WorldWideScience

Sample records for lsm hydrometeorological change

  1. Polarization Induced Changes in LSM Thin Film Electrode Composition Observed by In Operando Raman Spectroscopy and TOF-SIMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntyre, Melissa D.; Walker, Robert; Traulsen, Marie Lund

    2015-01-01

    an applied potential.1-3 The presented work explores the polarisation induced changes in LSM electrode composition by utilizing in operando Raman spectroscopy and post mortem ToF-SIMS depth profiling on LSM thin film model electrodes fabricated by pulsed laser deposition on YSZ substrates with a thin (200 nm...... recorded through the LSM thin film electrodes and revealed distinct compositional changes throughout the electrodes (Figure 2). The electrode elements and impurities separated into distinct layers that were more pronounced for the stronger applied polarisations. The mechanism behind this separation...

  2. Polarization Induced Changes in LSM Thin Film Electrode Composition Observed by In Operando Raman Spectroscopy and TOF-SIMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntyre, Melissa D.; Traulsen, Marie Lund; Norrman, Kion

    2015-01-01

    Polarization induced changes in LSM electrode composition were investigated by utilizing in operando Raman spectroscopy and post mortem TOF-SIMS depth profiling. Experiments were conducted on cells with 160 nm thick (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3±δ thin film electrodes in 10% O2 at 700 °C under various...

  3. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  4. Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

  5. Deletion of the Sm1 encoding motif in the lsm gene results in distinct changes in the transcriptome and enhanced swarming activity of Haloferax cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Lisa-Katharina; Benz, Juliane; Fischer, Susan; Alstetter, Martina; Jaschinski, Katharina; Hilker, Rolf; Becker, Anke; Allers, Thorsten; Soppa, Jörg; Marchfelder, Anita

    2015-10-01

    Members of the Sm protein family are important for the cellular RNA metabolism in all three domains of life. The family includes archaeal and eukaryotic Lsm proteins, eukaryotic Sm proteins and archaeal and bacterial Hfq proteins. While several studies concerning the bacterial and eukaryotic family members have been published, little is known about the archaeal Lsm proteins. Although structures for several archaeal Lsm proteins have been solved already more than ten years ago, we still do not know much about their biological function, however one can confidently propose that the archaeal Lsm proteins will also be involved in RNA metabolism. Therefore, we investigated this protein in the halophilic archaeon Haloferax volcanii. The Haloferax genome encodes a single Lsm protein, the lsm gene overlaps and is co-transcribed with the gene for the ribosomal L37.eR protein. Here, we show that the reading frame of the lsm gene contains a promoter which regulates expression of the overlapping rpl37R gene. This rpl37R specific promoter ensures high expression of the rpl37R gene in exponential growth phase. To investigate the biological function of the Lsm protein we generated a lsm deletion mutant that had the coding sequence for the Sm1 motif removed but still contained the internal promoter for the downstream rpl37R gene. The transcriptome of this deletion mutant was compared to the wild type transcriptome, revealing that several genes are down-regulated and many genes are up-regulated in the deletion strain. Northern blot analyses confirmed down-regulation of two genes. In addition, the deletion strain showed a gain of function in swarming, in congruence with the up-regulation of transcripts encoding proteins required for motility. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Dealing with uncertainties in impact studies of climate change on hydrometeorological series over Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Garcia Cardenas, R.; Tetay Botia, C.; Giraldo Osorio, J.; Erena Arrabal, M.; Baille, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Segura River Basin (SRB) located in the South East of Spain, is affected by recurrent drought and water scarcity episodes. This basin presents the lowest percentage of renewable water resources of all the Spanish basins. Intensive reforestation has been carried out in the region, to halt desertification and erosion, which added to climate change and variability, do not allow the default assumption of stationarity in the water resources systems. Therefore, the study of effects in hydrometeorological series should be addressed by nonstationary probabilistic models that allow describing the time evolution of their probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the present work, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shaper) approach is applied to identify of spatio-temporal trends in observed precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), at basin scale. Several previous studies have addressed the potential impacts of climate change in water supply systems, focusing on the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate. Considering the use of a conceptual hydrological model with few parameters, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data, are assessed. The conclusions of this study represent a breakthrough in the development of methodologies to understand and anticipate the impacts on water resources systems, in the light of current and future climate conditions, considering hydroclimatic non-stationarity. These findings are expected to contribute to the management of conditions of water resources scarcity and droughts, such as the observed in the SRB, as support to decision-making process by stakeholders.

  7. A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

  8. Impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Volta Basin, West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguntunde, Philip G.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lischeid, Gunnar

    2017-08-01

    This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970-2013, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100) were analyzed for the study. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were used to quantify runoff. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is generally consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA ensemble medians (RMED) give realistic simulations of drought characteristics and area extent over the Basin and the sub-catchments in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and spatial extent are projected over VRB for SPEI and SPI, but the magnitude of increase is higher with SPEI than with SPI. Drought frequency (events per decade) may be magnified by a factor of 1.2 (2046-2065) to 1.6 (2081-2100) compared to the present day episodes in the basin. The coupling between streamflow and drought episodes was very strong (P planning how to minimize the negative impacts of future climate change that could have consequences on agriculture, water resources and energy supply.

  9. Evaluating short-term hydro-meteorological fluxes using GRACE-derived water storage changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicker, A.; Jensen, L.; Springer, A.; Kusche, J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets, which represent important boundary conditions for both climate modeling and hydrological studies, are linked by evapotranspiration (E) and precipitation (P). These fields are provided by numerical weather prediction models and atmospheric reanalyses such as ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land; yet, in particular the quality of E is still not well evaluated. Via the terrestrial water budget equation, water storage changes derived from products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined with runoff (R) data can be used to assess the realism of atmospheric models. In this contribution we will investigate the closure of the water balance for short-term fluxes, i.e. the agreement of GRACE water storage changes with P-E-R flux time series from different (global and regional) atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, as well as observation-based data sets. Missing river runoff observations will be extrapolated using the calibrated rainfall-runoff model GR2M. We will perform a global analysis and will additionally focus on selected river basins in West Africa. The investigations will be carried out for various temporal scales, focusing on short-term fluxes down to daily variations to be detected in daily GRACE time series.

  10. The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Katia De Avila

    My thesis focuses on improving the quantification of the hydrological cycle and understanding the atmospheric processes that link weather to climate in the Amazon River basin. By using ERA40 and independent observations, I assess how well we can estimate the surface water budget in the Amazon River basin. I find that ERA40 basin wide annual precipitation (P) overall agrees with observations showing a slight underestimation of 10% in average, whereas runoff (R) is underestimated by a larger margin (˜25%). Observed residual of precipitation and runoff (denoted as P-R) is better estimated by ERA40 P-R than actual ET which includes soil moisture nudging. The causes for said discrepancies were found to partly relate to soil moisture nudging that needs to be applied during the dry season to produce realistic ET and compensate for the low soil moisture recharge during the previous wet season. Insufficient recharge may in part be caused by underestimation of rainfall amount and intensity; moreover the shallow root layer in the model does not represent the deep soil water reservoir characteristic of the Amazonian forest. Whether the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in the Amazon have changed during the past few decades is a highly debatable but central question for detecting climate change in the region. The second part of my thesis focus on the physical links between rainfall changes detected in observations, and changes of synoptic scale systems as represented by ERA40. My results suggest that an observed delayed wet season onset is consistent with a decreasing number of cold air incursion (CAI) days in southern Amazon for the period 1979--2001. The variability of CAI into southern Amazon is related to the variability of SST upstream of South America in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. A Singular Value Decomposition Analysis (SVD) between CAI days and global SST reveal three main modes of co-variability. The first mode describes the effect of the El Nino

  11. Hydrometeorological Automated Data System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Office of Hydrologic Development of the National Weather Service operates HADS, the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System. This data set contains the last 48...

  12. CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

    2014-05-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

  13. LSM-YSZ Reactions in Different Atmospheres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Ming; Liu, Yi-Lin; Hagen, Anke

    2009-01-01

    -powder reaction. LSM reacts differently with YSZ in different atmospheres. In air, m-ZrO2 (monoclinic) is formed; while in N2, SrZrO3 and/or La2Zr2O7 are formed depending on the initial LSM/YSZ ratio. The reactions are reversible with varying P(O2) i.e. treating the sample in air after the heat treatment in N2...

  14. Conformation of LSM/YSZ and LSM ceramic films obtained by the citrate and solid mixture techniques; Conformacao de filmes ceramicos de LSM e LSM/YSZ obtidos pelas tecnicas citratos e mistura de solidos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiba, R.; Vargas, R.A.; Andreoli, M.; Seo, E.S.M., E-mail: rchiba@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (CCTM/IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Centro de Ciencia e Tecnologia de Materiais. Lab. de SOFC - Insumos e Componentes

    2009-07-01

    In this work, the ceramic films of LSM/YSZ (strontium-doped lanthanum manganite/Yttria-stabilized zirconia) and LSM used as cathodes of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) are conformed by the wet powder spraying technique. The composite LSM/YSZ was obtained by the solid mixture technique and LSM by the citrate technique. For the formation of the LSM/YSZ and LSM ceramic films was necessary the preparation of dispersed ceramic suspensions for the deposition in YSZ substrate, used as electrolyte of the CaCOS. These powders were conformed using an aerograph for the deposition of the LSM/YSZ and LSM thin films of approximately 40 microns. The half-cells had been characterized by X-ray diffractometry (XRD), identifying the phases hexagonal (LSM) and cubica (YSZ). And electronic scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to evaluate the adherence and porosity of the ceramic films according to the characteristics of the cathode. (author)

  15. SOFC LSM:YSZ cathode degradation induced by moisture: An impedance spectroscopy study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmi; Mogensen, Mogens Bjerg

    2011-01-01

    The cause of the degradation effect of moisture during operation of LSM cathode based SOFCs has been investigated by means of a detailed impedance characterization on LSM:YSZ composite cathode based SOFCs. Further the role of YSZ as cathode composite material was studied by measurements on SOFCs...... with a LSM:CGO composite cathode on a CGO interdiffusion barrier layer. It was found that both types of cathodes showed similar electrochemical characteristics towards the presence of moisture during operation. Upon addition and removal of moisture in the fed air the impedance study showed a change...... in the high frequency cathode arc, which is associated with the charge transport/transfer at the LSM/YSZ interface. On prolonged operation with the presence of moisture an ongoing increase in the high frequency cathode arc resulted in a permanent loss of cathode/electrolyte contact and thus increase...

  16. Changes in hydro-meteorological conditions over tropical West Africa (1980-2015) and links to global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Awange, Joseph L.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa

    2018-03-01

    The role of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating rainfall in the African region has been widely studied and is now less debated. However, their impacts and links to terrestrial water storage (TWS) in general, have not been studied. This study presents the pioneer results of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of TWS derived from both global reanalysis data (1980-2015) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) (2002-2014) with SST fields. The main issues discussed include, (i) oceanic hot spots that impact on TWS over tropical West Africa (TWA) based on CCA, (ii) long term changes in model and global reanalysis data (soil moisture, TWS, and groundwater) and the influence of climate variability on these hydrological indicators, and (iii) the hydrological characteristics of the Equatorial region of Africa (i.e., the Congo basin) based on GRACE-derived TWS, river discharge, and precipitation. Results of the CCA diagnostics show that El-Niño Southern Oscillation related equatorial Pacific SST fluctuations is a major index of climate variability identified in the main portion of the CCA procedure that indicates a significant association with long term TWS reanalysis data over TWA (r = 0.50, ρ < 0.05). Based on Mann-Kendall's statistics, the study found fairly large long term declines (ρ < 0.05) in TWS and soil moisture (1982 - 2015), mostly over the Congo basin, which coincided with warming of the land surface and the surrounding oceans. Meanwhile, some parts of the Sahel show significant wetting (rainfall, soil moisture, groundwater, and TWS) trends during the same period (1982-2015) and aligns with the ongoing narratives of rainfall recovery in the region. Results of singular spectral analysis and regression confirm that multi-annual changes in the Congo River discharge explained a considerable proportion of variability in GRACE-hydrological signal over the Congo basin (r = 0.86 and R2 = 0.70, ρ < 0.05). Finally, leading

  17. Statistical variability of hydro-meteorological variables as indicators ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Statistical variability of hydro-meteorological variables as indicators of climate change in north-east Sokoto-Rima basin, Nigeria. ... water resources development including water supply project, agriculture and tourism in the study area. Key word: Climate change, Climatic variability, Actual evapotranspiration, Global warming ...

  18. Formation and confinement of FRCs in FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.; Crawford, E.A.; Hugrass, W.N.

    1988-01-01

    The Large Source Modification of FRX-C (FRX-C/LSM) consists of a 50% increase in radius without a commensurate increase in either the coil length or capacitor bank energy. Previous studies in FRX-C/LSM compared tearing and nontearing formation in a coil arrangement which included passive mirrors and auxiliary cusp coils. The present studies use a straight coil (0.35 m radius, 2.0 m length) without passive mirrors; in this case, the cusp coils promote nontearing formation and provide mirror fields to inhibit axial drifting. This arrangement increases the length (from 1.3--2.0 m) and the length-to-diameter ratio (from 1.7--2.9) of the uniform field region. It also increases the implosion electric field from 28 to 32 kV/m. These changes tend to produce more elongated FRCs, but in all cases the axial equilibrium appears not to be influenced by the mirror fields. The FRCs are formed using a deuterium static fill varying from 2--10 mtorr, a bias field varying from 0.05--0.10 T, and preionization consisting of a zero-crossing ringing θ-pinch discharge aided by a 10 MHz RF generator. 10 refs., 2 figs

  19. Dual RNA Processing Roles of Pat1b via Cytoplasmic Lsm1-7 and Nuclear Lsm2-8 Complexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Vindry

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Pat1 RNA-binding proteins, enriched in processing bodies (P bodies, are key players in cytoplasmic 5′ to 3′ mRNA decay, activating decapping of mRNA in complex with the Lsm1-7 heptamer. Using co-immunoprecipitation and immunofluorescence approaches coupled with RNAi, we provide evidence for a nuclear complex of Pat1b with the Lsm2-8 heptamer, which binds to the spliceosomal U6 small nuclear RNA (snRNA. Furthermore, we establish the set of interactions connecting Pat1b/Lsm2-8/U6 snRNA/SART3 and additional U4/U6.U5 tri-small nuclear ribonucleoprotein particle (tri-snRNP components in Cajal bodies, the site of snRNP biogenesis. RNA sequencing following Pat1b depletion revealed the preferential upregulation of mRNAs normally found in P bodies and enriched in 3′ UTR AU-rich elements. Changes in >180 alternative splicing events were also observed, characterized by skipping of regulated exons with weak donor sites. Our data demonstrate the dual role of a decapping enhancer in pre-mRNA processing as well as in mRNA decay via distinct nuclear and cytoplasmic Lsm complexes.

  20. The FRX-C/LSM compression experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rej, D.J.; Siemon, R.E.; Taggart, D.P.

    1989-01-01

    After two years of preparation, hardware for high-power FRC compression heating studies is now being installed onto FRX-C/LSM. FRCs will be formed and translated out of the θ-pinch source, and into a compressor where the external B-field will be increased from 0.4 to 2 T in 55 μs. The compressed FRC can then be translated into a third stage for further study. A principal experimental goal is to study FRC confinement at the high energy density, n(T/sub e/ + T/sub i/) ≤ 1.0 /times/ 10 22 keV/m 3 , associated with the large external field. Experiments are scheduled to begin in April. 11 refs., 5 figs

  1. Impregnation of LSM Based Cathodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højberg, Jonathan; Søgaard, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Composites cathodes consisting of strontium doped lanthanum manganite (LSM) and yttria stabilized zirconia have been impregnated with the nitrates corresponding to the nominal compositions: La0.75Sr0.25Mn1.05O3 +/-delta (LSM25), Ce0.8Sm0.2O2 (SDC) and a combination of both (dual). The latter...

  2. Hydrometeorological Research in South Africa: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina M. Botai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of the world are of great concern, as they are closely linked to the wellbeing of humankind. Sophisticated hydrological prediction tools are required to assess climatic and hydrometeorological conditions, as they impact the sustainability of water resources as well as water availability. Research and data collection activities from multi-hydrometeorological sensors (e.g., gauges, radars, satellites form the basis for quantifying the impact of extreme episodes along the hydrologic phases that manifest in terms of the magnitude, duration and frequency of floods, droughts and other hydrometeorological hazards that affect water resources management. A number of hydrometeorological research activities have been reported in the literature by various researchers and research groups globally. This contribution presents (a a review of the hydrometeorology resource landscape in South Africa; (b an analysis of the hydrometeorology services and products in South Africa; (c a review of the hydrometeorological research that has been conducted in South Africa for the last four decades; and (d highlights on some of the challenges facing the sustained advancement of research in hydrometeorology in South Africa.

  3. Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys data are based on observations made by personnel for three river basins: Amu Darya, Sir Darya, and...

  4. Effect of Aging on the Electrochemical Performance of LSM-YSZ Cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baqué, L. C.; Jørgensen, Peter Stanley; Zhang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    resistance shows no clear tendency with aging time, while the ionic conductivity decreases up to ∼79%. Accordingly, the electrochemically active thickness contracts from 60–135 μm to 45–60 μm. The changes observed in the cathode transport and electrochemical properties are mostly explained by the evolution......Investigations of degradation mechanisms of solid oxide fuel cells are crucial for achieving a widespread commercialization of the technology. In this work, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was applied for studying the aging effect on LSM-YSZ cathodes exposed to humidified air at 900°C...... for up to 3000 h. EIS spectra were fitted by a transmission line model for estimating relevant parameters associated with the LSM/YSZ charge transfer reaction and the oxide ion conduction through the YSZ network. For the reference non-aged sample, the ionic conductivity values are the expected ones...

  5. Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2017-09-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

  6. LSM-YSZ Cathodes with Reaction-Infiltrated Nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Chun; Sholklapper, Tal Z.; Jacobson, Craig P.; Visco, StevenJ.; De Jonghe, Lutgard C.

    2006-01-01

    To improve the LSM-YSZ cathode performance of intermediate temperature solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), Sm0.6Sr0.4CoO3-sigma (SSC) perovskite nanoparticles are incorporated into the cathodes by a reaction-infiltration process. The SSC particles are ∼20 to 80nm in diameter, and intimately adhere to the pore walls of the preformed LSM-YSZ cathodes. The SSC particles dramatically enhance single-cell performance with a 97 percent H2+3 percent H2O fuel, between 600 C and 800 C. Consideration of a simplified TPB (triple phase boundary) reaction geometry indicates that the enhancement may be attributed to the high electrocatalytic activity of SSC for electrochemical reduction of oxygen in a region that can be located a small distance away from the strict triple phase boundaries. The implication of this work for developing high-performance electrodes is also discussed

  7. Development of Self-made LSM Software using in Neuroscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doronin, Maxim; Makovkin, Sergey; Popov, Alexander

    2017-07-01

    One of the main and modern visualization method in neuroscience is two-photon microscopy. However, scientists need to upgrade their microscopy system so regular because they are interested to get more specific data. Self-developed microscopy system allows to modify the construction of microscope in not-complicated manner depending on specialized experimental models and scientific tasks. Earlier we reported about building of self-made laser scanning microscope (LSM) using in neuroscience both for in vivo and in vitro experiments. Here we will report how to create software AMAScan for LSM controlling in MATLAB. The work was performed with financial support of the government represented by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, the unique identifier of the project is RFMEFI58115X0016, the agreement on granting a subsidy №14.581.21.0016 dated 14.10.2015.

  8. ICT-based hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Clematis, A.; Craig, G. C.; Kranzmueller, D.

    2009-09-01

    research by bridging the gaps between these two scientific communities. Furthermore the project is intended to transfer the results to areas beyond the strict hydrometeorology science as a support for the assessment of the effects of extreme hydrometeorological events on society and for the development of the tools improving the adaptation and resilience of society to the challenges of climate change.

  9. Peran LSM Dalam Resolusi Konflik Tapal Batas Antara Nagari Sumpur Dengan Nagari Bungo Tanjuang, Kabupaten Tanah Datar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Rahmadani

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Third parties in the resolution of conflictwas expected to change the behavior of the parties in conflict, even pushed the parties toward an agreement to end the conflict. NGO as the third party is seen independent and can be fair in the resolution of conflict, can do some attempts to encourage the parties in conflict toward an agreement.One example of conflict involving NGO in an effort to resolve the boundary conflicts between Nagari Sumpur and Nagari Bungo Tanjuang, regency of Tanah Datar. Assignment NGO as mediator in resolution of conflict after several attempts taken by the government. This article explained the various efforts and achievement has done by NGO as mediator resolution of conflict both nagari until the formation of representative group become key success in mediation. In addition in this article is also explained the reason NGO that has not been able to achieve an aggrement in resolution of conflict both nagari. Pihak ketiga dalam resolusi konflik diharapkan dapat merubah perilaku para pihak yang berkonflik, bahkan mendorong para pihak menuju kesepakatan untuk mengakhiri konflik. LSM sebagai pihak ketiga dipandang independen dan dapat bersikap adil dalam resolusi konflik, dapat melakukan beberapa upaya untuk mendorong pihak yang berkonflik menuju kesepakatan. Salah satu contoh konflik yang melibatkan LSM dalam penyelesaiannya adalah konflik tapal batas antara Nagari Sumpur dengan Nagari Bungo Tanjuang, Kabupaten Tanah Datar. Penunjukan LSM sebagai mediator dalam penyelesaian konflik setelah beberapa upaya yang ditempuh oleh beberapa pihak dari pemerintahan. Tulisan ini memaparkan berbagai upaya dan pencapaian yang telah dilakukan LSM sebagai mediator penyelesaian konflik kedua nagari hingga terbentuknya perwakilan kelompok yang menjadi kunci keberhasilan dalam mediasi. Selain itu dalam tulisan ini juga memaparkan alasan LSM yang belum mampu mencapai kesepakatan dalam penyelesaian konflik kedua nagari.

  10. Study of the formation of secondary phases in the composite LSM/YSZ; Estudo da formacao de fases secundarias no composito LSM/YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Ranieri Andrade

    2007-07-01

    The composite of strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (La{sub 1-x}SrxMnO{sub 3} - LSM) and Yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO{sub 2}/Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} - YSZ), is indicated as cathode of the Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC). It presents better acting as cathode due to the Triple Phase Boundary (TPB) formed in the interface area between the cathode and the electrolyte. For the temperatures up to 1100 deg C, LSM and YSZ can react producing lanthanum zirconate (La{sub 2}Zr{sub 2}O{sub 7} - LZO) and strontium zirconate (SrZrO{sub 3} - SZO). In this sense, the present work intends to contribute in the study of the formation of phases LZO and SZO, studying different massic proportions between LSM and YSZ with sintering temperatures varying between 1000 deg C and 1400 deg C. For the obtention of the precursory powders the co-precipitation routes were adopted to obtain YSZ and conventional powder mixture for the preparation of LSM. The composite LSM/YSZ, studied in this work, is prepared with two concentrations of Sr for LSM (30 mol por cent - LSM7 and 40 mol por cent - LSM6) and one concentration of Yttria for YSZ (10 mol por cent). The results obtained by X-ray fluorescence showed that the routes adopted for synthesis of powders were effective in the obtention of the compositions LSM6, LSM7 and YSZ, with close values to the stoichiometric. The studied massic proportions were: 50 por cent of LSM and 50 por cent of YSZ (1:1), 25 por cent of LSM and 75 por cent of YSZ (1:3), and 75 por cent of LSM and 25 por cent of YSZ (3:1). Such proportions of mixtures were conformed and submitted at different conditions of temperatures and times of sintering: 1000 deg C, 1200 deg C, 1300 deg C, 1350 deg C and 1400 deg C for 4 and 8 hours. The values of medium size of the particles and the specific surface area values for the mixture of LSM6/YSZ and LSM7/YSZ, are of the same order of largeness after the mixture in a attrition mill and in different massic proportions. Secondary phases like LZO and

  11. ICT-infrastructures for hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment: the DRIHMS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Craig, G. C.; Clematis, A.; Kranzlmueller, D.; Schiffers, M.; Morando, M.; Rebora, N.; Trasforini, E.; D'Agostino, D.; Keil, K.

    2010-09-01

    hydrometeorological events on society and for the development of the tools improving the adaptation and resilience of society to the challenges of climate change. This paper will be devoted to provide an overview of DRIHMS ideas and to present the results of the DRIHMS HMR and ICT surveys.

  12. Functional characterization of duck LSm14A in IFN-β induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Kexin; Li, Huilin; Chen, Huanchun; Foda, Mohamed Frahat; Luo, Rui; Jin, Hui

    2017-11-01

    Human LSm14A is a key component of processing body (P-body) assembly that mediates interferon-β (IFN-β) production by sensing viral RNA or DNA. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to report duck LSm14A (duLSm14A) cloning from duck embryo fibroblasts (DEFs). Full-length duLSm14A encoded 461 amino acids and was highly homologous with chicken and swan goose sequences. More interestingly, the duLSm14A mRNA was extensively expressed in all the studied tissues. In DEFs, duLSm14A was localized in the cytoplasm as P-body-like dots. Expression of duLSm14A induced IFN-β through the activation of interferon regulatory factor-1 and nuclear factor-κB in DEFs. Furthermore, knockdown of duLSm14A by small interfering RNA notably decreased poly(I:C)- or duck reovirus-induced IFN-β production. The present study results indicate that the duLSm14A is an essential sensor that mediates duck innate immunity against viral infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Comparison of the Degradation of the Polarization Resistance of Symmetrical LSM-YSZ Cells, with Anode Supported Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ SOFCs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torres da Silva, Iris Maura; Nielsen, Jimmi; Hjelm, Johan

    2009-01-01

    Impedance spectra of a symmetrical cell with SOFC cathodes (LSM-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ) and an anode supported planar SOFC (Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ) were collected at OCV at 650{degree sign}C in air (cathode) and humidified (4%) hydrogen (anode), over 155 hours. The impedance was affected by degradation over...... time in the same frequency range for both cells (~10 Hz), possibly indicating that the same physical process was affected in both types of cell. However, deconvolution of the impedance data was not straightforward. When n-values of the constant phase elements in the otherwise identical equivalent...

  14. Study of the formation of secondary phases in the composite LSM/YSZ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Ranieri Andrade

    2007-01-01

    The composite of strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (La 1-x SrxMnO 3 - LSM) and Yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO 2 /Y 2 O 3 - YSZ), is indicated as cathode of the Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC). It presents better acting as cathode due to the Triple Phase Boundary (TPB) formed in the interface area between the cathode and the electrolyte. For the temperatures up to 1100 deg C, LSM and YSZ can react producing lanthanum zirconate (La 2 Zr 2 O 7 - LZO) and strontium zirconate (SrZrO 3 - SZO). In this sense, the present work intends to contribute in the study of the formation of phases LZO and SZO, studying different massic proportions between LSM and YSZ with sintering temperatures varying between 1000 deg C and 1400 deg C. For the obtention of the precursory powders the co-precipitation routes were adopted to obtain YSZ and conventional powder mixture for the preparation of LSM. The composite LSM/YSZ, studied in this work, is prepared with two concentrations of Sr for LSM (30 mol por cent - LSM7 and 40 mol por cent - LSM6) and one concentration of Yttria for YSZ (10 mol por cent). The results obtained by X-ray fluorescence showed that the routes adopted for synthesis of powders were effective in the obtention of the compositions LSM6, LSM7 and YSZ, with close values to the stoichiometric. The studied massic proportions were: 50 por cent of LSM and 50 por cent of YSZ (1:1), 25 por cent of LSM and 75 por cent of YSZ (1:3), and 75 por cent of LSM and 25 por cent of YSZ (3:1). Such proportions of mixtures were conformed and submitted at different conditions of temperatures and times of sintering: 1000 deg C, 1200 deg C, 1300 deg C, 1350 deg C and 1400 deg C for 4 and 8 hours. The values of medium size of the particles and the specific surface area values for the mixture of LSM6/YSZ and LSM7/YSZ, are of the same order of largeness after the mixture in a attrition mill and in different massic proportions. Secondary phases like LZO and SZO were not found in the analysis for

  15. Chromium poisoning of LSM/YSZ and LSCF/CGO composite cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Janet Jonna; Høgh, Jens Valdemar Thorvald; Barfod, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    from 300 to 2,970 h. Both LSM/YSZ and LSCF/CGO cathodes were sensitive to chromium poisoning; LSCF/CGO cathodes to a lesser extent than LSM/YSZ. Humid air aggravated the degradation of the cathode performance. Post-mortem electron microscopic investigations revealed several Cr-containing compounds...

  16. Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis D.; Lykoudis, Spyros; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Kappos, Nikos; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2013-08-01

    Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk -a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive- it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its

  17. Investigation of the degradation of LSM-YSZ SOFC cathode by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torres da Silva, Iris Maura

    The aim of this PhD study was to investigate degradation of the LSM-YSZ cathode of anode supported Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ solid oxide fuel cells. The chosen cathode materials LSM25 and 8YSZ were investigated for their compatibility and stability, to confirm that expansion/contraction or decreasing......, at different operating conditions. An equivalent circuit was developed for the symmetrical cell, describing the processes taking place at the LSM-YSZ cathode. This equivalent circuit was applied in degradation studies, where the processes affected by degradation over time could be pinpointed. Furthermore......, it was discovered that impurities in air cause significant degradation of the cathode. Humidity was found to increase the degradation rate, but other impurities might also be present and increasing degradation. Then the anode supported Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ single cells were prepared and tested. It was found...

  18. Multifractal Conceptualisation of Hydro-Meteorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources management, technological or operational developments face a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydro-meteorological fields. It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of the observation scale and yield hydro-meteorological hazards. Throughout the world, the development of multifractal theory offers new techniques for handling such non-classical variability over wide ranges of time and space scales. The resulting stochastic simulations with a very limited number of parameters well reproduce the long range dependencies and the clustering of rainfall extremes often yielding fat tailed (i.e., an algebraic type) probability distributions. The goal of this work was to investigate the ability of using very short or incomplete data records for reliable statistical predictions of the extremes. In particular we discuss how to evaluate the uncertainty in the empirical or semi-analytical multifractal outcomes. We consider three main aspects of the evaluation, such as the scaling adequacy, the multifractal parameter estimation error and the quantile estimation error. We first use the multiplicative cascade model to generate long series of multifractal data. The simulated samples had to cover the range of the universal multifractal parameters widely available in the scientific literature for the rainfall and river discharges. Using these long multifractal series and their sub-samples, we defined a metric for parameter estimation error. Then using the sets of estimated parameters, we obtained the quantile values for a range of excedance probabilities from 5% to 0.01%. Plotting the error bars on a quantile plot enable an approximation of confidence intervals that would be particularly important for the predictions of multifractal extremes. We finally illustrate the efficiency of such concept on its application to a large database (more than 16000 selected stations over USA and

  19. LSM Proteins Provide Accurate Splicing and Decay of Selected Transcripts to Ensure Normal Arabidopsis Development[W

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perea-Resa, Carlos; Hernández-Verdeja, Tamara; López-Cobollo, Rosa; Castellano, María del Mar; Salinas, Julio

    2012-01-01

    In yeast and animals, SM-like (LSM) proteins typically exist as heptameric complexes and are involved in different aspects of RNA metabolism. Eight LSM proteins, LSM1 to 8, are highly conserved and form two distinct heteroheptameric complexes, LSM1-7 and LSM2-8,that function in mRNA decay and splicing, respectively. A search of the Arabidopsis thaliana genome identifies 11 genes encoding proteins related to the eight conserved LSMs, the genes encoding the putative LSM1, LSM3, and LSM6 proteins being duplicated. Here, we report the molecular and functional characterization of the Arabidopsis LSM gene family. Our results show that the 11 LSM genes are active and encode proteins that are also organized in two different heptameric complexes. The LSM1-7 complex is cytoplasmic and is involved in P-body formation and mRNA decay by promoting decapping. The LSM2-8 complex is nuclear and is required for precursor mRNA splicing through U6 small nuclear RNA stabilization. More importantly, our results also reveal that these complexes are essential for the correct turnover and splicing of selected development-related mRNAs and for the normal development of Arabidopsis. We propose that LSMs play a critical role in Arabidopsis development by ensuring the appropriate development-related gene expression through the regulation of mRNA splicing and decay. PMID:23221597

  20. Characterization of impregnated GDC nano structures and their functionality in LSM based cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klemensø, Trine; Chatzichristodoulou, Christodoulos; Nielsen, Jimmi

    2012-01-01

    Porous composite cathodes of LSM–YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) were impregnated with GDC (gadolinia doped ceria) nano particles. The impregnation process was varied using none or different surfactants (Triton X-45, Triton X-100, P123), and the quantity...... on the LSM phase and the LSM grain boundaries. The observations suggest that the improved performance associated with GDC nano particles is related to the particles placed near the TPB (triple phase boundary) zone. The GDC extends the TPB by creating an ionic conducting network on top of the LSM particles...

  1. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  2. Land Surface Model (LSM 1.0) for Ecological, Hydrological, Atmospheric Studies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NCAR LSM 1.0 is a land surface model developed to examine biogeophysical and biogeochemical land-atmosphere interactions, especially the effects of land surfaces...

  3. The decapping activator Edc3 and the Q/N-rich domain of Lsm4 function together to enhance mRNA stability and alter mRNA decay pathway dependence in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Huch

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The rate and regulation of mRNA decay are major elements in the proper control of gene expression. Edc3 and Lsm4 are two decapping activator proteins that have previously been shown to function in the assembly of RNA granules termed P bodies. Here, we show that deletion of edc3, when combined with a removal of the glutamine/asparagine rich region of Lsm4 (edc3Δ lsm4ΔC reduces mRNA stability and alters pathways of mRNA degradation. Multiple tested mRNAs exhibited reduced stability in the edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant. The destabilization was linked to an increased dependence on Ccr4-mediated deadenylation and mRNA decapping. Unlike characterized mutations in decapping factors that either are neutral or are able to stabilize mRNA, the combined edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant reduced mRNA stability. We characterized the growth and activity of the major mRNA decay systems and translation in double mutant and wild-type yeast. In the edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant, we observed alterations in the levels of specific mRNA decay factors as well as nuclear accumulation of the catalytic subunit of the decapping enzyme Dcp2. Hence, we suggest that the effects on mRNA stability in the edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant may originate from mRNA decay protein abundance or changes in mRNPs, or alternatively may imply a role for P bodies in mRNA stabilization.

  4. Use of a scenario-neutral approach to identify the key hydro-meteorological attributes that impact runoff from a natural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2017-11-01

    Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for assessing the potential impact of climate change on water resource systems, as these approaches allow the performance of these systems to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. However, practical implementations of these approaches are still scarce, with a key limitation being the difficulty of generating a range of plausible future time series of hydro-meteorological data. In this study we apply a recently developed inverse stochastic generation approach to support the scenario-neutral analysis, and thus identify the key hydro-meteorological variables to which the system is most sensitive. The stochastic generator simulates synthetic hydro-meteorological time series that represent plausible future changes in (1) the average, extremes and seasonal patterns of rainfall; and (2) the average values of temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (uz) as variables that drive PET. These hydro-meteorological time series are then fed through a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate the potential changes in runoff as a function of changes in the hydro-meteorological variables, and runoff sensitivity is assessed with both correlation and Sobol' sensitivity analyses. The method was applied to a case study catchment in South Australia, and the results showed that the most important hydro-meteorological attributes for runoff were winter rainfall followed by the annual average rainfall, while the PET-related meteorological variables had comparatively little impact. The high importance of winter rainfall can be related to the winter-dominated nature of both the rainfall and runoff regimes in this catchment. The approach illustrated in this study can greatly enhance our understanding of the key hydro-meteorological attributes and processes that are likely to drive catchment runoff under a changing climate, thus enabling the design of tailored climate impact assessments to specific

  5. Joint System of the National Hydrometeorology for disaster prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J.; Cho, K.; Lee, Y. S.; Jung, H. S.; Yoo, H. D.; Ryu, D.; Kwon, J.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrological disaster relief expenditure accounts for as much as 70 percent of total expenditure of disasters occurring in Korea. Since the response to and recovery of disasters are normally based on previous experiences, there have been limitations when dealing with ever-increasing localized heavy rainfall with short range in the era of climate change. Therefore, it became necessary to establish a system that can respond to a disaster in advance through the analysis and prediction of hydrometeorological information. Because a wide range of big data is essential, it cannot be done by a single agency only. That is why the three hydrometeorology-related agencies cooperated to establish a pilot (trial) system at Soemjingang basin in 2013. The three governmental agencies include the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in charge of disaster prevention and public safety, the National Geographic Information Institute (NGII under Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) in charge of geographical data, and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in charge of weather information. This pilot system was designed to be able to respond to disasters in advance through providing a damage prediction information for flash flood to public officers for safety part using high resolution precipitation prediction data provided by the KMA and high precision geographic data by NGII. To produce precipitation prediction data with high resolution, the KMA conducted downscaling from 25km×25km global model to 3km×3km local model and is running the local model twice a day. To maximize the utility of weather prediction information, the KMA is providing the prediction information for 7 days with 1 hour interval at Soemjingang basin to monitor and predict not only flood but also drought. As no prediction is complete without a description of its uncertainty, it is planned to continuously develop the skills to improve the uncertainty of the prediction on weather and its impact

  6. Incorporating Sentinel-2-like remote sensing products in the hydrometeorological modelling over an agricultural area in south west France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivalland, Vincent; Gascoin, Simon; Etchanchu, Jordi; Coustau, Mathieu; Cros, Jérôme; Tallec, Tiphaine

    2016-04-01

    The Sentinel-2 mission will enable to monitor the land cover and the vegetation phenology at high-resolution (HR) every 5 days. However, current Land Surface Models (LSM) typically use land cover and vegetation parameters derived from previous low to mid resolution satellite missions. Here we studied the effect of introducing Sentinel-2-like data in the simulation of the land surface energy and water fluxes in a region dominated by cropland. Simulations were performed with the ISBA-SURFEX LSM, which is used in the operational hydrometeorological chain of Meteo-France for hydrological forecasts and drought monitoring. By default, SURFEX vegetation land surface parameters and temporal evolution are from the ECOCLIMAP II European database mostly derived from MODIS products at 1 km resolution. The model was applied to an experimental area of 30 km by 30 km in south west France. In this area the resolution of ECOCLIMAP is coarser than the typical size of a crop field. This means that several crop types can be mixed in a pixel. In addition ECOCLIMAP provides a climatology of the vegetation phenology and thus does not account for the interannual effects of the climate and land management on the crop growth. In this work, we used a series of 26 Formosat-2 images at 8-m resolution acquired in 2006. From this dataset, we derived a land cover map and a leaf area index map (LAI) at each date, which were substituted to the ECOCLIMAP land cover map and the LAI maps. The model output water and energy fluxes were compared to a standard simulation using ECOCLIMAP only and to in situ measurements of soil moisture, latent and sensible heat fluxes. The results show that the introduction of the HR products improved the timing of the evapotranspiration. The impact was the most visible on the crops having a growing season in summer (maize, sunflower), because the growth period is more sensitive to the climate.

  7. Electron temperature measurements of FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rej, D.J.

    1989-01-01

    The electron temperature T/sub e/ has been measured with Thomson scattering field-reversed configurations (FRCs) on the Los Alamos FRX-C/LSM experiment. FRCs formed and trapped in-situ in the θ-pinch source are studied. These experiments mark the first comprehensive FRC T/sub e/ measurements in over five years with data gathered on over 400 discharges. Measurements are performed at a single point in space and time on each discharge. The Thomson scattering diagnostic consist of a Q-switched ruby laser focused from one end to a point 0.2 m from the axial midplane of the θ-pinch coil and at radius of either 0.00 or 0.10 m. Scattered light is collected, dispersed and detected with a 7-channel, triple-grating polychromator configured to detect light wavelengths between 658 and 692 nm. Photomultiplier currents are measured with gated A/D converters, with plasma background signals recorded 100-ns before and 100-ns after the laser pulse. Electron temperatures are measured at either radial position during the time interval, 10 ≤ t ≤ 70 μs, between FRC formation and the onset of the n = 2 instability which usually terminates the discharge. A variety of plasma conditions have been produced by adjusting three external parameters: the initial deuterium fill pressure p/sub O/; the reversed bias magnetic field B/sub b/; and the external magnetic field B/sub w/. The fill-pressure scan has been performed at B/sub b/ ≅ 60 mT and B/sub w/ ≅ 0.4 T with p/sub o/ set at either 2, 3, 4 or 5 mtorr. The bias-field scan, 37 ≤ B/sub b/ ≤ 95 mT, has been performed at p/sub o/ = 3 mtorr and B/sub w/ ≅ 0.4 T. 7 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  8. Application of linear scheduling method (LSM) for nuclear power plant (NPP) construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woojoong; Ryu, Dongsoo; Jung, Youngsoo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Mixed use of linear scheduling method with traditional CPM is suggested for NPP. • A methodology for selecting promising areas for LSM application is proposed. • A case-study is conducted to validate the proposed LSM selection methodology. • A case-study of reducing NPP construction duration by using LSM is introduced. - Abstract: According to a forecast, global energy demand is expected to increase by 56% from 2010 to 2040 (EIA, 2013). The nuclear power plant construction market is also growing with sharper competition. In nuclear power plant construction, scheduling is one of the most important functions due to its large size and complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate the ‘distinct characteristics of construction commodities and the complex characteristics of scheduling techniques’ (Jung and Woo, 2004) when selecting appropriate schedule control methods for nuclear power plant construction. However, among various types of construction scheduling techniques, the traditional critical path method (CPM) has been used most frequently in real-world practice. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to examine the viability and effectiveness of linear scheduling method (LSM) applications for specific areas in nuclear power plant construction. In order to identify the criteria for selecting scheduling techniques, the characteristics of CPM and LSM were compared and analyzed first through a literature review. Distinct characteristics of nuclear power plant construction were then explored by using a case project in order to develop a methodology to select effective areas of LSM application to nuclear power plant construction. Finally, promising areas for actual LSM application are suggested based on the proposed evaluation criteria and the case project. Findings and practical implications are discussed for further implementation

  9. Application of linear scheduling method (LSM) for nuclear power plant (NPP) construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woojoong, E-mail: minidung@nate.com [Central Research Institute, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd, Daejeon 305-343 (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Dongsoo, E-mail: energyboy@khnp.co.kr [Central Research Institute, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd, Daejeon 305-343 (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Youngsoo, E-mail: yjung97@mju.ac.kr [College of Architecture, Myongji University, Yongin 449-728 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-04-01

    Highlights: • Mixed use of linear scheduling method with traditional CPM is suggested for NPP. • A methodology for selecting promising areas for LSM application is proposed. • A case-study is conducted to validate the proposed LSM selection methodology. • A case-study of reducing NPP construction duration by using LSM is introduced. - Abstract: According to a forecast, global energy demand is expected to increase by 56% from 2010 to 2040 (EIA, 2013). The nuclear power plant construction market is also growing with sharper competition. In nuclear power plant construction, scheduling is one of the most important functions due to its large size and complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate the ‘distinct characteristics of construction commodities and the complex characteristics of scheduling techniques’ (Jung and Woo, 2004) when selecting appropriate schedule control methods for nuclear power plant construction. However, among various types of construction scheduling techniques, the traditional critical path method (CPM) has been used most frequently in real-world practice. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to examine the viability and effectiveness of linear scheduling method (LSM) applications for specific areas in nuclear power plant construction. In order to identify the criteria for selecting scheduling techniques, the characteristics of CPM and LSM were compared and analyzed first through a literature review. Distinct characteristics of nuclear power plant construction were then explored by using a case project in order to develop a methodology to select effective areas of LSM application to nuclear power plant construction. Finally, promising areas for actual LSM application are suggested based on the proposed evaluation criteria and the case project. Findings and practical implications are discussed for further implementation.

  10. Synthesis of LSM films deposited by dip-coating on YSZ substrate; Sintese de filmes de LSM depositados por dip-coating em substratos de YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conceicao, Leandro da; Souza, Mariana M.V.M., E-mail: mmattos@eq.ufrj.b [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (EQ/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Escola de Quimica; Ribeiro, Nielson F.P. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (PEQ/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Quimica. Nucleo de Catalise

    2010-07-01

    The dip-coating process was used to deposit films of La{sub 0.7}Sr{sub 0.}3MnO{sub 3} (LSM) used as cathode in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). In this study we evaluated the relationship between the deposition parameters such as speed of withdrawal and number of deposited layers of LSM film on a substrate of 8% YSZ commercial, and structural properties, such as thickness and formation of cracks. The structure and morphology of the films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). With parameters set the film had good adhesion to the substrate with a thickness around 10 {mu}m, showing possible adherence problems when more than one layer is deposited on the substrate. (author)

  11. Electromechanical Dynamics Simulations of Superconducting LSM Rocket Launcher System in Attractive-Mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Kinjiro; Hayashi, Kengo; Takami, Hiroshi

    1996-01-01

    Further feasibility study on a superconducting linear synchronous motor (LSM) rocket launcher system is presented on the basis of dynamic simulations of electric power, efficiency and power factor as well as the ascending motions of the launcher and rocket. The advantages of attractive-mode operation are found from comparison with repulsive-mode operation. It is made clear that the LSM rocket launcher system, of which the long-stator is divided optimally into 60 sections according to launcher speeds, can obtain high efficiency and power factor.

  12. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  13. Validation of limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring - is a separate validation group required?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proost, J. H.

    Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation

  14. Regardless-of-Speed Superconducting LSM Controlled-Repulsive MAGLEV Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Kinjiro; Egashira, Tatsuya; Hirai, Ryuichi

    1996-01-01

    This paper proposes a new repulsive Maglev vehicle which a superconducting linear synchronous motor (LSM) can levitate and propel simultaneously, independently of the vehicle speeds. The combined levitation and propulsion control is carried out by controlling mechanical-load angle and armature-current. Dynamic simulations show successful operations with good ride-quality by using a compact control method proposed here.

  15. Benchmarking LSM root-zone soil mositure predictions using satellite-based vegetation indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    The application of modern land surface models (LSMs) to agricultural drought monitoring is based on the premise that anomalies in LSM root-zone soil moisture estimates can accurately anticipate the subsequent impact of drought on vegetation productivity and health. In addition, the water and energy ...

  16. Effect of sintering temperature on microstructure and performance of LSM-YSZ composite cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl Jørgensen, M.; Primdahl, S.; Bagger, C.

    2001-01-01

    the sintering temperature to 1050 degreesC the increase in the polarisation resistance was counterbalanced by a decrease in the series resistance, The optimum sintering temperature with respect to the initial performance is assumed to be where good physical and electrical contact between LSM and YSZ is obtained...

  17. Quantifying Parameter Sensitivity, Interaction and Transferability in Hydrologically Enhanced Versions of Noah-LSM over Transition Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosero, Enrique; Yang, Zong-Liang; Wagener, Thorsten; Gulden, Lindsey E.; Yatheendradas, Soni; Niu, Guo-Yue

    2009-01-01

    We use sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that are most responsible for shaping land surface model (LSM) simulations and to understand the complex interactions in three versions of the Noah LSM: the standard version (STD), a version enhanced with a simple groundwater module (GW), and version augmented by a dynamic phenology module (DV). We use warm season, high-frequency, near-surface states and turbulent fluxes collected over nine sites in the US Southern Great Plains. We quantify changes in the pattern of sensitive parameters, the amount and nature of the interaction between parameters, and the covariance structure of the distribution of behavioral parameter sets. Using Sobol s total and first-order sensitivity indexes, we show that very few parameters directly control the variance of the model output. Significant parameter interaction occurs so that not only the optimal parameter values differ between models, but the relationships between parameters change. GW decreases parameter interaction and appears to improve model realism, especially at wetter sites. DV increases parameter interaction and decreases identifiability, implying it is overparameterized and/or underconstrained. A case study at a wet site shows GW has two functional modes: one that mimics STD and a second in which GW improves model function by decoupling direct evaporation and baseflow. Unsupervised classification of the posterior distributions of behavioral parameter sets cannot group similar sites based solely on soil or vegetation type, helping to explain why transferability between sites and models is not straightforward. This evidence suggests a priori assignment of parameters should also consider climatic differences.

  18. Hydrometeorological Database (HMDB) for Practical Research in Ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Novakovskiy, A; Elsakov, V

    2014-01-01

    The regional HydroMeteorological DataBase (HMDB) was designed for easy access to climate data via the Internet. It contains data on various climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, pressure, humidity, and wind strength and direction) from 190 meteorological stations in Russia and bordering countries for a period of instrumental observations of over 100 years. Open sources were used to ingest data into HMDB. An analytical block was also developed to perform the most common statistical ...

  19. Impedance of SOFC electrodes: A review and a comprehensive case study on the impedance of LSM:YSZ cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmi; Hjelm, Johan

    2014-01-01

    It was shown through a comprehensive impedance spectroscopy study that the impedance of the classic composite LSM:YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode can be described well with porous electrode theory. Furthermore, it was illustr......It was shown through a comprehensive impedance spectroscopy study that the impedance of the classic composite LSM:YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode can be described well with porous electrode theory. Furthermore......, it was illustrated through a literature review on SOFC electrodes that porous electrode theory not only describes the classic LSM:YSZ SOFC cathode well, but SOFC electrodes in general. The extensive impedance spectroscopy study of LSM:YSZ cathodes consisted of measurements on cathodes with three different sintering...... temperatures and hence different microstructures and varying degrees of LSM/YSZ solid state interactions. LSM based composite cathodes, where YSZ was replaced with CGO was also studied in order to acquire further knowledge on the chemical compatibility between LSM and YSZ. All impedance measurements were...

  20. Electrochemical performances of LSM/YSZ composite electrode for high temperature steam electrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyu-Sung Sim; Ki-Kwang Bae; Chang-Hee Kim; Ki-Bae Park

    2006-01-01

    The (La 0.8 Sr 0.2 ) 0.95 MnO 3 /Yttria-stabilized Zirconia composite electrodes were investigated as anode materials for high temperature steam electrolysis using X-ray diffractometry, scanning electron microscopy, galvano-dynamic and galvano-static polarization method. For this study, the LSM perovskites were fabricated in powders by the co-precipitation method and then were mixed with 8 mol% YSZ powders in different molar ratios. The LSM/YSZ composite electrodes were deposited on 8 mol% YSZ electrolyte disks by screen printing method, followed by sintering at temperature above 1100 C. From the experimental results, it is concluded that the electrochemical properties of pure and composite electrodes are closely related to their micro-structure and operating temperature. (authors)

  1. Synthesis of LSM films deposited by dip-coating on YSZ substrate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conceicao, Leandro da; Souza, Mariana M.V.M.; Ribeiro, Nielson F.P.

    2010-01-01

    The dip-coating process was used to deposit films of La 0.7 Sr 0. 3MnO 3 (LSM) used as cathode in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). In this study we evaluated the relationship between the deposition parameters such as speed of withdrawal and number of deposited layers of LSM film on a substrate of 8% YSZ commercial, and structural properties, such as thickness and formation of cracks. The structure and morphology of the films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). With parameters set the film had good adhesion to the substrate with a thickness around 10 μm, showing possible adherence problems when more than one layer is deposited on the substrate. (author)

  2. Improved oxidation resistance of ferritic steels with LSM coating for high temperature electrochemical applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palcut, Marián; Mikkelsen, Lars; Neufeld, Kai

    2012-01-01

    The effect of single layer La0.85Sr0.15MnO3−δ (LSM) coatings on high temperature oxidation behaviour of four commercial chromia-forming steels, Crofer 22 APU, Crofer 22 H, E-Brite and AL 29-4C, is studied. The samples were oxidized for 140–1000 h at 1123 K in flowing simulated ambient air (air + 1......% H2O) and oxygen and corrosion kinetics monitored by mass increase of the materials over time. The oxide scale microstructure and chemical composition are investigated by scanning electron microscopy/energy-dispersive spectroscopy. The kinetic data obey a parabolic rate law. The results show...... that the LSM coating acts as an oxygen transport barrier that can significantly reduce the corrosion rate....

  3. Increased cathode performance using a thin film LSM layer on a structured 8YSZ electrolyte surface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbstritt, D.; Weber, A.; Ivers-Tiffee, E. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (DE). Inst. fuer Werkstoffkunde der Elektrotechnik (IWE); Guntow, U.; Mueller, G. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Silicatforschung (ISC), Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2000-07-01

    A considerable part of the power losses in a SOFC single cell occurs due to the polarization resistance of the cathode/electrolyte interface. The resulting high cathodic overvoltage corresponds to an enhanced degradation of the cell. In case of a screen printed LSM cathode layer (LSM: La{sub 1-x}Sr{sub x}MnO{sub 3}) on a YSZ electrolyte substrate (YSZ: Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} stabilised ZrO{sub 2}) the cathodic reaction is generally assumed to be restricted to the three phase boundary (tpb) between cathode, oxidant and the electrolyte surface. The electrochemical active area was increased by a modification of the cathode/electrolyte interface. Single cells with a thin film LSM layer on a structured 8YSZ electrolyte showed a power output of about 0.95 W/cm{sup 2} at 0.7 V cell voltage (950 C; oxidant: air, 0.7 1/min; fuel: hydrogen, 0.5 1/min, 15% fuel utilization). (orig.)

  4. Environment-dependent regulation of spliceosome activity by the LSM2-8 complex in Arabidopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco-López, Cristian; Hernández-Verdeja, Tamara; Perea-Resa, Carlos; Abia, David; Catalá, Rafael; Salinas, Julio

    2017-07-07

    Spliceosome activity is tightly regulated to ensure adequate splicing in response to internal and external cues. It has been suggested that core components of the spliceosome, such as the snRNPs, would participate in the control of its activity. The experimental indications supporting this proposition, however, remain scarce, and the operating mechanisms poorly understood. Here, we present genetic and molecular evidence demonstrating that the LSM2-8 complex, the protein moiety of the U6 snRNP, regulates the spliceosome activity in Arabidopsis, and that this regulation is controlled by the environmental conditions. Our results show that the complex ensures the efficiency and accuracy of constitutive and alternative splicing of selected pre-mRNAs, depending on the conditions. Moreover, miss-splicing of most targeted pre-mRNAs leads to the generation of nonsense mediated decay signatures, indicating that the LSM2-8 complex also guarantees adequate levels of the corresponding functional transcripts. Interestingly, the selective role of the complex has relevant physiological implications since it is required for adequate plant adaptation to abiotic stresses. These findings unveil an unanticipated function for the LSM2-8 complex that represents a new layer of posttranscriptional regulation in response to external stimuli in eukaryotes. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  5. Towards A Grid Infrastructure For Hydro-Meteorological Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schiffers

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorological Study (DRIHMS is a coordinatedaction co-funded by the European Commission. DRIHMS analyzes the main issuesthat arise when designing and setting up a pan-European Grid-based e-Infrastructure for researchactivities in the hydrologic and meteorological fields. The main outcome of the projectis represented first by a set of Grid usage patterns to support innovative hydro-meteorologicalresearch activities, and second by the implications that such patterns define for a dedicatedGrid infrastructure and the respective Grid architecture.

  6. A two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective optimization approach to hydrometeorological gauge network design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Pengcheng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

    2017-12-01

    Hydrometeorological data are needed for obtaining point and areal mean, quantifying the spatial variability of hydrometeorological variables, and calibration and verification of hydrometeorological models. Hydrometeorological networks are utilized to collect such data. Since data collection is expensive, it is essential to design an optimal network based on the minimal number of hydrometeorological stations in order to reduce costs. This study proposes a two-phase copula entropy- based multiobjective optimization approach that includes: (1) copula entropy-based directional information transfer (CDIT) for clustering the potential hydrometeorological gauges into several groups, and (2) multiobjective method for selecting the optimal combination of gauges for regionalized groups. Although entropy theory has been employed for network design before, the joint histogram method used for mutual information estimation has several limitations. The copula entropy-based mutual information (MI) estimation method is shown to be more effective for quantifying the uncertainty of redundant information than the joint histogram (JH) method. The effectiveness of this approach is verified by applying to one type of hydrometeorological gauge network, with the use of three model evaluation measures, including Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC), arithmetic mean of the negative copula entropy (MNCE), and MNCE/NSC. Results indicate that the two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective technique is capable of evaluating the performance of regional hydrometeorological networks and can enable decision makers to develop strategies for water resources management.

  7. Identifying and Evaluating Chaotic Behavior in Hydro-Meteorological Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soojun Kim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate chaotic behavior in hydro-meteorological processes. This study poses the two hypotheses to identify chaotic behavior of the processes. First, assume that the input data is the significant factor to provide chaotic characteristics to output data. Second, assume that the system itself is the significant factor to provide chaotic characteristics to output data. For solving this issue, hydro-meteorological time series such as precipitation, air temperature, discharge, and storage volume were collected in the Great Salt Lake and Bear River Basin, USA. The time series in the period of approximately one year were extracted from the original series using the wavelet transform. The generated time series from summation of sine functions were fitted to each series and used for investigating the hypotheses. Then artificial neural networks had been built for modeling the reservoir system and the correlation dimension was analyzed for the evaluation of chaotic behavior between inputs and outputs. From the results, we found that the chaotic characteristic of the storage volume which is output is likely a byproduct of the chaotic behavior of the reservoir system itself rather than that of the input data.

  8. The Effect of Electrical Polarization on Electronic Structure in LSM Electrodes: An Operando XAS, RIXS and XES Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Marie Lund; Carvalho, H.W.P.; Zielke, Philipp

    2017-01-01

    in the Mn K edge energy towards lower energies. The shift is assigned to a decrease in the average Mn oxidation state, which based on Kβ XES changes from 3.4 at open circuit voltage to 3.2 at −800 mV applied potential. Furthermore, RIXS rendered pronounced changes in the population of the Mn 3d orbitals...... (RIXS) at the Mn K-edge. The study of polarization induced changes in the electronic properties and structure has been carried out at 500°C in 10–20% O2 with electrical polarization applied in the range from −850 mV to 800 mV. Cathodic polarizations in the range −600 mV to −850 mV induced a shift......, due to filling of the Mn d-orbitals during the cathodic polarization. Overall, the study experimentally links the electrical polarization of LSM electrodes to the structural and electronic properties of Mn - these properties are expected to be of major importance for the electrocatalytic performance...

  9. Central Asia Water (CAWa) - A visualization platform for hydro-meteorological sensor data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stender, Vivien; Schroeder, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    Water is an indispensable necessity of life for people in the whole world. In central Asia, water is the key factor for economic development, but is already a narrow resource in this region. In fact of climate change, the water problem handling will be a big challenge for the future. The regional research Network "Central Asia Water" (CAWa) aims at providing a scientific basis for transnational water resources management for the five Central Asia States Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. CAWa is part of the Central Asia Water Initiative (also known as the Berlin Process) which was launched by the Federal Foreign Office on 1 April 2008 at the "Water Unites" conference in Berlin. To produce future scenarios and strategies for sustainable water management, data on water reserves and the use of water in Central Asia must therefore be collected consistently across the region. Hydro-meteorological stations equipped with sophisticated sensors are installed in Central Asia and send their data via real-time satellite communication to the operation centre of the monitoring network and to the participating National Hydro-meteorological Services.[1] The challenge for CAWa is to integrate the whole aspects of data management, data workflows, data modeling and visualizations in a proper design of a monitoring infrastructure. The use of standardized interfaces to support data transfer and interoperability is essential in CAWa. An uniform treatment of sensor data can be realized by the OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) , which makes a number of standards and interface definitions available: Observation & Measurement (O&M) model for the description of observations and measurements, Sensor Model Language (SensorML) for the description of sensor systems, Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for obtaining sensor observations, Sensor Planning Service (SPS) for tasking sensors, Web Notification Service (WNS) for asynchronous dialogues and Sensor Alert Service

  10. Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

  11. Contribution of cation-π interactions to the stability of Sm/LSm oligomeric assemblies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucić, Ivana D; Nikolić, Milan R; Stojanović, Srđan Đ

    2015-07-01

    In this work, we have analyzed the influence of cation-π interactions to the stability of Sm/LSm assemblies and their environmental preferences. The number of interactions formed by arginine is higher than lysine in the cationic group, while histidine is comparatively higher than phenylalanine and tyrosine in the π group. Arg-Tyr interactions are predominant among the various pairs analyzed. The furcation level of multiple cation-π interactions is much higher than that of single cation-π interactions in Sm/LSm interfaces. We have found hot spot residues forming cation-π interactions, and hot spot composition is similar for all aromatic residues. The Arg-Phe pair has the strongest interaction energy of -8.81 kcal mol(-1) among all the possible pairs of amino acids. The extent of burial of the residue side-chain correlates with the ΔΔG of binding for residues in the core and also for hot spot residues cation-π bonded across the interface. Secondary structure of the cation-π residues shows that Arg and Lys preferred to be in strand. Among the π residues, His prefers to be in helix, Phe prefers to be in turn, and Tyr prefers to be in strand. Stabilization centers for these proteins showed that all the five residues found in cation-π interactions are important in locating one or more of such centers. More than 50 % of the cation-π interacting residues are highly conserved. It is likely that the cation-π interactions contribute significantly to the overall stability of Sm/LSm proteins.

  12. Pore former induced porosity in LSM/CGO cathodes for electrochemical cells for flue gas purification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgaard, M.; Andersen, Kjeld Bøhm; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2012-01-01

    In this study the effect of the characteristics of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) pore formers on the porosity, pore size distribution and the air flow through the prepared lanthanum strontium manganate/gadolinium-doped cerium oxide (LSM/CGO) cathodes was investigated. Porous cathodes were obtained...... and the highest porosity measured was 46.4% with an average pore diameter of 0.98 μm. The air flow through this cathode was measured to 5.8 ml/(min mm2). Also the effect of exposure time to the solvent was tested for the most promising PMMA pore former and it was found that the average pore diameter decreases...

  13. Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2012-04-01

    During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and

  14. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  15. Radiation monitoring of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute - Present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2008-01-01

    Network for air radioactivity monitoring was developed in the frame Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) since 1963. There are data available for many years for beta radioactivity of the air particulate and deposition. At present network consist from 26 monitoring points for measurement of dose rate and 3 monitoring points for aerosol monitors. Measuring instrument are placed in the professional stations of the selected parts of Slovakia. They are regularly verified and calibrated in the Slovak Institute for Metrology. Radiation monitoring in the SHMI is one part of the Environmental monitoring of Slovakia. All activities and operation of this system are financed from governmental budget of the Environmental monitoring. All information about this system are available on the web page http://enviroportal.sk/ in the part 'Informacny system monitoringu'. (authors)

  16. Radiation monitoring of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute - Present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2009-01-01

    Network for air radioactivity monitoring was developed in the frame Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) since 1963. There are data available for many years for beta radioactivity of the air particulate and deposition. At present network consist from 26 monitoring points for measurement of dose rate and 3 monitoring points for aerosol monitors. Measuring instrument are placed in the professional stations of the selected parts of Slovakia. They are regularly verified and calibrated in the Slovak Institute for Metrology. Radiation monitoring in the SHMI is one part of the Environmental monitoring of Slovakia. All activities and operation of this system are financed from governmental budget of the Environmental monitoring. All information about this system are available on the web page http://enviroportal.sk/ in the part 'Informacny system monitoringu'. (authors)

  17. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Huan [University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tang, Qiuhong [Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Kirschbaum, Dalia B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Ward, Philip [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    2016-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  18. SET UP OF THE NEW AUTOMATIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL NETWORK IN HUNGARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. NAGy

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ and General Directorate of Water Management (OVF in Hungary run conventional precipitation measurement networks consisting of at least 1000 stations. OMSZ automated its synoptic and climatological network in 90’s and now more than 100 automatic stations give data every 1-10 minutes via GPRS channel. In 2007 the experts from both institutions determined the requirements of a common network. The predecessor in title of OVF is general Directorate for Water and Environment gave a project proposal in 2008 for establishment of a new hydrometeorological network based on common aims for meteorology and hydrology. The new hydrometeorological network was set up in 2012 financed by KEOP project. This network has got 141 weighing precipitation gauges, 118 temperature - humidity sensors and 25 soil moisture and soil temperature instruments. Near by Tisza-Lake two wind sensors have been installed. The network is operated by OMSZ and OVF together. OVF and its institutions maintain the stations itself and support the electricity. OMSZ operates data collection and transmission, maintaines and calibrates the sensors. Using precipitation data of enhanced network the radar precipitation field quality may be more precise, which are input of run-off model. Thereby the time allowance may be increased in flood-control events. Based on soil moisture and temperature water balance in soil may be modelled and forecast can be produced in different conditions. It is very important task in drought and inland water conditions. Considering OMSZ investment project in which new Doppler dual polarisation radar and 14 disdrometers will be installed, the precipitation estimation may be improved since 2015.

  19. Impacts of land-use change on the water cycle of urban areas within the Upper Great Lakes drainage basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Pijanowski, B. C.; Niyogi, D.

    2006-12-01

    Urbanization is altering the global landscape at an unprecedented rate. This form of land cover/land-use change (LCLUC) can significantly reduce infiltration and runoff response times, and alter heat and water vapor fluxes, which can further alter surface-forced regional circulation patterns and modulate precipitation volume and intensity. Spatial patterns of future LCLUC are projected using the Land Transformation Model (LTM), enhanced to incorporate dynamic landcover, economics and policy using Bayesian Belief Networks (LTM- BBN). Different land use scenarios predicted by the LTM-BBN as well as a pre-development scenario are represented through the Unified Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) with an enhanced urban canopy model, embedded in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The coupled WRF-Noah LSM model will be used to investigate the connections between land-use, hydrometeorology and the atmosphere, through analysis of water and energy balances over several urbanized watersheds within the Upper Great Lakes region. Preliminary results focus on a single watershed, the White River in Indiana, which includes the city of Indianapolis. Coupled WRF-Noah simulations made using pre and post-development land use maps provide a 7 year climatology of convective storm morphology around the urban center. Precipitation and other meteorological variables from the WRF-Noah simulations are used to drive simulations of the White River watershed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model. The VIC model has been modified to represent urban areas and has been calibrated for modern flow regimes in the White River watershed. Pre- and post-development VIC simulations are used to assess the impact of Indianapolis area infiltration changes. Finally, VIC model simulations utilizing projected land use change from 2005 through 2040 for the Indianapolis metropolitan area explore the magnitude of future hydrologic change, especially peak flow response

  20. Vodacom and MTN’s brand positioning based on the perceptions of a group of LSM seven to ten respondents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hennie Mentz

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates Vodacom and MTN’s brand positioning based on the perceptions of a group of LSM seven to ten respondents who are principal estate agents in Gauteng. An empirical study was conducted. The profile of the sample in terms of access to telecommunication-related services confirmed that of individuals in the LSM seven to ten groups with a skew towards LSM ten. As a minimum requirement for the target market brands in the category should be strongly associated with the statements market leader, local brand, technologically sophisticated brand, trusted brand, South African brand and prestigious/upmarket brand. At an overall level, Vodacom has established a more favourable brand positioning compared to MTN. However, both Vodacom and MTN have failed to establish a personal brand relationship with the target market.

  1. Hydrometeorological conditions preceding wildfire, and the subsequent burning of a fen watershed in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmes, Matthew C.; Thompson, Dan K.; Sherwood, James H.; Price, Jonathan S.

    2018-01-01

    The destructive nature of the ˜ 590 000 ha Horse river wildfire in the Western Boreal Plain (WBP), northern Alberta, in May of 2016 motivated the investigation of the hydrometeorological conditions that preceded the fire. Historical climate and field hydrometeorological data from a moderate-rich fen watershed were used to (a) identify whether the spring 2016 conditions were outside the range of natural variability for WBP climate cycles, (b) explain the observed patterns in burn severity across the watershed, and (c) identify whether fall and winter moisture signals observed in peatlands and lowland forests in the region are indicative of wildfire. Field hydrometeorological data from the fen watershed confirmed the presence of cumulative moisture deficits prior to the fire. Hydrogeological investigations highlighted the susceptibility of fen and upland areas to water table and soil moisture decline over rain-free periods (including winter), due to the watershed's reliance on supply from localized flow systems originating in topographic highs. Subtle changes in topographic position led to large changes in groundwater connectivity, leading to greater organic soil consumption by fire in wetland margins and at high elevations. The 2016 spring moisture conditions measured prior to the ignition of the fen watershed were not illustrated well by the Drought Code (DC) when standard overwintering procedures were applied. However, close agreement was found when default assumptions were replaced with measured duff soil moisture recharge and incorporated into the overwintering DC procedure. We conclude that accumulated moisture deficits dating back to the summer of 2015 led to the dry conditions that preceded the fire. The infrequent coinciding of several hydrometeorological conditions, including low autumn soil moisture, a modest snowpack, lack of spring precipitation, and high spring air temperatures and winds, ultimately led to the Horse river wildfire spreading widely and

  2. Performance of a solid oxide fuel cell with cathode containing a functional layer of LSM/YSZ film; Desempenho de uma celula a combustivel de oxido solido com catodo contendo uma camada funcional de filme LSM/YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pires, Filipe Oliveira; Domingues, Rosana Z.; Brant, Marcia C.; Silva, Charles L.; Matencio, Tulio [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Quimica]. E-mail: filipequiufmg@ufmg.br

    2008-07-01

    Performance of a SOFC may be evaluated by using the AC-Impedance and measuring power (P V x I). The objective of this study was to compare the performance of a fuel cell with LSM as a cathode and another one containing an additional functional composite film LSM/YSZ between the LSM and YSZ. Also it was studied variation in second cell resistance and power according to the temperature, hydrogen flux and operation time. For both cells platinum was used as anode. At 800 deg C was observed, in open current circuit, when the composite layer was introduced a decrease in resistance and high power. These results show an improvement of SOFC cathode performance with the introduction of composite LSM/YSZ layer. The maximum performance of the cell was achieved with 100 mL/min hydrogen flow at 800 deg C. The experiments also showed a performance improvement at 850 deg C. The cell behavior was stable during 318 hours of test. (author)

  3. Microstructure degradation of LSM-YSZ cathode in SOFCs operated at various conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yi-Lin; Thydén, Karl Tor Sune; Chen, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Systematic microstructural analyses have been carried out on a series of technological SOFCs that went through long-term cell tests with various operating parameters including temperature, current load and time length under current. For the LSM-YSZ cathode, a number of microstructure degradation...... mechanisms have been identified. And it has been observed that different mechanisms dominate the degradation process under different test conditions. The severe cathode degradation at 750 °C operation with high current density is attributed to a loss of the cathode/electrolyte interface stability....... For the cells tested at 850 °C, the interface stability is maintained due to further sintering during cell operation. A cell test lasting for 2 years (17500 h) at 850 °C with a moderate current density (not greater than 1 A/cm2) has shown that the cathode microstructure is fairly robust to the degradation...

  4. Neutron measurements in the FRX-C/LSM magnetic compression experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.; Baron, M.H.

    1989-01-01

    Neutron measurements are being pursued as an ion temperature diagnostic in the FRX-C/LSM Magnetic Compression Experiment. One can easily see that the d-d neutron emission is a sensitive measure of ion heating during adiabatic magnetic compression of FRCs. The reaction rate may be written as R = (1/2) n N left-angle σv right-angle, where n and N are the deuterium density and inventory. The fusion reactivity varies as left-angle σv right-angle ∝ T 5.6 for T ≅ 1 keV. For adiabatic compression, n ∝ B 1.2 and T ∝ B 0.8 so R ∝ B 5.7 in the absence of losses. The neutron yield is also sensitive to the time duration that the plasma remains near its peak temperature. 4 refs., 4 figs

  5. Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianping; Liu, Fang; Liu, Yu; Wu, Helen; Zhu, Wenqing; Wu, Wenli; Wu, Liang

    2012-09-01

    In order to acquire the reliability information of White Organic Light Emitting Display (OLED), three groups of OLED constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were carried out to obtain failure data of samples. Lognormal distribution function was applied to describe OLED life distribution, and the accelerated life equation was determined by Least square method (LSM). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the white OLED life meets lognormal distribution or not. Author-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the median life. The numerical results indicate that the white OLED life submits to lognormal distribution, and that the accelerated life equation meets inverse power law completely. The estimated life information of the white OLED provides manufacturers and customers with important guidelines.

  6. FRC [field-reversed configuration] translation studies on FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rej, D.; Barnes, G.; Baron, M.

    1989-01-01

    In preparation for upcoming compression-heating experiments, field-reversed configurations (FRCs) have been translated out of the FRX-C/LSM θ-pinch source, and into the 0.4-m-id, 6.7-m-long translation region formerly used on FRX-C/T. Unlike earlier experiments FRCs are generated without magnetic tearing in the larger FRX-C/LSM source (nominal coil id = 0.70 m, length = 2 m); larger, lower-energy-density FRCs are formed: r/sub s/ ≅ 0.17 m, B/sub ext/ ≅ 0.35 T, ≅ 7 /times/ 10 20 m/sup /minus/3/ and T/sub e/ + T/sub i/ ≅ 400 eV. An initial 3-mtorr D 2 pressure is introduced by either static or puff fill. Asymmetric fields from auxiliary end coils (used for non-tearing formation) provide the accelerating force on the FRC, thereby eliminating the need for a conical θ-pinch coil. An important feature is the abrupt 44% decrease in the flux-conserving wall radius at the transition between the θ-pinch and translation region, similar to that in the compressor. In this paper we review a variety of issues addressed by the recent translation experiments: translation dynamics; translation through a modulated magnetic field; stabilization of the n = 2 rotational instability by weak helical quadrupole fields; and confinement properties. Results from internal magnetic field measurements in translating FRCs may be found in a companion paper. 10 refs., 5 figs

  7. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute's severe storm nowcasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Petr

    2007-02-01

    To satisfy requirements for operational severe weather monitoring and prediction, the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has developed a severe storm nowcasting system which uses weather radar data as its primary data source. Previous CHMI studies identified two methods of radar echo prediction, which were then implemented during 2003 into the Czech weather radar network operational weather processor. The applications put into operations were the Continuity Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation (COTREC) algorithm, and an application that predicts future radar fields using the wind field derived from the geopotential at 700 hPa calculated from a local numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). To ensure timely delivery of the prediction products to the users, the forecasts are implemented into a web-based viewer (JSMeteoView) that has been developed by the CHMI Radar Department. At present, this viewer is used by all CHMI forecast offices for versatile visualization of radar and other meteorological data (Meteosat, lightning detection, NWP LAM output, SYNOP data) in the Internet/Intranet environment, and the viewer has detailed geographical navigation capabilities.

  8. Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

  9. Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

  10. Recent floods in the Middle Ebro River, Spain: hydrometeorological aspects and floodplain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domenech, S.; Espejo, F.; Ollero, A.; Sánchez-Fabre, M.

    2009-09-01

    The Ebro River has the largest Mediterranean basin in the Iberian Peninsula and the third one by surface among those of the Mediterranean Sea. The middle stretch of this river is especially interesting because it constitutes a very economically important axis of population in a semi-arid environment context. Flooding processes are common in the Middle Ebro River, but the combination among decrease of discharges, dam construction and expansion and reinforcement of defences created an unusually quiet period as regards flooding events during the last quarter of the previous century. Nevertheless, with the turn of the century it seems that the Middle Ebro River has entered into new dynamics, with bigger and more frequent floods, the appearance of which has changed its seasonal nature. The most relevant examples are those of February 2003 and March-April 2007. The present paper examines these recent trends and discusses their possible causes from the points of view of hydro-meteorology, flood management through the use of reservoirs, and floodplain management. The consequences of recent floods in the Middle Ebro River have reopened the debate about possible risk management measures.

  11. Soil Water Balance and Vegetation Dynamics in two Water-limited Mediterranean Ecosystem on Sardinia under past and future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Water limited conditions strongly impacts soil and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions, which are commonly heterogeneous ecosystems, characterized by inter-annual rainfall variability, topography variability and contrasting plant functional types (PFTs) competing for water use. Historical human influences (e.g., deforestation, urbanization) further altered these ecosystems. Sardinia island is a representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. Two contrasting case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin (1700 km2). The first site is a typical grassland on an alluvial plan valley (soil depth > 2m) while the second is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation species (mainly wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous) that grow in a soil bounded from below by a rocky layer of basalt, partially fractured (soil depth 15 - 40 cm). In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation technique while soil moisture was continuously estimated with water content reflectometers, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) was estimated. The following objectives are addressed:1) pointing out the dynamics of land surface fluxes, soil moisture, CO2 and vegetation cover for two contrasting water-limited ecosystems; 2) assess the impact of the soil depth and type on the CO2 and water balance dynamics; 3) evaluate the impact of past and future climate change scenarios on the two contrasting ecosystems. For reaching the objectives an ecohydrologic model that couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM) has been used. Historical meteorological data are available from 1922 and hydro-meteorological scenarios are then generated using a weather generator. The VDM-LSM model predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated

  12. The training on propagation of guided electromagnetic waves from the point of view of LSM LSE modes; La ensenanza de las ondas electromagneticas guiadas desde el punto de vista de los modos LSM y LSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, J.

    1997-09-01

    In this work, LSM and LSE modes are proposed as a didactic alternative for modeling the propagation of guided electromagnetic waves. Our considerations can be applied to the most common electromagnetic waves guiding systems: empty metallic waveguides, metallic waveguides partially filled with dielectrics, dielectric sheet waveguides and 3-D dielectric waveguides. In all cases, our interest is focussed on modes with a defined polarization; therefore the teaching activity can be treated from the scalar wave approximation point of view. (Author)

  13. First results from the NEWS-G direct dark matter search experiment at the LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, Q.; Asner, D.; Bard, J.-P.; Brossard, A.; Cai, B.; Chapellier, M.; Clark, M.; Corcoran, E. C.; Dandl, T.; Dastgheibi-Fard, A.; Dering, K.; Di Stefano, P.; Durnford, D.; Gerbier, G.; Giomataris, I.; Gorel, P.; Gros, M.; Guillaudin, O.; Hoppe, E. W.; Kamaha, A.; Katsioulas, I.; Kelly, D. G.; Martin, R. D.; McDonald, J.; Muraz, J.-F.; Mols, J.-P.; Navick, X.-F.; Papaevangelou, T.; Piquemal, F.; Roth, S.; Santos, D.; Savvidis, I.; Ulrich, A.; Vazquez de Sola Fernandez, F.; Zampaolo, M.

    2018-01-01

    New Experiments With Spheres-Gas (NEWS-G) is a direct dark matter detection experiment using Spherical Proportional Counters (SPCs) with light noble gases to search for low-mass Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs). We report the results from the first physics run taken at the Laboratoire Souterrain de Modane (LSM) with SEDINE, a 60 cm diameter prototype SPC operated with a mixture of Ne + CH4 (0.7%) at 3.1 bars for a total exposure of 9.6 kg · days. New constraints are set on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon scattering cross-section in the sub-GeV/c2 mass region. We exclude cross-sections above 4.4 ×10-37cm2 at 90% confidence level (C.L.) for a 0.5 GeV/c2 WIMP. The competitive results obtained with SEDINE are promising for the next phase of the NEWS-G experiment: a 140 cm diameter SPC to be installed at SNOLAB by summer 2018.

  14. Radiation monitoring network of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2005-01-01

    In 2000 Centre of Partial monitoring system 'Radioactivity of environment' was established on Slovak Hydrometeorology Institute (SHMI). Radiation monitoring network is one part of Radiation monitoring network of the Slovak Republic. At present SHMI operates in its monitoring network 23 detectors GammaTracer fy Genitron, one mobile detector and one stan by detector. All active detectors are placed in the professional meteorological stations in the selected parts of Slovakia. First one of these detectors was installed in 1999 and they replaced former type of detector (FAG). Last two detectors were installed in 2002. Detector GammaTracer has range of measurement from 20 nSv/h to 10 Sv/h. The detectors are calibrated every 2 years in the Slovak Institute of Metrology in compliance with the calibration plan. SHMI operates 4 aerosol monitors in Hurbanovo, Lucenec, Stropkov and Liesek. Filter 8 from these monitors are analysed in the Institute of Public Health (Cs-137, Be-7). On the base of bilateral agreement between the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water-Management and the Slovak Ministry of Environment Austrian side gave into the ownership of the Slovak side an automatic aerosol monitor AMS-02 including container and weather station. This monitor was installed in meteorological station Jaslovske Bohunice on 4-th October 2001. The Slovak Ministry of Environment provides the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water-Management with the readings of this monitor, free of charge, for at least 3 years and vice versa, the Austrian side gives the readings of the Austrian aerosol monitors to the Slovak Ministry of Environment free of charge. At present national monitoring center in Bratislava-Koliba is connected via ISDN line with Jaslovske Bohunice and Austrian center providing the data exchange. Radiation data (dose rate in the unit nSv/h) are collected via the Institute network to the MSS (message switch system) in the

  15. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. P. Guillod

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

  16. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-01-01

    Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

  17. Water cycle research associated with the CaPE hydrometeorology project (CHymP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchon, Claude E.

    1993-01-01

    One outgrowth of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment that took place in central Florida during July and August 1991 was the creation of the CaPE Hydrometeorology Project (CHymP). The principal goal of this project is to investigate the daily water cycle of the CaPE experimental area by analyzing the numerous land and atmosphere in situ and remotely sensed data sets that were generated during the 40-days of observations. The water cycle comprises the atmospheric branch. In turn, the atmospheric branch comprises precipitation leaving the base of the atmospheric volume under study, evaporation and transpiration entering the base, the net horizontal fluxes of water vapor and cloud water through the volume and the conversion of water vapor to cloud water and vice-versa. The sum of these components results in a time rate of change in the water and liquid water (or ice) content of the atmospheric volume. The components of the land branch are precipitation input to and evaporation and transpiration output from the surface, net horizontal fluxes of surface and subsurface water, the sum of which results in a time rate of change in surface and subsurface water mass. The objective of CHymP is to estimate these components in order to determine the daily water budget for a selected area within the CaPE domain. This work began in earnest in the summer of 1992 and continues. Even estimating all the budget components for one day is a complex and time consuming task. The discussions below provides a short summary of the rainfall quality assessment procedures followed by a plan for estimating the horizontal moisture flux.

  18. Optimal moment determination in POME-copula based hydrometeorological dependence modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi

    2017-07-01

    Copula has been commonly applied in multivariate modelling in various fields where marginal distribution inference is a key element. To develop a flexible, unbiased mathematical inference framework in hydrometeorological multivariate applications, the principle of maximum entropy (POME) is being increasingly coupled with copula. However, in previous POME-based studies, determination of optimal moment constraints has generally not been considered. The main contribution of this study is the determination of optimal moments for POME for developing a coupled optimal moment-POME-copula framework to model hydrometeorological multivariate events. In this framework, margins (marginals, or marginal distributions) are derived with the use of POME, subject to optimal moment constraints. Then, various candidate copulas are constructed according to the derived margins, and finally the most probable one is determined, based on goodness-of-fit statistics. This optimal moment-POME-copula framework is applied to model the dependence patterns of three types of hydrometeorological events: (i) single-site streamflow-water level; (ii) multi-site streamflow; and (iii) multi-site precipitation, with data collected from Yichang and Hankou in the Yangtze River basin, China. Results indicate that the optimal-moment POME is more accurate in margin fitting and the corresponding copulas reflect a good statistical performance in correlation simulation. Also, the derived copulas, capturing more patterns which traditional correlation coefficients cannot reflect, provide an efficient way in other applied scenarios concerning hydrometeorological multivariate modelling.

  19. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

  20. Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

    2013-04-01

    The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of

  1. Diagnosis of GLDAS LSM based aridity index and dryland identification for socioeconomic aspect of water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazanfari, S.; Pande, S.; Hashemy, M.; Naseri M., M.

    2012-04-01

    Water resources scarcity plays an important role in socioeconomic aspect of livelihood pattern in dryland areas. Hydrological perspective of aridity is required for social and economic coping Strategies. Identification of dryland areas is crucial to guide policy aimed at intervening in water stressed areas and addressing its perennial livelihood or food insecurity. Yet, prevailing aridity indices are beset with methodological limitations that restrict their use in delineating drylands and, might be insuffient for decision making frameworks. Palmer's Drought Severity index (PDSI) reports relative soil moisture deviations from long term means, which does not allow cross comparisons, while UNEP's aridity index, the ratio of annual evaporative demand to rainfall supply, ignores site specific soil and vegetation characteristics that are needed for appropriate water balance assessment. We propose to refine UNEP's aridity index by accounting for site specific soil and vegetation to partition precipitation into competing demands of evaporation and runoff. We create three aridity indices at a 1 x 1 degree spatial resolution based on 3 decades of soil moisture time series from three GLDAS Land Surface Models (LSM's): VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH. We compare each LSM model aridity map with the UNEP aridity map which was created based on LSM data forcing. Our approach is to extract the first Eigen function from Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis that represents the dominant spatial template of soil moisture conditions of the three LSM's. Frequency of non-exceedence of this dominant soil moisture mode for a location by all other locations is used as our proposed aridity index. The EOF analysis reveals that the first Eigen function explains, respectively, 33%, 43% and 47% of the VIC, NOAH and MOSAIC models. The temporal coefficients associated with the first OF (Orthogonal Function) for all three LSMS clearly show seasonality with a discrete jump in trend around the year 1999

  2. Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manukalo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of

  3. Assessing Nature-Based Coastal Protection against Disasters Derived from Extreme Hydrometeorological Events in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octavio Pérez-Maqueo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural ecosystems are expected to reduce the damaging effects of extreme hydrometeorological effects. We tested this prediction for Mexico by performing regression models, with two dependent variables: the occurrence of deaths and economic damages, at a state and municipality levels. For each location, the explanatory variables were the Mexican social vulnerability index (which includes socioeconomic aspects, local capacity to prevent and respond to an emergency, and the perception of risk and land use cover considering different vegetation types. We used the hydrometeorological events that have affected Mexico from 1970 to 2011. Our findings reveal that: (a hydrometeorological events affect both coastal and inland states, although damages are greater on the coast; (b the protective role of natural ecosystems only was clear at a municipality level: the presence of mangroves, tropical dry forest and tropical rainforest was related to a significant reduction in the occurrence of casualties. Social vulnerability was positively correlated with the occurrence of deaths. Natural ecosystems, both typically coastal (mangroves and terrestrial (tropical forests, which are located on the mountain ranges close to the coast function for storm protection. Thus, their conservation and restoration are effective and sustainable strategies that will help protect and develop the increasingly urbanized coasts.

  4. Documentary evidence of economic character as a source for the study of hydrometeorological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.

    2009-04-01

    Various human activities, such as agriculture, forestry and water management, have always been influenced by climate variability and hydrometeorological extremes. From this reason historical economic records often include information about contemporaneous weather as well as descriptions of its impacts. This study deals with the interpretation of hydrometeorological extremes for the territory of Moravia (eastern part of the Czech Republic) derived from taxation records and reports of domain and estate administrators. Information obtained reflects the occurrence of floods, convective storms (including hailstorms), windstorms, late spring and early autumn frosts. Based on data from eight domains or estates, frequency series of floods and convective storms (including hailstorms) were compiled for the period 1650-1849. Detail analysis of disastrous weather event from 10 August 1694 in the Pernštejn domain is used to demonstrate the potential of such data for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts on human activity. Another example is analysis of data about tax reduction due to hailstorm damage on agriculture crops in Moravia in the period 1896-1906.

  5. Application of hydrometeorological coupled European flood forecasting operational real time system in Yellow River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-qi Yan

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the application of the European flood forecasting operational real time system (EFFORTS to the Yellow River. An automatic data pre-processing program was developed to provide real-time hydrometeorological data. Various GIS layers were collected and developed to meet the demands of the distributed hydrological model in the EFFORTS. The model parameters were calibrated and validated based on more than ten years of historical hydrometeorological data from the study area. The San-Hua Basin (from the Sanmenxia Reservoir to the Huayuankou Hydrological Station, the most geographically important area of the Yellow River, was chosen as the study area. The analysis indicates that the EFFORTS enhances the work efficiency, extends the flood forecasting lead time, and attains an acceptable level of forecasting accuracy in the San-Hua Basin, with a mean deterministic coefficient at Huayuankou Station, the basin outlet, of 0.90 in calibration and 0.96 in validation. The analysis also shows that the simulation accuracy is better for the southern part than for the northern part of the San-Hua Basin. This implies that, along with the characteristics of the basin and the mechanisms of runoff generation of the hydrological model, the hydrometeorological data play an important role in simulation of hydrological behavior.

  6. Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iqra Atif

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Upper Indus basin (UIB is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001–2015 and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05 decreased with a Sen’s slope value of −2.541 m3·s−1·year−1 and −0.034 °C·year−1, respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05 increasing trend with a Sen’s slope value of 0.023 mm·year−1. In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05 with a Sen’s slope value of 1.039 m3·s−1·year−1 and 0.192 mm·year−1, respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin had a stable trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.07% year−1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.394% year−1. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly, the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the

  7. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: Hydrometeorological variability in three neighbouring catchments with different forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Beatriz H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Hegger, Zita; Leemans, Rik

    2017-09-01

    Mountain areas are characterized by a large heterogeneity in hydrological and meteorological conditions. This heterogeneity is currently poorly represented by gauging networks and by the coarse scale of global and regional climate and hydrological models. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are found in a narrow elevation range and are characterized by persistent fog. Their water balance depends on local and upwind temperatures and moisture, therefore, changes in these parameters will alter TMCF hydrology. Until recently the hydrological functioning of TMCFs was mainly studied in coastal regions, while continental TMCFs were largely ignored. This study contributes to fill this gap by focusing on a TMCF which is located on the northern eastern Andes at an elevation of 1550-2300 m asl, in the Orinoco river basin highlands. In this study, we describe the spatial and seasonal meteorological variability, analyse the corresponding catchment hydrological response to different land cover, and perform a sensitivity analysis on uncertainties related to rainfall interpolation, catchment area estimation and streamflow measurements. Hydro-meteorological measurements, including hourly solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, were collected from June 2013 to May 2014 at three gauged neighbouring catchments with contrasting TMCF/grassland cover and less than 250 m elevation difference. We found wetter and less seasonally contrasting conditions at higher elevations, indicating a positive relation between elevation and fog or rainfall persistence. This pattern is similar to that of other eastern Andean TMCFs, however, the study site had higher wet season rainfall and lower dry season rainfall suggesting that upwind contrasts in land cover and moisture can influence the meteorological conditions at eastern Andean TMCFs. Contrasting streamflow dynamics between the studied catchments reflect the overall system response

  8. Synthesis of modified calcium aluminate with lanthanum manganite (LSM) for possible use in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC); Sintese de aluminato de calcio modificado com manganita de lantanio (LSM) para possivel utilizacao em celula combustivel de oxido solido (SOFC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiga, F.C.T.; Jurado, J.; Sousa, V.C. de, E-mail: faili.cintia@gmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia. Departamento de Materiais; Cava, S.S. [Universidade Federal de Pelotas, RS (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    The fuel cells solid oxide (SOFC) is made up of three basic elements: two electrodes, the anode and cathode and a conductive electrolyte ions. The objective of this work consists of calcium aluminate synthesis modified LSM in a 1: 1 by combustion synthesis method with a view to its use as a cathode in SOFC. The characterization of the post was carried out by the methods of XRD, TEM and EIS. After heat treatment at 1200°C/4 hours it was possible to obtain Ca0.5Sr1.5MnO4 and CaMnO2.56 phases. The material showed a semiconductor characteristics because with increasing temperature the electrical resistance value tends to decrease obtaining electrical conductivity greater than 10-6S / cm featuring an extrinsic semiconductor with an activation energy of 0.12. Therefore, with an activation energy value within the range of materials used for a SOFC cathodes. (author)

  9. Overview of Hydrometeorologic Forecasting Procedures at BC Hydro

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollor, D.

    2004-12-01

    Energy utility companies must balance production from limited sources with increasing demand from industrial, business, and residential consumers. The utility planning process requires a balanced, efficient, and effective distribution of energy from source to consumer. Therefore utility planners must consider the impact of weather on energy production and consumption. Hydro-electric companies should be particularly tuned to weather because their source of energy is water, and water supply depends on precipitation. BC Hydro operates as the largest hydro-electric company in western Canada, managing over 30 reservoirs within the province of British Columbia, and generating electricity for 1.6 million people. BC Hydro relies on weather forecasts of watershed precipitation and temperature to drive hydrologic reservoir inflow models and of urban temperatures to meet energy demand requirements. Operations and planning specialists in the company rely on current, value-added weather forecasts for extreme high-inflow events, daily reservoir operations planning, and long-term water resource management. Weather plays a dominant role for BC Hydro financial planners in terms of sensitive economic responses. For example, a two percent change in hydropower generation, due in large part to annual precipitation patterns, results in an annual net change of \\50 million in earnings. A five percent change in temperature produces a \\5 million change in yearly earnings. On a daily basis, significant precipitation events or temperature extremes involve potential profit/loss decisions in the tens of thousands of dollars worth of power generation. These factors are in addition to environmental and societal costs that must be considered equally as part of a triple bottom line reporting structure. BC Hydro water resource managers require improved meteorological information from recent advancements in numerical weather prediction. At BC Hydro, methods of providing meteorological forecast data

  10. Local adaptive capacity as an alternative approach in dealing with hydrometeorological risk at Depok Peri-Urban City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitrinitia, I. S.; Junadi, P.; Sutanto, E.; Nugroho, D. A.; Zubair, A.; Suyanti, E.

    2018-03-01

    Located in a tropical area, cities in Indonesia are vulnerable to hydrometeorological risks such as flood and landslide and thus become prone to the climate change effects. Moreover, peri-urban cities had double burden as the consequences of main city spill over and also lack of urban facilities in overcoming the disaster. In another perspective, the city has many alternative resources to recover, so its create urban resiliency. Depok city becomes a case study of this research regarding with its development following the impact of Jakarta growth. This research purposes to capture how the local city dwellers could anticipate and adaptive with flood and landslide with their own mitigation version. Through mix method and spatial analysis using GIS techniques, it derives the two comparison approach, the normative and alternative that had been done by the city dwellers. It uses a spatial analysis to have a big picture of Depok and its environmental changing. It also divided into 4 local group of communities as a representative of city dwellers regarding the characteristic of a settlement with their level of risk. The result found type or characteristic of settlement which influenced the local adaptive capacity, from the establishment of infrastructure, health fulfillment and social livelihood with different kind of methods.

  11. Nuclear LSm8 affects number of cytoplasmic processing bodies via controlling cellular distribution of Like-Sm proteins

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novotný, Ivan; Podolská, Kateřina; Blažíková, Michaela; Valášek, Leoš Shivaya; Svoboda, Petr; Staněk, David

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 19 (2012), s. 3776-3785 ISSN 1059-1524 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KAN200520801; GA ČR GA204/07/0133; GA ČR GAP305/10/2215; GA ČR GAP302/11/1910; GA ČR(CZ) GBP305/12/G034 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50390703; CEZ:AV0Z50520514; CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Institutional support: RVO:68378050 ; RVO:68378041 ; RVO:61388971 Keywords : P-bodies * LSm proteins * mRNA degradation Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 4.604, year: 2012

  12. Synthesis of modified calcium aluminate with lanthanum manganite (LSM) for possible use in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veiga, F.C.T.; Jurado, J.; Sousa, V.C. de

    2016-01-01

    The fuel cells solid oxide (SOFC) is made up of three basic elements: two electrodes, the anode and cathode and a conductive electrolyte ions. The objective of this work consists of calcium aluminate synthesis modified LSM in a 1: 1 by combustion synthesis method with a view to its use as a cathode in SOFC. The characterization of the post was carried out by the methods of XRD, TEM and EIS. After heat treatment at 1200°C/4 hours it was possible to obtain Ca0.5Sr1.5MnO4 and CaMnO2.56 phases. The material showed a semiconductor characteristics because with increasing temperature the electrical resistance value tends to decrease obtaining electrical conductivity greater than 10-6S / cm featuring an extrinsic semiconductor with an activation energy of 0.12. Therefore, with an activation energy value within the range of materials used for a SOFC cathodes. (author)

  13. Characterization of LSM/CGO Symmetric Cells Modified by NOx Adsorbents for Electrochemical NOx Removal with Impedance Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shao, Jing; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2013-01-01

    in the resistance of the low-frequency processes, which were ascribed to adsorption, diffusion, and transfer of O2 species and NOx species at or near the triple phase boundary (TPB) region and the formation of the reaction intermediate NO2. The BaO impregnation improved the adsorption of NOx on the LSM....../CGO electrode by selectively trapping NO2 in the form of nitrate over the BaO sites and provided availability for a direct reduction of the stored nitrate. The BaO-Pt-Al2O3 layer enhanced the NOx adsorption and promoted the formation of NO2 due to the NO oxidation ability of the Pt catalyst, but hindered...... the gas diffusion to the reaction sites....

  14. Analysis of the sintering stresses and shape distortion produced in co-firing of CGO-LSM/CGO bi-layer porous structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ni, De Wei; Esposito, Vincenzo; Schmidt, Cristine Grings

    such as cracks, de-lamination and shape distortion can result as a consequence of sintering mismatch stresses caused by the strain rate difference between layers. This work seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms that occur during the co-firing of porous CGO-LSM/CGO bi-layer laminates, by evaluating...... the sintering mismatch stress and distortion development through modeling and experiments....

  15. A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorol...

  16. Mapping microscopic order in plant and mammalian cells and tissues: novel differential polarization attachment for new generation confocal microscopes (DP-LSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbach, G.; Pawlak, K.; Pomozi, I.; Tóth, E. A.; Molnár, A.; Matkó, J.; Garab, G.

    2014-03-01

    Elucidation of the molecular architecture of complex, highly organized molecular macro-assemblies is an important, basic task for biology. Differential polarization (DP) measurements, such as linear (LD) and circular dichroism (CD) or the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), which can be carried out in a dichrograph or spectrofluorimeter, respectively, carry unique, spatially averaged information about the molecular organization of the sample. For inhomogeneous samples—e.g. cells and tissues—measurements on macroscopic scale are not satisfactory, and in some cases not feasible, thus microscopic techniques must be applied. The microscopic DP-imaging technique, when based on confocal laser scanning microscope (LSM), allows the pixel by pixel mapping of anisotropy of a sample in 2D and 3D. The first DP-LSM configuration, which, in fluorescence mode, allowed confocal imaging of different DP quantities in real-time, without interfering with the ‘conventional’ imaging, was built on a Zeiss LSM410. It was demonstrated to be capable of determining non-confocally the linear birefringence (LB) or LD of a sample and, confocally, its FDLD (fluorescence detected LD), the degree of polarization (P) and the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), following polarized and non-polarized excitation, respectively (Steinbach et al 2009 Acta Histochem.111 316-25). This DP-LSM configuration, however, cannot simply be adopted to new generation microscopes with considerably more compact structures. As shown here, for an Olympus FV500, we designed an easy-to-install DP attachment to determine LB, LD, FDLD and r, in new-generation confocal microscopes, which, in principle, can be complemented with a P-imaging unit, but specifically to the brand and type of LSM.

  17. Mapping microscopic order in plant and mammalian cells and tissues: novel differential polarization attachment for new generation confocal microscopes (DP-LSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinbach, G; Pawlak, K; Garab, G; Pomozi, I; Tóth, E A; Molnár, A; Matkó, J

    2014-01-01

    Elucidation of the molecular architecture of complex, highly organized molecular macro-assemblies is an important, basic task for biology. Differential polarization (DP) measurements, such as linear (LD) and circular dichroism (CD) or the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), which can be carried out in a dichrograph or spectrofluorimeter, respectively, carry unique, spatially averaged information about the molecular organization of the sample. For inhomogeneous samples—e.g. cells and tissues—measurements on macroscopic scale are not satisfactory, and in some cases not feasible, thus microscopic techniques must be applied. The microscopic DP-imaging technique, when based on confocal laser scanning microscope (LSM), allows the pixel by pixel mapping of anisotropy of a sample in 2D and 3D. The first DP-LSM configuration, which, in fluorescence mode, allowed confocal imaging of different DP quantities in real-time, without interfering with the ‘conventional’ imaging, was built on a Zeiss LSM410. It was demonstrated to be capable of determining non-confocally the linear birefringence (LB) or LD of a sample and, confocally, its FDLD (fluorescence detected LD), the degree of polarization (P) and the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), following polarized and non-polarized excitation, respectively (Steinbach et al 2009 Acta Histochem.111 316–25). This DP-LSM configuration, however, cannot simply be adopted to new generation microscopes with considerably more compact structures. As shown here, for an Olympus FV500, we designed an easy-to-install DP attachment to determine LB, LD, FDLD and r, in new-generation confocal microscopes, which, in principle, can be complemented with a P-imaging unit, but specifically to the brand and type of LSM. (paper)

  18. Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

    2013-04-01

    variance-enhanced products, compared to the bi-linear interpolation, which is a decisive advantage. The disaggregation technique of Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) hence represents an interesting way of bridging the gap between the meteorological models' resolution and the high degree of spatial precision sometimes required by hydrological models in their precipitation representation. References Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J., Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema, V. K. C., Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and Thiele-Eich, I. 2010. Precipitation downscaling under climate change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Reviews of Geophysics, 48 (3): RG3003, [np]. Doi: 10.1029/2009RG000314. Perica, S., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E. 1996. Model for multiscale disaggregation of spatial rainfall based on coupling meteorological and scaling descriptions. Journal Of Geophysical Research, 101(D21): 26347-26361. Ruiz, J., Saulo, C. and Kalnay, E. 2009. Comparison of Methods Used to Generate Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over South America. Weather and forecasting, 24: 319-336. DOI: 10.1175/2008WAF2007098.1 This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License together with an author copyright. This license does not conflict with the regulations of the Crown Copyright.

  19. Mathematical Modelling of Thermal Process to Aquatic Environment with Different Hydrometeorological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alibek Issakhov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the mathematical model of the thermal process from thermal power plant to aquatic environment of the reservoir-cooler, which is located in the Pavlodar region, 17 Km to the north-east of Ekibastuz town. The thermal process in reservoir-cooler with different hydrometeorological conditions is considered, which is solved by three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and temperature equation for an incompressible flow in a stratified medium. A numerical method based on the projection method, divides the problem into three stages. At the first stage, it is assumed that the transfer of momentum occurs only by convection and diffusion. Intermediate velocity field is solved by fractional steps method. At the second stage, three-dimensional Poisson equation is solved by the Fourier method in combination with tridiagonal matrix method (Thomas algorithm. Finally, at the third stage, it is expected that the transfer is only due to the pressure gradient. Numerical method determines the basic laws of the hydrothermal processes that qualitatively and quantitatively are approximated depending on different hydrometeorological conditions.

  20. Entropy-based derivation of generalized distributions for hydrometeorological frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lu; Singh, Vijay P.

    2018-02-01

    Frequency analysis of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes is needed for the design of hydraulic and civil infrastructure facilities as well as water resources management. A multitude of distributions have been employed for frequency analysis of these extremes. However, no single distribution has been accepted as a global standard. Employing the entropy theory, this study derived five generalized distributions for frequency analysis that used different kinds of information encoded as constraints. These distributions were the generalized gamma (GG), the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2), and the Halphen type A distribution (Hal-A), Halphen type B distribution (Hal-B) and Halphen type inverse B distribution (Hal-IB), among which the GG and GB2 distribution were previously derived by Papalexiou and Koutsoyiannis (2012) and the Halphen family was first derived using entropy theory in this paper. The entropy theory allowed to estimate parameters of the distributions in terms of the constraints used for their derivation. The distributions were tested using extreme daily and hourly rainfall data. Results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) values were very small, which indicated that the five generalized distributions fitted the extreme rainfall data well. Among them, according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values, generally the GB2 and Halphen family gave a better fit. Therefore, those general distributions are one of the best choices for frequency analysis. The entropy-based derivation led to a new way for frequency analysis of hydrometeorological extremes.

  1. Spatiotemporal analysis of hydro-meteorological drought in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Mou Leong; Chua, Vivien P.; Li, Cheng; Brindha, K.

    2018-02-01

    Assessment of historical hydro-meteorological drought is important to develop a robust drought monitoring and prediction system. This study aims to assess the historical hydro-meteorological drought of the Johor River Basin (JRB) from 1975 to 2010, an important basin for the population of southern Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were selected to represent the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Four absolute homogeneity tests were used to assess the rainfall data from 20 stations, and two stations were flagged by these tests. Results indicate the SPI duration to be comparatively low (3 months), and drier conditions occur over the upper JRB. The annual SSI had a strong decreasing trend at 95% significance level, showing that human activities such as reservoir construction and agriculture (oil palm) have a major influence on streamflow in the middle and lower basin. In addition, moderate response rate of SSI to SPI was found, indicating that hydrological drought could also have occurred in normal climate condition. Generally, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation have greater impacts on drought events in the basin. Findings of this study could be beneficial for future drought projection and water resources management.

  2. Enhanced Soil Moisture Initialization Using Blended Soil Moisture Product and Regional Optimization of LSM-RTM Coupled Land Data Assimilation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, A. S.; Indu, J.

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of soil moisture dynamics is high priority research challenge because of the complex land-atmosphere interaction processes. Soil moisture (SM) plays a decisive role in governing water and energy balance of the terrestrial system. An accurate SM estimate is imperative for hydrological and weather prediction models. Though SM estimates are available from microwave remote sensing and land surface model (LSM) simulations, it is affected by uncertainties from several sources during estimation. Past studies have generally focused on land data assimilation (DA) for improving LSM predictions by assimilating soil moisture from single satellite sensor. This approach is limited by the large time gap between two consequent soil moisture observations due to satellite repeat cycle of more than three days at the equator. To overcome this, in the present study, we have performed DA using ensemble products from the soil moisture operational product system (SMOPS) blended soil moisture retrievals from different satellite sensors into Noah LSM. Before the assimilation period, the Noah LSM is initialized by cycling through seven multiple loops from 2008 to 2010 forcing with Global data assimilation system (GDAS) data over the Indian subcontinent. We assimilated SMOPS into Noah LSM for a period of two years from 2010 to 2011 using Ensemble Kalman Filter within NASA's land information system (LIS) framework. Results show that DA has improved Noah LSM prediction with a high correlation of 0.96 and low root mean square difference of 0.0303 m3/m3 (figure 1a). Further, this study has also investigated the notion of assimilating microwave brightness temperature (Tb) as a proxy for SM estimates owing to the close proximity of Tb and SM. Preliminary sensitivity analysis show a strong need for regional parameterization of radiative transfer models (RTMs) to improve Tb simulation. Towards this goal, we have optimized the forward RTM using swarm optimization technique for direct Tb

  3. Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

  4. Structural and electrical characterization of spray deposited La0.9Sr0.1MnO3 (LSM) thin film

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukadam, A.M.; Nimat, R.K.; Kamble, B.S.; Fulari, V.J.

    2014-01-01

    The perovskite with general formula ABO 3 where, A = La, Sr and B = Co, Fe, Mn, have many applications such as gas separation membranes, catalysts, gas sensors and have been shown the best mixed electronic and ionic conductivity (MIEC), stability and compatibility as cathode materials for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). The Strontium doped lanthanum manganite (La 1-x Sr x MnO 3 , LSM) have been utilized as a cathode for SOFC because of its high electrochemical activity for oxygen reduction and good stability and compatibility with YSZ electrolyte. The use of LSM is not applicable for a low-temperature SOFC due to its low oxygen ion conductivity and high activation energy

  5. Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

    2003-04-01

    historic data access. These layers are also sufficient for a hydro-meteorological situation visualisations suitable for the country and division maps. The existing data and thematic layers were used to develop an Internet service providing the information concerning the hydro-meteorological posts. It also allowed presenting the results of the numerical weather forecast model in the Internet. It is planned to perform the visualisation of the hydro-meteorological phenomena in the monthly IMWM bulletin.

  6. Highlights of advances in the field of hydrometeorological research brought about by the DRIHM project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caumont, Olivier; Hally, Alan; Garrote, Luis; Richard, Évelyne; Weerts, Albrecht; Delogu, Fabio; Fiori, Elisabetta; Rebora, Nicola; Parodi, Antonio; Mihalović, Ana; Ivković, Marija; Dekić, Ljiljana; van Verseveld, Willem; Nuissier, Olivier; Ducrocq, Véronique; D'Agostino, Daniele; Galizia, Antonella; Danovaro, Emanuele; Clematis, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    The FP7 DRIHM (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology, http://www.drihm.eu, 2011-2015) project intends to develop a prototype e-Science environment to facilitate the collaboration between meteorologists, hydrologists, and Earth science experts for accelerated scientific advances in Hydro-Meteorology Research (HMR). As the project comes to its end, this presentation will summarize the HMR results that have been obtained in the framework of DRIHM. The vision shaped and implemented in the framework of the DRIHM project enables the production and interpretation of numerous, complex compositions of hydrometeorological simulations of flood events from rainfall, either simulated or modelled, down to discharge. Each element of a composition is drawn from a set of various state-of-the-art models. Atmospheric simulations providing high-resolution rainfall forecasts involve different global and limited-area convection-resolving models, the former being used as boundary conditions for the latter. Some of these models can be run as ensembles, i.e. with perturbed boundary conditions, initial conditions and/or physics, thus sampling the probability density function of rainfall forecasts. In addition, a stochastic downscaling algorithm can be used to create high-resolution rainfall ensemble forecasts from deterministic lower-resolution forecasts. All these rainfall forecasts may be used as input to various rainfall-discharge hydrological models that compute the resulting stream flows for catchments of interest. In some hydrological simulations, physical parameters are perturbed to take into account model errors. As a result, six different kinds of rainfall data (either deterministic or probabilistic) can currently be compared with each other and combined with three different hydrological model engines running either in deterministic or probabilistic mode. HMR topics which are allowed or facilitated by such unprecedented sets of hydrometerological forecasts

  7. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Chromá, Kateřina; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 2 (2012), s. 467-481 ISSN 1814-9324 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : documentary evidence * hydrometeorological extremes * tax alleviation * flood * hailstorm * torrential rain Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.556, year: 2012

  8. Extreme hydrometeorological events in the Peruvian Central Andes during austral summer and their relationship with the large-scale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, Juan C.

    In this Master's dissertation, atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in the Mantaro Basin, Peruvian Central Andes, and their teleconnections during the austral summer (December-January-February-March) are addressed. Extreme rainfall events in the Mantaro basin are related to variations of the large-scale circulation as indicated by the changing strength of the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system. Dry (wet) spells are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the BH-NL system and reduced (enhanced) influx of moist air from the lowlands to the east due to strengthened westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels. At the same time extreme rainfall events of the opposite sign occur over northeastern Brazil (NEB) due to enhanced (inhibited) convective activity in conjunction with a strengthened (weakened) Nordeste Low. Cold episodes in the Mantaro Basin are grouped in three types: weak, strong and extraordinary cold episodes. Weak and strong cold episodes in the MB are mainly associated with a weakening of the BH-NL system due to tropical-extratropical interactions. Both types of cold episodes are associated with westerly wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels aloft the Peruvian Central Andes, which inhibit the influx of humid air masses from the lowlands to the east and hence limit the potential for development of convective cloud cover. The resulting clear sky conditions cause nighttime temperatures to drop, leading to cold extremes below the 10-percentile. Extraordinary cold episodes in the MB are associated with cold and dry polar air advection at all tropospheric levels toward the central Peruvian Andes. Therefore, weak and strong cold episodes in the MB appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection, while the latter plays an important role for extraordinary cold episodes only.

  9. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Altava-Ortiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  10. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Barnolas, M.; López, L.; Altava-Ortiz, V.

    2009-07-01

    This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  11. Family archives as a source of information about past hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia (Czech Republic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2014-05-01

    Meteorological and hydrological extremes (hydrometeorological extremes - HMEs) cause great material damage or even loss of human lives in the present time, as well as it was in the past. For the study of their temporal and spatial variability in periods with only natural forcing factors in comparison with those combining also anthropogenic effects it is essential to have the longest possible series of HMEs. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. Therefore, in order to create long-term series of such extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information. There exist different types of documentary evidence used in historical climatology and hydrology, represented by various sources such as annals, chronicles, diaries, private letters, newspapers etc. Besides them, institutional documentary evidence (of economic and administrative character) has particular importance (e.g. taxation records). Documents in family archives represent further promising source of data related to HMEs. The documents kept by the most important lord families in Moravia (e.g. Liechtensteins, Dietrichsteins) are located in Moravian Land Archives in Brno. Besides data about family members, industrial and agricultural business, military questions, travelling and social events, they contain direct or indirect information about HMEs. It concerns descriptions of catastrophic phenomena on the particular demesne (mainly with respect to damage) as well as correspondence related to tax reductions (i.e. they can overlap with taxation records of particular estates). This contribution shows the potential of family archives as a source of information about HMEs, up to now only rarely used, which may extend our knowledge about them. Several examples of such documents are presented. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern

  12. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  13. An End-to-End System to Enable Quick, Easy and Inexpensive Deployment of Hydrometeorological Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celicourt, P.; Piasecki, M.

    2014-12-01

    The high cost of hydro-meteorological data acquisition, communication and publication systems along with limited qualified human resources is considered as the main reason why hydro-meteorological data collection remains a challenge especially in developing countries. Despite significant advances in sensor network technologies which gave birth to open hardware and software, low-cost (less than $50) and low-power (in the order of a few miliWatts) sensor platforms in the last two decades, sensors and sensor network deployment remains a labor-intensive, time consuming, cumbersome, and thus expensive task. These factors give rise for the need to develop a affordable, simple to deploy, scalable and self-organizing end-to-end (from sensor to publication) system suitable for deployment in such countries. The design of the envisioned system will consist of a few Sensed-And-Programmed Arduino-based sensor nodes with low-cost sensors measuring parameters relevant to hydrological processes and a Raspberry Pi micro-computer hosting the in-the-field back-end data management. This latter comprises the Python/Django model of the CUAHSI Observations Data Model (ODM) namely DjangODM backed by a PostgreSQL Database Server. We are also developing a Python-based data processing script which will be paired with the data autoloading capability of Django to populate the DjangODM database with the incoming data. To publish the data, the WOFpy (WaterOneFlow Web Services in Python) developed by the Texas Water Development Board for 'Water Data for Texas' which can produce WaterML web services from a variety of back-end database installations such as SQLite, MySQL, and PostgreSQL will be used. A step further would be the development of an appealing online visualization tool using Python statistics and analytics tools (Scipy, Numpy, Pandas) showing the spatial distribution of variables across an entire watershed as a time variant layer on top of a basemap.

  14. Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the

  15. HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT IN THE SINGKARAK BASIN, WEST SUMATRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasdi Subagyono

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Studi tentang karakteristik hidro-meteorologi telah dilakukan di wilayah danau Singkarak pada 2006-2007 dengan melibatkan partisipasi masyarakat. Stasiun iklim otomatis dan pengukur tinggi muka air otomatis dipasang untuk memonitor data hidrologi dan meteorologi di wilayah cekungan Singkarak. Data meteorologi dianalisa untuk mengetahui karakteristik iklim di wilayah sekitar danau. Model hidrologi GR4J dan H2U diaplikasikan untuk simulasi discharge dan untuk mengkarakterisasi proses hidrologi di wilayah danau. Simulasi model aliran divalidasi pada musim hujan. Alternatif pengelolaan lahan diformulasikan berdasarkan karakteristik hidrologi daerah aliran sungai di sekitar cekungan Singkarak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa daerah tangkapan di sekitar danau Singkarak memiliki respon yang tinggi terhadap jumlah dan intensitas hujan. Hidrograp menunjukkan peningkatan yang tajam dari discharge segera setelah curah hujan mulai dan menurun relative lamban ketika curah hujan berhenti. Untuk pengelolaan lahan secara berkelanjutan di wilayah danau Singkarak, konservasi lahan dan air harus menjadi prioritas utama. Wanatani dapat diimplementasikan sebagai alternatif sistem pertanaman oleh penduduk lokal. Karena potensi kelangkaan air bisa terjadi pada periode kering, panen air dan konservasi air dapat diterapkan sebagai opsi yang dapat dikombinasikan dalam sistem pengelolaan lahan.   Hydro-meteorological processes of the Singkarak basin has been studied involving participatory of local community in 2006-2007. Automatic weather station (AWS and automatic water level recorder (AWLR were installed to record meteorological and hydrological data within the Singkarak Basin. Meteorological data was analyzed to understand the meteorological characteristic surrounding the Basin area. Model of GR4J and H2U were used to simulated discharge and to understand the hydrological processes within the basin. The validation of simulated discharge was done in the wet season

  16. Impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands in 1706–1889 as derived from taxation records

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, H.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, č. 4 (2015), s. 465-488 ISSN 1212-0014 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-19831S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : historical climatology * ice-age * documentary * vulnerability * temperatures * europe * winter * hydrometeorological extremes * taxation records * damage * impacts * Bohemian-Moravian Highlands Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.415, year: 2015

  17. Radioactivity monitoring network of slovak hydrometeorological institute and its activity within the framework of nuclear emergency information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prochazkova, A; Trcka, T [Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratsislava (Slovakia)

    1996-12-31

    Slovak hydrometeorological institute (SHMI) radioactivity monitoring network is a part of nuclear radiation early warning system. This paper describes the aim and the structure of the monitoring system. Paper presents a short description of radioactivity monitoring network of SHMI and its connection with Austrian and German systems. It provides national means for the monitoring of the radiological effects of nuclear accident and for informing government departments and the public.(J.K.) 2 figs.

  18. Radioactivity monitoring network of slovak hydrometeorological institute and its activity within the framework of nuclear emergency information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prochazkova, A.; Trcka, T.

    1995-01-01

    Slovak hydrometeorological institute (SHMI) radioactivity monitoring network is a part of nuclear radiation early warning system. This paper describes the aim and the structure of the monitoring system. Paper presents a short description of radioactivity monitoring network of SHMI and its connection with Austrian and German systems. It provides national means for the monitoring of the radiological effects of nuclear accident and for informing government departments and the public.(J.K.) 2 figs

  19. Hybrid Wavelet De-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, D.; Wang, Y.; Zeng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, Wavelet De-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

  20. In situ characterization of delamination and crack growth of a CGO–LSM multi-layer ceramic sample investigated by X-ray tomographic microscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Esposito, Vincenzo; Lauridsen, Erik Mejdal

    2014-01-01

    The densification, delamination and crack growth behavior in a Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95 (CGO) and (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3 (LSM) multi-layer ceramic sample was studied using in situ X-ray tomographic microscopy (microtomography) to investigate the critical dynamics of crack propagation and delamination...... in a multilayered sample. Naturally occurring defects, caused by the sample preparation process, are shown not to be critical in sample degradation. Instead defects are nucleated during the debinding step. Crack growth is significantly faster along the material layers than perpendicular to them, and crack growth...

  1. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  2. Effects of glaciological and hydro-meteorological conditions on the glacial danger in Zailiyskiy Alatau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Medeu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A need to estimate a hazard of a mudflow stream appearance in the glacial-nival zone of the Northern slope of Zailiyskiy Alatau (Kasakhstan is now one of the really urgent problems. The objective of this study was to inves‑ tigate influence of glacial and hydrometeorological factors on the condition of snow-glacial zone of Zailiyskiy Alatau and find out a mudflow-forming role of the mudflow centers arising due to climate warming and degra‑ dation of glaciation: periglacial lakes, intramoraine channels and reservoirs, and also talik massifs of morainic deposits. We analyzed glacial processes in the Zailiysky Alatau over a long period using meteorological data of the Almaty weather station and its close correlations with data from weather stations in the mountains. The area of glaciations was found out to be reduced after the maximum of the Little Ice Age. A combined diagram of occurrence of the mudflow manifestations and factors causing them had been constructed on the basis of sta‑ tistical data on the landslide phenomena. Glacial mudflows were the most frequent in 1960–1990, and later on activity of them became weaker. We believe, that in the next 10–20 years, the glacial mudflow hazard in Zailiys‑ kiy Alatau can sharply decrease, but at the same time, a probability of occurrence of the rainfall mudflows can increase in the mountainous zone of the ridge due the increase of areas with melted moraine and slope deposits.

  3. Identification and diagnosis of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological structure of heavy precipitation induced floods in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, M.; Hao, X.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme floods have a long history of being an important cause of death and destruction worldwide. It is estimated by Munich RE and Swiss RE that floods and severe storms dominate all other natural hazards globally in terms of average annual property loss and human fatalities. The top 5 most disastrous floods in the period from 1900 to 2015, ranked by economic damage, are all in the Asian monsoon region. This study presents an interdisciplinary approach integrating hydrometeorology, atmospheric science and state-of-the-art space-time statistics and modeling to investigate the association between the space-time characteristics of floods, precipitation and atmospheric moisture transport in a statistical and physical framework, using tropical moisture export dataset and curve clustering algorithm to study the source-to-destination features; explore the teleconnected climate regulations on the moisture formation process at different timescales (PDO, ENSO and MJO), and study the role of the synoptic-to-large atmospheric steering on the moisture transport and convergence.

  4. Analysis of impacts on hydrometeorological extremes in the Senegal River Basin from REMO RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galiano, Sandra Garcia; Osorio, Juan Diego Giraldo [Technical Univ. of Cartagena, Dept. of Thermal Engineering and Fluids, Cartagena (Spain)

    2010-06-15

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability. The precipitation latitudinal gradient determines agricultural activities. The cultivated area of the Sahel is a densely populated region, whereas flood recession agriculture is practiced in the Senegal River Valley. The present study analyses both spatial-temporal rainfall patterns of the REMO Regional Climate Model (RCM) and observed rainfall data, focusing in particular on extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena. An analysis of simulated daily rainfall data was performed to determine the frequency and magnitude of length of dry spells, as well as the extreme rainfall events. A projected annual decrease in rainfall on horizon 2050 could be explained by two factors: the decrease in the percentage of rainy days on both west and north sides of the basin, and the decrease of precipitation amount for rainy days in the southern basin. Finally, an increase in the frequency of dry spell in the monsoon season by 2050 is projected. Such findings are significant in a framework of strategies for water resources management and planning at basin scale, in order to build adaptive capacity. (orig.)

  5. An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Eastman, Joseph L.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2007-01-01

    Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

  6. Seasonality Effects on Nonlinear Properties of Hydrometeorological Records: A New Method of Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livina, V. N.; Ashkenazy, Y.; Bunde, A.; Havlin, S.

    2007-12-01

    Climatic time series in general, and hydrological time series in particular, exhibit pronounced annual periodicity. This periodicity and its corresponding harmonics affect the nonlinear properties of the relevant time series (i.e., the long-range volatility correlations and width of multifractal spectrum) and thus have to be filtered out before studying fractal and volatility properties. We compare several filtering techniques (one of them proposed here) and find that in order to eliminate the periodicity effect on the nonlinear properties of the time series (i.e., the volatility and multifractal properties) it is necessary to filter out the seasonal standard deviation in addition to the filtering of the seasonal mean. The obtained results indicate weak volatility correlations (weak nonlinearity) in the river data, and this can be seen using different filterings approaches. [1] Livina~V.~N., Y.~Ashkenazy, A.~Bunde, and S.~Havlin, Seasonality effects on nonlinear properties of hydrometeorological records, in Extremes, Trends, and Correlations in Hydrology and Climate (ed. by J.P.Kropp & H.-J.Schellnhuber), Springer, Berlin, submitted.

  7. Spatiotemporal variability of water and energy fluxes: TERENO- prealpine hydrometeorological data analysis and inverse modeling with GEOtop and PEST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltani, M.; Kunstmann, H.; Laux, P.; Mauder, M.

    2016-12-01

    In mountainous and prealpine regions echohydrological processes exhibit rapid changes within short distances due to the complex orography and strong elevation gradients. Water- and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere are crucial drivers for nearly all ecosystem processes. The aim of this research is to analyze the variability of surface water- and energy fluxes by both comprehensive observational hydrometeorological data analysis and process-based high resolution hydrological modeling for a mountainous and prealpine region in Germany. We particularly focus on the closure of the observed energy balance and on the added value of energy flux observations for parameter estimation in our hydrological model (GEOtop) by inverse modeling using PEST. Our study area is the catchment of the river Rott (55 km2), being part of the TERENO prealpine observatory in Southern Germany, and we focus particularly on the observations during the summer episode May to July 2013. We present the coupling of GEOtop and the parameter estimation tool PEST, which is based on the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg method, a gradient-based nonlinear parameter estimation algorithm. Estimation of the surface energy partitioning during the data analysis process revealed that the latent heat flux was considered as the main consumer of available energy. The relative imbalance was largest during nocturnal periods. An energy imbalance was observed at the eddy-covariance site Fendt due to either underestimated turbulent fluxes or overestimated available energy. The calculation of the simulated energy and water balances for the entire catchment indicated that 78% of net radiation leaves the catchment as latent heat flux, 17% as sensible heat, and 5% enters the soil in the form of soil heat flux. 45% of the catchment aggregated precipitation leaves the catchment as discharge and 55% as evaporation. Using the developed GEOtop-PEST interface, the hydrological model is calibrated by comparing

  8. Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

    2015-04-01

    In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach

  9. The Mexican hydro-meteorological disasters and climate network (redesclim) as model on outreach decision makers on disaster public policy in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Rodriguez-Estevez, J. M., Sr.; Romo-Aguilar, M. D. L.; Brito-Castillo, L.; Salinas-Prieto, A.; Gonzalez-Sosa, E.; Pérez-Campuzano, E.

    2017-12-01

    REDESCLIM was designed and develop in 2011 due to a public call from The Science and Technology Mexican Council (CONACYT); CONACYT lead the activities for its organization and development among the academic community. REDESCLIM was created to enhance the capacity of response to hydro-meteorological disasters and climate events through an integrative effort of researchers, technologists, entrepreneurs, politicians and society. Brief summary of our objectives: 1) Understand the causes of disasters, to reduce risks to society and ecosystems 2) Support research and interdisciplinary assessment of the physical processes in natural and social phenomena to improve understanding of causes and impacts 3) Strengths collaboration with academic, government, private and other interdisciplinary networks from Mexico and other countries 4) Build human capacity and promote the development of skills 5) Recommend strategies for climate hazard prevention, mitigation and response, especially for hazard with the greatest impacts in Mexico, such as hurricanes, floods, drought, wild fires and other extremes events. We provide a continues communication channel on members research results to provide scientific information that could be used for different proposes, specificaly for decision makers who are dealing with ecological and hydro meteorological problems that can result in disasters, and provide a services menu based on the members scientific projects, publications, teaching courses, in order to impact public policy as final result. http://www.redesclim.org.mx. So far we have some basic results: Fiver national meetings (participants from 35 countries around the world), 7 Workshops and seminars (virtual and in-person), Climatic data platforms ( http://clicom.mex.cicese.mx, http://clicom-mex.cicese.mx/malla, http://atlasclimatico.unam.mx/REDESCLIM2/ ), climate change scenarios for the general public at http://escenarios.inecc.gob.mx, 14 seed projects, one model to hurricane simulation

  10. Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of

  11. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2011-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling

  12. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  13. Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

    2015-07-01

    This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

  14. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  15. The North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017: A New Look at an Old Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying moisture recycling and determining water vapor source regions for deep convective precipitation have been problematic, particular in tropical continental regions. More than an academic concern, modeling convective precipitation, from cloud-resolving to global climate models, depends critically on properly representing atmospheric water vapor transport, its vertical distribution, as well as surface latent heat flux contributions. The North American Monsoon region, given its complex topography, proximity to warm oceans, striking vegetation "green up" and oftentimes subtle dynamical forcing is particular challenging in this regard. Recent studies, employing modeling and observational approaches, give a prominent role for moisture recycling in fomenting deep convective precipitation. Likewise, these studies argue for the increased importance of transport from the Gulf of Mexico/Central America and the Atlantic Ocean, relative to the Pacific Ocean/Gulf of California. In this presentation, we critically review these studies which served to motivate the NAM GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017, detailed here. This bi-national (Mexico-US) 3-month campaign to examine water vapor source regions, and specifically, land-surface water vapor fluxes consists of 10 experimental GPS meteorological sites as well as TLALOCNet and Suominet GPS sites in the Mexican states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Baja California and in Arizona and New Mexico. Near Rayón Sonora, inside the larger regional GPSmet array, a 30km eddy covariance flux tower triangular array, with collocated GPSmet, measures continuous energy fluxes and precipitable water vapor. Preliminary results examining the local flux contribution in the triangular array to total precipitable water vapor measured are presented. Further research is then outlined.

  16. A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong; Borthwick, Alistair G; He, Handan; Wang, Yuankun; Zhu, Jieyu; Lu, Yuan; Xu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

    2018-01-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Valášek

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751–1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751–1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types include hailstorm (25.7%, torrential rain (21.7%, flood (21.0%, followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890 and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847. Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816–1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961–2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May–August and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance. Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  18. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751-1900 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-03-01

    Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  19. Supporting Hydrometeorological Research and Applications with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Products and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, D.; Vollmer, B.; Deshong, B.; MacRitchie, K.; Greene, M.; Kempler, S.

    2016-01-01

    Precipitation is an important dataset in hydrometeorological research and applications such as flood modeling, drought monitoring, etc. On February 27, 2014, the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched to provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow (http:pmm.nasa.govGPM). The GPM mission consists of an international network of satellites in which a GPM Core Observatory satellite carries both active and passive microwave instruments to measure precipitation and serve as a reference standard, to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of other research and operational satellites. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) hosts and distributes GPM data. The GES DISC is home to the data archive for the GPM predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). GPM products currently available include the following:1. Level-1 GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and partner radiometer products2. Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) GMI and partner products (Level-2 and Level-3)3. GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar and their combined products (Level-2 and Level-3)4. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products (early, late, and final run)GPM data can be accessed through a number of data services (e.g., Simple Subset Wizard, OPeNDAP, WMS, WCS, ftp, etc.). A newly released Unified User Interface or UUI is a single interface to provide users seamless access to data, information and services. For example, a search for precipitation products will not only return TRMM and GPM products, but also other global precipitation products such as MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems), etc.New features and capabilities have been recently added in GIOVANNI to allow exploring and inter-comparing GPM IMERG (Integrated Multi-satelliE Retrievals for GPM) half-hourly and monthly precipitation

  20. TLALOCNet continuous GPS-Met Array in Mexico supporting the 2017 NAM GPS Hydrometeorological Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral-Cano, E.; Salazar-Tlaczani, L.; Adams, D. K.; Vivoni, E. R.; Grutter, M.; Serra, Y. L.; DeMets, C.; Galetzka, J.; Feaux, K.; Mattioli, G. S.; Miller, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    TLALOCNet is a network of continuous GPS and meteorology stations in Mexico to study atmospheric and solid earth processes. This recently completed network spans most of Mexico with a strong coverage emphasis on southern and western Mexico. This network, funded by NSF, CONACyT and UNAM, recently built 40 cGPS-Met sites to EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory standards and upgraded 25 additional GPS stations. TLALOCNet provides open and freely available raw GPS data, and high frequency surface meteorology measurements, and time series of daily positions. This is accomplished through the development of the TLALOCNet data center (http://tlalocnet.udg.mx) that serves as a collection and distribution point. This data center is based on UNAVCO's Dataworks-GSAC software and also works as part of UNAVCO's seamless archive for discovery, sharing, and access to GPS data. The TLALOCNet data center also contains contributed data from several regional GPS networks in Mexico for a total of 100+ stations. By using the same protocols and structure as the UNAVCO and other COCONet regional data centers, the scientific community has the capability of accessing data from the largest Mexican GPS network. This archive provides a fully queryable and scriptable GPS and Meteorological data retrieval point. In addition, real-time 1Hz streams from selected TLALOCNet stations are available in BINEX, RTCM 2.3 and RTCM 3.1 formats via the Networked Transport of RTCM via Internet Protocol (NTRIP) for real-time seismic and weather forecasting applications. TLALOCNet served as a GPS-Met backbone for the binational Mexico-US North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017 campaign experiment. This innovative experiment attempts to address water vapor source regions and land-surface water vapor flux contributions to precipitation (i.e., moisture recycling) during the 2017 North American Monsoon in Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Arizona. Models suggest that moisture recycling is

  1. Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaard, Thom; Greco, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up.Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger-cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.

  2. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Reichle, Rolf H.

    2009-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by

  3. Toward Improving Predictability of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events: the Use of Multi-scale Climate Modeling in the Northern High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Torres-Alavez, J.; Mohamad Abadi, A.; Walko, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    Our goal is to investigate possible sources of predictability of hydrometeorological extreme events in the Northern High Plains. Hydrometeorological extreme events are considered the most costly natural phenomena. Water deficits and surpluses highlight how the water-climate interdependence becomes crucial in areas where single activities drive economies such as Agriculture in the NHP. Nonetheless we recognize the Water-Climate interdependence and the regulatory role that human activities play, we still grapple to identify what sources of predictability could be added to flood and drought forecasts. To identify the benefit of multi-scale climate modeling and the role of initial conditions on flood and drought predictability on the NHP, we use the Ocean Land Atmospheric Model (OLAM). OLAM is characterized by a dynamic core with a global geodesic grid with hexagonal (and variably refined) mesh cells and a finite volume discretization of the full compressible Navier Stokes equations, a cut-grid cell method for topography (that reduces error in computational gradient computation and anomalous vertical dispersion). Our hypothesis is that wet conditions will drive OLAM's simulations of precipitation to wetter conditions affecting both flood forecast and drought forecast. To test this hypothesis we simulate precipitation during identified historical flood events followed by drought events in the NHP (i.e. 2011-2012 years). We initialized OLAM with CFS-data 1-10 days previous to a flooding event (as initial conditions) to explore (1) short-term and high-resolution and (2) long-term and coarse-resolution simulations of flood and drought events, respectively. While floods are assessed during a maximum of 15-days refined-mesh simulations, drought is evaluated during the following 15 months. Simulated precipitation will be compared with the Sub-continental Observation Dataset, a gridded 1/16th degree resolution data obtained from climatological stations in Canada, US, and

  4. Hydrometeorological extremes at the Veselí nad Moravou estate (Czech Republic) in the period 1794-1850 derived from documentary evidence of the economic character

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2010-05-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes influenced always human activities (agriculture, forestry, water management) and caused losses of human lives and great material damage. Systematic meteorological and hydrological observations in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. Such direct and indirect information about hydrometeorological extremes is included in documentary evidence (e.g. chronicles, memoirs, diaries, early visual weather observations, newspapers, economic sources etc.). Documentary evidence of economic character belongs to the most important sources, especially documents related to taxation records. Damage to agricultural crops on the fields or damage to hay on meadows due to the hydrological and meteorological phenomena has been a good reason for the abatement of tax duty. Based on the official correspondence of the estate of Veselí nad Moravou (southern Moravia), archival information about taxation from the Moravian Land Archives in Brno was excerpted. Based on it, 46 hydrometeorological extremes which occurred between the years 1794 and 1850 were selected and further analysed. Because of fields and meadows of the above estate were located along the Morava River, reports of damage due to floods were the most frequent, followed by damage due to torrential rains and hailstorms.

  5. Integrating Local Experiential and Hydrometeorological Data to Understand Knowledge Uncertainties and to Build Resilience to Flooding in Two Puerto Rican Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, M.; Nytch, C. J.; Branoff, B.

    2016-12-01

    Socio-hydrological studies that explore feedbacks between social and biophysical processes related to flood risk can help managers identify strategies that increase a community's freshwater security. However, knowledge uncertainty due to coarse spatio-temporal coverage of hydrological monitoring data, missing riverine discharge and precipitation records, assumptions of flood risk models, and effects of urbanization, can limit the ability of these studies to isolate hydrological responses to social drivers of flooding and a changing climate. Local experiential knowledge can provide much needed information about 1) actual flood spatio-temporal patterns, 2) human impacts and perceptions of flood events, and 3) mechanisms to validate flood risk studies and understand key social elements of the system. We addressed these knowledge gaps by comparing the location and timing of flood events described in resident interviews and resident drawn maps (total = 97) from two San Juan communities with NOAA and USGS precipitation and riverine discharge data archives, and FEMA flood maps. Analyses of five focal flood events revealed 1) riverine monitoring data failed to record a major flood event caused by localized blockage of the river, 2) residents did not mention multiple extreme riverine discharge events, 3) resident and FEMA flood maps matched closely but resident maps provided finer spatial information about frequency of flooding, and 4) only a small percentage of residents remembered the dates of flood events. Local knowledge provided valuable social data about flood impacts on human economic and physical/psychological wellbeing, perceptions about factors causing flooding, and what residents use as sources of flood information. A simple mechanism or tool for residents to record their flood experiences in real-time will address the uncertainties in local knowledge and improve social memory. The integration of local experiential knowledge with simulated and empirical hydro-meteorological

  6. Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-11-01

    SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

  7. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.

    2012-06-01

    It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR). Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS) networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data. Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps. This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in decision support systems and Civil

  8. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bedrina

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR. Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data.

    Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps.

    This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in

  9. Dynamic regulation of genome-wide pre-mRNA splicing and stress tolerance by the Sm-like protein LSm5 in Arabidopsis

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Peng

    2014-01-07

    Background: Sm-like proteins are highly conserved proteins that form the core of the U6 ribonucleoprotein and function in several mRNA metabolism processes, including pre-mRNA splicing. Despite their wide occurrence in all eukaryotes, little is known about the roles of Sm-like proteins in the regulation of splicing.Results: Here, through comprehensive transcriptome analyses, we demonstrate that depletion of the Arabidopsis supersensitive to abscisic acid and drought 1 gene (SAD1), which encodes Sm-like protein 5 (LSm5), promotes an inaccurate selection of splice sites that leads to a genome-wide increase in alternative splicing. In contrast, overexpression of SAD1 strengthens the precision of splice-site recognition and globally inhibits alternative splicing. Further, SAD1 modulates the splicing of stress-responsive genes, particularly under salt-stress conditions. Finally, we find that overexpression of SAD1 in Arabidopsis improves salt tolerance in transgenic plants, which correlates with an increase in splicing accuracy and efficiency for stress-responsive genes.Conclusions: We conclude that SAD1 dynamically controls splicing efficiency and splice-site recognition in Arabidopsis, and propose that this may contribute to SAD1-mediated stress tolerance through the metabolism of transcripts expressed from stress-responsive genes. Our study not only provides novel insights into the function of Sm-like proteins in splicing, but also uncovers new means to improve splicing efficiency and to enhance stress tolerance in a higher eukaryote. 2014 Cui et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  10. Effects of Seasonal Land Surface Conditions on Hydrometeorological Dynamics in South-western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-21

    rain gauges to measure precipitation , and 1 internal mini-flume to measure runoff . 9 Fig. 8. Processed fluxes measured at the two eddy...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Arid and semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface...semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface conditions, including soil moisture

  11. Trend Analysis of Hydro-meteorological variables in the coastal area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    1Department of Water Resources & Environmental Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin ... global climate change should be regarded as one of ... attributed to rural-urban migration which accounts ..... Modeling Global Warming Impact on.

  12. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) in the period 1751-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes always influenced human activities and caused great material damage or even loss of human lives. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. In this study, written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900. The taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, and the impacts on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about

  13. Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

    2018-04-01

    The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It

  14. Modeling detailed hydro-meteorological surfaces and runoff response in large diverse watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, J.; Kienzle, S.W.; MacDonald, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The derivation of representative spatial data in diverse environments poses a significant challenge to the modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydroclimate dataset for diverse watersheds using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope, aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al., 2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil water storage and runoff from the basin. Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. In further work we will apply spatial hydro-climatic surfaces from the SimGrid model to assess the hydrologic response to environmental change for watersheds in Canada and beyond. (author)

  15. ISTSOS, SENSOR OBSERVATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: A REAL CASE APPLICATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR FLOOD PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cannata

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available istSOS (Istituto scienze della Terra Sensor Observation Service is an implementation of the Sensor Observation Service standard from Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC. The development of istSOS started in 2009 in order to provide a simple implementation of the Sensor Observation Service (SOS standard for the management, provision and integration of hydro-meteorological data collected in Canton Ticino (Southern Switzerland. istSOS is entirely written in Python and is based on reliable open source software like PostgreSQL/PostGIS and Apache/mod_wsgi. The authors during this presentation want to illustrate the latest software enhancements together with a real case in a production environment. Latest software enhancement includes the development of a RESTful service and of a Web-based graphical user interface that allows hydrologists a better interaction with measurements. This includes the ability of new services creation, addition of new sensors and relative metadata, visualization and manipulation of stored observations, registration of new measures and setting of system properties like observable properties and data quality codes. The study will show a real case application of the system for the provision of data to interregional partners and to a hydrological model for lake level forecasting and flooding hazard assessment. The hydrological model uses a combination of WPS (Web Processing Service and SOS for the generation of model input data. This system is linked with a dedicated geo-portal used by the civil protection for the management, alert and protection of population and assets of the Locarno area (Verbano Lake flooding. Practical considerations and technical issues will be presented and discussed.

  16. Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Benoit

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available During the Special Observation Period (SOP, 7 September–15 November, 1999 of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP, the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community Model (MC2 was run in real time at a horizontal resolution of 3 km on a computational domain of 350☓300☓50 grid points, covering the whole of the Alpine region. The WATFLOOD model was passively coupled to the MC2; the former is an integrated set of computer programs to forecast flood flows, using all available data, for catchments with response times ranging from one hour to several weeks. The unique aspect of this contribution is the operational application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain. An overview of the system performance from the hydrometeorological aspect is presented, mostly for the real-time results, but also from subsequent analyses. A streamflow validation of the precipitation is included for large basins covering upper parts of the Rhine and the Rhone, and parts of the Po and of the Danube. In general, the MC2/WATFLOOD model underestimated the total runoff because of the under-prediction of precipitation by MC2 during the MAP SOP. After the field experiment, a coding error in the cloud microphysics scheme of MC2 explains this underestimation to a large extent. A sensitivity study revealed that the simulated flows reproduce the major features of the observed flow record for most of the flow stations. The experiment was considered successful because two out of three possible flood events in the Swiss-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked to the hydrological model and no flow events were missed. This study has demonstrated that a flow forecast from a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model can serve as a useful first alert and quantitative forecast. Keywords: mesoscale atmospheric model, hydrological model, flood forecasting, Alps

  17. Assessing hydrometeorological impacts with terrestrial and aerial Lidar data in Monterrey, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yepez Rincon, F.; Lozano Garcia, D.; Vela Coiffier, P.; Rivera Rivera, L.

    2013-10-01

    Light Detection Ranging (Lidar) is an efficient tool to gather points reflected from a terrain and store them in a xyz coordinate system, allowing the generation of 3D data sets to manage geoinformation. Translation of these coordinates, from an arbitrary system into a geographical base, makes data feasible and useful to calculate volumes and define topographic characteristics at different scales. Lidar technological advancement in topographic mapping enables the generation of highly accurate and densely sampled elevation models, which are in high demand by many industries like construction, mining and forestry. This study merges terrestrial and aerial Lidar data to evaluate the effectiveness of these tools assessing volumetric changes after a hurricane event of riverbeds and scour bridges The resulted information could be an optimal approach to improve hydrological and hydraulic models, to aid authorities in proper to decision making in construction, urban planning, and homeland security.

  18. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  19. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  20. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

  1. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts, as derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, AD 1751-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2011-12-01

    Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period AD 1751-1900. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  2. EPS composition and calcification potential of tufa-dominating cyanobacteria investigated by Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM) and Laser Scanning Microscopy (LSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zippel, Barbara; Dynes, James J.; Obst, Martin; Lawrence, John R.; Neu, Thomas R.

    2010-05-01

    Tufa deposits in freshwater habitats are the result of calcium carbonate precipitation within interfacial microbial ecosystems. Calcite precipitation is influenced by the saturation index and the occurrence of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) which are produced by a variety of microorganisms. In theory, the first important step of biologically induced calcification processes is the adsorption of calcium ions by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by cyanobacteria. In the present study we take advantage of Laser Scanning Microscopy (LSM) and combine it with Synchrotron imaging using Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM). STXM represents a technique that allows simultaneous analysis of inorganic and organic constituents as a scale of 50 nm. By means of STXM it is possible to differentiate between calcium carbonate phases at the Ca L-edge. Furthermore, STXM has also been used at the C K-edge to map the major biomolecules (proteins, lipids, and polysaccharides). The purpose of this study is to find out if there are differences in calcium adsorption depending on specific composition of the EPS produced by filamentous cyanobacteria isolated from a German hard water creek (Westerhöfer Bach, Harz Mountains). The goal was to elucidate the potential of biofilms constituents, including microbial cell surfaces as well as extracellular polymeric substances, in triggering the formation of calcium carbonate in tufa systems. For this purpose three filamentous cyanobacteria (Pseudanabaena sp., Leptolyngbya sp. and Nostoc sp.) were cultivated in creek-adapted as well as standard media (BG11) on polycarbonate slides. In situ EPS composition was detected by means of fluorescence lectin-binding approach (FLBA) using 23 commercially available lectins with different specificities for mono- and disaccharides and amino sugars. For CaCO3 nucleation experiments cyanobacterial biofilms grown on polycarbonate slides were deposited in NaHCO3/CaCl2 solutions

  3. A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and

  4. Effects of high spatial and temporal resolution Earth observations on simulated hydrometeorological variables in a cropland (southwestern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Etchanchu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural landscapes are often constituted by a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution is dependent on specific crop rotation patterns and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity affects surface hydrometeorological processes and must be taken into account in simulations of land surface and distributed hydrological models. The Sentinel-2 mission allows for the monitoring of land cover and vegetation dynamics at unprecedented spatial resolutions and revisit frequencies (20 m and 5 days, respectively that are fully compatible with such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Here, we evaluate the impact of Sentinel-2-like remote sensing data on the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes via the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA land surface model included in the EXternalized SURface (SURFEX modeling platform. The study focuses on the effect of the leaf area index (LAI spatial and temporal variability on these fluxes. We compare the use of the LAI climatology from ECOCLIMAP-II, used by default in SURFEX-ISBA, and time series of LAI derived from the high-resolution Formosat-2 satellite data (8 m. The study area is an agricultural zone in southwestern France covering 576 km2 (24 km  ×  24 km. An innovative plot-scale approach is used, in which each computational unit has a homogeneous vegetation type. Evaluation of the simulations quality is done by comparing model outputs with in situ eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux (LE. Our results show that the use of LAI derived from high-resolution remote sensing significantly improves simulated evapotranspiration with respect to ECOCLIMAP-II, especially when the surface is covered with summer crops. The comparison with in situ measurements shows an improvement of roughly 0.3 in the correlation coefficient and a decrease of around 30 % of the root mean square error (RMSE in the simulated evapotranspiration. This

  5. A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons

  6. Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    (-0.6°C/100m). The streamflow ensembles are post-processed to improve sharpness and generate calibrated forecasts. The skill of combinations of pre- and post-processed hydro-meteorological ensembles are further analyzed focusing on high streamflow and floods.

  7. Pushing Boreal Headwaters: Responses of Dissolved Organic Carbon to Increased Hydro-Meteorological Forcing by Forest Harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schelker, J.; Grabs, T. J.; Bishop, K. H.; Laudon, H.

    2012-12-01

    Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in stream water show large variations as a response to disturbances such as forestry operations. We used a paired catchment experiment in northern Sweden which shows well quantified increases of DOC concentrations and C-exports as a result of forest harvesting. To identify the drivers of these increases, a physically-based process model (Riparian Flow Integration Model, RIM) was used to inversely simulate the DOC availability in the peat-rich riparian soils of the catchments. DOC availability in soils followed a seasonal signal paralleling the seasonality of soil-temperatures (min: February; max: August) during 2005-2011. Further, high-frequency event sampling of DOC during spring and summer seasons of 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively, revealed that event size acted as a secondary control of DOC in streams: Spring snowmelt events (as well as one major event in 2009) showed clockwise hysteresis, whereas minor runoff episodes during summer (when DOC availability in soils was highest) were characterized by a counterclockwise behavior. The higher hydro-meteorological forcing consisting of increases of soil temperature and soil moisture after the forest removal governed additional increases in DOC availability in soils. The higher DOC concentrations observed in streams after forest harvesting can therefore be ascribed to i) the increased climatic forcing comprising higher water flows through riparian soils, ii) increased soil temperatures and soil moisture, respectively, favoring an increased production of DOC, and iii) additional variation by event size. Overall these results underline the large impact of forestry operations on stream water quality as well as DOC exports leaving managed boreal forests. Simulated and measured soil water TOC concentration profiles within the three Balsjö catchments (CC-4 = clear-cut with 67% harvest; NO-5 = 35% harvest; NR-7 = northern reference). The simulated curves represent the

  8. Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: application to a medium size basin of Mediterranean Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amengual, A.; Romero, R.; Vich, M.; Alonso, S.

    2009-06-01

    The improvement of the short- and mid-range numerical runoff forecasts over the flood-prone Spanish Mediterranean area is a challenging issue. This work analyses four intense precipitation events which produced floods of different magnitude over the Llobregat river basin, a medium size catchment located in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain. One of them was a devasting flash flood - known as the "Montserrat" event - which produced 5 fatalities and material losses estimated at about 65 million euros. The characterization of the Llobregat basin's hydrological response to these floods is first assessed by using rain-gauge data and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) runoff model. In second place, the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) is nested within the ECMWF large-scale forecast fields in a set of 54 h period simulations to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for each hydrometeorological episode. The hydrological model is forced with these QPFs to evaluate the reliability of the resulting discharge forecasts, while an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on perturbed atmospheric initial and boundary conditions has been designed to test the value of a probabilistic strategy versus the previous deterministic approach. Specifically, a Potential Vorticity (PV) Inversion technique has been used to perturb the MM5 model initial and boundary states (i.e. ECMWF forecast fields). For that purpose, a PV error climatology has been previously derived in order to introduce realistic PV perturbations in the EPS. Results show the benefits of using a probabilistic approach in those cases where the deterministic QPF presents significant deficiencies over the Llobregat river basin in terms of the rainfall amounts, timing and localization. These deficiences in precipitation fields have a major impact on flood forecasts. Our ensemble strategy has been found useful to reduce the

  9. Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change : An example from the Italian alps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc

    2015-01-01

    Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario

  10. Evaluation of regional-scale water level simulations using various river routing schemes within a hydrometeorological modelling framework for the preparation of the SWOT mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häfliger, V.; Martin, E.; Boone, A. A.; Habets, F.; David, C. H.; Garambois, P. A.; Roux, H.; Ricci, S. M.; Thévenin, A.; Berthon, L.; Biancamaria, S.

    2014-12-01

    The ability of a regional hydrometeorological model to simulate water depth is assessed in order to prepare for the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) mission that will observe free surface water elevations for rivers having a width larger than 50/100 m. The Garonne river (56 000 km2, in south-western France) has been selected owing to the availability of operational gauges, and the fact that different modeling platforms, the hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU and several fine scale hydraulic models, have been extensively evaluated over two reaches of the river. Several routing schemes, ranging from the simple Muskingum method to time-variable parameter kinematic and diffusive waves schemes with time varying parameters, are tested using predetermined hydraulic parameters. The results show that the variable flow velocity scheme is advantageous for discharge computations when compared to the original Muskingum routing method. Additionally, comparisons between water level computations and in situ observations led to root mean square errors of 50-60 cm for the improved Muskingum method and 40-50 cm for the kinematic-diffusive wave method, in the downstream Garonne river. The error is larger than the anticipated SWOT resolution, showing the potential of the mission to improve knowledge of the continental water cycle. Discharge computations are also shown to be comparable to those obtained with high-resolution hydraulic models over two reaches. However, due to the high variability of river parameters (e.g. slope and river width), a robust averaging method is needed to compare the hydraulic model outputs and the regional model. Sensitivity tests are finally performed in order to have a better understanding of the mechanisms which control the key hydrological processes. The results give valuable information about the linearity, Gaussianity and symetry of the model, in order to prepare the assimilation of river heights in the model.

  11. Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donnelly, Chantal; Greuell, Wouter; Andersson, Jafet; Gerten, Dieter; Pisacane, Giovanna; Roudier, Philippe; Ludwig, Fulco

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe. Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate

  12. Towards a Stochastic Predictive Understanding of Ecosystem Functioning and Resilience to Environmental Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, C.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem processes respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Process-based modeling of ecosystem functioning is therefore challenging, especially when long-term predictions are envisioned. Here we analyze the statistical properties of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability, i.e., the variability of ecosystem process related to vegetation carbon dynamics, from hourly to decadal timescales. 23 extra-tropical forest sites, covering different climatic zones and vegetation characteristics, are examined. Micrometeorological and reanalysis data of precipitation, air temperature, shortwave radiation and vapor pressure deficit are used to describe hydrometeorological variability. Ecosystem variability is quantified using long-term eddy covariance flux data of hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between land surface and atmosphere, monthly remote sensing vegetation indices, annual tree-ring widths and above-ground biomass increment estimates. We find that across sites and timescales ecosystem variability is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope that describes the range of variability of the available resources, i.e., water and energy. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. We derive an analytical model, combining deterministic harmonics and stochastic processes, that represents major mechanisms and uncertainties and mimics the observed pattern of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. This stochastic framework offers a parsimonious and mathematically tractable approach for modelling ecosystem functioning and for understanding its response and resilience to environmental changes. Furthermore, this framework reflects well the observed ecological memory, an inherent property of ecosystem functioning that is currently not

  13. Integrating data and mashup concepts in Hydro-Meteorological Research: the torrential rainfall event in Genoa (4th November 2011) case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.; Rebora, N.; Laiosa, D.

    2012-04-01

    One of the critical issues in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR) is a better exploitation of data archives according to a multidisciplinary perspective. Different Earth science databases offer a huge amount of observational data, which often need to be assembled, processed, combined accordingly HM scientists needs. The cooperation between scientists active in HMR and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is essential in the development of innovative tools and applications for manipulating, aggregating and re-arranging heterogeneous information in flexible way. In this paper it is described an application devoted to the collection and integration of HM datasets, originated by public or private sources, freely exposed via Web services API. This application uses the mashup, recently become very popular in many fields, (Chow S.-W., 2007) technology concepts. Such methodology means combination of data and/or programs published by external online sources into an integrated experience. Mashup seems to be a promising methodology to respond to the multiple data-related activities into which HM researchers are daily involved (e.g. finding and retrieving high volume data; learning formats and developing readers; extracting parameters; performing filtering and mask; developing analysis and visualization tools). The specific case study of the recent extreme rainfall event, occurred over Genoa in Italy on the 4th November 2011 is shown through the integration of semi-professional weather observational networks as free available data source in addition to official weather networks.

  14. Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

  15. Effects of Groundwater Dynamics on Hydrometeorological Conditions over South America: Analysis of Offline NoahMP and Fully-coupled WRF-NoahMP Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Agudelo, J. A.; Dominguez, F.; Miguez-Macho, G.

    2014-12-01

    Renalysis data suggests that nearly 20% of the atmospheric moisture over the La Plata basin comes from Amazonian Evapotranspiration (ET). However, these estimates of ET are model dependent. Simulations using land-surface models (LSMs) in off-line mode (i.e. with prescribed atmospheric forcing) have shown that Amazonian ET depends on the groundwater dynamics. In this study we use the NoahMP LSM in off-line mode and the coupled system WRF-NoahMP to assess the role of groundwater on South American ET. In particular, we study the role of the groundwater in sustaining ET during the dry season in the southern Amazon and the La Plata basin. We compare simulations that do not account for the groundwater reservoir (free drainage approach) with simulations that include the Miguez-Macho and Fan parameterization to represent the groundwater storage, its lateral flow, and its interaction with the unsaturated zone. The off-line simulations show the effects associated solely with groundwater dynamics (as opposed to coupled land-atmosphere processes), while the coupled simulations provide information about the regulation and/or response from the atmosphere. Preliminary results from the coupled system suggest that the largest effects of the groundwater on ET are observed during the austral dry season. ET is larger over regions of Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina when groundwater is included, due to the existence of a relatively shallow water table over these regions, which via upward capillary fluxes reduces drainage during the rainy season and increases soil moisture availability in the dry season. These differences in the simulated ET could have an impact on the estimates of the transport of atmospheric moisture to La Plata basin.

  16. Activities of Hydrometeorologic Institute of Serbia - Belgrade, during the case of radioactive pollution of environment caused by the accident of nuclear power plant 'Chernobyl' in 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, Dj.

    2002-01-01

    The programme of 'Systematic testing of water quality' performed by Hydrometeorologic Institute of Serbia - Belgrade includes the measurement of total beta radioactivity on 33 sampling points. The measurement of total beta radioactivity is performed with instrument 'Lola - 4' produced by 'Institute for Nuclear Science - Vinca'. During the accident of Nuclear Power Plant 'Chernobyl' in 1986 arose the need to investigate the influence of this case on the environment of Belgrade and Serbia. In that respect a series of measurement of total beta radioactivity of rain water, surface waters, tap water and air were performed. Those measurements showed an increase of radioactivity of river waters. River Sava had radioactivity of 3,4 Bq/l (0,08 Bq/l in 1 9850 and river Danube 3-5 Bq/l (0,09 Bq/l in 1 985). High values of radioactivity were measured in the waters of highland accumulation lakes over 30 Bq/l. Rain water showed it's maximum of 52 Bq/l on 1 st and 2nd May l986 and it drooped to 0,3 Bq/l until 5th of June. Tap water showed it's maximum of 35,2 Bq/l on 12th May and it was reduced to 1 ,0 Bq/l on 2nd of June. Radioactivity of air showed it's maximum of 2,64 Bq/m 3 in the period 1 -3 May and in the period 5-8 May, 1 . - 1 ,57 Bq/m 3 . Measurement of river water radioactivity on 33 regular sampling points at the end of the year 1 986 showed that was no increase in comparison with the same measurements in 1 985. All mentioned results of the radioactivity of river waters and the waters of highland accumulations used to fall into ranges predicted by the model of the radioactive pollution distribution developed on the Imperial College -London. (author)

  17. The Operational Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Prediction System at Meteo-France and its representation interface for the French Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI) : description and undergoing developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousset-Regimbeau, F.; Martin, E.; Thirel, G.; Habets, F.; Coustau, M.; Roquelaure, S.; De Saint Aubin, C.; Ardilouze, C.

    2012-04-01

    The coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) is developed at Meteo-France for many years. This fully distributed catchment model is used in a pre-operational mode since 2005 for producing mid-range ensemble streamflow forecasts based on the 51-member 10-day ECMWF EPS. Improvements have been made during the past few years.. First, a statistical adaptation has been performed to improve the meteorological ensemble predictions from the ECMWF. It has been developped over a 3-year archive, and assessed over a 1-year period. Its impact on the performance of the streamflow forecasts has been calculated over 8 months of predictions. Then, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented in order to improve the initial states of these ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has been developped in the framework of a Phd thesis, and it is now evaluated in real-time conditions. Moreover, an improvement of the physics of the ISBA model (the exponential profile of the hydraulic conductivity in the soil) was implemented. Finally, this system provides ensemble 10-day streamflow prediction to the French National Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI). A collaboration between Meteo-France and SCHAPI led to the development of a new website. This website shows the streamflow predictions for about 200 selected river stations over France (selected regarding their interest for flood warning) , as well as alerts for high flows (two levels of high flows corresponding to the levels of risk of the French flood warning system). It aims at providing to the French hydrological forecaters a real-time tool for mid-range flood awareness.

  18. International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Jubach

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

  19. UC Irvine CHRS Real-time Global Satellite Precipitation Monitoring System (G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer) for Hydrometeorological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K. L.; Gao, X.; Imam, B.; Nguyen, P.; Braithwaite, D.; Logan, W. S.; Mishra, A.

    2015-12-01

    The G-WADI Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) GeoServer has been successfully developed by the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California Irvine in collaboration with the UNESCO's International Hydrological Programme (IHP) and a number of its international centers. The system employs state-of-the-art technologies in remote sensing and artificial intelligence to estimate precipitation globally from satellite imagery in real-time and high spatiotemporal resolution (4km, hourly). It offers graphical tools and data service to help the user in emergency planning and management for natural disasters related to hydrological processes. The G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer has been upgraded with new user-friendly functionalities. The precipitation data generated by the GeoServer is disseminated to the user community through support provided by ICIWaRM (The International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management), UNESCO and UC Irvine. Recently a number of new applications for mobile devices have been developed by our students. The RainMapper has been available on App Store and Google Play for the real-time PERSIANN-CCS observations. A global crowd sourced rainfall reporting system named iRain has also been developed to engage the public globally to provide qualitative information about real-time precipitation in their location which will be useful in improving the quality of the PERSIANN-CCS data. A number of recent examples of the application and use of the G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer information will also be presented.

  20. Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Bringing Science and Decision-Makers Together to Explore Use of Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Support Future Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.

  1. The hydrometeorological implications of zoning laws: Can land use regulations of urban density and sprawl improve a city's resilience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Zeid, E.; Ryu, Y. H.; Smith, J. A.; Newburn, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    The intensification of heat waves and of the hydrological cycle due to global climate change pose particularly high risks to urban residents. Cities are already hotter than their surroundings due to the urban heat island effect and are known to result in local intensification of rainfall and flooding due to their coupled impacts on the surface and the lower atmosphere. These interacting local and global changes can adversely affect the health and well being of urban residents, and city administrators are increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to the potential disruptions though various infrastructure and preparedness programs. However, as cities worldwide continue to expand, a key decision is how to manage that urban sprawl and regulate its spatial features to aid in the mitigation and adaptation effort. This study assesses whether alternative zoning regulations that modify the density and extent of a metropolitan region, but have a minimal impact on total population and demographic growth, have an appreciable impact on its response to extreme weather events, and as such, whether they can be used to increase urban resilience. We consider Baltimore (the city and its surrounding suburbs), which in 1967 adopted one of the first urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in the United States, as our test case. Departing from the urban extent circa 1900, we create alternative land use patterns that, compared to the actual current land use baseline, would have resulted from drastically different policy scenarios and approaches to zoning that the city would have undertaken. We consider various alternatives where the city is smaller and denser, due to stricter regulation, versus larger and less dense than the actual baseline, while maintaining the same total population. Our findings indicate that lower densities have significant benefits: compared to the current landscape and to denser patterns, they reduce both extreme temperatures during heat waves and spatio-temporal rainfall

  2. LSM Microelectrodes: Kinetics and Surface Composition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Karin Vels; Norrman, Kion; Jacobsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry were performed on electrodes with diameters of 20–100 μm in oxygen, air and nitrogen both at open circuit voltage and at anodic and cathodic polarization. In situ conductance mapping, ex situ surface analysis by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry, and scanning...

  3. Hydrometeorological daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) for the Western Mountain Aquifer, Israel: Model application and effects of temporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffer, N. A.; Dafny, E.; Gvirtzman, H.; Navon, S.; Frumkin, A.; Morin, E.

    2010-05-01

    Recharge is a critical issue for water management. Recharge assessment and the factors affecting recharge are of scientific and practical importance. The purpose of this study was to develop a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) on the basis of a water balance principle with input from conventional and generally available precipitation and evaporation data and demonstrate the application of this model to recharge estimation in the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel. The WMA (area 13,000 km2) is a karst aquifer that supplies 360-400 Mm3 yr-1 of freshwater, which constitutes 20% of Israel's freshwater and is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. DREAM was linked to a groundwater flow model (FEFLOW) to simulate monthly hydraulic heads and spring flows. The models were calibrated for 1987-2002 and validated for 2003-2007, yielding high agreement between calculated and measured values (R2 = 0.95; relative root-mean-square error = 4.8%; relative bias = 1.04). DREAM allows insights into the effect of intra-annual precipitation distribution factors on recharge. Although annual precipitation amount explains ˜70% of the variability in simulated recharge, analyses with DREAM indicate that the rainy season length is an important factor controlling recharge. Years with similar annual precipitation produce different recharge values as a result of temporal distribution throughout the rainy season. An experiment with a synthetic data set exhibits similar results, explaining ˜90% of the recharge variability. DREAM represents significant improvement over previous recharge estimation techniques in this region by providing near-real-time recharge estimates that can be used to predict the impact of climate variability on groundwater resources at high temporal and spatial resolution.

  4. Human impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands derived from documentary sources in the 18th-19th centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    The extent of damage caused by hydrometeorological events or extremes (HME) has risen up in the entire world in the last few years. Especially the floods, flash floods, torrential rains and hailstorms are the most typical and one of the most frequent kind of natural disasters in the central Europe. Catastrophes are a part of human history and people were forced to cope with their consequences (e. g. material damage, economical losses, impacts on agriculture and society or losses of human lives). This paper analyses the human impacts of HME in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands (central part of the Czech Republic) on the basis of documentary sources from the 18th-19th centuries. The paper presents various negative impacts of natural disasters on lives and property and subsequent inconveniences of Czech peasants. The preserved archival documents of estates or domains became the primary sources of data (e. g. taxation reliefs, damaged records, reports of afflicted farmers, administrative correspondence etc.). Particularly taxation reliefs relate to taxation system in the Czech lands during the 17th-19th centuries allowing to farmers to ask for tax alleviation when their crops were significantly damaged by any HME. These archival documents are a highly valuable source for the study of human impacts of natural disasters. Devastating consequences of these extremes affected individual farmers much more than the aristocracy. Floods caused inundations of farmer's fields, meadows, houses and farm buildings, washed away the arable land with crops, caused losses of cattle, clogged the land with gravel and mud and destroyed roads, bridges or agricultural equipment. Afflicted fields became worthless and it took them many years to become became fertile again. Crop was also damaged by hailstorms, droughts or late/early frosts. All these events led to lack of food and seeds in the following year and it meant the decrease of living standard, misery and poverty of farmers. Acquired

  5. ANALYSIS OF NIGERIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    Tests on time homogeneity, showed that the annual rainfall ... lognormal distribution should be adopted for predictions of annual rainfall at Port Harcourt and .... factors for normal probability distribution, ... functions of adjusted skewness.

  6. Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

    2012-01-01

    Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

  7. Potential and Challenges of Low-Cost and High-Tech Crowd-sensing Approaches in Hydrometeorology for Better Water Resources Management - Insights and Learnings from the Global iMoMo Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegfried, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    In developing and transition countries and despite significant global investments in hydrometeorology, data on water remain scarce/fragmented. One key reason is that traditional sensing in hydrology, hydro- and agro-meteorology does not scale because of high investment costs and difficult maintenance of traditional technology, esp. in remote and/or poor regions. Even where there are data, these are often difficult to access and interpret for local stakeholders due outdated data transmission and the lack of access to modern tools for data management/analysis/synthesis and exchange. In recent years, there have been substantial technology developments in environmental sensing and mobile communication technology that enable the application and deployment of affordable and scalable high-tech solutions for better water monitoring at different scales (local to transboundary levels). The WMO is acknowledging and promoting the potential for application of these technologies. One key aspect is to anchor these technologies in local communities that perform crowd-sensing tasks on a regular basis. The merits as well as challenges (including introduction of human factor, less accuracy as compared to traditional sensing, intermittency of data, …) of such approaches will be discussed in the context of the WMO-led Global iMoMo Initiative and its numerous activities on the ground in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as in Central Asia.

  8. The Rofental: a high Alpine research basin (1890–3770 m a.s.l. in the Ötztal Alps (Austria with over 150 years of hydrometeorological and glaciological observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Strasser

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of glaciological, meteorological, hydrological and laser scanning recordings at research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria. The data sets span a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique time series of rich high-altitude mountain observations. Their collection was originally initiated to support scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Vernagtferner. Annual mass balance, glacier front variation, flow velocities and photographic records of the status of these glaciers were recorded. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables were undertaken, and over time a number of autonomous weather stations and runoff gauges were brought into operation; the available data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation, and river water levels. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial laser scans is available, along with associated digital surface models. In 2016 a permanent terrestrial laser scanner was installed on Im hintern Eis (3244 m a.s.l. to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation in the Rofental area enable combined research of cryospheric, atmospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the-art glacier mass balance and hydroclimatological models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework promote their site in several international research initiatives. In INARCH (International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, http://words.usask.ca/inarch, all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the

  9. The Rofental: a high Alpine research basin (1890-3770 m a.s.l.) in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) with over 150 years of hydrometeorological and glaciological observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Braun, Ludwig; Escher-Vetter, Heidi; Juen, Irmgard; Kuhn, Michael; Maussion, Fabien; Mayer, Christoph; Nicholson, Lindsey; Niedertscheider, Klaus; Sailer, Rudolf; Stötter, Johann; Weber, Markus; Kaser, Georg

    2018-01-01

    A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of glaciological, meteorological, hydrological and laser scanning recordings at research sites in the Rofental (1891-3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets span a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique time series of rich high-altitude mountain observations. Their collection was originally initiated to support scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Vernagtferner. Annual mass balance, glacier front variation, flow velocities and photographic records of the status of these glaciers were recorded. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables were undertaken, and over time a number of autonomous weather stations and runoff gauges were brought into operation; the available data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation, and river water levels. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial) laser scans is available, along with associated digital surface models. In 2016 a permanent terrestrial laser scanner was installed on Im hintern Eis (3244 m a.s.l.) to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation in the Rofental area enable combined research of cryospheric, atmospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the-art glacier mass balance and hydroclimatological models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework promote their site in several international research initiatives. In INARCH (International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, http://words.usask.ca/inarch), all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the Creative Commons Attribution

  10. Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored

  11. Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

    2017-12-01

    Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

  12. Small farm dams: impact on river flows and sustainability in a context of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habets, F.; Philippe, E.; Martin, E.; David, C. H.; Leseur, F.

    2014-10-01

    The repetition of droughts in France has led to a growing demand for irrigation water and consequently to an increase in requests for the construction of small farm dams. Although such dams are small, their accumulation in a basin affects river flows, because the water collected in these small farm dams is used for irrigation and thus does not contribute to river flow. In order to gain more insight into their impact on the annual and monthly discharges, especially during dry years, a small farm dam model was built and connected to a hydrometeorological model. Several scenarios with different volume capacities, filling catchment sizes and filling periods were tested for such dams. The results were analysed in a small basin in western France, where the pressure for building such dams is high, and then extended to the entire country. It was found that, due to the hydrometeorological conditions (mainly low precipitation compared to other regions in France), the development of small farm dams in north-western France would result in greater decreases in river flows and less efficient filling of small farm dams than in other regions. Therefore, such dams might not be as efficient as expected in supplying water to farmers when needed. Moreover, the ability to fill small farm dams is projected to decrease in a context of climate change, despite the uncertainty on the evolution of precipitation, thus worsening the situation.

  13. Uncertainty analysis of hydro-meteorological forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Grythe, Karl Kristian; Gao, Yukun

    2010-01-01

    Masteroppgave i informasjons- og kommunikasjonsteknologi 2010 – Universitetet i Agder, Grimstad Meteorological and hydrological forecasts are very important to human’s life which concerns agriculture, industry, transport, etc. The Nordic hydropower industry use and develop hydrological forecasting models to make predictions of rivers steam flow. The quantity of incoming stream flow is important to the electricity production because excessive water in reservoir will cause flood ...

  14. Analysis of Nigerian Hydrometeorological Data | Dike | Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Missing records were determined by the mass curve analysis for rainfall and regression analysis for runoff involving runoff data at neighbouring site. Tests on time homogeneity, showed that the annual rainfall records at Port Harcourt, Enugu and Lokoja were stationary and random, the annual runoff records of River Niger at ...

  15. Doppler broadening measurements in FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, M.H.; Chrien, R.E.

    1989-01-01

    Measurements obtained in situ during field reversed configuration (FRC) formation show that the Doppler broadening ion temperature T CV is larger by a factor of two or more than the ion temperature T i derived from pressure balance and Thomson scattering. After a time comparable to an ion-ion equilibrium time, T CV and T i come into agreement with each other. An exception to this picture occurs in the lowest fill pressure condition (2 mtorr), for which T CV > T i is maintained throughout the FRC lifetime. Earlier Doppler broadening measurements in FRX-B and FRX-C also showed persistent, anomalously high T CV at low fill pressure. The initially high values of T CV are probably caused by convective motion generated by the radial implosion. The low fill pressure results suggest an enhanced ohmic power input to the carbon ions. 7 refs., 3 figs

  16. Box photosynthesis modeling results for WRF/CMAQ LSM

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Box Photosynthesis model simulations for latent heat and ozone at 6 different FLUXNET sites. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Ran, L., J....

  17. Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

    2015-04-01

    The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially

  18. Water Discharge and Sediment Load Changes in China: Change Patterns, Causes, and Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chong Jiang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this research, monthly hydrological and daily meteorological data were collected across China for the period 1956–2012. Modified Mann–Kendall tests, double mass curve analysis, and correlation statistics were performed to identify the long-term trends and interrelation of the hydrometeorological variables and to examine the influencing factors of streamflow and sediment. The results are as follows: (1 In the last 60 years, the streamflow in northern China has shown different decreasing trends. For the southern rivers, the streamflow presented severe fluctuations, but the declining trend was insignificant. For the streamflow in western China, an increasing trend was shown. (2 In the northern rivers, the streamflow was jointly controlled by the East Asian monsoon and westerlies. In the southern rivers, the runoff was mainly influenced by the Tibet–Qinghai monsoon, the South Asian monsoon, and westerlies. (3 Sediment loads in the LCRB (Lancang River Basin and YZRB (Yarlung Zangbo River Basin did not present significant change trends, although other rivers showed different degrees of gradual reduction, particularly in the 2000s. (4 Underlying surface and precipitation changes jointly influenced the streamflow in eastern rivers. The water consumption for industrial and residential purposes, soil and water conservation engineering, hydraulic engineering, and underlying surface changes induced by other factors were the main causes of streamflow and sediment reduction.

  19. Future PMP Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios and its Changes Cause Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.; Lee, J.; Okjeong, L.; Bogyeong, C.; Park, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    In this presentation, Korea's probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) which reflects all of the storm data until recently are calculated, and are compared to the existing PMPs which were calculated at 2000. In Korea, abnormal weather phenomena such as typhoon Rusa and Maemi, and the extreme rainfall event occurred on the east coast of the northern region, that can have a significant impact on the PMP estimation, have frequently happened since 2000. After selecting 240 major storm events from 1973 to 2012, new PMPs are proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2025, 4900, 10000 and 19600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. After estimating future PMPs using future rainfall and dew point temperature information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under climate change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. By separating the changes in PMPs under climate change into the changes caused by rainfall and dew point temperature, the relative impact of future rainfall and dew point temperature information under climate change on future PMPs is quantified. This research was supported by a grant 'Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change' [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

  20. Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiga Malek

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

  1. PMP Estimations at Sparsely Controlled Andinian Basins and Climate Change Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagos Zúñiga, M. A.; Vargas, X.

    2012-12-01

    Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation implies an extensive review of hydrometeorological data and understandig of precipitation formation processes. There exists different methodology processes that apply for their estimations and all of them require a good spatial and temporal representation of storms. The estimation of hydrometeorological PMP on sparsely controlled basins is a difficult task, specially if the studied area has an important orographic effect due to mountains and the mixed precipitation occurrence in the most several storms time period, the main task of this study is to propose and estimate PMP in a sparsely controlled basin, affected by abrupt topography and mixed hidrology basin; also analyzing statystic uncertainties estimations and possible climate changes effects in its estimation. In this study the PMP estimation under statistical and hydrometeorological aproaches (watershed-based and traditional depth area duration analysis) was done in a semi arid zone at Puclaro dam in north Chile. Due to the lack of good spatial meteorological representation at the study zone, we propose a methodology to consider the orographic effects of Los Andes due to orographic effects patterns based in a RCM PRECIS-DGF and annual isoyetal maps. Estimations were validated with precipitation patterns for given winters, considering snow route and rainfall gauges at the preferencial wind direction, finding good results. The estimations are also compared with the highest areal storms in USA, Australia, India and China and with frequency analysis in local rain gauge stations in order to decide about the most adequate approach for the study zone. Climate change projections were evaluated with ECHAM5 GCM model, due to its good quality representation in the seasonality and the magnitude of meteorological variables. Temperature projections, for 2040-2065 period, show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase of the

  2. Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

    2018-02-01

    Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of

  3. Forecasting summertime surface temperature and precipitation in the Mexico City metropolitan area: sensitivity of the WRF model to land cover changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Bravo, Clemente; Caetano, Ernesto; Magaña, Víctor

    2018-02-01

    Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented configuration (land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA)) of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.

  4. How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil Laanaia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of adaptation strategies of agriculture and forestry to climate change is conditioned by the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the vegetation cycle and of the associated uncertainties. Using the same generic Land Surface Model (LSM to simulate the response of various vegetation types is more straightforward than using several specialized crop and forestry models, as model implementation differences are difficult to assess. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of a LSM to address this issue. Using the SURFEX (“Surface Externalisée” modeling platform, we produced and analyzed 150-yr (1950–2100 simulations of the biomass of four vegetation types (rainfed straw cereals, rainfed grasslands, broadleaf and needleleaf forests and of the soil water content associated to each of these vegetation types over France. Statistical methods were used to quantify the impact of climate change on simulated phenological dates. The duration of soil moisture stress periods increases everywhere in France, especially for grasslands with, on average, an increase of 9 days per year in near-future (NF conditions and 36 days per year in distant-future (DF conditions. For all the vegetation types, leaf onset and the annual maximum LAI occur earlier. For straw cereals in the Languedoc-Provence-Corsica area, NF leaf onset occurs 18 days earlier and 37 days earlier in DF conditions, on average. On the other hand, local discrepancies are simulated for the senescence period (e.g. earlier in western and southern France for broadleaf forests, slightly later in mountainous areas of eastern France for both NF and DF. Changes in phenological dates are more uncertain in DF than in NF conditions in relation to differences in climate models, especially for forests. Finally, it is shown that while changes in leaf onset are mainly driven by air temperature, longer soil moisture stress periods trigger earlier leaf senescence

  5. Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-10-01

    Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974-2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963-2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km2) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963-2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km2) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or -31 km2) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr-1, and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km2). Over the time period 1963-2009, about 50 % of the 64 km2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.

  6. Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

    2016-04-01

    According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  7. Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

  8. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  9. Changing Families, Changing Workplaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2011-01-01

    American families and workplaces have both changed dramatically over the past half-century. Paid work by women has increased sharply, as has family instability. Education-related inequality in work hours and income has grown. These changes, says Suzanne Bianchi, pose differing work-life issues for parents at different points along the income…

  10. International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments: Conference summary and statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments was held in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, from May 22--25, 1995. Sponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the US Country Studies Program, and the directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Government, it was the first international conference focusing exclusively on adaptation to climate change. More than 100 people from 29 countries on five continents participated. The conference primarily addressed measures to anticipate the potential effects of climate change to minimize negative effects and take advantage of any positive effects. The focus was on what governments, institutions, and individuals can do to prepare for climate change. The conference dealt with two major topics: What adaptation options are most effective and efficient in anticipating climate change and what methods should be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation options. Brief summaries are given from the following sessions on agriculture; Water resources; coastal resources; ecosystems and forests; fisheries; human settlements; water and agriculture; and the panel session on international adaptation in national communications and other development plans and needs for technical assistance.

  11. Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2010-05-01

    Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help

  12. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  13. Changes in Average Annual Precipitation in Argentina’s Pampa Region and Their Possible Causes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Pérez

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Changes in annual rainfall in five sub-regions of the Argentine Pampa Region (Rolling, Central, Mesopotamian, Flooding and Southern were examined for the period 1941 to 2010 using data from representative locations in each sub-region. Dubious series were adjusted by means of a homogeneity test and changes in mean value were evaluated using a hydrometeorological time series segmentation method. In addition, an association was sought between shifts in mean annual rainfall and changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure systems, as measured by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI. The results indicate that the Western Pampas (Central and Southern are more vulnerable to abrupt changes in average annual rainfall than the Eastern Pampas (Mesopotamian, Rolling and Flooding. Their vulnerability is further increased by their having the lowest average rainfall. The AMO showed significant negative correlations with all sub-regions, while the PDO and SOI showed significant positive and negative correlations respectively with the Central, Flooding and Southern Pampa. The fact that the PDO and AMO are going through the phases of their cycles that tend to reduce rainfall in much of the Pampas helps explain the lower rainfall recorded in the Western Pampas sub-regions in recent years. This has had a significant impact on agriculture and the environment.

  14. Assessing the response of runoff to climate change and human activities for a typical basin in the Northern Taihang Mountain, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinfeng; Gao, Yanchuan; Wang, Sheng

    2018-04-01

    Climate change and human activities are the two main factors on runoff change. Quantifying the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff change is important for water resources planning and management. In this study, the variation trend and abrupt change point of hydro-meteorological factors during 1960-2012 were detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt change-point statistics. Then the runoff was simulated by SWAT model. The contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff change was calculated based on the SWAT model and the elasticity coefficient method. The results showed that in contrast to the increasing trend for annual temperature, the significant decreasing trends were detected for annual runoff and precipitation, with an abrupt change point in 1982. The simulated results of SWAT had good consistency with observed ones, and the values of R2 and E_{NS} all exceeded 0.75. The two methods used for assessing the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff reduction yielded consistent results. The contribution of climate change (precipitation reduction and temperature rise) was {˜ }37.5%, while the contribution of human activities (the increase of economic forest and built-up land, hydrologic projects) was {˜ }62.5%.

  15. Changing change detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Bundesen, Claus

    2009-01-01

    The change detection paradigm is a popular way of measuring visual short-term memory capacity. Using the paradigm, researchers have found evidence for a capacity of about four independent visual objects, confirming classic estimates that were based on the number of items that could be reported...

  16. Changing Times, Changing Roles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Stella

    1994-01-01

    Completion of the Vocational Preference Inventory by 97 British continuing educators showed their vocational interests were primarily creative and intellectual and least preferred activities were administration, marketing, and accounting. Because the latter are increasingly part of the job, conflicts and barriers to change could arise. (SK)

  17. The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2017-04-01

    Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

  18. Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin

    2017-01-01

    The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

  19. Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Dokou, Zoi; Karatzas, George P

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. LSM DAN GERAKAN ANTI KORUPSI : ANALISIS PERAN LSM DALAM MEMBANGUN KESADARAN ANTI KORUPSI DAN DALAM MEMERANGI TINDAK PIDANA KORUPSI DI KOTA SEMARANG

    OpenAIRE

    Puji Astuti

    2016-01-01

    Corruption in Indonesia still be a great challenges,  because  corruption  more extend, not only in national government, but also expand  in local government, mainly after  local election choose by people.  Almost local government should facing corruption that involved almost all institution, not only in legislative, excecutive, and judicative, but also private corporation. Thus research would describe corruption in Semarang City, and how the role of NGO,  mainly Pattiro and KP2KKN in combati...

  1. LSM DAN GERAKAN ANTI KORUPSI : ANALISIS PERAN LSM DALAM MEMBANGUN KESADARAN ANTI KORUPSI DAN DALAM MEMERANGI TINDAK PIDANA KORUPSI DI KOTA SEMARANG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puji Astuti

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Corruption in Indonesia still be a great challenges,  because  corruption  more extend, not only in national government, but also expand  in local government, mainly after  local election choose by people.  Almost local government should facing corruption that involved almost all institution, not only in legislative, excecutive, and judicative, but also private corporation. Thus research would describe corruption in Semarang City, and how the role of NGO,  mainly Pattiro and KP2KKN in combating corruption.  NGO have an important role both in educating of Anti-Corruption  and controlling the handle of corruption. The most goals of Education to the people  mainly how people being intolerance to corruption. Education program involving  other institution like KPK, ICW and other NGO with the same of vision in combating corruption. In other side, the role of NGO was cotrolling judicature process with Mass Media as a partner. Without Mass Media, NGO won’t be an effectiveness in combating corruption. Because  NGO still facing lack of resources in Human and financial as a force in combating corruption, so  making  a coorporation with University would be the best choices in the future, mainly in anti-corruption education.

  2. Lsm Dan Gerakan Anti Korupsi : Analisis Peran Lsm Dalam Membangun Kesadaran Anti Korupsi Dan Dalam Memerangi Tindak Pidana Korupsi Di Kota Semarang

    OpenAIRE

    Astuti, Puji

    2014-01-01

    Corruption in Indonesia still be a great challenges, because corruption more extend, not only in national government, but also expand in local government, mainly after local election choose by people. Almost local government should facing corruption that involved almost all institution, not only in legislative, excecutive, and judicative, but also private corporation. Thus research would describe corruption in Semarang City, and how the role of NGO, mainly Pattiro and KP2KKN in combati...

  3. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  4. Improvement in Quality of Life Questionnaire Measures (PCOSQ) in Obese Adolescent Females with PCOS treated with Lifestyle Changes and Oral Contraceptives, with or without Metformin

    OpenAIRE

    Harris-Glocker, Miranda; Davidson, Kristin; Kochman, Lynda; Guzick, David; Hoeger, Kathleen

    2009-01-01

    We studied the effect of metformin or placebo in a lifestyle modification program (LSM) combined with oral contraceptives (OC) on quality of life parameters measured by the PCOS questionnaire (PCOSQ) in obese adolescent women with validated PCOS.

  5. Understanding Land Cover Changes in the Italian Alps and Romanian Carpathians Combining Remote Sensing and Stakeholder Interviews

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiga Malek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades, socio-economic changes in Europe have had a significant effect on land cover changes, but it is unclear how this has affected mountain areas. We focus on two mountain areas: the eastern Italian Alps and the Romanian Curvature Carpathians. We classified land cover from Earth observation data after 1989 by using applied remote sensing techniques. We also analyzed socio-economic data and conducted semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders. In Italy, most of the land conversion processes followed long-term trends. In Romania, they took off with the sudden political changes after 1989. In both areas, forest expansion was the biggest, but potentially not the most consequential change. More consequential changes were urbanization in Italy and small-scale deforestation in Romania, since both increased the risk of hydro-meteorological hazards. Stakeholders’ views were an added value to the spatial analysis and vice versa. For example, stakeholders’ explanations resolved the seeming contradiction of decreased economic activity and increased urbanization (Italian site, as a consequence of secondary home building. Furthermore, spatial analysis revealed that urbanization in Romania was less significant with regard to consequences for the wider human-environment system than many stakeholders thought.

  6. A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2016-09-01

    Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

  7. Changing without change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farné Fratini, Chiara; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Elle, Morten

    2013-01-01

    In the last decade, due to climate change impacts, increasing urban development, increased stress on natural resource and gradual aging of the technical infrastructure on place, the Danish urban water sector has realized the need to invest more generously on the optimization of technical performa......In the last decade, due to climate change impacts, increasing urban development, increased stress on natural resource and gradual aging of the technical infrastructure on place, the Danish urban water sector has realized the need to invest more generously on the optimization of technical...... performances and the innovation of management approaches in favor of non-structural measure and more integrated perspectives. On one hand, municipal plans have put an increasing attention on terms like urban livability, resilience and sustainability mostly resulting on an increasing focus on the need to create...... green and blue recreational spaces in the city-scape. On the other hand, in a context of economic downturn, national strategies aim at promoting the eco-innovation of the water sectors to support the Danish water industry competitiveness in the international market and create new jobs nationally...

  8. Changing families, changing workplaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M

    2011-01-01

    American families and workplaces have both changed dramatically over the past half-century. Paid work by women has increased sharply, as has family instability. Education-related inequality in work hours and income has grown. These changes, says Suzanne Bianchi, pose differing work-life issues for parents at different points along the income distribution. Between 1975 and 2009, the labor force rate of mothers with children under age eighteen increased from 47.4 percent to 71.6 percent. Mothers today also return to work much sooner after the birth of a child than did mothers half a century ago. High divorce rates and a sharp rise in the share of births to unmarried mothers mean that more children are being raised by a single parent, usually their mother. Workplaces too have changed, observes Bianchi. Today's employees increasingly work nonstandard hours. The well-being of highly skilled workers and less-skilled workers has been diverging. For the former, work hours may be long, but income has soared. For lower-skill workers, the lack of "good jobs" disconnects fathers from family obligations. Men who cannot find work or have low earnings potential are much less likely to marry. For low-income women, many of whom are single parents, the work-family dilemma is how to care adequately for children and work enough hours to support them financially. Jobs for working-class and lower middle-class workers are relatively stable, except in economic downturns, but pay is low, and both parents must work full time to make ends meet. Family income is too high to qualify for government subsidized child care, but too low to afford high-quality care in the private market. These families struggle to have a reasonable family life and provide for their family's economic well-being. Bianchi concludes that the "work and family" problem has no one solution because it is not one problem. Some workers need more work and more money. Some need to take time off around the birth of a child

  9. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

  10. Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

  11. Content analysis of Hydrometeorological Network in the Lower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    jen

    Thus important hydrometerological information relevant to agricultural planning are missing. ... they are meant to provide information to aid in planning .... security were missed. The study ... Nigeria. Unpublished M.Sc thesis, Department.

  12. Long-range hydrometeorological ensemble predictions of drought parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2012-06-01

    Low streamflow as consequence of a drought event affects numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that may be impacted by drought are, e.g. power production, agriculture, tourism and water quality management. Numerical models have increasingly been used to forecast low-flow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the low-flow indices duration, severity and magnitude, with a forecast lead-time of one month, to assess their potential usefulness for predictions. The ECMWF VarEPS 5 member reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification shows that, compared to peak flow, probabilistic low-flow forecasts are skillful for longer lead-times, low-flow index forecasts could also be beneficially included in a decision-making process. The results suggest monthly runoff forecasts are useful for accessing the risk of hydrological droughts.

  13. Hydro-meteorological data analysis using OLAP techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Néstor Darío Duque-Méndez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La riqueza de los datos registrados por las redes de estaciones hidrometeorológicas ofrece una gran oportunidad para analizar, conocer y entender mejor las variables hidroclimatológicas. Por lo tanto, el almacenamiento eficiente de los datos y su tratamiento eficaz son un requisito previo para la investigación meteorológica e hidrológica que requiere de estrategias para que la captación, transmisión, almacenamiento y procesamiento de datos que garanticen su calidad y consistencia. El propósito de este trabajo es desarrollar un modelo conceptual para una bodega de datos diseñada en un esquema en estrella que permita el almacenamiento estructurado y el análisis multidimensional de series históricas de datos hidroclimatológicos. La información registrada por las redes telemétricas de estaciones hidrometeorológicas existentes en Manizales y en el Departamento de Caldas son la fuente de información. El esquema de bodega de datos propuesto aprovecha los datos disponibles (en algunos casos más de 50 años con el fin de aplicar procesamiento analítico en línea (OLAP para analizar la calidad de la información y descubrir relaciones ocultas entre las variables, en una región particularmente afectada por el cambio climático y especialmente por fenómenos de variabilidad climática. La principal contribución de este documento abarca la exploración de alternativas a los métodos tradicionales de almacenamiento y análisis de información y la presentación de un número de casos que demuestran la eficacia del modelo propuesto en la evaluación de la calidad de los datos y de la visualización de las relaciones entre las diversas variables a diferentes escalas y para casos específicos.

  14. Estimation of water storage changes in small endorheic lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (Northern Kazakhstan, Central Asia); the effect of climate change and anthropogenic influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yapiyev, Vadim; Sagintayev, Zhanay; Verhoef, Anne; Samarkhanov, Kanat; Jumassultanova, Saltanat

    2017-04-01

    Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. It has been observed in recent decades that water-limited steppe regions of Central Asia are among ecosystems found to exhibit enhanced responses to climate variability. In fact, the largest share of worldwide net loss of permanent water extent is geographically concentrated in the Central Asia and Middle East regions attributed to both climate variability/change and human activities impacts. We used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and high resolution Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia, for the period 2000-2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, hydrometeorological network observations as well as regional climate model projections we evaluate the impacts of past thirty years and future climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. The anthropogenic water consumption was estimated based on data collected at a local water supply company and regulation authorities. One the one hand historical in-situ observations and future climate projections do not show a significant change in precipitation in BNNP. On the other hand both observations and the model demonstrate steadily rising air temperatures in the area. It is concluded that the long-term decline in water levels for most of these lakes can be largely attributed to climate change (but only via changes in air temperature, causing evaporation to exceed precipitation) and not to direct anthropogenic influences such as increased water withdrawals. In addition, the two largest lakes, showing the highest historical water level decline, do not have sufficient water drainage basin area to sustain water levels under increased evaporation rates.

  15. Changing premises -- changing policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, S.C.

    1994-01-01

    The assumption that cleanup is necessary at all leaking UST sites is being questioned. The concept of natural attenuation coupled with natural biological degradation is the basis for challenging the assumed necessity of cleanup. Evidence from numerous studies indicates that natural attenuation and degradation of petroleum occur over time. These studies suggest that the processes of attenuation and degradation occur at all petroleum release sites, to varying degrees, once the actual leak is stopped. Because attenuation and degradation occur, it is asserted that cleanup of petroleum contamination is not necessary if the risk of exposure to the remaining contamination is low. The question of ''how clean is clean?'', based on the assumption that cleanup is necessary at all sites, then changes to ''is cleanup necessary at this site?'' The starting assumption becomes ''cleanup may not be necessary if risk is low.'' Public acceptance of leaving contamination in place appears to be increasing. Common criticisms, such as real estate/property values, prevention incentives, and ground water as resource issues are addressed. Also offered is a suggested framework for future policy decisions focusing on the appropriate amount of information necessary to close a leaksite

  16. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

  17. Adapting regional watershed management to climate change in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf; Muerth, Markus; Schmid, Josef; Jobst, Andreas; Caya, Daniel; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Chaumont, Diane; Velazquez, Juan-Alberto; Turcotte, Richard; Ricard, Simon

    2013-04-01

    The international research project QBic3 (Quebec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change) aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of regional scale catchments in Southern Quebec (Canada) and Bavaria (Germany). For this purpose, a hydro-meteorological modeling chain has been established, applying climatic forcing from both dynamical and statistical climate model data to an ensemble of hydrological models of varying complexity. The selection of input data, process descriptions and scenarios allows for the inter-comparison of the uncertainty ranges on selected runoff indicators; a methodology to display the relative importance of each source of uncertainty is developed and results for past runoff (1971-2000) and potential future changes (2041-2070) are obtained. Finally, the impact of hydrological changes on the operational management of dams, reservoirs and transfer systems is investigated and shown for the Bavarian case studies, namely the potential change in i) hydro-power production for the Upper Isar watershed and ii) low flow augmentation and water transfer rates at the Donau-Main transfer system in Central Franconia. Two overall findings will be presented and discussed in detail: a) the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows, is strongly affected by the choice of the hydrological model. It can be shown that an assessment of the changes in the hydrological cycle is best represented by a complex physically based hydrological model, computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) can give a significant level of trust for selected indicators. b) the major differences in the projected climate forcing stemming from the ensemble of dynamic climate models (GCM/RCM) versus the statistical-stochastical WETTREG2010 approach. While the dynamic ensemble reveals a moderate modification of the hydrological processes in the investigated catchments

  18. Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Ana; Peregon, Anna; Gani, Érico A.; Khudyaev, Sergey; Yue, Chao; Li, Wei; Gouveia, Célia M.; Ciais, Philippe

    2018-06-01

    While the global carbon budget (GCB) is relatively well constrained over the last decades of the 20th century [1], observations and reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 growth rate present large discrepancies during the earlier periods [2]. The large uncertainty in GCB has been attributed to the land biosphere, although it is not clear whether the gaps between observations and reconstructions are mainly because land-surface models (LSMs) underestimate inter-annual to decadal variability in natural ecosystems, or due to inaccuracies in land-use change reconstructions. As Eurasia encompasses about 15% of the terrestrial surface, 20% of the global soil organic carbon pool and constitutes a large CO2 sink, we evaluate the potential contribution of natural and human-driven processes to induce large anomalies in the biospheric CO2 fluxes in the early 20th century. We use an LSM specifically developed for high-latitudes, that correctly simulates Eurasian C-stocks and fluxes from observational records [3], in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the Eurasian sink to the strong high-latitude warming occurring between 1930 and 1950. We show that the LSM with improved high-latitude phenology, hydrology and soil processes, contrary to the group of LSMs in [2], is able to represent enhanced vegetation growth linked to boreal spring warming, consistent with tree-ring time-series [4]. By compiling a dataset of annual agricultural area in the Former Soviet Union that better reflects changes in cropland area linked with socio-economic fluctuations during the early 20th century, we show that land-abadonment during periods of crisis and war may result in reduced CO2 emissions from land-use change (44%–78% lower) detectable at decadal time-scales. Our study points to key processes that may need to be improved in LSMs and LUC datasets in order to better represent decadal variability in the land CO2 sink, and to better constrain the GCB during the pre-observational record.

  19. Change Management

    OpenAIRE

    Motab Raja Aljohani

    2015-01-01

    Managing change within organizations is a core challenge for the HR professionals as any change concerns people working within the organization. The study of Human Resource Management is based on achievement of goals through corporate strategy and effective management of change within the organization. Change can be successful when it links people job satisfaction and productivity within an organization. Effective change management can result in greater productivity higher work life quality a...

  20. Organizational Change

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, MC; Coan, P

    2015-01-01

    This chapter examines how organizational change principles may be applied to promote organizational greening and employee pro-environmental behaviour. Four key areas of change management are focused upon: organizational culture; leadership and change agents; employee engagement; and the differing forms that change may take. The role of each factor in supporting environmental change is discussed, together with relevant research evidence drawn from the corporate sustainability; WPEB; management...

  1. Sustainability of integrated land and water resources management in the face of climate and land use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setegn, Shimelis

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable development integrates economic development, social development, and environmental protection. Land and Water resources are under severe pressure from increasing populations, fast development, deforestation, intensification of agriculture and the degrading environment in many part of the world. The demand for adequate and safe supplies of water is becoming crucial especially in the overpopulated urban centers of the Caribbean islands. Moreover, population growth coupled with environmental degradation and possible adverse impacts of land use and climate change are major factors limiting freshwater resource availability. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model and analyze the spatiotemporal variability of hydrological processes in the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Physically based eco-hydrological model was developed and calibrated in the Rio Grande Manati and Wag water watershed. Spatial distribution of annual hydrological processes, water balance components for wet and dry years, and annual hydrological water balance of the watershed are discussed. The impact of land use and climate change are addressed in the watersheds. Appropriate nature based adaptation strategies were evaluated. The study will present a good understanding of advantages and disadvantages of nature-based solutions for adapting climate change, hydro-meteorological risks and other extreme hydrological events.

  2. Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reshmidevi, T. V.; Nagesh Kumar, D.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

    2018-01-01

    This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario.

  3. COASTAL DYNAMICS OF THE PECHORA AND KARA SEAS UNDER CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AND HUMAN DISTURBANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav A. Ogorodov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal dynamics monitoring on the key areas of oil and gas development at the Barents and Kara Seas has been carried out by Laboratory of Geoecology of the North at the Faculty of Geography (Lomonosov Moscow State University together with Zubov State Oceanographic Institute (Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring for more than 30 years. During this period, an up-to-date monitoring technology, which includes direct field observations, remote sensing and numerical methods, has been developed. The results of such investigations are analyzed on the example of the Ural coast of Baydaratskaya Bay, Kara Sea. The dynamics of thermal-abrasion coasts are directly linked with climate and sea ice extent change. A description of how the wind-wave energy flux and the duration of the ice-free period affect the coastal line retreat is provided, along with a method of the wind-wave energy assessment and its results for the Kara Sea region. We have also evaluated the influence of local anthropogenic impacts on the dynamics of the Arctic coasts. As a result, methods of investigations necessary for obtaining the parameters required for the forecast of the retreat of thermoabrasional coasts have been developed.

  4. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  5. WASCAL - West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use Regional Climate Simulations and Land-Atmosphere Simulations for West Africa at DKRZ and elsewhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Ilse; Arnault, Joel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald

    2014-05-01

    Changing climate and hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are among the most severe challenges to Africa in the 21st century. In particular West Africa faces an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with negative impacts on humans and environment due to climate change, increased hydro-meteorological variability and land use changes. To help meet these challenges, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) started an initiative with institutions in Germany and West African countries to establish together a West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). This activity is accompanied by an establishment of trans-boundary observation networks, an interdisciplinary core research program and graduate research programs on climate change and related issues for strengthening the analytical capabilities of the Science Service Center. A key research activity of the WASCAL Competence Center is the provision of regional climate simulations in a fine spatio-temporal resolution for the core research sites of WASCAL for the present and the near future. The climate information is needed for subsequent local climate impact studies in agriculture, water resources and further socio-economic sectors. The simulation experiments are performed using regional climate models such as COSMO-CLM, RegCM and WRF and statistical techniques for a further refinement of the projections. The core research sites of WASCAL are located in the Sudanian Savannah belt in Northern Ghana, Southern Burkina Faso and Northern Benin. The climate in this region is semi-arid with six rainy months. Due to the strong population growth in West Africa, many areas of the Sudanian Savannah have been already converted to farmland since the majority of the people are living directly or indirectly from the income produced in agriculture. The simulation experiments of the Competence Center and the Core Research Program are

  6. Cognitive Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here Home › Non-Movement Symptoms › Cognitive Changes Cognitive Changes Some people with Parkinson’s disease (PD) experience mild cognitive impairment. Feelings of distraction or disorganization can accompany ...

  7. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    subsequent variety of management options and adaptation strategies. Therefore, the 4-year FP7-project CLIMB (Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins, GA: 244151) includes a major focus on the assessment and quantification of uncertainties. First, CLIMB employs a rigorous climate change model analysis, auditing the Global and Regional Climate Model data available through the ENSEMBLES and PRUDENCE initiatives. The audits lead to select the best regional performers as compared to observed values during the climatic reference period (1971- 2000). Specific bias correction and downscaling procedures are applied to provide the driving inputs and meet the demands of the subsequent impact models, transferring a future climate signal (2041-2070) into hydrological quantities at the catchment or landscape scale. However, very limited quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment, where predictive power becomes more and more important and raises the demand for process-based and spatially explicit model types. Thus, CLIMB uses hydrological model ensembles to analyze the performance of existing models and works to identify the appropriate level of model complexity, and thus to determine the data specifications required to provide robust results in a climate change context. The presentation focuses on the CLIMB multi-level strategy to uncertainty assessment and highlights latest findings in some of the seven CLIMB case studies. In particular, the presentation will demonstrate the current constraints of hydro-meteorological data availability and processing and searches for solutions that can eventually be provided by integrating hydro-meteorology and ICT research communities.

  8. Change Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motab Raja Aljohani

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Managing change within organizations is a core challenge for the HR professionals as any change concerns people working within the organization. The study of Human Resource Management is based on achievement of goals through corporate strategy and effective management of change within the organization. Change can be successful when it links people job satisfaction and productivity within an organization. Effective change management can result in greater productivity higher work life quality and improved readiness for future changes. Most HR professionals are regularly being asked for developing attitudes and personal skills for change implementation as technical understanding of applying the tools for managing change. This article will outline the challenges faced by Human Resource managers in change implementation. The well-known theories and literature will also be discussed to share light on the importance and change management for HR. Also recommendations and suggestion will be provided for improving change management process within an organizational context. Keywords Change Management Human Resource Management

  9. Time change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut; Winkel, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    The mathematical operation of time-changing continuous-time stochastic processes can be regarded as a standard method for building financial models. We briefly review the theory on time-changed stochastic processes and relate them to stochastic volatility models in finance. Popular models......, including time-changed Lévy processes, where the time-change process is given by a subordinator or an absolutely continuous time change, are presented. Finally, we discuss the potential and the limitations of using such processes for constructing multivariate financial models....

  10. Correlation between atmospheric pressure changes and abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture: results of a single-center study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molacek, Jiri; Treska, Vladislav; Kasik, Miroslav; Houdek, Karel; Baxa, Jan

    2013-09-01

    There is much interest in all factors that influence the etiopathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture. Apart from the well-established factors such as arterial hypertension, smoking, age, and genetic predisposition, less common factors that may play a role in the mechanism of the rupture are the subject of much discussion. These include atmospheric conditions, temperature, and atmospheric pressure. We conducted this study to investigate the effects of the absolute value of atmospheric pressure and its changes on the frequency of AAA rupture. We retrospectively examined 54 patients who underwent treatment for a ruptured AAA at the Clinic of Surgery in the University Hospital in Pilsen between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2009. We collected data on the atmospheric pressure in this period from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute in Pilsen. We did not find a significant difference in atmospheric pressure values between the days when the rupture occurred versus the other days (p atmospheric pressure during the 48 h preceding the rupture (Student's test p atmospheric pressure in that month. These findings suggest that atmospheric pressure and its changes do not affect the pathogenesis of AAA rupture.

  11. Plasma-Sprayed LSM Protective Coating on Metallic Interconnect of SOFC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Wei Chen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a (La0.8Sr0.20.98MnO3 protective layer was prepared on the C276, Crofer22 APU, SUS304, and SUS430 alloys by the atmospheric plasma spraying technique (APS. The oxidation behavior and electrical property of these metal alloys have been investigated isothermally at 800 °C in air for up to 300 h. Results showed that the ferritic steels transform into MnCr2O4 spinels and a Cr2O3 layer during isothermal oxidation. The C276 alloy formed NiCr2O4 and FeCr2O4 layers; these are protective and act as an effective barrier against chromium migration into the outer oxide layer, and the alloy demonstrated good oxidation resistance and a reasonable match to the coefficient of thermal expansion of the substrate and a low-oxide scale area-specific resistance. The ASR effects on the formation of oxide scale have been investigated, and the ASR of coated samples was below 0.024 Ω·cm2. It has good electrical conductivity for SOFC in long-term use.

  12. Reversible Decomposition of Secondary Phases in BaO Infiltrated LSM Electrodes-Polarization Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Marie Lund; McIntyre, Melissa D.; Norrman, Kion

    2016-01-01

    and Raman spectroscopy reveal the formation of a secondary phase, Ba3Mn2O8, on the electrode. During the in operando Raman investigation of the BaO-infiltrated La0.85Sr0.15MnO3±δ electrodes, experiments are performed at 300 and 500 °C with oxygen partial pressure 0.1 atm and with −1 or +1 V Applied...... for the reduced polarization resistance observed at open Circuit voltage (OCV) in an oxygen containing atmosphere. Furthermore, the results illustrate the dramatic differences between the electrode surface composition at OCV and during cathodic polarization. Overall, the results highlight the dynamic interactions...... between minor secondary phases and applied potential, a general effect that may be important for the high-performance frequently observed with ceramic electrodes prepared by infiltration....

  13. GERAKAN LSM KOLING PADA UPAYA KONSERVASI HUTAN DIENG TAHUN 2000-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muntobingul Rojbiyah

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of various kinds of natural disasters in many parts of the world indicates just how nature has been corrupted and degraded. Environmental degradation that occurs has a lot of movement attracted the attention of environmentalists as well as NGOs. Concern about environmental issues today is nothing new among NGOs. A variety of environmental movement they are doing to realize a sustainable environment. Similarly, NGOs Koling which since 1999 has been struggling in Wonosobo forest management policy. Ideology of the NGO movement is a determination of how they develop strategies and activities in the struggle for environmental issues (forestry in Wonosobo.With the sociological perspective of social movement paradigm, the research made to analyze how the paradigm of the NGO movement Koling determine the pace of movement is then presented to each program and activity does. The theory used to analyze the theoretical model with the environmental NGO movement Hayden and Mansour Fakih ideas about the paradigm of NGOs. The final results concluded that: (1 NGO environmental movement Koling is visionary in achieving management natural resources (especially the management of forest resources based on the empowerment and social welfare, (2 the movements are more likely paradigmatic moderate/reformist despite sometimes also paradigmatic liberal/ transformative, (3 the analysis of the concept model of the environmental NGO movement Heyden, Koling more closely to the model of instrumental strategies and sub -cultural.

  14. Dynamic behavior of impurities and native components in model LSM microelectrodes on YSZ

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norrman, Kion; Hansen, Karin Vels; Jacobsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    behavior of the native components (La, Sr, Mn) and selected impurities (Si, K, Na) both laterally and in-depth. Manganese was found to be especially mobile and showed both segregation onto the electrolyte as a result of temperature and polarization and dissolution into the electrolyte below...

  15. Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-06-01

    Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974-2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

  16. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  17. Thermal Regime of A Deep Temperate Lake and Its Response to Climate Change: Lake Kuttara, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhisa A. Chikita

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A deep temperate lake, Lake Kuttara, Hokkaido, Japan (148 m deep at maximum was completely ice-covered every winter in the 20th century. However, ice-free conditions of the lake over winter occurred three times in the 21st century, which is probably due to global warming. In order to understand how thermal regime of the lake responds to climate change, a change in lake mean water temperature from the heat storage change was calculated by integrating observed water temperature over water depths and by numerical calculation of heat budget components based on hydrometeorological data. As a result, a temporal variation of lake mean water temperature from the heat budget calculation was very reasonable to that from the observed water temperature (determination coefficient R2 = 0.969. The lowest lake mean temperature for non-freeze was then evaluated at −1.87 °C, referring to the zero level at 6.80 °C. The 1978–2017 data at a meteorological station near Kuttara indicated that there are significant (less than 5% level long-term trends for air temperature (+0.024 °C/year and wind speed (−0.010 m/s/year. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on freeze-up patterns, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for the calculated lake mean water temperature. It is noted that, after two decades, the lake could be ice-free once per every two years.

  18. Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    We present an approach for evaluating catchment-scale hydro-meteorological impacts of projected climate change based on the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of a region. Our approach is motivated by the conjecture that GCMs are especially good at simulating the atmospheric circulation patterns that control moisture transport, and which can be expected to change in response to global warming. In support of this, we show (for the late 20th century) that GCMs provide much better simulations of ACPs than those of precipitation amount for the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain. For the same period, four of the twenty GCMs participating in the most recent (5th) IPCC Assessment provide quite accurate representations of the spatial patterns of mean sea level pressure, the frequency distribution of ACP type, the 'number of rainy days per month', and the daily 'probability of rain' (they also reproduce the trend of 'wet day amount', though not the actual magnitudes). A consequent analysis of projected trends and changes in hydro-climatic ACPology between the late 20th and 21st Centuries indicates that (1) actual changes appear to be occurring faster than predicted by the models, and (2) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) the expected decline in precipitation volume is associated mainly with a few specific ACPs (primarily directional flows from the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabric Sea), and with decreasing probability of rain (linked to increasing temperatures) rather than wet day amount. Our approach is a potentially more insightful alternative for catchment-scale climate impacts assessments than the common approach of statistical downscaling and bias correction.

  19. Change management

    OpenAIRE

    Kebrlová, Linda

    2010-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on Change Management, for which I used translation "správa změn" in my thesis. The diploma thesis includes a proposal for solution of Change Management, which is based from elements of RUP (Rational Unified Process), and methodology and CMMI (Capability Maturity Model Integration). In the first chapter, entitled Software requirements, there are at first defined basic concepts related to Change Management. The chapter includes the definition of software requireme...

  20. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  1. Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

    2017-10-01

    The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

  2. Belief change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Booth, R

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the authors present a brief overview of belief change, a research area concerned with the question of how a rational agent ought to change its mind in the face of new, possibly conflicting, information. The authors limit themselves...

  3. Changing Landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tunby Gulbrandsen, Ib; Kamstrup, Andreas; Koed Madsen, Anders

    with an analysis of the changing organizational landscape created by new ICT’s like Google, Facebook, Wikipedia, iPods, smart phones and Wi-Fi. Based on five netno- and ethno-graphic investigations of the intertwinement of ICT’s and organizational work, we point to three features that have changed the scene: new...

  4. Energizing change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Ashry, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    Since its creation in 1991, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has committed over US D 725 million to nearly 200 projects in 49 nations in concrete action to combat climate changes. Its activities are implemented by the United Nations Environmental Programme, the United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank. This paper describes the GEF's work to combat climatic changes

  5. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  6. Hydroclimatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froehlich, K.; Gibert, E.

    1997-01-01

    The impact of hydro-climatic changes on water resources is a major concern of water authorities and the general public in many countries. The study of global changes has become a fundamental issue during the last decades. Both stable and radioactive isotopes have been extensively used for this purpose. IAEA has started a series of symposia devoted to the use of isotopes in studying current and past environmental changes in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere. Two symposia in this series have so far been organized in 1993 and 1997. Some of the examples cited in this report have been taken from papers presented at the 1997 symposium

  7. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

    2009-01-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  8. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  9. Leading change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-27

    In response to feedback from nursing, midwifery and other care staff who wanted to understand better how the Leading Change, Adding Value framework applies to them, NHS England has updated its webpage to include practice examples.

  10. Behavior change

    Science.gov (United States)

    This brief entry presents the mediating-moderating variable model as a conceptual framework for understanding behavior change in regard to physical activity/exercise and adiposity. The ideas are applied to real world situations....

  11. Implementing change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, J.O.; Hildebrandt, Steen; Andreasen, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is firstly to report on what we have observed by following major improvement and development projects in five industrial enterprises. In particular, the authors shall focus on issues which have often been addressed in Danish enterprises, namely the participation of employees...... with organizational changes. Thirdly, four paradoxes for managing development projects are presented; they may serve as guidelines for coping with the complexity and uncertainty of change processes...

  12. Regional Climate Modeling and Remote Sensing to Characterize Impacts of Civil War Driven Land Use Change on Regional Hydrology and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

    2016-12-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are extensive enough. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from an extended civil conflict in Mozambique. Civil war from 1977-1992 in Mozambique led to land use change at a regional scale as a result of the collapse of large herbivore populations due to poaching. Since the war ended, farming has increased, poaching was curtailed, and animal populations were reintroduced. In this study LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is classified at three instances between 1977 to 2015 using Landsat imagery. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from conflict-driven land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the civil war. Analysis of the Landsat data shows measurable land cover change from 1977-present as tree cover encroached into grasslands. Initial tests show corresponding sensitivities to different LULC schemes within the WRF model. Preliminary results suggest that the war did indeed impact regional hydroclimate in a significant way via its direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions. Results of this study suggest that LULC change arising from regional conflicts are a potentially understudied, yet important human process to capture in both regional reanalyses and climate change projections.

  13. Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polade, Suraj D; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R; Dettinger, Michael D; Pierce, David W

    2017-09-07

    In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

  14. The Joint Front Range Climate Change Vulnerability Study: Closing the Gap between Science and Water Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaatz, L.; Yates, D.; Woodbury, M.

    2008-12-01

    There is increasing concern among metropolitan water providers in Colorado's Front Range about the possible impacts of global and regional climate changes on their future water supply. This is of particular worry given that recent studies indicate global warming may lead to unprecedented drought conditions in the Southwest U.S. (IPCC 2007). The City of Aurora, City of Boulder, Colorado Springs Utilities, Denver Water, City of Ft. Collins, and Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, along with additional water agencies including the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the Water Research Foundation (formerly AwwaRF), and the NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment, have come together to participate in a study intended to provide the education, tools, and methodology necessary to examine possible effects of climate change on several common watersheds. The central objective of this project is to assess possible changes in the timing and volume of hydrologic runoff from selected climate change scenarios centered about the years 2040 and 2070. Two hydrologic models will be calibrated and implemented in the study for this purpose. The future temperature and precipitation scenarios used to generate corresponding future streamflow are based on regionally downscaled temperature and precipitation projections. The projected streamflow obtained by running varied sequences of temperature and precipitation through the hydrologic models, will be compared to historic streamflow to estimate the sensitivity of water supplies to climate change. This regional unified approach is intended to help Colorado water providers communicate with their customers and the media cohesively, by working with the same historic and projected hydrometeorological data, historic natural streamflow, and methodology. Lessons learned from this collaborative approach can be used to encourage and establish other regional efforts throughout the country. Furthermore, this study will set the stage for future

  15. Changing times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liversage, Anika; Ottosen, Mai Heide

    2014-01-01

    . Greater participation in education in Denmark contributes both to young Turkish women increasingly postponing marriage and the partner selection processes changing considerably. While Turkish immigrant women are now getting married at older ages, some do so without changing the sequencing of other family...... formation transitions. Thus, marrying later possibly also means delaying their first sexual experience and moving away from the parental home. In other cases, Turkish immigrant women engage in pre-marital sex but often seek to conceal this from their surroundings...

  16. Environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    of a changing environment is also addressing social and human issues and concerns, and architectural norms and tools. One of the main themes and questions concerns how we relate the built environment and open urban spaces to water. Water plays an important role in Danish culture, tradition. To many Danes......In low-lying regions like Denmark a rising sea level combined with change in rain and wind patterns now cause problems in several coastal cities where open urban spaces, infrastructure, and houses are flooded. The initiatives taken to prevent damages are mainly technical. But the impact...

  17. Change management

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Herselman, M

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available impact of technologies on learning as well as on school administration. In many cases, there is a need to first work with the school at a holistic level, looking at ‘softer’ skills within a school and district (for example, focusing on leadership... concerning the lack of capacity in the principals could be a result of a lack of change leadership rather than solely a lack of expertise. Change management  207 SchoolNET SA therefore proposed to focus on supporting principals, SMTs and district...

  18. Mn valence state and electrode performance of perovskite-type ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    increase in the oxidation state of Mn ions was due to the formation of Mn4+ ions and oxygen vacancies. The addition of Cu ions to LSM systems could lead to enhanced electrode performance for oxygen reduction reactions originating from the change in valence of Mn ions. Keywords. Cu-doped LSM; electrical conductivity; ...

  19. Zirconia stabilized by Y and Mn: A microstructural characterization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appel, Charlotte Clausen

    1995-01-01

    Cubic stabilized ZrO(2) with 8 mol% Y(2)O(3) (YSZ) is commonly used as an electrolyte in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). One of the most promising cathode materials is La, Sr-manganite (LSM). During manufacture and operation of the SOFC, Mn diffuses from the LSM into YSZ. The structural changes ca...

  20. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  1. Changing Workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999

    These four papers are from a symposium on changing workplaces. "Women Entrepreneurs: Maintaining Business Success through Human Resource Development" (Dominic G. Kamau , Gary N. McLean, Alexander Ardishvili) investigates contributions of human resource development (HRD) to business success and reports the following: (1) women can be…

  2. Changing demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetter, B.M.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on changing population demographics, poor academic preparation for and a decreasing interest in engineering among college students which indicates possible shortages ahead, particularly among chemical and petroleum engineers. The talent pool for engineering must be enlarged to include women and minority men, if we are to ensure an adequate future supply for the U.S

  3. Changing Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Chris, Ed.

    1999-01-01

    This serial issue contains nine articles all on the subject of "changing practice," i.e., innovative practices of rural English teachers in the Bread Loaf Rural Teacher Network. "Byte-ing into Medieval Literature" (John Fyler) describes an online conference on medieval literature for rural high school students. "Literacy…

  4. Change Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwhuijsen, van den W.J.M.J.

    2008-01-01

    In dit artikel verstaan we onder "CHANGE MANAGEMENT" het managen van wijzigingen en toevoegingen van het te realiseren object gedurende het gehele bouwproces tot de oplevering van het werk, zoals ik deze vanuit mijn ervaringen beleef. Het onderhoud en beheer laten we buiten beschouwing, omdat deze

  5. Changing Boundaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodkin, Evelyn; Larsen, Flemming

    2013-01-01

    project that is altering the boundary between the democratic welfare state and the market economy. We see workfare policies as boundary-changing with potentially profound implications both for individuals disadvantaged by market arrangements and for societies seeking to grapple with the increasing...

  6. Organisational Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Peter

    the combined use of contingency theory, strategic choice theory and structuration theory. The intention is analyse whether one of the paradigms would emerge as “dominant”, i.e. produce superior explanation of organisational change, or if a multi-paradigmatic view would be more beneficial in understanding...

  7. Changing Workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    This document contains four papers from a symposium on the changing workplace and its relationship to human resource development (HRD). In "Globalization, Immigration and Quality of Life Dynamics for Reverse Brain Drains" (Ben-Chieh Liu, Maw Lin Lee, Hau-Lien), the factors responsible for the brain drain from Taiwan to the United States…

  8. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  9. Climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1977-02-15

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  10. Changing Minds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rikke Kristine

    ; Dekker et al; 2005; Bowen & Inkpen, 2009; Gupta & Govindarajan, 2002). A global mindset is the cognitive ability (of managers) to be open towards and navigating, integrating and mediating between multiple cultural and strategic realities on both global and local levels mirroring the Solar notion of group...... mindset supporting business strategy. It is argued that a knowledge gap exist with regards to creation and change of mindset in connection with strategy execution. Concepts of organizational learning are put forward as a possible point of entrance to mindset change. The paper is informed...... by the exploratory data from the initial phase of an ongoing industrial Ph.D.- project in Solar A/S with the working title “A mindset for strategy execution -mindset-driven leadership development and strategic performance....

  11. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... spaces. From Henri LeFebvre’s thinking we learn that the production of space is a feed back loop, where the space is constructed when we attach meaning to it, and when the space offers meaning to us. Spatial identity is thus not the same as identifying with space. Without indentifying with space, space...... doesn’t become place, and thus not experienced as a common good. Many Danish towns are situated by the sea; this has historically supported a strong spatial, functional and economically identity of the cities, with which people have identified. Effects of globalization processes and a rising sea level...

  12. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  13. Driving change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garron, N.

    2008-01-01

    Cities have an extraordinary responsibility and motivation to act on climate change. They consume three quarters of the world's energy and are responsible for four fifths of its carbon dioxide emissions. They are also highly vulnerable to the resulting impacts of climate change: to take one example, about 20 of the world's 30 largest cities, London included, stand on low lying coasts. They also have great opportunities. Concentrating people and activities at high densities, they can use energy, materials and land efficiently. They are the places where high level, knowledge-based activities congregate, with the expertise to tackle climate change. Many are the drivers of their national economies. Five US cities - New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston and Philadelphia - together constitute the world's fourth largest economy. Bangkok and Sao Paulo with just 10 per cent of their countries' populations, generate 40 per cent of national wealth. Innovation and progress in taking action on climate change action is most likely to be achieved in cities. Mayors and their municipalities have the powers and levers to reduce carbon emissions, and can show leadership in taking decisive and radical action. They control the development of land, have housing powers, and regulate - and often manage - transport. They have varying degrees of responsibility for collecting and processing waste and such other environmental infrastructure as energy and water. They own and manage buildings and vehicle fleets. And they have huge purchasing power. Although leadership from national governments is crucial in negotiating international agreements, setting frameworks and standards and providing fiscal and financial incentives, cities must lead when it comes to practical action on the ground. All over the world, city governments are taking their own initiatives, recognising the need to cooperate across national and international boundaries. Almost one thousand municipalities have made substantial

  14. Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Contributing Factors in Jiangsu, a Major Economic and Agricultural Province of Eastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronghao Chu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Reference evapotranspiration (ETref is a key parameter of hydro-meteorological studies as well as water resource planning. In this study, we adopted the Penman–Monteith FAO 56 model to estimate ETref and through the differential equation and detrending method to determine sensitivities and the contributions of four meteorological parameters to ETref based on daily weather data from 60 stations of Jiangsu province during 1961–2015. Results reveal that ETref and its trends in the three sub-regions of the Jiangsu province had a significant spatial heterogeneity. A significant decreasing tendency of ETref (p < 0.001 was observed in the Huaibei region, while a slightly increasing tendency was identified in the Jianghuai and Sunan regions. These changes of ETref were caused by a significant increasing trend in air temperature (TA and significant decreasing trends in wind speed (WS, sunshine duration (SD as well as a non-significant change trend in actual vapor pressure (VP. However, the VP was the meteorological parameter to which ETref was most sensitive, whereas ETref was more sensitive to TA and SD in the summer but less so in the winter; the least sensitive factor, WS, had the opposite trend. Across the whole region, WS contributed most to ETref, followed by SD, while the positive contribution of TA to ETref could not offset the negative contributions of WS and SD. Although the effect of VP on changes in ETref is small, it could not be ignored, especially in the winter. The reverse relationship between increasing TA and decreasing ETref, namely the “evaporation paradox,” occurred in Jiangsu province. Thus, the outcomes of this study will contribute to thorough insight into the response to changes in ETref to the provincial water planning and management in eastern China.

  15. Infiltration of SOFC Stacks: Evaluation of the Electrochemical Performance Enhancement and the Underlying Changes in the Microstructure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiebach, Wolff-Ragnar; Zielke, Philipp; Høgh, Jens Valdemar Thorvald

    2016-01-01

    Experimental SOFC stacks with 10 SOFCs (LSM-YSZ/YSZ/Ni-YSZ) were infiltrated with CGO and Ni-CGO on the air and fuel side, respectively in an attempt to counter degradation and improve the output. The electrochemical performance of each cell was characterized (i) before infiltration, (ii) after i...

  16. Things change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smock, R.W.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that it has been announced by the Nuclear Power Oversight Committee (NPOC) that the electric utility industry believes that it should order and start building new nuclear plants within the next several years. NPOC, primarily a nuclear utility organization, released a strategic plan that outlined the steps necessary for an order in the mid-1900s so that the next new nuclear plant can be operating by about the year 2000. That may not seem like news, but if you think about it, the announcement does represent a change. It's been a long time since any utility executive was willing to talk favorably about ordering a new nuclear plant. The most common comments has been, no utility manager in his right mind would consider new nuclear capacity the way things are now. Well, things change. At least some utility executives are now thinking the unthinkable. Why the change? There are a lot of reasons, but there seem to be two major ones. The first is the apparent need for a lot of new baseload capacity in the 1990s that can be met only by new coal or nuclear power plants. The second is the growing number of environmental obstacles to new coal-fired capacity. The recently passed Clean Air Act and the increasing concern over global warming are forcing utilities to reconsider nuclear power as an option. To be sure, the Nuclear Power Oversight Committee does not speak for the entire utility industry. Most utilities are probably still extremely leery of ordering new nuclear capacity. However, NPOC's members include top executives of 11 large utility companies and even if they're only speaking for themselves, the announcement is significant. The candidates for ordering new nuclear plants are probably limited to the large nuclear utilities, which is a relatively small number of companies

  17. Belief change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Booth, R

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available in the presence of Vacuity. 3.2 Partial meet theory contraction The preceding construction works equally well when B is taken to be a theory K. But in this case, since the input to contraction is a theory, we should expect the output to be a theory too... that is analogous to that of a belief set K in theory change. Intuitively, E is the ?current? set of expectations of the agent, and the plausible consequences of a sentence ? are those sentences ? for which ? |?? holds. The set of expectations E is not explicitly...

  18. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, David Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming (“GW”) is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time,and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior.Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans reportlower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in afree society, U.S. residents must be convinced or coerced to take the necessaryactions. In spite of the democratic appeal of education, however, many climatecommunicators appear t...

  19. Regime change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong-Sylvester, K.W.

    2004-01-01

    Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

  20. "Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2014-05-01

    Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

  1. Land Surface Phenologies of the Northern Great Plains: Possible Futures Arising From Land and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henebry, G. M.; Wimberly, M. C.; Senay, G.; Wang, A.; Chang, J.; Wright, C. R.; Hansen, M. C.

    2008-12-01

    Land cover change across the Northern Great Plains of North America over the past three decades has been driven by changes in agricultural management (conservation tillage; irrigation), government incentives (Conservation Reserve Program; subsidies to grain-based ethanol), crop varieties (cold-hardy soybean), and market dynamics (increasing world demand). Climate change across the Northern Great Plains over the past three decades has been evident in trends toward earlier warmth in the spring and a longer frost-free season. Together these land and climate changes induce shifts in local and regional land surface phenologies (LSPs). Any significant shift in LSP may correspond to a significant shift in evapotranspiration, with consequences for regional hydrometeorology. We explored possible future scenarios involving land use and climate change in six steps. First, we defined the nominal draw areas of current and future biorefineries in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa and masked those land cover types within the draw areas that were unlikely to change to agricultural use (open water, settlements, forests, etc.). Second, we estimated the proportion of corn and soybean remaining within the masked draw areas using MODIS-derived crop maps. Third, in each draw area, we modified LSPs to simulate crop changes for a control and two treatment scenarios. In the control, we used LSP profiles identified from MODIS Collection 5 NBAR data. In one treatment, we increased the proportion of tallgrass LSPs in the draw areas to represent widespread cultivation of a perennial cellulosic crop, like switchgrass. In a second treatment, we increased the proportion of corn LSPs in the draw areas to represent increased corn cultivation. Fourth, we characterized the seasonal progression of the thermal regime associated with the LSP profiles using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products. Fifth, we modeled the LSP profile as a quadratic function of accumulated

  2. Climate Change And Mitigation Measures For The Hydrometerological Disaster In Himachal Pradesh India- In Light Of Dams.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay K. Pandey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Continuing climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in the climate of the Himalayan region. Casualties and damage due to hazards in mountain regions will increase irrespective of global warming especially where populations are growing and infrastructure is developed at exposed locations. But climate change will definitely increase risk due to the fact that expected increases of heavy rainfall heat waves and glacier melt will amplify hazards in Himalayan region. The rapid release of melt water and rainfall may combine to trigger debris flows and flash flood in higher ranges including the formation of potentially dangerous lakes. These lakes may breach suddenly resulting in discharge of huge volume of water and debris. Himachal Pradesh had experienced a large number of incidences of Hydro-meteorological disaster HMD since its inception in 1971. Flash flood of March 1975 Dec 1988 Satluj flash flood of August 2000 July 2001 June 2005 Flash flood of July 2005 and Cloud burst in June 2013 are the major natural calamities in Himachal Pradesh. Due to continuous HMD brought heavy toll to the state as the loss was estimated in several thousand millions of rupees and also killed several hundreds of people besides large number of cattle heads. Through this paper we carried out a comprehensive study of past HMD and mitigation measures solution and concluded that these disaster are by their nature difficult to predict and control but it is possible to reduce the risk to lives and property through develop mitigation strategy and plan to construct damsbarrages with awareness and knowledge among local communities about the impacts of global warming natural disaster and the threat to the ecosystem communities and infrastructure are generally inadequate.

  3. Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

    2018-03-01

    ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

  4. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  5. Learning from today's extreme weather events to increase our resilience to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.

    2009-04-01

    . Part of our research on behavioral response to flash flood was conducted in the Gard area in France as well as in the Friuli region in Italy. It was a first intent to associate social science research to hydro-meteorological observation. This interdisciplinary collaboration has been a real success and it needs now to be extended to operational services involved in crisis management and response. Based on examples of what have been done with behavioral and physical data collected in the context of interdisciplinary post-event investigations, the presentation will focus on the scientific needs in terms of methods, data collection and archive and make a proposal of integrating this dynamic in the framework of an emerging project called DELUGE (Disasters Evolving Lessons Using Global Experience). This trans-disciplinary initiative aims at developing capacity building related to post-disaster field techniques to change the post-event field experience enterprise and assure that practitioners, forecasters, researchers, students, and others learn from experience to reduce losses.

  6. Technological change and social change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janshen, D.; Keck, O.; Webler, W.D.

    1981-01-01

    Political disputes about the risks and social consequences of modern technologies let many people ask whether society still has an independent capacity to act on the technological change or whether it is not rather the passive object of an obscure development. Modern technology is a challenge not only to the analytical capacity of social sciences. This volume describes the contributions of a conference which took place in April 1979. The first part deals with the social consequences of new technologies. Hereby new communication technologies are the main theme. The contributions of the second part deal with political, organizational, and methodical problems of the sociologic accessory research of technical and social innovations. The texts of the third part analyse experience so far made in the state support of research and technical development. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Assessment of Tangible Direct Flood Damage Using a Spatial Analysis Approach under the Effects of Climate Change: Case Study in an Urban Watershed in Hanoi, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Kefi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of Hydro-Meteorological disasters, such as floods, are increasing. Therefore, the main purpose of this work is to assess tangible future flood damage in the urban watershed of the To Lich River in Hanoi, Vietnam. An approach based on spatial analysis, which requires the integration of several types of data related to flood characteristics that include depth, in particular, land-use classes, property values, and damage rates, is applied for the analysis. To simulate the future scenarios of flooding, the effects of climate change and land-use changes are estimated for 2030. Additionally, two scenarios based on the implementation of flood control measures are analyzed to demonstrate the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings show that climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increases the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and economic damage. The results also reveal that the impacts of climate change will increase the total damage from floods by 26%. However, appropriate flood mitigation will be helpful in reducing the impacts of losses from floods by approximately 8% with the restoration of lakes and by approximately 29% with the implementation of water-sensitive urban design (WSUD. This study will be useful in helping to identify and map flood-prone areas at local and regional scales, which can lead to the detection and prioritization of exposed areas for appropriate countermeasures in a timely manner. In addition, the quantification of flood damage can be an important indicator to enhance the awareness of local decision-makers on improving the efficiency of regional flood risk reduction strategies.

  8. Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

    2016-04-01

    Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring

  9. Flash flooding: Toward an Interdisciplinary and Integrated Strategy for Disaster Reduction in a Global Environmental Change Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, Isabelle

    2014-05-01

    How do people answer to heavy precipitation and flood warnings? How do they adapt their daily schedule and activity to the fast evolution of the environmental circumstances? More generally, how do social processes interact with physical ones? Such questions address the dynamical interactions between hydro-meteorological variables, human perception and representation of the environment, and actual individual and social behavioral responses. It also poses the question of scales and hierarchy issues through seamless interactions between smaller and larger scales. These questions are relevant for both social and physical scientists. They are more and more pertinently addressed in the Global Environmental Change perspective through the concepts of Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS), resilience or panarchy developped in the context of interdisciplinary collaborations. Nevertheless those concepts are complex and not easy to handle, specially when facing with operational goals. One of the main difficulty to advance these integrated approaches is the access to empirical data informing the processes at various scales. In fact, if physical and social processes are well studied by distinct disciplines, they are rarely jointly explored within similar spatial and temporal resolutions. Such coupled observation and analysis poses methodological challenges, specially when dealing with responses to short-fuse and extreme weather events. In fact, if such coupled approach is quite common to study large scale phenomenon like global change (for instance using historical data on green house gaz emissions and the evolution of temperatures worldwide), it is rarer for studing smaller nested sets of scales of human-nature systems where finer resolution data are sparse. Another problem arise from the need to produce comparable analysis on different case studies where social, physical and even cultural contexts may be diverse. Generic and robust framework for data collection, modeling

  10. The frequency and determinants of liver stiffness measurement failure: a retrospective study of "real-life" 38,464 examinations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Ji

    Full Text Available To investigate the frequency and determinants of liver stiffness measurement (LSM failure by means of FibroScan in "real-life" Chinese patients.A total of 38,464 "real-life" Chinese patients in 302 military hospital of China through the whole year of 2013, including asymptomatic carrier, chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, liver cirrhosis (LC, alcoholic liver disease, autoimmune liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC and other, were enrolled, their clinical and biological parameters were retrospectively investigated. Liver fibrosis was evaluated by FibroScan detection. S probe (for children with height less than 1.20 m and M probe (for adults were used. LSM failure defined as zero valid shots (unsuccessful LSM, or the ratio of the interquartile range to the median of 10 measurements (IQR/M greater than 0.30 plus median LSM greater or equal to 7.1 kPa (unreliable LSM.LSM failure occurred in 3.34% of all examinations (1286 patients out of 38,464, among them, there were 958 cases (2.49% with unsuccessful LSM, and 328 patients (0.85% with unreliable LSM. Statistical analyses showed that LSM failure was independently associated with body mass index (BMI greater than 30 kg/m(2, female sex, age greater than 50 years, intercostal spaces (IS less than 9 mm, decompensated liver cirrhosis and HCC patients. There were no significant differences among other diseases. By changing another skilled operator, success was achieved on 301 cases out of 1286, which reduced the failure rate to 2.56%, the decrease was significant (P<0.0001.The principal reasons of LSM failure are ascites, obesity and narrow of IS. The failure rates of HCC, decompensated LC, elder or female patients are higher. These results emphasize the need for adequate operator training, technological improvements and optimal criteria for specific patient subpopulations.

  11. Mountain Rivers and Climate Change: Analysis of hazardous events in torrents of small alpine watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutzmann, Silke; Sass, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    Torrential processes like flooding, heavy bedload transport or debris flows in steep mountain channels emerge during intense, highly localized rainfall events. They pose a serious risk on the densely populated Alpine region. Hydrogeomorphic hazards are profoundly nonlinear, threshold mediated phenomena frequently causing costly damage to infrastructure and people. Thus, in the context of climate change, there is an ever rising interest in whether sediment cascades of small alpine catchments react to changing precipitation patterns and how the climate signal is propagated through the fluvial system. We intend to answer the following research questions: (i) What are critical meteorological characteristics triggering torrential events in the Eastern Alps of Austria? (ii) The effect of external triggers is strongly mediated by the internal disposition of catchments to respond. Which factors control the internal susceptibility? (iii) Do torrential processes show an increase in magnitude and frequency or a shift in seasonality in the recent past? (iv) Which future changes can be expected under different climate scenarios? Quantifications of bedload transport in small alpine catchments are rare and often associated with high uncertainties. Detailed knowledge though exists for the Schöttlbach catchment, a 71 km2 study area in Styria in the Eastern Alps. The torrent is monitored since a heavy precipitation event resulted in a disastrous flood in July 2011. Sediment mobilisation from slopes as well as within-channel storage and fluxes are regularly measured by photogrammetric methods and sediment impact sensors (SIS). The associated hydro-meteorological conditions are known from a dense station network. Changing states of connectivity can thus be related to precipitation and internal dynamics (sediment availability, cut-and-fill cycles). The site-specific insights are then conceptualized for application to a broader scale. Therefore, a Styria wide database of torrential

  12. Changed planning for planned and unplanned change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerkum, van C.; Aarts, N.; Herzele, Van A.

    2011-01-01

    Change, planned and unplanned, can be the product of events (change by chance), new language (change from societal interaction), and practices (track-bound change), and can involve many different societal actors. To position planning as an activity within this broader context, we present a model

  13. Probabilistic Water Availability Prediction in the Rio Grande Basin using Large-scale Circulation Indices as Precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khedun, C. P.; Mishra, A. K.; Giardino, J. R.; Singh, V. P.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrometeorological conditions, and therefore water availability, is affected by large-scale circulation indices. In the Rio Grande, which is a transboundary basin shared between the United States and Mexico, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence local hydrological conditions. Different sub-regions of the basin exhibit varying degrees of correlation, but in general, an increase (decrease) in runoff during El Niños (La Niñas) is noted. Positive PDO enhances the effect of El Niño and dampens the negative effect of La Niña, and when it is in its neutral/transition phase, La Niña dominates climatic conditions and reduces water availability. Further, lags of up to 3 months have been found between ENSO and precipitation in the basin. We hypothesize that (1) a trivariate statistical relationship can be established between the two climate indices and water availability, and (2) the relationship can be used to predict water availability based on projected PDO and ENSO conditions. We use copula to establish the dependence between climate indices and water availability. Water availability is generated from Noah land surface model (LSM), forced with the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). The model is run within NASA GSFC's Land Information System. LSM generated runoff gives a more realistic picture of available surface water as it is not affected by anthropogenic changes, such as the construction of dams, diversions, and other land use land cover changes, which may obscure climatic influences. Marginals from climate indices and runoff are from different distribution families, thus conventional functional forms of multivariate frequency distributions cannot be employed. Copulas offer a viable alternative as marginals from different families can be combined into a joint distribution. Uncertainties in the statistical relationship can be determined and the statistical model can be used for

  14. Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

    2016-02-01

    Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Snow and Ice Crust Changes over Northern Eurasia since 1966

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Groisman, P. Y.; Razuvaev, V.; Radionov, V.

    2009-12-01

    When temperature of snow cover reaches zero Celsius first time since its establishment, snowmelt starts. In many parts of the world this process can be lengthy. The initial amount of heat that “arrives” to the snowpack might be insufficient for complete snowmelt, during the colder nights re-freeze of the melted snow may occur (thus creating the ice crust layers), and a new cold front (or the departure of the warm front that initiated melt) can decrease temperatures below the freezing point again and stop the snowmelt completely. It well can be that first such snowmelt occurs in winter (thaw day) and for several months thereafter snowpack stays on the ground. However, even the first such melt initiates a process of snow metamorphosis on its surface changing snow albedo and generating snow crust as well as on its bottom generating ice crust. Once emerged, the crusts will not disappear until the complete snowmelt. Furthermore, these crusts have numerous pathways of impact on the wild birds and animals in the Arctic environment as well as on domesticated reindeers. In extreme cases, the crusts may kill some wild species and prevent reindeers’ migration and feeding. Ongoing warming in high latitudes created situations when in the western half of Eurasian continent days with thaw became more frequent. Keeping in mind potential detrimental impacts of winter thaws and associated with them snow/ice crust development, it is worthwhile to study directly what are the major features of snow and ice crust over Eurasia and what is their dynamics. For the purpose of this study, we employed the national snow survey data set archived at the Russian Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. The dataset has routine snow surveys run throughout the cold season each decade (during the intense snowmelt, each 5 days) at all meteorological stations of the former USSR, thereafter, in Russia since 1966. Prior to 1966 snow surveys are also available but the methodology of

  16. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  17. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    climate changes indexes of such classification have been developed which included: statistical significance or non-significance of climate changes, direction of climate change tendency in conditions of its statistical significance, assessment of its contribution and a form of the tendency if it enough complex over the time. In detected homogeneous regions the spatial generalization is fulfilled which includes different approach in dependence on regularities of spatial features. They are: an averaging, development of spatial distribution functions or spatial simulation. New spatial linear model has been developed and suggested which includes two coefficients connected with a gradient and a level of space field and one parameter which characterizes the internal inhomogeneity of the field. The last step of the suggested methodology is a using of the detected point and field climate changes for determination of design hydrological value. Traditional design characteristics (as one random event in each year) as well as new ones (POT, rare extremes, characteristics of cycles of climate variability), which can be rare or often than one value per year have been chosen. Approach and methods for using of detected climate changes in hydrological computations have been developed. Application of developed methods has been shown on some examples of different hydrometeorological characteristics (floods, low flow, annual runoff, monthly and annual temperature and precipitation) in some regions with different climatic conditions.(Author)

  18. European climate change experiments on precipitation change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beier, Claus

    Presentation of European activities and networks related to experiments and databases within precipitation change......Presentation of European activities and networks related to experiments and databases within precipitation change...

  19. Reconstruction of the muscle system in Antygomonas sp. (Kinorhyncha, Cyclorhagida) by means of phalloidin labeling and cLSM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Monika C M; Schmidt-Rhaesa, Andreas

    2003-05-01

    In the present investigation the entire muscle system of the cyclorhagid kinorhynch Antygomonas sp. was three-dimensionally reconstructed from whole mounts by means of FITC-phalloidin labeling and confocal scanning microscopy. With this technique, which proved to be especially useful for microscopically small species, we wanted to reinvestigate and supplement the findings obtained by histological and electron microscopical methods. The organization of the major muscle systems can be summarized as follows: 1) All muscle fibers, apart from the intestinal ones, the spine, and the mouth cone muscles, show a cross-striated pattern; 2) Dorsal longitudinal muscle fibers as well as segmentally arranged dorsoventral fibers occur from segment III to XIII; 3) Diagonal muscle fibers are located laterally in segments III to X; 4) Two rings of circular fibers are present in segment II, forming the closing apparatus in Cyclorhagida. Further circular muscles are present in segment I, forming the mouth cone and the eversible introvert, and in the pharyngeal bulb. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. Electrochemical Removal of NOx-Gasses by Use of LSM-Cathodes Impregnated with a NOx Storage Compound

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Marie Lund; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2010-01-01

    Electrochemical decomposition of NO on La0.85Sr0.15MnO3-- Ce0.90Gd0.10O1.95electrodes with and without KNO3 impregnation is investigated. The KNO3 is added as this compound is expected to work as a NOx-storage compound. Measurements are made in the temperature range 300-400 degree C and in three...... in the NO-conversion, when KNO3 is added to the La0.85Sr0.15MnO3-- Ce0.90Gd0.10O1.95electrodes. ©2010 COPYRIGHT ECS - The Electrochemical Society...

  1. Electrochemical oxidation of propene by use of LSM15/CGO10 electrochemical reactor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ippolito, Davide; Andersen, Kjeld Bøhm; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2012-01-01

    The propene catalytic oxidation was studied over an 11-layers porous electrochemical reactor made by La0.85Sr0.15MnO3 and Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95 with the objective to simulate the abatement of exhaust gases emitted from Diesel engines. This work shows the possibility to enhance the catalytic activity th...... of catalysis (EPOC) was found at low temperature....

  2. High temperature electrolyte supported Ni-GDC/YSZ/LSM SOFC operation on two-stage Viking gasifier product gas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofmann, P.; Schweiger, A.; Fryda, L.

    2007-01-01

    and tar traces. The chosen SOFC was electrolyte supported with a nickel/gadolinium-doped cerium oxide (Ni-GDC) anode, known for its carbon deposition resistance. Through humidification the steam to carbon ratio (S/C) was adjusted to 0.5, which results in a thermodynamically carbon free condition...

  3. Evaluating LSM-Based Water Budgets Over a West African Basin Assisted with a River Routing Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Boone, Aaron; Peugeot, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Within the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (ALMIP-2), this study evaluates the water balance simulated by the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) over the upper Oum River basin, in Benin, using a mesoscale river routing scheme (RRS). The RRS is based on the nonlinear Muskingum Cunge method coupled with two linear reservoirs that simulate the time delay of both surface runoff and base flow that are produced by land surface models. On the basis of the evidence of a deep water-table recharge in that region,a reservoir representing the deep-water infiltration (DWI) is introduced. The hydrological processes of the basin are simulated for the 2005-08 AMMA field campaign period during which rainfall and stream flow data were intensively collected over the study area. Optimal RRS parameter sets were determined for three optimization experiments that were performed using daily stream flow at five gauges within the basin. Results demonstrate that the RRS simulates stream flow at all gauges with relative errors varying from -22% to 3% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients varying from 0.62 to 0.90. DWI varies from 24% to 67% of the base flow as a function of the sub-basin. The relatively simple reservoir DWI approach is quite robust, and further improvements would likely necessitate more complex solutions (e.g., considering seasonality and soil type in ISBA); thus, such modifications are recommended for future studies. Although the evaluation shows that the simulated stream flows are generally satisfactory, further field investigations are necessary to confirm some of the model assumptions.

  4. Future change of water vaiables from HadGEM2-AO simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Lee, Johan; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, Chunho

    2013-04-01

    Complex global models developed for climate prediction are now applied to the future climate projection in a number of global modeling centers around the world. In climate prediction aspects, an atmosphere-ocean coupled model (one-tier climate system) has been recognized to exhibit useful skill for a global or certain regions (Graham et al., 2005). Wang et al. (2005) demonstrates that an AGCM coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships for the Asia during the summer period. Also the transition from two-tier to one-tier approach in climate prediction are mainly caused by recent progresses in development of coupled climate models and enlargement of understanding air-sea interactions obtained from international collaborative efforts such as TOGA (the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere) program (Wang et al., 2009). Meanwhile, water resource including river outflow in association with surface and sub-surface water flow is an important part of the global hydrological cycle, and is affected by climate variability and change through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001). Also, water is critical resource to the social, economic and environmental aspects, and advances of these core elements requires improved water resource management. Better management and use of water need to abundant real time hydro-meteorological (river and weather) information as well as accurate water resource forecasting (Barrett, 1990). For this reason, many studies have recently carrying out the water resource prediction and estimation using hydrology and climate model. For example, Shiklomanov et al. (2011) predicted that water resource in Russian territory increases about 8-10% during 2010-2020 using the unit hydrograph (UH) model based on hydrologic rainfall-runoff model. Anderson et al. (2000) explained the probabilistic seasonal prediction of drought with a simplified climate model coupled

  5. Uncertainty in solid precipitation and snow depth prediction for Siberia using the Noah and Noah-MP land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Kazuyoshi; Zupanski, Milija

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the uncertainties associated with land surface processes in an ensemble predication context. Specifically, we compare the uncertainties produced by a coupled atmosphere-land modeling system with two different land surface models, the Noah- MP land surface model (LSM) and the Noah LSM, by using the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) data assimilation system as a platform for ensemble prediction. We carried out 24-hour prediction simulations in Siberia with 32 ensemble members beginning at 00:00 UTC on 5 March 2013. We then compared the model prediction uncertainty of snow depth and solid precipitation with observation-based research products and evaluated the standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The prediction skill and ensemble spread exhibited high positive correlation for both LSMs, indicating a realistic uncertainty estimation. The inclusion of a multiple snowlayer model in the Noah-MP LSM was beneficial for reducing the uncertainties of snow depth and snow depth change compared to the Noah LSM, but the uncertainty in daily solid precipitation showed minimal difference between the two LSMs. The impact of LSM choice in reducing temperature uncertainty was limited to surface layers of the atmosphere. In summary, we found that the more sophisticated Noah-MP LSM reduces uncertainties associated with land surface processes compared to the Noah LSM. Thus, using prediction models with improved skill implies improved predictability and greater certainty of prediction.

  6. Molten salt synthesis of La0.8Sr0.2MnO3 powders for SOFC cathode electrode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Sin-il; Shin, Hyo-soon; Hong, Youn-woo; Yeo, Dong-hun; Kim, Jong-hee; Nahm, Sahn; Yoon, Sang-ok

    2012-08-01

    For La0.8Sr0.2MnO3 (LSM) perovskite, used as the cathode material for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), it is known that the formation of a triple-phase-boundary is restrained due to the formation of a second phase at the YSZ/electrode interface at high temperature. To decrease the 2nd phase, lowering the sintering temperature has been used. LSM powder was synthesized by molten salt synthesis method to control its particle size, shape, and agglomeration. We have characterized the phase formation, particle size, shape, and sintering behavior of LSM in the synthesis using the variation of KCl, LiCl, KF and its mixed salts as raw materials. In the case of KCl and KCl-KF salts, the particle size and shape of the LSM was well controlled and synthesized. However, in the case of LiCl and KCl-LiCl salts, LiMnOx as 2nd phase and LSM were synthesized simultaneously. In the case of the mixed salt of KCl-KF, the growth mechanism of the LSM particle was changed from `diffusion-controlled' to `reaction-controlled' according to the amount of mixed salt. The sintering temperature can be decreased below 1000 °C by using the synthesized LSM powder.

  7. EDITORIAL: Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Soja, Amber

    2007-10-01

    funded projects (always with international participation) in the United States, Russian Federation, China, European Union, Japan, and Canada have been mutually united to explore the scientifically significant Northern Eurasian region. NEESPI scientists have been quite productive during the past two years (2005 2006) publishing more than 200 books, book chapters, and papers in refereed journals. NEESPI sessions at international conferences are open to everyone who works on environmental and climate change problems in Northern Eurasia and the circumpolar boreal zone. This thematic issue brings together articles from the authors who presented their latest results at the Annual Fall American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco (December 2006). The research letters in this issue are preceded by two editorial papers (Leptoukh et al and Sherstyukov et al) devoted to informational support of research in the NEESPI domain that is critical to the success of the Initiative. The following papers are quite diverse and are assembled into five groups devoted to studies of climate and hydrology, land cover and land use, the biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks, the cryosphere, and human dimensions in the NEESPI domain and the circumpolar boreal zone. Focus on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Climate and Environmental Change Contents The articles below represent the first accepted contributions and further additions will appear in the near future. Editorials NASA NEESPI Data and Services Center for Satellite Remote Sensing Information Gregory Leptoukh, Ivan Csiszar, Peter Romanov, Suhung Shen, Tatiana Loboda and Irina Gerasimov NEESPI Science and Data Support Center for Hydrometeorological Information in Obninsk, Russia B G Sherstyukov, V N Razuvaev, O N Bulygina and P Ya Groisman Climate and hydrology Changes in the fabric of the Arctic's greenhouse blanket Jennifer A Francis and Elias Hunter Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973 2005 Heejun

  8. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  9. Teaching Tourism Change Agents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stilling Blichfeldt, Bodil; Kvistgaard, Hans-Peter; Hird, John

    2017-01-01

    course that is part of a Tourism Master’s program, where a major challenge is not only to teach students about change and change agents, but to teach them how change feels and ho w to become change agents. The c hange management course contains an experiment inspired by experiential teaching literature...... change in tourism in the future....

  10. Making Choices about Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinburg, Craig; And Others

    1992-01-01

    This special report includes four articles arising from the American Society for Training and Development's symposium, "Approaches to Change in Organizations": "Taking Charge of of Change" (Steinburg); "Five Views of Change" (Conner et al.); "Breakpoint Change" (Land, Jarman); and "Approaches to Change" (Kotler). (JOW)

  11. Changing micronutrient intake through (voluntary) behaviour change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Lähteenmäki, Liisa; Grunert, Klaus G

    2012-01-01

    change. The behaviours affecting folate intake were recognised and categorised. Behaviour change mechanisms from “rational model of man”, behavioural economics, health psychology and social psychology were identified and aligned against folate-related behaviours. The folate example demonstrated......The objective of this study was to relate behaviour change mechanisms to nutritionally relevant behaviour and demonstrate how the different mechanisms can affect attempts to change these behaviours. Folate was used as an example to illuminate the possibilities and challenges in inducing behaviour...... the complexity of mechanisms influencing possible behavioural changes, even though this only targets the intake of a single micronutrient. When considering possible options to promote folate intake, the feasibility of producing the desired outcome should be related to the mechanisms of required changes...

  12. Social Network Change Detection

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McCulloh, Ian A; Carley, Kathleen M

    2008-01-01

    ... between group members. The ability to systematically, statistically, effectively and efficiently detect these changes has the potential to enable the anticipation of change, provide early warning of change, and enable...

  13. Changing European Governance, Changing Research and Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borrás, Susana

    This chapter examines two fundamental dimensions of the changing European governance, namely the coordination of national policies and the changes in membership (accession of Central and Eastern European Countries in the mid-2000, and of Brexit in late 2010s). In particular this chapter looks...... at these changes from the perspective of their effects, in an attempt to give account of what European integration means in the context of coordinating national research policies, and in the context of changes of EU membership. Hence, the paper asks the question, what are the coordination and membership effects...

  14. Benchmarking sensitivity of biophysical processes to leaf area changes in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Duveiller, Gregory; Georgievski, Goran; Li, Wei; Robestson, Eddy; Kautz, Markus; Lawrence, Peter; Ciais, Philippe; Pongratz, Julia; Sitch, Stephen; Wiltshire, Andy; Arneth, Almut; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Land surface models (LSM) are widely applied as supporting tools for policy-relevant assessment of climate change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems, yet knowledge of their performance skills in representing the sensitivity of biophysical processes to changes in vegetation density is still limited. This is particularly relevant in light of the substantial impacts on regional climate associated with the changes in leaf area index (LAI) following the observed global greening. Benchmarking LSMs on the sensitivity of the simulated processes to vegetation density is essential to reduce their uncertainty and improve the representation of these effects. Here we present a novel benchmark system to assess model capacity in reproducing land surface-atmosphere energy exchanges modulated by vegetation density. Through a collaborative effort of different modeling groups, a consistent set of land surface energy fluxes and LAI dynamics has been generated from multiple LSMs, including JSBACH, JULES, ORCHIDEE, CLM4.5 and LPJ-GUESS. Relationships of interannual variations of modeled surface fluxes to LAI changes have been analyzed at global scale across different climatological gradients and compared with satellite-based products. A set of scoring metrics has been used to assess the overall model performances and a detailed analysis in the climate space has been provided to diagnose possible model errors associated to background conditions. Results have enabled us to identify model-specific strengths and deficiencies. An overall best performing model does not emerge from the analyses. However, the comparison with other models that work better under certain metrics and conditions indicates that improvements are expected to be potentially achievable. A general amplification of the biophysical processes mediated by vegetation is found across the different land surface schemes. Grasslands are characterized by an underestimated year-to-year variability of LAI in cold climates

  15. Open access to Water Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation: proof-of-concept for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat

    2017-04-01

    Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to

  16. Lightning hazard region over the maritime continent observed from satellite and climate change threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilhamsyah, Y.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Hidayat, R.; Murjaya, J.; Nurjaya, I. W.; Rizwan

    2017-02-01

    Climate change would lead to such hydrometeorological disaster as: flash-flood, landslide, hailstone, lightning, and twister become more likely to happen in the future. In terms of lightning event, one research question arise of where lightning would be mostly to strike over the Maritime Continent (MC)?. The objective of the research is to investigate region with high-density of lightning activity over MC by mapping climatological features of lightning flashes derived from onboard NASA-TRMM Satellite, i.e. Optical Transient Detector/Lightning Imaging Sensor (OTD/LIS). Based on data retrieved since 1995-2013, it is seasonally observed that during transition season March to May, region with high vulnerability of lightning flashes cover the entire Sumatra Island, the Malacca Strait, and Peninsular Malaysia as well as Java Island. High-frequent of lightning activity over the Malacca Strait is unique since it is the only sea-region in the world where lightning flashes are denser. As previously mentioned that strong lightning activity over the strait is driven by mesoscale convective system of Sumatra Squalls due to convergences of land breeze between Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia. Lightning activity over the strait is continuously observed throughout season despite the intensity reduced. Java Island, most populated island, receive high-density of lightning flashes during rainy season (December to February) but small part in the northwestern of Java Island, e.g., Bogor and surrounding areas, the density of lightning flashes are high throughout season. Northern and southern parts of Kalimantan and Central part of Sulawesi are also prone to lightning activity particularly during transition season March to May and September to November. In the eastern part of MC, Papua receive denser lightning flashes during September to November. It is found that lightning activity are mostly concentrated over land instead of ocean which is in accordance with diurnal convective

  17. Insight to forcing of late Quaternary climate change from aeolian dust archives in eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, H. A.; Marx, S.; Soderholm, J.; Denholm, J.; Petherick, L.

    2010-12-01

    The Australian continent is the largest source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere. Historical dust emissions records display inter-annual variability in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and inter-decadal variability which has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These reflect change in hydrometeorology of the continents two major dust source regions, the Murray-Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The historical records do not allow longer term variability of ENSO and the PDO and their influence on Australia to be quantified. Importantly, sub-Milankovitch centennial to multi-millennial scale climate cycles and their impacts are not represented in the historical records. In this paper we present summary results from the analysis of two aeolain dust records spanning 7 ka and 45 ka. These were developed from ombrotrophic mire and lacustrine sediment cores collected from the Australian Alps and southeast Queensland. Both sites are located in the southeast Australian dust transport pathway and provide rare insight to forcings of climate variability and its impacts on eastern Australia through the late Quaternary. Age controls for the cores were established using 14C and 210Pb dating [McGowan et al. 2008, 2010]. The cores were sliced into 2 to 5 mm segments with a sub-sample of each segment combusted at 450°C for 12 hrs to destroy organic material and allow recovery of mineral dust. Geochemical fingerprinting of the global climate variability and the impact of forcings originating from the North Hemisphere. These results highlight the potential for adverse impacts on the climate of Australia by disturbance to North Atlantic Ocean circulation. References Marx, S. K., et al. 2005: Provenance of long travelled dust determined with ultra trace element composition: A pilot study with samples from New Zealand glaciers. Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 30, 699-716. McGowan, H.A., et al. 2008: An ultra-high resolution record of

  18. Changing Educational Traditions with the Change Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botha, Louis Royce

    2017-01-01

    This paper outlines the use of a form of research intervention known as the Change Laboratory to illustrate how the processes of organisational change initiated at a secondary school can be applied to develop tools and practices to analyse and potentially re-make educational traditions in a bottom-up manner. In this regard it is shown how a…

  19. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  20. Changing Professional Practice Requires Changing Beliefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Patricia L.; Nelson, Sarah W.

    2009-01-01

    Creating schools that are culturally responsive and successful with all students requires doing basic work with educators to uncover their beliefs about children. If school leaders believe, like many people do, that changed behavior will result in changed beliefs, they are mistaken. Leaders must be proactive in identifying what teachers believe…

  1. An in situ diffraction study of a solid oxide fuel cell system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sörby, L.; Poulsen, F.W.; Poulsen, H.F.

    1998-01-01

    The design of a synchrotron diffraction experiment on a working SOFC air-electrode is outlined. A large number of diffraction data sets were collected successfully from LSM/YSZ/Ag cells under different polarization states at 850 degrees C. Systematic changes are observed in lattice parameters...... and FWHM's for the LSM phase when the cell is polarized. The peak positions for the YSZ electrode are unchanged throughout the entire experiment. This is the first experimental evidence that oxygen stoichiometry in LSM is strongly influenced by the electrochemical reactions which take place. The cell...... parameters increase under reducing conditions, due to a decrease in the oxygen content of the LSM. All observed changes seem to be reversible....

  2. Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

    2012-03-01

    Numerous studies indicate that the northern high latitudes are experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental change, including an increase in air temperatures (e.g. Serreze and Francis 2006), reduction of snow cover (e.g. Brown and Robinson 2011), ecosystem transformations and land cover changes (e.g. Callaghan et al 2011). Many of the potential environmental impacts of global warming in the high latitudes are associated with frozen ground, which occupies about 55% of the unglaciated land area in the northern hemisphere and consists of both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. Frozen soils have a tremendous impact on hydrologic, climatic and biologic systems. Periodic freezing and thawing promote changes in soil structure, affect the surface and subsurface water cycle, and regulate the availability of nutrients in the soil for plants and biota that depend upon them. Freezing and thawing cycles can affect the decomposition of organic substances in the soil and greenhouse gas exchange between the atmosphere and land surface. Significant efforts have been devoted to permafrost-related studies, including the establishment of standardized observations (e.g. Romanovsky et al 2010, Shiklomanov et al 2008), modeling (e.g. Riseborough et al 2008), and climate-related feedback processes (e.g. Schuur et al 2008). Despite its vast extent and importance, seasonally frozen ground has received much less attention. One of the major obstacles in assessing changes in seasonally frozen ground is the lack of long-term data. In general, observations on soil temperature and freeze propagation are available for a limited area and involve a relatively short time period, precluding assessment of long-term, climate-driven change. A few known exceptions include shallow soil temperature and freeze/thaw depth observations conducted as part of the standard hydrometeorological monitoring system in China (e.g. Zhao et al 2004) and the Soviet Union/Russia (e.g. Gilichinsky et al 2000

  3. Managing Organizational Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watwood, Britt; And Others

    Based on studies comparing leadership in two rural community colleges undergoing change and examining the management of change at Maryland's Allegany College, this paper presents a conceptual framework and model for managing organizational change. First, a framework for understanding the community college chair's role in organizational change is…

  4. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  5. The Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Change on Streamflow in the Hailiutu River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangwen Shao

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Hailiutu River basin is a typical semi-arid wind sandy grass shoal watershed in northwest China. Climate and land use have changed significantly during the period 1970–2014. These changes are expected to impact hydrological processes in the basin. The Mann–Kendall (MK test and sequential t-test analysis of the regime shift method were used to detect the trend and shifts of the hydrometeorological time series. Based on the analyzed results, seven scenarios were developed by combining different land use and/or climate situations. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to analyze the impacts of climate variability and land use change on the values of the hydrological components. The China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS was applied to enhance the spatial expressiveness of precipitation data in the study area during the period 2008–2014. Rather than solely using observed precipitation or CMADS precipitation, the precipitation values of CMADS and the observed precipitation values were combined to drive the SWAT model for better simulation results. From the trend analysis, the annual streamflow and wind speed showed a significant downward trend. No significant trend was found for the annual precipitation series; however, the temperature series showed upward trends. With the change point analysis, the whole study period was divided into three sub-periods (1970–1985, 1986–2000, and 2001–2014. The annual precipitation, mean wind speed, and average temperature values were 316 mm, 2.62 m/s, and 7.9 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 1970–1985, 272 mm, 2.58 m/s, and 8.4 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 1986–2000, and 391 mm, 2.2 m/s, and 9.35 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 2001–2014. The simulated mean annual streamflow was 35.09 mm/year during the period 1970–1985. Considering the impact of the climate variability, the simulated mean annual streamflow values were

  6. Adaptation to Climate Change and Managing Disaster Risk in the Caribbean and South-East Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolcemascolo, G. [Asian Disaster Preparedness Center ADPC, Pathumthani (Thailand); Collymore, J.; Keipi, K. [Inter-American Development Bank IDB, Christ Church (Barbados)

    2004-05-01

    Small island and coastal nations of the world have long been recognized as being among the most likely to be affected by the potential impacts of global climate change. Such nations may be found in both the Caribbean and Asian regions. These regions share other commonalities as well, such as tropical climates and, to some extent, the hazards to which these countries are vulnerable. The inextricable linkage between climate change and disaster management emerges from the potential of the former to result in an increased frequency and severity of hydro-meteorological hazards and the associated increase in risk faced by countries as a whole and by vulnerable communities in particular. Within the Caribbean, the most visible of these impacts has been the increasing vulnerability to severe storms and the increased frequency and intensity of flood events. In Asia, the severity of weather extremes associated with the El Nino phenomenon has been apparent. Recent events have resulted in significant social, economic and environmental losses. But, the more gradual-yet nevertheless potentially as catastrophic-impacts expected from climate change include enhanced coastal and beach erosion; loss of land and property; dislocation of people; reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems and hence reduced viability for fisheries; and the bleaching and destruction of coral reefs. For the island states of both the Caribbean and Southeast Asia, which depend heavily on tourism, agriculture and fisheries for their livelihood, these impacts could be ruinous. For many countries, increased vulnerability to water shortages due to climate change is also a very significant concern. The need for a comprehensive integrated approach to natural hazard risk management that would combine the broader climate change and risk management agendas, as well as the urgency to advance the mainstreaming of disaster management and climate change, resulted in the convening of the Seminar on Climate Change and Severe

  7. Detecting the hydrological impacts of forest cover change in tropical mountain areas: need for detrending time series of rainfall and streamflow data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Balthazar, V.

    2012-04-01

    Interactions between human activities and the physical environment have increasingly transformed the hydrological functioning of Andean ecosystems. In these human-modified landscapes, land use/-cover change may have a profound effect on riverine water and sediment fluxes. The hydrological impacts of land use/-cover change are diverse, as changes in vegetation affect the various components of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, infiltration and surface runoff. Quantitative data for tropical mountain regions are scarce, as few long time series on rainfall, water discharge and land use are available. Furthermore, time series of rainfall and streamflow data in tropical mountains are often highly influenced by large inter- and intra-annual variability. In this paper, we analyse the hydrological response to complex forest cover change for a catchment of 280 km2 located in the Ecuadorian Andes. Forest cover change in the Pangor catchment was reconstructed based on airphotos (1963, 1977), LANDSAT TM (1991) and ETM+ data (2001, 2009). From 1963, natural vegetation was converted to agricultural land and pine plantations: forests decreased by a factor 2, and paramo decreased by 20 km2 between 1963 and 2009. For this catchment, there exists an exceptionally long record of rainfall and streamflow data that dates back from the '70s till now, but large variability in hydrometeorological data exists that is partly related to ENSO events. Given the nonstationary and nonlinear character of the ENSO-related changes in rainfall, we used the Hilbert-Huang transformation to detrend the time series of the river flow data from inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in rainfall. After applying adaptive data analysis based on empirical model decomposition techniques, it becomes apparent that the long-term trend in streamflow is different from the long-term trend in rainfall data. While the streamflow data show a long-term decrease in monthly flow, the rainfall data have a

  8. Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. S. Cheng

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Freezing rain is a major atmospheric hazard in mid-latitude nations of the globe. Among all Canadian hydrometeorological hazards, freezing rain is associated with the highest damage costs per event. Using synoptic weather typing to identify the occurrence of freezing rain events, this study estimates changes in future freezing rain events under future climate scenarios for south-central Canada. Synoptic weather typing consists of principal components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure (i.e., a hierarchical agglomerative cluster method, and discriminant function analysis (a nonhierarchical method. Meteorological data used in the analysis included hourly surface observations from 15 selected weather stations and six atmospheric levels of six-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP upper-air reanalysis weather variables for the winter months (November–April of 1958/59–2000/01. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale four general circulation model (GCM scenarios to the selected weather stations. Using downscaled scenarios, discriminant function analysis was used to project the occurrence of future weather types. The within-type frequency of future freezing rain events is assumed to be directly proportional to the change in frequency of future freezing rain-related weather types The results showed that with warming temperatures in a future climate, percentage increases in the occurrence of freezing rain events in the north of the study area are likely to be greater than those in the south. By the 2050s, freezing rain events for the three colder months (December–February could increase by about 85% (95% confidence interval – CI: ±13%, 60% (95% CI: ±9%, and 40% (95% CI: ±6% in northern Ontario, eastern Ontario (including Montreal, Quebec, and southern Ontario, respectively. The increase by the 2080s could be even greater: about 135% (95% CI: ±20%, 95% (95% CI: ±13%, and 45% (95% CI: ±9

  9. Social Change, Linguistic Change and Sociolinguistic Change in Received Pronunciation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabricius, Anne H.

    2018-01-01

    This chapter summarises recent quantitative research on phonetic variation and change in Received Pronunciation (RP) as an elite sociolect, the vernacular of a multiplex socio-economically privileged group in the UK. The ‘elite sociolect’ is distinct from the ‘standard variety’, a term which should...... be reserved to refer to a socially generated mental ‘construct’, a set of expressed and tacit norms for ‘status-bearing’ language practice learned through the educational system and evident in the public domain. The chapter discusses variationist findings on word-final /t/, prevocalic /r/ and a range of vowel...... qualities. It also addresses evidence of sociolinguistic change, in the form of ongoing de-standardisation processes in the speech community of England, as well as the changing language-ideological and language-attitudinal place of RP in the sociolinguistic landscape....

  10. Mapping changes – from changing perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Bo Nissen

    Changes in administrative structures over time has profound implications for the organisation of topographically ordered research data. One example could be the numerous changes in the municipal structure in Denmark the last 150 years. Mapping the huge amount of changes over the past 350 years...... context, and for instance historical censuses tied to an obsolete parish structure can now be depicted more accurately. Digitisation of historical place-name data is a key to establishing an efficient search facility, and though not fully integrated yet, the place-name data resulting from the project can...

  11. Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Cathodes. Unraveling the Relationship Between Structure, Surface Chemistry and Oxygen Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gopalan, Srikanth [Boston Univ., MA (United States)

    2013-03-31

    In this work we have considered oxygen reduction reaction on LSM and LSCF cathode materials. In particular we have used various spectroscopic techniques to explore the surface composition, transition metal oxidation state, and the bonding environment of oxygen to understand the changes that occur to the surface during the oxygen reduction process. In a parallel study we have employed patterned cathodes of both LSM and LSCF cathodes to extract transport and kinetic parameters associated with the oxygen reduction process.

  12. HealthLines: Seasons Change, Moods Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the onset of a form of depression called seasonal affective disorder (SAD). Most commonly, SAD usually occurs ... time. Others include: medicines, changes in diet, and stress management. If you ... Water Well? If your water comes from a private ...

  13. Future state of the climate change, mitigation and development of sustainable agriculture in Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazandjiev, V.; Georgieva, V.; Moteva, M.; Marinova, T.; Dimitrov, P.

    2010-09-01

    The farming is one of the most important branches that bring the increase to the gross internal production in Bulgaria. At the same time, the agriculture is the only branch, as in home, so in world scale in which the made as well direct production spending and investing regenerating (or not) only in the frameworks to one vegetative season. In addition on this, development of the intensive farming without using the most advanced technologies such as irrigation, automation, selection - for obtaining stable cultivars and hybrids, permanent weather monitoring and agroclimatic zoning and integrated and biochemical protection to the cultures and plantations had not possible. Analysis of long-term meteorological data from different regions shows clear tendencies to warming and drying for the period of contemporary climate (1971-2000) as well in Bulgaria. Hydro-meteorological conditions in the country are worsened. The most entire estimate is made from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 2007. Most of authors proven that the last decades are really warmest for last century, even for the entire period of the most instrumental observations. The causes for global warming was long time debatable, but the last investigations prove it anthropogenetic derive. The main goal of the paper is framing in conditions of the expected climate changes in our country for period 2020-2050-2070 and the most likely impacts on the agriculture with inspection padding to the consequences in them and making physical conditions for development of proof farming in production regions of the country. By the means of the systematized database of meteorological and agrometeorological data which we have at disposition for the period of this survey (1971-2000); Provide assignment of the expected climatic changes according to the scenarios in the centers for observing and investigations of climatic changes in Europe, US., Canada and Australia (ECHAM 4, HadCM 2, CGCM 1, CSIRO-MK2 Bs and

  14. Serious-game for water resources management adaptation training to climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy, Eve; Saulnier, Georges-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Water resources access is a main issue for territorial development to ensure environmental and human well-being. Indeed, sustainable development is vulnerable to water availability and climate change may affect the quantity and temporality of available water resources for anthropogenic water uses. How then to adapt, how to change water management rules and practices and how to involve stakeholders is such process? To prevent water scarcity situations, which may generate conflicts and impacts on ecosystems, it is important to think about a sustainable development where anthropogenic water uses are in good balance with forecasted water resources availability. This implies to raise awareness and involve stakeholders for a sustainable water management. Stakeholders have to think about future territorial development taking into account climate change impacts on water resources. Collaboration between scientists and stakeholders is essential to insure consistent climate change knowledge, well identification of anthropogenic uses, tensions and stakes of the territory. However sharing information on complex questions such as climate change, hydro-meteorological modeling and practical constraints may be a difficult task. Therefore to contribute to an easier debate and to the global training of all the interested actors, a serious game about water management was built. The serious game uses scientist complex models with real data but via a simple and playful web-game interface. The advantage of this interface is that it may help stakeholders, citizen or the target group to raise their understandings of impacts of climate change on water resources and to raise their awareness to the need for a sustainable water management while using state-of-the-art knowledge. The principle of the game is simple. The gamer is a mayor of a city and has to manage the water withdrawals from hydro systems, water distribution and consumption, water retreatment etc. In the same time, a clock is

  15. Change the World by Changing Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Wagner

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We live in a world of opportunity – the opportunity to use the insight generated through the multiple crises humanity finds itself in to transit into a much more liveable, sustainable and equitable society. A paradigm change seems to be taking place, a movement for change seems to be in the making, but at the same time there is a widespread feeling that things are getting worse instead of better and there is no guarantee that change will lead us into a better future in the next few decades. To effectively guide the direction of change we need to address the root causes of today’s global challenges and take a close look at what drives human society and human beings. In doing so we realize that we are looking at a holographic picture which contains different layers, which are interdependent: Human biology; values and belief systems; the changing narrative underlying the development of human society; economics and governance and the many tools as well as special interests, support and uphold the outdated paradigms. The one element which influences all people nearly every day and is behind just about each and every crisis is the theory and practice of current economics. The article explores the debate on current economics and proposes mechanisms of change.

  16. Environmental and Water Quality Operational Studies. The Hydrometeorology of DeGray Lake, Arkansas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-02-01

    structure, pumped storage hydropower capabil- ity, and the opportunity for cooperative interagency involvement ( Westerdahl et al. 1975). 3. The...16. 56 %j " .. -II/nnr ,, .. l~ n = , . . , . ...... . oo l& _ , , Westerdahl , H. E., Perrier, E. R., Thornton, K. W., and Eley, R. L. 1975 (Dec

  17. The great drought of 1507 in Hungary: Combined hydrometeorological extremes and their reported consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A contemporary Buda citizen marked 1507 in his diary as the year of the very great drought in Hungary, resulting a significant shortage of crops, wine and hay. In the same time, a rather extensive set of evidence about this drought - combined with other natural hazards such as hails, thunderstorms, (convective) rains, flood(s) - and their consequences, concerning a large area in the central and north-eastern parts of the Carpathian Basin, were also described in the account book of the bishop of Eger. In the poster presentation, the following questions are discussed in more detail: 1) the types of the hazards and extreme events that affected the study area in 1507 (and probably also in 1506 and 1508); 2) locations and the extension of areas affected by the extreme events: more (and less) affected areas, spatial differences and overlaps; 3) damages and other immediate consequences: material loss (building), bad harvests (e.g. grain, honey), high prices; 4) multiannual consequences and the importance of 1508: further natural hazards, shortages of food and animal products, poverty, tax reduction - and the perception of these events; 5) Central European parallels (e.g. drought in the southern German areas, destructive hailstorms in Austria). The presented case study provides an especially well-documented example (reported in different contemporary source types) for a late medieval drought year (or dry period) occurred in East Central Europe: the drought was accompanied by other, mainly convective events that affected agriculture and society in numerous ways. Based on the sometimes more detailed, sometimes fragmentary information we can state that - in spite of the general reference(s) on the "very great drought in the country" - considerable spatial differences occurred both concerning the severity and the type of events that affected extensive areas (but not necessarily the entire country that covered most of the Carpathian Basin at that time).

  18. Genetic analysis of seasonal runoff based on automatic techniques of hydrometeorological data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kireeva, Maria; Sazonov, Alexey; Rets, Ekaterina; Ezerova, Natalia; Frolova, Natalia; Samsonov, Timofey

    2017-04-01

    Detection of the rivers' feeding type is a complex and multifactor task. Such partitioning should be based, on the one hand, on the genesis of the feeding water, on the other hand, on its physical path. At the same time it should consider relationship of the feeding type with corresponding phase of the water regime. Due to the above difficulties and complexity of the approach, there are many different variants of separation of flow hydrograph for feeding types. The most common method is extraction of so called basic component which in one way or another reflects groundwater feeding of the river. In this case, the selection most often is based on the principle of local minima or graphic separation of this component. However, in this case neither origin of the water nor corresponding phase of water regime is considered. In this paper, the authors offer a method of complex automated analysis of genetic components of the river's feeding together with the separation of specific phases of the water regime. The objects of the study are medium and large rivers of European Russia having a pronounced spring flood, formed due to melt water, and summer-autumn and winter low water which is periodically interrupted by rain or thaw flooding. The method is based on genetic separation of hydrograph proposed in 1960s years by B. I. Kudelin. This technique is considered for large rivers having hydraulic connection with groundwater horizons during flood. For better detection of floods genesis the analysis involves reanalysis data on temperature and precipitation. Separation is based on the following fundamental graphic-analytical principles: • Ground feeding during the passage of flood peak tends to zero • Beginning of the flood is determined as the exceeding of critical value of low water discharge • Flood periods are determined on the basis of exceeding the critical low-water discharge; they relate to thaw in case of above-zero temperatures • During thaw and rain floods, ground feeding is determined using interpolation of values before and after the flood • Floods during the rise and fall of high water are determined using depletion curves plotting • Groundwater component of runoff is divided into dynamic and static parts. The algorithm of subdivision described was formalized in the form of a program code in Fortran, with the connection of additional modules of R-Studio. The use of two languages allows, on the one hand, to speed up the processing of a large array of daily water discharges, on the other hand, to facilitate visualization and interpretation of results. The algorithm includes the selection of 15 calibration parameters describing the characteristics of each watershed. Verification and calibration of the program was carried out for 20 rivers of European Russia. According to calculations, there is a significant increase in the groundwater flow component in the most part of watershed and an increase in the role of flooding as the phase of the water regime as a whole. This research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (contract No. 16-35-60080).

  19. Spectral Behavior of a Linearized Land-Atmosphere Model: Applications to Hydrometeorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.; Polcher, J.

    2008-12-01

    The present study develops an improved version of the linearized land-atmosphere model first introduced by Lettau (1951). This model is used to investigate the spectral response of land-surface variables to a daily forcing of incoming radiation at the land-surface. An analytical solution of the problem is found in the form of temporal Fourier series and gives the atmospheric boundary-layer and soil profiles of state variables (potential temperature, specific humidity, sensible and latent heat fluxes). Moreover the spectral dependency of surface variables is expressed as function of land-surface parameters (friction velocity, vegetation height, aerodynamic resistance, stomatal conductance). This original approach has several advantages: First, the model only requires little data to work and perform well: only time series of incoming radiation at the land-surface, mean specific humidity and temperature at any given height are required. These inputs being widely available over the globe, the model can easily be run and tested under various conditions. The model will also help analysing the diurnal shape and frequency dependency of surface variables and soil-ABL profiles. In particular, a strong emphasis is being placed on the explanation and prediction of Evaporative Fraction (EF) and Bowen Ratio diurnal shapes. EF is shown to remain a diurnal constant under restricting conditions: fair and dry weather, with strong solar radiation and no clouds. Moreover, the EF pseudo-constancy value is found and given as function of surface parameters, such as aerodynamic resistance and stomatal conductance. Then, application of the model for the conception of remote-sensing tools, according to the temporal resolution of the sensor, will also be discussed. Finally, possible extensions and improvement of the model will be discussed.

  20. Twentieth-Century Hydrometeorological Reconstructions to Study the Multidecadal Variations of the Water Cycle Over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnet, R.; Boé, J.; Dayon, G.; Martin, E.

    2017-10-01

    Characterizing and understanding the multidecadal variations of the continental hydrological cycle is a challenging issue given the limitation of observed data sets. In this paper, a new approach to derive twentieth century hydrological reconstructions over France with an hydrological model is presented. The method combines the results of long-term atmospheric reanalyses downscaled with a stochastic statistical method and homogenized station observations to derive the meteorological forcing needed for hydrological modeling. Different methodological choices are tested and evaluated. We show that using homogenized observations to constrain the results of statistical downscaling help to improve the reproduction of precipitation, temperature, and river flows variability. In particular, it corrects some unrealistic long-term trends associated with the atmospheric reanalyses. Observationally constrained reconstructions therefore constitute a valuable data set to study the multidecadal hydrological variations over France. Thanks to these reconstructions, we confirm that the multidecadal variations previously noted in French river flows have mainly a climatic origin. Moreover, we show that multidecadal variations exist in other hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, snow cover, and soil moisture). Depending on the region, the persistence from spring to summer of soil moisture or snow anomalies generated during spring by temperature and precipitation variations may explain river flows variations in summer, when no concomitant climate variations exist.

  1. Hydro-meteorological functioning of tropical montane cloud forests in the Orinoco River basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramírez Correal, Beatriz Helena

    2018-01-01

    The hydrologic interactions between the atmosphere, land cover and soil largely determine water availability to sustain ecosystems’and anthropogenic demands. Therefore, understanding how these interactions operate is required to design strategies to reduce or cope with the potential hydrological

  2. Oceanographic validity of buffer zones for the east coast of India: A hydrometeorological perspective

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    , The Gazette of India, Not i- fication, S.O. No. 114(E), 20 February 1991. 37. Fischer, D. W. and Arredondo, M. C., Municipal coastal hazard planning: Los Angeles and Orange County city responses, Cal i- fornia. J. Coast. Res ., 1999, 15 , 974 ? 984...

  3. Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

    2007-12-01

    Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation up through the valley. Humidity and temperature measurements were analyzed to show significant effects of elevation and proximity to melt-water lakes on vapor pressure deficit.

  4. HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the forecasts against observed discharge. Analysis should be specifically oriented to the maximisation of hydroelectricity production. Thus, verification metrics should include economic measures like cost loss approaches. The final step will include the transfer of the HEPS system to several hydropower systems, the connection with the energy market prices and the development of probabilistic multi-reservoir production and management optimizations guidelines. The baseline model chain yielding three-days forecasts established for a hydropower system in southern-Switzerland will be presented alongside with the work-plan to achieve seasonal ensemble predictions.

  5. Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

    2008-12-01

    A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

  6. Real-Time Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Analysis from Radar and Satellite Observations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoffman, Ross

    2000-01-01

    ...) utilizes state-of-the-art precipitation and hydrological forecasting techniques; but, (c) overcomes the inherent limitations of these approaches by optimally merging the results of the different techniques to provide a robust solution...

  7. Environmental tritium as a hydrometeorologic tool in the Roswell basin, New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabinowitz, D.D.; Gross, F.W.; Holmes, C.R.

    1977-01-01

    Tritium analyses of precipitation collected in central New Mexico in the years 1957-1968 were combined with precipitation distribution patterns in space and time. An empirical tritium input function (effective fallout) was constructed for the Roswell artesian basin in southeastern New Mexico. Rather than linearly related to precipitation, recharge is proportional to a sliding function of the mean annual precipitation. Proper selection of precipitation measuring stations was of critical importance in constructing the tritium input function

  8. Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending on where they are situated and the hydrological regime. There is an improvement in CRPS for all catchments compared to raw EPS ensembles. The improvement is up to lead-time 5-7. The postprocessing also improves the MAE for the median of the predictive PDF compared to the median of the raw EPS. But less compared to CRPS, often up to lead-time 2-3. The streamflow ensembles are to some extent used operationally in Statkraft Energi (Hydro Power company, Norway), with respect to early warning, risk assessment and decision-making. Presently all forecast used operationally for short-term scheduling are deterministic, but ensembles are used visually for expert assessment of risk in difficult situations where e.g. there is a chance of overflow in a reservoir. However, there are plans to incorporate ensembles in the daily scheduling of hydropower production.

  9. Improved cyberinfrastructure for integrated hydrometeorological predictions within the fully-coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    gochis, David; hooper, Rick; parodi, Antonio; Jha, Shantenu; Yu, Wei; Zaslavsky, Ilya; Ganapati, Dinesh

    2014-05-01

    The community WRF-Hydro system is currently being used in a variety of flood prediction and regional hydroclimate impacts assessment applications around the world. Despite its increasingly wide use certain cyberinfrastructure bottlenecks exist in the setup, execution and post-processing of WRF-Hydro model runs. These bottlenecks result in wasted time, labor, data transfer bandwidth and computational resource use. Appropriate development and use of cyberinfrastructure to setup and manage WRF-Hydro modeling applications will streamline the entire workflow of hydrologic model predictions. This talk will present recent advances in the development and use of new open-source cyberinfrastructure tools for the WRF-Hydro architecture. These tools include new web-accessible pre-processing applications, supercomputer job management applications and automated verification and visualization applications. The tools will be described successively and then demonstrated in a set of flash flood use cases for recent destructive flood events in the U.S. and in Europe. Throughout, an emphasis on the implementation and use of community data standards for data exchange is made.

  10. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-01-01

    Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry

  11. Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2017-11-01

    In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

  12. FUNDAMENTALS OF CHANGE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Patricia Braica

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To understand the mechanisms of change within an organization, as well as those of innovation, one must consider the constructed character of change. Change is not a natural phenomenon, it is an issue that requires research. However, change should not be understood as a crisis, or even as a mere process of adaptation or development, but rather as a manifestation of a multitude of mutations within institutions. The main subject of study in change management is organization. The exercise of management functions in processes of change comprises diverse activities starting at the moment of realizing the need for change, and up until the moment of transformations imposed by the implementation of these changes.

  13. Environmental change in Bushbuckridge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Erasmus, BFN

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available to environmental change, but projecting current trends in the changes that we observe, combined with increased unpredictability of rainfall, threatens to decouple the age-old interdependencies in the this cultural landscape, and present inhabitants with conditions...

  14. Stories of change

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    as agents of change, and as users and clients of the research. ... CIFSRF places special attention on women farmers and their ... document how research is making a difference in changing ... decisions on overall management and sales.

  15. Flavor changing lepton processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuno, Yoshitaka

    2002-01-01

    The flavor changing lepton processes, or in another words the lepton flavor changing processes, are described with emphasis on the updated theoretical motivations and the on-going experimental progress on a new high-intense muon source. (author)

  16. Changing Information Retrieval Behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Constantiou, Ioanna D.; Lehrer, Christiane; Hess, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    on the continuance of LBS use and indicate changes in individuals' information retrieval behaviours in everyday life. In particular, the distinct value dimension of LBS in specific contexts of use changes individuals' behaviours towards accessing location-related information....

  17. Fingers that change color

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... gov/ency/article/003249.htm Fingers that change color To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Fingers or toes may change color when they are exposed to cold temperatures or ...

  18. Aging changes in immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/004008.htm Aging changes in immunity To use the sharing features ... cells and antibodies that destroy these harmful substances. AGING CHANGES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE IMMUNE SYSTEM ...

  19. Changing your ostomy pouch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostomy - pouch change; Colostomy - pouch change ... of surgery you had. You may need your ostomy for just a short time. Or, you may ... it for the rest of your life. The ostomy pouch attaches to your belly, away from your ...

  20. Realism and Peaceful Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wivel, Anders

    2018-01-01

    This chapter discusses how to understand peaceful change from the perspective of classical realism, structural realism and neoclassical realism.......This chapter discusses how to understand peaceful change from the perspective of classical realism, structural realism and neoclassical realism....

  1. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  2. Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes: Narrating a Regime Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    portrayal of Guatemala to be counter to what was being reported and challenged the narrative. Bernays continued the media assault on Guatemala by convincing...strategic narrative designed to elicit domestic and international support. Drawing from the tenets of social movement theory, this thesis examines the...other special warfare operation. 14. SUBJECT TERMS MISO, PSYOP, social movement theory, regime change, influence 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY

  3. Treatments for Sleep Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Contributing medical factors Non-drug strategies Medications Common sleep changes Many people with Alzheimer’s experience changes in ... at night. Subscribe now Non-drug treatments for sleep changes Non-drug treatments aim to improve sleep ...

  4. Evolution in changing environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorter, Florien A.

    2017-01-01

    Directional environmental change in the form of global climate change and human-induced pollution is one of the most pressing problems facing society today. While species can sometimes adapt to such change by means of phenotypic plasticity and range shifts, there is considerable concern that

  5. Climate Change and Malaria

    OpenAIRE

    Goklany;, I. M.

    2004-01-01

    Sir David A. King's claim that "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" ("Climate change

  6. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  7. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  8. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.

    2005-05-01

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  9. Mapping changes – from changing perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Bo Nissen

    From a historical research perspective, constant changes in administrative geography present a special problem: Archival registers often use geographical/administrative entrances from a fixed point in time, and as the administrative geography changes, our picture of the past is obscured or confused....... Mapping the huge amount of changes over the past 350 years, the DigDag project (Digital atlas of the Danish historical-administrative geography) has established a uniform research infrastructure: a digital cartographical skeleton for thematic mapping and analysis. Thus, for instance epidemiological data...... initiation phase, the first spin-off result is now available on the web: a dictionary of Danish place-names containing historical name variants, analysis and interpretations of more than 150,000 toponyms....

  10. Climate change induced lanslide hazard mapping over Greece- A case study in Pelion Mountain (SE Thessaly, Central Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelitsa, Varvara; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Anagnwstopoulou, Christina

    2015-04-01

    Landslides, as a major type of geological hazard, represent one of the natural events that occur most frequently worldwide after hydro-meteorological events. Landslides occur when the stability of a slope changes due to a number of factors, such as the steep terrain and prolonged precipitation. Identification of landslides and compilation of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk maps are very important issues for the public authorities providing substantial information regarding, the strategic planning and management of the land-use. Although landslides cannot be predicted accurately, many attempts have been made to compile these maps. Important factors for the the compilation of reliable maps are the quality and the amount of available data and the selection of the best method for the analysis. Numerous studies and publications providing landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk maps, for different regions of Greece, have completed up to now. Their common characteristic is that they are static, taking into account parameters like geology, mean annual precipitaion, slope, aspect, distance from roads, faults and drainage network, soil capability, land use etc., without introducing the dimension of time. The current study focuses on the Pelion Mountain, which is located at the southeastern part of Thessaly in Central Greece; aiming to compile "dynamic" susceptibility and hazard maps depending on climate changes. For this purpose, past and future precipipation data from regional climate models (RCMs) datasets are introduced as input parameters for the compilation of "dynamic" landslide hazard maps. Moreover, land motion mapping data produced by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) are used for the validation of the landslide occurrence during the period from June 1992 to December 2003 and as a result for the calibration of the mapping procedure. The PSI data can be applied at a regional scale as support for land motion mapping and at local scale for the

  11. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enright, W.

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Strengthening Environmental Economics Capacity in Research on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... change are likely to have a negative impact on water availability and quality. ... on water provision services in Latin America using environmental economics methods. ... Effect of hydro-meteorological emergencies on internal migration.

  13. Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

  14. Designing Business Model Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to base organisational change on the firm's business model, an approach that research has only recently start to address. This study adopts a process-based perspective on business models and insights from a variety of theories as the basis for the development of ideas...... on the design of business model change. This paper offers a new, process-based strategic analytical artefact for the design of business model change, consisting of three main phases. Designing business model change as suggested in this paper allows ex ante analysis of alternative scenarios of change...

  15. Narrating personality change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodi-Smith, Jennifer; Geise, Aaron C; Roberts, Brent W; Robins, Richard W

    2009-03-01

    The present research investigated the longitudinal relations between personality traits and narratives. Specifically, the authors examined how individual differences in 170 college students' narratives of personality change (a) were predicted by personality traits at the beginning of college, (b) related to actual changes and perceived changes in personality traits during college, and (c) related to changes in emotional health during college. Individual differences in narratives of personality trait change told in the 4th year of college fell into 2 dimensions: affective processing, characterized by positive emotions, and exploratory processing, characterized by meaning making and causal processing. Conscientious, open, and extraverted freshmen told exploratory stories of change as seniors. Emotionally healthy freshmen told stories of change that were high in positive affect. Both positive affective and exploratory stories corresponded to change in emotional stability and conscientiousness during college above and beyond the effects of perceived changes in these traits. In addition, both positive affective and exploratory narratives corresponded to increases in emotional health during college independent of the effects of changes in personality traits. These findings improve our understanding of how individuals conceptualize their changing identity over time.

  16. Shape-changing interfaces:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Majken Kirkegård; Pedersen, Esben Warming; Petersen, Marianne Graves

    2015-01-01

    Shape change is increasingly used in physical user interfaces, both as input and output. Yet, the progress made and the key research questions for shape-changing interfaces are rarely analyzed systematically. We review a sample of existing work on shape-changing interfaces to address these shortc......Shape change is increasingly used in physical user interfaces, both as input and output. Yet, the progress made and the key research questions for shape-changing interfaces are rarely analyzed systematically. We review a sample of existing work on shape-changing interfaces to address...... these shortcomings. We identify eight types of shape that are transformed in various ways to serve both functional and hedonic design purposes. Interaction with shape-changing interfaces is simple and rarely merges input and output. Three questions are discussed based on the review: (a) which design purposes may...

  17. Culture and change blindness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Takahiko; Nisbett, Richard E

    2006-03-04

    Research on perception and cognition suggests that whereas East Asians view the world holistically, attending to the entire field and relations among objects, Westerners view the world analytically, focusing on the attributes of salient objects. These propositions were examined in the change-blindness paradigm. Research in that paradigm finds American participants to be more sensitive to changes in focal objects than to changes in the periphery or context. We anticipated that this would be less true for East Asians and that they would be more sensitive to context changes than would Americans. We presented participants with still photos and with animated vignettes having changes in focal object information and contextual information. Compared to Americans, East Asians were more sensitive to contextual changes than to focal object changes. These results suggest that there can be cultural variation in what may seem to be basic perceptual processes. 2006 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.

  18. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  19. Teaching tourism change agents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Bodil Stilling; Kvistgaard, Hans-Peter; Hird, John

    2017-01-01

    This article discuss es know ledge, competencies and skills Master’s students should obtain during their academic studies and particularly, the differences between teaching about a topic and teaching to do. This is ex emplified by experiential learning theory and the case of a change management...... course that is part of a Tourism Master’s program, where a major challenge is not only to teach students about change and change agents, but to teach them how change feels and ho w to become change agents. The c hange management course contains an experiment inspired by experiential teaching literature...... and methods. The experiment seeks to make students not only hear/learn about change agency and management, but to make them feel cha nge, hereby enabling them to develop the skills and competencies necessary for them to take on the role as change agent s and thus enable them to play key role s in implementing...

  20. Diagnosis and Change or Change and Diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammann, Cortlandt

    Organizational consultation is often viewed as a four-stage process: entry, diagnosis, intervention, and evaluation. A fifth stage, preparation of organizations to conduct diagnosis and change, is frequently neglected. In the preparation stage, organizational consultants must deal with resistance by creating conditions for the consideration of the…

  1. In situ ToF-SIMS monitoring of SOFC cathodes - A case study of La0.74Sr0.17Mn1.01O2.9 model electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohnke, M.; Schaepe, K.; Bachmann, A.-K.; Laenger, M.; Janek, J.

    2017-11-01

    The modelling of electrode kinetics of solid oxide fuel cells is challenging, as the electrodes can change their composition and microstructure during operation at high temperature. Here we present results from in situ studies, applying time of flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to investigate compositional surface changes of lanthanum strontium manganate (LSM) model electrodes. Geometrically well-defined LSM electrodes with the composition La0.74Sr0.17Mn1.01O2.9 were deposited as thin films on yttria stabilised zirconia (YSZ) single crystals by pulsed laser deposition. As counter electrode, a porous platinum electrode was applied on the backside of the solid electrolyte. The electrochemical polarisation experiments were carried out inside the ToF-SIMS analysis chamber at 430 °C, and the ToF-SIMS measurements were performed - in contrast to former work - for the first time during electrical polarisation at elevated temperatures. By applying either a cathodic or anodic potential to the LSM cathode, enrichment or depletion of the different metallic constituents on both, the LSM and free YSZ surface, and within the LSM near surface region, were observed. After polarisation, the system relaxes towards the thermodynamic equilibrium state. Already after the first heat treatment, diffusion of manganese and strontium from the LSM electrode onto the free YSZ surface is observed. The concomitant spreading of the three-phase boundary seems to be one reason for electrode activation after polarisation.

  2. Changing Educational Traditions with the Change Laboratory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Royce Botha

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the use of a form of research intervention known as the Change Laboratory to illustrate how the processes of organisational change initiated at a secondary school can be applied to develop tools and practices to analyse and potentially re-make educational traditions in a bottom-up manner. In this regard it is shown how a cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT perspective can be combined with a relational approach to generate the theoretical and practical tools for managing change at a school. Referring to an ongoing research project at a school, the paper describes how teachers and management there, with the aid of the researcher, attempt to re-configure their educational praxis by drawing on past, present and future scenarios from their schooling activity. These are correlated with similarly historically evolving theoretical models and recorded empirical data using the Vygotskyian method of double stimulation employed by the Change Laboratory. A relational conceptualisation of the school’s epistemological, pedagogical and organisational traditions is used to map out the connections between various actors, resources, roles and divisions of labour at the school. In this way the research intervention proposes a model of educational change that graphically represents it as a network of mediated relationships so that its artefacts, practices and traditions can be clearly understood and effectively manipulated according to the shared objectives of the teachers and school management. Such a relationally-oriented activity theory approach has significant implications in terms of challenging conventional processes of educational transformation as well as hegemonic knowledge-making traditions themselves. 

  3. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  4. Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

  5. Tracking change over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2011-01-01

    Landsat satellites capture images of Earth from space-and have since 1972! These images provide a long-term record of natural and human-induced changes on the global landscape. Comparing images from multiple years reveals slow and subtle changes as well as rapid and devastating ones. Landsat images are available over the Internet at no charge. Using the free software MultiSpec, students can track changes to the landscape over time-just like remote sensing scientists do! The objective of the Tracking Change Over Time lesson plan is to get students excited about studying the changing Earth. Intended for students in grades 5-8, the lesson plan is flexible and may be used as a student self-guided tutorial or as a teacher-led class lesson. Enhance students' learning of geography, map reading, earth science, and problem solving by seeing landscape changes from space.

  6. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  7. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    and the number and types of interviews conducted are, for example, not always clear. Information on crucial aspects of qualitative research like researcher positionality, social positions of key informants, the use of field assistants, language issues and post-fieldwork treatment of data is also lacking in many...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork......There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...

  8. Lateral Attitude Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Tina; Dickel, Nina; Liersch, Benjamin; Rees, Jonas; Süssenbach, Philipp; Bohner, Gerd

    2015-08-01

    The authors propose a framework distinguishing two types of lateral attitude change (LAC): (a) generalization effects, where attitude change toward a focal object transfers to related objects, and (b) displacement effects, where only related attitudes change but the focal attitude does not change. They bring together examples of LAC from various domains of research, outline the conditions and underlying processes of each type of LAC, and develop a theoretical framework that enables researchers to study LAC more systematically in the future. Compared with established theories of attitude change, the LAC framework focuses on lateral instead of focal attitude change and encompasses both generalization and displacement. Novel predictions and designs for studying LAC are presented. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  9. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  10. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  11. Managing Organizational Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kraft, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Sensegiving is a key leadership activity in times of organizational change. Leaders share their understanding of the change in an attempt to exert influence on employees’ sensemaking towards a preferred redefinition of the organizational reality. This dissertation investigates the context and process of leader sensegiving by outlining the moderators that affect the sensegiving process and the forms sensegiving takes in the different phases of a change process. Sensegiving ist eine wesentli...

  12. CHANGE HAS ARRIVED

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙佳慧

    2016-01-01

    The planet is warming at an alarming rate,and more concise data means that the effects can be better measured.Whether it’s building bridges in cities or preparing for floods in the countryside,the numbers are showing that the concern over climate change is no longer just handwringing.China has experienced noticeable climate change over the past century.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)

  13. Economics and changing lifestyles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbieri, R H

    1982-01-01

    The management and consumption of energy resources are undergoing radical change. That change is prompting reevaluation of traditional patterns of economic interaction; the roles of public participation in the political process. This article discusses the roots of the energy dilemma, the impact of energy on the decision-making process, social change, and energy policy formulation. The impact of this reevaluation on lifestyles and attitudes toward energy are also discussed. Efforts towards the search for a solution are presented.

  14. Climate change: against despair

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

  15. Intermediality and media change

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    This book is about intermediality as an approach to analysing and understanding media change. Intermediality and Media Change is critical of technological determinism that characterises 'new media discourse' about the ongoing digitalization, framed as a revolution and creating sharp contrasts between old and new media. Intermediality instead emphasises paying attention to continuities between media of all types and privileges a comparative perspective on technological changes in media over ti...

  16. DRIVERS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana SENDREA

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Organizational changes do not appear from nothing or by themselves. For any process of performing something, there are certain causes, and the process is the result of those factors. If there are no reasons to carry out a certain process or action, then logically there will not be need for that action. Because of the continuity of the organizational changes in the business life cycle, there will always be reasons for organizational changes. These forces are called sources of organizational change

  17. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  18. Developing Agents of Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dorr, Kirk

    2003-01-01

    ... a situation where the consequences of peacetime choices become irretrievable in war. This study addresses the role of professional military education in creating cultural change within the military...

  19. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  20. Leading change: 2--planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerridge, Joanna

    National initiatives have outlined the importance of involving frontline staff in service improvement, and the ability to influence and manage change has been identified as an essential skill for delivering new models of care. Nurses often have to take the lead in managing change in clinical practice. The second in a three-part series is designed to help nurses at all levels develop the knowledge and skills to function as change agents within their organisations. This article focuses on planning the change and dealing with resistance.

  1. Assessing dam development, land use conversion, and climate change pressures on tributary river flows and water quality of the Mekong's Tonle Sap basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, T. A.; Arias, M. E.; Oeurng, C.; Arnaiz, M.; Piman, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Tonle Sap Lake is Southeast Asia's most productive freshwater fishery, but the productivity of this valuable ecosystem is under threat from extensive development in the lower Mekong. With dams potentially blocking all major tributaries along the lower Mekong River, the role of local Tonle Sap basin tributaries for maintaining environmental flows, sediment loads, and fish recruitment is becoming increasingly critical. Development within the Tonle Sap basin, however, is not stagnant. Developers are proposing extensive dam development in key Tonle Sap tributaries (see Figure). Some dams will provide hydroelectricity and others will provide opportunities for large-scale irrigation resulting in agro-industrial expansion. There is thus an immediate need to assess the current situation and understand future effects of dam development and land use conversion under climate change on local riverine ecosystems. A combination of remote sensing, field visits, and hydro-meteorological data analyses enabled an assessment of water infrastructure and agricultural development in the basin. The application of SWAT for modelling flows and water quality combined with HEC-RESSIM for reservoir operations enabled for a holistic modelling approach. Initial results show that dams and land use change dominate flow and water quality responses, when compared to climate change. Large ongoing dam and irrigation development in the Pursat and Battambang subbasins will critically alter the natural river flows to the Tonle Sap Lake. Some of the observed dams did not have provisions for sediment flushing, clearing of flooded areas, fish passages, or other environmental protection measures. Poor planning and operation of this infrastructure could have dire consequences on the fragile riverine ecosystem of Tonle Sap tributaries, resulting in fish migration barriers, losses in aquatic habitats, and ecological degradation. The seemingly chaotic development in the Tonle Sap basin induces a great level

  2. Radical Change by Entrepreneurial Design

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roberts, Nancy C

    1998-01-01

    .... How radical change in public policy has occurred in the past is then documented. We find examples of radical change by chance, radical change by consensus, radical change by learning, and radical change by entrepreneurial design...

  3. Effects of climate change on groundwater: observed and forecasted trends on Italian systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doveri, Marco; Menichini, Matia; Provenzale, Antonello; Scozzari, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater represents the main source of water supply at global level. In Italy, as well as in most European countries, water needs are mainly covered by groundwater exploitation. The reliance on this resource is continuously growing, given the key role that groundwater plays for mitigating the climate change/variability and for addressing the significant increase in the global water demand. Despite this, and unlike surface waters, groundwater bodies have not been widely studied, and there is a general paucity of quantitative information, especially in relation to climate change. Although groundwater systems are more resilient to climate change than surface waters, they are affected both directly and indirectly. The estimation of the entity of these effects is mandatory for a reliable management of this crucial resource. The analysis of hydro-meteorological data over a few decades highlights that also the Italian territory is experiencing a change of the climate regime. Besides the increase of mean annual temperature, observed in particular since the early 1980s, longer and more frequent drought periods have been registered, as well as an increase of extreme events characterized by heavy rainfall. It is also noticeable a decrease in total rainfall, that is much more evident in the period from January to June. In addition to the reduced yearly inputs from precipitation, such trends determine also a lower snow accumulation and earlier snow melt in mountain areas, a general increase of evapotranspiration rates and an increased runoff fraction of the effective rainfall amount. As flood hydrographs of several major Italian rivers (e.g., Po, Brenta and Arno rivers) confirm, evident effects concern surface water resources. The main observed phenomena consist in the decline of mean annual discharge, the increase of extreme events with high discharge concentrated in short periods, and longer and earlier periods of low base flow. Impacts on groundwater recharge are not well

  4. The Change Masters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, Rosabeth Moss

    1984-01-01

    The change masters are identified as corporate managers who have the resources and the vision to effect an economic renaissance in the United States. Strategies for change should emphasize horizontal as well as vertical communication, and should reward enterprise and innovation at all levels. (JB)

  5. The Change Announcement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broillet, Alexandra; Barchilon, Marian; Kampf, Constance Elizabeth

    Shifting the focus in Change Management as a Field from the best way to send messages to the experience and understanding of the receivers offers a new direction that goes beyond a Management-centric perspective on Change Management Communication. To do this, we examine 61 interviews with employe...

  6. Water changed the cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elle, Morten; Jensen, Marina Bergen

    An improvement in water infrastructure and cleaning up the waters changed many harbour cities in Denmark at the beginning of the 90s. The harbour cities changed from drity, run-down industrial harbours to clean and attractive harbour dwelling creating new city centres and vital city areas...

  7. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  8. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandel, R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  9. Participation and institutional Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tofteng, Ditte Maria Børglum; Bladt, Mette; Madsen, Lisbeth

    ). Action research for educational change. Philadelphia, PA: Open University Press. Horton, Myles & P. Freire (1991): We make the road by walking. Conversations on education and social change: Temple University Marshall, J. (2001). Self-reflective inquiry practices. In P. Reason & H. Bradbury (Eds...

  10. Coping with Coastal Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nichols, Robert J.; Stive, Marcel J.F.; Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter focuses on how to cope with coastal change and its implications. There are two major types of response: mitigation representing source control of drivers, such as greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater withdrawal, and adaptation referring to behavioral changes that range from

  11. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  12. Dimensions of Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Bo; Nørreklit, Lennart; Jørgensen, Kenneth Mølbjerg

    The book is a contribution to the development of theory amd method on organisational change through interactions with people in organisations.......The book is a contribution to the development of theory amd method on organisational change through interactions with people in organisations....

  13. Continuity and Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Istance, David

    1985-01-01

    Examines issues related to continuity in education and educational change. Indicates that although schools must be responsive to changing social and economic conditions (and contribute to them), they must also be protected against fluctuating swings of educational fashion and safeguard their long-term mission, even when buffeted by short-term…

  14. Changing spaces for sports

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kural, René

    2010-01-01

    The author argues that the fundamental values associated with sports seem to have changed. Accordingly spaces for sports are also undergoing change.The essay gives a number of examples of these new sports spaces. Their common denominator lies in their urban proximity, the combination of previously...

  15. Irreversible social change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pols, A.J.K.; Romijn, H.A.; Collste, G.; Reuter, L.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we evaluate how irreversible social change should be evaluated from an ethical perspective. First; we analyse the notion of irreversibility in general terms. We define a general notion of what makes a change irreversible; drawing on discussions in ecology and economics. This notion is

  16. Migraine and brain changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meinders, I.H.

    2018-01-01

    This thesis describes the longitudinal population-based CAMERA-study on the association between migraine and brain changes (e.g. white matter hyperintensities, infarct-like and other lesions) and possible causes and consequences of those brain changes. Women with migraine showed higher incidence of

  17. Nail changes after carbamazepine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chopra Adarsh

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Antiepileptics are known to produce different types of side effects including nail changes. A 20-year-old epileptic man had yellowish discolouration followed by dystrophy and onycholysis of his 15 nails after taking carbamazepine for 3 months which cleared within six months after discontinuation of the drug. This type of change has not been reported earlier with carbamazepine

  18. Planning Major Curricular Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkland, Travis P.

    Decision-making and change models can take many forms. One researcher (Nordvall, 1982) has suggested five conceptual models for introducing change: a political model; a rational decision-making model; a social interaction decision model; the problem-solving method; and an adaptive/linkage model which is an amalgam of each of the other models.…

  19. Management of Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Shad

    2015-01-01

    Reexamination of change management strategies has recently come under direct scrutiny in both the realm of the academic and the professional due to the significant shift of brick-and-mortar institutions to virtual organizational structures. As such, the examination of the management of change requires direct inquiry into several defining factors:…

  20. Synopsis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

  1. Challenge and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehaffy, George L.

    2012-01-01

    In the past twenty years, various industries have been forever altered by technology: newspapers, book publishing, the photography business, and many more. Higher education too faces unprecedented challenges primarily driven by rapid changes in technology. To meet these challenges and adapt to these changes, new models are needed. Six challenges…

  2. Leading Educational Change Wisely

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrester, Gillian

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the author reviews Christopher Branson's book entitled "Leading Educational Change Wisely". The book provides an alternative and engaging perspective on leading educational change. Branson utilises "wisdom" as its central conceptual device to present a thought-provoking and philosophical account on how leaders are able to build a…

  3. Changing Environmentally Relevant Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudgion, T. J.; Thomas, M. Pugh

    1991-01-01

    Considered is the role of psychology in helping to change those human behaviors which have deleterious environmental effects. The foremost conclusion is that behavioral psychology can offer practical techniques for such change, yet there are indications that enduring behaviors may be better realized through the intrinsic motivation maintained by…

  4. Organisational Structure & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2006

    2006-01-01

    Structural change is seen as a way to meet the challenges of the future that face many organisations. While some writers agree that broad-ranging structural change may not always transform an organisation or enhance its performance, others claim that innovation will be a major source of competitive advantage to organisations, particularly when…

  5. Financing climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

  6. Helping for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuringer, Allen; Oleson, Kathryn C.

    2010-01-01

    In "Helping for Change," Allen Neuringer and Kathryn Oleson describe another strategy that individuals can use to achieve their green goals. You might ask, "How can helping someone else help me change when I'm in the habit of not fulfilling my own promises?" The authors answer that question by explaining how the social reinforcement in a helping…

  7. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  8. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  9. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  10. Accelerating the culture change!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klunk, S W; Panetta, J; Wooten, J

    1996-11-01

    Exide Electronics, a major supplier of uninterruptible power system equipment, embarked on a journey of changing a culture to improve quality, enhance customer responsiveness, and reduce costs. This case study examines the evolution of change over a period of seven years, with particular emphasis on the most recent years, 1992 through 1995. The article focuses on the Raleigh plant operations and describes how each succeeding year built on the successes and fixed the shortcomings of the prior years to accelerate the culture change, including corrective action and continuous improvement processes, organizational structures, expectations, goals, achievements, and pitfalls. The real challenge to changing the culture was structuring a dynamic approach to accelerate change! The presentation also examines how the evolutionary process itself can be created and accelerated through ongoing communication, regular feedback of progress and goals, constant evaluation and direction of the process, and measuring and paying for performance.

  11. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  12. Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Boxel, John H

    2001-01-01

    Precipitation is one of the most, if not the most important climate parameter In most studies on climate change the emphasis is on temperature and sea level rise. Often too little attention is given to precipitation. For a large part this is due to the large spatial en temporal variability of precipitation, which makes the detection of changes difficult. This paper describes methods to detect changes in precipitation. In order to arrive at statistically significant changes one must use long time series and spatial averages containing the information from several stations. In the Netherlands the average yearly precipitation increased by 11% during the 20th century .In the temperate latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere (40-60QN) the average increase was about 7% over the 20th century and the globally averaged precipitation increased by about 3%. During the 20th century 38% of the land surface of the earth became wetter, 42% experienced little change (less than 5% change) and 20% became dryer. More important than the average precipitation is the occurrence of extremes. In the Netherlands there is a tendency to more extreme precipitations, whereas the occurrence of relatively dry months has not changed. Also in many other countries increases in heavy precipitation events are observed. All climate models predict a further increase of mean global precipitation if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. Nevertheless some areas get dryer, others have little change and consequently there are also areas where the increase is much more than the global average. On a regional scale however there are large differences between the models. Climate models do not yet provide adequate information on changes in extreme precipitations

  13. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    " adaptation) or over a 30-year period centred around the date considered ("prospective" adaptation). These adaptation scenarios are translated into local-scale transient drought thresholds, as opposed to a non-adaptation scenario where the drought threshold remains constant. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics derived from the theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale mitigation. This study thus proposes a proof of concept for using standardized drought indices for (1) assessing projections of spatio-temporal drought characteristics and (2) building theoretical adaptation scenarios and associated perceived changes in hydrological impact studies (Vidal et al., submitted). Vidal J.-P., Martin E., Franchistéguy L., Habets F., Soubeyroux J.-M., Blanchard M. & Baillon M. (2010) Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 459-478.doi: 10.5194/hess-14-459-2010 Vidal J.-P., Martin E., Kitova N., Najac J. & Soubeyroux, J. M. (submitted) Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios. Submitted to Hydrology and earth System Sciences

  14. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  15. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  16. Technology and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.; Layzedl, D.; McLean, G.

    2002-01-01

    This paper was the major one of the opening plenary session at the Climate Change 2 conference. The paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. The paper focusses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of research interests

  17. Foreseen hydrological changes drive efforts to formulate water balance improvement measures as part of the management options of adaptation at Lake Balaton, Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Gabor; Kutics, Karoly

    2013-04-01

    Located in Western Hungary, Lake Balaton (LB) is one of the shallowest large lakes of the world. The catchment area including the lake is 5775 km2, only 10 times more than the lake surface area of 593 km2. This relatively small catchment area and the relatively dry climate results in high vulnerability of the lake water budget to any hydro-meteorological changes. Due to the combined effects of planned water quality protection measures (refer to adjoining article on LB water quality) water quality was not as serious a concern over the last 15 years. However, a new and potentially more damaging threat, decreasing water level started to emerge in 2000. The natural water budget was negative half of the time, i.e. 6 years in the last 12 years. It hadn't occurred in the previous 80 years, since 1921, the year from which detailed meteorological data on the area are available. This new phenomenon raised and continues to raise serious sustainability concerns in the Lake Balaton area requiring better understanding of climatic changes and their foreseen impacts on hydrological and ecological processes that would lead decision makers to formulate the appropriate vulnerability and adaptation policies. Based on the common methodologies of the EULAKES project, present state of the hydrological conditions was analyzed as well as qualitative vulnerability assessment carried out to the area. Using the climate scenarios developed by the project partner Austrian Institute of Technology, calculations on water budget changes was possible. It is estimated that by the middle of the 21st century the lake will experience a drastic drop in the inflow and, accompanied by the increased evaporation, it is likely that years without outflow and serious drops in water-level would occur. The increased frequency of unfavorable water deficit will cause not only ecological, but also socio-economic conflicts in the multipurpose usage of the lake. Therefore, a qualitative vulnerability assessment was

  18. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  19. The Chang'e 3 Mission Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunlai; Liu, Jianjun; Ren, Xin; Zuo, Wei; Tan, Xu; Wen, Weibin; Li, Han; Mu, Lingli; Su, Yan; Zhang, Hongbo; Yan, Jun; Ouyang, Ziyuan

    2015-07-01

    The Chang'e 3 (CE-3) mission was implemented as the first lander/rover mission of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program (CLEP). After its successful launch at 01:30 local time on December 2, 2013, CE-3 was inserted into an eccentric polar lunar orbit on December 6, and landed to the east of a 430 m crater in northwestern Mare Imbrium (19.51°W, 44.12°N) at 21:11 on December 14, 2013. The Yutu rover separated from the lander at 04:35, December 15, and traversed for a total of 0.114 km. Acquisition of science data began during the descent of the lander and will continue for 12 months during the nominal mission. The CE-3 lander and rover each carry four science instruments. Instruments on the lander are: Landing Camera (LCAM), Terrain Camera (TCAM), Extreme Ultraviolet Camera (EUVC), and Moon-based Ultraviolet Telescope (MUVT). The four instruments on the rover are: Panoramic Camera (PCAM), VIS-NIR Imaging Spectrometer (VNIS), Active Particle induced X-ray Spectrometer (APXS), and Lunar Penetrating Radar (LPR). The science objectives of the CE-3 mission include: (1) investigation of the morphological features and geological structures of and near the landing area; (2) integrated in-situ analysis of mineral and chemical composition of and near the landing area; and (3) exploration of the terrestrial-lunar space environment and lunar-based astronomical observations. This paper describes the CE-3 objectives and measurements that address the science objectives outlined by the Comprehensive Demonstration Report of Phase II of CLEP. The CE-3 team has archived the initial science data, and we describe data accessibility by the science community.

  20. Attitudes and Attitude Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albarracin, Dolores; Shavitt, Sharon

    2018-01-04

    This review covers research on attitudes and attitude change published between 2010 and 2017. We characterize this period as one of significant progress toward an understanding of how attitudes form and change in three critical contexts. The first context is the person, as attitudes change in connection to values, general goals, language, emotions, and human development. The second context is social relationships, which link attitude change to the communicator of persuasive messages, social media, and culture. The third context is sociohistorical and highlights the influence of unique events, including sociopolitical, economic, and climatic occurrences. In conclusion, many important recent findings reflect the fact that holism, with a focus on situating attitudes within their personal, social, and historical contexts, has become the zeitgeist of attitude research during this period.

  1. Celiac Disease Changes Everything

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Disease" Articles Celiac Disease Changes Everything / What is Celiac Disease? / Symptoms, Diagnosis and Treatment / Four Inches and Seven Pounds… / Learning to Live Well with Celiac Disease / Living Gluten-Free Spring 2015 Issue: Volume 10 ...

  2. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  3. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  4. Respect changes your life!

    CERN Document Server

    Alizée Dauvergne

    2010-01-01

    CERN has recently joined the Geneva-based association "Le respect, ça change la vie" (Respect can change our lives). As its name suggests, the association promotes respect, in all its forms. This decision will enable CERN to share some of its values, those it has in common with the association, with the community at large.   The new bilingual logo of the "Le respect ça change la vie" association. "CERN has been a member of the Geneva-based association "Le respect, ça change la vie" since March," says Friedemann Eder, Head of the Relations with the Host States Service. Mutual respect, respecting the differences and the work of others, respect on the road, in the family, at school, etc. The association, which was founded in 2003 and now has a large number of members, promotes this universal value and encourages discussion on it. "CERN's history shows the importance and success o...

  5. Biodiversity and global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Solbrig, Otto Thomas; Emden, H. M. van; Oordt, P. G. W. J. van; Solbrig, Otto T

    1992-01-01

    The IUBS symposium "Biodiversity and Global Change" held during the 24th General Assembly, 1-6 September, 1991, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, represented the first attempt to address the issue of bio...

  6. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  7. Computers: Instruments of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkume, Megan

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the impact of computers in the home, the school, and the workplace. Looks at changes in computer use by occupations and by industry. Provides information on new job titles in computer occupations. (JOW)

  8. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  9. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  10. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  11. Leading unplanned change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Jeanette Ives

    2014-03-01

    The article presents reflections on how Magnet® principles help nurse leaders through unplanned change using the 1-year anniversary of the Boston Marathon bombings and the response at Massachusetts General Hospital as an exemplar.

  12. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  13. Attitudes and attitude change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohner, Gerd; Dickel, Nina

    2011-01-01

    Attitudes and attitude change remain core topics of contemporary social psychology. This selective review emphasizes work published from 2005 to 2009. It addresses constructionist and stable-entity conceptualizations of attitude, the distinction between implicit and explicit measures of attitude, and implications of the foregoing for attitude change. Associative and propositional processes in attitude change are considered at a general level and in relation to evaluative conditioning. The role of bodily states and physical perceptions in attitude change is reviewed. This is followed by an integrative perspective on processing models of persuasion and the consideration of meta-cognitions in persuasion. Finally, effects of attitudes on information processing, social memory, and behavior are highlighted. Core themes cutting across the areas reviewed are attempts at integrative theorizing bringing together formerly disparate phenomena and viewpoints.

  14. Resisting Organizational Change

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Gunnar

    2015-01-01

    We are continuously reminded of how change induces controversy and resistance, regardless of support. We repeatedly experience resistance in difficulties of implementation, little progress, and poor results, rather than increased productivity as anticipated. In a detailed account of how change plays out, a mosaic of what resistance looks like emerges. The picture is both familiar and absolutely concrete, and challenges the structural assumptions and dichotomies on support and resistance in an...

  15. Changing quantum reference frames

    OpenAIRE

    Palmer, Matthew C.; Girelli, Florian; Bartlett, Stephen D.

    2013-01-01

    We consider the process of changing reference frames in the case where the reference frames are quantum systems. We find that, as part of this process, decoherence is necessarily induced on any quantum system described relative to these frames. We explore this process with examples involving reference frames for phase and orientation. Quantifying the effect of changing quantum reference frames serves as a first step in developing a relativity principle for theories in which all objects includ...

  16. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  17. How Change Happens

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Duncan

    2016-01-01

    Human society is full of would-be ‘change agents’, a restless mix of campaigners, lobbyists, and officials, both individuals and organizations, set on transforming the world. They want to improve public services, reform laws and regulations, guarantee human rights, get a fairer deal for those on the sharp end, achieve greater recognition for any number of issues, or simply be treated with respect. Striking then, that not many universities have a Department of Change Studies, to which social a...

  18. Responsibility and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jamieson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmat...

  19. Wine and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley; Storchmann, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this article we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition and yields, and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what ha...

  20. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)