WorldWideScience

Sample records for material world forecasting

  1. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  2. Forecasting world natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

    2000-01-01

    Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

  3. Computerized early warning tool for material demand forecast

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Wei

    2007-01-01

    One way to manage the material flows in supply chain is based on the purchase orders and the demand forecast for the next company in the chain. ASML in Veldhoven is a world leader in manufacturing lithography systems for the semiconductor industry. Within the company, a SAP system supports the

  4. Mean-term forecast of coke production in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukhmylova, G.S.

    1996-01-01

    The causes of decrease in consumption of metallurgical coke in the world in the ninetieth and at the present time are analyzed. Reduction of reliable coke supply sources to the world market is noted. The data on the coke import and export in the world in 1990-1994 are presented and corresponding forecasts for 2000 and 2005 are given

  5. Wind field forecast for accidental release of radiative materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang Ling; Chen Jiayi; Cai Xuhui

    2003-01-01

    A meso-scale wind field forecast model was designed for emergency environmental assessment in case of accidental release of radiative materials from a nuclear power station. Actual practice of the model showed that it runs fast, has wind field prediction function, and the result given is accurate. With meteorological data collected from weather stations, and pre-treated by a wind field diagnostic model, the initial wind fields at different times were inputted as initial values and assimilation fields for the forecasting model. The model, in turn, worked out to forecast meso-scale wind field of 24 hours in a horizontal domain of 205 km x 205 km. And then, the diagnostic model was employed again with the forecasting data to obtain more detail information of disturbed wind field by local terrain in a smaller domain of 20.5 km x 20.5 km, of which the nuclear power station is at the center. Using observation data in January, April, July and October of 1996 over the area of Hangzhou Bay, wind fields in these 4 months were simulated by different assimilation time and number of the weather stations for a sensitive test. Results indicated that the method used here has increased accuracy of the forecasted wind fields. And incorporating diagnostic method with the wind field forecast model has greatly increased efficiency of the wind field forecast for the smaller domain. This model and scheme have been used in Environmental Consequence Assessment System of Nuclear Accident in Qinshan Area

  6. Study to forecast and determine characteristics of world satellite communications market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filep, R. T.; Schnapf, A.; Fordyce, S. W.

    1983-01-01

    The world commercial communications satellite market during the spring and summer of 1983 was examined and characteristics and forecasts of the market extending to the year 2000 were developed. Past, present and planned satellites were documented in relation to frequencies, procurement and launch dates, costs, transponders, and prime contractor. Characteristics of the market are outlined for the periods 1965 - 1985, 1986 - 1989, and 1990 - 2000. Market share forecasts, discussions of potential competitors in various world markets, and profiles of major communication satellite manufacturing and user countries are documented.

  7. Long-Range Socio-Economic Forecasting of World Development in the Works by IMEMO RAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suslov D. V.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A brief overview is given of papers by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAS on long-term socio-economic forecasting of global development. The forecasting methodology is shown, its capabilities and limitations, as well as the structure, main results and characteristics of the forecasts made by IMEMO RAS since early 2000s. The «Strategic Global Outlook for 2030» has acquired features of an interdisciplinary research, and has been developed based on a system analysis of objective socio-economic indicators, long-term global and regional socio-demographic trends, and expert assessment of the future dynamics of the political situation in individual countries and in intergovernmental relations. This methodology allowed the focus to be placed primarily on the stable trends of development in the world economy and the system of international relations, their actors, structures and institutions

  8. World petroleum refining capacity: Present and forecasted situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tabarelli, D.

    1991-01-01

    World petroleum demand is expected to increase from about 15 million barrels to 80 million after the year 2000. The resulting necessity to increase the currently over-extended global refining capacity will put a significant burden on financial resources within the industry. This article examines the developments, after a decade of restructuring, which have led to the present situation of the petroleum industry described as having greatly improved operational conditions but beset by worrisome problems with regard not only to capacity, but also to the costly constraints being imposed by new air pollution regulations, especially those relevant to desulfurization in refinery processes

  9. Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheze, Benoit; Gastineau, Pascal; Chevallier, Julien

    2011-01-01

    This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted. - Highlights: → Jet fuel demand is forecasted at the worldwide and regional level until 2025. → Regional heterogeneity must be considered when forecasting jet fuel demand. → World air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025. → World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period. → Technological progress will not be enough to decrease the world jet fuel demand.

  10. Getting to grips with election night forecasting: Predicting the unpredictable world of politics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Holloway, Jennifer P

    2009-04-23

    Full Text Available , it is an exhilarating experience being at the IEC's headquarters during the elections. "The whole building is abuzz, with political parties and media representatives all having their own booths and swarming around the floor. We have found that the smaller parties... with. Election night forecasting Predicting the unpredictable world of politics On 22 April 2009, after the voting population has used its right to cast its individual votes in the fourth democratic elections of South Africa, a team...

  11. Analysis and forecast of electrical distribution system materials. Final report. Volume III. Appendix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Love, C G

    1976-08-23

    These appendixes are referenced in Volume II of this report. They contain the detailed electrical distribution equipment requirements and input material requirements forecasts. Forecasts are given for three electric energy usage scenarios. Also included are data on worldwide reserves and demand for 30 raw materials required for the manufacture of electrical distribution equipment.

  12. A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianliang; Feng Lianyong; Zhao Lin; Snowden, Simon; Wang Xu

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers. - Highlights: ► Hubbert model and Generalized Weng model are introduced and compared in this article. ► We conclude each model's characteristic and scopes and conditions of applicable. ► We get the same peak production and time of world's oil by applying two models. ► Multicyclic Generalized Weng model is proven slightly better than Hubbert model.

  13. International wind energy development. World market update 2011. Forecast 2012-2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-03-15

    The World Market Update 2011 is BTM Consult's seventeenth edition of this annual wind energy market report. The report includes more than 80 tables, charts and graphs illustrating global wind market development, as well as a wind market forecast for 2012 - 2016 and predictions for the wind market through 2021. The report delivers several views on the fast-growing wind market, including: 1) Record installation of 41.7 GW. 2) Strong presence of four Chinese wind turbine suppliers in the Top 10 list. 3) China maintains the No. 1 market position in the world, with 17.6 GW of new capacity. 4) Offshore wind is on track for increased contribution to wind power in Europe. 5) Market value will grow from Euro 52.2 billion in 2011 to Euro 86.3 billion in 2016. 6) Direct drive turbines now account for 21.2% of the world's supply of wind power capacity. 7) Wind power will deliver 2.26% of the world's electricity in 2012. 8) Forecasts and predictions to 2021 indicate that wind power can meet 8.0% of the world's consumption of electricity by 2021. International Wind Energy Development - World Update 2011 includes individual country wind market assessments, incentives around the world, and detailed analysis of both the demand and supply sides of the wind market in 2011. This year's report reviews the latest developments in hydraulic drivetrains, identifies the pros and cons, and compares the hydraulic technology to the industry's three currently established drivetrain technologies: conventional gear-, direct and hybrid-drivetrains. (Author)

  14. International wind energy development. World market update 1997. Forecast 1998-2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-03-01

    This is the third issue of the annual World Market Update from BTM Consult ApS, covering the year 1997. All figures in the status part refer to end of the year 1997, the past 3 years development is also assessed and the forecast looks 5 years ahead. The annual installation of new wind power capacity increased by 21% resulting in a cumulative installation by the end of 1997 of 7,636 MW. Approx. 84% of the new capacity (1,566 MW), was installed in Europe emphasizing this region as the leading market regarding utilisation of wind energy. India remains halted (since 1996) and it has been very difficult to get reliable figures from this market. The US market is still very slow, but some very big projects are under construction. The first two years of the five year forecast has been adjusted downwards compared to forecast presented last year. The main reason is due to the economic situation in Asia. The cumulative MW in the five year forecast shows a slight increase compared to last years 5 year forecast, justified by higher expectations to other markets. The surprising pace in the commercialization of MW-turbines and their projected use for offshore applications few years ahead is assessed in the report. A total of 129 turbines of 1-1.65 MW are already in operation - most of them in Germany. On the international arena it is expected, that the wind power development will gain benefits from the Kyoto-Protocol (December 1997) and the 'White Paper' from the EU commission, although it will take some years to transfer these political targets into operational schemes. This report can be found on Internet Web-pages: http://home4.inet.tele.dk/btmcwind/index.html. (EG)

  15. A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maggio, G.; Cacciola, G.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)). Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250-3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3-32.1 Gb/year.

  16. Pop Life, Art in a Material World.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clémence Bonnet

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available « I don’t think myself as evil – just realistic », Andy Warhol« Good business is the best art », légendaire citation d’Andy Warhol, résonne entre les murs de la Tate Modern, digne fil conducteur de l’exposition « Pop Life, Art in a Material World  ». Le Business Art et l’artiste intégrant le commercial à son travail (ne se contentant plus de seulement le commenter réunissent vingt-deux artistes autour de la figure centrale de Warhol, présenté comme le père fondateur de toute cette mouvance p...

  17. A Study on the Determination of the World Crude Oil Price and Methods for Its Forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, J.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    The primary purpose of this report is to provide the groundwork to develop the methods to forecast the world crude oil price. The methodology is used by both literature survey and empirical study. For this purpose, first of all, this report reviewed the present situation and the outlook of the world oil market based on oil demand, supply and prices. This analysis attempted to provide a deeper understanding to support the development of oil forecasting methods. The result of this review, in general, showed that the oil demand will be maintained annually at an average rate of around 2.4% under assumption that oil supply has no problem until 2020. The review showed that crude oil price will be a 3% increasing rate annually in the 1999 real term. This report used the contents of the summary review as reference data in order to link the KEEIOF model. In an effort to further investigate the contents of oil political economy, this report reviewed the articles of political economy about oil industry. It pointed out that the world oil industry is experiencing the change of restructuring oil industry after the Gulf War in 1990. The contents of restructuring oil industry are characterized by the 'open access' to resources not only in the Persian Gulf, but elsewhere in the world as well - especially the Caspian Sea Basin. In addition, the contents showed that the oil industries are shifted from government control to government and industry cooperation after the Gulf War. In order to examine the characters and the problems surrounding oil producing countries, this report described the model of OPEC behavior and strategy of oil management with political and military factors. Among examining the models of OPEC behavior, this report focused on hybrid model to explain OPEC behavior. In reviewing political and religious power structure in the Middle East, the report revealed that US emphasizes the importance of the Middle East for guaranteeing oil security. However, three

  18. Forecasting of Processes in Complex Systems for Real-World Problems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pelikán, Emil

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 6 (2014), s. 567-589 ISSN 1210-0552 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : complex systems * data assimilation * ensemble forecasting * forecasting * global solar radiation * judgmental forecasting * multimodel forecasting * pollution Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.479, year: 2014

  19. International wind energy development. World market update 2002. Forecast 2003-2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    This report highlights the development of the international wind power market during 2002 and the new forecast up to 2007. The data presented includes both supply side and demand side information. With 7,227 MW of new installations the total installed capacity of wind power grew to over 32,000 MW. This is the highest figure ever in a single year. The growth rate of 6% over 2001, however, was the lowest since 1996. In spite of this modest figure, the average growth rate over the past five years (from 1997) has been much higher, at 35.7%, and last year's record growth (2001 over 2000) was 52%. The key features of development during 2002 were: 7,227 MW new installed wind power; cumulative installed capacity by the end of 2002 had reached 32,037 MW, consisting of around 61,500 wind turbines dispersed over more than 40 countries; A major share of new installations took place in Europe, with 85.4% of the total. Germany accounted for 53% of the European total; America fell back form its peak level of 1,745 MW in 2001 to a modest 494 MW in 2002, with the majority installed in the USA; Development in Asia was lower than in 2001; Of the emerging markets in the Far East/Pacific, China and Australia were the only two markets to show growth over 2001; The Top Ten markets in the world are headed by Germany, Spain, Denmark and the USA. Newcomers to the Top Ten markets ranking were Australia and the Netherlands; In terms of cumulative installation, the German market passed the 10,000 MW milestone and is by far the largest market in the world. There were 12,000 MW installed in Germany by end of 2002. Spain became No. 2 with 5,042 MW; Penetration of wind power in the world's electricity supply had reached 0.4% by end of 2002. Ten of the world's roughly 25 suppliers of wind turbines are responsible for more than 90% of total supply in the global market. This trend is continuing, with the Top Ten manufacturers in 2002 delivering 95% of the total record installation. Vestas Wind

  20. Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J

    2016-02-11

    Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world's tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

  1. International wind energy development. World market update 2009. Forecast 2010-2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-03-15

    This is the fifteenth edition of the annual World Market Update produced by BTM Consult ApS, and covers developments in the wind energy sector during 2009. As in previous editions, the report also assesses important changes over the last three years and forecasts progress for five years ahead. The special topic in this year's WMU is an evaluation of the aftermath of the COP-15 climate change negotiations in relation to future wind power development. The global market for wind power not only produced a record for new installations in 2009 of 38 GW installed capacity, it also created a new order in the balance of international wind power. The rapid increase in the rate of installations in both Asia and the US was already clear in 2008; that trend has continued at a faster pace in 2009. By far the largest number of new wind projects were seen in the US and China. Another new reality is that most of the world's manufacturing of wind turbines now takes place in China. As a result three Chinese companies are among the world's top ten turbine manufacturers. At the same time a rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity by European turbine makers has taken place in the US. Europe contributed 28.2% of the newly added capacity - 10,738 MW - taking the continent's total wind power generation capacity to 76,553 MW. The growth in Asia's markets has once again been staggering. With 14,991 MW of new installations, South and East Asia accounted for 39.4% of the global total in 2009. China was the major contributor, with 13,750 MW of new capacity, more than double that installed in 2008. In terms of cumulative installed wind power, the US is still the world leader, with 35,159 MW. China overtook Germany with a margin of less than 50 MW. China now has a total of 25,853 MW, followed by Germany's 25,813 MW. A new world order in wind power has become a reality. The forecast released in this WMU shows an average growth rate of 13.5% for the period 2010

  2. Analysis of forecasting and inventory control of raw material supplies in PT INDAC INT’L

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Riaman; Jabar, D. A.

    2018-03-01

    This study discusses the data forecasting sales of carbon electrodes at PT. INDAC INT L uses winters and double moving average methods, while for predicting the amount of inventory and cost required in ordering raw material of carbon electrode next period using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model. The result of error analysis shows that winters method for next period gives result of MAE, MSE, and MAPE, the winters method is a better forecasting method for forecasting sales of carbon electrode products. So that PT. INDAC INT L is advised to provide products that will be sold following the sales amount by the winters method.

  3. International wind energy development. World market update 1998. Forecast 1999-2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-03-01

    This is the fourth issue of the annual World Market Update from BTM Consult ApS, covering the year 1998. All figures in the status part refer to end of the year 1998, the past 3 years development is also assessed and the forecast looks 5 years ahead. The most significant figures and trends in 1998 were: The marketplace - The annual installation of new wind power capacity increased by 55% resulting in a cumulative installation by the end of 1998 of 10.153 MW. 1.766 MW was installed in Europe and the region is still the leading market regarding utilization of wind energy. The US market took a rapid pace and installed 577 MW during the year. The large Enron Wind Corp has taken the larger part of this market. On the supply side Danish NEG Micon A/S has consolidated the position as being the supplier of the most MW wind capacity in the world and the company has a world market share of 23,5 per cent. The company acquired the Danish Wind World af 1997 A/S which was among the larger companies in 1997. Also the Dutch manufacturer NedWind B.V. was acquired by NEG Micon A/S curing 1998. The group of 'other' manufactureres represents a minor percentage of deliveries than earlier and concentration in the industry seems to continue. The liberalized Energy Market and how to position the industry in this different economic environment will be a challenge for the wind industry way into the next century. In Europe, the European Commission's draft Directive with proposal for an outline of common rules for support of among other renewables wind energy has been set on another route which seems to delay the paper. In the US there are still hopes for a new period with PTC (Production Tax Credit). There are in some States hopes among the wind energy people that the 'Green Market Programs' will play a more dominant role in the future. In Asia the crises seems to halt the wind power development. Forecast and Technical trends - Based on the positive trends in the markets for wind power

  4. International wind energy development. World market update 2012. Forecast 2013-2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-03-15

    The BTM wind report, World Market Update 2012, published by Navigant Research, is the eighteenth edition of this annual wind energy market report. The report includes more than 80 tables, charts and graphs illustrating global wind market development, as well as a wind market forecast for 2013?2017 and highlighted trends for the wind market through 2022. The report delivers several views on the fast?growing wind market, including: 1) More than 285 GW of wind power now installed globally; 2) 45GW of new capacity added in 2012, including 1.1 GW from offshore wind; 3) The United States surpassed China as the largest market in terms of new installations in 2012; 4) Europe lost its position as the largest world region in terms of new installations; 5) Wind installations in the Americas grew by 12.3 percent compared with 2011; 6) Big shake?up in the top ten wind turbine supplier ranking; 7) Strong Chinese presence among top 15 wind owner?operators; 8) Wind market structures continue to evolve; 9) The penetration of wind power in the world's electricity supply has reached 2.62 percent; 10) Offshore wind more than doubled the capacity added in 2011, with more than 4 GW currently under construction. With the addition of 44,951 MW in new installations in 2012, world wind power capacity grew to around 285,700 MW, an increase in the total wind power installation base of 18.6 percent. Market growth year-over-year in 2012, though a modest 7.8 percent, was still higher than in 2011. Average annual growth for the past five years has been 17.8 percent, achieved during the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, with traditionally large markets for wind power in economic recession in America and Europe. The wind power industry continues to demonstrate its ability to rapidly evolve to meet new demands in markets that face a variety of challenges. The focus on product diversification grows with wind turbine vendors designing machines for maximum energy production in low wind speed

  5. International wind energy development. World marked update 1999. Forecast 2000-2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-03-01

    This is the fifth issue of the annual World Market Update by BTM Consult ApS, covering the year 1999. All figures in the status refer to the end of year 1999. It is the last update from the 20th century, in which wind energy developed during the last two decades to become a very serious part of the world electricity supply. As in previous reports, the past 3 years' development in the wind energy sector is assessed, and the forecast looks 5 years ahead. Wind power is the world's fastest growing energy source, with an average annual growth rate of 40 % over the last five years. Wind energy is a clean and abundant energy source, and it is becomming a preferred source of energy not only due to the environmental benefits, but also because it has become increasingly cost competitive in the world energy markets. One of the most significant figures and trends from this fast growing market during 1999 was that the annual installation of new wind power capacity increased by 51 %, resulting in a cumulative installation by the end of 1999 of 13,932 MW. The growth rates in the wind industry can easily be compared to the growth rates in the IT sector, although the growth differ much from country to country. The high growth rates are still very much influenced by political and economical issues, but the continuously improved technology and thus also the redused cost of energy becomes more and more significant, and there are hardly any arguments left why wind energy should not play a very significant role in the electricity supply. Approximately 81 % of the new capacity of 3,922 were installed in Europe, emphasizing that this region is still the major market place. The US market picked up close to the PTC expiry date (Production Tax Credit) on June 30, 1999. In terms of single markets it was, however, the German market which once again took the lead with installed capacity of 1,568 MW. Germany thereby consolidated the position as the leading wind energy country in the world. Spain

  6. International wind energy development. World market update 2010. Forecast 2011-2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-03-15

    This is the sixteenth edition of the annual World Market Update produced by BTM Consult ApS - a part of Navigant Consulting, and covers developments in the wind energy sector during 2010. As in previous editions, the report also assesses important changes over the last three years and forecasts progress for five years ahead. The special topic in this year's WMU is a review of Direct-Drive concept versus traditional Drive Train with gearbox. The global market for wind power produced a record for new installations in 2010 of 39.4 GW installed capacity, however, with a much lower growth rate than in the period 2005 to 2009. The rapid increase in the rate of installations in both Asia and the US was already clear in 2008-09. That trend has continued in China but the US experienced a significant slow-down in 2010. Europe stayed relatively stable - old markets stagnated but new emerging markets grew. Another new reality is that most of the world's manufacturing of wind turbines now takes place in China. Companies producing wind turbines there have experienced an explosive rate of growth. As a result four Chinese companies are among the world's Top Ten turbine manufacturers. An inevitable impact of this shift is that the market shares of the traditional industry leaders from the US and Europe have decreased significantly with Vestas and Siemens as exception in 2010. At the same time a rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity by European turbine makers has taken place in the US. Europe contributed 29.9% of the newly added capacity - 10,920 MW - taking the continent's total wind power generation capacity to 87,565 MW. The growth in Asia's markets has once again been staggering. With 21,130 MW of new installations, South and East Asia accounted for 53.6% of the global total in 2010.China was the major contributor, with 18,928 MW of new capacity, 37% over that of 2009. In terms of cumulative installed wind power, China surpassed the US in 2010, with

  7. International wind energy development. World market update 2006. Forecast 2007-2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-03-01

    The report covers development in the international wind power market during 2006 and the new Forecast until 2011. Furthermore a long term Prediction is made up to 2016. With 15,016 MW of new installations, the total installed capacity of wind power grew to around 74,300 MW. This was an increase in cumulative installation of 25%. Looking at the annual installation of 15,016 MW there was an increase of 30%. This is on top of a 2005 growth of 42%. The key figures for development during 2006 were: a) 15,016 MW of newly installed wind power capacity. b)Cumulative installed capacity by the end of 2006 reached 74,306 MW, consisting of around 10,600 wind turbines dispersed in 36 countries. c) Europe maintained its role as the largest wind power continent. 51% of all new installation in 2006 took place in Europe. d) The Americas had a record year thanks to the development in the US, where 2,454 MW of new capacity was added. The reason is the PTC (Production Tax Credit) in the US market in force again and will be so until end of 2008. The Americas accounted for 23.4% of the world's installation in 2006. e) Asia showed significant growth. Including OECD Pacific, Asia doubled its installation, from 7,890 MW in 2005 to 11.601 MW by the end of 2006. India was by far the leading country, with 1,840 MW of new capacity in 2006. China also showed strong progress, with almost 1,334 MW of new installation. The region as a whole accounted for 24.7% of the year's world wide total. f) Among the Top Ten markets USA maintained its position as largest market in 2006. Germany, the world's largest market for a decade, increased its installation from 2005 to installing 2.233 MW, after three year on decline. It is, however, enough to maintain their position as no. 2 market in the world. France and Portugal showed remarkable growth. Spain is still No.2 market in Europe, with 1,587 MW of new installation. g) Penetration of wind power in the world's electricity supply reached 0.82% by the end of

  8. Proposal of world network on material testing reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takemoto, Noriyuki; Izumo, Hironobu; Hori, Naohiko; Ishitsuka, Etsuo; Ishihara, Masahiro

    2011-01-01

    Establishment of an international cooperation system of worldwide testing reactor network (world network) is proposed in order to achieve efficient facility utilization and provide high quality irradiation data by role sharing of irradiation tests with materials testing reactors in the world. As for the first step, mutual understanding among materials testing reactors is thought to be necessary. From this point, an international symposium on materials testing reactors (ISMTR) was held to construct the world network from 2008, and a common understanding of world network has begun to be shared. (author)

  9. Ecology of Access to Educational Material in Developing World ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Ecology of Access to Educational Material in Developing World Universities. The longstanding crisis of the developing world library is coming to an end, but not in the way most observers anticipated. Resource scarcity, limited holdings and poor infrastructure remain the norm. Debates of access to print materials continue to ...

  10. Does an inter-flaw length control the accuracy of rupture forecasting in geological materials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.; Lavallée, Yan; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2017-10-01

    Multi-scale failure of porous materials is an important phenomenon in nature and in material physics - from controlled laboratory tests to rockbursts, landslides, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. A key unsolved research question is how to accurately forecast the time of system-sized catastrophic failure, based on observations of precursory events such as acoustic emissions (AE) in laboratory samples, or, on a larger scale, small earthquakes. Until now, the length scale associated with precursory events has not been well quantified, resulting in forecasting tools that are often unreliable. Here we test the hypothesis that the accuracy of the forecast failure time depends on the inter-flaw distance in the starting material. We use new experimental datasets for the deformation of porous materials to infer the critical crack length at failure from a static damage mechanics model. The style of acceleration of AE rate prior to failure, and the accuracy of forecast failure time, both depend on whether the cracks can span the inter-flaw length or not. A smooth inverse power-law acceleration of AE rate to failure, and an accurate forecast, occurs when the cracks are sufficiently long to bridge pore spaces. When this is not the case, the predicted failure time is much less accurate and failure is preceded by an exponential AE rate trend. Finally, we provide a quantitative and pragmatic correction for the systematic error in the forecast failure time, valid for structurally isotropic porous materials, which could be tested against larger-scale natural failure events, with suitable scaling for the relevant inter-flaw distances.

  11. The cultural effects of job mobility and the belief in a fixed world: evidence from performance forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing; Chiu, Chi-yue; Chan, S Fiona

    2009-11-01

    Results from 5 studies illustrate how perception of and experiences with low job mobility can shape culture-characteristic pattern of judgments and behaviors. Although both Americans and some Asian groups (e.g., Chinese, Asian Americans) consider having successful practitioners' personality traits (role personalities) to be important to job performance, the Asian groups place heavier emphasis on possessing role personalities when making performance forecast than do Americans (Studies 1-3). Moreover, even among Americans, a brief subjective experience with low job mobility can increase the perceived importance of possessing role personalities in performance forecast (Study 4), and a brief direct experience with low job mobility can increase job applicants' tendency to claim possession of role personality traits in job applications (Study 5). Furthermore, the belief in a fixed world mediates the relationship between perception of low job mobility and perceived importance of possessing role personalities in performance forecast (Study 2).

  12. Materials aspects of world energy needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-01-01

    Plenary session papers presented by participants from both developed and developing countries contributed to the information base on materials and energy outlook, international cooperation, economic aspects, and environmental considerations and established the theme for the subsequent workshop sessions. Workshops on ten major aspects of materials-energy interrelationships provided the opportunity of open and informal discussion of critical issues in each area and the development of reasonable consensus on problems and potential solutions. A separate abstract for each of the 10 plenary-session papers, the 10 workshop reports, and the 4 selected papers will appear in Energy Research Abstracts (ERA) and Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis (EAPA). The brief issue summaries (preprints) will appear individually (total of 75) only in the DOE Energy Data Base.

  13. Hunger: The World Food Crisis. An NSTA Environmental Materials Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Kathryn Mervine

    This document provides a materials guide containing annotated bibliographies of literature for teachers and students, a film guide, and a curriculum materials guide for educational sources relating to hunger, food, and the world food crisis. Materials span the range from pre-school to grade 12. (SL)

  14. Forecast of Piezoelectric Properties of Crystalline Materials from First Principles Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Yanqing; Shi Erwei; Chen Jianjun; Zhang Tao; Song Lixin

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, forecast of piezoelectric tensors are presented. Piezo crystals including quartz, quartz-like crystals, known and novel crystals of langasite-type structure are treated with density-functional perturb theory (DFPT) using plane-wave pseudopotentials method, within the local density approximation (LDA) to the exchange-correlation functional. Compared with experimental results, the ab initio calculation results have quantitative or semi-quantitative accuracy. It is shown that first principles calculation opens a door to the search and design of new piezoelectric material. Further application of first principles calculation to forecast the whole piezoelectric properties are also discussed

  15. International wind energy development. World market update 2000. Forecast 2001-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-03-01

    most significant technological trend in the market is the continuing upscaling of macines. From year 2000 the average size of WTGs is 800 kW (in 1999: 729 kW). A second trend is the implementation of more advanced control and power regulation systems, particularly on the MW machines. Another trend is the increased focus on 'direct drive' machines, even though it is not yet reflected in commercial sales other than those from Enercon and Lagerwey. Several new concepts have been announced during the year 2000. It is likely that within few years we will see commercial direct drive machines from other companies. Offshore development - demonstrated in two projects: Utgrunden, 10 MW (Sweden) and Middelgrunden, 40 MW (Denmark) - indicates that the 1.5 - 2.0 MW turbines are used for offshore. Regarding foundations, it seems that the monopile concept will be the preferred option. The special topic in this World Market Update enlightens status and perspectives of the offshore development to take off 2-5 years ahead. The new forecast released in this WMU shows an average growth rate of 17.6% for the period 2001-2005. The main trends reflected in this year's forecast are: 1) A moderate growth in Europe until offshore really takes off. It will start in Denmark in 2002 and in Germany from 2005. Germany is the market where the largest projects are being planned. 2) There is still uncertainty about the US situation beyond 2001 - including the question as to how the US government will contribute to the 'climate change' issue. 3) A steady growth in Asia, but not fast enough to meet future needs. More efficient procedures in the governments administration of the renewable field may speed up the development in China and India. 4) Another topic affecting the growth is the industry's ability to meet the future demand. It is worth noting, that the present industry has gone through two years with growth rates of + 50%, and the whole supply chain has also to be turned in for this high level of

  16. U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

    OpenAIRE

    Isengildina-Massa, Olga; MacDonald, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze structural changes that took place in the cotton industry in recent years and develop a statistical model that reflects the current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in 79 years. In addition, systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review...

  17. Quantum Organizational World-Making through Material Emobided Storytelling Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svane, Marita

    2014-01-01

    -making phenomena. In this article, organizational development and change are viewed as world-making phenomena that emerge from material, embodied, storytelling practices and are dissipated in the organization through the living story web in fractal, rhizomatic organizing processes. Diffractively reading pri......-marily Boje, Barad, Ingold, Heidegger, Bakhtin, and Deleuze and Guattari through each other, a quantum storytelling framework is proposed for better understanding organizing processes towards the future. Special attention is paid to the prospective, sense-shaping role of agential rhizomatic antenarratives...

  18. The world's nuclear future - built on material success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ion, Sue

    2010-07-01

    In our energy hungry world of the twenty-first century, the future of electricity generation must meet the twin challenges of security of supply and reduced carbon emissions. The expectations for nuclear power programmes to play a part in delivering success on both counts, grows ever higher. The nuclear industry is poised on a renaissance likely to dwarf the heady days of the 1960s and early 1970s. Global supply chain and project management challenges abound, now just as then. The science and engineering of materials will be key to the successful deployment and operation of a new generation of reactor systems and their associated fuel cycles. Understanding and predicting materials performance will be key to achieving life extension of existing assets and underpinning waste disposal options, as well as giving confidence to the designers, their financial backers and governments across the globe, that the next generation of reactors will deliver their full potential.

  19. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  20. Radioactivity of building materials in our country and the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batkova, L.

    2007-01-01

    The problem of radiation load of the population in recent years in the world, but also in Slovakia, is a topic of increasing interest. The reason is significant radiation exposure which is caused by natural or artificial sources of ionizing radiation. The most serious of natural resources is radon. Studies point to the fact that, together with its transformation products it poses a plumbless risk for developing of lung cancer. As part of measures to reduce the radiation load of the population the content of radionuclides in materials and raw materials used in construction is being monitored. The aim is to regulate the size of the exposure in the accommodation space and thus eliminate the health risks that result in exposure of radon. The author tried to make an overview of measured concentrations of natural radionuclides in building materials used in Slovakia and other countries. The author also provides a picture of radiation load on the population of the Czech Republic and Slovakia and gives an overview of legal and legislative standards based on international standards and requirements. (author)

  1. International wind energy development. World market update 2001. Forecast 2002-2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-03-01

    In the year 2001, the wind power development took another major step forward. Installed capacity set a new record with the addition of 6,824 MW of new generating capacity. This is 2,329 MW more than the record set in year 2000. Growth in new capacity is up from 15% in year 2000 to 52% in 2001. This confirmed that the trend of wind energy being the preferred technology over other technologies for new generating capacity is continuing. Europe is the leading region for wind power. Of the new capacity added in 2001, 4,527 MW was installed in Europe. Germany once more shows this country's potential as the single most active market with the installation of 2,627 MW in new capacity, nearly 1,000 MW more than in the previous year. Germany consolidated its position as the world's leading developer of wind energy. The market in the US is once again the second largest wind energy market ahead of Spain. The expiration of the PTC at the end of the year 2001 gave some rush in the installation at the end of the year. The Danish market is on a deroute and lost pace completely in a changed political climate which means that the development of windpower is slowing down. Denmark has a very high penetration of windpower. On the supplier side Vestas Wind Systems A/S maintained its position as being the world's largest manufacturer of wind turbines. Vestas Wind Systems is now followed by Enercon GmbH. Without counting the US market figures Vestas Wind Systems A/S and Enercon has become the very closed in terms of sold MW. In the 3rd place is the Danish company NEG Micon A/S. Newcomers in the Top Ten list are Mitsubishi (JP) and REpower (GE). The most significant technological trend in the market is the continuing upscaling of machines. From year 2001 the average size of WTGs is 915 kW (in 2000: 800kW). In the very near future there will be erected wind turbines mainly dedicated for the upcoming offshore market of 4.5-5.0 MW. On Offshore there is only 10 MW installed during the year 2001

  2. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R Oakleaf

    Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  3. International wind energy development. World market update 1996. Forecast 1997-2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    It is intended topublish and update this report `International Wind Power Development - Market Update 1996` every year in March. The latest issue was published in December of 1995 by BTM Consult ApS. Market data for demand side does normally, where it has been possible, only include installed wind turbines which has been connected to the grid during 1996. Supply side data is based on collected information (reference lists) from the 12-15 largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world. Due to these circumstances there are some conflicts between demand side and supply side data. Another important factor is that all wind turbine manufacturers do not use the same methodology when they are making their reference lists. Some manufacturers include only installed and operating wind turbines, while others include all units shipped from the factory. This is another conflict that might cause some differences in the data. Lately another new issue has been added to the list of uncertain factors, which is: is a Nordex Balcke-Duerr wind turbine Danish or German? And is a Gamesa Eolica wind turbine Danish or Spanish? etc. To minimize annual variations, this report includes the last 3 years data for the largest markets and wind turbine manufacturers. The prognosis includes data for the next 5 years until the year 2001, and an estimate has also been included for development until the year 2005. This version of the report can be found on internet web-pages: http://home4.inet.tele.dk/btmcwind/index.html. (EG)

  4. International wind energy development. World market update 1996. Forecast 1997-2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-03-01

    It is intended topublish and update this report 'International Wind Power Development - Market Update 1996' every year in March. The latest issue was published in December of 1995 by BTM Consult ApS. Market data for demand side does normally, where it has been possible, only include installed wind turbines which has been connected to the grid during 1996. Supply side data is based on collected information (reference lists) from the 12-15 largest wind turbine manufacturers in the world. Due to these circumstances there are some conflicts between demand side and supply side data. Another important factor is that all wind turbine manufacturers do not use the same methodology when they are making their reference lists. Some manufacturers include only installed and operating wind turbines, while others include all units shipped from the factory. This is another conflict that might cause some differences in the data. Lately another new issue has been added to the list of uncertain factors, which is: is a Nordex Balcke-Duerr wind turbine Danish or German? And is a Gamesa Eolica wind turbine Danish or Spanish? etc. To minimize annual variations, this report includes the last 3 years data for the largest markets and wind turbine manufacturers. The prognosis includes data for the next 5 years until the year 2001, and an estimate has also been included for development until the year 2005. This version of the report can be found on internet web-pages: http://home4.inet.tele.dk/btmcwind/index.html. (EG)

  5. World Overview of Packaging Materials for Food Based on Zeolite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondarenko Evgeniya

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies the world experience of using zeolites in manufacturing food packaging materials with a view to extend food storage. Antimicrobial properties of zeolites are confirmed by the results of the re-search of antifungal mixture for prolongation of food products shelf life. They correlate with the experience of using the mixture in agriculture as a fungicide and preservative for corn, root crops, sunflower, silage. The ability of zeolites to inactivate pathogens and accelerate excretion of metabolic products from the human body as well as products of disturbed metabolism and toxic compounds derived from the environment was considered. In medicine almost all zeolites are used as highly effective sorbents, and it is confirmed by the positive results of their use in the treatment of poisoning and other intoxications, and for their prevention. Thus, they can be used as raw materials in the development of food with detoxicative properties for people who face food, environmental or occupational poisoning. Bentonite (representative of zeolites, established to meet FDA requirements to contact with food, is included into the List of food additives (E 558. It has the official permission to be used in the food industry and can be used in the development of food products for special purposes.

  6. American Material Culture: Investigating a World War II Trash Dump

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Julie Braun

    2005-10-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory: An Historical Trash Trove Historians and archaeologists love trash, the older the better. Sometimes these researchers find their passion in unexpected places. In this presentation, the treasures found in a large historic dump that lies relatively untouched in the middle of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will be described. The U.S. military used the central portion of the INL as one of only six naval proving grounds during World War II. They dumped trash in dry irrigation canals during and after their wartime activities and shortly before the federal government designated this arid and desolate place as the nation’s nuclear reactor testing station in 1949. When read critically and combined with memories and photographs, the 60-year old trash provides a glimpse into 1940s’ culture and the everyday lives of ordinary people who lived and worked during this time on Idaho’s desert. Thanks to priceless stories, hours of research, and the ability to read the language of historic artifacts, the dump was turned from just another trash heap into a treasure trove of 1940s memorabilia. Such studies of American material culture serve to fire our imaginations, enrich our understanding of past practices, and humanize history. Historical archaeology provides opportunities to integrate inanimate objects with animated narrative and, the more recent the artifacts, the more human the stories they can tell.

  7. Living in a Materials World: Materials Science Engineering Professional Development for K-12 Educators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anne Seifert; Louis Nadelson

    2011-06-01

    Advances in materials science are fundamental to technological developments and have broad societal impacs. For example, a cellular phone is composed of a polymer case, liquid crystal displays, LEDs, silicon chips, Ni-Cd batteries, resistors, capacitors, speakers, microphones all of which have required advances in materials science to be compacted into a phone which is typically smaller than a deck of cards. Like many technological developments, cellular phones have become a ubiquitous part of society, and yet most people know little about the materials science associated with their manufacture. The probable condition of constrained knowledge of materials science was the motivation for developing and offering a 20 hour fourday course called 'Living in a Materials World.' In addition, materials science provides a connection between our every day experiences and the work of scientists and engineers. The course was offered as part of a larger K-12 teacher professional development project and was a component of a week-long summer institute designed specifically for upper elementary and middle school teachers which included 20 hour content strands, and 12 hours of plenary sessions, planning, and collaborative sharing. The focus of the institute was on enhancing teacher content knowledge in STEM, their capacity for teaching using inquiry, their comfort and positive attitudes toward teaching STEM, their knowledge of how people learn, and strategies for integrating STEM throughout the curriculum. In addition to the summer institute the participating teachers were provided with a kit of about $300 worth of materials and equipment to use to implement the content they learned in their classrooms. As part of this professional development project the participants were required to design and implement 5 lesson plans with their students this fall and report on the results, as part of the continuing education course associated with the project. 'Living in a

  8. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Coelho, Caio A S; Bailey, Trevor C; Coelho, Giovanini Evelim; Graham, Richard; Jupp, Tim; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-07-01

    With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnol

  9. Forecasting the distribution of precipitate diameters in the presence of changes in the structure of the material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zieliński A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The results of investigations on the microstructure of T23 and T24 low-alloy steels as well as P91 and P92 high-chromium steels in the as-received condition and after 70.000 h annealing at 550-650°C are presented. The quantitative analysis of the existing precipitates was performed for representative images of microstructure. The statistical analysis of collected data allowed the parameters of a selected theoretical statistical distribution to be estimated. A forecast of average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 100,000 hours at 550 and 600°C for T23 and T24 steels and at 600 and 650°C for P91 and P92 steels was calculated. The obtained results of investigations have made it possible to compare changes in the microstructure of various steel grades due to long-term impact of elevated temperature. They have also confirmed the possibility of using, in evaluating the degradation degree of materials in use, the forecasting methods that derive from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and forecast by analogy methods. The presented approach allows the development of a forecast of precipitate diameter probability density under the microstructure instability conditions for selected steel grades. The assessment of material condition that takes into consideration, but is not limited to, the precipitate diameter measurement is useful as an assessment component in estimating the time of safe service of power unit elements working under creep conditions.

  10. Object Lessons: Material Culture on the World Wide Web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mires, Charlene

    2001-01-01

    Describes the content of a course on material culture for undergraduate students that was separated into two sections: (1) first students read books and analyzed artifacts; and (2) then the class explored the Centennial Exhibition held in Philadelphia (Pennsylvania) in 1876, applying material culture methods and constructing a Web site from their…

  11. HANDS-ON MATERIALS AS INVITATION TO A FANTASY WORLD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejersbo, Lisser Rye

    In this article I wish to introduce an innovative use of hands-on-materials, developed by Peter Müller, a Danish elementary school teacher. The hands-on material itself consists of a collection of small plastic bears in different colors and sizes, which can be used for many different purposes among...

  12. The Dichotomous Cosmology with a Static Material World and Expanding Luminous World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heymann Y.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The dichotomous cosmology is an alternative to the expanding Universe theory, and consists of a static matter Universe, where cosmological redshifts are explained by a tired-light model with an expanding luminous world. In this model the Hubble constant is also the photon energy decay rate, and the luminous world i s expanding at a constant rate as in de Sitter cosmology for an empty Universe. The present model explains both the luminosity distance versus redshift relationship of supernovae Ia, and ageing of spectra observed with the stretching of supernovae light curves. Furthermore, it is consistent with a radiation energy density factor (1 + z 4 inferred from the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation.

  13. Stuff- The Materials that Shape our World - Experimental Learning Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenstein, Pam

    2012-04-30

    Making Stuff is a four-part series that explores how materials changed history and are shaping the future. To further enhance public engagement in and understanding of materials science, the project convened an extensive network of community coalitions across the country that hosted Making Stuff outreach activities and events, science cafes, and educator workshops in their local areas. Department Of Energy funding enabled us to increase the number of communities formally involved in the project, from 10 to 20 community hubs. Department of Energy funding also made it possible to develop a collection of materials science resources, activities and hands-on demonstrations for use in a variety of formal and informal settings, and Making Stuff activities were presented at science conferences and festivals around the country. The design, printing and national dissemination of the Making Stuff afterschool activity guide were also developed with DOE funding, as well as professional webinar trainings for scientists and educators to help facilitate many of the community activities and other online and print materials. Thanks to additional funding from the Department of Energy, we were able to expand the reach and scope of the project's outreach plan, specifically in the areas of: 1) content development, 2) training/professional development, 3) educational activities and 4) community partnerships. This report documents how the following DOE project goals were met: (1) Train scientists and provide teachers and informal educators with resources to engage youth with age appropriate information about materials science; (2) Provide activities and resources to five selected communities with ties to DOE researchers; (3) Increase interest in STEM.

  14. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-01

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano's inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 - 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between -2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  15. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-01-01

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days

  16. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika, E-mail: novia.antika.a@gmail.com [Geophysics Sub-department, Physics Department, Faculty of Mathematic and Natural Science, Universitas Gadjah Mada. BLS 21 Yogyakarta 55281 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  17. Forecasting of the radioactive material transport demand for the Brazilian Nuclear Program and the security aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meldonian, Nelson Leon

    1979-01-01

    In the nuclear fuel cycle, a lot of radioactive materials are produced. These radioactive materials must be transported in order to promote the integration of the fuel cycle units. Considerations about the transport characteristics of radioactive material were made for each section of the fuel cycle. These considerations were based on the experience of several countries and in accordance with the International Atomic Energy Agency regulations. A prediction of transport demands for the Brazilian Nuclear Program until year 2.010 was made. The prediction refers mainly to the quantity of radioactive material produced in each section of the cycle the quantity of vehicles needed for the transport of these materials. Several safety aspects were considered specially, the accidents predictions for years 2.000 and 2.010. The accident probability in Brazilian railroads and highways was compared with that of the USA. (author)

  18. Demand forecast for rail shipment of radioactive material in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, G.C.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1981-01-01

    A summary of the market potential for radioactive material (in millions of ton-miles) is presented in tabular form. These include the following: milled uranium ore; mill tailings; natural uranium hexafluoride; enriched uranium hexafluoride; fresh fuel, spent fuel; low-level waste; transuranic waste; and high-level waste. The maximum realistic market share for rail carriers is always less than these values because of the lack of rail access to some shipping and receiving facilities, small material quantities which could most easily move by other modes, short shipping distances for certain transport segments and greater operational convenience of other modes for some material categories. While market share and revenues for radioactive material are presently small, rail carriers appear to have a market advantage for milled uranium ore, transuranic waste and high-level waste. The potential for a significantly increased market share exists for spent fuel and uranium hexafluoride. While more fresh fuel and low-level waste can be transported by rail, it is unlikely that rail market share for radioactive materials (RAM) in general will rise to the potential maximum because many of these materials have historically been moved by truck and transported in frequent, small shipments

  19. Materials in world perspective. Assessment of resources, technologies and trends for key materials industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altenpohl, D G

    1980-01-01

    This book deals with the entire materials cycle - from extraction or harvesting to processing, manufacture, use, and reuse or disposal. It covers the present status and ongoing developments in six key materials industries in both industrialized and developing countries. Techno-economics trends, which are recognizable today, as well as important changes taking place from the mine through the refining stage on to finished products, are outlined. The 'problem triangle' of the materials industry - basic or raw materials, ecology and energy - is discussed. Of specific importance are the impacts which a given material or technology can have on the environment. Methods of assessing these impacts, which should be integrated into overall technology planning by the materials industry, are described. This book discusses resources, industry's social responsibilities and limits-to-growth. An explanation is given for opposing views on constraints and growth, not only for the materials industry, but also for the automotive and packaging industries. Thus, this book spotlights the interaction between different fields of technology and their interrelationship with and between different regions on Earth.

  20. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  1. Fissile materials and international security in the post-Cold War world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    It is essential that members of industry, government and international organizations be able to come together to discuss the latest developments in this vital field at events such as this. Given the number of years this organization has devoted to the issue, the INMM must find it interesting that the control of fissile materials has become such a high-profile issue in the policy and political communities. But, this evolution in policy is a natural outgrowth of the changing world situation. While just 10 years ago the US and Soviet Union were churning out the fissile materials needed for weapons, today these former rivals are working together, hand in hand, to corral the danger posed by these materials. And, while it is clear that the world no longer lives on the edge of nuclear war, the nuclear danger still exists, though in a less obvious and perhaps more insidious form. It is a great challenge in this post-Cold War world to contain this nuclear threat. It is prudent and necessary for the US to be in the forefront of efforts to address and tame this problem. The fundamental threat posed by the proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials is a direct challenge to US and world security. President Clinton has clearly recognized the changed nature of the nuclear danger. To meet this challenge, he has labored to put in place a comprehensive and integrated plan for addressing this threat. The US Department of Energy has a unique role in this effort because, as an institution with many decades of experience in fissile material matters, it is able to provide expertise and technical analyses that are essential in defining and implementing policy prescriptions. The president's comprehensive plan to prevent nuclear proliferation and reduce the danger posed by weapons-usable nuclear materials has four essential elements: secure existing nuclear material stockpiles; limit fissile material production and use, eliminate warheads, and strengthen the nonproliferation regime

  2. Accuracy and speed of material categorization in real-world images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharan, Lavanya; Rosenholtz, Ruth; Adelson, Edward H.

    2014-01-01

    It is easy to visually distinguish a ceramic knife from one made of steel, a leather jacket from one made of denim, and a plush toy from one made of plastic. Most studies of material appearance have focused on the estimation of specific material properties such as albedo or surface gloss, and as a consequence, almost nothing is known about how we recognize material categories like leather or plastic. We have studied judgments of high-level material categories with a diverse set of real-world photographs, and we have shown (Sharan, 2009) that observers can categorize materials reliably and quickly. Performance on our tasks cannot be explained by simple differences in color, surface shape, or texture. Nor can the results be explained by observers merely performing shape-based object recognition. Rather, we argue that fast and accurate material categorization is a distinct, basic ability of the visual system. PMID:25122216

  3. Accuracy and speed of material categorization in real-world images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharan, Lavanya; Rosenholtz, Ruth; Adelson, Edward H

    2014-08-13

    It is easy to visually distinguish a ceramic knife from one made of steel, a leather jacket from one made of denim, and a plush toy from one made of plastic. Most studies of material appearance have focused on the estimation of specific material properties such as albedo or surface gloss, and as a consequence, almost nothing is known about how we recognize material categories like leather or plastic. We have studied judgments of high-level material categories with a diverse set of real-world photographs, and we have shown (Sharan, 2009) that observers can categorize materials reliably and quickly. Performance on our tasks cannot be explained by simple differences in color, surface shape, or texture. Nor can the results be explained by observers merely performing shape-based object recognition. Rather, we argue that fast and accurate material categorization is a distinct, basic ability of the visual system. © 2014 ARVO.

  4. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  5. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  6. Fissile material and international security in the post-Cold War world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luongo, K.N.

    1995-01-01

    Given the number of years this organization has devoted to the issue, the INMM must find it quite interesting that the control of fissile materials has become such a high profile issue in the policy and political communities. But, this evolution in policy is a natural outgrowth of the changing world situation. While just ten years ago the United States and the Soviet Union were churning out the fissile materials needed for weapons, today these former rivals are working together, hand in hand, to corral the danger posed by these materials. And, while it is clear that the world no longer lives on the edge of nuclear war, the nuclear danger still exists, though in a less obvious and perhaps more insidious form. It is a great challenge in this post Cold War-world to contain this nuclear threat. It is prudent and necessary for the United States to be in the forefront of efforts to address and tame this problem. The fundamental threat posed by the proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials is a direct challenge to US and world security. President Clinton has clearly recognized the changed nature of the nuclear danger. To meet this challenge, he also labored to put in place a comprehensive and integrated plan for addressing this threat. The Department of Energy has a unique role in this effort because, as an institution with man decades of experience in fissile material matters, it is able to provide expertise and technical analyses which are essential in defining and implementing policy prescriptions. The President's comprehensive plan to prevent nuclear proliferation and reduce the danger posed by weapons-usable nuclear materials has four essential elements: (1) secure existing stockpiles; (2) limit production and use; (3) eliminate warheads; and (4) strengthen the nonproliferation regime

  7. Method and device for forecasting remaining lifetime for material constituting light water reactor plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anzai, Hideya; Nakada, Kiyotomo; Shimanuki, Sei; Kida, Toshitaka; Fuse, Motomasa; Shigenaka, Naoto; Kuniya, Jiro; Izumiya, Masakiyo; Hattori, Shigeo; Saito, Takashi.

    1994-01-01

    A pressure vessel of a light water type reactor comprises a crack development sensor at the inside and a crack development monitor at the outside to monitor the development of cracks detected by the crack progress sensor. In addition, the reactor also comprises, at the outside thereof, a dissolved oxygen meter, a dissolved hydrogen peroxide meter and a conductivity meter for reactor water. A computer is connected, on line, to the crack development monitor, the dissolved oxygen meter, the dissolved hydrogen peroxide meter and the conductivity meter. A crack development rate measured by the crack development monitor, as well as the dissolved oxygen concentration, the dissolved peroxide hydrogen concentration and the conductivity of reactor water measured at the outside of the reactor by the dissolved oxygen meter, the dissolved hydrogen peroxide meter and the conductivity meter are inputted to the computer. The computer calculates the effective dissolved oxygen concentration for each portion of the plant based on these measured values. Further, the period of time till the crack reaches a predetermined limit value is calculated based on the measured values. Then, the period of time is displayed as a remaining life time of the materials due to stress corrosion crackings. (I.N.)

  8. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  9. Trends in the forecast of the world prices for selected metals and their influence on the exploitation of the Slovak raw mineral base

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavkovský Jozef

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper is given a basic information about the situation in the ore raw material base of the Slovak republic, after its transition to the market economy in the years 1990 – 1994. By dumping the ore mining, a decrease in the ore production, especially their sortiment, also started. Therefore only two ore mines – Nižná Slaná (Fe ores and Banská Hodruša (Au ores are in operation in Slovakia at present time. The rest of Slovak ores are economically not viable after present criteria. Besides the evaluation of balanced and unbalanced ore deposits, and the deposit´s parameters, the knowledge about trends of world ores and metal prices are very important. From this point of view, ores and metals which have a great importance (Fe, Al, Cu, Sb, Ag, Au for Slovakia are discussed. The obtained results have a prognostic character and they should be considered at the utilisation of own mineral base, as well as when buying mineral raw materials from abroad. In both cases the information about trends of world prices of raw materials play an important role.

  10. The readability of pediatric patient education materials on the World Wide Web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessandro, D M; Kingsley, P; Johnson-West, J

    2001-07-01

    Literacy is a national and international problem. Studies have shown the readability of adult and pediatric patient education materials to be too high for average adults. Materials should be written at the 8th-grade level or lower. To determine the general readability of pediatric patient education materials designed for adults on the World Wide Web (WWW). GeneralPediatrics.com (http://www.generalpediatrics.com) is a digital library serving the medical information needs of pediatric health care providers, patients, and families. Documents from 100 different authoritative Web sites designed for laypersons were evaluated using a built-in computer software readability formula (Flesch Reading Ease and Flesch-Kincaid reading levels) and hand calculation methods (Fry Formula and SMOG methods). Analysis of variance and paired t tests determined significance. Eighty-nine documents constituted the final sample; they covered a wide spectrum of pediatric topics. The overall Flesch Reading Ease score was 57.0. The overall mean Fry Formula was 12.0 (12th grade, 0 months of schooling) and SMOG was 12.2. The overall Flesch-Kincaid grade level was significantly lower (Peducation materials on the WWW are not written at an appropriate reading level for the average adult. We propose that a practical reading level and how it was determined be included on all patient education materials on the WWW for general guidance in material selection. We discuss suggestions for improved readability of patient education materials.

  11. Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Lehner

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

  12. Identifying World Views Projected by Science Teaching Materials: A Case Study Using Pepper's WORLD HYPOTHESES to Analyze a Biology Textbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilbourn, Brent

    The purpose of this study is to develop and demonstrate the use of a conceptual framework for assessing the potential of "world view" as a concept for understanding important issues in science education. The framework is based on Stephen C. Pepper's treatment of six world hypotheses (animism, mysticism, formism, mechansim, contextualism, and…

  13. The ultimate constituents of the material world. In search of an ontology for fundamental physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuhlmann, Meinard

    2010-07-01

    Today, quantum field theory (QFT) - the mathematical and conceptual framework for contemporary elementary particle physics - is the best starting point for analysing the fundamental building blocks of the material world. QFT if taken seriously in its metaphysical implications yields a picture of the world that is at variance with central classical conceptions. The core of Kuhlmann's investigation consists in the analysis of various ontological interpretations of QFT, e.g. substance ontologies as well as a process-ontological approach. Eventually, Kuhlmann proposes a dispositional trope ontology, according to which particularized properties and not things are the most basic entities, in terms of which all other entities are to be analysed, e.g as bundles of properties. This book was chosen for the 2009 ontos-Award for research on analytical ontology and metaphysics by the German Society for Analytical Philosophy. (orig.)

  14. The ultimate constituents of the material world. In search of an ontology for fundamental physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuhlmann, Meinard

    2010-01-01

    Today, quantum field theory (QFT) - the mathematical and conceptual framework for contemporary elementary particle physics - is the best starting point for analysing the fundamental building blocks of the material world. QFT if taken seriously in its metaphysical implications yields a picture of the world that is at variance with central classical conceptions. The core of Kuhlmann's investigation consists in the analysis of various ontological interpretations of QFT, e.g. substance ontologies as well as a process-ontological approach. Eventually, Kuhlmann proposes a dispositional trope ontology, according to which particularized properties and not things are the most basic entities, in terms of which all other entities are to be analysed, e.g as bundles of properties. This book was chosen for the 2009 ontos-Award for research on analytical ontology and metaphysics by the German Society for Analytical Philosophy. (orig.)

  15. World-wide risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, A.M.; Elert, M.

    1983-01-01

    The aim of the project reported in this paper is to develop the means and methods for a risk analysis of the transportation of radioactive materials throughout the world. The project was initiated by the Standing Advisory Group on the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials (SAGSTRAM) of the IAEA. In 1979 the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the IAEA signed an agreement on the development of a model for calculation of the transport risk. Member States of the IAEA are invited to use the model for a risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials in their own country. These assessments will be collected and analyzed and a world-wide risk assessment performed. The IAEA has the overall responsibility for the project and administers it. Sweden manages the project and has performed the applied research with the assistance of research support groups which have supplied data and analyses and performed some other parts of the project. An Oversight Committee with participants from eight Member States has reviewed the progress and has given valuable recommendations. It was important that the model had the sophistication and flexibility required for its use by all Member States but still was easy to handle. The risk calculations are performed by the computer code INTERTRAN which is based on the American computer code RADTRAN II developed by Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. The methodology of the RADTRAN II as well as data and format of the input and output was changed to make the code more internationally oriented. 2 references

  16. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  17. FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM PERIOD BY USING ARIMAX MODEL IN THE CONSTRUCTION AND MATERIALS SECTOR IN THAILAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the forecasting of energy consumption in the Construction and Materials sectors. The scope of the study covers the forecasting periods of energy consumption for the next 10 years, 2017-2026, 20 years, 2017-2036, and 30 years, 2017-2046, by using ARIMAX Model. The prediction results show that these models are effective in the forecast measured by RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. The results show that from the first model (2,1,1, which predicted the duration of 10 years, 2017-2026, indicates that Thailand has increased an energy consumption rate with the average of 18.09%, while the second model (2,1,2 with the prediction of 20 years, 2017-2036, Thailand arises its energy consumption up to 37.32%. In addition, the third model (2,1,3 predicted the duration of 30 years from 2017 to 2046, and it has found that Thailand increases its energy consumption up to 49.72%.

  18. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  19. Modeling of the fatigue damage accumulation processes in the material of NPP design units under thermomechanical unstationary effects. Estimation of spent life and forecast of residual life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriushin, A.I.; Korotkikh, Yu.G.; Gorodov, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The estimation problems of spent life and forecast of residual life of NPP equipment design units, operated at unstationary thermal force loads are considered. These loads are, as a rule, unregular and cause rotation of main stress tensor platforms of the most loaded zones of structural elements and viscoelastic plastic deformation of material in the places of stresses concentrations. The existing engineering approaches to the damages accumulation processes calculation in the material of structural units, their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. For the processes of fatigue damages accumulation a model is proposed, which allows to take into account the unregular pattern of deformation multiaxiality of stressed state, rotation of main platforms, non-linear summation of damages at the loading mode change. The model in based on the equations of damaged medium mechanics, including the equations of viscoplastic deformation of the material and evolutionary equations of damages accumulation. The algorithms of spent life estimation and residual life forecast of the controlled equipment and systems zones are made on the bases of the given model by the known real history of loading, which is determined by real model of NPP operation. The results of numerical experiments on the basis of given model for various processes of thermal force loads and their comparison with experimental results are presented. (author)

  20. When material world speaks. Slovenian festive food and Slovenians in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godina-Golija Maja

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper draws on material collected during this author’s fieldwork research in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Ruma in 2008, 2012 and 2015. Obtained by various research methods, particularly the narrative interview, observation methods, and the questionnaire, the data provides an insight into the Slovene immigrant community in Serbia and the importance of Slovene food elements for members of this community and for the community as a whole. Although primarily an element of the material world, food also plays an important role within the context of a different cultural or social milieu. Some elements of food culture, particularly certain dishes, spices, and food preparation techniques, are especially important in the creation and preservation of ethnic identity of immigrant communities and of individual identities of their members. Among the Slovenes living in Serbia, this prominent position is occupied primarily by Slovene festive dishes, which are prepared for all major family celebrations and events. Food and especially festive dishes not only symbolizes the social ties and the division but actively participates in their creation and rebirth. Having become a symbol of ethnic affiliation of Slovenes living outside Slovenia, such food serves to materialize their ethnic identity.

  1. Charitable activities in Tsaritsyn during the World War I (on materials of periodicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana A. Karagodina

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the article is to identify the charitable activities carried out in the city of Tsaritsyn during the World War I. As a method of research used analysis of materials of pre-revolutionary periodicals published in the city in time of war. The main source of analysis is the issues of the newspaper «Tsaritsyno Bulletin» for the period from July 1914 to February 1917. The analysis allowed to identify the most priority directions of charitable aid, carried out in Tsaritsyn in the war. Also, the article discusses the activities of public organizations and associations, involved in the provision of charitable assistance to the sick and wounded soldiers, their wives and children, refugees. In particular, the reports of the Ladies' Committee of Tsaritsyn and the Tsaritsyn branch of the Russian Red Cross Society are analyzed and the features of the activity of these organizations are revealed.

  2. Extreme poverty and affluence, the two sides of our world. Energy, raw materials, environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bischoff, G

    1987-07-01

    The author discusses the different economic situtions in the industrialized and in the developing parts of the world, and the resulting fears of the populations. These feelings of fear and apprehension are traced back to their manifold causes, discussing among others unsecure raw material supply and the damage to the environment, hostile attitudes towards industrial exploitation or technical sciences, the role of the press and other media in the 'making' of fear of life, the fear of becoming slave of the machines. The problems' solution lies in the supply and utilisation of energy, and any efforts towards maintaining our natural environment so that life may go on will have to be based, the author says, on the technological development from nuclear power to thermonuclear fusion. (HSCH).

  3. R'07 World Congress - Recovery of materials and energy for resource efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This final congress report summarises the topics dealt with at the R'07 World Congress on the recovery of materials and energy for resource efficiency. The congress was held in 2007 in Davos, Switzerland. Details on the organisation and participants are given and the experts who held plenary lectures are listed. Brief details are given on oral and poster sessions, along with details on how the proceedings of the congress can be obtained. Workshops held at the conference covered the following topics: Plastics recycling, biofuels and E-waste, workshops on zero wastes, scarce metals and the identification and management of social implications over the product life cycle (footprint). An Internet-address where the results of the sessions can be obtained is given along with a summary of excursions and social events held within the framework of the congress. Finally, participant feedback is presented in graphical form.

  4. The materials flow of mercury in the economies of the United States and the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sznopek, John L.; Goonan, Thomas G.

    2000-01-01

    Although natural sources of mercury exist in the environment, measured data and modeling results indicate that the amount of mercury released into the biosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial age. Mercury is naturally distributed in the air, water, and soil in minute amounts, and can be mobile within and between these media. Because of these properties and the subsequent impacts on human health, mercury was selected for an initial materials flow study, focusing on the United States in 1990. This study was initiated to provide a current domestic and international analysis. As part of an increased emphasis on materials flow, this report researched changes and identified the associated trends in mercury flows; it also updates statistics through 1996. In addition to domestic flows, the report includes an international section, because all primary mercury-producing mines are currently foreign, 86 percent of the mercury cell sector of the worldwide chlor-alkali industry is outside the United States, there is a large international mercury trade (1,395 t 1 in 1996), and environmental regulations are not uniform or similarly enforced from country to country. Environmental concerns have brought about numerous regulations that have dramatically decreased both the use and the production of mercury since the late 1980?s. Our study indicates that this trend is likely to continue into the future, as the world eliminates the large mercury inventories that have been stockpiled to support prior industrial processes and products.

  5. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  6. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  7. Living in a material world: Development and evaluation of a new materials science course for non-science majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brust, Gregory John

    This study was designed to discover if there is a difference in the scientific attitudes and process skills between a group of students who were instructed with Living in a Material World and groups of students in non-science majors sections of introductory biology, chemistry, and geology courses at the University of Southern Mississippi (USM). Each of the four courses utilized different instructional techniques. Students' scientific attitudes were measured with the Scientific Attitudes Inventory (SAI II) and their knowledge of science process skills were measured with the Test of Integrated Process Skills (TIPS II). The Group Assessment of Logical Thinking (GALT) was also administered to determine if the cognitive levels of students are comparable. A series of four questionnaires called Qualitative Course Assessments (QCA) were also administered to students in the experimental course to evaluate subtle changes in their understanding of the nature and processes of science and attitudes towards science. Student responses to the QCA questionnaires were triangulated with results of the qualitative instruments, and students' work on the final project. Results of the GALT found a significant difference in the cognitive levels of students in the experimental course (PSC 190) and in one of the control group, the introductory biology (BSC 107). Results of the SAI II and the TIPS II found no significant difference between the experimental group and the control groups. Qualitative analyses of students' responses to selected questions from the TIPS II, selected items on the SAI II, QCA questionnaires, and Materials that Fly project reports demonstrate an improvement in the understanding of the nature and processes of science and a change to positive attitude toward science of students in the experimental group. Students indicated that hands-on, inquiry-based labs and performance assessment were the most effective methods for their learning. These results indicate that science

  8. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J E; Mogren, A

    1984-01-01

    The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.

  9. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  10. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  11. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  12. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  13. Medical Aid for Russian Soldiers During the First World War (on the Materials of Tsaritsyn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lepkova Elena

    2014-11-01

    hospitals, financed “personal beds” in infirmaries, carried out charitable evenings and “passing the hat”. The article is written on the basis of archival materials which described the Tsaritsyn hospitals, the wounded and captives of the First World War.

  14. Pykrete is the frozen composite material of the World War II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Kovalev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the war, government of the allies considered the construction of ice structures converted from artificial icebergs into aircraft carriers. The idea to use ice for construction of floating aerodromes, or giant aircraft carriers, was launched by Geoffrey Pyke, and then was developed in a project called «Habbakuk». Aircraft carriers, made of ice, had to work for a long period of time at temperatures of water and air, resulting in rapid destruction of the structure of ordinary ice. The ice in its pure form is unsuitable for any engineering form therefore the experiments on reinforcement of ice were undertaken. New form of ice engineering was based on the type of reinforcement patterns of ice and coating it with an insulating material, which would greatly reduce the influence of melting due to the temperature of the ambient air. After tests with different substances and proportions, it was found that the mixture of ice with wood pulp, amounting to about 14%, gives the best result of reinforcement. Proposed dimensions of «Habbakuk» were 610 m (2000 ft long, 90 m (300 feet in width and a height of 60 m (200 ft. In 1943, on the surface of the lake Patricia a reduced model to test the viability of the project was constructed. Development of improved long-range aviation, the airbase in Iceland and other technological advances contributed to the successful elimination of the threat from submarines, so the project had been suspended. The technology of strong ice structures invented during the World War II time can still have practical applications today.

  15. Nuclear materials control technology in the post-cold war world: Radiation-based methods and information management systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tape, J.W.; Eccleston, G.W.; Ensslin, N.; Markin, J.T.

    1993-01-01

    The end of the cold war is providing both opportunities and requirements for improving the control of nuclear materials around the world. The dismantlement of nuclear weapons and the growth of nuclear power, including the use of plutonium in light water reactors and breeder reactor programs, coupled with enhanced proliferation concerns, drive the need for improved nuclear materials control. We describe nuclear materials control and the role of technology in making controls more effective and efficient. The current use and anticipated development in selected radiation-based methods and related information management systems am described briefly

  16. 84 The Third World Option in a Globalized Building Materials Market ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Choice-Academy

    Globalization has been described as a world phenomenon that provides a level ground for competitive ..... and the political class are held socially and .... enhance levels of occupants' comfort, safety ... well advanced in manufacturing industry.

  17. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  18. Global-warming forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  19. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  20. Is Information Enough? User Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Sub{sub S}aharan Africa, Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto; Kingamkono, Robert; Hochobeb, Ben

    2000-05-01

    Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Nino events and their impact on climate variability. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines how farmers received and used the forecasts in the agricultural season of 1997/1998. It also summarises a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa. Comparison of case studies across south Africa revealed differences in forecast dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. However, improving these strategies and the capacity to respond to the forecasts would yield net profit to agriculture in southern Africa. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there clearly is a need for improved seasonal forecasts and improved information dissemination.

  1. Radiation processing of organics and biological materials exposed to ocean world surface conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, K. P.; Carlson, R. W.

    2017-12-01

    Assessing the habitability of ocean worlds, such as Europa and Enceladus, motivates a search for endogenous carbon compounds that could be indicative of a habitable, or even inhabited, subsurface liquid water environment. We have examined the role of destruction and synthesis of organic compounds via 10 keV electron bombardment of ices generated under temperature and pressure conditions comparable to Europa and Enceladus. Short-chain organics and ammonia, in combination with water, were exposed to Mrad to Grad doses and observed to evolve to a `lost' carbon fraction (CO and CO2) and a `retained' carbon fraction (consisting of a highly refractory `ocean world tholin' populated by highly radiation resistant carbonyl, aldehyde, and nitrile components). The retained fraction is of key importance as this likely represents the observable fraction for future spacecraft investigations. We also irradiated microbial spores (B. pumilis) to approximately 2 Grad and have found persistence of biomolecule fractions derived from proteins and nucleic acids.

  2. To Encounter, to Build the World and to Become a Human Being. Advocating for a Material-Cultural Turn in Developmental Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moro, Christiane

    2016-12-01

    Why have material world of daily life and material objects in their conventional features or to say it in other words, why have the mundane world and mundane objects, in which the human beings live and children come to, encounter, experience and develop through, received so little attention from psychologists thus remaining a blind spot in mainstream developmental psychology? Certainly the object has not been totally forgotten (e.g. Piaget's constructivist paradigm) but it has been considered as theoretically determined by the categories of understanding (cf. Kant), and considered as a key to understanding the world in its physical properties by the infant. But the material world and the material objects that are used for everyday purposes (i.e. pragmatically) belonging to material culture, have been totally neglected by developmental psychologists. Reacting to the Kantian agenda of developmental psychology but also to heterodox non developmentalist thinkers such as Gibson who is a growing source of inspiration for developmental psychologists today, we challenge the taken-for-granted mundane world, arguing for the importance of material objects related to material culture in psychological development during the prelinguistic period. On the basis of recent research in early development grounded in the Vygotskian paradigm, we discuss this issue through Marxist Anthropology, Material Culture Studies and Phenomenology. As a consequence we advocate for a material-cultural turn in psychological development in order to place the issue of material world and material objects in their pragmatic and semiotic features on the agenda of developmental psychology.

  3. Gas demand forecasting by a new artificial intelligent algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatibi. B, Vahid; Khatibi, Elham

    2012-01-01

    Energy demand forecasting is a key issue for consumers and generators in all energy markets in the world. This paper presents a new forecasting algorithm for daily gas demand prediction. This algorithm combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP), linear regression or GARCH. The proposed method is applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the proposed method.

  4. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  2. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  3. Big brains, small worlds: material culture and the evolution of the mind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coward, Fiona; Gamble, Clive

    2008-06-12

    New developments in neuroimaging have demonstrated that the basic capacities underpinning human social skills are shared by our closest extant primate relatives. The challenge for archaeologists is to explain how complex human societies evolved from this shared pattern of face-to-face social interaction. We argue that a key process was the gradual incorporation of material culture into social networks over the course of hominin evolution. Here we use three long-term processes in hominin evolution-encephalization, the global human diaspora and sedentism/agriculture-to illustrate how the cultural transmission of material culture allowed the 'scaling up' of face-to-face social interactions to the global societies known today. We conclude that future research by neuroimagers and archaeologists will need to investigate the cognitive mechanisms behind human engagement with material culture as well as other persons.

  4. Binary Opposition Sociolinguistic Picture of the World (on the Material of Modern English Language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia B. Boyeva-Omelechko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is topical due to the interest of scientists to the problems of interaction of society and language and the role of language in constructing and reconstructing political reality. The authors of the article introduce the notion of the sociolinguistic picture of the world. This picture reflects different aspects of the phenomenon «society» with the help of words which may be called «sociolinguisms». The words in question cover such spheres of society as economical, social, political and spiritual ones. The authors put forward the idea that binary oppositions are typical of the sociolinguistic picture of the world because social phenomena usually contain interdependent and at the same time mutually excluding each other sides which are revealed by the conscience and reflecteded in the language. Unfortunately only some of these oppositions are represented in the dictionaries of synonyms and antonyms. The authors stress that their range is much wider and can be described on the basis of different types of general and explanatory dictionaries with the help of linguistic methods of investigation. Special attention is paid to national peculiarities and axiological properties of antonyms-sociolinguisms.

  5. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  6. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  7. World Materials Summit (3rd). Held in Washington, DC on 9-12 October, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-23

    creates bumps on the backplane of a thin monocrystalline silicon solar cell. This increases the efficiency through a light trapping mechanism. They are...atoms in motion," Brinkman said. The third and fourth days of the Summit were occupied with panel sessions, each discussing one aspect of materials...lighting; energy fuels; water; renewables; and policy and education. Some highlights of the panel reports to the Summit as a whole: • The smart

  8. INTERTRAN - A model for world-wide risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, A.-M.; Elert, M.

    1982-09-01

    The US computer code RADTRAN forms the basis of INTERTRAN. The code calculates the radiological impact from incident-free transports and vehicular accidents involving radioactive materials. A run with the INTERTRAN code requires a large amount of input data. To simplify for the user default values are provided for a lot of the input data. An interactive program which produces an input data file is provided together with the code. The paper presents a complete manual for the applications. (G.B.)

  9. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  10. Material consumption and social well-being within the periphery of the world economy: an ecological analysis of maternal mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, James

    2008-12-01

    The degree to which social well-being is predicated upon levels of material consumption remains under-examined from a large-N, quantitative perspective. The present study analyzes the factors influencing levels of maternal mortality in 2005 among 92 peripheral countries. We incorporate into regression analysis the ecological footprint, a comprehensive measure of natural resource consumption, and alternative explanatory variables drawn from previous research. Results illustrate ecological footprint consumption has a moderately strong direct influence shaping lower levels of maternal mortality. Path analysis reveals export commodity concentration has a negative effect on level of ecological footprint demand net the strong positive influence of income per capita. This illustrates cross-national trade dependency relations directly influence natural resource consumption opportunities and thereby indirectly contribute to higher maternal mortality levels within the periphery of the world economy. The results confirm material consumption is an important dimension of improvement in maternal mortality.

  11. Determination of yield related traits of sesame genotypes selected from world collection and mutant material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silme, R. S.; Cagirgan, M. I.

    2009-01-01

    Sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) is an important plant of Turkey that secondary gen center and very used of food industry's a lot of area. Mutation breeding of sesame research continued coordinately with IAEA since 1993. it is aimed in these breeding programmes to improve lines that have dehiscent capsule, determinate growth and resistance to wilting traits. This study was conducted in Antalya City, at Akdeniz University Agricultural Faculty experiment fields under second crop conditions in 2007. At this study, 19 genotypes selected from world sesame collection, 4 mutant genotypes and 2 local cultivars were sown. The experiments were conducted according to Complete Randomized Block Design with three replications. It was found that first flowering date varied between 35 to 45 days, 50% flowering date from 39 to 54 days, last flowering date from 63 to 88 days, first capsule date from 42 to 51 days, first capsule height from 44 to 116 cm, plant height from 102 to 177 cm, number of branch per plant from 0.1 to 2.7, number of pod per plant from 28 to 63, number of seeds in capsule 2.3-4.3 g, 1000 seed weight ranged from 2.3 to 4.3 g, seed yield per da from 18 to 77 kg. The highest yield per da (77 kg/da) was obtained from mutant genotype, wt-5.

  12. Laboratory investigations of insecticide impregnated materials for the control of New World screwworm flies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, E.G.; Brown, M.; Smith, S.

    1992-01-01

    In laboratory tests, New World screwworm flies were found to be at least three orders of magnitude less susceptible to the insecticides deltamethrin, alphacypermethrin and cyfluthrin than are tsetse flies. Deltamethrin was the most toxic of the three insecticides to screwworm flies. For topical application, the LD50s for deltamethrin 20% suspension concentrate were 33 ng and 25 ng for male and female screwworm flies respectively, compared with 0.04 ng for tsetse, G.m. morsitans. In various tests simulating contact of screwworm flies with cloth or netting targets impregnated with insecticide, 100% kill was only achieved with 3.2% deltamethrin and contact times of at least 10 sec, although 100% knockdown for up to 24 hours was obtained with lower concentrations. No repellent effect was observed at the higher concentrations. Cloth targets impregnated with a high dose of insecticide and baited with an attractant could be effective against NWS flies, especially if after ''knockdown'' flies are removed by predators. 1 fig., 9 tabs

  13. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  14. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  15. Making the Self in a Material World: Food and Moralities of Consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle de Solier

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Food is increasingly central to consumer culture today. From fine dining restaurants to farmers’ markets, stainless steel kitchenware to celebrity chef cookbooks, there is a stylish array of culinary commodities available for fashioning our identities. Yet this occurs at a time when commodity consumption more generally is under greater question as a site of self-making, with the rise of anti-consumerist sentiment. This article examines how people negotiate these issues in their identity formation, by focusing on those for whom food is central to their sense of self: ‘foodies’. I draw on theories of consumption, identity and material culture, in particular the work of Daniel Miller, to examine ethnographic research undertaken with foodies in Melbourne, Australia.

  16. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  17. “Experience World War II like never before!” : A systematic content analysis of promotional materials surrounding World War II-themed digital games.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van den Heede, Pieter; Ribbens, Kees; Jeroen, Jansz

    2016-01-01

    Especially since the 1990s, World War II has been one of the most popular historical conflicts to be represented and simulated in digital games (Mobygames, 2016). Yet, in the current body of research about these games, mainly aspects of individual games or game types, such as the World War II-themed

  18. Ultrathin high band gap solar cells with improved efficiencies from the world's oldest photovoltaic material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorov, Teodor K; Singh, Saurabh; Bishop, Douglas M; Gunawan, Oki; Lee, Yun Seog; Gershon, Talia S; Brew, Kevin W; Antunez, Priscilla D; Haight, Richard

    2017-09-25

    Selenium was used in the first solid state solar cell in 1883 and gave early insights into the photoelectric effect that inspired Einstein's Nobel Prize work; however, the latest efficiency milestone of 5.0% was more than 30 years ago. The recent surge of interest towards high-band gap absorbers for tandem applications led us to reconsider this attractive 1.95 eV material. Here, we show completely redesigned selenium devices with improved back and front interfaces optimized through combinatorial studies and demonstrate record open-circuit voltage (V OC ) of 970 mV and efficiency of 6.5% under 1 Sun. In addition, Se devices are air-stable, non-toxic, and extremely simple to fabricate. The absorber layer is only 100 nm thick, and can be processed at 200 ˚C, allowing temperature compatibility with most bottom substrates or sub-cells. We analyze device limitations and find significant potential for further improvement making selenium an attractive high-band-gap absorber for multi-junction device applications.Wide band gap semiconductors are important for the development of tandem photovoltaics. By introducing buffer layers at the front and rear side of solar cells based on selenium; Todorov et al., reduce interface recombination losses to achieve photoconversion efficiencies of 6.5%.

  19. Sales Forecasting for Fashion Retailing Service Industry: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is crucial for many retail operations. It is especially critical for the fashion retailing service industry in which product demand is very volatile and product’s life cycle is short. This paper conducts a comprehensive literature review and selects a set of papers in the literature on fashion retail sales forecasting. The advantages and the drawbacks of different kinds of analytical methods for fashion retail sales forecasting are examined. The evolution of the respective forecasting methods over the past 15 years is revealed. Issues related to real-world applications of the fashion retail sales forecasting models and important future research directions are discussed.

  20. Six rules for accurate effective forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffo, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blind-sided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don't fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast.

  1. Forecasting Tools Point to Fishing Hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Private weather forecaster WorldWinds Inc. of Slidell, Louisiana has employed satellite-gathered oceanic data from Marshall Space Flight Center to create a service that is every fishing enthusiast s dream. The company's FishBytes system uses information about sea surface temperature and chlorophyll levels to forecast favorable conditions for certain fish populations. Transmitting the data to satellite radio subscribers, FishBytes provides maps that guide anglers to the areas they are most likely to make their favorite catch.

  2. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  3. Book review. Ann-Hege Lorvik Waterhouse: In the material world: Perspectives and practices in kindergarten art activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Scott Frisch

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the review of Ann-Hege Lorvik Waterhouse’s book I materialenes verden; perspektiver og praksiser i barnehagens kunstneriske virksomhet (In the material world: Perspectives and practices in kindergarten art activities,  Frisch states that despite the fact that the author is in some ways critical of the impact Reggio Emilia has had on Norwegian kindergartens, in her opinion, the book's content rests on the shoulders of the exploratory child-centred educational philosophy. The book offers great, relevant images related to new reflective concrete ideas, and it has a beautiful layout. Waterhouse points out her core argument several places in the text: a good kindergarten teacher is a creative kindergarten teacher – and the book reviewer adds, a good kindergarten teacher is a reading, reflecting kindergarten teacher.

  4. Space-time Evolution and Forecast of the Oil Palm Production and Trade in the World%世界油棕生产贸易的时空格局演变及发展预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐露; 刘养洁

    2012-01-01

      Oil palm is one kind of woody oil crops whose yield per unit area is highest, it is known as "the king of world's oil". The proportions of its production and trading volume are the highest in all kinds of oil crops, which has huge economic benefits. This research studies the origin of the world palm oil and geographical spread. It also analyzes oil palm production and trade situation in recent years. The result shows: oil palm originates in Africa, and spreads to the vast tropical areas of Asia、Africa and Latin America, now it forms three major producing areas, which are Central and West Africa、Southeast Asia、Central and South America, it also has the basic pattern of ten consumption areas such as India、China、the European Union. According to the research, the trade trend of oil palm production can be forecast, which gets three points: oil palm's acreage and consumer market will continue growing, new technology will boost oil palm yield and the sustainable use of oil palm will further to be strengthened.%  油棕是世界上单位面积产量最高的一种木本油料作物,有“世界油王”之称。它的产量和贸易量比重在植物油料中居世界第一,经济效益巨大。本文从世界油棕的起源与地理扩散入手,对近年来世界油棕的生产贸易现状作了分析,结果表明:油棕起源于非洲,扩散到亚非拉广大热带地区,目前形成中西非、东南亚、中南美三大产区和印、中、欧盟等十大消费地的基本格局。在此基础上,对油棕生产贸易的发展趋势作了预测,一是种植面积和油棕消费市场将会继续增长;二是新科技助力油棕的增产;三是油棕的可持续利用必将进一步加强。

  5. Did Raw Material Shortages Decide World War Two? New Data for the Example of Nazi Rubber Supplies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Ferdinand Schmelzing

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite a well-established literature on the economics of World War Two, to this day reliable statistics on overall raw material supplies for Nazi Germany are lacking. The operations of shell companies, the special de jure status of occupied areas, and the Wehrmacht practice to “live off the land” have led to a significant underestimation of de facto resource endowments of the Third Reich. For the example of rubber—one of the prime “scarce war commodities”—this article demonstrates the extent and sources of deficiencies, and offers new data. On this basis, and in contrast to recent arguments that view raw materials as a “basic constraint” of the German economy, it is shown that surprisingly comfortable supplies existed between December 1941 and May 1944, during which Nazi-controlled Europe seemed ready to allow a realization of Hitler’s ‘Lebensraum’ designs. The failure to realize those designs originated in military setbacks—which subsequently impacted economic performance as a secondary effect.

  6. Global Patterns of Material Flows and their Socio-Economic and Environmental Implications: A MFA Study on All Countries World-Wide from 1980 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Giljum

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses world-wide patterns of material extraction, trade, consumption and productivity based on a new data set for economy-wide material flows, covering used materials for all countries world-wide between 1980 and 2009. We show that global material extraction has grown by more than 90% over the past 30 years and is reaching almost 70 billion tonnes today. Also, trade volumes in physical terms have increased by a factor of 2.5 over the past 30 years, and in 2009, 9.3 billion tonnes of raw materials and products were traded around the globe. China has turned into the biggest consumer of materials world-wide and together with the US, India, Brazil and Russia, consumes more than 50% of all globally extracted materials. We also show that the per-capita consumption levels are very uneven, with a factor of more than 60 between the country with the lowest and highest consumption in 2009. On average, each human being consumed 10 tonnes of materials in 2009, 2 tonnes more than in 1980. We discuss whether decoupling of economies’ growth from resource use has occurred and analyse interrelations of material use with human development. Finally, we elaborate on key environmental problems related to various material groups.

  7. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  8. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  9. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  10. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  11. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  12. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  13. International Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Poggi, Jean-Michel; Brossat, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The chapters in this volume stress the need for advances in theoretical understanding to go hand-in-hand with the widespread practical application of forecasting in industry. Forecasting and time series prediction have enjoyed considerable attention over the last few decades, fostered by impressive advances in observational capabilities and measurement procedures. On June 5-7, 2013, an international Workshop on Industry Practices for FORecasting was held in Paris, France, organized and supported by the OSIRIS Department of Electricité de France Research and Development Division. In keeping with tradition, both theoretical statistical results and practical contributions on this active field of statistical research and on forecasting issues in a rapidly evolving industrial environment are presented. The volume reflects the broad spectrum of the conference, including 16 articles contributed by specialists in various areas. The material compiled is broad in scope and ranges from new findings on forecasting in in...

  14. The material, moral, and affective worlds of dealing and crime among young men entrenched in an inner city drug scene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, Danya; Shoveller, Jean; Kerr, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    A large body of previous research has elucidated how involvement in drug dealing and crime among marginalized urban youth who use drugs is shaped by the imperatives of addiction and survival in the context of poverty. However, a growing body of research has examined how youth's involvement in these activities is shaped by more expansive desires and moralities. In this paper, we examine the material, moral, and affective worlds of loosely gang affiliated, street level dealing and crime among one group of young men in Vancouver, Canada. Drawing on longitudinal interviews with 44 young men from 2008 to 2016, and ethnographic fieldwork with a group of approximately 15 of those young men over the same time period, we argue that for these youth, dealing and crime were not solely about economic survival, or even the accrual of highly meaningful forms of "street capital" in the margins. Rather, as "regimes of living," dealing and crime also opened up new value systems, moral logics, and affects in relation to the tremendous risks, potential rewards, and crushing boredom of life in the margins. These activities were also understood as a way into deeply desired forms of social spatial belonging in the city, which had previously only been imagined. However, across time dealing and crime "embedded" young men in cycles of incarceration, destitution, addictions, and mental health crises that ultimately reinforced their exclusion-from legal employment, but also within the world of crime. The findings of this study underscore the importance of adopting a life course perspective in order to meaningfully address the harms associated with involvement in dealing and crime among youth in our setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Risky Business: Development, Communication and Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Inter-seasonal and longer hydroclimatic forecasts have been made increasingly in the last two decades following the increase in ENSO activity since the early 1980s and the success in seasonal ENSO forecasting. Yet, the number of examples of systematic use of these forecasts and their incorporation into water systems operation continue to be few. This may be due in part to the limited skill in such forecasts over much of the world, but is also likely due to the limited evolution of methods and opportunities to "safely" use uncertain forecasts. There has been a trend to rely more on "physically based" rather than "physically informed" empirical forecasts, and this may in part explain the limited success in developing usable products in more locations. Given the limited skill, forecasters have tended to "dumb" down their forecasts - either formally or subjectively shrinking the forecasts towards climatology, or reducing them to tercile forecasts that serve to obscure the potential information in the forecast. Consequently, the potential utility of such forecasts for decision making is compromised. Water system operating rules are often designed to be robust in the face of historical climate variability, and consequently are adapted to the potential conditions that a forecast seeks to inform. In such situations, there is understandable reluctance by managers to use the forecasts as presented, except in special cases where an alternate course of action is pragmatically appealing in any case. In this talk, I review opportunities to present targeted forecasts for use with decision systems that directly address climate risk and the risk induced by unbiased yet uncertain forecasts, focusing especially on extreme events and water allocation in a competitive environment. Examples from Brazil and India covering surface and ground water conjunctive use strategies that could potentially be insured and lead to improvements over the traditional system operation and resource

  16. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yishuai; Rong, Xinyao; Liu, Zhengyu

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill for sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further proved using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but could be distorted by sampling errors and non-AR1 processes. This study suggests that the so called "perfect skill" is model dependent and cannot serve as an accurate estimate of the true upper limit of real world prediction skill, unless the model can capture at least the persistence property of the observation.

  17. A case study comparing children???s motivation using a virtual world,video and print material to learn global citizenship.

    OpenAIRE

    O'Tuathail, Padraic

    2011-01-01

    non-peer-reviewed The last decade has seen an enormous surge in the use of virtual worlds by both adults and children. Educators are keen to discover how this technology can be transferred to the classroom to facilitate effective learning. The aim of this study was to compare children???s motivation with three media components: a virtual world, video and print materials. The intervention involved 27 children in first class in a primary school using components of the Panwapa website over...

  18. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  19. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  20. Status of mineral resources evaluation and forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Hanfeng; Li Ziying; Luo Yi; Li Shengxiang; Sun Wenpeng

    2007-01-01

    The work of resources evaluation and forecast is a focus to the governments of every country in the world, it is related to the establishment of strategic policy on the national mineral resources. In order to quantitatively evaluate the general potential of uranium resources in China and better forecast uranium deposits, this paper briefly introduces the method of evaluating total amount of mineral resources, especially 6 usual prospective methods which are recommended in international geology comparison programs, as well as principle of usual mineral resources quantitative prediction and its steps. The work history of mineral resources evaluation and forecast is reviewed concisely. Advantages and disadvantages of each method, their application field and condition are also explained briefly. At last, the history of uranium resources evaluation and forecast in China and its status are concisely outlined. (authors)

  1. The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta BARBULESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

  2. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

  3. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-08-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  4. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-01-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms -1 and around 25 ms -1 . A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  5. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  6. Meteorology and dispersion forecast in nuclear emergency in Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunst, Juan J.; Boutet, Luis I.; Jordan, Osvaldo D.; Hernandez, Daniel G.; Guichandut, M.E.; Chiappesoni, H.

    2008-01-01

    The 'Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) (ARN in Spanish)' and the 'National Meteorological Office (NMO) (SMN in Spanish)' of Argentine has been working together on the improvement of both meteorological forecasting and dispersion prediction. In the pre-release phase of a nuclear emergency, it is very important to know the wind direction and the forecast of it, to establish the area, around the installation, where the emergency state is declared and to foresee the modification of this area. Information is also needed about deterministic effects, to begin the evacuation. At this time, meteorological forecast of wind direction and speed, and the real time meteorological information is available in the nuclear power plant (NPP) and in the Nuclear Emergency Control Centre at the ARN headquarters, together with the short-range dose calculation provided by our dispersion code, SEDA. By means of the SEDA code, we can estimate the optimum place to measure the radioactive material concentration in air, needed do to reduce evaluation uncertainties due, among others, to poor knowledge of the source term. The SEDA code allows considering atmospheric condition, and the need to reduced doses of the measuring team in charge of the measurements. For the evaluation in the medium range, we participate in the project IXP, which provides four hours and about 50 kilometres forecast. In the long-range movement of air borne radioactivity, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), whose contact point in Argentina is the SMN, can assist us. We have developed together, with the SMN, a detailed procedure to request assistance from the WMO. In this work, we describe the combined tasks that were carried out with the SMN to define the procedures and the concepts for their application during a real emergency. The results of an application exercise carried out in 2006 are also described. (author)

  7. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  8. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  9. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  10. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey...... and forecasts have on on-line runoff forecast quality. Finally, we implement the stochastic grey-box model approach in a real-world real-time control (RTC) setup and study how RTC can benefit from a dynamic quantification of runoff forecast uncertainty....

  11. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  12. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  13. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  14. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  15. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  16. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  17. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2015-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics."" -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both

  18. Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Fu Wu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Time series prediction has become more popular in various kinds of applications such as weather prediction, control engineering, financial analysis, industrial monitoring, etc. To deal with real-world problems, we are often faced with missing values in the data due to sensor malfunctions or human errors. Traditionally, the missing values are simply omitted or replaced by means of imputation methods. However, omitting those missing values may cause temporal discontinuity. Imputation methods, on the other hand, may alter the original time series. In this study, we propose a novel forecasting method based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM. We employ the input patterns with the temporal information which is defined as local time index (LTI. Time series data as well as local time indexes are fed to LSSVM for doing forecasting without imputation. We compare the forecasting performance of our method with other imputation methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method is promising and is worth further investigations.

  19. A mathematical model to forecast uranium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camisani-Calzolari, F.A.G.M.

    1987-01-01

    The uranium production forecasting program described in this paper projects production from reasonably assured, estimated additional and speculative resources in the cost categories of less than $130/kg U. Originally designed to handle South African production, it has been expanded and redimensioned using available published information to forecast production for countries of the Western World. The program forecasts production from up to 400 plants over a period of fifty years and has built-in production models derived from documented historical data of the more important uranium provinces. It is particularly suitable to assess production capabilities on a national and global scale where variations in outputs for the individual plants tend to even out. The program is aimed at putting the uranium potential of any one country into a realistic perspective, and it could thus be useful for planning purposes and marketing strategies

  20. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  1. "We want the world and we want it now": Materialism, time perspectives and problem spending tendency of Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Lisbeth; Wu, Anise M S; Lao, Angie K P; Lam, Kerwin I N

    2016-10-06

    Chinese consumers' spending has been expanding rapidly in the past decade, and along with it household and credit card debt. The present research collected evidence to triangulate the contention that materialism is positively related with Chinese's problem spending tendency (PST), and that present-time-perspective (PTP) and future-time perspectives (FTP) interact systematically with materialism to affect PST. A survey of the general population in Macao, China (Study 1; N = 239) confirmed that materialism was positively correlated with PST. An interaction between materialism and PTP intensified the relationship, whereas an interaction with FTP weakened the relationship. Another survey with a sample of university students (Study 2; N = 223) again found positive relationships among PST, materialism, and PTP, as measured by temporal discount rate. But further exploration showed that PST was only related with temporal discounting among high materialists, but not among low materialists. Study 3 experimentally examined the causal effects of materialism and FTP on PST. When being primed of an orientation towards materialism (n = 33), the participants' planned consumption doubled that of the control group (n = 31). A FTP prime interacted with materialism prime and put a "damper" on participants' planned spending (n = 29), compared to their counterparts who were not primed of such a time perspective. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

  2. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  3. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  4. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  5. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  6. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  7. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  8. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  9. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  10. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  11. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  12. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  13. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  14. A Multimedia Bibliography of Weather Materials for Schools. Climatological Publications, Bibliography Series No. 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roseman, Steven, Ed.; Ray, Henry, Ed.

    This bibliography identifies multimedia weather resources for elementary and secondary schools in Arizona. Content of the materials includes weather forecasting techniques, storms, clouds, the atmosphere, wind, radar, humidity, precipitation, and world climate regions. The first section of the bibliography lists 47 books, most of which were…

  15. Relations of alternativeness in the fiction world picture of the detective (on the material of novels by P.Cornwell

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya G. Sklyarova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the role of alternative in modelling the world picture in P. Cornwell’s detective novels «All That Remains», «The Body of Evidence», «Postmortem». Results of the research implying distributional and contextual methods of analysis testify that alternative relations, complicated by incremental meaning of insufficient knowledge and correction serve for reconstruction of the investigation, crime scenes, criminal’s personality and various details, essential for solving the crime. They can occur in the inner represented speech of the main character, the medical examiner Kay Scarpetta and in her dialogues with the investigators. Constructions of alternative semantics, used for explanation, contain specific terms, jargonisms and their definitions, which helps to introduce to the reader the realities of medical examiner’s and investigator’s routine work. Parts of the sentence or separate sentences, connected by the disjunctive conjunctions, contain words relating to criminology and forensic medicine, which contributes to the creation of the atmosphere of the detective novel. The research confirms once again the fact that the use of conjunctions of alternative semantics in definite contextual environment brings about the actualization of certain types of alternative relations which reflect such fragments of individual world picture that seem significant in terms of the content of fiction work.

  16. Too Many, Too Few, or Just Right? Making Sense Of Conflicting RN Supply and Demand Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spetz, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of future supply and demand of health professionals are tools to guide policy, not a final statement about how the world will be in the future. Recent forecasts of RN supply and demand vary widely and are incredibly confusing for nurse leaders, nurse educators, and policymakers. To effectively incorporate forecasts into policy and planning, one must understand the structure of the forecasts and underlying assumptions. One should treat all forecasts cautiously, and use them as guides to policy rather than definitive future outcomes.

  17. Artificial Intelligence as a Business Forecasting and Error Handling Tool

    OpenAIRE

    Md. Tabrez Quasim; Rupak Chattopadhyay

    2015-01-01

     Any business enterprise must rely a lot on how well it can predict the future happenings. To cope up with the modern global customer demand, technological challenges, market competitions etc., any organization is compelled to foresee the future having maximum impact and least chances of errors. The traditional forecasting approaches have some limitations. That is why the business world is adopting the modern Artificial Intelligence based forecasting techniques. This paper has tried to presen...

  18. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  19. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  20. Development of methods for forecasting properties of polymer packaging materials which do not cause any change in medicinal preparation during their sterilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krivonosov, A.I.; Postrigan, M.V.

    1975-01-01

    The authors present the results of an investigation of the effect of gamma radiation on the properties of low-molecular moulded polymethyl methacrylates (molecular weight distribution, physicomechanical properties, resistance to the effects of aqueous media and physiological solution) in the form of copolymers of methyl methacrylate with methyl (MA) or butyl acrylate (BA) with the brand names Dacryl-4B, Dacryl-2M and Dacryl-4M (4% BA; 2 and 4% MA respectively) having a molecular weight of around 10 5 . For comparison, block polymethyl methacrylate with a molecular weight of 3 x 10 6 was used. The results of experiments on the ageing of unirradiated and irradiated specimens in a heated store-room (t = 10 - 20 0 C) and at high temperatures (90 0 C) are also given. It is shown that irradiation with doses of 2.5-20 Mrad leads to radiolysis of the above copolymers, accompanied by destructive processes. Evidence of this is an increase in the polydispersity of the materials and a reduction in their mean molecular weight. These changes impair their physicomechanical characteristics to some extent. Irradiation with a sterilizing dose of 2.5 Mrad reduces the strength indices by around 15%, which is quite acceptable for polymer products having high initial physicomechanical characteristics. Irradiation has practically no effect on the molecular and strength characteristics of Dacryl products in a heated room, and the change in physicomechanical properties resulting from storage at high temperatures is practically the same for unirradiated specimens. On the basis of these results the materials investigated can be recommended for the packaging of medicinal preparations. (author)

  1. A Juridical Insight of Brave New World: The Eugenics Found on the Selection Criteria of Genetic Material for the Assisted Human Reproduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alban

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the teachings of the “Law in the Literature” movement, as well as the method of the Phemenological Hermeneutics, the present essay intends to discuss the eugenics content present in the abstract criteria for donating genetic material in Brazil. In order to present this problem clearly for the reader, the novel Brave New World, from Aldous Huxley, will be used as an example. Opportunely, it will deal with the recent situation regarding the investigation of the London Sperm Bank donators’ politics, in which important debates related to the genetic selection aiming for avoiding congenital diseases appear.

  2. Up-to-date subject matter of world research in the field of materials for power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozlowski, R.H.

    1998-01-01

    New approach to the problem of composition of present-day materials, which are working in high temperatures assumes that their microstructure becomes a subject of analysis-not an object-as it was before. Nowadays many industrial and university laboratories deal with these problems, individually or in the cooperation, in framework of the different types of projects, financed by the international organizations. In the report, research realized over the last 20 years in USA, Europe and japan have been reviewed. This research focused on the working in high temperatures steels as a constructional materials for pipes and other units of the power plants. According to the newest achievement in this domain we could expect that the ferritic and ferro-martensitic alloy steels will become new generation of the high-temperature creep-resisting steels (author)

  3. "We want the world and we want it now": Materialism, time perspectives and problem spending tendency of Chinese

    OpenAIRE

    Ku, L.; Wu, Anise M. S.; Lao, Angie K. P.; Lam, Kerwin I. N.

    2016-01-01

    The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link. Chinese consumers' spending has been expanding rapidly in the past decade, and along with it household and credit card debt. The present research collected evidenced to triangulate the contention that materialism is positively related with Chinese's problem spending tendency (PST), and that present- and future-time perspectives interact systema...

  4. Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

    2016-07-01

    Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.

  5. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  6. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  7. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  8. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  9. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  10. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  11. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  12. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  13. Cognitive stereotypes, forming the concept “business lady” in naïve world picture (on the material of Russian and German languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badanyan Irina Felixovna

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available On the material of modern media texts in Russian and German it is described linguacultural specificity of the concept “business lady” through the cognitive system of stereotypes, reflecting the typical notions of modern business lady in the naive picture of the world. The practical material for the article was the text information, analytical and business publications, published in the print or electronic media in Russian and German. The study implied the methods of frame modeling and contextual analysis. It is identified cognitive layers of the concept, investigated the specificity of its lexical and semantic representations. On the basis of the selected cognitive signs frame structure “business lady” is considered as a set of slots that objectifies the typical signs of a business lady, typical of Russian and German world pictures. It was found that the stereotypical image of a business lady has a certain set of features – professional and moral qualities, intellectual ability, education, behavior, appearance, age, etc. Thus the formation of a business lady’s image in media texts takes place in close connection with the formation of stereotypes about women in the field of business relations, i.e. relying on certain standardized representation of business lady, which are fixed in the public mind.

  14. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  15. Forecast of wind energy production and ensuring required balancing power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkulov, M.

    2010-01-01

    The wind energy is gaining larger part of the energy mix around the world as well as in Bulgaria. Having in mind the irregularity of the wind, we are in front of a challenge for management of the power grid in new unknown conditions. The world's experience has proven that there could be no effective management of the grid without forecasting tools, even with small scale of wind power penetration. Application of such tools promotes simple management of large wind energy production and reduction of the quantities of required balancing powers. The share of the expenses and efforts for forecasting of the wind energy is incomparably small in comparison with expenses for keeping additional powers in readiness. The recent computers potential allow simple and rapid processing of large quantities of data from different sources, which provides required conditions for modeling the world's climate and producing sophisticated forecast. (author)

  16. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  18. System of the Wind Wave Operational Forecast by the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu.B. Ratner

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available System of the wind wave operational forecast in the Black Sea based on the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore numerical spectral model is represented. In the course of the system development the SWAN model was adapted to take into account the features of its operation at the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center. The model input-output is agreed with the applied nomenclature and the data representation formats. The user interface for rapid access to simulation results was developed. The model adapted to wave forecast in the Black Sea in a quasi-operational mode, is validated for 2012–2015. Validation of the calculation results was carried out for all five forecasting terms based on the analysis of two-dimensional graphs of the wave height distribution derived from the data of prognostic calculations and remote measurements obtained with the altimeter installed on the Jason-2 satellite. Calculation of the statistical characteristics of the deviations between the wave height prognostic values and the data of their measurements from the Jason-2 satellite, as well as a regression analysis of the relationship between the forecasted and measured wave heights was additionally carried out. A comparison of the results obtained with the similar results reported in the works of other authors published in 2009–2016 showed their satisfactory compliance with each other. The forecasts carried out by the authors for the Black Sea as well as those obtained for the other World Ocean regions show that the current level of numerical methods for sea wave forecasting is in full compliance with the requirements of specialists engaged in studying and modeling the state of the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as the experts using these results for solving applied problems.

  19. The Future of the World Economy is an Integrated World Economic Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Yurievich Glazyev

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Global changes in the modern world cannot be adequately described on the basis of neoliberal thinking and require a new approach. It can be formed on the basis of the cyclical-wave characterization of the development of mankind. The hypothesis about the wave-like development of the world economy with a certain cyclicity lies at the heart of thisresearch. The authors determined the economic basis of the formation, development and change of these waves (technological ways and technical revolutions. These changes reflect in the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy.The mechanism of these fluctuations is described by the theory of “large cycles of the economic conjuncture” by N. Kondratiev. The authors propose a methodology and methodological tools for analyzing and forecasting cyclic-wave processes in the economic development. The study has concluded that it is the regularities of K-cycles that allow one to correctly assess the ongoing processes in the world economy, to forecast possible variants of their development. The authors came to the conclusion that the development of the world economic structure is necessarily accompanied by a cyclical shift in the instruments of capital accumulation (material and financial expansion. These processes are reflected in the periodic replacement of scientific paradigms of economic development and management. The state always takes an active part in the phase of the dominance of productive capital, and the ideological paradigm is of a directing nature. While in the phase of domination of financial capital the liberal paradigm becomes dominant. We have substantiated the thesis about the transition from the American to the Asian systemic cycle of capital accumulation, which would inevitably lead in the middle of the 21st century to the shift of the center of the world economy from the West to the East. The paper concludes that the world is facing a change from the Monopolistic world economic structure to

  20. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  1. The role of customs services and World Customs Organization (WCO)'s enforcement programme to combat nuclear and other radioactive materials smuggling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saka, E.

    1999-01-01

    The World Customs Organization (established as the Customs Co-operation Council in 1952) is an independent inter-governmental body with world-wide membership (150) whose enforcement mission could be summarized as 'to assist its Members in strengthening their enforcement measures through training and technical programmes designed to combat Customs offences', which also include nuclear and other radioactive materials smuggling. One of the best strategies for an effective fight against illicit trafficking in nuclear and other radioactive materials is to stop their illegal movement at the national border before entering or leaving the country. From this point, Customs services are unique governmental cross-border control agencies, which are mostly located at national cross-border checking points. In addition to this local advantage, Customs expertise and authority in checking documents, goods, vehicles and passengers deserve special mentioning. It should also be noted that Customs services have great experience on how to combat and respond to transnational crime and criminals. On the other hand, in order to maximize on their experience, they should be furnished with sufficient authority for investigation, detection equipment and supported through relevant training programmes. In line with the request made by Member States, the World Customs Organization (WCO) Secretariat has recently developed an enforcement programme on combating nuclear and other radioactive materials smuggling. This programme is based on awareness raising, development of training materials, designing training programmes, promoting exchange of information and improving co-operation at all levels. The WCO Database, the WCO Regional Intelligence Liaison (RILO) project and WCO bilateral and multilateral co-operative initiatives are three key tools which enable Customs administrations to develop accurate, timely and rapid exchange of information and intelligence. Within the concept of international co

  2. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1981-01-01

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  3. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  4. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

  5. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  6. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  7. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  8. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  9. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  10. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  11. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  12. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  13. Materialism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnyk, Andrew

    2012-05-01

    Materialism is nearly universally assumed by cognitive scientists. Intuitively, materialism says that a person's mental states are nothing over and above his or her material states, while dualism denies this. Philosophers have introduced concepts (e.g., realization and supervenience) to assist in formulating the theses of materialism and dualism with more precision, and distinguished among importantly different versions of each view (e.g., eliminative materialism, substance dualism, and emergentism). They have also clarified the logic of arguments that use empirical findings to support materialism. Finally, they have devised various objections to materialism, objections that therefore serve also as arguments for dualism. These objections typically center around two features of mental states that materialism has had trouble in accommodating. The first feature is intentionality, the property of representing, or being about, objects, properties, and states of affairs external to the mental states. The second feature is phenomenal consciousness, the property possessed by many mental states of there being something it is like for the subject of the mental state to be in that mental state. WIREs Cogn Sci 2012, 3:281-292. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1174 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Specific Aspects of Forecasting and Perception of the Norm by Juniour Schoolchildren with Developmental Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna I. Akhmetzyanova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: juniour schoolchildren with special needs should take into account the existing system of norms and rules in the school space. They should understand both their own inner world and that of surrounding people, but in conditions of deficiency dysontogenesis, the inability to forecast the outcome of any situation and the use of irrational behavioural strategies reduce the opportunities for successful social adaptation. The purpose of this study is to identify the specifics of forecasting and understanding normative situations by juniour schoolchildren with musculoskeletal system disorder, as well as with vision, hearing and speech impairment. Materials and Methods: to study the forecasting specifics of juniour schoolchildren, we used the guessing game methodology by L. I. Peresleni. We studied the specific character of normative behaviour using a set of methodologies: Perception of the normative situation by A. K. Pashchenko, Anticipation of the outcome with violation of the norm by V. P. Ulyanova, and Identification of the cultural congruity of juniour schoolchildren by L. F. Bayanova. Results: the study made it possible to identify the forecasting characteristics of juniour schoolchildren with normative development and with vision, hearing, speech impairments and musculoskeletal disorder. Students with developmental disabilities experienced forecasting difficulties, associated with decreasing sustainability of voluntary attention and its distribution in the course of the activity. The perception of norms by schoolchildren with developmental disorders often depended on random, brightly coloured emotional events or objects. The norms were differentiated more successfully in a situation of communication, than in educational activity. Discussion and Conclusions: the obtained data are consistent with the results of the studies by national and foreign scientists, who note that children with health limitations lack understanding of the

  15. Statistical Uncertainty Estimation Using Random Forests and Its Application to Drought Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Junfei; Li, Ming; Wang, Weiguang

    2012-01-01

    Drought is part of natural climate variability and ranks the first natural disaster in the world. Drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating impacts on agriculture and water resources. In this study, a drought forecast model based on the random forest method is proposed to predict the time series of monthly standardized precipitation index (SPI). We demonstrate model application by four stations in the Haihe river basin, China. The random-forest- (RF-) based forecast model has ...

  16. World Hunger: Teaching about World Hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Jane

    1982-01-01

    Discusses the teaching of world hunger in the classroom. Controversial questions and map skills for students are discussed as well as activities for home economics and science classes. A list of resource materials is included. (AM)

  17. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  18. The categories of the lyrical character and the material world in the Joseph Brodsky’s love poetry (the collection “The new stanzas to Augusta”: the interaction features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayramova Karina Arturovna

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the problem of realization of the category of lyrical character in the Joseph Brodsky’s love poetry. The aspiration to characterize the lyrical character through details of the material world becomes the feature of the poet’s artistic worldview when the world of things symbolizes both emotional experiences of the character and his philosophy of creation. The vulnerability and finiteness of the material world in the late lyrics associate an inevitable end of physical existence of the character, but it consolidates the idea of creative immortality of love feeling.

  19. Forecasting the Demand for Information Security Personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy Alexandrovich Malyuk

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available During the formation of information society the problem of determining the demand for IS personnel (DfISP, consisting of IS specialists and IS practitioners, is of particular relevance at present. The goal of the paper is to calculate the demand for IS specialists (DfISS. To achieve it we used the informal heuristic methods and introduced some important indicators for DfISP forecast. As a validation of the conceptual approach proposed we show how to apply it on the regional level of one country on one real-world example. All the reasoning and calculations can be narrowed down to the DfISS forecasting within one corporation or IS professionals of a specific profile.

  20. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

  1. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  2. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  3. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-01-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  5. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  6. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  7. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  8. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  9. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  10. Materials

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Wyk, Llewellyn V

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available . It is generally included as part of a structurally insulated panel (SIP) where the foam is sandwiched between external skins of steel, wood or cement. Cement composites Cement bonded composites are an important class of building materials. These products... for their stone buildings, including the Egyptians, Aztecs and Inca’s. As stone is a very dense material it requires intensive heating to become warm. Rocks were generally stacked dry but mud, and later cement, can be used as a mortar to hold the rocks...

  11. The use of various interplanetary scintillation indices within geomagnetic forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Lucek

    Full Text Available Interplanetary scintillation (IPS, the twinkling of small angular diameter radio sources, is caused by the interaction of the signal with small-scale plasma irregularities in the solar wind. The technique may be used to sense remotely the near-Earth heliosphere and observations of a sufficiently large number of sources may be used to track large-scale disturbances as they propagate from close to the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, such observations have potential for use within geomagnetic forecasts. We use daily data from the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory, made available through the World Data Centre, to test the success of geomagnetic forecasts based on IPS observations. The approach discussed here was based on the reduction of the information in a map to a single number or series of numbers. The advantages of an index of this nature are that it may be produced routinely and that it could ideally forecast both the occurrence and intensity of geomagnetic activity. We start from an index that has already been described in the literature, INDEX35. On the basis of visual examination of the data in a full skymap format modifications were made to the way in which the index was calculated. It was hoped that these would lead to an improvement in its forecasting ability. Here we assess the forecasting potential of the index using the value of the correlation coefficient between daily Ap and the IPS index, with IPS leading by 1 day. We also compare the forecast based on the IPS index with forecasts of Ap currently released by the Space Environment Services Center (SESC. Although we find that the maximum improvement achieved is small, and does not represent a significant advance in forecasting ability, the IPS forecasts at this phase of the solar cycle are of a similar quality to those made by SESC.

  12. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  13. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  14. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  15. World helicopter market study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, B.; Pearson, R. W.; Greenwood, S. W.; Kaplan, L.

    1978-01-01

    The extent of the threat to the US helicopter industry posed by a determined effort by foreign manufacturers, European companies in particular, to supply their own domestic markets and also to penetrate export markets, including the USA is assessed. Available data on US and world markets for civil and military uses are collated and presented in both graphic and tabular form showing the past history of production and markets and, where forecasts are available, anticipated future trends. The data are discussed on an item-by-item basis and inferences are drawn in as much depth as appears justified.

  16. World law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harold J. Berman

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the world's environment and the protection of universal human rights. World law combines inter-state law with the common law of humanity and the customary law of various world communities.

  17. A New Coastal Flood Forecasting System for the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Kleermaeker, S.; Verlaan, M.; Kroos, J.; Zijl, F.

    2012-01-01

    The North Sea is one of the busiest seas in the world with dense ship traffic, fisheries, wind farming, recreation and many other activities. All these activities depend on the ‘marine weather’. Accurate forecasts of waves, currents and sea level are crucial for operational management and for

  18. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  19. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  20. Forecast Inaccuracies in Power Plant Projects From Project Managers' Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanabria, Orlando

    Guided by organizational theory, this phenomenological study explored the factors affecting forecast preparation and inaccuracies during the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the United States. Forecast inaccuracies can create financial stress and uncertain profits during the project construction phase. A combination of purposeful and snowball sampling supported the selection of participants. Twenty project managers with over 15 years of experience in power generation and project experience across the United States were interviewed within a 2-month period. From the inductive codification and descriptive analysis, 5 themes emerged: (a) project monitoring, (b) cost control, (c) management review frequency, (d) factors to achieve a precise forecast, and (e) factors causing forecast inaccuracies. The findings of the study showed the factors necessary to achieve a precise forecast includes a detailed project schedule, accurate labor cost estimates, monthly project reviews and risk assessment, and proper utilization of accounting systems to monitor costs. The primary factors reported as causing forecast inaccuracies were cost overruns by subcontractors, scope gaps, labor cost and availability of labor, and equipment and material cost. Results of this study could improve planning accuracy and the effective use of resources during construction of power plants. The study results could contribute to social change by providing a framework to project managers to lessen forecast inaccuracies, and promote construction of power plants that will generate employment opportunities and economic development.

  1. Forecasting volatility for options valuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belaifa, M.; Morimune, K.

    2006-01-01

    The petroleum sector plays a neuralgic role in the basement of world economies, and market actors (producers, intermediates, as well as consumers) are continuously subjected to the dynamics of unstable oil market. Huge amounts are being invested along the production chain to make one barrel of crude oil available to the end user. Adding to that are the effect of geopolitical dynamics as well as geological risks as expressed in terms of low chances of successful discoveries. In addition, fiscal regimes and regulations, technology and environmental concerns are also among some of the major factors that contribute to the substantial risk in the oil industry and render the market structure vulnerable to crises. The management of these vulnerabilities require modern tools to reduce risk to a certain level, which unfortunately is a non-zero value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to provide a modern technique to capture the oil price stochastic volatility that can be implemented to value the exposure of an investor, a company, a corporate or a Government. The paper first analyses the regional dependence on oil prices, through a historical perspective and then looks at the evolution of pricing environment since the large price jumps of the 1970s. The main causes of oil prices volatility are treated in the third part of the paper. The rest of the article deals with volatility models and forecasts used in risk management, with an implication for pricing derivatives. (author)

  2. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  3. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  4. Overview and forecast on forestry productions worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenjun, Zhang

    2007-02-01

    Our world is largely dependent upon the forestry productions. Through the exploitation of forest reserves, we manufacture various industrial products, furniture, and obtain fuel and energy. Forestry productions should be conducted without large-scale deforestation and environmental degradation. In present study we perform a review and forecast analysis on forestry productions worldwide, with the objectives of providing an insight into the trend for several types of forestry productions in the future, and providing referential data for sustainable forestry productions and environmental management. Polynomial functions are used to fit trajectories of forestry productions since 1961 and forecasts during the coming 20 years are given in detail. If the past pattern continues, world fibreboard production would dramatically grow and reach 224,300,000 +/- 44,400,000 m(3) by the year 2020, an increase up to 240.7 to 408.9% as compared to the present level. Roundwood production of the world would change by -55.5 to 70.4% and reach 3,526,600,000 +/- 2,066,800,000 m(3) by 2020. In 2020 world production of sawlogs and veneer logs would change by -100 to 164.6% and reach 1,212,900,000 +/- 1,242,600,000 m(3). Global wood fuel production would change by -68.9 to 1.4% and reach 1,130,900,000 +/- 600,800,000 m(3) by 2020. Forestry productions in developed countries would largely surpass productions in developing countries in the near future. World forestry production grew since 1961 excluding wood fuel. Roundwood and wood fuel account for the critical proportions in the forestry productions. Wood fuel production has being declined and rapid growing of roundwood production has slowed in recent years. Widespread use of regenerative wood substitutes and worldwide afforestation against deforestation will be among the most effective ways to reduce deforestation and environment degradation associated with forestry productions.

  5. A review of forecasting models for new products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Mas-Machuca

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The main objective of this article is to present an up-to-date review of new product forecasting techniques. Design/methodology/approach: A systematic review of forecasting journals was carried out using the ISI-Web of Knowledge database. Several articles were retrieved and examined, and forecasting techniques relevant to this study were selected and assessed. Findings: The strengths, weaknesses and applications of the main forecasting models are discussed to examine trends and set future challenges. Research limitations/implications: A theoretical reference framework for forecasting techniques classified into judgmental, consumer/market research, cause-effect and artificial intelligence is proposed. Future research can assess these models qualitatively. Practical implications: Companies are currently motivated to launch new products and thus attract new customers to expand their market share.  In order to reduce uncertainty and risk, many companies go to extra lengths to forecast sales accurately using several techniques. Originality/value: This article outlines new lines of research on the improvement of new product performance which will aid managers in decision making and allow companies to sustain their competitive advantages in this challenging world.

  6. Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.

  7. Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.

  8. A smart predictor for material property testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Wilson; Kanneg, Derek

    2008-01-01

    A reliable predictor is very useful for real-world industrial applications to forecast the future behavior of dynamic systems. A smart predictor, based on a novel recurrent neural fuzzy (RNF) scheme, is developed in this paper for multi-step-ahead prediction of material properties. A systematic investigation based on two benchmark data sets is conducted in terms of performance and efficiency. Analysis results reveal that, of the data-driven forecasting schemes, predictors based on step input patterns outperform those based on sequential input patterns; the RNF predictor outperforms those based on recurrent neural networks and ANFIS schemes in multi-step-ahead prediction of nonlinear time series. An adaptive Levenberg–Marquardt training technique is adopted to improve the robustness and convergence of the RNF predictor. Furthermore, the proposed smart predictor is implemented for material property testing. Investigation results show that the developed RNF predictor is a reliable forecasting tool for material property testing; it can capture and track the system's dynamic characteristics quickly and accurately. It is also a robust predictor to accommodate different system conditions

  9. Spontane strategier i innovationsnetværk: materialitetens betydning for stabiliseringen af virtuelle verdner som professionelt kommunikationsmedie [Spontaneous strategies in innovation networks: The importance of materiality in stabilising virtual worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Husted

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Much research has dealt with how social and organisational processes change when they take place in virtual spaces. This article considers innovation processes in which actors try to establish virtual worlds as platforms for professional communication. However, instead of focusing on internal communication processes in virtual worlds, the article seeks to question the dichotomy between physical and virtual worlds and to explore the importance of materiality in organising the virtual. Adopting a perspective inspired by actor-network theory, the article argues that physical places and objects do not only serve as context for innovation processes, but on the contrary are incorporated as strategic resources that actively help create the virtual worlds. The article is based on an empirical analysis of five Danish companies, and shows how companies make use of physical places and objects as strategic resources in the innovation process. Thus the article contributes to the literature on innovation in new media such as virtual worlds.

  10. Should we use seasonnal meteorological ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecasting? A case study for nordic watersheds in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert; Guay, Catherine

    2017-04-01

    Hydro-electricity is a major source of energy for many countries throughout the world, including Canada. Long lead-time streamflow forecasts are all the more valuable as they help decision making and dam management. Different techniques exist for long-term hydrological forecasting. Perhaps the most well-known is 'Extended Streamflow Prediction' (ESP), which considers past meteorological scenarios as possible, often equiprobable, future scenarios. In the ESP framework, those past-observed meteorological scenarios (climatology) are used in turn as the inputs of a chosen hydrological model to produce ensemble forecasts (one member corresponding to each year in the available database). Many hydropower companies, including Hydro-Québec (province of Quebec, Canada) use variants of the above described ESP system operationally for long-term operation planning. The ESP system accounts for the hydrological initial conditions and for the natural variability of the meteorological variables. However, it cannot consider the current initial state of the atmosphere. Climate models can help remedy this drawback. In the context of a changing climate, dynamical forecasts issued from climate models seem to be an interesting avenue to improve upon the ESP method and could help hydropower companies to adapt their management practices to an evolving climate. Long-range forecasts from climate models can also be helpful for water management at locations where records of past meteorological conditions are short or nonexistent. In this study, we compare 7-month hydrological forecasts obtained from climate model outputs to an ESP system. The ESP system mimics the one used operationally at Hydro-Québec. The dynamical climate forecasts are produced by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System4. Forecasts quality is assessed using numerical scores such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Ignorance score and also graphical tools such as the

  11. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  12. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  13. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  14. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  15. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  16. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  17. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  18. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  19. China in World Industrialization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    XU, Yi; van Leeuwen, Bas

    2016-01-01

    Combining the sectoral accounting method of the System of National Accounts (SNA) with new statistical materials from the United Nations, as well as historical research into various countries around the world, this paper arrives at an estimate of value added of Chinese and world industries between

  20. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  1. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  2. World gas supply-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rushby, I.L.

    1996-01-01

    The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

  3. An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth

    2017-10-01

    Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

  4. The World of Nothing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery A. Kayukov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a comparative analysis of knowledge about the world of nothingness. J. Boehme pointed to the fact that the world of Nothing is everlasting emptiness, where and wherein the material world could emerge. But the thing is that the world of absolute emptiness did not vanish at the moment of beginning of the world, quite the reverse, it has somehow been permanently enlarging. What will happen next is still a question. Perhaps our world will begin to be moving back on a new spiral of development, perhaps a real transition to the world of nothing will have appeared in this subtle place. For the present it is clear that these two worlds have not touched each other in mutually beneficial communication so far, and everything from our world passes into the world of nothing, and in general, the world of nothing ontologically appears to be much more existential than the world of apparent reality. What can give us some kind of key point at least, be some kind of organon in interaction with these two worlds - with the world of Nothing in which there is no matter and which cannot be perceived by any senses, and with the world of matter in which all senses are unstable and changeable? In our opinion, the only beacon and the instrument of knowledge can be the mind. To understand this phenomenon, by benefiting from a comparative methodology, this study investigates opinions of a number of philosophers, J. Boehme, G.V.F. Hegel, M. Heidegger, and J.P. Sartre, on the existence of the world of nothing.

  5. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  6. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-04-10

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  7. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  8. Data Assimilation at FLUXNET to Improve Models towards Ecological Forecasting (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks such as FLUXNET call for transformation of ecological research to increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. Ecological forecasting will also meet the societal need to develop better strategies for natural resource management in a world of ongoing global change. Traditionally, ecological forecasting has been based on process-based models, informed by data in largely ad hoc ways. Although most ecological models incorporate some representation of mechanistic processes, today’s ecological models are generally not adequate to quantify real-world dynamics and provide reliable forecasts with accompanying estimates of uncertainty. A key tool to improve ecological forecasting is data assimilation, which uses data to inform initial conditions and to help constrain a model during simulation to yield results that approximate reality as closely as possible. In an era with dramatically increased availability of data from observational and experimental networks, data assimilation is a key technique that helps convert the raw data into ecologically meaningful products so as to accelerate our understanding of ecological processes, test ecological theory, forecast changes in ecological services, and better serve the society. This talk will use examples to illustrate how data from FLUXNET have been assimilated with process-based models to improve estimates of model parameters and state variables; to quantify uncertainties in ecological forecasting arising from observations, models and their interactions; and to evaluate information contributions of data and model toward short- and long-term forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change.

  9. 11 World power conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masters, R.

    1981-01-01

    Papers presented to the 11 World power conference ''Power for our peace'' held in Munich in September, 1980 are shortly surveyed. A few papers were devoted to nuclear power, that represents its present- state-of-the-art in the world. Except for the paper presented by experts of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and a number of others, there is carefulness and realism with respect to nuclear power in the most part of the papers; its forecasted growth rates are rather moderate. Even in the IEA paper the total world nuclear installed capacity in 1985 is evaluated about 550 GW, that is substantially smaller earlier evaluations. It is acknowledged that the primary energy production almost in all countries will increase mainly due to nuclear power and coal. But there are no answers to the problems related to management of the nuclear power development and to the public opinion in many countries. It is underlined that the problems of world power supply can be solved only on an international basis [ru

  10. ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Torben; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.

    2003-01-01

    ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion...... emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly intooperational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development.......ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion....... ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidentalatmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making “ENSEMBLE” procedures...

  11. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    spare part has its own failure intensity; therefore, it is necessary to conduct a complete procedure for each part. If the average number of components of a complex asset were about 5000, along with the existence of a large number of resources, the forecasting by the trend extrapolating would practically require the newest information technologies. However, the analysis shows that in most cases 80-90% of component parts have a longer life than the asset itself. In addition, it is shown that during the life of the asset, these components do not fail, and that 10-15% of component parts have only rare failures (post optimal analysis of spare parts normative or do not show any failing tendency meaning that failures are random. This procedure remains to be applied to 2-4% of component parts. It does not present a significant problem due to the process automation. This model enables us to determine the parts to which the trend extrapolation procedure should be applied. Forecast is obtained by the use of the second model to existing data. The trend extrapolation forecast or any other kind of forecast does not need to be done for those spare parts for which the long time forecast is close to zero. Provision of spare parts for the maintenance system considering the range, quantity, time and place is crucial for successful functioning of the maintenance system and ultimately for the accuracy of material resources. On the other hand, stocks of spare parts are costly and required to be reduced. Costs need to be minimized while ensuring the successful functioning of the maintenance system.

  12. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  13. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  14. Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upadhyay, H.; Quintero, W.; Shoffner, P.; Lagos, L.

    2009-01-01

    The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data was developed to support the Department of Energy (DOE) mandated accelerated cleanup program. The schedule compression required close coordination and a comprehensive review and prioritization of the barriers that impeded treatment and disposition of the waste streams at each site. Many issues related to site waste treatment and disposal were potential critical path issues under the accelerated schedules. In order to facilitate accelerated cleanup initiatives, waste managers at DOE field sites and at DOE Headquarters in Washington, D.C., needed timely waste forecast and transportation information regarding the volumes and types of waste that would be generated by the DOE sites over the next 40 years. Each local DOE site has historically collected, organized, and displayed site waste forecast information in separate and unique systems. However, waste and shipment information from all sites needed a common application to allow interested parties to understand and view the complete complex-wide picture. The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data allows identification of total forecasted waste volumes, material classes, disposition sites, choke points, technological or regulatory barriers to treatment and disposal, along with forecasted waste transportation information by rail, truck and inter-modal shipments. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, has deployed the web-based forecast and transportation system and is responsible for updating the waste forecast and transportation data on a regular basis to ensure the long-term viability and value of this system. (authors)

  15. A new forecast presentation tool for offshore contractors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, M.

    2009-09-01

    Contractors working off shore are often very sensitive to both sea and weather conditions, and it's essential that they have easy access to reliable information on coming conditions to enable planning of when to start or shut down offshore operations to avoid loss of life and materials. Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI, recently, in cooperation with business partners in the field, developed a new application to accommodate that need. The "Marine Forecast Service” is a browser based forecast presentation tool. It provides an interface for the user to enable easy and quick access to all relevant meteorological and oceanographic forecasts and observations for a given area of interest. Each customer gains access to the application via a standard login/password procedure. Once logged in, the user can inspect animated forecast maps of parameters like wind, gust, wave height, swell and current among others. Supplementing the general maps, the user can choose to look at forecast graphs for each of the locations where the user is running operations. These forecast graphs can also be overlaid with the user's own in situ observations, if such exist. Furthermore, the data from the graphs can be exported as data files that the customer can use in his own applications as he desires. As part of the application, a forecaster's view on the current and near future weather situation is presented to the user as well, adding further value to the information presented through maps and graphs. Among other features of the product, animated radar and satellite images could be mentioned. And finally the application provides the possibility of a "second opinion” through traditional weather charts from another recognized provider of weather forecasts. The presentation will provide more detailed insights into the contents of the applications as well as some of the experiences with the product.

  16. An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Q. Hung

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness, the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall.

  17. Evaluating the spatio-temporal performance of sky imager based solar irradiance analysis and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, T.; Kalisch, J.; Lorenz, E.; Heinemann, D.

    2015-10-01

    Clouds are the dominant source of variability in surface solar radiation and uncertainty in its prediction. However, the increasing share of solar energy in the world-wide electric power supply increases the need for accurate solar radiation forecasts. In this work, we present results of a shortest-term global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecast experiment based on hemispheric sky images. A two month dataset with images from one sky imager and high resolutive GHI measurements from 99 pyranometers distributed over 10 km by 12 km is used for validation. We developed a multi-step model and processed GHI forecasts up to 25 min with an update interval of 15 s. A cloud type classification is used to separate the time series in different cloud scenarios. Overall, the sky imager based forecasts do not outperform the reference persistence forecasts. Nevertheless, we find that analysis and forecast performance depend strongly on the predominant cloud conditions. Especially convective type clouds lead to high temporal and spatial GHI variability. For cumulus cloud conditions, the analysis error is found to be lower than that introduced by a single pyranometer if it is used representatively for the whole area in distances from the camera larger than 1-2 km. Moreover, forecast skill is much higher for these conditions compared to overcast or clear sky situations causing low GHI variability which is easier to predict by persistence. In order to generalize the cloud-induced forecast error, we identify a variability threshold indicating conditions with positive forecast skill.

  18. Forecasting Energy CO2 Emissions Using a Quantum Harmony Search Algorithm-Based DMSFE Combination Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingsheng Gu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available he accurate forecasting of carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions from fossil fuel energy consumption is a key requirement for making energy policy and environmental strategy. In this paper, a novel quantum harmony search (QHS algorithm-based discounted mean square forecast error (DMSFE combination model is proposed. In the DMSFE combination forecasting model, almost all investigations assign the discounting factor (β arbitrarily since β varies between 0 and 1 and adopt one value for all individual models and forecasting periods. The original method doesn’t consider the influences of the individual model and the forecasting period. This work contributes by changing β from one value to a matrix taking the different model and the forecasting period into consideration and presenting a way of searching for the optimal β values by using the QHS algorithm through optimizing the mean absolute percent error (MAPE objective function. The QHS algorithm-based optimization DMSFE combination forecasting model is established and tested by forecasting CO2 emission of the World top‒5 CO2 emitters. The evaluation indexes such as MAPE, root mean squared error (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE are employed to test the performance of the presented approach. The empirical analyses confirm the validity of the presented method and the forecasting accuracy can be increased in a certain degree.

  19. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  20. Changing winds. BTM's world market update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, A.

    2006-01-01

    An update of what has happened in the past year in the worldwide wind energy market, and what is expected to happen in the near future, are given. In 2005, the USA was the world's single biggest wind market, installing 2431 MW. Data are also given for some European and Asian states, and Australasia. The increase in the USA was due to the reintroduction of the Production Tax Credit. Vestas maintained its position as world leader in turbine manufacture but its market share decreased from 34% to 27.9%. Data for all top ten manufacturers are given. In 2005, there were increases of up to 30% in the price of turbines due to an increase in cost of raw materials and increased profit margins in a seller's market. The increase in prices has had a marked impact on offshore systems where the economics were already marginal. Summaries of the future prospects of 15 individual countries are given, together with forecasts for 2011-2015

  1. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  2. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  3. Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Tulip; Stephanie Wallace

    2012-01-01

    We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.

  4. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  5. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  6. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  7. Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

    2013-06-01

    Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

  8. Electricity production by hydro power plants: possibilities of forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkans, J.; Zicmane, I.

    2004-01-01

    Hydro energy accounts for 17% of global electricity production and is the most important source of renewable energies actively used today, being at the same time the least influential ecologically. Its only disadvantages is that this kind of energy is difficult to forecast, which hinders not only the planning of tariffs, year budgets and investments, but also contractual negotiations in particular month. The paper shows that the forecasting of hydro energy production can be linked to certain natural processes, namely, to the cyclic behaviour observed for water flows of the world's rivers. The authors propose a method according to which the forecasting procedure is performed using the data of observations as signals applied to special digital filters transforming the water flow process into integral and differential forms, which after appropriate treatment are expected again in usual water flow units. For this purpose the water flow integral function is to be divided, by means of spectral analysis, into 'low-frequency' (with a semi-period of 44 years) and 'high-frequency' (4-6 year semi-periods) components, which are of different origin. Each of them should be forecasted separately, with the following summation of the results. In the research it is shown that the cyclic fluctuations of world rivers' water flows are directly associated with variations in the Solar activity. (authors)

  9. Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand

    OpenAIRE

    Tica, Josip; Kožić, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a forecasting model for the overnight stays of foreign tourists in Croatia. Tourism is one of the most important parts of the Croatian economy. It is particularly important in the context of the services sector. Regular and significant surpluses and the consumption of foreign guests are an important element of budget revenues, especially VAT. The ability to forecast the development of inbound tourism demand in a timely manner is crucial for both business...

  10. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  11. Forecasting market developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, T.

    1997-01-01

    Traditional planning in essence consists of linear extrapolation of established facts and experience. This approach was good enough until recently, when progress would be relatively foreseeable within a stable system. The situation has been changing with developments and modifications in the global economic sector proceeding at accelerated pace, so that conventional planning methods become hopelessly inadequate. The past is of low significance to emerging markets; planners today have to keep abreast with and take into account the possible and emerging influencing factors. Experience is a factor to be replaced by intelligent analysis and conclusion within the framework of system networks. Modern scenario modelling methods are based on this approach: They are able to simulate and forecast a whole range of ''possible futures'', derived from perceivable trends. The article illustrates the novel planning methodology by assessing the future of the renewable energy sources, applying a computerized planning method (vision design) which is based on intelligent comparative analysis of all relevant trends. (Orig./RHM) [de

  12. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

  13. World lines.

    OpenAIRE

    Waser Jürgen; Fuchs Raphael; Ribicic Hrvoje; Schindler Benjamin; Blöschl Günther; Gröller Eduard

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present World Lines as a novel interactive visualization that provides complete control over multiple heterogeneous simulation runs. In many application areas decisions can only be made by exploring alternative scenarios. The goal of the suggested approach is to support users in this decision making process. In this setting the data domain is extended to a set of alternative worlds where only one outcome will actually happen. World Lines integrate simulation visualization and...

  14. World nuclear outlook 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-09-29

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2015 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for two different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

  15. World nuclear outlook 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-01

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2010 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for three different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

  16. World nuclear outlook 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2010 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for three different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries

  17. World nuclear outlook 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2015 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for two different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries

  18. Command World

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wong, Leah Y; Lange, Douglas S; Sebastyn, Jerome T; Roof, William H

    2006-01-01

    .... The Command World scenario was expressly designed as a crisis action planning exercise in order to replicate the communications, collaboration, and information requirements inherent in a military...

  19. World status - nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, A.

    1984-01-01

    The problems of nuclear power are not so much anti-nuclear public opinion, but more the decrease of electricity consumption growth rate and the high cost of building reactors. Because of these factors, forecasts of world nuclear capacity have had to be reduced considerably over the last three years. The performance of reactors is considered. The CANDU reactor remains the world's best performer and overall tends to out-perform larger reactors. The nuclear plant due to come on line in 1984 are listed by country; this shows that nuclear capacity will increase substantially over a short period. At a time of stagnant demand this will make nuclear energy an important factor in the world energy balance. Nuclear power stations in operation and under construction in 1983 are listed and major developments in commercial nuclear power in 1983 are taken country by country. In most, the report is the same; national reactor ordering cut back because the expected increase in energy demand has not happened. Also the cost-benefit of nuclear over other forms of energy is no longer as favourable. The export opportunities have also declined as many of the less developed countries are unable to afford reactors. (U.K.)

  20. Case study of forecasting uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noritake, Kazumitsu

    1992-01-01

    PNC collects and analyzes information about uranium market trend, world uranium supply and demand, and world uranium resources potential in order to establish the strategy of uranium exploration. This paper outlines the results obtained to forecast uranium supply and demand. Our forecast indicates that 8,500 tU, accounting for one-sixth of the demand in the year 2001, must be met by uranium produced by mines to be newly developed. After 2019, demand cannot be met by the 123 mines currently in operation or expected to have gone into production by this year. The projected shortage must therefore be covered by uranium to be newly discovered. To preclude this occurrence, uranium exploration will have to be steadily continued in order to ensure future new uranium resources, to alleviate anxiety about future supply, and to prevent sharp price hikes. (author)

  1. Ecological Forecasting Project Management with Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiles, J. W.; Schmidt, Cindy; Estes, Maury; Turner, Woody

    2017-01-01

    Once scientists publish results of their projects and studies, all too often they end up on the shelf and are not otherwise used. The NASA Earth Science Division established its Applied Sciences Program (ASP) to apply research findings to help solve and manage real-world problems and needs. ASP-funded projects generally produce decision support systems for operational applications which are expected to last beyond the end of the NASA funding. Because of NASAs unique perspective of looking down on the Earth from space, ASP studies involve the use of remotely sensed information consisting of satellite data and imagery as well as information from sub-orbital platforms. ASP regularly solicits Earth science proposals that address one or more focus areas; disasters mitigation, ecological forecasting, health and air quality, and water resources. Reporting requirements for ASP-funded projects are different from those typical for research grants from NASA and other granting agencies, requiring management approaches different from other programs. This presentation will address the foregoing in some detail and give examples of three ASP-funded ecological forecasting projects that include: 1) the detection and survey of chimpanzee habitat in Africa from space, 2) harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the California Current System affecting aquaculture facilities and marine mammal populations, and 3) a call for the public to identify North America wildlife in Wisconsin using trail camera photos. Contact information to propose to ASP solicitations for those PIs interested is also provided.

  2. Forecasting performance of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR model on travel and leisure stock index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usman M. Umer

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Travel and leisure recorded a consecutive robust growth and become among the fastest economic sectors in the world. Various forecasting models are proposed by researchers that serve as an early recommendation for investors and policy makers. Numerous studies proposed distinct forecasting models to predict the dynamics of this sector and provide early recommendation for investors and policy makers. In this paper, we compare the performance of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR and linear autoregressive (AR models using monthly returns of Turkey and FTSE travel and leisure index from April 1997 to August 2016. MSCI world index used as a proxy of the overall market. The result shows that nonlinear LSTAR model cannot improve the out-of-sample forecast of linear AR model. This finding demonstrates little to be gained from using LSTAR model in the prediction of travel and leisure stock index. Keywords: Nonlinear time-series, Out-of-sample forecasting, Smooth transition autoregressive, Travel and leisure

  3. Training the next generation of scientists in Weather Forecasting: new approaches with real models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Glenn; Váňa, Filip; Siemen, Stephan; Kertesz, Sandor; Keeley, Sarah

    2014-05-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts operationally produce medium range forecasts using what is internationally acknowledged as the world leading global weather forecast model. Future development of this scientifically advanced model relies on a continued availability of experts in the field of meteorological science and with high-level software skills. ECMWF therefore has a vested interest in young scientists and University graduates developing the necessary skills in numerical weather prediction including both scientific and technical aspects. The OpenIFS project at ECMWF maintains a portable version of the ECMWF forecast model (known as IFS) for use in education and research at Universities, National Meteorological Services and other research and education organisations. OpenIFS models can be run on desktop or high performance computers to produce weather forecasts in a similar way to the operational forecasts at ECMWF. ECMWF also provide the Metview desktop application, a modern, graphical, and easy to use tool for analysing and visualising forecasts that is routinely used by scientists and forecasters at ECMWF and other institutions. The combination of Metview with the OpenIFS models has the potential to deliver classroom-friendly tools allowing students to apply their theoretical knowledge to real-world examples using a world-leading weather forecasting model. In this paper we will describe how the OpenIFS model has been used for teaching. We describe the use of Linux based 'virtual machines' pre-packaged on USB sticks that support a technically easy and safe way of providing 'classroom-on-a-stick' learning environments for advanced training in numerical weather prediction. We welcome discussions with interested parties.

  4. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholam Hossein Hasantash

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

  5. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  6. Forecasting of the energy consumption; Zamke prognoziranja potrosnje energije

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Z [Zagreb (Croatia)

    1997-12-31

    Urged by earlier continuous failures in forecasting the consumption of energy in the world, essentially characterized by megalomania, the author presents his views on causes of such occurrences. Fundamental cause is considered - logic of a circle - insensitive to social and economic effects on the humanity in general and particularly to the energy consumption. Besides, a lethal influence of voluntarism has been specially studied as well. (author). 13 refs.

  7. Optimal Control and Forecasting of Complex Dynamical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Grigorenko, Ilya

    2006-01-01

    This important book reviews applications of optimization and optimal control theory to modern problems in physics, nano-science and finance. The theory presented here can be efficiently applied to various problems, such as the determination of the optimal shape of a laser pulse to induce certain excitations in quantum systems, the optimal design of nanostructured materials and devices, or the control of chaotic systems and minimization of the forecast error for a given forecasting model (for example, artificial neural networks). Starting from a brief review of the history of variational calcul

  8. The new Met Office strategy for seasonal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewson, T. D.

    2012-04-01

    during the presentation. Another key component of the 3-month outlook is the focus it places on potential hazards and impacts. To date specific references have been made to snow and ice disruption, to replenishment expectation for regions suffering water supply shortages, and to windstorm frequency. This aspect will be discussed, showing also some subjective verification. In future we hope to extend the 3-month outlook framework to other parts of the world, notably Africa, a region where the Met Office, with DfID support, is working collaboratively to improve real-time long range forecasts. Brief reference will also be made to such activities.

  9. Wind power forecast using wavelet neural network trained by improved Clonal selection algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chitsaz, Hamed; Amjady, Nima; Zareipour, Hamidreza

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Presenting a Morlet wavelet neural network for wind power forecasting. • Proposing improved Clonal selection algorithm for training the model. • Applying Maximum Correntropy Criterion to evaluate the training performance. • Extensive testing of the proposed wind power forecast method on real-world data. - Abstract: With the integration of wind farms into electric power grids, an accurate wind power prediction is becoming increasingly important for the operation of these power plants. In this paper, a new forecasting engine for wind power prediction is proposed. The proposed engine has the structure of Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) with the activation functions of the hidden neurons constructed based on multi-dimensional Morlet wavelets. This forecast engine is trained by a new improved Clonal selection algorithm, which optimizes the free parameters of the WNN for wind power prediction. Furthermore, Maximum Correntropy Criterion (MCC) has been utilized instead of Mean Squared Error as the error measure in training phase of the forecasting model. The proposed wind power forecaster is tested with real-world hourly data of system level wind power generation in Alberta, Canada. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, it is compared with several other wind power forecast techniques. The obtained results confirm the validity of the developed approach

  10. Electricity price forecast using Combinatorial Neural Network trained by a new stochastic search method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abedinia, O.; Amjady, N.; Shafie-khah, M.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Presenting a Combinatorial Neural Network. • Suggesting a new stochastic search method. • Adapting the suggested method as a training mechanism. • Proposing a new forecast strategy. • Testing the proposed strategy on real-world electricity markets. - Abstract: Electricity price forecast is key information for successful operation of electricity market participants. However, the time series of electricity price has nonlinear, non-stationary and volatile behaviour and so its forecast method should have high learning capability to extract the complex input/output mapping function of electricity price. In this paper, a Combinatorial Neural Network (CNN) based forecasting engine is proposed to predict the future values of price data. The CNN-based forecasting engine is equipped with a new training mechanism for optimizing the weights of the CNN. This training mechanism is based on an efficient stochastic search method, which is a modified version of chemical reaction optimization algorithm, giving high learning ability to the CNN. The proposed price forecast strategy is tested on the real-world electricity markets of Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) and mainland Spain and its obtained results are extensively compared with the results obtained from several other forecast methods. These comparisons illustrate effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  11. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  12. Cyclone track forecasting based on satellite images using artificial neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Kovordanyi, Rita; Roy, Chandan

    2009-01-01

    Many places around the world are exposed to tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. In spite of massive efforts, a great number of people die each year as a result of cyclone events. To mitigate this damage, improved forecasting techniques must be developed. The technique presented here uses artificial neural networks to interpret NOAA-AVHRR satellite images. A multi-layer neural network, resembling the human visual system, was trained to forecast the movement of cyclones based on sate...

  13. Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Single-Equation and Multivariate VAR–Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerdesmeier Dieter

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting inflation is of key relevance for central banks, not least because the objective of low and stable inflation is embodied in most central banks’ mandates and the monetary policy transmission mechanism is well known to be subject to long and variable lags. To our best knowledge, central banks around the world use conditional as well as unconditional forecasts for such purposes. Turning to unconditional forecasts, these can be derived on the basis of structural and non-structural models. Among the latter, vector autoregressive (VAR-models are among the most popular tools.

  14. Superhabitable worlds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, René; Armstrong, John

    2014-01-01

    To be habitable, a world (planet or moon) does not need to be located in the stellar habitable zone (HZ), and worlds in the HZ are not necessarily habitable. Here, we illustrate how tidal heating can render terrestrial or icy worlds habitable beyond the stellar HZ. Scientists have developed a language that neglects the possible existence of worlds that offer more benign environments to life than Earth does. We call these objects "superhabitable" and discuss in which contexts this term could be used, that is to say, which worlds tend to be more habitable than Earth. In an appendix, we show why the principle of mediocracy cannot be used to logically explain why Earth should be a particularly habitable planet or why other inhabited worlds should be Earth-like. Superhabitable worlds must be considered for future follow-up observations of signs of extraterrestrial life. Considering a range of physical effects, we conclude that they will tend to be slightly older and more massive than Earth and that their host stars will likely be K dwarfs. This makes Alpha Centauri B, which is a member of the closest stellar system to the Sun and is supposed to host an Earth-mass planet, an ideal target for searches for a superhabitable world.

  15. Project in fiscal 1988 for research and development of basic technologies in next generation industries. Research and development of superconducting materials and superconducting elements (Achievement report on forecast and research of superconducting element technologies); 1988 nendo chodendo soshi gijutsu yosoku kenkyu seika hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1989-03-01

    With an objective to perform survey and forecast on the future of superconducting elements, collection of latest technological information and analyses of technological trends were carried out by members of the Technology Forecast and Research Committee. This paper summarizes the achievements therein. It was discovered that the Josephson element using an Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} barrier and an Nb electrode shows excellent characteristics with very good reproducibility. Trial fabrication of a four-bit micro processor was recently executed successfully by the SQUID gate using the above element. On the other hand, application of devices using high-temperature superconductors has not come out with an achievement. Although a large number of achievements have been released on mono-crystalline thin films that show good characteristics, development of substrates and barrier materials is still needed for device configuration. The method for manufacturing metal-based superconducting films has been established nearly completely as an elementary technology to develop the superconducting elements. However, making thinner the high-temperature superconducting films having been discovered recently is encountering a number of inherent problems, whereas the present stage is such that experimental discussions are being made. The process technologies, simulation, and evaluation technologies are basically the same as those for the metallic systems even for the oxide superconduction. (NEDO)

  16. Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

  17. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  18. Forecasting non-stationary diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria time-series in Niono, Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Guindo, Boubacar; Doumbia, Seydou

    2007-11-21

    Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions

  19. Stationarity test with a direct test for heteroskedasticity in exchange rate forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khin, Aye Aye; Chau, Wong Hong; Seong, Lim Chee; Bin, Raymond Ling Leh; Teng, Kevin Low Lock

    2017-05-01

    Global economic has been decreasing in the recent years, manifested by the greater exchange rates volatility on international commodity market. This study attempts to analyze some prominent exchange rate forecasting models on Malaysian commodity trading: univariate ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH models in conjunction with stationarity test on residual diagnosis direct testing of heteroskedasticity. All forecasting models utilized the monthly data from 1990 to 2015. Given a total of 312 observations, the data used to forecast both short-term and long-term exchange rate. The forecasting power statistics suggested that the forecasting performance of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is more efficient than the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) models. For ex-post forecast, exchange rate was increased from RM 3.50 per USD in January 2015 to RM 4.47 per USD in December 2015 based on the baseline data. For short-term ex-ante forecast, the analysis results indicate a decrease in exchange rate on 2016 June (RM 4.27 per USD) as compared with 2015 December. A more appropriate forecasting method of exchange rate is vital to aid the decision-making process and planning on the sustainable commodities' production in the world economy.

  20. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.