WorldWideScience

Sample records for market based models

  1. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanidou, E [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany); Zschischang, E [HSH Nord Bank, Portfolio Mngmt. and Inv., Martensdamm 6, D-24103 Kiel (Germany); Stauffer, D [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Koeln (Germany); Lux, T [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany)

    2007-03-15

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we

  2. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanidou, E.; Zschischang, E.; Stauffer, D.; Lux, T.

    2007-03-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  3. Agent-based models of financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanidou, E; Zschischang, E; Stauffer, D; Lux, T

    2007-01-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  4. Market Segmentation Using Bayesian Model Based Clustering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hattum, P.

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation deals with two basic problems in marketing, that are market segmentation, which is the grouping of persons who share common aspects, and market targeting, which is focusing your marketing efforts on one or more attractive market segments. For the grouping of persons who share

  5. NETWORK BASED BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION TARGETING THE BOP MARKET

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Jacob; Kroghstrup Nielsen, Martin; Lindgren, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Through innovation of products, process and business models targeting the needs of 4 billion poor people living at "the base of pyramid" (BoP) (Prahalad & Hart 2002) in developing countries the private sector can actively support poverty alleviation and at the same time reach new untouched market....... - A market is estimated a value of 5.3 trillion US$ (Hammond, Kramer, Tran, Kratz 2007). A number of researchers has dealt with the BoP - market potential and not least tried to understand how to penetrate this apparent blue ocean. Two distinct lines of thought when targeting BoP markets in developing...... & Halme 2008). The market and customer line - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoPline - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoP market through product adaptation selling soap in smaller packages (Hart & Christensen 2002, Prahalad 2006). Based on the case study...

  6. Marketing for a Web-Based Master's Degree Program in Light of Marketing Mix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Cheng-Chang

    2012-01-01

    The marketing mix model was applied with a focus on Web media to re-strategize a Web-based Master's program in a southern state university in U.S. The program's existing marketing strategy was examined using the four components of the model: product, price, place, and promotion, in hopes to repackage the program (product) to prospective students…

  7. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

  8. An auction game model for pool-based electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gan, Deqiang; Wang, Jianquan; Bourcier, Donald V.

    2005-01-01

    A single-period auction game model for analyzing strategic behavior in pool-based electricity markets is introduced in the paper. We study the Nash equilibrium in a pure strategy sense of such games. First an equilibrium existence lemma is proved. Equilibrium characterization under tight capacity constraints is provided. Then it is demonstrated that an auction game does not possess a pure strategy Nash equilibrium under a wide range of market conditions. The paper provides a characterization of equilibrium under weak capacity constraints. We apply the introduced results to analyze market power indices presented in our earlier work and in related reports. Applications to actual market analysis, as well as limitations of the introduced model are provided. (author)

  9. CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Burtnyak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

  10. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia; Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom

    2010-01-01

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  11. Vertical integration and market power. A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration. (author)

  12. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W., E-mail: dbunn@london.ed [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  13. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C; Hyoseop Lee,; Wonsuck Lee,

    2011-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents

  14. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

  15. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

  16. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  17. Equation-based model for the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O C; Atman, A P F; de Magalhães, A R Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  18. Equation-based model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  19. The export marketing-financing based on forfeiting model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Pero B.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The contemporary business finance have a lot of modalities of involving in the international market with different options. Twenty years ago, financial aspects and insurance of export transactions especially in international practice have been successfully solved by application of forfeiting model. The forfeiting is a medium-term transaction mainly which basic subject is right to buy claim with maturity from 6 to 60 months, and mainly related to drafts. In essence, this transaction mean the purchase of securities in order to cover claims with maturity in future related to delivery of goods and services, mainly of export character without the owner's right to demand payment. The right to claim is based both on a draft (which is the most frequent subject of forfeiting because of its simple form and long tradition and on any other financial instrument. As a rule, the exporter is owner and seller of claim. He accept the draft as a cover for payment of exported goods or services in order to speed-up the collection, and transferring the risk of collection on forfeiter (any person buying a securities without the owner's right to demand payment from previous owner. As a compensation, he receive the reduced value of security and providing a necessary liquid assets immediately in that way. Buying a securities without the owner's right to demand payment from previous owner (exporter, the forfeiter accept all risks from exporter related to the collection in certain transaction.

  20. Modeling investor sentiment and overconfidence in an agent-based stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lovric, M.; Kaymak, U.; Spronk, J.

    2010-01-01

    Agent-based stock markets as bottom-up models of financial markets allow us to study the link between individual investor behavior and aggregate market phenomena, and as such are a useful tool for investigating the implications of behavioral finance and investor psychology. In this paper we want to

  1. Simulating GenCo bidding strategies in electricity markets with an agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Thimmapuram, Prakash R.; Yamakado, Malo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we use an agent-based simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze market power in electricity markets. We focus on the effect of congestion management on the ability of generating companies (GenCos) to raise prices beyond competitive levels. An 11-node test power system is used to compare a market design based on locational marginal pricing with a market design that uses system marginal pricing and congestion management by counter trading. Bidding strategies based on both physical and economic withholding are compared to a base case with production cost bidding. The results show that unilateral market power is exercised under both pricing mechanisms. However, the largest changes in consumer costs and GenCo profits due to strategic bidding occur under the locational marginal pricing scheme. The analysis also illustrates that agent-based modeling can contribute important insights into the complex interactions between the participants in transmission-constrained electricity markets. (Author)

  2. A novel model for product bundling and direct marketing in e-commerce based on market segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Beheshtian-Ardakani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, companies offer product bundles with special discounts in order to sell more products. However, it is important to note that customers show different levels of loyalties to companies, and each segment of the market has unique features, which influences the customers’ buying patterns. The primary purpose of this paper is to propose a novel model for product bundling in e-commerce websites by using market segmentation variables and customer loyalty analysis. RFM model is employed to calculate customer loyalty. Subsequently, the customers are grouped based on their loyalty levels. Each group is then divided into different segments based on market segmentation variables. The product bundles are determined for each market segment via clustering algorithms. Apriori algorithm is also used to determine the association rules for each product bundle. Classification models are applied in order to determine which product bundle should be recommended to each customer. The results demonstrate that the silhouette coefficient, support, confidence, and accuracy values are higher when both customer loyalty level and market segmentation variables are used in product bundling. Accordingly, the proposed model increases the chance of success in direct marketing and recommending product bundles to customers.

  3. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C

    2011-04-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents who interact with each other and actively participate in an economically well-defined marketplace. Parameters of the model are optimized using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. The quantitative prediction capabilities of the proposed model are examined through data reproducibility using past data from the U.S. and Korean wireless service markets. Finally, we investigate a disruptive market event, namely the introduction of the iPhone into the U.S. in 2007 and the resulting changes in the modeling parameters. We predict and analyze the impacts of the introduction of the iPhone into the Korean wireless service market assuming a release date of 2Q09 based on earlier data. © 2011 IEEE.

  4. Public relation based model of integrated marketing communications

    OpenAIRE

    Naumovska, Ljupka; Blazeska, Daliborka

    2016-01-01

    The marketing communications industry and theory are facing rapid changes in accordance with global business and society fluctuations. Global and local market conditions are constantly varying and thus creating hardly predictable environment. The most implemented tool for marketing communications – advertising, is losing its power for effective communications; customers are becoming over-advertised and resistant to traditional advertising stimuli. Advertising, as one-way communica...

  5. PUBLIC RELATION BASED MODEL OF INTEGRATED MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljupka Naumovska

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The marketing communications industry and theory are facing rapid changes in accordance with global business and society fluctuations. Global and local market conditions are constantly varying and thus creating hardly predictable environment. The most implemented tool for marketing communications – advertising, is losing its power for effective communications; customers are becoming over-advertised and resistant to traditional advertising stimuli. Advertising, as one-way communication mass media tool is no longer effective as previously, hence can no longer fulfill the role of leading marketing mix tool. Therefore, the necessity for altering the structure of the traditional marketing communication mix elements, emphasizing the role of other elements but advertising, with more personalized and interactive functions. One method for improvement of marketing communication’s mix efficiency is by reallocation the leading role of advertising with public relations. The practice of public relations tools can ensure higher level of transparency in internal and external organizational communications and thus can certify more effective marketing communication. The theoretical research is supported with qualitative research of business segment by conducting a detailed interview for the marketing communication practice.

  6. A study of the spreading scheme for viral marketing based on a complex network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianmei; Yao, Canzhong; Ma, Weicheng; Chen, Guanrong

    2010-02-01

    Buzzword-based viral marketing, known also as digital word-of-mouth marketing, is a marketing mode attached to some carriers on the Internet, which can rapidly copy marketing information at a low cost. Viral marketing actually uses a pre-existing social network where, however, the scale of the pre-existing network is believed to be so large and so random, so that its theoretical analysis is intractable and unmanageable. There are very few reports in the literature on how to design a spreading scheme for viral marketing on real social networks according to the traditional marketing theory or the relatively new network marketing theory. Complex network theory provides a new model for the study of large-scale complex systems, using the latest developments of graph theory and computing techniques. From this perspective, the present paper extends the complex network theory and modeling into the research of general viral marketing and develops a specific spreading scheme for viral marking and an approach to design the scheme based on a real complex network on the QQ instant messaging system. This approach is shown to be rather universal and can be further extended to the design of various spreading schemes for viral marketing based on different instant messaging systems.

  7. How Feedback Can Improve Managerial Evaluations of Model-based Marketing Decision Support Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    U. Kayande (Ujwal); A. de Bruyn (Arnoud); G.L. Lilien (Gary); A. Rangaswamy (Arvind); G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMarketing managers often provide much poorer evaluations of model-based marketing decision support systems (MDSSs) than are warranted by the objective performance of those systems. We show that a reason for this discrepant evaluation may be that MDSSs are often not designed to help users

  8. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

    2012-05-29

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

  9. Time delay and profit accumulation effect on a mine-based uranium market clearing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auzans, Aris; Teder, Allan; Tkaczyk, Alan H.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Improved version of a mine-based uranium market clearing model for the front-end uranium market and enrichment industries is proposed. • A profit accumulation algorithm and time delay function provides more realistic uranium mine decision making process. • Operational decision delay increased uranium market price volatility. - Abstract: The mining industry faces a number of challenges such as market volatility, investment safety, issues surrounding employment and productivity. Therefore, computer simulations are highly relevant in order to reduce financial risks associated with these challenges. In the mining industry, each firm must compete with other mines and the basic target is profit maximization. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the world uranium (U) supply by simulating financial management challenges faced by an individual U mine that are caused by a variety of regulation issues. In this paper front-end nuclear fuel cycle tool is used to simulate market conditions and the effects they have on the stability of U supply. An individual U mine’s exit or entry in the market might cause changes in the U supply side which can increase or decrease the market price. In this paper we offer a more advanced version of a mine-based U market clearing model. The existing U market model incorporates the market of primary U from uranium mines with secondary uranium (depleted uranium DU), enriched uranium (HEU) and enrichment services. In the model each uranium mine acts as an independent agent that is able to make operational decisions based on the market price. This paper introduces a more realistic decision making algorithm of individual U mine that adds constraints to production decisions. The authors added an accumulated profit model, which allows for the profits accumulated to cover any possible future economic losses and the time-delay algorithm to simulate delayed process of reopening a U mine. The U market simulation covers time period 2010

  10. Time delay and profit accumulation effect on a mine-based uranium market clearing model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auzans, Aris [Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Ostwaldi 1, EE-50411 Tartu (Estonia); Teder, Allan [School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu, Narva mnt 4, EE-51009 Tartu (Estonia); Tkaczyk, Alan H., E-mail: alan@ut.ee [Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Ostwaldi 1, EE-50411 Tartu (Estonia)

    2016-12-15

    Highlights: • Improved version of a mine-based uranium market clearing model for the front-end uranium market and enrichment industries is proposed. • A profit accumulation algorithm and time delay function provides more realistic uranium mine decision making process. • Operational decision delay increased uranium market price volatility. - Abstract: The mining industry faces a number of challenges such as market volatility, investment safety, issues surrounding employment and productivity. Therefore, computer simulations are highly relevant in order to reduce financial risks associated with these challenges. In the mining industry, each firm must compete with other mines and the basic target is profit maximization. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the world uranium (U) supply by simulating financial management challenges faced by an individual U mine that are caused by a variety of regulation issues. In this paper front-end nuclear fuel cycle tool is used to simulate market conditions and the effects they have on the stability of U supply. An individual U mine’s exit or entry in the market might cause changes in the U supply side which can increase or decrease the market price. In this paper we offer a more advanced version of a mine-based U market clearing model. The existing U market model incorporates the market of primary U from uranium mines with secondary uranium (depleted uranium DU), enriched uranium (HEU) and enrichment services. In the model each uranium mine acts as an independent agent that is able to make operational decisions based on the market price. This paper introduces a more realistic decision making algorithm of individual U mine that adds constraints to production decisions. The authors added an accumulated profit model, which allows for the profits accumulated to cover any possible future economic losses and the time-delay algorithm to simulate delayed process of reopening a U mine. The U market simulation covers time period 2010

  11. The Simulation of Financial Markets by Agent-Based Mix-Game Models

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  12. The Simulation of Financial Markets by an Agent-Based Mix-Game Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  13. Exploring policy impacts for servicising in product-based markets : A generic agent-based model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veen, R.A.C.; Kisjes, K.H.; Nikolic, I.

    2017-01-01

    The shift to markets based on servicising, i.e. market-level transitions from product-based to service-based production and consumption patterns, may contribute to achieve absolute decoupling, i.e. the combined development of economic growth and environmental impact reduction. However, the

  14. Structural analysis of oligopoly market based on the reflective game model by the example of telecommunication market in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna A. Biryukova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to analyze the possible structures of the oligopoly market distribution by the example of telecommunication industry in terms of the agentsrsquo reflexive behavior. nbsp Methods game theory economicmathematical modeling. Results the article states that one of the first objects in the game theory is an oligopoly market. Based on the analysis of game theory studies it was found that there is a need to achieve information equilibrium in reflexive games of three agents in the oligopoly market. To solve this problem we analyzed all possible representations of the agents leading to the set of games in the Russian telecommunications market for three agents OJSC ldquoMTSrdquo OJSC ldquoMegafonrdquo and OJSC ldquoVympelcomrdquo. Three reflection grades were studied 1 representations of the agent about other agents 2 representations of the agentrsquos perception of other agents about it and 3 representations of the agent about what its competitors think about the first agentrsquos opinion about the other two. As a result the general patterns were revealed of the expressions of conjectural variations in each case it was proved that further detailing of the reflection is not needed. As a result of calculations the models of informational equilibriums of the Russian telecommunication market were constructed for that the averaged values of the demand and cost functions parameters functions of cellular communication operators were taken. It was also revealed that in 2015 the actual telecommunication market in the Russian Federation qualitatively i.e. by the ratio of market shares was close to equilibrium on condition of first rank reflexive behavior for the case when the market leader OJSC ldquoMTSrdquo represents its counterparties ndash OJSC ldquoMegafonrdquo and OJSC ldquoVympelcomrdquo ndash as the driven agents. Scientific novelty the analytical expressions for the information equilibrium parameters issues and profits of the agents aggregate

  15. A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidlich, Anke; Veit, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    The complexity of electricity markets calls for rich and flexible modeling techniques that help to understand market dynamics and to derive advice for the design of appropriate regulatory frameworks. Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) is a fairly young research paradigm that offers methods for realistic electricity market modeling. A growing number of researchers have developed agent-based models for simulating electricity markets. The diversity of approaches makes it difficult to overview the field of ACE electricity research; this literature survey should guide the way through and describe the state-of-the-art of this research area. In a conclusive summary, shortcomings of existing approaches and open issues that should be addressed by ACE electricity researchers are critically discussed. (author)

  16. Buying on margin, selling short in an agent-based market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ting; Li, Honggang

    2013-09-01

    Credit trading, or leverage trading, which includes buying on margin and selling short, plays an important role in financial markets, where agents tend to increase their leverages for increased profits. This paper presents an agent-based asset market model to study the effect of the permissive leverage level on traders’ wealth and overall market indicators. In this model, heterogeneous agents can assume fundamental value-converging expectations or trend-persistence expectations, and their effective demands of assets depend both on demand willingness and wealth constraints, where leverage can relieve the wealth constraints to some extent. The asset market price is determined by a market maker, who watches the market excess demand, and is influenced by noise factors. By simulations, we examine market results for different leverage ratios. At the individual level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences agents’ wealth accumulation. At the market level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences changes in the asset price, volatility, and trading volume. Qualitatively, our model provides some meaningful results supported by empirical facts. More importantly, we find a continuous phase transition as we increase the leverage threshold, which may provide a further prospective of credit trading.

  17. THE SPORT MARKETING MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Lucian MIHAI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sport marketing involves marketing fundamentals applied in one industry, the sport business industry. The development of sport marketing fundamentals is therefore based on basic marketing principles. The practice and activities of sport marketing are also based on basic marketing activities, but are modified and adapted to the sport business industry. Therefore, sport marketing is based on its primary and parent discipline - marketing. Sport marketing is one of the most important functions of a sport business. This is because the sport marketing activities will define the business. The growth of the sport industry is phenomenal and shows no signs of slowing. Also, sport marketing is a process. A process is a continuous cycle. Therefore, marketing is a function that never ends. The sport marketing management model is an illustration of the elements and process of sport marketing. It should serve as a guide for managing the company’s marketing functions. The model illustrates the elements of marketing, the succession of elements and functions, the process of managing, and the interdependence of the elements This paper presents an overview of the model, sport marketing management, each element and the process.

  18. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Yanhui Xi; Hui Peng; Yemei Qin

    2016-01-01

    The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation....

  19. Diffusion and Aggregation in an Agent Based Model of Stock Market Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castiglione, Filippo

    We describe a new model to simulate the dynamic interactions between market price and the decisions of two different kind of traders. They possess spatial mobility allowing to group together to form coalitions. Each coalition follows a strategy chosen from a proportional voting ``dominated'' by a leader's decision. The interplay of both kind of agents gives rise to complex price dynamics that is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial time series. The present model incorporates many features of other known models and is meant to be the first step toward the construction of an agent-based model that uses more realistic markets rules, strategies, and information structures.

  20. Customer social network affects marketing strategy: A simulation analysis based on competitive diffusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Rui; Wu, Jiawen; Du, Helen S.

    2017-03-01

    To explain the competition phenomenon and results between QQ and MSN (China) in the Chinese instant messaging software market, this paper developed a new population competition model based on customer social network. The simulation results show that the firm whose product with greater network externality effect will gain more market share than its rival when the same marketing strategy is used. The firm with the advantage of time, derived from the initial scale effect will become more competitive than its rival when facing a group of common penguin customers within a social network, verifying the winner-take-all phenomenon in this case.

  1. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhui Xi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation. With the new representations, a theoretical explanation of leverage effect is provided. Simulated data and daily stock market indices (Shanghai composite index, Shenzhen component index, and Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite index via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method are used to estimate the leverage market microstructure model. The results verify the effectiveness of the model and its estimation approach proposed in the paper and also indicate that the stock markets have strong leverage effects. Compared with the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV model in terms of DIC (Deviance Information Criterion, the leverage market microstructure model fits the data better.

  2. Optimizing the structure of the natural gas market using an agent-based modeling framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Benthem, M.

    2010-01-14

    The overall research question guiding this study is as follows: what is the optimal structure of the natural gas market, considering both the degrees of affordability and supply security resulting from this structure? The sub-questions are: How can the concepts of supply security and affordability be usefully defined? (Chapter 2); What should a modeling framework for analyzing the natural gas market with regard to these concepts look like? (Chapters 3 and 4); What general conclusions can be drawn on the basis of this framework? (Chapter 5); What is the effect of liberalization on the Dutch natural gas market? (Chapter 6); What are the possible effects of current trends unfolding in the Dutch natural gas market? (Chapter 7). The framework constructed in this study implicitly contains the necessary elements for deriving a sustainability indicator too. However, to limit the scope of the study, sustainability will not be analyzed explicitly. Chapter 2 provides an introductory description of the natural gas market. Starting from a description of the natural gas value chain, the process of liberalization is described as a change in the organization of the value chain. In addition, the concepts of affordability and supply security are discussed and appropriate quantitative indicators for both objectives are identified. In Chapter 3, a survey of existing gas market models is performed. On the basis of this survey, a classification system for natural gas market models is developed. Furthermore, the characteristics of a modeling framework fit for the purpose of this study are derived. In Chapter 4, a general, quantitative framework for natural gas market modeling is developed on the basis of agent-based computational economics. The model's structure, its dynamics, output and data requirements are described. Furthermore, the properties of each agent are explored, and the possibilities for model verification and validation are outlined. Chapter 5 provides a number of

  3. Optimizing the structure of the natural gas market using an agent-based modeling framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Benthem, M.

    2010-01-01

    The overall research question guiding this study is as follows: what is the optimal structure of the natural gas market, considering both the degrees of affordability and supply security resulting from this structure? The sub-questions are: How can the concepts of supply security and affordability be usefully defined? (Chapter 2); What should a modeling framework for analyzing the natural gas market with regard to these concepts look like? (Chapters 3 and 4); What general conclusions can be drawn on the basis of this framework? (Chapter 5); What is the effect of liberalization on the Dutch natural gas market? (Chapter 6); What are the possible effects of current trends unfolding in the Dutch natural gas market? (Chapter 7). The framework constructed in this study implicitly contains the necessary elements for deriving a sustainability indicator too. However, to limit the scope of the study, sustainability will not be analyzed explicitly. Chapter 2 provides an introductory description of the natural gas market. Starting from a description of the natural gas value chain, the process of liberalization is described as a change in the organization of the value chain. In addition, the concepts of affordability and supply security are discussed and appropriate quantitative indicators for both objectives are identified. In Chapter 3, a survey of existing gas market models is performed. On the basis of this survey, a classification system for natural gas market models is developed. Furthermore, the characteristics of a modeling framework fit for the purpose of this study are derived. In Chapter 4, a general, quantitative framework for natural gas market modeling is developed on the basis of agent-based computational economics. The model's structure, its dynamics, output and data requirements are described. Furthermore, the properties of each agent are explored, and the possibilities for model verification and validation are outlined. Chapter 5 provides a number of

  4. Conceptual model for marketing solar based technology to developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter, Raj; Ramaseshan, B.; Nayar, C.V.

    2002-01-01

    Developing countries are faced with large shortfalls of electric-power generation, shortages of usable indigenous fuels, and transportation bottlenecks for those fuels. The loss of revenue that is forced upon the industry due to power cuts and frequent interruptions of power supply is substantial. Renewable sources of energy have an important role to play in providing much needed power in the context of growing global concern about sustainable energy supplies and protecting the environment from the adverse effects of fossil fuel utilization. The purpose of the study is to identify the factors that influence the adoption of solar-based technology. An examination of the literature in the area of diffusion of technology has led to the identification of different variables. The possible relationships that may exist between these variables is depicted in the conceptual framework. This paper attempts to clarify the relationships between the variables that have been identified and the decision to adopt. (Author)

  5. Understanding agent-based models of financial markets: A bottom-up approach based on order parameters and phase diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lye, Ribin; Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2012-11-01

    We describe a bottom-up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy model, whereby N independent traders buy and sell M stocks through an order book that acts as a clearing house. The price of a stock increases whenever it is bought and decreases whenever it is sold. Price changes are updated by the order book before the next transaction takes place. In this deterministic model, all traders based their buy decisions on a call utility function, and all their sell decisions on a put utility function. We then make the agent-based model more realistic, by either having a fraction fb of traders buy a random stock on offer, or a fraction fs of traders sell a random stock in their portfolio. Based on our simulations, we find that it is possible to identify useful order parameters from the steady-state price distributions of all three models. Using these order parameters as a guide, we find three phases: (i) the dead market; (ii) the boom market; and (iii) the jammed market in the phase diagram of the deterministic model. Comparing the phase diagrams of the stochastic models against that of the deterministic model, we realize that the primary effect of stochasticity is to eliminate the dead market phase.

  6. RESEARCH OF COMPETITION IN DEPOSIT MARKET OF UKRAINE BASED ON THE PANZAR-ROSSE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iryna Didenko

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The problem in an adequate assessment of the level of competition in the banking market has prompted researchers to search constantly some new methods. The most famous of them were later successfully adapted to the banking market, are a models of Bresnahan, Panzar-Rosse, Bertrand, Iwat, Monti-Klein-Modesto Barros and others. In Ukraine, the process of assessing the level of competition in the banking sector is very relevant, in line with the recent reforms of particular relevance and distribution. Regarding the domestic deposit market, there is a shortage of qualitative analysis of this issue, unlike foreign practice. Therefore this study we try to solve this problem. The key goal of researchers in this study is in a detailed analysis to identify the important factors which make influence on the allocated markets, in particular on lending and deposit rates. Based on these factors there could be implemented internal adjustment processes taking place in the markets. The purpose of the article is to determine the level of competition in the deposit market of Ukraine in 2006-2015 basing on nonstructural Panzar- Rosse model and identify key factors that affect this level. Methodology. To research the level of competition in the deposit market of Ukraine the Panzar-Rosse model was used, in which separate 11 models were built using the integrated tool “Multiple regression” in the software package of statistics analysis STATISTICA. The input data in the model was presented with the information on financial performance of Ukrainian banks during ten years from 01.01.2005 till 01.01.2015. Results of this research showed that in Ukrainian deposit market there is a monopolistic competition, as proved by the calculated values of H-statistics index. The year of 2008, in the context of the global economic crisis, was marked as an unbalanced period for deposit market of Ukraine. Practical implications. Knowing the current state of competition level in the

  7. SIMULATING AN EVOLUTIONARY MULTI-AGENT BASED MODEL OF THE STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana MARICA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on artificial stock market simulations using a multi-agent model incorporating 2,000 heterogeneous agents interacting on the artificial market. The agents interaction is due to trading activity on the market through a call auction trading mechanism. The multi-agent model uses evolutionary techniques such as genetic programming in order to generate an adaptive and evolving population of agents. Each artificial agent is endowed with wealth and a genetic programming induced trading strategy. The trading strategy evolves and adapts to the new market conditions through a process called breeding, which implies that at each simulation step, new agents with better trading strategies are generated by the model, from recombining the best performing trading strategies and replacing the agents which have the worst performing trading strategies. The simulation model was build with the help of the simulation software Altreva Adaptive Modeler which offers a suitable platform for financial market simulations of evolutionary agent based models, the S&P500 composite index being used as a benchmark for the simulation results.

  8. Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.

    2015-12-01

    Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

  9. Investigating market efficiency through a forecasting model based on differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Resende, Charlene C.; Pereira, Adriano C. M.; Cardoso, Rodrigo T. N.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

    2017-05-01

    A new differential equation based model for stock price trend forecast is proposed as a tool to investigate efficiency in an emerging market. Its predictive power showed statistically to be higher than the one of a completely random model, signaling towards the presence of arbitrage opportunities. Conditions for accuracy to be enhanced are investigated, and application of the model as part of a trading strategy is discussed.

  10. Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

    2017-01-01

    Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... scenarios that have been developed in a collaborative effort among different actors in the market. We then describe the approach to build business models and discuss lessons learned and benefits from the novel approach. This approach complements traditional techniques through providing a powerful platform...

  11. A Transmission-Cost-Based Model to Estimate the Amount of Market-Integrable Wind Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    are made to share the expenses in transmission derived from their integration, they may see the doors of electricity markets closed for not being competitive enough. This paper presents a model to decide the amount of wind resources that are economically exploitable at a given location from a transmission......In the pursuit of the large-scale integration of wind power production, it is imperative to evaluate plausible frictions among the stochastic nature of wind generation, electricity markets, and the investments in transmission required to accommodate larger amounts of wind. If wind producers......-cost perspective. This model accounts for the uncertain character of wind by using a modeling framework based on stochastic optimization, simulates market barriers by means of a bi-level structure, and considers the financial risk of investments in transmission through the conditional value-at-risk. The major...

  12. Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

    2014-01-01

    We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation.

  13. MARKETING MODELS APPLICATION EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yu. Rymanov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Marketing models are used for the assessment of such marketing elements as sales volume, market share, market attractiveness, advertizing costs, product pushing and selling, profit, profitableness. Classification of buying process decision taking models is presented. SWOT- and GAPbased models are best for selling assessments. Lately, there is a tendency to transfer from the assessment on the ba-sis of financial indices to that on the basis of those non-financial. From the marketing viewpoint, most important are long-term company activities and consumer drawingmodels as well as market attractiveness operative models.

  14. The Evolution of ICT Markets: An Agent-Based Model on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liangjie; Wu, Bangtao; Chen, Zhong; Li, Li

    Information and communication technology (ICT) products exhibit positive network effects.The dynamic process of ICT markets evolution has two intrinsic characteristics: (1) customers are influenced by each others’ purchasing decision; (2) customers are intelligent agents with bounded rationality.Guided by complex systems theory, we construct an agent-based model and simulate on complex networks to examine how the evolution can arise from the interaction of customers, which occur when they make expectations about the future installed base of a product by the fraction of neighbors who are using the same product in his personal network.We demonstrate that network effects play an important role in the evolution of markets share, which make even an inferior product can dominate the whole market.We also find that the intensity of customers’ communication can influence whether the best initial strategy for firms is to improve product quality or expand their installed base.

  15. An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eppstein, Margaret J.; Grover, David K.; Marshall, Jeffrey S.; Rizzo, Donna M.

    2011-01-01

    A spatially explicit agent-based vehicle consumer choice model is developed to explore sensitivities and nonlinear interactions between various potential influences on plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market penetration. The model accounts for spatial and social effects (including threshold effects, homophily, and conformity) and media influences. Preliminary simulations demonstrate how such a model could be used to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points, inform policies affecting PHEV market penetration, and help identify future data collection necessary to more accurately model the system. We examine sensitivity of the model to gasoline prices, to accuracy in estimation of fuel costs, to agent willingness to adopt the PHEV technology, to PHEV purchase price and rebates, to PHEV battery range, and to heuristic values related to gasoline usage. Our simulations indicate that PHEV market penetration could be enhanced significantly by providing consumers with ready estimates of expected lifetime fuel costs associated with different vehicles (e.g., on vehicle stickers), and that increases in gasoline prices could nonlinearly magnify the impact on fleet efficiency. We also infer that a potential synergy from a gasoline tax with proceeds is used to fund research into longer-range lower-cost PHEV batteries. - Highlights: → We model consumer agents to study potential market penetration of PHEVs. → The model accounts for spatial, social, and media effects. → We identify interactions among potential leverage points that could inform policy. → Consumer access to expected lifetime fuel costs may enhance PHEV market penetration. → Increasing PHEV battery range has synergistic effects on fleet efficiency.

  16. Integration of distributed energy resources into low voltage grid: A market-based multiperiod optimization model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mashhour, Elahe; Moghaddas-Tafreshi, S.M. [Faculty of Electrical Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Seyd Khandan, P.O. Box 16315-1355, Shariati, Tehran (Iran)

    2010-04-15

    This paper develops a multiperiod optimization model for an interconnected micro grid with hierarchical control that participates in wholesale energy market to maximize its benefit (i.e. revenues-costs). In addition to the operational constraints of distributed energy resources (DER) including both inter-temporal and non-inter-temporal types, the adequacy and steady-state security constraints of micro grid and its power losses are incorporated in the optimization model. In the presented model, DER are integrated into low voltage grid considering both technical and economical aspects. This integration as a micro grid can participate in wholesale energy market as an entity with dual role including producer and consumer based on the direction of exchanged power. The developed model is evaluated by testing on a micro grid considering different cases and the results are analyzed. (author)

  17. MODEL INOVASI SISTEM PEMASARAN PERBANKAN SYARIAH BERBASIS FLOATING MARKET UNTUK PENCIPTAAN DAYA SAING (MODEL OF ISLAMIC BANKING MARKETING INNOVATION SYSTEMS BASED ON FLOATING MARKET FOR CREATION COMPETITIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Sulianti K. Tobing

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available AbstractGovernment in implementing policies dual banking system in fact is still unrealized, whereas considerablemarket potential with many established Islamic banks. One solution offered is a marketing system innovationin Islamic banking market floating base. The purpose of this study identifies spiritual and floating marketbehavior and determine the factors that influence the customer’s decision in choosing Islamic banks based onpersonal and social nature. The study population is Islamic bank customers located in the region of Jember,Bondowoso, Situbondo, and Banyuwangi with a sample of 200 people. The research method used logisticregression analysis. The results achieved are the majority of customers are female, in the productive age, andemployees. The majority of customers are in a group associated with Islamic banks and conventional.

  18. Impact of the market premium on direct marketers. An agency-based model approach; Auswirkungen der Marktpraemie auf die Akteure der Direktvermarktung. Ein agentenbasierter Modellansatz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wassermann, Sandra; Hauser, Wolfgang [ZIRIUS Univ. Stuttgart (Germany); Reeg, Matthias [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Stuttgart (Germany). Inst. fuer Technische Thermodynamik

    2012-09-15

    By introducing a market premium and tightening the eligibility requirements for the green electricity privilege, the latest amendment to the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) has brought about major changes to the market for direct marketing of electricity from EEG-eligible plants. Has the new EEG made direct marketing based on the green electricity privilege unprofitable altogether, or only for individual market participants? What are the experiences and perspectives of electricity traders in regard to the new EEG and what strategies and business models have they turned to as a result? This article presents first results from a project funded by the Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety (BMU) on the impact of the new regulatory framework for direct marketing on businesses in the renewable electricity market.

  19. A Hybrid Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Web-based Marketing in Iran's Airline Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    saeed safari

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to propose a model for assessing the effectiveness of web-based marketing in Iran's airline industry. Thence in the first step after identifying the components of the model on the basis of literature review and opinions of experts in the field of marketing and sales related to airline industry, the final components of the model were extracted .In the second step, the Dematel method has been used to determine the existing relations between criteria. In the following, we utilized the ANP to determine the weight of each criterion with regard to the existing dependency and feedback between criteria as the third step. Finally in the last step of this research three reputable Iranian Companies in the airline industry were ranked by the use of VICTOR method. The results obtained by Dematel method indicated the internal and external communications between criteria of the assessing effectiveness of web-based marketing model. Meanwhile, the results of ANP suggested that “Reliability” was in the first place in terms of weight and importance among all criteria of the model. Result of VICOR showed that Mahan Company had the minimum distance to the ideal level.

  20. Forest insurance market participants’ game behavior in China: An analysis based on tripartite dynamic game model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ma

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In forest insurance market, there are three main participants including the insurance company, the forest farmer and the government. As different participant has different benefit object, there will be a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants. The purpose of this paper is to make the game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market clear, and then to put forward some policy suggestions on the implementation of forest insurance from the view of game theory. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, the static game model between the insurance company and the forest farmer is set up. According to the result of static game model, it’s difficult to implement forest insurance without government. Secondly, the tripartite dynamic game model among the government, the insurance company and the forest farmer is proposed, and the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model is acquired. Finally, the behavioral characteristics of all participants are analyzed according to the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model. Findings: the government’s allowance will be an important positive factor to implement forest insurance. The loss of the insurance company, which the lower insurance premium brings, can be compensated by the allowance from the government. The more the government provides allowance, the more actively the insurance company will implement forest insurance at a low insurance premium. In this situation, the forest farmer will be more likely to purchase the forest insurance, then the scope of forest insurance implementation will expend. Originality/value: There is a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market. Based on the tripartite dynamic game model, to make the game relationship between each participant clear is conducive to the implementation of forest insurance market in China.

  1. Study on the Market Risk Measurement of the Style Portfolios in Stock Markets Based on EVT-t-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhong Zhou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For the presence of non-normal distribution characteristics in the financial assets returns, the model of AR(1-GJR(1,1 is used to characterize the marginal distribution of the style assets in China stock market. The Copula function is introduced to analyze the dependency structure between the six style assets, combined with the marginal distributed residual sequences. And the joint return distribution of the style portfolios is simulated, combined with extreme value theory and Monte Carlo simulation method. Then the market risks (VaR and CVaR of the style portfolios in China stock markets are obtained. The results of the study show that the generalized Pareto distribution Model can well fit the non-normal distribution characteristics such as peak and fat tail in the style assets returns.

  2. Impact of Germany's energy transition on the Nordic power market – A market-based multi-region energy system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zakeri, Behnam; Virasjoki, Vilma; Syri, Sanna; Connolly, David; Mathiesen, Brian V.; Welsch, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    The EU energy policy aims at creating a single European electricity market through market couplings and grid expansions. To analyse the implications of such power market couplings, we propose a market-based multi-region energy system model. The model simulates a multi-region power market (by applying market optimization and network theory), with detailed representation of each region as an energy system (by simulation of both heat and power sectors). We examine the impact of further integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Germany on the Nordic power market. The results indicate that the average electricity price slightly grows in the Nordic power market after Germany's Energy Transition (Energiewende). Hence, the economic surplus of Nordic consumers diminishes while Nordic producers improve their gain under new market conditions. Considering the gird congestion income, the overall system-level benefits (social welfare) will improve in the Nordic region after Germany's Energiewende. However, this gain is not equally distributed among different Nordic countries and across different stakeholders. Furthermore, the Energiewende slightly increases carbon emissions from power and district heating (DH) sectors, and reduces the flexibility in integration of VRE in some Nordic countries like Denmark. The direct interconnection of Norway and Germany through NordLink will contribute to the flexibility in wind integration in other Nordic countries, such as Denmark and Finland. - Highlights: • By an integrated hourly analysis, we model the energy systems of several networked countries and their common electricity market. • The proposed model can inform energy policy on implications of renewable energy integration in an international power market. • Among Nordic countries, Norway gains the highest economic benefits from Germany's energy transition. • Germany's energy transition constrains the flexibility of the Nordic countries in wind integration. • Nord

  3. The Risk Assessment Study for Electric Power Marketing Competitiveness Based on Cloud Model and TOPSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cunbin; Wang, Yi; Lin, Shuaishuai

    2017-09-01

    With the rapid development of the energy internet and the deepening of the electric power reform, the traditional marketing mode of electric power does not apply to most of electric power enterprises, so must seek a breakthrough, however, in the face of increasingly complex marketing information, how to make a quick, reasonable transformation, makes the electric power marketing competitiveness assessment more accurate and objective becomes a big problem. In this paper, cloud model and TOPSIS method is proposed. Firstly, build the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation index system. Then utilize the cloud model to transform the qualitative evaluation of the marketing data into quantitative values and use the entropy weight method to weaken the subjective factors of evaluation index weight. Finally, by TOPSIS method the closeness degrees of alternatives are obtained. This method provides a novel solution for the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation. Through the case analysis the effectiveness and feasibility of this model are verified.

  4. Minimal agent based model for financial markets II. Statistical properties of the linear and multiplicative dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

    2009-02-01

    We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.

  5. A social marketing approach to implementing evidence-based practice in VHA QUERI: the TIDES depression collaborative care model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Collaborative care models for depression in primary care are effective and cost-effective, but difficult to spread to new sites. Translating Initiatives for Depression into Effective Solutions (TIDES) is an initiative to promote evidence-based collaborative care in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Social marketing applies marketing techniques to promote positive behavior change. Described in this paper, TIDES used a social marketing approach to foster national spread of collaborative care models. TIDES social marketing approach The approach relied on a sequential model of behavior change and explicit attention to audience segmentation. Segments included VHA national leadership, Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) regional leadership, facility managers, frontline providers, and veterans. TIDES communications, materials and messages targeted each segment, guided by an overall marketing plan. Results Depression collaborative care based on the TIDES model was adopted by VHA as part of the new Primary Care Mental Health Initiative and associated policies. It is currently in use in more than 50 primary care practices across the United States, and continues to spread, suggesting success for its social marketing-based dissemination strategy. Discussion and conclusion Development, execution and evaluation of the TIDES marketing effort shows that social marketing is a promising approach for promoting implementation of evidence-based interventions in integrated healthcare systems. PMID:19785754

  6. Agent-Based Modeling of Day-Ahead Real Time Pricing in a Pool-Based Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sh. Yousefi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an agent-based structure of the electricity retail market is presented based on which day-ahead (DA energy procurement for customers is modeled. Here, we focus on operation of only one Retail Energy Provider (REP agent who purchases energy from DA pool-based wholesale market and offers DA real time tariffs to a group of its customers. As a model of customer response to the offered real time prices, an hourly acceptance function is proposed in order to represent the hourly changes in the customer’s effective demand according to the prices. Here, Q-learning (QL approach is applied in day-ahead real time pricing for the customers enabling the REP agent to discover which price yields the most benefit through a trial-and-error search. Numerical studies are presented based on New England day-ahead market data which include comparing the results of RTP based on QL approach with that of genetic-based pricing.

  7. How the ownership structures cause epidemics in financial markets: A network-based simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastkhan, Hossein; Gharneh, Naser Shams

    2018-02-01

    Analysis of systemic risks and contagions is one of the main challenges of policy makers and researchers in the recent years. Network theory is introduced as a main approach in the modeling and simulation of financial and economic systems. In this paper, a simulation model is introduced based on the ownership network to analyze the contagion and systemic risk events. For this purpose, different network structures with different values for parameters are considered to investigate the stability of the financial system in the presence of different kinds of idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. The considered network structures include Erdos-Renyi, core-periphery, segregated and power-law networks. Moreover, the results of the proposed model are also calculated for a real ownership network. The results show that the network structure has a significant effect on the probability and the extent of contagion in the financial systems. For each network structure, various values for the parameters results in remarkable differences in the systemic risk measures. The results of real case show that the proposed model is appropriate in the analysis of systemic risk and contagion in financial markets, identification of systemically important firms and estimation of market loss when the initial failures occur. This paper suggests a new direction in the modeling of contagion in the financial markets, in particular that the effects of new kinds of financial exposure are clarified. This paper's idea and analytical results may also be useful for the financial policy makers, portfolio managers and the firms to conduct their investment in the right direction.

  8. Conjectural variation based learning model of strategic bidding in spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiqun Song; Yixin Ni; Fushuan Wen; Wu, F.F.

    2004-01-01

    In actual electricity market, which operates repeatedly on the basis of one hour or half hour, each firm might learn or estimate other competitors' strategic behaviors from available historical market operation data, and rationally aims at its maximum profit in the repeated biddings. A conjectural variation based learning method is proposed in this paper for generation firm to improve its strategic bidding performance. In the method, each firm learns and dynamically regulates its conjecture upon the reactions of its rivals to its bidding according to available information published in the electricity market, and then makes its optimal generation decision based on the updated conjectural variation of its rivals. Through such learning process, the equilibrium reached in the market is proven a Nash equilibrium. Motivation of generation firm to learn in the changing market environment and consequence of learning behavior in the market are also discussed through computer tests. (author)

  9. Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2018-01-01

    Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

  10. Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas; Wagner, Friedrich

    2006-10-01

    Following Alfarano et al. [Estimation of agent-based models: the case of an asymmetric herding model, Comput. Econ. 26 (2005) 19-49; Excess volatility and herding in an artificial financial market: analytical approach and estimation, in: W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Eds.), Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005, pp. 241-254], we consider a simple agent-based model of a highly stylized financial market. The model takes Kirman's ant process [A. Kirman, Epidemics of opinion and speculative bubbles in financial markets, in: M.P. Taylor (Ed.), Money and Financial Markets, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1991, pp. 354-368; A. Kirman, Ants, rationality, and recruitment, Q. J. Econ. 108 (1993) 137-156] of mimetic contagion as its starting point, but allows for asymmetry in the attractiveness of both groups. Embedding the contagion process into a standard asset-pricing framework, and identifying the abstract groups of the herding model as chartists and fundamentalist traders, a market with periodic bubbles and bursts is obtained. Taking stock of the availability of a closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of returns for this model, we can estimate its parameters via maximum likelihood. Expanding our earlier work, this paper presents pertinent estimates for the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate and the Australian stock market index. As it turns out, our model indicates dominance of fundamentalist behavior in both the stock and foreign exchange market.

  11. Agent-based model of intermittent renewables : Simulating emerging changes in energy markets in transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Viebahn, P.; Richstein, J.C.; Lechtenböhmer, S.; Nebel, A.

    2012-01-01

    The energy transition is taking shape in the German and, to a lesser extent also its neighbouring electricity markets. We have proposed adaptations to an existing model to represent the increasing shares of intermittent renewables, that may alter the structure of the market and the viability of

  12. Group-Wise Herding Behavior in Financial Markets: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minsung; Kim, Minki

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we shed light on the dynamic characteristics of rational group behaviors and the relationship between monetary policy and economic units in the financial market by using an agent-based model (ABM), the Hurst exponent, and the Shannon entropy. First, an agent-based model is used to analyze the characteristics of the group behaviors at different levels of irrationality. Second, the Hurst exponent is applied to analyze the characteristics of the trend-following irrationality group. Third, the Shannon entropy is used to analyze the randomness and unpredictability of group behavior. We show that in a system that focuses on macro-monetary policy, steep fluctuations occur, meaning that the medium-level irrationality group has the highest Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy among all of the groups. However, in a system that focuses on micro-monetary policy, all group behaviors follow a stable trend, and the medium irrationality group thus remains stable, too. Likewise, in a system that focuses on both micro- and macro-monetary policies, all groups tend to be stable. Consequently, we find that group behavior varies across economic units at each irrationality level for micro- and macro-monetary policy in the financial market. Together, these findings offer key insights into monetary policy. PMID:24714635

  13. Towards an E-market Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivang, Reimer; Hinson, Robert; Somasundaram, Ramanathan

    2006-01-01

    on the literature survey and ídentification of gaps in the present e-market definitive models, the authors postulate a preliminary e-market reference model. Originality/ Value: Through synthesizing the e-market literature, and by taking into account contemporary e-market developments, key dimensions that define......Purpose: Seeks to argue that there are problems associated with e-market definitive efforts and consequently seeks proposes a new e-market model. Design/methodology/Approach: Paper based largely on literature survey and an assessment of the existing e-market conceptualizations. Findings: Based...

  14. A social marketing approach to implementing evidence-based practice in VHA QUERI: the TIDES depression collaborative care model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luck, Jeff; Hagigi, Fred; Parker, Louise E; Yano, Elizabeth M; Rubenstein, Lisa V; Kirchner, JoAnn E

    2009-09-28

    Collaborative care models for depression in primary care are effective and cost-effective, but difficult to spread to new sites. Translating Initiatives for Depression into Effective Solutions (TIDES) is an initiative to promote evidence-based collaborative care in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Social marketing applies marketing techniques to promote positive behavior change. Described in this paper, TIDES used a social marketing approach to foster national spread of collaborative care models. The approach relied on a sequential model of behavior change and explicit attention to audience segmentation. Segments included VHA national leadership, Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) regional leadership, facility managers, frontline providers, and veterans. TIDES communications, materials and messages targeted each segment, guided by an overall marketing plan. Depression collaborative care based on the TIDES model was adopted by VHA as part of the new Primary Care Mental Health Initiative and associated policies. It is currently in use in more than 50 primary care practices across the United States, and continues to spread, suggesting success for its social marketing-based dissemination strategy. Development, execution and evaluation of the TIDES marketing effort shows that social marketing is a promising approach for promoting implementation of evidence-based interventions in integrated healthcare systems.

  15. A Comparative Study of Marketing Channel Multiagent Stackelberg Model Based on Perfect Rationality and Fairness Preference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaihong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies channel consisting of a manufacturer and two retailers. As a basis for comparison, the first, multiagent Stackelberg model has been structured based on perfect rationality. Further, fairness preference theory will be embedded in marketing channel multiagent Stackelberg model, and the results show that if the retailers have a jealous fairness preference, the manufacturer will reduce the wholesale price, retailers will increase the effort level, product sales will be increased, and the total channel utility and manufacturers’ utility will be pareto improvement, but the pareto improvement of retailers’ utility is associated with the interval of jealousy fairness preference coefficient. If the retailers have a sympathetic fairness preference, the manufacturer increases wholesale price, retailers reduce the effort level, and the total channel utility, manufacturer’s utility, and retailers’ utility are less than that of the no fairness preference utility.

  16. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  17. Research trends on Big Data in Marketing: A text mining and topic modeling based literature analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Amado

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the research interest on Big Data in Marketing, we present a research literature analysis based on a text mining semi-automated approach with the goal of identifying the main trends in this domain. In particular, the analysis focuses on relevant terms and topics related with five dimensions: Big Data, Marketing, Geographic location of authors’ affiliation (countries and continents, Products, and Sectors. A total of 1560 articles published from 2010 to 2015 were scrutinized. The findings revealed that research is bipartite between technological and research domains, with Big Data publications not clearly aligning cutting edge techniques toward Marketing benefits. Also, few inter-continental co-authored publications were found. Moreover, findings show that research in Big Data applications to Marketing is still in an embryonic stage, thus making it essential to develop more direct efforts toward business for Big Data to thrive in the Marketing arena.

  18. A QFD-Based Mathematical Model for New Product Development Considering the Target Market Segment

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Liang-Hsuan; Chen, Cheng-Nien

    2014-01-01

    Responding to customer needs is important for business success. Quality function deployment provides systematic procedures for converting customer needs into technical requirements to ensure maximum customer satisfaction. The existing literature mainly focuses on the achievement of maximum customer satisfaction under a budgetary limit via mathematical models. The market goal of the new product for the target market segment is usually ignored. In this study, the proposed approach thus consider...

  19. Analyzing the effect of customer loyalty on virtual marketing adoption based on theory of technology acceptance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peyman Ghafari Ashtiani

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the most advantages of the internet and its expansion is probably due to its easy and low cost access to unlimited information and easy and fast information exchange. The accession of communication technology for marketing area and emergence of the Internet leads to creation and development of new marketing models such as viral marketing. In fact, unlike other marketing methods, the most powerful tool for selling products and ideas are not done by a marketer to a customer but from a customer to another one. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between customers' loyalty and the acceptance of viral marketing based on the theory of technology acceptance model (TAM model among the civil engineers and architects who are the members of Engineering Council in Isfahan (ECI. The research method is descriptive–survey and it is applicable in target. The statistical population includes civil engineers and architects who are the members of Engineering Council in Isfahan including 14400 members. The sample size was determined 762 members based on Cochran sampling formula, the sample was selected as accessible. The data was collected by field method. Analyzing the data and recent research hypothesis, the data was extracted from the questionnaires. Then, all the data was analyzed by computer and SPSS and LISREL software. According to the results of the data, the loyalty of the civil engineers and architects members of ECI was associated with the acceptance and practical involvement of viral marketing.

  20. Model For Marketing Strategy Decision Based On Multicriteria Decicion Making: A Case Study In Batik Madura Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anna, I. D.; Cahyadi, I.; Yakin, A.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of marketing strategy is a prominent competitive advantage for small and medium enterprises business development. The selection process is is a multiple criteria decision-making problem, which includes evaluation of various attributes or criteria in a process of strategy formulation. The objective of this paper is to develop a model for the selection of a marketing strategy in Batik Madura industry. The current study proposes an integrated approach based on analytic network process (ANP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to determine the best strategy for Batik Madura marketing problems. Based on the results of group decision-making technique, this study selected fourteen criteria, including consistency, cost, trend following, customer loyalty, business volume, uniqueness manpower, customer numbers, promotion, branding, bussiness network, outlet location, credibility and the inovation as Batik Madura marketing strategy evaluation criteria. A survey questionnaire developed from literature review was distributed to a sample frame of Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan. In the decision procedure step, expert evaluators were asked to establish the decision matrix by comparing the marketing strategy alternatives under each of the individual criteria. Then, considerations obtained from ANP and TOPSIS methods were applied to build the specific criteria constraints and range of the launch strategy in the model. The model in this study demonstrates that, under current business situation, Straight-focus marketing strategy is the best marketing strategy for Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan.

  1. Theory of agent-based market models with controlled levels of greed and anxiety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papadopoulos, P; Coolen, A C C [Department of Mathematics, King' s College London, The Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom)], E-mail: panagiotis.2.papadopoulos@kcl.ac.uk, E-mail: ton.coolen@kcl.ac.uk

    2010-01-15

    We use generating functional analysis to study minority-game-type market models with generalized strategy valuation updates that control the psychology of agents' actions. The agents' choice between trend-following and contrarian trading, and their vigor in each, depends on the overall state of the market. Even in 'fake history' models, the theory now involves an effective overall bid process (coupled to the effective agent process) which can exhibit profound remanence effects and new phase transitions. For some models the bid process can be solved directly, others require Maxwell-construction-type approximations.

  2. Theory of agent-based market models with controlled levels of greed and anxiety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papadopoulos, P; Coolen, A C C

    2010-01-01

    We use generating functional analysis to study minority-game-type market models with generalized strategy valuation updates that control the psychology of agents' actions. The agents' choice between trend-following and contrarian trading, and their vigor in each, depends on the overall state of the market. Even in 'fake history' models, the theory now involves an effective overall bid process (coupled to the effective agent process) which can exhibit profound remanence effects and new phase transitions. For some models the bid process can be solved directly, others require Maxwell-construction-type approximations.

  3. Assessing the Plurality of Actors and Policy Interactions: Agent-Based Modelling of Renewable Energy Market Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Deissenroth

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing deployment of renewable energy sources (RES calls for an enhanced integration of RES into energy markets, accompanied by a new set of regulations. In Germany, for instance, the feed-in tariff legislation for renewables has been successively replaced by first optional and then obligatory marketing of RES on competitive wholesale markets. This paper introduces an agent-based model that allows studying the impact of changing energy policy instruments on the economic performance of RES operators and marketers. The model structure, its components, and linkages are presented in detail; an additional case study demonstrates the capability of our sociotechnical model. We find that changes in the political framework cannot be mapped directly to RES operators as behaviour of intermediary market actors has to be considered as well. Characteristics and strategies of intermediaries are thus an important factor for successful RES marketing and further deployment. It is shown that the model is able to assess the emergence and stability of market niches.

  4. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

  5. Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

    1998-01-01

    The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

  6. Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Kenta; Takayasu, Hideki; Ito, Takatoshi; Takayasu, Misako

    2009-05-01

    We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects: the self-modulation of transaction intervals and a forecasting tendency, which uses a moving average of the latest market price changes. Based on the present microscopic model of markets, we find a quantitative relation with market potential forces, which have recently been discovered in the study of market price modeling based on random walks.

  7. Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

    2003-03-01

    We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

  8. A QFD-Based Mathematical Model for New Product Development Considering the Target Market Segment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang-Hsuan Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Responding to customer needs is important for business success. Quality function deployment provides systematic procedures for converting customer needs into technical requirements to ensure maximum customer satisfaction. The existing literature mainly focuses on the achievement of maximum customer satisfaction under a budgetary limit via mathematical models. The market goal of the new product for the target market segment is usually ignored. In this study, the proposed approach thus considers the target customer satisfaction degree for the target market segment in the model by formulating the overall customer satisfaction as a function of the quality level. In addition, the proposed approach emphasizes the cost-effectiveness concept in the design stage via the achievement of the target customer satisfaction degree using the minimal total cost. A numerical example is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach and its characteristics are discussed.

  9. Modelling the transition from cost-based to bid-based pricing in a deregulated electricity-market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, Donald J. [BC Hydro, 6911 Southpoint Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    Alberta is a province in western Canada with a deregulated electricity-market. Market clearing prices for most hours reflect the cost of either coal-fired or gas-fired thermal generation. Whenever there is a chronic shortage of generation or even a temporary one due to an outage, prices can be bid much higher than fuel costs would suggest. The province of British Columbia borders Alberta to the west and its electric utility, BC Hydro, has a history of trade with the utilities in Alberta. BC Hydro has predominantly hydroelectric resources and large storage reservoirs. Prior to Alberta's deregulation in 1996, BC Hydro was able to enter into mutually beneficial load-factoring contracts with the Alberta utilities. Now, as long as the transmission is available, BC Hydro can buy low priced off-peak coal-fired energy and sell into the high priced periods without having to share the benefits. BC Hydro uses a combination of econometric and Monte Carlo modelling to simulate hourly price-duration curves for Alberta that capture both cost-based and bid-based characteristics. This approach provides a good fit with the stochastic dynamic programming model that BC Hydro has developed for its mid-term hydro scheduling. (author)

  10. Modelling the transition from cost-based to bid-based pricing in a deregulated electricity-market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Druce, Donald J.

    2007-01-01

    Alberta is a province in western Canada with a deregulated electricity-market. Market clearing prices for most hours reflect the cost of either coal-fired or gas-fired thermal generation. Whenever there is a chronic shortage of generation or even a temporary one due to an outage, prices can be bid much higher than fuel costs would suggest. The province of British Columbia borders Alberta to the west and its electric utility, BC Hydro, has a history of trade with the utilities in Alberta. BC Hydro has predominantly hydroelectric resources and large storage reservoirs. Prior to Alberta's deregulation in 1996, BC Hydro was able to enter into mutually beneficial load-factoring contracts with the Alberta utilities. Now, as long as the transmission is available, BC Hydro can buy low priced off-peak coal-fired energy and sell into the high priced periods without having to share the benefits. BC Hydro uses a combination of econometric and Monte Carlo modelling to simulate hourly price-duration curves for Alberta that capture both cost-based and bid-based characteristics. This approach provides a good fit with the stochastic dynamic programming model that BC Hydro has developed for its mid-term hydro scheduling

  11. Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallo, Giulia [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-12-18

    The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One option includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.

  12. The economics of renewable electricity market integration. An empirical and model-based analysis of regulatory frameworks and their impacts on the power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, Marco

    2012-07-01

    As power systems increase in complexity due to higher shares of intermitting RES-E, so increase the requirements for power system modeling. This thesis shows empirically, with examples from Germany and Texas, that the increasing RES-E share strongly affects current power market operation. The markets further create price signals, which lead to system adaptations in the long-run. To get an estimate of the adaptation effects, 'The High Temporal Resolution Electricity Market Analysis Model' (THEA) has been developed. In a first application for the ERCOT market in Texas, particular model attributes are tested and compared to some complexity reducing approaches, i.e. the reduction of temporal resolution and the reduction of operational constraints. In both cases, the results show significant differences compared to the results when the full spectrum of THEA's capabilities is utilized. The ERCOT case study additionally shows that the adaptation to RES-E in an isolated, mainly thermal-based power system is quite severe. Market signals which underline this conclusion are the severely reduced value of wind energy, the increasing curtailment and the strong shift towards peak-oriented generating capacities. The second application of THEA models the German power market with its interconnected markets. This analysis increases the complexity significantly by modeling a well interconnected system, increasing the amount of different RES-E technologies and adding CAES investment options. In order to assess the impact on the different system component's supply, demand and grid infrastructure, specific measures are applied to compare several scenarios. Each scenario represents a policy option, which either reduces or increases the flexibility of the power system. The scenario comparisons capture the effects of a lower RES-E share, a larger baseload capacity fleet, higher interconnector capacities, various RES-E support scheme designs and the capability of RES-E to

  13. Model-based investigation of the electricity market. Unit commitment and power plant investments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ninghong

    2013-01-01

    The German Federal Government published its energy concept in September 2010 with a description of the road into the era of renewable energies. Therefore, the future renewable energy installed in Germany is expected to consist mostly of wind and solar, which are subject to intermittency of supply and significant fluctuations. The growing portion of energy generation by fluctuating sources is turning to a big challenge for the power plant unit commitment and the investment decisions as well. In this thesis, a fundamental electricity market model with combined modeling of these two aspects is developed. This model is subsequently applied to the German electricity market to investigate what kind of power plant investments are indispensable, considering the steadily increasing portion of energy generation from fluctuating sources, to ensure a reliable energy supply in a cost-effective way in the future. In addition, current energy policy in Germany regarding the use of renewable energy and nuclear energy is analyzed.

  14. A trade-based method for modelling supply markets in consequential LCA exemplified with Portland cement and bananas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sacchi, Romain

    2017-01-01

    This study proposes a method based on the analysis of trade networks over time for modelling the marginal supply of products in consequential life cycle assessment (LCA). It aims at increasing the geographical granularity of markets, accuracy of transport distances and modes and material losses d...

  15. Modelling Market Dynamics with a "Market Game"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kei; Chen, Yu

    In the financial market, traders, especially speculators, typically behave as to yield capital gains by the difference between selling and buying prices. Making use of the structure of Minority Game, we build a novel market toy model which takes account of such the speculative mind involving a round-trip trade to analyze the market dynamics as a system. Even though the micro-level behavioral rules of players in this new model is quite simple, its macroscopic aggregational output has the reproducibility of the well-known stylized facts such as volatility clustering and heavy tails. The proposed model may become a new alternative bottom-up approach in order to study the emerging mechanism of those stylized qualitative properties of asset returns.

  16. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  17. Study on Maritime Logistics Warehousing Center Model and Precision Marketing Strategy Optimization Based on Fuzzy Method and Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Kefeng

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The bulk commodity, different with the retail goods, has a uniqueness in the location selection, the chosen of transportation program and the decision objectives. How to make optimal decisions in the facility location, requirement distribution, shipping methods and the route selection and establish an effective distribution system to reduce the cost has become a burning issue for the e-commerce logistics, which is worthy to be deeply and systematically solved. In this paper, Logistics warehousing center model and precision marketing strategy optimization based on fuzzy method and neural network model is proposed to solve this problem. In addition, we have designed principles of the fuzzy method and neural network model to solve the proposed model because of its complexity. Finally, we have solved numerous examples to compare the results of lingo and Matlab, we use Matlab and lingo just to check the result and to illustrate the numerical example, we can find from the result, the multi-objective model increases logistics costs and improves the efficiency of distribution time.

  18. Agent-based Modeling Simulation Analysis on the Regulation of Institutional Investor's Encroachment Behavior in Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study explores the effective regulation of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market. Given the theoretical and practical importance, the present study examines the effect of the self-adaptive regulation strategy (adjusting the regulation factors such as punishment and the probability of investigating successfully in time for the sake of the small & medium-sized investor protection.Design/methodology/approach: This study was carried out through game theory and agent-based modeling simulation. Firstly, a dynamic game model was built to search the core factors of regulation and the equilibrium paths. Secondly, an agent-based modeling simulation model was built in Swarm to extend the game model. Finally, a simulation experiment (using virtual parameter values was performed to examine the effect of regulation strategy obtained form game model.Findings: The results of this study showed that the core factors of avoiding the institutional investor's encroachment behavior are the punishment and the probability of investigating successfully of the regulator. The core factors embody as the self-adaptability and the capability of regulator. If the regulator can adjust the regulation factors in time, the illegal behaviors will be avoided effectively.Research limitations/implications: The simulation experiment in this paper was performed with virtual parameter values. Although the results of experiment showed the effect of self-adaptive regulation, there are still some differences between simulation experiment and real market situation.Originality/value: The purpose of this study is to investigate an effective regulation strategy of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market in order to maintain market order and protect the benefits of investors. Base on the game model and simulation model, a simulation experiment was preformed and the result showed that the self-adaptive regulation would be effective

  19. Survey of Models on Demand, Customer Base-Line and Demand Response and Their Relationships in the Power Market

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas

    2012-01-01

    The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...

  20. Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Ding

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

  1. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  3. COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Mednikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

  4. Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractTo comprehend the competitive structure of a market, it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on market shares. A useful model to link market shares with marketing-mix variables, like price and promotion, is the market share attraction model.

  5. A mid-term, market-based power systems planning model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Dagoumas, Athanasios S.; Georgiadis, Michael C.; Papaioannou, George; Dikaiakos, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A mid-term Energy Planning along with a Unit Commitment model is developed. • The model identifies the optimum interconnection capacity. • Electricity interconnections affect the power mix and the day-ahead spot price. • Renewables’ penetration has impacts on the power reserves and the CO_2 emissions. • Energy policy and fuel pricing can have significant impacts on the power mix. - Abstract: This paper presents a generic Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model that integrates a Mid-term Energy Planning (MEP) model, which implements generation and transmission system planning at a yearly level, with a Unit Commitment (UC) model, which performs the simulation of the Day-Ahead Electricity Market. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of the Greek interconnected power system. The aim is to evaluate a critical project in the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) of the Independent Power Transmission System Operator S.A. (ADMIE), namely the electric interconnection of the Crete Island with the mainland electric system. The proposed modeling framework identifies the implementation (or not) of the interconnection of the Crete Island with the mainland electric system, as well as the optimum interconnection capacity. It also quantifies the effects on the Day-Ahead electricity market and on the energy mix. The paper demonstrates that the model can provide useful insights into the strategic and challenging decisions to be determined by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, by providing the optimal energy roadmap and management, as well as clear price signals on critical energy projects under real operating and design constraints.

  6. MODELING OF INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN STOCKS MARKETS: AN APPROACH FROM MULTI AGENT BASED SIMULATION AND FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEJANDRO ESCOBAR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simulation model of a complex system, in this case a financial market, using a MultiAgent Based Simulation approach. Such model takes into account microlevel aspects like the Continuous Double Auction mechanism, which is widely used within stock markets, as well as investor agents reasoning who participate looking for profits. To model such reasoning several variables were considered including general stocks information like profitability and volatility, but also some agent's aspects like their risk tendency. All these variables are incorporated throughout a fuzzy logic approach trying to represent in a faithful manner the kind of reasoning that nonexpert investors have, including a stochastic component in order to model human factors.

  7. Fostering Organizational Innovation based on modeling the Marketing Research Process through Event-driven Process Chain (EPC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fleacă

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises competing in an actual business framework are required to win and maintain their competitiveness by flexibility, fast reaction and conformation to the changing customers' needs based on innovation of work related to products, services, and internal processes. The paper addresses these challenges which gain more complex bonds in a case of high pressure for innovation. The methodology commences with a literature review of the current knowledge on innovation through business processes management. Secondly, it has been applied the Event-driven Process Chain tool from the scientific literature to model the variables of marketing research process. The findings highlight benefits of marketing research workflow that enhances the value of market information while reducing costs of obtaining it, in a coherent way.

  8. Collaborative Decision Model on Stockpile Material of a Traditional Market Infrastructure using Value-Based HBU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utomo, C.; Rahmawati, Y.; Pararta, D. L.; Ariesta, A.

    2017-11-01

    Readiness of infrastructure establishment is needed in the early phase of real estate development. To meet the needs of retail property in the form of traditional markets, the Government prepares to build a new 1300 units. Traditional market development requires infrastructure development. One of it is the preparation of sand material embankment as much as ± 200,000 m3. With a distance of 30 km, sand material can be delivered to the project site by dump trucks that can only be operated by 2 trip per day. The material is managed by using stockpile method. Decision of stockpile location requires multi person and multi criteria in a collaborative environment. The highest and the best use (HBU) criteria was used to construct a value-based decision hierarchy. Decision makers from five stakeholders analyzed the best of three locations by giving their own preference of development cost and HBU function. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on satisfying options and cooperative game was applied for agreement options and coalition formation on collaborative decision. The result indicates that not all solutions become a possible location for the stockpile material. It shows the ‘best fit’ options process for all decision makers.

  9. Future Skilled-Labour Markets in Germany: from Model-Based Calculations to Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Maier

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we focus on the potential development of the German labour market. For this purpose, wedeveloped a forecasting system that considers both supply and demand by occupational fi elds and qualifi cationsand that relies on consistent datasets, exogenous assumptions and systematic correlations. We presentthe key impacts for our forecasting system and highlight the eff ects of diff erent assumptions (scenariosexemplifi ed on our demand model. On the supply side, we point out how diff erent behaviours on the individuallevel infl uence the structure of development of the supply of skilled labour. Keeping the possibility of thosevarious potential futures in mind, we conclude with an outlook on potential skilled labour shortages inthe future.

  10. A Model of Market Positioning of Destinations Based on Online Customer Reviews of Lodgings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Rodríguez-Díaz

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to develop a methodology to determine the competitive online positioning of lodging companies in different tourist destinations. The rise of the digital age has allowed many customers to share their opinions through specialized websites, providing a dynamic and constantly updated evaluation of the market. In this context, competitiveness is an essential factor in the economic sustainability of destinations. The competitive positioning of destinations is determined by the scale of variables used by Booking.com. The price and lodging category variables are also used, as well as three new variables derived from the initial scale: the quality average, value and added value. This methodology provides a tool to determine the level of competitiveness of the lodging offered in tourist destinations, based on which, actions can be taken to improve destinations’ positioning.

  11. Green Tourism Marketing Model1

    OpenAIRE

    Hasan, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Green Tourism Marketing Model research as efforts to develop environmentally friendly tourism destination, the synergy of government, business and community participation become the driving force of tourism product development with highly competitive. In the long term, this research aims to provide the marketing concept of green tourism as economic development efforts and strengthen the environment (eco-growth) through the development of green tourism marketing models. The ...

  12. A Q-learning agent-based model for the analysis of the power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tellidou, A.; Bakirtzis, A.

    2006-01-01

    The introduction of deregulation in the electricity sector resulted in a different way of thinking and acting on the part of producers. Power suppliers strive to maximize their profit and their utilization rate through a bidding process. According to the pricing system, the competition conditions, the demand side bidding, and the available information, they develop different bidding strategies in order to exploit every possible advantage. This paper presents the Q-Learning algorithm in order to model the bidding strategy of suppliers in electricity auctions. The study examined players' behaviour in the spot market and the change in their policy under different conditions of demand. The Q-learning algorithm considers a novel approach to the definition of states and actions. States are not defined exclusively, as states of the environment, but rather, are different for each agent and relative to the impact the environment has on the agent. Actions are not represented by the price the agent bids, but by the variation between the previous and the new bid price. Market structure was described in this paper and the supplier's bidding problem was formulated in terms of Q-learning. A description of the test system was presented and the parameter selection of the algorithm, as well as the presentation and the results of four case study simulations were discussed. The Q-learning algorithm in supplier bidding strategy showed very promising results. it was suggested that the research should be expanded to include more producers or tests of transmission systems. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  13. New Brunswick Market Design Committee : market design issues paper : choice of market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    A model for the competitive electricity market in New Brunswick was not specified by the White Paper: New Brunswick Energy Policy, published in March 2001. One of the tasks of the Market Design Committee (MDC) is to select a market model for the province. This report was prepared with this objective in mind. It begins by providing a description of the basic functions that must be performed by any electricity system. Different market models will function differently, and a descriptions of how the functions would be performed under each model is presented. Considering the specific size and geographic location of New Brunswick, a number of actual markets that could be of interest are presented. The various electricity markets normally use one of four market models: vertically integrated monopoly utility, a competitive pool market, a bilateral contract market, and a single-buyer market. The first model was not explained as it represents the existing, non-competitive model whereby the government owns and/or regulates price and investment decision. The case where a market operator receives bids and offers from buyers and sellers and matches them to derive a price and schedule for the spot market is what is called the competitive pool market. When electricity trade takes place through a series of contracts between individual buyers and sellers, it is referred to as a bilateral contract market. Finally, the single-buyer market is defined as a monopoly where the buyer purchases from multiple sellers based on competition amongst them. Different examples are provided of applications of the three markets described in the paper. Both New England and New Zealand were chosen to better illustrate the concepts of a fully competitive pool-based market, as they either have close ties to New Brunswick, or share physical similarities. The single-buyer model is illustrated by the case of Northern Ireland where size is similar. The choices made in Quebec were described in the final

  14. Marketing Modeling for New Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis addresses the analysis of new or very recent marketing data and the introduction of new marketing models. We present a collection of models that are useful to analyze (1) the optimal launch time of new and dominant technologies, (2) the triggers, speed and timing of new

  15. Market based solutions for power pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wangensteen, Ivar

    2002-06-01

    The report examines how the price for effect reserves, spot market power and regulated power is formed provided ideal market conditions rule. Primarily the price determining factors in a market for power reserves are examined and how the connection between this market and the energy market (the spot market) is. In a free market there would be a balance between what the actors may obtain by operating in the open market for power reserves/regulated power on the one hand and the market for spot power on the other. Primarily we suppose that the desired amount of power reserve is known. Secondly the problem constellation is extended to comprise the size of the effect reserves i.e. the optimising of the requirement to the power reserves. The optimal amount of power reserves is obtained when there is a balance between the cost and the benefit. This optimal balance is achieved when expected macro economical loss due to outfacing balances against the cost of maintaining larger reserves. By using a simple model it is demonstrated that a system operator regulates the maximal price in the regulated market and this equals the rationing price. The actors will offer sufficient reserves even if the reserve price is zero (provided risk neutrality). If the maximal price for regulated power is lower the price of effect reserves will rise. Based on the same simple model calculations are made for how short and long term market balance will be for increasing demands

  16. Understanding electronic market usage : a revised model based on planned behaviour and innovation diffusion theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijden, van der Hans

    1999-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the identification of determinants that influence the use ofbusiness-to-consumer electronic markets. Since the widespread adoption of the Internet, these electronic markets are now commonplace and it becomesincreasingly relevant to identify the factors that influence

  17. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Yuewen; Chen, Meisen; You, Shi

    2017-01-01

    In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase...... in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view...... of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO) is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle...

  18. On dynamic selection of households for direct marketing based on Markov chain models with memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otter, Pieter W.

    A simple, dynamic selection procedure is proposed, based on conditional, expected profits using Markov chain models with memory. The method is easy to apply, only frequencies and mean values have to be calculated or estimated. The method is empirically illustrated using a data set from a charitable

  19. A dispatch based pricing model for the New Zealand electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ring, B.J.; Read, E.G.

    1996-01-01

    Work undertaken for the New Zealand transmission grid is described. Prices derived from an observed system dispatch can be used in the short-run coordination of a competitive wholesale electricity market. These prices vary across space and time, reflecting differences in marginal costs and changing demand. Markets for emergency reserve generating capacity can be integrated with a market for power. Used in conjunction with longer term contracts, such short-run prices have the potential to allow competitive power system operation without significant loss of coordination efficiencies. 2 figs., 26 refs

  20. Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Fred Espen Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics......, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained...

  1. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  2. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

    2014-04-15

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  3. Regression Models for Market-Shares

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Kristina; Olsen, Jørgen Kai; Tjur, Tue

    2005-01-01

    On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put on the interpretat......On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put...... on the interpretation of the parameters in relation to models for the total sales based on discrete choice models.Key words and phrases. MCI model, discrete choice model, market-shares, price elasitcity, regression model....

  4. Model of Nordic energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjelsvik, E.; Johnsen, T.; Mysen, H.T.

    1992-01-01

    Simulation results are given of the consumption of electricity and oil in Denmark, Norway and Sweden based on the demand section of a Nordic energy market model which is in the process of being developed in Oslo under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The model incorporates supply, and trade between countries so that it can be analyzed how trading can contribute to goals within energy and environmental policies and to cost effective activities aimed at reducing pollution. The article deals in some detail with the subject of how taxation on carbon dioxide emission can influence pollution abatement and with energy consumption development within individual sectors in individual Northern countries. The model of energy demand is described with emphasis on the individual sectors of industry, transport, service and private households. Simulation results giving the effects of energy consumption and increased taxation on fossil fuels are given. On this background the consequences of the adaption of power plants is discussed and a sketch is given of a Nordic electric power market incorporating trading. (AB) (15 refs.)

  5. Development of an Agent-based Model to Analyze Contemporary Helium Markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riddle, Matthew E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Uckun, Canan [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Conzelmann, Guenter [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Macal, Charles M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-02-01

    Although U.S. helium demand has remained relatively flat since 2009, exports of helium have increased significantly since then, driven primarily by demand for electronic and semiconductor manufacturing in Asia. In the midst of this global demand shift, the Helium Act dictates a new procedure for pricing and distributing the gas through a reserve that historically functioned as a loose “oligarchy.” The new procedure requires prices to be determined by the open market through auctions and a survey of market prices, as opposed to increasing prices according to the consumer price index. Response to these changes has caused temporary shortages, price increases, and a significant increase in the development of the helium extraction technologies used to produce helium from formerly marginal sources. Technologies are being developed and refined to extract helium from formerly low-yielding natural gas fields containing much lower amounts of helium than the previously considered economic threshold of 0.3%. Combining these transformative policies with the potential for new and significant global supplies from Qatar, Algeria, and Russia could lead to new and unforeseen market behaviors and reactions from global helium markets. The objective of the project is to analyze the global helium markets.

  6. The Economic Benefits of Generation Revenue Assessment in Pool-Based Market Model for Restructured Electricity Supply Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ngadiron Zuraidah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The electricity supply industry had undergo deregulation and restructuring toward becoming a more transparent and competitive electricity market environment. The pool market model is amongst the most preferred electricity market model. Even though it is a safe option to be more competitive and transparent electricity supply industry, there are issues on the welfare of the generators involved. This paper addresses the pricing issue in the pool market by extending the capacity payment mechanism in the single auction power pool. In the proposed model, the approach of minimum capacity payment involving the efficiency of the generators is introduced. A case study is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. An economic analysis is performed to highlight the merits of the proposed model with the pure pool in term of generation revenue.

  7. Customer segmentation model based on value generation for marketing strategies formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Julio Cuadros

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cuando se está decidiendo en qué segmento invertir o cómo distribuir el presupuesto de marketing, los Gerentes corren el riesgo de terminar tomando decisiones de manera general sin considerar el verdadero impacto que tiene cada cliente o segmento de clientes en las utilidades de la organización. En este artículo, se propone un modelo de segmentación de clientes que considera en primera instancia el cálculo de tres dimensiones: el valor de cliente en su ciclo de vida, el valor actual y la lealtad; para posteriormente construir los segmentos mediante mapas auto-organizados. La efectividad del modelo se probó en un Ingenio Azucarero donde se identificaron 9 segmentos de interés para la toma de decisiones de marketing.

  8. Multifractal features of EUA and CER futures markets by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis based on empirical model decomposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Guangxi; Xu, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Basing on daily price data of carbon emission rights in futures markets of Certified Emission Reduction (CER) and European Union Allowances (EUA), we analyze the multiscale characteristics of the markets by using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) based on EMD. The complexity of the daily returns of CER and EUA futures markets changes with multiple time scales and multilayered features. The two markets also exhibit clear multifractal characteristics and long-range correlation. We employ shuffle and surrogate approaches to analyze the origins of multifractality. The long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions significantly contribute to multifractality. Furthermore, we analyze the influence of high returns on multifractality by using threshold method. The multifractality of the two futures markets is related to the presence of high values of returns in the price series.

  9. Study on Triopoly Dynamic Game Model Based on Different Demand Forecast Methods in the Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhai Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of inaccurate demand beliefs on dynamics of a Triopoly game is studied. We suppose that all the players make their own estimations on possible demand with errors. A dynamic Triopoly game with such demand belief is set up. Based on this model, existence and local stable region of the equilibriums are investigated by 3D stable regions of Nash equilibrium point. The complex dynamics, such as bifurcation scenarios and route to chaos, are displayed in 2D bifurcation diagrams, in which e1 and α are negatively related to each other. Basins of attraction are investigated and we found that the attraction domain becomes smaller with the increase in price modification speed, which indicates that all the players’ output must be kept within a certain range so as to keep the system stable. Feedback control method is used to keep the system at an equilibrium state.

  10. Customer segmentation model based on value generation for marketing strategies formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Julio Cuadros

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available When deciding in which segment to invest or how to distribute the marketing budget, managers generally take risks in making decisions without considering the real impact every client or segment has over organizational profits. In this paper, a segmentation framework is proposed that considers, firstly, the calculation of customer lifetime value, the current value, and client loyalty, and then the building of client segments by self-organized maps. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated with an empirical study in a cane sugar mill where a total of 9 segments of interest were identified for decision making.

  11. Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V.; Barth, R.; Brand, H.; Weber, C.; Voll, O.

    2006-01-01

    The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

  12. Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Barth, R.; Brand, H. [IER, Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany); Weber, C.; Voll, O. [Univ. of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2006-01-15

    The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

  13. A Market-Based Virtual Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Træholt, Chresten; Poulsen, Bjarne

    2009-01-01

    The fast growing penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) and the continuing trend towards a more liberalized electricity market requires more efficient energy management strategies to handle both emerging technical and economic issues. In this paper, a market-based Virtual Power Plant...... (MBVPP) model is proposed which provides individual DER units the accesses to current electricity markets. General bidding scenario and price signal scenario as two optional operation scenarios are operated by one MBVPP. In the end, a use case of a MBVPP with micro Combined Heat and Power (μCHP) systems...

  14. Noncooperative models of permit markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd

    2011-07-15

    The applicability of some popular and basic permit market theories has been questioned. Drawing on noncooperative equilibrium theory for pure exchange economies, this article adapts several well-established alternative models to permit exchange. Some qualitative properties of the associated equilibria are provided, including two games with equilibria that in a sense coincide. Nevertheless, as there exist quite a few models potentially applicable to emissions trading, with equilibria that range from autarky to Pareto optimality, it seems that economics lacks a broadly accepted basic theory for permit markets. (Author)

  15. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  16. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  17. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  18. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuewen Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO. Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm.

  19. >From naive to sophisticated behavior in multiagents-based financial market models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansilla, R.

    2000-09-01

    The behavior of physical complexity and mutual information function of the outcome of a model of heterogeneous, inductive rational agents inspired by the El Farol Bar problem and the Minority Game is studied. The first magnitude is a measure rooted in the Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory and the second a measure related to Shannon's information entropy. Extensive computer simulations were done, as a result of which, is proposed an ansatz for physical complexity of the type C(l)=lα and the dependence of the exponent α from the parameters of the model is established. The accuracy of our results and the relationship with the behavior of mutual information function as a measure of time correlation of agents choice are discussed.

  20. From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

    2007-01-01

    Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

  1. From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

  2. A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A Convex Model of Risk-Based Unit Commitment for Day-Ahead Market Clearing Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Ning; Kang, Chongqing; Xia, Qing

    2015-01-01

    The integration of wind power requires the power system to be sufficiently flexible to accommodate its forecast errors. In the market clearing process, the scheduling of flexibility relies on the manner in which the wind power uncertainty is addressed in the unit commitment (UC) model. This paper...... and are considered in both the objective functions and the constraints. The RUC model is shown to be convex and is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem using relaxation and piecewise linearization. The proposed RUC model is tested using a three-bus system and an IEEE RTS79 system...... that the risk modeling facilitates a strategic market clearing procedure with a reasonable computational expense....

  4. A complex bid model and strategy for dispatchable loads in real-time market-based demand response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Cuk, V.; Kamphuis, I.G.; Kling, W.L.

    2014-01-01

    The power system is moving into the new era of Smart Grid with the help of advance ICT and other developed technologies. These advancements made the demand response as an integral part of power and energy systems. Nowadays, the concept of Energy bidding is emerging in the Market-based Demand

  5. Market-Based Fisheries Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høst, Jeppe Engset

    a timely, critical insight into the social, cultural and economic aspects and consequences of market-based fisheries management. The privatization of fish quotas in Denmark represents one of the most far-reaching and comprehensive privatization schemes of its kind and has been widely promoted as a market......-based system with innovative social safeguards. This work critically examines this privatization of fish resources, combining quantitative and qualitative material to provide new understanding of fish quotas and their social value. Scholars with an interest in privatization and the socio-economic aspects...... of fisheries, and those working with NGOs, fishers and fisheries, and concerned with political conflicts will all value the research presented here....

  6. A State-Based Approach to Building a Liquid National Market for Renewable Energy Certificates: The REC-EX Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berendt, Christopher B.

    2006-01-01

    RECs are the currency driving the growth of renewable energy markets and the sale of RECs from renewable energy generation projects could promise a predictable return. But the existing REC markets in the U.S. sorely lack the liquidity needed to make good on that promise. The author proposes a Renewable Energy Certificate Exchange program rooted in the construction of a national trading platform for RECs in tandem with the execution of a new agreement among the states with REC-based renewable portfolio standards. (author)

  7. The investor behavior and futures market volatility A theory and empirical study based on the OLG model and high-frequency data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yun Wang; Renhai Hua; Zongcheng Zhang

    2011-01-01

    Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the futures volatility could attect the investor behavior and what trading strategy different investors could adopt when they meet different information conditions.Design/methodology/approach-This study introduces a two-period overlapping generation model (OLG) model into the future market and set the investor behavior model based on the future contract price,which can also be extended to complete and incomplete information.It provides the equilibrium solution and uses cuprum tick data in SHFE to conduct the empirical analysis.Findings-The two-period OLG model based on the future market is consistent with the practical situation;second,the sufficient information investors such as institutional adopt reversal trading patterns generally;last,the insufficient information investors such as individual investors adopt momentum trading patterns in general.Research limitations/implications-Investor trading behavior is always an important issue in the behavioral finance and market supervision,but the related research is scarce.Practical implications-The conclusion shows that the investors' behavior in Chinese future market is different from the Chinese stock market.Originality/value-This study empirically analyzes and verifies the different types of trading strategies investors could;investors such as institutional ones adopt reversal trading patterns generally;while investors such as individual investors adopt momentum trading patterns in general.

  8. Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models for the day-ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day-ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.

  9. Forecasting the Electricity Demand and Market Shares in Retail Electricity Market Based on System Dynamics and Markov Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Qingyou Yan; Chao Qin; Mingjian Nie; Le Yang

    2018-01-01

    Due to the deregulation of retail electricity market, consumers can choose retail electric suppliers freely, and market entities are facing fierce competition because of the increasing number of new entrants. Under these circumstances, forecasting the changes in all market entities, when market share stabilized, is important for suppliers making marketing decisions. In this paper, a market share forecasting model was established based on Markov chain, and a system dynamics model was construct...

  10. Dynamic market behaviour of autonomous network based power systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokic, A.; Wittebol, E.H.M.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.

    2006-01-01

    Dynamic models of real-time markets are important since they lead to additional insights of the behavior and stability of power system markets. The main topic of this paper is the analysis of real-time market dynamics in a novel power system structure that is based on the concept of autonomous

  11. Diffusion of innovations in social interaction systems. An agent-based model for the introduction of new drugs in markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pombo-Romero, Julio; Varela, Luis M; Ricoy, Carlos J

    2013-06-01

    The existence of imitative behavior among consumers is a well-known phenomenon in the field of Economics. This behavior is especially common in markets determined by a high degree of innovation, asymmetric information and/or price-inelastic demand, features that exist in the pharmaceutical market. This paper presents evidence of the existence of imitative behavior among primary care physicians in Galicia (Spain) when choosing treatments for their patients. From this and other evidence, we propose a dynamic model for determining the entry of new drugs into the market. To do this, we introduce the structure of the organization of primary health care centers and the presence of groups of doctors who are specially interrelated, as well as the existence of commercial pressure on doctors. For modeling purposes, physicians are treated as spins connected in an exponentially distributed complex network of the Watts-Strogatz type. The proposed model provides an explanation for the differences observed in the patterns of the introduction of technological innovations in different regions. The main cause of these differences is the different structure of relationships among consumers, where the existence of small groups that show a higher degree of coordination over the average is particularly influential. The evidence presented, together with the proposed model, might be useful for the design of optimal strategies for the introduction of new drugs, as well as for planning policies to manage pharmaceutical expenditure.

  12. Models of the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

    1991-01-01

    Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

  13. Limited Commitment Models of the Labour Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Thomas; Tim Worrall

    2007-01-01

    We present an overview of models of long-term self-enforcing labour con- tracts in which risk-sharing is the dominant motive for contractual solutions. A base model is developed which is sufficiently general to encompass the two-agent problem central to most of the literature, including variable hours. We consider two-sided limited commitment and look at its implications for aggregate labour market variables. We consider the implications for empirical testing and the available empirical evide...

  14. Rethinking exchange market models as optimization algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luquini, Evandro; Omar, Nizam

    2018-02-01

    The exchange market model has mainly been used to study the inequality problem. Although the human society inequality problem is very important, the exchange market models dynamics until stationary state and its capability of ranking individuals is interesting in itself. This study considers the hypothesis that the exchange market model could be understood as an optimization procedure. We present herein the implications for algorithmic optimization and also the possibility of a new family of exchange market models

  15. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

  16. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M Wray

    Full Text Available Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space, and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space, numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock

  17. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the

  18. The 4s web-marketing mix model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Constantinides, Efthymios

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm,

  19. Modelling Danish local CHP on market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Hans V.; Riisom, Jannik; Schaumburg-Müller, Camilla

    2004-01-01

    with the liberalisation process of the energy sectors of the EU countries, it is however anticipated that Danish local CHP are to begin operating on market conditions within the year 2005. This means that the income that the local CHPs previously gained from selling electricity at the feed-in tariff is replaced in part...... the consequences of acting in a liberalised market for a given CHP plant, based on the abovementioned bottom-up model. The key assumption determining the bottom line is the electricity spot price. The formation of the spot price in the Nordic area depends heavily upon the state of the water reservoirs in Norway...

  20. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav; Vosvrda, Miloslav

    2018-01-01

    We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized facts such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model utility from the other side and look for the combination of parameters which yields return dynamics of the efficient market in the view of the efficient market hypothesis. Working with the Ising model, we are able to present nicely interpretable results as the model is based on only two parameters. Apart from showing the results of our simulation study, we offer a new interpretation of the Ising model parameters via inverse temperature and entropy. We show that in fact market frictions (to a certain level) and herding behavior of the market participants do not go against market efficiency but what is more, they are needed for the markets to be efficient.

  1. High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

    2008-02-01

    Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

  2. Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jolita Jezukevičiūtė; Vida Davidavičienė

    2014-01-01

    The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalys...

  3. Brand marketing model on social networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jezukevičiūtė, Jolita; Davidavičienė, Vida

    2014-01-01

    Paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions on social networks. This analysis led to the creation of improved brand marketing model on social networks, which will contribute to the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increase competitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore, the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hot research area for brand marketing model on social networks. The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratory an...

  4. The BERR gas market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-10-01

    Security of supply is one of the key objectives in the UK's department of Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) gas market model. BERR found that a useful way to measure energy security was to estimate future 'expected energy unserved'. This comprises a combination of possible levels of shortfall between supply and demand and other probabilities to give a probability-weighted amount of unserved demand. BERR has also studied the conditions (inputs) that are likely to result in lower expected energy unserved, i.e. it has identified the drivers of security of supply and has developed a framework for categorising these drivers

  5. Modeling market power in Korea's emerging power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Nam-sung; Niemeyer, Victor

    2007-01-01

    The Korean power market is being formed from the unbundled generation, transmission and distribution assets of Korea Electric Power Corporation. The KEPCO generation has been allocated to six independent gencos with a combined generating capacity of 46,629 MW in 2002. This gave an 11% margin over the peak load that year (41,921 MW). One of the concerns for any power market is whether individual participants can increase profits (and prices) by withholding generation from the market. To address this concern, a Cournot-based model of Korean power system was created and applied to a set of loads representing the load duration curve for Korea's system loads in 2002. Our simulation results show a strong possibility for exercise of market power to increase market price in Korean market. Under tight market conditions, even 1 GW of withholding can cause a large increase in market price. If loads unexpectedly grow faster than the 5% recent experience, the gencos will have the collective ability and incentive to spike prices further. Vesting contracts can reduce the incentive to act strategically. Requiring that the gencos offer 50% of their capacity in long-term forward contracts greatly reduces the payoff to act strategically, and requiring vesting for 75% of their capacity results in prices that are essentially the same as the competitive equilibrium. Depending on the price for the vesting contracts, this policy can reduce the incentives to add new generation by gencos or the competitive fringe. Another approach to reducing the effects of market power is establishing demand-response programs, simulated here by increasing the elasticity of overall demand. These programs can reduce the incentives to withhold capacity, but to a lesser degree than vesting contracts. The genco with the greatest ability to influence prices through withholding is the largest, KNHP. However, acting on its own, without the support of the other gencos, its ability to raise prices is limited. This

  6. The 4s web-marketing mix model

    OpenAIRE

    Constantinides, Efthymios

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm, is also a poor choice in the case of virtual marketing and identifies two main limitations of the framework in online environments: the drastically diminished role of the Ps and the lack of any st...

  7. Impulse-response analysis of the market share attraction model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a simulation-based technique to calculate impulse-response functions and their confidence intervals in a market share attraction model [MCI]. As an MCI model implies a reduced form model for the logs of relative market shares, simulation techniques have to be used to obtain

  8. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  9. Viral marketing as epidemiological model

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Helena Sofia; Fonseca, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and received by the target market through person-to-person transmission. This specific marketing communication strategy is commonly referred as viral marketing. Due to this similarity between an epidemic and the viral marketing process and because the understanding of...

  10. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1996-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  11. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  12. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  13. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  14. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  15. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Advertising effects in Sznajd marketing model

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Schulze

    2002-01-01

    The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, are applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice is the smaller is the amount of advertising needed to convince the whole market

  17. Advertising in the Sznajd Marketing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Christian

    The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, is applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice, the smaller the amount of advertising is needed to convince the whole market.

  18. Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolita Jezukevičiūtė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalysis of a single case study revealed a brand marketingsocial networking tools that affect consumers the most. Basedon information analysis and methodological studies, develop abrand marketing model on social networks.

  19. Does size matter? : An empirical study modifying Fama & French's three factor model to detect size-effect based on turnover in the Swedish markets

    OpenAIRE

    Boros, Daniel; Eriksson, Claes

    2014-01-01

    This thesis investigates whether the estimation of the cost of equity (or the expected return) in the Swedish market should incorporate an adjustment for a company’s size. This is what is commonly known as the size-effect, first presented by Banz (1980) and has later been a part of models for estimating cost of equity, such as Fama & French’s three factor model (1992). The Fama & French model was developed based on empirical research. Since the model was developed, the research on the...

  20. Decision support for choice optimal power generation projects: Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Zhihong; Yang Kun; Sun Yaowei; Yuan Jiahai; Zhang Hongwei; Zhang Zhizheng

    2006-01-01

    In 2002, China began to inspire restructuring of the electric power sector to improve its performance. Especially, with the rapid increase of electricity demand in China, there is a need for non-utility generation investment that cannot be met by government finance alone. However, a first prerequisite is that regulators and decision-makers (DMs) should carefully consider how to balance the need to attract private investment against the policy objectives of minimizing monopoly power and fostering competitive markets. So in the interim term of electricity market, a decentralized decision-making process should eventually replace the centralized generation capacity expansion planning. In this paper, firstly, on the basis of the current situation, a model for evaluating generation projects by comprehensive utilization of fuzzy appraisal and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is developed. Secondly, a case study of generation project evaluation in China is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the model in selecting optimal generation projects and attracting private investors. In the case study, with considerations of attracting adequate private investment and promoting energy conservation in China, five most promising policy instruments selected as evaluation factors include project duration, project costs, predicted on-grid price level, environmental protection, enterprise credit grading and performance. Finally, a comprehensive framework that enables the DM to have better concentration and to make more sound decisions by combining the model proposed with modern computer science is designed

  1. Comparison the Application of PBL (Project Based Learning and PBL (Problem Based Learning Learning Model on Online Marketing Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Dini Mardani

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this study are (1 the application of learning PjBL with PBL to improve study results students, (2 assessing the domain affective, cognitive, and psychomotor, (3 the difference study results use the PjBL with PBL to improve study results students. The research is research quantitative and including research apparent experiment (quasi eksperiment by taking sample class two classes X PM 1 as a class experiment and class X PM 2 as a class control. Research instruments used for data collection namely: (1 tests to pretes and postest used to determine the cognitive assessment, (2 sheets observation affective, (3 sheets of the process for the psychomotor. The trial research instruments use the validity and reabilitas. Analysis techniques data using: (1 test a prerequisite analysis consisting of normality test and the homogeneity (2 T test unpaired which ended with the help of computer programs spss. Based on the result of this research can be concluded that: (1 the application of PjBL (Project Based Learning and PBL (Problem Based Learning should be conducted well in accordance syntax learning, (2 assessing the cognitive students have a difference and class experiment having an average higher than class control, (3 assessing the results affective students have a difference and on the application of PjBL is better than PBL.

  2. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  3. Market based generation: A promising market management option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqi, R.

    1992-01-01

    It is proposed to ease the tension between demand management and supply side management at electric utilities through the introduction of a concept called market management. Market management provides a framework for developing and evaluating the attractiveness of new products and services such as dispersed generation hardware, implementation services, and complementary pricing structures. A market management strategy is the definition of market segments, creating products for those segments, evaluation of the profitability of the product-segment combinations, commitment of resources to those segments, and development of product and marketing plans for those segments. A brief analysis of backup generation is presented as an example of market management. In this example, the customer that is backed up shares some portion of the capital and maintenance costs of the backup unit through priority service rates; the utility and customers that are not backed up can obtain the use of the generating resource but pay only a portion of its costs. Backup generation programs have been found to provide utilities with the ability to meet peak load requirements more cheaply than by investing in peaking capacity. Other benefits for utilities include protection of market share, more efficient rates, and a new source of revenues. With the advances in the technology of small-scale generation, utilities can examine bundling various pricing options with market based generation to offer alternative value-added service options to customer segments with demand characteristics that make these technologies attractive. 3 figs

  4. Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); D.M. Hanssens (Dominique)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe question of long-run market response lies at the heart of any marketing strategy that tries to create a sustainable competitive advantage for the firm or brand. A key challenge, however, is that only short-run results of marketing actions are readily observable. Persistence modeling

  5. Marketing research model of competitive environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasilya Dmitriy

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available To support its competitive advantages in current market conditions, each company needs to choose better ways of guaranteeing its favorable competitive position. In this regard, considerable interest lies in the structuring and algorithmization of marketing research processes that provide the information background of such choice. The article is devoted to modeling the process of marketing research of competitive environment.

  6. Value Based International Relationship Marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dr. Ulrich Scholz

    2009-01-01

    The developement of a "general theory" of relationship marketing must be considered as distant vision rather than as imminent reality.We now use the existing stock of knowledge to identify some largely unexplored,yet relevant, aspects of relationship marketing and call for these issues to be

  7. Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

  8. Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated

  9. Motor Gasoline Market Model documentation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Motor Gasoline Market Model (MGMM), describe its basic approach and to provide detail on model functions. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. The MGMM performs a short-term (6- to 9-month) forecast of demand and price for motor gasoline in the US market; it also calculates end of month stock levels. The model is used to analyze certain market behavior assumptions or shocks and to determine the effect on market price, demand and stock level

  10. APPROACHING TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION ON BASE OF LOWERING RISKS OF UKRAINIAN CONSUMERS AT WINE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Starostina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development of theoretical principles of conception of the perceived risk is considered. Methodology of marketing research of the perceived risks at the market of dry wine of Kyiv is shown. Searching questions, hypotheses, methods of statistical verification of hypotheses of marketing research are shown. Estimation of dry wine customers of separate components of the perceived risk and strategies of their decline are described. Concrete directions of the development of market strategy and marketing-mix, which take into account the estimation of the perceived risks and strategies of their diminishing, are offered.

  11. The utility target market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leng, G.J.; Martin, J.

    1994-01-01

    A new model (the Utility Target Market Model) is used to evaluate the economic benefits of photovoltaic (PV) power systems located at the electrical utility customer site. These distributed PV demand-side generation systems can be evaluated in a similar manner to other demand-side management technologies. The energy and capacity values of an actual PV system located in the service area of the New England Electrical System (NEES) are the two utility benefits evaluated. The annual stream of energy and capacity benefits calculated for the utility are converted to the installed cost per watt that the utility should be willing to invest to receive this benefit stream. Different discount rates are used to show the sensitivity of the allowable installed cost of the PV systems to a utility's average cost of capital. Capturing both the energy and capacity benefits of these relatively environmentally friendly distributed generators, NEES should be willing to invest in this technology when the installed cost per watt declines to ca $2.40 using NEES' rated cost of capital (8.78%). If a social discount rate of 3% is used, installation should be considered when installed cost approaches $4.70/W. Since recent installations in the Sacramento Municipal Utility District have cost between $7-8/W, cost-effective utility applications of PV are close. 22 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  12. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbes, Carsten; Friege, Christian

    2015-01-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [de

  13. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  14. Cystic echinococcosis in marketed offal of sheep in Basrah, Iraq: Abattoir-based survey and a probabilistic model estimation of the direct economic losses due to hydatid cyst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulhameed, Mohanad F; Habib, Ihab; Al-Azizz, Suzan A; Robertson, Ian

    2018-02-01

    Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a highly endemic parasitic zoonosis in Iraq with substantial impacts on livestock productivity and human health. The objectives of this study were to study the abattoir-based occurrence of CE in marketed offal of sheep in Basrah province, Iraq, and to estimate, using a probabilistic modelling approach, the direct economic losses due to hydatid cysts. Based on detailed visual meat inspection, results from an active abattoir survey in this study revealed detection of hydatid cysts in 7.3% (95% CI: 5.4; 9.6) of 631 examined sheep carcasses. Post-mortem lesions of hydatid cyst were concurrently present in livers and lungs of more than half (54.3% (25/46)) of the positive sheep. Direct economic losses due to hydatid cysts in marketed offal were estimated using data from government reports, the one abattoir survey completed in this study, and expert opinions of local veterinarians and butchers. A Monte-Carlo simulation model was developed in a spreadsheet utilizing Latin Hypercube sampling to account for uncertainty in the input parameters. The model estimated that the average annual economic losses associated with hydatid cysts in the liver and lungs of sheep marketed for human consumption in Basrah to be US$72,470 (90% Confidence Interval (CI); ±11,302). The mean proportion of annual losses in meat products value (carcasses and offal) due to hydatid cysts in the liver and lungs of sheep marketed in Basrah province was estimated as 0.42% (90% CI; ±0.21). These estimates suggest that CE is responsible for considerable livestock-associated monetary losses in the south of Iraq. These findings can be used to inform different regional CE control program options in Iraq.

  15. Modelling of demand response and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  16. Marketing Education on a Shoestring: A Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shreeve, William; And Others

    Few educators envision themselves as marketing or public relations experts, yet economic reality is forcing many academicians into these roles. Over the past four years, the Eastern Washington University Department of Education has developed a successful marketing model for educators. The model begins with a successful reform of department…

  17. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  18. Modeling the marketing strategy-performance relationship : towards an hierarchical marketing performance framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Zengerink, Evelien

    2001-01-01

    Accurate measurement of marketing performance is an important topic for both marketing academics and marketing managers. Many researchers have recognized that marketing performance measurement should go beyond financial measurement. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework that models

  19. A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turksen, I. B.; Willson, Ian A.

    1992-01-01

    Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share

  20. Development of a virtual power market model to investigate strategic and collusive behavior of market players

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, Miadreza; Parsa Moghaddam, Mohsen; Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohamad Kazem

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a virtual power market model is proposed to investigate the behavior of power market players from regulator's point of view. In this approach, strategic players are modeled in a multi-agent environment. These agents which are virtual representative of actual players forecast the prices and participate in the markets, exactly the same as real world situation. In addition, the role of ISO is encountered by using security constraint unit commitment (SCUC) and security constraint economic dispatch (SCED) solutions. Moreover, the interaction between market players is modeled using a heuristic dynamic game theory algorithm based on the supply function equilibria (SFE). In addition to the collusive behavior, using the proposed model, the short-term strategic behavior of players, which their effects will appear in long-term, can be simulated. The proposed model enables the market regulators to make decision before implementing new market rules with the confidence of their results. To represent the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study including wind power plants is considered and the impact of various market rules on players’ behavior is simulated and discussed. Numerical studies indicate that simulating the strategic and collusive behavior prior to any change in the market rules is necessary. - Highlights: • A virtual power market model is proposed using a heuristic dynamic game theory. • The proposed model can simulate the behavior of market players in a certain period. • This model can evaluate the oligopoly, collusive and strategic behavior of players. • The price uncertainty and security constraint are considered. • Neglecting strategic behavior of players can cause adverse consequences

  1. A model of the world uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trieu, L.H.; Savage, E.; Dwyer, G.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed and an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on the spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingly being reflected in contract agreements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this relationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be expected after 1993 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply entering from non-traditional market sources. (Author)

  2. A Study Effects Architectural Marketing Capabilities on Performance Marketing unit Based on: Morgan et al case: Past Industry in Tehran

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Reza Dalvi; Robabe Seifi

    2014-01-01

    Over a period of time architectural marketing capabilities combination of knowledge and skills develop in to capabilities. These architectural marketing capabilities have been identified as one of the important ways firms can achieve a competitive advantage The following research tests effects architectural marketing capabilities on performance marketing unit Based on a survey .a structural equation model was developed to test our hypotheses. the study develops a structural model linking arch...

  3. MODEL OF MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS EFFECTIVENESS IN THE BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Jerman, Damjana; Završnik, Bruno

    2012-01-01

    Much of the research into marketing communications has focused on the consumer market with little regard to date for the business-to-business market. This paper focuses on a development and testing of a model of marketing communication effectiveness in the business-to-business market. Building on past research from the marketing communications and business-to-business marketing literature, the model (which incorporates facets of the marketing communication objectives, bidirectional communicat...

  4. An options model for electric power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Kanchan; Ramesh, V.C.

    1997-01-01

    The international electric utility industry is undergoing a radical transformation from an essentially regulated and monopolistic industry to an industry made uncertain with impending deregulation and the advent of competitive forces. This paper investigates the development of an options market for bulk power trading in a market setup while considering power system planning and operational constraints and/or requirements. In so doing it considers the different market based financial derivative instruments while can be used to trade electrical power in bulk and examines how established tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) may be applied in helping to develop a price for bulk power transactions under a market based setup. (Author)

  5. Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

    1979-01-01

    An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

  6. A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Mason

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

  7. Investor structure and the price-volume relationship in a continuous double auction market: An agent-based modeling perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Bi, Zhengzheng; Shen, Dehua

    2017-02-01

    This paper investigates the impact of investor structure on the price-volume relationship by simulating a continuous double auction market. Connected with the underlying mechanisms of the price-volume relationship, i.e., the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) and the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis (SIAH), the simulation results show that: (1) there exists a strong lead-lag relationship between the return volatility and trading volume when the number of informed investors is close to the number of uninformed investors in the market; (2) as more and more informed investors entering the market, the lead-lag relationship becomes weaker and weaker, while the contemporaneous relationship between the return volatility and trading volume becomes more prominent; (3) when the informed investors are in absolute majority, the market can achieve the new equilibrium immediately. Therefore, we can conclude that the investor structure is a key factor in affecting the price-volume relationship.

  8. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.; Pereira, Ivo F.; Fernandes, Ricardo; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Definition of an ontology allowing the communication between multi-agents systems. • Social welfare evaluation in different electricity markets. • Demonstration of the use of the proposed ontology between two multi-agents systems. • Strategic biding in electricity markets. • European electricity markets comparison. - Abstract: The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution

  9. Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

    2003-01-01

    Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

  10. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies; Marketing Erneuerbarer Energien. Grundlagen, Geschaeftsmodelle, Fallbeispiele

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbes, Carsten [HfWU Nuertingen-Geislingen, Nuertingen (Germany); Friege, Christian (ed.)

    2015-07-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [German] Wie vermarktet man Oekostrom oder Biomethan? Was ist der richtige Preis fuer Erneuerbare Energien und wie gestaltet man den optimalen Einsatz von Social Media? Welche Auswirkungen haben das EEG oder die Elektromobilitaet auf das Gruenstrom-Marketing? Funktioniert Direktvertrieb oder ist Online-Marketing der Erfolgsgarant? Antworten auf diese und viele weitere grundlegende Fragen liefert dieser Band mit Beitraegen fuehrender Wissenschaftler und renommierter Praktiker. Erstmals beschreiben sie hier in strukturierter Form die Grundlagen der Vermarktung von Erneuerbaren Energien, fuehren in die gesetzlichen und marktlichen Besonderheiten ein und stellen neue Geschaeftsmodelle vor. Das Buch fusst auf aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen, behandelt saemtliche fuer Praktiker wichtige Fragen der Vermarktung, liefert Fallbeispiele und konkrete Empfehlungen.

  11. Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno

  12. Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.

    2003-01-01

    For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)

  13. Integration of Financial Markets in Post Global Financial Crises and Implications for British Financial Sector: Analysis Based on A Panel VAR Model

    OpenAIRE

    Nasir, M; Du, M

    2017-01-01

    This study analyses the dynamics of integration among global financial markets in the context of Global Financial Crisis (2008) by employing a Panel Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model on the monthly data of nine countries and three markets from Jan 2003 to Oct 2015. It was found that there has been a shift in the association among the global financial markets since Global Financial Crisis (GFC).Moreover, the British financial sectors in Post-GFC world clearly showed a change in the association...

  14. Marketing Model for Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahin, Jaime

    In order to survive projected enrollment decreases and to better serve nontraditional students, community colleges must develop marketing plans that make effective use of five community resources: local school system personnel, business and industry, civic and social service agencies, college personnel, and the local media. In approaching these…

  15. Quantitative models in marketing research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractRecent advances in data collection and data storage techniques enable marketing researchers to study the individual characteristics of a large range of transactions and purchases, in particular the effects of household-specific characteristics. This book presents the most important and

  16. Online marketing improvement based on marketing psychology, case: Roomsevilla

    OpenAIRE

    Laakkonen, Roosa

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to study and find out the best cost-effective online marketing channels for a Spanish housing agency Roomsevilla in order to strengthen its online marketing. In addition, this thesis aims to find out how the case company can use marketing psychology in its online marketing. The theoretical part includes online marketing, marketing mix and marketing psycho- logy which were collected from various books, online journals and websites. Also Cialdini's 6 Principle...

  17. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  18. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  19. Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erie Febrian

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar's (2006 framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1, GARCH(3,1, and GARCH (1,1, respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.

  20. Dynamic Model of Market with Uninformed Market Maker

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin; Kopa, Miloš

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 5 (2017), s. 922-958 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : market maker * optimal decision * price and inventory * high frequency data * dynamic model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://www.library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/smid-0483753.pdf

  1. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  2. Real-time versus day-ahead market power in a hydro-based electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Tangerås, Thomas P.; Mauritzen, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    We analyse in a theoretical framework the link between real-time and day-ahead market performance in a hydro-based and imperfectly competitive wholesale electricity market. Theoretical predictions of the model are tested on data from the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool Spot (NPS).We reject the hypothesis that prices at NPS were at their competitive levels throughout the period under examination. The empirical approach uses equilibrium prices and quantities and does not rely on bid data nor o...

  3. K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review. ... Modelling has become a visible tool in many disciplines including marketing and several marketing models have ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  4. A conceptual model of political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    2005-01-01

    . The remaining four constructs are attitudinal, designed to capture the awareness of members to the activities and importance of stakeholder groups in society, both internal and external to the organisation. The model not only allows the level of a party's political market orientation to be assessed, but also......This article proposes eight constructs of a conceptual model of political market orientation, taking inspiration from the business and political marketing literature. Four of the constructs are 'behavioural' in that they aim to describe the process of how information flows through the organisation...

  5. Drivers of Adoption and Implementation of Internet-Based Marketing Channels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jørn Flohr; Mols, Niels Peter; Høst, Viggo

    2007-01-01

    This chapter analyses factors influencing manufacturers= adoption and implementation of Internet-based marketing channels, using models based on marketing channel and organisational innovation theory. Survey data from 1163 Danish, Finnish, and Swedish manufacturers form the empirical basis for te...

  6. A social model based on customers' profiles for analyzing the churning process in the mobile market of data plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postigo-Boix, Marcos; Melús-Moreno, José L.

    2018-04-01

    Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) present wireless services of the same kind in identical zones, clients select the service taking into account any element they consider relevant. Churning hits on the design of the network and the method to assign prices by MNOs, and of course their earnings. Therefore, MNOs try to reduce churn detecting potential churners before they leave the service. Our approach to churn prediction considers each customer individually. Previous research shows that members of the social circle of a subscriber may influence churn. Thus, many scenarios that describe social relations, and in which churning processes could be expected, set an emerging challenge with practical implications. This paper uses the Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) technique to model customers. The model's parameters include demographic and psychographic features as well as usage profiles according to their social behavior considering their customers' profiles. Our model modifies and extends an existing real social network generator algorithm that considers customer's profiles and homophily considerations to create connections. We show that using our approach, groups of customers with greater tendency to churn due to the influence of their social networks can be identified better.

  7. Analysis of Interactions of Key Stakeholders on B2C e-Markets - Agent Based Modelling and Simulation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Aleksandar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background/purpose: This paper discusses the application of ABMS - agent-based modelling and simulation in the analysis of customer behaviour on B2C e-commerce websites as well as in the analysis of various business decisions upon the effects of on-line sales. The continuous development and dynamics in the field of e-commerce requires application of advanced decision-making tools. These tools must be able to process, in a short time period, a large amount of data generated by the e-commerce systems and enable the use of acquired data for making quality business decisions.

  8. Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hui

    This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have

  9. Advancement of Marketing Developing Biotechnology-Based Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaidas Vilmantas

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article, in a complex way, analyzes the needs of marketing improvement in developing biotechnology­based business and highlights its role in the context of modern society and globalization challenges. The article distinguishes between the existing problems of biotechnology business, the present perspectives and specific characteristics of developing the marketing of biotechnological business. The paper represents the possibility of the substantial modernization of marketing tools with regard to modelling user’s behaviour, improvement in marketing strategy for the company, the correction of the elements of the marketing complex, changes in the marketing conception inside the company, product and service differentiation and renewal, the encouragement of expansion into other markets, variations in or the expansion of the target market, alternatives to the positioning strategy for the company, an increase in competitive ability and an internal impact of marketing on the varying elements. The article has referred to the analysis of scientific literature and research on the opinions of consumers and experts in the field in the context of biotechnology­based businesses.

  10. Novel indexes based on network structure to indicate financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Tao; Peng, Qinke; Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Jing

    2016-02-01

    There have been various achievements to understand and to analyze the financial market by complex network model. However, current studies analyze the financial network model but seldom present quantified indexes to indicate or forecast the price action of market. In this paper, the stock market is modeled as a dynamic network, in which the vertices refer to listed companies and edges refer to their rank-based correlation based on price series. Characteristics of the network are analyzed and then novel indexes are introduced into market analysis, which are calculated from maximum and fully-connected subnets. The indexes are compared with existing ones and the results confirm that our indexes perform better to indicate the daily trend of market composite index in advance. Via investment simulation, the performance of our indexes is analyzed in detail. The results indicate that the dynamic complex network model could not only serve as a structural description of the financial market, but also work to predict the market and guide investment by indexes.

  11. Emergent organization in a model market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Avinash Chand; Manchanda, Kaustubh; Ramaswamy, Ramakrishna

    2017-09-01

    We study the collective behaviour of interacting agents in a simple model of market economics that was originally introduced by Nørrelykke and Bak. A general theoretical framework for interacting traders on an arbitrary network is presented, with the interaction consisting of buying (namely consumption) and selling (namely production) of commodities. Extremal dynamics is introduced by having the agent with least profit in the market readjust prices, causing the market to self-organize. In addition to examining this model market on regular lattices in two-dimensions, we also study the cases of random complex networks both with and without community structures. Fluctuations in an activity signal exhibit properties that are characteristic of avalanches observed in models of self-organized criticality, and these can be described by power-law distributions when the system is in the critical state.

  12. Engineering approach to model and compute electric power markets settlements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, J.; Petrov, V.

    2006-01-01

    Back-office accounting settlement activities are an important part of market operations in Independent System Operator (ISO) organizations. A potential way to measure ISO market design correctness is to analyze how well market price signals create incentives or penalties for creating an efficient market to achieve market design goals. Market settlement rules are an important tool for implementing price signals which are fed back to participants via the settlement activities of the ISO. ISO's are currently faced with the challenge of high volumes of data resulting from the increasing size of markets and ever-changing market designs, as well as the growing complexity of wholesale energy settlement business rules. This paper analyzed the problem and presented a practical engineering solution using an approach based on mathematical formulation and modeling of large scale calculations. The paper also presented critical comments on various differences in settlement design approaches to electrical power market design, as well as further areas of development. The paper provided a brief introduction to the wholesale energy market settlement systems and discussed problem formulation. An actual settlement implementation framework and discussion of the results and conclusions were also presented. It was concluded that a proper engineering approach to this domain can yield satisfying results by formalizing wholesale energy settlements. Significant improvements were observed in the initial preparation phase, scoping and effort estimation, implementation and testing. 5 refs., 2 figs

  13. Institutional bases of the advertising market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    К.В. Кузьменко

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available  The article grounds a necessity of  organizational power of a “contract state” for the introduction and functioning of the norms of market constitution, it consists findings of the investigations of Ukrainian state’s typology. The institutional analysis of budget items has been used for the purpose of estimation the digree of approximation to the model of “contract state”. “Contract” state and the norms of market constitution are the indispensable conditions for the development of advertising market.

  14. Microeconomics of the ideal gas like market models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabarti, Anindya S.; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

    2009-10-01

    We develop a framework based on microeconomic theory from which the ideal gas like market models can be addressed. A kinetic exchange model based on that framework is proposed and its distributional features have been studied by considering its moments. Next, we derive the moments of the CC model (Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 167) as well. Some precise solutions are obtained which conform with the solutions obtained earlier. Finally, an output market is introduced with global price determination in the model with some necessary modifications.

  15. Jogo da Minoria: um modelo baseado em agentes aplicado ao mercado financeiro Minority Game: an agent-based model applied to financial market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Fernando Crepaldi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Nos últimos anos houve uma contribuição significativa dos físicos para a construção de um tipo de modelo baseado em agentes que busca reproduzir, em simulação computacional, o comportamento do mercado financeiro. Esse modelo, chamado Jogo da Minoria consiste de um grupo de agentes que vão ao mercado comprar ou vender ativos. Eles tomam decisões com base em estratégias e, por meio delas, os agentes estabelecem um intrincado jogo de competição e coordenação pela distribuição da riqueza. O modelo tem demonstrado resultados bastante ricos e surpreendentes, tanto na dinâmica do sistema como na capacidade de reproduzir características estatísticas e comportamentais do mercado financeiro. Neste artigo, são apresentadas a estrutura e a dinâmica do Jogo da Minoria, bem como as contribuições recentes relacionadas ao Jogo da Minoria denominado de Grande Canônico, que é um modelo mais bem ajustado às características do mercado financeiro e reproduz as regularidades estatísticas do preço dos ativos chamadas fatos estilizados.Over the past ten years physicists have made a significant contribution to the building of an agent-based model to reproduce the behavior of financial markets using computer simulation. This model, called the Minority Game, consists of a group of agents that buy or sell assets. They make decisions based on strategies, and through them the agents establish an intricate game of competition and coordination resulting in the distribution of wealth. The model has shown outstanding surprising results concerning both the dynamics of the system and the ability to reproduce statistical and behavior characteristics of the financial market. In this study, the structure and dynamics of the Minority Game and the recent contributions related to the Grand Canonical Minority game, a model which is better adapted to the characteristics of the financial market and reproduce the statistical regularities of asset prices (called

  16. Power system models - A description of power markets and outline of market modelling in Wilmar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, P.; Morthors, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Weber, C.; Snader, K.; Swider, D.; Ravn, H.

    2003-12-01

    This report is Deliverable 3.2 of the Wilmar project. The report describes the power markets in the Nordic countries and Germany, together with the market models to be implemented in the Wilmar Planning model-ling tool developed in the project. (au)

  17. On the Use of Structural Equation Models in Marketing Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenkamp, J.E.B.M.; Baumgartner, H.

    2000-01-01

    We reflect on the role of structural equation modeling (SEM) in marketing modeling and managerial decision making. We discuss some benefits provided by SEM and alert marketing modelers to several recent developments in SEM in three areas: measurement analysis, analysis of cross-sectional data, and

  18. Matrix Model for Choosing Green Marketing Sustainable Strategic Alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălina Sitnikov

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Green marketing examines the symbiotic role played by marketing in ensuring sustainable business, exploring issues concerning the environment and the way strategic decisions can influence it. At present, the environmental issues concern more and more the competitive approach any organization can implement. Based on this approach, organizations can gain competitive advantage by managing environmental variables and by developing and implementing green marketing strategies. Considering the importance and impact of green marketing, by using theoretical concepts and defining a set of research directions, the paper and the research conducted were focused on creating a matrix model for choosing the optimal green marketing strategy, oriented towards competitive advantage. The model is based on the correlation that can be established among the generic strategies of competitive advantage, the variables of extended marketing mix (7Ps and the green marketing strategy matrix. There are also analyzed the implications that may be generated within a company by the adoption of a green marketing strategy and its role in promoting the environmental benefits of products.

  19. Creating lift versus building the base : Current trends in marketing dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Bijmolt, T.H.A.; van Doorn, J.; Hanssens, D.M.; van Heerde, H.J.; Verhoef, P.C.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Markets are dynamic by nature; and marketing-efforts can be directed to stimulate, reduce, or to utilize these dynamics. The field of marketing dynamics aims at modeling the effects of marketing actions and policies on short-term performance ("lift") and on long-term performance ("base"). One of the

  20. On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jebabli, Ikram; Arouri, Mohamed; Teulon, Frédéric

    2014-01-01

    Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shock transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new time varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis and, namely after mid-2008, when stock markets become net transmitter of volatility shocks while crude oil becomes a net receiver. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance. - Highlights: • We study shock transmission between food, energy and financial markets. • We use a new time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility. • There is volatility spillover from oil and stock markets to food. • Volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis, namely after mid-2008. • Augmenting a portfolio of foods with oil or stocks increases its performance

  1. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  2. Advanced Modeling of Renewable Energy Market Dynamics: May 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, M.; Little, R.; Lloyd, K.; Malikov, G.; Passolt, G.; Arent, D.; Swezey, B.; Mosey, G.

    2007-08-01

    This report documents a year-long academic project, presenting selected techniques for analysis of market growth, penetration, and forecasting applicable to renewable energy technologies. Existing mathematical models were modified to incorporate the effects of fiscal policies and were evaluated using available data. The modifications were made based on research and classification of current mathematical models used for predicting market penetration. An analysis of the results was carried out, based on available data. MATLAB versions of existing and new models were developed for research and policy analysis.

  3. Value-Based Marketing: A Dsicussion of Issues and Trends in the Slaughter Cattle Market

    OpenAIRE

    Fausti, Scott W.; Diersen, Matthew A.; Qasmi, Bashir A.; Li, Jing

    2009-01-01

    Pricing and technological innovation are discussed within the context of the beef industry’s value-based marketing initiative. Cash and contract marketing practices for fed cattle are addressed with respect to slaughter volume and pricing methods (live, dressed, and grid). A methodology for estimating grid market share of weekly slaughter volume, based on USDA market reports (2004–2009), is introduced. Weekly grid market shares for the cash and contract markets are derived. Summary statis...

  4. A dynamic marketing model with best reply and inertia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bischi, Gian Italo; Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we consider a nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Farris et al. (2005) as a market share attraction model with two firms that decide marketing efforts over time according to best reply strategies with naïve expectations. The model also considers an adaptive adjustment toward best reply, a form of inertia or anchoring attitude, and we investigate the effects of heterogeneities among firms. A rich scenario of local and global bifurcations is obtained even with just two competing firms, and a comparison is proposed with apparently similar duopoly models based on repeated best reply dynamics with naïve expectations and adaptive adjustment.

  5. THE BERTRAND MODEL OF THE SINGLE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadasan Ioana

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Starting with the signification of the rationality hypothesis when the agent’s contentment is directly affected by the other agents’ decisions, the theory of games defines solutions for solving different situations of conflict. The economic actors have different behaviours of the Single Market. Oligopoly strategic behaviours were analysed by the Bertrand model. The two types revealed in the work show that strategic interactions are sensitive to the companies’ features, products and markets. Regarding the situation when we have an oligopoly competition, the companies make interdependent decisions in the environment affected by risk and uncertainty of the Single Market. For this reason it is an opportunity to study the structure of oligopoly type of of the Single Market with the aid of non – cooperative games.

  6. Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

  7. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  8. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  9. System dynamics modelling of the European demand for bio-based plastics: An analysis of scaling and learning effects and framework conditions on price competitiveness and market growth

    OpenAIRE

    Horvat, Djerdj; Wydra, Sven

    2017-01-01

    Bio-based plastics are used as raw materials in a wide range of applications and provide potential for mitigating climate change by lowering CO2 emissions. However, because of the high production costs compared to fossil-based alternative products, they are currently not cost competitive on the market. Moreover, the decrease of oil price as main antecedent of fossil-based plastics has even been diminishing their competiveness. Thus, the future of bio-based plastics on the market depends on th...

  10. A Market Dynamics Model for New Industrial Products and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Shmuel S. Oren; Michael H. Rothkopf

    1984-01-01

    New product planning models attempt to predict the market consequences of product line and product design decisions. One output of such models, especially those driven by subjective or market research data, is usually theoretical market shares based upon consumer preferences under idealized conditions. This paper describes a class of models that bridge the gap between such theoretical market shares and dynamic sales forecasts. This model accounts for differences in customer awareness of diffe...

  11. Neural Networks Modelling of Municipal Real Estate Market Rent Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muczyński Andrzej

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on the application of neural networks modelling of municipal real estate market rent rates. The test procedure was based on selected networks trained on the local real estate market data and transformation of the detected dependencies – through established models – to estimate the potential market rent rates of municipal premises. On this basis, the assessment of the adequacy of the actual market rent rates of municipal properties was made. Empirical research was conducted on the local real estate market of the city of Olsztyn in Poland. In order to describe the phenomenon of market rent rates formation an unidirectional three-layer network and a network of radial base was selected. Analyses showed a relatively low degree of convergence of the actual municipal rent rents with potential market rent rates. This degree was strongly varied depending on the type of business ran on the property and its’ social and economic impact. The applied research methodology and the obtained results can be used in order to rationalize municipal property management, including the activation of rental policy.

  12. The evolution of spillover effects between oil and stock markets across multi-scales using a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xueyong; An, Haizhong; Huang, Shupei; Wen, Shaobo

    2017-01-01

    Aiming to investigate the evolution of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in the time and frequency dimensions, we employed WTI crude oil prices, the S&P 500 (USA) index and the MICEX index (Russia) for the period Jan. 2003-Dec. 2014 as sample data. We first applied a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK method to examine the spillover features in frequency dimension. To consider the evolution of spillover effects in time dimension at multiple-scales, we then divided the full sample period into three sub-periods, pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period. The results indicate that spillover effects vary across wavelet scales in terms of strength and direction. By analysis the time-varying linkage, we found the different evolution features of spillover effects between the Oil-US stock market and Oil-Russia stock market. The spillover relationship between oil and US stock market is shifting to short-term while the spillover relationship between oil and Russia stock market is changing to all time scales. That result implies that the linkage between oil and US stock market is weakening in the long-term, and the linkage between oil and Russia stock market is getting close in all time scales. This may explain the phenomenon that the US stock index and the Russia stock index showed the opposite trend with the falling of oil price in the post-crisis period.

  13. The modelling of education services and labour markets from marketing position

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savchenko Sergii Olegovych

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The methodology of decision preparation was created and implemented. It is based on imitational modeling of cooperation between education and labor markets. The constant increasing of information volume, its dependence on external environment state and internal organization was also included into the methodology. The main aim is increasing of effectiveness of the system of higher education institution management.

  14. 78 FR 49508 - Tesoro Refining & Marketing Company LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-14

    ... Refining & Marketing Company LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes... proceeding of Tesoro Refining & Marketing Company LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an... of protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov...

  15. 75 FR 35017 - Brookfield Energy Marketing LP; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-21

    ... Energy Marketing LP; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... proceeding of Brookfield Energy Marketing LP's application for market-based rate authority, with an... protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov . To...

  16. 78 FR 16262 - Tesoro Refining & Marketing Company LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-14

    ... Refining & Marketing Company LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes... proceeding, of Tesoro Refining & Marketing Company LLC's application for market- based rate authority, with... submission of protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov...

  17. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  18. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  19. NEO-AMERICAN MARKET ECONOMY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiriţescu Dorel-Dumitru

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The American market economy system is the convergence point of two theoretical models: the neoclassic model (which excludes the state intervention and keynesist model (in which the state intervenes as decisional economic agent. the relaunch of American economy set off at the end of the last century in the same time with Ronald Reagan presidency and relies on a important financial and technological patrimony.

  20. A Concept of Location-Based Social Network Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tussyadiah, Iis

    2012-01-01

    A stimulus-response model of location-based social network marketing is conceptualized based on an exploratory investigation. Location-based social network applications are capable of generating marketing stimuli from merchant, competition-based, and connection-based rewards resulted from relevance...... and connectivity. Depending on consumption situations, consumer characteristics, and social network structure, these rewards lead to actual behavior that manifests in variety behavior (i.e., patronage to new places) and loyalty behavior (i.e., increased frequency of patronage to familiar places). This behavior...... implies changes in patterns of mobility, making this marketing approach particularly relevant for tourism and hospitality businesses. Managerial implications and recommendations for further studies are provided....

  1. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  2. Modeling financial markets by self-organized criticality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2015-10-01

    We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative pressure on market participants, showing how the spreading of information, based on a realistic imitative behavior, drives contagion and causes market fragility. In this model imitation is not intended as a change in the agent's group of origin, but is referred only to the price formation process. We introduce in the community also a variable number of random traders in order to study their possible beneficial role in stabilizing the market, as found in other studies. Finally, we also suggest some counterintuitive policy strategies able to dampen fluctuations by means of a partial reduction of information.

  3. Strategy-Based Segmentation of Industrial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhallen, Theo M.M.; Frambach, Ruud T.; Prabhu, Jaideep

    Segmentation of industrial markets is typically based on observable characteristics of firms such as their location and size. However, such variables have been found to be poor predictors of industrial buying behavior. To improve the effectiveness and power of existing approaches to industrial

  4. Redefining trade-based market manipulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelemans, Matthijs

    2008-01-01

    Trade-based market manipulation, which is usually described as trading shares to initiate a price change or to cause an artificial price, has received wide attention in policy and academic discussions, although the behavior is still poorly defined in both legal and economic literature. This Article

  5. Consumer Behaviour Model on the Furniture Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BEDNÁRIK, Éva

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces the furniture purchasing behaviour model. The study describes thebehaviour model and characteristics of decision making and the environmental factors affecting theindividuals besides emphasising the family character of furniture purchase. We introduce a chapterfrom the primary research verifying the model that analyses the validity of customer behaviour trendsdefined as elements of the impersonal environment on the furniture market. We touch on our lifestylebased segmentation model which is elaborated in our work in detail. The method of primary researchis quantitative, personal interview. While working out our research model we applied a method thatenables multi-level cross-section and cohort analyses. Our work has verified the need for trendresearches on the furniture market so we suggest the construction and the near-future launch of a trendresearch system consisting of several modules that reveals the specific factors on the furniture marketbesides verifying the validity of general behaviour trends.

  6. Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choustova, Olga Al.

    2007-01-01

    We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

  7. An adaptive stochastic model for financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernández, Juan Antonio; Benito, Rosa Marı´a; Losada, Juan Carlos

    2012-01-01

    An adaptive stochastic model is introduced to simulate the behavior of real asset markets. The model adapts itself by changing its parameters automatically on the basis of the recent historical data. The basic idea underlying the model is that a random variable uniformly distributed within an interval with variable extremes can replicate the histograms of asset returns. These extremes are calculated according to the arrival of new market information. This adaptive model is applied to the daily returns of three well-known indices: Ibex35, Dow Jones and Nikkei, for three complete years. The model reproduces the histograms of the studied indices as well as their autocorrelation structures. It produces the same fat tails and the same power laws, with exactly the same exponents, as in the real indices. In addition, the model shows a great adaptation capability, anticipating the volatility evolution and showing the same volatility clusters observed in the assets. This approach provides a novel way to model asset markets with internal dynamics which changes quickly with time, making it impossible to define a fixed model to fit the empirical observations.

  8. The Influence of Investor Number on a Microscopic Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellthaler, T.

    The stock market model of Levy, Persky, Solomon is simulated for much larger numbers of investors. While small markets can lead to realistically looking prices, the resulting prices of large markets oscillate smoothly in a semi-regular fashion.

  9. The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-11-06

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.

  10. An empirical and model study on automobile market in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ji-Ying; Qiu, Rong; Zhou, Yueping; He, Da-Ren

    2006-03-01

    We have done an empirical investigation on automobile market in Taiwan including the development of the possession rate of the companies in the market from 1979 to 2003, the development of the largest possession rate, and so on. A dynamic model for describing the competition between the companies is suggested based on the empirical study. In the model each company is given a long-term competition factor (such as technology, capital and scale) and a short-term competition factor (such as management, service and advertisement). Then the companies play games in order to obtain more possession rate in the market under certain rules. Numerical simulation based on the model display a competition developing process, which qualitatively and quantitatively agree with our empirical investigation results.

  11. A marketing model: applications for dietetic professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, S C; Moody, D L

    1986-01-01

    Traditionally, dietitians have communicated the availability of their services to the "public at large." The expectation was that the public would respond favorably to nutrition programs simply because there was a consumer need for them. Recently, however, both societal and consumer needs have changed dramatically, making old communication strategies ineffective and obsolete. The marketing discipline has provided a new model and new decision-making tools for many health professionals to use to more effectively make their services known to multiple consumer groups. This article provides one such model as applied to the dietetic profession. The model explores a definition of the business of dietetics, how to conduct an analysis of the environment, and, finally, the use of both in the choice of new target markets. Further, the model discusses the major components of developing a marketing strategy that will help the practitioner to be competitive in the marketplace. Presented are strategies for defining and re-evaluating the mission of the profession, for using future trends to identify new markets and roles for the profession, and for developing services that make the profession more competitive by better meeting the needs of the consumer.

  12. Labour market participants’ competitiveness assessment based on latent variables theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Sabetova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article suggests innovative model for assessment of labour market subjects’ competitiveness, or successfulness. The authors state that general complex indicator for individual competitiveness within the labour market cannot be identified. Instead, precise enough assessment of such competitiveness can be based on some variables, though different for in-house and external labour market. The model of latent variables’ assessment based on Rasch’s method was selected as the base for the suggested method. The assessment model gives unbiased generalized values of subjects’ competitiveness on the linear non-dimensional scale based on the partial estimates of the selected criteria. The free choice of these criteria allows the model’s appliance for various labour market segments. The article demonstrates the mathematical grounding for the model; methodic of the assessment criteria selection; the way of assessment performance using MS Excel. It also analyses the features of the obtained estimates and shows their comparison with the estimates obtained by traditional methods. The model suggested by the authors can introduce any quantitative parameter of competitiveness as a variable after analysis of the factors affecting it. The quantitative estimates of these factors become the model’s criteria, but the assessment precision does not alter.

  13. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets : a literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, F.; Genoese, M.; Genoese, M.; Most, D.

    2007-01-01

    The electricity sector in Europe and North America is undergoing considerable changes as a result of deregulation, issues related to climate change, and the integration of renewable resources within the electricity grid. This article reviewed agent-based simulation methods of analyzing electricity markets. The paper provided an analysis of research currently being conducted on electricity market designs and examined methods of modelling agent decisions. Methods of coupling long term and short term decisions were also reviewed. Issues related to single and multiple market analysis methods were discussed, as well as different approaches to integrating agent-based models with models of other commodities. The integration of transmission constraints within agent-based models was also discussed, and methods of measuring market efficiency were evaluated. Other topics examined in the paper included approaches to integrating investment decisions, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) trading, and renewable support schemes. It was concluded that agent-based models serve as a test bed for the electricity sector, and will help to provide insights for future policy decisions. 74 refs., 6 figs

  14. Overconfident investors in the LLS agent-based artificial financial market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lovric, M.; Kaymak, U.; Spronk, J.

    2009-01-01

    Agent-based artificial financial markets are bottom-up models of financial markets which explore the mapping from the micro level of individual investor behavior into the macro level of aggregate market phenomena. It has been recently recognized in the literature that such (agentbased) models are

  15. A Decision Model for Multi-market Advertising Budget Allocation Based on Vidale-Wolfe Model%基于Vidale-Wolfe模型的多市场广告预算分配决策模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张鹏; 王兴元

    2013-01-01

    Advertising decision problem has been a hotspot concerned by marketing managers and scholars for a long time.More and more enterprises are facing multi-market with the development of society and economy and it becomes a more important problem for enterprises that how to allocate advertising budget to get the best advertising effect in condition of multi-market and fixed total advertising budget.Vidale-Wolfe model is selected as the advertising response model,based on which the decision model for multi-market advertising budget allocation is proposed.As some marketing strategy requires special sales rate demands in some markets.The proposed model consists of two parts:the latter cares about how to keep certain sales rate,while the former does not.The optimization model is constructed.The method to get arguments value and how to solve the model are discussed.An example is given at last.%广告决策问题很长时间以来都是营销经理和学者们关注的热点.随着社会经济发展,越来越多的企业面对多个市场.如何在多个市场、广告总预算固定的状况下,合理分配各个市场广告预算以收到最优广告效果,是一个企业关心的较为重要的问题.经过比较,选择Vidale-Wolfe模型作为广告反应模型,在此基础上建立了多市场广告预算分配决策模型.考虑到一些营销策略对某些市场有特殊销售速率要求,该模型分为无特殊销售速率维持要求的多市场广告预算分配决策模型和有特殊销售速率维持要求的多市场广告预算分配决策模型两类,后者探讨了销售速率变化与达到指定销售速率两种要求下的广告预算最优分配问题,构建了优化模型,提出了模型参数取值与模型求解方法,最后给出了一个算例.

  16. Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Elina Bakhtieva

    2017-01-01

    The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap...

  17. Model of Market Share Affected by Social Media Reputation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Akira; Kawahata, Yasuko; Goto, Ujo

    Proposal of market theory to put the effect of social media into account is presented in this paper. The standard market share model in economics is employed as a market theory and the effect of social media is considered quantitatively using the mathematical model for hit phenomena. Using this model, we can estimate the effect of social media in market share as a simple market model simulation using our proposed method.

  18. Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Oliveira, Fernando S.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we seek to develop some model-based insights into this two-stage dynamic process linking market interventions with individual company performance through strategic asset trading and structural change. Essentially, this is achieved with an evolutionary, agent-based, computational model that is capable of simulating how a Cournot player, by interacting with his opponents, can rationally adapt his generation portfolio in order to increase value. The functional capabilities of the proposed computational approach facilitate: 1) The study of asset portfolio adaptation as a result of rational choice. This cannot be achieved with a static Cournot model that, by construction, does not take into account endogenously the rational choice of the installed capacities and technologies used by the players. Further, this evolutionary computational model internalizes the ''path dependencies'' as one of the determinants of portfolio adaptation. 2) The analysis of market structure as an endogenous co-evolutionary process, enabling an adaptive view of the impact of short-term regulatory policies on the evolution of the industry's market structure. 3) The analysis of the behavioural implications f the rational adaptation of players to regulatory interventions. This analysis is carried-out by modelling how players trade their assets in order to improve the value of their portfolio. Our model therefore incorporates two main components: a plant trading game and an electricity market game. The plant trading game simulates the interaction between electricity companies that trade generation plants. The electricity market game simulates the performance of portfolios of plant in an electricity market assuming Cournot players. From this two-stage modelling platform, we analyze two sorts of anti-trust interventions: (a) the ''structural changes'' of enforced divestiture and (b) the ''behavioural remedies'' (sic Competition commission) of capacity availability requirements. We have

  19. A valuation-Based Test of Market Timing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koeter-Kant, J.; Elliott, W.B.; Warr, R.S.

    2007-01-01

    We implement an earnings-based fundamental valuation model to test the impact of market timing on the firm's method of funding the financing deficit. We argue that our valuation metric provides a superior measure of equity misvaluation because it avoids multiple interpretation problems faced by the

  20. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

  1. Desiccant-Based Preconditioning Market Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, J.

    2001-01-11

    A number of important conclusions can be drawn as a result of this broad, first-phase market evaluation. The more important conclusions include the following: (1) A very significant market opportunity will exist for specialized outdoor air-handling units (SOAHUs) as more construction and renovation projects are designed to incorporate the recommendations made by the ASHRAE 62-1989 standard. Based on this investigation, the total potential market is currently $725,000,000 annually (see Table 6, Sect. 3). Based on the market evaluations completed, it is estimated that approximately $398,000,000 (55%) of this total market could be served by DBC systems if they were made cost-effective through mass production. Approximately $306,000,000 (42%) of the total can be served by a non-regenerated, desiccant-based total recovery approach, based on the information provided by this investigation. Approximately $92,000,000 (13%) can be served by a regenerated desiccant-based cooling approach (see Table 7, Sect. 3). (2) A projection of the market selling price of various desiccant-based SOAHU systems was prepared using prices provided by Trane for central-station, air-handling modules currently manufactured. The wheel-component pricing was added to these components by SEMCO. This resulted in projected pricing for these systems that is significantly less than that currently offered by custom suppliers (see Table 4, Sect. 2). Estimated payback periods for all SOAHU approaches were quite short when compared with conventional over-cooling and reheat systems. Actual paybacks may vary significantly depending on site-specific considerations. (3) In comparing cost vs benefit of each SOAHU approach, it is critical that the total system design be evaluated. For example, the cost premium of a DBC system is very significant when compared to a conventional air handling system, yet the reduced chiller, boiler, cooling tower, and other expense often equals or exceeds this premium, resulting in a

  2. Methods of Modelling Marketing Activity on Software Sales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashirov Islam H.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article studies a topical issue of development of methods of modelling marketing activity on software sales for achievement of efficient functioning of an enterprise. On the basis of analysis of the market type for the studied CloudLinux OS product, the article identifies the market structure type: monopolistic competition. To ensure the information basis of the marketing activity in the target market segment, the article offers the survey method. The article provides a questionnaire, which contains specific questions regarding the studied market segment of hosting services, for an online survey with the help of the Survio service. In accordance with the system approach the CloudLinux OS has properties of systems, namely, diversity. Economic differences are non-price indicators that have no numeric expression and are quality descriptions. Analysis of the market and the conducted survey allow obtaining them. Combination of price and non-price indicators provides a complete description of the product properties. To calculate an integral indicator of competitiveness the article offers to apply a model, which is based on the direct algebraic addition of weight measures of individual indicators, regulation of formalised indicators and use of the mechanism of fuzzy sets for identification of non-formalised indicators. The calculated indicator allows not only assessment of the current level of competitiveness, but also identification of influence of changes of various indicators, which allows increase of efficiency of marketing decisions. Also, having identified the target customers of hosting OS and formalised non-price parameters, it is possible to conduct the search for a set of optimal characteristics of the product. In the result an optimal strategy of the product advancement to the market is formed.

  3. Marketing communications model for innovation networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago João Freitas Correia

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Innovation is an increasingly relevant concept for the success of any organization, but it also represents a set of internal and external considerations, barriers and challenges to overcome. Along the concept of innovation, new paradigms emerge such as open innovation and co-creation that are simultaneously innovation modifiers and intensifiers in organizations, promoting organizational openness and stakeholder integration within the value creation process. Innovation networks composed by a multiplicity of agents in co-creative work perform as innovation mechanisms to face the increasingly complexity of products, services and markets. Technology, especially the Internet, is an enabler of all process among organizations supported by co-creative platforms for innovation. The definition of marketing communication strategies that promote motivation and involvement of all stakeholders in synergic creation and external promotion is the central aspect of this research. The implementation of the projects is performed by participative workshops with stakeholders from Madan Parque through IDEAS(REVOLUTION methodology and the operational model LinkUp parameterized for the project. The project is divided into the first part, the theoretical framework, and the second part where a model is developed for the marketing communication strategies that appeal to the Madan Parque case study. Keywords: Marketing Communication; Open Innovation, Technology; Innovation Networks; Incubator; Co-Creation.

  4. Markets for Canadian bitumen-based feedstock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshall, R.; Lauerman, V.; Yamaguchi, N.

    2001-02-01

    This study was undertaken in an effort to determine the market potential for crude bitumen and derivative products from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in 2007. As part of the study, CERI assessed the economic viability of a wide range of bitumen-based feedstock based on their refining values, investigated the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, and examined the competitiveness of bitumen-based feedstocks and conventional crudes. A US$18.00 per barrel price for West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma, was assumed in all calculations, including other crude prices, as well as for Western Canadian and US crude oil production forecasts. Four different scenarios have been considered, but only the 'most plausible' scenario is discussed in the report. Consequently, Hydrocracked/Aromatics Saturated Synthetic Crude Oil, which is currently only a hypothetical product, is excluded from consideration. The availability of historical price differentials for the various competing crudes was another assumption used in developing the scenario. Proxy prices for the bitumen-based feedstock were based on their respective supply costs. The study concludes that the principal dilemma facing bitumen producers in Western Canada is to determine the amount of upgrading necessary to ensure an economic market for their product in the future. In general, the greater the degree of upgrading, the higher is the demand for bitumen-based feedstock. However, it must be kept in mind that the upgrading decisions of other bitumen producers, along with many other factors, will have a decisive impact on the economics of any individual project. The combination of coking capacity and asphalt demand limits the market for heavy and extra-heavy crudes. As a result, the researchers concluded that major expansion of heavy crude conversion capacity may have to wait until the end of the current decade. The economic market for bitumen-based blends in 2007 is estimated at

  5. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    OpenAIRE

    Gutić Dragutin; Rudelj Siniša

    2009-01-01

    Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introdu...

  6. Systemic Modelling for Relating Labour Market to Vocational Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papakitsos, Evangelos C.

    2016-01-01

    The present study introduces a systemic model that demonstrates a description of the relationship between the labour-market and vocational education from the perspective of systemic theory. Based on the application of the relevant methodology, the two open social systems are identified and analyzed. Their key-features are presented and the points…

  7. Model instruments of effective segmentation of the fast food market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mityaeva Tetyana L.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article presents results of optimisation step-type calculations of economic effectiveness of promotion of fast food with consideration of key parameters of assessment of efficiency of the marketing strategy of segmentation. The article justifies development of a mathematical model on the bases of 3D-presentations and three-dimensional system of management variables. The modern applied mathematical packages allow formation not only of one-dimensional and two-dimensional arrays and analyse links of variables, but also of three-dimensional, besides, the more links and parameters are taken into account, the more adequate and adaptive are results of modelling and, as a result, more informative and strategically valuable. The article shows modelling possibilities that allow taking into account strategies and reactions on formation of the marketing strategy under conditions of entering the fast food market segments.

  8. A large-scale linear complementarity model of the North American natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabriel, Steven A.; Jifang Zhuang; Kiet, Supat

    2005-01-01

    The North American natural gas market has seen significant changes recently due to deregulation and restructuring. For example, third party marketers can contract for transportation and purchase of gas to sell to end-users. While the intent was a more competitive market, the potential for market power exists. We analyze this market using a linear complementarity equilibrium model including producers, storage and peak gas operators, third party marketers and four end-use sectors. The marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players determining supply to meet end-use consumption, all other players are in perfect competition. Results based on National Petroleum Council scenarios are presented. (Author)

  9. Space Situational Awareness using Market Based Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, C.; Pier, E.; Gregory, S.; Bush, M.

    2012-09-01

    Space surveillance for the DoD is not limited to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Other DoD-owned assets have some existing capabilities for tasking but have no systematic way to work collaboratively with the SSN. These are run by diverse organizations including the Services, other defense and intelligence agencies and national laboratories. Beyond these organizations, academic and commercial entities have systems that possess SSA capability. Most all of these assets have some level of connectivity, security, and potential autonomy. Exploiting them in a mutually beneficial structure could provide a more comprehensive, efficient and cost effective solution for SSA. The collection of all potential assets, providers and consumers of SSA data comprises a market which is functionally illiquid. The development of a dynamic marketplace for SSA data could enable would-be providers the opportunity to sell data to SSA consumers for monetary or incentive based compensation. A well-conceived market architecture could drive down SSA data costs through increased supply and improve efficiency through increased competition. Oceanit will investigate market and market agent architectures, protocols, standards, and incentives toward producing high-volume/low-cost SSA.

  10. Green maritime transportation: Market based measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to introduce the concept of Market Based Measures (MBMs) to reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from ships, and review several distinct MBM proposals that have been under consideration by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The chapter discusses the me...... the mechanisms used by MBMs, and explores how the concept of the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) can be linked to MBMs. It also attempts to discuss the pros and cons of the submitted proposals....

  11. Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Wierenga, Berend

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of whether they could be solved with a known OR technique. The field of marketing models developed its own identity and became an important academic field (Wierenga 2008b). Somewhat later the term "marke...

  12. Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo

    2015-01-01

    The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

  13. Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Energy Economics

    2015-05-15

    The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

  14. On modelling the market for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiesen, Lars

    2001-12-01

    Several features may separately or in combination influence conduct and performance of an industry, e.g. the numbers of sellers or buyers, the degree of economies of scale in production and distribution, the temporal and spatial dimensions, etc. Our main focus is on how to model market power. In particular, we demonstrate the rather different solutions obtained from the price-taking behavior versus the oligopolistic Coumot behavior. We also consider two approaches to model the transportation of natural gas. Finally, there is a brief review of previous modeling efforts of the European natural gas industry. (author)

  15. Segments of marketers based on a perceived importance of marketing knowledge and skills

    OpenAIRE

    Vesna Žabkar; Maja Hosta

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to define and empirically verify a range of knowledge and skills which are necessary in order to segment marketers, based on their perceptions of the importance of such marketing knowledge and skills. To empirically verify the importance of marketing knowledge and skills, a 28-item measurement instrument was developed. Responses from 235 marketing vice-presidents, marketing directors, sales directors or company presidents/owners in Slovenia were obtained (an 11....

  16. Markets for Canadian bitumen-based feedstock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2001-01-01

    The best types of refineries for processing western Canadian bitumen-based feedstock (BBF) were identified and a potential market for these feedstock for year 2007 was calculated. In addition, this power point presentation provided an estimation of potential regional and total demand for BBF. BBF included Athabasca bitumen blend, de-asphalted blend, coked sour crude oil (SCO), coked sweet SCO, hydrocracked SCO and hydrocracked/aromatic saturated SCO (HAS). Refinery prototypes included light and mixed prototypes for primary cracking units, light and heavy prototypes for primary coking units, as well as no coking, coking severe and residuum prototypes for primary hydrocracking units. The presentation included graphs depicting the natural market for Western Canadian crudes as well as U.S. crude oil production forecasts by PADD districts. It was forecasted that the market for bitumen-based feedstock in 2007 will be tight and that the potential demand for bitumen-based blends would be similar to expected production. It was also forecasted that the potential demand for SCO is not as promising relative to the expected production, unless price discounting or HAS will be available. 11 figs

  17. IS CAPM AN EFFICIENT MODEL? ADVANCED VERSUS EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian IHNATOV

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available CAPM is one of the financial models most widely used by the investors all over the world for analyzing the correlation between risk and return, being considered a milestone in financial literature. However, in recently years it has been criticized for the unrealistic assumptions it is based on and for the fact that the expected returns it forecasts are wrong. The aim of this paper is to test statistically CAPM for a set of shares listed on New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Warsaw Stock Exchange and Bucharest Stock Exchange (developed markets vs. emerging markets and to compare the expected returns resulted from CAPM with the actually returns. Thereby, we intend to verify whether the model is verified for Central and Eastern Europe capital market, mostly dominated by Poland, and whether the Polish and Romanian stock market index may faithfully be represented as market portfolios. Moreover, we intend to make a comparison between the results for Poland and Romania. After carrying out the analysis, the results confirm that the CAPM is statistically verified for all three capital markets, but it fails to correctly forecast the expected returns. This means that the investors can take wrong investments, bringing large loses to them.

  18. Model-based investigation of the electricity market. Unit commitment and power plant investments; Modellgestuetzte Untersuchung des Elektrizitaetsmarktes. Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung und -investitionen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ninghong

    2013-08-08

    The German Federal Government published its energy concept in September 2010 with a description of the road into the era of renewable energies. Therefore, the future renewable energy installed in Germany is expected to consist mostly of wind and solar, which are subject to intermittency of supply and significant fluctuations. The growing portion of energy generation by fluctuating sources is turning to a big challenge for the power plant unit commitment and the investment decisions as well. In this thesis, a fundamental electricity market model with combined modeling of these two aspects is developed. This model is subsequently applied to the German electricity market to investigate what kind of power plant investments are indispensable, considering the steadily increasing portion of energy generation from fluctuating sources, to ensure a reliable energy supply in a cost-effective way in the future. In addition, current energy policy in Germany regarding the use of renewable energy and nuclear energy is analyzed.

  19. Models and Practice of Retail Location on the Romanian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard Cazabat,

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes a review of the main types of location, respectively of probability models, gravity models, utility models, location- allocation, but also of new spatial analysis instruments. In this context, we emphasize the fact that the new location models, based on a geographic information system and the Big Data analysis instruments, open new opportunities for the practical location decision based on a larger set of criteria and by taking the market dynamics into account. The paper has the following objectives: to study the theoretical basis of location models, i.e. of the criteria (the variables used and to compare them with the criteria used currently in decision-making practice. The study is based on qualitative research investigating the opinions of decision -makers in the area of distribution regarding the location strategy of new stores. The research findings confirm the existence of differences between the criteria retained by location models and the practice of distribution companies on the Romanian market. This type of approach – models and practices of location for distribution companies – is a novelty for the Romanian market. The study can be useful both for research (perfecting the location models vis-a-vis present-day evolutions of the business environment, as well as for the decision makers in distribution (the valorization of research findings in decisionmaking practice.

  20. Modeling of a green certificate market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchenko, O.V.

    2008-01-01

    The paper considers one of the economic mechanisms, stimulating the introduction of renewable energy sources (RES) - a green certificate market. A mathematical model was developed to describe a supply and demand balance in the electricity and green certificate markets simultaneously. The sellers of certificates are RES owners, who obtain certificates for each unit of electricity produced, and the buyers are consumers, who are obliged by law to buy a certain share of this electricity. Equilibrium structures of the power system including RES with stochastic operation conditions are calculated. The prices of electricity and certificates, as well as the total economic effect of the system are determined taking into account external costs (environmental damages). The paper shows that a mechanism of green certificates is not an ideal means for minimizing the impact of energy on the environment: the economic effect turns out to be smaller than the maximum possible one. However, this deviation is relatively small, therefore the green certificate market allows the external effects to be partially taken into account. Such a market creates incentives for investors, electricity producers and consumers to make power sources mix, modes of electricity production and consumption closer to the optimum ones in terms of the economy as a whole. (author)

  1. Market-based transmission expansion planning by improved differential evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgilakis, Pavlos S.

    2010-01-01

    The restructuring and deregulation has exposed the transmission planner to new objectives and uncertainties. As a result, new criteria and approaches are needed for transmission expansion planning (TEP) in deregulated electricity markets. This paper proposes a new market-based approach for TEP. An improved differential evolution (IDE) model is proposed for the solution of this new market-based TEP problem. The modifications of IDE in comparison to the simple differential evolution method are: (1) the scaling factor F is varied randomly within some range, (2) an auxiliary set is employed to enhance the diversity of the population, (3) the newly generated trial vector is compared with the nearest parent, and (4) the simple feasibility rule is used to treat the constraints. Results from the application of the proposed method on the IEEE 30-bus test system demonstrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed IDE for the solution of TEP problem. (author)

  2. Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of

  3. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  4. Local labor markets and taste-based discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clémence Berson

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article appeals to heterogeneity in workers’ non-wage preferences to model taste-based discrimination. Firms hire both types of workers and pay lower wages to minority workers, whatever their taste for discrimination. A single prejudiced firm in the market produces a substantial wage gap in all firms. Consequently, discrimination allows unprejudiced firms to make non-zero profits, so that they have little incentive to drive out prejudiced firms. As the market does not eliminate discrimination, state intervention is required. Indirect policies do not affect the absolute wage gap between the two groups, but may be more likely to be used than direct policies.

  5. Multi-dimensional information diffusion and balancing market supply: an agent-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, S.A.; Kramer, M.R.; Hofstede, G.J.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    This agent-based information management model is designed to explore how multi-dimensional information, spreading through a population of agents (for example farmers) affects market supply. Farmers make quality decisions that must be aligned with available markets. Markets distinguish themselves by

  6. Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Xiaolian

    2013-01-01

    Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

  7. A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.

  8. Solar energy market penetration models - Science or number mysticism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, E. H., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The forecast market potential of a solar technology is an important factor determining its R&D funding. Since solar energy market penetration models are the method used to forecast market potential, they have a pivotal role in a solar technology's development. This paper critiques the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models. It is argued that the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.

  9. FORMATIVE AND REFLECTIVE MODELS IN MARKETING RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Ioana CIOBANU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Compliance with the construct validity criteria is necessary for the correct assessment of the research in terms of quality and for further development of the marketing models. The identification of formative and reflective constructs as well as the correct testing of their validity and reliability are important methodological steps for marketing research as described in this article. The first part defines the reflective and the formative constructs and highlighst their particularities by analysing the theoretical criteria that differentiate them. In the second part of the study aspects of validity and trust for the formative and reflective constructs are presented as well as some empirical considerations from research literature regarding their measurement.

  10. Documentation of the Uranium Market Model (UMM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The Uranium Market Model is used to make projections of activity in the US uranium mining and milling industry. The primary data sources were EIA, the Nuclear Assurance Corporation, and, to a lesser extent, Nuexco and Nuclear Resources International. The Uranium Market Model is a microeconomic simulation model in which uranium supplied by the mining and milling industry is provided to meet the demand for uranium by electric utilities with nuclear power plants. Uranium is measured on a U 3 O 8 (uranium oxide) equivalent basis. The model considers every major production center and utility on a worldwide basis (with Centrally Planned Economies considered in a limited way), and makes annual projections for each major uranium production and consumption region in the world. Typically, nine regions are used: the United States, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Other Africa, Europe, Latin America, the Far East, and Other. Production centers and utilities are identified as being in one of these regions. In general, the model can accommodate any user-provided set of regional definitions and data

  11. Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ooteghem, Jan; Tesch, Tom; Verbrugge, Sofie; Ackaert, Ann; Colle, Didier; Pickavet, Mario; Demeester, Piet

    In order to address the increasing costs of providing care to the growing group of elderly, efficiency gains through eCare solutions seem an obvious solution. Unfortunately not many techno-economic business models to evaluate the return of these investments are available. The construction of a business case for care for the elderly as they move through different levels of dependency and the effect of introducing an eCare service, is the intended application of the model. The simulation model presented in this paper allows for modeling evolution of market shares of competing care providers. Four tiers are defined, based on the dependency level of the elderly, for which the market shares are determined. The model takes into account available capacity of the different care providers, in- and outflow distribution between tiers and churn between providers within tiers.

  12. A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Nazos, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Stochastic MILP model for the optimal energy planning of a power system. •Power market dynamics (offers/bids) are incorporated in the proposed model. •Monte Carlo method for capturing the uncertainty of some key parameters. •Analytical supply cost composition per power producer and activity. •Clean dark and spark spreads are calculated for each power unit. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.

  13. Modeling of market segmentation for new IT product development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasiopoulos, Dimitrios K.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Mavrogianni, Amanda

    2015-02-01

    Businesses from all Information Technology sectors use market segmentation[1] in their product development[2] and strategic planning[3]. Many studies have concluded that market segmentation is considered as the norm of modern marketing. With the rapid development of technology, customer needs are becoming increasingly diverse. These needs can no longer be satisfied by a mass marketing approach and follow one rule. IT Businesses can face with this diversity by pooling customers[4] with similar requirements and buying behavior and strength into segments. The result of the best choices about which segments are the most appropriate to serve can then be made, thus making the best of finite resources. Despite the attention which segmentation gathers and the resources that are invested in it, growing evidence suggests that businesses have problems operationalizing segmentation[5]. These problems take various forms. There may have been a rule that the segmentation process necessarily results in homogeneous groups of customers for whom appropriate marketing programs and procedures for dealing with them can be developed. Then the segmentation process, that a company follows, can fail. This increases concerns about what causes segmentation failure and how it might be overcome. To prevent the failure, we created a dynamic simulation model of market segmentation[6] based on the basic factors leading to this segmentation.

  14. System Dynamics Modeling of the Massachusetts SREC Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rickerson

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available As states across the country struggle to increase local development of renewable energy, policymakers are turning to innovative program designs to meet their renewable electricity targets. Massachusetts recently adopted a unique, auction-based price support mechanism for the solar portion of its renewable portfolio standard. During the program development process, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER used system dynamics to simulate potential solar renewable energy certificate market conditions under the proposed regulations. The modeling exercise resulted in several program design changes that will lead to a more stable certificate market. System dynamics can be a useful tool for developing and improving sustainability programs.

  15. Identity based marketing: a new balanced marketing paradigm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alsem, K.J.; Kostelijk, Erik Jan

    2008-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a fundamentally new extension of the marketing paradigm. This is theoretically and practically necessary since in the authors' view there is an insufficient balance between customer and brand thinking. Design/methodology/approach – While the

  16. Identity-based marketing : A new balanced marketing paradigm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alsem, K.J.; Kostelijk, E.J.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to propose a fundamentally new extension of the marketing paradigm. This is theoretically and practically necessary since in the authors' view there is an insufficient balance between customer and brand thinking. Design/methodology/approach - While the

  17. The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, G.; Chen, Y.; Huang, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    Researchers have borrowed many theories from statistical physics, like ensemble, Ising model, etc., to study complex adaptive systems through agent-based modeling. However, one fundamental difference between entities (such as spins) in physics and micro-units in complex adaptive systems is that the latter are usually with high intelligence, such as investors in financial markets. Although highly intelligent virtual agents are essential for agent-based modeling to play a full role in the study of complex adaptive systems, how to create such agents is still an open question. Hence, we propose three principles for designing high artificial intelligence in financial markets and then build a specific class of agents called iAgents based on these three principles. Finally, we evaluate the intelligence of iAgents through virtual index trading in two different stock markets. For comparison, we also include three other types of agents in this contest, namely, random traders, agents from the wealth game (modified on the famous minority game), and agents from an upgraded wealth game. As a result, iAgents perform the best, which gives a well support for the three principles. This work offers a general framework for the further development of agent-based modeling for various kinds of complex adaptive systems.

  18. 基于Copula-ASV-EVT-CoVaR模型的中小板与创业板风险溢出度量研究%Study on the risk spillover effect between the small and medium-sized board market and the second board market in China based on Copula-ASV-EVT-CoVaR model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周孝华; 陈九生

    2016-01-01

    本文以条件在险价值(CoVaR)法为基础,结合Copula-ASV-EVT模型分析了我国中小板与创业板市场之间的风险溢出效应.结果表明,中小板与创业板市场之间存在双向风险溢出效应,且中小板市场对创业板市场的风险溢出效应强于创业板市场对中小板市场的风险溢出效应.此外,文章还分析了波动冲击对中小板与创业板的影响.最后,本文为风险监管以及投资者在中小板与创业板之间进行资产配置提供了建议.%This paper analyzes the risk spillover effect between the small and medium-sized board market and the second board market in China based on CoVaR method combined with Copula-ASV-EVT model.The results show that there are bidirectional risk spillover effect between the small and medium-sized board market and the growth enterprise market in China,the degree of risk spillover effect from the small and medium-sized board market to the growth enterprise market is stronger than that of from the second board market to the small and medium-sized board market.In addition,this paper also analyzes the influence of volatility impulse on the small and medium-sized board market and the second board market in China.Finally,the paper provides some suggestions for investors and supervisory authorities.

  19. A model for marketing planning for new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1993-01-01

    awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development...... and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan....

  20. Foundations of Constructing a Marketing Data Base; Profitable Applications of the Computer to Marketing Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podell, Harold J.

    An introduction into the foundations of constructing a marketing data base is presented for the systems and marketing executives who are familiar with basic computer technology methods. The techniques and concepts presented are now being implemented by major organizations in the development of Management Information Systems (MIS). A marketing data…

  1. Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Successful innovation of prescription drugs requires a substantial amount of marketing support. There is, however, much concern about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand of pharmaceutical products (Manchanda et al., Market Lett 16(3/4):293-308, 2005). For example, excessive marketing

  2. How Can Marketing Academics Serve Marketing Practice? The New Marketing DNA as a Model for Marketing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, Paul; Hulbert, Bev

    2011-01-01

    This article seeks to address how marketing academics can best serve marketing practice through marketing education. It is contended that, where technology is driving marketing in practice, it is afforded significantly less attention in both theory and education. Thus, the marketing graduates being produced from universities are often lacking in…

  3. Agent-based land markets: Heterogeneous agents, land proces and urban land use change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Parker, Dawn C.; van der Veen, A.; Amblard, F.

    2007-01-01

    We construct a spatially explicit agent-based model of a bilateral land market. Heterogeneous agents form their bid and ask prices for land based on the utility that they obtain from a certain location (houte/land) and base on the state of the market (an excess of demand or supply). We underline the

  4. SELECTED MODELS OF RAIL MARKETS IN THE CONTEXT OF LIBERALIZATION OF THE RAIL MARKET IN EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krystian Pietrzak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper author has made an attempt at presenting problems of the operation of European railway transport market against the background of changes taking place in the European Union transport market. These changes are the result of processes aimed at liberalizing the market. In addition, this article defines the conditions of reforms in the Eu-ropean rail market by highlighting various models of its functioning.

  5. The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market-Model-based analysis until 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochner, Stefan; Bothe, David

    2009-01-01

    Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries

  6. Distributed Energy Generation Systems Based on Renewable Energy and Natural Gas Blending: New Business Models for Economic Incentives, Electricity Market Design and Regulatory Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyangon, Joseph

    to the long-term effect estimated at 0.9696% (15-year period). Evidence from the main policy, environmental, and economic indicators for solar and wind-power development such as feed-in tariffs, state renewable portfolio standards, public benefits fund, net metering, interconnection standards, environmental quality, electricity import ratio, per-capita energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, average electricity price, per-capita real gross domestic product, and energy intensity are discussed and evaluated in detail in order to elucidate their effectiveness in supporting the utility industry transformation. The discussion is followed by a consideration of a plausible distributed utility framework that is tailored for major DERs development that has emerged in New York called Reforming the Energy Vision. This framework provides a conceptual base with which to imagine the utility of the future as well as a practical solution to study the potential of DERs in other states. The dissertation finds this grid and market modernization initiative has considerable influence and importance beyond New York in the development of a new market economy in which customer choice and distributed utilities are prominent.

  7. Marketing Communications for Continuing Education: A Planning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicere, Albert A.

    1982-01-01

    This article presents a model for the formulation of marketing communications strategies geared both to efficiency in direct marketing efforts and effectiveness in the creation of individual program enrollments and institutional identity. (CT)

  8. Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria | Akarah ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria. ... that are influenced by the sports market mix and sports consumers that are influenced by psychological factors and notes that; ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  9. A study of the effects of company size on systematic risk based on the capital asset pricing model among accepted companies in Tehran Stock Market ,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Rostami

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic risk (beta is one of the most effective factors in predicting the appropriate required rate of return of portfolios. Understanding systematic risk of usual portfolio of various companies helps investors consider financial investment, more confidentially. The aim of this study is to determine if there is any significant relationship between Company Size (Market value of stocks, Book value of stocks, level of company sale, trade volume of stocks, Price dividend ratio as independent variables and Systematic risk (Beta as dependent variables. The study chooses 112 companies accepted in Tehran Stock Market based on screening (systematic deletion in a six-year- period from 2005 to 2010. The required data were gathered from basic financial statement, committee reports, and other available documents in Tehran Stock Market. Regression and Pearson correlation were used to analyze the data. The results of the study revealed that there is a significant relationship between the variables. Some suggestions regarding the topic of the research are given too.

  10. Analyzing power pools and understanding the spot market based approach to electricity trading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goulding, D. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    Highlights of the evolution of the electricity industry from franchised monopoly to commoditized markets were presented. Trends in commoditized markets include increased competition, a decline in profit margins and increases in price volatility. Examples of highly regulated industries that have commoditized include long distance telephone, airline and the trucking industries. Models of possible market structures for electricity were reviewed, among them: (1) mandatory one-sided spot market, (2) mandatory spot market, less central control, (3) optional two-sided spot market, and (4) physical bilateral based market. Management of the marketplace regardless of the model used, must assure system security and system reliability and meet real-time demand on the system. Possible roles for the Independent System Operator were discussed. The principal role was predicted to be the operation of an electronic exchange for forward contracts, operation of the spot market, and acting as a clearinghouse for buyers and sellers of forward contracts. 1 tab., 4 figs.

  11. Mass market development strategies of software industries: Case study based research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varun Gupta

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The success in competitive mass market software development depends on the quality of software development and market segments targeted. Market segments are categorized by uncertainties contributed by “Newness” and “turbulences”, making the software success stochastic in nature. Selecting good market segments, delivering high quality software versions in the lowest time than competitors, result in increasing demand in markets and ultimately revenues. Enhanced customer base is beneficial for current product as well as for future products of industry in the form of increased reputation and increased involvement of customers in future development. The case study was conducted with 13 representatives drawing experiences of 14 mass market projects. Results indicate that software solutions are delivered to few investors or in highly competitive markets, as per the survey's findings of the marketing departments. The software organizations are reluctant to deliver relatively complex solutions in new markets unless and until strongly convinced with the probable success. The method for selection of market segments belonging to new and existing markets for undertaking the software delivery is also proposed in this paper. The model will help software industry decide the market segments and high abstract level features that could increase probability of software success. Poor selection of markets or targeting markets of “improper” size affects the market share of the industry to a great extend.

  12. An agent-based simulation of power generation company behavior in electricity markets under different market-clearing mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aliabadi, Danial Esmaeili; Kaya, Murat; Şahin, Güvenç

    2017-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets are expected to provide affordable electricity for consumers through promoting competition. Yet, the results do not always fulfill the expectations. The regulator's market-clearing mechanism is a strategic choice that may affect the level of competition in the market. We conceive of the market-clearing mechanism as composed of two components: pricing rules and rationing policies. We investigate the strategic behavior of power generation companies under different market-clearing mechanisms using an agent-based simulation model which integrates a game-theoretical understanding of the auction mechanism in the electricity market and generation companies' learning mechanism. Results of our simulation experiments are presented using various case studies representing different market settings. The market in simulations is observed to converge to a Nash equilibrium of the stage game or to a similar state under most parameter combinations. Compared to pay-as-bid pricing, bid prices are closer to marginal costs on average under uniform pricing while GenCos' total profit is also higher. The random rationing policy of the ISO turns out to be more successful in achieving lower bid prices and lower GenCo profits. In minimizing GenCos' total profit, a combination of pay-as-bid pricing rule and random rationing policy is observed to be the most promising. - Highlights: • An agent-based simulation of generation company behavior in electricity markets is developed. • Learning dynamics of companies is modeled with an extended Q-learning algorithm. • Different market clearing mechanisms of the regulator are compared. • Convergence to Nash equilibria is analyzed under different cases. • The level of competition in the market is studied.

  13. Competition and equilibria in electricity markets based on two-settlement system: A conjectural variation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, David

    This dissertation studies electricity markets based on two-settlement systems and applies the concept of conjectural variation (CV) as a tool for representing different levels of competitiveness in the market. Some recent theoretical works are addressed to support the use of CV as a solution concept. A notion of consistency is introduced to make the level of competitiveness of the market endogenous, and allows finding consistent CV equilibria and the corresponding conditions for existence of equilibria. First, a case is studied in which firms hold exogenous levels of forward commitments. Then, backward induction and sub-game perfection are used to solve sequentially for the spot and forward market equilibrium. This allows analyzing how firms take positions in the forward market, based on considering their later impact on the spot market. It is concluded that positions taken in the forward market depend largely on firms expectations about the competitiveness of both the spot and the forward market. Forward markets are welfare enhancing even if they are not as competitive as the associated spot market as long as they are not too oligopolistie. The above formulation is used to model a dynamic scenario to analyze market stability, linking this research to Dr. Alvarado's earlier research on market stability. This brings about interesting trade offs between market power and market stability.

  14. Multi-Level Marketing as a business model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Gregor

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi Level Marketing is a very popular business model in the Western countries. It is a kind of hybrid of the method of distribution of goods and the method of building a sales network. It is one of the safest (carries a very low risk ways of conducting a business activity. The knowledge about functioning of this business model, both among theoreticians (scanty literature on the subject and practitioners, is still insufficient in Poland. Thus, the presented paper has been prepared as — in the Authors' opinion — it, at least infinitesimally, bridges the gap in the recognition of Multi Level Marketing issues. The aim of the study was, first of all, to describe Multi Level Marketing, to indicate practical benefits of this business model as well as to present basic systems of calculating a commission, which are used in marketing plans of companies. The discussion was based on the study of literature and the knowledge gained in the course of free-form interviews with the leaders of the sector.

  15. Mass transit: devising a research-based marketing plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanier, D.J.; Wotruba, T.R.

    1977-08-01

    This study presents a marketing planning procedural model that can be operationally used by marketing managers. The model enables the user to assess his company's performance on the various attributes of the marketing mix and to design a marketing program that caters to the needs of his marketplace. The model is applied here specifically to mass transit and is tested empirically. Within this context, it permits transit marketing to aim at increasing the probabilities of (i) greater usage on the part of existing riders and (ii) attracting prospects and converting them into actual customers.

  16. Mass transit: devising a research-based marketing plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanier, D J; Wotruba, T R

    1977-08-01

    This study presents a marketing planning procedural model that can be operationally used by marketing managers. The model enables the user to assess his company's performance on the various attributes of the marketing mix and to design a marketing program that caters to the needs of his marketplace. The model is applied here specifically to mass transit and is tested empirically. Within this context, it permits transit marketing to aim at increasing the probabilities of (i) greater usage on the part of existing riders and (ii) attracting prospects and converting them into actual customers.

  17. A CcP model of the stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimshon Bichler

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Most explanations of stock market booms and busts are based on contrasting the underlying ‘fundamental’ logic of the economy with the exogenous, non-economic factors that presumably distort it. Our paper offers a radically different model, examining the stock market not from the mechanical viewpoint of a distorted economy, but from the dialectical perspective of capitalized power. The model demonstrates that (1 the valuation of equities represents capitalized power; (2 capitalized power is dialectically intertwined with systemic fear; and (3 systemic fear and capitalized power are mediated through strategic sabotage. This triangular model, we posit, can offer a basis for examining the asymptotes, or limits, of capitalized power and the ways in which these asymptotes relate to the historical and ongoing transformation of the capitalist mode of power.

  18. Model instruments of effective segmentation of the fast food market

    OpenAIRE

    Mityaeva Tetyana L.

    2013-01-01

    The article presents results of optimisation step-type calculations of economic effectiveness of promotion of fast food with consideration of key parameters of assessment of efficiency of the marketing strategy of segmentation. The article justifies development of a mathematical model on the bases of 3D-presentations and three-dimensional system of management variables. The modern applied mathematical packages allow formation not only of one-dimensional and two-dimensional arrays and analyse ...

  19. Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

    2018-05-01

    In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

  20. A study of the logical model of capital market complexity theories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Analyzes the shortcomings of the classic capital market theories based on EMH and discloses the complexity essence of the capital market. Considering the capital market a complicated, interactive and adaptable dynamic system, with complexity science as the method for researching the operation law of the capital market, this paper constructs a nonlinear logical model to analyze the applied realm, focal point and interrelationship of such theories as dissipative structure theory, chaos theory, fractal theory, synergetics theory, catastrophe theory and scale theory, and summarizes and discusses the achievements and problems of each theory.Based on the research, the paper foretells the developing direction of complexity science in a capital market.

  1. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  2. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bistra Vassileva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

  3. Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

    2018-02-01

    Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

  4. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  5. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Bistra Vassileva; Miroslav Nikolov

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed concep...

  6. Outflow dynamics in modeling oligopoly markets: the case of the mobile telecommunications market in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał; Włoszczowska, Maja

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumer choice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level p \\in (0.3,0.4) . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment.

  7. System of marketing deciding support based on game theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Dukić

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative methods and models can be applied in numerous spheres of marketing deciding. The choice of optimal strategy in product advertising is one of the problems that the marketing-management often meets. The use of models developed within the framework of game theory makes significantly easier to find out the solutions of conflict situations that appear herewith. The system of deciding support presented in this work is based on the supposition that two opposed sides take part in the game. With the aim of deciding process promotion, the starting model incorporates computer simulation of percentile changes in the market share that represent elements of payment matrix. The supposition is that the random variables that represent them follow the normal division. It is necessary to carry out the evaluation of their parameters because of relevant data. Information techniques, computer and the adequate program applications take the special position in solving and analysis of the suggested model. This kind of their application represents the basic characteristic of the deciding support system.

  8. Relationship Marketing results: proposition of a cognitive mapping model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iná Futino Barreto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective - This research sought to develop a cognitive model that expresses how marketing professionals understand the relationship between the constructs that define relationship marketing (RM. It also tried to understand, using the obtained model, how objectives in this field are achieved. Design/methodology/approach – Through cognitive mapping, we traced 35 individual mental maps, highlighting how each respondent understands the interactions between RM elements. Based on the views of these individuals, we established an aggregate mental map. Theoretical foundation – The topic is based on a literature review that explores the RM concept and its main elements. Based on this review, we listed eleven main constructs. Findings – We established an aggregate mental map that represents the RM structural model. Model analysis identified that CLV is understood as the final result of RM. We also observed that the impact of most of the RM elements on CLV is brokered by loyalty. Personalization and quality, on the other hand, proved to be process input elements, and are the ones that most strongly impact others. Finally, we highlight that elements that punish customers are much less effective than elements that benefit them. Contributions - The model was able to insert core elements of RM, but absent from most formal models: CLV and customization. The analysis allowed us to understand the interactions between the RM elements and how the end result of RM (CLV is formed. This understanding improves knowledge on the subject and helps guide, assess and correct actions.

  9. Conceptual model innovation management: market orientation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.Ya. Maljuta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights issues that determine the beginning of the innovation process. Determined that until recently in Ukraine at all levels of innovation management (regional, sectoral, institutional dominated grocery orientation innovation that focus on production innovation and found that the transition to a market economy, the restructuring of production and complexity of social needs led to the strengthening of the consumer. It is proved that innovation itself – not the ultimate goal, but only a means of satisfying consumer needs. It proved that changing production conditions, complications of social needs and the need to improve the competitiveness of innovations require finding new forms of innovation. In this regard, proposed to allocate such basic scheme (model of innovation in small businesses, individual entrepreneurs, venture capital firms, eksplerents, patients, violents and commutants, spin-offs and spin-out company, network (or shell company and a network of small businesses.

  10. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  11. Models for the financial-performance effects of Marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanssens, D.M.; Dekimpe, Marnik; Wierenga, B.; van der Lans, R.

    We consider marketing-mix models that explicitly include financial performance criteria. These financial metrics are not only comparable across the marketing mix, they also relate well to investors’ evaluation of the firm. To that extent, we treat marketing as an investment in customer value

  12. Language Implications for Advertising in International Markets: A Model for Message Content and Message Execution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beard, John; Yaprak, Attila

    A content analysis model for assessing advertising themes and messages generated primarily for United States markets to overcome barriers in the cultural environment of international markets was developed and tested. The model is based on three primary categories for generating, evaluating, and executing advertisements: rational, emotional, and…

  13. Multi-Market Impacts of Market-Based Recycling Initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Linda R

    1999-09-01

    In 1995 the average tipping fee in the state of New York was $70/ton, with some landfills charging as high as $100. 1 In New Jersey, fees reached prices as high as $165/ton. 2 With budget crises occurring at all levels of government, economists, environmental scientists, policy-makers, and others are scrambling to find alternatives to waste disposal. Recycling as a solution has risen to the forefront, most likely because it both saves landfill space and may use fewer resources than virgin material processing. At every level of government, policies are being set that encourage recycling. Unfortunately, some of these programs may be resulting in unintended and undesirable side effects. To understand these effects, a broader view of the many factors involved in materials use, waste generation, and disposal is necessary. Within this paper, the broader view is considered, including a discussion of the externalities that exist in the markets affected by waste and an analysis of the effects on all alternatives to recycling, including composting and reuse. Through use of mathematical optimization, this paper shows that a recycling subsidy, or the more complicated tax/subsidy scheme, does not necessarily provide greater environmental benefits compared with disposal taxes.

  14. Evidence-Based Marketing for Academic Librarians

    OpenAIRE

    Yoo-Seong Song

    2006-01-01

    Objective - In developing marketing strategies for the Business & Economics Library (BEL) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), a survey was designed to answer the following questions: - Should BEL develop marketing strategies differently for East Asian business students? - What services do graduate business students want to receive from BEL? - With whom should BEL partner to increase visibility at the College of Business? Marketing research techniques were used to g...

  15. A modelling breakthrough for market design analysis to test massive intermittent generation integration in markets results of selected OPTIMATE studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaude, Francois; Atayi, A.; Bourmaud, J.-Y.

    2013-01-01

    The OPTIMATE1 platform focuses on electricity system and market designs modelling in order to assess current and innovative designs in Europe. The current paper describes the results of the first validation studies' conducted with the tool. These studies deal with day-ahead market rules, load...... flexibility, cross-border management and intermittent renewable support schemes with a view to better integrating large amounts of renewable energy in Europe. Market and system designs were assessed based on economic efficiency, security of supply2 and environmental impact3 indicators. These results give...

  16. Business models in commercial media markets: Bargaining, advertising, and mixing

    OpenAIRE

    Thöne, Miriam; Rasch, Alexander; Wenzel, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    We consider a product and a media market and show how a change in the business model employed by the media platforms affects consumers, producers (or advertisers), and price negotiations for advertisements. On both markets, two firms differentiated á la Hotelling compete for consumers. On the media market, consumers can mix between the two outlets whereas on the product market, consumers have to decide for one supplier. With pay-tv, as opposed to free-to-air, mixing by consumers disappears, p...

  17. Test of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of an E-Mail Marketing Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Menon, R. G. Vishnu; Sigurdarson, Johannes Pall; Kristjansson, Jon Skafti; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    An e-mail marketing experiment based on the behavioral perspective model was conducted to investigate consumer choice. Conversion e-mails were sent to two groups from the same marketing database of registered consumers interested in children's books. The experiment was based on A-B-A-C-A and A-C-A-B-A withdrawal designs and consisted of sending B…

  18. Ising model of financial markets with many assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckrot, A.; Jurczyk, J.; Morgenstern, I.

    2016-11-01

    Many models of financial markets exist, but most of them simulate single asset markets. We study a multi asset Ising model of a financial market. Each agent has two possible actions (buy/sell) for every asset. The agents dynamically adjust their coupling coefficients according to past market returns and external news. This leads to fat tails and volatility clustering independent of the number of assets. We find that a separation of news into different channels leads to sector structures in the cross correlations, similar to those found in real markets.

  19. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule

  20. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.

  1. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, V.

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  2. Model of high-tech businesses management under the trends of explicit and implicit knowledge markets: classification and business model

    OpenAIRE

    Guzel Isayevna Gumerova; Elmira Shamilevna Shaimieva

    2015-01-01

    Objective to define the notion of ldquohightech businessrdquo to elaborate classification of hightech businesses to elaborate the business model for hightech business management. Methods general scientific methods of theoretical and empirical cognition. Results the research presents a business model of hightech businesses management basing on the trends of explicit and explicit knowledge market with the dominating implicit knowledge market classification of hightech business...

  3. An agent model for the high-end gamers market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaansen, T.; Armbruster, H.D.; Kempf, K.; Li, H.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the driving forces in the markets of their products is a basic necessity for any business. Quantitative models are either aggregated over large market segments or restricted to utility models of an individual's buying decision. While the aggregate models acknowledge that customer

  4. Market-based approach to financial architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Underhill, G.R.D.; Caprio, G.; Beck, T.; Claessens, S.; Schmukler, S.L.

    2013-01-01

    The institutions of financial governance are central to the prospects for financial stability. Without sound regulatory and supervisory institutions, herd behavior and market failure looms large in a liberal financial system. Cross-border and cross-sectoral financial market integration exacerbates

  5. Evolution of Web-based International Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Companies that have been doing international business do not usually make the transition from traditional marketers to full-blown Web marketers in one sharp step. In our study of Danish firms, we found that in terms of the evolution of their Web strategies, these Danish companies went through three...

  6. MARKET EVALUATION MODEL: TOOL FORBUSINESS DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles Loarte, José; Yenque Dedios, Julio; Lavado Soto, Aurelio

    2014-01-01

    In the present work the concepts of potential market and global market are analyzed as the basis for strategic decisions of market with long term perspectives, when the implantation of a business in certain geographic area is evaluated. On this conceptual frame, the methodological tool is proposed to evaluate a commercial decision, for which it is taken as reference the case from the brewing industry in Peru, considering that this industry faces in the region entrepreneurial reorderings withi...

  7. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

  8. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

  9. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Zuwei

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

  10. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuwei Yu

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

  11. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

  12. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

  13. An Aggregation Model for Energy Resources Management and Market Negotiations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Abrishambaf

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Currently the use of distributed energy resources, especially renewable generation, and demand response programs are widely discussed in scientific contexts, since they are a reality in nowadays electricity markets and distribution networks. In order to benefit from these concepts, an efficient energy management system is needed to prevent energy wasting and increase profits. In this paper, an optimization based aggregation model is presented for distributed energy resources and demand response program management. This aggregation model allows different types of customers to participate in electricity market through several tariffs based demand response programs. The optimization algorithm is a mixed-integer linear problem, which focuses on minimizing operational costs of the aggregator. Moreover, the aggregation process has been done via K-Means clustering algorithm, which obtains the aggregated costs and energy of resources for remuneration. By this way, the aggregator is aware of energy available and minimum selling price in order to participate in the market with profit. A realistic low voltage distribution network has been proposed as a case study in order to test and validate the proposed methodology. This distribution network consists of 25 distributed generation units, including photovoltaic, wind and biomass generation, and 20 consumers, including residential, commercial, and industrial buildings.

  14. Dynamic VaR Measurement of Gold Market with SV-T-MN Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenglan Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available VaR (Value at Risk in the gold market was measured and predicted by combining stochastic volatility (SV model with extreme value theory. Firstly, for the fat tail and volatility persistence characteristics in gold market return series, the gold price return volatility was modeled by SV-T-MN (SV-T with Mixture-of-Normal distribution model based on state space. Secondly, future sample volatility prediction was realized by using approximate filtering algorithm. Finally, extreme value theory based on generalized Pareto distribution was applied to measure dynamic risk value (VaR of gold market return. Through the proposed model on the price of gold, empirical analysis was investigated; the results show that presented combined model can measure and predict Value at Risk of the gold market reasonably and effectively and enable investors to further understand the extreme risk of gold market and take coping strategies actively.

  15. Modelling wedding marketing strategies: An fsQCA Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anestis Fotiadis

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study is to develop a model delineating customer perceptions on wedding marketing strategies in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Main objective of this paper is to analyse a category of special events: the wedding market sector in Kaohsiung, Taiwan by examining how they attract consumers regarding their marketing strategies using the method of fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA. Based on a survey to married, in relationship and singles local citizens of Taiwan the relationships between impressions, importance, push factors with decision making was explored. To test the hypotheses of the proposed model a primary research study was conducted employing a mall intercept technique via distribution of a self-administered questionnaire within a cross sectional on-site field research context. A fsQCA modelling approach technique was employed in order to measure, estimate and confirm the different casual paths constructs, as well as to test the significance of the paths between different segments of the wedding industry. Our findings reveal that the presence of importance, push factors and decision making determines the level of consumer perception performance. However, impressions do not show significant impact on consumer perceptions.

  16. A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Linderhof, Vincent; Kuik, Onno; Kemfert, Claudia; Ostling, Robert; Heinzow, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight Northwestern European countries, namely Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Different market structures are compared, depending on the ability of firms to exercise market power, ranging from perfect competition without market power to strategic competition where large firms exercise market power. In addition, a market power reduction policy is studied where the near-monopolies in France and Belgium are demerged into smaller firms. To analyse environmental impacts, a fixed greenhouse gas emission reduction target is introduced under different market structures. The results indicate that the effects of liberalisation depend on the resulting market structure, but that a reduction in market power of large producers may be beneficial for both the consumer (i.e. lower prices) and the environment (i.e. lower greenhouse gas permit price and lower acidifying and smog emissions)

  17. A model for marketing planning of new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1994-01-01

    Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... incorporates a special model to explain consumer awareness of the new product. 3. Consumer awareness is explained by distribution (shelf facings and in-store promotion), advertising and giving away free samples. 4. The trial model incorporates the total market potential, the probability of being in a buying...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

  18. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  19. A complementarity model for the European natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egging, Ruud; Gabriel, Steven A.; Holz, Franziska; Zhuang, Jifang

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call 'traders', pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, liquefiers and regasifiers is modeled via optimization problems whose Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions in combination with market-clearing conditions form the complementarity system. The LNG tankers, marketers and consumption sectors are modeled implicitly via appropriate cost functions, aggregate demand curves, and ex post calculations, respectively. The model is run on several case studies that highlight its capabilities, including a simulation of a disruption of Russian supplies via Ukraine

  20. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang Jifang; Gabriel, Steven A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems

  1. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jifang Zhuang; Gabriel, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems. (author)

  2. Financial Investment Management: Testing the Market Model on the Romanian Capital Market during the Post Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu CIOBANU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an analysis of the decision of investing in the capital market in Romania during 2009-2010, in the context of overcoming the global financial crisis. In the first part of the paper, we have made a brief presentation of the simplified model of market analysis introduced in the specialized literature by William Sharpe, the respective model representing the starting point in our study. The purpose of the present study is to emphasize how the evolutions of the financial securities rates listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange could be explained based on the evolution of BET Romanian capital market index. Although the study over this phenomenon has begun in the middle of the last century, every day new studies appear that are either coming in addition to the already existing ones or are bringing a new approach regarding the financial theory. The novelty of the present study conducted by us resides in the highlighting of the evolutions of the financial securities rates during July 2009 – December 2010 periods. The second part of the paper presents the results of a study conducted on the Romanian capital market, emphasizing the correlations between the most important securities on the Romanian capital market, as parts of BET index and market index. The aim is to check whether during this period the evolution of the financial securities’ return can be explained more or less by the return of the capital market.

  3. An Experimental Model for Market Penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caren, William L.

    1987-01-01

    A plan for college market penetration that has been successful in increasing the applicant pool for one institution is outlined and discussed. It includes development of performance objectives, a schedule, a promotional plan, market survey, and promotional activities including alumni, media, and other community resources. (MSE)

  4. Applied Creativity: The Creative Marketing Breakthrough Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titus, Philip A.

    2007-01-01

    Despite the increasing importance of personal creativity in today's business environment, few conceptual creativity frameworks have been presented in the marketing education literature. The purpose of this article is to advance the integration of creativity instruction into marketing classrooms by presenting an applied creative marketing…

  5. Market conditions for wind power and biofuel-based cogeneration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-07-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the prerequisites for biofuel-based cogeneration plants and for wind power, with special emphasis on following factors: 1/ The effect on the Swedish energy market of the opening of the power transmission networks for free competition within the electric power supply sector. 2/ A market model for the connection between the prices on fossil fuels, biomass fuels, electric power, and heating on the Swedish market. The analysis is made for three scenarios concerning carbon dioxide/energy taxation and the oil price development. The three scenarios are: A. Constant prices on heating oil and coal., B. An internationally uniform carbon dioxide tax, which successively is raised to SEK 0.40 per kilo carbon dioxide to the year 2010. In the year 2005 this will correspond to a doubling of the present prices on crude oil., C. An unilateral Swedish energy- and carbon dioxide tax of todays model (without exception for electric power generation), with constant import prices on heating oil and coal. The decisive factors for bio-cogeneration are construction- and operation costs, the costs of biofuels, and the sales price on electric power and heat. For wind power it is the construction- and operation costs that settle the conditions. 18 figs, 6 tabs

  6. Bidding strategy in pay-as-bid markets based on supplier-market interaction analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigdeli, N.; Afshar, K.; Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a new bidding strategy for pay-as-bid market suppliers is introduced. This method is based on a systematic analysis of interactions of market with the suppliers via several market indices as well as forecasting important indices by artificial neural networks. Besides, the proposed method considers the practical limitations in the system and deals with incomplete information handling, closely. Next, a strategic bidding approach is proposed for optimal bidding by the suppliers. In these investigations, the paper focus is on the experimental situation of Iran electricity market as a pay-as-bid market and a sample generating company with several generating units from this market is considered as the benchmark. The results of applying this approach to this generating company are representative of good performance of the proposed method.

  7. MARKETING CAPABILITIES FOR INNOVATION-BASED COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE SLOVENIAN MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojko Potocan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary role of marketing within the competitive advantage is innovation. The customer value-based differentiation strategies will drive the company’s market research efforts, its selection of target markets, its product development processes, its market communications programs, and its delivery processes. These processes require many specific capabilities that enable the firm to carry out activities necessary to move its products or services through the value chain. We must explore the role of distinctive marketing capabilities in competitive strategy of the company. As sources of competitive advantage, companies try to create their product or service differentiation by developing higher product or service quality, by using their knowledge to solving marketing problems, by communicating with their customers, and by satisfying customer’s needs. We also would like to confirm that superior customer service lead to company’s innovation. The paper closes with the implications of the findings and highlights promising future research avenues.

  8. Marketing Strategy of Small and Medium-sized Agriculture Enterprises Based on Five Competition Model%基于五力竞争模型的中小农产品企业营销策略研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张洁

    2011-01-01

    摘要:根据五力竞争模型,以食用油市场为例分析说明中小农产品企业营销策略。首先对农产品企业面临的经济环境进行了分析,其次对于中小农产品企业几个市场主体:中小企业、客户和其他大中小企业等之间的关系博弈进行了探讨,最后给出了营销策略。%Based on five competition model, this paper shows small and medium-sized agricultural enterprise marketing strategy research, a case study of cooking oil market is presented. First, the economic environment that small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises are faced is analyzed. Then several market subjects, the relationships among small and medium-sized enterprises, the customers, other medium enterprises, and so on, are discussed. Finally, marketing strategies are given.

  9. Simulation of sovereign CDS market based on interaction between market participant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bonggyun; Kim, Kyungwon

    2017-08-01

    A research for distributional property of financial asset is the subject of intense interest not only for financial theory but also for practitioner. Such respect is no exception to CDS market. The CDS market, which began to receive attention since the global financial debacle, is not well researched despite of the importance of research necessity. This research introduces creation of CDS market and use Ising system utilizing occurrence characteristics (to shift risk) as an important factor. Therefore the results of this paper would be of great assistance to both financial theory and practice. From this study, not only distributional property of the CDS market but also various statistics like multifractal characteristics could promote understanding about the market. A salient point in this study is that countries are mainly clustering into 2 groups and it might be because of market situation and geographical characteristics of each country. This paper suggested 2 simulation parameters representing this market based on understanding such CDS market situation. The estimated parameters are suitable for high and low risk event of CDS market respectively and these two parameters are complementary and can cover not only basic statistics but also multifractal properties of most countries. Therefore these estimated parameters can be used in researches preparing for a certain event (high or low risk). Finally this research will serve as a momentum double-checking indirectly the performance of Ising system based on these results.

  10. Studies in market-based electric power trade and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, Einar

    2000-01-01

    This is a compilation of articles written by the author during the last fifteen years. Most of the articles are related to the reform of the Norwegian electric power market. This reform led to the Energy Act of 1990 and to the subsequent development of the power markets. Some of the sections are in Norwegian, some in English. The sections discuss (1) Markets for electricity trade in Norway, (2) Economic incentives and public firm behaviour, (3) Market alternatives to the present forms of occasional power trade, (4) Socio-economic considerations about electricity pricing, (5) Scenarios for market based power trade in Norway, (6) Markets for electricity: economic reform of the Norwegian electricity industry, (7) The Norwegian power market, (8) A common Nordic energy market?, (9) Organization of supply markets for natural gas in Europe, (10) The extent of the central grid, (11) Optimum regulation of grid monopolies in the power trade, (12) Power markets and competition policy, (13) Deregulation of the Norwegian power sector, (14) designing a market based system for the Icelandic electricity industry and (15) regulation regimes for the power sector

  11. Electric market models, competitive model and alternative design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnedillo, O.

    2007-01-01

    Almost ten years after the liberalization of the Spanish electric system, its market design has remained basically unchanged. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider whether the current model continues to be adequate or whether it should be changed. However, although the current model is far from the absolute optimum, it is suited to the current state of the Spanish system. Only some improvements, such as the reform of the capacity guarantee payment can be undertaken immediately. It will only be possible to undertake other improvements as distribution companies cover all of their electricity needs in forward contracts acquired through a competitive process. (Author)

  12. A bargaining model of regulated markets' integration with an application to electricity supply market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Jingyuan; Smeers, Y.; Canon, E.

    1995-01-01

    An integrated market organized by regulated electric utilities is modelled. It is assumed that, given a price vector for the exchange of electricity between each pair of neighboring utilities, utilities independently maximize their own domestic social welfare subject to the zero profit constraint. An equilibrium price vector for exchanges among utilities is defined as the one which clears the exchanges for all pair of business partners. A single piecewise linear model is formulated for computing market equilibria. The model is used to simulate the electricity supply market organized by 11 western European countries

  13. Using the Logistic Regression model in supporting decisions of establishing marketing strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristinel CONSTANTIN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is about an instrumental research regarding the using of Logistic Regression model for data analysis in marketing research. The decision makers inside different organisation need relevant information to support their decisions regarding the marketing strategies. The data provided by marketing research could be computed in various ways but the multivariate data analysis models can enhance the utility of the information. Among these models we can find the Logistic Regression model, which is used for dichotomous variables. Our research is based on explanation the utility of this model and interpretation of the resulted information in order to help practitioners and researchers to use it in their future investigations

  14. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  15. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  16. Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractMarket share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of

  17. 7 CFR 1467.20 - Market-based conservation initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Market-based conservation initiatives. 1467.20....20 Market-based conservation initiatives. (a) Acceptance and use of contributions. Section 1241(e) of... for Conservation Improvements. (1) USDA recognizes that environmental benefits will be achieved by...

  18. Mathematical models in marketing a collection of abstracts

    CERN Document Server

    Funke, Ursula H

    1976-01-01

    Mathematical models can be classified in a number of ways, e.g., static and dynamic; deterministic and stochastic; linear and nonlinear; individual and aggregate; descriptive, predictive, and normative; according to the mathematical technique applied or according to the problem area in which they are used. In marketing, the level of sophistication of the mathe­ matical models varies considerably, so that a nurnber of models will be meaningful to a marketing specialist without an extensive mathematical background. To make it easier for the nontechnical user we have chosen to classify the models included in this collection according to the major marketing problem areas in which they are applied. Since the emphasis lies on mathematical models, we shall not as a rule present statistical models, flow chart models, computer models, or the empirical testing aspects of these theories. We have also excluded competitive bidding, inventory and transportation models since these areas do not form the core of ·the market...

  19. Developing a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadegh Feizollahi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many evidences, which emphasis on the benefits of using new technologies of information and communication in international business and many believe that E-Commerce can help satisfy customer explicit and implicit requirements. Internet shopping is a concept developed after the introduction of electronic commerce. Information technology (IT and its applications, specifically in the realm of the internet and e-mail promoted the development of e-commerce in terms of advertising, motivating and information. However, with the development of new technologies, credit and financial exchange on the internet websites were constructed so to facilitate e-commerce. The proposed study sends a total of 200 questionnaires to the target group (teachers - students - professionals - managers of commercial web sites and it manages to collect 130 questionnaires for final evaluation. Cronbach's alpha test is used for measuring reliability and to evaluate the validity of measurement instruments (questionnaires, and to assure construct validity, confirmatory factor analysis is employed. In addition, in order to analyze the research questions based on the path analysis method and to determine markets selection models, a regular technique is implemented. In the present study, after examining different aspects of e-commerce, we provide a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online marketing in Iran. These findings provide a consistent, targeted and holistic framework for the development of the Internet market in the country.

  20. An Export-Marketing Model for Pharmaceutical Firms (The Case of Iran)

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

    2013-01-01

    Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalizati...

  1. THE MODEL OF MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNAL MARKETING OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuliya Viktorovna Naurazbaeva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the research is the development of methods and models of management of the internal marketing of a higher education institute based on complex approach that includes strategic management methods and staff marketing and also technologies of Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP.Method or methodology of the research. Adapted models and methods of Neuro-Linguistic Programming, strategic management and marketing to management of marketing of the university which are presented as a complex of models that are reveling through the interrelation «external labor-market – higher education institute – internal labor-market».Results:1. The mechanism of management of the internal marketing of higher education institute based on the interrelation «external labor – market – higher education institute – internal labor-market» is offered that assumes solving problem of miscomparison between market conditions, university’s opportunities and demands of an employee of this educational institute.2. Methodical bases of formation of NLP-model that coordinates the requirements of labor collective as internal consumers of the educational service and needs of higher education institute in order to provide high quality services at all stages of creation and realization of an educational service are developed.3. The infological model of construction and choosing the strategy of the internal marketing of educational institute is presented.Practical implications. The received results can be used in practical management of higher education institute when forming the strategy of the internal marketing taking into account the specific features of concrete university.

  2. Complexity analysis based on generalized deviation for financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chao; Shang, Pengjian

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, a new modified method is proposed as a measure to investigate the correlation between past price and future volatility for financial time series, known as the complexity analysis based on generalized deviation. In comparison with the former retarded volatility model, the new approach is both simple and computationally efficient. The method based on the generalized deviation function presents us an exhaustive way showing the quantization of the financial market rules. Robustness of this method is verified by numerical experiments with both artificial and financial time series. Results show that the generalized deviation complexity analysis method not only identifies the volatility of financial time series, but provides a comprehensive way distinguishing the different characteristics between stock indices and individual stocks. Exponential functions can be used to successfully fit the volatility curves and quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data. Then we study the influence for negative domain of deviation coefficient and differences during the volatile periods and calm periods. after the data analysis of the experimental model, we found that the generalized deviation model has definite advantages in exploring the relationship between the historical returns and future volatility.

  3. Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim; Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    2015-01-01

    This book presents the works and research findings of physicists, economists, mathematicians, statisticians, and financial engineers who have undertaken data-driven modelling of market dynamics and other empirical studies in the field of Econophysics. During recent decades, the financial market landscape has changed dramatically with the deregulation of markets and the growing complexity of products. The ever-increasing speed and decreasing costs of computational power and networks have led to the emergence of huge databases. The availability of these data should permit the development of models that are better founded empirically, and econophysicists have accordingly been advocating that one should rely primarily on the empirical observations in order to construct models and validate them. The recent turmoil in financial markets and the 2008 crash appear to offer a strong rationale for new models and approaches. The Econophysics community accordingly has an important future role to play in market modelling....

  4. Evaluating the impacts of farmers' behaviors on a hypothetical agricultural water market based on double auction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Brozović, Nicholas; Minsker, Barbara

    2017-05-01

    Agricultural water markets are considered effective instruments to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity and to increase crop production. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how farmers' behaviors affect the performance of water markets. This study develops an agent-based model to explicitly incorporate farmers' behaviors, namely irrigation behavior (represented by farmers' sensitivity to soil water deficit λ) and bidding behavior (represented by farmers' rent seeking μ and learning rate β), in a hypothetical water market based on a double auction. The model is applied to the Guadalupe River Basin in Texas to simulate a hypothetical agricultural water market under various hydrological conditions. It is found that the joint impacts of the behavioral parameters on the water market are strong and complex. In particular, among the three behavioral parameters, λ affects the water market potential and its impacts on the performance of the water market are significant under most scenarios. The impacts of μ or β on the performance of the water market depend on the other two parameters. The water market could significantly increase crop production only when the following conditions are satisfied: (1) λ is small and (2) μ is small and/or β is large. The first condition requires efficient irrigation scheduling, and the second requires well-developed water market institutions that provide incentives to bid true valuation of water permits.

  5. Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

    2016-11-01

    Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

  6. Pay-as-bid based reactive power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, N.; Rabiee, A.; Shayanfar, H.A.

    2010-01-01

    In energy market clearing, the offers are stacked in increasing order and the offer that intersects demand curve, determines the market clearing price (MCP). In reactive power market, the location of reactive power compensator is so important. A low cost reactive producer may not essentially be favorable if it is far from the consumer. Likewise, a high cost local reactive compensator at a heavily loaded demand center of network could be inevitably an alternative required to produce reactive power to maintain the integrity of power system. Given the background, this paper presents a day-ahead reactive power market based on pay-as-bid (PAB) mechanism. Generators expected payment function (EPF) is used to construct a bidding framework. Then, total payment function (TPF) of generators is used as the objective function of optimal power flow (OPF) problem to clear the PAB based market. The CIGRE-32 bus test system is used to examine the effectiveness of the proposed reactive power market.

  7. Pay-as-bid based reactive power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amjady, N. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Rabiee, A., E-mail: Rabiee@iust.ac.i [Center of Excellence for Power System Automation and Operation, Department of Electrical Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shayanfar, H.A. [Center of Excellence for Power System Automation and Operation, Department of Electrical Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2010-02-15

    In energy market clearing, the offers are stacked in increasing order and the offer that intersects demand curve, determines the market clearing price (MCP). In reactive power market, the location of reactive power compensator is so important. A low cost reactive producer may not essentially be favorable if it is far from the consumer. Likewise, a high cost local reactive compensator at a heavily loaded demand center of network could be inevitably an alternative required to produce reactive power to maintain the integrity of power system. Given the background, this paper presents a day-ahead reactive power market based on pay-as-bid (PAB) mechanism. Generators expected payment function (EPF) is used to construct a bidding framework. Then, total payment function (TPF) of generators is used as the objective function of optimal power flow (OPF) problem to clear the PAB based market. The CIGRE-32 bus test system is used to examine the effectiveness of the proposed reactive power market.

  8. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  9. Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

    2018-02-01

    This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

  10. Electrodynamical Model of Quasi-Efficient Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilinski, Kirill N.; Stepanenko, Alexander S.

    The modelling of financial markets presents a problem which is both theoretically challenging and practically important. The theoretical aspects concern the issue of market efficiency which may even have political implications [1], whilst the practical side of the problem has clear relevance to portfolio management [2] and derivative pricing [3]. Up till now all market models contain "smart money" traders and "noise" traders whose joint activity constitutes the market [4, 5]. On a short time scale this traditional separation does not seem to be realistic, and is hardly acceptable since all high-frequency market participants are professional traders and cannot be separated into "smart" and "noisy." In this paper we present a "microscopic" model with homogenuous quasi-rational behaviour of traders, aiming to describe short time market behaviour. To construct the model we use an analogy between "screening" in quantum electrodynamics and an equilibration process in a market with temporal mispricing [6, 7]. As a result, we obtain the time-dependent distribution function of the returns which is in quantitative agreement with real market data and obeys the anomalous scaling relations recently reported for both high-frequency exchange rates [8], S&P500 [9] and other stock market indices [10, 11].

  11. 77 FR 30274 - Inupiat Energy Marketing, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-22

    ... Energy Marketing, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... Inupiat Energy Marketing, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate... protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov . To...

  12. 78 FR 56691 - Sapphire Power Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-13

    ... Power Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... Sapphire Power Marketing LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate... submission of protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov...

  13. 75 FR 48666 - Calpine Mid-Atlantic Marketing, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-11

    ...-Atlantic Marketing, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... proceeding, of Calpine Mid-Atlantic Marketing, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an... of protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov...

  14. 75 FR 24941 - PBF Power Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-06

    ... Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market- Based Rate Filing Includes Request for Blanket... of PBF Power Marketing LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate... protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov . To...

  15. 78 FR 28837 - Myotis Power Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-16

    ... Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for Blanket... Marketing LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate schedule, noting that... interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov . To facilitate electronic...

  16. 75 FR 5782 - Noble Energy Marketing and Trade Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-04

    ... Marketing and Trade Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request...-referenced proceeding of Noble Energy Marketing and Trade Corporation's application for market- based rate... electronic submission of protests and interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http...

  17. 77 FR 53197 - Raven Power Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-31

    ... Marketing LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for Blanket... Marketing LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate schedule, noting that... interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov . To facilitate electronic...

  18. 78 FR 20910 - Hess Energy Marketing, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-08

    ... Marketing, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for Blanket... Marketing, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate schedule, noting... interventions in lieu of paper, using the FERC Online links at http://www.ferc.gov . To facilitate electronic...

  19. Using Marketing Capability Maturity Model to Measure Marketing Processes at Iran Transfo Corporation

    OpenAIRE

    Arman Ahmadizad; Seyyed Mojtaba Akhavan Hejazi; Amirhossein Sabourtinat

    2011-01-01

    Abstract In this study marketing maturity model has been used in Iran Transfo Corporation. For this purpose, the five levels process maturity model has been applied. The statistical population includes managers, supervisors and experts of marketing and sales at Iran Transfo Corporation and due to its small size, the entire population has been studied as the sample of research. 11 questionnaires have been used for data collection its validity has been confirmed by content validity analysis ...

  20. Advancement of Marketing Developing Biotechnology-Based Business

    OpenAIRE

    Vilmantas, Vaidas; Melnikas, Borisas

    2014-01-01

    The article, in a complex way, analyzes the needs of marketing improvement in developing biotechnology-based business and highlights its role in the context of modern society and globalization challenges. The article distinguishes between the existing problems of biotechnology business, the present perspectives and specific characteristics of developing the marketing of biotechnological business. The paper represents the possibility of the substantial modernization of marketing tools with reg...

  1. A Novel Marketing Strategy based on Information Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiao

    2012-01-01

    Marketing, electronic data interchange, internet data center, electric ordering system Abstract:Marketing is the process of performing market research, selling products and/or services to customers and promoting them via advertising to further enhance sales. It generates the strategy that underlies sales techniques, business communication, and business developments. Information technology is the acquisition, processing, storage and dissemination of vocal, pictorial, textual and numerical information by a microelectronics-based combination of computing and telecommunications.

  2. Model of Risk Forewarn and Investment Decision in Stock Markets and Its Realization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZOU Hui-wen; TANG Bing-yong; WANG Li-ping; XU Guang-wei

    2004-01-01

    Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision model based on the forewarn of the market risk signal. Then, on probing into the structure and function of the realization of the model, the paper presents the method of data interface.

  3. Research on Capacity Addition using Market Model with Transmission Congestion under Competitive Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsura, Yasufumi; Attaviriyanupap, Pathom; Kataoka, Yoshihiko

    In this research, the fundamental premises for deregulation of the electric power industry are reevaluated. The authors develop a simple model to represent wholesale electricity market with highly congested network. The model is developed by simplifying the power system and market in New York ISO based on available data of New York ISO in 2004 with some estimation. Based on the developed model and construction cost data from the past, the economic impact of transmission line addition on market participants and the impact of deregulation on power plant additions under market with transmission congestion are studied. Simulation results show that the market signals may fail to facilitate proper capacity additions and results in the undesirable over-construction and insufficient-construction cycle of capacity addition.

  4. Photovoltaic subsystem marketing and distribution model: programming manual. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-07-01

    Complete documentation of the marketing and distribution (M and D) computer model is provided. The purpose is to estimate the costs of selling and transporting photovoltaic solar energy products from the manufacturer to the final customer. The model adjusts for the inflation and regional differences in marketing and distribution costs. The model consists of three major components: the marketing submodel, the distribution submodel, and the financial submodel. The computer program is explained including the input requirements, output reports, subprograms and operating environment. The program specifications discuss maintaining the validity of the data and potential improvements. An example for a photovoltaic concentrator collector demonstrates the application of the model.

  5. A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

  6. Gas analysis modeling system forecast for the Energy Modeling Forum North American Natural Gas Market Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariner-Volpe, B.; Trapmann, W.

    1989-01-01

    The Gas Analysis Modeling System is a large computer-based model for analyzing the complex US natural gas industry, including production, transportation, and consumption activities. The model was developed and first used in 1982 after the passage of the NGPA, which initiated a phased decontrol of most natural gas prices at the wellhead. The categorization of gas under the NGPA and the contractual nature of the natural gas market, which existed at the time, were primary factors in the development of the basic structure of the model. As laws and regulations concerning the natural gas market have changed, the model has evolved accordingly. Recent increases in competition in the wellhead market have also led to changes in the model. GAMS produces forecasts of natural gas production, consumption, and prices annually through 2010. It is an engineering-economic model that incorporates several different mathematical structures in order to represent the interaction of the key groups involved in the natural gas market. GAMS has separate supply and demand components that are equilibrated for each year of the forecast by means of a detailed transaction network

  7. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  8. Strategic forward contracting in electricity markets: modelling and analysis by equilibrium method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wong, K.P.; Yu, C.W.; Chung, C.Y.

    2004-01-01

    Contractual arrangement plays an important role in mitigating market power in electricity markets. The issue of whether rational generators would voluntarily enter contract markets through a strategic incentive is examined, and the factors which could affect this strategic contracting behaviour. A two-stage game model is presented to formulate the competition of generators in bid-based pool spot markets and contract markets, as well as the interaction between these two markets. The affine supply function equilibrium (SFE) method is used to model competitive bidding for the spot market, while the contract market is modelled with the general conjectural variation method. The proposed methodology allows asymmetric, multiple strategic generators having capacity constraints and affine marginal costs with non-zero intercepts to be taken into account. It is shown that the presence of forward contract markets will complicate the solution to the affine SFE, and a new methodology is developed in this regard. Strategic contracting behaviours are analysed in the context of asymmetric, multiple strategic generators. A numerical example is used to verify theoretical results. It is shown that the observability of contract markets plays an important role in fostering generators' strategic contracting incentive, and that this contracting behaviour could also be affected by generators' cost parameters and demand elasticity. (author)

  9. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  10. Analyzing the Effect of New Product Development Using an Agent Based Consumer Behavior Model - An Application to the Sanitary Products Market in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Kitanaka, Hideaki; Shiba, Naoki; Tanaka, Hirokazu

    2005-01-01

    When new products are launched in the marketplace, companies try to alter market conditions in their favor through various marketing activities. Such activities will cause several phenomena in the marketplace. Word-of-mouth communication is one of such phenomena. Word-of-mouth communication attracts wide attention from researchers and practitioners because of its potential influence in consumers purchasing decision process. We have chosen sanitary products because of unique characteristics of...

  11. Market based consumer adaptation. Preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saele, Hanne

    2005-04-01

    This report is a foundation for further research in the project ''Market based consumer adaptation'', project period 2005-2008. The report describes characteristics of shortage periods for both energy and effects, low priority consumption, power products and network tariffs that may contribute to increased flexibility in consumption and limitations in the IT-systems of today and discusses what problems would be of interest for further studies. The reduction of low priority consumption and the activation of price elasticity would be challenges both for effect and energy shortages. Private consumption would however, partly be different due to the time perspective. It is expected that periods of effect shortages would be of only a few hours and the challenge would be to obtain sufficient response at an hourly basis at load disconnection. The energy shortage is expected to last longer which results in problems in obtaining sufficient and real consumer reduction over time in order to reduce the danger of critical shortage. Important elements in order to supply new power products and network tariffs which contributes to increased flexibility in the consumption, are technology for current registration and remote control of consumption, contracts between the involved parties and the framework conditions that gives incentives for establishing new network/power products. When several parties shall use the same measurements for accounting it would be necessary for all the figures to arrive in time and that corrections are avoided as much as possible. It would also be challenging for the parties whether new products satisfy the regulations. Pricing in network tariffs is subject to more legal public regulations than developing a power product. This may make it difficult to produce ''correct'' network tariffs due to regulation and at the same time interest more customers to making deals with such tariffs. Even if the power suppliers to a certain extent, are more free to develop

  12. A strategic gaming model for health information exchange markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Diego A; Feijoo, Felipe; Zayas-Castro, Jose L; Levin, Scott; Das, Tapas K

    2018-03-01

    Current market conditions create incentives for some providers to exercise control over patient data in ways that unreasonably limit its availability and use. Here we develop a game theoretic model for estimating the willingness of healthcare organizations to join a health information exchange (HIE) network and demonstrate its use in HIE policy design. We formulated the model as a bi-level integer program. A quasi-Newton method is proposed to obtain a strategy Nash equilibrium. We applied our modeling and solution technique to 1,093,177 encounters for exchanging information over a 7.5-year period in 9 hospitals located within a three-county region in Florida. Under a set of assumptions, we found that a proposed federal penalty of up to $2,000,000 has a higher impact on increasing HIE adoption than current federal monetary incentives. Medium-sized hospitals were more reticent to adopt HIE than large-sized hospitals. In the presence of collusion among multiple hospitals to not adopt HIE, neither federal incentives nor proposed penalties increase hospitals' willingness to adopt. Hospitals' apathy toward HIE adoption may threaten the value of inter-connectivity even with federal incentives in place. Competition among hospitals, coupled with volume-based payment systems, creates no incentives for smaller hospitals to exchange data with competitors. Medium-sized hospitals need targeted actions (e.g., outside technological assistance, group purchasing arrangements) to mitigate market incentives to not adopt HIE. Strategic game theoretic models help to clarify HIE adoption decisions under market conditions at play in an extremely complex technology environment.

  13. Developing Marketing Higher Education Strategies Based on Students’ Satisfaction Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Orîndaru

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The educational system worldwide is currently under the spotlight as it shows significant signs of an ongoing crisis in its search for resources, visibility in the crowded market and significance to the ever-changing society. Within this framework, higher education institutions (HEIs are taking significant actions for maintaining students as clients of their educational services. As competition on this market is becoming stronger, HEIs face difficulties in keeping students, leading them to a continuous evaluation of student satisfaction indicators. Beyond HEIs’ managers, researchers in marketing higher education have contributed to the development of a comprehensive literature where still very few have forwarded a longitudinal research model for student satisfaction evaluation despite the need for such approaches. Given this context, the current paper presents a first step towards a longitudinal study as it displays, in a compare and contrast vision, the results of two different quantitative research projects developed in the same student community, with the same objective, but conducted in two different years. Among the most significant results of this research refer to an important decline in students’ satisfaction with a significant increase in the number of students that have a neutral perception. This is highly expected to determine a major impact on university’s overall performance and, therefore, it constitutes a strong argument for determining underlying causes, and especially developing the appropriate marketing strategies to tackle with these issues. Based on this result and other similar research outcomes, strategic and tactic recommendations are granted in the final part of this paper.

  14. Oops! Many Marketing Models are Wrong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Mesly

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Muchos modelos de ¿marketing¿ que se encuentran en revistas científicas contienen errores de modelado. Este fenómeno ha sido observado desde hace más de treinta años, pero poco se ha hecho para corregir la situación. A fin de evitar señalar autores particulares, se discutirá un ejemplo que se encuentra en los periódicos. Formas apropiadas de los modelos son meticulosamente explicadas y se proporcionan ejemplos de enfoques adecuados de unos autores de ¿marketing¿. El objetivo de este trabajo, no es despectivo sobre la literatura del ¿marketing, más bien es un esfuerzo por rectificar la forma en que la experimentación se hace y se explica.

  15. Electricity market liberalisation - the German model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.

    2002-01-01

    This article discusses the experience gained as a result of the opening of the German electricity market - not only from the national but also from European and international points of view. The history of electricity market liberalisation in Germany is described and the market's structure is compared with that of Switzerland. Both the advantages and disadvantages that have been brought about by liberalisation are discussed as well as the role of state regulation. Certain problem areas still to be tackled are discussed, such those in the areas of cartels, possibilities of supplier-change and tariffs. Also, liberalisation in the context of the European Union's efforts in this area are discussed, especially with respect to the consideration of differing structures in the various member countries of the Union

  16. Research on Marketing Channel of Mobile Manufacturer Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Hui; LI Shi-ming; LAN Yong

    2006-01-01

    Research on "marketing channel" of mobile attracts much attention in these years,but there're only few articles referring to how to optimize the disposition of channel resources for mobile manufacturers. Based on a typically multiplex marketing channel system of mobile manufacturer, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) structure model is established. Through the judgment matrix, simple and total hierarchy arrangement, consistent test, this paper gets the weight of each kind of marketing channel of mobile manufacturer. It provides the practical reference value for mobile manufacturers to distribute resources of marketing channels.

  17. Global Distribution of Businesses Marketing Stem Cell-Based Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Israel; Ahmad, Amina; Bansal, Akhil; Kapoor, Tanvir; Sipp, Douglas; Rasko, John E J

    2016-08-04

    A structured search reveals that online marketing of stem-cell-based interventions is skewed toward developed economies including the United States, Ireland, Australia, and Germany. Websites made broad, imprecise therapeutic claims and frequently failed to detail procedures. Widespread marketing poses challenges to regulators, bioethicists, and those seeking realistic hope from therapies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lise, W.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Kuik, O.; Kemfert, C.; Ostling, R.; Heinzow, T.

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight

  19. Flow-based market coupling. Stepping stone towards nodal pricing?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Welle, A.J.

    2012-07-01

    For achieving one internal energy market for electricity by 2014, market coupling is deployed to integrate national markets into regional markets and ultimately one European electricity market. The extent to which markets can be coupled depends on the available transmission capacities between countries. Since interconnections are congested from time to time, congestion management methods are deployed to divide the scarce available transmission capacities over market participants. For further optimization of the use of available transmission capacities while maintaining current security of supply levels, flow-based market coupling (FBMC) will be implemented in the CWE region by 2013. Although this is an important step forward, important hurdles for efficient congestion management remain. Hence, flow based market coupling is compared to nodal pricing, which is often considered as the most optimal solution from theoretical perspective. In the context of decarbonised power systems it is concluded that advantages of nodal pricing are likely to exceed its disadvantages, warranting further development of FBMC in the direction of nodal pricing.

  20. Redistribution by insurance market regulation: Analyzing a ban on gender-based retirement annuities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkelstein, Amy; Poterba, James; Rothschild, Casey

    2009-01-01

    We illustrate how equilibrium screening models can be used to evaluate the economic consequences of insurance market regulation. We calibrate and solve a model of the United Kingdom's compulsory annuity market and examine the impact of gender-based pricing restrictions. We find that the endogenous adjustment of annuity contract menus in response to such restrictions can undo up to half of the redistribution from men to women that would occur with exogenous Social Security-like annuity contracts. Our findings indicate the importance of endogenous contract responses and illustrate the feasibility of employing theoretical insurance market equilibrium models for quantitative policy analysis.

  1. An integrated ant colony optimization approach to compare strategies of clearing market in electricity markets. Agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Maleki-Shoja, B.; Skandari, M.R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an innovative model of agent based simulation, based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm is proposed in order to compare three available strategies of clearing wholesale electricity markets, i.e. uniform, pay-as-bid, and generalized Vickrey rules. The supply side actors of the power market are modeled as adaptive agents who learn how to bid strategically to optimize their profit through indirect interaction with other actors of the market. The proposed model is proper for bidding functions with high number of dimensions and enables modelers to avoid curse of dimensionality as dimension grows. Test systems are then used to study the behavior of each pricing rule under different degrees of competition and heterogeneity. Finally, the pricing rules are comprehensively compared using different economic criteria such as average cleared price, efficiency of allocation, and price volatility. Also, principle component analysis (PCA) is used to rank and select the best price rule. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first study that uses ACO for assessing strategies of wholesale electricity market. (author)

  2. The Interval Stability of an Electricity Market Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijuan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined with the electric power market dynamic model put forward by Alvarado, an interval model of electricity markets is established and investigated in this paper pertaining to the range of demand elasticity with suppliers and consumers. The stability of an electricity market framework with demand elasticity interval is analyzed. The conclusions characterizing the interval model provided are derived by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function and using the theory of interval dynamical system in differential equations and matrix inequality theory and so forth. Applying the corollary obtained can judge the system stability by available data about demand elasticity. The obtained results are validated and illustrated by a case example.

  3. Modeling large data sets in marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balasubramanian, S; Gupta, S; Kamakura, W; Wedel, M

    In the last two decades, marketing databases have grown significantly in terms of size and richness of available information. The analysis of these databases raises several information-related and statistical issues. We aim at providing an overview of a selection of issues related to the analysis of

  4. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  5. A consensus-based dynamics for market volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabatelli, Lorenzo; Richmond, Peter

    2004-12-01

    We develop a model of trading orders based on opinion dynamics. The agents may be thought as the share holders of a major mutual fund rather than as direct traders. The balance between their buy and sell orders determines the size of the fund order (volume) and has an impact on prices and indexes. We assume agents interact simultaneously to each other through a Sznajd-like interaction. Their degree of connection is determined by the probability of changing opinion independently of what their neighbours are doing. We assume that such a probability may change randomly, after each transaction, of an amount proportional to the relative difference between the volatility then measured and a benchmark that we assume to be an exponential moving average of the past volume values. We show how this simple model is compatible with some of the main statistical features observed for the asset volumes in financial markets.

  6. Theoretical Model of Pricing Behavior on the Polish Wholesale Fuel Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bejger Sylwester

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a theoretical model of strategic pricing behavior of the players in a Polish wholesale fuel market. This model is consistent with the characteristics of the industry, the wholesale market, and the players. The model is based on the standard methodology of repeated games with a built-in adjustment to a focal price, which resembles the Import Parity Pricing (IPP mechanism. From the equilibrium of the game, we conclude that the focal price policy implies a parallel pricing strategic behavior on the market.

  7. Virtual Community Based Destination Marketing with YouTube

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sambhanthan, Arunasalam; Thelijjagoda, Samantha; Good, Alice

    2016-01-01

    YouTube has now evolved into a powerful medium for social interaction. Utilizing YouTube for enhancing marketing endeavours is a strategy practiced by marketing professionals across several industries. This paper rationalizes on the different strategies of leveraging YouTube-based platforms...... for effective destination marketing by the hospitality industry (hotels) and provides insights on the critical drivers and challenges embedded within YouTube-based community interactions for destination marketing. The comments made by YouTube users have been subjected to a content analysis and the results...... are reported under the five broad clusters of virtual communities. More broadly, the typology of virtual communities is adapted to evaluate the YouTube platform for effective destination marketing....

  8. Modeling market power in electricity markets: Is the devil only in the details?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bautista, Guillermo; Anjos, Miguel F.; Vannelli, Anthony

    2007-01-15

    Basic approximations of the transmission system are ubiquitous in the literature on modeling competition in electricity markets. Because the main concern of market power is with active power, reactive power and voltage-related issues are commonly neglected, even though they are inherent features of an electrical power system. However, the usefulness of stylized formulations that do not comprise these system elements may be severely limited. (author)

  9. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  10. A comprehensive market-based scheme for VAR management and pricing in the electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Araby, E.E. [Qassim Univ., Alqassim, Meldia (Saudi Arabia). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    In order to enable a power system to operate within an acceptable degree of reliability and security, the provision of VAR ancillary services from the VAR sources in electricity markets is the most effective method. The procurement of VAR services is particularly problematic for transmission operators as it relates to pricing mechanism and various technical issues during system operation. This paper proposed an integrated market-based approach for pricing VAR service in the electricity market. The paper was an extension of the authors' proposal for the provision of the VAR service from dynamic VAR sources in a competitive market-based environment. The formulation was modified to include VAR utilization payment and possible power system transition states multiple base cases and contingencies with their associated occurrence probabilities. The paper discussed the basic terms of the proposed approach including the VAR market objective and generator VAR output and its compensation. The mathematical formulation that considered VAR capacity payment, utilization payment and operating costs under the previous transition states in a unified single problem were introduced. The overall problem formulation and solution algorithm were also presented as a large-scale mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem. It was concluded that the proposed method was suited for the simulation and analysis of the existing VAR market. 8 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs., 2 appendices.

  11. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2008-01-01

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  12. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lise, Wietze [IBS Research and Consultancy, Aga Han, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir, 34433 Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Ames Hall 313, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2008-07-15

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  13. Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models

    CERN Document Server

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.

  14. Challenges in the development of market-based pipeline investments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Von Bassenheim, G.; Mohitpour, M.; Klaudt, D.; Jenkins, A.

    2000-01-01

    The challenges, risks and uncertainties that the natural gas industry faces in developing market-based pipeline projects were discussed. Market-based pipeline investments are fundamentally different from user-driven projects. Market-based projected involve finding enough energy users and linking them with a pipeline infrastructure to viable supplies of natural gas. Each unique project is developed individually and requires a strong corporate vision and support before it can be successfully implemented. The three phases of a pipeline investment include the business development phase, the project development phase, and the implementation/operations phase. Market-based companies will need a clear vision for long-term goals and the desire to succeed. The company will have to prepare a detailed strategy and policies that clearly define geographic areas of operations, risk tolerance, availability of capital and expected project performance. 3 refs., 3 tabs., 2 figs

  15. Tribal Community-Based Social Marketing Training Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Community-Based Social Marketing (CBSM) Training Guide and recycling toolkit provides an overview of how to increase the adoption of sustainable behaviors and recycling practices with a community.

  16. CSC Tip Sheets: Community-Based Social Marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Use community-based social marketing (CBSM) to facilitate direct neighbor-to-neighbor communication and influence to promote behavior change. In-person communications are often complemented by electronic social media tools.

  17. Modeling and prioritizing demand response programs in power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aalami, H.A.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Yousefi, G.R.

    2010-01-01

    One of the responsibilities of power market regulator is setting rules for selecting and prioritizing demand response (DR) programs. There are many different alternatives of DR programs for improving load profile characteristics and achieving customers' satisfaction. Regulator should find the optimal solution which reflects the perspectives of each DR stakeholder. Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) is a proper method for handling such optimization problems. In this paper, an extended responsive load economic model is developed. The model is based on price elasticity and customer benefit function. Prioritizing of DR programs can be realized by means of Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. Considerations of ISO/utility/customer regarding the weighting of attributes are encountered by entropy method. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for selecting the most effective DR program. Numerical studies are conducted on the load curve of the Iranian power grid in 2007. (author)

  18. Optimal patent length and breadth in an R&D driven market with evolving consumer preferences: an evolutionary multi-agent based modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Çevikarslan, Salih

    The aims of this paper are twofold. The first is to analyze the interaction between R&D activities of firms and heterogeneous consumer preferences in structuring the evolution of an industry. The second is to explore the effects of patent length and breadth on market outcomes. To answer these

  19. An agent-based model of farmer decision-making and water quality impacts at the watershed scale under markets for carbon allowances and a second-generation biofuel crop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Tze Ling; Eheart, J. Wayland; Cai, Ximing; Braden, John B.

    2011-09-01

    An agent-based model of farmers' crop and best management practice (BMP) decisions is developed and linked to a hydrologic-agronomic model of a watershed, to examine farmer behavior, and the attendant effects on stream nitrate load, under the influence of markets for conventional crops, carbon allowances, and a second-generation biofuel crop. The agent-based approach introduces interactions among farmers about new technologies and market opportunities, and includes the updating of forecast expectations and uncertainties using Bayesian inference. The model is applied to a semi-hypothetical example case of farmers in the Salt Creek Watershed in Central Illinois, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to effect a first-order assessment of the plausibility of the results. The results show that the most influential factors affecting farmers' decisions are crop prices, production costs, and yields. The results also show that different farmer behavioral profiles can lead to different predictions of farmer decisions. The farmers who are predicted to be more likely to adopt new practices are those who interact more with other farmers, are less risk averse, quick to adjust their expectations, and slow to reduce their forecast confidence. The decisions of farmers have direct water quality consequences, especially those pertaining to the adoption of the second-generation biofuel crop, which are estimated to lead to reductions in stream nitrate load. The results, though empirically untested, appear plausible and consistent with general farmer behavior. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the coupled agent-based and hydrologic-agronomic models for normative research on watershed management on the water-energy nexus.

  20. A Knowledge-Based Consultant for Financial Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Kastner, John; Apte, Chidanand; Griesmer, James

    1986-01-01

    This article describes an effort to develop a knowledge-based financial marketing consultant system. Financial marketing is an excellent vehicle for both research and application in artificial intelligence (AI). This domain differs from the great majority of previous expert system domains in that there are no well-defined answers (in traditional sense); the goal here is to obtain satisfactory arguments to support the conclusions made. A large OPS5-based system was implemented as an initial pr...

  1. Documentation of the petroleum market model (PMM). Appendix: Model developer's report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The EIA Model Documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System provides a complete description of the Petroleum Market Model's (PMM) methodology, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developer's Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation and provides an assessment of the sensitivity of PMM results to changes in input data. The MDR analysis for PMM is performed by varying several sets of input variables one-at-a-time and examining the effect on a set of selected output variables. The analysis is based on stand-alone, rather than integrated, National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) runs. This means that other NEMS modules are not responding to PMM outputs. The PMM models petroleum refining and marketing. The purpose of the PMM is to project petroleum product prices, refining activities, and movements of petroleum into the United States and among domestic regions. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption in, the refining industry. The PMM is also used to analyze a wide variety of petroleum-related issues and policies, in order to foster better understanding of the petroleum refining and marketing industry and the effects of certain policies and regulations. The PMM simulates the operation of petroleum refineries in the United States, including the supply and transportation of crude oil to refineries, the regional processing of these raw materials into petroleum products, and the distribution of petroleum products to meet regional demands. The essential outputs of this model are product prices, a petroleum supply/demand balance, demands for refinery fuel use, and capacity expansion

  2. Termination of Dynamic Contracts in an Equilibrium Labor Market Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Cheng

    2005-01-01

    I construct an equilibrium model of the labor market where workers and firms enter into dyamic contracts that can potentially last forever, but are subject to optimal terminations. Upon a termination, the firm hires a new worker, and the worker who is terminated receives a termination compensation from the firm and is then free to go back to the labor market to seek new employment opportunities and enter into new dynamic contracts. The model permits only two types of equilibrium terminations ...

  3. Power system models - A description of power markets and outline of market modelling in Wilmar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meibom, Peter; Morthorst, Poul Erik; Nielsen, Lars Henrik

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the Wilmar project is to investigate technical and economical problems related to large-scale deployment of renewable sources and to develop a modelling tool that can handle system simulations for a larger geographical region with anInternational power exchange. Wilmar is an abbreviati...... description of the power market models usedin Wilmar is given in the second part, though the mathematical presentations of the models are left out of this report and will be treated in a later publication from the project.......The aim of the Wilmar project is to investigate technical and economical problems related to large-scale deployment of renewable sources and to develop a modelling tool that can handle system simulations for a larger geographical region with anInternational power exchange. Wilmar is an abbreviation...... of “Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets”. The project was started in 2002 and is funded by the EU’s 5th Research programme on energy and environment. Risø National Laboratory isco-ordinator of the project and partners include SINTEF, Kungliga Tekniska Högskola, University of Stuttgart...

  4. Mature and emerging organic markets: Modelling consumer attitude and behaviour with Partial Least Square Approach

    OpenAIRE

    von Meyer-Höfer, Marie; von der Wense, Vera; Padilla Bravo, Carlos; Spiller, Achim

    2013-01-01

    Although the organic food sector has been the subject of research for around 20 years, little is known about consumer behaviour when comparing developed and emerging organic food markets using causal research models. Thus, by developing a behavioural model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), the aim of this research article is to investigate the main determinants of organic food consumption in a mature (Germany) and an emerging (Chile) organic market. Subjects aged 18 or above wer...

  5. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  6. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  7. A unifying energy-based approach to stability of power grids with market dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegink, Tjerk; De Persis, Claudio; van der Schaft, Arjan

    2017-01-01

    In this paper a unifying energy-based approach is provided to the modeling and stability analysis of power systems coupled with market dynamics. We consider a standard model of the power network with a third-order model for the synchronous generators involving voltage dynamics. By applying the

  8. MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNAL LABOR MARKET (BASING ON CASES OF THE SVERDLOVSK REGION CITY-FORMING ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Orekhova

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an estimation procedure of regional labor market influence on sustainability of internal labor market institutions. The paper refines the categories of regional and internal labor market. Internal labor market institutions have been classified and evaluated regarding the level of their sustainability (basing on cases of the Sverdlovsk region city-forming enterprises. As a result the model of labor expenses evaluation is elaborated for enterprises concerned.

  9. Real and financial interacting markets: A behavioral macro-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a model in which the real sector and the stock market interact. •In the stock market there are optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists. •We detect the mechanisms through which instabilities get transmitted between markets. •In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”. •We show the effects of increasing the interaction degree between the two markets. -- Abstract: In the present paper we propose a model in which the real side of the economy, described via a Keynesian good market approach, interacts with the stock market with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists, that respectively overestimate and underestimate the reference value due to a belief bias. Agents may switch between optimism and pessimism according to which behavior is more profitable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first contribution considering both real and financial interacting markets and an evolutionary selection process for which an analytical study is performed. Indeed, employing analytical and numerical tools, we detect the mechanisms and the channels through which the stability of the isolated real and financial sectors leads to instability for the two interacting markets. In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”, which allows us to study the complete three-dimensional system by decomposing it into two subsystems, i.e., the isolated financial and real markets, easier to analyze, that are then linked through a parameter describing the interaction degree between the two markets. We derive the stability conditions both for the isolated markets and for the whole system with interacting markets. Next, we show how to apply the interaction degree approach to our model. Among the various scenarios we are led to analyze, the most interesting one is that in which the isolated markets are stable, but their interaction is destabilizing

  10. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for viral marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Siti Suhaila; Akil, Ku Azlina Ku; Chulan, Majdah; Sharif, Noorzila

    2017-11-01

    Viral marketing is a marketing strategy utilizes social media to spread information about a product or services provided. It is the most powerful way to share information in a short amount of time. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic of viral marketing within a time duration in the point of view of mathematics. This study used the epidemiological model known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). The model consists of a system of three differential equations with three state variables namely susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). It considers a case of SIR model with demography. Numerical experiments have been performed. The results show that viral marketing reaches its peak within two days. The online messages shared will become higher if the initial number of the infected individual has been increased.

  11. Simulation of ridesourcing using agent-based demand and supply regional models : potential market demand for first-mile transit travel and reduction in vehicle miles traveled in the San Francisco Bay Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we use existing modeling tools and data from the San Francisco Bay Area : (California) to understand the potential market demand for a first mile transit access service : and possible reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (a...

  12. The NOx Budget. Market-based control of tropospheric ozone in the northeastern United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farrell, Alex; Carter, Robert; Raufer, Roger

    1999-01-01

    The NOx Budget is a marketable emissions allowance system currently being adopted by states in the Northeastern US to reduce tropospheric ozone concentrations to healthful levels in a cost-effective manner. Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are currently regulated within the existing Command and Control (CAC) framework. The introduction of a market-based approach will further reduce emissions, but will not resolve all regulatory uncertainties. These implementation concerns are identified and discussed. Cost savings and emissions reductions patterns which will arise under several different scenarios are determined through the use of a dynamic, relaxed mixed-integer linear programming model of the NOx allowance market. Like other market-based pollution control programs, the NOx Budget is found to be more efficient than CAC options. Restrictions on the market designed to address perceived flaws are found to be expensive but ineffectual

  13. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097

  14. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  15. Curiosity Killed The Groupon Copycat China-based websites mimicking the Groupon model fight for survival in a vicious, overcrowded market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU YUE

    2011-01-01

    After a year of reckless expansion,China's group buying websites are facing some chilly headwinds.Gaopeng.com,a joint venturebetween Groupon and China's Internet giant Tencent,has laid off more than 400 employees and closed down 13 local branches.The ambitious company vowed to dominate China's online group-buying market only a few months ago when it was launched.It made headlines by aggressively poaching staff from competitors.

  16. Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

    A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

  17. An agent-based analysis of the German electricity market with transmission capacity constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veit, Daniel J.; Weidlich, Anke; Krafft, Jacob A.

    2009-01-01

    While some agent-based models have been developed for analyzing the German electricity market, there has been little research done on the emerging issue of intra-German congestion and its effects on the bidding behavior of generator agents. Yet, studies of other markets have shown that transmission grid constraints considerably affect strategic behavior in electricity markets. In this paper, the implications of transmission constraints on power markets are analyzed for the case of Germany. Market splitting is applied in the case of congestion in the grid. For this purpose, the agent-based modeling of electricity systems (AMES) market package developed by Sun and Tesfatsion is modified to fit the German context, including a detailed representation of the German high-voltage grid and its interconnections. Implications of transmission constraints on prices and social welfare are analyzed for scenarios that include strategic behavior of market participants and high wind power generation. It can be shown that strategic behavior and transmission constraints are inter-related and may pose severe problems in the future German electricity market.

  18. An agent-based analysis of the German electricity market with transmission capacity constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veit, Daniel J.; Weidlich, Anke; Krafft, Jacob A. [University of Mannheim, Dieter Schwarz Chair of Business Administration, E-Business and E-Government, 68131 Mannheim (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    While some agent-based models have been developed for analyzing the German electricity market, there has been little research done on the emerging issue of intra-German congestion and its effects on the bidding behavior of generator agents. Yet, studies of other markets have shown that transmission grid constraints considerably affect strategic behavior in electricity markets. In this paper, the implications of transmission constraints on power markets are analyzed for the case of Germany. Market splitting is applied in the case of congestion in the grid. For this purpose, the agent-based modeling of electricity systems (AMES) market package developed by Sun and Tesfatsion is modified to fit the German context, including a detailed representation of the German high-voltage grid and its interconnections. Implications of transmission constraints on prices and social welfare are analyzed for scenarios that include strategic behavior of market participants and high wind power generation. It can be shown that strategic behavior and transmission constraints are inter-related and may pose severe problems in the future German electricity market. (author)

  19. Research on the Market Risk Management of Internet Financial Product Based on GRACH-VAR Model%基于GRACH-VAR模型的互联网理财产品市场风险管理研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈倩文

    2015-01-01

    随着余额宝等基于互联网的理财产品迅速占领投资市场,我们看到了互联网思维下金融理财的一大新模式:凡是有留存资金就关联货币基金。本文引入VAR模型对互联网理财产品进行风险分析,以余额宝2013年5月上线至今的万份收益为样本数据,探讨互联网理财产品的收益波动性,评估其市场风险。借鉴前期相关研究,GARCH-VAR模型可以很好地刻画收益率序列的波动性,研究发现:目前互联网金融产品的市场风险仍处可控范围,波动性较小。%With Internet based financial products such as Yu’ebao occupying the investment market rapidly, a new financial mode under the Internet appears: all retained funds associated with monetary fund. This article introduced the VAR model to analyze the risk of Internet financial product. Taking the 10 thousands of earnings of Yu’ebao since May 2013 as the sample data, this article discusses the earnings volatility of Internet financial products and evaluate the market risk. Referring to previous studies, GARCH-VAR model can well describe the volatility of yield sequence. The study found that: the current Internet financial products market risk are still controllable with light volatility.

  20. Model of the electric energy market in Poland. Assumptions, structure and operation principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulagowski, W.

    1994-01-01

    Present state of works on model of electric energy market in Poland with special consideration of bulk energy market is presented. The designed model based on progressive, evolutionary changes is so elastic, that when keeping general structure and fundamentals the particular solutions can be verified or corrected. The changes in the electric energy market are considered as an integral part of existing restructuring process of Polish electric energy sector. The rate of those changes and the mode of their introduction influence on introduction speed of the new solutions. (author). 14 refs, 4 figs

  1. Synthesised model of market orientation-business performance relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Nwokah

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation. While much empirical works have centered on market orientation, the generalisability of its impact on performance of the Food and Beverages organisations in the Nigeria context has been under-researched. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study adopted a triangulation methodology (quantitative and qualitative approach. Data was collected from key informants using a research instrument. Returned instruments were analyzed using nonparametric correlation through the use of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 10. Findings: The study validated the earlier instruments but did not find any strong association between market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context using the food and beverages organisations for the study. The reasons underlying the weak relationship between market orientation and business performance of the Food and Beverages organisations is government policies, new product development, diversification, innovation and devaluation of the Nigerian currency. One important finding of this study is that market orientation leads to business performance through some moderating variables. Implications: The study recommends that Nigerian Government should ensure a stable economy and make economic policies that will enhance existing business development in the country. Also, organisations should have performance measurement systems to detect the impact of investment on market orientation with the aim of knowing how the organisation works. Originality/Value: This study significantly refines the body of knowledge concerning the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation, and thereby offers a model of market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context for marketing scholars and practitioners. This model will, no doubt, contribute to the body of

  2. Why Brazil Needed a New Market Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, Mario Veiga; Rosenblatt, Jose; Barroso, Luiz Augusto

    2005-06-01

    This paper discusses how the issue of supply adequacy is treated in the Brazilian power market, analyzing lessons learned from past experiences and describing the solutions that are being implemented to reconcile competition in generation with an adequate supply. The primary goal of the initial reform process is Brazil was to ensure sufficient capacity and investment to serve reliably the country's growing economy. This work discusses the difficulties that were identified in its design in terms of supply reliability and the proposals and reforms introduced by two governments to correct them and to implement a design that reconciles competition in generation with a guarantee of adequate supply. It is shown that, due to the high influence of hydroelectric power, Brazilian spot prices do not provide clear economic signals for system expansion, which in turn make bilateral contracts a key element in the market design. Another difficulty that must be addressed is the need to provide adequate expansion in an environment where there is high uncertainty on demand growth levels

  3. Agent-based simulation of a financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raberto, Marco; Cincotti, Silvano; Focardi, Sergio M.; Marchesi, Michele

    2001-10-01

    This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a given finite portfolio of assets. There is no money-creation process; the total available cash is conserved in time. In each period, agents make random buy and sell decisions that are constrained by available resources, subject to clustering, and dependent on the volatility of previous periods. The model proposed herein is able to reproduce the leptokurtic shape of the probability density of log price returns and the clustering of volatility. Implemented using extreme programming and object-oriented technology, the simulator is a flexible computational experimental facility that can find applications in both academic and industrial research projects.

  4. Retail gentrification. Staged spaces and the gourmet market model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz de Lourdes Cordero Gómez del Campo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Retail gentrification is understood as a process in which commercial activity is transformed to meet the needs of a sector of the population with higher incomes resulting in the displacement of merchants and products, seen from the implementation of the model of the gourmet market. This process, which is seen in the interest of copying the commercial formats of successful cases from gourmet markets such as the San Miguel Market in Madrid or the Borough Market in London, is linked to an offer aimed at satisfying consumption demands produced by a sector of the population that although not being equivalent concepts, different authors identify as cultural omnivores or creative class, coinciding in that these groups have a high cultural and economic capital. In the present work it is discussed how in Mexico City in the absence of the transformation of public markets into gourmet markets and with the inauguration of the Roma Market in 2014, the staging of commercial spaces labeled as gourmet markets has intensified and they are inserted in neighborhoods where they seek to generate development and links with the community, but because of their prices and the characteristics of the products they offer, they are beyond the reach of the local population.

  5. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sensfuss, F.; Ragwitz, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Genoese, M.; Moest, D. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (Germany). Inst. fuer Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion

    2007-07-01

    Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to con-sider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appear-ance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Fur-thermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instru-ments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets. (orig.)

  6. Active Desiccant-Based Preconditioning Market Analysis and Product Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, J.

    2001-01-11

    The Phase 1 report (ORNL/Sub/94-SVO44/1), completed earlier in this program, involved a comprehensive field survey and market analysis comparing various specialized outdoor air handling units. This initial investigation included conventional cooling and reheat, conventional cooling with sensible recovery, total energy recovery systems (passive desiccant technology) and various active desiccant systems. The report concluded that several markets do promise a significant sales opportunity for a Climate Changer-based active desiccant system offering. (Climate Changer is a registered trademark of Trane Company.) This initial market analysis defined the wants and needs of the end customers (design engineers and building owners), which, along with subsequent information included in this report, have been used to guide the determination of the most promising active desiccant system configurations. This Phase 2 report begins with a summary of a more thorough investigation of those specific markets identified as most promising for active desiccant systems. Table 1 estimates the annual sales potential for a cost-effective product line of active desiccant systems, such as that built from Climate Changer modules. The Product Development Strategy section describes the active desiccant system configurations chosen to best fit the needs of the marketplace while minimizing system options. Key design objectives based on market research are listed in this report for these active desiccant systems. Corresponding performance goals for the dehumidification wheel required to meet the overall system design objectives are also defined. The Performance Modeling section describes the strategy used by SEMCO to design the dehumidification wheels integrated into the prototype systems currently being tested as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Desiccant Technology Program. Actual performance data from wheel testing was used to revise the system performance and energy analysis

  7. Modelling of hydro and wind power in the regulation market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiviluoma, J.; Holttinen, H.; Meibom, P.

    2006-01-01

    The amount of required regulation capacity in the power system is affected by the wind power prediction errors. A model has been developed which can evaluate the monetary effects of prediction errors. The model can be used to evaluate (1) the regulation costs of wind power, (2) regulation market prices including effects related to the participation of power producers in the regulating power market, (3) value of accurate wind forecasts and (4) the effect of decreasing the length of the spot market clearance. This article discusses the problems related to developing a realistic model of the regulating power market including the interaction between the spot market and the regulating power market. There are several issues that make things complicated. (1) How to calculate the minimum amount of needed secondary (minute) reserves. Traditionally the Nordic TSOs have used an N-1 criteria in each country to determine the required amounts of positive secondary reserve, but as installed wind power capacity grows, it will become relevant to include the wind power prediction errors in the estimation of secondary reserves. (2) Consumption forecast errors and plant outages also contribute to activation of regulating power and should have stochastic input series besides wind power. (3) Risk premiums and transaction costs in the regulating power market are difficult to estimate as well as the effects of the possible use of market power. This is especially true in the Nordic system with the high share of hydro power, since the water value and hydrological limitations make things more complex than in a thermal system. (4) The available regulation capacity is not necessarily equal to the truly available capacity. All producers don't participate in the regulation market although in principle they could. (orig.)

  8. 18 CFR 284.505 - Market-based rates for storage providers without a market-power determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Market-based rates for storage providers without a market-power determination. 284.505 Section 284.505 Conservation of Power and... UNDER THE NATURAL GAS POLICY ACT OF 1978 AND RELATED AUTHORITIES Applications for Market-Based Rates for...

  9. Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beech, A J

    2001-11-01

    Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

  10. Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference performed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to the parameter estimation of the GARCH model. It is found that volatility determined by the GARCH model exhibits ''volatility clustering'' also observed in the real financial markets. Using volatility determined by the GARCH model we examine the mixture-of-distribution hypothesis (MDH) suggested for the asset return dynamics. We find that the returns standardized by volatility are approximately standard normal random variables. Moreover we find that the absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation. These findings are consistent with the view of the MDH for the return dynamics

  11. On Transaction-Cost Models in Continuous-Time Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Poufinas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs, built in certain recommended ways, have to be paid. Markets prove to behave in manners that resemble those of complete ones for a wide variety of transaction-cost types. The results are important, but not exclusively, for the pricing of options with transaction costs.

  12. Smart spatial incentives for market-based conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hartig, Florian; Drechsler, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Market-based instruments such as payments, auctions or tradable permits have been proposed as flexible and cost-effective instruments for biodiversity conservation on private lands. Trading the service of conservation requires one to define a metric that determines the extent to which a conserved site adds to the regional conservation objective. Yet, while markets for conservation are widely discussed and increasingly applied, little research has been conducted on explicitly accounting for sp...

  13. MARKET SIGNALS IN VALUE-BASED PRICING PREMIUMS AND DISCOUNTS

    OpenAIRE

    Feuz, Dillon M.

    1999-01-01

    There is concern in the beef industry that present marketing practices may be impending the transmission of economic signals from consumers to producers. Presently, fed cattle may be sold on a show list, pen-by-pen, or on an individual head basis, and may be priced using live weight, dressed weight, or grid or formula pricing. Market signals are more likely to reach producers if cattle are priced individually. Current value-based pricing are discussed. Three grid pricing systems are evaluated...

  14. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  15. Symmetry breaking in a bull and bear financial market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sushko, Iryna; Tramontana, Fabio; Westerhoff, Frank; Avrutin, Viktor

    2015-01-01

    We investigate bifurcation structures in the parameter space of a one-dimensional piecewise linear map with two discontinuity points. This map describes endogenous bull and bear market dynamics arising from a simple asset-pricing model. An important feature of our model is that some speculators only enter the market if the price is sufficiently distant to its fundamental value. Our analysis starts with the investigation of a particular case in which the map is symmetric with respect to the origin, associated with equal market entry thresholds in the bull and bear market. We then generalize our analysis by exploring how novel bifurcation structures may emerge when the map’s symmetry is broken.

  16. Inclusion of Switching Behaviour into Relationship Marketing Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alnaimi, Husam; Jones, Richard; Perkins, Helen

    2011-01-01

    Relationship marketing authors have attempted to develop distinct models suitable for investigating relationship marketing in different contexts. However, there is no agreement as yet about the antecedents that best capture the characteristics of the relational exchange that influences relationship...... marketing. Maintaining a long-term relationship with a customer is one of the fundamental factors determining the value that the customer provides to the company. A serious threat to achieving a long-term relationship is the customer’s switching behaviour. This study develops a theoretical model...... of relationship marketing, which includes customers’ switching behaviour (switchers and stayers), as a vital construct to understand the relationship development process between customers and service providers. Also, hypotheses to specify the association between the underlying models’ constructs were presented...

  17. The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinemann, Ronald

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

  18. Comparing Neural Networks and ARMA Models in Artificial Stock Market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krtek, Jiří; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 53-65 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : neural networks * vector ARMA * artificial market Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/krtek-comparing neural networks and arma models in artificial stock market.pdf

  19. Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sunghae Jun

    2011-01-01

    Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning) strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy m...

  20. STOCK Market Differences in Correlation-Based Weighted Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, Janghyuk; Lee, Junghoon; Chang, Woojin

    We examined the sector dynamics of Korean stock market in relation to the market volatility. The daily price data of 360 stocks for 5019 trading days (from January, 1990 to August, 2008) in Korean stock market are used. We performed the weighted network analysis and employed four measures: the average, the variance, the intensity, and the coherence of network weights (absolute values of stock return correlations) to investigate the network structure of Korean stock market. We performed regression analysis using the four measures in the seven major industry sectors and the market (seven sectors combined). We found that the average, the intensity, and the coherence of sector (subnetwork) weights increase as market becomes volatile. Except for the "Financials" sector, the variance of sector weights also grows as market volatility increases. Based on the four measures, we can categorize "Financials," "Information Technology" and "Industrials" sectors into one group, and "Materials" and "Consumer Discretionary" sectors into another group. We investigated the distributions of intrasector and intersector weights for each sector and found the differences in "Financials" sector are most distinct.