Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

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Kai, Joe; Garibaldi, Jonathan M.; Qureshi, Nadeem

2017-01-01

Background Current approaches to predict cardiovascular risk fail to identify many people who would benefit from preventive treatment, while others receive unnecessary intervention. Machine-learning offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploiting complex interactions between risk factors. We assessed whether machine-learning can improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods Prospective cohort study using routine clinical data of 378,256 patients from UK family practices, free from cardiovascular disease at outset. Four machine-learning algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, gradient boosting machines, neural networks) were compared to an established algorithm (American College of Cardiology guidelines) to predict first cardiovascular event over 10-years. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the ‘receiver operating curve’ (AUC); and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) to predict 7.5% cardiovascular risk (threshold for initiating statins). Findings 24,970 incident cardiovascular events (6.6%) occurred. Compared to the established risk prediction algorithm (AUC 0.728, 95% CI 0.723–0.735), machine-learning algorithms improved prediction: random forest +1.7% (AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.739–0.750), logistic regression +3.2% (AUC 0.760, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), gradient boosting +3.3% (AUC 0.761, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), neural networks +3.6% (AUC 0.764, 95% CI 0.759–0.769). The highest achieving (neural networks) algorithm predicted 4,998/7,404 cases (sensitivity 67.5%, PPV 18.4%) and 53,458/75,585 non-cases (specificity 70.7%, NPV 95.7%), correctly predicting 355 (+7.6%) more patients who developed cardiovascular disease compared to the established algorithm. Conclusions Machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

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Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

2016-01-01

Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

Predicting the dissolution kinetics of silicate glasses using machine learning

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Anoop Krishnan, N. M.; Mangalathu, Sujith; Smedskjaer, Morten M.; Tandia, Adama; Burton, Henry; Bauchy, Mathieu

2018-05-01

Predicting the dissolution rates of silicate glasses in aqueous conditions is a complex task as the underlying mechanism(s) remain poorly understood and the dissolution kinetics can depend on a large number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Here, we assess the potential of data-driven models based on machine learning to predict the dissolution rates of various aluminosilicate glasses exposed to a wide range of solution pH values, from acidic to caustic conditions. Four classes of machine learning methods are investigated, namely, linear regression, support vector machine regression, random forest, and artificial neural network. We observe that, although linear methods all fail to describe the dissolution kinetics, the artificial neural network approach offers excellent predictions, thanks to its inherent ability to handle non-linear data. Overall, we suggest that a more extensive use of machine learning approaches could significantly accelerate the design of novel glasses with tailored properties.

Predicting breast screening attendance using machine learning techniques.

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Baskaran, Vikraman; Guergachi, Aziz; Bali, Rajeev K; Naguib, Raouf N G

2011-03-01

Machine learning-based prediction has been effectively applied for many healthcare applications. Predicting breast screening attendance using machine learning (prior to the actual mammogram) is a new field. This paper presents new predictor attributes for such an algorithm. It describes a new hybrid algorithm that relies on back-propagation and radial basis function-based neural networks for prediction. The algorithm has been developed in an open source-based environment. The algorithm was tested on a 13-year dataset (1995-2008). This paper compares the algorithm and validates its accuracy and efficiency with different platforms. Nearly 80% accuracy and 88% positive predictive value and sensitivity were recorded for the algorithm. The results were encouraging; 40-50% of negative predictive value and specificity warrant further work. Preliminary results were promising and provided ample amount of reasons for testing the algorithm on a larger scale.

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saerom Park

Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

Spatial extreme learning machines: An application on prediction of disease counts.

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Prates, Marcos O

2018-01-01

Extreme learning machines have gained a lot of attention by the machine learning community because of its interesting properties and computational advantages. With the increase in collection of information nowadays, many sources of data have missing information making statistical analysis harder or unfeasible. In this paper, we present a new model, coined spatial extreme learning machine, that combine spatial modeling with extreme learning machines keeping the nice properties of both methodologies and making it very flexible and robust. As explained throughout the text, the spatial extreme learning machines have many advantages in comparison with the traditional extreme learning machines. By a simulation study and a real data analysis we present how the spatial extreme learning machine can be used to improve imputation of missing data and uncertainty prediction estimation.

The use of machine learning and nonlinear statistical tools for ADME prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakiyama, Yojiro

2009-02-01

Absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME)-related failure of drug candidates is a major issue for the pharmaceutical industry today. Prediction of ADME by in silico tools has now become an inevitable paradigm to reduce cost and enhance efficiency in pharmaceutical research. Recently, machine learning as well as nonlinear statistical tools has been widely applied to predict routine ADME end points. To achieve accurate and reliable predictions, it would be a prerequisite to understand the concepts, mechanisms and limitations of these tools. Here, we have devised a small synthetic nonlinear data set to help understand the mechanism of machine learning by 2D-visualisation. We applied six new machine learning methods to four different data sets. The methods include Naive Bayes classifier, classification and regression tree, random forest, Gaussian process, support vector machine and k nearest neighbour. The results demonstrated that ensemble learning and kernel machine displayed greater accuracy of prediction than classical methods irrespective of the data set size. The importance of interaction with the engineering field is also addressed. The results described here provide insights into the mechanism of machine learning, which will enable appropriate usage in the future.

Machine learning derived risk prediction of anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Keating, Brendan J; Hakonarson, Hakon

2016-01-20

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex psychiatric disease with a moderate to strong genetic contribution. In addition to conventional genome wide association (GWA) studies, researchers have been using machine learning methods in conjunction with genomic data to predict risk of diseases in which genetics play an important role. In this study, we collected whole genome genotyping data on 3940 AN cases and 9266 controls from the Genetic Consortium for Anorexia Nervosa (GCAN), the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3), Price Foundation Collaborative Group and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), and applied machine learning methods for predicting AN disease risk. The prediction performance is measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), indicating how well the model distinguishes cases from unaffected control subjects. Logistic regression model with the lasso penalty technique generated an AUC of 0.693, while Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Trees reached AUC's of 0.691 and 0.623, respectively. Using different sample sizes, our results suggest that larger datasets are required to optimize the machine learning models and achieve higher AUC values. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess AN risk based on genome wide genotype level data. Future integration of genomic, environmental and family-based information is likely to improve the AN risk evaluation process, eventually benefitting AN patients and families in the clinical setting.

Machine learning-based methods for prediction of linear B-cell epitopes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hsin-Wei; Pai, Tun-Wen

2014-01-01

B-cell epitope prediction facilitates immunologists in designing peptide-based vaccine, diagnostic test, disease prevention, treatment, and antibody production. In comparison with T-cell epitope prediction, the performance of variable length B-cell epitope prediction is still yet to be satisfied. Fortunately, due to increasingly available verified epitope databases, bioinformaticians could adopt machine learning-based algorithms on all curated data to design an improved prediction tool for biomedical researchers. Here, we have reviewed related epitope prediction papers, especially those for linear B-cell epitope prediction. It should be noticed that a combination of selected propensity scales and statistics of epitope residues with machine learning-based tools formulated a general way for constructing linear B-cell epitope prediction systems. It is also observed from most of the comparison results that the kernel method of support vector machine (SVM) classifier outperformed other machine learning-based approaches. Hence, in this chapter, except reviewing recently published papers, we have introduced the fundamentals of B-cell epitope and SVM techniques. In addition, an example of linear B-cell prediction system based on physicochemical features and amino acid combinations is illustrated in details.

Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

2015-08-01

Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

WORMHOLE: Novel Least Diverged Ortholog Prediction through Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Sutphin, George L.; Mahoney, J. Matthew; Sheppard, Keith; Walton, David O.; Korstanje, Ron

2016-01-01

The rapid advancement of technology in genomics and targeted genetic manipulation has made comparative biology an increasingly prominent strategy to model human disease processes. Predicting orthology relationships between species is a vital component of comparative biology. Dozens of strategies for predicting orthologs have been developed using combinations of gene and protein sequence, phylogenetic history, and functional interaction with progressively increasing accuracy. A relatively new class of orthology prediction strategies combines aspects of multiple methods into meta-tools, resulting in improved prediction performance. Here we present WORMHOLE, a novel ortholog prediction meta-tool that applies machine learning to integrate 17 distinct ortholog prediction algorithms to identify novel least diverged orthologs (LDOs) between 6 eukaryotic species—humans, mice, zebrafish, fruit flies, nematodes, and budding yeast. Machine learning allows WORMHOLE to intelligently incorporate predictions from a wide-spectrum of strategies in order to form aggregate predictions of LDOs with high confidence. In this study we demonstrate the performance of WORMHOLE across each combination of query and target species. We show that WORMHOLE is particularly adept at improving LDO prediction performance between distantly related species, expanding the pool of LDOs while maintaining low evolutionary distance and a high level of functional relatedness between genes in LDO pairs. We present extensive validation, including cross-validated prediction of PANTHER LDOs and evaluation of evolutionary divergence and functional similarity, and discuss future applications of machine learning in ortholog prediction. A WORMHOLE web tool has been developed and is available at http://wormhole.jax.org/. PMID:27812085

WORMHOLE: Novel Least Diverged Ortholog Prediction through Machine Learning.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George L Sutphin

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The rapid advancement of technology in genomics and targeted genetic manipulation has made comparative biology an increasingly prominent strategy to model human disease processes. Predicting orthology relationships between species is a vital component of comparative biology. Dozens of strategies for predicting orthologs have been developed using combinations of gene and protein sequence, phylogenetic history, and functional interaction with progressively increasing accuracy. A relatively new class of orthology prediction strategies combines aspects of multiple methods into meta-tools, resulting in improved prediction performance. Here we present WORMHOLE, a novel ortholog prediction meta-tool that applies machine learning to integrate 17 distinct ortholog prediction algorithms to identify novel least diverged orthologs (LDOs between 6 eukaryotic species-humans, mice, zebrafish, fruit flies, nematodes, and budding yeast. Machine learning allows WORMHOLE to intelligently incorporate predictions from a wide-spectrum of strategies in order to form aggregate predictions of LDOs with high confidence. In this study we demonstrate the performance of WORMHOLE across each combination of query and target species. We show that WORMHOLE is particularly adept at improving LDO prediction performance between distantly related species, expanding the pool of LDOs while maintaining low evolutionary distance and a high level of functional relatedness between genes in LDO pairs. We present extensive validation, including cross-validated prediction of PANTHER LDOs and evaluation of evolutionary divergence and functional similarity, and discuss future applications of machine learning in ortholog prediction. A WORMHOLE web tool has been developed and is available at http://wormhole.jax.org/.

Prediction of drug synergy in cancer using ensemble-based machine learning techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Harpreet; Rana, Prashant Singh; Singh, Urvinder

2018-04-01

Drug synergy prediction plays a significant role in the medical field for inhibiting specific cancer agents. It can be developed as a pre-processing tool for therapeutic successes. Examination of different drug-drug interaction can be done by drug synergy score. It needs efficient regression-based machine learning approaches to minimize the prediction errors. Numerous machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, LASSO, Elastic Nets, etc., have been used in the past to realize requirement as mentioned above. However, these techniques individually do not provide significant accuracy in drug synergy score. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to design a neuro-fuzzy-based ensembling approach. To achieve this, nine well-known machine learning techniques have been implemented by considering the drug synergy data. Based on the accuracy of each model, four techniques with high accuracy are selected to develop ensemble-based machine learning model. These models are Random forest, Fuzzy Rules Using Genetic Cooperative-Competitive Learning method (GFS.GCCL), Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System method (DENFIS). Ensembling is achieved by evaluating the biased weighted aggregation (i.e. adding more weights to the model with a higher prediction score) of predicted data by selected models. The proposed and existing machine learning techniques have been evaluated on drug synergy score data. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed method outperforms others in terms of accuracy, root mean square error and coefficient of correlation.

Novel Breast Imaging and Machine Learning: Predicting Breast Lesion Malignancy at Cone-Beam CT Using Machine Learning Techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Uhlig, Johannes; Uhlig, Annemarie; Kunze, Meike; Beissbarth, Tim; Fischer, Uwe; Lotz, Joachim; Wienbeck, Susanne

2018-05-24

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of machine learning techniques for malignancy prediction at breast cone-beam CT (CBCT) and to compare them to human readers. Five machine learning techniques, including random forests, back propagation neural networks (BPN), extreme learning machines, support vector machines, and K-nearest neighbors, were used to train diagnostic models on a clinical breast CBCT dataset with internal validation by repeated 10-fold cross-validation. Two independent blinded human readers with profound experience in breast imaging and breast CBCT analyzed the same CBCT dataset. Diagnostic performance was compared using AUC, sensitivity, and specificity. The clinical dataset comprised 35 patients (American College of Radiology density type C and D breasts) with 81 suspicious breast lesions examined with contrast-enhanced breast CBCT. Forty-five lesions were histopathologically proven to be malignant. Among the machine learning techniques, BPNs provided the best diagnostic performance, with AUC of 0.91, sensitivity of 0.85, and specificity of 0.82. The diagnostic performance of the human readers was AUC of 0.84, sensitivity of 0.89, and specificity of 0.72 for reader 1 and AUC of 0.72, sensitivity of 0.71, and specificity of 0.67 for reader 2. AUC was significantly higher for BPN when compared with both reader 1 (p = 0.01) and reader 2 (p Machine learning techniques provide a high and robust diagnostic performance in the prediction of malignancy in breast lesions identified at CBCT. BPNs showed the best diagnostic performance, surpassing human readers in terms of AUC and specificity.

An ensemble machine learning approach to predict survival in breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Djebbari, Amira; Liu, Ziying; Phan, Sieu; Famili, Fazel

2008-01-01

Current breast cancer predictive signatures are not unique. Can we use this fact to our advantage to improve prediction? From the machine learning perspective, it is well known that combining multiple classifiers can improve classification performance. We propose an ensemble machine learning approach which consists of choosing feature subsets and learning predictive models from them. We then combine models based on certain model fusion criteria and we also introduce a tuning parameter to control sensitivity. Our method significantly improves classification performance with a particular emphasis on sensitivity which is critical to avoid misclassifying poor prognosis patients as good prognosis.

Machine Learning Methods to Predict Diabetes Complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Dagliati, Arianna; Marini, Simone; Sacchi, Lucia; Cogni, Giulia; Teliti, Marsida; Tibollo, Valentina; De Cata, Pasquale; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2018-03-01

One of the areas where Artificial Intelligence is having more impact is machine learning, which develops algorithms able to learn patterns and decision rules from data. Machine learning algorithms have been embedded into data mining pipelines, which can combine them with classical statistical strategies, to extract knowledge from data. Within the EU-funded MOSAIC project, a data mining pipeline has been used to derive a set of predictive models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) complications based on electronic health record data of nearly one thousand patients. Such pipeline comprises clinical center profiling, predictive model targeting, predictive model construction and model validation. After having dealt with missing data by means of random forest (RF) and having applied suitable strategies to handle class imbalance, we have used Logistic Regression with stepwise feature selection to predict the onset of retinopathy, neuropathy, or nephropathy, at different time scenarios, at 3, 5, and 7 years from the first visit at the Hospital Center for Diabetes (not from the diagnosis). Considered variables are gender, age, time from diagnosis, body mass index (BMI), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), hypertension, and smoking habit. Final models, tailored in accordance with the complications, provided an accuracy up to 0.838. Different variables were selected for each complication and time scenario, leading to specialized models easy to translate to the clinical practice.

A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of monitor units for a compact proton machine.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Baozhou; Lam, Dao; Yang, Deshan; Grantham, Kevin; Zhang, Tiezhi; Mutic, Sasa; Zhao, Tianyu

2018-05-01

Clinical treatment planning systems for proton therapy currently do not calculate monitor units (MUs) in passive scatter proton therapy due to the complexity of the beam delivery systems. Physical phantom measurements are commonly employed to determine the field-specific output factors (OFs) but are often subject to limited machine time, measurement uncertainties and intensive labor. In this study, a machine learning-based approach was developed to predict output (cGy/MU) and derive MUs, incorporating the dependencies on gantry angle and field size for a single-room proton therapy system. The goal of this study was to develop a secondary check tool for OF measurements and eventually eliminate patient-specific OF measurements. The OFs of 1754 fields previously measured in a water phantom with calibrated ionization chambers and electrometers for patient-specific fields with various range and modulation width combinations for 23 options were included in this study. The training data sets for machine learning models in three different methods (Random Forest, XGBoost and Cubist) included 1431 (~81%) OFs. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to prevent "overfitting" and to validate each model. The remaining 323 (~19%) OFs were used to test the trained models. The difference between the measured and predicted values from machine learning models was analyzed. Model prediction accuracy was also compared with that of the semi-empirical model developed by Kooy (Phys. Med. Biol. 50, 2005). Additionally, gantry angle dependence of OFs was measured for three groups of options categorized on the selection of the second scatters. Field size dependence of OFs was investigated for the measurements with and without patient-specific apertures. All three machine learning methods showed higher accuracy than the semi-empirical model which shows considerably large discrepancy of up to 7.7% for the treatment fields with full range and full modulation width. The Cubist-based solution

Exploration of Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Pavement Performance

Science.gov (United States)

2018-03-23

Machine learning (ML) techniques were used to model and predict pavement condition index (PCI) for various pavement types using a variety of input variables. The primary objective of this research was to develop and assess PCI predictive models for t...

Machine learning approach for the outcome prediction of temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rubén Armañanzas

Full Text Available Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery.

Predicting the concentration of residual methanol in industrial formalin using machine learning

OpenAIRE

Heidkamp, William

2016-01-01

In this thesis, a machine learning approach was used to develop a predictive model for residual methanol concentration in industrial formalin produced at the Akzo Nobel factory in Kristinehamn, Sweden. The MATLABTM computational environment supplemented with the Statistics and Machine LearningTM toolbox from the MathWorks were used to test various machine learning algorithms on the formalin production data from Akzo Nobel. As a result, the Gaussian Process Regression algorithm was found to pr...

CAT-PUMA: CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-04-01

CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) quickly and accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) of CME arrival time. The software was trained via detailed analysis of CME features and solar wind parameters using 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and uses algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to make its predictions, which can be made within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME.

Building Customer Churn Prediction Models in Fitness Industry with Machine Learning Methods

OpenAIRE

Shan, Min

2017-01-01

With the rapid growth of digital systems, churn management has become a major focus within customer relationship management in many industries. Ample research has been conducted for churn prediction in different industries with various machine learning methods. This thesis aims to combine feature selection and supervised machine learning methods for defining models of churn prediction and apply them on fitness industry. Forward selection is chosen as feature selection methods. Support Vector ...

Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guanjin; Lam, Kin-Man; Deng, Zhaohong; Choi, Kup-Sze

2015-08-01

Bladder cancer is a common cancer in genitourinary malignancy. For muscle invasive bladder cancer, surgical removal of the bladder, i.e. radical cystectomy, is in general the definitive treatment which, unfortunately, carries significant morbidities and mortalities. Accurate prediction of the mortality of radical cystectomy is therefore needed. Statistical methods have conventionally been used for this purpose, despite the complex interactions of high-dimensional medical data. Machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for handling high-dimensional data, with increasing application in clinical decision support, e.g. cancer prediction and prognosis. Its ability to reveal the hidden nonlinear interactions and interpretable rules between dependent and independent variables is favorable for constructing models of effective generalization performance. In this paper, seven machine learning methods are utilized to predict the 5-year mortality of radical cystectomy, including back-propagation neural network (BPN), radial basis function (RBFN), extreme learning machine (ELM), regularized ELM (RELM), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB) classifier and k-nearest neighbour (KNN), on a clinicopathological dataset of 117 patients of the urology unit of a hospital in Hong Kong. The experimental results indicate that RELM achieved the highest average prediction accuracy of 0.8 at a fast learning speed. The research findings demonstrate the potential of applying machine learning techniques to support clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Prediction of Low-Visibility Events at Airports Using Machine-Learning Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Cornejo-Bueno, L.; Casanova-Mateo, C.; Sanz-Justo, J.; Cerro-Prada, E.; Salcedo-Sanz, S.

2017-11-01

We address the prediction of low-visibility events at airports using machine-learning regression. The proposed model successfully forecasts low-visibility events in terms of the runway visual range at the airport, with the use of support-vector regression, neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme-learning machines) and Gaussian-process algorithms. We assess the performance of these algorithms based on real data collected at the Valladolid airport, Spain. We also propose a study of the atmospheric variables measured at a nearby tower related to low-visibility atmospheric conditions, since they are considered as the inputs of the different regressors. A pre-processing procedure of these input variables with wavelet transforms is also described. The results show that the proposed machine-learning algorithms are able to predict low-visibility events well. The Gaussian process is the best algorithm among those analyzed, obtaining over 98% of the correct classification rate in low-visibility events when the runway visual range is {>}1000 m, and about 80% under this threshold. The performance of all the machine-learning algorithms tested is clearly affected in extreme low-visibility conditions ({algorithm performance in daytime and nighttime conditions, and for different prediction time horizons.

Machine learning for outcome prediction of acute ischemic stroke post intra-arterial therapy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamed Asadi

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Stroke is a major cause of death and disability. Accurately predicting stroke outcome from a set of predictive variables may identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches, leading to decreased morbidity. Logistic regression models allow for the identification and validation of predictive variables. However, advanced machine learning algorithms offer an alternative, in particular, for large-scale multi-institutional data, with the advantage of easily incorporating newly available data to improve prediction performance. Our aim was to design and compare different machine learning methods, capable of predicting the outcome of endovascular intervention in acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective study of a prospectively collected database of acute ischaemic stroke treated by endovascular intervention. Using SPSS®, MATLAB®, and Rapidminer®, classical statistics as well as artificial neural network and support vector algorithms were applied to design a supervised machine capable of classifying these predictors into potential good and poor outcomes. These algorithms were trained, validated and tested using randomly divided data. RESULTS: We included 107 consecutive acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke patients treated by endovascular technique. Sixty-six were male and the mean age of 65.3. All the available demographic, procedural and clinical factors were included into the models. The final confusion matrix of the neural network, demonstrated an overall congruency of ∼ 80% between the target and output classes, with favourable receiving operative characteristics. However, after optimisation, the support vector machine had a relatively better performance, with a root mean squared error of 2.064 (SD: ± 0.408. DISCUSSION: We showed promising accuracy of outcome prediction, using supervised machine learning algorithms, with potential for incorporation of larger multicenter

Machine Learning

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2017-01-01

Machine learning, which builds on ideas in computer science, statistics, and optimization, focuses on developing algorithms to identify patterns and regularities in data, and using these learned patterns to make predictions on new observations. Boosted by its industrial and commercial applications, the field of machine learning is quickly evolving and expanding. Recent advances have seen great success in the realms of computer vision, natural language processing, and broadly in data science. Many of these techniques have already been applied in particle physics, for instance for particle identification, detector monitoring, and the optimization of computer resources. Modern machine learning approaches, such as deep learning, are only just beginning to be applied to the analysis of High Energy Physics data to approach more and more complex problems. These classes will review the framework behind machine learning and discuss recent developments in the field.

Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform Conventional Regression Models in Predicting Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Science.gov (United States)

Singal, Amit G.; Mukherjee, Ashin; Elmunzer, B. Joseph; Higgins, Peter DR; Lok, Anna S.; Zhu, Ji; Marrero, Jorge A; Waljee, Akbar K

2015-01-01

Background Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been limited by modest accuracy and lack of validation. Machine learning algorithms offer a novel methodology, which may improve HCC risk prognostication among patients with cirrhosis. Our study's aim was to develop and compare predictive models for HCC development among cirrhotic patients, using conventional regression analysis and machine learning algorithms. Methods We enrolled 442 patients with Child A or B cirrhosis at the University of Michigan between January 2004 and September 2006 (UM cohort) and prospectively followed them until HCC development, liver transplantation, death, or study termination. Regression analysis and machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models for HCC development, which were tested on an independent validation cohort from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial. Both models were also compared to the previously published HALT-C model. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and diagnostic accuracy was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement statistics. Results After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients developed HCC. The UM regression model had a c-statistic of 0.61 (95%CI 0.56-0.67), whereas the machine learning algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.64 (95%CI 0.60–0.69) in the validation cohort. The machine learning algorithm had significantly better diagnostic accuracy as assessed by net reclassification improvement (pmachine learning algorithm (p=0.047). Conclusion Machine learning algorithms improve the accuracy of risk stratifying patients with cirrhosis and can be used to accurately identify patients at high-risk for developing HCC. PMID:24169273

Applying machine learning to predict patient-specific current CD 4 ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This work shows the application of machine learning to predict current CD4 cell count of an HIV-positive patient using genome sequences, viral load and time. A regression model predicting actual CD4 cell counts and a classification model predicting if a patient's CD4 cell count is less than 200 was built using a support ...

Improving orbit prediction accuracy through supervised machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Hao; Bai, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

Due to the lack of information such as the space environment condition and resident space objects' (RSOs') body characteristics, current orbit predictions that are solely grounded on physics-based models may fail to achieve required accuracy for collision avoidance and have led to satellite collisions already. This paper presents a methodology to predict RSOs' trajectories with higher accuracy than that of the current methods. Inspired by the machine learning (ML) theory through which the models are learned based on large amounts of observed data and the prediction is conducted without explicitly modeling space objects and space environment, the proposed ML approach integrates physics-based orbit prediction algorithms with a learning-based process that focuses on reducing the prediction errors. Using a simulation-based space catalog environment as the test bed, the paper demonstrates three types of generalization capability for the proposed ML approach: (1) the ML model can be used to improve the same RSO's orbit information that is not available during the learning process but shares the same time interval as the training data; (2) the ML model can be used to improve predictions of the same RSO at future epochs; and (3) the ML model based on a RSO can be applied to other RSOs that share some common features.

Daily sea level prediction at Chiayi coast, Taiwan using extreme learning machine and relevance vector machine

Science.gov (United States)

Imani, Moslem; Kao, Huan-Chin; Lan, Wen-Hau; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2018-02-01

The analysis and the prediction of sea level fluctuations are core requirements of marine meteorology and operational oceanography. Estimates of sea level with hours-to-days warning times are especially important for low-lying regions and coastal zone management. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the applicability and capability of extreme learning machine (ELM) and relevance vector machine (RVM) models for predicting sea level variations and compare their performances with powerful machine learning methods, namely, support vector machine (SVM) and radial basis function (RBF) models. The input dataset from the period of January 2004 to May 2011 used in the study was obtained from the Dongshi tide gauge station in Chiayi, Taiwan. Results showed that the ELM and RVM models outperformed the other methods. The performance of the RVM approach was superior in predicting the daily sea level time series given the minimum root mean square error of 34.73 mm and the maximum determination coefficient of 0.93 (R2) during the testing periods. Furthermore, the obtained results were in close agreement with the original tide-gauge data, which indicates that RVM approach is a promising alternative method for time series prediction and could be successfully used for daily sea level forecasts.

Machine Learning Techniques for Prediction of Early Childhood Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugan, T M; Mukhopadhyay, S; Carroll, A; Downs, S

2015-01-01

This paper aims to predict childhood obesity after age two, using only data collected prior to the second birthday by a clinical decision support system called CHICA. Analyses of six different machine learning methods: RandomTree, RandomForest, J48, ID3, Naïve Bayes, and Bayes trained on CHICA data show that an accurate, sensitive model can be created. Of the methods analyzed, the ID3 model trained on the CHICA dataset proved the best overall performance with accuracy of 85% and sensitivity of 89%. Additionally, the ID3 model had a positive predictive value of 84% and a negative predictive value of 88%. The structure of the tree also gives insight into the strongest predictors of future obesity in children. Many of the strongest predictors seen in the ID3 modeling of the CHICA dataset have been independently validated in the literature as correlated with obesity, thereby supporting the validity of the model. This study demonstrated that data from a production clinical decision support system can be used to build an accurate machine learning model to predict obesity in children after age two.

Pressure Prediction of Coal Slurry Transportation Pipeline Based on Particle Swarm Optimization Kernel Function Extreme Learning Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xue-cun Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available For coal slurry pipeline blockage prediction problem, through the analysis of actual scene, it is determined that the pressure prediction from each measuring point is the premise of pipeline blockage prediction. Kernel function of support vector machine is introduced into extreme learning machine, the parameters are optimized by particle swarm algorithm, and blockage prediction method based on particle swarm optimization kernel function extreme learning machine (PSOKELM is put forward. The actual test data from HuangLing coal gangue power plant are used for simulation experiments and compared with support vector machine prediction model optimized by particle swarm algorithm (PSOSVM and kernel function extreme learning machine prediction model (KELM. The results prove that mean square error (MSE for the prediction model based on PSOKELM is 0.0038 and the correlation coefficient is 0.9955, which is superior to prediction model based on PSOSVM in speed and accuracy and superior to KELM prediction model in accuracy.

Semi-supervised prediction of gene regulatory networks using machine learning algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Nihir; Wang, Jason T L

2015-10-01

Use of computational methods to predict gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from gene expression data is a challenging task. Many studies have been conducted using unsupervised methods to fulfill the task; however, such methods usually yield low prediction accuracies due to the lack of training data. In this article, we propose semi-supervised methods for GRN prediction by utilizing two machine learning algorithms, namely, support vector machines (SVM) and random forests (RF). The semi-supervised methods make use of unlabelled data for training. We investigated inductive and transductive learning approaches, both of which adopt an iterative procedure to obtain reliable negative training data from the unlabelled data. We then applied our semi-supervised methods to gene expression data of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and evaluated the performance of our methods using the expression data. Our analysis indicated that the transductive learning approach outperformed the inductive learning approach for both organisms. However, there was no conclusive difference identified in the performance of SVM and RF. Experimental results also showed that the proposed semi-supervised methods performed better than existing supervised methods for both organisms.

Prediction of skin sensitization potency using machine learning approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Zang, Qingda; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M; Bell, Shannon; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Allen, David; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Casey, Warren; Strickland, Judy

2017-07-01

The replacement of animal use in testing for regulatory classification of skin sensitizers is a priority for US federal agencies that use data from such testing. Machine learning models that classify substances as sensitizers or non-sensitizers without using animal data have been developed and evaluated. Because some regulatory agencies require that sensitizers be further classified into potency categories, we developed statistical models to predict skin sensitization potency for murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) and human outcomes. Input variables for our models included six physicochemical properties and data from three non-animal test methods: direct peptide reactivity assay; human cell line activation test; and KeratinoSens™ assay. Models were built to predict three potency categories using four machine learning approaches and were validated using external test sets and leave-one-out cross-validation. A one-tiered strategy modeled all three categories of response together while a two-tiered strategy modeled sensitizer/non-sensitizer responses and then classified the sensitizers as strong or weak sensitizers. The two-tiered model using the support vector machine with all assay and physicochemical data inputs provided the best performance, yielding accuracy of 88% for prediction of LLNA outcomes (120 substances) and 81% for prediction of human test outcomes (87 substances). The best one-tiered model predicted LLNA outcomes with 78% accuracy and human outcomes with 75% accuracy. By comparison, the LLNA predicts human potency categories with 69% accuracy (60 of 87 substances correctly categorized). These results suggest that computational models using non-animal methods may provide valuable information for assessing skin sensitization potency. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using machine learning, neural networks and statistics to predict bankruptcy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pompe, P.P.M.; Feelders, A.J.; Feelders, A.J.

1997-01-01

Recent literature strongly suggests that machine learning approaches to classification outperform "classical" statistical methods. We make a comparison between the performance of linear discriminant analysis, classification trees, and neural networks in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Linear

Machine learning and predictive data analytics enabling metrology and process control in IC fabrication

Science.gov (United States)

Rana, Narender; Zhang, Yunlin; Wall, Donald; Dirahoui, Bachir; Bailey, Todd C.

2015-03-01

Integrate circuit (IC) technology is going through multiple changes in terms of patterning techniques (multiple patterning, EUV and DSA), device architectures (FinFET, nanowire, graphene) and patterning scale (few nanometers). These changes require tight controls on processes and measurements to achieve the required device performance, and challenge the metrology and process control in terms of capability and quality. Multivariate data with complex nonlinear trends and correlations generally cannot be described well by mathematical or parametric models but can be relatively easily learned by computing machines and used to predict or extrapolate. This paper introduces the predictive metrology approach which has been applied to three different applications. Machine learning and predictive analytics have been leveraged to accurately predict dimensions of EUV resist patterns down to 18 nm half pitch leveraging resist shrinkage patterns. These patterns could not be directly and accurately measured due to metrology tool limitations. Machine learning has also been applied to predict the electrical performance early in the process pipeline for deep trench capacitance and metal line resistance. As the wafer goes through various processes its associated cost multiplies. It may take days to weeks to get the electrical performance readout. Predicting the electrical performance early on can be very valuable in enabling timely actionable decision such as rework, scrap, feedforward, feedback predicted information or information derived from prediction to improve or monitor processes. This paper provides a general overview of machine learning and advanced analytics application in the advanced semiconductor development and manufacturing.

Machine learning methods in predicting the student academic motivation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Đurđević Babić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Academic motivation is closely related to academic performance. For educators, it is equally important to detect early students with a lack of academic motivation as it is to detect those with a high level of academic motivation. In endeavouring to develop a classification model for predicting student academic motivation based on their behaviour in learning management system (LMS courses, this paper intends to establish links between the predicted student academic motivation and their behaviour in the LMS course. Students from all years at the Faculty of Education in Osijek participated in this research. Three machine learning classifiers (neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines were used. To establish whether a significant difference in the performance of models exists, a t-test of the difference in proportions was used. Although, all classifiers were successful, the neural network model was shown to be the most successful in detecting the student academic motivation based on their behaviour in LMS course.

Exploration of machine learning techniques in predicting multiple sclerosis disease course

OpenAIRE

Zhao, Yijun; Healy, Brian C.; Rotstein, Dalia; Guttmann, Charles R. G.; Bakshi, Rohit; Weiner, Howard L.; Brodley, Carla E.; Chitnis, Tanuja

2017-01-01

Objective To explore the value of machine learning methods for predicting multiple sclerosis disease course. Methods 1693 CLIMB study patients were classified as increased EDSS?1.5 (worsening) or not (non-worsening) at up to five years after baseline visit. Support vector machines (SVM) were used to build the classifier, and compared to logistic regression (LR) using demographic, clinical and MRI data obtained at years one and two to predict EDSS at five years follow-up. Results Baseline data...

Addressing uncertainty in atomistic machine learning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peterson, Andrew A.; Christensen, Rune; Khorshidi, Alireza

2017-01-01

Machine-learning regression has been demonstrated to precisely emulate the potential energy and forces that are output from more expensive electronic-structure calculations. However, to predict new regions of the potential energy surface, an assessment must be made of the credibility of the predi......Machine-learning regression has been demonstrated to precisely emulate the potential energy and forces that are output from more expensive electronic-structure calculations. However, to predict new regions of the potential energy surface, an assessment must be made of the credibility...... of the predictions. In this perspective, we address the types of errors that might arise in atomistic machine learning, the unique aspects of atomistic simulations that make machine-learning challenging, and highlight how uncertainty analysis can be used to assess the validity of machine-learning predictions. We...... suggest this will allow researchers to more fully use machine learning for the routine acceleration of large, high-accuracy, or extended-time simulations. In our demonstrations, we use a bootstrap ensemble of neural network-based calculators, and show that the width of the ensemble can provide an estimate...

Machine learning in updating predictive models of planning and scheduling transportation projects

Science.gov (United States)

1997-01-01

A method combining machine learning and regression analysis to automatically and intelligently update predictive models used in the Kansas Department of Transportations (KDOTs) internal management system is presented. The predictive models used...

Introduction to machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Baştanlar, Yalin; Ozuysal, Mustafa

2014-01-01

The machine learning field, which can be briefly defined as enabling computers make successful predictions using past experiences, has exhibited an impressive development recently with the help of the rapid increase in the storage capacity and processing power of computers. Together with many other disciplines, machine learning methods have been widely employed in bioinformatics. The difficulties and cost of biological analyses have led to the development of sophisticated machine learning approaches for this application area. In this chapter, we first review the fundamental concepts of machine learning such as feature assessment, unsupervised versus supervised learning and types of classification. Then, we point out the main issues of designing machine learning experiments and their performance evaluation. Finally, we introduce some supervised learning methods.

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hanbong; Malik, Waqar; Jung, Yoon C.

2016-01-01

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Applying Machine Learning and High Performance Computing to Water Quality Assessment and Prediction

OpenAIRE

Ruijian Zhang; Deren Li

2017-01-01

Water quality assessment and prediction is a more and more important issue. Traditional ways either take lots of time or they can only do assessments. In this research, by applying machine learning algorithm to a long period time of water attributes’ data; we can generate a decision tree so that it can predict the future day’s water quality in an easy and efficient way. The idea is to combine the traditional ways and the computer algorithms together. Using machine learning algorithms, the ass...

Applying machine learning to predict patient-specific current CD4 ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Apple apple

This work shows the application of machine learning to predict current CD4 cell count of an HIV- .... Pre-processing ... remaining data elements of the PR and RT datasets. ... technique based on the structure of the human brain's neuron.

Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Díaz, I.; Mazza, S.M.; Combarro, E.F.; Giménez, L.I.; Gaiad, J.E.

2017-01-01

An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees' age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8) and relative mean absolute error (~0.1). These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene Díaz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees’ age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8 and relative mean absolute error (~0.1. These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Díaz, I.; Mazza, S.M.; Combarro, E.F.; Giménez, L.I.; Gaiad, J.E.

2017-07-01

An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees' age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8) and relative mean absolute error (~0.1). These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

Exploring prediction uncertainty of spatial data in geostatistical and machine learning Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Klump, J. F.; Fouedjio, F.

2017-12-01

Geostatistical methods such as kriging with external drift as well as machine learning techniques such as quantile regression forest have been intensively used for modelling spatial data. In addition to providing predictions for target variables, both approaches are able to deliver a quantification of the uncertainty associated with the prediction at a target location. Geostatistical approaches are, by essence, adequate for providing such prediction uncertainties and their behaviour is well understood. However, they often require significant data pre-processing and rely on assumptions that are rarely met in practice. Machine learning algorithms such as random forest regression, on the other hand, require less data pre-processing and are non-parametric. This makes the application of machine learning algorithms to geostatistical problems an attractive proposition. The objective of this study is to compare kriging with external drift and quantile regression forest with respect to their ability to deliver reliable prediction uncertainties of spatial data. In our comparison we use both simulated and real world datasets. Apart from classical performance indicators, comparisons make use of accuracy plots, probability interval width plots, and the visual examinations of the uncertainty maps provided by the two approaches. By comparing random forest regression to kriging we found that both methods produced comparable maps of estimated values for our variables of interest. However, the measure of uncertainty provided by random forest seems to be quite different to the measure of uncertainty provided by kriging. In particular, the lack of spatial context can give misleading results in areas without ground truth data. These preliminary results raise questions about assessing the risks associated with decisions based on the predictions from geostatistical and machine learning algorithms in a spatial context, e.g. mineral exploration.

Identifying predictive features in drug response using machine learning: opportunities and challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Vidyasagar, Mathukumalli

2015-01-01

This article reviews several techniques from machine learning that can be used to study the problem of identifying a small number of features, from among tens of thousands of measured features, that can accurately predict a drug response. Prediction problems are divided into two categories: sparse classification and sparse regression. In classification, the clinical parameter to be predicted is binary, whereas in regression, the parameter is a real number. Well-known methods for both classes of problems are briefly discussed. These include the SVM (support vector machine) for classification and various algorithms such as ridge regression, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), and EN (elastic net) for regression. In addition, several well-established methods that do not directly fall into machine learning theory are also reviewed, including neural networks, PAM (pattern analysis for microarrays), SAM (significance analysis for microarrays), GSEA (gene set enrichment analysis), and k-means clustering. Several references indicative of the application of these methods to cancer biology are discussed.

Machine learning landscapes and predictions for patient outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Ritankar; Wales, David J.

2017-07-01

The theory and computational tools developed to interpret and explore energy landscapes in molecular science are applied to the landscapes defined by local minima for neural networks. These machine learning landscapes correspond to fits of training data, where the inputs are vital signs and laboratory measurements for a database of patients, and the objective is to predict a clinical outcome. In this contribution, we test the predictions obtained by fitting to single measurements, and then to combinations of between 2 and 10 different patient medical data items. The effect of including measurements over different time intervals from the 48 h period in question is analysed, and the most recent values are found to be the most important. We also compare results obtained for neural networks as a function of the number of hidden nodes, and for different values of a regularization parameter. The predictions are compared with an alternative convex fitting function, and a strong correlation is observed. The dependence of these results on the patients randomly selected for training and testing decreases systematically with the size of the database available. The machine learning landscapes defined by neural network fits in this investigation have single-funnel character, which probably explains why it is relatively straightforward to obtain the global minimum solution, or a fit that behaves similarly to this optimal parameterization.

Machine learning for predicting the response of breast cancer to neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Mani, Subramani; Chen, Yukun; Li, Xia; Arlinghaus, Lori; Chakravarthy, A Bapsi; Abramson, Vandana; Bhave, Sandeep R; Levy, Mia A; Xu, Hua; Yankeelov, Thomas E

2013-01-01

To employ machine learning methods to predict the eventual therapeutic response of breast cancer patients after a single cycle of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI and diffusion-weighted MRI data were acquired on 28 patients before and after one cycle of NAC. A total of 118 semiquantitative and quantitative parameters were derived from these data and combined with 11 clinical variables. We used Bayesian logistic regression in combination with feature selection using a machine learning framework for predictive model building. The best predictive models using feature selection obtained an area under the curve of 0.86 and an accuracy of 0.86, with a sensitivity of 0.88 and a specificity of 0.82. With the numerous options for NAC available, development of a method to predict response early in the course of therapy is needed. Unfortunately, by the time most patients are found not to be responding, their disease may no longer be surgically resectable, and this situation could be avoided by the development of techniques to assess response earlier in the treatment regimen. The method outlined here is one possible solution to this important clinical problem. Predictive modeling approaches based on machine learning using readily available clinical and quantitative MRI data show promise in distinguishing breast cancer responders from non-responders after the first cycle of NAC.

Introduction to machine learning

OpenAIRE

Baştanlar, Yalın; Özuysal, Mustafa

2014-01-01

The machine learning field, which can be briefly defined as enabling computers make successful predictions using past experiences, has exhibited an impressive development recently with the help of the rapid increase in the storage capacity and processing power of computers. Together with many other disciplines, machine learning methods have been widely employed in bioinformatics. The difficulties and cost of biological analyses have led to the development of sophisticated machine learning app...

Machine learning for predicting soil classes in three semi-arid landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Brungard, Colby W.; Boettinger, Janis L.; Duniway, Michael C.; Wills, Skye A.; Edwards, Thomas C.

2015-01-01

Mapping the spatial distribution of soil taxonomic classes is important for informing soil use and management decisions. Digital soil mapping (DSM) can quantitatively predict the spatial distribution of soil taxonomic classes. Key components of DSM are the method and the set of environmental covariates used to predict soil classes. Machine learning is a general term for a broad set of statistical modeling techniques. Many different machine learning models have been applied in the literature and there are different approaches for selecting covariates for DSM. However, there is little guidance as to which, if any, machine learning model and covariate set might be optimal for predicting soil classes across different landscapes. Our objective was to compare multiple machine learning models and covariate sets for predicting soil taxonomic classes at three geographically distinct areas in the semi-arid western United States of America (southern New Mexico, southwestern Utah, and northeastern Wyoming). All three areas were the focus of digital soil mapping studies. Sampling sites at each study area were selected using conditioned Latin hypercube sampling (cLHS). We compared models that had been used in other DSM studies, including clustering algorithms, discriminant analysis, multinomial logistic regression, neural networks, tree based methods, and support vector machine classifiers. Tested machine learning models were divided into three groups based on model complexity: simple, moderate, and complex. We also compared environmental covariates derived from digital elevation models and Landsat imagery that were divided into three different sets: 1) covariates selected a priori by soil scientists familiar with each area and used as input into cLHS, 2) the covariates in set 1 plus 113 additional covariates, and 3) covariates selected using recursive feature elimination. Overall, complex models were consistently more accurate than simple or moderately complex models. Random

Supervised machine learning techniques to predict binding affinity. A study for cyclin-dependent kinase 2.

Science.gov (United States)

de Ávila, Maurício Boff; Xavier, Mariana Morrone; Pintro, Val Oliveira; de Azevedo, Walter Filgueira

2017-12-09

Here we report the development of a machine-learning model to predict binding affinity based on the crystallographic structures of protein-ligand complexes. We used an ensemble of crystallographic structures (resolution better than 1.5 Å resolution) for which half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC 50 ) data is available. Polynomial scoring functions were built using as explanatory variables the energy terms present in the MolDock and PLANTS scoring functions. Prediction performance was tested and the supervised machine learning models showed improvement in the prediction power, when compared with PLANTS and MolDock scoring functions. In addition, the machine-learning model was applied to predict binding affinity of CDK2, which showed a better performance when compared with AutoDock4, AutoDock Vina, MolDock, and PLANTS scores. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of outcome in internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy for paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder: A machine learning approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenhard, Fabian; Sauer, Sebastian; Andersson, Erik; Månsson, Kristoffer Nt; Mataix-Cols, David; Rück, Christian; Serlachius, Eva

2018-03-01

There are no consistent predictors of treatment outcome in paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). One reason for this might be the use of suboptimal statistical methodology. Machine learning is an approach to efficiently analyse complex data. Machine learning has been widely used within other fields, but has rarely been tested in the prediction of paediatric mental health treatment outcomes. To test four different machine learning methods in the prediction of treatment response in a sample of paediatric OCD patients who had received Internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy (ICBT). Participants were 61 adolescents (12-17 years) who enrolled in a randomized controlled trial and received ICBT. All clinical baseline variables were used to predict strictly defined treatment response status three months after ICBT. Four machine learning algorithms were implemented. For comparison, we also employed a traditional logistic regression approach. Multivariate logistic regression could not detect any significant predictors. In contrast, all four machine learning algorithms performed well in the prediction of treatment response, with 75 to 83% accuracy. The results suggest that machine learning algorithms can successfully be applied to predict paediatric OCD treatment outcome. Validation studies and studies in other disorders are warranted. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Applying Machine Learning and High Performance Computing to Water Quality Assessment and Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruijian Zhang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Water quality assessment and prediction is a more and more important issue. Traditional ways either take lots of time or they can only do assessments. In this research, by applying machine learning algorithm to a long period time of water attributes’ data; we can generate a decision tree so that it can predict the future day’s water quality in an easy and efficient way. The idea is to combine the traditional ways and the computer algorithms together. Using machine learning algorithms, the assessment of water quality will be far more efficient, and by generating the decision tree, the prediction will be quite accurate. The drawback of the machine learning modeling is that the execution takes quite long time, especially when we employ a better accuracy but more time-consuming algorithm in clustering. Therefore, we applied the high performance computing (HPC System to deal with this problem. Up to now, the pilot experiments have achieved very promising preliminary results. The visualized water quality assessment and prediction obtained from this project would be published in an interactive website so that the public and the environmental managers could use the information for their decision making.

Machine learning techniques for optical communication system optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zibar, Darko; Wass, Jesper; Thrane, Jakob

In this paper, machine learning techniques relevant to optical communication are presented and discussed. The focus is on applying machine learning tools to optical performance monitoring and performance prediction.......In this paper, machine learning techniques relevant to optical communication are presented and discussed. The focus is on applying machine learning tools to optical performance monitoring and performance prediction....

Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

2017-06-14

Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

SU-F-P-20: Predicting Waiting Times in Radiation Oncology Using Machine Learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph, A; Herrera, D; Hijal, T; Kildea, J; Hendren, L; Leung, A; Wainberg, J; Sawaf, M; Gorshkov, M; Maglieri, R; Keshavarz, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: Waiting times remain one of the most vexing patient satisfaction challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick or in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. These waiting periods are often difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided based on personal experience. This level of uncertainty leaves most patients unable to plan their calendar, making the waiting experience uncomfortable, even painful. In the present era of electronic health records (EHRs), waiting times need not be so uncertain. Extensive EHRs provide unprecedented amounts of data that can statistically cluster towards representative values when appropriate patient cohorts are selected. Predictive modelling, such as machine learning, is a powerful approach that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The application of a machine learning algorithm to waiting time data has the potential to produce personalized waiting time predictions such that the uncertainty may be removed from the patient’s waiting experience. Methods: In radiation oncology, patients typically experience several types of waiting (eg waiting at home for treatment planning, waiting in the waiting room for oncologist appointments and daily waiting in the waiting room for radiotherapy treatments). A daily treatment wait time model is discussed in this report. To develop a prediction model using our large dataset (with more than 100k sample points) a variety of machine learning algorithms from the Python package sklearn were tested. Results: We found that the Random Forest Regressor model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times. Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual value minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes

SU-F-P-20: Predicting Waiting Times in Radiation Oncology Using Machine Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joseph, A; Herrera, D; Hijal, T; Kildea, J [McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Hendren, L; Leung, A; Wainberg, J; Sawaf, M; Gorshkov, M; Maglieri, R; Keshavarz, M [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Waiting times remain one of the most vexing patient satisfaction challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick or in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. These waiting periods are often difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided based on personal experience. This level of uncertainty leaves most patients unable to plan their calendar, making the waiting experience uncomfortable, even painful. In the present era of electronic health records (EHRs), waiting times need not be so uncertain. Extensive EHRs provide unprecedented amounts of data that can statistically cluster towards representative values when appropriate patient cohorts are selected. Predictive modelling, such as machine learning, is a powerful approach that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The application of a machine learning algorithm to waiting time data has the potential to produce personalized waiting time predictions such that the uncertainty may be removed from the patient’s waiting experience. Methods: In radiation oncology, patients typically experience several types of waiting (eg waiting at home for treatment planning, waiting in the waiting room for oncologist appointments and daily waiting in the waiting room for radiotherapy treatments). A daily treatment wait time model is discussed in this report. To develop a prediction model using our large dataset (with more than 100k sample points) a variety of machine learning algorithms from the Python package sklearn were tested. Results: We found that the Random Forest Regressor model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times. Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual value minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes

Comparing statistical and machine learning classifiers: alternatives for predictive modeling in human factors research.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnahan, Brian; Meyer, Gérard; Kuntz, Lois-Ann

2003-01-01

Multivariate classification models play an increasingly important role in human factors research. In the past, these models have been based primarily on discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Models developed from machine learning research offer the human factors professional a viable alternative to these traditional statistical classification methods. To illustrate this point, two machine learning approaches--genetic programming and decision tree induction--were used to construct classification models designed to predict whether or not a student truck driver would pass his or her commercial driver license (CDL) examination. The models were developed and validated using the curriculum scores and CDL exam performances of 37 student truck drivers who had completed a 320-hr driver training course. Results indicated that the machine learning classification models were superior to discriminant analysis and logistic regression in terms of predictive accuracy. Actual or potential applications of this research include the creation of models that more accurately predict human performance outcomes.

Predictive Power of Machine Learning for Optimizing Solar Water Heater Performance: The Potential Application of High-Throughput Screening

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Predicting the performance of solar water heater (SWH is challenging due to the complexity of the system. Fortunately, knowledge-based machine learning can provide a fast and precise prediction method for SWH performance. With the predictive power of machine learning models, we can further solve a more challenging question: how to cost-effectively design a high-performance SWH? Here, we summarize our recent studies and propose a general framework of SWH design using a machine learning-based high-throughput screening (HTS method. Design of water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heater (WGET-SWH is selected as a case study to show the potential application of machine learning-based HTS to the design and optimization of solar energy systems.

Multi-fidelity machine learning models for accurate bandgap predictions of solids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilania, Ghanshyam; Gubernatis, James E.; Lookman, Turab

2016-01-01

Here, we present a multi-fidelity co-kriging statistical learning framework that combines variable-fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of bandgaps to generate a machine-learned model that enables low-cost accurate predictions of the bandgaps at the highest fidelity level. Additionally, the adopted Gaussian process regression formulation allows us to predict the underlying uncertainties as a measure of our confidence in the predictions. In using a set of 600 elpasolite compounds as an example dataset and using semi-local and hybrid exchange correlation functionals within density functional theory as two levels of fidelities, we demonstrate the excellent learning performance of the method against actual high fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of the bandgaps. The presented statistical learning method is not restricted to bandgaps or electronic structure methods and extends the utility of high throughput property predictions in a significant way.

Machine learning application in online lending risk prediction

OpenAIRE

Yu, Xiaojiao

2017-01-01

Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in applying big data technology in building risk model. In this manuscript, data with various format and size were collected from public website, third-parties and assembled with client's loan application information data. Ensemble machine learning models, random fo...

Predicting DPP-IV inhibitors with machine learning approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Jie; Li, Chanjuan; Liu, Zhihong; Du, Jiewen; Ye, Jiming; Gu, Qiong; Xu, Jun

2017-04-01

Dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) is a promising Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) drug target. DPP-IV inhibitors prolong the action of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and gastric inhibitory peptide (GIP), improve glucose homeostasis without weight gain, edema, and hypoglycemia. However, the marketed DPP-IV inhibitors have adverse effects such as nasopharyngitis, headache, nausea, hypersensitivity, skin reactions and pancreatitis. Therefore, it is still expected for novel DPP-IV inhibitors with minimal adverse effects. The scaffolds of existing DPP-IV inhibitors are structurally diversified. This makes it difficult to build virtual screening models based upon the known DPP-IV inhibitor libraries using conventional QSAR approaches. In this paper, we report a new strategy to predict DPP-IV inhibitors with machine learning approaches involving naïve Bayesian (NB) and recursive partitioning (RP) methods. We built 247 machine learning models based on 1307 known DPP-IV inhibitors with optimized molecular properties and topological fingerprints as descriptors. The overall predictive accuracies of the optimized models were greater than 80%. An external test set, composed of 65 recently reported compounds, was employed to validate the optimized models. The results demonstrated that both NB and RP models have a good predictive ability based on different combinations of descriptors. Twenty "good" and twenty "bad" structural fragments for DPP-IV inhibitors can also be derived from these models for inspiring the new DPP-IV inhibitor scaffold design.

Machine Learning for Hackers

CERN Document Server

Conway, Drew

2012-01-01

If you're an experienced programmer interested in crunching data, this book will get you started with machine learning-a toolkit of algorithms that enables computers to train themselves to automate useful tasks. Authors Drew Conway and John Myles White help you understand machine learning and statistics tools through a series of hands-on case studies, instead of a traditional math-heavy presentation. Each chapter focuses on a specific problem in machine learning, such as classification, prediction, optimization, and recommendation. Using the R programming language, you'll learn how to analyz

Rapid Prediction of Bacterial Heterotrophic Fluxomics Using Machine Learning and Constraint Programming.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen Gang Wu

2016-04-01

Full Text Available 13C metabolic flux analysis (13C-MFA has been widely used to measure in vivo enzyme reaction rates (i.e., metabolic flux in microorganisms. Mining the relationship between environmental and genetic factors and metabolic fluxes hidden in existing fluxomic data will lead to predictive models that can significantly accelerate flux quantification. In this paper, we present a web-based platform MFlux (http://mflux.org that predicts the bacterial central metabolism via machine learning, leveraging data from approximately 100 13C-MFA papers on heterotrophic bacterial metabolisms. Three machine learning methods, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN, and Decision Tree, were employed to study the sophisticated relationship between influential factors and metabolic fluxes. We performed a grid search of the best parameter set for each algorithm and verified their performance through 10-fold cross validations. SVM yields the highest accuracy among all three algorithms. Further, we employed quadratic programming to adjust flux profiles to satisfy stoichiometric constraints. Multiple case studies have shown that MFlux can reasonably predict fluxomes as a function of bacterial species, substrate types, growth rate, oxygen conditions, and cultivation methods. Due to the interest of studying model organism under particular carbon sources, bias of fluxome in the dataset may limit the applicability of machine learning models. This problem can be resolved after more papers on 13C-MFA are published for non-model species.

Multi-level machine learning prediction of protein–protein interactions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julian Zubek

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Accurate identification of protein–protein interactions (PPI is the key step in understanding proteins’ biological functions, which are typically context-dependent. Many existing PPI predictors rely on aggregated features from protein sequences, however only a few methods exploit local information about specific residue contacts. In this work we present a two-stage machine learning approach for prediction of protein–protein interactions. We start with the carefully filtered data on protein complexes available for Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the Protein Data Bank (PDB database. First, we build linear descriptions of interacting and non-interacting sequence segment pairs based on their inter-residue distances. Secondly, we train machine learning classifiers to predict binary segment interactions for any two short sequence fragments. The final prediction of the protein–protein interaction is done using the 2D matrix representation of all-against-all possible interacting sequence segments of both analysed proteins. The level-I predictor achieves 0.88 AUC for micro-scale, i.e., residue-level prediction. The level-II predictor improves the results further by a more complex learning paradigm. We perform 30-fold macro-scale, i.e., protein-level cross-validation experiment. The level-II predictor using PSIPRED-predicted secondary structure reaches 0.70 precision, 0.68 recall, and 0.70 AUC, whereas other popular methods provide results below 0.6 threshold (recall, precision, AUC. Our results demonstrate that multi-scale sequence features aggregation procedure is able to improve the machine learning results by more than 10% as compared to other sequence representations. Prepared datasets and source code for our experimental pipeline are freely available for download from: http://zubekj.github.io/mlppi/ (open source Python implementation, OS independent.

A machine learning approach for predicting the relationship between energy resources and economic development

Science.gov (United States)

Cogoljević, Dušan; Alizamir, Meysam; Piljan, Ivan; Piljan, Tatjana; Prljić, Katarina; Zimonjić, Stefan

2018-04-01

The linkage between energy resources and economic development is a topic of great interest. Research in this area is also motivated by contemporary concerns about global climate change, carbon emissions fluctuating crude oil prices, and the security of energy supply. The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the machine learning approach to predict gross domestic product (GDP) based on the mix of energy resources. Our results indicate that GDP predictive accuracy can be improved slightly by applying a machine learning approach.

Prediction of length-of-day using extreme learning machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Lei

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Traditional artificial neural networks (ANN such as back-propagation neural networks (BPNN provide good predictions of length-of-day (LOD. However, the determination of network topology is difficult and time consuming. Therefore, we propose a new type of neural network, extreme learning machine (ELM, to improve the efficiency of LOD predictions. Earth orientation parameters (EOP C04 time-series provides daily values from International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS, which serves as our database. First, the known predictable effects that can be described by functional models—such as the effects of solid earth, ocean tides, or seasonal atmospheric variations—are removed a priori from the C04 time-series. Only the residuals after the subtraction of a priori model from the observed LOD data (i.e., the irregular and quasi-periodic variations are employed for training and predictions. The predicted LOD is the sum of a prior extrapolation model and the ELM predictions of the residuals. Different input patterns are discussed and compared to optimize the network solution. The prediction results are analyzed and compared with those obtained by other machine learning-based prediction methods, including BPNN, generalization regression neural networks (GRNN, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS. It is shown that while achieving similar prediction accuracy, the developed method uses much less training time than other methods. Furthermore, to conduct a direct comparison with the existing prediction techniques, the mean-absolute-error (MAE from the proposed method is compared with that from the EOP prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC. The results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed method is comparable with that of the former techniques. The implementation of the proposed method is simple.

Clinical chemistry in higher dimensions: Machine-learning and enhanced prediction from routine clinical chemistry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Alice; Signor, Ben M; Lidbury, Brett A; Badrick, Tony

2016-11-01

Big Data is having an impact on many areas of research, not the least of which is biomedical science. In this review paper, big data and machine learning are defined in terms accessible to the clinical chemistry community. Seven myths associated with machine learning and big data are then presented, with the aim of managing expectation of machine learning amongst clinical chemists. The myths are illustrated with four examples investigating the relationship between biomarkers in liver function tests, enhanced laboratory prediction of hepatitis virus infection, the relationship between bilirubin and white cell count, and the relationship between red cell distribution width and laboratory prediction of anaemia. Copyright © 2016 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Employee Turnover in Organizations using Machine Learning Algorithms

OpenAIRE

Rohit Punnoose; Pankaj Ajit

2016-01-01

Employee turnover has been identified as a key issue for organizations because of its adverse impact on work place productivity and long term growth strategies. To solve this problem, organizations use machine learning techniques to predict employee turnover. Accurate predictions enable organizations to take action for retention or succession planning of employees. However, the data for this modeling problem comes from HR Information Systems (HRIS); these are typically under-funded compared t...

Guidelines for Developing and Reporting Machine Learning Predictive Models in Biomedical Research: A Multidisciplinary View.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Tran, Truyen; Gupta, Sunil; Rana, Santu; Karmakar, Chandan; Shilton, Alistair; Yearwood, John; Dimitrova, Nevenka; Ho, Tu Bao; Venkatesh, Svetha; Berk, Michael

2016-12-16

As more and more researchers are turning to big data for new opportunities of biomedical discoveries, machine learning models, as the backbone of big data analysis, are mentioned more often in biomedical journals. However, owing to the inherent complexity of machine learning methods, they are prone to misuse. Because of the flexibility in specifying machine learning models, the results are often insufficiently reported in research articles, hindering reliable assessment of model validity and consistent interpretation of model outputs. To attain a set of guidelines on the use of machine learning predictive models within clinical settings to make sure the models are correctly applied and sufficiently reported so that true discoveries can be distinguished from random coincidence. A multidisciplinary panel of machine learning experts, clinicians, and traditional statisticians were interviewed, using an iterative process in accordance with the Delphi method. The process produced a set of guidelines that consists of (1) a list of reporting items to be included in a research article and (2) a set of practical sequential steps for developing predictive models. A set of guidelines was generated to enable correct application of machine learning models and consistent reporting of model specifications and results in biomedical research. We believe that such guidelines will accelerate the adoption of big data analysis, particularly with machine learning methods, in the biomedical research community. ©Wei Luo, Dinh Phung, Truyen Tran, Sunil Gupta, Santu Rana, Chandan Karmakar, Alistair Shilton, John Yearwood, Nevenka Dimitrova, Tu Bao Ho, Svetha Venkatesh, Michael Berk. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 16.12.2016.

Computational prediction of multidisciplinary team decision-making for adjuvant breast cancer drug therapies: a machine learning approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Frank P Y; Pokorny, Adrian; Teng, Christina; Dear, Rachel; Epstein, Richard J

2016-12-01

Multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings are used to optimise expert decision-making about treatment options, but such expertise is not digitally transferable between centres. To help standardise medical decision-making, we developed a machine learning model designed to predict MDT decisions about adjuvant breast cancer treatments. We analysed MDT decisions regarding adjuvant systemic therapy for 1065 breast cancer cases over eight years. Machine learning classifiers with and without bootstrap aggregation were correlated with MDT decisions (recommended, not recommended, or discussable) regarding adjuvant cytotoxic, endocrine and biologic/targeted therapies, then tested for predictability using stratified ten-fold cross-validations. The predictions so derived were duly compared with those based on published (ESMO and NCCN) cancer guidelines. Machine learning more accurately predicted adjuvant chemotherapy MDT decisions than did simple application of guidelines. No differences were found between MDT- vs. ESMO/NCCN- based decisions to prescribe either adjuvant endocrine (97%, p = 0.44/0.74) or biologic/targeted therapies (98%, p = 0.82/0.59). In contrast, significant discrepancies were evident between MDT- and guideline-based decisions to prescribe chemotherapy (87%, p machine learning models. A machine learning approach based on clinicopathologic characteristics can predict MDT decisions about adjuvant breast cancer drug therapies. The discrepancy between MDT- and guideline-based decisions regarding adjuvant chemotherapy implies that certain non-clincopathologic criteria, such as patient preference and resource availability, are factored into clinical decision-making by local experts but not captured by guidelines.

Using Machine Learning to Predict MCNP Bias

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grechanuk, Pavel Aleksandrovi [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2018-01-09

For many real-world applications in radiation transport where simulations are compared to experimental measurements, like in nuclear criticality safety, the bias (simulated - experimental k_eff) in the calculation is an extremely important quantity used for code validation. The objective of this project is to accurately predict the bias of MCNP6 [1] criticality calculations using machine learning (ML) algorithms, with the intention of creating a tool that can complement the current nuclear criticality safety methods. In the latest release of MCNP6, the Whisper tool is available for criticality safety analysts and includes a large catalogue of experimental benchmarks, sensitivity profiles, and nuclear data covariance matrices. This data, coming from 1100+ benchmark cases, is used in this study of ML algorithms for criticality safety bias predictions.

Quantum Machine Learning

OpenAIRE

Romero García, Cristian

2017-01-01

[EN] In a world in which accessible information grows exponentially, the selection of the appropriate information turns out to be an extremely relevant problem. In this context, the idea of Machine Learning (ML), a subfield of Artificial Intelligence, emerged to face problems in data mining, pattern recognition, automatic prediction, among others. Quantum Machine Learning is an interdisciplinary research area combining quantum mechanics with methods of ML, in which quantum properties allow fo...

Prediction of stroke thrombolysis outcome using CT brain machine learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Bentley

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A critical decision-step in the emergency treatment of ischemic stroke is whether or not to administer thrombolysis — a treatment that can result in good recovery, or deterioration due to symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (SICH. Certain imaging features based upon early computerized tomography (CT, in combination with clinical variables, have been found to predict SICH, albeit with modest accuracy. In this proof-of-concept study, we determine whether machine learning of CT images can predict which patients receiving tPA will develop SICH as opposed to showing clinical improvement with no haemorrhage. Clinical records and CT brains of 116 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis were collected retrospectively (including 16 who developed SICH. The sample was split into training (n = 106 and test sets (n = 10, repeatedly for 1760 different combinations. CT brain images acted as inputs into a support vector machine (SVM, along with clinical severity. Performance of the SVM was compared with established prognostication tools (SEDAN and HAT scores; original, or after adaptation to our cohort. Predictive performance, assessed as area under receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC, of the SVM (0.744 compared favourably with that of prognostic scores (original and adapted versions: 0.626–0.720; p < 0.01. The SVM also identified 9 out of 16 SICHs, as opposed to 1–5 using prognostic scores, assuming a 10% SICH frequency (p < 0.001. In summary, machine learning methods applied to acute stroke CT images offer automation, and potentially improved performance, for prediction of SICH following thrombolysis. Larger-scale cohorts, and incorporation of advanced imaging, should be tested with such methods.

Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Cornejo-Bueno

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

Pileup Subtraction and Jet Energy Prediction Using Machine Learning

OpenAIRE

Kong, Vein S; Li, Jiakun; Zhang, Yujia

2015-01-01

In the Large Hardron Collider (LHC), multiple proton-proton collisions cause pileup in reconstructing energy information for a single primary collision (jet). This project aims to select the most important features and create a model to accurately estimate jet energy. Different machine learning methods were explored, including linear regression, support vector regression and decision tree. The best result is obtained by linear regression with predictive features and the performance is improve...

On the Conditioning of Machine-Learning-Assisted Turbulence Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jinlong; Sun, Rui; Wang, Qiqi; Xiao, Heng

2017-11-01

Recently, several researchers have demonstrated that machine learning techniques can be used to improve the RANS modeled Reynolds stress by training on available database of high fidelity simulations. However, obtaining improved mean velocity field remains an unsolved challenge, restricting the predictive capability of current machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling approaches. In this work we define a condition number to evaluate the model conditioning of data-driven turbulence modeling approaches, and propose a stability-oriented machine learning framework to model Reynolds stress. Two canonical flows, the flow in a square duct and the flow over periodic hills, are investigated to demonstrate the predictive capability of the proposed framework. The satisfactory prediction performance of mean velocity field for both flows demonstrates the predictive capability of the proposed framework for machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling. With showing the capability of improving the prediction of mean flow field, the proposed stability-oriented machine learning framework bridges the gap between the existing machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling approaches and the demand of predictive capability of turbulence models in real applications.

Prediction of diffuse solar irradiance using machine learning and multivariable regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lou, Siwei; Li, Danny H.W.; Lam, Joseph C.; Chan, Wilco W.H.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • 54.9% of the annual global irradiance is composed by its diffuse part in HK. • Hourly diffuse irradiance was predicted by accessible variables. • The importance of variable in prediction was assessed by machine learning. • Simple prediction equations were developed with the knowledge of variable importance. - Abstract: The paper studies the horizontal global, direct-beam and sky-diffuse solar irradiance data measured in Hong Kong from 2008 to 2013. A machine learning algorithm was employed to predict the horizontal sky-diffuse irradiance and conduct sensitivity analysis for the meteorological variables. Apart from the clearness index (horizontal global/extra atmospheric solar irradiance), we found that predictors including solar altitude, air temperature, cloud cover and visibility are also important in predicting the diffuse component. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the logistic regression using the aforementioned predictors was less than 21.5 W/m"2 and 30 W/m"2 for Hong Kong and Denver, USA, respectively. With the systematic recording of the five variables for more than 35 years, the proposed model would be appropriate to estimate of long-term diffuse solar radiation, study climate change and develope typical meteorological year in Hong Kong and places with similar climates.

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

A comparison of machine learning techniques for predicting downstream acid mine drainage

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

van Zyl, TL

2014-07-01

Full Text Available windowing approach over historical values to generate a prediction for the current value. We evaluate a number of Machine Learning techniques as regressors including Support Vector Regression, Random Forests, Stochastic Gradient Decent Regression, Linear...

Statistical and Machine-Learning Data Mining Techniques for Better Predictive Modeling and Analysis of Big Data

CERN Document Server

Ratner, Bruce

2011-01-01

The second edition of a bestseller, Statistical and Machine-Learning Data Mining: Techniques for Better Predictive Modeling and Analysis of Big Data is still the only book, to date, to distinguish between statistical data mining and machine-learning data mining. The first edition, titled Statistical Modeling and Analysis for Database Marketing: Effective Techniques for Mining Big Data, contained 17 chapters of innovative and practical statistical data mining techniques. In this second edition, renamed to reflect the increased coverage of machine-learning data mining techniques, the author has

Prediction of beta-turns with learning machines.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Yu-Dong; Liu, Xiao-Jun; Li, Yi-Xue; Xu, Xue-biao; Chou, Kuo-Chen

2003-05-01

The support vector machine approach was introduced to predict the beta-turns in proteins. The overall self-consistency rate by the re-substitution test for the training or learning dataset reached 100%. Both the training dataset and independent testing dataset were taken from Chou [J. Pept. Res. 49 (1997) 120]. The success prediction rates by the jackknife test for the beta-turn subset of 455 tetrapeptides and non-beta-turn subset of 3807 tetrapeptides in the training dataset were 58.1 and 98.4%, respectively. The success rates with the independent dataset test for the beta-turn subset of 110 tetrapeptides and non-beta-turn subset of 30,231 tetrapeptides were 69.1 and 97.3%, respectively. The results obtained from this study support the conclusion that the residue-coupled effect along a tetrapeptide is important for the formation of a beta-turn.

Application of Machine-Learning Models to Predict Tacrolimus Stable Dose in Renal Transplant Recipients

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jie; Liu, Rong; Zhang, Yue-Li; Liu, Mou-Ze; Hu, Yong-Fang; Shao, Ming-Jie; Zhu, Li-Jun; Xin, Hua-Wen; Feng, Gui-Wen; Shang, Wen-Jun; Meng, Xiang-Guang; Zhang, Li-Rong; Ming, Ying-Zi; Zhang, Wei

2017-02-01

Tacrolimus has a narrow therapeutic window and considerable variability in clinical use. Our goal was to compare the performance of multiple linear regression (MLR) and eight machine learning techniques in pharmacogenetic algorithm-based prediction of tacrolimus stable dose (TSD) in a large Chinese cohort. A total of 1,045 renal transplant patients were recruited, 80% of which were randomly selected as the “derivation cohort” to develop dose-prediction algorithm, while the remaining 20% constituted the “validation cohort” to test the final selected algorithm. MLR, artificial neural network (ANN), regression tree (RT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), boosted regression tree (BRT), support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression (RFR), lasso regression (LAR) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) were applied and their performances were compared in this work. Among all the machine learning models, RT performed best in both derivation [0.71 (0.67-0.76)] and validation cohorts [0.73 (0.63-0.82)]. In addition, the ideal rate of RT was 4% higher than that of MLR. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use machine learning models to predict TSD, which will further facilitate personalized medicine in tacrolimus administration in the future.

Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, John; Schwartz, Russell; Flickinger, John; Beriwal, Sushil

2015-01-01

Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, “spam” filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the “barrier to entry” for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods—logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation.

MLBCD: a machine learning tool for big clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Gang

2015-01-01

Predictive modeling is fundamental for extracting value from large clinical data sets, or "big clinical data," advancing clinical research, and improving healthcare. Machine learning is a powerful approach to predictive modeling. Two factors make machine learning challenging for healthcare researchers. First, before training a machine learning model, the values of one or more model parameters called hyper-parameters must typically be specified. Due to their inexperience with machine learning, it is hard for healthcare researchers to choose an appropriate algorithm and hyper-parameter values. Second, many clinical data are stored in a special format. These data must be iteratively transformed into the relational table format before conducting predictive modeling. This transformation is time-consuming and requires computing expertise. This paper presents our vision for and design of MLBCD (Machine Learning for Big Clinical Data), a new software system aiming to address these challenges and facilitate building machine learning predictive models using big clinical data. The paper describes MLBCD's design in detail. By making machine learning accessible to healthcare researchers, MLBCD will open the use of big clinical data and increase the ability to foster biomedical discovery and improve care.

Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

Science.gov (United States)

Nishizuka, N.; Sugiura, K.; Kubo, Y.; Den, M.; Watari, S.; Ishii, M.

2017-02-01

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010-2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ˜60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishizuka, N.; Kubo, Y.; Den, M.; Watari, S.; Ishii, M.; Sugiura, K.

2017-01-01

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010–2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite . We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ∼60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nishizuka, N.; Kubo, Y.; Den, M.; Watari, S.; Ishii, M. [Applied Electromagnetic Research Institute, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, 4-2-1, Nukui-Kitamachi, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 (Japan); Sugiura, K., E-mail: nishizuka.naoto@nict.go.jp [Advanced Speech Translation Research and Development Promotion Center, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (Japan)

2017-02-01

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010–2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite . We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ∼60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

A Review of Current Machine Learning Methods Used for Cancer Recurrence Modeling and Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hemphill, Geralyn M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-09-27

Cancer has been characterized as a heterogeneous disease consisting of many different subtypes. The early diagnosis and prognosis of a cancer type has become a necessity in cancer research. A major challenge in cancer management is the classification of patients into appropriate risk groups for better treatment and follow-up. Such risk assessment is critically important in order to optimize the patient’s health and the use of medical resources, as well as to avoid cancer recurrence. This paper focuses on the application of machine learning methods for predicting the likelihood of a recurrence of cancer. It is not meant to be an extensive review of the literature on the subject of machine learning techniques for cancer recurrence modeling. Other recent papers have performed such a review, and I will rely heavily on the results and outcomes from these papers. The electronic databases that were used for this review include PubMed, Google, and Google Scholar. Query terms used include “cancer recurrence modeling”, “cancer recurrence and machine learning”, “cancer recurrence modeling and machine learning”, and “machine learning for cancer recurrence and prediction”. The most recent and most applicable papers to the topic of this review have been included in the references. It also includes a list of modeling and classification methods to predict cancer recurrence.

The validation and assessment of machine learning: a game of prediction from high-dimensional data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pers, Tune Hannes; Albrechtsen, A; Holst, C

2009-01-01

In applied statistics, tools from machine learning are popular for analyzing complex and high-dimensional data. However, few theoretical results are available that could guide to the appropriate machine learning tool in a new application. Initial development of an overall strategy thus often...... the ideas, the game is applied to data from the Nugenob Study where the aim is to predict the fat oxidation capacity based on conventional factors and high-dimensional metabolomics data. Three players have chosen to use support vector machines, LASSO, and random forests, respectively....

PredPsych: A toolbox for predictive machine learning-based approach in experimental psychology research.

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Koul, Atesh; Becchio, Cristina; Cavallo, Andrea

2017-12-12

Recent years have seen an increased interest in machine learning-based predictive methods for analyzing quantitative behavioral data in experimental psychology. While these methods can achieve relatively greater sensitivity compared to conventional univariate techniques, they still lack an established and accessible implementation. The aim of current work was to build an open-source R toolbox - "PredPsych" - that could make these methods readily available to all psychologists. PredPsych is a user-friendly, R toolbox based on machine-learning predictive algorithms. In this paper, we present the framework of PredPsych via the analysis of a recently published multiple-subject motion capture dataset. In addition, we discuss examples of possible research questions that can be addressed with the machine-learning algorithms implemented in PredPsych and cannot be easily addressed with univariate statistical analysis. We anticipate that PredPsych will be of use to researchers with limited programming experience not only in the field of psychology, but also in that of clinical neuroscience, enabling computational assessment of putative bio-behavioral markers for both prognosis and diagnosis.

Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective.

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Kang, John; Schwartz, Russell; Flickinger, John; Beriwal, Sushil

2015-12-01

Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, "spam" filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the "barrier to entry" for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods--logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)--and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction and early detection of delirium in the intensive care unit by using heart rate variability and machine learning.

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Oh, Jooyoung; Cho, Dongrae; Park, Jaesub; Na, Se Hee; Kim, Jongin; Heo, Jaeseok; Shin, Cheung Soo; Kim, Jae-Jin; Park, Jin Young; Lee, Boreom

2018-03-27

Delirium is an important syndrome found in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), however, it is usually under-recognized during treatment. This study was performed to investigate whether delirious patients can be successfully distinguished from non-delirious patients by using heart rate variability (HRV) and machine learning. Electrocardiography data of 140 patients was acquired during daily ICU care, and HRV data were analyzed. Delirium, including its type, severity, and etiologies, was evaluated daily by trained psychiatrists. HRV data and various machine learning algorithms including linear support vector machine (SVM), SVM with radial basis function (RBF) kernels, linear extreme learning machine (ELM), ELM with RBF kernels, linear discriminant analysis, and quadratic discriminant analysis were utilized to distinguish delirium patients from non-delirium patients. HRV data of 4797 ECGs were included, and 39 patients had delirium at least once during their ICU stay. The maximum classification accuracy was acquired using SVM with RBF kernels. Our prediction method based on HRV with machine learning was comparable to previous delirium prediction models using massive amounts of clinical information. Our results show that autonomic alterations could be a significant feature of patients with delirium in the ICU, suggesting the potential for the automatic prediction and early detection of delirium based on HRV with machine learning.

Application of Machine Learning for Dragline Failure Prediction

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Taghizadeh Amir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Overburden stripping in open cast coal mines is extensively carried out by walking draglines. Draglines’ unavailability and unexpected failures result in delayed productions and increased maintenance and operating costs. Therefore, achieving high availability of draglines plays a crucial role for increasing economic feasibility of mining projects. Applications of methodologies which can forecast the failure type of dragline based on the available failure data not only help to reduce the maintenance and operating costs but also increase the availability and the production rate. In this study, Machine Learning approaches have been applied for data which has been gathered from an operating coal mine in Turkey. The study methodology consists of three algorithms as: i implementation of K-Nearest Neighbors, ii implementation of Multi-Layer Perceptron, and iii implementation of Radial Basis Function. The algorithms have been utilized for predicting the draglines’ failure types. In this sense, the input data, which are mean time-to-failure, and the output data, failure types, have been fed to the algorithms. The regression analysis of methodologies have been compared and showed the K- Nearest Neighbors has a higher rate of regression which is around 70 percent. Thus, the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm can be applied in order to preventive components replacement which causes to minimized preventive and corrective cost parameters. The accurate prediction of failure type, indeed, causes to optimized number of inspections. The novelty of this study is application of machine learning approaches in draglines’ reliability subject for first time.

Application of Machine Learning to Predict Dietary Lapses During Weight Loss.

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Goldstein, Stephanie P; Zhang, Fengqing; Thomas, John G; Butryn, Meghan L; Herbert, James D; Forman, Evan M

2018-05-01

Individuals who adhere to dietary guidelines provided during weight loss interventions tend to be more successful with weight control. Any deviation from dietary guidelines can be referred to as a "lapse." There is a growing body of research showing that lapses are predictable using a variety of physiological, environmental, and psychological indicators. With recent technological advancements, it may be possible to assess these triggers and predict dietary lapses in real time. The current study sought to use machine learning techniques to predict lapses and evaluate the utility of combining both group- and individual-level data to enhance lapse prediction. The current study trained and tested a machine learning algorithm capable of predicting dietary lapses from a behavioral weight loss program among adults with overweight/obesity (n = 12). Participants were asked to follow a weight control diet for 6 weeks and complete ecological momentary assessment (EMA; repeated brief surveys delivered via smartphone) regarding dietary lapses and relevant triggers. WEKA decision trees were used to predict lapses with an accuracy of 0.72 for the group of participants. However, generalization of the group algorithm to each individual was poor, and as such, group- and individual-level data were combined to improve prediction. The findings suggest that 4 weeks of individual data collection is recommended to attain optimal model performance. The predictive algorithm could be utilized to provide in-the-moment interventions to prevent dietary lapses and therefore enhance weight losses. Furthermore, methods in the current study could be translated to other types of health behavior lapses.

In silico machine learning methods in drug development.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobchev, Dimitar A; Pillai, Girinath G; Karelson, Mati

2014-01-01

Machine learning (ML) computational methods for predicting compounds with pharmacological activity, specific pharmacodynamic and ADMET (absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity) properties are being increasingly applied in drug discovery and evaluation. Recently, machine learning techniques such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines and genetic programming have been explored for predicting inhibitors, antagonists, blockers, agonists, activators and substrates of proteins related to specific therapeutic targets. These methods are particularly useful for screening compound libraries of diverse chemical structures, "noisy" and high-dimensional data to complement QSAR methods, and in cases of unavailable receptor 3D structure to complement structure-based methods. A variety of studies have demonstrated the potential of machine-learning methods for predicting compounds as potential drug candidates. The present review is intended to give an overview of the strategies and current progress in using machine learning methods for drug design and the potential of the respective model development tools. We also regard a number of applications of the machine learning algorithms based on common classes of diseases.

Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

2016-08-01

The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

Pol II promoter prediction using characteristic 4-mer motifs: a machine learning approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoyaib Mohammad

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Eukaryotic promoter prediction using computational analysis techniques is one of the most difficult jobs in computational genomics that is essential for constructing and understanding genetic regulatory networks. The increased availability of sequence data for various eukaryotic organisms in recent years has necessitated for better tools and techniques for the prediction and analysis of promoters in eukaryotic sequences. Many promoter prediction methods and tools have been developed to date but they have yet to provide acceptable predictive performance. One obvious criteria to improve on current methods is to devise a better system for selecting appropriate features of promoters that distinguish them from non-promoters. Secondly improved performance can be achieved by enhancing the predictive ability of the machine learning algorithms used. Results In this paper, a novel approach is presented in which 128 4-mer motifs in conjunction with a non-linear machine-learning algorithm utilising a Support Vector Machine (SVM are used to distinguish between promoter and non-promoter DNA sequences. By applying this approach to plant, Drosophila, human, mouse and rat sequences, the classification model has showed 7-fold cross-validation percentage accuracies of 83.81%, 94.82%, 91.25%, 90.77% and 82.35% respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity value of 0.86 and 0.90 for plant; 0.96 and 0.92 for Drosophila; 0.88 and 0.92 for human; 0.78 and 0.84 for mouse and 0.82 and 0.80 for rat demonstrate that this technique is less prone to false positive results and exhibits better performance than many other tools. Moreover, this model successfully identifies location of promoter using TATA weight matrix. Conclusion The high sensitivity and specificity indicate that 4-mer frequencies in conjunction with supervised machine-learning methods can be beneficial in the identification of RNA pol II promoters comparative to other methods. This

Machine Learning for Medical Imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Bradley J; Korfiatis, Panagiotis; Akkus, Zeynettin; Kline, Timothy L

2017-01-01

Machine learning is a technique for recognizing patterns that can be applied to medical images. Although it is a powerful tool that can help in rendering medical diagnoses, it can be misapplied. Machine learning typically begins with the machine learning algorithm system computing the image features that are believed to be of importance in making the prediction or diagnosis of interest. The machine learning algorithm system then identifies the best combination of these image features for classifying the image or computing some metric for the given image region. There are several methods that can be used, each with different strengths and weaknesses. There are open-source versions of most of these machine learning methods that make them easy to try and apply to images. Several metrics for measuring the performance of an algorithm exist; however, one must be aware of the possible associated pitfalls that can result in misleading metrics. More recently, deep learning has started to be used; this method has the benefit that it does not require image feature identification and calculation as a first step; rather, features are identified as part of the learning process. Machine learning has been used in medical imaging and will have a greater influence in the future. Those working in medical imaging must be aware of how machine learning works. © RSNA, 2017.

Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models to Predict Runoff Water Quantity and Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Bradford, S. A.; Liang, J.; Li, W.; Murata, T.; Simunek, J.

2017-12-01

Contaminants can be rapidly transported at the soil surface by runoff to surface water bodies. Physically-based models, which are based on the mathematical description of main hydrological processes, are key tools for predicting surface water impairment. Along with physically-based models, data-driven models are becoming increasingly popular for describing the behavior of hydrological and water resources systems since these models can be used to complement or even replace physically based-models. In this presentation we propose a new data-driven model as an alternative to a physically-based overland flow and transport model. First, we have developed a physically-based numerical model to simulate overland flow and contaminant transport (the HYDRUS-1D overland flow module). A large number of numerical simulations were carried out to develop a database containing information about the impact of various input parameters (weather patterns, surface topography, vegetation, soil conditions, contaminants, and best management practices) on runoff water quantity and quality outputs. This database was used to train data-driven models. Three different methods (Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Recurrence Neural Networks) were explored to prepare input- output functional relations. Results demonstrate the ability and limitations of machine learning and deep learning models to predict runoff water quantity and quality.

Predicting Smoking Status Using Machine Learning Algorithms and Statistical Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Frank

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Smoking has been proven to negatively affect health in a multitude of ways. As of 2009, smoking has been considered the leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States, continuing to plague the country’s overall health. This study aims to investigate the viability and effectiveness of some machine learning algorithms for predicting the smoking status of patients based on their blood tests and vital readings results. The analysis of this study is divided into two parts: In part 1, we use One-way ANOVA analysis with SAS tool to show the statistically significant difference in blood test readings between smokers and non-smokers. The results show that the difference in INR, which measures the effectiveness of anticoagulants, was significant in favor of non-smokers which further confirms the health risks associated with smoking. In part 2, we use five machine learning algorithms: Naïve Bayes, MLP, Logistic regression classifier, J48 and Decision Table to predict the smoking status of patients. To compare the effectiveness of these algorithms we use: Precision, Recall, F-measure and Accuracy measures. The results show that the Logistic algorithm outperformed the four other algorithms with Precision, Recall, F-Measure, and Accuracy of 83%, 83.4%, 83.2%, 83.44%, respectively.

Machine-learning scoring functions to improve structure-based binding affinity prediction and virtual screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Ain, Qurrat Ul; Aleksandrova, Antoniya; Roessler, Florian D; Ballester, Pedro J

2015-01-01

Docking tools to predict whether and how a small molecule binds to a target can be applied if a structural model of such target is available. The reliability of docking depends, however, on the accuracy of the adopted scoring function (SF). Despite intense research over the years, improving the accuracy of SFs for structure-based binding affinity prediction or virtual screening has proven to be a challenging task for any class of method. New SFs based on modern machine-learning regression models, which do not impose a predetermined functional form and thus are able to exploit effectively much larger amounts of experimental data, have recently been introduced. These machine-learning SFs have been shown to outperform a wide range of classical SFs at both binding affinity prediction and virtual screening. The emerging picture from these studies is that the classical approach of using linear regression with a small number of expert-selected structural features can be strongly improved by a machine-learning approach based on nonlinear regression allied with comprehensive data-driven feature selection. Furthermore, the performance of classical SFs does not grow with larger training datasets and hence this performance gap is expected to widen as more training data becomes available in the future. Other topics covered in this review include predicting the reliability of a SF on a particular target class, generating synthetic data to improve predictive performance and modeling guidelines for SF development. WIREs Comput Mol Sci 2015, 5:405-424. doi: 10.1002/wcms.1225 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

Extremely Randomized Machine Learning Methods for Compound Activity Prediction

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Wojciech M. Czarnecki

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Speed, a relatively low requirement for computational resources and high effectiveness of the evaluation of the bioactivity of compounds have caused a rapid growth of interest in the application of machine learning methods to virtual screening tasks. However, due to the growth of the amount of data also in cheminformatics and related fields, the aim of research has shifted not only towards the development of algorithms of high predictive power but also towards the simplification of previously existing methods to obtain results more quickly. In the study, we tested two approaches belonging to the group of so-called ‘extremely randomized methods’—Extreme Entropy Machine and Extremely Randomized Trees—for their ability to properly identify compounds that have activity towards particular protein targets. These methods were compared with their ‘non-extreme’ competitors, i.e., Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The extreme approaches were not only found out to improve the efficiency of the classification of bioactive compounds, but they were also proved to be less computationally complex, requiring fewer steps to perform an optimization procedure.

Genome-wide prediction of discrete traits using bayesian regressions and machine learning

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Forni Selma

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic selection has gained much attention and the main goal is to increase the predictive accuracy and the genetic gain in livestock using dense marker information. Most methods dealing with the large p (number of covariates small n (number of observations problem have dealt only with continuous traits, but there are many important traits in livestock that are recorded in a discrete fashion (e.g. pregnancy outcome, disease resistance. It is necessary to evaluate alternatives to analyze discrete traits in a genome-wide prediction context. Methods This study shows two threshold versions of Bayesian regressions (Bayes A and Bayesian LASSO and two machine learning algorithms (boosting and random forest to analyze discrete traits in a genome-wide prediction context. These methods were evaluated using simulated and field data to predict yet-to-be observed records. Performances were compared based on the models' predictive ability. Results The simulation showed that machine learning had some advantages over Bayesian regressions when a small number of QTL regulated the trait under pure additivity. However, differences were small and disappeared with a large number of QTL. Bayesian threshold LASSO and boosting achieved the highest accuracies, whereas Random Forest presented the highest classification performance. Random Forest was the most consistent method in detecting resistant and susceptible animals, phi correlation was up to 81% greater than Bayesian regressions. Random Forest outperformed other methods in correctly classifying resistant and susceptible animals in the two pure swine lines evaluated. Boosting and Bayes A were more accurate with crossbred data. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that the best method for genome-wide prediction may depend on the genetic basis of the population analyzed. All methods were less accurate at correctly classifying intermediate animals than extreme animals. Among the different

Phishtest: Measuring the Impact of Email Headers on the Predictive Accuracy of Machine Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Tout, Hicham

2013-01-01

The majority of documented phishing attacks have been carried by email, yet few studies have measured the impact of email headers on the predictive accuracy of machine learning techniques in detecting email phishing attacks. Research has shown that the inclusion of a limited subset of email headers as features in training machine learning…

Predicting Increased Blood Pressure Using Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Golino, Hudson Fernandes; Amaral, Liliany Souza de Brito; Duarte, Stenio Fernando Pimentel; Soares, Telma de Jesus; dos Reis, Luciana Araujo

2014-01-01

The present study investigates the prediction of increased blood pressure by body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip circumference (HC), and waist hip ratio (WHR) using a machine learning technique named classification tree. Data were collected from 400 college students (56.3% women) from 16 to 63 years old. Fifteen trees were calculated in the training group for each sex, using different numbers and combinations of predictors. The result shows that for women BMI, WC, and WHR are the combination that produces the best prediction, since it has the lowest deviance (87.42), misclassification (.19), and the higher pseudo R 2 (.43). This model presented a sensitivity of 80.86% and specificity of 81.22% in the training set and, respectively, 45.65% and 65.15% in the test sample. For men BMI, WC, HC, and WHC showed the best prediction with the lowest deviance (57.25), misclassification (.16), and the higher pseudo R 2 (.46). This model had a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 86.25% in the training set and, respectively, 58.38% and 69.70% in the test set. Finally, the result from the classification tree analysis was compared with traditional logistic regression, indicating that the former outperformed the latter in terms of predictive power. PMID:24669313

Predicting Increased Blood Pressure Using Machine Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hudson Fernandes Golino

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The present study investigates the prediction of increased blood pressure by body mass index (BMI, waist (WC and hip circumference (HC, and waist hip ratio (WHR using a machine learning technique named classification tree. Data were collected from 400 college students (56.3% women from 16 to 63 years old. Fifteen trees were calculated in the training group for each sex, using different numbers and combinations of predictors. The result shows that for women BMI, WC, and WHR are the combination that produces the best prediction, since it has the lowest deviance (87.42, misclassification (.19, and the higher pseudo R2 (.43. This model presented a sensitivity of 80.86% and specificity of 81.22% in the training set and, respectively, 45.65% and 65.15% in the test sample. For men BMI, WC, HC, and WHC showed the best prediction with the lowest deviance (57.25, misclassification (.16, and the higher pseudo R2 (.46. This model had a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 86.25% in the training set and, respectively, 58.38% and 69.70% in the test set. Finally, the result from the classification tree analysis was compared with traditional logistic regression, indicating that the former outperformed the latter in terms of predictive power.

Predicting increased blood pressure using machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Golino, Hudson Fernandes; Amaral, Liliany Souza de Brito; Duarte, Stenio Fernando Pimentel; Gomes, Cristiano Mauro Assis; Soares, Telma de Jesus; Dos Reis, Luciana Araujo; Santos, Joselito

2014-01-01

The present study investigates the prediction of increased blood pressure by body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip circumference (HC), and waist hip ratio (WHR) using a machine learning technique named classification tree. Data were collected from 400 college students (56.3% women) from 16 to 63 years old. Fifteen trees were calculated in the training group for each sex, using different numbers and combinations of predictors. The result shows that for women BMI, WC, and WHR are the combination that produces the best prediction, since it has the lowest deviance (87.42), misclassification (.19), and the higher pseudo R (2) (.43). This model presented a sensitivity of 80.86% and specificity of 81.22% in the training set and, respectively, 45.65% and 65.15% in the test sample. For men BMI, WC, HC, and WHC showed the best prediction with the lowest deviance (57.25), misclassification (.16), and the higher pseudo R (2) (.46). This model had a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 86.25% in the training set and, respectively, 58.38% and 69.70% in the test set. Finally, the result from the classification tree analysis was compared with traditional logistic regression, indicating that the former outperformed the latter in terms of predictive power.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-28

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-01

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Machine learning applied to crime prediction

OpenAIRE

Vaquero Barnadas, Miquel

2016-01-01

Machine Learning is a cornerstone when it comes to artificial intelligence and big data analysis. It provides powerful algorithms that are capable of recognizing patterns, classifying data, and, basically, learn by themselves to perform a specific task. This field has incredibly grown in popularity these days, however, it still remains unknown for the majority of people, and even for most professionals. This project intends to provide an understandable explanation of what is it, what types ar...

Machine learning approaches for the prediction of signal peptides and otherprotein sorting signals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik; Brunak, Søren; von Heijne, Gunnar

1999-01-01

Prediction of protein sorting signals from the sequence of amino acids has great importance in the field of proteomics today. Recently,the growth of protein databases, combined with machine learning approaches, such as neural networks and hidden Markov models, havemade it possible to achieve...

Machine learning to predict the occurrence of bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw associated with dental extraction: A preliminary report.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Dong Wook; Kim, Hwiyoung; Nam, Woong; Kim, Hyung Jun; Cha, In-Ho

2018-04-23

The aim of this study was to build and validate five types of machine learning models that can predict the occurrence of BRONJ associated with dental extraction in patients taking bisphosphonates for the management of osteoporosis. A retrospective review of the medical records was conducted to obtain cases and controls for the study. Total 125 patients consisting of 41 cases and 84 controls were selected for the study. Five machine learning prediction algorithms including multivariable logistic regression model, decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and random forest were implemented. The outputs of these models were compared with each other and also with conventional methods, such as serum CTX level. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare the results. The performance of machine learning models was significantly superior to conventional statistical methods and single predictors. The random forest model yielded the best performance (AUC = 0.973), followed by artificial neural network (AUC = 0.915), support vector machine (AUC = 0.882), logistic regression (AUC = 0.844), decision tree (AUC = 0.821), drug holiday alone (AUC = 0.810), and CTX level alone (AUC = 0.630). Machine learning methods showed superior performance in predicting BRONJ associated with dental extraction compared to conventional statistical methods using drug holiday and serum CTX level. Machine learning can thus be applied in a wide range of clinical studies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Machine learning: novel bioinformatics approaches for combating antimicrobial resistance.

Science.gov (United States)

Macesic, Nenad; Polubriaginof, Fernanda; Tatonetti, Nicholas P

2017-12-01

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a threat to global health and new approaches to combating AMR are needed. Use of machine learning in addressing AMR is in its infancy but has made promising steps. We reviewed the current literature on the use of machine learning for studying bacterial AMR. The advent of large-scale data sets provided by next-generation sequencing and electronic health records make applying machine learning to the study and treatment of AMR possible. To date, it has been used for antimicrobial susceptibility genotype/phenotype prediction, development of AMR clinical decision rules, novel antimicrobial agent discovery and antimicrobial therapy optimization. Application of machine learning to studying AMR is feasible but remains limited. Implementation of machine learning in clinical settings faces barriers to uptake with concerns regarding model interpretability and data quality.Future applications of machine learning to AMR are likely to be laboratory-based, such as antimicrobial susceptibility phenotype prediction.

BENCHMARKING MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES FOR SOFTWARE DEFECT DETECTION

OpenAIRE

Saiqa Aleem; Luiz Fernando Capretz; Faheem Ahmed

2015-01-01

Machine Learning approaches are good in solving problems that have less information. In most cases, the software domain problems characterize as a process of learning that depend on the various circumstances and changes accordingly. A predictive model is constructed by using machine learning approaches and classified them into defective and non-defective modules. Machine learning techniques help developers to retrieve useful information after the classification and enable them to analyse data...

Machine learning competition in immunology – Prediction of HLA class I binding peptides

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Guang Lan; Ansari, Hifzur Rahman; Bradley, Phil

2011-01-01

of peptide binding, therefore, determines the accuracy of the overall method. Computational predictions of peptide binding to HLA, both class I and class II, use a variety of algorithms ranging from binding motifs to advanced machine learning techniques ( [Brusic et al., 2004] and [Lafuente and Reche, 2009...

Prediction of Human Drug Targets and Their Interactions Using Machine Learning Methods: Current and Future Perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Nath, Abhigyan; Kumari, Priyanka; Chaube, Radha

2018-01-01

Identification of drug targets and drug target interactions are important steps in the drug-discovery pipeline. Successful computational prediction methods can reduce the cost and time demanded by the experimental methods. Knowledge of putative drug targets and their interactions can be very useful for drug repurposing. Supervised machine learning methods have been very useful in drug target prediction and in prediction of drug target interactions. Here, we describe the details for developing prediction models using supervised learning techniques for human drug target prediction and their interactions.

A Symbiotic Framework for coupling Machine Learning and Geosciences in Prediction and Predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Ravela, S.

2017-12-01

In this presentation we review the two directions of a symbiotic relationship between machine learning and the geosciences in relation to prediction and predictability. In the first direction, we develop ensemble, information theoretic and manifold learning framework to adaptively improve state and parameter estimates in nonlinear high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, showing in particular that tractable variational approaches can be produced. We demonstrate these applications in the context of autonomous mapping of environmental coherent structures and other idealized problems. In the reverse direction, we show that data assimilation, particularly probabilistic approaches for filtering and smoothing offer a novel and useful way to train neural networks, and serve as a better basis than gradient based approaches when we must quantify uncertainty in association with nonlinear, chaotic processes. In many inference problems in geosciences we seek to build reduced models to characterize local sensitivies, adjoints or other mechanisms that propagate innovations and errors. Here, the particular use of neural approaches for such propagation trained using ensemble data assimilation provides a novel framework. Through these two examples of inference problems in the earth sciences, we show that not only is learning useful to broaden existing methodology, but in reverse, geophysical methodology can be used to influence paradigms in learning.

Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, John [Medical Scientist Training Program, University of Pittsburgh-Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Schwartz, Russell [Department of Biological Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Flickinger, John [Departments of Radiation Oncology and Neurological Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Beriwal, Sushil, E-mail: beriwals@upmc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States)

2015-12-01

Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, “spam” filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the “barrier to entry” for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods—logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation.

An Approach for Predicting Essential Genes Using Multiple Homology Mapping and Machine Learning Algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, Hong-Li; Zhang, Fa-Zhan; Labena, Abraham Alemayehu; Dong, Chuan; Jin, Yan-Ting; Guo, Feng-Biao

Investigation of essential genes is significant to comprehend the minimal gene sets of cell and discover potential drug targets. In this study, a novel approach based on multiple homology mapping and machine learning method was introduced to predict essential genes. We focused on 25 bacteria which have characterized essential genes. The predictions yielded the highest area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.9716 through tenfold cross-validation test. Proper features were utilized to construct models to make predictions in distantly related bacteria. The accuracy of predictions was evaluated via the consistency of predictions and known essential genes of target species. The highest AUC of 0.9552 and average AUC of 0.8314 were achieved when making predictions across organisms. An independent dataset from Synechococcus elongatus , which was released recently, was obtained for further assessment of the performance of our model. The AUC score of predictions is 0.7855, which is higher than other methods. This research presents that features obtained by homology mapping uniquely can achieve quite great or even better results than those integrated features. Meanwhile, the work indicates that machine learning-based method can assign more efficient weight coefficients than using empirical formula based on biological knowledge.

Using Machine Learning to Advance Personality Assessment and Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleidorn, Wiebke; Hopwood, Christopher James

2018-05-01

Machine learning has led to important advances in society. One of the most exciting applications of machine learning in psychological science has been the development of assessment tools that can powerfully predict human behavior and personality traits. Thus far, machine learning approaches to personality assessment have focused on the associations between social media and other digital records with established personality measures. The goal of this article is to expand the potential of machine learning approaches to personality assessment by embedding it in a more comprehensive construct validation framework. We review recent applications of machine learning to personality assessment, place machine learning research in the broader context of fundamental principles of construct validation, and provide recommendations for how to use machine learning to advance our understanding of personality.

Book review: A first course in Machine Learning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ortiz-Arroyo, Daniel

2016-01-01

"The new edition of A First Course in Machine Learning by Rogers and Girolami is an excellent introduction to the use of statistical methods in machine learning. The book introduces concepts such as mathematical modeling, inference, and prediction, providing ‘just in time’ the essential background...... to change models and parameter values to make [it] easier to understand and apply these models in real applications. The authors [also] introduce more advanced, state-of-the-art machine learning methods, such as Gaussian process models and advanced mixture models, which are used across machine learning....... This makes the book interesting not only to students with little or no background in machine learning but also to more advanced graduate students interested in statistical approaches to machine learning." —Daniel Ortiz-Arroyo, Associate Professor, Aalborg University Esbjerg, Denmark...

Prediction of lung cancer patient survival via supervised machine learning classification techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, Chip M; Abdollahi, Behnaz; Fuqua, Joshua D; de Carlo, Alexandra R; Bartholomai, James A; Balgemann, Rayeanne N; van Berkel, Victor H; Frieboes, Hermann B

2017-12-01

Outcomes for cancer patients have been previously estimated by applying various machine learning techniques to large datasets such as the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. In particular for lung cancer, it is not well understood which types of techniques would yield more predictive information, and which data attributes should be used in order to determine this information. In this study, a number of supervised learning techniques is applied to the SEER database to classify lung cancer patients in terms of survival, including linear regression, Decision Trees, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and a custom ensemble. Key data attributes in applying these methods include tumor grade, tumor size, gender, age, stage, and number of primaries, with the goal to enable comparison of predictive power between the various methods The prediction is treated like a continuous target, rather than a classification into categories, as a first step towards improving survival prediction. The results show that the predicted values agree with actual values for low to moderate survival times, which constitute the majority of the data. The best performing technique was the custom ensemble with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 15.05. The most influential model within the custom ensemble was GBM, while Decision Trees may be inapplicable as it had too few discrete outputs. The results further show that among the five individual models generated, the most accurate was GBM with an RMSE value of 15.32. Although SVM underperformed with an RMSE value of 15.82, statistical analysis singles the SVM as the only model that generated a distinctive output. The results of the models are consistent with a classical Cox proportional hazards model used as a reference technique. We conclude that application of these supervised learning techniques to lung cancer data in the SEER database may be of use to estimate patient survival time

Predicting the stability of ternary intermetallics with density functional theory and machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Jonathan; Chen, Liming; Botti, Silvana; Marques, Miguel A. L.

2018-06-01

We use a combination of machine learning techniques and high-throughput density-functional theory calculations to explore ternary compounds with the AB2C2 composition. We chose the two most common intermetallic prototypes for this composition, namely, the tI10-CeAl2Ga2 and the tP10-FeMo2B2 structures. Our results suggest that there may be ˜10 times more stable compounds in these phases than previously known. These are mostly metallic and non-magnetic. While the use of machine learning reduces the overall calculation cost by around 75%, some limitations of its predictive power still exist, in particular, for compounds involving the second-row of the periodic table or magnetic elements.

Use of a Machine-learning Method for Predicting Highly Cited Articles Within General Radiology Journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Doshi, Ankur M; Ginocchio, Luke A; Aphinyanaphongs, Yindalon

2016-12-01

This study aimed to assess the performance of a text classification machine-learning model in predicting highly cited articles within the recent radiological literature and to identify the model's most influential article features. We downloaded from PubMed the title, abstract, and medical subject heading terms for 10,065 articles published in 25 general radiology journals in 2012 and 2013. Three machine-learning models were applied to predict the top 10% of included articles in terms of the number of citations to the article in 2014 (reflecting the 2-year time window in conventional impact factor calculations). The model having the highest area under the curve was selected to derive a list of article features (words) predicting high citation volume, which was iteratively reduced to identify the smallest possible core feature list maintaining predictive power. Overall themes were qualitatively assigned to the core features. The regularized logistic regression (Bayesian binary regression) model had highest performance, achieving an area under the curve of 0.814 in predicting articles in the top 10% of citation volume. We reduced the initial 14,083 features to 210 features that maintain predictivity. These features corresponded with topics relating to various imaging techniques (eg, diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, hyperpolarized magnetic resonance imaging, dual-energy computed tomography, computed tomography reconstruction algorithms, tomosynthesis, elastography, and computer-aided diagnosis), particular pathologies (prostate cancer; thyroid nodules; hepatic adenoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease), and other topics (radiation dose, electroporation, education, general oncology, gadolinium, statistics). Machine learning can be successfully applied to create specific feature-based models for predicting articles likely to achieve high influence within the radiological literature. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University

Prediction of Student Dropout in E-Learning Program Through the Use of Machine Learning Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingjie Tan

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The high rate of dropout is a serious problem in E-learning program. Thus it has received extensive concern from the education administrators and researchers. Predicting the potential dropout students is a workable solution to prevent dropout. Based on the analysis of related literature, this study selected student’s personal characteristic and academic performance as input attributions. Prediction models were developed using Artificial Neural Network (ANN, Decision Tree (DT and Bayesian Networks (BNs. A large sample of 62375 students was utilized in the procedures of model training and testing. The results of each model were presented in confusion matrix, and analyzed by calculating the rates of accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure. The results suggested all of the three machine learning methods were effective in student dropout prediction, and DT presented a better performance. Finally, some suggestions were made for considerable future research.

Machine Learning and Neurosurgical Outcome Prediction: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Senders, Joeky T; Staples, Patrick C; Karhade, Aditya V; Zaki, Mark M; Gormley, William B; Broekman, Marike L D; Smith, Timothy R; Arnaout, Omar

2018-01-01

Accurate measurement of surgical outcomes is highly desirable to optimize surgical decision-making. An important element of surgical decision making is identification of the patient cohort that will benefit from surgery before the intervention. Machine learning (ML) enables computers to learn from previous data to make accurate predictions on new data. In this systematic review, we evaluate the potential of ML for neurosurgical outcome prediction. A systematic search in the PubMed and Embase databases was performed to identify all potential relevant studies up to January 1, 2017. Thirty studies were identified that evaluated ML algorithms used as prediction models for survival, recurrence, symptom improvement, and adverse events in patients undergoing surgery for epilepsy, brain tumor, spinal lesions, neurovascular disease, movement disorders, traumatic brain injury, and hydrocephalus. Depending on the specific prediction task evaluated and the type of input features included, ML models predicted outcomes after neurosurgery with a median accuracy and area under the receiver operating curve of 94.5% and 0.83, respectively. Compared with logistic regression, ML models performed significantly better and showed a median absolute improvement in accuracy and area under the receiver operating curve of 15% and 0.06, respectively. Some studies also demonstrated a better performance in ML models compared with established prognostic indices and clinical experts. In the research setting, ML has been studied extensively, demonstrating an excellent performance in outcome prediction for a wide range of neurosurgical conditions. However, future studies should investigate how ML can be implemented as a practical tool supporting neurosurgical care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Machine-Learning Approach to Predict Main Energy Consumption under Realistic Operational Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Joan P; Winther, Ole; Jacobsen, Daniel J

2012-01-01

The paper presents a novel and publicly available set of high-quality sensory data collected from a ferry over a period of two months and overviews exixting machine-learning methods for the prediction of main propulsion efficiency. Neural networks are applied on both real-time and predictive...... settings. Performance results for the real-time models are shown. The presented models were successfully developed in a trim optimisation application onboard a product tanker....

Machine learning methods for metabolic pathway prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karp Peter D

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge in systems biology is the reconstruction of an organism's metabolic network from its genome sequence. One strategy for addressing this problem is to predict which metabolic pathways, from a reference database of known pathways, are present in the organism, based on the annotated genome of the organism. Results To quantitatively validate methods for pathway prediction, we developed a large "gold standard" dataset of 5,610 pathway instances known to be present or absent in curated metabolic pathway databases for six organisms. We defined a collection of 123 pathway features, whose information content we evaluated with respect to the gold standard. Feature data were used as input to an extensive collection of machine learning (ML methods, including naïve Bayes, decision trees, and logistic regression, together with feature selection and ensemble methods. We compared the ML methods to the previous PathoLogic algorithm for pathway prediction using the gold standard dataset. We found that ML-based prediction methods can match the performance of the PathoLogic algorithm. PathoLogic achieved an accuracy of 91% and an F-measure of 0.786. The ML-based prediction methods achieved accuracy as high as 91.2% and F-measure as high as 0.787. The ML-based methods output a probability for each predicted pathway, whereas PathoLogic does not, which provides more information to the user and facilitates filtering of predicted pathways. Conclusions ML methods for pathway prediction perform as well as existing methods, and have qualitative advantages in terms of extensibility, tunability, and explainability. More advanced prediction methods and/or more sophisticated input features may improve the performance of ML methods. However, pathway prediction performance appears to be limited largely by the ability to correctly match enzymes to the reactions they catalyze based on genome annotations.

Machine learning methods for metabolic pathway prediction

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Background A key challenge in systems biology is the reconstruction of an organism's metabolic network from its genome sequence. One strategy for addressing this problem is to predict which metabolic pathways, from a reference database of known pathways, are present in the organism, based on the annotated genome of the organism. Results To quantitatively validate methods for pathway prediction, we developed a large "gold standard" dataset of 5,610 pathway instances known to be present or absent in curated metabolic pathway databases for six organisms. We defined a collection of 123 pathway features, whose information content we evaluated with respect to the gold standard. Feature data were used as input to an extensive collection of machine learning (ML) methods, including naïve Bayes, decision trees, and logistic regression, together with feature selection and ensemble methods. We compared the ML methods to the previous PathoLogic algorithm for pathway prediction using the gold standard dataset. We found that ML-based prediction methods can match the performance of the PathoLogic algorithm. PathoLogic achieved an accuracy of 91% and an F-measure of 0.786. The ML-based prediction methods achieved accuracy as high as 91.2% and F-measure as high as 0.787. The ML-based methods output a probability for each predicted pathway, whereas PathoLogic does not, which provides more information to the user and facilitates filtering of predicted pathways. Conclusions ML methods for pathway prediction perform as well as existing methods, and have qualitative advantages in terms of extensibility, tunability, and explainability. More advanced prediction methods and/or more sophisticated input features may improve the performance of ML methods. However, pathway prediction performance appears to be limited largely by the ability to correctly match enzymes to the reactions they catalyze based on genome annotations. PMID:20064214

Comparative Performance Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Software Bug Detection

OpenAIRE

Saiqa Aleem; Luiz Fernando Capretz; Faheem Ahmed

2015-01-01

Machine learning techniques can be used to analyse data from different perspectives and enable developers to retrieve useful information. Machine learning techniques are proven to be useful in terms of software bug prediction. In this paper, a comparative performance analysis of different machine learning techniques is explored f or software bug prediction on public available data sets. Results showed most of the mac ...

MU-LOC: A Machine-Learning Method for Predicting Mitochondrially Localized Proteins in Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Ning; Rao, R Shyama Prasad; Salvato, Fernanda

2018-01-01

-sequence or a multitude of internal signals. Compared with experimental approaches, computational predictions provide an efficient way to infer subcellular localization of a protein. However, it is still challenging to predict plant mitochondrially localized proteins accurately due to various limitations. Consequently......, the performance of current tools can be improved with new data and new machine-learning methods. We present MU-LOC, a novel computational approach for large-scale prediction of plant mitochondrial proteins. We collected a comprehensive dataset of plant subcellular localization, extracted features including amino...

Prediction of breast cancer risk using a machine learning approach embedded with a locality preserving projection algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qiu, Yuchen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-02-01

In order to automatically identify a set of effective mammographic image features and build an optimal breast cancer risk stratification model, this study aims to investigate advantages of applying a machine learning approach embedded with a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature combination and regeneration algorithm to predict short-term breast cancer risk. A dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was assembled. This dataset was divided into two age-matched classes of 250 high risk cases in which cancer was detected in the next subsequent mammography screening and 250 low risk cases, which remained negative. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was applied to segment fibro-glandular tissue depicted on mammograms and initially compute 44 features related to the bilateral asymmetry of mammographic tissue density distribution between left and right breasts. Next, a multi-feature fusion based machine learning classifier was built to predict the risk of cancer detection in the next mammography screening. A leave-one-case-out (LOCO) cross-validation method was applied to train and test the machine learning classifier embedded with a LLP algorithm, which generated a new operational vector with 4 features using a maximal variance approach in each LOCO process. Results showed a 9.7% increase in risk prediction accuracy when using this LPP-embedded machine learning approach. An increased trend of adjusted odds ratios was also detected in which odds ratios increased from 1.0 to 11.2. This study demonstrated that applying the LPP algorithm effectively reduced feature dimensionality, and yielded higher and potentially more robust performance in predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abut F

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Fatih Abut, Mehmet Fatih AkayDepartment of Computer Engineering, Çukurova University, Adana, TurkeyAbstract: Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance

HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2018-02-01

Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior).

Machine-Learning-Based No Show Prediction in Outpatient Visits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Elvira

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A recurring problem in healthcare is the high percentage of patients who miss their appointment, be it a consultation or a hospital test. The present study seeks patient’s behavioural patterns that allow predicting the probability of no- shows. We explore the convenience of using Big Data Machine Learning models to accomplish this task. To begin with, a predictive model based only on variables associated with the target appointment is built. Then the model is improved by considering the patient’s history of appointments. In both cases, the Gradient Boosting algorithm was the predictor of choice. Our numerical results are considered promising given the small amount of information available. However, there seems to be plenty of room to improve the model if we manage to collect additional data for both patients and appointments.

Modelling tick abundance using machine learning techniques and satellite imagery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjær, Lene Jung; Korslund, L.; Kjelland, V.

satellite images to run Boosted Regression Tree machine learning algorithms to predict overall distribution (presence/absence of ticks) and relative tick abundance of nymphs and larvae in southern Scandinavia. For nymphs, the predicted abundance had a positive correlation with observed abundance...... the predicted distribution of larvae was mostly even throughout Denmark, it was primarily around the coastlines in Norway and Sweden. Abundance was fairly low overall except in some fragmented patches corresponding to forested habitats in the region. Machine learning techniques allow us to predict for larger...... the collected ticks for pathogens and using the same machine learning techniques to develop prevalence maps of the ScandTick region....

Exploration of machine learning techniques in predicting multiple sclerosis disease course.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yijun Zhao

Full Text Available To explore the value of machine learning methods for predicting multiple sclerosis disease course.1693 CLIMB study patients were classified as increased EDSS≥1.5 (worsening or not (non-worsening at up to five years after baseline visit. Support vector machines (SVM were used to build the classifier, and compared to logistic regression (LR using demographic, clinical and MRI data obtained at years one and two to predict EDSS at five years follow-up.Baseline data alone provided little predictive value. Clinical observation for one year improved overall SVM sensitivity to 62% and specificity to 65% in predicting worsening cases. The addition of one year MRI data improved sensitivity to 71% and specificity to 68%. Use of non-uniform misclassification costs in the SVM model, weighting towards increased sensitivity, improved predictions (up to 86%. Sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy improved minimally with additional follow-up data. Predictions improved within specific groups defined by baseline EDSS. LR performed more poorly than SVM in most cases. Race, family history of MS, and brain parenchymal fraction, ranked highly as predictors of the non-worsening group. Brain T2 lesion volume ranked highly as predictive of the worsening group.SVM incorporating short-term clinical and brain MRI data, class imbalance corrective measures, and classification costs may be a promising means to predict MS disease course, and for selection of patients suitable for more aggressive treatment regimens.

Machine Learning Phases of Strongly Correlated Fermions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelvin Ch’ng

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Machine learning offers an unprecedented perspective for the problem of classifying phases in condensed matter physics. We employ neural-network machine learning techniques to distinguish finite-temperature phases of the strongly correlated fermions on cubic lattices. We show that a three-dimensional convolutional network trained on auxiliary field configurations produced by quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the Hubbard model can correctly predict the magnetic phase diagram of the model at the average density of one (half filling. We then use the network, trained at half filling, to explore the trend in the transition temperature as the system is doped away from half filling. This transfer learning approach predicts that the instability to the magnetic phase extends to at least 5% doping in this region. Our results pave the way for other machine learning applications in correlated quantum many-body systems.

SU-E-J-191: Motion Prediction Using Extreme Learning Machine in Image Guided Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia, J; Cao, R; Pei, X; Wang, H; Hu, L

2015-01-01

Purpose: Real-time motion tracking is a critical issue in image guided radiotherapy due to the time latency caused by image processing and system response. It is of great necessity to fast and accurately predict the future position of the respiratory motion and the tumor location. Methods: The prediction of respiratory position was done based on the positioning and tracking module in ARTS-IGRT system which was developed by FDS Team (www.fds.org.cn). An approach involving with the extreme learning machine (ELM) was adopted to predict the future respiratory position as well as the tumor’s location by training the past trajectories. For the training process, a feed-forward neural network with one single hidden layer was used for the learning. First, the number of hidden nodes was figured out for the single layered feed forward network (SLFN). Then the input weights and hidden layer biases of the SLFN were randomly assigned to calculate the hidden neuron output matrix. Finally, the predicted movement were obtained by applying the output weights and compared with the actual movement. Breathing movement acquired from the external infrared markers was used to test the prediction accuracy. And the implanted marker movement for the prostate cancer was used to test the implementation of the tumor motion prediction. Results: The accuracy of the predicted motion and the actual motion was tested. Five volunteers with different breathing patterns were tested. The average prediction time was 0.281s. And the standard deviation of prediction accuracy was 0.002 for the respiratory motion and 0.001 for the tumor motion. Conclusion: The extreme learning machine method can provide an accurate and fast prediction of the respiratory motion and the tumor location and therefore can meet the requirements of real-time tumor-tracking in image guided radiotherapy

SU-E-J-191: Motion Prediction Using Extreme Learning Machine in Image Guided Radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jia, J; Cao, R; Pei, X; Wang, H; Hu, L [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China); Engineering Technology Research Center of Accurate Radiotherapy of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031 (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Radiation Medicine of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, SuZhou (China)

2015-06-15

Purpose: Real-time motion tracking is a critical issue in image guided radiotherapy due to the time latency caused by image processing and system response. It is of great necessity to fast and accurately predict the future position of the respiratory motion and the tumor location. Methods: The prediction of respiratory position was done based on the positioning and tracking module in ARTS-IGRT system which was developed by FDS Team (www.fds.org.cn). An approach involving with the extreme learning machine (ELM) was adopted to predict the future respiratory position as well as the tumor’s location by training the past trajectories. For the training process, a feed-forward neural network with one single hidden layer was used for the learning. First, the number of hidden nodes was figured out for the single layered feed forward network (SLFN). Then the input weights and hidden layer biases of the SLFN were randomly assigned to calculate the hidden neuron output matrix. Finally, the predicted movement were obtained by applying the output weights and compared with the actual movement. Breathing movement acquired from the external infrared markers was used to test the prediction accuracy. And the implanted marker movement for the prostate cancer was used to test the implementation of the tumor motion prediction. Results: The accuracy of the predicted motion and the actual motion was tested. Five volunteers with different breathing patterns were tested. The average prediction time was 0.281s. And the standard deviation of prediction accuracy was 0.002 for the respiratory motion and 0.001 for the tumor motion. Conclusion: The extreme learning machine method can provide an accurate and fast prediction of the respiratory motion and the tumor location and therefore can meet the requirements of real-time tumor-tracking in image guided radiotherapy.

Osteoporosis risk prediction for bone mineral density assessment of postmenopausal women using machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Sung Kean; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Joon Yul; Lee, Wan Hyung; Oh, Ein; Park, Eun-Cheol

2013-11-01

A number of clinical decision tools for osteoporosis risk assessment have been developed to select postmenopausal women for the measurement of bone mineral density. We developed and validated machine learning models with the aim of more accurately identifying the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women compared to the ability of conventional clinical decision tools. We collected medical records from Korean postmenopausal women based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The training data set was used to construct models based on popular machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM), random forests, artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression (LR) based on simple surveys. The machine learning models were compared to four conventional clinical decision tools: osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST), osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI), simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE), and osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS). SVM had significantly better area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic than ANN, LR, OST, ORAI, SCORE, and OSIRIS for the training set. SVM predicted osteoporosis risk with an AUC of 0.827, accuracy of 76.7%, sensitivity of 77.8%, and specificity of 76.0% at total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine for the testing set. The significant factors selected by SVM were age, height, weight, body mass index, duration of menopause, duration of breast feeding, estrogen therapy, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoarthritis, and diabetes mellitus. Considering various predictors associated with low bone density, the machine learning methods may be effective tools for identifying postmenopausal women at high risk for osteoporosis.

Prediction of Air Pollutants Concentration Based on an Extreme Learning Machine: The Case of Hong Kong.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jiangshe; Ding, Weifu

2017-01-24

With the development of the economy and society all over the world, most metropolitan cities are experiencing elevated concentrations of ground-level air pollutants. It is urgent to predict and evaluate the concentration of air pollutants for some local environmental or health agencies. Feed-forward artificial neural networks have been widely used in the prediction of air pollutants concentration. However, there are some drawbacks, such as the low convergence rate and the local minimum. The extreme learning machine for single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks tends to provide good generalization performance at an extremely fast learning speed. The major sources of air pollutants in Hong Kong are mobile, stationary, and from trans-boundary sources. We propose predicting the concentration of air pollutants by the use of trained extreme learning machines based on the data obtained from eight air quality parameters in two monitoring stations, including Sham Shui Po and Tap Mun in Hong Kong for six years. The experimental results show that our proposed algorithm performs better on the Hong Kong data both quantitatively and qualitatively. Particularly, our algorithm shows better predictive ability, with R 2 increased and root mean square error values decreased respectively.

Prediction of Air Pollutants Concentration Based on an Extreme Learning Machine: The Case of Hong Kong

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiangshe Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available With the development of the economy and society all over the world, most metropolitan cities are experiencing elevated concentrations of ground-level air pollutants. It is urgent to predict and evaluate the concentration of air pollutants for some local environmental or health agencies. Feed-forward artificial neural networks have been widely used in the prediction of air pollutants concentration. However, there are some drawbacks, such as the low convergence rate and the local minimum. The extreme learning machine for single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks tends to provide good generalization performance at an extremely fast learning speed. The major sources of air pollutants in Hong Kong are mobile, stationary, and from trans-boundary sources. We propose predicting the concentration of air pollutants by the use of trained extreme learning machines based on the data obtained from eight air quality parameters in two monitoring stations, including Sham Shui Po and Tap Mun in Hong Kong for six years. The experimental results show that our proposed algorithm performs better on the Hong Kong data both quantitatively and qualitatively. Particularly, our algorithm shows better predictive ability, with R 2 increased and root mean square error values decreased respectively.

Machine learning in cardiovascular medicine: are we there yet?

Science.gov (United States)

Shameer, Khader; Johnson, Kipp W; Glicksberg, Benjamin S; Dudley, Joel T; Sengupta, Partho P

2018-01-19

Artificial intelligence (AI) broadly refers to analytical algorithms that iteratively learn from data, allowing computers to find hidden insights without being explicitly programmed where to look. These include a family of operations encompassing several terms like machine learning, cognitive learning, deep learning and reinforcement learning-based methods that can be used to integrate and interpret complex biomedical and healthcare data in scenarios where traditional statistical methods may not be able to perform. In this review article, we discuss the basics of machine learning algorithms and what potential data sources exist; evaluate the need for machine learning; and examine the potential limitations and challenges of implementing machine in the context of cardiovascular medicine. The most promising avenues for AI in medicine are the development of automated risk prediction algorithms which can be used to guide clinical care; use of unsupervised learning techniques to more precisely phenotype complex disease; and the implementation of reinforcement learning algorithms to intelligently augment healthcare providers. The utility of a machine learning-based predictive model will depend on factors including data heterogeneity, data depth, data breadth, nature of modelling task, choice of machine learning and feature selection algorithms, and orthogonal evidence. A critical understanding of the strength and limitations of various methods and tasks amenable to machine learning is vital. By leveraging the growing corpus of big data in medicine, we detail pathways by which machine learning may facilitate optimal development of patient-specific models for improving diagnoses, intervention and outcome in cardiovascular medicine. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Learning About Climate and Atmospheric Models Through Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

From the analysis of ensemble variability to improving simulation performance, machine learning algorithms can play a powerful role in understanding the behavior of atmospheric and climate models. To learn about model behavior, we create training and testing data sets through ensemble techniques that sample different model configurations and values of input parameters, and then use supervised machine learning to map the relationships between the inputs and outputs. Following this procedure, we have used support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting and other methods to investigate a variety of atmospheric and climate model phenomena. We have used machine learning to predict simulation crashes, estimate the probability density function of climate sensitivity, optimize simulations of the Madden Julian oscillation, assess the impacts of weather and emissions uncertainty on atmospheric dispersion, and quantify the effects of model resolution changes on precipitation. This presentation highlights recent examples of our applications of machine learning to improve the understanding of climate and atmospheric models. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

ROBUSTNESS AND PREDICTION ACCURACY OF MACHINE LEARNING FOR OBJECTIVE VISUAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

Hines, Andrew; Kendrick, Paul; Barri, Adriaan; Narwaria, Manish; Redi, Judith A.

2014-01-01

Machine Learning (ML) is a powerful tool to support the development of objective visual quality assessment metrics, serving as a substitute model for the perceptual mechanisms acting in visual quality appreciation. Nevertheless, the reliability of ML-based techniques within objective quality assessment metrics is often questioned. In this study, the robustness of ML in supporting objective quality assessment is investigated, specifically when the feature set adopted for prediction is suboptim...

Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 04: Predicting waiting times in Radiation Oncology using machine learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph, Ackeem; Herrera, David; Hijal, Tarek; Hendren, Laurie; Leung, Alvin; Wainberg, Justin; Sawaf, Marya; Maxim, Gorshkov; Maglieri, Robert; Keshavarz, Mehryar; Kildea, John

2016-01-01

We describe a method for predicting waiting times in radiation oncology. Machine learning is a powerful predictive modelling tool that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The patient waiting experience remains one of the most vexing challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick and in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. In radiation oncology, patients typically experience three types of waiting: Waiting at home for their treatment plan to be prepared Waiting in the waiting room for daily radiotherapy Waiting in the waiting room to see a physician in consultation or follow-up These waiting periods are difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided, based on personal experience. In the present era of electronic health records, waiting times need not be so uncertain. At our centre, we have incorporated the electronic treatment records of all previously-treated patients into our machine learning model. We found that the Random Forest Regression model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times (type 2). Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. The main features that generated the best fit model (from most to least significant) are: Allocated time, median past duration, fraction number and the number of treatment fields.

Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 04: Predicting waiting times in Radiation Oncology using machine learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joseph, Ackeem; Herrera, David; Hijal, Tarek; Hendren, Laurie; Leung, Alvin; Wainberg, Justin; Sawaf, Marya; Maxim, Gorshkov; Maglieri, Robert; Keshavarz, Mehryar; Kildea, John [McGill University Health Centre (Canada)

2016-08-15

We describe a method for predicting waiting times in radiation oncology. Machine learning is a powerful predictive modelling tool that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The patient waiting experience remains one of the most vexing challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick and in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. In radiation oncology, patients typically experience three types of waiting: Waiting at home for their treatment plan to be prepared Waiting in the waiting room for daily radiotherapy Waiting in the waiting room to see a physician in consultation or follow-up These waiting periods are difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided, based on personal experience. In the present era of electronic health records, waiting times need not be so uncertain. At our centre, we have incorporated the electronic treatment records of all previously-treated patients into our machine learning model. We found that the Random Forest Regression model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times (type 2). Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. The main features that generated the best fit model (from most to least significant) are: Allocated time, median past duration, fraction number and the number of treatment fields.

Open source machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of optimal cancer drug therapies.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Cai; Mezencev, Roman; McDonald, John F; Vannberg, Fredrik

2017-01-01

Precision medicine is a rapidly growing area of modern medical science and open source machine-learning codes promise to be a critical component for the successful development of standardized and automated analysis of patient data. One important goal of precision cancer medicine is the accurate prediction of optimal drug therapies from the genomic profiles of individual patient tumors. We introduce here an open source software platform that employs a highly versatile support vector machine (SVM) algorithm combined with a standard recursive feature elimination (RFE) approach to predict personalized drug responses from gene expression profiles. Drug specific models were built using gene expression and drug response data from the National Cancer Institute panel of 60 human cancer cell lines (NCI-60). The models are highly accurate in predicting the drug responsiveness of a variety of cancer cell lines including those comprising the recent NCI-DREAM Challenge. We demonstrate that predictive accuracy is optimized when the learning dataset utilizes all probe-set expression values from a diversity of cancer cell types without pre-filtering for genes generally considered to be "drivers" of cancer onset/progression. Application of our models to publically available ovarian cancer (OC) patient gene expression datasets generated predictions consistent with observed responses previously reported in the literature. By making our algorithm "open source", we hope to facilitate its testing in a variety of cancer types and contexts leading to community-driven improvements and refinements in subsequent applications.

Open source machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of optimal cancer drug therapies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cai Huang

Full Text Available Precision medicine is a rapidly growing area of modern medical science and open source machine-learning codes promise to be a critical component for the successful development of standardized and automated analysis of patient data. One important goal of precision cancer medicine is the accurate prediction of optimal drug therapies from the genomic profiles of individual patient tumors. We introduce here an open source software platform that employs a highly versatile support vector machine (SVM algorithm combined with a standard recursive feature elimination (RFE approach to predict personalized drug responses from gene expression profiles. Drug specific models were built using gene expression and drug response data from the National Cancer Institute panel of 60 human cancer cell lines (NCI-60. The models are highly accurate in predicting the drug responsiveness of a variety of cancer cell lines including those comprising the recent NCI-DREAM Challenge. We demonstrate that predictive accuracy is optimized when the learning dataset utilizes all probe-set expression values from a diversity of cancer cell types without pre-filtering for genes generally considered to be "drivers" of cancer onset/progression. Application of our models to publically available ovarian cancer (OC patient gene expression datasets generated predictions consistent with observed responses previously reported in the literature. By making our algorithm "open source", we hope to facilitate its testing in a variety of cancer types and contexts leading to community-driven improvements and refinements in subsequent applications.

Machine learning of molecular properties: Locality and active learning

Science.gov (United States)

Gubaev, Konstantin; Podryabinkin, Evgeny V.; Shapeev, Alexander V.

2018-06-01

In recent years, the machine learning techniques have shown great potent1ial in various problems from a multitude of disciplines, including materials design and drug discovery. The high computational speed on the one hand and the accuracy comparable to that of density functional theory on another hand make machine learning algorithms efficient for high-throughput screening through chemical and configurational space. However, the machine learning algorithms available in the literature require large training datasets to reach the chemical accuracy and also show large errors for the so-called outliers—the out-of-sample molecules, not well-represented in the training set. In the present paper, we propose a new machine learning algorithm for predicting molecular properties that addresses these two issues: it is based on a local model of interatomic interactions providing high accuracy when trained on relatively small training sets and an active learning algorithm of optimally choosing the training set that significantly reduces the errors for the outliers. We compare our model to the other state-of-the-art algorithms from the literature on the widely used benchmark tests.

Support vector machine incremental learning triggered by wrongly predicted samples

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Ting-long; Guan, Qiu; Wu, Yi-rong

2018-05-01

According to the classic Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) theorem, at every step of incremental support vector machine (SVM) learning, the newly adding sample which violates the KKT conditions will be a new support vector (SV) and migrate the old samples between SV set and non-support vector (NSV) set, and at the same time the learning model should be updated based on the SVs. However, it is not exactly clear at this moment that which of the old samples would change between SVs and NSVs. Additionally, the learning model will be unnecessarily updated, which will not greatly increase its accuracy but decrease the training speed. Therefore, how to choose the new SVs from old sets during the incremental stages and when to process incremental steps will greatly influence the accuracy and efficiency of incremental SVM learning. In this work, a new algorithm is proposed to select candidate SVs and use the wrongly predicted sample to trigger the incremental processing simultaneously. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can achieve good performance with high efficiency, high speed and good accuracy.

A review of machine learning in obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

DeGregory, K W; Kuiper, P; DeSilvio, T; Pleuss, J D; Miller, R; Roginski, J W; Fisher, C B; Harness, D; Viswanath, S; Heymsfield, S B; Dungan, I; Thomas, D M

2018-05-01

Rich sources of obesity-related data arising from sensors, smartphone apps, electronic medical health records and insurance data can bring new insights for understanding, preventing and treating obesity. For such large datasets, machine learning provides sophisticated and elegant tools to describe, classify and predict obesity-related risks and outcomes. Here, we review machine learning methods that predict and/or classify such as linear and logistic regression, artificial neural networks, deep learning and decision tree analysis. We also review methods that describe and characterize data such as cluster analysis, principal component analysis, network science and topological data analysis. We introduce each method with a high-level overview followed by examples of successful applications. The algorithms were then applied to National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to demonstrate methodology, utility and outcomes. The strengths and limitations of each method were also evaluated. This summary of machine learning algorithms provides a unique overview of the state of data analysis applied specifically to obesity. © 2018 World Obesity Federation.

Machine learning applications in cancer prognosis and prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Kourou, Konstantina; Exarchos, Themis P; Exarchos, Konstantinos P; Karamouzis, Michalis V; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

2015-01-01

Cancer has been characterized as a heterogeneous disease consisting of many different subtypes. The early diagnosis and prognosis of a cancer type have become a necessity in cancer research, as it can facilitate the subsequent clinical management of patients. The importance of classifying cancer patients into high or low risk groups has led many research teams, from the biomedical and the bioinformatics field, to study the application of machine learning (ML) methods. Therefore, these techniques have been utilized as an aim to model the progression and treatment of cancerous conditions. In addition, the ability of ML tools to detect key features from complex datasets reveals their importance. A variety of these techniques, including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Bayesian Networks (BNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Decision Trees (DTs) have been widely applied in cancer research for the development of predictive models, resulting in effective and accurate decision making. Even though it is evident that the use of ML methods can improve our understanding of cancer progression, an appropriate level of validation is needed in order for these methods to be considered in the everyday clinical practice. In this work, we present a review of recent ML approaches employed in the modeling of cancer progression. The predictive models discussed here are based on various supervised ML techniques as well as on different input features and data samples. Given the growing trend on the application of ML methods in cancer research, we present here the most recent publications that employ these techniques as an aim to model cancer risk or patient outcomes.

In Silico Prediction of Chemicals Binding to Aromatase with Machine Learning Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Hanwen; Cai, Yingchun; Yang, Hongbin; Zhang, Hongxiao; Xue, Yuhan; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun; Li, Weihua

2017-05-15

Environmental chemicals may affect endocrine systems through multiple mechanisms, one of which is via effects on aromatase (also known as CYP19A1), an enzyme critical for maintaining the normal balance of estrogens and androgens in the body. Therefore, rapid and efficient identification of aromatase-related endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is important for toxicology and environment risk assessment. In this study, on the basis of the Tox21 10K compound library, in silico classification models for predicting aromatase binders/nonbinders were constructed by machine learning methods. To improve the prediction ability of the models, a combined classifier (CC) strategy that combines different independent machine learning methods was adopted. Performances of the models were measured by test and external validation sets containing 1336 and 216 chemicals, respectively. The best model was obtained with the MACCS (Molecular Access System) fingerprint and CC method, which exhibited an accuracy of 0.84 for the test set and 0.91 for the external validation set. Additionally, several representative substructures for characterizing aromatase binders, such as ketone, lactone, and nitrogen-containing derivatives, were identified using information gain and substructure frequency analysis. Our study provided a systematic assessment of chemicals binding to aromatase. The built models can be helpful to rapidly identify potential EDCs targeting aromatase.

Investigating Mesoscale Convective Systems and their Predictability Using Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Daher, H.; Duffy, D.; Bowen, M. K.

2016-12-01

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a thunderstorm region that lasts several hours long and forms near weather fronts and can often develop into tornadoes. Here we seek to answer the question of whether these tornadoes are "predictable" by looking for a defining characteristic(s) separating MCSs that evolve into tornadoes versus those that do not. Using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications 2 reanalysis data (M2R12K), we apply several state of the art machine learning techniques to investigate this question. The spatial region examined in this experiment is Tornado Alley in the United States over the peak tornado months. A database containing select variables from M2R12K is created using PostgreSQL. This database is then analyzed using machine learning methods such as Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX) and DBSCAN (an unsupervised density-based data clustering algorithm). The incentive behind using these methods is to mathematically define a MCS so that association rule mining techniques can be used to uncover some sort of signal or teleconnection that will help us forecast which MCSs will result in tornadoes and therefore give society more time to prepare and in turn reduce casualties and destruction.

Gene prediction in metagenomic fragments: A large scale machine learning approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morgenstern Burkhard

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Metagenomics is an approach to the characterization of microbial genomes via the direct isolation of genomic sequences from the environment without prior cultivation. The amount of metagenomic sequence data is growing fast while computational methods for metagenome analysis are still in their infancy. In contrast to genomic sequences of single species, which can usually be assembled and analyzed by many available methods, a large proportion of metagenome data remains as unassembled anonymous sequencing reads. One of the aims of all metagenomic sequencing projects is the identification of novel genes. Short length, for example, Sanger sequencing yields on average 700 bp fragments, and unknown phylogenetic origin of most fragments require approaches to gene prediction that are different from the currently available methods for genomes of single species. In particular, the large size of metagenomic samples requires fast and accurate methods with small numbers of false positive predictions. Results We introduce a novel gene prediction algorithm for metagenomic fragments based on a two-stage machine learning approach. In the first stage, we use linear discriminants for monocodon usage, dicodon usage and translation initiation sites to extract features from DNA sequences. In the second stage, an artificial neural network combines these features with open reading frame length and fragment GC-content to compute the probability that this open reading frame encodes a protein. This probability is used for the classification and scoring of gene candidates. With large scale training, our method provides fast single fragment predictions with good sensitivity and specificity on artificially fragmented genomic DNA. Additionally, this method is able to predict translation initiation sites accurately and distinguishes complete from incomplete genes with high reliability. Conclusion Large scale machine learning methods are well-suited for gene

INSIGHTS FROM MACHINE-LEARNED DIET SUCCESS PREDICTION.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Ingmar; Achananuparp, Palakorn

2016-01-01

To support people trying to lose weight and stay healthy, more and more fitness apps have sprung up including the ability to track both calories intake and expenditure. Users of such apps are part of a wider "quantified self" movement and many opt-in to publicly share their logged data. In this paper, we use public food diaries of more than 4,000 long-term active MyFitnessPal users to study the characteristics of a (un-)successful diet. Concretely, we train a machine learning model to predict repeatedly being over or under self-set daily calories goals and then look at which features contribute to the model's prediction. Our findings include both expected results, such as the token "mcdonalds" or the category "dessert" being indicative for being over the calories goal, but also less obvious ones such as the difference between pork and poultry concerning dieting success, or the use of the "quick added calories" functionality being indicative of over-shooting calorie-wise. This study also hints at the feasibility of using such data for more in-depth data mining, e.g., looking at the interaction between consumed foods such as mixing protein- and carbohydrate-rich foods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic study of public food diaries.

Machine learning and medicine: book review and commentary.

Science.gov (United States)

Koprowski, Robert; Foster, Kenneth R

2018-02-01

This article is a review of the book "Master machine learning algorithms, discover how they work and implement them from scratch" (ISBN: not available, 37 USD, 163 pages) edited by Jason Brownlee published by the Author, edition, v1.10 http://MachineLearningMastery.com . An accompanying commentary discusses some of the issues that are involved with use of machine learning and data mining techniques to develop predictive models for diagnosis or prognosis of disease, and to call attention to additional requirements for developing diagnostic and prognostic algorithms that are generally useful in medicine. Appendix provides examples that illustrate potential problems with machine learning that are not addressed in the reviewed book.

Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

OpenAIRE

Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

2018-01-01

This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

Model-Agnostic Interpretability of Machine Learning

OpenAIRE

Ribeiro, Marco Tulio; Singh, Sameer; Guestrin, Carlos

2016-01-01

Understanding why machine learning models behave the way they do empowers both system designers and end-users in many ways: in model selection, feature engineering, in order to trust and act upon the predictions, and in more intuitive user interfaces. Thus, interpretability has become a vital concern in machine learning, and work in the area of interpretable models has found renewed interest. In some applications, such models are as accurate as non-interpretable ones, and thus are preferred f...

Prediction of laser cutting heat affected zone by extreme learning machine

Science.gov (United States)

Anicic, Obrad; Jović, Srđan; Skrijelj, Hivzo; Nedić, Bogdan

2017-01-01

Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation the HAZ forecasting, based on the different laser cutting parameters, was analyzed. The main goal was to predict the HAZ according to three inputs. The purpose of this research was to develop and apply the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) to predict the HAZ. The ELM results were compared with genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). The reliability of the computational models were accessed based on simulation results and by using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was demonstrated that ELM can be utilized effectively in applications of HAZ forecasting.

Quantum machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Biamonte, Jacob; Wittek, Peter; Pancotti, Nicola; Rebentrost, Patrick; Wiebe, Nathan; Lloyd, Seth

2017-09-13

Fuelled by increasing computer power and algorithmic advances, machine learning techniques have become powerful tools for finding patterns in data. Quantum systems produce atypical patterns that classical systems are thought not to produce efficiently, so it is reasonable to postulate that quantum computers may outperform classical computers on machine learning tasks. The field of quantum machine learning explores how to devise and implement quantum software that could enable machine learning that is faster than that of classical computers. Recent work has produced quantum algorithms that could act as the building blocks of machine learning programs, but the hardware and software challenges are still considerable.

The validation and assessment of machine learning: a game of prediction from high-dimensional data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tune H Pers

Full Text Available In applied statistics, tools from machine learning are popular for analyzing complex and high-dimensional data. However, few theoretical results are available that could guide to the appropriate machine learning tool in a new application. Initial development of an overall strategy thus often implies that multiple methods are tested and compared on the same set of data. This is particularly difficult in situations that are prone to over-fitting where the number of subjects is low compared to the number of potential predictors. The article presents a game which provides some grounds for conducting a fair model comparison. Each player selects a modeling strategy for predicting individual response from potential predictors. A strictly proper scoring rule, bootstrap cross-validation, and a set of rules are used to make the results obtained with different strategies comparable. To illustrate the ideas, the game is applied to data from the Nugenob Study where the aim is to predict the fat oxidation capacity based on conventional factors and high-dimensional metabolomics data. Three players have chosen to use support vector machines, LASSO, and random forests, respectively.

A data-driven predictive approach for drug delivery using machine learning techniques.

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Yuanyuan Li

Full Text Available In drug delivery, there is often a trade-off between effective killing of the pathogen, and harmful side effects associated with the treatment. Due to the difficulty in testing every dosing scenario experimentally, a computational approach will be helpful to assist with the prediction of effective drug delivery methods. In this paper, we have developed a data-driven predictive system, using machine learning techniques, to determine, in silico, the effectiveness of drug dosing. The system framework is scalable, autonomous, robust, and has the ability to predict the effectiveness of the current drug treatment and the subsequent drug-pathogen dynamics. The system consists of a dynamic model incorporating both the drug concentration and pathogen population into distinct states. These states are then analyzed using a temporal model to describe the drug-cell interactions over time. The dynamic drug-cell interactions are learned in an adaptive fashion and used to make sequential predictions on the effectiveness of the dosing strategy. Incorporated into the system is the ability to adjust the sensitivity and specificity of the learned models based on a threshold level determined by the operator for the specific application. As a proof-of-concept, the system was validated experimentally using the pathogen Giardia lamblia and the drug metronidazole in vitro.

Implementing Machine Learning in the PCWG Tool

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Clifton, Andrew; Ding, Yu; Stuart, Peter

2016-12-13

The Power Curve Working Group (www.pcwg.org) is an ad-hoc industry-led group to investigate the performance of wind turbines in real-world conditions. As part of ongoing experience-sharing exercises, machine learning has been proposed as a possible way to predict turbine performance. This presentation provides some background information about machine learning and how it might be implemented in the PCWG exercises.

Comparison of machine-learning algorithms to build a predictive model for detecting undiagnosed diabetes - ELSA-Brasil: accuracy study.

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Olivera, André Rodrigues; Roesler, Valter; Iochpe, Cirano; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Vigo, Álvaro; Barreto, Sandhi Maria; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow

2017-01-01

Type 2 diabetes is a chronic disease associated with a wide range of serious health complications that have a major impact on overall health. The aims here were to develop and validate predictive models for detecting undiagnosed diabetes using data from the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) and to compare the performance of different machine-learning algorithms in this task. Comparison of machine-learning algorithms to develop predictive models using data from ELSA-Brasil. After selecting a subset of 27 candidate variables from the literature, models were built and validated in four sequential steps: (i) parameter tuning with tenfold cross-validation, repeated three times; (ii) automatic variable selection using forward selection, a wrapper strategy with four different machine-learning algorithms and tenfold cross-validation (repeated three times), to evaluate each subset of variables; (iii) error estimation of model parameters with tenfold cross-validation, repeated ten times; and (iv) generalization testing on an independent dataset. The models were created with the following machine-learning algorithms: logistic regression, artificial neural network, naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbor and random forest. The best models were created using artificial neural networks and logistic regression. -These achieved mean areas under the curve of, respectively, 75.24% and 74.98% in the error estimation step and 74.17% and 74.41% in the generalization testing step. Most of the predictive models produced similar results, and demonstrated the feasibility of identifying individuals with highest probability of having undiagnosed diabetes, through easily-obtained clinical data.

Inverse Problems in Geodynamics Using Machine Learning Algorithms

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Shahnas, M. H.; Yuen, D. A.; Pysklywec, R. N.

2018-01-01

During the past few decades numerical studies have been widely employed to explore the style of circulation and mixing in the mantle of Earth and other planets. However, in geodynamical studies there are many properties from mineral physics, geochemistry, and petrology in these numerical models. Machine learning, as a computational statistic-related technique and a subfield of artificial intelligence, has rapidly emerged recently in many fields of sciences and engineering. We focus here on the application of supervised machine learning (SML) algorithms in predictions of mantle flow processes. Specifically, we emphasize on estimating mantle properties by employing machine learning techniques in solving an inverse problem. Using snapshots of numerical convection models as training samples, we enable machine learning models to determine the magnitude of the spin transition-induced density anomalies that can cause flow stagnation at midmantle depths. Employing support vector machine algorithms, we show that SML techniques can successfully predict the magnitude of mantle density anomalies and can also be used in characterizing mantle flow patterns. The technique can be extended to more complex geodynamic problems in mantle dynamics by employing deep learning algorithms for putting constraints on properties such as viscosity, elastic parameters, and the nature of thermal and chemical anomalies.

Predicting Post-Translational Modifications from Local Sequence Fragments Using Machine Learning Algorithms: Overview and Best Practices.

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Tatjewski, Marcin; Kierczak, Marcin; Plewczynski, Dariusz

2017-01-01

Here, we present two perspectives on the task of predicting post translational modifications (PTMs) from local sequence fragments using machine learning algorithms. The first is the description of the fundamental steps required to construct a PTM predictor from the very beginning. These steps include data gathering, feature extraction, or machine-learning classifier selection. The second part of our work contains the detailed discussion of more advanced problems which are encountered in PTM prediction task. Probably the most challenging issues which we have covered here are: (1) how to address the training data class imbalance problem (we also present statistics describing the problem); (2) how to properly set up cross-validation folds with an approach which takes into account the homology of protein data records, to address this problem we present our folds-over-clusters algorithm; and (3) how to efficiently reach for new sources of learning features. Presented techniques and notes resulted from intense studies in the field, performed by our and other groups, and can be useful both for researchers beginning in the field of PTM prediction and for those who want to extend the repertoire of their research techniques.

Reversible Watermarking Using Prediction-Error Expansion and Extreme Learning Machine

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Guangyong Gao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, the research for reversible watermarking focuses on the decreasing of image distortion. Aiming at this issue, this paper presents an improvement method to lower the embedding distortion based on the prediction-error expansion (PE technique. Firstly, the extreme learning machine (ELM with good generalization ability is utilized to enhance the prediction accuracy for image pixel value during the watermarking embedding, and the lower prediction error results in the reduction of image distortion. Moreover, an optimization operation for strengthening the performance of ELM is taken to further lessen the embedding distortion. With two popular predictors, that is, median edge detector (MED predictor and gradient-adjusted predictor (GAP, the experimental results for the classical images and Kodak image set indicate that the proposed scheme achieves improvement for the lowering of image distortion compared with the classical PE scheme proposed by Thodi et al. and outperforms the improvement method presented by Coltuc and other existing approaches.

In Silico Prediction of Chemical Toxicity for Drug Design Using Machine Learning Methods and Structural Alerts

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Yang, Hongbin; Sun, Lixia; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

2018-02-01

For a drug, safety is always the most important issue, including a variety of toxicities and adverse drug effects, which should be evaluated in preclinical and clinical trial phases. This review article at first simply introduced the computational methods used in prediction of chemical toxicity for drug design, including machine learning methods and structural alerts. Machine learning methods have been widely applied in qualitative classification and quantitative regression studies, while structural alerts can be regarded as a complementary tool for lead optimization. The emphasis of this article was put on the recent progress of predictive models built for various toxicities. Available databases and web servers were also provided. Though the methods and models are very helpful for drug design, there are still some challenges and limitations to be improved for drug safety assessment in the future.

In Silico Prediction of Chemical Toxicity for Drug Design Using Machine Learning Methods and Structural Alerts

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Hongbin Yang

2018-02-01

Full Text Available During drug development, safety is always the most important issue, including a variety of toxicities and adverse drug effects, which should be evaluated in preclinical and clinical trial phases. This review article at first simply introduced the computational methods used in prediction of chemical toxicity for drug design, including machine learning methods and structural alerts. Machine learning methods have been widely applied in qualitative classification and quantitative regression studies, while structural alerts can be regarded as a complementary tool for lead optimization. The emphasis of this article was put on the recent progress of predictive models built for various toxicities. Available databases and web servers were also provided. Though the methods and models are very helpful for drug design, there are still some challenges and limitations to be improved for drug safety assessment in the future.

In Silico Prediction of Chemical Toxicity for Drug Design Using Machine Learning Methods and Structural Alerts.

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Yang, Hongbin; Sun, Lixia; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

2018-01-01

During drug development, safety is always the most important issue, including a variety of toxicities and adverse drug effects, which should be evaluated in preclinical and clinical trial phases. This review article at first simply introduced the computational methods used in prediction of chemical toxicity for drug design, including machine learning methods and structural alerts. Machine learning methods have been widely applied in qualitative classification and quantitative regression studies, while structural alerts can be regarded as a complementary tool for lead optimization. The emphasis of this article was put on the recent progress of predictive models built for various toxicities. Available databases and web servers were also provided. Though the methods and models are very helpful for drug design, there are still some challenges and limitations to be improved for drug safety assessment in the future.

Prediction of Baseflow Index of Catchments using Machine Learning Algorithms

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Yadav, B.; Hatfield, K.

2017-12-01

We present the results of eight machine learning techniques for predicting the baseflow index (BFI) of ungauged basins using a surrogate of catchment scale climate and physiographic data. The tested algorithms include ordinary least squares, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elasticnet, support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Our work seeks to identify the dominant controls of BFI that can be readily obtained from ancillary geospatial databases and remote sensing measurements, such that the developed techniques can be extended to ungauged catchments. More than 800 gauged catchments spanning the continental United States were selected to develop the general methodology. The BFI calculation was based on the baseflow separated from daily streamflow hydrograph using HYSEP filter. The surrogate catchment attributes were compiled from multiple sources including digital elevation model, soil, landuse, climate data, other publicly available ancillary and geospatial data. 80% catchments were used to train the ML algorithms, and the remaining 20% of the catchments were used as an independent test set to measure the generalization performance of fitted models. A k-fold cross-validation using exhaustive grid search was used to fit the hyperparameters of each model. Initial model development was based on 19 independent variables, but after variable selection and feature ranking, we generated revised sparse models of BFI prediction that are based on only six catchment attributes. These key predictive variables selected after the careful evaluation of bias-variance tradeoff include average catchment elevation, slope, fraction of sand, permeability, temperature, and precipitation. The most promising algorithms exceeding an accuracy score (r-square) of 0.7 on test data include support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized

Modeling Geomagnetic Variations using a Machine Learning Framework

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Cheung, C. M. M.; Handmer, C.; Kosar, B.; Gerules, G.; Poduval, B.; Mackintosh, G.; Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Bobra, M.; Hernandez, T.; McGranaghan, R. M.

2017-12-01

We present a framework for data-driven modeling of Heliophysics time series data. The Solar Terrestrial Interaction Neural net Generator (STING) is an open source python module built on top of state-of-the-art statistical learning frameworks (traditional machine learning methods as well as deep learning). To showcase the capability of STING, we deploy it for the problem of predicting the temporal variation of geomagnetic fields. The data used includes solar wind measurements from the OMNI database and geomagnetic field data taken by magnetometers at US Geological Survey observatories. We examine the predictive capability of different machine learning techniques (recurrent neural networks, support vector machines) for a range of forecasting times (minutes to 12 hours). STING is designed to be extensible to other types of data. We show how STING can be used on large sets of data from different sensors/observatories and adapted to tackle other problems in Heliophysics.

Gaussian processes for machine learning.

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Seeger, Matthias

2004-04-01

Gaussian processes (GPs) are natural generalisations of multivariate Gaussian random variables to infinite (countably or continuous) index sets. GPs have been applied in a large number of fields to a diverse range of ends, and very many deep theoretical analyses of various properties are available. This paper gives an introduction to Gaussian processes on a fairly elementary level with special emphasis on characteristics relevant in machine learning. It draws explicit connections to branches such as spline smoothing models and support vector machines in which similar ideas have been investigated. Gaussian process models are routinely used to solve hard machine learning problems. They are attractive because of their flexible non-parametric nature and computational simplicity. Treated within a Bayesian framework, very powerful statistical methods can be implemented which offer valid estimates of uncertainties in our predictions and generic model selection procedures cast as nonlinear optimization problems. Their main drawback of heavy computational scaling has recently been alleviated by the introduction of generic sparse approximations.13,78,31 The mathematical literature on GPs is large and often uses deep concepts which are not required to fully understand most machine learning applications. In this tutorial paper, we aim to present characteristics of GPs relevant to machine learning and to show up precise connections to other "kernel machines" popular in the community. Our focus is on a simple presentation, but references to more detailed sources are provided.

Application of Machine Learning Algorithms for the Query Performance Prediction

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MILICEVIC, M.

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the relationship between the system load/throughput and the query response time in a real Online transaction processing (OLTP system environment. Although OLTP systems are characterized by short transactions, which normally entail high availability and consistent short response times, the need for operational reporting may jeopardize these objectives. We suggest a new approach to performance prediction for concurrent database workloads, based on the system state vector which consists of 36 attributes. There is no bias to the importance of certain attributes, but the machine learning methods are used to determine which attributes better describe the behavior of the particular database server and how to model that system. During the learning phase, the system's profile is created using multiple reference queries, which are selected to represent frequent business processes. The possibility of the accurate response time prediction may be a foundation for automated decision-making for database (DB query scheduling. Possible applications of the proposed method include adaptive resource allocation, quality of service (QoS management or real-time dynamic query scheduling (e.g. estimation of the optimal moment for a complex query execution.

Machine Learning Approach for Prediction and Understanding of Glass-Forming Ability.

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Sun, Y T; Bai, H Y; Li, M Z; Wang, W H

2017-07-20

The prediction of the glass-forming ability (GFA) by varying the composition of alloys is a challenging problem in glass physics, as well as a problem for industry, with enormous financial ramifications. Although different empirical guides for the prediction of GFA were established over decades, a comprehensive model or approach that is able to deal with as many variables as possible simultaneously for efficiently predicting good glass formers is still highly desirable. Here, by applying the support vector classification method, we develop models for predicting the GFA of binary metallic alloys from random compositions. The effect of different input descriptors on GFA were evaluated, and the best prediction model was selected, which shows that the information related to liquidus temperatures plays a key role in the GFA of alloys. On the basis of this model, good glass formers can be predicted with high efficiency. The prediction efficiency can be further enhanced by improving larger database and refined input descriptor selection. Our findings suggest that machine learning is very powerful and efficient and has great potential for discovering new metallic glasses with good GFA.

Plant MicroRNA Prediction by Supervised Machine Learning Using C5.0 Decision Trees.

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Williams, Philip H; Eyles, Rod; Weiller, Georg

2012-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are nonprotein coding RNAs between 20 and 22 nucleotides long that attenuate protein production. Different types of sequence data are being investigated for novel miRNAs, including genomic and transcriptomic sequences. A variety of machine learning methods have successfully predicted miRNA precursors, mature miRNAs, and other nonprotein coding sequences. MirTools, mirDeep2, and miRanalyzer require "read count" to be included with the input sequences, which restricts their use to deep-sequencing data. Our aim was to train a predictor using a cross-section of different species to accurately predict miRNAs outside the training set. We wanted a system that did not require read-count for prediction and could therefore be applied to short sequences extracted from genomic, EST, or RNA-seq sources. A miRNA-predictive decision-tree model has been developed by supervised machine learning. It only requires that the corresponding genome or transcriptome is available within a sequence window that includes the precursor candidate so that the required sequence features can be collected. Some of the most critical features for training the predictor are the miRNA:miRNA(∗) duplex energy and the number of mismatches in the duplex. We present a cross-species plant miRNA predictor with 84.08% sensitivity and 98.53% specificity based on rigorous testing by leave-one-out validation.

Plant MicroRNA Prediction by Supervised Machine Learning Using C5.0 Decision Trees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip H. Williams

2012-01-01

Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are nonprotein coding RNAs between 20 and 22 nucleotides long that attenuate protein production. Different types of sequence data are being investigated for novel miRNAs, including genomic and transcriptomic sequences. A variety of machine learning methods have successfully predicted miRNA precursors, mature miRNAs, and other nonprotein coding sequences. MirTools, mirDeep2, and miRanalyzer require “read count” to be included with the input sequences, which restricts their use to deep-sequencing data. Our aim was to train a predictor using a cross-section of different species to accurately predict miRNAs outside the training set. We wanted a system that did not require read-count for prediction and could therefore be applied to short sequences extracted from genomic, EST, or RNA-seq sources. A miRNA-predictive decision-tree model has been developed by supervised machine learning. It only requires that the corresponding genome or transcriptome is available within a sequence window that includes the precursor candidate so that the required sequence features can be collected. Some of the most critical features for training the predictor are the miRNA:miRNA∗ duplex energy and the number of mismatches in the duplex. We present a cross-species plant miRNA predictor with 84.08% sensitivity and 98.53% specificity based on rigorous testing by leave-one-out validation.

A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

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Qiang Shang

Full Text Available Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS. Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM. SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA. Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

An Evolutionary Machine Learning Framework for Big Data Sequence Mining

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Kamath, Uday Krishna

2014-01-01

Sequence classification is an important problem in many real-world applications. Unlike other machine learning data, there are no "explicit" features or signals in sequence data that can help traditional machine learning algorithms learn and predict from the data. Sequence data exhibits inter-relationships in the elements that are…

Machine Learning Approaches for Clinical Psychology and Psychiatry.

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Dwyer, Dominic B; Falkai, Peter; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos

2018-05-07

Machine learning approaches for clinical psychology and psychiatry explicitly focus on learning statistical functions from multidimensional data sets to make generalizable predictions about individuals. The goal of this review is to provide an accessible understanding of why this approach is important for future practice given its potential to augment decisions associated with the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of people suffering from mental illness using clinical and biological data. To this end, the limitations of current statistical paradigms in mental health research are critiqued, and an introduction is provided to critical machine learning methods used in clinical studies. A selective literature review is then presented aiming to reinforce the usefulness of machine learning methods and provide evidence of their potential. In the context of promising initial results, the current limitations of machine learning approaches are addressed, and considerations for future clinical translation are outlined.

Machine learning molecular dynamics for the simulation of infrared spectra.

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Gastegger, Michael; Behler, Jörg; Marquetand, Philipp

2017-10-01

Machine learning has emerged as an invaluable tool in many research areas. In the present work, we harness this power to predict highly accurate molecular infrared spectra with unprecedented computational efficiency. To account for vibrational anharmonic and dynamical effects - typically neglected by conventional quantum chemistry approaches - we base our machine learning strategy on ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. While these simulations are usually extremely time consuming even for small molecules, we overcome these limitations by leveraging the power of a variety of machine learning techniques, not only accelerating simulations by several orders of magnitude, but also greatly extending the size of systems that can be treated. To this end, we develop a molecular dipole moment model based on environment dependent neural network charges and combine it with the neural network potential approach of Behler and Parrinello. Contrary to the prevalent big data philosophy, we are able to obtain very accurate machine learning models for the prediction of infrared spectra based on only a few hundreds of electronic structure reference points. This is made possible through the use of molecular forces during neural network potential training and the introduction of a fully automated sampling scheme. We demonstrate the power of our machine learning approach by applying it to model the infrared spectra of a methanol molecule, n -alkanes containing up to 200 atoms and the protonated alanine tripeptide, which at the same time represents the first application of machine learning techniques to simulate the dynamics of a peptide. In all of these case studies we find an excellent agreement between the infrared spectra predicted via machine learning models and the respective theoretical and experimental spectra.

Machine Learning Techniques in Clinical Vision Sciences.

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Caixinha, Miguel; Nunes, Sandrina

2017-01-01

This review presents and discusses the contribution of machine learning techniques for diagnosis and disease monitoring in the context of clinical vision science. Many ocular diseases leading to blindness can be halted or delayed when detected and treated at its earliest stages. With the recent developments in diagnostic devices, imaging and genomics, new sources of data for early disease detection and patients' management are now available. Machine learning techniques emerged in the biomedical sciences as clinical decision-support techniques to improve sensitivity and specificity of disease detection and monitoring, increasing objectively the clinical decision-making process. This manuscript presents a review in multimodal ocular disease diagnosis and monitoring based on machine learning approaches. In the first section, the technical issues related to the different machine learning approaches will be present. Machine learning techniques are used to automatically recognize complex patterns in a given dataset. These techniques allows creating homogeneous groups (unsupervised learning), or creating a classifier predicting group membership of new cases (supervised learning), when a group label is available for each case. To ensure a good performance of the machine learning techniques in a given dataset, all possible sources of bias should be removed or minimized. For that, the representativeness of the input dataset for the true population should be confirmed, the noise should be removed, the missing data should be treated and the data dimensionally (i.e., the number of parameters/features and the number of cases in the dataset) should be adjusted. The application of machine learning techniques in ocular disease diagnosis and monitoring will be presented and discussed in the second section of this manuscript. To show the clinical benefits of machine learning in clinical vision sciences, several examples will be presented in glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration

Controlling misses and false alarms in a machine learning framework for predicting uniformity of printed pages

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Nguyen, Minh Q.; Allebach, Jan P.

2015-01-01

In our previous work1 , we presented a block-based technique to analyze printed page uniformity both visually and metrically. The features learned from the models were then employed in a Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework to classify the pages into one of the two categories of acceptable and unacceptable quality. In this paper, we introduce a set of tools for machine learning in the assessment of printed page uniformity. This work is primarily targeted to the printing industry, specifically the ubiquitous laser, electrophotographic printer. We use features that are well-correlated with the rankings of expert observers to develop a novel machine learning framework that allows one to achieve the minimum "false alarm" rate, subject to a chosen "miss" rate. Surprisingly, most of the research that has been conducted on machine learning does not consider this framework. During the process of developing a new product, test engineers will print hundreds of test pages, which can be scanned and then analyzed by an autonomous algorithm. Among these pages, most may be of acceptable quality. The objective is to find the ones that are not. These will provide critically important information to systems designers, regarding issues that need to be addressed in improving the printer design. A "miss" is defined to be a page that is not of acceptable quality to an expert observer that the prediction algorithm declares to be a "pass". Misses are a serious problem, since they represent problems that will not be seen by the systems designers. On the other hand, "false alarms" correspond to pages that an expert observer would declare to be of acceptable quality, but which are flagged by the prediction algorithm as "fails". In a typical printer testing and development scenario, such pages would be examined by an expert, and found to be of acceptable quality after all. "False alarm" pages result in extra pages to be examined by expert observers, which increases labor cost. But "false

Studying depression using imaging and machine learning methods.

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Patel, Meenal J; Khalaf, Alexander; Aizenstein, Howard J

2016-01-01

Depression is a complex clinical entity that can pose challenges for clinicians regarding both accurate diagnosis and effective timely treatment. These challenges have prompted the development of multiple machine learning methods to help improve the management of this disease. These methods utilize anatomical and physiological data acquired from neuroimaging to create models that can identify depressed patients vs. non-depressed patients and predict treatment outcomes. This article (1) presents a background on depression, imaging, and machine learning methodologies; (2) reviews methodologies of past studies that have used imaging and machine learning to study depression; and (3) suggests directions for future depression-related studies.

Predicting the Geothermal Heat Flux in Greenland: A Machine Learning Approach

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Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; Stearns, Leigh A.; Kadivar, Amir; Walker, J. Doug; van der Veen, C. J.

2017-12-01

Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a crucial boundary condition for making accurate predictions of ice sheet mass loss, yet it is poorly known in Greenland due to inaccessibility of the bedrock. Here we use a machine learning algorithm on a large collection of relevant geologic features and global GHF measurements and produce a GHF map of Greenland that we argue is within ˜15% accuracy. The main features of our predicted GHF map include a large region with high GHF in central-north Greenland surrounding the NorthGRIP ice core site, and hot spots in the Jakobshavn Isbræ catchment, upstream of Petermann Gletscher, and near the terminus of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier. Our model also captures the trajectory of Greenland movement over the Icelandic plume by predicting a stripe of elevated GHF in central-east Greenland. Finally, we show that our model can produce substantially more accurate predictions if additional measurements of GHF in Greenland are provided.

Comparison of machine learning techniques to predict all-cause mortality using fitness data: the Henry ford exercIse testing (FIT) project.

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Sakr, Sherif; Elshawi, Radwa; Ahmed, Amjad M; Qureshi, Waqas T; Brawner, Clinton A; Keteyian, Steven J; Blaha, Michael J; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

2017-12-19

Prior studies have demonstrated that cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a strong marker of cardiovascular health. Machine learning (ML) can enhance the prediction of outcomes through classification techniques that classify the data into predetermined categories. The aim of this study is to present an evaluation and comparison of how machine learning techniques can be applied on medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness and how the various techniques differ in terms of capabilities of predicting medical outcomes (e.g. mortality). We use data of 34,212 patients free of known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems Between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 10-year follow-up. Seven machine learning classification techniques were evaluated: Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Naïve Bayesian Classifier (BC), Bayesian Network (BN), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Random Forest (RF). In order to handle the imbalanced dataset used, the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) is used. Two set of experiments have been conducted with and without the SMOTE sampling technique. On average over different evaluation metrics, SVM Classifier has shown the lowest performance while other models like BN, BC and DT performed better. The RF classifier has shown the best performance (AUC = 0.97) among all models trained using the SMOTE sampling. The results show that various ML techniques can significantly vary in terms of its performance for the different evaluation metrics. It is also not necessarily that the more complex the ML model, the more prediction accuracy can be achieved. The prediction performance of all models trained with SMOTE is much better than the performance of models trained without SMOTE. The study shows the potential of machine learning methods for predicting all-cause mortality using cardiorespiratory fitness

A review of machine learning methods to predict the solubility of overexpressed recombinant proteins in Escherichia coli.

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Habibi, Narjeskhatoon; Mohd Hashim, Siti Z; Norouzi, Alireza; Samian, Mohammed Razip

2014-05-08

Over the last 20 years in biotechnology, the production of recombinant proteins has been a crucial bioprocess in both biopharmaceutical and research arena in terms of human health, scientific impact and economic volume. Although logical strategies of genetic engineering have been established, protein overexpression is still an art. In particular, heterologous expression is often hindered by low level of production and frequent fail due to opaque reasons. The problem is accentuated because there is no generic solution available to enhance heterologous overexpression. For a given protein, the extent of its solubility can indicate the quality of its function. Over 30% of synthesized proteins are not soluble. In certain experimental circumstances, including temperature, expression host, etc., protein solubility is a feature eventually defined by its sequence. Until now, numerous methods based on machine learning are proposed to predict the solubility of protein merely from its amino acid sequence. In spite of the 20 years of research on the matter, no comprehensive review is available on the published methods. This paper presents an extensive review of the existing models to predict protein solubility in Escherichia coli recombinant protein overexpression system. The models are investigated and compared regarding the datasets used, features, feature selection methods, machine learning techniques and accuracy of prediction. A discussion on the models is provided at the end. This study aims to investigate extensively the machine learning based methods to predict recombinant protein solubility, so as to offer a general as well as a detailed understanding for researches in the field. Some of the models present acceptable prediction performances and convenient user interfaces. These models can be considered as valuable tools to predict recombinant protein overexpression results before performing real laboratory experiments, thus saving labour, time and cost.

Machine learning in the string landscape

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Carifio, Jonathan; Halverson, James; Krioukov, Dmitri; Nelson, Brent D.

2017-09-01

We utilize machine learning to study the string landscape. Deep data dives and conjecture generation are proposed as useful frameworks for utilizing machine learning in the landscape, and examples of each are presented. A decision tree accurately predicts the number of weak Fano toric threefolds arising from reflexive polytopes, each of which determines a smooth F-theory compactification, and linear regression generates a previously proven conjecture for the gauge group rank in an ensemble of 4/3× 2.96× {10}^{755} F-theory compactifications. Logistic regression generates a new conjecture for when E 6 arises in the large ensemble of F-theory compactifications, which is then rigorously proven. This result may be relevant for the appearance of visible sectors in the ensemble. Through conjecture generation, machine learning is useful not only for numerics, but also for rigorous results.

Variable complexity online sequential extreme learning machine, with applications to streamflow prediction

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Lima, Aranildo R.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

2017-12-01

In situations where new data arrive continually, online learning algorithms are computationally much less costly than batch learning ones in maintaining the model up-to-date. The extreme learning machine (ELM), a single hidden layer artificial neural network with random weights in the hidden layer, is solved by linear least squares, and has an online learning version, the online sequential ELM (OSELM). As more data become available during online learning, information on the longer time scale becomes available, so ideally the model complexity should be allowed to change, but the number of hidden nodes (HN) remains fixed in OSELM. A variable complexity VC-OSELM algorithm is proposed to dynamically add or remove HN in the OSELM, allowing the model complexity to vary automatically as online learning proceeds. The performance of VC-OSELM was compared with OSELM in daily streamflow predictions at two hydrological stations in British Columbia, Canada, with VC-OSELM significantly outperforming OSELM in mean absolute error, root mean squared error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at both stations.

Broiler chickens can benefit from machine learning: support vector machine analysis of observational epidemiological data.

Science.gov (United States)

Hepworth, Philip J; Nefedov, Alexey V; Muchnik, Ilya B; Morgan, Kenton L

2012-08-07

Machine-learning algorithms pervade our daily lives. In epidemiology, supervised machine learning has the potential for classification, diagnosis and risk factor identification. Here, we report the use of support vector machine learning to identify the features associated with hock burn on commercial broiler farms, using routinely collected farm management data. These data lend themselves to analysis using machine-learning techniques. Hock burn, dermatitis of the skin over the hock, is an important indicator of broiler health and welfare. Remarkably, this classifier can predict the occurrence of high hock burn prevalence with accuracy of 0.78 on unseen data, as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We also compare the results with those obtained by standard multi-variable logistic regression and suggest that this technique provides new insights into the data. This novel application of a machine-learning algorithm, embedded in poultry management systems could offer significant improvements in broiler health and welfare worldwide.

Indonesian Stock Prediction using Support Vector Machine (SVM

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Santoso Murtiyanto

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This project is part of developing software to provide predictive information technology-based services artificial intelligence (Machine Intelligence or Machine Learning that will be utilized in the money market community. The prediction method used in this early stages uses the combination of Gaussian Mixture Model and Support Vector Machine with Python programming. The system predicts the price of Astra International (stock code: ASII.JK stock data. The data used was taken during 17 yr period of January 2000 until September 2017. Some data was used for training/modeling (80 % of data and the remainder (20 % was used for testing. An integrated model comprising Gaussian Mixture Model and Support Vector Machine system has been tested to predict stock market of ASII.JK for l d in advance. This model has been compared with the Market Cummulative Return. From the results, it is depicts that the Gaussian Mixture Model-Support Vector Machine based stock predicted model, offers significant improvement over the compared models resulting sharpe ratio of 3.22.

Machine Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirrane, Diane E.

1990-01-01

As scientists seek to develop machines that can "learn," that is, solve problems by imitating the human brain, a gold mine of information on the processes of human learning is being discovered, expert systems are being improved, and human-machine interactions are being enhanced. (SK)

Predicting diabetes mellitus using SMOTE and ensemble machine learning approach: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) project.

Science.gov (United States)

Alghamdi, Manal; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Keteyian, Steven; Brawner, Clinton; Ehrman, Jonathan; Sakr, Sherif

2017-01-01

Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree) and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92). The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

Predicting diabetes mellitus using SMOTE and ensemble machine learning approach: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT project.

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Manal Alghamdi

Full Text Available Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE. The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92. The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

TargetSpy: a supervised machine learning approach for microRNA target prediction.

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Sturm, Martin; Hackenberg, Michael; Langenberger, David; Frishman, Dmitrij

2010-05-28

Virtually all currently available microRNA target site prediction algorithms require the presence of a (conserved) seed match to the 5' end of the microRNA. Recently however, it has been shown that this requirement might be too stringent, leading to a substantial number of missed target sites. We developed TargetSpy, a novel computational approach for predicting target sites regardless of the presence of a seed match. It is based on machine learning and automatic feature selection using a wide spectrum of compositional, structural, and base pairing features covering current biological knowledge. Our model does not rely on evolutionary conservation, which allows the detection of species-specific interactions and makes TargetSpy suitable for analyzing unconserved genomic sequences.In order to allow for an unbiased comparison of TargetSpy to other methods, we classified all algorithms into three groups: I) no seed match requirement, II) seed match requirement, and III) conserved seed match requirement. TargetSpy predictions for classes II and III are generated by appropriate postfiltering. On a human dataset revealing fold-change in protein production for five selected microRNAs our method shows superior performance in all classes. In Drosophila melanogaster not only our class II and III predictions are on par with other algorithms, but notably the class I (no-seed) predictions are just marginally less accurate. We estimate that TargetSpy predicts between 26 and 112 functional target sites without a seed match per microRNA that are missed by all other currently available algorithms. Only a few algorithms can predict target sites without demanding a seed match and TargetSpy demonstrates a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy in that class. Furthermore, when conservation and the presence of a seed match are required, the performance is comparable with state-of-the-art algorithms. TargetSpy was trained on mouse and performs well in human and drosophila

TargetSpy: a supervised machine learning approach for microRNA target prediction

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Langenberger David

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Virtually all currently available microRNA target site prediction algorithms require the presence of a (conserved seed match to the 5' end of the microRNA. Recently however, it has been shown that this requirement might be too stringent, leading to a substantial number of missed target sites. Results We developed TargetSpy, a novel computational approach for predicting target sites regardless of the presence of a seed match. It is based on machine learning and automatic feature selection using a wide spectrum of compositional, structural, and base pairing features covering current biological knowledge. Our model does not rely on evolutionary conservation, which allows the detection of species-specific interactions and makes TargetSpy suitable for analyzing unconserved genomic sequences. In order to allow for an unbiased comparison of TargetSpy to other methods, we classified all algorithms into three groups: I no seed match requirement, II seed match requirement, and III conserved seed match requirement. TargetSpy predictions for classes II and III are generated by appropriate postfiltering. On a human dataset revealing fold-change in protein production for five selected microRNAs our method shows superior performance in all classes. In Drosophila melanogaster not only our class II and III predictions are on par with other algorithms, but notably the class I (no-seed predictions are just marginally less accurate. We estimate that TargetSpy predicts between 26 and 112 functional target sites without a seed match per microRNA that are missed by all other currently available algorithms. Conclusion Only a few algorithms can predict target sites without demanding a seed match and TargetSpy demonstrates a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy in that class. Furthermore, when conservation and the presence of a seed match are required, the performance is comparable with state-of-the-art algorithms. TargetSpy was trained on

Machine Learning Methods to Predict Density Functional Theory B3LYP Energies of HOMO and LUMO Orbitals.

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Pereira, Florbela; Xiao, Kaixia; Latino, Diogo A R S; Wu, Chengcheng; Zhang, Qingyou; Aires-de-Sousa, Joao

2017-01-23

Machine learning algorithms were explored for the fast estimation of HOMO and LUMO orbital energies calculated by DFT B3LYP, on the basis of molecular descriptors exclusively based on connectivity. The whole project involved the retrieval and generation of molecular structures, quantum chemical calculations for a database with >111 000 structures, development of new molecular descriptors, and training/validation of machine learning models. Several machine learning algorithms were screened, and an applicability domain was defined based on Euclidean distances to the training set. Random forest models predicted an external test set of 9989 compounds achieving mean absolute error (MAE) up to 0.15 and 0.16 eV for the HOMO and LUMO orbitals, respectively. The impact of the quantum chemical calculation protocol was assessed with a subset of compounds. Inclusion of the orbital energy calculated by PM7 as an additional descriptor significantly improved the quality of estimations (reducing the MAE in >30%).

A Hybrid Supervised/Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach to Solar Flare Prediction

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Benvenuto, Federico; Piana, Michele; Campi, Cristina; Massone, Anna Maria

2018-01-01

This paper introduces a novel method for flare forecasting, combining prediction accuracy with the ability to identify the most relevant predictive variables. This result is obtained by means of a two-step approach: first, a supervised regularization method for regression, namely, LASSO is applied, where a sparsity-enhancing penalty term allows the identification of the significance with which each data feature contributes to the prediction; then, an unsupervised fuzzy clustering technique for classification, namely, Fuzzy C-Means, is applied, where the regression outcome is partitioned through the minimization of a cost function and without focusing on the optimization of a specific skill score. This approach is therefore hybrid, since it combines supervised and unsupervised learning; realizes classification in an automatic, skill-score-independent way; and provides effective prediction performances even in the case of imbalanced data sets. Its prediction power is verified against NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data, using as a test set, data in the range between 1996 August and 2010 December and as training set, data in the range between 1988 December and 1996 June. To validate the method, we computed several skill scores typically utilized in flare prediction and compared the values provided by the hybrid approach with the ones provided by several standard (non-hybrid) machine learning methods. The results showed that the hybrid approach performs classification better than all other supervised methods and with an effectiveness comparable to the one of clustering methods; but, in addition, it provides a reliable ranking of the weights with which the data properties contribute to the forecast.

Comparison of four statistical and machine learning methods for crash severity prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh; Khattak, Aemal

2017-11-01

Crash severity prediction models enable different agencies to predict the severity of a reported crash with unknown severity or the severity of crashes that may be expected to occur sometime in the future. This paper had three main objectives: comparison of the performance of four statistical and machine learning methods including Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF), in predicting traffic crash severity; developing a crash costs-based approach for comparison of crash severity prediction methods; and investigating the effects of data clustering methods comprising K-means Clustering (KC) and Latent Class Clustering (LCC), on the performance of crash severity prediction models. The 2012-2015 reported crash data from Nebraska, United States was obtained and two-vehicle crashes were extracted as the analysis data. The dataset was split into training/estimation (2012-2014) and validation (2015) subsets. The four prediction methods were trained/estimated using the training/estimation dataset and the correct prediction rates for each crash severity level, overall correct prediction rate and a proposed crash costs-based accuracy measure were obtained for the validation dataset. The correct prediction rates and the proposed approach showed NNC had the best prediction performance in overall and in more severe crashes. RF and SVM had the next two sufficient performances and MNL was the weakest method. Data clustering did not affect the prediction results of SVM, but KC improved the prediction performance of MNL, NNC and RF, while LCC caused improvement in MNL and RF but weakened the performance of NNC. Overall correct prediction rate had almost the exact opposite results compared to the proposed approach, showing that neglecting the crash costs can lead to misjudgment in choosing the right prediction method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Employability and Related Context Prediction Framework for University Graduands: A Machine Learning Approach

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Manushi P. Wijayapala

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In Sri Lanka (SL, graduands’ employability remains a national issue due to the increasing number of graduates produced by higher education institutions each year. Thus, predicting the employability of university graduands can mitigate this issue since graduands can identify what qualifications or skills they need to strengthen up in order to find a job of their desired field with a good salary, before they complete the degree. The main objective of the study is to discover the plausibility of applying machine learning approach efficiently and effectively towards predicting the employability and related context of university graduands in Sri Lanka by proposing an architectural framework which consists of four modules; employment status prediction, job salary prediction, job field prediction and job relevance prediction of graduands while also comparing performance of classification algorithms under each prediction module. Series of machine learning algorithms such as C4.5, Naïve Bayes and AODE have been experimented on the Graduand Employment Census - 2014 data. A pre-processing step is proposed to overcome challenges embedded in graduand employability data and a feature selection process is proposed in order to reduce computational complexity. Additionally, parameter tuning is also done to get the most optimized parameters. More importantly, this study utilizes several types of Sampling (Oversampling, Undersampling and Ensemble (Bagging, Boosting, RF techniques as well as a newly proposed hybrid approach to overcome the limitations caused by the class imbalance phenomena. For the validation purposes, a wide range of evaluation measures was used to analyze the effectiveness of applying classification algorithms and class imbalance mitigation techniques on the dataset. The experimented results indicated that RandomForest has recorded the highest classification performance for 3 modules, achieving the selected best predictive models under hybrid

Can machine learning explain human learning?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vahdat, M.; Oneto, L.; Anguita, D.; Funk, M.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.

2016-01-01

Learning Analytics (LA) has a major interest in exploring and understanding the learning process of humans and, for this purpose, benefits from both Cognitive Science, which studies how humans learn, and Machine Learning, which studies how algorithms learn from data. Usually, Machine Learning is

Heart Failure: Diagnosis, Severity Estimation and Prediction of Adverse Events Through Machine Learning Techniques

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Evanthia E. Tripoliti

Full Text Available Heart failure is a serious condition with high prevalence (about 2% in the adult population in developed countries, and more than 8% in patients older than 75 years. About 3–5% of hospital admissions are linked with heart failure incidents. Heart failure is the first cause of admission by healthcare professionals in their clinical practice. The costs are very high, reaching up to 2% of the total health costs in the developed countries. Building an effective disease management strategy requires analysis of large amount of data, early detection of the disease, assessment of the severity and early prediction of adverse events. This will inhibit the progression of the disease, will improve the quality of life of the patients and will reduce the associated medical costs. Toward this direction machine learning techniques have been employed. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-the-art of the machine learning methodologies applied for the assessment of heart failure. More specifically, models predicting the presence, estimating the subtype, assessing the severity of heart failure and predicting the presence of adverse events, such as destabilizations, re-hospitalizations, and mortality are presented. According to the authors' knowledge, it is the first time that such a comprehensive review, focusing on all aspects of the management of heart failure, is presented. Keywords: Heart failure, Diagnosis, Prediction, Severity estimation, Classification, Data mining

Machine Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chikkagoudar, Satish; Chatterjee, Samrat; Thomas, Dennis G.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Muller, George

2017-04-21

The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networks and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.

Studying depression using imaging and machine learning methods

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Meenal J. Patel

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Depression is a complex clinical entity that can pose challenges for clinicians regarding both accurate diagnosis and effective timely treatment. These challenges have prompted the development of multiple machine learning methods to help improve the management of this disease. These methods utilize anatomical and physiological data acquired from neuroimaging to create models that can identify depressed patients vs. non-depressed patients and predict treatment outcomes. This article (1 presents a background on depression, imaging, and machine learning methodologies; (2 reviews methodologies of past studies that have used imaging and machine learning to study depression; and (3 suggests directions for future depression-related studies.

A review of supervised machine learning applied to ageing research.

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Fabris, Fabio; Magalhães, João Pedro de; Freitas, Alex A

2017-04-01

Broadly speaking, supervised machine learning is the computational task of learning correlations between variables in annotated data (the training set), and using this information to create a predictive model capable of inferring annotations for new data, whose annotations are not known. Ageing is a complex process that affects nearly all animal species. This process can be studied at several levels of abstraction, in different organisms and with different objectives in mind. Not surprisingly, the diversity of the supervised machine learning algorithms applied to answer biological questions reflects the complexities of the underlying ageing processes being studied. Many works using supervised machine learning to study the ageing process have been recently published, so it is timely to review these works, to discuss their main findings and weaknesses. In summary, the main findings of the reviewed papers are: the link between specific types of DNA repair and ageing; ageing-related proteins tend to be highly connected and seem to play a central role in molecular pathways; ageing/longevity is linked with autophagy and apoptosis, nutrient receptor genes, and copper and iron ion transport. Additionally, several biomarkers of ageing were found by machine learning. Despite some interesting machine learning results, we also identified a weakness of current works on this topic: only one of the reviewed papers has corroborated the computational results of machine learning algorithms through wet-lab experiments. In conclusion, supervised machine learning has contributed to advance our knowledge and has provided novel insights on ageing, yet future work should have a greater emphasis in validating the predictions.

MU-LOC: A Machine-Learning Method for Predicting Mitochondrially Localized Proteins in Plants

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Ning Zhang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Targeting and translocation of proteins to the appropriate subcellular compartments are crucial for cell organization and function. Newly synthesized proteins are transported to mitochondria with the assistance of complex targeting sequences containing either an N-terminal pre-sequence or a multitude of internal signals. Compared with experimental approaches, computational predictions provide an efficient way to infer subcellular localization of a protein. However, it is still challenging to predict plant mitochondrially localized proteins accurately due to various limitations. Consequently, the performance of current tools can be improved with new data and new machine-learning methods. We present MU-LOC, a novel computational approach for large-scale prediction of plant mitochondrial proteins. We collected a comprehensive dataset of plant subcellular localization, extracted features including amino acid composition, protein position weight matrix, and gene co-expression information, and trained predictors using deep neural network and support vector machine. Benchmarked on two independent datasets, MU-LOC achieved substantial improvements over six state-of-the-art tools for plant mitochondrial targeting prediction. In addition, MU-LOC has the advantage of predicting plant mitochondrial proteins either possessing or lacking N-terminal pre-sequences. We applied MU-LOC to predict candidate mitochondrial proteins for the whole proteome of Arabidopsis and potato. MU-LOC is publicly available at http://mu-loc.org.

Non-linear dynamical signal characterization for prediction of defibrillation success through machine learning

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Shandilya Sharad

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Ventricular Fibrillation (VF is a common presenting dysrhythmia in the setting of cardiac arrest whose main treatment is defibrillation through direct current countershock to achieve return of spontaneous circulation. However, often defibrillation is unsuccessful and may even lead to the transition of VF to more nefarious rhythms such as asystole or pulseless electrical activity. Multiple methods have been proposed for predicting defibrillation success based on examination of the VF waveform. To date, however, no analytical technique has been widely accepted. We developed a unique approach of computational VF waveform analysis, with and without addition of the signal of end-tidal carbon dioxide (PetCO2, using advanced machine learning algorithms. We compare these results with those obtained using the Amplitude Spectral Area (AMSA technique. Methods A total of 90 pre-countershock ECG signals were analyzed form an accessible preshosptial cardiac arrest database. A unified predictive model, based on signal processing and machine learning, was developed with time-series and dual-tree complex wavelet transform features. Upon selection of correlated variables, a parametrically optimized support vector machine (SVM model was trained for predicting outcomes on the test sets. Training and testing was performed with nested 10-fold cross validation and 6–10 features for each test fold. Results The integrative model performs real-time, short-term (7.8 second analysis of the Electrocardiogram (ECG. For a total of 90 signals, 34 successful and 56 unsuccessful defibrillations were classified with an average Accuracy and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC Area Under the Curve (AUC of 82.2% and 85%, respectively. Incorporation of the end-tidal carbon dioxide signal boosted Accuracy and ROC AUC to 83.3% and 93.8%, respectively, for a smaller dataset containing 48 signals. VF analysis using AMSA resulted in accuracy and ROC AUC of 64

Using social media and machine learning to predict financial performance of a company

OpenAIRE

Forouzani, Sepehr

2016-01-01

Social media have recently become one of the most popular communicating form of media for numerous number of people. the text and posts shared on social media is widely used by researcher to analyze, study and relate them to various fields. In this master thesis, sentiment analysis has been performed on posts containing information about two companies that are shared on Twitter, and machine learning algorithms has been used to predict the financial performance of these companies.

Image Classification, Deep Learning and Convolutional Neural Networks : A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Frameworks

OpenAIRE

Airola, Rasmus; Hager, Kristoffer

2017-01-01

The use of machine learning and specifically neural networks is a growing trend in software development, and has grown immensely in the last couple of years in the light of an increasing need to handle big data and large information flows. Machine learning has a broad area of application, such as human-computer interaction, predicting stock prices, real-time translation, and self driving vehicles. Large companies such as Microsoft and Google have already implemented machine learning in some o...

Predictive ability of machine learning methods for massive crop yield prediction

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Alberto Gonzalez-Sanchez

2014-04-01

Full Text Available An important issue for agricultural planning purposes is the accurate yield estimation for the numerous crops involved in the planning. Machine learning (ML is an essential approach for achieving practical and effective solutions for this problem. Many comparisons of ML methods for yield prediction have been made, seeking for the most accurate technique. Generally, the number of evaluated crops and techniques is too low and does not provide enough information for agricultural planning purposes. This paper compares the predictive accuracy of ML and linear regression techniques for crop yield prediction in ten crop datasets. Multiple linear regression, M5-Prime regression trees, perceptron multilayer neural networks, support vector regression and k-nearest neighbor methods were ranked. Four accuracy metrics were used to validate the models: the root mean square error (RMS, root relative square error (RRSE, normalized mean absolute error (MAE, and correlation factor (R. Real data of an irrigation zone of Mexico were used for building the models. Models were tested with samples of two consecutive years. The results show that M5-Prime and k-nearest neighbor techniques obtain the lowest average RMSE errors (5.14 and 4.91, the lowest RRSE errors (79.46% and 79.78%, the lowest average MAE errors (18.12% and 19.42%, and the highest average correlation factors (0.41 and 0.42. Since M5-Prime achieves the largest number of crop yield models with the lowest errors, it is a very suitable tool for massive crop yield prediction in agricultural planning.

Application of Machine Learning to Rotorcraft Health Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Cody, Tyler; Dempsey, Paula J.

2017-01-01

Machine learning is a powerful tool for data exploration and model building with large data sets. This project aimed to use machine learning techniques to explore the inherent structure of data from rotorcraft gear tests, relationships between features and damage states, and to build a system for predicting gear health for future rotorcraft transmission applications. Classical machine learning techniques are difficult, if not irresponsible to apply to time series data because many make the assumption of independence between samples. To overcome this, Hidden Markov Models were used to create a binary classifier for identifying scuffing transitions and Recurrent Neural Networks were used to leverage long distance relationships in predicting discrete damage states. When combined in a workflow, where the binary classifier acted as a filter for the fatigue monitor, the system was able to demonstrate accuracy in damage state prediction and scuffing identification. The time dependent nature of the data restricted data exploration to collecting and analyzing data from the model selection process. The limited amount of available data was unable to give useful information, and the division of training and testing sets tended to heavily influence the scores of the models across combinations of features and hyper-parameters. This work built a framework for tracking scuffing and fatigue on streaming data and demonstrates that machine learning has much to offer rotorcraft health monitoring by using Bayesian learning and deep learning methods to capture the time dependent nature of the data. Suggested future work is to implement the framework developed in this project using a larger variety of data sets to test the generalization capabilities of the models and allow for data exploration.

The Prediction of Yarn Elongation of Kenyan Ring-Spun Yarn using Extreme Learning Machines (ELM

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Josphat Igadwa Mwasiagi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The optimization of the manufacture of cotton yarns involves several processes, while the prediction of yarn quality parameters forms an important area of investigation. This research work concentrated on the prediction of cotton yarn elongation. Cotton lint and yarn samples were collected in textile factories in Kenya.The collected samples were tested under standard testing conditions. Cotton lint parameters, machine parameters and yarn elongation were used to design yarn elongation prediction models. The elongation prediction models used three network training algorithms, including backpropagation (BP, an extreme learning machine (ELM, and a hybrid of differential evolution (DE and an ELM referred to as DE-ELM. The prediction models recorded a mean squared error (mse value of 0.001 using 11, 43 and 2 neurons in the hidden layer for the BP, ELM and DE-ELM models respectively. The ELM models exhibited faster training speeds than the BP algorithms, but required more neurons in the hidden layer than other models. The DEELM hybrid algorithm was faster than the BP algorithm, but slower than the ELM algorithm.

Machine Learning of Fault Friction

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, P. A.; Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Marone, C.; Guyer, R. A.

2017-12-01

We are applying machine learning (ML) techniques to continuous acoustic emission (AE) data from laboratory earthquake experiments. Our goal is to apply explicit ML methods to this acoustic datathe AE in order to infer frictional properties of a laboratory fault. The experiment is a double direct shear apparatus comprised of fault blocks surrounding fault gouge comprised of glass beads or quartz powder. Fault characteristics are recorded, including shear stress, applied load (bulk friction = shear stress/normal load) and shear velocity. The raw acoustic signal is continuously recorded. We rely on explicit decision tree approaches (Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Trees) that allow us to identify important features linked to the fault friction. A training procedure that employs both the AE and the recorded shear stress from the experiment is first conducted. Then, testing takes place on data the algorithm has never seen before, using only the continuous AE signal. We find that these methods provide rich information regarding frictional processes during slip (Rouet-Leduc et al., 2017a; Hulbert et al., 2017). In addition, similar machine learning approaches predict failure times, as well as slip magnitudes in some cases. We find that these methods work for both stick slip and slow slip experiments, for periodic slip and for aperiodic slip. We also derive a fundamental relationship between the AE and the friction describing the frictional behavior of any earthquake slip cycle in a given experiment (Rouet-Leduc et al., 2017b). Our goal is to ultimately scale these approaches to Earth geophysical data to probe fault friction. References Rouet-Leduc, B., C. Hulbert, N. Lubbers, K. Barros, C. Humphreys and P. A. Johnson, Machine learning predicts laboratory earthquakes, in review (2017). https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.05774Rouet-LeDuc, B. et al., Friction Laws Derived From the Acoustic Emissions of a Laboratory Fault by Machine Learning (2017), AGU Fall Meeting Session S025

Is Romantic Desire Predictable? Machine Learning Applied to Initial Romantic Attraction.

Science.gov (United States)

Joel, Samantha; Eastwick, Paul W; Finkel, Eli J

2017-10-01

Matchmaking companies and theoretical perspectives on close relationships suggest that initial attraction is, to some extent, a product of two people's self-reported traits and preferences. We used machine learning to test how well such measures predict people's overall tendencies to romantically desire other people (actor variance) and to be desired by other people (partner variance), as well as people's desire for specific partners above and beyond actor and partner variance (relationship variance). In two speed-dating studies, romantically unattached individuals completed more than 100 self-report measures about traits and preferences that past researchers have identified as being relevant to mate selection. Each participant met each opposite-sex participant attending a speed-dating event for a 4-min speed date. Random forests models predicted 4% to 18% of actor variance and 7% to 27% of partner variance; crucially, however, they were unable to predict relationship variance using any combination of traits and preferences reported before the dates. These results suggest that compatibility elements of human mating are challenging to predict before two people meet.

Improving the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Complex Tropical Mountain Landscape by Methodological Specifications in Machine Learning Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Ließ, Mareike; Schmidt, Johannes; Glaser, Bruno

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are significant carbon sinks and their soils' carbon storage potential is immense. However, little is known about the soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of tropical mountain areas whose complex soil-landscape and difficult accessibility pose a challenge to spatial analysis. The choice of methodology for spatial prediction is of high importance to improve the expected poor model results in case of low predictor-response correlations. Four aspects were considered to improve model performance in predicting SOC stocks of the organic layer of a tropical mountain forest landscape: Different spatial predictor settings, predictor selection strategies, various machine learning algorithms and model tuning. Five machine learning algorithms: random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees and support vector machines were trained and tuned to predict SOC stocks from predictors derived from a digital elevation model and satellite image. Topographical predictors were calculated with a GIS search radius of 45 to 615 m. Finally, three predictor selection strategies were applied to the total set of 236 predictors. All machine learning algorithms-including the model tuning and predictor selection-were compared via five repetitions of a tenfold cross-validation. The boosted regression tree algorithm resulted in the overall best model. SOC stocks ranged between 0.2 to 17.7 kg m-2, displaying a huge variability with diffuse insolation and curvatures of different scale guiding the spatial pattern. Predictor selection and model tuning improved the models' predictive performance in all five machine learning algorithms. The rather low number of selected predictors favours forward compared to backward selection procedures. Choosing predictors due to their indiviual performance was vanquished by the two procedures which accounted for predictor interaction.

Trip Travel Time Forecasting Based on Selective Forgetting Extreme Learning Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiming Gui

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Travel time estimation on road networks is a valuable traffic metric. In this paper, we propose a machine learning based method for trip travel time estimation in road networks. The method uses the historical trip information extracted from taxis trace data as the training data. An optimized online sequential extreme machine, selective forgetting extreme learning machine, is adopted to make the prediction. Its selective forgetting learning ability enables the prediction algorithm to adapt to trip conditions changes well. Experimental results using real-life taxis trace data show that the forecasting model provides an effective and practical way for the travel time forecasting.

Infinite ensemble of support vector machines for prediction of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Many researchers have demonstrated the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict musculoskeletal disorders risk associated with occupational exposures. In order to improve the accuracy of LBDs risk classification, this paper proposes to use the support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning algorithm used ...

Machine Learning and Radiology

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shijun; Summers, Ronald M.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we give a short introduction to machine learning and survey its applications in radiology. We focused on six categories of applications in radiology: medical image segmentation, registration, computer aided detection and diagnosis, brain function or activity analysis and neurological disease diagnosis from fMR images, content-based image retrieval systems for CT or MRI images, and text analysis of radiology reports using natural language processing (NLP) and natural language understanding (NLU). This survey shows that machine learning plays a key role in many radiology applications. Machine learning identifies complex patterns automatically and helps radiologists make intelligent decisions on radiology data such as conventional radiographs, CT, MRI, and PET images and radiology reports. In many applications, the performance of machine learning-based automatic detection and diagnosis systems has shown to be comparable to that of a well-trained and experienced radiologist. Technology development in machine learning and radiology will benefit from each other in the long run. Key contributions and common characteristics of machine learning techniques in radiology are discussed. We also discuss the problem of translating machine learning applications to the radiology clinical setting, including advantages and potential barriers. PMID:22465077

Promises of Machine Learning Approaches in Prediction of Absorption of Compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Rajnish; Sharma, Anju; Siddiqui, Mohammed Haris; Tiwari, Rajesh Kumar

2018-01-01

The Machine Learning (ML) is one of the fastest developing techniques in the prediction and evaluation of important pharmacokinetic properties such as absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion. The availability of a large number of robust validation techniques for prediction models devoted to pharmacokinetics has significantly enhanced the trust and authenticity in ML approaches. There is a series of prediction models generated and used for rapid screening of compounds on the basis of absorption in last one decade. Prediction of absorption of compounds using ML models has great potential across the pharmaceutical industry as a non-animal alternative to predict absorption. However, these prediction models still have to go far ahead to develop the confidence similar to conventional experimental methods for estimation of drug absorption. Some of the general concerns are selection of appropriate ML methods and validation techniques in addition to selecting relevant descriptors and authentic data sets for the generation of prediction models. The current review explores published models of ML for the prediction of absorption using physicochemical properties as descriptors and their important conclusions. In addition, some critical challenges in acceptance of ML models for absorption are also discussed. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Prediction of Machine Tool Condition Using Support Vector Machine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Peigong; Meng Qingfeng; Zhao Jian; Li Junjie; Wang Xiufeng

2011-01-01

Condition monitoring and predicting of CNC machine tools are investigated in this paper. Considering the CNC machine tools are often small numbers of samples, a condition predicting method for CNC machine tools based on support vector machines (SVMs) is proposed, then one-step and multi-step condition prediction models are constructed. The support vector machines prediction models are used to predict the trends of working condition of a certain type of CNC worm wheel and gear grinding machine by applying sequence data of vibration signal, which is collected during machine processing. And the relationship between different eigenvalue in CNC vibration signal and machining quality is discussed. The test result shows that the trend of vibration signal Peak-to-peak value in surface normal direction is most relevant to the trend of surface roughness value. In trends prediction of working condition, support vector machine has higher prediction accuracy both in the short term ('One-step') and long term (multi-step) prediction compared to autoregressive (AR) model and the RBF neural network. Experimental results show that it is feasible to apply support vector machine to CNC machine tool condition prediction.

Machine learning and radiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shijun; Summers, Ronald M

2012-07-01

In this paper, we give a short introduction to machine learning and survey its applications in radiology. We focused on six categories of applications in radiology: medical image segmentation, registration, computer aided detection and diagnosis, brain function or activity analysis and neurological disease diagnosis from fMR images, content-based image retrieval systems for CT or MRI images, and text analysis of radiology reports using natural language processing (NLP) and natural language understanding (NLU). This survey shows that machine learning plays a key role in many radiology applications. Machine learning identifies complex patterns automatically and helps radiologists make intelligent decisions on radiology data such as conventional radiographs, CT, MRI, and PET images and radiology reports. In many applications, the performance of machine learning-based automatic detection and diagnosis systems has shown to be comparable to that of a well-trained and experienced radiologist. Technology development in machine learning and radiology will benefit from each other in the long run. Key contributions and common characteristics of machine learning techniques in radiology are discussed. We also discuss the problem of translating machine learning applications to the radiology clinical setting, including advantages and potential barriers. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

PredPsych: A toolbox for predictive machine learning based approach in experimental psychology research

OpenAIRE

Cavallo, Andrea; Becchio, Cristina; Koul, Atesh

2016-01-01

Recent years have seen an increased interest in machine learning based predictive methods for analysing quantitative behavioural data in experimental psychology. While these methods can achieve relatively greater sensitivity compared to conventional univariate techniques, they still lack an established and accessible software framework. The goal of this work was to build an open-source toolbox – “PredPsych” – that could make these methods readily available to all psychologists. PredPsych is a...

Machine learning with R

CERN Document Server

Lantz, Brett

2013-01-01

Written as a tutorial to explore and understand the power of R for machine learning. This practical guide that covers all of the need to know topics in a very systematic way. For each machine learning approach, each step in the process is detailed, from preparing the data for analysis to evaluating the results. These steps will build the knowledge you need to apply them to your own data science tasks.Intended for those who want to learn how to use R's machine learning capabilities and gain insight from your data. Perhaps you already know a bit about machine learning, but have never used R; or

Mastering machine learning with scikit-learn

CERN Document Server

Hackeling, Gavin

2014-01-01

If you are a software developer who wants to learn how machine learning models work and how to apply them effectively, this book is for you. Familiarity with machine learning fundamentals and Python will be helpful, but is not essential.

A comparison of machine learning techniques for survival prediction in breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanneschi, Leonardo; Farinaccio, Antonella; Mauri, Giancarlo; Antoniotti, Mauro; Provero, Paolo; Giacobini, Mario

2011-05-11

The ability to accurately classify cancer patients into risk classes, i.e. to predict the outcome of the pathology on an individual basis, is a key ingredient in making therapeutic decisions. In recent years gene expression data have been successfully used to complement the clinical and histological criteria traditionally used in such prediction. Many "gene expression signatures" have been developed, i.e. sets of genes whose expression values in a tumor can be used to predict the outcome of the pathology. Here we investigate the use of several machine learning techniques to classify breast cancer patients using one of such signatures, the well established 70-gene signature. We show that Genetic Programming performs significantly better than Support Vector Machines, Multilayered Perceptrons and Random Forests in classifying patients from the NKI breast cancer dataset, and comparably to the scoring-based method originally proposed by the authors of the 70-gene signature. Furthermore, Genetic Programming is able to perform an automatic feature selection. Since the performance of Genetic Programming is likely to be improvable compared to the out-of-the-box approach used here, and given the biological insight potentially provided by the Genetic Programming solutions, we conclude that Genetic Programming methods are worth further investigation as a tool for cancer patient classification based on gene expression data.

A comparison of machine learning techniques for survival prediction in breast cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanneschi Leonardo

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to accurately classify cancer patients into risk classes, i.e. to predict the outcome of the pathology on an individual basis, is a key ingredient in making therapeutic decisions. In recent years gene expression data have been successfully used to complement the clinical and histological criteria traditionally used in such prediction. Many "gene expression signatures" have been developed, i.e. sets of genes whose expression values in a tumor can be used to predict the outcome of the pathology. Here we investigate the use of several machine learning techniques to classify breast cancer patients using one of such signatures, the well established 70-gene signature. Results We show that Genetic Programming performs significantly better than Support Vector Machines, Multilayered Perceptrons and Random Forests in classifying patients from the NKI breast cancer dataset, and comparably to the scoring-based method originally proposed by the authors of the 70-gene signature. Furthermore, Genetic Programming is able to perform an automatic feature selection. Conclusions Since the performance of Genetic Programming is likely to be improvable compared to the out-of-the-box approach used here, and given the biological insight potentially provided by the Genetic Programming solutions, we conclude that Genetic Programming methods are worth further investigation as a tool for cancer patient classification based on gene expression data.

Novel Automatic Filter-Class Feature Selection for Machine Learning Regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wollsen, Morten Gill; Hallam, John; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2017-01-01

With the increased focus on application of Big Data in all sectors of society, the performance of machine learning becomes essential. Efficient machine learning depends on efficient feature selection algorithms. Filter feature selection algorithms are model-free and therefore very fast, but require...... model in the feature selection process. PCA is often used in machine learning litterature and can be considered the default feature selection method. RDESF outperformed PCA in both experiments in both prediction error and computational speed. RDESF is a new step into filter-based automatic feature...

Machine learning a probabilistic perspective

CERN Document Server

Murphy, Kevin P

2012-01-01

Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic method...

Acceleration of saddle-point searches with machine learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, Andrew A., E-mail: andrew-peterson@brown.edu [School of Engineering, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912 (United States)

2016-08-21

In atomistic simulations, the location of the saddle point on the potential-energy surface (PES) gives important information on transitions between local minima, for example, via transition-state theory. However, the search for saddle points often involves hundreds or thousands of ab initio force calls, which are typically all done at full accuracy. This results in the vast majority of the computational effort being spent calculating the electronic structure of states not important to the researcher, and very little time performing the calculation of the saddle point state itself. In this work, we describe how machine learning (ML) can reduce the number of intermediate ab initio calculations needed to locate saddle points. Since machine-learning models can learn from, and thus mimic, atomistic simulations, the saddle-point search can be conducted rapidly in the machine-learning representation. The saddle-point prediction can then be verified by an ab initio calculation; if it is incorrect, this strategically has identified regions of the PES where the machine-learning representation has insufficient training data. When these training data are used to improve the machine-learning model, the estimates greatly improve. This approach can be systematized, and in two simple example problems we demonstrate a dramatic reduction in the number of ab initio force calls. We expect that this approach and future refinements will greatly accelerate searches for saddle points, as well as other searches on the potential energy surface, as machine-learning methods see greater adoption by the atomistics community.

Acceleration of saddle-point searches with machine learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, Andrew A.

2016-01-01

In atomistic simulations, the location of the saddle point on the potential-energy surface (PES) gives important information on transitions between local minima, for example, via transition-state theory. However, the search for saddle points often involves hundreds or thousands of ab initio force calls, which are typically all done at full accuracy. This results in the vast majority of the computational effort being spent calculating the electronic structure of states not important to the researcher, and very little time performing the calculation of the saddle point state itself. In this work, we describe how machine learning (ML) can reduce the number of intermediate ab initio calculations needed to locate saddle points. Since machine-learning models can learn from, and thus mimic, atomistic simulations, the saddle-point search can be conducted rapidly in the machine-learning representation. The saddle-point prediction can then be verified by an ab initio calculation; if it is incorrect, this strategically has identified regions of the PES where the machine-learning representation has insufficient training data. When these training data are used to improve the machine-learning model, the estimates greatly improve. This approach can be systematized, and in two simple example problems we demonstrate a dramatic reduction in the number of ab initio force calls. We expect that this approach and future refinements will greatly accelerate searches for saddle points, as well as other searches on the potential energy surface, as machine-learning methods see greater adoption by the atomistics community.

Acceleration of saddle-point searches with machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Andrew A

2016-08-21

In atomistic simulations, the location of the saddle point on the potential-energy surface (PES) gives important information on transitions between local minima, for example, via transition-state theory. However, the search for saddle points often involves hundreds or thousands of ab initio force calls, which are typically all done at full accuracy. This results in the vast majority of the computational effort being spent calculating the electronic structure of states not important to the researcher, and very little time performing the calculation of the saddle point state itself. In this work, we describe how machine learning (ML) can reduce the number of intermediate ab initio calculations needed to locate saddle points. Since machine-learning models can learn from, and thus mimic, atomistic simulations, the saddle-point search can be conducted rapidly in the machine-learning representation. The saddle-point prediction can then be verified by an ab initio calculation; if it is incorrect, this strategically has identified regions of the PES where the machine-learning representation has insufficient training data. When these training data are used to improve the machine-learning model, the estimates greatly improve. This approach can be systematized, and in two simple example problems we demonstrate a dramatic reduction in the number of ab initio force calls. We expect that this approach and future refinements will greatly accelerate searches for saddle points, as well as other searches on the potential energy surface, as machine-learning methods see greater adoption by the atomistics community.

Improving the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Complex Tropical Mountain Landscape by Methodological Specifications in Machine Learning Approaches.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mareike Ließ

Full Text Available Tropical forests are significant carbon sinks and their soils' carbon storage potential is immense. However, little is known about the soil organic carbon (SOC stocks of tropical mountain areas whose complex soil-landscape and difficult accessibility pose a challenge to spatial analysis. The choice of methodology for spatial prediction is of high importance to improve the expected poor model results in case of low predictor-response correlations. Four aspects were considered to improve model performance in predicting SOC stocks of the organic layer of a tropical mountain forest landscape: Different spatial predictor settings, predictor selection strategies, various machine learning algorithms and model tuning. Five machine learning algorithms: random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees and support vector machines were trained and tuned to predict SOC stocks from predictors derived from a digital elevation model and satellite image. Topographical predictors were calculated with a GIS search radius of 45 to 615 m. Finally, three predictor selection strategies were applied to the total set of 236 predictors. All machine learning algorithms-including the model tuning and predictor selection-were compared via five repetitions of a tenfold cross-validation. The boosted regression tree algorithm resulted in the overall best model. SOC stocks ranged between 0.2 to 17.7 kg m-2, displaying a huge variability with diffuse insolation and curvatures of different scale guiding the spatial pattern. Predictor selection and model tuning improved the models' predictive performance in all five machine learning algorithms. The rather low number of selected predictors favours forward compared to backward selection procedures. Choosing predictors due to their indiviual performance was vanquished by the two procedures which accounted for predictor interaction.

SOLAR FLARE PREDICTION USING SDO/HMI VECTOR MAGNETIC FIELD DATA WITH A MACHINE-LEARNING ALGORITHM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bobra, M. G.; Couvidat, S.

2015-01-01

We attempt to forecast M- and X-class solar flares using a machine-learning algorithm, called support vector machine (SVM), and four years of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, the first instrument to continuously map the full-disk photospheric vector magnetic field from space. Most flare forecasting efforts described in the literature use either line-of-sight magnetograms or a relatively small number of ground-based vector magnetograms. This is the first time a large data set of vector magnetograms has been used to forecast solar flares. We build a catalog of flaring and non-flaring active regions sampled from a database of 2071 active regions, comprised of 1.5 million active region patches of vector magnetic field data, and characterize each active region by 25 parameters. We then train and test the machine-learning algorithm and we estimate its performances using forecast verification metrics with an emphasis on the true skill statistic (TSS). We obtain relatively high TSS scores and overall predictive abilities. We surmise that this is partly due to fine-tuning the SVM for this purpose and also to an advantageous set of features that can only be calculated from vector magnetic field data. We also apply a feature selection algorithm to determine which of our 25 features are useful for discriminating between flaring and non-flaring active regions and conclude that only a handful are needed for good predictive abilities

Learning scikit-learn machine learning in Python

CERN Document Server

Garreta, Raúl

2013-01-01

The book adopts a tutorial-based approach to introduce the user to Scikit-learn.If you are a programmer who wants to explore machine learning and data-based methods to build intelligent applications and enhance your programming skills, this the book for you. No previous experience with machine-learning algorithms is required.

Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucky eMehra

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB, caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum. The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat. Pre-planting factors tested as potential predictor variables were cultivar resistance, latitude, longitude, previous crop, seeding rate, seed treatment, tillage type, and wheat residue. Disease severity assessed at the end of the growing season was used as the response variable. The models were developed using 431 disease cases (unique combinations of predictors collected from 2012 to 2014 and these cases were randomly divided into training, validation, and test datasets. Models were evaluated based on the regression of observed against predicted severity values of SNB, sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, and the Kappa statistic. A strong relationship was observed between late-season severity of SNB and specific pre-planting factors in which latitude, longitude, wheat residue, and cultivar resistance were the most important predictors. The MR model explained 33% of variability in the data, while machine learning models explained 47 to 79% of the total variability. Similarly, the MR model correctly classified 74% of the disease cases, while machine learning models correctly classified 81 to 83% of these cases. Results show that the RF algorithm, which explained 79% of the variability within the data, was the most accurate in predicting the risk of SNB, with an accuracy rate of 93%. The RF algorithm could allow early

Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehra, Lucky K; Cowger, Christina; Gross, Kevin; Ojiambo, Peter S

2016-01-01

Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB), caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR) and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF), in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat. Pre-planting factors tested as potential predictor variables were cultivar resistance, latitude, longitude, previous crop, seeding rate, seed treatment, tillage type, and wheat residue. Disease severity assessed at the end of the growing season was used as the response variable. The models were developed using 431 disease cases (unique combinations of predictors) collected from 2012 to 2014 and these cases were randomly divided into training, validation, and test datasets. Models were evaluated based on the regression of observed against predicted severity values of SNB, sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, and the Kappa statistic. A strong relationship was observed between late-season severity of SNB and specific pre-planting factors in which latitude, longitude, wheat residue, and cultivar resistance were the most important predictors. The MR model explained 33% of variability in the data, while machine learning models explained 47 to 79% of the total variability. Similarly, the MR model correctly classified 74% of the disease cases, while machine learning models correctly classified 81 to 83% of these cases. Results show that the RF algorithm, which explained 79% of the variability within the data, was the most accurate in predicting the risk of SNB, with an accuracy rate of 93%. The RF algorithm could allow early assessment of

Optimized Extreme Learning Machine for Power System Transient Stability Prediction Using Synchrophasors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanjun Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A new optimized extreme learning machine- (ELM- based method for power system transient stability prediction (TSP using synchrophasors is presented in this paper. First, the input features symbolizing the transient stability of power systems are extracted from synchronized measurements. Then, an ELM classifier is employed to build the TSP model. And finally, the optimal parameters of the model are optimized by using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. The novelty of the proposal is in the fact that it improves the prediction performance of the ELM-based TSP model by using IPSO to optimize the parameters of the model with synchrophasors. And finally, based on the test results on both IEEE 39-bus system and a large-scale real power system, the correctness and validity of the presented approach are verified.

Development of Predictive QSAR Models of 4-Thiazolidinones Antitrypanosomal Activity using Modern Machine Learning Algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Kryshchyshyn, Anna; Devinyak, Oleg; Kaminskyy, Danylo; Grellier, Philippe; Lesyk, Roman

2017-11-14

This paper presents novel QSAR models for the prediction of antitrypanosomal activity among thiazolidines and related heterocycles. The performance of four machine learning algorithms: Random Forest regression, Stochastic gradient boosting, Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Gaussian processes regression have been studied in order to reach better levels of predictivity. The results for Random Forest and Gaussian processes regression are comparable and outperform other studied methods. The preliminary descriptor selection with Boruta method improved the outcome of machine learning methods. The two novel QSAR-models developed with Random Forest and Gaussian processes regression algorithms have good predictive ability, which was proved by the external evaluation of the test set with corresponding Q 2 ext =0.812 and Q 2 ext =0.830. The obtained models can be used further for in silico screening of virtual libraries in the same chemical domain in order to find new antitrypanosomal agents. Thorough analysis of descriptors influence in the QSAR models and interpretation of their chemical meaning allows to highlight a number of structure-activity relationships. The presence of phenyl rings with electron-withdrawing atoms or groups in para-position, increased number of aromatic rings, high branching but short chains, high HOMO energy, and the introduction of 1-substituted 2-indolyl fragment into the molecular structure have been recognized as trypanocidal activity prerequisites. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Machine Learning Techniques for Stellar Light Curve Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Hinners, Trisha A.; Tat, Kevin; Thorp, Rachel

2018-07-01

We apply machine learning techniques in an attempt to predict and classify stellar properties from noisy and sparse time-series data. We preprocessed over 94 GB of Kepler light curves from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) to classify according to 10 distinct physical properties using both representation learning and feature engineering approaches. Studies using machine learning in the field have been primarily done on simulated data, making our study one of the first to use real light-curve data for machine learning approaches. We tuned our data using previous work with simulated data as a template and achieved mixed results between the two approaches. Representation learning using a long short-term memory recurrent neural network produced no successful predictions, but our work with feature engineering was successful for both classification and regression. In particular, we were able to achieve values for stellar density, stellar radius, and effective temperature with low error (∼2%–4%) and good accuracy (∼75%) for classifying the number of transits for a given star. The results show promise for improvement for both approaches upon using larger data sets with a larger minority class. This work has the potential to provide a foundation for future tools and techniques to aid in the analysis of astrophysical data.

MoleculeNet: a benchmark for molecular machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Zhenqin; Ramsundar, Bharath; Feinberg, Evan N; Gomes, Joseph; Geniesse, Caleb; Pappu, Aneesh S; Leswing, Karl; Pande, Vijay

2018-01-14

Molecular machine learning has been maturing rapidly over the last few years. Improved methods and the presence of larger datasets have enabled machine learning algorithms to make increasingly accurate predictions about molecular properties. However, algorithmic progress has been limited due to the lack of a standard benchmark to compare the efficacy of proposed methods; most new algorithms are benchmarked on different datasets making it challenging to gauge the quality of proposed methods. This work introduces MoleculeNet, a large scale benchmark for molecular machine learning. MoleculeNet curates multiple public datasets, establishes metrics for evaluation, and offers high quality open-source implementations of multiple previously proposed molecular featurization and learning algorithms (released as part of the DeepChem open source library). MoleculeNet benchmarks demonstrate that learnable representations are powerful tools for molecular machine learning and broadly offer the best performance. However, this result comes with caveats. Learnable representations still struggle to deal with complex tasks under data scarcity and highly imbalanced classification. For quantum mechanical and biophysical datasets, the use of physics-aware featurizations can be more important than choice of particular learning algorithm.

Applying a machine learning model using a locally preserving projection based feature regeneration algorithm to predict breast cancer risk

Science.gov (United States)

Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qian, Wei; Zheng, Bin

2018-03-01

Both conventional and deep machine learning has been used to develop decision-support tools applied in medical imaging informatics. In order to take advantages of both conventional and deep learning approach, this study aims to investigate feasibility of applying a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature regeneration algorithm to build a new machine learning classifier model to predict short-term breast cancer risk. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was used to segment and quantify breast fibro-glandular tissue volume. Next, initially computed 44 image features related to the bilateral mammographic tissue density asymmetry were extracted. Then, an LLP-based feature combination method was applied to regenerate a new operational feature vector using a maximal variance approach. Last, a k-nearest neighborhood (KNN) algorithm based machine learning classifier using the LPP-generated new feature vectors was developed to predict breast cancer risk. A testing dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was used. Among them, 250 were positive and 250 remained negative in the next subsequent mammography screening. Applying to this dataset, LLP-generated feature vector reduced the number of features from 44 to 4. Using a leave-onecase-out validation method, area under ROC curve produced by the KNN classifier significantly increased from 0.62 to 0.68 (p breast cancer detected in the next subsequent mammography screening.

Relationships Between the External and Internal Training Load in Professional Soccer: What Can We Learn From Machine Learning?

Science.gov (United States)

Jaspers, Arne; Beéck, Tim Op De; Brink, Michel S; Frencken, Wouter G P; Staes, Filip; Davis, Jesse J; Helsen, Werner F

2017-12-28

Machine learning may contribute to understanding the relationship between the external load and internal load in professional soccer. Therefore, the relationship between external load indicators and the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) was examined using machine learning techniques on a group and individual level. Training data were collected from 38 professional soccer players over two seasons. The external load was measured using global positioning system technology and accelerometry. The internal load was obtained using the RPE. Predictive models were constructed using two machine learning techniques, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and one naive baseline method. The predictions were based on a large set of external load indicators. Using each technique, one group model involving all players and one individual model for each player was constructed. These models' performance on predicting the reported RPE values for future training sessions was compared to the naive baseline's performance. Both the ANN and LASSO models outperformed the baseline. Additionally, the LASSO model made more accurate predictions for the RPE than the ANN model. Furthermore, decelerations were identified as important external load indicators. Regardless of the applied machine learning technique, the group models resulted in equivalent or better predictions for the reported RPE values than the individual models. Machine learning techniques may have added value in predicting the RPE for future sessions to optimize training design and evaluation. Additionally, these techniques may be used in conjunction with expert knowledge to select key external load indicators for load monitoring.

Machine-learning-assisted materials discovery using failed experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Raccuglia, Paul; Elbert, Katherine C.; Adler, Philip D. F.; Falk, Casey; Wenny, Malia B.; Mollo, Aurelio; Zeller, Matthias; Friedler, Sorelle A.; Schrier, Joshua; Norquist, Alexander J.

2016-05-01

Inorganic-organic hybrid materials such as organically templated metal oxides, metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) and organohalide perovskites have been studied for decades, and hydrothermal and (non-aqueous) solvothermal syntheses have produced thousands of new materials that collectively contain nearly all the metals in the periodic table. Nevertheless, the formation of these compounds is not fully understood, and development of new compounds relies primarily on exploratory syntheses. Simulation- and data-driven approaches (promoted by efforts such as the Materials Genome Initiative) provide an alternative to experimental trial-and-error. Three major strategies are: simulation-based predictions of physical properties (for example, charge mobility, photovoltaic properties, gas adsorption capacity or lithium-ion intercalation) to identify promising target candidates for synthetic efforts; determination of the structure-property relationship from large bodies of experimental data, enabled by integration with high-throughput synthesis and measurement tools; and clustering on the basis of similar crystallographic structure (for example, zeolite structure classification or gas adsorption properties). Here we demonstrate an alternative approach that uses machine-learning algorithms trained on reaction data to predict reaction outcomes for the crystallization of templated vanadium selenites. We used information on ‘dark’ reactions—failed or unsuccessful hydrothermal syntheses—collected from archived laboratory notebooks from our laboratory, and added physicochemical property descriptions to the raw notebook information using cheminformatics techniques. We used the resulting data to train a machine-learning model to predict reaction success. When carrying out hydrothermal synthesis experiments using previously untested, commercially available organic building blocks, our machine-learning model outperformed traditional human strategies, and successfully predicted

Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for prediction of regions of high Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, J.; Templeton, J.

2015-08-01

Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) models are widely used in industry to predict fluid flows, despite their acknowledged deficiencies. Not only do RANS models often produce inaccurate flow predictions, but there are very limited diagnostics available to assess RANS accuracy for a given flow configuration. If experimental or higher fidelity simulation results are not available for RANS validation, there is no reliable method to evaluate RANS accuracy. This paper explores the potential of utilizing machine learning algorithms to identify regions of high RANS uncertainty. Three different machine learning algorithms were evaluated: support vector machines, Adaboost decision trees, and random forests. The algorithms were trained on a database of canonical flow configurations for which validated direct numerical simulation or large eddy simulation results were available, and were used to classify RANS results on a point-by-point basis as having either high or low uncertainty, based on the breakdown of specific RANS modeling assumptions. Classifiers were developed for three different basic RANS eddy viscosity model assumptions: the isotropy of the eddy viscosity, the linearity of the Boussinesq hypothesis, and the non-negativity of the eddy viscosity. It is shown that these classifiers are able to generalize to flows substantially different from those on which they were trained. Feature selection techniques, model evaluation, and extrapolation detection are discussed in the context of turbulence modeling applications.

Time-series prediction and applications a machine intelligence approach

CERN Document Server

Konar, Amit

2017-01-01

This book presents machine learning and type-2 fuzzy sets for the prediction of time-series with a particular focus on business forecasting applications. It also proposes new uncertainty management techniques in an economic time-series using type-2 fuzzy sets for prediction of the time-series at a given time point from its preceding value in fluctuating business environments. It employs machine learning to determine repetitively occurring similar structural patterns in the time-series and uses stochastic automaton to predict the most probabilistic structure at a given partition of the time-series. Such predictions help in determining probabilistic moves in a stock index time-series Primarily written for graduate students and researchers in computer science, the book is equally useful for researchers/professionals in business intelligence and stock index prediction. A background of undergraduate level mathematics is presumed, although not mandatory, for most of the sections. Exercises with tips are provided at...

Machine learning application in the life time of materials

OpenAIRE

Yu, Xiaojiao

2017-01-01

Materials design and development typically takes several decades from the initial discovery to commercialization with the traditional trial and error development approach. With the accumulation of data from both experimental and computational results, data based machine learning becomes an emerging field in materials discovery, design and property prediction. This manuscript reviews the history of materials science as a disciplinary the most common machine learning method used in materials sc...

Machine Learning and Inverse Problem in Geodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Shahnas, M. H.; Yuen, D. A.; Pysklywec, R.

2017-12-01

During the past few decades numerical modeling and traditional HPC have been widely deployed in many diverse fields for problem solutions. However, in recent years the rapid emergence of machine learning (ML), a subfield of the artificial intelligence (AI), in many fields of sciences, engineering, and finance seems to mark a turning point in the replacement of traditional modeling procedures with artificial intelligence-based techniques. The study of the circulation in the interior of Earth relies on the study of high pressure mineral physics, geochemistry, and petrology where the number of the mantle parameters is large and the thermoelastic parameters are highly pressure- and temperature-dependent. More complexity arises from the fact that many of these parameters that are incorporated in the numerical models as input parameters are not yet well established. In such complex systems the application of machine learning algorithms can play a valuable role. Our focus in this study is the application of supervised machine learning (SML) algorithms in predicting mantle properties with the emphasis on SML techniques in solving the inverse problem. As a sample problem we focus on the spin transition in ferropericlase and perovskite that may cause slab and plume stagnation at mid-mantle depths. The degree of the stagnation depends on the degree of negative density anomaly at the spin transition zone. The training and testing samples for the machine learning models are produced by the numerical convection models with known magnitudes of density anomaly (as the class labels of the samples). The volume fractions of the stagnated slabs and plumes which can be considered as measures for the degree of stagnation are assigned as sample features. The machine learning models can determine the magnitude of the spin transition-induced density anomalies that can cause flow stagnation at mid-mantle depths. Employing support vector machine (SVM) algorithms we show that SML techniques

A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-03-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of ∼5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.

Predicting High Frequency Exchange Rates using Machine Learning

OpenAIRE

Palikuca, Aleksandar; Seidl,, Timo

2016-01-01

This thesis applies a committee of Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines on high-dimensional, high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data in an effort to predict directional market movements on up to a 60 second prediction horizon. The study shows that combining multiple classifiers into a committee produces improved precision relative to the best individual committee members and outperforms previously reported results. A trading simulation implementing the committee classifier...

1st International Conference on Machine Learning for Cyber Physical Systems and Industry 4.0

CERN Document Server

Beyerer, Jürgen

2016-01-01

The work presents new approaches to Machine Learning for Cyber Physical Systems, experiences and visions. It contains some selected papers from the international Conference ML4CPS – Machine Learning for Cyber Physical Systems, which was held in Lemgo, October 1-2, 2015. Cyber Physical Systems are characterized by their ability to adapt and to learn: They analyze their environment and, based on observations, they learn patterns, correlations and predictive models. Typical applications are condition monitoring, predictive maintenance, image processing and diagnosis. Machine Learning is the key technology for these developments.

Using Five Machine Learning for Breast Cancer Biopsy Predictions Based on Mammographic Diagnosis

OpenAIRE

Oyewola, David; Hakimi, Danladi; Adeboye, Kayode; Shehu, Musa Danjuma

2017-01-01

Breast cancer is one of thecauses of female death in the world. Mammography  is commonly  used for  distinguishing  malignant tumors  from benign  ones. In this research,  a mammographic  diagnostic method  is  presented for breast  cancer  biopsy outcome  predictions  using  fivemachine learning which includes: Logistic Regression(LR), Linear DiscriminantAnalysis(LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis(QDA), Random Forest(RF) andSupport  Vector Machine(SVM)  classification.  The testing result...

Developing robust arsenic awareness prediction models using machine learning algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Sushant K; Taylor, Robert W; Rahman, Mohammad Mahmudur; Pradhan, Biswajeet

2018-04-01

Arsenic awareness plays a vital role in ensuring the sustainability of arsenic mitigation technologies. Thus far, however, few studies have dealt with the sustainability of such technologies and its associated socioeconomic dimensions. As a result, arsenic awareness prediction has not yet been fully conceptualized. Accordingly, this study evaluated arsenic awareness among arsenic-affected communities in rural India, using a structured questionnaire to record socioeconomic, demographic, and other sociobehavioral factors with an eye to assessing their association with and influence on arsenic awareness. First a logistic regression model was applied and its results compared with those produced by six state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms (Support Vector Machine [SVM], Kernel-SVM, Decision Tree [DT], k-Nearest Neighbor [k-NN], Naïve Bayes [NB], and Random Forests [RF]) as measured by their accuracy at predicting arsenic awareness. Most (63%) of the surveyed population was found to be arsenic-aware. Significant arsenic awareness predictors were divided into three types: (1) socioeconomic factors: caste, education level, and occupation; (2) water and sanitation behavior factors: number of family members involved in water collection, distance traveled and time spent for water collection, places for defecation, and materials used for handwashing after defecation; and (3) social capital and trust factors: presence of anganwadi and people's trust in other community members, NGOs, and private agencies. Moreover, individuals' having higher social network positively contributed to arsenic awareness in the communities. Results indicated that both the SVM and the RF algorithms outperformed at overall prediction of arsenic awareness-a nonlinear classification problem. Lower-caste, less educated, and unemployed members of the population were found to be the most vulnerable, requiring immediate arsenic mitigation. To this end, local social institutions and NGOs could play a

Pattern recognition & machine learning

CERN Document Server

Anzai, Y

1992-01-01

This is the first text to provide a unified and self-contained introduction to visual pattern recognition and machine learning. It is useful as a general introduction to artifical intelligence and knowledge engineering, and no previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning is necessary. Basic for various pattern recognition and machine learning methods. Translated from Japanese, the book also features chapter exercises, keywords, and summaries.

Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances.

Science.gov (United States)

Abut, Fatih; Akay, Mehmet Fatih

2015-01-01

Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance.

Classifying smoking urges via machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumortier, Antoine; Beckjord, Ellen; Shiffman, Saul; Sejdić, Ervin

2016-12-01

Smoking is the largest preventable cause of death and diseases in the developed world, and advances in modern electronics and machine learning can help us deliver real-time intervention to smokers in novel ways. In this paper, we examine different machine learning approaches to use situational features associated with having or not having urges to smoke during a quit attempt in order to accurately classify high-urge states. To test our machine learning approaches, specifically, Bayes, discriminant analysis and decision tree learning methods, we used a dataset collected from over 300 participants who had initiated a quit attempt. The three classification approaches are evaluated observing sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and precision. The outcome of the analysis showed that algorithms based on feature selection make it possible to obtain high classification rates with only a few features selected from the entire dataset. The classification tree method outperformed the naive Bayes and discriminant analysis methods, with an accuracy of the classifications up to 86%. These numbers suggest that machine learning may be a suitable approach to deal with smoking cessation matters, and to predict smoking urges, outlining a potential use for mobile health applications. In conclusion, machine learning classifiers can help identify smoking situations, and the search for the best features and classifier parameters significantly improves the algorithms' performance. In addition, this study also supports the usefulness of new technologies in improving the effect of smoking cessation interventions, the management of time and patients by therapists, and thus the optimization of available health care resources. Future studies should focus on providing more adaptive and personalized support to people who really need it, in a minimum amount of time by developing novel expert systems capable of delivering real-time interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Rules-Based Approaches for Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Profiles in Gram-negative Bacilli from Whole Genome Sequence Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Pesesky, Mitchell W; Hussain, Tahir; Wallace, Meghan; Patel, Sanket; Andleeb, Saadia; Burnham, Carey-Ann D; Dantas, Gautam

2016-01-01

The time-to-result for culture-based microorganism recovery and phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing necessitates initial use of empiric (frequently broad-spectrum) antimicrobial therapy. If the empiric therapy is not optimal, this can lead to adverse patient outcomes and contribute to increasing antibiotic resistance in pathogens. New, more rapid technologies are emerging to meet this need. Many of these are based on identifying resistance genes, rather than directly assaying resistance phenotypes, and thus require interpretation to translate the genotype into treatment recommendations. These interpretations, like other parts of clinical diagnostic workflows, are likely to be increasingly automated in the future. We set out to evaluate the two major approaches that could be amenable to automation pipelines: rules-based methods and machine learning methods. The rules-based algorithm makes predictions based upon current, curated knowledge of Enterobacteriaceae resistance genes. The machine-learning algorithm predicts resistance and susceptibility based on a model built from a training set of variably resistant isolates. As our test set, we used whole genome sequence data from 78 clinical Enterobacteriaceae isolates, previously identified to represent a variety of phenotypes, from fully-susceptible to pan-resistant strains for the antibiotics tested. We tested three antibiotic resistance determinant databases for their utility in identifying the complete resistome for each isolate. The predictions of the rules-based and machine learning algorithms for these isolates were compared to results of phenotype-based diagnostics. The rules based and machine-learning predictions achieved agreement with standard-of-care phenotypic diagnostics of 89.0 and 90.3%, respectively, across twelve antibiotic agents from six major antibiotic classes. Several sources of disagreement between the algorithms were identified. Novel variants of known resistance factors and

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Rules-Based Approaches for Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Profiles in Gram-negative Bacilli from Whole Genome Sequence Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitchell Pesesky

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The time-to-result for culture-based microorganism recovery and phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing necessitate initial use of empiric (frequently broad-spectrum antimicrobial therapy. If the empiric therapy is not optimal, this can lead to adverse patient outcomes and contribute to increasing antibiotic resistance in pathogens. New, more rapid technologies are emerging to meet this need. Many of these are based on identifying resistance genes, rather than directly assaying resistance phenotypes, and thus require interpretation to translate the genotype into treatment recommendations. These interpretations, like other parts of clinical diagnostic workflows, are likely to be increasingly automated in the future. We set out to evaluate the two major approaches that could be amenable to automation pipelines: rules-based methods and machine learning methods. The rules-based algorithm makes predictions based upon current, curated knowledge of Enterobacteriaceae resistance genes. The machine-learning algorithm predicts resistance and susceptibility based on a model built from a training set of variably resistant isolates. As our test set, we used whole genome sequence data from 78 clinical Enterobacteriaceae isolates, previously identified to represent a variety of phenotypes, from fully-susceptible to pan-resistant strains for the antibiotics tested. We tested three antibiotic resistance determinant databases for their utility in identifying the complete resistome for each isolate. The predictions of the rules-based and machine learning algorithms for these isolates were compared to results of phenotype-based diagnostics. The rules based and machine-learning predictions achieved agreement with standard-of-care phenotypic diagnostics of 89.0% and 90.3%, respectively, across twelve antibiotic agents from six major antibiotic classes. Several sources of disagreement between the algorithms were identified. Novel variants of known resistance

e-Bitter: Bitterant Prediction by the Consensus Voting From the Machine-Learning Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Suqing; Jiang, Mengying; Zhao, Chengwei; Zhu, Rui; Hu, Zhicheng; Xu, Yong; Lin, Fu

2018-01-01

In-silico bitterant prediction received the considerable attention due to the expensive and laborious experimental-screening of the bitterant. In this work, we collect the fully experimental dataset containing 707 bitterants and 592 non-bitterants, which is distinct from the fully or partially hypothetical non-bitterant dataset used in the previous works. Based on this experimental dataset, we harness the consensus votes from the multiple machine-learning methods (e.g., deep learning etc.) combined with the molecular fingerprint to build the bitter/bitterless classification models with five-fold cross-validation, which are further inspected by the Y-randomization test and applicability domain analysis. One of the best consensus models affords the accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.929, 0.918, 0.898, 0.954, 0.936, and 0.856 respectively on our test set. For the automatic prediction of bitterant, a graphic program "e-Bitter" is developed for the convenience of users via the simple mouse click. To our best knowledge, it is for the first time to adopt the consensus model for the bitterant prediction and develop the first free stand-alone software for the experimental food scientist.

e-Bitter: Bitterant Prediction by the Consensus Voting From the Machine-learning Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Suqing; Jiang, Mengying; Zhao, Chengwei; Zhu, Rui; Hu, Zhicheng; Xu, Yong; Lin, Fu

2018-03-01

In-silico bitterant prediction received the considerable attention due to the expensive and laborious experimental-screening of the bitterant. In this work, we collect the fully experimental dataset containing 707 bitterants and 592 non-bitterants, which is distinct from the fully or partially hypothetical non-bitterant dataset used in the previous works. Based on this experimental dataset, we harness the consensus votes from the multiple machine-learning methods (e.g., deep learning etc.) combined with the molecular fingerprint to build the bitter/bitterless classification models with five-fold cross-validation, which are further inspected by the Y-randomization test and applicability domain analysis. One of the best consensus models affords the accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.929, 0.918, 0.898, 0.954, 0.936, and 0.856 respectively on our test set. For the automatic prediction of bitterant, a graphic program “e-Bitter” is developed for the convenience of users via the simple mouse click. To our best knowledge, it is for the first time to adopt the consensus model for the bitterant prediction and develop the first free stand-alone software for the experimental food scientist.

Visible Machine Learning for Biomedicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Michael K; Ma, Jianzhu; Fisher, Jasmin; Kreisberg, Jason F; Raphael, Benjamin J; Ideker, Trey

2018-06-14

A major ambition of artificial intelligence lies in translating patient data to successful therapies. Machine learning models face particular challenges in biomedicine, however, including handling of extreme data heterogeneity and lack of mechanistic insight into predictions. Here, we argue for "visible" approaches that guide model structure with experimental biology. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Machine learning methods enable predictive modeling of antibody feature:function relationships in RV144 vaccinees.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Ickwon; Chung, Amy W; Suscovich, Todd J; Rerks-Ngarm, Supachai; Pitisuttithum, Punnee; Nitayaphan, Sorachai; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; O'Connell, Robert J; Francis, Donald; Robb, Merlin L; Michael, Nelson L; Kim, Jerome H; Alter, Galit; Ackerman, Margaret E; Bailey-Kellogg, Chris

2015-04-01

The adaptive immune response to vaccination or infection can lead to the production of specific antibodies to neutralize the pathogen or recruit innate immune effector cells for help. The non-neutralizing role of antibodies in stimulating effector cell responses may have been a key mechanism of the protection observed in the RV144 HIV vaccine trial. In an extensive investigation of a rich set of data collected from RV144 vaccine recipients, we here employ machine learning methods to identify and model associations between antibody features (IgG subclass and antigen specificity) and effector function activities (antibody dependent cellular phagocytosis, cellular cytotoxicity, and cytokine release). We demonstrate via cross-validation that classification and regression approaches can effectively use the antibody features to robustly predict qualitative and quantitative functional outcomes. This integration of antibody feature and function data within a machine learning framework provides a new, objective approach to discovering and assessing multivariate immune correlates.

Machine learning methods enable predictive modeling of antibody feature:function relationships in RV144 vaccinees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ickwon Choi

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The adaptive immune response to vaccination or infection can lead to the production of specific antibodies to neutralize the pathogen or recruit innate immune effector cells for help. The non-neutralizing role of antibodies in stimulating effector cell responses may have been a key mechanism of the protection observed in the RV144 HIV vaccine trial. In an extensive investigation of a rich set of data collected from RV144 vaccine recipients, we here employ machine learning methods to identify and model associations between antibody features (IgG subclass and antigen specificity and effector function activities (antibody dependent cellular phagocytosis, cellular cytotoxicity, and cytokine release. We demonstrate via cross-validation that classification and regression approaches can effectively use the antibody features to robustly predict qualitative and quantitative functional outcomes. This integration of antibody feature and function data within a machine learning framework provides a new, objective approach to discovering and assessing multivariate immune correlates.

Human Machine Learning Symbiosis

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Kenneth R.; Hoque, Md Tamjidul; Williams, Kim H.

2017-01-01

Human Machine Learning Symbiosis is a cooperative system where both the human learner and the machine learner learn from each other to create an effective and efficient learning environment adapted to the needs of the human learner. Such a system can be used in online learning modules so that the modules adapt to each learner's learning state both…

Boosting compound-protein interaction prediction by deep learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Kai; Shao, Mingyu; Wang, Yang; Guan, Jihong; Zhou, Shuigeng

2016-11-01

The identification of interactions between compounds and proteins plays an important role in network pharmacology and drug discovery. However, experimentally identifying compound-protein interactions (CPIs) is generally expensive and time-consuming, computational approaches are thus introduced. Among these, machine-learning based methods have achieved a considerable success. However, due to the nonlinear and imbalanced nature of biological data, many machine learning approaches have their own limitations. Recently, deep learning techniques show advantages over many state-of-the-art machine learning methods in some applications. In this study, we aim at improving the performance of CPI prediction based on deep learning, and propose a method called DL-CPI (the abbreviation of Deep Learning for Compound-Protein Interactions prediction), which employs deep neural network (DNN) to effectively learn the representations of compound-protein pairs. Extensive experiments show that DL-CPI can learn useful features of compound-protein pairs by a layerwise abstraction, and thus achieves better prediction performance than existing methods on both balanced and imbalanced datasets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of In-hospital Mortality in Emergency Department Patients With Sepsis: A Local Big Data-Driven, Machine Learning Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, R Andrew; Pare, Joseph R; Venkatesh, Arjun K; Mowafi, Hani; Melnick, Edward R; Fleischman, William; Hall, M Kennedy

2016-03-01

Predictive analytics in emergency care has mostly been limited to the use of clinical decision rules (CDRs) in the form of simple heuristics and scoring systems. In the development of CDRs, limitations in analytic methods and concerns with usability have generally constrained models to a preselected small set of variables judged to be clinically relevant and to rules that are easily calculated. Furthermore, CDRs frequently suffer from questions of generalizability, take years to develop, and lack the ability to be updated as new information becomes available. Newer analytic and machine learning techniques capable of harnessing the large number of variables that are already available through electronic health records (EHRs) may better predict patient outcomes and facilitate automation and deployment within clinical decision support systems. In this proof-of-concept study, a local, big data-driven, machine learning approach is compared to existing CDRs and traditional analytic methods using the prediction of sepsis in-hospital mortality as the use case. This was a retrospective study of adult ED visits admitted to the hospital meeting criteria for sepsis from October 2013 to October 2014. Sepsis was defined as meeting criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome with an infectious admitting diagnosis in the ED. ED visits were randomly partitioned into an 80%/20% split for training and validation. A random forest model (machine learning approach) was constructed using over 500 clinical variables from data available within the EHRs of four hospitals to predict in-hospital mortality. The machine learning prediction model was then compared to a classification and regression tree (CART) model, logistic regression model, and previously developed prediction tools on the validation data set using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and chi-square statistics. There were 5,278 visits among 4,676 unique patients who met criteria for sepsis. Of

Deep learning: Using machine learning to study biological vision

OpenAIRE

Majaj, Najib; Pelli, Denis

2017-01-01

Today most vision-science presentations mention machine learning. Many neuroscientists use machine learning to decode neural responses. Many perception scientists try to understand recognition by living organisms. To them, machine learning offers a reference of attainable performance based on learned stimuli. This brief overview of the use of machine learning in biological vision touches on its strengths, weaknesses, milestones, controversies, and current directions.

Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for the Prediction of Compressive Strength of Concrete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Palika Chopra

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A comparative analysis for the prediction of compressive strength of concrete at the ages of 28, 56, and 91 days has been carried out using machine learning techniques via “R” software environment. R is digging out a strong foothold in the statistical realm and is becoming an indispensable tool for researchers. The dataset has been generated under controlled laboratory conditions. Using R miner, the most widely used data mining techniques decision tree (DT model, random forest (RF model, and neural network (NN model have been used and compared with the help of coefficient of determination (R2 and root-mean-square error (RMSE, and it is inferred that the NN model predicts with high accuracy for compressive strength of concrete.

Soft computing in machine learning

CERN Document Server

Park, Jooyoung; Inoue, Atsushi

2014-01-01

As users or consumers are now demanding smarter devices, intelligent systems are revolutionizing by utilizing machine learning. Machine learning as part of intelligent systems is already one of the most critical components in everyday tools ranging from search engines and credit card fraud detection to stock market analysis. You can train machines to perform some things, so that they can automatically detect, diagnose, and solve a variety of problems. The intelligent systems have made rapid progress in developing the state of the art in machine learning based on smart and deep perception. Using machine learning, the intelligent systems make widely applications in automated speech recognition, natural language processing, medical diagnosis, bioinformatics, and robot locomotion. This book aims at introducing how to treat a substantial amount of data, to teach machines and to improve decision making models. And this book specializes in the developments of advanced intelligent systems through machine learning. It...

Predicting Freeway Work Zone Delays and Costs with a Hybrid Machine-Learning Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Du

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A hybrid machine-learning model, integrating an artificial neural network (ANN and a support vector machine (SVM model, is developed to predict spatiotemporal delays, subject to road geometry, number of lane closures, and work zone duration in different periods of a day and in the days of a week. The model is very user friendly, allowing the least inputs from the users. With that the delays caused by a work zone on any location of a New Jersey freeway can be predicted. To this end, tremendous amounts of data from different sources were collected to establish the relationship between the model inputs and outputs. A comparative analysis was conducted, and results indicate that the proposed model outperforms others in terms of the least root mean square error (RMSE. The proposed hybrid model can be used to calculate contractor penalty in terms of cost overruns as well as incentive reward schedule in case of early work competition. Additionally, it can assist work zone planners in determining the best start and end times of a work zone for developing and evaluating traffic mitigation and management plans.

Machine learning for epigenetics and future medical applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Holder, Lawrence B; Haque, M Muksitul; Skinner, Michael K

2017-07-03

Understanding epigenetic processes holds immense promise for medical applications. Advances in Machine Learning (ML) are critical to realize this promise. Previous studies used epigenetic data sets associated with the germline transmission of epigenetic transgenerational inheritance of disease and novel ML approaches to predict genome-wide locations of critical epimutations. A combination of Active Learning (ACL) and Imbalanced Class Learning (ICL) was used to address past problems with ML to develop a more efficient feature selection process and address the imbalance problem in all genomic data sets. The power of this novel ML approach and our ability to predict epigenetic phenomena and associated disease is suggested. The current approach requires extensive computation of features over the genome. A promising new approach is to introduce Deep Learning (DL) for the generation and simultaneous computation of novel genomic features tuned to the classification task. This approach can be used with any genomic or biological data set applied to medicine. The application of molecular epigenetic data in advanced machine learning analysis to medicine is the focus of this review.

Making Individual Prognoses in Psychiatry Using Neuroimaging and Machine Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Ronald J; Mourão-Miranda, Janaina; Schnack, Hugo G

2018-04-22

Psychiatric prognosis is a difficult problem. Making a prognosis requires looking far into the future, as opposed to making a diagnosis, which is concerned with the current state. During the follow-up period, many factors will influence the course of the disease. Combined with the usually scarcer longitudinal data and the variability in the definition of outcomes/transition, this makes prognostic predictions a challenging endeavor. Employing neuroimaging data in this endeavor introduces the additional hurdle of high dimensionality. Machine-learning techniques are especially suited to tackle this challenging problem. This review starts with a brief introduction to machine learning in the context of its application to clinical neuroimaging data. We highlight a few issues that are especially relevant for prediction of outcome and transition using neuroimaging. We then review the literature that discusses the application of machine learning for this purpose. Critical examination of the studies and their results with respect to the relevant issues revealed the following: 1) there is growing evidence for the prognostic capability of machine-learning-based models using neuroimaging; and 2) reported accuracies may be too optimistic owing to small sample sizes and the lack of independent test samples. Finally, we discuss options to improve the reliability of (prognostic) prediction models. These include new methodologies and multimodal modeling. Paramount, however, is our conclusion that future work will need to provide properly (cross-)validated accuracy estimates of models trained on sufficiently large datasets. Nevertheless, with the technological advances enabling acquisition of large databases of patients and healthy subjects, machine learning represents a powerful tool in the search for psychiatric biomarkers. Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Machine learning and medical imaging

CERN Document Server

Shen, Dinggang; Sabuncu, Mert

2016-01-01

Machine Learning and Medical Imaging presents state-of- the-art machine learning methods in medical image analysis. It first summarizes cutting-edge machine learning algorithms in medical imaging, including not only classical probabilistic modeling and learning methods, but also recent breakthroughs in deep learning, sparse representation/coding, and big data hashing. In the second part leading research groups around the world present a wide spectrum of machine learning methods with application to different medical imaging modalities, clinical domains, and organs. The biomedical imaging modalities include ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT), histology, and microscopy images. The targeted organs span the lung, liver, brain, and prostate, while there is also a treatment of examining genetic associations. Machine Learning and Medical Imaging is an ideal reference for medical imaging researchers, industry scientists and engineers, advanced undergraduate and graduate students, a...

A Machine Learning Ensemble Classifier for Early Prediction of Diabetic Retinopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

S K, Somasundaram; P, Alli

2017-11-09

The main complication of diabetes is Diabetic retinopathy (DR), retinal vascular disease and it leads to the blindness. Regular screening for early DR disease detection is considered as an intensive labor and resource oriented task. Therefore, automatic detection of DR diseases is performed only by using the computational technique is the great solution. An automatic method is more reliable to determine the presence of an abnormality in Fundus images (FI) but, the classification process is poorly performed. Recently, few research works have been designed for analyzing texture discrimination capacity in FI to distinguish the healthy images. However, the feature extraction (FE) process was not performed well, due to the high dimensionality. Therefore, to identify retinal features for DR disease diagnosis and early detection using Machine Learning and Ensemble Classification method, called, Machine Learning Bagging Ensemble Classifier (ML-BEC) is designed. The ML-BEC method comprises of two stages. The first stage in ML-BEC method comprises extraction of the candidate objects from Retinal Images (RI). The candidate objects or the features for DR disease diagnosis include blood vessels, optic nerve, neural tissue, neuroretinal rim, optic disc size, thickness and variance. These features are initially extracted by applying Machine Learning technique called, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE). Besides, t-SNE generates a probability distribution across high-dimensional images where the images are separated into similar and dissimilar pairs. Then, t-SNE describes a similar probability distribution across the points in the low-dimensional map. This lessens the Kullback-Leibler divergence among two distributions regarding the locations of the points on the map. The second stage comprises of application of ensemble classifiers to the extracted features for providing accurate analysis of digital FI using machine learning. In this stage, an automatic detection

Combining Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing to Assess Literary Text Comprehension

Science.gov (United States)

Balyan, Renu; McCarthy, Kathryn S.; McNamara, Danielle S.

2017-01-01

This study examined how machine learning and natural language processing (NLP) techniques can be leveraged to assess the interpretive behavior that is required for successful literary text comprehension. We compared the accuracy of seven different machine learning classification algorithms in predicting human ratings of student essays about…

Using machine learning and quantum chemistry descriptors to predict the toxicity of ionic liquids.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Lingdi; Zhu, Peng; Zhao, Yongsheng; Zhao, Jihong

2018-06-15

Large-scale application of ionic liquids (ILs) hinges on the advancement of designable and eco-friendly nature. Research of the potential toxicity of ILs towards different organisms and trophic levels is insufficient. Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) model is applied to evaluate the toxicity of ILs towards the leukemia rat cell line (ICP-81). The structures of 57 cations and 21 anions were optimized by quantum chemistry. The electrostatic potential surface area (S EP ) and charge distribution area (S σ-profile ) descriptors are calculated and used to predict the toxicity of ILs. The performance and predictive aptitude of extreme learning machine (ELM) model are analyzed and compared with those of multiple linear regression (MLR) and support vector machine (SVM) models. The highest R 2 and the lowest AARD% and RMSE of the training set, test set and total set for the ELM are observed, which validates the superior performance of the ELM than that of obtained by the MLR and SVM. The applicability domain of the model is assessed by the Williams plot. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Data Flow Model to Solve the Data Distribution Changing Problem in Machine Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shang Bo-Wen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Continuous prediction is widely used in broad communities spreading from social to business and the machine learning method is an important method in this problem.When we use the machine learning method to predict a problem. We use the data in the training set to fit the model and estimate the distribution of data in the test set.But when we use machine learning to do the continuous prediction we get new data as time goes by and use the data to predict the future data, there may be a problem. As the size of the data set increasing over time, the distribution changes and there will be many garbage data in the training set.We should remove the garbage data as it reduces the accuracy of the prediction. The main contribution of this article is using the new data to detect the timeliness of historical data and remove the garbage data.We build a data flow model to describe how the data flow among the test set, training set, validation set and the garbage set and improve the accuracy of prediction. As the change of the data set, the best machine learning model will change.We design a hybrid voting algorithm to fit the data set better that uses seven machine learning models predicting the same problem and uses the validation set putting different weights on the learning models to give better model more weights. Experimental results show that, when the distribution of the data set changes over time, our time flow model can remove most of the garbage data and get a better result than the traditional method that adds all the data to the data set; our hybrid voting algorithm has a better prediction result than the average accuracy of other predict models

Predicting drug-target interactions using restricted Boltzmann machines.

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Wang, Yuhao; Zeng, Jianyang

2013-07-01

In silico prediction of drug-target interactions plays an important role toward identifying and developing new uses of existing or abandoned drugs. Network-based approaches have recently become a popular tool for discovering new drug-target interactions (DTIs). Unfortunately, most of these network-based approaches can only predict binary interactions between drugs and targets, and information about different types of interactions has not been well exploited for DTI prediction in previous studies. On the other hand, incorporating additional information about drug-target relationships or drug modes of action can improve prediction of DTIs. Furthermore, the predicted types of DTIs can broaden our understanding about the molecular basis of drug action. We propose a first machine learning approach to integrate multiple types of DTIs and predict unknown drug-target relationships or drug modes of action. We cast the new DTI prediction problem into a two-layer graphical model, called restricted Boltzmann machine, and apply a practical learning algorithm to train our model and make predictions. Tests on two public databases show that our restricted Boltzmann machine model can effectively capture the latent features of a DTI network and achieve excellent performance on predicting different types of DTIs, with the area under precision-recall curve up to 89.6. In addition, we demonstrate that integrating multiple types of DTIs can significantly outperform other predictions either by simply mixing multiple types of interactions without distinction or using only a single interaction type. Further tests show that our approach can infer a high fraction of novel DTIs that has been validated by known experiments in the literature or other databases. These results indicate that our approach can have highly practical relevance to DTI prediction and drug repositioning, and hence advance the drug discovery process. Software and datasets are available on request. Supplementary data are

Validating Machine Learning Algorithms for Twitter Data Against Established Measures of Suicidality.

Science.gov (United States)

Braithwaite, Scott R; Giraud-Carrier, Christophe; West, Josh; Barnes, Michael D; Hanson, Carl Lee

2016-05-16

One of the leading causes of death in the United States (US) is suicide and new methods of assessment are needed to track its risk in real time. Our objective is to validate the use of machine learning algorithms for Twitter data against empirically validated measures of suicidality in the US population. Using a machine learning algorithm, the Twitter feeds of 135 Mechanical Turk (MTurk) participants were compared with validated, self-report measures of suicide risk. Our findings show that people who are at high suicidal risk can be easily differentiated from those who are not by machine learning algorithms, which accurately identify the clinically significant suicidal rate in 92% of cases (sensitivity: 53%, specificity: 97%, positive predictive value: 75%, negative predictive value: 93%). Machine learning algorithms are efficient in differentiating people who are at a suicidal risk from those who are not. Evidence for suicidality can be measured in nonclinical populations using social media data.

Short communication: Prediction of retention pay-off using a machine learning algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahinfar, Saleh; Kalantari, Afshin S; Cabrera, Victor; Weigel, Kent

2014-05-01

Replacement decisions have a major effect on dairy farm profitability. Dynamic programming (DP) has been widely studied to find the optimal replacement policies in dairy cattle. However, DP models are computationally intensive and might not be practical for daily decision making. Hence, the ability of applying machine learning on a prerun DP model to provide fast and accurate predictions of nonlinear and intercorrelated variables makes it an ideal methodology. Milk class (1 to 5), lactation number (1 to 9), month in milk (1 to 20), and month of pregnancy (0 to 9) were used to describe all cows in a herd in a DP model. Twenty-seven scenarios based on all combinations of 3 levels (base, 20% above, and 20% below) of milk production, milk price, and replacement cost were solved with the DP model, resulting in a data set of 122,716 records, each with a calculated retention pay-off (RPO). Then, a machine learning model tree algorithm was used to mimic the evaluated RPO with DP. The correlation coefficient factor was used to observe the concordance of RPO evaluated by DP and RPO predicted by the model tree. The obtained correlation coefficient was 0.991, with a corresponding value of 0.11 for relative absolute error. At least 100 instances were required per model constraint, resulting in 204 total equations (models). When these models were used for binary classification of positive and negative RPO, error rates were 1% false negatives and 9% false positives. Applying this trained model from simulated data for prediction of RPO for 102 actual replacement records from the University of Wisconsin-Madison dairy herd resulted in a 0.994 correlation with 0.10 relative absolute error rate. Overall results showed that model tree has a potential to be used in conjunction with DP to assist farmers in their replacement decisions. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accurate Identification of Cancerlectins through Hybrid Machine Learning Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jieru; Ju, Ying; Lu, Huijuan; Xuan, Ping; Zou, Quan

2016-01-01

Cancerlectins are cancer-related proteins that function as lectins. They have been identified through computational identification techniques, but these techniques have sometimes failed to identify proteins because of sequence diversity among the cancerlectins. Advanced machine learning identification methods, such as support vector machine and basic sequence features (n-gram), have also been used to identify cancerlectins. In this study, various protein fingerprint features and advanced classifiers, including ensemble learning techniques, were utilized to identify this group of proteins. We improved the prediction accuracy of the original feature extraction methods and classification algorithms by more than 10% on average. Our work provides a basis for the computational identification of cancerlectins and reveals the power of hybrid machine learning techniques in computational proteomics.

Model-based machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, Christopher M

2013-02-13

Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications.

Machine learning an artificial intelligence approach

CERN Document Server

Banerjee, R; Bradshaw, Gary; Carbonell, Jaime Guillermo; Mitchell, Tom Michael; Michalski, Ryszard Spencer

1983-01-01

Machine Learning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach contains tutorial overviews and research papers representative of trends in the area of machine learning as viewed from an artificial intelligence perspective. The book is organized into six parts. Part I provides an overview of machine learning and explains why machines should learn. Part II covers important issues affecting the design of learning programs-particularly programs that learn from examples. It also describes inductive learning systems. Part III deals with learning by analogy, by experimentation, and from experience. Parts IV a

Machine learning techniques in disease forecasting: a case study on rice blast prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kapoor Amar S

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diverse modeling approaches viz. neural networks and multiple regression have been followed to date for disease prediction in plant populations. However, due to their inability to predict value of unknown data points and longer training times, there is need for exploiting new prediction softwares for better understanding of plant-pathogen-environment relationships. Further, there is no online tool available which can help the plant researchers or farmers in timely application of control measures. This paper introduces a new prediction approach based on support vector machines for developing weather-based prediction models of plant diseases. Results Six significant weather variables were selected as predictor variables. Two series of models (cross-location and cross-year were developed and validated using a five-fold cross validation procedure. For cross-year models, the conventional multiple regression (REG approach achieved an average correlation coefficient (r of 0.50, which increased to 0.60 and percent mean absolute error (%MAE decreased from 65.42 to 52.24 when back-propagation neural network (BPNN was used. With generalized regression neural network (GRNN, the r increased to 0.70 and %MAE also improved to 46.30, which further increased to r = 0.77 and %MAE = 36.66 when support vector machine (SVM based method was used. Similarly, cross-location validation achieved r = 0.48, 0.56 and 0.66 using REG, BPNN and GRNN respectively, with their corresponding %MAE as 77.54, 66.11 and 58.26. The SVM-based method outperformed all the three approaches by further increasing r to 0.74 with improvement in %MAE to 44.12. Overall, this SVM-based prediction approach will open new vistas in the area of forecasting plant diseases of various crops. Conclusion Our case study demonstrated that SVM is better than existing machine learning techniques and conventional REG approaches in forecasting plant diseases. In this direction, we have also

Sensor Data Air Pollution Prediction by Machine Learning Methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Vidnerová, Petra; Neruda, Roman

submitted 25. 1. (2018) ISSN 1530-437X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-18108S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015042 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : machine learning * sensors * air pollution * deep neural networks * regularization networks Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 2.512, year: 2016

Learning to predict chemical reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kayala, Matthew A; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H; Baldi, Pierre

2011-09-26

Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles, respectively, are not high throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, and lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry data set consisting of 1630 full multistep reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top-ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of nonproductive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system

Learning to Predict Chemical Reactions

Science.gov (United States)

Kayala, Matthew A.; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H.

2011-01-01

Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles respectively are not high-throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, or lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry dataset consisting of 1630 full multi-step reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval, problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of non-productive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system

A Machine Learning Method for the Prediction of Receptor Activation in the Simulation of Synapses

Science.gov (United States)

Montes, Jesus; Gomez, Elena; Merchán-Pérez, Angel; DeFelipe, Javier; Peña, Jose-Maria

2013-01-01

Chemical synaptic transmission involves the release of a neurotransmitter that diffuses in the extracellular space and interacts with specific receptors located on the postsynaptic membrane. Computer simulation approaches provide fundamental tools for exploring various aspects of the synaptic transmission under different conditions. In particular, Monte Carlo methods can track the stochastic movements of neurotransmitter molecules and their interactions with other discrete molecules, the receptors. However, these methods are computationally expensive, even when used with simplified models, preventing their use in large-scale and multi-scale simulations of complex neuronal systems that may involve large numbers of synaptic connections. We have developed a machine-learning based method that can accurately predict relevant aspects of the behavior of synapses, such as the percentage of open synaptic receptors as a function of time since the release of the neurotransmitter, with considerably lower computational cost compared with the conventional Monte Carlo alternative. The method is designed to learn patterns and general principles from a corpus of previously generated Monte Carlo simulations of synapses covering a wide range of structural and functional characteristics. These patterns are later used as a predictive model of the behavior of synapses under different conditions without the need for additional computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations. This is performed in five stages: data sampling, fold creation, machine learning, validation and curve fitting. The resulting procedure is accurate, automatic, and it is general enough to predict synapse behavior under experimental conditions that are different to the ones it has been trained on. Since our method efficiently reproduces the results that can be obtained with Monte Carlo simulations at a considerably lower computational cost, it is suitable for the simulation of high numbers of synapses and it is

A machine learning method for the prediction of receptor activation in the simulation of synapses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesus Montes

Full Text Available Chemical synaptic transmission involves the release of a neurotransmitter that diffuses in the extracellular space and interacts with specific receptors located on the postsynaptic membrane. Computer simulation approaches provide fundamental tools for exploring various aspects of the synaptic transmission under different conditions. In particular, Monte Carlo methods can track the stochastic movements of neurotransmitter molecules and their interactions with other discrete molecules, the receptors. However, these methods are computationally expensive, even when used with simplified models, preventing their use in large-scale and multi-scale simulations of complex neuronal systems that may involve large numbers of synaptic connections. We have developed a machine-learning based method that can accurately predict relevant aspects of the behavior of synapses, such as the percentage of open synaptic receptors as a function of time since the release of the neurotransmitter, with considerably lower computational cost compared with the conventional Monte Carlo alternative. The method is designed to learn patterns and general principles from a corpus of previously generated Monte Carlo simulations of synapses covering a wide range of structural and functional characteristics. These patterns are later used as a predictive model of the behavior of synapses under different conditions without the need for additional computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations. This is performed in five stages: data sampling, fold creation, machine learning, validation and curve fitting. The resulting procedure is accurate, automatic, and it is general enough to predict synapse behavior under experimental conditions that are different to the ones it has been trained on. Since our method efficiently reproduces the results that can be obtained with Monte Carlo simulations at a considerably lower computational cost, it is suitable for the simulation of high numbers of

Student Modeling and Machine Learning

OpenAIRE

Sison , Raymund; Shimura , Masamichi

1998-01-01

After identifying essential student modeling issues and machine learning approaches, this paper examines how machine learning techniques have been used to automate the construction of student models as well as the background knowledge necessary for student modeling. In the process, the paper sheds light on the difficulty, suitability and potential of using machine learning for student modeling processes, and, to a lesser extent, the potential of using student modeling techniques in machine le...

Prediction of preterm deliveries from EHG signals using machine learning.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Fergus

Full Text Available There has been some improvement in the treatment of preterm infants, which has helped to increase their chance of survival. However, the rate of premature births is still globally increasing. As a result, this group of infants are most at risk of developing severe medical conditions that can affect the respiratory, gastrointestinal, immune, central nervous, auditory and visual systems. In extreme cases, this can also lead to long-term conditions, such as cerebral palsy, mental retardation, learning difficulties, including poor health and growth. In the US alone, the societal and economic cost of preterm births, in 2005, was estimated to be $26.2 billion, per annum. In the UK, this value was close to £2.95 billion, in 2009. Many believe that a better understanding of why preterm births occur, and a strategic focus on prevention, will help to improve the health of children and reduce healthcare costs. At present, most methods of preterm birth prediction are subjective. However, a strong body of evidence suggests the analysis of uterine electrical signals (Electrohysterography, could provide a viable way of diagnosing true labour and predict preterm deliveries. Most Electrohysterography studies focus on true labour detection during the final seven days, before labour. The challenge is to utilise Electrohysterography techniques to predict preterm delivery earlier in the pregnancy. This paper explores this idea further and presents a supervised machine learning approach that classifies term and preterm records, using an open source dataset containing 300 records (38 preterm and 262 term. The synthetic minority oversampling technique is used to oversample the minority preterm class, and cross validation techniques, are used to evaluate the dataset against other similar studies. Our approach shows an improvement on existing studies with 96% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and a 95% area under the curve value with 8% global error using the polynomial

Using Unsupervised Machine Learning for Outlier Detection in Data to Improve Wind Power Production Prediction

OpenAIRE

Åkerberg, Ludvig

2017-01-01

The expansion of wind power for electrical energy production has increased in recent years and shows no signs of slowing down. This unpredictable source of energy has contributed to destabilization of the electrical grid causing the energy market prices to vary significantly on a daily basis. For energy producers and consumers to make good investments, methods have been developed to make predictions of wind power production. These methods are often based on machine learning were historical we...

Machine Learning Methods for Analysis of Metabolic Data and Metabolic Pathway Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuperlovic-Culf, Miroslava

2018-01-11

Machine learning uses experimental data to optimize clustering or classification of samples or features, or to develop, augment or verify models that can be used to predict behavior or properties of systems. It is expected that machine learning will help provide actionable knowledge from a variety of big data including metabolomics data, as well as results of metabolism models. A variety of machine learning methods has been applied in bioinformatics and metabolism analyses including self-organizing maps, support vector machines, the kernel machine, Bayesian networks or fuzzy logic. To a lesser extent, machine learning has also been utilized to take advantage of the increasing availability of genomics and metabolomics data for the optimization of metabolic network models and their analysis. In this context, machine learning has aided the development of metabolic networks, the calculation of parameters for stoichiometric and kinetic models, as well as the analysis of major features in the model for the optimal application of bioreactors. Examples of this very interesting, albeit highly complex, application of machine learning for metabolism modeling will be the primary focus of this review presenting several different types of applications for model optimization, parameter determination or system analysis using models, as well as the utilization of several different types of machine learning technologies.

Machine Learning Methods for Analysis of Metabolic Data and Metabolic Pathway Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cuperlovic-Culf, Miroslava

2018-01-01

Machine learning uses experimental data to optimize clustering or classification of samples or features, or to develop, augment or verify models that can be used to predict behavior or properties of systems. It is expected that machine learning will help provide actionable knowledge from a variety of big data including metabolomics data, as well as results of metabolism models. A variety of machine learning methods has been applied in bioinformatics and metabolism analyses including self-organizing maps, support vector machines, the kernel machine, Bayesian networks or fuzzy logic. To a lesser extent, machine learning has also been utilized to take advantage of the increasing availability of genomics and metabolomics data for the optimization of metabolic network models and their analysis. In this context, machine learning has aided the development of metabolic networks, the calculation of parameters for stoichiometric and kinetic models, as well as the analysis of major features in the model for the optimal application of bioreactors. Examples of this very interesting, albeit highly complex, application of machine learning for metabolism modeling will be the primary focus of this review presenting several different types of applications for model optimization, parameter determination or system analysis using models, as well as the utilization of several different types of machine learning technologies. PMID:29324649

Online transfer learning with extreme learning machine

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Haibo; Yang, Yun-an

2017-05-01

In this paper, we propose a new transfer learning algorithm for online training. The proposed algorithm, which is called Online Transfer Extreme Learning Machine (OTELM), is based on Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OSELM) while it introduces Semi-Supervised Extreme Learning Machine (SSELM) to transfer knowledge from the source to the target domain. With the manifold regularization, SSELM picks out instances from the source domain that are less relevant to those in the target domain to initialize the online training, so as to improve the classification performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed OTELM can effectively use instances in the source domain to enhance the learning performance.

From machine learning to deep learning: progress in machine intelligence for rational drug discovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lu; Tan, Jianjun; Han, Dan; Zhu, Hao

2017-11-01

Machine intelligence, which is normally presented as artificial intelligence, refers to the intelligence exhibited by computers. In the history of rational drug discovery, various machine intelligence approaches have been applied to guide traditional experiments, which are expensive and time-consuming. Over the past several decades, machine-learning tools, such as quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling, were developed that can identify potential biological active molecules from millions of candidate compounds quickly and cheaply. However, when drug discovery moved into the era of 'big' data, machine learning approaches evolved into deep learning approaches, which are a more powerful and efficient way to deal with the massive amounts of data generated from modern drug discovery approaches. Here, we summarize the history of machine learning and provide insight into recently developed deep learning approaches and their applications in rational drug discovery. We suggest that this evolution of machine intelligence now provides a guide for early-stage drug design and discovery in the current big data era. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microsoft Azure machine learning

CERN Document Server

Mund, Sumit

2015-01-01

The book is intended for those who want to learn how to use Azure Machine Learning. Perhaps you already know a bit about Machine Learning, but have never used ML Studio in Azure; or perhaps you are an absolute newbie. In either case, this book will get you up-and-running quickly.

e-Bitter: Bitterant Prediction by the Consensus Voting From the Machine-Learning Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suqing Zheng

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In-silico bitterant prediction received the considerable attention due to the expensive and laborious experimental-screening of the bitterant. In this work, we collect the fully experimental dataset containing 707 bitterants and 592 non-bitterants, which is distinct from the fully or partially hypothetical non-bitterant dataset used in the previous works. Based on this experimental dataset, we harness the consensus votes from the multiple machine-learning methods (e.g., deep learning etc. combined with the molecular fingerprint to build the bitter/bitterless classification models with five-fold cross-validation, which are further inspected by the Y-randomization test and applicability domain analysis. One of the best consensus models affords the accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC of 0.929, 0.918, 0.898, 0.954, 0.936, and 0.856 respectively on our test set. For the automatic prediction of bitterant, a graphic program “e-Bitter” is developed for the convenience of users via the simple mouse click. To our best knowledge, it is for the first time to adopt the consensus model for the bitterant prediction and develop the first free stand-alone software for the experimental food scientist.

Structure Based Thermostability Prediction Models for Protein Single Point Mutations with Machine Learning Tools.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Jia

Full Text Available Thermostability issue of protein point mutations is a common occurrence in protein engineering. An application which predicts the thermostability of mutants can be helpful for guiding decision making process in protein design via mutagenesis. An in silico point mutation scanning method is frequently used to find "hot spots" in proteins for focused mutagenesis. ProTherm (http://gibk26.bio.kyutech.ac.jp/jouhou/Protherm/protherm.html is a public database that consists of thousands of protein mutants' experimentally measured thermostability. Two data sets based on two differently measured thermostability properties of protein single point mutations, namely the unfolding free energy change (ddG and melting temperature change (dTm were obtained from this database. Folding free energy change calculation from Rosetta, structural information of the point mutations as well as amino acid physical properties were obtained for building thermostability prediction models with informatics modeling tools. Five supervised machine learning methods (support vector machine, random forests, artificial neural network, naïve Bayes classifier, K nearest neighbor and partial least squares regression are used for building the prediction models. Binary and ternary classifications as well as regression models were built and evaluated. Data set redundancy and balancing, the reverse mutations technique, feature selection, and comparison to other published methods were discussed. Rosetta calculated folding free energy change ranked as the most influential features in all prediction models. Other descriptors also made significant contributions to increasing the accuracy of the prediction models.

MACHINE LEARNING FOR THE SELF-ORGANIZATION OF DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS IN ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerzy Balicki

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an application of machine learning to the problem of self-organization of distributed systems has been discussed with regard to economic applications, with particular emphasis on supervised neural network learning to predict stock investments and some ratings of companies. In addition, genetic programming can play an important role in the preparation and testing of several financial information systems. For this reason, machine learning applications have been discussed because some software applications can be automatically constructed by genetic programming. To obtain a competitive advantage, machine learning can be used for the management of self-organizing cloud computing systems performing calculations for business. Also the use of selected economic self-organizing distributed systems has been described, including some testing methods of predicting borrower reliability. Finally, some conclusions and directions for further research have been proposed.

Creativity in Machine Learning

OpenAIRE

Thoma, Martin

2016-01-01

Recent machine learning techniques can be modified to produce creative results. Those results did not exist before; it is not a trivial combination of the data which was fed into the machine learning system. The obtained results come in multiple forms: As images, as text and as audio. This paper gives a high level overview of how they are created and gives some examples. It is meant to be a summary of the current work and give people who are new to machine learning some starting points.

Machine learning-based prediction of adverse drug effects: An example of seizure-inducing compounds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mengxuan Gao

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Various biological factors have been implicated in convulsive seizures, involving side effects of drugs. For the preclinical safety assessment of drug development, it is difficult to predict seizure-inducing side effects. Here, we introduced a machine learning-based in vitro system designed to detect seizure-inducing side effects. We recorded local field potentials from the CA1 alveus in acute mouse neocortico-hippocampal slices, while 14 drugs were bath-perfused at 5 different concentrations each. For each experimental condition, we collected seizure-like neuronal activity and merged their waveforms as one graphic image, which was further converted into a feature vector using Caffe, an open framework for deep learning. In the space of the first two principal components, the support vector machine completely separated the vectors (i.e., doses of individual drugs that induced seizure-like events and identified diphenhydramine, enoxacin, strychnine and theophylline as “seizure-inducing” drugs, which indeed were reported to induce seizures in clinical situations. Thus, this artificial intelligence-based classification may provide a new platform to detect the seizure-inducing side effects of preclinical drugs.

The Impact of Protein Structure and Sequence Similarity on the Accuracy of Machine-Learning Scoring Functions for Binding Affinity Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hongjian; Peng, Jiangjun; Leung, Yee; Leung, Kwong-Sak; Wong, Man-Hon; Lu, Gang; Ballester, Pedro J

2018-03-14

It has recently been claimed that the outstanding performance of machine-learning scoring functions (SFs) is exclusively due to the presence of training complexes with highly similar proteins to those in the test set. Here, we revisit this question using 24 similarity-based training sets, a widely used test set, and four SFs. Three of these SFs employ machine learning instead of the classical linear regression approach of the fourth SF (X-Score which has the best test set performance out of 16 classical SFs). We have found that random forest (RF)-based RF-Score-v3 outperforms X-Score even when 68% of the most similar proteins are removed from the training set. In addition, unlike X-Score, RF-Score-v3 is able to keep learning with an increasing training set size, becoming substantially more predictive than X-Score when the full 1105 complexes are used for training. These results show that machine-learning SFs owe a substantial part of their performance to training on complexes with dissimilar proteins to those in the test set, against what has been previously concluded using the same data. Given that a growing amount of structural and interaction data will be available from academic and industrial sources, this performance gap between machine-learning SFs and classical SFs is expected to enlarge in the future.

SVM-Prot 2016: A Web-Server for Machine Learning Prediction of Protein Functional Families from Sequence Irrespective of Similarity.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ying Hong; Xu, Jing Yu; Tao, Lin; Li, Xiao Feng; Li, Shuang; Zeng, Xian; Chen, Shang Ying; Zhang, Peng; Qin, Chu; Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Zhe; Zhu, Feng; Chen, Yu Zong

2016-01-01

Knowledge of protein function is important for biological, medical and therapeutic studies, but many proteins are still unknown in function. There is a need for more improved functional prediction methods. Our SVM-Prot web-server employed a machine learning method for predicting protein functional families from protein sequences irrespective of similarity, which complemented those similarity-based and other methods in predicting diverse classes of proteins including the distantly-related proteins and homologous proteins of different functions. Since its publication in 2003, we made major improvements to SVM-Prot with (1) expanded coverage from 54 to 192 functional families, (2) more diverse protein descriptors protein representation, (3) improved predictive performances due to the use of more enriched training datasets and more variety of protein descriptors, (4) newly integrated BLAST analysis option for assessing proteins in the SVM-Prot predicted functional families that were similar in sequence to a query protein, and (5) newly added batch submission option for supporting the classification of multiple proteins. Moreover, 2 more machine learning approaches, K nearest neighbor and probabilistic neural networks, were added for facilitating collective assessment of protein functions by multiple methods. SVM-Prot can be accessed at http://bidd2.nus.edu.sg/cgi-bin/svmprot/svmprot.cgi.

Tyrosine Kinase Ligand-Receptor Pair Prediction by Using Support Vector Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masayuki Yarimizu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Receptor tyrosine kinases are essential proteins involved in cellular differentiation and proliferation in vivo and are heavily involved in allergic diseases, diabetes, and onset/proliferation of cancerous cells. Identifying the interacting partner of this protein, a growth factor ligand, will provide a deeper understanding of cellular proliferation/differentiation and other cell processes. In this study, we developed a method for predicting tyrosine kinase ligand-receptor pairs from their amino acid sequences. We collected tyrosine kinase ligand-receptor pairs from the Database of Interacting Proteins (DIP and UniProtKB, filtered them by removing sequence redundancy, and used them as a dataset for machine learning and assessment of predictive performance. Our prediction method is based on support vector machines (SVMs, and we evaluated several input features suitable for tyrosine kinase for machine learning and compared and analyzed the results. Using sequence pattern information and domain information extracted from sequences as input features, we obtained 0.996 of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. This accuracy is higher than that obtained from general protein-protein interaction pair predictions.

Machine learning methods to predict child posttraumatic stress: a proof of concept study.

Science.gov (United States)

Saxe, Glenn N; Ma, Sisi; Ren, Jiwen; Aliferis, Constantin

2017-07-10

The care of traumatized children would benefit significantly from accurate predictive models for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), using information available around the time of trauma. Machine Learning (ML) computational methods have yielded strong results in recent applications across many diseases and data types, yet they have not been previously applied to childhood PTSD. Since these methods have not been applied to this complex and debilitating disorder, there is a great deal that remains to be learned about their application. The first step is to prove the concept: Can ML methods - as applied in other fields - produce predictive classification models for childhood PTSD? Additionally, we seek to determine if specific variables can be identified - from the aforementioned predictive classification models - with putative causal relations to PTSD. ML predictive classification methods - with causal discovery feature selection - were applied to a data set of 163 children hospitalized with an injury and PTSD was determined three months after hospital discharge. At the time of hospitalization, 105 risk factor variables were collected spanning a range of biopsychosocial domains. Seven percent of subjects had a high level of PTSD symptoms. A predictive classification model was discovered with significant predictive accuracy. A predictive model constructed based on subsets of potentially causally relevant features achieves similar predictivity compared to the best predictive model constructed with all variables. Causal Discovery feature selection methods identified 58 variables of which 10 were identified as most stable. In this first proof-of-concept application of ML methods to predict childhood Posttraumatic Stress we were able to determine both predictive classification models for childhood PTSD and identify several causal variables. This set of techniques has great potential for enhancing the methodological toolkit in the field and future studies should seek to

Machine learning with R cookbook

CERN Document Server

Chiu, Yu-Wei

2015-01-01

If you want to learn how to use R for machine learning and gain insights from your data, then this book is ideal for you. Regardless of your level of experience, this book covers the basics of applying R to machine learning through to advanced techniques. While it is helpful if you are familiar with basic programming or machine learning concepts, you do not require prior experience to benefit from this book.

Combining structural modeling with ensemble machine learning to accurately predict protein fold stability and binding affinity effects upon mutation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niklas Berliner

Full Text Available Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases.

Machine learning for epigenetics and future medical applications

OpenAIRE

Holder, Lawrence B.; Haque, M. Muksitul; Skinner, Michael K.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Understanding epigenetic processes holds immense promise for medical applications. Advances in Machine Learning (ML) are critical to realize this promise. Previous studies used epigenetic data sets associated with the germline transmission of epigenetic transgenerational inheritance of disease and novel ML approaches to predict genome-wide locations of critical epimutations. A combination of Active Learning (ACL) and Imbalanced Class Learning (ICL) was used to address past problems w...

A Novel Machine Learning Strategy Based on Two-Dimensional Numerical Models in Financial Engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qingzhen Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Machine learning is the most commonly used technique to address larger and more complex tasks by analyzing the most relevant information already present in databases. In order to better predict the future trend of the index, this paper proposes a two-dimensional numerical model for machine learning to simulate major U.S. stock market index and uses a nonlinear implicit finite-difference method to find numerical solutions of the two-dimensional simulation model. The proposed machine learning method uses partial differential equations to predict the stock market and can be extensively used to accelerate large-scale data processing on the history database. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm reduces the prediction error and improves forecasting precision.

Comparing deep neural network and other machine learning algorithms for stroke prediction in a large-scale population-based electronic medical claims database.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen-Ying Hung; Wei-Chen Chen; Po-Tsun Lai; Ching-Heng Lin; Chi-Chun Lee

2017-07-01

Electronic medical claims (EMCs) can be used to accurately predict the occurrence of a variety of diseases, which can contribute to precise medical interventions. While there is a growing interest in the application of machine learning (ML) techniques to address clinical problems, the use of deep-learning in healthcare have just gained attention recently. Deep learning, such as deep neural network (DNN), has achieved impressive results in the areas of speech recognition, computer vision, and natural language processing in recent years. However, deep learning is often difficult to comprehend due to the complexities in its framework. Furthermore, this method has not yet been demonstrated to achieve a better performance comparing to other conventional ML algorithms in disease prediction tasks using EMCs. In this study, we utilize a large population-based EMC database of around 800,000 patients to compare DNN with three other ML approaches for predicting 5-year stroke occurrence. The result shows that DNN and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) can result in similarly high prediction accuracies that are better compared to logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM) approaches. Meanwhile, DNN achieves optimal results by using lesser amounts of patient data when comparing to GBDT method.

Using Machine Learning in Adversarial Environments.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, Warren Leon [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-02-01

Intrusion/anomaly detection systems are among the first lines of cyber defense. Commonly, they either use signatures or machine learning (ML) to identify threats, but fail to account for sophisticated attackers trying to circumvent them. We propose to embed machine learning within a game theoretic framework that performs adversarial modeling, develops methods for optimizing operational response based on ML, and integrates the resulting optimization codebase into the existing ML infrastructure developed by the Hybrid LDRD. Our approach addresses three key shortcomings of ML in adversarial settings: 1) resulting classifiers are typically deterministic and, therefore, easy to reverse engineer; 2) ML approaches only address the prediction problem, but do not prescribe how one should operationalize predictions, nor account for operational costs and constraints; and 3) ML approaches do not model attackers’ response and can be circumvented by sophisticated adversaries. The principal novelty of our approach is to construct an optimization framework that blends ML, operational considerations, and a model predicting attackers reaction, with the goal of computing optimal moving target defense. One important challenge is to construct a realistic model of an adversary that is tractable, yet realistic. We aim to advance the science of attacker modeling by considering game-theoretic methods, and by engaging experimental subjects with red teaming experience in trying to actively circumvent an intrusion detection system, and learning a predictive model of such circumvention activities. In addition, we will generate metrics to test that a particular model of an adversary is consistent with available data.

Machine Learning meets Mathematical Optimization to predict the optimal production of offshore wind parks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fischetti, Martina; Fraccaro, Marco

2018-01-01

In this paper we propose a combination of Mathematical Optimization and Machine Learning to estimate the value of optimized solutions. In particular, we investigate if a machine, trained on a large number of optimized solutions, could accurately estimate the value of the optimized solution for new...... in production between optimized/non optimized solutions, it is not trivial to understand the potential value of a new site without running a complete optimization. This could be too time consuming if a lot of sites need to be evaluated, therefore we propose to use Machine Learning to quickly estimate...... the potential of new sites (i.e., to estimate the optimized production of a site without explicitly running the optimization). To do so, we trained and tested different Machine Learning models on a dataset of 3000+ optimized layouts found by the optimizer. Thanks to the close collaboration with a leading...

Use of Machine-Learning Approaches to Predict Clinical Deterioration in Critically Ill Patients: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadashi Kamio

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Early identification of patients with unexpected clinical deterioration is a matter of serious concern. Previous studies have shown that early intervention on a patient whose health is deteriorating improves the patient outcome, and machine-learning-based approaches to predict clinical deterioration may contribute to precision improvement. To date, however, no systematic review in this area is available. Methods: We completed a search on PubMed on January 22, 2017 as well as a review of the articles identified by study authors involved in this area of research following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews. Results: Twelve articles were selected for the current study from 273 articles initially obtained from the PubMed searches. Eleven of the 12 studies were retrospective studies, and no randomized controlled trials were performed. Although the artificial neural network techniques were the most frequently used and provided high precision and accuracy, we failed to identify articles that showed improvement in the patient outcome. Limitations were reported related to generalizability, complexity of models, and technical knowledge. Conclusions: This review shows that machine-learning approaches can improve prediction of clinical deterioration compared with traditional methods. However, these techniques will require further external validation before widespread clinical acceptance can be achieved.

Research on bearing life prediction based on support vector machine and its application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Chuang; Zhang Zhousuo; He Zhengjia

2011-01-01

Life prediction of rolling element bearing is the urgent demand in engineering practice, and the effective life prediction technique is beneficial to predictive maintenance. Support vector machine (SVM) is a novel machine learning method based on statistical learning theory, and is of advantage in prediction. This paper develops SVM-based model for bearing life prediction. The inputs of the model are features of bearing vibration signal and the output is the bearing running time-bearing failure time ratio. The model is built base on a few failed bearing data, and it can fuse information of the predicted bearing. So it is of advantage to bearing life prediction in practice. The model is applied to life prediction of a bearing, and the result shows the proposed model is of high precision.

Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python

OpenAIRE

Pedregosa, Fabian; Varoquaux, Gaël; Gramfort, Alexandre; Michel, Vincent; Thirion, Bertrand; Grisel, Olivier; Blondel, Mathieu; Prettenhofer, Peter; Weiss, Ron; Dubourg, Vincent; Vanderplas, Jake; Passos, Alexandre; Cournapeau, David; Brucher, Matthieu; Perrot, Matthieu

2011-01-01

International audience; Scikit-learn is a Python module integrating a wide range of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for medium-scale supervised and unsupervised problems. This package focuses on bringing machine learning to non-specialists using a general-purpose high-level language. Emphasis is put on ease of use, performance, documentation, and API consistency. It has minimal dependencies and is distributed under the simplified BSD license, encouraging its use in both academic ...

Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python

OpenAIRE

Pedregosa, Fabian; Varoquaux, Gaël; Gramfort, Alexandre; Michel, Vincent; Thirion, Bertrand; Grisel, Olivier; Blondel, Mathieu; Louppe, Gilles; Prettenhofer, Peter; Weiss, Ron; Dubourg, Vincent; Vanderplas, Jake; Passos, Alexandre; Cournapeau, David; Brucher, Matthieu

2012-01-01

Scikit-learn is a Python module integrating a wide range of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for medium-scale supervised and unsupervised problems. This package focuses on bringing machine learning to non-specialists using a general-purpose high-level language. Emphasis is put on ease of use, performance, documentation, and API consistency. It has minimal dependencies and is distributed under the simplified BSD license, encouraging its use in both academic and commercial settings....

Deep learning methods for protein torsion angle prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haiou; Hou, Jie; Adhikari, Badri; Lyu, Qiang; Cheng, Jianlin

2017-09-18

Deep learning is one of the most powerful machine learning methods that has achieved the state-of-the-art performance in many domains. Since deep learning was introduced to the field of bioinformatics in 2012, it has achieved success in a number of areas such as protein residue-residue contact prediction, secondary structure prediction, and fold recognition. In this work, we developed deep learning methods to improve the prediction of torsion (dihedral) angles of proteins. We design four different deep learning architectures to predict protein torsion angles. The architectures including deep neural network (DNN) and deep restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBN), deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) and deep recurrent restricted Boltzmann machine (DReRBM) since the protein torsion angle prediction is a sequence related problem. In addition to existing protein features, two new features (predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments) are used as input to each of the four deep learning architectures to predict phi and psi angles of protein backbone. The mean absolute error (MAE) of phi and psi angles predicted by DRNN, DReRBM, DRBM and DNN is about 20-21° and 29-30° on an independent dataset. The MAE of phi angle is comparable to the existing methods, but the MAE of psi angle is 29°, 2° lower than the existing methods. On the latest CASP12 targets, our methods also achieved the performance better than or comparable to a state-of-the art method. Our experiment demonstrates that deep learning is a valuable method for predicting protein torsion angles. The deep recurrent network architecture performs slightly better than deep feed-forward architecture, and the predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments are useful features for improving prediction accuracy.

Energy landscapes for a machine learning application to series data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ballard, Andrew J.; Stevenson, Jacob D.; Das, Ritankar; Wales, David J., E-mail: dw34@cam.ac.uk [University Chemical Laboratories, Lensfield Road, Cambridge CB2 1EW (United Kingdom)

2016-03-28

Methods developed to explore and characterise potential energy landscapes are applied to the corresponding landscapes obtained from optimisation of a cost function in machine learning. We consider neural network predictions for the outcome of local geometry optimisation in a triatomic cluster, where four distinct local minima exist. The accuracy of the predictions is compared for fits using data from single and multiple points in the series of atomic configurations resulting from local geometry optimisation and for alternative neural networks. The machine learning solution landscapes are visualised using disconnectivity graphs, and signatures in the effective heat capacity are analysed in terms of distributions of local minima and their properties.

Energy landscapes for a machine learning application to series data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballard, Andrew J.; Stevenson, Jacob D.; Das, Ritankar; Wales, David J.

2016-01-01

Methods developed to explore and characterise potential energy landscapes are applied to the corresponding landscapes obtained from optimisation of a cost function in machine learning. We consider neural network predictions for the outcome of local geometry optimisation in a triatomic cluster, where four distinct local minima exist. The accuracy of the predictions is compared for fits using data from single and multiple points in the series of atomic configurations resulting from local geometry optimisation and for alternative neural networks. The machine learning solution landscapes are visualised using disconnectivity graphs, and signatures in the effective heat capacity are analysed in terms of distributions of local minima and their properties.

Comparison of Advanced Machine Learning Tools for Disruption Prediction and Disruption Studies

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Odstrčil, Michal; Murari, A.; Mlynář, Jan

2013-01-01

Roč. 41, č. 7 (2013), s. 1751-1759 ISSN 0093-3813 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP205/10/2055 Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : Learning Machines * Support Vector Machines * Neural Network * ASDEX Upgrade * JET * Disruption mitigation * Tokamaks * ITER Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 0.950, year: 2013

MACHINE LEARNING FOR THE SELF-ORGANIZATION OF DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS IN ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

OpenAIRE

Jerzy Balicki; Waldemar Korłub

2017-01-01

In this paper, an application of machine learning to the problem of self-organization of distributed systems has been discussed with regard to economic applications, with particular emphasis on supervised neural network learning to predict stock investments and some ratings of companies. In addition, genetic programming can play an important role in the preparation and testing of several financial information systems. For this reason, machine learning applications have been discussed because ...

On the Safety of Machine Learning: Cyber-Physical Systems, Decision Sciences, and Data Products.

Science.gov (United States)

Varshney, Kush R; Alemzadeh, Homa

2017-09-01

Machine learning algorithms increasingly influence our decisions and interact with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just as we consider the safety of power plants, highways, and a variety of other engineered socio-technical systems, we must also take into account the safety of systems involving machine learning. Heretofore, the definition of safety has not been formalized in a machine learning context. In this article, we do so by defining machine learning safety in terms of risk, epistemic uncertainty, and the harm incurred by unwanted outcomes. We then use this definition to examine safety in all sorts of applications in cyber-physical systems, decision sciences, and data products. We find that the foundational principle of modern statistical machine learning, empirical risk minimization, is not always a sufficient objective. We discuss how four different categories of strategies for achieving safety in engineering, including inherently safe design, safety reserves, safe fail, and procedural safeguards can be mapped to a machine learning context. We then discuss example techniques that can be adopted in each category, such as considering interpretability and causality of predictive models, objective functions beyond expected prediction accuracy, human involvement for labeling difficult or rare examples, and user experience design of software and open data.