The dynamical landscape of marine phytoplankton diversity

Science.gov (United States)

Lévy, Marina; Jahn, Oliver; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Follows, Michael J.; d'Ovidio, Francesco

2015-01-01

Observations suggest that the landscape of marine phytoplankton assemblage might be strongly heterogeneous at the dynamical mesoscale and submesoscale (10–100 km, days to months), with potential consequences in terms of global diversity and carbon export. But these variations are not well documented as synoptic taxonomic data are difficult to acquire. Here, we examine how phytoplankton assemblage and diversity vary between mesoscale eddies and submesoscale fronts. We use a multi-phytoplankton numerical model embedded in a mesoscale flow representative of the North Atlantic. Our model results suggest that the mesoscale flow dynamically distorts the niches predefined by environmental contrasts at the basin scale and that the phytoplankton diversity landscape varies over temporal and spatial scales that are one order of magnitude smaller than those of the basin-scale environmental conditions. We find that any assemblage and any level of diversity can occur in eddies and fronts. However, on a statistical level, the results suggest a tendency for larger diversity and more fast-growing types at fronts, where nutrient supplies are larger and where populations of adjacent water masses are constantly brought into contact; and lower diversity in the core of eddies, where water masses are kept isolated long enough to enable competitive exclusion. PMID:26400196

Landscape matrix mediates occupancy dynamics of Neotropical avian insectivores

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Christina M.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Neel, Maile C.; Fagan, William F.; Marpa, Peter P.

2011-01-01

In addition to patch-level attributes (i.e., area and isolation), the nature of land cover between habitat patches (the matrix) may drive colonization and extinction dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Despite a long-standing recognition of matrix effects in fragmented systems, an understanding of the relative impacts of different types of land cover on patterns and dynamics of species occurrence remains limited. We employed multi-season occupancy models to determine the relative influence of patch area, patch isolation, within-patch vegetation structure, and landscape matrix on occupancy dynamics of nine Neotropical nsectivorous birds in 99 forest patches embedded in four matrix types (agriculture, suburban evelopment, bauxite mining, and forest) in central Jamaica. We found that within-patch vegetation structure and the matrix type between patches were more important than patch area and patch isolation in determining local colonization and local extinction probabilities, and that the effects of patch area, isolation, and vegetation structure on occupancy dynamics tended to be matrix and species dependent. Across the avian community, the landscape matrix influenced local extinction more than local colonization, indicating that extinction processes, rather than movement, likely drive interspecific differences in occupancy dynamics. These findings lend crucial empirical support to the hypothesis that species occupancy dynamics in fragmented systems may depend greatly upon the landscape context.

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Thomas; Olson, K.A.; Dressler, G.; Leimgruber, Peter; Fuller, Todd K.; Nicholson, Craig; Novaro, A.J.; Bolgeri, M.J.; Wattles, David W.; DeStefano, Stephen; Calabrese, J.M.; Fagan, William F.

2011-01-01

Aim  To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species.Locations  Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.Methods  We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity.Results  Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape.Main conclusions�

How long-term dynamics of sediment subduction controls short-term dynamics of seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Brizzi, S.; van Zelst, I.; van Dinther, Y.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.

2017-12-01

Most of the world's greatest earthquakes occur along the subduction megathrust. Weak and porous sediments have been suggested to homogenize the plate interface and thereby promote lateral rupture propagation and great earthquakes. However, the importance of sediment thickness, let alone their physical role, is not yet unequivocally established. Based on a multivariate statistical analysis of a global database of 62 subduction segments, we confirm that sediment thickness is one of the key parameters controlling the maximum magnitude a megathrust can generate. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations highlighted that the occurrence of great earthquakes on sediment-rich subduction segments is very unlikely (p-value≪0.05) related to pure chance. To understand how sediments in the subduction channel regulate earthquake size, this study extends and demystifies multivariate, spatiotemporally limited data through numerical modeling. We use the 2D Seismo-Thermo-Mechanical modeling approach to simulate both the long- and short-term dynamics of subduction and related seismogenesis (van Dinther et al., JGR, 2013). These models solve for the conservation of mass, momentum and energy using a visco-elasto-plastic rheology with rate-dependent friction. Results show that subducted sediments have a strong influence on the long-term evolution of the convergent margin. Increasing the sediment thickness on the incoming plate from 0 to 6 km causes a decrease of slab dip from 23° to 10°. This, in addition to increased radiogenic heating, extends isotherms, thereby widening the seismogenic portion of the megathrust from 80 to 150 km. Consequently, over tens of thousands of years, we observe that the maximum moment magnitude of megathrust earthquakes increases from 8.2 to 9.2 for these shallower and warmer interfaces. In addition, we observe more and larger splay faults, which could enhance vertical seafloor displacements. These results highlight the primary role of subducted sediments in

Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

Science.gov (United States)

Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M.

1984-01-01

The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

Colonizing Dynamic Alluvial and Coastal Landscapes in the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Kidder, T.; Liu, X.; Ervin, K.

2017-12-01

Throughout the Holocene humans have had to adapt to dynamic, rapidly changing alluvial and coastal landscapes. Understanding when people inhabit a given environment is an important starting point for exploring human adaptations, but increasingly we need to consider how, and especially why certain environments are used—or not used— so we can understand the consequences of these human actions. Using four case studies—one from the Yellow River Valley, China, one from coastal Jiangsu, China, one from the Mississippi River Valley (Mississippi, USA) and one from the Mississippi River delta (Louisiana , USA)—we develop a model of how humans at various stages of cultural development colonize new environments. Using archaeological data and ecological modeling we investigate the relationship between the timing of landscape colonization and the ecological richness and predictability of any given environment. As new landscapes emerge and mature humans adopt different strategies for exploiting these novel environments that begins with episodic use and increasingly shifts to stable, long-term habitation. The early phase of landscape colonization appears to be the most significant period because it shapes human environmental practices and sets each culture on a trajectory of socio-cultural development. Thus, human-environment interaction is a critical part of the emergence of cultural patterns that shapes the past, present, and even the future.

Simulation of long-term dynamic behavior of runaway electrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yulei; Liu Jian; Zhang Ruili; He Yang

2015-01-01

The secular dynamics of runaway electrons in Tokamak electromagnetic field is studied. The radiation effect is added into a relativistic volume-preserving algorithm to gain long-term stability of calculation. The results shows that the method we used is able to reveal the behavior of a runaway electron in configuration space. (author)

Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2008-12-01

Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width

Long-Term Forest Dynamics and Land-Use Abandonment in the Mediterranean Mountains, Corsica, France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Almudena San Roman Sanz

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Human practices have had an impact on Mediterranean ecosystems for millennia, particularly through agricultural and pastoral activities. Since the mid-19th century, land-use abandonment has led to the expansion of shrubland and forest, especially in the mountainous areas of the northern Mediterranean basin. Knowledge of these factors is vital to understanding present forest patterns and predicting future forest dynamics in the Mediterranean mountains. We aimed to analyze and understand how land-use abandonment affected spatial modifications of landscapes in two study areas, 44,000 ha and 60,000 ha, located on the island of Corsica, France, representing a typical Mediterranean environment with chestnut forests. Our approach used land-cover archive documents from 1774, 1913, 1975, and 2000, and human population history, 1770 to present day, to describe landscape patterns following land-use abandonment. This research showed that dramatic changes in landscape at the two study areas were caused by the suspension of human influence and the interruption of traditional farming practices. Over the study period, both study sites showed significant reforestation of shrubland and cultivated areas marked by the presence of Quercus ilex forests (+3.40% yr-1 between 1975 and 2000 and by Pinus pinaster (+3.00% yr-1 between 1975 and 2000 at one study site that had experienced heavy rural exodus. At the same time, areas containing chestnut forests decreased by 50% between 1774 and 2000 (-0.09% yr-1 between 1774 and 1975 and -1.42% yr-1 between 1975 and 2000. Shrubland expansion remained limited at both study sites. Our study highlights the value of small-scale approaches for understanding the ecological consequences of land-use abandonment and present and future land-management decisions. Discussion concludes on the importance of working with long-term series for studies on resilience in social-ecological systems and on the consequences in terms of provision of

Soil erosion dynamics response to landscape pattern

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouyang, W.; Skidmore, A.K.; Hao, F.; Wang, T.

2010-01-01

Simulating soil erosion variation with a temporal land use database reveals long-term fluctuations in landscape patterns, as well as priority needs for soil erosion conservation. The application of a multi-year land use database in support of a Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) led to an accurate

Surviving in Changing Seascapes: Sediment Dynamics as Bottleneck for Long-Term Seagrass Presence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Suykerbuyk, W.; Bouma, T.J.; Govers, L.L.; Giesen, K.; de Jong, D.J.; Herman, P.M.J.; Hendriks, J.; van Katwijk, M.M.

2016-01-01

Changes in the seascape often result in altered hydrodynamics that lead to coinciding changes in sediment dynamics. Little is known on how altered sediment dynamics affect long-term seagrass persistence. We studied the thresholds of sediment dynamics in relation to seagrass presence by comparing

Long-term dynamics of the hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius and its relationship with vegetation structure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ameloot, Els; Verheyen, Kris; Bakker, Jan P.; De Vries, Yzaak; Hermy, Martin

2006-01-01

Questions: 1. How are the long-term dynamics of the root hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius related to vegetation structure, grassland management and climate? 2. Does R. angustifolius have a long-term impact on standing crop and community composition? Location: A formerly fertilized grassland,

Dynamic Gene-Resource Landscape Management of Norway Spruce: Combining Utilization and Conservation

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Milan Lstibůrek

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Traditional gene-resource management programs for forest trees are long-term endeavors requiring sustained organizational commitment covering extensive landscapes. While successful in maintaining adaptation, genetic diversity and capturing traditional growth attributes gains, these programs are dependent on rigid methods requiring elaborate mating schemes, thus making them slow in coping with climate change challenges. Here, we review the significance of Norway spruce in the boreal region and its current management practices. Next, we discuss opportunities offered by novel technologies and, with the use of computer simulations, we propose and evaluate a dynamic landscape gene-resource management in Norway. Our suggested long-term management approach capitalizes on: (1 existing afforestation activities, natural crosses, and DNA-based pedigree assembly to create structured pedigree for evaluation, thus traditional laborious control crosses are avoided and (2 landscape level genetic evaluation, rather than localized traditional progeny trials, allowing for screening of adapted individuals across multiple environmental gradients under changing climate. These advantages lead to greater genetic response to selection in adaptive traits without the traditional breeding and testing scheme, facilitating conservation of genetic resources within the breeding population of the most important forest tree species in Norway. The use of in situ selection from proven material exposed to realistic conditions over vast territories has not been conducted in forestry before. Our proposed approach is in contrast to worldwide current programs, where genetic evaluation is constrained by the range of environments where testing is conducted, which may be insufficient to capture the broad environmental variation necessary to tackle adaptation under changing climate.

Synaptic scaling enables dynamically distinct short- and long-term memory formation.

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Christian Tetzlaff

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling - a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis - combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes.

Synaptic scaling enables dynamically distinct short- and long-term memory formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tetzlaff, Christian; Kolodziejski, Christoph; Timme, Marc; Tsodyks, Misha; Wörgötter, Florentin

2013-10-01

Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling - a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis - combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes.

A landscape analysis plan

Science.gov (United States)

Nancy E. Fleenor

2002-01-01

A Landscape Analysis Plan (LAP) sets out broad guidelines for project development within boundaries of the Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystems Project. The plan must be a dynamic, living document, subject to change as new information arises over the course of this very long-term project (several decades). Two watersheds, each of 32,000 acres, were dedicated to...

Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2015-04-01

The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

Research priorities for grassland science: the need of long term integrated experiments networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Lemaire

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Grasslands have to be considered not only as a mean for providing foods for domestic herbivore but also as an important biome of terrestrial biosphere. This function of grasslands as an active component of our environment requires specific studies on the role and impact of this ecosystem on soil erosion and soil quality, quality and quantity of water resources, atmosphere composition and greenhouse gas emission or sequestration, biodiversity dynamics at different scales from field plot to landscape. All these functions have to be evaluated in conjunction with the function of providing animal products for increasing human population. So multifunctionality of grasslands become a new paradigm for grassland science. Environmental and biodiversity outputs require long term studies, being the long term retro-active processes within soil, vegetation and micro-organism communities in relation to changes in management programme. So grassland science needs to carry on long term integrated experimentation for studying all the environmental outputs and ecological services associated to grassland management systems.

System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

2015-09-15

With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Badlands: A parallel basin and landscape dynamics model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Salles

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Over more than three decades, a number of numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs have been developed to study the combined effects of climate, sea-level, tectonics and sediments on Earth surface dynamics. Most of them are written in efficient programming languages, but often cannot be used on parallel architectures. Here, I present a LEM which ports a common core of accepted physical principles governing landscape evolution into a distributed memory parallel environment. Badlands (acronym for BAsin anD LANdscape DynamicS is an open-source, flexible, TIN-based landscape evolution model, built to simulate topography development at various space and time scales.

Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

Science.gov (United States)

Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

2011-01-01

Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

Science.gov (United States)

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

Climate-vegetation-fire interactions and their impact on long-term carbon dynamics in a boreal peatland landscape in northern Manitoba, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Camill, Philip; Barry, Ann; Williams, Evie; Andreassi, Christian; Limmer, Jacob; Solick, Donald

2009-12-01

Climate warming may increase the size and frequency of fires in the boreal biome, possibly causing greater carbon release that amplifies warming. However, in peatlands, vegetation change may also control long-term fire and carbon accumulation, confounding simple relationships between climate, fire, and carbon accumulation. Using 17 peat cores dating to 8000 cal years B.P. from northern Manitoba, Canada, we addressed the following questions: (1) Do past climate changes correlate with shifts in peatland vegetation? (2) What is the relationship between peatland vegetation and fire severity? (3) What is the mean return interval for boreal peat fires, and how does it change across fires of different severities? (4) How does fire severity affect carbon accumulation rates? (5) Do fire and long-term carbon accumulation change directly in response to climate or indirectly though climate-driven changes in vegetation? We measured carbon accumulation rates, fire severity, and return intervals using macroscopic charcoal and changes in vegetation using macrofossils. Climate and vegetation changes covaried, with shifts from wetter fen to drier, forested bog communities during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). Fires became more severe following the shift to forested bogs, with fire severity peaking after 4000 cal years B.P. rather than during the HTM. Rising fire severity, in turn, was correlated with a significant decrease in carbon accumulation from ˜6000 to 2000 cal years B.P. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age affected vegetation composition and permafrost, further impacting fire and carbon accumulation. Our results indicate that long-term changes in fire and carbon dynamics are mediated by climate-driven changes in vegetation.

Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in dynamic landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Brose, Ulrich; Hillebrand, Helmut

2016-01-01

The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) and its consequence for ecosystem services has predominantly been studied by controlled, short-term and small-scale experiments under standardized environmental conditions and constant community compositions. However, changes in biodiversity occur in real-world ecosystems with varying environments and a dynamic community composition. In this theme issue, we present novel research on BEF in such dynamic communities. The contributions are organized in three sections on BEF relationships in (i) multi-trophic diversity, (ii) non-equilibrium biodiversity under disturbance and varying environmental conditions, and (iii) large spatial and long temporal scales. The first section shows that multi-trophic BEF relationships often appear idiosyncratic, while accounting for species traits enables a predictive understanding. Future BEF research on complex communities needs to include ecological theory that is based on first principles of species-averaged body masses, stoichiometry and effects of environmental conditions such as temperature. The second section illustrates that disturbance and varying environments have direct as well as indirect (via changes in species richness, community composition and species' traits) effects on BEF relationships. Fluctuations in biodiversity (species richness, community composition and also trait dominance within species) can severely modify BEF relationships. The third section demonstrates that BEF at larger spatial scales is driven by different variables. While species richness per se and community biomass are most important, species identity effects and community composition are less important than at small scales. Across long temporal scales, mass extinctions represent severe changes in biodiversity with mixed effects on ecosystem functions. Together, the contributions of this theme issue identify new research frontiers and answer some open questions on BEF relationships

The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fouquet, Roger [London School of Economics and Political Science (United Kingdom); Schubert, E. Fred [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States)

2017-11-01

Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.

Long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean surface layer (by space data)

Science.gov (United States)

Shevyrnogov, A.; Vysotskaya, G.

To preserve the biosphere and to use it efficiently, it is necessary to gain a deep insight into the dynamics of the primary production process on our planet. Variability of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean is one of the most important components of this process. These investigations are, however, very labor-consuming, because of the difficulties related to the accessibility of the water surface and its large size. In this work long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration in the surface layer of the ocean have been analyzed on the basis of the CZCS data for 7.5 years from 1979 to 1986 and the SeaWiFS data from 1997 to 2004. It has been shown that the average chlorophyll concentration calculated in all investigated areas varies moderately. However, when analyzing spatially local trends, the areas have been detected that have significant rise and fall of chlorophyll concentrations. Some interesting features of the long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration have been found. The opposite directions of long-term trends (essential increase or decrease) cannot be explained only by large-scale hydrological phenomena in the ocean (currents, upwellings, etc.). The measured chlorophyll concentration results from the balance between production and destruction processes. Which process dominates is determined by various hydrophysical, hydrobiological, and climatic processes, leading to sharp rises or falls of the concentration. It is important to estimate the scale of the areas in which this or that process dominates. Therefore, the study addresses not only the dynamics of the mean value but also the dynamics of the areas in which the dominance of certain factors has led to a sharp fall or rise in chlorophyll concentration. Thus, the obtained results can be used to estimate long-term changes in the ocean biota.

Biogeochemical cycles of Chernobyl-born radionuclides in the contaminated forest ecosystems: long-term dynamics of the migration processes

Science.gov (United States)

Shcheglov, Alexey; Tsvetnova, Ol'ga; Klyashtorin, Alexey

2013-04-01

Biogeochemical migration is a dominant factor of the radionuclide transport through the biosphere. In the early XX century, V.I. Vernadskii, a Russian scientist known, noted about a special role living things play in transport and accumulation of natural radionuclide in various environments. The role of biogeochemical processes in migration and redistribution of technogenic radionuclides is not less important. In Russia, V. M. Klechkovskii and N.V. Timofeev-Ressovskii showed some important biogeochemical aspects of radionuclide migration by the example of global fallout and Kyshtym accident. Their followers, R.M. Alexakhin, M.A. Naryshkin, N.V. Kulikov, F.A. Tikhomirov, E.B. Tyuryukanova, and others also contributed a lot to biogeochemistry of radionuclides. In the post-Chernobyl period, this area of knowledge received a lot of data that allowed building the radioactive element balance and flux estimation in various biogeochemical cycles [Shcheglov et al., 1999]. Regrettably, many of recent radioecological studies are only focused on specific radionuclide fluxes or pursue some applied tasks, missing the holistic approach. Most of the studies consider biogeochemical fluxes of radioactive isotopes in terms of either dose estimation or radionuclide migration rates in various food chains. However, to get a comprehensive picture and develop a reliable forecast of environmental, ecological, and social consequences of radioactive pollution in a vast contaminated area, it is necessary to investigate all the radionuclide fluxes associated with the biogeochemical cycles in affected ecosystems. We believe such an integrated approach would be useful to study long-term environmental consequences of the Fukushima accident as well. In our long-term research, we tried to characterize the flux dynamics of the Chernobyl-born radionuclides in the contaminated forest ecosystems and landscapes as a part of the integrated biogeochemical process. Our field studies were started in June of

Long term stability of power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

1994-12-31

Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

Probing the Gaps: A Synthesis of Well-known and Lesser-known Hydrological Feedbacks Influencing Vegetation Patterning and Long-term Geomorphic Change in Low-gradient Fluvial Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, L.; Christensen, A.; Harvey, J. W.; Ma, H.; Newman, S.; Saunders, C.; Twilley, R.

2017-12-01

Emergence of vegetation patterning in fluvial landscapes is a classic example of how autogenic processes can drive long term fluvial and geomorphic adjustments in aquatic ecosystems. Studies elucidating the physics of flow through vegetation patches have produced understanding of how patterning in topography and vegetation commonly emerges and what effect it has on long term geomorphic change. However, with regard to mechanisms underlying pattern existence and resilience, several knowledge gaps remain, including the role of landscape-scale flow-vegetation feedbacks, feedbacks that invoke additional biogeochemical or biological agents, and determination of the relative importance of autogenic processes relative to external drivers. Here we provide a synthesis of the processes over a range of scales known to drive vegetation patterning and sedimentation in low gradient fluvial landscapes, emphasizing recent field and modeling studies in the Everglades, FL and Wax Lake Delta, LA that address these gaps. In the Everglades, while flow routing and sediment redistribution at the patch scale is known to be a primary driver of vegetation pattern emergence, landscape-scale routing of flow, as driven by the landscape's connectivity, can set up positive feedbacks that influence the rate of pattern degradation. Recent flow release experiments reveal that an additional feedback, involving phosphorus concentrations, flow, and floating vegetation communities that are abundant under low phosphorus, low flow conditions further stabilizes the alternative landscape states established through local scale sediment redistribution. Biogeochemistry-vegetation-sediment feedbacks may also be important for geomorphic development of newly emerging landscapes such as the Wax Lake Delta. There, fine sediment deposition shapes hydrogeomorphic zones with vegetation patterns that stimulate the growth of biofilm, while biofilm characteristics override the physical characteristics of vegetation

Arid landscape dynamics along a precipitation gradient: addressing vegetation - landscape structure - resource interactions at different time scales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buis, E.

2008-01-01

This research is entitled ‘Arid landscape dynamics along a precipitation gradient: addressing
vegetation – landscape structure – resource interactions at different time scales’ with as subtitle
‘A case study for the Northern Negev Desert of Israel’. Landscape dynamics describes the

Long-term social dynamics drive loss of function in pathogenic bacteria

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breum Andersen, Sandra; Marvig, Rasmus Lykke; Molin, Søren

2015-01-01

Laboratory experiments show that social interactions between bacterial cells can drive evolutionary change at the population level, but significant challenges limit attempts to assess the relevance of these findings to natural populations, where selection pressures are unknown. We have increasingly...... sophisticated methods for monitoring phenotypic and genotypic dynamics in bacteria causing infectious disease, but in contrast, we lack evidence-based adaptive explanations for those changes. Evolutionary change during infection is often interpreted as host adaptation, but this assumption neglects to consider...... social dynamics shown to drive evolutionary change in vitro. We provide evidence to show that long-term behavioral dynamics observed in a pathogen are driven by selection to outcompete neighboring conspecific cells through social interactions. We find that Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteria, causing lung...

Modeling Coupled Landscape Evolution and Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics in Intensively Management Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Q.; Kumar, P.

2017-12-01

Soil is the largest reservoir of carbon in the biosphere but in agricultural areas it is going through rapid erosion due disturbance arising from crop harvest, tillage, and tile drainage. Identifying whether the production of soil organic carbon (SOC) from the crops can compensate for the loss due to erosion is critical to ensure our food security and adapt to climate change. In the U.S. Midwest where large areas of land are intensively managed for agriculture practices, predicting soil quantity and quality are critical for maintaining crop yield and other Critical Zone services. This work focuses on modeling the coupled landscape evolutions soil organic carbon dynamics in agricultural fields. It couples landscape evolution, surface water runoff, organic matter transformation, and soil moisture dynamics to understand organic carbon gain and loss due to natural forcing and farming practices, such as fertilizer application and tillage. A distinctive feature of the model is the coupling of surface ad subsurface processes that predicts both surficial changes and transport along with the vertical transport and dynamics. Our results show that landscape evolution and farming practices play dominant roles in soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics both above- and below-ground. Contrary to the common assumption that a vertical profile of SOC concentration decreases exponentially with depth, we find that in many situations SOC concentration below-ground could be higher than that at the surface. Tillage plays a complex role in organic matter dynamics. On one hand, tillage would accelerate the erosion rate, on the other hand, it would improve carbon storage by burying surface SOC into below ground. Our model consistently reproduces the observed above- and below-ground patterns of SOC in the field sites of Intensively Managed Landscapes Critical Zone Observatory (IMLCZO). This model bridges the gaps between the landscape evolution, below- and above-ground hydrologic cycle, and

Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

Science.gov (United States)

Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

2012-06-01

Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

Patient Specific Characteristic of Brain Dynamic in Interpretation of Long Term EEG Analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Komárek, V.; Paluš, Milan; Hrnčíř, Z.

2004-01-01

Roč. 45, Suppl. 3 (2004), s. 51 ISSN 0013-9580. [European Congress on Epileptology /6./. 30.05.2004-03.06.2004, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 701 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1030915 Keywords : brain dynamic * long term EEG analysis Subject RIV: FH - Neurology

Andra long term memory project - 59277

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charton, Patrick; Boissier, Fabrice; Martin, Guillaume

2012-01-01

Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Long term memory of repositories is required by safety, reversibility and social expectations. Thus Andra has implemented since 2010 a long-term memory project to reinforce and diversify its current arrangements in this field, as well as to explore opportunities to extend memory keeping over thousands years. The project includes opportunity studies of dedicated facilities. The 'Ecotheque' and 'Geotheque' projects contribute to memory respectively through environmental and geological samples preservation. The options of creating (i) an archive centre for Andra's interim and permanent archives, (ii) an artist center to study the contribution of arts to memory preservation, (iii) a museum of radioactive waste disposal history and technology (radium industry..., sea disposal, current solutions...) are considered. Other studies provided by the project examine our heritage. This includes the continuity of languages and symbolic systems, the continuity of writing and engraving methods, the archaeology of landscapes (memory of the earths evolution, multi-century memory of industrial and agricultural landscapes), the archaeology practices (how might a future archaeologist be interested in our current activity?), the preservation of historical sites and industrial memory, the continuity of institutional organizations, the memory and history of science evolution as well as broad history

Fractional-order leaky integrate-and-fire model with long-term memory and power law dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Teka, Wondimu W; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Mondal, Argha

2017-09-01

Pyramidal neurons produce different spiking patterns to process information, communicate with each other and transform information. These spiking patterns have complex and multiple time scale dynamics that have been described with the fractional-order leaky integrate-and-Fire (FLIF) model. Models with fractional (non-integer) order differentiation that generalize power law dynamics can be used to describe complex temporal voltage dynamics. The main characteristic of FLIF model is that it depends on all past values of the voltage that causes long-term memory. The model produces spikes with high interspike interval variability and displays several spiking properties such as upward spike-frequency adaptation and long spike latency in response to a constant stimulus. We show that the subthreshold voltage and the firing rate of the fractional-order model make transitions from exponential to power law dynamics when the fractional order α decreases from 1 to smaller values. The firing rate displays different types of spike timing adaptation caused by changes on initial values. We also show that the voltage-memory trace and fractional coefficient are the causes of these different types of spiking properties. The voltage-memory trace that represents the long-term memory has a feedback regulatory mechanism and affects spiking activity. The results suggest that fractional-order models might be appropriate for understanding multiple time scale neuronal dynamics. Overall, a neuron with fractional dynamics displays history dependent activities that might be very useful and powerful for effective information processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of a temperate deciduous forest under landscape-scale management: Implications for adaptability to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew G. Olson; Benjamin O. Knapp; John M. Kabrick

2017-01-01

Landscape forest management is an approach to meeting diverse objectives that collectively span multiple spatial scales. It is critical that we understand the long-term effects of landscape management on the structure and composition of forest tree communities to ensure that these practices are sustainable. Furthermore, it is increasingly important to also consider...

Long-Term Fire Regime Estimated from Soil Charcoal in Coastal Temperate Rainforests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ken Lertzman

2002-12-01

Full Text Available Coastal temperate rainforests from southeast Alaska through to southern Oregon are ecologically distinct from forests of neighboring regions, which have a drier, or more continental, climate and disturbance regimes dominated by fires. The long-term role of fire remains one of the key outstanding sources of uncertainty in the historical dynamics of the wetter and less seasonal forests that dominate the northerly two thirds of the rainforest region in British Columbia and Alaska. Here, we describe the long-term fire regime in two forests on the south coast of British Columbia by means of 244 AMS radiocarbon dates of charcoal buried in forest soils. In both forests, some sites have experienced no fire over the last 6000 years and many other sites have experienced only one or two fires during that time. Intervals between fires vary from a few centuries to several thousand years. In contrast to other conifer forests, this supports a model of forest dynamics where fires are of minor ecological importance. Instead, forest history is dominated by fine-scale processes of disturbance and recovery that maintain an ubiquitous late-successional character over the forest landscape. This has significant implications for ecosystem-based forest management and our understanding of carbon storage in forest soils.

Long-Term Dynamic Monitoring of the Historical Masonry FAÇADE: the Case of Palazzo Ducale in Venice, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, J.; Russo, S.

2017-08-01

Long-term dynamic monitoring of the masonry façade of Palazzo Ducale known as Doge's palace in Venice, Italy was performed from September 2010 to October 2012. This article demonstrates the results of preliminary analysis on the data set of the first 12-month long monitoring campaign for out-of-plumb dynamic responses of the medieval façade of the monument. The aim of the analysis of the dynamic signals is to validate the data set and investigate dynamic characteristics of the vibration signature of the historical masonry wall in the long-term. Palazzo Ducale is a heavily visited heritage due to its high cultural importance and architectural value. Nevertheless, little is known about the dynamic behaviour of the double-leaf masonry façade. In this study, the dynamic properties of the structure are presented by dynamic identification carried out with the effect of the ambient vibration measured at four different locations on the façade and portico level. The trend and intensity of the vibration at each measurement locations are identified over the year. In addition, the issue on eliminating the noise blended in the signals for reliable analysis are also discussed.

Multiple coupled landscapes and non-adiabatic dynamics with applications to self-activating genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Cong; Zhang, Kun; Feng, Haidong; Sasai, Masaki; Wang, Jin

2015-11-21

Many physical, chemical and biochemical systems (e.g. electronic dynamics and gene regulatory networks) are governed by continuous stochastic processes (e.g. electron dynamics on a particular electronic energy surface and protein (gene product) synthesis) coupled with discrete processes (e.g. hopping among different electronic energy surfaces and on and off switching of genes). One can also think of the underlying dynamics as the continuous motion on a particular landscape and discrete hoppings among different landscapes. The main difference of such systems from the intra-landscape dynamics alone is the emergence of the timescale involved in transitions among different landscapes in addition to the timescale involved in a particular landscape. The adiabatic limit when inter-landscape hoppings are fast compared to continuous intra-landscape dynamics has been studied both analytically and numerically, but the analytical treatment of the non-adiabatic regime where the inter-landscape hoppings are slow or comparable to continuous intra-landscape dynamics remains challenging. In this study, we show that there exists mathematical mapping of the dynamics on 2(N) discretely coupled N continuous dimensional landscapes onto one single landscape in 2N dimensional extended continuous space. On this 2N dimensional landscape, eddy current emerges as a sign of non-equilibrium non-adiabatic dynamics and plays an important role in system evolution. Many interesting physical effects such as the enhancement of fluctuations, irreversibility, dissipation and optimal kinetics emerge due to non-adiabaticity manifested by the eddy current illustrated for an N = 1 self-activator. We further generalize our theory to the N-gene network with multiple binding sites and multiple synthesis rates for discretely coupled non-equilibrium stochastic physical and biological systems.

Short- and long-term variations in non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to investigate the short- and long-term variations in the non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability, and to determine the relationships between conventional time and frequency domain methods and the newer non-linear methods of characterizing heart rate...... rate and describes mainly linear correlations. Non-linear predictability is correlated with heart rate variability measured as the standard deviation of the R-R intervals and the respiratory activity expressed as power of the high-frequency band. The dynamics of heart rate variability changes suddenly...

Imaging groundwater infiltration dynamics in the karst vadose zone with long-term ERT monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Watlet, Arnaud; Kaufmann, Olivier; Triantafyllou, Antoine; Poulain, Amaël; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Meldrum, Philip I.; Wilkinson, Paul B.; Hallet, Vincent; Quinif, Yves; Van Ruymbeke, Michel; Van Camp, Michel

2018-03-01

Water infiltration and recharge processes in karst systems are complex and difficult to measure with conventional hydrological methods. In particular, temporarily saturated groundwater reservoirs hosted in the vadose zone can play a buffering role in water infiltration. This results from the pronounced porosity and permeability contrasts created by local karstification processes of carbonate rocks. Analyses of time-lapse 2-D geoelectrical imaging over a period of 3 years at the Rochefort Cave Laboratory (RCL) site in south Belgium highlight variable hydrodynamics in a karst vadose zone. This represents the first long-term and permanently installed electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring in a karst landscape. The collected data were compared to conventional hydrological measurements (drip discharge monitoring, soil moisture and water conductivity data sets) and a detailed structural analysis of the local geological structures providing a thorough understanding of the groundwater infiltration. Seasonal changes affect all the imaged areas leading to increases in resistivity in spring and summer attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration, whereas winter is characterised by a general decrease in resistivity associated with a groundwater recharge of the vadose zone. Three types of hydrological dynamics, corresponding to areas with distinct lithological and structural features, could be identified via changes in resistivity: (D1) upper conductive layers, associated with clay-rich soil and epikarst, showing the highest variability related to weather conditions; (D2) deeper and more resistive limestone areas, characterised by variable degrees of porosity and clay contents, hence showing more diffuse seasonal variations; and (D3) a conductive fractured zone associated with damped seasonal dynamics, while showing a great variability similar to that of the upper layers in response to rainfall events. This study provides detailed images of the sources of drip

Crop rotations and poultry litter impact dynamic soil chemical properties and soil biota long-term

Science.gov (United States)

Dynamic soil physiochemical interactions with conservation agricultural practices and soil biota are largely unknown. Therefore, this study aims to quantify long-term (12-yr) impacts of cover crops, poultry litter, crop rotations, and conservation tillage and their interactions on soil physiochemica...

Analysis of the long-term availability of uranium: The influence of dynamic constraints and market competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monnet, Antoine; Gabriel, Sophie; Percebois, Jacques

2017-01-01

Abstract: The availability of natural uranium has a direct impact on the global capability to sustain the demand from nuclear power plants in the coming decades. Therefore, the expansion scenarios of nuclear power should be analysed in conjunction with long-term dynamics of the uranium market. This paper presents three forms of a partial-equilibrium model of the uranium market. All forms consider global demand as exogenous (input scenarios from the literature) and regional estimates of the quantities and the costs of ultimate resources (results obtained from previous work). The three forms differ by the market constraints and the market structure considered. Comparing them highlights the role of the market structure and the impact of some key parameters of the market dynamics on the long-term availability of uranium. An important finding is the influence of two constraints: the anticipation of demand and the significant role played by the correlation between price and exploration expenses in shaping the price trends. In addition, results from simulations highlight different long-term dynamics when the producers are allocated into a limited number of regions (to simulate an oligopoly) compared to a single region (undefined number of players to simulate perfect competition). - Highlights: • The growth rate of demand during the 21st century is a key driver of price trends. • Uncertainties on ultimate resources have a limited impact in expansion scenarios. • The price-exploration correlation is a first-order dynamic constraint. • The anticipation of demand is a strong dynamic constraint related to scarcity rent. • The uranium market is better represented by a constrained oligopoly.

LONG-TERM DYNAMIC MONITORING OF THE HISTORICAL MASONRY FAÇADE: THE CASE OF PALAZZO DUCALE IN VENICE, ITALY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Noh

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Long-term dynamic monitoring of the masonry façade of Palazzo Ducale known as Doge’s palace in Venice, Italy was performed from September 2010 to October 2012. This article demonstrates the results of preliminary analysis on the data set of the first 12-month long monitoring campaign for out-of-plumb dynamic responses of the medieval façade of the monument. The aim of the analysis of the dynamic signals is to validate the data set and investigate dynamic characteristics of the vibration signature of the historical masonry wall in the long-term. Palazzo Ducale is a heavily visited heritage due to its high cultural importance and architectural value. Nevertheless, little is known about the dynamic behaviour of the double-leaf masonry façade. In this study, the dynamic properties of the structure are presented by dynamic identification carried out with the effect of the ambient vibration measured at four different locations on the façade and portico level. The trend and intensity of the vibration at each measurement locations are identified over the year. In addition, the issue on eliminating the noise blended in the signals for reliable analysis are also discussed.

Dynamics of the flood response to slow-fast landscape-climate feedbacks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. A. P. Perdigão

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The dynamical evolution of the flood response to landscape-climate feedbacks is evaluated in a joint nonlinear statistical-dynamical approach. For that purpose, a spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is conducted on hydrological data from 1976–2008 over 804 catchments throughout Austria, and a general, data-independent nonlinear dynamical model is built linking floods with climate (via precipitation, landscape (via elevation and their feedbacks. These involve nonlinear scale interactions, with landform evolution processes taking place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics, and climate adjusting in years to decades (fast dynamics. The results show that floods are more responsive to spatial (regional than to temporal (decadal variability. Catchments from dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal sensitivities (spatiotemporal symmetry and low landscape-climate codependence, suggesting they are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those sensitivities (symmetry breaks and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is an emergent behaviour from nonlinear feedbacks within the system. A new coevolution index is introduced relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities, which need to be taken into account in hydrological space-time trading. Coevolution is expressed here by the interplay between slow and fast dynamics, represented respectively by spatial and temporal characteristics. The dynamical model captures emerging features of the flood dynamics and nonlinear landscape-climate feedbacks, supporting the nonlinear statistical assessment of spatiotemporally asymmetric flood change. Moreover, it enables the dynamical estimation of flood changes in space and time from the given knowledge at different spatiotemporal conditions. This study ultimately brings to light emerging signatures of

Modulation of the erosion rate of an uplifting landscape by long-term climate change: An experimental investigation

Science.gov (United States)

Moussirou, Bérangé; Bonnet, Stéphane

2018-02-01

Whether or not climatic variations play a major role in setting the erosion rate of continental landscapes is a key factor in demonstrating the influence of climate on the tectonic evolution of mountain belts and understanding how clastic deposits preserved in sedimentary basins may record climatic variations. Here, we investigate how a change in precipitation influences the erosional dynamics of laboratory-scale landscapes that evolved under a combination of uplift and rainfall forcings. We consider here the impact of a decrease in the precipitation rate of finite duration on the erosive response of a landscape forced by a constant uplift and initially at a steady state (SS1). We performed several experiments with the same amplitude but different durations of precipitation decrease (Tp). We observe that the decrease in precipitation induces a phase of surface uplift of landscapes to a new steady state condition (SS2); however, the details of the uplift histories (timing, rate) differ between the experiments according to Tp. We also observe a decrease in the erosion rate induced by the precipitation change; however, the timing and amplitude of this decrease vary according to Tp, defining a delayed and damped erosion signal. Our data show that the landscape response to precipitation change is dictated by a critical water-to-rock ratio (ratio of precipitation over uplift) that likely corresponds to a geomorphic threshold. Our study suggests that variations in precipitation that occur at a geological time scale (> 106 years) may have a weak impact on the erosion of landscapes and on the delivery of siliciclastic material to large rivers and sedimentary basins.

Position-Invariant Robust Features for Long-Term Recognition of Dynamic Outdoor Scenes

Science.gov (United States)

Kawewong, Aram; Tangruamsub, Sirinart; Hasegawa, Osamu

A novel Position-Invariant Robust Feature, designated as PIRF, is presented to address the problem of highly dynamic scene recognition. The PIRF is obtained by identifying existing local features (i.e. SIFT) that have a wide baseline visibility within a place (one place contains more than one sequential images). These wide-baseline visible features are then represented as a single PIRF, which is computed as an average of all descriptors associated with the PIRF. Particularly, PIRFs are robust against highly dynamical changes in scene: a single PIRF can be matched correctly against many features from many dynamical images. This paper also describes an approach to using these features for scene recognition. Recognition proceeds by matching an individual PIRF to a set of features from test images, with subsequent majority voting to identify a place with the highest matched PIRF. The PIRF system is trained and tested on 2000+ outdoor omnidirectional images and on COLD datasets. Despite its simplicity, PIRF offers a markedly better rate of recognition for dynamic outdoor scenes (ca. 90%) than the use of other features. Additionally, a robot navigation system based on PIRF (PIRF-Nav) can outperform other incremental topological mapping methods in terms of time (70% less) and memory. The number of PIRFs can be reduced further to reduce the time while retaining high accuracy, which makes it suitable for long-term recognition and localization.

Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation*

Science.gov (United States)

Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert

2016-01-01

Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert; Michaelevski, Izhak

2016-02-01

Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

Modeling the influence of long term human-induced land use conversion on sediment fluxes and carbon dynamics at the catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchoms, Samuel; Van Oost, Kristof; Vanacker, Veerle

2014-05-01

Over the past 20 years, there has been increasing evidence of the strong impact of human activities on the landscape, specifically on soil erosion due to the removal of natural vegetation cover for agricultural and urban purposes. The results question the widespread hypothesis of a steady state landscape since it appears that the balance between soil production and erosion may be broken altering the interactions between chemical, physical and biological processes in both soil and landscape system. Yet, the relationship between this accelerated erosion and the carbon dynamics at the landscape scale remains an important area of investigation. Recent attempts to combine geomorphic models, soil redistribution and carbon dynamic has proved themselves valuable in term of supporting the importance of lateral fluxes as a crucial control of carbon dynamic at the landscape scale. We use the SPEROS LT model, a modified version of SPEROS-C which includes dynamic land use and soil physical properties, to assess the impact of historical land use conversion on sediment and carbon fluxes in the Dijle catchment. This particular location has experienced a significant human impact since the Roman period, undergoing heavy deforestation and expansion of agricultural lands followed by a period of abandonment. The last 400 to 500 years saw a dramatic increase in the intensity of land use conversion associated to population growth leading to forest cleaning and urbanization. Our main objective is to validate the combined geomorphic and soil carbon turnover process descriptions of the model. Historical land use proportions are based on existing literature estimations and spatial assignation of the land conversion relies on simple allocation rules based on criteria such as slope or soil texture. Land use scenarios are constructed for the last 2000 years. We confront the model results with observations and perform a sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that the general trends in

Landscape Sustainability in a Sonoran Desert City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris A. Martin

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to discuss concepts of landscape sustainability in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Phoenix is situated in the greater Salt River Valley of the lower Sonoran Desert in the southwest United States. In this paper I use the ecological frameworks of ecosystem services and resiliency as a metric for understanding landscape sustainability. An assessment of landscape sustainability performance benchmarks were made by surveying research findings of scientists affiliated with the Central Arizona Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research Project (CAP LTER. In Phoenix, present day emphases on cultural, aesthetic, and habitat formation ecosystem services within an arid ecoregion of low natural resilience coupled to a complex matrix of socioeconomic stratification, excessive landscape water use and pruning practices has had the undesired effect of degrading landscape sustainability. This has been measured as mixed patterns of plant diversity and human-altered patterns of carbon regulation, microclimate control, and trophic dynamics. In the future, sustainable residential landscaping in desert cities such as Phoenix may be fostered through use of water-conserving irrigation technologies, oasis-style landscape design motifs, recycling of landscape green waste, and conservative plant pruning strategies.

Short- and long-term evolutionary dynamics of bacterial insertion sequences: insights from Wolbachia endosymbionts.

Science.gov (United States)

Cerveau, Nicolas; Leclercq, Sébastien; Leroy, Elodie; Bouchon, Didier; Cordaux, Richard

2011-01-01

Transposable elements (TE) are one of the major driving forces of genome evolution, raising the question of the long-term dynamics underlying their evolutionary success. Long-term TE evolution can readily be reconstructed in eukaryotes, thanks to many degraded copies constituting genomic fossil records of past TE proliferations. By contrast, bacterial genomes usually experience high sequence turnover and short TE retention times, thereby obscuring ancient TE evolutionary patterns. We found that Wolbachia bacterial genomes contain 52-171 insertion sequence (IS) TEs. IS account for 11% of Wolbachia wRi, which is one of the highest IS genomic coverage reported in prokaryotes to date. We show that many IS groups are currently expanding in various Wolbachia genomes and that IS horizontal transfers are frequent among strains, which can explain the apparent synchronicity of these IS proliferations. Remarkably, >70% of Wolbachia IS are nonfunctional. They constitute an unusual bacterial IS genomic fossil record providing direct empirical evidence for a long-term IS evolutionary dynamics following successive periods of intense transpositional activity. Our results show that comprehensive IS annotations have the potential to provide new insights into prokaryote TE evolution and, more generally, prokaryote genome evolution. Indeed, the identification of an important IS genomic fossil record in Wolbachia demonstrates that IS elements are not always of recent origin, contrary to the conventional view of TE evolution in prokaryote genomes. Our results also raise the question whether the abundance of IS fossils is specific to Wolbachia or it may be a general, albeit overlooked, feature of prokaryote genomes.

Simulation of long-term erosion on an abandoned mine site using the SIBERIA landscape evolution model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hancock, G.; Willgoose, G.; Evans, K.

1999-01-01

The SIBERIA catchment evolution model can simulate the evolution of landforms over many years as a result of runoff and erosion. This study discusses testing of the reliability of the erosion predictions of the model in a field study. Using erosion parameters calibrated from field studies of rainfall and runoff from the waste rock dump batters, the SIBERIA landscape evolution model was calibrated and then used to simulate erosion over 50 years on the abandoned Scinto 6 mine site. Scinto 6 is a former uranium mine located in the Kakadu Region, Northern Territory, Australia. The SIBERIA runs simulated the geomorphic development of the gullies on the man-made batters of the waste rock dump. The waste rock of the mine had been dumped in the characteristic pattern of a flat top and steep sided batters typical of many former and current dumps and there had been significant degradation from both sheet and gully erosion. Traditional erosion models cannot model this type of degradation because their erosion model cannot change the landform, while SIBERIA does change the landform. The gully position, depth volume and morphology on the waste rock dump were compared with that of SIBERIA simulations. The geomorphic development of the waste rock dump indicated that SIBERIA can simulate features that arise from the long-term effect of erosion and also their rate of development on a man-made post-mining landscape over periods of up to 50 years. The detailed results of this specific study will be discussed with specific discussion of the type of data required and the implications of the uncertain erosion physics on the reliability of the predictions

Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2017-01-01

The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

Understanding coupled natural and human systems on fire prone landscapes: integrating wildfire simulation into an agent based planning system.

Science.gov (United States)

Barros, Ana; Ager, Alan; Preisler, Haiganoush; Day, Michelle; Spies, Tom; Bolte, John

2015-04-01

Agent-based models (ABM) allow users to examine the long-term effects of agent decisions in complex systems where multiple agents and processes interact. This framework has potential application to study the dynamics of coupled natural and human systems where multiple stimuli determine trajectories over both space and time. We used Envision, a landscape based ABM, to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics in a heterogeneous, multi-owner landscape in Oregon, USA. Landscape dynamics are affected by land management policies, actors decisions, and autonomous processes such as vegetation succession, wildfire, or at a broader scale, climate change. Key questions include: 1) How are landscape dynamics influenced by policies and institutions, and 2) How do land management policies and actor decisions interact to produce intended and unintended consequences with respect to wildfire on fire-prone landscapes. Applying Envision to address these questions required the development of a wildfire module that could accurately simulate wildfires on the heterogeneous landscapes within the study area in terms of replicating historical fire size distribution, spatial distribution and fire intensity. In this paper we describe the development and testing of a mechanistic fire simulation system within Envision and application of the model on a 3.2 million fire prone landscape in central Oregon USA. The core fire spread equations use the Minimum Travel Time algorithm developed by M Finney. The model operates on a daily time step and uses a fire prediction system based on the relationship between energy release component and historical fires. Specifically, daily wildfire probabilities and sizes are generated from statistical analyses of historical fires in relation to daily ERC values. The MTT was coupled with the vegetation dynamics module in Envision to allow communication between the respective subsystem and effectively model fire effects and vegetation dynamics after a wildfire. Canopy and

Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

2014-05-01

Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

Developmental Dynamics of Intergroup Contact and Intergroup Attitudes: Long-Term Effects in Adolescence and Early Adulthood

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wölfer, R.; van Zalk, M.H.W.; Schmid, K.; Hewstone, M.

2016-01-01

Intergroup contact represents a powerful way to improve intergroup attitudes and to overcome prejudice and discrimination. However, long-term effects of intergroup contact that consider social network dynamics have rarely been studied at a young age. Study 1 validated an optimized social network

Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

2014-12-01

Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large

Social Stairs : taking the Piano Staircase towards long-term behavioral change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, M.M.R.; Megens, C.J.P.G.; Hoven, van den E.A.W.H.; Hummels, C.C.M.; Brombacher, A.C.; Berkovsky, S.; Freyne, J.

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the development of Social Stairs, an intelligent musical staircase to change people’s behavior in the long-term to take the stairs in favor of the elevator. Through designing with the Experiential Design Landscape (EDL) method, a design opportunity was found that social

Dynamic and Long-term Linkages among Growth, Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries

OpenAIRE

Katsushi S. Imai; Raghav Gaiha

2014-01-01

Abstract Drawing upon a cross-country panel data for developing countries, the present study sheds new empirical light on dynamic and long-term linkages among growth, inequality and poverty. First, agricultural sector growth is found to be consistently the most important factor in reducing inequality and poverty not only through its direct effects but also through its indirect effects. Second, there is a significant and negative association between inequality and GDP per capita, with macro in...

[Dynamic evolution of landscape spatial pattern in Taihu Lake basin, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fang; Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong

2017-11-01

Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000, 2010 and 2015, the landscape index, dynamic change model, landscape transfer matrix and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the dynamic evolution of the landscape spatial pattern of Taihu Lake basin. The results showed that the landscape type of the basin was dominated by cultivated land and construction land, and the degree of landscape fragmentation was strengthened from 2000 to 2015, and the distribution showed a uniform trend. From the point of transfer dynamic change, the cultivated land and construction land changed significantly, which was reduced by 6761 km 2 (2.1%) and increased by 6615.33 km 2 (8.4%), respectively. From the landscape transfer, it could be seen that the main change direction of the cultivated land reduction was the construction land, and the cultivated land with 7866.30 km 2 was converted into construction land, accounting for 91.6% of the cultivated land change, and the contribution to the construction land was 96.5%. The trend of dynamic changes of cultivated and construction land in the counties and cities was the same as that of the whole Taihu Lake basin. For Shanghai Central Urban, as well as Pudong District, Lin'an City, Baoshan District, Minhang District, Jiading District and Changzhou City, the area of the cultivated land and construction land changed more prominently. However, compared with the CLUE-S model for the landscape pattern change in 2030, the change of cultivated and construction lands would be the largest in the natural development scenario. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of grassland would increase and the dynamic degree would reach 54.5%. Under the situation of cultivated land protection, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land would be decreased.

Integrating landscape ecology and geoinformatics to decipher landscape dynamics for regional planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Dikou, Angela; Papapanagiotou, Evangelos; Troumbis, Andreas

2011-09-01

We used remote sensing and GIS in conjunction with multivariate statistical methods to: (i) quantify landscape composition (land cover types) and configuration (patch density, diversity, fractal dimension, contagion) for five coastal watersheds of Kalloni gulf, Lesvos Island, Greece, in 1945, 1960, 1971, 1990 and 2002/2003, (ii) evaluate the relative importance of physical (slope, geologic substrate, stream order) and human (road network, population density) variables on landscape composition and configuration, and (iii) characterize processes that led to land cover changes through land cover transitions between these five successive periods in time. Distributions of land cover types did not differ among the five time periods at the five watersheds studied because the largest cumulative changes between 1945 and 2002/2003 did not take place at dominant land cover types. Landscape composition related primarily to the physical attributes of the landscape. Nevertheless, increase in population density and the road network were found to increase heterogeneity of the landscape mosaic (patchiness), complexity of patch shape (fractal dimension), and patch disaggregation (contagion). Increase in road network was also found to increase landscape diversity due to the creation of new patches. The main processes involved in land cover changes were plough-land abandonment and ecological succession. Landscape dynamics during the last 50 years corroborate the ecotouristic-agrotouristic model for regional development to reverse trends in agricultural land abandonment and human population decline and when combined with hypothetical regulatory approaches could predict how this landscape could develop in the future, thus, providing a valuable tool to regional planning.

Imaging groundwater infiltration dynamics in the karst vadose zone with long-term ERT monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Watlet

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Water infiltration and recharge processes in karst systems are complex and difficult to measure with conventional hydrological methods. In particular, temporarily saturated groundwater reservoirs hosted in the vadose zone can play a buffering role in water infiltration. This results from the pronounced porosity and permeability contrasts created by local karstification processes of carbonate rocks. Analyses of time-lapse 2-D geoelectrical imaging over a period of 3 years at the Rochefort Cave Laboratory (RCL site in south Belgium highlight variable hydrodynamics in a karst vadose zone. This represents the first long-term and permanently installed electrical resistivity tomography (ERT monitoring in a karst landscape. The collected data were compared to conventional hydrological measurements (drip discharge monitoring, soil moisture and water conductivity data sets and a detailed structural analysis of the local geological structures providing a thorough understanding of the groundwater infiltration. Seasonal changes affect all the imaged areas leading to increases in resistivity in spring and summer attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration, whereas winter is characterised by a general decrease in resistivity associated with a groundwater recharge of the vadose zone. Three types of hydrological dynamics, corresponding to areas with distinct lithological and structural features, could be identified via changes in resistivity: (D1 upper conductive layers, associated with clay-rich soil and epikarst, showing the highest variability related to weather conditions; (D2 deeper and more resistive limestone areas, characterised by variable degrees of porosity and clay contents, hence showing more diffuse seasonal variations; and (D3 a conductive fractured zone associated with damped seasonal dynamics, while showing a great variability similar to that of the upper layers in response to rainfall events. This study provides detailed images of

Landscapes of human evolution: models and methods of tectonic geomorphology and the reconstruction of hominin landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Geoffrey N; Reynolds, Sally C; King, Geoffrey C P

2011-03-01

This paper examines the relationship between complex and tectonically active landscapes and patterns of human evolution. We show how active tectonics can produce dynamic landscapes with geomorphological and topographic features that may be critical to long-term patterns of hominin land use, but which are not typically addressed in landscape reconstructions based on existing geological and paleoenvironmental principles. We describe methods of representing topography at a range of scales using measures of roughness based on digital elevation data, and combine the resulting maps with satellite imagery and ground observations to reconstruct features of the wider landscape as they existed at the time of hominin occupation and activity. We apply these methods to sites in South Africa, where relatively stable topography facilitates reconstruction. We demonstrate the presence of previously unrecognized tectonic effects and their implications for the interpretation of hominin habitats and land use. In parts of the East African Rift, reconstruction is more difficult because of dramatic changes since the time of hominin occupation, while fossils are often found in places where activity has now almost ceased. However, we show that original, dynamic landscape features can be assessed by analogy with parts of the Rift that are currently active and indicate how this approach can complement other sources of information to add new insights and pose new questions for future investigation of hominin land use and habitats. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term WWER-440 dynamics in cyclic power output changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petruzela, I.

1989-01-01

Xenon poisoning is one of the main factors limiting the operation of a nuclear power plant with a WWER-440 reactor in the variable load mode, when long-term dynamics applies to cyclic power output changes. An analysis of the xenon poisoning linearized transfer shows that a phase shift of 180deg takes place between the summed-up reactivity change due to a power change and the reactivity change due to xenon poisoning, this for a sine-wave power change with a period of 24 hours. Thus, the requirements are minimized for the change in reactivity of the control elements, and the maximum value can be achieved of released reactivity that can be utilized before the end of the campaign. (B.S.). 6 figs., 4 tabs., 9 refs

Long-term behaviour of radioactive nuclides in the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brechignac, F.; Moberg, L.; Suomela, M.

1999-01-01

Report of recent advances in Europe, regarding the long-term development of radioactive nuclides in the environment. The corresponding scientific findings from three projects - Peace, Landscape and Epora (involving 18 European laboratories) - have been collected together. These projects were managed by the IPSN for the European Commission (DG XII) in the framework of the programme 'Surete de la fission nucleaire' (Nuclear fission safety programme). (author)

Cryopreservation of testicular tissue before long-term testicular cell culture does not alter in vitro cell dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baert, Yoni; Braye, Aude; Struijk, Robin B.; van Pelt, Ans M. M.; Goossens, Ellen

2015-01-01

To assess whether testicular cell dynamics are altered during long-term culture after testicular tissue cryopreservation. Experimental basic science study. Reproductive biology laboratory. Testicular tissue with normal spermatogenesis was obtained from six donors. None. Detection and comparison of

Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

Science.gov (United States)

Crees, Jennifer J.; Li, Zhipeng; Bielby, Jon; Yuan, Jing

2017-01-01

Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives. PMID:29167363

Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gernaat, David E H J; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Van Vliet, Jasper; Sullivan, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J.

2014-01-01

Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the

Insights from the past: incorporating long-term landscape evolution in studies of land degradation

Science.gov (United States)

Ferro-Vazquez, Cruz; Lang, Carol; Kabora, Tabitha; Thornton-Barnett, Senna; Richer, Suzi; Gallello, Gianni; Stump, Daryl

2017-04-01

Modern approaches for assessing land degradation encompass multidisciplinary studies that have allowed a more realistic understanding of the causes and consequences of land degradation. This incipient perspective includes an increasingly important role of the studies of the past, including human history, to understand modern ecosystems and landscapes. Indeed, the current promotion of indigenous resource-use strategies as models of sustainable development was initially prompted by historical studies. However, systematic studies on whether or not indigenous management practices led to land degradation, and therefore their benefits or constraints for sustained use of natural resources, are not truly known. We argue that a joint approach combining the characterization of current soil properties with the archaeological study of traditional agricultural systems can provide insights on their sustainability. Archaeological excavation enables discerning the order in which sediments are deposited and the sequence in which structures are built. This provides data on coincident cultural and ecological change, and a long-term perspective on how agro-ecological systems operated in pre-modern states and the ways in which they resemble or differ from modern contexts. Simultaneously, these changes would have left a physical, chemical and isotopic imprint in soils that can be detected and interpreted to contribute to the production of a "usable past" (Stump, 2013). The premise is: since ancient agricultural sites may provide information on agronomic conditions after centuries to millennia of use, they can help in understanding the ways in which agroecosystems have survived, failed or adapted in the past. This will contribute to a better holistic understanding of social-ecological systems evolution by including a temporal perspective, and to a more nuanced assessment of land degradation and sustainable use. To illustrate this we present the outcome of our research at two traditional

Statistical modeling of the Internet traffic dynamics: To which extent do we need long-term correlations?

Science.gov (United States)

Markelov, Oleg; Nguyen Duc, Viet; Bogachev, Mikhail

2017-11-01

Recently we have suggested a universal superstatistical model of user access patterns and aggregated network traffic. The model takes into account the irregular character of end user access patterns on the web via the non-exponential distributions of the local access rates, but neglects the long-term correlations between these rates. While the model is accurate for quasi-stationary traffic records, its performance under highly variable and especially non-stationary access dynamics remains questionable. In this paper, using an example of the traffic patterns from a highly loaded network cluster hosting the website of the 1998 FIFA World Cup, we suggest a generalization of the previously suggested superstatistical model by introducing long-term correlations between access rates. Using queueing system simulations, we show explicitly that this generalization is essential for modeling network nodes with highly non-stationary access patterns, where neglecting long-term correlations leads to the underestimation of the empirical average sojourn time by several decades under high throughput utilization.

Confluence of arts, humanities, and science at sites of long-term ecological inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Frederick J. Swanson

2015-01-01

Over the past century, ecology, the arts, and humanities diverged, but are now converging again, especially at sites of long-term, place-based ecological inquiry. This convergence has been inspired in part by the works of creative, boundary-spanning individuals and the long-standing examples of artshumanities programs in intriguing landscapes, such as artist and writer...

Quantification of motor network dynamics in Parkinson's disease by means of landscape and flux theory.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Han Yan

Full Text Available The basal ganglia neural circuit plays an important role in motor control. Despite the significant efforts, the understanding of the principles and underlying mechanisms of this modulatory circuit and the emergence of abnormal synchronized oscillations in movement disorders is still challenging. Dopamine loss has been proved to be responsible for Parkinson's disease. We quantitatively described the dynamics of the basal ganglia-thalamo-cortical circuit in Parkinson's disease in terms of the emergence of both abnormal firing rates and firing patterns in the circuit. We developed a potential landscape and flux framework for exploring the modulatory circuit. The driving force of the circuit can be decomposed into a gradient of the potential, which is associated with the steady-state probability distributions, and the curl probability flux term. We uncovered the underlying potential landscape as a Mexican hat-shape closed ring valley where abnormal oscillations emerge due to dopamine depletion. We quantified the global stability of the network through the topography of the landscape in terms of the barrier height, which is defined as the potential difference between the maximum potential inside the ring and the minimum potential along the ring. Both a higher barrier and a larger flux originated from detailed balance breaking result in more stable oscillations. Meanwhile, more energy is consumed to support the increasing flux. Global sensitivity analysis on the landscape topography and flux indicates how changes in underlying neural network regulatory wirings and external inputs influence the dynamics of the system. We validated two of the main hypotheses(direct inhibition hypothesis and output activation hypothesis on the therapeutic mechanism of deep brain stimulation (DBS. We found GPe appears to be another effective stimulated target for DBS besides GPi and STN. Our approach provides a general way to quantitatively explore neural networks and may

Long-distance seed dispersal by straw-coloured fruit bats varies by season and landscape

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Abedi-Lartey

2016-07-01

Full Text Available On-going fragmentation of tropical forest ecosystems and associated depletion of seed dispersers threatens the long-term survival of animal-dispersed plants. These threats do not only affect biodiversity and species abundance, but ultimately ecosystem functions and services. Thus, seed dispersers such as the straw-coloured fruit bat, E. helvum, which traverse long distances across fragmented landscapes, are particularly important for maintaining genetic connectivity and colonizing new sites for plant species. Using high-resolution GPS-tracking of movements, field observations and gut retention experiments, we quantify dispersal distances for small- and large-seeded fruits foraged by E. helvum during periods of colony population low (wet season and high (dry season in an urban and a rural landscape in the forest zone of Ghana. Gut passage time averaged 116 min (range 4–1143 min, comparable to other fruit bats. Movements were generally longer in the urban than in the rural landscape and also longer in the dry than in the wet season. As the majority of seeds are dispersed only to feeding roosts, median dispersal distances were similar for both large (42–67 m and small (42–65 m seeds. However, small seeds were potentially dispersed up to 75.4 km, four times further than the previous maximum distance estimated for a similar-sized frugivore. Maximum seed dispersal distances for small seeds were almost twice as long in the rural (49.7 km compare to the urban (31.2 km landscape. Within the urban landscape, estimated maximum dispersal distances for small seeds were three times longer during the dry season (75.4 km compared to the wet season (22.8 km; in contrast, distances in the rural landscape were three times longer in the wet season (67 km compared to the dry season (24.4. Dispersal distances for large seeds during the dry season (551 m in the rural landscape were almost twice that in the wet season (319 m. We found no influence of food

Long-term environmental behaviour of radionuclides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brechignac, F.; Moberg, L.; Suomela, M

2000-04-01

The radioactive pollution of the environment results from the atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (during the mid-years of twentieth century), from the development of the civilian nuclear industry and from accidents such as Chernobyl. Assessing the resulting radiation that humans might receive requires a good understanding of the long-term behaviour of radionuclides in the environment. This document reports on a joint European effort to advance this understanding, 3 multinational projects have been coordinated: PEACE, EPORA and LANDSCAPE. This report proposes an overview of the results obtained and they are presented in 6 different themes: (i) redistribution in the soil-plant system, (ii) modelling, (iii) countermeasures, (iv) runoff (v) spatial variations, and (vi) dose assessment. The long term behaviour of the radionuclides {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr and {sup 239-240}Pu is studied through various approaches, these approaches range from in-situ experiments designed to exploit past contamination events to laboratory simulations. A broad scope of different ecosystems ranging from arctic and boreal regions down to mediterranean ones has been considered. (A.C.)

Long-term environmental behaviour of radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brechignac, F.; Moberg, L.; Suomela, M.

2000-04-01

The radioactive pollution of the environment results from the atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (during the mid-years of twentieth century), from the development of the civilian nuclear industry and from accidents such as Chernobyl. Assessing the resulting radiation that humans might receive requires a good understanding of the long-term behaviour of radionuclides in the environment. This document reports on a joint European effort to advance this understanding, 3 multinational projects have been coordinated: PEACE, EPORA and LANDSCAPE. This report proposes an overview of the results obtained and they are presented in 6 different themes: i) redistribution in the soil-plant system, ii) modelling, iii) countermeasures, iv) runoff v) spatial variations, and vi) dose assessment. The long term behaviour of the radionuclides 137 Cs, 90 Sr and 239-240 Pu is studied through various approaches, these approaches range from in-situ experiments designed to exploit past contamination events to laboratory simulations. A broad scope of different ecosystems ranging from arctic and boreal regions down to mediterranean ones has been considered. (A.C.)

Potential and flux field landscape theory. I. Global stability and dynamics of spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

2013-09-28

We established a potential and flux field landscape theory to quantify the global stability and dynamics of general spatially dependent non-equilibrium deterministic and stochastic systems. We extended our potential and flux landscape theory for spatially independent non-equilibrium stochastic systems described by Fokker-Planck equations to spatially dependent stochastic systems governed by general functional Fokker-Planck equations as well as functional Kramers-Moyal equations derived from master equations. Our general theory is applied to reaction-diffusion systems. For equilibrium spatially dependent systems with detailed balance, the potential field landscape alone, defined in terms of the steady state probability distribution functional, determines the global stability and dynamics of the system. The global stability of the system is closely related to the topography of the potential field landscape in terms of the basins of attraction and barrier heights in the field configuration state space. The effective driving force of the system is generated by the functional gradient of the potential field alone. For non-equilibrium spatially dependent systems, the curl probability flux field is indispensable in breaking detailed balance and creating non-equilibrium condition for the system. A complete characterization of the non-equilibrium dynamics of the spatially dependent system requires both the potential field and the curl probability flux field. While the non-equilibrium potential field landscape attracts the system down along the functional gradient similar to an electron moving in an electric field, the non-equilibrium flux field drives the system in a curly way similar to an electron moving in a magnetic field. In the small fluctuation limit, the intrinsic potential field as the small fluctuation limit of the potential field for spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems, which is closely related to the steady state probability distribution functional, is

Carbonate landscapes evolution: Insights from 36Cl

Science.gov (United States)

Godard, Vincent; Thomas, Franck; Ollivier, Vincent; Bellier, Olivier; Shabanian, Esmaeil; Miramont, Cécile; Fleury, Jules; Benedetti, Lucilla; Guillou, Valéry; Aster Team

2017-04-01

Carbonate landscapes cover a significant fraction of the Earth surface, but their long-term dynamics is still poorly understood. When comparing with the situation in areas underlain by quartz-rich lithologies, where the routine use of 10Be-derived denudation rates has delivered fundamental insights on landscape evolution processes, this knowledge gap is particularly notable. Recent advances in the measurement of 36Cl and better understanding of its production pathways has opened the way to the development of a similar physically-based and quantitative analysis of landscape evolution in carbonate settings. However, beyond these methodological considerations, we still face fundamental geomorphological open questions, as for example the assessment of the importance of congruent carbonate dissolution in long-wavelength topographic evolution. Such unresolved problems concerning the relative importance of physical and chemical weathering processes lead to question the applicability of standard slope-dependent Geomorphic Transport Laws in carbonate settings. These issues have been addressed studying the geomorphological evolution of selected limestone ranges in Provence, SE France, where 36Cl concentration measurements in bedrock and stream sediment samples allow constraining denudation over 10 ka time-scale. We first identify a significant denudation contrast between the summit surface and the flanks of the ranges, pointing to a substantial contribution of gravity-driven processes to the landscape evolution, in addition to dissolution. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the relationships between hillslope morphology and hilltop denudation allow to identify a fundamental transition between two regimes: (1) a dynamics where hillslope evolution is controlled by linear diffusive downslope regolith transport; and, (2) a domain where denudation is limited by the rate at which physical and chemical weathering processes can produce clasts and lower the hilltop. Such an abrupt

Long-term landscape changes in a subalpine spruce-fir forest in central Utah, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesse L. Morris1

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background: In Western North America, increasing wildfire and outbreaks of native bark beetles have been mediated by warming climate conditions. Bioclimatic models forecast the loss of key high elevation species throughout the region. This study uses retrospective vegetation and fire history data to reconstruct the drivers of past disturbance and environmental change. Understanding the relationship among climate, antecedent disturbances, and the legacy effects of settlement-era logging can help identify the patterns and processes that create landscapes susceptible to bark beetle epidemics. Methods: Our analysis uses data from lake sediment cores, stand inventories, and historical records. Sediment cores were dated with radiometric techniques (14C and 210Pb/137Cs and subsampled for pollen and charcoal to maximize the temporal resolution during the historical period (1800 CE to present and to provide environmental baseline data (last 10,500 years. Pollen data for spruce were calibrated to carbon biomass (C t/ha using standard allometric equations and a transfer function. Charcoal samples were analyzed with statistical models to facilitate peak detection and determine fire recurrence intervals. Results: The Wasatch Plateau has been dominated by Engelmann spruce forests for the last ~10,500 years, with subalpine fir becoming more prominent since 6000 years ago. This landscape has experienced a dynamic fire regime, where burning events are more frequent and of higher magnitude during the last 3000 years. Two important disturbances have impacted Engelmann spruce in the historical period: 1 high-grade logging during the late 19th century; and (2 a high severity spruce beetle outbreak in the late 20th century that killed >90 % of mature spruce (>10 cm dbh. Conclusions: Our study shows that spruce-dominated forests in this region are resilient to a range of climate and disturbance regimes. Several lines of evidence suggest that 19th century logging

Short-horizon regulation for long-term investors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shi, Z.; Werker, B.J.M.

2012-01-01

We study the effects of imposing repeated short-horizon regulatory constraints on long-term investors. We show that Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall constraints, when imposed dynamically, lead to similar optimal portfolios and wealth distributions. We also show that, in utility terms, the costs

Long-Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun

2003-01-01

This thesis describes the development of three decision support models for long-term investment planning in restructured power systems. The model concepts address the changing conditions for the electric power industry, with the introduction of more competitive markets, higher uncertainty and less centralised planning. Under these circumstances there is an emerging need for new planning models, also for analyses of the power system in a long-term perspective. The thesis focuses particularly on how dynamic and stochastic modelling can contribute to the improvement of decision making in a restructured power industry. We argue that the use of such modelling approaches has become more important after the introduction of competitive power markets, due to the participants' increased exposure to price fluctuations and economic risk. Our models can be applied by individual participants in the power system to evaluate investment projects for new power generation capacity. The models can also serve as a decision support tool on a regulatory level, providing analyses of the long-term performance of the power system under different regulations and market designs. In Chapter 1, we give a brief introduction to the ongoing development towards restructuring and liberalisation of the electrical power system. A discussion of the operation and organisation of restructured power systems is also provided. In Chapter 2, we look more specifically at different modelling approaches for expansion planning in electrical power systems. We also discuss how the contributions in this thesis compare to previous work in the field of decision support models for long-term planning in both regulated and competitive power systems. In Chapter 3, we develop a power market simulation model based on system dynamics. The advantages and limitations of using descriptive system dynamics models for long-term planning purposes in this context are also discussed. Chapter 4 is devoted to a novel optimisation

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.; Stallard, Robert F.

2011-07-01

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983-1987, 1991-1997, and 2000-2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO4), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual "boomerang" pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Could the landscape preserve traces of a deep underground nuclear waste repository over the very long term? What we can learn from the archaeology of ancient mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harmand, Dominique; BRULHET, Jacques

2015-01-01

Prof. Dominique Harmand presented a study conducted on behalf of Andra that focused on the archaeology of abandoned underground mines in order to illustrate how ancient human activities have left traces in the landscape. Old mines often have left some traces at surface such as slag heaps and parts of shafts over relatively long timescales, up to thousands of years. Geological disposal projects are equally likely to leave traces in the landscape over time. In the case of the French Cigeo project (Centre industriel de stockage geologique), research into the past and future geological evolution of the area shows that traces of heads of shafts and inclined tunnels, and filled excavations will likely still exist at surface in the distant future. However, as these traces could be confused with other human and natural traces of all ages, steps need to be taken to ensure that they are correctly interpreted. A suggested approach to facilitate the correct interpretation in the future consists in marking the site, and especially its long-lasting traces, with long-lived anthropological elements, such as small engraved ceramic pieces. These could be placed around the repository's surface buildings, but also in drill holes that would be a few metres deep. As a result of the natural erosion of the site, they would progressively reach the surface of the area in the long term

Fuel dynamics by using Landscape Ecology Indices in the Alto Mijares, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, J.; Garcia, C. V.

2009-04-01

Land abandonment in Mediterranean regions has brought about a number of management problems, being an increased wildfire activity prevalent among them. Agricultural neglect in highlands resulted in reduced anthropogenic disturbances and greater landscape homogeneity in areas such as the Alto Mijares in Spain. It is widely accepted that processes like forest fires, influence structure of the landscape and vice versa. Fire-prone Mediterranean flora is well adapted to this disturbance, exhibiting excellent succession capabilities; but higher fuel loads and homogeneous conditions may ally to promote vegetation recession when the fire regime is altered by land abandonment. Both succession and recession make changes to the landscape structure and configuration. However, these changes are difficult to quantify and characterize. If landscape restoration of these forests is a management objective, then developing a quantitative knowledge base for landscape fuel dynamics is a prerequisite. Four classified LandsatTM satellite images were compared to quantify changes in landscape structure between 1984 and 1998. An attempt is made to define landscape level dynamics for fuel development after reduced disturbance and fuel accumulation that leads to catastrophic fires by using landscape ecology indices. By doing so, indices that best describe the fuel dynamics are pointed. The results indicate that low-level disturbance increases heterogeneity, thus lowers fire hazard. No disturbance or severe disturbance increases homogeneity because of vegetation succession and may lead to devastating fires. These fires could be avoided by human induced disturbance like controlled burning, harvesting, mechanical works for fuel reduction and other silviculture measures; thus bringing in more heterogeneity in the region. The Alto Mijares landscape appears to be in an unstable equilibrium where succession and recession are at tug of war. The effects are evident in the general absence of the climax

Mid-Wisconsin to Holocene permafrost and landscape dynamics based on a drained lake basin core from the northern Seward Peninsula, northwest Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Lenz, Josefine; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Benjamin M.; Anthony, Katey M. Walter; Bobrov, Anatoly; Wulf, Sabine; Wetterich, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Permafrost-related processes drive regional landscape dynamics in the Arctic terrestrial system. A better understanding of past periods indicative of permafrost degradation and aggradation is important for predicting the future response of Arctic landscapes to climate change. Here, we used a multi-proxy approach to analyse a ~ 4 m long sediment core from a drained thermokarst lake basin on the northern Seward Peninsula in western Arctic Alaska (USA). Sedimentological, biogeochemical, geochronological, micropalaeontological (ostracoda, testate amoebae) and tephra analyses were used to determine the long-term environmental Early-Wisconsin to Holocene history preserved in our core for central Beringia. Yedoma accumulation dominated throughout the Early to Late-Wisconsin but was interrupted by wetland formation from 44.5 to 41.5 ka BP. The latter was terminated by the deposition of 1 m of volcanic tephra, most likely originating from the South Killeak Maar eruption at about 42 ka BP. Yedoma deposition continued until 22.5 ka BP and was followed by a depositional hiatus in the sediment core between 22.5 and 0.23 ka BP. We interpret this hiatus as due to intense thermokarst activity in the areas surrounding the site, which served as a sediment source during the Late-Wisconsin to Holocene climate transition. The lake forming the modern basin on the upland initiated around 0.23 ka BP and drained catastrophically in spring 2005. The present study emphasises that Arctic lake systems and periglacial landscapes are highly dynamic and that permafrost formation as well as degradation in central Beringia was controlled by regional to global climate patterns as well as by local disturbances.

Long-term spatio-temporal changes in a West African bushmeat trade system.

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, J; Kusimi, J M; Rowcliffe, J M; Cowlishaw, G; Brenyah, A; Milner-Gulland, E J

2015-10-01

Landscapes in many developing countries consist of a heterogeneous matrix of mixed agriculture and forest. Many of the generalist species in this matrix are increasingly traded in the bushmeat markets of West and Central Africa. However, to date there has been little quantification of how the spatial configuration of the landscape influences the urban bushmeat trade over time. As anthropogenic landscapes become the face of rural West Africa, understanding the dynamics of these systems has important implications for conservation and landscape management. The bushmeat production of an area is likely to be defined by landscape characteristics such as habitat disturbance, hunting pressure, level of protection, and distance to market. We explored (SSG, tense) the role of these four characteristics in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the commercial bushmeat trade around the city of Kumasi, Ghana, over 27 years (1978 to 2004). We used geographic information system methods to generate maps delineating the spatial characteristics of the landscapes. These data were combined with spatially explicit market data collected in the main fresh bushmeat market in Kumasi to explore the relationship between trade volume (measured in terms of number of carcasses) and landscape characteristics. Over time, rodents, specifically cane rats (Thryonomys swinderianus), became more abundant in the trade relative to ungulates and the catchment area of the bushmeat market expanded. Areas of intermediate disturbance supplied more bushmeat, but protected areas had no effect. Heavily hunted areas showed significant declines in bushmeat supply over time. Our results highlight the role that low intensity, heterogeneous agricultural landscapes can play in providing ecosystem services, such as bushmeat, and therefore the importance of incorporating bushmeat into ecosystem service mapping exercises. Our results also indicate that even where high bushmeat production is possible, current harvest levels may

A Portable Dynamic Laser Speckle System for Sensing Long-Term Changes Caused by Treatments in Painting Conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, Alberto J; González-Peña, Rolando J; Braga, Roberto; Perles, Ángel; Pérez-Marín, Eva; García-Diego, Fernando J

2018-01-11

Dynamic laser speckle (DLS) is used as a reliable sensor of activity for all types of materials. Traditional applications are based on high-rate captures (usually greater than 10 frames-per-second, fps). Even for drying processes in conservation treatments, where there is a high level of activity in the first moments after the application and slower activity after some minutes or hours, the process is based on the acquisition of images at a time rate that is the same in moments of high and low activity. In this work, we present an alternative approach to track the drying process of protective layers and other painting conservation processes that take a long time to reduce their levels of activity. We illuminate, using three different wavelength lasers, a temporary protector (cyclododecane) and a varnish, and monitor them using a low fps rate during long-term drying. The results are compared to the traditional method. This work also presents a monitoring method that uses portable equipment. The results present the feasibility of using the portable device and show the improved sensitivity of the dynamic laser speckle when sensing the long-term process for drying cyclododecane and varnish in conservation.

A Portable Dynamic Laser Speckle System for Sensing Long-Term Changes Caused by Treatments in Painting Conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, Alberto J.; Braga, Roberto; Perles, Ángel; Pérez–Marín, Eva; García-Diego, Fernando J.

2018-01-01

Dynamic laser speckle (DLS) is used as a reliable sensor of activity for all types of materials. Traditional applications are based on high-rate captures (usually greater than 10 frames-per-second, fps). Even for drying processes in conservation treatments, where there is a high level of activity in the first moments after the application and slower activity after some minutes or hours, the process is based on the acquisition of images at a time rate that is the same in moments of high and low activity. In this work, we present an alternative approach to track the drying process of protective layers and other painting conservation processes that take a long time to reduce their levels of activity. We illuminate, using three different wavelength lasers, a temporary protector (cyclododecane) and a varnish, and monitor them using a low fps rate during long-term drying. The results are compared to the traditional method. This work also presents a monitoring method that uses portable equipment. The results present the feasibility of using the portable device and show the improved sensitivity of the dynamic laser speckle when sensing the long-term process for drying cyclododecane and varnish in conservation. PMID:29324692

Unraveling Landscape Complexity: Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Landscape Pattern Dynamics (1954-2008) in Contrasting Peri-Urban and Agro-Forest Regions of Northern Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Smiraglia, D; Ceccarelli, T; Bajocco, S; Perini, L; Salvati, L

2015-10-01

This study implements an exploratory data analysis of landscape metrics and a change detection analysis of land use and population density to assess landscape dynamics (1954-2008) in two physiographic zones (plain and hilly-mountain area) of Emilia Romagna, northern Italy. The two areas are characterized by different landscape types: a mixed urban-rural landscape dominated by arable land and peri-urban settlements in the plain and a traditional agro-forest landscape in the hilly-mountain area with deciduous and conifer forests, scrublands, meadows, and crop mosaic. Urbanization and, to a lesser extent, agricultural intensification were identified as the processes underlying landscape change in the plain. Land abandonment determining natural forestation and re-forestation driven by man was identified as the process of change most representative of the hilly-mountain area. Trends in landscape metrics indicate a shift toward more fragmented and convoluted patterns in both areas. Number of patches, the interspersion and juxtaposition index, and the large patch index are the metrics discriminating the two areas in terms of landscape patterns in 1954. In 2008, mean patch size, edge density, interspersion and juxtaposition index, and mean Euclidean nearest neighbor distance were the metrics with the most different spatial patterns in the two areas. The exploratory data analysis of landscape metrics contributed to link changes over time in both landscape composition and configuration providing a comprehensive picture of landscape transformations in a wealthy European region. Evidence from this study are hoped to inform sustainable land management designed for homogeneous landscape units in similar socioeconomic contexts.

Implantable fiber-optic interface for parallel multisite long-term optical dynamic brain interrogation in freely moving mice

Science.gov (United States)

Doronina-Amitonova, L. V.; Fedotov, I. V.; Ivashkina, O. I.; Zots, M. A.; Fedotov, A. B.; Anokhin, K. V.; Zheltikov, A. M.

2013-01-01

Seeing the big picture of functional responses within large neural networks in a freely functioning brain is crucial for understanding the cellular mechanisms behind the higher nervous activity, including the most complex brain functions, such as cognition and memory. As a breakthrough toward meeting this challenge, implantable fiber-optic interfaces integrating advanced optogenetic technologies and cutting-edge fiber-optic solutions have been demonstrated, enabling a long-term optogenetic manipulation of neural circuits in freely moving mice. Here, we show that a specifically designed implantable fiber-optic interface provides a powerful tool for parallel long-term optical interrogation of distinctly separate, functionally different sites in the brain of freely moving mice. This interface allows the same groups of neurons lying deeply in the brain of a freely behaving mouse to be reproducibly accessed and optically interrogated over many weeks, providing a long-term dynamic detection of genome activity in response to a broad variety of pharmacological and physiological stimuli. PMID:24253232

Experiences of long-term tranquillizer use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skinhoj, K T; Larsson, S; Helweg-Joergensen, S

2001-01-01

, the psychodynamic perspective is integrated within a multi-dimensional model that considers biological, cognitive, identity, gender and social learning factors. The analysis reveals the possibility of achieving a detailed understanding of the dynamic processes involved in the development of long-term tranquillizer...

Emergence of Long-Term Memory in Popularity

OpenAIRE

Soh, Hyungjoon; Hong, Joo Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Jeong, Hawoong

2017-01-01

Popularity describes the dynamics of mass attention, and is a part of a broader class of population dynamics in ecology and social science literature. Studying accurate model of popularity is important for quantifying spreading of novelty, memes, and influences in human society. Although logistic equation and similar class of nonlinear differential equation formulates traditional population dynamics well, part of the deviation in long-term prediction is stated, yet fully understood. Recently,...

The relative importance of fertilization and soil erosion on C-dynamics in agricultural landscapes of NE Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Pohl, Madlen; Hoffmann, Mathias; Hagemann, Ulrike; Jurisch, Nicole; Remus, Rainer; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

2016-04-01

and interactions between soil and fertilization types also seem to affect C-dynamics. Hence, long-term measurements of different fertilization treatments at characteristic soil landscape elements are needed.

Optimal Long-Term Financial Contracting

OpenAIRE

Peter M. DeMarzo; Michael J. Fishman

2007-01-01

We develop an agency model of financial contracting. We derive long-term debt, a line of credit, and equity as optimal securities, capturing the debt coupon and maturity; the interest rate and limits on the credit line; inside versus outside equity; dividend policy; and capital structure dynamics. The optimal debt-equity ratio is history dependent, but debt and credit line terms are independent of the amount financed and, in some cases, the severity of the agency problem. In our model, the ag...

Dynamics of microbial community during the extremely long-term fermentation process of a traditional soy sauce.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Deng, Yue; Jin, Yulan; Liu, Yanxi; Xia, Baixue; Sun, Qun

2017-08-01

Soy sauce produced by long-term natural fermentation is a traditional specialty in Asia, with a reputation for superior quality and rich flavour. In this study, both culture-dependent and culture-independent approaches were used to investigate the microbial diversity and community dynamics during an extremely long-term (up to 4 years) natural fermentation of Xianshi Soy Sauce, a national intangible cultural heritage. Genera of Bacillus, Aspergillus and Cladosporium were detected by both methods above. The relative abundance of the genera Bacillus and Weissella was significantly higher in the late stage than in the early one, while the genera Klebsiella and Shimwellia were opposite (P fermentation time, while there was a fair homogeneousness among samples of the same year, especially during the late fermentation stage. The clustering analysis tended to separate the fermented mashes of the 4th year from the earlier stages, suggesting the necessity of the long fermentation period for developing distinctive microbiota and characteristic quality-related compounds. This is the first report to explore the temporal changes in microbial dynamics over a period of 4 years in traditional fermentation of soy sauce, and this work illustrated the importance of isolation of appropriate strains to be used as starter cultures in brewing processes. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Factors influencing long term dynamics of health care supply and demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smits, M.T.; Roos, E.; Pries-Heje, J.; Chiasson, M.; Wareham, J.; Busquets, X.; Valor, J.

2012-01-01

Governments and other policy makers use long-term planning models to support workforce planning decisions for regulating care markets and to ensure accurate balancing between care supply and demand. Our aim is to understand long-term effects of workforce planning decisions on care markets, in order

Long-term kinematics and sediment flux of an active earthflow, Eel River, California

Science.gov (United States)

B. H. Mackey; J. J. Roering; J. A. McKean

2009-01-01

Although earthflows are the dominant erosion mechanism in many mountainous landscapes, estimates of long-term earthflow-driven sediment flux remain elusive because landslide displacement data are typically limited to contemporary time periods. Combining high-resolution topography from airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging), total station surveying, orthorectified...

Optimal long-term contracting with learning

OpenAIRE

He, Zhiguo; Wei, Bin; Yu, Jianfeng; Gao, Feng

2016-01-01

We introduce uncertainty into Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to study optimal long-term contracting with learning. In a dynamic relationship, the agent's shirking not only reduces current performance but also increases the agent's information rent due to the persistent belief manipulation effect. We characterize the optimal contract using the dynamic programming technique in which information rent is the unique state variable. In the optimal contract, the optimal effort is front-loaded and decr...

Integrating Dendrochronology, Climate and Satellite Remote Sensing to Better Understand Savanna Landscape Dynamics in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane Southworth

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This research examines the integration and potential uses of linkages between climate dynamics, savanna vegetation and landscape level processes within a highly vulnerable region, both in terms of climate variability and social systems. We explore the combined applications of two time-series methodologies: (1 climate signals detected in tree ring growth, from published literature, chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, and minimal preliminary field data; and (2 new primary production (NPP data of vegetation cover over time derived from remotely sensed analyses. Both time-series are related to the regional patterns of precipitation, the principle driver of plant growth in the area. The approach is temporally and spatially multiscalar and examines the relationships between vegetation cover, type and amount, and precipitation shifts. We review literature linking dendrochronology, climate, and remotely sensed imagery, and, in addition, provide unique preliminary analyses from a dry study site located on the outer limit of the Okavango Delta. The work demonstrates integration across the different data sources, to provide a more holistic view of landscape level processes occurring in the last 30-50 years. These results corroborate the water-limited nature of the region and the dominance of precipitation in controlling vegetation growth. We present this integrative analysis of vegetation and climate change, as a prospective approach to facilitate the development of long-term climate/vegetation change records across multiple scales.

Long-Term Vegetation Dynamics in a Megadiverse Hotspot: The Ice-Age Record of a Pre-montane Forest of Central Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Encarni Montoya

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Tropical ecosystems play a key role in many aspects of Earth system dynamics currently of global concern, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity. To accurately understand complex tropical systems it is necessary to parameterise key ecological aspects, such as rates of change (RoC, species turnover, dynamism, resilience, or stability. To obtain a long-term (>50 years perspective on these ecological aspects we must turn to the fossil record. However, compared to temperate zones, collecting continuous sedimentary archives in the lowland tropics is often difficult due to the active landscape processes, with potentially frequent volcanic, tectonic, and/or fluvial events confounding sediment deposition, preservation, and recovery. Consequently, the nature, and drivers, of vegetation dynamics during the last glacial are barely known from many non-montane tropical landscapes. One of the first lowland Amazonian locations from which palaeoecological data were obtained was an outcrop near Mera (Ecuador. Mera was discovered, and analysed, by Paul Colinvaux in the 1980s, but his interpretation of the data as indicative of a forested glacial period were criticised based on the ecology and age control. Here we present new palaeoecological data from a lake located less than 10 km away from Mera. Sediment cores raised from Laguna Pindo (1250 masl; 1°27′S, 78°05′W have been shown to span the late last glacial period [50–13 cal kyr BP (calibrated kiloyears before present]. The palaeoecological information obtained from Laguna Pindo indicate that the region was characterised by a relatively stable plant community, formed by taxa nowadays common at both mid and high elevations. Miconia was the dominant taxon until around 30 cal kyr BP, when it was replaced by Hedyosmum, Asteraceae and Ilex among other taxa. Heat intolerant taxa including Podocarpus, Alnus, and Myrica peaked around the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 21 cal kyr BP. The results

Probing the energy landscape of alanine dipeptide and decalanine using temperature as a tunable parameter in molecular dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, A; Bhattacharya, S

2016-01-01

We perform several molecular dynamics (MD) calculations of solvated alanine dipeptide and decalanine in vacuum with temperature as a tunable parameter and in the process, generate Markov state models (MSMs) at each temperature. An interesting observation that the kinetic rates appear to obey the Arrhenius rate law allows us to predict the dynamics of alanine dipeptide at 300 K at the microsecond timescales using the nanoseconds long high temperature calculations without actually performing MD simulations at 300 K. We conclude that the energy landscape of alanine dipeptide contains superbasins deeper than k B T and determine the energy barriers associated with the moves from the Arrhenius rate expression. Similar insights regarding the energy landscape associated with folding/unfolding pathways of a deca-alanine molecule are obtained using kinetic rates calculated at different temperatures. (paper)

Long-term strategic asset allocation: An out-of-sample evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diris, B.F.; Palm, F.C.; Schotman, P.C.

We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of a long-term investor who follows an optimized dynamic trading strategy. Although the dynamic strategy is able to benefit from predictability out-of-sample, a short-term investor using a single-period market timing strategy would have realized an almost

Landscape seasons and air mass dynamics in Latvia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krauklis, A.; Draveniece, A.

2004-01-01

Latvia is located in the middle of an area where the boreal and nemoral zones and the regions of oceanic and continental climate meet, and it was studied as a model territory of the most typical variation of boreo-nemoral ecotone. The subject of this study was seasonal dynamics of the state of landscapes and diachronous links between seasons. It was found that landscapes undergo 12 seasonal states or seasons during the annual cycle of insulation and air mass occurrence. Each season may be distinguished by a definite amount of solar radiation, distinctive state of heat and water balance, phenological state of vegetation, and a distinctive occurrence of different air mass types and their particular 'association'. During each season these variables show a particular combination of numerical values and a distinctive landscape pattern

Ark and Archive: Making a Place for Long-Term Research on Barro Colorado Island, Panama.

Science.gov (United States)

Raby, Megan

2015-12-01

Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, may be the most studied tropical forest in the world. A 1,560-hectare island created by the flooding of the Panama Canal, BCI became a nature reserve and biological research station in 1923. Contemporaries saw the island as an "ark" preserving a sample of primeval tropical nature for scientific study. BCI was not simply "set aside," however. The project of making it a place for science significantly reshaped the island through the twentieth century. This essay demonstrates that BCI was constructed specifically to allow long-term observation of tropical organisms--their complex behaviors, life histories, population dynamics, and changing species composition. An evolving system of monitoring and information technology transformed the island into a living scientific "archive," in which the landscape became both an object and a repository of scientific knowledge. As a research site, BCI enabled a long-term, place-based form of collective empiricism, focused on the study of the ecology of a single tropical island. This essay articulates tropical ecology as a "science of the archive" in order to examine the origins of practices of environmental surveillance that have become central to debates about global change and conservation.

Perceptions of Post-Wildfire Landscape Change and Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Kooistra, C. M.; Hall, T. E.; Paveglio, T.; Carroll, M.; Smith, A. M.

2013-12-01

Considering the dynamic nature of the earth and climate systems and the increasing potential for widespread forest disturbances, it is important to understand the implications of landscape changes, and perceptions of changes, on people's responses to forest disturbances. Understanding how people perceive landscape change over time following forest disturbances helps researchers, land managers, and community leaders identify important biophysical and social characteristics that influence the vulnerability of people who experience forest disturbances, as well as their responses to those disturbances. This poster describes people's perceptions of landscape change following a significant wildfire. The lightning ignited Dahl fire burned 12 miles southeast of Roundup, MT mostly on private land in the summer of June 2012. The fire burned approximately 22,000 acres and destroyed 73 residences. We conducted interviews in the summer of 2013 with more than 40 residents, land managers, emergency personnel, and other stakeholders. While interviews covered several topics, this poster focuses on responses to questions regarding perceptions of short- and long-term landscape change after the fire, including both social and biophysical perspectives. Interviews revealed that people's understanding of the role of wildfires as a natural ecosystem process, as well as their connections with the landscape (i.e., sense of place), were important factors that influenced their perceptions of landscape change after the fire. Many respondents discussed the landscape ';recovering' to pre-fire conditions in longer-term timeframes, such as ';multiple generations.' They often referenced previous wildfires, the Hawk Creek fire (1984) and the Majeras fire (2006), by explaining how parts of the landscape affected by the Dahl fire might compare to certain areas of the previous fires. Variations in recovery expectations were often based on perceptions of the severity of the fire (especially temperature

The Dynamic Relationship between Growth and Profitability under Long-Term Recession: The Case of Korean Construction Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seungkyu Yoo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available We conducted an empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between growth and profitability for small- and medium-sized construction companies that faced long-term economic stagnation in Korea. The period of the analysis spanned 2000 to 2014, and the full period was divided into two halves: before the 2008 global financial crisis and after it. Our empirical model was based on the system generalized method of moments model, and 264 construction companies were used as the study sample. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. (1 A profitability-driven management strategy limits company growth, thus prolonging the economic downturn; (2 When the macroeconomic environment is relatively stable, high growth in the previous period fosters profitability in the current period. This implies that the phenomenon of dynamic increasing returns is present in the Korean construction industry, and learning through growth enhances productivity and profitability. Consequentially, a strategy oriented towards short-term profitability (popular with small- and medium-sized Korean construction companies makes the corporate management less resilient, causing them to select “de-growth” during the long-term stagnation by decreasing their scale of operations. Accordingly, it is important for companies to maintain the balance between growth and profitability.

Driving the Landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Haff, P. K.

2012-12-01

Technological modification of the earth's surface (e.g., agriculture, urbanization) is an old story in human history, but what about the future? The future of landscape in an accelerating technological world, beyond a relatively short time horizon, lies hidden behind an impenetrable veil of complexity. Sufficiently complex dynamics generates not only the trajectory of a variable of interest (e.g., vegetation cover) but also the environment in which that variable evolves (e.g., background climate). There is no way to anticipate what variables will define that environment—the dynamics creates its own variables. We are always open to surprise by a change of conditions we thought or assumed were fixed or by the appearance of new phenomena of whose possible existence we had been unaware or thought unlikely. This is especially true under the influence of technology, where novelty is the rule. Lack of direct long-term predictability of landscape change does not, however, mean we cannot say anything about its future. The presence of persistence (finite time scales) in a system means that prediction by a calibrated numerical model should be good for a limited period of time barring bad luck or faulty implementation. Short-term prediction, despite its limitations, provides an option for dealing with the longer-term future. If a computer-controlled car tries to drive itself from New York to Los Angeles, no conceivable (or possible) stand-alone software can be constructed to predict a priori the space-time trajectory of the vehicle. Yet the drive is normally completed easily by most drivers. The trip is successfully completed because each in a series of very short (linear) steps can be "corrected" on the fly by the driver, who takes her cues from the environment to keep the car on the road and headed toward its destination. This metaphor differs in a fundamental way from the usual notion of predicting geomorphic change, because it involves a goal—to reach a desired

[Landscape pattern gradient dynamics and desakota features in rapid urbanization area: a case study in Panyu of Guangzhou].

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Long-Sheng; Fu, Yi-Fu; Yu, Huai-Yi; Li, Zhi-Qin

2011-01-01

In order to understand the landscape pattern gradient dynamics and desakota features in rapid urbanization area, this paper took the rapidly urbanizing Panyu District of Guangzhou City as a case, and analyzed its land use and land cover data, based on four Landsat TM images from 1990 to 2008. With the combination of gradient analysis and landscape pattern analysis, and by using the landscape indices in both class and landscape scales, the spatial dynamics and desakota feature of this rapidly urbanizing district were quantified. In the study district, there was a significant change in the landscape pattern, and a typical desakota feature presented along buffer gradient zones. Urban landscape increased and expanded annually, accompanied with serious fragmentation of agricultural landscape. The indices patch density, contagion, and landscape diversity, etc., changed regularly in the urbanization gradient, and the peak of landscape indices appeared in the gradient zone of 4-6 km away from the urban center. The landscape patterns at time series also reflected the differences among the dynamics in different gradient zones. The landscape pattern in desakota region was characterized by complex patch shape, high landscape diversity and fragmentation, and remarkable landscape dynamics. The peaks of landscape indices spread from the urban center to border areas, and desakota region was expanding gradually. The general trend of spatiotemporal dynamics in desakota region and its driving forces were discussed, which could be benefit to the regional land use policy-making and sustainable development planning.

Markov dynamic models for long-timescale protein motion.

KAUST Repository

Chiang, Tsung-Han

2010-06-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established method for studying protein motion at the atomic scale. However, it is computationally intensive and generates massive amounts of data. One way of addressing the dual challenges of computation efficiency and data analysis is to construct simplified models of long-timescale protein motion from MD simulation data. In this direction, we propose to use Markov models with hidden states, in which the Markovian states represent potentially overlapping probabilistic distributions over protein conformations. We also propose a principled criterion for evaluating the quality of a model by its ability to predict long-timescale protein motions. Our method was tested on 2D synthetic energy landscapes and two extensively studied peptides, alanine dipeptide and the villin headpiece subdomain (HP-35 NleNle). One interesting finding is that although a widely accepted model of alanine dipeptide contains six states, a simpler model with only three states is equally good for predicting long-timescale motions. We also used the constructed Markov models to estimate important kinetic and dynamic quantities for protein folding, in particular, mean first-passage time. The results are consistent with available experimental measurements.

Markov dynamic models for long-timescale protein motion.

KAUST Repository

Chiang, Tsung-Han; Hsu, David; Latombe, Jean-Claude

2010-01-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established method for studying protein motion at the atomic scale. However, it is computationally intensive and generates massive amounts of data. One way of addressing the dual challenges of computation efficiency and data analysis is to construct simplified models of long-timescale protein motion from MD simulation data. In this direction, we propose to use Markov models with hidden states, in which the Markovian states represent potentially overlapping probabilistic distributions over protein conformations. We also propose a principled criterion for evaluating the quality of a model by its ability to predict long-timescale protein motions. Our method was tested on 2D synthetic energy landscapes and two extensively studied peptides, alanine dipeptide and the villin headpiece subdomain (HP-35 NleNle). One interesting finding is that although a widely accepted model of alanine dipeptide contains six states, a simpler model with only three states is equally good for predicting long-timescale motions. We also used the constructed Markov models to estimate important kinetic and dynamic quantities for protein folding, in particular, mean first-passage time. The results are consistent with available experimental measurements.

Theory for the stability and regulation of epigenetic landscapes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Micheelsen, Mille A; Mitarai, Namiko; Sneppen, Kim; Dodd, Ian B

2010-01-01

Cells can often choose among several stably heritable phenotypes. Examples are the expressions of genes in eukaryotic cells where long chromosomal regions can adopt persistent and heritable silenced or active states that may be associated with positive feedback in dynamic modification of nucleosomes. We generalize this mechanism in terms of bistability associated with valleys in an epigenetic landscape. A transfer matrix method was used to rigorously follow the system through the disruptive process of cell division. This combined treatment of noisy dynamics both between and during cell division provides an efficient way to calculate the stability of alternative states in a broad range of epigenetic systems

Trends of Forest Dynamics in Tiger Landscapes Across Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, Pinki; Nagendra, Harini

2011-10-01

Protected areas (PAs) are cornerstones of biodiversity conservation, but small parks alone cannot support wide-ranging species, such as the tiger. Hence, forest dynamics in the surrounding landscapes of PAs are also important to tiger conservation. Tiger landscapes often support considerable human population in proximity of the PA, sometimes within the core itself, and thus are subject to various land use activities (such as agricultural expansion and road development) driving habitat loss and fragmentation. We synthesize information from 27 journal articles in 24 tiger landscapes to assess forest-cover dynamics in tiger-range countries. Although 29% of the PAs considered in this study have negligible change in overall forest cover, approximately 71% are undergoing deforestation and fragmentation. Approximately 58% of the total case studies have human settlements within the core area. Most changes—including agricultural expansion, plantation, and farming (52%), fuelwood and fodder collection (43%), logging (38%), grazing (38%), and tourism and development (10%)—can be attributed to human impacts largely linked to the nature of the management regime. This study highlights the need for incorporating new perspectives, ideas, and lessons learned locally and across borders into management plans to ensure tiger conservation in landscapes dominated by human activities. Given the increasing isolation of most parks due to agricultural, infrastructural, and commercial developments at the periphery, it is imperative to conduct planning and evaluation at the landscape level, as well as incorporate multiple actors and institutions in planning, instead of focusing solely on conservation within the PAs as is currently the case in most tiger parks.

Modelling the long-term vertical dynamics of salt marshes

Science.gov (United States)

Zoccarato, Claudia; Teatini, Pietro

2017-04-01

Salt marshes are vulnerable environments hosting complex interactions between physical and biological processes with a strong influence on the dynamics of the marsh evolution. The estimation and prediction of the elevation of a salt-marsh platform is crucial to forecast the marsh growth or regression under different scenarios considering, for example, the potential climate changes. The long-term vertical dynamics of a salt marsh is predicted with the aid of an original finite-element (FE) numerical model accounting for the marsh accretion and compaction and for the variation rates of the relative sea level rise, i.e., land subsidence of the marsh basement and eustatic rise of the sea level. The accretion term considers the vertical sedimentation of organic and inorganic material over the marsh surface, whereas the compaction reflects the progressive consolidation of the porous medium under the increasing load of the overlying younger deposits. The modelling approach is based on a 2D groundwater flow simulator, which provides the pressure evolution within a compacting/accreting vertical cross-section of the marsh assuming that the groundwater flow obeys the relative Darcy's law, coupled to a 1D vertical geomechanical module following Terzaghi's principle of effective intergranular stress. Soil porosity, permeability, and compressibility may vary with the effective intergranular stress according to empirically based relationships. The model also takes into account the geometric non-linearity arising from the consideration of large solid grain movements by using a Lagrangian approach with an adaptive FE mesh. The element geometry changes in time to follow the deposit consolidation and the element number increases in time to follow the sedimentation of new material. The numerical model is tested on different realistic configurations considering the influence of (i) the spatial distribution of the sedimentation rate in relation to the distance from the marsh margin, (ii

Crossover to potential energy landscape dominated dynamics in a model glass-forming liquid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schrøder, Thomas; Sastry, S.; Dyre, Jeppe

2000-01-01

An equilibrated model glass-forming liquid is studied by mapping successive configurations produced by molecular dynamics simulation onto a time series of inherent structures (local minima in the potential energy). Using this "inherent dynamics" approach we find direct numerical evidence for the ......An equilibrated model glass-forming liquid is studied by mapping successive configurations produced by molecular dynamics simulation onto a time series of inherent structures (local minima in the potential energy). Using this "inherent dynamics" approach we find direct numerical evidence...... for the long held view that below a crossover temperature, Tx, the liquid's dynamics can be separated into (i) vibrations around inherent structures and (ii) transitions between inherent structures [M. Goldstein, J. Chem. Phys. 51, 3728 (1969)], i.e., the dynamics become "dominated" by the potential energy...... landscape. In agreement with previous proposals, we find that Tx is within the vicinity of the mode-coupling critical temperature Tc. We further find that near Tx, transitions between inherent structures occur via cooperative, stringlike rearrangements of groups of particles moving distances substantially...

Influence of dynamic topography on landscape evolution and passive continental margin stratigraphy

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Xuesong; Salles, Tristan; Flament, Nicolas; Rey, Patrice

2017-04-01

Quantifying the interaction between surface processes and tectonics/deep Earth processes is one important aspect of landscape evolution modelling. Both observations and results from numerical modelling indicate that dynamic topography - a surface expression of time-varying mantle convection - plays a significant role in shaping landscape through geological time. Recent research suggests that dynamic topography also has non-negligible effects on stratigraphic architecture by modifying accommodation space available for sedimentation. In addition, dynamic topography influences the sediment supply to continental margins. We use Badlands to investigate the evolution of a continental-scale landscape in response to transient dynamic uplift or subsidence, and to model the stratigraphic development on passive continental margins in response to sea-level change, thermal subsidence and dynamic topography. We consider a circularly symmetric landscape consisting of a plateau surrounded by a gently sloping continental plain and a continental margin, and a linear wave of dynamic topography. We analyze the evolution of river catchments, of longitudinal river profiles and of the χ values to evaluate the dynamic response of drainage systems to dynamic topography. We calculate the amount of cumulative erosion and deposition, and sediment flux at shoreline position, as a function of precipitation rate and erodibility coefficient. We compute the stratal stacking pattern and Wheeler diagram on vertical cross-sections at the continental margin. Our results indicate that dynamic topography 1) has a considerable influence on drainage reorganization; 2) contributes to shoreline migration and the distribution of depositional packages by modifying the accommodation space; 3) affects sediment supply to the continental margin. Transient dynamic topography contributes to the migration of drainage divides and to the migration of the mainstream in a drainage basin. The dynamic uplift

Long-term Seedling Dynamics of Tree Species in a Subtropical Rain Forest, Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Hao Chang-Yang

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of demographical rates at seedling stage is critical for understanding forest composition and dynamics. We monitored the seedling dynamics of tree species in a subtropical rain forest in Fushan, northern Taiwan (24°45’ N, 121°35’ E during an 8-yr period (2003–2010. There were great temporal fluctuations in the seedling density, which might be largely driven by the pulses of seedling recruitment. Interspecific variation in the seedling abundance, however, was not related to the reproductive adult abundance. Previous studies showed that frequent typhoon disturbances contributed to the high canopy openness and high understory light availability at Fushan, which might benefit tree regeneration. But our results do not support this idea. Most of the newly recruited seedlings died within six months and only grew 1.55 ± 0.20 cm per year, which might be suppressed by the dense understory vegetation. Our results suggested that the majority of tree species in Fushan were recruitment limited, which might have important consequences for species coexistence. High temporal variability in recruitment density and low growth rates of seedlings emphasize the importance of long-term studies to our understandings of forest dynamics.

Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven T Stoddard

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Kozubek

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Since the long-term trends of different atmospheric parameters have been already studied separately in many papers, this study is focused on the stratospheric wind (zonal and meridional components and temperature over the whole globe at 10 hPa during 1979–2015. We present the trends for the whole winter (October–March, for each individual month of winter and separately for the period before and after the ozone trend turnaround during the mid-1990s. The change of ozone trends has a clear impact on trends in other investigated stratospheric parameters. Four reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE are used for comparison. Every grid point is analysed, not zonal averages. The comparison of trends in meridional wind, which is closely connected with Brewer–Dobson circulation, shows a good agreement for all four reanalyses (main features and amplitudes of the trends in terms of winter averages, but there are some differences in individual months, particularly in trend amplitude. These results could be important for studying dynamics (transport in the whole stratosphere.

Long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires in South America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, Y.; Morton, D. C.; Yin, Y. F.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.R.; DeFries, R. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2013-01-01

Background: Landscape fires in South America have considerable impacts on ecosystems, air quality and the climate system. We examined long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires for the continent during 2001-2012 using multiple satellite-derived fire

Long-term competitive dynamics of two cryptic rotifer species: diapause and fluctuating conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmen Gabaldón

Full Text Available Life-history traits may have an important role in promoting species coexistence. However, the complexity of certain life cycles makes it difficult to draw conclusions about the conditions for coexistence or exclusion based on the study of short-term competitive dynamics. Brachionus plicatilis and B. manjavacasare two cryptic rotifer species co-occurring in many lakes on the Iberian Peninsula. They have a complex life cycle in which cyclical parthenogenesis occurs with diapausing stages being the result of sexual reproduction. B. plicatilis and B. manjavacasare identical in morphology and size, their biotic niches are broadly overlapping, and they have similar competitive abilities. However, the species differ in life-history traits involving sexual reproduction and diapause, and respond differently to salinity and temperature. As in the case of certain other species that are extremely similar in morphology, a fluctuating environment are considered to be important for their coexistence. We studied the long-term competitive dynamics of B. plicatilis and B. manjavacas under different salinity regimes (constant and fluctuating. Moreover, we focused on the dynamics of the diapausing egg bank to explore how the outcome of the entire life cycle of these rotifers can work to mediate stable coexistence. We demonstrated that these species do not coexist under constant-salinity environment, as the outcome of competition is affected by the level of salinity-at low salinity, B. plicatilis excluded B. manjavacas, and the opposite outcome occurred at high salinity. Competitive dynamics under fluctuating salinity showed that the dominance of one species over the other also tended to fluctuate. The duration of co-occurrence of these species was favoured by salinity fluctuation and perhaps by the existence of a diapausing egg bank. Stable coexistence was not found in our system, which suggests that other factors or other salinity fluctuation patterns might act as

Long-term competitive dynamics of two cryptic rotifer species: diapause and fluctuating conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabaldón, Carmen; Carmona, María José; Montero-Pau, Javier; Serra, Manuel

2015-01-01

Life-history traits may have an important role in promoting species coexistence. However, the complexity of certain life cycles makes it difficult to draw conclusions about the conditions for coexistence or exclusion based on the study of short-term competitive dynamics. Brachionus plicatilis and B. manjavacasare two cryptic rotifer species co-occurring in many lakes on the Iberian Peninsula. They have a complex life cycle in which cyclical parthenogenesis occurs with diapausing stages being the result of sexual reproduction. B. plicatilis and B. manjavacasare identical in morphology and size, their biotic niches are broadly overlapping, and they have similar competitive abilities. However, the species differ in life-history traits involving sexual reproduction and diapause, and respond differently to salinity and temperature. As in the case of certain other species that are extremely similar in morphology, a fluctuating environment are considered to be important for their coexistence. We studied the long-term competitive dynamics of B. plicatilis and B. manjavacas under different salinity regimes (constant and fluctuating). Moreover, we focused on the dynamics of the diapausing egg bank to explore how the outcome of the entire life cycle of these rotifers can work to mediate stable coexistence. We demonstrated that these species do not coexist under constant-salinity environment, as the outcome of competition is affected by the level of salinity-at low salinity, B. plicatilis excluded B. manjavacas, and the opposite outcome occurred at high salinity. Competitive dynamics under fluctuating salinity showed that the dominance of one species over the other also tended to fluctuate. The duration of co-occurrence of these species was favoured by salinity fluctuation and perhaps by the existence of a diapausing egg bank. Stable coexistence was not found in our system, which suggests that other factors or other salinity fluctuation patterns might act as stabilizing

Long-term structural and biomass dynamics of virgin Tsuga canadensis-Pinus strobus forests after hurricane disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Amato, Anthony W; Orwig, David A; Foster, David R; Barker Plotkin, Audrey; Schoonmaker, Peter K; Wagner, Maggie R

2017-03-01

The development of old-growth forests in northeastern North America has largely been within the context of gap-scale disturbances given the rarity of stand-replacing disturbances. Using the 10-ha old-growth Harvard Tract and its associated 90-year history of measurements, including detailed surveys in 1989 and 2009, we document the long-term structural and biomass development of an old-growth Tsuga canadensis-Pinus strobus forest in southern New Hampshire, USA following a stand-replacing hurricane in 1938. Measurements of aboveground biomass pools were integrated with data from second- and old-growth T. canadensis forests to evaluate long-term patterns in biomass development following this disturbance. Ecosystem structure across the Tract prior to the hurricane exhibited a high degree of spatial heterogeneity with the greatest levels of live tree basal area (70-129 m 2 /ha) on upper west-facing slopes where P. strobus was dominant and intermixed with T. canadensis. Live-tree biomass estimates for these stratified mixtures ranged from 159 to 503 Mg/ha at the localized, plot scale (100 m 2 ) and averaged 367 Mg/ha across these portions of the landscape approaching the upper bounds for eastern forests. Live-tree biomass 71 years after the hurricane is more uniform and lower in magnitude, with T. canadensis currently the dominant overstory tree species throughout much of the landscape. Despite only one living P. strobus stem in the 2009 plots (and fewer than five stems known across the entire 10-ha area), the detrital legacy of this species is pronounced with localized accumulations of coarse woody debris exceeding 237.7-404.2 m 3 /ha where this species once dominated the canopy. These patterns underscore the great sizes P. strobus attained in pre-European landscapes and its great decay resistance relative to its forest associates. Total aboveground biomass pools in this 71-year-old forest (255 Mg/ha) are comparable to those in modern old-growth ecosystems

The evolution of a thermokarst-lake landscape: Late Quaternary permafrost degradation and stabilization in interior Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Mary E.; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Benjamin M.; McDowell, Patricia F.

2016-01-01

Thermokarst processes characterize a variety of ice-rich permafrost terrains and often lead to lake formation. The long-term evolution of thermokarst landscapes and the stability and longevity of lakes depend upon climate, vegetation and ground conditions, including the volume of excess ground ice and its distribution. The current lake status of thermokarst-lake landscapes and their future trajectories under climate warming are better understood in the light of their long-term development. We studied the lake-rich southern marginal upland of the Yukon Flats (northern interior Alaska) using dated lake-sediment cores, observations of river-cut exposures, and remotely-sensed data. The region features thick (up to 40 m) Quaternary deposits (mainly loess) that contain massive ground ice. Two of three studied lakes formed ~ 11,000–12,000 cal yr BP through inferred thermokarst processes, and fire may have played a role in initiating thermokarst development. From ~ 9000 cal yr BP, all lakes exhibited steady sedimentation, and pollen stratigraphies are consistent with regional patterns. The current lake expansion rates are low (0 to drainage, nor of multiple lake generations within a basin. However, LiDAR images reveal linear “corrugations” (> 5 m amplitude), deep thermo-erosional gullies, and features resembling lake drainage channels, suggesting that highly dynamic surface processes have previously shaped the landscape. Evidently, widespread early Holocene permafrost degradation and thermokarst lake initiation were followed by lake longevity and landscape stabilization, the latter possibly related to establishment of dense forest cover. Partial or complete drainage of three lakes in 2013 reveals that there is some contemporary landscape dynamism. Holocene landscape evolution in the study area differs from that described from other thermokarst-affected regions; regional responses to future environmental change may be equally individualistic.

Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Kalicinsky

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We present the analysis of annual average OH* temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed long-term dynamics. We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055 K year−1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9 K (100 SFU−1 (r2 of fit 0.6. However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07 K year−1, and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33 K year−1. This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle. A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients Csolar = (5.0 ± 0.7 K (100 SFU−1 and Chale = (1.8 ±  0.5 K (100 µT−1 (r2 = 0.71. The second way of describing the OH* temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A least-square fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8 K (100 SFU−1, a period P  =  (24.8 ± 3.3 years, and

Quantifying and Modelling Long Term Sediment Dynamics in Catchments in Western Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Notebaert, B.; De Brue, H.; Verstraeten, G.; Broothaerts, N.

2015-12-01

Quantification of sediment dynamics allows to get insight in driving forces and internal dynamics of the sediment cascade system. A useful tool to achieve this is the sediment budget approach, which encompasses the quantification of different sinks and sources. A Holocene time-differentiated sediment budget has been constructed for the Belgian Dijle River catchment (720 km²), based on a large set of field data. The results show how soil erosion is driven by land use changes over longer timescales. Sediment redistribution and the relative importance of the different sinks also vary over time, mainly as a result of changing land use and related landscape connectivity. However, the coarse temporal resolution typically associated with Holocene studies complicates the understanding of sub-millennial scale processes. In a second step, the field-based sediment budget was combined with a modeling approach using Watem/Sedem, a spatially distributed model that simulates soil erosion and colluvial deposition. After validation of the model calibration against the sediment budget, the model was used in a sensitivity analysis. Results confirm the overwhelming influence of human land use on both soil erosion and landscape connectivity, whereas the climatic impact is comparatively small. In addition to catchment-wide simulations, the model also served to test the relative importance of lynchets and dry valleys in different environments. Finally, the geomorphic model was used to simulate past land use, taking into account equifinality. For this purpose, a large series of hypothetical time-independent land use maps of the Dijle catchment were modeled based on a multi-objective allocation algorithm, and applied in Watem/Sedem. Modeled soil erosion and sediment deposition outcomes for each scenario were subsequently compared with the field-based record, taking into account uncertainties. As such, the model allows to evaluate and select realistic land use scenarios for the Holocene.

Observed long-term greening of alpine vegetation—a case study in the French Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Bradley Z.; Corona, Monica C.; Dentant, Cédric; Bonet, Richard; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe

2017-11-01

We combined imagery from multiple sources (MODIS, Landsat-5, 7, 8) with land cover data to test for long-term (1984-2015) greening or browning trends of vegetation in a temperate alpine area, the Ecrins National Park, in the context of recent climate change and domestic grazing practices. We showed that over half (56%) of the Ecrins National Park displayed significant increases in peak normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) over the last 16 years (2000-2015). Importantly, the highest proportional increases in NDVImax occurred in rocky habitats at high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.). While spatial agreement in the direction of change in NDVImax as detected by MODIS and Landsat was high (76% overlap), correlations between log-response ratio values were of moderate strength (approx. 0.3). In the context of above treeline habitats, we found that proportional increases in NDVImax were higher between 1984 and 2000 than between 2000 and 2015, suggesting a slowing of greening dynamics during the recent decade. The timing of accelerated greening prior to 2000 coincided with a pronounced increase in the amount of snow-free growing degree-days that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. In the case of grasslands and low-shrub habitats, we did not find evidence for a negative effect of grazing on greening trends, possibly due to the low grazing intensity typically found in the study area. We propose that the emergence of a longer and warmer growing season enabled high-elevation plant communities to produce more biomass, and also allowed for plant colonization of habitats previously characterized by long-lasting snow cover. Increasing plant productivity in an alpine context has potential implications for biodiversity trajectories and for ecosystem services in mountain landscapes. The presented evidence for long-term greening trends in a representative region of the European Alps provides the basis for further research on mechanisms of greening in alpine landscapes.

A study about the long-term stability of sedimentary rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshino, Naoto; Miyanomae, Shun-ichi; Inoue, Hiroyuki; Nashimoto, Yutaka

2005-02-01

In this paper, following two issues were examined and estimated, (1) the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, (2) the long term estimation of the dynamical behavior considering the condition of Horonobe area. As the study about the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, the thermal factor was focused on and the laboratory tests using test pieces which were sampled in Horonobe area were carried out under the water temperature were 20 degrees and 80 degrees. As a result, the time dependence parameter in variable-compliance-type constitutive-equation could be obtained. And comparison between creep property under 20 degrees and 80 degrees was conducted. In addition, the general properties of sedimentary soft rock under several conditions were identified by the survey of the literature. And the way how to confirm the dynamical properties of sedimentary soft rock with in-situ test were presented. For the study on the short-term and long-term stability of rock surrounding buffer materials, numerical simulations were carried out assuming several conditions. The direction of disposal tunnels and the ratio of rock strength by initial stress were estimated to be the main factor affecting the short-term stability of rock. Time dependency of rock and the stiffness of buffer material were estimated to be the main factor affecting the long-term stability of rock. (author)

Optimal control landscape for the generation of unitary transformations with constrained dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsieh, Michael; Wu, Rebing; Rabitz, Herschel; Lidar, Daniel

2010-01-01

The reliable and precise generation of quantum unitary transformations is essential for the realization of a number of fundamental objectives, such as quantum control and quantum information processing. Prior work has explored the optimal control problem of generating such unitary transformations as a surface-optimization problem over the quantum control landscape, defined as a metric for realizing a desired unitary transformation as a function of the control variables. It was found that under the assumption of nondissipative and controllable dynamics, the landscape topology is trap free, which implies that any reasonable optimization heuristic should be able to identify globally optimal solutions. The present work is a control landscape analysis, which incorporates specific constraints in the Hamiltonian that correspond to certain dynamical symmetries in the underlying physical system. It is found that the presence of such symmetries does not destroy the trap-free topology. These findings expand the class of quantum dynamical systems on which control problems are intrinsically amenable to a solution by optimal control.

Long-term spatial dynamics of Succisa pratensis in a changing rural landscape: linking dynamical modeling with historical maps

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Herben, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana; Mildén, M.; Ehrlén, J.; Cousins, S.A.O.; Eriksson, O.

2006-01-01

Roč. 94, - (2006), s. 131-143 ISSN 0022-0477 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD206/03/H137 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : spatial * dynamics * Succisa Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.239, year: 2006

Dissecting long-term adjustments of photoprotective and photo-oxidative stress acclimation occurring in dynamic light environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shizue Matsubara

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Changes in light intensity directly affect the performance of the photosynthetic apparatus. Light energy absorbed in excess of cells’ needs leads to production of reactive oxygen species and photo-oxidative damage. Excess light in both constant and dynamic environments induces photoprotective acclimation in plants. Distinct sets of signals and regulatory mechanisms are involved in acclimatory adjustment of photoprotection and photosynthesis under constant and dynamic (fluctuating light conditions. We are still far away from drawing a comprehensive picture of acclimatory signal transduction pathways, particularly in dynamic environments. In this perspective article, we propose the use of Arabidopsis plants that produce H2O2 in chloroplasts (GO plants under atmospheric CO2 levels as a tool to study the mechanisms of long-term acclimation to photo-oxidative stress. In our opinion there are new avenues to future investigations on acclimatory adjustments and signal transduction occurring in plants under dynamic light environments.

Long-term fragmentation effects on the distribution and dynamics of canopy gaps in a tropical montane forest

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholas R. Vaughn; Gregory P. Asner; Christian P. Giardina

2015-01-01

Fragmentation alters forest canopy structure through various mechanisms, which in turn drive subsequent changes to biogeochemical processes and biological diversity. Using repeated airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) mappings, we investigated the size distribution and dynamics of forest canopy gaps across a topical montane forest landscape in Hawaii naturally...

Tigers in the Terai: Strong evidence for meta-population dynamics contributing to tiger recovery and conservation in the Terai Arc Landscape.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanchan Thapa

Full Text Available The source populations of tigers are mostly confined to protected areas, which are now becoming isolated. A landscape scale conservation strategy should strive to facilitate dispersal and survival of dispersing tigers by managing habitat corridors that enable tigers to traverse the matrix with minimal conflict. We present evidence for tiger dispersal along transboundary protected areas complexes in the Terai Arc Landscape, a priority tiger landscape in Nepal and India, by comparing camera trap data, and through population models applied to the long term camera trap data sets. The former showed that 11 individual tigers used the corridors that connected the transboundary protected areas. The estimated population growth rates using the minimum observed population size in two protected areas in Nepal, Bardia National Park and Suklaphanta National Park showed that the increases were higher than expected from growth rates due to in situ reproduction alone. These lines of evidence suggests that tigers are recolonizing Nepal's protected areas from India, after a period of population decline, and that the tiger populations in the transboundary protected areas complexes may be maintained as meta-population. Our results demonstrate the importance of adopting a landscape-scale approach to tiger conservation, especially to improve population recovery and long term population persistence.

Relative phase asynchrony and long-range correlation of long-term solar magnetic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Linhua

2017-07-01

Statistical signal processing is one of the most important tasks in a large amount of areas of scientific studies, such as astrophysics, geophysics, and space physics. Phase recurrence analysis and long-range persistence are the two dynamical structures of the underlying processes for the given natural phenomenon. Linear and nonlinear time series analysis approaches (cross-correlation analysis, cross-recurrence plot, wavelet coherent transform, and Hurst analysis) are combined to investigate the relative phase interconnection and long-range correlation between solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the time interval from 1932 January to 2017 January. The following prominent results are found: (1) geomagnetic activity lags behind sunspot numbers with a phase shift of 21 months, and they have a high level of asynchronous behavior; (2) their relative phase interconnections are in phase for the periodic scales during 8-16 years, but have a mixing behavior for the periodic belts below 8 years; (3) both sunspot numbers and geomagnetic activity can not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon because their dynamical behaviors display a long-term correlation and a fractal nature. We believe that the presented conclusions could provide further information on understanding the dynamical coupling of solar dynamo process with geomagnetic activity variation, and the crucial role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the long-term climate change.

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Zachary H.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Wilson, Juliette T.

2013-01-01

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions

Sensor System for Long-term Recording of Photovoltaic (PV) IV-curves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paasch, Kasper; Nymand, Morten; Haase, Frerk

The purpose of this paper is to present a recording system for long-term investigation of PV panel dynamics under partial shading conditions. The system is intended to be a low-cost system deployable for stand-alone field use and long-term data recording at PV-plants. Passing clouds will affect...

Disturbance and topography shape nitrogen availability and δ15N over long-term forest succession

Science.gov (United States)

Forest disturbance and long-term succession can promote open N cycling that increases N loss and soil δ15N values. We examined soil and foliar patterns in N and δ15N, and soil N mineralization, across a topographically complex montane forest landscape influenced by human logging ...

Long-Term Monitoring of Water Dynamics in the Sahel Region Using the Multi-Sar

Science.gov (United States)

Bertram, A.; Wendleder, A.; Schmitt, A.; Huber, M.

2016-06-01

Fresh water is a scarce resource in the West-African Sahel region, seasonally influenced by droughts and floods. Particularly in terms of climate change, the importance of wetlands increases for flora, fauna, human population, agriculture, livestock and fishery. Hence, access to open water is a key factor. Long-term monitoring of water dynamics is of great importance, especially with regard to the spatio-temporal extend of wetlands and drylands. It can predict future trends and facilitate the development of adequate management strategies. Lake Tabalak, a Ramsar wetland of international importance, is one of the most significant ponds in Niger and a refuge for waterbirds. Nevertheless, human population growth increased the pressure on this ecosystem, which is now degrading for all uses. The main objective of the study is a long-term monitoring of the Lake Tabalak's water dynamics to delineate permanent and seasonal water bodies, using weather- and daytime-independent multi-sensor and multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data available for the study area. Data of the following sensors from 1993 until 2016 are used: Sentinel-1A, TerraSARX, ALOS PALSAR-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-1/2, and ERS-1/2. All SAR data are processed with the Multi-SAR-System, unifying the different characteristics of all above mentioned sensors in terms of geometric, radiometric and polarimetric resolution to a consistent format. The polarimetric representation in Kennaugh elements allows fusing single-polarized data acquired by older sensors with multi-polarized data acquired by current sensors. The TANH-normalization guarantees a consistent and therefore comparable description in a closed data range in terms of radiometry. The geometric aspect is solved by projecting all images to an earth-fixed coordinate system correcting the brightness by the help of the incidence angle. The elevation model used in the geocoding step is the novel global model produced by the TanDEM-X satellite

Importance of ecotone type to landscape dynamics at biome transition zones

Science.gov (United States)

Landscapes in biome transition zones consist of a mosaic of patches dominated or codominated by species from adjacent biomes. Shifts in the vegetation composition and dynamics of a biome transition zone depend upon the underlying patch dynamics of the ecotones between these dominant species. Landsc...

A method for the automated long-term monitoring of three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus shoal dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinhappel, T K; Al-Zoubi, A; Al-Diri, B; Burman, O; Dickinson, P; John, L; Wilkinson, A; Pike, T W

2014-04-01

This paper describes and evaluates a flexible, non-invasive tagging system for the automated identification and long-term monitoring of individual three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus. The system is based on barcoded tags, which can be reliably and robustly detected and decoded to provide information on an individual's identity and location. Because large numbers of fish can be individually tagged, it can be used to monitor individual- and group-level dynamics within fish shoals. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Dynamic energy landscapes of riboswitches help interpret conformational rearrangements and function.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulio Quarta

Full Text Available Riboswitches are RNAs that modulate gene expression by ligand-induced conformational changes. However, the way in which sequence dictates alternative folding pathways of gene regulation remains unclear. In this study, we compute energy landscapes, which describe the accessible secondary structures for a range of sequence lengths, to analyze the transcriptional process as a given sequence elongates to full length. In line with experimental evidence, we find that most riboswitch landscapes can be characterized by three broad classes as a function of sequence length in terms of the distribution and barrier type of the conformational clusters: low-barrier landscape with an ensemble of different conformations in equilibrium before encountering a substrate; barrier-free landscape in which a direct, dominant "downhill" pathway to the minimum free energy structure is apparent; and a barrier-dominated landscape with two isolated conformational states, each associated with a different biological function. Sharing concepts with the "new view" of protein folding energy landscapes, we term the three sequence ranges above as the sensing, downhill folding, and functional windows, respectively. We find that these energy landscape patterns are conserved in various riboswitch classes, though the order of the windows may vary. In fact, the order of the three windows suggests either kinetic or thermodynamic control of ligand binding. These findings help understand riboswitch structure/function relationships and open new avenues to riboswitch design.

Climate change impact on landscape fire and forest biomass dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, C.

2004-01-01

The aim of this study was to improve current understandings of fire regimes. The estimation of biomass dynamics at the stand scale is essential for understanding landscape scale biomass dynamics, particularly in order to understand the potential effects of fire regimes. This study presented a synthesis of research results obtained from stand scale studies together with fire behaviour and weather variables. Landscape structure, topography and climate conditions were also considered. Integration of the data was conducted with the SEM-LAND model, a spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics. Equations for the model were presented, including fire initiation and spread, as well as a lightning fire process and simulated fire suppression. Results indicated that fire suppression could alter the distribution of fire sizes. The effect of tree and stand mortality on forest biomass estimates was also discussed along with the impact of climate change on fire regimes. Results indicate that fire activities are likely to increase. Results also demonstrate that fire frequency and size distribution are correlated without human intervention. Theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution is not always supported by empirical observations. Point-based fire frequency and fire cycle definitions are special cases from a computational perspective. Detection of quantitative interrelationships may simplify preconditions for estimating fire regimes, and serve as a means to address incomplete empirical observations. 12 refs., 3 figs

The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

Science.gov (United States)

Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

2006-01-01

Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

2013-01-01

An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

Landscape Dynamics on the Island of La Gonave, Haiti, 1990–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa M. Kennedy

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The island of La Gonave lies northwest of Port-au-Prince and is representative of the subsistence Haitian lifestyle. Little is known about the land cover changes and conversion rates on La Gonave. Using Landsat images from 1990 to 2010, this research investigates landscape dynamics through image classification, change detection, and landscape pattern analysis. Five land cover classes were considered: Agriculture, Forest/Dense Vegetation (DV, Shrub, Barren/Eroded, and Nonforested Wetlands. Overall image classification accuracy was 87%. Results of land cover change analysis show that all major land cover types experienced substantial changes from 1990 to 2010. The area percent change was −39.7, −22.7, 87.4, and −7.0 for Agriculture, Forest/Dense Vegetation, Shrub, and Barren/Eroded. Landscape pattern analysis illustrated the encroachment of Shrub cover in core Forest/DV patches and the decline of Agricultural patch integrity. Agricultural abandonment, deforestation, and forest regrowth combined to generate a dynamic island landscape, resulting in higher levels of land cover fragmentation.

Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

Science.gov (United States)

Gosz, J.

2001-12-01

The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage

Landscape genetics highlights the role of bank vole metapopulation dynamics in the epidemiology of Puumala hantavirus.

Science.gov (United States)

Guivier, E; Galan, M; Chaval, Y; Xuéreb, A; Ribas Salvador, A; Poulle, M-L; Voutilainen, L; Henttonen, H; Charbonnel, N; Cosson, J F

2011-09-01

Rodent host dynamics and dispersal are thought to be critical for hantavirus epidemiology as they determine pathogen persistence and transmission within and between host populations. We used landscape genetics to investigate how the population dynamics of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, the host of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), vary with forest fragmentation and influence PUUV epidemiology. We sampled vole populations within the Ardennes, a French PUUV endemic area. We inferred demographic features such as population size, isolation and migration with regard to landscape configuration. We next analysed the influence of M. glareolus population dynamics on PUUV spatial distribution. Our results revealed that the global metapopulation dynamics of bank voles were strongly shaped by landscape features, including suitable patch size and connectivity. Large effective size in forest might therefore contribute to the higher observed levels of PUUV prevalence. By contrast, populations from hedge networks highly suffered from genetic drift and appeared strongly isolated from all other populations. This might result in high probabilities of local extinction for both M. glareolus and PUUV. Besides, we detected signatures of asymmetric bank vole migration from forests to hedges. These movements were likely to sustain PUUV in fragmented landscapes. In conclusion, our study provided arguments in favour of source-sink dynamics shaping PUUV persistence and spread in heterogeneous, Western European temperate landscapes. It illustrated the potential contribution of landscape genetics to the understanding of the epidemiological processes occurring at this local scale. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

OpenAIRE

Laura Alfaro; Fabio Kanczuk

2007-01-01

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve fo...

Long-term ecosystem nitrogen storage and soil nitrogen availability in post-fire lodgepole pine ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Erica A. H. Smithwick; Daniel M. Kashian; Michael G. Ryan; Monica G.  Turner

2009-01-01

Long-term, landscape patterns in inorganic nitrogen (N) availability and N stocks following infrequent, stand-replacing fire are unknown but are important for interpreting the effect of disturbances on ecosystem function. Here, we present results from a replicated chronosequence study in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Wyoming, USA) directed at measuring inorganic N...

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Lima

Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Time series evaluation of landscape dynamics using annual Landsat imagery and spatial statistical modeling: Evidence from the Phoenix metropolitan region

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Rey, Sergio J.; Li, Wenwen

2017-06-01

Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth's land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective.

Critical neural networks with short- and long-term plasticity

Science.gov (United States)

Michiels van Kessenich, L.; Luković, M.; de Arcangelis, L.; Herrmann, H. J.

2018-03-01

In recent years self organized critical neuronal models have provided insights regarding the origin of the experimentally observed avalanching behavior of neuronal systems. It has been shown that dynamical synapses, as a form of short-term plasticity, can cause critical neuronal dynamics. Whereas long-term plasticity, such as Hebbian or activity dependent plasticity, have a crucial role in shaping the network structure and endowing neural systems with learning abilities. In this work we provide a model which combines both plasticity mechanisms, acting on two different time scales. The measured avalanche statistics are compatible with experimental results for both the avalanche size and duration distribution with biologically observed percentages of inhibitory neurons. The time series of neuronal activity exhibits temporal bursts leading to 1 /f decay in the power spectrum. The presence of long-term plasticity gives the system the ability to learn binary rules such as xor, providing the foundation of future research on more complicated tasks such as pattern recognition.

A 'Turing' Test for Landscape Evolution Models

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, A. J.; Wise, S. M.; Wainwright, J.; Swift, D. A.

2008-12-01

Resolving the interactions among tectonics, climate and surface processes at long timescales has benefited from the development of computer models of landscape evolution. However, testing these Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) has been piecemeal and partial. We argue that a more systematic approach is required. What is needed is a test that will establish how 'realistic' an LEM is and thus the extent to which its predictions may be trusted. We propose a test based upon the Turing Test of artificial intelligence as a way forward. In 1950 Alan Turing posed the question of whether a machine could think. Rather than attempt to address the question directly he proposed a test in which an interrogator asked questions of a person and a machine, with no means of telling which was which. If the machine's answer could not be distinguished from those of the human, the machine could be said to demonstrate artificial intelligence. By analogy, if an LEM cannot be distinguished from a real landscape it can be deemed to be realistic. The Turing test of intelligence is a test of the way in which a computer behaves. The analogy in the case of an LEM is that it should show realistic behaviour in terms of form and process, both at a given moment in time (punctual) and in the way both form and process evolve over time (dynamic). For some of these behaviours, tests already exist. For example there are numerous morphometric tests of punctual form and measurements of punctual process. The test discussed in this paper provides new ways of assessing dynamic behaviour of an LEM over realistically long timescales. However challenges remain in developing an appropriate suite of challenging tests, in applying these tests to current LEMs and in developing LEMs that pass them.

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

Science.gov (United States)

Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

Adopting an ecological view of metropolitan landscape: the case of "three circles" system for ecological construction and restoration in Beijing area.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Xin-shi

2004-01-01

Ecological construction and restoration for sustainable development are now a driving paradigm. It is increasingly recognized that ecological principles, especially landscape ecology theory, are not only necessary but also essential to maintain the long-term sustainability worldwide. Key landscape ecology principles-element, structure and process, dynamics, heterogeneity, hierarchies, connectivity, place and time were reviewed, and use Beijing area as a case study to illustrate how these principles might be applied to ecological construction and restoration, to eventually achieve sustainability. An example to more effectively incorporate the ecological principles in sustainable planning in China was presented.

Short-term and long-term Interconnectedness of stock returns in Western Europe and the global market

OpenAIRE

Panda, Ajaya Kumar; Nanda, Swagatika

2017-01-01

Background: The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market, using time series techniques. Methods: Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013. Results: The study finds that the market returns of Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France are relatively less dynam...

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

LONG-TERM MONITORING OF WATER DYNAMICS IN THE SAHEL REGION USING THE MULTI-SAR-SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Bertram

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Fresh water is a scarce resource in the West-African Sahel region, seasonally influenced by droughts and floods. Particularly in terms of climate change, the importance of wetlands increases for flora, fauna, human population, agriculture, livestock and fishery. Hence, access to open water is a key factor. Long-term monitoring of water dynamics is of great importance, especially with regard to the spatio-temporal extend of wetlands and drylands. It can predict future trends and facilitate the development of adequate management strategies. Lake Tabalak, a Ramsar wetland of international importance, is one of the most significant ponds in Niger and a refuge for waterbirds. Nevertheless, human population growth increased the pressure on this ecosystem, which is now degrading for all uses. The main objective of the study is a long-term monitoring of the Lake Tabalak’s water dynamics to delineate permanent and seasonal water bodies, using weather- and daytime-independent multi-sensor and multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR data available for the study area. Data of the following sensors from 1993 until 2016 are used: Sentinel-1A, TerraSARX, ALOS PALSAR-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-1/2, and ERS-1/2. All SAR data are processed with the Multi-SAR-System, unifying the different characteristics of all above mentioned sensors in terms of geometric, radiometric and polarimetric resolution to a consistent format. The polarimetric representation in Kennaugh elements allows fusing single-polarized data acquired by older sensors with multi-polarized data acquired by current sensors. The TANH-normalization guarantees a consistent and therefore comparable description in a closed data range in terms of radiometry. The geometric aspect is solved by projecting all images to an earth-fixed coordinate system correcting the brightness by the help of the incidence angle. The elevation model used in the geocoding step is the novel global model produced by the

Consequences of landscape patterns on the genetic composition of remnant hardwood stands in the Southeast: A pilot study.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godt, Mary Jo, W.; Hamrick, J., L.

2003-01-01

Report of a pilot study intended to generate genetic data for a tree species in fragmented hardwood stands. It was anticipated that this data would permit assessment of the feasibility of long-term genetic research for which external funding support could be generated. A second objective was to initiate studies that addressed fundamental questions of how landscape structure, in conjunction with the population dynamics and reproductive characteristics of the tree species, influences genetic structure and long-term viability of hardwood forest stands on the Savannah River Site and in similar southeastern landscapes. Fragmentation of plant habitats can result in small, genetically isolated populations. Spatial isolation and small population size may have several consequences, including reduced reproduction, increased inbreeding and the stochastic loss of genetic variability. Such losses of genetic and genotypic diversity can reduce plant fitness and may diminish population viability. Deleterious genetic effects resulting from small population sizes can be ameliorated by gene flow via pollen and seed into fragmented populations.

A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

OpenAIRE

Achdou , Yves; Giraud , Pierre-Noel; Lasry , Jean-Michel; Lions , Pierre-Louis

2016-01-01

International audience; A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is descr...

Medium-term dynamics of a middle Adriatic barred beach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Postacchini

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, attention has been paid to beach protection by means of soft and hard defenses. Along the Italian coast of the Adriatic Sea, sandy beaches are the most common landscape feature and around 70 % of the Marche region's coast (central Adriatic is protected by defense structures. The longest free-from-obstacle nearshore area in the region includes the beach of Senigallia, frequently monitored in the last decades and characterized by a multiple bar system, which represents a natural beach defense. The bathymetries surveyed in 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 show long-term stability, confirmed by a good adaptation of an analyzed stretch of the beach to the Dean-type equilibrium profile, though a strong short- to medium-term variability of the wave climate has been observed during the monitored periods. The medium-term dynamics of the beach, which deal with the evolution of submerged bars and are of the order of years or seasons, have been related to the wave climate collected, during the analyzed temporal windows, by a wave buoy located about 40 km off Senigallia. An overall interpretation of the hydrodynamics, sediment characteristics and seabed morphology suggests that the wave climate is fundamental for the morphodynamic changes of the beach in the medium term. These medium-term time ranges during which waves mainly come from NNE/ESE are characterized by a larger/smaller steepness and by a larger/smaller relative wave height, and seem to induce seaward/shoreward bar migration as well as bar smoothing/steepening. Moving southeastward, the bar dimension increases, while the equilibrium profile shape suggests the adaptation to a decreasing sediment size in the submerged beach. This is probably due to the presence of both the harbor jetty and river mouth north of the investigated area.

Conservation of butterfly populations in dynamic landscapes: The role of farming practices and landscape mosaic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Aviron, S.; Kindlmann, Pavel; Burel, F.

2007-01-01

Roč. 205, 1-2 (2007), s. 135-145 ISSN 0304-3800 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA6087301; GA MŠk LC06073; GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Connectivity * Landscape dynamics * Resource disturbance * Movement * Simulation model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.077, year: 2007

Strong Selection Significantly Increases Epistatic Interactions in the Long-Term Evolution of a Protein.

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Aditi Gupta

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Epistatic interactions between residues determine a protein's adaptability and shape its evolutionary trajectory. When a protein experiences a changed environment, it is under strong selection to find a peak in the new fitness landscape. It has been shown that strong selection increases epistatic interactions as well as the ruggedness of the fitness landscape, but little is known about how the epistatic interactions change under selection in the long-term evolution of a protein. Here we analyze the evolution of epistasis in the protease of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1 using protease sequences collected for almost a decade from both treated and untreated patients, to understand how epistasis changes and how those changes impact the long-term evolvability of a protein. We use an information-theoretic proxy for epistasis that quantifies the co-variation between sites, and show that positive information is a necessary (but not sufficient condition that detects epistasis in most cases. We analyze the "fossils" of the evolutionary trajectories of the protein contained in the sequence data, and show that epistasis continues to enrich under strong selection, but not for proteins whose environment is unchanged. The increase in epistasis compensates for the information loss due to sequence variability brought about by treatment, and facilitates adaptation in the increasingly rugged fitness landscape of treatment. While epistasis is thought to enhance evolvability via valley-crossing early-on in adaptation, it can hinder adaptation later when the landscape has turned rugged. However, we find no evidence that the HIV-1 protease has reached its potential for evolution after 9 years of adapting to a drug environment that itself is constantly changing. We suggest that the mechanism of encoding new information into pairwise interactions is central to protein evolution not just in HIV-1 protease, but for any protein adapting to a changing

Investing in rangeland restoration in the Arid West, USA: countering the effects of an invasive weed on the long-term fire cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey; Nalle, Darek

2009-01-01

In large areas of the arid western United States, much of which are federally managed, fire frequencies and associated management costs are escalating as flammable, invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) increases its stronghold. Cheatgrass invasion and the subsequent increase in fire frequency result in the loss of native vegetation, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, and increased costs and risk associated with firefighting. Revegetation following fire on land that is partially invaded by cheatgrass can reduce both the dominance of cheatgrass and its associated high fire rate. Thus restoration can be viewed as an investment in fire-prevention and, if native seed is used, an investment in maintaining native vegetation on the landscape. Here we develop and employ a Markov model of vegetation dynamics for the sagebrush steppe ecosystem to predict vegetation change and management costs under different intensities and types of post-fire revegetation. We use the results to estimate the minimum total cost curves for maintaining native vegetation on the landscape and for preventing cheatgrass dominance. Our results show that across a variety of model parameter possibilities, increased investment in post-fire revegetation reduces long-term fire management costs by more than enough to offset the costs of revegetation. These results support that a policy of intensive post-fire revegetation will reduce long-term management costs for this ecosystem, in addition to providing environmental benefits. This information may help justify costs associated with revegetation and raise the priority of restoration in federal land budgets.

Dynamic Regulation of Circulating microRNAs During Acute Exercise and Long-Term Exercise Training in Basketball Athletes

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Yongqin Li

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Emerging evidence indicates the beneficial effects of physical exercise on human health, which depends on the intensity, training time, exercise type, environmental factors, and the personal health status. Conventional biomarkers provide limited insight into the exercise-induced adaptive processes. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs, miRs are dynamically regulated in response to acute exhaustive exercise and sustained rowing, running and cycling exercises. However, circulating miRNAs in response to long-term basketball exercise remains unknown. Here, we enrolled 10 basketball athletes who will attend a basketball season for 3 months. Specifically, circulating miRNAs which were involved in angiogenesis, inflammation and enriched in muscle and/or cardiac tissues were analyzed at baseline, immediately following acute exhaustive exercise and after 3-month basketball matches in competitive male basketball athletes. Circulating miR-208b was decreased and miR-221 was increased after 3-month basketball exercise, while circulating miR-221, miR-21, miR-146a, and miR-210 were reduced at post-acute exercise. The change of miR-146a (baseline vs. post-acute exercise showed linear correlations with baseline levels of cardiac marker CKMB and the changes of inflammation marker Hs-CRP (baseline vs. post-acute exercise. Besides, linear correlation was observed between miR-208b changes (baseline vs. after long-term exercise and AT VO2 (baseline. The changes of miR-221 (baseline vs. after long-term exercise were significantly correlated with AT VO2, peak work load and CK (after 3-month basketball matches. Although further studies are needed, present findings set the stage for defining circulating miRNAs as biomarkers and suggesting their physiological roles in long-term exercise training induced cardiovascular adaptation.

Dynamic Regulation of Circulating microRNAs During Acute Exercise and Long-Term Exercise Training in Basketball Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yongqin; Yao, Mengchao; Zhou, Qiulian; Cheng, Yan; Che, Lin; Xu, Jiahong; Xiao, Junjie; Shen, Zhongming; Bei, Yihua

2018-01-01

Emerging evidence indicates the beneficial effects of physical exercise on human health, which depends on the intensity, training time, exercise type, environmental factors, and the personal health status. Conventional biomarkers provide limited insight into the exercise-induced adaptive processes. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs, miRs) are dynamically regulated in response to acute exhaustive exercise and sustained rowing, running and cycling exercises. However, circulating miRNAs in response to long-term basketball exercise remains unknown. Here, we enrolled 10 basketball athletes who will attend a basketball season for 3 months. Specifically, circulating miRNAs which were involved in angiogenesis, inflammation and enriched in muscle and/or cardiac tissues were analyzed at baseline, immediately following acute exhaustive exercise and after 3-month basketball matches in competitive male basketball athletes. Circulating miR-208b was decreased and miR-221 was increased after 3-month basketball exercise, while circulating miR-221, miR-21, miR-146a, and miR-210 were reduced at post-acute exercise. The change of miR-146a (baseline vs. post-acute exercise) showed linear correlations with baseline levels of cardiac marker CKMB and the changes of inflammation marker Hs-CRP (baseline vs. post-acute exercise). Besides, linear correlation was observed between miR-208b changes (baseline vs. after long-term exercise) and AT VO 2 (baseline). The changes of miR-221 (baseline vs. after long-term exercise) were significantly correlated with AT VO 2 , peak work load and CK (after 3-month basketball matches). Although further studies are needed, present findings set the stage for defining circulating miRNAs as biomarkers and suggesting their physiological roles in long-term exercise training induced cardiovascular adaptation.

Changes in Landscape Pattern of Wetland around Hangzhou Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Wenpeng; Li, Yuan; Xu, Dan; Zeng, Ying

2018-04-01

Hangzhou Bay is an important estuarial coastal wetland, which offers a large number of land and ecological resources. It plays a significant role in the sustainable development of resources, environment and economy. In this paper, based on the remote sensing images in 1996, 2005 and 2013, we extracted the coastal wetland data and analyzed the wetland landscape pattern of the Hangzhou Bay in the past 20 years. The results show that: (1) the area of coastal wetland is heading downwards in the recent decades. Paddy field and the coastal wetland diminish greatly. (2) the single dynamic degree of wetland of the Hangzhou Bay displays that paddy fields and coastal wetlands are shrinking, but lakes, reservoirs and ponds are constantly expanding. (3) the wetland landscape pattern index shows that total patch area of the coastal wetland and paddy fields have gradually diminished. The Shannon diversity index, the Shannon evenness index as well as the landscape separation index of the coastal wetlands in the Hangzhou Bay increase steadily. The landscape pattern in the study area has shown a trend of high fragmentation, dominance decreases, but some dominant landscape still exist in this region. (4) Urbanization and natural factors lead to the reduction of wetland area. Besides the pressure of population is a major threat to the wetland. The study will provide scientific basis for long-term planning for this region.

Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon Jin Park

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Janes, Victoria; Whitehead, Paul G; Dadson, Simon J; Holman, Ian P

2017-07-15

The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term spatial and temporal microbial community dynamics in a large-scale drinking water distribution system with multiple disinfectant regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Potgieter, Sarah; Pinto, Ameet; Sigudu, Makhosazana; du Preez, Hein; Ncube, Esper; Venter, Stephanus

2018-08-01

Long-term spatial-temporal investigations of microbial dynamics in full-scale drinking water distribution systems are scarce. These investigations can reveal the process, infrastructure, and environmental factors that influence the microbial community, offering opportunities to re-think microbial management in drinking water systems. Often, these insights are missed or are unreliable in short-term studies, which are impacted by stochastic variabilities inherent to large full-scale systems. In this two-year study, we investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the microbial community in a large, full scale South African drinking water distribution system that uses three successive disinfection strategies (i.e. chlorination, chloramination and hypochlorination). Monthly bulk water samples were collected from the outlet of the treatment plant and from 17 points in the distribution system spanning nearly 150 km and the bacterial community composition was characterised by Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene. Like previous studies, Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria dominated the drinking water bacterial communities, with an increase in Betaproteobacteria post-chloramination. In contrast with previous reports, the observed richness, diversity, and evenness of the bacterial communities were higher in the winter months as opposed to the summer months in this study. In addition to temperature effects, the seasonal variations were also likely to be influenced by changes in average water age in the distribution system and corresponding changes in disinfectant residual concentrations. Spatial dynamics of the bacterial communities indicated distance decay, with bacterial communities becoming increasingly dissimilar with increasing distance between sampling locations. These spatial effects dampened the temporal changes in the bulk water community and were the dominant factor when considering the entire distribution system. However

Nonlinear Recurrent Dynamics and Long-Term Nonstationarities in EEG Alpha Cortical Activity: Implications for Choosing Adequate Segment Length in Nonlinear EEG Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Cerquera, Alexander; Vollebregt, Madelon A; Arns, Martijn

2018-03-01

Nonlinear analysis of EEG recordings allows detection of characteristics that would probably be neglected by linear methods. This study aimed to determine a suitable epoch length for nonlinear analysis of EEG data based on its recurrence rate in EEG alpha activity (electrodes Fz, Oz, and Pz) from 28 healthy and 64 major depressive disorder subjects. Two nonlinear metrics, Lempel-Ziv complexity and scaling index, were applied in sliding windows of 20 seconds shifted every 1 second and in nonoverlapping windows of 1 minute. In addition, linear spectral analysis was carried out for comparison with the nonlinear results. The analysis with sliding windows showed that the cortical dynamics underlying alpha activity had a recurrence period of around 40 seconds in both groups. In the analysis with nonoverlapping windows, long-term nonstationarities entailed changes over time in the nonlinear dynamics that became significantly different between epochs across time, which was not detected with the linear spectral analysis. Findings suggest that epoch lengths shorter than 40 seconds neglect information in EEG nonlinear studies. In turn, linear analysis did not detect characteristics from long-term nonstationarities in EEG alpha waves of control subjects and patients with major depressive disorder patients. We recommend that application of nonlinear metrics in EEG time series, particularly of alpha activity, should be carried out with epochs around 60 seconds. In addition, this study aimed to demonstrate that long-term nonlinearities are inherent to the cortical brain dynamics regardless of the presence or absence of a mental disorder.

An agar gel membrane-PDMS hybrid microfluidic device for long term single cell dynamic study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Ieong; Atsumi, Shota; Huang, Wei-Chih; Wu, Tung-Yun; Hanai, Taizo; Lam, Miu-Ling; Tang, Ping; Yang, Jian; Liao, James C; Ho, Chih-Ming

2010-10-21

Significance of single cell measurements stems from the substantial temporal fluctuations and cell-cell variability possessed by individual cells. A major difficulty in monitoring surface non-adherent cells such as bacteria and yeast is that these cells tend to aggregate into clumps during growth, obstructing the tracking or identification of single-cells over long time periods. Here, we developed a microfluidic platform for long term single-cell tracking and cultivation with continuous media refreshing and dynamic chemical perturbation capability. The design highlights a simple device-assembly process between PDMS microchannel and agar membrane through conformal contact, and can be easily adapted by microbiologists for their routine laboratory use. The device confines cell growth in monolayer between an agar membrane and a glass surface. Efficient nutrient diffusion through the membrane and reliable temperature maintenance provide optimal growth condition for the cells, which exhibited fast exponential growth and constant distribution of cell sizes. More than 24 h of single-cell tracking was demonstrated on a transcription-metabolism integrated synthetic biological model, the gene-metabolic oscillator. Single cell morphology study under alcohol toxicity allowed us to discover and characterize cell filamentation exhibited by different E. coli isobutanol tolerant strains. We believe this novel device will bring new capabilities to quantitative microbiology, providing a versatile platform for single cell dynamic studies.

Long-term Health and Socioeconomic Impacts of Landscape Fire Emissions in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Jina, A.; Marlier, M. E.

2013-12-01

Among natural disasters, wildfires are perhaps the most complex case of a coupled human-natural system, with both direct and indirect costs to society. A major contributor to these indirect costs is the impact upon health in the short- and long-term. Air pollution from fires is associated with more deaths from cardio-pulmonary diseases, yet little or no research has looked beyond the short-term mortality and morbidity associated with wildfire pollution, particularly in developing countries where impacts may be greatest but monitoring presents a constant challenge. We address this by using an interdisciplinary approach combining modeled air pollution with econometric methods to identify the long-term effects of air pollution on health and cognitive ability. These impacts will persist in society, and can lead to decreased education, loss of earnings, and a suppression of economic activity. We take the case of Indonesia, which is prone to large, catastrophic fires during El Niño conditions. Satellite data partially compensate for the lack of monitoring data for air pollution, but there are still significant gaps in data availability and difficulty in retrieving surface concentrations. In this study, surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations at 2x2.5° resolution are obtained from GISS-E2-Puccini (the new version of the NASA GISS ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM)), run with monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). 24-hour ambient PM2.5 concentrations across Indonesia are matched to geographically and socioeconomic surveys. We find that exposure to high levels of PM2.5 at birth (and in utero) has negative impacts upon physical development of infants. This is associated with health problems later in life, as well as lower educational and labor market outcomes. A one standard deviation increase in ambient air pollution exposure leads to effects comparable to those from indoor air pollution. We also find a

Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yang, X.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

1998-01-01

This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tech-nique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with

Conversion of short-term to long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Shannon J; Deshpande, Kaivalya; Stinnett, Gwen S; Seasholtz, Audrey F; Murphy, Geoffrey G

2013-10-01

It is well-known that stress can significantly impact learning; however, whether this effect facilitates or impairs the resultant memory depends on the characteristics of the stressor. Investigation of these dynamics can be confounded by the role of the stressor in motivating performance in a task. Positing a cohesive model of the effect of stress on learning and memory necessitates elucidating the consequences of stressful stimuli independently from task-specific functions. Therefore, the goal of this study was to examine the effect of manipulating a task-independent stressor (elevated light level) on short-term and long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm. Short-term memory was elicited in both low light and high light conditions, but long-term memory specifically required high light conditions during the acquisition phase (familiarization trial) and was independent of the light level during retrieval (test trial). Additionally, long-term memory appeared to be independent of stress-mediated glucocorticoid release, as both low and high light produced similar levels of plasma corticosterone, which further did not correlate with subsequent memory performance. Finally, both short-term and long-term memory showed no savings between repeated experiments suggesting that this novel object recognition paradigm may be useful for longitudinal studies, particularly when investigating treatments to stabilize or enhance weak memories in neurodegenerative diseases or during age-related cognitive decline. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term dynamic loading improves the mechanical properties of chondrogenic mesenchymal stem cell-laden hydrogel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AH Huang

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs are an attractive cell source for cartilage tissue engineering given their ability to undergo chondrogenesis in 3D culture systems. Mechanical forces play an important role in regulating both cartilage development and MSC chondrogenic gene expression, however, mechanical stimulation has yet to enhance the mechanical properties of engineered constructs. In this study, we applied long-term dynamic compression to MSC-seeded constructs and assessed whether varying pre-culture duration, loading regimens and inclusion of TGF-beta3 during loading would influence functional outcomes and these phenotypic transitions. Loading initiated before chondrogenesis decreased functional maturation, although chondrogenic gene expression increased. In contrast, loading initiated after chondrogenesis and matrix elaboration further improved the mechanical properties of MSC-based constructs, but only when TGF-beta3 levels were maintained and under specific loading parameters. Although matrix quantity was not affected by dynamic compression, matrix distribution, assessed histologically and by FT-IRIS analysis, was significantly improved on the micro- (pericellular and macro- (construct expanse scales. Further, whole genome expression profiling revealed marked shifts in the molecular topography with dynamic loading. These results demonstrate, for the first time, that dynamic compressive loading initiated after a sufficient period of chondro-induction and with sustained TGF-beta exposure enhances matrix distribution and the mechanical properties of MSC-seeded constructs.

Automated Detection of Knickpoints and Knickzones Across Transient Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Gailleton, B.; Mudd, S. M.; Clubb, F. J.

2017-12-01

Mountainous regions are ubiquitously dissected by river channels, which transmit climate and tectonic signals to the rest of the landscape by adjusting their long profiles. Fluvial response to allogenic forcing is often expressed through the upstream propagation of steepened reaches, referred to as knickpoints or knickzones. The identification and analysis of these steepened reaches has numerous applications in geomorphology, such as modelling long-term landscape evolution, understanding controls on fluvial incision, and constraining tectonic uplift histories. Traditionally, the identification of knickpoints or knickzones from fluvial profiles requires manual selection or calibration. This process is both time-consuming and subjective, as different workers may select different steepened reaches within the profile. We propose an objective, statistically-based method to systematically pick knickpoints/knickzones on a landscape scale using an outlier-detection algorithm. Our method integrates river profiles normalised by drainage area (Chi, using the approach of Perron and Royden, 2013), then separates the chi-elevation plots into a series of transient segments using the method of Mudd et al. (2014). This method allows the systematic detection of knickpoints across a DEM, regardless of size, using a high-performance algorithm implemented in the open-source Edinburgh Land Surface Dynamics Topographic Tools (LSDTopoTools) software package. After initial knickpoint identification, outliers are selected using several sorting and binning methods based on the Median Absolute Deviation, to avoid the influence sample size. We test our method on a series of DEMs and grid resolutions, and show that our method consistently identifies accurate knickpoint locations across each landscape tested.

Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II

Science.gov (United States)

DeJager, Nathan R.; Drohan, Patrick J.; Miranda, Brian M.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Stout, Susan L.; Royo, Alejandro; Gustafson, Eric J.; Romanski, Mark C.

2017-01-01

Browsing ungulates alter forest productivity and vegetation succession through selective foraging on species that often dominate early succession. However, the long-term and large-scale effects of browsing on forest succession are not possible to project without the use of simulation models. To explore the effects of ungulates on succession in a spatially explicit manner, we developed a Browse Extension that simulates the effects of browsing ungulates on the growth and survival of plant species cohorts within the LANDIS-II spatially dynamic forest landscape simulation model framework. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extension and explore the spatial effects of ungulates on forest composition and dynamics using two case studies. The first case study examined the long-term effects of persistently high white-tailed deer browsing rates in the northern hardwood forests of the Allegheny National Forest, USA. In the second case study, we incorporated a dynamic ungulate population model to simulate interactions between the moose population and boreal forest landscape of Isle Royale National Park, USA. In both model applications, browsing reduced total aboveground live biomass and caused shifts in forest composition. Simulations that included effects of browsing resulted in successional patterns that were more similar to those observed in the study regions compared to simulations that did not incorporate browsing effects. Further, model estimates of moose population density and available forage biomass were similar to previously published field estimates at Isle Royale and in other moose-boreal forest systems. Our simulations suggest that neglecting effects of browsing when modeling forest succession in ecosystems known to be influenced by ungulates may result in flawed predictions of aboveground biomass and tree species composition.

Temporal bird community dynamics are strongly affected by landscape fragmentation in a Central American tropical forest region

Science.gov (United States)

Blandón, A.C.; Perelman, S.B.; Ramírez, M.; López, A.; Javier, O.; Robbins, Chandler S.

2016-01-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation are considered the main causes of species extinctions, particularly in tropical ecosystems. The objective of this work was to evaluate the temporal dynamics of tropical bird communities in landscapes with different levels of fragmentation in eastern Guatemala. We evaluated five bird community dynamic parameters for forest specialists and generalists: (1) species extinction, (2) species turnover, (3) number of colonizing species, (4) relative species richness, and (5) a homogeneity index. For each of 24 landscapes, community dynamic parameters were estimated from bird point count data, for the 1998–1999 and 2008–2009 periods, accounting for species’ detection probability. Forest specialists had higher extinction rates and a smaller number of colonizing species in landscapes with higher fragmentation, thus having lower species richness in both time periods. Alternatively, forest generalists elicited a completely different pattern, showing a curvilinear association to forest fragmentation for most parameters. Thus, greater community dynamism for forest generalists was shown in landscapes with intermediate levels of fragmentation. Our study supports general theory regarding the expected negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on the temporal dynamics of biotic communities, particularly for forest specialists, providing strong evidence from understudied tropical bird communities.

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics Branch

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Jim; Melcher, C.; Bowen, Z.

2009-01-01

Complex natural resource issues require understanding a web of interactions among ecosystem components that are (1) interdisciplinary, encompassing physical, chemical, and biological processes; (2) spatially complex, involving movements of animals, water, and airborne materials across a range of landscapes and jurisdictions; and (3) temporally complex, occurring over days, weeks, or years, sometimes involving response lags to alteration or exhibiting large natural variation. Scientists in the Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, investigate a diversity of these complex natural resource questions at the landscape and systems levels. This Fact Sheet describes the work of the Ecosystems Dynamics Branch, which is focused on energy and land use, climate change and long-term integrated assessments, herbivore-ecosystem interactions, fire and post-fire restoration, and environmental flows and river restoration.

In Vitro Experimental Model for the Long-Term Analysis of Cellular Dynamics During Bronchial Tree Development from Lung Epithelial Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagiwara, Masaya; Maruta, Naomichi; Marumoto, Moegi

2017-06-01

Lung branching morphogenesis has been studied for decades, but the underlying developmental mechanisms are still not fully understood. Cellular movements dynamically change during the branching process, but it is difficult to observe long-term cellular dynamics by in vivo or tissue culture experiments. Therefore, developing an in vitro experimental model of bronchial tree would provide an essential tool for developmental biology, pathology, and systems biology. In this study, we succeeded in reconstructing a bronchial tree in vitro by using primary human bronchial epithelial cells. A high concentration gradient of bronchial epithelial cells was required for branching initiation, whereas homogeneously distributed endothelial cells induced the formation of successive branches. Subsequently, the branches grew in size to the order of millimeter. The developed model contains only two types of cells and it facilitates the analysis of lung branching morphogenesis. By taking advantage of our experimental model, we carried out long-term time-lapse observations, which revealed self-assembly, collective migration with leader cells, rotational motion, and spiral motion of epithelial cells in each developmental event. Mathematical simulation was also carried out to analyze the self-assembly process and it revealed simple rules that govern cellular dynamics. Our experimental model has provided many new insights into lung development and it has the potential to accelerate the study of developmental mechanisms, pattern formation, left-right asymmetry, and disease pathogenesis of the human lung.

Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Valori, Luca; Picciolo, Francesco; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego

2012-01-24

An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.

Long-term evaluation of orbital dynamics in the Sun-planet system considering axial-tilt

Science.gov (United States)

Bakhtiari, Majid; Daneshjou, Kamran

2018-05-01

In this paper, the axial-tilt (obliquity) effect of planets on the motion of planets’ orbiter in prolonged space missions has been investigated in the presence of the Sun gravity. The proposed model is based on non-simplified perturbed dynamic equations of planetary orbiter motion. From a new point of view, in this work, the dynamic equations regarding a disturbing body in elliptic inclined three-dimensional orbit are derived. The accuracy of this non-simplified method is validated with dual-averaged method employed on a generalized Earth-Moon system. It is shown that the neglected short-time oscillations in dual-averaged technique can accumulate and propel to remarkable errors in the prolonged evolution. After validation, the effects of the planet’s axial-tilt on eccentricity, inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of the orbiter are investigated. Moreover, a generalized model is provided to study the effects of third-body inclination and eccentricity on orbit characteristics. It is shown that the planet’s axial-tilt is the key to facilitating some significant changes in orbital elements in long-term mission and short-time oscillations must be considered in accurate prolonged evaluation.

Long-term induced agricultural intensification in China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Teng, Shuqing; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2016-01-01

Understanding the dynamics of agricultural intensification has great implications for biodiversity conservation faced with increasing human population and food demand. How agricultural intensification evolves with human population growth is differently described by three theories, namely......, the Boserupian, Malthusian and induced intensification theories. The Malthusian theory suggests quick adoption of available techniques that increase human population, while the other two share one viewpoint that increased intensive level of agriculture is passively induced by population growth. Which theory has...... a prediction that matches long-term dynamics of agricultural intensification in history? Using historical land-use data spanning two thousand years, this study estimated the dynamic trajectories of four cultivation practices with different intensive levels in a part of China and assessed the three theories...

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Farfán, Miguel Ángel; Olivero, Jesús; Márquez, Ana Luz; Vargas, Juan Mario

2009-06-01

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s

Long term picoplankton dynamics in a warm-monomictic, tropical high altitude lake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfonso LUGO VÁZQUEZ

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Long term analyses of the microbial loop, centred on the picoplankton dynamics, were carried out over a five-year (1998 to 2002 period in Lake Alchichica (Puebla, Mexico, a high altitude tropical athalassohaline lake. The hydrodynamics of the lake followed a warm-monomictic pattern with mixing at a minimum temperature during the early dry season while the stratification was pronounced in the late dry season and throughout the rainy season; anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion lasted <9 months. The annual mean concentrations of chlorophyll-a were below 4 μg L-1 in 1998, 1999 and 2001, however, 6.1 and 5.2 μg L-1 in 2000 and 2002, respectively. Total picoplankton, TPP, displayed a temporal pattern that followed the mixing-stratification cycle. The highest TPP values (the whole water column ≥5×106 cells mL-1 were found during mixing and early stratification (January-March. The minimum numbers were present during late stratification (October-November. The maximum TPP numbers were observed within the layer 0-20 m, which corresponded to the epilimnion during the stratification period. Neither the thermocline nor the deep chlorophyll maximum showed an elevated TPP concentration. In the hypolimnion, TPP numbers were low (frequently <1×106 cells mL-1 apparently as a result of the long period of anoxia. Notwithstanding autotrophic picoplankton (APP contributed even ≥30% of TPP (2001 to 2002; no significant correlation was found between TPP and chlorophyll-a.

Exploring the free energy landscape: from dynamics to networks and back.

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Diego Prada-Gracia

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of the Free Energy Landscape topology is the essential key to understanding many biochemical processes. The determination of the conformers of a protein and their basins of attraction takes a central role for studying molecular isomerization reactions. In this work, we present a novel framework to unveil the features of a Free Energy Landscape answering questions such as how many meta-stable conformers there are, what the hierarchical relationship among them is, or what the structure and kinetics of the transition paths are. Exploring the landscape by molecular dynamics simulations, the microscopic data of the trajectory are encoded into a Conformational Markov Network. The structure of this graph reveals the regions of the conformational space corresponding to the basins of attraction. In addition, handling the Conformational Markov Network, relevant kinetic magnitudes as dwell times and rate constants, or hierarchical relationships among basins, completes the global picture of the landscape. We show the power of the analysis studying a toy model of a funnel-like potential and computing efficiently the conformers of a short peptide, dialanine, paving the way to a systematic study of the Free Energy Landscape in large peptides.

Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales

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Singh, S. J.; Haberl, H.

2012-04-01

Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales Simron Jit Singh and Helmut Haberl Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Austria Understanding trajectories of change in coupled socio-ecological (or human-environment) systems requires monitoring and analysis at several spatial and temporal scales. Long-term ecosystem research (LTER) is a strand of research coupled with observation systems and infrastructures (LTER sites) aimed at understanding how global change affects ecosystems around the world. In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that sustainability concerns require extending this approach to long-term socio-ecological research, i.e. a more integrated perspective that focuses on interaction processes between society and ecosystems over longer time periods. Thus, Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research, abbreviated LTSER, aims at observing, analyzing, understanding and modelling of changes in coupled socio-ecological systems over long periods of time. Indeed, the magnitude of the problems we now face is an outcome of a much longer process, accelerated by industrialisation since the nineteenth century. The paper will provide an overview of a book (in press) on LTSER with particular emphasis on 'socio-ecological transitions' in terms of material, energy and land use dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.

Long-term disturbance dynamics and resilience of tropical peat swamp forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Lydia E S; Bhagwat, Shonil A; Willis, Katherine J

2015-01-01

1. The coastal peat swamp forests of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, are undergoing rapid conversion, predominantly into oil palm plantations. This wetland ecosystem is assumed to have experienced insignificant disturbance in the past, persisting under a single ecologically-stable regime. However, there is limited knowledge of the past disturbance regime, long-term functioning and fundamentally the resilience of this ecosystem to changing natural and anthropogenic perturbations through time. 2. In this study, long-term ecological data sets from three degraded peatlands in Sarawak were collected to shed light on peat swamp forest dynamics. Fossil pollen and charcoal were counted in each sedimentary sequence to reconstruct vegetation and investigate responses to past environmental disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic. 3. Results demonstrate that peat swamp forest taxa have dominated these vegetation profiles throughout the last c . 2000-year period despite the presence of various drivers of disturbance. Evidence for episodes of climatic variability, predominantly linked to ENSO events, and wildfires is present throughout. However, in the last c . 500 years, burning and indicators of human disturbance have elevated beyond past levels at these sites, concurrent with a reduction in peat swamp forest pollen. 4. Two key insights have been gained through this palaeoecological analysis: (i) peat swamp forest vegetation has demonstrated resilience to disturbance caused by burning and climatic variability in Sarawak in the late Holocene, however (ii) coincident with increased fire combined with human impact c . 500 years ago, these communities started to decline. 5. Synthesis . Sarawak's coastal peat swamps have demonstrated resilience to past natural disturbances, with forest vegetation persisting through episodes of fire and climatic variability. However, palaeoecological data presented here suggest that recent, anthropogenic disturbances are of a greater magnitude

Local Fitness Landscapes Predict Yeast Evolutionary Dynamics in Directionally Changing Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorter, Florien A; Aarts, Mark G M; Zwaan, Bas J; de Visser, J Arjan G M

2018-01-01

The fitness landscape is a concept that is widely used for understanding and predicting evolutionary adaptation. The topography of the fitness landscape depends critically on the environment, with potentially far-reaching consequences for evolution under changing conditions. However, few studies have assessed directly how empirical fitness landscapes change across conditions, or validated the predicted consequences of such change. We previously evolved replicate yeast populations in the presence of either gradually increasing, or constant high, concentrations of the heavy metals cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), and analyzed their phenotypic and genomic changes. Here, we reconstructed the local fitness landscapes underlying adaptation to each metal by deleting all repeatedly mutated genes both by themselves and in combination. Fitness assays revealed that the height, and/or shape, of each local fitness landscape changed considerably across metal concentrations, with distinct qualitative differences between unconditionally (Cd) and conditionally toxic metals (Ni and Zn). This change in topography had particularly crucial consequences in the case of Ni, where a substantial part of the individual mutational fitness effects changed in sign across concentrations. Based on the Ni landscape analyses, we made several predictions about which mutations had been selected when during the evolution experiment. Deep sequencing of population samples from different time points generally confirmed these predictions, demonstrating the power of landscape reconstruction analyses for understanding and ultimately predicting evolutionary dynamics, even under complex scenarios of environmental change. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates

OpenAIRE

Noriaki Kinoshita

2006-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of governme...

Innovative culture in long-term care settings: the influence of organizational characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Nieboer, Anna P; Strating, Mathilde M H

2012-01-01

Innovative cultures have been reported to enhance the creation and implementation of new ideas and working methods in organizations. Although there is considerable research on the impact of organizational context on the innovativeness of organizations, the same is not the case for research on the organizational characteristics responsible for an innovative culture in (long-term) care settings. The aim of this study was to identify organizational characteristics that explain innovative culture in the (long-term) care sector. A large cross-sectional study in Dutch long-term care-nursing homes and/or elderly homes, care organizations for the handicapped, and long-term mental health care organizations-was conducted. A total of 432 managers and care professionals in 37 organizations participated. The Group Innovation Inventory was used to measure innovative culture in long-term care organizations. Structural characteristics of the organization were centralization and formalization, environmental dynamism and competitiveness, internal and external exchange of information, leadership style, commitment to quality improvement, and the organization's innovative strategy. The determinants of an innovative culture were estimated with a two-level random-intercepts and fixed-slopes model. Multilevel regression models were used to account for the organizational clustering of individuals within the 37 care organizations. Environmental dynamism, job codification, formal external exchange of information, transformational leadership, commitment to quality, and an exploratory and exploitative innovation strategy were all significantly correlated with an innovative culture in the multivariate multilevel analysis; the other characteristics were not. The explained organizational- and individual-level variance was 52.5% and 49.2%, respectively. The results point to substantial differences in innovative cultures between and within care organizations that can, in part, be explained by

A Multi-Scalar Approach to Theorizing Socio-Ecological Dynamics of Urban Residential Landscapes

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Rinku Roy Chowdhury

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Urban residential expansion increasingly drives land use, land cover and ecological changes worldwide, yet social science theories explaining such change remain under-developed. Existing theories often focus on processes occurring at one scale, while ignoring other scales. Emerging evidence from four linked U.S. research sites suggests it is essential to examine processes at multiple scales simultaneously when explaining the evolution of urban residential landscapes. Additionally, focusing on urbanization dynamics across multiple sites with a shared research design may yield fruitful comparative insights. The following processes and social-hierarchical scales significantly influence the spatial configurations of residential landscapes: household-level characteristics and environmental attitudes; formal and informal institutions at the neighborhood scale; and municipal-scale land-use governance. While adopting a multi-scale and multi-site approach produces research challenges, doing so is critical to advancing understanding of coupled socio-ecological systems and associated vulnerabilities in a dynamic and environmentally important setting: residential landscapes.

A wearable wireless ECG monitoring system with dynamic transmission power control for long-term homecare.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yishan; Doleschel, Sammy; Wunderlich, Ralf; Heinen, Stefan

2015-03-01

This paper presents a wearable wireless ECG monitoring system based on novel 3-Lead electrode placements for long-term homecare. The experiment for novel 3-Lead electrode placements is carried out, and the results show that the distance between limb electrodes can be significantly reduced. Based on the new electrode position, a small size sensor node, which is powered by a rechargeable battery, is designed to detect, amplify, filter and transmit the ECG signals. The coordinator receives the data and sends it to PC. Finally the signals are displayed on the GUI. In order to control the power consumption of sensor node, a dynamic power adjustment method is applied to automatically adjust the transmission power of the sensor node according to the received signal strength indicator (RSSI), which is related to the distance and obstacle between sensor node and coordinator. The system is evaluated when the user, who wears the sensor, is walking and running. A promising performance is achieved even under body motion. The power consumption can be significantly reduced with this dynamic power adjustment method.

Assessment of dynamic and long-term performance of an innovative multi-story timber building via structural monitoring and dynamic testing

Science.gov (United States)

Omenzetter, Piotr; Morris, Hugh; Worth, Margaret; Gaul, Andrew; Jager, Simon; Desgeorges, Yohann

2012-04-01

An innovative three-story timber building, using self-centering, post-tensioned timber shear walls as the main horizontal load resisting system and lightweight non-composite timber-concrete floors, has recently been completed in Nelson, New Zealand. It is expected to be the trailblazer for similar but taller structures to be more widely adopted. Performance based standards require an advanced understanding of building responses and in order to meet the need for in-situ performance data the building has been subjected to forced vibration testing and instrumented for continuous monitoring using a total of approximately 90 data channels to capture its dynamic and long-term responses. The first part of the paper presents a brief discussion of the existing research on the seismic performance of timber frame buildings and footfall induced floor vibrations. An outline of the building structural system, focusing on the novel design solutions, is then discussed. This is followed by the description of the monitoring system. The analysis of monitoring results starts with a discussion of the monitoring of long-term deformations. Next, the assessment of the floor vibration serviceability performance is outlined. Then, the forced vibration tests conducted on the whole building at different construction stages are reviewed. The system identification results from seismic shaking records are also discussed. Finally, updating of a finite element model of the building is conducted.

Ecosystem function in complex mountain terrain: Combining models and long-term observations to advance process-based understanding

Science.gov (United States)

Wieder, William R.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.; Swenson, Sean C.; Suding, Katharine N.

2017-04-01

Abiotic factors structure plant community composition and ecosystem function across many different spatial scales. Often, such variation is considered at regional or global scales, but here we ask whether ecosystem-scale simulations can be used to better understand landscape-level variation that might be particularly important in complex terrain, such as high-elevation mountains. We performed ecosystem-scale simulations by using the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 to better understand how the increased length of growing seasons may impact carbon, water, and energy fluxes in an alpine tundra landscape. The model was forced with meteorological data and validated with observations from the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research Program site. Our results demonstrate that CLM is capable of reproducing the observed carbon, water, and energy fluxes for discrete vegetation patches across this heterogeneous ecosystem. We subsequently accelerated snowmelt and increased spring and summer air temperatures in order to simulate potential effects of climate change in this region. We found that vegetation communities that were characterized by different snow accumulation dynamics showed divergent biogeochemical responses to a longer growing season. Contrary to expectations, wet meadow ecosystems showed the strongest decreases in plant productivity under extended summer scenarios because of disruptions in hydrologic connectivity. These findings illustrate how Earth system models such as CLM can be used to generate testable hypotheses about the shifting nature of energy, water, and nutrient limitations across space and through time in heterogeneous landscapes; these hypotheses may ultimately guide further experimental work and model development.

Bifurcation analysis of a delay differential equation model associated with the induction of long-term memory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao, Lijie; Yang, Zhuoqin; Lei, Jinzhi

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A delay differentiation equation model for CREB regulation is developed. • Increasing the time delay can generate various bifurcations. • Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes. - Abstract: The ability to form long-term memories is an important function for the nervous system, and the formation process is dynamically regulated through various transcription factors, including CREB proteins. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a delay differential equation model for CREB protein activities, which involves two positive and two negative feedbacks in the regulatory network. We discuss the dynamical mechanisms underlying the induction of long-term memory, in which bistability is essential for the formation of long-term memory, while long time delay can destabilize the high level steady state to inhibit the long-term memory formation. The model displays rich dynamical response to stimuli, including monostability, bistability, and oscillations, and can transit between different states by varying the negative feedback strength. Introduction of a time delay to the model can generate various bifurcations such as Hopf bifurcation, fold limit cycle bifurcation, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation of cycles, and period-doubling bifurcation, etc. Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes: quasi-periodic route and period-doubling cascade.

Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy V.P. Bliss

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

A General Model for Estimating Macroevolutionary Landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucher, Florian C; Démery, Vincent; Conti, Elena; Harmon, Luke J; Uyeda, Josef

2018-03-01

The evolution of quantitative characters over long timescales is often studied using stochastic diffusion models. The current toolbox available to students of macroevolution is however limited to two main models: Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, plus some of their extensions. Here, we present a very general model for inferring the dynamics of quantitative characters evolving under both random diffusion and deterministic forces of any possible shape and strength, which can accommodate interesting evolutionary scenarios like directional trends, disruptive selection, or macroevolutionary landscapes with multiple peaks. This model is based on a general partial differential equation widely used in statistical mechanics: the Fokker-Planck equation, also known in population genetics as the Kolmogorov forward equation. We thus call the model FPK, for Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov. We first explain how this model can be used to describe macroevolutionary landscapes over which quantitative traits evolve and, more importantly, we detail how it can be fitted to empirical data. Using simulations, we show that the model has good behavior both in terms of discrimination from alternative models and in terms of parameter inference. We provide R code to fit the model to empirical data using either maximum-likelihood or Bayesian estimation, and illustrate the use of this code with two empirical examples of body mass evolution in mammals. FPK should greatly expand the set of macroevolutionary scenarios that can be studied since it opens the way to estimating macroevolutionary landscapes of any conceivable shape. [Adaptation; bounds; diffusion; FPK model; macroevolution; maximum-likelihood estimation; MCMC methods; phylogenetic comparative data; selection.].

Long-Distance Rescue and Slow Extinction Dynamics Govern Multiscale Metapopulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Huth, Géraldine; Haegeman, Bart; Pitard, Estelle; Munoz, François

2015-10-01

Rare long-distance dispersal is known to be critical for species dynamics, but how the interplay between short- and long-distance colonization influences regional persistence in a fragmented habitat remains poorly understood. We propose a metapopulation model that combines local colonization within habitat islands and long-distance colonization between islands. We study how regional occupancy dynamics are affected by the multiscale colonization process. We find that the island size distribution (ISD) is a key driver of the long-term occupancy dynamics. When the ISD is heterogeneous-that is, when the size of islands is variable-we show that extinction dynamics become very slow. We demonstrate that this behavior is unrelated to the well-known extinction debt near the critical extinction threshold. Hence, this finding questions the equivalence between extinction debt and critical transitions in the context of metapopulation collapse. Furthermore, we show that long-distance colonization can rescue small islands from extinction and sustain a steady regional occupancy. These results provide novel theoretical and practical insights into extinction dynamics and persistence in fragmented habitats and are thus relevant for the design of conservation strategies.

The nekhoroshev theorem and long-term stabilities in the solar system

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Guzzo M.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Nekhoroshev theorem has been often indicated in the last decades as the reference theorem for explaining the dynamics of several systems which are stable in the long-term. The Solar System dynamics provides a wide range of possible and useful applications. In fact, despite the complicated models which are used to numerically integrate realistic Solar System dynamics as accurately as possible, when the integrated solutions are chaotic the reliability of the numerical integrations is limited, and a theoretical long-term stability analysis is required. After the first formulation of Nekhoroshev’s theorem in 1977, many theoretical improvements have been achieved. On the one hand, alternative proofs of the theorem itself led to consistent improvements of the stability estimates; on the other hand, the extensions which were necessary to apply the theorem to the systems of interest for Solar System Dynamics, in particular concerning the removal of degeneracies and the implementation of computer assisted proofs, have been developed. In this review paper we discuss some of the motivations and the results which have made Nekhoroshev’s theorem a reference stability result for many applications in the Solar System dynamics.

A framework for evaluating forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Qia. Wang

2014-01-01

Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is...

Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope-river interactions : incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three-dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Lu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1 the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2 although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3 spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

Long-Term Symbolic Learning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

2007-01-01

What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

Effective Management of Trans boundary Landscapes - Geospatial Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Kotru, R.; Rawal, R. S.; Mathur, P. K.; Chettri, N.; Chaudhari, S. A.; Uddin, K.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Singh, S.

2014-11-01

The Convention on Biological Diversity advocates the use of landscape and ecosystem approaches for managing biodiversity, in recognition of the need for increased regional cooperation. In this context, ICIMOD and regional partners have evolved Transboundary Landscape concept to address the issues of conservation and sustainable use of natural resources and systems (e.g., biodiversity, rangelands, farming systems, forests, wetlands, and watersheds, etc.). This concept defines the landscapes by ecosystems rather than political/administrative boundaries. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is extremely heterogeneous, with complex inter linkages of biomes and habitats as well as strong upstream-downstream linkages related to the provisioning of ecosystem services. Seven such transboundary landscapes, identified across west to east extent of HKH, have been considered for programmatic cooperation, include: Wakhan, Karakoram-Pamir, Kailash, Everest, Kangchenjunga, Brahmaputra-Salween, and Cherrapunjee- Chittagong. The approach is people centered and considers the cultural conservation as an essential first step towards resource conservation efforts in the region. Considering the multi-scale requirements of study, the geospatial technology has been effectively adopted towards: (i) understanding temporal changes in landscapes, (ii) long term ecological and social monitoring, (ii) identifying potential bio corridors, (iii) assessing landscape level vulnerability due to climatic and non-climatic drivers, and (iv) developing local plans on extractions of high value economic species supporting livelihoods, agroforestry system and ecotourism, etc. We present here our recent experiences across different landscapes on assessment of three decadal changes, vegetation type mapping, assessment of socio-ecological drivers, corridor assessment, ecosystem services assessment, models for optimal natural resource use systems and long term socio-ecological monitoring.

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

Rebuilding after collapse: evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest

Science.gov (United States)

Boehmer, Hans Juergen; Wagner, Helene H.; Jacobi, James D.; Gerrish, Grant C.; Mueller-Dombois, Dieter

2013-01-01

Questions: Do long-term observations in permanent plots confirm the conceptual model of Metrosideros polymorpha cohort dynamics as postulated in 1987? Do regeneration patterns occur independently of substrate age, i.e. of direct volcanic disturbance impact? Location: The windward mountain slopes of the younger Mauna Loa and the older Mauna Kea volcanoes (island of Hawaii, USA). Methods: After widespread forest decline (dieback), permanent plots were established in 1976 in 13 dieback and 13 non-dieback patches to monitor the population structure of M. polymorpha at ca. 5-yr intervals. Within each plot of 20 × 20 m, all trees with DBH >2.5 cm were individually tagged, measured and tree vigour assessed; regeneration was quantified in 16 systematically placed subplots of 3 × 5 m. Data collected in the subplots included the total number of M. polymorpha seedlings and saplings (five stem height classes). Here we analyse monitoring data from six time steps from 1976 to 2003 using repeated measures ANOVA to test specific predictions derived from the 1987 conceptual model. Results: Regeneration was significantly different between dieback and non-dieback plots. In dieback plots, the collapse in the 1970s was followed by a ‘sapling wave’ that by 2003 led to new cohort stands of M. polymorpha. In non-dieback stands, seedling emergence did not result in sapling waves over the same period. Instead, a ‘sapling gap’ (i.e. very few or no M. polymorpha saplings) prevailed as typical for mature stands. Canopy dieback in 1976, degree of recovery by 2003 and the number of living trees in 2003 were unrelated to substrate age. Conclusions: Population development of M. polymorpha supports the cohort dynamics model, which predicts rebuilding of the forest with the same canopy species after dieback. The lack of association with substrate age suggests that the long-term maintenance of cohort structure in M. polymorpha does not depend on volcanic disturbance but may be related to

An Examination of Long-Term Environmental-Social Dynamics in the Balkans

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, C.; Boger, R. A.

2015-12-01

This study examines the interactions of environmental and social dynamics in Central Balkans over the past millennium, a period that experienced three major climatic phases (Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the warm 20th century). Meanwhile, the same period witnessed a complex human history with the emergence-rise-decline of the Ottoman Empire and subsequent socio-political events (e.g. wars, famines, migrations). Environmental datasets for the analysis include biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical signals through X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS 14C dating of two western and central Serbian lakes while social datasets include historic population data, land use, settlement patterns, and critical historic events derived from a review of the literature and local archives. Among the environmental datasets, indigenous tree and herbaceous pollen from these Central Balkans records demonstrate fluctuations in woodland-grassland dynamics whereas potassium and titanium counts obtained through XRF act as a proxy for surface erosion and clastic input into the lakes. Microscopic charcoal, cereal pollen and subordinate anthropogenic pollen (e.g. cultivated fruits and vegetables) are used to distinguish strong human impact over the landscape. These key anthropogenic indicators create a more thorough social component of the analysis in association with the social datasets. After reconstructing the individual time series for each environmental and social dataset, the two Central Balkan records are correlated in order to identify the environmental and social homogeneity and heterogeneity patterns occurring at shorter and longer timescales during the period. Results provide insights on how a region responds to social and environmental stressors and our approach demonstrates ways to integrate natural and social science system research.

Short-Term and Long-Term Educational Mobility of Families: A Two-Sex Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Xi; Mare, Robert D

2017-02-01

We use a multigenerational perspective to investigate how families reproduce and pass their educational advantages to succeeding generations. Unlike traditional mobility studies that have typically focused on one-sex influences from fathers to sons, we rely on a two-sex approach that accounts for interactions between males and females-the process in which males and females mate and have children with those of similar educational statuses and jointly determine the educational status attainment of their offspring. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we approach this issue from both a short-term and a long-term perspective. For the short term, grandparents' educational attainments have a direct association with grandchildren's education as well as an indirect association that is mediated by parents' education and demographic behaviors. For the long term, initial educational advantages of families may benefit as many as three subsequent generations, but such advantages are later offset by the lower fertility of highly educated persons. Yet, all families eventually achieve the same educational distribution of descendants because of intermarriages between families of high- and low-education origin.

Understory Bird Communities in Amazonian Rainforest Fragments: Species Turnover through 25 Years Post-Isolation in Recovering Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Stouffer, Philip C.; Johnson, Erik I.; Bierregaard, Richard O.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.

2011-01-01

Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1–100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1–2 preisolation samples and 4–5 post-isolation samples). Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction. PMID:21731616

Understory bird communities in Amazonian rainforest fragments: species turnover through 25 years post-isolation in recovering landscapes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip C Stouffer

Full Text Available Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1-100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1-2 preisolation samples and 4-5 post-isolation samples. Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction.

Simulation of Long-Term Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in Grassland-Based Dairy Farming Systems to Evaluate Mitigation Strategies for Nutrient Losses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghulam Abbas Shah

Full Text Available Many measures have been proposed to mitigate gaseous emissions and other nutrient losses from agroecosystems, which can have large detrimental effects for the quality of soils, water and air, and contribute to eutrophication and global warming. Due to complexities in farm management, biological interactions and emission measurements, most experiments focus on analysis of short-term effects of isolated mitigation practices. Here we present a model that allows simulating long-term effects at the whole-farm level of combined measures related to grassland management, animal housing and manure handling after excretion, during storage and after field application. The model describes the dynamics of pools of organic carbon and nitrogen (N, and of inorganic N, as affected by farm management in grassland-based dairy systems. We assessed the long-term effects of delayed grass mowing, housing type (cubicle and sloping floor barns, resulting in production of slurry and solid cattle manure, respectively, manure additives, contrasting manure storage methods and irrigation after application of covered manure. Simulations demonstrated that individually applied practices often result in compensatory loss pathways. For instance, methods to reduce ammonia emissions during storage like roofing or covering of manure led to larger losses through ammonia volatilization, nitrate leaching or denitrification after application, unless extra measures like irrigation were used. A strategy of combined management practices of delayed mowing and fertilization with solid cattle manure that is treated with zeolite, stored under an impermeable sheet and irrigated after application was effective to increase soil carbon stocks, increase feed self-sufficiency and reduce losses by ammonia volatilization and soil N losses. Although long-term datasets (>25 years of farm nutrient dynamics and loss flows are not available to validate the model, the model is firmly based on knowledge of

Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2013-01-01

Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

Long-term influence of asteroids on planet longitudes and chaotic dynamics of the solar system

Science.gov (United States)

Woillez, E.; Bouchet, F.

2017-11-01

Over timescales much longer than an orbital period, the solar system exhibits large-scale chaotic behavior and can thus be viewed as a stochastic dynamical system. The aim of the present paper is to compare different sources of stochasticity in the solar system. More precisely we studied the importance of the long term influence of asteroids on the chaotic dynamics of the solar system. We show that the effects of asteroids on planets is similar to a white noise process, when those effects are considered on a timescale much larger than the correlation time τϕ ≃ 104 yr of asteroid trajectories. We computed the timescale τe after which the effects of the stochastic evolution of the asteroids lead to a loss of information for the initial conditions of the perturbed Laplace-Lagrange secular dynamics. The order of magnitude of this timescale is precisely determined by theoretical argument, and we find that τe ≃ 104 Myr. Although comparable to the full main-sequence lifetime of the sun, this timescale is considerably longer than the Lyapunov time τI ≃ 10 Myr of the solar system without asteroids. This shows that the external sources of chaos arise as a small perturbation in the stochastic secular behavior of the solar system, rather due to intrinsic chaos.

Simulation Based Exploration of Critical Zone Dynamics in Intensively Managed Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, P.

2017-12-01

The advent of high-resolution measurements of topographic and (vertical) vegetation features using areal LiDAR are enabling us to resolve micro-scale ( 1m) landscape structural characteristics over large areas. Availability of hyperspectral measurements is further augmenting these LiDAR data by enabling the biogeochemical characterization of vegetation and soils at unprecedented spatial resolutions ( 1-10m). Such data have opened up novel opportunities for modeling Critical Zone processes and exploring questions that were not possible before. We show how an integrated 3-D model at 1m grid resolution can enable us to resolve micro-topographic and ecological dynamics and their control on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes over large areas. We address the computational challenge of such detailed modeling by exploiting hybrid CPU and GPU computing technologies. We show results of moisture, biogeochemical, and vegetation dynamics from studies in the Critical Zone Observatory for Intensively managed Landscapes (IMLCZO) in the Midwestern United States.

A landscape genetic analysis of important agricultural pest species in Tunisia: The whitefly Bemisia tabaci.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Ben Abdelkrim

Full Text Available Combining landscape ecology and genetics provides an excellent framework to appreciate pest population dynamics and dispersal. The genetic architectures of many species are always shaped by environmental constraints. Because little is known about the ecological and genetic traits of Tunisian whitefly populations, the main objective of this work is to highlight patterns of biodiversity, genetic structure and migration routes of this pest. We used nuclear microsatellite loci to analyze B. tabaci populations collected from various agricultural areas across the country and we determine their biotype status. Molecular data were subsequently interpreted in an ecological context supplied from a species distribution model to infer habitat suitability and hereafter the potential connection paths between sampling localities. An analysis of landscape resistance to B. tabaci genetic flow was thus applied to take into account habitat suitability, genetic relatedness and functional connectivity of habitats within a varied landscape matrix. We shed light on the occurrence of three geographically delineated genetic groups with high levels of genetic differentiation within each of them. Potential migration corridors of this pest were then established providing significant advances toward the understanding of genetic features and the dynamic dispersal of this pest. This study supports the hypothesis of a long-distance dispersal of B. tabaci followed by infrequent long-term isolations. The Inference of population sources and colonization routes is critical for the design and implementation of accurate management strategies against this pest.

A landscape genetic analysis of important agricultural pest species in Tunisia: The whitefly Bemisia tabaci.

Science.gov (United States)

Ben Abdelkrim, Ahmed; Hattab, Tarek; Fakhfakh, Hatem; Belkadhi, Mohamed Sadok; Gorsane, Faten

2017-01-01

Combining landscape ecology and genetics provides an excellent framework to appreciate pest population dynamics and dispersal. The genetic architectures of many species are always shaped by environmental constraints. Because little is known about the ecological and genetic traits of Tunisian whitefly populations, the main objective of this work is to highlight patterns of biodiversity, genetic structure and migration routes of this pest. We used nuclear microsatellite loci to analyze B. tabaci populations collected from various agricultural areas across the country and we determine their biotype status. Molecular data were subsequently interpreted in an ecological context supplied from a species distribution model to infer habitat suitability and hereafter the potential connection paths between sampling localities. An analysis of landscape resistance to B. tabaci genetic flow was thus applied to take into account habitat suitability, genetic relatedness and functional connectivity of habitats within a varied landscape matrix. We shed light on the occurrence of three geographically delineated genetic groups with high levels of genetic differentiation within each of them. Potential migration corridors of this pest were then established providing significant advances toward the understanding of genetic features and the dynamic dispersal of this pest. This study supports the hypothesis of a long-distance dispersal of B. tabaci followed by infrequent long-term isolations. The Inference of population sources and colonization routes is critical for the design and implementation of accurate management strategies against this pest.

Dynamics of the psychological features and clinical symptoms in mitral valve prolapse patients receiving long-term integrative psychotherapy for anxiety disorders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zinchenko Y.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to investigate the dynamics of the psychological features and clinical symptoms in mitral valve prolapse (MVP patients receiving long-term integrative psychotherapy for anxiety disorders (AD and to investigate the psychological factors of their improvement in mental health as a result of psychotherapy. Thirty-two MVP patients with AD attended long-term integrative psychotherapy. Psychological and clinical examinations of the patients were made before and after the therapy courses and in a follow-up study after 2, 5, and 10 years. Data from the study show that 78.1% of the patients who attended psychotherapy sessions demonstrated valid improvements in self-rated psychological well-being and a reduction in their anxiety levels. Analysis of emotion-regulation strategies showed that psychotherapy encouraged the use of strategies effective for solving adaptive tasks. Positive dynamics in the development of personality reflection, the recognition of one’s emotional experiences, improved skills of self-regulation, and growing awareness of actual needs, individual purposes, and personality resources—all were associated with the reduction of MVP clinical symptoms. The psychiatrist who interviewed the patients reported that most of them were in sustained remission.

Long-term availability of global uranium resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monnet, Antoine

2016-01-01

From a global perspective, a low-carbon path to development driven by a growth of nuclear power production raises issues about the availability of uranium resources. Future technologies allowing nuclear reactors to overcome the need for natural uranium will take time to fully deploy. To address these issues, we analyze the conditions of availability of uranium in the 21. century. The first two conditions are technical accessibility and economic interest, both related to the cost of production. We study them using a model that estimates the ultimate uranium resources (amounts of both discovered and undiscovered resources) and their costs. This model splits the world into regions and the resource estimate for each region derives from the present knowledge of the deposits and economic filtering. The output is a long-term supply curve that illustrates the quantities of uranium that are technically accessible as a function of their cost of production. We identify the main uncertainties of these estimates and we show that with no regional breakdown, the ultimate resources are underestimated. The other conditions of availability of uranium covered in our study are related to the market dynamics, i.e. they derive from the supply and demand clearing mechanism. To assess their influence, they are introduced as dynamic constraints in a partial equilibrium model. This model of the uranium market is deterministic, and market players are represented by regions. For instance, it takes into account the short-term correlation between price and exploration expenditures, which is the subject of a dedicate econometric study. In the longer term, constraints include anticipation of demand by consumers and a gradual depletion of the cheapest ultimate resources. Through a series of prospective simulations, we demonstrate the strong influence on long-term price trends of both the growth rate of demand during the 21. century and its anticipation. Conversely, the uncertainties related to the

Optimization of landscape services under uncoordinated management by multiple landowners.

Science.gov (United States)

Porto, Miguel; Correia, Otília; Beja, Pedro

2014-01-01

Landscapes are often patchworks of private properties, where composition and configuration patterns result from cumulative effects of the actions of multiple landowners. Securing the delivery of services in such multi-ownership landscapes is challenging, because it is difficult to assure tight compliance to spatially explicit management rules at the level of individual properties, which may hinder the conservation of critical landscape features. To deal with these constraints, a multi-objective simulation-optimization procedure was developed to select non-spatial management regimes that best meet landscape-level objectives, while accounting for uncoordinated and uncertain response of individual landowners to management rules. Optimization approximates the non-dominated Pareto frontier, combining a multi-objective genetic algorithm and a simulator that forecasts trends in landscape pattern as a function of management rules implemented annually by individual landowners. The procedure was demonstrated with a case study for the optimum scheduling of fuel treatments in cork oak forest landscapes, involving six objectives related to reducing management costs (1), reducing fire risk (3), and protecting biodiversity associated with mid- and late-successional understories (2). There was a trade-off between cost, fire risk and biodiversity objectives, that could be minimized by selecting management regimes involving ca. 60% of landowners clearing the understory at short intervals (around 5 years), and the remaining managing at long intervals (ca. 75 years) or not managing. The optimal management regimes produces a mosaic landscape dominated by stands with herbaceous and low shrub understories, but also with a satisfactory representation of old understories, that was favorable in terms of both fire risk and biodiversity. The simulation-optimization procedure presented can be extended to incorporate a wide range of landscape dynamic processes, management rules and quantifiable

Long-term dynamics of dissolved organic carbon: implications for drinking water supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Ledesma, José L J; Köhler, Stephan J; Futter, Martyn N

2012-08-15

Surface waters are the main source of drinking water in many regions. Increasing organic carbon concentrations are a cause for concern in Nordic countries since both dissolved and particulate organic carbon can transport contaminants and adversely affect drinking water treatment processes. We present a long-term study of dynamics of total (particulate and dissolved) organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in the River Fyris. This river supplies drinking water to approximately 200000 people in Uppsala, Sweden. The River Fyris is a main tributary to Lake Mälaren, which supplies drinking water to approximately 2 million people in the greater Stockholm area. Utilities responsible for drinking water supply in both Uppsala and Stockholm have expressed concerns about possible increases in TOC. We evaluate organic carbon dynamics within the Fyris catchment by calculating areal mass exports using observed TOC concentrations and modeled flows and by modeling dissolved organic carbon (as a proxy for TOC) using the dynamic, process based INCA-C model. Exports of TOC from the catchment ranged from 0.8 to 5.8 g m(-2) year(-1) in the period 1995-2010. The variation in annual exports was related to climatic variability which influenced seasonality and amount of runoff. Exports and discharge uncoupled at the end of 2008. A dramatic increase in TOC concentrations was observed in 2009, which gradually declined in 2010-2011. INCA-C successfully reproduced the intra- and inter-annual variation in concentrations during 1996-2008 and 2010-2011 but failed to capture the anomalous increase in 2009. We evaluated a number of hypotheses to explain the anomaly in 2009 TOC values, ultimately none proved satisfactory. We draw two main conclusions: there is at least one unknown or unmeasured process controlling or influencing surface water TOC and INCA-C can be used as part of the decision-making process for current and future use of rivers for drinking water supply. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B

Long-Term Bacterial Dynamics in a Full-Scale Drinking Water Distribution System

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Prest, E.I.E.D.; Weissbrodt, D.G.; Hammes, F; van Loosdrecht, Mark C.M.; Vrouwenvelder, J.S.

2016-01-01

Large seasonal variations in microbial drinking water quality can occur in distribution networks, but are often not taken into account when evaluating results from short-term water sampling campaigns. Temporal dynamics in bacterial community characteristics were investigated during a two-year

On The Ubiquity of Nonstationary Fluvial Suspended Sediment Dynamics: A Call for Long Term Monitoring and Dynamical Sediment Management Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, A. B.

2017-12-01

Watersheds with sufficient monitoring data have been predominantly found to display nonstationary suspended sediment dynamics, whereby the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and discharge changes over time. Despite the importance of suspended sediment as a keystone of geophysical and biochemical processes, and as a primary mediator of water quality, stationary behavior remains largely assumed in the context of these applications. This study presents an investigation into the time dependent behavior of small mountainous rivers draining the coastal ranges of the western continental US over interannual to interdecadal time scales. Of the 250+ small coastal (drainage area systems. Temporal patterns of non-stationary behavior provided some evidence for spatial coherence, which may be related to synoptic hydro-metrological patterns and regional scale changes in land use patterns. However, the results also highlight the complex, integrative nature of watershed scale fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. This underscores the need for in-depth, forensic approaches for initial processes identification, which require long term, high resolution monitoring efforts in order to adequately inform management. The societal implications of nonstationary sediment dynamics and their controls were further explored through the case of California, USA, where over 150 impairment listings have resulted in more than 50 sediment TMDLs, only 3 of which are flux based - none of which account for non-stationary behavior.

The Ancient Maya Landscape: Facing the Challenges and Embracing the Promise of Integrating Archaeology, Remote Sensing, Soil Science and Hydrologic Modeling for Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Murtha, T., Jr.; Duffy, C.; Cook, B. D.; Schroder, W.; Webster, D.; French, K. D.; Alcover, O.; Golden, C.; Balzotti, C.; Shaffer, D.

2016-12-01

Relying on a niche inheritance perspective, this paper discusses the long-term spatial and temporal dynamics of land-use management, agricultural decision making and patterns of resource availability in the tropical lowlands of Central America. We introduce and describe ongoing research that addresses a series of long standing questions about coupled natural and human history dynamics in the Central Maya lowlands, emphasizing the role of landscape and region to address these questions. First, we summarize the results of a CNH pilot study focused on the evolution of the regional landscape of Tikal, Guatemala. Particular attention is centered on how we integrated landscape survey, traditional archaeology and soil studies to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural land use and intensification over a two thousand period. Additionally, we discuss how these results were integrated into remote sensing, hydrological and erosion models to better understand how past changes in available water and productive land compare to what we know about settlement patterns in the Tikal Region over that same time period. We not only describe how the Maya transformed this landscape, but also how the region influenced changing patterns of settlement and land use. We finish this section with a discussion of some of the unique challenges integrating archaeological information to study CNH dynamics during this pilot study. Second, we introduce a new project designed to `scale up' the pilot study for a macro-regional analysis of the lowland Maya landscape. The new project leverages a uniquely sampled LIDAR data set designed to refine measurements of above ground carbon storage. Our new project quantitatively examines these data for evidence for past human activity. Preliminary results offer a promising path for tightly integrating archaeology, natural science, remote sensing and modeling for studying CNH dynamics in the deep and recent past.

Energy landscape scheme for an intuitive understanding of complex domain dynamics in ferroelectric thin films

Science.gov (United States)

Heon Kim, Tae; Yoon, Jong-Gul; Hyub Baek, Seung; Park, Woong-Kyu; Mo Yang, Sang; Yup Jang, Seung; Min, Taeyuun; Chung, Jin-Seok; Eom, Chang-Beom; Won Noh, Tae

2015-07-01

Fundamental understanding of domain dynamics in ferroic materials has been a longstanding issue because of its relevance to many systems and to the design of nanoscale domain-wall devices. Despite many theoretical and experimental studies, a full understanding of domain dynamics still remains incomplete, partly due to complex interactions between domain-walls and disorder. We report domain-shape-preserving deterministic domain-wall motion, which directly confirms microscopic return point memory, by observing domain-wall breathing motion in ferroelectric BiFeO3 thin film using stroboscopic piezoresponse force microscopy. Spatial energy landscape that provides new insights into domain dynamics is also mapped based on the breathing motion of domain walls. The evolution of complex domain structure can be understood by the process of occupying the lowest available energy states of polarization in the energy landscape which is determined by defect-induced internal fields. Our result highlights a pathway for the novel design of ferroelectric domain-wall devices through the engineering of energy landscape using defect-induced internal fields such as flexoelectric fields.

Energy landscape scheme for an intuitive understanding of complex domain dynamics in ferroelectric thin films.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tae Heon; Yoon, Jong-Gul; Baek, Seung Hyub; Park, Woong-kyu; Yang, Sang Mo; Yup Jang, Seung; Min, Taeyuun; Chung, Jin-Seok; Eom, Chang-Beom; Noh, Tae Won

2015-07-01

Fundamental understanding of domain dynamics in ferroic materials has been a longstanding issue because of its relevance to many systems and to the design of nanoscale domain-wall devices. Despite many theoretical and experimental studies, a full understanding of domain dynamics still remains incomplete, partly due to complex interactions between domain-walls and disorder. We report domain-shape-preserving deterministic domain-wall motion, which directly confirms microscopic return point memory, by observing domain-wall breathing motion in ferroelectric BiFeO3 thin film using stroboscopic piezoresponse force microscopy. Spatial energy landscape that provides new insights into domain dynamics is also mapped based on the breathing motion of domain walls. The evolution of complex domain structure can be understood by the process of occupying the lowest available energy states of polarization in the energy landscape which is determined by defect-induced internal fields. Our result highlights a pathway for the novel design of ferroelectric domain-wall devices through the engineering of energy landscape using defect-induced internal fields such as flexoelectric fields.

Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osterrieder, Daniela

.S. government bonds, we model the time series of the state vector by means of a co-fractional vector autoregressive model. The implication is that yields of all maturities exhibit nonstationary, yet mean-reverting, long-memory behavior of the order d ≈ 0.87. The long-run dynamics of the state vector are driven......We propose a model for the term structure of interest rates that is a generalization of the discrete-time, Gaussian, affine yield-curve model. Compared to standard affine models, our model allows for general linear dynamics in the vector of state variables. In an application to real yields of U...... forecasts that outperform several benchmark models, especially at long forecasting horizons....

Measuring urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ossola, Alessandro; Hopton, Matthew E

2018-01-15

The spatial arrangement of urban vegetation depends on urban morphology and socio-economic settings. Urban vegetation changes over time because of human management. Urban trees are removed due to hazard prevention or aesthetic preferences. Previous research attributed tree loss to decreases in canopy cover. However, this provides little information about location and structural characteristics of trees lost, as well as environmental and social factors affecting tree loss dynamics. This is particularly relevant in residential landscapes where access to residential parcels for field surveys is limited. We tested whether multi-temporal airborne LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery collected at a 5-year interval can be used to investigate urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes in Denver, CO and Milwaukee, WI, covering 400,705 residential parcels in 444 census tracts. Position and stem height of trees lost were extracted from canopy height models calculated as the difference between final (year 5) and initial (year 0) vegetation height derived from LiDAR. Multivariate regression models were used to predict number and height of tree stems lost in residential parcels in each census tract based on urban morphological and socio-economic variables. A total of 28,427 stems were lost from residential parcels in Denver and Milwaukee over 5years. Overall, 7% of residential parcels lost one stem, averaging 90.87 stems per km 2 . Average stem height was 10.16m, though trees lost in Denver were taller compared to Milwaukee. The number of stems lost was higher in neighborhoods with higher canopy cover and developed before the 1970s. However, socio-economic characteristics had little effect on tree loss dynamics. The study provides a simple method for measuring urban tree loss dynamics within and across entire cities, and represents a further step toward high resolution assessments of the three-dimensional change of urban vegetation at large spatial scales. Published by

Long term estimates for sorting strategies of the LHC dipoles

CERN Document Server

Scandale, Walter; Giovannozzi, Massimo; Todesco, Ezio

1998-01-01

Sorting strategies are investigated in view of improving the dynamic aperture of the CERN-LHC. Local and quasi-local compensation of the random field shape imperfections are discussed and applied to simplified model of the LHC lattice. The most promising strategies are further investigated on a realistic LHC model with particular emphasis on the analysis of the robustness of the dynamic aperture improvements including long term effects. First results on the application of the recently developed extrapolation law for the prediction of the dynamic aperture to the sorting problem are presented.

Imaging windows for long-term intravital imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Alieva, Maria; Ritsma, Laila; Giedt, Randy J; Weissleder, Ralph; van Rheenen, Jacco

2014-01-01

Intravital microscopy is increasingly used to visualize and quantitate dynamic biological processes at the (sub)cellular level in live animals. By visualizing tissues through imaging windows, individual cells (e.g., cancer, host, or stem cells) can be tracked and studied over a time-span of days to months. Several imaging windows have been developed to access tissues including the brain, superficial fascia, mammary glands, liver, kidney, pancreas, and small intestine among others. Here, we review the development of imaging windows and compare the most commonly used long-term imaging windows for cancer biology: the cranial imaging window, the dorsal skin fold chamber, the mammary imaging window, and the abdominal imaging window. Moreover, we provide technical details, considerations, and trouble-shooting tips on the surgical procedures and microscopy setups for each imaging window and explain different strategies to assure imaging of the same area over multiple imaging sessions. This review aims to be a useful resource for establishing the long-term intravital imaging procedure. PMID:28243510

Long story short: an introduction to the short-term and long-term Six Sigma quality and its importance in the laboratory medicine for the management of extra-analytical processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ialongo, Cristiano; Bernardini, Sergio

2018-06-18

There is a compelling need for quality tools that enable effective control of the extra-analytical phase. In this regard, Six Sigma seems to offer a valid methodological and conceptual opportunity, and in recent times, the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine has adopted it for indicating the performance requirements for non-analytical laboratory processes. However, the Six Sigma implies a distinction between short-term and long-term quality that is based on the dynamics of the processes. These concepts are still not widespread and applied in the field of laboratory medicine although they are of fundamental importance to exploit the full potential of this methodology. This paper reviews the Six Sigma quality concepts and shows how they originated from Shewhart's control charts, in respect of which they are not an alternative but a completion. It also discusses the dynamic nature of process and how it arises, concerning particularly the long-term dynamic mean variation, and explains why this leads to the fundamental distinction of quality we previously mentioned.

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Liquidation sales: Land speculation and landscape change

Science.gov (United States)

Lazarus, E.

2012-12-01

change and deforestation around the world. Although the details differ at local scales, even disparate cases of land use and landscape changes may express similar patterns and structures. Records of sediment flux in salt marshes and fluvial deposits indicate rates of past landscape responses to human activities; the 1930s dustbowl event left a sedimentary signature in western North American lakes. Petrochemicals and fertilizers from agricultural runnoff are causing hypoxic dead zones in coastal waters to expand. In the Brazilian Amazon, regional-scale changes in weather and climate have been linked to deforestation, and deforestation has been linked to patterns of boom-bust development. But even when rampant land acquisition for agriculture or housing has been identified as problematic, the attendant environmental consequences are not necessarily obvious. The nonlinear attenuation of cause and effect is a function of the hierarchy of scales that typify these complex, human-landscape systems: the emergence of long-term, large-scale environmental dynamics lag behind the short-term, localized dynamics of a resource bubble. Insight into how these coupled systems behave may reveal the scales at which government, institutional, or self-organized social intervention may be most effective, and presents an opportunity to integrate evolving spheres of research from the behavioural sciences and Earth-surface processes.

Annual dynamics of wild bee densities: attractiveness and productivity effects of oilseed rape.

Science.gov (United States)

Riedinger, Verena; Mitesser, Oliver; Hovestadt, Thomas; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Holzschuh, Andrea

2015-05-01

Mass-flowering crops may affect long-term population dynamics, but effects on pollinators have never been studied across several years. We monitored wild bees in oilseed rape fields in 16 landscapes in Germany in two consecutive years. Effects on bee densities of landscape oilseed rape cover in the years of monitoring and in the previous years were evaluated with landscape data from three consecutive years. We fit empirical data to a mechanistic model to provide estimates for oilseed rape attractiveness and its effect on bee productivity in comparison to the rest of the landscape, and we evaluated consequences for pollinator densities in consecutive years. Our results show that high oilseed rape cover in the previous year enhances current densities of wild bees (except for bumble bees). Moreover, we show a strong attractiveness of and dilution on (i.e., decreasing bee densities with increasing landscape oilseed rape cover) oilseed rape for bees during flowering in the current year, modifying the effect of the previous year's oilseed rape cover in the case of wild bees (excluding Bombus). As long as other factors such as nesting sites or natural enemies do not limit bee reproduction, our findings suggest long-term positive effects of mass-flowering crops on bee populations, at least for non-Bombus generalists, which possibly help to maintain crop pollination services even when crop area increases. Similar effects are conceivable for other organisms providing ecosystem services in annual crops and should be considered in future studies.

Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

OpenAIRE

Sinha, Sidharth

2014-01-01

Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blower Sally

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

Dynamic sensorimotor planning during long-term sequence learning: the role of variability, response chunking and planning errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Verstynen, Timothy; Phillips, Jeff; Braun, Emily; Workman, Brett; Schunn, Christian; Schneider, Walter

2012-01-01

Many everyday skills are learned by binding otherwise independent actions into a unified sequence of responses across days or weeks of practice. Here we looked at how the dynamics of action planning and response binding change across such long timescales. Subjects (N = 23) were trained on a bimanual version of the serial reaction time task (32-item sequence) for two weeks (10 days total). Response times and accuracy both showed improvement with time, but appeared to be learned at different rates. Changes in response speed across training were associated with dynamic changes in response time variability, with faster learners expanding their variability during the early training days and then contracting response variability late in training. Using a novel measure of response chunking, we found that individual responses became temporally correlated across trials and asymptoted to set sizes of approximately 7 bound responses at the end of the first week of training. Finally, we used a state-space model of the response planning process to look at how predictive (i.e., response anticipation) and error-corrective (i.e., post-error slowing) processes correlated with learning rates for speed, accuracy and chunking. This analysis yielded non-monotonic association patterns between the state-space model parameters and learning rates, suggesting that different parts of the response planning process are relevant at different stages of long-term learning. These findings highlight the dynamic modulation of response speed, variability, accuracy and chunking as multiple movements become bound together into a larger set of responses during sequence learning.

Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Malhotra, Rahul; Love, Sean R; Liu, Chang; Do, Young

2016-03-23

Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

Feedbacks between subglacial dynamics and long-term glacial landscape evolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brædstrup, Christian; Egholm, D.L.; Ugelvig, Sofie Vej

focus this presentation on feedbacks between the evolving bed topography and the subglacial erosion patterns. We have performed our experiments with different sliding and erosion laws, including highly non-linear rules representing coulomb-type slip at the bed (Schoof, 2010) and a quarrying model...

The invasive species Ulex europaeus (Fabaceae) shows high dynamism in a fragmented landscape of south-central Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Altamirano, Adison; Cely, Jenny Paola; Etter, Andrés; Miranda, Alejandro; Fuentes-Ramirez, Andres; Acevedo, Patricio; Salas, Christian; Vargas, Rodrigo

2016-08-01

Ulex europaeus (gorse) is an invasive shrub deemed as one of the most invasive species in the world. U. europaeus is widely distributed in the south-central area of Chile, which is considered a world hotspot for biodiversity conservation. In addition to its negative effects on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems, U. europaeus is one of the most severe pests for agriculture and forestry. Despite its importance as an invasive species, U. europaeus has been little studied. Although information exists on the potential distribution of the species, the interaction of the invasion process with the spatial dynamic of the landscape and the landscape-scale factors that control the presence or absence of the species is still lacking. We studied the spatial and temporal dynamics of the landscape and how these relate to U. europaeus invasion in south-central Chile. We used supervised classification of satellite images to determine the spatial distribution of the species and other land covers for the years 1986 and 2003, analysing the transitions between the different land covers. We used logistic regression for modelling the increase, decrease and permanence of U. europaeus invasion considering landscape variables. Results showed that the species covers only around 1 % of the study area and showed a 42 % reduction in area for the studied period. However, U. europaeus was the cover type which presented the greatest dynamism in the landscape. We found a strong relationship between changes in land cover and the invasion process, especially connected with forest plantations of exotic species, which promotes the displacement of U. europaeus. The model of gorse cover increase presented the best performance, and the most important predictors were distance to seed source and landscape complexity index. Our model predicted high spread potential of U. europaeus in areas of high conservation value. We conclude that proper management for this invasive species must take into account

Long-Term Fundamentals of the 2008 Economic Crisis

OpenAIRE

David Mayer-Foulkes

2009-01-01

The current economic crisis has long-term causes that are rooted in the economic dynamics of globalization. I construct a Solow-style endogenous model of capital accumulation, technological change, trade and cheap-factor-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI), based on myopic agents. Combining advanced technologies with low costs, FDI yields extraordinary profits that generate asymmetric innovation incentives that explain the following stylized facts. Globalization (a) increases capital accu...

Identifying the characteristic of SundaParahiyangan landscape for a model of sustainable agricultural landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Dahlan, M. Z.; Nurhayati, H. S. A.; Mugnisjah, W. Q.

2017-10-01

This study was an explorative study of the various forms of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of Sundanese people in the context of sustainable agriculture. The qualitative method was used to identify SundaParahiyangan landscape by using Rapid Participatory Rural Appraisal throughsemi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, and field survey. The Landscape Characteristic Assessment and Community Sustainability Assessment were used to analyze the characteristic of landscape to achieve the sustainable agricultural landscape criteria proposed by US Department of Agriculture. The results revealed that the SundaParahiyangan agricultural landscape has a unique characteristic as a result of the long-term adaptation of agricultural society to theirlandscape through a learning process for generations. In general, this character was reflected in the typical of Sundanese’s agroecosystems such as forest garden, mixed garden, paddy field, and home garden. In addition, concept of kabuyutan is one of the TEKs related to understanding and utilization of landscape has been adapted on revitalizing the role of landscape surrounding the agroecosystem as the buffer zone by calculating and designating protected areas. To support the sustainability of production area, integrated practices of agroforestry with low-external-input and sustainable agriculture (LEISA) system can be applied in utilizing and managing agricultural resources.

Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Pains: How Cues about State Aid Learning in Dynamic Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.

2009-01-01

Successful investors seeking returns, animals foraging for food, and pilots controlling aircraft all must take into account how their current decisions will impact their future standing. One challenge facing decision makers is that options that appear attractive in the short-term may not turn out best in the long run. In this paper, we explore…

Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Bo; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Rayamajhi, Min B.; Botkin, Daniel B.

2017-01-01

ContextMelaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (hereafter melaleuca) is an invasive tree from Australia that has spread over the freshwater ecosystems of southern Florida, displacing native vegetation, thus threatening native biodiversity. Suppression of melaleuca appears to be progressing through the introduction of insect species, the weevil, Oxiops vitiosa, and the psyllid, Boreioglycaspis melaleucae.ObjectiveTo improve understanding of the possible effects of herbivory on the landscape dynamics of melaleuca in native southern Florida plant communities.MethodsWe projected likely future changes in plant communities using the individual based modeling platform, JABOWA-II, by simulating successional processes occurring in two types of southern Florida habitat, cypress swamp and bay swamp, occupied by native species and melaleuca, with the impact of insect herbivores.ResultsComputer simulations show melaleuca invasion leads to decreases in density and basal area of native species, but herbivory would effectively control melaleuca to low levels, resulting in a recovery of native species. When herbivory was modeled on pure melaleuca stands, it was more effective in stands with initially larger-sized melaleuca. Although the simulated herbivory did not eliminate melaleuca, it decreased its presence dramatically in all cases, supporting the long-term effectiveness of herbivory in controlling melaleuca invasion.ConclusionsThe results provide three conclusions relevant to management: (1) The introduction of insect herbivory that has been applied to melaleuca appears sufficient to suppress melaleuca over the long term, (2) dominant native species may recover in about 50 years, and (3) regrowth of native species will further suppress melaleuca through competition.

Fractal profit landscape of the stock market.

Science.gov (United States)

Grönlund, Andreas; Yi, Il Gu; Kim, Beom Jun

2012-01-01

We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Robert Steven Ahl

2007-01-01

Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

[Changes of wetland landscape pattern in Dayang River Estuary based on high-resolution remote sensing image].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Tao; Zhao, Dong-zhi; Zhang, Feng-shou; Wei, Bao-quan

2011-07-01

Based on the comprehensive consideration of the high resolution characteristics of remote sensing data and the current situation of land cover and land use in Dayang River Estuary wetland, a classification system with different resolutions of wetland landscape in the Estuary was established. The landscape pattern indices and landscape transition matrix were calculated by using the high resolution remote sensing data, and the dynamic changes of the landscape pattern from 1984 to 2008 were analyzed. In the study period, the wetland landscape components changed drastically. Wetland landscape transferred from natural wetland into artificial wetland, and wetland core regional area decreased. Natural wetland's largest patch area index descended, and the fragmentation degree ascended; while artificial wetland area expanded, its patch number decreased, polymerization degree increased, and the maximum patch area index had an obvious increasing trend. Increasing human activities, embankment construction, and reclamation for aquaculture were the main causes for the decrease of wetland area and the degradation of the ecological functions of Dayang River Estuary. To constitute long-term scientific and reasonable development plan, establish wetland nature reserves, protect riverway, draft strict inspective regimes for aquaculture reclamation, and energetically develop resource-based tourism industry would be the main strategies for the protection of the estuarine wetland.

Ecosystem service availability in view of long-term land-use changes: a regional case study in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Frélichová, Jana; Fanta, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 9 (2015), s. 31 ISSN 2332-8878 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13033; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13032 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Cezava * Czech Republic * ecosystems * ecosystem services * landscape * land use * long-term trends * transformation Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

Long-term effects of ungulate browsing on forest composition and structure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Didion, M.P.; Kupferschmid, A.D.; Bugmann, H.

2009-01-01

The impact of ungulate herbivores on tree regeneration and its possible consequences for long-term forest dynamics has raised concerns worldwide. In many countries, ungulate management aims at constant animal densities, whereas unmanaged ungulate populations tend to fluctuate over time. The

The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, J M; Bottrell, S H; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; Bartlett, R; Rose, R; Newton, R J; Chapman, P J

2010-06-01

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clustering of short and long-term co-movements in international financial and commodity markets in wavelet domain

Science.gov (United States)

Lahmiri, Salim; Uddin, Gazi Salah; Bekiros, Stelios

2017-11-01

We propose a general framework for measuring short and long term dynamics in asset classes based on the wavelet presentation of clustering analysis. The empirical results show strong evidence of instability of the financial system aftermath of the global financial crisis. Indeed, both short and long-term dynamics have significantly changed after the global financial crisis. This study provides an interesting insights complex structure of global financial and economic system.

[Dynamic changes of landscape pattern and hemeroby in Ximen Island wetland, Zhejiang Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Cui; Xie, Xue-Fen; Wu, Tao; Jiang, Guo-Jun; Bian, Hua-Jing; Xu, Wei

2014-11-01

Abstract: The hemeroby type classification system of Ximen Island wetland of Zhejiang Province was established based on the multiple datasets: SOPT-5 image data with a spatial resolution of 5 m in 2007 and 2010, its wetland land cover and land use status, the National Land Use Classification (on trail), and sea area use classification of marine industry standards as well as remote sensing data features. Meanwhile, the dynamic relationship between the landscape pattern and the degree of hemeroby in Ximen Island was investigated with the landscape indices and hemeroby index (HI) derived from the landscape pattern index and GIS spatial analysis. The results showed that the wetland landscape spatial heterogeneity, fragmentation and dominance index dropped, and the landscape shape index complexity was low. The human disturbance center developed from a dispersion type to a concentration type. The landscape type of the disturbance center was bare land and settlement. The HI rose up from the sea to the land. Settlement, wharf and traffic land had the highest HI. The HI of the mudflat cultivation, mudflats and raft-cultivation dramatically changed. Marine-terrestrial interlaced zone showed a low total HI with unstable characteristics. The number of patches declined of undisturbed, partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes. Mean patch areas of partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes increased, and that of the undisturbed decreased. Mean shape index of the undisturbed landscape decreased, while the partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes showed a trend of shape complication.

Geomorpho-Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Farabollini, Piero; Lugeri, Francesca; Amadio, Vittorio

2014-05-01

value -referring to biodiversity, geodiversity, culture- which can be considered as a special heritage. Starting from the concept of Geomorphosite, a geomorphologic landform with a scientific, cultural and socio-economical value (Panizza 2001), we propose a further definition, useful in the preliminary steps of the landscape analysis: "geomorpho-landscape" as a spatial object or component of a geological landscape, whose geo-morphological evolution, linked to the geological setting, are elements of aesthetical, semiological as well as historical and cultural value. The structure of the landscape is represented by the physical shape and spatial organization, in dynamic way: it is necessary to provide a readout of the landscape components that supplements the geo-morphological, lithological, geodiversity data (Lugeri et alii, 2012). The concept of "geomorpho-landscape" is conceived to address the need to describe by a synthetic approach the geological processes emerging at the landscape scale, allowing to link spatial patterns to geological processes Each geo-form has in itself geological, geo-morphological, landmark, historical and cultural features, of such special relevance, that they can be defined in terms of scientific quality, rarity, aesthetic appeal and educational and cultural value. Reference List AMADIO V. (2003). Analisi di sistemi e progetti di paesaggio. Franco Angeli, Milano, pp 236 AMADIO V, AMADEI M, BAGNAIA R, DI BUCCI D, LAURETI L, LISI A, LUGERI FR, LUGERI N. (2002). The role of Geomorphology in Landscape Ecology: The Landscape Unit Map of Italy', Scale 1: 250,000 ("Carta della Natura" Project). In: Allison RJ (ed) Applied Geomorphology: theory and practice. John Wiley & Sons, London, pp 265-282 APAT (2003). Carta della natura alla scala 1:250,000: metodologie di realizzazione. APAT, Manuali e linee guida 17/2003, Roma, pp 103 LUGERI F.R., FARABOLLINI P., GRAVIANO G. & AMADIO V. (2012). Geoheritage: Nature and culture in a landscape approach. European

Interpreting landscape change in high mountains of northeastern Oregon from long-term repeat photography.

Science.gov (United States)

Jon M. Skovlin; Gerald S. Strickler; Jesse L. Peterson; Arthur W. Sampson

2001-01-01

We compared 45 photographs taken before 1925 to photographs taken as late as 1999 and documented landscape changes above 5,000 feet elevation in the Wallowa, Elkhorn, and Greenhorn Mountains of northeastern Oregon. We noted the following major changes from these comparisons: (1) the expansion of subalpine fir into mountain grasslands, (2) the invasion of moist and wet...

Environmental implications of electricity generation in an integrated long-term planning framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, Graham M.; West, James

2012-01-01

Long-term, integrated modelling of electricity generation capacity and its operational requirements is important for coherent energy policy because of the multi-decadal lifespan of such plant, and because related fuel requirements, water consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions impact other sectors. This paper describes a physical model of electricity generation designed for long-term simulations, including the reproduction of decades of historical data, and its application to key policy questions. The simulation uses a dynamic, physical input–output model for the basic material and energy industries, embedded in an economy-wide stocks and flows framework (SFF). The historical reproduction, illustrated for the state of Victoria, is based on integrating bottom-up technical data on physical processes as inputs, and validating output against top-down aggregate data. We show that while greenhouse gas emissions would decrease significantly with the aggressive introduction of cleaner generation technology, long-term reductions are difficult to maintain against ongoing growth in consumption. Additionally, our sensitivity analysis identifies the importance of rapid action due to the age structure of operating power stations. We also identify significant imposts of alternative power generation on land and water resources, though a business-as-usual scenario would impose greater losses of water resources. - Highlights: ► System-wide dynamic analysis is needed to avoid unintended adverse environmental outcomes. ► Dynamics of long-lived plant is important in transitions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ► Large gains in GHG emissions efficiency of generation portfolios fail to maintain low emissions.

The effect of heterogeneous landscape dynamics on ecotone types at two convergent semi-arid biomes

Science.gov (United States)

Landscapes in biome transition zones consist of a mosaic of patches dominated or codominated by species from adjacent biomes. Shifts in the vegetation composition and dynamics of a biome transition zone depend upon the underlying patch dynamics of the ecotones between these dominant species. Landsca...

EXTINCTION DEBT OF PROTECTED AREAS IN DEVELOPING LANDSCAPES

Science.gov (United States)

To conserve biological diversity, protected-area networks must be based not only upon current species distributions but also the landscape's long-term capacity to support populations. We used spatially-explicit population models requiring detailed habitat and demographic data to ...

Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grubler, A.

1999-01-01

The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

Long-term impact of perfusion CT data after subarachnoid hemorrhage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathys, Christian; Martens, Daniel; Reichelt, Dorothea C.; Caspers, Julian; Aissa, Joel; May, Rebecca; Antoch, Gerald; Turowski, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Duesseldorf (Germany); Haenggi, Daniel [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Neurosurgery, Duesseldorf (Germany)

2013-11-15

Dynamic perfusion computed tomography (PCT) has been established as a diagnostic instrument for the detection of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of PCT parameters after SAH on the long-term outcome of patients. Three hundred twelve patients were retrospectively interrogated with a questionnaire 23.06 {+-} 14.33 months after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage. The modified Rankin scale (mRS) was determined, respectively. Scheduled PCT data sets from the first days after ictus were available for all patients. The maximum mean transit time over several examinations per hemisphere (MTT{sub PEAK}) values were significantly correlated (p {<=} 0.001, r = 0.422) with the clinical long-term outcome (mRS). Corresponding to our linear regression analysis, MTT{sub PEAK} is the second most important regressor (behind clinical severity of the initial hemorrhage) for the prediction of long-term mRS. An MTT{sub PEAK} threshold of 3.98 s (identified by receiver operating characteristic analysis, area under the curve = 0.75) predicted an unfavorable long-term outcome (mRS {>=} 2) with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 67.3, 74.3, 84.5, 52.1, and 69.6 %, respectively. The presented data corroborate the relevance of PCT data for the clinical long-term outcome of SAH patients. By identification of patients who are at risk for a bad outcome and may need escalation of therapy, risk-benefit analysis is supported. (orig.)

Long-term urethral catheterisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

Testing for long-range dependence in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cajueiro, Daniel O.; Tabak, Benjamin M.

2009-01-01

This paper presents empirical evidence of fractional dynamics in interest rates for different maturities for Brazil. A variation of a newly developed test for long-range dependence, the V/S statistic, with a post-blackening bootstrap is employed. Results suggest that Brazilian interest rates possess strong long-range dependence in volatility, even when considering the structural break in 1999. These findings imply that the development of policy models that give rise to long-range dependence in interest rates' volatility could be very useful. The long-short-term interest rates spread has strong long-range dependence, which suggests that traditional tests of expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates may be misspecified.

Radionuclide Incorporation and Long Term Performance of Apatite Waste Forms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jianwei [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Lian, Jie [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States); Gao, Fei [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

2016-01-04

This project aims to combines state-of-the-art experimental and characterization techniques with atomistic simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. With an initial focus on long-lived I-129 and other radionuclides such as Cs, Sr in apatite structure, specific research objectives include the atomic scale understanding of: (1) incorporation behavior of the radionuclides and their effects on the crystal chemistry and phase stability; (2) stability and microstructure evolution of designed waste forms under coupled temperature and radiation environments; (3) incorporation and migration energetics of radionuclides and release behaviors as probed by DFT and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations; and (4) chemical durability as measured in dissolution experiments for long term performance evaluation and model validation.

Succession of ephemeral secondary forests and their limited role for the conservation of floristic diversity in a human-modified tropical landscape.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michiel van Breugel

Full Text Available Both local- and landscape-scale processes drive succession of secondary forests in human-modified tropical landscapes. Nonetheless, until recently successional changes in composition and diversity have been predominantly studied at the patch level. Here, we used a unique dataset with 45 randomly selected sites across a mixed-use tropical landscape in central Panama to study forest succession simultaneously on local and landscape scales and across both life stages (seedling, sapling, juvenile and adult trees and life forms (shrubs, trees, lianas, and palms. To understand the potential of these secondary forests to conserve tree species diversity, we also evaluated the diversity of species that can persist as viable metapopulations in a dynamic patchwork of short-lived successional forests, using different assumptions about the average relative size at reproductive maturity. We found a deterministic shift in the diversity and composition of the local plant communities as well as the metacommunity, driven by variation in the rate at which species recruited into and disappeared from the secondary forests across the landscape. Our results indicate that dispersal limitation and the successional niche operate simultaneously and shape successional dynamics of the metacommunity of these early secondary forests. A high diversity of plant species across the metacommunity of early secondary forests shows a potential for restoration of diverse forests through natural succession, when trees and fragments of older forests are maintained in the agricultural matrix and land is abandoned or set aside for a long period of time. On the other hand, during the first 32 years the number of species with mature-sized individuals was a relatively small and strongly biased sub-sample of the total species pool. This implies that ephemeral secondary forests have a limited role in the long-term conservation of tree species diversity in human-modified tropical landscapes.

Long-term, deep-mantle support of the Ethiopia-Yemen Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Sembroni, Andrea; Faccenna, Claudio; Becker, Thorsten W.; Molin, Paola; Abebe, Bekele

2016-04-01

Ethiopia is a key site to investigate the interactions between mantle dynamics and surface processes because of the presence of the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), Cenozoic continental flood basalt volcanism, and plateau uplift. The role of mantle plumes in causing Ethiopia's flood basalts and tectonics has been commonly accepted. However, the location and number of plumes and their impact on surface uplift are still uncertain. Here, we present new constraints on the geological and topographic evolution of the Ethiopian Plateau (NW Ethiopia) prior to and after the emplacement of the large flood basalts (40-20 Ma). Using geological information and topographic reconstructions, we show that the large topographic dome that we see today is a long-term feature, already present prior the emplacement of the flood basalts. We also infer that large-scale doming operated even after the emplacement of the flood basalts. Using a comparison with the present-day topographic setting we show that an important component of the topography has been and is presently represented by a residual, non-isostatic, dynamic contribution. We conclude that the growth of the Ethiopian Plateau is a long-term, probably still active, dynamically supported process. Our arguments provide constraints on the processes leading to the formation of one of the largest igneous plateaus on Earth.

Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

2014-01-01

Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

Does tropical forest fragmentation increase long-term variability of butterfly communities?

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Allison K Leidner

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism, and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics.

Does Tropical Forest Fragmentation Increase Long-Term Variability of Butterfly Communities?

Science.gov (United States)

Leidner, Allison K.; Haddad, Nick M.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.

2010-01-01

Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism), and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration) did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics. PMID:20224772

Advanced nonlinear theory: Long-term stability at the SSC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heifets, S.

1987-01-01

This paper discussed the long-term stability of the particle beams in the Superconducting Super Collider. In particular the dynamics of a single particle beam is considered in depth. The topics of this paper include: the Hamiltonian of this particle approach, perturbation theory, canonical transformations, interaction of the resonances, structure of the phase space, synchro-Betatron oscillations, modulation diffusion and noise-resonance interaction. 36 refs

Interactions between lithology and biology drive the long-term response of stream chemistry to major hurricanes in a tropical landscape

Science.gov (United States)

W.H. McDowell; R.L. Brereton; F.N. Scatena; J.B. Shanley; N.V. Brokaw; A.E. Lugo

2013-01-01

Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in many global biogeochemical cycles, yet long-term records of tropical stream chemistry and its response to disturbance events such as severe storms and droughts are rare. Here we document the long-term variability in chemistry of two streams in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico over a period of 27 years. Our two focal...

Filtering mountain landscapes and hydrology through sediment transport

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, C. B.; Jerolmack, D. J.

2013-12-01

Long-term denudation of landscapes is balanced, and sometimes limited by, the sediment mass flux leaving the system through rivers. Suspended sediment represents the largest fraction of mass exiting the landscape, however coarse bed load transport may be the rate-limiting process of landscape denudation through its control on bedrock channel erosion and incision. We present research linking particle mechanics for a coarse alluvial gravel stream at the flood scale to particle dynamics at the annual timescale, and examine the implications of these results on channel geometry and the hydrology of mountain rivers. We examine the transport dynamics of individual cobbles tagged with passive radio transponder tags from the Mameyes River in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico, in both bedrock and alluvial stretches. These data are composed of measured 'flight' lengths for each transported particle, the fraction of tagged particles mobilized, and high-resolution river stage measurements. At the single flood scale, measured tracer particle flight lengths are exponentially distributed, and modal flight lengths scale linearly with excess shear velocity (U*-U*c). This is in quantitative agreement with recent theory and laboratory experiments, suggesting that moving particles' velocity is determined by momentum balance with the fluid. Examining tracer displacement at long timescales we use a dimensionless impulse (I*) - obtained by integrating the cumulative excess shear velocity over the duration of a flood (normalized by grain size) - and find that the mean travel distance collapses onto a linear relationship. Data show that partial bed load transport with intermittent motion is the dominant mode for the duration of record. Examining flood statistics, we find that the frequency-magnitude distribution of shear velocity is a power law; however, this scaling is truncated at the threshold of motion, beyond which it displays exponential scaling. The thin-tailed scaling of (U

Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos population of Alberta, Canada.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathieu L Bourbonnais

Full Text Available Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife

A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W

2017-07-01

In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the "edge of chaos" while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection-a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies.

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2018-02-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

Landscape-level analysis of mountain goat population connectivity in Washington and southern British Columbia

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie C. Parks; David O. Wallin; Samuel A. Cushman; Brad H. McRae

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and habitat loss diminish population connectivity, reducing genetic diversity and increasing extinction risk over time. Improving connectivity is widely recommended to preserve the long-term viability of populations, but this requires accurate knowledge of how landscapes influence connectivity. Detectability of landscape effects on gene...

Probing the role of long-range interactions in the dynamics of a long-range Kitaev chain

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Anirban; Dutta, Amit

2017-09-01

We study the role of long-range interactions (more precisely, the long-range superconducting gap term) on the nonequilibrium dynamics considering a long-range p -wave superconducting chain in which the superconducting term decays with distance between two sites in a power-law fashion characterized by an exponent α . We show that the Kibble-Zurek scaling exponent, dictating the power-law decay of the defect density in the final state reached following a slow (in comparison to the time scale associated with the minimum gap in the spectrum of the Hamiltonian) quenching of the chemical potential μ across a quantum critical point, depends nontrivially on the exponent α as long as α 2 , we find that the exponent saturates to the corresponding well-known value of 1 /2 expected for the short-range model. Furthermore, studying the dynamical quantum phase transitions manifested in the nonanalyticities in the rate function of the return possibility I (t ) in subsequent temporal evolution following a sudden change in μ , we show the existence of a new region; in this region, we find three instants of cusp singularities in I (t ) associated with a single sector of Fisher zeros. Notably, the width of this region shrinks as α increases and vanishes in the limit α →2 , indicating that this special region is an artifact of the long-range nature of the Hamiltonian.

Potential and flux field landscape theory. II. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics of spatially inhomogeneous stochastic dynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

2014-01-01

We have established a general non-equilibrium thermodynamic formalism consistently applicable to both spatially homogeneous and, more importantly, spatially inhomogeneous systems, governed by the Langevin and Fokker-Planck stochastic dynamics with multiple state transition mechanisms, using the potential-flux landscape framework as a bridge connecting stochastic dynamics with non-equilibrium thermodynamics. A set of non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations, quantifying the relations of the non-equilibrium entropy, entropy flow, entropy production, and other thermodynamic quantities, together with their specific expressions, is constructed from a set of dynamical decomposition equations associated with the potential-flux landscape framework. The flux velocity plays a pivotal role on both the dynamic and thermodynamic levels. On the dynamic level, it represents a dynamic force breaking detailed balance, entailing the dynamical decomposition equations. On the thermodynamic level, it represents a thermodynamic force generating entropy production, manifested in the non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and more specific examples, the spatial stochastic neuronal model, in particular, are studied to test and illustrate the general theory. This theoretical framework is particularly suitable to study the non-equilibrium (thermo)dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous systems abundant in nature. This paper is the second of a series

A vision of long-term care. To care for tomorrow's elderly, hospitals must plan now, not react later.

Science.gov (United States)

Kodner, D L

1989-12-01

In the next two decades, rapid, fundamental changes will take place in the way we finance, organize, and provide long-term care services. Because the elderly make up such a large portion of the patient population, America's hospitals should be concerned--and involved. There are six keys to the future of long-term care: a sharp increase in elderly population, a new generation of elderly, restrained government role, intergenerational strains, growing corporate concern, and the rise of "gerotechnology." These trends and countertrends will result in a new look in the long-term care landscape. By the year 2010, changes will include a true public-private financing system, provider reimbursement on the basis of capitation and prospective payment, coordinated access to services, dominant alternative delivery systems, a different breed of nursing homes, fewer staffing problems, patient-centered care, a new importance in housing, and an emphasis on prevention. For hospitals, this future vision of long-term care means that significant opportunities will open up to meet the needs of the elderly-at-risk and to achieve a competitive position in the burgeoning elderly care industry.

Long-term 4D Geoelectrical Imaging of Moisture Dynamics in an Active Landslide

Science.gov (United States)

Uhlemann, S.; Chambers, J. E.; Wilkinson, P. B.; Maurer, H.; Meldrum, P.; Gunn, D.; Smith, A.; Dijkstra, T.

2016-12-01

Landslides are a major natural hazard, endangering communities and infrastructure worldwide. Mitigating landslide risk relies on understanding causes and triggering processes, which are often linked to moisture dynamics in slopes causing material softening and elevated pore water pressures. Geoelectrical monitoring is frequently applied to study landslide hydrology. However, its sensitivity to sensor movements has been a challenge for long-term studies on actively failing slopes. Although 2D data acquisition has previously been favoured, it provides limited resolution and relatively poor representation of important 3D landslide structures. We present a novel methodology to incorporate electrode movements into a time-lapse 3D inversion workflow, resulting in a virtually artefact-free time-series of resistivity models. Using temperature correction and laboratory hydro-geophysical relationships, resistivity models are translated into models of moisture content. The data span more than three years, enabling imaging of processes pre- and post landslide reactivation. In the two years before reactivation, the models showed surficial wetting and drying, drainage pathways, and deeper groundwater dynamics. During reactivation, exceptionally high moisture contents were imaged throughout the slope, which was confirmed by independent measurements. Preferential flow was imaged that stabilized parts of the landslide by diverting moisture, and thus dissipating pore pressures, from the slip surface. The results highlight that moisture levels obtained from resistivity monitoring may provide a better activity threshold than rainfall intensity. Based on this work, pro-active remediation measures could be designed and effective early-warning systems implemented. Eventually, resistivity monitoring that can account for moving electrodes may provide a new means for pro-active mitigation of landslide risk, especially for communities and critical infrastructure.

Chernobyl radiocesium in freshwater fish: Long-term dynamics and sources of variation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sundbom, M [Uppsala Univ., Dept. of Limnology, Uppsala (Sweden)

2002-04-01

The aim of this thesis was to investigate both the long-term temporal pattern and sources of individual variation for radiocesium in freshwater fish. The basis for the study is time series of {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in fish from three lakes in the area North-west of Uppsala, Sweden that received considerable amounts of {sup 137}Cs from Chernobyl in may 1986. The lakes were Lake Ekholmssjoen, Lake Flatsjoen and Lake Siggeforasjoen, all small forest lakes, but with different morphometrical and chemical characteristics. The data were collected regularly, usually several times per year, during 1986-2000, using consistent methods. More than 7600 fish individuals from 7 species covering wide size ranges and feeding habits were analysed for {sup 137}Cs. For each fish was the length, weight, sex, and often the stomach contend recorded. The evaluation on long-term trends were based on data from all three lakes, while the study on sources of variation evaluated data from Lake Flatsjoen only. (au)

Chernobyl radiocesium in freshwater fish: Long-term dynamics and sources of variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sundbom, M.

2002-01-01

The aim of this thesis was to investigate both the long-term temporal pattern and sources of individual variation for radiocesium in freshwater fish. The basis for the study is time series of 137 Cs activity concentrations in fish from three lakes in the area North-west of Uppsala, Sweden that received considerable amounts of 137 Cs from Chernobyl in may 1986. The lakes were Lake Ekholmssjoen, Lake Flatsjoen and Lake Siggeforasjoen, all small forest lakes, but with different morphometrical and chemical characteristics. The data were collected regularly, usually several times per year, during 1986-2000, using consistent methods. More than 7600 fish individuals from 7 species covering wide size ranges and feeding habits were analysed for 137 Cs. For each fish was the length, weight, sex, and often the stomach contend recorded. The evaluation on long-term trends were based on data from all three lakes, while the study on sources of variation evaluated data from Lake Flatsjoen only. (au)

Optimization of landscape services under uncoordinated management by multiple landowners.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Porto

Full Text Available Landscapes are often patchworks of private properties, where composition and configuration patterns result from cumulative effects of the actions of multiple landowners. Securing the delivery of services in such multi-ownership landscapes is challenging, because it is difficult to assure tight compliance to spatially explicit management rules at the level of individual properties, which may hinder the conservation of critical landscape features. To deal with these constraints, a multi-objective simulation-optimization procedure was developed to select non-spatial management regimes that best meet landscape-level objectives, while accounting for uncoordinated and uncertain response of individual landowners to management rules. Optimization approximates the non-dominated Pareto frontier, combining a multi-objective genetic algorithm and a simulator that forecasts trends in landscape pattern as a function of management rules implemented annually by individual landowners. The procedure was demonstrated with a case study for the optimum scheduling of fuel treatments in cork oak forest landscapes, involving six objectives related to reducing management costs (1, reducing fire risk (3, and protecting biodiversity associated with mid- and late-successional understories (2. There was a trade-off between cost, fire risk and biodiversity objectives, that could be minimized by selecting management regimes involving ca. 60% of landowners clearing the understory at short intervals (around 5 years, and the remaining managing at long intervals (ca. 75 years or not managing. The optimal management regimes produces a mosaic landscape dominated by stands with herbaceous and low shrub understories, but also with a satisfactory representation of old understories, that was favorable in terms of both fire risk and biodiversity. The simulation-optimization procedure presented can be extended to incorporate a wide range of landscape dynamic processes, management rules

The impact of land use change and hydroclimatic variability on landscape connectivity dynamics across surface water networks at subcontinental scale

Science.gov (United States)

Tulbure, M. G.; Bishop-Taylor, R.; Broich, M.

2017-12-01

Land use (LU) change and hydroclimatic variability affect spatiotemporal landscape connectivity dynamics, important for species movement and dispersal. Despite the fact that LU change can strongly influence dispersal potential over time, prior research has only focused on the impacts of dynamic changes in the distribution of potential habitats. We used 8 time-steps of historical LU together with a Landsat-derived time-series of surface water habitat dynamics (1986-2011) over the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a region with extreme hydroclimatic variability, impacted by LU changes. To assess how changing LU and hydroclimatic variability affect landscape connectivity across time, we compared 4 scenarios, namely one where both climate and LU are dynamic over time, one where climate is kept steady (i.e. a median surface water extent layer), and two scenarios where LU is kept steady (i.e. resistance values associated with the most recent or the first LU layer). We used circuit theory to assign landscape features with `resistance' costs and graph theory network analysis, with surface water habitats as `nodes' connected by dispersal paths or `edges' Findings comparing a dry and an average season show high differences in number of nodes (14581 vs 21544) and resistance distances. The combined effect of LU change and landscape wetness was lower than expected, likely a function of the large, MDB-wide, aggregation scale. Spatially explicit analyses are expected to identify areas where the synergistic effect of LU change and landscape wetness greatly reduce or increase landscape connectivity, as well as areas where the two effects cancel each other out.

Modern warfare as a significant form of zoogeomorphic disturbance upon the landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Hupy, Joseph P.; Koehler, Thomas

2012-07-01

The damage exerted by warfare on the physical landscape is one, of many, anthropogenic impacts upon the environment. Bombturbation is a term that describes the impacts of explosive munitions upon the landscape. Bombturbation, like many other forms of zoogeomorphology, is a disruptive force, capable of moving large amounts of sediments, and denuding landscapes to the point where changes in micro and mesotopography have long-term implications. The long term implication of bombturbative actions depends on the type and duration of explosive device that rendered the disturbance, and the geographic context of the landscape disturbed; i.e. cultural and physical factors. Recovery from bombturbative activity, in the context of this research, is measured by vegetative regrowth and soil development in cratered disturbances. A comparison and contrast between the two battlefields of Verdun, France and Khe Sanh, Vietnam show that bombturbative actions have significantly altered the topography at each location, thus influencing surface runoff and processes of soil development. Principals of the Runge pedogenic model, or the energy of water moving through the soil profile, best explain how the varying climate and parent material at each location influence post disturbance soil development rates. Whereas the data collected at Verdun suggest that explosive munitions have put that landscape on diverging path of development, thus rendering it much different post-disturbance landscape, Khe Sanh displays much different recovery patterns. Preliminary research at Khe Sanh indicates that reforestation and soil development following disturbance are not so much influenced by bombturbative patterns as land use activities in the area of study.

The movement ecology and dynamics of plant communities in fragmented landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Damschen, Ellen I; Brudvig, Lars A; Haddad, Nick M; Levey, Douglas J; Orrock, John L; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2008-12-09

A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities, and external factors. We modified this framework to generate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species colonization and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersed species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time, whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of seagrass landscapes using time-series remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Lyons, Mitchell B.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

2013-03-01

The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (≈200 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and

The positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing of increasing methane emissions from a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Helbig, Manuel; Chasmer, Laura E; Kljun, NatasCha; Quinton, William L; Treat, Claire C; Sonnentag, Oliver

2017-06-01

At the southern margin of permafrost in North America, climate change causes widespread permafrost thaw. In boreal lowlands, thawing forested permafrost peat plateaus ('forest') lead to expansion of permafrost-free wetlands ('wetland'). Expanding wetland area with saturated and warmer organic soils is expected to increase landscape methane (CH 4 ) emissions. Here, we quantify the thaw-induced increase in CH 4 emissions for a boreal forest-wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, Canada, and evaluate its impact on net radiative forcing relative to potential long-term net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange. Using nested wetland and landscape eddy covariance net CH 4 flux measurements in combination with flux footprint modeling, we find that landscape CH 4 emissions increase with increasing wetland-to-forest ratio. Landscape CH 4 emissions are most sensitive to this ratio during peak emission periods, when wetland soils are up to 10 °C warmer than forest soils. The cumulative growing season (May-October) wetland CH 4 emission of ~13 g CH 4  m -2 is the dominating contribution to the landscape CH 4 emission of ~7 g CH 4  m -2 . In contrast, forest contributions to landscape CH 4 emissions appear to be negligible. The rapid wetland expansion of 0.26 ± 0.05% yr -1 in this region causes an estimated growing season increase of 0.034 ± 0.007 g CH 4  m -2  yr -1 in landscape CH 4 emissions. A long-term net CO 2 uptake of >200 g CO 2  m -2  yr -1 is required to offset the positive radiative forcing of increasing CH 4 emissions until the end of the 21st century as indicated by an atmospheric CH 4 and CO 2 concentration model. However, long-term apparent carbon accumulation rates in similar boreal forest-wetland landscapes and eddy covariance landscape net CO 2 flux measurements suggest a long-term net CO 2 uptake between 49 and 157 g CO 2  m -2  yr -1 . Thus, thaw-induced CH 4 emission increases likely exert a positive net radiative greenhouse gas

Deteriorating water clarity in shallow waters: Evidence from long term MODIS and in-situ observations

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Pan, Delu

2018-06-01

Water clarity (Secchi disk depth: SDD), as a proxy of water transparency, provides important information on the light availability to the water or lake ecosystem. Shallow lakes have been experienced dramatic environmental and climatic change. This study demonstrated using combination of long-term MODIS and in-situ measurements to track the dynamics of SDD with these environmental and climate changes in shallow water environments. We selected a typical turbid shallow Lake Taihu as our case study. Based on MODIS-Aqua data, an empirical model for estimating SDD was developed and validated. Subsequently, we employed the proposed model to derive the spatial and temporal SDD distribution patterns of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2015. Combining MODIS-derived SDD time series of 2003-2015 and long-term in-situ SDD observations dated back to 1993, we elucidated SDD long-term variation trends and driving mechanism. Deteriorating water clarity from the long-term SDD observations indicated that Lake Taihu became more and more turbid and water quality was decreasing. Increasing in cyanobacterial bloom area, as a result of decreasing in wind speed and eutrophication, may partially be responsible for the decreasing trend. A predicted future decrease in the wind speed in Lake Taihu region could enhance the formation of cyanobacterial blooms and consequently lead to a further decrease in water clarity. This study suggested that coupling remote sensing monitoring and long-term in-situ observations could provide robust evidence and new insights to elucidate long-term dynamics in aquatic ecosystem evolution.

Geomorphology, active tectonics, and landscape evolution in the Mid-Atlantic region: Chapter

Science.gov (United States)

Pazzaglia, Frank J.; Carter, Mark W.; Berti, Claudio; Counts, Ronald C.; Hancock, Gregory S.; Harbor, David; Harrison, Richard W.; Heller, Matthew J.; Mahan, Shannon; Malenda, Helen; McKeon, Ryan; Nelson, Michelle S.; Prince, Phillip; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Spotilla, James; Whittecar, G. Richard

2015-01-01

In 2014, the geomorphology community marked the 125th birthday of one of its most influential papers, “The Rivers and Valleys of Pennsylvania” by William Morris Davis. Inspired by Davis’s work, the Appalachian landscape rapidly became fertile ground for the development and testing of several grand landscape evolution paradigms, culminating with John Hack’s dynamic equilibrium in 1960. As part of the 2015 GSA Annual Meeting, the Geomorphology, Active Tectonics, and Landscape Evolution field trip offers an excellent venue for exploring Appalachian geomorphology through the lens of the Appalachian landscape, leveraging exciting research by a new generation of process-oriented geomorphologists and geologic field mapping. Important geomorphologic scholarship has recently used the Appalachian landscape as the testing ground for ideas on long- and short-term erosion, dynamic topography, glacial-isostatic adjustments, active tectonics in an intraplate setting, river incision, periglacial processes, and soil-saprolite formation. This field trip explores a geologic and geomorphic transect of the mid-Atlantic margin, starting in the Blue Ridge of Virginia and proceeding to the east across the Piedmont to the Coastal Plain. The emphasis here will not only be on the geomorphology, but also the underlying geology that establishes the template and foundation upon which surface processes have etched out the familiar Appalachian landscape. The first day focuses on new and published work that highlights Cenozoic sedimentary deposits, soils, paleosols, and geomorphic markers (terraces and knickpoints) that are being used to reconstruct a late Cenozoic history of erosion, deposition, climate change, and active tectonics. The second day is similarly devoted to new and published work documenting the fluvial geomorphic response to active tectonics in the Central Virginia seismic zone (CVSZ), site of the 2011 M 5.8 Mineral earthquake and the integrated record of Appalachian

The energy landscape of glassy dynamics on the amorphous hafnium diboride surface

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Duc; Mallek, Justin; Cloud, Andrew N.; Abelson, John R.; Girolami, Gregory S.; Lyding, Joseph; Gruebele, Martin

2014-11-01

Direct visualization of the dynamics of structural glasses and amorphous solids on the sub-nanometer scale provides rich information unavailable from bulk or conventional single molecule techniques. We study the surface of hafnium diboride, a conductive ultrahigh temperature ceramic material that can be grown in amorphous films. Our scanning tunneling movies have a second-to-hour dynamic range and single-point current measurements extend that to the millisecond-to-minute time scale. On the a-HfB2 glass surface, two-state hopping of 1-2 nm diameter cooperatively rearranging regions or "clusters" occurs from sub-milliseconds to hours. We characterize individual clusters in detail through high-resolution (single cluster vertical displacements, we can reconstruct the local free energy landscape of individual clusters, complete with activation barrier height, a reaction coordinate in nanometers, and the shape of the free energy landscape basins between which hopping occurs. The experimental images are consistent with the compact shape of α-relaxors predicted by random first order transition theory, whereas the rapid hopping rate, even taking less confined motion at the surface into account, is consistent with β-relaxations. We make a proposal of how "mixed" features can show up in surface dynamics of glasses.

European landscape architecture and territorial strategies for water landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diedrich, Lisa Babette

2010-01-01

This article sums up the author’s lecture at the 2009 Sydney Resilient Water Landscapes Symposium and presents a series of realized or planned European landscape architectural and urbanistic projects on water landscapes taken from the recently published book On Site/ Landscape Architecture Europe...... and accompanying reflections. The hypothesis is that further scientific research can help defining weaknesses and strengths of the existing water landscape designs in terms of resilience, extract principles and tools, improve the weak ones and communicate the strong ones and develop general quality criteria...... and tools for future resilient water landscapes....

Benign tracheobronchial stenoses: changes in short-term and long-term pulmonary function testing after expandable metallic stent placement.

Science.gov (United States)

Gotway, Michael B; Golden, Jeffrey A; LaBerge, Jeanne M; Webb, W Richard; Reddy, Gautham P; Wilson, Mark W; Kerlan, Robert K; Gordon, Roy L

2002-01-01

To determine the short- and long-term improvement in airflow dynamics in patients undergoing tracheobronchial stent placement for benign airway stenoses. Twenty-two patients underwent 34 tracheal and/or bronchial stent placement procedures for benign airway stenoses and had the results of pulmonary function tests available. Stent placement indications included bronchomalacia after lung transplantation (n = 11), postintubation stenoses (n = 6), relapsing polychondritis (n = 2), and 1 each of tracheomalacia, tracheal compression, and histoplasmosis. Six patients underwent more than one stent placement procedure (range: 2-7 procedures). The mean forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1) ), forced expiratory flow rate in the midportion of the forced vital capacity curve (FEF(25-75) ), forced vital capacity, and peak flow (PF) rate obtained before stent placement were compared with those immediately after stent placement and with those measurements most remote from stent placement using the paired two-tailed test. All patients reported improved respiratory function immediately after stent placement. The mean FEV(1), FEF(25-75), and PF rate improved significantly (p stent placement. On long-term follow-up averaging 15 months after stent placement, these parameters declined despite patients' subjective sense of improvement. Segregating the population into transplant and nontransplant airway stenosis etiologies, however, FEF(25-75) and PF rate remained significantly improved (p = 0.045, p = 0.027, respectively), over the long term for the latter. FEV increased after subsequent stent placements for patients receiving multiple stents. Stent placement for benign tracheobronchial stenoses provides significant immediate improvement in airflow dynamics. Long-term improvement in airflow obstruction may be expected, and additional stent placements may further improve pulmonary function.

Long-Term Monitoring of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Development and Application of Remote Sensing Technologies: Summary Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamada, Yuki [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division; Grippo, Mark A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division; Smith, Karen P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division

2014-09-30

In anticipation of increased utility-scale solar energy development over the next 20 to 50 years, federal agencies and other organizations have identified a need to develop comprehensive long-term monitoring programs specific to solar energy development. Increasingly, stakeholders are requesting that federal agencies, such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management (BLM), develop rigorous and comprehensive long-term monitoring programs. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is assisting the BLM in developing an effective long-term monitoring plan as required by the BLM Solar Energy Program to study the environmental effects of solar energy development. The monitoring data can be used to protect land resources from harmful development practices while at the same time reducing restrictions on utility-scale solar energy development that are determined to be unnecessary. The development of a long-term monitoring plan that incorporates regional datasets, prioritizes requirements in the context of landscape-scale conditions and trends, and integrates cost-effective data collection methods (such as remote sensing technologies) will translate into lower monitoring costs and increased certainty for solar developers regarding requirements for developing projects on public lands. This outcome will support U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Sunshot Program goals. For this reason, the DOE provided funding for the work presented in this report.

Landscape dynamics analysis in Iasi Metropolitan Area (Romania using remote sensing data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CÃTÃLIN CÎMPIANU

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The present paper focuses on the observation and quantification of land cover changes in Iasi Metropolitan Area during 1993-2009. The analysis is centered upon the built-up space dynamics and includes the detection of its extension directions and the measurement of its structural changes by landscape metrics. In order to obtain the land cover data, some remote sensing images were processed by supervised classification and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI. In the end of the study, a synthetic statistical analysis of the change dynamics is performed at commune level, in order to compare the administrative units by the intensity of land cover dynamics.

Blood status in the long-term radiation syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Galstyan I.A.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Aims: to reveal regularities of change of peripheral blood indicators in the long-term acute radiation syndrome (ARS depending on its initial severity and existence of various somatic diseases. Material and methods. Clinical he-matologic materials from 114 patients in the long-term ARS (from 1,5 to more than 20 years after radiation accident, developed as a result of gamma beta exposure are presented. Results. In the period of the late radiation effect average values of peripheral blood are in physiological norm limits. However at some patients there are temporary superficial cytopenic conditions (thrombocytopenia — 22,7%, a leukopenia — 12,2%, a neutropenia — 13,1%, a lymphocytope-nia — 10,5%. Conclusion. As a result of a dynamic research it is revealed that in the remote terms of ARS (from 1,5 to more than 20 years after radiation average group levels of erythrocytes, leukocytes, neutrophils and lymphocytes in blood are in limits of physiological norm. However in the individual analysis of a functional state of blood at a part of patients are noted not stable cytopenic states.

Couverture dynamique optimale du risque de change de long terme pour une entreprise

OpenAIRE

Wojakowski, Rafal

1997-01-01

Chapter 1 : Optimal dynamic level risk hedging for a corporation. An optimal hedging of the exchange rate risk for a firm is considered. The concept of the long term exchange rate risk is defined by opposition to the classic exchange rate risk. The optimal hedge of the intertemporal long term exchange rate risk is derived by the method of stochastic optimal control, in a model where the exchange rate follows a Gaussian process with return to the level of parity. It is demonstrated that such a...

Examination of the rheological properties of stirred joghurt during the long-term storage by using dynamic oscillation method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milica Vilušić

2003-07-01

Full Text Available In this work the rheological properties of stirred yoghurt during the longterm storage at 4 and 8°C were investigated. The optimal quantity of additives, in order to increase dry matter content (whole milk powder and whey protein-lactalbumin, was preliminary determined and the fermentation was performed. During 42 days, i.e., 1st, 7th, 14th, 21st, 28th, 35th and 42nd day of storage of stirred yoghurt, in refrigerator at 4 and 8°C, the changes of pH value, acidity and rheological properties by using of dynamic oscillation method were observed. Results of this work indicated that an addition of whole milk powder and whey protein have an influence on rheological properties of stirred yoghurt. The long-term storage of stirred yoghurt and the results of dynamic oscilations showed permanently higher G’storage (elasticity modulus, where elastic properties of viscoelastic products dominate, in comparison with the G” loss (viscosity modulus. Increased moduls of elasticy and viscosity, as function of time, permanently occurs at pH value 4.00 and lower, as an indication of alteration of long casein chains in the coagulum structure. Different temperatures of storage had no influence on changes of rheological properties of examinated types of stirred yoghur. The relation of above mentioned moduls of elasticy and viscosity kept the same increasing tendency.

Long-term perspectives on world metal use - a model-based approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren DP; Strengers BJ; Vries HJM de; MNV

1999-01-01

In this report, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This

Natural variation in long-term memory formation among Nasonia parasitic wasp species

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoedjes, K.M.; Smid, H.M.

2014-01-01

Closely related species of parasitic wasps can differ substantially in memory dynamics. In this study we demonstrate differences in the number of conditioning trials required to form long-term memory between the closely related parasitic wasp species Nasonia vitripennis and Nasonia giraulti

Long-term agroecosystem research in the central Mississippi river basin: introduction, establishment, and overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadler, E John; Lerch, Robert N; Kitchen, Newell R; Anderson, Stephen H; Baffaut, Claire; Sudduth, Kenneth A; Prato, Anthony A; Kremer, Robert J; Vories, Earl D; Myers, D Brent; Broz, Robert; Miles, Randall J; Young, Fred J

2015-01-01

Many challenges currently facing agriculture require long-term data on landscape-scale hydrologic responses to weather, such as from the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW), located in northeastern Missouri, USA. This watershed is prone to surface runoff despite shallow slopes, as a result of a significant smectitic clay layer 30 to 50 cm deep that restricts downward flow of water and gives rise to a periodic perched water table. This paper is the first in a series that documents the database developed from GCEW. The objectives of this paper are to (i) establish the context of long-term data and the federal infrastructure that provides it, (ii) describe the GCEW/ Central Mississippi River Basin (CMRB) establishment and the geophysical and anthropogenic context, (iii) summarize in brief the collected research results published using data from within GCEW, (iv) describe the series of papers this work introduces, and (v) identify knowledge gaps and research needs. The rationale for the collection derives from converging trends in data from long-term research, integration of multiple disciplines, and increasing public awareness of increasingly larger problems. The outcome of those trends includes being selected as the CMRB site in the USDA-ARS Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research (LTAR) network. Research needs include quantifying watershed scale fluxes of N, P, K, sediment, and energy, accounting for fluxes involving forest, livestock, and anthropogenic sources, scaling from near-term point-scale results to increasingly long and broad scales, and considering whole-system interactions. This special section informs the scientific community about this database and provides support for its future use in research to solve natural resource problems important to US agricultural, environmental, and science policy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social evolution and genetic interactions in the short and long term.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Cleve, Jeremy

2015-08-01

The evolution of social traits remains one of the most fascinating and feisty topics in evolutionary biology even after half a century of theoretical research. W.D. Hamilton shaped much of the field initially with his 1964 papers that laid out the foundation for understanding the effect of genetic relatedness on the evolution of social behavior. Early theoretical investigations revealed two critical assumptions required for Hamilton's rule to hold in dynamical models: weak selection and additive genetic interactions. However, only recently have analytical approaches from population genetics and evolutionary game theory developed sufficiently so that social evolution can be studied under the joint action of selection, mutation, and genetic drift. We review how these approaches suggest two timescales for evolution under weak mutation: (i) a short-term timescale where evolution occurs between a finite set of alleles, and (ii) a long-term timescale where a continuum of alleles are possible and populations evolve continuously from one monomorphic trait to another. We show how Hamilton's rule emerges from the short-term analysis under additivity and how non-additive genetic interactions can be accounted for more generally. This short-term approach reproduces, synthesizes, and generalizes many previous results including the one-third law from evolutionary game theory and risk dominance from economic game theory. Using the long-term approach, we illustrate how trait evolution can be described with a diffusion equation that is a stochastic analogue of the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics. Peaks in the stationary distribution of the diffusion capture classic notions of convergence stability from evolutionary game theory and generally depend on the additive genetic interactions inherent in Hamilton's rule. Surprisingly, the peaks of the long-term stationary distribution can predict the effects of simple kinds of non-additive interactions. Additionally, the peaks

Quantifying long-term evolution of intra-urban spatial interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Lijun; Jin, Jian Gang; Axhausen, Kay W.; Lee, Der-Horng; Cebrian, Manuel

2015-01-01

Understanding the long-term impact that changes in a city's transportation infrastructure have on its spatial interactions remains a challenge. The difficulty arises from the fact that the real impact may not be revealed in static or aggregated mobility measures, as these are remarkably robust to perturbations. More generally, the lack of longitudinal, cross-sectional data demonstrating the evolution of spatial interactions at a meaningful urban scale also hinders us from evaluating the sensitivity of movement indicators, limiting our capacity to understand the evolution of urban mobility in depth. Using very large mobility records distributed over 3 years, we quantify the impact of the completion of a metro line extension: the Circle Line (CCL) in Singapore. We find that the commonly used movement indicators are almost identical before and after the project was completed. However, in comparing the temporal community structure across years, we do observe significant differences in the spatial reorganization of the affected geographical areas. The completion of CCL enables travellers to re-identify their desired destinations collectively with lower transport cost, making the community structure more consistent. These changes in locality are dynamic and characterized over short timescales, offering us a different approach to identify and analyse the long-term impact of new infrastructures on cities and their evolution dynamics. PMID:25551142

Urban Landscapes and Sustainable Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erik Andersson

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Ecological research targeting sustainable urban landscapes needs to include findings and methods from many lines of ecological research, such as the link between biodiversity and ecosystem function, the role of humans in ecosystems, landscape connectivity, and resilience. This paper reviews and highlights the importance of these issues for sustainable use of ecosystem services, which is argued to be one aspect of sustainable cities. The paper stresses the need to include social and economic factors when analyzing urban landscapes. Spatially explicit data can be used to assess the roles different green areas have in providing people with ecosystem services, and whether people actually have access to the services. Such data can also be used to assess connectivity and heterogeneity, both argued to be central for continuous, long-term provision of these services, and to determine the role urban form has for sustainability.

The Examination of The Main Transportation Arteries of Konya In Terms of Landscape Architecture Design Criteria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sertaç Güngör

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Ensuring comfort of use and security of pedestrians, which are the main users of urban green spaces, and the determination of their needs are important since local authorities are guiding for new pedestrian zone studies in the Konya city. Because of the problems caused by the upper structure, the necessary care is not given in terms of transportation comfort, pedestrian safety, vehicle security, plant design and ergonomic / antropemetric standards. The pedestrian way and refuge landscape designs have an important position and amount among open green areas on the scale of Konya. However, it was identified that the applications conducted were inadequate in terms of aesthetic and functional characteristics and were not suitable for the urban landscape design principles, in general, and the standards of urban afforestation of the streets. In this study, the current situation of 3 main streets of Konya used most intensely was examined in terms of landscape design criteria and some suggestions were made by attempting to identify the improvement works that should be performed by the public authorities.

Short-term impact of deep sand extraction and ecosystem-based landscaping on macrozoobenthos and sediment characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

de Jong, Maarten F; Baptist, Martin J; Lindeboom, Han J; Hoekstra, Piet

2015-08-15

We studied short-term changes in macrozoobenthos in a 20m deep borrow pit. A boxcorer was used to sample macrobenthic infauna and a bottom sledge was used to sample macrobenthic epifauna. Sediment characteristics were determined from the boxcore samples, bed shear stress and near-bed salinity were estimated with a hydrodynamic model. Two years after the cessation of sand extraction, macrozoobenthic biomass increased fivefold in the deepest areas. Species composition changed significantly and white furrow shell (Abra alba) became abundant. Several sediment characteristics also changed significantly in the deepest parts. Macrozoobenthic species composition and biomass significantly correlated with time after cessation of sand extraction, sediment and hydrographical characteristics. Ecosystem-based landscaped sand bars were found to be effective in influencing sediment characteristics and macrozoobenthic assemblage. Significant changes in epifauna occurred in deepest parts in 2012 which coincided with the highest sedimentation rate. We recommend continuing monitoring to investigate medium and long-term impacts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Jaguar Densities across Human-Dominated Landscapes in Colombia: The Contribution of Unprotected Areas to Long Term Conservation.

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Valeria Boron

Full Text Available Large carnivores such as jaguars (Panthera onca are species of conservation concern because they are suffering population declines and are keystone species in their ecosystems. Their large area requirements imply that unprotected and ever-increasing agricultural regions can be important habitats as they allow connectivity and dispersal among core protected areas. Yet information on jaguar densities across unprotected landscapes it is still scarce and crucially needed to assist management and range-wide conservation strategies. Our study provides the first jaguar density estimates of Colombia in agricultural regions which included cattle ranching, the main land use in the country, and oil palm cultivation, an increasing land use across the Neotropics. We used camera trapping across two agricultural landscapes located in the Magdalena River valley and in the Colombian llanos (47-53 stations respectively; >2000 trap nights at both sites and classic and spatially explicit capture-recapture models with the sex of individuals as a covariate. Density estimates were 2.52±0.46-3.15±1.08 adults/100 km2 in the Magdalena valley, whereas 1.12±0.13-2.19±0.99 adults/100 km2 in the Colombian llanos, depending on analysis used. We suggest that jaguars are able to live across unprotected human-use areas and co-exist with agricultural landscapes including oil-palm plantations if natural areas and riparian habitats persist in the landscape and hunting of both jaguar and prey is limited. In the face of an expanding agriculture across the tropics we recommend land-use planning, adequate incentives, regulations, and good agricultural practices for range-wide jaguar connectivity and survival.

Succession of Ephemeral Secondary Forests and Their Limited Role for the Conservation of Floristic Diversity in a Human-Modified Tropical Landscape

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Breugel, Michiel; Hall, Jefferson S.; Craven, Dylan

2013-01-01

of these secondary forests to conserve tree species diversity, we also evaluated the diversity of species that can persist as viable metapopulations in a dynamic patchwork of short-lived successional forests, using different assumptions about the average relative size at reproductive maturity. We found...... niche operate simultaneously and shape successional dynamics of the metacommunity of these early secondary forests. A high diversity of plant species across the metacommunity of early secondary forests shows a potential for restoration of diverse forests through natural succession, when trees....... This implies that ephemeral secondary forests have a limited role in the long-term conservation of tree species diversity in human-modified tropical landscapes....

Historical Land Use Dynamics in the Highly Degraded Landscape of the Calhoun Critical Zone Observatory

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Michael R. Coughlan

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Processes of land degradation and regeneration display fine scale heterogeneity often intimately linked with land use. Yet, examinations of the relationships between land use and land degradation often lack the resolution necessary to understand how local institutions differentially modulate feedback between individual farmers and the spatially heterogeneous effects of land use on soils. In this paper, we examine an historical example of a transition from agriculture to forest dominated land use (c. 1933–1941 in a highly degraded landscape on the Piedmont of South Carolina. Our landscape-scale approach examines land use and tenure at the level that individuals enact management decisions. We used logistic regression techniques to examine associations between land use, land tenure, topography, and market cost-distance. Our findings suggest that farmer responses to changing market and policy conditions were influenced by topographic characteristics associated with productivity and long-term viability of agricultural land use. Further, although local environmental feedbacks help to explain spatial patterning of land use, property regime and land tenure arrangements also significantly constrained the ability of farmers to adapt to changing socioeconomic and environmental conditions.

Temporal phylogeography of Yersinia pestis in Madagascar: Insights into the long-term maintenance of plague.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy J Vogler

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Yersinia pestis appears to be maintained in multiple, geographically separate, and phylogenetically distinct subpopulations within the highlands of Madagascar. However, the dynamics of these locally differentiated subpopulations through time are mostly unknown. To address that gap and further inform our understanding of plague epidemiology, we investigated the phylogeography of Y. pestis in Madagascar over an 18 year period.We generated whole genome sequences for 31 strains and discovered new SNPs that we used in conjunction with previously identified SNPs and variable-number tandem repeats (VNTRs to genotype 773 Malagasy Y. pestis samples from 1995 to 2012. We mapped the locations where samples were obtained on a fine geographic scale to examine phylogeographic patterns through time. We identified 18 geographically separate and phylogenetically distinct subpopulations that display spatial and temporal stability, persisting in the same locations over a period of almost two decades. We found that geographic areas with higher levels of topographical relief are associated with greater levels of phylogenetic diversity and that sampling frequency can vary considerably among subpopulations and from year to year. We also found evidence of various Y. pestis dispersal events, including over long distances, but no evidence that any dispersal events resulted in successful establishment of a transferred genotype in a new location during the examined time period.Our analysis suggests that persistent endemic cycles of Y. pestis transmission within local areas are responsible for the long term maintenance of plague in Madagascar, rather than repeated episodes of wide scale epidemic spread. Landscape likely plays a role in maintaining Y. pestis subpopulations in Madagascar, with increased topographical relief associated with increased levels of localized differentiation. Local ecological factors likely affect the dynamics of individual subpopulations and the

Temporal phylogeography of Yersinia pestis in Madagascar: Insights into the long-term maintenance of plague.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Amy J; Andrianaivoarimanana, Voahangy; Telfer, Sandra; Hall, Carina M; Sahl, Jason W; Hepp, Crystal M; Centner, Heather; Andersen, Genevieve; Birdsell, Dawn N; Rahalison, Lila; Nottingham, Roxanne; Keim, Paul; Wagner, David M; Rajerison, Minoarisoa

2017-09-01

Yersinia pestis appears to be maintained in multiple, geographically separate, and phylogenetically distinct subpopulations within the highlands of Madagascar. However, the dynamics of these locally differentiated subpopulations through time are mostly unknown. To address that gap and further inform our understanding of plague epidemiology, we investigated the phylogeography of Y. pestis in Madagascar over an 18 year period. We generated whole genome sequences for 31 strains and discovered new SNPs that we used in conjunction with previously identified SNPs and variable-number tandem repeats (VNTRs) to genotype 773 Malagasy Y. pestis samples from 1995 to 2012. We mapped the locations where samples were obtained on a fine geographic scale to examine phylogeographic patterns through time. We identified 18 geographically separate and phylogenetically distinct subpopulations that display spatial and temporal stability, persisting in the same locations over a period of almost two decades. We found that geographic areas with higher levels of topographical relief are associated with greater levels of phylogenetic diversity and that sampling frequency can vary considerably among subpopulations and from year to year. We also found evidence of various Y. pestis dispersal events, including over long distances, but no evidence that any dispersal events resulted in successful establishment of a transferred genotype in a new location during the examined time period. Our analysis suggests that persistent endemic cycles of Y. pestis transmission within local areas are responsible for the long term maintenance of plague in Madagascar, rather than repeated episodes of wide scale epidemic spread. Landscape likely plays a role in maintaining Y. pestis subpopulations in Madagascar, with increased topographical relief associated with increased levels of localized differentiation. Local ecological factors likely affect the dynamics of individual subpopulations and the associated

Reforming Long-Term Care Funding in Alberta.

Science.gov (United States)

Crump, R Trafford; Repin, Nadya; Sutherland, Jason M

2015-01-01

Like many provinces across Canada, Alberta is facing growing demand for long-term care. Issues with the mixed funding model used to pay long-term care providers had Alberta Health Services concerned that it was not efficiently meeting the demand for long-term care. Consequently, in 2010, Alberta Health Services introduced the patient/care-based funding (PCBF) model. PCBF is similar to activity-based funding in that it directly ties the complexity and care needs of long-term care residents to the payment received by long-term care providers. This review describes PCBF and discusses some of its strengths and weaknesses. In doing so, this review is intended to inform other provinces faced with similar long-term care challenges and contemplating their own funding reforms.

Evaluation of 137 Cs in Chernobyl landscapes: mapping surface migration balance as background for application of rehabilitation technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davydchuk, V.; Arapis, G.

1995-01-01

This work includes two maps of balance evaluation of 137 Cs horizontal migration in natural landscapes of Chernobyl zone. The first map shows the short-term balance, which reflects the evaluation of 137 Cs migration from present up to 20-30 years in future. the second map refers to the kong-term balance and represents a forecast of the radioecological situation 60-80 years from the accident. On the base of our evaluation the territory of 30-km zone of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant can be divided in three parts, approximately equal but slightly differentiated in time. In fact, the landscape of extreme-morainic ridge of Christogalovka presents a clear negative balance of 137 Cs both in short-term and in long-term aspects. Landscapes with negative balance of the 137 Cs occupy for short-term about 37 % and for long-term 41 % of the investigated territory. Neutral balance is expected for short- and long-term to be approximately 39 % and 35 % of the territory respectively. Positive balance is expected for approx. 24 % of the territory in both terms. The proposed evaluations are qualitative and they can be used as background for preparation of any decisions related to the application of decontamination technologies and its ecological consequences

Dynamic Strength and Accumulated Plastic Strain Development Laws and Models of the Remolded Red Clay under Long-Term Cyclic Loads: Laboratory Test Results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Jian

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain are two important parameters for evaluating the dynamic response of soil. As a special clay, the remolded red clay is often used as the high speed railway subgrade filling, but studies on its dynamic characteristics are few. For a thorough analysis of the suitability of the remolded red clay as the subgrade filling, a series of long-term cyclic load triaxial test under different load histories are carried out. Considering the influence of compactness, confining pressure, consolidation ratio, vibration frequency and dynamic load to the remolded red clay dynamic property, the tests obtain the development curves of the dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain under different test conditions. Then, through curve fitting method, two different hyperbolic models respectively for the dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain are built, which can match the test datum well. By applying the dynamic strength model, the critical dynamic strength of the remolded red clay are gained. Meanwhile, for providing basic datum and reference for relevant projects, all key parameters for the dynamic strength and accumulated plastic strain of the remolded red clay are given in the paper.

The metabolic dynamics of cartilage explants over a long-term culture period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E.K Moo

2011-01-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although previous studies have been performed on cartilage explant cultures, the generalized dynamics of cartilage metabolism after extraction from the host are still poorly understood due to differences in the experimental setups across studies, which in turn prevent building a complete picture. METHODS: In this study, we investigated the response of cartilage to the trauma sustained during extraction and determined the time needed for the cartilage to stabilize. Explants were extracted aseptically from bovine metacarpal-phalangeal joints and cultured for up to 17 days. RESULTS: The cell viability, cell number, proteoglycan content, and collagen content of the harvested explants were analyzed at 0, 2, 10, and 17 days after explantation. A high percentage of the cartilage explants were found to be viable. The cell density initially increased significantly but stabilized after two days. The proteoglycan content decreased gradually over time, but it did not decrease to a significant level due to leakage through the distorted peripheral collagen network and into the bathing medium. The collagen content remained stable for most of the culture period until it dropped abruptly on day 17. CONCLUSION: Overall, the tested cartilage explants were sustainable over long-term culture. They were most stable from day 2 to day 10. The degradation of the collagen on day 17 did not reach diseased levels, but it indicated the potential of the cultures to develop into degenerated cartilage. These findings have implications for the application of cartilage explants in pathophysiological fields.

Encounter success of free-ranging marine predator movements across a dynamic prey landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Sims, David W; Witt, Matthew J; Richardson, Anthony J; Southall, Emily J; Metcalfe, Julian D

2006-05-22

Movements of wide-ranging top predators can now be studied effectively using satellite and archival telemetry. However, the motivations underlying movements remain difficult to determine because trajectories are seldom related to key biological gradients, such as changing prey distributions. Here, we use a dynamic prey landscape of zooplankton biomass in the north-east Atlantic Ocean to examine active habitat selection in the plankton-feeding basking shark Cetorhinus maximus. The relative success of shark searches across this landscape was examined by comparing prey biomass encountered by sharks with encounters by random-walk simulations of 'model' sharks. Movements of transmitter-tagged sharks monitored for 964 days (16754 km estimated minimum distance) were concentrated on the European continental shelf in areas characterized by high seasonal productivity and complex prey distributions. We show movements by adult and sub-adult sharks yielded consistently higher prey encounter rates than 90% of random-walk simulations. Behavioural patterns were consistent with basking sharks using search tactics structured across multiple scales to exploit the richest prey areas available in preferred habitats. Simple behavioural rules based on learned responses to previously encountered prey distributions may explain the high performances. This study highlights how dynamic prey landscapes enable active habitat selection in large predators to be investigated from a trophic perspective, an approach that may inform conservation by identifying critical habitat of vulnerable species.

Understanding landscape dynamics over thousand years : combining field and model work : with case study in the Drakensberg foothill, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Temme, A.J.A.M.

2008-01-01

The title of this thesis is “Understanding landscape dynamics over thousands of years : combining field and model work, with a case study in the Drakensberg Foothills, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa”. As the title clearly states, the overall objective is an increased knowledge of landscape dynamics

Barrier analogs: Long-term performance issues, preliminary studies, and recommendations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waugh, W.J. [Rust Geotech, Inc., Grand Junction, CO (United States). Environmental Sciences Lab.; Chatters, J.C.; Last, G.V.; Bjornstad, B.N.; Link, S.O. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Hunter, C.R. [Cascade Earth Sciences, La Grande, OR (United States)

1994-02-01

The US Department of Energy`s Hanford Protective Barrier Development Program is funding studies of natural analogs of the long-term performance of waste site covers. Natural-analog studies examine past environments as evidence for projecting the future performance of engineered structures. The information generated by analog studies is needed to (1) evaluate the designs and results of short term experiments and demonstrations, (2) formulate performance-modeling problems that bound expected changes in waste site environments, and (3) understand emergent system attributes that cannot be evaluated with short-term experiments or computer models. Waste site covers will be part of dynamic environmental systems with attributes that transcend the traits of engineered components. This report discusses results of the previously unreported preliminary studies conducted in 1983 and 1984. These results indicate that analogs could play an important role in predicting the long-term behavior of engineered waste covers. Layered exposures of glacial-flood-deposited gravels mantled with silt or sand that resemble contemporary barrier designs were examined. Bergmounds, another anomaly left by cataclysmic glacial floods, were also examined as analogs of surface gravel.

Industrial Foundations as Long-Term Owners

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Steen; Poulsen, Thomas; Børsting, Christa Winther

Short-termism has become a serious concern for corporate governance, and this has inspired a search for institutional arrangements to promote long-term decision-making. In this paper, we call attention to long-term ownership by industrial foundations, which is common in Northern Europe but little...... known in the rest of the world. We use a unique Danish data set to document that industrial foundations are long-term owners that practice long-term governance. We show that foundation ownership is highly stable compared to other ownership structures. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less...... frequently. They have conservative capital structures with low financial leverage. They score higher on an index of long-termism in finance, investment, and employment. They survive longer. Overall, our paper supports the hypothesis that corporate time horizons are influenced by ownership structures...

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

OpenAIRE

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2017-01-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

CQESTR Simulation of Soil Organic Matter Dynamics in Long-term Agricultural Experiments across USA

Science.gov (United States)

Gollany, H.; Liang, Y.; Albrecht, S.; Rickman, R.; Follett, R.; Wilhelm, W.; Novak, J.

2009-04-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) has important chemical (supplies nutrients, buffers and adsorbs harmful chemical compounds), biological (supports the growth of microorganisms and micro fauna), and physical (improves soil structure and soil tilth, stores water, and reduces surface crusting, water runoff) functions. The loss of 20 to 50% of soil organic carbon (SOC) from USA soils after converting native prairie or forest to production agriculture is well documented. Sustainable management practices for SOC is critical for maintaining soil productivity and responsible utilization of crop residues. As crop residues are targeted for additional uses (e.g., cellulosic ethanol feedstock) developing C models that predict change in SOM over time with change in management becomes increasingly important. CQESTR, pronounced "sequester," is a process-based C balance model that relates organic residue additions, crop management and soil tillage to SOM accretion or loss. The model works on daily time-steps and can perform long-term (100-year) simulations. Soil organic matter change is computed by maintaining a soil C budget for additions, such as crop residue or added amendments like manure, and organic C losses through microbial decomposition. Our objective was to simulate SOM changes in agricultural soils under a range of soil parent materials, climate and management systems using the CQESTR model. Long-term experiments (e.g. Champaign, IL, >100 yrs; Columbia, MO, >100 yrs; Lincoln, NE, 20 yrs) under various tillage practices, organic amendments, crop rotations, and crop residue removal treatments were selected for their documented history of the long-term effects of management practice on SOM dynamics. Simulated and observed values from the sites were significantly related (r2 = 94%, P management issue. CQESTR successfully simulated a substantial decline in SOM with 90% of crop residue removal for 50 years under various rotations at Columbia, MO and Champaign, IL. An increase in SOM

Long-term and short-term action-effect links and their impact on effect monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirth, Robert; Steinhauser, Robert; Janczyk, Markus; Steinhauser, Marco; Kunde, Wilfried

2018-04-23

People aim to produce effects in the environment, and according to ideomotor theory, actions are selected and executed via anticipations of their effects. Further, to ensure that an action has been successful and an effect has been realized, we must be able to monitor the consequences of our actions. However, action-effect links might vary between situations, some might apply for a majority of situations, while others might only apply to special occasions. With a combination of behavioral and electrophysiological markers, we show that monitoring of self-produced action effects interferes with other tasks, and that the length of effect monitoring is determined by both, long-term action-effect links that hold for most situations, and short-term action-effect links that emerge from a current setting. Effect monitoring is fast and frugal when these action-effect links allow for valid anticipation of action effects, but otherwise effect monitoring takes longer and delays a subsequent task. Specific influences of long-term and short-term links on the P1/N1 and P3a further allow to dissect the temporal dynamics of when these links interact for the purpose of effect monitoring. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Long-term simulations of water and isoproturon dynamics in a heterogeneous soil receiving different urban waste composts

Science.gov (United States)

Filipović, Vilim; Coquet, Yves; Pot, Valérie; Romić, Davor; Benoit, Pierre; Houot, Sabine

2016-04-01

Implementing various compost amendments and tillage practices has a large influence on soil structure and can create heterogeneities at the plot/field scale. While tillage affects soil physical properties, compost application influences also chemical properties like pesticide sorption and degradation. A long-term field experiment called "QualiAgro" (https://www6.inra.fr/qualiagro_eng/), conducted since 1998 aims at characterizing the agronomic value of urban waste composts and their environmental impacts. A modeling study was carried out using HYDRUS-2D for the 2004-2010 period to confront the effects of two different compost types combined with the presence of heterogeneities due to tillage in terms of water and isoproturon dynamics in soil. A municipal solid waste compost (MSW) and a co-compost of sewage sludge and green wastes (SGW) have been applied to experimental plots and compared to a control plot without any compost addition (CONT). Two wick lysimeters, 5 TDR probes, and 7 tensiometers were installed per plot to monitor water and isoproturon dynamics. In the ploughed layer, four zones with differing soil structure were identified: compacted clods (Δ), non-compacted soil (Γ), interfurrows (IF), and the plough pan (PP). These different soil structural zones were implemented into HYDRUS-2D according to field observation and using measured soil hydraulic properties. Lysimeter data showed (2004 -2010 period) that the CONT plot had the largest cumulative water outflow (1388 mm) compared to the MSW plot (962 mm) and SGW plot (979 mm). HYDRUS-2D was able to describe cumulative water outflow after calibration of soil hydraulic properties, for the whole 2004-2010 period with a model efficiency value of 0.99 for all three plots. Isoproturon leaching showed had the largest cumulative value in the CONT plot (21.31 μg) while similar cumulated isoproturon leachings were measured in the SGW (0.663 μg) and MSW (0.245 μg) plots. The model was able to simulate

Study on the system development for evaluating long-term alteration of hydraulic field in Near Field. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okutu, Kazuo; Morikawa, Seiji; Taguchi, Katsunori

2004-02-01

developed in order to improve their reliability. Furthermore, dynamic alteration action evaluation system consisted of bentonite and cement model was developed, and the long-term dynamic alteration action analysis was performed. In this alteration action analysis, parameters of Ca 2+ ion content of bentonite and leaching ratio of Ca from cement material were considered. The analysis result indicated that the diffusion field, on the set-up condition in this analysis, was kept in the long term. Additionally, the influence of the action of rock that was not covered in his dynamic alteration action evaluation system was arranged. 4) A coupled hydraulic - chemical - dynamical system was developed by integrating the previously developed hydraulic - chemical system and dynamical system. Several analyses were performed to support the thesis that the long term safety of the TRU waste repository is preserved. (author)

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-04

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

Short- and long-term forecast for chaotic and random systems (50 years after Lorenz's paper)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunimovich, Leonid A

2014-01-01

We briefly review a history of the impact of the famous 1963 paper by E Lorenz on hydrodynamics, physics and mathematics communities on both sides of the iron curtain. This paper was an attempt to apply the ideas and methods of dynamical systems theory to the problem of weather forecast. Its major discovery was the phenomenon of chaos in dissipative dynamical systems which makes such forecasts rather problematic, if at all possible. In this connection we present some recent results which demonstrate that both a short-term and a long-term forecast are actually possible for the most chaotic dynamical (as well as for the most random, like IID and Markov chain) systems. Moreover, there is a sharp transition between the time interval where one may use a short-term forecast and the times where a long-term forecast is applicable. Finally we discuss how these findings could be incorporated into the forecast strategy outlined in the Lorenz's paper. (invited article)

Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

Science.gov (United States)

Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

2012-01-01

Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

The Interval Slope Method for Long-Term Forecasting of Stock Price Trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun-xue Nie

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A stock price is a typical but complex type of time series data. We used the effective prediction of long-term time series data to schedule an investment strategy and obtain higher profit. Due to economic, environmental, and other factors, it is very difficult to obtain a precise long-term stock price prediction. The exponentially segmented pattern (ESP is introduced here and used to predict the fluctuation of different stock data over five future prediction intervals. The new feature of stock pricing during the subinterval, named the interval slope, can characterize fluctuations in stock price over specific periods. The cumulative distribution function (CDF of MSE was compared to those of MMSE-BC and SVR. We concluded that the interval slope developed here can capture more complex dynamics of stock price trends. The mean stock price can then be predicted over specific time intervals relatively accurately, in which multiple mean values over time intervals are used to express the time series in the long term. In this way, the prediction of long-term stock price can be more precise and prevent the development of cumulative errors.

Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas eVoss

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

Prediction of long term stability for geological disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Koide, Hitoshi; Kono, Itoshi

1998-01-01

On geological disposal of radioactive wastes, study on prediction of diastrophism has been paid many attentions, and then long term future prediction ranging from some thousands to some tends thousands years may be necessary for some target nuclides. As there are various methods in the future prediction, it is essential to use a computational dynamic procedure to conduct a quantitative prediction. However, it causes an obstacle to advancement of the prediction method that informations on deep underground have a lot of uncertain elements because of their few and indirect data. In this paper, a long term prediction procedure of diastrophism relating to geological disposal of radioactive wastes with low level but isolation terms required to some thousands years was investigated and each one example was shown on flow of the investigation and its modeling method by using the finite element method. It seems to be a key to upgrade accuracy of future diastrophism prediction how an earth fault can be analyzed. And, as the diastrophism is a long term and complex phenomenon and its prediction has many uncertain elements, it is important to judge comprehensively results of its numerical analysis geologically and on rock engineering. (G.K.)

Individual decision making in the non-purchase of long-term care insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Leslie A; Robison, Julie; Shugrue, Noreen; Keenan, Patricia; Kapp, Marshall B

2009-08-01

Although prior research suggests that economic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors influence decisions not to purchase long-term care insurance, few studies have examined the interplay among these factors in depth and from the consumer's point of view. This study was intended to further illuminate these considerations, generate hypotheses about non-purchasing decisions, and inform the design of policies that are responsive to concerns and preferences of potential purchasers. Qualitative study using 32 in-depth interviews and 6 focus groups, following a grounded theory approach. Five themes characterize decisions not to purchase long-term care insurance: (a) the determination that a policy is "too costly" reflects highly individualized and complex trade-offs not solely economic in nature, (b) non-purchasers are skeptical about the viability and integrity of private insurance companies and seek an unbiased source of information, (c) family dynamics play an important role in insurance decisions, (d) contemplating personal risk for long-term care triggers psychological responses that have implications for decision making, and (e) non-purchasers feel inadequately informed and overwhelmed by the process of deciding whether to purchase long-term care insurance. States are seeking to offset escalating Medicaid long-term care expenditures through a variety of policy mechanisms, including stimulating individual purchase of long-term care insurance. Findings suggest that economic incentives such as lowering premiums will be necessary but not sufficient to attract appropriate candidates. Attention to behavioral and psychosocial factors is essential to designing incentives that are responsive to concerns and preferences of potential purchasers.

Evaluating complementary networks of restoration plantings for landscape-scale occurrence of temporally dynamic species.

Science.gov (United States)

Ikin, Karen; Tulloch, Ayesha; Gibbons, Philip; Ansell, Dean; Seddon, Julian; Lindenmayer, David

2016-10-01

Multibillion dollar investments in land restoration make it critical that conservation goals are achieved cost-effectively. Approaches developed for systematic conservation planning offer opportunities to evaluate landscape-scale, temporally dynamic biodiversity outcomes from restoration and improve on traditional approaches that focus on the most species-rich plantings. We investigated whether it is possible to apply a complementarity-based approach to evaluate the extent to which an existing network of restoration plantings meets representation targets. Using a case study of woodland birds of conservation concern in southeastern Australia, we compared complementarity-based selections of plantings based on temporally dynamic species occurrences with selections based on static species occurrences and selections based on ranking plantings by species richness. The dynamic complementarity approach, which incorporated species occurrences over 5 years, resulted in higher species occurrences and proportion of targets met compared with the static complementarity approach, in which species occurrences were taken at a single point in time. For equivalent cost, the dynamic complementarity approach also always resulted in higher average minimum percent occurrence of species maintained through time and a higher proportion of the bird community meeting representation targets compared with the species-richness approach. Plantings selected under the complementarity approaches represented the full range of planting attributes, whereas those selected under the species-richness approach were larger in size. Our results suggest that future restoration policy should not attempt to achieve all conservation goals within individual plantings, but should instead capitalize on restoration opportunities as they arise to achieve collective value of multiple plantings across the landscape. Networks of restoration plantings with complementary attributes of age, size, vegetation structure, and

The concept of landscape education at school level with respect to the directions of the science of landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Szczęsna, Joanna

2010-01-01

School education is both a starting point for the development of various scientific disciplines (school educates future researchers) and the result of science. The landscape research is conducted within many scientific disciplines and has a long tradition. Lanscape education, which is the result of a scientific dimension, is implemented in primary school under the nature subject. Primary school education is the only level at which the geographical contents are carried out on landscape. The landscape is of interest to many disciplines: geography, architecture, social sciences and the arts. In recent years, there were many studies which contained an overview of the main strands of the science of landscape, presented the differences in the meaning of the concept and objectives of individual research disciplines. These studies have become the ground for the characterization of the concept of landscape education implemented in Polish school and its evaluation in terms of scientific achievements. A review of educational purposes, the basic content of education and achievements of students, demonstrate the influence of multiple scientific disciplines in school landscape education. The most significant share of the course content are achievements of geography disciplines, particularly: physical geography, environmental protection and landscape ecology. Other scientific fields: literature, art, psychology, sociology, and architecture do not have any impact on the school landscape education or their impact remains marginal.

Long-term collections

CERN Multimedia

Collectes à long terme

2007-01-01

The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

Long range personalized cancer treatment strategies incorporating evolutionary dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeang, Chen-Hsiang; Beckman, Robert A

2016-10-22

Current cancer precision medicine strategies match therapies to static consensus molecular properties of an individual's cancer, thus determining the next therapeutic maneuver. These strategies typically maintain a constant treatment while the cancer is not worsening. However, cancers feature complicated sub-clonal structure and dynamic evolution. We have recently shown, in a comprehensive simulation of two non-cross resistant therapies across a broad parameter space representing realistic tumors, that substantial improvement in cure rates and median survival can be obtained utilizing dynamic precision medicine strategies. These dynamic strategies explicitly consider intratumoral heterogeneity and evolutionary dynamics, including predicted future drug resistance states, and reevaluate optimal therapy every 45 days. However, the optimization is performed in single 45 day steps ("single-step optimization"). Herein we evaluate analogous strategies that think multiple therapeutic maneuvers ahead, considering potential outcomes at 5 steps ahead ("multi-step optimization") or 40 steps ahead ("adaptive long term optimization (ALTO)") when recommending the optimal therapy in each 45 day block, in simulations involving both 2 and 3 non-cross resistant therapies. We also evaluate an ALTO approach for situations where simultaneous combination therapy is not feasible ("Adaptive long term optimization: serial monotherapy only (ALTO-SMO)"). Simulations utilize populations of 764,000 and 1,700,000 virtual patients for 2 and 3 drug cases, respectively. Each virtual patient represents a unique clinical presentation including sizes of major and minor tumor subclones, growth rates, evolution rates, and drug sensitivities. While multi-step optimization and ALTO provide no significant average survival benefit, cure rates are significantly increased by ALTO. Furthermore, in the subset of individual virtual patients demonstrating clinically significant difference in outcome between

Landscape sensitivity in a dynamic environment

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jiun-Chuan; Jen, Chia-Horn

2010-05-01

Landscape sensitivity at different scales and topics is presented in this study. Methodological approach composed most of this paper. According to the environmental records in the south eastern Asia, the environment change is highly related with five factors, such as scale of influence area, background of environment characters, magnitude and frequency of events, thresholds of occurring hazards and influence by time factor. This paper tries to demonstrate above five points from historical and present data. It is found that landscape sensitivity is highly related to the degree of vulnerability of the land and the processes which put on the ground including human activities. The scale of sensitivity and evaluation of sensitivities is demonstrated in this paper by the data around east Asia. The methods of classification are mainly from the analysis of environmental data and the records of hazards. From the trend of rainfall records, rainfall intensity and change of temperature, the magnitude and frequency of earthquake, dust storm, days of draught, number of hazards, there are many coincidence on these factors with landscape sensitivities. In conclusion, the landscape sensitivities could be classified as four groups: physical stable, physical unstable, unstable, extremely unstable. This paper explain the difference.

Long-term modeling of the forest-grassland ecotone in the French Alps: implications for land management and conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Bradley Z; Renaud, Julien; Biron, Pierre Eymard; Choler, Philippe

2014-07-01

Understanding decadal-scale land-cover changes has the potential to inform current conservation policies. European mountain landscapes that include numerous protected areas provide a unique opportunity to weigh the long-term influences of land-use practices and climate on forest-grassland ecotone dynamics. Aerial photographs from four dates (1948, 1978, 1993, and 2009) were used to quantify the extent of forest and grassland cover at 5-m resolution across a 150-km2 area in a protected area of the southwestern French Alps. The study area included a grazed zone and a nongrazed zone that was abandoned during the 1970s. We estimated time series of a forestation index (FI) and analyzed the effects of elevation and grazing on FI using a hierarchical linear mixed effect model. Forest extent (composed primarily of mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) expanded from 50.6 km2 in 1948 to 85.5 km2 in 2009, i.e., a 23% increase in relative cover at the expense of grassland communities. Over the sixty-year period, the treeline rose by 118 m, from 1564 to 1682 m. Rapid forest expansion within the nongrazed zone followed the cessation of logging activities and was likely accelerated by climate warming during the 1980s. Within the grazed zone, the maintained presence of sheep did not fully counteract mountain pine expansion and led to highly contrasting rates of land-cover change based on the location of shepherds' cabins and water sources. Projections of FI for 2030 showed remnant patches of intensively used grasslands interspersed in a densely forested matrix. Our analysis of mountain land-cover dynamics provided strong evidence for forest encroachment into grassland habitat despite consistent grazing pressure. This pattern may be attributed to the disappearance of traditional land-use practices such as shrub burning and removal. Our findings prompt land managers to reconsider their initial conservation priority (i.e., the protection of a renowned mountain pine forest) and to implement

A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dijkman, Jos

2007-01-01

.... The project was aimed at identifying options for the long-term reduction of flood risks and landscape stabilization in Planning Areas I and 2 in Louisiana, in the framework of the Louisiana Coastal...

The sustainable management of the landscape

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-David Gerber

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Le paysage est de plus en plus perçu comme une ressource. À ce titre, il est nécessaire de trouver des instruments juridiques, politiques ou économiques susceptibles de gérer cette « ressource-paysage » sur le long terme. Le gouvernement suisse a introduit récemment l’instrument des parcs naturels régionaux, organisés selon le modèle français, dans sa législation de protection de la nature et du paysage. Une mise en regard des nouveaux parcs avec des structures de gestion beaucoup plus anciennes, les bourgeoisies et les corporations, permet de mettre en évidence les forces et les faiblesses de chacun de ces instruments dans leur contribution à résoudre les rivalités d’usage entre acteurs utilisant ou influençant la ressource paysage. Cette comparaison permet de formuler des recommandations pratiques concernant la gestion de cette ressource.The landscape is increasingly perceived as a resource. For this reason, it is necessary to find legal, political and economic instruments that will succeed in managing this "resource landscape" in the long term. The Swiss government recently introduced the instrument of regional nature parks into the legislation governing nature and landscape preservation; the proposed parks are organized on the basis of the French model. The examination of the new parks from the perspective of much older management structures, i.e. the civic municipalities (bourgeoisies and corporations, makes it possible to demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of each of these instruments in their contribution to the resolution of use rivalries between actors who use or influence the resource landscape. This comparison also enables the formulation of practical recommendations regarding the management of this resource.

Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

Science.gov (United States)

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

2015-01-01

Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most

Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine S. Jarnevich

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion

Long-term habitat changes in a protected area: Implications for herpetofauna habitat management and restoration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chantel E Markle

Full Text Available Point Pelee National Park, located at the southern-most tip of Canada's mainland, historically supported a large number of herpetofauna species; however, despite nearly a century of protection, six snake and five amphibian species have disappeared, and remaining species-at-risk populations are thought to be in decline. We hypothesized that long-term changes in availability and distribution of critical habitat types may have contributed to the disappearance of herpetofauna. To track habitat changes we used aerial image data spanning 85 years (1931-2015 and manually digitized and classified image data using a standardized framework. Change-detection analyses were used to evaluate the relative importance of proportionate loss and fragmentation of 17 habitat types. Marsh habitat diversity and aquatic connectivity has declined since 1931. The marsh matrix transitioned from a graminoid and forb shallow marsh interspersed with water to a cattail dominated marsh, altering critical breeding, foraging, and overwintering habitat. Reduced diversity of marsh habitats appears to be linked to the expansion of invasive Phragmites australis, which invaded prior to 2000. Loss of open habitats such as savanna and meadow has reduced availability of high quality thermoregulation habitat for reptiles. Restoration of the northwestern region and tip of Point Pelee National Park to a mixed landscape of shallow wetlands (cattail, graminoid, forb, open water and eradication of dense Phragmites stands should improve habitat diversity. Our results suggest that long-term landscape changes resulting from habitat succession and invasive species can negatively affect habitat suitability for herpetofauna and protection of land alone does not necessarily equate to protection of sensitive herpetofauna.

Long-term habitat changes in a protected area: Implications for herpetofauna habitat management and restoration.

Science.gov (United States)

Markle, Chantel E; Chow-Fraser, Gillian; Chow-Fraser, Patricia

2018-01-01

Point Pelee National Park, located at the southern-most tip of Canada's mainland, historically supported a large number of herpetofauna species; however, despite nearly a century of protection, six snake and five amphibian species have disappeared, and remaining species-at-risk populations are thought to be in decline. We hypothesized that long-term changes in availability and distribution of critical habitat types may have contributed to the disappearance of herpetofauna. To track habitat changes we used aerial image data spanning 85 years (1931-2015) and manually digitized and classified image data using a standardized framework. Change-detection analyses were used to evaluate the relative importance of proportionate loss and fragmentation of 17 habitat types. Marsh habitat diversity and aquatic connectivity has declined since 1931. The marsh matrix transitioned from a graminoid and forb shallow marsh interspersed with water to a cattail dominated marsh, altering critical breeding, foraging, and overwintering habitat. Reduced diversity of marsh habitats appears to be linked to the expansion of invasive Phragmites australis, which invaded prior to 2000. Loss of open habitats such as savanna and meadow has reduced availability of high quality thermoregulation habitat for reptiles. Restoration of the northwestern region and tip of Point Pelee National Park to a mixed landscape of shallow wetlands (cattail, graminoid, forb, open water) and eradication of dense Phragmites stands should improve habitat diversity. Our results suggest that long-term landscape changes resulting from habitat succession and invasive species can negatively affect habitat suitability for herpetofauna and protection of land alone does not necessarily equate to protection of sensitive herpetofauna.

Compensation for PKMζ in long-term potentiation and spatial long-term memory in mutant mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsokas, Panayiotis; Hsieh, Changchi; Yao, Yudong; Lesburguères, Edith; Wallace, Emma Jane Claire; Tcherepanov, Andrew; Jothianandan, Desingarao; Hartley, Benjamin Rush; Pan, Ling; Rivard, Bruno; Farese, Robert V; Sajan, Mini P; Bergold, Peter John; Hernández, Alejandro Iván; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

2016-05-17

PKMζ is a persistently active PKC isoform proposed to maintain late-LTP and long-term memory. But late-LTP and memory are maintained without PKMζ in PKMζ-null mice. Two hypotheses can account for these findings. First, PKMζ is unimportant for LTP or memory. Second, PKMζ is essential for late-LTP and long-term memory in wild-type mice, and PKMζ-null mice recruit compensatory mechanisms. We find that whereas PKMζ persistently increases in LTP maintenance in wild-type mice, PKCι/λ, a gene-product closely related to PKMζ, persistently increases in LTP maintenance in PKMζ-null mice. Using a pharmacogenetic approach, we find PKMζ-antisense in hippocampus blocks late-LTP and spatial long-term memory in wild-type mice, but not in PKMζ-null mice without the target mRNA. Conversely, a PKCι/λ-antagonist disrupts late-LTP and spatial memory in PKMζ-null mice but not in wild-type mice. Thus, whereas PKMζ is essential for wild-type LTP and long-term memory, persistent PKCι/λ activation compensates for PKMζ loss in PKMζ-null mice.

Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

2012-04-15

Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

The coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Z; Feldman, M W

2013-05-01

The evolution of social traits may not only depend on but also change the social structure of the population. In particular, the evolution of pairwise cooperation, such as biparental care, depends on the pair-matching distribution of the population, and the latter often emerges as a collective outcome of individual pair-bonding traits, which are also under selection. Here, we develop an analytical model and individual-based simulations to study the coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation in parental care, where partners play a Snowdrift game in each breeding season. We illustrate that long-term pair bonds may coevolve with cooperation when bonding cost is below a threshold. As long-term pair bonds lead to assortative interactions through pair-matching dynamics, they may promote the prevalence of cooperation. In addition to the pay-off matrix of a single game, the evolutionarily stable equilibrium also depends on bonding cost and accidental divorce rate, and it is determined by a form of balancing selection because the benefit from pair-bond maintenance diminishes as the frequency of cooperators increases. Our findings highlight the importance of ecological factors affecting social bonding cost and stability in understanding the coevolution of social behaviour and social structures, which may lead to the diversity of biological social systems. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Coupling movement and landscape ecology for animal conservation in production landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Doherty, Tim S; Driscoll, Don A

2018-01-10

Habitat conversion in production landscapes is among the greatest threats to biodiversity, not least because it can disrupt animal movement. Using the movement ecology framework, we review animal movement in production landscapes, including areas managed for agriculture and forestry. We consider internal and external drivers of altered animal movement and how this affects navigation and motion capacities and population dynamics. Conventional management approaches in fragmented landscapes focus on promoting connectivity using structural changes in the landscape. However, a movement ecology perspective emphasizes that manipulating the internal motivations or navigation capacity of animals represents untapped opportunities to improve movement and the effectiveness of structural connectivity investments. Integrating movement and landscape ecology opens new opportunities for conservation management in production landscapes. © 2018 The Authors.

Dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in three Mediterranean woody species following long-term experimental drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosas, Teresa; Galiano, Lucía; Ogaya, Romà; Peñuelas, Josep; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

2013-01-01

Stored non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) have been proposed as a key determinant of drought resistance in plants. However, the evidence for this role is controversial, as it comes mostly from observational, short-term studies. Here, we take advantage of a long-term experimental throughfall reduction to elucidate the response of NSC to increased drought 14 years after the beginning of the treatment in three Mediterranean resprouter trees (Quercus ilex L., Arbutus unedo L. and Phillyrea latifolia L.). In addition, we selected 20 Q. ilex individuals outside the experimental plots to directly assess the relationship between defoliation and NSC at the individual level. We measured the seasonal course of NSC concentrations in leaves, branches and lignotuber in late winter, late spring, summer, and autumn 2012. Total concentrations of NSC were highest in the lignotuber for all species. In the long-term drought experiment we found significant depletion in concentrations of total NSC in treatment plots only in the lignotuber of A. unedo. At the same time, A. unedo was the only species showing a significant reduction in BAI under the drought treatment during the 14 years of the experiment. By contrast, Q. ilex just reduced stem growth only during the first 4 years of treatment and P. latifolia remained unaffected over the whole study period. However, we found a clear association between the concentrations of NSC and defoliation in Q. ilex individuals sampled outside the experimental plots, with lower total concentrations of NSC and lower proportion of starch in defoliated individuals. Taken together, our results suggest that stabilizing processes, probably at the stand level, may have been operating in the long-term to mitigate any impact of drought on NSC levels, and highlight the necessity to incorporate long-term experimental studies of plant responses to drought.

Dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in three Mediterranean woody species following long-term experimental drought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teresa eRosas

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Stored non-structural carbohydrates (NSC have been proposed as a key determinant of drought resistance in plants. However, the evidence for this role is controversial, as it comes mostly from observational, short-term studies. Here, we take advantage of a long-term experimental throughfall reduction to elucidate the response of NSC to increased drought 14 years after the beginning of the treatment in three Mediterranean woody species (Quercus ilex L., Arbutus unedo L. and Phillyrea latifolia L.. In addition, we selected 20 Q. ilex individuals outside the experimental plots to directly assess the relationship between defoliation and NSC at the individual level. We measured the seasonal course of NSC concentrations in leaves, branches and lignotuber in late winter, late spring, summer and autumn 2012. Total concentrations of NSC were highest in the lignotuber for all species. In the long-term drought experiment we found significant depletion in concentrations of total NSC in treatment plots only in the lignotuber of A. unedo. At the same time, A. unedo was the only species showing a significant reduction in BAI under the drought treatment during the 14 years of the experiment. By contrast, Q. ilex just reduced stem growth only during the first 4 years of treatment and P. latifolia remained unaffected over the whole study period. However, we found a clear association between the concentrations of NSC and defoliation in Q. ilex individuals sampled outside the experimental plots, with lower total concentrations of NSC and lower proportion of starch in defoliated individuals. Taken together, our results suggest that stabilizing processes, probably at the stand level, may have been operating in the long-term to mitigate any impact of drought on NSC levels, and highlight the necessity to incorporate long-term experimental studies of plant responses to drought.

Characterizing European cultural landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tieskens, Koen F.; Schulp, Catharina J E; Levers, Christian

2017-01-01

intensification and land abandonment. To prevent the loss of cultural landscapes, knowledge on the location of different types of cultural landscapes is needed. In this paper, we present a characterization of European cultural landscapes based on the prevalence of three key dimensions of cultural landscapes......Almost all rural areas in Europe have been shaped or altered by humans and can be considered cultural landscapes, many of which now are considered to entail valuable cultural heritage. Current dynamics in land management have put cultural landscapes under a huge pressure of agricultural...... the three dimensions into a continuous “cultural landscape index” that allows for a characterization of Europe's rural landscapes. The characterization identifies hotspots of cultural landscapes, where all three dimensions are present, such as in the Mediterranean. On the other hand, Eastern and Northern...

Stability, Bistability, and Critical Thresholds in Fire-prone Forested Landscapes: How Frequency and Intensity of Disturbance Interact and Influence Forest Cover

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, A. D.

2015-12-01

Many aspects of disturbance processes can have large impacts on the composition of plant communities, and associated changes in land cover type in turn have biogeochemical feedbacks to climate. In particular, changes to disturbance regimes can potentially change the number and stability of equilibrial states, and plant community states can differ dramatically in their carbon (C) dynamics, energy balance, and hydrology. Using the Klamath region of northern California as a model system, we present a theoretical analysis of how changes to climate and associated fire dynamics can disrupt high-carbon, long-lived conifer forests and replace them with shrub-chaparral communities that have much lower biomass and are more pyrogenic. Specifically, we develop a tractable model of plant community dynamics, structured by size class, life-history traits, lottery-type competition, and species-specific responses to disturbance. We assess the stability of different states in terms of disturbance frequency and intensity, and quantitatively partition long-term low-density population growth rates into mechanisms that influence critical transitions from stable to bistable behavior. Our findings show how different aspects of disturbance act and interact to control competitive outcomes and stable states, hence ecosystem-atmosphere C exchange. Forests tend to dominate in low frequency and intensity regimes, while shrubs dominate at high fire frequency and intensity. In other regimes, the system is bistable, and the fate of the system depends both on initial conditions and random chance. Importantly, the system can cross a critical threshold where hysteresis prevents easy return to the prior forested state. We conclude that changes in disturbance-recovery dynamics driven by projected climate change can shift this system away from forest dominated in the direction of shrub-dominated landscape. This will result in a large net C release from the landscape, and alter biophysical ecosystem

Sexuality and Physical Intimacy in Long Term Care: Sexuality, long term care, capacity assessment

OpenAIRE

Lichtenberg, Peter A.

2014-01-01

Sexuality and sexual needs in older adults remains a neglected area of clinical intervention, particularly so in long term care settings. Because older adults in medical rehabilitation and long term care beds present with significant frailties, and often significant neurocognitive disorders it makes it difficult for occupational therapists and other staff to evaluate the capacity of an older adult resident to participate in sexual relationships. The current paper reviews the current literatur...

Abrupt vegetation transitions characterise long-term Amazonian peatland development

Science.gov (United States)

Roucoux, K. H.; Baker, T. R.; Gosling, W. D.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Jones, T. D.; Lahteenoja, O.; Lawson, I. T.

2012-04-01

Recent investigations of wetlands in western Amazonia have revealed the presence of extensive peatlands with peat deposits of up to 8 m-thick developing under a variety of vegetation types (Lähteenoja et al. 2012). Estimated to cover 150,000 km2 (Schulman et al. 1999), these peatlands make a valuable contribution to landscape and biological diversity and represent globally important carbon stores. In order to understand the processes leading to peat formation, and the sensitivity of these environments to future climatic change, it is necessary to understand their long-term history. The extent to which peatland vegetation changes over time, the stability of particular communities, the controls on transitions between vegetation types and how these factors relate to the accumulation of organic matter are not yet known. We report the first attempt to establish the long-term (millennial scale) vegetation history of a recently-described peatland site: Quistococha, a palm swamp, or aguajal, close to Iquitos in northern Peru. The vegetation is dominated by Mauritia flexuosa and Mauritiella armata and occupies a basin which is thought to be an abandoned channel of the River Amazon. We obtained a 4 m-long peat sequence from the deepest part of the basin. AMS-radiocarbon dating yielded a maximum age of 2,212 cal yr BP for the base of the peat, giving an average accumulation rate of 18 cm per century. Below the peat are 2 m of uniform, largely inorganic pale grey clays of lacustrine origin, which are underlain by an unknown thickness of inorganic sandy-silty clay of fluvial origin. Pollen analysis, carried out at c. 88-year intervals, shows the last 2,212 years to be characterised by the development of at least four distinct vegetation communities, with peat accumulating throughout. The main phases were: (1) Formation of Cyperaceae (sedge) fen coincident with peat initiation; (2) A short-lived phase of local Mauritia/Mauritiella development; (3) Development of mixed wet

Differences in health status between long-term and short-term benzodiazepine users.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zandstra, S.M.; Furer, J.W.; Lisdonk, E.H. van de; Bor, J.H.J.; Zitman, F.G.; Weel, C. van

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: Despite generally accepted advice to keep treatment short, benzodiazepines are often prescibed for more than six months. Prevention of long-term benzodiazepine use could be facilitated by the utilisation of risk indicators for long-term use. However, the characteristics of long-term

Climate change and population dynamics at the tree line: the importance of long-term studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anfodillo T

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Temperature-limited ecosystems are believed to be extremely sensitive to global warming and the upward treeline migration is one of the most relevant phenomenon. Long term monitoring of demographic trends appears essential in order to understand possible effects of higher temperatures on cold ecosystems. Long-term monitoring of natality and mortality of a Pinus sylvestris population in the Swedish Scandes from 1973 to 2005 (Kullman 2007 showed that number of trees increased in the study plots due to higher natality rate, especially in the last decade. This reverses a natural trend of treeline decline and recession occurred in the past.

Responding to Landscape Change: Stakeholder Participation and Social Capital in Five European Landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanasis Kizos

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The concept of landscape has been increasingly used, in the last decades, in policy and land use planning, both in regard to so-called “special” and to “ordinary” or “everyday” landscapes. This has raised the importance of local and public participation in all issues that refer to landscapes and the definition of the groups that “have a stake” in the landscape. In this paper, we provide insights into how stakeholders perceive the dynamics of local processes of landscape change (and continuity and which processes of landscape change they perceive as important, in positive and negative ways, from five communities within the European Union. These landscapes involve different landscape issues “at stake”, different national and local planning and decision-making traditions and practices, and varying degrees of engagement. The understanding of these complexities and the unraveling of the insights is done through the concept of social capital and its different forms. We report on three series of workshops that have been organized to discuss landscape issues and approaches or ideas for landscape management. We witnessed interactions between the different stakeholders and gained insights into how social capital affects landscape change. We found that despite differences, similarities emerged concerning the interplay between “expert” and “local” knowledge and between “insideness” and “outsideness”. Social capital plays an important part, as it provides the template for personal and collective evaluation of landscape changes, who should manage these changes and how they should be managed. These findings are important to develop in-depth insights on dynamics and values of cultural landscapes and visions for re-coupling social and ecological components in cultural landscapes and translate them into policy and management options.

[Dynamic changes of land desertification landscape pattern in agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of northern Shaanxi].

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Ke-Li; Chang, Qing-Rui

2007-09-01

By using the 1986, 1993 and 2003 Landsat TM images and with the help of GIS, the dynamic changes of land desertification landscape pattern in agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of northern Shaanxi in 1986-2003 were analyzed. The results showed that in the past 17 years, the desertification area in the zone decreased by 206,655.2 hm2, with the patches in landscape structure reduced and fragmentation abated. Fortunately, the desertification degree decreased obviously, and moderate and light desertification took the leading position. From 1986 to 2003, the spatial centroid of desertification landscape patches expanded southwestward and northeastward, giving serious threat to the ecological safety of the southeast and northeast loess gully and hilly areas.

Dynamics of sylvatic Chagas disease vectors in coastal Ecuador is driven by changes in land cover.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario J Grijalva

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics.The study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1 sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71% and 2 densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts.We propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better understanding of the dynamics of such socio

A demographic history of a population of howler monkeys (Alouatta palliata living in a fragmented landscape in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurgi Cristóbal Azkarate

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Long-term field studies are critical for our understanding of animal life history and the processes driving changes in demography. Here, we present long-term demographic data for the northernmost population of mantled howler monkeys (Alouatta palliata residing in a highly anthropogenically fragmented landscape in Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. We carried out 454 monthly group visits to 10 groups of mantled howler monkeys between 2000 and 2011. The population remained relatively stable over the 11-year study period, with an overall increase in the total number of individuals. Birth rates and inter-birth intervals were comparable to those of howler monkeys at non-fragmented sites, suggesting that living in a fragmented landscape did not affect the reproductive output of our study population. Moreover, despite the landscape, dispersal events were commonplace, including many secondary dispersals (individuals emigrating from groups that they had previously immigrated into. Finally, we found a marked effect of seasonality on the dynamics of our study population. In particular, the period of lowest temperatures and resource scarcity between November and March was associated with higher mortality and reproductive inhibition, while the period of resource abundance between April and May was associated with the majority of conceptions and weaning of offspring. This, in turn, could be influencing dispersal patterns in our study area, as male howler monkeys seem to time some of their immigrations into new groups to coincide with the start of the period of higher fertility, while females preferentially joined new groups several months before the onset of this period. These data have important implications for the conservation and management of howler monkeys in fragmented landscapes, as well as for our understanding of the effect of seasonality over howler monkey dispersal, reproduction and survival.

Fine-Scale Recombination Maps of Fungal Plant Pathogens Reveal Dynamic Recombination Landscapes and Intragenic Hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Stukenbrock, Eva H; Dutheil, Julien Y

2018-03-01

Meiotic recombination is an important driver of evolution. Variability in the intensity of recombination across chromosomes can affect sequence composition, nucleotide variation, and rates of adaptation. In many organisms, recombination events are concentrated within short segments termed recombination hotspots. The variation in recombination rate and positions of recombination hotspot can be studied using population genomics data and statistical methods. In this study, we conducted population genomics analyses to address the evolution of recombination in two closely related fungal plant pathogens: the prominent wheat pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici and a sister species infecting wild grasses Z. ardabiliae We specifically addressed whether recombination landscapes, including hotspot positions, are conserved in the two recently diverged species and if recombination contributes to rapid evolution of pathogenicity traits. We conducted a detailed simulation analysis to assess the performance of methods of recombination rate estimation based on patterns of linkage disequilibrium, in particular in the context of high nucleotide diversity. Our analyses reveal overall high recombination rates, a lack of suppressed recombination in centromeres, and significantly lower recombination rates on chromosomes that are known to be accessory. The comparison of the recombination landscapes of the two species reveals a strong correlation of recombination rate at the megabase scale, but little correlation at smaller scales. The recombination landscapes in both pathogen species are dominated by frequent recombination hotspots across the genome including coding regions, suggesting a strong impact of recombination on gene evolution. A significant but small fraction of these hotspots colocalize between the two species, suggesting that hotspot dynamics contribute to the overall pattern of fast evolving recombination in these species. Copyright © 2018 Stukenbrock and Dutheil.

Sources to the landscape - detailed spatiotemporal analysis of 200 years Danish landscape dynamics using unexploited historical maps and aerial photos

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenningsen, Stig Roar; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Dupont, Henrik

to declassification of military maps and aerial photos from the cold war, only relatively few sources have been made available to researchers due to lacking efforts in digitalization and related services. And even though the digitizing of cartographic material has been accelerated, the digitally available materials...... or to the commercial photo series from the last 20 years. This poster outlines a new research project focusing on the potential of unexploited cartographic sources for detailed analysis of the dynamic of the Danish landscape between 1800 – 2000. The project draws on cartographic sources available in Danish archives...... of material in landscape change studies giving a high temporal and spatial resolution. The project also deals with the opportunity and constrain of comparing different cartographic sources with diverse purpose and time of production, e.g. different scale and quality of aerial photos or the difference between...

Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

2018-12-01

An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

2017-06-01

Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n  = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n  = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n  = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n  = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n  = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after

Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

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Paul Smolen

Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

Long-term prisoner in prison isolation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karolina Grudzińska

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Long-term prisoner belongs to a particular category of people who are imprisoned in prisons. On the one hand in this group are often heavily demoralized people who committed the most serious crimes, on the other hand it is a group of prisoners, who should be well thought out and programmed the impact of rehabilitation. The situation of man trapped for years poses in a complicated situation not only the prisoners, but also the entire prison staff. They have to take care of the fact that the prison isolation did not cause the state in which convicts form itself in learned helplessness and lack of skills for self-planning and decision-making. In addition, planning the rehabilitation impact of long-term prisoners should not be forgotten that these prisoners in the short or the long term will return to the libertarian environment therefore, should prevent any negative effects of long-term imprisonment. This article presents the main issues related to the execution of imprisonment against long-term prisoners. It is an attempt to systematize the knowledge of this category of people living in prison isolation.

Hilbert-Huang transform analysis of long-term solar magnetic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Linhua

2018-04-01

Astronomical time series analysis is one of the hottest and most important problems, and becomes the suitable way to deal with the underlying dynamical behavior of the considered nonlinear systems. The quasi-periodic analysis of solar magnetic activity has been carried out by various authors during the past fifty years. In this work, the novel Hilbert-Huang transform approach is applied to investigate the yearly numbers of polar faculae in the time interval from 1705 to 1999. The detected periodicities can be allocated to three components: the first one is the short-term variations with periods smaller than 11 years, the second one is the mid- term variations with classical periods from 11 years to 50 years, and the last one is the long-term variations with periods larger than 50 years. The analysis results improve our knowledge on the quasi-periodic variations of solar magnetic activity and could be provided valuable constraints for solar dynamo theory. Furthermore, our analysis results could be useful for understanding the long-term variations of solar magnetic activity, providing crucial information to describe and forecast solar magnetic activity indicators.

From Co-Management to Landscape Governance: Whither Ghana’s Modified Taungya System?

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Mirjam A. F. Ros-Tonen

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Natural resource management literature has documented three paradigm shifts over the past decade: from co-management to adaptive co-management and adaptive governance respectively and, more recently, towards landscape governance. The latter is conceived as a governance approach towards negotiated land use at the landscape level to deal with global challenges such as food insecurity, climate change and biodiversity loss. There is not a lot of clarity about how co-management systems could actually evolve into landscape governance. This paper aims to address the gap by exploring how a stalled co-management system for the reforestation of degraded forest areas—the modified taungya system (MTS in Ghana—could be revitalised and redesigned as a landscape approach. Drawing on case studies and expert consultation, the performance of the national MTS and the MTS under the Community Forestry Management Project is reviewed with regard to five principles (integrated approach, multi-stakeholder negotiation, polycentric governance, continual learning and adaptive capacity and three enabling conditions (social capital, bridging organisations and long-term funding distilled from the literature. The authors conclude that some of these principles and conditions were met under the Community Forestry Management Project, but that continual learning, transcending jurisdictional boundaries, developing adaptive capacity, and long-term funding and benefits still pose challenges.

Competitive short-term and long-term memory processes in spatial habituation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanderson, David J; Bannerman, David M

2011-04-01

Exposure to a spatial location leads to habituation of exploration such that, in a novelty preference test, rodents subsequently prefer exploring a novel location to the familiar location. According to Wagner's (1981) theory of memory, short-term and long-term habituation are caused by separate and sometimes opponent processes. In the present study, this dual-process account of memory was tested. Mice received a series of exposure training trials to a location before receiving a novelty preference test. The novelty preference was greater when tested after a short, rather than a long, interval. In contrast, the novelty preference was weaker when exposure training trials were separated by a short, rather than a long interval. Furthermore, it was found that long-term habituation was determined by the independent effects of the amount of exposure training and the number of exposure training trials when factors such as the intertrial interval and the cumulative intertrial interval were controlled. A final experiment demonstrated that a long-term reduction of exploration could be caused by a negative priming effect due to associations formed during exploration. These results provide evidence against a single-process account of habituation and suggest that spatial habituation is determined by both short-term, recency-based memory and long-term, incrementally strengthened memory.

Long-term avoidance memory formation is associated with a transient increase in mushroom body synaptic complexes in leaf-cutting ants

OpenAIRE

Falibene, Agustina; Roces, Flavio; R?ssler, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

Long-term behavioral changes related to learning and experience have been shown to be associated with structural remodeling in the brain. Leaf-cutting ants learn to avoid previously preferred plants after they have proved harmful for their symbiotic fungus, a process that involves long-term olfactory memory. We studied the dynamics of brain microarchitectural changes after long-term olfactory memory formation following avoidance learning in Acromyrmex ambiguus. After performing experiments to...

Aeolian Landscape Change in West Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Heindel, Ruth Chaves

In the Arctic, aeolian processes can be important drivers of landscape change. Soil deflation, the removal of fine-grained sediment by wind, is one aeolian process that has had a profound impact in the Arctic. While soil deflation has been well studied in Iceland, our understanding of aeolian processes across the rest of the Arctic remains limited. Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland, provides an opportunity to study the mechanisms and impacts of soil deflation without direct anthropogenic influence. In Kangerlussuaq, strong katabatic winds have resulted in distinct erosional landforms, here referred to as deflation patches, that are largely devoid of vascular plants and are dominated by biological soil crusts. This dissertation considers the geomorphic and ecological impacts of soil deflation through an interdisciplinary framework. I show that deflation patches are a critical component of the Kangerlussuaq ecosystem, accounting for 22% of the terrestrial landscape and impacting vegetation dynamics by providing habitat for graminoid, herbaceous, and lichen species. Deflation patches formed roughly 230-800 years ago, during a period of cold, dry, and windy climate conditions. Deflation patches expand across the landscape when the active margin, or scarp, becomes undercut and collapses. I estimate that rates of patch expansion are roughly 2.5 cm yr-1, and that geomorphic change can be detected even over the short time period of two years. I suggest that an erosional threshold exists because climate conditions required for initial deflation-patch formation are harsher than those required for continued patch expansion. The future trajectory of deflation patches depends on the role of the biological soil crust as either a successional facilitator or a long-term landscape cover, as well as future climate conditions. While the biological soil crusts slightly enrich soil fertility over time, they decrease soil moisture and create an impenetrable soil surface, which may inhibit

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

Science.gov (United States)

Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

2007-01-01

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introducing litter quality to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS: Effects on short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Portner, Hanspeter; Wolf, Annett; Rühr, Nadine; Bugmann, Harald

2010-05-01

Many biogeochemical models have been applied to study the response of the carbon cycle to changes in climate, whereby the process of carbon uptake (photosynthesis) has usually gained more attention than the equally important process of carbon release by respiration. The decomposition of soil organic matter is driven by a combination of factors like soil temperature, soil moisture and litter quality. We have introduced dependence on litter substrate quality to heterotrophic soil respiration in the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS [Smith et al.(2001)]. We were interested in differences in model projections before and after the inclusion of the dependency both in respect to short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics. The standard implementation of heterotrophic soil respiration in LPJ-GUESS is a simple carbon three-pool model whose decay rates are dependent on soil temperature and soil moisture. We have added dependence on litter quality by coupling LPJ-GUESS to the soil carbon model Yasso07 [Tuomi et al.(2008)]. The Yasso07 model is based on an extensive number of measurements of litter decomposition of forest soils. Apart from the dependence on soil temperature and soil moisture, the Yasso07 model uses carbon soil pools representing different substrate qualities: acid hydrolyzable, water soluble, ethanol soluble, lignin compounds and humus. Additionally Yasso07 differentiates between woody and non-woody litter. In contrary to the reference implementation of LPJ-GUESS, in the new model implementation, the litter now is divided according to its specific quality and added to the corresponding soil carbon pool. The litter quality thereby differs between litter source (leaves, roots, stems) and plant functional type (broadleaved, needleleaved, grass). The two contrasting model implementations were compared and validated at one specific CarboEuropeIP site (Lägern, Switzerland) and on a broader scale all over Switzerland. Our focus lay on the soil respiration for the years 2006

Human cortical EEG rhythms during long-term episodic memory task. A high-resolution EEG study of the HERA model.

Science.gov (United States)

Babiloni, Claudio; Babiloni, Fabio; Carducci, Filippo; Cappa, Stefano; Cincotti, Febo; Del Percio, Claudio; Miniussi, Carlo; Moretti, Davide Vito; Pasqualetti, Patrizio; Rossi, Simone; Sosta, Katiuscia; Rossini, Paolo Maria

2004-04-01

Many recent neuroimaging studies of episodic memory have indicated an asymmetry in prefrontal involvement, with the left prefrontal cortex more involved than the right in encoding, the right more than the left in retrieval (hemispheric encoding and retrieval asymmetry, or HERA model). In this electroencephalographic (EEG) high-resolution study, we studied brain rhythmicity during a visual episodic memory (recognition) task. The theta (4-6 Hz), alpha (6-12 Hz) and gamma (28-48 Hz) oscillations were investigated during a visuospatial long-term episodic memory task including an encoding (ENC) and retrieval (RET) phases. During the ENC phase, 25 figures representing interiors of buildings ("indoor") were randomly intermingled with 25 figures representing landscapes ("landscapes"). Subject's response was given at left ("indoor") or right ("landscapes") mouse button. During the RET phase (1 h later), 25 figures representing previously presented "indoor" pictures ("tests") were randomly intermingled with 25 figures representing novel "indoor" ("distractors"). Again, a mouse response was required. Theta and alpha EEG results showed no change of frontal rhythmicity. In contrast, the HERA prediction of asymmetry was fitted only by EEG gamma responses, but only in the posterior parietal areas. The ENC phase was associated with gamma EEG oscillations over left parietal cortex. Afterward, the RET phase was associated with gamma EEG oscillations predominantly over right parietal cortex. The predicted HERA asymmetry was thus observed in an unexpected location. This discrepancy may be due to the differential sensitivity of neuroimaging methods to selected components of cognitive processing. The strict relation between gamma response and perception suggests that retrieval processes of long-term memory deeply impinged upon sensory representation of the stored material.

The effect of long-term changes in plant inputs on soil carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, K.; Li, Z.; Torn, M. S.

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively-cycling terrestrial reservoir of C and an integral component of thriving natural and managed ecosystems. C input interventions (e.g., litter removal or organic amendments) are common in managed landscapes and present an important decision for maintaining healthy soils in sustainable agriculture and forestry. Furthermore, climate and land-cover change can also affect the amount of plant C inputs that enter the soil through changes in plant productivity, allocation, and rooting depth. Yet, the processes that dictate the response of SOC to such changes in C inputs are poorly understood and inadequately represented in predictive models. Long-term litter manipulations are an invaluable resource for exploring key controls of SOC storage and validating model representations. Here we explore the response of SOC to long-term changes in plant C inputs across a range of biomes and soil types. We synthesize and analyze data from long-term litter manipulation field experiments, and focus our meta-analysis on changes to total SOC stocks, microbial biomass carbon, and mineral-associated (`protected') carbon pools and explore the relative contribution of above- versus below-ground C inputs. Our cross-site data comparison reveals that divergent SOC responses are observed between forest sites, particularly for treatments that increase C inputs to the soil. We explore trends among key variables (e.g., microbial biomass to SOC ratios) that inform soil C model representations. The assembled dataset is an important benchmark for evaluating process-based hypotheses and validating divergent model formulations.

Long term liquidity analysis of the firm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaroslav Gonos

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Liquidity control is a very difficult and important function. If the business is not liquid in the long term, it is under threatof bankruptcy, and on the other hand surplus of the cash in hand threaten its future efficiency, because the cash in hand is a sourceof only limited profitability. Long term liquidity is related to the ability of the short term and long term liabilities payment. Articleis trying to point out to the monitoring and analyzing of the long term liquidity in the concrete business, in this case the printing industrycompany. Hereby at the end of the article mentioned monitored and analyzed liquidity is evaluated in the five years time period.

An optode sensor array for long term in situ Oxygen measurements in soil and sediment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rickelt, Lars F; Jensen, Louise Askær; Walpersdorf, Eva Christine

2013-01-01

Long-term measurements of molecular oxygen (O2) dynamics in wetlands are highly relevant for understanding the eff ects of water level changes on net greenhouse gas budgets in these ecosystems. However, such measurements have been limited due to a lack of suitable measuring equipment. We construc......Long-term measurements of molecular oxygen (O2) dynamics in wetlands are highly relevant for understanding the eff ects of water level changes on net greenhouse gas budgets in these ecosystems. However, such measurements have been limited due to a lack of suitable measuring equipment. We...... constructed an O2 optode sensor array for long-term in situ measurements in soil and sediment. Th e new device consists of a 1.3-m-long, cylindrical, spear-shaped rod equipped with 10 sensor spots along the shaft . Each spot contains a thermocouple fi xed with a robust fi beroptic O2 optode made...... characteristics of the sensor array system are presented along with a novel approach for temperature compensation of O2 optodes. During in situ application over several months in a peat bog, we used the new device to document pronounced variations in O2 distribution aft er marked shift s in water level. Th e...

A Comparison of the Long Term Interdependence of Southeast Asian Equity Markets

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Raisul Islam

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the equity market crisis contagion in major Asian economic markets. A comparative assessment of Asian markets during the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial crisis may clearly identify the changing nature of long term integration of major Asian markets. The selection criteria of specific Asian markets of different peripheries depend particularly on the roles and structure of these markets. The impact of the global financial contagion and the lingering financial linkage in the aftermath of crisis will explain the reaction of the majority of Asian markets to global linkage. While majority of the studies focused on dynamic short term association in European and MENA contagions in the post global financial crisis period; after the global financial crisis, attention paid to long term Asian contagion adds new perspective to hitherto disorganized theories.

Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick A. Zollner; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He; Volker C. Radeloff; David J. Mladenoff

2005-01-01

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies...

A hierarchical spatial framework for forest landscape planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Pete Bettinger; Marie Lennette; K. Norman Johnson; Thomas A. Spies

2005-01-01

A hierarchical spatial framework for large-scale, long-term forest landscape planning is presented along with example policy analyses for a 560,000 ha area of the Oregon Coast Range. The modeling framework suggests utilizing the detail provided by satellite imagery to track forest vegetation condition and for representation of fine-scale features, such as riparian...

Loss of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity in trap cultures during long-term subculturing.

Science.gov (United States)

Trejo-Aguilar, Dora; Lara-Capistrán, Liliana; Maldonado-Mendoza, Ignacio E; Zulueta-Rodríguez, Ramón; Sangabriel-Conde, Wendy; Mancera-López, María Elena; Negrete-Yankelevich, Simoneta; Barois, Isabelle

2013-12-01

Long-term successional dynamics of an inoculum of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) associated with the maize rhizosphere (from traditionally managed agroecosystems in Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico), was followed in Bracchiaria comata trap cultures for almost eight years. The results indicate that AMF diversity is lost following long-term subculturing of a single plant host species. Only the dominant species, Claroideoglomus etunicatum, persisted in pot cultures after 13 cycles. The absence of other morphotypes was demonstrated by an 18S rDNA survey, which confirmed that the sequences present solely belonged to C. etunicatum. Members of Diversisporales were the first to decrease in diversity, and the most persistent species belonged to Glomerales.

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Topping, Christopher John; Kjaer, Lene Jung; Hommen, Udo; Høye, Toke Thomas; Preuss, Thomas G; Sibly, Richard M; van Vliet, Peter

2014-07-01

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors. © 2014 SETAC.

Improving long-term care provision: towards demand-based care by means of modularity

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Meijboom Bert

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background As in most fields of health care, societal and political changes encourage suppliers of long-term care to put their clients at the center of care and service provision and become more responsive towards client needs and requirements. However, the diverse, multiple and dynamic nature of demand for long-term care complicates the movement towards demand-based care provision. This paper aims to advance long-term care practice and, to that end, examines the application of modularity. This concept is recognized in a wide range of product and service settings for its ability to design demand-based products and processes. Methods Starting from the basic dimensions of modularity, we use qualitative research to explore the use and application of modularity principles in the current working practices and processes of four organizations in the field of long-term care for the elderly. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 key informants and triangulated with document research and observation. Data was analyzed thematically by means of coding and subsequent exploration of patterns. Data analysis was facilitated by qualitative analysis software. Results Our data suggest that a modular setup of supply is employed in the arrangement of care and service supply and assists providers of long-term care in providing their clients with choice options and variation. In addition, modularization of the needs assessment and package specification process allows the case organizations to manage client involvement but still provide customized packages of care and services. Conclusion The adequate setup of an organization's supply and its specification phase activities are indispensible for long-term care providers who aim to do better in terms of quality and efficiency. Moreover, long-term care providers could benefit from joint provision of care and services by means of modular working teams. Based upon our findings, we are able to

Improving long-term care provision: towards demand-based care by means of modularity

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Background As in most fields of health care, societal and political changes encourage suppliers of long-term care to put their clients at the center of care and service provision and become more responsive towards client needs and requirements. However, the diverse, multiple and dynamic nature of demand for long-term care complicates the movement towards demand-based care provision. This paper aims to advance long-term care practice and, to that end, examines the application of modularity. This concept is recognized in a wide range of product and service settings for its ability to design demand-based products and processes. Methods Starting from the basic dimensions of modularity, we use qualitative research to explore the use and application of modularity principles in the current working practices and processes of four organizations in the field of long-term care for the elderly. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 key informants and triangulated with document research and observation. Data was analyzed thematically by means of coding and subsequent exploration of patterns. Data analysis was facilitated by qualitative analysis software. Results Our data suggest that a modular setup of supply is employed in the arrangement of care and service supply and assists providers of long-term care in providing their clients with choice options and variation. In addition, modularization of the needs assessment and package specification process allows the case organizations to manage client involvement but still provide customized packages of care and services. Conclusion The adequate setup of an organization's supply and its specification phase activities are indispensible for long-term care providers who aim to do better in terms of quality and efficiency. Moreover, long-term care providers could benefit from joint provision of care and services by means of modular working teams. Based upon our findings, we are able to elaborate on how to further

Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

2005-01-01

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

2001-01-01

Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

The environment in the Netherlands in the long-term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieringa, K.; Maas, R.

1992-01-01

The environmental problem is one of the central elements in the newest long-term scenarios of the CPB (Dutch Central Planning Bureau). Will the environmental problems limit the economic growth for the next 25 years? Or can growth of production and consumption be combined with the environmental aims as formulated in the National Environmental Policy (NMP in Dutch). Being a preliminary study on the third National Environmental Outlook (to be published in 1993) the governmental institute for public health and environmental hygiene (RIVM) calculated the environmental impacts in the scenarios developed by the CPB. In particular attention is paid to the costs of the planned environmental policy. The scenarios discussed are Balanced Growth, characterized by a strong economic growth, sustainable economic development, and a dynamic technological development, the Global Shift scenario, characterized by a very dynamic technological development, and the European Renaissance scenario with a less dynamic development. 2 figs., 1 tab

Long-term biodosimetry Redux

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

2016-01-01

This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

Long term radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavie, J.M.

1984-01-01

In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

The landscape of nonlinear structural dynamics: an introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Butlin, T; Woodhouse, J; Champneys, A R

2015-09-28

Nonlinear behaviour is ever-present in vibrations and other dynamical motions of engineering structures. Manifestations of nonlinearity include amplitude-dependent natural frequencies, buzz, squeak and rattle, self-excited oscillation and non-repeatability. This article primarily serves as an extended introduction to a theme issue in which such nonlinear phenomena are highlighted through diverse case studies. More ambitiously though, there is another goal. Both the engineering context and the mathematical techniques that can be used to identify, analyse, control or exploit these phenomena in practice are placed in the context of a mind-map, which has been created through expert elicitation. This map, which is available in software through the electronic supplementary material, attempts to provide a practitioner's guide to what hitherto might seem like a vast and complex research landscape. © 2015 The Authors.

Short-term memory and long-term memory are still different.

Science.gov (United States)

Norris, Dennis

2017-09-01

A commonly expressed view is that short-term memory (STM) is nothing more than activated long-term memory. If true, this would overturn a central tenet of cognitive psychology-the idea that there are functionally and neurobiologically distinct short- and long-term stores. Here I present an updated case for a separation between short- and long-term stores, focusing on the computational demands placed on any STM system. STM must support memory for previously unencountered information, the storage of multiple tokens of the same type, and variable binding. None of these can be achieved simply by activating long-term memory. For example, even a simple sequence of digits such as "1, 3, 1" where there are 2 tokens of the digit "1" cannot be stored in the correct order simply by activating the representations of the digits "1" and "3" in LTM. I also review recent neuroimaging data that has been presented as evidence that STM is activated LTM and show that these data are exactly what one would expect to see based on a conventional 2-store view. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernard, Aude

2017-12-01

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

Long-term performance potential of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems

KAUST Repository

Burhan, Muhammad

2017-07-17

Owing to the diverse photovoltaic (PV) systems’ design and technology, as well as the dynamic nature of insolation data received on the aperture surfaces, the instantaneous output from a PV system fluctuates greatly. For accurate performance estimation of a large PV field, the long term performance as electrical output is a more rational approach over the conventional testing methods, such as at Standard Testing Conditions (STC) and at the Nominal Operating Cell Temperature (NOCT) available hitherto. In this paper, the long-term performances of concentrated PVs (Cassegrain reflectors and Fresnel lens) with 2-axes tracking and a variety of PV systems, namely the stationary flat-plate PV (mono-crystalline, poly-crystalline and thin-films CIS types), is presented over a period of one year for the merit comparison of system design, under the tropical weather conditions of Singapore. From the measured field performances, the total energy output of 240.2 kW h/m/year is recorded for CPV operation in Singapore, which is nearly two folds higher than the stationary PV panels.

Anthropogenic halo disturbances alter landscape and plant richness: a ripple effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bingliang; Su, Jinbao; Chen, Jianwei; Cui, Guofa; Ma, Jianzhang

2013-01-01

Although anthropogenic landscape fragmentation is often considered as the primary threat to biodiversity, other factors such as immediate human disturbances may also simultaneously threaten species persistence in various ways. In this paper, we introduce a conceptual framework applied to recreation landscapes (RLs), with an aim to provide insight into the composite influences of landscape alteration accompanying immediate human disturbances on plant richness dynamics. These impacts largely occur at patch-edges. They can not only alter patch-edge structure and environment, but also permeate into surrounding natural matrices/patches affecting species persistence-here we term these "Halo disturbance effects" (HDEs). We categorized species into groups based on seed or pollen dispersal mode (animal- vs. wind-dispersed) as they can be associated with species richness dynamics. We evaluated the richness of the two groups and total species in our experimental landscapes by considering the distance from patch-edge, the size of RLs and the intensity of human use over a six-year period. Our results show that animal-dispersed species decreased considerably, whereas wind-dispersed species increased while their richness presented diverse dynamics at different distances from patch-edges. Our findings clearly demonstrate that anthropogenic HDEs produce ripple effects on plant, providing an experimental interpretation for the diverse responses of species to anthropogenic disturbances. This study highlights the importance of incorporating these composite threats into conservation and management strategies.

Anthropogenic halo disturbances alter landscape and plant richness: a ripple effect.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bingliang Liu

Full Text Available Although anthropogenic landscape fragmentation is often considered as the primary threat to biodiversity, other factors such as immediate human disturbances may also simultaneously threaten species persistence in various ways. In this paper, we introduce a conceptual framework applied to recreation landscapes (RLs, with an aim to provide insight into the composite influences of landscape alteration accompanying immediate human disturbances on plant richness dynamics. These impacts largely occur at patch-edges. They can not only alter patch-edge structure and environment, but also permeate into surrounding natural matrices/patches affecting species persistence-here we term these "Halo disturbance effects" (HDEs. We categorized species into groups based on seed or pollen dispersal mode (animal- vs. wind-dispersed as they can be associated with species richness dynamics. We evaluated the richness of the two groups and total species in our experimental landscapes by considering the distance from patch-edge, the size of RLs and the intensity of human use over a six-year period. Our results show that animal-dispersed species decreased considerably, whereas wind-dispersed species increased while their richness presented diverse dynamics at different distances from patch-edges. Our findings clearly demonstrate that anthropogenic HDEs produce ripple effects on plant, providing an experimental interpretation for the diverse responses of species to anthropogenic disturbances. This study highlights the importance of incorporating these composite threats into conservation and management strategies.

Land-atmosphere coupling and soil moisture memory contribute to long-term agricultural drought

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Newman, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Livneh, B.; Lombardozzi, D. L.

2017-12-01

We assessed the contribution of land-atmosphere coupling and soil moisture memory on long-term agricultural droughts in the US. We performed an ensemble of climate model simulations to study soil moisture dynamics under two atmospheric forcing scenarios: active and muted land-atmosphere coupling. Land-atmosphere coupling contributes to a 12% increase and 36% decrease in the decorrelation time scale of soil moisture anomalies in the US Great Plains and the Southwest, respectively. These differences in soil moisture memory affect the length and severity of modeled drought. Consequently, long-term droughts are 10% longer and 3% more severe in the Great Plains, and 15% shorter and 21% less severe in the Southwest. An analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project phase 5 data shows four fold uncertainty in soil moisture memory across models that strongly affects simulated long-term droughts and is potentially attributable to the differences in soil water storage capacity across models.

Long-Term Collections

CERN Multimedia

Comité des collectes à long terme

2011-01-01

It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

Family Structure and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase

Science.gov (United States)

Van Houtven, Courtney Harold; Coe, Norma B.; Konetzka, R. Tamara

2015-01-01

While it has long been assumed that family structure and potential sources of informal care play a large role in the purchase decisions for long-term care insurance (LTCI), current empirical evidence is inconclusive. Our study examines the relationship between family structure and LTCI purchase and addresses several major limitations of the prior literature by using a long panel of data and considering modern family relationships, such as presence of stepchildren. We find that family structure characteristics from one’s own generation, particularly about one’s spouse, are associated with purchase, but that few family structure attributes from the younger generation have an influence. Family factors that may indicate future caregiver supply are negatively associated with purchase: having a coresidential child, signaling close proximity, and having a currently working spouse, signaling a healthy and able spouse, that LTC planning has not occurred yet, or that there is less need for asset protection afforded by LTCI. Dynamic factors, such as increasing wealth or turning 65, are associated with higher likelihood of LTCI purchase. PMID:25760583

Glossary on agricultural landscapes.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kruse, A.; Centeri, C.; Renes, J.; Roth, M.; Printsman, A.; Palang, H.; Benito Jorda, M.-D.; Verlarde, M.D.; Kruckenberg, H.

2010-01-01

T he following glossary of terms related to the European agricultural landscape shall serve as a common basis for all parties, working in or on agricultural landscapes. Some of the terms are quite common and sometimes used in our every day language, but they often have different meanings in

A landscape plan based on historical fire regimes for a managed forest ecosystem: the Augusta Creek study.

Science.gov (United States)

John H. Cissel; Frederick J. Swanson; Gordon E. Grant; Deanna H. Olson; Gregory V. Stanley; Steven L. Garman; Linda R. Ashkenas; Matthew G. Hunter; Jane A. Kertis; James H. Mayo; Michelle D. McSwain; Sam G. Swetland; Keith A. Swindle; David O. Wallin

1998-01-01

The Augusta Creek project was initiated to establish and integrate landscape and watershed objectives into a landscape plan to guide management activities within a 7600-hectare (19,000-acre) planning area in western Oregon. Primary objectives included the maintenance of native species, ecosystem processes and structures, and long-term ecosystem productivity in a...

A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

2014-01-01

Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett–Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network. - Highlights: • We take the Fick diffusion and the Soret diffusion into account in the ion drift theory. • We develop a new model based on the old HP model. • The new model can describe the forgetting effect and the spike-rate-dependent property of memristor. • The new model can solve the boundary effect of all window functions discussed in [13]. • A new Hopfield neural network with the forgetting ability is built by the new memristor model

The Globalized Landscape: Rural Landscape Change and Policy in the United States and European Union

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nassauer, J.I.; Wascher, D.M.

2008-01-01

While some rural areas draw increasing populations to their landscape amenities and some are changed by the long reach of metropolitan sprawl, agriculture defines, and dominates rural landscapes. Amenity characteristics and ecological services of many rural landscapes occur in the context of

Financial Development, Long-Term Finance and the Macroeconomy : The Role of Secondary Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uras, R.B.

2014-01-01

The paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of financial markets and macroeconomy. In the model, long-term debt is extended to firms in a primary market and then traded in a secondary market among financiers. Two financial frictions that are ex-ante and ex-post with respect to the

Long-Term Memory Performance in Adult ADHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Skodzik, Timo; Holling, Heinz; Pedersen, Anya

2017-02-01

Memory problems are a frequently reported symptom in adult ADHD, and it is well-documented that adults with ADHD perform poorly on long-term memory tests. However, the cause of this effect is still controversial. The present meta-analysis examined underlying mechanisms that may lead to long-term memory impairments in adult ADHD. We performed separate meta-analyses of measures of memory acquisition and long-term memory using both verbal and visual memory tests. In addition, the influence of potential moderator variables was examined. Adults with ADHD performed significantly worse than controls on verbal but not on visual long-term memory and memory acquisition subtests. The long-term memory deficit was strongly statistically related to the memory acquisition deficit. In contrast, no retrieval problems were observable. Our results suggest that memory deficits in adult ADHD reflect a learning deficit induced at the stage of encoding. Implications for clinical and research settings are presented.

Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi

1986-03-01

As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

A Long-term Plan for Kalk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2017-01-01

In this case, the author demonstrates together with the owner-manager of KALK A/S, Mr Rasmus Jorgensen, how to use the Family Business Map to frame a constructive discussion about long-term planning. The Family Business Map is a tool for long-term planning in family firms developed by Professor...

Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

Science.gov (United States)

Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

2012-01-01

Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation

OpenAIRE

Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

2013-01-01

Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted imag...

Prevalence of Long-Term Opioid Use in Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunnicutt, Jacob N; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Ulbricht, Christine M; Hume, Anne L; Tjia, Jennifer; Lapane, Kate L

2018-01-01

Overall and long-term opioid use among older adults have increased since 1999. Less is known about opioid use in older adults in nursing homes (NHs). Cross-sectional. U.S. NHs (N = 13,522). Long-stay NH resident Medicare beneficiaries with a Minimum Data Set 3.0 (MDS) assessment between April 1, 2012, and June 30, 2012, and 120 days of follow-up (N = 315,949). We used Medicare Part D claims to measure length of opioid use in the 120 days from the index assessment (short-term: ≤30 days, medium-term: >30-89 days, long-term: ≥90 days), adjuvants (e.g., anticonvulsants), and other pain medications (e.g., corticosteroids). MDS assessments in the follow-up period were used to measure nonpharmacological pain management use. Modified Poisson models were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for age, gender, race and ethnicity, cognitive and physical impairment, and long-term opioid use. Of all long-stay residents, 32.4% were prescribed any opioid, and 15.5% were prescribed opioids long-term. Opioid users (versus nonusers) were more commonly prescribed pain adjuvants (32.9% vs 14.9%), other pain medications (25.5% vs 11.0%), and nonpharmacological pain management (24.5% vs 9.3%). Long-term opioid use was higher in women (aPR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.18-1.23) and lower in racial and ethnic minorities (non-Hispanic blacks vs whites: APR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.90-0.94) and those with severe cognitive impairment (vs no or mild impairment, aPR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.79-0.83). One in seven NH residents was prescribed opioids long-term. Recent guidelines on opioid prescribing for pain recommend reducing long-term opioid use, but this is challenging in NHs because residents may not benefit from nonpharmacological and nonopioid interventions. Studies to address concerns about opioid safety and effectiveness (e.g., on pain and functional status) in NHs are needed. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics

Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Langmead, Christopher James

2014-01-01

Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

Amyloid Deposition in Transplanted Human Pancreatic Islets: A Conceivable Cause of Their Long-Term Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arne Andersson

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Following the encouraging report of the Edmonton group, there was a rejuvenation of the islet transplantation field. After that, more pessimistic views spread when long-term results of the clinical outcome were published. A progressive loss of the β-cell function meant that almost all patients were back on insulin therapy after 5 years. More than 10 years ago, we demonstrated that amyloid deposits rapidly formed in human islets and in mouse islets transgenic for human IAPP when grafted into nude mice. It is, therefore, conceivable to consider amyloid formation as one potential candidate for the long-term failure. The present paper reviews attempts in our laboratories to elucidate the dynamics of and mechanisms behind the formation of amyloid in transplanted islets with special emphasis on the impact of long-term hyperglycemia.

Control of the Onboard Microgravity Environment and Extension of the Service Life of the Long-Term Space Station

Science.gov (United States)

Titov, V. A.

2018-03-01

The problem of control of the on-board microgravity environment in order to extend the service life of the long-term space station has been discussed. Software developed for the ISS and the results of identifying dynamic models and external impacts based on telemetry data have been presented. Proposals for controlling the onboard microgravity environment for future long-term space stations have been formulated.

Long-Term Stewardship Baseline Report and Transition Guidance