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Sample records for markov blanket method

  1. Classification Using Markov Blanket for Feature Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Luo, Jian

    2009-01-01

    Selecting relevant features is in demand when a large data set is of interest in a classification task. It produces a tractable number of features that are sufficient and possibly improve the classification performance. This paper studies a statistical method of Markov blanket induction algorithm...... for filtering features and then applies a classifier using the Markov blanket predictors. The Markov blanket contains a minimal subset of relevant features that yields optimal classification performance. We experimentally demonstrate the improved performance of several classifiers using a Markov blanket...... induction as a feature selection method. In addition, we point out an important assumption behind the Markov blanket induction algorithm and show its effect on the classification performance....

  2. A Markov blanket-based method for detecting causal SNPs in GWAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Bing

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detecting epistatic interactions associated with complex and common diseases can help to improve prevention, diagnosis and treatment of these diseases. With the development of genome-wide association studies (GWAS, designing powerful and robust computational method for identifying epistatic interactions associated with common diseases becomes a great challenge to bioinformatics society, because the study of epistatic interactions often deals with the large size of the genotyped data and the huge amount of combinations of all the possible genetic factors. Most existing computational detection methods are based on the classification capacity of SNP sets, which may fail to identify SNP sets that are strongly associated with the diseases and introduce a lot of false positives. In addition, most methods are not suitable for genome-wide scale studies due to their computational complexity. Results We propose a new Markov Blanket-based method, DASSO-MB (Detection of ASSOciations using Markov Blanket to detect epistatic interactions in case-control GWAS. Markov blanket of a target variable T can completely shield T from all other variables. Thus, we can guarantee that the SNP set detected by DASSO-MB has a strong association with diseases and contains fewest false positives. Furthermore, DASSO-MB uses a heuristic search strategy by calculating the association between variables to avoid the time-consuming training process as in other machine-learning methods. We apply our algorithm to simulated datasets and a real case-control dataset. We compare DASSO-MB to other commonly-used methods and show that our method significantly outperforms other methods and is capable of finding SNPs strongly associated with diseases. Conclusions Our study shows that DASSO-MB can identify a minimal set of causal SNPs associated with diseases, which contains less false positives compared to other existing methods. Given the huge size of genomic dataset

  3. Joint Markov Blankets in Feature Sets Extracted from Wavelet Packet Decompositions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gert Van Dijck

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Since two decades, wavelet packet decompositions have been shown effective as a generic approach to feature extraction from time series and images for the prediction of a target variable. Redundancies exist between the wavelet coefficients and between the energy features that are derived from the wavelet coefficients. We assess these redundancies in wavelet packet decompositions by means of the Markov blanket filtering theory. We introduce the concept of joint Markov blankets. It is shown that joint Markov blankets are a natural extension of Markov blankets, which are defined for single features, to a set of features. We show that these joint Markov blankets exist in feature sets consisting of the wavelet coefficients. Furthermore, we prove that wavelet energy features from the highest frequency resolution level form a joint Markov blanket for all other wavelet energy features. The joint Markov blanket theory indicates that one can expect an increase of classification accuracy with the increase of the frequency resolution level of the energy features.

  4. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Markov chain; state space; stationary transition probability; stationary distribution; irreducibility; aperiodicity; stationarity; M-H algorithm; proposal distribution; acceptance probability; image processing; Gibbs sampler.

  5. Spectral methods for quantum Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szehr, Oleg

    2014-05-08

    The aim of this project is to contribute to our understanding of quantum time evolutions, whereby we focus on quantum Markov chains. The latter constitute a natural generalization of the ubiquitous concept of a classical Markov chain to describe evolutions of quantum mechanical systems. We contribute to the theory of such processes by introducing novel methods that allow us to relate the eigenvalue spectrum of the transition map to convergence as well as stability properties of the Markov chain.

  6. Spectral methods for quantum Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szehr, Oleg

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this project is to contribute to our understanding of quantum time evolutions, whereby we focus on quantum Markov chains. The latter constitute a natural generalization of the ubiquitous concept of a classical Markov chain to describe evolutions of quantum mechanical systems. We contribute to the theory of such processes by introducing novel methods that allow us to relate the eigenvalue spectrum of the transition map to convergence as well as stability properties of the Markov chain.

  7. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Systat Software Asia-Pacific. Ltd., in Bangalore, where the technical work for the development of the statistical software Systat takes ... In Part 4, we discuss some applications of the Markov ... one can construct the joint probability distribution of.

  8. Hazardous Traffic Event Detection Using Markov Blanket and Sequential Minimal Optimization (MB-SMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixin Yan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The ability to identify hazardous traffic events is already considered as one of the most effective solutions for reducing the occurrence of crashes. Only certain particular hazardous traffic events have been studied in previous studies, which were mainly based on dedicated video stream data and GPS data. The objective of this study is twofold: (1 the Markov blanket (MB algorithm is employed to extract the main factors associated with hazardous traffic events; (2 a model is developed to identify hazardous traffic event using driving characteristics, vehicle trajectory, and vehicle position data. Twenty-two licensed drivers were recruited to carry out a natural driving experiment in Wuhan, China, and multi-sensor information data were collected for different types of traffic events. The results indicated that a vehicle’s speed, the standard deviation of speed, the standard deviation of skin conductance, the standard deviation of brake pressure, turn signal, the acceleration of steering, the standard deviation of acceleration, and the acceleration in Z (G have significant influences on hazardous traffic events. The sequential minimal optimization (SMO algorithm was adopted to build the identification model, and the accuracy of prediction was higher than 86%. Moreover, compared with other detection algorithms, the MB-SMO algorithm was ranked best in terms of the prediction accuracy. The conclusions can provide reference evidence for the development of dangerous situation warning products and the design of intelligent vehicles.

  9. Hierarchical Markov blankets and adaptive active inference. Comment on "Answering Schrödinger's question: A free-energy formulation" by Maxwell James Désormeau Ramstead et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhoff, Michael

    2018-03-01

    Ramstead MJD, Badcock PB, Friston KJ. Answering Schrödinger's question: A free-energy formulation. Phys Life Rev 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plrev.2017.09.001 [this issue] motivate a multiscale characterisation of living systems in terms of hierarchically structured Markov blankets - a view of living systems as comprised of Markov blankets of Markov blankets [1-4]. It is effectively a treatment of what life is and how it is realised, cast in terms of how Markov blankets of living systems self-organise via active inference - a corollary of the free energy principle [5-7].

  10. Methods to enhance blanket power density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, P.Y.; Miller, L.G.; Bohn, T.S.; Deis, G.A.; Longhurst, G.R.; Masson, L.S.; Wessol, D.E.; Abdou, M.A.

    1982-06-01

    The overall objective of this task is to investigate the extent to which the power density in the FED/INTOR breeder blanket test modules can be enhanced by artificial means. Assuming a viable approach can be developed, it will allow advanced reactor blanket modules to be tested on FED/INTOR under representative conditions

  11. Discounted Markov games : generalized policy iteration method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, van der J.

    1978-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two-person zero-sum discounted Markov games with finite state and action spaces. We show that the Newton-Raphson or policy iteration method as presented by Pollats-chek and Avi-Itzhak does not necessarily converge, contradicting a proof of Rao, Chandrasekaran, and Nair.

  12. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Systat Software Asia-Pacific. Ltd., in Bangalore, where the technical work for the development of the statistica' software ... concepts that are relevant for the application of MCMC methods and ... joint distribution of the vector N of the numbers of.

  13. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    levels. This is based on the famous Laws of Large Num- bers {LLN}: Let XI,X2,X3, ... of the volume of Ai nD to the volume of D (here volume ... This method depends on being able to generate' a sarnple ... casinos offering games of chance.

  14. Temperature scaling method for Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Lonnie D; Windus, Theresa L

    2009-01-22

    The use of ab initio potentials in Monte Carlo simulations aimed at investigating the nucleation kinetics of water clusters is complicated by the computational expense of the potential energy determinations. Furthermore, the common desire to investigate the temperature dependence of kinetic properties leads to an urgent need to reduce the expense of performing simulations at many different temperatures. A method is detailed that allows a Markov chain (obtained via Monte Carlo) at one temperature to be scaled to other temperatures of interest without the need to perform additional large simulations. This Markov chain temperature-scaling (TeS) can be generally applied to simulations geared for numerous applications. This paper shows the quality of results which can be obtained by TeS and the possible quantities which may be extracted from scaled Markov chains. Results are obtained for a 1-D analytical potential for which the exact solutions are known. Also, this method is applied to water clusters consisting of between 2 and 5 monomers, using Dynamical Nucleation Theory to determine the evaporation rate constant for monomer loss. Although ab initio potentials are not utilized in this paper, the benefit of this method is made apparent by using the Dang-Chang polarizable classical potential for water to obtain statistical properties at various temperatures.

  15. A New GMRES(m Method for Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing-Yuan Pu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a class of new accelerated restarted GMRES method for calculating the stationary probability vector of an irreducible Markov chain. We focus on the mechanism of this new hybrid method by showing how to periodically combine the GMRES and vector extrapolation method into a much efficient one for improving the convergence rate in Markov chain problems. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of our new algorithm on several typical Markov chain problems.

  16. Computation Method Comparison for Th Based Seed-Blanket Cores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolesnikov, S.; Galperin, A.; Shwageraus, E.

    2004-01-01

    This work compares two methods for calculating a given nuclear fuel cycle in the WASB configuration. Both methods use the ELCOS Code System (2-D transport code BOXER and 3-D nodal code SILWER) [4] are compared. In the first method, the cross-sections of the Seed and Blanket, needed for the 3-D nodal code are generated separately for each region by the 2-D transport code. In the second method, the cross-sections of the Seed and Blanket, needed for the 3-D nodal code are generated from Seed-Blanket Colorsets (Fig.1) calculated by the 2-D transport code. The evaluation of the error introduced by the first method is the main objective of the present study

  17. Stencil method: a Markov model for transport in porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgoshaie, A. H.; Tchelepi, H.; Jenny, P.

    2016-12-01

    In porous media the transport of fluid is dominated by flow-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying transmissibility field. Since the transmissibility is highly uncertain, many realizations of a geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo framework. One possible way to avoid the high computational cost of physics-based Monte Carlo simulations is to model the velocity field as a Markov process and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In previous works multiple Markov models for discrete velocity processes have been proposed. These models can be divided into two general classes of Markov models in time and Markov models in space. Both of these choices have been shown to be effective to some extent. However some studies have suggested that the Markov property cannot be confirmed for a temporal Markov process; Therefore there is not a consensus about the validity and value of Markov models in time. Moreover, previous spacial Markov models have only been used for modeling transport on structured networks and can not be readily applied to model transport in unstructured networks. In this work we propose a novel approach for constructing a Markov model in time (stencil method) for a discrete velocity process. The results form the stencil method are compared to previously proposed spacial Markov models for structured networks. The stencil method is also applied to unstructured networks and can successfully describe the dispersion of particles in this setting. Our conclusion is that both temporal Markov models and spacial Markov models for discrete velocity processes can be valid for a range of model parameters. Moreover, we show that the stencil model can be more efficient in many practical settings and is suited to model dispersion both on structured and unstructured networks.

  18. Method of operating water cooled reactor with blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Katsuo.

    1988-01-01

    Purpose: To increase the production amount of fissionable plutonium by increasing the burnup degree of blanket fuels in a water cooled reactor with blanket. Method: Incore insertion assemblies comprising water elimination rods, fertile material rods or burnable poison rods are inserted to those fuel assemblies at the central portion of the reactor core that are situated at the positions not inserted with control rods in the earlier half of the operation cycle, while the incore reactor insertion assemblies are withdrawn at the latter half of the operation cycle of a nuclear reactor. As a result, it is possible to increase the power share of the blanket fuels and increase the fuel burnup degree to thereby increase the production amount of fissionable plutonium. Furthermore, at the initial stage of the cycle, the excess reactivity of the reactor can be suppressed to decrease the reactivity control share on the control rod. At the final stage of the cycle, the excess reactivity of the reactor core can be increased to improve the cycle life. (Kamimura, M.)

  19. The spectral method and ergodic theorems for general Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagaev, S V

    2015-01-01

    We study the ergodic properties of Markov chains with an arbitrary state space and prove a geometric ergodic theorem. The method of the proof is new: it may be described as an operator method. Our main result is an ergodic theorem for Harris-Markov chains in the case when the return time to some fixed set has finite expectation. Our conditions for the transition function are more general than those used by Athreya-Ney and Nummelin. Unlike them, we impose restrictions not on the original transition function but on the transition function of an embedded Markov chain constructed from the return times to the fixed set mentioned above. The proof uses the spectral theory of linear operators on a Banach space

  20. A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ye

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.

  1. Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems. Markov models are useful in treating dependencies between components. The present paper shows how the adjoint Monte Carlo method for the continuous time Markov process can be derived from the method for the discrete-time Markov process by a limiting process. The straightforward extensions to the treatment of mean unavailability (over a time interval) are given. System unavailabilities can also be estimated; this is done by making the system failed states absorbing, and not permitting repair from them. A forward Monte Carlo method is presented in which the weighting functions are related to the adjoint function. In particular, if the exact adjoint function is known then weighting factors can be constructed such that the exact answer can be obtained with a single Monte Carlo trial. Of course, if the exact adjoint function is known, there is no need to perform the Monte Carlo calculation. However, the formulation is useful since it gives insight into choices of the weight factors which will reduce the variance of the estimator

  2. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in radiotherapy treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hugtenburg, R.P.

    2001-01-01

    The Markov chain method can be used to incorporate measured data in Monte Carlo based radiotherapy treatment planning. This paper shows that convergence to the measured data, within the target precision, is achievable. Relative output factors for blocked fields and oblique beams are shown to compare well with independent measurements according to the same criterion. (orig.)

  3. Design and fabrication methods of FW/blanket and vessel for ITER-FEAT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ioki, K. E-mail: iokik@itereu.de; Barabash, V.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Kalinin, G.; Miki, N.; Onozuka, M.; Osaki, T.; Rozov, V.; Sannazzaro, G.; Utin, Y.; Yamada, M.; Yoshimura, H

    2001-11-01

    Design has progressed on the vacuum vessel and FW/blanket for ITER-FEAT. The basic functions and structures are the same as for the 1998 ITER design. Detailed blanket module designs of the radially cooled shield block with flat separable FW panels have been developed. The ITER blanket R and D program covers different materials and fabrication methods in order make a final selection based on the results. Separate manifolds have been designed and analysed for the blanket cooling. The vessel design with flexible support housings has been improved to minimise the number of continuous poloidal ribs. Most of the R and D performed so far during EDA are still applicable.

  4. Design and fabrication methods of FW/blanket and vessel for ITER-FEAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ioki, K.; Barabash, V.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Kalinin, G.; Miki, N.; Onozuka, M.; Osaki, T.; Rozov, V.; Sannazzaro, G.; Utin, Y.; Yamada, M.; Yoshimura, H.

    2001-01-01

    Design has progressed on the vacuum vessel and FW/blanket for ITER-FEAT. The basic functions and structures are the same as for the 1998 ITER design. Detailed blanket module designs of the radially cooled shield block with flat separable FW panels have been developed. The ITER blanket R and D program covers different materials and fabrication methods in order make a final selection based on the results. Separate manifolds have been designed and analysed for the blanket cooling. The vessel design with flexible support housings has been improved to minimise the number of continuous poloidal ribs. Most of the R and D performed so far during EDA are still applicable

  5. Advanced methods comparisons of reaction rates in the Purdue Fast Breeder Blanket Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, R.N.; Ott, K.O.

    1988-01-01

    A review of worldwide results revealed that reaction rates in the blanket region are generally underpredicted with the discrepancy increasing with penetration; however, these results vary widely. Experiments in the large uniform Purdue Fast Breeder Blanket Facility (FBBF) blanket yield an accurate quantification of this discrepancy. Using standard production code methods (diffusion theory with 50 group cross sections), a consistent Calculated/Experimental (C/E) drop-off was observed for various reaction rates. A 50% increase in the calculated results at the outer edge of the blanket is necessary for agreement with experiments. The usefulness of refined group constant generation utilizing specialized weighting spectra and transport theory methods in correcting this discrepancy was analyzed. Refined group constants reduce the discrepancy to half that observed using the standard method. The surprising result was that transport methods had no effect on the blanket deviations; thus, transport theory considerations do not constitute or even contribute to an explanation of the blanket discrepancies. The residual blanket C/E drop-off (about half the standard drop-off) using advanced methods must be caused by some approximations which are applied in all current methods. 27 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  6. LISA data analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornish, Neil J.; Crowder, Jeff

    2005-01-01

    The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to simultaneously detect many thousands of low-frequency gravitational wave signals. This presents a data analysis challenge that is very different to the one encountered in ground based gravitational wave astronomy. LISA data analysis requires the identification of individual signals from a data stream containing an unknown number of overlapping signals. Because of the signal overlaps, a global fit to all the signals has to be performed in order to avoid biasing the solution. However, performing such a global fit requires the exploration of an enormous parameter space with a dimension upwards of 50 000. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods offer a very promising solution to the LISA data analysis problem. MCMC algorithms are able to efficiently explore large parameter spaces, simultaneously providing parameter estimates, error analysis, and even model selection. Here we present the first application of MCMC methods to simulated LISA data and demonstrate the great potential of the MCMC approach. Our implementation uses a generalized F-statistic to evaluate the likelihoods, and simulated annealing to speed convergence of the Markov chains. As a final step we supercool the chains to extract maximum likelihood estimates, and estimates of the Bayes factors for competing models. We find that the MCMC approach is able to correctly identify the number of signals present, extract the source parameters, and return error estimates consistent with Fisher information matrix predictions

  7. Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Liu, P.; Beerli, P.; Lu, D.; Hill, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used to evaluate model probability for quantifying model uncertainty. In a general procedure, MCMC simulations are first conducted for each individual model, and MCMC parameter samples are then used to approximate marginal likelihood of the model by calculating the geometric mean of the joint likelihood of the model and its parameters. It has been found the method of evaluating geometric mean suffers from the numerical problem of low convergence rate. A simple test case shows that even millions of MCMC samples are insufficient to yield accurate estimation of the marginal likelihood. To resolve this problem, a thermodynamic method is used to have multiple MCMC runs with different values of a heating coefficient between zero and one. When the heating coefficient is zero, the MCMC run is equivalent to a random walk MC in the prior parameter space; when the heating coefficient is one, the MCMC run is the conventional one. For a simple case with analytical form of the marginal likelihood, the thermodynamic method yields more accurate estimate than the method of using geometric mean. This is also demonstrated for a case of groundwater modeling with consideration of four alternative models postulated based on different conceptualization of a confining layer. This groundwater example shows that model probabilities estimated using the thermodynamic method are more reasonable than those obtained using the geometric method. The thermodynamic method is general, and can be used for a wide range of environmental problem for model uncertainty quantification.

  8. Lifting the Markov blankets of socio-cultural evolution. A comment on "Answering Schrödinger's question: A free-energy formulation" by Maxwell James Désormeau Ramstead et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leydesdorff, Loet

    2018-03-01

    Ramstead et al. [8] claim an encompassing ontology which can be used as a heuristics for studying life, mind, and society both empirically and in terms of computer simulations. The systems levels are self-organizing into a hierarchy; "Markov blankets" close the various levels for one another. Homo sapiens sapiens is placed at the top of this hierarchy as "the world's most complex living systems." Humans are said to generate "(epi)genetically-specified expectations that have been shaped by selection to guide action-perception cycles toward adaptive or unsurprising states."

  9. The spectral method and the central limit theorem for general Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagaev, S. V.

    2017-12-01

    We consider Markov chains with an arbitrary phase space and develop a modification of the spectral method that enables us to prove the central limit theorem (CLT) for non-uniformly ergodic Markov chains. The conditions imposed on the transition function are more general than those by Athreya-Ney and Nummelin. Our proof of the CLT is purely analytical.

  10. Preliminary investigation on welding and cutting methods for first wall support leg in ITER blanket module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohri, Kensuke; Suzuki, Satoshi; Enoeda, Mikio; Kakudate, Satoshi; Shibanuma, Kiyoshi; Akiba, Masato

    2006-08-01

    Concept of a module type of blanket has been applied to ITER shield blanket, of which size is typically 1mW x 1mH x 0.4mB with the weight of 4 ton, in order to enhance its maintainability and fabricability. Each shield blanket module consists of a shield block and four first walls which are separable from the shield block for the purpose of reduction of an electro-magnetic force in disruption events, radio-active waste reduction in the maintenance work and cost reduction in fabrication process. A first wall support leg, a part of the first wall component located between the first wall and the shield block, is required not only to be connected metallurgically to the shield block in order to withstand the electro-magnetic force and coolant pressure, but also to be able to replace the first wall more than 2 times in the hot cell during the life time of the reactor. Therefore, the consistent structure where remote handling equipment can be access to the joint and carry out the welding/cutting works perfectly to replace the first wall in the hot cell is required in the shield blanket design. This study shows an investigation of the blanket module no.10 design with a new type of the first wall support leg structure based on Disc-Cutter technology, which had been developed for the main pipe cutting in the maintenance phase and was selected out of a number of candidate methods, taking its large advantages into account, such as 1) a post-treatment can be eliminated in the hot cell because of no making material chips and of no need of lubricant, 2) the cut surface can be rewelded without any machining. And also, a design for the small type of Disc-Cutter applied to the new blanket module no.10 has been investigated. In conclusion, not only the good performance of Disc-Cutter technology applied to the updated blanket module, but also consistent structure of the simplified shield blanket module including the first wall support leg in order to satisfy the requirements in the

  11. Methods to enhance blanket power density in low-power fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, P.Y.; Miller, L.G.; Bohn, T.S.; Deis, G.A.; Longhurst, G.R.; Masson, L.S.; Wessol, D.E.; Abdou, M.A.

    1982-06-01

    The overall objective of this task is to investigate the extent to which the power density in the FED breeder blanket test modules can be enhanced by artificial means. Assuming a viable approach can be developed, it will allow testing of advanced reactor blanket modules on INTOR at representative conditions. The tentative approach adopted for this task consists of three parts. First, the requirements for augmented heating of the test module are outlined for different applications of interest. Second, methods are identified which have potential for augmenting the heating power in a test module, and this list of methods is narrowed to those which appear to be most useful. Finally, these methods are examined in more detail to determine the practical benefits of employing each

  12. Design and fabrication methods of FW/blanket, divertor and vacuum vessel for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ioki, K.; Barabash, V.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Ibbott, C.; Janeschitz, G.; Johnson, G.; Kalinin, G.; Miki, N.; Onozuka, M.; Sannazzaro, G.; Tivey, R.; Utin, Y.; Yamada, M.

    2000-01-01

    Design has progressed on the vacuum vessel, FW/blanket and Divertor for the Reduced Technical Objective/Reduced Cost (RTO/RC) ITER. The basic functions and structures are the same as for the 1998 ITER design [K. Ioki et al., J. Nucl. Mater. 258-263 (1998) 74]. Design and fabrication methods of the components have been improved to achieve ∼50% reduction of the construction cost. Detailed blanket module designs with flat separable FW panels have been developed to reduce the fabrication cost and the future radioactive waste. Most of the R and D performed so far during the Engineering Design Activities (EDAs) are still applicable. Further cost reduction methods are also being investigated and additional R and D is being performed

  13. Design and fabrication methods of FW/blanket, divertor and vacuum vessel for ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ioki, K. E-mail: iokik@itereu.deiokik@ipp.mpg.de; Barabash, V.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Ibbott, C.; Janeschitz, G.; Johnson, G.; Kalinin, G.; Miki, N.; Onozuka, M.; Sannazzaro, G.; Tivey, R.; Utin, Y.; Yamada, M

    2000-12-01

    Design has progressed on the vacuum vessel, FW/blanket and Divertor for the Reduced Technical Objective/Reduced Cost (RTO/RC) ITER. The basic functions and structures are the same as for the 1998 ITER design [K. Ioki et al., J. Nucl. Mater. 258-263 (1998) 74]. Design and fabrication methods of the components have been improved to achieve {approx}50% reduction of the construction cost. Detailed blanket module designs with flat separable FW panels have been developed to reduce the fabrication cost and the future radioactive waste. Most of the R and D performed so far during the Engineering Design Activities (EDAs) are still applicable. Further cost reduction methods are also being investigated and additional R and D is being performed.

  14. Design and fabrication methods of FW/blanket, divertor and vacuum vessel for ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioki, K.; Barabash, V.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Ibbott, C.; Janeschitz, G.; Johnson, G.; Kalinin, G.; Miki, N.; Onozuka, M.; Sannazzaro, G.; Tivey, R.; Utin, Y.; Yamada, M.

    2000-12-01

    Design has progressed on the vacuum vessel, FW/blanket and Divertor for the Reduced Technical Objective/Reduced Cost (RTO/RC) ITER. The basic functions and structures are the same as for the 1998 ITER design [K. Ioki et al., J. Nucl. Mater. 258-263 (1998) 74]. Design and fabrication methods of the components have been improved to achieve ˜50% reduction of the construction cost. Detailed blanket module designs with flat separable FW panels have been developed to reduce the fabrication cost and the future radioactive waste. Most of the R&D performed so far during the Engineering Design Activities (EDAs) are still applicable. Further cost reduction methods are also being investigated and additional R&D is being performed.

  15. A Bayesian method for construction of Markov models to describe dynamics on various time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rains, Emily K; Andersen, Hans C

    2010-10-14

    The dynamics of many biological processes of interest, such as the folding of a protein, are slow and complicated enough that a single molecular dynamics simulation trajectory of the entire process is difficult to obtain in any reasonable amount of time. Moreover, one such simulation may not be sufficient to develop an understanding of the mechanism of the process, and multiple simulations may be necessary. One approach to circumvent this computational barrier is the use of Markov state models. These models are useful because they can be constructed using data from a large number of shorter simulations instead of a single long simulation. This paper presents a new Bayesian method for the construction of Markov models from simulation data. A Markov model is specified by (τ,P,T), where τ is the mesoscopic time step, P is a partition of configuration space into mesostates, and T is an N(P)×N(P) transition rate matrix for transitions between the mesostates in one mesoscopic time step, where N(P) is the number of mesostates in P. The method presented here is different from previous Bayesian methods in several ways. (1) The method uses Bayesian analysis to determine the partition as well as the transition probabilities. (2) The method allows the construction of a Markov model for any chosen mesoscopic time-scale τ. (3) It constructs Markov models for which the diagonal elements of T are all equal to or greater than 0.5. Such a model will be called a "consistent mesoscopic Markov model" (CMMM). Such models have important advantages for providing an understanding of the dynamics on a mesoscopic time-scale. The Bayesian method uses simulation data to find a posterior probability distribution for (P,T) for any chosen τ. This distribution can be regarded as the Bayesian probability that the kinetics observed in the atomistic simulation data on the mesoscopic time-scale τ was generated by the CMMM specified by (P,T). An optimization algorithm is used to find the most

  16. Tritium extraction methods proposed for a solid breeder blanket. Subtask WP-B 6.1 of the European Blanket Program 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, H.

    1997-04-01

    Ten different methods for the extraction of tritium from the purge gas of a ceramic blanket are described and evaluated with respect to their applicability for ITER and DEMO. The methods are based on the conditions that the purge gas is composed of helium with an addition of up to 0.1% of H 2 or O 2 and H 2 O to facilitate the release of tritium, and that tritium occurs in the purge gas in two main chemical forms, i.e. HT and HTO. Individual process steps of many methods are identical; in particular, the application of cold traps, molecular sieve beds, and diffusors are proposed in several cases. Differences between the methods arise mainly from the ways in which various process steps are combined and from the operating conditions which are chosen with respect to temperature and pressure. Up to now, none of the methods has been demonstrated to be reliably applicable for the purge gas conditions foreseen for the operation of an ITER blanket test module (or larger ceramic blanket designs such as for DEMO). These conditions are characterized by very high gas flow rates and extremely low concentrations of HT and HTO. Therefore, a proposal has been made (FZK concept) which is expected to have the best potential for applicability to ITER and DEMO and to incorporate the smallest development risk. In this concept, the extraction of tritium and excess hydrogen is accomplished by using a cold trap for freezing out HTO/H 2 O and a 5A molecular sieve bed for the adsorption of HT/H 2 . (orig.) [de

  17. Markov chain-based mass estimation method for loose part monitoring system and its performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Hwan Shin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A loose part monitoring system is used to identify unexpected loose parts in a nuclear reactor vessel or steam generator. It is still necessary for the mass estimation of loose parts, one function of a loose part monitoring system, to develop a new method due to the high estimation error of conventional methods such as Hertz's impact theory and the frequency ratio method. The purpose of this study is to propose a mass estimation method using a Markov decision process and compare its performance with a method using an artificial neural network model proposed in a previous study. First, how to extract feature vectors using discrete cosine transform was explained. Second, Markov chains were designed with codebooks obtained from the feature vector. A 1/8-scaled mockup of the reactor vessel for OPR1000 was employed, and all used signals were obtained by impacting its surface with several solid spherical masses. Next, the performance of mass estimation by the proposed Markov model was compared with that of the artificial neural network model. Finally, it was investigated that the proposed Markov model had matching error below 20% in mass estimation. That was a similar performance to the method using an artificial neural network model and considerably improved in comparison with the conventional methods.

  18. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for statistical analysis of RF photonic devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piels, Molly; Zibar, Darko

    2016-01-01

    uncertainty is shown to give unsatisfactory and incorrect results due to the nonlinear relationship between the circuit parameters and the measured data. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are shown to provide superior results, both for individual devices and for assessing within-die variation...

  19. Cultural Markov blankets? Mind the other minds gap!. Comment on "Answering Schrödinger's question: A free-energy formulation" by Maxwell James Désormeau Ramstead et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veissière, Samuel

    2018-03-01

    Ramstead et al. have pulled an impressive feat. By combining recent developments in evolutionary systems theory (EST), machine learning, and theoretical biology, they seek to apply the free-energy principle (FEP) to tackle one of the most intractable questions in the physics of life: why and how do living systems resist the second law of thermodynamics and maintain themselves in a state of bounded organization? The authors expand on a formal model of neuronal self-organization to articulate a meta-theory of perception, action, and biobehaviour that they extend from the human brain and mind to body and society. They call this model "variational neuroethology" [1]. The basic idea is simple and elegant: living systems self-organize optimally by resisting internal entropy; that is, by minimizing free-energy. The model draws on, and significantly expands on Bayesian predictive-processing (PP) theories of cognition, according to which the brain generates statistical predictions of the environment based on prior learning, and guides behaviour by working optimally to minimise prediction errors. In the neuroethology account, free energy is understood as "a function of probabilistic beliefs" encoded in an organism's internal states about external states of the world. The model thus rejoins 'enactivist' and 'affordances' accounts in phenomenology and ecological psychology, in which 'reality' for a living organism is understood as perspective-dependent, and constructed from an agent's prior dispositions ("probabilistic beliefs" in Bayesian terms). In ecological terms, an organism operates in a niche within what its dispositions in relation to features of the environment 'afford'. Ramstead et al. borrow the concept of Markov Blanket from mathematics to describe the processing of internal states and beliefs through which an organism perceives its environment. In machine learning, a Markov Blank is a learning algorithm consisting of a network of nested 'parent' and 'children

  20. A fast exact simulation method for a class of Markov jump processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Hu, Lili

    2015-11-14

    A new method of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), named the Hashing-Leaping method (HLM), for exact simulations of a class of Markov jump processes, is presented in this paper. The HLM has a conditional constant computational cost per event, which is independent of the number of exponential clocks in the Markov process. The main idea of the HLM is to repeatedly implement a hash-table-like bucket sort algorithm for all times of occurrence covered by a time step with length τ. This paper serves as an introduction to this new SSA method. We introduce the method, demonstrate its implementation, analyze its properties, and compare its performance with three other commonly used SSA methods in four examples. Our performance tests and CPU operation statistics show certain advantages of the HLM for large scale problems.

  1. Investigation on welding and cutting methods for blanket support legs of fusion experimental reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokami, Ikuhide; Nakahira, Masataka; Kurasawa, Toshimasa; Sato, Satoshi; Furuya, Kazuyuki; Hatano, Toshihisa; Takatsu, Hideyuki; Kuroda, Toshimasa.

    1996-07-01

    A toroidally-and poloidally-divided modular blanket has been proposed for a fusion experimental reactor, such as ITER, to enhance its maintainability as well as improve its fabricability. The blanket module, typically the size of 1 m wide, 1-2 m high and 0.4 m deep and the weight of 4 ton, will be supported by support legs which are extruded from back of the module and connected to a 70-100 mm thick strong back plate. The support leg has to withstand large electromagnetic force during plasma disruption and provide the way for in-situ module replacement by remote handling. For the connection method of the support leg to the back plate, a welding approach has been investigated here in terms of its high reliability against the large electromagnetic loads. For the welding approach, the support leg needs to be 70 mm thick, and the working space for welding/cutting heads are limited to 100 mm x 150 mm adjacent to the support leg. Based on a comparison of several welding methods, e.g. NGTIG, NGMIG and laser, NGTIG has been selected as a reference due to its well-established technology and the least R and D required. As for the cutting method, a plasma cutting has been given the highest priority to be pursued because of its compactness and high speed. Through preliminary design studies, the possibility of small welding/cutting heads that will work in the limited space has been shown, and maintenance route for in-situ module replacement with pre-and postfixture of the module has been investigated. Also preliminary R and Ds have resulted in; 1)the welding distortion is predictable according to the shape of weld groove and adjustable to meet the placement requirement of the module first wall, 2)the plasma cut surface can be rewelded without machining, 3)the welding/cutting time will meet the requirement of maintenance time. (author)

  2. Advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods learning from past samples

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, Faming; Carrol, Raymond J

    2010-01-01

    This book provides comprehensive coverage of simulation of complex systems using Monte Carlo methods. Developing algorithms that are immune to the local trap problem has long been considered as the most important topic in MCMC research. Various advanced MCMC algorithms which address this problem have been developed include, the modified Gibbs sampler, the methods based on auxiliary variables and the methods making use of past samples. The focus of this book is on the algorithms that make use of past samples. This book includes the multicanonical algorithm, dynamic weighting, dynamically weight

  3. On the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    included a short appendix that gives basic definitions and results in this case. ... Moreover, the central limit theorem gives the order of error; the error here is ... Indeed, the common method to generate samples from N(0,1) also uses the idea of ...

  4. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in directed graphical models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højbjerre, Malene

    Directed graphical models present data possessing a complex dependence structure, and MCMC methods are computer-intensive simulation techniques to approximate high-dimensional intractable integrals, which emerge in such models with incomplete data. MCMC computations in directed graphical models h...

  5. A new fuzzy Monte Carlo method for solving SLAE with ergodic fuzzy Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Gharehdaghi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we introduce a new fuzzy Monte Carlo method for solving system of linear algebraic equations (SLAE over the possibility theory and max-min algebra. To solve the SLAE, we first define a fuzzy estimator and prove that this is an unbiased estimator of the solution. To prove unbiasedness, we apply the ergodic fuzzy Markov chains. This new approach works even for cases with coefficients matrix with a norm greater than one.

  6. Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahdoust, Maryam; Sadeghifar, Majid; Poorolajal, Jalal; Javanrooh, Niloofar; Amini, Payam

    2015-01-01

    Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates. The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively. The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.

  7. A Multilayer Hidden Markov Models-Based Method for Human-Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongben Tao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To achieve Human-Robot Interaction (HRI by using gestures, a continuous gesture recognition approach based on Multilayer Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs is proposed, which consists of two parts. One part is gesture spotting and segment module, the other part is continuous gesture recognition module. Firstly, a Kinect sensor is used to capture 3D acceleration and 3D angular velocity data of hand gestures. And then, a Feed-forward Neural Networks (FNNs and a threshold criterion are used for gesture spotting and segment, respectively. Afterwards, the segmented gesture signals are respectively preprocessed and vector symbolized by a sliding window and a K-means clustering method. Finally, symbolized data are sent into Lower Hidden Markov Models (LHMMs to identify individual gestures, and then, a Bayesian filter with sequential constraints among gestures in Upper Hidden Markov Models (UHMMs is used to correct recognition errors created in LHMMs. Five predefined gestures are used to interact with a Kinect mobile robot in experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method not only has good effectiveness and accuracy, but also has favorable real-time performance.

  8. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  9. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com

    2017-01-15

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  10. A Multistep Extending Truncation Method towards Model Construction of Infinite-State Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The model checking of Infinite-State Continuous Time Markov Chains will inevitably encounter the state explosion problem when constructing the CTMCs model; our method is to get a truncated model of the infinite one; to get a sufficient truncated model to meet the model checking of Continuous Stochastic Logic based system properties, we propose a multistep extending advanced truncation method towards model construction of CTMCs and implement it in the INFAMY model checker; the experiment results show that our method is effective.

  11. Experimental results and validation of a method to reconstruct forces on the ITER test blanket modules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeile, Christian; Maione, Ivan A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An in operation force measurement system for the ITER EU HCPB TBM has been developed. • The force reconstruction methods are based on strain measurements on the attachment system. • An experimental setup and a corresponding mock-up have been built. • A set of test cases representing ITER relevant excitations has been used for validation. • The influence of modeling errors on the force reconstruction has been investigated. - Abstract: In order to reconstruct forces on the test blanket modules in ITER, two force reconstruction methods, the augmented Kalman filter and a model predictive controller, have been selected and developed to estimate the forces based on strain measurements on the attachment system. A dedicated experimental setup with a corresponding mock-up has been designed and built to validate these methods. A set of test cases has been defined to represent possible excitation of the system. It has been shown that the errors in the estimated forces mainly depend on the accuracy of the identified model used by the algorithms. Furthermore, it has been found that a minimum of 10 strain gauges is necessary to allow for a low error in the reconstructed forces.

  12. Progress on the Fabrication Methods Development for the Korean Test Blanket Module First Wall in the ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Won; Kim, Suk Kwon; Bae, Young Dug; Yoon, Jae Sung; Cho, Seung Yon

    2010-01-01

    A Korean helium cooled molten lithium (HCML) test blanket module (TBM) has been designed to be tested in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) TBM and related fabrication methods have been developed especially for the purpose of joining. Since the first wall (FW) of the HCML TBM is composed of a beryllium (Be) as an armor material and a FMS as a structural one, joining with Be to FMS and FMS to FMS should be developed in order to fabricate it

  13. Damage evaluation by a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Hanfei; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Zhang, Jinjin

    2016-02-01

    Guided wave based structural health monitoring has shown great potential in aerospace applications. However, one of the key challenges of practical engineering applications is the accurate interpretation of the guided wave signals under time-varying environmental and operational conditions. This paper presents a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method to improve the damage evaluation reliability of real aircraft structures under time-varying conditions. In the proposed approach, an HMM based unweighted moving average trend estimation method, which can capture the trend of damage propagation from the posterior probability obtained by HMM modeling is used to achieve a probabilistic evaluation of the structural damage. To validate the developed method, experiments are performed on a hole-edge crack specimen under fatigue loading condition and a real aircraft wing spar under changing structural boundary conditions. Experimental results show the advantage of the proposed method.

  14. A Method for Driving Route Predictions Based on Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ye

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a driving route prediction method that is based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM. This method can accurately predict a vehicle’s entire route as early in a trip’s lifetime as possible without inputting origins and destinations beforehand. Firstly, we propose the route recommendation system architecture, where route predictions play important role in the system. Secondly, we define a road network model, normalize each of driving routes in the rectangular coordinate system, and build the HMM to make preparation for route predictions using a method of training set extension based on K-means++ and the add-one (Laplace smoothing technique. Thirdly, we present the route prediction algorithm. Finally, the experimental results of the effectiveness of the route predictions that is based on HMM are shown.

  15. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sanjib

    2017-08-01

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

  16. Multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for computationally expensive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, M.; Ray, J.; Ren, H.; Hou, Z.; Bao, J.

    2017-12-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to infer model parameters from observational data. The parameters are inferred as probability densities, thus capturing estimation error due to sparsity of the data, and the shortcomings of the model. Multiple communicating chains executing the MCMC method have the potential to explore the parameter space better, and conceivably accelerate the convergence to the final distribution. We present results from tests conducted with the multi-chain method to show how the acceleration occurs i.e., for loose convergence tolerances, the multiple chains do not make much of a difference. The ensemble of chains also seems to have the ability to accelerate the convergence of a few chains that might start from suboptimal starting points. Finally, we show the performance of the chains in the estimation of O(10) parameters using computationally expensive forward models such as the Community Land Model, where the sampling burden is distributed over multiple chains.

  17. Non-LTE line-blanketed model atmospheres of hot stars. 1: Hybrid complete linearization/accelerated lambda iteration method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubeny, I.; Lanz, T.

    1995-01-01

    A new munerical method for computing non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (non-LTE) model stellar atmospheres is presented. The method, called the hybird complete linearization/accelerated lambda iretation (CL/ALI) method, combines advantages of both its constituents. Its rate of convergence is virtually as high as for the standard CL method, while the computer time per iteration is almost as low as for the standard ALI method. The method is formulated as the standard complete lineariation, the only difference being that the radiation intensity at selected frequency points is not explicity linearized; instead, it is treated by means of the ALI approach. The scheme offers a wide spectrum of options, ranging from the full CL to the full ALI method. We deonstrate that the method works optimally if the majority of frequency points are treated in the ALI mode, while the radiation intensity at a few (typically two to 30) frequency points is explicity linearized. We show how this method can be applied to calculate metal line-blanketed non-LTE model atmospheres, by using the idea of 'superlevels' and 'superlines' introduced originally by Anderson (1989). We calculate several illustrative models taking into accont several tens of thosands of lines of Fe III to Fe IV and show that the hybrid CL/ALI method provides a robust method for calculating non-LTE line-blanketed model atmospheres for a wide range of stellar parameters. The results for individual stellar types will be presented in subsequent papers in this series.

  18. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for parameter estimation of a novel hybrid redundant robot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yongbo; Wu Huapeng; Handroos, Heikki

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a statistical method for the calibration of a redundantly actuated hybrid serial-parallel robot IWR (Intersector Welding Robot). The robot under study will be used to carry out welding, machining, and remote handing for the assembly of vacuum vessel of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). The robot has ten degrees of freedom (DOF), among which six DOF are contributed by the parallel mechanism and the rest are from the serial mechanism. In this paper, a kinematic error model which involves 54 unknown geometrical error parameters is developed for the proposed robot. Based on this error model, the mean values of the unknown parameters are statistically analyzed and estimated by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The computer simulation is conducted by introducing random geometric errors and measurement poses which represent the corresponding real physical behaviors. The simulation results of the marginal posterior distributions of the estimated model parameters indicate that our method is reliable and robust.

  19. Integrated Markov-neural reliability computation method: A case for multiple automated guided vehicle system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazlollahtabar, Hamed; Saidi-Mehrabad, Mohammad; Balakrishnan, Jaydeep

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an integrated Markovian and back propagation neural network approaches to compute reliability of a system. While states of failure occurrences are significant elements for accurate reliability computation, Markovian based reliability assessment method is designed. Due to drawbacks shown by Markovian model for steady state reliability computations and neural network for initial training pattern, integration being called Markov-neural is developed and evaluated. To show efficiency of the proposed approach comparative analyses are performed. Also, for managerial implication purpose an application case for multiple automated guided vehicles (AGVs) in manufacturing networks is conducted. - Highlights: • Integrated Markovian and back propagation neural network approach to compute reliability. • Markovian based reliability assessment method. • Managerial implication is shown in an application case for multiple automated guided vehicles (AGVs) in manufacturing networks

  20. Studying stellar binary systems with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna using delayed rejection Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trias, Miquel; Vecchio, Alberto; Veitch, John

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian analysis of Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data sets based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods has been shown to be a challenging problem, in part due to the complicated structure of the likelihood function consisting of several isolated local maxima that dramatically reduces the efficiency of the sampling techniques. Here we introduce a new fully Markovian algorithm, a delayed rejection Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo method, to efficiently explore these kind of structures and we demonstrate its performance on selected LISA data sets containing a known number of stellar-mass binary signals embedded in Gaussian stationary noise.

  1. Hidden Markov models for sequence analysis: extension and analysis of the basic method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughey, Richard; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1996-01-01

    -maximization training procedure is relatively straight-forward. In this paper,we review the mathematical extensions and heuristics that move the method from the theoreticalto the practical. Then, we experimentally analyze the effectiveness of model regularization,dynamic model modification, and optimization strategies......Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a highly effective means of modeling a family of unalignedsequences or a common motif within a set of unaligned sequences. The trained HMM can then beused for discrimination or multiple alignment. The basic mathematical description of an HMMand its expectation....... Finally it is demonstrated on the SH2domain how a domain can be found from unaligned sequences using a special model type. Theexperimental work was completed with the aid of the Sequence Alignment and Modeling softwaresuite....

  2. Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for the CUORE Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Eleanor; Cuore Collaboration

    2017-09-01

    The CUORE experiment is a large-scale bolometric detector seeking to observe the never-before-seen process of neutrinoless double beta decay. Predictions for CUORE's sensitivity to neutrinoless double beta decay allow for an understanding of the half-life ranges that the detector can probe, and also to evaluate the relative importance of different detector parameters. Currently, CUORE uses a Bayesian analysis based in BAT, which uses Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo, for its sensitivity studies. My work evaluates the viability and potential improvements of switching the Bayesian analysis to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, realized through the program Stan and its Morpho interface. I demonstrate that the BAT study can be successfully recreated in Stan, and perform a detailed comparison between the results and computation times of the two methods.

  3. Comparison of methods for calculating conditional expectations of sufficient statistics for continuous time Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tataru, Paula Cristina; Hobolth, Asger

    2011-01-01

    past evolutionary events (exact times and types of changes) are unaccessible and the past must be inferred from DNA sequence data observed in the present. RESULTS: We describe and implement three algorithms for computing linear combinations of expected values of the sufficient statistics, conditioned......BACKGROUND: Continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a widely used model for describing the evolution of DNA sequences on the nucleotide, amino acid or codon level. The sufficient statistics for CTMCs are the time spent in a state and the number of changes between any two states. In applications...... of the algorithms is available at www.birc.au.dk/~paula/. CONCLUSIONS: We use two different models to analyze the accuracy and eight experiments to investigate the speed of the three algorithms. We find that they have similar accuracy and that EXPM is the slowest method. Furthermore we find that UNI is usually...

  4. Comparison of event tree, fault tree and Markov methods for probabilistic safety assessment and application to accident mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, H.; Harris, M.J.; Hall, S.F.

    1992-01-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is used extensively in the nuclear industry. The main stages of PSA and the traditional event tree method are described. Focussing on hydrogen explosions, an event tree model is compared to a novel Markov model and a fault tree, and unexpected implication for accident mitigation is revealed. (author)

  5. Analysis of the trajectory surface hopping method from the Markov state model perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimov, Alexey V.; Wang, Linjun; Prezhdo, Oleg V.; Trivedi, Dhara

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the applicability of the seminal fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) method of Tully to modeling quantum transitions between electronic states that are not coupled directly, in the processes such as Auger recombination. We address the known deficiency of the method to describe such transitions by introducing an alternative definition for the surface hopping probabilities, as derived from the Markov state model perspective. We show that the resulting transition probabilities simplify to the quantum state populations derived from the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, reducing to the rapidly switching surface hopping approach of Tully and Preston. The resulting surface hopping scheme is simple and appeals to the fundamentals of quantum mechanics. The computational approach is similar to the FSSH method of Tully, yet it leads to a notably different performance. We demonstrate that the method is particularly accurate when applied to superexchange modeling. We further show improved accuracy of the method, when applied to one of the standard test problems. Finally, we adapt the derived scheme to atomistic simulation, combine it with the time-domain density functional theory, and show that it provides the Auger energy transfer timescales which are in good agreement with experiment, significantly improving upon other considered techniques. (author)

  6. A MAP-based image interpolation method via Viterbi decoding of Markov chains of interpolation functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedadi, Farhang; Shirani, Shahram

    2014-01-01

    A new method of image resolution up-conversion (image interpolation) based on maximum a posteriori sequence estimation is proposed. Instead of making a hard decision about the value of each missing pixel, we estimate the missing pixels in groups. At each missing pixel of the high resolution (HR) image, we consider an ensemble of candidate interpolation methods (interpolation functions). The interpolation functions are interpreted as states of a Markov model. In other words, the proposed method undergoes state transitions from one missing pixel position to the next. Accordingly, the interpolation problem is translated to the problem of estimating the optimal sequence of interpolation functions corresponding to the sequence of missing HR pixel positions. We derive a parameter-free probabilistic model for this to-be-estimated sequence of interpolation functions. Then, we solve the estimation problem using a trellis representation and the Viterbi algorithm. Using directional interpolation functions and sequence estimation techniques, we classify the new algorithm as an adaptive directional interpolation using soft-decision estimation techniques. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm yields images with higher or comparable peak signal-to-noise ratios compared with some benchmark interpolation methods in the literature while being efficient in terms of implementation and complexity considerations.

  7. Evaluation of alternative methods of simulating asymmetric bulk heating in fusion reactor blanket/shield components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deis, G.A.; Longhurst, G.R.; Miller, L.G.; Wadkins, R.P.; Wessol, D.E.

    1981-10-01

    As a part of Phase O, Test Program Element-II of the Office of Fusion Energy First Wall/Blanket/Shield Engineering Test Program, a study was conducted by EG and G Idaho, Inc., to identify, characterize, and recommend alternative approaches for simulating fusion bulk heating in blanket/shield components. This is the report on that effort. Since the usefulness of any simulation approach depends upon the particular experiment considered, classes of problem types (thermal-hydraulic, thermomechanical, etc.) and material types (structure, solid breeder, etc.) are developed. The evaluation of the various simulation approaches is performed for the various significant combinations of problem class and material class. The simulation approaches considered are discrete-source heating, direct resistance, electromagnetic induction, microwave heating, and nuclear heating. From the evaluations performed for each experiment type, discrete - source heating emerges as a good approach for bulk heating simulation in thermal - hydraulics experiments, and nuclear heating appears to be a good approach in experiments addressing thermomechanics and combined thermal-hydraulic/thermomechanics

  8. A Method for Speeding Up Value Iteration in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Nevin Lianwen; Lee, Stephen S.; Zhang, Weihong

    2013-01-01

    We present a technique for speeding up the convergence of value iteration for partially observable Markov decisions processes (POMDPs). The underlying idea is similar to that behind modified policy iteration for fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs). The technique can be easily incorporated into any existing POMDP value iteration algorithms. Experiments have been conducted on several test problems with one POMDP value iteration algorithm called incremental pruning. We find that th...

  9. Simulation based sequential Monte Carlo methods for discretely observed Markov processes

    OpenAIRE

    Neal, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for obtaining samples from the posterior distribution of the parameters. In particular, we introduce two key innovations, coupled simulations, which allow us to study multiple parameter values on the basis of a single sim...

  10. Survival chance in papillary thyroid cancer in Hungary: individual survival probability estimation using the Markov method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esik, Olga; Tusnady, Gabor; Daubner, Kornel; Nemeth, Gyoergy; Fuezy, Marton; Szentirmay, Zoltan

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The typically benign, but occasionally rapidly fatal clinical course of papillary thyroid cancer has raised the need for individual survival probability estimation, to tailor the treatment strategy exclusively to a given patient. Materials and methods: A retrospective study was performed on 400 papillary thyroid cancer patients with a median follow-up time of 7.1 years to establish a clinical database for uni- and multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors related to survival (Kaplan-Meier product limit method and Cox regression). For a more precise prognosis estimation, the effect of the most important clinical events were then investigated on the basis of a Markov renewal model. The basic concept of this approach is that each patient has an individual disease course which (besides the initial clinical categories) is affected by special events, e.g. internal covariates (local/regional/distant relapses). On the supposition that these events and the cause-specific death are influenced by the same biological processes, the parameters of transient survival probability characterizing the speed of the course of the disease for each clinical event and their sequence were determined. The individual survival curves for each patient were calculated by using these parameters and the independent significant clinical variables selected from multivariate studies, summation of which resulted in a mean cause-specific survival function valid for the entire group. On the basis of this Markov model, prediction of the cause-specific survival probability is possible for extrastudy cases, if it is supposed that the clinical events occur within new patients in the same manner and with the similar probability as within the study population. Results: The patient's age, a distant metastasis at presentation, the extent of the surgical intervention, the primary tumor size and extent (pT), the external irradiation dosage and the degree of TSH suppression proved to be

  11. Exact asymptotics of probabilities of large deviations for Markov chains: the Laplace method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatalov, Vadim R [M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2011-08-31

    We prove results on exact asymptotics as n{yields}{infinity} for the expectations E{sub a} exp{l_brace}-{theta}{Sigma}{sub k=0}{sup n-1}g(X{sub k}){r_brace} and probabilities P{sub a}{l_brace}(1/n {Sigma}{sub k=0}{sup n-1}g(X{sub k})=}1, is the corresponding random walk on R, g(x) is a positive continuous function satisfying certain conditions, and d>0, {theta}>0, a element of R are fixed numbers. Our results are obtained using a new method which is developed in this paper: the Laplace method for the occupation time of discrete-time Markov chains. For g(x) one can take |x|{sup p}, log (|x|{sup p}+1), p>0, |x| log (|x|+1), or e{sup {alpha}|x|}-1, 0<{alpha}<1/2, x element of R, for example. We give a detailed treatment of the case when g(x)=|x| using Bessel functions to make explicit calculations.

  12. Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Kirkwood, James R

    2015-01-01

    Review of ProbabilityShort HistoryReview of Basic Probability DefinitionsSome Common Probability DistributionsProperties of a Probability DistributionProperties of the Expected ValueExpected Value of a Random Variable with Common DistributionsGenerating FunctionsMoment Generating FunctionsExercisesDiscrete-Time, Finite-State Markov ChainsIntroductionNotationTransition MatricesDirected Graphs: Examples of Markov ChainsRandom Walk with Reflecting BoundariesGambler’s RuinEhrenfest ModelCentral Problem of Markov ChainsCondition to Ensure a Unique Equilibrium StateFinding the Equilibrium StateTransient and Recurrent StatesIndicator FunctionsPerron-Frobenius TheoremAbsorbing Markov ChainsMean First Passage TimeMean Recurrence Time and the Equilibrium StateFundamental Matrix for Regular Markov ChainsDividing a Markov Chain into Equivalence ClassesPeriodic Markov ChainsReducible Markov ChainsSummaryExercisesDiscrete-Time, Infinite-State Markov ChainsRenewal ProcessesDelayed Renewal ProcessesEquilibrium State f...

  13. Model Reduction via Principe Component Analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, R.; Chen, J.; Hoversten, M. G.; Luo, J.

    2011-12-01

    Geophysical and hydrogeological inverse problems often include a large number of unknown parameters, ranging from hundreds to millions, depending on parameterization and problems undertaking. This makes inverse estimation and uncertainty quantification very challenging, especially for those problems in two- or three-dimensional spatial domains. Model reduction technique has the potential of mitigating the curse of dimensionality by reducing total numbers of unknowns while describing the complex subsurface systems adequately. In this study, we explore the use of principal component analysis (PCA) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods for model reduction through the use of synthetic datasets. We compare the performances of three different but closely related model reduction approaches: (1) PCA methods with geometric sampling (referred to as 'Method 1'), (2) PCA methods with MCMC sampling (referred to as 'Method 2'), and (3) PCA methods with MCMC sampling and inclusion of random effects (referred to as 'Method 3'). We consider a simple convolution model with five unknown parameters as our goal is to understand and visualize the advantages and disadvantages of each method by comparing their inversion results with the corresponding analytical solutions. We generated synthetic data with noise added and invert them under two different situations: (1) the noised data and the covariance matrix for PCA analysis are consistent (referred to as the unbiased case), and (2) the noise data and the covariance matrix are inconsistent (referred to as biased case). In the unbiased case, comparison between the analytical solutions and the inversion results show that all three methods provide good estimates of the true values and Method 1 is computationally more efficient. In terms of uncertainty quantification, Method 1 performs poorly because of relatively small number of samples obtained, Method 2 performs best, and Method 3 overestimates uncertainty due to inclusion

  14. Dissemination of the National Standard of Mass from INACAL using the gauss Markov method by generalized least squares

    OpenAIRE

    Taipe, Donny

    2017-01-01

    This article sustains the transfer of the national standard of mass (KP1) of INACAL to two reference standards ‘Weight 1’, ‘Weight 2’ and also KP2 (as witnessed mass standard and with known error). The dissemination was done using the Gauss Markov method by Generalized Least Squares. The uncertainty calculation was performed using Univariate Gaussian Distribution and Multivariate Gaussian Distribution; the latter was developed with the Monte Carlo method using a programming language called 'R...

  15. Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

    2017-09-01

    Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

  16. Comparison of methods for calculating conditional expectations of sufficient statistics for continuous time Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tataru, Paula; Hobolth, Asger

    2011-12-05

    Continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a widely used model for describing the evolution of DNA sequences on the nucleotide, amino acid or codon level. The sufficient statistics for CTMCs are the time spent in a state and the number of changes between any two states. In applications past evolutionary events (exact times and types of changes) are unaccessible and the past must be inferred from DNA sequence data observed in the present. We describe and implement three algorithms for computing linear combinations of expected values of the sufficient statistics, conditioned on the end-points of the chain, and compare their performance with respect to accuracy and running time. The first algorithm is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the rate matrix (EVD), the second on uniformization (UNI), and the third on integrals of matrix exponentials (EXPM). The implementation in R of the algorithms is available at http://www.birc.au.dk/~paula/. We use two different models to analyze the accuracy and eight experiments to investigate the speed of the three algorithms. We find that they have similar accuracy and that EXPM is the slowest method. Furthermore we find that UNI is usually faster than EVD.

  17. Comparison of methods for calculating conditional expectations of sufficient statistics for continuous time Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tataru Paula

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs is a widely used model for describing the evolution of DNA sequences on the nucleotide, amino acid or codon level. The sufficient statistics for CTMCs are the time spent in a state and the number of changes between any two states. In applications past evolutionary events (exact times and types of changes are unaccessible and the past must be inferred from DNA sequence data observed in the present. Results We describe and implement three algorithms for computing linear combinations of expected values of the sufficient statistics, conditioned on the end-points of the chain, and compare their performance with respect to accuracy and running time. The first algorithm is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the rate matrix (EVD, the second on uniformization (UNI, and the third on integrals of matrix exponentials (EXPM. The implementation in R of the algorithms is available at http://www.birc.au.dk/~paula/. Conclusions We use two different models to analyze the accuracy and eight experiments to investigate the speed of the three algorithms. We find that they have similar accuracy and that EXPM is the slowest method. Furthermore we find that UNI is usually faster than EVD.

  18. On stochastic error and computational efficiency of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Jun

    2014-01-01

    In Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, thermal equilibria quantities are estimated by ensemble average over a sample set containing a large number of correlated samples. These samples are selected in accordance with the probability distribution function, known from the partition function of equilibrium state. As the stochastic error of the simulation results is significant, it is desirable to understand the variance of the estimation by ensemble average, which depends on the sample size (i.e., the total number of samples in the set) and the sampling interval (i.e., cycle number between two consecutive samples). Although large sample sizes reduce the variance, they increase the computational cost of the simulation. For a given CPU time, the sample size can be reduced greatly by increasing the sampling interval, while having the corresponding increase in variance be negligible if the original sampling interval is very small. In this work, we report a few general rules that relate the variance with the sample size and the sampling interval. These results are observed and confirmed numerically. These variance rules are derived for theMCMCmethod but are also valid for the correlated samples obtained using other Monte Carlo methods. The main contribution of this work includes the theoretical proof of these numerical observations and the set of assumptions that lead to them. © 2014 Global-Science Press.

  19. Multilevel markov chain monte carlo method for high-contrast single-phase flow problems

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.

    2014-12-19

    In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. The former provides a hierarchy of approximations of different resolution, whereas the latter gives an efficient way to estimate quantities of interest using samples on different levels. The number of basis functions in the online GMsFEM stage can be varied to determine the solution resolution and the computational cost, and to efficiently generate samples at different levels. In particular, it is cheap to generate samples on coarse grids but with low resolution, and it is expensive to generate samples on fine grids with high accuracy. By suitably choosing the number of samples at different levels, one can leverage the expensive computation in larger fine-grid spaces toward smaller coarse-grid spaces, while retaining the accuracy of the final Monte Carlo estimate. Further, we describe a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which sequentially screens the proposal with different levels of approximations and reduces the number of evaluations required on fine grids, while combining the samples at different levels to arrive at an accurate estimate. The framework seamlessly integrates the multiscale features of the GMsFEM with the multilevel feature of the MLMC methods following the work in [26], and our numerical experiments illustrate its efficiency and accuracy in comparison with standard Monte Carlo estimates. © Global Science Press Limited 2015.

  20. Markov Chains and Markov Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Ogunbayo, Segun

    2016-01-01

    Markov chain, which was named after Andrew Markov is a mathematical system that transfers a state to another state. Many real world systems contain uncertainty. This study helps us to understand the basic idea of a Markov chain and how is been useful in our daily lives. For some times there had been suspense on distinct predictions and future existences. Also in different games there had been different expectations or results involved. That is the reason why we need Markov chains to predict o...

  1. Inverse Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Aided by Adaptive Stochastic Collocation Method with Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, D.; Liao, Q.

    2016-12-01

    The Bayesian inference provides a convenient framework to solve statistical inverse problems. In this method, the parameters to be identified are treated as random variables. The prior knowledge, the system nonlinearity, and the measurement errors can be directly incorporated in the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the parameters. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a powerful tool to generate samples from the posterior PDF. However, since the MCMC usually requires thousands or even millions of forward simulations, it can be a computationally intensive endeavor, particularly when faced with large-scale flow and transport models. To address this issue, we construct a surrogate system for the model responses in the form of polynomials by the stochastic collocation method. In addition, we employ interpolation based on the nested sparse grids and takes into account the different importance of the parameters, under the condition of high random dimensions in the stochastic space. Furthermore, in case of low regularity such as discontinuous or unsmooth relation between the input parameters and the output responses, we introduce an additional transform process to improve the accuracy of the surrogate model. Once we build the surrogate system, we may evaluate the likelihood with very little computational cost. We analyzed the convergence rate of the forward solution and the surrogate posterior by Kullback-Leibler divergence, which quantifies the difference between probability distributions. The fast convergence of the forward solution implies fast convergence of the surrogate posterior to the true posterior. We also tested the proposed algorithm on water-flooding two-phase flow reservoir examples. The posterior PDF calculated from a very long chain with direct forward simulation is assumed to be accurate. The posterior PDF calculated using the surrogate model is in reasonable agreement with the reference, revealing a great improvement in terms of

  2. A Novel Generation Method for the PV Power Time Series Combining the Decomposition Technique and Markov Chain Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Shenzhi; Ai, Xiaomeng; Fang, Jiakun

    2017-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has made considerable developments in recent years. But its intermittent and volatility of its output has seriously affected the security operation of the power system. In order to better understand the PV generation and provide sufficient data support...... for analysis the impacts, a novel generation method for PV power time series combining decomposition technique and Markov chain theory is presented in this paper. It digs important factors from historical data from existing PV plants and then reproduce new data with similar patterns. In detail, the proposed...... method first decomposes the PV power time series into ideal output curve, amplitude parameter series and random fluctuating component three parts. Then generating daily ideal output curve by the extraction of typical daily data, amplitude parameter series based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC...

  3. Current Observational Constraints to Holographic Dark Energy Model with New Infrared cut-off via Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yuting; Xu, Lixin

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, the holographic dark energy model with new infrared (IR) cut-off for both the flat case and the non-flat case are confronted with the combined constraints of current cosmological observations: type Ia Supernovae, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, current Cosmic Microwave Background, and the observational hubble data. By utilizing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, we obtain the best fit values of the parameters with $1\\sigma, 2\\sigma$ errors in the flat model: $\\Omega_{b}h...

  4. The Impact of Short-Sale Constraints on Asset Allocation Strategies via the Backward Markov Chain Approximation Method

    OpenAIRE

    Carl Chiarella; Chih-Ying Hsiao

    2005-01-01

    This paper considers an asset allocation strategy over a finite period under investment uncertainty and short-sale constraints as a continuous time stochastic control problem. Investment uncertainty is characterised by a stochastic interest rate and inflation risk. If there are no short-sale constraints, the optimal asset allocation strategy can be solved analytically. We consider several kinds of short-sale constraints and employ the backward Markov chain approximation method to explore the ...

  5. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  6. A hybrid degradation tendency measurement method for mechanical equipment based on moving window and Grey–Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Wei; Zhou, Jianzhong; Zheng, Yang; Liu, Han

    2017-01-01

    Accurate degradation tendency measurement is vital for the secure operation of mechanical equipment. However, the existing techniques and methodologies for degradation measurement still face challenges, such as lack of appropriate degradation indicator, insufficient accuracy, and poor capability to track the data fluctuation. To solve these problems, a hybrid degradation tendency measurement method for mechanical equipment based on a moving window and Grey–Markov model is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, a 1D normalized degradation index based on multi-feature fusion is designed to assess the extent of degradation. Subsequently, the moving window algorithm is integrated with the Grey–Markov model for the dynamic update of the model. Two key parameters, namely the step size and the number of states, contribute to the adaptive modeling and multi-step prediction. Finally, three types of combination prediction models are established to measure the degradation trend of equipment. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated with a case study on the health monitoring of turbine engines. Experimental results show that the proposed method has better performance, in terms of both measuring accuracy and data fluctuation tracing, in comparison with other conventional methods. (paper)

  7. A hybrid degradation tendency measurement method for mechanical equipment based on moving window and Grey-Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Zhou, Jianzhong; Zheng, Yang; Liu, Han

    2017-11-01

    Accurate degradation tendency measurement is vital for the secure operation of mechanical equipment. However, the existing techniques and methodologies for degradation measurement still face challenges, such as lack of appropriate degradation indicator, insufficient accuracy, and poor capability to track the data fluctuation. To solve these problems, a hybrid degradation tendency measurement method for mechanical equipment based on a moving window and Grey-Markov model is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, a 1D normalized degradation index based on multi-feature fusion is designed to assess the extent of degradation. Subsequently, the moving window algorithm is integrated with the Grey-Markov model for the dynamic update of the model. Two key parameters, namely the step size and the number of states, contribute to the adaptive modeling and multi-step prediction. Finally, three types of combination prediction models are established to measure the degradation trend of equipment. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated with a case study on the health monitoring of turbine engines. Experimental results show that the proposed method has better performance, in terms of both measuring accuracy and data fluctuation tracing, in comparison with other conventional methods.

  8. The Markov chain method for solving dead time problems in the space dependent model of reactor noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degweker, S.B.

    1997-01-01

    The discrete time Markov chain approach for deriving the statistics of time-correlated pulses, in the presence of a non-extending dead time, is extended to include the effect of space energy distribution of the neutron field. Equations for the singlet and doublet densities of follower neutrons are derived by neglecting correlations beyond the second order. These equations are solved by the modal method. It is shown that in the unimodal approximation, the equations reduce to the point model equations with suitably defined parameters. (author)

  9. Discrete probability models and methods probability on graphs and trees, Markov chains and random fields, entropy and coding

    CERN Document Server

    Brémaud, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    The emphasis in this book is placed on general models (Markov chains, random fields, random graphs), universal methods (the probabilistic method, the coupling method, the Stein-Chen method, martingale methods, the method of types) and versatile tools (Chernoff's bound, Hoeffding's inequality, Holley's inequality) whose domain of application extends far beyond the present text. Although the examples treated in the book relate to the possible applications, in the communication and computing sciences, in operations research and in physics, this book is in the first instance concerned with theory. The level of the book is that of a beginning graduate course. It is self-contained, the prerequisites consisting merely of basic calculus (series) and basic linear algebra (matrices). The reader is not assumed to be trained in probability since the first chapters give in considerable detail the background necessary to understand the rest of the book. .

  10. Design and analysis of ITER shield blanket

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohmori, Junji; Hatano, Toshihisa; Ezato, Kouichiro [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Naka, Ibaraki (Japan). Naka Fusion Research Establishment] [and others

    1998-12-01

    This report includes electromagnetic analyses for ITER shielding blanket modules, fabrication methods for the blanket modules and the back plate, the design and the fabrication methods for port limiter have been investigated. Studies on the runaway electron impact for Be armor have been also performed. (J.P.N.)

  11. a Probability Model for Drought Prediction Using Fusion of Markov Chain and SAX Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouybari-Moghaddam, Y.; Saradjian, M. R.; Forati, A. M.

    2017-09-01

    Drought is one of the most powerful natural disasters which are affected on different aspects of the environment. Most of the time this phenomenon is immense in the arid and semi-arid area. Monitoring and prediction the severity of the drought can be useful in the management of the natural disaster caused by drought. Many indices were used in predicting droughts such as SPI, VCI, and TVX. In this paper, based on three data sets (rainfall, NDVI, and land surface temperature) which are acquired from MODIS satellite imagery, time series of SPI, VCI, and TVX in time limited between winters 2000 to summer 2015 for the east region of Isfahan province were created. Using these indices and fusion of symbolic aggregation approximation and hidden Markov chain drought was predicted for fall 2015. For this purpose, at first, each time series was transformed into the set of quality data based on the state of drought (5 group) by using SAX algorithm then the probability matrix for the future state was created by using Markov hidden chain. The fall drought severity was predicted by fusion the probability matrix and state of drought severity in summer 2015. The prediction based on the likelihood for each state of drought includes severe drought, middle drought, normal drought, severe wet and middle wet. The analysis and experimental result from proposed algorithm show that the product of this algorithm is acceptable and the proposed algorithm is appropriate and efficient for predicting drought using remote sensor data.

  12. Breeding blanket for Demo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proust, E.; Giancarli, L.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the main design features, their rationale, and the main critical issues for the development, of the four DEMO-relevant blanket concepts presently investigated within the framework of the European Test-Blanket Development Programme

  13. ITER convertible blanket evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, C.P.C.; Cheng, E.

    1995-01-01

    Proposed International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) convertible blankets were reviewed. Key design difficulties were identified. A new particle filter concept is introduced and key performance parameters estimated. Results show that this particle filter concept can satisfy all of the convertible blanket design requirements except the generic issue of Be blanket lifetime. If the convertible blanket is an acceptable approach for ITER operation, this particle filter option should be a strong candidate

  14. Computing the Stackelberg/Nash equilibria using the extraproximal method: Convergence analysis and implementation details for Markov chains games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trejo Kristal K.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the extraproximal method for computing the Stackelberg/Nash equilibria in a class of ergodic controlled finite Markov chains games. We exemplify the original game formulation in terms of coupled nonlinear programming problems implementing the Lagrange principle. In addition, Tikhonov’s regularization method is employed to ensure the convergence of the cost-functions to a Stackelberg/Nash equilibrium point. Then, we transform the problem into a system of equations in the proximal format. We present a two-step iterated procedure for solving the extraproximal method: (a the first step (the extra-proximal step consists of a “prediction” which calculates the preliminary position approximation to the equilibrium point, and (b the second step is designed to find a “basic adjustment” of the previous prediction. The procedure is called the “extraproximal method” because of the use of an extrapolation. Each equation in this system is an optimization problem for which the necessary and efficient condition for a minimum is solved using a quadratic programming method. This solution approach provides a drastically quicker rate of convergence to the equilibrium point. We present the analysis of the convergence as well the rate of convergence of the method, which is one of the main results of this paper. Additionally, the extraproximal method is developed in terms of Markov chains for Stackelberg games. Our goal is to analyze completely a three-player Stackelberg game consisting of a leader and two followers. We provide all the details needed to implement the extraproximal method in an efficient and numerically stable way. For instance, a numerical technique is presented for computing the first step parameter (λ of the extraproximal method. The usefulness of the approach is successfully demonstrated by a numerical example related to a pricing oligopoly model for airlines companies.

  15. The blanket interface to TSTA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clemmer, R.G.; Finn, P.A.; Grimm, T.L.; Sze, D.K.; Anderson, J.L.; Bartlit, J.R.; Naruse, Y.; Yoshida, H.

    1988-01-01

    The requirements of tritium technology are centered in three main areas, (1) fuel processing, (2) breeder tritium extraction, and (3) tritium containment. The Tritium Systems Test Assembly (TSTA) now in operation at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is dedicated to developing and demonstrating the tritium technology for fuel processing and containment. TSTA is the only fusion fuel processing facility that can operate in a continuous closed-loop mode. The tritium throughput of TSTA is 1000 g/d. However, TSTA does not have a blanket interface system. The authors have initiated a study to define a Breeder Blanket Interface (BBIO) for TSTA. The first step of the work is to define the condition of the gaseous tritium stream from the blanket tritium recovery system. This report summarizes this part of the work for one particular blanket concept, i.e., a self-cooled lithium blanket. The total gas throughput, the hydrogen to tritium ratio, the corrosive chemicals, and the radionuclides are defined. Various methods of tritium recovery from liquid lithium were assessed: yttrium gettering, permeation windows, and molten salt extraction. The authors' evaluation concluded that the best method was molten salt extraction

  16. Application of clustering methods: Regularized Markov clustering (R-MCL) for analyzing dengue virus similarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lestari, D.; Raharjo, D.; Bustamam, A.; Abdillah, B.; Widhianto, W.

    2017-07-01

    Dengue virus consists of 10 different constituent proteins and are classified into 4 major serotypes (DEN 1 - DEN 4). This study was designed to perform clustering against 30 protein sequences of dengue virus taken from Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (VIPR) using Regularized Markov Clustering (R-MCL) algorithm and then we analyze the result. By using Python program 3.4, R-MCL algorithm produces 8 clusters with more than one centroid in several clusters. The number of centroid shows the density level of interaction. Protein interactions that are connected in a tissue, form a complex protein that serves as a specific biological process unit. The analysis of result shows the R-MCL clustering produces clusters of dengue virus family based on the similarity role of their constituent protein, regardless of serotypes.

  17. Materials for breeding blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattas, R.F.; Billone, M.C.

    1995-09-01

    There are several candidate concepts for tritium breeding blankets that make use of a number of special materials. These materials can be classified as Primary Blanket Materials, which have the greatest influence in determining the overall design and performance, and Secondary Blanket Materials, which have key functions in the operation of the blanket but are less important in establishing the overall design and performance. The issues associated with the blanket materials are specified and several examples of materials performance are given. Critical data needs are identified

  18. Materials for breeding blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattas, R.F.; Billone, M.C.

    1996-01-01

    There are several candidate concepts for tritium breeding blankets that make use of a number of special materials. These materials can be classified as primary blanket materials, which have the greatest influence in determining the overall design and performance, and secondary blanket materials, which have key functions in the operation of the blanket but are less important in establishing the overall design and performance. The issues associated with the blanket materials are specified and several examples of materials performance are given. Critical data needs are identified. (orig.)

  19. Processing and waste disposal needs for fusion breeder blankets system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, P.A.; Vogler, S.

    1988-01-01

    We evaluated the waste disposal and recycling requirements for two types of fusion breeder blanket (solid and liquid). The goal was to determine if breeder blanket waste can be disposed of in shallow land burial, the least restrictive method under U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations. Described in this paper are the radionuclides expected in fusion blanket materials, plans for reprocessing and disposal of blanket components, and estimates for the operating costs involved in waste disposal. (orig.)

  20. LMFBR blanket physics project progress report No. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driscoll, M.J.; Lanning, D.D.; Kaplan, I.; Supple, A.T.

    1973-01-01

    During the period covered by the report, July 1, 1972, through June 30, 1973, work was devoted to completion of experimental measurements and data analysis on Blanket Mockup No. 3, a graphite-reflected blanket, and to initiation of experimental work on Blanket Mockup No. 4, a steel-reflected assembly designed to mock up a demonstration plant blanket. Work was also carried out on the analysis of a number of advanced blanket concepts, including the use of high-albedo reflectors, the use of thorium in place of uranium in the blanket region, and the ''parfait'' or completely internal blanket concept. Finally, methods development work was initiated to develop the capability for making gamma heating measurements in the blanket mockups. (U.S.)

  1. NET test blanket design and remote maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holloway, C.; Hubert, P.

    1991-01-01

    The NET machine has three horizontal ports reserved for testing tritium breeding blanket designs during the physics phase and possibly five during the technology phase. The design of the ports and test blankets are modular to accept a range of blanket options, provide radiation shielding and allow routine replacement. Radiation levels during replacement or maintenance require that all operations must be carried out remotely. The paper describes the problems overcome in providing a port design which includes attachment to the vacuum vessel with double vacuum seals, an integrated cooled first wall and support guides for the test blanket module. The method selected to remotely replace the test module whilst controlling the spread of contamination is also adressed. The paper concludes that the provisions of a test blanket facility based on the NET machine design is feasible. (orig.)

  2. An Auxiliary Variable Method for Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms in High Dimension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosra Marnissi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we are interested in Bayesian inverse problems where either the data fidelity term or the prior distribution is Gaussian or driven from a hierarchical Gaussian model. Generally, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithms allow us to generate sets of samples that are employed to infer some relevant parameters of the underlying distributions. However, when the parameter space is high-dimensional, the performance of stochastic sampling algorithms is very sensitive to existing dependencies between parameters. In particular, this problem arises when one aims to sample from a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution whose covariance matrix does not present a simple structure. Another challenge is the design of Metropolis–Hastings proposals that make use of information about the local geometry of the target density in order to speed up the convergence and improve mixing properties in the parameter space, while not being too computationally expensive. These two contexts are mainly related to the presence of two heterogeneous sources of dependencies stemming either from the prior or the likelihood in the sense that the related covariance matrices cannot be diagonalized in the same basis. In this work, we address these two issues. Our contribution consists of adding auxiliary variables to the model in order to dissociate the two sources of dependencies. In the new augmented space, only one source of correlation remains directly related to the target parameters, the other sources of correlations being captured by the auxiliary variables. Experiments are conducted on two practical image restoration problems—namely the recovery of multichannel blurred images embedded in Gaussian noise and the recovery of signal corrupted by a mixed Gaussian noise. Experimental results indicate that adding the proposed auxiliary variables makes the sampling problem simpler since the new conditional distribution no longer contains highly heterogeneous

  3. A blanket design, apparatus, and fabrication techniques for the mass production of multilayer insulation blankets for the Superconducting Super Collider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonczy, J.D.; Boroski, W.N.; Niemann, R.C.; Otavka, J.G.; Ruschman, M.K.; Schoo, C.J.

    1989-09-01

    The multilayer insulation (MLI) system for the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) consists of full cryostat length assemblies of aluminized polyester film fabricated in the form of blankets and installed as blankets to the 4.5K cold mass and the 20K and 80K thermal radiation shields. Approximately 40,000 MLI blankets will be required in the 10,000 cryogenic devices comprising the SSC accelerator. Each blanket is nearly 17 meters long and 1.8 meters wide. This paper reports the blanket design, an apparatus, and the fabrication method used to mass produce pre-fabricated MLI blankets. Incorporated in the blanket design are techniques which automate quality control during installation of the MLI blankets in the SSC cryostat. The apparatus and blanket fabrication method insure consistency in the mass produced blankets by providing positive control of the dimensional parameters which contribute to the thermal performance of the MLI blanket. By virtue of the fabrication process, the MLI blankets have inherent features of dimensional stability three-dimensional uniformity, controlled layer density, layer-to-layer registration, interlayer cleanliness, and interlayer material to accommodate thermal contraction differences. 11 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  4. Mirror reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J.D.; Barmore, W.L.; Bender, D.J.; Doggett, J.N.; Galloway, T.R.

    1976-01-01

    The general requirements of a breeding blanket for a mirror reactor are described. The following areas are discussed: (1) facility layout and blanket maintenance, (2) heat transfer and thermal conversion system, (3) materials, (4) tritium containment and removal, and (5) nuclear performance

  5. Convertible shielding to ceramic breeding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuya, Kazuyuki; Kurasawa, Toshimasa; Sato, Satoshi; Nakahira, Masataka; Togami, Ikuhide; Hashimoto, Toshiyuki; Takatsu, Hideyuki; Kuroda, Toshimasa.

    1995-05-01

    Four concepts have been studied for the ITER convertible blanket: 1)Layered concept 2)BIT(Breeder-Inside-Tube)concept 3)BOT(Breeder-Out of-Tube)concept 4)BOT/mixed concept. All concepts use ceramic breeder and beryllium neutron multiplier, both in the shape of small spherical pebbles, 316SS structure, and H 2 O coolant (inlet/outlet temperatures : 100/150degC, pressure : 2 MPa). During the BPP, only beryllium pebbles (the primary pebble in case of BOT/mixed concept) are filled in the blanket for shielding purpose. Then, before the EPP operation, breeder pebbles will be additionally inserted into the blanket. Among possible conversion methods, wet method by liquid flow seems expecting for high and homogeneous pebble packing. Preliminary 1-D neutronics calculation shows that the BOT/mixed concept has the highest breeding and shielding performance. However, final selection should be done by R and D's and more detail investigation on blanket characteristics and fabricability. Required R and D's are also listed. With these efforts, the convertible blanket can be developed. However, the following should be noted. Though many of above R and D's are also necessary even for non-convertible blanket, R and D's on convertibility will be one of the most difficult parts and need significant efforts. Besides the installation of convertible blanket with required structures and lines for conversion will make the ITER basic machine more complicated. (author)

  6. APT target-blanket fabrication development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisher, D.L.

    1997-06-13

    Concepts for producing tritium in an accelerator were translated into hardware for engineering studies of tritium generation, heat transfer, and effects of proton-neutron flux on materials. Small-scale target- blanket assemblies were fabricated and material samples prepared for these performance tests. Blanket assemblies utilize composite aluminum-lead modules, the two primary materials of the blanket. Several approaches are being investigated to produce large-scale assemblies, developing fabrication and assembly methods for their commercial manufacture. Small-scale target-blanket assemblies, designed and fabricated at the Savannah River Site, were place in Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) for irradiation. They were subjected to neutron flux for nine months during 1996-97. Coincident with this test was the development of production methods for large- scale modules. Increasing module size presented challenges that required new methods to be developed for fabrication and assembly. After development, these methods were demonstrated by fabricating and assembling two production-scale modules.

  7. Fusion fuel blanket technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hastings, I.J.; Gierszewski, P.

    1987-05-01

    The fusion blanket surrounds the burning hydrogen core of a fusion reactor. It is in this blanket that most of the energy released by the nuclear fusion of deuterium-tritium is converted into useful product, and where tritium fuel is produced to enable further operation of the reactor. As fusion research turns from present short-pulse physics experiments to long-burn engineering tests in the 1990's, energy removal and tritium production capabilities become important. This technology will involve new materials, conditions and processes with applications both to fusion and beyond. In this paper, we introduce features of proposed blanket designs and update and status of international research. In focusing on the Canadian blanket technology program, we discuss the aqueous lithium salt blanket concept, and the in-reactor tritium recovery test program

  8. Blanket testing in NET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chazalon, M.; Daenner, W.; Libin, B.

    1989-01-01

    The testing stages in NET for the performance assessment of the various breeding blanket concepts developed at the present time in Europe for DEMO (LiPb and ceramic blankets) and the requirements upon NET to perform these tests are reviewed. Typical locations available in NET for blanket testing are the central outboard segments and the horizontal ports of in-vessel sectors. These test positions will be connectable with external test loops. The number of test loops (helium, water, liquid metal) will be such that each major class of blankets can be tested in NET. The test positions, the boundary conditions and the external test loops are identified and the requirements for test blankets are summarized (author). 6

  9. A method for measuring the corrosion rate of materials in spallation neutron source target/blanket cooling loops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lillard, R.S.; Butt, D.P.

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes the ongoing evaluation of the susceptibility of materials in accelerator target/blanket cooling loops to corrosion. To simulate the exposure environment in a target/blanket cooling loop, samples were irradiated by an 800 MeV proton beam at the A6 Target Station of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). To accomplish this, a cooling water loop capable of exposing corrosion samples to an 800 MeV proton beam at currents upwards of 1 mA was constructed. This loop allowed control and evaluation hydrogen water chemistry, water conductivity, and solution pH. Specially designed ceramic sealed samples were used to measure the real-time corrosion rates of materials placed directly in the proton beam using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). EIS was also used to measure real-time corrosion rates of samples that were out of the proton beam and downstream from the in-beam samples. These out-of-beam probes primarily examined the effects of long lived water radiolysis products from proton irradiation on corrosion rates. An overview of the LANSCE corrosion loop, the corrosion probes, and data from an in-beam alloy 718 probe are presented

  10. Markov processes and controlled Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Filar, Jerzy; Chen, Anyue

    2002-01-01

    The general theory of stochastic processes and the more specialized theory of Markov processes evolved enormously in the second half of the last century. In parallel, the theory of controlled Markov chains (or Markov decision processes) was being pioneered by control engineers and operations researchers. Researchers in Markov processes and controlled Markov chains have been, for a long time, aware of the synergies between these two subject areas. However, this may be the first volume dedicated to highlighting these synergies and, almost certainly, it is the first volume that emphasizes the contributions of the vibrant and growing Chinese school of probability. The chapters that appear in this book reflect both the maturity and the vitality of modern day Markov processes and controlled Markov chains. They also will provide an opportunity to trace the connections that have emerged between the work done by members of the Chinese school of probability and the work done by the European, US, Central and South Ameri...

  11. ITER breeding blanket module design and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuroda, Toshimasa; Enoeda, Mikio; Kikuchi, Shigeto [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Naka, Ibaraki (Japan). Naka Fusion Research Establishment] [and others

    1998-11-01

    The ITER breeding blanket employs a ceramic breeder and Be neutron multiplier both in small spherical pebble form. Radial-poloidal cooling panels are arranged in the blanket box to remove the nuclear heating in these materials and to reinforce the blanket structure. At the first wall, Be armor is bonded onto the stainless steel (SS) structure to provide a low Z plasma-compatible surface and to protect the first wall/blanket structure from the direct contact with the plasma during off-normal events. Thermo-mechanical analyses and investigation of fabrication procedure have been performed for this breeding blanket. To evaluate thermo-mechanical behavior of the pebble beds including the dependency of the effective thermal conductivity on stress, analysis methods have been preliminary established by the use of special calculation option of ABAQUS code, which are briefly summarized in this report. The structural response of the breeding blanket module under internal pressure of 4 MPa (in case of in-blanket LOCA) resulted in rather high stress in the blanket side (toroidal end) wall, thus addition of a stiffening rib or increase of the wall thickness will be needed. Two-dimensional elasto-plastic analyses have been performed for the Be/SS bonded interface at the first wall taking a fabrication process based on HIP bonding and thermal cycle due to pulsed plasma operation into account. The stress-strain hysteresis during these process and operation was clarified, and a procedure to assess and/or confirm the bonding integrity was also proposed. Fabrication sequence of the breeding blanket module was preliminarily developed based on the procedure to fabricate part by part and to assemble them one by one. (author)

  12. Limitations on blanket performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malang, S.

    1999-01-01

    The limitations on the performance of breeding blankets in a fusion power plant are evaluated. The breeding blankets will be key components of a plant and their limitations with regard to power density, thermal efficiency and lifetime could determine to a large degree the attractiveness of a power plant. The performance of two rather well known blanket concepts under development in the frame of the European Blanket Programme is assessed and their limitations are compared with more advanced (and more speculative) concepts. An important issue is the question of which material (structure, breeder, multiplier, coatings) will limit the performance and what improvement would be possible with a 'better' structural material. This evaluation is based on the premise that the performance of the power plant will be limited by the blankets (including first wall) and not by other components, e.g. divertors, or the plasma itself. However, the justness of this premise remains to be seen. It is shown that the different blanket concepts cover a large range of allowable power densities and achievable thermal efficiencies, and it is concluded that there is a high incentive to go for better performance in spite of possibly higher blanket cost. However, such high performance blankets are usually based on materials and technologies not yet developed and there is a rather high risk that the development could fail. Therefore, it is explained that a part of the development effort should be devoted to concepts where the materials and technologies are more or less in hand in order to ensure that blankets for a DEMO reactor can be developed and tested in a given time frame. (orig.)

  13. Reliability evaluation of non-reparable three-state systems using Markov model and its comparison with the UGF and the recursive methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourkarim Guilani, Pedram; Sharifi, Mani; Niaki, S.T.A.; Zaretalab, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In multi-state systems (MSS) reliability problems, it is assumed that the components of each subsystem have different performance rates with certain probabilities. This leads into extensive computational efforts involved in using the commonly employed universal generation function (UGF) and the recursive algorithm to obtain reliability of systems consisting of a large number of components. This research deals with evaluating non-repairable three-state systems reliability and proposes a novel method based on a Markov process for which an appropriate state definition is provided. It is shown that solving the derived differential equations significantly reduces the computational time compared to the UGF and the recursive algorithm. - Highlights: • Reliability evaluation of a non-repairable three-state systems is aimed. • A novel method based on a Markov process is proposed. • An appropriate state definition is provided. • Computational time is significantly less compared to the ones in the UGF and the recursive methods

  14. Multilevel markov chain monte carlo method for high-contrast single-phase flow problems

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.; Jin, Bangti; Michael, Presho; Tan, Xiaosi

    2014-01-01

    Carlo (MLMC) methods. The former provides a hierarchy of approximations of different resolution, whereas the latter gives an efficient way to estimate quantities of interest using samples on different levels. The number of basis functions in the online

  15. ITER shielding blanket

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strebkov, Yu [ENTEK, Moscow (Russian Federation); Avsjannikov, A [ENTEK, Moscow (Russian Federation); Baryshev, M [NIAT, Moscow (Russian Federation); Blinov, Yu [ENTEK, Moscow (Russian Federation); Shatalov, G [KIAE, Moscow (Russian Federation); Vasiliev, N [KIAE, Moscow (Russian Federation); Vinnikov, A [ENTEK, Moscow (Russian Federation); Chernjagin, A [DYNAMICA, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-03-01

    A reference non-breeding blanket is under development now for the ITER Basic Performance Phase for the purpose of high reliability during the first stage of ITER operation. More severe operation modes are expected in this stage with first wall (FW) local heat loads up to 100-300Wcm{sup -2}. Integration of a blanket design with protective and start limiters requires new solutions to achieve high reliability, and possible use of beryllium as a protective material leads to technologies. The rigid shielding blanket concept was developed in Russia to satisfy the above-mentioned requirements. The concept is based on a copper alloy FW, austenitic stainless steel blanket structure, water cooling. Beryllium protection is integrated in the FW design. Fabrication technology and assembly procedure are described in parallel with the equipment used. (orig.).

  16. Tritium breeding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.; Billone, M.; Gohar, Y.; Baker, C.; Mori, S.; Kuroda, T.; Maki, K.; Takatsu, H.; Yoshida, H.; Raffray, A.; Sviatoslavsky, I.; Simbolotti, G.; Shatalov, G.

    1991-01-01

    The terms of reference for ITER provide for incorporation of a tritium breeding blanket with a breeding ratio as close to unity as practical. A breeding blanket is required to assure an adequate supply of tritium to meet the program objectives. Based on specified design criteria, a ceramic breeder concept with water coolant and an austenitic steel structure has been selected as the first option and lithium-lead blanket concept has been chosen as an alternate option. The first wall, blanket, and shield are integrated into a single unit with separate cooling systems. The design makes extensive use of beryllium to enhance the tritium breeding ratio. The design goals with a tritium breeding ratio of 0.8--0.9 have been achieved and the R ampersand D requirements to qualify the design have been identified. 4 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Dual coolant blanket concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malang, S.; Schleisiek, K.

    1994-11-01

    A self-cooled liquid metal breeder blanket with helium-cooled first wall ('Dual Coolant Blanket Concept') for a fusion DEMO reactor is described. This is one of the four blanket concepts under development in the frame of the European fusion technology program with the aim to select in 1995 the two most promising ones for further development. Described are the design of the blankets including the ancillary loop system and the results of the theoretical and experimental work in the fields of neutronics, magnetohydrodynamics, thermohydraulics, mechanical stresses, compatibility and purification of lead-lithium, tritium control, safety, reliability, and electrically insulating coatings. The remaining open questions and the required R and D programme are identified. (orig.) [de

  18. Blankets for thermonuclear device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maki, Koichi; Fukumoto, Hideshi.

    1986-01-01

    Purpose: To produce tritium more than consumed, through thermonuclear reaction. Constitution: The energy spectrum of neutron generated by neutron multiplying reaction in a neutron multiplying blanket and moderated neutrons has a large ratio in a low energy section. In the low-energy absorption region of stainless steel which is a material of cooling pipes constituting a neutron multiplying blanket cooling channel, the neutrons are absorbed, lessening the neutron multiplying effect. To prevent this, the neutron multiplying blanket cooling channel is covered with tritium breeding blankets, thereby enabling the production of a substantially great amount of tritium more than the amount of tritium to be consumed by the thermonuclear reaction by preventing neutron absorption by the component materials of the cooling channel, improving the tritium breeding ratio by 20 to 25 %, and increasing the efficiency of use of neutrons for tritium generation. (Horiuchi, T.)

  19. Approximate quantum Markov chains

    CERN Document Server

    Sutter, David

    2018-01-01

    This book is an introduction to quantum Markov chains and explains how this concept is connected to the question of how well a lost quantum mechanical system can be recovered from a correlated subsystem. To achieve this goal, we strengthen the data-processing inequality such that it reveals a statement about the reconstruction of lost information. The main difficulty in order to understand the behavior of quantum Markov chains arises from the fact that quantum mechanical operators do not commute in general. As a result we start by explaining two techniques of how to deal with non-commuting matrices: the spectral pinching method and complex interpolation theory. Once the reader is familiar with these techniques a novel inequality is presented that extends the celebrated Golden-Thompson inequality to arbitrarily many matrices. This inequality is the key ingredient in understanding approximate quantum Markov chains and it answers a question from matrix analysis that was open since 1973, i.e., if Lieb's triple ma...

  20. ITER blanket designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gohar, Y.; Parker, R.; Rebut, P.H.

    1995-01-01

    The ITER first wall, blanket, and shield system is being designed to handle 1.5±0.3 GW of fusion power and 3 MWa m -2 average neutron fluence. In the basic performance phase of ITER operation, the shielding blanket uses austenitic steel structural material and water coolant. The first wall is made of bimetallic structure, austenitic steel and copper alloy, coated with beryllium and it is protected by beryllium bumper limiters. The choice of copper first wall is dictated by the surface heat flux values anticipated during ITER operation. The water coolant is used at low pressure and low temperature. A breeding blanket has been designed to satisfy the technical objectives of the Enhanced Performance Phase of ITER operation for the Test Program. The breeding blanket design is geometrically similar to the shielding blanket design except it is a self-cooled liquid lithium system with vanadium structural material. Self-healing electrical insulator (aluminum nitride) is used to reduce the MHD pressure drop in the system. Reactor relevancy, low tritium inventory, low activation material, low decay heat, and a tritium self-sufficiency goal are the main features of the breeding blanket design. (orig.)

  1. Basic problems and solution methods for two-dimensional continuous 3 × 3 order hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Guo-gang; Tang, Gui-jin; Gan, Zong-liang; Cui, Zi-guan; Zhu, Xiu-chang

    2016-01-01

    A novel model referred to as two-dimensional continuous 3 × 3 order hidden Markov model is put forward to avoid the disadvantages of the classical hypothesis of two-dimensional continuous hidden Markov model. This paper presents three equivalent definitions of the model, in which the state transition probability relies on not only immediate horizontal and vertical states but also immediate diagonal state, and in which the probability density of the observation relies on not only current state but also immediate horizontal and vertical states. The paper focuses on the three basic problems of the model, namely probability density calculation, parameters estimation and path backtracking. Some algorithms solving the questions are theoretically derived, by exploiting the idea that the sequences of states on rows or columns of the model can be viewed as states of a one-dimensional continuous 1 × 2 order hidden Markov model. Simulation results further demonstrate the performance of the algorithms. Because there are more statistical characteristics in the structure of the proposed new model, it can more accurately describe some practical problems, as compared to two-dimensional continuous hidden Markov model.

  2. Phase-coexistence simulations of fluid mixtures by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method using single-particle models

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Jun

    2013-09-01

    We present a single-particle Lennard-Jones (L-J) model for CO2 and N2. Simplified L-J models for other small polyatomic molecules can be obtained following the methodology described herein. The phase-coexistence diagrams of single-component systems computed using the proposed single-particle models for CO2 and N2 agree well with experimental data over a wide range of temperatures. These diagrams are computed using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method based on the Gibbs-NVT ensemble. This good agreement validates the proposed simplified models. That is, with properly selected parameters, the single-particle models have similar accuracy in predicting gas-phase properties as more complex, state-of-the-art molecular models. To further test these single-particle models, three binary mixtures of CH4, CO2 and N2 are studied using a Gibbs-NPT ensemble. These results are compared against experimental data over a wide range of pressures. The single-particle model has similar accuracy in the gas phase as traditional models although its deviation in the liquid phase is greater. Since the single-particle model reduces the particle number and avoids the time-consuming Ewald summation used to evaluate Coulomb interactions, the proposed model improves the computational efficiency significantly, particularly in the case of high liquid density where the acceptance rate of the particle-swap trial move increases. We compare, at constant temperature and pressure, the Gibbs-NPT and Gibbs-NVT ensembles to analyze their performance differences and results consistency. As theoretically predicted, the agreement between the simulations implies that Gibbs-NVT can be used to validate Gibbs-NPT predictions when experimental data is not available. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  3. A Monte-Carlo method which is not based on Markov chain algorithm, used to study electrostatic screening of ion potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šantić, Branko; Gracin, Davor

    2017-12-01

    A new simple Monte Carlo method is introduced for the study of electrostatic screening by surrounding ions. The proposed method is not based on the generally used Markov chain method for sample generation. Each sample is pristine and there is no correlation with other samples. As the main novelty, the pairs of ions are gradually added to a sample provided that the energy of each ion is within the boundaries determined by the temperature and the size of ions. The proposed method provides reliable results, as demonstrated by the screening of ion in plasma and in water.

  4. Processing and waste disposal representative for fusion breeder blanket systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, P.A.; Vogler, S.

    1987-01-01

    This study is an evaluation of the waste handling concepts applicable to fusion breeder systems. Its goal is to determine if breeder blanket waste can be disposed of in shallow land burial, the least restrictive method under US Nuclear Regulatory regulations. The radionuclides expected in the materials used in fusion reactor blankets are described, as are plans for reprocessing and disposal of the components of different breeder blankets. An estimate of the operating costs involved in waste disposal is made

  5. Behavioral Analysis of Visitors to a Medical Institution’s Website Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Yuji

    2016-01-01

    Background Consistent with the “attention, interest, desire, memory, action” (AIDMA) model of consumer behavior, patients collect information about available medical institutions using the Internet to select information for their particular needs. Studies of consumer behavior may be found in areas other than medical institution websites. Such research uses Web access logs for visitor search behavior. At this time, research applying the patient searching behavior model to medical institution website visitors is lacking. Objective We have developed a hospital website search behavior model using a Bayesian approach to clarify the behavior of medical institution website visitors and determine the probability of their visits, classified by search keyword. Methods We used the website data access log of a clinic of internal medicine and gastroenterology in the Sapporo suburbs, collecting data from January 1 through June 31, 2011. The contents of the 6 website pages included the following: home, news, content introduction for medical examinations, mammography screening, holiday person-on-duty information, and other. The search keywords we identified as best expressing website visitor needs were listed as the top 4 headings from the access log: clinic name, clinic name + regional name, clinic name + medical examination, and mammography screening. Using the search keywords as the explaining variable, we built a binomial probit model that allows inspection of the contents of each purpose variable. Using this model, we determined a beta value and generated a posterior distribution. We performed the simulation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods with a noninformation prior distribution for this model and determined the visit probability classified by keyword for each category. Results In the case of the keyword “clinic name,” the visit probability to the website, repeated visit to the website, and contents page for medical examination was positive. In the case of the

  6. Markov chains and mixing times

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, David A; Wilmer, Elizabeth L

    2009-01-01

    This book is an introduction to the modern approach to the theory of Markov chains. The main goal of this approach is to determine the rate of convergence of a Markov chain to the stationary distribution as a function of the size and geometry of the state space. The authors develop the key tools for estimating convergence times, including coupling, strong stationary times, and spectral methods. Whenever possible, probabilistic methods are emphasized. The book includes many examples and provides brief introductions to some central models of statistical mechanics. Also provided are accounts of r

  7. Evaluation of Jefferies' level population ratios, and generalization of Seaton's cascade matrix, by a Markov-chain method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastner, S.O.

    1980-01-01

    Closed expressions are obtained for the conditional probabilities qsub(i)sub(j)sub(,)sub(k) required in evaluating particular ratios of atomic level populations, using a Markov-chain representation of the system of levels. The total transition probability between two arbitrary levels is also evaluated and its relation to population ratios is clarified. It is shown that Seaton's cascade matrix is a subset of the total transition probability matrix. (orig.)

  8. Electromagnetic analysis of ITER shield blanket under VDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang Weishan; Chen Jiming; Wu Jihong; Wang Mingxu

    2010-01-01

    Electromagnetic force and torque of ITER shield blanket system and their surrounding major component under vertical displacement event (VDE) were calculated with finite element method. ANSYS APDL was used to simulate the shape and magnitude of plasmas current dynamically in the VDE course, and external magnetic field was imposed, then the induced current distribution inside the all conductor including the blanket was obtained from the calculation. The force and torque for every blanket module was obtained to assess the safety of blanket system under VDE. (authors)

  9. Decisive Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Henda, Noomene Ben; Mayr, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In part...

  10. Novel blanket design for ICTR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.; Conn, R.W.; Wolfer, W.G.; Larsen, E.N.; Sviatoslavsky, I.N.

    1978-01-01

    A novel blanket design for ICTRs is described. This blanket is used in SOLASE, the conceptual laser fusion reactor of the University of Wisconsin. The blanket to be described offers numerous advantages, including low cost, low weight, low induced radioactivity levels, the potential for hands-on maintenance, modular construction, low pressure, ability to decouple first wall and blanket coolant temperatures, adequate breeding, low tritium inventory and leakage, and sufficiently long life

  11. Markov model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology,. Kharagpur ... the most accepted method for modelling LULCC using current .... We used UTM coordinate system with zone 45 .... need to develop criteria for making decision about.

  12. Markov Networks in Evolutionary Computation

    CERN Document Server

    Shakya, Siddhartha

    2012-01-01

    Markov networks and other probabilistic graphical modes have recently received an upsurge in attention from Evolutionary computation community, particularly in the area of Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs).  EDAs have arisen as one of the most successful experiences in the application of machine learning methods in optimization, mainly due to their efficiency to solve complex real-world optimization problems and their suitability for theoretical analysis. This book focuses on the different steps involved in the conception, implementation and application of EDAs that use Markov networks, and undirected models in general. It can serve as a general introduction to EDAs but covers also an important current void in the study of these algorithms by explaining the specificities and benefits of modeling optimization problems by means of undirected probabilistic models. All major developments to date in the progressive introduction of Markov networks based EDAs are reviewed in the book. Hot current researc...

  13. Magnetoconvection in HCLL blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mistrangelo, C.; Buehler, L.

    2014-01-01

    In the present work we consider magneto-convective flows in one of the proposed European liquid metal blankets that will be tested in the experimental fusion reactor ITER. Here the PbLi alloy is used as breeder material and helium as coolant. In order to finalize the design of the helium cooled lead lithium (HCLL) blanket, studies are still required to fully understand the behavior of the electrically conducting breeder under the influence of the intense magnetic field that confines the fusion plasma and in case of non-uniform thermal conditions. Liquid metal HCLL blanket flows are expected to be mainly driven by buoyancy forces caused by non-isothermal operating conditions due to neutron volumetric heating and cooling of walls, since only a weak forced ow is foreseen for tritium extraction in external ancillary systems. Buoyancy can therefore become very important and modify the velocity distribution and related heat transfer performance of the blanket. The present numerical study aims at clarifying the influence of electromagnetic and thermal coupling of neighboring fluid domains on magneto-convective flows in geometries relevant for the HCLL blanket concept. According to the last design review two internal cooling plates subdivide the fluid domain into three slender flow regions, which are thermally and electrically coupled through common walls. First a uniform volumetric heat source is considered to identify the basic convective patterns that establish in the liquid metal. Results are then compared with those obtained by applying a realistic radial distribution of the power density as obtained from a neutronic analysis. Velocity and temperature distributions are discussed for various volumetric heat sources and magnetic field strengths.

  14. Semi-Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Grabski

    2014-01-01

    Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in System Reliability and Maintenance is a modern view of discrete state space and continuous time semi-Markov processes and their applications in reliability and maintenance. The book explains how to construct semi-Markov models and discusses the different reliability parameters and characteristics that can be obtained from those models. The book is a useful resource for mathematicians, engineering practitioners, and PhD and MSc students who want to understand the basic concepts and results of semi-Markov process theory. Clearly defines the properties and

  15. Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Li-ion Battery for Energy Storage System Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dongjin; Kim, Seok Goo; Choi, Jooho; Lee, Jaewook [Korea Aerospace Univ., Koyang (Korea, Republic of); Song, Hwa Seob; Park, Sang Hui [Hyosung Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the Li-ion battery has gained great interest because it is necessary for quality assurance, operation planning, and determination of the exchange period. This paper presents the RUL estimation of an Li-ion battery for an energy storage system using exponential function for the degradation model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for parameter estimation. The MCMC approach is dependent upon information such as model initial parameters and input setting parameters which highly affect the estimation result. To overcome this difficulty, this paper offers a guideline for model initial parameters based on the regression result, and MCMC input parameters derived by comparisons with a thorough search of theoretical results.

  16. Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Li-ion Battery for Energy Storage System Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dongjin; Kim, Seok Goo; Choi, Jooho; Lee, Jaewook; Song, Hwa Seob; Park, Sang Hui

    2016-01-01

    Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the Li-ion battery has gained great interest because it is necessary for quality assurance, operation planning, and determination of the exchange period. This paper presents the RUL estimation of an Li-ion battery for an energy storage system using exponential function for the degradation model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for parameter estimation. The MCMC approach is dependent upon information such as model initial parameters and input setting parameters which highly affect the estimation result. To overcome this difficulty, this paper offers a guideline for model initial parameters based on the regression result, and MCMC input parameters derived by comparisons with a thorough search of theoretical results

  17. Study of the applicability of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to the statistical separation of electron sources via the impact parameter for ALICE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wittner, Manuel [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Heidelberg, Heidelberg (Germany); Collaboration: ALICE-Collaboration

    2015-07-01

    One particularly interesting measurement detected by the ALICE set-up at the LHC are electrons from charm and beauty hadron decays. Heavy quarks originate from initial hard scattering processes and thus experience the whole history of a heavy ion collision. Therefore, they are valuable probes to study the mechanisms of energy loss and hadronization in the hot and dense state of matter, that is expected to be formed in a heavy-ion collision at LHC. One important task is the distinction of the different electron sources, for which a method was developed. Hereby, the impact parameter distribution of the measurement data is compared with impact parameter distributions for the individual sources, which are created through Monte Carlo simulations. Afterwards, a maximum likelihood fit is applied. However, creating a posterior distribution of the likelihood according to Bayes' theorem and sampling it with Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms provides several advantages, e.g. a mathematically correct estimation of the uncertainties or the usage of prior knowledge. Hence for the first time in this particular problem, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, namely the Metropolis algorithm, was implemented and investigated for its applicability in heavy flavor physics. First studies indicate its great usefulness in this field of physics.

  18. Fields From Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Jørn

    2005-01-01

    A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly.......A simple construction of two-dimensional (2-D) fields is presented. Rows and columns are outcomes of the same Markov chain. The entropy can be calculated explicitly....

  19. Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....

  20. Subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fagnola, Franco; Rebolledo, Rolando

    2002-01-01

    This article introduces a concept of subharmonic projections for a quantum Markov semigroup, in view of characterizing the support projection of a stationary state in terms of the semigroup generator. These results, together with those of our previous article [J. Math. Phys. 42, 1296 (2001)], lead to a method for proving the existence of faithful stationary states. This is often crucial in the analysis of ergodic properties of quantum Markov semigroups. The method is illustrated by applications to physical models

  1. Theoretical methods for neutronics calculations of core-blanket and core-reflector systems in fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corcuera, Roberto.

    1975-12-01

    The present work is a contribution to the neutronics calculational methods of fast neutron reactors. The first step is devoted to the analysis of the validity of the few-groups (of the order of 25) multigroup scheme, and of the transport-correction approximation for the treatment of the scattering anisotropy. This analysis includes both the reactor core, where the usual approximations are found to be satisfactory, and the reflector, where it turns out that the rapid variations of the neutron flux and of it's spectrum necessitate the improvement of the multigroup cross-sections' generation. Therefore, a zero-dimensional simple and accurate model for the average spectrum in the reflector is developed by the space-energy synthesis method. Finally using the Rayleigh-Ritz method, a model is developed in which the flux is spatially represented by an analytical function. This model is applied to the analysis of the sensitivity of reflector neutronics parameters to the variations of the cross sections [fr

  2. Markov chains models, algorithms and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K; Siu, Tak-Kuen

    2013-01-01

    This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data.This book consists of eight chapters.  Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods

  3. Bayesian uncertainty quantification for flows in heterogeneous porous media using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    KAUST Repository

    Mondal, A.

    2010-03-01

    In this paper, we study the uncertainty quantification in inverse problems for flows in heterogeneous porous media. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) are used for hierarchical modeling of channelized permeability fields. Within each channel, the permeability is assumed to have a lognormal distribution. Uncertainty quantification in history matching is carried out hierarchically by constructing geologic facies boundaries as well as permeability fields within each facies using dynamic data such as production data. The search with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm results in very low acceptance rate, and consequently, the computations are CPU demanding. To speed-up the computations, we use a two-stage MCMC that utilizes upscaled models to screen the proposals. In our numerical results, we assume that the channels intersect the wells and the intersection locations are known. Our results show that the proposed algorithms are capable of capturing the channel boundaries and describe the permeability variations within the channels using dynamic production history at the wells. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Blanket for thermonuclear device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozawa, Yoshihiro; Uda, Tatsuhiko; Maki, Koichi.

    1993-01-01

    The present invention provides a blanket of a thermonuclear device which produces tritium fuels consumed in plasmas while converting neutrons generated in the plasmas into heat energy. That is, zirconium is coated to at least one of neutron breeder pebbles and breeder pebbles, to suppress reaction between them by being in direct contact with each other at a high temperature. Further, fins are attached to a cooling pipe at a pitch smaller than the diameter of both of the pebbles, to prevent direct contact at whole surface of the pebbles and the cooling pipe, which would lower a temperature excessively. The length of the fin is controlled to control the thickness of a helium gas gap. With such constitution, direct contact of neutron breeder pebbles and the breeder pebble which are to be filled and mixed, and tend to react at a high temperature, can be prevented. The temperature of the breeding blanket is reliably prevented from lowering below a tritium emitting temperature. The structure is simplified and the production is facilitated. (I.S.)

  5. Fitting Hidden Markov Models to Psychological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Visser

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Markov models have been used extensively in psychology of learning. Applications of hidden Markov models are rare however. This is partially due to the fact that comprehensive statistics for model selection and model assessment are lacking in the psychological literature. We present model selection and model assessment statistics that are particularly useful in applying hidden Markov models in psychology. These statistics are presented and evaluated by simulation studies for a toy example. We compare AIC, BIC and related criteria and introduce a prediction error measure for assessing goodness-of-fit. In a simulation study, two methods of fitting equality constraints are compared. In two illustrative examples with experimental data we apply selection criteria, fit models with constraints and assess goodness-of-fit. First, data from a concept identification task is analyzed. Hidden Markov models provide a flexible approach to analyzing such data when compared to other modeling methods. Second, a novel application of hidden Markov models in implicit learning is presented. Hidden Markov models are used in this context to quantify knowledge that subjects express in an implicit learning task. This method of analyzing implicit learning data provides a comprehensive approach for addressing important theoretical issues in the field.

  6. Markov Tail Chains

    OpenAIRE

    janssen, Anja; Segers, Johan

    2013-01-01

    The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regularly varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper we extend this fact to Markov chains with multivariate regularly varying marginal distributions in Rd. We analyze both the forward and the backward tail process and show that they mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint relation. In ...

  7. Study on the temperature control mechanism of the tritium breeding blanket for CFETR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changle; Qiu, Yang; Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Jianzhong; Li, Lei; Yao, Damao; Li, Guoqiang; Gao, Xiang; Wu, Songtao; Wan, Yuanxi

    2017-12-01

    The Chinese fusion engineering testing reactor (CFETR) will demonstrate tritium self- sufficiency using a tritium breeding blanket for the tritium fuel cycle. The temperature control mechanism (TCM) involves the tritium production of the breeding blanket and has an impact on tritium self-sufficiency. In this letter, the CFETR tritium target is addressed according to its missions. TCM research on the neutronics and thermal hydraulics issues for the CFETR blanket is presented. The key concerns regarding the blanket design for tritium production under temperature field control are depicted. A systematic theory on the TCM is established based on a multiplier blanket model. In particular, a closed-loop method is developed for the mechanism with universal function solutions, which is employed in the CFETR blanket design activity for tritium production. A tritium accumulation phenomenon is found close to the coolant in the blanket interior, which has a very important impact on current blanket concepts using water coolant inside the blanket. In addition, an optimal tritium breeding ratio (TBR) method based on the TCM is proposed, combined with thermal hydraulics and finite element technology. Meanwhile, the energy gain factor is adopted to estimate neutron heat deposition, which is a key parameter relating to the blanket TBR calculations, considering the structural factors. This work will benefit breeding blanket engineering for the CFETR reactor in the future.

  8. Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, H Robert; McCray, Alexa T

    2012-02-03

    Biomedical ontologies have become an increasingly critical lens through which researchers analyze the genomic, clinical and bibliographic data that fuels scientific research. Of particular relevance are methods, such as enrichment analysis, that quantify the importance of ontology classes relative to a collection of domain data. Current analytical techniques, however, remain limited in their ability to handle many important types of structural complexity encountered in real biological systems including class overlaps, continuously valued data, inter-instance relationships, non-hierarchical relationships between classes, semantic distance and sparse data. In this paper, we describe a methodology called Markov Chain Ontology Analysis (MCOA) and illustrate its use through a MCOA-based enrichment analysis application based on a generative model of gene activation. MCOA models the classes in an ontology, the instances from an associated dataset and all directional inter-class, class-to-instance and inter-instance relationships as a single finite ergodic Markov chain. The adjusted transition probability matrix for this Markov chain enables the calculation of eigenvector values that quantify the importance of each ontology class relative to other classes and the associated data set members. On both controlled Gene Ontology (GO) data sets created with Escherichia coli, Drosophila melanogaster and Homo sapiens annotations and real gene expression data extracted from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), the MCOA enrichment analysis approach provides the best performance of comparable state-of-the-art methods. A methodology based on Markov chain models and network analytic metrics can help detect the relevant signal within large, highly interdependent and noisy data sets and, for applications such as enrichment analysis, has been shown to generate superior performance on both real and simulated data relative to existing state-of-the-art approaches.

  9. Blanket comparison and selection study. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-10-01

    This volume contains extensive data for the following chapters: (1) solid breeder tritium recovery, (2) solid breeder blanket designs, (3) alternate blanket concept screening, and (4) safety analysis. The following appendices are also included: (1) blanket design guidelines, (2) power conversion systems, (3) helium-cooled, vanadium alloy structure blanket design, (4) high wall loading study, and (5) molten salt safety studies

  10. Phasic Triplet Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Yazid Boudaren, Mohamed; Monfrini, Emmanuel; Pieczynski, Wojciech; Aïssani, Amar

    2014-11-01

    Hidden Markov chains have been shown to be inadequate for data modeling under some complex conditions. In this work, we address the problem of statistical modeling of phenomena involving two heterogeneous system states. Such phenomena may arise in biology or communications, among other fields. Namely, we consider that a sequence of meaningful words is to be searched within a whole observation that also contains arbitrary one-by-one symbols. Moreover, a word may be interrupted at some site to be carried on later. Applying plain hidden Markov chains to such data, while ignoring their specificity, yields unsatisfactory results. The Phasic triplet Markov chain, proposed in this paper, overcomes this difficulty by means of an auxiliary underlying process in accordance with the triplet Markov chains theory. Related Bayesian restoration techniques and parameters estimation procedures according to the new model are then described. Finally, to assess the performance of the proposed model against the conventional hidden Markov chain model, experiments are conducted on synthetic and real data.

  11. An evaluation of fast reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oosterkamp, W.J.

    1974-01-01

    A comparative study of different types of fast reactor radial blankets is presented. Included are blankets of fertile material UO 2 , THO 2 and Th-metal blankets of pure reflectors C, BeO, Ni and combinations of reflecting and fertile blankets. The results for 1000MWe cores indicate that there is no incentive to use other than fertile blankets. The most favorable fertile material is thorium due to the prospective higher price of U-233

  12. bNEAT: a Bayesian network method for detecting epistatic interactions in genome-wide association studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xue-wen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detecting epistatic interactions plays a significant role in improving pathogenesis, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of complex human diseases. A recent study in automatic detection of epistatic interactions shows that Markov Blanket-based methods are capable of finding genetic variants strongly associated with common diseases and reducing false positives when the number of instances is large. Unfortunately, a typical dataset from genome-wide association studies consists of very limited number of examples, where current methods including Markov Blanket-based method may perform poorly. Results To address small sample problems, we propose a Bayesian network-based approach (bNEAT to detect epistatic interactions. The proposed method also employs a Branch-and-Bound technique for learning. We apply the proposed method to simulated datasets based on four disease models and a real dataset. Experimental results show that our method outperforms Markov Blanket-based methods and other commonly-used methods, especially when the number of samples is small. Conclusions Our results show bNEAT can obtain a strong power regardless of the number of samples and is especially suitable for detecting epistatic interactions with slight or no marginal effects. The merits of the proposed approach lie in two aspects: a suitable score for Bayesian network structure learning that can reflect higher-order epistatic interactions and a heuristic Bayesian network structure learning method.

  13. Spatial-temporal Evolution of Karst Rocky Desertification and Future Trends Based on CA-Markov Methods in Typical Karst Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHEN Fei

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Karst rocky desertification(KRDhas become the most serious ecological disaster in Southwest China. It is very important and much-needed to explore the rule of spatial-temporal evolution of KRD for ecological restoration and sustainable development of the region. In this paper, the improved accurate remote sensing image interpreting method and CA-Markov prediction method were used to explore the spatial-temporal evolution rule of KRD in the study area from 1990 to 2021 based on the long time line remote sensing image of the year of 1990, 2004 and 2016. The results were as follows:the spatial -temporal evolution rule of KRD presented "first deterioration and then improvement" in the study area at nearly 30 years. The deterioration of KRD was affected by high intensity overload human activities and natural disasters in 1990-2004, which made the ecological environment deterioration. However, the KRD had gradually improved with the implementation of a series of governance projects, and a large number of rural labor forces were liberated from the land in 2004-2016, which made the natural environment restoration, and ecological system was getting better and better. At the same time, the trend of KRD evolution was showing improvement from the predicted years of 2016-2021 and the ecological environment in the region continued to become better.

  14. Markov set-chains

    CERN Document Server

    Hartfiel, Darald J

    1998-01-01

    In this study extending classical Markov chain theory to handle fluctuating transition matrices, the author develops a theory of Markov set-chains and provides numerous examples showing how that theory can be applied. Chapters are concluded with a discussion of related research. Readers who can benefit from this monograph are those interested in, or involved with, systems whose data is imprecise or that fluctuate with time. A background equivalent to a course in linear algebra and one in probability theory should be sufficient.

  15. Confluence reduction for Markov automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jaco; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2016-01-01

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. As expected, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of these models. We therefore introduce confluence reduction for Markov automata, a powerful reduction

  16. Assessment of myocardial metabolic rate of glucose by means of Bayesian ICA and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in small animal PET imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berradja, Khadidja; Boughanmi, Nabil

    2016-09-01

    In dynamic cardiac PET FDG studies the assessment of myocardial metabolic rate of glucose (MMRG) requires the knowledge of the blood input function (IF). IF can be obtained by manual or automatic blood sampling and cross calibrated with PET. These procedures are cumbersome, invasive and generate uncertainties. The IF is contaminated by spillover of radioactivity from the adjacent myocardium and this could cause important error in the estimated MMRG. In this study, we show that the IF can be extracted from the images in a rat heart study with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) by means of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) based on Bayesian theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method (BICA). Images of the heart from rats were acquired with the Sherbrooke small animal PET scanner. A region of interest (ROI) was drawn around the rat image and decomposed into blood and tissue using BICA. The Statistical study showed that there is a significant difference (p corrupted with spillover.

  17. Uncertainty of the Soil–Water Characteristic Curve and Its Effects on Slope Seepage and Stability Analysis under Conditions of Rainfall Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiping Liu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available It is important to determine the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC for analyzing slope seepage and stability under the conditions of rainfall. However, SWCCs exhibit high uncertainty because of complex influencing factors, which has not been previously considered in slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall. This study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty of the SWCC and its effects on the seepage and stability analysis of an unsaturated soil slope under conditions of rainfall. The SWCC model parameters were treated as random variables. An uncertainty evaluation of the parameters was conducted based on the Bayesian approach and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. Observed data from granite residual soil were used to test the uncertainty of the SWCC. Then, different confidence intervals for the model parameters of the SWCC were constructed. The slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall with the SWCC of different confidence intervals was investigated using finite element software (SEEP/W and SLOPE/W. The results demonstrated that SWCC uncertainty had significant effects on slope seepage and stability. In general, the larger the percentile value, the greater the reduction of negative pore-water pressure in the soil layer and the lower the safety factor of the slope. Uncertainties in the model parameters of the SWCC can lead to obvious errors in predicted pore-water pressure profiles and the estimated safety factor of the slope under conditions of rainfall.

  18. Process Algebra and Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, Hendrik; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  19. Process algebra and Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Brinksma, E.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, J.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper surveys and relates the basic concepts of process algebra and the modelling of continuous time Markov chains. It provides basic introductions to both fields, where we also study the Markov chains from an algebraic perspective, viz. that of Markov chain algebra. We then proceed to study

  20. Fusion blanket design and optimization techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gohar, Y.

    2005-01-01

    In fusion reactors, the blanket design and its characteristics have a major impact on the reactor performance, size, and economics. The selection and arrangement of the blanket materials, dimensions of the different blanket zones, and different requirements of the selected materials for a satisfactory performance are the main parameters, which define the blanket performance. These parameters translate to a large number of variables and design constraints, which need to be simultaneously considered in the blanket design process. This represents a major design challenge because of the lack of a comprehensive design tool capable of considering all these variables to define the optimum blanket design and satisfying all the design constraints for the adopted figure of merit and the blanket design criteria. The blanket design techniques of the First Wall/Blanket/Shield Design and Optimization System (BSDOS) have been developed to overcome this difficulty and to provide the state-of-the-art techniques and tools for performing blanket design and analysis. This report describes some of the BSDOS techniques and demonstrates its use. In addition, the use of the optimization technique of the BSDOS can result in a significant blanket performance enhancement and cost saving for the reactor design under consideration. In this report, examples are presented, which utilize an earlier version of the ITER solid breeder blanket design and a high power density self-cooled lithium blanket design for demonstrating some of the BSDOS blanket design techniques

  1. Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    be obtained as a limiting value of a sample path of a suitable ... makes a mathematical model of chance and deals with the problem by .... Is the Markov chain aperiodic? It is! Here is how you can see it. Suppose that after you do the cut, you hold the top half in your right hand, and the bottom half in your left. Then there.

  2. Composable Markov Building Blocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.; Prade, H.; Subrahmanian, V.S.

    2007-01-01

    In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models and only one model applies at a time (activity in one model coincides with non-activity in the other models), these models can be joined together into one. Under certain conditions, nearly all

  3. Composable Markov Building Blocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.

    2007-01-01

    In situations where disjunct parts of the same process are described by their own first-order Markov models, these models can be joined together under the constraint that there can only be one activity at a time, i.e. the activities of one model coincide with non-activity in the other models. Under

  4. Perturbed Markov chains

    OpenAIRE

    Solan, Eilon; Vieille, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the transition matrix. We define a new closeness relation between transition matrices, and use graph-theoretic techniques, in contrast with the matrix analysis techniques previously used.

  5. Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 7; Issue 3. Markov Chain Monte Carlo - Examples. Arnab Chakraborty. General Article Volume 7 Issue 3 March 2002 pp 25-34. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/007/03/0025-0034. Keywords.

  6. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  7. Heating facility for blanket and performance test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furuya, Kazuyuki; Kuroda, Toshimasa; Enoeda, Mikio; Sato, Satoshi; Hatano, Toshihisa; Takatsu, Hideyuki; Ohara, Yoshihiro [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Naka, Ibaraki (Japan). Naka Fusion Research Establishment; Hara, Shigemitsu

    1999-03-01

    A design and a fabrication of heating test facility for a mock-up of the blanket module to be installed in International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) have been conducted to evaluate/demonstrate its heat removal performance and structural soundness under cyclic heat loads. To simulate surface heat flux to the blanket module, infrared heating method is adopted so as to heat large surface area uniformly. The infrared heater is used in vacuum environment (10{sup -4} Torr{approx}), and the lamps are cooled by air flowing through an annulus between the lamp and a cover tube made of quartz glass. Elastomer O rings (available to be used up to {approx}300degC) and used for vacuum seal at outer surface of the cover tube. To prevent excessive heating of the O ring, the end part of the cover tube is specially designed including the tube shape, flow path of air and gold coating on the surface of the cover tube to protect the O ring against thermal radiation from glowing tungsten filament. To examine the performance of the facility, steady state and cyclic operation of the infrared heater were conducted using a small-scaled shielding blanket mock-up as a test specimen. The important results are as follows: (1) Heat flux at the surface of the small-scaled mock-up measured by a calorimeter was {approx}0.2 MW/m{sup 2}. (2) A comparison of thermal analysis results and measured temperature responses showed that the small-scaled mock-up had good heat removal performance. (3) Steady state operation and cyclic operation with step response between the rated and zero powers of the infrared heater were successfully performed, and it was confirmed that this heating facility was well-prepared and available for the thermal cyclic test of a blanket module. (author)

  8. Nuclear Analysis of an ITER Blanket Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiovaro, P.; Di Maio, P. A.; Parrinello, V.

    2013-08-01

    ITER blanket system is the reactor's plasma-facing component, it is mainly devoted to provide the thermal and nuclear shielding of the Vacuum Vessel and external ITER components, being intended also to act as plasma limiter. It consists of 440 individual modules which are located in the inboard, upper and outboard regions of the reactor. In this paper attention has been focused on to a single outboard blanket module located in the equatorial zone, whose nuclear response under irradiation has been investigated following a numerical approach based on the Monte Carlo method and adopting the MCNP5 code. The main features of this blanket module nuclear behaviour have been determined, paying particular attention to energy and spatial distribution of the neutron flux and deposited nuclear power together with the spatial distribution of its volumetric density. Moreover, the neutronic damage of the structural material has also been investigated through the evaluation of displacement per atom and helium and hydrogen production rates. Finally, an activation analysis has been performed with FISPACT inventory code using, as input, the evaluated neutron spectrum to assess the module specific activity and contact dose rate after irradiation under a specific operating scenario.

  9. Status of fusion reactor blanket design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Sze, D.K.

    1986-02-01

    The recent Blanket Comparison and Selection Study (BCSS), which was a comprehensive evaluation of fusion reactor blanket design and the status of blanket technology, serves as an excellent basis for further development of blanket technology. This study provided an evaluation of over 130 blanket concepts for the reference case of electric power producing, DT fueled reactors in both Tokamak and Tandem Mirror (TMR) configurations. Based on a specific set of reactor operating parameters, the current understanding of materials and blanket technology, and a uniform evaluation methodology developed as part of the study, a limited number of concepts were identified that offer the greatest potential for making fusion an attractive energy source

  10. About possible technologies of creation nanostructures blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blednova, Zh.M.; Chaevskij, M.I.; Rusinov, P.O.

    2008-01-01

    Possible technologies of formation nanostructures blankets are considered: a method of thermal carrying over of weights in the conditions of a high gradient of temperatures; the combined method including cathode-plasma nitriding in the conditions of low pressure and drawing of nitride of the titan in a uniform work cycle; the combined method including high-frequency ionic nitriding and drawing of carbide of chrome by pyrolysis chrome and organic of connections in plasma of the decaying category. Possibility of formation layered nanostructures layers is shown.

  11. Fusion blanket inherent safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sze, D.K.; Jung, J.; Cheng, E.T.

    1986-01-01

    Fusion has significant potential safety advantages. There is a strong incentive for designing fusion plants to ensure that inherent safety will be achieved. Accordingly, both the Tokamak Power Systems Studies and MINIMARS have identified inherent safety as a design goal. A necessary condition is for the blanket to maintain its configuration and integrity under all credible accident conditions. A main problem is caused by afterheat removal in an accident condition. In this regard, it is highly desirable to achieve the required level of protection of the plant capital investment and limitation of radioactivity release by systems that rely only on inherent properties of matter (e.g., thermal conductivity, specific heat, etc.) and without the use of active safety equipment. This paper assesses the conditions under which inherent safety is feasible. Three types of accident conditions are evaluated for two blankets. The blankets evaluated are a self cooled vanadium/lithium blanket and a self-cooled vanadium/Flibe blanket. The accident conditions evaluated are: (1) loss-of-flow accident; (2) loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA); and (3) partial loss-of-coolant accident

  12. Blanket maintenance by remote means using the cassette blanket approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, R.W.

    1978-01-01

    Induced radioactivity in the blanket and other parts of a fusion reactor close to the plasma zone will dictate remote assembly, disassembly, and maintenance procedures. Time will be of the essence in these procedures. They must be practicable and certain. This paper discusses the reduction of a complicated Tokamak reactor to a simpler assembly via the use of a vacuum building in which to house the reactor and the introduction in this new model of cassette blanket modules. The cassettes significantly simplify remote handling

  13. ANALYTIC WORD RECOGNITION WITHOUT SEGMENTATION BASED ON MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coisy, C.; Belaid, A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, a method for analytic handwritten word recognition based on causal Markov random fields is described. The words models are HMMs where each state corresponds to a letter; each letter is modelled by a NSHP­HMM (Markov field). Global models are build dynamically, and used for recognition

  14. Blanket safety by GEMSAFE methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawada, Tetsuo; Saito, Masaki

    2001-01-01

    General Methodology of Safety Analysis and Evaluation for Fusion Energy Systems (GEMSAFE) has been applied to a number of fusion system designs, such as R-tokamak, Fusion Experimental Reactor (FER), and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) designs in the both stages of Conceptual Design Activities (CDA) and Engineering Design Activities (EDA). Though the major objective of GEMSAFE is to reasonably select design basis events (DBEs) it is also useful to elucidate related safety functions as well as requirements to ensure its safety. In this paper, we apply the methodology to fusion systems with future tritium breeding blankets and make clear which points of the system should be of concern from safety ensuring point of view. In this context, we have obtained five DBEs that are related to the blanket system. We have also clarified the safety functions required to prevent accident propagations initiated by those blanket-specific DBEs. The outline of the methodology is also reviewed. (author)

  15. Development of blanket remote maintenance system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakudate, Satoshi; Nakahira, Masataka; Oka, Kiyoshi; Taguchi, Kou

    1998-01-01

    ITER in-vessel components such as blankets are scheduled maintenance components, including complete shield blanket replacement for breeding blankets. In-vessel components are activated by 14 MeV neutrons, so blanket maintenance requires remote handling equipment and tools able to handle heavy payloads of about 4 tons within a positioning accuracy of 2 mm under intense gamma radiation. To facilitate remote maintenance, blankets are segmented into 730 modules and rail-mounted vehicle remote maintenance was developed. According to the ITER R and D program, critical technology related to blanket maintenance was developed extensively through joint efforts of the Japan, EU, and U.S. home teams. This paper summarizes current blanket maintenance technology conducted by the Japan Home Team, including development of full-scale remote handling equipment and tools for blanket maintenance. (author)

  16. Development of blanket remote maintenance system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kakudate, Satoshi; Nakahira, Masataka; Oka, Kiyoshi; Taguchi, Kou [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1998-04-01

    ITER in-vessel components such as blankets are scheduled maintenance components, including complete shield blanket replacement for breeding blankets. In-vessel components are activated by 14 MeV neutrons, so blanket maintenance requires remote handling equipment and tools able to handle heavy payloads of about 4 tons within a positioning accuracy of 2 mm under intense gamma radiation. To facilitate remote maintenance, blankets are segmented into 730 modules and rail-mounted vehicle remote maintenance was developed. According to the ITER R and D program, critical technology related to blanket maintenance was developed extensively through joint efforts of the Japan, EU, and U.S. home teams. This paper summarizes current blanket maintenance technology conducted by the Japan Home Team, including development of full-scale remote handling equipment and tools for blanket maintenance. (author)

  17. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  18. Generalized Markov branching models

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Junping

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis, we first considered a modified Markov branching process incorporating both state-independent immigration and resurrection. After establishing the criteria for regularity and uniqueness, explicit expressions for the extinction probability and mean extinction time are presented. The criteria for recurrence and ergodicity are also established. In addition, an explicit expression for the equilibrium distribution is presented.\\ud \\ud We then moved on to investigate the basic proper...

  19. Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Ragain, Stephen; Ugander, Johan

    2016-01-01

    As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale---particularly in online domains---there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansio...

  20. Distinguishing Hidden Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Kiefer, Stefan; Sistla, A. Prasad

    2015-01-01

    Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of distinguishing two given HMCs based on an observation sequence that one of the HMCs generates. More precisely, given two HMCs and an observation sequence, a distinguishing algorithm is expected to identify the HMC that generates the observation sequence. Two HM...

  1. Fermionic Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Fannes, Mark; Wouters, Jeroen

    2012-01-01

    We study a quantum process that can be considered as a quantum analogue for the classical Markov process. We specifically construct a version of these processes for free Fermions. For such free Fermionic processes we calculate the entropy density. This can be done either directly using Szeg\\"o's theorem for asymptotic densities of functions of Toeplitz matrices, or through an extension of said theorem to rates of functions, which we present in this article.

  2. Pemodelan Markov Switching Autoregressive

    OpenAIRE

    Ariyani, Fiqria Devi; Warsito, Budi; Yasin, Hasbi

    2014-01-01

    Transition from depreciation to appreciation of exchange rate is one of regime switching that ignored by classic time series model, such as ARIMA, ARCH, or GARCH. Therefore, economic variables are modeled by Markov Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) which consider the regime switching. MLE is not applicable to parameters estimation because regime is an unobservable variable. So that filtering and smoothing process are applied to see the regime probabilities of observation. Using this model, tran...

  3. Using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to study the physical properties of GeV-TeV BL Lac objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Longhua; Wang, Jiancheng; Yang, Chuyuan; Yuan, Zunli; Mao, Jirong; Kang, Shiju

    2018-01-01

    We fit the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of 46 GeV-TeV BL Lac objects in the frame of leptonic one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model and investigate the physical properties of these objects. We use the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to obtain the basic parameters, such as magnetic field (B), the break energy of the relativistic electron distribution (γ ^' }b), and the electron energy spectral index. Based on the modeling results, we support the following scenarios for GeV-TeV BL Lac objects. (1) Some sources have large Doppler factors, implying other radiation mechanism should be considered. (2) Compared with flat spectrum quasars (FSRQs), GeV-TeV BL Lac objects have weaker magnetic fields and larger Doppler factors, which cause the ineffective cooling and shift the SEDs to higher bands. Their jet powers are around 4.0 × 1045 erg s-1, compared with radiation power, 5.0 × 1042 erg s-1, indicating that only a small fraction of jet power is transformed into the emission power. (3) For some BL Lacs with large Doppler factors, their jet components could have two substructures, e.g., the fast core and the slow sheath. For most GeV-TeV BL Lacs, Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities are suppressed by their higher magnetic fields, leading to micro-variability or intro-day variability in the optical bands. (4) Combined with a sample of FSRQs, an anti-correlation between the peak luminosity, Lpk, and the peak frequency, νpk, is obtained, favoring the blazar sequence scenario. In addition, an anti-correlation between the jet power, Pjet, and the break Lorentz factor, γb, also supports the blazar sequence.

  4. Concepts for fusion fuel production blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gierszewski, P.

    1986-06-01

    The fusion blanket surrounds the burning hydrogen core of the fusion reactor. It is in this blanket that most of the energy released by the DT fusion reaction is converted into useable product, and where tritium fuel is produced to enable further operation of the reactor. Blankets will involve new materials, conditions and processes. Several recent fusion blanket concepts are presented to illustrate the range of ideas

  5. Blanket Manufacturing Technologies : Thermomechanical Tests on HCLL Blanket Mocks Up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laffont, G.; Cachon, L.; Taraud, P.; Challet, F.; Rampal, G.; Salavy, J.F.

    2006-01-01

    In the Helium Cooled Lithium Lead (HCLL) Blanket concept, the lithium lead plays the double role of breeder and multiplier material, and the helium is used as coolant. The HCCL Blanket Module are made of steel boxes reinforced by stiffening plates. These stiffening plates form cells in which the breeder is slowly flowing. The power deposited in the breeder material is recovered by the breeder cooling units constituted by 5 parallel cooling plates. All the structures such as first wall, stiffening and cooling plates are cooled by helium. Due to the complex geometry of these parts and the high level of pressure and temperature loading, thermo-mechanical phenomena expected in the '' HCLL blanket concept '' have motivated the present study. The aim of this study, carried out in the frame of EFDA Work program, is to validate the manufacturing technologies of HCLL blanket module by testing small scale mock-up under breeder blanket representative operating conditions.The first step of this experimental program is the design and manufacturing of a relevant test section in the DIADEMO facility, which was recently upgraded with an He cooling loop (pressure of 80 bar, maximum temperature of 500 o C,flow rate of 30 g/s) taking the opportunity of synergies with the gas-cooled fission reactor R-and-D program. The second step will deal with the thermo-mechanical tests. This paper focuses on the program made to support the cooling plate mock up tests which will be carried out on the DIADEMO facility (CEA) by thermo-mechanical calculations in order to define the relevant test conditions and the experimental parameters to be monitored. (author)

  6. A relation between non-Markov and Markov processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hara, H.

    1980-01-01

    With the aid of a transformation technique, it is shown that some memory effects in the non-Markov processes can be eliminated. In other words, some non-Markov processes are rewritten in a form obtained by the random walk process; the Markov process. To this end, two model processes which have some memory or correlation in the random walk process are introduced. An explanation of the memory in the processes is given. (orig.)

  7. A Martingale Decomposition of Discrete Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard

    We consider a multivariate time series whose increments are given from a homogeneous Markov chain. We show that the martingale component of this process can be extracted by a filtering method and establish the corresponding martingale decomposition in closed-form. This representation is useful fo...

  8. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  9. Hidden Markov models for labeled sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1994-01-01

    A hidden Markov model for labeled observations, called a class HMM, is introduced and a maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Instead of training it to model the statistics of the training sequences it is trained to optimize recognition. It resembles MMI...

  10. Breeding blankets for thermonuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rocaboy, Alain.

    1982-06-01

    Materials with structures suitable for this purpose are studied. A bibliographic review of the main solid and liquid lithiated compounds is then presented. Erosion, dimensioning and maintenance problems associated with the limiter and the first wall of the reactor are studied from the point of view of the constraints they impose on the design of the blankets. Detailed studies of the main solid and liquid blanket concepts enable the best technological compromises to be determined for the indispensable functions of the blanket to be assured under acceptable conditions. Our analysis leads to four classes of solution, which cannot at this stage be considered as final recommendations, but which indicate what sort of solutions it is worthwhile exploring and comparing in order to be in a position to suggest a realistic blanket at the time when plasma control is sufficiently good for power reactors to be envisaged. Some considerations on the general architecture of the reactor are indicated. Energy storage with pulsed reactors is discussed in the appendix, and a first approach made to minimizing the total tritium recovery [fr

  11. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Author Affiliations. K B Athreya1 Mohan Delampady2 T Krishnan3. School of ORIE Rhodes Hall Cornell University, Ithaca New York 14853, USA; Indian Statistical Institute 8th Mile, Mysore Road Bangalore 560059, India. Systat Software Asia-Pacific Ltd. Floor 5, 'C' Tower Golden Enclave, Airport Road Bangalore 560 017, ...

  12. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K B Athreya1 Mohan Delampady2 T Krishnan3. School of ORIE Rhodes Hall Cornell University, Ithaca New York 14853, USA. Indian Statistical Institute 8th Mile, Mysore Rood Bangalore 560 059, India. Systat Software Asia-Pacific Ltd. Floor 5, 'C' Tower Golden Enclave, Airport Rood Bangalore 560 017, India.

  13. Status of blanket design for RTO/RC ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, M.; Ioki, K.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Miki, N.

    2000-01-01

    Design has progressed on the FW/blanket for the RTO/RC (reduced technical objective/ reduced cost) ITER. The basic functions and structures are the same as for the 1998 ITER design. However, design and fabrication methods of the FW/blanket have been improved to achieve ∝ 50% reduction of the construction cost compared to that for the 1998 ITER design. Detailed blanket module designs with flat separable FW panels have been developed to reduce the fabrication cost and the future radioactive waste. Most of the R and D performed so far during the EDA (engineering design activity) is still applicable. Further cost reduction methods are also being investigated and additional R and D is being performed. (orig.)

  14. Non-stationary Markov chains

    OpenAIRE

    Mallak, Saed

    1996-01-01

    Ankara : Department of Mathematics and Institute of Engineering and Sciences of Bilkent University, 1996. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 1996. Includes bibliographical references leaves leaf 29 In thi.s work, we studierl the Ergodicilv of Non-Stationary .Markov chains. We gave several e.xainples with different cases. We proved that given a sec[uence of Markov chains such that the limit of this sec|uence is an Ergodic Markov chain, then the limit of the combination ...

  15. Disruption problematics in segmented blanket concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crutzen, Y.; Fantechi, S.; Farfaletti-Casali, F.

    1994-01-01

    In Tokamaks, the hostile operating environment originated by plasma disruption events requires that the first wall/blanket/shield components sustain the large induced electromagnetic (EM) forces without significant structural deformation and within allowable material stresses. As a consequence there is a need to improve the safety features of the blanket design concepts satisfying the disruption problematics and to formulate guidelines on the required internal reinforcements of the blanket components. The present paper describes the recent investigations on blanket reinforcement systems needed in order to optimize the first-wall/blanket/shield structural design for next step and commercial fusion reactors in the context of ITER, DEMO and SEAFP activities

  16. Fusion reactor blanket-main design aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strebkov, Yu.; Sidorov, A.; Danilov, I.

    1994-01-01

    The main function of the fusion reactor blanket is ensuring tritium breeding and radiation shield. The blanket version depends on the reactor type (experimental, DEMO, commercial) and its parameters. Blanket operation conditions are defined with the heat flux, neutron load/fluence, cyclic operation, dynamic heating/force loading, MHD effects etc. DEMO/commercial blanket design is distinguished e.g. by rather high heat load and neutron fluence - up to 100 W/cm 2 and 7 MWa/m 2 accordingly. This conditions impose specific requirements for the materials, structure, maintenance of the blanket and its most loaded components - FW and limiter. The liquid Li-Pb eutectic is one of the possible breeder for different kinds of blanket in view of its advantages one of which is the blanket convertibility that allow to have shielding blanket (borated water) or breeding one (Li-Pb eutectic). Using Li-Pb eutectic for both ITER and DEMO blankets have been considered. In the conceptual ITER design the solid eutectic blanket was carried out. The liquid eutectic breeder/coolant is suggested also for the advanced (high parameter) blanket

  17. Musical Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchenkov, Dima; Dawin, Jean René

    A system for using dice to compose music randomly is known as the musical dice game. The discrete time MIDI models of 804 pieces of classical music written by 29 composers have been encoded into the transition matrices and studied by Markov chains. Contrary to human languages, entropy dominates over redundancy, in the musical dice games based on the compositions of classical music. The maximum complexity is achieved on the blocks consisting of just a few notes (8 notes, for the musical dice games generated over Bach's compositions). First passage times to notes can be used to resolve tonality and feature a composer.

  18. On Weak Markov's Principle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kohlenbach, Ulrich Wilhelm

    2002-01-01

    We show that the so-called weak Markov's principle (WMP) which states that every pseudo-positive real number is positive is underivable in E-HA + AC. Since allows one to formalize (atl eastl arge parts of) Bishop's constructive mathematics, this makes it unlikely that WMP can be proved within...... the framework of Bishop-style mathematics (which has been open for about 20 years). The underivability even holds if the ine.ective schema of full comprehension (in all types) for negated formulas (in particular for -free formulas) is added, which allows one to derive the law of excluded middle...

  19. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-19

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  20. Nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes

    CERN Document Server

    Silvestrov, Dmitrii

    2017-01-01

    The book presents new methods of asymptotic analysis for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with a finite phase space. These methods are based on special time-space screening procedures for sequential phase space reduction of semi-Markov processes combined with the systematical use of operational calculus for Laurent asymptotic expansions. Effective recurrent algorithms are composed for getting asymptotic expansions, without and with explicit upper bounds for remainders, for power moments of hitting times, stationary and conditional quasi-stationary distributions for nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes. These results are illustrated by asymptotic expansions for birth-death-type semi-Markov processes, which play an important role in various applications. The book will be a useful contribution to the continuing intensive studies in the area. It is an essential reference for theoretical and applied researchers in the field of stochastic processes and their applications that will cont...

  1. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  2. Sampling rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitelam, Stephen

    2018-03-01

    We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate functions (and upper bounds on such functions) for dynamical quantities extensive in the length of the Markov chain. We illustrate the method using a series of simple examples, and use it to study the fluctuations of a lattice-based model of active matter that can undergo motility-induced phase separation.

  3. Design study of blanket structure for tokamak experimental fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-11-01

    Design study of the blanket structure for JAERI Experimental Fusion Reactor (JXFR) has been carried out. Studied here were fabrication and testing of the blanket structure (blanket cells, blanket rings, piping and blanket modules), assembly and disassembly of the blanket module, and monitering and testing technique. Problems in design and fabrication of the blanket structure could be revealed. Research and development problems for the future were also disclosed. (author)

  4. MIT LMFBR blanket physics project progress report No. 7, July 1, 1975--September 30, 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driscoll, M.J.

    1976-01-01

    Work during the period was devoted primarily to a range of analytical/numerical investigations, including evaluation of means to improve external blanket designs, beneficial attributes of the use of internal blankets, improved methods for the calculation of heterogeneous self-shielding and parametric studies of calculated spectral indices. Experimental work included measurements of the ratio of U-238 captures to U-235 fissions in a standard blanket mockup, and completion of development work on the radiophotoluminescent readout of LiF thermoluminescent detectors. The most significant findings were that there is very little prospect for substantial improvement in the breeding performance of external blankets, but internal blankets continue to show promise, particularly if they are used in such a way as to increase the volume fraction of fuel inside the core envelope. An improved equivalence theorem was developed which may allow use of fast reactor methods to calculate heterogeneously self-shielded cross sections in both fast and thermal reactors

  5. The TFTR lithium blanket module program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jassby, D.L.; Bertone, P.C.; Creedon, R.L.; File, J.; Graumann, D.W.

    1985-01-01

    The Lithium Blanket Module (LBM) is an approximately 80X80X80 cm cubic module, representative of a helium-cooled lithium oxide fusion reactor blanket module, that will be installed on the TFTR (Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor) in late 1986. The principal objective of the LBM Program is to perform a series of neutron transport and tritium-breeding measurements throughout the LBM when it is exposed to the TFTR toroidal fusion neutron source, and to compare these data with the predictions of Monte Carlo (MCNP) neutronics codes. The LBM consists of 920 2.5-cm diameter breeder rods constructed of lithium oxide (Li 2 O) pellets housed in thin-walled stainless steel tubes. Procedures for mass-producing 25,000 Li 2 O pellets with satisfactory reproducibility were developed using purified Li 2 O powder, and fabrication of all the breeder rods was completed in early 1985. Tritium assay methods were investigated experimentally using both small lithium metal samples and LBM-type pellets. This work demonstrated that the thermal extraction method will be satisfactory for accurate evaluation of the minute concentrations of tritium expected in the LBM pellets (0.1-1nCi/g)

  6. Nonlinear Markov processes: Deterministic case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.D.

    2008-01-01

    Deterministic Markov processes that exhibit nonlinear transition mechanisms for probability densities are studied. In this context, the following issues are addressed: Markov property, conditional probability densities, propagation of probability densities, multistability in terms of multiple stationary distributions, stability analysis of stationary distributions, and basin of attraction of stationary distribution

  7. A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (SPHOMMCM) is presented. Moreover, parameter estimation method of TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments shows the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  8. A tridiagonal parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present a tridiagonal parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (TPHOMMCM). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

  9. Flux through a Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Floriani, Elena; Lima, Ricardo; Ourrad, Ouerdia; Spinelli, Lionel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The flux through a Markov chain of a conserved quantity (mass) is studied. • Mass is supplied by an external source and ends in the absorbing states of the chain. • Meaningful for modeling open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property. • The analytical expression of mass distribution is given for a constant source. • The expression of mass distribution is given for periodic or random sources. - Abstract: In this paper we study the flux through a finite Markov chain of a quantity, that we will call mass, which moves through the states of the chain according to the Markov transition probabilities. Mass is supplied by an external source and accumulates in the absorbing states of the chain. We believe that studying how this conserved quantity evolves through the transient (non-absorbing) states of the chain could be useful for the modelization of open systems whose dynamics has a Markov property.

  10. Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin

    2016-01-01

    This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis

  11. Effect of reactor size on the breeding economics of LMFBR blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tagishi, A.; Driscoll, M.J.

    1975-02-01

    The effect of reactor size on the neutronic and economic performance of LMFBR blankets driven by radially-power-flattened cores has been investigated using both simple models and state-of-the-art computer methods. Reactor power ratings in the range 250 to 3000 MW(e) were considered. Correlations for economic breakeven and optimum irradiation times and blanket thicknesses have been developed for batch-irradiated blankets. It is shown that a given distance from the core-blanket interface the fissile buildup rate per unit volume remains very nearly constant in the radial blanket as (radially-power-flattened, constant-height) core size increases. As a consequence, annual revenue per blanket assembly, and breakeven and optimum irradiation times and optimum blanket dimensions, are the same for all reactor sizes. It is also shown that the peripheral core fissile enrichment, hence neutron leakage spectra, of the (radially-power-flattened, constant-height) cores remains essentially constant as core size increases. Coupled with the preceding observations, this insures that radial blanket breeding performance in demonstration-size LMFBR units will be a good measure of that in much larger commercial LMFBR's

  12. Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abner, Erin L; Charnigo, Richard J; Kryscio, Richard J

    2013-10-25

    A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields.

  13. Markov's theorem and algorithmically non-recognizable combinatorial manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shtan'ko, M A

    2004-01-01

    We prove the theorem of Markov on the existence of an algorithmically non-recognizable combinatorial n-dimensional manifold for every n≥4. We construct for the first time a concrete manifold which is algorithmically non-recognizable. A strengthened form of Markov's theorem is proved using the combinatorial methods of regular neighbourhoods and handle theory. The proofs coincide for all n≥4. We use Borisov's group with insoluble word problem. It has two generators and twelve relations. The use of this group forms the base for proving the strengthened form of Markov's theorem

  14. Blanket comparison and selection study. Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-10-01

    The objectives of the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study (BCSS) can be stated as follows: (1) Define a small number (approx. 3) of blanket design concepts that should be the focus of the blanket R and D program. A design concept is defined by the selection of all materials (e.g., breeder, coolant, structure and multiplier) and other major characteristics that significantly influence the R and D requirements. (2) Identify and prioritize the critical issues for the leading blanket concepts. (3) Provide the technical input necessary to develop a blanket R and D program plan. Guidelines for prioritizing the R and D requirements include: (a) critical feasibility issues for the leading blanket concepts will receive the highest priority, and (b) for equally important feasibility issues, higher R and D priority will be given to those that require minimum cost and short time

  15. Design requirement on HYPER blanket fuel assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Woan; Lee, B. O.; Nam, C.; Ryu, W. S.; Lee, B. S.; Park, W. S.

    2000-07-01

    This document describes design requirements which are needed for designing the blanket assembly of the HYPER as design guidance. The blanket assembly of the HYPER consists of blanket fuel rods, mounting rail, spacer, upper nozzle with handling socket, bottom nozzle with mounting rail and skeleton structure. The blanket fuel rod consists of top end plug, bottom end plug with key way, blanket fuel slug, and cladding. In the assembly, the rods are in a triangular pitch array. This report contains functional requirements, performance and operational requirements, interfacing systems requirements, core restraint and interface requirements, design limits and strength requirements, system configuration and essential feature requirements, seismic requirements, structural requirements, environmental requirements, reliability and safety requirements, standard and codes, QA programs, and other requirements for the blanket fuel assembly of the HYPER

  16. Modeling Uncertainty of Directed Movement via Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YIN Zhangcai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic time geography (PTG is suggested as an extension of (classical time geography, in order to present the uncertainty of an agent located at the accessible position by probability. This may provide a quantitative basis for most likely finding an agent at a location. In recent years, PTG based on normal distribution or Brown bridge has been proposed, its variance, however, is irrelevant with the agent's speed or divergent with the increase of the speed; so they are difficult to take into account application pertinence and stability. In this paper, a new method is proposed to model PTG based on Markov chain. Firstly, a bidirectional conditions Markov chain is modeled, the limit of which, when the moving speed is large enough, can be regarded as the Brown bridge, thus has the characteristics of digital stability. Then, the directed movement is mapped to Markov chains. The essential part is to build step length, the state space and transfer matrix of Markov chain according to the space and time position of directional movement, movement speed information, to make sure the Markov chain related to the movement speed. Finally, calculating continuously the probability distribution of the directed movement at any time by the Markov chains, it can be get the possibility of an agent located at the accessible position. Experimental results show that, the variance based on Markov chains not only is related to speed, but also is tending towards stability with increasing the agent's maximum speed.

  17. Liquid metal cooled blanket concept for NET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malang, S.; Casal, V.; Arheidt, K.; Fischer, U.; Link, W.; Rust, K.

    1986-01-01

    A blanket concept for NET using liquid lithium-lead both as breeder material and as coolant is described. The need for inboard breeding is avoided by using beryllium as neutron multiplier in the outboard blanket. Novel flow channel inserts are employed in all poloidal ducts to reduce the MHD pressure drop. The concept offers a simple mechanical design and a higher tritium breeding ratio compared to water- and gas-cooled blankets. (author)

  18. Fusion blankets for high efficiency power cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powell, J.R.; Fillo, J.A.; Horn, F.L.; Lazareth, O.W.; Usher, J.L.

    1980-04-01

    Definitions are given of 10 generic blanket types and the specific blanket chosen to be analyzed in detail from each of the 10 types. Dimensions, compositions, energy depositions and breeding ratios (where applicable) are presented for each of the 10 designs. Ultimately, based largely on neutronics and thermal hyraulics results, breeding an nonbreeding blanket options are selected for further design analysis and integration with a suitable power conversion subsystem

  19. Performance evaluation on force control for ITER blanket installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aburadani, A., E-mail: aburadani.atsushi@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Mukouyama 801-1, Naka, Ibaraki 311-0193 (Japan); Takeda, N.; Shigematsu, S.; Murakami, S.; Tanigawa, H.; Kakudate, S. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Mukouyama 801-1, Naka, Ibaraki 311-0193 (Japan); Nakahira, M.; Hamilton, D.; Tesini, A. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 Saint Paul Lez Durance (France)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: ► It is crucial issues to avoid any jamming between the blanket modules and the keys. ► Force control for AC servo motor was developed to reduce excessive loads. ► This jam prevention force control method is directly measured and controlled by AC servo motor controllers. ► In the recent test, the module was passively positioned onto keys using the torque control method. -- Abstract: The most critical issue for the ITER blanket installation is to avoid any jamming between the blanket modules and the keys as a result of excessive loading during the module installation process. This is complicated by the limited clearance of 0.5 mm between the modules and the keys. To solve these technical issues, force control, such as controlling the torque for the AC servo motors, was developed to reduce excessive loads which may have an impact on the end-effector and to defer the forces acting on the groove of the blanket. This jam prevention force control method is directly measured and controlled by AC servo motor controllers. The AC servo motors are equipped to move the manipulator and end-effector during module installation.

  20. Performance evaluation on force control for ITER blanket installation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aburadani, A.; Takeda, N.; Shigematsu, S.; Murakami, S.; Tanigawa, H.; Kakudate, S.; Nakahira, M.; Hamilton, D.; Tesini, A.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► It is crucial issues to avoid any jamming between the blanket modules and the keys. ► Force control for AC servo motor was developed to reduce excessive loads. ► This jam prevention force control method is directly measured and controlled by AC servo motor controllers. ► In the recent test, the module was passively positioned onto keys using the torque control method. -- Abstract: The most critical issue for the ITER blanket installation is to avoid any jamming between the blanket modules and the keys as a result of excessive loading during the module installation process. This is complicated by the limited clearance of 0.5 mm between the modules and the keys. To solve these technical issues, force control, such as controlling the torque for the AC servo motors, was developed to reduce excessive loads which may have an impact on the end-effector and to defer the forces acting on the groove of the blanket. This jam prevention force control method is directly measured and controlled by AC servo motor controllers. The AC servo motors are equipped to move the manipulator and end-effector during module installation

  1. Low technology high tritium breeding blanket concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gohar, Y.; Baker, C.C.; Smith, D.L.

    1987-10-01

    The main function of this low technology blanket is to produce the necessary tritium for INTOR operation with minimum first wall coverage. The INTOR first wall, blanket, and shield are constrained by the dimensions of the reference design and the protection criteria required for different reactor components and dose equivalent after shutdown in the reactor hall. It is assumed that the blanket operation at commercial power reactor conditions and the proper temperature for power generation can be sacrificed to achieve the highest possible tritium breeding ratio with minimum additional research and developments and minimal impact on reactor design and operation. A set of blanket evaluation criteria has been used to compare possible blanket concepts. Six areas: performance, operating requirements, impact on reactor design and operation, safety and environmental impact, technology assessment, and cost have been defined for the evaluation process. A water-cooled blanket was developed to operate with a low temperature and pressure. The developed blanket contains a 24 cm of beryllium and 6 cm of solid breeder both with a 0.8 density factor. This blanket provides a local tritium breeding ratio of ∼2.0. The water coolant is isolated from the breeder material by several zones which eliminates the tritium buildup in the water by permeation and reduces the changes for water-breeder interaction. This improves the safety and environmental aspects of the blanket and eliminates the costly process of the tritium recovery from the water. 12 refs., 13 tabs

  2. Regeneration and general Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Kalashnikov

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Ergodicity, continuity, finite approximations and rare visits of general Markov chains are investigated. The obtained results permit further quantitative analysis of characteristics, such as, rates of convergence, continuity (measured as a distance between perturbed and non-perturbed characteristics, deviations between Markov chains, accuracy of approximations and bounds on the distribution function of the first visit time to a chosen subset, etc. The underlying techniques use the embedding of the general Markov chain into a wide sense regenerative process with the help of splitting construction.

  3. Markov chains theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Sericola, Bruno

    2013-01-01

    Markov chains are a fundamental class of stochastic processes. They are widely used to solve problems in a large number of domains such as operational research, computer science, communication networks and manufacturing systems. The success of Markov chains is mainly due to their simplicity of use, the large number of available theoretical results and the quality of algorithms developed for the numerical evaluation of many metrics of interest.The author presents the theory of both discrete-time and continuous-time homogeneous Markov chains. He carefully examines the explosion phenomenon, the

  4. Quadratic Variation by Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Horel, Guillaume

    We introduce a novel estimator of the quadratic variation that is based on the the- ory of Markov chains. The estimator is motivated by some general results concerning filtering contaminated semimartingales. Specifically, we show that filtering can in prin- ciple remove the effects of market...... microstructure noise in a general framework where little is assumed about the noise. For the practical implementation, we adopt the dis- crete Markov chain model that is well suited for the analysis of financial high-frequency prices. The Markov chain framework facilitates simple expressions and elegant analyti...

  5. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  6. Stochastic Dynamics through Hierarchically Embedded Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Fernando P; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

    2017-02-03

    Studying dynamical phenomena in finite populations often involves Markov processes of significant mathematical and/or computational complexity, which rapidly becomes prohibitive with increasing population size or an increasing number of individual configuration states. Here, we develop a framework that allows us to define a hierarchy of approximations to the stationary distribution of general systems that can be described as discrete Markov processes with time invariant transition probabilities and (possibly) a large number of states. This results in an efficient method for studying social and biological communities in the presence of stochastic effects-such as mutations in evolutionary dynamics and a random exploration of choices in social systems-including situations where the dynamics encompasses the existence of stable polymorphic configurations, thus overcoming the limitations of existing methods. The present formalism is shown to be general in scope, widely applicable, and of relevance to a variety of interdisciplinary problems.

  7. Markov Processes in Image Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

    2018-05-01

    Digital images are used as an information carrier in different sciences and technologies. The aspiration to increase the number of bits in the image pixels for the purpose of obtaining more information is observed. In the paper, some methods of compression and contour detection on the basis of two-dimensional Markov chain are offered. Increasing the number of bits on the image pixels will allow one to allocate fine object details more precisely, but it significantly complicates image processing. The methods of image processing do not concede by the efficiency to well-known analogues, but surpass them in processing speed. An image is separated into binary images, and processing is carried out in parallel with each without an increase in speed, when increasing the number of bits on the image pixels. One more advantage of methods is the low consumption of energy resources. Only logical procedures are used and there are no computing operations. The methods can be useful in processing images of any class and assignment in processing systems with a limited time and energy resources.

  8. Improvement of Fuzzy Image Contrast Enhancement Using Simulated Ergodic Fuzzy Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behrouz Fathi-Vajargah

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel fuzzy enhancement technique using simulated ergodic fuzzy Markov chains for low contrast brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI. The fuzzy image contrast enhancement is proposed by weighted fuzzy expected value. The membership values are then modified to enhance the image using ergodic fuzzy Markov chains. The qualitative performance of the proposed method is compared to another method in which ergodic fuzzy Markov chains are not considered. The proposed method produces better quality image.

  9. Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo

    CERN Document Server

    Brooks, Steve

    2011-01-01

    ""Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo"" brings together the major advances that have occurred in recent years while incorporating enough introductory material for new users of MCMC. Along with thorough coverage of the theoretical foundations and algorithmic and computational methodology, this comprehensive handbook includes substantial realistic case studies from a variety of disciplines. These case studies demonstrate the application of MCMC methods and serve as a series of templates for the construction, implementation, and choice of MCMC methodology.

  10. Reliability estimation of semi-Markov systems: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouhbi, Brahim; Limnios, Nikolaos

    1997-01-01

    In this article, we are concerned with the estimation of the reliability and the availability of a turbo-generator rotor using a set of data observed in a real engineering situation provided by Electricite De France (EDF). The rotor is modeled by a semi-Markov process, which is used to estimate the rotor's reliability and availability. To do this, we present a method for estimating the semi-Markov kernel from a censored data

  11. Modeling nonhomogeneous Markov processes via time transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, R A; Inoue, L Y T; Fann, J R

    2008-09-01

    Longitudinal studies are a powerful tool for characterizing the course of chronic disease. These studies are usually carried out with subjects observed at periodic visits giving rise to panel data. Under this observation scheme the exact times of disease state transitions and sequence of disease states visited are unknown and Markov process models are often used to describe disease progression. Most applications of Markov process models rely on the assumption of time homogeneity, that is, that the transition rates are constant over time. This assumption is not satisfied when transition rates depend on time from the process origin. However, limited statistical tools are available for dealing with nonhomogeneity. We propose models in which the time scale of a nonhomogeneous Markov process is transformed to an operational time scale on which the process is homogeneous. We develop a method for jointly estimating the time transformation and the transition intensity matrix for the time transformed homogeneous process. We assess maximum likelihood estimation using the Fisher scoring algorithm via simulation studies and compare performance of our method to homogeneous and piecewise homogeneous models. We apply our methodology to a study of delirium progression in a cohort of stem cell transplantation recipients and show that our method identifies temporal trends in delirium incidence and recovery.

  12. Reviving Markov processes and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, H.

    1988-01-01

    In this dissertation we study a procedure which restarts a Markov process when the process is killed by some arbitrary multiplicative functional. The regenerative nature of this revival procedure is characterized through a Markov renewal equation. An interesting duality between the revival procedure and the classical killing operation is found. Under the condition that the multiplicative functional possesses an intensity, the generators of the revival process can be written down explicitly. An intimate connection is also found between the perturbation of the sample path of a Markov process and the perturbation of a generator (in Kato's sense). The applications of the theory include the study of the processes like piecewise-deterministic Markov process, virtual waiting time process and the first entrance decomposition (taboo probability)

  13. Confluence reduction for Markov automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  14. Confluence Reduction for Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Braberman, Victor; Fribourg, Laurent

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  15. (D,T) Driven thorium hybrid blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Kusayer, T.A.; Khan, S.; Sahin, S.

    1983-01-01

    Recently, a project has started, with the aim to establish the neutronic performance and the basic design of an experimental fusionfission (hybrid) reactor facility, called AYMAN, in cylinderical geometry. The fusion reactor will have to be simulated by a (D,T) neutron generator. Fissile and fertile fuel will have to surround the neutron generator as a cylinderical blanket to simulate the boundary conditions of the hybrid blanket in a proper way. This geometry is consistent with Tandem Mirror Hybrid Blanket design and with most of the ICF blanket designs. A similar experimental installation will become operational around 1984 at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, Switzerland known under the project LOTUS. Due to the limited dimensions of the experimental cavity of the LOTUS-hybrid reactor, the LOTUS blankets have to be designed in plane geometry. Also, the bulky form of the Haefely neutron generator of the LOTUS facility obliges one to design a blanket in the plane geometry. This results in a vacuum left boundary conditions for the LOTUS blanket. The importance of a reflecting left boundary condition on the overall neutronic performance of a hybrid blanket has been analyzed in previous work in detail

  16. Design of ITER shielding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuya, Kazuyuki; Sato, Satoshi; Hatano, Toshihisa; Tokami, Ikuhide; Kitamura, Kazunori; Miura, Hidenori; Ito, Yutaka; Kuroda, Toshimasa; Takatsu, Hideyuki

    1997-05-01

    A mechanical configuration of ITER integrated primary first wall/shield blanket module were developed focusing on the welded attachment of its support leg to the back plate. A 100 mm x 150 mm space between the legs of adjacent modules was incorporated for the working space of welding/cutting tools. A concept of coolant branch pipe connection to accommodate deformation due to the leg welding and differential displacement of the module and the manifold/back plate during operation was introduced. Two-dimensional FEM analyses showed that thermal stresses in Cu-alloy (first wall) and stainless steel (first wall coolant tube and shield block) satisfied the stress criteria following ASME code for ITER BPP operation. On the other hand, three-dimensional FEM analyses for overall in-vessel structures exhibited excessive primary stresses in the back plate and its support structure to the vacuum vessel under VDE disruption load and marginal stresses in the support leg of module No.4. Fabrication procedure of the integrated primary first wall/shield blanket module was developed based on single step solid HIP for the joining of Cu-alloy/Cu-alloy, Cu-alloy/stainless steel, and stainless steel/stainless steel. (author)

  17. Representing Lumped Markov Chains by Minimal Polynomials over Field GF(q)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharov, V. M.; Shalagin, S. V.; Eminov, B. F.

    2018-05-01

    A method has been proposed to represent lumped Markov chains by minimal polynomials over a finite field. The accuracy of representing lumped stochastic matrices, the law of lumped Markov chains depends linearly on the minimum degree of polynomials over field GF(q). The method allows constructing the realizations of lumped Markov chains on linear shift registers with a pre-defined “linear complexity”.

  18. Blanket materials for DT fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1981-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the critical materials issues that must be considered in the development of a tritium breeding blanket for a tokamak fusion reactor that operates on the D-T-Li fuel cycle. The primary requirements of the blanket system are identified and the important criteria that must be considered in the development of blanket technology are summarized. The candidate materials are listed for the different blanket components, e.g., breeder, coolant, structure and neutron multiplier. Three blanket concepts that appear to offer the most potential are: (1) liquid-metal breeder/coolant, (2) liquid-metal breeder/separate coolant, and (3) solid breeder/separate coolant. The major uncertainties associated with each of the design concepts are discussed and the key materials R and D requirements for each concept are identified

  19. Preliminary Analysis for K-DEMO Water Cooled Breeding Blanket Using MARS-KS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jeong-Hun; Kim, Geon-Woo; Park, Goon-Cherl; Cho, Hyoung-Kyu; Im, Kihak

    2014-01-01

    the pressure drops in them and transfers the flow rates to each DLL file as inlet flow rate boundary conditions. The methodology was applied for the two blanket module simulation and its performance was successfully validated. The multiple blanket module analysis method will be extended to the entire system analysis following the present work

  20. Source-to-incident flux relation for a tokamak fusion test reactor blanket module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imel, G.R.

    1982-01-01

    The source-to-incident 14-MeV flux relation for a blanket module on the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor is derived. It is shown that assumptions can be made that allow an analytical expression to be derived, using point kernel methods. In addition, the effect of a nonuniform source distribution is derived, again by relatively simple point kernel methods. It is thought that the methodology developed is valid for a variety of blanket modules on tokamak reactors

  1. Conceptual design and neutronics analyses of a fusion reactor blanket simulation facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beller, D.E.; Ott, K.O.; Terry, W.K.

    1987-01-01

    A new conceptual design of a fusion reactor blanket simulation facility has been developed. This design follows the principles that have been successfully employed in the Purdue Fast Breeder Blanket Facility (FBBF), where experiments have resulted in the discovery of substantial deficiencies in neutronics predictions. With this design, discrepancies between calculation and experimental data can be nearly fully attributed to calculation methods because design deficiencies that could affect results are insignificant. The conceptual design of this FBBF analog, the Fusion Reactor Blanket Facility, is presented

  2. Development of thermal-hydraulic analysis methodology for multiple modules of water-cooled breeder blanket in fusion DEMO reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Geon-Woo; Lee, Jeong-Hun [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Hyoung-Kyu, E-mail: chohk@snu.ac.kr [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Park, Goon-Cherl [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Im, Kihak [National Fusion Research Institute, 169-148, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-806 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    Highlights: • A methodology to simulate the K-DEMO blanket system was proposed. • The results were compared with the CFD, to verify the prediction capability of MARS. • 46 Blankets in a single sector in K-DEMO were simulated using MARS-KS. • Supervisor program was devised to handle each blanket module individually. • The calculation results showed the flow rates, pressure drops, and temperatures. - Abstract: According to the conceptual design of the fusion DEMO reactor proposed by the National Fusion Research Institute of Korea, the water-cooled breeding blanket system incorporates a total of 736 blanket modules. The heat flux and neutron wall loading to each blanket module vary along their poloidal direction, and hence, thermal analysis for at least one blanket sector is required to confirm that the temperature limitations of the materials are satisfied in all the blanket modules. The present paper proposes a methodology of thermal analysis for multiple modules of the blanket system using a nuclear reactor thermal-hydraulic analysis code, MARS-KS. In order to overcome the limitations of the code, caused by the restriction on the number of computational nodes, a supervisor program was devised, which handles each blanket module separately at first, and then corrects the flow rate, considering pressure drops that occur in each module. For a feasibility test of the proposed methodology, 46 blankets in a single sector were simulated; the calculation results of the parameters, such as mass flow, pressure drops, and temperature distribution in the multiple blanket modules showed that the multi-module analysis method can be used for efficient thermal-hydraulic analysis of the fusion DEMO reactor.

  3. Switching Markov chains for a holistic modeling of SIS unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechri, Walid; Simon, Christophe; BenOthman, Kamel

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a holistic approach to model the Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS). The model is based on Switching Markov Chain and integrates several parameters like Common Cause Failure, Imperfect Proof testing, partial proof testing, etc. The basic concepts of Switching Markov Chain applied to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the unavailability for a case study is presented. The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows us to assess the effect of each parameter on the SIS performance. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. - Highlights: • A holistic approach to model the unavailability safety systems using Switching Markov chains. • The model integrates several parameters like probability of failure due to the test, the probability of not detecting a failure in a test. • The basic concepts of the Switching Markov Chains are introduced and applied to compute the unavailability for safety systems. • The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows assessing the effect of each parameter on the chemical reactor performance

  4. ARIES-IV Nested Shell Blanket Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, C.P.C.; Redler, K.; Reis, E.E.; Will, R.; Cheng, E.; Hasan, C.M.; Sharafat, S.

    1993-11-01

    The ARIES-IV Nested Shell Blanket (NSB) Design is an alternate blanket concept of the ARIES-IV low activation helium-cooled reactor design. The reference design has the coolant routed in the poloidal direction and the inlet and outlet plena are located at the top and bottom of the torus. The NSB design has the high velocity coolant routed in the toroidal direction and the plena are located behind the blanket. This is of significance since the selected structural material is SiC-composite. The NSB is designed to have key high performance components with characteristic dimensions of no larger than 2 m. These components can be brazed to form the blanket module. For the diverter design, we eliminated the use of W as the divertor coating material by relying on the successful development of the gaseous divertor concept. The neutronics and thermal-hydraulic performance of both blanket concepts are similar. The selected blanket and divertor configurations can also meet all the projected structural, neutronics and thermal-hydraulics design limits and requirements. With the selected blanket and divertor materials, the design has a level of safety assurance rate of I (LSA-1), which indicates an inherently safe design

  5. On blanket concepts of the Helias reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wobig, H.; Harmeyer, E.; Herrnegger, F.; Kisslinger, J.

    1999-07-01

    The paper discusses various options for a blanket of the Helias reactor HSR22. The Helias reactor is an upgrade version of the Wendelstein 7-X device. The dimensions of the Helias reactor are: major radius 22 m, average plasma radius 1.8 m, magnetic field on axis 4.75 T, maximum field 10 T, number of field periods 5, fusion power 3000 MW. The minimum distance between plasma and coils is 1.5 m, leaving sufficient space for a blanket and shield. Three options of a breeding blanket are discussed taking into account the specific properties of the Helias configuration. Due to the large area of the first wall (2600 m 2 ) the average neutron power load on the first wall is below 1 MWm .2 , which has a strong impact on the blanket performance with respect to lifetime and cooling requirements. A comparison with a tokamak reactor shows that the lifetime of first wall components and blanket components in the Helias reactor is expected to be at least two times longer. The blanket concepts being discussed in the following are: the solid breeder concept (HCPB), the dual-coolant Pb-17Li blanket concept and the water-cooled Pb-17Li concept (WCLL). (orig.)

  6. Tritium transport analysis for CFETR WCSB blanket

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Pinghui, E-mail: phzhao@mail.ustc.edu.cn; Yang, Wanli; Li, Yuanjie; Ge, Zhihao; Nie, Xingchen; Gao, Zhongping

    2017-01-15

    Highlights: • A simplified tritium transport model for CFETR WCSB blanket was developed. • Tritium transport process in CFETR WCSB blanket was analyzed. • Sensitivity analyses of tritium transport parameters were carried out. - Abstract: Water Cooled Solid Breeder (WCSB) blanket was put forward as one of the breeding blanket candidate schemes for Chinese Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). In this study, a simplified tritium transport model was developed. Based on the conceptual engineering design, neutronics and thermal-hydraulic analyses of CFETR WCSB blanket, tritium transport process was analyzed. The results show that high tritium concentration and inventory exist in primary water loop and total tritium losses exceed CFETR limits under current conditions. Conducted were sensitivity analyses of influential parameters, including tritium source, temperature, flow-rate capacity and surface condition. Tritium performance of WCSB blanket can be significantly improved under a smaller tritium impinging rate, a larger flow-rate capacity or a better surface condition. This work provides valuable reference for the enhancement of tritium transport behavior in CFETR WCSB blanket.

  7. ADVANCED HIGH PERFORMANCE SOLID WALL BLANKET CONCEPTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WONG, CPC; MALANG, S; NISHIO, S; RAFFRAY, R; SAGARA, S

    2002-01-01

    OAK A271 ADVANCED HIGH PERFORMANCE SOLID WALL BLANKET CONCEPTS. First wall and blanket (FW/blanket) design is a crucial element in the performance and acceptance of a fusion power plant. High temperature structural and breeding materials are needed for high thermal performance. A suitable combination of structural design with the selected materials is necessary for D-T fuel sufficiency. Whenever possible, low afterheat, low chemical reactivity and low activation materials are desired to achieve passive safety and minimize the amount of high-level waste. Of course the selected fusion FW/blanket design will have to match the operational scenarios of high performance plasma. The key characteristics of eight advanced high performance FW/blanket concepts are presented in this paper. Design configurations, performance characteristics, unique advantages and issues are summarized. All reviewed designs can satisfy most of the necessary design goals. For further development, in concert with the advancement in plasma control and scrape off layer physics, additional emphasis will be needed in the areas of first wall coating material selection, design of plasma stabilization coils, consideration of reactor startup and transient events. To validate the projected performance of the advanced FW/blanket concepts the critical element is the need for 14 MeV neutron irradiation facilities for the generation of necessary engineering design data and the prediction of FW/blanket components lifetime and availability

  8. Decoding and modelling of time series count data using Poisson hidden Markov model and Markov ordinal logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Tunny; Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Anandan, Shalini; George, Sebastian; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I

    2018-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are stochastic models in which the observations are assumed to follow a mixture distribution, but the parameters of the components are governed by a Markov chain which is unobservable. The issues related to the estimation of Poisson-hidden Markov models in which the observations are coming from mixture of Poisson distributions and the parameters of the component Poisson distributions are governed by an m-state Markov chain with an unknown transition probability matrix are explained here. These methods were applied to the data on Vibrio cholerae counts reported every month for 11-year span at Christian Medical College, Vellore, India. Using Viterbi algorithm, the best estimate of the state sequence was obtained and hence the transition probability matrix. The mean passage time between the states were estimated. The 95% confidence interval for the mean passage time was estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. The three hidden states of the estimated Markov chain are labelled as 'Low', 'Moderate' and 'High' with the mean counts of 1.4, 6.6 and 20.2 and the estimated average duration of stay of 3, 3 and 4 months, respectively. Environmental risk factors were studied using Markov ordinal logistic regression analysis. No significant association was found between disease severity levels and climate components.

  9. Detecting Faults By Use Of Hidden Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Padhraic J.

    1995-01-01

    Frequency of false alarms reduced. Faults in complicated dynamic system (e.g., antenna-aiming system, telecommunication network, or human heart) detected automatically by method of automated, continuous monitoring. Obtains time-series data by sampling multiple sensor outputs at discrete intervals of t and processes data via algorithm determining whether system in normal or faulty state. Algorithm implements, among other things, hidden first-order temporal Markov model of states of system. Mathematical model of dynamics of system not needed. Present method is "prior" method mentioned in "Improved Hidden-Markov-Model Method of Detecting Faults" (NPO-18982).

  10. BMRF-Net: a software tool for identification of protein interaction subnetworks by a bagging Markov random field-based method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xu; Barnes, Robert O; Chen, Li; Shajahan-Haq, Ayesha N; Hilakivi-Clarke, Leena; Clarke, Robert; Wang, Yue; Xuan, Jianhua

    2015-07-15

    Identification of protein interaction subnetworks is an important step to help us understand complex molecular mechanisms in cancer. In this paper, we develop a BMRF-Net package, implemented in Java and C++, to identify protein interaction subnetworks based on a bagging Markov random field (BMRF) framework. By integrating gene expression data and protein-protein interaction data, this software tool can be used to identify biologically meaningful subnetworks. A user friendly graphic user interface is developed as a Cytoscape plugin for the BMRF-Net software to deal with the input/output interface. The detailed structure of the identified networks can be visualized in Cytoscape conveniently. The BMRF-Net package has been applied to breast cancer data to identify significant subnetworks related to breast cancer recurrence. The BMRF-Net package is available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/bmrfcjava/. The package is tested under Ubuntu 12.04 (64-bit), Java 7, glibc 2.15 and Cytoscape 3.1.0. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Beryllium R and D for blanket application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalle Donne, M.; Scaffidi-Argentina, F. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH Technik und Umwelt (Germany). Inst. fuer Neutronenphysik und Reaktortechnik; Longhurst, G.R. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls (United States); Kawamura, H. [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Research Establishment

    1998-10-01

    The paper describes the main problems and the R and D for the beryllium to be used as neutron multiplier in blankets. As the four ITER partners propose to use beryllium in the form of pebbles for their DEMO relevant blankets (only the Russians consider the porous beryllium option as an alternative) and the ITER breeding blanket will use beryllium pebbles as well, the paper is mainly based on beryllium pebbles. Also the work on the chemical reactivity of fully dense and porous beryllium in contact with water steam is described, due to the safety importance of this point. (orig.) 29 refs.

  12. Beryllium R and D for blanket application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalle Donne, M.; Scaffidi-Argentina, F.; Kawamura, H.

    1998-01-01

    The paper describes the main problems and the R and D for the beryllium to be used as neutron multiplier in blankets. As the four ITER partners propose to use beryllium in the form of pebbles for their DEMO relevant blankets (only the Russians consider the porous beryllium option as an alternative) and the ITER breeding blanket will use beryllium pebbles as well, the paper is mainly based on beryllium pebbles. Also the work on the chemical reactivity of fully dense and porous beryllium in contact with water steam is described, due to the safety importance of this point. (orig.)

  13. Beryllium R&D for blanket application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donne, M. Dalle; Longhurst, G. R.; Kawamura, H.; Scaffidi-Argentina, F.

    1998-10-01

    The paper describes the main problems and the R&D for the beryllium to be used as neutron multiplier in blankets. As the four ITER partners propose to use beryllium in the form of pebbles for their DEMO relevant blankets (only the Russians consider the porous beryllium option as an alternative) and the ITER breeding blanket will use beryllium pebbles as well, the paper is mainly based on beryllium pebbles. Also the work on the chemical reactivity of fully dense and porous beryllium in contact with water steam is described, due to the safety importance of this point.

  14. Mechanical and thermal design of hybrid blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, K.R.

    1978-01-01

    The thermal and mechanical aspects of hybrid reactor blanket design considerations are discussed. This paper is intended as a companion to that of J. D. Lee of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory on the nuclear aspects of hybrid reactor blanket design. The major design characteristics of hybrid reactor blankets are discussed with emphasis on the areas of difference between hybrid reactors and standard fusion or fission reactors. Specific examples are used to illustrate the design tradeoffs and choices that must be made in hybrid reactor design. These examples are drawn from the work on the Mirror Hybrid Reactor

  15. Benchmark calculations for fusion blanket development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawan, M.E.; Cheng, E.T.

    1985-01-01

    Benchmark problems representing the leading fusion blanket concepts are presented. Benchmark calculations for self-cooled Li/sub 17/Pb/sub 83/ and helium-cooled blankets were performed. Multigroup data libraries generated from ENDF/B-IV and V files using the NJOY and AMPX processing codes with different weighting functions were used. The sensitivity of the TBR to group structure and weighting spectrum increases and Li enrichment decrease with up to 20% discrepancies for thin natural Li/sub 17/Pb/sub 83/ blankets

  16. Benchmark calculations for fusion blanket development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawan, M.L.; Cheng, E.T.

    1986-01-01

    Benchmark problems representing the leading fusion blanket concepts are presented. Benchmark calculations for self-cooled Li 17 Pb 83 and helium-cooled blankets were performed. Multigroup data libraries generated from ENDF/B-IV and V files using the NJOY and AMPX processing codes with different weighting functions were used. The sensitivity of the tritium breeding ratio to group structure and weighting spectrum increases as the thickness and Li enrichment decrease with up to 20% discrepancies for thin natural Li 17 Pb 83 blankets. (author)

  17. Environmental considerations for alternative fusion reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, A.B. Jr.; Young, J.R.

    1975-01-01

    Comparisons of alternative fusion reactor blanket/coolant systems suggest that environmental considerations will enter strongly into selection of design and materials. Liquid blankets and coolants tend to maximize transport of radioactive corrosion products. Liquid lithium interacts strongly with tritium, minimizing permeation and escape of gaseous tritium in accidents. However, liquid lithium coolants tend to create large tritium inventories and have a large fire potential compared to flibe and solid blankets. Helium coolants minimize radiation transport, but do not have ability to bind the tritium in case of accidental releases. (auth)

  18. Maximizing Entropy over Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2013-01-01

    The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of an system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code....

  19. Maximizing entropy over Markov processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Fabrizio; Legay, Axel; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2014-01-01

    The channel capacity of a deterministic system with confidential data is an upper bound on the amount of bits of data an attacker can learn from the system. We encode all possible attacks to a system using a probabilistic specification, an Interval Markov Chain. Then the channel capacity...... as a reward function, a polynomial algorithm to verify the existence of a system maximizing entropy among those respecting a specification, a procedure for the maximization of reward functions over Interval Markov Chains and its application to synthesize an implementation maximizing entropy. We show how...... to use Interval Markov Chains to model abstractions of deterministic systems with confidential data, and use the above results to compute their channel capacity. These results are a foundation for ongoing work on computing channel capacity for abstractions of programs derived from code. © 2014 Elsevier...

  20. Pruning Boltzmann networks and hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten With; Stork, D.

    1996-01-01

    We present sensitivity-based pruning algorithms for general Boltzmann networks. Central to our methods is the efficient calculation of a second-order approximation to the true weight saliencies in a cross-entropy error. Building upon previous work which shows a formal correspondence between linear...... Boltzmann chains and hidden Markov models (HMMs), we argue that our method can be applied to HMMs as well. We illustrate pruning on Boltzmann zippers, which are equivalent to two HMMs with cross-connection links. We verify that our second-order approximation preserves the rank ordering of weight saliencies...

  1. Markov Models for Handwriting Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Plotz, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Since their first inception, automatic reading systems have evolved substantially, yet the recognition of handwriting remains an open research problem due to its substantial variation in appearance. With the introduction of Markovian models to the field, a promising modeling and recognition paradigm was established for automatic handwriting recognition. However, no standard procedures for building Markov model-based recognizers have yet been established. This text provides a comprehensive overview of the application of Markov models in the field of handwriting recognition, covering both hidden

  2. Review: BNL Tokamak graphite blanket design concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fillo, J.A.; Powell, J.R.

    1976-01-01

    The BNL minimum activity graphite blanket designs are reviewed, and three are discussed in the context of an experimental power reactor (EPR) and commercial power reactor. Basically, the three designs employ a 30 cm or thicker graphite screen. Bremsstrahlung energy is deposited on the graphite surface and re-radiated away as thermal radiation. Fast neutrons are slowed down in the graphite, depositing most of their energy, which is then radiated to a secondary blanket with coolant tubes, as in types A and B, or removed by intermittent direct gas cooling (type C). In types A and B, radiation damage to the coolant tubes in the secondary blanket is reduced by one or two orders of magnitude, while in type C, the blanket is only cooled when the reactor is shut down, so that coolant cannot quench the plasma. (Auth.)

  3. Blanket design for imploding liner systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaffer, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    The blanket design comprises hot, molten, rotating liquid vortex systems suitable for rapidly compressing confined plasmas, in which stratified immiscible liquid layers having successively greater mass densities outwardly of the axis of rotation are provided

  4. Stress analysis of the tokamak engineering test breeder blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Zhongqi

    1992-01-01

    The design features of the hybrid reactor blanket and main parameters are presented. The stress analysis is performed by using computer codes SAP5p and SAP6 with the three kinds of blanket module loadings, i.e, the pressure of coolant, the blanket weight and the thermal loading. Numerical calculation results indicate that the stresses of the blanket are smaller than the allowable ones of the material, the blanket design is therefore reasonable

  5. Fast Breeder Blanket Facility FBBF. Annual report, January 1, 1981-December 31, 1981

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clikeman, F.M.

    1982-07-01

    This annual report contains a summmary of fission rate, spectra, and gamma-ray heating rate measurements made in the first blanket of the Purdue Fast Breeder Blanket Facility. The first blanket consisted of aluminum clad, natural UO 2 fuel rods with a secondary cladding of stainless steel or aluminum. The blanket was arranged in two concentric regions around the neutron source and converter regions. A neutron diffusion code, 2DB, and a Monte Carlo code, VIM, both using homogeneous cross section groups have been used to calculate the reaction rates. Calculated to experimental values for a number of important reactions are presented. A modified method of applying Bondarenko self-shielding factors to correct for the self shielding of resonance energy neutrons in aluminum, stainless steel and UO 2 has improved the agreement between the calculations and experiment, but does not account for all of the differences

  6. Probabilistic safety assessment of the dual-cooled waste transmutation blanket for the FDS-I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, L.; Wu, Y.

    2006-01-01

    The subcritical dual-cooled waste transmutation (DWT) blanket is one of the key components of fusion-driven subcritical system (FDS-I). The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) can provide valuable information on safety characteristics of FDS-I to give recommendations for the optimization of the blanket concepts and the improvement of the design. Event tree method has been adopted to probabilistically analyze the safety of the DWT blanket for FDS-I using the home-developed PSA code RiskA. The blanket melting frequency has been calculated and compared with the core melting frequencies of PWRs and a fast reactor. Sensitivity analysis of the safety systems has been performed. The results show that the current preliminary design of the FDS-I is very attractive in safety

  7. An Analysis of Ripple and Error Fields Induced by a Blanket in the CFETR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Guanying; Liu, Xufeng; Liu, Songlin

    2016-10-01

    The Chinese Fusion Engineering Tokamak Reactor (CFETR) is an important intermediate device between ITER and DEMO. The Water Cooled Ceramic Breeder (WCCB) blanket whose structural material is mainly made of Reduced Activation Ferritic/Martensitic (RAFM) steel, is one of the candidate conceptual blanket design. An analysis of ripple and error field induced by RAFM steel in WCCB is evaluated with the method of static magnetic analysis in the ANSYS code. Significant additional magnetic field is produced by blanket and it leads to an increased ripple field. Maximum ripple along the separatrix line reaches 0.53% which is higher than 0.5% of the acceptable design value. Simultaneously, one blanket module is taken out for heating purpose and the resulting error field is calculated to be seriously against the requirement. supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11175207) and the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Program of China (No. 2013GB108004)

  8. Prediction of inspection intervals using the Markov analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rea, R.; Arellano, J.

    2005-01-01

    To solve the unmanageable number of states of Markov of systems that have a great number of components, it is intends a modification to the method of Markov, denominated Markov truncated analysis, in which is assumed that it is worthless the dependence among faults of components. With it the number of states is increased in a lineal way (not exponential) with the number of components of the system, simplifying the analysis vastly. As example, the proposed method was applied to the system HPCS of the CLV considering its 18 main components. It thinks about that each component can take three states: operational, with hidden fault and with revealed fault. Additionally, it takes into account the configuration of the system HPCS by means of a block diagram of dependability to estimate their unavailability at level system. The results of the model here proposed are compared with other methods and approaches used to simplify the Markov analysis. It also intends the modification of the intervals of inspection of three components of the system HPCS. This finishes with base in the developed Markov model and in the maximum time allowed by the code ASME (NUREG-1482) to inspect components of systems that are in reservation in nuclear power plants. (Author)

  9. The fusion blanket program at Chalk River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hastings, I.J.

    1986-03-01

    Work on the Fusion Blanket Program commenced at Chalk River in 1984 June. Co-funded by Canadian Fusion Fuels Technology Project and Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, the Program utilizes Chalk River expertise in instrumented irradiation testing, ceramics, tritium technology, materials testing and compound chemistry. This paper gives highlights of studies to date on lithium-based ceramics, leading contenders for the fusion blanket

  10. An Application of Graph Theory in Markov Chains Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Skalny

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents reliability analysis which was realized for an industrial company. The aim of the paper is to present the usage of discrete time Markov chains and the flow in network approach. Discrete Markov chains a well-known method of stochastic modelling describes the issue. The method is suitable for many systems occurring in practice where we can easily distinguish various amount of states. Markov chains are used to describe transitions between the states of the process. The industrial process is described as a graph network. The maximal flow in the network corresponds to the production. The Ford-Fulkerson algorithm is used to quantify the production for each state. The combination of both methods are utilized to quantify the expected value of the amount of manufactured products for the given time period.

  11. Advanced high performance solid wall blanket concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, C.P.C.; Malang, S.; Nishio, S.; Raffray, R.; Sagara, A.

    2002-01-01

    First wall and blanket (FW/blanket) design is a crucial element in the performance and acceptance of a fusion power plant. High temperature structural and breeding materials are needed for high thermal performance. A suitable combination of structural design with the selected materials is necessary for D-T fuel sufficiency. Whenever possible, low afterheat, low chemical reactivity and low activation materials are desired to achieve passive safety and minimize the amount of high-level waste. Of course the selected fusion FW/blanket design will have to match the operational scenarios of high performance plasma. The key characteristics of eight advanced high performance FW/blanket concepts are presented in this paper. Design configurations, performance characteristics, unique advantages and issues are summarized. All reviewed designs can satisfy most of the necessary design goals. For further development, in concert with the advancement in plasma control and scrape off layer physics, additional emphasis will be needed in the areas of first wall coating material selection, design of plasma stabilization coils, consideration of reactor startup and transient events. To validate the projected performance of the advanced FW/blanket concepts the critical element is the need for 14 MeV neutron irradiation facilities for the generation of necessary engineering design data and the prediction of FW/blanket components lifetime and availability

  12. Workshop on cold-blanket research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-05-01

    The objective of the workshop was to identify and discuss cold-plasma blanket systems. In order to minimize the bombardment of the walls by hot neutrals the plasma should be impermeable. This requires a density edge-thickness product of nΔ > 10 15 cm -2 . An impermeable cold plasma-gas blanket surrounding a hot plasma core reduces the plasma wall/limiter interaction. Accumulation of impurities in this blanket can be expected. Fuelling from a blanket may be possible as shown by experimental results, though not fully explained by classical transport of neutrals. Refuelling of a reacting plasma had to be ensured by inward diffusion. Experimental studies of a cold impermeable plasma have been done on the tokamak-like Ringboog device. Simulation calculations for the next generation of large tokamaks using a particular transport model, indicate that the plasma edge profile can be controlled to reduce the production of sputtered impurities to an acceptable level. Impurity control requires a small fraction of the radial space to accomodate the cold-plasma layer. The problem of exhaust is, however, more complicated. If the cold-blanket scheme works as predicted in the model calculations, then α-particles generated by fusion will be transported to the cold outside layer. The Communities' experimental programme of research has been discussed in terms of the tokamaks which are available and planned. Two options present themselves for the continuation of cold-blanket research

  13. Consistency and refinement for Interval Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delahaye, Benoit; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2012-01-01

    Interval Markov Chains (IMC), or Markov Chains with probability intervals in the transition matrix, are the base of a classic specification theory for probabilistic systems [18]. The standard semantics of IMCs assigns to a specification the set of all Markov Chains that satisfy its interval...

  14. A Markov reward model checker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.; Maneesh Khattri, M.; Zapreev, I.S.; Zapreev, I.S.

    2005-01-01

    This short tool paper introduces MRMC, a model checker for discrete-time and continuous-time Markov reward models. It supports reward extensions of PCTL and CSL, and allows for the automated verification of properties concerning long-run and instantaneous rewards as well as cumulative rewards. In

  15. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  16. Markov Decision Processes in Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Dijk, N.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is over 30 years ago since D.J. White started his series of surveys on practical applications of Markov decision processes (MDP), over 20 years after the phenomenal book by Martin Puterman on the theory of MDP, and over 10 years since Eugene A. Feinberg and Adam Shwartz published their Handbook

  17. Prediction of inspection intervals using the Markov analysis; Prediccion de intervalos de inspeccion utilizando analisis de Markov

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rea, R.; Arellano, J. [IIE, Calle Reforma 113, Col. Palmira, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)]. e-mail: rrea@iie.org.mx

    2005-07-01

    To solve the unmanageable number of states of Markov of systems that have a great number of components, it is intends a modification to the method of Markov, denominated Markov truncated analysis, in which is assumed that it is worthless the dependence among faults of components. With it the number of states is increased in a lineal way (not exponential) with the number of components of the system, simplifying the analysis vastly. As example, the proposed method was applied to the system HPCS of the CLV considering its 18 main components. It thinks about that each component can take three states: operational, with hidden fault and with revealed fault. Additionally, it takes into account the configuration of the system HPCS by means of a block diagram of dependability to estimate their unavailability at level system. The results of the model here proposed are compared with other methods and approaches used to simplify the Markov analysis. It also intends the modification of the intervals of inspection of three components of the system HPCS. This finishes with base in the developed Markov model and in the maximum time allowed by the code ASME (NUREG-1482) to inspect components of systems that are in reservation in nuclear power plants. (Author)

  18. Liquid lithium blanket processing studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talbot, J.B.; Clinton, S.D.

    1979-01-01

    The sorption of tritium on yttrium from flowing molten lithium and the subsequent release of tritium from yttrium for regeneration of the metal sorbent were investigated to evaluate the feasibility of such a tritium-recovery process for a fusion reactor blanket of liquid lithium. In initial experiments with the forced convection loop, yttrium samples were contacted with lithium at 300 0 C. A mass transfer coefficient of 2.5 x 10 - cm/sec, which is more than an order of magnitude less than the value measured in earlier static experiments, was determined for the flowing lithium system. Rates of tritium release from yttrium samples were measured to evaluate possible thermal regeneration of the sorbent. Values for diffusion coefficients at 505, 800, and 900 0 C were estimated to be 1.1 x 10 -13 , 4.9 x 10 -12 , and 9.3 x 10 -10 cm 2 /sec, respectively. Tritium release from yttrium was investigated at higher temperatures and with hydrogen added to the argon sweep gas to provide a reducing atmosphere

  19. Mirror hybrid reactor blanket and power conversion system conceptual design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, K.R.; Backus, G.A.; Baxi, C.B.; Dee, J.B.; Estrine, E.A.; Rao, R.; Veca, A.R.

    1976-01-01

    The conceptual design of the blanket and power conversion system for a gas-cooled mirror hybrid fusion-fission reactor is presented. The designs of the fuel, blanket module and power conversion system are based on existing gas-cooled fission reactor technology that has been developed at General Atomic Company. The uranium silicide fuel is contained in Inconel-clad rods and is cooled by helium gas. The fuel is contained in 16 spherical segment modules which surround the fusion plasma. The hot helium is used to raise steam for a conventional steam cycle turbine generator. The details of the method of support for the massive blanket modules and helium ducts remain to be determined. Nevertheless, the conceptual design appears to be technically feasible with existing gas-cooled technology. A preliminary safety analysis shows that with the development of a satisfactory method of primary coolant circuit containment and support, the hybrid reactor could be licensed under existing Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations

  20. Automated generation of partial Markov chain from high level descriptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brameret, P.-A.; Rauzy, A.; Roussel, J.-M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose an algorithm to generate partial Markov chains from high level implicit descriptions, namely AltaRica models. This algorithm relies on two components. First, a variation on Dijkstra's algorithm to compute shortest paths in a graph. Second, the definition of a notion of distance to select which states must be kept and which can be safely discarded. The proposed method solves two problems at once. First, it avoids a manual construction of Markov chains, which is both tedious and error prone. Second, up the price of acceptable approximations, it makes it possible to push back dramatically the exponential blow-up of the size of the resulting chains. We report experimental results that show the efficiency of the proposed approach. - Highlights: • We generate Markov chains from a higher level safety modeling language (AltaRica). • We use a variation on Dijkstra's algorithm to generate partial Markov chains. • Hence we solve two problems: the first problem is the tedious manual construction of Markov chains. • The second problem is the blow-up of the size of the chains, at the cost of decent approximations. • The experimental results highlight the efficiency of the method

  1. Dynamic modeling of presence of occupants using inhomogeneous Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Iversen, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    on time of day, and by use of a filter of the observations it is able to capture per-employee sequence dynamics. Simulations using this method are compared with simulations using homogeneous Markov chains and show far better ability to reproduce key properties of the data. The method is based...... on inhomogeneous Markov chains with where the transition probabilities are estimated using generalized linear models with polynomials, B-splines, and a filter of passed observations as inputs. For treating the dispersion of the data series, a hierarchical model structure is used where one model is for low presence...

  2. Markov chain solution of photon multiple scattering through turbid slabs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ying; Northrop, William F; Li, Xuesong

    2016-11-14

    This work introduces a Markov Chain solution to model photon multiple scattering through turbid slabs via anisotropic scattering process, i.e., Mie scattering. Results show that the proposed Markov Chain model agree with commonly used Monte Carlo simulation for various mediums such as medium with non-uniform phase functions and absorbing medium. The proposed Markov Chain solution method successfully converts the complex multiple scattering problem with practical phase functions into a matrix form and solves transmitted/reflected photon angular distributions by matrix multiplications. Such characteristics would potentially allow practical inversions by matrix manipulation or stochastic algorithms where widely applied stochastic methods such as Monte Carlo simulations usually fail, and thus enable practical diagnostics reconstructions such as medical diagnosis, spray analysis, and atmosphere sciences.

  3. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  4. failure analysis of a uav flight control system using markov analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    2016-01-01

    Jan 1, 2016 ... Tree Analysis (FTA), Dependence Diagram Analysis. (DDA) and Markov Analysis (MA) are the most widely-used methods of probabilistic safety and reliability analysis for airborne system [1]. Fault trees analysis is a backward failure searching ..... [4] Christopher Dabrowski and Fern Hunt Markov Chain.

  5. Test Blanket Working Group's recent activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetter, J.E.

    2001-01-01

    The ITER Test Blanket Working Group (TBWG) has continued its activities during the period of extension of the EDA with a revised charter on the co-ordination of the development work performed by the Parties and by the JCT leading to a co-ordinated test programme on ITER for a DEMO-relevant tritium breeding blanket. This follows earlier work carried out until July 1998, which formed part of the ITER Final Design Report (FDR), completed in 1998. Whilst the machine parameters for ITER-FEAT have been significantly revised compared to the FDR, testing of breeding blanket modules remains a main objective of the test programme and the development of a reactor-relevant breeding blanket to ensure tritium fuel self-sufficiency is recognized a key issue for fusion. Design work and R and D on breeding blanket concepts, including co-operation with the other Contacting Parties of the ITER-EDA for testing these concepts in ITER, are included in the work plans of the Parties

  6. Markov chains and mixing times

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, David A

    2017-01-01

    Markov Chains and Mixing Times is a magical book, managing to be both friendly and deep. It gently introduces probabilistic techniques so that an outsider can follow. At the same time, it is the first book covering the geometric theory of Markov chains and has much that will be new to experts. It is certainly THE book that I will use to teach from. I recommend it to all comers, an amazing achievement. -Persi Diaconis, Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics, Stanford University Mixing times are an active research topic within many fields from statistical physics to the theory of algorithms, as well as having intrinsic interest within mathematical probability and exploiting discrete analogs of important geometry concepts. The first edition became an instant classic, being accessible to advanced undergraduates and yet bringing readers close to current research frontiers. This second edition adds chapters on monotone chains, the exclusion process and hitting time parameters. Having both exercises...

  7. Honest Importance Sampling with Multiple Markov Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Aixin; Doss, Hani; Hobert, James P

    2015-01-01

    Importance sampling is a classical Monte Carlo technique in which a random sample from one probability density, π 1 , is used to estimate an expectation with respect to another, π . The importance sampling estimator is strongly consistent and, as long as two simple moment conditions are satisfied, it obeys a central limit theorem (CLT). Moreover, there is a simple consistent estimator for the asymptotic variance in the CLT, which makes for routine computation of standard errors. Importance sampling can also be used in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) context. Indeed, if the random sample from π 1 is replaced by a Harris ergodic Markov chain with invariant density π 1 , then the resulting estimator remains strongly consistent. There is a price to be paid however, as the computation of standard errors becomes more complicated. First, the two simple moment conditions that guarantee a CLT in the iid case are not enough in the MCMC context. Second, even when a CLT does hold, the asymptotic variance has a complex form and is difficult to estimate consistently. In this paper, we explain how to use regenerative simulation to overcome these problems. Actually, we consider a more general set up, where we assume that Markov chain samples from several probability densities, π 1 , …, π k , are available. We construct multiple-chain importance sampling estimators for which we obtain a CLT based on regeneration. We show that if the Markov chains converge to their respective target distributions at a geometric rate, then under moment conditions similar to those required in the iid case, the MCMC-based importance sampling estimator obeys a CLT. Furthermore, because the CLT is based on a regenerative process, there is a simple consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. We illustrate the method with two applications in Bayesian sensitivity analysis. The first concerns one-way random effects models under different priors. The second involves Bayesian variable

  8. ANALYSING ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING PLANS BY MARKOV CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mirabi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this research, a Markov analysis of acceptance sampling plans in a single stage and in two stages is proposed, based on the quality of the items inspected. In a stage of this policy, if the number of defective items in a sample of inspected items is more than the upper threshold, the batch is rejected. However, the batch is accepted if the number of defective items is less than the lower threshold. Nonetheless, when the number of defective items falls between the upper and lower thresholds, the decision-making process continues to inspect the items and collect further samples. The primary objective is to determine the optimal values of the upper and lower thresholds using a Markov process to minimise the total cost associated with a batch acceptance policy. A solution method is presented, along with a numerical demonstration of the application of the proposed methodology.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie navorsing word ’n Markov-ontleding gedoen van aannamemonsternemingsplanne wat plaasvind in ’n enkele stap of in twee stappe na gelang van die kwaliteit van die items wat geïnspekteer word. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items ’n boonste grens oorskry, word die lot afgekeur. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items minder is as ’n onderste grens, word die lot aanvaar. Indien die eerste monster toon dat die aantal defektiewe items in die gebied tussen die boonste en onderste grense lê, word die besluitnemingsproses voortgesit en verdere monsters word geneem. Die primêre doel is om die optimale waardes van die booonste en onderste grense te bepaal deur gebruik te maak van ’n Markov-proses sodat die totale koste verbonde aan die proses geminimiseer kan word. ’n Oplossing word daarna voorgehou tesame met ’n numeriese voorbeeld van die toepassing van die voorgestelde oplossing.

  9. Markov processes characterization and convergence

    CERN Document Server

    Ethier, Stewart N

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."[A]nyone who works with Markov processes whose state space is uncountably infinite will need this most impressive book as a guide and reference."-American Scientist"There is no question but that space should immediately be reserved for [this] book on the library shelf. Those who aspire to mastery of the contents should also reserve a large number of long winter evenings."-Zentralblatt f?r Mathematik und ihre Grenzgebiete/Mathematics Abstracts"Ethier and Kurtz have produced an excellent treatment of the modern theory of Markov processes that [is] useful both as a reference work and as a graduate textbook."-Journal of Statistical PhysicsMarkov Proce...

  10. First Wall, Blanket, Shield Engineering Technology Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nygren, R.E.

    1982-01-01

    The First Wall/Blanket/Shield Engineering Technology Program sponsored by the Office of Fusion Energy of DOE has the overall objective of providing engineering data that will define performance parameters for nuclear systems in advanced fusion reactors. The program comprises testing and the development of computational tools in four areas: (1) thermomechanical and thermal-hydraulic performance of first-wall component facsimiles with emphasis on surface heat loads; (2) thermomechanical and thermal-hydraulic performance of blanket and shield component facsimiles with emphasis on bulk heating; (3) electromagnetic effects in first wall, blanket, and shield component facsimiles with emphasis on transient field penetration and eddy-current effects; (4) assembly, maintenance and repair with emphasis on remote-handling techniques. This paper will focus on elements 2 and 4 above and, in keeping with the conference participation from both fusion and fission programs, will emphasize potential interfaces between fusion technology and experience in the fission industry

  11. European DEMO BOT solid breeder blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalle Donne, M.

    1994-11-01

    The BOT (Breeder Outside Tube) Solid Breeder Blanket for a fusion DEMO reactor is presented. This is one of the four blanket concepts under development in the frame of the European fusion technology program with the aim to select in 1995 the two most promising ones for further development. In the paper the reference blanket design and external loops are described as well as the results of the theoretical and experimental work in the fields of neutronics, thermohydraulics, mechanical stresses, tritium control and extraction, development and irradiation of the ceramic breeder material, beryllium development, ferromagnetic forces caused by disruptions, safety and reliability. An outlook is given on the remaining open questions and on the required R and D program. (orig.) [de

  12. Fusion breeder sphere - PAC blanket design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, J.D.; Palmer, B.J.F.

    1987-11-01

    There is a considerable world-wide effort directed toward the production of materials for fusion reactors. Many ceramic fabrication groups are working on making lithium ceramics in a variety of forms, to be incorporated into the tritium breeding blanket which will surround the fusion reactor. Current blanket designs include ceramic in either monolithic or packed sphere bed (sphere-pac) forms. The major thrust at AECL is the production of lithium aluminate spheres to be incorporated in a sphere-pac bed. Contemporary studies on breeder blanket design offer little insight into the requirements on the sizes of the spheres. This study examined the parameters which determine the properties of pressure drop and coolant requirements. It was determined that an optimised sphere-pac bed would be composed of two diameters of spheres: 75 weight % at 3 mm and 25 weight % at 0.3 mm

  13. The requirements for processing tritium recovered from liquid lithium blankets: The blanket interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clemmer, R.G.; Finn, P.A.; Greenwood, L.R.; Grimm, T.L.; Sze, D.K.; Bartlit, J.R.; Anderson, J.L.; Yoshida, H.; Naruse.

    1988-03-01

    We have initiated a study to define a blanket processing mockup for Tritium Systems Test Assembly. Initial evaluation of the requirements of the blanket processing system have been started. The first step of the work is to define the condition of the gaseous tritium stream from the blanket tritium recovery system. This report summarizes this part of the work for one particular blanket concept, i.e., a self-cooled lithium blanket. The total gas throughput, the hydrogen to tritium ratio, the corrosive chemicals, and the radionuclides are defined. The key discoveries are: the throughput of the blanket gas stream (including the helium carrier gas) is about two orders of magnitude higher than the plasma exhaust stream;the protium to tritium ratio is about 1, the deuterium to tritium ratio is about 0.003;the corrosion chemicals are dominated by halides;the radionuclides are dominated by C-14, P-32, and S-35;their is high level of nitrogen contamination in the blanket stream. 77 refs., 6 figs., 13 tabs

  14. Monte Carlo simulation of Markov unreliability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, E.E.; Boehm, F.

    1984-01-01

    A Monte Carlo method is formulated for the evaluation of the unrealibility of complex systems with known component failure and repair rates. The formulation is in terms of a Markov process allowing dependences between components to be modeled and computational efficiencies to be achieved in the Monte Carlo simulation. Two variance reduction techniques, forced transition and failure biasing, are employed to increase computational efficiency of the random walk procedure. For an example problem these result in improved computational efficiency by more than three orders of magnitudes over analog Monte Carlo. The method is generalized to treat problems with distributed failure and repair rate data, and a batching technique is introduced and shown to result in substantial increases in computational efficiency for an example problem. A method for separating the variance due to the data uncertainty from that due to the finite number of random walks is presented. (orig.)

  15. A Parallel Solver for Large-Scale Markov Chains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benzi, M.; Tůma, Miroslav

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 41, - (2002), s. 135-153 ISSN 0168-9274 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2030801; GA ČR GA101/00/1035 Keywords : parallel preconditioning * iterative methods * discrete Markov chains * generalized inverses * singular matrices * graph partitioning * AINV * Bi-CGSTAB Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.504, year: 2002

  16. Shape Modelling Using Markov Random Field Restoration of Point Correspondences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Hilger, Klaus Baggesen

    2003-01-01

    A method for building statistical point distribution models is proposed. The novelty in this paper is the adaption of Markov random field regularization of the correspondence field over the set of shapes. The new approach leads to a generative model that produces highly homogeneous polygonized sh...

  17. Reservoir Modeling Combining Geostatistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zunino, Andrea; Lange, Katrine; Melnikova, Yulia

    2014-01-01

    We present a study on the inversion of seismic reflection data generated from a synthetic reservoir model. Our aim is to invert directly for rock facies and porosity of the target reservoir zone. We solve this inverse problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method to handle the nonlinear...

  18. Students' Progress throughout Examination Process as a Markov Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavatý, Robert; Dömeová, Ludmila

    2014-01-01

    The paper is focused on students of Mathematical methods in economics at the Czech university of life sciences (CULS) in Prague. The idea is to create a model of students' progress throughout the whole course using the Markov chain approach. Each student has to go through various stages of the course requirements where his success depends on the…

  19. K­MEANS CLUSTERING FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perrone, M.P.; Connell, S.D.

    2004-01-01

    An unsupervised k­means clustering algorithm for hidden Markov models is described and applied to the task of generating subclass models for individual handwritten character classes. The algorithm is compared to a related clustering method and shown to give a relative change in the error rate of as

  20. A theoretical Markov chain model for evaluating correctional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper a stochastic method is applied in the study of the long time effect of confinement in a correctional institution on the behaviour of a person with criminal tendencies. The approach used is Markov chain, which uses past history to predict the state of a system in the future. A model is developed for comparing the ...

  1. Epitope discovery with phylogenetic hidden Markov models.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Lacerda, Miguel

    2010-05-01

    Existing methods for the prediction of immunologically active T-cell epitopes are based on the amino acid sequence or structure of pathogen proteins. Additional information regarding the locations of epitopes may be acquired by considering the evolution of viruses in hosts with different immune backgrounds. In particular, immune-dependent evolutionary patterns at sites within or near T-cell epitopes can be used to enhance epitope identification. We have developed a mutation-selection model of T-cell epitope evolution that allows the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype of the host to influence the evolutionary process. This is one of the first examples of the incorporation of environmental parameters into a phylogenetic model and has many other potential applications where the selection pressures exerted on an organism can be related directly to environmental factors. We combine this novel evolutionary model with a hidden Markov model to identify contiguous amino acid positions that appear to evolve under immune pressure in the presence of specific host immune alleles and that therefore represent potential epitopes. This phylogenetic hidden Markov model provides a rigorous probabilistic framework that can be combined with sequence or structural information to improve epitope prediction. As a demonstration, we apply the model to a data set of HIV-1 protein-coding sequences and host HLA genotypes.

  2. Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Grace

    2013-07-01

    J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

  3. Unmixing hyperspectral images using Markov random fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eches, Olivier; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new spectral unmixing strategy based on the normal compositional model that exploits the spatial correlations between the image pixels. The pure materials (referred to as endmembers) contained in the image are assumed to be available (they can be obtained by using an appropriate endmember extraction algorithm), while the corresponding fractions (referred to as abundances) are estimated by the proposed algorithm. Due to physical constraints, the abundances have to satisfy positivity and sum-to-one constraints. The image is divided into homogeneous distinct regions having the same statistical properties for the abundance coefficients. The spatial dependencies within each class are modeled thanks to Potts-Markov random fields. Within a Bayesian framework, prior distributions for the abundances and the associated hyperparameters are introduced. A reparametrization of the abundance coefficients is proposed to handle the physical constraints (positivity and sum-to-one) inherent to hyperspectral imagery. The parameters (abundances), hyperparameters (abundance mean and variance for each class) and the classification map indicating the classes of all pixels in the image are inferred from the resulting joint posterior distribution. To overcome the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to generate samples asymptotically distributed according to the joint posterior of interest. Simulations conducted on synthetic and real data are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

  4. Epoxy blanket protects milled part during explosive forming

    Science.gov (United States)

    1966-01-01

    Epoxy blanket protects chemically milled or machined sections of large, complex structural parts during explosive forming. The blanket uniformly covers all exposed surfaces and fills any voids to support and protect the entire part.

  5. Some new ideas for Tandem Mirror blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neef, W.S. Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The Tandem Mirror Reactor, with its cylindrical central cell, has led to numerous blanket designs taking advantage of the simple geometry. Also many new applications for fusion neutrons are now being considered. To the pure fusion electricity producers and hybrids producing fissile fuel, we are adding studies of synthetic fuel producers and fission-suppressed hybrids. The three blanket concepts presented are new ideas and should be considered illustrative of the breadth of Livermore's application studies. They are not meant to imply fully analyzed designs

  6. Fusion blanket high-temperature heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fillo, J.A.

    1983-01-01

    Deep penetration of 14 MeV neutrons makes two-temperature region blankets feasible. A relatively low-temperature (approx. 300 0 C) metallic structure is the vacuum/coolant pressure boundary, while the interior of the blanket, which is a simple packed bed of nonstructural material, operates at very high temperatures (>1000 0 C). The water-cooled shell structure is thermally insulated from the steam-cooled interior. High-temperature steam can dramatically increase the efficiency of electric power generation, as well as produce hydrogen and oxygen-based synthetic fuels at high-efficiency

  7. Tritium behaviour in ceramic breeder blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Tritium release from the candidate ceramic materials, Li 2 O, LiA10 2 , Li 2 SiO 3 , Li 4 SiO 4 and Li 2 ZrO 3 , is being investigated in many blanket programs. Factors that affect tritium release from the ceramic into the helium sweep gas stream include operating temperature, ceramic microstructure, tritium transport and solubility in the solid. A review is presented of the material properties studied and of the irradiation programs and the results are summarized. The ceramic breeder blanket concept is briefly reviewed

  8. Quantum Markov processes and applications in many-body systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temme, P. K.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis is concerned with the investigation of quantum as well as classical Markov processes and their application in the field of strongly correlated many-body systems. A Markov process is a special kind of stochastic process, which is determined by an evolution that is independent of its history and only depends on the current state of the system. The application of Markov processes has a long history in the field of statistical mechanics and classical many-body theory. Not only are Markov processes used to describe the dynamics of stochastic systems, but they predominantly also serve as a practical method that allows for the computation of fundamental properties of complex many-body systems by means of probabilistic algorithms. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the properties of quantum Markov processes, i.e. Markov processes taking place in a quantum mechanical state space, and to gain a better insight into complex many-body systems by means thereof. Moreover, we formulate a novel quantum algorithm which allows for the computation of the thermal and ground states of quantum many-body systems. After a brief introduction to quantum Markov processes we turn to an investigation of their convergence properties. We find bounds on the convergence rate of the quantum process by generalizing geometric bounds found for classical processes. We generalize a distance measure that serves as the basis for our investigations, the chi-square divergence, to non-commuting probability spaces. This divergence allows for a convenient generalization of the detailed balance condition to quantum processes. We then devise the quantum algorithm that can be seen as the natural generalization of the ubiquitous Metropolis algorithm to simulate quantum many-body Hamiltonians. By this we intend to provide further evidence, that a quantum computer can serve as a fully-fledged quantum simulator, which is not only capable of describing the dynamical evolution of quantum systems, but

  9. Fusion-reactor blanket and coolant material compatibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeppson, D.W.; Keough, R.F.

    1981-01-01

    Fusion reactor blanket and coolant compatibility tests are being conducted to aid in the selection and design of safe blanket and coolant systems for future fusion reactors. Results of scoping compatibility tests to date are reported for blanket material and water interactions at near operating temperatures. These tests indicate the quantitative hydrogen release, the maximum temperature and pressures produced and the rates of interactions for selected blanket materials

  10. Tritium inventory and permeation in liquid breeder blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, F.

    1990-01-01

    This report reviews studies of the transport of hydrogen isotopes in the DEMO relevant water-cooled Pb-17Li blanket to be tested in NET and in a self-cooled blanket which uses Pb-17Li or Flibe as a liquid breeder material and V or Fe as a first wall material. The time dependences of tritium inventory and permeation in these blankets and of deuterium and tritium recycling in the self-cooled blanket are presented and discussed

  11. Verification of Open Interactive Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Brazdil, Tomas; Hermanns, Holger; Krcal, Jan; Kretinsky, Jan; Rehak, Vojtech

    2012-01-01

    Interactive Markov chains (IMC) are compositional behavioral models extending both labeled transition systems and continuous-time Markov chains. IMC pair modeling convenience - owed to compositionality properties - with effective verification algorithms and tools - owed to Markov properties. Thus far however, IMC verification did not consider compositionality properties, but considered closed systems. This paper discusses the evaluation of IMC in an open and thus compositional interpretation....

  12. A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    If ($C_n$) a Markov chain on a discrete state space $S$, a Markov chain ($C_n, M_n$) on the product space $S \\times S$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain behaves like the original Markov chain and the second component changes only when both

  13. Criterion of Semi-Markov Dependent Risk Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yun MO; Xiang Qun YANG

    2014-01-01

    A rigorous definition of semi-Markov dependent risk model is given. This model is a generalization of the Markov dependent risk model. A criterion and necessary conditions of semi-Markov dependent risk model are obtained. The results clarify relations between elements among semi-Markov dependent risk model more clear and are applicable for Markov dependent risk model.

  14. Hidden Markov model analysis of maternal behavior patterns in inbred and reciprocal hybrid mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria Carola

    Full Text Available Individual variation in maternal care in mammals shows a significant heritable component, with the maternal behavior of daughters resembling that of their mothers. In laboratory mice, genetically distinct inbred strains show stable differences in maternal care during the first postnatal week. Moreover, cross fostering and reciprocal breeding studies demonstrate that differences in maternal care between inbred strains persist in the absence of genetic differences, demonstrating a non-genetic or epigenetic contribution to maternal behavior. In this study we applied a mathematical tool, called hidden Markov model (HMM, to analyze the behavior of female mice in the presence of their young. The frequency of several maternal behaviors in mice has been previously described, including nursing/grooming pups and tending to the nest. However, the ordering, clustering, and transitions between these behaviors have not been systematically described and thus a global description of maternal behavior is lacking. Here we used HMM to describe maternal behavior patterns in two genetically distinct mouse strains, C57BL/6 and BALB/c, and their genetically identical reciprocal hybrid female offspring. HMM analysis is a powerful tool to identify patterns of events that cluster in time and to determine transitions between these clusters, or hidden states. For the HMM analysis we defined seven states: arched-backed nursing, blanket nursing, licking/grooming pups, grooming, activity, eating, and sleeping. By quantifying the frequency, duration, composition, and transition probabilities of these states we were able to describe the pattern of maternal behavior in mouse and identify aspects of these patterns that are under genetic and nongenetic inheritance. Differences in these patterns observed in the experimental groups (inbred and hybrid females were detected only after the application of HMM analysis whereas classical statistical methods and analyses were not able to

  15. Learning Markov models for stationary system behaviors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yingke; Mao, Hua; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    to a single long observation sequence, and in these situations existing automatic learning methods cannot be applied. In this paper, we adapt algorithms for learning variable order Markov chains from a single observation sequence of a target system, so that stationary system properties can be verified using......Establishing an accurate model for formal verification of an existing hardware or software system is often a manual process that is both time consuming and resource demanding. In order to ease the model construction phase, methods have recently been proposed for automatically learning accurate...... the learned model. Experiments demonstrate that system properties (formulated as stationary probabilities of LTL formulas) can be reliably identified using the learned model....

  16. Estimation and uncertainty of reversible Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin; Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

    2015-11-07

    Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model rely heavily on the reversibility property. The estimation of a reversible transition matrix from simulation data is, therefore, crucial to the successful application of the previously developed theory. In this work, we discuss methods for the maximum likelihood estimation of transition matrices from finite simulation data and present a new algorithm for the estimation if reversibility with respect to a given stationary vector is desired. We also develop new methods for the Bayesian posterior inference of reversible transition matrices with and without given stationary vector taking into account the need for a suitable prior distribution preserving the meta-stable features of the observed process during posterior inference. All algorithms here are implemented in the PyEMMA software--http://pyemma.org--as of version 2.0.

  17. New Bayesian inference method using two steps of Markov chain Monte Carlo and its application to shock tube experiment data of Furan oxidation

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Daesang; El Gharamti, Iman; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Farooq, Aamir; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    A new Bayesian inference method has been developed and applied to Furan shock tube experimental data for efficient statistical inferences of the Arrhenius parameters of two OH radical consumption reactions. The collected experimental data, which

  18. Conceptual design and neutronics analyses of a fusion reactor blanket simulation facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beller, D.E.

    1986-01-01

    A new conceptual design of a fusion reactor blanket simulation facility was developed. This design follows the principles that have been successfully employed in the Purdue Fast Breeder Blanket Facility (FBBR), because experiments conducted in it have resulted in the discovery of deficiencies in neutronics prediction methods. With this design, discrepancies between calculation and experimental data can be fully attributed to calculation methods because design deficiencies that could affect results are insignificant. Inelastic scattering cross sections are identified as a major source of these discrepancies. The conceptual design of this FBBR analog, the fusion reactor blanket facility (FRBF), is presented. Essential features are a cylindrical geometry and a distributed, cosine-shaped line source of 14-MeV neutrons. This source can be created by sweeping a deuteron beam over an elongated titanium-tritide target. To demonstrate that the design of the FRBF will not contribute significant deviations in experimental results, neutronics analyses were performed: results of comparisons of 2-dimensional to 1-dimensional predictions are reported for two blanket compositions. Expected deviations from 1-D predictions which are due to source anisotropy and blanket asymmetry are minimal. Thus, design of the FRBF allows simple and straightforward interpretation of the experimental results, without a need for coarse 3-D calculations

  19. Phase-IIC experiments of the JAERI/USDOE collaborative program on fusion blanket neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyama, Yukio

    1992-12-01

    Neutronics experiments on two types of heterogeneous blankets have been performed as the Phase-IIC experiment of JAERI/USDOE collaborative program on fusion blanket neutronics. The experimental system was used in the same geometry as the previous Phase-IIA series which was a closed geometry using neutron source enclosure of lithium carbonate. The heterogeneous blankets selected here are the beryllium edge-on and the water coolant channel assemblies. In the former the beryllium and lithium-oxide layers are piled up alternately in the front part of test blanket. In the latter, the three simulated water cooling channels are settled in the Li 2 O blanket. These are producing steep gradient of neutron flux around material boundary. The calculation accuracy and measurement method for these features is a key of interest in the experiments. The measurements were performed for tritium production rate and the other nuclear parameters as well as the previous experiments. This report describes the experimental detail and the results enough to use for the benchmark data for testing the data and method of design calculation of fusion reactors. (author)

  20. INTOR first wall/blanket/shield activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gohar, Y.; Billone, M.C.; Cha, Y.S.; Finn, P.A.; Hassanein, A.M.; Liu, Y.Y.; Majumdar, S.; Picologlou, B.F.; Smith, D.L.

    1986-01-01

    The main emphasis of the INTOR first wall/blanket/shield (FWBS) during this period has been upon the tritium breeding issues. The objective is to develop a FWBS concept which produces the tritium requirement for INTOR operation and uses a small fraction of the first wall surface area. The FWBS is constrained by the dimensions of the reference design and the protection criteria required for different reactor components. The blanket extrapolation to commercial power reactor conditions and the proper temperature for power extraction have been sacrificed to achieve the highest possible local tritium breeding ratio (TBR). In addition, several other factors that have been considered in the blanket survey study include safety, reliability, lifetime fluence, number of burn cycles, simplicity, cost, and development issues. The implications of different tritium supply scenarios were discussed from the cost and availability for INTOR conditions. A wide variety of blanket options was explored in a preliminary way to determine feasibility and to see if they can satisfy the INTOR conditions. This survey and related issues are summarized in this report. Also discussed are material design requirements, thermal hydraulic considerations, structure analyses, tritium permeation through the first wall into the coolant, and tritium inventory

  1. Optimization of beryllium for fusion blanket applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billone, M.C.

    1993-01-01

    The primary function of beryllium in a fusion reactor blanket is neutron multiplication to enhance tritium breeding. However, because heat, tritium and helium will be generated in and/or transported through beryllium and because the beryllium is in contact with other blanket materials, the thermal, mechanical, tritium/helium and compatibility properties of beryllium are important in blanket design. In particular, tritium retention during normal operation and release during overheating events are safety concerns. Accommodating beryllium thermal expansion and helium-induced swelling are important issues in ensuring adequate lifetime of the structural components adjacent to the beryllium. Likewise, chemical/metallurgical interactions between beryllium and structural components need to be considered in lifetime analysis. Under accident conditions the chemical interaction between beryllium and coolant and breeding materials may also become important. The performance of beryllium in fusion blanket applications depends on fabrication variables and operational parameters. First the properties database is reviewed to determine the state of knowledge of beryllium performance as a function of these variables. Several design calculations are then performed to indicate ranges of fabrication and operation variables that lead to optimum beryllium performance. Finally, areas for database expansion and improvement are highlighted based on the properties survey and the design sensitivity studies

  2. ITER driver blanket, European Community design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simbolotti, G.; Zampaglione, V.; Ferrari, M.; Gallina, M.; Mazzone, G.; Nardi, C.; Petrizzi, L.; Rado, V.; Violante, V.; Daenner, W.; Lorenzetto, P.; Gierszewski, P.; Grattarola, M.; Rosatelli, F.; Secolo, F.; Zacchia, F.; Caira, M.; Sorabella, L.

    1993-01-01

    Depending on the final decision on the operation time of ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), the Driver Blanket might become a basic component of the machine with the main function of producing a significant fraction (close to 0.8) of the tritium required for the ITER operation, the remaining fraction being available from external supplies. The Driver Blanket is not required to provide reactor relevant performance in terms of tritium self-sufficiency. However, reactor relevant reliability and safety are mandatory requirements for this component in order not to significantly afftect the overall plant availability and to allow the ITER experimental program to be safely and successfully carried out. With the framework of the ITER Conceptual Design Activities (CDA, 1988-1990), a conceptual design of the ITER Driver Blanket has been carried out by ENEA Fusion Dept., in collaboration with ANSALDO S.p.A. and SRS S.r.l., and in close consultation with the NET Team and CFFTP (Canadian Fusion Fuels Technology Project). Such a design has been selected as EC (European Community) reference design for the ITER Driver Blanket. The status of the design at the end of CDA is reported in the present paper. (orig.)

  3. European blanket development for a demo reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giancarli, L.; Proust, E.; Anzidei, L.

    1994-01-01

    There are four breeding blanket concepts for a fusion DEMO reactor under development within the framework of the fusion technology programme of the European Union (EU). This paper describes the design of these concepts, the accompanying R + D programme and the status of the development. (authors). 8 figs., 1 tab

  4. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  5. Quasi-Feller Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean B. Lasserre

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the class of Markov kernels for which the weak or strong Feller property fails to hold at some discontinuity set. We provide a simple necessary and sufficient condition for existence of an invariant probability measure as well as a Foster-Lyapunov sufficient condition. We also characterize a subclass, the quasi (weak or strong Feller kernels, for which the sequences of expected occupation measures share the same asymptotic properties as for (weak or strong Feller kernels. In particular, it is shown that the sequences of expected occupation measures of strong and quasi strong-Feller kernels with an invariant probability measure converge setwise to an invariant measure.

  6. Markov process of muscle motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratiev, Yu; Pechersky, E; Pirogov, S

    2008-01-01

    We study a Markov random process describing muscle molecular motor behaviour. Every motor is either bound up with a thin filament or unbound. In the bound state the motor creates a force proportional to its displacement from the neutral position. In both states the motor spends an exponential time depending on the state. The thin filament moves at a velocity proportional to the average of all displacements of all motors. We assume that the time which a motor stays in the bound state does not depend on its displacement. Then one can find an exact solution of a nonlinear equation appearing in the limit of an infinite number of motors

  7. Semi-Markov Chains and Hidden Semi-Markov Models toward Applications Their Use in Reliability and DNA Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Vlad

    2008-01-01

    Semi-Markov processes are much more general and better adapted to applications than the Markov ones because sojourn times in any state can be arbitrarily distributed, as opposed to the geometrically distributed sojourn time in the Markov case. This book concerns with the estimation of discrete-time semi-Markov and hidden semi-Markov processes

  8. Magnetohydrodynamic research in fusion blanket engineering and metallurgical processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokuhiro, A.

    1991-11-01

    A review of recent research activities in liquid metal magnetohydrodynamics (LM-MHDs) is presented in this article. Two major reserach areas are discussed. The first topic involves the thermomechanical design issues in a proposed tokamak fusion reactor. The primary concerns are in the magneto-thermal-hydraulic performance of a self-cooled liquid metal blanket. The second topic involves the application of MHD in material processing in the metallurgical and semiconductor industries. The two representative applications are electromagnetic stirring (EMS) of continuously cast steel and the Czochralski (CZ) method of crystal growth in the presence of a magnetic field. (author) 24 figs., 10 tabs., 136 refs

  9. Parallel algorithms for simulating continuous time Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, David M.; Heidelberger, Philip

    1992-01-01

    We have previously shown that the mathematical technique of uniformization can serve as the basis of synchronization for the parallel simulation of continuous-time Markov chains. This paper reviews the basic method and compares five different methods based on uniformization, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses as a function of problem characteristics. The methods vary in their use of optimism, logical aggregation, communication management, and adaptivity. Performance evaluation is conducted on the Intel Touchstone Delta multiprocessor, using up to 256 processors.

  10. The current status of fusion reactor blanket thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veleckis, E.; Yonco, R.M.; Maroni, V.A.

    1980-01-01

    The available thermodynamic information is reviewed for three categories of materials that meet essential criteria for use as breeding blankets in D-T fuelled fusion reactors: liquid lithium, solid lithium alloys, and lithium-containing ceramics. The leading candidate, liquid lithium, which also has potential for use as a coolant, has been studied more extensively than have the solid alloys or ceramics. Recent studies of liquid lithium have concentrated on its sorption characteristics for hydrogen isotopes and its interaction with common impurity elements. Hydrogen isotope sorption data (P-C-T relations, activity coefficients, Sieverts' constants, plateau pressures, isotope effects, free energies of formation, phase boundaries, etc.) are presented in a tabular form that can be conveniently used to extract thermodynamic information for the α-phases of the Li-LiH, Li-LiD and Li-LiT systems and to construct complete phase diagrams. Recent solubility data for Li 3 N, Li 2 O, and Li 2 C 2 in liquid lithium are discussed with emphasis on the prospects for removing these species by cold-trapping methods. Current studies on the sorption of hydrogen in solid lithium alloys (e.g. Li-Al and Li-Pb), made using a new technique (the hydrogen titration method), have shown that these alloys should lead to smaller blanket-tritium inventories than are attainable with liquid lithium and that the P-C-T relationships for hydrogen in Li-M alloys can be estimated from lithium activity data for these alloys. There is essentially no refined thermodynamic information on the prospective ceramic blanket materials. The kinetics of tritium release from these materials is briefly discussed. Research areas are pointed out where additional thermodynamic information is needed for all three material categories. (author)

  11. Packed-fluidized-bed blanket concept for a thorium-fueled commercial tokamak hybrid reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chi, J.W.H.; Miller, J.W.; Karbowski, J.S.; Chapin, D.L.; Kelly, J.L.

    1980-09-01

    A preliminary design of a thorium blanket was carried out as a part of the Commercial Tokamak Hybrid Reactor (CTHR) study. A fixed fuel blanket concept was developed as the reference CTHR blanket with uranium carbide fuel and helium coolant. A fixed fuel blanket was initially evaluated for the thorium blanket study. Subsequently, a new type of hybrid blanket, a packed-fluidized bed (PFB), was conceived. The PFB blanket concept has a number of unique features that may solve some of the problems encountered in the design of tokamak hybrid reactor blankets. This report documents the thorium blanket study and describes the feasibility assessment of the PFB blanket concept

  12. Fabrication of prototype mockups of ITER shielding blanket with separable first wall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosaku, Yasuo; Kuroda, Toshimasa; Enoeda, Mikio; Hatano, Toshihisa; Sato, Satoshi; Akiba, Masato

    2002-07-01

    Design of shielding blanket for ITER-FEAT applies the first wall which has the separable structure from the shield block for the purpose of radio-active waste reduction in the maintenance work and cost reduction in fabrication process. Also, it is required to have various types of slots in both of the first wall and the shield block, to reduce the eddy current for reduction of electro-magnetic force in disruption events. This report summarizes the demonstrative fabrication of the ITER shielding blanket with separable first wall performed for the shielding blanket fabrication technology development, under the task agreement of G 16 TT 108 FJ (T420-2) in ITER Engineering Design Activity Extension Period. The objectives of the demonstrative fabrication are: to demonstrate the comprehensive fabrication technique in a large scale component (e.g the joining techniques for the beryllium armor/copper alloy and copper alloy/SS, and the slotting method of the FW and shield block); to develop an improved fabrication method for the shielding blanket based on the ITER-FEAT updated design. In this work, the fabrication technique of full scale separable first wall shield blanket was confirmed by fabricating full width Be armored first wall panel, full scale of 1/2 shield block with poloidal cooling channels. As the R and D for updated cooling channel configuration, the fabrication technique of the radial channel shield block was also demonstrated. Concluding to the all R and D results, it was demonstrated successfully that the fabrication technique and optimized conditions in the results obtained under the task agreement of G 16 TT 95 FJ (T420-1) was applicable to the prototype of the separable first wall blanket module. Additionally, basic echo data of ultra-sonic test method (UT) was obtained to show the applicability of UT method for in tube access detection of defect on the Cu alloy/SS tube interface. (author)

  13. The Markov moment problem and extremal problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kreĭn, M G; Louvish, D

    1977-01-01

    In this book, an extensive circle of questions originating in the classical work of P. L. Chebyshev and A. A. Markov is considered from the more modern point of view. It is shown how results and methods of the generalized moment problem are interlaced with various questions of the geometry of convex bodies, algebra, and function theory. From this standpoint, the structure of convex and conical hulls of curves is studied in detail and isoperimetric inequalities for convex hulls are established; a theory of orthogonal and quasiorthogonal polynomials is constructed; problems on limiting values of integrals and on least deviating functions (in various metrics) are generalized and solved; problems in approximation theory and interpolation and extrapolation in various function classes (analytic, absolutely monotone, almost periodic, etc.) are solved, as well as certain problems in optimal control of linear objects.

  14. Markov state models of protein misfolding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirur, Anshul; De Sancho, David; Best, Robert B.

    2016-02-01

    Markov state models (MSMs) are an extremely useful tool for understanding the conformational dynamics of macromolecules and for analyzing MD simulations in a quantitative fashion. They have been extensively used for peptide and protein folding, for small molecule binding, and for the study of native ensemble dynamics. Here, we adapt the MSM methodology to gain insight into the dynamics of misfolded states. To overcome possible flaws in root-mean-square deviation (RMSD)-based metrics, we introduce a novel discretization approach, based on coarse-grained contact maps. In addition, we extend the MSM methodology to include "sink" states in order to account for the irreversibility (on simulation time scales) of processes like protein misfolding. We apply this method to analyze the mechanism of misfolding of tandem repeats of titin domains, and how it is influenced by confinement in a chaperonin-like cavity.

  15. Interactions of D-T neutrons in graphite and lithium blankets of fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ofek, R.

    1986-05-01

    The present study deals with integral experiment and calculation of neutron energy spectra in bulks of graphite which is used as a reflector in blankets of fusion reactors, and lithium, the material of the blanket on which lithium is bred due to neutron interactions. The collimated beam configuration enables - due to the almost monoenergeticity and unidirectionality of the neutrons impinging on the target - to identify fine details in the measured spectra, and also facilitates the absolute normalization of the spectra. The measured and calculated spectra are generally in a good agreement and in a very good agreement at mesh points close to the system axis. A few conclusions may be drawn: a) the collimated beam source configuration is a sensitive tool for measuring neutron energy spectra with a high resolution, b) the method of unfolding proton-recoil spectra measured with a NE-213 scintillator should be improved, c) MCNP and DOT 4.2 may be used as complementary codes for neutron transport calculations of fusion blankets and deep-penetration problems, d) the updating of the cross-section libraries and checking by integral experiments is highly important for the design of fusion blankets. The present study may be regarded as an important course in the research and development of tools for the design of fusion blankets

  16. Blanket design study for a Commercial Tokamak Hybrid Reactor (CTHR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapin, D.L.; Green, L.; Lee, A.Y.; Culbert, M.E.; Kelly, J.L.

    1979-09-01

    The results are presented of a study on two blanket design concepts for application in a Commercial Tokamak Hybrid Reactor (CTHR). Both blankets operate on the U-Pu cycle and are designed to achieve tritium self-sufficiency while maximizing the fissile fuel production within thermal and mechanical design constraints. The two blanket concepts that were evaluated were: (1) a UC fueled, stainless steel clad and structure, helium cooled blanket; and (2) a UO 2 fueled, zircaloy clad, stainless steel structure, boiling water cooled blanket. Two different tritium breeding media, Li 2 O and LiH, were evaluated for use in both blanket concepts. The use of lead as a neutron multiplier or reflector and graphite as a reflector was also considered for both blankets

  17. Thermomechanical analysis of the DFLL test blanket module for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Hongli; Wu Yican; Bai Yunqing

    2006-01-01

    The finite element code is used to simulate two kinds of blanket design structure, which are SLL (Quasi-Static Lithium Lead) and DLL (Dual-cooled Lithium Lead) blanket concepts for the Dual Functional Lithium Lead-Test Blanket Module (DFLL-TBM) submitted to the ITER test blanket working group. The temperature and stress distributions have been presented for the two kinds of blanket structure on the basis of the structural design, thermal-hydraulic design and neutronics analysis. Also the mechanical performance is presented for the high temperature component of blanket structure according to the ITER Structural Design Criteria (ISDC). The rationality and feasibility of the two kinds of blanket structure design of DFLL-TBM have been analyzed based on the above results which also acted as the theoretical base for further optimized analysis. (authors)

  18. New Bayesian inference method using two steps of Markov chain Monte Carlo and its application to shock tube experiment data of Furan oxidation

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Daesang

    2016-01-06

    A new Bayesian inference method has been developed and applied to Furan shock tube experimental data for efficient statistical inferences of the Arrhenius parameters of two OH radical consumption reactions. The collected experimental data, which consist of time series signals of OH radical concentrations of 14 shock tube experiments, may require several days for MCMC computations even with the support of a fast surrogate of the combustion simulation model, while the new method reduces it to several hours by splitting the process into two steps of MCMC: the first inference of rate constants and the second inference of the Arrhenius parameters. Each step has low dimensional parameter spaces and the second step does not need the executions of the combustion simulation. Furthermore, the new approach has more flexibility in choosing the ranges of the inference parameters, and the higher speed and flexibility enable the more accurate inferences and the analyses of the propagation of errors in the measured temperatures and the alignment of the experimental time to the inference results.

  19. Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit

    1989-01-01

    Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

  20. Timed Comparisons of Semi-Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mathias Ruggaard; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Bacci, Giorgio

    2018-01-01

    -Markov processes, and investigate the question of how to compare two semi-Markov processes with respect to their time-dependent behaviour. To this end, we introduce the relation of being “faster than” between processes and study its algorithmic complexity. Through a connection to probabilistic automata we obtain...

  1. Probabilistic Reachability for Parametric Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahn, Ernst Moritz; Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun

    2011-01-01

    Given a parametric Markov model, we consider the problem of computing the rational function expressing the probability of reaching a given set of states. To attack this principal problem, Daws has suggested to first convert the Markov chain into a finite automaton, from which a regular expression...

  2. Inhomogeneous Markov point processes by transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Eva B. Vedel; Nielsen, Linda Stougaard

    2000-01-01

    We construct parametrized models for point processes, allowing for both inhomogeneity and interaction. The inhomogeneity is obtained by applying parametrized transformations to homogeneous Markov point processes. An interesting model class, which can be constructed by this transformation approach......, is that of exponential inhomogeneous Markov point processes. Statistical inference For such processes is discussed in some detail....

  3. Markov-modulated and feedback fluid queues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.

    1998-01-01

    In the last twenty years the field of Markov-modulated fluid queues has received considerable attention. In these models a fluid reservoir receives and/or releases fluid at rates which depend on the actual state of a background Markov chain. In the first chapter of this thesis we give a short

  4. Design and technology development of solid breeder blanket cooled by supercritical water in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enoeda, M.; Kosaku, Y.; Hatano, T.; Kuroda, T.; Miki, N.; Honma, T.; Akiba, M.; Konishi, S.; Nakamura, H.; Kawamura, Y.; Sato, S.; Furuya, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.

    2003-12-01

    This paper presents results of conceptual design activities and associated R&D of a solid breeder blanket system for demonstration of power generation fusion reactors (DEMO blanket) cooled by supercritical water. The Fusion Council of Japan developed the long-term research and development programme of the blanket in 1999. To make the fusion DEMO reactor more attractive, a higher thermal efficiency of more than 40% was strongly recommended. To meet this requirement, the design of the DEMO fusion reactor was carried out. In conjunction with the reactor design, a new concept of a solid breeder blanket cooled by supercritical water was proposed and design and technology development of a solid breeder blanket cooled by supercritical water was performed. By thermo-mechanical analyses of the first wall, the tresca stress was evaluated to be 428 MPa, which clears the 3Sm value of F82H. By thermal and nuclear analyses of the breeder layers, it was shown that a net TBR of more than 1.05 can be achieved. By thermal analysis of the supercritical water power plant, it was shown that a thermal efficiency of more than 41% is achievable. The design work included design of the coolant flow pattern for blanket modules, module structure design, thermo-mechanical analysis and neutronics analysis of the blanket module, and analyses of the tritium inventory and permeation. Preliminary integration of the design of a solid breeder blanket cooled by supercritical water was achieved in this study. In parallel with the design activities, engineering R&D was conducted covering all necessary issues, such as development of structural materials, tritium breeding materials, and neutron multiplier materials; neutronics experiments and analyses; and development of the blanket module fabrication technology. Upon developing the fabrication technology for the first wall and box structure, a hot isostatic pressing bonded F82H first wall mock-up with embedded rectangular cooling channels was

  5. Practical Markov Logic Containing First-Order Quantifiers With Application to Identity Uncertainty

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Culotta, Aron; McCallum, Andrew

    2005-01-01

    .... In this paper, we present approximate inference and training methods that incrementally instantiate portions of the network as needed to enable first-order existential and universal quantifiers in Markov logic networks...

  6. Quantum Markov Chain Mixing and Dissipative Engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kastoryano, Michael James

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is the fruit of investigations on the extension of ideas of Markov chain mixing to the quantum setting, and its application to problems of dissipative engineering. A Markov chain describes a statistical process where the probability of future events depends only on the state...... of the system at the present point in time, but not on the history of events. Very many important processes in nature are of this type, therefore a good understanding of their behaviour has turned out to be very fruitful for science. Markov chains always have a non-empty set of limiting distributions...... (stationary states). The aim of Markov chain mixing is to obtain (upper and/or lower) bounds on the number of steps it takes for the Markov chain to reach a stationary state. The natural quantum extensions of these notions are density matrices and quantum channels. We set out to develop a general mathematical...

  7. The Bacterial Sequential Markov Coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Maio, Nicola; Wilson, Daniel J

    2017-05-01

    Bacteria can exchange and acquire new genetic material from other organisms directly and via the environment. This process, known as bacterial recombination, has a strong impact on the evolution of bacteria, for example, leading to the spread of antibiotic resistance across clades and species, and to the avoidance of clonal interference. Recombination hinders phylogenetic and transmission inference because it creates patterns of substitutions (homoplasies) inconsistent with the hypothesis of a single evolutionary tree. Bacterial recombination is typically modeled as statistically akin to gene conversion in eukaryotes, i.e. , using the coalescent with gene conversion (CGC). However, this model can be very computationally demanding as it needs to account for the correlations of evolutionary histories of even distant loci. So, with the increasing popularity of whole genome sequencing, the need has emerged for a faster approach to model and simulate bacterial genome evolution. We present a new model that approximates the coalescent with gene conversion: the bacterial sequential Markov coalescent (BSMC). Our approach is based on a similar idea to the sequential Markov coalescent (SMC)-an approximation of the coalescent with crossover recombination. However, bacterial recombination poses hurdles to a sequential Markov approximation, as it leads to strong correlations and linkage disequilibrium across very distant sites in the genome. Our BSMC overcomes these difficulties, and shows a considerable reduction in computational demand compared to the exact CGC, and very similar patterns in simulated data. We implemented our BSMC model within new simulation software FastSimBac. In addition to the decreased computational demand compared to previous bacterial genome evolution simulators, FastSimBac provides more general options for evolutionary scenarios, allowing population structure with migration, speciation, population size changes, and recombination hotspots. FastSimBac is

  8. Geometry and Dynamics for Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    OpenAIRE

    Barp, Alessandro; Briol, Francois-Xavier; Kennedy, Anthony D.; Girolami, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have revolutionised mathematical computation and enabled statistical inference within many previously intractable models. In this context, Hamiltonian dynamics have been proposed as an efficient way of building chains which can explore probability densities efficiently. The method emerges from physics and geometry and these links have been extensively studied by a series of authors through the last thirty years. However, there is currently a gap between the in...

  9. Resonance Energy Transfer-Based Molecular Switch Designed Using a Systematic Design Process Based on Monte Carlo Methods and Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rallapalli, Arjun

    A RET network consists of a network of photo-active molecules called chromophores that can participate in inter-molecular energy transfer called resonance energy transfer (RET). RET networks are used in a variety of applications including cryptographic devices, storage systems, light harvesting complexes, biological sensors, and molecular rulers. In this dissertation, we focus on creating a RET device called closed-diffusive exciton valve (C-DEV) in which the input to output transfer function is controlled by an external energy source, similar to a semiconductor transistor like the MOSFET. Due to their biocompatibility, molecular devices like the C-DEVs can be used to introduce computing power in biological, organic, and aqueous environments such as living cells. Furthermore, the underlying physics in RET devices are stochastic in nature, making them suitable for stochastic computing in which true random distribution generation is critical. In order to determine a valid configuration of chromophores for the C-DEV, we developed a systematic process based on user-guided design space pruning techniques and built-in simulation tools. We show that our C-DEV is 15x better than C-DEVs designed using ad hoc methods that rely on limited data from prior experiments. We also show ways in which the C-DEV can be improved further and how different varieties of C-DEVs can be combined to form more complex logic circuits. Moreover, the systematic design process can be used to search for valid chromophore network configurations for a variety of RET applications. We also describe a feasibility study for a technique used to control the orientation of chromophores attached to DNA. Being able to control the orientation can expand the design space for RET networks because it provides another parameter to tune their collective behavior. While results showed limited control over orientation, the analysis required the development of a mathematical model that can be used to determine the

  10. A study on the enhancement of the reliability in gravure offset roll printing with blanket swelling control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ga Eul; Woo, Kyoohee; Kang, Dongwoo; Jang, Yunseok; Lee, Taik-Min; Kwon, Sin; Choi, Young-Man; Lee, Moon G

    2016-01-01

    In roll-offset printing (patterning) technology with a PDMS blanket as a transfer medium, one of the major reliability issues is the occurrence of swelling, which involves absorption of the ink solvent in the printing blanket with repeated printing. This study developed a method to resolve blanket swelling in gravure offset roll printing and performed experiments for performance verification. The physical phenomena of mass and heat transfer were applied to fabricate a device based on convection drying. The proposed device managed to effectively control blanket swelling through drying by blowing air and additional temperature control. The experiments verified that printing quality (in particular the variation of the width of printed patterns) was maintained over 500 continuous printing. (paper)

  11. HIP technologies for fusion reactor blankets fabrication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Marois, G.; Federzoni, L.; Bucci, P.; Revirand, P.

    2000-01-01

    The benefit of HIP techniques applied to the fabrication of fusion internal components for higher performances, reliability and cost savings are emphasized. To demonstrate the potential of the techniques, design of new blankets concepts and mock-ups fabrication are currently performed by CEA. A coiled tube concept that allows cooling arrangement flexibility, strong reduction of the machining and number of welds is proposed for ITER IAM. Medium size mock-ups according to the WCLL breeding blanket concept have been manufactured. The fabrication of a large size mock-up is under progress. These activities are supported by numerical calculations to predict the deformations of the parts during HIP'ing. Finally, several HIP techniques issues have been identified and are discussed

  12. Blankets for fusion reactors : materials and neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, S.H. de.

    1980-03-01

    The studies about Fusion Reactors have lead to several problems for which there is no general agreement about the best solution. Nevertheless, several points seem to be well defined, at least for the first generation of reactors. The fuel, for example, should be a mixture of deuterium and tritium. Therefore, the reactor should be able to generate the tritium to be burned and also to transform kinetic energy of the fusion neutrons into heat in a process similar to the fission reactors. The best materials for the composition of the blanket were first selected and then the neutronics for the proposed system was developed. The neutron flux in the blanket was calculated using the discrete ordinates transport code, ANISN. All the nuclides cross sections came from the DLC-28/CTR library, that processed the ENDF/B data, using the SUPERTOG Program. (Author) [pt

  13. Conceptual design of ITER shielding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Satoshi; Takatsu, Hideyuki; Kurasawa, Toshimasa

    1995-03-01

    The present report summarizes the design activities of the ITER first wall and shielding blanket conducted by the JA Home Team during this year (1994) in close contact with the JCT, and reported during the four Technical Meetings held at Garching ITER Co-center. These activities are based on the Task Agreement between the JCT and the JA Home Team. In the present report, a layered configuration composed of separate first walls, modular-type blanket modules and separate back plates has been proposed to realize reliable assembly and maintenance schemes as well as to realize reliable component designs under high surface heat loads, high neutron wall loading and electromagnetic loads during disruptions. Outline of the structural design, consideration on fabricability and maintainability, and the results of thermal, mechanical and electromagnetic analyses are described. (author)

  14. Flow balancing in liquid metal blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tillack, M.S.; Morley, N.B.

    1995-01-01

    Non-uniform flow distribution between parallel channels is one of the most serious concerns for self-cooled liquid metal blankets with electrically insulated walls. We show that uncertainties in flow distribution can be dramatically reduced by relatively simple design modifications. Several design features which impose flow uniformity by electrically coupling parallel channels are surveyed. Basic mechanisms for ''flow balancing'' are described, and a particular self-regulating concept using discrete passive electrodes is proposed for the US ITER advanced blanket concept. Scoping calculations suggest that this simple technique can be very powerful in equalizing the flow, even with massive insulator failures in individual channels. More detailed analyses and experimental verification will be required to demonstrate this concept for ITER. (orig.)

  15. Inferring animal densities from tracking data using Markov chains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Whitehead

    Full Text Available The distributions and relative densities of species are keys to ecology. Large amounts of tracking data are being collected on a wide variety of animal species using several methods, especially electronic tags that record location. These tracking data are effectively used for many purposes, but generally provide biased measures of distribution, because the starts of the tracks are not randomly distributed among the locations used by the animals. We introduce a simple Markov-chain method that produces unbiased measures of relative density from tracking data. The density estimates can be over a geographical grid, and/or relative to environmental measures. The method assumes that the tracked animals are a random subset of the population in respect to how they move through the habitat cells, and that the movements of the animals among the habitat cells form a time-homogenous Markov chain. We illustrate the method using simulated data as well as real data on the movements of sperm whales. The simulations illustrate the bias introduced when the initial tracking locations are not randomly distributed, as well as the lack of bias when the Markov method is used. We believe that this method will be important in giving unbiased estimates of density from the growing corpus of animal tracking data.

  16. Inferring animal densities from tracking data using Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, Hal; Jonsen, Ian D

    2013-01-01

    The distributions and relative densities of species are keys to ecology. Large amounts of tracking data are being collected on a wide variety of animal species using several methods, especially electronic tags that record location. These tracking data are effectively used for many purposes, but generally provide biased measures of distribution, because the starts of the tracks are not randomly distributed among the locations used by the animals. We introduce a simple Markov-chain method that produces unbiased measures of relative density from tracking data. The density estimates can be over a geographical grid, and/or relative to environmental measures. The method assumes that the tracked animals are a random subset of the population in respect to how they move through the habitat cells, and that the movements of the animals among the habitat cells form a time-homogenous Markov chain. We illustrate the method using simulated data as well as real data on the movements of sperm whales. The simulations illustrate the bias introduced when the initial tracking locations are not randomly distributed, as well as the lack of bias when the Markov method is used. We believe that this method will be important in giving unbiased estimates of density from the growing corpus of animal tracking data.

  17. Schmidt games and Markov partitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Jimmy

    2009-01-01

    Let T be a C 2 -expanding self-map of a compact, connected, C ∞ , Riemannian manifold M. We correct a minor gap in the proof of a theorem from the literature: the set of points whose forward orbits are nondense has full Hausdorff dimension. Our correction allows us to strengthen the theorem. Combining the correction with Schmidt games, we generalize the theorem in dimension one: given a point x 0 in M, the set of points whose forward orbit closures miss x 0 is a winning set. Finally, our key lemma, the no matching lemma, may be of independent interest in the theory of symbolic dynamics or the theory of Markov partitions

  18. Variable context Markov chains for HIV protease cleavage site prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oğul, Hasan

    2009-06-01

    Deciphering the knowledge of HIV protease specificity and developing computational tools for detecting its cleavage sites in protein polypeptide chain are very desirable for designing efficient and specific chemical inhibitors to prevent acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. In this study, we developed a generative model based on a generalization of variable order Markov chains (VOMC) for peptide sequences and adapted the model for prediction of their cleavability by certain proteases. The new method, called variable context Markov chains (VCMC), attempts to identify the context equivalence based on the evolutionary similarities between individual amino acids. It was applied for HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction problem and shown to outperform existing methods in terms of prediction accuracy on a common dataset. In general, the method is a promising tool for prediction of cleavage sites of all proteases and encouraged to be used for any kind of peptide classification problem as well.

  19. Geometric allocation approaches in Markov chain Monte Carlo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todo, S; Suwa, H

    2013-01-01

    The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is a versatile tool in statistical physics to evaluate multi-dimensional integrals numerically. For the method to work effectively, we must consider the following key issues: the choice of ensemble, the selection of candidate states, the optimization of transition kernel, algorithm for choosing a configuration according to the transition probabilities. We show that the unconventional approaches based on the geometric allocation of probabilities or weights can improve the dynamics and scaling of the Monte Carlo simulation in several aspects. Particularly, the approach using the irreversible kernel can reduce or sometimes completely eliminate the rejection of trial move in the Markov chain. We also discuss how the space-time interchange technique together with Walker's method of aliases can reduce the computational time especially for the case where the number of candidates is large, such as models with long-range interactions

  20. Recent designs for advanced fusion reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sze, D.K.

    1994-01-01

    A series of reactor design studies based on the Tokamak configuration have been carried out under the direction of Professor Robert Conn of UCLA. They are called ARIES-I through IV. The key mission of these studies is to evaluate the attractiveness of fusion assuming different degrees of advancement in either physics or engineering development. This paper discusses the directions and conclusions of the blanket and related engineering systems for those design studies. ARIES-1 investigated the use of SiC composite as the structural material to increase the blanket temperature and reduce the blanket activation. Li 2 ZrO 3 was used as the breeding material due to its high temperature stability and good tritium recovery characteristics. The ARIES-IV is a modification of ARIES-1. The plasma was in the second stability regime. Li 2 O was used as the breeding material to remove Zr. A gaseous divertor was used to replace the conventional divertor so that high Z divertor target is not required. The physics of ARIES-II was the same as ARIES-IV. The engineering design of the ARIES-II was based on a self-cooled lithium blanket with a V-alloy as the structural material. Even though it was assumed that the plasma was in the second stability regime, the plasma beta was still rather low (3.4%). The ARIES-III is an advanced fuel (D- 3 He) tokamak reactor. The reactor design assumed major advancement on the physics, with a plasma beta of 23.9%. A conventional structural material is acceptable due to the low neutron wall loading. From the radiation damage point of view, the first wall can last the life of the reactor, which is expected to be a major advantage from the engineering design and waste disposal point of view

  1. Conceptual design of Blanket Remote Handling System for CFETR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Jianghua; Song, Yuntao; Pei, Kun; Zhao, Wenlong; Zhang, Yu; Cheng, Yong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The concept for the blanket maintenance is carried out, including three sub-systems. • The basic maintenance procedure for blanket between VV and hot cell is carried out. • The primary kinematics study is used to verify the feasibility of BRHS. • Virtual reality is adopted as another approach to verify the concept design. - Abstract: The China Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR), which is a new superconducting tokamak device being designed by China, has a mission to achieve a high duty time (0.3–0.5). To accomplish this great mission, the big modular blanket option has been adopted to achieve the high efficiency of the blanket maintenance. Considering this mission and the large and heavy blanket module, a novel conceptual blanket maintenance system for CFETR has been carried out by us over the past year. This paper presents the conceptual design of the Blanket Remote Handling System (BRHS), which mainly comprises the In-Vessel-Maintenance-System (IVMS), Lifting System and Blanket-Tool-Manipulator System (BTMS). The BRHS implements the extraction and replacement between in-vessel (the blanket module operation configuration location) and ex-vessel (inside of the vertical maintenance cask) by the collaboration of these three sub systems. What is more, this paper represents the blanket maintenance procedure between the docking station (between hot cell building and tokamak building) and inside the vacuum vessel, in tokamak building. Virtual reality technology is also used to verify and optimize our concept design.

  2. Conceptual design of Blanket Remote Handling System for CFETR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Jianghua, E-mail: weijh@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei (China); Song, Yuntao, E-mail: songyt@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei (China); Pei, Kun; Zhao, Wenlong; Zhang, Yu; Cheng, Yong [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei (China)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The concept for the blanket maintenance is carried out, including three sub-systems. • The basic maintenance procedure for blanket between VV and hot cell is carried out. • The primary kinematics study is used to verify the feasibility of BRHS. • Virtual reality is adopted as another approach to verify the concept design. - Abstract: The China Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR), which is a new superconducting tokamak device being designed by China, has a mission to achieve a high duty time (0.3–0.5). To accomplish this great mission, the big modular blanket option has been adopted to achieve the high efficiency of the blanket maintenance. Considering this mission and the large and heavy blanket module, a novel conceptual blanket maintenance system for CFETR has been carried out by us over the past year. This paper presents the conceptual design of the Blanket Remote Handling System (BRHS), which mainly comprises the In-Vessel-Maintenance-System (IVMS), Lifting System and Blanket-Tool-Manipulator System (BTMS). The BRHS implements the extraction and replacement between in-vessel (the blanket module operation configuration location) and ex-vessel (inside of the vertical maintenance cask) by the collaboration of these three sub systems. What is more, this paper represents the blanket maintenance procedure between the docking station (between hot cell building and tokamak building) and inside the vacuum vessel, in tokamak building. Virtual reality technology is also used to verify and optimize our concept design.

  3. Economic evaluation of the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.

    1985-01-01

    The economic impact of employing the highly ranked blankets in the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study (BCSS) was evaluated in the context of both a tokamak and a tandem mirror power reactor (TMR). The economic evaluation criterion was determined to be the cost of electricity. The influencing factors that were considered are the direct cost of the blankets and related systems; the annual cost of blanket replacement; and the performance of the blanket, heat transfer, and energy conversion systems. The technical and cost bases for comparison were those of the STARFIRE and Mirror Advanced Reactor Study conceptual design power plants. The economic evaluation results indicated that the nitrate-salt-cooled blanket concept is an economically attractive concept for either reactor type. The water-cooled, solid breeder blanket is attractive for the tokamak and somewhat less attractive for the TMR. The helium-cooled, liquidlithium breeder blanket is the least economically desirable of higher ranked concepts. The remaining self-cooled liquid-metal and the helium-cooled blanket concepts represent moderately attractive concepts from an economic standpoint. These results are not in concert with those found in the other BCSS evaluation areas (engineering feasibility, safety, and research and development (R and D) requirements). The blankets faring well economically had generally lower cost components, lower pumping power requirements, and good power production capability. On the other hand, helium- and lithium-cooled systems were preferred from the standpoints of safety, engineering feasibility, and R and D requirements

  4. Tokamak blanket design study, final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-08-01

    A cylindrical module concept was developed, analyzed, and incorporated in a tokamak blanket system that includes piping systems, vacuum boundary sealing, and support structures. The design is based on the use of state-of-the-art structural materials (20% cold-worked type 316 stainless steel), lithium as the breeding material, and pressurized helium as the coolant. The module design consists of nested concentric cylinders (with an outer diameter of 10 cm) and features direct wall cooling by helium flowing between the outer (first-wall) cylinder and the inner (lithium-containing) cylinder. Each cylinder can withstand full coolant pressure, thus enhancing reliability. Results show that stainless steel is a viable material for a first wall subjected to a neutron wall loading of 4 MW/m 2 and a particle heat flux of 1 MW/m 2 . Lifetime analysis shows that the first-wall design meets the goal of operating at 20-min cycles with 95% duty for 100,000 cycles. To reduce system complexity, a larger 20-cm-diam module also was analyzed for incorporation in the blanket assembly. Reliability assessment indicates that it may be possible to double the module in size from 10 to 20 cm in diameter. With a modest increase in coolant pumping power, a blanket assembly comprising 20-cm-diam modules can still achieve 100,000 operating cycles - equivalent to a 3.6-year design lifetime - with only one or two helium coolant leaks into the plasma

  5. Tokamak blanket design study, final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-08-01

    A cylindrical module concept was developed, analyzed, and incorporated in a tokamak blanket system that includes piping systems, vacuum boundary sealing, and support structures. The design is based on the use of state-of-the-art structural materials (20% cold-worked type 316 stainless steel), lithium as the breeding material, and pressurized helium as the coolant. The module design consists of nested concentric cylinders (with an outer diameter of 10 cm) and features direct wall cooling by helium flowing between the outer (first-wall) cylinder and the inner (lithium-containing) cylinder. Each cylinder can withstand full coolant pressure, thus enhancing reliability. Results show that stainless steel is a viable material for a first wall subjected to a neutron wall loading of 4 MW/m/sup 2/ and a particle heat flux of 1 MW/m/sup 2/. Lifetime analysis shows that the first-wall design meets the goal of operating at 20-min cycles with 95% duty for 100,000 cycles. To reduce system complexity, a larger 20-cm-diam module also was analyzed for incorporation in the blanket assembly. Reliability assessment indicates that it may be possible to double the module in size from 10 to 20 cm in diameter. With a modest increase in coolant pumping power, a blanket assembly comprising 20-cm-diam modules can still achieve 100,000 operating cycles - equivalent to a 3.6-year design lifetime - with only one or two helium coolant leaks into the plasma.

  6. ''adding'' algorithm for the Markov chain formalism for radiation transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esposito, L.W.

    1979-01-01

    The Markov chain radiative transfer method of Esposito and House has been shown to be both efficient and accurate for calculation of the diffuse reflection from a homogeneous scattering planetary atmosphere. The use of a new algorithm similar to the ''adding'' formula of Hansen and Travis extends the application of this formalism to an arbitrarily deep atmosphere. The basic idea for this algorithm is to consider a preceding calculation as a single state of a new Markov chain. Successive application of this procedure makes calculation possible for any optical depth without increasing the size of the linear system used. The time required for the algorithm is comparable to that for a doubling calculation for a homogeneous atmosphere, but for a non-homogeneous atmosphere the new method is considerably faster than the standard ''adding'' routine. As with he standard ''adding'' method, the information on the internal radiation field is lost during the calculation. This method retains the advantage of the earlier Markov chain method that the time required is relatively insensitive to the number of illumination angles or observation angles for which the diffuse reflection is calculated. A technical write-up giving fuller details of the algorithm and a sample code are available from the author

  7. Ensemble Learning Method for Hidden Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    dm (Or) ∂ dm (Or) ∂gOrc ∂gOrc ∂a (c) ij ∂a (c) ij ∂ã (c) ij , and ∂L(Λ) ∂b̃ (c) ij = R...r=1 C∑ m=1 ∂lm(Or) ∂ dm (Or) ∂ dm (Or) ∂gOrc ∂gOrc ∂b (c) ij ∂b (c) ij ∂b̃ (c) ij . Substituting the partial derivatives, we get the gradient direction of... crisp and fuzzy character neural networks in handwritten word recognition,” Fuzzy Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 357 –363,

  8. Design and material selection for ITER first wall/blanket, divertor and vacuum vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ioki, K.; Barabash, V.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Gohar, Y.; Janeschitz, G.; Johnson, G.; Kalinin, G.; Lousteau, D.; Onozuka, M.; Parker, R.; Sannazzaro, G.; Tivey, R. [ITER JCT, Garching (Germany)

    1998-10-01

    Design and R and D have progressed on the ITER vacuum vessel, shielding and breeding blankets, and the divertor. The principal materials have been selected and the fabrication methods selected for most of the components based on design and R and D results. The resulting design changes are discussed for each system. (orig.) 11 refs.

  9. Design and material selection for ITER first wall/blanket, divertor and vacuum vessel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioki, K.; Barabash, V.; Cardella, A.; Elio, F.; Gohar, Y.; Janeschitz, G.; Johnson, G.; Kalinin, G.; Lousteau, D.; Onozuka, M.; Parker, R.; Sannazzaro, G.; Tivey, R.

    1998-10-01

    Design and R&D have progressed on the ITER vacuum vessel, shielding and breeding blankets, and the divertor. The principal materials have been selected and the fabrication methods selected for most of the components based on design and R&D results. The resulting design changes are discussed for each system.

  10. Neutron measurements in the core and blankets of the reactor Rapsodie

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdon, J.; Edeline, J.C.

    1968-01-01

    Beside a brief general discussion, the report contains all the core and blanket neutronic measurements. It covers successively the methods, the measurements themselves and the results. The later concern: spectral indexes, axial and radial fission rates, activation foil measurements and neutronic power determination. (authors) [fr

  11. Analysis of the steady state hydraulic behaviour of the ITER blanket cooling system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Maio, P.A., E-mail: pietroalessandro.dimaio@unipa.it [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy); Dell’Orco, G.; Furmanek, A. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon, CS 90 046, 13067 St Paul Lez Durance Cedex (France); Garitta, S. [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy); Merola, M.; Mitteau, R.; Raffray, R. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon, CS 90 046, 13067 St Paul Lez Durance Cedex (France); Spagnuolo, G.A.; Vallone, E. [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy)

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • Nominal steady state hydraulic behaviour of ITER blanket standard sector cooling system has been investigated. • Numerical simulations have been run adopting a qualified thermal-hydraulic system code. • Hydraulic characteristic functions and coolant mass flow rates, velocities and pressure drops have been assessed. • Most of the considered circuits are able to effectively cool blanket modules, meeting ITER requirements. - Abstract: The blanket system is the ITER reactor component devoted to providing a physical boundary for plasma transients and contributing to thermal and nuclear shielding of vacuum vessel, magnets and external components. It is expected to be subjected to significant heat loads under nominal conditions and its cooling system has to ensure an adequate cooling, preventing any risk of critical heat flux occurrence while complying with pressure drop limits. At the University of Palermo a study has been performed, in cooperation with the ITER Organization, to investigate the steady state hydraulic behaviour of the ITER blanket standard sector cooling system. A theoretical–computational approach based on the finite volume method has been followed, adopting the RELAP5 system code. Finite volume models of the most critical blanket cooling circuits have been set-up, realistically simulating the coolant flow domain. The steady state hydraulic behaviour of each cooling circuit has been investigated, determining its hydraulic characteristic function and assessing the spatial distribution of coolant mass flow rates, velocities and pressure drops under reference nominal conditions. Results obtained have indicated that the investigated cooling circuits are able to provide an effective cooling to blanket modules, generally meeting ITER requirements in term of pressure drop and velocity distribution, except for a couple of circuits that are being revised.

  12. Finite Markov processes and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Iosifescu, Marius

    2007-01-01

    A self-contained treatment of finite Markov chains and processes, this text covers both theory and applications. Author Marius Iosifescu, vice president of the Romanian Academy and director of its Center for Mathematical Statistics, begins with a review of relevant aspects of probability theory and linear algebra. Experienced readers may start with the second chapter, a treatment of fundamental concepts of homogeneous finite Markov chain theory that offers examples of applicable models.The text advances to studies of two basic types of homogeneous finite Markov chains: absorbing and ergodic ch

  13. Markov chains analytic and Monte Carlo computations

    CERN Document Server

    Graham, Carl

    2014-01-01

    Markov Chains: Analytic and Monte Carlo Computations introduces the main notions related to Markov chains and provides explanations on how to characterize, simulate, and recognize them. Starting with basic notions, this book leads progressively to advanced and recent topics in the field, allowing the reader to master the main aspects of the classical theory. This book also features: Numerous exercises with solutions as well as extended case studies.A detailed and rigorous presentation of Markov chains with discrete time and state space.An appendix presenting probabilistic notions that are nec

  14. Performance of silvered Teflon (trademark) thermal control blankets on spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pippin, Gary; Stuckey, Wayne; Hemminger, Carol

    1993-01-01

    Silverized Teflon (Ag/FEP) is a widely used passive thermal control material for space applications. The material has a very low alpha/e ratio (less than 0.1) for low operating temperatures and is fabricated with various FEP thicknesses (as the Teflon thickness increases, the emittance increases). It is low outgassing and, because of its flexibility, can be applied around complex, curved shapes. Ag/FEP has achieved multiyear lifetimes under a variety of exposure conditions. This has been demonstrated by the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), Solar Max, Spacecraft Charging at High Altitudes (SCATHA), and other flight experiments. Ag/FEP material has been held in place on spacecraft by a variety of methods: mechanical clamping, direct adhesive bonding of tapes and sheets, and by Velcro(TM) tape adhesively bonded to back surfaces. On LDEF, for example, 5-mil blankets held by Velcro(TM) and clamping were used for thermal control over 3- by 4-ft areas on each of 17 trays. Adhesively bonded 2- and 5-mil sheets were used on other LDEF experiments, both for thermal control and as tape to hold other thermal control blankets in place. Performance data over extended time periods are available from a number of flights. The observed effects on optical properties, mechanical properties, and surface chemistry will be summarized in this paper. This leads to a discussion of performance life estimates and other design lessons for Ag/FEP thermal control material.

  15. Computing characterizations of drugs for ion channels and receptors using Markov models

    CERN Document Server

    Tveito, Aslak

    2016-01-01

    Flow of ions through voltage gated channels can be represented theoretically using stochastic differential equations where the gating mechanism is represented by a Markov model. The flow through a channel can be manipulated using various drugs, and the effect of a given drug can be reflected by changing the Markov model. These lecture notes provide an accessible introduction to the mathematical methods needed to deal with these models. They emphasize the use of numerical methods and provide sufficient details for the reader to implement the models and thereby study the effect of various drugs. Examples in the text include stochastic calcium release from internal storage systems in cells, as well as stochastic models of the transmembrane potential. Well known Markov models are studied and a systematic approach to including the effect of mutations is presented. Lastly, the book shows how to derive the optimal properties of a theoretical model of a drug for a given mutation defined in terms of a Markov model.

  16. Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-09-01

    Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  17. Sentiment classification technology based on Markov logic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hui; Li, Zhigang; Yao, Chongchong; Zhang, Weizhe

    2016-07-01

    With diverse online media emerging, there is a growing concern of sentiment classification problem. At present, text sentiment classification mainly utilizes supervised machine learning methods, which feature certain domain dependency. On the basis of Markov logic networks (MLNs), this study proposed a cross-domain multi-task text sentiment classification method rooted in transfer learning. Through many-to-one knowledge transfer, labeled text sentiment classification, knowledge was successfully transferred into other domains, and the precision of the sentiment classification analysis in the text tendency domain was improved. The experimental results revealed the following: (1) the model based on a MLN demonstrated higher precision than the single individual learning plan model. (2) Multi-task transfer learning based on Markov logical networks could acquire more knowledge than self-domain learning. The cross-domain text sentiment classification model could significantly improve the precision and efficiency of text sentiment classification.

  18. Key achievements in elementary R&D on water-cooled solid breeder blanket for ITER test blanket module in JAERI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, S.; Enoeda, M.; Hatano, T.; Hirose, T.; Hayashi, K.; Tanigawa, H.; Ochiai, K.; Nishitani, T.; Tobita, K.; Akiba, M.

    2006-02-01

    This paper presents the significant progress made in the research and development (R&D) of key technologies on the water-cooled solid breeder blanket for the ITER test blanket modules in JAERI. Development of module fabrication technology, bonding technology of armours, measurement of thermo-mechanical properties of pebble beds, neutronics studies on a blanket module mockup and tritium release behaviour from a Li2TiO3 pebble bed under neutron-pulsed operation conditions are summarized. With the improvement of the heat treatment process for blanket module fabrication, a fine-grained microstructure of F82H can be obtained by homogenizing it at 1150 °C followed by normalizing it at 930 °C after the hot isostatic pressing process. Moreover, a promising bonding process for a tungsten armour and an F82H structural material was developed using a solid-state bonding method based on uniaxial hot compression without any artificial compliant layer. As a result of high heat flux tests of F82H first wall mockups, it has been confirmed that a fatigue lifetime correlation, which was developed for the ITER divertor, can be made applicable for the F82H first wall mockup. As for R&D on the breeder material, Li2TiO3, the effect of compression loads on effective thermal conductivity of pebble beds has been clarified for the Li2TiO3 pebble bed. The tritium breeding ratio of a simulated multi-layer blanket structure has successfully been measured using 14 MeV neutrons with an accuracy of 10%. The tritium release rate from the Li2TiO3 pebble has also been successfully measured with pulsed neutron irradiation, which simulates ITER operation.

  19. Key achievements in elementary R and D on water-cooled solid breeder blanket for ITER test blanket module in JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, S.; Enoeda, M.; Hatano, T.; Hirose, T.; Hayashi, K.; Tanigawa, H.; Ochiai, K.; Nishitani, T.; Tobita, K.; Akiba, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the significant progress made in the research and development (R and D) of key technologies on the water-cooled solid breeder blanket for the ITER test blanket modules in JAERI. Development of module fabrication technology, bonding technology of armours, measurement of thermo-mechanical properties of pebble beds, neutronics studies on a blanket module mockup and tritium release behaviour from a Li 2 TiO 3 pebble bed under neutron-pulsed operation conditions are summarized. With the improvement of the heat treatment process for blanket module fabrication, a fine-grained microstructure of F82H can be obtained by homogenizing it at 1150 0 C followed by normalizing it at 930 0 C after the hot isostatic pressing process. Moreover, a promising bonding process for a tungsten armour and an F82H structural material was developed using a solid-state bonding method based on uniaxial hot compression without any artificial compliant layer. As a result of high heat flux tests of F82H first wall mockups, it has been confirmed that a fatigue lifetime correlation, which was developed for the ITER divertor, can be made applicable for the F82H first wall mockup. As for R and D on the breeder material, Li 2 TiO 3 , the effect of compression loads on effective thermal conductivity of pebble beds has been clarified for the Li 2 TiO 3 pebble bed. The tritium breeding ratio of a simulated multi-layer blanket structure has successfully been measured using 14 MeV neutrons with an accuracy of 10%. The tritium release rate from the Li 2 TiO 3 pebble has also been successfully measured with pulsed neutron irradiation, which simulates ITER operation

  20. Key achievements in elementary R and Ds on water-cooled solid breeder blanket for ITER Test Blanket Module in JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, S.; Enoeda, M.; Hatano, T.; Hirose, T.; Tanigawa, H.; Tobita, K.; Akiba, M.; Hayashi, K.; Ochiai, K.; Nishitani, T.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents significant progress in research and development (R and D) of key elementary technologies on the water-cooled solid breeder blanket for the ITER test blanket modules (TBMs) in JAERI. Development of module fabrication technology, bonding technology of armors, measurement of thermo-mechanical properties of pebble beds, neutronics studies on a blanket module mockup, and tritium release behavior from Li 2 TiO 3 pebble bed under neutron pulsed operation condition are summarized. By the improvement of heat treatment process for blanket module fabrication, a fine-grained microstructure of F82H, can be obtained by homogenizing it at 1150 deg C followed by normalizing at 930 deg C after the Hot Isostatic Pressing (HIP) process. Moreover, a promising bonding process for a tungsten armor and an F82H structural material was developed by using a solid state bonding method based on uniaxial hot compression without any artificial compliant layer. As a result of high heat flux tests of F82H first wall mockups, it was found that the thermal fatigue lifetime of F82H can be predicted by using Manson-Coffin's law. As for R and Ds on a breeder material, Li 2 TiO 3 , effective thermal conductivity of Li 2 TiO 3 pebble was measured under compressive force simulating the ITER TBM environment. The increase in the effective thermal conductivity of the pebble bed was about 2.5 % at the compressive strain of 0.9 % at 400 deg C. Neutronic performance of the blanket module mockup has been carried out by the 14 MeV neutron irradiation. It was confirmed that the measured tritium production rate agreed with the calculated values within about 10% difference. Also, tritium release from a Li 2 TiO 3 pebble bed was measured under pulsed neutron irradiation conditions simulating the ITER operation. (author)

  1. Nuclear characteristics of D-D fusion reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakashima, Hideki; Ohta, Masao

    1978-01-01

    Fusion reactors operating on deuterium (D-D) cycle are considered to be of long range interest for their freedom from tritium breeding in the blanket. The present paper discusses the various possibilities of D-D fusion reactor blanket designs mainly from the standpoint of the nuclear characteristics. Neutronic and photonic calculations are based on presently available data to provide a basis of the optimal blanket design in D-D fusion reactors. It is found that it appears desirable to design a blanket with blanket/shield (BS) concept in D-D fusion reactors. The BS concept is designed to obtain reasonable shielding characteristics for superconducting magnet (SCM) by using shielding materials in the compact blanket. This concept will open the possibility of compact radiation shield design based on assured technology, and offer the advantage from the system economics point of view. (auth.)

  2. Neutronic optimization of solid breeder blankets for STARFIRE design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gohar, Y.; Abdou, M.A.

    1980-01-01

    Extensive neutronic tradeoff studies were carried out to define and optimize the neutronic performance of the different solid breeder options for the STARFIRE blanket design. A set of criteria were employed to select the potential blanket materials. The basic criteria include the neutronic performance, tritium-release characteristics, material compatibility, and chemical stability. Three blanket options were analyzed. The first option is based on separate zones for each basic blanket function where the neutron multiplier is kept in a separate zone. The second option is a heterogeneous blanket type with two tritium breeder zones. In the first zone the tritium breeder is assembled in a neutron multiplier matrix behind the first wall while the second zone has a neutron moderator matrix instead of the neutron multiplier. The third blanket option is similar to the second concept except the tritium breeder and the neutron multiplier form a homogeneous mixture

  3. A scaling analysis of a cat and mouse Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litvak, Nelli; Robert, Philippe

    Motivated by an original on-line page-ranking algorithm, starting from an arbitrary Markov chain $(C_n)$ on a discrete state space ${\\cal S}$, a Markov chain $(C_n,M_n)$ on the product space ${\\cal S}^2$, the cat and mouse Markov chain, is constructed. The first coordinate of this Markov chain

  4. Markov traces and II1 factors in conformal field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, J. de; Goeree, J.

    1991-01-01

    Using the duality equations of Moore and Seiberg we define for every primary field in a Rational Conformal Field Theory a proper Markov trace and hence a knot invariant. Next we define two nested algebras and show, using results of Ocneanu, how the position of the smaller algebra in the larger one reproduces part of the duality data. A new method for constructing Rational Conformal Field Theories is proposed. (orig.)

  5. The computation of stationary distributions of Markov chains through perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffery J. Hunter

    1991-01-01

    Full Text Available An algorithmic procedure for the determination of the stationary distribution of a finite, m-state, irreducible Markov chain, that does not require the use of methods for solving systems of linear equations, is presented. The technique is based upon a succession of m, rank one, perturbations of the trivial doubly stochastic matrix whose known steady state vector is updated at each stage to yield the required stationary probability vector.

  6. On Markov processes in the hadron-nuclear and nuclear-nuclear collisions at superhigh energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebedeva, A.A.; Rus'kin, V.I.

    2001-01-01

    In the article the possibility of the Markov processes use as simulation method for mean characteristics of hadron-nuclear and nucleus-nuclear collisions at superhigh energies is discussed. The simple (hadron-nuclear collisions) and non-simple (nucleus-nuclear collisions) non-uniform Markov process of output constant spectrum and absorption in a nucleon's nucleus-target with rapidity y are considered. The expression allowing to simulate the different collision modes were obtained

  7. Six types Monte Carlo for estimating the current unavailability of Markov system with dependent repair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Gang; Li Zhizhong

    2004-01-01

    Based on integral equaiton describing the life-history of Markov system, six types of estimators of the current unavailability of Markov system with dependent repair are propounded. Combining with the biased sampling of state transition time of system, six types of Monte Carlo for estimating the current unavailability are given. Two numerical examples are given to deal with the variances and efficiencies of the six types of Monte Carlo methods. (authors)

  8. Maximum Kolmogorov-Sinai Entropy Versus Minimum Mixing Time in Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihelich, M.; Dubrulle, B.; Paillard, D.; Kral, Q.; Faranda, D.

    2018-01-01

    We establish a link between the maximization of Kolmogorov Sinai entropy (KSE) and the minimization of the mixing time for general Markov chains. Since the maximisation of KSE is analytical and easier to compute in general than mixing time, this link provides a new faster method to approximate the minimum mixing time dynamics. It could be interesting in computer sciences and statistical physics, for computations that use random walks on graphs that can be represented as Markov chains.

  9. A review of fusion breeder blanket technology, part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, D.P.; Selander, W.N.; Townes, B.M.

    1985-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study of fusion breeder blanket technology. It reviews the role of the breeder blanket, the current understanding of the scientific and engineering bases of liquid metal and solid breeder blankets and the programs now underway internationally to resolve the uncertainities in current knowledge. In view of existing national expertise and experience, a solid breeder R and D program for Canada is recommended

  10. Investigation of heat treatment conditions of structural material for blanket fabrication process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Takanori; Suzuki, Satoshi; Akiba, Masato; Shiba, Kiyoyuki; Sawai, Tomotsugu; Jitsukawa, Shiro

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents recent results of thermal hysteresis effects on ceramic breeder blanket structural material. Reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAF) steel is the leading candidates for the first wall structural materials of breeding blankets. RAF steel demonstrates superior resistance to high dose neutron irradiation, because the steel has tempered martensite structure which contains the number of sink site for radiation defects. This microstructure obtained by two-step heat treatment, first is normalizing at temperature above 1200 K and the second is tempering at temperature below 1100 K. Recent study revealed the thermal hysteresis has significant impacts on the post-irradiation mechanical properties. The breeding blanket has complicated structure, which consists of tungsten armor and thin first wall with cooling pipe. The blanket fabrication requires some high temperature joining processes. Especially hot isostatic pressing (HIP) is examined as a near-net-shape fabrication process for this structure. The process consists of heating above 1300 K and isostatic pressing at the pressure above 150 MPa followed by tempering. Moreover ceramics pebbles are packed into blanket module and the module is to be seamed by welding followed by post weld heat treatment in the final assemble process. Therefore the final microstructural features of RAFs strongly depend on the blanket fabrication process. The objective of this work is to evaluate the effects of thermal hysteresis corresponding to blanket fabrication process on RAFs microstructure in order to establish appropriate blanket fabrication process. Japanese RAFs F82H (Fe-0.1C-8Cr-2W-0.2V-0.05Ta) was investigated by metallurgical method after isochronal heat treatment up to 1473 K simulating high temperature bonding process. Although F82H showed significant grain growth after conventional solid HIP conditions (1313 K x 2 hr.), this coarse grained microstructure was refined by the post HIP normalizing at

  11. Minimum thickness blanket-shield for fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karni, Y.; Greenspan, E.

    1989-01-01

    A lower bound on the minimum thickness fusion reactor blankets can be designed to have, if they are to breed 1.267 tritons per fusion neutron, is identified by performing a systematic nucleonic optimization of over a dozen different blanket concepts which use either Be, Li 17 Pb 83 , W or Zr for neutron multiplication. It is found that Be offers minimum thickness blankets; that the blanket and shield (B/S) thickness of Li 17 Pb 83 based blankets which are supplemented by Li 2 O and/or TiH 2 are comparable to the thickness of Be based B/S; that of the Be based blankets, the aqueous self-cooled one offers one of the most compact B/S; and that a number of blanket concepts might enable the design of B/S which is approximately 12 cm and 39 cm thinner than the B/S thickness of, respectively, conventional self-cooled Li 17 Pb 83 and Li blankets. Aqueous self-cooled tungsten blankets could be useful for experimental fusion devices provided they are designed to be heterogeneous. (orig.)

  12. Observation uncertainty in reversible Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzner, Philipp; Weber, Marcus; Schütte, Christof

    2010-09-01

    In many applications one is interested in finding a simplified model which captures the essential dynamical behavior of a real life process. If the essential dynamics can be assumed to be (approximately) memoryless then a reasonable choice for a model is a Markov model whose parameters are estimated by means of Bayesian inference from an observed time series. We propose an efficient Monte Carlo Markov chain framework to assess the uncertainty of the Markov model and related observables. The derived Gibbs sampler allows for sampling distributions of transition matrices subject to reversibility and/or sparsity constraints. The performance of the suggested sampling scheme is demonstrated and discussed for a variety of model examples. The uncertainty analysis of functions of the Markov model under investigation is discussed in application to the identification of conformations of the trialanine molecule via Robust Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+) .

  13. Generated dynamics of Markov and quantum processes

    CERN Document Server

    Janßen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This book presents Markov and quantum processes as two sides of a coin called generated stochastic processes. It deals with quantum processes as reversible stochastic processes generated by one-step unitary operators, while Markov processes are irreversible stochastic processes generated by one-step stochastic operators. The characteristic feature of quantum processes are oscillations, interference, lots of stationary states in bounded systems and possible asymptotic stationary scattering states in open systems, while the characteristic feature of Markov processes are relaxations to a single stationary state. Quantum processes apply to systems where all variables, that control reversibility, are taken as relevant variables, while Markov processes emerge when some of those variables cannot be followed and are thus irrelevant for the dynamic description. Their absence renders the dynamic irreversible. A further aim is to demonstrate that almost any subdiscipline of theoretical physics can conceptually be put in...

  14. Confluence reduction for Markov automata (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models

  15. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  16. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Ruth; Langrock, Roland

    2016-06-01

    We consider multi-state capture-recapture-recovery data where observed individuals are recorded in a set of possible discrete states. Traditionally, the Arnason-Schwarz model has been fitted to such data where the state process is modeled as a first-order Markov chain, though second-order models have also been proposed and fitted to data. However, low-order Markov models may not accurately represent the underlying biology. For example, specifying a (time-independent) first-order Markov process involves the assumption that the dwell time in each state (i.e., the duration of a stay in a given state) has a geometric distribution, and hence that the modal dwell time is one. Specifying time-dependent or higher-order processes provides additional flexibility, but at the expense of a potentially significant number of additional model parameters. We extend the Arnason-Schwarz model by specifying a semi-Markov model for the state process, where the dwell-time distribution is specified more generally, using, for example, a shifted Poisson or negative binomial distribution. A state expansion technique is applied in order to represent the resulting semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz model in terms of a simpler and computationally tractable hidden Markov model. Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models come with only a very modest increase in the number of parameters, yet permit a significantly more flexible state process. Model selection can be performed using standard procedures, and in particular via the use of information criteria. The semi-Markov approach allows for important biological inference to be drawn on the underlying state process, for example, on the times spent in the different states. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated in a simulation study, before being applied to real data corresponding to house finches where the states correspond to the presence or absence of conjunctivitis. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  17. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  18. Transition Effect Matrices and Quantum Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudder, Stan

    2009-06-01

    A transition effect matrix (TEM) is a quantum generalization of a classical stochastic matrix. By employing a TEM we obtain a quantum generalization of a classical Markov chain. We first discuss state and operator dynamics for a quantum Markov chain. We then consider various types of TEMs and vector states. In particular, we study invariant, equilibrium and singular vector states and investigate projective, bistochastic, invertible and unitary TEMs.

  19. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, T D [Center for the Ecological Study of Perception and Action, Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut, 406 Babbidge Road, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States)

    2008-07-18

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  20. Markov chains of nonlinear Markov processes and an application to a winner-takes-all model for social conformity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T D

    2008-01-01

    We discuss nonlinear Markov processes defined on discrete time points and discrete state spaces using Markov chains. In this context, special attention is paid to the distinction between linear and nonlinear Markov processes. We illustrate that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds for nonlinear Markov processes by a winner-takes-all model for social conformity. (fast track communication)

  1. Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Jadoon, Khan

    2016-08-08

    A substantial interpretation of electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements requires quantifying optimal model parameters and uncertainty of a nonlinear inverse problem. For this purpose, an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to assess multi-orientation and multi-offset EMI measurements in an agriculture field with non-saline and saline soil. In the MCMC simulations, posterior distribution was computed using Bayes rule. The electromagnetic forward model based on the full solution of Maxwell\\'s equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD mini-Explorer. The model parameters and uncertainty for the three-layered earth model are investigated by using synthetic data. Our results show that in the scenario of non-saline soil, the parameters of layer thickness are not well estimated as compared to layers electrical conductivity because layer thicknesses in the model exhibits a low sensitivity to the EMI measurements, and is hence difficult to resolve. Application of the proposed MCMC based inversion to the field measurements in a drip irrigation system demonstrate that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil, and provide useful insight about parameter uncertainty for the assessment of the model outputs.

  2. Simulation on a computer the cascade probabilistic functions and theirs relation with Markov's processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kupchishin, A.A.; Kupchishin, A.I.; Shmygaleva, T.A.

    2002-01-01

    Within framework of the cascade-probabilistic (CP) method the radiation and physical processes are studied, theirs relation with Markov's processes are found. The conclusion that CP-function for electrons, protons, alpha-particles and ions are describing by unhomogeneous Markov's chain is drawn. The algorithms are developed, the CP-functions calculations for charged particles, concentration of radiation defects in solids at ion irradiation are carried out as well. Tables for CPF different parameters and radiation defects concentration at charged particle interaction with solids are given. The book consists of the introduction and two chapters: (1) Cascade probabilistic function and the Markov's processes; (2) Radiation defects formation in solids as a part of the Markov's processes. The book is intended for specialists on the radiation defects mathematical stimulation, solid state physics, elementary particles physics and applied mathematics

  3. Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

  4. Pattern statistics on Markov chains and sensitivity to parameter estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuel Grégory

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: In order to compute pattern statistics in computational biology a Markov model is commonly used to take into account the sequence composition. Usually its parameter must be estimated. The aim of this paper is to determine how sensitive these statistics are to parameter estimation, and what are the consequences of this variability on pattern studies (finding the most over-represented words in a genome, the most significant common words to a set of sequences,.... Results: In the particular case where pattern statistics (overlap counting only computed through binomial approximations we use the delta-method to give an explicit expression of σ, the standard deviation of a pattern statistic. This result is validated using simulations and a simple pattern study is also considered. Conclusion: We establish that the use of high order Markov model could easily lead to major mistakes due to the high sensitivity of pattern statistics to parameter estimation.

  5. Systematic methodology for estimating direct capital costs for blanket tritium processing systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, P.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology developed for estimating the relative capital costs of blanket processing systems. The capital costs of the nine blanket concepts selected in the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study are presented and compared

  6. Beryllium research on FFHR molten salt blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terai, T.; Tanaka, S.; Sze, D.-K.

    2000-01-01

    Force-free helical reactor, FFHR, is a demo-relevant heliotron-type D-T fusion reactor based on the great amount of R and D results obtained in the LHD project. Since 1993, collaboration works have made great progress in design studies of FFHR with standing on the major advantage of current-less steady operation with no dangerous plasma disruptions. There are two types of reference designs, FFHR-1 and FFHR-2, where molten Flibe (LiF-BeF2) is utilized as tritium breeder and coolant. In this paper, we present the outline of FFHR blanket design and some related R and D topics focusing on Be utilization. Beryllium is used as a neutron multiplier in the design and Be pebbles are placed in the front part of the tritium breeding zone. In a Flibe blanket, HF (TF) generated due to nuclear transmutation will be a problem because of its corrosive property. Though nickel-based alloys are thought to be intact in such a corrosive environment, FFHR blanket design does not adopt the alloys because of their induced radioactivity. The present candidate materials for the structure are low-activated ferritic steel (JLF-1), V-4Cr-4Ti, etc. They are capable to be corroded by HF in the operation condition, and Be is expected to work as a reducing agent in the system as well. Whether Be pebbles placed in a Flibe flow can work well or not is a very important matter. From this point, Be solubility in Flibe, reaction rate of the Redox reaction with TF in the liquid and on the surface of Be pebbles under irradiation, flowing behavior of Flibe through a Be pebble bed, etc. should be investigated. In 1997, in order to establish more practical and new data bases for advanced design works, we started a collaboration work of R and D on blanket engineering, where the Be research above mentioned is included. Preliminary dipping-test of Be sheets and in-situ tritium release experiment from Flibe with Be sheets have got started. (orig.)

  7. Structural materials for fusion reactor blanket systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloom, E.E.; Smith, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    Consideration of the required functions of the blanket and the general chemical, mechanical, and physical properties of candidate tritium breeding materials, coolants, structural materials, etc., leads to acceptable or compatible combinations of materials. The presently favored candidate structural materials are the austenitic stainless steels, martensitic steels, and vanadium alloys. The characteristics of these alloy systems which limit their application and potential performance as well as approaches to alloy development aimed at improving performance (temperature capability and lifetime) will be described. Progress towards understanding and improving the performance of structural materials has been substantial. It is possible to develop materials with acceptable properties for fusion applications

  8. ITER solid breeder blanket materials database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billone, M.C.; Dienst, W.; Noda, K.; Roux, N.

    1993-11-01

    The databases for solid breeder ceramics (Li 2 ,O, Li 4 SiO 4 , Li 2 ZrO 3 and LiAlO 2 ) and beryllium multiplier material are critically reviewed and evaluated. Emphasis is placed on physical, thermal, mechanical, chemical stability/compatibility, tritium, and radiation stability properties which are needed to assess the performance of these materials in a fusion reactor environment. Correlations are selected for design analysis and compared to the database. Areas for future research and development in blanket materials technology are highlighted and prioritized

  9. Recent designs for advanced fusion reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sze, D.K.

    1994-06-01

    A series of reactor design studies based on the Tokamak configuration have been carried out under the direction of Professor Robert Conn of UCLA. They are called ARIES-1 through 4 and PULSAR 1 and 2. The key mission of these studies is to evaluate the attractiveness of fusion assuming different degrees of advancement in either physics or engineering development. Also, the requirements of engineering and physics systems for a pulsed reactor were evaluated by the PULSAR design studies. This paper discusses the directions and conclusions of the blanket and related engineering systems for those design studies

  10. Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrzoskowicz, Adam

    1993-11-01

    This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.

  11. APPLICATION OF HIDDEN MARKOV CHAINS IN QUALITY CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanife DEMIRALP

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The ever growing technological innovations and sophistication in industrial processes require adequate checks on quality. Thus, there is an increasing demand for simple and efficient quality control methods. In this regard the control charts stand out in simplicity and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a method of controlling quality based on the theory of hidden Markov chains. Based on samples drawn at different times from the production process, the method obtains the state of the process probabilistically. The main advantage of the method is that it requires no assumption on the normality of the process output.

  12. On the representability of complete genomes by multiple competing finite-context (Markov models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armando J Pinho

    Full Text Available A finite-context (Markov model of order k yields the probability distribution of the next symbol in a sequence of symbols, given the recent past up to depth k. Markov modeling has long been applied to DNA sequences, for example to find gene-coding regions. With the first studies came the discovery that DNA sequences are non-stationary: distinct regions require distinct model orders. Since then, Markov and hidden Markov models have been extensively used to describe the gene structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes. However, to our knowledge, a comprehensive study about the potential of Markov models to describe complete genomes is still lacking. We address this gap in this paper. Our approach relies on (i multiple competing Markov models of different orders (ii careful programming techniques that allow orders as large as sixteen (iii adequate inverted repeat handling (iv probability estimates suited to the wide range of context depths used. To measure how well a model fits the data at a particular position in the sequence we use the negative logarithm of the probability estimate at that position. The measure yields information profiles of the sequence, which are of independent interest. The average over the entire sequence, which amounts to the average number of bits per base needed to describe the sequence, is used as a global performance measure. Our main conclusion is that, from the probabilistic or information theoretic point of view and according to this performance measure, multiple competing Markov models explain entire genomes almost as well or even better than state-of-the-art DNA compression methods, such as XM, which rely on very different statistical models. This is surprising, because Markov models are local (short-range, contrasting with the statistical models underlying other methods, where the extensive data repetitions in DNA sequences is explored, and therefore have a non-local character.

  13. Prediction and generation of binary Markov processes: Can a finite-state fox catch a Markov mouse?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruebeck, Joshua B.; James, Ryan G.; Mahoney, John R.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the generative mechanism of a natural system is a vital component of the scientific method. Here, we investigate one of the fundamental steps toward this goal by presenting the minimal generator of an arbitrary binary Markov process. This is a class of processes whose predictive model is well known. Surprisingly, the generative model requires three distinct topologies for different regions of parameter space. We show that a previously proposed generator for a particular set of binary Markov processes is, in fact, not minimal. Our results shed the first quantitative light on the relative (minimal) costs of prediction and generation. We find, for instance, that the difference between prediction and generation is maximized when the process is approximately independently, identically distributed.

  14. A new blanket tritium recovery experiment with intense DT neutron source at JAEA/FNS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ochiai, Kentaro, E-mail: ochiai.kentaro@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Omotedate Obuchi, Rokkasho, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Edao, Yuki [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirane Shirakata, Tokai, Ibaraki 319-1195 (Japan); Hoshino, Tsuyoshi [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Omotedate Obuchi, Rokkasho, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Kawamura, Yoshinori [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 801-1 Mukoyama, Naka, Ibaraki 311-0193 (Japan); Ohta, Masayuki; Kwon, Saerom; Konno, Chikara [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirane Shirakata, Tokai, Ibaraki 319-1195 (Japan)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • For detail investigation of the tritium recovery performance on the fusion reactor blanket, we have started a new blanket tritium recovery experiment with ionization chamber at JAEA/FNS. • A new improved container was provided for the appropriate tritium measurement by IC and also utilized for the enhancement of TPR in the new container. The TPR was calculated with a calculation code MCNP5 and some typical nuclear data libraries and then the radioactivity of the tritium recovery with LSC corresponded with that of calculation. • The tritium release curves by the IC outputs are similar to those by the LSC output. However, it was indicated that the quantitative measurement by IC needed further improvement for the tritium recovery. - Abstract: We have performed the tritium release experiment on the fusion reactor blanket at JAEA/FNS since 2009, and then clarified the ratio of tritium release and the recovered tritium chemical form. In order to acquire the detailed tritium recovery performances, we have started a new blanket tritium recovery experiment with ionization chamber (IC) at JAEA/FNS. For the appropriate tritium measurement with IC, we improved the experimental container and carried out with an intense DT neutron source at JAEA/FNS. From our new experiment, the tritium recovery radioactivity from the LSC measurement corresponds with the calculation within 6%. However, it was pointed out that further improvement in the quantitative tritium measurement by IC method was needed.

  15. Acoustic contributions of a sound absorbing blanket placed in a double panel structure: absorption versus transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doutres, Olivier; Atalla, Noureddine

    2010-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to propose a simple tool to estimate the absorption vs. transmission loss contributions of a multilayered blanket unbounded in a double panel structure and thus guide its optimization. The normal incidence airborne sound transmission loss of the double panel structure, without structure-borne connections, is written in terms of three main contributions; (i) sound transmission loss of the panels, (ii) sound transmission loss of the blanket and (iii) sound absorption due to multiple reflections inside the cavity. The method is applied to four different blankets frequently used in automotive and aeronautic applications: a non-symmetric multilayer made of a screen in sandwich between two porous layers and three symmetric porous layers having different pore geometries. It is shown that the absorption behavior of the blanket controls the acoustic behavior of the treatment at low and medium frequencies and its transmission loss at high frequencies. Acoustic treatment having poor sound absorption behavior can affect the performance of the double panel structure.

  16. Two-phase-flow cooling concept for fusion reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bender, D.J.; Hoffman, M.A.

    1977-01-01

    The new two-phase heat transfer medium proposed is a mixture of potassium droplets and helium which permits blanket operation at hih temperature and low pressure, while maintaining acceptable pumping power requirements, coolant ducting size, and blanket structure fractions. A two-phase flow model is described. The helium pumping power and the primary heat transfer loop are discussed

  17. Overview of the TFTB lithium blanket module program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jassby, D.L.

    1986-01-01

    The Lithium Blanket Module (LBM) is an ∼ 80-cm 3 module, representative of a helium-cooled lithium oxide fusion reactor blanket module. This paper summarizes the design, development, and construction of the LBM, and indicates the present status of the LBM program

  18. Remote handling demonstration of ITER blanket module replacement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakudate, S.; Nakahira, M.; Oka, K.; Taguchi, K.; Obara, K.; Tada, E.; Shibanuma, K.; Tesini, A.; Haange, R.; Maisonnier, D.

    2001-01-01

    In ITER, the in-vessel components such as blanket are to be maintained or replaced remotely since they will be activated by 14 MeV neutrons, and a complete exchange of shielding blanket with breeding blanket is foreseen after the Basic Performance Phase. The blanket is segmented into about seven hundred modules to facilitate remote maintainability and allow individual module replacement. For this, the remote handing equipment for blanket maintenance is required to handle a module with a dead weight of about 4 tonne within a positioning accuracy of a few mm under intense gamma radiation. According to the ITER R and D program, a rail-mounted vehicle manipulator system was developed and the basic feasibility of this system was verified through prototype testing. Following this, development of full-scale remote handling equipment has been conducted as one of the ITER Seven R and D Projects aiming at a remote handling demonstration of the ITER blanket. As a result, the Blanket Test Platform (BTP) composed of the full-scale remote handling equipment has been completed and the first integrated performance test in March 1998 has shown that the fabricate remote handling equipment satisfies the main requirements of ITER blanket maintenance. (author)

  19. Accelerator driven heavy water blanket on circulating fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazaritsky, V.D.; Blagovolin, P.P.; Mladov, V.R.; Okhlopkov, M.L.; Batyaev, V.F.; Stepanov, N.V.; Seliverstov, V.V.

    1997-01-01

    A conceptual design of a heavy water blanket with circulating fuel for an accelerator driven transmutation system is described. The hybrid system consists of a high-current linear accelerator of protons and 4 targets, each placed inside a subcritical blanket

  20. Achievements of element technology development for breeding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enoeda, Mikio

    2005-03-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been performing the development of breeding blanket for fusion power plant, as a leading institute of the development of solid breeder blankets, according to the long-term R and D program of the blanket development established by the Fusion Council of Japan in 1999. This report is an overview of development plan, achievements of element technology development and future prospect and plan of the development of the solid breeding blanket in JAERI. In this report, the mission of the blanket development activity in JAERI, key issues and roadmap of the blanket development have been clarified. Then, achievements of the element technology development were summarized and showed that the development has progressed to enter the engineering testing phase. The specific development target and plan were clarified with bright prospect. Realization of the engineering test phase R and D and completion of ITER test blanket module testing program, with universities/NIFS cooperation, are most important steps in the development of breeding blanket of fusion power demonstration plant. (author)

  1. An assessment of the base blanket for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raffray, A.R.; Abdou, M.A.; Ying, A.

    1991-01-01

    Ideally, the ITER base blanket would provide the necessary tritium for the reactor to be self-sufficient during operation, while having minimal impact on the overall reactor cost, reliability and safety. A solid breeder blanket has been developed in CDA phase in an attempt to achieve such objectives. The reference solid breeder base blanket configurations at the end of the CDA phase has many attractive features such as a tritium breeding ratio (TBR) of 0.8--0.9 and a reasonably low tritium inventory. However, some concerns regarding the risk, cost and benefit of the base blanket have been raised. These include uncertainties associated with the solid breeder thermal control and the potentially high cost of the amount of Be used to achieve high TBR and to provide the necessary thermal barrier between the high temperature solid breeder and low temperature coolant. This work addresses these concerns. The basis for the selection of a breeding blanket is first discussed in light of the incremental risk, cost and benefits relative to a non-breeding blanket. Key issues associated with the CDA breeding blanket configurations are then analyzed. Finally, alternative schemes that could enhance the attractiveness and flexibility of a breeding blanket are explored

  2. Objectives and status of EUROfusion DEMO blanket studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boccaccini, L.V., E-mail: lorenzo.boccaccini@kit.edu [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (Germany); Aiello, G.; Aubert, J. [CEA-Saclay, DEN, DM2S, SEMT, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Bachmann, C. [EUROfusion, PPPT, Garching (Germany); Barrett, T. [CCFE, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Del Nevo, A. [ENEA CR Brasimone, 40032 Camugnano, BO (Italy); Demange, D. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (Germany); Forest, L. [CEA-Saclay, DEN, DM2S, SEMT, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Hernandez, F.; Norajitra, P. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (Germany); Porempovic, G. [Fuziotech Engineering Ltd (Hungary); Rapisarda, D. [CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Sardain, P. [CEA/IRFM, 13115 Saint-Paul-lès-Durance (France); Utili, M. [ENEA CR Brasimone, 40032 Camugnano, BO (Italy); Vala, L. [Centrum výzkumu Řež, 250 68 Husinec-Řež (Czech Republic)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • Short description of the new Breeding Blanket Project in the EUROfusion consortium for the design of the EU PPPT DEMO: objectives. • Presentation of the design approach used in the development of the Breeding Blanket design: requirements. • Breeding Blanket design; in particular the four blanket concepts included in the study are presented, recent results highlighted and the status discussed. • Auxiliary systems and related R&D programme: in particular the work areas addressed in the Project (Tritium Technology, Pb-Li and Solid Breeders Technology, First Wall Design and R&D, Manufacturing) are presented, recent results highlighted and the status discussed. - Abstract: The design of a DEMO reactor requires the design of a blanket system suitable of reliable T production and heat extraction for electricity production. In the frame of the EUROfusion Consortium activities, the Breeding Blanket Project has been constituted in 2014 with the goal to develop concepts of Breeding Blankets for the EU PPPT DEMO; this includes an integrated design and R&D programme with the goal to select after 2020 concepts on fusion plants for the engineering phase. The design activities are presently focalized around a pool of solid and liquid breeder blanket with helium, water and PbLi cooling. Development of tritium extraction and control technology, as well manufacturing and development of solid and PbLi breeders are part of the programme.

  3. 18 CFR 284.303 - OCS blanket certificates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false OCS blanket certificates. 284.303 Section 284.303 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY... Pipelines on Behalf of Others § 284.303 OCS blanket certificates. Every OCS pipeline [as that term is...

  4. Process Modeling for Energy Usage in “Smart House” System with a Help of Markov Discrete Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Kravets

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Method for evaluating economic efficiency of technical systems using discrete Markov chains modelling illustrated by the system of “Smart house”, consisting, for example, of the three independently functioning elements. Dynamic model of a random power consumption process in the form of a symmetrical state graph of heterogeneous discrete Markov chain is built. The corresponding mathematical model of a random Markov process of power consumption in the “smart house” system in recurrent matrix form is being developed. Technique of statistical determination of probability of random transition elements of the system and the corresponding to the transition probability matrix of the discrete inhomogeneous Markov chain are developed. Statistically determined random transitions of system elements power consumption and the corresponding distribution laws are introduced. The matrix of transition prices, expectations for the possible states of a system price transition and, eventually, the cost of Markov process of power consumption throughout the day.

  5. Heating performances of a IC in-blanket ring array

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosia, G., E-mail: gbosia@to.infn.it [Department of Physics, University of Turin (Italy); Ragona, R. [Laboratory for Plasma Physics-LPP-ERM/KMS, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-10

    An important limiting factor to the use of ICRF as candidate heating method in a commercial reactor is due to the evanescence of the fast wave in vacuum and in most of the SOL layer, imposing proximity of the launching structure to the plasma boundary and causing, at the highest power level, high RF standing and DC rectified voltages at the plasma periphery, with frequent voltage breakdowns and enhanced local wall loading. In a previous work [1] the concept for an Ion Cyclotron Heating & Current Drive array (and using a different wave guide technology, a Lower Hybrid array) based on the use of periodic ring structure, integrated in the reactor blanket first wall and operating at high input power and low power density, was introduced. Based on the above concept, the heating performance of such array operating on a commercial fusion reactor is estimated.

  6. Robust Dynamics and Control of a Partially Observed Markov Chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, R. J.; Malcolm, W. P.; Moore, J. P.

    2007-01-01

    In a seminal paper, Martin Clark (Communications Systems and Random Process Theory, Darlington, 1977, pp. 721-734, 1978) showed how the filtered dynamics giving the optimal estimate of a Markov chain observed in Gaussian noise can be expressed using an ordinary differential equation. These results offer substantial benefits in filtering and in control, often simplifying the analysis and an in some settings providing numerical benefits, see, for example Malcolm et al. (J. Appl. Math. Stoch. Anal., 2007, to appear).Clark's method uses a gauge transformation and, in effect, solves the Wonham-Zakai equation using variation of constants. In this article, we consider the optimal control of a partially observed Markov chain. This problem is discussed in Elliott et al. (Hidden Markov Models Estimation and Control, Applications of Mathematics Series, vol. 29, 1995). The innovation in our results is that the robust dynamics of Clark are used to compute forward in time dynamics for a simplified adjoint process. A stochastic minimum principle is established

  7. A Bayesian Markov geostatistical model for estimation of hydrogeological properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, L.; Gustafson, G.

    1996-01-01

    A geostatistical methodology based on Markov-chain analysis and Bayesian statistics was developed for probability estimations of hydrogeological and geological properties in the siting process of a nuclear waste repository. The probability estimates have practical use in decision-making on issues such as siting, investigation programs, and construction design. The methodology is nonparametric which makes it possible to handle information that does not exhibit standard statistical distributions, as is often the case for classified information. Data do not need to meet the requirements on additivity and normality as with the geostatistical methods based on regionalized variable theory, e.g., kriging. The methodology also has a formal way for incorporating professional judgments through the use of Bayesian statistics, which allows for updating of prior estimates to posterior probabilities each time new information becomes available. A Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model (BayMar) software was developed for implementation of the methodology in two and three dimensions. This paper gives (1) a theoretical description of the Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model; (2) a short description of the BayMar software; and (3) an example of application of the model for estimating the suitability for repository establishment with respect to the three parameters of lithology, hydraulic conductivity, and rock quality designation index (RQD) at 400--500 meters below ground surface in an area around the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southeastern Sweden

  8. Stability and perturbations of countable Markov maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Thomas; Munday, Sara; Sahlsten, Tuomas

    2018-04-01

    Let T and , , be countable Markov maps such that the branches of converge pointwise to the branches of T, as . We study the stability of various quantities measuring the singularity (dimension, Hölder exponent etc) of the topological conjugacy between and T when . This is a well-understood problem for maps with finitely-many branches, and the quantities are stable for small ɛ, that is, they converge to their expected values if . For the infinite branch case their stability might be expected to fail, but we prove that even in the infinite branch case the quantity is stable under some natural regularity assumptions on and T (under which, for instance, the Hölder exponent of fails to be stable). Our assumptions apply for example in the case of Gauss map, various Lüroth maps and accelerated Manneville-Pomeau maps when varying the parameter α. For the proof we introduce a mass transportation method from the cusp that allows us to exploit thermodynamical ideas from the finite branch case. Dedicated to the memory of Bernd O Stratmann

  9. Neutronic design for the TFTR lithium blanket module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, E.T.; Engholm, B.A.; Su, S.D.

    1981-01-01

    The preliminary design of a lithium blanket module (LBM) to be installed and tested in the TFTR has been performed under subcontract to PPPL and EPRI. The objectives of the LBM program are calculation and measurement of neutron fluences and tritium production in a breeding blanket module using state of art techniques, comparison of calculations with measurements, and acquisition of operational experience with a fusion reactor blanket module. The neutronic design of the LBM is one of the key areas of this program in which the LBM composition and geometry are optimized and the boundary material effects on the tritium production in the blanket module are explored. The concept of employing sintered Li/sub 2/O pellets in tubes is proposed for the blanket design

  10. MIT LMFBR blanket research project. Final summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driscoll, M.J.

    1983-08-01

    This is a final summary report on an experimental and analytical program for the investigation of LMFBR blanket characteristics carried out at MIT in the period 1969 to 1983. During this span of time, work was carried out on a wide range of subtasks, ranging from neutronic and photonic measurements in mockups of blankets using the Blanket Test Facility at the MIT Research Reactor, to analytic/numerical investigations of blanket design and economics. The main function of this report is to serve as a resource document which will permit ready reference to the more detailed topical reports and theses issued over the years on the various aspects of project activities. In addition, one aspect of work completed during the final year of the project, on doubly-heterogeneous blanket configurations, is documented for the record

  11. Axial blanket enrichment optimization of the NPP Krsko fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kromar, M.; Kurincic, B.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper optimal axial blanket enrichment of the NPP Krsko fuel is investigated. Since the optimization is dictated by economic categories that can significantly vary in time, two step approach is applied. In the first step simple relationship between the equivalent change in enrichment of axial blankets and central fuel region is established. The relationship is afterwards processed with economic criteria and constraints to obtain optimal axial blanket enrichment. In the analysis realistic NPP Krsko conditions are considered. Except for the fuel enrichment all other fuel characteristics are the same as in the fuel used in the few most recent cycles. A typical reload cycle after the plant power uprate is examined. Analysis has shown that the current blanket enrichment is close to the optimal. Blanket enrichment reduction results in an approximately 100 000 US$ savings per fuel cycle.(author)

  12. Neutron dosimetry for the TFTR Lithium-Blanket-Module program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harker, Y.D.; Tsang, F.Y.; Caffrey, A.J.; Homeyer, W.G.; Engholm, B.A.

    1981-01-01

    The Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) Lithium Blanket Module (LBM) program is a first-of-a-kind neutronics experiment involving a prototypical fusion reactor blanket module with a distributed neutron source from the plasma of the TFTR at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The objectives of the LBM program are: (1) to test the capabilities of neutron transport codes when applied to fusion test reactor blanket conditions, and (2) to obtain tritium breeding performance data on a typical design concept of a fusion-reactor blanket. This paper addresses the issues relative to the measurement of neutron fields in the LBM, presents the results of preliminary design studies concerning neutron measurements and also presents the results of blanket mockup experiments performed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  13. LMFBR Blanket Physics Project progress report No. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, I.A.; Driscoll, M.J.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Lanning, D.D.; Kaplan, I.

    1971-01-01

    This is the second annual report of an experimental program for the investigation of the neutronics of benchmark mock-ups of LMFBR blankets. Work was devoted primarily to measurements on Blanket Mock-Up No. 2, a simulation of a typical large LMFBR radial blanket and its steel reflector. Activation traverses and neutron spectra were measured in the blanket; calculations of activities and spectra were made for comparison with the measured data. The heterogeneous self-shielding effect for 238 U capture was found to be the most important factor affecting the comparison. Optimization and economic studies were made which indicate that the use of a high-albedo reflector material such as BeO or graphite may improve blanket neutronics and economics

  14. Self-cooled liquid-metal blanket concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malang, S.; Arheidt, K.; Barleon, L.

    1988-01-01

    A blanket concept for the Next European Torus (NET) where 83Pb-17Li serves both as breeder material and as coolant is described. The concept is based on the use of novel flow channel inserts for a decisive reduction of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) pressure drop and employs beryllium as neutron multiplier in order to avoid the need for breeding blankets at the inboard side of the torus. This study includes the design, neutronics, thermal hydraulics, stresses, MHDs, corrosion, tritium recovery, and safety of a self-cooled liquid-metal blanket. The results of the investigations indicate that the self-cooled blanket is an attractive alternative to other driver blanket concepts for NET and that it can be extrapolated to the conditions of a DEMO reactor

  15. Robust filtering and prediction for systems with embedded finite-state Markov-Chain dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate, E.B.

    1986-01-01

    This research developed new methodologies for the design of robust near-optimal filters/predictors for a class of system models that exhibit embedded finite-state Markov-chain dynamics. These methodologies are developed through the concepts and methods of stochastic model building (including time-series analysis), game theory, decision theory, and filtering/prediction for linear dynamic systems. The methodology is based on the relationship between the robustness of a class of time-series models and quantization which is applied to the time series as part of the model identification process. This relationship is exploited by utilizing the concept of an equivalence, through invariance of spectra, between the class of Markov-chain models and the class of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. This spectral equivalence permits a straightforward implementation of the desirable robust properties of the Markov-chain approximation in a class of models which may be applied in linear-recursive form in a linear Kalman filter/predictor structure. The linear filter/predictor structure is shown to provide asymptotically optimal estimates of states which represent one or more integrations of the Markov-chain state. The development of a new saddle-point theorem for a game based on the Markov-chain model structure gives rise to a technique for determining a worst case Markov-chain process, upon which a robust filter/predictor design if based

  16. Data-driven Markov models and their application in the evaluation of adverse events in radiotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abler, Daniel; Kanellopoulos, Vassiliki; Davies, Jim; Dosanjh, Manjit; Jena, Raj; Kirkby, Norman; Peach, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making processes in medicine rely increasingly on modelling and simulation techniques; they are especially useful when combining evidence from multiple sources. Markov models are frequently used to synthesize the available evidence for such simulation studies, by describing disease and treatment progress, as well as associated factors such as the treatment's effects on a patient's life and the costs to society. When the same decision problem is investigated by multiple stakeholders, differing modelling assumptions are often applied, making synthesis and interpretation of the results difficult. This paper proposes a standardized approach towards the creation of Markov models. It introduces the notion of ‘general Markov models’, providing a common definition of the Markov models that underlie many similar decision problems, and develops a language for their specification. We demonstrate the application of this language by developing a general Markov model for adverse event analysis in radiotherapy and argue that the proposed method can automate the creation of Markov models from existing data. The approach has the potential to support the radiotherapy community in conducting systematic analyses involving predictive modelling of existing and upcoming radiotherapy data. We expect it to facilitate the application of modelling techniques in medical decision problems beyond the field of radiotherapy, and to improve the comparability of their results. PMID:23824126

  17. Optimal choice of word length when comparing two Markov sequences using a χ 2-statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xin; Tang, Kujin; Ren, Jie; Waterman, Michael; Sun, Fengzhu

    2017-10-03

    Alignment-free sequence comparison using counts of word patterns (grams, k-tuples) has become an active research topic due to the large amount of sequence data from the new sequencing technologies. Genome sequences are frequently modelled by Markov chains and the likelihood ratio test or the corresponding approximate χ 2 -statistic has been suggested to compare two sequences. However, it is not known how to best choose the word length k in such studies. We develop an optimal strategy to choose k by maximizing the statistical power of detecting differences between two sequences. Let the orders of the Markov chains for the two sequences be r 1 and r 2 , respectively. We show through both simulations and theoretical studies that the optimal k= max(r 1 ,r 2 )+1 for both long sequences and next generation sequencing (NGS) read data. The orders of the Markov chains may be unknown and several methods have been developed to estimate the orders of Markov chains based on both long sequences and NGS reads. We study the power loss of the statistics when the estimated orders are used. It is shown that the power loss is minimal for some of the estimators of the orders of Markov chains. Our studies provide guidelines on choosing the optimal word length for the comparison of Markov sequences.

  18. Data-driven Markov models and their application in the evaluation of adverse events in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abler, Daniel; Kanellopoulos, Vassiliki; Dosanjh, Manjit; Davies, Jim; Peach, Ken; Jena, Raj; Kirkby, Norman

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making processes in medicine rely increasingly on modelling and simulation techniques; they are especially useful when combining evidence from multiple sources. Markov models are frequently used to synthesize the available evidence for such simulation studies, by describing disease and treatment progress, as well as associated factors such as the treatment's effects on a patient's life and the costs to society. When the same decision problem is investigated by multiple stakeholders, differing modelling assumptions are often applied, making synthesis and interpretation of the results difficult. This paper proposes a standardized approach towards the creation of Markov models. It introduces the notion of 'general Markov models', providing a common definition of the Markov models that underlie many similar decision problems, and develops a language for their specification. We demonstrate the application of this language by developing a general Markov model for adverse event analysis in radiotherapy and argue that the proposed method can automate the creation of Markov models from existing data. The approach has the potential to support the radiotherapy community in conducting systematic analyses involving predictive modelling of existing and upcoming radiotherapy data. We expect it to facilitate the application of modelling techniques in medical decision problems beyond the field of radiotherapy, and to improve the comparability of their results. (author)

  19. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  20. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different

  1. Performance Modeling of Communication Networks with Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Mo, Jeonghoon

    2010-01-01

    This book is an introduction to Markov chain modeling with applications to communication networks. It begins with a general introduction to performance modeling in Chapter 1 where we introduce different performance models. We then introduce basic ideas of Markov chain modeling: Markov property, discrete time Markov chain (DTMe and continuous time Markov chain (CTMe. We also discuss how to find the steady state distributions from these Markov chains and how they can be used to compute the system performance metric. The solution methodologies include a balance equation technique, limiting probab

  2. Weighted Markov chains for forecasting and analysis in Incidence of infectious diseases in jiangsu Province, China☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhihang; Bao, Changjun; Zhao, Yang; Yi, Honggang; Xia, Letian; Yu, Hao; Shen, Hongbing; Chen, Feng

    2010-01-01

    This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course. Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain, a method which is used to predict the future incidence state. This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable. It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal. Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province. In summation, this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain, specifically in the field of infection epidemiology. PMID:23554632

  3. Weighted Markov chains for forecasting and analysis in Incidence of infectious diseases in jiangsu Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhihang; Bao, Changjun; Zhao, Yang; Yi, Honggang; Xia, Letian; Yu, Hao; Shen, Hongbing; Chen, Feng

    2010-05-01

    This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course. Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain, a method which is used to predict the future incidence state. This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable. It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal. Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province. In summation, this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain, specifically in the field of infection epidemiology.

  4. Progress of R&D on water cooled ceramic breeder for ITER test blanket system and DEMO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawamura, Yoshinori, E-mail: kawamura.yoshinori@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 801-1 Mukoyama, Naka, Ibaraki 311-0193 (Japan); Tanigawa, Hisashi; Hirose, Takanori; Enoeda, Mikio [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 801-1 Mukoyama, Naka, Ibaraki 311-0193 (Japan); Sato, Satoshi [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirane Shirakata, Tokai, Ibaraki 319-1195 (Japan); Ochiai, Kentaro [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Omotedate Obuchi, Rokkasho, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Konno, Chikara; Edao, Yuki; Hayashi, Takumi [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirane Shirakata, Tokai, Ibaraki 319-1195 (Japan); Hoshino, Tsuyoshi; Nakamichi, Masaru; Tanigawa, Hiroyasu [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Omotedate Obuchi, Rokkasho, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Nishi, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Satoshi; Ezato, Koichiro; Seki, Yohji [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 801-1 Mukoyama, Naka, Ibaraki 311-0193 (Japan); Yamanishi, Toshihiko [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Omotedate Obuchi, Rokkasho, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • Thermo-hydraulic calculation in the TBM at the water ingress event has been done. • Shielding calculations for the ITER equatorial port #18 were conducted by using C-lite model. • Prototypic pebbles of Be{sub 17}Ti{sub 2} and Be{sub 12}V had a good oxidation property similar to Be{sub 12}Ti pebble. • Li rich Li{sub 2}TiO{sub 3} pebbles were successfully fabricated using the emulsion method by controlling sintering atmosphere. • New tritium production/recovery experiments at FNS have been started by using ionization chamber as on-line gas monitor. - Abstract: The development of a water cooled ceramic breeder (WCCB) test blanket module (TBM) is being performed as one of the most important steps toward DEMO blanket in Japan. For the TBM testing and development of DEMO blanket, R&D has been performed on the module fabrication technology, breeder and multiplier pebble fabrication technology, tritium production rate evaluation, as well as structural and safety design activities. The fabrication of full-scale first wall, side walls, breeder pebble bed box and back wall was completed, and assembly of TBM with box structure was successfully achieved. Development of advanced breeder and multiplier pebbles for higher chemical stability was continued for future DEMO blanket application. From the view point of TBM test result evaluation and DEMO blanket performance design, the development of the blanket tritium transport simulation technology, investigation of the TBM neutron measurement technology and the evaluation of the tritium production and recovery test using D-T neutron in the fusion neutron source (FNS) facility has been performed. This paper provides an overview of the recent achievements of the development of the WCCB Blanket in Japan.

  5. Application of Box-Wilson experimental design method for 2,4-dinitrotoluene treatment in a sequential anaerobic migrating blanket reactor (AMBR)/aerobic completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuscu, Ozlem Selcuk; Sponza, Delia Teresa

    2011-01-01

    A sequential aerobic completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) following the anaerobic migrating blanket reactor (AMBR) was used to treat a synthetic wastewater containing 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT). A Box-Wilson statistical experiment design was used to determine the effects of 2,4-DNT and the hydraulic retention times (HRTs) on 2,4-DNT and COD removal efficiencies in the AMBR reactor. The 2,4-DNT concentrations in the feed (0-280 mg/L) and the HRT (0.5-10 days) were considered as the independent variables while the 2,4-DNT and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiencies, total and methane gas productions, methane gas percentage, pH, total volatile fatty acid (TVFA) and total volatile fatty acid/bicarbonate alkalinity (TVFA/Bic.Alk.) ratio were considered as the objective functions in the Box-Wilson statistical experiment design in the AMBR. The predicted data for the parameters given above were determined from the response functions by regression analysis of the experimental data and exhibited excellent agreement with the experimental results. The optimum HRT which gave the maximum COD (97.00%) and 2,4-DNT removal (99.90%) efficiencies was between 5 and 10 days at influent 2,4-DNT concentrations 1-280 mg/L in the AMBR. The aerobic CSTR was used for removals of residual COD remaining from the AMBR, and for metabolites of 2,4-DNT. The maximum COD removal efficiency was 99% at an HRT of 1.89 days at a 2,4-DNT concentration of 239 mg/L in the aerobic CSTR. It was found that 280 mg/L 2,4-DNT transformed to 2,4-diaminotoluene (2,4-DAT) via 2-amino-4-nitrotoluene (2-A-4-NT) and 4-amino-2-nitrotoluene (4-A-2-NT) in the AMBR. The maximum 2,4-DAT removal was 82% at an HRT of 8.61 days in the aerobic CSTR. The maximum total COD and 2,4-DNT removal efficiencies were 99.00% and 99.99%, respectively, at an influent 2,4-DNT concentration of 239 mg/L and at 1.89 days of HRT in the sequential AMBR/CSTR.

  6. Application of Box-Wilson experimental design method for 2,4-dinitrotoluene treatment in a sequential anaerobic migrating blanket reactor (AMBR)/aerobic completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuscu, Ozlem Selcuk, E-mail: oselcuk@mmf.sdu.edu.tr [Department of Environmental Engineering, Engineering and Architecture Faculty, Sueleyman Demirel University, Cuenuer Campus, 32260 Isparta (Turkey); Sponza, Delia Teresa [Dokuz Eyluel University, Engineering Faculty, Environmental Engineering Department, Buca Kaynaklar campus, Izmir (Turkey)

    2011-03-15

    A sequential aerobic completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) following the anaerobic migrating blanket reactor (AMBR) was used to treat a synthetic wastewater containing 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT). A Box-Wilson statistical experiment design was used to determine the effects of 2,4-DNT and the hydraulic retention times (HRTs) on 2,4-DNT and COD removal efficiencies in the AMBR reactor. The 2,4-DNT concentrations in the feed (0-280 mg/L) and the HRT (0.5-10 days) were considered as the independent variables while the 2,4-DNT and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiencies, total and methane gas productions, methane gas percentage, pH, total volatile fatty acid (TVFA) and total volatile fatty acid/bicarbonate alkalinity (TVFA/Bic.Alk.) ratio were considered as the objective functions in the Box-Wilson statistical experiment design in the AMBR. The predicted data for the parameters given above were determined from the response functions by regression analysis of the experimental data and exhibited excellent agreement with the experimental results. The optimum HRT which gave the maximum COD (97.00%) and 2,4-DNT removal (99.90%) efficiencies was between 5 and 10 days at influent 2,4-DNT concentrations 1-280 mg/L in the AMBR. The aerobic CSTR was used for removals of residual COD remaining from the AMBR, and for metabolites of 2,4-DNT. The maximum COD removal efficiency was 99% at an HRT of 1.89 days at a 2,4-DNT concentration of 239 mg/L in the aerobic CSTR. It was found that 280 mg/L 2,4-DNT transformed to 2,4-diaminotoluene (2,4-DAT) via 2-amino-4-nitrotoluene (2-A-4-NT) and 4-amino-2-nitrotoluene (4-A-2-NT) in the AMBR. The maximum 2,4-DAT removal was 82% at an HRT of 8.61 days in the aerobic CSTR. The maximum total COD and 2,4-DNT removal efficiencies were 99.00% and 99.99%, respectively, at an influent 2,4-DNT concentration of 239 mg/L and at 1.89 days of HRT in the sequential AMBR/CSTR.

  7. Application of Box-Wilson experimental design method for 2,4-dinitrotoluene treatment in a sequential anaerobic migrating blanket reactor (AMBR)/aerobic completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuşçu, Özlem Selçuk; Sponza, Delia Teresa

    2011-03-15

    A sequential aerobic completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) following the anaerobic migrating blanket reactor (AMBR) was used to treat a synthetic wastewater containing 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT). A Box-Wilson statistical experiment design was used to determine the effects of 2,4-DNT and the hydraulic retention times (HRTs) on 2,4-DNT and COD removal efficiencies in the AMBR reactor. The 2,4-DNT concentrations in the feed (0-280 mg/L) and the HRT (0.5-10 days) were considered as the independent variables while the 2,4-DNT and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiencies, total and methane gas productions, methane gas percentage, pH, total volatile fatty acid (TVFA) and total volatile fatty acid/bicarbonate alkalinity (TVFA/Bic.Alk.) ratio were considered as the objective functions in the Box-Wilson statistical experiment design in the AMBR. The predicted data for the parameters given above were determined from the response functions by regression analysis of the experimental data and exhibited excellent agreement with the experimental results. The optimum HRT which gave the maximum COD (97.00%) and 2,4-DNT removal (99.90%) efficiencies was between 5 and 10 days at influent 2,4-DNT concentrations 1-280 mg/L in the AMBR. The aerobic CSTR was used for removals of residual COD remaining from the AMBR, and for metabolites of 2,4-DNT. The maximum COD removal efficiency was 99% at an HRT of 1.89 days at a 2,4-DNT concentration of 239 mg/L in the aerobic CSTR. It was found that 280 mg/L 2,4-DNT transformed to 2,4-diaminotoluene (2,4-DAT) via 2-amino-4-nitrotoluene (2-A-4-NT) and 4-amino-2-nitrotoluene (4-A-2-NT) in the AMBR. The maximum 2,4-DAT removal was 82% at an HRT of 8.61 days in the aerobic CSTR. The maximum total COD and 2,4-DNT removal efficiencies were 99.00% and 99.99%, respectively, at an influent 2,4-DNT concentration of 239 mg/L and at 1.89 days of HRT in the sequential AMBR/CSTR. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Status of EC solid breeder blanket designs and R and D for demo fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proust, E.; Anzidei, L.; Moons, F.

    1994-01-01

    Within the European Community Fusion Technology Program two solid breeder blankets for a DEMO reactor are being developed. The two blankets have various features in common: helium as coolant and as tritium purge gas, the martensitic steel MANET as structural material and beryllium as neutron multiplier. The configurations of the two blankets are however different: in the B.I.T. (Breeder Inside Tube) concept the breeder materials are LiAlO 2 or Li 2 ZrO 3 in the form of annular pellets contained in tubes surrounded by beryllium blocks, the coolant helium being outside the tubes, whereas in the B.O.T. (Breeder out of Tube) the breeder and multiplier material are Li 4 SiO 4 and beryllium pebbles forming a mixed bed placed outside the tubes containing the coolant helium. The main critical issues for both blankets are the behavior of the breeder ceramics and of beryllium under irradiation and the tritium control. Other issues are the low temperature irradiation induced embrittlement of MANET, the mechanical effects caused by major plasma disruptions, and safety and reliability. The R and D work concentrate on these issues. The development of martensitic steels including MANET is part of a separate program. Breeder ceramics and beryllium irradiations have been so far performed for conditions which do not cover the peak values injected in the DEMO blankets. Further irradiations in thermal reactors and in fast reactors, especially for beryllium, are required. An effective tritium control requires the development of permeation barriers and/or of methods of oxidation of the tritium in the main helium cooling systems. First promising results have been obtained also in field of mechanical effects from plasma disruptions and safety and reliability, however further work is required in the reliability field and to validate the codes for the calculations of the plasma disruption effects. (authors). 8 figs., 2 tabs., 53 refs

  9. Preliminary accident analysis of Loss of Off-Site Power and In-Box LOCA for the CFETR helium cooled solid breeder blanket

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lian, Qiang; Cui, Shijie [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049 (China); Shaanxi Key Lab. of Advanced Nuclear Energy and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049 (China); Tian, Wenxi, E-mail: wxtian@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049 (China); Shaanxi Key Lab. of Advanced Nuclear Energy and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049 (China); Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Dalin; Su, G.H. [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049 (China); Shaanxi Key Lab. of Advanced Nuclear Energy and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049 (China)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • The CFETR HCSB blanket has been investigated using RELAP5. • Loss of Off-Site Power is investigated. • The parametric analyses during In-Box LOCA are investigated. • The HCSB blanket for CFETR is designed with sufficient decay heat removal capability. - Abstract: As one of three candidate tritium breeding blanket concepts for Chinese Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR), a conceptual structure of helium cooled solid breeder (HCSB) blanket was recently proposed. In this paper, the preliminary thermal-hydraulic and safety analyses of the typical outboard equatorial blanket module (No.12) have been carried out using RELAP5/Mod3.4 code. Two design basis accidents are investigated based on the steady-state initialization, including Loss of Off-Site Power and In-Box Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). The differences between circulator coast down and circulator rotor locked under Loss of Off-Site Power are compared. Regarding the In-Box LOCA, the influences of different break sizes and locations are thoroughly analyzed based on a relatively accurate modeling method of the heat structures in sub-modules. The analysis results show that the blanket and the combined helium cooling system (HCS) are designed with sufficient decay heat removal capability for both accidents, which can preliminarily verify the feasibility of the conceptual design. The research work can also provide an important reference for parameter optimization of the blanket and its HCS in the next stage.

  10. JAERI/U.S. collaborative program on fusion blanket neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Masayuki; Mori, Takamasa; Kosako, Kazuaki; Oyama, Yukio; Nakamura, Tomoo

    1989-10-01

    Phase IIa and IIb experiments of JAERI/U.S. Collaborative Program on Fusion Blanket Neutronics have been performed using the FNS facility at JAERI. The phase IIa experimental systems consist of the Li 2 O test region, the rotating neutron target and the Li 2 CO 3 container. In phase IIb, a beryllium layer is added to the inner wall to investigate a multiplier effect. Measured parameters are source characteristics by a foil activation method and spectrum measurements using both NE-213 and proton recoil counters. The measurements inside the Li 2 O region included tritium production rates, reaction rate by foil activation and neutron spectrum measurements. Analysis for these parameters was performed by using two dimensional discrete ordinate codes DOT3.5 and DOT-DD, and a Monte Carlo code MORSE-DD. The nuclear data used were based on JENDL3/PR1 and PR2. ENDF/B-IV, V and the FNS file were used as activation cross sections. The configurations analysed for the test region were a reference, a beryllium front and a beryllium sandwiched systems in phase IIa, and a reference and a beryllium front with first wall systems in phase IIb. This document describes the results of analysis and comparison between the calculations and the measurements. The prediction accuracy of key parameters in a fusion reactor blanket are examined. The tritium production rates can be well predicted in the reference systems but are fairly underestimated in the system with a beryllium multiplier. Details of experiments and the experimental techniques are described separately in the another report. (author)

  11. U.S. technical report for the ITER blanket/shield: A. blanket: Topical report, July 1990--November 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-01-01

    Three solid-breeder water-cooled blanket concepts have been developed for ITER based on a multilayer configuration. The primary difference among the concepts is in the fabricated form of breeder and multiplier. All the concepts have beryllium for neutron multiplication and solid-breeder temperature control. The blanket design does not use helium gaps or insulator material to control the solid breeder temperature. Lithium oxide (Li{sub 2}O) and lithium zirconate (Li{sub 2}ZrO{sub 3}) are the primary and the backup breeder materials, respectively. The lithium-6 enrichment is 95%. The use of high lithium-6 enrichment reduces the solid breeder volume required in the blanket and consequently the total tritium inventory in the solid breeder material. Also, it increases the blanket capability to accommodate power variation. The multilayer blanket configuration can accommodate up to a factor of two change in the neutron wall loading without violating the different design guidelines. The blanket material forms are sintered products and packed bed of small pebbles. The first concept has a sintered product material (blocks) for both the beryllium multiplier and the solid breeder. The second concept, the common ITER blanket, uses a packed bed breeder and beryllium blocks. The last concept is similar to the first except for the first and the last beryllium zones. Two small layers of beryllium pebbles are located behind the first wall and the back of the last beryllium zone to reduce the total inventory of the beryllium material and to improve the blanket performance. The design philosophy adopted for the blanket is to produce the necessary tritium required for the ITER operation and to operate at power reactor conditions as much as possible. Also, the reliability and the safety aspects of the blanket are enhanced by using low-pressure water coolant and the separation of the tritium purge flow from the coolant system by several barriers.

  12. U.S. technical report for the ITER blanket/shield: A. blanket: Topical report, July 1990--November 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Three solid-breeder water-cooled blanket concepts have been developed for ITER based on a multilayer configuration. The primary difference among the concepts is in the fabricated form of breeder and multiplier. All the concepts have beryllium for neutron multiplication and solid-breeder temperature control. The blanket design does not use helium gaps or insulator material to control the solid breeder temperature. Lithium oxide (Li 2 O) and lithium zirconate (Li 2 ZrO 3 ) are the primary and the backup breeder materials, respectively. The lithium-6 enrichment is 95%. The use of high lithium-6 enrichment reduces the solid breeder volume required in the blanket and consequently the total tritium inventory in the solid breeder material. Also, it increases the blanket capability to accommodate power variation. The multilayer blanket configuration can accommodate up to a factor of two change in the neutron wall loading without violating the different design guidelines. The blanket material forms are sintered products and packed bed of small pebbles. The first concept has a sintered product material (blocks) for both the beryllium multiplier and the solid breeder. The second concept, the common ITER blanket, uses a packed bed breeder and beryllium blocks. The last concept is similar to the first except for the first and the last beryllium zones. Two small layers of beryllium pebbles are located behind the first wall and the back of the last beryllium zone to reduce the total inventory of the beryllium material and to improve the blanket performance. The design philosophy adopted for the blanket is to produce the necessary tritium required for the ITER operation and to operate at power reactor conditions as much as possible. Also, the reliability and the safety aspects of the blanket are enhanced by using low-pressure water coolant and the separation of the tritium purge flow from the coolant system by several barriers

  13. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  14. Markov and mixed models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard

    This thesis deals with mathematical and statistical models with focus on applications in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling. These models are today an important aspect of the drug development in the pharmaceutical industry and continued research in statistical methodology within...... or uncontrollable factors in an individual. Modelling using SDEs also provides new tools for estimation of unknown inputs to a system and is illustrated with an application to estimation of insulin secretion rates in diabetic patients. Models for the eect of a drug is a broader area since drugs may affect...... for non-parametric estimation of Markov processes are proposed to give a detailed description of the sleep process during the night. Statistically the Markov models considered for sleep states are closely related to the PK models based on SDEs as both models share the Markov property. When the models...

  15. Consistent Estimation of Partition Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús E. García

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Partition Markov Model characterizes the process by a partition L of the state space, where the elements in each part of L share the same transition probability to an arbitrary element in the alphabet. This model aims to answer the following questions: what is the minimal number of parameters needed to specify a Markov chain and how to estimate these parameters. In order to answer these questions, we build a consistent strategy for model selection which consist of: giving a size n realization of the process, finding a model within the Partition Markov class, with a minimal number of parts to represent the process law. From the strategy, we derive a measure that establishes a metric in the state space. In addition, we show that if the law of the process is Markovian, then, eventually, when n goes to infinity, L will be retrieved. We show an application to model internet navigation patterns.

  16. Stability Analysis of Networked Control Systems with Random Time Delays and Packet Dropouts Modeled by Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qiu

    2013-01-01

    unified Markov jump model. The random time delays and packet dropouts existed in feedback communication link are modeled by two independent Markov chains; the resulting closed-loop system is described by a new Markovian jump linear system (MJLS with Markov delays. Sufficient conditions of the stochastic stability for NCSs is obtained by constructing a novel Lyapunov functional, and the mode-dependent output feedback controller design method is presented based on linear matrix inequality (LMI technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. Prediction degradation trend of nuclear equipment based on GM (1, 1)-Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Liming; Zhao Xinwen; Cai Qi; Wu Guangjiang

    2010-01-01

    The degradation trend prediction results are important references for nuclear equipment in-service inspection and maintenance plan. But it is difficult to predict the nuclear equipment degradation trend accurately by the traditional statistical probability due to the small samples, lack of degradation data and the wavy degradation locus. Therefore, a method of equipment degradation trend prediction based on GM (1, l)-Markov chain was proposed in this paper. The method which makes use of the advantages of both GM (1, 1) method and Markov chain could improve the prediction precision of nuclear equipment degradation trend. The paper collected degradation data as samples and accurately predicted the degradation trend of canned motor pump. Compared with the prediction results by GM (1, 1) method, the prediction precision by GM (1, l)-Markov chain is more accurate. (authors)

  18. Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboofazeli, Mohammad; Moussavi, Zahra

    2009-01-01

    Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.

  19. Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aboofazeli, Mohammad [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: umaboofa@cc.umanitoba.ca; Moussavi, Zahra [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: mousavi@ee.umanitoba.ca

    2009-01-30

    Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.

  20. Neutronic study of fusion reactor blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barre, F.

    1983-06-01

    The problem of effective regeneration is a crucial issue for the fusion reactor, specially for the power reactor because of the conflicting requirements of heat removal and tritium breeding. For that, calculations are performed to evaluate blanket materials. Precise techniques are herein developed to improve the accuracy of the tritium production and the neutron and gamma transport calculations. Many configurations are studied with realistic breeder, structure, and coolant proportions. Accuracy of the results are evaluated from the sensitivity theory and uncertainty study using covariance matrices. At the end of this work, we presented the needs of nuclear data for fusion reactors and we give some advices for improving our knowledge of these data [fr

  1. Neutronic study of fusion reactor blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barre, F.

    1984-02-01

    The problem of effective regeneration is a crucial issue for the fusion reactor, specially for the power reactor because of the conflicting requirements of heat removal and tritium breeding. For that, calculations are performed to evaluate blanket materials. Precise techniques are herein developed to improve the accuracy of the tritium production and the neutron and gamma transport calculations. Many configurations are studied with realistic breeder, structure, and coolant proportions. Accuracy of the results are evaluated from the sensitivity theory and uncertainty study using covariance matricies. At the end of this work, we presented the needs of nuclear data for fusion reactors and we give some advices for improving our knowledge of these data [fr

  2. Development of advanced blanket materials for solid breeder blanket of fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishitsuka, E.

    2002-01-01

    Advanced solid breeding blanket design in the DEMO reactor requires the tritium breeder and neutron multiplier that can withstand the high temperature and high dose of neutron irradiation. Therefore, the development of such advanced blanket materials is indispensable. In this paper, the cooperation activities among JAERI, universities and industries in Japan on the development of these advanced materials are reported. Advanced tritium breeding material to prevent the grain growth in high temperature had to be developed because the tritium release behavior degraded by the grain growth. As one of such materials, TiO 2 -doped Li 2 TiO 3 has been studied, and TiO 2 -doped Li 2 TiO 3 pebbles was successfully fabricated. For the advanced neutron multiplier, the beryllium intermetallic compounds that have high melting point and good chemical stability have been studied. Some characterization of Be 12 Ti was studied. The pebble fabrication study for Be 12 Ti was also performed and Be 12 Ti pebbles were successfully fabricated. From these activities, the bright prospect to realize the DEMO blanket by the application of TiO 2 -doped Li 2 TiO 3 and beryllium intermetallic compounds was obtained. (author)

  3. Markov decision processes in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Sigaud, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a mathematical framework for modeling sequential decision problems under uncertainty as well as Reinforcement Learning problems. Written by experts in the field, this book provides a global view of current research using MDPs in Artificial Intelligence. It starts with an introductory presentation of the fundamental aspects of MDPs (planning in MDPs, Reinforcement Learning, Partially Observable MDPs, Markov games and the use of non-classical criteria). Then it presents more advanced research trends in the domain and gives some concrete examples using illustr

  4. Markov bridges, bisection and variance reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Hobolth, Asger

    . In this paper we firstly consider the problem of generating sample paths from a continuous-time Markov chain conditioned on the endpoints using a new algorithm based on the idea of bisection. Secondly we study the potential of the bisection algorithm for variance reduction. In particular, examples are presented......Time-continuous Markov jump processes is a popular modelling tool in disciplines ranging from computational finance and operations research to human genetics and genomics. The data is often sampled at discrete points in time, and it can be useful to simulate sample paths between the datapoints...

  5. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Emil Banning; Møller, Jan K.; Morales, Juan Miguel

    2017-01-01

    . Specifically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is defined by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip, and is justified due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is fitted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  6. Inhomogeneous Markov Models for Describing Driving Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Morales González, Juan Miguel

    . Specically, an inhomogeneous Markov model that captures the diurnal variation in the use of a vehicle is presented. The model is dened by the time-varying probabilities of starting and ending a trip and is justied due to the uncertainty associated with the use of the vehicle. The model is tted to data...... collected from the actual utilization of a vehicle. Inhomogeneous Markov models imply a large number of parameters. The number of parameters in the proposed model is reduced using B-splines....

  7. Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

  8. Markov processes an introduction for physical scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Gillespie, Daniel T

    1991-01-01

    Markov process theory is basically an extension of ordinary calculus to accommodate functions whos time evolutions are not entirely deterministic. It is a subject that is becoming increasingly important for many fields of science. This book develops the single-variable theory of both continuous and jump Markov processes in a way that should appeal especially to physicists and chemists at the senior and graduate level.Key Features* A self-contained, prgamatic exposition of the needed elements of random variable theory* Logically integrated derviations of the Chapman-Kolmogorov e

  9. Design analyses of self-cooled liquid metal blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gohar, Y.

    1986-12-01

    A trade-off study of liquid metal self-cooled blankets was carried out to define the performance of these blankets and to determine the potential to operate at the maximum possible values of the performance parameters. The main parameters considered during the course of the study were the tritium breeding ratio (TBR), the blanket energy multiplication factor, the energy fraction lost to the shield, the lithium-6 enrichment in the breeder material, the total blanket thickness, the reflector material selection, and the compositions of the different blanket zones. Also, a study was carried out to assess the impact of different reactor design choices on the reactor performance parameters. The design choices include the impurity control system (limiter or divertor), the material choice for the limiter, the elimination of tritium breeding from the inboard section of tokamak reactors, and the coolant choice for the nonbreeding inboard blanket. In addition, tritium breeding benchmark calculations were performed using different transport codes and nuclear data libraries. The importance of the TBR in the blanket design motivated the benchmark calculations

  10. Heat transfer problems in gas-cooled solid blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fillo, J.A.; Powell, J.R.

    1976-01-01

    In all fusion reactors using the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle, a large fraction approximately 80 percent of the fusion energy will be released as approximately 14 MeV neutrons which must be slowed down in a relatively thick blanket surrounding the plasma, thereby, converting their kinetic energy to high temperature heat which can be continuously removed by a coolant stream and converted in part to electricity in a conventional power turbine. Because of the primary goal of achieving minimum radioactivity, to date Brookhaven blanket concepts have been restricted to the use of some form of solid lithium, with inert gas-cooling and in some design cases, water-cooling of the shell structure. Aluminum and graphite have been identified as very promising structural materials for fusion blankets, and conceptual designs based on these materials have been made. Depending on the thermal loading on the ''first'' wall which surrounds the plasma as well as blanket design, heat transfer problems may be noticeably different in gas-cooled solid blankets. Approaches to solution of heat removal problems as well as explanation of: (a) the after-heat problems in blankets; (b) tritium breeding in solids; and (c) materials selection for radiation shields relative to the minimum activity blanket efforts at Brookhaven are discussed

  11. Neutronics analysis for aqueous self-cooled fusion reactor blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varsamis, G.; Embrechts, M.J.; Jaffa, R.; Steiner, D.; Deutsch, L.; Gierszewski, P.

    1986-06-01

    The tritium breeding performance of several Aqueous Self-Cooled Blanket (ASCB) configurations for fusion reactors has been evaluated. The ASCB concept employs small amounts of lithium compound dissolved in light or heavy water to serve as both coolant and breeding medium. The inherent simplicity of this concept allows the development of blankets with minimal technological risk. The tritium breeding performance of the ASCB concept is a critical issue for this family of blankets. Contrary to conventional blanket designs there will be a significant contribution to the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) in the water coolant/breeder of duct shields, and the 3-D TBR will therefore be similar to the 1-D TBR. The tritium breeding performance of an ASCB for a MARS-like-tandem reactor and an ASCB based breeding-shield for the Next European Torus (NET) are assessed. Two design options for the MARS-like blanket are discussed. One design employs a vanadium first wall, and zircaloy for the structural material. The trade-offs between light water and heavy water cooling options for this zircaloy blanket are discussed. The second design option for MARS relies on the use of a vanadium alloy as the stuctural material, and heavy water as the coolant. It is demonstrated that both design options lead to low-activation blankets that allow class C burial. The breeder-shield for NET consists of a water-cooled stainless steel shield

  12. Preliminary study on lithium-salt aqueous solution blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Hiroshi; Naruse, Yuji; Yamaoka, Mitsuaki; Ohara, Atsushi; Ono, Kiyoshi; Kobayashi, Shigetada.

    1992-06-01

    Aqueous solution blanket using lithium salts such as LiNO 3 and LiOH have been studied in the US-TIBER program and ITER conceptual design activity. In the JAERI/LANL collaboration program for the joint operation of TSTA (Tritium Systems Test Assembly), preliminary design work of blanket tritium system for lithium ceramic blanket, aqueous solution blanket and liquid metal blanket, have been performed to investigate technical feasibility of tritium demonstration tests using the TSTA. Detail study of the aqueous solution blanket concept have not been performed in the Japanese fusion program, so that this study was carried out to investigate features of its concept and to evaluated its technical problems. The following are the major items studied in the present work: (i) Neutronics of tritium breeding ratio and shielding performance Lithium concentration, Li-60 enrichment, beryllium or lead, composition of structural material/beryllium/solution, heavy water, different lithium-salts (ii) Physicochemical properties of salts Solubility, corrosion characteristics and compatibility with structural materials, radiolysis (iii) Estimation of radiolysis in ITER aqueous solution blanket. (author)

  13. Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its ... the earth from the clouds. The usual ... Rainfall modelling and ... Markov Models have become popular tools ... environment sciences, University of Jos, plateau state,.

  14. Extending Markov Automata with State and Action Rewards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guck, Dennis; Timmer, Mark; Blom, Stefan; Bertrand, N.; Bortolussi, L.

    This presentation introduces the Markov Reward Automaton (MRA), an extension of the Markov automaton that allows the modelling of systems incorporating rewards in addition to nondeterminism, discrete probabilistic choice and continuous stochastic timing. Our models support both rewards that are

  15. Markov models for digraph panel data : Monte Carlo-based derivative estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweinberger, Michael; Snijders, Tom A. B.

    2007-01-01

    A parametric, continuous-time Markov model for digraph panel data is considered. The parameter is estimated by the method of moments. A convenient method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the moment estimator relies on the delta method, requiring the Jacobian matrix-that is, the

  16. A Cost-Effective Smoothed Multigrid with Modified Neighborhood-Based Aggregation for Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao-Li Shen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Smoothed aggregation multigrid method is considered for computing stationary distributions of Markov chains. A judgement which determines whether to implement the whole aggregation procedure is proposed. Through this strategy, a large amount of time in the aggregation procedure is saved without affecting the convergence behavior. Besides this, we explain the shortage and irrationality of the Neighborhood-Based aggregation which is commonly used in multigrid methods. Then a modified version is presented to remedy and improve it. Numerical experiments on some typical Markov chain problems are reported to illustrate the performance of these methods.

  17. A computational procedure for coupled electromagnetic-structural dynamic problems and its application to a fusion reactor blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, T.

    1993-09-01

    A method is presented in order to couple quasistationary electromagnetics and the dynamics of structure and fluid. This method allows to compute forces, strains and stresses in structures subjected to transient magnetic fields. An important application was to determine the dynamic loading of the self-cooled liquid metal blanket during a plasma distruption. (orig./HP) [de

  18. A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Gagliardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

  19. Overview of EU activities on DEMO liquid metal breeder blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giancarli, L.; Proust, E.; Malang, S.; Reimann, J.; Perujo, A.

    1994-01-01

    The present paper gives an overview of both design and experimental activities within the European Union (EU) concerning the development of liquid metal breeder blankets for DEMO. After several years of studies on breeding blankets, two blanket concepts are presently considered, both using the eutectic Pb-17Li: the dual-coolant concept and the water-cooled concept. The analysis of such concepts has permitted to identify the experimental areas where further data are required. Tritium control and MHD-issues are, at present, the activities on which is devoted the greatest effort within the EU. (authors). 4 figs., 4 tabs., 39 refs

  20. Availability analysis of the ITER blanket remote handling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Takahito; Noguchi, Yuto; Takeda, Nobukazu; Kakudate, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    The ITER blanket remote handling system (BRHS) is required to replace 440 blanket first wall panels in a two-year maintenance period. To investigate this capability, an availability analysis of the system was carried out. Following the analysis procedure defined by the ITER organization, the availability analysis consists of a functional analysis and a reliability block diagram analysis. In addition, three measures to improve availability were implemented: procurement of spare parts, in-vessel replacement of cameras, and simultaneous replacement of umbilical cables. The availability analysis confirmed those measures improve the availability and capability of the BRHS to replace 440 blanket first wall panels in two years. (author)

  1. Molten salt cooling/17Li-83Pb breeding blanket concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sze, D.K.; Cheng, E.T.

    1985-02-01

    A description of a fusion breeding blanket concept using draw salt coolant and static 17 Li- 83 Pb is presented. 17 Li- 83 Pb has high breeding capability and low tritium solubility. Draw salt operates at low pressure and is inert to water. Corrosion, MHD, and tritium containment problems associated with the MARS design are alleviated because of the use of a static LiPb blanket. Blanket tritium recovery is by permeation toward the plasma. A direct contact steam generator is proposed to eliminate some generic problems associated with a tube shell steam generator

  2. Conceptual design of blanket structures for fusion experimental reactor (FER)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-03-01

    Conceptual design study for in-vessel components including tritium breeding blanket of FER has been carried out. The objective of this study is to obtain the engineering and technological data for selecting the reactor concept and for its construction by investigating fully and broadly. The design work covers in-vessel components (such as tritium breeding blanket, first wall, shield, divertor and blanket test module), remote handling system and tritium system. The designs of those components and systems are accomplished in consideration of their accomodation to whole reactor system and problems for furthur study are clarified. (author)

  3. Demonstration Tokamak Hybrid Reactor (DTHR) blanket design study, December 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This work represents only the second iteration of the conceptual design of a DTHR blanket; consequently, a number of issues important to a detailed blanket design have not yet been evaluated. The most critical issues identified are those of two-phase flow maldistribution, flow instabilities, flow stratification for horizontal radial inflow of boiling water, fuel rod vibrations, corrosion of clad and structural materials by high quality steam, fretting and cyclic loads. Approaches to minimizing these problems are discussed and experimental testing with flow mock-ups is recommended. These implications on a commercial blanket design are discussed and critical data needs are identified

  4. A Li-particulate blanket concept for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, C.P.C.; Cheng, E.T.; Creedon, R.L.

    1989-01-01

    The Li-particulate blanket design concept the authors proposed for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) uses a dilute suspension of fine solid breeder particles in a carrier gas as the combined coolant and lithium breeder stream. This blanket concept has a simple mechanical and hydraulic configuration, low inventory of bred tritium, and simple tritium extraction system. Existing technology can be used to implement the design for ITER. The concept has the potential to be a highly reliable shield and blanket design for ITER with relatively low development and capital costs

  5. Cassette blanket and vacuum building: key elements in fusion reactor maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, R.W.

    1977-01-01

    The integration of two concepts important to fusion power reactors is discussed. The first concept is the vacuum building which improves upon the current fusion reactor designs. The second concept, the use of the cassette blanket within the vacuum building environment, introduces four major improvements in blanket design: cassette blanket module, zoning concept, rectangular blanket concept, and internal tritium recovery

  6. Methodology for accident analyses of fusion breeder blankets and its application to helium-cooled pebble bed blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panayotov, Dobromir; Grief, Andrew; Merrill, Brad J.; Humrickhouse, Paul; Trow, Martin; Dillistone, Michael; Murgatroyd, Julian T.; Owen, Simon; Poitevin, Yves; Peers, Karen; Lyons, Alex; Heaton, Adam; Scott, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Test Blanket Systems (TBS) DEMO breeding blankets (BB) safety demonstration. • Comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena. • Development of accident analysis specifications (AAS) via the use of phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT). • PIRT application to identify required physical models for BB accidents analysis, code assessment and selection. • Development of MELCOR and RELAP5 codes TBS models. • Qualification of the models via comparison with finite element calculations, code-tocode comparisons, and sensitivity studies. - Abstract: ‘Fusion for Energy’ (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. The methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCPB TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.

  7. Methodology for accident analyses of fusion breeder blankets and its application to helium-cooled pebble bed blanket

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Panayotov, Dobromir, E-mail: dobromir.panayotov@f4e.europa.eu [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla, 2, Torres Diagonal Litoral B3, Barcelona E-08019 (Spain); Grief, Andrew [Amec Foster Wheeler, Booths Park, Chelford Road, Knutsford WA16 8QZ, Cheshire (United Kingdom); Merrill, Brad J.; Humrickhouse, Paul [Idaho National Laboratory, PO Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Trow, Martin; Dillistone, Michael; Murgatroyd, Julian T.; Owen, Simon [Amec Foster Wheeler, Booths Park, Chelford Road, Knutsford WA16 8QZ, Cheshire (United Kingdom); Poitevin, Yves [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla, 2, Torres Diagonal Litoral B3, Barcelona E-08019 (Spain); Peers, Karen; Lyons, Alex; Heaton, Adam; Scott, Richard [Amec Foster Wheeler, Booths Park, Chelford Road, Knutsford WA16 8QZ, Cheshire (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Test Blanket Systems (TBS) DEMO breeding blankets (BB) safety demonstration. • Comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena. • Development of accident analysis specifications (AAS) via the use of phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT). • PIRT application to identify required physical models for BB accidents analysis, code assessment and selection. • Development of MELCOR and RELAP5 codes TBS models. • Qualification of the models via comparison with finite element calculations, code-tocode comparisons, and sensitivity studies. - Abstract: ‘Fusion for Energy’ (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. The methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCPB TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.

  8. Perturbation theory for Markov chains via Wasserstein distance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rudolf, Daniel; Schweizer, Nikolaus

    2017-01-01

    Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question of how small differences in the transition probabilities of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the nth step distributions of two Markov chains

  9. Planning Tunnel Construction Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan P. Vargas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Tunnels, drifts, drives, and other types of underground excavation are very common in mining as well as in the construction of roads, railways, dams, and other civil engineering projects. Planning is essential to the success of tunnel excavation, and construction time is one of the most important factors to be taken into account. This paper proposes a simulation algorithm based on a stochastic numerical method, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method, that can provide the best estimate of the opening excavation times for the classic method of drilling and blasting. Taking account of technical considerations that affect the tunnel excavation cycle, the simulation is developed through a computational algorithm. Using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the unit operations involved in the underground excavation cycle are identified and assigned probability distributions that, with random number input, make it possible to simulate the total excavation time. The results obtained with this method are compared with a real case of tunneling excavation. By incorporating variability in the planning, it is possible to determine with greater certainty the ranges over which the execution times of the unit operations fluctuate. In addition, the financial risks associated with planning errors can be reduced and the exploitation of resources maximized.

  10. Markov Random Fields on Triangle Meshes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Vedrana; Aanæs, Henrik; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a novel anisotropic smoothing scheme based on Markov Random Fields (MRF). Our scheme is formulated as two coupled processes. A vertex process is used to smooth the mesh by displacing the vertices according to a MRF smoothness prior, while an independent edge process label...

  11. Renewal characterization of Markov modulated Poisson processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel F. Neuts

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available A Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP M(t defined on a Markov chain J(t is a pure jump process where jumps of M(t occur according to a Poisson process with intensity λi whenever the Markov chain J(t is in state i. M(t is called strongly renewal (SR if M(t is a renewal process for an arbitrary initial probability vector of J(t with full support on P={i:λi>0}. M(t is called weakly renewal (WR if there exists an initial probability vector of J(t such that the resulting MMPP is a renewal process. The purpose of this paper is to develop general characterization theorems for the class SR and some sufficiency theorems for the class WR in terms of the first passage times of the bivariate Markov chain [J(t,M(t]. Relevance to the lumpability of J(t is also studied.

  12. Bayesian analysis for reversible Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diaconis, P.; Rolles, S.W.W.

    2006-01-01

    We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from Pólya’s urn. We give closed form normalizing constants, a simple

  13. Bisimulation and Simulation Relations for Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baier, Christel; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.; Wolf, Verena; Aceto, L.; Gordon, A.

    2006-01-01

    Formal notions of bisimulation and simulation relation play a central role for any kind of process algebra. This short paper sketches the main concepts for bisimulation and simulation relations for probabilistic systems, modelled by discrete- or continuous-time Markov chains.

  14. Hidden Markov Models for Human Genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Yves

    1997-01-01

    We analyse the sequential structure of human genomic DNA by hidden Markov models. We apply models of widely different design: conventional left-right constructs and models with a built-in periodic architecture. The models are trained on segments of DNA sequences extracted such that they cover com...

  15. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  16. Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Z.; Pistorius, M.

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a

  17. Revisiting Weak Simulation for Substochastic Markov Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, David N.; Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun

    2013-01-01

    of the logic PCTL\\x, and its completeness was conjectured. We revisit this result and show that soundness does not hold in general, but only for Markov chains without divergence. It is refuted for some systems with substochastic distributions. Moreover, we provide a counterexample to completeness...

  18. Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Crack Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard

    1991-01-01

    propagation process can be described by a discrete space Markov theory. The model is applicable to deterministic as well as to random loading. Once the model parameters for a given material have been determined, the results can be used for any structure as soon as the geometrical function is known....

  19. Multi-dimensional quasitoeplitz Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander N. Dudin

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with multi-dimensional quasitoeplitz Markov chains. We establish a sufficient equilibrium condition and derive a functional matrix equation for the corresponding vector-generating function, whose solution is given algorithmically. The results are demonstrated in the form of examples and applications in queues with BMAP-input, which operate in synchronous random environment.

  20. Markov chains with quasitoeplitz transition matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander M. Dukhovny

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a class of Markov chains which are frequently encountered in various applications (e.g. queueing systems, dams and inventories with feedback. Generating functions of transient and steady state probabilities are found by solving a special Riemann boundary value problem on the unit circle. A criterion of ergodicity is established.