WorldWideScience

Sample records for long-term landscape dynamics

  1. Long-term spatial dynamics of Succisa pratensis in a changing rural landscape: linking dynamical modeling with historical maps

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Herben, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana; Mildén, M.; Ehrlén, J.; Cousins, S.A.O.; Eriksson, O.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 94, - (2006), s. 131-143 ISSN 0022-0477 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD206/03/H137 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : spatial * dynamics * Succisa Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.239, year: 2006

  2. Climate-vegetation-fire interactions and their impact on long-term carbon dynamics in a boreal peatland landscape in northern Manitoba, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camill, Philip; Barry, Ann; Williams, Evie; Andreassi, Christian; Limmer, Jacob; Solick, Donald

    2009-12-01

    Climate warming may increase the size and frequency of fires in the boreal biome, possibly causing greater carbon release that amplifies warming. However, in peatlands, vegetation change may also control long-term fire and carbon accumulation, confounding simple relationships between climate, fire, and carbon accumulation. Using 17 peat cores dating to 8000 cal years B.P. from northern Manitoba, Canada, we addressed the following questions: (1) Do past climate changes correlate with shifts in peatland vegetation? (2) What is the relationship between peatland vegetation and fire severity? (3) What is the mean return interval for boreal peat fires, and how does it change across fires of different severities? (4) How does fire severity affect carbon accumulation rates? (5) Do fire and long-term carbon accumulation change directly in response to climate or indirectly though climate-driven changes in vegetation? We measured carbon accumulation rates, fire severity, and return intervals using macroscopic charcoal and changes in vegetation using macrofossils. Climate and vegetation changes covaried, with shifts from wetter fen to drier, forested bog communities during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). Fires became more severe following the shift to forested bogs, with fire severity peaking after 4000 cal years B.P. rather than during the HTM. Rising fire severity, in turn, was correlated with a significant decrease in carbon accumulation from ˜6000 to 2000 cal years B.P. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age affected vegetation composition and permafrost, further impacting fire and carbon accumulation. Our results indicate that long-term changes in fire and carbon dynamics are mediated by climate-driven changes in vegetation.

  3. What Should Stay Put? Campus Landscape Planning for the Long Term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahres, Mike Van

    2000-01-01

    Discusses campus landscape long-term planning and design decision making during campus alterations and upgrades. Those campus landscape elements that tend to remain in place and planning for their continued existence are discussed. (GR)

  4. Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

    This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

  5. The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Nabe-Nielsen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis, vole (Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. SIGNIFICANCE: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations

  6. Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

  7. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  8. Simulation of long-term dynamic behavior of runaway electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yulei; Liu Jian; Zhang Ruili; He Yang

    2015-01-01

    The secular dynamics of runaway electrons in Tokamak electromagnetic field is studied. The radiation effect is added into a relativistic volume-preserving algorithm to gain long-term stability of calculation. The results shows that the method we used is able to reveal the behavior of a runaway electron in configuration space. (author)

  9. Long Term Incentives for Residential Customers Using Dynamic Tariff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews several grid tariff schemes, including flat tariff, time-of-use, time-varying tariff, demand charge and dynamic tariff (DT), from the perspective of the long term incentives. The long term incentives can motivate the owners of flexible demands to change their energy consumption...... behavior in such a way that the power system operation issues, such as system balance and congestion, can be alleviated. From the comparison study, including analysis and case study, the DT scheme outperforms the other tariff schemes in terms of cost saving and network operation condition improving....

  10. Forest landscape models, a tool for understanding the effect of the large-scale and long-term landscape processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Robert E. Keane; Louis R. Iverson

    2008-01-01

    Forest landscape models have become important tools for understanding large-scale and long-term landscape (spatial) processes such as climate change, fire, windthrow, seed dispersal, insect outbreak, disease propagation, forest harvest, and fuel treatment, because controlled field experiments designed to study the effects of these processes are often not possible (...

  11. Long-term sustainability of the landscape in new climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubeckova, D.; Krocova, S.

    2017-10-01

    The long-term sustainability of the landscape and its natural environment must be the decisive task of the public administration and, in the wider concept, of every citizen. In new climatic conditions, this need has intensified. The following article suggests in a basic scope whether the above-mentioned task can be accomplished, and what means of solution should be used.

  12. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... supply and sustained sub- zero temperatures are essential to develop fractures in porous rocks (e.g. Murton, 2006), but the cracking efficiency for harder rock types under natural conditions is less clear. However, based on experimental results for porous rocks, Hales and Roering (2007) proposed a model...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...

  13. Modeling the Long-term Transport and Accumulation of Radionuclides in the Landscape for Derivation of Dose Conversion Factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, Rodolfo Moreno; Ekstroem, Per-Anders; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2006-01-01

    To evaluate the radiological impact of potential releases to the biosphere from a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is necessary to assess the long-term dynamics of the distribution of radionuclides in the environment. In this paper, we propose an approach for making prognoses of the distribution and fluxes of radionuclides released from the geosphere, in discharges of contaminated groundwater, to an evolving landscape. The biosphere changes during the temperate part (spanning approximately 20,000 years) of an interglacial period are handled by building biosphere models for the projected succession of situations. Radionuclide transport in the landscape is modeled dynamically with a series of interconnected radioecological models of those ecosystem types (sea, lake, running water, mire, agricultural land and forest) that occur at present, and are projected to occur in the future, in a candidate area for a geological repository in Sweden. The transformation between ecosystems is modeled as discrete events occurring every thousand years by substituting one model by another. Examples of predictions of the radionuclide distribution in the landscape are presented for several scenarios with discharge locations varying in time and space. The article also outlines an approach for estimating the exposure of man resulting from all possible reasonable uses of a potentially contaminated landscape, which was used for derivation of Landscape Dose Factors

  14. Modelling the long-term vertical dynamics of salt marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoccarato, Claudia; Teatini, Pietro

    2017-04-01

    Salt marshes are vulnerable environments hosting complex interactions between physical and biological processes with a strong influence on the dynamics of the marsh evolution. The estimation and prediction of the elevation of a salt-marsh platform is crucial to forecast the marsh growth or regression under different scenarios considering, for example, the potential climate changes. The long-term vertical dynamics of a salt marsh is predicted with the aid of an original finite-element (FE) numerical model accounting for the marsh accretion and compaction and for the variation rates of the relative sea level rise, i.e., land subsidence of the marsh basement and eustatic rise of the sea level. The accretion term considers the vertical sedimentation of organic and inorganic material over the marsh surface, whereas the compaction reflects the progressive consolidation of the porous medium under the increasing load of the overlying younger deposits. The modelling approach is based on a 2D groundwater flow simulator, which provides the pressure evolution within a compacting/accreting vertical cross-section of the marsh assuming that the groundwater flow obeys the relative Darcy's law, coupled to a 1D vertical geomechanical module following Terzaghi's principle of effective intergranular stress. Soil porosity, permeability, and compressibility may vary with the effective intergranular stress according to empirically based relationships. The model also takes into account the geometric non-linearity arising from the consideration of large solid grain movements by using a Lagrangian approach with an adaptive FE mesh. The element geometry changes in time to follow the deposit consolidation and the element number increases in time to follow the sedimentation of new material. The numerical model is tested on different realistic configurations considering the influence of (i) the spatial distribution of the sedimentation rate in relation to the distance from the marsh margin, (ii

  15. Rural Districts between Urbanization and Land Abandonment: Undermining Long-Term Changes in Mediterranean Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Zambon

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates changes in the rural landscapes of a Mediterranean country (Greece over a long time period (1970–2015 encompassing economic expansions and recessions. Using a spatial distribution of 5 basic agricultural land-use classes (arable land, garden crop, vineyards, tree crop and fallow land derived from official statistics at 6 years (1970, 1979, 1988, 1997, 2006, 2015, a quantitative analysis based on correlation and multivariate techniques was carried out to identify recent changes in the Greek agricultural landscape at prefectural level during different economic waves. Empirical results evidenced both intuitive and counter-intuitive landscape transformations, including: (i a progressive, spatially-homogeneous reduction of cropland; (ii a (more or less rapid decrease in the surface of high-input crops, including arable land, horticulture and vineyards; (iii a parallel increase in the surface of tree crops, especially olive; (iv a spatially-heterogeneous decrease of fallow land concentrated in metropolitan and tourism districts, especially in the last decade; and, finally, (v increasingly diversified landscapes in rural, accessible areas close to the sea coast. Based on a correlation analysis with background socioeconomic indicators, our findings reflect the multiple impacts of urbanization and land abandonment on the composition and diversity of rural landscapes. Changes in agricultural land-use were moulded by multiple drivers depending on latent transformations in rural systems and inherent conflicts with expanding urban regions. Together with market conditions and the Common Agricultural Policy subsidy regime, social contexts and the economic cycle are important when identifying long-term changes in agricultural landscapes, especially in transitional socio-ecological systems.

  16. The Importance of Landscape Structure for the Long-Term Conservation of Species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M; Forchhammer, Mads C.

    population recovery was affected by landscape structure for four species in an agricultural landscape: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). We characterized population persistence based on equilibrium population sizes...... (K) and the time it took populations to recover from perturbations. We separated the effects of corridors and patch arrangement by comparing results from a real landscape with results from two virtual landscapes: One where linear corridors were removed by homogenizing patch shapes, while leaving...... the spatial arrangement of the patches unaltered, and one where patches were shuffled around, while still leaving the landscape composition unaltered. Patch arrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on population dynamics for species whose local success depended on the identity...

  17. From basalts to badlands : modelling long-term landscape response to lava damming of an upland catchment in western Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorp, van W.

    2014-01-01

    Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers (tectonics, climate, local base level) on long term catchment evolution. In this thesis, field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling are combined to

  18. Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M.

    1984-01-01

    The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

  19. Long-Term Human Induced Impacts on Marajó Island Landscapes, Amazon Estuary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Schaan

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Archaeology is a discipline that can offer a long term perspective on the impacts human societies have had on the environment. Landscape studies are critical for understanding these impacts, because they embrace a dialectical view regarding the relationship between humans and their immediate surroundings. Such studies are well suited to the Amazon basin, a region that has driven much media attention due to astonishing rates of deforestation in certain areas, with likely consequences on the planet’s climate, posing challenges to the survival of the human species for the coming decades. In fact, although much has been said about the impacts of contemporary societies on tropical forest environments, ancient landscape management practices have not yet been considered part of the equation. Thus far, we know that Amerindian societies have been actively transforming their surroundings for millennia. On the eve of European contact, large, complex societies were bringing about long-lasting transformations of landscapes throughout the basin. Conquest and colonization resulted in epidemics, enslavement, and changes to the indigenous economies that managed to survive the genocide. Afterwards, as colonizers would exploit traditional resources leading, in many instances, to their exhaustion, a huge quantity of information on sustainable ways of dealing with certain environments became lost. Traditional knowledge, however, still survives among certain indigenous, peasant (caboclo, and African-Brazilian populations. Documentation of surviving management practices together with the study of the archaeological record could provide valuable information for policy makers. This article examines historical transformations that took place on Marajó Island during the last two millennia and advocates the importance of archaeological research for understanding the historical ecology of landscape change. It is argued that ancient economic strategies, some still being

  20. The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

    1999-01-01

    The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

  1. Long-term dynamics of the hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius and its relationship with vegetation structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ameloot, Els; Verheyen, Kris; Bakker, Jan P.; De Vries, Yzaak; Hermy, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Questions: 1. How are the long-term dynamics of the root hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius related to vegetation structure, grassland management and climate? 2. Does R. angustifolius have a long-term impact on standing crop and community composition? Location: A formerly fertilized grassland,

  2. Long-term Evaluation of Landuse Changes On Landscape Water Balance - A Case Study From North-east Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegehenkel, M.

    In this paper, long-term effects of different afforestation scenarios on landscape wa- ter balance will be analyzed taking into account the results of a regional case study. This analysis is based on using a GIS-coupled simulation model for the the spatially distributed calculation of water balance.For this purpose, the modelling system THE- SEUS with a simple GIS-interface will be used. To take into account the special case of change in forest cover proportion, THESEUS was enhanced with a simple for- est growth model. In the regional case study, model runs will be performed using a detailed spatial data set from North-East Germany. This data set covers a mesoscale catchment located at the moraine landscape of North-East Germany. Based on this data set, the influence of the actual landuse and of different landuse change scenarios on water balance dynamics will be investigated taking into account the spatial distributed modelling results from THESEUS. The model was tested using different experimen- tal data sets from field plots as well as obsverded catchment discharge. Additionally to such convential validation techniques, remote sensing data were used to check the simulated regional distribution of water balance components like evapotranspiration in the catchment.

  3. Testing resiliency of hydrologic dynamics of a paired forested watershed after a hurricane in Atlantic coastal plain using long-term data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra Amatya; Herbert Ssegane; Charles Andy Harrison; Carl Trettin

    2016-01-01

    Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes, including streamflow and evapotranspiration dynamics in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. However, literature on hurricane effects on long-term streamflow dynamics is lacking in this highly urbanizing region characterized by a poorly drained low-gradient forested landscape.

  4. Insights from the past: incorporating long-term landscape evolution in studies of land degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro-Vazquez, Cruz; Lang, Carol; Kabora, Tabitha; Thornton-Barnett, Senna; Richer, Suzi; Gallello, Gianni; Stump, Daryl

    2017-04-01

    Modern approaches for assessing land degradation encompass multidisciplinary studies that have allowed a more realistic understanding of the causes and consequences of land degradation. This incipient perspective includes an increasingly important role of the studies of the past, including human history, to understand modern ecosystems and landscapes. Indeed, the current promotion of indigenous resource-use strategies as models of sustainable development was initially prompted by historical studies. However, systematic studies on whether or not indigenous management practices led to land degradation, and therefore their benefits or constraints for sustained use of natural resources, are not truly known. We argue that a joint approach combining the characterization of current soil properties with the archaeological study of traditional agricultural systems can provide insights on their sustainability. Archaeological excavation enables discerning the order in which sediments are deposited and the sequence in which structures are built. This provides data on coincident cultural and ecological change, and a long-term perspective on how agro-ecological systems operated in pre-modern states and the ways in which they resemble or differ from modern contexts. Simultaneously, these changes would have left a physical, chemical and isotopic imprint in soils that can be detected and interpreted to contribute to the production of a "usable past" (Stump, 2013). The premise is: since ancient agricultural sites may provide information on agronomic conditions after centuries to millennia of use, they can help in understanding the ways in which agroecosystems have survived, failed or adapted in the past. This will contribute to a better holistic understanding of social-ecological systems evolution by including a temporal perspective, and to a more nuanced assessment of land degradation and sustainable use. To illustrate this we present the outcome of our research at two traditional

  5. Long-Term Forest Dynamics and Land-Use Abandonment in the Mediterranean Mountains, Corsica, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Almudena San Roman Sanz

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Human practices have had an impact on Mediterranean ecosystems for millennia, particularly through agricultural and pastoral activities. Since the mid-19th century, land-use abandonment has led to the expansion of shrubland and forest, especially in the mountainous areas of the northern Mediterranean basin. Knowledge of these factors is vital to understanding present forest patterns and predicting future forest dynamics in the Mediterranean mountains. We aimed to analyze and understand how land-use abandonment affected spatial modifications of landscapes in two study areas, 44,000 ha and 60,000 ha, located on the island of Corsica, France, representing a typical Mediterranean environment with chestnut forests. Our approach used land-cover archive documents from 1774, 1913, 1975, and 2000, and human population history, 1770 to present day, to describe landscape patterns following land-use abandonment. This research showed that dramatic changes in landscape at the two study areas were caused by the suspension of human influence and the interruption of traditional farming practices. Over the study period, both study sites showed significant reforestation of shrubland and cultivated areas marked by the presence of Quercus ilex forests (+3.40% yr-1 between 1975 and 2000 and by Pinus pinaster (+3.00% yr-1 between 1975 and 2000 at one study site that had experienced heavy rural exodus. At the same time, areas containing chestnut forests decreased by 50% between 1774 and 2000 (-0.09% yr-1 between 1774 and 1975 and -1.42% yr-1 between 1975 and 2000. Shrubland expansion remained limited at both study sites. Our study highlights the value of small-scale approaches for understanding the ecological consequences of land-use abandonment and present and future land-management decisions. Discussion concludes on the importance of working with long-term series for studies on resilience in social-ecological systems and on the consequences in terms of provision of

  6. Long-term mercury dynamics in UK soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tipping, E.; Wadsworth, R.A.; Norris, D.A.; Hall, J.R.; Ilyin, I.

    2011-01-01

    A model assuming first-order losses by evasion and leaching was used to evaluate Hg dynamics in UK soils since 1850. Temporal deposition patterns of Hg were constructed from literature information. Inverse modelling indicated that 30% of 898 rural sites receive Hg only from the global circulation, while in 51% of cases local deposition exceeds global. Average estimated deposition is 16 μg Hg m -2 a -1 to rural soils, 19 μg Hg m -2 a -1 to rural and non-rural soils combined. UK soils currently hold 2490 tonnes of reactive Hg, of which 2140 tonnes are due to anthropogenic deposition, mostly local in origin. Topsoil currently releases 5.1 tonnes of Hg 0 per annum to the atmosphere, about 50% more than the anthropogenic flux. Sorptive retention of Hg in the lower soil exerts a strong control on surface water Hg concentrations. Following decreases in inputs, soil Hg concentrations are predicted to decline over hundreds of years. - Highlights: → Spatial data for mercury in UK soils can be related to past atmospheric deposition. → The residence time of Hg (c. 400 years) depends on gaseous evasion and leaching. → UK soils currently contribute more Hg 0 to the atmosphere than human activities. → Sorption of Hg by deeper soil is a strong control on surface water concentrations. - Atmospherically-deposited anthropogenic mercury, mostly of local origin, has accumulated in UK soils, and is now a significant source of Hg 0 to the global circulation.

  7. Long-term mercury dynamics in UK soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tipping, E., E-mail: et@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Wadsworth, R.A. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Norris, D.A.; Hall, J.R. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2UW (United Kingdom); Ilyin, I. [Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East, Krasina pereulok, 16/1, 123056 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2011-12-15

    A model assuming first-order losses by evasion and leaching was used to evaluate Hg dynamics in UK soils since 1850. Temporal deposition patterns of Hg were constructed from literature information. Inverse modelling indicated that 30% of 898 rural sites receive Hg only from the global circulation, while in 51% of cases local deposition exceeds global. Average estimated deposition is 16 {mu}g Hg m{sup -2} a{sup -1} to rural soils, 19 {mu}g Hg m{sup -2} a{sup -1} to rural and non-rural soils combined. UK soils currently hold 2490 tonnes of reactive Hg, of which 2140 tonnes are due to anthropogenic deposition, mostly local in origin. Topsoil currently releases 5.1 tonnes of Hg{sup 0} per annum to the atmosphere, about 50% more than the anthropogenic flux. Sorptive retention of Hg in the lower soil exerts a strong control on surface water Hg concentrations. Following decreases in inputs, soil Hg concentrations are predicted to decline over hundreds of years. - Highlights: > Spatial data for mercury in UK soils can be related to past atmospheric deposition. > The residence time of Hg (c. 400 years) depends on gaseous evasion and leaching. > UK soils currently contribute more Hg{sup 0} to the atmosphere than human activities. > Sorption of Hg by deeper soil is a strong control on surface water concentrations. - Atmospherically-deposited anthropogenic mercury, mostly of local origin, has accumulated in UK soils, and is now a significant source of Hg{sup 0} to the global circulation.

  8. Surviving in Changing Seascapes: Sediment Dynamics as Bottleneck for Long-Term Seagrass Presence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suykerbuyk, W.; Bouma, T.J.; Govers, L.L.; Giesen, K.; de Jong, D.J.; Herman, P.M.J.; Hendriks, J.; van Katwijk, M.M.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in the seascape often result in altered hydrodynamics that lead to coinciding changes in sediment dynamics. Little is known on how altered sediment dynamics affect long-term seagrass persistence. We studied the thresholds of sediment dynamics in relation to seagrass presence by comparing

  9. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  10. Long-term landscape changes in a subalpine spruce-fir forest in central Utah, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse L. Morris1

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: In Western North America, increasing wildfire and outbreaks of native bark beetles have been mediated by warming climate conditions. Bioclimatic models forecast the loss of key high elevation species throughout the region. This study uses retrospective vegetation and fire history data to reconstruct the drivers of past disturbance and environmental change. Understanding the relationship among climate, antecedent disturbances, and the legacy effects of settlement-era logging can help identify the patterns and processes that create landscapes susceptible to bark beetle epidemics. Methods: Our analysis uses data from lake sediment cores, stand inventories, and historical records. Sediment cores were dated with radiometric techniques (14C and 210Pb/137Cs and subsampled for pollen and charcoal to maximize the temporal resolution during the historical period (1800 CE to present and to provide environmental baseline data (last 10,500 years. Pollen data for spruce were calibrated to carbon biomass (C t/ha using standard allometric equations and a transfer function. Charcoal samples were analyzed with statistical models to facilitate peak detection and determine fire recurrence intervals. Results: The Wasatch Plateau has been dominated by Engelmann spruce forests for the last ~10,500 years, with subalpine fir becoming more prominent since 6000 years ago. This landscape has experienced a dynamic fire regime, where burning events are more frequent and of higher magnitude during the last 3000 years. Two important disturbances have impacted Engelmann spruce in the historical period: 1 high-grade logging during the late 19th century; and (2 a high severity spruce beetle outbreak in the late 20th century that killed >90 % of mature spruce (>10 cm dbh. Conclusions: Our study shows that spruce-dominated forests in this region are resilient to a range of climate and disturbance regimes. Several lines of evidence suggest that 19th century logging

  11. Imaging groundwater infiltration dynamics in the karst vadose zone with long-term ERT monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watlet, Arnaud; Kaufmann, Olivier; Triantafyllou, Antoine; Poulain, Amaël; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Meldrum, Philip I.; Wilkinson, Paul B.; Hallet, Vincent; Quinif, Yves; Van Ruymbeke, Michel; Van Camp, Michel

    2018-03-01

    Water infiltration and recharge processes in karst systems are complex and difficult to measure with conventional hydrological methods. In particular, temporarily saturated groundwater reservoirs hosted in the vadose zone can play a buffering role in water infiltration. This results from the pronounced porosity and permeability contrasts created by local karstification processes of carbonate rocks. Analyses of time-lapse 2-D geoelectrical imaging over a period of 3 years at the Rochefort Cave Laboratory (RCL) site in south Belgium highlight variable hydrodynamics in a karst vadose zone. This represents the first long-term and permanently installed electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring in a karst landscape. The collected data were compared to conventional hydrological measurements (drip discharge monitoring, soil moisture and water conductivity data sets) and a detailed structural analysis of the local geological structures providing a thorough understanding of the groundwater infiltration. Seasonal changes affect all the imaged areas leading to increases in resistivity in spring and summer attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration, whereas winter is characterised by a general decrease in resistivity associated with a groundwater recharge of the vadose zone. Three types of hydrological dynamics, corresponding to areas with distinct lithological and structural features, could be identified via changes in resistivity: (D1) upper conductive layers, associated with clay-rich soil and epikarst, showing the highest variability related to weather conditions; (D2) deeper and more resistive limestone areas, characterised by variable degrees of porosity and clay contents, hence showing more diffuse seasonal variations; and (D3) a conductive fractured zone associated with damped seasonal dynamics, while showing a great variability similar to that of the upper layers in response to rainfall events. This study provides detailed images of the sources of drip

  12. Imaging groundwater infiltration dynamics in the karst vadose zone with long-term ERT monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Watlet

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Water infiltration and recharge processes in karst systems are complex and difficult to measure with conventional hydrological methods. In particular, temporarily saturated groundwater reservoirs hosted in the vadose zone can play a buffering role in water infiltration. This results from the pronounced porosity and permeability contrasts created by local karstification processes of carbonate rocks. Analyses of time-lapse 2-D geoelectrical imaging over a period of 3 years at the Rochefort Cave Laboratory (RCL site in south Belgium highlight variable hydrodynamics in a karst vadose zone. This represents the first long-term and permanently installed electrical resistivity tomography (ERT monitoring in a karst landscape. The collected data were compared to conventional hydrological measurements (drip discharge monitoring, soil moisture and water conductivity data sets and a detailed structural analysis of the local geological structures providing a thorough understanding of the groundwater infiltration. Seasonal changes affect all the imaged areas leading to increases in resistivity in spring and summer attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration, whereas winter is characterised by a general decrease in resistivity associated with a groundwater recharge of the vadose zone. Three types of hydrological dynamics, corresponding to areas with distinct lithological and structural features, could be identified via changes in resistivity: (D1 upper conductive layers, associated with clay-rich soil and epikarst, showing the highest variability related to weather conditions; (D2 deeper and more resistive limestone areas, characterised by variable degrees of porosity and clay contents, hence showing more diffuse seasonal variations; and (D3 a conductive fractured zone associated with damped seasonal dynamics, while showing a great variability similar to that of the upper layers in response to rainfall events. This study provides detailed images of

  13. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  14. Crop rotations and poultry litter impact dynamic soil chemical properties and soil biota long-term

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dynamic soil physiochemical interactions with conservation agricultural practices and soil biota are largely unknown. Therefore, this study aims to quantify long-term (12-yr) impacts of cover crops, poultry litter, crop rotations, and conservation tillage and their interactions on soil physiochemica...

  15. Patient Specific Characteristic of Brain Dynamic in Interpretation of Long Term EEG Analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Komárek, V.; Paluš, Milan; Hrnčíř, Z.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 45, Suppl. 3 (2004), s. 51 ISSN 0013-9580. [European Congress on Epileptology /6./. 30.05.2004-03.06.2004, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 701 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1030915 Keywords : brain dynamic * long term EEG analysis Subject RIV: FH - Neurology

  16. Synaptic scaling enables dynamically distinct short- and long-term memory formation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Tetzlaff

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling - a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis - combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes.

  17. Synaptic scaling enables dynamically distinct short- and long-term memory formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tetzlaff, Christian; Kolodziejski, Christoph; Timme, Marc; Tsodyks, Misha; Wörgötter, Florentin

    2013-10-01

    Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling - a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis - combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes.

  18. Interpreting landscape change in high mountains of northeastern Oregon from long-term repeat photography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jon M. Skovlin; Gerald S. Strickler; Jesse L. Peterson; Arthur W. Sampson

    2001-01-01

    We compared 45 photographs taken before 1925 to photographs taken as late as 1999 and documented landscape changes above 5,000 feet elevation in the Wallowa, Elkhorn, and Greenhorn Mountains of northeastern Oregon. We noted the following major changes from these comparisons: (1) the expansion of subalpine fir into mountain grasslands, (2) the invasion of moist and wet...

  19. Long-term Health and Socioeconomic Impacts of Landscape Fire Emissions in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Marlier, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Among natural disasters, wildfires are perhaps the most complex case of a coupled human-natural system, with both direct and indirect costs to society. A major contributor to these indirect costs is the impact upon health in the short- and long-term. Air pollution from fires is associated with more deaths from cardio-pulmonary diseases, yet little or no research has looked beyond the short-term mortality and morbidity associated with wildfire pollution, particularly in developing countries where impacts may be greatest but monitoring presents a constant challenge. We address this by using an interdisciplinary approach combining modeled air pollution with econometric methods to identify the long-term effects of air pollution on health and cognitive ability. These impacts will persist in society, and can lead to decreased education, loss of earnings, and a suppression of economic activity. We take the case of Indonesia, which is prone to large, catastrophic fires during El Niño conditions. Satellite data partially compensate for the lack of monitoring data for air pollution, but there are still significant gaps in data availability and difficulty in retrieving surface concentrations. In this study, surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations at 2x2.5° resolution are obtained from GISS-E2-Puccini (the new version of the NASA GISS ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM)), run with monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). 24-hour ambient PM2.5 concentrations across Indonesia are matched to geographically and socioeconomic surveys. We find that exposure to high levels of PM2.5 at birth (and in utero) has negative impacts upon physical development of infants. This is associated with health problems later in life, as well as lower educational and labor market outcomes. A one standard deviation increase in ambient air pollution exposure leads to effects comparable to those from indoor air pollution. We also find a

  20. Modified forest rotation lengths: Long-term effects on landscape-scale habitat availability for specialized species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2018-03-15

    We evaluated the long-term implications from modifying rotation lengths in production forests for four forest-reliant species with different habitat requirements. By combining simulations of forest development with habitat models, and accounting both for stand and landscape scale influences, we projected habitat availability over 150 years in a large Swedish landscape, using rotation lengths which are longer (+22% and +50%) and shorter (-22%) compared to current practices. In terms of mean habitat availability through time, species requiring older forest were affected positively by extended rotations, and negatively by shortened rotations. For example, the mean habitat area for the treecreeper Certhia familiaris (a bird preferring forest with larger trees) increased by 31% when rotations were increased by 22%, at a 5% cost to net present value (NPV) and a 7% decrease in harvested volume. Extending rotation lengths by 50% provided more habitat for this species compared to a 22% extension, but at a much higher marginal cost. In contrast, the beetle Hadreule elongatula, which is dependent on sun-exposed dead wood, benefited from shortened rather than prolonged rotations. Due to an uneven distribution of stand-ages within the landscape, the relative amounts of habitat provided by different rotation length scenarios for a given species were not always consistent through time during the simulation period. If implemented as a conservation measure, prolonging rotations will require long-term strategic planning to avoid future bottlenecks in habitat availability, and will need to be accompanied by complementary measures accounting for the diversity of habitats necessary for the conservation of forest biodiversity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean surface layer (by space data)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevyrnogov, A.; Vysotskaya, G.

    To preserve the biosphere and to use it efficiently, it is necessary to gain a deep insight into the dynamics of the primary production process on our planet. Variability of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean is one of the most important components of this process. These investigations are, however, very labor-consuming, because of the difficulties related to the accessibility of the water surface and its large size. In this work long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration in the surface layer of the ocean have been analyzed on the basis of the CZCS data for 7.5 years from 1979 to 1986 and the SeaWiFS data from 1997 to 2004. It has been shown that the average chlorophyll concentration calculated in all investigated areas varies moderately. However, when analyzing spatially local trends, the areas have been detected that have significant rise and fall of chlorophyll concentrations. Some interesting features of the long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration have been found. The opposite directions of long-term trends (essential increase or decrease) cannot be explained only by large-scale hydrological phenomena in the ocean (currents, upwellings, etc.). The measured chlorophyll concentration results from the balance between production and destruction processes. Which process dominates is determined by various hydrophysical, hydrobiological, and climatic processes, leading to sharp rises or falls of the concentration. It is important to estimate the scale of the areas in which this or that process dominates. Therefore, the study addresses not only the dynamics of the mean value but also the dynamics of the areas in which the dominance of certain factors has led to a sharp fall or rise in chlorophyll concentration. Thus, the obtained results can be used to estimate long-term changes in the ocean biota.

  2. Dynamic and Long-term Linkages among Growth, Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Katsushi S. Imai; Raghav Gaiha

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Drawing upon a cross-country panel data for developing countries, the present study sheds new empirical light on dynamic and long-term linkages among growth, inequality and poverty. First, agricultural sector growth is found to be consistently the most important factor in reducing inequality and poverty not only through its direct effects but also through its indirect effects. Second, there is a significant and negative association between inequality and GDP per capita, with macro in...

  3. How long-term dynamics of sediment subduction controls short-term dynamics of seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brizzi, S.; van Zelst, I.; van Dinther, Y.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.

    2017-12-01

    Most of the world's greatest earthquakes occur along the subduction megathrust. Weak and porous sediments have been suggested to homogenize the plate interface and thereby promote lateral rupture propagation and great earthquakes. However, the importance of sediment thickness, let alone their physical role, is not yet unequivocally established. Based on a multivariate statistical analysis of a global database of 62 subduction segments, we confirm that sediment thickness is one of the key parameters controlling the maximum magnitude a megathrust can generate. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations highlighted that the occurrence of great earthquakes on sediment-rich subduction segments is very unlikely (p-value≪0.05) related to pure chance. To understand how sediments in the subduction channel regulate earthquake size, this study extends and demystifies multivariate, spatiotemporally limited data through numerical modeling. We use the 2D Seismo-Thermo-Mechanical modeling approach to simulate both the long- and short-term dynamics of subduction and related seismogenesis (van Dinther et al., JGR, 2013). These models solve for the conservation of mass, momentum and energy using a visco-elasto-plastic rheology with rate-dependent friction. Results show that subducted sediments have a strong influence on the long-term evolution of the convergent margin. Increasing the sediment thickness on the incoming plate from 0 to 6 km causes a decrease of slab dip from 23° to 10°. This, in addition to increased radiogenic heating, extends isotherms, thereby widening the seismogenic portion of the megathrust from 80 to 150 km. Consequently, over tens of thousands of years, we observe that the maximum moment magnitude of megathrust earthquakes increases from 8.2 to 9.2 for these shallower and warmer interfaces. In addition, we observe more and larger splay faults, which could enhance vertical seafloor displacements. These results highlight the primary role of subducted sediments in

  4. Short- and long-term variations in non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to investigate the short- and long-term variations in the non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability, and to determine the relationships between conventional time and frequency domain methods and the newer non-linear methods of characterizing heart rate...... rate and describes mainly linear correlations. Non-linear predictability is correlated with heart rate variability measured as the standard deviation of the R-R intervals and the respiratory activity expressed as power of the high-frequency band. The dynamics of heart rate variability changes suddenly...

  5. Long-term changes of small mammal communities in heterogenous landscapes of Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zárybnická, M.; Riegert, J.; Bejček, V.; Sedláček, F.; Šťastný, K.; Šindelář, J.; Heroldová, M.; Vilímová, J.; Zima, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 6 (2017), č. článku 89. ISSN 1612-4642 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Habitat diversity * Population dynamics * Community structure * Small mammal * Weather * Masting Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 1.264, year: 2016

  6. Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert

    2016-01-01

    Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

  7. Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert; Michaelevski, Izhak

    2016-02-01

    Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

  8. Long-term social dynamics drive loss of function in pathogenic bacteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breum Andersen, Sandra; Marvig, Rasmus Lykke; Molin, Søren

    2015-01-01

    Laboratory experiments show that social interactions between bacterial cells can drive evolutionary change at the population level, but significant challenges limit attempts to assess the relevance of these findings to natural populations, where selection pressures are unknown. We have increasingly...... sophisticated methods for monitoring phenotypic and genotypic dynamics in bacteria causing infectious disease, but in contrast, we lack evidence-based adaptive explanations for those changes. Evolutionary change during infection is often interpreted as host adaptation, but this assumption neglects to consider...... social dynamics shown to drive evolutionary change in vitro. We provide evidence to show that long-term behavioral dynamics observed in a pathogen are driven by selection to outcompete neighboring conspecific cells through social interactions. We find that Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteria, causing lung...

  9. Short- and long-term evolutionary dynamics of bacterial insertion sequences: insights from Wolbachia endosymbionts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerveau, Nicolas; Leclercq, Sébastien; Leroy, Elodie; Bouchon, Didier; Cordaux, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Transposable elements (TE) are one of the major driving forces of genome evolution, raising the question of the long-term dynamics underlying their evolutionary success. Long-term TE evolution can readily be reconstructed in eukaryotes, thanks to many degraded copies constituting genomic fossil records of past TE proliferations. By contrast, bacterial genomes usually experience high sequence turnover and short TE retention times, thereby obscuring ancient TE evolutionary patterns. We found that Wolbachia bacterial genomes contain 52-171 insertion sequence (IS) TEs. IS account for 11% of Wolbachia wRi, which is one of the highest IS genomic coverage reported in prokaryotes to date. We show that many IS groups are currently expanding in various Wolbachia genomes and that IS horizontal transfers are frequent among strains, which can explain the apparent synchronicity of these IS proliferations. Remarkably, >70% of Wolbachia IS are nonfunctional. They constitute an unusual bacterial IS genomic fossil record providing direct empirical evidence for a long-term IS evolutionary dynamics following successive periods of intense transpositional activity. Our results show that comprehensive IS annotations have the potential to provide new insights into prokaryote TE evolution and, more generally, prokaryote genome evolution. Indeed, the identification of an important IS genomic fossil record in Wolbachia demonstrates that IS elements are not always of recent origin, contrary to the conventional view of TE evolution in prokaryote genomes. Our results also raise the question whether the abundance of IS fossils is specific to Wolbachia or it may be a general, albeit overlooked, feature of prokaryote genomes.

  10. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  11. Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussi, Gianbattista; Janes, Victoria; Whitehead, Paul G; Dadson, Simon J; Holman, Ian P

    2017-07-15

    The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Cryopreservation of testicular tissue before long-term testicular cell culture does not alter in vitro cell dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baert, Yoni; Braye, Aude; Struijk, Robin B.; van Pelt, Ans M. M.; Goossens, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    To assess whether testicular cell dynamics are altered during long-term culture after testicular tissue cryopreservation. Experimental basic science study. Reproductive biology laboratory. Testicular tissue with normal spermatogenesis was obtained from six donors. None. Detection and comparison of

  13. Simulation of long-term erosion on an abandoned mine site using the SIBERIA landscape evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, G.; Willgoose, G.; Evans, K.

    1999-01-01

    The SIBERIA catchment evolution model can simulate the evolution of landforms over many years as a result of runoff and erosion. This study discusses testing of the reliability of the erosion predictions of the model in a field study. Using erosion parameters calibrated from field studies of rainfall and runoff from the waste rock dump batters, the SIBERIA landscape evolution model was calibrated and then used to simulate erosion over 50 years on the abandoned Scinto 6 mine site. Scinto 6 is a former uranium mine located in the Kakadu Region, Northern Territory, Australia. The SIBERIA runs simulated the geomorphic development of the gullies on the man-made batters of the waste rock dump. The waste rock of the mine had been dumped in the characteristic pattern of a flat top and steep sided batters typical of many former and current dumps and there had been significant degradation from both sheet and gully erosion. Traditional erosion models cannot model this type of degradation because their erosion model cannot change the landform, while SIBERIA does change the landform. The gully position, depth volume and morphology on the waste rock dump were compared with that of SIBERIA simulations. The geomorphic development of the waste rock dump indicated that SIBERIA can simulate features that arise from the long-term effect of erosion and also their rate of development on a man-made post-mining landscape over periods of up to 50 years. The detailed results of this specific study will be discussed with specific discussion of the type of data required and the implications of the uncertain erosion physics on the reliability of the predictions

  14. Modulation of the erosion rate of an uplifting landscape by long-term climate change: An experimental investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussirou, Bérangé; Bonnet, Stéphane

    2018-02-01

    Whether or not climatic variations play a major role in setting the erosion rate of continental landscapes is a key factor in demonstrating the influence of climate on the tectonic evolution of mountain belts and understanding how clastic deposits preserved in sedimentary basins may record climatic variations. Here, we investigate how a change in precipitation influences the erosional dynamics of laboratory-scale landscapes that evolved under a combination of uplift and rainfall forcings. We consider here the impact of a decrease in the precipitation rate of finite duration on the erosive response of a landscape forced by a constant uplift and initially at a steady state (SS1). We performed several experiments with the same amplitude but different durations of precipitation decrease (Tp). We observe that the decrease in precipitation induces a phase of surface uplift of landscapes to a new steady state condition (SS2); however, the details of the uplift histories (timing, rate) differ between the experiments according to Tp. We also observe a decrease in the erosion rate induced by the precipitation change; however, the timing and amplitude of this decrease vary according to Tp, defining a delayed and damped erosion signal. Our data show that the landscape response to precipitation change is dictated by a critical water-to-rock ratio (ratio of precipitation over uplift) that likely corresponds to a geomorphic threshold. Our study suggests that variations in precipitation that occur at a geological time scale (> 106 years) may have a weak impact on the erosion of landscapes and on the delivery of siliciclastic material to large rivers and sedimentary basins.

  15. Long-term WWER-440 dynamics in cyclic power output changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petruzela, I.

    1989-01-01

    Xenon poisoning is one of the main factors limiting the operation of a nuclear power plant with a WWER-440 reactor in the variable load mode, when long-term dynamics applies to cyclic power output changes. An analysis of the xenon poisoning linearized transfer shows that a phase shift of 180deg takes place between the summed-up reactivity change due to a power change and the reactivity change due to xenon poisoning, this for a sine-wave power change with a period of 24 hours. Thus, the requirements are minimized for the change in reactivity of the control elements, and the maximum value can be achieved of released reactivity that can be utilized before the end of the campaign. (B.S.). 6 figs., 4 tabs., 9 refs

  16. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  17. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  18. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  19. Position-Invariant Robust Features for Long-Term Recognition of Dynamic Outdoor Scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawewong, Aram; Tangruamsub, Sirinart; Hasegawa, Osamu

    A novel Position-Invariant Robust Feature, designated as PIRF, is presented to address the problem of highly dynamic scene recognition. The PIRF is obtained by identifying existing local features (i.e. SIFT) that have a wide baseline visibility within a place (one place contains more than one sequential images). These wide-baseline visible features are then represented as a single PIRF, which is computed as an average of all descriptors associated with the PIRF. Particularly, PIRFs are robust against highly dynamical changes in scene: a single PIRF can be matched correctly against many features from many dynamical images. This paper also describes an approach to using these features for scene recognition. Recognition proceeds by matching an individual PIRF to a set of features from test images, with subsequent majority voting to identify a place with the highest matched PIRF. The PIRF system is trained and tested on 2000+ outdoor omnidirectional images and on COLD datasets. Despite its simplicity, PIRF offers a markedly better rate of recognition for dynamic outdoor scenes (ca. 90%) than the use of other features. Additionally, a robot navigation system based on PIRF (PIRF-Nav) can outperform other incremental topological mapping methods in terms of time (70% less) and memory. The number of PIRFs can be reduced further to reduce the time while retaining high accuracy, which makes it suitable for long-term recognition and localization.

  20. CQESTR Simulation of Soil Organic Matter Dynamics in Long-term Agricultural Experiments across USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gollany, H.; Liang, Y.; Albrecht, S.; Rickman, R.; Follett, R.; Wilhelm, W.; Novak, J.

    2009-04-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) has important chemical (supplies nutrients, buffers and adsorbs harmful chemical compounds), biological (supports the growth of microorganisms and micro fauna), and physical (improves soil structure and soil tilth, stores water, and reduces surface crusting, water runoff) functions. The loss of 20 to 50% of soil organic carbon (SOC) from USA soils after converting native prairie or forest to production agriculture is well documented. Sustainable management practices for SOC is critical for maintaining soil productivity and responsible utilization of crop residues. As crop residues are targeted for additional uses (e.g., cellulosic ethanol feedstock) developing C models that predict change in SOM over time with change in management becomes increasingly important. CQESTR, pronounced "sequester," is a process-based C balance model that relates organic residue additions, crop management and soil tillage to SOM accretion or loss. The model works on daily time-steps and can perform long-term (100-year) simulations. Soil organic matter change is computed by maintaining a soil C budget for additions, such as crop residue or added amendments like manure, and organic C losses through microbial decomposition. Our objective was to simulate SOM changes in agricultural soils under a range of soil parent materials, climate and management systems using the CQESTR model. Long-term experiments (e.g. Champaign, IL, >100 yrs; Columbia, MO, >100 yrs; Lincoln, NE, 20 yrs) under various tillage practices, organic amendments, crop rotations, and crop residue removal treatments were selected for their documented history of the long-term effects of management practice on SOM dynamics. Simulated and observed values from the sites were significantly related (r2 = 94%, P management issue. CQESTR successfully simulated a substantial decline in SOM with 90% of crop residue removal for 50 years under various rotations at Columbia, MO and Champaign, IL. An increase in SOM

  1. Long-term influence of asteroids on planet longitudes and chaotic dynamics of the solar system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woillez, E.; Bouchet, F.

    2017-11-01

    Over timescales much longer than an orbital period, the solar system exhibits large-scale chaotic behavior and can thus be viewed as a stochastic dynamical system. The aim of the present paper is to compare different sources of stochasticity in the solar system. More precisely we studied the importance of the long term influence of asteroids on the chaotic dynamics of the solar system. We show that the effects of asteroids on planets is similar to a white noise process, when those effects are considered on a timescale much larger than the correlation time τϕ ≃ 104 yr of asteroid trajectories. We computed the timescale τe after which the effects of the stochastic evolution of the asteroids lead to a loss of information for the initial conditions of the perturbed Laplace-Lagrange secular dynamics. The order of magnitude of this timescale is precisely determined by theoretical argument, and we find that τe ≃ 104 Myr. Although comparable to the full main-sequence lifetime of the sun, this timescale is considerably longer than the Lyapunov time τI ≃ 10 Myr of the solar system without asteroids. This shows that the external sources of chaos arise as a small perturbation in the stochastic secular behavior of the solar system, rather due to intrinsic chaos.

  2. Long-term Seedling Dynamics of Tree Species in a Subtropical Rain Forest, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Hao Chang-Yang

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of demographical rates at seedling stage is critical for understanding forest composition and dynamics. We monitored the seedling dynamics of tree species in a subtropical rain forest in Fushan, northern Taiwan (24°45’ N, 121°35’ E during an 8-yr period (2003–2010. There were great temporal fluctuations in the seedling density, which might be largely driven by the pulses of seedling recruitment. Interspecific variation in the seedling abundance, however, was not related to the reproductive adult abundance. Previous studies showed that frequent typhoon disturbances contributed to the high canopy openness and high understory light availability at Fushan, which might benefit tree regeneration. But our results do not support this idea. Most of the newly recruited seedlings died within six months and only grew 1.55 ± 0.20 cm per year, which might be suppressed by the dense understory vegetation. Our results suggested that the majority of tree species in Fushan were recruitment limited, which might have important consequences for species coexistence. High temporal variability in recruitment density and low growth rates of seedlings emphasize the importance of long-term studies to our understandings of forest dynamics.

  3. The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J M; Bottrell, S H; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; Bartlett, R; Rose, R; Newton, R J; Chapman, P J

    2010-06-01

    Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Biogeochemical cycles of Chernobyl-born radionuclides in the contaminated forest ecosystems: long-term dynamics of the migration processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcheglov, Alexey; Tsvetnova, Ol'ga; Klyashtorin, Alexey

    2013-04-01

    Biogeochemical migration is a dominant factor of the radionuclide transport through the biosphere. In the early XX century, V.I. Vernadskii, a Russian scientist known, noted about a special role living things play in transport and accumulation of natural radionuclide in various environments. The role of biogeochemical processes in migration and redistribution of technogenic radionuclides is not less important. In Russia, V. M. Klechkovskii and N.V. Timofeev-Ressovskii showed some important biogeochemical aspects of radionuclide migration by the example of global fallout and Kyshtym accident. Their followers, R.M. Alexakhin, M.A. Naryshkin, N.V. Kulikov, F.A. Tikhomirov, E.B. Tyuryukanova, and others also contributed a lot to biogeochemistry of radionuclides. In the post-Chernobyl period, this area of knowledge received a lot of data that allowed building the radioactive element balance and flux estimation in various biogeochemical cycles [Shcheglov et al., 1999]. Regrettably, many of recent radioecological studies are only focused on specific radionuclide fluxes or pursue some applied tasks, missing the holistic approach. Most of the studies consider biogeochemical fluxes of radioactive isotopes in terms of either dose estimation or radionuclide migration rates in various food chains. However, to get a comprehensive picture and develop a reliable forecast of environmental, ecological, and social consequences of radioactive pollution in a vast contaminated area, it is necessary to investigate all the radionuclide fluxes associated with the biogeochemical cycles in affected ecosystems. We believe such an integrated approach would be useful to study long-term environmental consequences of the Fukushima accident as well. In our long-term research, we tried to characterize the flux dynamics of the Chernobyl-born radionuclides in the contaminated forest ecosystems and landscapes as a part of the integrated biogeochemical process. Our field studies were started in June of

  5. A wearable wireless ECG monitoring system with dynamic transmission power control for long-term homecare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yishan; Doleschel, Sammy; Wunderlich, Ralf; Heinen, Stefan

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a wearable wireless ECG monitoring system based on novel 3-Lead electrode placements for long-term homecare. The experiment for novel 3-Lead electrode placements is carried out, and the results show that the distance between limb electrodes can be significantly reduced. Based on the new electrode position, a small size sensor node, which is powered by a rechargeable battery, is designed to detect, amplify, filter and transmit the ECG signals. The coordinator receives the data and sends it to PC. Finally the signals are displayed on the GUI. In order to control the power consumption of sensor node, a dynamic power adjustment method is applied to automatically adjust the transmission power of the sensor node according to the received signal strength indicator (RSSI), which is related to the distance and obstacle between sensor node and coordinator. The system is evaluated when the user, who wears the sensor, is walking and running. A promising performance is achieved even under body motion. The power consumption can be significantly reduced with this dynamic power adjustment method.

  6. An agar gel membrane-PDMS hybrid microfluidic device for long term single cell dynamic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ieong; Atsumi, Shota; Huang, Wei-Chih; Wu, Tung-Yun; Hanai, Taizo; Lam, Miu-Ling; Tang, Ping; Yang, Jian; Liao, James C; Ho, Chih-Ming

    2010-10-21

    Significance of single cell measurements stems from the substantial temporal fluctuations and cell-cell variability possessed by individual cells. A major difficulty in monitoring surface non-adherent cells such as bacteria and yeast is that these cells tend to aggregate into clumps during growth, obstructing the tracking or identification of single-cells over long time periods. Here, we developed a microfluidic platform for long term single-cell tracking and cultivation with continuous media refreshing and dynamic chemical perturbation capability. The design highlights a simple device-assembly process between PDMS microchannel and agar membrane through conformal contact, and can be easily adapted by microbiologists for their routine laboratory use. The device confines cell growth in monolayer between an agar membrane and a glass surface. Efficient nutrient diffusion through the membrane and reliable temperature maintenance provide optimal growth condition for the cells, which exhibited fast exponential growth and constant distribution of cell sizes. More than 24 h of single-cell tracking was demonstrated on a transcription-metabolism integrated synthetic biological model, the gene-metabolic oscillator. Single cell morphology study under alcohol toxicity allowed us to discover and characterize cell filamentation exhibited by different E. coli isobutanol tolerant strains. We believe this novel device will bring new capabilities to quantitative microbiology, providing a versatile platform for single cell dynamic studies.

  7. Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gernaat, David E H J; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Van Vliet, Jasper; Sullivan, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J.

    2014-01-01

    Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the

  8. Factors influencing long term dynamics of health care supply and demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, M.T.; Roos, E.; Pries-Heje, J.; Chiasson, M.; Wareham, J.; Busquets, X.; Valor, J.

    2012-01-01

    Governments and other policy makers use long-term planning models to support workforce planning decisions for regulating care markets and to ensure accurate balancing between care supply and demand. Our aim is to understand long-term effects of workforce planning decisions on care markets, in order

  9. Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kalicinsky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis of annual average OH* temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed long-term dynamics. We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055 K year−1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9 K (100 SFU−1 (r2 of fit 0.6. However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07 K year−1, and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33 K year−1. This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle. A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients Csolar = (5.0 ± 0.7 K (100 SFU−1 and Chale = (1.8 ±  0.5 K (100 µT−1 (r2 = 0.71. The second way of describing the OH* temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A least-square fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8 K (100 SFU−1, a period P  =  (24.8 ± 3.3 years, and

  10. Long-term competitive dynamics of two cryptic rotifer species: diapause and fluctuating conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Gabaldón

    Full Text Available Life-history traits may have an important role in promoting species coexistence. However, the complexity of certain life cycles makes it difficult to draw conclusions about the conditions for coexistence or exclusion based on the study of short-term competitive dynamics. Brachionus plicatilis and B. manjavacasare two cryptic rotifer species co-occurring in many lakes on the Iberian Peninsula. They have a complex life cycle in which cyclical parthenogenesis occurs with diapausing stages being the result of sexual reproduction. B. plicatilis and B. manjavacasare identical in morphology and size, their biotic niches are broadly overlapping, and they have similar competitive abilities. However, the species differ in life-history traits involving sexual reproduction and diapause, and respond differently to salinity and temperature. As in the case of certain other species that are extremely similar in morphology, a fluctuating environment are considered to be important for their coexistence. We studied the long-term competitive dynamics of B. plicatilis and B. manjavacas under different salinity regimes (constant and fluctuating. Moreover, we focused on the dynamics of the diapausing egg bank to explore how the outcome of the entire life cycle of these rotifers can work to mediate stable coexistence. We demonstrated that these species do not coexist under constant-salinity environment, as the outcome of competition is affected by the level of salinity-at low salinity, B. plicatilis excluded B. manjavacas, and the opposite outcome occurred at high salinity. Competitive dynamics under fluctuating salinity showed that the dominance of one species over the other also tended to fluctuate. The duration of co-occurrence of these species was favoured by salinity fluctuation and perhaps by the existence of a diapausing egg bank. Stable coexistence was not found in our system, which suggests that other factors or other salinity fluctuation patterns might act as

  11. Long-term competitive dynamics of two cryptic rotifer species: diapause and fluctuating conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabaldón, Carmen; Carmona, María José; Montero-Pau, Javier; Serra, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Life-history traits may have an important role in promoting species coexistence. However, the complexity of certain life cycles makes it difficult to draw conclusions about the conditions for coexistence or exclusion based on the study of short-term competitive dynamics. Brachionus plicatilis and B. manjavacasare two cryptic rotifer species co-occurring in many lakes on the Iberian Peninsula. They have a complex life cycle in which cyclical parthenogenesis occurs with diapausing stages being the result of sexual reproduction. B. plicatilis and B. manjavacasare identical in morphology and size, their biotic niches are broadly overlapping, and they have similar competitive abilities. However, the species differ in life-history traits involving sexual reproduction and diapause, and respond differently to salinity and temperature. As in the case of certain other species that are extremely similar in morphology, a fluctuating environment are considered to be important for their coexistence. We studied the long-term competitive dynamics of B. plicatilis and B. manjavacas under different salinity regimes (constant and fluctuating). Moreover, we focused on the dynamics of the diapausing egg bank to explore how the outcome of the entire life cycle of these rotifers can work to mediate stable coexistence. We demonstrated that these species do not coexist under constant-salinity environment, as the outcome of competition is affected by the level of salinity-at low salinity, B. plicatilis excluded B. manjavacas, and the opposite outcome occurred at high salinity. Competitive dynamics under fluctuating salinity showed that the dominance of one species over the other also tended to fluctuate. The duration of co-occurrence of these species was favoured by salinity fluctuation and perhaps by the existence of a diapausing egg bank. Stable coexistence was not found in our system, which suggests that other factors or other salinity fluctuation patterns might act as stabilizing

  12. Rebuilding after collapse: evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehmer, Hans Juergen; Wagner, Helene H.; Jacobi, James D.; Gerrish, Grant C.; Mueller-Dombois, Dieter

    2013-01-01

    Questions: Do long-term observations in permanent plots confirm the conceptual model of Metrosideros polymorpha cohort dynamics as postulated in 1987? Do regeneration patterns occur independently of substrate age, i.e. of direct volcanic disturbance impact? Location: The windward mountain slopes of the younger Mauna Loa and the older Mauna Kea volcanoes (island of Hawaii, USA). Methods: After widespread forest decline (dieback), permanent plots were established in 1976 in 13 dieback and 13 non-dieback patches to monitor the population structure of M. polymorpha at ca. 5-yr intervals. Within each plot of 20 × 20 m, all trees with DBH >2.5 cm were individually tagged, measured and tree vigour assessed; regeneration was quantified in 16 systematically placed subplots of 3 × 5 m. Data collected in the subplots included the total number of M. polymorpha seedlings and saplings (five stem height classes). Here we analyse monitoring data from six time steps from 1976 to 2003 using repeated measures ANOVA to test specific predictions derived from the 1987 conceptual model. Results: Regeneration was significantly different between dieback and non-dieback plots. In dieback plots, the collapse in the 1970s was followed by a ‘sapling wave’ that by 2003 led to new cohort stands of M. polymorpha. In non-dieback stands, seedling emergence did not result in sapling waves over the same period. Instead, a ‘sapling gap’ (i.e. very few or no M. polymorpha saplings) prevailed as typical for mature stands. Canopy dieback in 1976, degree of recovery by 2003 and the number of living trees in 2003 were unrelated to substrate age. Conclusions: Population development of M. polymorpha supports the cohort dynamics model, which predicts rebuilding of the forest with the same canopy species after dieback. The lack of association with substrate age suggests that the long-term maintenance of cohort structure in M. polymorpha does not depend on volcanic disturbance but may be related to

  13. Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven T Stoddard

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

  14. The metabolic dynamics of cartilage explants over a long-term culture period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.K Moo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although previous studies have been performed on cartilage explant cultures, the generalized dynamics of cartilage metabolism after extraction from the host are still poorly understood due to differences in the experimental setups across studies, which in turn prevent building a complete picture. METHODS: In this study, we investigated the response of cartilage to the trauma sustained during extraction and determined the time needed for the cartilage to stabilize. Explants were extracted aseptically from bovine metacarpal-phalangeal joints and cultured for up to 17 days. RESULTS: The cell viability, cell number, proteoglycan content, and collagen content of the harvested explants were analyzed at 0, 2, 10, and 17 days after explantation. A high percentage of the cartilage explants were found to be viable. The cell density initially increased significantly but stabilized after two days. The proteoglycan content decreased gradually over time, but it did not decrease to a significant level due to leakage through the distorted peripheral collagen network and into the bathing medium. The collagen content remained stable for most of the culture period until it dropped abruptly on day 17. CONCLUSION: Overall, the tested cartilage explants were sustainable over long-term culture. They were most stable from day 2 to day 10. The degradation of the collagen on day 17 did not reach diseased levels, but it indicated the potential of the cultures to develop into degenerated cartilage. These findings have implications for the application of cartilage explants in pathophysiological fields.

  15. Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kozubek

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the long-term trends of different atmospheric parameters have been already studied separately in many papers, this study is focused on the stratospheric wind (zonal and meridional components and temperature over the whole globe at 10 hPa during 1979–2015. We present the trends for the whole winter (October–March, for each individual month of winter and separately for the period before and after the ozone trend turnaround during the mid-1990s. The change of ozone trends has a clear impact on trends in other investigated stratospheric parameters. Four reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE are used for comparison. Every grid point is analysed, not zonal averages. The comparison of trends in meridional wind, which is closely connected with Brewer–Dobson circulation, shows a good agreement for all four reanalyses (main features and amplitudes of the trends in terms of winter averages, but there are some differences in individual months, particularly in trend amplitude. These results could be important for studying dynamics (transport in the whole stratosphere.

  16. Long-term disturbance dynamics and resilience of tropical peat swamp forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Lydia E S; Bhagwat, Shonil A; Willis, Katherine J

    2015-01-01

    1. The coastal peat swamp forests of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, are undergoing rapid conversion, predominantly into oil palm plantations. This wetland ecosystem is assumed to have experienced insignificant disturbance in the past, persisting under a single ecologically-stable regime. However, there is limited knowledge of the past disturbance regime, long-term functioning and fundamentally the resilience of this ecosystem to changing natural and anthropogenic perturbations through time. 2. In this study, long-term ecological data sets from three degraded peatlands in Sarawak were collected to shed light on peat swamp forest dynamics. Fossil pollen and charcoal were counted in each sedimentary sequence to reconstruct vegetation and investigate responses to past environmental disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic. 3. Results demonstrate that peat swamp forest taxa have dominated these vegetation profiles throughout the last c . 2000-year period despite the presence of various drivers of disturbance. Evidence for episodes of climatic variability, predominantly linked to ENSO events, and wildfires is present throughout. However, in the last c . 500 years, burning and indicators of human disturbance have elevated beyond past levels at these sites, concurrent with a reduction in peat swamp forest pollen. 4. Two key insights have been gained through this palaeoecological analysis: (i) peat swamp forest vegetation has demonstrated resilience to disturbance caused by burning and climatic variability in Sarawak in the late Holocene, however (ii) coincident with increased fire combined with human impact c . 500 years ago, these communities started to decline. 5. Synthesis . Sarawak's coastal peat swamps have demonstrated resilience to past natural disturbances, with forest vegetation persisting through episodes of fire and climatic variability. However, palaeoecological data presented here suggest that recent, anthropogenic disturbances are of a greater magnitude

  17. Mind the gap: modelling event-based and millennial-scale landscape dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, J.E.M.

    2012-01-01

    This research looks at landscape dynamics – erosion and deposition – from two different perspectives: long-term landscape evolution over millennial timescales on the one hand and short-term event-based erosion and deposition at the other hand. For the first, landscape evolution models (LEMs) are

  18. Long-term 4D Geoelectrical Imaging of Moisture Dynamics in an Active Landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlemann, S.; Chambers, J. E.; Wilkinson, P. B.; Maurer, H.; Meldrum, P.; Gunn, D.; Smith, A.; Dijkstra, T.

    2016-12-01

    Landslides are a major natural hazard, endangering communities and infrastructure worldwide. Mitigating landslide risk relies on understanding causes and triggering processes, which are often linked to moisture dynamics in slopes causing material softening and elevated pore water pressures. Geoelectrical monitoring is frequently applied to study landslide hydrology. However, its sensitivity to sensor movements has been a challenge for long-term studies on actively failing slopes. Although 2D data acquisition has previously been favoured, it provides limited resolution and relatively poor representation of important 3D landslide structures. We present a novel methodology to incorporate electrode movements into a time-lapse 3D inversion workflow, resulting in a virtually artefact-free time-series of resistivity models. Using temperature correction and laboratory hydro-geophysical relationships, resistivity models are translated into models of moisture content. The data span more than three years, enabling imaging of processes pre- and post landslide reactivation. In the two years before reactivation, the models showed surficial wetting and drying, drainage pathways, and deeper groundwater dynamics. During reactivation, exceptionally high moisture contents were imaged throughout the slope, which was confirmed by independent measurements. Preferential flow was imaged that stabilized parts of the landslide by diverting moisture, and thus dissipating pore pressures, from the slip surface. The results highlight that moisture levels obtained from resistivity monitoring may provide a better activity threshold than rainfall intensity. Based on this work, pro-active remediation measures could be designed and effective early-warning systems implemented. Eventually, resistivity monitoring that can account for moving electrodes may provide a new means for pro-active mitigation of landslide risk, especially for communities and critical infrastructure.

  19. Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

  20. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  1. Long-Term Monitoring of Water Dynamics in the Sahel Region Using the Multi-Sar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, A.; Wendleder, A.; Schmitt, A.; Huber, M.

    2016-06-01

    Fresh water is a scarce resource in the West-African Sahel region, seasonally influenced by droughts and floods. Particularly in terms of climate change, the importance of wetlands increases for flora, fauna, human population, agriculture, livestock and fishery. Hence, access to open water is a key factor. Long-term monitoring of water dynamics is of great importance, especially with regard to the spatio-temporal extend of wetlands and drylands. It can predict future trends and facilitate the development of adequate management strategies. Lake Tabalak, a Ramsar wetland of international importance, is one of the most significant ponds in Niger and a refuge for waterbirds. Nevertheless, human population growth increased the pressure on this ecosystem, which is now degrading for all uses. The main objective of the study is a long-term monitoring of the Lake Tabalak's water dynamics to delineate permanent and seasonal water bodies, using weather- and daytime-independent multi-sensor and multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data available for the study area. Data of the following sensors from 1993 until 2016 are used: Sentinel-1A, TerraSARX, ALOS PALSAR-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-1/2, and ERS-1/2. All SAR data are processed with the Multi-SAR-System, unifying the different characteristics of all above mentioned sensors in terms of geometric, radiometric and polarimetric resolution to a consistent format. The polarimetric representation in Kennaugh elements allows fusing single-polarized data acquired by older sensors with multi-polarized data acquired by current sensors. The TANH-normalization guarantees a consistent and therefore comparable description in a closed data range in terms of radiometry. The geometric aspect is solved by projecting all images to an earth-fixed coordinate system correcting the brightness by the help of the incidence angle. The elevation model used in the geocoding step is the novel global model produced by the TanDEM-X satellite

  2. Quantifying and Modelling Long Term Sediment Dynamics in Catchments in Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notebaert, B.; De Brue, H.; Verstraeten, G.; Broothaerts, N.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of sediment dynamics allows to get insight in driving forces and internal dynamics of the sediment cascade system. A useful tool to achieve this is the sediment budget approach, which encompasses the quantification of different sinks and sources. A Holocene time-differentiated sediment budget has been constructed for the Belgian Dijle River catchment (720 km²), based on a large set of field data. The results show how soil erosion is driven by land use changes over longer timescales. Sediment redistribution and the relative importance of the different sinks also vary over time, mainly as a result of changing land use and related landscape connectivity. However, the coarse temporal resolution typically associated with Holocene studies complicates the understanding of sub-millennial scale processes. In a second step, the field-based sediment budget was combined with a modeling approach using Watem/Sedem, a spatially distributed model that simulates soil erosion and colluvial deposition. After validation of the model calibration against the sediment budget, the model was used in a sensitivity analysis. Results confirm the overwhelming influence of human land use on both soil erosion and landscape connectivity, whereas the climatic impact is comparatively small. In addition to catchment-wide simulations, the model also served to test the relative importance of lynchets and dry valleys in different environments. Finally, the geomorphic model was used to simulate past land use, taking into account equifinality. For this purpose, a large series of hypothetical time-independent land use maps of the Dijle catchment were modeled based on a multi-objective allocation algorithm, and applied in Watem/Sedem. Modeled soil erosion and sediment deposition outcomes for each scenario were subsequently compared with the field-based record, taking into account uncertainties. As such, the model allows to evaluate and select realistic land use scenarios for the Holocene.

  3. Long-term dynamics of dissolved organic carbon: implications for drinking water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledesma, José L J; Köhler, Stephan J; Futter, Martyn N

    2012-08-15

    Surface waters are the main source of drinking water in many regions. Increasing organic carbon concentrations are a cause for concern in Nordic countries since both dissolved and particulate organic carbon can transport contaminants and adversely affect drinking water treatment processes. We present a long-term study of dynamics of total (particulate and dissolved) organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in the River Fyris. This river supplies drinking water to approximately 200000 people in Uppsala, Sweden. The River Fyris is a main tributary to Lake Mälaren, which supplies drinking water to approximately 2 million people in the greater Stockholm area. Utilities responsible for drinking water supply in both Uppsala and Stockholm have expressed concerns about possible increases in TOC. We evaluate organic carbon dynamics within the Fyris catchment by calculating areal mass exports using observed TOC concentrations and modeled flows and by modeling dissolved organic carbon (as a proxy for TOC) using the dynamic, process based INCA-C model. Exports of TOC from the catchment ranged from 0.8 to 5.8 g m(-2) year(-1) in the period 1995-2010. The variation in annual exports was related to climatic variability which influenced seasonality and amount of runoff. Exports and discharge uncoupled at the end of 2008. A dramatic increase in TOC concentrations was observed in 2009, which gradually declined in 2010-2011. INCA-C successfully reproduced the intra- and inter-annual variation in concentrations during 1996-2008 and 2010-2011 but failed to capture the anomalous increase in 2009. We evaluated a number of hypotheses to explain the anomaly in 2009 TOC values, ultimately none proved satisfactory. We draw two main conclusions: there is at least one unknown or unmeasured process controlling or influencing surface water TOC and INCA-C can be used as part of the decision-making process for current and future use of rivers for drinking water supply. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B

  4. Predicting nitrogen and acidity effects on long-term dynamics of dissolved organic matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, E.C.; Tipping, E.; Posch, M.; Oulehle, F.; Cooper, D.M.; Jones, T.G.; Burden, A.; Hall, J.; Evans, C.D.

    2014-01-01

    Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes may relate to changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution. We integrated existing models of vegetation growth and soil organic matter turnover, acid–base dynamics, and organic matter mobility, to form the ‘MADOC’ model. After calibrating parameters governing interactions between pH and DOC dissolution using control treatments on two field experiments, MADOC reproduced responses of pH and DOC to additions of acidifying and alkalising solutions. Long-term trends in a range of acid waters were also reproduced. The model suggests that the sustained nature of observed DOC increases can best be explained by a continuously replenishing potentially-dissolved carbon pool, rather than dissolution of a large accumulated store. The simulations informed the development of hypotheses that: DOC increase is related to plant productivity increase as well as to pH change; DOC increases due to nitrogen pollution will become evident, and be sustained, after soil pH has stabilised. -- Highlights: • A model of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was developed by integrating simple models • MADOC simulates effects of sulphur and nitrogen deposition and interactions with pH. • Responses of DOC and pH to experimental acidification and alkalisation were reproduced. • The persistence of DOC increases will depend on continued supply of potential DOC. • DOC fluxes are likely determined by plant productivity as well as soil solution pH. -- Effects of changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution on dissolved organic carbon fluxes are predicted by simulating soil organic matter cycling, the release of potentially-dissolved carbon, and interactions with soil pH

  5. Long term picoplankton dynamics in a warm-monomictic, tropical high altitude lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso LUGO VÁZQUEZ

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Long term analyses of the microbial loop, centred on the picoplankton dynamics, were carried out over a five-year (1998 to 2002 period in Lake Alchichica (Puebla, Mexico, a high altitude tropical athalassohaline lake. The hydrodynamics of the lake followed a warm-monomictic pattern with mixing at a minimum temperature during the early dry season while the stratification was pronounced in the late dry season and throughout the rainy season; anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion lasted <9 months. The annual mean concentrations of chlorophyll-a were below 4 μg L-1 in 1998, 1999 and 2001, however, 6.1 and 5.2 μg L-1 in 2000 and 2002, respectively. Total picoplankton, TPP, displayed a temporal pattern that followed the mixing-stratification cycle. The highest TPP values (the whole water column ≥5×106 cells mL-1 were found during mixing and early stratification (January-March. The minimum numbers were present during late stratification (October-November. The maximum TPP numbers were observed within the layer 0-20 m, which corresponded to the epilimnion during the stratification period. Neither the thermocline nor the deep chlorophyll maximum showed an elevated TPP concentration. In the hypolimnion, TPP numbers were low (frequently <1×106 cells mL-1 apparently as a result of the long period of anoxia. Notwithstanding autotrophic picoplankton (APP contributed even ≥30% of TPP (2001 to 2002; no significant correlation was found between TPP and chlorophyll-a.

  6. THE LONG-TERM DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF DISK-FRAGMENTED MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IN THE SOLAR NEIGHBORHOOD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yun [Department of Astronomy, School of Physics, Peking University, Yiheyuan Lu 5, Haidian Qu, Beijing 100871 (China); Kouwenhoven, M. B. N. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, 111 Ren’ai Road, Suzhou Dushu Lake Science and Education Innovation District, Suzhou Industrial Park, Suzhou 215123 (China); Stamatellos, D. [Jeremiah Horrocks Institute for Mathematics, Physics and Astronomy, University of Central Lancashire, Preston PR1 2HE (United Kingdom); Goodwin, Simon P., E-mail: t.kouwenhoven@xjtlu.edu.cn [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-10

    The origin of very low-mass hydrogen-burning stars, brown dwarfs (BDs), and planetary-mass objects (PMOs) at the low-mass end of the initial mass function is not yet fully understood. Gravitational fragmentation of circumstellar disks provides a possible mechanism for the formation of such low-mass objects. The kinematic and binary properties of very low-mass objects formed through disk fragmentation at early times (<10 Myr) were discussed in our previous paper. In this paper we extend the analysis by following the long-term evolution of disk-fragmented systems up to an age of 10 Gyr, covering the ages of the stellar and substellar populations in the Galactic field. We find that the systems continue to decay, although the rates at which companions escape or collide with each other are substantially lower than during the first 10 Myr, and that dynamical evolution is limited beyond 1 Gyr. By t = 10 Gyr, about one third of the host stars are single, and more than half have only one companion left. Most of the other systems have two companions left that orbit their host star in widely separated orbits. A small fraction of companions have formed binaries that orbit the host star in a hierarchical triple configuration. The majority of such double-companion systems have internal orbits that are retrograde with respect to their orbits around their host stars. Our simulations allow a comparison between the predicted outcomes of disk fragmentation with the observed low-mass hydrogen-burning stars, BDs, and PMOs in the solar neighborhood. Imaging and radial velocity surveys for faint binary companions among nearby stars are necessary for verification or rejection of the formation mechanism proposed in this paper.

  7. Developmental Dynamics of Intergroup Contact and Intergroup Attitudes: Long-Term Effects in Adolescence and Early Adulthood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wölfer, R.; van Zalk, M.H.W.; Schmid, K.; Hewstone, M.

    2016-01-01

    Intergroup contact represents a powerful way to improve intergroup attitudes and to overcome prejudice and discrimination. However, long-term effects of intergroup contact that consider social network dynamics have rarely been studied at a young age. Study 1 validated an optimized social network

  8. Climate change and population dynamics at the tree line: the importance of long-term studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anfodillo T

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature-limited ecosystems are believed to be extremely sensitive to global warming and the upward treeline migration is one of the most relevant phenomenon. Long term monitoring of demographic trends appears essential in order to understand possible effects of higher temperatures on cold ecosystems. Long-term monitoring of natality and mortality of a Pinus sylvestris population in the Swedish Scandes from 1973 to 2005 (Kullman 2007 showed that number of trees increased in the study plots due to higher natality rate, especially in the last decade. This reverses a natural trend of treeline decline and recession occurred in the past.

  9. Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Steven Ahl

    2007-01-01

    Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

  10. Long-term dynamic characterization of aeolian desertification in northwest Shanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Zhanjin; Qin, Zuodong; Cheng, Fangqin; Ding, Guangwei; Li, Hongjian

    2017-07-01

    Northwest Shanxi is located on the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China, where aeolian desertification is one of the most serious environmental and socioeconomic issues. The remote sensing image and geostatistical approach were implemented to estimate aeolian desertified land (ADL) dynamic variations from 1975 to 2015. Results showed that the ADL covered 11,685.21 km 2 (82.29%) of the study area in 2015, the majority of which was classified as a light or moderate degree. The area of ADL gradually expanded at an increasing rate of 87.37 km 2 a -1 during the 1975-2000 periods. More specifically, the area of ADL has increased by 1259.23 km 2 from 1975 to 1990 and by 924.96 km 2 from 1990 to 2000, respectively. In contrast, spatial transfer of ADL areas has dwindled by 2365.85 km 2 with a net decrease of 157.72 km 2 a -1 , and the mitigated areas of aeolian desertification were 10,602.24 km 2 between 2000 and 2015. During the past 40 years, the gravity center of ADL migrated to southeast until 2000 and moved northwest in 2000-2015. From 1975 to 2000, the migration distance of severe ADL was the largest, migrated toward the northwest by 19.03 km in 1975-1990 and by 20.16 km in 1990-2000, respectively. From 2000 to 2015, the migration distance of light ADL was the largest, 27.54 km migrated to the northwest. Aeolian desertification rapidly expanded from 1975 to 2000 under the combination of climate change and intensive human activities. Since the year of 2000, ecological engineering strategy initiated by the governments has been the dominant contributor to the aeolian desertification severity reversal. Aeolian desertification prevention is a complicated process. Both the central and local government should play a critical role in the rehabilitation of ADL in the long term.

  11. An Examination of Long-Term Environmental-Social Dynamics in the Balkans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, C.; Boger, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    This study examines the interactions of environmental and social dynamics in Central Balkans over the past millennium, a period that experienced three major climatic phases (Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the warm 20th century). Meanwhile, the same period witnessed a complex human history with the emergence-rise-decline of the Ottoman Empire and subsequent socio-political events (e.g. wars, famines, migrations). Environmental datasets for the analysis include biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical signals through X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS 14C dating of two western and central Serbian lakes while social datasets include historic population data, land use, settlement patterns, and critical historic events derived from a review of the literature and local archives. Among the environmental datasets, indigenous tree and herbaceous pollen from these Central Balkans records demonstrate fluctuations in woodland-grassland dynamics whereas potassium and titanium counts obtained through XRF act as a proxy for surface erosion and clastic input into the lakes. Microscopic charcoal, cereal pollen and subordinate anthropogenic pollen (e.g. cultivated fruits and vegetables) are used to distinguish strong human impact over the landscape. These key anthropogenic indicators create a more thorough social component of the analysis in association with the social datasets. After reconstructing the individual time series for each environmental and social dataset, the two Central Balkan records are correlated in order to identify the environmental and social homogeneity and heterogeneity patterns occurring at shorter and longer timescales during the period. Results provide insights on how a region responds to social and environmental stressors and our approach demonstrates ways to integrate natural and social science system research.

  12. On The Ubiquity of Nonstationary Fluvial Suspended Sediment Dynamics: A Call for Long Term Monitoring and Dynamical Sediment Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Watersheds with sufficient monitoring data have been predominantly found to display nonstationary suspended sediment dynamics, whereby the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and discharge changes over time. Despite the importance of suspended sediment as a keystone of geophysical and biochemical processes, and as a primary mediator of water quality, stationary behavior remains largely assumed in the context of these applications. This study presents an investigation into the time dependent behavior of small mountainous rivers draining the coastal ranges of the western continental US over interannual to interdecadal time scales. Of the 250+ small coastal (drainage area systems. Temporal patterns of non-stationary behavior provided some evidence for spatial coherence, which may be related to synoptic hydro-metrological patterns and regional scale changes in land use patterns. However, the results also highlight the complex, integrative nature of watershed scale fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. This underscores the need for in-depth, forensic approaches for initial processes identification, which require long term, high resolution monitoring efforts in order to adequately inform management. The societal implications of nonstationary sediment dynamics and their controls were further explored through the case of California, USA, where over 150 impairment listings have resulted in more than 50 sediment TMDLs, only 3 of which are flux based - none of which account for non-stationary behavior.

  13. Chernobyl radiocesium in freshwater fish: Long-term dynamics and sources of variation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundbom, M [Uppsala Univ., Dept. of Limnology, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2002-04-01

    The aim of this thesis was to investigate both the long-term temporal pattern and sources of individual variation for radiocesium in freshwater fish. The basis for the study is time series of {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in fish from three lakes in the area North-west of Uppsala, Sweden that received considerable amounts of {sup 137}Cs from Chernobyl in may 1986. The lakes were Lake Ekholmssjoen, Lake Flatsjoen and Lake Siggeforasjoen, all small forest lakes, but with different morphometrical and chemical characteristics. The data were collected regularly, usually several times per year, during 1986-2000, using consistent methods. More than 7600 fish individuals from 7 species covering wide size ranges and feeding habits were analysed for {sup 137}Cs. For each fish was the length, weight, sex, and often the stomach contend recorded. The evaluation on long-term trends were based on data from all three lakes, while the study on sources of variation evaluated data from Lake Flatsjoen only. (au)

  14. Chernobyl radiocesium in freshwater fish: Long-term dynamics and sources of variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundbom, M.

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to investigate both the long-term temporal pattern and sources of individual variation for radiocesium in freshwater fish. The basis for the study is time series of 137 Cs activity concentrations in fish from three lakes in the area North-west of Uppsala, Sweden that received considerable amounts of 137 Cs from Chernobyl in may 1986. The lakes were Lake Ekholmssjoen, Lake Flatsjoen and Lake Siggeforasjoen, all small forest lakes, but with different morphometrical and chemical characteristics. The data were collected regularly, usually several times per year, during 1986-2000, using consistent methods. More than 7600 fish individuals from 7 species covering wide size ranges and feeding habits were analysed for 137 Cs. For each fish was the length, weight, sex, and often the stomach contend recorded. The evaluation on long-term trends were based on data from all three lakes, while the study on sources of variation evaluated data from Lake Flatsjoen only. (au)

  15. LONG-TERM DYNAMIC MONITORING OF THE HISTORICAL MASONRY FAÇADE: THE CASE OF PALAZZO DUCALE IN VENICE, ITALY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Noh

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Long-term dynamic monitoring of the masonry façade of Palazzo Ducale known as Doge’s palace in Venice, Italy was performed from September 2010 to October 2012. This article demonstrates the results of preliminary analysis on the data set of the first 12-month long monitoring campaign for out-of-plumb dynamic responses of the medieval façade of the monument. The aim of the analysis of the dynamic signals is to validate the data set and investigate dynamic characteristics of the vibration signature of the historical masonry wall in the long-term. Palazzo Ducale is a heavily visited heritage due to its high cultural importance and architectural value. Nevertheless, little is known about the dynamic behaviour of the double-leaf masonry façade. In this study, the dynamic properties of the structure are presented by dynamic identification carried out with the effect of the ambient vibration measured at four different locations on the façade and portico level. The trend and intensity of the vibration at each measurement locations are identified over the year. In addition, the issue on eliminating the noise blended in the signals for reliable analysis are also discussed.

  16. Long-Term Dynamic Monitoring of the Historical Masonry FAÇADE: the Case of Palazzo Ducale in Venice, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, J.; Russo, S.

    2017-08-01

    Long-term dynamic monitoring of the masonry façade of Palazzo Ducale known as Doge's palace in Venice, Italy was performed from September 2010 to October 2012. This article demonstrates the results of preliminary analysis on the data set of the first 12-month long monitoring campaign for out-of-plumb dynamic responses of the medieval façade of the monument. The aim of the analysis of the dynamic signals is to validate the data set and investigate dynamic characteristics of the vibration signature of the historical masonry wall in the long-term. Palazzo Ducale is a heavily visited heritage due to its high cultural importance and architectural value. Nevertheless, little is known about the dynamic behaviour of the double-leaf masonry façade. In this study, the dynamic properties of the structure are presented by dynamic identification carried out with the effect of the ambient vibration measured at four different locations on the façade and portico level. The trend and intensity of the vibration at each measurement locations are identified over the year. In addition, the issue on eliminating the noise blended in the signals for reliable analysis are also discussed.

  17. Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

    2014-05-01

    Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

  18. Jaguar Densities across Human-Dominated Landscapes in Colombia: The Contribution of Unprotected Areas to Long Term Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria Boron

    Full Text Available Large carnivores such as jaguars (Panthera onca are species of conservation concern because they are suffering population declines and are keystone species in their ecosystems. Their large area requirements imply that unprotected and ever-increasing agricultural regions can be important habitats as they allow connectivity and dispersal among core protected areas. Yet information on jaguar densities across unprotected landscapes it is still scarce and crucially needed to assist management and range-wide conservation strategies. Our study provides the first jaguar density estimates of Colombia in agricultural regions which included cattle ranching, the main land use in the country, and oil palm cultivation, an increasing land use across the Neotropics. We used camera trapping across two agricultural landscapes located in the Magdalena River valley and in the Colombian llanos (47-53 stations respectively; >2000 trap nights at both sites and classic and spatially explicit capture-recapture models with the sex of individuals as a covariate. Density estimates were 2.52±0.46-3.15±1.08 adults/100 km2 in the Magdalena valley, whereas 1.12±0.13-2.19±0.99 adults/100 km2 in the Colombian llanos, depending on analysis used. We suggest that jaguars are able to live across unprotected human-use areas and co-exist with agricultural landscapes including oil-palm plantations if natural areas and riparian habitats persist in the landscape and hunting of both jaguar and prey is limited. In the face of an expanding agriculture across the tropics we recommend land-use planning, adequate incentives, regulations, and good agricultural practices for range-wide jaguar connectivity and survival.

  19. Analysis of the long-term availability of uranium: The influence of dynamic constraints and market competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monnet, Antoine; Gabriel, Sophie; Percebois, Jacques

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: The availability of natural uranium has a direct impact on the global capability to sustain the demand from nuclear power plants in the coming decades. Therefore, the expansion scenarios of nuclear power should be analysed in conjunction with long-term dynamics of the uranium market. This paper presents three forms of a partial-equilibrium model of the uranium market. All forms consider global demand as exogenous (input scenarios from the literature) and regional estimates of the quantities and the costs of ultimate resources (results obtained from previous work). The three forms differ by the market constraints and the market structure considered. Comparing them highlights the role of the market structure and the impact of some key parameters of the market dynamics on the long-term availability of uranium. An important finding is the influence of two constraints: the anticipation of demand and the significant role played by the correlation between price and exploration expenses in shaping the price trends. In addition, results from simulations highlight different long-term dynamics when the producers are allocated into a limited number of regions (to simulate an oligopoly) compared to a single region (undefined number of players to simulate perfect competition). - Highlights: • The growth rate of demand during the 21st century is a key driver of price trends. • Uncertainties on ultimate resources have a limited impact in expansion scenarios. • The price-exploration correlation is a first-order dynamic constraint. • The anticipation of demand is a strong dynamic constraint related to scarcity rent. • The uranium market is better represented by a constrained oligopoly.

  20. Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Farfán, Miguel Ángel; Olivero, Jesús; Márquez, Ana Luz; Vargas, Juan Mario

    2009-06-01

    Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s

  1. Implantable fiber-optic interface for parallel multisite long-term optical dynamic brain interrogation in freely moving mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doronina-Amitonova, L. V.; Fedotov, I. V.; Ivashkina, O. I.; Zots, M. A.; Fedotov, A. B.; Anokhin, K. V.; Zheltikov, A. M.

    2013-01-01

    Seeing the big picture of functional responses within large neural networks in a freely functioning brain is crucial for understanding the cellular mechanisms behind the higher nervous activity, including the most complex brain functions, such as cognition and memory. As a breakthrough toward meeting this challenge, implantable fiber-optic interfaces integrating advanced optogenetic technologies and cutting-edge fiber-optic solutions have been demonstrated, enabling a long-term optogenetic manipulation of neural circuits in freely moving mice. Here, we show that a specifically designed implantable fiber-optic interface provides a powerful tool for parallel long-term optical interrogation of distinctly separate, functionally different sites in the brain of freely moving mice. This interface allows the same groups of neurons lying deeply in the brain of a freely behaving mouse to be reproducibly accessed and optically interrogated over many weeks, providing a long-term dynamic detection of genome activity in response to a broad variety of pharmacological and physiological stimuli. PMID:24253232

  2. Statistical modeling of the Internet traffic dynamics: To which extent do we need long-term correlations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markelov, Oleg; Nguyen Duc, Viet; Bogachev, Mikhail

    2017-11-01

    Recently we have suggested a universal superstatistical model of user access patterns and aggregated network traffic. The model takes into account the irregular character of end user access patterns on the web via the non-exponential distributions of the local access rates, but neglects the long-term correlations between these rates. While the model is accurate for quasi-stationary traffic records, its performance under highly variable and especially non-stationary access dynamics remains questionable. In this paper, using an example of the traffic patterns from a highly loaded network cluster hosting the website of the 1998 FIFA World Cup, we suggest a generalization of the previously suggested superstatistical model by introducing long-term correlations between access rates. Using queueing system simulations, we show explicitly that this generalization is essential for modeling network nodes with highly non-stationary access patterns, where neglecting long-term correlations leads to the underestimation of the empirical average sojourn time by several decades under high throughput utilization.

  3. Geoarchaeology of Ancient Avlida (Boeotia, Central Greece): a long-term connectivity between human occupation and landscape changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghilardi, M.; Colleu, M.; Fachard, S.; Psomiadis, D.; Demory, F.; Delanghe-Sabatier, D.; Triantaphyllou, M.; Pavlopoulos, K.; Bicket, A.

    2012-04-01

    This paper aims to study the reationships between the human occupation of Ancient Avlida and the landscape configuration for the last thousands years around the site. The geoarchaeological study presented here focus first on the careful scrutiny of the literary sources from Ancient authors such as Strabo and Pausanias who both mention the presence of archaeological remains. The site has been well known for the presence of the Artemis temple and is considered as the starting point of the Achaean ships during the Trojan war. More recently, archaeological researches have been conducted during the 1950's and the 1960's and excavations have been undertaken. However, the landscape configuration was not investigated during archaeological surveys and this paper aims to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental evolution of the ancient bay, gradually silted up along the recent Holocene to create the modern actual lowlands. Two cores, down to a maximum depth of 4.40m and accurately levelled, were studied together for mollusc and microfauna (ostracods and forams) identifications, laser grain size analyses and magnetic susceptibility measurements in order to reveal the facies evolution of the area. In addition, 6 radiocarbon dating (A.M.S. method) helped to obtain a chronostratigraphy sequence. Finally, our results show that the area was an open marine bay from circa 5000 cal. B.C. to the beginning Byzantine period (5th to 6th century A.D.) and during the Trojan war, this site could have hosted eventual military boats in a calm marine environment of deposition.

  4. Dynamic Regulation of Circulating microRNAs During Acute Exercise and Long-Term Exercise Training in Basketball Athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongqin Li

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Emerging evidence indicates the beneficial effects of physical exercise on human health, which depends on the intensity, training time, exercise type, environmental factors, and the personal health status. Conventional biomarkers provide limited insight into the exercise-induced adaptive processes. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs, miRs are dynamically regulated in response to acute exhaustive exercise and sustained rowing, running and cycling exercises. However, circulating miRNAs in response to long-term basketball exercise remains unknown. Here, we enrolled 10 basketball athletes who will attend a basketball season for 3 months. Specifically, circulating miRNAs which were involved in angiogenesis, inflammation and enriched in muscle and/or cardiac tissues were analyzed at baseline, immediately following acute exhaustive exercise and after 3-month basketball matches in competitive male basketball athletes. Circulating miR-208b was decreased and miR-221 was increased after 3-month basketball exercise, while circulating miR-221, miR-21, miR-146a, and miR-210 were reduced at post-acute exercise. The change of miR-146a (baseline vs. post-acute exercise showed linear correlations with baseline levels of cardiac marker CKMB and the changes of inflammation marker Hs-CRP (baseline vs. post-acute exercise. Besides, linear correlation was observed between miR-208b changes (baseline vs. after long-term exercise and AT VO2 (baseline. The changes of miR-221 (baseline vs. after long-term exercise were significantly correlated with AT VO2, peak work load and CK (after 3-month basketball matches. Although further studies are needed, present findings set the stage for defining circulating miRNAs as biomarkers and suggesting their physiological roles in long-term exercise training induced cardiovascular adaptation.

  5. Dynamic Regulation of Circulating microRNAs During Acute Exercise and Long-Term Exercise Training in Basketball Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongqin; Yao, Mengchao; Zhou, Qiulian; Cheng, Yan; Che, Lin; Xu, Jiahong; Xiao, Junjie; Shen, Zhongming; Bei, Yihua

    2018-01-01

    Emerging evidence indicates the beneficial effects of physical exercise on human health, which depends on the intensity, training time, exercise type, environmental factors, and the personal health status. Conventional biomarkers provide limited insight into the exercise-induced adaptive processes. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs, miRs) are dynamically regulated in response to acute exhaustive exercise and sustained rowing, running and cycling exercises. However, circulating miRNAs in response to long-term basketball exercise remains unknown. Here, we enrolled 10 basketball athletes who will attend a basketball season for 3 months. Specifically, circulating miRNAs which were involved in angiogenesis, inflammation and enriched in muscle and/or cardiac tissues were analyzed at baseline, immediately following acute exhaustive exercise and after 3-month basketball matches in competitive male basketball athletes. Circulating miR-208b was decreased and miR-221 was increased after 3-month basketball exercise, while circulating miR-221, miR-21, miR-146a, and miR-210 were reduced at post-acute exercise. The change of miR-146a (baseline vs. post-acute exercise) showed linear correlations with baseline levels of cardiac marker CKMB and the changes of inflammation marker Hs-CRP (baseline vs. post-acute exercise). Besides, linear correlation was observed between miR-208b changes (baseline vs. after long-term exercise) and AT VO 2 (baseline). The changes of miR-221 (baseline vs. after long-term exercise) were significantly correlated with AT VO 2 , peak work load and CK (after 3-month basketball matches). Although further studies are needed, present findings set the stage for defining circulating miRNAs as biomarkers and suggesting their physiological roles in long-term exercise training induced cardiovascular adaptation.

  6. The long-term impact of urbanization on nitrogen patterns and dynamics in Shanghai, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu Baojing; Dong Xiaoli; Peng Changhui; Luo Weidong; Chang Jie; Ge Ying

    2012-01-01

    Urbanization is an important process that alters the regional and global nitrogen biogeochemistry. In this study, we test how long-term urbanization (1952–2004) affects the nitrogen flows, emissions and drivers in the Greater Shanghai Area (GSA) based on the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) approach. Results show that: (1) total nitrogen input to the GSA increased from 57.7 to 587.9 Gg N yr −1 during the period 1952–2004, mainly attributing to fossil fuel combustion (43%), Haber–Bosch nitrogen fixation (31%), and food/feed import (26%); (2) per capita nitrogen input increased from 13.5 to 45.7 kg N yr −1 , while per gross domestic product (GDP) nitrogen input reduced from 22.2 to 0.9 g N per Chinese Yuan, decoupling of nitrogen with GDP; (3) emissions of reactive nitrogen to the environment transformed from agriculture dominated to industry and human living dominated, especially for air pollution. This study provides decision-makers a novel view of nitrogen management. - Highlights: ► Major Nr emission source shifts from agriculture to industry alongside urbanization. ► Decoupling of nitrogen with GDP and urban expansion arises alongside urbanization. ► Nitrogen fluxes increase with population growth and living standard promotion. - Major nitrogen emission source shifts from agriculture to industry and human, and decoupling of nitrogen with GDP and urban expansion arises alongside urbanization.

  7. The long-term impact of urbanization on nitrogen patterns and dynamics in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Baojing; Dong, Xiaoli; Peng, Changhui; Luo, Weidong; Chang, Jie; Ge, Ying

    2012-12-01

    Urbanization is an important process that alters the regional and global nitrogen biogeochemistry. In this study, we test how long-term urbanization (1952-2004) affects the nitrogen flows, emissions and drivers in the Greater Shanghai Area (GSA) based on the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) approach. Results show that: (1) total nitrogen input to the GSA increased from 57.7 to 587.9 Gg N yr(-1) during the period 1952-2004, mainly attributing to fossil fuel combustion (43%), Haber-Bosch nitrogen fixation (31%), and food/feed import (26%); (2) per capita nitrogen input increased from 13.5 to 45.7 kg N yr(-1), while per gross domestic product (GDP) nitrogen input reduced from 22.2 to 0.9 g N per Chinese Yuan, decoupling of nitrogen with GDP; (3) emissions of reactive nitrogen to the environment transformed from agriculture dominated to industry and human living dominated, especially for air pollution. This study provides decision-makers a novel view of nitrogen management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Iron oxides dynamics in a subtropical Brazilian Paleudult under long-term no-tillage management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Vasconcellos Inda

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Replacing conventional tillage (CT with no-tillage (NT management alters the pedoenvironment and the rate of topsoil processes, with possible effects on dissolution processes associated with iron oxides and therefore soil mineralogy. This study aimed to determine the effect of NT on the content and distribution of types of iron oxides in a Rhodic Paleudult in southern Brazil. Soil samples were collected at eight depths within the 0.00-0.80 m layer under CT and NT in a long-term experiment (21 years. Mineralogical identification was conducted by X-ray diffraction (XRD, and the Fe content related to specific types of iron oxides determined by selective dissolution and diffuse-reflectance spectroscopy. Kaolinite, quartz, goethite, hematite, and maghemite were identified in the clay fraction. In the NT-managed soil, there was a decrease in the content of crystalline iron oxides and an increase in the content of poorly crystalline iron oxides with increasing proximity to the soil surface. These results suggest that iron oxides are rearranged in this soil by reductive dissolution of the crystalline types and neoformation of metastable ferrihydrite in topsoil layers, which should be assessed further in laboratory studies.

  9. Binding neutral information to emotional contexts: Brain dynamics of long-term recognition memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura-Bort, Carlos; Löw, Andreas; Wendt, Julia; Moltó, Javier; Poy, Rosario; Dolcos, Florin; Hamm, Alfons O; Weymar, Mathias

    2016-04-01

    There is abundant evidence in memory research that emotional stimuli are better remembered than neutral stimuli. However, effects of an emotionally charged context on memory for associated neutral elements is also important, particularly in trauma and stress-related disorders, where strong memories are often activated by neutral cues due to their emotional associations. In the present study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate long-term recognition memory (1-week delay) for neutral objects that had been paired with emotionally arousing or neutral scenes during encoding. Context effects were clearly evident in the ERPs: An early frontal ERP old/new difference (300-500 ms) was enhanced for objects encoded in unpleasant compared to pleasant and neutral contexts; and a late central-parietal old/new difference (400-700 ms) was observed for objects paired with both pleasant and unpleasant contexts but not for items paired with neutral backgrounds. Interestingly, objects encoded in emotional contexts (and novel objects) also prompted an enhanced frontal early (180-220 ms) positivity compared to objects paired with neutral scenes indicating early perceptual significance. The present data suggest that emotional--particularly unpleasant--backgrounds strengthen memory for items encountered within these contexts and engage automatic and explicit recognition processes. These results could help in understanding binding mechanisms involved in the activation of trauma-related memories by neutral cues.

  10. Dissecting long-term adjustments of photoprotective and photo-oxidative stress acclimation occurring in dynamic light environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shizue Matsubara

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Changes in light intensity directly affect the performance of the photosynthetic apparatus. Light energy absorbed in excess of cells’ needs leads to production of reactive oxygen species and photo-oxidative damage. Excess light in both constant and dynamic environments induces photoprotective acclimation in plants. Distinct sets of signals and regulatory mechanisms are involved in acclimatory adjustment of photoprotection and photosynthesis under constant and dynamic (fluctuating light conditions. We are still far away from drawing a comprehensive picture of acclimatory signal transduction pathways, particularly in dynamic environments. In this perspective article, we propose the use of Arabidopsis plants that produce H2O2 in chloroplasts (GO plants under atmospheric CO2 levels as a tool to study the mechanisms of long-term acclimation to photo-oxidative stress. In our opinion there are new avenues to future investigations on acclimatory adjustments and signal transduction occurring in plants under dynamic light environments.

  11. Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lague, D.; Davy, P.

    2008-12-01

    Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width

  12. A method for the automated long-term monitoring of three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus shoal dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinhappel, T K; Al-Zoubi, A; Al-Diri, B; Burman, O; Dickinson, P; John, L; Wilkinson, A; Pike, T W

    2014-04-01

    This paper describes and evaluates a flexible, non-invasive tagging system for the automated identification and long-term monitoring of individual three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus. The system is based on barcoded tags, which can be reliably and robustly detected and decoded to provide information on an individual's identity and location. Because large numbers of fish can be individually tagged, it can be used to monitor individual- and group-level dynamics within fish shoals. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  13. Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P; Holman, Sheila; Ross, William G; Lyerly, H Kim

    2014-01-01

    The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993-2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths-with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths-with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina.

  14. Long-term dynamics of a lake ecosystem and the implications for radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundblad, B.; Bergstroem, U.; Evan, S.; Puigdomenech, I.

    1988-09-01

    Long-term ageing and physical transformation of ecosystems may occur while a continuous leakage of radionuclides from a repository is going on. This will imply additional uncertainties as regards the consequences for exposure to man. The turnover of nuclides during the ageing of a lake ecosystem and its successive development into agricultural land is simulated using a multicompartment system. Parameters of a major importance for the distribution and reconcentration of radionuclides supplied into the lake as surface inflow are identified. Seven radioniclides occuring in high-level waste aer treated. These are I-129, Cs-135, Ra-226, Pa-231, U-234, Np-237 and Pu-239. The activity distribution is highly dependent on the sorption behaviour of the radionuclides. The major pools for radionuclide distribution are lake outflows 15-97% (Pu-239 - I-129) and deeo lake sediment 2-84% (I-129 - Pu-239). Performed dose calculations for different time periods of the lake evolution showed that the individual doses increase with a factor of hundred for Pu-239 during the life-time of the lake. For comparison doses have also been calculated for two differenct well scenarios in order to discuss the possibility of generic conversion factors from release to the biosphere and resulting individual doses. However, for all nuclides the obtained doses from exposure from a well situated in the discharge area to the lake were higher than for those obtained from the turnover of lake. For rough estimates the obtained doses can be used as standards when studying the impact on man from the turnover of long-lived radionuclides during the evolution of this type of ecosystem. (authors)

  15. Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P; Holman, Sheila; Ross, William G; Lyerly, H Kim

    2014-01-01

    Background The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. Materials and methods We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993–2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Results Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths–with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths–with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. Conclusion Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina. PMID:25018627

  16. The dynamics of blood biochemical parameters in cosmonauts during long-term space flights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markin, Andrei; Strogonova, Lubov; Balashov, Oleg; Polyakov, Valery; Tigner, Timoty

    Most of the previously obtained data on cosmonauts' metabolic state concerned certain stages of the postflight period. In this connection, all conclusions, as to metabolism peculiarities during the space flight, were to a large extent probabilistic. The purpose of this work was study of metabolism characteristics in cosmonauts directly during long-term space flights. In the capillary blood samples taken from a finger, by "Reflotron IV" biochemical analyzer, "Boehringer Mannheim" GmbH, Germany, adapted to weightlessness environments, the activity of GOT, GPT, CK, gamma-GT, total and pancreatic amylase, as well as concentration of hemoglobin, glucose, total bilirubin, uric acid, urea, creatinine, total, HDL- and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides had been determined. HDL/LDL-cholesterol ratio also was computed. The crewmembers of 6 main missions to the "Mir" orbital station, a total of 17 cosmonauts, were examined. Biochemical tests were carryed out 30-60 days before lounch, and in the flights different stages between the 25-th and the 423-rd days of flights. In cosmonauts during space flight had been found tendency to increase, in compare with basal level, GOT, GPT, total amylase activity, glucose and total cholesterol concentration, and tendency to decrease of CK activity, hemoglobin, HDL-cholesterol concentration, and HDL/LDL — cholesterol ratio. Some definite trends in variations of other determined biochemical parameters had not been found. The same trends of mentioned biochemical parameters alterations observed in majority of tested cosmonauts, allows to suppose existence of connection between noted metabolic alterations with influence of space flight conditions upon cosmonaut's body. Variations of other studied blood biochemical parameters depends on, probably, pure individual causes.

  17. Age, origin and evolution of Antarctic debris-covered glaciers: Implications for landscape evolution and long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Sean Leland

    Antarctic debris-covered glaciers are potential archives of long-term climate change. However, the geomorphic response of these systems to climate forcing is not well understood. To address this concern, I conducted a series of field-based and numerical modeling studies in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica (MDV), with a focus on Mullins and Friedman glaciers. I used data and results from geophysical surveys, ice-core collection and analysis, geomorphic mapping, micro-meteorological stations, and numerical-process models to (1) determine the precise origin and distribution of englacial and supraglacial debris within these buried-ice systems, (2) quantify the fundamental processes and feedbacks that govern interactions among englacial and supraglacial debris, (3) establish a process-based model to quantify the inventory of cosmogenic nuclides within englacial and supraglacial debris, and (4) isolate the governing relationships between the evolution of englacial /supraglacial debris and regional climate forcing. Results from 93 field excavations, 21 ice cores, and 24 km of ground-penetrating radar data show that Mullins and Friedman glaciers contain vast areas of clean glacier ice interspersed with inclined layers of concentrated debris. The similarity in the pattern of englacial debris bands across both glaciers, along with model results that call for negligible basal entrainment, is best explained by episodic environmental change at valley headwalls. To constrain better the timing of debris-band formation, I developed a modeling framework that tracks the accumulation of cosmogenic 3He in englacial and supraglacial debris. Results imply that ice within Mullins Glacier increases in age non-linearly from 12 ka to ˜220 ka in areas of active flow (up to >> 1.6 Ma in areas of slow-moving-to-stagnant ice) and that englacial debris bands originate with a periodicity of ˜41 ka. Modeling studies suggest that debris bands originate in synchronicity with changes in

  18. Ecological landscape elements: long-term monitoring in Great Britain, the Countryside Survey 1978-2007 and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Claire M.; Bunce, Robert G. H.; Norton, Lisa R.; Maskell, Lindsay C.; Smart, Simon M.; Scott, W. Andrew; Henrys, Peter A.; Howard, David C.; Wright, Simon M.; Brown, Michael J.; Scott, Rod J.; Stuart, Rick C.; Watkins, John W.

    2018-04-01

    The Countryside Survey (CS) of Great Britain (GB) provides a unique and statistically robust series of datasets, consisting of an extensive set of repeated ecological measurements at a national scale, covering a time span of 29 years. CS was first undertaken in 1978 to provide a baseline for ecological and land use change monitoring in the rural environment of GB, following a stratified random design, based on 1 km squares. Originally, eight random 1 km squares were drawn from each of 32 environmental classes, thus comprising 256 sample squares in the 1978 survey. The number of these sites increased to 382 in 1984, 506 in 1990, 569 in 1998 and 591 in 2007. Detailed information regarding vegetation types and land use was mapped in all five surveys, allowing reporting by defined standard habitat classifications. Additionally, point and linear landscape features (such as trees and hedgerows) are available from all surveys after 1978. From these stratified, randomly located sample squares, information can be converted into national estimates, with associated error terms. Other data, relating to soils, freshwater and vegetation, were also sampled on analogous dates. However, the present paper describes only the surveys of landscape features and habitats. The resulting datasets provide a unique, comprehensive, quantitative ecological coverage of extent and change in these features in GB. Basic results are presented and their implications discussed. However, much opportunity for further analyses remains. Data from each of the survey years are available via the following DOIs: Landscape area data 1978: https://doi.org/10.5285/86c017ba-dc62-46f0-ad13-c862bf31740e" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5285/86c017ba-dc62-46f0-ad13-c862bf31740e, 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/b656bb43-448d-4b2c-aade-7993aa243ea3" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5285/b656bb43-448d-4b2c-aade-7993aa243ea3, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/94f664e5-10f2-4655-bfe6-44d745f5dca7" target

  19. Long-term fragmentation effects on the distribution and dynamics of canopy gaps in a tropical montane forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas R. Vaughn; Gregory P. Asner; Christian P. Giardina

    2015-01-01

    Fragmentation alters forest canopy structure through various mechanisms, which in turn drive subsequent changes to biogeochemical processes and biological diversity. Using repeated airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) mappings, we investigated the size distribution and dynamics of forest canopy gaps across a topical montane forest landscape in Hawaii naturally...

  20. Long-term forest-savannah dynamics in the Bolivian Amazon: implications for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayle, Francis E; Langstroth, Robert P; Fisher, Rosie A; Meir, Patrick

    2007-02-28

    The aim of this paper is to evaluate the respective roles of past changes in climate, geomorphology and human activities in shaping the present-day forest-savannah mosaic of the Bolivian Amazon, and consider how this palaeoecological perspective may help inform conservation strategies for the future. To this end, we review a suite of palaeoecological and archaeological data from two distinct forest-savannah environments in lowland Bolivia: Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (NKMNP) on the Precambrian Shield and the 'Llanos de Moxos' in the Beni basin. We show that they contain markedly contrasting legacies of past climatic, geomorphic and anthropogenic influences between the last glacial period and the Spanish Conquest. In NKMNP, increasing precipitation caused evergreen rainforest expansion, at the expense of semi-deciduous dry forest and savannahs, over the last three millennia. In contrast, pre-Hispanic indigenous cultures were instrumental in facilitating recent forest expansion in the Llanos de Moxos by building a vast network of earthworks. Insights from Mid-Holocene palaeodata, together with ecological observations and modelling studies, suggest that there will be progressive replacement of rainforest by dry forest and savannah in NKMNP over the twenty-first century in response to the increased drought predicted by general circulation models. Protection of the latitudinal landscape corridors may be needed to facilitate these future species reassortments. However, devising appropriate conservation strategies for the Llanos de Moxos will be more difficult due to its complex legacy of Palaeo-Indian impact. Without fully understanding the degree to which its current biota has been influenced by past native cultures, the type and intensity of human land use appropriate for this landscape in the future will be difficult to ascertain.

  1. Fractional-order leaky integrate-and-fire model with long-term memory and power law dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teka, Wondimu W; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Mondal, Argha

    2017-09-01

    Pyramidal neurons produce different spiking patterns to process information, communicate with each other and transform information. These spiking patterns have complex and multiple time scale dynamics that have been described with the fractional-order leaky integrate-and-Fire (FLIF) model. Models with fractional (non-integer) order differentiation that generalize power law dynamics can be used to describe complex temporal voltage dynamics. The main characteristic of FLIF model is that it depends on all past values of the voltage that causes long-term memory. The model produces spikes with high interspike interval variability and displays several spiking properties such as upward spike-frequency adaptation and long spike latency in response to a constant stimulus. We show that the subthreshold voltage and the firing rate of the fractional-order model make transitions from exponential to power law dynamics when the fractional order α decreases from 1 to smaller values. The firing rate displays different types of spike timing adaptation caused by changes on initial values. We also show that the voltage-memory trace and fractional coefficient are the causes of these different types of spiking properties. The voltage-memory trace that represents the long-term memory has a feedback regulatory mechanism and affects spiking activity. The results suggest that fractional-order models might be appropriate for understanding multiple time scale neuronal dynamics. Overall, a neuron with fractional dynamics displays history dependent activities that might be very useful and powerful for effective information processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kravchenko J

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Julia Kravchenko,1 Igor Akushevich,2 Amy P Abernethy,3 Sheila Holman,4 William G Ross Jr,5 H Kim Lyerly1,6 1Department of Surgery, 2Center for Population Health and Aging, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Duke University, Durham, 4Division of Air Quality, North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Raleigh, 5Nicholas School of the Environment, 6Department of Pathology, Duke University Medical Center, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA Background: The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. Materials and methods: We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, carbon monoxide (CO, and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10 using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993–2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Results: Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths–with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths–with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only

  3. Distinguishing patterns in the dynamics of long-term medication use by Markov analysis: beyond persistence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lammers Jan-Willem J

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to accurately distinguish gaps of varying length in drug treatment for chronic conditions from discontinuation without resuming therapy, short-term observation does not suffice. Thus, the use of inhalation corticosteroids (ICS in the long-term, during a ten-year period is investigated. To describe medication use as a continuum, taking into account the timeliness and consistency of refilling, a Markov model is proposed. Methods Patients, that filled at least one prescription in 1993, were selected from the PHARMO medical record linkage system (RLS containing >95% prescription dispensings per patient originating from community pharmacy records of 6 medium-sized cities in the Netherlands. The probabilities of continuous use, the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in each year of follow-up, and medication free periods were assessed by Markov analysis. Stratified analysis according to new use was performed. Results The transition probabilities of the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in the subsequent year of follow-up, were assessed for each year of follow-up and for the total study period. The change of transition probabilities in time was evaluated, e.g. the probability of continuing ICS use of starters in the first two years (51% of follow-up increased to more than 70% in the following years. The probabilities of different patterns of medication use were assessed: continuous use (7.7%, cumulative medication gaps (1–8 years 69.1% and discontinuing (23.2% during ten-year follow-up for new users. New users had lower probability of continuous use (7.7% and more variability in ICS refill patterns than previous users (56%. Conclusion In addition to well-established methods in epidemiology to ascertain compliance and persistence, a Markov model could be useful to further specify the variety of possible patterns of medication use within the continuum of adherence. This Markov model describes variation in

  4. Long-Term Rotational Dynamics of Defunct Earth-Orbiting Satellites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — While extensive research has been conducted to predict the trajectories of defunct high altitude satellites, the attitude dynamics of these objects are not well...

  5. Dynamics of microbial community during the extremely long-term fermentation process of a traditional soy sauce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Deng, Yue; Jin, Yulan; Liu, Yanxi; Xia, Baixue; Sun, Qun

    2017-08-01

    Soy sauce produced by long-term natural fermentation is a traditional specialty in Asia, with a reputation for superior quality and rich flavour. In this study, both culture-dependent and culture-independent approaches were used to investigate the microbial diversity and community dynamics during an extremely long-term (up to 4 years) natural fermentation of Xianshi Soy Sauce, a national intangible cultural heritage. Genera of Bacillus, Aspergillus and Cladosporium were detected by both methods above. The relative abundance of the genera Bacillus and Weissella was significantly higher in the late stage than in the early one, while the genera Klebsiella and Shimwellia were opposite (P fermentation time, while there was a fair homogeneousness among samples of the same year, especially during the late fermentation stage. The clustering analysis tended to separate the fermented mashes of the 4th year from the earlier stages, suggesting the necessity of the long fermentation period for developing distinctive microbiota and characteristic quality-related compounds. This is the first report to explore the temporal changes in microbial dynamics over a period of 4 years in traditional fermentation of soy sauce, and this work illustrated the importance of isolation of appropriate strains to be used as starter cultures in brewing processes. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  6. The Dynamic Relationship between Growth and Profitability under Long-Term Recession: The Case of Korean Construction Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seungkyu Yoo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We conducted an empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between growth and profitability for small- and medium-sized construction companies that faced long-term economic stagnation in Korea. The period of the analysis spanned 2000 to 2014, and the full period was divided into two halves: before the 2008 global financial crisis and after it. Our empirical model was based on the system generalized method of moments model, and 264 construction companies were used as the study sample. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. (1 A profitability-driven management strategy limits company growth, thus prolonging the economic downturn; (2 When the macroeconomic environment is relatively stable, high growth in the previous period fosters profitability in the current period. This implies that the phenomenon of dynamic increasing returns is present in the Korean construction industry, and learning through growth enhances productivity and profitability. Consequentially, a strategy oriented towards short-term profitability (popular with small- and medium-sized Korean construction companies makes the corporate management less resilient, causing them to select “de-growth” during the long-term stagnation by decreasing their scale of operations. Accordingly, it is important for companies to maintain the balance between growth and profitability.

  7. A Portable Dynamic Laser Speckle System for Sensing Long-Term Changes Caused by Treatments in Painting Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Alberto J; González-Peña, Rolando J; Braga, Roberto; Perles, Ángel; Pérez-Marín, Eva; García-Diego, Fernando J

    2018-01-11

    Dynamic laser speckle (DLS) is used as a reliable sensor of activity for all types of materials. Traditional applications are based on high-rate captures (usually greater than 10 frames-per-second, fps). Even for drying processes in conservation treatments, where there is a high level of activity in the first moments after the application and slower activity after some minutes or hours, the process is based on the acquisition of images at a time rate that is the same in moments of high and low activity. In this work, we present an alternative approach to track the drying process of protective layers and other painting conservation processes that take a long time to reduce their levels of activity. We illuminate, using three different wavelength lasers, a temporary protector (cyclododecane) and a varnish, and monitor them using a low fps rate during long-term drying. The results are compared to the traditional method. This work also presents a monitoring method that uses portable equipment. The results present the feasibility of using the portable device and show the improved sensitivity of the dynamic laser speckle when sensing the long-term process for drying cyclododecane and varnish in conservation.

  8. A Portable Dynamic Laser Speckle System for Sensing Long-Term Changes Caused by Treatments in Painting Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Alberto J.; Braga, Roberto; Perles, Ángel; Pérez–Marín, Eva; García-Diego, Fernando J.

    2018-01-01

    Dynamic laser speckle (DLS) is used as a reliable sensor of activity for all types of materials. Traditional applications are based on high-rate captures (usually greater than 10 frames-per-second, fps). Even for drying processes in conservation treatments, where there is a high level of activity in the first moments after the application and slower activity after some minutes or hours, the process is based on the acquisition of images at a time rate that is the same in moments of high and low activity. In this work, we present an alternative approach to track the drying process of protective layers and other painting conservation processes that take a long time to reduce their levels of activity. We illuminate, using three different wavelength lasers, a temporary protector (cyclododecane) and a varnish, and monitor them using a low fps rate during long-term drying. The results are compared to the traditional method. This work also presents a monitoring method that uses portable equipment. The results present the feasibility of using the portable device and show the improved sensitivity of the dynamic laser speckle when sensing the long-term process for drying cyclododecane and varnish in conservation. PMID:29324692

  9. Long-term dynamics of Coxiella burnetii in farmed red deer (Cervus elaphus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David eGonzález-Barrio

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Several aspects of the dynamics of Coxiella burnetii that are relevant for the implementation of control strategies in ruminant herds with endemic Q-fever are unknown. We designed a longitudinal study to monitor the dynamics of exposure to C. burnetii in a red deer herd with endemic infection in order to allow the design of Q fever specific control approaches. Other relevant aspects of the dynamics of C. burnetii - the effect of herd immune status, age, season and early infection on exposure, the average half-life of antibodies, the presence and duration of maternal humoral immunity and the age of first exposure - were analysed. The dynamics of C. burnetii in deer herds seems to be modulated by host herd and host individual factors and by particular host life history traits. Red deer females become exposed to C. burnetii at the beginning of their second year since maternal antibodies protect them after birth and during the main pathogen shedding season - at the end of spring-early summer. Infection pressure varies between years, probably associated to herd immunity effects, determining inter-annual variation in the risk of exposure. These results suggest that any strategy applied to control C. burnetii in deer herds should be designed to induce immunity in their first year of life immediately after losing maternal antibodies. The short average life of C. burnetii antibodies suggests that any protection based upon humoral immunity would require re-vaccination every 6 months.

  10. Long-Term Bacterial Dynamics in a Full-Scale Drinking Water Distribution System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prest, E.I.E.D.; Weissbrodt, D.G.; Hammes, F; van Loosdrecht, Mark C.M.; Vrouwenvelder, J.S.

    2016-01-01

    Large seasonal variations in microbial drinking water quality can occur in distribution networks, but are often not taken into account when evaluating results from short-term water sampling campaigns. Temporal dynamics in bacterial community characteristics were investigated during a two-year

  11. Predicting long-term and short-term tidal flat morphodynamics using a dynamic equilibrium theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, Z.; Wang, Z.B.; Zitman, T.J.; Stive, M.J.F.; Bouma, T.J.

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic equilibrium theory is a fruitful concept, which we use to systematically explain the tidal flat morphodynamic response to tidal currents, wind waves, sediment supply, and other sedimentological drivers. This theory stems from a simple analytical model that derives the tide- or wave-dominated

  12. Predicting nitrogen and acidity effects on long-term dynamics of dissolved organic matter

    OpenAIRE

    Rowe, E.C.; Tipping, E.; Posch, M.; Oulehle, Filip; Cooper, D.M.; Jones, T.G.; Burden, A.; Hall, J.; Evans, C.D.

    2014-01-01

    Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes may relate to changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution. We integrated existing models of vegetation growth and soil organic matter turnover, acid-base dynamics, and organic matter mobility, to form the ‘MADOC’ model. After calibrating parameters governing interactions between pH and DOC dissolution using control treatments on two field experiments, MADOC reproduced responses of pH and DOC to additions of acidifying and alkalising solutions. ...

  13. Soil erosion dynamics response to landscape pattern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouyang, W.; Skidmore, A.K.; Hao, F.; Wang, T.

    2010-01-01

    Simulating soil erosion variation with a temporal land use database reveals long-term fluctuations in landscape patterns, as well as priority needs for soil erosion conservation. The application of a multi-year land use database in support of a Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) led to an accurate

  14. Could the landscape preserve traces of a deep underground nuclear waste repository over the very long term? What we can learn from the archaeology of ancient mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmand, Dominique; BRULHET, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Prof. Dominique Harmand presented a study conducted on behalf of Andra that focused on the archaeology of abandoned underground mines in order to illustrate how ancient human activities have left traces in the landscape. Old mines often have left some traces at surface such as slag heaps and parts of shafts over relatively long timescales, up to thousands of years. Geological disposal projects are equally likely to leave traces in the landscape over time. In the case of the French Cigeo project (Centre industriel de stockage geologique), research into the past and future geological evolution of the area shows that traces of heads of shafts and inclined tunnels, and filled excavations will likely still exist at surface in the distant future. However, as these traces could be confused with other human and natural traces of all ages, steps need to be taken to ensure that they are correctly interpreted. A suggested approach to facilitate the correct interpretation in the future consists in marking the site, and especially its long-lasting traces, with long-lived anthropological elements, such as small engraved ceramic pieces. These could be placed around the repository's surface buildings, but also in drill holes that would be a few metres deep. As a result of the natural erosion of the site, they would progressively reach the surface of the area in the long term

  15. The dynamical structure of the MEO region: long-term stability, chaos, and transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daquin, Jérôme; Rosengren, Aaron J.; Alessi, Elisa Maria; Deleflie, Florent; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.; Rossi, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    It has long been suspected that the Global Navigation Satellite Systems exist in a background of complex resonances and chaotic motion; yet, the precise dynamical character of these phenomena remains elusive. Recent studies have shown that the occurrence and nature of the resonances driving these dynamics depend chiefly on the frequencies of nodal and apsidal precession and the rate of regression of the Moon's nodes. Woven throughout the inclination and eccentricity phase space is an exceedingly complicated web-like structure of lunisolar secular resonances, which become particularly dense near the inclinations of the navigation satellite orbits. A clear picture of the physical significance of these resonances is of considerable practical interest for the design of disposal strategies for the four constellations. Here we present analytical and semi-analytical models that accurately reflect the true nature of the resonant interactions, and trace the topological organization of the manifolds on which the chaotic motions take place. We present an atlas of FLI stability maps, showing the extent of the chaotic regions of the phase space, computed through a hierarchy of more realistic, and more complicated, models, and compare the chaotic zones in these charts with the analytical estimation of the width of the chaotic layers from the heuristic Chirikov resonance-overlap criterion. As the semi-major axis of the satellite is receding, we observe a transition from stable Nekhoroshev-like structures at three Earth radii, where regular orbits dominate, to a Chirikov regime where resonances overlap at five Earth radii. From a numerical estimation of the Lyapunov times, we find that many of the inclined, nearly circular orbits of the navigation satellites are strongly chaotic and that their dynamics are unpredictable on decadal timescales.

  16. Herbivore Impact on Tundra Plant Community Dynamics Using Long-term Remote Sensing Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Q.; Engstrom, R.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

    2014-12-01

    Arctic tundra biome is now experiencing dramatic environmental changes accentuated by summer sea-ice decline, permafrost thaw, and shrub expansion. Multi-decadal time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, a spectral metric of vegetation productivity) shows an overall "greening" trend across the Arctic tundra biome. Regional trends in climate plausibly explain large-scale patterns of increasing plant productivity, as diminished summer sea-ice extent warms the adjacent land causing tundra vegetation to respond positively (increased photosynthetic aboveground biomass). However, at more local scales, there is a great deal of spatial variability in NDVI trends that likely reflects differences in hydrology and soil conditions, disturbance history, and use by wildlife and humans. Particularly, habitat use by large herbivores, such as reindeer and caribou, has large impacts on vegetation dynamics at local and regional scales, but the role of herbivores in modulating the response of vegetation to warming climate has received little attention. This study investigates regional tundra plant community dynamics within inhabits of different sizes of wild caribou/reindeer herds across the Arctic using GIMMS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) 3g data product. The Taimyr herd in Russia is one of the largest herds in the world with a population increase from 450,000 in 1975 to about 1 million animals in 2000. The population of the porcupine caribou herd has fluctuated in the past three decades between 100,000 and 180,000. Time-series of the maximum NDVI within the inhabit area of the Taimyr herd has increased about 2% per decade over the past three decades, while within the inhabit area of the Porcupine herd the maximum NDVI has increased about 5% per decade. Our results indicate that the impact of large herbivores can be detected from space and further analyses on seasonal dynamics of vegetation indices and herbivore behavior may provide more

  17. Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kozubek, Michal; Križan, Peter; Laštovička, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 2 (2017), s. 279-294 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-03909S; GA ČR(CZ) GA15-24688S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : climatology * general circulation * middle atmosphere dynamic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 1.610, year: 2016 http://www.ann-geophys.net/35/279/2017/angeo-35-279-2017.html

  18. An analysis of the long-term stability of the particle dynamics in hadron storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruening, O.S.

    1994-05-01

    This thesis extends the stability analysis of the particle motion in a storage ring and estimates the diffusion rates well inside the dynamic aperture. The calculation of the drift and diffusion coefficients focuses on an application to the proton storage ring in HERA, where the proton beam lifetime drops considerably after the proton and electron beams are brought to collision. The analysis shows that the combined effect of slow and fast modulation frequencies leads to an increased emittance growth in the storage ring. HERA the slow frequency components are caused by ground motion in the HERA tunnel and the fast frequency components by ripples in the power supplies. The thesis provides upper limits for the modultion depths of a fast tune modulation which result in tolerable growth rates for the proton emittance. The analytically calculated drift coefficients agree numerical simulations for the particle dynamics. A comparison of the calculated drift coefficients with those measured in the HERA proton storage ring shows that the analyzed mechanism can lead to growth rates of the same order of magnitude as the ones measured during the luminosity operation in the HERA storage ring. Analytical estimates for the proton growth rates predict a high sensitivity to the particle diffusion on the frequency components of the fast fast tune modulation. This prediction was confirmed by a subsequent modulation experiment in the proton storage ring of HERA, where an external tune modulation with fast frequency components led to a drastic increase in the growth rates

  19. Long-Term Bacterial Dynamics in a Full-Scale Drinking Water Distribution System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E I Prest

    Full Text Available Large seasonal variations in microbial drinking water quality can occur in distribution networks, but are often not taken into account when evaluating results from short-term water sampling campaigns. Temporal dynamics in bacterial community characteristics were investigated during a two-year drinking water monitoring campaign in a full-scale distribution system operating without detectable disinfectant residual. A total of 368 water samples were collected on a biweekly basis at the water treatment plant (WTP effluent and at one fixed location in the drinking water distribution network (NET. The samples were analysed for heterotrophic plate counts (HPC, Aeromonas plate counts, adenosine-tri-phosphate (ATP concentrations, and flow cytometric (FCM total and intact cell counts (TCC, ICC, water temperature, pH, conductivity, total organic carbon (TOC and assimilable organic carbon (AOC. Multivariate analysis of the large dataset was performed to explore correlative trends between microbial and environmental parameters. The WTP effluent displayed considerable seasonal variations in TCC (from 90 × 103 cells mL-1 in winter time up to 455 × 103 cells mL-1 in summer time and in bacterial ATP concentrations (<1-3.6 ng L-1, which were congruent with water temperature variations. These fluctuations were not detected with HPC and Aeromonas counts. The water in the network was predominantly influenced by the characteristics of the WTP effluent. The increase in ICC between the WTP effluent and the network sampling location was small (34 × 103 cells mL-1 on average compared to seasonal fluctuations in ICC in the WTP effluent. Interestingly, the extent of bacterial growth in the NET was inversely correlated to AOC concentrations in the WTP effluent (Pearson's correlation factor r = -0.35, and positively correlated with water temperature (r = 0.49. Collecting a large dataset at high frequency over a two year period enabled the characterization of previously

  20. Long-Term Bacterial Dynamics in a Full-Scale Drinking Water Distribution System

    KAUST Repository

    Prest, E. I.; Weissbrodt, D. G.; Hammes, F.; Van Loosdrecht, M. C M; Vrouwenvelder, Johannes S.

    2016-01-01

    Large seasonal variations in microbial drinking water quality can occur in distribution networks, but are often not taken into account when evaluating results from short-term water sampling campaigns. Temporal dynamics in bacterial community characteristics were investigated during a two-year drinking water monitoring campaign in a full-scale distribution system operating without detectable disinfectant residual. A total of 368 water samples were collected on a biweekly basis at the water treatment plant (WTP) effluent and at one fixed location in the drinking water distribution network (NET). The samples were analysed for heterotrophic plate counts (HPC), Aeromonas plate counts, adenosine-tri-phosphate (ATP) concentrations, and flow cytometric (FCM) total and intact cell counts (TCC, ICC), water temperature, pH, conductivity, total organic carbon (TOC) and assimilable organic carbon (AOC). Multivariate analysis of the large dataset was performed to explore correlative trends between microbial and environmental parameters. The WTP effluent displayed considerable seasonal variations in TCC (from 90 × 103 cells mL-1 in winter time up to 455 × 103 cells mL-1 in summer time) and in bacterial ATP concentrations (<1–3.6 ng L-1), which were congruent with water temperature variations. These fluctuations were not detected with HPC and Aeromonas counts. The water in the network was predominantly influenced by the characteristics of the WTP effluent. The increase in ICC between the WTP effluent and the network sampling location was small (34 × 103 cells mL-1 on average) compared to seasonal fluctuations in ICC in the WTP effluent. Interestingly, the extent of bacterial growth in the NET was inversely correlated to AOC concentrations in the WTP effluent (Pearson’s correlation factor r = -0.35), and positively correlated with water temperature (r = 0.49). Collecting a large dataset at high frequency over a two year period enabled the characterization of previously

  1. Long-Term Bacterial Dynamics in a Full-Scale Drinking Water Distribution System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prest, E I; Weissbrodt, D G; Hammes, F; van Loosdrecht, M C M; Vrouwenvelder, J S

    2016-01-01

    Large seasonal variations in microbial drinking water quality can occur in distribution networks, but are often not taken into account when evaluating results from short-term water sampling campaigns. Temporal dynamics in bacterial community characteristics were investigated during a two-year drinking water monitoring campaign in a full-scale distribution system operating without detectable disinfectant residual. A total of 368 water samples were collected on a biweekly basis at the water treatment plant (WTP) effluent and at one fixed location in the drinking water distribution network (NET). The samples were analysed for heterotrophic plate counts (HPC), Aeromonas plate counts, adenosine-tri-phosphate (ATP) concentrations, and flow cytometric (FCM) total and intact cell counts (TCC, ICC), water temperature, pH, conductivity, total organic carbon (TOC) and assimilable organic carbon (AOC). Multivariate analysis of the large dataset was performed to explore correlative trends between microbial and environmental parameters. The WTP effluent displayed considerable seasonal variations in TCC (from 90 × 103 cells mL-1 in winter time up to 455 × 103 cells mL-1 in summer time) and in bacterial ATP concentrations (water temperature variations. These fluctuations were not detected with HPC and Aeromonas counts. The water in the network was predominantly influenced by the characteristics of the WTP effluent. The increase in ICC between the WTP effluent and the network sampling location was small (34 × 103 cells mL-1 on average) compared to seasonal fluctuations in ICC in the WTP effluent. Interestingly, the extent of bacterial growth in the NET was inversely correlated to AOC concentrations in the WTP effluent (Pearson's correlation factor r = -0.35), and positively correlated with water temperature (r = 0.49). Collecting a large dataset at high frequency over a two year period enabled the characterization of previously undocumented seasonal dynamics in the distribution

  2. Long-Term Bacterial Dynamics in a Full-Scale Drinking Water Distribution System

    KAUST Repository

    Prest, E. I.

    2016-10-28

    Large seasonal variations in microbial drinking water quality can occur in distribution networks, but are often not taken into account when evaluating results from short-term water sampling campaigns. Temporal dynamics in bacterial community characteristics were investigated during a two-year drinking water monitoring campaign in a full-scale distribution system operating without detectable disinfectant residual. A total of 368 water samples were collected on a biweekly basis at the water treatment plant (WTP) effluent and at one fixed location in the drinking water distribution network (NET). The samples were analysed for heterotrophic plate counts (HPC), Aeromonas plate counts, adenosine-tri-phosphate (ATP) concentrations, and flow cytometric (FCM) total and intact cell counts (TCC, ICC), water temperature, pH, conductivity, total organic carbon (TOC) and assimilable organic carbon (AOC). Multivariate analysis of the large dataset was performed to explore correlative trends between microbial and environmental parameters. The WTP effluent displayed considerable seasonal variations in TCC (from 90 × 103 cells mL-1 in winter time up to 455 × 103 cells mL-1 in summer time) and in bacterial ATP concentrations (<1–3.6 ng L-1), which were congruent with water temperature variations. These fluctuations were not detected with HPC and Aeromonas counts. The water in the network was predominantly influenced by the characteristics of the WTP effluent. The increase in ICC between the WTP effluent and the network sampling location was small (34 × 103 cells mL-1 on average) compared to seasonal fluctuations in ICC in the WTP effluent. Interestingly, the extent of bacterial growth in the NET was inversely correlated to AOC concentrations in the WTP effluent (Pearson’s correlation factor r = -0.35), and positively correlated with water temperature (r = 0.49). Collecting a large dataset at high frequency over a two year period enabled the characterization of previously

  3. Long-term stable time integration scheme for dynamic analysis of planar geometrically exact Timoshenko beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Tien Long; Sansour, Carlo; Hjiaj, Mohammed

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, an energy-momentum method for geometrically exact Timoshenko-type beam is proposed. The classical time integration schemes in dynamics are known to exhibit instability in the non-linear regime. The so-called Timoshenko-type beam with the use of rotational degree of freedom leads to simpler strain relations and simpler expressions of the inertial terms as compared to the well known Bernoulli-type model. The treatment of the Bernoulli-model has been recently addressed by the authors. In this present work, we extend our approach of using the strain rates to define the strain fields to in-plane geometrically exact Timoshenko-type beams. The large rotational degrees of freedom are exactly computed. The well-known enhanced strain method is used to avoid locking phenomena. Conservation of energy, momentum and angular momentum is proved formally and numerically. The excellent performance of the formulation will be demonstrated through a range of examples.

  4. The dynamics of long-term transgene expression in engrafted neural stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jean-Pyo; Tsai, David J; In Park, Kook; Harvey, Alan R; Snyder, Evan Y

    2009-07-01

    To assess the dynamics and confounding variables that influence transgene expression in neural stem cells (NSCs), we generated distinct NSC clones from the same pool of cells, carrying the same reporter gene transcribed from the same promoter, transduced by the same retroviral vector, and transplanted similarly at the same differentiation state, at the same time and location, into the brains of newborn mouse littermates, and monitored in parallel for over a year in vivo (without immunosuppression). Therefore, the sole variables were transgene chromosomal insertion site and copy number. We then adapted and optimized a technique that tests, at the single cell level, persistence of stem cell-mediated transgene expression in vivo based on correlating the presence of the transgene in a given NSC's nucleus (by fluorescence in situ hybridization [FISH]) with the frequency of that transgene's product within the same cell (by combined immunohistochemistry [IHC]). Under the above-stated conditions, insertion site is likely the most contributory variable dictating transgene downregulation in an NSC after 3 months in vivo. We also observed that this obstacle could be effectively and safely counteracted by simple serial infections (as few as three) inserting redundant copies of the transgene into the prospective donor NSC. (The preservation of normal growth control mechanisms and an absence of tumorigenic potential can be readily screened and ensured ex vivo prior to transplantation.) The combined FISH/IHC strategy employed here for monitoring the dynamics of transgene expression at the single cell level in vivo may be used for other types of therapeutic and housekeeping genes in endogenous and exogenous stem cells of many organs and lineages. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  5. Long-term composition dynamics of PAH-containing NAPLs and implications for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, C.A.; Knightes, C.D.; Brown, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Subsurface contaminants such as coal tar, creosote, diesel fuel, and other petroleum-derived materials typically exist as very complex chemical mixtures. Risk assessment is useful for site management if a single metric can represent the composition-dependent risk profile of the mixture. This paper examines the factors governing human health risk assessment for multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A model is presented describing the interdependence of the dissolution rates of individual compounds and the shifts in the NAPL composition that occur due to the large differences in aqueous solubilities. The model also accounts for solidification of the less soluble NAPL constituents. Thirty-year numerical simulations describe composition dynamics for natural environmental processes as well as three remediation processes: pump-and-treat, bioremediation, and solvent extraction. Carcinogenic risk due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater at the source is estimated, and its dependence on contaminant removal and NAPL composition shifts is described. When composition dynamics are slow, a compound like naphthalene has great potential to contribute to risk because it may persist in groundwater. When there is significant depletion of the lower molecular weight compounds, the risk is dominated by contributions from compounds such as benzo[a]pyrene. Remediation technologies have the greatest potential for risk reduction if they are effective in removing the more carcinogenic, high molecular weight compounds. Because PAHs can contribute to risk for different reasons and because of the interdependence of their behaviors, compositional approaches lead to better risk predictions for PAHs than simple lumped metrics such as total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)

  6. The role of reconsolidation and the dynamic process of long-term memory formation and storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina M Alberini

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available It is becoming increasingly clear that the processes of memory formation and storage are exquisitely dynamic. Elucidating the nature and temporal evolution of the biological changes that accompany encoding, storage and retrieval is key to understand memory formation. For explicit or medial temporal lobe-dependent memories that form after a discrete event and are stored for a long time, the physical changes underlying the encoding and processing of the information (memory trace or engram remain in a fragile state for some time. However, over time, the new memory becomes increasingly resistant to disruption until it is consolidated. Retrieval or reactivation of an apparently consolidated memory can render the memory labile again, and reconsolidation is the process that occurs to mediate its restabilization. Reconsolidation also evolves with the age of the memory: Young memories are sensitive to postreactivation disruption, but older memories are more resistant. Why does a memory become labile again if it is retrieved or reactivated? Here I suggest that the main function of reconsolidation is to contribute to the lingering consolidation process and mediate memory strengthening. I also discuss the literature and results regarding the influence of the passage of time on the reconsolidation of memory. These points have important implications for the use of reconsolidation in therapeutic settings.

  7. Long-term tritium monitoring to study river basin dynamics: case of the Danube River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Pradeep; Araguas, Luis; Groening, Manfred; Newman, Brent; Kurttas, Turker; Papesch, Wolfgang; Rank, Dieter; Suckow, Axel; Vitvar, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    During the last five decades, isotope concentrations (O-18, D, tritium) have been extensively measured in precipitation, surface- and ground-waters to derive information on residence times of water in aquifers and rivers, recharge processes, and groundwater dynamics. The unique properties of the isotopes of the water molecule as tracers are especially useful for understanding the retention of water in river basins, which is a key parameter for assessing water resources availability, addressing quality issues, investigating interconnections between surface- and ground-waters, and for predicting possible hydrological shifts related to human activities and climate change. Detailed information of the spatial and temporal changes of isotope contents in precipitation at a global scale was one of the initial aims of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), which has provided a detailed chronicle of tritium and stable isotope contents in precipitation since the 1960s. Accurate information of tritium contents resulting of the thermonuclear atmospheric tests in the 1950s and 1960s is available in GNIP for stations distributed world-wide. Use of this dataset for hydrological dating or as an indicator of recent recharge has been extensive in shallow groundwaters. However, its use has been more limited in surface waters, due to the absence of specific monitoring programmes of tritium and stable isotopes in rivers, lakes and other surface water bodies. The IAEA has recently been compiling new and archival isotope data measured in groundwaters, rivers, lakes and other water bodies as part of its web based Water Isotope System for Data Analysis, Visualization and Electronic Retrieval (WISER). Recent additions to the Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers (GNIR) contained within WISER now make detailed studies in rivers possible. For this study, we are re-examining residence time estimates for the Danube in central Europe. Tritium data are available in GNIR from 15

  8. Dynamics and cultural specifics of information needs under conditions of long-term space flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feichtinger, Elena; Shved, Dmitry; Gushin, Vadim

    Life in conditions of space flight or chamber study with prolonged isolation is associated with lack of familiar stimuli (sensory deprivation), monotony, significant limitation of communication, and deficit of information and media content (Myasnikov V.I., Stepanova S.I. et al., 2000). Fulfillment of a simulation experiment or flight schedule implies necessity of performance of sophisticated tasks and decision making with limited means of external support. On the other hand, the “stream” of information from the Mission Control (MC) and PI’s (reminders about different procedures to be performed, requests of reports, etc.) is often inadequate to communication needs of crewmembers. According to the theory of “information stress” (Khananashvili M.M., 1984), a distress condition could be formed if: a) it’s necessary to process large amounts of information and make decisions under time pressure; b) there is a prolonged deficit of necessary (e.g. for decision making) information. Thus, we suppose that one of the important goals of psychological support of space or space simulation crews should be forming of favorable conditions of information environment. For that purpose, means of crew-MC information exchange (quantitative characteristics and, if possible, content of radiograms, text and video messages, etc.) should be studied, as well as peculiarities of the crewmembers’ needs in different information and media content, and their reactions to incoming information. In the space simulation experiment with 520-day isolation, communication of international crew with external parties had been studied. Dynamics of quantitative and content characteristics of the crew’s messages was related to the experiment’s stage, presence of “key” events in the schedule (periods of high autonomy, simulated “planetary landing”, etc.), as well as to events not related to the experiment (holidays, news, etc.). It was shown that characteristics of information exchange

  9. Litter quality impacts short- but not long-term soil carbon dynamics in soil aggregate fractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentile, Roberta; Vanlauwe, Bernard; Six, Johan

    2011-04-01

    Complex molecules are presumed to be preferentially stabilized as soil organic carbon (SOC) based on the generally accepted concept that the chemical composition of litter is a major factor in its rate of decomposition. Hence, a direct link between litter quality and SOC quantity has been assumed, accepted, and ultimately incorporated in SOC models. Here, however, we present data from an incubation and field experiment that refutes the influence of litter quality on the quantity of stabilized SOC. Three different qualities of litter (Tithonia diversifolia, Calliandra calothyrsus, and Zea mays stover; 4 Mg C x ha(-1) yr(-1)) with and without the addition of mineral N fertilizer (0 or 120 kg N x ha(-1)season(-1) were added to a red clay Humic Nitisol in a 3-yr field trial and a 1.5-yr incubation experiment. The litters differed in their concentrations of N, lignin, and polyphenols with the ratio of (lignin + polyphenols): N ranging from 3.5 to 9.8 for the field trial and from 2.3 to 4.0 for the incubation experiment in the order of T. diversifolia stabilized after three annual additions in the field trial. Even within the most sensitive soil aggregate fractions, SOC contents and C:N ratios did not differ with litter quality, indicating that litter quality did not influence the mechanisms by which SOC was stabilized. While increasing litter quality displayed faster decomposition and incorporation of C into soil aggregates after 0.25 yr in the incubation study, all litters resulted in equivalent amounts of C stabilized in the soil after 1.5 yr, further corroborating the results of the field trial. The addition of N fertilizer did not affect SOC stabilization in either the field or the incubation trial. Thus, we conclude that, while litter quality controls shorter-term dynamics of C decomposition and accumulation in the soil, longer-term SOC patterns cannot be predicted based on initial litter quality effects. Hence, the formation and stabilization of SOC is more

  10. Long-term dynamic loading improves the mechanical properties of chondrogenic mesenchymal stem cell-laden hydrogel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AH Huang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs are an attractive cell source for cartilage tissue engineering given their ability to undergo chondrogenesis in 3D culture systems. Mechanical forces play an important role in regulating both cartilage development and MSC chondrogenic gene expression, however, mechanical stimulation has yet to enhance the mechanical properties of engineered constructs. In this study, we applied long-term dynamic compression to MSC-seeded constructs and assessed whether varying pre-culture duration, loading regimens and inclusion of TGF-beta3 during loading would influence functional outcomes and these phenotypic transitions. Loading initiated before chondrogenesis decreased functional maturation, although chondrogenic gene expression increased. In contrast, loading initiated after chondrogenesis and matrix elaboration further improved the mechanical properties of MSC-based constructs, but only when TGF-beta3 levels were maintained and under specific loading parameters. Although matrix quantity was not affected by dynamic compression, matrix distribution, assessed histologically and by FT-IRIS analysis, was significantly improved on the micro- (pericellular and macro- (construct expanse scales. Further, whole genome expression profiling revealed marked shifts in the molecular topography with dynamic loading. These results demonstrate, for the first time, that dynamic compressive loading initiated after a sufficient period of chondro-induction and with sustained TGF-beta exposure enhances matrix distribution and the mechanical properties of MSC-seeded constructs.

  11. Long-term structural and biomass dynamics of virgin Tsuga canadensis-Pinus strobus forests after hurricane disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Anthony W; Orwig, David A; Foster, David R; Barker Plotkin, Audrey; Schoonmaker, Peter K; Wagner, Maggie R

    2017-03-01

    The development of old-growth forests in northeastern North America has largely been within the context of gap-scale disturbances given the rarity of stand-replacing disturbances. Using the 10-ha old-growth Harvard Tract and its associated 90-year history of measurements, including detailed surveys in 1989 and 2009, we document the long-term structural and biomass development of an old-growth Tsuga canadensis-Pinus strobus forest in southern New Hampshire, USA following a stand-replacing hurricane in 1938. Measurements of aboveground biomass pools were integrated with data from second- and old-growth T. canadensis forests to evaluate long-term patterns in biomass development following this disturbance. Ecosystem structure across the Tract prior to the hurricane exhibited a high degree of spatial heterogeneity with the greatest levels of live tree basal area (70-129 m 2 /ha) on upper west-facing slopes where P. strobus was dominant and intermixed with T. canadensis. Live-tree biomass estimates for these stratified mixtures ranged from 159 to 503 Mg/ha at the localized, plot scale (100 m 2 ) and averaged 367 Mg/ha across these portions of the landscape approaching the upper bounds for eastern forests. Live-tree biomass 71 years after the hurricane is more uniform and lower in magnitude, with T. canadensis currently the dominant overstory tree species throughout much of the landscape. Despite only one living P. strobus stem in the 2009 plots (and fewer than five stems known across the entire 10-ha area), the detrital legacy of this species is pronounced with localized accumulations of coarse woody debris exceeding 237.7-404.2 m 3 /ha where this species once dominated the canopy. These patterns underscore the great sizes P. strobus attained in pre-European landscapes and its great decay resistance relative to its forest associates. Total aboveground biomass pools in this 71-year-old forest (255 Mg/ha) are comparable to those in modern old-growth ecosystems

  12. Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröger, Joachim; Rumohr, Heye

    2006-05-01

    Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m - 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.

  13. Examination of the rheological properties of stirred joghurt during the long-term storage by using dynamic oscillation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milica Vilušić

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available In this work the rheological properties of stirred yoghurt during the longterm storage at 4 and 8°C were investigated. The optimal quantity of additives, in order to increase dry matter content (whole milk powder and whey protein-lactalbumin, was preliminary determined and the fermentation was performed. During 42 days, i.e., 1st, 7th, 14th, 21st, 28th, 35th and 42nd day of storage of stirred yoghurt, in refrigerator at 4 and 8°C, the changes of pH value, acidity and rheological properties by using of dynamic oscillation method were observed. Results of this work indicated that an addition of whole milk powder and whey protein have an influence on rheological properties of stirred yoghurt. The long-term storage of stirred yoghurt and the results of dynamic oscilations showed permanently higher G’storage (elasticity modulus, where elastic properties of viscoelastic products dominate, in comparison with the G” loss (viscosity modulus. Increased moduls of elasticy and viscosity, as function of time, permanently occurs at pH value 4.00 and lower, as an indication of alteration of long casein chains in the coagulum structure. Different temperatures of storage had no influence on changes of rheological properties of examinated types of stirred yoghur. The relation of above mentioned moduls of elasticy and viscosity kept the same increasing tendency.

  14. Long-term evaluation of orbital dynamics in the Sun-planet system considering axial-tilt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhtiari, Majid; Daneshjou, Kamran

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, the axial-tilt (obliquity) effect of planets on the motion of planets’ orbiter in prolonged space missions has been investigated in the presence of the Sun gravity. The proposed model is based on non-simplified perturbed dynamic equations of planetary orbiter motion. From a new point of view, in this work, the dynamic equations regarding a disturbing body in elliptic inclined three-dimensional orbit are derived. The accuracy of this non-simplified method is validated with dual-averaged method employed on a generalized Earth-Moon system. It is shown that the neglected short-time oscillations in dual-averaged technique can accumulate and propel to remarkable errors in the prolonged evolution. After validation, the effects of the planet’s axial-tilt on eccentricity, inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of the orbiter are investigated. Moreover, a generalized model is provided to study the effects of third-body inclination and eccentricity on orbit characteristics. It is shown that the planet’s axial-tilt is the key to facilitating some significant changes in orbital elements in long-term mission and short-time oscillations must be considered in accurate prolonged evaluation.

  15. Feedbacks between subglacial dynamics and long-term glacial landscape evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brædstrup, Christian; Egholm, D.L.; Ugelvig, Sofie Vej

    focus this presentation on feedbacks between the evolving bed topography and the subglacial erosion patterns. We have performed our experiments with different sliding and erosion laws, including highly non-linear rules representing coulomb-type slip at the bed (Schoof, 2010) and a quarrying model...

  16. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  17. Dynamic sensorimotor planning during long-term sequence learning: the role of variability, response chunking and planning errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstynen, Timothy; Phillips, Jeff; Braun, Emily; Workman, Brett; Schunn, Christian; Schneider, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Many everyday skills are learned by binding otherwise independent actions into a unified sequence of responses across days or weeks of practice. Here we looked at how the dynamics of action planning and response binding change across such long timescales. Subjects (N = 23) were trained on a bimanual version of the serial reaction time task (32-item sequence) for two weeks (10 days total). Response times and accuracy both showed improvement with time, but appeared to be learned at different rates. Changes in response speed across training were associated with dynamic changes in response time variability, with faster learners expanding their variability during the early training days and then contracting response variability late in training. Using a novel measure of response chunking, we found that individual responses became temporally correlated across trials and asymptoted to set sizes of approximately 7 bound responses at the end of the first week of training. Finally, we used a state-space model of the response planning process to look at how predictive (i.e., response anticipation) and error-corrective (i.e., post-error slowing) processes correlated with learning rates for speed, accuracy and chunking. This analysis yielded non-monotonic association patterns between the state-space model parameters and learning rates, suggesting that different parts of the response planning process are relevant at different stages of long-term learning. These findings highlight the dynamic modulation of response speed, variability, accuracy and chunking as multiple movements become bound together into a larger set of responses during sequence learning.

  18. Introducing litter quality to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS: Effects on short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portner, Hanspeter; Wolf, Annett; Rühr, Nadine; Bugmann, Harald

    2010-05-01

    Many biogeochemical models have been applied to study the response of the carbon cycle to changes in climate, whereby the process of carbon uptake (photosynthesis) has usually gained more attention than the equally important process of carbon release by respiration. The decomposition of soil organic matter is driven by a combination of factors like soil temperature, soil moisture and litter quality. We have introduced dependence on litter substrate quality to heterotrophic soil respiration in the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS [Smith et al.(2001)]. We were interested in differences in model projections before and after the inclusion of the dependency both in respect to short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics. The standard implementation of heterotrophic soil respiration in LPJ-GUESS is a simple carbon three-pool model whose decay rates are dependent on soil temperature and soil moisture. We have added dependence on litter quality by coupling LPJ-GUESS to the soil carbon model Yasso07 [Tuomi et al.(2008)]. The Yasso07 model is based on an extensive number of measurements of litter decomposition of forest soils. Apart from the dependence on soil temperature and soil moisture, the Yasso07 model uses carbon soil pools representing different substrate qualities: acid hydrolyzable, water soluble, ethanol soluble, lignin compounds and humus. Additionally Yasso07 differentiates between woody and non-woody litter. In contrary to the reference implementation of LPJ-GUESS, in the new model implementation, the litter now is divided according to its specific quality and added to the corresponding soil carbon pool. The litter quality thereby differs between litter source (leaves, roots, stems) and plant functional type (broadleaved, needleleaved, grass). The two contrasting model implementations were compared and validated at one specific CarboEuropeIP site (Lägern, Switzerland) and on a broader scale all over Switzerland. Our focus lay on the soil respiration for the years 2006

  19. Long-term monitoring of streambed sedimentation and scour in a dynamic stream based on streambed temperature time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebok, Eva; Engesgaard, Peter; Duque, Carlos

    2017-08-24

    This study presented the monitoring and quantification of streambed sedimentation and scour in a stream with dynamically changing streambed based on measured phase and amplitude of the diurnal signal of sediment temperature time series. With the applied method, changes in streambed elevation were estimated on a sub-daily scale with 2-h intervals without continuous maintenance of the measurement system, thus making both high temporal resolution and long-term monitoring of streambed elevations possible. Estimates of streambed elevation showed that during base flow conditions streambed elevation fluctuates by 2-3 cm. Following high stream stages, scouring of 2-5 cm can be observed even at areas with low stream flow and weak currents. Our results demonstrate that weather variability can induce significant changes in the stream water and consequently sediment temperatures influencing the diurnal temperature signal in such an extent that the sediment thickness between paired temperature sensors were overestimated by up to 8 cm. These observations have significant consequences on the design of vertical sensor spacing in high-flux environments and in climates with reduced diurnal variations in air temperature.

  20. Identifying ecological "sweet spots" underlying cyanobacteria functional group dynamics from long-term observations using a statistical machine learning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, N.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Phlips, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Diversity in the eco-physiological adaptations of cyanobacteria genera creates challenges for water managers who are tasked with developing appropriate actions for controlling not only the intensity and frequency of cyanobacteria blooms, but also reducing the potential for blooms of harmful taxa (e.g., toxin producers, N2 fixers). Compounding these challenges, the efficacy of nutrient management strategies (phosphorus-only versus nitrogen-and-phosphorus) for cyanobacteria bloom abatement is the subject of an ongoing debate, which increases uncertainty associated with bloom mitigation decision-making. In this work, we analyze a unique long-term (17-year) dataset composed of monthly observations of cyanobacteria genera abundances, zooplankton abundances, water quality, and flow from Lake George, a bloom-impacted flow-through lake of the St. Johns River (FL, USA). Using the Random Forests machine learning algorithm, an assumption-free ensemble modeling approach, the dataset was evaluated to quantify and characterize relationships between environmental conditions and seven cyanobacteria groupings: five genera (Anabaena, Cylindrospermopsis, Lyngbya, Microcystis, and Oscillatoria) and two functional groups (N2 fixers and non-fixers). Results highlight the selectivity of nitrogen in describing genera and functional group dynamics, and potential for physical effects to limit the efficacy of nutrient management as a mechanism for cyanobacteria bloom mitigation.

  1. Sampling strategies and stopping criteria for stochastic dual dynamic programming: a case study in long-term hydrothermal scheduling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homem-de-Mello, Tito [University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Chicago, IL (United States); Matos, Vitor L. de; Finardi, Erlon C. [Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, LabPlan - Laboratorio de Planejamento de Sistemas de Energia Eletrica, Florianopolis (Brazil)

    2011-03-15

    The long-term hydrothermal scheduling is one of the most important problems to be solved in the power systems area. This problem aims to obtain an optimal policy, under water (energy) resources uncertainty, for hydro and thermal plants over a multi-annual planning horizon. It is natural to model the problem as a multi-stage stochastic program, a class of models for which algorithms have been developed. The original stochastic process is represented by a finite scenario tree and, because of the large number of stages, a sampling-based method such as the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm is required. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. Firstly, we study the application of two alternative sampling strategies to the standard Monte Carlo - namely, Latin hypercube sampling and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo - for the generation of scenario trees, as well as for the sampling of scenarios that is part of the SDDP algorithm. Secondly, we discuss the formulation of stopping criteria for the optimization algorithm in terms of statistical hypothesis tests, which allows us to propose an alternative criterion that is more robust than that originally proposed for the SDDP. We test these ideas on a problem associated with the whole Brazilian power system, with a three-year planning horizon. (orig.)

  2. Mainstream upflow nitritation-anammox system with hybrid anaerobic pretreatment: Long-term performance and microbial community dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaojin; Sun, Shan; Yuan, Heyang; Badgley, Brian D; He, Zhen

    2017-11-15

    Mainstream nitritation-anammox is of strong interest to energy- and resource-efficient domestic wastewater treatment. However, there lack in-depth studies of pretreatment, tests of actual wastewater, and examination of long-term performance. Herein, an upflow nitritation-anammox granular reactor has been investigated to treat primary effluent with a hybrid anaerobic reactor (HAR) as pretreatment for more than 300 days. This system achieved 92% of COD removal, 75% of which was accomplished by the HAR, and had an average final effluent COD concentration of 22 mg L -1 . More than 90% of ammonium was removed in the nitritation-anammox reactor, achieving a nitrogen removal rate of 81.0 g N m -3  d -1 in the last stage. The accumulation of sulfate-reducing bacteria in the HAR evidenced the effect of sulfate on COD removal and subsequent nitrogen removal. Anammox bacteria (predominantly Ca. Jettenia asiatica) accounted for up to 40.2% of total granular communities, but their abundance decreased over time in the suspended communities. The dynamics of major metabolisms and functional genes involved in nitrogen conversion were predicted by PICRUSt based on the taxonomic data, providing more insights into the functions of the microbial communities. These results have demonstrated the effectiveness and importance of anaerobic pretreatment to successful mainstream nitritation-anammox. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Long-Term Vegetation Dynamics in a Megadiverse Hotspot: The Ice-Age Record of a Pre-montane Forest of Central Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Encarni Montoya

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical ecosystems play a key role in many aspects of Earth system dynamics currently of global concern, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity. To accurately understand complex tropical systems it is necessary to parameterise key ecological aspects, such as rates of change (RoC, species turnover, dynamism, resilience, or stability. To obtain a long-term (>50 years perspective on these ecological aspects we must turn to the fossil record. However, compared to temperate zones, collecting continuous sedimentary archives in the lowland tropics is often difficult due to the active landscape processes, with potentially frequent volcanic, tectonic, and/or fluvial events confounding sediment deposition, preservation, and recovery. Consequently, the nature, and drivers, of vegetation dynamics during the last glacial are barely known from many non-montane tropical landscapes. One of the first lowland Amazonian locations from which palaeoecological data were obtained was an outcrop near Mera (Ecuador. Mera was discovered, and analysed, by Paul Colinvaux in the 1980s, but his interpretation of the data as indicative of a forested glacial period were criticised based on the ecology and age control. Here we present new palaeoecological data from a lake located less than 10 km away from Mera. Sediment cores raised from Laguna Pindo (1250 masl; 1°27′S, 78°05′W have been shown to span the late last glacial period [50–13 cal kyr BP (calibrated kiloyears before present]. The palaeoecological information obtained from Laguna Pindo indicate that the region was characterised by a relatively stable plant community, formed by taxa nowadays common at both mid and high elevations. Miconia was the dominant taxon until around 30 cal kyr BP, when it was replaced by Hedyosmum, Asteraceae and Ilex among other taxa. Heat intolerant taxa including Podocarpus, Alnus, and Myrica peaked around the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 21 cal kyr BP. The results

  4. Interactions between lithology and biology drive the long-term response of stream chemistry to major hurricanes in a tropical landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.H. McDowell; R.L. Brereton; F.N. Scatena; J.B. Shanley; N.V. Brokaw; A.E. Lugo

    2013-01-01

    Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in many global biogeochemical cycles, yet long-term records of tropical stream chemistry and its response to disturbance events such as severe storms and droughts are rare. Here we document the long-term variability in chemistry of two streams in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico over a period of 27 years. Our two focal...

  5. Dynamic monitoring of landscape patterns and ecological processes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Landscape patterns and ecological processes have been in long-term research focus in the field of landscape ecology, but how to measure their quantitative relations is still open. This work chooses the Hulunbeier grassland as the study area where ecosystem shows high vulnerability, frequent evolvement of landscape ...

  6. The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

    2016-01-04

    Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

  7. LONG-TERM MONITORING OF WATER DYNAMICS IN THE SAHEL REGION USING THE MULTI-SAR-SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bertram

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Fresh water is a scarce resource in the West-African Sahel region, seasonally influenced by droughts and floods. Particularly in terms of climate change, the importance of wetlands increases for flora, fauna, human population, agriculture, livestock and fishery. Hence, access to open water is a key factor. Long-term monitoring of water dynamics is of great importance, especially with regard to the spatio-temporal extend of wetlands and drylands. It can predict future trends and facilitate the development of adequate management strategies. Lake Tabalak, a Ramsar wetland of international importance, is one of the most significant ponds in Niger and a refuge for waterbirds. Nevertheless, human population growth increased the pressure on this ecosystem, which is now degrading for all uses. The main objective of the study is a long-term monitoring of the Lake Tabalak’s water dynamics to delineate permanent and seasonal water bodies, using weather- and daytime-independent multi-sensor and multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR data available for the study area. Data of the following sensors from 1993 until 2016 are used: Sentinel-1A, TerraSARX, ALOS PALSAR-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-1/2, and ERS-1/2. All SAR data are processed with the Multi-SAR-System, unifying the different characteristics of all above mentioned sensors in terms of geometric, radiometric and polarimetric resolution to a consistent format. The polarimetric representation in Kennaugh elements allows fusing single-polarized data acquired by older sensors with multi-polarized data acquired by current sensors. The TANH-normalization guarantees a consistent and therefore comparable description in a closed data range in terms of radiometry. The geometric aspect is solved by projecting all images to an earth-fixed coordinate system correcting the brightness by the help of the incidence angle. The elevation model used in the geocoding step is the novel global model produced by the

  8. Long-term simulations of water and isoproturon dynamics in a heterogeneous soil receiving different urban waste composts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipović, Vilim; Coquet, Yves; Pot, Valérie; Romić, Davor; Benoit, Pierre; Houot, Sabine

    2016-04-01

    Implementing various compost amendments and tillage practices has a large influence on soil structure and can create heterogeneities at the plot/field scale. While tillage affects soil physical properties, compost application influences also chemical properties like pesticide sorption and degradation. A long-term field experiment called "QualiAgro" (https://www6.inra.fr/qualiagro_eng/), conducted since 1998 aims at characterizing the agronomic value of urban waste composts and their environmental impacts. A modeling study was carried out using HYDRUS-2D for the 2004-2010 period to confront the effects of two different compost types combined with the presence of heterogeneities due to tillage in terms of water and isoproturon dynamics in soil. A municipal solid waste compost (MSW) and a co-compost of sewage sludge and green wastes (SGW) have been applied to experimental plots and compared to a control plot without any compost addition (CONT). Two wick lysimeters, 5 TDR probes, and 7 tensiometers were installed per plot to monitor water and isoproturon dynamics. In the ploughed layer, four zones with differing soil structure were identified: compacted clods (Δ), non-compacted soil (Γ), interfurrows (IF), and the plough pan (PP). These different soil structural zones were implemented into HYDRUS-2D according to field observation and using measured soil hydraulic properties. Lysimeter data showed (2004 -2010 period) that the CONT plot had the largest cumulative water outflow (1388 mm) compared to the MSW plot (962 mm) and SGW plot (979 mm). HYDRUS-2D was able to describe cumulative water outflow after calibration of soil hydraulic properties, for the whole 2004-2010 period with a model efficiency value of 0.99 for all three plots. Isoproturon leaching showed had the largest cumulative value in the CONT plot (21.31 μg) while similar cumulated isoproturon leachings were measured in the SGW (0.663 μg) and MSW (0.245 μg) plots. The model was able to simulate

  9. Trial-to-trial dynamics of selective long-term-memory retrieval with continuously changing retrieval targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kizilirmak, Jasmin M; Rösler, Frank; Khader, Patrick H

    2014-10-01

    How do we control the successive retrieval of behaviorally relevant information from long-term memory (LTM) without being distracted by other potential retrieval targets associated to the same retrieval cues? Here, we approach this question by investigating the nature of trial-by-trial dynamics of selective LTM retrieval, i.e., in how far retrieval in one trial has detrimental or facilitatory effects on selective retrieval in the following trial. Participants first learned associations between retrieval cues and targets, with one cue always being linked to three targets, forming small associative networks. In successive trials, participants had to access either the same or a different target belonging to either the same or a different cue. We found that retrieval times were faster for targets that had already been relevant in the previous trial, with this facilitatory effect being substantially weaker when the associative network changed in which the targets were embedded. Moreover, staying within the same network still had a facilitatory effect even if the target changed, which became evident in a relatively higher memory performance in comparison to a network change. Furthermore, event-related brain potentials (ERPs) showed topographically and temporally dissociable correlates of these effects, suggesting that they result from combined influences of distinct processes that aid memory retrieval when relevant and irrelevant targets change their status from trial to trial. Taken together, the present study provides insight into the different processing stages of memory retrieval when fast switches between retrieval targets are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Long-term dynamics of a high-latitude coral reef community at Sodwana Bay, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, S. N.; Schleyer, M. H.

    2017-06-01

    Dynamics in reef cover, mortality and recruitment success of a high-latitude coral community in South Africa were studied over 20 yr with the aim to detect the effects of climate change. Coral communities at this locality are the southernmost on the African continent, non-accretive, attain high biodiversity and are dominated by soft corals. Long-term monitoring within fixed transects on representative reef was initiated in 1993 and has entailed annual photo-quadrat surveys and hourly temperature logging. Although sea temperatures rose by 0.15 °C p.a. at the site up to 2000, they have subsequently been decreasing, and the overall trend based on monthly means has been a significant decrease of 0.03 °C p.a. Despite this, minor bleaching was encountered in the region during the 1998 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event, again in the summer of 2000/2001 and in 2005. A significant decreasing trend of 0.95% p.a. in soft coral cover has been evident throughout the monitoring period, attributable to significant decreases in Sinularia and Lobophytum spp. cover. In contrast, hard coral cover gradually and significantly increased up to 2005, this being largely attributable to increases in cover by Acropora spp. Recruitment success and mortality of both soft and hard corals has displayed high inter-annual variability with increasing but non-significant trends in the last 5 yr. The reduction in soft coral cover has been more consistent and greater than that of hard corals, but it is difficult at this stage to attribute this to changes in water quality, acidification-linked accretion or temperature.

  11. Long-term dynamics of investment decisions in electricity markets with variable renewables development and adequacy objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petitet, Marie

    2016-01-01

    In liberalised electricity systems, power markets are expected to ensure the long-term coordination of investments in order to guarantee security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness. In the reference energy-only market, it relies on the ability of power markets - where the hourly price is aligned with the marginal cost of the system - to provide an adequate price-signal for investors. However, in practice, questions have been raised about its ability to trigger investments in Low-Carbon Technologies (LCT) including in particular Renewable Energy Sources of Electricity (RES-E), and its ability to ensure capacity adequacy. After a characterisation of these market failures, this dissertation tackles the two research topics within a methodological framework based on a System Dynamics model developed to simulate private investment decisions in power markets. First, the results show that substituting out-of-market support mechanisms for RES-E by market-based investments helped by the sole implementation of a carbon price appears as a feasible solution to trigger RES-E development providing that there is a political commitment on a high carbon price. Second, it also appears that the energy-only market with price cap is ineffective to ensure capacity adequacy in a context of mature markets with conventional thermal power plants under transition paths which involve a stable electricity demand thank to energy efficiency efforts and the exogenous development of RES-E thanks to support mechanisms in the absence of a high and fixed carbon price. Adding a capacity market or removing the price cap both bring benefits in terms of Loss Of Load Expectation (LOLE) and social welfare. Moreover, considering two various energy transition scenarios and different assumptions about the risk aversion of private investors, the capacity market is identified as the best option for regulators among the considered market designs. (author) [fr

  12. Long-term landscape evolution of the South Atlantic "passive" continental margin in Eastern Argentina using apatite fission-track thermochronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Sabrina; Kollenz, Sebastian; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2015-04-01

    To understand the evolution of the "passive" continental margin in Argentina low temperature thermochronology is an appropriate method, which might lead to new insights in this area. The Tandilia System, also called Sierras Septentrionales, is located south of the Río de la Plato Craton in eastern Argentina in the state of Buenos Aires. North of the hills the Salado basin is located whereas the Claromecó basin is situated south of the mountain range. In contrary to most basins along the South American "passive" continental margin, the Tandilia-System and the neighbouring basins trend perpendicular to the coast line. The topography is fairly flat with altitudes up to 350 m. The igneous-metamorphic basement is pre-Proterozoic in age and build up of mainly granitic-tonalitic gneisses, migmatites, amphibolites, some ultramafic rocks and granitoid plutons. It is overlain by a series of Neoproterozoic to early Paleozoic sedimentary rocks (Cingolani 2011), like siliciclastic rocks, dolostones, shales and limestones (Demoulin 2005). The aim of the study is to quantify the long-term landscape evolution of the "passive" continental margin in eastern Argentina in terms of thermal, exhumation and tectonic evolution. For that purpose, samples were taken from the basement of the Sierra Septentrionales and analyzed with the apatite fission-track method. Further 2-D thermokinematic modeling was conducted with the computer code HeFTy (Ketcham 2005; Ketcham 2007; Ketcham et al. 2009). Because there are different hypotheses in literature regarding the geological evolution of this area two different models were generated, one after Demoulin et al. (2005) and another after Zalba et al.(2007). All samples were taken from the Neoproterozoic igneous-metamorphic basement. Apatite fission-track ages range from 101.6 (9.4) to 228.9 (22.3) Ma, and, therefore, are younger than their formation age, indicating all samples have been thermally reset. Six samples accomplished enough confined

  13. Long-term dynamics of the state of the fouling community in the Odessa Bay (Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Y. Varigin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the long-term dynamics of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the coastal fouling community of OdessaBay(Black Sea for the last 40 years. It compares the data on this community obtained by different researchers in 1976, 1994 and 2016 . The number of species included in the fouling community decreased from 103 (1976 to 43 (1994 and then rose to 62 by 2016. As a possible reason for this reduction in the species composition of the community the influence of large-scale anthropogenic eutrophication, which was already strongly evident in the north-western part of the Black Seain the 1970s, is proposed. This phenomenon was accompanied by periodic outbreaks of mass abundance of planktonic algae, secondary water pollution, the development of hypoxia and a frequent suffocation effect on the benthos, which caused the disappearance from the community of 41 species of invertebrates. The reduction in the number of species affected representatives of the following taxons: Polychaeta, Amphipoda, Gastropoda and Bivalvia. Currently, the core of the community includes the same species of invertebrates as in the past. It is based on Bivalvia mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis. Among the attached forms , Mytilaster lineatus (Bivalvia and Amphibalanus improvisus (Cirripedia play a leading role, and among mobile – representatives of Polychaeta, Isopoda, Amphipoda and Gastropoda. It is shown that 10 of the 25 species, recorded the first time for this community in the 1970s, have become abundant in modern conditions. The primacy in the relative density in the composition of the community at the present time has passed from the amphipod crustaceans to bivalve molluscs. The highest relative biomass, both in the past and in the present-day conditions was observed in representatives of Bivalvia. The structure of the resistance of the fouling community to the effects of unstable environmental factors specific to the coastal zone is

  14. Probing the Gaps: A Synthesis of Well-known and Lesser-known Hydrological Feedbacks Influencing Vegetation Patterning and Long-term Geomorphic Change in Low-gradient Fluvial Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, L.; Christensen, A.; Harvey, J. W.; Ma, H.; Newman, S.; Saunders, C.; Twilley, R.

    2017-12-01

    Emergence of vegetation patterning in fluvial landscapes is a classic example of how autogenic processes can drive long term fluvial and geomorphic adjustments in aquatic ecosystems. Studies elucidating the physics of flow through vegetation patches have produced understanding of how patterning in topography and vegetation commonly emerges and what effect it has on long term geomorphic change. However, with regard to mechanisms underlying pattern existence and resilience, several knowledge gaps remain, including the role of landscape-scale flow-vegetation feedbacks, feedbacks that invoke additional biogeochemical or biological agents, and determination of the relative importance of autogenic processes relative to external drivers. Here we provide a synthesis of the processes over a range of scales known to drive vegetation patterning and sedimentation in low gradient fluvial landscapes, emphasizing recent field and modeling studies in the Everglades, FL and Wax Lake Delta, LA that address these gaps. In the Everglades, while flow routing and sediment redistribution at the patch scale is known to be a primary driver of vegetation pattern emergence, landscape-scale routing of flow, as driven by the landscape's connectivity, can set up positive feedbacks that influence the rate of pattern degradation. Recent flow release experiments reveal that an additional feedback, involving phosphorus concentrations, flow, and floating vegetation communities that are abundant under low phosphorus, low flow conditions further stabilizes the alternative landscape states established through local scale sediment redistribution. Biogeochemistry-vegetation-sediment feedbacks may also be important for geomorphic development of newly emerging landscapes such as the Wax Lake Delta. There, fine sediment deposition shapes hydrogeomorphic zones with vegetation patterns that stimulate the growth of biofilm, while biofilm characteristics override the physical characteristics of vegetation

  15. Dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in three Mediterranean woody species following long-term experimental drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosas, Teresa; Galiano, Lucía; Ogaya, Romà; Peñuelas, Josep; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Stored non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) have been proposed as a key determinant of drought resistance in plants. However, the evidence for this role is controversial, as it comes mostly from observational, short-term studies. Here, we take advantage of a long-term experimental throughfall reduction to elucidate the response of NSC to increased drought 14 years after the beginning of the treatment in three Mediterranean resprouter trees (Quercus ilex L., Arbutus unedo L. and Phillyrea latifolia L.). In addition, we selected 20 Q. ilex individuals outside the experimental plots to directly assess the relationship between defoliation and NSC at the individual level. We measured the seasonal course of NSC concentrations in leaves, branches and lignotuber in late winter, late spring, summer, and autumn 2012. Total concentrations of NSC were highest in the lignotuber for all species. In the long-term drought experiment we found significant depletion in concentrations of total NSC in treatment plots only in the lignotuber of A. unedo. At the same time, A. unedo was the only species showing a significant reduction in BAI under the drought treatment during the 14 years of the experiment. By contrast, Q. ilex just reduced stem growth only during the first 4 years of treatment and P. latifolia remained unaffected over the whole study period. However, we found a clear association between the concentrations of NSC and defoliation in Q. ilex individuals sampled outside the experimental plots, with lower total concentrations of NSC and lower proportion of starch in defoliated individuals. Taken together, our results suggest that stabilizing processes, probably at the stand level, may have been operating in the long-term to mitigate any impact of drought on NSC levels, and highlight the necessity to incorporate long-term experimental studies of plant responses to drought.

  16. Dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in three Mediterranean woody species following long-term experimental drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa eRosas

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Stored non-structural carbohydrates (NSC have been proposed as a key determinant of drought resistance in plants. However, the evidence for this role is controversial, as it comes mostly from observational, short-term studies. Here, we take advantage of a long-term experimental throughfall reduction to elucidate the response of NSC to increased drought 14 years after the beginning of the treatment in three Mediterranean woody species (Quercus ilex L., Arbutus unedo L. and Phillyrea latifolia L.. In addition, we selected 20 Q. ilex individuals outside the experimental plots to directly assess the relationship between defoliation and NSC at the individual level. We measured the seasonal course of NSC concentrations in leaves, branches and lignotuber in late winter, late spring, summer and autumn 2012. Total concentrations of NSC were highest in the lignotuber for all species. In the long-term drought experiment we found significant depletion in concentrations of total NSC in treatment plots only in the lignotuber of A. unedo. At the same time, A. unedo was the only species showing a significant reduction in BAI under the drought treatment during the 14 years of the experiment. By contrast, Q. ilex just reduced stem growth only during the first 4 years of treatment and P. latifolia remained unaffected over the whole study period. However, we found a clear association between the concentrations of NSC and defoliation in Q. ilex individuals sampled outside the experimental plots, with lower total concentrations of NSC and lower proportion of starch in defoliated individuals. Taken together, our results suggest that stabilizing processes, probably at the stand level, may have been operating in the long-term to mitigate any impact of drought on NSC levels, and highlight the necessity to incorporate long-term experimental studies of plant responses to drought.

  17. Colonizing Dynamic Alluvial and Coastal Landscapes in the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidder, T.; Liu, X.; Ervin, K.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the Holocene humans have had to adapt to dynamic, rapidly changing alluvial and coastal landscapes. Understanding when people inhabit a given environment is an important starting point for exploring human adaptations, but increasingly we need to consider how, and especially why certain environments are used—or not used— so we can understand the consequences of these human actions. Using four case studies—one from the Yellow River Valley, China, one from coastal Jiangsu, China, one from the Mississippi River Valley (Mississippi, USA) and one from the Mississippi River delta (Louisiana , USA)—we develop a model of how humans at various stages of cultural development colonize new environments. Using archaeological data and ecological modeling we investigate the relationship between the timing of landscape colonization and the ecological richness and predictability of any given environment. As new landscapes emerge and mature humans adopt different strategies for exploiting these novel environments that begins with episodic use and increasingly shifts to stable, long-term habitation. The early phase of landscape colonization appears to be the most significant period because it shapes human environmental practices and sets each culture on a trajectory of socio-cultural development. Thus, human-environment interaction is a critical part of the emergence of cultural patterns that shapes the past, present, and even the future.

  18. Assessment of dynamic and long-term performance of an innovative multi-story timber building via structural monitoring and dynamic testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omenzetter, Piotr; Morris, Hugh; Worth, Margaret; Gaul, Andrew; Jager, Simon; Desgeorges, Yohann

    2012-04-01

    An innovative three-story timber building, using self-centering, post-tensioned timber shear walls as the main horizontal load resisting system and lightweight non-composite timber-concrete floors, has recently been completed in Nelson, New Zealand. It is expected to be the trailblazer for similar but taller structures to be more widely adopted. Performance based standards require an advanced understanding of building responses and in order to meet the need for in-situ performance data the building has been subjected to forced vibration testing and instrumented for continuous monitoring using a total of approximately 90 data channels to capture its dynamic and long-term responses. The first part of the paper presents a brief discussion of the existing research on the seismic performance of timber frame buildings and footfall induced floor vibrations. An outline of the building structural system, focusing on the novel design solutions, is then discussed. This is followed by the description of the monitoring system. The analysis of monitoring results starts with a discussion of the monitoring of long-term deformations. Next, the assessment of the floor vibration serviceability performance is outlined. Then, the forced vibration tests conducted on the whole building at different construction stages are reviewed. The system identification results from seismic shaking records are also discussed. Finally, updating of a finite element model of the building is conducted.

  19. Nonlinear Recurrent Dynamics and Long-Term Nonstationarities in EEG Alpha Cortical Activity: Implications for Choosing Adequate Segment Length in Nonlinear EEG Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerquera, Alexander; Vollebregt, Madelon A; Arns, Martijn

    2018-03-01

    Nonlinear analysis of EEG recordings allows detection of characteristics that would probably be neglected by linear methods. This study aimed to determine a suitable epoch length for nonlinear analysis of EEG data based on its recurrence rate in EEG alpha activity (electrodes Fz, Oz, and Pz) from 28 healthy and 64 major depressive disorder subjects. Two nonlinear metrics, Lempel-Ziv complexity and scaling index, were applied in sliding windows of 20 seconds shifted every 1 second and in nonoverlapping windows of 1 minute. In addition, linear spectral analysis was carried out for comparison with the nonlinear results. The analysis with sliding windows showed that the cortical dynamics underlying alpha activity had a recurrence period of around 40 seconds in both groups. In the analysis with nonoverlapping windows, long-term nonstationarities entailed changes over time in the nonlinear dynamics that became significantly different between epochs across time, which was not detected with the linear spectral analysis. Findings suggest that epoch lengths shorter than 40 seconds neglect information in EEG nonlinear studies. In turn, linear analysis did not detect characteristics from long-term nonstationarities in EEG alpha waves of control subjects and patients with major depressive disorder patients. We recommend that application of nonlinear metrics in EEG time series, particularly of alpha activity, should be carried out with epochs around 60 seconds. In addition, this study aimed to demonstrate that long-term nonlinearities are inherent to the cortical brain dynamics regardless of the presence or absence of a mental disorder.

  20. Simulating Effects of Long Term Use of Wastewater on Farmers Health Using System Dynamics Modeling (Case Study: Varamin Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamzehali Alizadeh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Agricultural activity in Varamin plain has been faced with many challenges in recent years, due to vicinity to Tehran the capital of Iran (competition for Latian dam reservoir, and competition with Tehran south network in allocation of Mamlou dam reservoir and treated wastewater of south wastewater treatment plant. Mamlou and Latian dam reservoirs, due to increase of population and industry sectors, allocated to urban utilization of Tehran. Based on national policy, the treated wastewater should be replaced with Latian dam reservoir water to supply water demand of agricultural sector. High volume transmission of wastewater to Varamin plain, will be have economical, environmental, and social effects. Several factors effect on wastewater management and success of utilization plans and any change in these factors may have various feedbacks on the other elements of wastewater use system. Hence, development of a model with capability of simulation of all factors, aspects and interactions that affect wastewater utilization is very necessary. The main objective of present study was development of water integrated model to study long-term effects of irrigation with Tehran treated wastewater, using system dynamics modeling (SD approach. Materials and Methods: Varamin Plain is one of the most important agricultural production centers of the country due to nearness to the large consumer market of Tehran and having fertile soil and knowledge of agriculture. The total agricultural irrigated land in Varamin Plain is 53486 hectares containing 17274 hectares of barley, 16926 hectares of wheat, 3866 hectares of tomato, 3521 hectares of vegetables, 3556 hectares of alfalfa, 2518 hectares of silage maize, 1771 hectares of melon, 1642 hectares of cotton, 1121 hectares of cucumber and 1291 hectares of other crops. In 2006 the irrigation requirement of the crop pattern was about 690 MCM and the actual agriculture water consumption was about 620 MCM

  1. Modelling dynamic transport and adsorption of arsenic in soil-bed filters for long-term performance evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Sourav; Mondal, Raka; de, Sirshendu; Griffiths, Ian

    2017-11-01

    Purification of contaminated water following the safe water guidelines while generating sufficiently large throughput is a crucial requirement for the steady supply of safe water to large populations. Adsorption-based filtration processes using a multilayer soil bed has been posed as a viable method to achieve this goal. This work describes the theory of operation and prediction of the long-term behaviour of such a system. The fixed-bed column has a single input of contaminated water from the top and an output from the bottom. As the contaminant passes through the column, it is adsorbed by the medium. Like any other adsorption medium, the filter has a certain lifespan, beyond which the filtrate does not meet the safe limit of drinking water, which is defined as `breakthrough'. A mathematical model is developed that couples the fluid flow through the porous medium to the convective, diffusive and adsorptive transport of the contaminant. The results are validated with experimental observations and the model is then used to predict the breakthrough and lifetime of the filter. The key advantage of this model is that it can predict the long-term behaviour of any adsorption column system for any set of physical characteristics of the system. This worked was supported by the EPSRC Global Challenge Research Fund Institutional Sponsorship 2016.

  2. Long-term vegetation, climate and ocean dynamics inferred from a 73,500 years old marine sediment core (GeoB2107-3) off southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Fang; Zonneveld, Karin A. F.; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Arz, Helge W.; Pätzold, Jürgen; Behling, Hermann

    2017-09-01

    Long-term changes in vegetation and climate of southern Brazil, as well as ocean dynamics of the adjacent South Atlantic, were studied by analyses of pollen, spores and organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) in marine sediment core GeoB2107-3 collected offshore southern Brazil covering the last 73.5 cal kyr BP. The pollen record indicates that grasslands were much more frequent in the landscapes of southern Brazil during the last glacial period if compared to the late Holocene, reflecting relatively colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Patches of forest occurred in the lowlands and probably also on the exposed continental shelf that was mainly covered by salt marshes. Interestingly, drought-susceptible Araucaria trees were frequent in the highlands (with a similar abundance as during the late Holocene) until 65 cal kyr BP, but were rare during the following glacial period. Atlantic rainforest was present in the northern lowlands of southern Brazil during the recorded last glacial period, but was strongly reduced from 38.5 until 13.0 cal kyr BP. The reduction was probably controlled by colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Atlantic rainforest expanded to the south since the Lateglacial period, while Araucaria forests advanced in the highlands only during the late Holocene. Dinocysts data indicate that the Brazil Current (BC) with its warm, salty and nutrient-poor waters influenced the study area throughout the investigated period. However, variations in the proportion of dinocyst taxa indicating an eutrophic environment reflect the input of nutrients transported mainly by the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) and partly discharged by the Rio Itajaí (the major river closest to the core site). This was strongly related to changes in sea level. A stronger influence of the BCC with nutrient rich waters occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and in particular during the late MIS 3 and MIS 2 under low sea level. Evidence of Nothofagus pollen

  3. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  4. Long-term landscape evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin along the Kaoko- and Damara Belts, NW-Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menges, Daniel; Glasmacher, Ulrich Anton; Hackspacher, Peter; Schneider, Gabriele; Salomon, Eric

    2015-04-01

    experiments, J. Geophy. Res. 99: 12211-12228. 12. Brown, R. W., Gallagher, K. and Gleadow, A. J. W., 2000. Morphotectonic evolution of the South Atlantic margins of Africa and South America, in M. A. Summerfield (ed.), Geomorphology and Global Tectonics, JohnWiley and Sons Ltd., Chichester, pp. 255-281. 13. Raab, M. J., Brown, R. W., Gallagher, K., Weber, K., Gleadow, A. J. W., 2005. Denudational and thermal history of the Early Cretaceous Brandberg and Okenyenya igneous complexes on Namibia's Atlantic passive margin Tectonics 24: 1-15. 14. Guillocheau, F., Rouby, D., Robin, C. Helm, C., Rolland, N., Le Carlier de Veslud, C., Braun, J., 2012. Quantification and causes of the terrigeneous sediment budget at the scale of a continent margin: a new method applied to the Namibia-South Africa Margin. BasinRes. 24, 3-30. 15. Dauteuil, O., Rouby, D., Braun, J., Guillocheau, F., Deschamps, F., 2013. Post-breakup evolution of the margin of Namibia: constraints from numerical approach. Tectonophysics 604, 122-138. 16. Rouby, D., Braun, J., Dauteuil, O., Deschamps, F., Robin, C., 2013. Long-term stratigraphic evolution of Atlantic-type passive margins: a numerical approach of interactions between surface processes, flexural isostasy and 3D thermal subsidence. Tectonophysics 604, 83-103. 17. Cockburn, H. A. P., Brown, R. W., Summerfield, M. A. and Seidl, M. A., 2000. Quantifying passive margin denudation and landscape development using a combined fission-track thermochronology and cosmogenic isotope analysis approach, EPSL 179: 429-435. 18. Brown, R. W., 1992. A fission track thermochronology study of the tectonic and geomorphic development of the sub-aerial continental margins of southern Africa., PhD thesis, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Australia. 19. Gallagher, K. and Brown, R. W., 1999. Denudation and uplift at passive margins: the record on the Atlantic Margin of southern Africa, Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London A 357: 835-859. 20. Raab, M. J., Brown, R. W

  5. Explaining the success or failure of quality improvement initiatives in long-term care organizations from a dynamic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etheridge, Francis; Couturier, Yves; Denis, Jean-Louis; Tremblay, Lucie; Tannenbaum, Cara

    2014-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to better understand why change initiatives succeed or fail in long-term care organizations. Four case studies from Québec, Canada were contrasted retrospectively. A constipation and restraints program succeeded, while an incontinence and falls program failed. Successful programs were distinguished by the use of a change strategy that combined "let-it happen," "help-it happen," and "make-it happen" interventions to create senses of urgency, solidarity, intensity, and accumulation. These four active ingredients of the successful change strategies propelled their respective change processes forward to completion. This paper provides concrete examples of successful and unsuccessful combinations of "let-it happen," "help-it happen," and "make-it happen" change management interventions. Change managers (CM) can draw upon these examples to best tailor and energize change management strategies in their own organizations. © The Author(s) 2013.

  6. [Dynamics of tooth decay prevalence in children receiving long-term preventive program in school dental facilities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avraamova, O G; Kulazhenko, T V; Gabitova, K F

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents the assessment of tooth decay prevalence in clinically homogenous groups of children receiving long-term preventive program (PP) in school dental facilities. Five-years PP were introduced in clinical practice in 2 Moscow schools. Preventive treatment was performed by dental hygienist. The results show that systematic preventive treatment in school dental offices starting from elementary school allows reducing dental caries incidence 46-53% and stabilize the incidence of caries complications. It should be mentioned though that analysis of individualized outcomes proves heterogeneity of study results despite of equal conditions of PP. Potentially significant hence is early diagnostics and treatment of initial caries forms as demineralization foci, especially in children with intensive tooth decay. Optimization of pediatric dentist and dental hygienist activity in school dental facilities is the main factor of caries prevention efficiency.

  7. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E; Lin, John C; Bowling, David R; Pataki, Diane E; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E; Stephens, Britton B; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R; Ehleringer, James R

    2018-03-20

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah's metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine "excess" CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2 , implying a nonlinear relationship with CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  8. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

    2018-03-01

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  9. Seasonal dynamics and long-term trend of hypoxia in the coastal zone of Emilia Romagna (NW Adriatic Sea, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvisi, Francesca; Cozzi, Stefano

    2016-01-15

    Long-term series of meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic data were compared with hypoxia occurrence, in order to define characteristics and trends of this phenomenon in the Emilia Romagna Coastal Zone (ERCZ) in 1977-2008. During this period, hypoxia was recorded at all sampling stations, up to 20 km offshore. In winter, spring and late autumn, hypoxia appearance was matched to significant positive anomalies of air and surface seawater temperatures (up to +3.6 °C), whereas this effect was less pronounced in August-October. Hypoxia generally occurred with scarce precipitation (0-2 dm(3)m(2)d(-1)) and low wind velocity (0-2 ms(-1)), suggesting the importance of stable meteo-marine conditions for the onset of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, wind direction emerged as an indicator of hydrodynamic seasonal changes in the area and is thus a hypoxia regulator. In winter, spring and autumn, hypoxia was favored by large increases of biomass induced by river freshets. In contrast, summer hypoxia occurred during periods of low runoff, suggesting that pronounced stratification and weak circulation of coastal waters were more important in this season. Since the 1990s, a shift from widespread summer hypoxia to local hypoxia irregularly distributed across the year has occurred. This process was concomitant to long-term increases of air temperature (+0.14 °C yr(-1)), wind speed (+0.03 ms(-1) yr(-1)) and salinity (+0.09 yr(-1)), and decreases of Po River flow (-0.54 km(3) yr(-1)), oxygen saturation (-0.2% yr(-1)) and PO4(3-) (-0.004 μmol P L(-1) yr(-1)) and NH4(+) (-0.04 μmol N L(-1) yr(-1)) concentrations in surface coastal waters. Despite that several of these changes suggest an ERCZ trophic level positive reduction, similar to that reported for the N Adriatic, the concomitant climate warming might further exacerbate hypoxia in particularly shallow shelf locations. Therefore, in order to avoid hypoxia development a further mitigation of anthropogenic pressure is still

  10. Historical framework to explain long-term coupled human and natural system feedbacks: application to a multiple-ownership forest landscape in the northern Great Lakes region, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelle M. Steen-Adams; Nancy Langston; Mark D. O. Adams; David J. Mladenoff

    2015-01-01

    Current and future human and forest landscape conditions are influenced by the cumulative, unfolding history of socialecological interactions. Examining past system responses, especially unintended consequences, can reveal valuable insights that promote learning and adaptation in forest policy and management. Temporal couplings are complex, however; they can be...

  11. Dynamic Strength and Accumulated Plastic Strain Development Laws and Models of the Remolded Red Clay under Long-Term Cyclic Loads: Laboratory Test Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain are two important parameters for evaluating the dynamic response of soil. As a special clay, the remolded red clay is often used as the high speed railway subgrade filling, but studies on its dynamic characteristics are few. For a thorough analysis of the suitability of the remolded red clay as the subgrade filling, a series of long-term cyclic load triaxial test under different load histories are carried out. Considering the influence of compactness, confining pressure, consolidation ratio, vibration frequency and dynamic load to the remolded red clay dynamic property, the tests obtain the development curves of the dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain under different test conditions. Then, through curve fitting method, two different hyperbolic models respectively for the dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain are built, which can match the test datum well. By applying the dynamic strength model, the critical dynamic strength of the remolded red clay are gained. Meanwhile, for providing basic datum and reference for relevant projects, all key parameters for the dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain of the remolded red clay are given in the paper.

  12. Long-term dynamics of tropical walking sticks in response to multiple large-scale and intense disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willig, Michael R; Presley, Steven J; Bloch, Christopher P

    2011-02-01

    Understanding the effects of disturbance and secondary succession on spatio-temporal patterns in the abundance of species is stymied by a lack of long-term demographic data, especially in response to infrequent and high intensity disturbances, such as hurricanes. Moreover, resistance and resilience to hurricane-induced disturbance may be mediated by legacies of previous land use, although such interactive effects are poorly understood, especially in tropical environments. We address these central issues in disturbance ecology by analyzing an extensive dataset, spanning the impacts of Hurricanes Hugo and Georges, on the abundance of a Neotropical walking stick, Lamponius portoricensis, in tabonuco rainforest of Puerto Rico during the wet and dry seasons from 1991 to 2007. By synthesizing data from two proximate sites in tabonuco forest, we show that resistance to Hurricane Hugo (97% reduction in abundance) was much less than resistance to Hurricane Georges (21% reduction in abundance). Based on a powerful statistical approach (generalized linear mixed-effects models with Poisson error terms), we documented that the temporal trajectories of abundance during secondary succession (i.e., patterns of resilience) differed between hurricanes and among historical land use categories, but that the effects of hurricanes and land use histories were independent of each other. These complex results likely arise because of differences in the intensities of the two hurricanes with respect to microclimatic effects (temperature and moisture) in the forest understory, as well as to time-lags in the response of L. portoricensis to changes in the abundance and distribution of preferred food plants (Piper) in post-hurricane environments.

  13. PRIMARY RESULTS OF LONG-TERM DYNAMIC MONITORING OF CHILDREN WITH BRONCHIAL ASTHMA OF UNCONTROLLED SEVERE PERSISTENT COURSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Namazova-Baranova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Patients registers help obtain the latest information about the clinical course of a disease, safety and effectiveness of the medical technology. Objective: Our aim was to analyze the efficiency and safety of omalizumab with children suffering from uncontrolled severe persistent bronchial asthma (BA according to the data of the developed register. Methods.  A register of patients with severe asthma of uncontrolled course receiving omalizumab in addition to basic therapy has been developed. Results. Results of treatment of 101 children aged 6–17 have been analyzed. The duration of therapy with omalizumab lasted from 1 to 85 months, with a median of 16 (10; 44 months. The drug was used in doses of 75 to 600 mg, with a median of 300 (225; 375 mg. The therapy with omalizumab allowed achieving a better control of the disease (AST test prior to start of therapy — 14 (11; 17 points, in 1 year — 20 (13; 25; p < 0,001; reduction of the volume of daily base therapy (prior to start of therapy, average dose of inhaled corticosteroids in terms of fluticasone was 629 ± 304 mg (n = 15, in 4 years — 524 ± 342 mg; p = 0.065; reduction of the number of aggravations and the need to use short-effectiv   2-agonists.  No adverse systemic effects of the introduction of genetically engineered biological drugs have been found. Conclusion. Register of patients with severe persistent asthma can be used as a tool for long-term  monitoring and integrated assessment of the efficiency and safety of therapy.

  14. Dynamic imaging response following radiation therapy predicts long-term outcomes for diffuse low-grade gliomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallud, Johan; Llitjos, Jean-François; Dhermain, Frédéric; Varlet, Pascale; Dezamis, Edouard; Devaux, Bertrand; Souillard-Scémama, Raphaëlle; Sanai, Nader; Koziak, Maria; Page, Philippe; Schlienger, Michel; Daumas-Duport, Catherine; Meder, Jean-François; Oppenheim, Catherine; Roux, François-Xavier

    2012-04-01

    Quantitative imaging assessment of radiation therapy (RT) for diffuse low-grade gliomas (DLGG) by measuring the velocity of diametric expansion (VDE) over time has never been studied. We assessed the VDE changes following RT and determined whether this parameter can serve as a prognostic factor. We reviewed a consecutive series of 33 adults with supratentorial DLGG treated with first-line RT with available imaging follow-up (median follow-up, 103 months). Before RT, all patients presented with a spontaneous tumor volume increase (positive VDE, mean 5.9 mm/year). After RT, all patients demonstrated a tumor volume decrease (negative VDE, mean, -16.7 mm/year) during a mean 49-month duration. In univariate analysis, initial tumor volume (>100 cm(3)), lack of IDH1 expression, p53 expression, high proliferation index, and fast post-RT tumor volume decrease (VDE at -10 mm/year or faster, fast responders) were associated with a significantly shorter overall survival (OS). The median OS was significantly longer (120.8 months) for slow responders (post-RT VDE slower than -10.0 mm/year) than for fast responders (47.9 months). In multivariate analysis, fast responders, larger initial tumor volume, lack of IDH1 expression, and p53 expression were independent poor prognostic factors for OS. A high proliferation index was significantly more frequent in the fast responder subgroup than in the slow responder subgroup. We conclude that the pattern of post-RT VDE changes is an independent prognostic factor for DLGG and offers a quantitative parameter to predict long-term outcomes. We propose to monitor individually the post-RT VDE changes using MRI follow-up, with particular attention to fast responders.

  15. In Vitro Experimental Model for the Long-Term Analysis of Cellular Dynamics During Bronchial Tree Development from Lung Epithelial Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagiwara, Masaya; Maruta, Naomichi; Marumoto, Moegi

    2017-06-01

    Lung branching morphogenesis has been studied for decades, but the underlying developmental mechanisms are still not fully understood. Cellular movements dynamically change during the branching process, but it is difficult to observe long-term cellular dynamics by in vivo or tissue culture experiments. Therefore, developing an in vitro experimental model of bronchial tree would provide an essential tool for developmental biology, pathology, and systems biology. In this study, we succeeded in reconstructing a bronchial tree in vitro by using primary human bronchial epithelial cells. A high concentration gradient of bronchial epithelial cells was required for branching initiation, whereas homogeneously distributed endothelial cells induced the formation of successive branches. Subsequently, the branches grew in size to the order of millimeter. The developed model contains only two types of cells and it facilitates the analysis of lung branching morphogenesis. By taking advantage of our experimental model, we carried out long-term time-lapse observations, which revealed self-assembly, collective migration with leader cells, rotational motion, and spiral motion of epithelial cells in each developmental event. Mathematical simulation was also carried out to analyze the self-assembly process and it revealed simple rules that govern cellular dynamics. Our experimental model has provided many new insights into lung development and it has the potential to accelerate the study of developmental mechanisms, pattern formation, left-right asymmetry, and disease pathogenesis of the human lung.

  16. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  17. Simulation of Long-Term Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in Grassland-Based Dairy Farming Systems to Evaluate Mitigation Strategies for Nutrient Losses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Abbas Shah

    Full Text Available Many measures have been proposed to mitigate gaseous emissions and other nutrient losses from agroecosystems, which can have large detrimental effects for the quality of soils, water and air, and contribute to eutrophication and global warming. Due to complexities in farm management, biological interactions and emission measurements, most experiments focus on analysis of short-term effects of isolated mitigation practices. Here we present a model that allows simulating long-term effects at the whole-farm level of combined measures related to grassland management, animal housing and manure handling after excretion, during storage and after field application. The model describes the dynamics of pools of organic carbon and nitrogen (N, and of inorganic N, as affected by farm management in grassland-based dairy systems. We assessed the long-term effects of delayed grass mowing, housing type (cubicle and sloping floor barns, resulting in production of slurry and solid cattle manure, respectively, manure additives, contrasting manure storage methods and irrigation after application of covered manure. Simulations demonstrated that individually applied practices often result in compensatory loss pathways. For instance, methods to reduce ammonia emissions during storage like roofing or covering of manure led to larger losses through ammonia volatilization, nitrate leaching or denitrification after application, unless extra measures like irrigation were used. A strategy of combined management practices of delayed mowing and fertilization with solid cattle manure that is treated with zeolite, stored under an impermeable sheet and irrigated after application was effective to increase soil carbon stocks, increase feed self-sufficiency and reduce losses by ammonia volatilization and soil N losses. Although long-term datasets (>25 years of farm nutrient dynamics and loss flows are not available to validate the model, the model is firmly based on knowledge of

  18. Dynamics of the psychological features and clinical symptoms in mitral valve prolapse patients receiving long-term integrative psychotherapy for anxiety disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zinchenko Y.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to investigate the dynamics of the psychological features and clinical symptoms in mitral valve prolapse (MVP patients receiving long-term integrative psychotherapy for anxiety disorders (AD and to investigate the psychological factors of their improvement in mental health as a result of psychotherapy. Thirty-two MVP patients with AD attended long-term integrative psychotherapy. Psychological and clinical examinations of the patients were made before and after the therapy courses and in a follow-up study after 2, 5, and 10 years. Data from the study show that 78.1% of the patients who attended psychotherapy sessions demonstrated valid improvements in self-rated psychological well-being and a reduction in their anxiety levels. Analysis of emotion-regulation strategies showed that psychotherapy encouraged the use of strategies effective for solving adaptive tasks. Positive dynamics in the development of personality reflection, the recognition of one’s emotional experiences, improved skills of self-regulation, and growing awareness of actual needs, individual purposes, and personality resources—all were associated with the reduction of MVP clinical symptoms. The psychiatrist who interviewed the patients reported that most of them were in sustained remission.

  19. Paleoecology of the Late Pennsylvanian-age Calhoun coal bed and implications for long-term dynamics of wetland ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willard, Debra A. [US Geological Survey, 926A National Center, Reston (VA 20192 USA); Phillips, Tom L. [Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana (IL 61801 USA); Lesnikowska, Alicia D. [Box 24, Rt. 2, Vineyard Haven (MA 02568 USA); DiMichele, William A. [Department of Paleobiology, NMNH, Smithsonian Institution, Washington (DC 20560 USA)

    2007-01-02

    Quantitative plant assemblage data from coal balls, miospores, megaspores, and compression floras from the Calhoun coal bed (Missourian) of the Illinois Basin (USA) are used to interpret spatial and temporal changes in plant communities in the paleo-peat swamp. Coal-ball and miospore floras from the Calhoun coal bed are dominated strongly by tree ferns, and pteridosperms and sigillarian lycopsids are subdominant, depending on geographic location within the coal bed. Although the overall composition of Calhoun peat-swamp assemblages is consistent both temporally and spatially, site-to-site differences and short-term shifts in species dominance indicate local topographic and hydrologic control on species composition within the broader context of the swamp. Statistical comparison of the Calhoun miospore assemblages with those from other Late Pennsylvanian coal beds suggests that the same basic species pool was represented in each peat-swamp landscape and that the relative patterns of dominance and diversity were persistent from site to site. Therefore, it appears that the relative patterns of proportional dominance stayed roughly the same from one coal bed to the next during Late Pennsylvanian glacially-driven climatic oscillations. (author)

  20. Dynamics of intrapericardial and extrapericardial fat tissues during long-term, dietary-induced, moderate weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsaban, Gal; Wolak, Arik; Avni-Hassid, Hila; Gepner, Yftach; Shelef, Ilan; Henkin, Yaakov; Schwarzfuchs, Dan; Cohen, Noa; Bril, Nitzan; Rein, Michal; Serfaty, Dana; Kenigsbuch, Shira; Tene, Lilac; Zelicha, Hila; Yaskolka-Meir, Anat; Komy, Oded; Bilitzky, Avital; Chassidim, Yoash; Ceglarek, Uta; Stumvoll, Michael; Blüher, Matthias; Thiery, Joachim; Dicker, Dror; Rudich, Assaf; Stampfer, Meir J; Shai, Iris

    2017-10-01

    Background: In view of evidence linking pericardial fat accumulation with increased cardiovascular disease risk, strategies to reduce its burden are needed. Data comparing the effects of specific long-term dietary interventions on pericardial fat tissue mobilization are sparse. Objective: We sought to evaluate intrapericardial-fat (IPF) and extrapericardial-fat (EPF) changes during weight-loss interventions by different dietary regimens. Design: During 18 mo of a randomized controlled trial, we compared a Mediterranean/low-carbohydrate (MED/LC) diet plus 28 g walnuts/d with a calorically equal low-fat (LF) diet among randomly assigned participants with moderate abdominal obesity. We performed whole-body MRI and volumetrically quantified IPF and EPF among 80 participants to follow the 18-mo changes. Results: The participants [mean age: 48.6 y; mean body mass index (BMI; in kg/m 2 ); 31.7; 90% men] had baseline IPF and EPF (mean ± SD) volumes of 172.4 ± 53.3 mL and 194.9 ± 71.5 mL, respectively. The 18-mo moderate weight loss of 3.7 kg was similar in both groups, but the reduction in waist circumference was higher in the MED/LC group (-6.9 ± 6.6 cm) than in the LF diet group (-2.3 ± 6.5 cm; P = 0.01). After 18 mo, the IPF volume had reduced twice as much in the MED/LC group compared with the LF group [-37 ± 26.2 mL (-22% ± 15%) compared with -15.5 ± 26.2 mL (-8% ± 15%), respectively; P EPF volume had reduced similarly in both groups [-41.6 ± 30.2 mL (-23% ± 16%) in the MED/LC group compared with -37.9 ± 28.3 mL (-19% ± 14%) in the LF group; P > 0.1]. After controlling for weight loss, IPF and EPF volume reduction paralleled changes in lipid profile but not with improved glycemic profile variables: the IPF relative reduction was associated with a decrease in triglycerides (TGs) (β = 0.090; 95% CI: 0.026, 0.154; P = 0.007) and the ratio of TGs to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (β = 2.689; 95% CI: 0.373, 5.003; P = 0.024), and the EPF relative

  1. Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.; Stallard, Robert F.

    2011-07-01

    The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983-1987, 1991-1997, and 2000-2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO4), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual "boomerang" pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

  2. Glass and antimony electrodes for long-term pH monitoring: a dynamic in vitro comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geus, W. P.; Smout, A. J.; Kooiman, J. C.; Lamers, C. B.; Gues, J. W.

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of combined glass microelectrodes with monocrystalline and polycrystalline antimony electrodes with external reference in a 24-h dynamic in vitro study. DESIGN AND METHODS: In an artificial stomach, the pH of the contents titrated from pH1-7 and back by NaOH and

  3. Amino acid and N mineralization dynamics in heathland soil after long-term warming and repetitive drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andresen, L.C.; Bode, S.; Tietema, A.; Boeckx, P.; Rütting, T.

    2015-01-01

    Monomeric organic nitrogen (N) compounds such as free amino acids (FAAs) are an important resource for both plants and soil microorganisms and a source of ammonium (NH4+) via microbial FAA mineralization. We compared gross FAA dynamics with gross N mineralization in a Dutch heathland soil using a

  4. Modeling context-sensitive, dynamic activity travel behavior by linking short-and long-term responses to accumulated stress

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Psarra, I.; Liao, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    As existing activity-based models of travel demand simulate activity travel patterns for a typical day, dynamic models simulate behavioral response to endogenous or exogenous change along various time horizons. Prior research predominantly addressed a specific kind of change, which usually affected

  5. Effects of long-term fertilisation on aggregates and dynamics of soil organic carbon in a semi-arid agro-ecosystem in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaoyang Zhang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Long-term fertilisation has a large influence on soil physical and chemical properties in agro-ecosystems. The effects on the distribution of aggregates, however, are not fully understood. We determined the dynamic change of the distribution of aggregates and soil organic carbon (SOC content over time in a long-term field experiment established in 1998 on the Loess Plateau of China and illustrated the relationship between them. Methods We determined SOC content and the distribution of aggregates in nine fertiliser treatments: manure (M; nitrogen (N; phosphorus (P; M and N; M, N, and P; M and P; N and P; bare land; and an unfertilised control. These parameters were then used for a path analysis and to analyse the fractal dimension (Dv. Results The organic fertiliser increased SOC content. The proportions of 0.1–0.25 mm microaggregates and 0.25–0.5 mm macroaggregates were higher and the proportion of the 0.01–0.05 mm size class of the silt + clay fraction was lower in the treatments receiving organic fertiliser (M, MN, MNP, and MP than that in the control, indicating that the addition of organic fertiliser promoted aggregation. The distribution of aggregates characterised by their fractal dimension (Dv, however, did not differ among the treatments. Discussion Dv was strongly correlated with the proportion of the <0.002 mm size class of the silt + clay fraction that did not differ significantly among the treatments. The change in the distribution of aggregates was strongly correlated with SOC content, which could produce organic polymer binding agents to increase the proportion of larger particles. Long-term application of organic fertiliser is thus necessary for the improvement and maintenance of soil quality in semi-arid agricultural land when residues are removed.

  6. Long-term dynamics of monoterpene synthase activities, monoterpene storage pools and emissions in boreal Scots pine

    OpenAIRE

    Vanhatalo, Anni; Ghirardo, Andrea; Juurola, Eija; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter; Zimmer, Ina; Hellén, Heidi; Hakola, Hannele; Bäck, Jaana

    2018-01-01

    Seasonal variations in monoterpene emissions from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) are well documented, and emissions are often shown to follow the incident temperatures due to effects on compound volatility. Recent studies have indicated a link between monoterpene emissions and physiological drivers such as photosynthetic capacity during needle development. The complex interplay between the dynamic changes in the biosynthetic capacity to produce monoterpenes and the temperature-dependent evapor...

  7. Dynamic Regulation of Circulating microRNAs During Acute Exercise and Long-Term Exercise Training in Basketball Athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Yongqin Li; Mengchao Yao; Qiulian Zhou; Yan Cheng; Lin Che; Jiahong Xu; Junjie Xiao; Zhongming Shen; Yihua Bei

    2018-01-01

    Emerging evidence indicates the beneficial effects of physical exercise on human health, which depends on the intensity, training time, exercise type, environmental factors, and the personal health status. Conventional biomarkers provide limited insight into the exercise-induced adaptive processes. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs, miRs) are dynamically regulated in response to acute exhaustive exercise and sustained rowing, running and cycling exercises. However, circulating miRNAs in response ...

  8. Long-term time series of legume cycles in a seminatural montane grassland: evidence for nitrogen-driven grass dynamics?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Herben, Tomáš; Mayerová, Hana; Skálová, Hana; Hadincová, Věroslava; Pecháčková, Sylvie; Krahulec, František

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 31, č. 7 (2017), s. 1430-1440 ISSN 0269-8463 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-05506S; GA ČR GA13-17118S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : C : N ratio * legume selfinhibition * dynamic linear model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 5.630, year: 2016

  9. Long-term spatiotemporal stability and dynamic changes in helminth infracommunities of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in NE Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzybek, Maciej; Bajer, Anna; Bednarska, Małgorzata; Al-Sarraf, Mohammed; Behnke-Borowczyk, Jolanta; Harris, Philip D; Price, Stephen J; Brown, Gabrielle S; Osborne, Sarah-Jane; Siński, Edward; Behnke, Jerzy M

    2015-12-01

    Parasites are considered to be an important selective force in host evolution but ecological studies of host-parasite systems are usually short-term providing only snap-shots of what may be dynamic systems. We have conducted four surveys of helminths of bank voles at three ecologically similar woodland sites in NE Poland, spaced over a period of 11 years, to assess the relative importance of temporal and spatial effects on helminth infracommunities. Some measures of infracommunity structure maintained relative stability: the rank order of prevalence and abundance of Heligmosomum mixtum, Heligmosomoides glareoli and Mastophorus muris changed little between the four surveys. Other measures changed markedly: dynamic changes were evident in Syphacia petrusewiczi which declined to local extinction, while the capillariid Aonchotheca annulosa first appeared in 2002 and then increased in prevalence and abundance over the remaining three surveys. Some species are therefore dynamic and both introductions and extinctions can be expected in ecological time. At higher taxonomic levels and for derived measures, year and host-age effects and their interactions with site are important. Our surveys emphasize that the site of capture is the major determinant of the species contributing to helminth community structure, providing some predictability in these systems.

  10. Response of microbial community of organic-matter-impoverished arable soil to long-term application of soil conditioner derived from dynamic rapid fermentation of food waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jiaqi; Li, Mingxiao; Mao, Xuhui; Hao, Yan; Ding, Jie; Liu, Dongming; Xi, Beidou; Liu, Hongliang

    2017-01-01

    Rapid fermentation of food waste can be used to prepare soil conditioner. This process consumes less time and is more cost-effective than traditional preparation technology. However, the succession of the soil microbial community structure after long-term application of rapid fermentation-derived soil conditioners remains unclear. Herein, dynamic rapid fermentation (DRF) of food waste was performed to develop a soil conditioner and the successions and diversity of bacterial communities in an organic-matter-impoverished arable soil after six years of application of DRF-derived soil conditioner were investigated. Results showed that the treatment increased soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation and strawberry yield by 5.3 g/kg and 555.91 kg/ha, respectively. Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, and Firmicutes became the dominant phyla, occupying 65.95%-77.52% of the bacterial sequences. Principal component analysis (PCA) results showed that the soil bacterial communities were largely influenced by the treatment. Redundancy analysis (RDA) results showed that the relative abundances of Gemmatimonadetes, Chloroflexi, Verrucomicrobia, Nitrospirae, and Firmicutes were significantly correlated with soil TC, TN, TP, NH4+-N, NO3--N, OM, and moisture. These communities were all distributed in the soil samples collected in the sixth year of application. Long-term treatment did not enhance the diversity of bacterial species but significantly altered the distribution of major functional bacterial communities in the soils. Application of DRF-derived soil conditioner could improve the soil quality and optimize the microbial community, ultimately enhancing fruit yields.

  11. Long-term spatial and temporal microbial community dynamics in a large-scale drinking water distribution system with multiple disinfectant regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potgieter, Sarah; Pinto, Ameet; Sigudu, Makhosazana; du Preez, Hein; Ncube, Esper; Venter, Stephanus

    2018-08-01

    Long-term spatial-temporal investigations of microbial dynamics in full-scale drinking water distribution systems are scarce. These investigations can reveal the process, infrastructure, and environmental factors that influence the microbial community, offering opportunities to re-think microbial management in drinking water systems. Often, these insights are missed or are unreliable in short-term studies, which are impacted by stochastic variabilities inherent to large full-scale systems. In this two-year study, we investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the microbial community in a large, full scale South African drinking water distribution system that uses three successive disinfection strategies (i.e. chlorination, chloramination and hypochlorination). Monthly bulk water samples were collected from the outlet of the treatment plant and from 17 points in the distribution system spanning nearly 150 km and the bacterial community composition was characterised by Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene. Like previous studies, Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria dominated the drinking water bacterial communities, with an increase in Betaproteobacteria post-chloramination. In contrast with previous reports, the observed richness, diversity, and evenness of the bacterial communities were higher in the winter months as opposed to the summer months in this study. In addition to temperature effects, the seasonal variations were also likely to be influenced by changes in average water age in the distribution system and corresponding changes in disinfectant residual concentrations. Spatial dynamics of the bacterial communities indicated distance decay, with bacterial communities becoming increasingly dissimilar with increasing distance between sampling locations. These spatial effects dampened the temporal changes in the bulk water community and were the dominant factor when considering the entire distribution system. However

  12. Long-term effects of penicillin resistance and fitness cost on pneumococcal transmission dynamics in a developed setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Tilevik

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The increasing prevalence of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci (PNSP throughout the world threatens successful treatment of infections caused by this important bacterial pathogen. The rate at which PNSP clones spread in the community is thought to mainly be determined by two key determinants; the volume of penicillin use and the magnitude of the fitness cost in the absence of treatment. The aim of the study was to determine the impacts of penicillin consumption and fitness cost on pneumococcal transmission dynamics in a developed country setting. Methods: An individual-based network model based on real-life demographic data was constructed and applied in a developed country setting (Sweden. A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups, i.e. families, day care groups, school classes, and other close contacts, was considered to properly assess the transmission dynamics for susceptible and PNSP clones. Several scenarios were simulated and model outcomes were statistically analysed. Results: Model simulations predicted that with an outpatient penicillin use corresponding to the sales in Sweden 2010 (118 recipes per 1,000 inhabitants per year, the magnitude of a fitness cost for resistance must be at least 5% to offset the advantage of penicillin resistance. Moreover, even if there is a fitness cost associated with penicillin resistance, a considerable reduction of penicillin usage appears to be required to significantly decrease the incidence of PNSP in a community. Conclusion: The frequency of PNSP clones is hard to reverse by simply reducing the penicillin consumption even if there is a biological cost associated with resistance. However, because penicillin usage does promote further spread of PNSP clones, it is important to keep down penicillin consumption considering future resistance problems.

  13. Long-term soil nutrient dynamics comparison under smallholding land and farmland policy in northeast of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Wei, Xinfeng; Hao, Fanghua

    2013-04-15

    There are two kinds of land policies, the smallholding land policy (SLP) and the farmland policy (FLP) in China. The farmland nutrient dynamics under the two land policies were analysed with the soil system budget method. The averaged nitrogen (N) input of the SLP and the FLP over sixteen years increased about 23.9% and 33.3%, respectively and the phosphorus (P) input climbed about 39.1% and 42.3%, respectively. The statistical analysis showed that the land policies had significant impacts on N and P input from fertilizer and manure, but did not obviously affect the N input from seeds and biological N fixation. The efficiency percentage of N of the SLP and the FLP climbed about 54.5% and 59.4%, respectively, and the P efficiency improved by 52.7% and 82.6%, respectively. About the nutrient output, the F-test analysis indicated that the land polices had remarkable impacts on N output by crop uptake, ammonia volatilisation, denitrification, leaching and runoff, and P output by uptake, runoff, and leach. The balance showed that the absolute loss of N from land deceased about 43.6% and 46.0%, respectively, in the SLP and the FLP, and P discharge reduced about 34.2% and 75.2%, respectively. The F-test analysis of N and P efficiency and balance of between two polices both indicated that the FLP had significant impact on nutrient dynamic. With the Mitscherlich model, the correlations between nutrient input and crop uptake, usage efficiency and loss were analysed and showed that was a threshold value for the optimal nutrient input with the highest efficiency rate. For the optimal nutrient efficiency, the space for extra P addition was bigger than the N input. The FLP have more advantage than the SLP on the crop yield, nutrient efficiency and environmental discharge. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Using body mass dynamics to examine long-term habitat shifts of arctic-molting geese: Evidence for ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tyler L.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Taylor, Eric J.; Bollinger, Karen S.

    2011-01-01

    From 1976 onward, molting brant geese (Branta bernicla) within the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Alaska, shifted from inland, freshwater lakes toward coastal wetlands. Two hypotheses explained this redistribution: (1) ecological change: redistribution of molting brant reflects improvements in coastal foraging habitats, which have undergone a succession toward salt-tolerant plants due to increased coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion as induced by climate change or (2) interspecific competition: greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) populations increased 12-fold at inland lakes, limiting food availability and forcing brant into coastal habitats. Both hypotheses presume that brant redistributions were driven by food availability; thus, body mass dynamics may provide insight into the relevance of these hypotheses. We compared body mass dynamics of molting brant across decades (1978, 1987–1992, 2005–2007) and, during 2005–2007, across habitats (coastal vs. inland). Brant lost body mass during molt in all three decades. At inland habitats, rates of mass loss progressively decreased by decade despite the increased number of greater white-fronted geese. These results do not support an interspecific competition hypothesis, instead suggesting that ecological change enhanced foraging habitats for brant. During 2005–2007, rates of mass loss did not vary by habitat. Thus, while habitats have improved from earlier decades, our results cannot distinguish between ecological changes at inland versus coastal habitats. However, we speculate that coastal forage quality has improved beyond that of inland habitats and that the body mass benefits of these higher quality foods are offset by the disproportionate number of brant now molting coastally.

  15. Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Malhotra, Rahul; Love, Sean R; Liu, Chang; Do, Young

    2016-03-23

    Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

  16. Long-term landscape evolution of the Poços de Caldas Plateau revealed by thermokinematic numerical modeling using the software code Pecube, SE- Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doranti Tiritan, Carolina; Hackspacher, Peter C.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2014-05-01

    The Poços de Caldas Plateau in the southeastern Brazil, and it is characterized by a high relief topography supported by the pre-Cambrian crystalline rocks and by the Poços de Caldas Alkaline Massif (PCAM). Ulbrich et al (2002) determine that the ages for the predominant PCAM intermediate rocks were constrained ~83Ma. In addition, geologic observations indicates the phonolites, tinguaites and nepheline syenites were emplaced in a continuous and rapid sequence lasting between 1 to 2 Ma. The topography is characterized by dissected plateau with irregular topographic ridges and peaks with elevations between 900 and 1300m (a.s.l.) on the metamorphic basement and from 1300 to 1700m (a.s.l) on the PCAM region. Therefore, the aim of the work was quantify the main processes that were responsible for the evolution of the landscape by using methods as the low temperature thermochronology and the 3D thermokinematic modeling, for obtaining data of uplift and erosion rates and to correlate them with the thermal gradients of the region. The 3D thermokinematic modeling was obtained using the software code PECUBE (Braun 2003).

  17. Using the Landsat data archive to assess long-term regional forest dynamics assessment in Eastern Europe, 1985-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turubanova, S.; Potapov, P.; Krylov, A.; Tyukavina, A.; McCarty, J. L.; Radeloff, V. C.; Hansen, M. C.

    2015-04-01

    Dramatic political and economic changes in Eastern European countries following the dissolution of the "Eastern Bloc" and the collapse of the Soviet Union greatly affected land-cover and land-use trends. In particular, changes in forest cover dynamics may be attributed to the collapse of the planned economy, agricultural land abandonment, economy liberalization, and market conditions. However, changes in forest cover are hard to quantify given inconsistent forest statistics collected by different countries over the last 30 years. The objective of our research was to consistently quantify forest cover change across Eastern Europe from 1985 until 2012 using the complete Landsat data archive. We developed an algorithm for processing imagery from different Landsat platforms and sensors (TM and ETM+), aggregating these images into a common set of multi-temporal metrics, and mapping annual gross forest cover loss and decadal gross forest cover gain. Our results show that forest cover area increased from 1985 to 2012 by 4.7% across the region. Average annual gross forest cover loss was 0.41% of total forest cover area, with a statistically significant increase from 1985 to 2012. Most forest disturbance recovered fast, with only 12% of the areas of forest loss prior to 1995 not being recovered by 2012. Timber harvesting was the main cause of forest loss. Logging area declined after the collapse of socialism in the late 1980s, increased in the early 2000s, and decreased in most countries after 2007 due to the global economic crisis. By 2012, Central and Baltic Eastern European countries showed higher logging rates compared to their Western neighbours. Comparing our results with official forest cover and change estimates showed agreement in total forest area for year 2010, but with substantial disagreement between Landsat-based and official net forest cover area change. Landsat-based logging areas exhibit strong relationship with reported roundwood production at national

  18. Long term dynamics of dermanyssus gallinae in relation to mite control measures in aviary systems for layers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordenfors, H; Höglund, J

    2000-12-01

    1. The dynamics of the poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, in aviary systems for layers were studied in an empirical study in Sweden between 1994 and 1997. Fluctuations were monitored with mite traps at monthly intervals during 3 laying cycles at each of 2 commercial poultry farms. 2. When mites were first detected in the system it then took about 5 months for the populations to reach equilibrium levels around which they fluctuated. Within flocks when the population growth was unaffected by temporary control activities, it was demonstrated that the mite populations were significantly denser in summer than in winter. 3. Current control methods had limited effects as mite populations were only temporarily suppressed. One exception was the control achieved with permethrin impregnated plastic strips, which reduced the population at equilibrium level to approximately 22%, compared with the previous flock. 4. The distribution of mites was patchy horizontally, along the aviary system, at low burden wlhereas it became more evenly dispersed at equilibrium. 5. Significant differences in vertical mite distributions that correlated with the hybrids used and their rearing conditions were also observed. In flocks with brown hens, mites gathered at the lower tiers, whereas they were found at the highest tiers in association with white hens. As the hens are attacked mainly at night-time the most likely explanation is that the mites adjust their behavioural pattern to the birds' roosting behaviour.

  19. Long-term reactive transport modelling of stabilized/solidified waste: from dynamic leaching tests to disposal scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Windt, Laurent de [Ecole des Mines de Paris, CG-Hydrodynamics and Reaction Group, 35 R. St-Honore, 77300 Fontainebleau (France)]. E-mail: laurent.dewindt@ensmp.fr; Badreddine, Rabia [INERIS, Direction des Risques Chroniques, Unite Dechets et Sites Pollues, Parc Technologique Alata BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Lagneau, Vincent [Ecole des Mines de Paris, CG-Hydrodynamics and Reaction Group, 35 R. St-Honore, 77300 Fontainebleau (France)

    2007-01-31

    Environmental impact assessment of hazardous waste disposal relies, among others, on standardized leaching tests characterized by a strong coupling between diffusion and chemical processes. In that respect, this study shows that reactive transport modelling is a useful tool to extrapolate laboratory results to site conditions characterized by lower solution/solid (L/S) ratios, site specific geometry, infiltration, etc. A cement solidified/stabilized (S/S) waste containing lead is investigated as a typical example. The reactive transport model developed in a previous study to simulate the initial state of the waste as well as laboratory batch and dynamic tests is first summarized. Using the same numerical code (HYTEC), this model is then integrated to a simplified waste disposal scenario assuming a defective cover and rain water infiltration. The coupled evolution of the S/S waste chemistry and the pollutant plume migration are modelled assessing the importance of the cracking state of the monolithic waste. The studied configurations correspond to an undamaged and fully sealed system, a few main fractures between undamaged monoliths and, finally, a dense crack-network in the monoliths. The model considers the potential effects of cracking, first the increase of rain water and carbon dioxide infiltration and, secondly, the increase of L/S ratio and reactive surfaces, using either explicit fracture representation or dual porosity approaches.

  20. Long-Term Arctic Peatland Dynamics, Vegetation and Climate History of the Pur-Taz Region, Western Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peteet, Dorothy; Andreev, Andrei; Bardeen, William; Mistretta, Francesca

    1998-01-01

    Stratigraphic analyses of peat composition, LOI, pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, and AMS ages are used to reconstruct the peatland, vegetation and climatic dynamics in the Pur-Taz region of western Siberia over 5000 years (9300 - 4500 BP). Section stratigraphy shows many changes from shallow lake sediment to different combinations of forested or open sedge, moss, and Equisetum fen and peatland environments. Macrofossil and pollen data indicate that Larix sibirica and Betula pubescens trees were first to arrive, followed by Picea obovata. The dominance of Picea macrofossils 6000-5000 BP in the Pur-Taz peatland along with regional Picea pollen maxima indicate warmer conditions and movement of the spruce treeline northward at this time. The decline of pollen and macrofossils from all of these tree species in uppermost peats suggests a change in the environment less favorable for their growth, perhaps cooler temperatures and/or less moisture. Of major significance is the evidence for old ages of the uppermost peats in this area of Siberia, suggesting a real lack of peat accumulation in recent millennia or recent oxidation of uppermost peat.

  1. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Colin A; Schoof, Valérie A M; Bonnell, Tyler R; Gogarten, Jan F; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-05-26

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. The long-term dynamics of mortality benefits from improved water and sanitation in less developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuland, Marc A; Fuente, David E; Ozdemir, Semra; Allaire, Maura C; Whittington, Dale

    2013-01-01

    The problem of inadequate access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in less-developed nations has received much attention over the last several decades (most recently in the Millennium Development Goals), largely because diseases associated with such conditions contribute substantially to mortality in poor countries. We present country-level projections for WASH coverage and for WASH-related mortality in developing regions over a long time horizon (1975-2050) and provide dynamic estimates of the economic value of potential reductions in this WASH-related mortality, which go beyond the static results found in previous work. Over the historical period leading up to the present, our analysis shows steady and substantial improvements in WASH coverage and declining mortality rates across many developing regions, namely East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The economic value of potential health gains from eliminating mortality attributable to poor water and sanitation has decreased substantially, and in the future will therefore be modest in these regions. Where WASH-related deaths remain high (in parts of South Asia and much of Sub-Saharan Africa), if current trends continue, it will be several decades before economic development and investments in improved water and sanitation will result in the capture of these economic benefits. The fact that health losses will likely remain high in these two regions over the medium term suggests that accelerated efforts are needed to improve access to water and sanitation, though the costs and benefits of such efforts in specific locations should be carefully assessed.

  3. A Nonlinear Dynamic Approach Reveals a Long-Term Stroke Effect on Cerebral Blood Flow Regulation at Multiple Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Kun; Lo, Men-Tzung; Peng, Chung-Kang; Liu, Yanhui; Novak, Vera

    2012-01-01

    Cerebral autoregulation (CA) is an important vascular control mechanism responsible for relatively stable cerebral blood flow despite changes of systemic blood pressure (BP). Impaired CA may leave brain tissue unprotected against potentially harmful effects of BP fluctuations. It is generally accepted that CA is less effective or even inactive at frequencies >∼0.1 Hz. Without any physiological foundation, this concept is based on studies that quantified the coupling between BP and cerebral blood flow velocity (BFV) using transfer function analysis. This traditional analysis assumes stationary oscillations with constant amplitude and period, and may be unreliable or even invalid for analysis of nonstationary BP and BFV signals. In this study we propose a novel computational tool for CA assessment that is based on nonlinear dynamic theory without the assumption of stationary signals. Using this method, we studied BP and BFV recordings collected from 39 patients with chronic ischemic infarctions and 40 age-matched non-stroke subjects during baseline resting conditions. The active CA function in non-stroke subjects was associated with an advanced phase in BFV oscillations compared to BP oscillations at frequencies from ∼0.02 to 0.38 Hz. The phase shift was reduced in stroke patients even at > = 6 months after stroke, and the reduction was consistent at all tested frequencies and in both stroke and non-stroke hemispheres. These results provide strong evidence that CA may be active in a much wider frequency region than previously believed and that the altered multiscale CA in different vascular territories following stroke may have important clinical implications for post-stroke recovery. Moreover, the stroke effects on multiscale cerebral blood flow regulation could not be detected by transfer function analysis, suggesting that nonlinear approaches without the assumption of stationarity are more sensitive for the assessment of the coupling of nonstationary

  4. The long-term dynamics of mortality benefits from improved water and sanitation in less developed countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A Jeuland

    Full Text Available The problem of inadequate access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH in less-developed nations has received much attention over the last several decades (most recently in the Millennium Development Goals, largely because diseases associated with such conditions contribute substantially to mortality in poor countries. We present country-level projections for WASH coverage and for WASH-related mortality in developing regions over a long time horizon (1975-2050 and provide dynamic estimates of the economic value of potential reductions in this WASH-related mortality, which go beyond the static results found in previous work. Over the historical period leading up to the present, our analysis shows steady and substantial improvements in WASH coverage and declining mortality rates across many developing regions, namely East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The economic value of potential health gains from eliminating mortality attributable to poor water and sanitation has decreased substantially, and in the future will therefore be modest in these regions. Where WASH-related deaths remain high (in parts of South Asia and much of Sub-Saharan Africa, if current trends continue, it will be several decades before economic development and investments in improved water and sanitation will result in the capture of these economic benefits. The fact that health losses will likely remain high in these two regions over the medium term suggests that accelerated efforts are needed to improve access to water and sanitation, though the costs and benefits of such efforts in specific locations should be carefully assessed.

  5. Local Seismicity Recorded by ChilePEPPER: Implications for Dynamic Accretionary Prism Response and Long-term Prism Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moor, A.; Trehu, A. M.; Tryon, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the dynamic response of the outer accretionary wedge updip from the patch of greatest slip during the Mw8.8 2010 Maule earthquake, 10 Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS) were deployed from May 2012 to March 2013 in a small array with an inter-instrument spacing of ~12 km . Nine instruments were recovered, with 4 recording data on 3 intermediate-band 3-component seismometers and a differential pressure gauge and 5 recording data from absolute pressure gauges. [note: All instruments were also equipped with a fluid flow meter sensitive to flow rates as low as 0.0001 cm/yr in or out of the sediments. However, no flow signal was detected.] Here we present hypocenters for 569 local events that have S-P times less than 17 seconds (i.e. within ~125 km of the array) using hand-picked arrival times and a 1D velocity model derived from a 2D seismic refraction profile through the region (Moscoso et al 2011, EPSL). We analyze the distribution of seismicity in the context of published slip models, ChilePEPPER high-resolution seismic reflection data, critical taper analysis done by Cubas et al 2013 (EPSL), and offshore gravity data. The data show distinct segmentation within the outer prism. The northern section of the study area is characterized by a lack of seismicity, accretion of nearly all incoming sediment and a prism at critical taper. In contrast, abundant seismicity, significant sediment underthrusting at the deformation front and a prism below critical taper angle characterize the southern part of the study area. Both coseismic slip and post-rupture local seismicity can be related to density anomalies within the upper plate as revealed by free air gravity data corrected for the effects of bathymetry and the subducting plate. [ChilePEPPER - Project Evaluating Prism Post-Earthquake Response

  6. Long-term temporal and spatial dynamics of food availability for endangered mountain gorillas in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grueter, Cyril C; Ndamiyabo, Ferdinand; Plumptre, Andrew J; Abavandimwe, Didier; Mundry, Roger; Fawcett, Katie A; Robbins, Martha M

    2013-03-01

    Monitoring temporal and spatial changes in the resource availability of endangered species contributes to their conservation. The number of critically endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in the Virunga Volcano population has doubled over the past three decades, but no studies have examined how food availability has changed during that period. First, we assessed if the plant species consumed by the gorillas have changed in abundance and distribution during the past two decades. In 2009-2010, we replicated a study conducted in 1988-1989 by measuring the frequency, density, and biomass of plant species consumed by the gorillas in 496 plots (ca. 6 km(2)) in the Karisoke study area in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. We expected to observe a decreased presence of major gorilla food plants as a likely result of density-dependent overharvesting by gorillas. Among the five most frequently consumed species (composing approximately 70% of the gorilla's diet, excluding bamboo), two have decreased in availability and abundance, while three have increased. Some species have undergone shifts in their altitudinal distribution, possibly due to regional climatic changes. Second, we made baseline measurements of food availability in a larger area currently utilized by the gorillas. In the extended sampling (n = 473 plots) area (ca. 25 km(2) ), of the five most frequently consumed species, two were not significantly different in frequency from the re-sampled area, while two occurred significantly less frequently, and one occurred significantly more frequently. We discuss the potential impact of gorilla-induced herbivory on changes of vegetation abundance. The changes in the species most commonly consumed by the gorillas could affect their nutrient intake and stresses the importance of monitoring the interrelation among plant population dynamics, species density, and resource use. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Long-term trend analysis of reservoir water quality and quantity at the landscape scale in two major river basins of Texas, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Reynaldo; Asquith, William H.; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.; Dawson, D.

    2016-01-01

    Trends in water quality and quantity were assessed for 11 major reservoirs of the Brazos and Colorado river basins in the southern Great Plains (maximum period of record, 1965–2010). Water quality, major contributing-stream inflow, storage, local precipitation, and basin-wide total water withdrawals were analyzed. Inflow and storage decreased and total phosphorus increased in most reservoirs. The overall, warmest-, or coldest-monthly temperatures increased in 7 reservoirs, decreased in 1 reservoir, and did not significantly change in 3 reservoirs. The most common monotonic trend in salinity-related variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate) was one of no change, and when significant change occurred, it was inconsistent among reservoirs. No significant change was detected in monthly sums of local precipitation. Annual water withdrawals increased in both basins, but the increase was significant (P < 0.05) only in the Colorado River and marginally significant (P < 0.1) in the Brazos River. Salinity-related variables dominated spatial variability in water quality data due to the presence of high- and low-salinity reservoirs in both basins. These observations present a landscape in the Brazos and Colorado river basins where, in the last ∼40 years, reservoir inflow and storage generally decreased, eutrophication generally increased, and water temperature generally increased in at least 1 of 3 temperature indicators evaluated. Because local precipitation remained generally stable, observed reductions in reservoir inflow and storage during the study period may be attributable to other proximate factors, including increased water withdrawals (at least in the Colorado River basin) or decreased runoff from contributing watersheds.

  8. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    45 years helping in developing countries! CERN personnel have been helping the least fortunate people on the planet since 1971. How? With the Long-Term Collections! Dear Colleagues, The Staff Association’s Long-Term Collections (LTC) Committee is delighted to share this important milestone in the life of our Laboratory with you. Indeed, whilst the name of CERN is known worldwide for scientific discoveries, it also shines in the many humanitarian projects which have been supported by the LTC since 1971. Several schools and clinics, far and wide, carry its logo... Over the past 45 years, 74 projects have been supported (9 of which are still ongoing). This all came from a group of colleagues who wanted to share a little of what life offered them here at CERN, in this haven of mutual understanding, peace and security, with those who were less fortunate elsewhere. Thus, the LTC were born... Since then, we have worked as a team to maintain the dream of these visionaries, with the help of regular donat...

  9. Long-Term Collection

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Dear Colleagues, As previously announced in Echo (No. 254), your delegates took action to draw attention to the projects of the Long-Term Collections (LTC), the humanitarian body of the CERN Staff Association. On Tuesday, 11 October, at noon, small Z-Cards were widely distributed at the entrances of CERN restaurants and we thank you all for your interest. We hope to have achieved an important part of our goal, which was to inform you, convince you and find new supporters among you. We will find out in the next few days! An exhibition of the LTC was also set up in the Main Building for the entire week. The Staff Association wants to celebrate the occasion of the Long-Term Collection’s 45th anniversary at CERN because, ever since 1971, CERN personnel have showed great support in helping the least fortunate people on the planet in a variety of ways according to their needs. On a regular basis, joint fundraising appeals are made with the Directorate to help the victims of natural disasters around th...

  10. Collectes à long terme

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2014-01-01

    En cette fin d’année 2014 qui approche à grands pas, le Comité des Collectes à Long Terme remercie chaleureusement ses fidèles donatrices et donateurs réguliers pour leurs contributions à nos actions en faveur des plus démunis de notre planète. C’est très important, pour notre Comité, de pouvoir compter sur l’appui assidu que vous nous apportez. Depuis plus de 40 ans maintenant, le modèle des CLT est basé principalement sur des actions à long terme (soit une aide pendant 4-5 ans par projet, mais plus parfois selon les circonstances), et sa planification demande une grande régularité de ses soutiens financiers. Grand MERCI à vous ! D’autres dons nous parviennent au cours de l’année, et ils sont aussi les bienvenus. En particulier, nous tenons à remercier...

  11. The phenology of ticks and the effects of long-term prescribed burning on tick population dynamics in southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleim, Elizabeth R; Conner, L Mike; Berghaus, Roy D; Levin, Michael L; Zemtsova, Galina E; Yabsley, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  12. The phenology of ticks and the effects of long-term prescribed burning on tick population dynamics in southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth R Gleim

    Full Text Available Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA, in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB] were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions. In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data

  13. Geomorphological response of a landscape to long-term tectonic and glacial processes: the upper Rhône basin, Central Swiss Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutenbecker, Laura; Schlunegger, Fritz

    2015-04-01

    The Rhône River in the Central Swiss Alps drains a 5380 km2 large basin that shows a high spatial variability of bedrock lithology, exhumation rate, glacial conditioning and climate. All of these factors were recently discussed to control erosion rates in orogenic settings in general, and particularly in the Alps (e.g. Wittmann et al. 2007, Vernon et al. 2008, Norton et al. 2010a). Thanks to various and densely distributed data, the upper Rhône basin located between the Aar massif and Lake Geneva is a suitable natural laboratory to analyze the landscape's geomorphological state and controlling factors at a basin-scale. In this study, we extract geomorphological parameters along the channels of ca. 50 tributary basins of various sizes that contribute to the sediment budget of the Rhône River either through sediment supply by torrents or debris flows. Their catchments are located in either granitic basement rocks (External Massifs), oceanic meta-sedimentary and ophiolitic rocks (Penninic nappes) or fine-grained continental-margin sediments (Helvetic nappes). The analysis of longitudinal river profiles from DEMs and slope/area relationships show that all tributary rivers within the Rhône basin are in topographic transient state that is expressed by mainly convex or concave-convex channel shapes with several knickpoints of either tectonic-lithological or glacial origin. Furthermore, the frequency distribution of elevations (hypsometry) along the river channel allows identifying glacially inherited morphologies and the recent erosional front. The combination of those different geomorphological data yields to a categorization of the tributary rivers into three endmember groups: (1) streams with highly convex profiles, testifying to a strong glacial inheritance, (2) concave-convex channels with several knickzones and inherited morphologies of past glaciations, (3) predominantly concave, relatively steep rivers with minor knickpoints and inner gorges. Assuming that

  14. Modeling the influence of long term human-induced land use conversion on sediment fluxes and carbon dynamics at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchoms, Samuel; Van Oost, Kristof; Vanacker, Veerle

    2014-05-01

    Over the past 20 years, there has been increasing evidence of the strong impact of human activities on the landscape, specifically on soil erosion due to the removal of natural vegetation cover for agricultural and urban purposes. The results question the widespread hypothesis of a steady state landscape since it appears that the balance between soil production and erosion may be broken altering the interactions between chemical, physical and biological processes in both soil and landscape system. Yet, the relationship between this accelerated erosion and the carbon dynamics at the landscape scale remains an important area of investigation. Recent attempts to combine geomorphic models, soil redistribution and carbon dynamic has proved themselves valuable in term of supporting the importance of lateral fluxes as a crucial control of carbon dynamic at the landscape scale. We use the SPEROS LT model, a modified version of SPEROS-C which includes dynamic land use and soil physical properties, to assess the impact of historical land use conversion on sediment and carbon fluxes in the Dijle catchment. This particular location has experienced a significant human impact since the Roman period, undergoing heavy deforestation and expansion of agricultural lands followed by a period of abandonment. The last 400 to 500 years saw a dramatic increase in the intensity of land use conversion associated to population growth leading to forest cleaning and urbanization. Our main objective is to validate the combined geomorphic and soil carbon turnover process descriptions of the model. Historical land use proportions are based on existing literature estimations and spatial assignation of the land conversion relies on simple allocation rules based on criteria such as slope or soil texture. Land use scenarios are constructed for the last 2000 years. We confront the model results with observations and perform a sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that the general trends in

  15. Investigation of a methanol reformer concept considering the particular impact of dynamics and long-term stability for use in a fuel-cell-powered passenger car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, R.; Düsterwald, H. G.; Höhlein, B.

    A methanol reformer concept including a reformer, a catalytic burner, a gas cleaning unit, a PEMFC and an electric motor for use in fuel-cell-powered passenger cars was investigated. Special emphasis was placed on the dynamics and the long-term stability of the reformer. Experiments on a laboratory scale were performed in a methanol steam reformer consisting of four different reactor tubes, which were separately balanced. Due to the endothermy of the steam reforming reaction of methanol, a sharp drop in the reaction temperature of about 50 K occurs at the beginning of the catalyst bed. This agrees well with the high catalytic activity at the entrance of the catalyst bed. Forty-five percent of the methanol was converted within the first 10 cm of the catalyst bed where 12.6 g of the CuO/ZnO catalyst was located. Furthermore, CO formation during methanol steam reforming strongly depends on methanol conversion. Long-term measurements for more than 700 h show that the active reaction zone moved through the catalyst bed. Calculations, on the basis of these experiments, revealed that 63 g of reforming catalyst was necessary for mobile PEMFC applications, in this case for 400 W el at a system efficiency of 42% and a theoretical specific hydrogen production of 5.2 m 3n/(h kg Cat). This amount of catalyst was assumed to maintain a hydrogen production of at least 80% of the original amount over an operating range of 3864 h. Cycled start-up and shut-down processes of the methanol steam reformer under nitrogen and hydrogen atmospheres did not harm the catalytic activity. The simulation of the breakdown of the heating system, in which a liquid water/methanol mixture was in close contact with the catalyst, did not reveal any deactivation of the catalytic activity.

  16. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  17. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  18. LONG TERM COLLECTIONS

    CERN Multimedia

    STAFF ASSOCIATION

    2010-01-01

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Long-Term Collections (CLT) committee would like to warmly thank its faithful donors who, year after year, support our actions all over the world. Without you, all this would not be possible. We would like to thank, in particular, the CERN Firemen’s Association who donated 5000 CHF in the spring thanks to the sale of their traditional calendar, and the generosity of the CERN community. A huge thank you to the firemen for their devotion to our cause. And thank you to all those who have opened their door, their heart, and their purses! Similarly, we warmly thank the CERN Yoga Club once again for its wonderful donation of 2000 CHF we recently received. We would also like to tell you that all our projects are running well. Just to remind you, we are currently supporting the activities of the «Réflexe-Partage» Association in Mali; the training centre of «Education et Développement» in Abomey, Benin; and the orphanage and ...

  19. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  20. Long-term follow-up of a randomized controlled trial on additional core stability exercises training for improving dynamic sitting balance and trunk control in stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabanas-Valdés, Rosa; Bagur-Calafat, Caritat; Girabent-Farrés, Montserrat; Caballero-Gómez, Fernanda Mª; du Port de Pontcharra-Serra, Helena; German-Romero, Ana; Urrútia, Gerard

    2017-11-01

    Analyse the effect of core stability exercises in addition to conventional physiotherapy training three months after the intervention ended. A randomized controlled trial. Outpatient services. Seventy-nine stroke survivors. In the intervention period, both groups underwent conventional physiotherapy performed five days/week for five weeks, and in addition the experimental group performed core stability exercises for 15 minutes/day. Afterwards, during a three-month follow-up period, both groups underwent usual care that could eventually include conventional physiotherapy or physical exercise but not in a controlled condition. Primary outcome was trunk control and dynamic sitting balance assessed by the Spanish-Version of Trunk Impairment Scale 2.0 and Function in Sitting Test. Secondary outcomes were standing balance and gait evaluated by the Berg Balance Scale, Tinetti Test, Brunel Balance Assessment, Spanish-Version of Postural Assessment Scale for Stroke and activities of daily living using the Barthel Index. A total of 68 subjects out of 79 completed the three-month follow-up period. The mean difference (SD) between groups was 0.78 (1.51) points ( p = 0.003) for total score on the Spanish-Version of Trunk Impairment Scale 2.0, 2.52 (6.46) points ( p = 0.009) for Function in Sitting Test, dynamic standing balance was 3.30 (9.21) points ( p= 0.009) on the Berg Balance Scale, gait was 0.82 (1.88) points ( p = 0.002) by Brunel Balance Assessment (stepping), and 1.11 (2.94) points ( p = 0.044) by Tinetti Test (gait), all in favour of core stability exercises. Core stability exercises plus conventional physiotherapy have a positive long-term effect on improving dynamic sitting and standing balance and gait in post-stroke patients.

  1. Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

  2. The dynamical landscape of marine phytoplankton diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lévy, Marina; Jahn, Oliver; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Follows, Michael J.; d'Ovidio, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    Observations suggest that the landscape of marine phytoplankton assemblage might be strongly heterogeneous at the dynamical mesoscale and submesoscale (10–100 km, days to months), with potential consequences in terms of global diversity and carbon export. But these variations are not well documented as synoptic taxonomic data are difficult to acquire. Here, we examine how phytoplankton assemblage and diversity vary between mesoscale eddies and submesoscale fronts. We use a multi-phytoplankton numerical model embedded in a mesoscale flow representative of the North Atlantic. Our model results suggest that the mesoscale flow dynamically distorts the niches predefined by environmental contrasts at the basin scale and that the phytoplankton diversity landscape varies over temporal and spatial scales that are one order of magnitude smaller than those of the basin-scale environmental conditions. We find that any assemblage and any level of diversity can occur in eddies and fronts. However, on a statistical level, the results suggest a tendency for larger diversity and more fast-growing types at fronts, where nutrient supplies are larger and where populations of adjacent water masses are constantly brought into contact; and lower diversity in the core of eddies, where water masses are kept isolated long enough to enable competitive exclusion. PMID:26400196

  3. Comparison of Absorbable Mesh Plate versus Titanium-Dynamic Mesh Plate in Reconstruction of Blow-Out Fracture: An Analysis of Long-Term Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woon Il Baek

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background A blow-out fracture is one of the most common facial injuries in midface trauma. Orbital wall reconstruction is extremely important because it can cause various functional and aesthetic sequelae. Although many materials are available, there are no uniformly accepted guidelines regarding material selection for orbital wall reconstruction. Methods From January 2007 to August 2012, a total of 78 patients with blow-out fractures were analyzed. 36 patients received absorbable mesh plates, and 42 patients received titanium-dynamic mesh plates. Both groups were retrospectively evaluated for therapeutic efficacy and safety according to the incidence of three different complications: enophthalmos, extraocular movement impairment, and diplopia. Results For all groups (inferior wall fracture group, medial wall fractrue group, and combined inferomedial wall fracture group, there were improvements in the incidence of each complication regardless of implant types. Moreover, a significant improvement of enophthalmos occurred for both types of implants in group 1 (inferior wall fracture group. However, we found no statistically significant differences of efficacy or complication rate in every groups between both implant types. Conclusions Both types of implants showed good results without significant differences in long-term follow up, even though we expected the higher recurrent enophthalmos rate in patients with absorbable plate. In conclusion, both types seem to be equally effective and safe for orbital wall reconstruction. In particular, both implant types significantly improve the incidence of enophthalmos in cases of inferior orbital wall fractures.

  4. Long-term dynamic and pseudo-state modeling of complete partial nitrification process at high nitrogen loading rates in a sequential batch reactor (SBR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliman, Moomen; Eldyasti, Ahmed

    2017-06-01

    Recently, partial nitrification has been adopted widely either for the nitrite shunt process or intermediate nitrite generation step for the Anammox process. However, partial nitrification has been hindered by the complexity of maintaining stable nitrite accumulation at high nitrogen loading rates (NLR) which affect the feasibility of the process for high nitrogen content wastewater. Thus, the operational data of a lab scale SBR performing complete partial nitrification as a first step of nitrite shunt process at NLRs of 0.3-1.2kg/(m 3 d) have been used to calibrate and validate a process model developed using BioWin® in order to describe the long-term dynamic behavior of the SBR. Moreover, an identifiability analysis step has been introduced to the calibration protocol to eliminate the needs of the respirometric analysis for SBR models. The calibrated model was able to predict accurately the daily effluent ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, alkalinity concentrations and pH during all different operational conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Long-term dynamics of radionuclides in semi-natural environments. Derivation of parameters and modelling. Final Report 1996-1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belli, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy). Dipt. Stato Ambiente, Controlli e Sistemi Informativi, Unita' Interdipartimentale di Metrologia Ambientale

    2000-07-01

    During the Chernobyl accident large areas of semi-natural ecosystems were affected by radionuclide deposition. Meadows and forests are typical semi-natural ecosystems. Meadows are used extensively in many countries as pastures for cattle, sheep and goats, while forests are important to man since they provide wood, paper, wild berries, mushrooms, game and recreational areas. Post-Chernobyl investigations have shown that dose to man from semi-natural ecosystems is relatively greater than from agricultural systems and that this dose risk persists for the long-term. Predictive models are essential to take long-term decisions on the management of contaminated environment and to identify key processes controlling the dynamics of radionuclides inside the ecosystems. During the period following the atmospheric fallout due to the nuclear weapons testing, few models for some specific semi-natural environments were developed. The applicability of these models to a wide range of semi-natural ecosystem is questionable, because in these complex systems it is more difficult to identify general key processes and to apply to other sites models developed for one site. Studies carried out since the Chernobyl accident have increased the understanding of radionuclide behaviour in semi-natural ecosystems, especially for boreal forests and middle European meadow systems which have been extensively investigated. Data sets have been obtained which describe the distribution and the cycling of radionuclides (especially {sup 137}Cs and {sup 90}Sr) within these systems. However, predictive modelling has largely been restricted to aggregated transfer factors which provide good contamination estimates, but only for the sites from which data have been obtained directly. There was a need to develop models that can be applied to a broad variety of ecosystems. They are needed for dose estimation, countermeasure implementation and environmental management. They should give reliable estimates of the

  6. Long-term dynamics of radionuclides in semi-natural environments. Derivation of parameters and modelling. Final Report 1996-1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belli, M.

    2000-04-01

    During the Chernobyl accident large areas of semi-natural ecosystems were affected by radionuclide deposition. Meadows and forests are typical semi-natural ecosystems. Meadows are used extensively in many countries as pastures for cattle, sheep and goats, while forests are important to man since they provide wood, paper, wild berries, mushrooms, game and recreational areas. Post-Chernobyl investigations have shown that dose to man from semi-natural ecosystems is relatively greater than from agricultural systems and that this dose risk persists for the long-term. Predictive models are essential to take long-term decisions on the management of contaminated environment and to identify key processes controlling the dynamics of radionuclides inside the ecosystems. During the period following the atmospheric fallout due to the nuclear weapons testing, few models for some specific semi-natural environments were developed. The applicability of these models to a wide range of semi-natural ecosystem is questionable, because in these complex systems it is more difficult to identify general key processes and to apply to other sites models developed for one site. Studies carried out since the Chernobyl accident have increased the understanding of radionuclide behaviour in semi-natural ecosystems, especially for boreal forests and middle European meadow systems which have been extensively investigated. Data sets have been obtained which describe the distribution and the cycling of radionuclides (especially 137 Cs and 90 Sr) within these systems. However, predictive modelling has largely been restricted to aggregated transfer factors which provide good contamination estimates, but only for the sites from which data have been obtained directly. There was a need to develop models that can be applied to a broad variety of ecosystems. They are needed for dose estimation, countermeasure implementation and environmental management. They should give reliable estimates of the behaviour

  7. RELATIONSHIP OF LIPID PROFILE AND IMMUNE STATUS IN THE DYNAMICS OF LONG-TERM EXPOSURE TO COAL-ROCK DUST ON THE BODY (EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Анастасия Сергеевна Казицкая

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Subject. The relationship between lipid metabolism and immune reactivity in the dynamics of long-term exposure to coal-rock dust (CRD on the body. Objective. In the experiment to examine the impact of the changes in the lipid profile on immune status under the conditions of long-term exposure to CRD on the body. Methods. The experiments were carried out on 110 white male rats weighing 200-250 g. The inhalation method was used for modeling that best fits the conditions of coal-mine production. Animals were divided into 2 groups: the control (n = 30; the experiment (n = 80, that are the rats who inhaled CRD with a particle size of up to 5 microns in an average concentration of 50 mg/m3 for 4 hours daily for 12 weeks. Main results. Early terms of the CRD impact are characterized by the activation of the immune system against the background of metabolic shifts as well as by morphological changes of the immune nature in the bronchopulmonary system and liver of the rats that can be regarded as compensatory-adaptive. Prolonged exposure to the dust factor leads to an increase in dyslipidemia, which contributes to the development of immune imbalance as well as morphological changes that are indicative of the chronic inflammation and disturbance of compensatory mechanisms. Field of application. The results of the conducted experimental studies broaden the fundamental ideas about the mechanisms of immune body defense. The detection of pathogenetic mechanisms underlying the formation and course of occupational diseases allows assessing the functional state of the organism at the stage of pre-existing disease, revealing the initial signs of developing pathology and determining the ways of their correction. Conclusions. CRD intake is characterized by the development of metabolic changes, which are closely related to immune reactivity. An integrated approach to the study of occupational and industrially-caused pathology makes it possible to assess the

  8. Effect of exogenous inoculants on enhancing oil recovery and indigenous bacterial community dynamics in long-term field pilot of low permeability reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Xue, Shuwen; He, Chunqiu; Qi, Huixia; Chen, Fulin; Ma, Yanling

    2018-03-20

    Pseudomonas aeruginosa DN1 strain and Bacillus subtilis QHQ110 strain were chosen as rhamnolipid and lipopeptide producer respectively, to evaluate the efficiency of exogenous inoculants on enhancing oil recovery (EOR) and to explore the relationship between injected bacteria and indigenous bacterial community dynamics in long-term filed pilot of Hujianshan low permeability water-flooded reservoir for 26 months. Core-flooding tests showed that the oil displacement efficiency increased by 18.46% with addition of exogenous consortia. Bacterial community dynamics using quantitative PCR and high-throughput sequencing revealed that the exogenous inoculants survived and could live together with indigenous bacterial populations. They gradually became the dominant community after the initial activation, while their comparative advantage weakened continually after 3 months of the first injection. The bacterial populations did not exert an observable change in the process of the second injection of exogenous inoculants. On account of facilitating oil emulsification and accelerating bacterial growth with oil as the carbon source by the injection of exogenous consortia, γ-proteobacteria was finally the prominent bacterial community at class level varying from 25.55 to 32.67%, and the dominant bacterial populations were increased by 2-3 orders of magnitude during the whole processes. The content of organic acids and rhamnolipids in reservoir were promoted with the change of bacterial community diversity, respectively. Cumulative oil increments reached 26,190 barrels for 13 months after the first injection, and 55,947 barrels of oil had been accumulated in all of A20 wells block through two rounds of bacterial consortia injection. The performance of EOR has a cumulative improvement by the injection of exogenous inoculants without observable inhibitory effect on the indigenous bacterial populations, demonstrating the application potential in low permeability water

  9. Long-term consequences of selected competitive strategies during deregulation of the United States electric utility industry: System dynamics modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Yehia Fahim

    Currently, U.S. investor-owned utilities (IOUs) are facing major reforms in their business environment similar to the airlines, telecommunications, banking, and insurance industries. As a result, IOUs are gearing up for fierce price competition in the power generation sector, and are vying for electricity customers outside their franchised service territories. Energy experts predict that some IOUs may suffer fatal financial setbacks (especially those with nuclear plants), while others may thrive under competition. Both federal and state energy regulators anticipate that it may take from five to ten years to complete the transition of America's electric utility industry from a regulated monopoly to a market-driven business. During this transition, utility executives are pursuing aggressive business strategies to confront the upcoming price wars. The most compelling strategies focus on cutting operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of power production, downsizing the work force, and signing bilateral energy agreements with large price-sensitive customers to retain their business. This research assesses the impact of the three pivotal strategies on financial performance of utilities during transition to open market competition. A system-dynamics-based management flight simulator has been developed to predict the dynamic performance of a hypothetical IOU organization preparing for market competition. The simulation results show that while the three business strategies lead to short-lived gains, they also produce unanticipated long-term consequences that adversely impact the organization's operating revenues. Generally, the designed flight simulator serves as a learning laboratory which allows management to test new strategies before implementation.

  10. Badlands: A parallel basin and landscape dynamics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Salles

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over more than three decades, a number of numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs have been developed to study the combined effects of climate, sea-level, tectonics and sediments on Earth surface dynamics. Most of them are written in efficient programming languages, but often cannot be used on parallel architectures. Here, I present a LEM which ports a common core of accepted physical principles governing landscape evolution into a distributed memory parallel environment. Badlands (acronym for BAsin anD LANdscape DynamicS is an open-source, flexible, TIN-based landscape evolution model, built to simulate topography development at various space and time scales.

  11. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  12. Impacts of Insufficient Observations on the Monitoring of Short- and Long-Term Suspended Solids Variations in Highly Dynamic Waters, and Implications for an Optimal Observation Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qu Zhou

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Coastal water regions represent some of the most fragile ecosystems, exposed to both climate change and human activities. While remote sensing provides unprecedented amounts of data for water quality monitoring on regional to global scales, the performance of satellite observations is frequently impeded by revisiting intervals and unfavorable conditions, such as cloud coverage and sun glint. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate the impacts of varied sampling strategies (time and frequency and insufficient observations on the monitoring of short-term and long-term tendencies of water quality parameters, such as suspended solids (SS, in highly dynamic coastal waters. Taking advantage of the first high-frequency in situ SS dataset (at 30 min sampling intervals from 2007 to 2008, collected in Deep Bay, China, this paper presents a quantitative analysis of the influences of sampling strategies on the monitoring of SS, in terms of sampling frequency and time of day. Dramatic variations of SS were observed, with standard deviation coefficients of 48.9% and 54.1%, at two fixed stations; in addition, significant uncertainties were revealed, with the average absolute percent difference of approximately 13%, related to sampling frequency and time, using nonlinear optimization and random simulation methods. For a sampling frequency of less than two observations per day, the relative error of SS was higher than 50%, and stabilized at approximately 10%, when at least four or five samplings were conducted per day. The optimal recommended sampling times for SS were at around 9:00, 12:00, 14:00, and 16:00 in Deep Bay. The “pseudo” MODIS SS dataset was obtained from high-frequency in situ SS measurements at 10:30 and 14:00, masked by the temporal gap distribution of MODIS coverage to avoid uncertainties propagated from atmospheric correction and SS models. Noteworthy uncertainties of daily observations from the Terra/Aqua MODIS were found, with mean relative

  13. Long-term dynamics of heavy metals in the upper horizons of soils in the region of a copper smelter impacts during the period of reduced emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorobeichik, E. L.; Kaigorodova, S. Yu.

    2017-08-01

    The 23-year-long dynamics of actual acidity (pHwater) and acid-soluble heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn) in the forest litter and humus horizon of soils in spruce-fir forests were studied in the area subjected to the long-term (since 1940) pollution with atmospheric emissions from the Middle Ural Copper Smelter (Revda, Sverdlovsk oblast). For this purpose, 25 permanent sample plots were established on lower slopes at different distances from the enterprise (30, 7, 4, 2, and 1 km; 5 plots at each distance) in 1989. The emissions from the smelter have decreased since the early 1990s. In 2012, the emissions of sulfur dioxide and dust decreased by 100 and 40 times, respectively, as compared with the emissions in 1980. Samples of litter and humus horizons were collected on permanent plots in 1989, 1999, and 2012. The results indicate that the pH of the litter and humus horizons restored to the background level 10 and 23 years after the beginning of the reduction in emissions, respectively. However, these characteristics in the impact zone still somewhat differ from those in the background area. In 2012, the content of Cu in the litter decreased compared to 1989 on all the plots; the content of Cu in the humus horizon decreased only in the close vicinity of the smelter. The contents of other metals in the litter and humus horizons remain constant or increased (probably because of the pH-dependent decrease in migration capacity). The absence of pronounced removal of metals from soils results in the retention of high contamination risk and the conservation of the suppressed state of biota within the impact zone.

  14. Soil organic carbon dynamics in wheat-maize cropping systems of north China: application of isotope approach to long-term experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Wang, X.; Xu, M.; Zhang, W.

    2013-12-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) in agro-ecosystem is largely influencedby agricultural practices such as croppingand fertilization. However, quantifying the contributions of various crops has been lacking. Here, we applied isotopic approachto study SOC dynamics under wheat-maize rotation with variousfertilization treatments atthree long-term experiment sites innorth China. Three treatments were chosen: no fertilizer (control), chemical nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (NPK) and NPK plus straw (NPKS).Soil samples were collected from0-20, 20-40, 40-60, 60-80 and 80-100cm after 13 and 20 years of treatment, and SOC and its stable 13C compositions were determined. Generally, SOC content significantly decreased with depths, from 8.2 ×1.4 g kg-1 (in 0-20 cm) to 3.3×1.0 g kg-1 (in 80-100 cm) across all treatments and sites. Soil δ13C values at all depths, treatments and sites ranged from -24.2‰ to -21.6‰, averaged -22.8‰, indicating that ~70% of SOC was derived from wheat and previous C3 plant, and ~30% from maize and previous C4 plant.Both SOC and soil δ13C were significantly affected by fertilization managements, especiallyin 0-40 cm where linear relationship occurred between SOC and estimated C input. Overall, the slop of the linear equation, i.e., conversion efficiency, was four times greater for wheat-derived C relative to that for maize residue C. Our study indicated that maize-derived C contributed less to C sequestration in wheat-maize rotation system of north China. Figure 1. Relationships between SOC stock (0-40 cm) and accumulated C input for wheat (C3), maize (C4) and total. Significance is marked with one (P < 0.05), two (P < 0.01) and three (P < 0.001) asterisks.

  15. Accessibility Long Term Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kay Axhausen

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved accessibility and its correlate lower generalized cost of contact, travel and transport have been sought by dynamic human societies for their economic and social benefits through- out recorded history. The paper will reflect about this process at a number of different spatial and temporal scales based on a conceptual model. Looking back at European history, it will trace the interaction between Christaller's logic of local market areas and the idea of (low contact cost network cities. Focusing on Switzerland since 1950 it will show how network investment changed the relative distribution of population and employment and how this interacted with changes in the preferences of the travelers. Using a recent snapshot of how a substantial sample of Swiss maintain their social networks over often very large areas, it will try to answer the question of what will happen in the future, if the current trend of ever lower costs of contact will persist.

  16. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  17. Long-term climate: interpretation of the Vostok Antarctica drilling data, development of a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genthon, Christophe

    1988-01-01

    climatic state of the atmosphere through baro-clinic instability linear theory. This model is intended for investigating and simulating the climate of the glacial to interglacial transitions. It makes a fair balance between the qualities of a general circulation model and the Computing speed performances necessary for long term simulations. (author) [fr

  18. Field Observations and Modeling Results of the McMurdo Shear Zone, Antarctica: Implications on Shear Margin Dynamics and Long- Term Viability of the South Pole Traverse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaluzienski, L. M.; Koons, P. O.; Enderlin, E. M.; Courville, Z.; Campbell, S. W.; Arcone, S.; Jordan, M.; Ray, L.

    2017-12-01

    Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the flow of inland ice towards the ocean. Understanding the controls on ice-shelf stability are critical to predicting the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. For the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), an important region of lateral resistance is the McMurdo Shear Zone (MSZ), a 5-10 km wide strip of heavily crevassed ice. On a yearly basis the United States Antarctic Program (USAP) mitigates crevasse hazards along the South Pole Traverse (SPoT) route that crosses this region. However, as ice advects northward past the lateral buttress of White Island into a region of greater flow divergence, intensified crevassing has been observed which will continue to place a substantial burden on safety mitigation efforts. The route has advected down-glacier towards this complex region since 2002 so the USAP currently has plans to relocate the shear zone crossing upstream in the near future. Our work aims to assess the feasibility of moving the route to several potential locations based on results from an integrated project incorporating detailed field-based observations of crevasse distributions and orientation from ground-penetrating radar (GPR), GPS and remote sensing observations of the flow and stress field within the MSZ, and finite element numerical modeling of local and regional kinematics within the region. In addition, we assess plausible dynamic forcings both upstream and downstream of the MSZ that could influence shear zone stability. These include changes in mass flux across the grounding lines of tributary glaciers such as the observed increase in ice discharge from of Byrd Glacier (Stearns et al., 2008) as well as changes at the MIS front due to recent intensified rift propagation (Banwel et al., 2017). Results from this work will increase our understanding of ice shelf shear margin dynamics and provide a firm basis for predicting the long-term behavior of the MSZ and viability of the SPoT. Stearns, Leigh A., Benjamin E. Smith, and

  19. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  20. Experiences of long-term tranquillizer use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skinhoj, K T; Larsson, S; Helweg-Joergensen, S

    2001-01-01

    , the psychodynamic perspective is integrated within a multi-dimensional model that considers biological, cognitive, identity, gender and social learning factors. The analysis reveals the possibility of achieving a detailed understanding of the dynamic processes involved in the development of long-term tranquillizer...

  1. Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2017-01-01

    The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

  2. Soilaluminum, iron, and phosphorus dynamics in response to long-term experimental nitrogen and sulfur additions at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica Sherman; Ivan J. Fernandez; Stephen A. Norton; Tsutomu Ohno; Lindsey E. Rustad

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) containing compounds affects soil chemistry in forested ecosystems through (1) acidification and the depletion of base cations, (2) metal mobilization, particularly aluminum (Al), and iron (Fe), (3) phosphorus (P) mobilization, and (4) N accumulation. The Bear BrookWatershed in Maine (BBWM) is a long-term paired...

  3. Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in dynamic landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brose, Ulrich; Hillebrand, Helmut

    2016-01-01

    in dynamic communities of real-world landscapes. PMID:27114570

  4. Optimal long-term contracting with learning

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Wei, Bin; Yu, Jianfeng; Gao, Feng

    2016-01-01

    We introduce uncertainty into Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to study optimal long-term contracting with learning. In a dynamic relationship, the agent's shirking not only reduces current performance but also increases the agent's information rent due to the persistent belief manipulation effect. We characterize the optimal contract using the dynamic programming technique in which information rent is the unique state variable. In the optimal contract, the optimal effort is front-loaded and decr...

  5. Long term complications of diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long-term complications of diabetes To use the sharing features on this page, ... other tests. All these may help you keep complications of diabetes away. You will need to check your blood ...

  6. Influence of the dynamic Stark effect on long-term frequency stability of a self-oscillating magnetometer with laser-pumped alkali atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranov, A. A.; Ermak, S. V.; Kulachenkov, N. K.; Petrenko, M. V.; Sagitov, E. A.; Semenov, V. V.

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents the results of investigation Stark shift effect influence on the long-term stability of a dual scheme of quantum magnetometers. Such scheme allows suppressing Stark shift components when a certain pumping light polarization is applied. As a result, long-term stability of a quantum sensor increases. However, when low-frequency (LF) and microwave fields are attached to a single vapor cell a coherence circulation in hyperfine structure of alkali atoms takes place. Physical origin of this effect is associated with the so called “dressed” atom theory, when atom is “dressed” by LF field. It yields in multiphoton absorption and resonance frequency shift. First estimates for this shift based on density matrix evolution formalism are provided in the paper.

  7. [Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plancke, L; Amariei, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

  8. Andra long term memory project - 59277

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charton, Patrick; Boissier, Fabrice; Martin, Guillaume

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Long term memory of repositories is required by safety, reversibility and social expectations. Thus Andra has implemented since 2010 a long-term memory project to reinforce and diversify its current arrangements in this field, as well as to explore opportunities to extend memory keeping over thousands years. The project includes opportunity studies of dedicated facilities. The 'Ecotheque' and 'Geotheque' projects contribute to memory respectively through environmental and geological samples preservation. The options of creating (i) an archive centre for Andra's interim and permanent archives, (ii) an artist center to study the contribution of arts to memory preservation, (iii) a museum of radioactive waste disposal history and technology (radium industry..., sea disposal, current solutions...) are considered. Other studies provided by the project examine our heritage. This includes the continuity of languages and symbolic systems, the continuity of writing and engraving methods, the archaeology of landscapes (memory of the earths evolution, multi-century memory of industrial and agricultural landscapes), the archaeology practices (how might a future archaeologist be interested in our current activity?), the preservation of historical sites and industrial memory, the continuity of institutional organizations, the memory and history of science evolution as well as broad history

  9. Group dynamics in a long-term blind endeavor on Earth: An analog for space missions (Lewis & Clark Expedition group dynamic analysis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allner, M.; Rygalov, V.

    2008-12-01

    suggested distinguishable mission phase model, the Lewis and Clark Expedition will be analyzed for similarities to these space findings. Factors of consideration in support of this analysis involve an understanding of the leadership qualities of Lewis and Clark (and relations established and maintained with one another), the selection and diversity of their crew, and the group dynamics that were developed and maintained so carefully during the expedition. With this knowledge and understanding one can gain enormous insights useful in the planning and preparation for future long-duration space exploratory missions with high level of autonomy, mobility, minimal primary life support supply and high dependence on material re-circulation and In-Situ Resource Utilization approach.

  10. The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fouquet, Roger [London School of Economics and Political Science (United Kingdom); Schubert, E. Fred [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.

  11. Arid landscape dynamics along a precipitation gradient: addressing vegetation - landscape structure - resource interactions at different time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buis, E.

    2008-01-01

    This research is entitled ‘Arid landscape dynamics along a precipitation gradient: addressing
    vegetation – landscape structure – resource interactions at different time scales’ with as subtitle
    ‘A case study for the Northern Negev Desert of Israel’. Landscape dynamics describes the

  12. A landscape analysis plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy E. Fleenor

    2002-01-01

    A Landscape Analysis Plan (LAP) sets out broad guidelines for project development within boundaries of the Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystems Project. The plan must be a dynamic, living document, subject to change as new information arises over the course of this very long-term project (several decades). Two watersheds, each of 32,000 acres, were dedicated to...

  13. Integrating landscape ecology and geoinformatics to decipher landscape dynamics for regional planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dikou, Angela; Papapanagiotou, Evangelos; Troumbis, Andreas

    2011-09-01

    We used remote sensing and GIS in conjunction with multivariate statistical methods to: (i) quantify landscape composition (land cover types) and configuration (patch density, diversity, fractal dimension, contagion) for five coastal watersheds of Kalloni gulf, Lesvos Island, Greece, in 1945, 1960, 1971, 1990 and 2002/2003, (ii) evaluate the relative importance of physical (slope, geologic substrate, stream order) and human (road network, population density) variables on landscape composition and configuration, and (iii) characterize processes that led to land cover changes through land cover transitions between these five successive periods in time. Distributions of land cover types did not differ among the five time periods at the five watersheds studied because the largest cumulative changes between 1945 and 2002/2003 did not take place at dominant land cover types. Landscape composition related primarily to the physical attributes of the landscape. Nevertheless, increase in population density and the road network were found to increase heterogeneity of the landscape mosaic (patchiness), complexity of patch shape (fractal dimension), and patch disaggregation (contagion). Increase in road network was also found to increase landscape diversity due to the creation of new patches. The main processes involved in land cover changes were plough-land abandonment and ecological succession. Landscape dynamics during the last 50 years corroborate the ecotouristic-agrotouristic model for regional development to reverse trends in agricultural land abandonment and human population decline and when combined with hypothetical regulatory approaches could predict how this landscape could develop in the future, thus, providing a valuable tool to regional planning.

  14. Long-term ground deformation patterns of Bucharest using multi-temporal InSAR and multivariate dynamic analyses: a possible transpressional system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaş, Iuliana; Mendes, Diana A.; Popa, Răzvan-Gabriel; Gheorghe, Mihaela; Popovici, Diana

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this exploratory research is to capture spatial evolution patterns in the Bucharest metropolitan area using sets of single polarised synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data and multi-temporal radar interferometry. Three sets of SAR data acquired during the years 1992-2010 from ERS-1/-2 and ENVISAT, and 2011-2014 from TerraSAR-X satellites were used in conjunction with the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and persistent scatterers (PS) high-resolution multi-temporal interferometry (InSAR) techniques to provide maps of line-of-sight displacements. The satellite-based remote sensing results were combined with results derived from classical methodologies (i.e., diachronic cartography) and field research to study possible trends in developments over former clay pits, landfill excavation sites, and industrial parks. The ground displacement trend patterns were analysed using several linear and nonlinear models, and techniques. Trends based on the estimated ground displacement are characterised by long-term memory, indicated by low noise Hurst exponents, which in the long-term form interesting attractors. We hypothesize these attractors to be tectonic stress fields generated by transpressional movements.

  15. Dynamics of volume of competition practice and facilities of training of jumpers in length and triple in the process of long-term preparation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sovenko S.P.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysed and systematized information in relation to the volume of competition practice and facilities of different primary orientation of jumpers in length and triple in the process of long-term preparation. The expert questioning is conducted 16 trainers. The documents of planning of training process are analysed, the analysis of diaries of sportsmen is carried out (n=22. The volume of competition practice of sportsmen and facilities of training of different primary orientation is certain. The results of analysis in relation to the construction of training process are reflected by the leading trainers of Ukraine on track-and-field. An approach classification of facilities of training taking into account the specific of training process of sportsmen is presented. It is set that the volume of facilities of general preparation is most on the initial stages of long-term perfection, then stabilized on the stages specialized base and preparations to higher achievements and a few diminishes on maximal implementation of individual possibilities and maintainance of higher sporting trade phases. It is related to diminishing of duration of the general preparatory stages of annual preparation.

  16. Dynamic Gene-Resource Landscape Management of Norway Spruce: Combining Utilization and Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Lstibůrek

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Traditional gene-resource management programs for forest trees are long-term endeavors requiring sustained organizational commitment covering extensive landscapes. While successful in maintaining adaptation, genetic diversity and capturing traditional growth attributes gains, these programs are dependent on rigid methods requiring elaborate mating schemes, thus making them slow in coping with climate change challenges. Here, we review the significance of Norway spruce in the boreal region and its current management practices. Next, we discuss opportunities offered by novel technologies and, with the use of computer simulations, we propose and evaluate a dynamic landscape gene-resource management in Norway. Our suggested long-term management approach capitalizes on: (1 existing afforestation activities, natural crosses, and DNA-based pedigree assembly to create structured pedigree for evaluation, thus traditional laborious control crosses are avoided and (2 landscape level genetic evaluation, rather than localized traditional progeny trials, allowing for screening of adapted individuals across multiple environmental gradients under changing climate. These advantages lead to greater genetic response to selection in adaptive traits without the traditional breeding and testing scheme, facilitating conservation of genetic resources within the breeding population of the most important forest tree species in Norway. The use of in situ selection from proven material exposed to realistic conditions over vast territories has not been conducted in forestry before. Our proposed approach is in contrast to worldwide current programs, where genetic evaluation is constrained by the range of environments where testing is conducted, which may be insufficient to capture the broad environmental variation necessary to tackle adaptation under changing climate.

  17. Evaluating litter decomposition and soil organic matter dynamics in earth system models: contrasting analysis of long-term litter decomposition and steady-state soil carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, G. B.; Wieder, W. R.

    2012-12-01

    Decomposition is a large term in the global carbon budget, but models of the earth system that simulate carbon cycle-climate feedbacks are largely untested with respect to litter decomposition. Here, we demonstrate a protocol to document model performance with respect to both long-term (10 year) litter decomposition and steady-state soil carbon stocks. First, we test the soil organic matter parameterization of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model, with data from the Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET). The LIDET dataset is a 10-year study of litter decomposition at multiple sites across North America and Central America. We show results for 10-year litter decomposition simulations compared with LIDET for 9 litter types and 20 sites in tundra, grassland, and boreal, conifer, deciduous, and tropical forest biomes. We show additional simulations with DAYCENT, a version of the CENTURY model, to ask how well an established ecosystem model matches the observations. The results reveal large discrepancy between the laboratory microcosm studies used to parameterize the CLM4 litter decomposition and the LIDET field study. Simulated carbon loss is more rapid than the observations across all sites, despite using the LIDET-provided climatic decomposition index to constrain temperature and moisture effects on decomposition. Nitrogen immobilization is similarly biased high. Closer agreement with the observations requires much lower decomposition rates, obtained with the assumption that nitrogen severely limits decomposition. DAYCENT better replicates the observations, for both carbon mass remaining and nitrogen, without requirement for nitrogen limitation of decomposition. Second, we compare global observationally-based datasets of soil carbon with simulated steady-state soil carbon stocks for both models. The models simulations were forced with observationally-based estimates of annual

  18. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-03-01

    Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  19. Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goshe, Lisa R.; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J.; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M.; Bailey, Rhonda

    2017-01-01

    Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp’s ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the “rapprochement” skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp’s ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends. PMID:28333937

  20. Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Avens

    Full Text Available Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii, the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp's ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL estimated using the "rapprochement" skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp's ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends.

  1. Landscape dynamics of aspen and conifer forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale L. Bartos

    2001-01-01

    Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) is widely dispersed across the landscape of North America. Seventy-five percent of the aspen in the western United States occurs in the states of Colorado (50%) and Utah (25%). Reproduction in aspen is primarily by asexual means, e.g., root sprouts that are generally referred to as suckers. An aspen clone consists of numerous...

  2. Orientational dynamics and energy landscape features of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    WINTEC

    Energy landscape analysis of inherent structures shows that the ... to be strikingly similar to that of supercooled molecular liquids5 .... where eiα is the α-component (in the space-fixed frame) of the unit orientation vector ei along the principal symmetry axis of the ith ellipsoid of revo- ..... understand pathways of protein folding.

  3. Modelling landslide dynamics in forested landscapes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessens, L.F.G.

    2005-01-01

    The research resulting in this thesis covers the geological, geomorphological and landscape ecology related themes of the project 'Podzolisation under Kauri (Agathis australis): for better or worse?' supported by theNetherlands Organisation

  4. Landscape sensitivity in a dynamic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jiun-Chuan; Jen, Chia-Horn

    2010-05-01

    Landscape sensitivity at different scales and topics is presented in this study. Methodological approach composed most of this paper. According to the environmental records in the south eastern Asia, the environment change is highly related with five factors, such as scale of influence area, background of environment characters, magnitude and frequency of events, thresholds of occurring hazards and influence by time factor. This paper tries to demonstrate above five points from historical and present data. It is found that landscape sensitivity is highly related to the degree of vulnerability of the land and the processes which put on the ground including human activities. The scale of sensitivity and evaluation of sensitivities is demonstrated in this paper by the data around east Asia. The methods of classification are mainly from the analysis of environmental data and the records of hazards. From the trend of rainfall records, rainfall intensity and change of temperature, the magnitude and frequency of earthquake, dust storm, days of draught, number of hazards, there are many coincidence on these factors with landscape sensitivities. In conclusion, the landscape sensitivities could be classified as four groups: physical stable, physical unstable, unstable, extremely unstable. This paper explain the difference.

  5. Nuclear Energy, Long Term Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, V.

    2006-01-01

    There are serious warnings about depletion of oil and gas and even more serious warnings about dangers of climate change caused by emission of carbon dioxide. Should developed countries be called to replace CO2 emitting energy sources as soon as possible, and the time available may not be longer then few decades, can nuclear energy answer the call and what are the requirements? Assuming optimistic contribution of renewable energy sources, can nuclear energy expand to several times present level in order to replace large part of fossil fuels use? Paper considers intermediate and long-term requirements. Future of nuclear power depends on satisfactory answers on several questions. First group of questions are those important for near and intermediate future. They deal with economics and safety of nuclear power stations in the first place. On the same time scale a generally accepted concept for radioactive waste disposal is also required. All these issues are in the focus of present research and development. Safer and more economical reactors are targets of international efforts in Generation IV and INPRO projects, but aiming further ahead these innovative projects are also addressing issues such as waste reduction and proliferation resistance. However, even assuming successful technical development of these projects, and there is no reason to doubt it, long term and large-scale nuclear power use is thereby not yet secured. If nuclear power is to play an essential role in the long-term future energy production and in reduction of CO2 emission, than several additional questions must be replied. These questions will deal with long-term nuclear fuel sufficiency, with necessary contribution of nuclear power in sectors of transport and industrial processes and with nuclear proliferation safety. This last issue is more political then technical, thus sometimes neglected by nuclear engineers, yet it will have essential role for the long-term prospects of nuclear power. The

  6. Analysing long term discursive processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horsbøl, Anders

    which extend beyond the single interaction, for instance negotiations or planning processes, seems to have played a less important role, with studies such as Iedema 2001 and Wodak 2000 as exceptions. These long term processes, however, are central to the constitution and workings of organizations......What do timescales - the notion that processes take place or can be viewed within a shorter or longer temporal range (Lemke 2005) - mean for the analysis of discourse? What are the methodological consequences of analyzing discourse at different timescales? It may be argued that discourse analysis...... in general has favored either the analysis of short term processes such as interviews, discussions, and lessons, or the analysis of non-processual entities such as (multimodal) texts, arguments, discursive repertoires, and discourses (in a Foucaultian sense). In contrast, analysis of long term processes...

  7. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  8. Long term radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavie, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

  9. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve’s capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. The POUNDS Lost study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00072995. PMID:25733628

  10. Landscape matrix mediates occupancy dynamics of Neotropical avian insectivores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Christina M.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Neel, Maile C.; Fagan, William F.; Marpa, Peter P.

    2011-01-01

    In addition to patch-level attributes (i.e., area and isolation), the nature of land cover between habitat patches (the matrix) may drive colonization and extinction dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Despite a long-standing recognition of matrix effects in fragmented systems, an understanding of the relative impacts of different types of land cover on patterns and dynamics of species occurrence remains limited. We employed multi-season occupancy models to determine the relative influence of patch area, patch isolation, within-patch vegetation structure, and landscape matrix on occupancy dynamics of nine Neotropical nsectivorous birds in 99 forest patches embedded in four matrix types (agriculture, suburban evelopment, bauxite mining, and forest) in central Jamaica. We found that within-patch vegetation structure and the matrix type between patches were more important than patch area and patch isolation in determining local colonization and local extinction probabilities, and that the effects of patch area, isolation, and vegetation structure on occupancy dynamics tended to be matrix and species dependent. Across the avian community, the landscape matrix influenced local extinction more than local colonization, indicating that extinction processes, rather than movement, likely drive interspecific differences in occupancy dynamics. These findings lend crucial empirical support to the hypothesis that species occupancy dynamics in fragmented systems may depend greatly upon the landscape context.

  11. Long-term environmental behaviour of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechignac, F.; Moberg, L.; Suomela, M.

    2000-04-01

    The radioactive pollution of the environment results from the atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (during the mid-years of twentieth century), from the development of the civilian nuclear industry and from accidents such as Chernobyl. Assessing the resulting radiation that humans might receive requires a good understanding of the long-term behaviour of radionuclides in the environment. This document reports on a joint European effort to advance this understanding, 3 multinational projects have been coordinated: PEACE, EPORA and LANDSCAPE. This report proposes an overview of the results obtained and they are presented in 6 different themes: i) redistribution in the soil-plant system, ii) modelling, iii) countermeasures, iv) runoff v) spatial variations, and vi) dose assessment. The long term behaviour of the radionuclides 137 Cs, 90 Sr and 239-240 Pu is studied through various approaches, these approaches range from in-situ experiments designed to exploit past contamination events to laboratory simulations. A broad scope of different ecosystems ranging from arctic and boreal regions down to mediterranean ones has been considered. (A.C.)

  12. Long-term environmental behaviour of radionuclides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brechignac, F.; Moberg, L.; Suomela, M

    2000-04-01

    The radioactive pollution of the environment results from the atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (during the mid-years of twentieth century), from the development of the civilian nuclear industry and from accidents such as Chernobyl. Assessing the resulting radiation that humans might receive requires a good understanding of the long-term behaviour of radionuclides in the environment. This document reports on a joint European effort to advance this understanding, 3 multinational projects have been coordinated: PEACE, EPORA and LANDSCAPE. This report proposes an overview of the results obtained and they are presented in 6 different themes: (i) redistribution in the soil-plant system, (ii) modelling, (iii) countermeasures, (iv) runoff (v) spatial variations, and (vi) dose assessment. The long term behaviour of the radionuclides {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr and {sup 239-240}Pu is studied through various approaches, these approaches range from in-situ experiments designed to exploit past contamination events to laboratory simulations. A broad scope of different ecosystems ranging from arctic and boreal regions down to mediterranean ones has been considered. (A.C.)

  13. Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

    2002-01-01

    This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

  14. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatt, Uma S. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Wackerbauer, Renate [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Polyakov, Igor V. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Newman, David E. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Sanchez, Raul E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Fusion Energy Division; Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)

    2015-11-13

    The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

  15. Dynamic synthesis for the energy transmission systems long term planning; Sintese dinamica para o planejamento a longo prazo de sistemas de transmissao de energia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salles Filho, Anirio

    1988-12-01

    An automation methodology for dynamic synthesis of electric power transmission network is presented. The dynamic synthesis problem is formulated by an optimization mathematical model. The use of a Lagrangian Relaxation strategy allows to decompose the dynamic problem in a simpler static subproblems sequence. The developed model goal is to establish options of system expansion that minimize the investments total costs and satisfy the increasing demand in time. The method is tested in transmission networks Brazilian system and the obtained results show the utility of a dynamic synthesis tool to assist in complex task of planing the transmission system expansion.

  16. Long-term dynamics of biological indicators of navaga Eleginus nawaga (Walbaum, 1792 of the White Sea in relation to changes of the reservoir temperature regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stasenkov V. A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Systematic studies of navagа of the White Sea were initiated in the late 1960-ies. Data sets on dimensional indicators, age composition of populations of navaga of the Onega, Dvina, Mezen Bays and Voronka of the White Sea have been accumulated during 45 years of observations. The aim of this work is to identify the causes of the interannual and long-term changes of biological population parameters of navaga. As investigated interannual changes reflecting fish growth, the length and mass of 2 and 3 years old specimens have been chosen. It has been proved that interannual fluctuations in length and weight may depend on the length of the feeding season, as well as the number of populations. Climate warming has resulted that over the past 45 years since the beginning of observations the water temperature in the White Sea in April on average has increased by one degree, and some years – even more. Due to lengthening of the feeding period the seasonal growth of navaga has increased, respectively the annual rates of its length and weight have increased as well. The increase in the growth rate of navaga in the Onega and Dvina Bays has led to its mass mature and joining the fishing (commercial herd at the age of two years. In the Mezen Bay and Voronka the trend on the increase in annual average length and weight navaga of only younger age groups has kept. Growth rate of large size navaga has decreased due to the almost complete cessation of fishing and the increase of older fish number. The revealed regularities in the change of the navaga population parameters of the White Sea should be used for preparing the forecast data on the state of its reserves.

  17. 85 million years of pelagic ecosystem evolution: Pacific Ocean deep-sea ichthyolith records reveal fish community dynamics and a long-term decline in sharks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibert, E. C.; Norris, R. D.; Cuevas, J. M.; Graves, L. G.

    2015-12-01

    The structure and productivity of open ocean consumers has undergone major changes over the past 85 million years. Here, we present the first long-term detailed records of pelagic fish and sharks utilizing the record of ichthyoliths (teeth and dermal scales) from the deep Pacific Ocean. While the North and South Pacific Oceans show similar patterns throughout the 85 million year history, the North Pacific ichthyolith accumulation is significantly higher than the South Pacific, suggesting that the basin has been a more productive region for tens of millions of years. Fish and sharks were not abundant in the Pacific gyres until ~75 million years ago (Ma) suggesting that neither group was quantitatively important in oligotrophic pelagic food webs prior to the latest Cretaceous. Relative to ray-finned fish, sharks were common in the ancient ocean. Most ichthyolith assemblages have >50% shark dermal scales (denticles), but denticle abundance has been declining in both absolute and relative abundance since the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K/Pg) mass extinction. The accumulation rate of ichthyoliths of both sharks and ray-finned fish was highest in the Early Eocene, during the peak of the Cenozoic 'greenhouse' climate where production of shark dermal denticles and fish teeth increased almost five times over Paleocene production rates. Ichthyolith fluxes fell with cooler climates in the later Eocene and Oligocene, but fish production is almost always higher than in the Cretaceous and Paleocene reflecting the expanded ecological roles and importance of pelagic fish in marine ecosystems. Shark denticle production fell to less than half that of the Cretaceous by 20 Ma when it dropped abruptly to near-zero levels. Currently denticles make up sharks appear to be falling as major pelagic consumers over the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic, and particularly over the past 20 Ma, perhaps reflecting demographic changes in shark and fish communities, or the rise of resource competition from

  18. Long-term biodosimetry Redux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

    2016-01-01

    This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

  19. Optimal Long-Term Financial Contracting

    OpenAIRE

    Peter M. DeMarzo; Michael J. Fishman

    2007-01-01

    We develop an agency model of financial contracting. We derive long-term debt, a line of credit, and equity as optimal securities, capturing the debt coupon and maturity; the interest rate and limits on the credit line; inside versus outside equity; dividend policy; and capital structure dynamics. The optimal debt-equity ratio is history dependent, but debt and credit line terms are independent of the amount financed and, in some cases, the severity of the agency problem. In our model, the ag...

  20. Using spatial-stream-network models and long-term data to understand and predict dynamics of faecal contamination in a mixed land-use catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neill, Aaron James; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Strachan, Norval James Colin; Hough, Rupert Lloyd; Avery, Lisa Marie; Watson, Helen; Soulsby, Chris

    2018-01-15

    An 11year dataset of concentrations of E. coli at 10 spatially-distributed sites in a mixed land-use catchment in NE Scotland (52km 2 ) revealed that concentrations were not clearly associated with flow or season. The lack of a clear flow-concentration relationship may have been due to greater water fluxes from less-contaminated headwaters during high flows diluting downstream concentrations, the importance of persistent point sources of E. coli both anthropogenic and agricultural, and possibly the temporal resolution of the dataset. Point sources and year-round grazing of livestock probably obscured clear seasonality in concentrations. Multiple linear regression models identified potential for contamination by anthropogenic point sources as a significant predictor of long-term spatial patterns of low, average and high concentrations of E. coli. Neither arable nor pasture land was significant, even when accounting for hydrological connectivity with a topographic-index method. However, this may have reflected coarse-scale land-cover data inadequately representing "point sources" of agricultural contamination (e.g. direct defecation of livestock into the stream) and temporal changes in availability of E. coli from diffuse sources. Spatial-stream-network models (SSNMs) were applied in a novel context, and had value in making more robust catchment-scale predictions of concentrations of E. coli with estimates of uncertainty, and in enabling identification of potential "hot spots" of faecal contamination. Successfully managing faecal contamination of surface waters is vital for safeguarding public health. Our finding that concentrations of E. coli could not clearly be associated with flow or season may suggest that management strategies should not necessarily target only high flow events or summer when faecal contamination risk is often assumed to be greatest. Furthermore, we identified SSNMs as valuable tools for identifying possible "hot spots" of contamination which

  1. Long-term vegetation dynamics in a megadiverse hotspot: The ice-age record of a pre-montane forest of central Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montoya, E.; Keen, H.; Luzuriaga, C.X.; Gosling, W.D.

    Tropical ecosystems play a key role in many aspects of Earth system dynamics currently of global concern, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity. To accurately understand complex tropical systems it is necessary to parameterise key ecological aspects, such as rates of change (RoC), species

  2. Initial observations on tree mortality following a severe drought in 2012 in two Indiana state forests and implications for long-term compositional dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew R. Meier; Mike R. Saunders

    2014-01-01

    Compositional and structural changes in response to silvicultural treatments in forest stands are well documented (e.g., Saunders and Wagner 2008), but the stochastic nature of natural disturbance events often precludes direct observation of their impacts on stand dynamics. Though the current dominance of oak-hickory forest types in the Central Hardwoods Forest region...

  3. Long-Term Effects of Season of Prescribed Burn on the Fine-Root Growth, Root Carbohydrates, and Foliar Dynamics of Mature Longleaf Pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric A. Kuehler; Mary Anne Sword Sayer; James D. Haywood; C. Dan Andries

    2004-01-01

    Depending on the season and intensity of fire, as well as the phenology of foliage and new root growth, fire may damage foliage, and subsequently decrease whole-crown carbon fixation and allocation to the root system. In central Louisiana the authors investigated how season of prescribed burning affects fine-root dynamics, root carbohydrate relations, and leaf area...

  4. Navigating Long-Term Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Holt MD

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Americans over age 65 constitute a larger percentage of the population each year: from 14% in 2010 (40 million elderly to possibly 20% in 2030 (70 million elderly. In 2015, an estimated 66 million people provided care to the ill, disabled, and elderly in the United States. In 2000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, 15 million Americans used some form of long-term care: adult day care, home health, nursing home, or hospice. In all, 13% of people over 85 years old, compared with 1% of those ages 65 to 74, live in nursing homes in the United States. Transitions of care, among these various levels of care, are common: Nursing home to hospital transfer, one of the best-studied transitions, occurs in more than 25% of nursing home residents per year. This article follows one patient through several levels of care.

  5. Modeling Coupled Landscape Evolution and Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics in Intensively Management Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Q.; Kumar, P.

    2017-12-01

    Soil is the largest reservoir of carbon in the biosphere but in agricultural areas it is going through rapid erosion due disturbance arising from crop harvest, tillage, and tile drainage. Identifying whether the production of soil organic carbon (SOC) from the crops can compensate for the loss due to erosion is critical to ensure our food security and adapt to climate change. In the U.S. Midwest where large areas of land are intensively managed for agriculture practices, predicting soil quantity and quality are critical for maintaining crop yield and other Critical Zone services. This work focuses on modeling the coupled landscape evolutions soil organic carbon dynamics in agricultural fields. It couples landscape evolution, surface water runoff, organic matter transformation, and soil moisture dynamics to understand organic carbon gain and loss due to natural forcing and farming practices, such as fertilizer application and tillage. A distinctive feature of the model is the coupling of surface ad subsurface processes that predicts both surficial changes and transport along with the vertical transport and dynamics. Our results show that landscape evolution and farming practices play dominant roles in soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics both above- and below-ground. Contrary to the common assumption that a vertical profile of SOC concentration decreases exponentially with depth, we find that in many situations SOC concentration below-ground could be higher than that at the surface. Tillage plays a complex role in organic matter dynamics. On one hand, tillage would accelerate the erosion rate, on the other hand, it would improve carbon storage by burying surface SOC into below ground. Our model consistently reproduces the observed above- and below-ground patterns of SOC in the field sites of Intensively Managed Landscapes Critical Zone Observatory (IMLCZO). This model bridges the gaps between the landscape evolution, below- and above-ground hydrologic cycle, and

  6. A Fire Severity Mapping System (FSMS) for real-time management applications and long term planning: Developing a map of the landscape potential for severe fire in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory K. Dillon; Zachary A. Holden; Penny Morgan; Bob Keane

    2009-01-01

    The Fire Severity Mapping System project is geared toward providing fire managers across the western United States with critical information for dealing with and planning for the ecological effects of wildfire at multiple levels of thematic, spatial, and temporal detail. For this project, we are developing a comprehensive, west-wide map of the landscape potential for...

  7. Dynamic posterior stabilization for degenerative lumbar spine disease: a large consecutive case series with long-term follow-up by additional postal survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greiner-Perth, R; Sellhast, N; Perler, G; Dietrich, D; Staub, L P; Röder, C

    2016-08-01

    Dynamic stabilization of the degenerated spine was invented to overcome the negative side effects of fusion surgery like adjacent segment degeneration. Amongst various different implants DSS(®) is a pedicle-based dynamic device for stabilizing the spine and preserving motion. Nearly no clinical data of the implant have been reported so far. The current analysis presents results from a single spine surgeon who has been using DSS(®) for the past 5 years and recorded all treatment and outcome data in the international Spine Tango registry. From the prospectively documented overall patient pool 436 cases treated with DSS(®) could be identified. The analysis was enhanced with a mailing of COMI patient questionnaires for generating longer-term follow-ups up to 4 years. 387 patients (189 male, 198 female; mean age 67.3 years) with degenerative lumbar spinal disease including degenerative spondylolisthesis (6.1 %) could be evaluated. The type of degeneration was mainly spinal stenosis (89.9 %). After a mean follow-up of 1.94 years, the COMI score and NRS back and leg pain improved significantly and to a clinically relevant extent. The postoperative trend analysis could not determine a relevant deterioration of these outcomes until 4 years postoperative. 10 patients were revised (2.6 %) and the implant was removed; in most cases, a fusion was performed. Another 5 cases (1.3 %) had an extension of the dynamic stabilization system to the adjacent level. 84.2 % of patients rated that the surgery had helped a lot or had helped. The results of this large consecutive series with a follow-up up to 4 years could demonstrate a good and stable clinical outcome after posterior dynamic stabilization with DSS(®). For degenerative diseases of the lumbar spine, this treatment seems to be a valid alternative to fusion surgery.

  8. Landscape seasons and air mass dynamics in Latvia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krauklis, A.; Draveniece, A.

    2004-01-01

    Latvia is located in the middle of an area where the boreal and nemoral zones and the regions of oceanic and continental climate meet, and it was studied as a model territory of the most typical variation of boreo-nemoral ecotone. The subject of this study was seasonal dynamics of the state of landscapes and diachronous links between seasons. It was found that landscapes undergo 12 seasonal states or seasons during the annual cycle of insulation and air mass occurrence. Each season may be distinguished by a definite amount of solar radiation, distinctive state of heat and water balance, phenological state of vegetation, and a distinctive occurrence of different air mass types and their particular 'association'. During each season these variables show a particular combination of numerical values and a distinctive landscape pattern

  9. Conservation of butterfly populations in dynamic landscapes: The role of farming practices and landscape mosaic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Aviron, S.; Kindlmann, Pavel; Burel, F.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 205, 1-2 (2007), s. 135-145 ISSN 0304-3800 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA6087301; GA MŠk LC06073; GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Connectivity * Landscape dynamics * Resource disturbance * Movement * Simulation model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.077, year: 2007

  10. Use of carbon isotope analysis to understand semi-arid erosion dynamics and long-term semi-arid land degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, Laura; Brazier, Richard E; Wainwright, John; Dixon, Liz; Bol, Roland

    2008-06-01

    Many semi-arid areas worldwide are becoming degraded, in the form of C(4) grasslands being replaced by C(3) shrublands, which causes an increase in surface runoff and erosion, and altered nutrient cycling, which may affect global biogeochemical cycling. The prevention or control of vegetation transitions is hindered by a lack of understanding of their temporal and spatial dynamics, particularly in terms of interactions between biotic and abiotic processes. This research investigates (1) the effects of soil erosion on the delta(13)C values of soil organic matter (SOM) throughout the soil profile and its implications for reconstructing vegetation change using carbon-isotope analysis and (2) the spatial properties of erosion over a grass-shrub transition to increase understanding of biotic-abiotic interactions by using delta(13)C signals of eroded material as a sediment tracer. Results demonstrate that the soils over grass-shrub transitions are not in steady state. A complex interplay of factors determines the input of SOM to the surface horizon of the soil and its subsequent retention and turnover through the soil profile. A positive correlation between event runoff and delta(13)C signatures of eroded sediment was found in all plots. This indicates that the delta(13)C signatures of eroded sediment may provide a means of distinguishing between changes in erosion dynamics over runoff events of different magnitudes and over different vegetation types. The development of this technique using delta(13)C signatures of eroded sediment provides a new means of furthering existing understanding of erosion dynamics over vegetation transitions. This is critical in terms of understanding biotic-abiotic feedbacks and the evolution of areas subject to vegetation change in semi-arid environments. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

  11. Long-term analyses of snow dynamics within the french Alps on the 1900-2100 period. Analyses of historical snow water equivalent observations, modelisations and projections of a hundred of snow courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.

    2017-12-01

    of the Alps, on a region spanning 200 km. Caracterisation of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts snow resorts and artificial snow production developments and multi-purposes dam reservoirs managments.

  12. The dynamic landscape of the cell nucleus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Christopher M; Bellini, Michel

    2010-01-01

    While the cell nucleus was described for the first time almost two centuries ago, our modern view of the nuclear architecture is primarily based on studies from the last two decades. This surprising late start coincides with the development of new, powerful strategies to probe for the spatial organization of nuclear activities in both fixed and live cells. As a result, three major principles have emerged: first, the nucleus is not just a bag filled with nucleic acids and proteins. Rather, many distinct functional domains, including the chromosomes, resides within the confines of the nuclear envelope. Second, all these nuclear domains are highly dynamic, with molecules exchanging rapidly between them and the surrounding nucleoplasm. Finally, the motion of molecules within the nucleoplasm appears to be mostly driven by random diffusion. Here, the emerging roles of several subnuclear domains are discussed in the context of the dynamic functions of the cell nucleus.

  13. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  14. Long term study of mechanical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed M. Diab

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, properties of limestone cement concrete containing different replacement levels of limestone powder were examined. It includes 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25% of limestone powder as a partial replacement of cement. Silica fume was added incorporated with limestone powder in some mixes to enhance the concrete properties. Compressive strength, splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity were determined. Also, durability of limestone cement concrete with different C3A contents was examined. The weight loss, length change and cube compressive strength loss were measured for concrete attacked by 5% sodium sulfate using an accelerated test up to 525 days age. The corrosion resistance was measured through accelerated corrosion test using first crack time, cracking width and steel reinforcement weight loss. Consequently, for short and long term, the use of limestone up to 10% had not a significant reduction in concrete properties. It is not recommended to use blended limestone cement in case of sulfate attack. The use of limestone cement containing up to 25% limestone has insignificant effect on corrosion resistance before cracking.

  15. Long-term competence restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Douglas R; DeYoung, Nathaniel J

    2014-01-01

    While the United States Supreme Court's Jackson v. Indiana decision and most state statutes mandate determinations of incompetent defendants' restoration probabilities, courts and forensic clinicians continue to lack empirical evidence to guide these determinations and do not yet have a consensus regarding whether and under what circumstances incompetent defendants are restorable. The evidence base concerning the restoration likelihood of those defendants who fail initial restoration efforts is even further diminished and has largely gone unstudied. In this study, we examined the disposition of a cohort of defendants who underwent long-term competence restoration efforts (greater than six months) and identified factors related to whether these defendants were able to attain restoration and adjudicative success. Approximately two-thirds (n = 52) of the 81 individuals undergoing extended restoration efforts were eventually deemed restored to competence. Lengths of hospitalization until successful restoration are presented with implications for the reasonable length of time that restoration efforts should persist. Older individuals were less likely to be restored and successfully adjudicated, and individuals with more severe charges and greater factual legal understanding were more likely to be restored and adjudicated. The significance of these findings for courts and forensic clinicians is discussed.

  16. Uranium ... long-term confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1983-01-01

    Half way through 1983 the outlook for the world's uranium producers was far from bright if one takes a short term view. The readily accessible facts present a gloomy picture. The spot prices of uranium over the past few years decreased from a high of $42-$43/lb to a low of $17 in 1982. It now hovers between $23 and $24. the contract prices negotiated between producers and consumers are not so accessible but they do not reflect the spot price. The reasons why contractual uranium prices do not follow the usual dictates of supply and demand are related to the position in which uranium and associated power industries find themselves. There is public reaction with strong emotional overtones as well as much reduced expectations about the electric power needs of the world. Furthermore the supply of uranium is not guaranteed despite present over production. However the people in the industry, taking the medium- and long-term view, are not despondent

  17. Long-term corrosion studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gdowski, G.

    1998-01-01

    The scope of this activity is to assess the long-term corrosion properties of metallic materials under consideration for fabricating waste package containers. Three classes of metals are to be assessed: corrosion resistant, intermediate corrosion resistant, and corrosion allowance. Corrosion properties to be evaluated are general, pitting and crevice corrosion, stress-corrosion cracking, and galvanic corrosion. The performance of these materials will be investigated under conditions that are considered relevant to the potential emplacement site. Testing in four aqueous solutions, and vapor phases above them, and at two temperatures are planned for this activity. (The environmental conditions, test metals, and matrix are described in detail in Section 3.0.) The purpose and objective of this activity is to obtain the kinetic and mechanistic information on degradation of metallic alloys currently being considered for waste package containers. This information will be used to provide assistance to (1) waste package design (metal barrier selection) (E-20-90 to E-20-92), (2) waste package performance assessment activities (SIP-PA-2), (3) model development (E-20-75 to E-20-89). and (4) repository license application

  18. Improving Long-term Quality and Continuity of Landsat-7 Data Through Inpainting of Lost Data Based on the Nonconvex Model of Dynamic Dictionary Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, J.; Zhou, Z.; Zhou, X.; Huang, T.

    2017-12-01

    On May 31, 2003, the scan line corrector (SLC) of the Enhance Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) on board the Landsat-7 satellite was broken down, resulting in strips of lost data in the Landsat-7 images, which seriously affected the quality and continuous applications of the ETM+ data for space and earth science. This paper proposes a new inpainting method for repairing the Landsat-7 ETM+ images taking into account the physical characteristics and geometric features of the ground area of which the data are missed. Firstly, the two geometric slopes of the boundaries of each missing stripe of the georeferenced ETM+ image is calculated by the Hough, ignoring the slope of the part of the missing strip that are on the same edges of the whole image. Secondly, an adaptive dictionary was developed and trained using a large number of Landsat-7 ETM+ SLC-ON images. When the adaptive dictionary is used to restore an image with missing data, the dictionary is actually dynamic. Then the data-missing strips were repaired along their slope directions by using the logdet (.) low-rank non-convex model along with dynamic dictionary. Imperfect points are defined as the pixels whose values are quite different from its surrounding pixel values. They can be real values but most likely can be noise. Lastly, the imperfect points after the second step were replaced by using the method of sparse restoration of the overlapping groups. We take the Landsat ETM+ images of June 10, 2002 as the test image for our algorithm evaluation. There is no data missing in this image. Therefore we extract the same missing -stripes of the images of the same WRS path and WRS row as the 2002 image but acquired after 2003 to form the missing-stripe model. Then we overlay the missing-stripe model over the image of 2002 to get the simulated missing image. Fig.1(a)-(c) show the simulated missing images of Bands 1, 3, and 5 of the 2002 ETM+ image data. We apply the algorithm to restore the missing stripes. Fig.1(d

  19. Long-Term Urban Market Dynamics Reveal Increased Bushmeat Carcass Volume despite Economic Growth and Proactive Environmental Legislation on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Drew T.; Woloszynek, Stephen; Morra, Wayne A.; Honarvar, Shaya; Linder, Joshua M.; Gonder, Mary Katherine; O’Connor, Michael P.; Hearn, Gail W.

    2015-01-01

    Bushmeat hunting is extensive in west and central Africa as both a means for subsistence and for commercial gain. Commercial hunting represents one of the primary threats to wildlife in the region, and confounding factors have made it challenging to examine how external factors influence the commercial bushmeat trade. Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea is a small island with large tracts of intact forest that support sizeable populations of commercially valuable vertebrates, especially endemic primates. The island also has a low human population and has experienced dramatic economic growth and rapid development since the mid-1990’s. From October 1997 – September 2010, we monitored the largest bushmeat market on Bioko in Malabo, recording over 197,000 carcasses for sale. We used these data to analyze the dynamics of the market in relation to political events, environmental legislation, and rapid economic growth. Our findings suggest that bushmeat hunting and availability increased in parallel with the growth of Equatorial Guinea’s GDP and disposable income of its citizens. During this 13-year study, the predominant mode of capture shifted from trapping to shotguns. Consequently, carcass volume and rates of taxa typically captured with shotguns increased significantly, most notably including intensified hunting of Bioko's unique and endangered monkey fauna. Attempts to limit bushmeat sales, including a 2007 ban on primate hunting and trade, were only transiently effective. The hunting ban was not enforced, and was quickly followed by a marked increase in bushmeat hunting compared to hunting rates prior to the ban. Our results emphasize the negative impact that rapid development and unenforced legislation have had on Bioko’s wildlife, and demonstrate the need for strong governmental support if conservation strategies are to be successful at preventing extinctions of tropical wildlife. PMID:26230504

  20. Climate change impact on landscape fire and forest biomass dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to improve current understandings of fire regimes. The estimation of biomass dynamics at the stand scale is essential for understanding landscape scale biomass dynamics, particularly in order to understand the potential effects of fire regimes. This study presented a synthesis of research results obtained from stand scale studies together with fire behaviour and weather variables. Landscape structure, topography and climate conditions were also considered. Integration of the data was conducted with the SEM-LAND model, a spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics. Equations for the model were presented, including fire initiation and spread, as well as a lightning fire process and simulated fire suppression. Results indicated that fire suppression could alter the distribution of fire sizes. The effect of tree and stand mortality on forest biomass estimates was also discussed along with the impact of climate change on fire regimes. Results indicate that fire activities are likely to increase. Results also demonstrate that fire frequency and size distribution are correlated without human intervention. Theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution is not always supported by empirical observations. Point-based fire frequency and fire cycle definitions are special cases from a computational perspective. Detection of quantitative interrelationships may simplify preconditions for estimating fire regimes, and serve as a means to address incomplete empirical observations. 12 refs., 3 figs

  1. Trends of Forest Dynamics in Tiger Landscapes Across Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Pinki; Nagendra, Harini

    2011-10-01

    Protected areas (PAs) are cornerstones of biodiversity conservation, but small parks alone cannot support wide-ranging species, such as the tiger. Hence, forest dynamics in the surrounding landscapes of PAs are also important to tiger conservation. Tiger landscapes often support considerable human population in proximity of the PA, sometimes within the core itself, and thus are subject to various land use activities (such as agricultural expansion and road development) driving habitat loss and fragmentation. We synthesize information from 27 journal articles in 24 tiger landscapes to assess forest-cover dynamics in tiger-range countries. Although 29% of the PAs considered in this study have negligible change in overall forest cover, approximately 71% are undergoing deforestation and fragmentation. Approximately 58% of the total case studies have human settlements within the core area. Most changes—including agricultural expansion, plantation, and farming (52%), fuelwood and fodder collection (43%), logging (38%), grazing (38%), and tourism and development (10%)—can be attributed to human impacts largely linked to the nature of the management regime. This study highlights the need for incorporating new perspectives, ideas, and lessons learned locally and across borders into management plans to ensure tiger conservation in landscapes dominated by human activities. Given the increasing isolation of most parks due to agricultural, infrastructural, and commercial developments at the periphery, it is imperative to conduct planning and evaluation at the landscape level, as well as incorporate multiple actors and institutions in planning, instead of focusing solely on conservation within the PAs as is currently the case in most tiger parks.

  2. The effect of long-term weight-loss intervention strategies on the dynamics of pancreatic-fat and morphology: An MRI RCT study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tene, Lilac; Shelef, Ilan; Schwarzfuchs, Dan; Gepner, Yftach; Yaskolka Meir, Anat; Tsaban, Gal; Zelicha, Hila; Bilitzky, Avital; Komy, Oded; Cohen, Noa; Bril, Nitzan; Rein, Michal; Serfaty, Dana; Kenigsbuch, Shira; Chassidim, Yoash; Sarusy, Benjamin; Ceglarek, Uta; Stumvoll, Michael; Blüher, Matthias; Thiery, Joachim; Stampfer, Meir J; Rudich, Assaf; Shai, Iris

    2018-04-01

    The ability to mobilize pancreatic-fat and the meaning of decreased fat in the pancreas remain controversial. We followed the dynamics of pancreatic-fat and its morphology during various long weight-loss induced lifestyle-interventions. In isolated workplace with monitored/provided lunch, we randomly assigned healthy persons with abdominal obesity or dyslipidemia for one of two 18-month equal-caloric diets: low-fat (LF) or Mediterranean/low-carbohydrate (Med/LC, with provided 1oz walnuts/day), with or without added moderate exercise (supervised gym membership). We used magnetic-resonance-imaging to quantify pancreatic-fat and morphology. At baseline, 277 eligible participants (mean age = 48 years; 88% men; pancreatic-fat = 17.4 ± 5.1%) had higher pancreatic-fat in men (17.7 ± 4.9% vs 14.9 ± 5.5% in women; p = 0.004). Following 18-month intervention (adherence = 86.3%) and moderate weight-loss (mean = -3.0 ± 5.5 kg), pancreatic-fat decreased moderately but significantly (-0.26 ± 2.18% units; p = 0.049). Med/LC diet induced a greater decrease in pancreatic-fat compared to LF (p = 0.043), and the combination of Med/LC diet + exercise exhibited the highest reduction (-0.69% units) as compared to LF diet without exercise (+0.12%units; p = 0.027 between groups). In multivariate regression models, after further adjusted for visceral adipose-tissue (ΔVAT), pancreatic-fat loss associated with both decreases in pancreatic-morphology ratio (perimeter divided by area; beta = 0.361; p  0.2 for all). Pancreatic-fat loss is mainly associated with improved lipid, rather than glycemic profiles. Med/LC diet, mostly with exercise, may benefit pancreatic-fat loss. Pancreatic-morphology could serve as a biomarker of pancreatic-fat state. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01530724). Copyright © 2018 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. An autostratigraphic view of the long-term dynamics of delta distributary channels: A new step forward with the grade index model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naruse, H.; Muto, T.

    2017-12-01

    Autostratigraphy is the stratigraphy that is generated by large-scale, deterministic autogenic processes of depositional systems, based on the full recognition of non-equilibrium behavior in response to steady external forcing. Recent experimental studies to explore the effects of basin water depth on the dynamics of distributary channels have brought a new geometrical scheme, here referred to as the grade index model, which is expected to make a significant step forward for development of the autostratigraphy of river deltas. Grade index (0 ≤ Gindex ≤1) is a dimensionless number that describes how close the alluvial river is to a graded state and is given as the ratio of subaerial allocation of the supplied sediment to both subaerial and subaqueous allocation of the sediment, in the form of a function of dimensionless basin water depth (h*). The grade index model for a particular geometrical setting suggests that as h* increase toward +∞, all of dimensionless magnitudes of delta progradation rate (Rpro*), alluvial aggradation rate (Ragg*), channel migration rate (Rmig*), avulsion frequency decrease toward 0, and all of dimensionless timescales of channel shifting (τs*), recurrence of channels (τr*), channel avulsion (τA*) increase toward +∞, and also that Rpro* = Ragg* = Rmig* = fA* = (τs*)-1 = (τr*)-1 = (τA* )-1 = Gindex. This grade index model, despite its simple structure, offers deep insight into the rationale of shoreline autoretreat, a typical large-scale, deterministic autogenic process that is realized by non-equilibrium response to steady base level rise. A simple geometrical modeling leads to a finding that Ppro* = (1 - Ab*) Gindex, where Ab* is a dimensionless form of the bottom surface of the deltaic deposit (Ab) given by dividing Ab with the square of autostratigraphic length scale (Λ). As the delta grows with base level rise, Ab progressively increases and then inevitably meets an event that Ab* exceeds 1 (i.e. Ab exceeds Λ2). We also

  4. Long term reduction of Caesium and Strontium transfer factors from soil in foodstuff and dynamics of internal doses for a russian population after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shutov, V.N.; Bruk, J.Ja.; Travnikova, I.G.; Balonov, M.I.

    2002-01-01

    The model of the formation of the internal doses for the population living on the territory contaminated after the Chernobyl accident is described. Model parameters were obtained on the base of natural measurements results implemented in the different terms after the accident. The data on the caesium radionuclides content in the bodies of the inhabitants measurements were priority for the internal exposure dose estimation. In the case of the absence of such information, the results of the radionuclides content in the food products analysis or the data on the soil types prevailing in the areas of settlements, were used for the calculations. The data were obtained during 1986-2001 as a result of monitoring of contaminated areas in Russia that considerably differ in their soil and climate conditions, the levels of 1 37C s and 9 0S r surface activity on soil and types of countermeasures applied. A summary of effective half-lives (T 1/2 ) of 1 37C s and 9 0S r aggregated transfer factors (Tag) from soil into agricultural and natural products observed after the Chernobyl fallout is given. The short term decrease of 1 37C s Tag from soil into milk and beef during two months after fallout were observed - T 1/2 varied from 13 d to 36 d in depend on the part of dry and wet fallout. The studies between autumn 1986 and 1991 suggest a decrease in the 1 37C s Tag with T 1/2 /2 =1-2 years. From 5-6 years after deposition onwards T 1/2 /2 of 1 37 Cs and 9 0S r Tag's in the range of 8 to 21 years were observed. Effective half-lives of 1 37C s Tag's for foods from semi-natural ecosystems (mushrooms, berries, game, fish) are longer (up to tens years). On at least for some natural products the decrease seems to be only to radioactive decay. Comparison of the data on the dynamics of 1 37C s content in agricultural and natural food products indicates that the contribution of the latter in the internal dose of population grows with each year after fallout, and can reach in the remote

  5. Long-term effects of elevated ozone and UV-B radiation on vegetation and methane dynamics in northern peatland ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morsky, S.K.

    2012-06-15

    In the stratosphere, ozone (O{sub 3}) forms an effective barrier against high energy ultraviolet radiation (UV), which is harmful to living cells. Despite the stratospheric O{sub 3} layer recovering due to international agreements, seasonal O{sub 3} depletion periods with high UV-B levels, may still occur, especially in the Polar regions. In the troposphere, O{sub 3} is a significant greenhouse gas contributing to global warming and also causing oxidative stress to animal- and plant cells. Global tropospheric O{sub 3} concentration has approximately doubled during the last century and the same trend is expected to continue. Northern peatlands are sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and sources of the powerful greenhouse gas methane (CH{sub 4}). Two multi-year open-field experiments were conducted to study the effects of elevated O{sub 3} concentration and UV-B radiation on peatland vegetation and CH{sub 4} dynamics in Finland. Peatland microcosms were used in the O{sub 3} experiment and the UV-B exposure study was conducted on a natural fen. Elevated O{sub 3} concentration significantly increased leaf cross-sections and the total number of Eriophorum vaginatum leaves towards the end of the experiment, but did not affect relative length growth, stomatal density or volume of aerenchymatous tissue of leaves. Elevated O{sub 3} did not affect relative length growth of Sphagnum papillosum shoots either. Concentrations of chlorophylls or carotenoids in E. vaginatum leaves or in S. papillosum shoots were not changed under elevated O{sub 3}. During the first growing season, elevated O{sub 3} concentration decreased methanol-extractable, UV-absorbing compounds in E. vaginatum leaves. Elevated O{sub 3} increased concentrations of organic acids and microbial biomass (estimated by phospholipid fatty acid biomarkers) in peat during the third growing season. In the first growing season net CH{sub 4} emission was temporarily decreased by elevated O{sub 3} concentration

  6. Long-term behaviour of radioactive nuclides in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechignac, F.; Moberg, L.; Suomela, M.

    1999-01-01

    Report of recent advances in Europe, regarding the long-term development of radioactive nuclides in the environment. The corresponding scientific findings from three projects - Peace, Landscape and Epora (involving 18 European laboratories) - have been collected together. These projects were managed by the IPSN for the European Commission (DG XII) in the framework of the programme 'Surete de la fission nucleaire' (Nuclear fission safety programme). (author)

  7. Dynamics of a temperate deciduous forest under landscape-scale management: Implications for adaptability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew G. Olson; Benjamin O. Knapp; John M. Kabrick

    2017-01-01

    Landscape forest management is an approach to meeting diverse objectives that collectively span multiple spatial scales. It is critical that we understand the long-term effects of landscape management on the structure and composition of forest tree communities to ensure that these practices are sustainable. Furthermore, it is increasingly important to also consider...

  8. Belowground Plant Dynamics Across an Arctic Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmon, V. G.; Iversen, C. M.; Breen, A. L.; Thornton, P. E.; Wullschleger, S.

    2017-12-01

    with increased soil N availability and altered chemistry in neighboring plants. This research aims to identify sources of variation in belowground plant traits and provide insight into how incorporating belowground plant dynamics into Earth system models may improve our ability to predict the fate of these rapidly warming ecosystems.

  9. How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Thomas; Olson, K.A.; Dressler, G.; Leimgruber, Peter; Fuller, Todd K.; Nicholson, Craig; Novaro, A.J.; Bolgeri, M.J.; Wattles, David W.; DeStefano, Stephen; Calabrese, J.M.; Fagan, William F.

    2011-01-01

    Aim  To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species.Locations  Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.Methods  We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity.Results  Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape.Main conclusions

  10. Research priorities for grassland science: the need of long term integrated experiments networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lemaire

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Grasslands have to be considered not only as a mean for providing foods for domestic herbivore but also as an important biome of terrestrial biosphere. This function of grasslands as an active component of our environment requires specific studies on the role and impact of this ecosystem on soil erosion and soil quality, quality and quantity of water resources, atmosphere composition and greenhouse gas emission or sequestration, biodiversity dynamics at different scales from field plot to landscape. All these functions have to be evaluated in conjunction with the function of providing animal products for increasing human population. So multifunctionality of grasslands become a new paradigm for grassland science. Environmental and biodiversity outputs require long term studies, being the long term retro-active processes within soil, vegetation and micro-organism communities in relation to changes in management programme. So grassland science needs to carry on long term integrated experimentation for studying all the environmental outputs and ecological services associated to grassland management systems.

  11. Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crees, Jennifer J.; Li, Zhipeng; Bielby, Jon; Yuan, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives. PMID:29167363

  12. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage

  13. Financing long term liabilities (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    charges and fees levied from the waste producers. Altogether, financial resources for decommissioning are needed for the following steps: the post-operational phase in which the facility is prepared for dismantling after its final shut-down, dismantling of the radioactive part of the facility, management, storage and disposal of the radioactive waste, restoration of the site, licensing and regulatory supervision of all these steps. Additional means are necessary for the management, storage and disposal of the spent fuel. The way in which the availability of financial resources is secured differs between public owned installations and installations of the private power utilities. In Germany, past practices has resulted in singular contaminated sites of limited extent, mainly during the first half of the 20. century. Those contaminated sites have been or are being cleaned up and redeveloped. In large areas of Saxony and Thuringia, the geological formations permitted the surface and underground mining of Uranium ore. Facilities of the former Soviet-German WISMUT Ltd. where ore was mined and processed from 1946 until the early 1990's can be found at numerous sites. In the course of the re-unification of Germany, the soviet shares of the WISMUT were taken over by the Federal Republic of Germany and the closure of the WISMUT facilities was initiated. In that phase the extent of the damages to the environment and of the necessary remediation work became clear. All mining and milling sites are now closed and are under decommissioning. A comprehensive remediation concept covers all WISMUT sites. Heaps and mill-tailing ponds are transferred into a long-term stable condition. The area of the facilities to be remediated amounts to more than 30 km 2 . Heaps cover a total area of ca. 15,5 km 2 , tailing ponds in which the tailings resulting from the Uranium production are stored as sludges cover 6,3 km 2 ). In total, the remediation issues are very complex and without precedent. The

  14. Emergence of Long-Term Memory in Popularity

    OpenAIRE

    Soh, Hyungjoon; Hong, Joo Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Jeong, Hawoong

    2017-01-01

    Popularity describes the dynamics of mass attention, and is a part of a broader class of population dynamics in ecology and social science literature. Studying accurate model of popularity is important for quantifying spreading of novelty, memes, and influences in human society. Although logistic equation and similar class of nonlinear differential equation formulates traditional population dynamics well, part of the deviation in long-term prediction is stated, yet fully understood. Recently,...

  15. A Long-term Plan for Kalk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    In this case, the author demonstrates together with the owner-manager of KALK A/S, Mr Rasmus Jorgensen, how to use the Family Business Map to frame a constructive discussion about long-term planning. The Family Business Map is a tool for long-term planning in family firms developed by Professor...

  16. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  17. Measuring urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossola, Alessandro; Hopton, Matthew E

    2018-01-15

    The spatial arrangement of urban vegetation depends on urban morphology and socio-economic settings. Urban vegetation changes over time because of human management. Urban trees are removed due to hazard prevention or aesthetic preferences. Previous research attributed tree loss to decreases in canopy cover. However, this provides little information about location and structural characteristics of trees lost, as well as environmental and social factors affecting tree loss dynamics. This is particularly relevant in residential landscapes where access to residential parcels for field surveys is limited. We tested whether multi-temporal airborne LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery collected at a 5-year interval can be used to investigate urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes in Denver, CO and Milwaukee, WI, covering 400,705 residential parcels in 444 census tracts. Position and stem height of trees lost were extracted from canopy height models calculated as the difference between final (year 5) and initial (year 0) vegetation height derived from LiDAR. Multivariate regression models were used to predict number and height of tree stems lost in residential parcels in each census tract based on urban morphological and socio-economic variables. A total of 28,427 stems were lost from residential parcels in Denver and Milwaukee over 5years. Overall, 7% of residential parcels lost one stem, averaging 90.87 stems per km 2 . Average stem height was 10.16m, though trees lost in Denver were taller compared to Milwaukee. The number of stems lost was higher in neighborhoods with higher canopy cover and developed before the 1970s. However, socio-economic characteristics had little effect on tree loss dynamics. The study provides a simple method for measuring urban tree loss dynamics within and across entire cities, and represents a further step toward high resolution assessments of the three-dimensional change of urban vegetation at large spatial scales. Published by

  18. The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

    2006-01-01

    Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

  19. Short-horizon regulation for long-term investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Z.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    We study the effects of imposing repeated short-horizon regulatory constraints on long-term investors. We show that Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall constraints, when imposed dynamically, lead to similar optimal portfolios and wealth distributions. We also show that, in utility terms, the costs

  20. Long-term data storage in diamond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhomkar, Siddharth; Henshaw, Jacob; Jayakumar, Harishankar; Meriles, Carlos A.

    2016-01-01

    The negatively charged nitrogen vacancy (NV−) center in diamond is the focus of widespread attention for applications ranging from quantum information processing to nanoscale metrology. Although most work so far has focused on the NV− optical and spin properties, control of the charge state promises complementary opportunities. One intriguing possibility is the long-term storage of information, a notion we hereby introduce using NV-rich, type 1b diamond. As a proof of principle, we use multicolor optical microscopy to read, write, and reset arbitrary data sets with two-dimensional (2D) binary bit density comparable to present digital-video-disk (DVD) technology. Leveraging on the singular dynamics of NV− ionization, we encode information on different planes of the diamond crystal with no cross-talk, hence extending the storage capacity to three dimensions. Furthermore, we correlate the center’s charge state and the nuclear spin polarization of the nitrogen host and show that the latter is robust to a cycle of NV− ionization and recharge. In combination with super-resolution microscopy techniques, these observations provide a route toward subdiffraction NV charge control, a regime where the storage capacity could exceed present technologies. PMID:27819045

  1. Long-term data storage in diamond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhomkar, Siddharth; Henshaw, Jacob; Jayakumar, Harishankar; Meriles, Carlos A

    2016-10-01

    The negatively charged nitrogen vacancy (NV - ) center in diamond is the focus of widespread attention for applications ranging from quantum information processing to nanoscale metrology. Although most work so far has focused on the NV - optical and spin properties, control of the charge state promises complementary opportunities. One intriguing possibility is the long-term storage of information, a notion we hereby introduce using NV-rich, type 1b diamond. As a proof of principle, we use multicolor optical microscopy to read, write, and reset arbitrary data sets with two-dimensional (2D) binary bit density comparable to present digital-video-disk (DVD) technology. Leveraging on the singular dynamics of NV - ionization, we encode information on different planes of the diamond crystal with no cross-talk, hence extending the storage capacity to three dimensions. Furthermore, we correlate the center's charge state and the nuclear spin polarization of the nitrogen host and show that the latter is robust to a cycle of NV - ionization and recharge. In combination with super-resolution microscopy techniques, these observations provide a route toward subdiffraction NV charge control, a regime where the storage capacity could exceed present technologies.

  2. Multiple coupled landscapes and non-adiabatic dynamics with applications to self-activating genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cong; Zhang, Kun; Feng, Haidong; Sasai, Masaki; Wang, Jin

    2015-11-21

    Many physical, chemical and biochemical systems (e.g. electronic dynamics and gene regulatory networks) are governed by continuous stochastic processes (e.g. electron dynamics on a particular electronic energy surface and protein (gene product) synthesis) coupled with discrete processes (e.g. hopping among different electronic energy surfaces and on and off switching of genes). One can also think of the underlying dynamics as the continuous motion on a particular landscape and discrete hoppings among different landscapes. The main difference of such systems from the intra-landscape dynamics alone is the emergence of the timescale involved in transitions among different landscapes in addition to the timescale involved in a particular landscape. The adiabatic limit when inter-landscape hoppings are fast compared to continuous intra-landscape dynamics has been studied both analytically and numerically, but the analytical treatment of the non-adiabatic regime where the inter-landscape hoppings are slow or comparable to continuous intra-landscape dynamics remains challenging. In this study, we show that there exists mathematical mapping of the dynamics on 2(N) discretely coupled N continuous dimensional landscapes onto one single landscape in 2N dimensional extended continuous space. On this 2N dimensional landscape, eddy current emerges as a sign of non-equilibrium non-adiabatic dynamics and plays an important role in system evolution. Many interesting physical effects such as the enhancement of fluctuations, irreversibility, dissipation and optimal kinetics emerge due to non-adiabaticity manifested by the eddy current illustrated for an N = 1 self-activator. We further generalize our theory to the N-gene network with multiple binding sites and multiple synthesis rates for discretely coupled non-equilibrium stochastic physical and biological systems.

  3. Long-Term Fire Regime Estimated from Soil Charcoal in Coastal Temperate Rainforests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Lertzman

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Coastal temperate rainforests from southeast Alaska through to southern Oregon are ecologically distinct from forests of neighboring regions, which have a drier, or more continental, climate and disturbance regimes dominated by fires. The long-term role of fire remains one of the key outstanding sources of uncertainty in the historical dynamics of the wetter and less seasonal forests that dominate the northerly two thirds of the rainforest region in British Columbia and Alaska. Here, we describe the long-term fire regime in two forests on the south coast of British Columbia by means of 244 AMS radiocarbon dates of charcoal buried in forest soils. In both forests, some sites have experienced no fire over the last 6000 years and many other sites have experienced only one or two fires during that time. Intervals between fires vary from a few centuries to several thousand years. In contrast to other conifer forests, this supports a model of forest dynamics where fires are of minor ecological importance. Instead, forest history is dominated by fine-scale processes of disturbance and recovery that maintain an ubiquitous late-successional character over the forest landscape. This has significant implications for ecosystem-based forest management and our understanding of carbon storage in forest soils.

  4. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Achdou , Yves; Giraud , Pierre-Noel; Lasry , Jean-Michel; Lions , Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    International audience; A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is descr...

  5. Long term wet spent nuclear fuel storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    The meeting showed that there is continuing confidence in the use of wet storage for spent nuclear fuel and that long-term wet storage of fuel clad in zirconium alloys can be readily achieved. The importance of maintaining good water chemistry has been identified. The long-term wet storage behaviour of sensitized stainless steel clad fuel involves, as yet, some uncertainties. However, great reliance will be placed on long-term wet storage of spent fuel into the future. The following topics were treated to some extent: Oxidation of the external surface of fuel clad, rod consolidation, radiation protection, optimum methods of treating spent fuel storage water, physical radiation effects, and the behaviour of spent fuel assemblies of long-term wet storage conditions. A number of papers on national experience are included

  6. Industrial Foundations as Long-Term Owners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Steen; Poulsen, Thomas; Børsting, Christa Winther

    Short-termism has become a serious concern for corporate governance, and this has inspired a search for institutional arrangements to promote long-term decision-making. In this paper, we call attention to long-term ownership by industrial foundations, which is common in Northern Europe but little...... known in the rest of the world. We use a unique Danish data set to document that industrial foundations are long-term owners that practice long-term governance. We show that foundation ownership is highly stable compared to other ownership structures. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less...... frequently. They have conservative capital structures with low financial leverage. They score higher on an index of long-termism in finance, investment, and employment. They survive longer. Overall, our paper supports the hypothesis that corporate time horizons are influenced by ownership structures...

  7. Coping with PH over the Long Term

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a job, a volunteer commitment, or even a hobby can take a toll on long-term survivors ... people find solace in meditation, faith, humor, writing, hobbies and more. Find an outlet that you enjoy ...

  8. Long term effects of radiation in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tso Chih Ping; Idris Besar

    1984-01-01

    An overview of the long term effects of radiation in man is presented, categorizing into somatic effects, genetic effects and teratogenic effects, and including an indication of the problems that arise in their determination. (author)

  9. Long term liquidity analysis of the firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Gonos

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity control is a very difficult and important function. If the business is not liquid in the long term, it is under threatof bankruptcy, and on the other hand surplus of the cash in hand threaten its future efficiency, because the cash in hand is a sourceof only limited profitability. Long term liquidity is related to the ability of the short term and long term liabilities payment. Articleis trying to point out to the monitoring and analyzing of the long term liquidity in the concrete business, in this case the printing industrycompany. Hereby at the end of the article mentioned monitored and analyzed liquidity is evaluated in the five years time period.

  10. Long Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Long-Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS) is a standardized, primary screening and assessment tool of health status that forms the foundation of the comprehensive...

  11. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

    2013-01-01

    An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

  12. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted imag...

  13. The landscape of nonlinear structural dynamics: an introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butlin, T; Woodhouse, J; Champneys, A R

    2015-09-28

    Nonlinear behaviour is ever-present in vibrations and other dynamical motions of engineering structures. Manifestations of nonlinearity include amplitude-dependent natural frequencies, buzz, squeak and rattle, self-excited oscillation and non-repeatability. This article primarily serves as an extended introduction to a theme issue in which such nonlinear phenomena are highlighted through diverse case studies. More ambitiously though, there is another goal. Both the engineering context and the mathematical techniques that can be used to identify, analyse, control or exploit these phenomena in practice are placed in the context of a mind-map, which has been created through expert elicitation. This map, which is available in software through the electronic supplementary material, attempts to provide a practitioner's guide to what hitherto might seem like a vast and complex research landscape. © 2015 The Authors.

  14. Time series evaluation of landscape dynamics using annual Landsat imagery and spatial statistical modeling: Evidence from the Phoenix metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Rey, Sergio J.; Li, Wenwen

    2017-06-01

    Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth's land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective.

  15. Algorithm for dealing with depressions in dynamic landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2006-01-01

    Depressions in landscapes function as buffers for water and sediment. A landscape with depressions has less runoff, less erosion and more sedimentation than a landscape without depressions. Sinks in digital elevation models (DEMs) can be existing features that correctly represent depressions in

  16. Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

    2017-06-01

    Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n  = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n  = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n  = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n  = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n  = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after

  17. Integrating Dendrochronology, Climate and Satellite Remote Sensing to Better Understand Savanna Landscape Dynamics in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Southworth

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the integration and potential uses of linkages between climate dynamics, savanna vegetation and landscape level processes within a highly vulnerable region, both in terms of climate variability and social systems. We explore the combined applications of two time-series methodologies: (1 climate signals detected in tree ring growth, from published literature, chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, and minimal preliminary field data; and (2 new primary production (NPP data of vegetation cover over time derived from remotely sensed analyses. Both time-series are related to the regional patterns of precipitation, the principle driver of plant growth in the area. The approach is temporally and spatially multiscalar and examines the relationships between vegetation cover, type and amount, and precipitation shifts. We review literature linking dendrochronology, climate, and remotely sensed imagery, and, in addition, provide unique preliminary analyses from a dry study site located on the outer limit of the Okavango Delta. The work demonstrates integration across the different data sources, to provide a more holistic view of landscape level processes occurring in the last 30-50 years. These results corroborate the water-limited nature of the region and the dominance of precipitation in controlling vegetation growth. We present this integrative analysis of vegetation and climate change, as a prospective approach to facilitate the development of long-term climate/vegetation change records across multiple scales.

  18. Long-term prisoner in prison isolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina Grudzińska

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-term prisoner belongs to a particular category of people who are imprisoned in prisons. On the one hand in this group are often heavily demoralized people who committed the most serious crimes, on the other hand it is a group of prisoners, who should be well thought out and programmed the impact of rehabilitation. The situation of man trapped for years poses in a complicated situation not only the prisoners, but also the entire prison staff. They have to take care of the fact that the prison isolation did not cause the state in which convicts form itself in learned helplessness and lack of skills for self-planning and decision-making. In addition, planning the rehabilitation impact of long-term prisoners should not be forgotten that these prisoners in the short or the long term will return to the libertarian environment therefore, should prevent any negative effects of long-term imprisonment. This article presents the main issues related to the execution of imprisonment against long-term prisoners. It is an attempt to systematize the knowledge of this category of people living in prison isolation.

  19. Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

    2018-12-01

    An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

  20. Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeon Jin Park

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

  1. Sinks without borders: Snowshoe hare dynamics in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Paul C.; Mills, L. Scott

    2009-01-01

    A full understanding of population dynamics of wide-ranging animals should account for the effects that movement and habitat use have on individual contributions to population growth or decline. Quantifying the per-capita, habitat-specific contribution to population growth can clarify the value of different patch types, and help to differentiate population sources from population sinks. Snowshoe hares, Lepus americanus, routinely use various habitat types in the landscapes they inhabit in the contiguous US, where managing forests for high snowshoe hare density is a priority for conservation of Canada lynx, Lynx canadensis. We estimated density and demographic rates via mark–recapture live trapping and radio-telemetry within four forest stand structure (FSS) types at three study areas within heterogeneous managed forests in western Montana. We found support for known fate survival models with time-varying individual covariates representing the proportion of locations in each of the FSS types, with survival rates decreasing as use of open young and open mature FSS types increased. The per-capita contribution to overall population growth increased with use of the dense mature or dense young FSS types and decreased with use of the open young or open mature FSS types, and relatively high levels of immigration appear to be necessary to sustain hares in the open FSS types. Our results support a conceptual model for snowshoe hares in the southern range in which sink habitats (open areas) prevent the buildup of high hare densities. More broadly, we use this system to develop a novel approach to quantify demographic sources and sinks for animals making routine movements through complex fragmented landscapes.

  2. The dynamic landscape of gene regulation during Bombyx mori oogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Sun, Wei; Sun, Bang-Yong; Xiao, Yang; Zhang, Ze

    2017-09-11

    Oogenesis in the domestic silkworm (Bombyx mori) is a complex process involving previtellogenesis, vitellogenesis and choriogenesis. During this process, follicles show drastic morphological and physiological changes. However, the genome-wide regulatory profiles of gene expression during oogenesis remain to be determined. In this study, we obtained time-series transcriptome data and used these data to reveal the dynamic landscape of gene regulation during oogenesis. A total of 1932 genes were identified to be differentially expressed among different stages, most of which occurred during the transition from late vitellogenesis to early choriogenesis. Using weighted gene co-expression network analysis, we identified six stage-specific gene modules that correspond to multiple regulatory pathways. Strikingly, the biosynthesis pathway of the molting hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) was enriched in one of the modules. Further analysis showed that the ecdysteroid 20-hydroxylase gene (CYP314A1) of steroidgenesis genes was mainly expressed in previtellogenesis and early vitellogenesis. However, the 20E-inactivated genes, particularly the ecdysteroid 26-hydroxylase encoding gene (Cyp18a1), were highly expressed in late vitellogenesis. These distinct expression patterns between 20E synthesis and catabolism-related genes might ensure the rapid decline of the hormone titer at the transition point from vitellogenesis to choriogenesis. In addition, we compared landscapes of gene regulation between silkworm (Lepidoptera) and fruit fly (Diptera) oogeneses. Our results show that there is some consensus in the modules of gene co-expression during oogenesis in these insects. The data presented in this study provide new insights into the regulatory mechanisms underlying oogenesis in insects with polytrophic meroistic ovaries. The results also provide clues for further investigating the roles of epigenetic reconfiguration and circadian rhythm in insect oogenesis.

  3. Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

    2018-01-01

    , exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

  4. Long-term dependence in exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karytinos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

  5. Ark and Archive: Making a Place for Long-Term Research on Barro Colorado Island, Panama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raby, Megan

    2015-12-01

    Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, may be the most studied tropical forest in the world. A 1,560-hectare island created by the flooding of the Panama Canal, BCI became a nature reserve and biological research station in 1923. Contemporaries saw the island as an "ark" preserving a sample of primeval tropical nature for scientific study. BCI was not simply "set aside," however. The project of making it a place for science significantly reshaped the island through the twentieth century. This essay demonstrates that BCI was constructed specifically to allow long-term observation of tropical organisms--their complex behaviors, life histories, population dynamics, and changing species composition. An evolving system of monitoring and information technology transformed the island into a living scientific "archive," in which the landscape became both an object and a repository of scientific knowledge. As a research site, BCI enabled a long-term, place-based form of collective empiricism, focused on the study of the ecology of a single tropical island. This essay articulates tropical ecology as a "science of the archive" in order to examine the origins of practices of environmental surveillance that have become central to debates about global change and conservation.

  6. Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of seagrass landscapes using time-series remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Mitchell B.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

    2013-03-01

    The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (≈200 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and

  7. Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large

  8. Long term planning for wind energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trinick, M.

    1995-01-01

    In a planning system intended to be governed primarily by policies in statutory plans a reasonable horizon for long term planning is 10 years or longer. Because of statutory requirements, developers have no option but to pay due regard to, and take a full part in, long term planning. The paper examines the type of policies which have emerged in the last few years to cater for wind energy development. It canvasses the merits of different types of policies. Finally, it discusses the policy framework which may emerge to cater for development outside NFFO. (Author)

  9. Long-term characteristics of nuclear emulsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naganawa, N; Kuwabara, K

    2010-01-01

    Long-term characteristics of the nuclear emulsion so called 'OPERA film' used in the neutrino oscillation experiment, OPERA, has been studied for 8 years since its production or refreshing after it. In the results, it turned out to be excellent in sensitivity, amount of random noise, and refreshing characteristics. The retention capacity of latent image of tracks was also studied. The result will open the way to the recycling of 7,000,000 emulsion films which will remain not developed after 5 years of OPERA's run, and other long-term experiments with emulsion.

  10. Long-term characteristics of nuclear emulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naganawa, N.; Kuwabara, K.

    2010-02-01

    Long-term characteristics of the nuclear emulsion so called ``OPERA film'' used in the neutrino oscillation experiment, OPERA, has been studied for 8 years since its production or refreshing after it. In the results, it turned out to be excellent in sensitivity, amount of random noise, and refreshing characteristics. The retention capacity of latent image of tracks was also studied. The result will open the way to the recycling of 7,000,000 emulsion films which will remain not developed after 5 years of OPERA's run, and other long-term experiments with emulsion.

  11. Long-term home care scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette; Jensen, Thomas Sejr

    In several countries, home care is provided for certain citizens living at home. The long-term home care scheduling problem is to generate work plans spanning several days such that a high quality of service is maintained and the overall cost is kept as low as possible. A solution to the problem...... provides detailed information on visits and visit times for each employee on each of the covered days. We propose a branch-and-price algorithm for the long-term home care scheduling problem. The pricing problem generates one-day plans for an employee, and the master problem merges the plans with respect...

  12. Long term storage techniques for 85Kr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, B.A.; Pence, D.T.; Staples, B.A.

    1975-01-01

    As new nuclear fuel reprocessing plants go on stream, the collection of fission product 85 Kr will be required to avoid potential local release problems and long-term atmospheric buildup. Storage of the collected 85 Kr for a period of at least 100 years will be necessary to allow approximately 99.9 percent decay before it is released. A program designed to develop and evaluate proposed methods for long-term storage of 85 Kr is discussed, and the results of a preliminary evaluation of three methods, high pressure steel cylinders, zeolite encapsulation, and clathrate inclusion are presented. (U.S.)

  13. Long term estimates for sorting strategies of the LHC dipoles

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter; Giovannozzi, Massimo; Todesco, Ezio

    1998-01-01

    Sorting strategies are investigated in view of improving the dynamic aperture of the CERN-LHC. Local and quasi-local compensation of the random field shape imperfections are discussed and applied to simplified model of the LHC lattice. The most promising strategies are further investigated on a realistic LHC model with particular emphasis on the analysis of the robustness of the dynamic aperture improvements including long term effects. First results on the application of the recently developed extrapolation law for the prediction of the dynamic aperture to the sorting problem are presented.

  14. Long-Term Fundamentals of the 2008 Economic Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    David Mayer-Foulkes

    2009-01-01

    The current economic crisis has long-term causes that are rooted in the economic dynamics of globalization. I construct a Solow-style endogenous model of capital accumulation, technological change, trade and cheap-factor-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI), based on myopic agents. Combining advanced technologies with low costs, FDI yields extraordinary profits that generate asymmetric innovation incentives that explain the following stylized facts. Globalization (a) increases capital accu...

  15. Advanced nonlinear theory: Long-term stability at the SSC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heifets, S.

    1987-01-01

    This paper discussed the long-term stability of the particle beams in the Superconducting Super Collider. In particular the dynamics of a single particle beam is considered in depth. The topics of this paper include: the Hamiltonian of this particle approach, perturbation theory, canonical transformations, interaction of the resonances, structure of the phase space, synchro-Betatron oscillations, modulation diffusion and noise-resonance interaction. 36 refs

  16. Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Noriaki Kinoshita

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of governme...

  17. Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

    OpenAIRE

    Laura Alfaro; Fabio Kanczuk

    2007-01-01

    We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve fo...

  18. Long-Term Orientation in Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, G.J.; Jonker, C.M.; Verwaart, D.

    2008-01-01

    Trust does not work in the same way across cultures. This paper presents an agent model of behavior in trade across Hofstedes cultural dimension of long-term vs. short-term orientation. The situation is based on a gaming simulation, the Trust and Tracing game. The paper investigates the

  19. Safety of long-term PPI therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimer, Christina

    2013-01-01

    Proton pump inhibitors have become the mainstay of medical treatment of acid-related disorders. Long-term use is becoming increasingly common, in some cases without a proper indication. A large number of mainly observational studies on a very wide range of possible associations have been publishe...... to a careful evaluation of the indication for PPI treatment....

  20. Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kinsey, B.H.; Hoddinott, J; Alderman, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of pre-school malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects - instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought shocks are used to identify

  1. Financial Incentives in Long-Term Care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.L.H. Bakx (Pieter)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Long-term care (ltc) aims to help individuals to cope with their impairments. In my thesis, I describe ltc financing alternatives and their consequences for the allocation of ltc. This thesis consists of two parts. In the first part, I investigate how alternative ways

  2. Long-term outcomes of patellofemoral arthroplasty.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonbergen, J.P.W. van; Werkman, D.M.; Barnaart, L.F.; Kampen, A. van

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to correlate the long-term survival of patellofemoral arthroplasty with primary diagnosis, age, sex, and body mass index. One hundred eighty-five consecutive Richards type II patellofemoral arthroplasties were performed in 161 patients with isolated patellofemoral

  3. Long-Term Memory and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossland, John

    2011-01-01

    The English National Curriculum Programmes of Study emphasise the importance of knowledge, understanding and skills, and teachers are well versed in structuring learning in those terms. Research outcomes into how long-term memory is stored and retrieved provide support for structuring learning in this way. Four further messages are added to the…

  4. The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    number of years, leading to substantial additional federal spending. For example, the nation could experience a massive earthquake, a nuclear meltdown...budget surpluses remaining after paying down publicly held debt available for redemption . a. For comparison with the current long-term projections, CBO

  5. Long-term effects of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Alexander; Burkart, Werner; Grosche, Bernd; Jung, Thomas; Martignoni, Klaus; Stephan, Guenther

    1997-01-01

    This paper approaches the long-term effects of ionizing radiation considering the common thought that killing of cells is the basis for deterministic effects and that the subtle changes in genetic information are important in the development of radiation-induced cancer, or genetic effects if these changes are induced in germ cells

  6. Pituitary diseases : long-term psychological consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiemensma, Jitske

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, pituitary adenomas can be appropriately treated, but patients continue to report impaired quality of life (QoL) despite long-term remission or cure. In patients with Cushing’s disease, Cushing’s syndrome or acromegaly, doctors should be aware of subtle cognitive impairments and the

  7. The long term stability of lidar calibrations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courtney, Michael; Gayle Nygaard, Nicolai

    Wind lidars are now used extensively for wind resource measurements. One of the requirements for the data to be accepted in support of project financing (so-called ‘banka-bility’) is to demonstrate the long-term stability of lidar cali-brations. Calibration results for six Leosphere WindCube li...

  8. Rebalancing for Long-Term Investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, Joost; Kuiper, Ivo

    2017-01-01

    In this study we show that the rebalance frequency of a multi-asset portfolio has only limited impact on the utility of a long-term passive investor. Although continuous rebalancing is optimal, the loss of a suboptimal strategy corresponds to up to only 30 basis points of the initial wealth of the

  9. Observed long-term greening of alpine vegetation—a case study in the French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Bradley Z.; Corona, Monica C.; Dentant, Cédric; Bonet, Richard; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe

    2017-11-01

    We combined imagery from multiple sources (MODIS, Landsat-5, 7, 8) with land cover data to test for long-term (1984-2015) greening or browning trends of vegetation in a temperate alpine area, the Ecrins National Park, in the context of recent climate change and domestic grazing practices. We showed that over half (56%) of the Ecrins National Park displayed significant increases in peak normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) over the last 16 years (2000-2015). Importantly, the highest proportional increases in NDVImax occurred in rocky habitats at high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.). While spatial agreement in the direction of change in NDVImax as detected by MODIS and Landsat was high (76% overlap), correlations between log-response ratio values were of moderate strength (approx. 0.3). In the context of above treeline habitats, we found that proportional increases in NDVImax were higher between 1984 and 2000 than between 2000 and 2015, suggesting a slowing of greening dynamics during the recent decade. The timing of accelerated greening prior to 2000 coincided with a pronounced increase in the amount of snow-free growing degree-days that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. In the case of grasslands and low-shrub habitats, we did not find evidence for a negative effect of grazing on greening trends, possibly due to the low grazing intensity typically found in the study area. We propose that the emergence of a longer and warmer growing season enabled high-elevation plant communities to produce more biomass, and also allowed for plant colonization of habitats previously characterized by long-lasting snow cover. Increasing plant productivity in an alpine context has potential implications for biodiversity trajectories and for ecosystem services in mountain landscapes. The presented evidence for long-term greening trends in a representative region of the European Alps provides the basis for further research on mechanisms of greening in alpine landscapes.

  10. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  11. Abrupt vegetation transitions characterise long-term Amazonian peatland development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roucoux, K. H.; Baker, T. R.; Gosling, W. D.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Jones, T. D.; Lahteenoja, O.; Lawson, I. T.

    2012-04-01

    Recent investigations of wetlands in western Amazonia have revealed the presence of extensive peatlands with peat deposits of up to 8 m-thick developing under a variety of vegetation types (Lähteenoja et al. 2012). Estimated to cover 150,000 km2 (Schulman et al. 1999), these peatlands make a valuable contribution to landscape and biological diversity and represent globally important carbon stores. In order to understand the processes leading to peat formation, and the sensitivity of these environments to future climatic change, it is necessary to understand their long-term history. The extent to which peatland vegetation changes over time, the stability of particular communities, the controls on transitions between vegetation types and how these factors relate to the accumulation of organic matter are not yet known. We report the first attempt to establish the long-term (millennial scale) vegetation history of a recently-described peatland site: Quistococha, a palm swamp, or aguajal, close to Iquitos in northern Peru. The vegetation is dominated by Mauritia flexuosa and Mauritiella armata and occupies a basin which is thought to be an abandoned channel of the River Amazon. We obtained a 4 m-long peat sequence from the deepest part of the basin. AMS-radiocarbon dating yielded a maximum age of 2,212 cal yr BP for the base of the peat, giving an average accumulation rate of 18 cm per century. Below the peat are 2 m of uniform, largely inorganic pale grey clays of lacustrine origin, which are underlain by an unknown thickness of inorganic sandy-silty clay of fluvial origin. Pollen analysis, carried out at c. 88-year intervals, shows the last 2,212 years to be characterised by the development of at least four distinct vegetation communities, with peat accumulating throughout. The main phases were: (1) Formation of Cyperaceae (sedge) fen coincident with peat initiation; (2) A short-lived phase of local Mauritia/Mauritiella development; (3) Development of mixed wet

  12. Diel predator activity drives a dynamic landscape of fear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Michel T.; Stahler, Daniel R.; Metz, Matthew C.; Forester, James D.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Varley, Nathan; White, P.J.; Smith, Douglas W.; MacNulty, Daniel R.

    2017-01-01

    A "landscape of fear" (LOF) is a map that describes continuous spatial variation in an animal's perception of predation risk. The relief on this map reflects, for example, places that an animal avoids to minimize risk. Although the LOF concept is a potential unifying theme in ecology that is often invoked to explain the ecological and conservation significance of fear, quantified examples of a LOF over large spatial scales are lacking as is knowledge about the daily dynamics of a LOF. Despite theory and data to the contrary, investigators often assume, implicitly or explicitly, that a LOF is a static consequence of a predator's mere presence. We tested the prediction that a LOF in a large-scale, free-living system is a highly-dynamic map with "peaks" and "valleys" that alternate across the diel (24-hour) cycle in response to daily lulls in predator activity. We did so with extensive data from the case study of Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) and wolves (Canis lupus) that was the original basis for the LOF concept. We quantified the elk LOF, defined here as spatial allocation of time away from risky places and times, across nearly 1000-km2 of northern Yellowstone National Park and found that it fluctuated with the crepuscular activity pattern of wolves, enabling elk to use risky places during wolf downtimes. This may help explain evidence that wolf predation risk has no effect on elk stress levels, body condition, pregnancy, or herbivory. The ability of free-living animals to adaptively allocate habitat use across periods of high and low predator activity within the diel cycle is an underappreciated aspect of animal behavior that helps explain why strong antipredator responses may trigger weak ecological effects, and why a LOF may have less conceptual and practical importance than direct killing.

  13. Sensor System for Long-term Recording of Photovoltaic (PV) IV-curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paasch, Kasper; Nymand, Morten; Haase, Frerk

    The purpose of this paper is to present a recording system for long-term investigation of PV panel dynamics under partial shading conditions. The system is intended to be a low-cost system deployable for stand-alone field use and long-term data recording at PV-plants. Passing clouds will affect...

  14. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. [Landscape pattern gradient dynamics and desakota features in rapid urbanization area: a case study in Panyu of Guangzhou].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Long-Sheng; Fu, Yi-Fu; Yu, Huai-Yi; Li, Zhi-Qin

    2011-01-01

    In order to understand the landscape pattern gradient dynamics and desakota features in rapid urbanization area, this paper took the rapidly urbanizing Panyu District of Guangzhou City as a case, and analyzed its land use and land cover data, based on four Landsat TM images from 1990 to 2008. With the combination of gradient analysis and landscape pattern analysis, and by using the landscape indices in both class and landscape scales, the spatial dynamics and desakota feature of this rapidly urbanizing district were quantified. In the study district, there was a significant change in the landscape pattern, and a typical desakota feature presented along buffer gradient zones. Urban landscape increased and expanded annually, accompanied with serious fragmentation of agricultural landscape. The indices patch density, contagion, and landscape diversity, etc., changed regularly in the urbanization gradient, and the peak of landscape indices appeared in the gradient zone of 4-6 km away from the urban center. The landscape patterns at time series also reflected the differences among the dynamics in different gradient zones. The landscape pattern in desakota region was characterized by complex patch shape, high landscape diversity and fragmentation, and remarkable landscape dynamics. The peaks of landscape indices spread from the urban center to border areas, and desakota region was expanding gradually. The general trend of spatiotemporal dynamics in desakota region and its driving forces were discussed, which could be benefit to the regional land use policy-making and sustainable development planning.

  16. [Dynamic changes of landscape pattern and hemeroby in Ximen Island wetland, Zhejiang Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Cui; Xie, Xue-Fen; Wu, Tao; Jiang, Guo-Jun; Bian, Hua-Jing; Xu, Wei

    2014-11-01

    Abstract: The hemeroby type classification system of Ximen Island wetland of Zhejiang Province was established based on the multiple datasets: SOPT-5 image data with a spatial resolution of 5 m in 2007 and 2010, its wetland land cover and land use status, the National Land Use Classification (on trail), and sea area use classification of marine industry standards as well as remote sensing data features. Meanwhile, the dynamic relationship between the landscape pattern and the degree of hemeroby in Ximen Island was investigated with the landscape indices and hemeroby index (HI) derived from the landscape pattern index and GIS spatial analysis. The results showed that the wetland landscape spatial heterogeneity, fragmentation and dominance index dropped, and the landscape shape index complexity was low. The human disturbance center developed from a dispersion type to a concentration type. The landscape type of the disturbance center was bare land and settlement. The HI rose up from the sea to the land. Settlement, wharf and traffic land had the highest HI. The HI of the mudflat cultivation, mudflats and raft-cultivation dramatically changed. Marine-terrestrial interlaced zone showed a low total HI with unstable characteristics. The number of patches declined of undisturbed, partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes. Mean patch areas of partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes increased, and that of the undisturbed decreased. Mean shape index of the undisturbed landscape decreased, while the partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes showed a trend of shape complication.

  17. Long-term selenium status in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, C.K.; Spate, V.L.; Mason, M.M.; Nichols, T.A.; Williams, A.; Dubman, I.M.; Gudino, A.; Denison, J.; Morris, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    The association of sub-optimal selenium status with increased risk factors for some cancers has been reported in two recent epidemiological studies. In both studies the same threshold in selenium status was observed, below which, cancer incidence increased. To assess the use of nails as a biologic monitor to measure the long-term selenium status, an eight-year longitudinal study was undertaken with a group of 11 adult subjects, 5 women and 6 men. Selenium has been measured by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Differences between fingernails and toenails with be discussed. In addition, the results will be discussed in the context of the long-term stability of the nail monitor to measure selenium status during those periods when selenium determinants are static; and the changes that occur as a result of selenium supplementation. (author)

  18. Influenza in long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansbury, Louise E; Brown, Caroline S; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S

    2017-09-01

    Long-term care facility environments and the vulnerability of their residents provide a setting conducive to the rapid spread of influenza virus and other respiratory pathogens. Infections may be introduced by staff, visitors or new or transferred residents, and outbreaks of influenza in such settings can have devastating consequences for individuals, as well as placing extra strain on health services. As the population ages over the coming decades, increased provision of such facilities seems likely. The need for robust infection prevention and control practices will therefore remain of paramount importance if the impact of outbreaks is to be minimised. In this review, we discuss the nature of the problem of influenza in long-term care facilities, and approaches to preventive and control measures, including vaccination of residents and staff, and the use of antiviral drugs for treatment and prophylaxis, based on currently available evidence. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Long-Term Ownership by Industrial Foundations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Børsting, Christa Winther; Kuhn, Johan Moritz; Poulsen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    in Denmark. Industrial foundations are independent legal entities without owners or members typically with the dual objective of preserving the company and using excess profits for charity. We use a unique Danish data set to examine the governance of foundation-owned companies. We show that they are long......-term in several respects. Foundations hold on to their shares for longer. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less frequently. They have more conservative capital structures with less leverage. Their companies survive longer. Their business decisions appear to be more long term. This paper supports...... the hypothesis that time horizons are influenced by ownership structures and particularly that industrial foundations promote longtermism. Policymakers which are interested in promoting longtermism should allow and perhaps even encourage the creation of industrial foundations. More generally they should consider...

  20. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  1. Long-term effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, J.; Smith, T.

    1981-01-01

    It is pointed out that sources of long-term damage from radiation are two-fold. People who have been exposed to doses of radiation from initial early fallout but have recovered from the acute effects may still suffer long-term damage from their exposure. Those who have not been exposed to early fallout may be exposed to delayed fallout, the hazards from which are almost exclusively from ingesting strontium, caesium and carbon isotopes present in food; the damage caused is relatively unimportant compared with that caused by the brief doses from initial radiation and early fallout. A brief discussion is presented of the distribution of delayed long-lived isotope fallout, and an outline is sketched of late biological effects, such as malignant disease, cataracts, retarded development, infertility and genetic effects. (U.K.)

  2. Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Zachary H.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Wilson, Juliette T.

    2013-01-01

    The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions

  3. Long term economic relationships from cointegration maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicente, Renato; Pereira, Carlos de B.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

    2007-07-01

    We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the sorting points into neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to analyze large data sets from DNA arrays. We exemplify the technique in three data sets: US interest rates (USIR), monthly inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates.

  4. Murine model of long term obstructive jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A.; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-01-01

    Background With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of 3 murine models of obstructive jaundice. Methods C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Results 70% (7/10) of tCL mice died by Day 7, whereas majority 67% (10/15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. 19% (3/16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond Day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 days after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by Day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension as well as severe fibrosis by Day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. Conclusion The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice but long term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. PMID:27916350

  5. Long-term course of opioid addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

  6. Long-term economic outlook. Annual review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-01-01

    This review provides economic growth forecast tables for Ontario, Canada, the US, Western Europe, and Japan. Economic growth, government policy, the long-term prospects for inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, trends in the Canadian dollar, and energy markets and prices are also reviewed. Data generally cover 1965-2025. Appendices give a summary of historical and forecast data. 18 figs., 16 tabs.

  7. Long-term data storage in diamond

    OpenAIRE

    Dhomkar, Siddharth; Henshaw, Jacob; Jayakumar, Harishankar; Meriles, Carlos A.

    2016-01-01

    The negatively charged nitrogen vacancy (NV?) center in diamond is the focus of widespread attention for applications ranging from quantum information processing to nanoscale metrology. Although most work so far has focused on the NV? optical and spin properties, control of the charge state promises complementary opportunities. One intriguing possibility is the long-term storage of information, a notion we hereby introduce using NV-rich, type 1b diamond. As a proof of principle, we use multic...

  8. French Approach for Long Term Storage Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, Jacob; Carreton, Jean-Pierre; Lizot, Marie Therese; Lhomme, Veronique

    2014-01-01

    IRSN presents its statement regarding long-term storage facilities; in France, the regulatory documents do not define the long term duration. The storage facility lifetime can only be appreciated according to the needs and materials stored therein. However, the magnitude of the long-term can be estimated at a few hundred years compared to a few decades for current storage. Usually, in France, construction of storage facilities is driven from the necessity various necessities, linked to the management of radioactive material (eg spent fuel) and to the management of radioactive waste. Because of the variety of 'stored materials and objects' (fission product solutions, plutonium oxide powders, activated solids, drums containing technological waste, spent fuel...), a great number of storage facility design solutions have been developed (surface, subsurface areas, dry or wet conditions...) in the World. After describing the main functions of a storage facility, IRSN displays the safety principles and the associated design principles. The specific design principles applied to particular storage (dry or wet spent fuel storage, depleted uranium or reprocessed uranium storage, plutonium storage, waste containing tritium storage, HLW and ILLW storage...) are also presented. Finally, the concerns due to the long-term duration storage and related safety assessment are developed. After discussing these issues, IRSN displays its statement. The authorization procedures governing the facility lifetime are similar to those of any basic nuclear installation, the continuation of the facility operation remaining subject to periodic safety reviews (in France, every 10 years). The applicant safety cases have to show, that the safety requirements are always met; this requires, at minimum, to take into account at the design stage, comfortable design margins. (author)

  9. Accounting of Long-Term Biological Assets

    OpenAIRE

    Valeriy Mossakovskyy; Vasyl Korytnyy

    2015-01-01

    The article is devoted to generalization of experience in valuation of long-term biological assets of plant-growing and animal-breeding, and preparation of suggestions concerning improvement of accounting in this field. Recommendations concerning accounting of such assets are given based on the study of accounting practice at specific agricultural company during long period of time. Authors believe that fair value is applicable only if price level for agricultural products is fixed by the gov...

  10. Timber joints under long-term loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feldborg, T.; Johansen, M.

    This report describes tests and results from stiffness and strength testing of splice joints under long-term loading. During two years of loading the spicimens were exposed to cyclically changing relative humidity. After the loading period the specimens were short-term tested. The connectors were...... integral nail-plates and nailed steel and plywood gussets. The report is intended for designers and researchers in timber engineering....

  11. Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors

    OpenAIRE

    Shaun K. Roache; Alexander P. Attie

    2009-01-01

    Long-term investors face a common problem-how to maintain the purchasing power of their assets over time and achieve a level of real returns consistent with their investment objectives. While inflation-linked bonds and derivatives have been developed to hedge the effects of inflation, their limited supply and liquidity lead many investors to continue to rely on the indirect hedging properties of traditional asset classes. In this paper, we assess these properties over different time horizons,...

  12. Long term evolution 4G and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Yacoub, Michel; Figueiredo, Fabrício; Tronco, Tania

    2016-01-01

    This book focus on Long Term Evolution (LTE) and beyond. The chapters describe different aspects of research and development in LTE, LTE-Advanced (4G systems) and LTE-450 MHz such as telecommunications regulatory framework, voice over LTE, link adaptation, power control, interference mitigation mechanisms, performance evaluation for different types of antennas, cognitive mesh network, integration of LTE network and satellite, test environment, power amplifiers and so on. It is useful for researchers in the field of mobile communications.

  13. Long-Term Care Services for Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-14

    includes but is not limited to home physical , occupational, or speech therapy ; wound care; and intravenous (IV) care. A VA physician determines that a...restoring/rehabilitating the veteran’s health, such as skilled nursing care, physical therapy , occupational therapy , and IV therapy Same as HBPC... geriatric evaluation,  palliative care,  adult day health care,  homemaker/home health aide care,  respite care, Long-Term Care Services for

  14. Long term adequacy of uranium resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steyn, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper examines the adequacy of world economic uranium resources to meet requirements in the very long term, that is until at least 2025 and beyond. It does so by analysing current requirements forecasts, existing and potential production centre supply capability schedules and national resource estimates. It takes into account lead times from resource discovery to production and production rate limitations. The institutional and political issues surrounding the question of adequacy are reviewed. (author)

  15. Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa: Application of extreme value theory and fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and their effects on mean values and long-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; Stübi, Rene; Weihs, Philipp; Holawe, Franz

    2010-05-01

    ón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances lead to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the presented new extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder ,H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part I: Application of extreme value theory, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part II: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes, to be submitted to ACPD. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of

  16. The relative importance of fertilization and soil erosion on C-dynamics in agricultural landscapes of NE Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Madlen; Hoffmann, Mathias; Hagemann, Ulrike; Jurisch, Nicole; Remus, Rainer; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    and interactions between soil and fertilization types also seem to affect C-dynamics. Hence, long-term measurements of different fertilization treatments at characteristic soil landscape elements are needed.

  17. Disturbance and topography shape nitrogen availability and δ15N over long-term forest succession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest disturbance and long-term succession can promote open N cycling that increases N loss and soil δ15N values. We examined soil and foliar patterns in N and δ15N, and soil N mineralization, across a topographically complex montane forest landscape influenced by human logging ...

  18. Long-term kinematics and sediment flux of an active earthflow, Eel River, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    B. H. Mackey; J. J. Roering; J. A. McKean

    2009-01-01

    Although earthflows are the dominant erosion mechanism in many mountainous landscapes, estimates of long-term earthflow-driven sediment flux remain elusive because landslide displacement data are typically limited to contemporary time periods. Combining high-resolution topography from airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging), total station surveying, orthorectified...

  19. Social Stairs : taking the Piano Staircase towards long-term behavioral change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.R.; Megens, C.J.P.G.; Hoven, van den E.A.W.H.; Hummels, C.C.M.; Brombacher, A.C.; Berkovsky, S.; Freyne, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the development of Social Stairs, an intelligent musical staircase to change people’s behavior in the long-term to take the stairs in favor of the elevator. Through designing with the Experiential Design Landscape (EDL) method, a design opportunity was found that social

  20. Confluence of arts, humanities, and science at sites of long-term ecological inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick J. Swanson

    2015-01-01

    Over the past century, ecology, the arts, and humanities diverged, but are now converging again, especially at sites of long-term, place-based ecological inquiry. This convergence has been inspired in part by the works of creative, boundary-spanning individuals and the long-standing examples of artshumanities programs in intriguing landscapes, such as artist and writer...

  1. Long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires in South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Morton, D. C.; Yin, Y. F.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.R.; DeFries, R. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Landscape fires in South America have considerable impacts on ecosystems, air quality and the climate system. We examined long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires for the continent during 2001-2012 using multiple satellite-derived fire

  2. Organic fields sustain weed metacommunity dynamics in farmland landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henckel, Laura; Börger, Luca; Meiss, Helmut; Gaba, Sabrina; Bretagnolle, Vincent

    2015-06-07

    Agro-ecosystems constitute essential habitat for many organisms. Agricultural intensification, however, has caused a strong decline of farmland biodiversity. Organic farming (OF) is often presented as a more biodiversity-friendly practice, but the generality of the beneficial effects of OF is debated as the effects appear often species- and context-dependent, and current research has highlighted the need to quantify the relative effects of local- and landscape-scale management on farmland biodiversity. Yet very few studies have investigated the landscape-level effects of OF; that is to say, how the biodiversity of a field is affected by the presence or density of organically farmed fields in the surrounding landscape. We addressed this issue using the metacommunity framework, with weed species richness in winter wheat within an intensively farmed landscape in France as model system. Controlling for the effects of local and landscape structure, we showed that OF leads to higher local weed diversity and that the presence of OF in the landscape is associated with higher local weed biodiversity also for conventionally farmed fields, and may reach a similar biodiversity level to organic fields in field margins. Based on these results, we derive indications for improving the sustainable management of farming systems. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubler, A.

    1999-01-01

    The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

  4. Landscape genetics highlights the role of bank vole metapopulation dynamics in the epidemiology of Puumala hantavirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guivier, E; Galan, M; Chaval, Y; Xuéreb, A; Ribas Salvador, A; Poulle, M-L; Voutilainen, L; Henttonen, H; Charbonnel, N; Cosson, J F

    2011-09-01

    Rodent host dynamics and dispersal are thought to be critical for hantavirus epidemiology as they determine pathogen persistence and transmission within and between host populations. We used landscape genetics to investigate how the population dynamics of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, the host of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), vary with forest fragmentation and influence PUUV epidemiology. We sampled vole populations within the Ardennes, a French PUUV endemic area. We inferred demographic features such as population size, isolation and migration with regard to landscape configuration. We next analysed the influence of M. glareolus population dynamics on PUUV spatial distribution. Our results revealed that the global metapopulation dynamics of bank voles were strongly shaped by landscape features, including suitable patch size and connectivity. Large effective size in forest might therefore contribute to the higher observed levels of PUUV prevalence. By contrast, populations from hedge networks highly suffered from genetic drift and appeared strongly isolated from all other populations. This might result in high probabilities of local extinction for both M. glareolus and PUUV. Besides, we detected signatures of asymmetric bank vole migration from forests to hedges. These movements were likely to sustain PUUV in fragmented landscapes. In conclusion, our study provided arguments in favour of source-sink dynamics shaping PUUV persistence and spread in heterogeneous, Western European temperate landscapes. It illustrated the potential contribution of landscape genetics to the understanding of the epidemiological processes occurring at this local scale. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Sexuality and Physical Intimacy in Long Term Care: Sexuality, long term care, capacity assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Lichtenberg, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Sexuality and sexual needs in older adults remains a neglected area of clinical intervention, particularly so in long term care settings. Because older adults in medical rehabilitation and long term care beds present with significant frailties, and often significant neurocognitive disorders it makes it difficult for occupational therapists and other staff to evaluate the capacity of an older adult resident to participate in sexual relationships. The current paper reviews the current literatur...

  6. The coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Z; Feldman, M W

    2013-05-01

    The evolution of social traits may not only depend on but also change the social structure of the population. In particular, the evolution of pairwise cooperation, such as biparental care, depends on the pair-matching distribution of the population, and the latter often emerges as a collective outcome of individual pair-bonding traits, which are also under selection. Here, we develop an analytical model and individual-based simulations to study the coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation in parental care, where partners play a Snowdrift game in each breeding season. We illustrate that long-term pair bonds may coevolve with cooperation when bonding cost is below a threshold. As long-term pair bonds lead to assortative interactions through pair-matching dynamics, they may promote the prevalence of cooperation. In addition to the pay-off matrix of a single game, the evolutionarily stable equilibrium also depends on bonding cost and accidental divorce rate, and it is determined by a form of balancing selection because the benefit from pair-bond maintenance diminishes as the frequency of cooperators increases. Our findings highlight the importance of ecological factors affecting social bonding cost and stability in understanding the coevolution of social behaviour and social structures, which may lead to the diversity of biological social systems. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  7. Dynamics of the flood response to slow-fast landscape-climate feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. P. Perdigão

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical evolution of the flood response to landscape-climate feedbacks is evaluated in a joint nonlinear statistical-dynamical approach. For that purpose, a spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is conducted on hydrological data from 1976–2008 over 804 catchments throughout Austria, and a general, data-independent nonlinear dynamical model is built linking floods with climate (via precipitation, landscape (via elevation and their feedbacks. These involve nonlinear scale interactions, with landform evolution processes taking place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics, and climate adjusting in years to decades (fast dynamics. The results show that floods are more responsive to spatial (regional than to temporal (decadal variability. Catchments from dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal sensitivities (spatiotemporal symmetry and low landscape-climate codependence, suggesting they are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those sensitivities (symmetry breaks and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is an emergent behaviour from nonlinear feedbacks within the system. A new coevolution index is introduced relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities, which need to be taken into account in hydrological space-time trading. Coevolution is expressed here by the interplay between slow and fast dynamics, represented respectively by spatial and temporal characteristics. The dynamical model captures emerging features of the flood dynamics and nonlinear landscape-climate feedbacks, supporting the nonlinear statistical assessment of spatiotemporally asymmetric flood change. Moreover, it enables the dynamical estimation of flood changes in space and time from the given knowledge at different spatiotemporal conditions. This study ultimately brings to light emerging signatures of

  8. LONG-TERM OUTCOME IN PEDIATRIC TRICHOTILLOMANIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumer, Maya C; Panza, Kaitlyn E; Mulqueen, Jilian M; Jakubovski, Ewgeni; Bloch, Michael H

    2015-10-01

    To examine long-term outcome in children with trichotillomania. We conducted follow-up clinical assessments an average of 2.8 ± 0.8 years after baseline evaluation in 30 of 39 children who previously participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) for pediatric trichotillomania. Our primary outcome was change in hairpulling severity on the Massachusetts General Hospital Hairpulling Hospital Hairpulling Scale (MGH-HPS) between the end of the acute phase and follow-up evaluation. We also obtained secondary measures examining styles of hairpulling, comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as continued treatment utilization. We examined both correlates and predictors of outcome (change in MGH-HPS score) using linear regression. None of the participants continued to take NAC at the time of follow-up assessment. No significant changes in hairpulling severity were reported over the follow-up period. Subjects reported significantly increased anxiety and depressive symptoms but improvement in automatic pulling symptoms. Increased hairpulling symptoms during the follow-up period were associated with increased depression and anxiety symptoms and increased focused pulling. Older age and greater focused pulling at baseline assessment were associated with poor long-term prognosis. Our findings suggest that few children with trichotillomania experience a significant improvement in trichotillomania symptoms if behavioral treatments are inaccessible or have failed to produce adequate symptom relief. Our findings also confirm results of previous cross-sectional studies that suggest an increased risk of depression and anxiety symptoms with age in pediatric trichotillomania. Increased focused pulling and older age among children with trichotillomania symptoms may be associated with poorer long-term prognosis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Long-term EEG in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montavont, A; Kaminska, A; Soufflet, C; Taussig, D

    2015-03-01

    Long-term video-EEG corresponds to a recording ranging from 1 to 24 h or even longer. It is indicated in the following situations: diagnosis of epileptic syndromes or unclassified epilepsy, pre-surgical evaluation for drug-resistant epilepsy, follow-up of epilepsy or in cases of paroxysmal symptoms whose etiology remains uncertain. There are some specificities related to paediatric care: a dedicated pediatric unit; continuous monitoring covering at least a full 24-hour period, especially in the context of pre-surgical evaluation; the requirement of presence by the parents, technician or nurse; and stronger attachment of electrodes (cup electrodes), the number of which is adapted to the age of the child. The chosen duration of the monitoring also depends on the frequency of seizures or paroxysmal events. The polygraphy must be adapted to the type and topography of movements. It is essential to have at least an electrocardiography (ECG) channel, respiratory sensor and electromyography (EMG) on both deltoids. There is no age limit for performing long-term video-EEG even in newborns and infants; nevertheless because of scalp fragility, strict surveillance of the baby's skin condition is required. In the specific context of pre-surgical evaluation, long-term video-EEG must record all types of seizures observed in the child. This monitoring is essential in order to develop hypotheses regarding the seizure onset zone, based on electroclinical correlations, which should be adapted to the child's age and the psychomotor development. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier SAS.

  10. Long-term governance for sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martell, M.

    2007-01-01

    Meritxell Martell spoke of the long-term aspects of radioactive waste management. She pointed out that decision-making processes need to be framed within the context of sustainability, which means that a balance should be sought between scientific considerations, economic aspects and structural conditions. Focusing on structural aspects, Working Group 3 of COWAM-Spain came to the conclusion that the activity of the regulator is a key factor of long-term management. Another finding is that from a sustainability perspective multi-level governance is more effective for coping with the challenges of radioactive waste management than one tier of government-making decisions. The working group also felt that the current Local Information Committees need to evolve towards more institutionalized and legitimized mechanisms for long-term involvement. Ms. Martell introduced a study comparing the efficiency of economic instruments to advance sustainable development in nuclear communities vs. municipalities in mining areas. The study found that funds transferred to nuclear zones had become a means to facilitate local acceptance of nuclear facilities rather than a means to promote socio-economic development. Another finding is that economic instruments are not sufficient guarantees of sustainable development by themselves; additional preconditions include leadership, vision and entrepreneur-ship on the part of community leaders, private or public investments, among others. Finally, Ms. Martell summarised the challenges faced by the Spanish radioactive waste management programme, which include the need for strategic thinking, designing the future in a participatory fashion, and working with local and regional governments and citizens to devise mechanisms for social learning, economic development and environmental protection. (author)

  11. Long term aspects of uranium tailings management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg, K.

    1980-05-01

    This paper sets out the background issues which lead to the development of interim close-out criteria for uranium mill tailings. It places the current state-of-the-art for tailings management into both a national and international perspective and shows why such interim criteria are needed now. There are seven specific criteria proposed dealing with the need to have: passive barriers, limits on surface water recharge, durable systems, long term performance guarantees, limits to access, controls on water and airborne releases and finally to have a knowledge of exposure pathways. This paper is intended to serve as a focus for subsequent discussions with all concerned parties. (auth)

  12. Human Behaviour in Long-Term Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session WP1, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Psychological Support for International Space Station Mission; Psycho-social Training for Man in Space; Study of the Physiological Adaptation of the Crew During A 135-Day Space Simulation; Interpersonal Relationships in Space Simulation, The Long-Term Bed Rest in Head-Down Tilt Position; Psychological Adaptation in Groups of Varying Sizes and Environments; Deviance Among Expeditioners, Defining the Off-Nominal Act in Space and Polar Field Analogs; Getting Effective Sleep in the Space-Station Environment; Human Sleep and Circadian Rhythms are Altered During Spaceflight; and Methodological Approach to Study of Cosmonauts Errors and Its Instrumental Support.

  13. Sources to the landscape - detailed spatiotemporal analysis of 200 years Danish landscape dynamics using unexploited historical maps and aerial photos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Stig Roar; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Dupont, Henrik

    to declassification of military maps and aerial photos from the cold war, only relatively few sources have been made available to researchers due to lacking efforts in digitalization and related services. And even though the digitizing of cartographic material has been accelerated, the digitally available materials...... or to the commercial photo series from the last 20 years. This poster outlines a new research project focusing on the potential of unexploited cartographic sources for detailed analysis of the dynamic of the Danish landscape between 1800 – 2000. The project draws on cartographic sources available in Danish archives...... of material in landscape change studies giving a high temporal and spatial resolution. The project also deals with the opportunity and constrain of comparing different cartographic sources with diverse purpose and time of production, e.g. different scale and quality of aerial photos or the difference between...

  14. Long term impacts of international outsourcing of manufacturing on sustainability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moosavirad, Seyed Hamed; Kara, Sami; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2014-01-01

    International outsourcing seems to be a cost efficient way of production. However, there are serious concerns about its long term impacts on the environmental, social and economic sustainability. This paper aims to quantify these impacts by using input output analysis, linear programming and system......% international outsourcing scenario and the baseline scenario due to their differences in production technologies. © 2014 CIRP....... dynamics in a case study including European electrical industry (outsourcer), Chinese electrical industry (outsourcee) and their main suppliers. Results depict the differences related to the total CO2 emissions, the number of employees and the gross value added of these two regions between a 10...

  15. Craniopharyngioma in Children: Long-term Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    STEINBOK, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The survival rate for childhood craniopharyngioma has been improving, with more long-term survivors. Unfortunately it is rare for the patient to be normal, either from the disease itself or from the effects of treatment. Long-term survivors of childhood craniopharyngioma suffer a number of impairments, which include visual loss, endocrinopathy, hypothalamic dysfunction, cerebrovascular problems, neurologic and neurocognitive dysfunction. Pituitary insufficiency is present in almost 100%. Visual and hypothalamic dysfunction is common. There is a high risk of metabolic syndrome and increased risk of cerebrovascular disease, including stroke and Moyamoya syndrome. Cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional problems are prevalent. Finally, there is a higher risk of premature death among survivors of craniopharyngioma, and often this is not from tumor recurrence. It is important to consider craniopharyngioma as a chronic disease. There is no perfect treatment. The treatment has to be tailored to the individual patient to minimize dysfunction caused by tumor and treatments. So “cure” of the tumor does not mean a normal patient. The management of the patient and family needs multidisciplinary evaluation and should involve ophthalmology, endocrinology, neurosurgery, oncology, and psychology. Furthermore, it is also important to address emotional issues and social integration. PMID:26345668

  16. Institutionalization and Organizational Long-term Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise L. Fleck

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Institutionalization processes have an ambivalent effect on organizational long-term success. Even though they foster organizational stability and permanence, they also bring about rigidity and resistance to change. As a result, successful organizations are likely to lose their competitive advantage over time. The paper addresses this issue through the investigation of the institutionalization processes of two long-lived companies: General Electric, a firm that has been a long-term success and its rival, Westinghouse, which was broken up after eleven decades of existence. The longitudinal, multilevel analysis of firms and industry has identified two different modes of organizational institutionalization. The reactive mode gives rise to rigidity and change resistance, much like institutional theory predicts; the proactive mode, on the other hand, neutralizes those negative effects of institutionalization processes. In the reactive mode, structure predominates. In the proactive mode, agency plays a major role in organizational institutionalization, and in managing the organization’s relations with the environment, clearly contributing to environmental institutionalization.

  17. Long term testing of PSI-membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huslage, J; Brack, H P; Geiger, F; Buechi, F N; Tsukada, A; Scherer, G G [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    Long term tests of PSI membranes based on radiation-grafted FEP and ETFE films were carried out and FEP-based membranes were evaluated by monitoring the in-situ membrane area resistance measured by a current pulse method. By modifying our irradiation procedure and using the double crosslinking concept we obtain reproducible membrane cell lifetimes (in term of in-situ membrane resistance) of greater than 5000 hours at 60-65{sup o}C. Preliminary tests at 80-85{sup o}C with lifetimes of greater than 2500 demonstrate the potential long term stability of PSI proton exchange membranes based on FEP over the whole operating temperature range of low-temperature polymer electrolyte fuel cells. Radiation grafted PSI membranes based on ETFE have better mechanical properties than those of the FEP membranes. Mechanical properties are particularly important in large area cells and fuel cell stacks. ETFE membranes have been tested successfully for approximately 1000 h in a 2-cell stack (100 cm{sup 2} active area each cell). (author) 4 figs., 4 refs.

  18. Neo bladder long term follow-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fakhr, I.; Mohamed, A. M.; Moustafa, A.; Al-Sherbiny, M.; Salama, M.

    2013-01-01

    One of the commonest forms of orthotopic bladder substitution for bladder cancer surivors, used in our institute, is the use of ileocecal segment. Sometimes, the need for Indiana pouch heterotropic continent diversion arises. Aim: To compare the long-term effect of orthotopic ileocecal bladder and heterotropic Indiana pouch following radical cystectomy in bladder cancer patients. Patients and methods: Between January 2008 and December 2011, 91 patients underwent radical cystectomy/anterior pelvic exentration and ortho topic ileocecal bladder reconstruction (61 patients) and Indiana pouch (30 patients), when orthotopic diversion could not be technically or oncologically feasible. Results: Convalescence was uneventful in most patients. All minor and major urinary leakage cases, in both diversions groups, where successfully conservatively treated. Only one patient in the ileocecal group with major urinary leak required re-exploration with successful revision of uretro-colonic anastomosis. Only one patient in the Indiana pouch group had accidentally discovered sub-centimetric stone, which was simply expelled. The overall survival proportion of ileocecal group was 100% compared to 80% in the Indiana pouch group (p < 0.001). The disease free survival proportion of ileocecal group was 90.8% compared to 80% in the Indiana pouch group (p = 0.076). Effective comparative daytime and nighttime urinary continence as well as renal function deterioration were not statistically significant between both reconstruction types. Conclusion: Both ileocecal bladder and Indiana pouch are safe procedures in regard to long-term effects over kidney function following radical cystectomy

  19. Toward a comprehensive long term nicotine policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, N; Henningfield, J E; Benowitz, N L; Connolly, G N; Dresler, C; Fagerstrom, K; Jarvis, M J; Boyle, P

    2005-06-01

    Global tobacco deaths are high and rising. Tobacco use is primarily driven by nicotine addiction. Overall tobacco control policy is relatively well agreed upon but a long term nicotine policy has been less well considered and requires further debate. Reaching consensus is important because a nicotine policy is integral to the target of reducing tobacco caused disease, and the contentious issues need to be resolved before the necessary political changes can be sought. A long term and comprehensive nicotine policy is proposed here. It envisages both reducing the attractiveness and addictiveness of existing tobacco based nicotine delivery systems as well as providing alternative sources of acceptable clean nicotine as competition for tobacco. Clean nicotine is defined as nicotine free enough of tobacco toxicants to pass regulatory approval. A three phase policy is proposed. The initial phase requires regulatory capture of cigarette and smoke constituents liberalising the market for clean nicotine; regulating all nicotine sources from the same agency; and research into nicotine absorption and the role of tobacco additives in this process. The second phase anticipates clean nicotine overtaking tobacco as the primary source of the drug (facilitated by use of regulatory and taxation measures); simplification of tobacco products by limitation of additives which make tobacco attractive and easier to smoke (but tobacco would still be able to provide a satisfying dose of nicotine). The third phase includes a progressive reduction in the nicotine content of cigarettes, with clean nicotine freely available to take the place of tobacco as society's main nicotine source.

  20. Long term ground movement of TRISTAN synchrotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endo, K.; Ohsawa, Y.; Miyahara, M.

    1989-01-01

    The long term ground movement is estimated through the geological survey before a big accelerator is planned. For the case of TRISTAN-MR (main ring), its site was surveyed to reflect the underground information to the building prior to the construction. The movement of the synchrotron magnet mainly results from the structure of the tunnel. If an individual movement of the magnet exceeds a certain threshold limit, it gives a significant effect on the particle behavior in a synchrotron. Height of the quadrupole magnets were observed periodically during past two years at the TRISTAN-MR and their height differences along the 3 km circumference of the accelerator ring were decomposed into the Fourier components depicting the causes of the movements. Results shows the movement of the tunnel foundation which was also observed by the simultaneous measurement of both magnets and fiducial marks on the tunnel wall. The long term movement of the magnets is summarized with the geological survey prior to construction. 1 ref., 6 figs., 1 tab

  1. Long-term preservation of anammox bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothrock, Michael J; Vanotti, Matias B; Szögi, Ariel A; Gonzalez, Maria Cruz Garcia; Fujii, Takao

    2011-10-01

    Deposit of useful microorganisms in culture collections requires long-term preservation and successful reactivation techniques. The goal of this study was to develop a simple preservation protocol for the long-term storage and reactivation of the anammox biomass. To achieve this, anammox biomass was frozen or lyophilized at two different freezing temperatures (-60°C and in liquid nitrogen (-200°C)) in skim milk media (with and without glycerol), and the reactivation of anammox activity was monitored after a 4-month storage period. Of the different preservation treatments tested, only anammox biomass preserved via freezing in liquid nitrogen followed by lyophilization in skim milk media without glycerol achieved stoichiometric ratios for the anammox reaction similar to the biomass in both the parent bioreactor and in the freshly harvested control treatment. A freezing temperature of -60°C alone, or in conjunction with lyophilization, resulted in the partial recovery of the anammox bacteria, with an equal mixture of anammox and nitrifying bacteria in the reactivated biomass. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the successful reactivation of anammox biomass preserved via sub-zero freezing and/or lyophilization. The simple preservation protocol developed from this study could be beneficial to accelerate the integration of anammox-based processes into current treatment systems through a highly efficient starting anammox biomass.

  2. Long term creep behavior of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, T.W.

    1975-01-01

    This report presents the findings of an experimental investigation to evaluate the long term creep behavior of concrete subjected to sustained uniaxial loads for an extended period of time at 75 0 F. The factors investigated were (1) curing time (90, 183, and 365 days); (2) curing history (as-cast and air-dried); and (3) uniaxial stress (600 and 2400 psi). The experimental investigation applied uniaxial compressive loads to cylindrical concrete specimens and measured strains with vibrating wire strain gages that were cast in the concrete specimen along the axial and radial axes. Specimens cured for 90 days prior to loading were subjected to a sustained load for a period of one year, at which time the loads were removed; the specimens which were cured for 183 or 365 days, however, were not unloaded and have been under load for 5 and 4.5 years, respectively. The effect of each of the above factors on the instantaneous and creep behavior is discussed and the long term creep behavior of the specimens cured for 183 or 365 days is evaluated. The findings of these evaluations are summarized. (17 figures, 10 tables) (U.S.)

  3. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-10-22

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted image of a famous person were larger in a group of participants who had slept (experiment 1) or merely napped for 90 min (experiment 2) during the interval between adaptation and test compared with controls who stayed awake. Participants' individual rapid eye movement sleep duration predicted the size of post-sleep behavioural adaptation effects. Our data suggest that sleep prevented decay of adaptation in a way that is qualitatively different from the effects of reduced visual interference known as 'storage'. In the light of the well-established link between sleep and memory consolidation, our findings link the perceptual mechanisms of sensory adaptation--which are usually not considered to play a relevant role in mnemonic processes--with learning and memory, and at the same time reveal a new function of sleep in cognition.

  4. The effect of heterogeneous landscape dynamics on ecotone types at two convergent semi-arid biomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landscapes in biome transition zones consist of a mosaic of patches dominated or codominated by species from adjacent biomes. Shifts in the vegetation composition and dynamics of a biome transition zone depend upon the underlying patch dynamics of the ecotones between these dominant species. Landsca...

  5. Importance of ecotone type to landscape dynamics at biome transition zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landscapes in biome transition zones consist of a mosaic of patches dominated or codominated by species from adjacent biomes. Shifts in the vegetation composition and dynamics of a biome transition zone depend upon the underlying patch dynamics of the ecotones between these dominant species. Landsc...

  6. Long-term induced agricultural intensification in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teng, Shuqing; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of agricultural intensification has great implications for biodiversity conservation faced with increasing human population and food demand. How agricultural intensification evolves with human population growth is differently described by three theories, namely......, the Boserupian, Malthusian and induced intensification theories. The Malthusian theory suggests quick adoption of available techniques that increase human population, while the other two share one viewpoint that increased intensive level of agriculture is passively induced by population growth. Which theory has...... a prediction that matches long-term dynamics of agricultural intensification in history? Using historical land-use data spanning two thousand years, this study estimated the dynamic trajectories of four cultivation practices with different intensive levels in a part of China and assessed the three theories...

  7. The environment in the Netherlands in the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieringa, K.; Maas, R.

    1992-01-01

    The environmental problem is one of the central elements in the newest long-term scenarios of the CPB (Dutch Central Planning Bureau). Will the environmental problems limit the economic growth for the next 25 years? Or can growth of production and consumption be combined with the environmental aims as formulated in the National Environmental Policy (NMP in Dutch). Being a preliminary study on the third National Environmental Outlook (to be published in 1993) the governmental institute for public health and environmental hygiene (RIVM) calculated the environmental impacts in the scenarios developed by the CPB. In particular attention is paid to the costs of the planned environmental policy. The scenarios discussed are Balanced Growth, characterized by a strong economic growth, sustainable economic development, and a dynamic technological development, the Global Shift scenario, characterized by a very dynamic technological development, and the European Renaissance scenario with a less dynamic development. 2 figs., 1 tab

  8. [Dynamic evolution of landscape spatial pattern in Taihu Lake basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fang; Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong

    2017-11-01

    Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000, 2010 and 2015, the landscape index, dynamic change model, landscape transfer matrix and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the dynamic evolution of the landscape spatial pattern of Taihu Lake basin. The results showed that the landscape type of the basin was dominated by cultivated land and construction land, and the degree of landscape fragmentation was strengthened from 2000 to 2015, and the distribution showed a uniform trend. From the point of transfer dynamic change, the cultivated land and construction land changed significantly, which was reduced by 6761 km 2 (2.1%) and increased by 6615.33 km 2 (8.4%), respectively. From the landscape transfer, it could be seen that the main change direction of the cultivated land reduction was the construction land, and the cultivated land with 7866.30 km 2 was converted into construction land, accounting for 91.6% of the cultivated land change, and the contribution to the construction land was 96.5%. The trend of dynamic changes of cultivated and construction land in the counties and cities was the same as that of the whole Taihu Lake basin. For Shanghai Central Urban, as well as Pudong District, Lin'an City, Baoshan District, Minhang District, Jiading District and Changzhou City, the area of the cultivated land and construction land changed more prominently. However, compared with the CLUE-S model for the landscape pattern change in 2030, the change of cultivated and construction lands would be the largest in the natural development scenario. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of grassland would increase and the dynamic degree would reach 54.5%. Under the situation of cultivated land protection, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land would be decreased.

  9. Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Rayamajhi, Min B.; Botkin, Daniel B.

    2017-01-01

    ContextMelaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (hereafter melaleuca) is an invasive tree from Australia that has spread over the freshwater ecosystems of southern Florida, displacing native vegetation, thus threatening native biodiversity. Suppression of melaleuca appears to be progressing through the introduction of insect species, the weevil, Oxiops vitiosa, and the psyllid, Boreioglycaspis melaleucae.ObjectiveTo improve understanding of the possible effects of herbivory on the landscape dynamics of melaleuca in native southern Florida plant communities.MethodsWe projected likely future changes in plant communities using the individual based modeling platform, JABOWA-II, by simulating successional processes occurring in two types of southern Florida habitat, cypress swamp and bay swamp, occupied by native species and melaleuca, with the impact of insect herbivores.ResultsComputer simulations show melaleuca invasion leads to decreases in density and basal area of native species, but herbivory would effectively control melaleuca to low levels, resulting in a recovery of native species. When herbivory was modeled on pure melaleuca stands, it was more effective in stands with initially larger-sized melaleuca. Although the simulated herbivory did not eliminate melaleuca, it decreased its presence dramatically in all cases, supporting the long-term effectiveness of herbivory in controlling melaleuca invasion.ConclusionsThe results provide three conclusions relevant to management: (1) The introduction of insect herbivory that has been applied to melaleuca appears sufficient to suppress melaleuca over the long term, (2) dominant native species may recover in about 50 years, and (3) regrowth of native species will further suppress melaleuca through competition.

  10. Long-term stability of salivary cortisol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, A H; Hansen, Åse Marie

    2005-01-01

    either stored in small vials or spiked to polyester Salivette tampons before analysis for cortisol using Spectria RIA kits. The effects of storage were evaluated by a linear regression model (mixed procedure) on a logarithmic scale. No effects on cortisol concentrations were found after storage of saliva......The measurement of salivary cortisol provides a simple, non-invasive, and stress-free measure frequently used in studies of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity. In research projects, samples are often required to be stored for longer periods of time either because of the protocol...... of the project or because of lack of funding for analysis. The aim of the present study was to explore the effects of long-term storage of samples on the amounts of measurable cortisol. Ten pools of saliva were collected on polyester Salivette tampons from five subjects. After centrifugation the samples were...

  11. Long-term cryogenic space storage system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, R. A.; Chronic, W. L.

    1973-01-01

    Discussion of the design, fabrication and testing of a 225-cu ft spherical cryogenic storage system for long-term subcritical applications under zero-g conditions in storing subcritical cryogens for space vehicle propulsion systems. The insulation system design, the analytical methods used, and the correlation between the performance test results and analytical predictions are described. The best available multilayer insulation materials and state-of-the-art thermal protection concepts were applied in the design, providing a boiloff rate of 0.152 lb/hr, or 0.032% per day, and an overall heat flux of 0.066 Btu/sq ft hr based on a 200 sq ft surface area. A six to eighteen month cryogenic storage is provided by this system for space applications.

  12. Long-term control of root growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene

    1992-05-26

    A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

  13. Long term performance of radon mitigation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prill, R.; Fisk, W.J.

    2002-01-01

    Researchers installed radon mitigation systems in 12 houses in Spokane, Washington and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho during the heating season 1985--1986 and continued to monitor indoor radon quarterly and annually for ten years. The mitigation systems included active sub-slab ventilation, basement over-pressurization, and crawlspace isolation and ventilation. The occupants reported various operational problems with these early mitigation systems. The long-term radon measurements were essential to track the effectiveness of the mitigation systems over time. All 12 homes were visited during the second year of the study, while a second set 5 homes was visited during the fifth year to determine the cause(s) of increased radon in the homes. During these visits, the mitigation systems were inspected and measurements of system performance were made. Maintenance and modifications were performed to improve system performance in these homes

  14. Rising Long-term Interest Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallett, Andrew Hughes

    Rather than chronicle recent developments in European long-term interest rates as such, this paper assesses the impact of increases in those interest rates on economic performance and inflation. That puts us in a position to evaluate the economic pressures for further rises in those rates......, the first question posed in this assignment, and the scope for overshooting (the second question), and then make some illustrative predictions of future interest rates in the euro area. We find a wide range of effects from rising interest rates, mostly small and mostly negative, focused on investment...... till the emerging European recovery is on a firmer basis and capable of overcoming increases in the cost of borrowing and shrinking fiscal space. There is also an implication that worries about rising/overshooting interest rates often reflect the fact that inflation risks are unequally distributed...

  15. Prediction of long-term creep curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Hiroshi; Maruyama, Kouichi

    1992-01-01

    This paper aims at discussing how to predict long-term irradiation enhanced creep properties from short-term tests. The predictive method based on the θ concept was examined by using creep data of ferritic steels. The method was successful in predicting creep curves including the tertiary creep stage as well as rupture lifetimes. Some material constants involved in the method are insensitive to the irradiation environment, and their values obtained in thermal creep are applicable to irradiation enhanced creep. The creep mechanisms of most engineering materials definitely change at the athermal yield stress in the non-creep regime. One should be aware that short-term tests must be carried out at stresses lower than the athermal yield stress in order to predict the creep behavior of structural components correctly. (orig.)

  16. Hanford grout: predicting long-term performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewart, G.H.; Mitchell, D.H.; Treat, R.L.; McMakin, A.H.

    1987-01-01

    Grouted disposal is being planned for the low-level portion of liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford site in Washington state. The performance of the disposal system must be such that it will protect people and the environment for thousands of years after disposal. To predict whether a specific grout disposal system will comply with existing and foreseen regulations, a performance assessment (PA) is performed. Long-term PAs are conducted for a range of performance conditions. Performance assessment is an inexact science. Quantifying projected impacts is especially difficult when only scant data exist on the behavior of certain components of the disposal system over thousands of years. To develop defensible results, we are honing the models and obtaining experimental data. The combination of engineered features and PA refinements is being used to ensure that Hanford grout will meet its principal goal: to protect people and the environment in the future

  17. The discovery of long-term potentiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lømo, Terje

    2003-04-29

    This paper describes circumstances around the discovery of long-term potentiation (LTP). In 1966, I had just begun independent work for the degree of Dr medicinae (PhD) in Per Andersen's laboratory in Oslo after an eighteen-month apprenticeship with him. Studying the effects of activating the perforant path to dentate granule cells in the hippocampus of anaesthetized rabbits, I observed that brief trains of stimuli resulted in increased efficiency of transmission at the perforant path-granule cell synapses that could last for hours. In 1968, Tim Bliss came to Per Andersen's laboratory to learn about the hippocampus and field potential recording for studies of possible memory mechanisms. The two of us then followed up my preliminary results from 1966 and did the experiments that resulted in a paper that is now properly considered to be the basic reference for the discovery of LTP.

  18. Long-term opioid therapy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birke, H; Ekholm, Ola; Sjøgren, P

    2017-01-01

    significantly associated with initiation of L-TOT in individuals with CNCP at baseline. During follow-up, L-TOT in CNCP patients increased the likelihood of negative changes in pain interference with work (OR 9.2; 95% CI 1.9-43.6) and in moderate activities (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.1-12.6). The analysis of all......,145). A nationally representative subsample of individuals (n = 2015) completed the self-administered questionnaire in both 2000 and 2013. Collected information included chronic pain (≥6 months), health behaviour, self-rated health, pain interference with work activities and physical activities. Long-term users were...... individuals indicated a dose-response relationship between longer treatment duration and the risk of experiencing negative changes. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals on L-TOT seemed not to achieve the key goals of opioid therapy: pain relief, improved quality of life and functional capacity. SIGNIFICANCE: Long...

  19. Long Term Planning at IQ Metal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    This is a Danish version. This case about long term planning at the owner-managed manufacturing firm IQ Metal shows how the future management and ownership may be organized to utilize owner assets and minimize roadblocks. Initially, the owner-manager Bo Fischer Larsen explains how he acquired...... a stake in 2007 in the company which at that time was named Braendstrup Maskinfabrik. He furthermore expalins how he has developed the company based on a strategic plan focusing on professionalization and outsourcing. Next, the video shows how to type Bo Fischer Larsen's replies to the questions...... in The Owner Strategy Map into the questionnaire available on www.ejerstrategi-kortet.dk. Lastly, the Owner Strategy Map's recommendation of how to organize the future management and ownership of IQ Metal is explained....

  20. Long-term Consequences of Early Parenthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Eva Rye; Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Verner, Mette

    (and to lesser extent employment), as fathers appear to support the family, especially when early parenthood is combined with cohabitation with the mother and the child. Heterogeneous effects reveal that individuals with a more favorable socioeconomic background are affected more severely than......Having children at an early age is known to be associated with unfavorable economic outcomes, such as lower education, employment and earnings. In this paper, we study the long-term consequences of early parenthood for mothers and fathers. Our study is based on rich register-based data that......, importantly, merges all childbirths to the children’s mothers and fathers, allowing us to study the consequences of early parenthood for both parents. We perform a sibling fixed effects analysis in order to account for unobserved family attributes that are possibly correlated with early parenthood...

  1. Long-Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun

    2003-01-01

    This thesis describes the development of three decision support models for long-term investment planning in restructured power systems. The model concepts address the changing conditions for the electric power industry, with the introduction of more competitive markets, higher uncertainty and less centralised planning. Under these circumstances there is an emerging need for new planning models, also for analyses of the power system in a long-term perspective. The thesis focuses particularly on how dynamic and stochastic modelling can contribute to the improvement of decision making in a restructured power industry. We argue that the use of such modelling approaches has become more important after the introduction of competitive power markets, due to the participants' increased exposure to price fluctuations and economic risk. Our models can be applied by individual participants in the power system to evaluate investment projects for new power generation capacity. The models can also serve as a decision support tool on a regulatory level, providing analyses of the long-term performance of the power system under different regulations and market designs. In Chapter 1, we give a brief introduction to the ongoing development towards restructuring and liberalisation of the electrical power system. A discussion of the operation and organisation of restructured power systems is also provided. In Chapter 2, we look more specifically at different modelling approaches for expansion planning in electrical power systems. We also discuss how the contributions in this thesis compare to previous work in the field of decision support models for long-term planning in both regulated and competitive power systems. In Chapter 3, we develop a power market simulation model based on system dynamics. The advantages and limitations of using descriptive system dynamics models for long-term planning purposes in this context are also discussed. Chapter 4 is devoted to a novel optimisation

  2. Long term radiological impact of thorium extraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menard, S.; Schapira, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    Thorium extraction produces a certain amount of radioactive wastes. Potential long term radiological impact of these residues has been calculated using the recent ICRP-68 ingestion dose factors in connection with the computing code DECAY, developed at Orsay and described in this work. This code solves the well known Bateman's equations which govern the time dependence of a set of coupled radioactive nuclei. Monazites will be very likely the minerals to be exploited first, in case of an extensive use of thorium as nuclear fuel. Because monazites contain uranium as well, mining residues will contain not only the descendants of 232 Th and a certain proportion of non-extracted thorium (taken here to be 5%), but also this uranium, if left in the wastes for economical reasons. If no uranium would be present at all in the mineral, the potential radiotoxicity would strongly decrease in approximately 60 years, at the pace of the 5.8 years period of 228 Ra, which becomes the longest-lived radionuclide of the 4n radioactive family in the residues. Moreover, there is no risk due to radon exhalation, because of the very short period of 220 Rn. These significant differences between uranium and thorium mining have to be considered in view of some estimated long term real radiological impacts due to uranium residues, which could reach a value of the order of 1 mSv/year, the dose limit recommended for the public by the recent ICRP-60. (authors). 15 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs., 43 appendices

  3. Managing Records for the Long Term - 12363

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montgomery, John V. [U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Legacy Management, Morgantown, West Virginia (United States); Gueretta, Jeanie [U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Legacy Management, Grand Junction, Colorado (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for managing vast amounts of information documenting historical and current operations. This information is critical to the operations of the DOE Office of Legacy Management. Managing legacy records and information is challenging in terms of accessibility and changing technology. The Office of Legacy Management is meeting these challenges by making records and information management an organizational priority. The Office of Legacy Management mission is to manage DOE post-closure responsibilities at former Cold War weapons sites to ensure the future protection of human health and the environment. These responsibilities include environmental stewardship and long-term preservation and management of operational and environmental cleanup records associated with each site. A primary organizational goal for the Office of Legacy Management is to 'Preserve, Protect, and Share Records and Information'. Managing records for long-term preservation is an important responsibility. Adequate and dedicated resources and management support are required to perform this responsibility successfully. Records tell the story of an organization and may be required to defend an organization in court, provide historical information, identify lessons learned, or provide valuable information for researchers. Loss of records or the inability to retrieve records because of poor records management processes can have serious consequences and even lead to an organisation's downfall. Organizations must invest time and resources to establish a good records management program because of its significance to the organization as a whole. The Office of Legacy Management will continue to research and apply innovative ways of doing business to ensure that the organization stays at the forefront of effective records and information management. DOE is committed to preserving records that document our nation's Cold War legacy, and the

  4. Fuel dynamics by using Landscape Ecology Indices in the Alto Mijares, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, J.; Garcia, C. V.

    2009-04-01

    Land abandonment in Mediterranean regions has brought about a number of management problems, being an increased wildfire activity prevalent among them. Agricultural neglect in highlands resulted in reduced anthropogenic disturbances and greater landscape homogeneity in areas such as the Alto Mijares in Spain. It is widely accepted that processes like forest fires, influence structure of the landscape and vice versa. Fire-prone Mediterranean flora is well adapted to this disturbance, exhibiting excellent succession capabilities; but higher fuel loads and homogeneous conditions may ally to promote vegetation recession when the fire regime is altered by land abandonment. Both succession and recession make changes to the landscape structure and configuration. However, these changes are difficult to quantify and characterize. If landscape restoration of these forests is a management objective, then developing a quantitative knowledge base for landscape fuel dynamics is a prerequisite. Four classified LandsatTM satellite images were compared to quantify changes in landscape structure between 1984 and 1998. An attempt is made to define landscape level dynamics for fuel development after reduced disturbance and fuel accumulation that leads to catastrophic fires by using landscape ecology indices. By doing so, indices that best describe the fuel dynamics are pointed. The results indicate that low-level disturbance increases heterogeneity, thus lowers fire hazard. No disturbance or severe disturbance increases homogeneity because of vegetation succession and may lead to devastating fires. These fires could be avoided by human induced disturbance like controlled burning, harvesting, mechanical works for fuel reduction and other silviculture measures; thus bringing in more heterogeneity in the region. The Alto Mijares landscape appears to be in an unstable equilibrium where succession and recession are at tug of war. The effects are evident in the general absence of the climax

  5. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

    2014-01-01

    Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

  6. Landscape dynamics and different climate forcings in eastern Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, N. J.; John, R.; Chen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Central and Eastern Mongolia have witnessed significant decreasing greening from the period 2000-2012. This decline may be partially, directly due to increased grazing pressure from livestock. Our study objective is to understand how landscape change may be altering heat fluxes and precipitation. Using the RAMS 6.0 regional climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in growing-season precipitation and atmospheric behavior under: (a) observed vegetation, and (b) aggressively reduced vegetation, to prognose likely locations and changes of the regional climate that might have resulted from land cover changes (2001-2010). We simulated a dzud/drought year (using forcing from 2001) and a wet year (using forcing from 2003). Our simulations show increased cloud cover and reduced daily temperature ranges for northeastern Mongolia where forest growth has expanded. Localized differences of 60 W/m2 of sensible heat flux were found when degraded landscape cover replaced older, more dense cover. More importantly, the overall trend towards reduced vegetation cover was responsible for higher screen height temperatures and reduced soil moisture throughout much of the domain, together with a shift of moisture southward of Inner Mongolia. Thus, even with improved chances for convection, soil moisture reductions of 5-10% would lead to overall even drier conditions. In the steppe regions around the Gobi desert, more complex patterns are evident and landscape drivers are less clear.

  7. Critical neural networks with short- and long-term plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michiels van Kessenich, L.; Luković, M.; de Arcangelis, L.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2018-03-01

    In recent years self organized critical neuronal models have provided insights regarding the origin of the experimentally observed avalanching behavior of neuronal systems. It has been shown that dynamical synapses, as a form of short-term plasticity, can cause critical neuronal dynamics. Whereas long-term plasticity, such as Hebbian or activity dependent plasticity, have a crucial role in shaping the network structure and endowing neural systems with learning abilities. In this work we provide a model which combines both plasticity mechanisms, acting on two different time scales. The measured avalanche statistics are compatible with experimental results for both the avalanche size and duration distribution with biologically observed percentages of inhibitory neurons. The time series of neuronal activity exhibits temporal bursts leading to 1 /f decay in the power spectrum. The presence of long-term plasticity gives the system the ability to learn binary rules such as xor, providing the foundation of future research on more complicated tasks such as pattern recognition.

  8. Influence of dynamic topography on landscape evolution and passive continental margin stratigraphy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Xuesong; Salles, Tristan; Flament, Nicolas; Rey, Patrice

    2017-04-01

    Quantifying the interaction between surface processes and tectonics/deep Earth processes is one important aspect of landscape evolution modelling. Both observations and results from numerical modelling indicate that dynamic topography - a surface expression of time-varying mantle convection - plays a significant role in shaping landscape through geological time. Recent research suggests that dynamic topography also has non-negligible effects on stratigraphic architecture by modifying accommodation space available for sedimentation. In addition, dynamic topography influences the sediment supply to continental margins. We use Badlands to investigate the evolution of a continental-scale landscape in response to transient dynamic uplift or subsidence, and to model the stratigraphic development on passive continental margins in response to sea-level change, thermal subsidence and dynamic topography. We consider a circularly symmetric landscape consisting of a plateau surrounded by a gently sloping continental plain and a continental margin, and a linear wave of dynamic topography. We analyze the evolution of river catchments, of longitudinal river profiles and of the χ values to evaluate the dynamic response of drainage systems to dynamic topography. We calculate the amount of cumulative erosion and deposition, and sediment flux at shoreline position, as a function of precipitation rate and erodibility coefficient. We compute the stratal stacking pattern and Wheeler diagram on vertical cross-sections at the continental margin. Our results indicate that dynamic topography 1) has a considerable influence on drainage reorganization; 2) contributes to shoreline migration and the distribution of depositional packages by modifying the accommodation space; 3) affects sediment supply to the continental margin. Transient dynamic topography contributes to the migration of drainage divides and to the migration of the mainstream in a drainage basin. The dynamic uplift

  9. Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy V.P. Bliss

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

  10. Local Fitness Landscapes Predict Yeast Evolutionary Dynamics in Directionally Changing Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorter, Florien A; Aarts, Mark G M; Zwaan, Bas J; de Visser, J Arjan G M

    2018-01-01

    The fitness landscape is a concept that is widely used for understanding and predicting evolutionary adaptation. The topography of the fitness landscape depends critically on the environment, with potentially far-reaching consequences for evolution under changing conditions. However, few studies have assessed directly how empirical fitness landscapes change across conditions, or validated the predicted consequences of such change. We previously evolved replicate yeast populations in the presence of either gradually increasing, or constant high, concentrations of the heavy metals cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), and analyzed their phenotypic and genomic changes. Here, we reconstructed the local fitness landscapes underlying adaptation to each metal by deleting all repeatedly mutated genes both by themselves and in combination. Fitness assays revealed that the height, and/or shape, of each local fitness landscape changed considerably across metal concentrations, with distinct qualitative differences between unconditionally (Cd) and conditionally toxic metals (Ni and Zn). This change in topography had particularly crucial consequences in the case of Ni, where a substantial part of the individual mutational fitness effects changed in sign across concentrations. Based on the Ni landscape analyses, we made several predictions about which mutations had been selected when during the evolution experiment. Deep sequencing of population samples from different time points generally confirmed these predictions, demonstrating the power of landscape reconstruction analyses for understanding and ultimately predicting evolutionary dynamics, even under complex scenarios of environmental change. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

  11. The dynamics of the oesophageal squamous epithelium 'normalisation' process in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease treated with long-term acid suppression or anti-reflux surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastracci, L; Fiocca, R; Engström, C; Attwood, S; Ell, C; Galmiche, J P; Hatlebakk, J G; Långström, G; Eklund, S; Lind, T; Lundell, L

    2017-05-01

    Proton pump inhibitors and laparoscopic anti-reflux surgery (LARS) offer long-term symptom control to patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD). To evaluate the process of 'normalisation' of the squamous epithelium morphology of the distal oesophagus on these therapies. In the LOTUS trial, 554 patients with chronic GERD were randomised to receive either esomeprazole (20-40 mg daily) or LARS. After 5 years, 372 patients remained in the study (esomeprazole, 192; LARS, 180). Biopsies were taken at the Z-line and 2 cm above, at baseline, 1, 3 and 5 years. A severity score was calculated based on: papillae elongation, basal cell hyperplasia, intercellular space dilatations and eosinophilic infiltration. The epithelial proliferative activity was assessed by Ki-67 immunohistochemistry. A gradual improvement in all variables over 5 years was noted in both groups, at both the Z-line and 2 cm above. The severity score decreased from baseline at each subsequent time point in both groups (P refluxate seems to play the predominant role in restoring tissue morphology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Ecosystem function in complex mountain terrain: Combining models and long-term observations to advance process-based understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieder, William R.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.; Swenson, Sean C.; Suding, Katharine N.

    2017-04-01

    Abiotic factors structure plant community composition and ecosystem function across many different spatial scales. Often, such variation is considered at regional or global scales, but here we ask whether ecosystem-scale simulations can be used to better understand landscape-level variation that might be particularly important in complex terrain, such as high-elevation mountains. We performed ecosystem-scale simulations by using the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 to better understand how the increased length of growing seasons may impact carbon, water, and energy fluxes in an alpine tundra landscape. The model was forced with meteorological data and validated with observations from the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research Program site. Our results demonstrate that CLM is capable of reproducing the observed carbon, water, and energy fluxes for discrete vegetation patches across this heterogeneous ecosystem. We subsequently accelerated snowmelt and increased spring and summer air temperatures in order to simulate potential effects of climate change in this region. We found that vegetation communities that were characterized by different snow accumulation dynamics showed divergent biogeochemical responses to a longer growing season. Contrary to expectations, wet meadow ecosystems showed the strongest decreases in plant productivity under extended summer scenarios because of disruptions in hydrologic connectivity. These findings illustrate how Earth system models such as CLM can be used to generate testable hypotheses about the shifting nature of energy, water, and nutrient limitations across space and through time in heterogeneous landscapes; these hypotheses may ultimately guide further experimental work and model development.

  13. Radionuclide Incorporation and Long Term Performance of Apatite Waste Forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jianwei [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Lian, Jie [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States); Gao, Fei [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2016-01-04

    This project aims to combines state-of-the-art experimental and characterization techniques with atomistic simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. With an initial focus on long-lived I-129 and other radionuclides such as Cs, Sr in apatite structure, specific research objectives include the atomic scale understanding of: (1) incorporation behavior of the radionuclides and their effects on the crystal chemistry and phase stability; (2) stability and microstructure evolution of designed waste forms under coupled temperature and radiation environments; (3) incorporation and migration energetics of radionuclides and release behaviors as probed by DFT and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations; and (4) chemical durability as measured in dissolution experiments for long term performance evaluation and model validation.

  14. Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

    2004-01-01

    Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

  15. Long-term bedrock behavior research for soft rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Hiroyuki; Noda, Kenji

    2002-02-01

    When a formation disposal system is thought about, it is important to evaluate long-term dynamics behavior of boundary condition and near field bedrock of an artificial barrier adequately. In this study, three matters were executed for improvement of a dependability of the evaluation as follows. (1) Creep test was executed as purpose by dependability improvement of evaluation technique of creep problem by Okubo model. Okubo model constant was calculated than the unconfined compression test which let strain rate change with true rock, and the creep test which the constant was used, and estimated breaking time was done. As a result, the estimation of breaking time by Okubo model almost suffered according to the estimation although a variation of test-piece influenced it. (2) A tunnel model apparatus was produced in the purpose which grasped near field bedrock behavior, and it was tested. Simulation rock test body of 1 m * 1 m * 0.5 m was used for a test, and 15 cm tunnel excavation was carried out in an initial stress bottom. Quantities of inner space displacement were measured in a test, and a hardness-test was done after dismantlement, and looseness area was grasped quantitatively. As a result, the looseness area was able to be estimated with about 17.5 cm than tunnel center position. (3) A test approach in deep underground laboratory was examined, and examination/the in situ test which took advantage of rock core analysis/borehole as purpose and done examination item by grip of long-term bedrock behavior (a bord is taken advantage of, and bord itself is used) was shown. In addition, layout of the deep underground laboratory which carried out various tests about long-term behavior in 3 depth was shown. (author)

  16. Robotics for Long-Term Monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahin, Sarkis; Duran, Celso

    2002-01-01

    While long-term monitoring and stewardship means many things to many people, DOE has defined it as The physical controls, institutions, information, and other mechanisms needed to ensure protection of people and the environment at sites where DOE has completed or plans to complete cleanup (e.g., landfill closures, remedial actions, and facility stabilization). Across the United States, there are thousands of contaminated sites with multiple contaminants released from multiple sources where contaminants have transported and commingled. The U.S. government and U.S. industry are responsible for most of the contamination and are landowners of many of these contaminated properties. These sites must be surveyed periodically for various criteria including structural deterioration, water intrusion, integrity of storage containers, atmospheric conditions, and hazardous substance release. The surveys, however, are intrusive, time-consuming, and expensive and expose survey personnel to radioactive contamination. In long-term monitoring, there's a need for an automated system that will gather and report data from sensors without costly human labor. In most cases, a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) unit is used to collect and report data from a remote location. A SCADA unit consists of an embedded computer with data acquisition capabilities. The unit can be configured with various sensors placed in different areas of the site to be monitored. A system of this type is static, i.e., the sensors, once placed, cannot be moved to other locations within the site. For those applications where the number of sampling locations would require too many sensors, or where exact location of future problems is unknown, a mobile sensing platform is an ideal solution. In many facilities that undergo regular inspections, the number of video cameras and air monitors required to eliminate the need for human inspections is very large and far too costly. HCET's remote harsh

  17. Long-Term Clock Behavior of GPS IIR Satellites

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Epstein, Marvin; Dass, Todd; Rajan, John; Gilmour, Paul

    2007-01-01

    .... Rubidium clocks, as opposed to cesium clocks, have significant long-term drift. The current literature describes an initial model of drift aging for rubidium atomic clocks followed by a long-term characteristic...

  18. Elevated rheumatoid factor and long term risk of rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sune F; Bojesen, Stig E; Schnohr, Peter

    2012-01-01

    To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis.......To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis....

  19. Long term results of mandibular distraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Batra Puneet

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Mandibular distraction osteogenesis has become a popular surgical modality due to its many advantages over conventional orthognathic surgical procedures. However, in spite of the technique having been used for over 15 years, no concrete long term results are available regarding the stability of results. We discuss the various studies which have reported either in favour or against the stablility of results after distraction. We report a series of 6 cases (3 unilateral and 3 bilateral distraction where distraction was carried out before puberty and followed them up to seven years after removal of distractors. This case series shows that results achieved by distraction osteogenesis are unstable or best unpredictable with respect to producing a permanent size increase in the mandible. The role of the distraction osteogenesis in overcoming the pterygomassetric sling is questionable. We suggest a multicenter study with adequate patient numbers treated with a similar protocol and documented after growth cessation to have meaningful conclusions on the debate of distraction osteogenesis versus orthognathic surgery.

  20. [Perioperative management of long-term medication].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel Kahmann, I; Ruppen, W; Lurati Buse, G; Tsakiris, D A; Bruggisser, M

    2011-01-01

    Anesthesiologists and surgeons are increasingly faced with patients who are under long-term medication. Some of these drugs can interact with anaesthetics or anaesthesia and/or surgical interventions. As a result, patients may experience complications such as bleeding, ischemia, infection or severe circulatory reactions. On the other hand, perioperative discontinuation of medication is often more dangerous. The proportion of outpatient operations has increased dramatically in recent years and will probably continue to increase. Since the implementation of DRGs (pending in Switzerland, introduced in Germany for some time), the patient enters the hospital the day before operation. This means that the referring physician as well as anesthesiologists and surgeons at an early stage must deal with issues of perioperative pharmacotherapy. This review article is about the management of the major drug classes during the perioperative period. In addition to cardiac and centrally acting drugs and drugs that act on hemostasis and the endocrine system, special cases such as immunosuppressants and herbal remedies are mentioned.

  1. Long term agreements energy efficiency. Progress 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-11-01

    Long Term Agreements (LTAs) on energy efficiency have been contracted with various business sectors since 1992, as part of energy conservation policy: industrial sectors, commercial services, agrarian sectors and non-profit services. LTAs are voluntary agreements between a specific sector and the Minister of Economic Affairs. In some cases, the Minister of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries is also involved. The sector commits to an effort to improve energy efficiency by a particular percentage within an agreed period. As at 31 December 1999, a total of 29 LTAs had been contracted with industrial sectors and 14 with non-industrial ones. This report describes the progress of the LTAs in 1999. It reviews the energy efficiency improvements realised through the LTAs, both overall and in each individual sector. The aim is to make the efforts and results in the various sectors accessible to the general public. Appendix 1 describes the positioning of the LTA instrument. This Appendix provides and insight into the position of the LTAs within the overall set of policy instruments. It also covers the subsidy schemes and fiscal instruments that support the LTAs, the relationships between LTAs and environmental policy and new developments relating to the LTAs in the years ahead. Appendices 2 to 6 contain the reports on the LTAs and a list of abbreviations (Appendix 7)

  2. Long-term outcome of neuroparacoccidioidomycosis treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Francesconi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Neuroparacoccidioidomycosis (NPCM is a term used to describe the invasion of the central nervous system by the pathogenic fungus Paracoccidioides brasiliensis. NPCM has been described sporadically in some case reports and small case series, with little or no focus on treatment outcome and long-term follow-up. METHODS: All patients with NPCM from January 1991 to December 2006 were analyzed and were followed until December 2009. RESULTS: Fourteen (3.8% cases of NPCM were identified out of 367 patients with paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM. A combination of oral fluconazole and sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim (SMZ/TMP was the regimen of choice, with no documented death due to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis infection. Residual neurological deficits were observed in 8 patients. Residual calcification was a common finding in neuroimaging follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: All the patients in this study responded positively to the association of oral fluconazole and sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim, a regimen that should be considered a treatment option in cases of NPCM. Neurological sequela was a relatively common finding. For proper management of these patients, anticonvulsant treatment and physical therapy support were also needed.

  3. Long term prospects for world gas trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linder, P.T.

    1991-01-01

    Results are presented from a world gas trade model used to forecast long term gas markets. Assumptions that went into the model are described, including the extent of current proven gas reserves, production ratios, total energy and gas demand, gas supply cost curves for each producing country, available gas liquefaction and transportation facilities, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping costs. The results indicate that even with generally very low supply costs for most gas producing basins, gas trade will continue to be restricted by the relatively high cost of transportation, whether by pipeline or tanker. As a consequence, future gas trade will tend to be regionally oriented. United States gas imports will come mostly from Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico; Western Europe will largely be supplied by the Soviet Union and Africa, and Japan's requirements will generally be met by Pacific Rim producers. Although the Middle East has vast quantities of gas reserves, its export growth will continue to be hampered by its remote location from major markets. 16 figs

  4. Long term results of childhood dysphonia treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackiewicz-Nartowicz, Hanna; Sinkiewicz, Anna; Bielecka, Arleta; Owczarzak, Hanna; Mackiewicz-Milewska, Magdalena; Winiarski, Piotr

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the long term results of treatment and rehabilitation of childhood dysphonia. This study included a group of adolescents (n=29) aged from 15 to 20 who were treated due to pediatric hyperfunctional dysphonia and soft vocal fold nodules during their pre-mutational period (i.e. between 5 and 12 years of age). The pre-mutational therapy was comprised of proper breathing pattern training, voice exercises and psychological counseling. Laryngostroboscopic examination and perceptual analysis of voice were performed in each patient before treatment and one to four years after mutation was complete. The laryngostroboscopic findings, i.e. symmetry, amplitude, mucosal wave and vocal fold closure, were graded with NAPZ scale, and the GRBAS scale was used for the perceptual voice analysis. Complete regression of the childhood dysphonia was observed in all male patients (n=14). Voice disorders regressed completely also in 8 out of 15 girls, but symptoms of dysphonia documented on perceptual scale persisted in the remaining seven patients. Complex voice therapy implemented in adolescence should be considered as either the treatment or preventive measure of persistent voice strain, especially in girls. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

  6. Long-term effects of islet transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes-Walker, D Jane; Kay, Thomas W H

    2016-10-01

    Islet transplantation has made great progress in recent years. This is a remarkable technical feat but raises the question of what the long-term benefits and risks are for type I diabetes recipients. Graft survival continues to improve, and recent multicenter studies show that islet transplantation is particularly effective to prevent hypoglycemic events even in those who do not become insulin-independent and to achieve excellent glycemic control. Concerns include histocompatability leucocyte antigen (HLA) sensitization and other risks including from immunosuppression that islet transplantation shares with other forms of allotransplantation. Reversal of hypoglycemia unawareness and protection from severe hypoglycemia events are two of the main benefits of islet transplantation and they persist for the duration of graft function. Islet transplantation compares favorably with other therapies for those with hypoglycemia unawareness, although new technologies have not been tested head-to-head with transplantation. HLA sensitization increases with time after transplantation especially if immunosuppression is ceased and is a risk for those who may require future transplantation as well as being associated with loss of graft function.

  7. CERN Services for Long Term Data Preservation

    CERN Document Server

    Shiers, Jamie; Blomer, Jakob; Ganis, Gerardo; Dallmeier-Tiessen, Sunje; Simko, Tibor; Cancio Melia, German; CERN. Geneva. IT Department

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we describe the services that are offered by CERN for Long Term preservation of High Energy Physics (HEP) data, with the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as a key use case. Data preservation is a strategic goal for European High Energy Physics (HEP), as well as for the HEP community worldwide and we position our work in this global content. Specifically, we target the preservation of the scientific data, together with the software, documentation and computing environment needed to process, (re-)analyse or otherwise (re-)use the data. The target data volumes range from hundreds of petabytes (PB – 10^15 bytes) to hundreds of exabytes (EB – 10^18 bytes) for a target duration of several decades. The Use Cases driving data preservation are presented together with metrics that allow us to measure how close we are to meeting our goals, including the possibility for formal certification for at least part of this work. Almost all of the services that we describe are fully generic – the exception being A...

  8. Containment long-term operational integrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sammataro, R.F.

    1990-01-01

    Periodic integrated leak rate tests are required to assure that containments continue to meet allowable leakage limits. Although overall performance has been quite good to date, several major containment aging and degradation mechanisms have been identified. Two pilot plant life extension (PLEX) studies serve as models for extending the operational integrity of present containments for light-water cooled nuclear power plants in the United States. One study is for a Boiling-Water Reactor (BWR) and the second is for a Pressurized-Water Reactor (PWR). Research and testing programs for determining the ultimate pressure capacity and failure mechanisms for containments under severe loading conditions and studies for extending the life of current plants beyond the present 40-year licensed lifetime are under way. This paper presents an overview of containment designs in the United States. Also presented are a discussion of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (ASME Code) and regulatory authority requirements for the design, construction, inservice inspection, leakage testing and repair of steel and concrete containments. Findings for containments from the pilot PLEX studies and continuing containment integrity research and testing programs are discussed. The ASME Code and regulatory requirements together with recommendations from the PLEX studies and containment integrity research and testing provide a basis for continued containment long-term operational integrity. (orig./GL)

  9. Long term results of compression sclerotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labas, P; Ohradka, B; Cambal, M; Reis, R; Fillo, J

    2003-01-01

    To compare the short and long term results of different techniques of compression sclerotherapy. In the past 10 years the authors treated 1622 pts due to chronic venous insufficiency. There were 3 groups of patients: 1) Pts treated by Sigg's technique using Aethoxysclerol, 2) Pts treated by Fegan's technique with Fibrovein, and 3) Pts treated by Fegan's procedure, but using a combination of both sclerosants. In all cases, the techniques of empty vein, bubble air, uninterrupted 6-week compression and forced mobilisation were used. In the group of pats. treated by Sigg's procedure, the average cure rate was 67.47% after 6 months, 60.3% after 5 years of follow-up. In Fegan's group this rate was 83.6% after 6 months and 78.54% after 5 year assessment. Statistically, significant differences were found only by the disappearance of varices and reduction of pain in favour of Fegan's technique. In the group of pts treated by Fegan's (Aethoxysclerol + Fibrovein) this rate after 5 years was 86%. The only statistically significant difference was found by the disappearance of varices in favour of Fegan's technique using a combination of 2 detergent sclerosants. Sclerotherapy is effective when properly executed in any length of vein no matter how dilated it has become. The recurrences are attributed more to inadequate technique than to the shortcoming of the procedure. Sclerotherapy is miniinvasive, with few complications, and can be repeated on out-patient basis. (Tab. 1, Ref. 22.).

  10. Transuranic waste: long-term planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, K.C.

    1985-07-01

    Societal concerns for the safe handling and disposal of toxic waste are behind many of the regulations and the control measures in effect today. Transuranic waste, a specific category of toxic (radioactive) waste, serves as a good example of how regulations and controls impact changes in waste processing - and vice versa. As problems would arise with waste processing, changes would be instituted. These changes improved techniques for handling and disposal of transuranic waste, reduced the risk of breached containment, and were usually linked with regulatory changes. Today, however, we face a greater public awareness of and concern for toxic waste control; thus, we must anticipate potential problems and work on resolving them before they can become real problems. System safety analyses are valuable aids in long-term planning for operations involving transuranic as well as other toxic materials. Examples of specific system safety analytical methods demonstrate how problems can be anticipated and resolution initiated in a timely manner having minimal impacts upon allocation of resource and operational goals. 7 refs., 1 fig