WorldWideScience

Sample records for macroeconomic growth

  1. Macroeconomic policy, growth, and biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawn, Philip

    2008-12-01

    To successfully achieve biodiversity conservation, the amount of ecosystem structure available for economic production must be determined by, and subject to, conservation needs. As such, the scale of economic systems must remain within the limits imposed by the need to preserve critical ecosystems and the regenerative and waste assimilative capacities of the ecosphere. These limits are determined by biophysical criteria, yet macroeconomics involves the use of economic instruments designed to meet economic criteria that have no capacity to achieve biophysically based targets. Macroeconomic policy cannot, therefore, directly solve the biodiversity erosion crisis. Nevertheless, good macroeconomic policy is still important given that bad macroeconomy policy is likely to reduce human well-being and increase the likelihood of social upheaval that could undermine conservation efforts.

  2. Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chirwa Themba G.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper conducts a qualitative narrative appraisal of the existing empirical literature on the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in developing and developed countries. Much as other empirical studies have investigated the determinants of economic growth using various econometric methods, the majority of these studies have not distinguished what drives or hinders economic growth in developing or developed countries. The study finds that the determinants of economic growth are different when this distinction is used. It reveals that in developing countries the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth include foreign aid, foreign direct investment, fiscal policy, investment, trade, human capital development, demographics, monetary policy, natural resources, reforms and geographic, regional, political and financial factors. In developed countries, the study reveals that the key macroeconomic determinants that are associated with economic growth include physical capital, fiscal policy, human capital, trade, demographics, monetary policy and financial and technological factors.

  3. Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

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    Mikhail I. Geraskin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

  4. Macroeconomic Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Zambia

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    Themba Chirwa

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the role that government policies and macroeconomic reforms played in influencing economic growth in Zambia during the period 1964-2013. The study identifies two economic systems that guided the implementation of policies and reforms in Zambia. The first relates to a command-driven economy, where economic growth patterns were influenced by nationalist ideologies and administrative controls. The second relates to a market-driven economy where economic growth patterns were influenced by market-oriented fundamentals with some degree of administrative controls. The study concludes that economic policies and reforms were instrumental in influencing the performance of major macroeconomic drivers of economic growth in Zambia such as the accumulation of physical capital, human capital development, international trade, real exchange rate determination and inflation.

  5. Globalisation, trade, and growth: A macroeconomic perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Bräuninger, Michael; Vöpel, Henning

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of economic theory, what effects can globalisation be expected to have on trade and growth? Does the empirical evidence support this? What developments will the next phase of globalisation bring?

  6. SMEs Growth in the Czech Republic: Some Macroeconomic Perspectives

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    Christian Nedu Osakwe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium enterprises (SMEs are seen as a vehicle for employment generation, wealth creation, economic growth and development in countries that have a sound investment climate. SMEs, account for approximately one-third of GDP, over 50% of the value added, 99% of the share of total registered enterprises, and represent 60% of total employment in the Czech Republic. In the light of this background, the paper explores the influence of some macroeconomic variables on SMEs growth in the Czech Republic for the period 1995–2013. In order to assess the impacts of these critical macroeconomic variables (e.g., rate of unemployment, economic growth, credit provided by the financial sector on SMEs growth, we employed an econometric technique. Our findings suggest a concave relationship between unemployment and SMEs growth in the Czech Republic. More precisely, it signifies that beyond a turning point, unemployment is likely to slow down SMEs growth in the country. Our results further hint at a positive relationship between economic growth and SMEs growth. However, our empirical estimates showed an insignificant relationship between domestic credit provided by the financial sector and SMEs growth in the country. The government of the Czech Republic should continue to provide an enabling investment climate and support for bolstering a sustainable SMEs development within the country. Similar to the extant literature, we have also implored the Czech government to do more with regard to the provision of easier access and affordable credits/loans to SMEs. We have also called for the reduction of bureaucratic bottlenecks that might have to do with SMEs legislations in the country.

  7. Scaling of Growth Rate Volatility for Six Macroeconomic Variables

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    Boris Podobnik

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We study the annual growth rates of six macroeconomic variables: public debt, public health expenditures, exports of goods, government consumption expenditures, total exports of goods and services, and total imports of goods and services. For each variable, we find (i that the distribution of the growth rate residuals approximately follows a double exponential (Laplace distribution and (ii that the standard deviation of growth rate residuals scales according to the size of the variable as a power law, with a scaling exponent similar to the scaling exponent found for GDP [Economics Letters 60, 335 (1998]. We hypothesise that the volatility scaling we find for these GDP constituents causes the volatility scaling found in GDP data.

  8. Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, N. J.; Ribeiro, Marcelo B.

    2013-05-01

    This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin’s (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the population (˜99%), with the Pareto power law, representing the tiny richest part (˜1%). In line with Goodwin’s original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of economic systems.

  9. Transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth -- Contemporary evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D.J.

    1994-12-31

    This paper presents international and temporal extensions of evidence for a theory developed by the author concerning the interaction of transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth. The period 1970 to the present is examined for the nations of Japan, the US, and Europe (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom collectively). An addition to the abstract logic supporting the general arguments of the theory is also presented. The theory has been developed concerning the role of significant transportation technology transitions as a cause of significant macroeconomic declines in nations for which the manufacture of transportation vehicles (ships, locomotives, and automobiles) is a dominant economic activity. The theory offers an explanation for periods of pronounced multiyear decline in economic growth rate--sometimes called depressions and sometimes called stagnations. One purpose of this paper is to explore whether or not Japan and Europe have each recently experienced a multiyear event of this type. In the theory and the evidence presented for it, environmental regulation of transportation vehicles has been shown to be an initiating cause of significant technical change, with sharp, sustained fuel price increases being a second frequent initiating cause. These causes of significant technical change, and their possible consequences, are potentially important considerations for those proposing policies to deal with global warming, since both fuel economy regulation and fuel price increases have been recommended by policy analysts as means to reduce transportation`s contribution to global warming. The theory has been offered and supported by publications developing mathematical models and examining US historical evidence consistent with the theory.

  10. The Macroeconomic Impact of Ebola Virus Disease (Evd: A Contribution to the Empirics of Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obukohwo Oba Efayena

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper addressed the formulation of a macro model to capture the macroeconomic impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD. Previous studies has adopted various models such as the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model, endogenous model and the LINKAGE model, but there is dire need to generate a step-by-step model which will comprehensively capture how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD impacts on macroeconomic variables. Adopting the traditional neoclassical growth model, the model aggregated the various macroeconomic variables as well as captured the epidemic’s strain on each of these variables. The paper also empirically shows that the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has direct, indirect and deferred indirect cost implications for the economy. Using case studies of countries in Africa, the study evaluated how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has affected the macroeconomic status of selected economies. The findings imply that there is dire need to control the spread of the deadly plague. The paper contribute immensely to empirical studies in the field of macroeconomics.

  11. Macroeconomic Consequences of Outsourcing. An Analysis of Growth, Welfare and Product Variety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, H.L.F.

    1998-01-01

    Outsourcing of non-core activities by firms is nowadays a common business strategy. This paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing a firms’ incentive to follow such a strategy and its consequences for macroeconomic variables like growth and product variety. We divide production activities

  12. Growth Dynamics in South Africa: Key Macroeconomic Drivers and Policy Challenges

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    Themba G. Chirwa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine which key factors at the macroeconomic level are associated with the economic growth performance of the South African economy. These drivers have been identified by assessing the economic events that occurred during the period 1960-2013. During this period, the South African economy went through two economic and political systems: an apartheid system that covered the period 1948-1993; and a democratic system from 1994 to date. Regardless of the economic system implemented, we find the accumulation of physical capital, human capital development, international trade, real exchange rate growth, and inflation as the most significant macroeconomic drivers of economic growth in South Africa. We also find that the weak performance of the South African economy in recent years has been grossly affected by declining trends in the accumulation of capital stock, low quantities and quality of human capital, worsening balance of payments position, and real exchange rate instability.

  13. The impact of science on economic growth and its cycles the mathematical dynamics determined by the basic macroeconomic facts

    CERN Document Server

    Aulin, Arvid

    1998-01-01

    The author shows that the enormous gap between theory and facts in modern macroeconomics can only be eliminated by nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics with the following special characteristics: First of all, only certain group-theoretical invariants generate the correct growth cycles with irregularly varying lengths, not any stochastic process as usually applied for this purpose. Furthermore, a special extended value function and generalized human capital are needed for a correct representation of scientific and technological innovation. Finally, the correct nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics are not reducible to microeconomics, for both of the above mentioned reasons.

  14. An Analysis of Economic Growth, Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Imbalances in the European Union

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    Gheorghe Hurduzeu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Taking into consideration the determinants of the economic crisis and of the sovereign debt crisis, we aim to analyze the dynamics of the European economies and discuss changes related to macroeconomic imbalances, as highlighted by the recent crises as an important factor of the unfavorable dynamics registered during the last years. In this respect we considered both internal and external imbalances, as specified in the macroeconomic imbalance procedure that was implemented for the European Union member states since 2012, as a response to the crises that affected all open economies of the world. The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of economic imbalances in the European Union and to determine their influence on economic growth.

  15. Macroeconomics in develpoing countries

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    Deepak Nayyar

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available This essay analyzes the differences between the economies of industrialized countriesand developing countries, which have important implications for macroeconomics interms of theory and policy. It considers the differences in macroeconomic objectives andexamines why the reach of macroeconomic policies is different in the two sets ofcountries. It argues that the distinction between short-run macroeconomic models andlong-term growth models is not quite appropriate for developing countries, wheremacroeconomic constraints on growth straddle time horizons and short-term policieshave long-term consequences. The essential hypothesis is that the nature of relationshipsand the direction of causation in macroeconomics, which shape analysis, diagnosis andprescription, depend on the institutional setting and not the analytical structure of models.And even if some laws of economics are universal, the functioning of economies can bemarkedly different. Therefore, economic theory and policy analysis should recognize,rather than ignore, such myriad differences.

  16. Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance of Selected Asian Countries. An Econometric Analysis of China Economic Growth and Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasret Benar Balcioglu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the key macroeconomics indicators for the selected countries: China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Rep. and India and also makes an econometric analysis for China for the period 1961-2007. These countries are chosen on the basis of comparability of data and time without measurement errors. This study also investigates six hypotheses considering the impact of several key macroeconomic variables such as domestic saving rate, domestic investment rate, and volatility of savings, volatility of inflation, growth rate of exports and growth rate of real GNP. By using suitable statistical and econometric tests, this paper finds that prevailing performance of China depends on its superior rates of domestic saving and exports. Policies are also suggested from the differentials between the economic performances of China and other chosen Asian countries.

  17. Applied Macroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijman, W.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    This book contains a course in applied macroeconomics. Macroeconomic theory is applied to real world cases. Students are expected to compute model results with the help of a spreadsheet program. To that end the book also contains descriptions of the spreadsheet applications used, such as linear

  18. Political macroeconomics

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    Marin Dinu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available „Macroeconomics contaminates its principles in subordination to the societal contingent, in a way, creating states of coerced generality by contextualising the truth and circumstantiating the solutions through the adjustment of hypotheses.”

  19. Political macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Dinu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Macroeconomics contaminates its principles in subordination to the societal contingent, in a way, creating states of coerced generality by contextualising the truth and circumstantiating the solutions through the adjustment of hypotheses.

  20. Interactive Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Guilmi, Corrado; Gallegati, Mauro; Landini, Simone

    2017-04-01

    Preface; List of tables; List of figures, 1. Introduction; Part I. Methodological Notes and Tools: 2. The state space notion; 3. The master equation; Part II. Applications to HIA Based Models: 4. Financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics I: heterogeneity and interaction; 5. Financial fragility and macroeconomic Dynamics II: learning; Part III. Conclusions: 6. Conclusive remarks; Part IV. Appendices and Complements: Appendix A: Complements to Chapter 3; Appendix B: Solving the ME to solve the ABM; Appendix C: Specifying transition rates; Index.

  1. Influence of macro-economic growth, CAP reforms and biofuel policy on the Polish agri-food sector in 2007–2020

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tabeau, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the possible development scenario of the Polish agricultural sector till 2020. It also assesses the impact of macroeconomic growth, CAP reforms and worldwide policies towards the agriculture on this development. The scenario is build using an extended version of the Global Trade

  2. Macroeconomic stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    It is demonstrated that full employment and sustainable development not necessarily are conflicting goals. On the other hand macroeconomic stability cannot be obtained without a deliberate labour sharing policy and a shift in the composition of private consumption away from traditional material...

  3. Understanding the null-to-small association between increased macroeconomic growth and reducing child undernutrition in India: role of development expenditures and poverty alleviation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe, William; Rajaram, Ramaprasad; Subramanian, S V

    2016-05-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that macroeconomic growth in India is not correlated with any substantial reductions in the prevalence of child undernutrition over time. This study investigates the two commonly hypothesized pathways through which macroeconomic growth is expected to reduce child undernutrition: (1) an increase in public developmental expenditure and (2) a reduction in aggregate income-poverty levels. For the anthropometric data on children, we draw on the data from two cross-sectional waves of National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992-1993 and 2005-2006, while the data for per capita net state domestic product and per capita public spending on developmental expenditure and headcount ratio of poverty were obtained from the Reserve Bank of India and the Government of India expert committee reports. We find that between 1992-1993 and 2005-2006, state-level macroeconomic growth was not associated with any substantial increases in public development expenditure or substantial reductions in poverty at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the association between changes in public development expenditure or aggregate poverty and changes in undernutrition was small. In summary, it appears that the inability of macroeconomic growth to translate into reductions in child undernutrition in India is likely a consequence of the macroeconomic growth not translating into substantial investments in development expenditure that could matter for children's nutritional status and neither did it substantially improve incomes of the poor, a group where undernutrition is also the highest. The findings here build a case to advocate a 'support-led' strategy for reducing undernutrition rather than simply relying on a 'growth-mediated' strategy. Key messages Increases in macroeconomic growth have not been accompanied by substantial increases in public developmental spending or reduction in aggregate poverty headcount ratio in India. Association between increases in public

  4. Understanding the null‐to‐small association between increased macroeconomic growth and reducing child undernutrition in India: role of development expenditures and poverty alleviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe, William; Rajaram, Ramaprasad

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Empirical evidence suggests that macroeconomic growth in India is not correlated with any substantial reductions in the prevalence of child undernutrition over time. This study investigates the two commonly hypothesized pathways through which macroeconomic growth is expected to reduce child undernutrition: (1) an increase in public developmental expenditure and (2) a reduction in aggregate income‐poverty levels. For the anthropometric data on children, we draw on the data from two cross‐sectional waves of National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992–1993 and 2005–2006, while the data for per capita net state domestic product and per capita public spending on developmental expenditure and headcount ratio of poverty were obtained from the Reserve Bank of India and the Government of India expert committee reports. We find that between 1992–1993 and 2005–2006, state‐level macroeconomic growth was not associated with any substantial increases in public development expenditure or substantial reductions in poverty at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the association between changes in public development expenditure or aggregate poverty and changes in undernutrition was small. In summary, it appears that the inability of macroeconomic growth to translate into reductions in child undernutrition in India is likely a consequence of the macroeconomic growth not translating into substantial investments in development expenditure that could matter for children's nutritional status and neither did it substantially improve incomes of the poor, a group where undernutrition is also the highest. The findings here build a case to advocate a ‘support‐led’ strategy for reducing undernutrition rather than simply relying on a ‘growth‐mediated’ strategy. Key messages Increases in macroeconomic growth have not been accompanied by substantial increases in public developmental spending or reduction in aggregate poverty headcount ratio in India

  5. Rethinking macroeconomic policies for development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Nayyar

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The global economic crisis has created an opportunity to rethink macroeconomics for development. Such rethinking is both necessary and desirable. It is essential to redefine macroeconomic objectives so that the emphasis is on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth instead of the focus on price stability alone. It is just as important to rethink macroeconomic policies which cannot simply be used for the management of inflation and the elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, since fiscal and monetary policies are powerful and versatile instruments in the pursuit of development objectives. In doing so, it is essential to the overcome the constraints embedded in orthodox economic thinking and recognize the constraints implicit in the politics of ideology and interests.

  6. The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Implications for Teaching Intermediate Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froyen, Richard T.

    1996-01-01

    Traces the development of macroeconomic theory from John Maynard Keynes to modern endogenous growth theory. Maintains that a combination of interest in growth theory and related policy questions will play a prominent role in macroeconomics in the future. Recommends narrowing the gap between graduate school and undergraduate economics instruction.…

  7. [Macroeconomic analysis: agro-nutritional dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coussy, J

    1992-01-01

    This reflection on the renewed prominence of macroeconomic analysis in the area of food and agriculture, especially in Africa, assesses the history, limitations, and potential of the discipline as applied in formulation of agricultural policy. It begins by tracing the development and history of macroeconomic analysis from the emergence of liberal political economy in the late 18th century. The evolution of macroeconomic analysis applied to food and agriculture has not been linear; periods of eclipse have alternated with periods of influence. Most recently, in the 1960s, macroeconomic analysis was important in attempts to understand the place of agriculture in national economies, but the misuse of its vocabulary to justify a number of controversial policy actions created lasting distrust. The questions addressed by macroeconomic analysis and the potential contributions of its use in the 1960s are discussed, followed by an analysis of the reasons for renewed attention to the macroeconomic viewpoint beginning with the balance of payments crisis of the 1980s. The recent growth of institutional demand for macroeconomic analysis and policy has been accompanied by misunderstanding and inflated expectations as to its usefulness, while suspicions linger. The pressures encouraging broadened use of macroeconomic analysis are identified, including the growing influence of purely macroeconomic processes such as urbanization, the demographic transition, and the debt crisis; the intensifying of national and international market constraints affecting food and agriculture; and the legitimation of macroeconomic terminology by the large international organizations. Misapplications of macroeconomic analysis are identified, such as an erroneous equating of "macroeconomy" with "global economy". The lack of consensus among macroeconomic theorists about policies ostensibly based on macroeconomic analysis is discussed, as is the sometimes strained relationship between them and specialists

  8. Studying macroeconomic indicators as powerful ideas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mügge, D.

    2016-01-01

    Macroeconomic indicators - especially inflation, gross domestic product growth, public deficits and unemployment - stand central in economic governance. Policy-makers use them to assess their economies’ health. Citizens evaluate politicians’ performance using them as yardsticks. But these indicators

  9. Macroeconomics in crisis and macroeconomics in recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Roncaglia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The financial and economic crisis brings to a reconsideration of macroeconomics: as it happened in the past, after the Great Crash of 1929 as well as after the Second World War and after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and the subsequent oil crisis. A brief critical survey of mainstream macroeconomics (the neoclassical synthesis and its variants, and its criticisms on the side of Keynesians and Sraffians is followed by a brief survey of the elements of alternative macroeconomic analysis developed by Keynes and Kalecki, Minsky and Sylos Labini, and others.

  10. Macroeconomic aspects of financial liberalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirdala Rajmund

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The positive and the negative macroeconomic aspects of the financial liberalization for the developing and emerging economies are well described in the present literature. But it is not easy to clearly summarize the final effects of the financial integration on the certain country. For instance the argument about the growth benefits of the capital account liberalization is likely to be inadequate considering the financial crises in the emerging markets at the end of the last century. On the other hand, many authors (especially in the financial literature report that the equity market liberalizations help to significantly boost the economic growth. There are also some examples on the microeconomic level (firm level or industry level when the international financial integration brings certain benefits to the integrated enterprises and the capital flows restriction leads to the distortionary effects. In the paper we analyze the macroeconomic effects of the capital flows liberalization.

  11. The Macroeconomics of Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addison, Tony; Morrissey, Oliver; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This Special Issue explores macroeconomic effects of aid from various perspectives through a blend of studies, both conceptual and empirical in nature. The overall aim is to enhance the understanding of the macroeconomic dimensions of aid in the policy and research communities, and to inspire...

  12. Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Bennett T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

  13. Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Anesti, Nikoleta

    2011-01-01

    This thesis consists of four essays in empirical macroeconomics. What Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? A VAR-Based Comparative Analysis The literature using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on the qualitative and quantitative response of key macroeconomic variables. We find that controlling for differences in specification of the reduced-form model, all identification approaches used in the literature yield simi...

  14. Three Essays on Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doda, Lider Baran

    This dissertation consists of three independent essays in macroeconomics. The first essay studies the transition to a low carbon economy using an extension of the neoclassical growth model featuring endogenous energy efficiency, exhaustible energy and explicit climate-economy interaction. I derive the properties of the laissez faire equilibrium and compare them to the optimal allocations of a social planner who internalizes the climate change externality. Three main results emerge. First, the exhaustibility of energy generates strong market based incentives to improve energy efficiency and reduce CO 2 emissions without any government intervention. Second, the market and optimal allocations are substantially different suggesting a role for the government. Third, high and persistent taxes are required to implement the optimal allocations as a competitive equilibrium with taxes. The second essay focuses on coal fired power plants (CFPP) - one of the largest sources of CO2 emissions globally - and their generation efficiency using a macroeconomic model with an embedded CFPP sector. A key feature of the model is the endogenous choice of production technologies which differ in their energy efficiency. After establishing four empirical facts about the CFPP sector, I analyze the long run quantitative effects of energy taxes. Using the calibrated model, I find that sector-specific coal taxes have large effects on generation efficiency by inducing the use of more efficient technologies. Moreover, such taxes achieve large CO2 emissions reductions with relatively small effects on consumption and output. The final essay studies the procyclicality of fiscal policy in developing countries, which is a well-documented empirical observation seemingly at odds with Neoclassical and Keynesian policy prescriptions. I examine this issue by solving the optimal fiscal policy problem of a small open economy government when the interest rates on external debt are endogenous. Given an

  15. Macroeconomic policies for development in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Ffrench-Davis

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the link between the macroeconomic environment and development (economic growth with equity. The aim of the analysis is to compare two alternative approaches to interpreting and implementing macroeconomics. The first to come under analysis is the financialist or neoliberal approach, which places the emphasis on macroeconomic balance, giving particular weight to the two cornerstones of low inflation and control of the fiscal budget, together with general openness of the capital account. The second approach –which we will call the “alternative”– is the productivist approach, which places the emphasis on a comprehensive group of macroeconomic balances: or rather, in addition to low inflation and fiscal responsibility, it involves a real balanced economy; that is to say, an aggregate demand that is consistent with the economy’s productive capacity and with a sustainable external balance. This second approach involves, firstly, a high coefficient of the use of productive factors (capital and work while, secondly, it attempts to prevent vulnerability in front of costly crises of external origin. Finally, the author argues that the broadest macroeconomic objectives demand more and better political instruments in the context of the globalisation of financial volatility.

  16. Macroeconomic Issues in Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjertholm, Peter; Laursen, Jytte; White, Howard

    foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,......foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,...

  17. Emergent Macroeconomics An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Palestrini, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.

  18. ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT IS THE BASIS OF MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION AND SUSTAINABILITY OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Ya. Kazhuro

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available When the global community entered in the XXI century world emerging economy is more clearly considered as post-industrial, where a leading sector of the economy in the GDP production is not agriculture and not even industry but services. The main productive resource in such circumstances is not natural and productive capital but human capital, which is represented by storage of knowledge and skills accumulated by a person in the process of training and previous employment. Value of this capital is directly dependent on the level of education both general and professional. Human intellect becomes a main factor of production and professional. If the level is higher it means that such person can perform more valuable types of work for expand wealth of the country and it is transformed into intellectual capital. Consequently, a special market is formed that is a market of intellectual capital. An offer in this market is represented by labor with a high level of intellectuality and innovativeness and it has, in its turn, high market value. Well-handled components of human capital contribute to scientific-technical and social progress of the society, its sustainable economic development as the main types of final products unlike with previous stages of development are information and knowledge and the main factor of economic growth is productivity of mental labor workers. It is human capital that is one of the main factors ensuring transition to V and VI technological paradigms under current conditions. These paradigms are underlying a solid foundation for formation of new intellectual and information society. New knowledge and information technologies are making a breakthrough not only in the direct production of commodities but in the non-manufacturing sector as well (education, health, trade, finance etc..

  19. Three Essays in Macroeconomics.

    OpenAIRE

    SÁNCHEZ-MARTÍNEZ, Miguel

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation studies three main topics in macroeconomics: the impact of labor market frictions on labor supply and income inequality, the impact of goods market frictions on individuals' optimization decisions, and the housing market in the business cycle. In chapter one, I briefly review the research of this dissertation. Chapter two develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with progressive taxation, labor market search and heterogeneous households to study the impact of tax refor...

  20. Is macroeconomic announcement news priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Goeij, Peter; Hu, Jiehui; Werker, Bas

    2016-01-01

    We test whether news contained in macroeconomic announcements (MEAs) is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. When including news on a set of widely followed individual macroeconomic fundamentals in the cross-section of stock returns, estimates of their prices of risk are consistent with the

  1. Nonlinearities in Behavioral Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Orlando

    2017-07-01

    This article undertakes a journey across the literature on behavioral macroeconomics, with attention concentrated on the nonlinearities that the behavioral approach typically suggests or implies. The emphasis is placed on thinking the macro economy as a living organism, composed of many interacting parts, each one having a will of its own, which is in sharp contrast with the mechanism of the orthodox view (well represented by the neoclassical or new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - DSGE - model). The paper advocates that a thorough understanding of individual behavior in collective contexts is the only possible avenue to further explore macroeconomic phenomena and the often observed 'anomalies' that the benchmark DSGE macro framework is unable to explain or justify. After a reflection on the role of behavioral traits as a fundamental component of a new way of thinking the economy, the article proceeds with a debate on some of the most relevant frameworks in the literature that somehow link macro behavior and nonlinearities; covered subjects include macro models with disequilibrium rules, agent-based models that highlight interaction and complexity, evolutionary switching frameworks, and inattention based decision problems. These subjects have, as a fundamental point in common, the use of behavioral elements to transform existing interpretations of the economic reality, making it more evident how irregular fluctuations emerge and unfold on the aggregate.

  2. Adjustment of macroeconomic imbalances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Barbulescu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The global financial and economic crisis was the factor that triggered the adjustment of macroeconomic imbalances accumulated in Romania. The current account deficit and budget deficit were two major structural imbalances that have created a high vulnerability for the economy and explained the extent of economic contraction in Romania during the economic crisis. This article identifies the main causes that lead to the need for fiscal adjustment both in the EU and in Romania, as well as main effects of adjustments in respect of their experience in recent years. The article deals with this topic, because the current topical debate in the field of fiscal adjustments implemented both in the EU and our country, and their need for economic activity aimed at economic recovery.

  3. Complementarities and Macroeconomics: Poisson Games

    OpenAIRE

    Miltiadis Makris

    2006-01-01

    In many situations in macroeconomics strategic complementarities arise, and agents face a coordination problem. An important issue, from both a theoretical and a policy perspective, is equilibrium uniqueness. We contribute to this literature by focusing on the macroeconomic aspect of the problem: the number of potential innovators, speculators e.t.c. is large. In particular, we follow Myerson (1998, 2000) that in large games “a more realistic model should admit some uncertainty about the numb...

  4. Asymmetric information and macroeconomic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Raymond J.; Aoki, Masanao; Roy Frieden, B.

    2010-09-01

    We show how macroeconomic dynamics can be derived from asymmetric information. As an illustration of the utility of this approach we derive the equilibrium density, non-equilibrium densities and the equation of motion for the response to a demand shock for productivity in a simple economy. Novel consequences of this approach include a natural incorporation of time dependence into macroeconomics and a common information-theoretic basis for economics and other fields seeking to link micro-dynamics and macro-observables.

  5. Macroeconomic impact of HIV: the need for better modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Erik; Haacker, Markus; Ventelou, Bruno; Greener, Robert

    2010-05-01

    To critically evaluate the recent literature on macroeconomic repercussions of the HIV pandemic and the response to it. The review focuses on the impacts of HIV through both its health consequences and its impact on the accumulation of human capital. So far, most studies have found a moderate impact of the HIV epidemic on macroeconomic growth. However, recent studies tend to emphasize the fact that HIV undermines human capital and implies a long-term detriment for economic development. Availability of data from Demographic and Health Surveys offers opportunities for better understanding the relationship between the HIV epidemic and economic growth through pathways linking its microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts. The macroeconomic impact of HIV observed so far appears moderate. Our analysis of recent literature, however, points out three important issues that may have been previously underestimated. First, the most important effects may occur in the longer run, through changes in the accumulation of human capital. Second, aggregate impact often masks an unequal impact among different economic groups. Third, the empirical evidence on which current macroeconomic models are based remains weak, in particular in the way it takes into account responses to HIV at the households' level. Microsimulation models and the recently increasing availability of robust datasets at households' level offer promising opportunities to address these issues.

  6. CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCES - AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coroiu Sorina

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The empirical evidence upon the macroeconomic performances of the independent central banks do not always have been successfully. In some cases, the consistency of the indices based on the interpretation of central banks statues used for measuring the degree of central bank independence is controversial, particularly for some of the indices. Moreover, the correlations between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance variables are not always confirmed, the causal relationship between central bank independence and inflation is controversial, and the higher disinflation costs, as a result of a higher sacrifice ratio correlated with the degree of independence is controversial, too. The effects of central bank independence upon macroeconomic performances focalized upon the empirical evidence of inflation, output or economic grouth and the disinflation costs. This is due to the lack of studies vis - vis of relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performances regarding some variables like interest rates and budgetary deficits. Specialists consider inflation and output as the main determinats of the social welfare. The economic literature regarding this fact suggests that the central bank is seen as a free lunch institution. This hypothesis sustains that independent central banks will have social benefits in terms of lower inflation rates, but without any costs in terms of the real macroeconomic performances as a higher output volatility or a lower economic growth. In this article we provide a qualitative analyses regarding the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performances. For this purpose the authors used the new index for measuring central bank independence and inflation targeting based on three pillars: political and legal central bank independence, central bank governance and conduct of monetary policy, central bank transparency and accountability. For estimating the

  7. [Biotechnology's macroeconomic impact].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dones Tacero, Milagros; Pérez García, Julián; San Román, Antonio Pulido

    2008-12-01

    This paper tries to yield an economic valuation of biotechnological activities in terms of aggregated production and employment. This valuation goes beyond direct estimation and includes the indirect effects derived from sectorial linkages between biotechnological activities and the rest of economic system. To deal with the proposed target several sources of data have been used, including official data from National Statistical Office (INE) such us national accounts, input-output tables, and innovation surveys, as well as, firms' level balance sheets and income statements and also specific information about research projects compiled by Genoma Spain Foundation. Methodological approach is based on the estimation of a new input-output table which includes the biotechnological activities as a specific branch. This table offers both the direct impact of these activities and the main parameters to obtain the induced effects over the rest of the economic system. According to the most updated available figures, biotechnological activities would have directly generated almost 1,600 millions of euros in 2005, and they would be employed more than 9,000 workers. But if we take into account the full linkages with the rest of the system, the macroeconomic impact of Biotechnological activities would reach around 5,000 millions euros in production terms (0.6% of total GDP) and would be responsible, directly or indirectly, of more than 44,000 employments.

  8. Aid Policy and the Macroeconomic Management of Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addison, Tony; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    This is an introduction to the UNU-WIDER special issue of World Development on aid policy and the macroeconomic management of aid. We provide an overview of the 10 studies, grouping them under three sub-themes: the aid–growth relationship; the supply-side of aid (including its level, volatility......, and coordination of donors); and the macroeconomic framework around aid. The studies in the special issue demonstrate the centrality of research methodology, the importance of disaggregation, and the need to account for country-specific situations and problems. This introduction concludes that the sometimes “over...

  9. Macroeconomic Adjustment to the Lehman Shock in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazumi Asako

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we overview the macroeconomic adjustment to the Lehman shock in Japan. After retrospecting the Japanese economy since the Plaza Accord which led Japan to the bubble economy and the 'lost decade' we explain the business cycles in Japan and show related macroeconomic indicators since as early as the 1980s. Then we trace the macroeconomic responses of the Japanese economy to the Lehman shock by selectively looking at such aspects as the contribution of GDP growth by expenditure components, from peak to trough of the CI(composite index, production and inventory adjustment, and employment adjustment. We also supplement our analyses by observing additional factors including export, investment, consumption, exchange rate, and the stock market. The roles played by policy measures and expectations formation are also emphasized to explain why and how the Japanese economy did not develop as forecasted against the 'once in a hundred years' crisis.

  10. MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN GHANA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Bekoe

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In spite of the progress made in economic performance over the years, the Ghanaian economy continues to be bedevilled by a host of constraints. Among these constraints are low levels of savings and investments which have raised serious concerns among economists and policy makers with respect to the sustainability of the achievements attained so far. This study attempts to investigate empirically the link between investments and uncertainty using dataset from Ghana covering the period 1975 to 2008. In the empirical analysis, the paper aims at separating ordinary variability from uncertainty by the construction of measures of uncertainty for some key macroeconomic indicators and using them to assess their impact on investment behaviour within an econometric framework including other acceptable determinants of investment. The Phillip-Hansen cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between private investment, standard determinants of investment, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Result from the study shows that on the whole the investment-uncertainty link reveals a significant negative effect of all macroeconomic uncertainty indicator variables on private investment with the exception of real exchange rate volatility. The values for price of capital uncertainty, real GDP growth uncertainty, and terms of trade uncertainty are large in absolute terms. The regression result further reveals that private investment displays important inertia and shows slow adjustment process towards long-run equilibrium. Lastly, the summary measure of macroeconomic uncertainty which encompasses the first principal components of the conditional variances of the five macroeconomic variables shows a consistent indirect effect on private investment. Generally we found macroeconomic uncertainties to be more detrimental to private investment growth in the long-run relative to the short-run.

  11. Credit Card Outstanding Balance and Non-Performing Loans in Malaysia : Macroeconomic Determinants and Regulatory Interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Chia, Wai Leng

    2016-01-01

    The credit card debt growth is paradoxical from macroeconomics perspective because it acts simultaneously as stimulus for economic growth and debt crisis. Hence, it is essential to understand the fundamental of household borrowing decision and its mediating market. This led the dissertation back to the fundamental question on understanding the drivers behind the accumulation of debts and the cause of delinquency taking into consideration the significant influence of macroeconomic factors and ...

  12. Engendering macroeconomic policies | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-28

    Jan 28, 2011 ... This international network of economists was formed in 1994 for the purpose of promoting research, teaching, policymaking, and advocacy on gender-equitable approaches to macroeconomics, .... The members of the network come from many different countries, so it's a tremendous learning opportunity.

  13. The macroeconomic consequences of downsizing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, H.L.F.; van Schaik, A.B.T.M.

    2002-01-01

    The recession in the 1980s followed by the worldwide decrease in transportation and communication costs has triggered a process of downsizing. The macroeconomic consequences of this process are only weakly understood. The model developed in this paper associates downsizing with trade between

  14. Essays in Education and Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrington, Christopher M.

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on education and macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes whether public education financing systems can account for large differences among developed countries in earnings inequality and intergenerational earnings persistence. I first document facts about public education in the U.S. and Norway, which…

  15. ABOUT MACROECONOMIC PURPOSE OF THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE BALANCED MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Vladimirov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is a theoretical substantiation of the possibility of DOS reaches the maximum possible public efficiencies of government spending, investments and taxes in perfect condition coordination bath open economic system. The proposed model can always bring in the ideal case («zero-loss" public effectively scope of public expenditure and investment to the maximum possible rate of economic growth, that allows you to substantiate the main directions of the relevant macroeconomic (fiscal, tax and budget policy.

  16. Macroeconomic conditions and opioid abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Alex; Ruhm, Christopher J; Simon, Kosali

    2017-12-01

    We examine how deaths and emergency department (ED) visits related to use of opioid analgesics (opioids) and other drugs vary with macroeconomic conditions. As the county unemployment rate increases by one percentage point, the opioid death rate per 100,000 rises by 0.19 (3.6%) and the opioid overdose ED visit rate per 100,000 increases by 0.95 (7.0%). Macroeconomic shocks also increase the overall drug death rate, but this increase is driven by rising opioid deaths. Our findings hold when performing a state-level analysis, rather than county-level; are primarily driven by adverse events among whites; and are stable across time periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Flavin, Thomas; M R Wickens

    2003-01-01

    We develop a tactical asset allocation strategy that incorporates the effects of macroeconomic variables. The joint distribution of financial asset returns and the macroeconomic variables is modelled using a VAR with a multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) error structure. As a result, the portfolio frontier is time varying and subject to contagion from the macroeconomic variable. Optimal asset allocation requires that this be taken into account. We illustrate how to do this using three ri...

  18. The impact of macroeconomic variables on SMEs in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halim, F. A.; Malim, M. R.; Derasit, Z.; Rani, R. M.; Rashid, S. S.

    2017-09-01

    Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia have gained a prominent role as the significant contributor to the economic growth. However, the world nowadays is heading towards economic downturn. The stability of macroeconomic variables promotes profitability of SMEs which propels them to a stage where they can access financing for sustaining growth. Therefore, it is apparent that the behaviour of the macroeconomic variables plays a major part in determining the nation’s backbone in surviving the economic downturn. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic variables on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia using multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that the exchange rate has a small positive impact on SME GDP growth rate (10.81%), the interest rate has a strong positive impact (60.74%), while the inflation rate has a strong negative impact (-53.89%). Therefore, it can be concluded that the interest rate and inflation rate have significant impacts on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia.

  19. [Macroeconomic costs of eye diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirneiß, C; Kampik, A; Neubauer, A S

    2014-05-01

    Eye diseases that are relevant regarding their macroeconomic costs and their impact on society include cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of direct and indirect costs for major eye disease categories for Germany, based on existing literature and data sources. A semi-structured literature search was performed in the databases Medline and Embase and in the search machine Google for relevant original papers and reviews on costs of eye diseases with relevance for or transferability to Germany (last research date October 2013). In addition, manual searching was performed in important national databases and information sources, such as the Federal Office of Statistics and scientific societies. The direct costs for these diseases add up to approximately 2.6 billion Euros yearly for the Federal Republic of Germany, including out of the pocket payments from patients but excluding optical aids (e.g. glasses). In addition to those direct costs there are also indirect costs which are caused e.g. by loss of employment or productivity or by a reduction in health-related quality of life. These indirect costs can only be roughly estimated. Including the indirect costs for the eye diseases investigated, a total yearly macroeconomic cost ranging between 4 and 12 billion Euros is estimated for Germany. The costs for the eye diseases cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors have a macroeconomic relevant dimension. Based on the predicted demographic changes with an ageing society an increase of the prevalence and thus also an increase of costs for eye diseases is expected in the future.

  20. Macroeconomics in an open economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, R N

    1986-09-12

    The customary treatment of national economies as closed and self-contained must be substantially modified to allow for those economies that typically trade goods, services, and securities with other countries in increasing volume. Open economy macroeconomics is essential to understanding the major events of the U.S. economy over the past half dozen years. Both the sharp rise in the dollar and the unprecedentedly large U.S. trade deficit are linked to the U.S. budget deficit, as is the drop in the rate of inflation.

  1. The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlberg, M

    1990-02-01

    "What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix." (SUMMARY IN GER) excerpt

  2. Review of Selected Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    High prices of building materials had form a crucial constraint to improving construction procurement in Nigeria. The influence of the macro-economic indicators on this problem cannot be ruled out. This study therefore investigates the impact of macro-economic indicators on the prices of building materials with a view to ...

  3. Macroeconomic policies and forestry in Zimbabwe | Mabugu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses the potential impacts of macroeconomic policies on forestry in Zimbabwe. Over the period 1980 – 2001, macroeconomic policies have swung from a centrally controlled economy to a liberalized economy and back to a centrally controlled economy. In general, Zimbabwe's experience suggests that ...

  4. What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araujo, Pedro; O'Sullivan, Roisin; Simpson, Nicole B.

    2013-01-01

    A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach…

  5. Identification of Macroeconomic Factors in Large Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Dewachter, Hans; Houssa, Romain

    standard practices in the SVAR literature. Estimators based on the EM algorithm are developped. We apply this framework to a large panel of US monthly macroeconomic series. In particular, we identify nine macroeconomic factors and discuss the economic impact of monetary policy stocks. The results...

  6. Macroeconomic and household-level impacts of HIV/AIDS in Botswana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefferis, Keith; Kinghorn, Anthony; Siphambe, Happy; Thurlow, James

    2008-07-01

    To measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and poverty in Botswana and estimate how providing treatment can mitigate its effects. Demographic and financial projections were combined with economic simulation models, including a macroeconomic growth model and a macro-microeconomic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growth and increases household poverty. The impact is now severe enough to be affecting the economy as a whole, and threatens to pull some of the uninfected population into poverty. Providing antiretroviral therapy can partly offset this negative effect. Treatment increases health's share of government expenditure only marginally, because it increases economic growth and because withholding treatment raises the cost of other health services. Botswana's treatment programme is appropriate from a macroeconomic perspective. Conducting macroeconomic impact assessments is important in countries where prevalence rates are particularly high.

  7. The macroeconomic determinants of technological progress in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examines the macroeconomic determinants of technological progress (total factor productivity in Nigeria that is consistent with the endogenous growth theory. The estimations are carried out with time-series data from 1970 to 2006 using the Johansen estimation techniques. The study is distinct from most of the existing literature since it made an attempt in generating a time-varying technological progress. It employs the Kalman filter technique to determine the evolution of the Solow residual estimated from a Cobb-Douglas production function. The results conform to the existing literature that macroeconomic instability, the level of financial development, and the level of human development are highly significant determinants of technological progress in Nigeria.

  8. The structuralist tradition in economics: methodological and macroeconomics aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FABRÍCIO MISSIO

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the structuralist tradition in economics, emphasizing the role that structures play in the economic growth of developing countries. Since the subject at hand is evidently too large to cover in a single article, an emphasis has been brought to bear upon the macroeconomic elements of such a tradition, while also exploring its methodological aspects. It begins by analysing some general aspects of structuralism in economics (its evolution and origins associated with ECLAC thought, in this instance focusing on the dynamics of the center-periphery relationship. Thereafter, the macroeconomic structuralism derived from the works of Taylor (1983, 1991 is presented, followed by a presentation of neo-structuralism. Centred on the concept of systemic competitiveness, this approach defines a strategy to achieve the high road of globalization, understood here as an inevitable process in spite of its engagement being dependent on the policies adopted. The conclusions show the genuine contributions of this tradition to economic theory.

  9. Macroeconomic prospects in the banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gnjatović Dragana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the book The Oxford Handbook of Banking, translated to Serbian language, published by the Association of Serbian Banks, Belgrade (2015, there are six essays devoted to macroeconomic prospects of the banking industry. In the objective, scientifically founded way, the authors of these essays have put the problems of banking operations in a wider macroeconomic, historical context. Their view on the disturbances on the banking market, including the latest global financial and economic crisis, warns the economic policy makers on the national and supranational level that the proper measure of government intervention in the fight against macroeconomic instability has not been found yet.

  10. The macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, George J; Brown, Melissa M; Brown, Gary C

    2005-06-01

    The purpose of this review is to examine the macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases. Approximately 6% of the Medicare Part B expenditure was spent on ocular diseases and 0.3% on vitreoretinal interventions. Among the 17,674 practicing ophthalmologists, 1849 (10.5%) designated themselves as specializing in the treatment of vitreoretinal diseases. Ophthalmologists receive 38% of their payments from Medicare; 13% of their total income were capitated. Age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy, two conditions commonly treated by vitreoretinal specialists, are projected to affect more than 10 million people in 2020. Vitreoretinal interventions account for only a small portion of the total health care expenditure. The rising demand from the aging population and health care costs will continue to put pressure on all physicians and society. The changes in the sources of payment and managed care will directly affect the economics of a physician's practice.

  11. Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Yee Peng; Muhammad, Junaina; Amin Noordin, Bany Ariffin; Cheng, Fan Fah

    2018-02-01

    This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004-2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy, it is not spared from various sources of macroeconomic volatility through the decades. The reported data cover 15 types of macroeconomic data series, representing three broad categories of indicators that can be used to proxy macroeconomic volatility. They are indicators that account for macroeconomic volatility (i.e. volatility as a macroeconomic outcome), domestic sources of macroeconomic volatility and external sources of macroeconomic volatility. In particular, the selected countries are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, which are regarded as developing countries, while Singapore, Japan and Australia are developed countries. Despite the differences in level of economic development, these countries were affected by similar sources of macroeconomic volatility such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. These countries were also affected by other similar external turbulence arising from factors such as the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and volatile commodity prices. Nonetheless, there were also sources of macroeconomic volatility which were peculiar to certain countries only. These were generally domestic sources of volatility such as political instability (for Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines), natural disasters and anomalous weather conditions (for Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Australia) and over-dependence on the electronic sector (for Singapore).

  12. Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee Peng Chow

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004–2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy, it is not spared from various sources of macroeconomic volatility through the decades. The reported data cover 15 types of macroeconomic data series, representing three broad categories of indicators that can be used to proxy macroeconomic volatility. They are indicators that account for macroeconomic volatility (i.e. volatility as a macroeconomic outcome, domestic sources of macroeconomic volatility and external sources of macroeconomic volatility. In particular, the selected countries are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, which are regarded as developing countries, while Singapore, Japan and Australia are developed countries. Despite the differences in level of economic development, these countries were affected by similar sources of macroeconomic volatility such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. These countries were also affected by other similar external turbulence arising from factors such as the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and volatile commodity prices. Nonetheless, there were also sources of macroeconomic volatility which were peculiar to certain countries only. These were generally domestic sources of volatility such as political instability (for Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, natural disasters and anomalous weather conditions (for Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Australia and over-dependence on the electronic sector (for Singapore.

  13. The Relationship between Housing Finance and Macroeconomics Variables in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binti Mohd Shukor Nur Baizura

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Housing finance is one of the factors that contribute in the overall economy growth of the country. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship of housing finance variable and the macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. By adopting time series technique of Vector Auto regression (VAR and Impulse Response to determine the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic and housing finance variable. The cointegration result shows that there exists a long run relationship between the macroeconomic variable and housing finance variable. The finding from impulse response function indicates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP response positively to the Primary Mortgage Market (PMM, which shows that during the good economy there are more housing loan extends by the banking institution. Meanwhile, interest rate response negatively to Secondary Mortgage Market (SMM, which implies that during the financial crisis, more housing loan sold to the Secondary Mortgage Market as one of the measure by the government to increase liquidity in banking institutions. As a conclusion, there is presence of relationship between the variable which change in one variable will affect the other variable in the long run.

  14. Growth and Efficiency at the Macroeconomic Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Sîrghi

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available La croissance est un procès sous l’influence d’interférence de facteurs économiques social et politique. C’est le motif pour lequel le processus de la croissance peut être analyse parmi la dimension macroéconomique, social, mais aussi politique. C’est évident que la croissance économique peut être aprecier par mis des indicateurs macroéconomiques de resultat total et per capita. Pour l’analyse de la croissance économique et de corrélation d‘eficence, les structures de la population et de la technique sont celles qui définissent le contient multidimensionnelle de la croissance. Il y a trois variables qui déterminent la dynamique économique: la population, la technique et l’espace. L’interférence de ces variables peut être analysé par mis des effets: par l’effet quantitatif qui détermine: les niveaux et la dynamique du produit et du revenu national per total et per capita; la mesure dans la quelle l’économie s’inscrit dans trend de la croissance au long terme; la mesure dans laquelle la croissance économique détermine une mutation dans le comportement individuel et social par la revenue disponible.

  15. Growth and Efficiency at the Macroeconomic Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandrina Duta

    2006-07-01

    Il y a trois variables qui déterminent la dynamique économique: la population, la technique et l’espace. L’interférence de ces variables peut être analysé par mis des effets: par l’effet quantitatif qui détermine: les niveaux et la dynamique du produit et du revenu national per total et per capita; la mesure dans la quelle l’économie s’inscrit dans trend de la croissance au long terme; la mesure dans laquelle la croissance économique détermine une mutation dans le comportement individuel et social par la revenue disponible.

  16. Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

    2014-01-01

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  17. Experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, T.; Bao, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.; Duffy, J.

    2014-01-01

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  18. Stock returns, macroeconomic variables and expectations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lúcio Linck; Roberto Frota Decourt

    2016-01-01

    ... returns in Brazil from 2000 to 2010. The study investigates the causality relationships among real stock returns, basic interest rates, GDP, ination and the market expectation of future behavior of these macroeconomic variables...

  19. Macroeconomic model of national economy development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Naval

    1996-03-01

    Full Text Available Some approaches to modeling of national economy development are considered. Methods and models for determination of forecasting values of macroeconomic parameters are proposed at availability or absence of external financing.

  20. Modern Paradigm in Macroeconomic Monetary Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Lipară

    2016-01-01

    We appreciated that in order to achieve macroeconomic stability a mix between monetary andfiscal policies is needed, fixed rules should be applied in interdependence with discretionarygovernment measures and acting upon incomes is the best way to fight against inflation.

  1. A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    N. Gregory Mankiw

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a non-technical discussion of some of the important developments in macroeconomics over the past twenty years. It considers three broad categories of research. First, it discusses how the notion of rational expectations has affected economists' views on the role of economic policy, the debate over rules versus discretion, and empirical work in macroeconomics Second, it discusses various new classical approaches to the business cycle, including imperfect information theorie...

  2. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

  3. Macroeconomic trends and reforms in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Sabbatini

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper traces the main macroeconomic developments in the German economy from national unification. Its performance is compared with that of the rest of the euro area and its largest economies. The study documents as GermanyÕs modest growth in the later 1990s was due to the restrictive impact on domestic demand coming from the deep restructuring and modernization of the production system, followed by sweeping reforms after the turn of the century. Rapid productivity increases and prolonged wage moderation, especially in industry, fuelled a large and mounting current account surplus in Germany, that compares with the deficits registered in most European countries. The study retraces the recent debate on how to correct those imbalances, recalling the arguments for and against the thesis that the countries with a current payments surplus, above all Germany, must also play an active role in fostering the adjustment of the deficit countries. A possible synthesis is proposed, based on an analysis of the formation of national income and the use of resources according to the national accounts system. The implication is that Germany may contribute to the correction of imbalances within the euro area not so much by altering the wage formation mechanism as by creating incentives for domestic investment, hence fostering employment creation, in the service sectors that are currently lagging behind the extraordinary perfomance of a number of core activities in the industry.

  4. Macroeconomic Assessment of Voltage Sags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan Küfeoğlu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The electric power sector has changed dramatically since the 1980s. Electricity customers are now demanding uninterrupted and high quality service from both utilities and authorities. By becoming more and more dependent on the voltage sensitive electronic equipment, the industry sector is the one which is affected the most by voltage disturbances. Voltage sags are one of the most crucial problems for these customers. The utilities, on the other hand, conduct cost-benefit analyses before going through new investment projects. At this point, understanding the costs of voltage sags become imperative for planning purposes. The characteristics of electric power consumption and hence the susceptibility against voltage sags differ considerably among different industry subsectors. Therefore, a model that will address the estimation of worth of electric power reliability for a large number of customer groups is necessary. This paper introduces a macroeconomic model to calculate Customer Voltage Sag Costs (CVSCs for the industry sector customers. The proposed model makes use of analytical data such as value added, annual energy consumption, working hours, and average outage durations and provides a straightforward, credible, and easy to follow methodology for the estimation of CVSCs.

  5. Managing Macroeconomic Risks by Using Statistical Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merkaš Zvonko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the possibilities of using statistical simulation in the macroeconomic risks measurement. At the level of the whole world, macroeconomic risks are, due to the excessive imbalance, significantly increased. Using analytical statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation, the authors interpret the collected data sets, compare and analyze them in order to mitigate potential risks. The empirical part of the study is a qualitative case study that uses statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation for managing macroeconomic risks, which is the central theme of this work. Application of statistical simulation is necessary because the system, for which it is necessary to specify the model, is too complex for an analytical approach. The objective of the paper is to point out the previous need for consideration of significant macroeconomic risks, particularly in terms of the number of the unemployed in the society, the movement of gross domestic product and the country’s credit rating, and the use of data previously processed by statistical methods, through statistical simulation, to analyze the existing model of managing the macroeconomic risks and suggest elements for a management model development that will allow, with the lowest possible probability and consequences, the emergence of the recent macroeconomic risks. The stochastic characteristics of the system, defined by random variables as input values defined by probability distributions, require the performance of a large number of iterations on which to record the output of the model and calculate the mathematical expectations. The paper expounds the basic procedures and techniques of discrete statistical simulation applied to systems that can be characterized by a number of events which represent a set of circumstances that have caused a change in the system’s state and the possibility of its application in the field of assessment of macroeconomic risks. The method has no

  6. The Response of US College Enrollment to Unexpected Changes in Macroeconomic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Kris M.; Beckert, Kim A.; Ewing, Bradley T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper estimates the extent and magnitude of US college and university enrollment responses to unanticipated changes in macroeconomic activity. In particular, we consider the relationship between enrollment, economic growth, and inflation. A time series analysis known as a vector autoregression is estimated and impulse response functions are…

  7. Macro-economic Impact Study for Bio-based Malaysia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijl, van H.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Dijk, van M.; Powell, J.P.; Tabeau, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    This Macro-economic Impact Study (MES) provides quantitative insights into the macro-economic effects of introducing green, palmbased alternatives for electricity, fuels, chemicals and materials industries in Malaysia between now and 2030.

  8. Relationship between macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitrović Ranka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is relations between some macroeconomic aggregates and performance of banks. This paper show analysis of trends in gross domestic product, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation load, developments in the balance of payments. On the business side, performance is achieved insight into the liquidity, capital adequacy, and the amount of non-performable loans. The aim of the research is to refute or confirm the interconnectedness of movement values of macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance. The analysis confirmed the association of two set variables. The negative value movements of macroeconomic aggregates directly or indirectly have an impact on the quality of performance of the banking sector. Therefore, it is necessary to define an adequate strategy of the economy, would not it safer to carry out the process of adapting to new developments in the market, such as the global financial crisis, the rise in unproductive enterprises, distrust customers etc.

  9. INTERACTION OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES WITH STOCK PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALİ ÖZER

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to determine whether there is a relationship between ISE 100 Index and some macroeconomic variables by using monthly data of January 1996 – December 2009. ISE 100 Index was used as dependent variable and interest rates, money supply, foreign trade equilibrium, industrial production index, gold prices, exchange rates, consumer price index were used as independent variables. Least squares estimation method, Johansen-Jeselius cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition results produced by VEC model were used in the study. These analysis show that there is a long run relationship between some macroeconomic variables and stock prices.

  10. Reconstructing Macroeconomics Based on Statistical Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Masanao; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

    We believe that time has come to integrate the new approach based on statistical physics or econophysics into macroeconomics. Toward this goal, there must be more dialogues between physicists and economists. In this paper, we argue that there is no reason why the methods of statistical physics so successful in many fields of natural sciences cannot be usefully applied to macroeconomics that is meant to analyze the macroeconomy comprising a large number of economic agents. It is, in fact, weird to regard the macroeconomy as a homothetic enlargement of the representative micro agent. We trust the bright future of the new approach to macroeconomies based on statistical physics.

  11. Macroeconomic Dynamics of Assets, Leverage and Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozendaal, Jeroen C.; Malevergne, Yannick; Sornette, Didier

    A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of economic growth, and how credit may be associated with both economic performance and confidence. Our first notable finding is the mechanism of reward/penalty associated with patience, as quantified by the return on assets. In regular economies where the EBITA/Assets ratio is larger than the cost of debt, starting with a trust higher than leverage results in the highest long-term return on assets (which can be seen as a proxy for economic growth). Therefore, patient economies that first build trust and then increase leverage are positively rewarded. Our second main finding concerns a recommendation for the reaction of a central bank to an external shock that affects negatively the economic growth. We find that late policy intervention in the model economy results in the highest long-term return on assets. However, this comes at the cost of suffering longer from the crisis until the intervention occurs. The phenomenon that late intervention is most effective to attain a high long-term return on assets can be ascribed to the fact that postponing intervention allows trust to increase first, and it is most effective to intervene when trust is high. These results are derived from two fundamental assumptions underlying our model: (a) trust tends to increase when it is above leverage; (b) economic agents learn optimally to adjust debt for a given level of trust and amount of assets. Using a Markov Switching Model for the EBITA/Assets ratio, we have successfully calibrated our model to the empirical data of the return on equity of the EURO STOXX 50 for the time period 2000-2013. We find that dynamics of leverage and trust can be highly nonmonotonous with curved trajectories, as a result of the nonlinear coupling between the variables. This

  12. Visibility graph analysis on quarterly macroeconomic series of China based on complex network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Na; Li, Dong; Wang, Qiwen

    2012-12-01

    The visibility graph approach and complex network theory provide a new insight into time series analysis. The inheritance of the visibility graph from the original time series was further explored in the paper. We found that degree distributions of visibility graphs extracted from Pseudo Brownian Motion series obtained by the Frequency Domain algorithm exhibit exponential behaviors, in which the exponential exponent is a binomial function of the Hurst index inherited in the time series. Our simulations presented that the quantitative relations between the Hurst indexes and the exponents of degree distribution function are different for different series and the visibility graph inherits some important features of the original time series. Further, we convert some quarterly macroeconomic series including the growth rates of value-added of three industry series and the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product series of China to graphs by the visibility algorithm and explore the topological properties of graphs associated from the four macroeconomic series, namely, the degree distribution and correlations, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and community structure. Based on complex network analysis we find degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of value-added of three industry series are almost exponential and the degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of GDP series are scale free. We also discussed the assortativity and disassortativity of the four associated networks as they are related to the evolutionary process of the original macroeconomic series. All the constructed networks have “small-world” features. The community structures of associated networks suggest dynamic changes of the original macroeconomic series. We also detected the relationship among government policy changes, community structures of associated networks and macroeconomic dynamics. We find great influences of government

  13. Nigeria: macroeconomic environment and the perennial crops ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ordinary Least Square estimation shows that most macroeconomic policy variables – exchange rate, interest rate, government expenditure, credit are negatively related to outputs. Technological change and policy shift variables are negative for cocoa but positive for other crops. Collectively, the variables explain between ...

  14. Public Service Employment as Macroeconomic Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baily, Martin N.; Solow, Robert M.

    1979-01-01

    Authors assert that public service employment (PSE) is one form of macroeconomic policy and compare PSE to tax reduction, federal subsidies, and other forms. They propose a design for an ongoing federal employment program and conclude that a PSE program aimed at the structurally unemployed creates more jobs per GNP dollar than other policies. (SK)

  15. Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations in macroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Massaro, D.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis studies the effect of individual bounded rationality on aggregate macroeconomic dynamics. Boundedly rational agents are specified as using simple heuristics in their decision making. An important aspect of the type of bounded rationality described in this thesis is that the population of

  16. Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeekes, Stephan; Wijler, Etiënne

    2016-01-01

    We study the suitability of lasso-type penalized regression techniques when applied to macroeconomic forecasting with high-dimensional datasets. We consider performance of the lasso-type methods when the true DGP is a factor model, contradicting the sparsity assumption underlying penalized

  17. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  18. The Readability of Principles of Macroeconomics Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinkler, Sarah; Woods, James

    2013-01-01

    The authors evaluated principles of macroeconomics textbooks for readability using Coh-Metrix, a computational linguistics tool. Additionally, they conducted an experiment on Amazon's Mechanical Turk Web site in which participants ranked the readability of text samples. There was a wide range of scores on readability indexes both among…

  19. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  20. Nigeria: macroeconomic environment and the perennial crops ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines the impacts of macroeconomic environment on the output performances of perennial crops – namely cocoa, rubber, palm oil and palm kernel in Nigeria. The time series data used for the analysis reveals agricultural policy/programme instability. Ordinary Least Square estimation shows that most ...

  1. Periodic integration in quarterly UK macroeconomic variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); G. Romijn

    1993-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents empirical evidence on the seasonal patterns in several UK macroeconomic variables, additional to related evidence reported in Osborn (International Journal of Forecasting (1990), 6, 327–336). The method used is a test procedure for seasonal unit roots that allows

  2. Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Residential Property ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sultan

    An attempt was made in this study to bridge the existing gap in the knowledge of the influence exerted by macroeconomic factors on residential .... inflation, high level of employment, low level of unemployment and balanced economic ... employment rate on property returns 1s consistent with that of Apergi (2003). Sari et al.

  3. Financial globalisation and macroeconomic performance in Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Financial globalisation and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria. EK Ogunleye. Abstract. No Abstract. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ajep.v15i1.44924 · AJOL African Journals Online.

  4. Macroeconomics and Human Development, by Deepak Nayyar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiana Ioana ŞERBĂNEL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Microeconomics and Human Development pursue to tackle both negative and positive effects of macroeconomics on human development and vice-versa through a series of external and internal factors. The book consists in a series of articles published in a prestigious publication: Journal of Human Development and Capabilities. The authors have a perennial echo in the economic field.

  5. Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanasković Svetozar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse macroeconomic and institutional empirical determinants of growth of NPL ratios. Research is focused on selected CEEC and SEE countries in the period 2006- 2013. For our analysis we use static panel model approach with the logarithm of share of NPLs to total loans as a dependent variable. As independent variables we used a combination of country-specific macroeconomic and financial indicators which are commonly used in reference literature, as well as relevant institutional variables. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between increases in GDP and rise of the NPL ratio. Along with GDP, foreign currency loans ratio and level of exchange rate are positively related with the increase of NPL ratio. This confirms the expectation that countries where domestic currency is not the main medium of credit placements will have larger problems with the level of NPLs, which is even more pronounced in periods of domestic currency depreciation. In the presented models, the inflation rate is reported as statistically insignificant for sample countries. In the group of institutional variables, only financial market level of development is reported as statistically significant in relation to the level of NPL - with a more developed financial market the level of NPLs should be lower.

  6. Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Angelica E. Njuguna; Stephen N. Karingi; Mwangi S. Kimenyi

    2005-01-01

    Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essential in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key benchmark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the deter...

  7. THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON CREDIT RISK: CASE OF ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to explore the interactions between macroeconomic conditions, such as: real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, market interest rate, broad money supply, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and unemployment rate, and credit risk in Romanian banking sector during 2008-2013. The interrelations of indicators’ complexity imply a multidimensional statistical analysis in order to find a relation between the macroeconomic conditions and the credit risk. Our regression analysis findings confirm the hypothesis according to which the money supply growth rate and the market foreign exchange rate are negatively related with credit risk and the unemployment rate is positively related with it. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the credit risk is significantly and negatively affected by the exchange rate fluctuation and significantly and positively affected by the unemployment rate. The results do not indicate a significant relationship between credit risk and real GDP growth rate.

  8. A tale of trade-offs: the impact of macroeconomic factors on environmental concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, Stephen J; Emerson, Tisha L N

    2014-12-01

    We test whether macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. Improvements in environmental quality, like everything, come at a cost. Individuals facing difficult economic times may be less willing to make trade-offs required for improvements in environmental quality. Using somewhat different methodologies and shorter time frames, prior investigations have generally found a direct relationship between willingness to pay for environmental improvements and macroeconomic conditions. We use a nearly 40-year span (27 periods) of the General Social Survey (1974-2012) to estimate attitudes toward environmental spending while controlling for U.S. macroeconomic conditions and respondent-specific factors such as age, gender, marital status, number of children, residential location, educational attainment, personal financial condition, political party affiliation and ideology. Macroeconomic conditions include one-year lagged controls for the unemployment rate, the rate of economic growth (percentage change in real GDP), and an indicator for whether the U.S. economy was experiencing a recession. We find that, in general, when economic conditions are unfavorable (i.e., during a recession, or with higher unemployment, or lower GDP growth), respondents are more likely to believe the U.S. is spending too much on "improving and protecting the environment". Interacting lagged macroeconomic controls with respondent's income, we find that these views are at least partially offset by the respondent's own economic condition (i.e., their own real income). Our findings are consistent with the notion that environmental quality is a normal, or procyclical good, i.e., that environmental spending should rise when the economy is expanding and fall during economic contractions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolaji Adesola Adesoye

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the macroeconomic effects of aggregate export demand in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1970 and 2013. The paper made use of the ordinary least square method to analyse the long-run relationship for the period under study. The empirical results confirm that there exists a unique and significant long-run equilibrium relationship among export volume, world income, crude oil price, domestic output, exchange rate and cost of doing business. The estimated results show that domestic income has the highest elasticity, followed by world’s output and cost of doing business, which all report positive relations. Other macroeconomic factors reported negative relationship with aggregate export volume. Thus, an important policy implication of our findings is that stabilizing Nigeria’s export earnings potential by counteracting the external factors that influence adversely the Nigerian exports such as crude oil price and cost of doing business.

  10. Real-time macroeconomic data and uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Glass, Katharina; Fritsche, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes avail- able. We suggest that revisions of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative channel of uncertainty - data uncer- tainty. This paper adds on the uncertainty literature and focuses on data uncertainty, which originates in the revision structure of data. We find that apart from the general and eco- nomic policy uncertainty, the data uncer...

  11. Intermediate Macroeconomics : Self-evaluation exercises

    OpenAIRE

    Echevarría Olave, Cruz Ángel; García Enríquez, Javier

    2012-01-01

    This resource can be particularly helpful to students taking the Intermediate Macroeconomics course, which corresponds to the second year of the current Degree in Economics at the University of the Basque Country UPV/ EHU. The precise content of this resource is a collection of eight chapters of multiple-choice questions. For each question the user is asked to guess which the correct answer is. Finally, the tool will return all the correct answers for the whole test, thereby allowing the...

  12. Impact of Main Macroeconomic Indicators on Happiness

    OpenAIRE

    Yavuz Agan; Ender Sevinc; Mehmet Orhan

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between economic welfare and happiness has been compounded by different conceptualizations and statistical approaches. Economic conditions influence the welfare and social well-being of the society. While the literature indicates a positive relationship between income levels and life satisfaction, it indicates negative relationships between inflation, unemployment and life satisfaction. In this paper we analyze the relationship between main macroeconomic variables of unemploy...

  13. Financial Factors, Rare Disasters and Macroeconomic Fluctuations.

    OpenAIRE

    Gruss, Bertrand

    2010-01-01

    Defense date: 25/10/2010 Examining Board: Prof. Giancarlo Corsetti, EUI, Supervisor Prof. Ramon Marimon, EUI Prof. Enrique Mendoza, University of Maryland Prof. Vincenzo Quadrini, University of Southern California This thesis attempts to shed light on the role of financial factors and vulnerabilities in shaping macroeconomic fluctuations. It contributes to the literature that integrates financial factors into the real business cycle paradigm by introducing asymmetries and di...

  14. Macroeconomics correlations focused on foreign direct investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodora ALECU

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This article is meant to reveal the way in which the theory of interconnections between systems and sub-systems partici-pating to the creation of economic value, which have been described by professor Paul Bran in his book Economics of Value is outlined in practice and how its analysis may help us to control the effects of the policies applied at the level of each macroeconomic sub-system.

  15. The effect of macroeconomic variables on suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, Michael; Dodd, Seetal; Henry, Margaret

    2006-02-01

    There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index. A total of 51845 males and 16327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers' perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.

  16. New macroeconomic model of national economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyudmila Nikolaevna Kuklina

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the relevance of the formation of new macroeconomic models of post-crisis development of the national economy and regional economy. It is noted that there is not just a set of models of national economies and a set of methodological approaches to its modeling. Formation of macroeconomic models takes into consideration the features of socio-economic development of individual regions. In this context, the major regions are highlighted, in particular, the Ural Federal District. It is noted that the structure of regional economic space of the Ural Federal District is different, and different is the level of involvement of the region in the global economy. The problem of correlation of the history of economic ideas and the world of real economic processes of recent decades is reviewed. Predictive capacity of the modern theory of the cycle and the possibility of using its analytical tools for the formation of a new macroeconomic model of post-crisis development of the national economy is analyzed.

  17. Sectoral composition and macroeconomic dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Alonso Carrera, Jaime

    2011-01-01

    We analyze the transitional dynamics of a model with heterogeneous consumption goods. In this model, convergence is driven by two different forces: the typical diminishing returns to capital and the sectoral change inducing the variation in relative prices. We show that this second force affects the growth rate if the two consumption goods are not Edgeworth independent and if these two goods are produced with technologies exhibiting different capital intensities. Because the afore mentioned d...

  18. Analysis Of Japans Economy Based On 2014 From Macroeconomics Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Mohammad Rafiqul Islam

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Japan is the worlds third largest economy. But currently economic situations of Japan are not stable. It is not increasing as expected. Since 2013 it was world second largest economy but Japan loosed its placed to China in 2014 due to slow growth of important economic indicators. By using the basic Keynesian model we will provide a detailed analysis of the short and long run impacts of the changes for Japans real GDP rate of unemployment and inflation rate. We demonstrated a detailed use of the 45-degree diagram or the AD-IA model and other economic analysis of the macroeconomic principles that underlie the model and concepts. Finally we will recommend the government with a change in fiscal policy what based on the analysis by considering what might be achieved with a fiscal policy response and the extent to which any impact on the stock of public debt might be a consideration

  19. The macroeconomics of targeting: the case of an enduring epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Clive; Gersbach, Hans

    2009-01-01

    What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, at first on some subgroups of society. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. A summary account of the empirical evidence is followed by an application of the framework to South Africa.

  20. MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES IN POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Bieniasz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this work is to analyse the phenomenon of enterprises’ bankruptcy in Poland in 2004-2013 and attempt to build regression models defining the relationship between the number of bankrupted companies and selected macroeconomic parameters of the national economy. The analysis is based on Coface Poland reports presenting the phenomenon of bankruptcy in Poland of branches, provinces, legal forms of companies and types of bankruptcy proceedings. Studies have shown that the greatest risk of bankruptcy refers to metals production and fabricated metal products enterprises, manufacture of food products and beverages, wholesale trade, construction, micro and small enterprises, enterprises under the age of 10 years and companies from Mazovia region, Silesia and Lower Silesia. The estimated parameters of the regression models showed that the number of bankruptcies in Poland is strongly determined i.a. by the number of registered companies, GDP growth, dynamics of changes in fixed capital formation and changes in foreign exchange rates.

  1. macroeconomic policy and the optimal destruction of vampires

    OpenAIRE

    Snower, Dennis J.

    1981-01-01

    summary: this paper provides a framework for the synthesis of vampirism and macroeconomics. vampires influence macroeconomic activity by devouring the labor force and by provoking protective human activities which divert resources from other productive uses. on the other hand, human macroeconomic activity influences vampirism by providing blood whereby vampires are nourished and stakes whereby they are destroyed. a mathematical model is built which describes the delicate ecological balance be...

  2. INVESTIGATION OFRELATIONSHIPBETWEEN HOUSE PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY

    OpenAIRE

    ‹lkay Oner Bodurlar

    2008-01-01

    This study analyses the dynamic effects of macroeconomic variables (i.e. gross domestic product (GDP), money supply, short-run interest rates and exchange rates) on the house prices in Turkey for the period 2000-2006. Estimates of the long run relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables are obtained using the Johansen cointegration test. The results of cointegration analysis suggest that there exists a long run relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables. V...

  3. Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wei

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Using annual data from 1997–2014 of 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, subdividing trended and cyclical volatility of macroeconomics and inflation, considering different indicators of financial development and financial structure, this paper investigated the impact of financial development and financial structure on macroeconomic volatility. The empirical results found that (1 the trended and cyclical volatility of the previous macroeconomic period had a significantly positive impact on that of the current period, and the impact of trended volatility was greater than that of cyclical volatility; (2 financial development had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility through inflation cyclical volatility, but inflation trended volatility would amplify macroeconomic volatility; financial markets have no significant effect on macroeconomic volatility; financial structure measured with the ratio of stock market turnover and the efficiency of the financial development had a significant positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility; and (3 inflation trended volatility had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility and trended volatility, while inflation cyclical volatility had a significantly positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility.

  4. Impacts of Exchange Rate Regime Choice on Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüstem Yanar

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regime choice on macroeconomic performance after Bretton Woods in emerging market countries. It is studied especially inflation, growth and financial crises. It’s found that for emerging market countries, fixed regimes are associated with lower inflation than floats. On growth effect of exchange rate regime choice is not same all period. Fixed regimes are associated with faster growth but after 1990 fixed regimes brought about slower growth. At the same time, fixed exchange rate regimes are associated with financial fragility after 1990 in emerging markets

  5. Romania’s Macroeconomic Steering in 2015 - between Enthusiasm and Recession Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian - Marian Barbu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article reveals that, despite having a solid macro-economic state and a significant economic growth as starting points, those who conceive the fiscal-budgetary macroeconomic policies in Romania apply more enthusiasm than principles of responsibility, prudence and sustainability. While economic growth in Romania is over 3% of the GDP, public debt of a little over 40% of the GDP, budget revenues with 7.8% bigger than during the first 9 months of the previous year, and budgetary surplus of almost 1% of the GDP after the first 8 months, the 2016 budget prospects look good. Well, they are actually not. If the Government implements the budgetary expenditure announced, the budget deficit may explode which may lead, in 2018, to exceeding the maximal critical threshold of public debt, and in this case, according to the Romanian National Bank, the recession risk will be over 50%.

  6. Essays on Macroeconomics and Oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakir, Nida

    In these essays, I examine (i) the empirical methods that are widely used in the literature to measure total factor productivity growth and (ii) the impact of nationalization on productivity in the oil industry. The first chapter, which is an ongoing work with SHI, Wei, investigates two empirical measures, quantity-based (primal) measure and price-based (dual) measure, of total factor productivity growth. My co-author and I analyze how these two measures are affected by output market imperfection or variable capacity utilization. We find that under constant-returns-to-scale production function assumption, existence of the imperfect competition in the output market creates a gap between the measured TFP growth and the true TFP growth, no matter which method is used. However, theoretically, it does not affect the equivalence between the two measures. Under variable capacity utilization, we show that constant-returns-to-scale assumption is almost enough to guarantee the validity of the two methods in correctly capturing the true TFP growth. In the second and third chapters, I analyze the link between nationalization and productivity. The second chapter documents the trends in expropriation acts, and evaluates the impact of expropriations on labor productivity of resource-rich developing countries in the oil industry. In the first part of this chapter, I investigate the trends in the expropriation acts that took place in 102 developing countries during the period 1922-2006. I find that more than half of the acts occurred between 1970 and 1976, there has been an increase in the number of expropriations in recent years, and the extractive sector including petroleum is more likely to be expropriated. Motivated by these facts, in the second part, I examine the oil industry in a period of widespread expropriations, the 1970s. In a sample of major oil-producing countries including OPEC and non-OPEC members, I show that losses in relative labor productivity after

  7. The International Financial and Macro-Economic Frame of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riana Iren RADU

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The international financial and macro-economic frame of the current economic crisis is subjected to certain tensions yet remains relatively robust, even if there is a visible deceleration of economic growth in certain countries, the correlation between the price of actives due to the adjustment of the perception of risk is materialized, and thecharacteristics of the financial markets are significantly changed.

  8. Ratings of Sovereign Risk and the Macroeconomics Fundamentals of the countries: a Study Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Cândido da Silva Filho

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the consequences of asymmetric information, the sovereign risk ratings are instruments that constitute a key piece in the determination of credit market conditions, essential to the growth of developing countries like Brazil. In the present work we studied based on macroeconomics foundations, a classification to sovereign risk ratings realized by the ratings agencies finding the classification using Artificial Neural Networks. We observed homogeneity degree between the attributions of agencies and macroeconomics foundations in the countries of sample which four of foundations seem to be more directly connected with these attributions. After, in a comparative static exercise, we use the model to make simulations of scenarios of the credit external conditions for the Brazilian economy, changing the macroeconomics foundations which we noted that agencies expected for more per capita income increasing and decrease of public debt. (Full article in Portuguese only

  9. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISONS OF THE BUSINESS SECTOR IN ROMANIA IN REGIONAL AND NATIONAL LEVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DOBROTĂ GABRIELA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the response capacity of business environment in the manifestation of some risks of a large amplitude can be achieved by identifying the evolution of fundamental macroeconomic indicators, both in good periods from economically point of view as well as in the difficult phases. This article reflects the evolution of the most important macroeconomic indicators in Romania, before and after the crisis triggered in 2008, at the global and regional level. Also, it represent an radiography of the business environment, from point of view of the evolution of the active entreprises and of their results, which was obtained in the context of the macroeconomics politics promoted by the different gouvernment. The overall conclusion that can be drawn is that the objective of achieving economic growth by all means can have undesirable effects, represented by overheating of the economy and instability.

  10. Entropy, recycling and macroeconomics of water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2014-05-01

    We propose a macroeconomic model for water quantity and quality supply multipliers derived by water recycling (Karakatsanis et al. 2013). Macroeconomic models that incorporate natural resource conservation have become increasingly important (European Commission et al. 2012). In addition, as an estimated 80% of globally used freshwater is not reused (United Nations 2012), under increasing population trends, water recycling becomes a solution of high priority. Recycling of water resources creates two major conservation effects: (1) conservation of water in reservoirs and aquifers and (2) conservation of ecosystem carrying capacity due to wastewater flux reduction. Statistical distribution properties of the recycling efficiencies -on both water quantity and quality- for each sector are of vital economic importance. Uncertainty and complexity of water reuse in sectors are statistically quantified by entropy. High entropy of recycling efficiency values signifies greater efficiency dispersion; which -in turn- may indicate the need for additional infrastructure for the statistical distribution's both shifting and concentration towards higher efficiencies that lead to higher supply multipliers. Keywords: Entropy, water recycling, water supply multipliers, conservation, recycling efficiencies, macroeconomics References 1. European Commission (EC), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), United Nations (UN) and World Bank (2012), System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework (White cover publication), United Nations Statistics Division 2. Karakatsanis, G., N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis and A. Efstratiades (2013), Entropy and reliability of water use via a statistical approach of scarcity, 5th EGU Leonardo Conference - Hydrofractals 2013 - STAHY '13, Kos Island, Greece, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences

  11. Macroeconomic susceptibility, inflation, and aggregate supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Raymond J.

    2017-03-01

    We unify aggregate-supply dynamics as a time-dependent susceptibility-mediated relationship between inflation and aggregate economic output. In addition to representing well various observations of inflation-output dynamics this parsimonious formalism provides a straightforward derivation of popular representations of aggregate-supply dynamics and a natural basis for economic-agent expectations as an element of inflation formation. Our formalism also illuminates questions of causality and time-correlation that challenge central banks for whom aggregate-supply dynamics is a key constraint in their goal of achieving macroeconomic stability.

  12. World Oil Prices and Indonesia Macroeconomic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ichsandimas W.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to look at the relation and contribution value, while the impact of world oil price on the macroeconomic Indonesian form 1980 to 2010. This Study used Vector Auto Regression (VAR method and tool of VAR used are Impulse Response Function (IRF and Variance Decomposition. The results of study finds a positive relation and statistically significant impact of world oil price on inflation and real GDP Indonesian, but not significant and negative relation on real exchange rates. World oil price has contribution value on the inflation, real exchange rates, Indonesia real GDP after first period.

  13. Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achdou, Yves; Buera, Francisco J; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis; Moll, Benjamin

    2014-11-13

    The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  14. INVESTIGATING MACROECONOMIC STABILITY USING THE OUTPUT GAP

    OpenAIRE

    Emilia TITAN; Vladimir GEORGESCU

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to illustrate the importance of the output gap in analysing macroeconomic stability in general and business cycle dynamics in particular. Ten EU countries are considered, with five old members and five new members. For all ten countries the data for the period 1999-2014 is used, but for four countries, namely France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain additional data is available that goes back to 1965, such that the whole period 1965-2014 is covered, which allo...

  15. Complementary system perspectives in ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2016-01-01

    will be included in this effort. Taking an ecological economic understanding of sustainability as the point of departure, and inspired by systems thinking, it is discussed which economic sub-systems should be in focus for sustainability transitions, and whether relevant guides for sustainability can be formulated......, provision and distribution systems. The example concerns investments in sustainability transitions of provision systems and demonstrates the complexities of implementing such transformations during the economic crisis. It also addresses the need for ecological macroeconomics to develop a third position...

  16. Influence of macroeconomic factors on residential property returns in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The methodology employed primary data for returns and secondary data for macro-economic variables, time-series data for annual macroeconomic indices and total returns index spanning between 2001 and 2015. The populations of study consist of transactions of sales (429) and lettings (1213) during the stated period; ...

  17. Resolving macroeconomic uncertainty in stock and bond markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beber, A.; Brandt, M.W.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied volatilities of

  18. Recent Developments in Macroeconomics: A Very Quick Refresher Course

    OpenAIRE

    N. Gregory Mankiw

    1987-01-01

    This paper outlines the major developments in macroeconomics over the past two decades. It examines the reasons for the breakdown in the consensus view of the 1960s and how this breakdown has guided research in macroeconomics. The introduction and importance of "rational expectations" are discussed, as are recent advances within the new classical and new Keynesian paradigms.

  19. Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Sectoral Output Performance: Empirical Evidence from Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Katrakilidis, Constantinos P.; Tabakis, Nikolaos M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical investigation of the links between macroeconomic uncertainty and sectoral output using Greek data. Uncertainty is considered in three distinct components, namely the inflation uncertainty, the exchange rate uncertainty and the output uncertainty. The results highlight the differences in sectoral responsiveness and the importance of a stable macroeconomic environment.

  20. Macroeconomic pressures and their implications for business development in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John

    2011-01-01

    The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries......The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries...

  1. Macroeconomic Stabilization When the Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2015-01-01

    The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand-Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw's widely used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank's inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They…

  2. An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Selected Macroeconomic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also, a review of the various literatures was carried in section two where various macroeconomic aggregates policy option was critically appraised. In section three, an empirical assessment of selected macroeconomic aggregates was carried out where the ordinary least square regression method was applied. In the ...

  3. Intermediate Macroeconomics without the IS-LM Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weerapana, Akila

    2003-01-01

    States that the IS-LM model is the primary model of economic fluctuations taught in undergraduate macroeconomics. Argues that the aggregate demand-price adjustment (AD-PA) model is superior for teaching about economic fluctuations. Compares the IS-LS model with the AD-AP model using two current issues in macroeconomics. (JEH)

  4. Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brauning, F.U.; Koopman, S.J.

    2014-01-01

    We explore a new approach to the forecasting of macroeconomic variables based on a dynamic factor state space analysis. Key economic variables are modeled jointly with principal components from a large time series panel of macroeconomic indicators using a multivariate unobserved components time

  5. Demand, credit and macroeconomic dynamics: A microsimulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijers, H.H.M.; Nomaler, Z.O.; Verspagen, B.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a microsimulation model for the macroeconomic business cycle. Our model is based on three main ideas: (i) we want to specify how macroeconomic coordination is achieved without a dominating influence of price mechanisms, (ii) we want to incorporate the stock-flow-consistent approach that

  6. The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and ISE Industry Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Ozcan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE industry index is examined. Over the past years, numerous studies have analyzed these relationships and the different results obtained from these studies have motivated further research. The relationship between stock exchange index and macroeconomic variables has been well documented for the developed markets. However, there are few studies regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock exchange index for the developing markets. Thus, this paper seeks to address the question of whether macroeconomic variables have a significant relationship with ISE industry index using monthly data for the period from 2003 to 2010. The selected macroeconomic variables for the study include interest rates, consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate, gold prices, oil prices, current account deficit and export volume. The Johansen’s cointegration test is utilized to determine the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on ISE industry index. The result of the Johansen’s cointegration shows that macroeconomic variables exhibit a long run equilibrium relationship with the ISE industry index.

  7. 'Time is costly': modelling the macroeconomic impact of scaling-up antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventelou, Bruno; Moatti, Jean-Paul; Videau, Yann; Kazatchkine, Michel

    2008-01-02

    Macroeconomic policy requirements may limit the capacity of national and international policy-makers to allocate sufficient resources for scaling-up access to HIV care and treatment in developing countries. An endogenous growth model, which takes into account the evolution of society's human capital, was used to assess the macroeconomic impact of policies aimed at scaling-up access to HIV/AIDS treatment in six African countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe). The model results showed that scaling-up access to treatment in the affected population would limit gross domestic product losses due to AIDS although differently from country to country. In our simulated scenarios of access to antiretroviral therapy, only 10.3% of the AIDS shock is counterbalanced in Zimbabwe, against 85.2% in Angola and even 100.0% in Benin (a total recovery). For four out of the six countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Ivory Coast), the macro-economic gains of scaling-up would become potentially superior to its associated costs in 2010. Despite the variability of HIV prevalence rates between countries, macro-economic estimates strongly suggest that a massive investment in scaling-up access to HIV treatment may efficiently counteract the detrimental long-term impact of the HIV pandemic on economic growth, to the extent that the AIDS shock has not already driven the economy beyond an irreversible 'no-development epidemiological trap'.

  8. MACROECONOMIC STABILITY OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold WEISZENBACHER

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the recent financial crisis, the macroeconomic stability of most countries has been cast to shadow. The damage to the economy caused by high inflation, volatile exchange rates, increasing amount of debts and the unstable financial markets has heavily left its toll on the global market and has led to massive unemployment and increasing poverty. This paper aims to follow the eight new Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in 2004, as well as Romania and Bulgaria, who followed suit in 2007, in what concerns their economical performance, following adhesion to the EU while also comparing the periods before and after the economical crisis. They were chosen as a topic of research for the severity with which the crisis affected them and the high degree of reform implementation in the aftermath. It also plans to highlight the effect of the new reforms and the growth potential when compared to the rest of the European Union. The price inflation, real GDP growth, the levels of (unemployment, fiscal policy and stability of exchange rates will provide a clear image of how this cluster of developing countries fare nowadays against the rest of the EU countries.

  9. Macroeconomic Adjustment in Armenia: The Role of External Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bas van AARLE

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a small macroeconomic model of the Armenian economy. After setting up the model and its estimation, a number of macroeconomic scenarios is analyzed in the form of out-of-sample simulations. We analyze the transmissions in the model of a number of macroeconomic shocks and policy scenarios to obtain a better understanding of their possible effects on the internal and external balance of the Armenian economy. A special focus is put on the role of exchange rate and monetary management and the inflow of remittances in the Armenian economy

  10. Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Ranaldo, Angelo

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. Our results deliver insights into the dominating drivers of bond-stock comovements. We find that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact...... that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond-stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on the sign of the realized bond-stock correlation which has recently gone from positive to negative. Macroeconomic...

  11. A Polynomial Term Structure Model with Macroeconomic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Valentim Vicente

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, a myriad of factor models including macroeconomic variables have been proposed to analyze the yield curve. We present an alternative factor model where term structure movements are captured by Legendre polynomials mimicking the statistical factor movements identified by Litterman e Scheinkmam (1991. We estimate the model with Brazilian Foreign Exchange Coupon data, adopting a Kalman filter, under two versions: the first uses only latent factors and the second includes macroeconomic variables. We study its ability to predict out-of-sample term structure movements, when compared to a random walk. We also discuss results on the impulse response function of macroeconomic variables.

  12. Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Budget Deficit in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayesha Mushtaq

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to empirically investigate the relationship between budget deficit and macroeconomic factors i.e., financial development indicator, economic growth, changes in price level and real exchange rate, by using data from1980-2011 for Pakistan. The results reveal that there is a positive and significant relationship between real effective exchange rate and budget deficit on one hand, while economic growth and financial development indicator with reference to budget deficit on the other hand. Changes in price level have a significant and negative relationship with the budget deficit in Pakistan.

  13. Macroeconomic narratives in a world of crises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urhammer, Emil; Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    discourse theory and narrative analysis and investigates discourses by studying the narratives they produce. The study thus contributes to the long line of analyses on discourses on sustainable economy: empirically, by investigating and analysing a number of macroeconomic proposals for solving the system...... made. These responses have in common that they all present a large number of policy proposals for ways in which to solve the current crises and achieve a sustainable economy. This article provides a mapping of a selection of such responses and an analysis of their content. The analysis combines...... crisis, and theoretically, by elaborating on the concept of narrative dynamics in relation to persuasive strength in political decision-making....

  14. INVESTIGATING MACROECONOMIC STABILITY USING THE OUTPUT GAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia TITAN

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to illustrate the importance of the output gap in analysing macroeconomic stability in general and business cycle dynamics in particular. Ten EU countries are considered, with five old members and five new members. For all ten countries the data for the period 1999-2014 is used, but for four countries, namely France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain additional data is available that goes back to 1965, such that the whole period 1965-2014 is covered, which allows for a particular analysis. An empirical analysis is performed with regard to the behaviour of the output gap for different countries over time. The results obtained allow for relevant comparisons and highlight the usefulness of this indicator as a tool in the study of business cycles.

  15. Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwaseyi Ebenezer Olalere

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The study examines the bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of banks profitability in Nigeria analyzing audited financial reports of selected sixteen (16 commercial banks over the period of 2010 to 2015 making up to 96 observations. The study identified that existing studies are sketchy in developing economies even though many studies have emerge in developed economies. The bank profitability is measured by return on assets and return on equity as function of bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants. Using the balanced panel data set, the empirical results of the study shows that capital adequacy and liquidity have a positive and significant effect on bank profitability. However, efficiency ratio have a negative and significant effect on bank profitability. With regards to macroeconomic variable, GDP growth also have a positive and significant impact on banks profitability. The empirical results of the study suggested that banks can improve their profitability through increasing capital and liquidity, decreasing operating cost with conscious effort to maintain transparency in their operations. In addition, a good economic environment for financial institutions foster increase in bank profitability. Hence, the study recommends that further studies can expand the scope while extending to other industries as well.

  16. Associations Between the Macroeconomic Indicators and Suicide Rates in India: Two Ecological Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, Anto P; Senthilkumar, P; Gayathri, K; Shyamsundar, G; Jacob, K S

    2015-01-01

    While western studies have focused on the importance of psychiatric illnesses in the complex pathways leading to suicides, several Indian studies have highlighted the important contributions by economic, social, and cultural factors. Hence, we tested the hypothesis that annual national suicide rates and suicide rates of the different states in India were associated with macroeconomic indices. Data from the National crime records bureau, Ministry of finance, labour bureau, Government of India, population commission, and planning commission official portals, World Bank and the United Nations were accessed. We assessed the correlations of annual national and state-wise suicide rates with macroeconomic, health, and other indices using ecological study design for India, and for its different states and union territories. We documented statistically significant associations between the suicide rates and per capita gross domestic product, consumer price index, foreign exchange, trade balance, total health expenditure as well as literacy rates. As recent economic growth in India is associated with increasing suicide rates, macroeconomic policies emphasizing equitable distribution of resources may help curtailing the population suicide rates in India.

  17. Essays in political economy and resource economic : A macroeconomic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez Acosta, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of four chapters in Political Economy and Resource Economics from a macroeconomic perspective. This collection of works emphasizes the endogenous nature of institutions and their importance for economic development. The four chapters revolve around two central questions:

  18. Interactive macroeconomics stochastic aggregate dynamics with heterogeneous and interacting agents

    CERN Document Server

    Di Guilmi, Corrado

    2017-01-01

    One of the major problems of macroeconomic theory is the way in which the people exchange goods in decentralized market economies. There are major disagreements among macroeconomists regarding tools to influence required outcomes. Since the mainstream efficient market theory fails to provide an internal coherent framework, there is a need for an alternative theory. The book provides an innovative approach for the analysis of agent based models, populated by the heterogeneous and interacting agents in the field of financial fragility. The text is divided in two parts; the first presents analytical developments of stochastic aggregation and macro-dynamics inference methods. The second part introduces macroeconomic models of financial fragility for complex systems populated by heterogeneous and interacting agents. The concepts of financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics are explained in detail in separate chapters. The statistical physics approach is applied to explain theories of macroeconomic modelling a...

  19. MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND GREENFIELD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OF HOTEL BRANDS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Joze Peric; Maja Niksic Radic

    2016-01-01

    .... The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment, the effects of greenfield FDI in tourism and, consequently, the presence of global hotel brands using the comparative analysis...

  20. Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

  1. Do Macroeconomic Crises Always Slow Human Capital Accumulation?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Norbert R. Schady

    2004-01-01

    .... Analysis of the effects of the profound 1988-92 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on the schooling and employment decisions of school-age children in urban areas finds no effect on attendance rates...

  2. Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related

  3. The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Value-Added Agriculture: Approach of Vector Autoregresive Bayesian Model (BVAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Pishbahar

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. To answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. In the present study, the Bayesian Vector autoregresive model and seasonality data for the years between 1991 and 2013 was used to determine the impact of monetary policy on value-added agriculture. Predicts of Vector autoregresive model are usually divertaed due to a lot of parameters in the model. Bayesian vector autoregresive model estimates more reliable predictions due to reducing the number of included parametrs and considering the former models. Compared to the Vector Autoregressive model, the coefficients are estimated more accurately. Based on the results of RMSE in this study, previous function Nrmal-Vyshart was identified as a suitable previous disteribution. According to the results of the impulse response function, the sudden effects of shocks in macroeconomic variables on the value added in agriculture and domestic venture capital are stable. The effects on the exchange rates, tax revenues and monetary will bemoderated after 7, 5 and 4periods. Monetary policy shocks ,in the first half of the year, increased the value added of agriculture, while in the second half of the year had a depressing effect on the value added.

  4. Poverty and macroeconomic performance across space, race, and family structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gundersen, Craig; Ziliak, James P

    2004-02-01

    We examined the effects of macroeconomic performance and social policy on the extent and depth of poverty in America using state-level panel data from the 1981-2000 waves of the Current Population Survey. We found that a strong macroeconomy at both the state and national levels reduced both the number of families who were living in poverty and the severity of poverty. The magnitude and source of these antipoverty effects, however, were not uniform across family structures and racial groups or necessarily over time. While gains in the eradication of poverty, in general, were tempered by rising wage inequality, simulations indicated that female-headed families and families that were headed by black persons experienced substantial reductions in poverty in the 1990s largely because of the growth in median wages. An auxiliary time-series analysis suggests that the expansions in the federal Earned Income Tax Credit of the 1990s accounted for upward of 50% of the reduction in after-tax income deprivation.

  5. Emission Trading System in the SER Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. Macro-economic calculation by means of WorldScan; ETS in het SER Energieakkoord. Macro-economische doorrekening met WorldScan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brink, C. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2013-09-01

    The Dutch National Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth aims at strengthening the European system for emissions trading by a more strict emission ceiling. Also, the agreement aims at guarantee the competitiveness of global energy intensive businesses by adjusting the allocation method for emission rights. In the calculations for the energy agreement this is reflected in the adjustment of the ETS pricing path. In this memo the calculations with the equilibrium model WordlScan are described and presented [Dutch] Het Nationaal Energieakkoord voor Duurzame Groei zet in op een versterking van het Europees systeem voor emissiehandel (ETS) door aanscherpen van het emissieplafond. Verder wil het akkoord de concurrentiepositie van het mondiaal opererende energie-intensieve bedrijfsleven borgen door aanpassing van de allocatiemethode voor emissierechten. In de doorrekening van het Energieakkoord is deze inzet tot uitdrukking gebracht in een aanpassing van het ETS-prijspad. Deze notitie beschrijft de berekeningen met het algemeen evenwichtsmodel WorldScan waar deze aanpassing van het ETS-prijspad op is gebaseerd.

  6. Navigating catastrophes: Local but not global optimisation allows for macro-economic navigation of crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harré, Michael S.

    2013-02-01

    Two aspects of modern economic theory have dominated the recent discussion on the state of the global economy: Crashes in financial markets and whether or not traditional notions of economic equilibrium have any validity. We have all seen the consequences of market crashes: plummeting share prices, businesses collapsing and considerable uncertainty throughout the global economy. This seems contrary to what might be expected of a system in equilibrium where growth dominates the relatively minor fluctuations in prices. Recent work from within economics as well as by physicists, psychologists and computational scientists has significantly improved our understanding of the more complex aspects of these systems. With this interdisciplinary approach in mind, a behavioural economics model of local optimisation is introduced and three general properties are proven. The first is that under very specific conditions local optimisation leads to a conventional macro-economic notion of a global equilibrium. The second is that if both global optimisation and economic growth are required then under very mild assumptions market catastrophes are an unavoidable consequence. Third, if only local optimisation and economic growth are required then there is sufficient parametric freedom for macro-economic policy makers to steer an economy around catastrophes without overtly disrupting local optimisation.

  7. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MACROECONOMIC STABILISATION PENTAGON IN ROMANIA, CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionita Rodica Oana

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to achieve the pentagon analysis of macroeconomic stabilization in Romania, Czech Republic and Hungary in the period 2000 to 2013. It is a comparative analysis of the countries above mentioned in terms of the five key targets of economic policy, aiming the increasing, dynamic balance of each economy: economic growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, the budget deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, the current account deficit of the balance of payments as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The main objective of each economy which passes from planned to market economy should be to cease the economic decline, followed by the elimination of internal and external imbalances and only after that it should be followed by a continuous growth process. All the above mentioned indicators shall be represented on an ad hoc graduated scale. The period of research was chosen so as to obtain a view of the macroeconomic policies in transition from one period to another, in order to highlight the common as well as the main differences in the approach used for economy stabilization. Therefore I have computed the graphical analysis of macroeconomic stabilization pentagon for the three countries in the period 2000- 2013 to captures the dynamics of the economic policy mix. This benchmark tool shows the interdependence which exists between inflation and other important economic indicators. The events occurred in the period starting with 2007/2008 have raised the interest of economics researchers, highlighting the need for significant improvements in the surveillance of the economic and financial system. The global fragility generated concerns regarding the vulnerabilities and causes which led to the occurrence of such events, thus generating different measurement techniques. Despite all its advantages, this approach has a significant limitation consisting in the fact that it can only reveal a picture without surprising other

  8. Effects of macroeconomic conditions on health in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Sousa, Tanara Rosângela Vieira de

    2010-04-01

    To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenner's hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

  9. The Influence of Macroeconomic Trends on the Repayment of Loans by Households: Evidence from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Policy Reccomendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pašić Sanela

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the influence of macroeconomic indicators, namely GDP growth, the Consumer Price Index and the unemployment rate on the quality of loan repayments by households in the banking market of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Potential influence is observed over a period of fourteen years at the level of nonperforming household loans using regression analysis. The authors aim to determine whether macroeconomic forces actually influence loan repayment, and if so how and what can be done by banks to utilize this information in order to reduce future credit losses, and by the government to maintain the stability of the banking sector.

  10. A goal programming approach for a joint design of macroeconomic and environmental policies: a methodological proposal and an application to the Spanish economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Francisco J; Cardenete, M Alejandro; Romero, Carlos

    2009-05-01

    The economic policy needs to pay increasingly more attention to the environmental issues, which requires the development of methodologies able to incorporate environmental, as well as macroeconomic, goals in the design of public policies. Starting from this observation, this article proposes a methodology based upon a Simonian satisficing logic made operational with the help of goal programming (GP) models, to address the joint design of macroeconomic and environmental policies. The methodology is applied to the Spanish economy, where a joint policy is elicited, taking into consideration macroeconomic goals (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, public deficit) and environmental goals (CO(2), NO( x ) and SO( x ) emissions) within the context of a computable general equilibrium model. The results show how the government can "fine-tune" its policy according to different criteria using GP models. The resulting policies aggregate the environmental and the economic goals in different ways: maximum aggregate performance, maximum balance and a lexicographic hierarchy of the goals.

  11. Growth Prospects in Algeria

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2007-01-01

    This Selected Issues paper for Algeria analyzes the growth prospects of the Algerian economy. Drawing on the findings of the empirical growth literature, the paper combines growth accounting and cross-country growth regressions to examine the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors in driving economic growth. It reviews the past growth performance in Algeria and explores the reasons underpinning the recent pickup in nonhydrocarbon GDP growth. The paper also analyzes labor market devel...

  12. Good bye light touch? Macroeconomic resilience, banking regulation and institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Dalla Pellegrina

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available With the Great Crisis of 2008-2009 we have witnessed a relevant episode of macroeconomic vulnerability affecting many countries. To what extent such vulnerability has depended upon the design of light-touch (LT banking regulation? We observe an Unpleasant Nexus (UN, i.e. that macroeconomic volatility is associated in a robust and systematic way with LT banking regulation. But the UN does not operate in a vacuum. The link between vulnerability and LT banking regulation seems representative of a more general relationship between institutional design and macroeconomic performance. Our analysis shows how various types of institutions – public, political, legal, monetary – also seem to exert an unexpected effect on resilience.

  13. Macroeconomic Environment and Banking Sector Soundness in CEE Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Bilan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our paper is to empirically investigate the impact of the changes in macroeconomic environment on the financial soundness of the banking sector (as measured by bank Z-score in 11 Central and Eastern European countries, over the period 2000-2014. The results of our empirical study indicate that the financial soundness of the banking sector in our sample countries is heavily influenced by unemployment and inflation rates, foreign exchange rate, current account balance, public debt, and financial depth. Overall, our study underlines the crucial importance of ensuring a healthy and sound macroeconomic environment for the financial soundness of banks. Also, our research highlights that, out of all the macroeconomic factors analyzed, the dynamics of bank credit to the private sector is the main risk factor for the soundness of the banking sector in CEE countries, which calls for its rigorous monitoring.

  14. Measuring the optimal macroeconomic uncertainty index for Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdem Havvanur Feyza

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to calculate the optimal macroeconomic uncertainty index for the Turkish economy. The data used in the study are quarterly and cover the period 2002-2014. In this study the index is formed based on the small structural macroeconomic model. The study uses three important econometric processes. First, the model is estimated separately using generalized method of moments (GMM, seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR, and ordinary least squares (OLS. Secondly, the Broyden-Fletcher- Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS algorithm is applied as an optimization algorithm. The BFGS algorithm calibrates the model using GMM, SUR, and OLS parameter estimations of the benchmark parameters. Next, the index variables are weighted under the estimated optimal coefficients and, finally, are aggregated to produce the optimal macroeconomic uncertainty index.

  15. Modern macroeconomics: a review of the post 2008/2009 crisis debate

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the view that macroeconomics of the last 30 years is completely useless, we are of the view that there is need for serious rethinking about the future of macroeconomics. This is the only way forward, if the subject has anything to say about policy. Keywords: Financial Crisis, Modern Macroeconomics, Rational Expectations, ...

  16. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  17. Sustainability transitions in the perspective of ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    macroeconomics that addresses multiple crises by including insights from different, partly overlapping research communities. The main idea is to explore the usefulness of combining three different system perspectives in the study of sustainability transitions: socio-technical provision systems, distributional...... systems and macroeconomic systems. First, the theoretical concept of sustainability and the different system perspectives are outlined, and then the perspectives are brought together in the discussion of a specific topic that is key to sustainable transition: the need for considerable resources to invest...

  18. Macroeconomic and social change and popular demand for redistribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jæger, Mads Meier

    -demographic groups that are matched over time. I estimate fixed effect models and find that (1) changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect the demand for redistribution; (2) results are mostly consistent with the self-interest hypothesis claiming that agents demand more redistribution in economically hard......This paper tests the self-interest hypothesis arguing that changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect popular demand for redistribution. I analyze data from four waves of the European Social Survey and use a synthetic cohort design to generate pseudo panel data for socio...

  19. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Activity in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuya Ito

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the 1980s a large number of studies using a vector autoregressive (VAR model have been made on the macroeconomic effects of oil price changes. However, surprisingly few studies have so far focused on Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables in Russia using the VAR model. The time span covered by the series is from 1994:Q1 to 2009:Q3, giving 63 observations. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase (decrease in oil prices contributes to the depreciation (appreciation of the exchange rate by 0.17% in the long run, whereas it leads to a 0.46% GDP growth (decline. Likewise, we find that in the short run (8 quarters rising oil prices cause not only the GDP growth and the exchange rate depreciation, but also a marginal increase in inflation rate.

  20. Democracy, Autocracy and Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Iqbal, Nasir; Khan, Sardar Javaid Iqbal; Irfan, Muhammad

    2008-01-01

    Pakistan showed a healthy growth rate of 5.6 percent during the entire history and faced many ups and down in the economic growth due to dramatic changes in the political regimes. The literature shows mixed results regarding the impact of autocracy or democracy on economic growth. The aggregate growth of the economy under the autocracy remained better as compared to democratic period. Financial Indicators show consistent path through out the history of Pakistan. Different trade policies are d...

  1. Development assistance for health: should policy-makers worry about its macroeconomic impact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavagnero, Eleonora; Lane, Christopher; Evans, David B; Carrin, Guy

    2008-11-01

    Many low-income countries need to substantially increase expenditure to meet universal coverage goals for essential health services but, because they have very low-incomes, most will be unable to raise adequate funds exclusively from domestic sources in the short to medium term. Increased aid for health will be required. However, there has long been a concern that the rapid arrival of large amounts of foreign exchange in a country could lead to an increase in inflation and loss of international competitiveness, with an adverse impact on exports and economic growth, an economic phenomenon termed 'Dutch disease'. We review cross-country and country-level empirical studies and propose a simple framework to gauge the extent of macroeconomic risks. Of the 15 low-income countries that are increasing aid-financed health spending, 7 have high macroeconomic risks that may constrain the sustained expansion of spending. These conditions also apply in one-quarter of the 42 countries not presently increasing spending. Health authorities should be aware of the multiple risk factors at play, including factors that are health-sector specific and others that generally are not. They should also realize that there are effective means for mitigating the risk of Dutch disease associated with increasing development assistance for health. International partners also have an important role to play since more sustainable and predictable flows of donor funding will allow more productivity enhancing investment in physical and human capital, which will also contribute to ensuring there are few harmful macroeconomic effects of increases in aid.

  2. The dynamic relationship between Bursa Malaysia composite index and macroeconomic variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Rose, Farid Zamani Che; Rahman, Rosmanjawati Abd.

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates and analyzes the long run and short run relationships between Bursa Malaysia Composite index (KLCI) and nine macroeconomic variables in a VAR/VECM framework. After regression analysis seven out the nine macroeconomic variables are chosen for further analysis. The use of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique indicate that there are long run relationships between the seven macroeconomic variables and KLCI. Meanwhile, Granger causality test shows that bidirectional relationship between KLCI and oil price. Furthermore, after 12 months the shock on KLCI are explained by innovations of the seven macroeconomic variables. This indicate the close relationship between macroeconomic variables and KLCI.

  3. Macroeconomic policies and increasing social-health inequality in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaboli, Rouhollah; Seyedin, Seyed Hesam; Malmoon, Zainab

    2014-08-01

    Health is a complex phenomenon that can be studied from different approaches. Despite a growing research in the areas of Social Determinants of Health (SDH) and health equity, effects of macroeconomic policies on the social aspect of health are unknown in developing countries. This study aimed to determine the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing of the social-health inequality in Iran. This study was a mixed method research. The study population consisted of experts dealing with social determinants of health. A purposive, stratified and non-random sampling method was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to collect the data along with a multiple attribute decision-making method for the quantitative phase of the research in which the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was employed for prioritization. The NVivo and MATLAB softwares were used for data analysis. Seven main themes for the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing the social-health inequality were identified. The result of TOPSIS approved that the inflation and economic instability exert the greatest impact on social-health inequality, with an index of 0.710 and the government policy in paying the subsidies with a 0.291 index has the lowest impact on social-health inequality in the country. It is required to invest on the social determinants of health as a priority to reduce health inequality. Also, evaluating the extent to which the future macroeconomic policies impact the health of population is necessary.

  4. Three essays in applied macroeconomics and time series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abi Morshed, Alaa

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation revolves around topics in Applied Macroeconomics and Time series analysis. Generally speaking, we explore different forms of instability ranging from discrete sudden breaks to time varying parameter (TVP) models. In the second chapter, we study the time-varying impact of

  5. The changing macroeconomic response to stock market volatility shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Giuliodori, M.

    2012-01-01

    There is substantial consensus in the literature that positive uncertainty shocks predict a slowdown of economic activity. However, using US data since 1950 we show that the macroeconomic response pattern to stock market volatility shocks has changed substantially over time. The negative response of

  6. The changing macroeconomic response to stock market volatility shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.; Giuliodori, M.

    2011-01-01

    There is substantial consensus in the literature that positive uncertainty shocks predict a slowdown of economic activity. However, using U.S. data since 1950 we show that the macroeconomic response pattern to stock market volatility shocks has changed substantially over time. The negative response

  7. Macroeconomic Variables and Money Supply: Evidence from Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper reviews the effect and implication of selected Macroeconomic variables on Money supply (M2), using derived secondary data gotten from the Central Bank statistical Bulleting (2013). Coupled with the application of econometric technique such as; O.L.S., causality test and Co-integration of time series data to ...

  8. Impacts of macro-economic and goverment policies on Nigeria's ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examined the impacts of macro-economic and government expenditure policies on Nigeria's agriculture sector for the period, 1983-1996. Time-series data were used for the study. The period of review constituted the sample size. Data were collected on aggregate agricultural output, past real government ...

  9. Macroeconomic determinants of conditional stock-bond correlation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper analyzes effects of macroeconomic variables on cross- asset market linkages based on the stock-bond returns correlation. The study focuses on the dependence of stock-bond returns correlation on inflation and interest rate, and attempts to explain conditional stock-bond correlation using the argument that these ...

  10. Safeguarding the Health Sector in Times of Macroeconomic Instability

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The literature, while significant, indicates a need for stronger evidence on the impacts of reforms driven by macroeconomic instability, as well as for a better .... These six countries represent diverse cases in terms of population size, level of income, human development, and implementation of MAPs and health system ...

  11. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  12. MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND GREENFIELD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OF HOTEL BRANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jože Perić

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The powerful attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI is particularly important for further development of tourism. The strategically focused attraction of FDI in tourism has a much higher significance because of the multiple effects in relation to other segments of the economy. In this context, it is necessary to highlight the investment engagement and the presence of globally branded luxury hotels. The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment, the effects of greenfield FDI in tourism and, consequently, the presence of global hotel brands using the comparative analysis of the selected countries as the methodological basis of this study. The research results indicate that a favorable macroeconomic environment plays an important role in attracting foreign capital. Countries that have a more favorable macroeconomic environment attract more greenfield FDI, and provide a greater presence of global hotel brands, and thus greater competitiveness. Also, the political stability, the encouraging macroeconomic business conditions, the elimination of administrative and legislative barriers, the elimination of the country's image as a corrupt destination and tourism staff education at all levels are particularly important for FDI in tourism.

  13. A Macroeconomic Stabilization Game: Design, Development, and Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, J. Nicholas

    1983-01-01

    A computer game involving macroeconomic stabilization policy for use with college level students is described. Students are asked to take the part of government in manipulating tax rates, expenditures, and monetary policy in an attempt to influence employment and inflation in an open economy. (Author/RM)

  14. Speed, Algorithmic Trading, and Market Quality around Macroeconomic News Announcements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.L. Scholtus (Martin); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); B.P.M. Frijns (Bart)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper documents that speed is crucially important for high frequency trading strategies based on U.S. macroeconomic news releases. Using order level data of the highly liquid S&P500 ETF traded on NASDAQ from January 6, 2009, to December 12, 2011, we find that a delay of 300

  15. The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Algeria | Kori Yahia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Algeria. ... Keywords: Fiscal policy, Algerian economy, Methodology SVAR. ... Cependant, l'efficacité de la politique budgétaire en Algérie exige des autorités publiques d'intensifier les efforts, particulièrement en ce qui concerne la gestion des investissements publics. Mots clés ...

  16. Macroeconomic Variables and Money Supply: Evidence from Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    This paper reviews the effect and implication of selected Macroeconomic variables ... the economy, due to its stupendous importance as a change in its amount can have a ... student who intent to do more research in this area and thus serve as .... period of money expansion and high inflation in the decade of the 1990's was.

  17. World system theory and keynesian macroeconomics: towards an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A mechanistic and sometimes dogmatic interpretation of capitalism has kept world systems theory from attaining practical relevance for social movements which try to combine the democratic management of society with efficiency, including the market. By using Keynesian macroeconomics as a basis and integrating it into a ...

  18. Testing Non-Stationarity in Selected Macroeconomic Series from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study tested stationarity in a selected set of macroeconomic variables (some constructed) from Sudan over the period 1969 to 1998. Augmented Dickey Fuller tests were employed to test for presence of unit roots. The study found that unit roots existed in most variables, namely, private investment, public investment, real ...

  19. The Use of Narrative Interview in Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Peggy

    2010-01-01

    The author describes the design and implementation of one experiential learning assignment used in a principles of macroeconomics course. The learning exercise provides an active role for students and results in a relational experience that provides traditional undergraduate students with a frame of reference with which to interpret the impact of…

  20. Exploring Fiscal Policy at Zero Interest Rates in Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamurthy, Srikanth; Sedgley, Norman

    2013-01-01

    Since the financial meltdown of 2007, advanced macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the question of the appropriate fiscal policy when the nominal interest rate is close to or at zero percent. Such analysis is typically conducted with the aid of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The policy implications are,…

  1. Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

  2. Extending the Principles of Intensive Writing to Large Macroeconomics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Docherty, Peter; Tse, Harry; Forman, Ross; McKenzie, Jo

    2010-01-01

    The authors report on the design and implementation of a pilot program to extend the principles of intensive writing outlined by W. Lee Hansen (1998), Murray S. Simpson and Shireen E. Carroll (1999) and David Carless (2006) to large macroeconomics classes. The key aspect of this program was its collaborative nature, with staff from two specialist…

  3. Teaching with Data in the Principles of Macroeconomics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Hong

    2012-01-01

    Economic data play an important role in the study of macroeconomics. Teaching with data through interactive classes can engage students more fully in the learning process. Although the pedagogy of teaching with data has been widely applied in the undergraduate science classroom, its extension to the economics classroom is rarely discussed. This…

  4. Tests of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using Macroeconomic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examines Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), using four macroeconomic variables; namely, exchange rate, an index of industrial production, nominal money supply and price of oil within the context of the Nigerian stock market. Two methods were used in the analysis along with descriptive statistics. First, factor ...

  5. Exploring the Association between Macroeconomic Indicators and Dialysis Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Anneke; Stel, Vianda S.; Caskey, Fergus J.; Stengel, Benedicte; Elliott, Robert F.; Covic, Adrian; Geue, Claudia; Cusumano, Ana; Macleod, Alison M.; Jager, Kitty J.

    2012-01-01

    Background and objectives Mortality on dialysis varies greatly worldwide, with patient-level factors explaining only a small part of this variation. The aim of this study was to examine the association of national-level macroeconomic indicators with the mortality of incident dialysis populations and

  6. Private Investment And Macroeconomic Instability In The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In chapter three an empirical assessment of selected macro-economic aggregates was carried out where the ordinary least square regression method was applied. In the empirical analysis, the dependent variable is foreign direct investment and the expiratory variables are Total Government Expenditure, Gross domestic ...

  7. Test of arbitrage pricing theory using macroeconomic variables

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    The paper examines Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), using four macroeconomic variables; namely, exchange rate, an index of industrial production, nominal money supply and price of oil within the context of the Nigerian stock market. Two methods were used in the analysis along with descriptive statistics. First, factor.

  8. Per una concezione alternativa della politica macroeconomica. (On the character of macroeconomics, macroeconomic policy and econometrics: the need for another macroeconomic policy conception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.H. HOODGDUIN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Il lavoro sostiene che la "tradizionale" concezione politica macroeconomica che è emersa negli anni Cinquanta e Sessanta è stata giustamente contestata negli anni settanta , anche se sulla base di una convinzione non sufficientemente fondata nelle tendenze equilibratrici nelle economie di mercato . Secondo l'autore , la tradizionale concezione politica deve essere respinta per la sua idea sbagliata del carattere della macroeconomia che hanno portato ad una richiesta eccessivamente pretenzioso per le possibilità di macroeconomia e macroeconometrico costruzione di modelli nel campo della politica . Inoltre , si sostiene che la possibilità di carenze importanti nel funzionamento delle economie di mercato , non si può escludere sia su piano teorico o empiricoThe work argues that the “traditional” macroeconomic policy conception that emerged in the fifties and sixties was rightly challenged in the seventies, although on the basis of an insufficiently grounded belief in the equilibrating tendencies in market economies. According to the author, the traditional policy conception should be rejected for its misconception of the character of macroeconomics which led to an overly pretentious claim for the possibilities of macroeconomics and macroeconometric model-building in the field of policy. Furthermore, it is argued that the possibility of important deficiencies in the functioning of market economies cannot be precluded on either theoretical or empirical grounds. JEL: E60, C01

  9. Macroeconomics and gender | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Four GrOW projects study how women's economic empowerment can contribute to economic growth, and how economic growth can contribute to or hinder women's economic outcomes. The research ... Scholars and practitioners alike have promoted savings programs as a promising poverty alleviation strategy. However ...

  10. The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Hsing

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on the stock market index in South Africa. The exponential GARCH (Nelson, 1991 model is applied. It finds that South Africa’s stock market index is positively influenced by the growth rate of real GDP, the ratio of the money supply to GDP and the U.S. stock market index and negatively affected by the ratio of the government deficit to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, the domestic inflation rate, and the U.S. government bond yield. Therefore, to maintain a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue economic growth, fiscal prudence, a higher ratio of the money supply to GDP, a lower real interest rate, depreciation of the rand, and/or a lower inflation rate.

  11. The impact of the International Monetary Fund's macroeconomic policies on the AIDS pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Brook K

    2010-01-01

    Expansion of funding for HIV/AIDS, especially treatment, is under attack over concerns about cost effectiveness and financial constraints. The International Monetary Fund is deeply implicated in the history of the AIDS pandemic, the underlying weakness of health systems, and the ideology of constrained resources that underlies most attacks on AIDS funding. The IMF imposed structural violence on developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s through neoliberal and macroeconomic reforms that intensified individual and communal vulnerability to infection and dismantled already weak health systems. This same macroeconomic fundamentalism has recently been repackaged and renamed. IMF fundamentalist policies continue to prioritize low inflation, constricted government spending, robust foreign currency reserves, and prompt repayment of debt at the expense of investments in health and more expansionary, pro-growth and job-creation policies. Several recent surveys have concluded that the IMF reluctantly relaxed overly restrictive policy prescriptions in response to the global economic crisis, but this relaxation was temporary at best and only extended to countries previously acceding to IMF orthodoxy. AIDS activists are campaigning for billions of dollars to fulfill the promise of universal access. If IMF pressures persist, developing countries will continue to undermine the additionality of donor health financing by substituting donor for domestic financing, refusing to invest in recurrent costs for medicines and health workers, and neglecting needed investments in health infrastructure and health system strengthening.

  12. Macroeconomic ambiance in the function of encouraging innovations and entrepreneurship: Case study of the state of Israel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Daliborka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Subject matter of the paper includes the main factors necessary for the establishment of macroeconomic ambiance that fosters the development of innovations and entrepreneurship. The aim of the paper is to show that the role of the state (fiscal policy is not only important, but often decisive in the forming of macroeconomic conditions for self-initiative economic efforts of entrepreneurs and innovators. Therefore, the method used in this paper is the analysis of the fiscal policy, its instruments and measures as well as other activities in its domain, which contribute to the increase of entrepreneurship and innovations. Additionally, the method of case study is also used. Namely, since the State of Israel is worldly known as the 'start-up nation', the secondary research is conducted by analysis of the efforts of the fiscal policy and other activities in the State of Israel as a good practice for continuous improvement of macroeconomic ambience that encourages the ever increasing innovations and entrepreneurship undertakings. The main conclusion refers to the fact that empowering the innovations and entrepreneurship is necessary for the economic growth, and for the change of the economy's structure towards the more technically and technologically developed economic sectors.

  13. Health spending, macroeconomics and fiscal space in countries of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Indrani; Mondal, Swadhin

    2014-01-01

    The paper examines the issues around mobilization of resources for the 11 countries of the South-East Asia Region of the World Health Organization (WHO), by analysing their macroeconomic situation, health spending, fiscal space and other determinants of health. With the exception of a few, most of these countries have made fair progress on their own Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets of maternal mortality ratio and mortality rate in children aged under 5 years. However, the achieved targets have been very modest - with the exception of Thailand and Sri Lanka - indicating the continued need for additional efforts to improve these indicators. The paper discusses the need for investment, by looking at evidence on economic growth, the availability of fiscal space, and improvements in "macroeconomic-plus" factors like poverty, female literacy, governance and efficiency of the health sector. The analysis indicates that, overall, the countries of the WHO South-East Asia Region are collectively in a position to make the transition from low public spending to moderate or even high health spending, which is required, in turn, for transition from lowcoverage-high out-of-pocket spending (OOPS) to highcoverage-low OOPS. However, explicit prioritization for health within the overall government budget for low spenders would require political will and champions who can argue the case of the health sector. Additional innovative avenues of raising resources, such as earmarked taxes or a health levy can be considered in countries with good macroeconomic fundamentals. With the exception of Thailand, this is applicable for all the countries of the region. However, countries with adverse macroeconomic-plus factors, as well as inefficient health systems, need to be alert to the possibility of overinvesting - and thereby wasting - resources for modest health gains, making the challenge of increasing health sector spending alongside competing demands for spending on other areas of

  14. Common scaling behavior in finance and macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Petersen, A. M.; Njavro, M.; Stanley, H. E.

    2010-08-01

    In order to test whether scaling exists in finance at the world level, we test whether the average growth rates and volatility of market capitalization (MC) depend on the level of MC. We analyze the MC for 54 worldwide stock indices and 48 worldwide bond indices. We find that (i) the average growth rate of the MC and (ii) the standard deviation σ(r) of growth rates r decrease both with MC as power laws, with exponents αw = 0.28 ± 0.09 and βw = 0.12 ± 0.04. We define a stochastic process in order to model the scaling results we find for worldwide stock and bond indices. We establish a power-law relationship between the MC of a country's financial market and the gross domestic product (GDP) of the same country.

  15. Macroeconomic impacts of energy efficiency measures in the housing, business and transport sectors; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen von Energieeffizienzmassnahmen in den Bereichen Gebaeude, Unternehmen und Verkehr

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Luellmann, Arne; Beckmann, Ruth; Koehler, Jonathan [Fraunhofer-Institut System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    In August 2007 the German government agreed on the Integrated Energy and Climate Package (IECP) at Meseberg. This IECP-Macro study analyses the macroeconomic impacts of the IECP in Germany. The focus of analysis in IECP-Macro was on macroeconomic indicators, in particular on gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, investment and employment. This study links a bottom-up analysis of single policy measures with a macroeconomic analysis. The bottom-up impacts are fed into the ASTRA model, in which they trigger the macroeconomic impacts, e.g. a change of final demand in terms of investment or consumption. In total five scenarios have been analysed and have been compared with a reference scenario of the ASTRA model that has been aligned with the business-as-usual scenario of the project ''Politics Scenarios IV''. The basic conclusion of the analysis is that the economic stimulus of increased investment in climate policy stimulates economic growth in the short- and medium-term. Energy savings have the greatest effect to safeguard or even increase employment in the long run. (orig.)

  16. Terrorism and poverty: double trouble for macroeconomic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article investigates poverty and terrorism as allies in hindering economic growth in African countries. This study uses data for 22 African countries from 1970 to 2013 i.e. 44 years. Data for terrorism, poverty and national income is taken from GTD and WDI. Panel cointegration techniques of dynamic fixed effect, mean ...

  17. Page 1 ECONOMIC & POLICY REVIEW NESG MACROECONOMIC ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arising majorly from the foreign exchange crisis, which had severe impact on operating cost, inflation and ... Figure 1: Nigeria's Foreign Reserves and Parallel Market Exchange Rate. Exchange Rate. N = US$. Foreign Reserves. US$ Billion. Exchange Rate (Parallel Market) ... Figure 2: GDP Growth and Headline Inflation.

  18. Macroeconomic policies and economic democracy in neoliberal Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Bin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The objective of this paper is to investigate some of the forms of conduct of macroeconomic policies related to a substantive concept of democracy, characterized by popular participation - direct or through representatives - in decisions that unevenly affect the material well-being of the entire Brazilian population. Special attention is given to decisions about the country's public indebtedness in the years following the launching of the RealPlan. Empirical evidences show a limited democracy, revealed by the material inequality, which in turn reproduces political inequality and restricts real freedom. This is combined with the selective bureaucratic insulation of economic policy decisions, and the parliament's failure to deal with the macroeconomic agenda. The latter is thus left to the control of the executive branch's economic apparatus, which on one hand submits itself to substantial political influence from finance and, on the other hand, restricts popular participation in decisions on both fiscal and monetary policies.

  19. The Manufacturing Sector of Ghana: Are There Any Macroeconomic Disturbances?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Enu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the macroeconomic factors that influence performance of the manufacturing sector of Ghana using multivariate time series approach. It was found out that manufacturing production and real gross domestic product per capita were inversely related. In the long-run, macroeconomic variables such as private sector credit, labour and real exchange rate were unfavourable factors that weigh down the manufacturing sector while in the short-run, the past years consumer price index and real exchange rate were unfavourable to the manufacturing production. Finally, it is recommended that private sector credit to the manufacturing sector should be improved, training of labour force should be skilled and technical oriented and policies to stabilise the real exchange rate should be put in place to halt the down trending in manufacturing production.

  20. Macro-economic Aspects of the European Navigation Sytem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosterlinck, René

    2002-01-01

    GALILEO is a European civilian satellite navigation system intended to offer worldwide services. Besides an open signal free of charge the system will provide a number of additional signals available on certain conditions. These signals comprise in particular commercial signals with added value elements and a public regulated signal. A number of economic studies have been performed and come all to the conclusion that GALILEO will result in substantial macro-economic benefits in particular for Europe. Recent studies have also confirmed the return of investment with respect to the deployment and operations of the system. The paper will present a synthesis of the identified and expected macro-economic benefits as well as potential mechanisms for attracting private investors to invest either in the infrastructure or the value added services and receiver equipment.

  1. Engendering development strategies and macroeconomic policies: What's Sound and Sensible?

    OpenAIRE

    Berik, Günseli; van der Meulen Rodgers, Yana

    2007-01-01

    This paper takes stock of the project on engendering macroeconomic theory and policies. We present an overview of feminist arguments and methodologies by focusing on the feminist critiques of neoliberal policies, key debates on conceptualization and measurement of wellbeing, methodologies for gender-aware analysis and the empirical evidence on gendered effects of development strategies and their component policies. We examine the gendered impacts of neoliberal reforms by using two approaches:...

  2. Criticism of the Classical Theory of Macroeconomic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin K. Kumehov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Current approaches and methods of modeling of macroeconomic systems do not allow to generate research ideas that could be used in applications. This is largely due to the fact that the dominant economic schools and research directions are building their theories on misconceptions about the economic system as object modeling, and have no common methodological approaches in the design of macroeconomic models. All of them are focused on building a model aimed at establishing equilibrium parameters of supply and demand, production and consumption. At the same time as the underlying factors are not considered resource potential and the needs of society in material and other benefits. In addition, there is no unity in the choice of elements and mechanisms of interaction between them. Not installed, what are the criteria to determine the elements of the model: whether it is the institutions, whether the industry is whether the population, or banks, or classes, etc. From the methodological point of view, the design of the model all the most well-known authors extrapolated to the new models of the past state or past events. As a result, every time the model is ready by the time the situation changes, the last parameters underlying the model are losing relevance, so at best, the researcher may have to interpret the events and parameters that are not feasible in the future. In this paper, based on analysis of the works of famous authors, belonging to different schools and areas revealed weaknesses of their proposed macroeconomic models that do not allow you to use them to solve applied problems of economic development. A fundamentally new approaches and methods by which it is possible the construction of macroeconomic models that take into account the theoretical and applied aspects of modeling, as well as formulated the basic methodological requirements.

  3. Cointegration and Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Share Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Omer Yilmaz; Bener Gungor; Vedat Kaya

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate whether there is a relationship between some macroeconomic variables and share prices. In the analysis, covering the period of 1990: 01-2003: 12, variables of Istanbul Stock Exchange index, consumer price index, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, trade balance, and industrial production index were used. Least squares estimation method, Johansen-Jeselius cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition results produced by VE...

  4. Macroeconomic Reasons of Debts in Polish Health Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamila Szymańska

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of debts in polish health service. Author analyzes the macroeconomic reasons of this situation. As a main reasons are indicated: a specificity of the health service market, which leads to a inefficient allocation of health services, lack of reliable data on health care system, too low level of public expenditure on a health care, inappropriate allocation of public capital and a monopolistic position of the payer.

  5. On the macroeconomic causes of exchange rates volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Claudio Morana

    2007-01-01

    What are the causes of exchange rate volatility? When second moments implications of theories of exchange rates determination are considered, long-term fundamental linkages between macroeconomic and exchange rate volatility can be envisaged. Moreover, as the exchange rate is an important determinant of aggregate demand, bidirectional causality should be expected. The results of the paper support the above intuitions pointing to important linkages and trade-offs relating exchange rate and macr...

  6. Macroeconomic impact of the Solar Thermal Electricity Industry in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-10-15

    In the last three years, Solar Thermal Electricity (STE) in Spain has grown significantly. Its weight within the renewables mix is becoming relevant, and even more so, its impact on economics, society, the environment, and reducing energy dependence. This report was carried out by Deloitte for Protermosolar to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the main macroeconomic variables derived from the development of this technology in Spain from 2008 to 2010, and forecast its possible future impact.

  7. Essays in political economy and resource economic: A macroeconomic approach

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriguez Acosta, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of four chapters in Political Economy and Resource Economics from a macroeconomic perspective. This collection of works emphasizes the endogenous nature of institutions and their importance for economic development. The four chapters revolve around two central questions: 1. Why do inefficient institutions emerge and persist over time? And, 2. What are the dynamic consequences of inefficient institutions? The first two chapters investigate these two central questions...

  8. On the Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Illegal Immigration

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xiangbo

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of illegal immigration on the native born within a dynamic general equilibrium framework with labor market frictions. A key feature of the model is that job competition is allowed for between domestic workers and illegal immigrants. We calibrate the model to match some key statistics of the postwar U.S. economy. The model predicts that in the long run illegal immigration is a boon, but the employment opportunities of domestic worke...

  9. Families in the context of macroeconomic crises: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Gabriela; Cunha, Diana; Crespo, Carla; Relvas, Ana Paula

    2016-09-01

    The present study is a systematic review of empirical literature from the last 35 years on families' responses to economic distress in the context of macroeconomic crises. Thirty-nine studies published between 1983 and 2015 in 12 countries were identified, resulting in 3 main findings. First, economic distress was associated with negative changes in family dynamics, specifically couple relationships and parenting. Second, protective factors were found to buffer the adverse effects of economic distress on family and individual outcomes. Third, the results suggest that individual responses to macroeconomic crises may be moderated by sex. Implications for future research encompass using validated assessment instruments, including participants beyond 2-parent families with adolescent children and conducting both longitudinal and qualitative studies that focus on the processes and meanings of adaptation within this risk context. Conclusions highlighted the need to assist families dealing with macroeconomic crises' demands, encouraging the development and validation of macrosystemic intervention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Demographics and macroeconomic effects in aesthetic surgery in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, C O; Ho-Asjoe, M; Hittinger, R; Nishikawa, H; Waterhouse, N; Coghlan, B; Jones, B

    2004-09-01

    Media interest in aesthetic surgery is substantial and suggestions of demographic changes such as reductions in age or an increase in the number of male patients are common. In spite of this, there is no peer reviewed literature reporting demographics of a contemporary large patient cohort or of the effect of macroeconomic indicators on aesthetic surgery in the UK. In this study, computer records 13006 patients presenting between 1998 and the first quarter of 2003 at a significant aesthetic surgery centre were analysed for procedures undergone, patient age and sex. Male to female ratios for each procedure were calculated and a comparison was made between unit activity and macroeconomic indicators. The results showed that there has been no significant demographic change in the procedures studied with patient age and male to female ratio remaining constant throughout the period studied for each procedure. Comparison with macroeconomic indicators suggested increasing demand for aesthetic surgery in spite of a global recession. In conclusion, media reports of large scale demographic shifts in aesthetic surgery patients are exaggerated. The stability of unit activity in spite of falling national economic indicators suggested that some units in the UK might be relatively immune to economic vagaries. The implications for training are discussed.

  11. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

    OpenAIRE

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2008-01-01

    Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization...

  12. THE ROLE OF SAVINGS RATE IN DEEPENING MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES IN CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarlea Mihaela

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that China is a growing power and its impressive economic indicators have been the subject of numerous studies along the years. China’s impressive economics growth in the years 2000 based on one hand by an expansionary monetary policy, on other hand by promoting export growth had also brought into discussion another factor: that of the high savings rate. This article brings into light China’s high savings rate -household, corporate and governmental- each with its role played in the entire equation of China’s growth. There have been a lot of studies concentrating on this relationship between savings rate and economic growth. It appears that, in the case of China there is a positive relationship between high savings and high economic growth at least on the short run. This is due to the national savings rate which contributed to current account surplus that facilitated outflow and inflow of capital. Domestic investments and foreign growth had contributed to rapid economic growth despite the low level of consumption. If we add here the low demand for imported goods and the growth of households saving rate in the last year we have an image of deep macroeconomic imbalances. Furthermore, if we add to this analysis the idea of an external saving rate that proved to grow quicker than the world capacity to absorb this flows we have a vivid image of an empire as „rich country, poor population”. This high savings rate in the long run will deepen macroeconomic imbalances. As a spiral this would have to accelerate reforms in the field of pensions, healthcare, social security. On top they would have to encourage the development of the banking system in order to create an image of a powerful country also in the long run. With these internal reforms the savings rate for households will encourage consumption and a normal level of savings, for corporations it will boost investments and for government it will lead to a balance account

  13. The influence of main macroeconomic indicators on banking sector liquidity in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Račić Željko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The banking sector in Serbia can be characterized as a very liquid one. Main reasons for the high liquidity are the decrease in credit lending activity of banks and increase of the share of NPLs (i.e. non-performing loans in the total number of loans in the post-crisis period. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the initial impact of the global economic crisis as well as the influence of main macroeconomic indicators of the banking sector liquidity. The research results support the thesis that the growth of the GDP, the decline in unemployment, reduction of the balance of payments deficit and reduction of inflation have an impact on reducing liquidity. The general conclusion is that the Republic of Serbia needs to implement economic measures in this direction. This would take the liquidity of the sector to an optimum level.

  14. Use of the macroeconomic models in the analysis of the balance value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manole Tatiana

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the problem of using the macroeconomic models to analyze the balance value. Actually, the analyses are performed under the IS-LM model. Since the balance value depends on the balance of goods and services market and the money market, the authors have studied the possibilities of balance on these two markets in terms of conditions from the Republic of Moldova. There is investigated the ratio of monetary mass and GDP under the law of equality of the amount of money in circulation. The case of the Republic of Moldova indicates a great increase of the monetary mass related to the GDP growth, fact that produces an inflationary effect. The interest rate is a key indicator in analyzing the balance value.

  15. THE MACROECONOMIC EVOLUTIONS IN THE ROMANIA DEVELOPMENT REGIONS IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC - FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIANA BĂLAN

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Disparities between the regions of Romania as within them were both in the run-up to accession of Romania to the European Union as well as after 1 January 2007. This phenomenon has gained momentum due to the impact of economic restructuring, especially in the areas of monoindustriale, whose population has been affected by unemployment as a result of the closure of unprofitable State enterprises. The impact of the financial and economic crisis on economic growth at the level of the eight development regions of Romania did not produce modifications in their rankings after the index of regional disparity, even though for some, its value increased compared to 2006 or 2008. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the evolution of macroeconomic indicators in the development regions of Romania in the period 2006-2011.

  16. Macroeconomic adjustment, food availability and nutrition status in Nigeria. A look at the 1990s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igbedioh, S O

    1990-12-01

    Faced with balance of payment problems, declining commodity prices, and a corresponding reduction in foreign exchange earnings, Nigeria implemented a structural adjustment program in 1986. This step was taken in response to encouragement from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and was aimed to accomplish the following: find the true value of the official currency; overcome public sector inefficiency through improved public expenditure and parastatal rationalization; reschedule medium- and long-term debt to relieve debt burden; and encourage net foreign capital inflow while limiting foreign loans. Implementing and adhering to these macroeconomic adjustment policies has brought unprecedented inflation, lower real earnings, and increased malnutrition among lower income sectors of the population. The poor have suffered diminishing access to nutritious foods. Conscribed access to food and compromised nutritional status will most likely persist into the 1990s unless corrective policies are adopted. Appropriate policy would aim to increase the poor's access to food and limit population growth.

  17. USE OF THE MACROECONOMIC MODELS IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE BALANCE VALUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana MANOLE

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the problem of using the macroeconomic models to analyze the balance value. Actually, the analyses are performed under the IS-LM model. Since the balance value depends on the balance of goods and services market and the money market, the authors have studied the possibilities of balance on these two markets in terms of conditions from the Republic of Moldova. There is investigated the ratio of monetary mass and GDP under the law of equality of the amount of money in circulation. The case of the Republic of Moldova indicates a great increase of the monetary mass related to the GDP growth, fact that produces an inflationary effect. The interest rate is a key indicator in analyzing the balance value.

  18. Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Lengnick, Matthias; Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

    2010-01-01

    We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets and a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with bounded rationality via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of business cycles and stock price bubbles. We show that market sentiments exert important influence on the macroeconomy. They introduce high volatility into impulse-response functions of macroeconomic variables and thus make the effect of a given shock hard t...

  19. Growth and Adjustment in East Asia and Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    De Gregorio, José; Lee, Jong-Wha

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the experience of growth performance and macroeconomic adjustment between East Asia and Latin America from 1970 to 2000. We find that the difference in growth performance between two regions can largely be attributed to the differences in fundamental growth factors such as investment rate, human resources, fertility, institutional quality, macroeconomic stability and the degree of trade openness. We also discuss the role of quality of education and differences in inequalit...

  20. ECONOMICAL CRISIS IN ROMANIA – A CONSEQUENCE OF THE WRONG MIX OF MACRO-ECONOMICAL POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena DUDUIALĂ POPESCU

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The economical crisis Romania starts to cross is mainly an internal crisis determined by the wrong mix of macro-economical policies established in the last years. Economic growth proves to be unhealthy; that is because we have had a growth based on consumption financed on debt during these years. Private consumption was excessive, but the population should not be blamed: all the macro-economical measures have been pro-cyclic, stimulating consumption; and the most damaging of the all, the unique rate, is still protected by its initiators who do not want to admit they were wrong. The unique rate has stimulated the consumption and we have nowadays the first crisis of overconsumption in Romania. The main cause is the excessive consumption on debt. The population cannot be blamed, but in the future it can be better informed and surely more precautious regarding the expectations for the own incomes. In exchange, the government may be criticized because it made a monumental strategic mistake: in a time of economical increase, it consumed all this increase and it indebted itself additionally. The budgetary deficit increased from 1,3% of PIB in 2008 to 2,6% last year and probably over 3% this year. Since the government has got to borrow hundreds of million euro with the date of payment of one week, the only logical conclusion is that there are no money for the current expenditures or for the ones already budgeted on the current year. It is absolutely inacceptable in a time of high economical increase for the budgetary deficit to increase, in consequence, the costs regarding its financing on a short term.

  1. Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, Danilo J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Poyer, David A. [Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and

  2. Modeling Relationships among Securitized Property Markets, Stock Markets, and Macroeconomic Variables

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nafeesa Yunus

    2012-01-01

      This paper investigates the dynamic interactions among securitized property markets, stock markets, and key macroeconomic factors for ten developed nations throughout North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia...

  3. A Macroeconomic Perspective on Crisis Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Veronica ALEXA

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the manner in which advanced and emerging countries are able to recover from the most acute phase of the 2008 International Financial Crisis. Due to sound fiscal and monetary policies, certain emerging economies (especially emerging Asia are expected to account for almost half of the global economic growth in the upcoming period. The progress made by the reformation of the fiscal sector must become a top priority both for emerging and developed economies. Developed and underdeveloped economies alike still have great difficulties to face, as the financial crisis has magnified any encountered initial imbalance, slowing down a possible recovery. Nonetheless they still play in important part in boosting demand and trade in the years to come.

  4. THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF ROMANIAN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru FÎNTÎNERU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is an important driver of global economic system, playing a leading role both in the economic life andsocial action contributing to the tourism potential of each individual country and economic growth, improvingliving conditions. Romania has a huge tourism potential represented by the natural environment and naturalresources, human resources, customs and traditions, a potential which unfortunately is not used to the wholes value.The paper aimed to analyze the evolution of Romanian tourism receipts in GDP, by share, positioning on the place 151 and by evolution of tourism receipts per capita in Romania compared to World average, positioning Romaniaon the place 103 out from 172 countries during the time 2003-2011, according to the information’s provided by Data World Bank.

  5. Budget Deficits Effects on Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    L.C.Risti; C. Nicolaescu; D.Tăgăduan

    2013-01-01

    The budget deficit can not be analyzed autarchically, as it affects all the macroeconomic processes and, is itself influenced by all other macroeconomic indicators. Most analyses and studies on public finance and budget balance measure the impact that budgetary deficits accumulation has on economy. Therefore, the present paper aims at following and analyzing the mutual impact between budget deficit and another economic macro indicator, namely the economic growth.

  6. Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolden, Herbert J A; van Bodegom, David; van den Hout, Wilbert B; Westendorp, Rudi G J

    2014-01-01

    As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age, it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counter-intuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association, but cannot explain the association for the older, retired population. Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40-44 years) and older people (70-74 years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950-2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data, accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models. Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality, especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average, for every 1% increase in gross domestic product, mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p<0.001) and 0.38% for 40-year-old to 44-year-old men (p<0.001). The effect for women is 0.18% for 70-year-olds to 74-year-olds (p=0.012) and 0.15% for 40-year-olds to 44-year-olds (p=0.118). In developed countries, mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy, and decrease during downward cycles. This effect is similar for the older and middle-aged population. Traditional explanations as work-stress and traffic accidents cannot explain our findings. Lower levels of social support and informal care by the working population during good economic times can play an important role, but this remains to be formally investigated.

  7. Macro-economic model of aggregate market in the Albanian economy, and relevant problems thereto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Alqi Naqellari

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses concrete data obtained on the Albanian economy to analyse the positions of aggregate demand/supply curves in the economy. As examples from micro-economics, we have taken the models of Ŵalras and Marshall, to view the possibilities of achieving an economic equilibrium. Data available from the Albanian economy, and from the global economic trends generally, have shown that the positions of curves are such, with differences in their inclination, while the classic position of the aggregate demand curve, with a negative trend, studied in the macro-economic theory, is unique. Therefore, our objective is to try and show the scholars of the field that the macro-economic problems must be viewed in this light, and not through the static scheme used so far. The equilibrium is met not only when the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves are met, meaning when the aggregate expenditure are equal to aggregate production, but it exists at every moment, independently of whether it is consistent or not, while the pricing trends continue to increase, similar to two other aggregates. The understanding of such a situation should give the possibility to governments and other policy-making institutions to review their positions and relations with monetary and fiscal indicators, in a view of making the organic connection, and increasing their working effectiveness. The paper aims to show how one can define the relation between monetary and fiscal policies necessary to see their role and relevance in the economic growth of a country.

  8. Exploring the association between macroeconomic indicators and dialysis mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Anneke; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Stengel, Benedicte; Elliott, Robert F; Covic, Adrian; Geue, Claudia; Cusumano, Ana; Macleod, Alison M; Jager, Kitty J

    2012-10-01

    Mortality on dialysis varies greatly worldwide, with patient-level factors explaining only a small part of this variation. The aim of this study was to examine the association of national-level macroeconomic indicators with the mortality of incident dialysis populations and explore potential explanations through renal service indicators, incidence of dialysis, and characteristics of the dialysis population. Aggregated unadjusted survival probabilities were obtained from 22 renal registries worldwide for patients starting dialysis in 2003-2005. General population age and health, macroeconomic indices, and renal service organization data were collected from secondary sources and questionnaires. Linear modeling with log-log transformation of the outcome variable was applied to establish factors associated with survival on dialysis. Two-year survival on dialysis ranged from 62.3% in Iceland to 89.8% in Romania. A higher gross domestic product per capita (hazard ratio=1.02 per 1000 US dollar increase), a higher percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare (1.10 per percent increase), and a higher intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population (i.e., general population-derived mortality risk of the dialysis population in that country standardized for age and sex; hazard ratio=1.04 per death per 10,000 person years) were associated with a higher mortality of the dialysis population. The incidence of dialysis and renal service indicators were not associated with mortality on dialysis. Macroeconomic factors and the intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population are associated with international differences in the mortality on dialysis. Renal service organizational factors and incidence of dialysis seem less important.

  9. Exploring the Association between Macroeconomic Indicators and Dialysis Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stel, Vianda S.; Caskey, Fergus J.; Stengel, Benedicte; Elliott, Robert F.; Covic, Adrian; Geue, Claudia; Cusumano, Ana; MacLeod, Alison M.; Jager, Kitty J.

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives Mortality on dialysis varies greatly worldwide, with patient-level factors explaining only a small part of this variation. The aim of this study was to examine the association of national-level macroeconomic indicators with the mortality of incident dialysis populations and explore potential explanations through renal service indicators, incidence of dialysis, and characteristics of the dialysis population. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Aggregated unadjusted survival probabilities were obtained from 22 renal registries worldwide for patients starting dialysis in 2003–2005. General population age and health, macroeconomic indices, and renal service organization data were collected from secondary sources and questionnaires. Linear modeling with log–log transformation of the outcome variable was applied to establish factors associated with survival on dialysis. Results Two-year survival on dialysis ranged from 62.3% in Iceland to 89.8% in Romania. A higher gross domestic product per capita (hazard ratio=1.02 per 1000 US dollar increase), a higher percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare (1.10 per percent increase), and a higher intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population (i.e., general population-derived mortality risk of the dialysis population in that country standardized for age and sex; hazard ratio=1.04 per death per 10,000 person years) were associated with a higher mortality of the dialysis population. The incidence of dialysis and renal service indicators were not associated with mortality on dialysis. Conclusions Macroeconomic factors and the intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population are associated with international differences in the mortality on dialysis. Renal service organizational factors and incidence of dialysis seem less important. PMID:22837275

  10. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Ehsan

    2014-06-01

    The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. The Impact of Macroeconomic Changes to the European Currency Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia LUPU

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper consists in the analysis of the reaction of the FX market with respect to announcements concerning new macroeconomic data. The analysis consists in the study of the volatility of changes for a set of currency pairs that include the Euro at the moment of these announcements. A measure of the speed with which new information is included in prices is provided by means of a simple GARCH model fitted at each release. We found evidence that the currencies are immediately reacting to this new information.

  12. Commercial Banks Liquidity in Pakistan: Firm Specific and Macroeconomic Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Farhan Malik; Amir Rafique

    2013-01-01

    Achieving the optimum level of liquidity is crucial for every bank. A lot of factors have been examined by number of researchers in this area. This study examines the bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of commercial bank’s liquidity in Pakistan. The sample of the study consists of 26 Pakistani commercial banks. The study period consists of 5 years [2007 to 2011] which also covers the period of the Asian financial crisis 2008. Bank’s liquidity is measured in two ways; one is cash and...

  13. The Birth of the Regulated Company in the Macroeconomic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru BODISLAV

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This research analyzes the mode of evolution of an economy at macroeconomic level, backward-pyramidal evolution from the capitalism structure, the appearance of the free enterprise and the corporate form of business organizations in our free market based system, at microeconomic level.The purpose of this paper is to enter the understanding of the specificities of the plurality of facets of the governance process. The target of this research paper are privately owned companies, but held publicly (by social parts owners or shareholders and expressed through the state – corporation relation with its geo-social-political-economic influences.

  14. Cosmetic surgery in times of recession: macroeconomics for plastic surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Lloyd M

    2002-10-01

    Periods of economic downturn place special demands on the plastic surgeon whose practice involves a large amount of cosmetic surgery. When determining strategy during difficult economic times, it is useful to understand the macroeconomic background of these downturns and to draw lessons from businesses in other service industries. Business cycles and monetary policy determine the overall environment in which plastic surgery is practiced. Plastic surgeons can take both defensive and proactive steps to maintain their profits during recessions and to prepare for the inevitable upturn. Care should also be taken when selecting pricing strategy during economic slowdowns.

  15. MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF BAD LOANS IN BALTIC COUNTRIES AND ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana DONATH

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2008–09 global crisis raised debates concerning the determinants of financial vulnerability. Among these, bad loans have been identified as significantly influencing financial imbalances. After a decade in which borrowing has constantly grown mainly because of the deregulation of financial markets, the crisis highlighted the importance of an effective credit risk management. The purpose of the paper is to study the evolution of bad loans ratio in relation with selected macroeconomic indicators in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and Romania.

  16. Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land: a case study of Argentina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Tabeau, A.; Hilbert, J.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural

  17. Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land—A case study of Argentina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, Birka; Smeets, E.; Tabeau, Andrzej; Hilbert, Jorge; Faaij, André

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural

  18. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  19. Teaching Macroeconomics after the Crisis: A Survey among Undergraduate Instructors in Europe and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gärtner, Manfred; Griesbach, Björn; Jung, Florian

    2013-01-01

    The Great Recession raised questions of what and how macroeconomists teach at academic institutions around the globe, and what changes in the macroeconomics curriculum should be made. The authors conducted a survey of undergraduate macroeconomics instructors affiliated with colleges and universities in Europe and the United States at the end of…

  20. ANALYSIS MODEL ON THE RELATION BETWEEN MACROECONOMICAL VARIABLE TENDENCIES AND COMERCIAL BANK’S CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benyovszki Anamaria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to apply a macroeconomic credit risk model which links a set of macroeconomic factors and industry-specific corporate sector default rates using Romanian data over the time period from 2002:2 to 2008:2. Using the modeled and

  1. Modern macroeconomics: a review of the post 2008/2009 crisis debate

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This is the source of prediction failures in modern macroeconomics. Robert Solow of MIT entered the debate and criticized modern macroeconomics in his prepared statement on July 2010 on the theme “Building a. Science of Economics for the Real World” presented to the House committee on. Science and Technology.

  2. Importance of the macroeconomic variables for variance prediction: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Hou, Ai Jun; Javed, Farrukh

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long...

  3. Economies: An Open Access Journal for the Field of Development Macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralf Fendel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Economies (ISSN 2227-7099 is a new international, peer-reviewed open access journal for the academic fields of development economics and macroeconomics. While the latter seems to be clearly defined, development economics is not, because it is related to nearly all traditional economic sub-disciplines such as macroeconomics, international trade and finance, as well as microeconomics and public finance. Typically, academic field journals of development economics cover all those economic sub-disciplines. Economies instead focuses mainly on the macroeconomic perspective of economic development and it intends to publish academic research that is of strong macroeconomic policy relevance. In general, contributions in Economies should foster understanding of the macroeconomic process of economic development, with the process of development not exclusively being reserved to what we typically call developing countries. Also, the group of developed economies is still developing in the sense of improving their living standards further.

  4. The impact of energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators on environmental pollution: evidence from Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

    2017-03-01

    In this study, the impact of energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators on environmental pollution from 1971 to 2011 is investigated using the statistically inspired modification of partial least squares (SIMPLS) regression model. There was evidence of a linear relationship between energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators and carbon dioxide emissions. Evidence from the SIMPLS regression shows that a 1% increase in crop production index will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.71%. Economic growth increased by 1% will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.46%, which means that an increase in Ghana's economic growth may lead to a reduction in environmental pollution. The increase in electricity production from hydroelectric sources by 1% will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.30%; thus, increasing renewable energy sources in Ghana's energy portfolio will help mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. Increasing enteric emissions by 1% will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 4.22%, and a 1% increase in the nitrogen content of manure management will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 6.69%. The SIMPLS regression forecasting exhibited a 5% MAPE from the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions.

  5. Macroeconomic conditions and health: Inspecting the transmission mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombo, Emilio; Rotondi, Valentina; Stanca, Luca

    2017-11-23

    We study the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and self-reported health in a large sample of Italian individuals, focusing on the mediating role played by health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, eating habits) and economic stress. Our findings indicate that, overall, higher local unemployment is negatively related to individuals' health conditions. A one percentage point increase in the province-level unemployment rate is associated with a significant increase in the probability of experiencing diabetes (0.03 percentage points), infarction (0.01), ulcer (0.06), cirrhosis (0.01) and nervous disorders (0.07), with a time lag that differs across individual health conditions. Employment status and educational level play a significant role as moderators of these relationships. Eating habits, in addition to economic stress, play a key role as mediators, by enhancing the negative relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health outcomes, while physical exercise is found to play a dampening role. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  7. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Mello da Silva

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI, industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa. The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988 causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988 long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  8. Bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty: Evidence from Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansor H. Ibrahim

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the interrelations between bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty for an emerging economy, Malaysia. Adopting time series techniques of cointegration, causality and vector autoregressions (VARs, we arrive at the following main results. We note long run positive relations between real output and both real bank credits and real stock prices. However, with slow adjustment of real output in responses to credit expansion or stock price increase and weak exogeneity of the latter two variables, both credits and stock prices can be persistently higher than their fundamental values. The phenomenon can be detrimental since it heightens market uncertainty. Our results suggest that heightened market uncertainty is negatively related to output in the long run and, on the basis of dynamics analysis, it is likely to depress real output, real credit and real stock prices. At the same time, we note significant dynamic impacts of interest rate shocks on other variables. Taken together, these results have important implications for macroeconomic performance and stability for the case of Malaysia.

  9. The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2012-01-01

    Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or

  10. Why Models Matter: The Making and Unmaking of Governability in Macroeconomic Discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Braun

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Like other branches of economic theory, macroeconomics has the potential not only to represent but also to perform the economy. This performative potential is greatest when a ‘governability paradigm’ is established within macroeconomic discourse – that is, when theory has produced both a sense of understanding and practical control over the economy. In such periods, macroeconomic models become embedded in the ideational infrastructure of the economy, making possible both the interpretation of past data and the formation of expectations regarding the future. Viewing macroeconomics as a quest for governability, this article traces the formation of two distinct governability paradigms: the neoclassical synthesis paradigm of the post-war era, and the new neoclassical synthesis paradigm of the 1990s and 2000s. It shows how in both cases macroeconomic discourse went through three phases: first, the formulation of a basic vision of the economy; second, the formalisation and operationalisation of this vision; and third, the development of methods to measure, estimate, and predict associated variables. These shifts in macroeconomics and its models matter because the establishment of a governability paradigm tends to produce overconfidence not only among economists and policymakers, but also among market actors. Macroeconomic discourse itself therefore contributes to the cycles of boom and bust in modern capitalist economies.

  11. Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Ferhat I.

    My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

  12. A study on macroeconomic cost of CCS in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Whan; Kim, Yoon Kyung

    2015-04-01

    CCS is an important measure for mitigating the problem of World Climate Change and already several projects are entered the step of commercialization. The benefits of CCS implementation ultimately depends on the alleviation level of CO2 on earth because it is caused by the mitigation of the World Climate Change problem. Thus it is possible not to coincide at same time between starting the CCS and getting the benefits. Considering the high costs of CCS, the time mismatch between imposing the costs and getting the benefits is apt to impose some heavy burden on the individual national economy. For this reason, at the political decision-making, the policy makers should consider the macroeconomic effects. Meanwhile, Korean electricity market's supply side is comprised of competitive production and a sole distributor(public enterprise) and then electricity is supplied by a single price structure(administered pricing). Under this condition, if CCS is introduced to power setor, electric charges must be increased and production costs will go high. High production costs will have unfavourable effects on disposable income, price level, purchasing power and so on. In order to minimize these effects, policy makers have to consider the economic effects of introducing CCS. This study estimates the microscopic cost of CCS using ICCSEM 2.0 methodology made by CO2CRC and after that, the macroeconomic effects of introducing CCS is estimated on the basis of microscopic cost estimating results. The macroeconomic effects of CCS applied to Power Generation sector are estimated using macroeconometrics model and Input-Output analysis. A macroeconometrics model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the national economy. This model is usually applied to examine the dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, the level of prices and so forth. Introducing

  13. Aspectos macroeconómicos del plan nacional de desarrollo cambio para construir la paz Macroeconomic aspects of the development plan change to reach peace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rhenals M. Remberto

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available En el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo "Cambio para construir la Paz" se presenta una plitica de estabilizacion que pretende establecer los equlibrios macroeconomicos y elevar el ritmo de crecimiento de la economia colombiana. Este articulo analiza la propuesta de politica economica del plan, incluida en la seccion "Macroeconomia, crecimiento y empleo". En particular se estudia la estrategia de estabilizacion y crecmiento de la economia. Las principales conclusiones de nuestro analisis son: a el ajuste fiscal propuesto es poco efectivo porque no reduce de forma importante el gasto corriente. Esto puede afectar el crecimiento normal de la economia porque se reduce la inversion publica y no se reasignan fondos hacia areas prioritarias como la formacion de capital humano y la investigacion en ciencia y tecnologia; y b el programa macroecnomico tiene problemas de consistencia. Segun nuestras estimaciones, el lento crecimiento del ahorro domestico seria insuficiente para mantener un crecimiento sostenido del Pib.The economic and social planning project in Colombia, 'Change to reach peace' presents mainly a stabilization policy that intends to restore macroeconomic equilibrium and also pretends to increase the economic growth in the presidential period of 1998-2002. This article analyses the economic policy proposal included in the section "Macroeconomics,growth and employment". More precisely it is concerned in the stabilization and growth strategy. Ourmain conclusions are: a fiscal adjustment is not effective, becauseit does not reduce government consumption. This situation can affect potential economic growth due to a decrease in public investment and there will not be a reallocation of resources for human capital and investment in research and development; b macroeconomic plan is not consistent. Based on our estimations, slow growth of domestic saving could not be enough to maintain a sustainable process of economic growth.

  14. Developments in Kosovo’s economy analysed on a macroeconomic point of view

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Myrvete Badivuku - Pantina

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite that in the last years, Kosovo has experienced economic growth, it still remains the least developed country in Europe. Kosovo’s economy is still fragile. During 2009 Kosovo’s economy peaked at 4.0% while during 2010, economic growth achieved 4.6%, while the GDP was estimated to be 4.2 Billion Euros. During 2009, Kosovo’s economy was characterised by deflation (-2.4%, during 2010 it saw a raise in inflation, while consumer price index was rated at 3.5%. There is still a high rate of unemployment in the labour market, about 45%, and it remains a challenge for the country’s economy. During 2009, money deposited from Kosovars living abroad experienced a decline of 5.6%, where during 2010 these deposits marked a slight improvement. Trading imbalances since the post-war period have continued in 2010, which has created a high level of dependence of commercial deficit (deficit constitutes about 45% of the GDP. The purpose of this study is to give a clear view of the macroeconomic situation of Kosovo through a comprehensive analysis and critical approach towards developments so far, in order to improve the economic state in the future.

  15. A study on the effect of macroeconomics instability index on private investment in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Saki

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we perform an empirical study to investigate the impact of economical stability on the amount of investment coming from the private sector. We calculate macroeconomics instability index (MIX using the existing methods in the literature. We have also used Glezakos (1973 method [Glezakos,C.(1973. Export instability and economic growth: A statistical verification. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21(3, 670-678.], which considers long-term deviation of real values as instability index. Therefore, we use four variables of inflation rate (TINF, the ratio of budget deficit on growth domestic product (GDP (TBD, foreign debt on GDP (TFD and the ratio of actual currency rate on nominate currency (TFD. The preliminary results show that the short-term changes on LNIP with one lag and LNIV have positive impact on LNIP. In addition, any short term changes on LNMII has negative and meaningful impact on LNIP and approximately 0.67 percent of difference between the actual and long term are discounted in each period. The results indicate that instability index has negative effect even in short term on Iran's industry. This shows the relevant importance of instability on economy.

  16. Firm, Country and Macroeconomic Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from Turkish Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuri Baltacı

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the significance of firm-specific, country, and macroeconomic factors in explaining variation in leverage using a sample of banks from Turkish banking sector. The analysis is based on quarterly firm-level data from Turkish banking sector in 2002–2012. We aims to contribute to the empirical capital structure literature in the following ways. Our first contribution comes from assessing the importance of firm-specific factors, country-level factors and industrial factors for capital structure decisions in Turkish banking sector. Second, we employ appropriate and advanced dynamic panel data estimators, Blundell and Bond’s (1998 generalized methods of moment’s estimators (GMM System. We find that leverage is significantly and positively associated with average industry leverage, firm size and GDP growth. We find also that leverage is significantly and negatively associated with tangibility, profitability, inflation and financial risk. The regression results for leverage are both theoretically and empirically plausible for banks in Turkey. Moreover, tangibility, profitability and GDP growth are consistent with the predictions of the pecking order theory, while firm size is consistent with the predictions of the trade-off theory. Our findings suggest that the capital structures of financial and non-financial firms are ultimately determined by the same drivers.

  17. The Macroeconomic Context of Investments in the Field of Machine Tools in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Povolná Lucie

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the macroeconomic analysis of production, export, import and investment in machine tools in the Czech Republic in the context of the initiative of Industry 4.0. Machine tools (MT are among traditional industries in the Czech Republic and the industry has an innovative and growth potential. However, the economic crisis may disrupt or modify this trend. The article focuses on the analysis of correlations between GDP growth and production of MT, MT exports and investments in MT in the Czech Republic after the accession to the European Union in 2004 during the economic crisis of 2009 and the post-crisis development until 2014. The results show that production and exports are directly related to fluctuations in GDP and the economic cycle, but domestic investment in machine tools did not show this dependence. It is necessary to capture new trends to increase the competitiveness of the MT industry. The course of recovery of Czech economy after the economic crisis of 2009 indicates signals of qualitative changes in the traditional field of machine tool production. Comparing the years 2013 and 2014, it shows that export MT (SITC 731 fell in 2014, although the total exports from the Czech Republic to Europe and to the world grew significantly.

  18. The macro-economic effects of wind energy. De macro-economische effecten van windenergie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Burg, T. (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen (Netherlands))

    1990-01-01

    First the characteristics of wind energy pertaining to business economics are discussed. Then attention is paid to the calculation of macro-economic effects. Special attention is paid to the efficiency of projects from a business economical point of view correlated to macro-economic effects, and subsidies for wind energy for the Dutch situation. From the economic analysis it appears that investments in wind energy have positive macro-economic effects, even if they are inefficient with regard to business economical aspects. 2 figs., 9 refs., 5 tabs.

  19. Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zulkefly Abdul Karim

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia. Monetary policy variables (interest rate and money supply have been measured through a non-recursive structural VAR (SVAR identification scheme, which allows the monetary authority to set the interest rate and money supply after observing the current value of foreign variables, domestic output and inflation. The results show the important role of foreign shocks in influencing Malaysian monetary policy and macroeconomic variables. There is a real effect of monetary policy, that is, a positive shock in money supply increases domestic output. In contrast, a positive interest rates shock has a negative effect on domestic output growth and inflation. The effects of money supply and interest rate shocks on the exchange rate and stock prices are also consistent with standard economic theory. In addition, domestic monetary policy is able to mitigate the negative effect of external shocks upon domestic economy.

  20. Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation in Ghana From 1990 – 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Gyebi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to identify the macroeconomic factors responsible for inflation in Ghana for the period 1990 to 2009. For this purpose, the time series model is selected based on various diagnostic, evaluation and selection criteria. It can be concluded that the model has sufficient predictive powers and the findings are well in line with those of other studies. The research findings would show that real output and money supply are the strongest forces exerting pressure on the price level to move up the exchange rate depreciation and implementation of ERP helped reduce the level of inflation in Ghana giving evidence that the ERP achieved its basic objective of reducing inflationary trend in Ghana.

  1. Spatial Durbin model analysis macroeconomic loss due to natural disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusrini, D. E.; Mukhtasor

    2015-03-01

    Magnitude of the damage and losses caused by natural disasters is huge for Indonesia, therefore this study aimed to analyze the effects of natural disasters for macroeconomic losses that occurred in 115 cities/districts across Java during 2012. Based on the results of previous studies it is suspected that it contains effects of spatial dependencies in this case, so that the completion of this case is performed using a regression approach to the area, namely Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The obtained significant predictor variable is population, and predictor variable with a significant weighting is the number of occurrences of disasters, i.e., disasters in the region which have an impact on other neighboring regions. Moran's I index value using the weighted Queen Contiguity also showed significant results, meaning that the incidence of disasters in the region will decrease the value of GDP in other.

  2. Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Pedro P; López, Ricardo; Jiménez, Carlos

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to explain the macroeconomic volatility due to microeconomic shocks to one or several sectors, recognizing the non-symmetrical relation in the interaction among the Ecuadorian economic sectors. To grasp the economic structure of this emerging economy, a statistical analysis of network data is applied to the respective input-output matrix of Ecuador from 1975 until 2012. We find periods wherein the production of domestic inputs is concentrated in a few suppliers; for example, in 2010, the concentration significantly affects sectors and their downstream providers, thus influencing aggregate volatility. Compared to the US productive structure, this emerging economy presents fewer sectors and degree distributions with less extreme fat-tail behavior. In this simpler economy, we continue to find a link between microeconomic shocks and aggregate volatility. Two new theoretical propositions are introduced to formalize our results.

  3. Budget Deficit and Macroeconomics Fundamentals: The case of Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahnim Farajova

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the emergence of rising budget deficit is the main reason forcing economists to investigate the reasons for changes in fiscal balances. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between budget deficit and macroeconomic fundamentals using data from Azerbaijan. The empirical analysis applies ARDL Cointegration methodology in conjunction with Granger causality tests to provide evidence for both the long and short run dynamics between the variables involved in the analysis. Using the Error Correction specification, there was found evidence of long-run causality running from current account, real interest rate, GDP, inflation and exchange rate to budget deficit. There was also found evidence of short-run Granger causal effects running from current account and real interest rate towards budget deficit and a rather weak causal effect from inflation to budget deficit. However, there is no short – run causality running from interest rate to budget deficit.

  4. THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE MOVEMENT OF CROBEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojan Tomic

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Many research showed a high degree of correlation between the US and European capital markets, partly due to industrial‒financial linkages of the United States and Europe, and partly due to the influence of psychological factors on the behavior of individuals, and the concept of behavioral finance. However, it can be assumed that the movement of the value of an observed index does not depend solely on the change of values of the S & P 500 index. Accordingly and in line with rational economic theory, this paper examines the link between changes in the value of selected macroeconomic indicators and the value of the main share Croatian capital market index CROBEX. The results indicate that of the nine initially observed variables, movement of CROBEX can be described and further explained by changes in the value of average wages, parity rate and dollar, the kuna and the euro and the kuna and the Swiss franc.

  5. Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Ricardo; Jiménez, Carlos

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to explain the macroeconomic volatility due to microeconomic shocks to one or several sectors, recognizing the non-symmetrical relation in the interaction among the Ecuadorian economic sectors. To grasp the economic structure of this emerging economy, a statistical analysis of network data is applied to the respective input-output matrix of Ecuador from 1975 until 2012. We find periods wherein the production of domestic inputs is concentrated in a few suppliers; for example, in 2010, the concentration significantly affects sectors and their downstream providers, thus influencing aggregate volatility. Compared to the US productive structure, this emerging economy presents fewer sectors and degree distributions with less extreme fat-tail behavior. In this simpler economy, we continue to find a link between microeconomic shocks and aggregate volatility. Two new theoretical propositions are introduced to formalize our results. PMID:29293567

  6. On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giovannelli, Alessandro; Proietti, Tommaso

    on the ordering of the components, based on weighting the p-values according to the eigenvalues associated to the components. We compare the empirical performance of these methods with the classical diffusion index (DI) approach proposed by Stock and Watson, conducting a pseudo-real time forecasting exercise......We address the problem of selecting the common factors that are relevant for forecasting macroeconomic variables. In economic forecasting using diffusion indexes the factors are ordered, according to their importance, in terms of relative variability, and are the same for each variable to predict...... factors. However, variable selection, leading to exclude some of the low order principal components, can lead to a sizable improvement in forecasting in specific cases. Only in one instance, real personal income, we were able to detect a significant contribution from high order components....

  7. Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Level of Dollarization in Ukraine

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Krasnova Iryna V; Kot Viktoriya V

    2017-01-01

    The objectives of the article are identifying causal relationships between the macroeconomic determinants and the level of dollarization in Ukraine, as well as determining the activities for de-dollarization...

  8. A Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Firms’ Shares Performance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Ogunmuyiwa

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on whether the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the stock market is positive or negative or of no effect by analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and performance of quoted firms on the Nigeria Stock Exchange market. A sample of fifty (50 quoted firms across eight (8 major sectors of the market was selected for the study. The static panel regression technique was employed on monthly data sourced from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN between 2007:1 and 2013:12. Results from empirical findings reveal that varying impacts exist between the macroeconomic indicators and firm share returns in Nigeria. It goes further to affirm that inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate are the major significant macroeconomic indicators driving firm share returns in Nigeria.

  9. Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns: Panel Analysis from Selected ASEAN Countries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nurasyikin Jamaludin; Shahnaz Ismail; Syamimi Ab Manaf

    2017-01-01

      This paper aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply, and exchange rate on both conventional and Islamic stock market returns in the three selected ASEAN countries...

  10. The Macroeconomic Context of Investments in the Field of Machine Tools in the Czech Republic

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lucie Povolná; Jena Švarcová

    2017-01-01

    The article focuses on the macroeconomic analysis of production, export, import and investment in machine tools in the Czech Republic in the context of the initiative of Industry 4.0. Machine tools (MT...

  11. SHADOW ECONOMY AND ITS RELATIONS WITH TAX SYSTEM, BUDGET DEFICIT AND MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Savych, I

    2015-01-01

    The paper analyzes the influence of the shadow economy on the tax system, state budget and a number of macroeconomic parameters of Ukraine such as poverty, income levels, corruption, GDP per capita...

  12. Effects of the Washington Consensus on the Macroeconomic Stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasumović Merim

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With regard to the specific situation and problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina this paper will analyse the effects caused by adhering to the rules of the Washington Consensus, and thus will determine to which extent they have influenced the stability of the macroeconomic indicators in Bosnia and Herzegovina and will explain how the rules affect the stability of macroeconomic indicators of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The main thesis of the Washington Consensus is that by following the measures of the same the macroeconomic situation in the country becomes more stabilised. However, stabilization often cannot sustain in the long term and this situation in the economy can be regarded as quasi-macroeconomic stability.

  13. USE OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL IN MACRO-ECONOMICAL ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin ANGHELACHE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the fundamental aspects of the linear regression, as a toolbox which can be used in macroeconomic analyses. The article describes the estimation of the parameters, the statistical tests used, the homoscesasticity and heteroskedasticity. The use of econometrics instrument in macroeconomics is an important factor that guarantees the quality of the models, analyses, results and possible interpretation that can be drawn at this level.

  14. A Review (and a Comment) on Michel De Vroey’s History of Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Sergi, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond is an ambitious book. First (and obviously), because the scope of the book is to address the evolution of modern macroeconomic theory from John Maynard Keynes’s General Theory to Michael Woodford’s Interest and Prices (2003), which involves investigating a seventy-year history of intricate debates, involving several dimensions (theory, methodology, policy) and hundreds of heterogeneous contributions from dozens of preeminent macroeco...

  15. Impact of the macroeconomic factors on university budgeting the US and Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogomolova, Arina; Balk, Igor; Ivachenko, Natalya; Temkin, Anatoly

    2017-10-01

    This paper discuses impact of macroeconomics factor on the university budgeting. Modern developments in the area of data science and machine learning made it possible to utilise automated techniques to address several problems of humankind ranging from genetic engineering and particle physics to sociology and economics. This paper is the first step to create a robust toolkit which will help universities sustain macroeconomic challenges utilising modern predictive analytics techniques.

  16. The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Todd E. Clark; Francesco Ravazzolo

    2012-01-01

    This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form of time-varying volatility, precisely stochastic volatility (both with constant and time-varying autoregressive coeffi cients), stochastic volatility following a stationary AR process, stochastic volat...

  17. Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and the Stock Market Returns in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    ALAM, Zaheer; RASHID, Kashif

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between Karachi stock market 100 index and macroeconomic variables, i.e., inflation, industrial production, money supply, exchange rate and interest rate. The long term relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns has been analyzed by using Johnson Cointegration test, Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. The Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH LM)...

  18. Global Recession and Asian Growth: Experience and Prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Dowling, John Malcolm

    2009-01-01

    The paper outlines current macroeconomic developments in industrial countries and explains how slower growth in these economies is being transmitted to developing economies in Asia. The macroeconomic outlook for industrial countries in 2009 is discussed along with the transmission mechanism that has brought the global downturn tothe Asian economies. Monetary and fiscal policy adjustments in Asian economies have been implemented to address the downturn in economic activity and these policies a...

  19. GLOBAL RECESSION AND ASIAN GROWTH: EXPERIENCE AND PROSPECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Dowling, John Malcolm

    2015-01-01

    The paper outlines current macroeconomic developments in industrial countries and explains how slower growth in these economies is being transmitted to developing economies in Asia. The macroeconomic outlook for industrial countries in 2009 is discussed along with the transmission mechanism that has brought the global downturn tothe Asian economies. Monetary and fiscal policy adjustments in Asian economies have been implemented to address the downturn in economic activity and these policies a...

  20. Evidence of Macroeconomic Policy Effects over Company-Sector Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara Madaleno

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Given that stock markets may act as an economy mirror, it is explored the sensitivity of company-sector-specific stock returns to macroeconomic news reflecting different economic environments for the UK, US, Germany, Japan and Australian markets between March 1993 and February 2013 using monthly data. Results seem to indicate that portfolio investors need to be aware that movements in the market index is the best predictor to forecast stock returns of individual companies and sectors in developed economies. Sentiment influences individual company’s returns of the utilities sector, even if these are considered of limited growth and stable earnings, for UK, USA and Australia, turning investor confidence a relevant variable to be included. Information increases about industrial production have no influence on company and sector stocks, thus not affecting investor’s decision in developed countries. As for Japan, results seem to indicate that the higher the need of oil imports of a country, the higher will be the positive impact of oil price changes over company returns. Finally, the riskless interest rate has no effect on sector stock returns independently of the country under analysis. For developed economies, we confirm the finding that stocks cannot be used as a hedge against inflation.

  1. Does Public Debt Matter For Economic Growth?: Evidence From South Africa

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yosra Baaziz; Khaled Guesmi; David Heller; Amine Lahiani

    2015-01-01

    .... Using two macroeconomic control variables - inflation rate and Openness trade - the link between public debt and real GDP growth is found to depend upon the level of indebtedness of the country...

  2. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  3. Macroeconomic effects on D.J.S.I.-World Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sariannidis, Nikolaos

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the best known and highly regarded Socially Responsible Investing (SRI indexesis the Dow Jones Sustainability Index World (D.J.S.I.-World. By using the model ofGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH, the relationbetween D.J.S.I.-World returns to 10 year bond returns and Yen/U.S. dollar exchangerate is investigated. Research results show that 10 year bond value affects positively thevalue of D.J.S.I.-World. However, there is a negative relation between Yen/U.S. dollarexchange rate and D.J.S.I.-World with a month delay. According to our results, the totalreturn of D.J.S.I.-World is affected by such macroeconomic factors as the value of 10year bond, the Yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate and the general economic environment. Inthis way, investors can understand better the function of SRI market. Additionally, a newchannel of information is created and better evaluation of D.J.S.I.-World is enabled.

  4. Safeguarding against substandard/counterfeit drugs: mitigating a macroeconomic pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertheimer, Albert I; Norris, Jeremiah

    2009-03-01

    Counterfeiting and the sale of substandard pharmaceutical products can no longer be ignored. At 10% of global trade, counterfeiting is affecting many countries, causing serious downstream expenses and resource shortages. To describe the nature and impact of drug product counterfeiting and substandard product sale and to present strategies that may have value in ameliorating these phenomena. A literature review was conducted, supplemented by interviews of key leaders/experts in the field and the search of relevant web sites. All of the data were combined, integrated, and coordinated to present the complete picture of this problem. In addition to known corruption in some of the least developed countries, the trail through developed countries was detected. This report identifies means to detect faulty products and describes efforts toward resisting and ending these corrupt practices. Counterfeit drugs, if not stopped, can be responsible for a macroeconomic pandemic where major portions of some populations may be too ill to work and where the health sector resources are completely overwhelmed, as with the case of HIV/AIDS.

  5. Financing the response to AIDS: some fiscal and macroeconomic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haacker, Markus

    2008-07-01

    This article examines the international response to AIDS from a fiscal perspective: first the financing of the international response to AIDS, especially the role of external financing, and second, a more comprehensive perspective on the costs of the national response to AIDS relevant for fiscal policy. The second half of the article focuses on the effectiveness of the response to AIDS. We find that there is little basis for concerns about macroeconomic constraints to scaling up, in light of the moderate scale of AIDS-related aid flows relative to overall aid. Regarding sectoral constraints, the picture is more differentiated. Many countries with high prevalence rates have also achieved high rates of access to treatment, but most of these are middle-income countries. Our econometric analysis credits external aid as a key factor that has enabled higher-prevalence countries to cope with the additional demands for health services. At the same time, gross domestic product per capita and health sector capacities are important determinants of access to treatment.

  6. IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON TURKISH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esra Balli

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Turkish economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas, as the latest figures from International Energy Agency (IEA show that Turkey imports 90% of its total liquid fuels. Therefore a more volatile oil price can have consequences on macroeconomic variables in Turkey. It is empirically evident that an increase in oil prices followed by deterioration in macro economic variables while a decrease in oil price has relatively lower expansionary effect on macro economic variables. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price on the major Turkish macro economic variables, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP, Consumer Price Index (CPI and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER on the basis of quarterly data from 2003Q1 to 2015Q3. Firstly, ADF, KPSS, PP unit root tests and Zivot-Andrews, Lumsdaine Papell unit root tests allowing for structural breaks are used to characterize the time series. Additionally, Granger causality test is performed to give a clearer picture of how these variables are related. The results show that Gross Domestic Product, Oil Price and Consumer Price Index are stationary, while Real Effective Exchange Rate have unit root in Turkey. Test results indicate that, there is a casual relationship from oil price to GDP and to CPI. Furthermore, there exist a bidirectional causality between GDP and CPI in Turkey.

  7. On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Palamalai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR, and exchange rate (EXR in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

  8. Growth and Poverty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Leyaro, Vincent; Mahrt, Kristi

    2017-01-01

    This chapter considers the evolution of welfare of the Tanzanian population using a multi-dimensional approach. It also employs a detailed economy-wide model of the Tanzanian economy to explore growth and monetary poverty reduction scenarios from 2007 to 2015. This approach permits assessment...... of the coherence of observed trends in macroeconomic variables and projects consumption poverty outcomes to 2015. In the multi-dimensional approach, we find that real gains have been achieved. On monetary poverty, our model broadly reproduces key macroeconomic features of the past eight years. We find...... that published consumption poverty reductions for 2007 to 2011/12 from the most recent assessment fall within a reasonable to optimistic range. And, the simulations generate broader based growth across the income distribution compared with the recent assessment. Looking forward, the simulations from 2012 to 2105...

  9. Revisiting the 'disaster and development' debate - Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochizuki, Junko; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Keating, Adriana; Williges, Keith

    2014-01-01

    Debate regarding the relationship between socioeconomic development and natural disasters remains at the fore of global discussions, as the potential risk from climate extremes and uncertainty pose an increasing threat to developmental prospects. This study reviews statistical investigations of disaster and development linkages, across topics of macroeconomic growth, public governance and others to identify key challenges to the current approach to macro-level statistical investigation. Both theoretically and qualitatively, disaster is known to affect development through a number of channels: haphazard development, weak institutions, lack of social safety nets and short-termism of our decision-making practices are some of the factors that drive natural disaster risk. Developmental potentials, including the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth, are in turn threatened by such accumulation of disaster risks. However, quantitative evidence regarding these complex causality chains remains contested due to several reasons. A number of theoretical and methodological limitations have been identified, including the use of GDP as a proxy measurement of welfare, issues with natural disaster damage reporting and the adoption of ad hoc model specifications and variables, which render interpretation and cross-comparison of statistical analysis difficult. Additionally, while greater attention is paid to economic and institutional parameters such as GDP, remittance, corruption and public expenditure as opposed to hard-to-quantify yet critical factors such as environmental conditions and social vulnerabilities. These are gaps in our approach that hamper our comprehensive understanding of the disaster-development nexus. Important areas for further research are identified, including recognizing and addressing the data constraints, incorporating sustainability and equity concerns through alternatives to GDP, and finding novel approaches to examining the complex and dynamic

  10. Long-Term Growth and Fiscal Development Policies: The Ghanaian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The article aims at clarifying the relationship between long-term growth and fiscal policy variables. Growth equations are derived from a structural macroeconomic model. The model developed here postulates that the steady-growth rate of output becomes endogenous and is influenced by government policies.

  11. Economic cycles and their synchronization: Spectral analysis of macroeconomic series from Italy, The Netherlands, and the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sella, Lisa; Vivaldo, Gianna; Ghil, Michael; Groth, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    The present work applies several advanced spectral methods (Ghil et al., Rev. Geophys., 2002) to the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations in Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. These methods provide valuable time-and-frequency-domain tools that complement traditional time-domain analysis, and are thus fairly well known by now in the geosciences and life sciences, but not yet widespread in quantitative economics. In particular, they enable the identification and characterization of nonlinear trends and dominant cycles --- including low-frequency and seasonal components --- that characterize the behavior of each time series. We explore five fundamental indicators of the real (i.e., non-monetary), aggregate economy --- namely gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, fixed investments, exports and imports --- in a univariate as well as multivariate setting. A single-channel analysis by means of three independent spectral methods --- singular spectrum analysis (SSA), the multi-taper method (MTM), and the maximum-entropy method (MEM) --- reveals very similar near-annual cycles, as well as several longer periodicities, in the macroeconomic indicators of all the countries analyzed. Since each indicator represents different features of an economic system, we combine them to infer if common oscillatory modes are present, either among different indicators within the same country or among the same indicators across different countries. Multichannel-SSA (M-SSA) reinforces the previous results, and shows that the common modes agree in character with solutions of a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) that produces endogenous business cycles (Hallegatte et al., JEBO, 2008). The presence of these modes in NEDyM results from adjustment delays and other nonequilibrium effects that were added to a neoclassical Solow (Q. J. Econ., 1956) growth model. Their confirmation by the present analysis has important consequences for the net impact of natural disasters on the

  12. The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2012-01-01

    Aim Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. Methods We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15–49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an “artificial” ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Results Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm3 CD4 cell counts. Conclusion Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the

  13. Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Pietro, Giorgio

    2017-11-07

    This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Macroeconomic Dynamics in Russia During the First World War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheremisinov Georgiy

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The trajectory and quality of economic development of a country depend on the scale of the public entrepreneurship. The key parameters of macroeconomic dynamics are represented by the ratio between consumption and accumulation (saving in the national income, the regulation of centralized withdrawal of economic resources and the nature of their investment or expenditure. Theoretical analysis. The First World War had been changing the course of economic processes in Russia since 1914 till 1918. The funds were raised for ensuring the defense industry and supplying the troops. The incomes of population and enterprises were decreasing. The capital goods and trade ties undergone destruction processes. The besieged state turned to reducing reproduction of the gross national product. The military situation and extraordinary redistribution of resources had strengthened the economic status of the country. The funds spent on the maintenance and equipment of the army depended on the methods of resource allocation. Along with the war losses, the methods of economic regulation also contributed to the degradation of Russian economy. The devastation was caused by the armed struggle of state power for their interests and purposeful economic policy of successive governments. Conclusion. During the First World War the Russian economy had become extreme. Public withdrawal of economic resources and the impact on the economy was growing up until its overall governmentalization and transformation of the market economy into the subsistence one. The reformation processes supported each other mutually, strengthened the effect of general trends and had irreversible cumulative character. The mobilization model of the Russian economy was formed.

  15. Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, David E; Chatterji, Somnath; Kowal, Paul; Lloyd-Sherlock, Peter; McKee, Martin; Rechel, Bernd; Rosenberg, Larry; Smith, James P

    2015-02-14

    Between now and 2030, every country will experience population ageing-a trend that is both pronounced and historically unprecedented. Over the past six decades, countries of the world had experienced only a slight increase in the share of people aged 60 years and older, from 8% to 10%. But in the next four decades, this group is expected to rise to 22% of the total population-a jump from 800 million to 2 billion people. Evidence suggests that cohorts entering older age now are healthier than previous ones. However, progress has been very uneven, as indicated by the wide gaps in population health (measured by life expectancy) between the worst (Sierra Leone) and best (Japan) performing countries, now standing at a difference of 36 years for life expectancy at birth and 15 years for life expectancy at age 60 years. Population ageing poses challenges for countries' economies, and the health of older populations is of concern. Older people have greater health and long-term care needs than younger people, leading to increased expenditure. They are also less likely to work if they are unhealthy, and could impose an economic burden on families and society. Like everyone else, older people need both physical and economic security, but the burden of providing these securities will be falling on a smaller portion of the population. Pension systems will be stressed and will need reassessment along with retirement policies. Health systems, which have not in the past been oriented toward the myriad health problems and long-term care needs of older people and have not sufficiently emphasised disease prevention, can respond in different ways to the new demographic reality and the associated changes in population health. Along with behavioural adaptations by individuals and businesses, the nature of such policy responses will establish whether population ageing will lead to major macroeconomic difficulties. Copyright © 2015 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd

  16. Macroeconomic Benefits of Low-Cost Reusable Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Eric J.; Greenberg, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated its Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Technology Program to provide information on the technical and commercial feasibility of single-stage to orbit (SSTO), fully-reusable launchers. Because RLVs would not depend on expendable hardware to achieve orbit, they could take better advantage of economies of scale than expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) that discard costly hardware on ascent. The X-33 experimental vehicle, a sub-orbital, 60%-scale prototype of Lockheed Martin's VentureStar SSTO RLV concept, is being built by Skunk Works for a 1999 first flight. If RLVs achieve prices to low-earth orbit of less than $1000 US per pound, they could hold promise for eliciting an elastic response from the launch services market. As opposed to the capture of existing market, this elastic market would represent new space-based industry businesses. These new opportunities would be created from the next tier of business concepts, such as space manufacturing and satellite servicing, that cannot earn a profit at today's launch prices but could when enabled by lower launch costs. New business creation contributes benefits to the US Government (USG) and the US economy through increases in tax revenues and employment. Assumptions about the costs and revenues of these new ventures, based on existing space-based and aeronautics sector businesses, can be used to estimate the macroeconomic benefits provided by new businesses. This paper examines these benefits and the flight prices and rates that may be required to enable these new space industries.

  17. ROMANIA'S MACROECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENTS FOR JOINING THE UNIQUE EUROPEAN CURENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SILVIA POPESCU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian government has announced plans to join the eurozone by 2015. Currently, the leu is not yet part of ERM II but plans to join in 2010-2012. The economic advantages of the monetary union grow with expansion of the Euro zone. There is also a high level of skepticism; the main fear about the Euro is the inflation –that is considerable promoted by the Euro currency’s exchange rate in comparison with 2002; another restraint is due to member states inability to establish their own interest rates. The IMF arose the option of joining the Euro zone criteria relaxing. A one-sided Euro’s joining was suggested by International Monetary Fund on March-April 2009, in a confidential report mentioned by The Financial Times as the emergent states in Central and Eastern Europe to be able to pass to the unique currency, but not being represented in the Central European Bank Board. By its side, CEB considers that emergent states of the European Union must not pass to the unique currency unilaterally, because such a fact could under-mine the trust in Euro currency worldwide. This option would hardly deepen the macroeconomic controversies inside the Euro zone and would contradict the previous conditions already imposed. An acceptable solution could be the fastening of emergent countries joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2, after they are aware of risks arisen by such a step. The European Commission endorses in the Convergence Report on 2010 that Romania doesn’t meet any criteria needed by passing to the unique European currency, respectively: prices stability; budget position of the government; stability of exchange rate; interest convergence on long run and there are also law impediments. Our paper discusses arguments for a faster passing to the Euro currency versus arguments for a late joining the Euro currency in Romania.

  18. [The report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: its relevance to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-01

    The Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) was established by the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) to evaluate the role of health in economic development. On 20 December 2001 the CMH submitted its report to the WHO Director-General. Entitled Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development, the CMH report affirms that in order to reduce poverty; and achieve economic development, it is essential to improve the health of the poor; to accomplish this, it is necessary to expand the access that the poor have to essential health services. The Commission believes that more financial resources are needed, that the health expenditures of less-developed and low-income countries are insufficient for the challenges that these countries face, and that high-income countries must increase their financial assistance in order to help solve the main health problems of less-developed and low-income countries. This piece summarizes a report that was prepared by the Program on Public Policy and Health of the Division of Health and Human Development of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). The PAHO document analyzes the importance of the CMH report for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, focusing on some of the central arguments put forth in the CMH report as they relate to achieving better health conditions in the Americas. These arguments have been organized around three major themes in the CMH report: a) the relationships between health and economic growth, b) the principal health problems that affect the poor in low-income and low-middle-income#10; countries, and c) the gap between the funding needed to address the principal problems that affect these countries and the actual spending levels. #10;

  19. Institutional Design, Macroeconomic Policy Coordination and Implications for the Financial Sector in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Muhammad Ali

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study has analysed the implications of institutional design of macroeconomic policy making institutions for the macroeconomic policy interaction and financial sector in the United Kingdom. Employing a Vector Error Correction (VEC model and using monthly data from January 1985 to August 2008 we found that the changes in institutional arrangement and design of policy making authorities appeared to be a major contributing factor in dynamics of association between policy coordination/combination and financial sector. It was also found that the independence of the Bank of England (BoE and withdrawal from the Exchange Rate Mechanism led to the increase in macroeconomic policy maker’s ability to coordinate and restore financial stability. The results imply that although institutional autonomy in the form of instrument independence (monetary policy decisions could bring financial stability, there is a strong necessity for coordination, even in Post-MPC (Monetary Policy Committee and the BoE independence.

  20. Job satisfaction in the European union: the role of macroeconomic, personal, and job-related factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augner, Christoph

    2015-03-01

    Job satisfaction is influenced by many factors. Most of them are attributed to personality or company features. Little research has been conducted identifying the relationship of job satisfaction with macroeconomic parameters. We used data collected by European Commission (Eurostat, Eurofound) and World Health Organization (WHO) for personal (eg, subjective health, physical activity), company (eg, career advancement perspectives, negative health effects of work), or macroeconomic parameters (eg, Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate) on state level. Correlation analysis and a stepwise linear regression model were obtained. Gross domestic product (GDP) was the best predictor for job satisfaction across the European Union member states ahead of good career perspectives, and WHO-5 score (depressive symptoms). Beside personal, job-related, and organizational factors that influence job satisfaction, the macroeconomic perspective has to be considered, too.

  1. Impact of Macro-economic Factors on Deposit Formation by Ukrainian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shevaldina Valentyna H.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is detection of interconnections between the common economic processes and formation of bank deposits by population. The article builds a correlation and regression model of complex assessment of interconnection between macro-economic factors, savings behaviour of population and level of deposits of population in banks for two hour horizons: short-term, which is characterised with deployment of crisis phenomena both in global economy and in Ukrainian economy and the medium-term one. The article characterises the most significant common macro-economic factors. In the result of the study the article establishes that Ukrainian population is oriented at short-term horizon when forming savings due to the uncertainty in future. In the medium-term prospective, savings of the population are formed basically under influence of macro-economic factors, while formation of deposits by Ukrainian population is mostly influenced by socio-psychological factors.

  2. Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.

  3. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in the Italian Public Health Service: Macroeconomic and Corporate Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelaide Ippolito

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon.

  4. How the macroeconomic context impacts on attitudes to immigration: Evidence from within-country variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruist, Joakim

    2016-11-01

    This study investigates the effects of the macroeconomic context on attitudes to immigration. Earlier studies do in some cases not provide significant empirical support for the existence of important such effects. In this article it is argued that this lack of consistent evidence is mainly due to the cross-national setup of these studies being vulnerable to estimation bias caused by country-specific factors. The present study instead analyzes attitude variation within countries over time. The results provide firm empirical support in favor of macroeconomic variation importantly affecting attitudes to immigration. As an illustration, the estimates indicate that the number of individuals in the average European country in 2012 who were against all immigration from poorer countries outside Europe was 40% higher than it would have been if macroeconomic conditions in that year had been as good as they were in 2006. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Exit, voice, and loyalty in the Italian public health service: macroeconomic and corporate implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ippolito, Adelaide; Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon.

  6. Introducing Valuation Effects-Based External Balance Analysis into the Undergraduate Macroeconomics Curricula: A Simple Framework with Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brust, Peter; Jayakumar, Vivekanand

    2012-01-01

    Global imbalances and the sustainability of large U.S. current account deficits have dominated international macroeconomics of late. Pedagogically, a clear disconnect exists between graduate-level open-economy macroeconomics that emphasizes intertemporal current account models and net foreign asset adjustment featuring valuation effects, and,…

  7. Causes and Effects in Macroeconomics: 2011 Nobel Prize Lecture in Economic Sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shlair Abdulkhaleq Al-Zanganee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Noble Laureates Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims have been granted the 2011 Noble Prize in economic sciences in appreciation of their empirical research on causes and effects in macroeconomics. The controversy on causality in macroeconomics was discussed in both of Sargent’s and Sims’s 2011 Prize lectures. While Sargent attempts to use the economic theory to interpret some historical events in order to gain insights on some contemporary issues, such as sovereign defaults, federal bailouts, and the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, Sims is emphasizing the importance of large-scale economic models and calling for more research to be done in that area.

  8. Gates to retirement and gender differences: Macroeconomic conditions, job satisfaction, and age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrad, Hila; Mcnamara, Tay K

    2017-08-04

    The different pathways out of the labor force have been the focus of many recent studies, yet not enough scholarly attention has been paid to the effect of country-level, individual, and job characteristics and their potentially different influence across genders. The current article examines the relationships between retirement decisions and macroeconomic conditions, personal characteristics, and job satisfaction, while focusing on gender differences. Data came from 16,337 respondents in 13 European countries that participated in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that the relative importance of macroeconomic conditions and job satisfaction differs by gender.

  9. Garrison's Capital-Based Macroeconomics: The Role of Deficit, Credit Control and Taxation

    OpenAIRE

    Ferlito, Carmelo

    2011-01-01

    It could be quite simple to quite simple to argue that, in the realm of the Austrian School of Economics, public finance plays no role. However, the Austrian perspective is very wide and, starting from Hayek, it is possible to trace a path that arrives to Roger Garrison. Garrison’s capital-based macroeconomics is the attempt to write a new general macroeconomics founded on time, expectations and capital. Starting from that basic graphic tool called Hayek’s triangle, Garrison tries to verif...

  10. Reflections on modern macroeconomics: Can we travel along a safer road?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffeo, E.; Catalano, M.; Clementi, F.; Delli Gatti, D.; Gallegati, M.; Russo, A.

    2007-08-01

    In this paper we sketch some reflections on the pitfalls and inconsistencies of the research program-currently dominant among the profession-aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomics along a Walrasian perspective. We argue that such a methodological approach constitutes an unsatisfactory answer to a well-posed research question, and that alternative promising routes have been long mapped out but only recently explored. In particular, we discuss a recent agent-based, truly non-Walrasian macroeconomic model, and we use it to envisage new challenges for future research.

  11. Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988

    OpenAIRE

    Darné, Olivier; Charles, Amélie

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the large shocks due to major economic or financial events that affected U.S. macroeconomic time series on the period 1860-1988, using outlier methodology. We show that most of these shocks have a temporary effect, showing that the U.S. macroeconomic time series experienced only few large permanent shifts in the long term. Most of these large shocks can be explained by major recessions and World War II as well as by monetary policy for the interest rate data. We also...

  12. The Effect of Economic Growth under Nominal GDP in Relation to Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Shkumbin Misini; Myrvete Badivuku-Pantina

    2017-01-01

    In this paper the focus will be on Macroeconomic analysis regarding economic growth under GDP, in relation to the most important macroeconomic parameter, poverty. The paper will include the analysis of Gross Domestic Product, as an important measure of an economic overview within a country or a state. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a more impeccable method for the analysis of all transactions that are performed within a country, in order to display an economic analysis for a country. The key...

  13. Employment and Growth | Page 39 | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    José María Fanelli (CEDES): This article presents some key recommendations to protect world growth and avoid a painful global depression, drawing on the results of an IDRC -supported research project on the international financial architecture, macroeconomic volatility, and institutions. Read more about The financial ...

  14. Recent evolution of Brazil's economy, the macroeconomic outlook and electricity sector dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Castro, Nivalde J. de; Rosental, Rubens; Bueno, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    With reference to a very favorable macroeconomic context of the Brazilian economy in 2007, the objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts on consumption of electricity and the expansion of installed generating capacity, it seeking a position signal on the real prospects of balance of imbalance between supply and demand of electric energy for the coming years.

  15. Government control of markets of financial services of Ukraine in conditions of macroeconomic instability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ігор Юрійович Мельников

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An essence of financial services market of Ukraine is considered in the article. The mechanism and features of state regulation of financial services market in the context of macroeconomic instability are determined, the fundamentals of the theory of regulation of market economy and segments of the financial market of Ukraine are determined

  16. Human capital formation and macroeconomic performance in an ageing small open economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijdra, Ben J.; Romp, Ward E.

    We study the effects of stylized demographic and fiscal shocks on the macroeconomic performance of an industrialized small open economy. We construct an overlapping-generations model which incorporates a realistic description of the mortality process. Agents engage in educational activities at the

  17. The Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of Aid and Disaggregated Aid in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebregziabher, Fiseha Haile

    2014-01-01

    This article investigates the long-run macroeconomic effects of aid and disaggregated aid flows in Ethiopia, currently the world's largest recipient of official development assistance, for the period 1960-2009. The results show that aid affects gross domestic product (GDP), investment and imports...

  18. Exchange-rate determination : is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews recent trends in exchange rate modelling with a view toward assessing new claims that macroeconomic variables are useful for explaining exchange rates. The application to co-integration techniques and the use of larger datasets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both

  19. Use of a Deterministic Macroeconomic Computer Model as a Teaching Aid in Economic Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedford, John R.

    A simple deterministic macroeconomic computer model was tested in a junior-senior level economic statistics course to demonstrate how and why some common errors arise when statistical estimation techniques are applied to economic relationships in empirical problematic situations. The computer model was treated as the true universe or real-world…

  20. Rational Expectations and the Theory of Macroeconomic Policy: An Exposition of Some of the Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnovsky, Stephen J.

    1984-01-01

    The rational expectations hypothesis has had a profound impact on macroeconomic theory and policy during the past decade. The most significant contribution of the hypothesis is in formulating expectations in a genuinely forward-looking way, thereby making the current state of the economy depend on expectations of the future. (Author/RM)

  1. Including the monetary part in macro accounting: A ‘modern’ approach to the macroeconomic accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur TUTULMAZ

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic output is placed at the heart of the macroeconomics. To calculate the output one needs to achieve simplifying a high level complexity of economic relationships to form a system. On the flip side, the model should be enough elaborated to be able to reflect the important relationships. In this manner, the classical macroeconomic identity as Keynes suggested is simple enough to understand the main elements but it does not show the financial parts of transactions. Not having the monetary part of the economy it lacks the coherence. With the financial and economic crises getting more frequent, more endeavour to build a more inclusive and coherent macroeconomic system has been observed. However, there are large variety in different options of simplifying and simulating complex relationships among the real and monetary part of the modern economies.  Our paper tries to set an analysis comparing some of the recent prominent ideas in building balance sheet and transaction flow matrix in regard to macroeconomic accounting system. We can conclude the new achievement of including the monetary transactions in the frame causes a compromise from the simplicity for a coherent and more complete picture of macro economy.

  2. The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod Kumar NAIK

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the money supply and industrial production but negatively relate to inflation. The exchange rate and the short-term interest rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. There is bidirectional causality exists between industrial production and stock prices whereas, unidirectional causality from money supply to stock price, stock price to inflation and interest rates to stock prices are found.

  3. Seasonal Cointegration in Macroeconomic Systems: Case Studies for Small and Large European Countries.

    OpenAIRE

    Kunst, Robert M

    1993-01-01

    Stochastic seasonality in vector autoregressions draws attention to seasonal cointegrating vectors. Based upon the assumption of stochastic seasonality, seasonal cointegration is found in a six-dimensional vector autogregression of quarterly macroeconomic series which were not seasonally adjusted. The same experiment is performed on parallel data from four European economies: Austria, Finland, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Univariate and multivariate statistical evidence supports stochasti...

  4. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when

  5. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when debt

  6. Macroeconomic effects of CO2 emission limits : A computable general equilibrium analysis for China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, ZX

    The study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of limiting China's CO2 emissions by using a time-recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. The baseline scenario for the Chinese economy over the period to 2010 is first developed under a set of assumptions

  7. A Simple Treatment of the Liquidity Trap for Intermediate Macroeconomics Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2014-01-01

    Several leading undergraduate intermediate macroeconomics textbooks now include a simple reduced-form New Keynesian model of short-run dynamics (alongside the IS-LM model). Unfortunately, there is no accompanying description of how the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates affects the model. In this article, the authors show how the…

  8. Studying Absenteeism in Principles of Macroeconomics: Do Attendance Policies Make a Difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Self, Sharmistha

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of this article is to see if and how attendance policy influences class attendance in undergraduate-level principles of macroeconomics classes. The second objective, which is related to the first, is to examine whether the nature of the attendance policy matters in terms of its impact on class attendance behavior. The results…

  9. A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the…

  10. How Do Transfer Students Perform in Economics? Evidence from Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asarta, Carlos J.; Fuess, Scott M., Jr.; Perumal, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    For students taking intermediate-level economics, does it matter where they studied principles of economics? Does transferring college credit influence subsequent academic performance in economics? With a sample covering 1999-2008, the authors analyze in this article a group of nearly 1,000 students taking intermediate macroeconomics at a…

  11. Enhancing Student Learning and Critical Thinking through Academic Controversy in Post Secondary Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santicola, Craig F.

    2011-01-01

    There is a lack of student learning and critical thinking skills in post-secondary macroeconomics courses. The literature indicates that the lack of learning outcomes can be attributed to the reliance on traditional lecture and the failure to adopt innovative instructional techniques. The purpose of this study was to investigate the student…

  12. Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan

    2012-01-01

    The quantity theory of money, Okun’s law, and the Phillips curve are cornerstones of macroeconomic theory. But are they also of practical relevance? Using survey data for the euro area, we found that professional economists’ forecasts are consistent with a version of the quantity theory in which...

  13. Problem-Based Learning and High School Macroeconomics: A Comparative Study of Instructional Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Nan L.; Mergendoller, John R.; Bellisimo, Yolanda

    2005-01-01

    The authors examined the potential differences between problem-based learning (PBL) and traditional instructional approaches in building knowledge of macroeconomic concepts and principles in high school students. Using data from 252 economics students at 11 high schools and controlling for individual characteristics, most notably verbal ability,…

  14. The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices of Swiss Real Estate Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Ligocká

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock values of companies listed on stock exchanges could be influenced by many factors. The aim of this article is to examine existence and character of relationship between stock prices of selected Swiss real estate companies and macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP, interest rate, price level. The existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals is tested with the Johansen cointegration. The short run dynamics between the variables is examined by Vector Error Correction modelling and the Granger causality test. During the period 2005 – 2014 we revealed a long‑run equilibrium for five of the six analyzed stocks. We also confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the interest rate in particular, can explain a long-run behavior of stock prices. By contrast, macroeconomic variables are usually short in explanation of short‑run dynamics of stock prices. However, the results differ substantially among the stocks and, hence, they prevent us from drawing any general conclusion for the entire real estate sector in Switzerland.

  15. Methodologies for environmental, micro- and macro-economic evaluation of bioenergy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, R. van den; Wijk, A. van

    2006-01-01

    An overview is given of methodologies used for evaluation of bioenergy systems on envoronmental, micro- and macro-economic spects. To evaluate micro-economic impacts net present value and annualised cost calculation are used. For environmental impacts, methods used are: qualitative studies, energy

  16. Using the Student Research Project to Integrate Macroeconomics and Statistics in an Advanced Cost Accounting Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Mahamood M.; Schwartz, Bill N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses a student research project that is part of an advanced cost accounting class. The project emphasizes active learning, integrates cost accounting with macroeconomics and statistics by "learning by doing" using real world data. Students analyze sales data for a publicly listed company by focusing on the company's…

  17. Inflation - Growth Nexus in Ethiopia: Evidence from Threshold Auto ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Optiplex 7010 Pro

    Inflation - Growth Nexus in Ethiopia: Evidence from Threshold Auto Regressive Model. 1. Ashagrie Demile. 2. Abstract. Achieving high economic growth with stable and low inflation level has long been the macroeconomic policy objective of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian economy, however, has gone through different paths of ...

  18. Inflation - Growth nexus in Ethiopia: Evidence from Threshold Auto ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Achieving high economic growth with stable and low inflation level has long been the macroeconomic policy objective of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian economy, however, has gone through different paths of inflation and growth relationship over the last four decades. Before 2003, Ethiopia was well-known as a low inflation ...

  19. Establishing a Set of Macroeconomic Factors Explaining Variation Over Time of Performance in Business Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available With increasing competitiveness of companies and business sectors in the domestic markets of Lithuania, economic units are frequently confronted with the lack of methods for more detailed analysis of external factors explaining the variation over time of corporate financial indicators. The analysis or forecasting of financial indicators is usually linked with the development of a stock market or undertaken to estimate the probability of bankruptcy. However, there is a lack of studies aimed at identifying links between macroeconomic factors and financial performance indicators and explaining their variation over time. To serve that purpose, the factors of the macroeconomic environment that are most significant for certain economic activities have been identified and analysed to enable explaining the variation over time patterns of corporate financial indicators. The analysis covers economic performance, i.e. financial performance indicators and their links with macroeconomic factors, in 89 business sectors of Lithuania at a three-digit level of NACE 2 ed. The findings of the research indicate that the unemployment level in the country, the volume of export and import and the GDP are the most important macroeconomic factors that can be used to forecast different profitability, financial leverage, liquidity and other financial performance indicators of individual business sectors or companies. The research has not unfolded any significant differences between business sectors therefore the above factors are considered generic macroeconomic factors enabling to explain financial performance indicators of the 89 business sectors. Hence, special attention has to be paid to identifying and analysing specific factors and assessing the causal link. When established, the set of such factors provides a framework for building of a model to forecast business sector financial indicators.

  20. A nonlinear optimal control approach to stabilization of a macroeconomic development model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Sarno, D.

    2017-11-01

    A nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control approach is proposed for the problem of stabilization of the dynamics of a macroeconomic development model that is known as the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous product cycles. The dynamics of the macroeconomic development model is divided in two parts. The first one describes economic activities in a developed country and the second part describes variation of economic activities in a country under development which tries to modify its production so as to serve the needs of the developed country. The article shows that through control of the macroeconomic model of the developed country, one can finally control the dynamics of the economy in the country under development. The control method through which this is achieved is the nonlinear H-infinity control. The macroeconomic model for the country under development undergoes approximate linearization round a temporary operating point. This is defined at each time instant by the present value of the system's state vector and the last value of the control input vector that was exerted on it. The linearization is based on Taylor series expansion and the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. For the linearized model an H-infinity feedback controller is computed. The controller's gain is calculated by solving an algebraic Riccati equation at each iteration of the control method. The asymptotic stability of the control approach is proven through Lyapunov analysis. This assures that the state variables of the macroeconomic model of the country under development will finally converge to the designated reference values.

  1. Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf

    Understanding the process of economic growth involves comparing competing theoretical models and evaluating their empirical relevance. Our approach is to take the neoclassical stochastic growth model directly to the data and make inferences about the model parameters of interest. In this paper, o...

  2. Los precios en la nueva síntesis neoclásica-keynesiana en macroeconomía

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alexander de Jesús Tobón Arias

    2008-01-01

    ... static macroeconomics. In spite of this, the New Neoclassical Synthesis has the merit of attempting to return to the pre-Keynesian intuitions of Wicksell, which indeed could contribute to the search for not just better...

  3. Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hegerty Scott W.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

  4. Complexity dynamics and Hopf bifurcation analysis based on the first Lyapunov coefficient about 3D IS-LM macroeconomics system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo; Zhan, Xueli

    2017-04-01

    Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad, this paper improves the three-dimensional IS-LM model in macroeconomics, analyzes the equilibrium point of the system and stability conditions, focuses on the parameters and complex dynamic characteristics when Hopf bifurcation occurs in the three-dimensional IS-LM macroeconomics system. In order to analyze the stability of limit cycles when Hopf bifurcation occurs, this paper further introduces the first Lyapunov coefficient to judge the limit cycles, i.e. from a practical view of the business cycle. Numerical simulation results show that within the range of most of the parameters, the limit cycle of 3D IS-LM macroeconomics is stable, that is, the business cycle is stable; with the increase of the parameters, limit cycles becomes unstable, and the value range of the parameters in this situation is small. The research results of this paper have good guide significance for the analysis of macroeconomics system.

  5. Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zulkefly Abdul Karim; Bakri Abdul Karim

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia...

  6. La absorción de la macroeconomía por la microeconomía

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghislain Deleplace

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyze the dominant tendency in the history of macroeconomics. It attempts to identify the two routes that research on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics has followed. On the one hand, the relation between employment, wages and inflation (the route indicated by Friedman; on the other hand, the existence of rigidities or a monetary restriction (the route indicated by Clower.

  7. Parameters of Economic Growth in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shkumbin Misini

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysis the macroeconomic components that influenced macroeconomic growth in a country, more concretely, the focus will be on the measurement of components that affected economic growth under nominal GDP, in Kosovo. We intend to found out which component of nominal GDP has the biggest and the lowest influence on economic growth. Thus, in order to measure it, GDP components must be analysed: consumption measurement, investments measurement, government expenditures measurement and export measurement. These parameters will be measured by analysing their importance in relation to one another, and the major influence on the growth of nominal GDP. The paper includes a graphic analysis of nominal GDP in relation to consumption, investments, governmental expenses and export.

  8. External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in South Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Susan M. Collins; Won Am Park

    1988-01-01

    During 1980-1986, South Korea went from being the world's fourth largest debtor country, in the midst of an economic crisis, to a model of successful adjustment, with high growth rates and a current account surplus. This paper summarizes the findings of an in depth analysis of Korea's performance, focusing on the experience with external debt. We argue that the explanations for Korea's recovery are closely linked to the explanations for Korea's very rapid growth during the 1960s and 1970s. Th...

  9. http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/index.php/formal-education-in-the-european-union-and-its-impact-on-the-macroeconomic-development/

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra TEODORESCU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on various statistical methods to analyze the impact of formal education on the macroeconomic development in Romania and in other EU member states. Generally speaking, the research reveals two trends which are driven, on the one hand, by the need for increased investments in education that generates further benefits and revenue on the long time and contributes to social development, too, and, on the other hand, by the need for quality education, since knowledge plays a key role in the modern society, leading to growth and prosperity. The study begins with the presentation of international developments and challenges in today’s world, especially in the education sector. In order to analyze the relationship between the economic and the educational indicators provided by EUROSTAT and to focus on developments in certain countries, we used data for 28 countries, i.e. 27 EU member states and the EU average, during 2001-2015. The study uses two statistical methods, i.e. the exploratory method (Principal Components Analysis and the inferential method (multiple regression. Performing PCA, we came to the conclusion that gross domestic product is strongly influenced by total public expenditure on education and employment rates of tertiary graduates.

  10. Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility : a Panel Data Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bezooijen, Emiel F.S.; Bikker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06912261X

    In 2015, the European Commission (EC) launched its action plan for the creation of a European Capital Markets Union. The EC aims to return the European economy to sustainable growth and to enhance its shock absorbing capacity by reducing the reliance on bank finance and stimulating financial

  11. Macroeconomic Variables and Money Supply: Evidence from Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    Economist and finance scholars differ on the relationship between money supply and ... connotes that economic growth stimulate increased financial developments. ... Paper Structure. After this brief introduction, the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides a brief theoretical and empirical framework to this study, ...

  12. How accounting information and macroeconomic environment determine credit risk? Evidence from Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasiliki Makri

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study the determinants of credit risk in the Greek banking sector. Credit risk is related to bank asset quality and considered responsible for bank failures. In this context, we investigate how loan quality can be explained by accounting and macroeconomic factors. Aggregate loans loss provisions (LLP are used as a proxy for measuring credit risk. Using quarterly aggregate data that span from 2001Q1 to 2012Q4, we examine a period that covers the recent financial crisis in Greece. The results of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM estimations indicate that LLP is positively affected by unemployment, public debt, loans loss provisions of previous quarter and negatively by capital adequacy ratio. Therefore, our findings support the hypotheses that both macroeconomic environment and accounting information exert significant influence on the credit risk of Greek banking system.

  13. Effects of macroeconomic trends on social security spending due to sickness and disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Jahangir; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Jansson, Bjarne

    2004-11-01

    We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability. We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980-1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor's pensions, and total spending. A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings. Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.

  14. THE IMPACT OF THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE FINAL CONSUMPTION OF THE POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Consuela NECȘULESCU

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, and especially after the beginning of the economic and financial crisis in Romania, significant changes occurred in the macroeconomic indicators conditioning the final consumption of the population. Consequently, in this article, we aimed at analysing the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators (the Gross Domestic Product, - GDP, the inflation rate, the unemployment rate influencing the final consumption of the population, as well as the correlation among these variables. For the analysis of these correlations I proposed using the linear regression model. The analysis of the trend and of the causal links among the studied variables uses annual series from the 2000 – 2012 period. For the statistical processing and the econometric modelling we used software Excel and Eviews software packages.

  15. Taxing CO2 and subsidising biomass: Analysed in a macroeconomic and sectoral model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    . A model of Denmark's energy supply sector is used to analyse the e€ect of a CO2 tax combined with using the tax revenue for biomass subsidies. The energy supply model is linked to a macroeconomic model such that the macroeconomic consequences of tax policies can be analysed along with the consequences......This paper analyses the combination of taxes and subsidies as an instrument to enable a reduction in CO2 emission. The objective of the study is to compare recycling of a CO2 tax revenue as a subsidy for biomass use as opposed to traditional recycling such as reduced income or corporate taxation...... for speci®c sectors such as agriculture. Electricity and heat are produced at heat and power plants utilising fuels which minimise total fuel cost, while the authorities regulate capacity expansion technologies. The e€ect of fuel taxes and subsidies on fuels is very sensitive to the fuel substitution...

  16. Low-Frequency Volatility in China’s Gold Futures Market and Its Macroeconomic Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We extract low- and high-frequency volatility from China’s Shanghai gold futures market using an asymmetric Spline-GARCH (ASP-GARCH model. We then regress monthly low-frequency volatility on selected monthly macroeconomic indicators to study the impact of macroeconomy on gold futures market and to test for excess volatility. Our main result is volatility in China’s Shanghai gold futures market resulting from both macroeconomic fluctuations and investor behaviour. Chinese Consumer Price Index Volatility and US dollar volatility are the two main determinants of low-frequency gold volatility. We also find significant evidence of excess volatility, which can in part be explained in terms of loss-aversive investor behaviour.

  17. Flatness-based control and Kalman filtering for a continuous-time macroeconomic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Busawon, K.; Binns, R.

    2017-11-01

    The article proposes flatness-based control for a nonlinear macro-economic model of the UK economy. The differential flatness properties of the model are proven. This enables to introduce a transformation (diffeomorphism) of the system's state variables and to express the state-space description of the model in the linear canonical (Brunowsky) form in which both the feedback control and the state estimation problem can be solved. For the linearized equivalent model of the macroeconomic system, stabilizing feedback control can be achieved using pole placement methods. Moreover, to implement stabilizing feedback control of the system by measuring only a subset of its state vector elements the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used. This consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized equivalent model of the financial system and of an inverse transformation that is based again on differential flatness theory. The asymptotic stability properties of the control scheme are confirmed.

  18. Granger Causality between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Plíhal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate informational efficiency of the stock market in Germany. Granger causality between the stock market and the selected macroeconomic variables is investigated by bivariate analysis using Toda-Yamamoto (1995 approach. This study focuses on monthly data from January 1999 to September 2015, and the stock market is represented by blue chip stock market index DAX. Investigated macroeconomic indicators include industrial production, inflation, money supply, interest rate, trade balance and exchange rate. Stock market Granger-causes industrial production and interest rate, and is therefore leading indicator of these variables. Between money supply and stock prices is Granger causality in both directions. Other variables seem to be independent on development of the stock market. We do not find any violation of Efficient market hypothesis which indicates that the stock market in Germany is informational efficient.

  19. Macroeconomic control, political costs and earnings management: Evidence from Chinese listed real estate companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghua Chen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Firms in China have faced high political costs during China’s economic transition, because they are affected by macroeconomic policies. However, research to date has offered no consistent conclusions on the relationship between political costs and earnings management in China. This study tests whether real estate firms attempt to decrease earnings during periods of macroeconomic control, using variables related to the national real estate market as proxies for political costs. We find that political costs are negatively related to earnings management in listed real estate firms. In addition, we find that non-state-owned enterprises utilized more income-decreasing accruals during this period. Our results are consistent with the political costs hypothesis.

  20. Bank Stock Returns in Responding the Contribution of Fundamental and Macroeconomic Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridwan Nurazi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to examine the effect of financial fundamentals information using CAMELS ratios and macroeconomics variables surrogated by interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate toward stock return. By employing panel data analysis (Pooled Least Squared Model, the results reveal that several financial ratios perform a bit contrary to the theory, in which the ratio of CAR shows positive sign but insignificantly contributes to stock returns. Also, the ratio of NPL does not affect the return. In fact, ROE and LDR positively and significantly contribute toward banks’ stock return. Meanwhile, NIM and BOPO show negative signs. The other macroeconomic variables, interest rate (IR, exchange rate (ER and inflation rate (INF are consistent with the a priori expectation, in which those variables negatively and significantly contribute to stock return of 16 banks, for the observation period from 2002 to 2011 in the Indonesian banking sector.

  1. MACROECONOMIC CLIMATE AND THE SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE COMPANIES IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Rădulescu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium size companies (SMEs represent the engine of the economy in the member states of the European Union. In Romania, SMEs entered the post-crisis cycle in 2013 after a severe adjustment process under the impact of the Great Recession. The economic performance of SMEs is strongly influenced by the macroeconomic climate. The important role of SMEs in the economy has determined the Romanian government to implement several measures in order to support their activity.The present paper highlights the mid-term macroeconomic outlook for Romania, as well as the recent developments related to SMEs, along with the main measures implemented by the Government over the past years in order to support the development of these companies.

  2. Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Fu

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts to shareholders. A stochastic discount factor motivated by the consumption-based asset pricing model is utilized. A single macroeconomic factor, namely the output gap determines the non-fundamental component of stock prices. A resulting trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR model of stock prices, broad dividends, and the output gap shows evidence of cointegration in the DJIA and S&P 500 index data. Nonetheless, a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveals existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in S&P 500 data during the late 1990s.

  3. La macroeconomía ortodoxa a la luz de Popper

    OpenAIRE

    Iván H. Ayala; Alfonso Palacio Vera

    2014-01-01

    La macroeconomía ortodoxa ha estado dominada durante las últimas cuatro décadas por la llamada “hipótesis de expectativas racionales” (HER) que conlle-va el supuesto implícito de que las economías de mercado son inherentemente estables. A su vez, la HER constituye un elemento esencial de la llamada “Nueva Síntesis Neoclásica” en macroeconomía que también ha desempeñado un papel dominante tanto en la teoría macroeconómica como en la política económica durante las últimas dos décadas. En este t...

  4. The role of money in four UK macroeconomic models: a comparison and an evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Stout, Tina Jane

    1988-01-01

    The study compares and evaluates the role of money in four macroeconomic models - the H.M. Treasury, the London Business School, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and a post-Keynesian model. This study can be subdivided into two parts - chapters two and three analyse the historical and theoretical background of monetary economics, whilst chapters four and five examine how the models capture various aspects of money. \\ud \\ud Chapter two analyses the nature of financial in...

  5. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Pei

    Full Text Available Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency. Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

  6. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

  7. European macroeconomic imbalances at a sectorial level: Evidence from German and Spanish food industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Aznar

    2018-02-01

    Originality/value: The last decade has accentuated the macroeconomic differences, in terms of long term interest rates or levels of unemployment between the core of Europe, Germany, and the periphery, including countries like Spain. This research is one the first ones in analyzing how these differences are affecting financial performance and structural differences in a particular industry, that is one of the most important exporters of the European Union.

  8. REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union

    OpenAIRE

    Asongu, Simplice A

    2013-01-01

    With the spectre of the Euro crisis hunting embryonic monetary unions, we use a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze REERs imbalances and examine whether the movements in the aggregate real exchange rates are consistent with the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals in the proposed West African Monetary Union (WAMU). Using both country-oriented and WAMU panel-based specifications, we show that the long-run behavior of the REERs can be explained by fluctuations in the terms of trad...

  9. Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

  10. Impact of Macro-economic Factors on Deposit Formation by Ukrainian Population

    OpenAIRE

    Shevaldina Valentyna H.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the article is detection of interconnections between the common economic processes and formation of bank deposits by population. The article builds a correlation and regression model of complex assessment of interconnection between macro-economic factors, savings behaviour of population and level of deposits of population in banks for two hour horizons: short-term, which is characterised with deployment of crisis phenomena both in global economy and in Ukrainian economy and the me...

  11. On “open-economy macroeconomics using models of closed systems”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romar Correa

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available International macroeconomic crises occur because of the enlargement of the dimension of the state space within which economies operate. Our focus is the recent financial turbulence worldwide in which (i banks had a role to play and (ii whole systems collapsed. We validate these propositions in the context of the qualitative theory of differential equations. The economic framework used is that of Wynne Godley.

  12. The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in a monetary union: the case of Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Massimiliano Pisani; Andrea Gerali; Lorenzo Forni

    2010-01-01

    We simulate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of different fiscal consolidation scenarios in Italy using a medium scale two-areas dynamic general equilibrium currency-union model. Differently from similar models, ours is rich in the terms of fiscal features. We assume distortionary taxes (on labor income, capital income and consumption) and welfare-enhancing public expenditure. We distinguish between public spending on final goods and services, public employment and transfers to hous...

  13. Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability

    OpenAIRE

    Athanasoglou, Panayiotis; Brissimis, Sophocles; Delis, Matthaios

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the effect of bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability, using an empirical framework that incorporates the traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) hypothesis. To account for profit persistence, we apply a GMM technique to a panel of Greek banks that covers the period 1985-2001. The estimation results show that profitability persists to a moderate extent, indicating that departures from perfectly competiti...

  14. For an Olive Wreath? Olympic Games and Anticipation Effects in Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Bruckner; Evi Pappa

    2011-01-01

    We examine the effects that hosting and bidding for the Olympic Games has on macroeconomic outcomes in a panel of 184 countries spanning the period 1950-2006. Actual hosting of the Games generates positive investment, consumption, and output responses before, during, and after hosting. We detect anticipation effects: (i) bidding for the Olympic Games generates positive investment, consumption, and output responses at the time of the bidding; (ii) bidding for the Games has a transitory level e...

  15. For an olive wreath? : Olympic Games and anticipation effects in macroeconomic

    OpenAIRE

    BRÜCKNER, Markus; Pappa, Evi

    2011-01-01

    The hosting and bidding for the Olympic Games is a natural experiment to test for anticipation effects in macroeconomics. We examine these effects using panel data for 184 countries during the period 1950-2006. We find that hosting the Games generates positive investment, consumption, and output responses already before the hosting of the Games. We also detect significant anticipation effects in countries that bid for the Games. While bidding for the Games has a transitory level effect, hosti...

  16. Optimal control and optimal trajectories of regional macroeconomic dynamics based on the Pontryagin maximum principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulgakov, V. K.; Strigunov, V. V.

    2009-05-01

    The Pontryagin maximum principle is used to prove a theorem concerning optimal control in regional macroeconomics. A boundary value problem for optimal trajectories of the state and adjoint variables is formulated, and optimal curves are analyzed. An algorithm is proposed for solving the boundary value problem of optimal control. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated by computing an optimal control and the corresponding optimal trajectories.

  17. Examining the impact of macro-economic conditions on income inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Jantti, Markus; Jenkins, Stephen P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper proposes a new approach for analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the income distribution. The conventional method of analysis is regression of summary inequality indices on variables such as the unemployment and inflation rates. Building on the lessons from recent advances in time-series econometrics, we suggest instead that one should first fit a parametric functional form to the income distribution for each year, and then model the time series of model par...

  18. Macroeconomic Spillover and Single Currency Adoption: An Inter-regional Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Agyapong, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The merging and sustenance of the economies of different countries require the integration of several aspects of those economies, including price levels and money market activities. The member countries within the West African Monetary Zone have resolved to introduce a single currency, the ECO. It is therefore, necessary to assess their readiness by testing how key macroeconomic indicators from these countries relate. Using the recent innovative accounting methodology to test if there are dif...

  19. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-03-31

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

  20. Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial europe: new evidence from wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F

    2015-01-01

    The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60-80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15-35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.

  1. The effect of macroeconomic conditions on the care decisions of the employed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Danny R; Khaliq, Amir A

    2014-02-01

    Medical care utilization has been found to be affected indirectly by changes in economic conditions through associated changes in employment or insurance status. However, if individuals interpret external macroeconomic conditions as employment risk, they may alter decisions to seek care even if they remain both employed and insured. To examine the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and the medical care usage of Americans who are both employed and insured. Restricting the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1995 to 2008 to respondents whose employment status and insurance status did not change, we employed a fixed-effect Poisson model to examine the association between state average annual unemployment rates and the utilization of 12 medical services. The average annual state unemployment rate was found to be a significant factor in hospital outpatient visits (P macroeconomic conditions are an important factor in the medical decisions of employed and insured individuals. Thus, policy changes that increase access among the unemployed or uninsured may mitigate this employment risk effect and create incentives that potentially alter the utilization decisions among those currently both employed and insured.

  2. Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ali Nasir

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The association between economic and financial stabilities and influence of macroeconomic policies on the financial sector creates scope of active policy role in financial stability. As a contribution to the existing body of knowledge, this study has analysed the implications of macroeconomic policy interaction/coordination for financial stability, proxied by financial assets, i.e. equity and bonds price oscillation. The critical review and analysis of the existing literature on the subject suggests that there is also ample evidence of interdependence between monetary and fiscal policies and this interrelation necessitates coordination between them for the sake of financial stability. There is also a case for analysing the symmetry of financial markets responses to macroeconomic policy interaction. On methodological and empirical grounds, it is vital to test the robustness of policy recommendations to overcome the limitation of a single empirical approach (Jeffrey–Lindley’s paradox. Hence, the Frequentist and Bayesian approaches should be used in commentary manner. The policy interaction and optimal policy combination should also be analysed in the context of institutional design and major financial events to gain insight into the implications of policy interaction in the periods of stable economic and financial environments as well as period of financial and economic distress.

  3. Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Senna, Viviane; Souza, Adriano Mendonça

    2016-11-01

    Since the 1988 Federal Constitution social assistance has become a duty of the State and a right to everyone, guaranteeing the population a dignified life. To ensure these rights federal government has created programs that can supply the main needs of people in extreme poverty. Among the programs that provide social assistance to the population, the best known are the ;Bolsa Família; Program - PBF and the Continuous Cash Benefit - Continuous Cash Benefit - BPC. This research's main purpose is to analyze the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables and the Federal government spending on social welfare policy in the period from January 2004 to August 2014. The used methodologies are the Vector auto regression model - VAR and Error Correction Vector - VEC. The conclusion, was that there is a meaningful relationship between macroeconomic variables and social assistance programs. This indicates that if the government takes a more abrupt resolution in changing the existing programs it will result in fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables interfering with the stability of Brazilian domestic economy up to twelve months.

  4. An empirical analysis of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors affecting liquidity of Indian banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamika Singh

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates bank-specific and macroeconomic factors that determine the liquidity of Indian banks. To explore the association, we perform OLS, fixed effect and random effect estimates on a data set of 59 banks from 2000 to 2013. Studied bank-specific factors include bank size, profitability, cost of funding, capital adequacy and deposits. GDP, inflation and unemployment are the macroeconomic factors considered. We also perform liquidity trend analysis of Indian banks based on ownership. Findings reveal that bank ownership affects liquidity of banks. Based on panel data analysis, we suggest that bank-specific (except cost of funding and macroeconomic (except unemployment factors significantly affect bank liquidity. These include bank size, deposits, profitability, capital adequacy, GDP and inflation. Further, bank size and GDP were found to have a negative effect on bank liquidity. On the other hand, deposits, profitability, capital adequacy and inflation showed a positive effect on bank liquidity. Cost of funding and unemployment showed an insignificant effect on bank liquidity. Our paper highlights new facts for enhanced understanding of liquidity in emerging economies like India.

  5. Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-01-01

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises. PMID:21483794

  6. A kinetic approach to some quasi-linear laws of macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gligor, M.; Ignat, M.

    2002-11-01

    Some previous works have presented the data on wealth and income distributions in developed countries and have found that the great majority of population is described by an exponential distribution, which results in idea that the kinetic approach could be adequate to describe this empirical evidence. The aim of our paper is to extend this framework by developing a systematic kinetic approach of the socio-economic systems and to explain how linear laws, modelling correlations between macroeconomic variables, may arise in this context. Firstly we construct the Boltzmann kinetic equation for an idealised system composed by many individuals (workers, officers, business men, etc.), each of them getting a certain income and spending money for their needs. To each individual a certain time variable amount of money is associated this meaning him/her phase space coordinate. In this way the exponential distribution of money in a closed economy is explicitly found. The extension of this result, including states near the equilibrium, give us the possibility to take into account the regular increase of the total amount of money, according to the modern economic theories. The Kubo-Green-Onsager linear response theory leads us to a set of linear equations between some macroeconomic variables. Finally, the validity of such laws is discussed in relation with the time reversal symmetry and is tested empirically using some macroeconomic time series.

  7. Evaluation of the St. Lucia geothermal resource: macroeconomic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burris, A.E.; Trocki, L.K.; Yeamans, M.K.; Kolstad, C.D.

    1984-08-01

    A macroeconometric model describing the St. Lucian economy was developed using 1970 to 1982 economic data. Results of macroeconometric forecasts for the period 1983 through 1985 show an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for 1983 and 1984 with a decline in 1985. The rate of population growth is expected to exceed GDP growth so that a small decline in per capita GDP will occur. We forecast that garment exports will increase, providing needed employment and foreign exchange. To obtain a longer-term but more general outlook on St. Lucia's economy, and to evaluate the benefit of geothermal energy development, we applied a nonlinear programming model. The model maximizes discounted cumulative consumption.

  8. Monetary System and Macroeconomic Policy in Greece, 1833-2003

    OpenAIRE

    Sofia Lazaretou

    2004-01-01

    Currency is one of the most important of social and economic institutions. Evidently, the interrelation between monetary and economic power and stability is reciprocal. A strong and stable economy facilitates the achievement and maintenance of monetary stability; conversely, monetary stability contributes to the smooth operation of markets and transactions, and promotes savings, investment and economic growth. This paper describes the evolution of the Greek monetary system. Both international...

  9. Vietnam’s Export Competitiveness: Trade and Macroeconomic Policy Linkages

    OpenAIRE

    Lord, Montague

    2002-01-01

    The study aims to identify macro and micro-economic measures that promote the international competitiveness and export growth of Vietnam, thereby raising living standards and improving welfare. Apart from investigating macro and micro-economic aspects affecting the trade environment, the study describes key characteristics of Vietnam’s export structure and performance over the last decade based on national and partner-country trade information, it analyzes static and dynamic aspects of Vietna...

  10. Association of Pediatric Abusive Head Trauma Rates With Macroeconomic Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Joanne N; French, Benjamin; Fromkin, Janet; Fakeye, Oludolapo; Scribano, Philip V; Letson, Megan M; Makoroff, Kathi L; Feldman, Kenneth W; Fabio, Anthony; Berger, Rachel

    2016-04-01

    We aimed to examine abusive head trauma (AHT) incidence before, during and after the recession of 2007-2009 in 3 US regions and assess the association of economic measures with AHT incidence. Data for children <5 years old diagnosed with AHT between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2012, in 3 regions were linked to county-level economic data using an ecologic time series analysis. Associations between county-level AHT rates and recession period as well as employment growth, mortgage delinquency, and foreclosure rates were examined using zero-inflated Poisson regression models. During the 9-year period, 712 children were diagnosed with AHT. The mean rate of AHT per 100,000 child-years increased from 9.8 before the recession to 15.6 during the recession before decreasing to 12.8 after the recession. The AHT rates after the recession were higher than the rates before the recession (incidence rate ratio 1.31, P = .004) but lower than rates during the recession (incidence rate ratio 0.78, P = .005). There was no association between the AHT rate and employment growth, mortgage delinquency rates, or foreclosure rates. In the period after the recession, AHT rate was lower than during the recession period yet higher than the level before the recession, suggesting a lingering effect of the economic stress of the recession on maltreatment risk. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. An econometric analysis of the investment climate and growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The slow economic growth rate experienced by most developing countries, including Nigeria in the late 1970s and the early 1980s, has now manifested itself in the form of macro-economic imbalances, a wide saving/investment disparity, a steep inflationary spiral, and a high debt overhang. Hence, the study examines ...

  12. Domestic resource mobilization and long term economic growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this paper is to examine the long term effects of domestic resource mobilization (DRM) on economic growth. This study used macroeconomic data for a period of 20 years spanning 1996 to 2015. By estimating the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, Error Correction Model (ECM) and Impulse ...

  13. analysis of domestic debt: implication for economic growth in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF EKWUEME

    macroeconomic variables, we employed the error correction model procedures following an examination of properties of the time series using unit root and ... such debt spiral out of control. The evolution of government borrowing ... and endogenous growth models {Smith, et al. (2003) and Turnovsky, (2000)}. Therefore in.

  14. Economic Growth and Development in the Undergraduate Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acemoglu, Daron

    2013-01-01

    A central theme of this article is that economics instructors should spend more time teaching about economic growth and development at the undergraduate level because the topic is of interest to students, is less abstract than other macroeconomic topics, and is the focus of exciting research in economics. Facts and data can be presented to…

  15. THE INFLUENCE OF HOME COUNTRY MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON INWARD CROSS-BORDER MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS: THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sehleanu Mariana

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Expanding abroad and entering on foreign markets is a natural step in the process of growth and development of firms. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions represent, currently, an important tool in the competitive struggle, which is increasingly intense due to the globalization of economies, and also the driving force behind the growth of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI flows globally. In Romania, the share of cross-border mergers and acquisitions inflows in the total FDI inflows increased progressively, reaching 46,6% in 2006, when the highest value of these transactions was registered (5.308 million dollars, according to UNCTAD. The aim of this empirical research is to study the correlation between the number of inward cross-border mergers acquisitions and a series of other variables, considered factors of influence, over the period 1992-2013. Using simple regression models, the study reveals that economic factors such as Gross domestic product (GDP, stock market capitalization (as a percentage of GDP, interest rate, exchange rate, M2 monetary aggregate and inflation have an important role in explaining cross-border mergers and acquisitions inflows. Between the number of inward cross-border mergers and acquisitions and GDP, M2 monetary aggregate, market capitalization, respectively the exchange rate, there is a direct and linear correlation and between the number of inward mergers and acquisitions and the interest rate, respectively the inflation, there is an inverse linear correlation. The research conducted reveals the important role played by macroeconomic factors with regard to the cross-border mergers and acquisitions inflows, as an entry mode of FDI in Romania.

  16. Macroecology Meets Macroeconomics: Resource Scarcity and Global Sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James H; Burger, Joseph R; Burnside, William R; Chang, Michael; Davidson, Ana D; Fristoe, Trevor S; Hamilton, Marcus J; Hammond, Sean T; Kodric-Brown, Astrid; Mercado-Silva, Norman; Nekola, Jeffrey C; Okie, Jordan G

    2014-04-01

    The current economic paradigm, which is based on increasing human population, economic development, and standard of living, is no longer compatible with the biophysical limits of the finite Earth. Failure to recover from the economic crash of 2008 is not due just to inadequate fiscal and monetary policies. The continuing global crisis is also due to scarcity of critical resources. Our macroecological studies highlight the role in the economy of energy and natural resources: oil, gas, water, arable land, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, fisheries, and wood. As the modern industrial technological-informational economy expanded in recent decades, it grew by consuming the Earth's natural resources at unsustainable rates. Correlations between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of energy and other resources across nations and over time demonstrate how economic growth and development depend on "nature's capital". Decades-long trends of decreasing per capita consumption of multiple important commodities indicate that overexploitation has created an unsustainable bubble of population and economy.

  17. Macroeconomics, (Adult) Education, and Poverty Eradication in Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nhamo, Senia; Nhamo, Godwell

    2006-05-01

    The Millennium Summit held in New York in September 2000 outlined the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The first of these involves the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, setting two targets: halving by 2015 the percentage of the world's populace in 1990 with income less than US-1 a day (i.e., cutting this percentage from 27.9 to 14%); and halving the share of people who suffer from hunger. As for education, the MDGs seek to ensure that all children can complete primary schooling by 2015. Drawing on examples from selected southern African countries, the present study examines the need to strengthen economic support for (adult) education as an instrument of poverty eradication. It argues that human capital is one of the fundamental determinants of economic growth, and that this economic resource is essentially determined in both qualitative and quantitative regards by education.

  18. SME contributions to employment, job creation, and growth in the Arab world

    OpenAIRE

    Nasr, Sahar; Rostom, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Recent economic and political developments have highlighted a challenge shared across the Arab region of generating employment, promoting inclusive growth, and improving competitiveness. In the short run, weakened macroeconomic fundamentals in the developing economies of the Middle East and North Africa are a key challenge. The region's main challenge is to achieve sustainable growth that ...

  19. To Save or to Consume: Linking Growth Theory with the Keynesian Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Yun-kwong

    2007-01-01

    In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, "Should we save or should we consume?" In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in…

  20. Massification and Diversification as Complementary Strategies for Economic Growth in Developed and Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyndorf, Darryl; Glass, Chris R.

    2016-01-01

    Numerous microeconomic studies demonstrate the significant individual returns to tertiary education; however, little empirical evidence exists regarding the effects of higher education massification and diversification agendas on long-term macroeconomic growth. The researchers used the Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model to tertiary education…

  1. Macroeconomic landscape of refractive surgery in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, Kevin J

    2015-07-01

    This review examines the economic history of refractive surgery and the decline of laser-assisted in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK) in the USA, and the emergence of refractive cataract surgery as an area of growth. Since it peaked in 2007 at 1.4 million procedures per year, LASIK has declined 50% in the USA, whereas refractive cataract surgery, including presbyopia-correcting intraocular lenses (IOLs), astigmatism-correcting IOLs, and femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery, has grown to 350 000 procedures per year, beginning in 2003. Patients are price-sensitive and responsive to publicity (good or bad) about refractive surgery and refractive cataract surgery. LASIK's decline has been partially offset by the emergence of refractive cataract surgery. About 11% of all cataract surgery in the USA involves presbyopia-correcting IOLs, astigmatism-correcting IOLs, or a femtosecond laser. From the surgeon's perspective, there are high barriers to entry into the marketplace for refractive surgery and refractive cataract surgery due to the high capital cost of excimer and femtosecond lasers, the high skill level required to deliver spectacular results to demanding patients who pay out of pocket, and the necessity to perform a high volume of surgeries to satisfy both of these requirements. Probably, less than 7% of US cataract surgeons can readily meet all of these requirements.

  2. Macroecology Meets Macroeconomics: Resource Scarcity and Global Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James H.; Burger, Joseph R.; Burnside, William R.; Chang, Michael; Davidson, Ana D.; Fristoe, Trevor S.; Hamilton, Marcus J.; Hammond, Sean T.; Kodric-Brown, Astrid; Mercado-Silva, Norman; Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Okie, Jordan G.

    2013-01-01

    The current economic paradigm, which is based on increasing human population, economic development, and standard of living, is no longer compatible with the biophysical limits of the finite Earth. Failure to recover from the economic crash of 2008 is not due just to inadequate fiscal and monetary policies. The continuing global crisis is also due to scarcity of critical resources. Our macroecological studies highlight the role in the economy of energy and natural resources: oil, gas, water, arable land, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, fisheries, and wood. As the modern industrial technological-informational economy expanded in recent decades, it grew by consuming the Earth’s natural resources at unsustainable rates. Correlations between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of energy and other resources across nations and over time demonstrate how economic growth and development depend on “nature’s capital”. Decades-long trends of decreasing per capita consumption of multiple important commodities indicate that overexploitation has created an unsustainable bubble of population and economy. PMID:24882946

  3. The influence of macroeconomic factors to the dynamics of stock exchange in the republic of Kazakhstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakizada Uteulievna Niyazbekova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the influence of macroeconomic factors on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange Market by using data from 2005 to 2014. Engle-Granger cointegration test has shown that stock index is cointegrated with the exchange rate, interest rate, CPI and oil price. Vector error correction model has confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the stock index has a long-term equilibrium relationship. Moreover, empirical results have shown that stock index can be used as a leading indicator of the economic situation in Kazakhstan. Therefore, the authors decided to consider the impact of major macroeconomic indicators to the dynamics of the stock market of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Engle-Granger cointegration test results show that the following variables such as exchange rate, 10-years long-term bond rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price are cointegrated with stock index, which means that there is a long-term relationship between this stock market index and these variables. With the help of econometric models, the authors have found the factors such as the exchange rate, the 10-year long-term bonds rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price (these factors have the long-term relationship with stock market index. Changes in the dynamics of the stock market index in Kazakhstan are caused by changes in the dynamics of Central bank's reserves and export. The analysis has shown that the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the index reflects the situation in the real sector of the economy remains dependent on world oil prices, the volume of exports and the rate of the national currency

  4. Macroeconomic Determinants of IPO Activity in Poland between 1993 and 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Kovandová

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: This study deals with recent primary stock market developments in Poland and aims to indicate the influence of local macroeconomic indicators on IPO numbers over the period of 1993 to 2012. Methodology/methods: Descriptive statistics are used to analyse capital market and IPO developments and the Spearman correlation analysis identifies the relations between macroeconomic determinants and the IPO numbers. The data were evaluated at the significance level of α=5%. The entire statistical evaluation was performed by Statistica.CZ, Version 12. Scientific aim: The scientific aim of this article is to explore external factors that may influence the decision of enterprises to go public in the Polish capital market and thus to enlarge the current IPO literature with an analysis the following issue: What are the key local macroeconomic determinants of going public on the market in question? The number of variables used in this paper is greater than those considered in previous Polish IPO studies. Moreover, we focus on IPO activities between 1993 and 2012 and thus extend the existing time-series. Findings: The results of the correlation analysis can be summarized as follows. First of all, the hypothesis that the business cycle and stock index returns have explanatory power for the number of IPOs could not be supported by empirical evidence. On the other hand, we found empirical support that the reference interest rate affected the IPO numbers. Conclusions: The hypothesis that the reference interest rate has explanatory power for IPO numbers in the Polish capital market could be supported by empirical evidence. On the other hand we could not confirm any significant lagged effects concerning the relationship between other explanatory variables and the dependent variable. Therefore, our results suggest only a partial consistency with the theory and findings of previous Polish IPO studies.

  5. Methodological Bases for Ranking the European Union Countries in Terms of Macroeconomic Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tymoshenko Olena V.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental contradictions of existing methodical approaches to assessing the level of the state economic security have been substantiated and proposals on the introduction of a unified methodology for its assessment, which would be acceptable for use at the international level or for a specific cluster of countries, have been developed. Based on the conducted researches it has been found that the there are no unified signs for such classification of countries. To determine the most significant coefficients and critical values of the indicators of economic security, it is appropriate that the countries should be grouped in terms of the level of the economic development proposed by the UN Commission and the IMF. Analysis of the economic security level has been conducted for the countries-members of the European Union as a separate cluster of countries on the example of macroeconomic security indicators. Based on the evaluation it has been found that the proposed list of indicators and their critical values is economically sound and built on the principle of adequacy, representativeness and comprehensiveness. In 2004 the most secure countries of the EU corresponding to the macroeconomic security standards were Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and as in 2014 the percentage of absolutely secure countries decreased from 14.3 to 7.1%, only Denmark and Sweden remained in the ranking. During the analyzed period Bulgaria and Croatia got into the risk zone, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania were in a danger zone. In 2014 Ukraine in terms of its macroeconomic security was in a critical state, which testified about serious structural and system imbalances in its development.

  6. THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON COMPETITION POLICY EFFECTIVENESS WITHIN EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragoi Ionut

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, more and more countries have enacted competition laws, understanding the importance of this process in providing a normal functioning of the economy. Analyzing competition policy effectiveness is important not only because of the recent extent of the phenomenon, but also because of the impact of competition policy effectiveness on economic development and, in the current economic climate, on the economic recovery process. For this reason, quantitative evaluation for competition policy effectiveness became very useful as data handling and understanding the whole phenomenon are easier this way and an international perspective is provided. This was made possible by various international institutions that have created a system of aggregated indicators for the evaluation of competition law enforcement and competition advocacy (perceived effectiveness. The purpose of our research is to identify the macroeconomic factors that influence the effectiveness of competition law implementation within the European Union Member States. We have tasted the influence of 13 macroeconomic, using panel data methodology and data from the last four years. We obtained ß coefficients statistically significant only for 11 of them. The results are consistent with prior analyzed studies and economic logic: positive influence from market division, intensity of local competition, ethical behavior of firms, strength of auditing and reporting standards, efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, protection of minority shareholders’ interests, public trust of politicians, economic dimension and market size and negative influence from corruption level and diversion of public funds. Based on the achieved results we can perform an analysis of principal components leading to causal space reduction with minimal information loss and without informational redundancy, creating the premises for building a model that explains competition policy

  7. MACROECONOMIC KALECKI’S MODEL IN VIEW OF AN INVESTMENT TEMPORARY LAG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduard A. Gevorkyan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The dependence of the gross domestic product on time ( Y ( t in macroeconomic Kalecki’s model in view of an investment temporary lag in the case of periodic dependence of the consumption function on time is investigated. As a result of solutions of linear ordinary differential equation and differential equation with lagging argument an analytical expressions for the Y ( t is received. Some aspects of influence of a temporary lag on character of variation of the function Y ( t are shown.

  8. The Probability of Default Under IFRS 9: Multi-period Estimation and Macroeconomic Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Vaněk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a straightforward, flexible and intuitive computational framework for the multi-period probability of default estimation incorporating macroeconomic forecasts. The concept is based on Markov models, the estimated economic adjustment coefficient and the official economic forecasts of the Czech National Bank. The economic forecasts are taken into account in a separate step to better distinguish between idiosyncratic and systemic risk. This approach is also attractive from the interpretational point of view. The proposed framework can be used especially when calculating lifetime expected credit losses under IFRS 9.

  9. Macroeconomic Determinants of Migrants’ Remittances: Evidence from a Panel of Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safaa Tabit

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to assess the various macroeconomic determinants of migrants’ remittances for a panel of 22 developing countries highly dependent observed over the period 1990 to 2014. The results underline the importance of the origin country’s GDP, the host country’s GDP, inflation, financial development and institutional quality as major determinants of personal remittances. However, the migrant stock, the official exchange rate and the real interest rate in the country of origin do not have a significant influence on remittances received by the panel considered.

  10. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    plans, etc. In this article an integrated model system is extended to include emissions of the greenhouse gasses, CH4 and N2O and the acidifying substance, NH3, from the Danish agricultural production. The model system comprises a macroeconomic model of the Danish economy, a Danish agricultural sector...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector....

  11. The Macroeconomic Outlook and the Impact of the Global Crisis in the Euro Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mioara CHIRITA

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides general analysis and evolution of macroeconomic and financial indicators in the euro area, during the recent crisis 2008-2009. The financial market turmoil that began in 2007 led to a severe global economic downturn. The causes of the crisis, the effects on global financial markets, and the spillover to the economy are permanently examined by the analysts, but the final conclusions are not clear yet. The conclusion of this paper is that the global activity is recovering at varying speeds in some countries, tepidly in many of the advanced economies but solidly in most emerging and developing economies.

  12. THE RISK IN MANAGEMENT, DERIVATION FROM INTERACTION BETWEN THE MICRO AND THE MACRO-ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costel Ciocea

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The managerial activity becomes more and more complex, together with the development of the markets on both national and international levels. The manager is subject to information pressure that come from the micro and macro-economics field and the way in which they succeed in being smoothly merged by the managerial team is proof of the activity development of the companies. The present crisis, which has its roots in a financiar crisis, has grown rapidly and transformed into a general economic crisis. The hereby study comprises these aspects and tries in an almost general manner to offer to the managerial activities an adequate support.

  13. Micro-foundations for macroeconomics: New set-up based on statistical physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

    2016-12-01

    Modern macroeconomics is built on "micro foundations." Namely, optimization of micro agent such as consumer and firm is explicitly analyzed in model. Toward this goal, standard model presumes "the representative" consumer/firm, and analyzes its behavior in detail. However, the macroeconomy consists of 107 consumers and 106 firms. For the purpose of analyzing such macro system, it is meaningless to pursue the micro behavior in detail. In this respect, there is no essential difference between economics and physics. The method of statistical physics can be usefully applied to the macroeconomy, and provides Keynesian economics with correct micro-foundations.

  14. An Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Real Sector Confidence Index: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmail Canöz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional finance theories are not sufficient to explain investor’s sentiment and psychology. This situation leads to emergence of Behavioral Finance. The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic factors affecting Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT. Within this scope, monthly data for the period between 2007:01 and 2017:03 is analyzed by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. According to the results of the analysis, CBRT Composite Leading Indicators Index, Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry (CURMI, Turkish Lira Reference Interest Rate (TRLIBOR and BIST100 Return Index affect RSCI.

  15. Capire la realtà macroeconomica: una sfida* ( The challenge of macroeconomic understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. MALINVAUD

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Il documento è un contributo ad una serie di ricordi e riflessioni sulle esperienze professionali di illustri economisti con Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review iniziati nel 1979. In esso Edmond Malinvaud descrive le varie sfide che percepito nel cercare di capire macroeconomiaThe paper is a contribution to a series of recollections and reflections on the professional experiences of distinguished economists which the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review started in 1979. In it Edmond Malinvaud describes the various challenges he perceived in trying to understand macroeconomics.JEL: B31, E00

  16. Un modelo Macroeconométrico para la Economía Colombiana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Arturo Birchenall

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Este documento analiza un modelo macroeconométrico de corto plazo para la economía colombiana, con el fin de evaluar el impacto de procesos de ajuste y estabilización. Se basa en una estructura que reconoce no neutralidades por rigideces de precios y descompone la economía a través de oferta y demanda agregada. El modelo se estima por diversos métodos para el período comprendido entre 1977 y 1998 con una frecuencia trimestral, con el fin de realizar proyecciones para períodos de uno y dos años.

  17. QMM – A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy. Version 2.0

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi

    implemented in the forecasting round for the Monetary Bulletin 2006/1 in March 2006. QMM is used by the Bank for forecasting and various policy simulations and therefore plays a key role as an organisational framework for viewing the medium-term future when formulating monetary policy at the Bank. This paper......This paper documents and describes Version 2.0 of the Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Central Bank of Iceland (QMM). QMM and the underlying quarterly database have been under construction since 2001 at the Research and Forecasting Division of the Economics Department at the Bank and was first...

  18. The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Financial Expenditures and Development of the Marketing Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This article diagnoses the selected macroeconomic factors, such as: rate of unemployment, inflation, GDP, spending power of the households, and characterizes their indirect impact on the enterprises' market research expenditures and research industry turnovers. The problems of financial expenditures, i.e., their allocation on the marketing researches (depending on the supply and demand market situational perspective in a given market are also discussed. Moreover, as indicated in the article, enterprises are forced not only to cut their financial sources on the marketing research projects in unfavorable economic situation, but they choose different methods of the research.

  19. Management of Internal and External Factors of Decisive Policies in Agriculture in Macroeconomic Crisis Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanghele Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of internal and external factors directly influencing the decisions implemented by the managerial act at the macroeconomic analysis of the relations within this branch and sub-branches, of the disturbing factors with the implementation of some decisions to stop the phenomena of soil degradation and agricultural land and to preserve and develop their productive potential, a production surplus for ash consumption and ensuring a productive production for industrial consumption with the result of gaining added value and net profit as much as possible for the exploitation farms.

  20. THE NON-GOVERNAMENTAL CREDIT IN MACRO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT: THE ROMANIAN CASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion PARTACHI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The global economic crisis strongly hit the Romanian economy in general and the credit market in particular, the latter stopped its development as had showed some signs of regression after September 2008. The disequilibrium models,pioneered by Maddala G. and Forrest N.some forty years ago, are used to econometrically describe, as precisely as possible, the evolution of the Romanian credit market in the general macroeconomic context of the years of economic crisis and post-crisis, 2009-2014. The main new scientific result of this paper is represented by the estimation and validation of a disequilibrium model for the Romanian credit market in this interval.

  1. Out of sight but not out of mind: Home countries' macroeconomic volatilities and immigrants' mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke Brian

    2018-01-01

    We provide the first empirical evidence that better economic performances by immigrants' countries of origin, as measured by lower consumer price index (CPI) or higher gross domestic product, improve immigrants' mental health. We use an econometrically-robust approach that exploits exogenous changes in macroeconomic conditions across immigrants' home countries over time and controls for immigrants' observable and unobservable characteristics. The CPI effect is statistically significant and sizeable. Furthermore, the CPI effect diminishes as the time since emigrating increases. By contrast, home countries' unemployment rates and exchange rate fluctuations have no impact on immigrants' mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Model developer`s appendix to the model documentation report: NEMS macroeconomic activity module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-07-15

    The NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) tested here was used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94). MAM is a response surface model, not a structural model, composed of three submodules: the National Submodule, the Interindustry Submodule, and the Regional Submodule. Contents of this report are as follows: properties of the mathematical solution; NEMS MAM empirical basis; and scenario analysis. Scenario analysis covers: expectations for scenario analysis; historical world oil price scenario; AEO94 high world oil price scenario; AEO94 low world oil price scenario; and immediate increase world oil price scenario.

  3. On the importance of macroeconomic factors for the foreign student’s decision to stay in the host country

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasiljeva, Kristine

    The paper tests empirically whether the macroeconomic variables suggested by migration theories have a significant impact on the foreign student’s decision to stay in their host country. The analysis is based on the combination of country level variables and individual register data. The mean lab...... in the home country is, the less likely male students are to stay. The employment outcome of student migrants has also been analysed and it is positively related to English language knowledge, but not to the abovementioned macroeconomic and culture related variables.......The paper tests empirically whether the macroeconomic variables suggested by migration theories have a significant impact on the foreign student’s decision to stay in their host country. The analysis is based on the combination of country level variables and individual register data. The mean...

  4. The relationship between macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators and workrelated injuries among Danish construction workers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kent Jacob; Lander, F.; Lauritsen, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The current study examines and compares the relationship between both macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators, and work-related injuries among construction workers in Denmark using emergency department (ED) injury data and also officially reported injuries...... to the Danish Working Environment Authority (WEA). Methods The correlations between ED and WEA injury data from the catchment area of Odense University Hospital during the period 1984–2010 were tested separately for variability and trend with two general macroeconomic indicators (gross domestic product...

  5. Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-09-01

    Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardona, Omar D; Ordaz, Mario G; Marulanda, Mabel C; Carreño, Martha L; Barbat, Alex H

    2010-10-01

    The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision-making in disaster risk reduction. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  7. Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Level of Dollarization in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnova Iryna V.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the article are identifying causal relationships between the macroeconomic determinants and the level of dollarization in Ukraine, as well as determining the activities for de-dollarization. The prerequisites, causes and consequences of dollarization have been covered. On the external grounds, dollarization is recognized as a manifestation of financial integration, on internal grounds, as a consequence of financial instability. The main types and forms of dollarization have been allocated. Forms of financial dollarization have been considered as: deposit, credit and monetary. The determinants that potentially impact the dollarization level have been allocated. According to the results of a correlation analysis, the thesis of direct strong connection between dollarization and currency deposits, i.e. the dominance of deposit dollarization, has been confirmed. In order to determine the causal nature of the interdependencies between variables and the level of dollarization, a Granger causality test was carried out, which confirmed the hypothesis of the significant influence of psychological attitudes and the distrust of economic agents towards the policies of government and monetary authorities. A set of macroeconomic, market and incentive de-dollarization activities have been proposed.

  8. Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaya Camara Seydou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses macroeconomic instabilities according to exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Based on International Monetary Fund's exchange rate regimes de facto classification, the global sample, SSA, is first divided into two subsamples, which are countries within CFA franc zone (ZCFA and those outside CFA franc zone (HZCFA, and then into four categories, which are the Western Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the countries CFA franc zone with fix exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FIX, and the countries outside CFA franc zone with flexible exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FLEX. By applying advanced statistical and econometric methods upon internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, we show that the inflation, the GDP (or the output and the real exchange rate (RER are very volatile in SSA. However, we found out that they are more volatile in the group HZCFA comparatively to the group ZCFA. We also found out that they are higher in the group HZCFA-FIX than the group HZCFA-FLEX. Moreover, we found out that a high instability of the inflation is combined with those of the output and the RER.

  9. The Effects of Domestic Macroeconomic Determinants on Stock Returns: A Sector Level Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investment analysis should be carefully performed in stock markets. Therefore, firms take necessary actions according to stock market behavior and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the predictability of stock market determinants becomes important. This study aims to identify the effects of selected macroeconomic factors (interest rate, exchange rates, inflation-consumer price index, current account deficit, unemployment rates and sector indices on stock returns of selected 48 companies in 11 different sectors of Istanbul Stock Exchange including electric, food, communication, paper, chemistry, metal-main, metal-product, stone, textile, commerce and transportation sectors. The study employs ARDL approach on the period between the second month of 2005 and the second month of 2012 including 85 monthly observations. According to the results, Sector Indices are found to be quite influential through the selected sectors. Exchanges rate is also significantly influential on almost all the sectors except Communication and Textile sectors. The impacts of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Current Account Deficit, and Unemployment Rate are various through the selected sectors. Moreover, the influence of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market on the stock returns of considered companies is significantly clear through the sectors except six companies (two companies from Paper sector, one company from Metal-Main sector, two companies from Stone sector and one company from Textile sector out of 48 companies. Since it includes a wide range of companies and sectors, this study is expected to be useful for all policy makers and investment decisions.

  10. Report of the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: a critique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerji, Debabar

    2002-01-01

    The World Health Organization has been able to interest some of the world's top economists in joining the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, to study macroeconomics of health services for the poor peoples of the world. The commission has been ahistorical, apolitical, and atheoretical. It has adopted a selective approach to conform to a preconceived ideology. It has ignored earlier work done in this field. And it has pointedly ignored such major developments in the health services as the Alma-Ata Declaration. These failings have brought the quality of the scholastic work to an almost rock-bottom level. The commission's tunnel vision in its recommendations on so important a subject is not surprising. Its emphatic recommendations for perpetuating vertical programs against major communicable diseases (tuberculosis, AIDS, and malaria) on the grounds that such programs have proved convenient to "donors" reveals the real motivations for an almost openly ideology-driven agenda. This is a serious danger signal for scholars who wish to take a scientific attitude toward program formulations for the poor that provide maximum returns from limited resources. The concept of DALYs (disability adjusted life years) is bristling with gross infirmities. The WHO-generated data used for DALY calculations, converted into dollar terms, are patently invalid, unreliable, and not comparable between and even within countries.

  11. Single European currency and Monetary Union. Macroeconomic implications for pharmaceutical spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanavos, P

    1998-01-01

    This article examines the potential implications of introducing a single currency among the Member States of the European Union for national pharmaceutical prices and spending. In doing so, it provides a brief account of the direct effects of introducing a single currency on pharmaceutical business. These are static in nature and include the elimination of exchange rate volatility and transaction costs, increased price transparency and limited potential for parallel trade. It subsequently analyses the potential medium and long term macroeconomic policy choices facing the Member States and their impact on pharmaceutical spending following the introduction of a single currency. These include policy directions in order to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria in the run-up to forming an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the implications of EMU on national macroeconomic policy thereafter. This article argues that the necessity for tight fiscal policies across the EU and, in particular, in those Member States facing high budget deficits and overall debt levels, will continue to exert considerable downward pressure on pharmaceutical spending.

  12. Il contributo dei "nuovi classici" alla macroeconomia.(The new-classical contribution to macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. LAIDLER

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available  L'autore sostiene che , anche se i modi particolari in cui New- classica Macroeconomia ha applicato le sue idee di base sono inutilmente restrittive , la sua enfasi sul comportamento di equilibrio condizionata dallo stato delle aspettative individuali degli agenti come base per la modellazione macro è comunque prezioso This work is devoted to assessing New-Classical ideas, and to asking what of lasting importance this school of macroeconomics has contributed since the early 1970s. It deals in turn with the relationship between New-Classical Economics and Monetarism, the relative explanatory power of these two bodies of doctrine over empirical evidence, and the claims of New-Classical Economics to embody a superior analytic method. The author argues that, although the particular ways in which New-Classical Macroeconomics has applied its basic ideas are unnecessarily restrictive, its stress on equilibrium behaviour conditioned by the state of individual agents’ expectations as a basis for macro modelling is nevertheless valuable. JEL: E13

  13. TEST OF THE CHEN-ROLL-ROSS MACROECONOMIC FACTOR MODEL: EVIDENCE FROM CROATIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Dolinar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the well-known Chen-Roll-Ross model on the Croatian stock market. Modifications of definitions of the Chen-Roll-Ross model variables showed as necessary because of doubtful availability and quality of input data needed. Namely, some macroeconomic and market variables are not available in the originally defined form or do not exist. In that sense this paper gives some alternative definitions for some model variables. Also, in order to improve statistical analysis, in this paper we have modified Fama-MacBeth technique in the way that second-pass regression was substituted with panel regression analysis. Based on the two-pass regression analysis of returns of 34 Croatian stocks on 4 macroeconomic variables during the seven-and-half-year observation period the following conclusion is made. In contrast to the results of Chen, Roll and Ross (1986 for the U.S. stock market, their model is not successful when describing a risk-return relation of Croatian stocks. Nevertheless, one observed version of the Chen-RollRoss model showed certain statistical significance. Namely, two risk factors in that version of the model were statistically significant: default premium, measured as risk premium for the corporate short-term bank loan financing, and term structure premium, measured on short-run basis.

  14. Macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, nonfood price inflation and overall inflation: A case of an emerging market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael T Mpofu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the association between certain macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, non-food price inflation and overall inflation in Zimbabwe, and also seeks to determine the level of association between these variables, given food security implications and overall well-being of its citizens. The study reveals that during the 2010 to 2016 period, Zimbabwe experienced stable food prices—annual food price inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged a relatively low growth rate of 0.12% monthly, while non-food inflation monthly growth rate was 0.09% and overall inflation growth rate was 0.11%. Although inflation from 2010 had been declining, of late, the increase in annual inflation has been underpinned by a rise in non-food inflation. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation remains lower than inflation rates in other countries in the region. Despite the increases lately in overall inflation, it remained below zero in January 2016, mostly driven by the depreciation of the South African rand and declining international oil prices. It should also be noted that domestic demand continued to decline in 2015, leading to the observed decline in both food and non-food prices. While food inflation has remained relatively low, it should be noted that non-food expenditures is significant component of the household budget and the rising prices result often lead to declining purchasing power and force households to make difficult choices in terms of their purchases. The findings of the study are food inflation has a low association with the independent variables under study; Zimbabwe broad money supply, rand-dollar exchange rates and the South Africa food inflation. There is, however, a very strong association between non-food inflation and these independent variables, as well as between overall inflation and the independent variables. Given the mostly rural population and the high level of unemployment in Zimbabwe, it can be surmised that

  15. Macroeconomic performance, political trust and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within-country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999-2011

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erkel, P.F.A.; van der Meer, T.W.G.

    2016-01-01

    Recent cross-national comparative studies have found no effect of countries’ macroeconomic performances on trust in national political institutions, once political explanations (most notably corruption) are taken into account. Although political trust is not determined by the comparison of national

  16. Do Specific Growth Drivers Exist for Firms? A Regional Analysis of Start-ups and Industrial Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL I. OJEAGA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The study of start-ups, have remained largely a micro economic issue. Firms are the key drivers of industrial sector GDP (or enterprise growth in countries across regions. Few studies have tried to examine the consequence of start-ups in the broad macroeconomics terms on enterprise growth in general with special emphasis on industrial sector output. This study provides a macroeconomic study of the effect of start- ups on industrial sector growth for countries in some specific geographical regions of the world. Panel data is utilized due to it obvious advantages such its ability to utilize a panel of short time frames and its suitability for controlling for omitted variable bias and unobservable heterogeneity across regions. The results show that start-ups remain an intrinsic variable for enterprise growth and industrial sector output discussion in general.

  17. Pro-Growth, Pro-Poor: Is There a Tradeoff?

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, J. Humberto

    2004-01-01

    Is a pro-growth strategy always the best pro-poor strategy? To address this issue, the author provides an empirical evaluation of the impact of a series of pro-growth policies on inequality and headcount poverty. He relies on a large macroeconomic data set and estimate dynamic panel models that allows him to differentiate between the short- and long-run impacts of the policies under consid...

  18. The impact of gender stereotypes on economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Boschini, Anne

    2003-01-01

    This paper argues that gender-specific educational choices have macroeconomic consequences in terms of economic growth. The presence of a social norm affecting persons choosing gender atypical educations at the university level generates a suboptimal allocation of ability, which lowers technological change and the stock of human capital, and thus hurts growth. The analysis of a cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1970 to 1998 lends empirical support for the importance of the educati...

  19. Deployment potential and macro-economic impacts of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the future energy system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelbl, B.S.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis investigates the deployment potential of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) under stringent climate policy targets and the possible macro-economic implications. First, we look at the use of CCS in scenarios of different Energy-Economy and Integrated Assessment Models. These scenarios look

  20. Econometric analysis on the impact of macroeconomic variables toward financial performance: A case of Malaysian public listed logistics companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakariah, Sahidah; Pyeman, Jaafar; Ghazali, Rahmat; Rahman, Ibrahim A.; Rashid, Ahmad Husni Mohd; Shamsuddin, Sofian

    2014-12-01

    The primary concern of this study is to analyse the impact against macroeconomic variables upon the financial performance, particularly in the case of public listed logistics companies in Malaysia. This study incorporated five macroeconomic variables and four proxies of financial performance. The macroeconomic variables selected are gross domestic product (GDP), total trade (XM), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and interest rate (INT). This study is extended to the usage of ratio analysis to predict financial performance in relation to the changes upon macroeconomic variables. As such, this study selected four (4) ratios as proxies to financial performance, which is Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE). The findings of this study may appear non-controversial to some, but it resulted in the following important consensus; (1) GDP is found to be highly impacting NPM and least of ROA, (2) XM has high positive impact on OPM and least on ROE, (3) FDI appear to have insignificant impact towards NPM, and (4) INF and INT show similar negative impact on financial performance, precisely highly negative on OPM and least on ROA. Such findings also conform to the local logistic industry settings, specifically in regards to public listed logistics companies in relation to its financial performance.

  1. Fiscal policy and the business cycle: the impact of government expenditures, public debt, and sovereign risk on macroeconomic fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kirchner, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis studies the role of fiscal policy over the business cycle based on a combination of empirical macroeconometric techniques and macroeconomic theory. The focus of the analysis to be conducted is on the impact of government expenditure policies, public debt, and sovereign default risk on

  2. Ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    The economic decline that began in 2008 opened a window of opportunity for consideration about how to combine macroecononomic and environmental concerns. This discussion is far from new, as evidenced, for instance, by the European Commission’s White Paper from 1993, which explained how a greening...... of the economy could go hand in hand with increased employment. These ideas were not reflected much in actual policies, and – despite some green elements – the subsequent economic upturn was driven first of all by consumption, and in several affluent countries, fueled by credit expansion. The current revival...... of this discussion includes contributions from actors involved with efforts to advance a ‘Green New Deal’ that repeats the idea that the promotion of green innovation and government funding of greener infrastructure would improve competitiveness and increase employment. This time ‘Green Keynesianism’ is accompanied...

  3. Financial sector and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia 1995-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novotny Damir

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial sector in the Republic of Croatia had a strong growth between 1995 2005.g. Liberalization of financial sector in 1999 led to an increase in bank foreign debt, which resulted in a strong increase in foreign currency reserves and appreciation of the national currency. The growth of the financial sector and credit expansion have been allocated in favour of private and public consumption, but not in industry investments. GDP growth didn't have the same momentum as financial aggregates. Economic growth, after a contraction in 1999 was within the average of global economic growth. Relying on neoclassical growth model, government and central bank didn't put in place the needed set of pro-active policies. Factor allocation was solely through private bank channels financing private consumption. If the sustainable economic growth and new employment are to be major macroeconomic goals, a new macroeconomic paradigm as combination of neclassical and neokeynesians approach will be needed.

  4. CORRELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savu Mihaela

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The mankind progress is built on economic growth.Yet, the high rates of economic growth must be properly used and correlated with other macroeconomic indicators in order to get the aimed effects.At the Romanian economic level, there is an inverse ratio connection between the gross domestic product and the unemployed number, a connection of low intensity.The correlation of these two indicators was established using parametric and nonparametric methods of analyzing the statistic connection using the informatic soft. Setting the recession function allows us to calculate the unemployed number depending on the forecasting of the economic growth in Romania.

  5. FEATURES OF INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC MEASURES OF TRANSFORMATION ON THE STATE DEBT POLICY

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    Roman Rudyk

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective is to study the relationship between the debt policy and vector of macroeconomic measures which is reflected in the transformation of structure of budget deficiency payments. Also, the article defines and characterizes three main phases of the government debt policy: pre-stabilization, stabilization and post-stabilization. The author analyzes main aspects of the relationship between dept policy and monetary one. Methodology. The study is based on the works of domestic and foreign scientists engaged in research of the given problem. Theoretical concepts are supported by statistical data of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine’s economy. Results of the survey showed that the relationship between the debt policy and measures of macro-regulation during the transformation has the stable and permanent nature, and the use of certain instruments of government debt management is exclusively possible for a definite direction of macro policy on the one hand, and they are the elements in the system of measures for its implementation on the other hand. In the pre-stabilization phase of transformation the debt policy synthesizes the expansive solutions of monetary and fiscal authorities, and a direct link between them mediate the expansion of demand in the public sector and the preservation of soft budget constraints for micro-units; in the stabilization phase the relationship between fiscal, monetary and debt policy becomes more indirect, but are direct in that part of the borrowing purposes, subordinated to the creation of macro-stabilization mechanism of transformation; in the poststabilization period the role of indirect interconnection between the debt measures and fiscal and monetary decisions increases, but the lack of a deep micro-restructuring and deep systemic and structural reforms cause the deterioration in the macro-economic state of the system, due to which the vector of government borrowing again gravitates toward the field

  6. Easing the pain of an economic downturn: macroeconomic conditions and excessive alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávalos, María E; Fang, Hai; French, Michael T

    2012-11-01

    Individuals can react to financial stress in a variety of ways, such as reducing discretionary spending or engaging in risky behaviors. This article investigates the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions (measured by the unemployment rate in the state of residence) on one type of risky behavior: excessive alcohol consumption. Using unique and recent panel data from waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and estimating fixed-effects models, we find that changes in the unemployment rate are positively related to changes in binge drinking, alcohol-involved driving, and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Some differences are present among demographic groups, primarily in the magnitude of the estimated effects. These results contradict previous studies and suggest that problematic drinking may be an indirect and unfortunate consequence of an economic downturn. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Modeling foreign exchange market activity around macroeconomic news: Hawkes-process approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rambaldi, Marcello; Pennesi, Paris; Lillo, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    We present a Hawkes-model approach to the foreign exchange market in which the high-frequency price dynamics is affected by a self-exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By focusing on time windows around the news announcement, we find that the model is able to capture the increase of trading activity after the news, both when the news has a sizable effect on volatility and when this effect is negligible, either because the news in not important or because the announcement is in line with the forecast by analysts. We extend the model by considering noncausal effects, due to the fact that the existence of the news (but not its content) is known by the market before the announcement.

  8. A macroeconomic approach to estimating effective tax rates in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HA Amusa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Using data contained in South Africa's national accounts and revenue statistics, this paper constructs time-series of effective tax rates for consumption, capital income, and labour income. The macroeconomic approach allows for a detailed breakdown of tax revenue accruing to general government and the corresponding aggregate tax bases. The methodology used also yields effective rate estimates that can be considered as being consistent with tax distortions faced by a representative economic agent within a general equilibrium framework. Correlation analysis reveals that savings (as a percentage of GDP is negatively correlated with both capital income and labour income tax rates. Investment (as a percentage of GDP is positively correlated with the capital income tax rate, an outcome suggestive of the direct relationship between volatile capital inflows into South Africa and capital tax revenue

  9. The effects of public debt management on macroeconomic equilibrium: An analysis of the Brazilian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleomar Gomes da Silva

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the effects of public debt management on yield curve spreads in Brazil, in order to see possible impacts on the country's economic activity. State space models, together with Kalman Filter estimators, are used for the period ranging from June 2002 to February 2012. The results indicate that increases in the issuance of fixed rate linked bonds lead to increases on yield spreads and the longer the maturity, the longer the effect. The opposite occurs when there is an increased issuance of floating rate linked bonds. Therefore, a change in the structure of the Brazilian public debt is not neutral on the yield curve, with possible impacts on the country's macroeconomic balance.

  10. EASING THE PAIN OF AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND EXCESSIVE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION

    Science.gov (United States)

    DÁVALOS, MARÍA E.; FANG, HAI; FRENCH, MICHAEL T.

    2012-01-01

    SUMMARY Individuals can react to financial stress in a variety of ways, such as reducing discretionary spending or engaging in risky behaviors. This paper investigates the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions (measured by the unemployment rate in the state of residence) on one type of risky behavior: excessive alcohol consumption. Using unique and recent panel data from Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and estimating fixed-effects models, we find that changes in the unemployment rate are positively related to changes in binge drinking, alcohol-involved driving, and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Some differences are present among demographic groups, primarily in the magnitude of the estimated effects. These results contradict previous studies and suggest that problematic drinking may be an indirect and unfortunate consequence of an economic downturn. PMID:21913282

  11. Impacts of Government Debt, the Exchange Rate and Other Macroeconomic Variables on Aggregate Output in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Hsing

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Applying aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis and based on a quarterly sample during 2000.Q4–2015.Q4, this paper finds that Croatia’s aggregate output is positively associated with government debt as percent of GDP during 2000.Q4–2008.Q4, real appreciation of the kuna, the real stock price, German real GDP, the real oil price and real wages and negatively influenced by government debt as percent of GDP during 2009.Q1–2015.Q4, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. The dynamic relationships between real GDP and government debt as percent of GDP suggest that fiscal discipline needs to be exercised in pursuing expansionary macroeconomic policy in the future.

  12. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE YIELD SPREAD OF INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT’S BOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Utama

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the roles of macroeconomic variables, which include interest rate (SBI, Consumer Price Index (IHK, Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG, money supply (JUB and exchange rate (KURS on yield spread of government bonds (YSI in Indonesia. The study employs Error Correction Model (ECM on Indonesian monthly data from January 2008 to December 2013. The study confirms that SBI and KURS significantly determine the YSI in the short run and the long run but money supply is significant only in the long run. However, YSI is not influenced by IHK and IHSG. Based on term structure of interest rate theory, the study finds that the expected future interest rate is determined by SBI, KURS, and JUB.

  13. Macroeconomic Indicators Used to Study the Efficiency of Investments in Renewable Energy Field

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    Corina FRĂSINEANU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the main indicators used to express the efficiency of renewable energy investments at macroeconomic level. Based on three econometric models, we present the calculation method of these indicators, along with interpretation. In the study are included countries with very high and high human development, member states of the European Union. Results indicate that all countries have a good economic efficiency of investments in renewable energy, but low social efficiency. As for the environmental efficiency of renewable investments, the findings reveal that only six European countries manage to direct their efforts to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions and in this way to have a high environmental efficiency of investments.

  14. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON BANKING STOCK PRICE INDEX IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laduna R.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock price index can be regarded as a barometer in the measuremet of a nation’s economic condition, besides it can also be used in conducting statistical analysis on the current market. Stock is the proof of one’s share in a company in the form of securities issued by the listed go-public companies. This study was conducted to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate on banking stock price index in Indonesia stock exchange or Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI. The results of study show that inflation and exchange rate posively influence the stock price index. The positive effect of the exchange rate shows that issuers who were positively affected by Rupiah (IDR depreciation appear to be the most dominant group. Meanwhile, the interest rate or Suku Bunga (SBI has a negative effect. Lower interest rate stimulates higher investments and better economic activities which increase the stock price.

  15. Non-Renewable Energy and Macroeconomic Efficiency of Seven Major Oil Producing Economies in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Awodumi Olabanji Benjamin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study adopted two-stage DEA to estimate the technical efficiency scores and assess the impact of the two most important components of fossil fuel associated with oil production on macroeconomic efficiency of Seven oil producing African countries during 2005-2012. Our results showed that increasing the consumption of natural gas would improve technical efficiency. Furthermore, increasing the share of fossil fuel in total energy consumption has negative effect on the efficiency of the economies of the top African oil producers. Also, we found that increasing the consumption of primary energy improves efficiency in these economies. We therefore, recommend that governments and other stakeholders in the energy industry should adopt inclusive strategies that will promote the use of natural gas in the short term. However, in the long-run, efforts should be geared towards increasing the use of primary energy, thereby reducing the percentage share of fossil fuel in total energy consumption.

  16. The Poisoned Chalice: Oil and Macroeconomics in Brazil (1967-2003)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biasetto, Bruno Henz

    This dissertation analyzes the development of the Brazilian oil industry and its impact on the economic development of Brazil from the beginning of the "Brazilian Miracle" (1968-1973) to the end of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso's second term as president (1995-2002). The dissertation explores the closely intertwined nature of Brazil's oil industry and its macroeconomic development, shedding new light on the history of Petrobras (the Brazilian state oil company), and on other key topics of Brazilian economic history, including the Debt Crisis of the 1980s and the role of neoliberalism in Brazil. The argument is that oil policy shaped the national economy and the Brazilian state in this period. Attention to the oil industry, and to Petrobras in particular, was crucial to the establishment of diplomatic and economic policy, and to conflict within the Brazilian state. Finally, this dissertation seeks to illuminate Brazil's place in the global oil industry and how that has shaped Brazil's global economic standing.

  17. The effect of macroeconomic variables on non performance financing of Islamic Banks in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latifah Dian Iriani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This research is going to discuss about the determinant macro variables and bank’s behavior determinant credit risk on Islamic rural bank in Indonesia. It could be seen on macro variables such as inflation, exchange rate, Jakarta I slamic index (JII and money supply (M2, and bank’s behavior such as financing. Research methodology used at this study is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Following these procedures, it applies Unit Roots Test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Lag Length Criteria Test, Correlation Matrix – Johansen Julius Co-integration Test, VECM Estimation, Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Test. The result show that both bank behaviors and macroeconomic variables are significant affecting non-performing financing (NPF. The banking need more careful to manage internal and external factors that influence non-performing financing (NPF.

  18. The conditionings of the credit market in agriculture. The macroeconomic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Kułyk

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we have evaluated the relationship of the credit market to the agricultural sector. The weakness of appropriate resource allocation from the credit market has been emphasized. We paid attention both to the external environment of agriculture itself, as well as to the way it has been shaped as a result of the process of globalization. The effect was examined of the influence of particular macroeconomic indicators adjusted according to the range of the interest rate as a result of change in the price of agricultural products. The period of the research covered the years 1990-2010. A discussion was carried out to allow for the setting apart of factors that influenced conditions which shaped the cost of financial loans and credit. The character of dependencies or related factors were analysed. The different significance of individual accounts was shown.

  19. DOES VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL PRICE PRECIPITATE MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effects of crude oil price changes on economic activity in an oil dependent economy-Nigeria. A small open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR technique is employed to study the macroeconomic dynamics of domestic price level, economic output, money supply and oil price in Nigeria. The sample covers the data from 1985:q1 to 2010:q4. The Impulse Response Functions (IRFs and the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs results suggest that domestic policies, instead of oil-boom should be blamed for inflation. Also, oil price variations are driven mostly by oil shocks, however, domestic shocks are responsible for a reasonable portion of oil price variations.

  20. On macroeconomic characteristics of pharmaceutical generics and the potential for manufacturing and consumption under fuzzy conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascón, Fernando; de la Fuente, David; Puente, Javier; Lozano, Jesús

    2007-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that is useful for analyzing, from a macroeconomic perspective, the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply features of the market of pharmaceutical generics. In order to determine the potential consumption and the potential production of pharmaceutical generics in different countries, two fuzzy decision support systems are proposed. Two fuzzy decision support systems, both based on the Mamdani model, were applied in this paper. These systems, generated by Matlab Toolbox 'Fuzzy' (v. 2.0), are able to determine the potential of a country for the manufacturing or the consumption of pharmaceutical generics. The systems make use of three macroeconomic input variables. In an empirical application of our proposed methodology, the potential towards consumption and manufacturing in Holland, Sweden, Italy and Spain has been estimated from national indicators. Cross-country comparisons are made and graphical surfaces are analyzed in order to interpret the results. The main contribution of this work is the development of a methodology that is useful for analyzing aggregate demand and aggregate supply characteristics of pharmaceutical generics. The methodology is valid for carrying out a systematic analysis of the potential generics have at a macrolevel in different countries. The main advantages of the use of fuzzy decision support systems in the context of pharmaceutical generics are the flexibility in the construction of the system, the speed in interpreting the results offered by the inference and surface maps and the ease with which a sensitivity analysis of the potential behavior of a given country may be performed.

  1. Socioeconomic position, macroeconomic environment and overweight among adolescents in 35 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due, P; Damsgaard, M T; Rasmussen, M; Holstein, B E; Wardle, J; Merlo, J; Currie, C; Ahluwalia, N; Sørensen, T I A; Lynch, J; Borraccino, A; Borup, I; Boyce, W; Elgar, F; Gabhainn, S N; Krølner, R; Svastisalee, C; Matos, M C; Nansel, T; Al Sabbah, H; Vereecken, C; Valimaa, R

    2009-10-01

    It is important to understand levels and social inequalities in childhood overweight within and between countries. This study examined prevalence and social inequality in adolescent overweight in 35 countries, and associations with macroeconomic factors. International cross-sectional survey in national samples of schools. A total of 11-, 13- and 15-year-olds from 35 countries in Europe and North America in 2001-2002 (N=162 305). The main outcome measure was overweight based on self-reported height and weight (body mass index cut-points corresponding to body mass index of 25 kg/m(2) at the age of 18 years). Measures included family and school affluence (within countries), and average country income and economic inequality (between countries). There were large variations in adolescent overweight, from 3.5% in Lithuanian girls to 31.7% in boys from Malta. Prevalence of overweight was higher among children from less affluent families in 21 of 24 Western and 5 of 10 Central European countries. However, children from more affluent families were at higher risk of overweight in Croatia, Estonia and Latvia. In Poland, Lithuania, Macedonia and Finland, girls from less affluent families were more overweight whereas the opposite was found for boys. Average country income was associated with prevalence and inequality in overweight when considering all countries together. However, economic inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient was differentially associated with prevalence and socioeconomic inequality in overweight among the 23-high income and 10-middle income countries, with a positive relationship among the high income countries and a negative association among the middle income countries. The direction and magnitude of social inequality in adolescent overweight shows large international variation, with negative social gradients in most countries, but positive social gradients, especially for boys, in some Central European countries. Macroeconomic factors are

  2. Organization and Finance of China's Health Sector: Historical Antecedents for Macroeconomic Structural Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Hilsenrath, Peter

    2016-01-01

    China has exploded onto the world economy over the past few decades and is undergoing rapid transformation toward relatively more services. The health sector is an important part of this transition. This article provides a historical account of the development of health care in China since 1949. It also focuses on health insurance and macroeconomic structural adjustment to less saving and more consumption. In particular, the question of how health insurance impacts precautionary savings is considered. Multivariate analysis using data from 1990 to 2012 is employed. The household savings rate is the dependent variable in 3 models segmented for rural and urban populations. Independent variables include out-of-pocket health expenditures, health insurance payouts, housing expenditure, education expenditure, and consumption as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). Out-of-pocket health expenditures were positively correlated with household savings rates. But health insurance remains weak, and increased payouts by health insurers have not been associated with lower levels of household savings so far. Housing was positively correlated, whereas education had a negative association with savings rates. This latter finding was unexpected. Perhaps education is perceived as investment and a substitute for savings. China's shift toward a more service-oriented economy includes growing dependence on the health sector. Better health insurance is an important part of this evolution. The organization and finance of health care is integrally linked with macroeconomic policy in an environment constrained by prevailing institutional convention. Problems of agency relationships, professional hegemony, and special interest politics feature prominently, as they do elsewhere. China also has a dual approach to medicine relying heavily on providers of traditional Chinese medicine. Both of these segments will take part in China's evolution, adding another layer of complexity to policy. © The

  3. Convergenze, divergenze e riallineamenti nella teorica macroeconomica inglese. (Convergence, divergence and realignment in British macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. COBHAM

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In questo lavoro l' autore sostiene che le distinzione ancora frequente e semplicistica tra keynesiani e monetaristi che costituisce gran parte del popolare dibattito economico britannico è diventata gravemente fuorviante . I cambiamenti che hanno avuto luogo in macroeconomia britannici fin dai primi anni 1970 sono quindi indicati e alcuni dei fattori teorici ed empirici responsabili di questi cambiamenti sono suggeriti. L'autore presenta una breve caratterizzazione del keynesismo britannico e monetarismo al 1970 fine del 1960 / inizio , sostenendo che ci sono stati importanti elementi di convergenza . Egli procede per discutere alcuni degli sviluppi teorici e alcune delle esperienze di politica macroeconomica del Regno Unito che hanno contribuito a questa convergenza . Infine , egli considera se le etichette " keynesiani " e " monetarista " continuano ad essere rilevanti .In this paper the author argues that the still frequent and simplistic distinction between Keynesians and monetarists that makes up a large part of the British popular economic debate has become seriously misleading. Changes that have taken place in British macroeconomics since the early 1970s are thus indicated and some of the theoretical and empirical factors responsible for these changes are suggested. The author presents a brief characterisation of British Keynesianism and monetarism as of late 1960s/early 1970s, arguing that there have been important elements of convergence. He proceeds to discuss some of the theoretical developments and some of the experiences of UK macroeconomic policy which have contributed to this convergence. Finally, he considers whether the labels “Keynesian” and “monetarist” continue to be relevant.JEL: E12, E13

  4. Re-establishing What Went Wrong Before: The Greenspan Put as Macroeconomic Modellers’ New Normal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Watson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Almost a decade after his retirement Alan Greenspan remains the world’s most immediately recognisable and highest profile central banker. This article reviews Greenspan’s ostensible move away from efficient markets theorising as he has tried to come to terms with the patterns of ‘euphoria’ and ‘fear’ he believes explain the build-up to the global financial crisis. In truth, though, it looks much more like an attempt to rescue the reputation of his free market models in the face of an increasing number of sceptics. Greenspan’s new memoire fails to acknowledge what, in effect, was the free put option the Federal Reserve provided to Wall Street traders under his leadership. Indeed, it goes as far as to promote a visualisation technique for how macroeconomic modellers should view the basic structure of the market environment which treats the now increasingly infamous ‘Greenspan put’ as an ostensibly formal component of asset prices. The style of policymaking that helped to stoke such extreme asset price inflation prior to the crisis is now embedded:(i within the class of models that Greenspan has presented as the post-crisis antidote to efficient markets theorising; and (ii within the recent historical data being used in the calibration tests of the models’ efficacy. What macroeconomic modellers can see in the market environment when embracing the supposedly new reality of euphoria and fear is a manifestation of what the prior existence of the Greenspan put first brought into view

  5. La teoria macroeconomica di vera Lutz. (The macroeconomic theory of Vera C. Lutz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. GRAZIANI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Vera Lutz è stata un economista con vasti interessi , tra cui la teoria del credito , la teoria dell'impresa , la teoria dello sviluppo economico e l'analisi del mercato del lavoro . Anche se ci sono molte buone ragioni per esaminare e discutere le sue idee in materia di equilibrio macroeconomico , tuttavia, c' è stato finora poco dibattito su questi aspetti del suo pensiero . In realtà, c'era solo un dibattito di breve durata nel 1962 , quando Ackley e Spaventa hanno scritto un articolo che criticava le sue idee sullo sviluppo del Mezzogiorno d'Italia. Il dibattito sul suo pensiero da allora è rimasto limitato alla sua teoria del dualismo strutturale . L'autore offre una rivalutazione del lavoro di Lutz ' , e in particolare il problema di equilibrio macroeconomico .Vera Lutz was an economist with wide-ranging interests, including credit theory, the theory of the firm, economic development theory and labour market analysis. Although there are several good reasons for examining and discussing her ideas in the field of macroeconomic equilibrium, however, there has thus far been little debate on these aspects of her thinking. In fact, there was only a short-lived debate in 1962, when Ackley and Spaventa wrote article criticising her ideas on the development of Southern Italy, dealing more with facts than theoretical framework. The debate on her thinking has since remained restricted to her theory of structural dualism. The author offers a reevaluation of Lutz’ work, and in particular the problem of macroeconomic equilibrium.JEL: B31

  6. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EQUALITY IN REDUCING POVERTY

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    Zaenal Muttaqin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In some developing countries, the instrument to alleviate the poverty is by using the economic growth. So, the increasing in investment, infrastructure development, and macroeconomics stability always be priority from developing countries. In this article explain that economic growth is not the important factor to alleviate the poverty, because equality sometimes is more important rather than the economic growth. In this context, its measure by inequality growth trade off index (IGTI. This method is to measure the influence of economic growth to reducing the inequality, with this method every country can measure which one is better to reducing the poverty whether the economic growth or equality. With this method, Laos in 2000 show that economic growth is more important than equality, but in the same year in Thailand show that equality is more important than economic growth.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v1i1.2592

  7. The Solow residual as a black box: attemps at integrating business cycle and growth theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mata, T.; Louçã, F.

    2009-01-01

    Robert Solow's "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function" (1957) has had an enduring influence on macroeconomics. In this article, we examine the history of fluctuations in growth theory through the story of the "Solow residual" as a "black box." We show that after Solow's seminal

  8. Localized innovation and productivity growth in Asia : an intertemporal DEA approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmer, Marcel P.; Los, Bart

    2002-01-01

    Recent contributions to growth theory stress the importance of localized innovation for the performance of more backward countries. In earlier papers, analyses by means of DEA techniques confirmed this intuition. In this paper, we extend this type of analysis by relaxing the macroeconomic viewpoint

  9. Localized innovation and productivity growth in Asia : An intertemporal DEA approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Los, B; Los, B

    Recent contributions to growth theory stress the importance of localized innovation for the performance of more backward countries. In earlier papers, analyses by means of DEA techniques confirmed this intuition. In this paper, we extend this type of analysis by relaxing the macroeconomic viewpoint

  10. Index of macroeconomic performance for a subset of countries: A Kaldorian analysis from the magic square approach focusing on Brazilian economy in the period 1997-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firme Vinícius de Azevedo Couto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to evaluate the macroeconomic performance of some chosen countries in the period 1997-2012 using the four variables that compose the “magic square” diagram suggested by Nicholas Kaldor (1971. In order to avoid problems with the variables’ scale, the standardized “Index of Economic Welfare” created by René A. Medrano-B and Joanílio R. Teixeira (2013 was utilized. The results showed a good performance of China and the Asian countries. Furthermore, in spite of the impact of the crises of 1998 and 2008 into Russia, this country presented a good recuperation and achieved a high index just after these crises. The Brazilian performance was somewhat surprising. The country showed a low growth rate and a progressive current account deficit, both typical of developed nations, along with a high inflation, typical of developing countries. A positive aspect seems to be the country’s capability of avoiding external crises, like the verified in 2008-2009.

  11. Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and problem drinking as captured by Google searches in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frijters, Paul; Johnston, David W; Lordan, Grace; Shields, Michael A

    2013-05-01

    There is considerable policy interest in the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health-related behaviours and outcomes. This paper sheds new light on this issue by exploring the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and an indicator of problem drinking derived from state-level data on alcoholism-related Google searches conducted in the US over the period 2004-2011. We find the current recessionary period coincided with an almost 20% increase in alcoholism-related searches. Controlling for state and time-effects, a 5% rise in unemployment is followed in the next 12 months by an approximate 15% increase in searches. The use of Internet searches to inform on health-related behaviours and outcomes is in its infancy; but we suggest that the data provides important real-time information for policy-makers and can help to overcome the under-reporting in surveys of sensitive information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. AN OVERVIEW AT MACROECONOMIC LEVEL THROUGH ACCOUNTING FIGURES PROVIDED BY THE ECB ASSESSMENT ON EUROZONE BANKING SYSTEM

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    Olivera Ecaterina OROS

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Along with the main macroeconomic indicators, the credit risk indicators became an important leverage in monitoring and evaluating the standard of living at a national level and the country’s economic evolution. These two types of indicators show a strong interconnection, and the correct assessment of the credit risk indicators becomes a must. As a consequence, the central banks and the main regulators in the Europe aria provided for a strict monitoring of such indicators and further on, for constant update of the banking supervisory regulations. In October 2013, the European Central bank (ECB issued the Note of Comprehensive Assessment that will be carried out during 2014, on the Euro-zone1 banking system. The outcome of the assessment will impact not only the accounting figures of the banking system, but also might change the macroeconomic overview of Euro-zone and the IASB's Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting.

  13. A macro-economic framework for evaluation of cyber security risks related to protection of intellectual property.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrijcic, Eva; Horowitz, Barry

    2006-08-01

    The article is based on the premise that, from a macro-economic viewpoint, cyber attacks with long-lasting effects are the most economically significant, and as a result require more attention than attacks with short-lasting effects that have historically been more represented in literature. In particular, the article deals with evaluation of cyber security risks related to one type of attack with long-lasting effects, namely, theft of intellectual property (IP) by foreign perpetrators. An International Consequence Analysis Framework is presented to determine (1) the potential macro-economic consequences of cyber attacks that result in stolen IP from companies in the United States, and (2) the likely sources of such attacks. The framework presented focuses on IP theft that enables foreign companies to make economic gains that would have otherwise benefited the U.S. economy. Initial results are presented.

  14. How Useful Is The Genuine Savings Rate As A Macroeconomic Sustainability Indicator For Countries And Regions? Australia And Queensland Compared

    OpenAIRE

    Assoc Prof Richard Brown; John Asafu-Adjaye; Draca, M; A. Straton

    2003-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how macroeconomic indicators of sustainable development can be applied to the Queensland economy. We derive a Genuine Savings Rate (GSR) for Queensland for the period 1989 to 1999, which is then compared with the World Bank estimate of Australia's GSR for the same period. Specifically, we examine how well a single "headline" indicator based on the World Bank's GSR performs as a measure of overall sustainability. In doing so, we review criticisms of the GSR and compare ...

  15. Complexity and Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Kind of Fractional-Order IS-LM Macroeconomic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo

    On the basis of our previous research, we deepen and complete a kind of macroeconomics IS-LM model with fractional-order calculus theory, which is a good reflection on the memory characteristics of economic variables, we also focus on the influence of the variables on the real system, and improve the analysis capabilities of the traditional economic models to suit the actual macroeconomic environment. The conditions of Hopf bifurcation in fractional-order system models are briefly demonstrated, and the fractional order when Hopf bifurcation occurs is calculated, showing the inherent complex dynamic characteristics of the system. With numerical simulation, bifurcation, strange attractor, limit cycle, waveform and other complex dynamic characteristics are given; and the order condition is obtained with respect to time. We find that the system order has an important influence on the running state of the system. The system has a periodic motion when the order meets the conditions of Hopf bifurcation; the fractional-order system gradually stabilizes with the change of the order and parameters while the corresponding integer-order system diverges. This study has certain significance to policy-making about macroeconomic regulation and control.

  16. Parametric Meta-Technology Frameworks to Study Technical Efficiency and Macro-Economic Effects in the European Banking System

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    Bilel Jarraya

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Bank efficiency scores usually serve as a tool for comparing institutions with each other while allowing us to quantify sub-optimal decision-making unit choices. In the case of inter-country comparisons, such differences can also arise because of macro-economic heterogeneity between countries. Previous studies estimated a common technology limit for a sample of banking institutions in different countries. The contribution of our paper is that we employ a parametric approach to specify meta-frontiers and to study the effect of macro-economic heterogeneity on banking technology development. First, we use a parametric directional distance function to specify the appropriate technology frontier for each nation and the meta-technology frontier that includes all country-specific frontiers. Then, we define the directional technology gap ratio referring to the inefficiency scores evaluated from meta-technology and country-specific technology frontiers. The estimated parameters are more significant in our model than in the general model, also called the common frontier model. Comparing the results of our model to those of common frontiers, we find a substantial variation not only in inefficiency scores but also in countries’ rankings. While resorting to a pooled linear regression model, we demonstrate that the assessed technology gap ratio exhibits a significant association with inflation rates and per capita GDP. This result proves the influence of macro-economic heterogeneity on banks’ efficiency and technological development.

  17. The global impact of non-communicable diseases on macro-economic productivity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaker, Layal; Falla, Abby; van der Lee, Sven J; Muka, Taulant; Imo, David; Jaspers, Loes; Colpani, Veronica; Mendis, Shanthi; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Bramer, Wichor M; Pazoki, Raha; Franco, Oscar H

    2015-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have large economic impact at multiple levels. To systematically review the literature investigating the economic impact of NCDs [including coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), cancer (lung, colon, cervical and breast), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD)] on macro-economic productivity. Systematic search, up to November 6th 2014, of medical databases (Medline, Embase and Google Scholar) without language restrictions. To identify additional publications, we searched the reference lists of retrieved studies and contacted authors in the field. Randomized controlled trials, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, ecological studies and modelling studies carried out in adults (>18 years old) were included. Two independent reviewers performed all abstract and full text selection. Disagreements were resolved through consensus or consulting a third reviewer. Two independent reviewers extracted data using a predesigned data collection form. Main outcome measure was the impact of the selected NCDs on productivity, measured in DALYs, productivity costs, and labor market participation, including unemployment, return to work and sick leave. From 4542 references, 126 studies met the inclusion criteria, many of which focused on the impact of more than one NCD on productivity. Breast cancer was the most common (n = 45), followed by stroke (n = 31), COPD (n = 24), colon cancer (n = 24), DM (n = 22), lung cancer (n = 16), CVD (n = 15), cervical cancer (n = 7) and CKD (n = 2). Four studies were from the WHO African Region, 52 from the European Region, 53 from the Region of the Americas and 16 from the Western Pacific Region, one from the Eastern Mediterranean Region and none from South East Asia. We found large regional differences in DALYs attributable to NCDs but especially for cervical and lung cancer. Productivity losses in the USA ranged from 88 million

  18. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND ROMANIAN CORPORATE DEFAULT RATES BETWEEN 2002-2008

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    Suveg Orsolya

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available During its 20 year history of market economy, Romania experienced the most severe downturn in 2009, which resulted in many cost, mainly because of the output loss. These conditions forced several firms to declare bankruptcy and to stop their activity. The aim of this research is to assess the relationship between the corporate default rates and the macroeconomic processes in the case of Romania for the period comprised between 2002Q1-2008Q4. For this, based on the relevant literature, we ranked the potential explanatory variables of the default rates into seven groups: cyclical indicators, household indicators, corporate indicators, external sector indicators, price stability indicators and interest rates, loans to private sector and finally the capital market indicators. Some studies base their results only on accounting data, others only on market data. Our study focuses on both, since this seems to be an adequate approach in capturing most of the processes. Similar to the banks loan portfolio structure, we conducted analysis for five sectors: industry, construction, agriculture, services and the overall economy. For each sector the average default probability at time t is modeled as a logistic function of many general and sector-specific macroeconomic variables. The use of logistic regression was motivated by its ability to account for fractional data between 0 and 1. We found that at least one variable from each group has a significant explanatory power regarding the evolution of the default rates in all five sectors analyzed. In some cases the sign of the variables was the opposite of what the economic theory would have suggested, but it has to be taken into account that Romania posted the picture of an overheated economy during the analyzed period. Another important conclusion was that many variables were significant through their lagged value, which indicates an even better supervision of the evolution of the specific variables. From all

  19. SELECTED MACROECONOMIC FACTORS OBSERVATION IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE OBSERVATION PERIOD 2000-2012, SHOWING RESULTS FROM 2008 TO 2012.

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    BOGDAN LABAN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The application of the neoliberal concept in the Western Balkans has had effects on the economies of those countries that can say das resulted in unsustainable economic growth and macroeconomic instability. Besides the application of the same given the developments that had features of weakness especially since 2008., from the onset of the global economic crisis. The consequences of the liberalization of international economic developments have enabled the countries of the Western Balkans obtain foreign investment in the form of foreign direct investment, but their economies have done even more dependent on foreign capital, which is increasingly going in economic activities that have a faster way could fertilize the invested capital.

  20. The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

    2010-11-01

    Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.