WorldWideScience

Sample records for material world forecasting

  1. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  2. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly

  3. Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Jingjing

    2016-01-01

    Mass and radius are two of the most fundamental properties of an astronomical object. Increasingly, new planet discoveries are being announced with a measurement of one of these terms, but not both. This has led to a growing need to forecast the missing quantity using the other, especially when predicting the detectability of certain follow-up observations. We present a forecasting model built upon a probabilistic mass-radius relation conditioned on a sample of 316 objects with well-constrained masses and radii. Our publicly available code, Forecaster, accounts for measurement error, model uncertainty and the intrinsic dispersion observed in the calibration sample. By conditioning our model upon a sample spanning dwarf planets to late-type stars, Forecaster can predict the mass (or radius) from the radius (or mass) for objects covering nine orders-of-magnitude in mass. Classification is naturally performed by our model, which uses four classes we label as Terran worlds, Neptunian worlds, Jovian worlds and sta...

  4. Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David

    2017-01-01

    Mass and radius are two of the most fundamental properties of an astronomical object. Increasingly, new planet discoveries are being announced with a measurement of one of these quantities, but not both. This has led to a growing need to forecast the missing quantity using the other, especially when predicting the detectability of certain follow-up observations. We present an unbiased forecasting model built upon a probabilistic mass–radius relation conditioned on a sample of 316 well-constrained objects. Our publicly available code, Forecaster, accounts for observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties, and the intrinsic dispersions observed in the calibration sample. By conditioning our model on a sample spanning dwarf planets to late-type stars, Forecaster can predict the mass (or radius) from the radius (or mass) for objects covering nine orders of magnitude in mass. Classification is naturally performed by our model, which uses four classes we label as Terran worlds, Neptunian worlds, Jovian worlds, and stars. Our classification identifies dwarf planets as merely low-mass Terrans (like the Earth) and brown dwarfs as merely high-mass Jovians (like Jupiter). We detect a transition in the mass–radius relation at {2.0}-0.6+0.7 M⊕, which we associate with the divide between solid, Terran worlds and Neptunian worlds. This independent analysis adds further weight to the emerging consensus that rocky super-Earths represent a narrower region of parameter space than originally thought. Effectively, then, the Earth is the super-Earth we have been looking for.

  5. Forecasting method of fatigue life test data for metal materials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张怀亮; 邱显焱; 谭冠军

    2001-01-01

    GM(1, 1) model of grey system theory is used to forecast fatigue life test data for metal materials. The method can reduce test time and save test cost, and reliability indexes of metal materials can be obtained quickly. The results of an example show that grey system theory has a high precision for forecasting fatigue life test data for metal materials. A valuable method is put forward, which can effectively reduce the fatigue life test time for metal materials.

  6. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  7. Sustainability in a materials world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amey, E.B.; Lemons, J.F.; Berry, Darbi R.

    1996-01-01

    Many adverse impacts on the environment can be directly related to the materials dispersed to the environment during processing or use, or after use as refuse and waste. Some materials, such as toxic wastes, are a major concern because they create immediate problems with longer-term effects. Gases released by major manufacturing industries can contribute to long-term regional and global problems such as acid rain or increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The use of other materials, however, appears to be more benign or strictly localized in their impacts. If the current per capita level of material consumption in the United States was achieved worldwide, it would create major stresses on both resource adequacy and the environment. In fact, stresses have been created and will continue from this consumption style (developed countries) even if others don't achieve them. ?? 1996 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  8. Second World Materials Summit Suzhou Declaration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ Suzhou 2009 Declaration Clean energy and sustainability are global issues that require international collaboration.Materials play a critical role in addressing these challenges.The Second World Materials Summit in Suzhou provides an avenue to create international cooperation to address energy related materials solutions.Our priorities track the relevant sections of the Kyoto resolution.

  9. Study to forecast and determine characteristics of world satellite communications market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filep, R. T.; Schnapf, A.; Fordyce, S. W.

    1983-01-01

    The world commercial communications satellite market during the spring and summer of 1983 was examined and characteristics and forecasts of the market extending to the year 2000 were developed. Past, present and planned satellites were documented in relation to frequencies, procurement and launch dates, costs, transponders, and prime contractor. Characteristics of the market are outlined for the periods 1965 - 1985, 1986 - 1989, and 1990 - 2000. Market share forecasts, discussions of potential competitors in various world markets, and profiles of major communication satellite manufacturing and user countries are documented.

  10. Russia and the World: 2015. IMEMO Forecast1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    A Dynkin; V Baranovsky; I Kobrinskaya; G Machavariani; S Afontsev; Y Mirkin; A Kuznetsov; F Voytolovsky; V Shvydko; S Utkin; V Mikheev; S Lukonin; Y Kvashnin; B Frumkin; N Toganova; V Zhuravleva

    2014-01-01

    ... (the world's third largest, inferior only to those of the United States and Russia) is non-transparent. [...]the deep inter-dependence of the global economic system is the safety catch that makes Russia and the West...

  11. MODELLING THE WORLD EXCHANGE RATES:DYNAMICS, VOLATILITY AND FORECASTING

    OpenAIRE

    Nwaobi, Godwin

    2008-01-01

    Indeed, the specification of equilibrium in the world economy depends on the exchange rate regime and thus, the early contributions to the postwar literature on exchange rate economics are to a large extent concerened with the role of speculation in foreign exchange markets. However, the world has known several exchange rate systems beginning with the fixed-gold standard, the adjustable-peg system, adjustable-parity system and the flexible exchange rate system. Yet, in 1997, when foreign exch...

  12. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  13. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  14. Test of developing long-term forecasts of world energy impact on the earth's atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.

    2015-03-01

    It has been established that the historical approach to world energy forecasting can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes reaching a plateau of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century against the background of a continuing decrease in sulfur dioxide emission. From the historical point of view, the implementation of the most aggressive scenarios of human impact on the atmosphere and climate seems very unlikely.

  15. Experience of genetic forecasts for world energy: Can we foresee the distant future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.

    2014-10-01

    It has been established that the historical approach to forecasting world energy can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes the stabilization of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century. From the historical point of view, implementation of the most aggressive IPCC scenarios of human impact seems to be very unlikely.

  16. World Politics in Early 21st Century: Theoretical Forecasts and Contemporary Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Lantsov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article compares the forecasts concerning trends in world politics of the early 21st century created by Francis Fukuyama, Samuel Huntington and Immanuel Wallerstein. Though none of the forecasts was completely accurate, all of them spoke of the tendencies that could be later observed in world politics. Despite many experts criticized Fukuyama’s concept of the ‘end of history’, Western elites had been making foreign policies of their countries in accordance with the concept until recently.The article explains how such policies came to contradict contemporary state of affairs. In accordance with Huntington’s expectations, the role of civilizational factor in world politics of the early 21st century signifi cantly grew compared to previous periods. However, the character of civilizational factor’s infl uence on political processes appeared to be different compared to what Huntington expected. The article underlines the accuracy of Wallerstein’s forecast concerning the consequences of mass South-North migration. At the same time, the article concludes, his forecast, likewise the other two, also requires adaptation to contemporary situation in societal development.

  17. Analysis and forecast of electrical distribution system materials. Final report. Volume III. Appendix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Love, C G

    1976-08-23

    These appendixes are referenced in Volume II of this report. They contain the detailed electrical distribution equipment requirements and input material requirements forecasts. Forecasts are given for three electric energy usage scenarios. Also included are data on worldwide reserves and demand for 30 raw materials required for the manufacture of electrical distribution equipment.

  18. The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project: Overview and Current Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, T.; Joe, P.; Wilson, J.; Collier, C.; Golding, B.; Burgess, D.; May, P.; Pierce, C.; Bally, J.; Crook, A.; Seed, A.; Sills, D.; Berry, L.; Potts, R.; Bell, I.; Fox, N.; Ebert, E.; Eilts, M.;  O'Loughlin, K.;  Webb, R.;  Carbone, R.;  Browning, K.;  Roberts, R.;  Mueller, C.

    2003-08-01

    The first World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP), with a focus on nowcasting, was conducted in Sydney, Australia, from 4 September to 21 November 2000 during a period associated with the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games. Through international collaboration, nine nowcasting systems from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia were deployed at the Sydney Office of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) to demonstrate the capability of modern forecast systems and to quantify the associated benefits in the delivery of a real-time nowcast service. On-going verification and impact studies supported by international committees assisted by the WWRP formed an integral part of this project. A description is given of the project, including component systems, the weather, and initial outcomes. Initial results show that the nowcasting systems tested were transferable and able to provide valuable information enhancing BOM nowcasts. The project provided for unprecedented interchange of concepts and ideas between forecasters, researchers, and end users in an operational framework where they all faced common issues relevant to real time nowcast decision making. A training workshop sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was also held in conjunction with the project so that other member nations could benefit from the FDP.

  19. Pop Life, Art in a Material World.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clémence Bonnet

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available « I don’t think myself as evil – just realistic », Andy Warhol« Good business is the best art », légendaire citation d’Andy Warhol, résonne entre les murs de la Tate Modern, digne fil conducteur de l’exposition « Pop Life, Art in a Material World  ». Le Business Art et l’artiste intégrant le commercial à son travail (ne se contentant plus de seulement le commenter réunissent vingt-deux artistes autour de la figure centrale de Warhol, présenté comme le père fondateur de toute cette mouvance p...

  20. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  1. On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

    2012-05-01

    The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out

  2. A Study on the Determination of the World Crude Oil Price and Methods for Its Forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, J.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    The primary purpose of this report is to provide the groundwork to develop the methods to forecast the world crude oil price. The methodology is used by both literature survey and empirical study. For this purpose, first of all, this report reviewed the present situation and the outlook of the world oil market based on oil demand, supply and prices. This analysis attempted to provide a deeper understanding to support the development of oil forecasting methods. The result of this review, in general, showed that the oil demand will be maintained annually at an average rate of around 2.4% under assumption that oil supply has no problem until 2020. The review showed that crude oil price will be a 3% increasing rate annually in the 1999 real term. This report used the contents of the summary review as reference data in order to link the KEEIOF model. In an effort to further investigate the contents of oil political economy, this report reviewed the articles of political economy about oil industry. It pointed out that the world oil industry is experiencing the change of restructuring oil industry after the Gulf War in 1990. The contents of restructuring oil industry are characterized by the 'open access' to resources not only in the Persian Gulf, but elsewhere in the world as well - especially the Caspian Sea Basin. In addition, the contents showed that the oil industries are shifted from government control to government and industry cooperation after the Gulf War. In order to examine the characters and the problems surrounding oil producing countries, this report described the model of OPEC behavior and strategy of oil management with political and military factors. Among examining the models of OPEC behavior, this report focused on hybrid model to explain OPEC behavior. In reviewing political and religious power structure in the Middle East, the report revealed that US emphasizes the importance of the Middle East for guaranteeing oil security. However, three

  3. Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J

    2016-02-11

    Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world's tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

  4. International wind energy development. World market update 2009. Forecast 2010-2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-03-15

    This is the fifteenth edition of the annual World Market Update produced by BTM Consult ApS, and covers developments in the wind energy sector during 2009. As in previous editions, the report also assesses important changes over the last three years and forecasts progress for five years ahead. The special topic in this year's WMU is an evaluation of the aftermath of the COP-15 climate change negotiations in relation to future wind power development. The global market for wind power not only produced a record for new installations in 2009 of 38 GW installed capacity, it also created a new order in the balance of international wind power. The rapid increase in the rate of installations in both Asia and the US was already clear in 2008; that trend has continued at a faster pace in 2009. By far the largest number of new wind projects were seen in the US and China. Another new reality is that most of the world's manufacturing of wind turbines now takes place in China. As a result three Chinese companies are among the world's top ten turbine manufacturers. At the same time a rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity by European turbine makers has taken place in the US. Europe contributed 28.2% of the newly added capacity - 10,738 MW - taking the continent's total wind power generation capacity to 76,553 MW. The growth in Asia's markets has once again been staggering. With 14,991 MW of new installations, South and East Asia accounted for 39.4% of the global total in 2009. China was the major contributor, with 13,750 MW of new capacity, more than double that installed in 2008. In terms of cumulative installed wind power, the US is still the world leader, with 35,159 MW. China overtook Germany with a margin of less than 50 MW. China now has a total of 25,853 MW, followed by Germany's 25,813 MW. A new world order in wind power has become a reality. The forecast released in this WMU shows an average growth rate of 13.5% for the period 2010

  5. Getting to grips with election night forecasting: Predicting the unpredictable world of politics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Holloway, Jennifer P

    2009-04-23

    Full Text Available the forecasting. "Our scientific model works - we are confident that we'd be able to once again give an accurate forecast," comments Hans Ittmann, Executive Director of CSIR Built Environment...

  6. The cultural effects of job mobility and the belief in a fixed world: evidence from performance forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing; Chiu, Chi-yue; Chan, S Fiona

    2009-11-01

    Results from 5 studies illustrate how perception of and experiences with low job mobility can shape culture-characteristic pattern of judgments and behaviors. Although both Americans and some Asian groups (e.g., Chinese, Asian Americans) consider having successful practitioners' personality traits (role personalities) to be important to job performance, the Asian groups place heavier emphasis on possessing role personalities when making performance forecast than do Americans (Studies 1-3). Moreover, even among Americans, a brief subjective experience with low job mobility can increase the perceived importance of possessing role personalities in performance forecast (Study 4), and a brief direct experience with low job mobility can increase job applicants' tendency to claim possession of role personality traits in job applications (Study 5). Furthermore, the belief in a fixed world mediates the relationship between perception of low job mobility and perceived importance of possessing role personalities in performance forecast (Study 2).

  7. Does an inter-flaw length control the accuracy of rupture forecasting in geological materials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.; Lavallée, Yan; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2017-10-01

    Multi-scale failure of porous materials is an important phenomenon in nature and in material physics - from controlled laboratory tests to rockbursts, landslides, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. A key unsolved research question is how to accurately forecast the time of system-sized catastrophic failure, based on observations of precursory events such as acoustic emissions (AE) in laboratory samples, or, on a larger scale, small earthquakes. Until now, the length scale associated with precursory events has not been well quantified, resulting in forecasting tools that are often unreliable. Here we test the hypothesis that the accuracy of the forecast failure time depends on the inter-flaw distance in the starting material. We use new experimental datasets for the deformation of porous materials to infer the critical crack length at failure from a static damage mechanics model. The style of acceleration of AE rate prior to failure, and the accuracy of forecast failure time, both depend on whether the cracks can span the inter-flaw length or not. A smooth inverse power-law acceleration of AE rate to failure, and an accurate forecast, occurs when the cracks are sufficiently long to bridge pore spaces. When this is not the case, the predicted failure time is much less accurate and failure is preceded by an exponential AE rate trend. Finally, we provide a quantitative and pragmatic correction for the systematic error in the forecast failure time, valid for structurally isotropic porous materials, which could be tested against larger-scale natural failure events, with suitable scaling for the relevant inter-flaw distances.

  8. Materials aspects of world energy needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-01-01

    Plenary session papers presented by participants from both developed and developing countries contributed to the information base on materials and energy outlook, international cooperation, economic aspects, and environmental considerations and established the theme for the subsequent workshop sessions. Workshops on ten major aspects of materials-energy interrelationships provided the opportunity of open and informal discussion of critical issues in each area and the development of reasonable consensus on problems and potential solutions. A separate abstract for each of the 10 plenary-session papers, the 10 workshop reports, and the 4 selected papers will appear in Energy Research Abstracts (ERA) and Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis (EAPA). The brief issue summaries (preprints) will appear individually (total of 75) only in the DOE Energy Data Base.

  9. Development and Capacity Forecast of China Rubber Raw Materials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The "1 lth Five-Year Plan" period is the most glorious period in the history of China raw materials such as NR and SR. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the rubber raw materials will enter an important period of great development in technology, product and output.

  10. Topsy-turvy world of materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Marsh

    2003-01-01

    Among other strange consequences, the Doppler effect is reversed: a passing EM source would be characterized by falling then rising frequency rather than the other way around, while light from a source coming towards you would be reddened instead of blue-shifted. The Cerenkov effect is similarly reversed, with charged particles passing though a medium emitting light in a cone behind the particle rather than in front. Evanescent waves, with extremely short wavelengths that decay rapidly and never really escape the surface of a normal material, would actually grow in our topsy-turvy medium. In optics, therefore, these waves — less than the wavelength of light and carrying the finest details of an optical image — could be focused along with the normally propagating waves.

  11. Stochastic Analysis and Forecasts of the Patterns of Speed, Acceleration, and Levels of Material Stock Accumulation in Society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fishman, Tomer; Schandl, Heinz; Tanikawa, Hiroki

    2016-04-01

    The recent acceleration of urbanization and industrialization of many parts of the developing world, most notably in Asia, has resulted in a fast-increasing demand for and accumulation of construction materials in society. Despite the importance of physical stocks in society, the empirical assessment of total material stock of buildings and infrastructure and reasons for its growth have been underexplored in the sustainability literature. We propose an innovative approach for explaining material stock dynamics in society and create a country typology for stock accumulation trajectories using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology, a stochastic approach commonly used in business studies and economics to inspect and forecast time series. This enables us to create scenarios for future demand and accumulation of building materials in society, including uncertainty estimates. We find that the so-far overlooked aspect of acceleration trends of material stock accumulation holds the key to explaining material stock growth, and that despite tremendous variability in country characteristics, stock accumulation is limited to only four archetypal growth patterns. The ability of nations to change their pattern will be a determining factor for global sustainability.

  12. Quantum Organizational World-Making through Material Emobided Storytelling Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svane, Marita

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the social construction approach to strategy, organization, culture, management and learning has increasingly been criticized for ignoring the active role of the materiality of the social world (Barad 2007, Ingold 2012, Nicolini 2012, Taguchi 2009). Thus in the aftermath of the lin...

  13. Forecasting for materials with intermittent demand based on combined forecasting%基于组合预测的间断性需求器材预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许绍杰; 张衡; 聂涛; 王晗中

    2012-01-01

    为了提高间断性需求装备器材的预测精度,提出一种组合预测模型.该模型从解释变量序列和自相关序列两个方面进行组合预测,对解释变量序列采用Logistic回归模型预测提前期非零需求发生概率,对自相关序列采用Markov过程估计提前期非零需求发生概率,整合两个预测结果得到最终的提前期需求.实验结果表明,该预测模型具有较高的预测精度.%In order to enhance the forecasting accuracy of materials with intermittent demand, a combined forecasting model is proposed. This model disintegrates the time series into explanatory series and auto-correlated series. Then the probabilities of nonzero demands for the two series in lead time are estimated by Logistic regression model and Markov forecasting respectively. The final demand forecasting result is calculated through integrating the results of the two series. Experiment results show that the forecasting model can get high precision.

  14. HANDS-ON MATERIALS AS INVITATION TO A FANTASY WORLD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejersbo, Lisser Rye

    them practices for the learning and teaching of arithmetic and number systems. My project is to investigate the mathematical learning opportunities that the bears and their fantasy world open up for the students. Hand-on materials are often used to investigate and to do experiments to develop......In this article I wish to introduce an innovative use of hands-on-materials, developed by Peter Müller, a Danish elementary school teacher. The hands-on material itself consists of a collection of small plastic bears in different colors and sizes, which can be used for many different purposes among...... the cognitive part in mathematics. Here I describe, in the form of a case study, how the use of hands-on materials in first grade may also have an emotional influence through the narrative mode. My interest is in explicating the conditions that the bears' environment offers for the learning of arithmetic both...

  15. Forecast of Piezoelectric Properties of Crystalline Materials from First Principle Calculation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Piezo crystals including quartz, quartz-like crystals, known and novel crystals of langasite-type structure were treated with density-functional perturb theory (DFPT) using plane-wave pseudopotentials method, within the local density approximation (LDA) to the exchange-correlation functional. Compared with experimental results, the ab initio calculation results have quantitative or semi-quantitative accuracy. It is shown that first principle calculation opens a door to the search and design of new piezoelectric material. Further application of first principle calculation to forecast the whole piezoelectric properties was also discussed.

  16. Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Breivik, Øyvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...

  17. The world's nuclear future - built on material success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ion, Sue

    2010-07-01

    In our energy hungry world of the twenty-first century, the future of electricity generation must meet the twin challenges of security of supply and reduced carbon emissions. The expectations for nuclear power programmes to play a part in delivering success on both counts, grows ever higher. The nuclear industry is poised on a renaissance likely to dwarf the heady days of the 1960s and early 1970s. Global supply chain and project management challenges abound, now just as then. The science and engineering of materials will be key to the successful deployment and operation of a new generation of reactor systems and their associated fuel cycles. Understanding and predicting materials performance will be key to achieving life extension of existing assets and underpinning waste disposal options, as well as giving confidence to the designers, their financial backers and governments across the globe, that the next generation of reactors will deliver their full potential.

  18. Second World Materials Summit——Advanced Energy Materials and Sustainable Society Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAO Lijing

    2009-01-01

    @@ In the current term,new energy will lead the fourth industrial revolution,and development of new energy is conducive to the worlds sustainable economic development.The Second World Materials Summit was held in Suzhou on October 12-15,2009 in such a background.It achieved a successful outcome and made an important declaration:Suzhou Declaration.The theme for the summit was"advanced energy materials and sustainable development of the society".The summit was organized by the Chinese Materials Research Society,and co sponsored by the International Union of Materials Research Society,the European Materials Research Society,as well as the Materials Research Society.

  19. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  20. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R Oakleaf

    Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  1. International wind energy development. World market update 1996. Forecast 1997-2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    It is intended topublish and update this report `International Wind Power Development - Market Update 1996` every year in March. The latest issue was published in December of 1995 by BTM Consult ApS. Market data for demand side does normally, where it has been possible, only include installed wind turbines which has been connected to the grid during 1996. Supply side data is based on collected information (reference lists) from the 12-15 largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world. Due to these circumstances there are some conflicts between demand side and supply side data. Another important factor is that all wind turbine manufacturers do not use the same methodology when they are making their reference lists. Some manufacturers include only installed and operating wind turbines, while others include all units shipped from the factory. This is another conflict that might cause some differences in the data. Lately another new issue has been added to the list of uncertain factors, which is: is a Nordex Balcke-Duerr wind turbine Danish or German? And is a Gamesa Eolica wind turbine Danish or Spanish? etc. To minimize annual variations, this report includes the last 3 years data for the largest markets and wind turbine manufacturers. The prognosis includes data for the next 5 years until the year 2001, and an estimate has also been included for development until the year 2005. This version of the report can be found on internet web-pages: http://home4.inet.tele.dk/btmcwind/index.html. (EG)

  2. American Material Culture: Investigating a World War II Trash Dump

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Julie Braun

    2005-10-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory: An Historical Trash Trove Historians and archaeologists love trash, the older the better. Sometimes these researchers find their passion in unexpected places. In this presentation, the treasures found in a large historic dump that lies relatively untouched in the middle of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will be described. The U.S. military used the central portion of the INL as one of only six naval proving grounds during World War II. They dumped trash in dry irrigation canals during and after their wartime activities and shortly before the federal government designated this arid and desolate place as the nation’s nuclear reactor testing station in 1949. When read critically and combined with memories and photographs, the 60-year old trash provides a glimpse into 1940s’ culture and the everyday lives of ordinary people who lived and worked during this time on Idaho’s desert. Thanks to priceless stories, hours of research, and the ability to read the language of historic artifacts, the dump was turned from just another trash heap into a treasure trove of 1940s memorabilia. Such studies of American material culture serve to fire our imaginations, enrich our understanding of past practices, and humanize history. Historical archaeology provides opportunities to integrate inanimate objects with animated narrative and, the more recent the artifacts, the more human the stories they can tell.

  3. American Material Culture: Investigating a World War II Trash Dump

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Julie Braun

    2005-10-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory: An Historical Trash Trove Historians and archaeologists love trash, the older the better. Sometimes these researchers find their passion in unexpected places. In this presentation, the treasures found in a large historic dump that lies relatively untouched in the middle of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will be described. The U.S. military used the central portion of the INL as one of only six naval proving grounds during World War II. They dumped trash in dry irrigation canals during and after their wartime activities and shortly before the federal government designated this arid and desolate place as the nation’s nuclear reactor testing station in 1949. When read critically and combined with memories and photographs, the 60-year old trash provides a glimpse into 1940s’ culture and the everyday lives of ordinary people who lived and worked during this time on Idaho’s desert. Thanks to priceless stories, hours of research, and the ability to read the language of historic artifacts, the dump was turned from just another trash heap into a treasure trove of 1940s memorabilia. Such studies of American material culture serve to fire our imaginations, enrich our understanding of past practices, and humanize history. Historical archaeology provides opportunities to integrate inanimate objects with animated narrative and, the more recent the artifacts, the more human the stories they can tell.

  4. Living in a Materials World: Materials Science Engineering Professional Development for K-12 Educators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anne Seifert; Louis Nadelson

    2011-06-01

    Advances in materials science are fundamental to technological developments and have broad societal impacs. For example, a cellular phone is composed of a polymer case, liquid crystal displays, LEDs, silicon chips, Ni-Cd batteries, resistors, capacitors, speakers, microphones all of which have required advances in materials science to be compacted into a phone which is typically smaller than a deck of cards. Like many technological developments, cellular phones have become a ubiquitous part of society, and yet most people know little about the materials science associated with their manufacture. The probable condition of constrained knowledge of materials science was the motivation for developing and offering a 20 hour fourday course called 'Living in a Materials World.' In addition, materials science provides a connection between our every day experiences and the work of scientists and engineers. The course was offered as part of a larger K-12 teacher professional development project and was a component of a week-long summer institute designed specifically for upper elementary and middle school teachers which included 20 hour content strands, and 12 hours of plenary sessions, planning, and collaborative sharing. The focus of the institute was on enhancing teacher content knowledge in STEM, their capacity for teaching using inquiry, their comfort and positive attitudes toward teaching STEM, their knowledge of how people learn, and strategies for integrating STEM throughout the curriculum. In addition to the summer institute the participating teachers were provided with a kit of about $300 worth of materials and equipment to use to implement the content they learned in their classrooms. As part of this professional development project the participants were required to design and implement 5 lesson plans with their students this fall and report on the results, as part of the continuing education course associated with the project. 'Living in a

  5. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Coelho, Caio A S; Bailey, Trevor C; Coelho, Giovanini Evelim; Graham, Richard; Jupp, Tim; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-07-01

    With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnol

  6. The Dichotomous Cosmology with a Static Material World and Expanding Luminous World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heymann Y.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The dichotomous cosmology is an alternative to the expanding Universe theory, and consists of a static matter Universe, where cosmological redshifts are explained by a tired-light model with an expanding luminous world. In this model the Hubble constant is also the photon energy decay rate, and the luminous world i s expanding at a constant rate as in de Sitter cosmology for an empty Universe. The present model explains both the luminosity distance versus redshift relationship of supernovae Ia, and ageing of spectra observed with the stretching of supernovae light curves. Furthermore, it is consistent with a radiation energy density factor (1 + z 4 inferred from the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation.

  7. Stuff- The Materials that Shape our World - Experimental Learning Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenstein, Pam

    2012-04-30

    Making Stuff is a four-part series that explores how materials changed history and are shaping the future. To further enhance public engagement in and understanding of materials science, the project convened an extensive network of community coalitions across the country that hosted Making Stuff outreach activities and events, science cafes, and educator workshops in their local areas. Department Of Energy funding enabled us to increase the number of communities formally involved in the project, from 10 to 20 community hubs. Department of Energy funding also made it possible to develop a collection of materials science resources, activities and hands-on demonstrations for use in a variety of formal and informal settings, and Making Stuff activities were presented at science conferences and festivals around the country. The design, printing and national dissemination of the Making Stuff afterschool activity guide were also developed with DOE funding, as well as professional webinar trainings for scientists and educators to help facilitate many of the community activities and other online and print materials. Thanks to additional funding from the Department of Energy, we were able to expand the reach and scope of the project's outreach plan, specifically in the areas of: 1) content development, 2) training/professional development, 3) educational activities and 4) community partnerships. This report documents how the following DOE project goals were met: (1) Train scientists and provide teachers and informal educators with resources to engage youth with age appropriate information about materials science; (2) Provide activities and resources to five selected communities with ties to DOE researchers; (3) Increase interest in STEM.

  8. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika, E-mail: novia.antika.a@gmail.com [Geophysics Sub-department, Physics Department, Faculty of Mathematic and Natural Science, Universitas Gadjah Mada. BLS 21 Yogyakarta 55281 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  9. Generalized Wind Turbine Actuator Disk Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for Real-World Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marjanovic, N.; Mirocha, J. D.; Chow, F. K.

    2013-12-01

    In this work, we examine the performance of a generalized actuator disk (GAD) model embedded within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model to study wake effects on successive rows of turbines at a North American wind farm. These wake effects are of interest as they can drastically reduce down-wind energy extraction and increase turbulence intensity. The GAD, which is designed for turbulence-resolving simulations, is used within downscaled large-eddy simulations (LES) forced with mesoscale simulations and WRF's grid nesting capability. The GAD represents the effects of thrust and torque created by a wind turbine on the atmosphere within a disk representing the rotor swept area. The lift and drag forces acting on the turbine blades are parameterized using blade-element theory and the aerodynamic properties of the blades. Our implementation permits simulation of turbine wake effects and turbine/airflow interactions within a realistic atmospheric boundary layer flow field, including resolved turbulence, time-evolving mesoscale forcing, and real topography. The GAD includes real-time yaw and pitch control to respond realistically to changing flow conditions. Simulation results are compared to SODAR data from operating wind turbines and an already existing WRF mesoscale turbine drag parameterization to validate the GAD parameterization.

  10. Live Specimens More Effective than World Wide Web for Learning Plant Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taraban, Roman; McKenney, Cynthia; Peffley, Ellen; Applegarth, Ashley

    2004-01-01

    The World Wide Web and other computer-based media are new teaching resources for plant identification. The purpose of the experiments reported here was to test whether learning plant identification for woody and herbaceous plant material over the web was as effective, more effective, or preferred by undergraduate students when compared with…

  11. Interlibrary Loan Requests for Locally Available Materials: WorldCat Local's Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffney, Megan

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have researched the reasons and patterns for academic library users' interlibrary loan requests for materials already available at their college or university library. This study examines interlibrary loan statistics at the University of Delaware for four academic years to determine whether WorldCat Local impacts requests for…

  12. Cork - a renewable raw material: forecast of industrial potential and development priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Ana; Bordado, João

    2015-02-01

    This article aims to report the main applications of cork material from ancient times until nowadays, describing its industrial potential for other applications under study. It is also described the cork origin, the extraction process and the relationship between composition and cellular structure with properties.

  13. Performance of the 'material Failure Forecast Method' in real-time situations: A Bayesian approach applied on effusive and explosive eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boué, A.; Lesage, P.; Cortés, G.; Valette, B.; Reyes-Dávila, G.; Arámbula-Mendoza, R.; Budi-Santoso, A.

    2016-11-01

    Most attempts of deterministic eruption forecasting are based on the material Failure Forecast Method (FFM). This method assumes that a precursory observable, such as the rate of seismic activity, can be described by a simple power law which presents a singularity at a time close to the eruption onset. Until now, this method has been applied only in a small number of cases, generally for forecasts in hindsight. In this paper, a rigorous Bayesian approach of the FFM designed for real-time applications is applied. Using an automatic recognition system, seismo-volcanic events are detected and classified according to their physical mechanism and time series of probability distributions of the rates of events are calculated. At each time of observation, a Bayesian inversion provides estimations of the exponent of the power law and of the time of eruption, together with their probability density functions. Two criteria are defined in order to evaluate the quality and reliability of the forecasts. Our automated procedure has allowed the analysis of long, continuous seismic time series: 13 years from Volcán de Colima, Mexico, 10 years from Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island, France, and several months from Merapi volcano, Java, Indonesia. The new forecasting approach has been applied to 64 pre-eruptive sequences which present various types of dominant seismic activity (volcano-tectonic or long-period events) and patterns of seismicity with different level of complexity. This has allowed us to test the FFM assumptions, to determine in which conditions the method can be applied, and to quantify the success rate of the forecasts. 62% of the precursory sequences analysed are suitable for the application of FFM and half of the total number of eruptions are successfully forecast in hindsight. In real-time, the method allows for the successful forecast of 36% of all the eruptions considered. Nevertheless, real-time forecasts are successful for 83% of the cases that fulfil the

  14. The ultimate constituents of the material world in search of an ontology for fundamental physics

    CERN Document Server

    Kuhlmann, Meinard

    2010-01-01

    Today, quantum field theory (QFT)-the mathematical and conceptual framework for contemporary elementary particle physics-is the best starting point for analysing the fundamental building blocks of the material world. QFT if taken seriously in its metaphysical implications yields a picture of the world that is at variance with central classical conceptions. The core of Kuhlmann's investigation consists in the analysis of various ontological interpretations of QFT, e.g. substance ontologies as well as a process-ontological approach. Eventually, Kuhlmann proposes a dispositional trope ontology, a

  15. Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K.

    OpenAIRE

    Promponas, Pantelis; Peel, David Alan

    2016-01-01

    Exchange rate forecasting has become an arena for many researchers the last decades while predictability depends heavily on several factors such as the choice of the fundamentals, the econometric model and the data form. The aim of this paper is to assess whether modelling time-variation and other forms of instabilities may improve the forecasting performance of the models. Paper begins with a brief critical review of the recently developed exchange rate forecasting models and continues with ...

  16. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  17. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  18. Insights from the 3rd World Congress on Integrated Computational Materials Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, D.; Goodlet, B.; Weaver, J.; Spanos, G.

    2016-05-01

    The 3rd World Congress on Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) was a forum for presenting the "state-of-the-art" in the ICME discipline, as well as for charting a path for future community efforts. The event concluded with in an interactive panel-led discussion that addressed such topics as integrating efforts between experimental and computational scientists, uncertainty quantification, and identifying the greatest challenges for future workforce preparation. This article is a summary of this discussion and the thoughts presented.

  19. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Jinyin Ye; Yuehong Shao; Zhijia Li

    2016-01-01

    TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble) was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment). It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability fo...

  20. Forecast Analysis on Quantity of Demand for Raw Materials of Wood Processing Factory%木材加工厂原料需求量预测分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓蓉; 邱荣祖

    2014-01-01

    Forecast the demand for wood raw material quantity is a key link of wood processing enterprises inventory control,even may directly affect overall planning for future operations planning of the plant.In this paper a man-made board factory of Fujian,which's wood raw material demand was for basic date,and the combination forecasting model using grey prediction and three exponential smoothing prediction was established,also the error sum of squares minimization method was adopted to define the optimal weights of single prediction model,finally the demand for wood raw material of man-made board factory was forecasted and analysed.%木质原料需求量预测是木材加工企业库存控制的关键环节,甚至会直接影响到加工厂未来运营计划的整体规划。文中以福建某造板厂木材原料需求量为基础数据,建立组合灰色预测和三次指数平滑预测的预测模型,采用误差平方和极小化的方法确定单项预测模型最优权重,并对造板厂木材原料需求量加以预测和分析。

  1. Identifying World Views Projected by Science Teaching Materials: A Case Study Using Pepper's WORLD HYPOTHESES to Analyze a Biology Textbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilbourn, Brent

    The purpose of this study is to develop and demonstrate the use of a conceptual framework for assessing the potential of "world view" as a concept for understanding important issues in science education. The framework is based on Stephen C. Pepper's treatment of six world hypotheses (animism, mysticism, formism, mechansim, contextualism, and…

  2. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  3. Materials characterization of dusts generated by the collapse of the World Trade Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeker, Gregory P.; Sutley, Stephen J.; Brownfield, Isabelle; Lowers, Heather; Bern, Amy M.; Swayze, Gregg A.; Hoefen, Todd M.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Clark, Roger N.; Gent, Carol A.

    2009-01-01

    The major inorganic components of the dusts generated from the collapse of the World Trade Center buildings on September 11, 2001 were concrete materials, gypsum, and man-made vitreous fibers. These components were likely derived from lightweight Portland cement concrete floors, gypsum wallboard, and spray-on fireproofing and ceiling tiles, respectively. All of the 36 samples collected by the USGS team had these materials as the three major inorganic components of the dust. Components found at minor and trace levels include chrysotile asbestos, lead, crystalline silica, and particles of iron and zinc oxides. Other heavy metals, such as lead, bismuth, copper, molybdenum, chromium, and nickel, were present at much lower levels occurring in a variety of chemical forms. Several of these materials have health implications based on their chemical composition, morphology, and bioaccessibility.

  4. Development of new substances and materials in the world and in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.O. Sichkarenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The purpose of article is to show the position of Ukraine’s research in the sphere of new substances and materials in world context, and what types of new materials are the most perspective in that moment. The results of the analysis. The article includes the results of the analysis in the field of new substances and materials in the world and particularly in Ukraine. The author says that there are a lot of definitions of the term “advanced materials”, and there are some points of view what advanced materials are and how it makes influences to economic development. The author allows that the sphere of researching in the field of advanced materials and substances is actual and it is in the focus of the scientific community. The author has analyzed what countries are leaders in this direction and why they got their positions. The most important idea in the article is how low-income countries can take part in this direction of scientific researches. Ukraine is one of the examples which show how a low-income country can develop its own research in the field of advanced materials and substances. In addition the author has researched European Union’s experience in innovation policy and innovation sphere and particularly in the field of advanced materials. The scientific importance of the article is demonstration, how low-income countries like Ukraine can develop scientific research in the field of new substances and materials with poor funding and weak government institutions. If to talk briefly about the research results, we should mention the following. Scientific research in the field of new substances and materials is the significant part of the research activities in general. It is quite difficult to appreciate the importance of this area, but it is possible to say clearly, that development of new compounds and materials is at least one fifth of all physical and chemical researches. The most important scientific

  5. On the reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Weisheimer, Antje

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal climate forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that goodness should be assessed primarily in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts and that a 5 should be reserved for systems which are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as a world leading operational institute producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of goodness rankings, depending on regio...

  6. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  7. STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT RUSSIAN INNOVATION SPHERE THE PROGRAM OF THE PRESIDIUM OF RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES «Analysis and Forecast of long-term scientifi c trends and technological development: Russia and the World»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Ivanter

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problems of development of Russian innovation sector, taking into account progress level, global trends and prospects of both science and the conditions of social and economic development. The studies were conducted in the framework of the Program of the Presidium of RAS «Analysis and Forecast of long-term scientifi c trends and technological development: Russia and the World». The results led to the conclusions about the long-term goals, and the possible ways of achieving them.

  8. Charitable activities in Tsaritsyn during the World War I (on materials of periodicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana A. Karagodina

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the article is to identify the charitable activities carried out in the city of Tsaritsyn during the World War I. As a method of research used analysis of materials of pre-revolutionary periodicals published in the city in time of war. The main source of analysis is the issues of the newspaper «Tsaritsyno Bulletin» for the period from July 1914 to February 1917. The analysis allowed to identify the most priority directions of charitable aid, carried out in Tsaritsyn in the war. Also, the article discusses the activities of public organizations and associations, involved in the provision of charitable assistance to the sick and wounded soldiers, their wives and children, refugees. In particular, the reports of the Ladies' Committee of Tsaritsyn and the Tsaritsyn branch of the Russian Red Cross Society are analyzed and the features of the activity of these organizations are revealed.

  9. R'07 World Congress - Recovery of materials and energy for resource efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This final congress report summarises the topics dealt with at the R'07 World Congress on the recovery of materials and energy for resource efficiency. The congress was held in 2007 in Davos, Switzerland. Details on the organisation and participants are given and the experts who held plenary lectures are listed. Brief details are given on oral and poster sessions, along with details on how the proceedings of the congress can be obtained. Workshops held at the conference covered the following topics: Plastics recycling, biofuels and E-waste, workshops on zero wastes, scarce metals and the identification and management of social implications over the product life cycle (footprint). An Internet-address where the results of the sessions can be obtained is given along with a summary of excursions and social events held within the framework of the congress. Finally, participant feedback is presented in graphical form.

  10. Innovation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-01

    relating to “ injectors ”) to develop a map of the related technologies [33.] Another approach is to develop a “tree” showing a system branching into its...additional terms such as “trend,” “forecast,” “ delphi ,” “assessment,” and so forth may call up other forecasts and assessments relating to the topic...present and future engine technologies. A preliminary search (Step 1, Table 5) located prior forecasts, in particular, a Delphi study [36]. The Delphi

  11. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  12. Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty (initial error) and the forecast uncertainty (forecast error) by applying either the initial perturbation method or the multi-model/multiphysics method. In fact, the mean of an ensemble forecast offers a better forecast than a deterministic (or control) forecast after a short lead time (3 5 days) for global modelling applications. There is about a 1-2-day improvement in the forecast skill when using an ensemble mean instead of a single forecast for longer lead-time. The skillful forecast (65% and above of an anomaly correlation) could be extended to 8 days (or longer) by present-day ensemble forecast systems. Furthermore, ensemble forecasts can deliver a probabilistic forecast to the users, which is based on the probability density function (PDF)instead of a single-value forecast from a traditional deterministic system. It has long been recognized that the ensemble forecast not only improves our weather forecast predictability but also offers a remarkable forecast for the future uncertainty, such as the relative measure of predictability (RMOP) and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). Not surprisingly, the success of the ensemble forecast and its wide application greatly increase the confidence of model developers and research communities.

  13. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  14. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  15. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  16. IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut; Shaw, Will; Pinson, Pierre; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Kariniotakis, Georges; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Draxl, Caroline

    2017-04-01

    Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, …) and operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets for verification. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts aiming at industry and forecasters alike. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic ones. The Operating Agent is Gregor Giebel of DTU, Co-Operating Agent is Joel Cline of the US Department of Energy. Collaboration in the task is solicited from everyone interested in the forecasting business. We will collaborate with IEA Task 31 Wakebench, which developed the Windbench benchmarking platform, which this task will use for forecasting benchmarks. The task runs for three years, 2016-2018. Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts

  17. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  18. "Nothing like Pretend": Difference, Disorder, and Dystopia in the Multiple World Spaces of Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, Sarah K.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the multiple worlds in Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials" trilogy in light Pierre Bourdieu's "space of possibles" and the combination of chance and choice that impact Lyra and Will's decisions. Rather than viewing chance or destiny as disempowering, this article considers how the protagonists' choices also encourage…

  19. Pykrete is the frozen composite material of the World War II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Kovalev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the war, government of the allies considered the construction of ice structures converted from artificial icebergs into aircraft carriers. The idea to use ice for construction of floating aerodromes, or giant aircraft carriers, was launched by Geoffrey Pyke, and then was developed in a project called «Habbakuk». Aircraft carriers, made of ice, had to work for a long period of time at temperatures of water and air, resulting in rapid destruction of the structure of ordinary ice. The ice in its pure form is unsuitable for any engineering form therefore the experiments on reinforcement of ice were undertaken. New form of ice engineering was based on the type of reinforcement patterns of ice and coating it with an insulating material, which would greatly reduce the influence of melting due to the temperature of the ambient air. After tests with different substances and proportions, it was found that the mixture of ice with wood pulp, amounting to about 14%, gives the best result of reinforcement. Proposed dimensions of «Habbakuk» were 610 m (2000 ft long, 90 m (300 feet in width and a height of 60 m (200 ft. In 1943, on the surface of the lake Patricia a reduced model to test the viability of the project was constructed. Development of improved long-range aviation, the airbase in Iceland and other technological advances contributed to the successful elimination of the threat from submarines, so the project had been suspended. The technology of strong ice structures invented during the World War II time can still have practical applications today.

  20. The early-warning effects of assimilation of the observations over the large-scale slope of the "World Roof" on its downstream weather forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG ShiQiu; XU XiangDe; SHI XiaoHui; WANG DongXiao; ZHU YuXiang; PU JingJiao

    2009-01-01

    To improve the numerical simulation of the severe snow storms occurred in the south of China and the middle/lower reaches of Changjiang River during January of 2008, the observations from the automatic weather stations (AWS) over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its surrounding areas were assimi-lated into the Weather Research and Forecasts (WRF) model using multi-cycle 3-dimensional varia-tional data assimilation (3DVAR). Due to the large-scale special topography of the QXP and its sur-rounding areas which may reach up to the mid-troposphere, the AWS located at different height on the deep slope of the plateau are different to those located on plains and take e role analogous in some extent to that of radio soundings in obtaining the vertical "profile" information of the atmosphere, and have the advantages in the aspects of sampling frequency, location/height fixing, and synchronization. The information captured by these AWS may carry the early-warning "strong signals" in the upstream sensitive area for the downstream weather systems to the east of the plateau and thus the assimilation of these AWS data is expected to lead to significant improvements on the simulation of the severe weather system occurred in its downstream areas through adjusting the 3-dimensional structures of the atmospheric thermal-dynamics for the initial conditions of the model. This study indicates that the assimilated information of moisture, temperature and pressure carried in the observations of AWS over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding areas is very important and useful in the forecasting of precipitation in its downstream areas.

  1. Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.; Changnon, David

    1995-05-01

    The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-depth structured interviews were conducted with 56 decision makers in six utilities to assess existing and potential uses of climate forecasts. Only 3 of the 56 use forecasts. Eighty percent of those sampled envisioned applications of climate forecasts, given certain changes and additional information. Primary applications exist in power trading, load forecasting, fuel acquisition, and systems planning, with slight differences in interests between utilities. Utility staff understand probability-based forecasts but desire climatological information related to forecasted outcomes, including analogs similar to the forecasts, and explanations of the forecasts. Desired lead times vary from a week to three months, along with forecasts of up to four seasons ahead. The new NOAA forecasts initiated in 1995 provide the lead times and longer-term forecasts desired. Major hindrances to use of forecasts are hard-to-understand formats, lack of corporate acceptance, and lack of access to expertise. Recent changes in government regulations altered the utility industry, leading to a more competitive world wherein information about future weather conditions assumes much more value. Outreach efforts by government forecast agencies appear valuable to help achieve the appropriate and enhanced use of climate forecasts by the utility industry. An opportunity for service exists also for the private weather sector.

  2. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  3. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  4. Analytic method for material aging and quality analyzing to forecast long time stability of plastic micro heliostat components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauerborn, Markus; Liebenstund, Lena; Raue, Markus; Mang, Thomas; Herrmann, Ulf; Dueing, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    The Solar-Institute Jülich (SIJ) developed the micro heliostat system - a small sized heliostat - during the last years. One special performance of the micro heliostat is the option to integrate inexpensive plastic elements. The use of plastic as a cost reducer in the heliostat technique is also offering the chance to integrate complex designed components with a higher quality and special system function. The plastic for this application requires a high standing against UV radiation and thermal cycles with a daily extreme temperature variation. The temperature range inside the closed micro heliostat box can annually fluctuate between -20 °C and 80 °C in the worst case. Special aging tests were designed and performed for the first time in cooperation with the Institute for Applied Polymer Science (IAP) in order to identify and qualify a resistance plastic for the micro heliostat. This systematic plastic aging testing for the micro heliostat is introduced here. The tests were carried out under extreme ambient situations, which simulate the temperature and irradiation conditions that the heliostat has to stand for years. A particular climate of arid areas with continuous high solar radiation was defined for these tests. Two accelerating aging methods were adapted to reach adequate aging results in a reduced time. The aging of the investigated kinds of plastics were followed by tensile test, impact test, measuring Shore hardness, dynamic-mechanical analysis, differential scanning calorimetry and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy to compare the different types of polymers. Parallel to these tests running real outdoor tests were performed, to control this accelerated aging. To have adequate conditions that the plastic in a micro heliostat has to stand, an identical closed test box with a glass cover was designed. The test samples inside the box were irradiated by the sun. The wanted forecast for the analyzed plastic was defined by the comparison of the real and

  5. Information Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  6. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A; Palmer, T N

    2014-07-06

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a '5' should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of 'goodness' rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching '5' across all regions and variables in 30 years time.

  7. World Materials Summit (3rd). Held in Washington, DC on 9-12 October, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-23

    Materials360 electronic newsletter Immediately after the meeting ran highlights from some of the keynote and plenary presentations. Publicized Linkedln group...reliability Science for substitutions through materials discovery (alloys, nanomaterials, components): composition, structure and morphology \\ A

  8. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast ...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  9. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  10. ECPC’s weekly to seasonal global forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    John O. Roads; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis M. Fujioka

    2001-01-01

    The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near-real-time seasonal global forecasts since 26 September 1997 with the NCEP global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal timescales, are provided on the World Wide Web and digital forecast products are provided on the ECPC...

  11. To Encounter, to Build the World and to Become a Human Being. Advocating for a Material-Cultural Turn in Developmental Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moro, Christiane

    2016-12-01

    Why have material world of daily life and material objects in their conventional features or to say it in other words, why have the mundane world and mundane objects, in which the human beings live and children come to, encounter, experience and develop through, received so little attention from psychologists thus remaining a blind spot in mainstream developmental psychology? Certainly the object has not been totally forgotten (e.g. Piaget's constructivist paradigm) but it has been considered as theoretically determined by the categories of understanding (cf. Kant), and considered as a key to understanding the world in its physical properties by the infant. But the material world and the material objects that are used for everyday purposes (i.e. pragmatically) belonging to material culture, have been totally neglected by developmental psychologists. Reacting to the Kantian agenda of developmental psychology but also to heterodox non developmentalist thinkers such as Gibson who is a growing source of inspiration for developmental psychologists today, we challenge the taken-for-granted mundane world, arguing for the importance of material objects related to material culture in psychological development during the prelinguistic period. On the basis of recent research in early development grounded in the Vygotskian paradigm, we discuss this issue through Marxist Anthropology, Material Culture Studies and Phenomenology. As a consequence we advocate for a material-cultural turn in psychological development in order to place the issue of material world and material objects in their pragmatic and semiotic features on the agenda of developmental psychology.

  12. Is Information Enough? User Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Sub{sub S}aharan Africa, Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto; Kingamkono, Robert; Hochobeb, Ben

    2000-05-01

    Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Nino events and their impact on climate variability. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines how farmers received and used the forecasts in the agricultural season of 1997/1998. It also summarises a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa. Comparison of case studies across south Africa revealed differences in forecast dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. However, improving these strategies and the capacity to respond to the forecasts would yield net profit to agriculture in southern Africa. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there clearly is a need for improved seasonal forecasts and improved information dissemination.

  13. Gas demand forecasting by a new artificial intelligent algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatibi. B, Vahid; Khatibi, Elham

    2012-01-01

    Energy demand forecasting is a key issue for consumers and generators in all energy markets in the world. This paper presents a new forecasting algorithm for daily gas demand prediction. This algorithm combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP), linear regression or GARCH. The proposed method is applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the proposed method.

  14. 48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... problems. (c) Single or one-time cash flow forecasts are of limited forecasting power. As such, they should... material amounts of cash within the entire business unit responsible for contract performance, period by...

  15. Semantic network mapping of religious material: testing multi-agent computer models of social theories against real-world data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Justin E

    2015-11-01

    Agent-based modeling allows researchers to investigate theories of complex social phenomena and subsequently use the model to generate new hypotheses that can then be compared to real-world data. However, computer modeling has been underutilized in regard to the understanding of religious systems, which often require very complex theories with multiple interacting variables (Braxton et al. in Method Theory Study Relig 24(3):267-290, 2012. doi: 10.1163/157006812X635709 ; Lane in J Cogn Sci Relig 1(2):161-180, 2013). This paper presents an example of how computer modeling can be used to explore, test, and further understand religious systems, specifically looking at one prominent theory of religious ritual. The process is continuous: theory building, hypothesis generation, testing against real-world data, and improving the model. In this example, the output of an agent-based model of religious behavior is compared against real-world religious sermons and texts using semantic network analysis. It finds that most religious materials exhibit unique scale-free small-world properties and that a concept's centrality in a religious schema best predicts its frequency of presentation. These results reveal that there adjustments need to be made to existing models of religious ritual systems and provide parameters for future models. The paper ends with a discussion of implications for a new multi-agent model of doctrinal ritual behaviors as well as propositions for further interdisciplinary research concerning the multi-agent modeling of religious ritual behaviors.

  16. The politics of energy forecasting. A comparative study of energy forecasting in Western Europe and North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumgartner, T.; Midttun, A.

    1987-01-01

    This book examines the process of model building and forecasting with particular reference to energy. It concentrates on the last twenty years when modelling methodologies and forecasting exercises have multiplied, the models have become increasingly complex, and the forecasts more and more long-term. Using a set of country case studies, the contributors illustrate the many forces which shape energy models and forecasts. They also analyse the ambitious IIASA world energy model.

  17. Caricature as a type of propaganda during World War I (as illustrated by materials published in the Ogoniok magazine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyubov G. Polyakova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes caricature as a propaganda instrument utilized during World War I. The source used includes caricatures published in Ogoniok, a Russian magazine, in 1914–1916. The systematization principle, applied in the study into the caricatures, helped to identify main topics that were a subject for debate in the periodical press. Importantly, the researcher also remains as neutral in their interpretation and assessment of the actual material in the study as possible. At the end, the author concludes that the Ogoniok magazine focused its caricatures on the topic of Germany during World War I, while allies of Germany – Austria-Hungary and Turkey – were paid much less attention. The propaganda usually portrayed German allies in as dependent countries which were subordinate to Germany. In addition to the Entente's enemies, the caricature genre highlighted the military topic and the subject of the issued society faced in the rear.

  18. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  19. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. krdu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kiwd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. krbl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kssf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ksaw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kgck Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kcvg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. krow Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbtv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbke Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kbpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. klnd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kbis Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kteb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kely Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kfat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. phny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbos Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpdx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. tjsj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpae Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kalb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kjax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kfwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. khts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kslc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ksns Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. krwf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksua Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. klan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcgi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbyi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kgcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kryy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kvtn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kdhn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kcll Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktmb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. khvr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kara Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kinw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kism Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kues Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kida Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. khut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. keug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kazo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbvi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbrl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kgon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kofk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kbbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ktyr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kgfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. krap Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ktlh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kagc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kelm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. khln Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kgeg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktxk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpou Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kacy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ksbp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kolm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kali Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kack Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ksff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. phto Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksez Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. tisx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kasd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. koma Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. paor Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. pkmj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. khdc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. klbe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kdmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpmd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksck Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kspi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kchs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ksjt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbdl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kcak Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. krst Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. pagk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kbhm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. koak Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kdbq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kcxo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. koxr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kfnt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kalw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kafw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kgwo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbtm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kase Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pata Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kguy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kdht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpwm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmer Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcnm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdag Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. pasi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kfmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. krdd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. phjr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbcb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbhb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kfmy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. khum Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. pakt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kmci Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. krwl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kcmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kpsc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khie Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. klgu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kfay Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmss Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kmlb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. paho Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. keyw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. klar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kogd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kgsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. pajn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kaus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kcar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kaeg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksoa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. paom Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. khya Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kjfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kpie Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpns Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ksat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcid Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khnd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. ksaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ktvl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ksdf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. krno Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcle Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kgpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. paun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. keat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pasc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. koun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. klee Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kiag Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kbmg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmmh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kiln Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kbmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcha Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpeq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kden Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kmaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. khsa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kvis Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kcub Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. ksfo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kjhw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kdab Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kecp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kroc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kfod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pabe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. krvs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kgld Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. Business forecasting methods

    OpenAIRE

    Skribans, V.

    2002-01-01

    The paper comprises three parts: description of the forecasting conception, classification of forecasting methods, and the general forecasting model. The first part deals with the definition of business forecasting, the second classifies and deals in more detail with the most frequently practiced forecasting methods and comes up with recommendations how to apply them in specific situations. The third part present the analysis of newly established forecasting model.

  20. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  1. Material consumption and social well-being within the periphery of the world economy: an ecological analysis of maternal mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, James

    2008-12-01

    The degree to which social well-being is predicated upon levels of material consumption remains under-examined from a large-N, quantitative perspective. The present study analyzes the factors influencing levels of maternal mortality in 2005 among 92 peripheral countries. We incorporate into regression analysis the ecological footprint, a comprehensive measure of natural resource consumption, and alternative explanatory variables drawn from previous research. Results illustrate ecological footprint consumption has a moderately strong direct influence shaping lower levels of maternal mortality. Path analysis reveals export commodity concentration has a negative effect on level of ecological footprint demand net the strong positive influence of income per capita. This illustrates cross-national trade dependency relations directly influence natural resource consumption opportunities and thereby indirectly contribute to higher maternal mortality levels within the periphery of the world economy. The results confirm material consumption is an important dimension of improvement in maternal mortality.

  2. Review of world experience and properties of materials for encapsulation of terrestrial photovoltaic arrays. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carmichael, D.C.; Gaines, G.B.; Sliemers, F.A.; Kistler, C.W.; Igou, R.D.

    1976-07-21

    Available information defining the state of the art of encapsulation materials and processes for terrestrial photovoltaic devices and related applications were collected and analyzed. Based on criteria of properties, processability, availability, and cost, candidate materials were identified which have potential for use in encapsulation systems for low-cost, long-life terrestrial photovoltaic arrays manufactured by automated, high-volume processes. The criteria for consideration of the encapsulation systems were based on the goals for arrays with a lifetime of over 20 years high reliability, an efficiency greater than 10 percent, a total array price less than $500/kW, and a production capacity of 5 x 10/sup 5/ kW/yr. (WDM)

  3. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-12-11

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

  4. Aperiodic compression and reconstruction of real-world material systems based on Wang tiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doškář, Martin; Novák, Jan; Zeman, Jan

    2014-12-01

    The paper presents a concept to compress and synthesize complex material morphologies that is based on Wang tilings. Specifically, a microstructure is stored in a set of Wang tiles and its reconstruction is performed by means of a stochastic tiling algorithm. A substantial part of the study is devoted to the setup of optimal parameters of the automatic tile design by means of parametric studies with statistical descriptors at heart. The performance of the method is demonstrated on four two-dimensional two-phase target systems, monodisperse media with hard and soft disks, sandstone, and high porosity metallic foam.

  5. Use of historical documents in a digital world: comparisons with original materials and microfiche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Duff

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper reports on a user study of a digital library collection of Early Canadiana material, with comparisons to the use of the material in original paper and microfiche formats. The study included a survey of individuals who had used Early Canadiana in original paper, microfiche or WWW format, focus group sessions, and server log analysis. The purpose of the study was to compare use and user satisfaction across the three formats to identify ways to improve the WWW format. Although, as expected, many people liked the paper format the best, over half of those who had experience with all three formats thought that the WWW format would be most useful in their work.  However, some users expressed concerns about the authenticity of the WWW format.  This raises questions for digital libraries to make explicit the relationship between the original paper and digital formats. The research led to 26 recommendations. To date, over half have been implemented or are in the process of being implemented.  The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.

  6. Charity of Kharkov Citizens During the First World War (According to the Materials of Local Newspapers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyakova Elena

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available he author made attempt to show how the journalists reflected in local press the help by Kharkov people to wounded soldiers and refugees during the First World War. In those years the wounded and sick soldiers were evacuated to Kharkov, the enterprises and refugees from western regions of the Russian Empire were transported there as well. All of these required the active help from local residents. A lot of local newspapers wrote about charity of Kharkov people. Such newspapers as Kharkovskie gubernskie vedomosti, Uzhny krai informed daily the readers about the raised sums, the charity events held to help the wounded, refugees and soldiers’ families. During wartime, many of the headlines were devoted to the military actions of the Russians and allied troops. Newspapers reported about money donations to soldiers and their families, refugees and evacuees in the city and the village of Kharkov governorate. The activity of the Red Cross, clergy, workers in hospitals and training of the necessary personnel were highlighted. Local residents who wanted to help but did not have enough money could pay for the treatment of a wounded or sick soldier. Both famous and ordinary people helped the wounded. During the treatment of the soldiers the latest methods of diagnosis were used and financed by the military commission. The priests held all-night service, and students read books and talked about peaceful future. In some hospitals soldiers could watch films. Selfless work played an important role. Local peasant women sewed underwear and warm clothes and sent it to the front. The additional groups in the kindergartens for the soldiers’ children were opened. Ordinary citizens at their own expense.

  7. Making the Self in a Material World: Food and Moralities of Consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle de Solier

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Food is increasingly central to consumer culture today. From fine dining restaurants to farmers’ markets, stainless steel kitchenware to celebrity chef cookbooks, there is a stylish array of culinary commodities available for fashioning our identities. Yet this occurs at a time when commodity consumption more generally is under greater question as a site of self-making, with the rise of anti-consumerist sentiment. This article examines how people negotiate these issues in their identity formation, by focusing on those for whom food is central to their sense of self: ‘foodies’. I draw on theories of consumption, identity and material culture, in particular the work of Daniel Miller, to examine ethnographic research undertaken with foodies in Melbourne, Australia.

  8. Sales Forecasting for Fashion Retailing Service Industry: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is crucial for many retail operations. It is especially critical for the fashion retailing service industry in which product demand is very volatile and product’s life cycle is short. This paper conducts a comprehensive literature review and selects a set of papers in the literature on fashion retail sales forecasting. The advantages and the drawbacks of different kinds of analytical methods for fashion retail sales forecasting are examined. The evolution of the respective forecasting methods over the past 15 years is revealed. Issues related to real-world applications of the fashion retail sales forecasting models and important future research directions are discussed.

  9. Artificial Intelligence as a Business Forecasting and Error Handling Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Tabrez Quasim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available  Any business enterprise must rely a lot on how well it can predict the future happenings. To cope up with the modern global customer demand, technological challenges, market competitions etc., any organization is compelled to foresee the future having maximum impact and least chances of errors. The traditional forecasting approaches have some limitations. That is why the business world is adopting the modern Artificial Intelligence based forecasting techniques. This paper has tried to present different types of forecasting and AI techniques that are useful in business forecasting. At the later stage we have also discussed the forecasting errors and the steps involved in planning the AI support system.

  10. Experimental investigation of pressure responsive 'smart' materials found in the natural world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, George W.

    The unique ability to sense environmental stimuli and respond appropriately in a controlled and reversible fashion is a distinguishing characteristic of a novel class of materials collectively known as 'smart,' 'adaptive,' or 'responsive' materials. This seemingly 'smart' behavior is, thus, controlled by internal 'feedback loops' generated by the interconnectivity of various system elements which enables them to operate cooperatively and exhibit more complex behaviors as a collective. This thesis investigates, experimentally, three natural systems found in both the biological and non-biological domains which exhibit responsive or adaptive behaviors in the presence of external mechanical pressures by exploiting uniquely different chemical and physical principles. The first system focuses on articular cartilage, an example of an adaptive material which utilizes its distinctive hierachical, multi-scale structure in order to adjust and change its physical and lubricating properties to suit the specific needs under a broad range of normal and shear stresses. A compression cell designed to fit inside an NMR spectrometer was used to investigate the in situ mechanical strain response, structural changes to the internal pore structure, and the diffusion and flow of interstitial water in full thickness cartilage samples as it was deforming dynamically under a constant compressive load (pressure). We distinguish between the hydrostatic pressure acting on the interstitial fluid and the pore pressure acting on the cartilage fibril network. Our results show that properties related to the pore matrix microstructure such as diffusion and hydraulic conductivity are strongly influenced by the hydrostatic pressure in the interstitial fluid of the dynamically deforming cartilage which differ significantly from the properties measured under static i.e. equilibrium loading conditions (when the hydrostatic pressure has relaxed back to zero). The magnitude of the hydrostatic fluid

  11. Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we model and forecast Australian domestic tourism demand. We use a regression framework to estimate important economic relationships for domestic tourism demand. We also identify the impact of world events such as the 2000 Sydney Olympics and the 2002 Bali bombings on Australian domestic tourism. To explore the time series nature of the data, we use innovation state space models to forecast the domestic tourism demand. Combining these two frameworks, we build innovation state s...

  12. Forecasting global generation of obsolete personal computers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jinglei; Williams, Eric; Ju, Meiting; Yang, Yan

    2010-05-01

    Electronic waste (e-waste) has emerged as a new policy priority around the world. Motivations to address e-waste include rapidly growing waste streams, concern over the environmental fate of heavy metals and other substances in e-waste, and impacts of informal recycling in developing countries. Policy responses to global e-waste focus on banning international trade in end-of-life electronics, the premise being that e-waste is mainly generated in the developed world and then exported to the developing world. Sales of electronics have, however, been growing rapidly in developing nations, raising the question of whether informal recycling in developing countries driven by international trade or domestic generation. This paper addresses this question by forecasting the global generation of obsolete personal computers (PCs) using the logistic model and material flow analysis. Results show that the volume of obsolete PCs generated in developing regions will exceed that of developed regions by 2016-2018. By 2030, the obsolete PCs from developing regions will reach 400-700 million units, far more than from developed regions at 200-300 million units. Future policies to mitigate the impacts of informal recycling should address the domestic situation in developing countries.

  13. Forecasting Hurricane by Satellite Image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M. Y.

    Earth is an endanger planet. Severe weather, especially hurricanes, results in great disaster all the world. World Meteorology Organization and United Nations Environment Program established intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to offer warnings about the present and future disasters of the Earth. It is the mission for scientists to design warning system to predict the severe weather system and to reduce the damage of the Earth. Hurricanes invade all the world every year and made millions damage to all the people. Scientists in weather service applied satellite images and synoptic data to forecast the information for the next hours for warning purposes. Regularly, hurricane hits on Taiwan island directly will pass through her domain and neighbor within 10 hours. In this study, we are going to demonstrate a tricky hurricane NARI invaded Taiwan on September 16, 2000. She wandered in the neighborhood of the island more than 72 hours and brought heavy rainfall over the island. Her track is so tricky that scientists can not forecast her path using the regular method. Fortunately, all scientists in the Central Weather Bureau paid their best effort to fight against the tricky hurricane. Applying the new developed technique to analysis the satellite images with synoptic data and radar echo, scientists forecasted the track, intensity and rainfall excellently. Thus the damage of the severe weather reduced significantly.

  14. Space and Time as Containers of the "Physical Material World" with some Conceptual and Epistemological Consequences in Modern Physics

    CERN Document Server

    Mondragon, Mauricio

    2012-01-01

    A particular science is not only defined by its object of study, but also by the point of view and method under which it considers that same object. Taking space and time as an illustrative example, our main aim here is to bring out an almost forgotten conception of science found in many doctrines that seek mainly-but not only-a qualitative and synthetic knowledge rather than, as in modern physics, for example, a quantitative and analytic knowledge. The latter point of view is found to be very limited and fragmented, leaving outside many scientific questions and answers, while the former opens up the way to valuable and interesting answers to those and many other questions. In particular, we argue that the conception of space and time as containers of, respectively, bodies and events, clarify many conceptual and epistemological issues of modern science related to the physical material world.

  15. Space-time Evolution and Forecast of the Oil Palm Production and Trade in the World%世界油棕生产贸易的时空格局演变及发展预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐露; 刘养洁

    2012-01-01

      Oil palm is one kind of woody oil crops whose yield per unit area is highest, it is known as "the king of world's oil". The proportions of its production and trading volume are the highest in all kinds of oil crops, which has huge economic benefits. This research studies the origin of the world palm oil and geographical spread. It also analyzes oil palm production and trade situation in recent years. The result shows: oil palm originates in Africa, and spreads to the vast tropical areas of Asia、Africa and Latin America, now it forms three major producing areas, which are Central and West Africa、Southeast Asia、Central and South America, it also has the basic pattern of ten consumption areas such as India、China、the European Union. According to the research, the trade trend of oil palm production can be forecast, which gets three points: oil palm's acreage and consumer market will continue growing, new technology will boost oil palm yield and the sustainable use of oil palm will further to be strengthened.%  油棕是世界上单位面积产量最高的一种木本油料作物,有“世界油王”之称。它的产量和贸易量比重在植物油料中居世界第一,经济效益巨大。本文从世界油棕的起源与地理扩散入手,对近年来世界油棕的生产贸易现状作了分析,结果表明:油棕起源于非洲,扩散到亚非拉广大热带地区,目前形成中西非、东南亚、中南美三大产区和印、中、欧盟等十大消费地的基本格局。在此基础上,对油棕生产贸易的发展趋势作了预测,一是种植面积和油棕消费市场将会继续增长;二是新科技助力油棕的增产;三是油棕的可持续利用必将进一步加强。

  16. Global Patterns of Material Flows and their Socio-Economic and Environmental Implications: A MFA Study on All Countries World-Wide from 1980 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Giljum

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses world-wide patterns of material extraction, trade, consumption and productivity based on a new data set for economy-wide material flows, covering used materials for all countries world-wide between 1980 and 2009. We show that global material extraction has grown by more than 90% over the past 30 years and is reaching almost 70 billion tonnes today. Also, trade volumes in physical terms have increased by a factor of 2.5 over the past 30 years, and in 2009, 9.3 billion tonnes of raw materials and products were traded around the globe. China has turned into the biggest consumer of materials world-wide and together with the US, India, Brazil and Russia, consumes more than 50% of all globally extracted materials. We also show that the per-capita consumption levels are very uneven, with a factor of more than 60 between the country with the lowest and highest consumption in 2009. On average, each human being consumed 10 tonnes of materials in 2009, 2 tonnes more than in 1980. We discuss whether decoupling of economies’ growth from resource use has occurred and analyse interrelations of material use with human development. Finally, we elaborate on key environmental problems related to various material groups.

  17. World Economy:Experiencing an Unbalancing Recovery

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The world economy, led by emerging market and developing countries, is forecast to grow by 4.8 percent in 2010 before falling back to 4.2 percent next year, but a sharper global slowdown is unlikely, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says in its latest forecast report World Economy Outlook.

  18. Prospect on the World Trend 2005 (Ⅱ)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Since the "Forecasting the World Scene in 2003" and "Forecasting the World Scene in 2004" were published in the last two years, we have received surprisingly hearty repercussions from our readers. Though diversified, most responses are affirmative,appreciative and inspiring. They have strengthened our confidence and brought us pressure too.

  19. Did Raw Material Shortages Decide World War Two? New Data for the Example of Nazi Rubber Supplies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Ferdinand Schmelzing

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite a well-established literature on the economics of World War Two, to this day reliable statistics on overall raw material supplies for Nazi Germany are lacking. The operations of shell companies, the special de jure status of occupied areas, and the Wehrmacht practice to “live off the land” have led to a significant underestimation of de facto resource endowments of the Third Reich. For the example of rubber—one of the prime “scarce war commodities”—this article demonstrates the extent and sources of deficiencies, and offers new data. On this basis, and in contrast to recent arguments that view raw materials as a “basic constraint” of the German economy, it is shown that surprisingly comfortable supplies existed between December 1941 and May 1944, during which Nazi-controlled Europe seemed ready to allow a realization of Hitler’s ‘Lebensraum’ designs. The failure to realize those designs originated in military setbacks—which subsequently impacted economic performance as a secondary effect.

  20. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  1. Risky Business: Development, Communication and Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Inter-seasonal and longer hydroclimatic forecasts have been made increasingly in the last two decades following the increase in ENSO activity since the early 1980s and the success in seasonal ENSO forecasting. Yet, the number of examples of systematic use of these forecasts and their incorporation into water systems operation continue to be few. This may be due in part to the limited skill in such forecasts over much of the world, but is also likely due to the limited evolution of methods and opportunities to "safely" use uncertain forecasts. There has been a trend to rely more on "physically based" rather than "physically informed" empirical forecasts, and this may in part explain the limited success in developing usable products in more locations. Given the limited skill, forecasters have tended to "dumb" down their forecasts - either formally or subjectively shrinking the forecasts towards climatology, or reducing them to tercile forecasts that serve to obscure the potential information in the forecast. Consequently, the potential utility of such forecasts for decision making is compromised. Water system operating rules are often designed to be robust in the face of historical climate variability, and consequently are adapted to the potential conditions that a forecast seeks to inform. In such situations, there is understandable reluctance by managers to use the forecasts as presented, except in special cases where an alternate course of action is pragmatically appealing in any case. In this talk, I review opportunities to present targeted forecasts for use with decision systems that directly address climate risk and the risk induced by unbiased yet uncertain forecasts, focusing especially on extreme events and water allocation in a competitive environment. Examples from Brazil and India covering surface and ground water conjunctive use strategies that could potentially be insured and lead to improvements over the traditional system operation and resource

  2. Forecasting the Polish zloty with non-linear models

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Rubaszek; Pawel Skrzypczynski; Grzegorz Koloch

    2011-01-01

    The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies show that forecasts from a naive random walk tend to be comparable or even better than forecasts from more sophisticated models. In the case of the Polish zloty, the discussion in the literature on ex...

  3. General correcting formula of forecasting?

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

  4. General correcting formula of forecasting?

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

  5. International Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Poggi, Jean-Michel; Brossat, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The chapters in this volume stress the need for advances in theoretical understanding to go hand-in-hand with the widespread practical application of forecasting in industry. Forecasting and time series prediction have enjoyed considerable attention over the last few decades, fostered by impressive advances in observational capabilities and measurement procedures. On June 5-7, 2013, an international Workshop on Industry Practices for FORecasting was held in Paris, France, organized and supported by the OSIRIS Department of Electricité de France Research and Development Division. In keeping with tradition, both theoretical statistical results and practical contributions on this active field of statistical research and on forecasting issues in a rapidly evolving industrial environment are presented. The volume reflects the broad spectrum of the conference, including 16 articles contributed by specialists in various areas. The material compiled is broad in scope and ranges from new findings on forecasting in in...

  6. Price forecast and pricing models on the options exchange for electric power. Information material - documentation; Preisprognose und Preismodelle am Stromterminmarkt. Materialienband

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    The development of the future prices for electric power calls for a continuous analysis of the market. The quantities to be sold are purchased directly on the wholesale-trading market or via models indicating the development of the wholesale trading prices. A professional and risk-adjusted control of the portfolio is the central module in order to get the right position in the increasing competition. Within the options trading, forecasting the electric power prices is of central importance.

  7. Demand Forecasting Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James

    2005-01-01

    Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand fore...

  8. Benchmarking Judgmentally Adjusted Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice, usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights given

  9. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights

  10. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights give

  11. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  12. The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta BARBULESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

  13. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  14. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  15. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-08-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  16. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  17. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

    2017-04-01

    ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

  18. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from...

  19. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. For nine out of ten rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106%. For 72% of rail projects, forecasts are overestimated by more than two-thirds. For 50% of road projects...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  20. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  1. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  2. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauderdale, Jonathan M; Caminade, Cyril; Heath, Andrew E; Jones, Anne E; MacLeod, David A; Gouda, Krushna C; Murty, Upadhyayula Suryanarayana; Goswami, Prashant; Mutheneni, Srinivasa R; Morse, Andrew P

    2014-08-10

    Malaria presents public health challenge despite extensive intervention campaigns. A 30-year hindcast of the climatic suitability for malaria transmission in India is presented, using meteorological variables from a state of the art seasonal forecast model to drive a process-based, dynamic disease model. The spatial distribution and seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation from the forecast model are compared to three observationally-based meteorological datasets. These time series are then used to drive the disease model, producing a simulated forecast of malaria and three synthetic malaria time series that are qualitatively compared to contemporary and pre-intervention malaria estimates. The area under the Relative Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve is calculated as a quantitative metric of forecast skill, comparing the forecast to the meteorologically-driven synthetic malaria time series. The forecast shows probabilistic skill in predicting the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum incidence when compared to the simulated meteorologically-driven malaria time series, particularly where modelled incidence shows high seasonal and interannual variability such as in Orissa, West Bengal, and Jharkhand (North-east India), and Gujarat, Rajastan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra (North-west India). Focusing on these two regions, the malaria forecast is able to distinguish between years of "high", "above average" and "low" malaria incidence in the peak malaria transmission seasons, with more than 70% sensitivity and a statistically significant area under the ROC curve. These results are encouraging given that the three month forecast lead time used is well in excess of the target for early warning systems adopted by the World Health Organization. This approach could form the basis of an operational system to identify the probability of regional malaria epidemics, allowing advanced and targeted allocation of resources for combatting malaria in India.

  3. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  4. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  5. Optimization of Material Requirement Forecast Based on Dynamic Enterprise Modeling%基于动态企业建模的物料需求预测优化研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    裴庆利

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a new dynamic forecast method and a new management model of material requirement was proposed, which was based on advanced information technologies like CC(cloud computing), IOT(Internet of things), big data and DEM(dynamic enterprise modeling).%本文提出了一种基于云计算、物联网、大数据等信息技术的物料需求预测优化方案,深度优化了传统的物料需求获取方式,并提出了一种基于动态企业建模的管理模式.

  6. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2015-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics."" -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both

  7. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...... evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time.We also found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to less accurate forecasts....

  8. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  9. Forecasting with Colonel Blotto

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, R.J.A.P.; Wolk, K.L.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we design and test a competitive forecasting mechanism based on the Colonel Blotto game. In the game, forecasters allocate a fixed number of resources to different 'battlefields'. Each field is realized with a probability that is determined by a stochastic process. Subjects learn about

  10. Housing price forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2012-01-01

    We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We …nd that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the mo...

  11. Congressional Election Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Rice, Tom W.

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the growing literature on the forecasting of elections, providing an example in the form of 1988 congressional election predictions. Briefly discusses the history of election outcome prediction and outlines two scientific forecasting models which, the authors state, are appropriate for use in the classroom. (GEA)

  12. Earthquake forecast enrichment scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Smyth

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP is a global project aimed at testing earthquake forecast models in a fair environment. Various metrics are currently used to evaluate the submitted forecasts. However, the CSEP still lacks easily understandable metrics with which to rank the universal performance of the forecast models. In this research, we modify a well-known and respected metric from another statistical field, bioinformatics, to make it suitable for evaluating earthquake forecasts, such as those submitted to the CSEP initiative. The metric, originally called a gene-set enrichment score, is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Our modified metric assesses if, over a certain time period, the forecast values at locations where earthquakes have occurred are significantly increased compared to the values for all locations where earthquakes did not occur. Permutation testing allows for a significance value to be placed upon the score. Unlike the metrics currently employed by the CSEP, the score places no assumption on the distribution of earthquake occurrence nor requires an arbitrary reference forecast. In this research, we apply the modified metric to simulated data and real forecast data to show it is a powerful and robust technique, capable of ranking competing earthquake forecasts.

  13. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  14. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Qua

  15. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  16. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  17. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  18. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  19. Analysis and Forecast of Maintenance Materials and Parts of Meteorological and Hydrological Equipment Consumption Based on Gompertz Curve%基于Gompertz的气象水文装备维修器材消耗量分析与预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    沈永伟

    2011-01-01

    利用由Gompertz曲线推导出的生命周期曲线建立了气象水文装备维修器材消耗-时间模型.计算表明,由Gompertz曲线推导出的生命周期曲线可以较好地反映气象水文装备维修器材消耗量与时间之间的关系,所建模型的预测结果也较好,具有较高的实用性,为探索气象水文装备维修器材消耗规律提供了一种简单有效的科学方法.%Maintenance materials and parts consumption-time model of meteorological and hydrological equipment was established using the life cycle curve deducted from Gompertz curve. Computation results showed that the life cycle curve can better reflect the relationship between maintenance materials and parts consumption of meteorological and hydrological equipment and time; the forecasting results obtained from the model are preferable; the model has higher practicability. The purpose was to provide a valid and scientific approach for investigating consumption rule of maintenance materials and parts of meteorological and hydrological equipment.

  20. Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Fu Wu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Time series prediction has become more popular in various kinds of applications such as weather prediction, control engineering, financial analysis, industrial monitoring, etc. To deal with real-world problems, we are often faced with missing values in the data due to sensor malfunctions or human errors. Traditionally, the missing values are simply omitted or replaced by means of imputation methods. However, omitting those missing values may cause temporal discontinuity. Imputation methods, on the other hand, may alter the original time series. In this study, we propose a novel forecasting method based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM. We employ the input patterns with the temporal information which is defined as local time index (LTI. Time series data as well as local time indexes are fed to LSSVM for doing forecasting without imputation. We compare the forecasting performance of our method with other imputation methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method is promising and is worth further investigations.

  1. Flood forecasting for River Mekong with data-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahzad, Khurram M.; Plate, Erich J.

    2014-09-01

    In many regions of the world, the task of flood forecasting is made difficult because only a limited database is available for generating a suitable forecast model. This paper demonstrates that in such cases parsimonious data-based hydrological models for flood forecasting can be developed if the special conditions of climate and topography are used to advantage. As an example, the middle reach of River Mekong in South East Asia is considered, where a database of discharges from seven gaging stations on the river and 31 rainfall stations on the subcatchments between gaging stations is available for model calibration. Special conditions existing for River Mekong are identified and used in developing first a network connecting all discharge gages and then models for forecasting discharge increments between gaging stations. Our final forecast model (Model 3) is a linear combination of two structurally different basic models: a model (Model 1) using linear regressions for forecasting discharge increments, and a model (Model 2) using rainfall-runoff models. Although the model based on linear regressions works reasonably well for short times, better results are obtained with rainfall-runoff modeling. However, forecast accuracy of Model 2 is limited by the quality of rainfall forecasts. For best results, both models are combined by taking weighted averages to form Model 3. Model quality is assessed by means of both persistence index PI and standard deviation of forecast error.

  2. New product forecasting with limited or no data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismai, Zuhaimy; Abu, Noratikah; Sufahani, Suliadi

    2016-10-01

    In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecasting is valuable for decision making, this paper presents forecasting of new product or new technologies using aggregate diffusion models and modified Bass Model. A newly launched Proton car and its penetration was chosen to demonstrate the possibility of forecasting sales demand where there is limited or no data available. The model was developed to forecast diffusion of new vehicle or an innovation in the Malaysian society. It is to represent the level of spread on the new vehicle among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new product. This model will forecast the car sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed diffusion model and numerical calculation shows that the model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of the new vehicle. The results reveal that newly developed modified Bass diffusion of demand function has significantly contributed for forecasting the diffusion of new Proton car or new product.

  3. Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

    2006-12-01

    While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40

  4. Searching the World Wide Web: How To Find the Material You Want on the Multimedia Pages of the Internet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Mark

    1997-01-01

    Highlights some popular search engines and presents guidelines on making queries, narrowing a search, using quotation marks and how and when to used advanced searches. Discusses special search tools for World Wide Web and CD-ROM products and homework assistance software. Lists the network locations of five popular search engines. (AEF)

  5. "We want the world and we want it now": Materialism, time perspectives and problem spending tendency of Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Lisbeth; Wu, Anise M S; Lao, Angie K P; Lam, Kerwin I N

    2016-10-06

    Chinese consumers' spending has been expanding rapidly in the past decade, and along with it household and credit card debt. The present research collected evidence to triangulate the contention that materialism is positively related with Chinese's problem spending tendency (PST), and that present-time-perspective (PTP) and future-time perspectives (FTP) interact systematically with materialism to affect PST. A survey of the general population in Macao, China (Study 1; N = 239) confirmed that materialism was positively correlated with PST. An interaction between materialism and PTP intensified the relationship, whereas an interaction with FTP weakened the relationship. Another survey with a sample of university students (Study 2; N = 223) again found positive relationships among PST, materialism, and PTP, as measured by temporal discount rate. But further exploration showed that PST was only related with temporal discounting among high materialists, but not among low materialists. Study 3 experimentally examined the causal effects of materialism and FTP on PST. When being primed of an orientation towards materialism (n = 33), the participants' planned consumption doubled that of the control group (n = 31). A FTP prime interacted with materialism prime and put a "damper" on participants' planned spending (n = 29), compared to their counterparts who were not primed of such a time perspective. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

  6. Combining forecasts in short term load forecasting: Empirical analysis and identification of robust forecaster

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    YOGESH K BICHPURIYA; S A SOMAN; A SUBRAMANYAM

    2016-10-01

    We present an empirical analysis to show that combination of short term load forecasts leads to better accuracy. We also discuss other aspects of combination, i.e.,distribution of weights, effect of variation in the historical window and distribution of forecast errors. The distribution of forecast errors is analyzed in order to get a robust forecast. We define a robust forecaster as one which has consistency in forecast accuracy, lesser shocks (outliers) and lower standard deviation in the distribution of forecast errors. We propose a composite ranking (CRank) scheme based on a composite score which considers three performance measures—standard deviation, kurtosis of distribution of forecast errors and accuracy of forecasts. The CRank helps in identification of a robust forecasts given a choice of individual and combined forecaster. The empirical analysis has been done with the real life data sets of two distribution companies in India.

  7. Prospect on the World Trend 2005 (I)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Since the """"Forecasting the World Scene in 2003"""" and"""" Forecasting the World Scene in 2004"""" were published in the last two years, we have received surprisingly hearty repercussions from our readers. Though diversified, most responses are affirmative, appreciative and inspiring. They have strengthened our confidence and brought us pressure too.

  8. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  9. Forecasting for dynamic line rating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michiorri, Andrea; Nguyen, Huu-Minh; Alessandrini, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    . In order to facilitate the integration of DLR into power system operations, research has been launched into DLR forecasting, following a similar avenue to IRS production forecasting, i.e. based on a mix of statistical methods and meteorological forecasts. The development of reliable DLR forecasts...

  10. Too Many, Too Few, or Just Right? Making Sense Of Conflicting RN Supply and Demand Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spetz, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of future supply and demand of health professionals are tools to guide policy, not a final statement about how the world will be in the future. Recent forecasts of RN supply and demand vary widely and are incredibly confusing for nurse leaders, nurse educators, and policymakers. To effectively incorporate forecasts into policy and planning, one must understand the structure of the forecasts and underlying assumptions. One should treat all forecasts cautiously, and use them as guides to policy rather than definitive future outcomes.

  11. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  12. Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crow, R.T.

    1980-05-01

    Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also related to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)

  13. Intelligent energy demand forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Wei-Chiang

    2013-01-01

    This book offers approaches and methods to calculate optimal electric energy allocation, using evolutionary algorithms and intelligent analytical tools to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting. Focuses on improving the drawbacks of existing algorithms.

  14. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  15. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    in the financial forecasts on which they base investment decisions they may end up losing money as a consequence of biased forecasts. Thus, relying primarily on decision theories such as social comparison theory and theories on confirmation bias this thesis investigates how and why pronounced biases in financial......This thesis is broadly concentrated on decision making under uncertainty. It seeks to investigate how agents in financial markets make decisions at the individual level and how these decisions can sometimes be affected by personal traits and cognitive biases rather than being perfectly rational....... The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...

  16. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schaake

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004. The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved.

    Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods.

    The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other

  17. Interval forecasts of a novelty hybrid model for wind speeds

    OpenAIRE

    Shanshan Qin; Feng Liu; Jianzhou Wang; Yiliao Song

    2015-01-01

    The utilization of wind energy, as a booming technology in the field of renewable energies, has been highly regarded around the world. Quantification of uncertainties associated with accurate wind speed forecasts is essential for regulating wind power generation and integration. However, it remains difficult work primarily due to the stochastic and nonlinear characteristics of wind speed series. Traditional models for wind speed forecasting mostly focus on generating certain predictive values...

  18. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  19. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  20. An overview of health forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  1. Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Using forecasts of exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso against the US dollar, we analyze the symmetry of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. Symmetry of the loss function can be rejected for some forecasters but not all. Even...... when allowing for asymmetric loss functions, the predictions of some forecasters do not fit the traditional definition of rational forecasts. We interpret our results in terms of recent research on forecaster (anti-)herding....

  2. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrence, Kenneth D

    2011-01-01

    The topics within Advances in Business and Management Forecasting will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models.

  3. Relations of alternativeness in the fiction world picture of the detective (on the material of novels by P.Cornwell

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya G. Sklyarova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the role of alternative in modelling the world picture in P. Cornwell’s detective novels «All That Remains», «The Body of Evidence», «Postmortem». Results of the research implying distributional and contextual methods of analysis testify that alternative relations, complicated by incremental meaning of insufficient knowledge and correction serve for reconstruction of the investigation, crime scenes, criminal’s personality and various details, essential for solving the crime. They can occur in the inner represented speech of the main character, the medical examiner Kay Scarpetta and in her dialogues with the investigators. Constructions of alternative semantics, used for explanation, contain specific terms, jargonisms and their definitions, which helps to introduce to the reader the realities of medical examiner’s and investigator’s routine work. Parts of the sentence or separate sentences, connected by the disjunctive conjunctions, contain words relating to criminology and forensic medicine, which contributes to the creation of the atmosphere of the detective novel. The research confirms once again the fact that the use of conjunctions of alternative semantics in definite contextual environment brings about the actualization of certain types of alternative relations which reflect such fragments of individual world picture that seem significant in terms of the content of fiction work.

  4. Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Optimum Production Forecast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    Keywords: production model, inventory management, multivariate time series ... regard when companies over stock raw materials inventory as a result of .... Error Analysis for Forecasts of 2008-2014 to Establish Model out of. Control.

  5. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olascoaga, María J.; Haller, George

    2012-01-01

    The lack of reliable forecasts for the spread of oceanic and atmospheric contamination hinders the effective protection of the ecosystem, society, and the economy from the fallouts of environmental disasters. The consequences can be dire, as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in environmental contamination patterns, such as oil spills in the ocean and ash clouds in the atmosphere. Our approach is based on new mathematical results on the objective (frame-independent) identification of key material surfaces that drive tracer mixing in unsteady, finite-time flow data. Some of these material surfaces, known as Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), turn out to admit highly attracting cores that lead to inevitable material instabilities even under future uncertainties or unexpected perturbations to the observed flow. These LCS cores have the potential to forecast imminent shape changes in the contamination pattern, even before the instability builds up and brings large masses of water or air into motion. Exploiting this potential, the LCS-core analysis developed here provides a model-independent forecasting scheme that relies only on already observed or validated flow velocities at the time the prediction is made. We use this methodology to obtain high-precision forecasts of two major instabilities that occurred in the shape of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. This is achieved using simulated surface currents preceding the prediction times and assuming that the oil behaves as a passive tracer. PMID:22411824

  6. Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

    2016-07-01

    Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.

  7. Probability Forecast of Regional Landslide Based on Numerical Weather Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Kechang; WEI Fangqiang; CUI Peng; HU Kaiheng; XU Jing; ZHANG Guoping; BI Baogui

    2006-01-01

    The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Forecast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.

  8. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  9. Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging on sister forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Bidong Liu; Jakub Nowotarski; Tao Hong; Rafal Weron

    2015-01-01

    Majority of the load forecasting literature has been on point forecasting, which provides the expected value for each step throughout the forecast horizon. In the smart grid era, the electricity demand is more active and less predictable than ever before. As a result, probabilistic load forecasting, which provides additional information on the variability and uncertainty of future load values, is becoming of great importance to power systems planning and operations. This paper proposes a prac...

  10. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  11. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  12. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  13. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    M S Sridhar

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  14. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  15. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details on the asp......The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  16. Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies; National Research Council

    ...) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact...

  17. Forecast of technological development in ore mining branches on basis of modernization of technique and technology of mining practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandr Ivanovich Tatarkin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Pro forma data for exploration of mineral raw material base of some territories Ural regions are given. Perspective trajectories of development of mineral raw complex of federal subjects Russia’s are characterized. On this basis are highlighted groups of region — saving, reducing, raising the level of raw specialization or diversifying own economy. Peculiarities of forecasting technological development in ore mining branches in the period of planned economy of the USSR are illustrated. Indexes of successfully working iron-ore open casts are given. Theraise of internal Russian demand on raw is grounded, for which satisfaction are needed:corresponding tax policy for innovative production, corporate innovative policy, creating fund of supporting ore mining, commercialization of scientific products and working out rules in the sphere of scientific and technical progress. Peculiarities of technological development of ore mining branches of industry are emphasized: necessity of modernization of enterprises and exploration of deposits in regions with not enough developed infrastructure and opportunity of using new system approach by forecasting. Thestages ofeffectiveexploration of deposits and the parameters of developing ore mining enterprises arefound out. Components of forecast of technological development are analyzed. World tendencies of developing ore mining industry and basic directions of forecast of developing ore mining branches are given. New effective technologies being used in the ore mining are analyzed in detail.

  18. A Forecasting Decision Support System

    OpenAIRE

    Sayed, Hanaa E.; Hossam A. Gabbar; Fouad, Soheir A.; Ahmed, Khalil M.; Miyazaki, Shigeji

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays forecasting is needed in many fields such as weather forecasting, population estimation, industry demand forecasting, and many others. As complexity and factors increase, it becomes impossible for a human being to do the prediction operation without support of computer system. A Decision support system is needed to model all demand factors and combine with expert opinions to enhance forecasting accuracy. In this research work, we present a decision support system using winters', simp...

  19. IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBALIZATION ON THE WORLD ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niculcea Silviu Petrisor

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the issues of maximum interes to our century is the analysis of implications of globalization on the world economy and this proves to be even more important now in the middle of financial crisis. Forecasts from the World Bank are very optimistic o

  20. The categories of the lyrical character and the material world in the Joseph Brodsky’s love poetry (the collection “The new stanzas to Augusta”: the interaction features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayramova Karina Arturovna

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the problem of realization of the category of lyrical character in the Joseph Brodsky’s love poetry. The aspiration to characterize the lyrical character through details of the material world becomes the feature of the poet’s artistic worldview when the world of things symbolizes both emotional experiences of the character and his philosophy of creation. The vulnerability and finiteness of the material world in the late lyrics associate an inevitable end of physical existence of the character, but it consolidates the idea of creative immortality of love feeling.

  1. COMPARATIVE STUDY OF PEDAGOGICAL FORECASTING GENESIS IN RUSSIAN AND POLISH PEDAGOGICAL EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Fedorovna Matuszak (Prisyazhnaya

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the genesis of pedagogical forecasting in Russia and Poland in the context of the development of general forecasting theory mainly with the emphasis on pedagogical education. The periods of forecasting theory development (implicit, explicit, institutional, global are presented. The content of each period viewing Russian and Polish education is described. In the implicit period the first attempts are made to predict educational issues. During the explicit period pedagogical forecasting obtains methodology of research. In the institutional period pedagogical forecasting from the sphere of state planning becomes the activity necessary for all the participants of teaching and learning. The global period envi-sages implementing pedagogical forecasting theory to fulfill the tasks of modern education, e.g. doing international projects. The tasks of pedagogical forecasting in the global world include further convergence of educational systems of various countries.The purpose is to determine and describe the henesis of pedagogical forecasting in Russia and Polish pedagogical education in the context of the development of general forecasting theory.Methodology. To identify the periods theoretical methods (historical and analytical me-thod, comparative analysis, theoretical and methodological analysis, synthesis, generalization are used.The results of the research include specifying the periods of pedagogical prognostication as well as the tasks of pedagogical forecasting in the global world in Russian and Polish Universities.Practical implications of the research are of interest to educators of all levels, especially the ones working in higher pedagogical education.

  2. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2012-01-01

    Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

  3. On forecasting SETAR processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; de Bruin, P.T.

    1998-01-01

    Suppose a time series {Yt} is generated by a first-order stationary self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model with Gaussian innovations. The minimum mean squared error h-step ahead forecast ~(h)=E[Yt+h]g; s<~t] for h > 2 involves a sequence of complicated numerical integrations and closed

  4. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  5. Reference class forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    Underbudgettering og budgetoverskridelser forekommer i et flertal af større bygge- og anlægsprojekter. Problemet skyldes optimisme og/eller strategisk misinformation i budgetteringsprocessen. Reference class forecasting (RCF) er en prognosemetode, som er udviklet for at reducere eller eliminere...

  6. Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinovic, Iván; Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive lit- erature on analysts, we review the empirical evidenc...

  7. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through be

  8. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through be

  9. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

  10. Skill of a global forecasting system in seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, Naze; Beek, Van Rens; Weerts, Albrecht; Winsemius, Hessel; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this study we assess the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts with the global hydrological forecasting system Flood Early Warning System (FEWS)-World, which has been set up within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme Project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS).

  11. UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

    2009-04-15

    We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

  12. World helicopter market study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, B.; Pearson, R. W.; Greenwood, S. W.; Kaplan, L.

    1978-01-01

    The extent of the threat to the US helicopter industry posed by a determined effort by foreign manufacturers, European companies in particular, to supply their own domestic markets and also to penetrate export markets, including the USA is assessed. Available data on US and world markets for civil and military uses are collated and presented in both graphic and tabular form showing the past history of production and markets and, where forecasts are available, anticipated future trends. The data are discussed on an item-by-item basis and inferences are drawn in as much depth as appears justified.

  13. The Economic Impact of the World Cup

    OpenAIRE

    Stefan Szymanski

    2002-01-01

    The World Cup will be the biggest sporting event of 2002, but the Japanese and Korean governments are also hoping that it will be one of the biggest economic events of the year. Impact studies by respected economic research institutes predict a dramatic boost to GDP in both countries. This paper explains how these forecasts are generated and explains the tendency for such forecasts to be over-optimistic. The paper concludes with some policy recommendations for governments and sporting bodies ...

  14. World law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harold J. Berman

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the world's environment and the protection of universal human rights. World law combines inter-state law with the common law of humanity and the customary law of various world communities.

  15. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...... the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models which are fitted with a computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer...

  16. The Status of Budget Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Williams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias. Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.

  17. Influenza Forecasting in Human Populations: A Scoping Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chitale, Rohit A.; McKenzie, F. Ellis

    2014-01-01

    Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms “influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)”, excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials. PMID:24714027

  18. Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecasting in supply chain planning models

    OpenAIRE

    Fildes, R A; Kingsman, B G

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a framework for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on unit costs and customer service levels in the supply chain, including Material Requirements Planning (MRP) type manufacturing systems. The aim is to overcome the methodological limitations and confusion that has arisen in much earlier research. To illustrate the issues, the problem of estimating the value of improving forecasting accuracy for a manufacturer was simulated. The topic is of pract...

  19. Activities of the Japanese space weather forecast center at Communications Research Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watari, Shinichi; Tomita, Fumihiko

    2002-12-01

    The International Space Environment Service (ISES) is an international organization for space weather forecasts and belongs to the International Union of Radio Science (URSI). There are eleven ISES forecast centers in the world, and Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) runs the Japanese one. We make forecasts on the space environment and deliver them over the phones and through the Internet. Our forecasts could be useful for human activities in space. Currently solar activity is near maximum phase of the solar cycle 23. We report the several large disturbances of space environment occurred in 2001, during which low-latitude auroras were observed several times in Japan.

  20. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.