L; Franklin, D H; Bosch, D D; Bednarz, C W


    The low-carbon, intensively cropped Coastal Plain soils of Georgia are susceptible to runoff, soil loss, and drought. Reduced tillage systems offer the best management tool for sustained row crop production. Understanding runoff, sediment, and chemical losses from conventional and reduced tillage systems is expected to improve if the effect of a variable rainfall intensity storm was quantified. Our objective was to quantify and compare effects of a constant (Ic) intensity pattern and a more realistic, observed, variable (Iv) rainfall intensity pattern on runoff (R), sediment (E), and carbon losses (C) from a Tifton loamy sand cropped to conventional-till (CT) and strip-till (ST) cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Four treatments were evaluated: CT-Ic, CT-Iv, ST-Ic, and ST-Iv, each replicated three times. Field plots (n=12), each 2 by 3 m, were established on each treatment. Each 6-m2 field plot received simulated rainfall at a constant (57 mm h(-1)) or variable rainfall intensity pattern for 70 min (12-run ave.=1402 mL; CV=3%). The Iv pattern represented the most frequent occurring intensity pattern for spring storms in the region. Compared with CT, ST decreased R by 2.5-fold, E by 3.5-fold, and C by 7-fold. Maximum runoff values for Iv events were 1.6-fold higher than those for Ic events and occurred 38 min earlier. Values for Etot and Ctot for Iv events were 19-36% and 1.5-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Values for Emax and Cmax for Iv events were 3-fold and 4-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Carbon enrichment ratios (CER) were or=1.0 for CT plots (except for first 20 min). Maximum CER for CT-Ic, CT-Iv, ST-Ic, and ST-Iv were 2.0, 2.2, 1.0, and 1.2, respectively. Transport of sediment, carbon, and agrichemicals would be better understood if variable rainfall intensity patterns derived from natural rainfall were used in rainfall simulations to evaluate their fate and transport from CT and ST systems.

  15. Evaluating rainfall kinetic energy - intensity relationships with observed disdrometric data

    Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Begueria, Santiago; Latorre, Borja


    Rainfall kinetic energy is required for determining erosivity, the ability of rainfall to detach soil particles and initiate erosion. Its determination relay on the use of disdrometers, i.e. devices capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. In the absence of such devices, rainfall kinetic energy is usually estimated with empirical expressions relating rainfall energy and intensity. We evaluated the performance of 14 rainfall energy equations in estimating one-minute rainfall energy and event total energy, in comparison with observed data from 821 rainfall episodes (more than 100 thousand one-minute observations) by means of an optical disdrometer. In addition, two sources of bias when using such relationships were evaluated: i) the influence of using theoretical terminal raindrop fall velocities instead of measured values; and ii) the influence of time aggregation (rainfall intensity data every 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minutes). Empirical relationships did a relatively good job when complete events were considered (R2 > 0.82), but offered poorer results for within-event (one-minute resolution) variation. Also, systematic biases where large for many equations. When raindrop size distribution was known, estimating the terminal fall velocities by empirical laws produced good results even at fine time resolution. The influence of time aggregation was very high in the estimated kinetic energy, although linear scaling may allow empirical correction. This results stress the importance of considering all these effects when rainfall energy needs to be estimated from more standard precipitation records. , and recommends the use of disdrometer data to locally determine rainfall kinetic energy.

  16. Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments

    Amina Shahzadi; Ahmad Saeed Akhter; Betul Saf


    The estimation of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall has immense importance to make decisions about hydraulic structures like spillways, dikes and dams etc The main objective of this study is to get the best fit distributions for annual maximum rainfall data on regional basis in order to estimate the extreme rainfall events (quantiles) for various return periods. This study is carried out using index flood method using L-moments by Hosking and wallis (1997). The study is based on 23 ...

  17. Probability analysis for consecutive-day maximum rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City (south India, Asia)

    Sabarish, R. Mani; Narasimhan, R.; Chandhru, A. R.; Suribabu, C. R.; Sudharsan, J.; Nithiyanantham, S.


    In the design of irrigation and other hydraulic structures, evaluating the magnitude of extreme rainfall for a specific probability of occurrence is of much importance. The capacity of such structures is usually designed to cater to the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during its lifetime. In this study, an extreme value analysis of rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City in Tamil Nadu was carried out using 100 years of rainfall data. Statistical methods were used in the analysis. The best-fit probability distribution was evaluated for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days of continuous maximum rainfall. The goodness of fit was evaluated using Chi-square test. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that log-Pearson type III method is the overall best-fit probability distribution for 1-day maximum rainfall and consecutive 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series of Tiruchirapalli. To be reliable, the forecasted maximum rainfalls for the selected return periods are evaluated in comparison with the results of the plotting position.

  18. General Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia and the Potential Impacts of Local Seas on Rainfall Intensity

    Han Soo Lee


    Full Text Available The relationships between observed rainfall, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and sea surface temperature (SST variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a 1° latitude–longitude grid over Indonesia. The Global Summary of the Day rainfall records provide 26 years of rainfall data (January 1985 to August 2010 for 23 stations throughout the Indonesian islands. The ENSO and SST variations were calculated using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, NINO1 + 2, NINO3, NINO3.4, NINO4, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, and Indian Ocean Basin-wide (IOBW index. The results show that the rainfall in the southern Sumatra and southern Java Islands, which face the Indian Ocean, was positively correlated with the negative IOD, whereas the rainfall in northwestern Sumatra was positively correlated with the positive IOD. In eastern Indonesia, the rainfall was positively correlated with La Niña. The PDO index was also strongly correlated with the rainfall in this region. In central Indonesia, seasonal variations due to monsoons are predominant, and the rainfall exhibited strong negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, indicating that high rainfall occurred during strong La Niña episodes. The highly negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, in central Indonesia led us to analyze the impacts of Indonesian seas on the rainfall in the region. Using four synoptic-scale scenarios, we investigated the relative residence time of Indonesian seawater along the pathways associated with the Pacific-Indian hydraulic head difference. The results show that when both the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans are warm (positive NINO.WEST and negative DMI, the rainfall intensity over central Indonesia is strongest. This increase is explained by the relationship between the residence time of Indonesian seawater and the

  19. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I


    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  20. Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall

    G. B. Crosta


    Full Text Available Hazard assessment of shallow landslides represents an important aspect of land management in mountainous areas. Among all the methods proposed in the literature, physically based methods are the only ones that explicitly includes the dynamic factors that control landslide triggering (rainfall pattern, land-use. For this reason, they allow forecasting both the temporal and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Physically based methods for shallow landslides are based on the coupling of the infinite slope stability analysis with hydrological models. Three different grid-based distributed hydrological models are presented in this paper: a steady state model, a transient "piston-flow" wetting front model, and a transient diffusive model. A comparative test of these models was performed to simulate landslide occurred during a rainfall event (27–28 June 1997 that triggered hundreds of shallow landslides within Lecco province (central Southern Alps, Italy. In order to test the potential for a completely distributed model for rainfall-triggered landslides, radar detected rainfall intensity has been used. A new procedure for quantitative evaluation of distributed model performance is presented and used in this paper. The diffusive model results in the best model for the simulation of shallow landslide triggering after a rainfall event like the one that we have analysed. Finally, radar data available for the June 1997 event permitted greatly improving the simulation. In particular, radar data allowed to explain the non-uniform distribution of landslides within the study area.

  1. Variability in rainfall at monitoring stations and derivation of a long-term rainfall intensity record in the Grand Canyon Region, Arizona, USA

    Caster, Joshua; Sankey, Joel B.


    In this study, we examine rainfall datasets of varying temporal length, resolution, and spatial distribution to characterize rainfall depth, intensity, and seasonality for monitoring stations along the Colorado River within Marble and Grand Canyons. We identify maximum separation distances between stations at which rainfall measurements might be most useful for inferring rainfall characteristics at other locations. We demonstrate a method for applying relations between daily rainfall depth and intensity, from short-term high-resolution data to lower-resolution longer-term data, to synthesize a long-term record of daily rainfall intensity from 1950–2012. We consider the implications of our spatio-temporal characterization of rainfall for understanding local landscape change in sedimentary deposits and archaeological sites, and for better characterizing past and present rainfall and its potential role in overland flow erosion within the canyons. We find that rainfall measured at stations within the river corridor is spatially correlated at separation distances of tens of kilometers, and is not correlated at the large elevation differences that separate stations along the Colorado River from stations above the canyon rim. These results provide guidance for reasonable separation distances at which rainfall measurements at stations within the Grand Canyon region might be used to infer rainfall at other nearby locations along the river. Like other rugged landscapes, spatial variability between rainfall measured at monitoring stations appears to be influenced by canyon and rim physiography and elevation, with preliminary results suggesting the highest elevation landform in the region, the Kaibab Plateau, may function as an important orographic influence. Stations at specific locations within the canyons and along the river, such as in southern (lower) Marble Canyon and eastern (upper) Grand Canyon, appear to have strong potential to receive high-intensity rainfall that

  2. On extreme rainfall intensity increases with air temperature

    Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Gaal, Ladislav; Szolgay, Jan; Burlando, Paolo


    The water vapour holding capacity of air increases at about 7% per degree C according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This is one of the arguments why a warmer future atmosphere, being able to hold more moisture, will generate higher extreme precipitation intensities. However, several empirical studies have recently demonstrated an increase in extreme rain intensities with air temperature above CC rates, in the range 7-14% per degree C worldwide (called super-CC rates). This was observed especially for shorter duration rainfall, i.e. in hourly and finer resolution data (e.g. review in Westra et al., 2014). The super-CC rate was attributed to positive feedbacks between water vapour and the updraft dynamics in convective clouds and lateral supply (convergence) of moisture. In addition, mixing of storm types was shown to be potentially responsible for super-CC rates in empirical studies. Assuming that convective events are accompanied by lightning, we will show on a large rainfall dataset in Switzerland (30 year records of 10-min and 1-hr data from 59 stations) that while the average rate of increase in extreme rainfall intensity (95th percentile) is 6-7% in no-lightning events and 8-9% in lightning events, it is 11-13% per degree C when all events are combined (Molnar et al., 2015). These results are relevant for climate change studies which predict shifts in storm types in a warmer climate in some parts of the world. The observation that extreme rain intensity and air temperature are positively correlated has consequences for the stochastic modelling of rainfall. Most current stochastic models do not explicitly include a direct rain intensity-air temperature dependency beyond applying factors of change predicted by climate models to basic statistics of precipitation. Including this dependency explicitly in stochastic models will allow, for example in the nested modelling approach of Paschalis et al. (2014), the random cascade disaggregation routine to be

  3. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities.

    De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo


    Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).

  4. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities

    De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Coly, Adrien; Yeshitela, Kumelachew; Kombe, Wilbard; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou


    The intensity-duration-frequency curves are used in hydrology to express in a synthetic way, the link between the maximum rainfall height h and a generic duration d of a rainfall event, fixed a given return period T. Generally, IDF curves can be characterized by a bi-parameter power law: h(d,T) = a(T)dn where a(T), and n are the parameters that have to be estimated through a probabilistic approach. An intensity-duration-frequency analysis starts by gathering time series record of different durations and extracting annual extremes for each duration. The annual extreme data are then fitted by a probability distribution. The present study, carried out within the FP7-ENV-2010 CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for five case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania), Douala (Cameroon), Ouagadouogou (Burkina Faso) and Saint Louis (Senegal). The probability distribution chosen to fit the annual extreme data is the classic Gumbel distribution. However, for the case studies, only the maximum annual daily rainfall heights are available. Therefore, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1h, 3h, 6h, 12h), it is required to develop disaggregation techniques of the collected data, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties equal to the recorded data. The daily rainfalls were disaggregated using two models: short-time intensity disaggregation model (10', 30', 1h); cascade-based disaggregation model (3h, 6h, 12h). On the basis of disaggegation models and Gumbel distribution , the parameters of the IDF curves for the five test cities were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the illustrated procedure has been applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050 provided by the CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

  5. Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in the extratropical regions with high rainfall intensity

    Borodina, Aleksandra; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto


    Model projections of regional changes in heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model response in heavy rainfall to rising temperatures. We use spatial aggregation to reduce the major role of internal variability and evaluate the heavy rainfall response to warming temperatures with observations. We show that in the regions with high rainfall intensity and for which gridded observations exist, most of the models underestimate the historical scaling of heavy rainfall and the land fraction with significant positive heavy rainfall scalings during the historical period. The historical behavior is correlated with the projected heavy rainfall intensification across models allowing to apply an observational constraint, i.e., to calibrate multimodel ensembles with observations in order to narrow the range of projections. The constraint suggests a substantially stronger intensification of future heavy rainfall than the multimodel mean.

  6. Are extreme rainfall intensities more frequent? Analysis of trends in rainfall patterns relevant to urban drainage systems.

    De Toffol, S; Laghari, A N; Rauch, W


    The fact that climate change is affecting the intensity and frequency of rainfall is well accepted in the scientific community. This is backed by a multitude of reports on the basis of daily rainfall series analysis; however, little research is available for short duration intensities. Due to its significant influence on the behaviour of urban drainage, it is critical to investigate the changes in short duration rainfall intensities. In this study different intensities relevant for the urban drainage and the total rainfall per rain event are analysed. The trend is investigated using the Mann-Kendall test. The rainfall series analysed are from the alpine region Tyrol. The results present differences depending on the duration of the intensity and the series considered, however an increase in the number of extreme events is detectable for short durations for the most series.

  7. Estimating the exceedance probability of extreme rainfalls up to the probable maximum precipitation

    Nathan, Rory; Jordan, Phillip; Scorah, Matthew; Lang, Simon; Kuczera, George; Schaefer, Melvin; Weinmann, Erwin


    If risk-based criteria are used in the design of high hazard structures (such as dam spillways and nuclear power stations), then it is necessary to estimate the annual exceedance probability (AEP) of extreme rainfalls up to and including the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). This paper describes the development and application of two largely independent methods to estimate the frequencies of such extreme rainfalls. One method is based on stochastic storm transposition (SST), which combines the "arrival" and "transposition" probabilities of an extreme storm using the total probability theorem. The second method, based on "stochastic storm regression" (SSR), combines frequency curves of point rainfalls with regression estimates of local and transposed areal rainfalls; rainfall maxima are generated by stochastically sampling the independent variates, where the required exceedance probabilities are obtained using the total probability theorem. The methods are applied to two large catchments (with areas of 3550 km2 and 15,280 km2) located in inland southern Australia. Both methods were found to provide similar estimates of the frequency of extreme areal rainfalls for the two study catchments. The best estimates of the AEP of the PMP for the smaller and larger of the catchments were found to be 10-7 and 10-6, respectively, but the uncertainty of these estimates spans one to two orders of magnitude. Additionally, the SST method was applied to a range of locations within a meteorologically homogenous region to investigate the nature of the relationship between the AEP of PMP and catchment area.

  8. Modelling and Simulation of Seasonal Rainfall Using the Principle of Maximum Entropy

    Jonathan Borwein


    Full Text Available We use the principle of maximum entropy to propose a parsimonious model for the generation of simulated rainfall during the wettest three-month season at a typical location on the east coast of Australia. The model uses a checkerboard copula of maximum entropy to model the joint probability distribution for total seasonal rainfall and a set of two-parameter gamma distributions to model each of the marginal monthly rainfall totals. The model allows us to match the grade correlation coefficients for the checkerboard copula to the observed Spearman rank correlation coefficients for the monthly rainfalls and, hence, provides a model that correctly describes the mean and variance for each of the monthly totals and also for the overall seasonal total. Thus, we avoid the need for a posteriori adjustment of simulated monthly totals in order to correctly simulate the observed seasonal statistics. Detailed results are presented for the modelling and simulation of seasonal rainfall in the town of Kempsey on the mid-north coast of New South Wales. Empirical evidence from extensive simulations is used to validate this application of the model. A similar analysis for Sydney is also described.

  9. Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation

    Ghazavi, Reza; Moafi Rabori, Ali; Ahadnejad Reveshty, Mohsen


    Estimate design storm based on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves is an important parameter for hydrologic planning of urban areas. The main aim of this study was to estimate rainfall intensities of Zanjan city watershed based on overall relationship of rainfall IDF curves and appropriate model of hourly rainfall estimation (Sherman method, Ghahreman and Abkhezr method). Hydrologic and hydraulic impacts of rainfall IDF curves change in flood properties was evaluated via Stormw...

  10. Flooding from Intense Rainfall: an overview of project SINATRA

    Cloke, Hannah


    Project SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) is part of the UK NERC's Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) research programme which aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and flash floods through improved identification, characterisation and prediction of interacting meteorological, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes that contribute to flooding associated with high-intensity rainfall events. Extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. In addition there is no consensus on how to identify how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and un-gauged. Project SINATRA will: (1) Increase our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR by: assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR; making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods; and characterizing the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by

  11. Comparison of rainfall and stemflow peak intensities and infiltration patterns for a mature coastal forest in British Columbia, Canada

    van Meerveld, Ilja; Spencer, Sheena


    Most studies on stemflow have focused on the amount of stemflow in different forests or for different rainfall events. So far, few studies have looked at how stemflow intensity varies during rainfall events and how peak stemflow intensities compare to peak rainfall intensities. High stemflow intensities at the base of the tree, where roots and other preferential flow pathways are prevalent, may lead to faster and deeper infiltration of stemflow than rainfall and thus affect soil moisture dynamics and potentially also subsurface stormflow generation. We measured stemflow intensities for three Western hemlock, two Western red cedar, two Douglas-fir and one Birch tree in a mature coniferous forest in coastal British Columbia to determine how stemflow intensities were related to rainfall intensity. We sprayed a blue dye tracer on two Western hemlock trees (29 and 52 cm diameter at breast height (DBH)) to determine how stemflow water flows through the soil and to what depth it infiltrates. We also applied the blue dye tracer to an area between the trees to compare infiltration of stemflow with rainfall. Stemflow increased linearly with event total precipitation for all trees. The larger trees almost exclusively had funneling ratios (i.e. the volume of stemflow per unit basal area divided by the rainfall) smaller than one, regardless of species and event size. The funneling ratios for the small trees were generally larger for larger events (up to a funneling ratio of 20) but there was considerable scatter in this relation. Trees with a DBH clay layer but where roots were able to penetrate the clay layer, the infiltrating water flowed deeper into the soil and (almost) reached the soil-bedrock interface. Stemflow appeared to infiltrate deeper (122 cm) than rainfall (85 cm) but this difference was in part due to variations in maximum soil depth. These results suggest that even though stemflow is only a minor component of the water balance, the double funnelling of stemflow

  12. Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz


    In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

  13. Regional maximum rainfall analysis using L-moments at the Titicaca Lake drainage, Peru

    Fernández-Palomino, Carlos Antonio; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo Sven


    The present study investigates the application of the index flood L-moments-based regional frequency analysis procedure (RFA-LM) to the annual maximum 24-h rainfall (AM) of 33 rainfall gauge stations (RGs) to estimate rainfall quantiles at the Titicaca Lake drainage (TL). The study region was chosen because it is characterised by common floods that affect agricultural production and infrastructure. First, detailed quality analyses and verification of the RFA-LM assumptions were conducted. For this purpose, different tests for outlier verification, homogeneity, stationarity, and serial independence were employed. Then, the application of RFA-LM procedure allowed us to consider the TL as a single, hydrologically homogeneous region, in terms of its maximum rainfall frequency. That is, this region can be modelled by a generalised normal (GNO) distribution, chosen according to the Z test for goodness-of-fit, L-moments (LM) ratio diagram, and an additional evaluation of the precision of the regional growth curve. Due to the low density of RG in the TL, it was important to produce maps of the AM design quantiles estimated using RFA-LM. Therefore, the ordinary Kriging interpolation (OK) technique was used. These maps will be a useful tool for determining the different AM quantiles at any point of interest for hydrologists in the region.

  14. Multiresolution maximum intensity volume rendering by morphological adjunction pyramids

    Roerdink, Jos B.T.M.

    We describe a multiresolution extension to maximum intensity projection (MIP) volume rendering, allowing progressive refinement and perfect reconstruction. The method makes use of morphological adjunction pyramids. The pyramidal analysis and synthesis operators are composed of morphological 3-D

  15. Multiresolution Maximum Intensity Volume Rendering by Morphological Adjunction Pyramids

    Roerdink, Jos B.T.M.


    We describe a multiresolution extension to maximum intensity projection (MIP) volume rendering, allowing progressive refinement and perfect reconstruction. The method makes use of morphological adjunction pyramids. The pyramidal analysis and synthesis operators are composed of morphological 3-D

  16. An empirical formula to estimate rainfall intensity in Kupwara region of Kashmir valley, J and K, India

    Dar Abdul Qayoom


    Full Text Available Knowledge of rainfall extremes particularly their magnitude and frequency, as embodied in Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF relationships and IDF curves is fundamental to many engineering problems such as design of hydraulic structures, urban drainage system, water resources projects and many others. The objective of this study is to obtain IDF relationships and curves for the Kupwara region of Kashmir valley in Jammu and Kashmir, India. Three different frequency distributions namely the Gumbel distribution, the Pearson Type III distribution and the Log-Pearson Type III distribution were fitted to the rainfall data to obtain rainfall intensities for selected return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years and durations (0.16, 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. Regional constants in IDF relations were found using the Sherman Morrison method and results were compared based on the Chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Results obtained using all distributions showed a similar trend. However, the Pearson Type III distribution emerges to be the best fit for the rainfall data of the region. Results revealed that higher rainfall intensities have shorter durations. Maximum rainfall intensity 81.13 mm/hr as per the best fit relation occurs with a return period of 100 years for 0.16 hours duration.

  17. Evaluation of intense rainfall parameters interpolation methods for the Espírito Santo State

    José Eduardo Macedo Pezzopane


    Full Text Available Intense rainfalls are often responsible for the occurrence of undesirable processes in agricultural and forest areas, such as surface runoff, soil erosion and flooding. The knowledge of intense rainfall spatial distribution is important to agricultural watershed management, soil conservation and to the design of hydraulic structures. The present paper evaluated methods of spatial interpolation of the intense rainfall parameters (“K”, “a”, “b” and “c” for the Espírito Santo State, Brazil. Were compared real intense rainfall rates with those calculated by the interpolated intense rainfall parameters, considering different durations and return periods. Inverse distance to the 5th power IPD5 was the spatial interpolation method with better performance to spatial interpolated intense rainfall parameters.

  18. Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments

    Amina Shahzadi


    Full Text Available The estimation of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall has immense importance to make decisions about hydraulic structures like spillways, dikes and dams etc The main objective of this study is to get the best fit distributions for annual maximum rainfall data on regional basis in order to estimate the extreme rainfall events (quantiles for various return periods. This study is carried out using index flood method using L-moments by Hosking and wallis (1997. The study is based on 23 sites of rainfall which are divided into three homogeneous regions. The collective results of L-moment ratio diagram, Z-statistic and AWD values show the GLO, GEV and GNO to be best fit for all three regions and in addition PE3 for region 3. On the basis of relative RMSE, for region 1 and region 2, GLO, GEV and GNO are producing approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While GNO is producing less relative RMSE for large return periods of 500 and 1000. So for large return periods GNO could be best distribution. For region 3 GLO, GEV, GNO and PE3 are having approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While for large return periods of 500 and 1000 PE3 could be best on basis of less relative RMSE.

  19. A method for estimating maximum static rainfall retention in pebble mulches used for soil moisture conservation

    Peng, Hongtao; Lei, Tingwu; Jiang, Zhiyun; Horton, Robert


    Mulching of agricultural fields and gardens with pebbles has long been practiced to conserve soil moisture in some semi-arid regions with low precipitation. Rainfall interception by the pebble mulch itself is an important part of the computation of the water balance for the pebble mulched fields and gardens. The mean equivalent diameter (MED) was used to characterize the pebble size. The maximum static rainfall retention in pebble mulch is based on the water penetrating into the pores of pebbles, the water adhering to the outside surfaces of pebbles and the water held between pebbles of the mulch. Equations describing the water penetrating into the pores of pebbles and the water adhering to the outside surface of pebbles are constructed based on the physical properties of water and the pebble characteristics. The model for the water between pebbles of the mulch is based on the basic equation to calculate the water bridge volume and the basic coordination number model. A method to calculate the maximum static rainfall retention in the pebble mulch is presented. Laboratory rain simulation experiments were performed to test the model with measured data. Paired sample t-tests showed no significant differences between the values calculated with the method and the measured data. The model is ready for testing on field mulches.

  20. Temporal Variation of Rainfall Intensity, Rainfall Partitioning and its Correlation with Meteorological Elements of Eastern India

    Tripathi, P.; Chaturvedi, A.


    Rainfall plays a vital role in Indian agriculture hence economy of the country, but very crucial and risky due to its erratic/ unpredictable behavior and uneven distribution. Since monsoonal vagaries in eastern India are very frequent hence involve a great risk in Argil. Production and quality of atmosphere at desired level. Though prediction of onset of monsoon with total quantum of rainfall is available through different agencies but still not accurate and not in consonance of observed behavior. Therefore, surface weather data of meteorological elements needs to be critically examined for prediction of onset of monsoon, rainfall rate and its variability with space and time and strategy to cope the uncertainty of risk (drought and flood etc) needs to be evolved. In the present study an analysis of rainfall of Eastern India (Eastern U.P., Bihar and Jharkhand) has been made for rainfall partitioning, rate of rainfall and its variation with space and time. A location specific six parameter model were developed with multiple correlation technique to predict the medium and long range rainfall forecast and found 65% accurate for long range and 79% accurate to medium range. This will not only help to predict the accurate rainfall but also provides a clue for assessment of quality of rainfall under different aerosol levels of atmosphere which ultimately led to link designers with radio wave propagation. In addition, correlation of physical variables of atmosphere like vapor pressure deficit, dew point and relative humidity were also made with quantum of rainfall, rate of rainfall and its quantitative characteristics in the study area as to understand the mechanism behavior of atmosphere for space research.

  1. Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations in Kerala

    V Sasi Kumar; S Sampath; P V S S K Vinayak; R Harikumar


    Rainfall intensities measured at a few stations in Kerala during 2001 –2005 using a disdrometer were found to be in reasonable agreement with the total rainfall measured using a manual rain gauge. The temporal distributions of rainfall intensity at different places and during different months show that rainfall is of low intensity (> 10 mm/hr),65%to 90%of the time.This could be an indication of the relative prevalence of stratiform and cumuliform clouds.Rainfall was of intensity > 5 mm/hr for more than 95%of the time in Kochi in July 2002,which was a month seriously deficient in rainfall,indicating that the deficiency was probably due to the relative absence of cumuliform clouds.Cumulative distribution graphs are also plotted and fitted with the Weibull distribution.The fit parameters do not appear to have any consistent pattern. The higher intensities also contributed signi ficantly to total rainfall most of the time,except in Munnar (a hill station). In this analysis also,the rainfall in Kochi in July 2002 was found to have less presence of high intensities. This supports the hypothesis that the rainfall de ficiency was probably caused by the absence of conditions that favoured the formation of cumuliform clouds.

  2. Maximum host survival at intermediate parasite infection intensities.

    Martin Stjernman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although parasitism has been acknowledged as an important selective force in the evolution of host life histories, studies of fitness effects of parasites in wild populations have yielded mixed results. One reason for this may be that most studies only test for a linear relationship between infection intensity and host fitness. If resistance to parasites is costly, however, fitness may be reduced both for hosts with low infection intensities (cost of resistance and high infection intensities (cost of parasitism, such that individuals with intermediate infection intensities have highest fitness. Under this scenario one would expect a non-linear relationship between infection intensity and fitness. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus in southern Sweden, we investigated the relationship between the intensity of infection of its blood parasite (Haemoproteus majoris and host survival to the following winter. Presence and intensity of parasite infections were determined by microscopy and confirmed using PCR of a 480 bp section of the cytochrome-b-gene. While a linear model suggested no relationship between parasite intensity and survival (F = 0.01, p = 0.94, a non-linear model showed a significant negative quadratic effect (quadratic parasite intensity: F = 4.65, p = 0.032; linear parasite intensity F = 4.47, p = 0.035. Visualization using the cubic spline technique showed maximum survival at intermediate parasite intensities. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that failing to recognize the potential for a non-linear relationship between parasite infection intensity and host fitness may lead to the potentially erroneous conclusion that the parasite is harmless to its host. Here we show that high parasite intensities indeed reduced survival, but this effect was masked by reduced survival for birds heavily suppressing their parasite intensities. Reduced survival among hosts with low

  3. Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

    Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel


    Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

  4. Regional analysis of annual maximum rainfall using TL-moments method

    Shabri, Ani Bin; Daud, Zalina Mohd; Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd


    Information related to distributions of rainfall amounts are of great importance for designs of water-related structures. One of the concerns of hydrologists and engineers is the probability distribution for modeling of regional data. In this study, a novel approach to regional frequency analysis using L-moments is revisited. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the TL-moments method is employed. The results from both methods were then compared. The analysis was based on daily annual maximum rainfall data from 40 stations in Selangor Malaysia. TL-moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized logistic (GLO) distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. TL-moment ratio diagram and Z-test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the two approaches showed that the L-moments and TL-moments produced equivalent results. GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the most suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation was used for performance evaluation, and it showed that the method of TL-moments was more efficient for lower quantile estimation compared with the L-moments.

  5. Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

    Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun


    Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971–2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of ‑9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7–7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

  6. Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Duration on the First Flush from Parking Lots

    Kenneth C. Schiff


    Full Text Available Urban stormwater with large impervious (paved areas often produces runoff with a variety of contaminants. Although southern California is among the most urbanized coastal areas in the United States, the effect of rainfall variations on washoff efficiency of contaminants from pervious and impervious surfaces is largely unknown. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of varying rainfall intensities and duration on runoff composition from highly impervious parking lots. In order to control the tremendous natural variability in precipitation of the arid climate in southern California, rainfall simulators were used to generate and quantify pollutant washoff at changing intensities and durations. Washoff of suspended solids, total and dissolved trace metals, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons was strongly inversely correlated with rainfall duration. Rainfall intensity only affected washoff at the smallest measured duration; higher intensities produced decreased concentrations. The effect of rainfall duration was a reflection of the first flush observed in pollutographs for every duration and intensity sampled. Peak concentrations, up to an order of magnitude higher than concentrations later in the event, occurred during the first 10 min after the onset of rainfall. Longer simulated storms effectively diluted the first flush.

  7. Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

    Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo


    This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

  8. Rainfall intensity switches ecohydrological runoff/runon redistribution patterns in dryland vegetation patches.

    Magliano, Patricio N; Breshears, David D; Fernández, Roberto J; Jobbágy, Esteban G


    Effectively managing net primary productivity in drylands for grazing and other uses depends on understanding how limited rainfall input is redistributed by runoff and runon among vegetation patches, particularly for patches that contrast between lesser and greater amounts of vegetation cover. Due in part to data limitations, ecohydrologists generally have focused on rainfall event size to characterize water redistribution processes. Here we use soil moisture data from a semiarid woodland to highlight how, when event size is controlled and runoff and interception are negligible at the stand scale, rainfall intensity drives the relationship between water redistribution and canopy and soil patch attributes. Horizontal water redistribution variability increased with rainfall intensity and differed between patches with contrasting vegetation cover. Sparsely vegetated patches gained relatively more water during lower intensity events, whereas densely vegetated ones gained relatively more water during higher intensity events. Consequently, range managers need to account for the distribution of rainfall event intensity, as well as event size, to assess the consequences of climate variability and change on net primary productivity. More generally, our results suggest that rainfall intensity needs to be considered in addition to event size to understand vegetation patch dynamics in drylands.

  9. A distributed model for slope stability analysis using radar detected rainfall intensity

    Leoni, L.; Rossi, G.; Catani, F.


    The term shallow landslides is widely used in literature to describe a slope movement of limited size that mainly develops in soils up to a maximum of a few meters. Shallow landslides are usually triggered by heavy rainfall because, as the water starts to infiltrate in the soil, the pore-water pressure increases so that the shear strength of the soil is reduced leading to slope failure. We have developed a distributed hydrological-geotechnical model for the forecasting of the temporal and spatial distribution of shallow landslides to be used as a warning system for civil protection purpose. The model uses radar detected rainfall intensity as the input for the hydrological simulation of the infiltration. Using the rainfall pattern detected by the radar is in fact possible to dynamically control the redistribution of groundwater pressure associated with transient infiltration of rain so as to infer the slope stability of the studied area. The model deals with both saturated and unsaturated conditions taking into account the effect of soil suction when the soil is not completely saturated. Two pilot sites have been chosen to develop and test this model: the Armea basin (Liguria, Italy) and the Ischia Island (Campania, Italy). In recent years several severe rainstorms have occurred in both these areas. In at least two cases these have triggered numerous shallow landslides that have caused victims and damaged roads, buildings and agricultural activities. In its current stage, the basic basin-scale model applied for predicting the probable location of shallow landslides involves several stand-alone components. The solution suggested by Iverson for the Richards equation is used to estimate the transient groundwater pressure head distribution according to radar detected rainfall intensity. A soil depth prediction scheme and a limit-equilibrium infinite slope stability algorithm are used to calculate the distributed factor of safety (FS) at different depths and to record

  10. Flood risk reduction and flow buffering as ecosystem services - Part 2: Land use and rainfall intensity effects in Southeast Asia

    van Noordwijk, Meine; Tanika, Lisa; Lusiana, Betha


    Watersheds buffer the temporal pattern of river flow relative to the temporal pattern of rainfall. This ecosystem service is inherent to geology and climate, but buffering also responds to human use and misuse of the landscape. Buffering can be part of management feedback loops if salient, credible and legitimate indicators are used. The flow persistence parameter Fp in a parsimonious recursive model of river flow (Part 1, van Noordwijk et al., 2017) couples the transmission of extreme rainfall events (1 - Fp), to the annual base-flow fraction of a watershed (Fp). Here we compare Fp estimates from four meso-scale watersheds in Indonesia (Cidanau, Way Besai and Bialo) and Thailand (Mae Chaem), with varying climate, geology and land cover history, at a decadal timescale. The likely response in each of these four to variation in rainfall properties (including the maximum hourly rainfall intensity) and land cover (comparing scenarios with either more or less forest and tree cover than the current situation) was explored through a basic daily water-balance model, GenRiver. This model was calibrated for each site on existing data, before being used for alternative land cover and rainfall parameter settings. In both data and model runs, the wet-season (3-monthly) Fp values were consistently lower than dry-season values for all four sites. Across the four catchments Fp values decreased with increasing annual rainfall, but specific aspects of watersheds, such as the riparian swamp (peat soils) in Cidanau reduced effects of land use change in the upper watershed. Increasing the mean rainfall intensity (at constant monthly totals for rainfall) around the values considered typical for each landscape was predicted to cause a decrease in Fp values by between 0.047 (Bialo) and 0.261 (Mae Chaem). Sensitivity of Fp to changes in land use change plus changes in rainfall intensity depends on other characteristics of the watersheds, and generalisations made on the basis of one or two

  11. A satellite rainfall retrieval technique over northern Algeria based on the probability of rainfall intensities classification from MSG-SEVIRI

    Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane


    In this paper, an algorithm based on the probability of rainfall intensities classification for rainfall estimation from Meteosat Second Generation/Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (MSG-SEVIRI) has been developed. The classification scheme uses various spectral parameters of SEVIRI that provide information about cloud top temperature and optical and microphysical cloud properties. The presented method is developed and trained for the north of Algeria. The calibration of the method is carried out using as a reference rain classification fields derived from radar for rainy season from November 2006 to March 2007. Rainfall rates are assigned to rain areas previously identified and classified according to the precipitation formation processes. The comparisons between satellite-derived precipitation estimates and validation data show that the developed scheme performs reasonably well. Indeed, the correlation coefficient presents a significant level (r:0.87). The values of POD, POFD and FAR are 80%, 13% and 25%, respectively. Also, for a rainfall estimation of about 614 mm, the RMSD, Bias, MAD and PD indicate 102.06(mm), 2.18(mm), 68.07(mm) and 12.58, respectively.

  12. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    A. W. Western


    Full Text Available The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the coefficient of efficiency for the fit to the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals across all days at a site. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  13. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    Western, A. W.; Anderson, B.; Siriwardena, L.; Chiew, F. H. S.; Seed, A.; Blöschl, G.


    The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min) rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm) is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs) in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the coefficient of efficiency for the fit to the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals) across all days at a site. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude) and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  14. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    A. W. Western


    Full Text Available The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the efficiency of prediction of the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  15. Design and application of a drip-type rainfall simulator adapted to steep topography and low intensity-rainfall characteristics in the Coastal Range of Southern Chile

    Mohr, Christian; Anton, Huber


    leakage of overland flow leading the runoff to a cemented trough. The experiments were conducted until a steady state infiltration rate was observed or the runoff ceased. The runoff samples are taken manually in intervals of 5 or 10 min depending on the simulated intensity and amount of runoff. All bottled samples were filtered to determine the sediment concentration. To test the system's effectiveness a pilot-study was conducted in a granitic soil catchment. The obtained values of the infiltration rate indicate that soil physical properties in this area facilitate rapid infiltration and slope did not show main influence. The sediment concentration showed high variability due to heterogeneity of surface and soil characteristics. In a succeeding study 36 rainfall simulations prior to clear-cuts during dry summer-season and rainy winter-season were carried out to determine the effect of both silvicultural practices on micro-scale. Soil hydrological response showed preferential flow patterns and variable infiltration-rates due to topsoil disturbance in the course of previous timber-harvests and differences in soil depth, hydrophobic organic layers and imbedded rocks. Maximum steady state infiltration rates ranged between 7.3 and 32.3 mm/h. In contrast to the expected results, maximum infiltration occurred at steep slopes. Only little sediment transport was measured. Only under high precipitation on steep slopes a moderate sediment transport (0.074 g/l) was documented. Post clear-cut infiltration experiments will be conducted in Jan.-March 2010. Furthermore, a modified tipping-bucket-device will be installed as a runoff collector-device to gain better temporal resolution.

  16. Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

    Nandargi, S.; Mulye, S. S.


    There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI) and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better. PMID:22654646

  17. Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

    S. Nandargi


    Full Text Available There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better.

  18. Combining spray nozzle simulators with meshes: characterization of rainfall intensity and drop properties

    Carvalho, Sílvia C. P.; de Lima, João L. M. P.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.


    Rainfall simulators can be a powerful tool to increase our understanding of hydrological and geomorphological processes. Nevertheless, rainfall simulators' design and operation might be rather demanding, for achieving specific rainfall intensity distributions and drop characteristics. The pressurized simulators have some advantages over the non-pressurized simulators: drops do not rely on gravity to reach terminal velocity, but are sprayed out under pressure; pressurized simulators also yield a broad range of drop sizes in comparison with drop-formers simulators. The main purpose of this study was to explore in the laboratory the potential of combining spray nozzle simulators with meshes in order to change rainfall characteristics (rainfall intensity and diameters and fall speed of drops). Different types of spray nozzles were tested, such as single full-cone and multiple full-cone nozzles. The impact of the meshes on the simulated rain was studied by testing different materials (i.e. plastic and steel meshes), square apertures and wire thicknesses, and different vertical distances between the nozzle and the meshes underneath. The diameter and fall speed of the rain drops were measured using a Laser Precipitation Monitor (Thies Clima). The rainfall intensity range and coefficients of uniformity of the sprays and the drop size distribution, fall speed and kinetic energy were analysed. Results show that when meshes intercept drop trajectories the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity and the drop size distribution are affected. As the spray nozzles generate typically small drop sizes and narrow drop size distributions, meshes can be used to promote the formation of bigger drops and random their landing positions.

  19. Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Gradient on Runoff and Soil Moisture Content on Different Growing Stages of Spring Maize

    Wenbin Mu


    Full Text Available The rainfall-runoff process (RRP is an important part of hydrologic process. There is an effective measure to study RRP through artificial rainfall simulation. This paper describes a study on three growing stages (jointing stage, tasseling stage, and mature stage of spring maize in which simulated rainfall events were used to study the effects of various factors (rainfall intensity and slope gradient on the RRP. The RRP was tested with three different rainfall intensities (0.67, 1.00, and 1.67 mm/min and subjected to three different slopes (5°, 15°, and 20° so as to study RRP characteristics in semiarid regions. Regression analysis was used to study the results of this test. The following key results were obtained: (1 With the increase in rainfall intensity and slope, the increasing relationship with rainfall duration, overland flow, and cumulative runoff, respectively, complied with logarithmic and quadratic functions before reaching stable runoff in each growing stage of spring maize; (2 The runoff coefficient increased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope in each growing stages of spring maize. The relationship between runoff coefficient, slope, rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage was multivariate and nonlinear; (3 The runoff lag time decreased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope within the same growing stage. In addition, the relationship between runoff lag time, slope, rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage could also be expressed by a multivariate nonlinear equation; (4 The descent rate of soil infiltration rate curve increased with the increased rainfall intensity and slope in the same growing stage. Furthermore, by comparing the Kostiakov, Horton, and Philip models, it was found that the Horton infiltration model was the best for estimating soil infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration under the condition of test.

  20. Rainfall intensity and phosphorus source effects on phosphorus transport in surface runoff from soil trays.

    Shigaki, Francirose; Sharpley, Andrew; Prochnow, Luis Ignacio


    Phosphorus runoff from agricultural fields amended with mineral fertilizers and manures has been linked to freshwater eutrophication. A rainfall simulation study was conducted to evaluate the effects of different rainfall intensities and P sources differing in water soluble P (WSP) concentration on P transport in runoff from soil trays packed with a Berks loam and grassed with annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.). Triple superphosphate (TSP; 79% WSP), low-grade super single phosphate (LGSSP; 50% WSP), North Carolina rock phosphate (NCRP; 0.5% WSP) and swine manure (SM; 70% WSP), were broadcast (100 kg total P ha-1) and rainfall applied at 25, 50 and 75 mm h-1 1, 7, 21, and 56 days after P source application. The concentration of dissolved reactive (DRP), particulate (PP), and total P (TP) was significantly (Prunoff with a rainfall intensity of 75 than 25 mm h-1 for all P sources. Further, runoff DRP increased as P source WSP increased, with runoff from a 50 mm h-1 rain 1 day after source application having a DRP concentration of 0.25 mg L-1 for NCRP and 28.21 mg L-1 for TSP. In contrast, the proportion of runoff TP as PP was greater with low (39% PP for NCRP) than high WSP sources (4% PP for TSP) averaged for all rainfall intensities. The increased PP transport is attributed to the detachment and transport of undissolved P source particles during runoff. These results show that P source water solubility and rainfall intensity can influence P transport in runoff, which is important in evaluating the long-term risks of P source application on P transport in surface runoff.

  1. Radar Estimation of Intense Rainfall Rates through Adaptive Calibration of the Z-R Relation

    Andrea Libertino


    Full Text Available Rainfall intensity estimation from weather radar is still significantly uncertain, due to local anomalies, radar beam attenuation, inappropriate calibration of the radar reflectivity factor (Z to rainfall rate (R relationship, and sampling errors. The aim of this work is to revise the use of the power-law equation commonly adopted to relate radar reflectivity and rainfall rate to increase the estimation quality in the presence of intense rainfall rates. We introduce a quasi real-time procedure for an adaptive in space and time estimation of the Z-R relation. The procedure is applied in a comprehensive case study, which includes 16 severe rainfall events in the north-west of Italy. The study demonstrates that the technique outperforms the classical estimation methods for most of the analysed events. The determination coefficient improves by up to 30% and the bias values for stratiform events decreases by up to 80% of the values obtained with the classical, non-adaptive, Z-R relations. The proposed procedure therefore shows significant potential for operational uses.

  2. Rainfall intensity effects on removal of fecal indicator bacteria from solid dairy manure applied over grass-covered soil

    Blaustein, Ryan A., E-mail: [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States); Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Hill, Robert L. [Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Micallef, Shirley A. [Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Shelton, Daniel R.; Pachepsky, Yakov A. [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States)


    The rainfall-induced release of pathogens and microbial indicators from land-applied manure and their subsequent removal with runoff and infiltration precedes the impairment of surface and groundwater resources. It has been assumed that rainfall intensity and changes in intensity during rainfall do not affect microbial removal when expressed as a function of rainfall depth. The objective of this work was to test this assumption by measuring the removal of Escherichia coli, enterococci, total coliforms, and chloride ion from dairy manure applied in soil boxes containing fescue, under 3, 6, and 9 cm h{sup −1} of rainfall. Runoff and leachate were collected at increasing time intervals during rainfall, and post-rainfall soil samples were taken at 0, 2, 5, and 10 cm depths. Three kinetic-based models were fitted to the data on manure-constituent removal with runoff. Rainfall intensity appeared to have positive effects on rainwater partitioning to runoff, and removal with this effluent type occurred in two stages. While rainfall intensity generally did not impact the parameters of runoff-removal models, it had significant, inverse effects on the numbers of bacteria remaining in soil after rainfall. As rainfall intensity and soil profile depth increased, the numbers of indicator bacteria tended to decrease. The cumulative removal of E. coli from manure exceeded that of enterococci, especially in the form of removal with infiltration. This work may be used to improve the parameterization of models for bacteria removal with runoff and to advance estimations of depths of bacteria removal with infiltration, both of which are critical to risk assessment of microbial fate and transport in the environment. - Highlights: • Release and removal of indicator bacteria from manure was evaluated in soil boxes. • Rainfall intensity did not impact runoff-removal kinetics in three tested models. • Rainfall intensity had positive/inverse effects on bacterial release to runoff

  3. Rainfall intensity-duration threshold and erosion competence of debris flows in four areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

    Ma, Chao; Wang, Yujie; Hu, Kaiheng; Du, Cui; Yang, Wentao


    Debris flows in the Wenchuan seismic region have caused human casualties and severe damage to local infrastructure. Consequently, the triggering rainfall threshold and erosion capability of post-quake debris flows has become an important research topic worldwide. In this study, we analyze five years of rainstorms and debris flow data from four typical earthquake-hit regions in order to examine the local rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds and debris supply conditions. It was found that debris flow events in the four seismic areas exhibited different I-D thresholds, related to local mean annual hourly precipitation and debris flow supply conditions. The I-D thresholds, normalized by mean annual maximum hourly rainfall, illustrate that post-quake rainfall thresholds were reduced by at least 30% compared to pre-quake levels. Regression analysis revealed a clear linear relationship between the debris supply condition and the empirical coefficient, α, of the I-D equation. This means that rainfall thresholds of post-quake debris flows in different areas are distinctive and are strongly affected by sediment volume. Different relationships between the entrainment rate and the debris volume per watershed area and its product with the channel gradient illustrate that stream sediments in Yingxiu and Dujiangyan are more eroded, and that local debris flows might persist over a shorter time than in Qingping and Beichuan in the future. Finally, debris flows in the studied area exhibit no tendency of reduction in erosion competence entrainment rate, as found in Taiwan, which might be indicative of a higher entrainment rate persisting for a longer time.

  4. Effects of rainfall intensity and intermittency on woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture in dryland ecosystems

    Zhang, Ding-Hai; Li, Xin-Rong; Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Chen, Yong-Le


    Identifying the relationship between the stochastic daily rainfall regime and the dynamics of plants and soil moisture is fundamental for the sustainable management of dryland ecosystems in a context of global climate change. An eco-hydrological model that couples the dynamics of woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture (typically with a depth interval of 30-150 cm) was used to investigate the effect of stochastic intensity and the intermittency of precipitation on soil moisture in this deep interval, which affects woody vegetation cover. Our results suggest that the precipitation intensity and intermittency play an important role in the dynamics of wood vegetation cover and deep soil moisture. In arid and semiarid regions, as the annual precipitation increased, the rate of woody vegetation cover increased as a power-law function, and the deep soil moisture increased exponentially. For a given annual rainfall, there were positive correlations between the rainfall intensity (or rainfall intermittency) and both the woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture. The positive correlations between wood vegetation cover and both rainfall intensity and intermittency may decrease with increases in the precipitation intensity or precipitation intermittency. The positive correlations between deep soil moisture and both rainfall intensity and rainfall intermittency increase as the precipitation intensity or precipitation intermittency increases. Moreover, these positive correlations may increase with increases in the mean annual rainfall. Our results emphasize the importance of daily precipitation variations in controlling the responses of woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture to climate variations in arid and semiarid regions. Our model can aid the understanding of rainfall processes and indicates that increases in rainfall intensity or rainfall intermittency may lead to an increase in woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture given an invariable annual

  5. Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity in Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Worku, L. Y.


    Extreme rainfall events are major problems in Ethiopia with the resulting floods that usually could cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, infrastructure, disruption to human activities, loss of property, loss of lives and disease outbreak. The aim of this study was to explore the likely changes of precipitation extreme changes due to future climate change. The study specifically focuses to understand the future climate change impact on variability of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency in Upper Blue Nile basin. Precipitations data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been used in the study are HadCM3 and CGCM3. Rainfall frequency analysis was carried out to estimate quantile with different return periods. Probability Weighted Method (PWM) selected estimation of parameter distribution and L-Moment Ratio Diagrams (LMRDs) used to find the best parent distribution for each station. Therefore, parent distributions for derived from frequency analysis are Generalized Logistic (GLOG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma & Pearson III (P3) parent distribution. After analyzing estimated quantile simple disaggregation model was applied in order to find sub daily rainfall data. Finally the disaggregated rainfall is fitted to find IDF curve and the result shows in most parts of the basin rainfall intensity expected to increase in the future. As a result of the two GCM outputs, the study indicates there will be likely increase of precipitation extremes over the Blue Nile basin due to the changing climate. This study should be interpreted with caution as the GCM model outputs in this part of the world have huge uncertainty.

  6. Influence of maximum decking charge on intensity of blasting vibration


    Based on the character of short-time non-stationary random signal, the relationship between the maximum decking charge and energy distribution of blasting vibration signals was investigated by means of the wavelet packet method. Firstly, the characteristics of wavelet transform and wavelet packet analysis were described. Secondly, the blasting vibration signals were analyzed by wavelet packet based on software MATLAB, and the change of energy distribution curve at different frequency bands were obtained. Finally, the law of energy distribution of blasting vibration signals changing with the maximum decking charge was analyzed. The results show that with the increase of decking charge, the ratio of the energy of high frequency to total energy decreases, the dominant frequency bands of blasting vibration signals tend towards low frequency and blasting vibration does not depend on the maximum decking charge.

  7. Assessing Climate change Impacts to Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves over the Florida Panhandle &Peninsula

    Ghosh, D. K.; Wang, D.; Obeysekera, J.; Hagen, S. C.


    The type, amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall are being directly influenced and altered due to potential climate changes. Consideration should be given to a revision of the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve, developed based on the historical rainfall data, for storm water drainage design and flood control facilities. Proper adaptation by quantifying the potential effects of climate changes is one of the major ways to reduce vulnerability. As a result, updating IDF curves based on the future climate condition is very important for managing the hydraulic structures. In this study, the climate change impact to rainfall IDF curves over the Florida panhandle and peninsula are assessed using the COAPS Regional Downscaling data from the Florida Climate Institute. The COAPS Land-Atmosphere Regional Ensemble Climate Change Experiment for the Southeast United States at 10-km resolution consists of three regional climate models (RCM) by downscaling the general circulation models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM (GFDL). The RCMs have been performed for the historical simulations (1969-1999) and the future projections (2038-2070) under the AR4 A2 emissions scenario. In this study, more than 30-years of hourly precipitation data are gathered from 57 weather stations in Florida. The performance of the RCMs is evaluated by comparing historical simulations with observations. The parameters of generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions including location, scale, and shape parameters are mapped for the period of 1969-1999 and 2038-2070. The spatial distribution map of rainfall intensity under various durations and return periods will be presented. The response on the Florida panhandle will be compared and contrasted with that of the larger peninsula. These maps will provide insight that can lead to a useful engineering tool for designing the

  8. [Characteristics of nutrient loss by runoff in sloping arable land of yellow-brown under different rainfall intensities].

    Chen, Ling; Liu, De-Fu; Song, Lin-Xu; Cui, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Gei


    In order to investigate the loss characteristics of N and P through surface flow and interflow under different rainfall intensities, a field experiment was conducted on the sloping arable land covered by typical yellow-brown soils inXiangxi River watershed by artificial rainfall. The results showed that the discharge of surface flow, total runoff and sediment increased with the increase of rain intensity, while the interflow was negatively correlated with rain intensity under the same total rainfall. TN, DN and DP were all flushed at the very beginning in surface flow underdifferent rainfall intensities; TP fluctuated and kept consistent in surface flow without obvious downtrend. While TN, DN and DP in interflow kept relatively stable in the whole runoff process, TP was high at the early stage, then rapidly decreased with time and kept steady finally. P was directly influenced by rainfall intensity, its concentration in the runoff increased with the increase of the rainfall intensity, the average concentration of N and P both exceeded the threshold of eutrophication of freshwater. The higher the amount of P loss was, the higher the rain intensity. The change of N loss was the opposite. The contribution rate of TN loss carried by surface flow increased from 36.5% to 57.6% with the increase of rainfall intensity, but surface flow was the primary form of P loss which contributed above 90.0%. Thus, it is crucial to control interflow in order to reduce N loss. In addition, measures should be taken to effectively manage soil erosion to mitigate P loss. The proportion of dissolved nitrogen in surface flow elevated with the decrease of rainfall intensity, but in interflow, dissolved form was predominant. P was exported mainly in the form of particulate under different rainfall intensities and runoff conditions.

  9. Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

    Daniel R. Dourte


    Full Text Available The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. During the last 30 years (1985–2014, there has been a significant change (53% increase in the number of extreme rainfall days (>152.4 mm/day and there have been significant decreases in the number of moderate intensity (12.7–25.4 mm/day and heavy (25.4–76.2 mm/day rainfall days in the Southeastern U.S., when compared to the previous 30-year period (1955–1984. There have also been significant decreases in the return period of months in which greater than half of the monthly total rain occurred in a single day; this is an original, stakeholder-developed rainfall intensity metric. The variability in spring and summer rainfall increased during the last 30 years, but winter and fall showed less variability in seasonal totals in the last 30 years. In agricultural systems, rainfall is one of the leading factors affecting yield variability; so it can be expected that more variable rainfall and more intense rain events could bring new challenges to agricultural production. However, these changes can also present opportunities for producers who are taking measures to adjust management strategies to make their systems more resilient to increased rain intensity and variability.

  10. Untreated runoff quality from roof and road surfaces in a low intensity rainfall climate.

    Charters, Frances J; Cochrane, Thomas A; O'Sullivan, Aisling D


    Sediment and heavy metals in stormwater runoff are key pollutants of urban waterways, and their presence in stormwater is driven by climatic factors such as rainfall intensity. This study describes the total suspended solids (TSS) and heavy metal concentrations found in runoff from four different urban surfaces within a residential/institutional catchment, in a climate where rainfall is typically of low intensity (runoff quality from a compilation of international studies. The road runoff had the highest TSS concentrations, while copper and galvanized roof runoff had the highest copper and zinc concentrations, respectively. Pollutant concentrations were found to be significantly different between surfaces; quantification and prediction of pollutant contributions from urban surfaces should thus take account of the different surface materials, instead of being aggregated into more generalized categories such as land use. The TSS and heavy metal concentrations were found to be at the low to medium end of ranges observed internationally, except for total copper and zinc concentrations generated by dissolution of copper and galvanized roofing material respectively; these concentrations were at least as high as those reported internationally. TSS wash-off from the roofs was seen to be a source-limited process, where all available TSS is washed off during the rain event despite the low intensity rainfall, whereas both road TSS and heavy metals wash-off from roof and road surfaces appeared to all be transport-limited and therefore some carryover of pollutants occurs between rain events. A first flush effect was seen from most surfaces for TSS, but not for heavy metals. This study demonstrates that in low intensity rainfall climates, quantification of untreated runoff quality from key individual surface types in a catchment are needed to enable development of targeted and appropriately sized stormwater treatment systems.

  11. What are the best covariates for developing non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship?

    Agilan, V.; Umamahesh, N. V.


    Present infrastructure design is primarily based on rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves with so-called stationary assumption. However, in recent years, the extreme precipitation events are increasing due to global climate change and creating non-stationarity in the series. Based on recent theoretical developments in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), recent studies proposed a methodology for developing non-stationary rainfall IDF curve by incorporating trend in the parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using Time covariate. But, the covariate Time may not be the best covariate and it is important to analyze all possible covariates and find the best covariate to model non-stationarity. In this study, five physical processes, namely, urbanization, local temperature changes, global warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are used as covariates. Based on these five covariates and their possible combinations, sixty-two non-stationary GEV models are constructed. In addition, two non-stationary GEV models based on Time covariate and one stationary GEV model are also constructed. The best model for each duration rainfall series is chosen based on the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). From the findings of this study, it is observed that the local processes (i.e., Urbanization, local temperature changes) are the best covariate for short duration rainfall and global processes (i.e., Global warming, ENSO cycle and IOD) are the best covariate for the long duration rainfall of the Hyderabad city, India. Furthermore, the covariate Time is never qualified as the best covariate. In addition, the identified best covariates are further used to develop non-stationary rainfall IDF curves of the Hyderabad city. The proposed methodology can be applied to other situations to develop the non-stationary IDF curves based on the best covariate.


    G. M. J. HASAN


    Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

  13. Maximum Likelihood Localization of Radiation Sources with unknown Source Intensity

    Baidoo-Williams, Henry E


    In this paper, we consider a novel and robust maximum likelihood approach to localizing radiation sources with unknown statistics of the source signal strength. The result utilizes the smallest number of sensors required theoretically to localize the source. It is shown, that should the source lie in the open convex hull of the sensors, precisely $N+1$ are required in $\\mathbb{R}^N, ~N \\in \\{1,\\cdots,3\\}$. It is further shown that the region of interest, the open convex hull of the sensors, is entirely devoid of false stationary points. An augmented gradient ascent algorithm with random projections should an estimate escape the convex hull is presented.

  14. Rainfall intensity effects on removal of fecal indicator bacteria from solid dairy manure applied over grass-covered soil.

    Blaustein, Ryan A; Hill, Robert L; Micallef, Shirley A; Shelton, Daniel R; Pachepsky, Yakov A


    The rainfall-induced release of pathogens and microbial indicators from land-applied manure and their subsequent removal with runoff and infiltration precedes the impairment of surface and groundwater resources. It has been assumed that rainfall intensity and changes in intensity during rainfall do not affect microbial removal when expressed as a function of rainfall depth. The objective of this work was to test this assumption by measuring the removal of Escherichia coli, enterococci, total coliforms, and chloride ion from dairy manure applied in soil boxes containing fescue, under 3, 6, and 9cmh(-1) of rainfall. Runoff and leachate were collected at increasing time intervals during rainfall, and post-rainfall soil samples were taken at 0, 2, 5, and 10cm depths. Three kinetic-based models were fitted to the data on manure-constituent removal with runoff. Rainfall intensity appeared to have positive effects on rainwater partitioning to runoff, and removal with this effluent type occurred in two stages. While rainfall intensity generally did not impact the parameters of runoff-removal models, it had significant, inverse effects on the numbers of bacteria remaining in soil after rainfall. As rainfall intensity and soil profile depth increased, the numbers of indicator bacteria tended to decrease. The cumulative removal of E. coli from manure exceeded that of enterococci, especially in the form of removal with infiltration. This work may be used to improve the parameterization of models for bacteria removal with runoff and to advance estimations of depths of bacteria removal with infiltration, both of which are critical to risk assessment of microbial fate and transport in the environment.

  15. Local influence of south-east France topography and land cover on the distribution and characteristics of intense rainfall cells

    Renard, Florent


    The Greater Lyon area is strongly built up, grouping 58 communes and a population of 1.3 million in approximately 500 km2. The flood risk is high as the territory is crossed by two large watercourses and by streams with torrential flow. Floods may also occur in case of runoff after heavy rain or because of a rise in the groundwater level. The whole territory can therefore be affected, and it is necessary to possess in-depth knowledge of the depths, causes and consequences of rainfall to achieve better management of precipitation in urban areas and to reduce flood risk. This study is thus focused on the effects of topography and land cover on the occurrence, intensity and area of intense rainfall cells. They are identified by local radar meteorology (C-band) combined with a processing algorithm running in a geographic information system (GIS) which identified 109,979 weighted mean centres of them in a sample composed of the five most intense rainfall events from 2001 to 2005. First, analysis of spatial distribution at an overall scale is performed, completed by study at a more detailed scale. The results show that the distribution of high-intensity rainfall cells is spread in cluster form. Subsequently, comparison of intense rainfall cells with the topography shows that cell density is closely linked with land slope but that, above all, urbanised zones feature nearly twice as many rainfall cells as farm land or forest, with more intense intensity.

  16. [Characteristics of soil phosphorus runoff under different rainfall intensities in the typical vegetable plot of Taihu Basin].

    Yang, Li-Xia; Yang, Gui-Shan; Yuan, Shao-Feng; Wu, Ye


    Experiments of field runoff plots, which were conducted at vegetable plots in Hongsheng town of Wuxi city--the typical region of Taihu Basin, were designed to assess the effects of different rainfall intensities on soil phosphorus runoff loss from vegetable plots by artificial rainfall simulations. Results showed that there was a relationship of power function between initial runoff-generation time and rainfall intensity. Runoff amount slowly increased under small rainfall intensity, but rapidly increased with rainfall intensity increase. The concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and particulate phosphorus (PP) were higher at the early stage, then gradually decreased with time and finally reached a comparative steady stage under 0.83, 1.17 and 1.67 mm x min(-1). However they indicated no obvious trend except wavy undulation under 2.50 mm x min(-1). In the course of rainfall-runoff, dissolved phosphorus (DP) gently varied and accounted for 20% - 32% of TP. PP was 68% - 80% of TP and its change trend was consistent with TP. Therefore, PP was main loss form of soil phosphorus runoff. Comparison of different phosphorous loss rate under different rainfall intensities suggested that loss rate of TP and DP under 2.50 mm x min(-1) was 20 times and 33 times higher than that under 0.83 mm x min(-1), which showed that loss rate of PP and DP increased with the increase of rainfall intensities. Results indicated that lots of inorganic dissolved phosphorus (DIP) of phosphorous fertilizer was discharged into water environment by using fertilizer in soil surface before rainfall, which increased loss of DP and greatly aggravated degree of water eutrophication.

  17. Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 1: Sydney, Australia

    D. Jakob


    Full Text Available This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. While there are still large discrepancies between precipitation data sets from observations and models, both show that there is a tendency for moist regions to become wetter and for dry regions to become drier. However, changes in extreme conditions may show the opposite sign to those in average conditions. Where changes in observed intense precipitation have been studied, this has typically been for daily durations or longer.

    The purpose of this two-part study is to examine daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes for evidence of non-stationarity. Here the problem was addressed by supplementing one long record (Part 1 by a set of shorter records for a 30-yr concurrent period (Part 2. Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed using data from sites in the south-east of Australia. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peaks-over-threshold approach was chosen since it allows investigating changes in frequency as well as magnitude. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude, and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of changes for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill for the period 1921 to 2005. Deviations from the long-term average vary with season, duration, and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs.

    Investigations presented in this paper show that variations in frequency and magnitude of events at

  18. The asymmetry of rainfall process

    YU RuCong; YUAN WeiHua; LI Jian


    Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006,the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event.The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric,which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event.The effects of rainfall intensity,duration and peak time,as well as topography,are also considered.It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain,such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains,and the Yungui Plateau.The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall,but the regional differences are weaker.The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry.The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out,which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak.These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models.Moreover,the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards,such as collapses,landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.

  19. How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

    Yu, B.


    Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud) in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2) (1966-2006). Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd) were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10-20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

  20. More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall.

    Feng, Zhe; Leung, L Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A; Burleyson, Casey D; Balaguru, Karthik


    The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.

  1. More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

    Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik


    The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.

  2. L-Moments Regional Frequency Analysis Methodology Application in maximum rainfall values over the Bogota River's basin

    Romero, Claudia; Mesa, Duvan


    L-Moments Regional Frequency Analysis Methodology Application in maximum rainfall values over the Bogota River's basin 1°Claudia Patricia Romero Hernández; 2°Duvan Javier Mesa Fernández Universidad Santo Tomas; Colombia The application area of this methodology is the Bogota River's basin, which is located in Cundinamarca; a Colombian department with a total surface area of 589.143 hectares. This basin includes 19 sub-basins, and it is the most densely urbanized of the country. Including its metropolitan area, this region boasts a population of 9.000.000 inhabitants; which composes approximately 23% of Colombia's population and possesses around 19% of the country's industries. This basin has shown a notorious increase of complicated floods frequency in the last few years due to climatic variations. These climatic periods correspond to a weather pattern called Niña Phenomenon (2010-2011), which affected 57.000 citizens in this department and 4,900 people directly in Bogota city, with an estimated economic damage of 277'121,052 USD. The Regional Frequency Analysis methodology is a statistics procedure that consists in adding information from multiple samples in a single large sample, assuming previously that all of these come from the same probability model, except for a difference between them due to a scale factor. These samples are defined by a "regionalization" procedure known as the "Avenue Index" or "Flood Index". This procedure groups several kinds of information that comes from a common probability model, such as temperature, rainfall, and water flow. This model must be similar for all of the weather stations located in a homogeneous region. Maps for each of 4 return periods (5, 10, 50 and 100 years) were developed based on 120 weather stations located on this basin. The information used in this process comes from median monthly rainfall data, based on historical series between 30 and 40 years average. An increase in the annual median rainfall was

  3. The role of aerosols to increase rainfall in the regions with less intensity rain: A modeling study

    Shyam Sundar


    Full Text Available In this paper, we established an ecological type three-dimensional nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of aerosol particles in increasing rainfall in the regions of less intensity rain. The phenomenon of nonlinearity is based on the concepts of ecology related to growth rate, death rate and interaction process (Smith, 1974. It is assumed that clouds are formed in the atmosphere but are not able to develop uninterrupted rainfall. The rainfall can be enhanced by introducing aerosol particles conducive to raindrops formation from cloud droplets. It is shown that the intensity of rainfall increases as the concentration of externally introduced aerosols and the density of cloud droplets increases. The numerical simulation has also been performed tosupport analytical results.

  4. Enhancing a Distributed Rainfall Intensity for Flood Analysis within a GIS Framework in an Urban Area (Kajang Flood)

    Salleh, S. H. M.; Sidek, L. M.


    The town of Kajang has experienced major flood events in previous decades since 1970s. Due to Eastern and Western Monsoon seasons in Malaysia, Kajang has potential to face with number of flood events. One of the critical elements in flood analysis is rainfall distribution. Therefore, flood studies need to have an optimum cognition of rainfall distribution as main input. In this study, HEC GeoHMS model was used in GIS (Geographic Information System) for Sungai Jeluh catchment (Kajang) due to estimation (visualization) of distributed rainfall in Kajang. In comparison with conventional methods, which they produced rainfall in lumped mode (e.g. Thiessen’s polygon), HEC GeoHMS visualized and tabulate a full distribution of rainfall for each small part (pixel of map) in a case study. HEC GeoHMS model for Sungai Jeluh has been set up by feeding high resolution of spatial and temporal resolution data (precipitation). Result of this study shows that rainfall by high intensity is distributed near urban area (downtown) in comparison with upstream which involved with less rainfall intensity.

  5. Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

    Staley, Dennis; Kean, Jason W.; Cannon, Susan H.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L.


    Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this

  6. Combined effects of constant versus variable intensity simulated rainfall and reduced tillage management on cotton preemergence herbicide runoff.

    Potter, Thomas L; Truman, Clint C; Strickland, Timothy C; Bosch, David D; Webster, Theodore M; Franklin, Dorcas H; Bednarz, Craig W


    Pesticide runoff research relies heavily on rainfall simulation experiments. Most are conducted at a constant intensity, i.e., at a fixed rainfall rate; however, large differences in natural rainfall intensity is common. To assess implications we quantified runoff of two herbicides, fluometuron and pendimethalin, and applied preemergence after planting cotton on Tifton loamy sand. Rainfall at constant and variable intensity patterns representative of late spring thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coastal Plain region of Georgia (USA) were simulated on 6-m2 plots under strip- (ST) and conventional-tillage (CT) management. The variable pattern produced significantly higher runoff rates of both compounds from CT but not ST plots. However, on an event-basis, runoff totals (% applied) were not significantly different, with one exception: fluometuron runoff from CT plots. There was about 25% more fluometuron runoff with the variable versus the constant intensity pattern (P = 0.10). Study results suggest that conduct of simulations using variable intensity storm patterns may provide more representative rainfall simulation-based estimates of pesticide runoff and that the greatest impacts will be observed with CT. The study also found significantly more fluometuron in runoff from ST than CT plots. Further work is needed to determine whether this behavior may be generalized to other active ingredients with similar properties [low K(oc) (organic carbon partition coefficient) approximately 100 mL g(-1); high water solubility approximately 100 mg L(-1)]. If so, it should be considered when making tillage-specific herbicide recommendations to reduce runoff potential.

  7. 最大熵算法在气象雨量预测中的应用分析%Application of Maximum Entropy Algorithm Meteorological Rainfall Prediction



    将最大熵原理的计算方法应用到气象雨量预测中,通过有效的仿真实验能够证明最大熵方法在气象雨量预测中的可行性。%The calculation of the maximum entropy principle is applied to the weather forecast rainfall through effective simulation experiment to prove the feasibility of the maximum entropy method of meteorological rainfall prediction.

  8. A systematic approach to selecting the best probability models for annual maximum rainfalls - A case study using data in Ontario (Canada)

    Nguyen, Truong-Huy; El Outayek, Sarah; Lim, Sun Hee; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van


    Many probability distributions have been developed to model the annual maximum rainfall series (AMS). However, there is no general agreement as to which distribution should be used due to the lack of a suitable evaluation method. This paper presents hence a general procedure for assessing systematically the performance of ten commonly used probability distributions in rainfall frequency analyses based on their descriptive as well as predictive abilities. This assessment procedure relies on an extensive set of graphical and numerical performance criteria to identify the most suitable models that could provide the most accurate and most robust extreme rainfall estimates. The proposed systematic assessment approach has been shown to be more efficient and more robust than the traditional model selection method based on only limited goodness-of-fit criteria. To test the feasibility of the proposed procedure, an illustrative application was carried out using 5-min, 1-h, and 24-h annual maximum rainfall data from a network of 21 raingages located in the Ontario region in Canada. Results have indicated that the GEV, GNO, and PE3 models were the best models for describing the distribution of daily and sub-daily annual maximum rainfalls in this region. The GEV distribution, however, was preferred to the GNO and PE3 because it was based on a more solid theoretical basis for representing the distribution of extreme random variables.

  9. Role of rainfall intensity and hydrology in nutrient transport via surface runoff.

    Kleinman, Peter J A; Srinivasan, M S; Dell, Curtis J; Schmidt, John P; Sharpley, Andrew N; Bryant, Ray B


    Loss of soil nutrients in runoff accelerates eutrophication of surface waters. This study evaluated P and N in surface runoff in relation to rainfall intensity and hydrology for two soils along a single hillslope. Experiments were initiated on 1- by 2-m plots at foot-slope (6%) and mid-slope (30%) positions within an alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)-orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) field. Rain simulations (2.9 and 7.0 cm h(-1)) were conducted under wet (spring) and dry (late-summer) conditions. Elevated, antecedent soil moisture at the foot-slope during the spring resulted in less rain required to generate runoff and greater runoff volumes, compared with runoff from the well-drained mid-slope in spring and at both landscape positions in late summer. Phosphorus in runoff was primarily in dissolved reactive form (DRP averaged 71% of total P), with DRP concentrations from the two soils corresponding with soil test P levels. Nitrogen in runoff was mainly nitrate (NO3-N averaged 77% of total N). Site hydrology, not chemistry, was primarily responsible for variations in mass N and P losses with landscape position. Larger runoff volumes from the foot-slope produced higher losses of total P (0.08 kg ha(-1)) and N (1.35 kg ha(-1)) than did runoff from the mid-slope (0.05 total P kg ha(-1); 0.48 kg N ha(-1)), particularly under wet, spring-time conditions. Nutrient losses were significantly greater under the high intensity rainfall due to larger runoff volumes. Results affirm the critical source area concept for both N and P: both nutrient availability and hydrology in combination control nutrient loss.

  10. Use of disdrometer data to evaluate the relationship of rainfall kinetic energy and intensity (KE-I).

    Angulo-Martínez, M; Beguería, S; Kyselý, J


    Determination of rainfall kinetic energy (KE) is required to calculate erosivity, the ability of rainfall to detach soil particles and initiate erosion. Disdrometers can measure rainfall KE by measuring raindrop size and velocity. In the absence of such devices, KE is usually estimated with empirical equations that derive KE from measured rainfall intensity (I). We evaluated the performance of 14 different KE-I equations to estimate the 1min KE and event total KE, and compared these results with 821 observed rainfall events recorded by an optical disdrometer in the inner Ebro Basin, NE Spain. We also evaluated two sources of bias when using such relationships: bias from use of theoretical raindrop terminal velocities instead of measured values; and bias from time aggregation (recording rainfall intensity every 5, 10, 15, 30, and 60min). Empirical relationships performed well when complete events were considered (R(2)>0.90), but performed poorly for within-event variation (1min resolution). Also, several of the KE-I equations had large systematic biases. When raindrop size is known, estimation of terminal velocities by empirical laws led to overestimates of raindrop velocity and KE. Time aggregation led to large under-estimates of KE, although linear scaling successfully corrected for this bias. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

    Naveau, Philippe


    In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

  12. Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

    Naveau, Philippe; Huser, Raphael; Ribereau, Pierre; Hannart, Alexis


    In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

  13. Propagation and effects of monsoonal seasonally intense rainfall signal in river strata

    Plink-Bjorklund, P.


    Climatic forcing signals in river systems tend to be modified on different temporal and spatial scales due to inherent signal buffering, re-routing, and a complex mixing of multiple autogenic and allogenic signals. Thus climate forcing response is generally assumed inherently non-linear with significant hysteresis effects. This paper explores propagation and effects of monsoonal, seasonally intense rainfall signal in river strata in the monsoonal and bordering subtropical domains. Some such rivers occur completely within the monsoon climate zone. Others have parts of their drainages in temperate climate zones, or on high elevations and receive some of their water discharge from other sources. Yet others, have their upstream drainages in the tropical monsoon climates, but flow through bordering subtropical drylands. Yet, all these rivers characteristically experience seasonal high magnitude floods as the effect of intense monsoon precipitation. Many rivers in the bordering subtropical zone receive monsoon rain and transmit discharge only during abnormal or strengthened monsoon seasons and associated cyclonic flow. Field datasets, comparison to modern river deposits and a literature review of monsoonal and bordering subtropical domain rivers reveal that the effects of the intense seasonal monsoon rain and the resultant flooding are readily recognizable in modern and ancient fluvial strata. This paper argues that this distinct and dominant climate signal propagation occurs because it is the monsoon discharge that is commonly responsible for up to 100% of sediment erosion, transport and deposition, creating a system wide flushing or splash effect on a single season to multi-million year time scale. The distinct monsoon flood deposits are interbedded with other types of fluvial strata in systems where significant deposition also occurs from low-magnitude flood or non-flood discharges.

  14. The analysis and kinetic energy balance of an upper-level wind maximum during intense convection

    Fuelberg, H. E.; Jedlovec, G. J.


    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the formation and maintenance of the upper-level wind maximum which formed between 1800 and 2100 GMT, April 10, 1979, during the AVE-SESAME I period, when intense storms and tornadoes were experienced (the Red River Valley tornado outbreak). Radiosonde stations participating in AVE-SESAME I are plotted (centered on Oklahoma). National Meteorological Center radar summaries near the times of maximum convective activity are mapped, and height and isotach plots are given, where the formation of an upper-level wind maximum over Oklahoma is the most significant feature at 300 mb. The energy balance of the storm region is seen to change dramatically as the wind maximum forms. During much of its lifetime, the upper-level wind maximum is maintained by ageostrophic flow that produces cross-contour generation of kinetic energy and by the upward transport of midtropospheric energy. Two possible mechanisms for the ageostrophic flow are considered.

  15. Rainfall and runoff Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Washington State considering the change and uncertainty of observed and anticipated extreme rainfall and snow events

    Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.


    The observed and anticipated increasing trends in extreme storm magnitude and frequency, as well as the associated flooding risk in the Pacific Northwest highlighted the need for revising and updating the local intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are commonly used for designing critical water infrastructure. In Washington State, much of the drainage system installed in the last several decades uses IDF curves that are outdated by as much as half a century, making the system inadequate and vulnerable for flooding as seen more frequently in recent years. In this study, we have developed new and forward looking rainfall and runoff IDF curves for each county in Washington State using recently observed and projected precipitation data. Regional frequency analysis coupled with Bayesian uncertainty quantification and model averaging methods were used to developed and update the rainfall IDF curves, which were then used in watershed and snow models to develop the runoff IDF curves that explicitly account for effects of snow and drainage characteristic into the IDF curves and related designs. The resulted rainfall and runoff IDF curves provide more reliable, forward looking, and spatially resolved characteristics of storm events that can assist local decision makers and engineers to thoroughly review and/or update the current design standards for urban and rural storm water management infrastructure in order to reduce the potential ramifications of increasing severe storms and resulting floods on existing and planned storm drainage and flood management systems in the state.

  16. More rain, less soil: long-term changes in rainfall intensity with climate change

    Burt, Tim; Boardman, John; Foster, Ian D L; Howden, Nicholas


    This commentary discusses the role of long-term climate change in driving increases in soil erosion. Assuming that land use and management remain effectively constant, we discuss changes in the ability of rainfall to cause erosion (erosivity), using long daily rainfall data sets from south east England. An upward trend in mean rainfall per rain day is detected at the century-plus time scale. Implications for soil erosion and sediment delivery are discussed and evidence from other regions revi...

  17. Continuidade espacial de chuvas intensas no estado de Minas Gerais Spatial continuity of intense rainfall in Minas Gerais State, Brazil

    Carlos Rogério de Mello


    -variogram models were tested based on Weighted Minimum Square (WMS and Maximum Likelihood (ML methods, using GeoR software. For the best model and method evaluation was considered the mean absolute error produced by cross-validation. For mean error similarity, it was considered the spatial degree of dependence and smaller nugget effect. Visual adjustment of semi-variogram was also analyzed to complete the selection. Exponential model was predominant in nine of twelve situations, followed by Gaussian model in two situations and Spherical for just one. Weighted Minimum Square was the best adjust method in all situations. These results have indicated the exponential model adjusted by Weighted Minimum Square to intense rainfall mapping for Minas Gerais State conditions.

  18. Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall intensities based on spectral characteristics retrieved from SEVIRI

    Slimane Hameg; Mourad Lazri; Soltane Ameur


    This paper presents a new algorithm to classify convective clouds and determine their intensity, based oncloud physical properties retrieved from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI).The convective rainfall events at 15 min, 4 × 5 km spatial resolution from 2006 to 2012 are analysed overnorthern Algeria. The convective rain classification methodology makes use of the relationship betweencloud spectral characteristics and cloud physical properties such as cloud water path (CWP), cloudphase (CP) and cloud top height (CTH). For this classification, a statistical method based on ‘naiveBayes classifier’ is applied. This is a simple probabilistic classifier based on applying ‘Bayes’ theoremwith strong (naive) independent assumptions. For a 9-month period, the ability of SEVIRI to classifythe rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria.The results indicate an encouraging performance of the new algorithm for intensity differentiation ofconvective clouds using SEVIRI data.

  19. Intensity-duration threshold of rainfall-triggered debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake affected area, China

    Guo, Xiaojun; Cui, Peng; Li, Yong; Ma, Li; Ge, Yonggang; Mahoney, William B.


    The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake has greatly altered the rainfall threshold for debris flows in the affected areas. This study explores the local intensity-duration (I-D) relationship based on 252 post-earthquake debris flows. It was found that I = 5.25 D-0.76 accounts for more than 98% of the debris flow occurrences with rainfall duration between 1 and 135 h; therefore the curve defines the threshold for debris flows in the study area. This gives much lower thresholds than those proposed by the previous studies, suggesting that the earthquake has greatly decreased the thresholds in the past years. Moreover, the rainfall thresholds appear to increase annually in the period of 2008-2013, and present a logarithmic increasing tendency, indicating that the thresholds will recover in the future decades.

  20. An interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variability in summer rainfall over southern China around early 1990s

    Chen, Jiepeng; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Xin; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng


    The intensity of interannual variability (IIV) in southern China (SC) summer rainfall experienced a remarkable increase in early 1990s, concurrent with the interdecadal increase in SC summer rainfall. Two factors are proposed for this interdecadal change. One is the interdecadal increase of IIV in tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) sea surface temperature (SST) after early 1990s. Anomalous warmer (cooler) TEIO SST triggers anomalous ascending (descending) motion and lower-level cyclonic (anticyclone) circulation in situ, which in turn induces anomalous descent (ascent) over SC through an anomalous meridional vertical circulation. This contributes to interannual summer rainfall variability over SC. The increase in the amplitude of TEIO SST anomalies in early 1990s led to an intensified interannual variability of summer rainfall over SC. The other is the strengthened influence of a coupled mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic triple SST anomaly on interannual variability in summer rainfall over SC after early 1990s. The leading EOF mode of the North Atlantic SST is characterized by a stripe pattern during 1979-1992, while during 1993-2008 the dominant mode of the North Atlantic SST is a triple pattern. The triple pattern of North Atlantic SST may exert positive effect on the NAO after early 1990s. Compared to the period 1979-1992, the relationship between the NAO and interannual summer rainfall over SC is enhanced during 1993-2008. The NAO coupled with North Atlantic SST triple exerts an important impact on SC summer rainfall variability through Eurasian wave-like train.

  1. An interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variability in summer rainfall over southern China around early 1990s

    Chen, Jiepeng; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Xin; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng


    The intensity of interannual variability (IIV) in southern China (SC) summer rainfall experienced a remarkable increase in early 1990s, concurrent with the interdecadal increase in SC summer rainfall. Two factors are proposed for this interdecadal change. One is the interdecadal increase of IIV in tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) sea surface temperature (SST) after early 1990s. Anomalous warmer (cooler) TEIO SST triggers anomalous ascending (descending) motion and lower-level cyclonic (anticyclone) circulation in situ, which in turn induces anomalous descent (ascent) over SC through an anomalous meridional vertical circulation. This contributes to interannual summer rainfall variability over SC. The increase in the amplitude of TEIO SST anomalies in early 1990s led to an intensified interannual variability of summer rainfall over SC. The other is the strengthened influence of a coupled mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic triple SST anomaly on interannual variability in summer rainfall over SC after early 1990s. The leading EOF mode of the North Atlantic SST is characterized by a stripe pattern during 1979-1992, while during 1993-2008 the dominant mode of the North Atlantic SST is a triple pattern. The triple pattern of North Atlantic SST may exert positive effect on the NAO after early 1990s. Compared to the period 1979-1992, the relationship between the NAO and interannual summer rainfall over SC is enhanced during 1993-2008. The NAO coupled with North Atlantic SST triple exerts an important impact on SC summer rainfall variability through Eurasian wave-like train.

  2. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.


    Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity-duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity-duration thresholds do not currently exist.

  3. GCR intensity during the sunspot maximum phase and the inversion of the heliospheric magnetic field

    Krainev, M; Kalinin, M; Svirzhevskaya, A; Svirzhevsky, N


    The maximum phase of the solar cycle is characterized by several interesting features in the solar activity, heliospheric characteristics and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity. Recently the maximum phase of the current solar cycle (SC) 24, in many relations anomalous when compared with solar cycles of the second half of the 20-th century, came to the end. The corresponding phase in the GCR intensity cycle is also in progress. In this paper we study different aspects of the sunspot, heliospheric and GCR behavior around this phase. Our main conclusions are as follows: 1) The maximum phase of the sunspot SC 24 ended in 06.2014, the development of the sunspot cycle being similar to those of SC 14, 15 (the Glaisberg minimum). The maximum phase of SC 24 in the GCR intensity is still in progress. 2) The inversion of the heliospheric magnetic field consists of three stages, characterized by the appearance of the global heliospheric current sheet (HCS), connecting all longitudes. In two transition dipole stages ...

  4. Image coding based on maximum entropy partitioning for identifying improbable intensities related to facial expressions



    In this paper we investigate information-theoretic image coding techniques that assign longer codes to improbable, imprecise and non-distinct intensities in the image. The variable length coding techniques when applied to cropped facial images of subjects with different facial expressions, highlight the set of low probability intensities that characterize the facial expression such as the creases in the forehead, the widening of the eyes and the opening and closing of the mouth. A new coding scheme based on maximum entropy partitioning is proposed in our work, particularly to identify the improbable intensities related to different emotions. The improbable intensities when used as a mask decode the facial expression correctly, providing an effectiveplatform for future emotion categorization experiments

  5. Effect of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity variability on shallow landslide triggering return period

    Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino


    Assessment of shallow landslide hazard is important for appropriate planning of mitigation measures. Generally, return period of slope instability is assumed as a quantitative metric to map landslide triggering hazard on a catchment. The most commonly applied approach to estimate such return period consists in coupling a physically-based landslide triggering model (hydrological and slope stability) with rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Among the drawbacks of such an approach, the following assumptions may be mentioned: (1) prefixed initial conditions, with no regard to their probability of occurrence, and (2) constant intensity-hyetographs. In our work we propose the use of a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to investigate the effects of the two above mentioned assumptions. The approach is based on coupling a physically based hydrological and slope stability model with a stochastic rainfall time series generator. By this methodology a long series of synthetic rainfall data can be generated and given as input to a landslide triggering physically based model, in order to compute the return period of landslide triggering as the mean inter-arrival time of a factor of safety less than one. In particular, we couple the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model for hourly rainfall generation and the TRIGRS v.2 unsaturated model for the computation of transient response to individual rainfall events. Initial conditions are computed by a water table recession model that links initial conditions at a given event to the final response at the preceding event, thus taking into account variable inter-arrival time between storms. One-thousand years of synthetic hourly rainfall are generated to estimate return periods up to 100 years. Applications are first carried out to map landslide triggering hazard in the Loco catchment, located in highly landslide-prone area of the Peloritani Mountains, Sicily, Italy. Then a set of additional simulations are performed

  6. Hydrological response variability in a small vineyard catchment (D.O. Penedès, NE Spain): effects of rainfall intensity and soil moisture conditions

    Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Concepción Ramos Martín, M.; Martínez Casasnovas, José Antonio


    The catchment of Hostalets de Pierola, a small tributary of the low course of the Anoia river (Llobregat basin), is located in the Catalan Prelitoral Depression (Penedès Depression) on Pliocene gravels and detritic Miocene substratum. The catchment size is 0.46 km2 with an average slope of 7.2 %. The main land use in the catchment is vineyards (62.3 %), with other crops and land uses with minor occupation: olive trees 4.8 %, winter cereals 9.5 %, alfalfa 8.5 %, among other). In order to carry out a research on the hydrological response and sediment transport in a representative catchment of vineyard areas in the Spanish Mediterranean region, the catchment was equipped with pluviographs to measure rainfall amount and intensity, soil moisture content sensors and a flume (HL 4" type) to measure water flow in the outlet. This water gauging allows to measure flows up to 3400 l•s-1, and it is equipped with two ultrasonic level sensors and a data-logger for data register. In parallel, monitoring of subsurface water flow of the catchment was carried out in the natural source called Can Flaquer. During the springs of 2011 and 2012 several rainfall events occurred, which allow a preliminary analysis of the hydrological response of the catchment, in comparison with rainfall characteristics (depth and intensity) and the antecedent soil moisture content. The spring events include episodes up to 27 mm, with maximum intensities of 50 mm•h-1 and peak flows up to 1100 l•s-1. The surface runoff of the catchment ceases very quickly, in a few hours after the end of rainfall events, indicating a limited role of soils in water retention and a very active percolation into the aquifer of the Pleistocene gravels. The runoff rates of the analyzed events were relatively low (between 1 - 12 %), depending on the rainfall characteristics and the antecedent soil moisture, indicating a high soil permeability. An important part of the infiltrated water follows a slow subsuperficial way to

  7. Recharge heterogeneity and high intensity rainfall events increase contamination risk for Mediterranean groundwater resources

    Hartmann, Andreas; Jasechko, Scott; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Andreo, Bartolomé; Barberá, Juan Antonio; Brielmann, Heike; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Darling, George; Filippini, Maria; Garvelmann, Jakob; Goldscheider, Nico; Kralik, Martin; Kunstmann, Harald; Ladouche, Bernard; Lange, Jens; Mudarra, Matías; Francisco Martín, José; Rimmer, Alon; Sanchez, Damián; Stumpp, Christine; Wagener, Thorsten


    Karst develops through the dissolution of carbonate rock and results in pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Karst groundwater in Europe is a major source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries like Austria or Slovenia. Previous work showed that karstic recharge processes enhance and alter the sensitivity of recharge to climate variability. The enhanced preferential flow from the surface to the aquifer may be followed by enhanced risk of groundwater contamination. In this study we assess the contamination risk of karst aquifers over Europe and the Mediterranean using simulated transit time distributions. Using a new type of semi-distributed model that considers the spatial heterogeneity of karst hydraulic properties, we were able to simulate karstic groundwater recharge including its heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. The model is driven by gridded daily climate data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Transit time distributions are calculated using virtual tracer experiments. We evaluated our simulations by independent information on transit times derived from observed time series of water isotopes of >70 karst springs over Europe. The simulations indicate that, compared to humid, mountain and desert regions, the Mediterranean region shows a stronger risk of contamination in Europe because preferential flow processes are most pronounced given thin soil layers and the seasonal abundance of high intensity rainfall events in autumn and winter. Our modelling approach includes strong simplifications and its results cannot easily be generalized but it still highlights that the combined effects of variable climate and heterogeneous catchment properties constitute a strong risk on water quality.

  8. Stable Voice Clusters Identified When Using the Maximum versus Minimum Intensity Curve in the Phonetogram.

    Camarrone, Flavio; Ivanova, Anna; Decoster, Wivine; de Jong, Felix; van Hulle, Marc M


    To examine whether the minimum as well as the maximum voice intensity (i.e. sound pressure level, SPL) curves of a voice range profile (VRP) are required when discovering different voice groups based on a clustering analysis. In this approach, no a priori labeling of voice types is used. VRPs of 194 (84 male and 110 female) professional singers were registered and processed. Cluster analysis was performed with the use of features related to (1) both the maximum and minimum SPL curves and (2) the maximum SPL curve only. Features related to the maximum as well as the minimum SPL curves showed three clusters in both male and female voices. These clusters, or voice groups, are based on voice types with similar VRP features. However, when using features related only to the maximum SPL curve, the clusters became less obvious. Features related to the maximum and minimum SPL curves of a VRP are both needed in order to identify the three voice clusters. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. Prediction of rainfall intensity measurement errors using commercial microwave communication links

    A. Zinevich


    Full Text Available Commercial microwave radio links forming cellular communication networks are known to be a valuable instrument for measuring near-surface rainfall. However, operational communication links are more uncertain relatively to the dedicated installations since their geometry and frequencies are optimized for high communication performance rather than observing rainfall. Quantification of the uncertainties for measurements that are non-optimal in the first place is essential to assure usability of the data.

    In this work we address modeling of instrumental impairments, i.e. signal variability due to antenna wetting, baseline attenuation uncertainty and digital quantization, as well as environmental ones, i.e. variability of drop size distribution along a link affecting accuracy of path-averaged rainfall measurement and spatial variability of rainfall in the link's neighborhood affecting the accuracy of rainfall estimation out of the link path. Expressions for root mean squared error (RMSE for estimates of path-averaged and point rainfall have been derived. To verify the RMSE expressions quantitatively, path-averaged measurements from 21 operational communication links in 12 different locations have been compared to records of five nearby rain gauges over three rainstorm events.

    The experiments show that the prediction accuracy is above 90% for temporal accumulation less than 30 min and lowers for longer accumulation intervals. Spatial variability in the vicinity of the link, baseline attenuation uncertainty and, possibly, suboptimality of wet antenna attenuation model are the major sources of link-gauge discrepancies. In addition, the dependence of the optimal coefficients of a conventional wet antenna attenuation model on spatial rainfall variability and, accordingly, link length has been shown.

    The expressions for RMSE of the path-averaged rainfall estimates can be useful for integration of measurements from multiple

  10. Latitudinal Change of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the Western North Pacific

    Jae-Won Choi


    Full Text Available This study obtained the latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs show maximum intensity and applied statistical change-point analysis on the time series data of the average annual values. The analysis results found that the latitude of the TC maximum intensity increased from 1999. To investigate the reason behind this phenomenon, the difference of the average latitude between 1999 and 2013 and the average between 1977 and 1998 was analyzed. In a difference of 500 hPa streamline between the two periods, anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strong in 30°–50°N, while anomalous monsoon trough was located in the north of South China Sea. This anomalous monsoon trough was extended eastward to 145°E. Middle-latitude region in East Asia is affected by the anomalous southeasterlies due to these anomalous anticyclonic circulations and anomalous monsoon trough. These anomalous southeasterlies play a role of anomalous steering flows that make the TCs heading toward region in East Asia middle latitude. As a result, TCs during 1999–2013 had higher latitude of the maximum intensity compared to the TCs during 1977–1998.

  11. Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.

    Lee, Tsung-Yu; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Jun-Yi; Jien, Shih-Hao; Zehetner, Franz; Kao, Shuh-Ji


    Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989) and a recent stage (1990-2010) to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles) among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.

  12. Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.

    Tsung-Yu Lee

    Full Text Available Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989 and a recent stage (1990-2010 to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.

  13. Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael


    The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

  14. Optimization of typical diffuse herbicide pollution control by soil amendment configurations under four levels of rainfall intensities.

    Ouyang, Wei; Huang, Weijia; Wei, Peng; Hao, Fanghua; Yu, Yongyong


    Herbicides are a main source of agricultural diffuse pollution due to their wide application in tillage practices. The aim of this study is to optimize the control efficiency of the herbicide atrazine with the aid of modified soil amendments. The soil amendments were composed of a combination of biochar and gravel. The biochar was created from corn straw with a catalytic pyrolysis of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate. The leaching experiments under four rainfall conditions were measured for the following designs: raw soil, soil amended with gravel, biochar individually and together with gravel. The control efficiency of each design was also identified. With the designed equipment, the atrazine content in the contaminant load layer, gravel substrate layer, biochar amendment layer and soil layer was measured under four types of rainfall intensities (1.25 mm/h, 2.50 mm/h, 5.00 mm/h and 10.00 mm/h). Furthermore, the vertical distribution of atrazine in the soil sections was also monitored. The results showed that the herbicide leaching load increased under the highest rainfall intensity in all designs. The soil with the combination of gravel and biochar provided the highest control efficiency of 87.85% on atrazine when the additional proportion of biochar was 3.0%. The performance assessment under the four kinds of rainfall intensity conditions provided the guideline for the soil amendment configuration. The combination of gravel and biochar is recommended as an efficient method for controlling diffuse herbicide pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    Wied Pedersen, Jonas; Lund, Nadia Schou Vorndran; Borup, Morten;


    period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior......High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper...... presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined...

  16. Effect of Slope, Rainfall Intensity and Mulch on Erosion and Infiltration under Simulated Rain on Purple Soil of South-Western Sichuan Province, China

    Muhammad Naeem Khan


    Full Text Available Purple soil is widely distributed in the hilly areas of the Sichuan basin, southwest China, and is highly susceptible to water erosion. The triggering of this process is related to slope, rainfall intensity and surface cover. Therefore, this study assesses the effects of different simulated rainfall intensities with different slopes on hydrological and erosional processes in un-mulched and mulched purple soils. Results show that the sediment and water losses increased with an increase of rainfall intensity and slope steepness. Generally, the slope contribution (Sc on water and sediment losses decreased with increasing rainfall intensity and slope steepness under both un-mulched and mulched soil. In un-mulched conditions, water losses were independent of slope steepness (Sc < 50% during the highest rainfall intensity. However, in mulched soil, the higher contributions of slope (Sc and rainfall (Rc were found for water and sediment losses, respectively, i.e., >50%, except during the increase in slope steepness from 15° to 25° under the highest rainfall intensity (120 mm·h−1. The effectiveness of mulch was more pronounced in reducing sediment losses (81%–100% compared with water losses (14%–100%. The conservation effectiveness of mulch both decreased and increased with slope steepness for water and sediment losses, respectively, under higher rainfall intensities. Water infiltration and recharge coefficient (RC decreased with an increase of slope steepness, while with an increase in rainfall intensity, the water infiltration and RC were increased and decreased, respectively, in both un-mulched and mulched soil. On the other hand, mulched soil maintained a significantly (α = 0.05 higher infiltration capacity and RC compared to that of the un-mulched soil.

  17. Maximum Power Point Tracking of Photovoltaic power Generation System Based on Fuzzy Approximation of Operating Point Voltage with Radiation Intensity

    H. Ijadi


    Full Text Available In this paper, a method to track the maximum power of solar panels based on fuzzy logic is presented. The proposed method is based on the relationship between radiation intensity and the voltage of maximum power operating point. With this relationship, at any time by measuring the light intensity, voltage can be calculated at the maximum power point by using fuzzy approximation function. In order to verify the proposed method, simulation results are presented.

  18. Cold Air Activities in July 2004 and Its Impact on Intense Rainfalls over Southwest China


    The severe rainfall events in the mid-summer of July 2004 and the roles of cold air in the formation of heavy precipitation are investigated by using daily observational precipitation data of China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results show that the severe rainfalls in Southwest China are closely related to the cold air activities from the mid-high latitudes, and the events take place under the cooperative effects of mid-high latitude circulation and low latitude synoptic regimes. It is the merging of a cold vortex over mid-latitudes with the northward landing typhoon and eastward Southwest China Vortex, as well as the abrupt transformation from a transversal trough into an upright one that causes three large alterations of mid-high atmospheric circulation respectively in the early and middle ten days of this month. Then, the amplitude of long waves soon magnifies, leading to the unusual intrusion of cold air to low-latitude areas in the mid-summer. Meanwhile, the warm and humid southwest summer monsoon is quite active. The strong interactions of cold air and summer monsoon over Southwest China result in the large-scale convective rainfalls on the southern side of cold air.With regard to the activities of cold air, it can influence rainfalls in three prominent ways. Firstly, the incursion of upper-level cold air is often accompanied by partial southerly upper-level jet. The ascending branch of the corresponding secondary circulation, which is on the left front side of the jet center, provides the favorite dynamic upward motion for the rainfalls. Secondly, the southward movement of cold air contributes to the establishment of atmospheric baroclinic structure, which would lead to baroclinic disturbances. The atmospheric disturbances associated with the intrusion of cold air can destroy the potential instability stratification, release the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and finally cause convective activities. In addition, the advection processes of dry

  19. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    E. Arnone


    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas.

    In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative.

    Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test.

    Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations

  20. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    E. Arnone


    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  1. Has the intensity of the interannual variability in summer rainfall over South China remarkably increased?

    Fan, Ke; Xu, Zhiqing; Tian, Baoqiang


    It is indicated in this paper that there were substantial differences of interannual variability (IIV) in summer rainfall over South China (RSC) among 1960-1977, 1978-1988, and 1989-2010. Notably, both IIV and mean RSC have significantly increased after 1992/1993. Relative to 1978-1988, the percentage increase of standard deviation (SD) of RSC is 230.32 % for 1993-2010. It indicates remarkable increase in IIV of RSC occurred 1993-2010, concurrent with rainfall increase. The results show that the mid-tropospheric meridional gradient of temperature over East Asia weakened in the later period, resulting in an anomalous cyclonic circulation, transporting more tropospheric moisture to South China and an upward motion at the middle and low levels of the troposphere. Meanwhile, IIV in the mid-tropospheric meridional gradient of temperature over East Asia resulted in IIVs both in the anomalous cyclonic circulation and in vertically integrated moisture content over South China. This scenario led to a significant increase in the IIV of summer rainfall over South China. Compared to 1978-1988, a greater increase in the IIV of warming over Mongolia-northeastern China and of excessive spring snow depth over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau were responsible for the increase in the IIV of the mid-tropospheric meridional gradient of the East Asian temperature during 1993-2010. Moreover, another slight increase in the IIV of summer rainfall over South China occurred in 1960-1977 relative to 1978-1988, which partly resulted from the weakening East Asian summer monsoon variability in the late 1970s.

  2. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason


    Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently

  3. Effect of vegetal cover on runoff and soil erosion under light intensity events. Rainfall simulation over USLE plots.

    Marques, María José; Bienes, Ramón; Jiménez, Luis; Pérez-Rodríguez, Raquel


    The erosive power of frequent light rainfalls is studied in this paper. Field experiments of simulated rainfall (Intensity, 21 mm h(-1) and kinetic energy, 13.5 J m(-2) mm(-1)) were conducted over 8 bounded USLE plots (80 m(2) each) with a slope of 10%. In 4 plots the soil was almost bare (<4% vegetation cover); the other 4 plots had almost full cover with natural vegetation in one year. Runoff and sediment yield was recorded. The results revealed the efficiency of vegetation cover reducing runoff and sediments. Runoff and sediments were negligible in covered plots. Therefore, in bare plots, although sediment yield was generally low, averaging 74+/-43 kg ha(-1), the mean of runoff achieved a coefficient of 35%, this magnitude has to be taken into consideration in this region verging on aridity. Rains around 13.5 J m(-2) mm(-1) of kinetic energy are quite frequent in the study area (34% of recorded rains en 12 years). If we would consider the usual lower limits from the literature, we would be ignoring an important percent of natural rainfall episodes.

  4. More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central U.S. rainfall

    Feng, Zhe; Leung, Lai-Yung; Hagos, Samson M.; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik


    The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.

  5. Statistical analysis of yearly series of maximum daily rainfall in Spain. Analisis estadistico de las series anuales de maximas lluvias diarias en Espaa

    Ferrer Polo, J.; Ardiles Lopez, K. L. (CEDEX, Ministerio de Obras Publicas, Transportes y Medio ambiente, Madrid (Spain))


    Work on the statistical modelling of maximum daily rainfalls is presented, with a view to estimating the quantiles for different return periods. An index flood approach has been adopted in which the local quantiles are a result of rescaling a regional law using the mean of each series of values, that is utilized as a local scale factor. The annual maximum series have been taken from 1.545 meteorological stations over a 30 year period, and these have been classified into 26 regions defined according to meteorological criteria, the homogeneity of wich has been checked by means of a statistical analysis of the coefficients of variation of the samples,using the. An estimation has been made of the parameters for the following four distribution models: Two Component Extreme Value (TCEV); General Extreme Value (GEV); Log-Pearson III (LP3); and SQRT-Exponential Type Distribution of Maximum. The analysis of the quantiles obtained reveals slight differences in the results thus detracting from the importance of the model selection. The last of the above-mentioned distribution has been finally chosen, on the basis of the following: it is defined with fewer parameters it is the only that was proposed specifically for the analysis of daily rainfall maximums; it yields more conservative results than the traditional Gumbel distribution for the high return periods; and it is capable of providing a good description of the main sampling statistics concerning the right-hand tail of the distribution, a fact that has been checked with Montecarlo's simulation techniques. The choice of a distribution model with only two parameters has led to the selection of the regional coefficient of variation as the only determining parameter for the regional quantiles. This has permitted the elimination of the quantiles discontinuity of the classical regional approach, thus smoothing the values of that coefficient by means of an isoline plan on a national scale.

  6. The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity.

    Kossin, James P; Emanuel, Kerry A; Vecchi, Gabriel A


    Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.

  7. Dendritic tree extraction from noisy maximum intensity projection images in C. elegans.

    Greenblum, Ayala; Sznitman, Raphael; Fua, Pascal; Arratia, Paulo E; Oren, Meital; Podbilewicz, Benjamin; Sznitman, Josué


    Maximum Intensity Projections (MIP) of neuronal dendritic trees obtained from confocal microscopy are frequently used to study the relationship between tree morphology and mechanosensory function in the model organism C. elegans. Extracting dendritic trees from noisy images remains however a strenuous process that has traditionally relied on manual approaches. Here, we focus on automated and reliable 2D segmentations of dendritic trees following a statistical learning framework. Our dendritic tree extraction (DTE) method uses small amounts of labelled training data on MIPs to learn noise models of texture-based features from the responses of tree structures and image background. Our strategy lies in evaluating statistical models of noise that account for both the variability generated from the imaging process and from the aggregation of information in the MIP images. These noisy models are then used within a probabilistic, or Bayesian framework to provide a coarse 2D dendritic tree segmentation. Finally, some post-processing is applied to refine the segmentations and provide skeletonized trees using a morphological thinning process. Following a Leave-One-Out Cross Validation (LOOCV) method for an MIP databse with available "ground truth" images, we demonstrate that our approach provides significant improvements in tree-structure segmentations over traditional intensity-based methods. Improvements for MIPs under various imaging conditions are both qualitative and quantitative, as measured from Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves and the yield and error rates in the final segmentations. In a final step, we demonstrate our DTE approach on previously unseen MIP samples including the extraction of skeletonized structures, and compare our method to a state-of-the art dendritic tree tracing software. Overall, our DTE method allows for robust dendritic tree segmentations in noisy MIPs, outperforming traditional intensity-based methods. Such approach provides a

  8. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Álvaro José Back


    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  9. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    Jonas W. Pedersen


    Full Text Available High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior standard deviations and lengths of the auto-calibration period on the resulting flow forecast performance are evaluated. We were able to demonstrate that, if properly tuned, the method leads to a significant increase in forecasting performance compared to a model without continuous auto-calibration. Delayed responses and erratic behaviour in the parameter variations are, however, observed and the choice of prior distributions and length of auto-calibration period is not straightforward.

  10. Novel automated motion compensation technique for producing cumulative maximum intensity subharmonic images.

    Dave, Jaydev K; Forsberg, Flemming


    The aim of this study was to develop a novel automated motion compensation algorithm for producing cumulative maximum intensity (CMI) images from subharmonic imaging (SHI) of breast lesions. SHI is a nonlinear contrast-specific ultrasound imaging technique in which pulses are received at half the frequency of the transmitted pulses. A Logiq 9 scanner (GE Healthcare, Milwaukee, WI, USA) was modified to operate in grayscale SHI mode (transmitting/receiving at 4.4/2.2 MHz) and used to scan 14 women with 16 breast lesions. Manual CMI images were reconstructed by temporal maximum-intensity projection of pixels traced from the first frame to the last. In the new automated technique, the user selects a kernel in the first frame and the algorithm then uses the sum of absolute difference (SAD) technique to identify motion-induced displacements in the remaining frames. A reliability parameter was used to estimate the accuracy of the motion tracking based on the ratio of the minimum SAD to the average SAD. Two thresholds (the mean and 85% of the mean reliability parameter) were used to eliminate images plagued by excessive motion and/or noise. The automated algorithm was compared with the manual technique for computational time, correction of motion artifacts, removal of noisy frames and quality of the final image. The automated algorithm compensated for motion artifacts and noisy frames. The computational time was 2 min compared with 60-90 minutes for the manual method. The quality of the motion-compensated CMI-SHI images generated by the automated technique was comparable to the manual method and provided a snapshot of the microvasculature showing interconnections between vessels, which was less evident in the original data. In conclusion, an automated algorithm for producing CMI-SHI images has been developed. It eliminates the need for manual processing and yields reproducible images, thereby increasing the throughput and efficiency of reconstructing CMI-SHI images. The

  11. Analysis and stochastic modelling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship from 88 years of 10 min rainfall data in North Spain

    Delgado, Oihane; Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; López, J. Javier


    Frequently, when we are trying to solve certain hydrological engineering problems, it is often necessary to know rain intensity values related to a specific probability or return period, T. Based on analyses of extreme rainfall events at different time scale aggregation, we can deduce the relationships among Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF), that are widely used in hydraulic infrastructure design. However, the lack of long time series of rainfall intensities for smaller time periods, minutes or hours, leads to use mathematical expressions to characterize and extend these curves. One way to deduce them is through the development of synthetic rainfall time series generated from stochastic models, which is evaluated in this work. From recorded accumulated rainfall time series every 10 min in the pluviograph of Igueldo (San Sebastian, Spain) for the time period between 1927-2005, their homogeneity has been checked and possible statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends have also been shown. Subsequently, two models have been calibrated: Bartlett-Lewis and Markov chains models, which are based on the successions of storms, composed for a series of rainfall events, separated by a short interval of time each. Finally, synthetic ten-minute rainfall time series are generated, which allow to estimate detailed IDF curves and compare them with the estimated IDF based on the recorded data.

  12. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    S. Yin


    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event, EI30, is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models that relate more commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to rainfall erosivity. Eleven stations with one-minute temporal resolution rainfall data collected from 1961 through 2000 in the eastern water-erosion areas of China were used to develop and calibrate 21 models. Seven independent stations, also with one-minute data, were utilized to validate those models, together with 20 previously published equations. Results showed that models in this study performed better or similar to models from previous research to estimate rainfall erosivity for these data. Prediction capabilities, as determined using symmetric mean absolute percentage errors and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients, were demonstrated for the 41 models including those for estimating erosivity at event, daily, monthly, yearly, average monthly and average annual time scales. Prediction capabilities were generally better using higher resolution rainfall data as inputs. For example, models with rainfall amount and maximum 60 min rainfall amount as inputs performed better than models with rainfall amount and maximum daily rainfall amount, which performed better than those with only rainfall amount. Recommendations are made for choosing the appropriate estimation equation, which depend on objectives and data availability.

  13. Relationship between summer rainfall anomalies and sub-seasonal oscillation intensity in the ChangJiang Valley in China

    Li, Chunhui; Li, Tim; Gu, Dejun; Lin, Ailan; Zheng, Bin


    Sub-seasonal variability of summer (May-October) rainfall over the ChangJiang Valley exhibits two dominant timescales, one with a quasi-biweekly (QBW) period (10-20 days) and the other with an intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) period (20-60 days). A significant positive correlation (at a 99% confidence level) was found between the summer precipitation anomaly and the intensity of the QBW and ISO modes in the region. By examining the composite structure and evolution characteristics, we note that the QBW mode is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented wave train pattern, moving southeastward. The perturbations associated with the ISO mode propagate northwestward in strong ISO years but southeastward in weak ISO years. A marked feature is the phase leading of low-level moisture to convection in both the QBW and ISO mode. When the summer rainfall is strong in the ChangJiang Valley, large-scale atmospheric conditions in the strong QBW/ISO activity region are characterized by deeper moist layer, convectively more unstable stratification and greater ascending motion. Such mean conditions favor the growth of the QBW and ISO perturbations. Thus, a significant positive correlation between the summer precipitation and the strength of sub-seasonal variability arises from the large-scale control of the summer mean flow to perturbations.

  14. The effect of rainfall and competition intensity on forest response to drought: lessons learned from a dry extreme.

    Dorman, Michael; Perevolotsky, Avi; Sarris, Dimitrios; Svoray, Tal


    We investigated forest responses to global warming by observing: (1) planted Pinus halepensis forests, (2) an aridity gradient-with annual precipitation (P) ranging from ~300 to ~700 mm, and (3) periods of wet and dry climate that included the driest period during at least the last 110 years. We examined: (1) how the length of climatic integration periods to which trees are most responsive varies in space and time, (2) the extent to which competition modulates growth decline during drought (2011) and subsequent recovery (2012) years. The temporal scale of rainfall that was most influential on growth shortened in progressing southward, and in the drier than in the wetter period. Long-term underground water storage, as reflected in the relationship of growth to multiple-year rainfall, remained significant up to the point where P ≈ 500 mm. Under drier conditions (P Competition appeared to set an upper limit to growth, while growth variation among individual trees increased as competition-intensity decreased. That upper limit increased in 2012 compared with 2011. The observed insensitivity of slow-growing trees to competition implies that mortality risk may be density independent, when even any potential for higher soil moisture availability in open stands is lost to evapotranspiration before it can benefit tree growth.

  15. Volume rendering versus maximum intensity projection in CT angiography: what works best, when, and why.

    Fishman, Elliot K; Ney, Derek R; Heath, David G; Corl, Frank M; Horton, Karen M; Johnson, Pamela T


    The introduction and widespread availability of 16-section multi-detector row computed tomographic (CT) technology and, more recently, 64-section scanners, has greatly advanced the role of CT angiography in clinical practice. CT angiography has become a key component of state-of-the-art imaging, with applications ranging from oncology (eg, staging of pancreatic or renal cancer) to classic vascular imaging (eg, evaluation of aortic aneurysms and renal artery stenoses) as well as newer techniques such as coronary artery imaging and peripheral runoff studies. With an average of 400-1000 images in each volume data set, three-dimensional postprocessing is crucial to volume visualization. Radiologists now have workstations that provide capabilities for evaluation of these data sets by using a range of software programs and processing tools. Although different systems have unique capabilities and functionality, all provide the options of volume rendering and maximum intensity projection for image display and analysis. These two postprocessing techniques have different advantages and disadvantages when used in clinical practice, and it is important that radiologists understand when and how each technique should be used. Copyright RSNA, 2006.

  16. CT-maximum intensity projection is a clinically useful modality for the detection of gastric varices

    Toru Ishikawa; Tomoteru Kamimura; Takashi Ushiki; Ken-ichi Mizuno; Tadayuki Togashi; Kouji Watanabe; Kei-ichi Seki; Hironobu Ohta; Toshiaki Yoshida; Keiko Takeda


    AIM: To evaluate the efficacy of CT-maximum intensity projection (CT-MIP) in the detection of gastric varicesand their inflowing and outflowing vessels in patientswith gastric varices scheduled to undergo balloonoccluded retrograde transvenous obliteration (B-RTO). METHODS: Sixteen patients with endoscopicallyconfirmed gastric varices were included in this study. All patients were evaluated with CT-MIP using threedimensional reconstructions, before and after B-RTO. RESULTS: CT-MIP clearly depicted gastric varices in 16 patients (100%), the left gastric vein in 6 (32.5%),the posterior gastric vein in 12 (75.0%), the short gastric veins in 13 (81.3%), gastrorenal shunts in 16 (100%), the hemiazygos vein (HAZV) in 4 (25.0%), the pericardiophrenic vein (PCPV) in 9 (56.3%), and the left inferior phrenic vein in 9 patients (56.3%). Although flow direction itself cannot be determined from CT-MIP,this modality provided clear images of the inflowing and the outflowing vessels. Moreover, in one patient, short gastric veins were not seen on conventional angiographic portography images of the spleen, but were clearly revealed on CT-MIP,CONCLUSION: We suggest that CT-MIP should be considered as a routine method for detecting and diagnosing collateral veins in patients with gastric varices scheduled for B-RTO. Furthermore, CT-MIP is more useful than endoscopy in verifying the early therapeutic effects of B-RTO.

  17. Normalized maximum intensity time ratio maps and morphological descriptors for assessment of malignancy in MR mammography.

    Ertas, Gokhan; Gulcur, H Ozcan; Tunaci, Mehtap


    Effectiveness of morphological descriptors based on normalized maximum intensity-time ratio (nMITR) maps generated using a 3 x 3 pixel moving mask on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetoresistance (MR) mammograms are studied for assessment of malignancy. After a rough indication of volume of interest on the nMITR maps, lesions are automatically segmented. Two-dimensional (2D) convexity, normalized complexity, extent, and eccentricity as well as three-dimensional (3D) versions of these descriptors and contact surface area ratio are computed. On a data set consisting of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR DCE-MR mammograms from 51 women that contain 26 benign and 32 malignant lesions, 3D convexity, complexity, and extent are found to reflect aggressiveness of malignancy better than 2D descriptors. Contact surface area ratio which is easily adaptable to different imaging resolutions is found to be the most significant and accurate descriptor (75% sensitivity, 88% specificity, 89% positive predictive values, and 74% negative predictive values).

  18. Detection of pulmonary nodules at paediatric CT: maximum intensity projections and axial source images are complementary

    Kilburn-Toppin, Fleur; Arthurs, Owen J.; Tasker, Angela D.; Set, Patricia A.K. [Addenbrooke' s Hospital, Cambridge University Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Radiology, Box 219, Cambridge (United Kingdom)


    Maximum intensity projection (MIP) images might be useful in helping to differentiate small pulmonary nodules from adjacent vessels on thoracic multidetector CT (MDCT). The aim was to evaluate the benefits of axial MIP images over axial source images for the paediatric chest in an interobserver variability study. We included 46 children with extra-pulmonary solid organ malignancy who had undergone thoracic MDCT. Three radiologists independently read 2-mm axial and 10-mm MIP image datasets, recording the number of nodules, size and location, overall time taken and confidence. There were 83 nodules (249 total reads among three readers) in 46 children (mean age 10.4 {+-} 4.98 years, range 0.3-15.9 years; 24 boys). Consensus read was used as the reference standard. Overall, three readers recorded significantly more nodules on MIP images (228 vs. 174; P < 0.05), improving sensitivity from 67% to 77.5% (P < 0.05) but with lower positive predictive value (96% vs. 85%, P < 0.005). MIP images took significantly less time to read (71.6 {+-} 43.7 s vs. 92.9 {+-} 48.7 s; P < 0.005) but did not improve confidence levels. Using 10-mm axial MIP images for nodule detection in the paediatric chest enhances diagnostic performance, improving sensitivity and reducing reading time when compared with conventional axial thin-slice images. Axial MIP and axial source images are complementary in thoracic nodule detection. (orig.)

  19. Functional maintenance and structural flexibility of microbial communities perturbed by simulated intense rainfall in a pilot-scale membrane bioreactor.

    Sato, Yuya; Hori, Tomoyuki; Navarro, Ronald R; Habe, Hiroshi; Ogata, Atsushi


    Intense rainfall is one of the most serious and common natural events, causing the excessive inflow of rainwater into wastewater treatment plants. However, little is known about the impacts of rainwater dilution on the structure and function of the sludge microorganisms. Here, high-throughput sequencing of 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes was implemented to describe the microbial community dynamics during the simulated intense rainfall situation (event i) in which approximately 45 % of the sludge biomass was artificially overflowed by massive water supply in a pilot-scale membrane bioreactor. Thereafter, we investigated the functional and structural responses of the perturbed microbial communities to subsequent conditional changes, i.e., an increase in organic loading rate from 225 to 450 mg chemical oxygen demand (COD) l(-1) day(-1) (event ii) and an addition of a microbiota activator (event iii). Due to the event i, the COD removal declined to 78.2 %. This deterioration coincided with the decreased microbial diversity and the proliferation of the oligotrophic Aquabacterium sp. During the succeeding events ii and iii, the sludge biomass increased and the COD removal became higher (86.5-97.4 %). With the apparent recovery of the reactor performance, microbial communities became diversified and the compositions dynamically changed. Notably, various bacterial micropredators were highly enriched under the successive conditions, most likely being involved in the flexible reorganization of microbial communities. These results indicate that the activated sludge harbored functionally redundant microorganisms that were able to thrive and proliferate along with the conditional changes, thereby contributing to the functional maintenance of the membrane bioreactor.

  20. Changes of Physiological Tremor Following Maximum Intensity Exercise in Male and Female Young Swimmers

    Gajewski Jan


    Full Text Available Purpose. The aim of this study was to determine the changes in postural physiological tremor following maximum intensity effort performed on arm ergometer by young male and female swimmers. Methods. Ten female and nine male young swimmers served as subjects in the study. Forearm tremor was measured accelerometrically in the sitting position before the 30-second Wingate Anaerobic Test on arm ergometer and then 5, 15 and 30 minutes post-test. Results. Low-frequency tremor log-amplitude (L1−5 increased (repeated factor: p < 0.05 from −7.92 ± 0.45 to −7.44 ± 0.45 and from −6.81 ± 0.52 to −6.35 ± 0.58 in women and men, respectively (gender: p < 0.05 5 minute post-test. Tremor log-amplitude (L15−20 increased (repeated factor: p < 0.001 from −9.26 ± 0.70 to −8.59 ± 0.61 and from −8.79 ± 0.65 to −8.39 ± 0.79 in women and men, respectively 5 minute post-test. No effect of gender was found for high frequency range.The increased tremor amplitude was observed even 30 minute post-exercise. Mean frequency of tremor spectra gradually decreased post-exercises (p < 0.001. Conclusions. Exercise-induced changes in tremor were similar in males and females. A fatigue produced a decrement in the mean frequency of tremor what suggested decreased muscle stiffness post-exercise. Such changes intremorafter exercise may be used as the indicator of fatigue in the nervous system.

  1. Latitudinal Analysis of Rainfall Intensity and Mean Annual Precipitation in Chile Análisis Latitudinal de la Intensidad de Lluvias y Precipitación Media Anual en Chile

    Roberto Pizarro


    Full Text Available The study and analysis of precipitation has become a crucial tool in understanding the temporal and spatial behavior of water resources, in terms of availability and impact on extreme events. The objective of this study was to evaluate different rainfall parameters (intensities for 1-h duration D = 1 h and return periods of T = 5 and 100 yr, and mean annual precipitation for different latitudinal and climatic zones in Chile. We analyzed the information recorded on thousands of pluvial bands and rain gauges for 49 stations; this because it is unclear how rainfall intensities change along the country (though total amounts do, in addition to a lack of literature focused on ranges and amounts on the behavior of rainfall variables. The Gumbel probability distribution function (PDF and mathematical rainfall intensity formulas were used to develop intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves for each station. Maximum and minimum rainfall intensity values for T = 100 yr ranged from 8.79 (hyperarid zone to 40.17 mm h-1 (subhumid-humid zone. Total annual rainfall values ranged between 43.9 (hyperarid zone and 3891.0 mm yr-1 (humid zone. Additionally, the real maximum intensity registered on each station was analyzed, determining its exceedance probability. Likewise, multiple comparisons were made to detect significant differences between the gauge stations and different climatic zones using the Kruskal Wallis test (alpha = 0.05. Differences between maximum and minimum values registered for all stations were as much as 80 times for total rainfall amounts and 4.5 times for rainfall intensities (T = 100 yr. However, maximum rainfall intensities values were similar at different latitudes, suggesting the absence of correlation between maximum rainfall intensity and annual rainfall amount, as the latter variable increased gradually with latitude.El estudio y análisis de las precipitaciones se ha convertido en una herramienta vital para conocer el comportamiento

  2. Assessment and Monitoring Tumor Vascularity With Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Maximum Intensity Persistence Imaging

    Pysz, Marybeth A.; Foygel, Kira; Panje, Cedric M.; Needles, Andrew; Tian, Lu; Willmann, Jürgen K.


    Objectives Contrast-enhanced ultrasound imaging is increasingly being used in the clinic for assessment of tissue vascularity. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the effect of different contrast administration parameters on the in vivo ultrasound imaging signal in tumor-bearing mice using a maximum intensity persistence (MIP) algorithm and to evaluate the reliability of in vivo MIP imaging in assessing tumor vascularity. The potential of in vivo MIP imaging for monitoring tumor vascularity during antiangiogenic cancer treatment was further evaluated. Materials and Methods In intraindividual experiments, varying contrast microbubble concentrations (5 × 105, 5 × 106, 5 × 107, 5 × 108 microbubbles in 100 µL saline) and contrast injection rates (0.6, 1.2, and 2.4 mL/min) in subcutaneous tumor-bearing mice were applied and their effects on in vivo contrast-enhanced ultrasound MIP imaging plateau values were obtained using a dedicated small animal ultrasound imaging system (40 MHz). Reliability of MIP ultrasound imaging was tested following 2 injections of the same micro-bubble concentration (5 × 107 microbubbles at 1.2 mL/min) in the same tumors. In mice with subcutaneous human colon cancer xenografts, longitudinal contrast-enhanced ultrasound MIP imaging plateau values (baseline and at 48 hours) were compared between mice with and without antiangiogenic treatment (anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody). Ex vivo CD31 immunostaining of tumor tissue was used to correlate in vivo MIP imaging plateau values with microvessel density analysis. Results In vivo MIP imaging plateau values correlated significantly (P = 0.001) with contrast microbubble doses. At 3 different injection rates of 0.6, 1.2, and 2.4 mL/min, MIP imaging plateau values did not change significantly (P = 0.61). Following 2 injections with the same microbubble dose and injection rate, MIP imaging plateau values were obtained with high reliability with an intraclass correlation

  3. Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

    Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.


    Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

  4. Effects of Vegetation Cover and Rainfall Intensity on Sediment-Bound Nutrient Loss, Size Composition and Volume Fractal Dimension of Sediment Particles

    ZHANG Guan-Hua; LIU Guo-Bin; WANG Guo-Liang; WANG Yu-Xia


    Vegetation and rainfall are two important factors affecting soil erosion and thus resulting in nutrient loss in the Chinese Loess Plateau.A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of rainfall intensities (60,100 and 140 mm h-1) and vegetation (Caragana korshinskii) coverages (0%,30% and 80%) on soil loss,nutrient loss,and the composition and volume fractal dimension of eroded sediment particles under simulated rainfall conditions.The results showed that vegetation cover,rainfall intensity and their interaction all had significant effects on sediment transport and the sedimentbound nutrient loss.Higher rainfall intensity and lower coverage led to higher sediment and nutrient losses.Positive linear relationships were observed between soil loss and nutrient loss.The treatments showed more significant effects on the enrichment ratio (ER) of nitrogen (ERN) than organic matter (EROM) and phosphorus (ERP).Compared with the original surface soil,the eroded sediment contained more fine particles.Under the same coverage,the clay content significantly decreased with increasing rainfall intensity.The ER of sediment-bound nutrients was positively correlated with that of clay,suggesting that the clay fraction was preferentially eroded and soil nutrients were mainly adsorbed onto or contained within this fraction.There were increments in the fractal dimension of the sediment particles compared to that of the original surface soil.Moreover,the fractal dimension was positively correlated with clay,silt,and sediment-bound OM,N,and P contents,whereas it was negatively correlated with sand content.This study demonstrated that fractal dimension analysis can be used to characterize differences in particle-size distribution and nutrient loss associated with soil erosion.

  5. The northward shift of Meiyu rain belt and its possible association with rainfall intensity changes and the Pacific-Japan pattern

    Gao, Qingjiu; Sun, Yuting; You, Qinglong


    The meridional location change of Meiyu rain belt and its relationship with the rainfall intensity and circulation background changes for the period 1958-2009 are examined using daily rainfall datasets from 756 stations in China, the 6-h ERA-Interim reanalyses, CRU monthly temperature and daily outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results indicate that the Meiyu rain belt experienced a northward shift in the late 1990s in response to global warming. Moreover, the intensity of interannual and day-to-day variability of rainfall within Meiyu period has been increasing in the warming climate. The amplification of the variability within Meiyu period over the northern Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV) is much larger than that of the southern YHRV. The large difference in the trends of variance within the Meiyu period between these two regions induces a spatial varying for different rainfall categories in terms of intensity. More significant positive trends in heavy and extreme heavy rainfall occur over northern YHRV compared with southern YHRV, which is a crucial indicator of changes in the rain band, despite the observation of an increase in heavy and very heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events throughout the entire YHRV. A composite of the atmospheric circulation indicates that intense northward horizontal transport and the convergence of water vapor fluxes are the immediate causes of the rain band shift. Besides, through forcing a northward extended convection over the tropics, the Pacific-Japan (P-J) pattern induces a northward expansion of western Pacific Subtropical High, leading to intensified convergence and enhanced rainfall over Northern YHRV.

  6. Effect of rainfall intensity and slope steepness on the development of soil erosion in the Southern Cis-Ural region (A model experiment)

    Sobol, N. V.; Gabbasova, I. M.; Komissarov, M. A.


    The effect of rainfall intensity on the erosion of residual calcareous agrogray soils and clay-illuvial agrochernozems in the Southern Cis-Ural region on slopes of different inclination and vegetation type has been studied by simulating with a small-size sprinkler. It has been shown that soil loss linearly depends on rainfall intensity (2, 4, and 6 mm/min) and slope inclination (3° and 7°). When the rainfall intensity and duration, and the slope inclination increase, soil loss by erosion from agrogray soils increases higher than from agrochernozems. On the plowland with a slope of 3°, runoff begins 12, 10, and 5 min, on the average, after the beginning of rains at these intensities. When the slope increases to 7°, runoff begins earlier by 7, 6, and 4 min, respectively. After the beginning of runoff and with its increase by 1 mm, the soil loss from slopes of 3° and 7° reaches 4.2 and 25.7 t/ha on agrogray soils and 1.4 and 4.7 t/ha on agrochernozems, respectively. Fallow soils have higher erosion resistance, and the soil loss little depends on the slope gradient: it gradually increases to 0.3-1.0 t/ha per 1 mm of runoff with increasing rainfall intensity and duration. The content of physical clay in eroded material is higher than in the original soils. Fine fractions prevail in this material, which increases their humus content. The increase in rainfall intensity and duration to 4 and 6 mm/min results in the entrapment of coarse silt and sand by runoff.

  7. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Olaniya Olusegun Mayowa; Sahar Hadi Pour; Shamsuddin Shahid; Morteza Mohsenipour; Sobri Bin Harun; Arien Heryansyah; Tarmizi Ismail


    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  8. 基于支持向量机的微波链路雨强反演方法∗%Metho d and exp eriment of rainfall intensity inversion using a microwave link based on supp ort vector machine

    宋堃; 高太长; 刘西川; 印敏; 薛杨


    measures rainfall intensity more accurately because the propagation path of microwave is close to the surface. Many models for inversing rainfall intensity by rain-induced microwave attenuation have been put forward on account of the method advantages. The commonly used model for inversion of rain rate is given by International Telecommunication Union (ITU). However, the model presented by ITU ignores a number of meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity and air pressure, which to some degree reduces the accuracy of the rainfall inversion based on microwave link. Thus, based on the theory of support vector machine (SVM), an inversion method of the path rainfall intensity by using a microwave link is proposed. Starting from the theory of Mie scattering and the atmospheric gas absorption attenuation model, a model of rainfall intensity inversion of line-of-sight microwave links is proposed, which is based on support vector machine, the microwave rain attenuation characteristics and the Gamma drop-size distribution. One line-of-sight microwave link is designed and used to measure the microwave rain-induced attenuation and inverse rainfall. Compared with actual rainfall intensity measured by a disdrometer, inversion rainfall intensity shows a satisfactory result. The correlation coefficient of rain rate is inversed by microwave link based on SVM and that of disdrometer is higher than 0.6 mostly, and the maximum value is 0.9674;the minimum value of the root-mean-square error of the rain rate is 0.5780 mm/h; the minimum value of the error of accumulated rain amount is 0.0080 mm;the relative error of accumulated rain amount is less than 10%and its minimum value is 0.7425%. All these parameters above are superior to ITU’s. Therefore, the inversion result demonstrates the validity, feasibility and accuracy of rainfall inversion model using a microwave link based on SVM. The model we present is of great significance for further improving the accuracy of inversion of

  9. Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

    Svoboda Vojtěch


    Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

  10. Equações de chuvas intensas para o estado do Pará Intense rainfall equations for the state of Pará, Brazil

    Rodrigo O. R. de M. Souza


    Full Text Available As equações de chuvas intensas têm sido usadas como ferramenta importante para o dimensionamento de obras hidráulicas. Devido à grande carência de informações relativas às equações de chuvas intensas, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo a obtenção das relações de intensidade, duração e frequência de precipitação pluvial para o Estado do Pará, utilizando-se a metodologia da desagregação da chuva de 24 h. Foram utilizadas séries históricas de dados pluviométricos de 74 cidades do Estado do Pará, obtidas no Sistema de Informações Hidrológicas da Agência Nacional de Águas-ANA. As equações de intensidade-duração-frequência foram devidamente ajustadas e apresentaram bom ajuste, com coeficientes de determinação acima de 0,99. A maioria das estações (51,4% apresentou intensidade de precipitação entre 90 e 110 mm h-1, para uma duração de chuva de 30 min e um tempo de retorno de 15 anos. Pode-se perceber uma concentração das maiores precipitações na região próxima ao litoral do nordeste paraense e no sudeste da Ilha do Marajó.The intense rainfall equations have been used as an important tool for design of hydraulic structures. Considering the lack of intense rainfall equations, this study aimed to determine the relations of intensity, duration and frequency of intense rainfall in the Pará State (Brazil, using the one-day rain disaggregation method. In this research rainfall data of 74 cities in the State of Pará were used, obtained from the Hydrological Information System of the National Water Agency-ANA. The equations of intensity-duration-frequency were adjusted and presented good adjustment with coefficients of determination above 0.99. Most stations (51.4% showed intensity of precipitation between 90 and 110 mm h-1 for duration of 30 min and rainfall return period of 15 years. The highest rainfall intensities were in the region near the northeast coast of Pará State and southeast of the Marajo

  11. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.


    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  12. Estimativas de chuvas intensas para o Estado de Goiás Intense rainfall estimates for the Goiás State, Brazil

    Luiz F. C. de Oliveira


    -duration-frequency relations available to some municipal districts. It was also determined the relation between the precipitation of sixty minutes and one day duration for two years return period. The information obtained in this work was regionalized, allowing the generation of thematic aiming to estimate the rainfall height-duration-frequency relation for the places without registrations. The BellÂ’s model perfectly adjusted to the municipal districts that were studied, becoming an interesting alternative concerning to acquiring the height of intense rain from short series. The reconstruction of BellÂ’s model based on the regionalization of the adjusted parameters allowed the expansion of the equations that express the relation between the maximum precipitation for different durations and the return period with low values in the standard error of the estimate.

  13. The Winter Rainfall of Malaysia

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Tsay, Jenq-Dar; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Matsumoto, Jun


    .... The major cause of the rainfall maximum of Peninsular Malaysia is cold surge vortices (CSVs) and heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events propagating from the Philippine area and Borneo. In contrast, the major cause of the rainfall maximum of Borneo is these rain-producing disturbances trapped in Borneo. Disturbances of the former group are formed by the cold sur...

  14. Obtaining DDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall Data Using Bivariate Copula and Frequency Analysis

    Sadri, Sara; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    The traditional rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve is a reliable approach for representing the variation of rainfall intensity with duration for a given return period. In reality rainfall variables intensity, depth and duration are dependent and therefore a bivariate analysis using...... copulas can give a more accurate IDF curve. We study IDF curves using a copula in a bivariate frequency analysis of extreme rainfall. To be able to choose the most suitable copula among candidate copulas (i.e., Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank) we demonstrated IDF curves based on variation of depth...... with duration for a given return period and name them DDF (depth-duration-frequency) curves. The copula approach does not assume the rainfall variables are independent or jointly normally distributed. Rainfall series are extracted in three ways: (1) by maximum mean intensity; (2) by depth and duration...

  15. Analysis of simulated fluorescence intensities decays by a new maximum entropy method algorithm.

    Esposito, Rosario; Altucci, Carlo; Velotta, Raffaele


    A new algorithm for the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) is proposed for recovering the lifetime distribution in time-resolved fluorescence decays. The procedure is based on seeking the distribution that maximizes the Skilling entropy function subjected to the chi-squared constraint χ(2) ~ 1 through iterative linear approximations, LU decomposition of the Hessian matrix of the lagrangian problem and the Golden Section Search for backtracking. The accuracy of this algorithm has been investigated through comparisons with simulated fluorescence decays both of narrow and broad lifetime distributions. The proposed approach is capable to analyse datasets of up to 4,096 points with a discretization ranging from 100 to 1,000 lifetimes. A good agreement with non linear fitting estimates has been observed when the method has been applied to multi-exponential decays. Remarkable results have been also obtained for the broad lifetime distributions where the position is recovered with high accuracy and the distribution width is estimated within 3%. These results indicate that the procedure proposed generates MEM lifetime distributions that can be used to quantify the real heterogeneity of lifetimes in a sample.

  16. Main diurnal cycle pattern of rainfall in East Java

    Rais, Achmad Fahruddin; Yunita, Rezky


    The diurnal cycle pattern of rainfall was indicated as an intense feature in East Java. The research of diurnal cycle generally was only based on satellite estimation which had limitations in accuracy and temporal resolution. The hourly rainfall data of Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH) and gauge were blended using the best correction method between transformation distribution (DT) and quantile mapping (QM) to increase the accuracy. We used spatiotemporal composite to analyse the concentration patterns of maximum rainfall and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify the spatial and temporal dominant patterns of diurnal rainfall. QM was corrected CMORPH data since it was best method. The eastern region of East Java had a rainfall peak at 14 local time (LT) and the western region had a rainfall peak at 16 LT.

  17. Sensitivity of point scale runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

    A. J. Hearman


    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to south western Australian rainfall, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitions water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store are controlled by thresholds. For example, saturation excess is triggered when the soil water content reaches the storage capacity threshold. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and inturn, relating these to average storm intensities. By relating maximum soil infiltration capacities to saturated drainage rates (f*, we were able to split soils into two groups; those where all runoff is a result of infiltration excess alone (f*≤0.2 and those susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff (f*>0.2. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating saturated drainage rates to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by

  18. Regional estimation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves using generalized least squares regression of partial duration series statistics

    Madsen, H.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rosbjerg, Dan


    A general framework for regional analysis and modeling of extreme rainfall characteristics is presented. The model is based on the partial duration series (PDS) method that includes in the analysis all events above a threshold level. In the PDS model the average annual number of exceedances, the ...

  19. The differential effect of metabolic alkalosis on maximum force and rate of force development during repeated, high-intensity cycling.

    Siegler, Jason C; Marshall, Paul W M; Raftry, Sean; Brooks, Cristy; Dowswell, Ben; Romero, Rick; Green, Simon


    The purpose of this investigation was to assess the influence of sodium bicarbonate supplementation on maximal force production, rate of force development (RFD), and muscle recruitment during repeated bouts of high-intensity cycling. Ten male and female (n = 10) subjects completed two fixed-cadence, high-intensity cycling trials. Each trial consisted of a series of 30-s efforts at 120% peak power output (maximum graded test) that were interspersed with 30-s recovery periods until task failure. Prior to each trial, subjects consumed 0.3 g/kg sodium bicarbonate (ALK) or placebo (PLA). Maximal voluntary contractions were performed immediately after each 30-s effort. Maximal force (F max) was calculated as the greatest force recorded over a 25-ms period throughout the entire contraction duration while maximal RFD (RFD max) was calculated as the greatest 10-ms average slope throughout that same contraction. F max declined similarly in both the ALK and PLA conditions, with baseline values (ALK: 1,226 ± 393 N; PLA: 1,222 ± 369 N) declining nearly 295 ± 54 N [95% confidence interval (CI) = 84-508 N; P force vs. maximum rate of force development during a whole body fatiguing task.

  20. Daily rainfall variability over northeastern Argentina in the La Plata River basin.

    García, Norberto O; Pedraza, Raúl A


    We did a brief description of the climatic behavior and after this we analyzed the temporal variation in the total number of days a year with rainfall and the number of days a year with rainfall above the 100 mm threshold at the rain gauging stations in northeastern Argentina south of the La Plata River basin. The results show an increase both in the frequency of daily rainfall, especially during the winter season, and the frequency of days with heavy rainfall starting in the early 1970s. The increase in frequency of occurrence is more significant in the case of heavy rainfall. The annual maximum rainfall was calculated for periods of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 consecutive days at regional rain gauging stations for the respective historical periods, and the rain intensity-duration-return period curves (IDT) were determined on a frequency analysis. The IDT curves were compared with rainfall intensity-duration data of critical storms occurring in the last decades. We noticed that the rain intensities of critical storms (mostly convective) widely exceeded the intensities given by the 100-year IDT curves, particularly for short durations. The increase in both the frequency of heavy rainfall occurrence and rain intensity from the 1970s onward shows an increase in frequency and intensity of the meso-scale convective systems in the region resulting from climatic change. These systems tend to produce rainfall of very high intensity that is spatially concentrated and which generally produces significant floods in the local rivers.

  1. A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based ewline on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall (Reintal, German Alps

    M. Krautblatter


    Full Text Available A total of more than 140 000 kg of small-magnitude rockfall deposits was measured in eight rockfall collectors of altogether 940 m2 in size between 1999–2003 below a 400–600 m high rock face in the Reintal, German Alps. Measurements were conducted with a temporal resolution up to single days to attribute rockfall intensity to observed triggering events. Precipitation was assessed by a rain gauge and high-resolution precipitation radar. Intense rainstorms triggered previously unreported rockfall intensities of up to 300 000 g/(m2h that we term "secondary rockfall event." In comparison to dry periods without frost (10−2g/(m2h, rockfall deposition increased by 2–218 times during wet freeze-thaw cycles and by 56-thousand to 40-million times during secondary rockfall events. We obtained three nonlinear logistic growth models that relate rockfall intensity [g/(m2h] to rainfall intensity [mm/h]. The models account for different rock wall intermediate storage volumes, triggering thresholds and storage depletion. They apply to all rockfall collector positions with correlations from R2=0.89 to 0.99. Thus, the timing of more than 90% of the encountered rockfall is explained by the triggering factor rainfall intensity. A combination of rockfall response models with radar-supported storm cell forecast could be used to anticipate hazardous rockfall events, and help to reduce the exposure of individuals and mobile structures (e.g. cable cars to the hazard. According to meteorological recordings, the frequency of these intense rockfall events is likely to increase in response to global warming.

  2. Recent Changes in Floodplain Urban Development and in Intense Rainfall Patterns: Evidence and Effects for the Reclamation Network in North-Eastern Italy

    Tarolli, P.; Sofia, G.; Prosdocimi, M.; Dalla Fontana, G.


    Within the wide approach of watershed management, the crucial role of floodplains in hydrological processes and runoff generation, in particular during flood events, is well known. The recent changes in land use and/or intense rainfall patterns associated to climate changes, however, add complexity to the analysis of the hydrologic response. This study investigates and displays evidences and effects of land use changes and climatic changes in a small floodplain area in the north east of Italy. As in other countries in Europe, over the past half-century, intense urban and agricultural land uses changed the drainage networks, causing serious hydraulic dysfunctions. In this work we focused the research on the network drainage density and storage capacity, considering that they are the main requirements for hydraulic infrastructures and that the storage of water is crucial for any water management strategy. The effects of the changes in the network parameters have been then further investigated using the Network Saturation Index (NSI) that quantifies how fast an area is saturated by a design rainfall and can give an idea of the delay of the watershed response respect to the rainfall peak. Over the past half-century, the study site witnessed a drastic reduction of the storage volume, resulting in shorter times for saturation especially for storm events having a shorter return period and for events that were less critical in the past. For our case study, climatic evidence shows that the rainfall regime is highly irregular, with intense events taking an increasing role in determining the total precipitation over the past half-century. Considering this climatic trend that cannot be controlled, our study suggests to carefully plan the changes in the drainage networks, as these changes might seriously constrain the functionality of the reclamation system, especially for rather frequent rainfall events not necessarily associated with extreme meteorological conditions or with

  3. Uncertainty evaluation of design rainfall for urban flood risk analysis.

    Fontanazza, C M; Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V


    A reliable and long dataset describing urban flood locations, volumes and depths would be an ideal prerequisite for assessing flood frequency distributions. However, data are often piecemeal and long-term hydraulic modelling is often adopted to estimate floods from historical rainfall series. Long-term modelling approaches are time- and resource-consuming, and synthetically designed rainfalls are often used to estimate flood frequencies. The present paper aims to assess the uncertainty of such an approach and for suggesting improvements in the definition of synthetic rainfall data for flooding frequency analysis. According to this aim, a multivariate statistical analysis based on a copula method was applied to rainfall features (total depth, duration and maximum intensity) to generate synthetic rainfalls that are more consistent with historical events. The procedure was applied to a real case study, and the results were compared with those obtained by simulating other typical synthetic rainfall events linked to intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. The copula-based multi-variate analysis is more robust and adapts well to experimental flood locations even if it is more complex and time-consuming. This study demonstrates that statistical correlations amongst rainfall frequency, duration, volume and peak intensity can partially explain the weak reliability of flood-frequency analyses based on synthetic rainfall events.

  4. Analysis of extreme rainfall in the Ebre Observatory (Spain)

    Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Peña, Juan Carlos; Rius, Anna; Solé, J. Germán; Redaño, Ángel


    The relationship between maximum rainfall rates for time intervals between 5 min and 24 h has been studied from almost a century (1905-2003) of rainfall data registered in the Ebre Observatory (Tarragona, Spain). Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and their master equation for every return period in the location have been obtained, as well as the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for all the considered durations. In particular, the value of the 1-day PMP has resulted to be 415 mm, very similar to previous estimations of this variable for the same location. Extreme rainfall events recorded in this period have been analyzed and classified according to their temporal scale. Besides the three main classes of cases corresponding to the main meteorological scales, local, mesoscale, and synoptic, a fourth group constituted by complex events with high-intensity rates for a large range of durations has been identified also, indicating the contribution of different scale meteorological processes acting together in the origin of the rainfall. A weighted intensity index taking into account the maximum rainfall rate in representative durations of every meteorological scale has been calculated for every extreme rainfall event in order to reflect their complexity.

  5. Atmospheric circulation patterns, cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally intense convective rainfall associated with debris flow initiation in the Dolomite Alps of northeastern Italy

    Underwood, S. Jeffrey; Schultz, Michael D.; Berti, Metteo; Gregoretti, Carlo; Simoni, Alessandro; Mote, Thomas L.; Saylor, Anthony M.


    The Dolomite Alps of northeastern Italy experience debris flows with great frequency during the summer months. An ample supply of unconsolidated material on steep slopes and a summer season climate regime characterized by recurrent thunderstorms combine to produce an abundance of these destructive hydro-geologic events. In the past, debris flow events have been studied primarily in the context of their geologic and geomorphic characteristics. The atmospheric contribution to these mass-wasting events has been limited to recording rainfall and developing intensity thresholds for debris mobilization. This study aims to expand the examination of atmospheric processes that preceded both locally intense convective rainfall (LICR) and debris flows in the Dolomite region. 500 hPa pressure level plots of geopotential heights were constructed for a period of 3 days prior to debris flow events to gain insight into the synoptic-scale processes which provide an environment conducive to LICR in the Dolomites. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash data recorded at the meso-scale were incorporated to assess the convective environment proximal to debris flow source regions. Twelve events were analyzed and from this analysis three common synoptic-scale circulation patterns were identified. Evaluation of CG flashes at smaller spatial and temporal scales illustrated that convective processes vary in their production of CF flashes (total number) and the spatial distribution of flashes can also be quite different between events over longer periods. During the 60 min interval immediately preceding debris flow a majority of cases exhibited spatial and temporal colocation of LICR and CG flashes. Also a number of CG flash parameters were found to be significantly correlated to rainfall intensity prior to debris flow initiation.

  6. Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

    Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun


    The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  7. Improvement of export coefficient model for N and P based on rainfall intensity and its application%基于流域降雨强度的氮磷输出系数模型改进及应用

    徐立红; 陈成广; 胡保卫; 邢波; 叶潞洁


    In order to study the output loads of TN (total nitrogen) and TP (total phosphorus) from agricultural non-point sources in Cao'e River basin in Shaoxing, an improved export coefficient model for TN and TP was firstly established. According to the theory of black box, the TN and TP from rainfall and agricultural pollution sources were respectively integrated to the total amount of pollutant in this model, and the output intensity of TN and TP in the transportation process was taken into account for the pollutant producing coefficient for the basin, which reflected the effects on the output of TN and TP due to the various losses during the process of rainfall runoff and pollutant transport. After that, the total output loads of TN and TP from agricultural non-point sources during 2005-2010 were estimated using this improved export coefficient model, in which the basic data were obtained from Shaoxing Statistical Yearbook. When the values predicated by the model were compared with those measured by the experiments, the authors found that the total output loads of TN and TP from agricultural non-point sources during 2005-2010 were greatly influenced by rainfall. The total output loads of TN and TP had a positive exponential relationship with the annual rainfall intensity, and therefore a new improved export coefficient model for TN and TP based on rainfall intensity was also established. Finally, this new model was applied to estimate the output loads of TN and TP from various agricultural pollution sources in Cao'e River basin. The estimation results showed that the total output loads of TN were annually far greater than that of TP from agricultural non-point sources during 2005-2010, and the maximum was up to 20.67 times, but with the influence of annual rainfall intensity, they presented uneven temporal distribution during 2005-2010, and the annual total output loads of TN ranged from 5456.60 to 12268.38 t and those of TP ranged from 393.19 to 820.65 t. In those

  8. Quantifying the climate change-induced variations in Saskatoon's Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves using stochastic rainfall generators and K-nearest neighbors

    Shahabul Alam, Md.; Nazemi, Alireza; Elshorbagy, Amin


    Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are among standard design criteria for various engineering applications, such as storm water management systems. Warming climate, however, changes the extreme rainfall quantiles represented by the IDF curves. This study attempts to construct the future IDF curves under possible climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a stochastic rainfall generator is used to spatially downscale the daily projections of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from coarse grid resolution to the point scale. The stochastically downscaled daily rainfall realizations can be further disaggregated to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall series using a deterministic disaggregation scheme developed based on the K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN) method. We applied this framework for constructing the future IDF curves in the city of Saskatoon, Canada. As a model development step, the sensitivity of the K-NN disaggregation model to the number of nearest neighbors (i.e. window size) is evaluated during the baseline periods. The optimum window size is assigned based on the performance in reproducing the historical IDF curves. The optimum windows identified for 1-hour and 5-min temporal resolutions are then used to produce the future hourly and consequently, 5-min resolution rainfall based on the K-NN simulations. By using the simulated hourly and sub-hourly rainfall series and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution future changes in IDF curves and associated uncertainties are quantified using a large ensemble of projections obtained for the CGCM3.1 and HadCM3 based on A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios in case of CMIP3 and RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in case of CMIP5 datasets. The constructed IDF curves for the city of Saskatoon are then compared with corresponding historical relationships at various durations and/or return periods and are discussed based on different models, emission scenarios and/or simulation release (i.e. CMIP3 vs. CMIP5).

  9. Rainfall Threshold of Triggering Landslide-an Example of Typhoon Soudelor in 2015

    Lin, Yong-Jun; Lin, Ji-Hua; Tan, Yih-Chi


    Typhoon Soudelor (2015) stroke southern New Taipei City, Taiwan. It brought huge damages to Xindian District and Wulai District, and those damages including 7 large landslides, blockages to access roads, and strands of hundreds of residents. The main reasons of landslide due to the high intensity rain brought by Typhoon Soudelor. The rain gauges near the sites of landslides showed the maximum hourly rainfall of 70 (mm) and the accumulative rainfall is 500-800 (mm). The largest area of the above-mentioned landslide is 9.7 ha. According to the study conducted in (Cheng et. al, 2014), the average 3hr-rainfall intensity and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall can used for indicators for the rainfall threshold of triggering landslide. Based on the historical landslide events, three rainfall threshold of triggering landslide can be gotten for probability of 30%, 60%, and 90% respectively. Using the rainfall data of Typhoon Soudelor, it is found that the rainfall recording in gauges located very near the line of probability of 90%. The average 3hr-rainfall intensity of 70 (mm/hr) and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall of 700 (mm) are used for probability of 90%. As for probability of 30%, the 3hr-rainfall intensity is 30 (mm/hr) and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall is 300 (mm). As for probability of 60%, the 3hr-rainfall intensity is 50 (mm/hr) and 24hr-accumulative-rainfall is 500 (mm). The curve of trigging landslide adopted in this study is ellipse, and may be modified by verifying more data.

  10. Case report: maximum-intensity projection and minimum-intensity projection of computed tomography are helpful in the diagnosis of Budd-Chiari syndrome in complicated liver cirrhosis.

    Jeng, K-S; Huang, C-C; Lin, C-K; Lin, C-C; Chen, K-H


    Early detection of Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) to give the appropriate therapy in time is crucial. Angiography remains the golden standard to diagnose BCS. However, to establish the diagnosis of BCS in complicated cirrhotic patients remains a challenge. We used maximum intensity projection (Max IP) and minimum intensity projection (Min IP) from computed tomographic (CT) images to detect this syndrome in such a patient. A 55-year-old man with a history of chronic hepatitis B infection and alcoholism had undergone previously a left lateral segmentectomy for hepatic epitheloid angiomyolipoma (4.6 × 3.5 × 3.3 cm) with a concomitant splenectomy. Liver decompensation with intractable ascites and jaundice occurred 4 months later. The reformed images of the venous phase of enhanced CT images with Max IP and Min IP showed middle hepatic vein thrombosis. He then underwent a living-related donor liver transplantation with a right liver graft from his daughter. Intraoperatively, we noted thrombosis of his middle hepatic vein protruding into inferior vena cava. The postoperative course was unevenful. Microscopic findings revealed micronodular cirrhosis with mixed inflammation in the portal areas. Some liver lobules exhibited congestion and sinusoidal dilation compatible with venous occlusion clinically. We recommend Max IP and Min IP of CT images as simple and effective techniques to establish the diagnosis of BCS, especially in complicated cirrhotic patients, thereby avoiding invasive interventional procedures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Validation of new 3D post processing algorithm for improved maximum intensity projections of MR angiography acquisitions in the brain

    Bosmans, H.; Verbeeck, R.; Vandermeulen, D.; Suetens, P.; Wilms, G.; Maaly, M.; Marchal, G.; Baert, A.L. [Louvain Univ. (Belgium)


    The objective of this study was to validate a new post processing algorithm for improved maximum intensity projections (mip) of intracranial MR angiography acquisitions. The core of the post processing procedure is a new brain segmentation algorithm. Two seed areas, background and brain, are automatically detected. A 3D region grower then grows both regions towards each other and this preferentially towards white regions. In this way, the skin gets included into the final `background region` whereas cortical blood vessels and all brain tissues are included in the `brain region`. The latter region is then used for mip. The algorithm runs less than 30 minutes on a full dataset on a Unix workstation. Images from different acquisition strategies including multiple overlapping thin slab acquisition, magnetization transfer (MT) MRA, Gd-DTPA enhanced MRA, normal and high resolution acquisitions and acquisitions from mid field and high field systems were filtered. A series of contrast enhanced MRA acquisitions obtained with identical parameters was filtered to study the robustness of the filter parameters. In all cases, only a minimal manual interaction was necessary to segment the brain. The quality of the mip was significantly improved, especially in post Gd-DTPA acquisitions or using MT, due to the absence of high intensity signals of skin, sinuses and eyes that otherwise superimpose on the angiograms. It is concluded that the filter is a robust technique to improve the quality of MR angiograms.

  12. Space-time organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall: effects on the identification of the rainfall threshold relationships

    Borga, Marco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Creutin, Jean Dominique; Marra, Francesco


    Debris flow occurrence is generally forecasted by means of empirical rainfall depth-duration thresholds which are often derived based on rain gauge observations (Guzzetti et al., 2008). Rainfall sampling errors, related to the sparse nature of raingauge data, lead to underestimation of the intensity-duration thresholds (Nikolopoulos et al., 2014, Nikolopoulos et al., 2015). This underestimation may be large when debris flows are triggered by convective rainfall events, characterized by limited spatial extent, turning into less efficient forecasts of debris flow occurrence. This work investigates the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall patterns and its effects on the derived rainfall threshold relationships using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data for 82 debris flows events occurred in the eastern Italian Alps. We analyze the spatial organization of rainfall depths relative to the rainfall occurred over the debris flows initiation point using the distance from it as the main coordinate observing that, on average, debris flows initiation points are characterized by a maximum in the rainfall depth field. We investigate the relationship between spatial organization and duration of rainfall pointing out that the rainfall underestimation is larger for the shorter durations and increases regularly as the distance between rainfall measurement location and debris flow initiation point increases. We introduce an analytical framework that explains how the combination of the mean rainfall depth spatial pattern and its relationship with rainfall duration causes the bias observed in the raingauge-based thresholds. The consistency of this analytical framework is proved by using a Monte Carlo sampling of radar rainfall fields. References Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Stark, C.P., 2008. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5, 3-17, 10.1007/s10346-625 007-0112-1 Nikolopoulos, E.I., S

  13. Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine


    The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

  14. Numerical Simulation of the Topographical Change in Korea Mountain Area by Intense Rainfall and Consequential Debris Flow

    Byong-Hee Jun


    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to simulate the topographical changes associated with rainfall and the consequential debris flow using terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging. Three rainfall events between July 9 and July 14, 2009, triggered a number of debris flows at Jecheon County in Korea. Rain fell at a rate of 64 mm/h, producing 400 mm of total accumulation during this period. Tank simulation model for SWI (Soil Water Index estimated the water stored beneath the ground and debris flow occurrence in study area. For the LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging survey, the terrestrial laser scanning system RIEGL LMS-Z390i consists of an accurate and fast 3D scanner, associated RTK GPS system. The DEM derived from LiDAR enabled the debris flow to be mapped and analyzed in great detail. The estimated affected area and erosion/deposition volumes by debris flow were compared with two-dimensional numerical simulation. The simulation results were sufficiently in good agreement with the debris flow track, and a success rate of over 90% was achieved with a simulation time of 300 s. A comparison of the simulated and surveyed results based on deposition volume yields a success rate of over 97% with 350 s of simulation time.

  15. Rainfall Characterization In An Arid Area

    Bazaraa, A. S.; Ahmed, Shamim


    The objective of this work is to characterize the rainfall in Doha which lies in an arid region. The rainfall data included daily rainfall depth since 1962 and the hyetographs of the individual storms since 1976. The rainfall is characterized by high variability and severe thunderstorms which are of limited geographical extent. Four probability distributions were used to fit the maximum rainfall in 24 hours and the annual rainfall depth. The extreme value distribution was found to have the be...

  16. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.


    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  17. Direct reconstruction of the source intensity distribution of a clinical linear accelerator using a maximum likelihood expectation maximization algorithm.

    Papaconstadopoulos, P; Levesque, I R; Maglieri, R; Seuntjens, J


    Direct determination of the source intensity distribution of clinical linear accelerators is still a challenging problem for small field beam modeling. Current techniques most often involve special equipment and are difficult to implement in the clinic. In this work we present a maximum-likelihood expectation-maximization (MLEM) approach to the source reconstruction problem utilizing small fields and a simple experimental set-up. The MLEM algorithm iteratively ray-traces photons from the source plane to the exit plane and extracts corrections based on photon fluence profile measurements. The photon fluence profiles were determined by dose profile film measurements in air using a high density thin foil as build-up material and an appropriate point spread function (PSF). The effect of other beam parameters and scatter sources was minimized by using the smallest field size ([Formula: see text] cm(2)). The source occlusion effect was reproduced by estimating the position of the collimating jaws during this process. The method was first benchmarked against simulations for a range of typical accelerator source sizes. The sources were reconstructed with an accuracy better than 0.12 mm in the full width at half maximum (FWHM) to the respective electron sources incident on the target. The estimated jaw positions agreed within 0.2 mm with the expected values. The reconstruction technique was also tested against measurements on a Varian Novalis Tx linear accelerator and compared to a previously commissioned Monte Carlo model. The reconstructed FWHM of the source agreed within 0.03 mm and 0.11 mm to the commissioned electron source in the crossplane and inplane orientations respectively. The impact of the jaw positioning, experimental and PSF uncertainties on the reconstructed source distribution was evaluated with the former presenting the dominant effect.

  18. Relations between soil surface roughness, tortuosity, tillage treatments, rainfall intensity and soil and water losses from a red yellow latosol

    Julieta Bramorski


    Full Text Available The soil surface roughness increases water retention and infiltration, reduces the runoff volume and speed and influences soil losses by water erosion. Similarly to other parameters, soil roughness is affected by the tillage system and rainfall volume. Based on these assumptions, the main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of tillage treatments on soil surface roughness (RR and tortuosity (T and to investigate the relationship with soil and water losses in a series of simulated rainfall events. The field study was carried out at the experimental station of EMBRAPA Southeastern Cattle Research Center in São Carlos (Fazenda Canchim, in São Paulo State, Brazil. Experimental plots of 33 m² were treated with two tillage practices in three replications, consisting of: untilled (no-tillage soil (NTS and conventionally tilled (plowing plus double disking soil (CTS. Three successive simulated rain tests were applied in 24 h intervals. The three tests consisted of a first rain of 30 mm/h, a second of 30 mm/h and a third rain of 70 mm/h. Immediately after tilling and each rain simulation test, the surface roughness was measured, using a laser profile meter. The tillage treatments induced significant changes in soil surface roughness and tortuosity, demonstrating the importance of the tillage system for the physical surface conditions, favoring water retention and infiltration in the soil. The increase in surface roughness by the tillage treatments was considerably greater than its reduction by rain action. The surface roughness and tortuosity had more influence on the soil volume lost by surface runoff than in the conventional treatment. Possibly, other variables influenced soil and water losses from the no-tillage treatments, e.g., soil type, declivity, slope length, among others not analyzed in this study.

  19. How diffusivity, thermocline and incident light intensity modulate the dynamics of deep chlorophyll maximum in Tyrrhenian Sea.

    Valenti, Davide; Denaro, Giovanni; Spagnolo, Bernardo; Conversano, Fabio; Brunet, Christophe


    During the last few years theoretical works have shed new light and proposed new hypotheses on the mechanisms which regulate the spatio-temporal behaviour of phytoplankton communities in marine pelagic ecosystems. Despite this, relevant physical and biological issues, such as effects of the time-dependent mixing in the upper layer, competition between groups, and dynamics of non-stationary deep chlorophyll maxima, are still open questions. In this work, we analyze the spatio-temporal behaviour of five phytoplankton populations in a real marine ecosystem by using a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion-taxis model. The study is performed, taking into account the seasonal variations of environmental variables, such as light intensity, thickness of upper mixed layer and profiles of vertical turbulent diffusivity, obtained starting from experimental findings. Theoretical distributions of phytoplankton cell concentration was converted in chlorophyll concentration, and compared with the experimental profiles measured in a site of the Tyrrhenian Sea at four different times (seasons) of the year, during four different oceanographic cruises. As a result we find a good agreement between theoretical and experimental distributions of chlorophyll concentration. In particular, theoretical results reveal that the seasonal changes of environmental variables play a key role in the phytoplankton distribution and determine the properties of the deep chlorophyll maximum. This study could be extended to other marine ecosystems to predict future changes in the phytoplankton biomass due to global warming, in view of devising strategies to prevent the decline of the primary production and the consequent decrease of fish species.

  20. MR tractography; Visualization of structure of nerve fiber system from diffusion weighted images with maximum intensity projection method

    Kinosada, Yasutomi; Okuda, Yasuyuki (Mie Univ., Tsu (Japan). School of Medicine); Ono, Mototsugu (and others)


    We developed a new noninvasive technique to visualize the anatomical structure of the nerve fiber system in vivo, and named this technique magnetic resonance (MR) tractography and the acquired image an MR tractogram. MR tractography has two steps. One is to obtain diffusion-weighted images sensitized along axes appropriate for depicting the intended nerve fibers with anisotropic water diffusion MR imaging. The other is to extract the anatomical structure of the nerve fiber system from a series of diffusion-weighted images by the maximum intensity projection method. To examine the clinical usefulness of the proposed technique, many contiguous, thin (3 mm) coronal two-dimensional sections of the brain were acquired sequentially in normal volunteers and selected patients with paralyses, on a 1.5 Tesla MR system (Signa, GE) with an ECG-gated Stejskal-Tanner pulse sequence. The structure of the nerve fiber system of normal volunteers was almost the same as the anatomy. The tractograms of patients with paralyses clearly showed the degeneration of nerve fibers and were correlated with clinical symptoms. MR tractography showed great promise for the study of neuroanatomy and neuroradiology. (author).

  1. Prediction of radiographic progression in synovitis-positive joints on maximum intensity projection of magnetic resonance imaging in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Akai, Takanori; Taniguchi, Daigo; Oda, Ryo; Asada, Maki; Toyama, Shogo; Tokunaga, Daisaku; Seno, Takahiro; Kawahito, Yutaka; Fujii, Yosuke; Ito, Hirotoshi; Fujiwara, Hiroyoshi; Kubo, Toshikazu


    Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with maximum intensity projection (MRI-MIP) is an easy, useful imaging method to evaluate synovitis in rheumatoid hands. However, the prognosis of synovitis-positive joints on MRI-MIP has not been clarified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between synovitis visualized by MRI-MIP and joint destruction on X-rays in rheumatoid hands. The wrists, metacarpophalangeal (MP) joints, and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints of both hands (500 joints in total) were evaluated in 25 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Synovitis was scored from grade 0 to 2 on the MRI-MIP images. The Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade were used for radiographic evaluation. The relationships between the MIP score and the progression of radiographic scores and between the MIP score and bone marrow edema on MRI were analyzed using the trend test. As the MIP score increased, the Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade progressed severely. The rate of bone marrow edema-positive joints also increased with higher MIP scores. MRI-MIP imaging of RA hands is a clinically useful method that allows semi-quantitative evaluation of synovitis with ease and can be used to predict joint destruction.

  2. Correlation and causal relationship between GPS water vapor measurements and rainfall intensities in a tropical region (Tahiti-French Polynesia)

    Serafini, J.; Sichoix, L.; Barriot, J.-P.; Fadil, A.


    We processed a eight-year time series (2001-2008) of zenith wet delay and associated precipitable water (PW) contents from the permanent GPS station THTI (OGT) and a corresponding precipitation time series from the pluviometer of the Matatia valley (7 km South East from the GPS receiver). Daily GPS data were obtained (including zenith total delay and North and East gradients) by applying the PPP strategy of the GIPSY-OASIS II package w.r.t. IGS final products. We used the Saastamoinen model to extract the hydrostatic part of the delay. Taking into account surface meteorological measurements, we transformed the resulting wet delay into an estimate of PW above the receiver. The precipitation dataset consisted of rainfall gauge measurements spanning the same period provided by the "Direction de l'Equipement" (GEGDP). This work poses a preliminary diagnostic on the evolution of PW and precipitations over French Polynesia with emphasis on a broad range of timescales, from seasonal to diurnal components. Before this study, no monitoring system had provided accurate and quasi continuous measures of PW in French Polynesia.

  3. Landscape aridity, fire severity and rainfall intensity as controls on debris flow frequency after the 2009 Black Saturday Wildfires in Victoria

    Nyman, Petter; Sherwin, Christopher; Sheridan, Gary; Lane, Patrick


    This study uses aerial imagery and field surveys to develop a statistical model for determining debris flow susceptibility in a landscape with variable terrain, soil and vegetation properties. A measure of landscape scale debris flow response was obtained by recording all debris flow affected drainage lines in the first year after fire in a ~258 000 ha forested area that was burned by the 2009 Black Saturday Wildfire in Victoria. A total of 12 500 points along the drainage network were sampled from catchments ranging in size from 0.0001 km2to 75 km2. Local slope and the attributes of the drainage areas (including the spatially averaged peak intensity) were extracted for each sample point. A logistic regression was used to model how debris flow susceptibility varies with the normalised burn ratio (dNBR, from Landsat imagery), rainfall intensity (from rainfall radar), slope (from DEM) and aridity (from long-term radiation, temperature and rainfall data).The model of debris flow susceptibility produced a good fit with the observed debris flow response of drainage networks within the burned area and was reliable in distinguishing between drainage lines which produced debris flows and those which didn't. The performance of the models was tested through multiple iterations of fitting and testing using unseen data. The local channel slope captured the effect of scale on debris flow susceptibility with debris flow probability approaching zero as the channel slope decreased with increasing drainage area. Aridity emerged as an important predictor of debris flow susceptibility, with increased likelihood of debris flows in drier parts of the landscape, thus reinforcing previous research in the region showing that post-fire surface runoff from wet Eucalypt forests is insufficient for initiating debris flows. Fire severity, measured as dNBR, was also a very important predictor. The inclusion of local channel slope as a predictor of debris flow susceptibility proved to be an

  4. [Runoff and sediment yielding processes on red soil engineering accumulation containing gravels by a simulated rainfall experiment].

    Shi, Qian-hua; Wang, Wen-long; Guo, Ming-ming; Bai, Yun; Deng, Li-qiang; Li, Jian-ming; Li, Yao-lin


    Engineering accumulation formed in production and construction projects is characterized by unique structure and complex material composition. Characteristics of soil erosion on the engineering accumulation significantly differ from those on farmland. An artificially simulated rainfall experiment was carried out to investigate the effects of rainfall intensity on the processes of runoff and sediment yielding on the engineering accumulation of different gravel contents (0%, 10%, 20% and 30%) in red soil regions. Results showed that the initial time of runoff generation decreased with increases in rainfall intensity and gravel content, the decreased amplitudes being about 48.5%-77.9% and 4.2%-34.2%, respectively. The initial time was found to be a power function of rainfall intensity. Both runoff velocity and runoff rate manifested a trend of first rising and then in a steady state with runoff duration. Rainfall intensity was found to be the main factor influencing runoff velocity and runoff rate, whereas the influence of gravel content was not significant. About 10% of gravel content was determined to be a critical value in the influence of gravel content on runoff volume. For the underlying surface of 10% gravel content, the runoff volume was least at rainfall intensity of 1.0 mm · min(-1) and maximum at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). The runoff volume in- creased 10%-60% with increase in rainfall intensity. Sediment concentration showed a sharp decline in first 6 min and then in a stable state in rest of time. Influence of rainfall intensity on sediment concentration decreased as gravel content increased. Gravels could reduce sediment yield significantly at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). Sediment yield was found to be a linear function of rainfall intensity and gravel content.

  5. [Polish regulations on maximum admissible intensities for electric and magnetic frequencies of 60 Hz and the European Union recommendations for electrical power engineering].

    Groszko, Marian


    Electric and magnetic fields of 50 Hz from electric power devices affect not only workers, but also the general population, as these devices are also located in populated areas, hence the duality of regulations on maximum admissible intensities. This paper presents these regulations and discusses in detail the changes of 2001. Based on the Polish regulations, hygienic evaluation of electric power devices has been attempted. The Polish regulations on the 50 Hz electromagnetic fields were compared with relevant international regulations of CENELEC and the European Union recommendations. Our maximum admissible intensities have been found to conform with the international standards.

  6. Rainfall simulation in education

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia


    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  7. Determination of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides by a probabilistic and empirical method

    J. Huang


    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced landslides not only cause property loss, but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in mountainous areas in China. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent with rainfall threshold values used in an early warning system at a regional scale for the occurrence of landslides. However, the limited availability of data always causes difficulties. In this paper we present a method to calculate rainfall threshold values with limited data sets for the two rainfall parameters: maximum hourly rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The method has been applied to the Huangshan region, in Anhui Province, China. Four early warning levels (Zero, Outlook, Attention, and Warning have been adopted and the corresponding rainfall threshold values have been defined by probability lines. A validation procedure showed that this method can significantly enhance the effectiveness of a warning system, and finally reduce the risk from shallow landslides in mountainous regions.

  8. Obtaining DDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall Data Using Bivariate Copula and Frequency Analysis

    Sadri, Sara; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;


    of individual rainfall events; and (3) by storage volume and duration. In each case we used partial duration series (PDS) to extract extreme rainfall variables. The DDF curves derived from each method are presented and compared. This study examines extreme rainfall data from catchment Vedbæ k Renseanlæ g...... with duration for a given return period and name them DDF (depth-duration-frequency) curves. The copula approach does not assume the rainfall variables are independent or jointly normally distributed. Rainfall series are extracted in three ways: (1) by maximum mean intensity; (2) by depth and duration......, situated near Copenhagen in Denmark. For rainfall extracted using method 2, the marginal distribution of depth was found to fit the Generalized Pareto distribution while duration was found to fit the Gamma distribution, using the method of L-moments. The volume was fit with a generalized Pareto...

  9. Qualitative assessment of PMIP3 rainfall simulations across the eastern African monsoon domains during the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum

    Chevalier, Manuel; Brewer, Simon; Chase, Brian M.


    In this paper we compare a compilation of multiproxy records spanning the eastern African margin with general circulation model simulations of seasonal precipitation fields for the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) carried out as part of the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). Results show good agreement during the mid-Holocene (the '6K experiment'), with palaeodata and model outputs correlating well and indicating that changes in insolation drove a stronger northern African monsoon (north of ∼0-5°S) during the terminal "African Humid Period" and a weaker southeast African monsoon. For the LGM (the '21K experiment'), however, significant discrepancies exist both between model simulations, and between existing palaeodata and simulated conditions, both in terms of direction and amplitude of change. None of the PMIP3 simulations reflect the pattern inferred from the palaeodata. Two major discrepancies have been identified to explain this: 1) the limited sensitivity of the southern monsoon domain to the colder temperatures of the Indian Ocean (-2 °C), and 2) the absence of changes in the dynamic of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation over the entire basin, despite the exposure of the Sahul and Sunda shelves that weakened convection over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the LGM. These results indicate that some major features of the atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections between the different monsoon regions require further consideration as models evolve.

  10. Effects of rainfall patterns and land cover on the subsurface flow generation of sloping Ferralsols in southern China.

    Duan, Jian; Yang, Jie; Tang, Chongjun; Chen, Lihua; Liu, Yaojun; Wang, Lingyun


    Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land) in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface flows associated

  11. Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

    Pascale, Salvatore; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh-ul


    Precipitation seasonality of observational datasets and CMIP5 historical simulations are analyzed using novel quantitative measures based on information theory. Two new indicators, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of how peaked the shape of the annual rainfall curve is whereas the DSI quantifies the intensity of the rainfall during the wet season. The global monsoon regions feature the largest values of the DSI. For precipitation regimes featuring one maximum in the monthly rain distribution the RE is related to the duration of the wet season. We show that the RE and the DSI are measures of rainfall seasonality fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercompari...

  12. Rainfall generation

    Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Raj

    This chapter presents an overview of methods for stochastic generation of rainfall at annual to subdaily time scales, at single- to multiple-point locations, and in a changing climatic regime. Stochastic rainfall generators are used to provide inputs for risk assessment of natural or engineering systems that can undergo failure under sustained (high or low) extremes. As a result, generation of rainfall has evolved to provide options that adequately represent such conditions, leading to sequences that exhibit low-frequency variability of a nature similar to the observed rainfall. The chapter consists of three key sections: the first two outlining approaches for rainfall generation using endogenous predictor variables and the third highlighting approaches for generation using exogenous predictors often simulated to represent future climatic conditions. The first section presents approaches for generation of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall, both at single-point locations and multiple sites, with an emphasis on alternatives that ensure appropriate representation of low-frequency variability in the generated rainfall sequences. The second section highlights advancements in the subdaily rainfall generation procedures including commonly used approaches for daily to subdaily rainfall generation. The final section (generation using exogenous predictors) presents a range of alternatives for stochastic downscaling of rainfall for climate change impact assessments of natural and engineering systems. We conclude the chapter by outlining some of the key challenges that remain to be addressed, especially in generation under climate change conditions, with an emphasis on the importance of incorporating uncertainty present in both measurements and models, in the rainfall sequences that are generated.

  13. [Output characteristics of rainfall runoff phosphorus pollution from a typical small watershed in Yimeng mountainous area].

    Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Zhen-wei; Liu, Qian-jin; Jing, Guang-hua


    Relationships between phosphorus pollutant concentrations and precipitation-runoff were analyzed by monitoring pollutant losses at outlets of the Menglianggu watershed in 2010. A typical small watershed was selected to examine the runoff and quality parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), particle phosphorus (PP), dissolve phosphorus (DP) and dissolve inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in rainfall-runoff of 10 rainfall events. Precipitation was above 2 mm for all the 10 rainfall events. The results showed that the peak of phosphorus concentrations occurred before the peak of water flows, whereas change processes of the phosphorus fluxes were consistent with that of the water flows and the phosphorus flux also have a strong linear relationship with the water flows. The minimums of the phosphorus concentrations in every 10 natural rainfall events have small differences with each other, but the maximum and EMCs of the phosphorus concentrations have significant differences with each rainfall event. This was mainly influenced by the precipitation, maximum rainfall intensity and mean rainfall intensity (EMCs) and was less influenced by rainfall duration. DP and TP were mainly composed of DIP and PP, respectively. There were no significant correlations between DIP/DP dynamic changes and rainfall characteristics, whereas significant correlations between PP/TP dynamic changes and maximum rainfall intensity were detected. The production of DIP, DP, AND TP were mainly influenced by the direct runoff (DR) and base flow (BF). The EMCs of DIP, DP, TP and the variations of DIP/DP were all found to have significant polynomial relationships with DR/TR., but the dynamic changes of PP/ TP and the EMCS of PP were less influenced by the DR/TR.

  14. Model-based study of the role of rainfall and land use-land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of Niger red floods in Niamey between 1953 and 2012

    Casse, Claire; Gosset, Marielle; Vischel, Théo; Quantin, Guillaume; Alkali Tanimoun, Bachir


    Since 1950, the Niger River basin has gone through three main climatic periods: a wet period (1950-1960), an extended drought (1970-1980) and since 1990 a recent partial recovery of annual rainfall. Hydrological changes co-occur with these rainfall fluctuations. In most of the basin, the rainfall deficit caused an enhanced discharge deficit, but in the Sahelian region the runoff increased despite the rainfall deficit. Since 2000 the Sahelian part of the Niger has been hit by an increase of flood hazards during the so-called red flood period. In Niamey city, the highest river levels and the longest flooded period ever recorded occurred in 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2013, with heavy casualties and property damage. The reasons for these changes, and the relative role of climate versus land use-land cover (LULC) changes are still debated and are investigated in this paper. The evolution of the Niger red flood in Niamey from 1950 to 2012 is analysed based on long-term records of rainfall (three data sets based on in situ and/or satellite data) and discharge, and a hydrological model. The model is first run with the present LULC conditions in order to analyse solely the effect of rainfall variability. The impact of LULC and drainage area modification is investigated in a second step. The simulations based on the current surface conditions are able to reproduce the observed trend in the red flood occurrence and intensity since the 1980s. This has been verified with three independent rainfall data sets and implies that rainfall variability is the main driver for the red flood intensification observed over the last 30 years. The simulation results since 1953 have revealed that LULC and drainage area changes need to be invoked to explain the changes over a 60-year period.

  15. Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows. Results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees)

    Abancó, Clàudia; Hürlimann, Marcel; Moya, José; Berenguer, Marc


    , and mean intensity, Imean, of the rainfall event, and (ii) using floating durations, D, and intensities, Ifl, based on the maximum values over floating periods of different duration. The resulting thresholds are considerably different (Imean = 6.20 Dtot-0.36 and Ifl_90% = 5.49 D-0.75, respectively) showing a strong dependence on the applied methodology. On the other hand, the definition of the thresholds is affected by several types of uncertainties. Data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that the precipitation recorded by the nearby rain gauges can introduce major uncertainties, especially for convective summer storms. Thus, incorporating radar rainfall can significantly improve the accuracy of the measured triggering rainfall. Finally, thresholds were also derived according to three different criteria for the definition of the duration of the triggering rainfall: (i) the duration until the peak intensity, (ii) the duration until the end of the rainfall; and, (iii) the duration until the trigger of the torrential flow. An important contribution of this work is the assessment of the threshold relationships obtained using the third definition of duration. Moreover, important differences are observed in the obtained thresholds, showing that ID relationships are significantly dependent on the applied methodology.


    LIU Shi-he; TAI Wei; FAN Min; LUO Qiu-shi


    This article studies the atomization rainfall and the generated flow on a slope by numerical simulations.The atomization rainfall is simulated by a unified model for splash droplets and a suspended mist,and the distribution of the diameter of splash rain drops is analyzed.The slope runoff generated by the atomization rainfall is simulated by a depth-averaged 2-D model,and the localization of the rainfall intensity in space is specially considered.The simulation results show that:(1) the median rain size of the atomization rainfall increases in the longitudinal direction at first,then monotonously decreases,and the maximum value is taken at the longitudinal position not in consistent with the position where the maximum rain intensity is taken.In the lateral direction the median rain size monotonously decreases,(2) since the atomization rainfall is distributed in a strongly localized area,it takes a longer time for its runoff yield to reach a steady state than that in the natural rainfall,the variation ranges of the water depth and the velocity in the longitudinal and lateral directions are larger than those in the natural rainfall.

  17. Analysis of rainfall intensities using very dense network measurements and radar information for the Brno area during the period 2003-2009

    Salek, Milan; Stepanek, Petr; Zahradnicek, Pavel [Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno (Czech Republic)


    This study presents a data quality control and spatial analysis of maximum precipitation sums of various durations for the area of the city of Brno, using a dense network of automatic gauge stations and radar information. The measurements of 18 stations in the area of Brno, Czech Republic were established for the purposes of better management of the city sewerage system. Before evaluation of the measurements, quality control was executed on the daily, hourly and 15-minute precipitation sums. All suspicious data were compared with radar measurements and erroneous input data were removed. From this quality controlled data, the maxima of precipitation sums for durations of 5, 10, 15 and 60 minutes were calculated for the given time frames (months, seasons and years) and were spatially analyzed. The role of spatial precipitation estimates using weather radar data for hourly rainfall accumulations has been investigated as well. It is revealed that radar measurements show rather little improvement of the areal precipitation estimates when such a dense gauge network is available in real time, but it would be hard to replace radar measurements by any other source of data for successful quality control of the rain-gauge data, especially in summer months. (orig.)

  18. The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

    Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

    Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

  19. A maximum difference scaling survey of barriers to intensive combination treatment strategies with glucocorticoids in early rheumatoid arthritis

    Meyfroidt, S.; Hulscher, M.; Cock, D. De; Elst, K. van; Joly, J.; Westhovens, R.; Verschueren, P.


    The objectives of the study were to determine the relative importance of barriers related to the provision of intensive combination treatment strategies with glucocorticoids (ICTS-GCs) in early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) from the rheumatologists' perspective and to explore the relation between

  20. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

    Natalie Melissa McLean


    Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

  1. Predation intensity does not cause microevolutionary change in maximum speed or aerobic capacity in trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata Peters).

    Chappell, Mark; Odell, Jason


    We measured maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2max)) and burst speed in populations of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) from contrasting high- and low-predation habitats but reared in "common garden" conditions. We tested two hypothesis: first, that predation, which causes rapid life-history evolution in guppies, also impacts locomotor physiology, and second, that trade-offs would occur between burst and aerobic performance. VO(2max) was higher than predicted from allometry, and resting VO(2) was lower than predicted. There were small interdrainage differences in male VO(2max), but predation did not affect VO(2max) in either sex. Maximum burst speed was correlated with size; absolute burst speed was higher in females, but size-adjusted speed was greater in males. For both sexes, burst speed conformed to allometric predictions. There were differences in burst speed between drainages in females, but predation regime did not affect burst speed in either sex. We did not find a significant correlation between burst speed and VO(2max), suggesting no trade-off between these traits. These results indicate that predation-mediated evolution of guppy life history does not produce concomitant evolution in aerobic capacity and maximum burst speed. However, other aspects of swimming performance (response latencies or acceleration) might show adaptive divergence in contrasting predation regimes.

  2. Properties of Extreme Poin Rainfall II

    Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Harremoës, Poul; Rosbjerg, Dan


    As an alternative to the traditional non-parametric method the partial duration series approach with exponentially distributed exceedances is used to model extreme values of depth and maximum 10 min intensity per rainfall event, measured at gauges placed at different locations in Denmark....... A statistically significant regional variation is documented and shown to be of importance to engineering application. The apparent variability is divided into sampling uncertainty and uncertainty caused by true regional variability. Further, a method for assessing the total inherent design uncertainty, taking...

  3. Experimental study of the water depth and rainfall intensity effects on the bed roughness coefficient used in distributed urban drainage models

    Fraga, Ignacio; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo


    Variability of roughness coefficients with water depth and rainfall is studied.Experimental measurements and numerical calibration are performed.Results show bed friction variations, not well captured by any standard formulation.

  4. The evaluation of rainfall influence on combined sewer overflows characteristics: the Berlin case study.

    Sandoval, S; Torres, A; Pawlowsky-Reusing, E; Riechel, M; Caradot, N


    The present study aims to explore the relationship between rainfall variables and water quality/quantity characteristics of combined sewer overflows (CSOs), by the use of multivariate statistical methods and online measurements at a principal CSO outlet in Berlin (Germany). Canonical correlation results showed that the maximum and average rainfall intensities are the most influential variables to describe CSO water quantity and pollutant loads whereas the duration of the rainfall event and the rain depth seem to be the most influential variables to describe CSO pollutant concentrations. The analysis of partial least squares (PLS) regression models confirms the findings of the canonical correlation and highlights three main influences of rainfall on CSO characteristics: (i) CSO water quantity characteristics are mainly influenced by the maximal rainfall intensities, (ii) CSO pollutant concentrations were found to be mostly associated with duration of the rainfall and (iii) pollutant loads seemed to be principally influenced by dry weather duration before the rainfall event. The prediction quality of PLS models is rather low (R² < 0.6) but results can be useful to explore qualitatively the influence of rainfall on CSO characteristics.

  5. Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overflow performance

    Szeląg Bartosz


    Full Text Available Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overfl ow performance. This research study analyzes the effect of the rainfall characteristics (total and maximum 10-, 15- and 30-minute rainfall depth, its duration, the dry weather period on the performance of the emergency overflow weir located at the inflow to an existing treatment plant. The analyses used the numerical calculation results of the inflow hydrographs performed in the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model program on the basis of six-year-long rainfall measurement sequence. The obtained simulation results for the analysed catchment allowed for the performance of statistical analyses, which demonstrated that the volume of stormwater discharge, the maximum instantaneous flow and the share of stormwater volume discharged through the emergency overflow weir in relation to the total volume of the inflow hydrograph from the catchment are affected by the maximum 30-minute rainfall depth, whereas the discharge duration is affected by the depth of the catchment rainfall layer. Taking into account the results of statistical and hydraulic calculations it can be concluded that in the case of the analysed catchment the performance of the emergency overflow weir is affected to the greatest extent by the rainfall intensity distribution.

  6. How do geomorphic effects of rainfall vary with storm type and spatial scale in a post-fire landscape?

    Kampf, Stephanie K.; Brogan, Daniel J.; Schmeer, Sarah; MacDonald, Lee H.; Nelson, Peter A.


    In post-fire landscapes, increased runoff and soil erosion can cause rapid geomorphic change. We examined how different types of rainfall events in 2013 affected hillslope-scale erosion and watershed-scale channel change in two 14-16 km2 watersheds within the 2012 High Park Fire burn area in northern Colorado, USA. The first set of rainfall events was a sequence of 12 short, spatially variable summer convective rain storms, and the second was a > 200 mm week-long storm in September. We compared rainfall characteristics, hillslope sediment yields, stream stage, and channel geometry changes from the summer storms to those from the September storm. The summer storms had a wide range of rainfall intensities, and each storm produced erosion primarily in one study watershed. The September storm rainfall had less spatial variability, covered both watersheds, and its total rainfall depth was 1.5 to 2.5 times greater than the total summer rainfall. Because rainfall intensities were highest during some summer storms, average hillslope sediment yields were higher for summer storms (6 Mg ha- 1) than for the September storm (3 Mg ha- 1). Maximum storm rainfall intensities were good predictors of hillslope sediment yield, but sediment yield correlated most strongly with total depths of rainfall exceeding 10-30 mm h- 1 intensity thresholds. The combined summer storms produced relatively small changes in mean channel bed elevation and cross section area, with no clear pattern of incision or aggradation. In contrast, the sustained rain across the entire study area during the September storm led to extensive upstream incision and downstream aggradation. Because of different spatial coverage of storms, summer storms produced more total hillslope erosion, whereas the September storm produced the greatest total channel changes. At both scales, high intensity rainfall above a threshold was responsible for inducing most of the geomorphic change.

  7. Maximum Intensity Projection Based on Visual Perception Enhancement%基于视觉感知增强的最大密度投影算法∗

    周志光; 陶煜波; 林海


    This paper proposed a maximum intensity projection method to enhance the depth and shape perception of the internal maximum intensity features, without a sophisticated or time-consuming transfer function specification. On the basis of a traditional maximum intensity projection, the study first searched for the boundary sample with a similar intensity value and the optimal normal in front of the maximum intensity feature. Through by comparing the intensity and gradient norm. Next, the local illumination coefficients were updated according to the depth of boundary structures, the consequential depth-based shading results largely enhanced the depth, and the shape perception of internal feasible structures. A two-threshold region growing scheme was designed to perform and further highlight the features of interest. The seed was selected by users interactively on the rendered image, and the growing process depended on the intensity values and 3D spatial distances of the boundary samples with optimal normal. The comparison results showed that the proposed method provided more depth cues and shape information of the maximum intensity features than traditional methods and had practical applications in medical and engineering fields.%  提出一种基于视觉感知增强的最大密度投影算法,无需调节复杂的传输函数,就可以有效增强体数据内部最大密度特征的深度感知和形状感知。在传统的最大密度投影算法的基础上,利用梯度模属性精确查找特征或相似特征的边界,以确定最佳法向特征;利用最佳法向特征的深度信息自适应地修改局部光照系数,进而对最大密度特征进行光照处理,以获得视觉感知增强的可视化结果;采用基于密度值和三维空间距离的双阈值区域增长策略,动态区分感兴趣区域和背景区域,交互地实现特征突出显示。实验结果表明,该算法在传统算法的基础上

  8. A Case Study of Bivariate Rainfall Frequency Analysis Using Copula in South Korea

    Joo, K.; Shin, J.; Kim, W.; Heo, J.


    For a given rainfall event, it can be characterized into some properties such as rainfall depth (amount), duration, and intensity. By considering these factors simultaneously, the actual phenomenon of rainfall event can be explained better than univariate model. Using bivariate model, rainfall quantiles can be obtained for a given return period without any limitations of specific rainfall duration. For bivariate(depth and duration) frequency analysis, copula model was used in this study. Recently, copula model has been studied widely for hydrological field. And it is more flexible for marginal distribution than other conventional bivariate models. In this study, five weather stations are applied for frequency analysis from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) which are Seoul, Chuncheon, Gangneung, Wonju, and Chungju stations. These sites have 38 ~ 50 years of hourly precipitation data. Inter-event time definition is used for identification of rainfall events. And three copula models (Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank, and Joe) are applied in this study. Maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameter of copula (θ). The normal, generalized extreme value, Gumbel, 3-parameter gamma, and generalized logistic distributions are examined for marginal distribution. As a result, rainfall quantiles can be obtained for any rainfall durations for a given return period by calculating conditional probability. In addition, rainfall quantiles from copula models are compared to those from univariate model.

  9. Performance and nematode infection of ewe lambs on intensive rotational grazing with two different cultivars of Panicum maximum.

    Costa, R L D; Bueno, M S; Veríssimo, C J; Cunha, E A; Santos, L E; Oliveira, S M; Spósito Filha, E; Otsuk, I P


    The daily live weight gain (DLWG), faecal nematode egg counts (FEC), and packed cell volume (PCV) of Suffolk, Ile de France and Santa Inês ewe lambs were evaluated fortnightly for 56 days in the dry season (winter) and 64 days in the rainy season (summer) of 2001-2002. The animals were distributed in two similar groups, one located on Aruana and the other on Tanzania grass (Panicum maximum), in rotational grazing system at the Instituto de Zootecnia, in Nova Odessa city (SP), Brazil. In the dry season, 24 one-year-old ewe lambs were used, eight of each breed, and there was no difference (p > 0.05) between grasses for DLWG (100 g/day), although the Suffolk had higher values (p < 0.05) than the other breeds. In the rainy season, with 33 six-month-old ewe lambs, nine Suffolk, eight Ile de France and 16 Santa Inês, the DLWG was not affected by breed, but it was twice as great (71 g/day, p < 0.05) on Aruana as on Tanzânia grass (30 g/day). The Santa Inês ewe lambs had the lowest FEC (p < 0.05) and the highest PCV (p < 0.05), confirming their higher resistance to Haemonchus contortus, the prevalent nematode in the rainy season. It was concluded that the best performance of ewe lambs on Aruana pastures in the rainy season is probably explained by their lower nematode infection owing to the better protein content of this grass (mean contents 11.2% crude protein in Aruana grass and 8.7% in Tanzania grass, p < 0.05) which may have improved the immunological system with the consequence that the highest PCV (p < 0.05) observed in those animals.

  10. Impacts of rainfall events on runoff water quality in an agricultural environment in temperate areas.

    Delpla, Ianis; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier


    Since a rise in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations has been observed for surface waters at least over the last two decades, a change in weather conditions (temperature and precipitations) has been proposed to partly explain this increase. While the majority of DOC delivery from soils to stream occurs during rainfall events, a better understanding of the rainfall influence on DOC release is needed. This study has been conducted in Brittany, western France, on agricultural experimental plots receiving either cattle manure (CM) or pig slurry (PS) as fertilizers in accordance with local practices. Each plot was instrumented with a flow meter and an auto sampler for runoff measurements. The results show that export of DOC during high intensity events is higher than during lower intensity rainfalls. Fertilization has a noticeable impact on total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes with an increase of five to seven folds for PS and CM respectively. If TOC shock load occurs shortly after the rainfall peak, DOC maximum appears with the first flush of the event. Organic carbon (OC) is mainly under colloidal (41.2%) and soluble (23.9%) forms during the first stage of a rainfall event and a control of rainfall intensity on OC colloidal transport is suggested. These findings highlight the potential risk of receiving water quality degradation due to the increase of heavier rainfall events with climate change in temperate areas.

  11. Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Jefferson Schick


    Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

  12. Rain rate intensity model for communication link design across the Indian region

    Kilaru, Aravind; Kotamraju, Sarat K.; Avlonitis, Nicholas; Sri Kavya, K. Ch.


    A study on rain statistical parameters such as one minute rain intensity, possible number of minute occurrences with respective percentage of time in a year has been evaluated for the purpose of communication link design at Ka, Q, V bands as well as at Free-Space Optical communication links (FSO). To understand possible outage period of a communication links due to rainfall and to investigate rainfall pattern, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) rainfall data is analysed due its ample presence across India. The climates of the examined AWS regions vary from desert to cold climate, heavy rainfall to variable rainfall regions, cyclone effective regions, mountain and coastal regions. In this way a complete and unbiased picture of the rainfall statistics for Indian region is evaluated. The analysed AWS data gives insight into yearly accumulated rainfall, maximum hourly accumulated rainfall, mean hourly accumulated rainfall, number of rainy days and number of rainy hours from 668 AWS locations. Using probability density function the one minute rainfall measurements at KL University is integrated with AWS measurements for estimating number of rain occurrences in terms of one minute rain intensity for annual rainfall accumulated between 100 mm and 5000 mm to give an insight into possible one minute accumulation pattern in an hour for comprehensive analysis of rainfall influence on a communication link for design engineers. So that low availability communications links at higher frequencies can be transformed into a reliable and economically feasible communication links for implementing High Throughput Services (HTS).

  13. Erosivity under two durations of maximum rain intensities in Pelotas/RS = Erosividade sob duas durações de intensidades máximas da chuva em Pelotas - RS

    Jacira Porto dos Santos


    Full Text Available In the Universal Equation of Soil Loss (USLE, erosivity is the factor related to rain and express its potential to cause soil erosion, being necessary to know its kinetic energy and the maximum intensities of rain in duration of 30 min. Thus, the aim of this study was to verify and quantify the impact of the rain duration, considering 15 and 30 min, on the USLE erosivity factor. To achieve this, 863 rain gauge records were used, duiring the period of 1983 to 1998 in the city of Pelotas, RS, obtained from the Agrometeorological Station - Covenant EMBRAPA/UFPel, INMET (31o51´S; 52o21´O and altitude of 13,2 m. With the records, it was estimated the erosivity values from the maximum intensities of rain during the period evaluated. The average annual values of erosivity was 2551,3 MJ ha-1 h-1 ano-1 and 1406,1 MJ ha-1 h-1 ano-1, for the average intensities of 6,40 mm h-1 and 3,74 mm h-1, in durations of 15 and 30 min, respectively. The results of this study have shown that the percentage of erosive rainfalls in relation to the total precipitation was of 91.0%, and that the erosivity was influenced by the duration of the maximum intensity of rain.= Na Equação Universal de Perdas de Solo (EUPS a erosividade é o fator relacionado à chuva e expressa o seu potencial em provocar a erosão do solo, sendo necessário que se conheça a energia cinética da mesma e as máximas intensidades da chuva na duração de 30 min. Objetivou-se com este trabalho verificar e quantificar o impacto da duração da chuva, considerando 15 e 30 min, sobre o fator erosividade da EUPS. Para tanto foram utilizados 863 registros pluviográficos de chuva, no período de 1983 a 1998 da localidade de Pelotas, RS, obtidos na Estação Agroclimatológica – Convênio EMBRAPA/UFPel, INMET (31o51´S;52o21´O e altitude de 13,2 m. Com os registros foram estimados os valores de erosividade a partir de intensidades máximas de chuva nas durações consideradas. Os valores m

  14. A comparison of two formulas of topical menthol on vascular responses and perceived intensity prior to and follow a bout of maximum voluntary muscular contractions (MVMCs).

    Topp, Robert; Ng, Alex; Cybulski, Alyson; Skelton, Katalin; Papanek, Paula


    The purpose of this study was to compare the vascular responses in the brachial artery and perceived intensity of two different formulas of topical menthol gels prior to and following a bout of maximum voluntary muscular contractions (MVMCs). 18 adults completed the same protocol on different days using blinded topical menthol gels (Old Formula and New Formula). Heart rate, brachial artery blood flow (ml/min), vessel diameter and reported intensity of sensation were measured at baseline (T1), at 5 min after application of the gel to the upper arm (T2), and immediately following five MVMCs hand grips (T3). The New Formula exhibited a significant decline in blood flow (-22.6%) between T1 and T2 which was not different than the nonsignificant declines under the Old Formula 1 (-21.8%). Both formulas resulted in a significant increase in perceived intensity of sensation between T1 and T2. Blood flow increased significantly with the New Formula (488%) between T2 and T3 and nonsignificantly with the Old Formula (355%).

  15. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de


    Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge data.

  16. Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

    Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J


    Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

  17. An expeditious risk analysis of intense rainfall events in low mountain ranges of Central German Uplands under the aspect of a sustainable and decentralised flood retention

    Bertermann, D.; Bialas, C.; Zacherl, A.


    Due to increasing settlement pressure, intensifying pressure as a result of the utilisation of flood-threatened surfaces and also in consequence of the climate change with its effects even on local scales an accumulation of flood events is to be expected. Areas that have not been influenced by flood events in the past, like low mountain ranges, can certainly be affected in the near future. Against this background applicable solution and adjustment strategies are required in practice to mitigate such events or to even prevent them. The key aim of the research activities is the development of a standardised and expeditious risk analysis of intense rainfall events in low mountain ranges of Central German Uplands under the aspect of sustainable and decentralised flood retention and protection. Hydrologic characteristics, expressed by the 'run-off-coefficient' and the 'surface roughness', for clearly defined biotope types of German low mountain ranges should be derived with the help of already existing standardised soil/utilisation/vegetation units. According to the current state-of-the-art of flood models land use changes do not have great impact on the slow-flowing, large flood events in widespread watersheds. On the contrary, small, swift-flowing floods in small watersheds can be influenced by land use or management changes. Thus, the focus of the research work is aimed on these small quick flood events. However, also differentiated information for the solution of flood problems in large watersheds can be reached by the summation of statements about small watersheds. The development of a standardised planning method (incl. the GI-System implementation) for the optimization of the drain regulation serves for the reduction of the flood danger. Land use and vegetation is so optimised in adaptation to soil and land management and by taking into account prevailing drain roads that an essential contribution to the regulation of the surface run-off can be performed. The

  18. Empirical rainfall thresholds and copula based IDF curves for shallow landslides and flash floods

    Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca; Brilly, Mitja; Mikoš, Matjaž


    rainfall data with 5-minute time step where the data series ranged from 11 to 66 years. Gumbel and Gamma distributions were selected to model annual maximums of rainfall intensities and durations, respectively. Method of L-moments was used to estimate the marginal distributions parameters and method of moments was chosen to estimate the Frank copula parameter. Comparison between ID curves and IDF curves constructed using copula approach was also made.

  19. Dual-energy CT angiography in peripheral arterial occlusive disease - accuracy of maximum intensity projections in clinical routine and subgroup analysis

    Kau, Thomas [Klinikum Klagenfurt, General Hospital of Klagenfurt, Institute of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Klagenfurt (Austria); Klinikum Klagenfurt am Worthersee, Radiologie, Klagenfurt (Austria); Eicher, Wolfgang; Reiterer, Christian; Niedermayer, Martin; Rabitsch, Egon; Hausegger, Klaus A. [Klinikum Klagenfurt, General Hospital of Klagenfurt, Institute of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Klagenfurt (Austria); Senft, Birgit [Section of Statistics, Reha Clinic for Mental Health, Klagenfurt (Austria)


    To evaluate the accuracy of dual-energy CT angiography (DE-CTA) maximum intensity projections (MIPs) in symptomatic peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD). In 58 patients, DE-CTA of the lower extremities was performed on dual-source CT. In a maximum of 35 arterial segments, severity of the most stenotic lesion was graded (<10%, 10-49% and 50-99% luminal narrowing or occlusion) independently by two radiologists, with DSA serving as the reference standard. In DSA, 52.3% of segments were significantly stenosed or occluded. Agreement of DE-CTA MIPs with DSA was good in the aorto-iliac and femoro-popliteal regions ({kappa} = 0.72; {kappa} = 0.66), moderate in the crural region ({kappa} = 0.55), slight in pedal arteries ({kappa} = 0.10) and very good in bypass segments ({kappa} = 0.81). Accuracy was 88%, 78%, 74%, 55% and 82% for the respective territories and moderate (75%) overall, with good sensitivity (84%) and moderate specificity (67%). Sensitivity and specificity was 82% and 76% in claudicants and 84% and 61% in patients with critical limb ischaemia. While correlating well with DSA above the knee, accuracy of DE-CTA MIPs appeared to be moderate in the calf and largely insufficient in calcified pedal arteries, especially in patients with critical limb ischaemia. (orig.)

  20. Diagnostic performance of three-dimensional MR maximum intensity projection for the assessment of synovitis of the hand and wrist in rheumatoid arthritis: A pilot study

    Li, Xubin, E-mail: [Department of Radiology, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Reseaech Center for Cancer, Tianjin, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin 300060 (China); Liu, Xia; Du, Xiangke [Department of Radiology, Peking University People' s Hospital, Beijing 100044 (China); Ye, Zhaoxiang [Department of Radiology, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Reseaech Center for Cancer, Tianjin, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin 300060 (China)


    Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of three-dimensional (3D) MR maximum intensity projection (MIP) in the assessment of synovitis of the hand and wrist in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to 3D contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI). Materials and methods: Twenty-five patients with RA underwent MR examinations. 3D MR MIP images were derived from the enhanced images. MR images were reviewed by two radiologists for the presence and location of synovitis of the hand and wrist. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 3D MIP were, respectively, calculated with the reference standard 3D CE-MRI. Results: In all subjects, 3D MIP images yielded directly and clearly the presence and location of synovitis with just one image. Synovitis demonstrated high signal intensity on MIP images. The k-values for the detection of articular synovitis indicated excellent interobserver agreements using 3D MIP images (k = 0.87) and CE-MR images (k = 0.91), respectively. 3D MIP demonstrated a sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 91.07%, 98.57% and 96.0%, respectively, for the detection of synonitis. Conclusion: 3D MIP can provide a whole overview of lesion locations and a reliable diagnostic performance in the assessment of articular synovitis of the hand and wrist in patients with RA, which has potential value of clinical practice.

  1. Producción de semilla de guinea (Panicum maximum Jacq. en un sistema intensivo de ceba de ganado vacuno Seed production of Guinea grass (Panicum maximum Jacq. in an intensive cattle fattening system

    G Oquend


    Full Text Available En un suelo Pardo sialítico del subtipo Cambisol cálcico, localizado en la Empresa Pecuaria «Calixto García», en la provincia de Holguín, se estudio la producción de semilla de guinea (Panicum maximum Jacq. en un sistema intensivo de ceba de ganado vacuno, en condiciones de riego. Los tratamientos fueron cinco varieda­des del pasto guinea: A Común; B Likoni; C Mombasa; D Tanzania; y E Tobiatá. Los siguientes métodos se consideraron a su vez como subtratamientos: 1 Siembra con semilla gámica; 2 Plantación por macollas; y 3 Por vía de trasplante. La carga se mantuvo ajustada a 2 UGM/ha. En la producción de semillas existieron interacciones favorables entre los métodos de siembra y las variedades: semilla gámica-guinea Likoni; maco­lla-guinea Mombasa, Tanzania y Tobiatá; trasplante-guinea Común. En todo el sistema de explotación se obtuvo un aporte adicional superior a los $1 000/ha por concepto de producción de semilla, sin afectar la producción animal, en la que se obtuvieron ganancias superiores a los 800 g/animal/día y producciones pro­medio de 46 212 t de carne en pie por ciclo de ceba. Se considera factible la producción de semilla del pasto guinea en sistemas intensivos de ceba de ganado vacuno.On a sialitic Brown soil of the calcic Cambisol subtype, located at the «Calixto García» Livestock Production Enterprise, in the Holguín province, the production of Guinea grass (Panicum maximum Jacq. was studied in an intensive cattle fattening system, with irrigation. The treatments were five varieties of Guinea grass: A Common; B Likoni; C Mombasa; D Tanzania; and E Tobiatá. The following methods were considered, in turn, sub-treatments: 1 Seeding with gamic seed; 2 Planting with tillers; and 3 Transplanting. The stocking rate remained adjusted at 2 animals/ha. In seed production there were favorable interactions between the planting methods and the varieties: gamic seed-Guinea grass Likoni; tiller-Guinea grass

  2. Rainfall partitioning by desert shrubs in arid regions


    We measured the rainfall partitioning among throughfall, stemflow, and interception by desert shrubs in an arid region of China, and analyzed the influence of rainfall and canopy characteristics on this partitioning and its ecohydrological effects. The percent-ages of total rainfall accounted for by throughfall, stemflow, and interception ranged from 78.85±2.78 percent to 86.29±5.07 per-cent, from 5.50±3.73 percent to 8.47±4.19 percent, and from 7.54±2.36 percent to 15.95±4.70 percent, respectively, for the four shrubs in our study (Haloxylon ammodendron, Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix ramosissima, and Nitraria sphaerocarpa). Rain-fall was significantly linearly correlated with throughfall, stemflow, and interception (P < 0.0001). The throughfall, stemflow, and interception percentages were logarithmically related to total rainfall (P < 0.01), but were quadratically related to the maximum 1-hour rainfall intensity (P < 0.01). The throughfall and stemflow percentages increased significantly with increasing values of the rainfall characteristics, whereas the interception percentage generally decreased (except for average wind speed, air temperature, and canopy evaporation). Regression analysis suggested that the stemflow percentage increased significantly with increasing crown length, number of branches, and branch angle (R2 = 0.92, P < 0.001). The interception percentage increased significantly with increasing LAI (leaf area index) and crown length, but decreased with increasing branch angle (R2 = 0.96, P < 0.001). The mean funnelling percentages for the four shrubs ranged from 30.27±4.86 percent to 164.37±6.41 percent of the bulk precipitation. Much of the precipitation was funnelled toward the basal area of the stem, confirming that shrub stemflow conserved in deep soil layers may be an available moisture source to support plant survival and growth under arid conditions.

  3. Initialization with diabatic heating from satellite-derived rainfall

    Ma, Leiming; Chan, Johnny; Davidson, Noel E.; Turk, Joe


    In this paper, a new technique is proposed to improve initialization of a tropical cyclone (TC) prediction model using diabatic heating profiles estimated from a combination of both infrared satellite cloud imagery and satellite-derived rainfall. The method is termed Rainfall-defined Diabatic Heating, RDH. To examine the RDH performance, initialization and forecast experiments are made with the Australia Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) Tropical Cyclone — Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS) for the case of TC Chris, which made landfall on the west coast of Australia during 3-6 Feb 2002. RDH is performed in three steps: 1) based on previous observational and numerical studies, reference diabatic heating profiles are firstly classified into three kinds: convective, stratiform or composite types; 2) NRL (Naval Research Laboratory) 3-hourly gridded satellite rainfall estimates are categorized as one of the three types according to the rain rate; 3) within a nudging phase of 24 h, the model-generated heating at each grid point during the integration is replaced by the reference heating profiles on the basis of the satellite-observed cloud top temperature and rainfall type. The results of sensitivity experiments show that RDH has a positive impact on the model initialization of TC Chris. The heating profiles generated by the model within the observed rainfall area show agreement with that of reference heating. That is, maximum heating is located in the lower troposphere for convective rainfall, and in the upper troposphere for stratiform rainfall. In response to the replaced heating and its impact on the TC structure, the model initial condition and forecasts of the track and intensity are improved.

  4. Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan

    Chen, J. C.; C. D. Jan; Huang, W. S.


    This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm) were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N) was also investigated via image analy...

  5. On the sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic modelling to rainfall spatial and temporal resolution

    G. Bruni


    Full Text Available Cities are increasingly vulnerable to floods generated by intense rainfall, because of their high degree of imperviousness, implementation of infrastructures, and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change. Accurate information of convective storm characteristics at high spatial and temporal resolution is a crucial input for urban hydrological models to be able to simulate fast runoff processes and enhance flood prediction. In this paper, a detailed study of the sensitivity of urban hydrological response to high resolution radar rainfall was conducted. Rainfall rates derived from X-band dual polarimetric weather radar for four rainstorms were used as input into a detailed hydrodynamic sewer model for an urban catchment in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Dimensionless parameters were derived to compare results between different storm conditions and to describe the effect of rainfall spatial resolution in relation to storm and hydrodynamic model properties: rainfall sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. storm size, catchment sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. catchment size, runoff and sewer sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. runoff and sewer model resolution respectively. Results show catchment smearing effect for rainfall resolution approaching half the catchment size, i.e. for catchments sampling numbers greater than 0.5 averaged rainfall volumes decrease about 20%. Moreover, deviations in maximum water depths, form 10 to 30% depending on the storm, occur for rainfall resolution close to storm size, describing storm smearing effect due to rainfall coarsening. Model results also show the sensitivity of modelled runoff peaks and maximum water depths to the resolution of the runoff areas and sewer density respectively. Sensitivity to temporal resolution of rainfall input seems low compared to spatial resolution, for the storms analysed in this study. Findings are in agreement with previous studies on natural catchments

  6. A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes

    M. H. Spekkers


    Full Text Available In this paper, a database of water-related insurance damage claims related to private properties and content was analysed. The aim was to investigate whether high numbers of damage claims were associated with high rainfall intensities. Rainfall data were used for the period of 2003–2010 in the Netherlands based on a network of 33 automatic rain gauges operated by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Insurance damage data were aggregated to areas within 10-km range of the rain gauges. Through a logistic regression model, high claim numbers were linked to maximum rainfall intensities, with rainfall intensity based on 10-min to 4-h time windows. Rainfall intensity proved to be a significant damage predictor; however, the explained variance, approximated by a pseudo-R2 statistic, was at most 34% for property damage and at most 30% for content damage. When directly comparing predicted and observed values, the model was able to predict 5–17% more cases correctly compared to a random prediction. No important differences were found between relations with property and content damage data. A considerable fraction of the variance is left unexplained, which emphasizes the need to study damage generating mechanisms and additional explanatory variables.

  7. Relações entre precipitações intensas de diferentes durações para desagregação da chuva diária em Santa Catarina Relationships between intense rainfall of different durations for disaggregation of daily rainfall in Santa Catarina

    Álvaro J. Back


    Full Text Available Com este trabalho objetivou-se determinar as relações entre precipitações de diferentes durações para o Estado de Santa Catarina. Foram estabelecidas as séries de máximas anuais de chuva com duração de 5 a 1440 min de treze estações pluviográficas de Santa Catarina. Para cada duração foram estimadas as precipitações máximas com período de retorno de 2 a 100 anos, com base na distribuição de Gumbel-Chow. A relação média entre a chuva de 24 h e a chuva de um dia independe do período de retorno, com média para o estado de 1,17. Ao se analisar o horário da leitura da precipitação diária verificou-se que esta relação varia de 1,12 a 1,20. Em referência à chuva de 1 h em relação à chuva de 24 h observam-se valores significativamente inferiores aos normalmente usados.The aim of this study was to determine the relationships between rainfalls of different durations for the State of Santa Catarina. The series of annual maximum rainfall were defined with a duration of 5 to 1440 min of thirteen precipitation stations in Santa Catarina. For each duration maximum rainfall were estimated with a return period of 2 to 100 years, based on the Gumbel-Chow distribution. The relationship between the average rainfall of 24 h and one day rain does not depend on the return period, with an average of 1.17 for the State. When analyzing the time reading the daily precipitation it was messed that this ratio varies from 1.12 to 1.20. In relation to 1 h of rain over 24 h of rain it was observed values significantly lower than those normally used.

  8. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    Witter, J.V.


    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  9. Remote sensing of rainfall for debris-flow hazard assessment

    Wieczorek, G.F.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; ,


    Recent advances in remote sensing of rainfall provide more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Four case studies of abundant debris flows over relatively small areas triggered during intense rainstorms are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. Three examples with rainfall estimates from National Weather Service Doppler radar and one example with rainfall estimates from infrared imagery from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite are compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and with landslide distribution. The advantages and limitations of using remote sensing of rainfall for landslide hazard analysis are discussed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

  10. Preliminary Study of Short- duration Rainfall Intensity in the Central Region of Taiwan%台湾中部地区短延时降雨强度初步探讨

    赵怡婷; 李锦育


    台湾地区在经历1999年的“9.21”地震后,山坡地土体松动严重,仅仅短延时的降雨即有机会引起土石流的发生,而近年微小的降雨条件下即有可能触动土石流发生,因此将台湾中部地区14个测站所测得的台风降雨资料,依照台风降雨强度进行水文频率分析,分析方法采用对数常态分布法、极端值第一类分布法、皮尔逊第三类分布法及对数皮尔逊第三类分布法等4种方法,计算短延时重现期距并绘成降雨强度一延时一频率分析曲线,再整合各区域土石流潜势溪流的分布情况,分析台风降雨对台湾中部地区所造成的影响。%After the 921 Earthquake in 1999, Taiwan had suffered from serious loosening soil o,f hill side, even a short time delay of rainfall may cause debris flow. In addition, in recent years, ting rainfall conditions could also trigger the debris flow. Therefore, the data of typhoon and rainfall measured by 14 stations in the central region of Taiwan were analyzed by hydrological frequency analysis ( depending on the base of the intensity of typhoon and rainfall). The anal- ysis includes the methods of Log - normal distribution, Extreme - value type I distribution, Pearson type III and Log - Pearson type III distribution. Finally, it is calculated the short delay return period and diagrammed the rainfall intensi- ty - duration - frequency (IDF) curve, and then integrated the regional distribution of potential debris flow torrent to estimate the influence brought by typhoon and rainfall on the central part of Taiwan.

  11. Responses of soil water percolation to dynamic interactions among rainfall, antecedent moisture and season in a forest site

    Lai, Xiaoming; Liao, Kaihua; Feng, Huihui; Zhu, Qing


    Knowledge of soil water percolation below the rooting zone and its responses to the dynamic interactions of different factors are important for the control of non-point source pollution. Based on 3600 scenarios in Hydrus-1D simulation, this study revealed the integrated effects of rainfall characteristics (rainfall amount, maximum rainfall intensity or MRI, time distribution characteristics of rainfall or TDC), antecedent moisture and the season on deep percolation (DP) at a forest site in Taihu Lake Basin, China. Results showed that Hydrus-1D model can well simulate the soil water dynamics at this site. Antecedent moisture had the greatest relative contribution to DP (85.7%), followed by rainfall amount (10.9%) and MRI (3.4%). As the antecedent moisture increased, the relative contribution of the season on DP increased from 0.0% to 16.4%. In comparison, that of MRI decreased from 58.7% to 38.5% and that of rainfall amount followed a bell shape pattern (greatest when the antecedent moisture was 0.26 m3 m-3). The relative contribution of antecedent moisture to DP in summer was the greatest (87.8%), while that of the rainfall was the least. The TDC influenced DP by affecting the responses of DP to other factors. When the rainfall amount was ⩾80 mm and the antecedent moisture content was ⩾0.34 m3 m-3, effect of TDC on DP could be observed. The DP of TDC_B (rainfall intensity linearly increased with time) was the lowest, while that of TDC_E (rainfall intensity kept constant with time) was the greatest. Findings of this study have practical significance for investigating the water and pollutant transport in vadose zone.

  12. Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

    Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.


    Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

  13. Reply to Comment on ‘Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones’

    Moon, Il-Ju; Kim, Sung-Hun; Klotzbach, Phil; Chan, Johnny C. L.


    Recently a pronounced global poleward shift in the latitude at which the maximum intensities of tropical cyclones (TC) occur has been identified. Moon et al (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 104004) reported that the poleward migration is significantly influenced by changes in interbasin frequency. These frequency changes are a larger contributor to the poleward shift than the intrabasin migration component. The strong role of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward migration also suggest that the poleward trend could be changed to an opposite equatorward trend in the future due to multi-decadal variability that significantly impacts Northern Hemisphere TC frequency. In the accompanying comment, Kossin et al (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 068001) questioned the novelty and robustness of our results by raising issues associated with subsampling, contributions from some basins to poleward migration, and data dependency. Here, we explain the originality and importance of our main findings, which are different from those of Kossin et al (2014 Nature 509 349-52) and reaffirm that our conclusions are maintained regardless of the issues that were raised.

  14. Audio-Visual Biofeedback Does Not Improve the Reliability of Target Delineation Using Maximum Intensity Projection in 4-Dimensional Computed Tomography Radiation Therapy Planning

    Lu, Wei, E-mail: [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Neuner, Geoffrey A.; George, Rohini; Wang, Zhendong; Sasor, Sarah [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Huang, Xuan [Research and Development, Care Management Department, Johns Hopkins HealthCare LLC, Glen Burnie, Maryland (United States); Regine, William F.; Feigenberg, Steven J.; D' Souza, Warren D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States)


    Purpose: To investigate whether coaching patients' breathing would improve the match between ITV{sub MIP} (internal target volume generated by contouring in the maximum intensity projection scan) and ITV{sub 10} (generated by combining the gross tumor volumes contoured in 10 phases of a 4-dimensional CT [4DCT] scan). Methods and Materials: Eight patients with a thoracic tumor and 5 patients with an abdominal tumor were included in an institutional review board-approved prospective study. Patients underwent 3 4DCT scans with: (1) free breathing (FB); (2) coaching using audio-visual (AV) biofeedback via the Real-Time Position Management system; and (3) coaching via a spirometer system (Active Breathing Coordinator or ABC). One physician contoured all scans to generate the ITV{sub 10} and ITV{sub MIP}. The match between ITV{sub MIP} and ITV{sub 10} was quantitatively assessed with volume ratio, centroid distance, root mean squared distance, and overlap/Dice coefficient. We investigated whether coaching (AV or ABC) or uniform expansions (1, 2, 3, or 5 mm) of ITV{sub MIP} improved the match. Results: Although both AV and ABC coaching techniques improved frequency reproducibility and ABC improved displacement regularity, neither improved the match between ITV{sub MIP} and ITV{sub 10} over FB. On average, ITV{sub MIP} underestimated ITV{sub 10} by 19%, 19%, and 21%, with centroid distance of 1.9, 2.3, and 1.7 mm and Dice coefficient of 0.87, 0.86, and 0.88 for FB, AV, and ABC, respectively. Separate analyses indicated a better match for lung cancers or tumors not adjacent to high-intensity tissues. Uniform expansions of ITV{sub MIP} did not correct for the mismatch between ITV{sub MIP} and ITV{sub 10}. Conclusions: In this pilot study, audio-visual biofeedback did not improve the match between ITV{sub MIP} and ITV{sub 10}. In general, ITV{sub MIP} should be limited to lung cancers, and modification of ITV{sub MIP} in each phase of the 4DCT data set is recommended.

  15. Three-dimensional display of peripheral nerves in the wrist region based on MR diffusion tensor imaging and maximum intensity projection post-processing

    Ding, Wen Quan, E-mail: [Department of Hand Surgery, Hand Surgery Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, Jiangsu (China); Zhou, Xue Jun, E-mail: [Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, Jiangsu (China); Tang, Jin Bo, E-mail: [Department of Hand Surgery, Hand Surgery Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, Jiangsu (China); Gu, Jian Hui, E-mail: [Department of Hand Surgery, Hand Surgery Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, Jiangsu (China); Jin, Dong Sheng, E-mail: [Department of Radiology, Jiangsu Province Official Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)


    Highlights: • 3D displays of peripheral nerves can be achieved by 2 MIP post-processing methods. • The median nerves’ FA and ADC values can be accurately measured by using DTI6 data. • Adopting 6-direction DTI scan and MIP can evaluate peripheral nerves efficiently. - Abstract: Objectives: To achieve 3-dimensional (3D) display of peripheral nerves in the wrist region by using maximum intensity projection (MIP) post-processing methods to reconstruct raw images acquired by a diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) scan, and to explore its clinical applications. Methods: We performed DTI scans in 6 (DTI6) and 25 (DTI25) diffusion directions on 20 wrists of 10 healthy young volunteers, 6 wrists of 5 patients with carpal tunnel syndrome, 6 wrists of 6 patients with nerve lacerations, and one patient with neurofibroma. The MIP post-processing methods employed 2 types of DTI raw images: (1) single-direction and (2) T{sub 2}-weighted trace. The fractional anisotropy (FA) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of the median and ulnar nerves were measured at multiple testing sites. Two radiologists used custom evaluation scales to assess the 3D nerve imaging quality independently. Results: In both DTI6 and DTI25, nerves in the wrist region could be displayed clearly by the 2 MIP post-processing methods. The FA and ADC values were not significantly different between DTI6 and DTI25, except for the FA values of the ulnar nerves at the level of pisiform bone (p = 0.03). As to the imaging quality of each MIP post-processing method, there were no significant differences between DTI6 and DTI25 (p > 0.05). The imaging quality of single-direction MIP post-processing was better than that from T{sub 2}-weighted traces (p < 0.05) because of the higher nerve signal intensity. Conclusions: Three-dimensional displays of peripheral nerves in the wrist region can be achieved by MIP post-processing for single-direction images and T{sub 2}-weighted trace images for both DTI6 and DTI25

  16. Use of combined maximum and minimum intensity projections to determine internal target volume in 4-dimensional CT scans for hepatic malignancies

    Liu Jin


    Full Text Available Abstract Background To evaluate the accuracy of the combined maximum and minimum intensity projection-based internal target volume (ITV delineation in 4-dimensional (4D CT scans for liver malignancies. Methods 4D CT with synchronized IV contrast data were acquired from 15 liver cancer patients (4 hepatocellular carcinomas; 11 hepatic metastases. We used five approaches to determine ITVs: (1. ITVAllPhases: contouring gross tumor volume (GTV on each of 10 respiratory phases of 4D CT data set and combining these GTVs; (2. ITV2Phase: contouring GTV on CT of the peak inhale phase (0% phase and the peak exhale phase (50% and then combining the two; (3. ITVMIP: contouring GTV on MIP with modifications based on physician's visual verification of contours in each respiratory phase; (4. ITVMinIP: contouring GTV on MinIP with modification by physician; (5. ITV2M: combining ITVMIP and ITVMinIP. ITVAllPhases was taken as the reference ITV, and the metrics used for comparison were: matching index (MI, under- and over-estimated volume (Vunder and Vover. Results 4D CT images were successfully acquired from 15 patients and tumor margins were clearly discernable in all patients. There were 9 cases of low density and 6, mixed on CT images. After comparisons of metrics, the tool of ITV2M was the most appropriate to contour ITV for liver malignancies with the highest MI of 0.93 ± 0.04 and the lowest proportion of Vunder (0.07 ± 0.04. Moreover, tumor volume, target motion three-dimensionally and ratio of tumor vertical diameter over tumor motion magnitude in cranio-caudal direction did not significantly influence the values of MI and proportion of Vunder. Conclusion The tool of ITV2M is recommended as a reliable method for generating ITVs from 4D CT data sets in liver cancer.

  17. Interactive GPU-based maximum intensity projection of large medical data sets using visibility culling based on the initial occluder and the visible block classification.

    Kye, Heewon; Sohn, Bong-Soo; Lee, Jeongjin


    Maximum intensity projection (MIP) is an important visualization method that has been widely used for the diagnosis of enhanced vessels or bones by rotating or zooming MIP images. With the rapid spread of multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT) scanners, MDCT scans of a patient generate a large data set. However, previous acceleration methods for MIP rendering of such a data set failed to generate MIP images at interactive rates. In this paper, we propose novel culling methods in both object and image space for interactive MIP rendering of large medical data sets. In object space, for the visibility test of a block, we propose the initial occluder resulting from a preceding image to utilize temporal coherence and increase the block culling ratio a lot. In addition, we propose the hole filling method using the mesh generation and rendering to improve the culling performance during the generation of the initial occluder. In image space, we find out that there is a trade-off between the block culling ratio in object space and the culling efficiency in image space. In this paper, we classify the visible blocks into two types by their visibility. And we propose a balanced culling method by applying a different culling algorithm in image space for each type to utilize the trade-off and improve the rendering speed. Experimental results on twenty CT data sets showed that our method achieved 3.85 times speed up in average without any loss of image quality comparing with conventional bricking method. Using our visibility culling method, we achieved interactive GPU-based MIP rendering of large medical data sets.

  18. Maximum intensity projection with magnetic resonance imaging for evaluating synovitis of the hand in rheumatoid arthritis: comparison with clinical and ultrasound findings.

    Taniguchi, Daigo; Tokunaga, Daisaku; Oda, Ryo; Fujiwara, Hiroyoshi; Ikeda, Takumi; Ikoma, Kazuya; Kishida, Aiko; Yamasaki, Tetsuro; Kawahito, Yutaka; Seno, Takahiro; Ito, Hirotoshi; Kubo, Toshikazu


    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with maximum intensity projection (MIP) is used to evaluate the hand in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). MIP yields clear visualization of synovitis over the entirety of the bilateral hands with a single image. In this study, we assessed synovitis with MIP images, clinical findings, and power Doppler (PD) findings to examine the clinical usefulness of MIP images for RA in the hand. Thirty RA patients were assessed for swelling and tenderness in the joints included in the DAS28, and both contrast-enhanced MRI for bilateral hands and ultrasonography for bilateral wrist and metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints were performed. Articular synovitis was scored in MIP images, and the scores were compared with those for PD. The agreement on synovitis between MIP and conventional MR images was excellent. Palpation showed low sensitivity and high specificity compared with both MIP and PD images. There were joints that were positive in MIP images only, but there were no joints that were positive in PD images only. A statistically significant correlation between the scores of MIP and PD images was found. Furthermore, the agreement between grade 2 on MIP images and positive on PD images was 0.87 (κ = 0.73) for the wrist and 0.92 (κ = 0.57) for MCP joints. Using MIP images together with palpation makes detailed evaluation of synovitis of the hand in RA easy. MIP images may predict further joint damage, since they allow semiquantitative estimation of the degree of thickening of the synovial membrane.

  19. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...


    As noted by the Bureau of Meteorology, Canada, to examine whether such ... their local climate, a threshold considered extreme in one part of Australia could be ... (extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events.

  20. Preliminary study on mechanics-based rainfall kinetic energy

    Yuan Jiuqin Ms.


    Full Text Available A raindrop impact power observation system was employed to observe the real-time raindrop impact power during a rainfall event and to analyze the corresponding rainfall characteristics. The experiments were conducted at different simulated rainfall intensities. As rainfall intensity increased, the observed impact power increased linearly indicating the power observation system would be satisfactory for characterizing rainfall erosivity. Momentum is the product of mass and velocity (Momentum=MV, which is related to the observed impact power value. Since there is no significant difference between momentum and impact power, observed impact power can represent momentum for different rainfall intensities. The relationship between momentum and the observed impact power provides a convenient way to calculate rainfall kinetic energy. The value of rainfall kinetic energy based on the observed impact power was higher than the classic rainfall kinetic energy. The rainfall impact power based kinetic energy and the classic rainfall kinetic energy showed linear correlation, which indicates that the raindrop impact power observation system can characterize rainfall kinetic energy. The article establishes a preliminary way to calculate rainfall kinetic energy by using the real-time observed momentum, providing a foundation for replacing the traditional methods for estimating kinetic energy of rainstorms.

  1. Updating Rainfall Erosivity Map of the Mediterranean Region in Turkey by RUSLE-R and GIS

    Topcu, P.; Deviren Saygin, S.; Erpul, G.; Bayramin, I.


    To understand and analyze rainfall variability is a need for evaluating the erosive potential of rainfall in terms of space and time. In this study of revising rainfall erosivity index by RUSLE-R equation and recent data set, we focus in particular on the semi-arid areas of the Mediterranean Region, Turkey, where soil erosion is one of the major threats to soil and water resources and where soil erosion is as acute as or more severe than those in other Mediterranean countries. The primary data set included electronically stored daily rainfall records of the Turkish State Meteorological Service for the years from 1993 to 2004 at the 38 climate stations located in the Mediterranean Region. After analyzing the time-depth records of each independent erosive rainfall, RUSLE-R was calculated as the product of average rainfall energy and a 30-min maximum intensity of rainfall. Point RUSLE-R values as long-term averages obtained for each climate station were interpolated using tri-variate functions of longitude, latitude, and elevation to have a map. Summarily, by integrating Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the rainfall erosivity map of the Mediterranean Region in Turkey was updated. Doubtlessly, this study would provide data not only for climate studies but also opportunities for integration of climate data with properties of soil, topography and land use to understand complicated hydrologic processes at watershed and regional scales and would be effectively employed to take soil and water conservation measures. Key words: rainfall erosivity index, RUSLE prediction technology, soil erosion, GIS. Acknowledgement Authors gratefully acknowledge "The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey", TUBITAK, for support within project of CAYDAG-107Y155.

  2. Characteristics of the surface-subsurface flow generation and sediment yield to the rainfall regime and land-cover by long-term in-situ observation in the red soil region, Southern China

    Liu, Yao-Jun; Yang, Jie; Hu, Jian-Min; Tang, Chong-Jun; Zheng, Hai-Jin


    Land cover and rainfall regime are two important factors that affect soil erosion. In this paper, three land cover types - grass cover, litter cover and bare land - were employed to analyze surface runoff, subsurface flow and sediment loss processes in relation to the rainfall regimes in the red soil region of China. Five rainfall regimes were classified according to 393 rainfall events via a k-means clustering method based on the rainfall depth, duration and maximum 30-min intensity. The highest surface runoff coefficient and erosion amount were found on bare land in all five rainfall regimes, and the lowest were found on grass cover. The litter cover generated the highest subsurface flow rate, followed by the grass cover; the lowest was on bare land. For grass cover and litter cover plots, rainfall events of rainfall regime IV which had the longest duration, greatest depth and lowest intensity had the highest surface runoff coefficient, soil erosion amount and subsurface flow rate. For bare land, storm rainfall events of rainfall regime V had the highest intensity, lowest depth and duration, had the highest surface runoff coefficient and soil erosion amount, but the lowest subsurface flow rate. The highest subsurface flow rate of bare land happened in rainfall regime IV. Surface cover was urgently needed to reduce soil erosion. When the lands under dense surface cover, more attention should be paid to rainfall events that of long duration, high depth but low in intensity which commonly occurred in spring. The interactions of surface-subsurface flow and its effects on soil erosion and nutrient loss were worth considering in the red soil region.

  3. Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo


    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

  4. Detection of Spatio-temporal variations of rainfall and temperature extremes over India

    Hari, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.


    Hydrologic disturbances are commonly associated with the phenomenal occurrence of extreme events. The human kind has always been facing problem with hydrologic extremes in terms of deaths and economic loss. Hence, a complete analysis of observed extreme events will have a substantial role in planning, designing and management of the water resource systems. In India, the occurrence of extreme events, such as heavy rainfall, which is directly associated with the flash flood have been observed. For example; in 2005, Mumbai city of India suffered a huge economic damage, due to the record rainfall of 94 cm in a day. In the same year, two other major cities Chennai and Bangalore had also experienced the flash floods due to the heavy rainfall. Hence, occurrence of these recent events instigates researchers to investigate long term variation and trend of extreme rainfall over India. Very few previous studies have been conducted in India either considering a particular region or by considering a single extreme rainfall variable (either frequency or intensity of rainfall). In the present study, rainfall variables such as intensity, duration, frequency and volume are considered to investigate spatio-temporal variations for the entire India. The peak over threshold method with 95 percentile is considered to delineate the extreme variables from the observed rainfall data available (at 1×1 deg) for a period of 1901-2004. The temporal variability is determined by implementing a moving window of 30 years. As well as, the correlation analysis is conducted with the implementation of non-parametric coefficients. The spatio-temporal variability of 50 year return level (RL) for the rainfall intensity is determined considering Generalized Pareto and non-parametric kernel distributions as best fit. To identify the significant changes in the derived RL from first to last time window, a bootstrap-based approach proposed by Kharin and Zwiers (2005, Jl. of Climate, 18, 1156-1173) is

  5. Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

    Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.


    Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi-mum

  6. Response of forestland soil water content to heavy rainfall on Beijing Mountain, northern China

    Jianbo Jia; Xinxiao Yu; Yitao Li


    Continuous recording of precipitation and soil water content (SWC), especially during long periods of tor-rential rainfall, has proven challenging. Over a 16 h period spanning 21–22 July, 2012, Beijing experienced historic rainfall that totaled 164.4 mm. We used large lysimeter technology in four forested plots to record precipitation and variation in SWC at 10-min intervals to quantify the response of forestland SWC to heavy rainfall in a semi-arid area. Mean, maximum and minimum rainfall intensities were 23.4, 46.8 and 12.0 mm/h, respectively. Rainfall was concentrated in 2–6 mm bursts that accounted for 67.32%of the total rainfall event. Soil moisture conditions in this region are strongly dependent on patterns of precipitation. Water infiltration into 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120 and 160 cm soil layers required 1, 5, 20, 37, 46, 52 and 61 mm of precipitation, respectively, and to fully saturate these soil layers required 80, 120, 140, 150, 180, 200 and 220 mm of precipitation, respectively.

  7. Spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall in a small headwater catchment and its effect on hydrograph separation

    Fischer, Benjamin M. C.; van Meerveld, H. J. (Ilja); Seibert, Jan


    Isotope hydrograph separation (IHS) is a valuable tool to study runoff generation processes. To perform an IHS, samples of baseflow (pre-event water) and streamflow are taken at the catchment outlet. For rainfall (event water) either a bulk sample is collected or it is sampled sequentially during the event. For small headwater catchment studies, event water samples are usually taken at only one sampling location in or near the catchment because the spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall is assumed to be small. However, few studies have tested this assumption. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall and its effects on IHS results using detailed measurements from a small pre-alpine headwater catchment in Switzerland. Rainfall was sampled sequentially at eight locations across the 4.3 km2 Zwäckentobel catchment and stream water was collected in three subcatchments (0.15, 0.23, and 0.70 km2) during ten events. The spatial variability in rainfall amount, average and maximum rainfall intensity and the isotopic composition of rainfall was different for each event. There was no significant relation between the isotopic composition of rainfall and total rainfall amount, rainfall intensity or elevation. For eight of the ten studied events the temporal variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall was larger than the spatial variability in the rainfall isotopic composition. The isotope hydrograph separation results, using only one rain sampler, varied considerably depending on which rain sampler was used to represent the isotopic composition of event water. The calculated minimum pre-event water contributions differed up to 60%. The differences were particularly large for events with a large spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall and a small difference between the event and pre-event water isotopic composition. Our results demonstrate that even in small catchments

  8. Statistical Inference for Point Process Models of Rainfall

    Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.


    In this paper we develop maximum likelihood procedures for parameter estimation and model selection that apply to a large class of point process models that have been used to model rainfall occurrences, including Cox processes, Neyman-Scott processes, and renewal processes. The statistical inference procedures are based on the stochastic intensity λ(t) = lims→0,s>0 (1/s)E[N(t + s) - N(t)|N(u), u process is shown to have a simple expression in terms of the stochastic intensity. The main result of this paper is a recursive procedure for computing stochastic intensities; the procedure is applicable to a broad class of point process models, including renewal Cox process with Markovian intensity processes and an important class of Neyman-Scott processes. The model selection procedure we propose, which is based on likelihood ratios, allows direct comparison of two classes of point processes to determine which provides a better model for a given data set. The estimation and model selection procedures are applied to two data sets of simulated Cox process arrivals and a data set of daily rainfall occurrences in the Potomac River basin.

  9. Extreme rainfall events in karst environments: the case study of September 2014 in the Gargano area (southern Italy)

    Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Trabace, Maria; Marchesini, Ivan; Peruccacci, Silvia; Rossi, Mauro; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Parise, Mario; Brunetti, Maria Teresa


    In the first week of September 2014, the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, SE Italy) was hit by an extreme rainfall event that caused several landslides, floods and sinkholes. As a consequence of the floods, two people lost their lives and severe socio-economic damages were reported. The highest peaks of rainfall were recorded between September 3rd and 6th at the Cagnano Varano and San Marco in Lamis rain gauges with a maximum daily rainfall (over 230 mm) that is about 30% the mean annual rainfall. The Gargano Promontory is characterized by complex orographic conditions, with the highest elevation of about 1000 m a.s.l. The geological setting consists of different types of carbonate deposits affected by intensive development of karst processes. The morphological and climatic settings of the area, associated with frequent extreme rainfall events can cause various types of geohazards (e.g., landslides, floods, sinkholes). A further element enhancing the natural predisposition of the area to the occurrence of landslides, floods and sinkholes is an intense human activity, characterized by an inappropriate land use and management. In order to obtain consistent and reliable data on the effects produced by the storm, a systematic collection of information through field observations, a critical analysis of newspaper articles and web-news, and a co-operation with the Regional Civil Protection and local geologists started immediately after the event. The information collected has been organized in a database including the location, the occurrence time and the type of geohazard documented with photographs. The September 2014 extreme rainfall event in the Gargano Promontory was also analyzed to validate the forecasts issued by the Italian national early-warning system for rainfall-induced landslides (SANF), developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Italian national Department for Civil Protection (DPC). SANF compares rainfall measurements and

  10. New algorithm for integration between wireless microwave sensor network and radar for improved rainfall measurement and mapping

    Liberman, Y.; Samuels, R.; Alpert, P.; Messer, H.


    One of the main challenges for meteorological and hydrological modelling is accurate rainfall measurement and mapping across time and space. To date, the most effective methods for large-scale rainfall estimates are radar, satellites, and, more recently, received signal level (RSL) measurements derived from commercial microwave networks (CMNs). While these methods provide improved spatial resolution over traditional rain gauges, they have their limitations as well. For example, wireless CMNs, which are comprised of microwave links (ML), are dependant upon existing infrastructure and the ML' arbitrary distribution in space. Radar, on the other hand, is known in its limitation for accurately estimating rainfall in urban regions, clutter areas and distant locations. In this paper the pros and cons of the radar and ML methods are considered in order to develop a new algorithm for improving rainfall measurement and mapping, which is based on data fusion of the different sources. The integration is based on an optimal weighted average of the two data sets, taking into account location, number of links, rainfall intensity and time step. Our results indicate that, by using the proposed new method, we not only generate more accurate 2-D rainfall reconstructions, compared with actual rain intensities in space, but also the reconstructed maps are extended to the maximum coverage area. By inspecting three significant rain events, we show that our method outperforms CMNs or the radar alone in rain rate estimation, almost uniformly, both for instantaneous spatial measurements, as well as in calculating total accumulated rainfall. These new improved 2-D rainfall maps, as well as the accurate rainfall measurements over large areas at sub-hourly timescales, will allow for improved understanding, initialization, and calibration of hydrological and meteorological models mainly necessary for water resource management and planning.

  11. Identification and characterization of rainfall events responsible for triggering of debris flows and shallow landslides

    Iadanza, Carla; Trigila, Alessandro; Napolitano, Francesco


    The aim of this study is the development of objective and replicable methodologies for the identification, analysis and characterization of rainfall events responsible for the triggering of shallow landslides and debris flows, in order to define empirical rainfall thresholds. The study area is the province of Trento (6208 km2), located in the north-eastern Alps, and characterized by complex orography, with 70% of the area at an altitude above 1000 m. A rigorous statistical methodology has been defined for the identification of the beginning of the triggering event, based on the critical duration, i.e. the minimum dry period duration separating two stochastically independent rainy periods. The critical duration has been calculated for each rain gauge of the studied area and its variability during the months of the year has been analyzed. An analysis of the rainfall spatial variability in a neighborhood of the landslide detachment zone has been carried out. The adopted methods are: the examination of the Monte Macaion radar maps during some summer convective events, the comparison of rainfall records of rain gauges located in a 10 km buffer around the landslide, and the calculation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between pairs of neighboring rain gauges. The following rainfall thresholds have been then calibrated with the frequentist approach and compared: average intensity-event duration (I-D), which represents the rainfall event in its entirety, and intensity-duration associated with the event maximum return period (IRP-DRP), which considers the most critical portion of the event. In the absence of information about the landslide time of activation, the end of the triggering event has been identified using two criteria: the rainfall peak intensity and the last registration of the day. The methodology adopted for the objective identification of the beginning of the triggering event has demonstrated good applicability for rainfall induced landslides. During

  12. Synoptic Analysis of Heavy Rainfall and Flood Observed in Izmir on 20 May 2015 Using Radar and Satellite Images

    Avsar, Ercument


    In this study, a meteorological analysis is conducted on the sudden and heavy rainfall that occurred in Izmir on May 20, 2015. The barotropic model that is observed in upper carts is shown in detail. We can access the data of and analyze the type, severity and amount of many meteorological parameters using the meteorological radars that form a remote sensing system. The one field that uses the radars most intensively is rainfall. Images from the satellite and radar systems are used in the meteorological analysis of the heavy rainfall that occurred in Izmir on 20 May 2015, and the development of the system that led to this rainfall is shown. In this study, data received from Bornova Automatic Meteorological Observation Station (OMGI), which is under the management of Meteorology General Directorate (MGM), Izmir 2. Regional Directorate; satellite images; Radar PPI (Plan Position Indicator) and Radar MAX (Maximum Display) images are evaluated. In addition, synoptic situation, outputs of numerical estimation models, indices calculated from Skew T Log-P diagram are shown. All these results are mapped and analyzed. At the end of these analyses, it is found that this sudden rainfall had developed according to the frontal system motion. A barotropic model occurred on the day of the rainfall over the Aegean Region. As a result of the rainfall that happened in Izmir at 12.00 UTC (Universal Coordinated Time), the May month rainfall record for the last 64 years is achieved with a rainfall amount of 67.7 mm per meter square. Keywords: Izmir, barotropic model, heavy rainfall, radar, synoptic analysis

  13. Teleconnections between Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall and the Mediterranean

    Raicich, Fabio; Pinardi, Nadia; Navarra, Antonio


    The teleconnections with Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall indices are investigated here on an interannual time scale in terms of meteorological and marine dynamics over the Mediterranean area. Sea-level pressure from gridded data sets and from individual stations, together with sea-level data from stations all around the Mediterranean coastlines, are used.In summer (July-August-September, JAS) the sea-level pressure field over the eastern Mediterranean anticorrelates with the Indian monsoon index (correlation coefficient C = -0.5 on average). A Mediterranean pressure index (MPI), defined as the standardized difference between sea-level atmospheric pressure at Mersa Matruh (southeastern Mediterranean) and Marseille (northwestern Mediterranean) stations, anticorrelates with Indian monsoon index even more (C = -0.68). The MPI is proportional to the mean geostrophic surface flow field across an imaginary line joining the two stations and turns out to be significantly correlated with the meridional wind component over the eastern Mediterranean, known as the low-level Etesian wind regime. This wind regime represents the inflow surface field into the African inter-tropical convergence zone and, therefore, has an association with the Indian monsoon regime. The ocean response, evident by sea-level anomalies at coastal stations, shows a maximum anticorrelation with Indian monsoon index in late summer and autumn (September-October-November, SON).The Sahel index anticorrelates with sea-level pressure, with the maximum absolute value in June-July-August. This may be interpreted as a tendency of the Mediterranean sea-level pressure anomalies to precede those of Sahel precipitation, which is characterized by maximum rainfall in July-September. The MPI anticorrelates with Sahel index during and before JAS, indicating that the Etesian wind regime intensity is connected to Sahel rainfall. The sea level again anticorrelates with the Sahel index, with the maximum absolute value in

  14. Localization of rainfall and determination its intensity in the lower layers of the troposphere from the measurements of local RF transmitter characteristics

    Podhorský, Dušan; Fabo, Peter


    The article deals with a method of acquiring the temporal and spatial distribution of local precipitation from measurement of performance characteristics of local sources of high frequency electromagnetic radiation in the 1-3GHz frequency range in the lower layers of the troposphere up to 100 m. The method was experimentally proven by monitoring the GSM G2 base stations of cell phone providers in the frequency range of 920-960MHz using methods of frequential and spatial diversity reception. Modification of the SART method for localization of precipitation was also proposed. The achieved results allow us to obtain the timeframe of the intensity of local precipitation in the observed area with a temporal resolution of 10 sec. A spatial accuracy of 100m in localization of precipitation is expected, after a network of receivers is built. The acquired data can be used as one of the inputs for meteorological forecasting models, in agriculture, hydrology as a supplementary method to ombrograph stations and measurements for the weather radar network, in transportation as part of a warning system and in many other areas.

  15. A Unified Theory of Rainfall Extremes, Rainfall Excesses, and IDF Curves

    Veneziano, D.; Yoon, S.


    Extreme rainfall events are a key component of hydrologic risk management and design. Yet, a consistent mathematical theory of such extremes remains elusive. This study aims at laying new statistical foundations for such a theory. The quantities of interest are the distribution of the annual maximum, the distribution of the excess above a high threshold z, and the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Traditionally, the modeling of annual maxima and excesses is based on extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories. These theories establish that the maximum of n iid variables is attracted as n →∞ to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with a certain index k and the distribution of the excess is attracted as z →∞ to a generalized Pareto distribution with the same index. The empirical value of k tends to decrease as the averaging duration d increases. To a first approximation, the IDF intensities scale with d and the return period T . Explanations for this approximate scaling behavior and theoretical predictions of the scaling exponents have emerged over the past few years. This theoretical work has been largely independent of that on the annual maxima and the excesses. Deviations from exact scaling include a tendency of the IDF curves to converge as d and T increase. To bring conceptual clarity and explain the above observations, we analyze the extremes of stationary multifractal measures, which provide good representations of rainfall within storms. These extremes follow from large deviation theory rather than EV/EE theory. A unified framework emerges that (a) encompasses annual maxima, excesses and IDF values without relying on EV or EE asymptotics, (b) predicts the index k and the IDF scaling exponents, (c) explains the dependence of k on d and the deviations from exact scaling of the IDF curves, and (d) explains why the empirical estimates of k tend to be positive (in the Frechet range) while, based on frequently assumed marginal

  16. Rainfall mechanisms for the dominant rainfall mode over Zimbabwe relative to ENSO and/or IODZM.

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mukwada, Geoffrey


    Zimbabwe's homogeneous precipitation regions are investigated by means of principal component analysis (PCA) with regard to the underlying processes related to ENSO and/or Indian Ocean Dipole zonal mode (IODZM). Station standardized precipitation index rather than direct rainfall values represent the data matrix used in the PCA. The results indicate that the country's rainfall is highly homogeneous and is dominantly described by the first principal mode (PC1). This leading PC can be used to represent the major rainfall patterns affecting the country, both spatially and temporarily. The current practice of subdividing the country into the two seasonal rainfall forecast zones becomes irrelevant. Partial correlation analysis shows that PC1 is linked more to the IODZM than to the traditional ENSO which predominantly demonstrates insignificant association with PC1. The pure IODZM composite is linked to the most intense rainfall suppression mechanisms, while the pure El Niño composite is linked to rainfall enhancing mechanisms.

  17. Modelos da distribuição temporal de chuvas intensas em Piracicaba, SP Time distribution models of intense rainfall in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil

    Décio E. Cruciani


    Full Text Available O estudo da variação temporal de chuvas intensas é de grande importância na hidrologia, para a análise e previsão de eventos extremos, necessárias em projetos de controle de engenharia. Com esse objetivo, foram analisados dados de pluviogramas da cidade de Piracicaba, SP, do período de 1966 a 2000, para se determinar a distribuição temporal de chuvas intensas de 60 e de 120 min de duração. As chuvas de 60 min foram subdivididas em três intervalos iguais e sucessivos de 20 min cada um, enquanto as chuvas de 120 min foram subdivididas em quatro intervalos iguais e sucessivos de 30 min cada um. O modelo de distribuição da precipitação que predominou para as chuvas de 60 e 120 min, foi do tipo exponencial negativo, com 85,7 e 50,7% dos casos, respectivamente. Para as chuvas de 60 min, com altura pluviométrica média de 20,7 mm, a distribuição foi de 72,3, 21,4 e 6,2% do total precipitado, respectivamente, nos três intervalos sucessivos de 20 min. Para as chuvas de 120 min, com altura pluviométrica média de 33,3 mm, o resultado foi de 60,1, 25,2, 11,1 e 3,6%, respectivamente, nos quatro intervalos sucessivos de 30 min. O modelo de distribuição temporal dessas chuvas não foi modificado pelo total precipitado nem pela sua duração, nos intervalos em questão.Time distribution models of intense and short rains are very important in hydrology and for extreme predictions in engineering projects. With this purpose, rain data of Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, from 1966 to 2000 were analyzed to establish time distribution models of 60 and 120 min intense rains, during the rainy season from October through March. Time distribution models were assessed by three intervals of twenty minutes duration, for 60 min rains and by four intervals of thirty minutes duration for 120 min rains. The prevailing precipitation model for both, 60 and 120 min rains was a negative exponential distribution, in 85.7 and 50.7% of cases, respectively. For 60 min

  18. Application of radar data to estimate distributed return periods of extreme rainfall events over Trondheim

    Abdella, Yisak Sultan


    The return period of a given rainfall intensity is an important parameter for the Trondheim municipality since the drainage systems in Trondheim have been and are still being designed on the basis of a selected return period. Since rainfall is a spatially distributed phenomenon, a single event passing over a city can yield different return periods at different locations in the same city. In order to account for this spatial variability, a tool has been developed in this project for determining distributed return periods for rainfall events over Trondheim using the measurements from Rissa radar. The tool includes a method for adjusting radar rainfall using rain gauge measurements and an accumulation technique which accounts for storm movement and temporal variation in intensity. The tool has been tested on two extreme events which occurred on July 29 2007 and August 13 2007. The application on the two events has demonstrated a fully-automated estimation of distributed return periods using readily available data. For the particular rain gauge network in Trondheim, it has also been shown how areas of maximum intensity observed by the radar can be missed by all the gauges. (author)

  19. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano


    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  20. Evaluation of the maximum permissible level of low-intensity electromagnetic radiation at mobile connection frequency (1 GHz) by changes in motor activity of Spirostomum Ambiguum.

    Sarapultseva, E I; Igolkina, J V; Litovchenko, A V


    Electromagnetic radiation at the mobile connection frequency (1 GHz) at maximum energy flow density (10 microW/cm(2)) permitted in Russia causes serious functional disorders in the studied unicellular hydrobionts infusoria Spirostomum ambiguum: reduction of their spontaneous motor activity. The form of biological reaction is uncommon: the effect is threshold, overall, and does not depend on the duration of microwave exposure.

  1. New constraints on the maximum rate of change of the geomagnetic field intensity in Western Europe during the last two millennia

    Gomez-Paccard, Miriam; Osete, Maria Luisa; Chauvin, Annick; Pérez-Asensio, Manuel; Jimenez-Castillo, Pedro


    Available European data indicate that during the past 2500 years there have been periods of rapid intensity geomagnetic fluctuations interspersed with periods of little change. The challenge now is to precisely describe these rapid changes. Due to the difficulty to obtain precisely dated heated materials to obtain a high-resolution description of past geomagnetic field intensity changes, new high-quality archeomagnetic data from archeological heated materials founded in well-defined superposed stratigraphic units are particularly valuable. In this work we report the archeomagnetic study of several groups of ceramic fragments from southeastern Spain that belong to 14 superposed stratigraphic levels corresponding to a surface no bigger than 3 m by 7 m. Between four and eight ceramic fragments were selected per stratigraphic unit. The age of the pottery fragments range from the second half of the 7th to the11th centuries. The dates were established by three radiocarbon dates and by archeological/historical constraints including typological comparisons and well-controlled stratigraphic constrains.Between two and four specimens per pottery fragment were studied. The classical Thellier and Thellier method including pTRM checks and TRM anisotropy and cooling rate corrections was used to estimate paleointensities at specimen level. All accepted results correspond to well-defined single components of magnetization going toward the origin and to high-quality paleointensity determinations. From these experiments nine new high-quality mean intensities have been obtained. The new data provide an improved description of the sharp abrupt intensity changes that took place in this region between the 7th and the 11th centuries. The results confirm that several rapid intensity changes (of about ~15-20 µT/century) took place in Western Europe during the recent history of the Earth.

  2. Time distribution of heavy rainfall events in south west of Iran

    Ghassabi, Zahra; kamali, G. Ali; Meshkatee, Amir-Hussain; Hajam, Sohrab; Javaheri, Nasrolah


    Accurate knowledge of rainfall time distribution is a fundamental issue in many Meteorological-Hydrological studies such as using the information of the surface runoff in the design of the hydraulic structures, flood control and risk management, and river engineering studies. Since the main largest dams of Iran are in the south-west of the country (i.e. South Zagros), this research investigates the temporal rainfall distribution based on an analytical numerical method to increase the accuracy of hydrological studies in Iran. The United States Soil Conservation Service (SCS) estimated the temporal rainfall distribution in various forms. Hydrology studies usually utilize the same distribution functions in other areas of the world including Iran due to the lack of sufficient observation data. However, we first used Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model to achieve the simulated rainfall results of the selected storms on south west of Iran in this research. Then, a three-parametric Logistic function was fitted to the rainfall data in order to compute the temporal rainfall distribution. The domain of the WRF model is 30.5N-34N and 47.5E-52.5E with a resolution of 0.08 degree in latitude and longitude. We selected 35 heavy storms based on the observed rainfall data set to simulate with the WRF Model. Storm events were scrutinized independently from each other and the best analytical three-parametric logistic function was fitted for each grid point. The results show that the value of the coefficient a of the logistic function, which indicates rainfall intensity, varies from the minimum of 0.14 to the maximum of 0.7. Furthermore, the values of the coefficient B of the logistic function, which indicates rain delay of grid points from start time of rainfall, vary from 1.6 in south-west and east to more than 8 in north and central parts of the studied area. In addition, values of rainfall intensities are lower in south west of IRAN than those of observed or proposed by the

  3. New algorithm for integration between wireless microwave sensor network and radar for improved rainfall measurement and mapping

    Y. Liberman


    Full Text Available One of the main challenges for meteorological and hydrological modelling is accurate rainfall measurement and mapping across time and space. To date the most effective methods for large scale rainfall estimates are radar, satellites, and more recently, received signal level (RSL measurements received from commercial microwave networks (CMN. While these methods provide improved spatial resolution over traditional rain gauges, these have their limitations as well. For example, the wireless CMN, which are comprised of microwave links (ML, are dependant upon existing infrastructure, and the ML arbitrary distribution in space. Radar, on the other hand, is known in its limitation in accurately estimating rainfall in urban regions, clutter areas and distant locations. In this paper the pros and cons of the radar and ML methods are considered in order to develop a new algorithm for improving rain fall measurement and mapping, which is based on data fusion of the different sources. The integration is based on an optimal weighted average of the two data sets, taking into account location, number of links, rainfall intensity and time step. Our results indicate that by using the proposed new method we not only generate a more accurate 2-D rainfall reconstructions, compared with actual rain intensities in space, but also the reconstructed maps are extended to the maximum coverage area. By inspecting three significant rain events, we show an improvement of rain rate estimation over CMN or radar alone, almost uniformly, both for instantaneous spatial measurements, as well as in calculating total accumulated rainfall. These new improved 2-D rainfall maps, and the accurate rainfall measurements over large areas at sub-hourly time scales, will allow for improved understanding, initialization and calibration of hydrological and meteorological models necessary, mainly, for water resource management and planning.

  4. Uncertainty assessment in the prediction of extreme rainfall events: an example from the central Spanish Pyrenees

    García-Ruiz, J. M.; Arnáez, J.; White, S. M.; Lorente, A.; Beguería, S.


    Extreme rainfall events occur frequently in the central Pyrenees, but they are responsible for mass movements and short, very intense erosion periods, accompanied at times by loss of human life and high costs of infrastructure. This paper tries to assess the existence of patterns in the spatial distribution of maximum precipitation. The calculation of return periods of the most intense rainfall demonstrates that in the Pyrenees it exhibits an erratic spatial and temporal distribution and can be extremely localized. In the case of precipitation between 150 and 200 mm in 24 h, some influence from the surrounding relief has been found, but this is not the case for precipitation exceeding 200 mm, characterized by the absence of patterns governing their spatial distribution. Geomorphological approaches are, therefore, the only way for assessing the areas more subject to hydromorphological risks.

  5. Humidity Profiles' Effect On The Relationship Between Ice Scattering And Rainfall In Microwave Rainfall Retrievals

    Petkovic, V.; Kummerow, C. D.


    Currently, satellite microwave rainfall retrievals base their algorithm on an observed global average of the relationship between high frequency brightness temperature (Tb) depression and rainfall rate. This makes them very sensitive to differences in the ratio of ice to liquid in the cloud, resulting in regional biases of rainfall estimates. To address this problem we investigate how the environmental conditions that precede raining systems influence the ice to rainfall relationship. The vertical profile of humidity was found to be a key variable in predicting this ratio. We found that dry over moist air conditions are favorable for developing intense, well organized systems such as MCSs in West Africa and the Sahel, characterized by strong Tb depressions and amounts of ice aloft significantly above the globally observed average value. As a consequence, microwave retrieval algorithms misinterpret these systems assigning them unrealistically high rainfall rates. The opposite is true in the Amazon region, where observed raining systems exhibit very little ice while producing high rainfall rates. These regional differences correspond well with a map of radar to radiometer biases of rainfall. Deeper understanding of the influence of environmental conditions on this ice to rain ratio provides a foundation for mapping a global ice-scattering to rainfall rate relationship that will improve satellite microwave rainfall retrievals and our understanding of cloud microphysics globally.

  6. Changing Rainfall and its Impact on Landslides in Sri Lanka

    Uditha Ratnayake; Srikantha Herath


    During the recent past the rainfall pattern in Sri Lanka has shown a noticeable change. This paper describes the effect of this change on the occurrence of landslides and their impacts to eco systems. This study shows that most of the landslides occurring in Sri Lanka during northeast monsoons,southwest monsoons and second inter-monsoon were located in three distinctively separated areas. Analysis of rainfall time series shows a trend of increased lengths of dry periods along with an increasing trend of rainfall intensity, especially after the late seventies.A strong relation is obtained between the location of landslides and the spatial distribution of areas where rainfall intensity is increased.

  7. Effects of errors in velocity tilt on maximum longitudinal compression during neutralized drift compression of intense beam pulses: I. general description

    Kaganovich, Igor D., E-mail: [Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Massidda, Scott; Startsev, Edward A.; Davidson, Ronald C. [Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Vay, Jean-Luc [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Friedman, Alex [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)


    Neutralized drift compression offers an effective means for particle beam pulse compression and current amplification. In neutralized drift compression, a linear longitudinal velocity tilt (head-to-tail gradient) is applied to the non-relativistic beam pulse, so that the beam pulse compresses as it drifts in the focusing section. The beam current can increase by more than a factor of 100 in the longitudinal direction. We have performed an analytical study of how errors in the velocity tilt acquired by the beam in the induction bunching module limit the maximum longitudinal compression. It is found that the compression ratio is determined by the relative errors in the velocity tilt. That is, one-percent errors may limit the compression to a factor of one hundred. However, a part of the beam pulse where the errors are small may compress to much higher values, which are determined by the initial thermal spread of the beam pulse. It is also shown that sharp jumps in the compressed current density profile can be produced due to overlaying of different parts of the pulse near the focal plane. Examples of slowly varying and rapidly varying errors compared to the beam pulse duration are studied. For beam velocity errors given by a cubic function, the compression ratio can be described analytically. In this limit, a significant portion of the beam pulse is located in the broad wings of the pulse and is poorly compressed. The central part of the compressed pulse is determined by the thermal spread. The scaling law for maximum compression ratio is derived. In addition to a smooth variation in the velocity tilt, fast-changing errors during the pulse may appear in the induction bunching module if the voltage pulse is formed by several pulsed elements. Different parts of the pulse compress nearly simultaneously at the target and the compressed profile may have many peaks. The maximum compression is a function of both thermal spread and the velocity errors. The effects of the

  8. Procedure to estimate maximum ground acceleration from macroseismic intensity rating: application to the Lima, Perú data from the October-3-1974-8.1-Mw earthquake

    L. Ocola


    Full Text Available Post-disaster reconstruction management of urban areas requires timely information on the ground response microzonation to strong levels of ground shaking to minimize the rebuilt-environment vulnerability to future earthquakes. In this paper, a procedure is proposed to quantitatively estimate the severity of ground response in terms of peak ground acceleration, that is computed from macroseismic rating data, soil properties (acoustic impedance and predominant frequency of shear waves at a site. The basic mathematical relationships are derived from properties of wave propagation in a homogeneous and isotropic media. We define a Macroseismic Intensity Scale IMS as the logarithm of the quantity of seismic energy that flows through a unit area normal to the direction of wave propagation in unit time. The derived constants that relate the IMS scale and peak acceleration agree well with coefficients derived from a linear regression between MSK macroseismic rating and peak ground acceleration for historical earthquakes recorded at a strong motion station, at IGP's former headquarters, since 1954. The procedure was applied to 3-October-1974 Lima macroseismic intensity data at places where there was geotechnical data and predominant ground frequency information. The observed and computed peak acceleration values, at nearby sites, agree well.

  9. On the relationship of coastal tropical rainfall and the large-scale atmosphere

    Bergemann, Martin; Lane, Todd P


    Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes more than half of the overall rainfall received. Weather and climate models with parametrized convection produce large errors in rainfall in tropical coastal regions, most commonly underestimating rainfall over land and overestimating it over the ocean. Building on an algorithm to objectively identify rainfall that is associated with land-sea interaction we investigate whether the relationship between rainfall in coastal regions and the large-scale atmosphere differs from that over the open ocean or over inland areas. We combine 3-hourly satellite estimates of rainfall with estimates of the large-scale atmospheric state from reanalyses. We find that when grouped by rainfall intensity, medium-intensity coastal rainfall in the tropics occurs in more stable conditions and drier ...

  10. Maximum Fidelity

    Kinkhabwala, Ali


    The most fundamental problem in statistics is the inference of an unknown probability distribution from a finite number of samples. For a specific observed data set, answers to the following questions would be desirable: (1) Estimation: Which candidate distribution provides the best fit to the observed data?, (2) Goodness-of-fit: How concordant is this distribution with the observed data?, and (3) Uncertainty: How concordant are other candidate distributions with the observed data? A simple unified approach for univariate data that addresses these traditionally distinct statistical notions is presented called "maximum fidelity". Maximum fidelity is a strict frequentist approach that is fundamentally based on model concordance with the observed data. The fidelity statistic is a general information measure based on the coordinate-independent cumulative distribution and critical yet previously neglected symmetry considerations. An approximation for the null distribution of the fidelity allows its direct conversi...

  11. Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

    Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan


    Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10), EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.

  12. Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

    Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng


    Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

  13. Intrastorm scale rainfall interception dynamics in a mature coniferous forest stand

    Iida, Shin'ichi; Levia, Delphis F.; Shimizu, Akira; Shimizu, Takanori; Tamai, Koji; Nobuhiro, Tatsuhiko; Kabeya, Naoki; Noguchi, Shoji; Sawano, Shinji; Araki, Makoto


    Canopy interception of rainfall is an important process in the water balance of forests. The intrastorm dynamics of canopy interception is less well understood than event scale interception. Accordingly, armed with measurements of hourly interception intensity (i) from the field, this study is among the first to examine the differences in canopy interception dynamics between the first and second halves of rainfall events to quantify dynamic storage values for a coniferous forest in Japan. At this site, experimental results demonstrated that: (1) the relationship between interception loss (I) and gross rainfall (GR) at the event scale is better explained by a parabolic curve than a linear relationship, and there is a low correlation between rainfall intensity (gr) and i; (2) the ratio of accumulated i during the first half (IF) to that of gr (GRF) was larger than the second half (IS/GRS), with no significant correlations between potential evaporation during first half (PEF) vs IF or the second half (PES) vs IS; and (3) water storage capacity was similar to the magnitude of maximum I. By emphasizing the comparison between IF and IS, this study concludes that the water storage on tree surface is more important than losses by wet canopy evaporation and splash during rain. This study also adds insights into intrastorm interception dynamics of coniferous forests which are necessary to better model and forecast interception losses.

  14. Winter rainfall interception by two mature open-grown trees in Davis, California

    Xiao, Qingfu; McPherson, E. Gregory; Ustin, Susan L.; Grismer, Mark E.; Simpson, James R.


    A rainfall interception measuring system was developed and tested for open-grown trees. The system includes direct measurements of gross precipitation, throughfall and stemflow, as well as continuous collection of micrometeorological data. The data were sampled every second and collected at 30-s time steps using pressure transducers monitoring water depth in collection containers coupled to Campbell CR10 dataloggers. The system was tested on a 9-year-old broadleaf deciduous tree (pear, Pyrus calleryana Bradford) and an 8-year-old broadleaf evergreen tree (cork oak, Quercus suber) representing trees having divergent canopy distributions of foliage and stems. Partitioning of gross precipitation into throughfall, stemflow and canopy interception is presented for these two mature open-grown trees during the 1996-1998 rainy seasons. Interception losses accounted for about 15% of gross precipitation for the pear tree and 27% for the oak tree. The fraction of gross precipitation reaching the ground included 8% by stemflow and 77% by throughfall for the pear tree, as compared with 15% and 58%, respectively, for the oak tree. The analysis of temporal patterns in interception indicates that it was greatest at the beginning of each rainfall event. Rainfall frequency is more significant than rainfall rate and duration in determining interception losses. Both stemflow and throughfall varied with rainfall intensity and wind speed. Increasing precipitation rates and wind speed increased stemflow but reduced throughfall. Analysis of rainfall interception processes at different time-scales indicates that canopy interception varied from 100% at the beginning of the rain event to about 3% at the maximum rain intensity for the oak tree. These values reflected the canopy surface water storage changes during the rain event. The winter domain precipitation at our study site in the Central Valley of California limited our opportunities to collect interception data during non

  15. Random cascade driven rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology: An evaluation of six models and a new generator

    Licznar, Paweł; Łomotowski, Janusz; Rupp, David E.


    Six variations of multiplicative random cascade models for generating fine-resolution (i.e., 5-minute interval) rainfall time series were evaluated for rainfall in Wroclaw, Poland. Of these variations, one included a new beta-normal generator for a microcanonical cascade. This newly proposed model successfully reproduces the statistical behavior of local 5-minute rainfalls, in terms of intermittency as well as variability. In contrast, both the canonical cascade models with either constant or time-scaled parameters and a microcanonical cascade model with a beta generator substantially underestimate 5-minute maximum rainfall intensities. The canonical models also fail to properly reproduce the intermittency of the rainfall process across a range of timescales. New observations are also made concerning the histograms of the breakdown coefficients (BDC). The tendency of the BDC histograms to have values exactly equal to 0.5 is identified and explained by the quality of pluviograph records. Moreover, the hierarchical evolution of BDC histograms from beta-like for long time steps to beta-normal histograms for short time steps is observed for the first time. The potential advantage is shown of synthetic high resolution rainfall time series generated by the revised microcanonical model for use in hydrology, especially hydrodynamic modelling of urban drainage networks.

  16. A comparison of conventional maximum intensity projection with a new depth-specific topographic mapping technique in the CT analysis of proximal tibial subchondral bone density

    Johnston, James D. [University of Saskatchewan, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); University of British Columbia, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Kontulainen, Saija A. [University of Saskatchewan, College of Kinesiology, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Masri, Bassam A.; Wilson, David R. [University of British Columbia, Department of Orthopaedics, Vancouver, BC (Canada)


    The objective was to identify subchondral bone density differences between normal and osteoarthritic (OA) proximal tibiae using computed tomography osteoabsorptiometry (CT-OAM) and computed tomography topographic mapping of subchondral density (CT-TOMASD). Sixteen intact cadaver knees from ten donors (8 male:2 female; mean age:77.8, SD:7.4 years) were categorized as normal (n = 10) or OA (n = 6) based upon CT reconstructions. CT-OAM assessed maximum subchondral bone mineral density (BMD). CT-TOMASD assessed average subchondral BMD across three layers (0-2.5, 2.5-5 and 5-10 mm) measured in relation to depth from the subchondral surface. Regional analyses of CT-OAM and CT-TOMASD included: medial BMD, lateral BMD, and average BMD of a 10-mm diameter area that searched each medial and lateral plateau for the highest ''focal'' density present within each knee. Compared with normal knees, both CT-OAM and CT-TOMASD demonstrated an average of 17% greater whole medial compartment density in OA knees (p < 0.016). CT-OAM did not distinguish focal density differences between OA and normal knees (p > 0.05). CT-TOMASD focal region analyses revealed an average of 24% greater density in the 0- to 2.5-mm layer (p = 0.003) and 36% greater density in the 2.5- to 5-mm layer (p = 0.034) in OA knees. Both CT-OAM and TOMASD identified higher medial compartment density in OA tibiae compared with normal tibiae. In addition, CT-TOMASD indicated greater focal density differences between normal and OA knees with increased depth from the subchondral surface. Depth-specific density analyses may help identify and quantify small changes in subchondral BMD associated with OA disease onset and progression. (orig.)

  17. Strategy for introduction of rainwater management facility considering rainfall event applied on new apartment complex

    KIM, H.; Lee, D. K.; Yoo, S.


    As regional torrential rains become frequent due to climate change, urban flooding happens very often. That is why it is necessary to prepare for integrated measures against a wide range of rainfall. This study proposes introduction of effective rainwater management facilities to maximize the rainwater runoff reductions and recover natural water circulation for unpredictable extreme rainfall in apartment complex scale. The study site is new apartment complex in Hanam located in east of Seoul, Korea. It has an area of 7.28ha and is analysed using the EPA-SWMM and STORM model. First, it is analyzed that green infrastructure(GI) had efficiency of flood reduction at the various rainfall events and soil characteristics, and then the most effective value of variables are derived. In case of rainfall event, Last 10 years data of 15 minutes were used for analysis. A comparison between A(686mm rainfall during 22days) and B(661mm/4days) knew that soil infiltration of A is 17.08% and B is 5.48% of the rainfall. Reduction of runoff after introduction of the GI of A is 24.76% and B is 6.56%. These results mean that GI is effective to small rainfall intensity, and artificial rainwater retarding reservoir is needed at extreme rainfall. Second, set of target year is conducted for the recovery of hydrological cycle at the predevelopment. And an amount of infiltration, evaporation, surface runoff of the target year and now is analysed on the basis of land coverage, and an arrangement of LID facilities. Third, rainwater management scenarios are established and simulated by the SWMM-LID. Rainwater management facilities include GI(green roof, porous pavement, vegetative swale, ecological pond, and raingarden), and artificial rainwater. Design scenarios are categorized five type: 1)no GI, 2)conventional GI design(current design), 3)intensive GI design, 4)GI design+rainwater retarding reservoir 5)maximized rainwater retarding reservoir. Intensive GI design is to have attribute value to

  18. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.


    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results

  19. Ensemble climate projections of mean and extreme rainfall over Vietnam

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.


    A systematic ensemble high resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam has been performed using the PRECIS model developed by the Hadley Center in UK. A 5 member subset of the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) of the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project were simulated and analyzed. The PRECIS model simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 25 km for the baseline period 1961-1990 and a future climate period 2061-2090 under scenario A1B. The results of model simulations show that the model was able to reproduce the mean state of climate over Vietnam when compared to observations. The annual cycles and seasonal averages of precipitation over different sub-regions of Vietnam show the ability of the model in also reproducing the observed peak and magnitude of monthly rainfall. The climate extremes of precipitation were also fairly well captured. Projections of future climate show both increases and decreases in the mean climate over different regions of Vietnam. The analyses of future extreme rainfall using the STARDEX precipitation indices show an increase in 90th percentile precipitation (P90p) over the northern provinces (15-25%) and central highland (5-10%) and over southern Vietnam (up to 5%). The total number of wet days (Prcp) indicates a decrease of about 5-10% all over Vietnam. Consequently, an increase in the wet day rainfall intensity (SDII), is likely inferring that the projected rainfall would be much more severe and intense which have the potential to cause flooding in some regions. Risks due to extreme drought also exist in other regions where the number of wet days decreases. In addition, the maximum 5 day consecutive rainfall (R5d) increases by 20-25% over northern Vietnam but decreases in a similar range over the central and southern Vietnam. These results have strong implications for the management water resources, agriculture, bio diversity and economy and serve as some useful findings to be

  20. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

    S. J. Wood


    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  1. Un método para el análisis de frecuencia regional de lluvias máximas diarias: aplicación en los Andes bolivianos A method for regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall: application in the Bolivian Andes

    José Antonio Luna Vera


    Full Text Available Se presenta un análisis de frecuencia regional con series de lluvia diaria máxima anual para una zona con escasa información. La compleja orografía de montañas y el altiplano de una región en la cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce diferentes patrones de lluvia diaria. La combinación de los Momentos-L y el análisis de conglomerados resultan adecuados para identificarlas regiones homogéneas de las series máximas anuales. El trabajo desarrollado define 4 regiones homogéneas. La región 1 comprende las estaciones ubicadas en el altiplano y la zona Sur Este. La región 2 abarca el altiplano central y la cuenca del Río La Paz, compuesto por cuencas interandinas. La 3 delimita claramente las estaciones de la zona tropical amazónica; y la 4 está compuesta por estaciones ubicadas en las montañas del Norte. Se probaron diversas distribuciones para el análisis regional de frecuencias aplicando la técnica de estaciones-año; los mejores resultados se obtuvieron con las funciones Gumbel y Doble Gumbel. Finalmente se expresan las ecuaciones regionales y se comparan con algunas series puntuales de cada región, con el objeto de verificar la aplicabilidad de la metodología propuesta para fines de diseño hidrológico.A regional frequency analysis of daily annual maximum rainfall series for an area with poor information is presented. The complex topography mountains and the highlands region in the Cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce different patterns of daily rainfall. The combination of L-Moments and cluster analysis are adequate to identify the homogeneous regions of the annual maximum series. The work defines 4 homogeneous regions. Region 1 includes the stations located in the highlands and south-east. Region 2 covers the central highlands and La Paz River Basin, consisting of inter-Andean basins. Region 3 clearly defines the Amazonian basin stations and 4 is composed of stations located in the northern mountains. Different

  2. Extreme Rainfall Impacts in Fractured Permeable Catchments

    Ireson, A. M.; Butler, A. P.


    of recharge: under low rainfall intensities recharge is slow (lags of > 100 days) and through the matrix; under moderate intensities recharge is via the matrix and partially saturated fractures (lags of 10s of days) and, if sustained, can lead to flooding (as in 2000/1); under high intensity rainfall fractures transmit rainfall preferentially, leading to a large, rapid (<1 day) water table response. Given the expectation that extreme rainfall events are likely to become more frequent and intense, our main focus is the preferential recharge mechanism, which has the potential to cause rapid flooding. By examining rainfall-water table response patterns, we demonstrate how the combined intensity-duration characteristics of rainfall events can be used to predict when preferential recharge is likely to occur. A 2D physically based, dual permeability Richards' equation model of the Chalk, which fully couples the unsaturated/saturated zones was developed and conditioned on field observations. This was used in a sensitivity study of water table response to a wide range of rainfall conditions, such as might be expected under future climate scenarios. The model also demonstrated the importance of the soil and weathered chalk layers on matrix and fracture flow response to rainfall infiltration.

  3. Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

    Sreekanth, T. S.

    Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

  4. Rainfall Simulation: methods, research questions and challenges

    Ries, J. B.; Iserloh, T.


    -to-date and the best measurement method for drop-spectra and drop fall velocities. The measured rainfall amounts resulting from the different methods differ by two orders of magnitude, due to the different exposure times and measuring areas, and thus the efficiency also ranges between 0.2 and 108 %. This also shows that a standardized method for the calibration of simulated rainfall should be determined. As a third point, the three major challenges for the experimental soil erosion research of the Physical Geography Department in Trier will be presented: 1) Influence of land-use and treatments, 2) Influence of Sheep (goat) trampling and 3) Influence of wind-driven rain. The presented results indicate increases of the sediment yields due to wind influence between 113 % and at the maximum even 1100 %, that equals one order of magnitude. The main conclusions are: Rainfall simulations are an adequate tool for soil erosion studies with different experimental set-ups. A calibration of the simulated rainfall is necessary, and an appropriate method should be found. Rainfall simulations with small portable simulators show discriminative results depending on land-cover types and treatments. Wind-driven rain increases the soil erosion rate, while the runoff stays almost unaffected. This fact has to be considered for the interpretation of rainfall simulation results gained excluding wind influence, as it is usually the case.

  5. Ensemble simulations of the urban effect on a summer rainfall event in the Great Beijing Metropolitan Area

    Zhong, Shi; Yang, Xiu-Qun


    The Great Beijing Metropolitan Area (GBMA), located in North China, is one of the most rapidly developing regions in the world. In this study, ensemble simulations are conducted to investigate the urban effects on a summertime heavy rainfall event in the GBMA. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that couples with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is used for the ensemble simulation. Results show that the ensemble simulation with a realistic land-use representation of urban areas (i.e. control run) can well reproduce the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the rainfall event. The simulated total precipitation agrees well with observation. Compared with the sensitivity ensemble simulation, in which the urban area is replaced by cropland, the control run generates more precipitation over the southwest of Beijing, while less rainfall is found in the area to the northeast of Beijing. This result suggests that the underlying urban surface and urban canopy physics in the surface layer have remarkable impacts on precipitation. The stronger upward motion along with larger convergence and more moisture transportation caused by the urban dynamic and thermodynamic effects directly contribute to the differences in rainfall distribution between the control run and the sensitivity run. In addition, the urban effects are found to slow the cold front movement due to the intense warm air over the urban area, leading to a delayed occurrence of the peak rainfall. However, the slow-moving cold front over the urban area enhances the maximum precipitation intensity. The evolution of the rainfall pattern during the intensification period of the precipitation event is dependent on the movement of the cold front in both the control and sensitivity experiments, indicating that urban effects tend to modify the precipitation distribution and influence the temporal variation of the rainfall process.

  6. Copula-based IDF curves and empirical rainfall thresholds for flash floods and rainfall-induced landslides

    Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca; Mikoš, Matjaž


    Floods, landslides and debris flows are natural events that occur all over the world and are often induced by extreme rainfall conditions. Several extreme events occurred in Slovenia (Europe) in the last 25 years that caused 18 casualties and approximately 500 million Euros of economic loss. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship was constructed using the Frank copula function for several rainfall stations using high-resolution rainfall data with an average subsample length of 34 years. The empirical rainfall threshold curves were also evaluated for selected extreme events. Post-event analyses showed that rainfall characteristics triggering flash floods and landslides are different. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the inter-event time definition (IETD) and subsample definition methodology can have a significant influence on the position of rainfall events in the intensity-duration space, the constructed IDF curves and on the relationship between the empirical rainfall threshold curves and the IDF curves constructed using the copula approach. Furthermore, a combination of several empirical rainfall thresholds with an appropriate high-density rainfall measurement network can be used as part of the early warning system of the initiation of landslides and debris flows. However, different rainfall threshold curves should be used for lowland and mountainous areas in Slovenia.

  7. prediction of rainfall magnitudes and variations in nigeria

    engr peter ekpo

    Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. .... maximum annual rainfall depth of return period T. ..... of Gdańsk Meteorological Station. ... Landsliding in Pittwater. Australian. Geomechanics: Vol 42 No 1 March 2007. 3.

  8. The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

    Muhammad Suradi


    Full Text Available This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin. The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern.

  9. Multidetector computed tomography of the head in acute stroke: predictive value of different patterns of the dense artery sign revealed by maximum intensity projection reformations for location and extent of the infarcted area

    Gadda, Davide; Vannucchi, Letizia; Niccolai, Franco; Neri, Anna T.; Carmignani, Luca; Pacini, Patrizio [Ospedale del Ceppo, U.O. Radiodiagnostica, Pistoia (Italy)


    Maximum intensity projections reconstructions from 2.5 mm unenhanced multidetector computed tomography axial slices were obtained from 49 patients within the first 6 h of anterior-circulation cerebral strokes to identify different patterns of the dense artery sign and their prognostic implications for location and extent of the infarcted areas. The dense artery sign was found in 67.3% of cases. Increased density of the whole M1 segment with extension to M2 of the middle cerebral artery was associated with a wider extension of cerebral infarcts in comparison to M1 segment alone or distal M1 and M2. A dense sylvian branch of the middle cerebral artery pattern was associated with a more restricted extension of infarct territory. We found 62.5% of patients without a demonstrable dense artery to have a limited peripheral cortical or capsulonuclear lesion. In patients with a 7-10 points on the Alberta Stroke Early Programme Computed Tomography Score and a dense proximal MCA in the first hours of ictus the mean decrease in the score between baseline and follow-up was 5.09{+-}1.92 points. In conclusion, maximum intensity projections from thin-slice images can be quickly obtained from standard computed tomography datasets using a multidetector scanner and are useful in identifying and correctly localizing the dense artery sign, with prognostic implications for the entity of cerebral damage. (orig.)

  10. Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines

    Villafuerte, Marcelino Q.; Matsumoto, Jun; Akasaka, Ikumi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.; Kubota, Hisayuki; Cinco, Thelma A.


    Owing to the increasing concerns about climate change due to the recent extreme rainfall events in the Philippines, long-term trends and variability in rainfall extremes in the country are investigated using 60-year (1951-2010) daily rainfall data from 35 meteorological stations. Rainfall extremes are described using seven extreme precipitation indices (EPI) that characterize daily rainfall in terms of intensity, accumulation, and duration on a seasonal perspective. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test is employed in combination with the moving blocks bootstrapping technique to detect significant trends in EPI. The results suggest a tendency toward a drying condition for the dry season, January-March (JFM), as indicated by statistically significant decreasing trends in seasonal wet days total rainfall (PCPTOT) associated with increasing trends in maximum length of dry spell (LDS). In contrast, statistically significant increasing trends in maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5day) and decreasing trends in LDS denote a wetting condition during the July-September (JAS) season, particularly at stations located in the northwest and central Philippines. The trends obtained are further assessed by examining the longer time series of EPI at four meteorological stations (Aparri, Dagupan, Iloilo, and Masbate) that have rainfall data from 1911 to 2010. The longer historical data revealed that the trends obtained in the shorter period (1951-2010) could either be consistent with the continuous long-term trends, as observed in RX5day during JAS at Aparri and Masbate, or represent interdecadal variability as was observed at Dagupan and Iloilo. The long-term (1911-2010) southwestward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high associated with a weakening of the 850-hPa westerly wind over the South China Sea partly provides a possible cause of the trends in EPI during JAS, whereas the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon contributed somewhat to the trends obtained during

  11. Country-wide rainfall maps from cellular communication networks

    Leijnse, Hidde; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall monitoring using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. Here we show how one cellular telecommunication network can be used to retrieve the space-time dynamics of rainfall for an entire country. A dataset from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (2400) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 km2). This dataset consists of 24 days with substantial rainfall in June - September 2011. A rainfall retrieval algorithm is presented to derive rainfall intensities from the microwave link data, which have a temporal resolution of 15 min. Rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are generated from these rainfall intensities using Kriging. This algorithm is suited for real-time application, and is calibrated on a subset (12 days) of the dataset. The other 12 days in the dataset are used to validate the algorithm. Both

  12. Physically-based quantitative analysis of soil erosion induced by heavy rainfall on steep slopes

    Della Sala, Maria; Cuomo, Sabatino; Novità, Antonio


    Heavy rainstorms cause either shallow landslides or soil superficial erosion in steep hillslopes covered by coarse unsaturated soils (Cascini et al., 2013), even over large areas (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013a). The triggering stage of both phenomena is related to ground infiltration, runoff and overland flow (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013), which are key processes to be investigated. In addition, the mobilization of solid particles deserves a proper physical-based modeling whether a quantitative estimation of solid particles discharge at the outlet of mountain basin is required. In this work, the approaches for soil superficial erosion analysis are firstly reviewed; then, a relevant case study of two medium-sized mountain basins, affected by flow-like phenomena with huge consequences (Cascini et al., 2009) is presented, which motivates a parametric numerical analysis with a physically-based model carried out for a wide class of soil properties and rainfall scenarios (Cuomo et al., 2013b). The achieved results outline that the peak discharge of water and solid particles driven by overland flow depends on rainfall intensity while volumetric solid concentration within the washout is related to the morphometric features of the whole mountain basin. Furthermore, soil suction is outlined as a key factor for the spatial-temporal evolution of infiltration and runoff in the basin, also affecting the discharge of water and solid particles at the outlet of the basin. Based on these insights, selected cases are analyzed aimed to provide a wide class of possible slope erosion scenarios. It is shown that, provided the same amount of cumulated rainfall, the sequence of high and low intensity rainfall events strongly affects the time-discharge at the outlet of the basin without significant variations of the maximum volumetric solid concentration. References Cascini, L., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S., Sorbino, G. (2009). Detection of mechanisms for destructive landslides in Campania region

  13. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho


    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  14. Rainfall estimation using moving cars as rain gauges - laboratory experiments

    Rabiei, E.; Haberlandt, U.; Sester, M.; Fitzner, D.


    The spatial assessment of short time-step precipitation is a challenging task. Low density of observation networks, as well as the bias in radar rainfall estimation motivated the new idea of exploiting cars as moving rain gauges with windshield wipers or optical sensors as measurement devices. In a preliminary study, this idea has been tested with computer experiments (Haberlandt and Sester, 2010). The results have shown that a high number of possibly inaccurate measurement devices (moving cars) provide more reliable areal rainfall estimations than a lower number of precise measurement devices (stationary gauges). Instead of assuming a relationship between wiper frequency (W) and rainfall intensity (R) with an arbitrary error, the main objective of this study is to derive valid W-R relationships between sensor readings and rainfall intensity by laboratory experiments. Sensor readings involve the wiper speed, as well as optical sensors which can be placed on cars and are usually made for automating wiper activities. A rain simulator with the capability of producing a wide range of rainfall intensities is designed and constructed. The wiper speed and two optical sensors are used in the laboratory to measure rainfall intensities, and compare it with tipping bucket readings as reference. Furthermore, the effect of the car speed on the estimation of rainfall using a car speed simulator device is investigated. The results show that the sensor readings, which are observed from manual wiper speed adjustment according to the front visibility, can be considered as a strong indicator for rainfall intensity, while the automatic wiper adjustment show weaker performance. Also the sensor readings from optical sensors showed promising results toward measuring rainfall rate. It is observed that the car speed has a significant effect on the rainfall measurement. This effect is highly dependent on the rain type as well as the windshield angle.

  15. Key pluvial parameters in assessing rainfall erosivity in the south-west development region, Romania

    Monica Dumitraşcu; Carmen-Sofia Dragotă; Ines Grigorescu; Costin Dumitraşcu; Alina Vlăduţ


    Located in the south-western part of Romania, the south-west development region overlaps the main relief forms: the Carpathians mountains, the Getic Subcarpathians, the Getic piedmont, the Romanian plain and the Danube valley. The study aims at providing an overview on the main pluvial parameters and their role in assessing rainfall erosivity in the study area. The authors assessed the occurrence, frequency and magnitude of some of the most significant pluvial parameters and their impact on the climatic aggressiveness in the study area. Thus, the monthly and annual mean and extreme climatic values for different rainfall related parameters (e.g., maximum amounts of precipitation/24 hr, heavy rainfall), as well as relevant indices and indicators for pluvial aggressiveness (Fournier, Fournier Modified, Angot) were calculated. The rainfall erosivity was assessed in order to provide both the spatial distribution of the triggering extreme weather phenomena and the resulted intensity classes for the analysed indices and indicators. The authors used long-term precipitation records (1961–2010) for the selected relevant meteorological stations distributed throughout all analysed relief units.

  16. Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

    Molini, Annalisa; Katul, Gabriel; Porporato, Amilcare


    Possible linkages between climatic fluctuations in rainfall at low frequencies and local intensity fluctuations within single storms is now receiving significant attention in climate change research. To progress on a narrower scope of this problem, the cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by either convective or frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency buildup from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of its heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-tailed power law pdfs across finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. A concomitant marked asymmetry buildup also emerges across finer time scales necessitating skewed probability laws for quantifying the scale-wise evolution of rainfall pdfs. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails, peakedness and asymmetry appearance is proposed and tested by using a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the scale wise evolution of rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction γ and a tail asymmetry coefficient c, also functions of q.

  17. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Elena Tarnavsky


    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  18. Uncertainty of Areal Rainfall Estimation Using Point Measurements

    McCarthy, D.; Dotto, C. B. S.; Sun, S.; Bertrand-Krajewski, J. L.; Deletic, A.


    indicated that the errors of areal rainfall intensities become more significant as the size of the catchment increases and can be decreased with more rain gauges placed in a catchment. The quantified areal rainfall uncertainty benefits further uncertainty analysis in rainfall-driven process modelling.

  19. Spatial analysis of rainfall variation using variogram model parameters of X-band radar images in a small mountainous catchment

    Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Bodoque, José M.; Bermejo, Marcos; Rivero-Honegger, Carlos; Yagüe, Carlos; Monjo, Robert; Tapiador, Francisco J.


    The present study deals the rainfall spatial variability of a small mountainous catchment, which includes the spatial distribution and variability of convective and stratiform events. This work focuses on the precipitation events with hydrological response in Venero-Claro Basin (Avila, Spain). In this basin of 15 square kilometers, flood events of different magnitudes have been often registered. Therefore, any improvement in understanding rainfall characteristics in the area can be of special importance in rainfall estimation and hence to calibrate and validate hydrological models. These enhancements imply more objectivity of risk studies and more predictive and preventive capacity. To separate events by origin it has been used the dimensionless index defined by Monjo (2015), according to the relative temporal distribution of maximum intensities. The main advantages of this method are that it does not require thresholds, so it can be applied for each rain gauge. The geostatistical variogram tool is used to quantify the spatial characteristics of both kinds of events. Hourly rainfall accumulations over the area are computed with observations from one of the 5 existing X-band radar in Spain and 7 rain gauges located in the zone. For each hour the rainfall variogram model has been fitted with the aid of the X-band radar images. Valuable information is extracted from the stratiform and convective ensembles of variogram models. The variogram model parameters are analyzed to determine characteristics of spatial continuity that differentiates stratiform and convective events, and quartiles of sills and ranges in both ensembles are compared.

  20. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino


    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  1. Measuring Physical Activity Intensity

    Full Text Available ... Older Adults Overcoming Barriers Measuring Physical Activity Intensity Target Heart Rate & Estimated Maximum Heart Rate Perceived Exertion ( ... a heavy backpack Other Methods of Measuring Intensity Target Heart Rate and Estimated Maximum Heart Rate Perceived ...

  2. Sources of Uncertainty in Rainfall Maps from Cellular Communication Networks

    Rios Gaona, Manuel Felipe; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Accurate measurements of rainfall are important in many hydrological applications, for instance, flash-flood early-warning systems, hydraulic structures design, agriculture, weather forecasting, and climate modelling. Rainfall intensities can be retrieved from (commercial) microwave link networks. Whenever possible, link networks measure and store the decrease in power of the electromagnetic signal at regular intervals. The decrease in power is largely due to the attenuation by raindrops along the link paths. Such an alternative technique fulfills the continuous strive for measurements of rainfall in time and space at higher resolutions, especially in places where traditional rain gauge networks are scarce or poorly maintained. Rainfall maps from microwave link networks have recently been introduced at country-wide scales. Despite their potential in rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolutions, the uncertainties present in rainfall maps from link networks are not yet fully comprehended. The aim of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of uncertainty present in interpolated rainfall maps from link rainfall depths. In order to disentangle these sources of uncertainty, we classified them into two categories: (1) those associated with the individual microwave link measurements, i.e., the physics involved in the measurements such as wet antenna attenuation, sampling interval of measurements, wet/dry period classification, drop size distribution (DSD), and multi-path propagation; (2) those associated with mapping, i.e., the combined effect of the interpolation methodology, the spatial density of the network, and the availability of link measurements. We computed ~ 3500 rainfall maps from real and simulated link rainfall depths for 12 days for the land surface of The Netherlands. These rainfall maps were compared against quality-controlled gauge-adjusted radar rainfall fields (assumed to be the ground truth). Thus, we were able to not only identify

  3. Uncertainty Analysis in the Evaluation of Extreme Rainfall Trends and Its Implications on Urban Drainage System Design

    Vincenza Notaro


    Full Text Available Future projections provided by climate models suggest that the occurrence of extreme rainfall events will increase and this is evidence that the climate is changing. Because the design of urban drainage systems is based on the statistical analysis of past events, variations in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall represent a critical issue for the estimation of rainfall. For this reason, the design criteria of drainage systems should take into account the trends in the past and the future climate changes projections. To this end, a Bayesian procedure was proposed to update the parameters of depth–duration–frequency (DDF curves to assess the uncertainty related to the estimation of these values, once the evidence of annual maximum rainfall trends was verified. Namely, in the present study, the historical extreme rainfall series with durations of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h for the period of 1950–2008, recorded by the rain gauges located near the Paceco urban area (southern Italy, were analyzed to detect statistically significant trends using the non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test. Based on the rainfall trends, the parameters of the DDF curves for a five‐year return period were updated to define some climate scenarios. Finally, the implications of the uncertainty related to the DDF parameters estimation on the design of a real urban drainage system was assessed to provide an evaluation of its performance under the assumption of climate change. Results showed that the future increase of annual maximum precipitation in the area of study would affect the analyzed drainage system, which could face more frequent episodes of surcharge.

  4. Prediction of stormwater particle loads from impervious urban surfaces based on a rainfall detachment index.

    Brodie, I M


    This paper makes use of Non-Coarse Particle (NCP) data collected from three different impervious surfaces in Toowoomba, Australia. NCP is defined as suspended solids less than 500 microm in size. NCP loads (in mg/m(2)) were derived for 24 storms from a galvanized iron roof, a concrete car park and a bitumen road pavement. A scatter plot analysis was used to identify potential correlations between NCP loads and basic rainfall parameters such as rainfall depth and intensity. An exponential-type trend, consistent with many washoff models, was evident between load and average rainfall intensity for all surfaces. However, load data for some storms did not fit this general trend. Various indices, comprising different combinations of basic rainfall parameters, were evaluated as an alternative to rainfall intensity. A composite index, referred to as the Rainfall Detachment Index, was found to be better than average rainfall intensity in explaining a relationship between NCP load and storm rainfall characteristics. The selected rainfall index utilizes 6-minute rainfall intensities and is a variant of the well known Rainfall Erosivity Index (EI30) used for soil erosion estimation.

  5. Continental-scale impacts of intra-seasonal rainfall variability on simulated ecosystem responses in Africa

    K. Guan


    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to result in an increase of intra-seasonal rainfall variability, which has arisen from concurrent shifts in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality. Changes in intra-seasonal rainfall variability are likely to have important ecological impacts for terrestrial ecosystems, and quantifying these impacts across biomes and large climate gradients is required for a better prediction of ecosystem services and their responses to climate change. Here we use a synthetic weather generator and an advanced vegetation dynamic model (SEIB-DGVM to virtually conduct a series of "rainfall manipulation experiments" to study how changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall variability affect continent-scale ecosystem responses across Africa. We generated different rainfall scenarios with fixed total annual rainfall but shifts in: (i frequency vs. intensity, (ii seasonality vs. frequency, (iii intensity vs. seasonality. These scenarios were fed into the SEIB-DGVM to investigate changes in biome distributions and ecosystem productivity. We find a loss of ecosystem productivity with increased rainfall frequency and decreased intensity at very low rainfall regimes (−1 and low frequency (−1; beyond these very dry regimes, most ecosystems benefit from increasing frequency and decreasing intensity, except in the wet tropics (>1800 mm year−1 where radiation limitation prevents further productivity gains. This finding reconciles seemingly contradictory findings in previous field studies on the direction of rainfall frequency/intensity impacts on ecosystem productivity. We also find that changes in rainy season length can yield more dramatic ecosystem responses compared with similar percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity, with the largest impacts in semi-arid woodlands. This study demonstrates that not all rainfall regimes are ecologically equivalent, and that intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics play a significant role in

  6. Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics

    Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.


    Climate change has altered not only the overall magnitude of rainfall but also their seasonal distribution and interannual variability across the world. Such changes in the rainfall regimes will be most keenly felt in arid and semiarid regions, where the availability and timing of water are key factors controlling biogeochemical cycles, primary productivity, and phenology, in addition to regulating regional agricultural production and economic output. Nevertheless, due to the inherent complexity of the signals, a comprehensive framework to understand seasonal rainfall profiles across multiple timescales and geographical regions is still lacking. Here, we formulate a global measure of seasonality and investigate changes in the seasonal rainfall regime across the tropics in the past century. The seasonality index, which captures the effects of both the magnitude and concentration of the rainy season, is highest in the northeast region of Brazil, western and central Africa, northern Australia, and parts of the Caribbean and Southeast Asia (the seasonally dry tropics). Further decomposing rainfall seasonality into its magnitude, duration, and timing components using spectral techniques and information theory, we find marked increase in the interannual variability of seasonality over most of the dry tropics, implying increasing uncertainty in the intensity, duration, and arrival of seasonal rainfall over the past century. We also show that such increase in variability has occurred in conjunction with shifts in the seasonal timing and changes in its overall magnitude. Thus, it is importance to place the analysis of rainfall regimes in these regions into a seasonal context that is most relevant to local ecological and social processes. These changes, if sustained into the next century, will portend significant shifts in the timing of plant activities and ecosystem composition and distribution, with consequences for water and carbon cycling and water resource management in

  7. The use of simulated rainfall to study the discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff pollution loads.

    Qinqin, Li; Qiao, Chen; Jiancai, Deng; Weiping, Hu


    An understanding of the characteristics of pollutants on impervious surfaces is essential to estimate pollution loads and to design methods to minimize the impacts of pollutants on the environment. In this study, simulated rainfall equipment was constructed to investigate the pollutant discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff (USR). The results indicated that concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) appeared to be higher in the early period and then decreased gradually with rainfall duration until finally stabilized. The capacity and particle size of surface dust, rainfall intensity and urban surface slopes affected runoff pollution loads to a variable extent. The loads of TP, TN and COD showed a positive relationship with the surface dust capacity, whereas the maximum TSS load appeared when the surface dust was 0.0317 g·cm⁻². Smaller particle sizes (rainfall intensity and surface slope enhanced the pollution carrying capacity of runoff, leading to higher pollution loads. Knowledge of the influence factors could assist in the management of USR pollution loads.


    Nori Paulo Griebeler


    Full Text Available

    Este trabalho teve como objetivo a obtenção das relações intensidade-duração-frequência para algumas localidades do Estado de Goiás e Distrito Federal, empregando-se a metodologia da desagregação da chuva de um dia. Os resultados das intensidades de precipitação obtidos pelas equações geradas neste trabalho foram comparados com os obtidos pelas equações ajustadas com base em dados de pluviogramas. As relações geradas com o método de desagregação de chuvas de um dia apresentaram desvios relativos médios que variaram de -1,6% a 43,9%, para alguns municípios nessa região. Isso limita a sua utilização nas localidades para as quais não se ajustaram as equações de regressão.

    PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Chuva intensa; drenagem; intensidade-duração-frequência.

    This study had the objective of obtaining rain intensityduration- frequency information for some sites in the State of Goiás and Distrito Federal, using the one-day rain disaggregation method. The precipitation intensities obtained through the equations generated in this paper were compared to those obtained by adjusted equations based on pluviographic data. The intensityduration-frequency relationships generated through pluviometric data using the one-day rain disaggregation method presented relative mean deviations varying between -1.6% and 43.9%, for some municipalities in this region. This limits its use in sites where regression equations were not adjusted.

    KEY-WORDS: Intense rainfall; drainage; intensity-durationfrequency.

  9. Countrywide rainfall maps from a commercial cellular telecommunication network

    Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information. Many countries do not have continuously operating weather radars, and have no or few rain gauges. A new development is rainfall estimation from microwave links of commercial cellular telecommunication networks. Such networks cover large parts of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The estimation of rainfall using commercial microwave links could therefore become a valuable source of information. The data produced by microwave links is essentially a by-product of the communication between mobile telephones. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. A dataset from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (1500) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 km2). This dataset consists of 24 days with substantial rainfall in June - September 2011. A rainfall retrieval algorithm is presented to derive rainfall intensities from the microwave link data, which have a temporal resolution of 15 min. Rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are generated from these rainfall intensities using Kriging. This algorithm is suited for real-time application, and is calibrated on a subset (12 days) of the dataset. The other 12 days in the dataset are used to validate the algorithm. Both calibration and validation are done using gauge-adjusted radar data

  10. 耕地集约经营与实现土地使用效益最大化探究%Take the Road of Intensive Arable Land to Achieve Maximum Efficiency of Land Use

    张玖霞; 方杰


    In this paper,Meihekou scale intensive arable land to achieve good results as the starting point,the transfer of land from the government guidance to promote,develop policies to create conditions for the scale,speed up the transfer of rural labor to expand the scale of operation in space in the analysis of Meihekou scale intensive arable land on the remarkable results.Meanwhile,for the land transfer process Meihekou exist in many non-standard issues,from land to carry out intensive,in order to achieve maximum efficiency of land use perspective,on how to do large-scale land operation Meihekou proposed measures.%本文以梅河口市做好耕地集约规模经营取得的成效为切入点,从政府引导推动土地流转,制定优惠扶持政策为规模经营创造条件,加快农村劳动力转移为规模经营拓展空间等方面分析了梅河口市在耕地集约规模经营上取得的显著成效。同时,针对梅河口市在土地流转过程中存在的问题,从实现土地使用效益最大化的视角,对梅河口市如何做好土地规模经营提出了相关的对策。

  11. Hydrological response of an Alpine catchment to rainfall and snowmelt events

    Penna, D.; van Meerveld, H. J.; Zuecco, G.; Dalla Fontana, G.; Borga, M.


    Alpine catchments are important sources of fresh water but compared to lower altitude catchments our understanding of the hydrological functioning of these catchments during rainfall and snowmelt events is still limited. The objectives of this study were i) to identify the dominant runoff generation mechanisms in the 0.14-km2 Bridge Creek Catchment in the Italian Dolomites during nine rainfall-runoff events and six snowmelt-runoff events in spring, summer and autumn of 2010-2012; and ii) to assess the effect of the selection of the pre-event water sample on the isotope hydrograph separation results. The isotopic composition of the pre-event water was determined by either a stream water sample taken prior to the event or the average of 19 stream water samples taken during baseflow conditions. The hydrograph separation results for the two methods were very similar for the rainfall events but differed for the snowmelt events. Average event water contributions ranged between 4% and 19% or 2% and 20% of the total runoff during rainfall events, and between 7% and 25% or 9% and 38% during snowmelt events, depending on the method used to determine the isotopic composition of pre-event water. Event water contributions were important during large rainfall events, intense rainfall events and late in the snowmelt season, with maximum event water contributions up to 37% and 46%, depending on the method used for determining the pre-event water composition. The electrical conductivity of stream water tended to first decrease and reach a minimum before peak streamflow and then to increase above pre-event values. The results of this study suggest that during dry conditions, direct channel precipitation and overland flow from the permanently saturated part of the riparian zone dominated the runoff response, with limited contributions of riparian or hillslope groundwater. During wet or very wet conditions (large rainfall events or peak snowmelt), saturation overland flow increased

  12. Exploring social sensing techniques for measuring rainfall and flood response in urban environments

    Koole, Wouter; Sips, Robert-Jan; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire


    Extreme rainfall is expected to occur more often in the future as a result of climate change. To be able to react to this, urban water managers need to accurately know vulnerable spots in the city, as well as the potential impact to society. Currently, detailed information about rainfall intensities in cities, and effects of intense storm events on urban societies is lacking. In this study, we will present first results of social sensing experiments to measure rainfall and flooding using a smartphone app. Users of the app are asked to submit rainfall reports by selecting an rainfall class from a pre-defined list of (6) classes, to register time and location and to make a photo of the rainfall. Rainfall photos will be used in a future experiment for automated retrieval of rainfall classes using computer vision techniques. With the experiments we aim to validate rainfall observations made by lay people and to evaluate factors that influence the willingness of users to contribute observations. The results show that users consistently distinguish heavy and extreme rainfall from drizzle and mild rainfall, but have difficulty in making more detailed distinctions. The main factor driving willingness to contribute to the social rainfall sensing experiments is the perceived usefulness of rainfall reporting.

  13. Investigating the relationship of lightning activity and rainfall: A case study for Crete Island

    Iordanidou, V.; Koutroulis, A. G.; Tsanis, I. K.


    The relationship of lightning activity and rainfall is investigated for rain events of variable intensity. Rain data from 22 gauging stations over the island of Crete and lightning activity from the Global Lightning Network including both cloud-to-ground and some cloud flashes are analyzed for the period September 2012 to June 2014. Local thunderstorms' characteristics are investigated both individually as well as in groups according to the results of k-means clustering algorithm in 3 dimensions (space (x, y) and time (t)) in which the number of clusters is decided by G-means algorithm. Correlation of non-zero pairs of rain intensity and number of flashes is examined at various time intervals, time lags and effective radii. Also, correlation of flash count within 50 km radius around the stations is examined for the rain events of maximum hourly intensity for each gauging station. The highest coincidence of lightning clusters with intense rain events reaches 60% when gauges are 25-30 km from the cluster center. Maximum correlation within non-zero pairs of rain intensity and flashes number is obtained for more intense rain (99th percentile) and for increased flash count within the searching area (more than 10 flashes). Also, correlation is stronger for shorter time windows. The findings of this study improve the understanding of thunderstorm events and could provide staple information for the improvement of forecasting extreme events.

  14. Rainfall Mechanisms for the Dominant Rainfall Mode over Zimbabwe Relative to ENSO and/or IODZM

    Desmond Manatsa


    Full Text Available Zimbabwe’s homogeneous precipitation regions are investigated by means of principal component analysis (PCA with regard to the underlying processes related to ENSO and/or Indian Ocean Dipole zonal mode (IODZM. Station standardized precipitation index rather than direct rainfall values represent the data matrix used in the PCA. The results indicate that the country’s rainfall is highly homogeneous and is dominantly described by the first principal mode (PC1. This leading PC can be used to represent the major rainfall patterns affecting the country, both spatially and temporarily. The current practice of subdividing the country into the two seasonal rainfall forecast zones becomes irrelevant. Partial correlation analysis shows that PC1 is linked more to the IODZM than to the traditional ENSO which predominantly demonstrates insignificant association with PC1. The pure IODZM composite is linked to the most intense rainfall suppression mechanisms, while the pure El Niño composite is linked to rainfall enhancing mechanisms.

  15. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach

    Berti, M.; Martina, M.; Franceschini, S.; Pignone, S.; Simoni, A.; Pizziolo, M.


    Landslide rainfall thresholds are commonly defined as the critical value of two combined variables (e.g. rainfall duration and rainfall intensity) responsible for the occurrence of landslides in a given area. Various methods have been proposed in the literature to predict the rainfall conditions that are likely to trigger landslides, using for instance physically-based models or statistical analysis of historical catalogues. Most of these methods share an implicit deterministic view: the occurrence of landslides can be predicted by comparing the input value (rainfall conditions) with the threshold, and a single output (landslide or no-landslide) is only possible for a given input. In practical applications, however, a deterministic approach is not always applicable. Failure conditions are often achieved with a unique combination of many relevant factors (hydrologic response, weathering, changes in field stress, anthropic activity) and landslide triggering cannot be predicted by rainfall alone. When different outputs (landslide or no-landslide) can be obtained for the same input (rainfall conditions) a deterministic approach is no longer applicable and a probabilistic model is preferable. In this study we propose a new method to evaluate the rainfall thresholds based on Bayes probability. The method is simple, statistically rigorous, and provides a way to define thresholds in complex cases, when conventional approaches become highly subjective. The Bayes theorem is a direct application of conditional probabilities and it allows to computed the conditional probability to have a landslide (A) when a rainfall event of a given magnitude (B) is expected. The fundamental aspect of the Bayes approach is that the landslide probability P(A|B) depends not only on the observed probability of the triggering rainfall P(B|A), but also on the marginal probability of the expected rainfall event P(B). Therefore, both the rainfall that resulted in landslides and the rainfall that not

  16. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth


    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  17. The Wageningen Rainfall Simulator

    Lassu, Tamas; Seeger, K.M.; Peters, P.D.; Keesstra, S.D.


    The set-up and characterisation of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator (RS) at Wageningen University, the Netherlands, are presented. It is equipped with four Lechler nozzles (two nr. 460·788 and two nr. 461·008). The tilting irrigation plot is 6 m long and 2·5 m wide. An electrical pump

  18. Impact of the rainfall pattern on synthetic pesticides and copper runoff from a vineyard catchment

    Payraudeau, Sylvain; Meite, Fatima; Wiegert, Charline; Imfeld, Gwenaël


    Runoff is a major process of pesticide transport from agricultural land to downstream aquatic ecosystems. The impact of rainfall characteristics on the transport of runoff-related pesticide is rarely evaluated at the catchment scale. Here, we evaluate the influence of rainfall pattern on the mobilization of synthetic pesticides and copper fungicides in runoff from a small vineyard catchment, both at the plot and catchment scales. During two vineyard growing seasons in 2015 and 2016 (from March to October), we monitored rainfall, runoff, and concentrations of copper and 20 fungicides and herbicides applied by winegrowers at the Rouffach vineyard catchment (France, Alsace; 42.5 ha). Rainfall data were recorded within the catchment while runoff measurement and flow-proportional water sampling were carried out at the outlet of the plot (1486 m2; 87.5 × 17 m) and the catchment. In total, discharges of the 14 runoff events were continuously monitored between March and October 2015 using bubbler flow modules combined with Venturi channels. Detailed and distributed dataset on pesticide applications were extracted from survey (copper formulations and type of pesticides, amount and application dates). Pools of copper and synthetic pesticides were quantified weekly in the topsoil (0-3 cm) by systematic sampling across the catchment. The concentrations of copper (10 dried soil) and synthetic pesticides (close to the quantification limit, i.e. 0.05 µg.L-1) available in the top soil for off-site transport largely differed over time. Between March and October, an accumulation of copper of 10% was observed in the top-soil while pesticide concentration decreased below the quantification limits after a few days or weeks following application, depending of the compounds. The average runoff generated at the plot scale was very low (0.13% ± 0.30). The maximum runoff reached 1.37% during the storm of July 22, 2015. Synthetic pesticides exported by runoff was less than 1‰ of

  19. Observed and projected urban extreme rainfall events in India

    Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal; Pai, D. S.


    We examine changes in extreme rainfall indices over 57 major urban areas in India under the observed (1901-2010) and projected future climate (2010-2060). Between 1901 and 2010, only four out of the total 57 urban areas showed a significant (p-value urban areas experienced significant increases in the extreme rainfall indices for the different periods. Moreover, rainfall maxima for 1-10 day durations and at 100 year return period did not change significantly over the majority of urban areas in the post-1955 period. Results do not indicate any significant change (p > 0.05) in the pooled mean and distribution of the extreme rainfall indices for the pre- and post-1983 periods revealing an insignificant role of urbanization on rainfall extremes in the major urban areas in India. We find that at the majority of urban areas changes in the extreme rainfall indices are driven by large scale climate variability. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the CORDEX-South Asia program showed a significant bias in the monsoon maximum rainfall and rainfall maxima at 100 year return period for the majority of urban areas. For instance, most of the models fail to simulate rainfall maxima within ±10% bias, which can be considered appropriate for a storm water design at many urban areas. Rainfall maxima at 1-3 day durations and 100 year return period is projected to increase significantly under the projected future climate at the majority of urban areas in India. The number of urban areas with significant increases in rainfall maxima under the projected future climate is far larger than the number of areas that experienced significant changes in the historic climate (1901-2010), which warrants a careful attention for urban storm water infrastructure planning and management.

  20. Impact of urbanization on tropical mesoscale events: investigation of three heavy rainfall events

    Goswami, Prashant; Shivappa, Himesh [CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore (India); Goud, Bharamanagoudra S. [UVCE, Jnana Bharathi, Dept. of civil Engineering, Bangalore Univ., Bangalore (India)


    The growing worldwide trend in urbanization leading to the development of mega cities is likely to have a strong impact on local weather and climate through a variety of effects like Urban Heat Island (UHI), increased surface heat fux and atmospheric air temperature. These changes, in turn, can have a significant impact on energy demands for cooling or warming. It is, therefore, necessary to study these effects through models that comprehensively describe the local atmospheric dynamics in a large-scale environment. In this work we examine the impact of urbanization on the evolution and dynamics of three heavy rainfall events that occurred over Indian cities (Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai) in different seasons using the mesoscale atmospheric model MM5, version-3. Numerical experiments were carried out for each of the events using a 3-nest configuration with a 2 km resolution for the innermost domain. Simulations were carried out for two scenarios; partially urban and fully urban. It was found that urbanization drastically increases maximum surface temperature (ground temperature) for both Mumbai and Chennai event, while for the Bangalore event, the change is mostly in the minimum temperature. In general it was found that urbanization increases the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR). These differences in temperature, prominent in the pre-rainfall period, dissipate during the event window. Urbanization was also found to increase the temperature throughout the depth of the atmospheric column. Of primary concern is the change in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events. Our results show that increased urbanization affects both intensity and spatial distribution of rain. Partial urbanization was found to be associated with more total rain, larger spatial extend of distribution and less intensity, while the converse is true for the fully urban scenario. The impact of the spatial extant of urbanization (large city vs. megacity) was also examined through an

  1. Past, present and future variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    of non-stationary extreme rainfall behaviour, in Denmark as well as worldwide. To provide recommendations on future design intensities it is necessary to explore and understand patterns of temporal variation in urban design rainfall and identify potential drivers behind past, present and future changes....... In addition, there is a need for an extreme value model that can include both regional and temporal explanatory variables, evaluate their significance and on this basis estimate the design rainfall. Both topics are addressed in this thesis. The analysed data material includes 137 years of observed daily...... is not reproduced well by the two climate models assessed. The thesis also presents a framework in which regional and temporal variability of extreme rainfall statistics can be modelled simultaneously. The framework is an extension of the regional model presently used for estimation of urban design intensities...

  2. Downscaled TRMM Rainfall Time-Series for Catchment Hydrology Applications

    Tarnavsky, E.; Mulligan, M.


    Hydrology in semi-arid regions is controlled, to a large extent, by the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall defined in terms of rainfall depth and intensity. Thus, appropriate representation of the space-time variability of rainfall is essential for catchment-scale hydrological models applied in semi-arid regions. While spaceborne platforms equipped with remote sensing instruments provide information on a range of variables for hydrological modelling, including rainfall, the necessary spatial and temporal detail is rarely obtained from a single dataset. This paper presents a new dynamic model of dryland hydrology, DryMOD, which makes best use of free, public-domain remote sensing data for representation of key variables with a particular focus on (a) simulation of spatial rainfall fields and (b) the hydrological response to rainfall, particularly in terms of rainfall-runoff partitioning. In DryMOD, rainfall is simulated using a novel approach combining 1-km spatial detail from a climatology derived from the TRMM 2B31 dataset (mean monthly rainfall) and 3-hourly temporal detail from time-series derived from the 0.25-degree gridded TRMM 3B42 dataset (rainfall intensity). This allows for rainfall simulation at the hourly time step, as well as accumulation of infiltration, recharge, and runoff at the monthly time step. In combination with temperature, topography, and soil data, rainfall-runoff and soil moisture dynamics are simulated over large dryland regions. In order to investigate the hydrological response to rainfall and variable catchment characteristics, the model is applied to two very different catchments in the drylands of North and West Africa. The results of the study demonstrate the use of remote sensing-based estimates of precipitation intensity and volume for the simulation of critical hydrological parameters. The model allows for better spatial planning of water harvesting activities, as well as for optimisation of agricultural activities

  3. East coast lows, atmospheric blocking and rainfall: A Tasmanian perspective

    Pook, Michael; Risbey, James; McIntosh, Peter, E-mail: Mike.Pook@csiro.a [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (A partnership between CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology), Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 (Australia)


    Although the term 'east coast low' is normally associated with intense cyclones near the east coast of mainland Australia, cutoff lows of similar type also affect Tasmania. This paper demonstrates that the cutoff low is a major source of rainfall for the agricultural districts and water catchments of eastern Tasmania. In particular, an analysis of synoptic systems and daily rainfall reveals that cutoff lows are responsible for almost 50% of April to October rainfall in parts of the northeast and a slightly lower proportion in the southeast. The other large contribution to rainfall is from frontal systems but the relative effects of the various synoptic types vary widely across the state as a result of the complex topography. Cutoff lows commonly form the cyclonic portion of a blocking dipole which can have opposing influences on Tasmanian rainfall. The high latitude anticyclone suppresses rainfall in western and southwestern Tasmania, while the cutting off of a relatively small cyclonic component equatorwards of the high frequently results in enhanced rainfall over eastern Tasmania. Results from two climate models indicate that the accurate simulation of blocking and cutoff lows remains difficult to achieve and this has implications for projections of Tasmanian rainfall on seasonal and longer time scales.

  4. Continental-scale impacts of intra-seasonal rainfall variability on simulated ecosystem responses in Africa

    Guan, K.; Good, S. P.; Caylor, K. K.; Sato, H.; Wood, E. F.; Li, H.


    Climate change is expected to modify intra-seasonal rainfall variability, arising from shifts in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality. These intra-seasonal changes are likely to have important ecological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, quantifying these impacts across biomes and large climate gradients is largely missing. This gap hinders our ability to better predict ecosystem services and their responses to climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here we use a synthetic weather generator and an independently validated vegetation dynamic model (SEIB-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, DGVM) to virtually conduct a series of "rainfall manipulation experiments" to study how changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall variability affect continent-scale ecosystem responses across Africa. We generate different rainfall scenarios with fixed total annual rainfall but shifts in (i) frequency vs. intensity, (ii) rainy season length vs. frequency, (iii) intensity vs. rainy season length. These scenarios are fed into SEIB-DGVM to investigate changes in biome distributions and ecosystem productivity. We find a loss of ecosystem productivity with increased rainfall frequency and decreased intensity at very low rainfall regimes (year-1) and low frequency (benefit from increased frequency and decreased intensity, except in the wet tropics (>1800 mm year-1) where radiation limitation prevents further productivity gains. This result reconciles seemingly contradictory findings in previous field studies on the impact of rainfall frequency/intensity on ecosystem productivity. We also find that changes in rainy season length can yield more dramatic ecosystem responses compared with similar percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity, with the largest impacts in semi-arid woodlands. This study demonstrates that intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics play a significant role in influencing ecosystem function and structure through controls on

  5. 红壤裸露坡地次降雨土壤侵蚀规律%Regularity of individual rainfall soil erosion in bare slope land of red soil

    秦伟; 左长清; 晏清洪; 王昭艳; 杜鹏飞; 燕楠


    It is valuable for soil and water loss control and its benefits evaluation to understand the relationship between rainfall and soil erosion process. In order to make clear what rainfall type accelerates soil erosion on slopes of red soil in south part of China, and to ascertain the response of soil erosion intensity to rainfall characteristic under various rainfall types, data of meteorology and hydrology of 134 individual rainfalls in experimental plots on bare slopes of red soil in north part of Jiangxi Province were collected and analyzed. The amount, duration and intensity of rainfall were selected as the characteristic indices for erosive rainfall. Two methods including quick clustering and discriminant clustering were introduced to classify the rainfall types resulting in soil erosion. Pearson correlation analysis was then used to find the main indices that contributed the most to the slope soil erosion. Further, Mann-Kendall test and the other statistics method were used to determine the relationship between soil erosion intensity and the rainfall characteristic indices under different rainfall types. The results showed that the erosive rainfall in north part of Jiangxi Province could be classified into three types: type A (high frequency, short duration, minor amount of rainfall, and strong rainfall intensity), type B (medium frequency, medium duration, medium amount of rainfall, and medium rainfall intensity) and type C (low frequency, long duration, great amount of rainfall, and low rainfall intensity). Soil erosion on bare slopes of red soil in south part of China was mainly caused by type A. During the process of individual rainfall, soil erosion on bare slopes of red soil was mainly affected by the joint influences of rainfall intensity and amount, the former resulted in erosion change directly through the closest index - maximum 30 min rainfall intensity, the latter had indirectly effects by changing the former. With the increase of maximum 30 min

  6. Mathematical model of sediment and solute transport along slope land in different rainfall pattern conditions

    Tao, Wanghai; Wu, Junhu; Wang, Quanjiu


    Rainfall erosion is a major cause of inducing soil degradation, and rainfall patterns have a significant influence on the process of sediment yield and nutrient loss. The mathematical models developed in this study were used to simulate the sediment and nutrient loss in surface runoff. Four rainfall patterns, each with a different rainfall intensity variation, were applied during the simulated rainfall experiments. These patterns were designated as: uniform-type, increasing-type, increasing- decreasing -type and decreasing-type. The results revealed that changes in the rainfall intensity can have an appreciable impact on the process of runoff generation, but only a slight effect on the total amount of runoff generated. Variations in the rainfall intensity in a rainfall event not only had a significant effect on the process of sediment yield and nutrient loss, but also the total amount of sediment and nutrient produced, and early high rainfall intensity may lead to the most severe erosion and nutrient loss. In this study, the calculated data concur with the measured values. The model can be used to predict the process of surface runoff, sediment transport and nutrient loss associated with different rainfall patterns.

  7. Interception of rainfall and surface runoff in the Brazilian Cerrado

    Tarso Oliveira, Paulo; Wendland, Edson; Nearing, Mark; Perea Martins, João


    CI. The average surface runoff under undisturbed Cerrado was less than 1% of the P, and did not have significant correlation (p > 0.05) with P, but had a significant correlation with maximum 30 minute rainfall intensity (I30). This low value for surface runoff indicates that the forest ?oor has a strong influence over surface runoff generation under undisturbed Cerrado. This process is poorly studied; however, we believe this can be a key to understanding the surface runoff generation under undisturbed Cerrado, and in other tropical vegetation, such as the Amazon rainforest.

  8. The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

    Sahany, Sandeep; Venugopal, V.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.


    The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential

  9. Set-up and calibration of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator for soil erosion studies

    Lassu, T.; Seeger, M.


    flow rates (4,5 l/min and 5,5 l/min), resulting in different rainfall intensities and made 2 repetitions each. The average rainfall intensity was 36,8 mm/h at the first and 37,6 mm/h at the second repetition with the lower flow rate (4,5 l/min). With the higher flow rate (5,5 l/min) at the first repetition it was 44,4 mm/h and 46 mm/h at the second one. The maximum and minimum values were 22 mm and 2 mm at the lower (4,5 l/min) flow rate, respectively 26 mm and 4 mm at the higher one (5,5 l/min). In this latter case, the resulting average kinetic energy reached 7 J m-2 mm-1, with a maximum 31,3 J m-2 mm-1 of and a minimum of 2,9 J m-2 mm-1. The Christiansen Uniformity coefficient (CU) for the lower intensities was 66% and 69%, respectively, with the higher intensities slightly better (70% and 72%). The data of the rainfall simulator in Wageningen make it a promising tool for research in soil erosion processes.

  10. Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Álvaro José Back


    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min and the return period T (y in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

  11. Comparison of 3D Maximum intensity projection (MIP reconstruction and 2D T2 Half-Fourier Acquisition Single-Shot Turbo Spin-Echo (HASTE sequence in magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography

    Fuad Julardžija


    Full Text Available Introduction: Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP is a method that allows noninvasive visualization of pancreatobiliary tree and does not require contrast application. It is a modern method based on heavily T2-weighted imaging (hydrography, which uses bile and pancreatic secretions as a natural contrast medium. Certain weaknesses in quality of demonstration of pancreatobiliary tract can be observed in addition to its good characteristics. Our aim was to compare the 3D Maximum intensity projection (MIP reconstruction and 2D T2 Half-Fourier Acquisition Single-Shot Turbo Spin-Echo (HASTE sequence in magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography.Methods: During the period of one year 51 patients underwent MRCP on 3T „Trio“ system. Patients of different sex and age structure were included, both outpatient and hospitalized. 3D MIP reconstruction and 2D T2 haste sequence were used according to standard scanning protocols.Results: There were 45.1% (n= 23 male and 54.9% (n=28 female patients, age range from 17 to 81 years. 2D T2 haste sequence was more susceptible to respiratory artifacts presence in 64% patients, compared to 3D MIP reconstruction with standard error (0.09, result significance indication (p=0.129 and confidence interval (0.46 to 0.81. 2D T2 haste sequences is more sensitive and superior for pancreatic duct demonstration compared to 3D MIP reconstruction with standard error (0.07, result significance indication (p=0.01 and confidence interval (0.59 to 0.87Conclusion: In order to make qualitative demonstration and analysis of hepatobiliary and pancreatic system on MR, both 2D T2 haste sequence in transversal plane and 3D MIP reconstruction are required.

  12. Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

    M. T. Brunetti


    Full Text Available In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four

  13. Effect of rainfall regime and slope on runoff in a gullied loess region on the Loess Plateau in China.

    Fang, H Y; Cai, Q G; Chen, H; Li, Q Y


    Runoff was measured from seven plots with different slopes nested in Tuanshangou catchment on the Loess Plateau to study effect of slopes on runoff in relation to rainfall regimes. Based on nine years of field observation and K-mean clusters, 84 rainfall events were grouped into three rainfall regimes. Rainfall regime A is the group of events with strong rainfall intensity, high frequency, and short duration. Rainfall regime C consists of events with low intensity, long duration, and infrequent occurrence. Rainfall regime B is the aggregation of events of medium intensity and medium duration, and less frequent occurrence. The following results were found: (1) Different from traditional studies, runoff coefficient neither decreased nor increased, but presented peak value on the slope surfaces; (2) For individual plot, runoff coefficients induced by rainfall regime A were the highest, and those induced by rainfall regime C were the lowest; Downslope, the runoff coefficients induced by three rainfall regimes presented the same changing trend, although the peak value induced by regime A occurred on a shorter slope length compared to those by regime B and C; (3) Scale effect on runoff induced by rainfall regime A was the least, and that induced by rainfall regime C was the largest. These results can be explained by the interactions of crusting, soil moisture content, slope length and gradient, and erosion units, etc., in the context of different rainfall regimes.

  14. Observed variability and trends in extreme rainfall indices and Peaks-Over-Threshold series

    H. Saidi


    Full Text Available Intensification of heavy precipitation as discussed in climate change studies has become a public concern, but it has not yet been examined well with observed data, particularly with data at short temporal scale like hourly and sub-hourly data. In this research we digitalized sub-hourly precipitation recorded at the stations of Vercelli (since 1927, Bra (since 1933, Lombriasco (since 1939 and Pallanza (since 1950 in order to investigate historical change in extreme short precipitations. These stations are located in the northwest of Italy. Besides seasonal and yearly maximum of precipitation we adopted two indices of extreme rainfall: the number of events above an extreme threshold (extreme frequency, and the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events (extreme intensity. The results showed a statistically significant increase of the extreme frequency index and spring maximum precipitation for Bra and Lombriasco. The extreme intensity index presented by the means of events above 95th percentile is decreasing for Bra regarding hourly precipitation and increasing for Lombriasco regarding 20 min extreme events. In Pallanza, we noticed only a positive trend of the extreme frequency and extreme intensity indices of events with duration of 30 min. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peak-over-threshold approach was chosen. Investigation presented showed that extreme events have risen in the last 20 yr only for short duration. Here it cannot be said that in our study area recent sub-hourly and hourly precipitation have become unprecedently strong or frequent for all the stations and for all the extreme events duration.

  15. A first-order assessment of climate change effects on rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in New South Wales, Australia

    Yu, Bofu; Murphy, Brian; Vaze, Jai; Rawson, Andrew


    Rainfall has shown considerable secular variation and statistically significant change on the time scale of decades in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The climate change predictions seem to suggest an increased rainfall intensity for the region. To assess the likely impact of climate change on rainfall erosivity for 13 sites in NSW, a daily rainfall erosivity model was used to compare rainfall erosivity values using historical rainfall data and adjusted rainfall data representing future climate scenarios. To use the rainfall erosivity model, 6-min rainfall intensity data from the 13 sites were used to calibrate the model. The historical rainfall data were available for the period of 112 years (1895 - 2006) for the 13 sites. Adjusted rainfall data for 112 years were provided based on output from Global Climate Models, namely CSIRO-MK3.0 (CSIRO, Australia), MIROC-M (Centre for Climate Research, Japan); MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Germany); MRI (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan). The rainfall erosivity model was run for each of the 13 sites, and mean annual, seasonal rainfall erosivity values were contrasted for the present and future climate scenarios. In addition, rainfall erosivity values were compared for average recurrence intervals of 2, 10, and 100 years so that changes to rainfall erosivity during extreme erosive events can be assessed. The results show rainfall erosivity would increase by about 4.6% on average, and the increase occurs mostly in summer (December-January-February). Output from all 4 models suggests that rainfall erosivity would decrease in winter months. Spatially, the change to rainfall erosivity is quite variable, with greater increase mostly occurring along the coast with a temperate climate. As mean annual soil loss is linearly proportional to rainfall erosion, impact on soil loss of a similar magnitude is therefore implied for the 13 sites in NSW.

  16. Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

    Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran


    Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

  17. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite using MET software

    Soma Sen Roy; Subhendu Brata Saha; Hashmi Fatima; S K Roy Bhowmik; P K Kundu


    The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study evaluates the 3-hourly precipitation estimates by this technique as well as the rainfall estimates by the GPI technique using data of the Kalpana-1 satellite, over the Indian region for the south-west monsoon season of 2010 to understand their relative strengths and weaknesses in estimating short period rainfall. The gridded 3 hourly accumulated TRMM satellite (3B42 V6 product or TMPA product) and surface raingauge data for stations over the Indian region for the same period is used as the standard measure of rainfall estimates. The Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) utility of the METv3.0 software, has been used for the evaluation purpose. The results show that the new IMSRA technique is closer to the TMPA rainfall estimate, in terms of areal spread, geometric shape and location of rainfall areas, as compared to the GPI technique. The overlap of matching rainfall areas with respect to TMPA rainfall patches is also higher for the IMSRA estimates as compared to the GPI values. However, both satellite rainfall estimates are observed to be generally higher compared to the TMPA measurements. However, the values for the highest 10% of the rainfall rates in any rainfall patch, is generally higher for rainfall measured by the IMSRA technique, as compared to the estimates by the GPI technique. This may partly be due to the capping maximum limit of 3 mm/hr for rainfall measured by the GPI technique limits the total 3-hour accumulation to 9 mm even during heavy rainfall episodes. This is not so with IMSRA technique, which has no such limiting value. However, this general overestimation of the rainfall amount, measured by both techniques

  18. Rainfall Analyses of Coonoor Hill Station of Nilgiris District for Landslide Studies

    Ramani Sujatha, Evangelin; Suribabu, C. R.


    The most common triggering factor of landslides in a hill terrain is rainfall. Assessment of the extreme and antecedent rainfall events and its quantum is imperative to evaluate the temporal occurrence of landslides. It also plays a vital role in the choice of the preventive measures to be adopted. This study focuses on an in-depth rainfall analysis of Coonoor hill station. The analysis includes the study of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall patterns for a period of 80 years, between 1935 and 2013. Further, one day maximum, 5 day and more antecedent rainfall and its amount is calculated for the years between 2007-2012, 2014 and 2015.The result of the study indicates an increase in the normal rainfall based on the mean of 30 years of data (for the recent decades) and erratic pattern of rainfall during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon south-west monsoon periods. A detailed analysis of daily rainfall for the selected period indicates that extreme highest daily rainfall of more than 300 mm above occurred after consecutive rainfall trigged massive landslides comparing highest rainfall amount around 100 to 180 mm rainfall events.

  19. Canonical correlation analysis of hydrological response and soil erosion under moving rainfall

    Qi-hua RAN; Zhi-nan SHI; Yue-ping XU


    The impacts of rainfall direction on the degree of hydrological response to rainfall properties were investigated using comparative rainfall-runoff experiments on a small-scale slope (4 m×l m),as well as canonical correlation analysis (CCA).The results of the CCA,based on the observed data showed that,under conditions of both upstream and downstream rainfall movements,the hydrological process can be divided into instantaneous and cumulative responses,for which the driving forces are rainfall intensity and total rainfall,and coupling with splash erosion and wash erosion,respectively.The response of peak runoff (Pr) to intensity-dominated rainfall action appeared to be the most significant,and also runoff (R) to rainfall-dominated action,both for upstream-and downstream-moving conditions.Furthermore,the responses of sediment erosion in downstream-moving condition were more significant than those in upstream-moving condition.This study indicated that a CCA between rainfall and hydrological characteristics is effective for further exploring the rainfall-runoff-erosion mechanism under conditions of moving rainfall,especially for the downstream movement condition.

  20. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation – Case Study

    Jarosińska Elżbieta


    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  1. Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Rahman, M. Tauhid Ur; Hoque, Muhammad Azizul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul


    The aim of the present study was to investigate 50 years (1964-2013) of seasonal and annual rainfall trends and their fluctuation over time in northern Bangladesh. After testing the autocorrelation, non-parametric Mann-Kendall test along with Sen Slope estimator was used to examine rainfall trends and their magnitudes. The sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to identify any fluctuations in the trends over time and to detect the possible points of change in the rainfall series. We found that pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall is increasing in most of the rainfall stations. The only decrement in pre-monsoon rainfall was found for Ishurdi (1.28 mm/year). However, the sequential Mann-Kendall test detected decreasing pre-monsoon rainfall trend after early the 1990s. Monsoon rainfall showed a decreasing trend in the majority of the area studied. The maximum decrement in monsoon rainfall was found for Sylhet station (8.10 mm/year) and minimum in Mymensingh (1.53 mm/year). An upward monsoon rainfall trend was found for Rangpur (2.02 mm/year). Annual rainfall followed the monsoon rainfall trend. However, all of the positive and negative trends were found statistically non-significant at 95% confidence limit with the only exception for monsoon and annual rainfall at Rajshahi station. Rajshahi station was the only region where the monsoon and annual rainfall has a significant negative trend at 95% confidence limit. The sequential Mann-Kendall test detected several non-significant points of change for seasonal and annual rainfall at most of the stations. Periodic fluctuations were also detected. We observed that there were decreasing seasonal rainfall trend after early the 1990s for the majority of the stations.

  2. Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S.

    Matsui, Toshihisa; Mocko, David; Lee, Myong-In; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Suarez, Max J.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.


    Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.

  3. Borneo vortex and mesoscale convective rainfall

    Koseki, S.; Koh, T.-Y.; Teo, C.-K.


    We have investigated how the Borneo vortex develops over the equatorial South China Sea under cold surge conditions in December during the Asian winter monsoon. Composite analysis using reanalysis and satellite data sets has revealed that absolute vorticity and water vapour are transported by strong cold surges from upstream of the South China Sea to around the Equator. Rainfall is correspondingly enhanced over the equatorial South China Sea. A semi-idealized experiment reproduced the Borneo vortex over the equatorial South China Sea during a "perpetual" cold surge. The Borneo vortex is manifested as a meso-α cyclone with a comma-shaped rainband in the northeast sector of the cyclone. Vorticity budget analysis showed that the growth/maintenance of the meso-α cyclone was achieved mainly by the vortex stretching. This vortex stretching is due to the upward motion forced by the latent heat release around the cyclone centre. The comma-shaped rainband consists of clusters of meso-β-scale rainfall cells. The intense rainfall in the comma head (comma tail) is generated by the confluence of the warmer and wetter cyclonic easterly flow (cyclonic southeasterly flow) and the cooler and drier northeasterly surge in the northwestern (northeastern) sector of the cyclone. Intense upward motion and heavy rainfall resulted due to the low-level convergence and the favourable thermodynamic profile at the confluence zone. In particular, the convergence in the northwestern sector is responsible for maintenance of the meso-α cyclone system. At both meso-α and meso-β scales, the convergence is ultimately caused by the deviatoric strain in the confluence wind pattern but is significantly self-enhanced by the nonlinear dynamics.

  4. Urban Flooding Analysis Using Radar Rainfall Data and 2-D Hydrodynamic Model: A Pilot Study of Back Cover Area, Portland, Maine

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Collis, Scott [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)


    This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with a heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.

  5. Rainfall event profiles: importance in ecohydrology, geomorphology, and soil management

    Dunkerley, D.


    The importance of the temporal structure of rainfall events is widely, but not universally, recognised. In agricultural research, the role of event structure has been quite well explored (e.g. in relation to leachates from manure, or in agrochemical washoff). However, in dryland hydrology, and in soil erosion research, much less attention has been paid to the role of aspects such as intensity variations or rain intermittency. Moreover, changes in rainfall event profiles form a little-explored aspect of ongoing climatic change, but one that may have great significance in ecohydrology and in geomorphology. The importance of rain event structure is clearly demonstrated from rainfall simulation experiments on dryland soils in arid NSW Australia. A series of small plot experiments using drop-forming rainfall simulation was established in order to explore the effects of varying event profiles on infiltration and the generation of runoff. Experiments all had the same rain event duration, the same mean rain rate, and the same total event depth. However, event profile, including peak intensity, and intermittency, were varied by using computer-controlled pumps. The rain rates and event profiles were designed to mimic the character of natural rainfall events in the study area. Results show that events with uniform rainfall rates, as widely used in rainfall simulations in soil erosion research and in hydrology, yield the highest apparent soil infiltrability and the least runoff volume. Events with peak intensity late in the event, when soils are already wet, yield the lowest apparent infiltrability and the highest runoff volume, as well as the highest runoff intensity. These results need to be confirmed for other soil types, but suggest that event profile is an important determinant of soil hydraulic behaviour that warrants increased attention in many fields, including ecohydrology, geomorphology, and soil management.

  6. East Australian rainfall events: Interannual variations, trends, and relationships with the Southern Oscillation

    Nicholls, N.; Kariko, A. (Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne (Australia))


    The number, average length, and average intensity of rain events at five stations located in eastern Australia have been calculated for each year from 1910 to 1988, using daily rainfall totals. A rain event has been defined as a period of consecutive days on which rainfall has been recorded on each day. Inter-relationships between the rain-event variables (at each station and between stations), along with their relationships with annual rainfall and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, have been investigated. Trends in the time series of the rain-event variables have also been examined. Annual rainfall variations are found to be primarily caused by variations in intensity. Fluctuations in the three rain-event variables are essentially independent of each other. This is due, in some cases, to inter-relationships at interdecadal time scales offsetting relationships of the opposite sense at shorter time scales. The large-scale geographical nature of east Australian rainfall fluctuations mainly reflects interstation correlations in the number of events. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation affects rainfall mainly by influencing the number and intensity of rain events. Twentieth century increases in east Australian rainfall have been due, primarily, to increased numbers of events. Intensity of rain events has generally declined, offsetting some of the increase in rainfall expected from more frequent events. Information about historical trends in australian rain events might provide a basis for determining if rainfall change were due to an enhanced greenhouse effect. 31 refs., 13 figs.

  7. Choice of rainfall inputs for event-based rainfall-runoff modeling in a catchment with multiple rainfall stations using data-driven techniques

    Chang, Tak Kwin; Talei, Amin; Alaghmand, Sina; Ooi, Melanie Po-Leen


    Input selection for data-driven rainfall-runoff models is an important task as these models find the relationship between rainfall and runoff by direct mapping of inputs to output. In this study, two different input selection methods were used: cross-correlation analysis (CCA), and a combination of mutual information and cross-correlation analyses (MICCA). Selected inputs were used to develop adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in Sungai Kayu Ara basin, Selangor, Malaysia. The study catchment has 10 rainfall stations and one discharge station located at the outlet of the catchment. A total of 24 rainfall-runoff events (10-min interval) from 1996 to 2004 were selected from which 18 events were used for training and the remaining 6 were reserved for validating (testing) the models. The results of ANFIS models then were compared against the ones obtained by conceptual model HEC-HMS. The CCA and MICCA methods selected the rainfall inputs only from 2 (stations 1 and 5) and 3 (stations 1, 3, and 5) rainfall stations, respectively. ANFIS model developed based on MICCA inputs (ANFIS-MICCA) performed slightly better than the one developed based on CCA inputs (ANFIS-CCA). ANFIS-CCA and ANFIS-MICCA were able to perform comparably to HEC-HMS model where rainfall data of all 10 stations had been used; however, in peak estimation, ANFIS-MICCA was the best model. The sensitivity analysis on HEC-HMS was conducted by recalibrating the model by using the same selected rainfall stations for ANFIS. It was concluded that HEC-HMS model performance deteriorates if the number of rainfall stations reduces. In general, ANFIS was found to be a reliable alternative for HEC-HMS in cases whereby not all rainfall stations are functioning. This study showed that the selected stations have received the highest total rain and rainfall intensity (stations 3 and 5). Moreover, the contributing rainfall stations selected by CCA and MICCA were found to be located near the outlet of

  8. Can SAPHIR Instrument Onboard MEGHATROPIQUES Retrieve Hydrometeors and Rainfall Characteristics ?

    Goyal, J. M.; Srinivasan, J.; Satheesh, S. K.


    capability to retrieve rainfall and hydrometeors and especially channel 6 has the maximum potential for it. Thus this capabilities of SAPHIR can be used to develop precipitation product in combination with other GPM satellites to get higher temporal resolution rainfall product for the world.

  9. Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

    Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei


    Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

  10. Estimation of Real-Time Flood Risk on Roads Based on Rainfall Calculated by the Revised Method of Missing Rainfall

    Eunmi Kim


    Full Text Available Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities is on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and the growth of impermeable areas due to urbanization. This study suggests a method to estimate real-time flood risk on roads for drivers based on the accumulated rainfall. The amount of rainfall of a road link, which is an intensive type, is calculated by using the revised method of missing rainfall in meteorology, because the rainfall is not measured on roads directly. To process in real time with a computer, we use the inverse distance weighting (IDW method, which is a suitable method in the computing system and is commonly used in relation to precipitation due to its simplicity. With real-time accumulated rainfall, the flooding history, rainfall range causing flooding from previous rainfall information and frequency probability of precipitation are used to determine the flood risk on roads. The result of simulation using the suggested algorithms shows the high concordance rate between actual flooded areas in the past and flooded areas derived from the simulation for the research region in Busan, Korea.

  11. Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

    Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai


    Most of the landslide cases in Taiwan were triggered by rainfall or earthquake events. The heavy rainfall in the typhoon seasons, from June to October, causes the landslide hazard more serious. Renai Towhship is of the most large landslide cases after 2009 Typhoon Morakot (from Aug. 5 to Aug. 10, 2009) in Taiwan. Around 2,744 landslides cases with the total landslide area of 21.5 km2 (landslide ratio =1.8%), including 26 large landslide cases, induced after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Towhship. The area of each large landslides case is more than 0.1 km2, and the area of the largest case is around 0.96 km2. 58% of large landslide cases locate in the area with metamorphosed sandstone. The mean slope of 26 large landslide cases ranges from 15 degree to 56 degree, and the accumulated rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot ranges from 530 mm to 937 mm. Three methods, including frequency ratio method (abbreviated as FR), weights of evidence method (abbreviated as WOE), and logistic regression method (abbreviated as LR), are used in this study to establish the landslides susceptibility in the Renai Township, Nantou County, Taiwan. Eight landslide related-factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, land use, distance to drainage, distance to fault, accumulation rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot, are used to establish the landslide susceptibility models in this study. The landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot is also used to test the model performance in this study. The mean accumulated rainfall in Renai Township during 2009 typhoon Morakot was around 735 mm with the maximum 1-hr, 3-hrs, and 6-hrs rainfall intensity of 44 mm/1-hr, 106 mm/3-hrs and 204 mm/6-hrs, respectively. The range of original susceptibility values established by three methods are 4.0 to 20.9 for FR, -33.8 to -16.1 for WOE, and -41.7 to 5.7 for LR, and the mean landslide susceptibility value are 8.0, -24.6 and 0.38, respectively. The AUC values are 0.815 for FR, 0.816 for WOE, and 0

  12. A rainfall-based warning model for shallow landslides

    Zeng, Yi-Chao; Wang, Ji-Shang; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Yin, Hsiao-Yuan; Lo, Wen-Chun


    According to the statistical data of past rainfall events, the climate has changed in recent decades. Rainfall patterns have presented a more concentrated, high-intensity and long-duration trend in Taiwan. The most representative event is Typhoon Morakot which induced a total of 67 enormous landslides by the extreme amount of rain during August 7 to 10 in 2009 and resulted in the heaviest casualties in southern Taiwan. In addition, the nature of vulnerability such as steep mountains and rushing rivers, fragile geology and loose surface soil results in more severe sediment-relative disasters, in which shallow landslides are widespread hazards in mountainous regions. This research aims to develop and evaluate a model for predicting shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in mountainous area. Considering the feasibility of large-scale application and practical operation, the statistical techniques is adopted to form the landslide model based on abundant historical rainfall data and landslide events. The 16 landslide inventory maps and 15 variation results by comparing satellite images taken before and after the rainfall event were interpreted and delineated since 2004 to 2011. Logit model is utilized for interpreting the relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide events delineated from satellite. Based on the analysis results of logistic regression, the rainfall factors that are highly related to shallow landslide occurrence are selected which are 3 hours rainfall intensity I3 (mm/hr) and the effective cumulative precipitation Rt (mm) including accumulated rainfall at time t and antecedent rainfall. A landslide rainfall triggering index (LRTI) proposed for assessing the occurrence potential of shallow landslides is defined as the product of I3 and Rt. A form of probability of shallow landslide triggered threshold is proposed to offer a measure of the likelihood of landslide occurrence. Two major critical lines which represent the lower and upper

  13. Measuring Physical Activity Intensity

    Full Text Available ... Adults Overcoming Barriers Measuring Physical Activity Intensity Target Heart Rate & Estimated Maximum Heart Rate Perceived Exertion (Borg Rating of Perceived Exertion Scale) ...

  14. Intensidade-duração-frequência de chuvas para o Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul Intensity-duration-frequency of rainfall for the State of Mato Grosso do Sul

    Glenio G. Santos


    Full Text Available A ausência de equações de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Mato Grosso do Sul e a necessidade de maior segurança na elaboração de projetos e dimensionamento de obras hidráulicas, foram o alicerce para, com este estudo, se obtivessem e espacializassem as relações de intensidade, duração e frequência de precipitações para o Estado. Utilizou-se, então, da metodologia da desagregação da chuva de 24 h e se utilizaram dados pluviométricos consistidos de 109 estações disponíveis no banco de dados da Agência Nacional de Águas. As equações de chuvas intensas apresentaram bom ajuste, com coeficientes de determinação acima de 0,99 para todas as localidades estudadas. Os parâmetros ajustados apresentaram alta variabilidade resultando em grandes diferenças nos valores de precipitações intensas esperadas para as diferentes localidades. A espacialização permitiu boa visualização das diferenças evidenciando maiores intensidades esperadas na região centro-norte e as menores intensidades nas regiões sudeste e sudoeste do Estado. Os resultados demonstram a importância da obtenção da equação de intensidade-duração-frequência para cada localidade e sua utilização para a realização de estudos e projetos hidráulicos.Rain intensity data are necessary to increase security of hydraulic projects. The objective of this study was to determine the rain storm equations and the spatial distribution of rain intensity for the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The equations were obtained by disaggregation of 24 h rain data from 109 pluviometric stations available in the National Water Agency (ANA data bank. These equations resulted in coefficients of determination above 0,99 for all localities. The adjusted parameters showed high variability, resulting from different rain intensities in different places of the State. The interpolation of data allowed good visualization of the differences, evidencing higher intensities of rains

  15. Toxicity of parking lot runoff after application of simulated rainfall.

    Greenstein, D; Tiefenthaler, L; Bay, S


    Stormwater runoff is an important source of toxic substances to the marine environment, but the effects of antecedent dry period, rainfall intensity, and duration on the toxicity of runoff are not well understood. In this study, simulated rainfall was applied to parking lots to examine the toxicity of runoff while controlling for antecedent period, intensity, and duration of rainfall. Parking areas were divided into high and low use and maintained and unmaintained treatments. The parking stalls were cleaned by pressure washing at time zero. Simulated rainfall was then applied to subplots of the parking lots so that antecedent periods of 1, 2, and 3 months were achieved, and all of the runoff was collected for analysis. On a separate parking lot, rainfall was applied at a variety of intensities and durations after a 3-month antecedent period. Runoff samples were tested for toxicity using the purple sea urchin fertilization test. Every runoff sample tested was found to be toxic. Mean toxicity for the sea urchin fertilization test ranged from 2.0 to 12.1 acute toxic units. The toxicity increased rapidly during the first month but then decreased approximately to precleaning levels and remained there. No difference in toxicity was found between the different levels of use or maintenance treatments. The intensity and duration of rainfall were inversely related to degree of toxicity. For all intensities tested, toxicity was always greatest in the first sampling time interval. Dissolved zinc was most likely the primary cause of toxicity based on toxicant characterization of selected runoff samples.

  16. Is rainfall erosivity influenced by climate change?. A case study in a Mediterranean Climate area of North East Spain

    Ramos, Maria C.


    One of the main characteristics of the Mediterranean climate is the high intensity rainfall events usually recorded in autumn and spring. Those events usually concentrate a high percentage of annual rainfall. Different studies carried out in the Mediterranean countries suggest that notable changes in seasonal precipitation regimes have occurred during the second half of the 20th century. In addition, precipitation extremes seem to increase in association with global warming, which may favour erosion processes. Under this hypothesis one question arise: is the rainfall erosivity increasing influenced by climate change? In this work rainfall erosivity and its variability in the last two decades was analysed in an area located NE Spain, where erosion processes of high magnitude are recorded. The main land use in that area is grape vines, which due to the scarce soil cover is usually associated with the highest erosion rates. The study area was located in the Penedès depression (North East Spain). Hourly data from four observatories Els Hostalets de Pierola (UTM X: 400664, Y: 4598608m, elv: 326m ), La Granada ( X:393758; Y:4580393), Sant Martí Sarroca (X: 385556; Y:4581486, elv: 257m) and Font_Rubi (X: 385118, Y:4587935. elev: 415 m ) belonging to the period 1997-2013 were used in the analysis together with a tipping bucket rainfall series recorded at one minute intervals (10 years within the period 1996-2012). Rainfall erosivity was quantified by the index rainfall kinetic energy multiplied by the maximum intensity in 30minute periods (E*Imax30). The Imax30 was estimated from the relationship between hourly and 30 minute data obtained for the tipping bucket series using the Marquard algoritme. In order to analsye changes in rainfall erosivity, the annual and monthly number of erosive events were analysed for each observatory and in each year, the events were classified into intervals according to their erosivity. The intervals used were: 0-100; 100-200; 200-300; 300

  17. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri


    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  18. Space–Time Characterization of Rainfall Field in Tuscany

    Alessandro Mazza


    Full Text Available Precipitation during the period 2001–2016 over the northern and central part of Tuscany was studied in order to characterize the rainfall regime. The dataset consisted of hourly cumulative rainfall series recorded by a network of 801 rain gauges. The territory was divided into 30 × 30 km2 square areas where the annual and seasonal Average Cumulative Rainfall (ACR and its uncertainty were estimated using the Non-Parametric Ordinary Block Kriging (NPOBK technique. The choice of area size was a compromise that allows a satisfactory spatial resolution and an acceptable uncertainty of ACR estimates. The daily ACR was estimated using a less computationally expensive technique, averaging the cumulative rainfall measurements in the area. The trend analysis of annual and seasonal ACR time series was performed by means of the Mann–Kendall test. Four climatic zones were identified: the north-western was the rainiest, followed by the north-eastern, northcentral and south-central. An overall increase in precipitation was identified, more intense in the north-west, and determined mostly by the increase in winter precipitation. On the entire territory, the number of rainy days, mean precipitation intensity and sum of daily ACR in four intensity groups were evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. The main result was a magnitude of the ACR trend evaluated as 35 mm/year, due mainly to an increase in light and extreme precipitations. This result is in contrast with the decreasing rainfall detected in the past decades.

  19. Analysis of spatial autocorrelation patterns of heavy and super-heavy rainfall in Iran

    Rousta, Iman; Doostkamian, Mehdi; Haghighi, Esmaeil; Ghafarian Malamiri, Hamid Reza; Yarahmadi, Parvane


    Rainfall is a highly variable climatic element, and rainfall-related changes occur in spatial and temporal dimensions within a regional climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation changes of Iran's heavy and super-heavy rainfall over the past 40 years. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of 664 meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011 are used. To analyze the changes in rainfall within a decade, geostatistical techniques like spatial autocorrelation analysis of hot spots, based on the Getis-Ord G i statistic, are employed. Furthermore, programming features in MATLAB, Surfer, and GIS are used. The results indicate that the Caspian coast, the northwest and west of the western foothills of the Zagros Mountains of Iran, the inner regions of Iran, and southern parts of Southeast and Northeast Iran, have the highest likelihood of heavy and super-heavy rainfall. The spatial pattern of heavy rainfall shows that, despite its oscillation in different periods, the maximum positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall includes areas of the west, northwest and west coast of the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, a negative spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall is observed in central Iran and parts of the east, particularly in Zabul. Finally, it is found that patterns of super-heavy rainfall are similar to those of heavy rainfall.

  20. A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall- induced landslide


    Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the "landslide probability judgement factor" can be worked out through grading and overlapping "geological condition influencing factor" and "rainfall influencing factor", by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of "two factors" grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide.

  1. Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

    Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.


    Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

  2. Hic Sunt Leones: Anomalous Scaling In Rainfall

    Ferraris, L.; Gabellani, S.; Provenzale, A.; Rebora, N.

    In recent years the spatio-temporal intermittency of precipitation fields has often been quantified in terms of scaling and/or multifractal behaviour. In this work we anal- yse the spatial scaling properties of precipitation intensity fields measured during the GATE radar experiment, and compare the results with those obtained from surrogate data generated by nonlinearly filtered, linear stochastic processes and from random shuffling of the original data. The results of the study suggest a spurious nature of the spatial multifractal behaviour of the GATE fields and indicate that claims of multifrac- tality and anomalous scaling in rainfall may have to be reconsidered.

  3. Properties of Extreme Point Rainfall I

    Harremoës, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    Extreme rainfall has been recorded by the larger municipalities in Denmark since 1933. National intensity-duration-frequency curves were produced on this basis for engineering application in the whole of Denmark. In 1979, on the initiative of The Danish Water Pollution Control Committee under...... The Society of Danish Engineers, the old municipal rain gauges for measuring extreme rain were exchanged with a modern system of gauges tabbed electronically from a central computer at The Danish Meteorological Institute. The data have revealed a geographical variability that calls for revision...

  4. Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

    Rahardjo Harianto


    Full Text Available Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in designing a slope repair or slope failure preventive measure. In this study, the historical rainfall data were analyzed and investigated to understand the characteristics of rainfall in Singapore. The frequency distribution method was used to estimate future rainfall characteristics in Singapore. New intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves for rainfall in Singapore were developed for six different durations (10, 20, 30 min and 1, 2 and 24 h and six frequencies (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The new IDF curves were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses to determine the variation of factor of safety of residual soil slopes under different rainfall intensities in Singapore.

  5. Comparison of recorded rainfall with quantitative precipitation forecast in a rainfall-runoff simulation for the Langat River Basin, Malaysia

    Billa, Lawal; Assilzadeh, Hamid; Mansor, Shattri; Mahmud, Ahmed; Ghazali, Abdul


    Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3-12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R2 = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R2 = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R2 = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through `Nowcasting', thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings.

  6. Rainfall simulators in hydrological and geomorphological sciences: benefits, applications and future research directions

    Iserloh, Thomas; Cerdà, Artemi; Fister, Wolfgang; Seitz, Steffen; Keesstra, Saskia; Green, Daniel; Gabriels, Donald


    Rainfall simulators are used extensively within the hydrological and geomorphological sciences and provide a useful investigative tool to understand many processes, such as: (i) plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion; (ii) irrigation and crop management, and; (iii) investigations into flooding within a laboratory setting. Although natural rainfall is desirable as it represents actual conditions in a given geographic location, data acquisition relying on natural rainfall is often hindered by its unpredictable nature. Furthermore, rainfall characteristics such as the intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy cannot be spatially or temporally regulated or repeated between experimentation. Rainfall simulators provide a suitable method to overcome the issues associated with depending on potentially erratic and unpredictable natural rainfall as they allow: (i) multiple measurements to be taken quickly without waiting for suitable natural rainfall conditions; (ii) the simulation of spatially and/or temporally controlled rainfall patterns over a given plot area, and; (iii) the creation of a closed environment, allowing simplified measurement of input and output conditions. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and as such, rainfall simulators differ in their design, rainfall characteristics and research application. Although this impedes drawing meaningful comparisons between studies, this allows researchers to create a bespoke and tailored rainfall simulator for the specific research application. This paper summarises the rainfall simulators used in European research institutions (Universities of Trier, Valencia, Basel, Tuebingen, Wageningen, Loughborough and Ghent) to investigate a number of hydrological and geomorphological issues and includes details on the design specifications (such as the extent and characteristics of simulated rainfall), as well as a discussion of the purpose and application of the rainfall simulator.

  7. The changing nature of rainfall during the early history of Mars

    Craddock, Robert A.; Lorenz, Ralph D.


    Several explanations have been proposed for the temporal differences in geologic processes associated with the modification of martian impact craters, which occurred throughout the Noachian, and the formation of valley networks, which occurred during the Noachian/Hesperian transition. Here we show that it could be a result of the changing nature of rainfall as the primordial atmospheric pressure on Mars waned through time. We calculate the terminal velocity and resulting kinetic energy from raindrops > 0.5 mm in diameter that would impact the surface of Mars in a CO2-rich atmosphere ranging in pressure from 0.5 to 10 bars. Our analyses indicate that the primordial atmosphere of Mars could not have exceeded ∼4.0 bars as raindrop sizes would have been limited to crater modification would not have occurred. At pressures between ∼3.0 and 4.0 bars, sediment transport from rain splash could occur, but surface runoff would have been limited, which could explain the modification of impact craters. Once atmospheric pressures waned to ∼1.5 bars, rainfall intensity could begin to exceed the infiltration capacity of most soils, which would be necessary to initiate martian valley network formation. Due to the lower gravity, a storm on Mars that occurred in a 1 bar atmosphere could generate raindrops with a maximum diameter of ∼7.3 mm compared to 6.5 mm on the Earth. However, rainfall from such a storm would be only be ∼70% as intense on Mars, primarily due to the lower martian gravity and resulting lower terminal velocities of the rain drops.

  8. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    A. J. Pitman


    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  9. Using rainfall patterns and IDF in flood hazard assessment

    Beckers, Joost


    Spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall are commonly used as model input in e.g. urban drainage design or flood hazard studies. The hydraulic model that is used is oftentimes too computationally demanding to alllow for a simulation of a long historical time series. Instead, a limited set of high-intensity events is selected that is considered representative for the extreme rainfall over a given period at the location of interest. The set of events can be compiled from historical records, from stochastic rainfall generators or NWP model simulations. In general, there are numerous sources of realistic and plausible rainfall patterns and it is possible to compile a set of representative rainfall events for an application of interest. However, in order to apply the set of events to a flood study, a probability must be assigned to each event. This poses a challenge. Ideally, the event probabilities are derived from Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. For a given event and for a given duration, the exceedance frequency of the rainfall depth directly follows from the IDF curves. However, for a different duration, the exceedance frequency of the rainfall depth for the same event will typically be different. The exceedance frequency thus depends on the duration. Unfortunately, for many applications, the critical duration is not known beforehand. In the proposed approach this problem is overcome by selecting a set of events that covers extreme rainfall over a range of durations. A probability is assigned to each event such that the collective set of events reproduces the IDF curves. This way, the set of events not only represents the spatio-temporal rainfall patterns that may occur in the area, but also the IDF curves. The proposed method thus offers a way to use realistic rainfall patterns in combination with IDF curves in probabilistic flood studies. We will explain how the event probabilities are derived and demonstrate that a relatively small set of 50 to 100 events

  10. Particularities of periods with maximum water flow on the rivers from the Suceava hydrographic basin (1981–2005



    Full Text Available Suceava river basin gets its tributaries from the eastern slopes of the northern group of the Eastern Romanian Carpathians, situated under the influence of Baltic air masses, which bring rainfalls and cold weather, felt into the water flow regime of rivers in the region studied. This water flow regime varies from month to month, with the maximum flow having the most important role in the restoration of underground water reserves. This study examines the temporal (frequency, duration and intensity and quantitative (volume and flow parameters of periods with maximum flow, at monthly and seasonal level, revealing the differences in the water flow regime induced by the relief’s morphometric particularities (altitude, fragmentation degree, exhibition. For the evaluation of mentioned parameters was appealed to the TML 2.1 extension from the HydroOffice software package, which uses quantitative thresholds, depending on which it is set the appearance, and disappearance of periods with maximum flow.

  11. Efficacy on maximum intensity projection of contrast-enhanced 3D spin echo imaging with improved motion-sensitized driven-equilibrium preparation in the detection of brain metastases

    Bae, Yun Jung; Choi, Byung Se; Yoon, Yeon Hong; Woo, Leonard Sun; Jung, Cheol Kyu; Kim, Jae Hyoung [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Kyung Mi [Dept. of Radiology, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    To evaluate the diagnostic benefits of 5-mm maximum intensity projection of improved motion-sensitized driven-equilibrium prepared contrast-enhanced 3D T1-weighted turbo-spin echo imaging (MIP iMSDE-TSE) in the detection of brain metastases. The imaging technique was compared with 1-mm images of iMSDE-TSE (non-MIP iMSDE-TSE), 1-mm contrast-enhanced 3D T1-weighted gradient-echo imaging (non-MIP 3D-GRE), and 5-mm MIP 3D-GRE. From October 2014 to July 2015, 30 patients with 460 enhancing brain metastases (size > 3 mm, n = 150; size ≤ 3 mm, n = 310) were scanned with non-MIP iMSDE-TSE and non-MIP 3D-GRE. We then performed 5-mm MIP reconstruction of these images. Two independent neuroradiologists reviewed these four sequences. Their diagnostic performance was compared using the following parameters: sensitivity, reading time, and figure of merit (FOM) derived by jackknife alternative free-response receiver operating characteristic analysis. Interobserver agreement was also tested. The mean FOM (all lesions, 0.984; lesions ≤ 3 mm, 0.980) and sensitivity ([reader 1: all lesions, 97.3%; lesions ≤ 3 mm, 96.2%], [reader 2: all lesions, 97.0%; lesions ≤ 3 mm, 95.8%]) of MIP iMSDE-TSE was comparable to the mean FOM (0.985, 0.977) and sensitivity ([reader 1: 96.7, 99.0%], [reader 2: 97, 95.3%]) of non-MIP iMSDE-TSE, but they were superior to those of non-MIP and MIP 3D-GREs (all, p < 0.001). The reading time of MIP iMSDE-TSE (reader 1: 47.7 ± 35.9 seconds; reader 2: 44.7 ± 23.6 seconds) was significantly shorter than that of non-MIP iMSDE-TSE (reader 1: 78.8 ± 43.7 seconds, p = 0.01; reader 2: 82.9 ± 39.9 seconds, p < 0.001). Interobserver agreement was excellent (κ > 0.75) for all lesions in both sequences. MIP iMSDE-TSE showed high detectability of brain metastases. Its detectability was comparable to that of non-MIP iMSDE-TSE, but it was superior to the detectability of non-MIP/MIP 3D-GREs. With a shorter reading time, the false-positive results of MIP i

  12. Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Entropy and Copula Theories

    Lan Zhang


    Full Text Available Multivariate hydrologic frequency analysis has been widely studied using: (1 commonly known joint distributions or copula functions with the assumption of univariate variables being independently identically distributed (I.I.D. random variables; or (2 directly applying the entropy theory-based framework. However, for the I.I.D. univariate random variable assumption, the univariate variable may be considered as independently distributed, but it may not be identically distributed; and secondly, the commonly applied Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (g is not able to capture the nonlinear dependence structure that usually exists. Thus, this study attempts to combine the copula theory with the entropy theory for bivariate rainfall and runoff analysis. The entropy theory is applied to derive the univariate rainfall and runoff distributions. It permits the incorporation of given or known information, codified in the form of constraints and results in a universal solution of univariate probability distributions. The copula theory is applied to determine the joint rainfall-runoff distribution. Application of the copula theory results in: (i the detection of the nonlinear dependence between the correlated random variables-rainfall and runoff, and (ii capturing the tail dependence for risk analysis through joint return period and conditional return period of rainfall and runoff. The methodology is validated using annual daily maximum rainfall and the corresponding daily runoff (discharge data collected from watersheds near Riesel, Texas (small agricultural experimental watersheds and Cuyahoga River watershed, Ohio.

  13. Laboratory-Measured Rainfall Effects on LWIR Soil Reflectance

    Howington, S. E.; Ballard, J., Jr.; Wilhelms, S.


    The long-wave infrared reflectance of soils will often have distinct spectral characteristics that depend on the soil's physical and spectral properties. Rainfall has the effect of sorting soil particles at the ground surface, thus changing its long-wave infrared reflectance. This study examines how rainfall alters the measured directional-hemispherical thermal infrared (8-14 μm) spectral reflectance by comparing disturbed soil with undisturbed soil and pre-rain with post-rain conditions. The study uses a soil with a specified sand/silt ratio and a calibrated, laboratory rainfall simulator. For an accumulated rainfall of 8 cm, the mean disturbed soil thermal infrared spectral reflectance within 8.1 - 9.2 μm waveband increases from an initial reflectance of 13 percent to a maximum reflectance of 31 percent. Sixty percent of this reflectance change occurred with only 1 cm accumulated rainfall. This study shows that, for this described disturbed sand/silt soil mixture, small accumulated rainfall amounts significantly alter the directional-hemispherical thermal infrared spectral reflectance.


    Xiaofan LI


    A lag correlation analysis is conducted with a 21-day TOGA COARE cloud-resolving model simulation data to identify the phase relation between surface rainfall and convective available potential energy (CAPE) and associated physical processes. The analysis shows that the maximum negative lag correlations between the model domain mean CAPE and rainfall occurs around lag hour 6. The minimum mean CAPE lags mean and convective rainfall through the vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor convergence, and heat divergence whereas it lags stratiform rainfall via the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions, vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor storage, and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.

  15. Using long-term daily satellite based rainfall data (1983-2015) to analyze spatio-temporal changes in the sahelian rainfall regime

    Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Guichard, Francoise; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus


    The sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a strong spatial as well as intra- and inter-annual variability. The satellite based African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) daily gridded rainfall estimates with a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution provides the possibility for in-depth studies of seasonal changes over a 33-year period (1983-2015). Here we analyze rainfall regime variables that require daily observations: onset, cessation, and length of the wet season; seasonal rainfall amount; number of rainy days; intensity and frequency of rainfall events; number, length, and cumulative duration of dry spells. Rain gauge stations and MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) data were used to evaluate the agreement of rainfall variables in both space and time, and trends were analyzed. Overall, ARC2 rainfall variables reliably show the spatio-temporal dynamics of seasonal rainfall over 33 years when compared to gauge and MSWEP data. However, a higher frequency of low rainfall events (spell characteristics). Most rainfall variables (both ARC2 and gauge data) show negative anomalies (except for onset of rainy season) from 1983 until the end of the 1990s, from which anomalies become mostly positive and inter-annual variability is higher. ARC2 data show a strong increase in seasonal rainfall, wet season length (caused by both earlier onset and a late end), number of rainy days, and high rainfall events (>20 mm day-1) for the western/central Sahel over the period of analysis, whereas the opposite trend characterizes the eastern part of the Sahel.

  16. Stochastic modeling of hourly rainfall times series in Campania (Italy)

    Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.


    Occurrence of flowslides and floods in small catchments is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Consequently, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between recorded rainfall data and observed landslides and/or river discharges. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction, which can allow gaining larger lead-times. Analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR, ARMA, ARX, ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time intervals. More useful for this issue are the so-called DRIP (Disaggregated Rectangular Intensity Pulse) and NSRP (Neymann-Scott Rectangular Pulse) model [Heneker et al., 2001; Cowpertwait et al., 2002], usually adopted to generate synthetic point rainfall series. In this paper, the DRIP model approach is adopted, in which the sequence of rain storms and dry intervals constituting the structure of rainfall time series is modeled as an alternating renewal process. Final aim of the study is to provide a useful tool to implement an early warning system for hydrogeological risk management. Model calibration has been carried out with hourly rainfall hieght data provided by the rain gauges of Campania Region civil

  17. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.


    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  18. First flush characteristics of rainfall runoff from a paddy field in the Taihu Lake watershed, China.

    Li, Songmin; Wang, Xiaoling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Jiansheng; Tu, Jiamin


    Nonpoint storm runoff remains a major threat to surface water quality in China. As a paddy matures, numerous fertilizers are needed, especially in the rainy seasons; the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainfall runoff from farmland is much higher than at other times, and this poses a great threat to water bodies and is the main reason for water eutrophication, especially in high concentration drainages. To date, most studies regarding the characteristics of pollutants in rainfall runoff have mainly been concentrated on urban runoff and watershed runoff; therefore, it is particularly important to investigate the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss in rainfall runoff from paddy fields. To study the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss and whether the first flush effect exists, continuous monitoring of the rainfall runoff process of six rainfall events was conducted in 2013, of which four rainfall events during storm, high, middle, and low intensity rainfalls were analyzed, and runoff and quality parameters, such as suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), ammonium nitrogen (NH4(+)-N), nitrate nitrogen (NO3(-)-N), total phosphorus (TP), and phosphate (PO4(3-)-P), were analyzed to determine the relationship between runoff and water quality. The paddy field is located north of Wuxi Lake Basin along the Hejia River upstream in Zhoutie town, Yixing city. An analysis of the load distribution during rainfall runoff was conducted. Event mean concentration (EMC) was used to evaluate the pollution situation of the paddy field's rainfall runoff. A curve of the dimensionless normalized cumulative load (L) vs. normalized cumulative flow (F) (L-F curve), the probability of the mass first flush (MFFn), and the pollutants carried by the initial 25% of runoff (FF25) were used to analyze the first flush effect of the paddy field runoff, and different contaminants show different results: the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus fluctuate and

  19. A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes

    Spekkers, M.H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.


    In this paper, a database of water-related insurance damage claims related to private properties and content was analysed. The aim was to investigate whether high numbers of damage claims were associated with high rainfall intensities. Rainfall data were used for the period of 2003–2010 in the Nethe

  20. Lightning and Rainfall Characteristics in Elevated vs. Surface Based Convection in the Midwest that Produce Heavy Rainfall

    Joshua S. Kastman


    Full Text Available There are differences in the character of surface-based and elevated convection, and one type may pose a greater threat to life or property. The lightning and rainfall characteristics of eight elevated and eight surface-based thunderstorm cases that occurred between 2007 and 2010 over the central Continental United States were tested for statistical differences. Only events that produced heavy rain (>50.8 mm·day−1 were investigated. The nonparametric Mann–Whitney test was used to determine if the characteristics of elevated thunderstorm events were significantly different than the surface based events. Observations taken from these cases include: rainfall–lightning ratios (RLR within the heavy rain area, the extent of the heavy rainfall area, cloud-to-ground (CG lightning flashes, CG flashes·h−1, positive CG flashes, positive CG flashes·h−1, percentage of positive CG flashes within the heavy rainfall area, and maximum and mean rainfall amounts within the heavy rain area. Results show that elevated convection cases produced more rainfall, total CG lightning flashes, and positive CG lightning flashes than surface based thunderstorms. More available moisture and storm morphology explain these differences, suggesting elevated convection is a greater lightning and heavy rainfall threat than surface based convection.

  1. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    E. Coughlan de Perez


    Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

  2. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Stephens, Elisabeth; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; van Aalst, Maarten; van den Hurk, Bart; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian


    In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

  3. Rainfall erosivity in New Zealand

    Klik, Andreas; Haas, Kathrin; Dvorackova, Anna; Fuller, Ian


    Rainfall and its kinetic energy expressed by the rainfall erosivity is the main driver of soil erosion processes by water. The Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Factor (R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation is one oft he most widely used parameters describing rainfall erosivity. This factor includes the cumulative effects of the many moderate-sized storms as well as the effects oft he occasional severe ones: R quantifies the effect of raindrop impact and reflects the amopunt and rate of runoff associated with the rain. New Zealand is geologically young and not comparable with any other country in the world. Inordinately high rainfall and strong prevailing winds are New Zealand's dominant climatic features. Annual rainfall up to 15000 mm, steep slopes, small catchments and earthquakes are the perfect basis for a high rate of natural and accelerated erosion. Due to the multifacted landscape of New Zealand its location as island between the Pacific and the Tasmanian Sea there is a high gradient in precipitation between North and South Island as well as between West and East Coast. The objective of this study was to determine the R-factor for the different climatic regions in New Zealand, in order to create a rainfall erosivity map. We used rainfall data (breakpoint data in 10-min intervals) from 34 gauging stations for the calcuation of the rainfall erosivity. 15 stations were located on the North Island and 19 stations on the South Island. From these stations, a total of 397 station years with 12710 rainstorms were analyzed. The kinetic energy for each rainfall event was calculated based on the equation by Brown and Foster (1987), using the breakpoint precipitation data for each storm. On average, a mean annual precipitation of 1357 mm was obtained from the 15 observed stations on the North Island. Rainfall distribution throughout the year is relatively even with 22-24% of annual rainfall occurring in spring , fall and winter and 31% in summer. On the South Island

  4. Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

    Willems, Patrick


    Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

  5. The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a high-resolution convective permitting model

    Chan, S. C.; Kendon, E. J.; Roberts, N. M.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.


    Flash flooding is often caused by sub-hourly rainfall extremes. Here, we examine southern UK sub-hourly 10 min rainfall from Met Office state-of-the-art convective-permitting model simulations for the present and future climate. Observational studies have shown that the duration of rainfall can decrease with temperature in summer in some regions. The duration decrease coincides with an intensification of sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This suggests that rainfall duration and sub-hourly rainfall intensity may change in future under climate change with important implications for future changes in flash flooding risk. The simulations show clear intensification of sub-hourly rainfall, but we fail to detect any decrease in rainfall duration. In fact, model results suggest the opposite with a slight (probably insignificant) lengthening of both extreme and non-extreme rainfall events in the future. The lengthening is driven by rainfall intensification without clear changes in the shape of the event profile. Other metrics are also examined, including the relationship between intense 10 min rainfall and temperature, and return levels changes; all are consistent with results found for hourly rainfall. No evaluation of model performance at the sub-hourly timescale is possible, highlighting the need for high-quality sub-hourly observations. Such sub-hourly observations will advance our understanding of the future risks of flash flooding.

  6. Maximum Autocorrelation Factorial Kriging

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Pedersen, John L.


    This paper describes maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis, maximum autocorrelation factorial kriging, and its application to irregularly sampled stream sediment geochemical data from South Greenland. Kriged MAF images are compared with kriged images of varimax rotated factors from...


    ZHANG Jian-hai; ZHU Xiao-ming; WANG Li-hua


    Study was carried out on two landfall typhoons Haitang and Matsa, which affected Zhejiang province seriously in 2005. Firstly, the similarity and difference between the two typhoon-induced heavy rains were compared and it was pointed out that both of them brought strong large-scale precipitation and the maximum centers of rainfall were located on the north side of the landfall site. Making landfall on Fujian, Haitang was weaker than Matsa in intensity but surpassed it in rainfall. Then with focus on intensity,moving speed, structure of typhoon, circulation and terrain, the two typhoon-related heavy rains were compared and analyzed. Results show that the asymmetrical distribution of rainfall was closely related to the structure of typhoons themselves, moisture transportation and mesoscale terrain. In contrast to the south side, the north side was hotter and wetter and water vapor was also more abundant. The phenomenon of more rainfall induced by Haitang was in connection with the following reasons. Invading cold air led to rainfall increases, weakened dynamic field and slower movement both benefited precipitation. For the last part, the cold characteristic of air mass over Zhejiang was also a favorable factor for the rain.

  8. A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

    Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra


    The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

  9. Radar rainfall estimation for the identification of debris-flow precipitation thresholds

    Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco


    Identification of rainfall thresholds for the prediction of debris-flow occurrence is a common approach for warning procedures. Traditionally the debris-flow triggering rainfall is derived from the closest available raingauge. However, the spatial and temporal variability of intense rainfall on mountainous areas, where debris flows take place, may lead to large uncertainty in point-based estimates. Nikolopoulos et al. (2014) have shown that this uncertainty translates into a systematic underestimation of the rainfall thresholds, leading to a step degradation of the performances of the rainfall threshold for identification of debris flows occurrence under operational conditions. A potential solution to this limitation lies on use of rainfall estimates from weather radar. Thanks to their high spatial and temporal resolutions, these estimates offer the advantage of providing rainfall information over the actual debris flow location. The aim of this study is to analyze the value of radar precipitation estimations for the identification of debris flow precipitation thresholds. Seven rainfall events that triggered debris flows in the Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) are analyzed using data from a dense raingauge network and a C-Band weather radar. Radar data are elaborated by using a set of correction algorithms specifically developed for weather radar rainfall application in mountainous areas. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of debris flows are identified in the form of average intensity-duration power law curves using a frequentist approach by using both radar rainfall estimates and raingauge data. Sampling uncertainty associated to the derivation of the thresholds is assessed by using a bootstrap technique (Peruccacci et al. 2012). Results show that radar-based rainfall thresholds are largely exceeding those obtained by using raingauge data. Moreover, the differences between the two thresholds may be related to the spatial characteristics (i.e., spatial

  10. Contribution of Monthly and Regional Rainfall to the Strength of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Zheng, Y.; Ali, M.; Bourassa, M. A.


    Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR: June-September) has both temporal and spatial variability causing floods/droughts in different seasons/locations leading to a strong or weak monsoon. Here, we present the contribution of all-India monthly, seasonal and regional rainfall to the ISMR, with special reference to the strong and weak monsoons. For this purpose, rainfall data provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD: for 1901-2013 have been used. The IMD divided the Indian sub-continent into four homogeneous regions of northwest India (NWI), northeast India (NEI), central India (CI), and south peninsula India (SPIN). Rainfall during July-August contributes the most to the total seasonal rainfall, whether it is a strong or weak monsoon. Although the NEI has the maximum area-weighted rainfall, its contribution is the least toward a strong or weak monsoon. The rainfall in the remaining three regions (NWI, CI, and SPIN) controls whether an ISMR is strong or weak. Compared to the monthly rainfall, the regional rainfall dominates the strong or weak rainfall periods.

  11. Measuring rainfall with low-cost cameras

    Allamano, Paola; Cavagnero, Paolo; Croci, Alberto; Laio, Francesco


    In Allamano et al. (2015), we propose to retrieve quantitative measures of rainfall intensity by relying on the acquisition and analysis of images captured from professional cameras (SmartRAIN technique in the following). SmartRAIN is based on the fundamentals of camera optics and exploits the intensity changes due to drop passages in a picture. The main steps of the method include: i) drop detection, ii) blur effect removal, iii) estimation of drop velocities, iv) drop positioning in the control volume, and v) rain rate estimation. The method has been applied to real rain events with errors of the order of ±20%. This work aims to bridge the gap between the need of acquiring images via professional cameras and the possibility of exporting the technique to low-cost webcams. We apply the image processing algorithm to frames registered with low-cost cameras both in the lab (i.e., controlled rain intensity) and field conditions. The resulting images are characterized by lower resolutions and significant distortions with respect to professional camera pictures, and are acquired with fixed aperture and a rolling shutter. All these hardware limitations indeed exert relevant effects on the readability of the resulting images, and may affect the quality of the rainfall estimate. We demonstrate that a proper knowledge of the image acquisition hardware allows one to fully explain the artefacts and distortions due to the hardware. We demonstrate that, by correcting these effects before applying the image processing algorithm, quantitative rain intensity measures are obtainable with a good accuracy also with low-cost modules.

  12. Critical rainfall thresholds for triggering shallow landslides in the Serchio River Valley (Tuscany, Italy

    R. Giannecchini


    Full Text Available The Serchio River Valley, in north-western Tuscany, is a well-known tourism area between the Apuan Alps and the Apennines. This area is frequently hit by heavy rainfall, which often triggers shallow landslides, debris flows and debris torrents, sometimes causing damage and death. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds for the initiation of shallow landslides is very important in order to improve forecasting and to arrange efficient alarm systems.

    With the aim of defining the critical rainfall thresholds for the Middle Serchio River Valley, a detailed analysis of the main rainstorm events was carried out. The hourly rainfall recorded by three rain gauges in the 1935–2010 interval was analysed and compared with the occurrence of shallow landslides. The rainfall thresholds were defined in terms of mean intensity I, rainfall duration D, and normalized using the mean annual precipitation. Some attempts were also carried out to analyze the role of rainfall prior to the damaging events. Finally, the rainfall threshold curves obtained for the study area were compared with the local, regional and global curves proposed by various authors. The results of this analysis suggest that in the study area landslide activity initiation requires a higher amount of rainfall and greater intensity than elsewhere.

  13. Rainfall variability modelling in Rwanda

    Nduwayezu, E.; Kanevski, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.


    Support to climate change adaptation is a priority in many International Organisations meetings. But is the international approach for adaptation appropriate with field reality in developing countries? In Rwanda, the main problems will be heavy rain and/or long dry season. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). The spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front » mechanism. The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda disturbs the circulation for many days, damages the houses and, more seriously, causes heavy losses of people. All districts are affected by bad weather (heavy rain) but the costs of such events are the highest in mountains districts. The objective of the current research is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events.

  14. On the sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic modelling to rainfall spatial and temporal resolution

    Bruni, G.; Reinoso Rondinel, R.R.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.


    Cities are increasingly vulnerable to floods generated by intense rainfall, because of their high degree of imperviousness, implementation of infrastructures, and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change. Accurate information of convective storm characteristics at high spatial and tem

  15. Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

    Nana Zhao


    Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

  16. Impacts of rainfall features and antecedent soil moisture on occurrence of preferential flow: A study at hillslopes using high-frequency monitoring

    Peng, Zhenyang; Tian, Fuqiang; Hu, Hongchang


    In order to evaluate influences of rainfall features and antecedent soil moisture on occurrence of preferential flow, a more than 2 years observation was conducted at 12 sites within a 7-km2 catchment, by applying the high-frequency monitoring approach. Totally 65 rainfall events were selected to compare among sites, and preferential flow was inferred when (i) responses of soil moisture did not follow a linear sequence with depth, and (ii) penetration velocity of wetting front in at least one horizon exceeded the threshold, which was set to be 5-10 times of the saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil matrix at different depths. Results showed that frequency of preferential flow was 40.7% in average, but varied from 17.9% to 74.3% among the sites. Correlations between the frequency and rainfall features, i.e. rainfall amount, duration, maximum and average intensity, were well fitted by logarithmic curves. Rainfall amount, which was most prominently correlated with frequency (R2=0.93), was regarded as the dominant driving factor of preferential flow, while average intensity was in second (R2=0.90). Antecedent soil moisture was also significantly correlated with the frequency. However, this should largely be attributed to the differences of soil moisture among sites, since varying range of soil moisture at a specific site was not wide enough to influence the frequency significantly. Further examination suggested that topography and surface cover (dead leaves and humus) were the controlling factors of both infiltration amount and occurrence of preferential flow, as water was more readily to infiltrate into soils and preferential flow was more readily to occur when slope gradient was small and surface cover was thick, while soil moisture was more likely to be a consequence of water storage capacity, rather than an inducer of preferential flow. This knowledge could be helpful in understanding the partitioning of surface runoff and infiltration, as well as runoff

  17. Benefits and limitations of using the weather radar for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris flows. Case study from Catalonia (Spain).

    Abancó, C.; Hürlimann, M.; Sempere, D.; Berenguer, M.


    Torrential processes such as debris flows or hyperconcentrated flows are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They occur in steep torrents and suppose a high risk for the human settlements. Rainfall is the most common triggering factor for debris flows. The rainfall threshold defines the rainfall conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to provoke one or more events. Many different types of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering have been defined. Direct measurements of rainfall data are normally not available from a point next to or in the surroundings of the initiation area of the landslide. For this reason, most of the thresholds published for debris flows have been established by data measured at the nearest rain gauges (often located several km far from the landslide). Only in very few cases, the rainfall data to analyse the triggering conditions of the debris flows have been obtained by weather (Doppler) radar. Radar devices present certain limitations in mountainous regions due to undesired reboots, but their main advantage is that radar data can be obtained for any point of the territory. The objective of this work was to test the use of the weather radar data for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris-flow triggering. Thus, rainfall data obtained from 3 to 5 rain gauges and from radar were compared for a dataset of events occurred in Catalonia (Spain). The goal was to determine in which cases the description of the rainfall episode (in particular the maximum intensity) had been more accurate. The analysed dataset consists of: 1) three events occurred in the Rebaixader debris-flow monitoring station (Axial Pyrenees) including two hyperconcentrated flows and one debris flow; 2) one debris-flow event occurred in the Port Ainé ski resort (Axial Pyrenees); 3) one debris-flow event in Montserrat (Mediterranean Coastal range). The comparison of the hyetographs from the

  18. Calibration of three rainfall simulators with automatic measurement methods

    Roldan, Margarita


    CALIBRATION OF THREE RAINFALL SIMULATORS WITH AUTOMATIC MEASUREMENT METHODS M. Roldán (1), I. Martín (2), F. Martín (2), S. de Alba(3), M. Alcázar(3), F.I. Cermeño(3) 1 Grupo de Investigación Ecología y Gestión Forestal Sostenible. ECOGESFOR-Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. E.U.I.T. Forestal. Avda. Ramiro de Maeztu s/n. Ciudad Universitaria. 28040 Madrid. 2 E.U.I.T. Forestal. Avda. Ramiro de Maeztu s/n. Ciudad Universitaria. 28040 Madrid. 3 Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Ciudad Universitaria s/n. 28040 Madrid The rainfall erosivity is the potential ability of rain to cause erosion. It is function of the physical characteristics of rainfall (Hudson, 1971). Most expressions describing erosivity are related to kinetic energy or momentum and so with drop mass or size and fall velocity. Therefore, research on factors determining erosivity leds to the necessity to study the relation between fall height and fall velocity for different drop sizes, generated in a rainfall simulator (Epema G.F.and Riezebos H.Th, 1983) Rainfall simulators are one of the most used tools for erosion studies and are used to determine fall velocity and drop size. Rainfall simulators allow repeated and multiple measurements The main reason for use of rainfall simulation as a research tool is to reproduce in a controlled way the behaviour expected in the natural environment. But in many occasions when simulated rain is used in order to compare it with natural rain, there is a lack of correspondence between natural and simulated rain and this can introduce some doubt about validity of data because the characteristics of natural rain are not adequately represented in rainfall simulation research (Dunkerley D., 2008). Many times the rainfall simulations have high rain rates and they do not resemble natural rain events and these measures are not comparables. And besides the intensity is related to the kinetic energy which

  19. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    Moody, John A.


    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  20. Developing a warning system in Ambon city, Indonesia: Rainfall threshold for sediment related disasters

    Hasnawir, H.; Kubota, T.; Sanchez Castillo, L. R. M.


    Ambon city of Indonesia is extremely vulnerable to climatic hazards and the frequency of sediment related disasters appears to increase. During 2012 to 2013, more than one hundred of sediment related disasters including landslides occurred especially in the settlement area. The damage was particularly severe in the city and at several sites along the transportation network. The sediment related disasters resulted of hundreds houses destroyed, including 43 deaths, numerous injured people and hundreds people evacuated. Rainfall threshold method is an approach for develop a warning system for sediment related disasters occurence. Two types of rainfall thresholds can be established (Aleotti, 2004): (1) empirical thresholds, based on historic analysis of relationship rainfall/landslide (sediment related disaster) occurrence, and (2) physical thresholds, based on numeric models that take into account the relationship between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability by coupling hydrologic and stability models. Empirical thresholds were used in this study. Empirical threshold has been considered as collecting rainfall data for sediment related disaster events from 2007 to 2013. The results show that the sediment related disasters occurred in short periods (2 hours) with a high average intensity and longer periods (48 hours) with a lower average intensity. We determined new rainfall thresholds for possible sediment related disaster occurrence with the regression value of I = 83.88D-0.80 (I is rainfall intensity, mm/hr and D is duration, hr). It is expected that the new rainfall thresholds could be used for the development of a warning system in Ambon city.

  1. A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms

    S. Salsón


    Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models require fine resolution rainfall inputs, enhancing the practical interest of space-time rainfall models, capable of generating through numerical simulation realistic space-time rainfall intensity fields. Among different mathematical approaches, those based on point processes and built upon a convenient analytical description of the raincell as the fundamental unit, have shown to be particularly suitable and well adapted when extreme rainfall events of convective nature are considered. Starting from previous formulations, some analytical refinements have been considered, allowing practical generation of space-time rainfall intensity fields for that type of rainstorm events. Special attention is placed on the analytical description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall intensities produced by the raincells. After deriving the necessary analytical results, the seven parameters of the model have been estimated by the method of moments, for each of the 30 selected rainfall events in the Jucar River Basin (ValenciaSpain – period 1991 to 2000, using 5-min aggregated rainfall data series from an automatic raingauge network.

  2. Impact of rainfall temporal resolution on urban water quality modelling performance and uncertainties.

    Manz, Bastian Johann; Rodríguez, Juan Pablo; Maksimović, Cedo; McIntyre, Neil


    A key control on the response of an urban drainage model is how well the observed rainfall records represent the real rainfall variability. Particularly in urban catchments with fast response flow regimes, the selection of temporal resolution in rainfall data collection is critical. Furthermore, the impact of the rainfall variability on the model response is amplified for water quality estimates, as uncertainty in rainfall intensity affects both the rainfall-runoff and pollutant wash-off sub-models, thus compounding uncertainties. A modelling study was designed to investigate the impact of altering rainfall temporal resolution on the magnitude and behaviour of uncertainties associated with the hydrological modelling compared with water quality modelling. The case study was an 85-ha combined sewer sub-catchment in Bogotá (Colombia). Water quality estimates showed greater sensitivity to the inter-event variability in rainfall hyetograph characteristics than to changes in the rainfall input temporal resolution. Overall, uncertainties from the water quality model were two- to five-fold those of the hydrological model. However, owing to the intrinsic scarcity of observations in urban water quality modelling, total model output uncertainties, especially from the water quality model, were too large to make recommendations for particular model structures or parameter values with respect to rainfall temporal resolution.

  3. Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006

    S. Beguería


    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO.

  4. Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area

    N. Rebora


    Full Text Available The prediction of the small-scale spatial-temporal pattern of intense rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment in small catchments and urban areas. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. In this work we present an application of a new spatial-temporal downscaling procedure, called RainFARM, to an intense precipitation event predicted by the limited-area meteorological model Lokal Model over north-west Italy. The uncertainty in flood prediction associated with the small unresolved scales of forecasted precipitation fields is evaluated by using an ensemble of downscaled fields to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model.

  5. Long-term variation of rainfall erosivity in Calabria (Southern Italy)

    Capra, A.; Porto, P.; La Spada, C.


    The changes in rainfall erosivity have been investigated using the rainfall erosivity factor ( R) proposed for USLE by Wischmeier and Smith ( R W-S ) and some simplified indexes (the Fournier index modified by Arnoldus, F, a regional index spatial independent, R Fr , and a regional index spatial dependent, R Fs ) estimated by indirect approaches. The analysis has been carried out over 48 rainfall stations located in Calabria (Southern Italy) using data collected in the period 1936-2012 and divided in three sub-periods. The series of the erosivity indexes and of some precipitation variables have been analyzed for evidence of trends using standard methods. The simplified indexes suggested a general underestimation of the rainfall erosivity with respect to R W-S . The mean underestimation ranged between 23 and 54 % for R Fr and from 10 to 15 % for R Fs . Both the sign and the magnitude of the trends were different for the different stations depending on the variable and sub-period considered. In general, the erosivity increased during the period 1936-1955 (1st sub-period) and during the more recent sub-period (1992-2012, 3rd sub-period), whereas it decreased during 1958-1977 (2nd sub-period). The evidence of trends was generally higher for R W-S than for R Fr and R Fs . Focusing on the most recent sub-period (3rd sub-period), all the variables analyzed showed mainly increasing trends but with different magnitude. More particularly, R W-S showed a mean increment of 29 %; F, R Fr and R Fs increased by 11, 15 and 18 %, respectively; the maximum intensity of 0.5-h precipitation increased by 5 %; and the annual precipitation increased by 22 %. Consequently, it remains difficult to define which precipitation variable plays the dominant role in the temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in the region. However, the overall results suggest that the indexes estimated by indirect procedures ( F, R Fr , and R Fs ) should be used with caution for climate change analysis, despite

  6. Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall

    Goodess, C. M.; Jones, P. D.


    Investigation of the links between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall is important for the understanding of climatic variability and for the development of empirical circulation-based downscaling methods. Here, spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the Iberian Peninsula during the period 1958-97 are explored using an automated circulation classification scheme and daily rainfall totals for 18 stations. Links between the circulation classification scheme and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) are also considered, as are the direct links between rainfall and the NAO. Trends in rainfall and circulation-type frequency are explored. A general tendency towards decreasing mean seasonal rainfall over the peninsula, with the exception of the southeastern Mediterranean coast, hides larger changes in wet day amount and rainfall probability. There is a tendency towards more, less-intensive rain days across much of Iberia, with a tendency towards more, more-intensive rain days along the southeastern Mediterranean coast, both of which are reflected in changes in rainfall amount quantiles. A preliminary analysis indicates that these changes may have occurred systematically across all circulation types. Comparison of the trends in rainfall and in circulation-type frequency suggests possible links. These links are supported by linear regression analyses using circulation-type frequencies as predictor variables and rainfall totals for winter months as the predictands. The selected predictor variables reflect the main circulation features influencing winter rainfall across the peninsula, i.e. the strong influence of Atlantic westerly and southwesterly airmasses over much of the peninsula, of northerly and northwesterly surface flow over northern/northwestern Spain and northern Portugal and the stronger effect of Mediterranean rather than Atlantic influences in southeastern Spain. The observed rainfall changes cannot, however, be

  7. Improvements of Satellite-Derived Cyclonic Rainfall over the North Atlantic.

    Klepp, Christian-Philipp; Bakan, Stephan; Graßl, Hartmut


    Case studies of rainfall, derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) satellite data during the passage of individual cyclones over the North Atlantic, are presented to enhance the knowledge of rainfall processes associated with frontal systems. A multisatellite method is applied for complete coverage of the North Atlantic twice a day. Different SSM/I precipitation algorithms have been tested for individual cyclones and compared to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) datasets. An independent rainfall pattern and intensity validation method is presented using voluntary observing ship (VOS) datasets and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images.Intense cyclones occur frequently in the wintertime period, with cold fronts propagating far south over the North Atlantic. Following upstream, large cloud clusters are frequently embedded in the cellular structured cold air of the backside regions, which produce heavy convective rainfall events, especially in the region off Newfoundland around 50°N. These storms can be easily identified on AVHRR images. It transpired that only the SSM/I rainfall algorithm of Bauer and Schlüssel is sensitive enough to detect the rainfall patterns and intensities observed by VOS for those cyclone types over the North Atlantic. In contrast, the GPCP products do not recognize this backside rainfall, whereas the frontal rainfall conditions are well represented in all tested datasets. This is suggested from the results of an intensive intercomparison study with ship reports from the time period of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX) field campaign. For this purpose, a new technique has been developed to transfer ship report codes into rain-rate estimates. From the analysis of a complete life cycle of a cyclone, it follows that these mesoscale backside rainfall events contribute up to 25% to the total amount of rainfall in North Atlantic cyclones.

  8. Research on the Fine-Scale Spatial Uniformity of Natural Rainfall and Rainfall from a Rainfall Simulator with a Rotary Platform (RSRP)

    Bo Liu; Xiaolei Wang; Lihua Shi; Xichuan Liu; Zhaojing Kang; Zhentao Chen


    ... and the rainfall uniformity was evaluated using the Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient (CU). Simultaneously, factors influencing the spatial uniformity of natural rainfall, including the average rainfall accumulation (RA...

  9. Evolution of the rainfall regime in the United Arab Emirates

    Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Charron, C.; Niranjan Kumar, K.; Marpu, P. R.; Ghedira, H.; Molini, A.; Khayal, I.


    Arid and semiarid climates occupy more than 1/4 of the land surface of our planet, and are characterized by a strongly intermittent hydrologic regime, posing a major threat to the development of these regions. Despite this fact, a limited number of studies have focused on the climatic dynamics of precipitation in desert environments, assuming the rainfall input - and their temporal trends - as marginal compared with the evaporative component. Rainfall series at four meteorological stations in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were analyzed for assessment of trends and detection of change points. The considered variables were total annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall; annual, seasonal and monthly maximum rainfall; and the number of rainy days per year, season and month. For the assessment of the significance of trends, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s test were applied. Results show that most annual series present decreasing trends, although not statistically significant at the 5% level. The analysis of monthly time series reveals strong decreasing trends mainly occurring in February and March. Many trends for these months are statistically significant at the 10% level and some trends are significant at the 5% level. These two months account for most of the total annual rainfall in the UAE. To investigate the presence of sudden changes in rainfall time-series, the cumulative sum method and a Bayesian multiple change point detection procedure were applied to annual rainfall series. Results indicate that a change point happened around 1999 at all stations. Analyses were performed to evaluate the evolution of characteristics before and after 1999. Student’s t-test and Levene’s test were applied to determine if a change in the mean and/or in the variance occurred at the change point. Results show that a decreasing shift in the mean has occurred in the total annual rainfall and the number of rainy days at all four stations, and that the variance has

  10. Modelling Ecuador's rainfall distribution according to geographical characteristics.

    Tobar, Vladimiro; Wyseure, Guido


    It is known that rainfall is affected by terrain characteristics and some studies had focussed on its distribution over complex terrain. Ecuador's temporal and spatial rainfall distribution is affected by its location on the ITCZ, the marine currents in the Pacific, the Amazon rainforest, and the Andes mountain range. Although all these factors are important, we think that the latter one may hold a key for modelling spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The study considered 30 years of monthly data from 319 rainfall stations having at least 10 years of data available. The relatively low density of stations and their location in accessible sites near to main roads or rivers, leave large and important areas ungauged, making it not appropriate to rely on traditional interpolation techniques to estimate regional rainfall for water balance. The aim of this research was to come up with a useful model for seasonal rainfall distribution in Ecuador based on geographical characteristics to allow its spatial generalization. The target for modelling was the seasonal rainfall, characterized by nine percentiles for each one of the 12 months of the year that results in 108 response variables, later on reduced to four principal components comprising 94% of the total variability. Predictor variables for the model were: geographic coordinates, elevation, main wind effects from the Amazon and Coast, Valley and Hill indexes, and average and maximum elevation above the selected rainfall station to the east and to the west, for each one of 18 directions (50-135°, by 5°) adding up to 79 predictors. A multiple linear regression model by the Elastic-net algorithm with cross-validation was applied for each one of the PC as response to select the most important ones from the 79 predictor variables. The Elastic-net algorithm deals well with collinearity problems, while allowing variable selection in a blended approach between the Ridge and Lasso regression. The model fitting

  11. Impact of MJO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent in the austral summer

    Oh, Ji-Hyun; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Lim, Gyu-Ho [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    This paper investigates the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the austral summer. For this purpose, cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the tropical rainfall measuring mission rain rate and the Japanese Reanalysis-25 data for the period 1998-2008. The real-time multivariate MJO index by Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132:1917-1932, 2004) is adopted to define the intensity and the phase of MJO. It is demonstrated that the hourly maximum rain rate over the domain tends to increase when convectively active phase of MJO approaches the Maritime Continent. In contrast, the hourly maximum rain rate tends to decrease when convectively suppressed phase of MJO resides over the region. The changes in the rain rate due to MJO differ over the ocean and the land. This difference is the greatest when the MJO is in the mature stage. Throughout the day during this stage, terrestrial rain rates show minimum values while diurnally varying oceanic rain rates record maximum values. Thus, precipitation becomes more intense in the morning over the Java Sea and is weakened in the evening over Borneo and Sumatra during the mature stage of MJO. During the decaying stage of MJO over the Maritime Continent, the diurnal cycle of precipitation weakens significantly over the ocean but only weakly over land. Analyses suggest that the anomalous lower level winds accompanied by MJO interact with the monsoonal flow over the Maritime Continent. Westerlies induced by MJO convection in the mature stage are superimposed on the monsoonal westerlies over the equator and increase wind speed mainly over the Java Sea due to the blocking effect of orography. Mountainous islands induce flow bifurcation, causing near-surface winds to converge mainly over the oceanic channels between two islands. As a result, heat flux release from the ocean to the atmosphere is enhanced by the increased

  12. From runoff to rainfall: inverse rainfall–runoff modelling in a high temporal resolution

    M. Herrnegger


    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel technique to calculate mean areal rainfall in a high temporal resolution of 60 min on the basis of an inverse conceptual rainfall–runoff model and runoff observations. Rainfall exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability, especially in complex alpine terrain. Additionally, the density of the monitoring network in mountainous regions is low and measurements are subjected to major errors, which lead to significant uncertainties in areal rainfall estimates. The most reliable hydrological information available refers to runoff, which in the presented work is used as input for a rainfall–runoff model. Thereby a conceptual, HBV-type model is embedded in an iteration algorithm. For every time step a rainfall value is determined, which results in a simulated runoff value that corresponds to the observation. To verify the existence, uniqueness and stability of the inverse rainfall, numerical experiments with synthetic hydrographs as inputs into the inverse model are carried out successfully. The application of the inverse model with runoff observations as driving input is performed for the Krems catchment (38.4 km2, situated in the northern Austrian Alpine foothills. Compared to station observations in the proximity of the catchment, the inverse rainfall sums and time series have a similar goodness of fit, as the independent INCA rainfall analysis of Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG. Compared to observations, the inverse rainfall estimates show larger rainfall intensities. Numerical experiments show, that cold state conditions in the inverse model do not influence the inverse rainfall estimates, when considering an adequate spin-up time. The application of the inverse model is a feasible approach to obtain improved estimates of mean areal rainfall. These can be used to enhance interpolated rainfall fields, e.g. for the estimation of rainfall correction factors, the parameterisation of

  13. Statistical framework to simulate daily rainfall series conditional on upper-air predictor variables

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios


    We propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall time series at daily resolution, conditional on predictor variables indicative of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. We do so by first introducing a dimensionless measure to assess the relative influence of upper-air variables at different pressure levels on ground-level rainfall statistics, and then simulating rainfall occurrence and amount by proper conditioning on the selected atmospheric predictors. The proposed scheme for conditional rainfall simulation operates at a daily time step (avoiding discrete approaches for identification of weather states), can incorporate any possible number and combination of predictor variables, while it is capable of reproducing rainfall seasonality directly from the variation of upper-air variables, without any type of seasonal analysis or modeling. The suggested downscaling approach is tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece. The model is found to accurately reproduce several statistics of actual rainfall time series, at both annual and seasonal levels, including wet day fractions, the alternation of wet and dry intervals, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of rainfall intensities in wet days, short-range dependencies present in historical rainfall records, the distribution of yearly rainfall maxima, dependencies of rainfall statistics on the observation scale, and long-term climatic features present in historical rainfall records. The suggested approach is expected to serve as a useful tool for stochastic rainfall simulation conditional on climate model outputs at a regional level, where climate change impacts and risks are assessed.

  14. Recent Trends in the Regime of Extreme Rainfall in the West African Sahel

    Lebel, T.; Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Quantin, G.


    West Africa is known for having experienced an extreme drought starting at the end of the 1960s that is recognized to be the greatest climatic signal at regional scale since the beginning of meteorological measurements. Despite a moderate recovery of the annual precipitations since the 1990s in the Central and Eastern Sahel, rainfall over the last two decades remains lower by 15% than during the period 1950-1970. Paradoxically these persisting dry conditions have been accompanied by a dramatic increase of flood fatalities especially over the recent 10 years. Using a homogeneous dataset of 41 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950-2010, an integrated regional approach based on the statistical extreme value theory was then used to reduce the local sampling effects and to provide robust estimates of intense rainfall distributions to be analyzed in conjunction with the annual rainfall series. This led to identify some key rainfall regime characteristics related to the decadal scale rainfall variability over the region. The main factor of the rainfall deficit during the great 1970-2000 drought was a lower occurrence of rainy days, extreme rainy days being the most affected. Over the last ten years, the Sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a lasting deficit of the number of rainy days, while at the same time the extreme rainfall occurrence is on the rise. As a consequence the proportion of annual rainfall associated with extreme rainfall has increased from 17% in the 1970-1990 years to 19% in the 1991-2000 years and to 22% in the 2001-2010 years. This tends to support the idea that a more extreme climate has been observed over the last 10 years, with a persisting deficit of the occurrence of rainfall associated with an increase of the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall. Our results also suggest that the intensification of the precipitation regime has likely contributed to the aggravation of the hydrological risks in the Sahel.

  15. Comparison of different types of medium scale field rainfall simulators

    Dostál, Tomáš; Strauss, Peter; Schindewolf, Marcus; Kavka, Petr; Schmidt, Jürgen; Bauer, Miroslav; Neumann, Martin; Kaiser, Andreas; Iserloh, Thomas


    Rainfall simulators are used in numerous experiments to study runoff and soil erosion characteristics. However, they usually differ in their construction details, rainfall generation, plot size and other technical parameters. As field experiments using medium to large scale rainfall simulators (plot length 3 - 8 m) are very much time and labor consuming, close cooperation of individual teams and comparability of results is highly desirable to enlarge the database of results. Two experimental campaigns were organized to compare three field rainfall simulators of similar scale (plot size), but with different technical parameters. The results were then compared, to identify parameters that are crucial for soil loss and surface runoff formation and test if results from individual devices can be reliably compared. The rainfall simulators compared were: field rainfall simulator of CTU Prague (the Czech Republic) (Kavka et al., 2012; EGU2015-11025), field simulator of BAW (Austria) (Strauss et al., 2002) and field simulator of TU Bergakademie Freiberg (Germany) (Schindewolf & Schmidt 2012). The device of CTU Prague is usually applied to a plot size of 9,5 x 2 m employing 4 nozzles SS Full Jet 40WSQ mounted on folding arm, working pressure is 0.8 bar, height of nozzles is 2.65 m. The intensity of rainfall is regulated electronically, which leaves the nozzle opened only for certain time. The rainfall simulator of BAW is constructed as a modular system, which is usually applied for a length of 5 m (area 2 x 5 m), using 6 nozzles SS Full Jet 40WSQ. Usual working pressure is 0.25 bar. Elevation of nozzles is 2.6 m. The intensity of rainfall is regulated electronically, which leaves the nozzle opened only for certain time. The device of TU Bergakademie Freiberg is also standard modular system, working usually with a plot size of 3 x 1 m, using 3 oscillating VeeJet 80/100 nozzles with an usual operating pressure of 0.5 bar. Intensity is regulated by the frequency of sweeps above

  16. Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan

    J. C. Chen


    Full Text Available This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N was also investigated via image analysis and/or field investigation. The relationship between N and RI was analysed. Higher RI of a rainfall event would trigger a larger number of debris flows. This paper also discusses the effects of the Chi-Chi earthquake (CCE on this relationship and on debris flow initiation. The results showed that the critical RI for debris flow initiation had significant variations and was significantly lower in the years immediately following the CCE of 1999, but appeared to revert to the pre-earthquake condition about five years later. Under the same extreme rainfall event of RI = 365 cm2 h−1, the value of N in the CCE-affected period could be six times larger than that in the non-CCE-affected periods.

  17. Stochastic generation of daily rainfall events based on rainfall pattern classification and Copula-based rainfall characteristics simulation

    Xu, Y. P.; Gao, C.


    To deal with the problem of having no or insufficiently long rainfall record, developing a stochastic rainfall model is very essential. This study first proposed a stochastic model of daily rainfall events based on classification and simulation of different rainfall patterns, and copula-based joint simulation of rainfall characteristics. Compared with current stochastic rainfall models, this new model not only keeps the dependence structure of rainfall characteristics by using copula functions, but also takes various rainfall patterns that may cause different hydrological responses to watershed into consideration. In order to determine the appropriate number of representative rainfall patterns in an objective way, we also introduced clustering validation measures to the stochastic model. Afterwards, the developed stochastic rainfall model is applied to 39 gauged meteorological stations in Zhejiang province, East China, and is then extended to ungauged stations for validation by applying the self-organizing map (SOM) method. The final results show that the 39 stations can be classified into seven regions that further fall into three categories based on rainfall generation mechanisms, i.e., plum-rain control region, typhoon-rain control region and typhoon-plum-rain compatible region. Rainfall patterns of each station can be classified into five or six types based on clustering validation measures. This study shows that the stochastic rainfall model is robust and can be applied to both gauged and ungauged stations for generating long rainfall record.

  18. Applicability of open rainfall data to event-scale urban rainfall-runoff modelling

    Niemi, Tero J.; Warsta, Lassi; Taka, Maija; Hickman, Brandon; Pulkkinen, Seppo; Krebs, Gerald; Moisseev, Dmitri N.; Koivusalo, Harri; Kokkonen, Teemu


    Rainfall-runoff simulations in urban environments require meteorological input data with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The availability of precipitation data is constantly increasing due to the shift towards more open data sharing. However, the applicability of such data for urban runoff assessments is often unknown. Here, the feasibility of Finnish Meteorological Institute's open rain gauge and open weather radar data as input sources was studied by conducting Storm Water Management Model simulations at a very small (33.5 ha) urban catchment in Helsinki, Finland. In addition to the open data sources, data were also available from two research gauges, one of them located on-site, and from a research radar. The results confirmed the importance of local precipitation measurements for urban rainfall-runoff simulations, implying the suitability of open gauge data to be largely dictated by the gauge's distance from the catchment. Performance of open radar data with 5 min and 1 km2 resolution was acceptable in terms of runoff reproduction, albeit peak flows were constantly and flow volumes often underestimated. Gauge adjustment and advection interpolation were found to improve the quality of the radar data, and at least gauge adjustment should be performed when open radar data are used. Finally, utilizing dual-polarization capabilities of radars has a potential to improve rainfall estimates for high intensity storms although more research is still needed.

  19. 黄土高原北部水蚀风蚀交错带沟壑地形的降雨反应特性%Responsive Characteristics of Rainfall of Gully Landform in Wind-Water Erosion Crisscross Region on the Northern Loess Plateau

    黄金柏; 卢龙彬; 付强; 王斌; 温佳伟


    为揭示黄土高原水蚀风蚀交错带沟壑地形的降雨反应特性,选取该区具有典型水文及气象特征的六道沟流域作为研究区域,基于对所选沟道的沟顶及沟底2005-2009年雨季同期观测降雨数据(38次集中降雨事件)的分析,揭示沟壑地形对降雨反应的特性;通过对典型降雨—径流事件的分析,分别推求长历时低强度降雨以及短历时高强度降雨条件下降雨强度与产流的关系.结果表明:沟顶单次降雨事件的降雨量,3,5,10 min最大雨强及平均雨强均是沟底对应值的1.3倍以上;沟顶单次降雨事件降雨量的3,5,10min雨强各序列标准差均大于沟底对应序列的值;沟顶与沟底的降雨量序列,各时间间隔的最大、平均雨强序列均存在着较高的正相关性,相关系数在0.9以上;表层土壤在饱和及不饱和条件下,产流的必要条件分别是5 min平均降雨强度达到0.12,0.52 mm/min.%The objectives of this study were to explore the responsive characteristics of rainfall of gully landform in wind-water erosion crisscross region on the northern Loess Plateau.The Liudaogou catchment which had the representative hydrological and meteorological characteristics in the wind-water erosion crisscross region was chosen as the study location.Rainfall observation was carried out for the period from 2005 to 2009.The 38 rainfall events which occurred in rainy season were adopted for analysis.The relationships between rain intensity and runoff generation were estimated through analyzing the representative rainfallrunoff events for the long-duration and low-intensity rainfall events and the short-duration and high-intensity rainfall events,respectively.The results indicated that the rainfall amount of each rainfall event,the maximum rain intensity and mean rain intensity of 3,5,10 min of the gully-top were higher than 1.3 times of that of the gully-bottom.The root-mean-square deviation for each series such as

  20. The Influence of the East Asian Winter Monsoon on Indonesian Rainfall During the Past 60,000 Years

    Konecky, B. L.; Russell, J. M.; Vogel, H.; Bijaksana, S.; Huang, Y.


    The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) invigorates the oceanic-atmospheric circulation in the tropics, with far-reaching climate impacts that extend into the high latitudes. A growing number of deglacial proxy reconstructions from the Maritime Continent and its surrounding seas have revealed the importance of both high- and low-latitude climate processes to IPWP rainfall during the deglaciation and the Holocene. However, few records extend beyond the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), making it difficult to assess regional rainfall characteristics and monsoon interactions under the glacial/interglacial boundary conditions of the Pleistocene. Proxy reconstructions of the oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall (δ18O/δDprecip) have proven useful in understanding millennial to orbital scale changes in the climate of the Maritime Continent, but the tendency for δ18O/δDprecip in this region to reflect regional and/or remote climate processes has highlighted the need to reconstruct δ18O/δDprecip alongside independent proxies for continental rainfall amount. Here we present a reconstruction of δDprecip using leaf wax compounds preserved in the sediments of Lake Towuti, Central Sulawesi, from 60,000 years before present (kyr BP) to today. Our δDprecip reconstruction provides a precipitation isotopic counterpart to multi-proxy geochemical reconstructions of surface hydrology and vegetation characteristics from the same sediment cores, enabling for the first time an independent assessment of both continental rainfall intensity and δDprecip from this region on glacial/interglacial timescales. We find that orbital-scale variations in δDprecip and rainfall intensity are strongly tied to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), which is an important contributor to the band of convection over the Maritime Continent during austral summer. Unlike today, however, severely dry conditions in Central Sulawesi during the Last Glacial Maximum were accompanied by a strengthened

  1. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity factor for Switzerland

    A. Steel


    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity, considering rainfall amount and intensity, is an important parameter for soil erosion risk assessment under future land use and climate change. Despite its importance, rainfall erosivity is usually implemented in models with a low spatial and temporal resolution. The purpose of this study is to assess the temporal- and spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity (R-factor in Switzerland. Time series of 22 yr for rainfall (10 min resolution and temperature (1 h resolution data were analysed for 71 automatic gauging stations distributed throughout Switzerland. Multiple regression was used to interpolate the erosivity values of single stations and to generate a map for Switzerland. Latitude, longitude, average annual precipitation, biogeographic units (Jura, Midland, etc., aspect and elevation were used as covariates, of which average annual precipitation, elevation and the biographic unit (Western Alps were significant predictors. The mean value of long-term rainfall erosivity is 1323 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 with a range of lowest values of 124 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 at an elevated station in Grisons to highest values of 5611 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 in Ticino. All stations have highest erosivity values from July to August and lowest values in the winter month. Swiss-wide the month May to October show significantly increasing trends of erosivity (p<0.005. Only in February a significantly decreasing trend of rainfall erosivity is found (p<0.01. The increasing trends of erosivity in May, September and October when vegetation cover is susceptible are likely to enhance soil erosion risk for certain agricultural crops and alpine grasslands in Switzerland.

  2. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity factor for Switzerland

    K. Meusburger


    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity, considering rainfall amount and intensity, is an important parameter for soil erosion risk assessment under future land use and climate change. Despite its importance, rainfall erosivity is usually implemented in models with a low spatial and temporal resolution. The purpose of this study is to assess the temporal- and spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in form of the (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation R-factor for Switzerland. Time series of 22 yr for rainfall (10 min resolution and temperature (1 h resolution data were analysed for 71 automatic gauging stations distributed throughout Switzerland. Regression-kriging was used to interpolate the rainfall erosivity values of single stations and to generate a map for Switzerland. Latitude, longitude, average annual precipitation, biogeographic units (Jura, Midland, etc., aspect and elevation were used as covariates, of which average annual precipitation, elevation and the biographic unit (Western Central Alps were significant (p<0.01 predictors. The mean value of long-term rainfall erosivity is 1330 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 with a range of lowest values of 124 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 at an elevated station in Grisons to highest values of 5611 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 in Ticino. All stations have highest erosivity values from July to August and lowest values in the winter months. Swiss-wide the month May to October show significantly increasing trends of rainfall erosivity for the observed period (p<0.005. Only in February a significantly decreasing trend of rainfall erosivity is found (p<0.01. The increasing trends of rainfall erosivity in May, September and October when vegetation cover is scarce are likely to enhance soil erosion risk for certain agricultural crops and alpine grasslands in Switzerland.

  3. Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

    Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen


    rainfall datasets available over Africa on monthly, daily and sub-daily time scales as appropriate to quantify spatial and temporal differences between the datasets. We find regional wet and dry biases between datasets (using the ensemble mean as a reference) with generally larger biases in reanalysis products. Rainfall intensity is poorly represented in some datasets which demonstrates some datasets should not be used for rainfall intensity analyses. Using 10 CORDEX models we show in east Africa that the spread between observed datasets is often similar to the spread between models. We recommend that specific observational rainfall datasets datasets be used for specific investigations and also that where many datasets are applicable to an investigation, a probabilistic view be adopted for rainfall studies over Africa. Endris, H. S., P. Omondi, S. Jain, C. Lennard, B. Hewitson, L. Chang'a, J. L. Awange, A. Dosio, P. Ketiem, G. Nikulin, H-J. Panitz, M. Büchner, F. Stordal, and L. Tazalika (2013) Assessment of the Performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating East African Rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 8453-8475. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1 Gbobaniyi, E., A. Sarr, M. B. Sylla, I. Diallo, C. Lennard, A. Dosio, A. Dhie ?diou, A. Kamga, N. A. B. Klutse, B. Hewitson, and B. Lamptey (2013) Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.3834 Hernández-Díaz, L., R. Laprise, L. Sushama, A. Martynov, K. Winger, and B. Dugas (2013) Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Clim. Dyn. 40, 1415-1433. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1387-z Kalognomou, E., C. Lennard, M. Shongwe, I. Pinto, A. Favre, M. Kent, B. Hewitson, A. Dosio, G. Nikulin, H. Panitz, and M. Büchner (2013) A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over southern Africa. Journal of Climate, 26, 9477-9506. DOI:10

  4. Trends in rainfall erosivity (1955-2006) over the Ebro basin; Tendencias en la erosividad de la lluvia (1955-2006) en la cuenca del Ebro

    Angulo Martinez, M.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.; Begueria, S.


    Rainfall is one of the main factors affecting soil erosion. This effect is summarized in the concept or rainfall erosivity which involves the drop size distribution and kinetic energy of an event, its duration and intensity, and the runoff that generates. To calculate rainfall erosivity several indices can be applied. The most extensively used is the R factor of the Revised Universal soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To compute this index continuous rainfall data are needed. This kind of data is difficult to obtain with a good spatial and temporal coverage. In this work, daily rainfall records have been converted into daily rainfall erosivity data. For this objective, we used the Richardson et al. (1983) exponential relationship between rainfall volume and rainfall erosivity to create the Daily Rainfall Erosivity Model (DREM). (Author) 4 refs.

  5. Multivariate Analysis of Joint Probability of Different Rainfall Frequencies Based on Copulas

    Yang Wang


    Full Text Available The performance evaluation of a city’s flood control system is essentially based on accurate storm designs, where a particular challenge is the development of the joint distributions of dependent rainfall variables. When it comes to the research design for consecutive rainfall, the analytical investigation is only focused on the maximum of consecutive rainfalls, and it