Long-term effects of drought on tree-ring growth and carbon isotope variability in Scots pine in a dry environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeeva, Galina; Treydte, Kerstin; Bugmann, Harald; Rigling, Andreas; Schaub, Marcus; Siegwolf, Rolf; Saurer, Matthias

2017-08-01

Drought frequency is increasing in many parts of the world and may enhance tree decline and mortality. The underlying physiological mechanisms are poorly understood, however, particularly regarding chronic effects of long-term drought and the response to increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We combined analyses of radial growth and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in tree rings in a mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest over the 20th century to elucidate causes of tree mortality in one of the driest parts of the European Alps (Pfynwald, Switzerland). We further compared trees that have recently died with living trees in a 10-year irrigation experiment, where annual precipitation was doubled. We found a sustained growth increase and immediate depletion of δ13C values for irrigated trees, indicating higher stomatal conductance and thus indeed demonstrating that water is a key limiting factor for growth. Growth of the now-dead trees started declining in the mid-1980s, when both mean temperature and VPD increased strongly. But growth of these trees was reduced to some extent already several decades earlier, while intrinsic water-use efficiency derived from δ13C values was higher. This indicates a more conservative water-use strategy compared with surviving trees, possibly at the cost of low carbon uptake and long-term reduction of the needle mass. We observed reduced climatic sensitivity of raw tree-ring δ13C for the now-dead in contrast to surviving trees, indicating impaired stomatal regulation, although this difference between the tree groups was smaller after detrending the data. Higher autocorrelation and a lower inter-annual δ13C variability of the now-dead trees further indicates a strong dependence on (low) carbon reserves. We conclude that the recent increase in atmospheric moisture demand in combination with insufficient soil water supply was the main trigger for mortality of those trees that were weakened by long-term

Growth adjustments of conifers to drought and to century-long irrigation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feichtinger, L.M.; Eilmann, B.; Buchmann, N.; Rigling, A.

2014-01-01

Our knowledge on tree responses to drought is mainly based on short-term manipulation experiments which do not capture any possible long-term adjustments in this response. Therefore, historical water channels in inner-Alpine dry valleys were used as century-long irrigation experiments to investigate

El Niño drought increased canopy turnover in Amazon forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Leitold, Veronika; Morton, Douglas C; Longo, Marcos; Dos-Santos, Maiza Nara; Keller, Michael; Scaranello, Marcos

2018-03-25

Amazon droughts, including the 2015-2016 El Niño, may reduce forest net primary productivity and increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering both the short- and the long-term net forest carbon balance. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, inventory plots or eddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. We used multi-temporal airborne Lidar data and field measurements of coarse woody debris to estimate patterns of canopy turnover and associated carbon losses in intact and fragmented forests in the central Brazilian Amazon between 2013-2014 and 2014-2016. Average annualized canopy turnover rates increased by 65% during the drought period in both intact and fragmented forests. The average size and height of turnover events was similar for both time intervals, in contrast to expectations that the 2015-2016 El Niño drought would disproportionally affect large trees. Lidar-biomass relationships between canopy turnover and field measurements of coarse woody debris were modest (R 2  ≈ 0.3), given similar coarse woody debris production and Lidar-derived changes in canopy volume from single tree and multiple branch fall events. Our findings suggest that El Niño conditions accelerated canopy turnover in central Amazon forests, increasing coarse woody debris production by 62% to 1.22 Mg C ha -1  yr -1 in drought years . No claim to original US Government works New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

2017-07-01

A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

Effects of long-term elevated CO2, warming, and prolonged drought on Pleurozium-associated diazotrophic activity and abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Dyrnum, Kristine; Priemé, Anders; Michelsen, Anders

2014-05-01

Nitrogen (N2) fixation is the primary natural influx of N to terrestrial ecosystems, and changes in N2 fixation may have consequences for primary productivity and thus ecosystem function. We studied the activity and abundance of diazotrophs associated with the feather moss Pleurozium schreberi in a temperate heathland, after seven years of global change manipulations, including elevated atmospheric CO2 (510 ppm), increased temperature (0.5-1.5 ° C), and prolonged pre-summer droughts (4-6 weeks /year). Acetylene reduction assay was carried out monthly to monitor N2 fixation rates throughout one year, while nif H copy abundance, serving as a diazotroph abundance estimate, was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR). Prolonged summer droughts significantly increased both N2 fixation and nif H copy abundance, contrasting previous studies that demonstrate a direct negative correlation between N2 fixation and water availability. A shift in the relative abundance of N2-fixing bacteria from the green, upper parts of the moss stem to the lower, brown parts was observed. This shift could make diazotrophs less sensitive to desiccation, enabling N2 fixation to be upheld for longer during drought and thus causing higher abundance. Increased temperature likewise had a positive effect on the diazotroph abundance, although this did not translate into increased activity. Possibly, warming protects diazotrophs during extreme cold events, while actual N2 fixation is limited by water, disregarding a rise in potential N2 fixation caused by higher abundance. Increased CO2 caused no significant diazotroph response. Our study showed that long-term increase in temperature and recurrent drought events cause higher diazotroph abundance in Pleurozium schreberi and thus enhance the potential N2 fixations rate. Furthermore, our results indicate that diazotrophs may alter colonization patterns and thereby actively remain in the moss fraction less likely affected by

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-25

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

Science.gov (United States)

Janardhanan, A.

2017-12-01

Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

Drought stress release increased growth rate but did not affect levels of storage carbohydrates in Scots pine trees

Science.gov (United States)

Schönbeck, Leonie; Gessler, Arthur; Rigling, Andreas; Schaub, Marcus; Li, Mai-He

2017-04-01

For trees, energy storage in the form of non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) plays an important role for survival and growth, especially during stress events such as drought. It is hypothesized, that tree individuals that experience long-term drought stress use up larger amounts of NSCs than trees that do not experience drought. Consequently, such drought-induced depletion might lead to a decrease in tree vigor and carbon starvation, a mechanism that is subject of intensive debates in recent literature. Hence, if carbon starvation is occurring during drought, drought stress release should again increase NSC concentrations. A long-term (13 years) irrigation experiment is being conducted in the Pfyn forest, the largest Pinus sylvestris dominated forest in Switzerland, located in the dry inner-Alpine Swiss Rhone valley (average precipitation 600 mm/year, with frequent dry spells). Water addition ( 600 mm/year) is executed every year during the growing season between April and October. Tree height, stem diameter and crown transparency are being measured since 2003. In February, July and October 2015, roots, stem sapwood and needles were harvested from 30 irrigated and 30 control trees and 5 different crown transparency classes. Shoot length, needle morphology, soluble sugars, starch concentrations, needle δ13C and δ15N were measured. Shoot and stem growth were higher in irrigated trees than in control trees. Growth decreased with increasing crown transparency in both treatments. Only in July, needle starch levels were higher in irrigated trees than in control trees but there was no treatment effect for wood and root starch concentrations. Tissue starch and sugar levels were negatively correlated with crown transparency, particularly in the roots (preduced NSC is related to reduced tree vigor under drought.

Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency

Science.gov (United States)

Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.; Schwabe, K.

2016-12-01

Using state contingent analysis we discuss how and why irrigators adapt to alternative water supply signals. This analysis approach helps to illustrate how and why producers currently use state-general and state-allocable inputs to adapt and respond to known and possible future climatic alternative natures. Focusing on the timing of water allocations, we explore inherent differences in the demand for water by two key irrigation sectors: annual and perennial producers which in Australia have allowed a significant degree of risk-minimisation during droughts. In the absence of land constraints, producers also had a capacity to respond to positive state outcomes and achieve super-normal profits. In the future, however, the probability of positive state outcomes is uncertain; production systems may need to adapt to minimise losses and/or achieve positive returns under altered water supply conditions that may arise as a consequence of more frequent drought states. As such, producers must assess whether altering current input/output choice sets in response to possible future climate states will enhance their long-run competitive advantage for both expected new normal and extreme water supply outcomes. Further, policy supporting agricultural sector climate change resilience must avoid poorly-designed strategies that increase producer vulnerability in the face of drought. Our analysis explores the reliability of alternative water property right bundles and how reduced allocations across time influence alternative responses by producers. We then extend our analysis to explore how management strategies could adapt to two possible future drier state types: i) where an average reduction in water supply is experienced; and ii) where the frequency of droughts increase. The combination of these findings are subsequently used to discuss the role water reform policy has to deal with current and future climate scenarios. We argue current policy strategies could drive producers to

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Lillo-Saavedra, Mario; Lagos, Octavio

2017-04-01

Precipitation is a key parameter for the study of climate change and variability and the detection and monitoring of natural disaster such as drought. Precipitation datasets that accurately capture the amount and spatial variability of rainfall is critical for drought monitoring and a wide range of other climate applications. This is challenging in many parts of the world, which often have a limited number of weather stations and/or historical data records. Satellite-derived precipitation products offer a viable alternative with several remotely sensed precipitation datasets now available with long historical data records (+30years), which include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) datasets. This study presents a comparative analysis of three historical satellite-based precipitation datasets that include Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B43 version 7 (1998-2015), PERSIANN-CDR (1983-2015) and CHIRPS 2.0 (1981-2015) over Chile to assess their performance across the country and for the case of the two long-term products the applicability for agricultural drought were evaluated when used in the calculation of commonly used drought indicator as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this analysis, 278 weather stations of in situ rainfall measurements across Chile were initially compared to the satellite data. The study area (Chile) was divided into five latitudinal zones: North, North-Central, Central, South-Central and South to determine if there were a regional difference among these satellite products, and nine statistics were used to evaluate their performance to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of historical rainfall across Chile. Hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means and singular value decomposition were used to analyze

Saving and Re-building Lives: Determinants of Short-term and Long-term Disaster Relief

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geethanjali SELVARETNAM

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We analyse both theoretically and empirically, the factors that influence the amount of humanitarian aid received by countries which are struck by natural disasters, particularly distinguishing between immediate disaster relief and long term humanitarian aid. The theoretical model is able to make predictions as well as explain some of the peculiarities in the empirical results. We show that both short and long term humanitarian aid increases with number of people killed, financial loss and level of corruption, while GDP per capita had no effect. More populated countries receive more humanitarian aid. Earthquake, tsunami and drought attract more aid.

Fires in Non-drought Conditions in Indonesia: the Role of Increasing Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, K.; Verchot, L. V.; Baethgen, W.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Martius, C.

2017-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Persistent increased PKMζ in long-term and remote spatial memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Changchi; Tsokas, Panayiotis; Serrano, Peter; Hernández, A Iván; Tian, Dezhi; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

2017-02-01

PKMζ is an autonomously active PKC isoform that is thought to maintain both LTP and long-term memory. Whereas persistent increases in PKMζ protein sustain the kinase's action in LTP, the molecular mechanism for the persistent action of PKMζ during long-term memory has not been characterized. PKMζ inhibitors disrupt spatial memory when introduced into the dorsal hippocampus from 1day to 1month after training. Therefore, if the mechanisms of PKMζ's persistent action in LTP maintenance and long-term memory were similar, persistent increases in PKMζ would last for the duration of the memory, far longer than most other learning-induced gene products. Here we find that spatial conditioning by aversive active place avoidance or appetitive radial arm maze induces PKMζ increases in dorsal hippocampus that persist from 1day to 1month, coinciding with the strength and duration of memory retention. Suppressing the increase by intrahippocampal injections of PKMζ-antisense oligodeoxynucleotides prevents the formation of long-term memory. Thus, similar to LTP maintenance, the persistent increase in the amount of autonomously active PKMζ sustains the kinase's action during long-term and remote spatial memory maintenance. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Long-term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

OpenAIRE

Alderman,Harold; Hoddinott, John; Kinsey, Bill

2003-01-01

"This paper examines the impact of preschool malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects-instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long-term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought 'shocks' are used to identify differences in preschool nutritional status across siblings. Improvements in height-for-age in preschoolers are associated with increased height as a young adult and number of grades of schooling completed....

A new framework for evaluating the impacts of drought on net primary productivity of grassland.

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Tianjie; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Geng, Guangpo; Shao, Changliang; Zhou, Hongkui; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Leizhen

2015-12-01

This paper presented a valuable framework for evaluating the impacts of droughts (single factor) on grassland ecosystems. This framework was defined as the quantitative magnitude of drought impact that unacceptable short-term and long-term effects on ecosystems may experience relative to the reference standard. Long-term effects on ecosystems may occur relative to the reference standard. Net primary productivity (NPP) was selected as the response indicator of drought to assess the quantitative impact of drought on Inner Mongolia grassland based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and BIOME-BGC model. The framework consists of six main steps: 1) clearly defining drought scenarios, such as moderate, severe and extreme drought; 2) selecting an appropriate indicator of drought impact; 3) selecting an appropriate ecosystem model and verifying its capabilities, calibrating the bias and assessing the uncertainty; 4) assigning a level of unacceptable impact of drought on the indicator; 5) determining the response of the indicator to drought and normal weather state under global-change; and 6) investigating the unacceptable impact of drought at different spatial scales. We found NPP losses assessed using the new framework were more sensitive to drought and had higher precision than the long-term average method. Moreover, the total and average losses of NPP are different in different grassland types during the drought years from 1961-2009. NPP loss was significantly increased along a gradient of increasing drought levels. Meanwhile, NPP loss variation under the same drought level was different in different grassland types. The operational framework was particularly suited for integrative assessing the effects of different drought events and long-term droughts at multiple spatial scales, which provided essential insights for sciences and societies that must develop coping strategies for ecosystems for such events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental drought induces short-term changes in soil functionality and microbial community structure after fire in a Mediterranean shrubland

Science.gov (United States)

Hinojosa, M. B.; Parra, A.; Laudicina, V. A.; Moreno, J. M.

2014-10-01

Fire is a major ecosystem driver, causing significant changes in soil nutrients and microbial community structure and functionality. Post-fire soil dynamics can vary depending on rainfall patterns, although variations in response to drought are poorly known. This is particularly important in areas with poor soils and limited rainfall, like arid and semiarid ones. Furthermore, climate change projections in many such areas anticipate reduced precipitation and longer drought, together with an increase in fire severity. The effects of experimental drought and fire were studied on soils in a Mediterranean Cistus-Erica shrubland in Central Spain. A replicated (n = 4) field experiment was carried out in which four levels of rainfall pattern were implemented by means of a rain-out shelters and irrigation system. The treatments were: environmental control (natural rainfall), historical control (long-term average rainfall, 2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction of historical control, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). After one growing season, the plots were burned with high fire intensity, except a set of unburned plots that served as control. Soils were collected seasonally during one year and variables related to soil nutrient availability and microbial community structure and functionality were studied. Burned soils increased nutrient availability (P, N, K) with respect to unburned ones, but drought reduced such an increase in P, while it further increased N and K. Such changes in available soil nutrients were short-lived. Drought caused a further decrease of enzyme activities, carbon mineralization rate and microbial biomass. Fire decreased the relative abundance of fungi and actinomycetes. However, fire and drought caused a further reduction in fungi, with bacteria becoming relatively more abundant. Arguably, increasing drought and fires due to climate change will likely shift soil recovery after fire.

Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

2017-06-01

Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Responses of enchytraeids to increased temperature, drought and atmospheric CO2: Results of an eight-year field experiment in dry heathland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holmstrup, Martin; Schmelz, Rüdiger M.; Carrera, Noela

2015-01-01

In a long-term field trial we investigated the responses of enchytraeids to simulated future climatic conditions predicted for Denmark. At a semi-natural Danish heathland site we exposed 9.1 m2 plots to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (510 ppm), extended summer drought and passive night...... in spring 2013, perhaps indicating that warming stimulates fragmentation (reproduction) rates at this time of the year. Increased drought in MayeJune 2012 did not have lasting effects on abundance or biomass 3 months after the termination of drought treatment. However, comparison with earlier assessments...... of enchytraeids in the CLIMAITE experiment shows that the severity of drought and the time elapsed since the last drought is the best predictor of the biovolume (or biomass) of enchytraeids. Moreover, species richness was significantly impacted by the average soil water content experienced by enchytraeids during...

Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kinsey, B.H.; Hoddinott, J; Alderman, H.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the impact of pre-school malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects - instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought shocks are used to identify

Heavy and frequent thinning promotes drought adaptation in Pinus sylvestris forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Sohn, Julia A; Hartig, Florian; Kohler, Martin; Huss, Jürgen; Bauhus, Jürgen

2016-10-01

Droughts and their negative effects on forest ecosystems are projected to increase under climate change for many regions. It has been suggested that intensive thinning could reduce drought impacts on established forests in the short-term. Most previous studies on the effect of thinning on drought impacts, however, have been confined to single forest sites. It is therefore still unclear how general and persisting the benefits of thinning are. This study assesses the potential of thinning to increase drought tolerance of the wide spread Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in Central Europe. We hypothesized (1) that increasing thinning intensity benefits the maintenance of radial growth of crop trees during drought (resistance) and its recovery following drought, (2) that those benefits to growth decrease with time elapsed since the last thinning and with stand age, and (3) that they may depend on drought severity as well as water limitations in pre- and post-drought periods. To test these hypotheses, we assessed the effects of thinning regime, stand age, and drought severity on radial growth of 129 Scots pine trees during and after drought events in four long-term thinning experiments in Germany. We found that thinning improved the recovery of radial growth following drought and to a lesser extent the growth resistance during a drought event. Growth recovery following drought was highest after the first thinning intervention and in recently and heavily thinned stands. With time since the last thinning, however, this effect decreased and could even become negative when compared to unthinned stands. Further, thinning helped to avoid an age-related decline in growth resistance (and recovery) following drought. The recovery following drought, but not the resistance during drought, was related to water limitations in the drought period. This is the first study that analyzed drought-related radial growth in trees of one species across several stands of different age. The

Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Kátia; Verchot, Louis; Baethgen, Walter; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel; Martius, Christopher

2017-05-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia.

A near real-time satellite-based global drought climate data record

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid

2012-01-01

Reliable drought monitoring requires long-term and continuous precipitation data. High resolution satellite measurements provide valuable precipitation information on a quasi-global scale. However, their short lengths of records limit their applications in drought monitoring. In addition to this limitation, long-term low resolution satellite-based gauge-adjusted data sets such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) one are not available in near real-time form for timely drought monitoring. This study bridges the gap between low resolution long-term satellite gauge-adjusted data and the emerging high resolution satellite precipitation data sets to create a long-term climate data record of droughts. To accomplish this, a Bayesian correction algorithm is used to combine GPCP data with real-time satellite precipitation data sets for drought monitoring and analysis. The results showed that the combined data sets after the Bayesian correction were a significant improvement compared to the uncorrected data. Furthermore, several recent major droughts such as the 2011 Texas, 2010 Amazon and 2010 Horn of Africa droughts were detected in the combined real-time and long-term satellite observations. This highlights the potential application of satellite precipitation data for regional to global drought monitoring. The final product is a real-time data-driven satellite-based standardized precipitation index that can be used for drought monitoring especially over remote and/or ungauged regions. (letter)

Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.

2015-12-01

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

Science.gov (United States)

Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

2014-05-01

The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

Science.gov (United States)

Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

2016-12-01

There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

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Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

2016-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

Could the long term cover change of three Mediterranean shrubs be explained by their photosynthetic responses to drought in a rainfall exclusion experiment ?

Science.gov (United States)

Liberati, Dario; De Dato, Giovanbattista; Guidolotti, Gabriele; De Angelis, Paolo

2013-04-01

In the Mediterranean climates water stress is considered to be the main environmental factor limiting plant growth. In front of water limitations plants have developed a wide diversity of adaptation mechanism, and co-occurring species often display different physiological, functional, and life history strategies. In the contest of a rainfall exclusion experiment (project INCREASE), the present work is aimed to assess if the seasonal response of photosynthesis to the water stress (based on gas exchange data collected during 2010) can explain the long term change in the cover degree (assessed by seven pin point survey carried out from 2001 to 2012) of the three main species present in the Italian experimental site, Cistus monspeliensis L. (Cistaceae), Dorycnium pentaphyllum Scop. (Fabaceae) and Helichrysum italicum subsp. microphyllum (Willd.) Nyman (Asteraceae) From 2001 to 2012, in the untreated plots, the cover degree increased in C. monspeliensis (+ 0.34% per year), did not show any significant trend in D. pentaphyllum and decreased in H. italicum (- 1.54% per year). In the same period the rainfall exclusion system has worked during Spring and Autumn, mainly reducing the soil water content of the drought plots in Autumn: this treatment did not affect the cover trend of D. pentaphyllum and H. italicum, whereas C. monspeliensis displayed in the drought plots an opposite dynamic (- 1.23% per year) compared to the natural conditions. During 2010 all monitored species reached the maximum photosynthesis rates in spring, with a depression during summer drought and a recovery after the first Autumn rainfalls. The recovery of the spring rates was almost complete in C. monspeliensis and D. pentaphyllum, while in H. italicum did not exceed the 30% of the spring value. The rainfall exclusion reduced the photosynthesis rates in C. monspeliensis and H. italicum in Autumn. In the control plots the opposite cover trend observed in C. monspeliensis and H.italicum could be

Climatological aspects of drought in Ohio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, J.C.

1993-01-01

Precipitation and Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI) data have been used to identify past occurrences of Ohio drought, to illustrate the temporal variability occurring statewide within dry periods, and to compare some of the key dry spells to those of 1987-88 and 1991-92. Periods of hydrologic drought and low precipitation generally persist for 2 to 5 years and tend to cluster in time, such as occurred from 1930-1966. It is not uncommon for precipitation to return to normal or near normal conditions while short-term drought persists in terms of streamflow, ground water supply, and runoff, as measured by the PHDI. The period April 1930 to March 1931 is the driest on record in Ohio although longer periods of low precipitation have occurred from 1893-1896, 1952-1955, and 1963-1965. The temporal clusters of droughts are separated by prolonged wet periods, including those extending roughly from 1875-1893, 1905-1924, and 1966-1987. Correlations between Ohio monthly precipitation and mean air temperature suggest that drought is linked to unusually high summer temperatures through mechanisms such as increased evapotranspiration, leading to increased fluxes of sensible heat from dry soil surfaces. In winter, warm conditions tend to favor higher precipitation, soil recharge, and runoff. Variations in mean temperature and atmospheric circulation may also be linked to other observed climatic features such as long-term trends in soil-water recharge season (October-March) precipitation

Increasing drought risk in large-dam basins of South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, I. W.; Shin, Y.; Park, J.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

In 2015, South Korea suffered one of the worst droughts in recent years. Seoul and Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces experienced severe drought conditions, receiving less than 43 percent of the annual precipitation average of the past 30 years. Additionally, the 2015 summer precipitation was less than half of the average. The lack of summer precipitation induced serious shortages in dam storages, which are important supplies for the dry season. K-water, a public company managing South Korea's public water supply system, is fighting to secure public water supply and minimize potential damage that may occur before the subsequent wet season. This study detected significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (=dam inflow / precipitation) in three dams basins (Soyang, Chungju, and Andong). Changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices were examined to investigate potential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends. However, there were no clear relations among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of dam operational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understand decreasing runoff rates.AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31-001) from Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security(MPSS) of the Korean government.

Assessing the long-term effects of the Sahel drought on ponds and semi-arid hydrology.

Science.gov (United States)

Gal, L.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Hiernaux, P.; Peugeot, C.; Mougin, E.

2015-12-01

The Sahel underwent a severe rainfall deficit in the late 20th century, with extreme droughts in the early 70s and early 80s. This drought is the strongest multidecadal drought of the 20th century, globally. It has strongly impacted ecosystems, water availability, and populations. However, an increase of surface water has been observed during the same period: higher discharge of Sahelian rivers, and a general increase in pond's surface. This phenomenon, "less rain but more surface runoff", is referred to as the "Sahelian paradox". The causes of this paradox are still debated. The role of the significant increase in cropped areas, often cited for cultivated Sahel, does not hold for pastoral areas in central and northern Sahel. Degradation of vegetation as a result of the drought, soils erosion, may also play an important role. Most Sahelian watersheds are still poorly gauged or ungauged, which makes it difficult to quantify surface runoff and its determinants. A method is developed to estimate runoff over ungauged ponds watersheds. It is tested for the Agoufou pond in the Gourma region in Mali, where in situ data are available for 2007-2014. A 3D model is first developed to relate water volume to height surface. This model is combined with daily evaporation and precipitation, to estimate the water supply to the pond which is a proxy for runoff over the watershed. This model highlights a spectacular increase of the runoff coefficient over the last 60 years. The method is then applied to two ungauged Sahelian watersheds in Mauritania and Niger, where pond surfaces by remote sensing are the only information. The runoff coefficients also increased in the last 60 years over these watersheds. The runoff derived for the Agoufou pond is used to evaluate simulations with the KINEROS2 model. We discuss to what extent the changes in rain intensity, soil hydrological properties and land-use land cover are able to cause the observed change in runoff over the last 60 years.

Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Oliver L; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Lewis, Simon L; Fisher, Joshua B; Lloyd, Jon; López-González, Gabriela; Malhi, Yadvinder; Monteagudo, Abel; Peacock, Julie; Quesada, Carlos A; van der Heijden, Geertje; Almeida, Samuel; Amaral, Iêda; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo; Baker, Tim R; Bánki, Olaf; Blanc, Lilian; Bonal, Damien; Brando, Paulo; Chave, Jerome; de Oliveira, Atila Cristina Alves; Cardozo, Nallaret Dávila; Czimczik, Claudia I; Feldpausch, Ted R; Freitas, Maria Aparecida; Gloor, Emanuel; Higuchi, Niro; Jiménez, Eliana; Lloyd, Gareth; Meir, Patrick; Mendoza, Casimiro; Morel, Alexandra; Neill, David A; Nepstad, Daniel; Patiño, Sandra; Peñuela, Maria Cristina; Prieto, Adriana; Ramírez, Fredy; Schwarz, Michael; Silva, Javier; Silveira, Marcos; Thomas, Anne Sota; Steege, Hans Ter; Stropp, Juliana; Vásquez, Rodolfo; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Alvarez Dávila, Esteban; Andelman, Sandy; Andrade, Ana; Chao, Kuo-Jung; Erwin, Terry; Di Fiore, Anthony; Honorio C, Eurídice; Keeling, Helen; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, William F; Peña Cruz, Antonio; Pitman, Nigel C A; Núñez Vargas, Percy; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Rudas, Agustín; Salamão, Rafael; Silva, Natalino; Terborgh, John; Torres-Lezama, Armando

2009-03-06

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.

Drought in Africa 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dalby, D; Harrison-Church, R J; Berzaz, F [eds.

1977-01-01

The second edition of Drought in Africa is reviewed. The book, which has been greatly expanded, looks at the Sahelian and Ethiopian droughts from a long-term perspective. Among the subjects included are: a description of the meteorological aspects of the drought; changes in animal and human populations; overpopulation of areas of nomadic pastoralism and of crop-producing areas; and mechanisms by which people survived. Cash crops, taxes, the market economy and over-centralized planning receive much of the blame for the effects of the drought.

Long-Term No-Tillage Direct Seeding Mode for Water-Saving and Drought-Resistance Rice Production in Rice-Rapeseed Rotation System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing-bin DU

2014-07-01

Full Text Available To study the effects of long-term no-tillage direct seeding mode on rice yield and the soil physiochemical property in a rice-rapeseed rotation system, a comparative experiment with a water-saving and drought-resistance rice (WDR variety and a double low rapeseed variety as materials was conducted under no-tillage direct seeding (NTDS mode and conventional tillage direct seeding (CTDS mode for four years, using the CTDS mode as the control. Compared with the CTDS mode, the actual rice yield of WDR decreased by 8.10% at the first year, whereas the plant height, spikelet number per panicle, spikelet fertility, 1000-grain weight, grain yield, actual yield, and harvest index increased with no-tillage years, which led to the actual yield increase by 6.49% at the fourth year. Correlation analysis showed that the panicle length was significantly related to the actual yield of WDR. Compared with the CTDS mode in terms of the soil properties, the pH value of the NTDS mode decreased every year, whereas the contents of soil organic matter and total N of the NTDS mode increased. In the 0–5 cm layer of the NTDS mode, the soil bulk decreased, whereas the contents of soil organic matter, total N, and available N increased. In the 5–20 cm layer of the NTDS mode, the available N and K decreased, whereas the soil bulk, contents of soil organic matter, and total N increased. In summary, the NTDS mode increased the rice yield, and could improve the paddy soil fertility of the top layer.

Morphological characteristic of purple long yard bean cultivars and their tolerance to drought stress

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M W Lestari

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The cultivation of purple long yard bean which tolerance to drought stress and have high productivity can improve farming in arid area. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the mechanism of the tolerance purple long yard beans to drought stress based on morphologic characters, to get the hypothesis method of tolerance and to obtain tolerance cultivars to the drought stress. Eight cultivars of purple long yard beans, i.e. UBPHU1-41, UBPHU1-130, UBPU3-153, UBPU1-202, UBPU2-222, UBPU1-365, Brawijaya 4 and Bagong 2, were tested in two environmental conditions, 100% field capacity and 50% field capacity. The results showed that drought stress in purple long yard bean affected all morphological characters observed, except for root length and flowering time. Estimation of tolerance to drought stress using the Principles Component Analysis (PCA showed that the shoot fresh weight could be an indicator of purple pod bean tolerance to drought stress. However, the test using Stress Susceptibility Index (SSI was not able to classify the purple long yard bean tolerance to drought stress. The results of analysis using PCA followed by discriminant analysis and clustering dendrogram showed that the UBPU1-41, UBPU1-130, UBPU2-222, UBPU1-365, UB4 and Bagong 2 cultivars were medium cultivars that are tolerant to drought stress. Therefore, they can be planted in semiarid regions.

Status of Drought and Desertification in Kenya

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutiso, S.K

2001-01-01

The author defined drought in three points of view, viz: agricultural, meteorological and hydrological. All categories of drought are important in the understanding of the society's vulnerability to drought and adjustment mechanisms. Agricultural and hydrological droughts have been shown to have far greater socio-economic and political impacts to people living in the dry lands. methods of predicting drought have been highlighted. Early warning systems should be put in places at District level. Mitigation and rehabilitation of people suffering drought and attendant famine should involve both short term and long term strategies. Rain-harvesting techniques, soil and water conservation, crop water requirement and drought risk forecasting should be carried out along with other measures to combat desrtification

Long-term multifactorial climate change impacts on mesofaunal biomass and nitrogen content

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Mette Vestergård; Dyrnum, Kristine; Michelsen, Anders

2015-01-01

increased at elevated CO2, or tended do so. In contrast, enchytraeid N content decreased at elevated CO2. Soil microbial biomass N pool and litter C:N ratio also increased with elevated CO2, which suggests that mite biomasses are more coupled to microbial biomass, whereas enchytraeid biomass to a larger...... extent is governed by litter nitrogen concentration, i.e. litter quality. Structural equation modelling confirmed the positive coupling between soil microbial N content and oribatid biomass and further between oribatid and mesostigmatic biomass. The SEM also revealed a negative relationship between...... microbial N content and enchytraeid biomass. The biomass of all mesofaunal groups was reduced by spring drought, especially when combined with warming. Enchytraeid and especially collembolan biomass suffered greater drought declines than mite biomasses. We conclude that under long-term elevated CO2 exposure...

Long-term ecophysiological responses to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

Plant physiology is affected by climate change. Acclimations of photosynthetic processes are induced by short-term changes in climatic conditions. Further acclimation can be caused by longterm adjustments to climate change due to ecosystem-feedbacks. The aim of this PhD was to investigate plant...... term responses of plant physiology to the climate change factors were investigated. In the CLIMAITE-experiment it has been shown that 2 years of treatment altered physiological responses in Deschampsiaand Calluna. In the work of this PhD similar responses were observed after 6 years of treatment...... physiological responses to climate change in a seasonal and long-term perspective. The effects of elevated CO2, passive night time warming and periodic summer drought as single factor and in combination, on plant physiology were investigated in the long-term multifactorial field experiment CLIMAITE in a Danish...

The current California drought through EDDI's eyes: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major

Long-Term Visual Training Increases Visual Acuity and Long-Term Monocular Deprivation Promotes Ocular Dominance Plasticity in Adult Standard Cage-Raised Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosang, Leon; Yusifov, Rashad; Löwel, Siegrid

2018-01-01

For routine behavioral tasks, mice predominantly rely on olfactory cues and tactile information. In contrast, their visual capabilities appear rather restricted, raising the question whether they can improve if vision gets more behaviorally relevant. We therefore performed long-term training using the visual water task (VWT): adult standard cage (SC)-raised mice were trained to swim toward a rewarded grating stimulus so that using visual information avoided excessive swimming toward nonrewarded stimuli. Indeed, and in contrast to old mice raised in a generally enriched environment (Greifzu et al., 2016), long-term VWT training increased visual acuity (VA) on average by more than 30% to 0.82 cycles per degree (cyc/deg). In an individual animal, VA even increased to 1.49 cyc/deg, i.e., beyond the rat range of VAs. Since visual experience enhances the spatial frequency threshold of the optomotor (OPT) reflex of the open eye after monocular deprivation (MD), we also quantified monocular vision after VWT training. Monocular VA did not increase reliably, and eye reopening did not initiate a decline to pre-MD values as observed by optomotry; VA values rather increased by continued VWT training. Thus, optomotry and VWT measure different parameters of mouse spatial vision. Finally, we tested whether long-term MD induced ocular dominance (OD) plasticity in the visual cortex of adult [postnatal day (P)162-P182] SC-raised mice. This was indeed the case: 40-50 days of MD induced OD shifts toward the open eye in both VWT-trained and, surprisingly, also in age-matched mice without VWT training. These data indicate that (1) long-term VWT training increases adult mouse VA, and (2) long-term MD induces OD shifts also in adult SC-raised mice.

Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes

Science.gov (United States)

Zipper, Samuel C.; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2016-09-01

Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global food security needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such as drought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to 2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, and yield is most sensitive to short-term (1-3 month) droughts during critical development periods from July to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability, substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central and southeastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustrates fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in crop production is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies that buffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.

Climate and drought

Science.gov (United States)

McNab, Alan L.

Drought is a complex phenomenon that can be defined from several perspectives [Wilhite and Glantz, 1987]. The common characteristic and central idea of these perspectives is the straightforward notion of a water deficit. Complexity arises because of the need to specify the part of the hydrologic cycle experiencing the deficit and the associated time period. For example, a long-term deficit in deep groundwater storage can occur simultaneously with a short-term surplus of root zone soil water.Figure 1 [Changnon, 1987] illustrates how the definitions of drought are related to specific components of the hydrologic cycle. The dashed lines indicate the delayed translation of two hypothetical precipitation deficits with respect to runoff, soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater. From this perspective, precipitation can be considered as the carrier of the drought signal, and hydrological processes are among the final indicators that reveal the presence of drought [Hare, 1987; Klemes, 1987].

Groundwater quality surrounding Lake Texoma during short-term drought conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kampbell, Donald H.; An, Youn-Joo; Jewell, Ken P.; Masoner, Jason R.

2003-01-01

Stressors such as nitrates and total salts in ground water could potentially become a health or environmental problem during drought conditions. - Water quality data from 55 monitoring wells during drought conditions surrounding Lake Texoma, located on the border of Oklahoma and Texas, was compared to assess the influence of drought on groundwater quality. During the drought month of October, water table levels were three feet (0.9 m) lower compared with several months earlier under predrought climate conditions. Detection frequencies of nitrate (> 0.1 mg/l), orthophosphates (> 0.1 mg/l), chlorides (> MCL), and sulfates (> MCL) all increased during drought. Orthophosphate level was higher during drought. Largest increases in concentration were nitrate under both agriculture lands and in septic tank areas. An increase in ammonium-nitrogen was only detected in the septic tank area. The study showed that stressors such as nitrate and total salts could potentially become a health or environmental problem during drought

Drought-induced recharge promotes long-term storage of porewater salinity beneath a prairie wetland

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Zeno F.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Moucha, Robert; Mushet, David M.; Goldhaber, Martin B.; LaBaugh, James W.; Fiorentino, Anthony J.; Siegel, Donald I.

2018-02-01

Subsurface storage of sulfate salts allows closed-basin wetlands in the semiarid Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America to maintain moderate surface water salinity (total dissolved solids [TDS] from 1 to 10 g L-1), which provides critical habitat for communities of aquatic biota. However, it is unclear how the salinity of wetland ponds will respond to a recent shift in mid-continental climate to wetter conditions. To understand better the mechanisms that control surface-subsurface salinity exchanges during regional dry-wet climate cycles, we made a detailed geoelectrical study of a closed-basin prairie wetland (P1 in the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, North Dakota) that is currently experiencing record wet conditions. We found saline lenses of sulfate-rich porewater (TDS > 10 g L-1) contained in fine-grained wetland sediments 2-4 m beneath the bathymetric low of the wetland and within the currently ponded area along the shoreline of a prior pond stand (c. 1983). During the most recent drought (1988-1993), the wetland switched from a groundwater discharge to recharge function, allowing salts dissolved in surface runoff to move into wetland sediments beneath the bathymetric low of the basin. However, groundwater levels during this time did not decline to the elevation of the saline lenses, suggesting these features formed during more extended paleo-droughts and are stable in the subsurface on at least centennial timescales. We hypothesize a "drought-induced recharge" mechanism that allows wetland ponds to maintain moderate salinity under semiarid climate. Discharge of drought-derived saline groundwater has the potential to increase the salinity of wetland ponds during wet climate.

Drought analysis and short-term forecast in the Aison River Basin (Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kavalieratou

2012-05-01

Full Text Available A combined regional drought analysis and forecast is elaborated and applied to the Aison River Basin (Greece. The historical frequency, duration and severity were estimated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI computed on variable time scales, while short-term drought forecast was investigated by means of 3-D loglinear models. A quasi-association model with homogenous diagonal effect was proposed to fit the observed frequencies of class transitions of the SPI values computed on the 12-month time scale. Then, an adapted submodel was selected for each data set through the backward elimination method. The analysis and forecast of the drought class transition probabilities were based on the odds of the expected frequencies, estimated by these submodels, and the respective confidence intervals of these odds. The parsimonious forecast models fitted adequately the observed data. Results gave a comprehensive insight on drought behavior, highlighting a dominant drought period (1988–1991 with extreme drought events and revealing, in most cases, smooth drought class transitions. The proposed approach can be an efficient tool in regional water resources management and short-term drought warning, especially in irrigated districts.

Drought, climate change and vegetation response in the succulent karoo, South Africa

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M. T. Hoffman

2009-12-01

Full Text Available For the winter-rainfall region of South Africa, the frequency of drought is predicted to increase over the next 100 years, with dire consequences for the vegetation of this biodiversity hotspot. We analysed historical 20th century rainfall records for six rainfall stations within the succulent karoo biome to determine if the signal of increasing drought frequency is already apparent, and whether mean annual rainfall is decreasing. We found no evidence for a decrease either in mean annual rainfall or in the incidence of drought, as measured by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI over the 20th century. Evidence points to a drying trend from 1900–1950 while no significant trend in rainfall and drought was found at most stations from 1951–2000. In a second analysis we synthesised the information concerning the response of adult succulent karoo biome plants and seedlings to extended drought conditions. General findings are that responses to drought differ between species, and that longevity is an important life history trait related to drought survival. Growth form is a poor predictor of drought response across the biome. There was a range of responses to drought among adult plants of various growth forms, and among non-succulent seedlings. Leaf-succulent seedlings, however, exhibited phenomenal drought resistance, the majority surviving drought long after all the experimentally comparative non-succulent seedlings had died. Our synthesis showed that previous studies on the impact of drought on succulent karoo biome plants differ greatly in terms of their location, sampling design, measured values and plant responses. A suite of coordinated long-term field observations, experiments and models are therefore needed to assess the response of succulent karoo biome species to key drought events as they occur over time and to integrate this information into conservation planning.

Characterizing drought in terms of changes in the precipitation-runoff relationship: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Xiaoming; Wang, Xiaofeng; Fu, Bojie

2018-03-01

The frequency and intensity of drought are increasing dramatically with global warming. However, few studies have characterized drought in terms of its impacts on ecosystem services, the mechanisms through which ecosystems support life. As a result, little is known about the implications of increased drought for resource management. This case study characterizes drought by linking climate anomalies with changes in the precipitation-runoff relationship (PRR) on the Loess Plateau of China, a water-limited region where ongoing revegetation makes drought a major concern. We analyzed drought events with drought durations ≥ 5 years and mean annual precipitation anomaly (PA) values ≤ -5 % during drought periods. The results show that continuous precipitation shifts are able to change the water balance of watersheds in water-limited areas, and multi-year drought events cause the PRR to change with a significantly decreasing trend (p runoff ratio decreased from 10 to 6.8 % during 1991-1999. The joint probability and return period gradually increase with increasing of drought duration and severity. The ecosystem service of water yield is easily affected by drought events with durations equal to or greater than 6 years and drought severity values equal to or greater than 0.55 (precipitation ≤ 212 mm). At the same time, multi-year drought events also lead to significant changes in the leaf area index (LAI). Such studies are essential for ecosystem management in water-limited areas.

Drought monitoring in the Seybouse basin (Algeria over the last decades

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Khezazna Amina

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Algeria is amongst the African countries most affected by climate change impacts especially by drought which caused considerable economic losses in the past decades. In this paper, drought monitoring for the period between 1970 and 2011 was conducted in the Seybouse watershed by analysing annual rainfall data in terms of variability and trends along with the calculation of the standardized precipitation index (SPI. The results indicated important inter-annual rainfall fluctuation and a significant increasing trend. The estimated drought indices indicated that the Seybouse watershed experienced in the past a long dry period with a moderate severity followed by a long wet period at the majority of the study area. Moreover, the interpolation of the standardized precipitation indices (SPI on the entire Seybouse basin in GIS allowed visualizing and evaluating the spatial-temporal evolution of drought in the region which should help the decision-makers in the management of water resources, agriculture and other activities that may be affected by drought.

A Nucleus-localized Long Non-Coding RNA Enhances Drought and Salt Stress Tolerance

KAUST Repository

Qin, Tao

2017-09-09

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) affect gene expression through a wide range of mechanisms and are considered as important regulators in many essential biological processes. A large number of lncRNA transcripts have been predicted or identified in plants in recent years. However, the biological functions for most of them are still unknown. In this study, we identified an Arabidopsis thaliana lncRNA, Drought induced RNA (DRIR), as a novel positive regulator of plant response to drought and salt stress. DRIR was expressed at a low level under non-stress conditions but can be significantly activated by drought and salt stress as well as by abscisic acid (ABA) treatment. We identified a T-DNA insertion mutant, drirD, which had higher expression of the DRIR gene than the wild type plants. The drirD mutant exhibits increased tolerance to drought and salt stress. Overexpressing DRIR in Arabidopsis also increased tolerance to drought and salt stress of the transgenic plants. The drirD mutant and the overexpressing seedlings are more sensitive to ABA than the wild type in stomata closure and seedling growth. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis demonstrated that the expression of a large number of genes was altered in drirD and the overexpressing plants. These include genes involved in ABA signaling, water transport and other stress-relief processes. Our study reveals a mechanism whereby DRIR regulates plant response to abiotic stress by modulating the expression of a series of genes involved in stress response.

Major losses of nutrients following a severe drought in a boreal forest.

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Houle, Daniel; Lajoie, Geneviève; Duchesne, Louis

2016-11-28

Because of global warming, the frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase, which will have an impact on forest ecosystem health worldwide 1 . Although the impact of drought on tree growth and mortality is being increasingly documented 2-4 , very little is known about the impact on nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems. Here, based on long-term monitoring data, we report nutrient fluxes in a boreal forest before, during and following a severe drought in July 2012. During and shortly after the drought, we observed high throughfall (rain collected below the canopy) concentrations of nutrient base cations (potassium, calcium and magnesium), chlorine, phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), differing by one to two orders of magnitude relative to the long-term normal, and resulting in important canopy losses. The high throughfall fluxes had repercussions in the soil solution at a depth of 30 cm, leading to high DOC, chlorine and potassium concentrations. The net potassium losses (atmospheric deposition minus leaching losses) following the drought were especially important, being the equivalent of nearly 20 years of net losses under 'normal' conditions. Our data show that droughts have unexpected impacts on nutrient cycling through impacts on tree canopy and soils and may lead to important episodes of potassium losses from boreal forest ecosystems. The potassium losses associated with drought will add to those originating from tree harvesting and from forest fires and insect outbreaks 5-7 (with the last two being expected to increase in the future as a result of climate change), and may contribute to reduced potassium availability in boreal forests in a warming world.

Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Lopez-Moreno, Juan-I; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; García-Ruiz, José M; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Revuelto, Jesús; Beguería, Santiago; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trigo, Ricardo; Coelho, Fatima; Espejo, Francisco

2014-01-01

We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to drought-sensitive systems, such as river discharge, by analyzing streamflow data for 287 rivers in the IP, and found that hydrological drought frequency and severity have also increased in the past five decades in natural, regulated and highly regulated basins. Recent positive trend in the atmospheric water demand has had a direct influence on the temporal evolution of streamflows, clearly identified during the warm season, in which higher evapotranspiration rates are recorded. This pattern of increase in evaporative demand and greater drought severity is probably applicable to other semiarid regions of the world, including other Mediterranean areas, the Sahel, southern Australia and South Africa, and can be expected to increasingly compromise water supplies and cause political, social and economic tensions among regions in the near future. (paper)

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

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Wehner, M. F.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human

Development and Application of Improved Long-Term Datasets of Surface Hydrology for Texas

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Kyungtae Lee

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Freshwater availability and agricultural production are key factors for sustaining the fast growing population and economy in the state of Texas, which is the third largest state in terms of agricultural production in the United States. This paper describes a long-term (1918–2011 grid-based (1/8° surface hydrological dataset for Texas at a daily time step based on simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow over 10 Texas river basins. The simulated soil moisture was also evaluated using in situ observations. Results suggest that there is a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in temperature in most of the basins. Droughts and floods were reconstructed and analyzed. In particular, the spatially distributed severity and duration of major Texas droughts were compared to identify new characteristics. The modeled flood recurrence interval and the return period were also compared with observations. Results suggest the performance of extreme flood simulations needs further improvement. This dataset is expected to serve as a benchmark which may contribute to water resources management and to mitigating agricultural drought, especially in the context of understanding the effects of climate change on crop yield in Texas.

Evidence for a Drought-driven (pre-industrial) Regime Shift in an Australian Shallow Lake

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Mills, K.; Gell, P.; Doan, P.; Kershaw, P.; McKenzie, M.; Lewis, T.; Tyler, J. J.

2015-12-01

We present a 750-year record of ecosystem response to long-term drought history from Lake Colac, Victoria. Using multiple lines of evidence, we test the sensitivity and resilience of Lake Colac to independently reconstructed drought history. The sedimentary archive shows that Lake Colac appears to be sensitive to periods of drought. Following drought conditions c. CE 1390, the lake ecosystem indicates signs of recovery. A succession of droughts in the early 1500s initiates a change in the diatom flora, with freshwater species declining and replaced by saline tolerant species, though there is little interpretable change in aquatic palynomorphs. An inferred drought, around CE 1720 appears to precede a major switch in the lake's ecosystem. The lake became increasingly turbid and saline and there is a distinct switch from a macrophyte-dominated system to an algal-dominated system. The arrival of Europeans in Victoria (CE1840) appears to have little effect on the lake's ecosystem, but the terrestrial vegetation indicates regionally established changes including declines in native trees, especially Casuarina, and arrival and expansion of exotic shade or plantation trees Pinus and Cupressus as well as native and introduced weeds. As European impact in the catchment increases, nutrients appear to play a role in the modification of the lake's ecosystem. A long-term drying trend from c. CE 1975 is evident, culminating in the Millennium Drought, which suggests unprecedented conditions in the ecological history of the Lake.

The Applications to Increase Drought Tolerance of Plants

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İlkay Yavaş

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Terminal drought is a major threat that adversely affects crop growth and metabolism, and limits the yield. Water stress causes many morphological, physiological and biochemical changes in plants. Plant height, root length, leaf area, fresh and dry biomass are reduced under drought stress. Besides, water stress causes the reduction of relative water content, the closure of stomata and decrease in photosynthesis and chlorophyll content. Antioxidant enzymes such as glutathione reductase (GR, superoxide dismutase (SOD, peroxidase (POD, ascorbat peroxidase (ASC, glutatiton (GSH, catalase (CAT enzyme activities, the indicator of oxidative stress malondialdehyde (MDA and proline levels also changes in drought conditions. Nutrient uptake by plants is prevented or restricted before grain development stage during drought conditions. Therefore the application of plant nutrients followed by micronutrient remobilization within plant is great importance. Osmoprotectants (cytokinin, mannitol, abscisic acid, proline, glycine betaine, polyamine etc. detoxify adverse effect of reactive oxygen species (ROS and alleviate drought stress. Exogenous plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR application encourage plant growth by colonizing the plant root and increase plants’ resistance to water stress. Besides, the farmers can use conservation tillage system in dry periods.

Characterizing drought in terms of changes in the precipitation–runoff relationship: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

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Y. Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The frequency and intensity of drought are increasing dramatically with global warming. However, few studies have characterized drought in terms of its impacts on ecosystem services, the mechanisms through which ecosystems support life. As a result, little is known about the implications of increased drought for resource management. This case study characterizes drought by linking climate anomalies with changes in the precipitation–runoff relationship (PRR on the Loess Plateau of China, a water-limited region where ongoing revegetation makes drought a major concern. We analyzed drought events with drought durations  ≥  5 years and mean annual precipitation anomaly (PA values  ≤  −5 % during drought periods. The results show that continuous precipitation shifts are able to change the water balance of watersheds in water-limited areas, and multi-year drought events cause the PRR to change with a significantly decreasing trend (p < 0.05 compared to other historical records. For the Loess Plateau as a whole, the average runoff ratio decreased from 10 to 6.8  % during 1991–1999. The joint probability and return period gradually increase with increasing of drought duration and severity. The ecosystem service of water yield is easily affected by drought events with durations equal to or greater than 6 years and drought severity values equal to or greater than 0.55 (precipitation  ≤  212 mm. At the same time, multi-year drought events also lead to significant changes in the leaf area index (LAI. Such studies are essential for ecosystem management in water-limited areas.

Drought episodes over Greece as simulated by dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches

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Anagnostopoulou, Christina

2017-07-01

Drought over the Greek region is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large spatial variability. Dry spells longer than 10 consecutive days mainly characterize the duration and the intensity of Greek drought. Moreover, an increasing trend of the frequency of drought episodes has been observed, especially during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Moreover, the most recent regional circulation models (RCMs) present discrepancies compared to observed precipitation, while they are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation. In this study, both a statistical and a dynamical downscaling approach are used to quantify drought episodes over Greece by simulating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months). A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network is employed for the estimation of SPI over Greece, while this drought index is also estimated using the RCM precipitation for the time period of 1961-1990. Overall, it was found that the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and spatial extent) were well reproduced by the regional climate models for long term drought indices (SPI12) while ANN simulations are better for the short-term drought indices (SPI3).

Adverse effects of increasing drought on air quality via natural processes

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Wang, Yuxuan; Xie, Yuanyu; Dong, Wenhao; Ming, Yi; Wang, Jun; Shen, Lu

2017-10-01

Drought is a recurring extreme of the climate system with well-documented impacts on agriculture and water resources. The strong perturbation of drought to the land biosphere and atmospheric water cycle will affect atmospheric composition, the nature and extent of which are not well understood. Here we present observational evidence that US air quality is significantly correlated with drought severity. Severe droughts during the period of 1990-2014 were found associated with growth-season (March-October) mean enhancements in surface ozone and PM2.5 of 3.5 ppbv (8 %) and 1.6 µg m-3 (17 %), respectively. The pollutant enhancements associated with droughts do not appear to be affected by the decreasing trend of US anthropogenic emissions, indicating natural processes as the primary cause. Elevated ozone and PM2.5 are attributed to the combined effects of drought on deposition, natural emissions (wildfires, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and dust), and chemistry. Most climate-chemistry models are not able to reproduce the observed correlations of ozone and PM2.5 to drought severity. The model deficiencies are partly attributed to the lack of drought-induced changes in land-atmosphere exchanges of reactive gases and particles and misrepresentation of cloud changes under drought conditions. By applying the observed relationships between drought and air pollutants to climate model projected drought occurrences, we estimate an increase of 1-6 % for ground-level O3 and 1-16 % for PM2.5 in the US by 2100 compared to the 2000s due to increasing drought alone. Drought thus poses an important aspect of climate change penalty on air quality, and a better prediction of such effects would require improvements in model processes.

Response of surface and groundwater on meteorological drought in Topla River catchment, Slovakia

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Fendekova, Miriam; Fendek, Marian; Vrablikova, Dana; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Slivova, Valeria; Horvat, Oliver

2016-04-01

Continuously increasing number of drought studies published in scientific journals reflects the attention of the scientific community paid to drought. The fundamental works among many others were published by Yevjevich (1967), Zelenhasic and Salvai (1987), later by Tallaksen and van Lanen Eds. (2004). The aim of the paper was to analyze the response of surface and groundwater to meteorological drought occurrence in the upper and middle part of the Topla River Basin, Slovakia. This catchment belongs to catchments with unfavourable hydrogeological conditions, being built of rocks with quite low permeability. The basin is located in the north-eastern part of Slovakia covering the area of 1050.05 km2. The response was analyzed using precipitation data from the Bardejov station (long-term annual average of 662 mm in 1981 - 2012) and discharge data from two gauging stations - Bardejov and Hanusovce nad Toplou. Data on groundwater head from eight observation wells, located in the catchment, were also used, covering the same observation period. Meteorological drought was estimated using characterisation of the year humidity and SPI index. Hydrological drought was evaluated using the threshold level method and method of sequent peak algorithm, both with the fixed and also variable thresholds. The centroid method of the cluster analysis with the squared Euclidean distance was used for clustering data according to occurrence of drought periods, lasting for 100 days and more. Results of the SPI index showed very good applicability for drought periods identification in the basin. The most pronounced dry periods occurred in 1982 - 1983, 1984, 1998 and 2012 being classified as moderately dry, and also in 1993 - 1994, 2003 - 2004 and 2007 evolving from moderately to severely dry years. Short-term drought prevailed in discharges, only three periods of drought longer than 100 days occurred during the evaluated period in 1986 - 1987, 1997 and 2003 - 2004. Discharge drought in the

Amazon forest response to repeated droughts

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Feldpausch, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Brienen, R. J. W.; Gloor, E.; Lloyd, J.; Lopez-Gonzalez, G.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.; Malhi, Y.; Alarcón, A.; Álvarez Dávila, E.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Andrade, A.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Baker, T. R.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Castro, W.; Chama, V.; Chave, J.; Domingues, T. F.; Fauset, S.; Groot, N.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Laurance, S.; Laurance, W. F.; Lewis, S. L.; Licona, J. C.; Marimon, B. S.; Marimon-Junior, B. H.; Mendoza Bautista, C.; Neill, D. A.; Oliveira, E. A.; Oliveira dos Santos, C.; Pallqui Camacho, N. C.; Pardo-Molina, G.; Prieto, A.; Quesada, C. A.; Ramírez, F.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Réjou-Méchain, M.; Rudas, A.; Saiz, G.; Salomão, R. P.; Silva-Espejo, J. E.; Silveira, M.; ter Steege, H.; Stropp, J.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas-Caesar, R.; van der Heijden, G. M. F.; Vásquez Martinez, R.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V. A.

2016-07-01

The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: -0.43 Mg ha-1, confidence interval (CI): -1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre-2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin-wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (-0.07 Pg C yr-1 CI:-0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land-atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long-term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

Long-term agricultural experiments inform the development of climate-smart agricultural practices

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Kristina Wolf

2017-09-01

Full Text Available California's Mediterranean agro-ecosystems are a major source of U.S. fruits and vegetables, and vulnerable to future extremes of precipitation and temperature brought on by climate change, including increased drought and flooding, and more intense and longer heat waves. To develop resilience to these threats, strategies are necessary for climate-smart management of soil and water. Long-term, large-scale, replicated ecological experiments provide unique testbeds for studying such questions. At the UC Davis Russell Ranch Sustainable Agriculture Facility (RRSAF, the 100-year Century Experiment, initiated in 1992, is investigating the effects of multiple farming practices in a farm-scale replicated study of 10 row crop cropping systems. It includes different fertility management systems: organic, conventional and hybrid (conventional plus winter cover crop systems; different crops: wheat, tomatoes, corn, alfalfa, cover crops and grasslands; and different irrigation systems: rainfed, flood irrigated and drip irrigated. We briefly describe and report on a selection of long-term experiments conducted at RRSAF investigating soil management and irrigation practices, which are an important focus for developing climate-smart strategies in Mediterranean systems. For example, long-term monitoring of soil carbon content revealed that most crop systems have experienced a small increase in soil carbon since 1993, and increases in organically managed plots were substantially higher. As RRSAF continues to build upon this rich dataset from one of a very few long-term row crop experiments in Mediterranean ecosystems, it provides a testbed for identifying climate-smart solutions for these agronomically important ecosystems.

Calcium- and Phosphorus-Supplemented Diet Increases Bone Mass after Short-Term Exercise and Increases Bone Mass and Structural Strength after Long-Term Exercise in Adult Mice

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Michael A.; Bailey, Alyssa M.; Rondon, Matthew J.; McNerny, Erin M.; Sahar, Nadder D.; Kohn, David H.

2016-01-01

Exercise has long-lasting benefits to bone health that may help prevent fractures by increasing bone mass, bone strength, and tissue quality. Long-term exercise of 6–12 weeks in rodents increases bone mass and bone strength. However, in growing mice, a short-term exercise program of 3 weeks can limit increases in bone mass and structural strength, compared to non-exercised controls. Short-term exercise can, however, increase tissue strength, suggesting that exercise may create competition for minerals that favors initially improving tissue-level properties over structural-level properties. It was therefore hypothesized that adding calcium and phosphorus supplements to the diet may prevent decreases in bone mass and structural strength during a short-term exercise program, while leading to greater bone mass and structural strength than exercise alone after a long-term exercise program. A short-term exercise experiment was done for 3 weeks, and a long-term exercise experiment was done for 8 weeks. For each experiment, male 16-week old C57BL/6 mice were assigned to 4 weight-matched groups–exercise and non-exercise groups fed a control or mineral-supplemented diet. Exercise consisted of treadmill running at 12 m/min, 30 min/day for 7 days/week. After 3 weeks, exercised mice fed the supplemented diet had significantly increased tibial tissue mineral content (TMC) and cross-sectional area over exercised mice fed the control diet. After 8 weeks, tibial TMC, cross-sectional area, yield force, and ultimate force were greater from the combined treatments than from either exercise or supplemented diet alone. Serum markers of bone formation (PINP) and resorption (CTX) were both decreased by exercise on day 2. In exercised mice, day 2 PINP was significantly positively correlated with day 2 serum Ca, a correlation that was weaker and negative in non-exercised mice. Increasing dietary mineral consumption during an exercise program increases bone mass after 3 weeks and

Calcium- and Phosphorus-Supplemented Diet Increases Bone Mass after Short-Term Exercise and Increases Bone Mass and Structural Strength after Long-Term Exercise in Adult Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Michael A; Bailey, Alyssa M; Rondon, Matthew J; McNerny, Erin M; Sahar, Nadder D; Kohn, David H

2016-01-01

Exercise has long-lasting benefits to bone health that may help prevent fractures by increasing bone mass, bone strength, and tissue quality. Long-term exercise of 6-12 weeks in rodents increases bone mass and bone strength. However, in growing mice, a short-term exercise program of 3 weeks can limit increases in bone mass and structural strength, compared to non-exercised controls. Short-term exercise can, however, increase tissue strength, suggesting that exercise may create competition for minerals that favors initially improving tissue-level properties over structural-level properties. It was therefore hypothesized that adding calcium and phosphorus supplements to the diet may prevent decreases in bone mass and structural strength during a short-term exercise program, while leading to greater bone mass and structural strength than exercise alone after a long-term exercise program. A short-term exercise experiment was done for 3 weeks, and a long-term exercise experiment was done for 8 weeks. For each experiment, male 16-week old C57BL/6 mice were assigned to 4 weight-matched groups-exercise and non-exercise groups fed a control or mineral-supplemented diet. Exercise consisted of treadmill running at 12 m/min, 30 min/day for 7 days/week. After 3 weeks, exercised mice fed the supplemented diet had significantly increased tibial tissue mineral content (TMC) and cross-sectional area over exercised mice fed the control diet. After 8 weeks, tibial TMC, cross-sectional area, yield force, and ultimate force were greater from the combined treatments than from either exercise or supplemented diet alone. Serum markers of bone formation (PINP) and resorption (CTX) were both decreased by exercise on day 2. In exercised mice, day 2 PINP was significantly positively correlated with day 2 serum Ca, a correlation that was weaker and negative in non-exercised mice. Increasing dietary mineral consumption during an exercise program increases bone mass after 3 weeks and increases

Long-term intensive management increased carbon occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) in bamboo forest soils

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Huang, Zhang-Ting; Li, Yong-Fu; Jiang, Pei-Kun; Chang, Scott X.; Song, Zhao-Liang; Liu, Juan; Zhou, Guo-Mo

2014-01-01

Carbon (C) occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) is highly stable at millennium scale and its accumulation in soils can help increase long-term C sequestration. Here, we report that soil PhytOC storage significantly increased with increasing duration under intensive management (mulching and fertilization) in Lei bamboo (Phyllostachys praecox) plantations. The PhytOC storage in 0-40 cm soil layer in bamboo plantations increased by 217 Mg C ha-1, 20 years after being converted from paddy fields. The PhytOC accumulated at 79 kg C ha-1 yr-1, a rate far exceeding the global mean long-term soil C accumulation rate of 24 kg C ha-1 yr-1 reported in the literature. Approximately 86% of the increased PhytOC came from the large amount of mulch applied. Our data clearly demonstrate the decadal scale management effect on PhytOC accumulation, suggesting that heavy mulching is a potential method for increasing long-term organic C storage in soils for mitigating global climate change.

Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Run; Xiong, Ming; Su, Buda; Fischer, Thomas

2018-01-01

In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at

Are Scots pine forest edges particularly prone to drought-induced mortality?

Science.gov (United States)

Buras, Allan; Schunk, Christian; Zeiträg, Claudia; Herrmann, Corinna; Kaiser, Laura; Lemme, Hannes; Straub, Christoph; Taeger, Steffen; Gößwein, Sebastian; Klemmt, Hans-Joachim; Menzel, Annette

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency of drought-induced tree mortality world-wide. To better predict the associated change of species composition and forest dynamics on various scales and develop adequate adaptation strategies, more information on the mechanisms driving the often observed patchiness of tree die-back is needed. Although forest-edge effects may play an important role within the given context, only few corresponding studies exist. Here, we investigate the regional die-back of Scots pine in Franconia, Germany, after a hot and dry summer in 2015, thereby emphasizing possible differences in mortality between forest edge and interior. By means of dendroecological investigations and close-range remote sensing, we assess long-term growth performance and current tree vitality along five different forest-edge distance gradients. Our results clearly indicate a differing growth performance between edge and interior trees, associated with a higher vulnerability to drought, increased mortality rates, and lower tree vitality at the forest edge. Prior long-lasting growth decline of dead trees compared to live trees suggests depletion of carbon reserves in course of a long-term drought persisting since the 1990s to be the cause of regional Scots pine die-back. These findings highlight the forest edge as a potential focal point of forest management adaptation strategies in the context of drought-induced mortality.

Short term response of a peatland to warming and drought - climate manipulation experiment in W Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Juszczak, Radosław; Chojnicki, Bogdan; Urbaniak, Marek; Leśny, Jacek; Silvennoinen, Hanna; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Basińska, Anna; Gąbka, Maciej; Stróżecki, Marcin; Samson, Mateusz; Łuców, Dominika; Józefczyk, Damian; Hoffmann, Mathias; Olejnik, Janusz

2016-04-01

conditions led to increases in NDVI and LAI, whilst the site exposed to only drought exhibited the lowest LAI. Warming shifted the vegetation species composition by promoting vascular plants (mainly Carex rostrata and C. limosa), which result also correlates positively with nutrient (Ptot, Mn, F, Na, Zn) availability in the peat water. Here, we report short-term responses to increased temperature and diminished precipitation, showing that the combination of these to stressors leads to very different scenario than their individual impacts. Our results further emphasize the need for long term records from field manipulation site on peatland response to climate changes. The Research was co-founded by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development within the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme within the WETMAN project (Central European Wetland Ecosystem Feedbacks to Changing Climate - Field Scale Manipulation, Project ID: 203258, contract No. Pol-Nor/203258/31/2013 (www.wetman.pl). References Fenner N., Freeman Ch. (2011). Nature Geoscience, 4, 895-900 Hoffmann M., et al. (2015). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 200, 30-45 Kimball BA. (2005). Global Change Biology, 11, 2041-2056

Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

2015-04-01

Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

­­Drought, water conservation, and water demand rebound in California

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, P.; Ajami, N.

2017-12-01

There is growing recognition that dynamic community values, preferences, and water use behaviors are important drivers of water demand in addition to external factors such as temperature and precipitation. Water demand drivers have been extensively studied, yet they have traditionally been applied to models that assume static conditions and usually do not account for potential societal changes in response to increased scarcity awareness. For example, following a period of sustained low demand such as during a drought, communities often increase water use during a hydrologically wet period, a phenomenon known as "rebounding" water use. Yet previous experiences show the extent of this rebound is not a straightforward function of policy and efficiency improvements, but may also reflect short-term or long-lasting change in community behavior, which are not easily captured by models that assume stationarity. In this study we explore cycles of decreased water demand during drought and subsequent water use rebound observed in California in recent decades. We have developed a novel dynamic system model for water demand in three diverse but interconnected service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area, exposing local trends of changing water use behaviors and long-term impacts on water demand since 1980 to the present. In this model, we apply the concept of social memory, defined as a community's inherited knowledge about hazardous events or degraded environmental conditions from past experiences. While this concept has been applied to further conceptual understanding of socio-hydrologic systems in response to hydrological extremes, to the best of our knowledge this the first study to incorporate social memory to model the water demand rebound phenomenon and to use such a model in the examination of changing dynamics validated by historical data. In addition, we take a closer look at water demand during the recent historic drought in California from 2012-16, and relate our

Time-dependent effects of climate and drought on tree growth in a Neotropical dry forest: Short-term tolerance vs. long-term sensitivity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mendivelso, H.A.; Camarero, J.J.; Gutierrez, E.; Zuidema, P.

2014-01-01

We analyzed the effects of climate and drought on radial growth using dendrochronology in seven deciduous tree species coexisting in a Bolivian tropical dry forest subjected to seasonal drought. Precipitation, temperature and a multiscalar drought index were related to tree-ring width data at

Plasticity in leaf-level water relations of tropical rainforest trees in response to experimental drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Binks, Oliver; Meir, Patrick; Rowland, Lucy; da Costa, Antonio Carlos Lola; Vasconcelos, Steel Silva; de Oliveira, Alex Antonio Ribeiro; Ferreira, Leandro; Christoffersen, Bradley; Nardini, Andrea; Mencuccini, Maurizio

2016-07-01

The tropics are predicted to become warmer and drier, and understanding the sensitivity of tree species to drought is important for characterizing the risk to forests of climate change. This study makes use of a long-term drought experiment in the Amazon rainforest to evaluate the role of leaf-level water relations, leaf anatomy and their plasticity in response to drought in six tree genera. The variables (osmotic potential at full turgor, turgor loss point, capacitance, elastic modulus, relative water content and saturated water content) were compared between seasons and between plots (control and through-fall exclusion) enabling a comparison between short- and long-term plasticity in traits. Leaf anatomical traits were correlated with water relation parameters to determine whether water relations differed among tissues. The key findings were: osmotic adjustment occurred in response to the long-term drought treatment; species resistant to drought stress showed less osmotic adjustment than drought-sensitive species; and water relation traits were correlated with tissue properties, especially the thickness of the abaxial epidermis and the spongy mesophyll. These findings demonstrate that cell-level water relation traits can acclimate to long-term water stress, and highlight the limitations of extrapolating the results of short-term studies to temporal scales associated with climate change. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

DROUGHT FORECASTING BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING OF REMOTE SENSING AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Rhee

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The reduction of drought impacts may be achieved through sustainable drought management and proactive measures against drought disaster. Accurate and timely provision of drought information is essential. In this study, drought forecasting models to provide high-resolution drought information based on drought indicators for ungauged areas were developed. The developed models predict drought indices of the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6 and the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6. An interpolation method based on multiquadric spline interpolation method as well as three machine learning models were tested. Three machine learning models of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extremely Randomized Trees were tested to enhance the provision of drought initial conditions based on remote sensing data, since initial conditions is one of the most important factors for drought forecasting. Machine learning-based methods performed better than interpolation methods for both classification and regression, and the methods using climatology data outperformed the methods using long-range forecast. The model based on climatological data and the machine learning method outperformed overall.

Dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Neman river basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimkus, Egidijus; Stonevičius, Edvinas; Kažys, Justas; Valiuškevičius, Gintaras; Korneev, Vladimir; Pakhomau, Aliaksandr

2013-01-01

The analysis of drought dynamics in the Neman river basin allows an assessment of extreme regional climate changes. Meteorological and hydrological warm period droughts were analyzed in this study. Meteorological droughts were identified using the standardized precipitation index, and hydrological droughts using the streamflow drought index. The whole river basin was analyzed over the period from 1961 to 2010. Precipitation data from Vilnius meteorological station (from 1887) and discharge data from Smalininkai (Neman) hydrological station (from 1811) were used for an evaluation of meteorological and hydrological drought recurrence over a long-term period. It was found that the total area dryness has decreased over the last 50 years. A statistically significant increase in standardized precipitation index values was observed in some river sub-basins. An analysis of drought recurrence dynamics showed that there was no indication that the number of dangerous drought was increased. It was determined that the standardized precipitation index cannot successfully identify the hydrological summer droughts in an area where the spring snowmelt forms a large part of the annual flow. In particular, the weak relationship between the indices was recorded in the first half of the summer, when a large part of the river runoff depends on accumulated water during the spring thaw. (letter)

Overexpression of CaDSR6 increases tolerance to drought and salt stresses in transgenic Arabidopsis plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eun Yu; Seo, Young Sam; Park, Ki Youl; Kim, Soo Jin; Kim, Woo Taek

2014-11-15

The partial CaDSR6 (Capsicum annuum Drought Stress Responsive 6) cDNA was previously identified as a drought-induced gene in hot pepper root tissues. However, the cellular role of CaDSR6 with regard to drought stress tolerance was unknown. In this report, full-length CaDSR6 cDNA was isolated. The deduced CaDSR6 protein was composed of 234 amino acids and contained an approximately 30 amino acid-long Asp-rich domain in its central region. This Asp-rich domain was highly conserved in all plant DSR6 homologs identified and shared a sequence identity with the N-terminal regions of yeast p23(fyp) and human hTCTP, which contain Rab protein binding sites. Transgenic Arabidopsis plants overexpressing CaDSR6 (35S:CaDSR6-sGFP) were tolerant to high salinity, as identified by more vigorous root growth and higher levels of total chlorophyll than wild type plants. CaDSR6-overexpressors were also more tolerant to drought stress compared to wild type plants. The 35S:CaDSR6-sGFP leaves retained their water content and chlorophyll more efficiently than wild type leaves in response to dehydration stress. The expression of drought-induced marker genes, such as RD20, RD22, RD26, RD29A, RD29B, RAB18, KIN2, ABF3, and ABI5, was markedly increased in CaDSR6-overexpressing plants relative to wild type plants under both normal and drought conditions. These results suggest that overexpression of CaDSR6 is associated with increased levels of stress-induced genes, which, in turn, conferred a drought tolerant phenotype in transgenic Arabidopsis plants. Overall, our data suggest that CaDSR6 plays a positive role in the response to drought and salt stresses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Drought in North Darfur Region of Sudan: Application of the DPSIR Framework on Long Term Data

Science.gov (United States)

Mohmmed, Alnail; Zhange, Ke; Makomere, Reuben; Twecan, Dalson; Mohamme, Mustafa

2017-04-01

Darfur region in western Sudan is located in one of the world's most inhospitable environments, adjacent to the Sahara desert, conflicts and drought have severely degraded this fragile area, devastating the environment, livestock and people. Northern Darfur is bedeviled with frequent drought due to insufficient water resources, high summer temperatures, and poor precipitation. Monitoring drought and providing timely seasonal predictions is important for integrated drought risk reduction in the region. This paper evaluates drought conditions in North Darfur by applying meteorological, remote sensing and crop production data, as well as the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impacts-Response (DPSIR) assessment framework. Interviews, group discussions and participant observations were conducted in order to understand the DPSIR framework indicators. The relationship between the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Soil Moisture Content Index (SMCI) were evaluated utilizing data from all five North Darfur counties during 10 growing seasons (2004-2013). Our results showed a strong correlation between RDI, VCI, and SMAI. Also, a significant agreement was noticed between Yield Anomaly Index (YAI) and Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). Generally, a high correlation coefficient was obtained between the meteorology drought index and remote sensing indices, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the above indices for evaluating agricultural drought in the sub-Saharan area. Keywords: Drought; Vegetation Condition Index; Reconnaissance Drought Index; Soil Moisture Content Index; North Darfur.

Institutional adaptation to drought: the case of Fars Agricultural Organization.

Science.gov (United States)

Keshavarz, Marzieh; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-09-30

Recurrent droughts in arid and semi-arid regions are already rendering agricultural production, mainstay of subsistence livelihoods, uncertain. In order to mitigate the impact of drought, agricultural organizations must increase their capacity to adapt. Institutional adaptation refers to the creation of an effective, long-term government institution or set of institutions in charge of planning and policy, and its capacity to develop, revise, and execute drought policies. Using the Fars Agricultural Organization in Iran, as a case study, this paper explores the institutional capacities and capabilities, necessary to adapt to the drought conditions. The STAIR model was used as a conceptual tool, and the Bayesian network and Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modeling was applied to explain the mechanisms by which organizational capacities influence drought management. A survey of 309 randomly selected managers and specialists indicated serious weaknesses in the ability of the organization to apply adaptation strategies effectively. Analysis of the causal models illustrated that organizational culture and resources and infrastructure significantly influenced drought management performance. Moreover, managers and specialists perceived human resources and strategy, goals, and action plan, respectively, as the main drivers of institutional adaptation to drought conditions. Recommendations and implications for drought management policy are offered to increase organizational adaptation to drought and reduce the subsequent sufferings. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mathematical approach to increasing the long-term wealth of an agricultural enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Theron

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on developing an agricultural investment model based upon proven financial investment portfolio techniques. The model can be used as a tool to diversify agricultural risk over the long-term by optimising the proportion of land allocated to each of the agricultural products, resulting in increased value of the agricultural enterprise. Sensitivity analysis allows the strategist to understand the impact that future prices, gross margins and land availability may have on the long-term sustainability of the farming enterprise.

SDI and Markov Chains for Regional Drought Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Feng Yeh

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In recent years, global climate change has altered precipitation patterns, causing uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation that gradually induces precipitation polarization phenomena. Taiwan is located in the subtropical climate zone, with distinct wet and dry seasons, which makes the polarization phenomenon more obvious; this has also led to a large difference between river flows during the wet and dry seasons, which is significantly influenced by precipitation, resulting in hydrological drought. Therefore, to effectively address the growing issue of water shortages, it is necessary to explore and assess the drought characteristics of river systems. In this study, the drought characteristics of northern Taiwan were studied using the streamflow drought index (SDI and Markov chains. Analysis results showed that the year 2002 was a turning point for drought severity in both the Lanyang River and Yilan River basins; the severity of rain events in the Lanyang River basin increased after 2002, and the severity of drought events in the Yilan River basin exhibited a gradual upward trend. In the study of drought severity, analysis results from periods of three months (November to January and six months (November to April have shown significant drought characteristics. In addition, analysis of drought occurrence probabilities using the method of Markov chains has shown that the occurrence probabilities of drought events are higher in the Lanyang River basin than in the Yilan River basin; particularly for extreme events, the occurrence probability of an extreme drought event is 20.6% during the dry season (November to April in the Lanyang River basin, and 3.4% in the Yilan River basin. This study shows that for analysis of drought/wet occurrence probabilities, the results obtained for the drought frequency and occurrence probability using short-term data with the method of Markov chains can be used to predict the long-term occurrence

Is Managed Wildfire Protecting Yosemite National Park from Drought?

Science.gov (United States)

Boisrame, G. F. S.; Thompson, S. E.; Stephens, S.; Collins, B.; Kelly, M.; Tague, N.

2016-12-01

Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the Western US. This project explores the potential of managed wildfire - a forest management strategy in which fires caused by lightning are allowed to burn naturally as long as certain safety parameters are met - to reverse the effects of fire suppression. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover and increasing meadow and shrubland areas. We have collected evidence from field measurements and remote sensing which suggest that managed wildfire increases landscape and hydrologic heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances such as fire and drought. Vegetation maps created from aerial photos show an increase in landscape heterogeneity following the introduction of managed wildfire. Soil moisture observations during the drought years of 2013-2016 suggest that transitions from dense forest to shrublands or meadows can increase summer soil moisture. In the winter of 2015-2016, snow depth measurements showed deeper spring snowpacks in burned areas compared to dense forests. Our study provides a unique view of relatively long-term effects of managed wildfire on vegetation change, ecohydrology, and drought resistance. Understanding these effects is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted, and as the likelihood of both drought and wildfire increases.

Contrasting impacts of continuous moderate drought and episodic severe droughts on the aboveground-biomass increment and litterfall of three coexisting Mediterranean woody species.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Daijun; Ogaya, Romà; Barbeta, Adrià; Yang, Xiaohong; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-11-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the aridity in the Mediterranean Basin and severely affect forest productivity and composition. The responses of forests to different timescales of drought, however, are still poorly understood because extreme and persistent moderate droughts can produce nonlinear responses in plants. We conducted a rainfall-manipulation experiment in a Mediterranean forest dominated by Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo in the Prades Mountains in southern Catalonia from 1999 to 2014. The experimental drought significantly decreased forest aboveground-biomass increment (ABI), tended to increase the litterfall, and decreased aboveground net primary production throughout the 15 years of the study. The responses to the experimental drought were highly species-specific. A. unedo suffered a significant reduction in ABI, Q. ilex experienced a decrease during the early experiment (1999-2003) and in the extreme droughts of 2005-2006 and 2011-2012, and P. latifolia was unaffected by the treatment. The drought treatment significantly increased branch litterfall, especially in the extremely dry year of 2011, and also increased overall leaf litterfall. The drought treatment reduced the fruit production of Q. ilex, which affected seedling recruitment. The ABIs of all species were highly correlated with SPEI in early spring, whereas the branch litterfalls were better correlated with summer SPEIs and the leaf and fruit litterfalls were better correlated with autumn SPEIs. These species-specific responses indicated that the dominant species (Q. ilex) could be partially replaced by the drought-resistant species (P. latifolia). However, the results of this long-term study also suggest that the effect of drought treatment has been dampened over time, probably due to a combination of demographic compensation, morphological and physiological acclimation, and epigenetic changes. However, the structure of community (e.g., species composition

Long term self esteem assessment after height increase by lengthening and then nailing.

Science.gov (United States)

Emara, K; Al Kersh, M A; Emara, A K

2017-03-01

The purpose of the study is to assess the long term psychosocial functioning after height increase, using the external fixation then nailing method. Rosenberg Self-esteem scale and a questionnaire to assess social functioning were completed by 28 patients both preoperatively and at a mean follow-up of 7 years. The mean total score of RSE self-esteem for the 28 patients before lengthening was 21.5 (SD 1.03) (20-24). The mean total score of RSE for the patients 1 year after lengthening was 22 (SD 1.17) (20-24) with highly significant difference (p = 0.002).The mean total RSE self-esteem score after 7 years was 21.7 (SD 1.12) (21-25) with no significant difference (p = 0.11) Improvement was an evident in the short term self esteem after 1 year of follow up of the patients with height increase. On the other hand, there was an evident deterioration in the long term psychosocial evaluation during follow up after 7 years of height increase, returning to near pre-operative levels of self esteem.

Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

Science.gov (United States)

Gleason, Kelly; Bradford, John B.; Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Tony; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael; Iverson, Louis R.; Kenefic, Laura; Kern, Christel C.

2017-01-01

Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

Effects of long-term price increases for oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voehringer, F.; Mueller, A.; Boehringer, C.

2007-03-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the effects of higher oil prices in the long-term. Scenarios examined include those with high oil prices of 80 to 140 dollars per barrel and those with drastic shortages resulting from peak extraction in the years 2010 and 2020. Long-term economic balances form the basis of the report, short-term influences and psychological effects are not addressed. The possible dangers for the earth's climate caused by the substitution of oil by coal-based products are discussed, as well as the sequestration of carbon dioxide. Ethanol and the associated conflicts of land use are examined and the decreasing cost-effectiveness of co-generation power generation is looked at. Alternatives such as atomic power, hydropower, solar energy, geothermal energy, biogas and wind power are discussed. The effect of the changing energy scene on economic growth and welfare aspects in Switzerland are examined. The authors conclude that high oil prices have considerable impacts on the economy and are not a substitute for an internationally co-ordinated climate policy

On the use of Standardized Drought Indices under decadal climate variability: Critical assessment and drought policy implications

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez, J.; Rivera, D.; Oyarzún, R.; Arumí, J. L.

2014-09-01

Since the recent High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy held in Geneva in 2013, a greater concern about the creation and adaptation of national drought monitoring systems is expected. Consequently, backed by international recommendations, the use of Standardized Drought Indices (SDI), such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), as an operational basis of drought monitoring systems has been increasing in many parts of the world. Recommendations for the use of the SPI, and consequently, those indices that share its properties, do not take into account the limitations that this type of index can exhibit under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. These limitations are fundamentally related to the lack of consistency among the operational definition expressed by this type of index, the conceptual definition with which it is associated and the political definition it supports. Furthermore, the limitations found are not overcome by the recommendations for their application. This conclusion is supported by the long-term study of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) in the arid north-central region of Chile, under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. The implications of the findings of the study are discussed with regard to their link to aspects of drought policy in the cases of Australia, the United States and Chile.

Droughts may increase susceptibility of prairie dogs to fleas: Incongruity with hypothesized mechanisms of plague cycles in rodents

Science.gov (United States)

Eads, David A.; Biggins, Dean E.; Long, Dustin H.; Gage, Kenneth L.; Antolin, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Plague is a reemerging, rodent-associated zoonosis caused by the flea-borne bacterium Yersinia pestis. As a vector-borne disease, rates of plague transmission may increase when fleas are abundant. Fleas are highly susceptible to desiccation under hot-dry conditions; we posited that their densities decline during droughts. We evaluated this hypothesis with black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) in New Mexico, June–August 2010–2012. Precipitation was relatively plentiful during 2010 and 2012 but scarce during 2011, the driest spring–summer on record for the northeastern grasslands of New Mexico. Unexpectedly, fleas were 200% more abundant in 2011 than in 2010 and 2012. Prairie dogs were in 27% better condition during 2010 and 2012, and they devoted 287% more time to grooming in 2012 than in 2011. During 2012, prairie dogs provided with supplemental food and water were in 23% better condition and carried 40% fewer fleas. Collectively, these results suggest that during dry years, prairie dogs are limited by food and water, and they exhibit weakened defenses against fleas. Long-term data are needed to evaluate the generality of whether droughts increase flea densities and how changes in flea abundance during sequences of dry and wet years might affect plague cycles in mammalian hosts.

Applying a Dynamic Stomatal Optimization to Predict Shifts in the Functional Composition of Tropical Forests Under Increased Drought And CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, M. K.; Detto, M.; Pacala, S. W.

2017-12-01

The accurate prediction of tropical forest carbon fluxes is key to forecasting global climate, but forest responses to projected increases in CO2 and drought are highly uncertain. Here we present a dynamic optimization that derives the trajectory of stomatal conductance (gs) during drought, a key source of model uncertainty, from plant and soil water relations and the carbon economy of the plant hydraulic system. This optimization scheme is novel in two ways. First, by accounting for the ability of capacitance (i.e., the release of water from plant storage tissue; C) to buffer evaporative water loss and maintain gs during drought, this optimization captures both drought tolerant and avoidant hydraulic strategies. Second, by determining the optimal trajectory of plant and soil water potentials, this optimization quantifies species' impacts on the water available to competing plants. These advances allowed us to apply this optimization across the range of physiology trait values observed in tropical species to evaluate shifts in the competitively optimal trait values, or evolutionarily stable hydraulic strategy (ESS), under increased drought and CO2. Increasing the length of the dry season shifted the ESS towards more drought tolerant, rather than avoidant, trait values, and these shifts were larger for longer individual drought periods (i.e., more consecutive days without rainfall), even if the total time spent in drought was the same. Concurrently doubling the CO2 level reduced the magnitude of these shifts and slightly favored drought avoidant strategies under wet conditions. Overall, these analyses predicted that short, frequent droughts would allow elevated CO2 to shift the functional composition in tropical forests towards more drought avoidant species, while infrequent but long drought periods would shift the ESS to more drought tolerant trait values, despite increased CO2. Overall, these analyses quantified the impact of physiology traits on plant performance

The aftermath of the 1972-74 drought in Nigeria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

van Apeldoorn, G J [ed.

1976-01-01

The Aftermath of the 1972-74 Drought in Nigeria is concerned with solutions to the problems associated with droughts. Case studies on small-farmers responses and attitudes to drought are included and a recurrent theme is the need to use these skills to encourage self reliance at the farm and village levels. Trees, particularly as shelter-belts are advocated, as in the provision of supplementary feed reserves for livestock. The use of groundwater as a drought reserve is discussed. A large section is devoted to the description of completed or projected irrigation schemes. Drought forecasting is briefly covered and the planning aspects of drought preparedness viewed from both theoretical and practical standpoints. Finally two valuable papers discuss the long-term storage of grain, one at national level and one at village level. The reviewer suggests that large-scale irrigation schemes will prove to be very expensive and will be less effective than low-technology, low water-use, low-cost development designed to supplement inadequate rainfall; i.e., life-saving irrigation. In addition, the book failed to adequately discuss the importance of providing small-scale farmers with the information that would maximize production, insure long-term storage and a guaranteed market at a reasonable price.

PKA increases in the olfactory bulb act as unconditioned stimuli and provide evidence for parallel memory systems: pairing odor with increased PKA creates intermediate- and long-term, but not short-term, memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimes, Matthew T; Harley, Carolyn W; Darby-King, Andrea; McLean, John H

2012-02-21

Neonatal odor-preference memory in rat pups is a well-defined associative mammalian memory model dependent on cAMP. Previous work from this laboratory demonstrates three phases of neonatal odor-preference memory: short-term (translation-independent), intermediate-term (translation-dependent), and long-term (transcription- and translation-dependent). Here, we use neonatal odor-preference learning to explore the role of olfactory bulb PKA in these three phases of mammalian memory. PKA activity increased normally in learning animals 10 min after a single training trial. Inhibition of PKA by Rp-cAMPs blocked intermediate-term and long-term memory, with no effect on short-term memory. PKA inhibition also prevented learning-associated CREB phosphorylation, a transcription factor implicated in long-term memory. When long-term memory was rescued through increased β-adrenoceptor activation, CREB phosphorylation was restored. Intermediate-term and long-term, but not short-term odor-preference memories were generated by pairing odor with direct PKA activation using intrabulbar Sp-cAMPs, which bypasses β-adrenoceptor activation. Higher levels of Sp-cAMPs enhanced memory by extending normal 24-h retention to 48-72 h. These results suggest that increased bulbar PKA is necessary and sufficient for the induction of intermediate-term and long-term odor-preference memory, and suggest that PKA activation levels also modulate memory duration. However, short-term memory appears to use molecular mechanisms other than the PKA/CREB pathway. These mechanisms, which are also recruited by β-adrenoceptor activation, must operate in parallel with PKA activation.

Overcoming Uncertainty with Help From Citizens: ISeeChange Case Studies on Urban Flooding, Indoor Heat waves, and Drought to Inform Resilience Efforts, Hazard Mitigation, and Long-term Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Drapkin, J. K.; Wagner, L.

2017-12-01

When it comes to the impacts of weather and climate, the granular local data and context needed to inform infrastructure decisions, hazard mitigation efforts, and long-term planning can't be scraped from satellites, remote sensing, or radar data. This is particularly the case with respect to the heat inside people's homes, local street flooding, and landscapes historically unaccustomed to drought conditions. ISeeChange is developing tools that empower citizens, scientists, city planners, journalists, and local community groups to collaborate and iteratively fill-in crucial data gaps as conditions change in real time. ISeeChange connects the public with national media, scientists, and data tools that support community dialogue and enable collaborative science and journalism investigations about our changing environment. ISeeChange's app and platform serve as the center of several on- the-ground community pilot initiatives in cities around the country addressing urban heat, flooding, and drought. Results from ISeeChange investigations suggest that indoor temperatures in Harlem are 7-8 degrees hotter than outdoor temperatures at night; some residents in New Orleans may be experiencing the impacts of 5-year-floods on a more regular basis, and droughts don't look or behave the same in different regions, such as New England. Our presentation will focus on pilots in New Orleans, Harlem, and New England, which demonstrate how diverse teams are producing actionable science to inform the design of resilience efforts like real-time indoor heat notification systems, green infrastructure projects to manage stormwater and flooding, and a photographic index of drought.

Contrasting Changes Caused by Drought and Submergence Stresses in Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon)

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Tiantian; Shi, Haitao; Wang, Yanping; Chan, Zhulong

2015-01-01

In this study, we investigated the mechanisms by which bermudagrass withstands the drought and submergence stresses through physiological, proteomic and metabolomic approaches. The results showed that significant physiological changes were observed after drought treatment, while only slight changes after submergence treatment, including compatible solute contents, ROS levels and antioxidant enzyme activities. Proteomics results showed that 81 proteins regulated by drought or submergence treatment were identified by MALDI-TOF-MS. Among them, 76 proteins were modulated by drought stress with 46 increased abundance and 30 decreased abundance. Forty-five showed abundance changes after submergence treatment with 10 increased and 35 decreased. Pathway enrichment analysis revealed that pathways of amino acid metabolism and mitochondrial electron transport/ATP synthesis were only enriched by drought treatment, while other pathways including photosynthesis, biodegradation of xenobiotics, oxidative pentose phosphate, glycolysis and redox were commonly over-represented after both drought and submergence treatments. Metabolomic analysis indicated that most of the metabolites were up-regulated by drought stress, while 34 of 40 metabolites contents exhibited down-regulation or no significant changes when exposed to submergence stress, including sugars and sugar alcohols. These data indicated that drought stress extensively promoted photosynthesis and redox metabolisms while submergence stress caused declined metabolisms and dormancy in Cynodon dactylon. Taken together, the quiescence strategy with retarded growth might allow bermudagrass to be adaptive to long-term submerged environment, while activation of photosynthesis and redox, and accumulation of compatible solutes and molecular chaperones increased bermudagrass tolerance to drought stress. PMID:26617615

Tree ring-based seven-century drought records for the Western Himalaya, India

Science.gov (United States)

Yadav, Ram R.

2013-05-01

The paucity of available instrumental climate records in cold and arid regions of the western Himalaya, India, hampers our understanding of the long-term variability of regional droughts, which seriously affect the agrarian economy of the region. Using ring width chronologies of Cedrus deodara and Pinus gerardiana together from a network of moisture-stressed sites, Palmer Drought Severity Index values for October-May back to 1310 A.D. were developed. The twentieth century features dominant decadal-scale pluvial phases (1981-1995, 1952-1968, and 1918-1934) as compared to the severe droughts in the early seventeenth century (1617-1640) as well as late fifteenth to early sixteenth (1491-1526) centuries. The drought anomalies are positively (negatively) associated with central Pacific (Indo-Pacific Warm Pool) sea surface temperature anomalies. However, non-stationarity in such relationships appears to be the major riddle in the predictability of long-term droughts much needed for the sustainable development of the ecologically sensitive region of the Himalayas.

Changing household responses to drought in Tharaka, Kenya: vulnerability, persistence and challenge.

Science.gov (United States)

Smucker, Thomas A; Wisner, Ben

2008-06-01

Drought is a recurring challenge to the livelihoods of those living in Tharaka District, Kenya, situated in the semi-arid zone to the east of Mount Kenya, from the lowest slopes of the mountain to the banks of the Tana River. This part of Kenya has been marginal to the economic and political life of Kenya from the colonial period until the present day. A study of more than 30 years of change in how people in Tharaka cope with drought reveals resilience in the face of major macro-level transformations, which include privatisation of landownership, population growth, political decentralisation, increased conflict over natural resources, different market conditions, and environmental shifts. However, the study also shows troubling signs of increased use of drought responses that are incompatible with long-term agrarian livelihoods. Government policy needs to address the challenge of drought under these new macro conditions if sustainable human development is to be achieved.

Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

Shifts in pore connectivity from precipitation versus groundwater rewetting increases soil carbon loss after drought

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Ashly P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Benscoter, Brian W.; Tfaily, Malak M.; Hinkle, Ross; Liu, Chongxuan; Bailey, Vanessa L.

2017-11-06

Droughts and other extreme precipitation events are predicted to increase in intensity, duration and extent, with uncertain implications for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. Soil wetting from above (precipitation) results in a characteristically different pattern of pore-filling than wetting from below (groundwater), with larger, well-connected pores filling before finer pore spaces, unlike groundwater rise in which capillary forces saturate the finest pores first. Here we demonstrate that pore-scale wetting patterns interact with antecedent soil moisture conditions to alter pore-, core- and field-scale C dynamics. Drought legacy and wetting direction are perhaps more important determinants of short-term C mineralization than current soil moisture content in these soils. Our results highlight that microbial access to C is not solely limited by physical protection, but also by drought or wetting-induced shifts in hydrologic connectivity. We argue that models should treat soil moisture within a three-dimensional framework emphasizing hydrologic conduits for C and resource diffusion.

Timescale differences between SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought monitoring in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Haiyan; Gao, Ge; An, Wei; Zou, Xukai; Li, Haitao; Hou, Meiting

2017-12-01

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been widely used to monitor drought. Its characteristics are more suitable for measuring droughts of longer timescales, and this fact has not received much attention. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) can better reflect the climatic water balance, owing to its combination of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In this study, we selected monthly average air temperature and precipitation data from 589 meteorological stations of China's National Meteorological Information Center, to compare the effects of applying a self-calibrating PDSI (SC-PDSI) and SPEI to monitor drought events in the station regions, with a special focus on differences of event timescale. The results show the following. 1) Comparative analysis using SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought years and characters of three dry periods from 1961 to 2011 in the Beijing region showed that durations of SC-PDSI-based dry spells were longer than those of 3-month and 6-month SPEIs, but equal to those of 12-month or longer timescale SPEIs. 2) For monitoring evolution of the fall 2009 to spring 2010 Southwest China drought and spring 2000 Huang-Huai drought, 3-month SPEI could better monitor the initiation, aggravation, alleviation and relief of drought in the two regions, whereas the SC-PDSI was insensitive to drought recovery because of its long-term memory of previous climate conditions. 3) Analysis of the relationship between SC-PDSI for different regions and SPEI for different timescales showed that correlation of the two indexes changed with region, and SC-PDSI was maximally correlated with SPEI of 9-19 months in China. Therefore, SC-PDSI is only suitable for monitoring mid- and long-term droughts, owing to the strong lagged autocorrelation such as 0.4786 for 12-month lagged ones in Beijing, whereas SPEI is suitable for both short- and long-term drought-monitoring and should have greater application prospects in China.

Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon Jin Park

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

Long-range hydrometeorological ensemble predictions of drought parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

2012-06-01

Low streamflow as consequence of a drought event affects numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that may be impacted by drought are, e.g. power production, agriculture, tourism and water quality management. Numerical models have increasingly been used to forecast low-flow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the low-flow indices duration, severity and magnitude, with a forecast lead-time of one month, to assess their potential usefulness for predictions. The ECMWF VarEPS 5 member reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification shows that, compared to peak flow, probabilistic low-flow forecasts are skillful for longer lead-times, low-flow index forecasts could also be beneficially included in a decision-making process. The results suggest monthly runoff forecasts are useful for accessing the risk of hydrological droughts.

Multiyear drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in southeastern U.S. forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Berdanier, Aaron B; Clark, James S

2016-01-01

Recent forest diebacks, combined with threats of future drought, focus attention on the extent to which tree death is caused by catastrophic events as opposed to chronic declines in health that accumulate over years. While recent attention has focused on large-scale diebacks, there is concern that increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity may have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. Here we use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from southeastern U.S. forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multiyear declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multiyear drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 yr. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with drought tolerance. These findings support the ability of trees to avoid death during drought events but indicate shifts that could occur over decades. Tree mortality following drought is predictable in these ecosystems based on growth declines, highlighting an opportunity to address multiyear drought-induced morbidity in models, experiments, and management decisions.

Drought analysis and short-term forecast in the Aison River Basin (Greece)

OpenAIRE

Kavalieratou, S.; Karpouzos, D. K.; Babajimopoulos, C.

2012-01-01

A combined regional drought analysis and forecast is elaborated and applied to the Aison River Basin (Greece). The historical frequency, duration and severity were estimated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) computed on variable time scales, while short-term drought forecast was investigated by means of 3-D loglinear models. A quasi-association model with homogenous diagonal effect was proposed to fit the observed frequencies of class transitions of the SPI values computed on t...

Drought increases heat tolerance of leaf respiration in Eucalyptus globulus saplings grown under both ambient and elevated atmospheric [CO2] and temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Gauthier, Paul P. G.; Crous, Kristine Y.; Ayub, Gohar; Duan, Honglang; Weerasinghe, Lasantha K.; Ellsworth, David S.; Tjoelker, Mark G.; Evans, John R.; Tissue, David T.; Atkin, Owen K.

2014-01-01

Climate change is resulting in increasing atmospheric [CO2], rising growth temperature (T), and greater frequency/severity of drought, with each factor having the potential to alter the respiratory metabolism of leaves. Here, the effects of elevated atmospheric [CO2], sustained warming, and drought on leaf dark respiration (R dark), and the short-term T response of R dark were examined in Eucalyptus globulus. Comparisons were made using seedlings grown under different [CO2], T, and drought treatments. Using high resolution T–response curves of R dark measured over the 15–65 °C range, it was found that elevated [CO2], elevated growth T, and drought had little effect on rates of R dark measured at T CO2], growth T, and drought on T response of R dark. However, drought increased R dark at high leaf T typical of heatwave events (35–45 °C), and increased the measuring T at which maximal rates of R dark occurred (T max) by 8 °C (from 52 °C in well-watered plants to 60 °C in drought-treated plants). Leaf starch and soluble sugars decreased under drought and elevated growth T, respectively, but no effect was found under elevated [CO2]. Elevated [CO2] increased the Q 10 of R dark (i.e. proportional rise in R dark per 10 °C) over the 15–35 °C range, while drought increased Q 10 values between 35 °C and 45 °C. Collectively, the study highlights the dynamic nature of the T dependence of R dark in plants experiencing future climate change scenarios, particularly with respect to drought and elevated [CO2]. PMID:25205579

USGS integrated drought science

Science.gov (United States)

Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.

2017-06-05

Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.

Contribution of Temperature to Chilean Droughts Using Ensemble Climate Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alfieri, L.; Naumann, G.; Garreaud, R. D.

2017-12-01

Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of Chilean droughts (25°S-56°S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. An ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35°. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions, while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a 30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium and long-term scenarios (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground observations. Results obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the region is likely to exacerbate the severity and

Drought-induced changes in Amazon forest structure from repeat airborne lidar

Science.gov (United States)

Morton, D. C.; Leitold, V.; Longo, M.; Keller, M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.

2017-12-01

Drought events in tropical forests, including the 2015-2016 El Niño, may reduce net primary productivity and increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering the short and long-term net carbon balance of tropical forests. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, forest inventory plots or eddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. Here, we analyzed repeat airborne lidar data to evaluate canopy turnover from branch and tree fall before (2013-2014) and during (2014-2016) the recent El Niño drought in the eastern and central Brazilian Amazon. Coincident field surveys for a 16-ha subset of the lidar coverage provided complementary information to classify turnover areas by mechanism (branch, multiple branch, tree fall, multiple tree fall) and estimate the total coarse woody debris volume from canopy and understory tree mortality. Annualized rates of canopy turnover increased by 50%, on average, during the drought period in both intact and fragmented forests near Santarém, Pará. Turnover increased uniformly across all size classes, and there was limited evidence that taller trees contributed a greater proportion of turnover events in any size class in 2014-2016 compared to 2013-2014. This short-term increase in canopy turnover differs from findings in multi-year rainfall exclusion experiments that large trees were more sensitive to drought impacts. Field measurements confirmed the separability of the smallest (single branch) and largest damage classes (multiple tree falls), but single tree and multiple branch fall events generated similar coarse woody debris production and lidar-derived changes in canopy volume. Large-scale sampling possible with repeat airborne lidar data also captured strong local and regional gradients in canopy turnover. Differences in slope partially explained the north-south gradient in canopy turnover dynamics near Santarém, with larger increases in turnover on flatter terrain. Regional variability

Disaster risk assessment case study: Recent drought on the Navajo Nation, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Hiza, Margaret; Kelley, Klara B.; Francis, Harris; Block, Debra

2011-01-01

The Navajo Nation is an ecologically sensitive semi-arid to arid section of the southern Colorado Plateau. In this remote part of the United States, located at the Four Corners (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah), traditional people live a subsistence lifestyle that is inextricably tied to, and dependent upon, landscape conditions and water supplies. Soft bedrock lithologies and sand dunes dominate the region, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in precipitation intensity, percent vegetation cover, and local land use practices. However, this region has sparse and discontinuous meteorological monitoring records. As a complement to the scant long-term meteorological records and historical documentation, we conducted interviews with 50 Native American elders from the Navajo Nation and compiled their lifetime observations on the changes in water availability, weather, and sand or dust storms. We then used these observations to further refine our understanding of the historical trends and impacts of climate change and drought for the region. In addition to altered landscape conditions due to climatic change, drought, and varying land use practices over the last 130 years, the Navajo people have been affected by federal policies and harsh economic conditions which weaken their cultural fabric. We conclude that a long-term drying trend and decreasing snowpack, superimposed on regional drought cycles, will magnify drought impacts on the Navajo Nation and leave its people increasingly vulnerable.

Can field populations of the enchytraeid, Cognettia sphagnetorum, adapt to increased drought stress?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maraldo, Kristine; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Beier, Claus

2008-01-01

The ability to evolve increased drought tolerance in response to climate change was investigated in the enchytraeid, Cognettia sphagnetorum. Populations exposed to reduced precipitation or increased night time temperature for more than six years were collected in mixed Calluna/grass heathland...... at the Mols Laboratory, Denmark. The level of prolonged drought and increased temperature corresponded to a predicted climate change scenario and has been applied since 1999. In autumn 2005, enchytraeids were sampled in 3 cm intervals down to 9 cm depth and total number, biomass, diversity and soil organic...... matter were determined. The drought treatment resulted in a significant reduction of the density and biomass of enchytraeids, as well as changes in the species composition. In total, five different genera were found at the site in all three treatments (control, temperature and drought). C. sphagnetorum...

Changes in drought risk with climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.

2005-05-01

As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

Analysis of Droughts of Northwest of Iran Using the Reconnaissance Drought Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

behrouz hosseini

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a creeping natural phenomenon, which can occur in any region. Such phenomenon not only affects the region subjected to drought, but its adverse effects can also be extended to other adjacent regions. This phenomenon mainly starts with water deficiency (say less than long- term mean of variable under study such as rainfall, streamflow, groundwater level or soil moisture and progress in time. This period can be ended by increasing the rainfall and reaching the mean level. Even after the ending of a drought period, its adverse effects can be continued for several months. Although, it is not possible (at least at this time to prevent the occurrence of drought in a given region, it is not impossible to alleviate the drought consequences by scientific water management. Such a management should be employed before drought initiation as well as during it and continue on even after the end of the drought period. The frequency of the main drought characteristics is a major concern of this study. The Northwest of Iran recently encountered severe and prolonged droughts, such that a major portion of the Urmia Lake surface disappeared during the last drought in recent years. In order to study drought characteristics, we used the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI. This index is based on annual rainfall and potential reference crop evapotranspiration (abbreviated by PET here. This study employed the Monte Carlo simulation technique for synthetic data generation for analysis. Materials and Methods: The information from the 17 synoptic weather stations located in the North-west of Iran was used for drought analysis. Data was gathered from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Meteorological Organization (IRIMO. In the first stage of research, the ratio of long term mean annual precipitation to evapotranspiration was calculated for each of the stations. For this purpose, the Penman-Montheis (FAO 56 method was selected for PET estimation. In the

Combining short-term manipulative experiments with long-term palaeoecological investigations at high resolution to assess the response of Sphagnum peatlands to drought, fire and warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Lamentowicz

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Northern hemisphere peatlands are substantial carbon stores. However, recent climate change and human impacts (e.g., drainage and atmospheric nutrient deposition may trigger the emission of their stored carbon to the atmosphere. Biodiversity losses are also an important consequence of those changes. Therefore, there is a need to recognise these processes in space and time. Global change experiments are often conducted to improve our understanding of the potential responses of various ecosystems to global warming and drought. Most of the experiments carried out in peatlands are focused on carbon balance and nitrogen deposition. Nevertheless, it is still unclear how fast peatlands respond to temperature changes and water-table lowering in the continental climate setting. This is important because continental regions account for a significant proportion of all northern hemisphere peatlands. A combination of short-term and long-term approaches in a single research project is especially helpful because it facilitates the correct interpretation of experimental data. Here we describe the CLIMPEAT project - a manipulative field experiment in a Sphagnum-dominated peatland supported by a high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological study. The design of the field experiment (e.g., treatments, methodology and biogeographical setting are presented. We suggest it is beneficial to support field experiments with an investigation of past environmental changes in the studied ecosystem, as human impacts during the past 300 years have already caused substantial changes in ecosystem functioning which may condition the response in experimental studies.

Impact of Drought on Groundwater and Soil Moisture - A Geospatial Tool for Water Resource Management

Science.gov (United States)

Ziolkowska, J. R.; Reyes, R.

2016-12-01

For many decades, recurring droughts in different regions in the US have been negatively impacting ecosystems and economic sectors. Oklahoma and Texas have been suffering from exceptional and extreme droughts in 2011-2014, with almost 95% of the state areas being affected (Drought Monitor, 2015). Accordingly, in 2011 alone, around 1.6 billion were lost in the agricultural sector alone as a result of drought in Oklahoma (Stotts 2011), and 7.6 billion in Texas agriculture (Fannin 2012). While surface water is among the instant indicators of drought conditions, it does not translate directly to groundwater resources that are the main source of irrigation water. Both surface water and groundwater are susceptible to drought, while groundwater depletion is a long-term process and might not show immediately. However, understanding groundwater availability is crucial for designing water management strategies and sustainable water use in the agricultural sector and other economic sectors. This paper presents an interactive geospatially weighted evaluation model and a tool at the same time to analyze groundwater resources that can be used for decision support in water management. The tool combines both groundwater and soil moisture changes in Oklahoma and Texas in 2003-2014, thus representing the most important indicators of agricultural and hydrological drought. The model allows for analyzing temporal and geospatial long-term drought at the county level. It can be expanded to other regions in the US and the world. The model has been validated with the Palmer Drought Index Severity Index to account for other indicators of meteorological drought. It can serve as a basis for an upcoming socio-economic and environmental analysis of drought events in the short and long-term in different geographic regions.

The influence of climate change on meteorological drought characteristic in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao-Shan Yu; Chun-Chao Kuo; Chi-Wen Sung

2004-01-01

Global climate change and its influence on water resource are the worldwide issues. This study aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on drought characteristic in western Taiwan. This analysis on local climate change, may provide the reference for climate change study on Asia region. Thirty-one rainfall stations with at least 80 years records over western Taiwan provide the data set to analysis trend and change in the long term rainfall series. As the area of Taiwan is too small, the GCM is not suitable for our investigation on climate change. Therefore, the statistical methods of Cumulative Deviations test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test were applied to detect the change points of annual rainfall depth and detect whether the long-term rainfall series exist variation and tendency in the historical records. The analytical results reveal that a significant change point occurs during about 1960s for annual rainfall series. Two samples in the long- tern rainfall series are further divided based on this change point. Yearly rainfall depth increases in northern Taiwan and decreases in middle and southern Taiwan. Average values and standard deviation of monthly rainfall depth in these two samples are compared. A stable reducing tendency of average rainfall in the wet seasons (May to October) is found in middle and southern Taiwan and increasing tendency in northern Taiwan. We further investigate whether drought characteristic is difference before and after 1960. Nine irrigation areas in Taiwan are divided based on its irrigation system. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is estimated and compared with historical agriculture drought. It is found that 3-month SPI has better characteristic than 1-month SPI to respond the agriculture drought characteristic. Therefore, 3-month SPI for each irrigation area is estimated both before and after 1960. It is found that the frequency and duration of moderate dry (3-month SPI<-1.0) and severely dry

Interactions between lithology and biology drive the long-term response of stream chemistry to major hurricanes in a tropical landscape

Science.gov (United States)

W.H. McDowell; R.L. Brereton; F.N. Scatena; J.B. Shanley; N.V. Brokaw; A.E. Lugo

2013-01-01

Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in many global biogeochemical cycles, yet long-term records of tropical stream chemistry and its response to disturbance events such as severe storms and droughts are rare. Here we document the long-term variability in chemistry of two streams in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico over a period of 27 years. Our two focal...

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time

Stand structure modulates the long-term vulnerability of Pinus halepensis to climatic drought in a semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Gutiérrez, Cristina; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Cherubini, Paolo; Saurer, Matthias; Nicolás, Emilio; Contreras, Sergio; Querejeta, José Ignacio

2012-06-01

We investigated whether stand structure modulates the long-term physiological performance and growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. in a semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem. Tree radial growth and carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition of latewood (δ(13)C(LW) and δ(18)O(LW), respectively) from 1967 to 2007 were measured in P. halepensis trees from two sharply contrasting stand types: open woodlands with widely scattered trees versus dense afforested stands. In both stand types, tree radial growth, δ(13)C(LW) and δ(18)O(LW) were strongly correlated with annual rainfall, thus indicating that tree performance in this semiarid environment is largely determined by inter-annual changes in water availability. However, trees in dense afforested stands showed consistently higher δ(18)O(LW) and similar δ(13)C(LW) values compared with those in neighbouring open woodlands, indicating lower stomatal conductance and photosynthesis rates in the former, but little difference in water use efficiency between stand types. Trees in dense afforested stands were more water stressed and showed lower radial growth, overall suggesting greater vulnerability to drought and climate aridification compared with trees in open woodlands. In this semiarid ecosystem, the negative impacts of intense inter-tree competition for water on P. halepensis performance clearly outweigh potential benefits derived from enhanced infiltration and reduced run-off losses in dense afforested stands. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

California Drought Recovery Assessment Using GRACE Satellite Gravimetry Information

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Love, C. A.; Aghakouchak, A.; Madadgar, S.; Tourian, M. J.

2015-12-01

California has been experiencing its most extreme drought in recent history due to a combination of record high temperatures and exceptionally low precipitation. An estimate for when the drought can be expected to end is needed for risk mitigation and water management. A crucial component of drought recovery assessments is the estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) deficit. Previous studies on drought recovery have been limited to surface water hydrology (precipitation and/or runoff) for estimating changes in TWS, neglecting the contribution of groundwater deficits to the recovery time of the system. Groundwater requires more time to recover than surface water storage; therefore, the inclusion of groundwater storage in drought recovery assessments is essential for understanding the long-term vulnerability of a region. Here we assess the probability, for varying timescales, of California's current TWS deficit returning to its long-term historical mean. Our method consists of deriving the region's fluctuations in TWS from changes in the gravity field observed by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. We estimate the probability that meteorological inputs, precipitation minus evaporation and runoff, over different timespans will balance the current GRACE-derived TWS deficit (e.g. in 3, 6, 12 months). This method improves upon previous techniques as the GRACE-derived water deficit comprises all hydrologic sources, including surface water, groundwater, and snow cover. With this empirical probability assessment we expect to improve current estimates of California's drought recovery time, thereby improving risk mitigation.

Long-term urethral catheterisation.

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Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

Effect of Experimentally Manipulated Fire Regimes on the Response of Forests to Drought

Science.gov (United States)

Refsland, T. K.; Knapp, B.; Fraterrigo, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase drought stress in many forests and alter fire regimes. Fire can reduce tree density and thus competition for limited water, but the effects of changing fire regimes on forest productivity during drought remain poorly understood. We measured the annual ring-widths of adult oak (Quercus spp.) trees in Mark Twain National Forest, Missouri USA that experienced unburned, annual or periodic (every 4 years) surface fire treatments from 1951 - 2015. Severe drought events were identified using the BILJOU water balance model. We determined the effect of fire treatment on stand-level annual growth rates as well as stand-level resistance and resilience to drought, defined as the drought-induced reduction in growth and post-drought recovery in growth, respectively. During favorable wet years, annual and periodic fire treatments reduced annual growth rates by approximately 10-15% relative to unburned controls (P burned stands during favorable wet years was likely caused by increased nitrogen (N) limitation in burned plots. After 60 years of treatment, burned plots experienced 30% declines in total soil N relative to unburned plots. Our finding that drought resistance and resilience were similar across all treatments suggest that fire-driven reductions in stand density may have negligible effects on soil moisture availability during drought. Our results highlight that climate-fire interactions can have important long-term effects on forest productivity.

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

2017-11-01

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occurs, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

2017-11-01

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for

Effect of Trinexapac-ethyl on Increased Resistance to Drought Stress in Wheatgrass (Agropyron desertorum L.

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mohamad hossein sheikh mohamadi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is one of the most detrimental abiotic stresses for turfgrass growth across a wide range of geographic locations. Most cool-season grass species are not well adapted to extended periods of drought, particularly during summer months. Decline in turf quality caused by drought stress is a major concern in turfgrass culture. Therefore, developing management practices for improving drought resistance of turfgrasses has become essential in arid and semi-arid regions, especially during water use restriction. One strategy to improve plant drought resistance is to promote drought avoidance by reducing water loss during drought, which may be achieved by slowing growth rate of shoots and lowering leaf area canopy to reduce demand for water. Application of growth regulators is one of the methods for increasing resistance of plants to biotic and abiotic stresses. Trinexapac-ethyl (TE is one of the most widely used PGRs in the management of cool-season and warm-season turfgrass species. TE absorbed quickly by foliage and slow cell elongation through inhibiting of converting one form of gibberellic acid (GA20 to another (GA1. Most studies conducted under non-stressed conditions found that TE application increased chlorophyll content, turf quality, turf density and reduced shoot extension rate. We hypothesized that TE may influence plant tolerance to drought stress. Limited available data─ as reported in the above referred studies─ suggest that TE application may be beneficial for plant tolerance to stresses, but the effectiveness varies with turfgrass species, dose and duration of TE treatment, and type of stress. The main aim of this research is to evaluate the effect of Trinexapac-ethyl on increased resistance to drought stress in wheatgrass. Materials and Methods: Wheatgrass (Agropyron desertorum L. was used in this study. This study was conducted in field conditions at Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.. Wheatgrass

Growth-mortality relationships in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) during severe droughts of the past century: shifting processes in space and time.

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Macalady, Alison K; Bugmann, Harald

2014-01-01

The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1) analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2) determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3) derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees' ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15-30 year) average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84) and correctly classified ∼ 70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and/or increases

Growth-mortality relationships in piñon pine (Pinus edulis during severe droughts of the past century: shifting processes in space and time.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison K Macalady

Full Text Available The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1 analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2 determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3 derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees' ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15-30 year average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84 and correctly classified ∼ 70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and

Growth-Mortality Relationships in Piñon Pine (Pinus edulis) during Severe Droughts of the Past Century: Shifting Processes in Space and Time

Science.gov (United States)

Macalady, Alison K.; Bugmann, Harald

2014-01-01

The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1) analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2) determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3) derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees’ ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15–30 year) average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84) and correctly classified ∼70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and

Energy droughts in a 100% renewable electricity mix

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Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoît; François, Baptiste; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

During the 21st conference of parties, 175 countries agreed on limiting the temperature increase due to global warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels. Such an ambitious goal necessitates a deep transformation of our society in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Europe has started its energy transition years ago by, for instance, increasing the share of renewables in the European electricity generation and should continue in this direction. Variable renewable energies (VRE) and especially those driven by weather conditions (namely wind, solar and hydro power from river flow), are expected to play a key role in achieving the GHG reduction target. However, these renewables are often criticized for their intermittency and for the resulting difficult integration in the power supply system, especially for large shares of VRE in the energy mix. Assessing the feasibility of electricity generation using large contributions of VRE requires a deep understanding and characterization of the VRE spatiotemporal variations. In the last decade, many studies have focused on the short-term intermittency of VRE generation, but the persistency and the characteristics of periods of low/high electricity generation have been rarely studied. Yet, these particular situations require some demanding adaptations of the power supply system in term of back-up sources or production curtailment respectively. This study focuses on what we call "energy droughts" which, by analogy with hydrological or meteorological droughts, are defined as periods of very low energy production. We consider in turn "energy droughts" associated to wind, solar and hydro power (run-of-the-river). Their characteristics are estimated for 12 European regions being subjected to different climatic regimes. For each region and energy source, "droughts" are evaluated from a 30-yr time series of power generation (1983-2012). These series are simulated by using a suite of weather-to-energy conversion models with

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Barandiaran, Danny; Hilburn, Kyle; Houser, Paul; Oglesby, Bob; Pan, Ming; Pinker, Rachel; Santanello, Joe; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan;

The effect of drought on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) release from peatland soil and vegetation sources

Science.gov (United States)

Ritson, Jonathan P.; Brazier, Richard E.; Graham, Nigel J. D.; Freeman, Chris; Templeton, Michael R.; Clark, Joanna M.

2017-06-01

Drought conditions are expected to increase in frequency and severity as the climate changes, representing a threat to carbon sequestered in peat soils. Downstream water treatment works are also at risk of regulatory compliance failures and higher treatment costs due to the increase in riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) often observed after droughts. More frequent droughts may also shift dominant vegetation in peatlands from Sphagnum moss to more drought-tolerant species. This paper examines the impact of drought on the production and treatability of DOC from four vegetation litters (Calluna vulgaris, Juncus effusus, Molinia caerulea and Sphagnum spp.) and a peat soil. We found that mild droughts caused a 39.6 % increase in DOC production from peat and that peat DOC that had been exposed to oxygen was harder to remove by conventional water treatment processes (coagulation/flocculation). Drought had no effect on the amount of DOC production from vegetation litters; however large variation was observed between typical peatland species (Sphagnum and Calluna) and drought-tolerant grassland species (Juncus and Molinia), with the latter producing more DOC per unit weight. This would therefore suggest the increase in riverine DOC often observed post-drought is due entirely to soil microbial processes and DOC solubility rather than litter layer effects. Long-term shifts in species diversity may, therefore, be the most important impact of drought on litter layer DOC flux, whereas pulses related to drought may be observed in peat soils and are likely to become more common in the future. These results provide evidence in support of catchment management which increases the resilience of peat soils to drought, such as ditch blocking to raise water tables.

Evidence for increasingly variable Palmer Drought Severity Index in the United States since 1895.

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Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya

2016-02-15

Annual and summertime trends towards increasingly variable values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over a sub-decadal period (five years) were investigated within the contiguous United States between 1895 and the present. For the contiguous United States as a whole, there is a significant increasing trend in the five-year running minimum-maximum ranges for the annual PDSI (aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range)). During this time frame, the average aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) has increased by about one full unit, indicating a substantial increase in drought variability over short time scales across the United States. The end members of the running aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) highlight even more rapid changes in the drought index variability within the past 120 years. This increasing variability in the aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) is driven primarily by changes taking place in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean coastal climate regions, climate regions which collectively comprise one-third the area of the contiguous United States. Similar trends were found for the annual and summertime Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI), and the Palmer Z Index (PZI). Overall, interannual drought patterns in the contiguous United States are becoming more extreme and difficult to predict, posing a challenge to agricultural and other water-resource related planning efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increasing temperature exacerbated Classic Maya conflict over the long term

Science.gov (United States)

Carleton, W. Christopher; Campbell, David; Collard, Mark

2017-05-01

The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363-888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.

Drought-induced weakening of growth-temperature associations in high-elevation Iberian pines

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Diego Galván, J.; Büntgen, Ulf; Ginzler, Christian; Grudd, Håkan; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Labuhn, Inga; Julio Camarero, J.

2015-01-01

The growth/climate relationship of theoretically temperature-controlled high-elevation forests has been demonstrated to weaken over recent decades. This is likely due to new tree growth limiting factors, such as an increasing drought risk for ecosystem functioning and productivity across the Mediterranean Basin. In addition, declining tree growth sensitivity to spring temperature may emerge in response to increasing drought stress. Here, we evaluate these ideas by assessing the growth/climate sensitivity of 1500 tree-ring width (TRW) and 102 maximum density (MXD) measurement series from 711 and 74 Pinus uncinata trees, respectively, sampled at 28 high-elevation forest sites across the Pyrenees and two relict populations of the Iberian System. Different dendroclimatological standardization and split period approaches were used to assess the high- to low-frequency behavior of 20th century tree growth in response to temperature means, precipitation totals and drought indices. Long-term variations in TRW track summer temperatures until about 1970 but diverge afterwards, whereas MXD captures the recent temperature increase in the low-frequency domain fairly well. On the other hand summer drought has increasingly driven TRW along the 20th century. Our results suggest fading temperature sensitivity of Iberian high-elevation P. uncinata forest growth, and reveal the importance of summer drought that is becoming the emergent limiting factor of tree ring width formation in many parts of the Mediterranean Basin.

Systemic and intensifying drought induces collapse and replacement of native fishes: a time-series approach

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Ruhi, A.; Olden, J. D.; Sabo, J. L.

2015-12-01

In the American Southwest, hydrologic drought has become a new normal as a result of increasing human appropriation of freshwater resources and increased aridity associated with global warming. Although drought has often been touted to threaten freshwater biodiversity, connecting drought to extinction risk of highly-imperiled faunas remains a challenge. Here we combine time-series methods from signal processing and econometrics to analyze a spatially comprehensive and long-term dataset to link discharge variation and community abundance of fish across the American Southwest. This novel time series framework identifies ongoing trends in daily discharge anomalies across the Southwest, quantifies the effect of the historical hydrologic drivers on fish community abundance, and allows us to simulate species trajectories and range-wide risk of decline (quasiextinction) under scenarios of future climate. Spectral anomalies are declining over the last 30 years in at least a quarter of the stream gaging stations across the American Southwest and these anomalies are robust predictors of historical abundance of native and non-native fishes. Quasiextinction probabilities are high (>50 %) for nearly ¾ of the native species across several large river basins in the same region; and the negative trend in annual anomalies increases quasiextinction risk for native but reduces this risk for non-native fishes. These findings suggest that ongoing drought is causing range-wide collapse and replacement of native fish faunas, and that this homogenization of western fish faunas will continue given the prevailing negative trend in discharge anomalies. Additionally, this combination of methods can be applied elsewhere as long as environmental and biological long-term time-series data are available. Collectively, these methods allow identifying the link between hydroclimatic forcing and ecological responses and thus may help anticipating the potential impacts of ongoing and future hydrologic

Mapping of SPI drought index in South-Eastern Europe, theory and practice

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Bihari, Z.; Szentimrey, T.; Lakatos, M.; Gregorič, G.; Likso, T.

2010-09-01

In recent decades drought has a major impact on the economy in South-Eastern Europe (SEE). The annual precipitation has decreased from the beginning of 20th century. Additional problem is that the intensity of precipitation increases in average. The part of runoff became larger, and greater part of the precipitation runs to the rivers, streamlets, and less part infiltrates into the soil. Therefore, the available water reduces for vegetation. Summarized, the drought tendency increases in the region. The Drought Management Centre for South East Europe was established to deal with these events and try to improve drought management and policy. One method to calculate the extent of a drought event is the application of drought indices. Several indices are used for this purpose, one of them is the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) developed by McKee et al. The SPI is based only on precipitation and can be used to monitor conditions on a variety of time scales. The SPI calculation for any location is based on long-term precipitation record for a desired period. This long-term record is fitted to a gamma probability distribution, which is then transformed into the standard normal distribution. In the practice SPI is calculated mainly for 1, 3, 6 months. The SPI calculator which is offered on the project page of DMCSEE is applied for SPI calculations in this study. For the interpolation of SPI we use the MISH interpolation method developed at Hungarian Meteorological Service (Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenized Data Basis; Szentimrey, Bihari, 2007). The interpolation can be realized in to ways: 1. The SPI values are calculated in grid points after gridding (by gridding part of MISH) the station precipitation data series 2. The station based SPI values are interpolated by method MISH One of the main feature of MISH is that it use longtime data series for modelling of the necessary climate statistical parameters while the SPI calculations are also based

Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

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Pulwarty, R. S.

2011-12-01

Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

Control of root system architecture by DEEPER ROOTING 1 increases rice yield under drought conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Uga, Yusaku; Sugimoto, Kazuhiko; Ogawa, Satoshi; Rane, Jagadish; Ishitani, Manabu; Hara, Naho; Kitomi, Yuka; Inukai, Yoshiaki; Ono, Kazuko; Kanno, Noriko; Inoue, Haruhiko; Takehisa, Hinako; Motoyama, Ritsuko; Nagamura, Yoshiaki; Wu, Jianzhong; Matsumoto, Takashi; Takai, Toshiyuki; Okuno, Kazutoshi; Yano, Masahiro

2013-09-01

The genetic improvement of drought resistance is essential for stable and adequate crop production in drought-prone areas. Here we demonstrate that alteration of root system architecture improves drought avoidance through the cloning and characterization of DEEPER ROOTING 1 (DRO1), a rice quantitative trait locus controlling root growth angle. DRO1 is negatively regulated by auxin and is involved in cell elongation in the root tip that causes asymmetric root growth and downward bending of the root in response to gravity. Higher expression of DRO1 increases the root growth angle, whereby roots grow in a more downward direction. Introducing DRO1 into a shallow-rooting rice cultivar by backcrossing enabled the resulting line to avoid drought by increasing deep rooting, which maintained high yield performance under drought conditions relative to the recipient cultivar. Our experiments suggest that control of root system architecture will contribute to drought avoidance in crops.

Transcriptomic Identification of Drought-Related Genes and SSR Markers in Sudan Grass Based on RNA-Seq

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Yongqun Zhu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Sudan grass (Sorghum sudanense is an annual warm-season gramineous forage grass that is widely used as pasture, hay, and silage. However, drought stress severely impacts its yield, and there is limited information about the mechanisms of drought tolerance in Sudan grass. In this study, we used next-generation sequencing to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs in the Sudan grass variety Wulate No.1, and we developed simple sequence repeat (SSR markers associated with drought stress. From 852,543,826 raw reads, nearly 816,854,366 clean reads were identified and used for analysis. A total of 80,686 unigenes were obtained via de novo assembly of the clean reads including 45,065 unigenes (55.9% that were identified as coding sequences (CDSs. According to Gene Ontology analysis, 31,444 unigenes were annotated, 11,778 unigenes were identified to 25 categories in the clusters of orthologous groups of proteins (KOG classification, and 11,223 unigenes were assigned to 280 Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG pathways. Additionally, there were 2,329 DEGs under a short-term of 25% polyethylene glycol (PEG treatment, while 5,101 DEGs were identified under the long-term of 25% PEG treatment. DEGs were enriched in pathways of carbon fixation in photosynthetic organisms and plant hormone signal transduction which played a leading role in short-term of drought stress. However, DEGs were mainly enriched in pathway of plant hormone signal transduction that played an important role under long-term of drought stress. To increase accuracy, we excluded all the DEGs of all controls, specifically, five DEGs that were associated with high PEG concentrations were found through RNA-Seq. All five genes were up-regulated under drought stress, but the functions of the genes remain unclear. In addition, we identified 17,548 SSRs obtained from 80,686 unigenes. The newly identified drought tolerance DEGs will contribute to transgenic breeding efforts, while

Loss of CDKC;2 increases both cell division and drought tolerance in Arabidopsis thaliana.

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Zhao, Lina; Li, Yaqiong; Xie, Qi; Wu, Yaorong

2017-09-01

Drought stress is one of the abiotic stresses that limit plant growth and agricultural productivity. To further understand the mechanism of drought tolerance and identify the genes involved in this process, a genetic screen for altered drought response was conducted in Arabidopsis. One mutant with enhanced drought tolerance was isolated and named Arabidopsis drought tolerance mutant 1 (atdtm1), which has larger lateral organs, prolonged growth duration, increased relative water content and a reduced leaf stomatal density compared with the wild type. The loss of AtDTM1 increases cell division during leaf development. The phenotype is caused by the loss of a T-DNA tagged gene encoding CYCLIN-DEPENDENT KINASE C;2 (CDKC;2), which functions in the regulation of transcription by influencing the phosphorylation status of RNA polymerase II (Pol II). Here, we show that CDKC;2 affects the transcription of downstream genes such as cell cycle genes and genes involved in stomatal development, resulting in altered plant organ size as well as drought tolerance of the plant. These results reveal the crucial role of CDKC;2 in modulating both cell division and the drought response in Arabidopsis. © 2017 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drought coping strategies in cotton: increased crop per drop.

Science.gov (United States)

Ullah, Abid; Sun, Heng; Yang, Xiyan; Zhang, Xianlong

2017-03-01

The growth and yield of many crops, including cotton, are affected by water deficit. Cotton has evolved drought specific as well as general morpho-physiological, biochemical and molecular responses to drought stress, which are discussed in this review. The key physiological responses against drought stress in cotton, including stomata closing, root development, cellular adaptations, photosynthesis, abscisic acid (ABA) and jasmonic acid (JA) production and reactive oxygen species (ROS) scavenging, have been identified by researchers. Drought stress induces the expression of stress-related transcription factors and genes, such as ROS scavenging, ABA or mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPK) signalling genes, which activate various drought-related pathways to induce tolerance in the plant. It is crucial to elucidate and induce drought-tolerant traits via quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, transgenic approaches and exogenous application of substances. The current review article highlights the natural as well as engineered drought tolerance strategies in cotton. © 2017 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Satellite-based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation

Science.gov (United States)

McCullum, A. J. K.; Schmidt, C.; Ly, V.; Green, R.; McClellan, C.

2017-12-01

The Navajo Nation (NN) is the largest reservation in the US, and faces challenges related to water management during long-term and widespread drought episodes. The Navajo Nation is a federally recognized tribe, which has boundaries within Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Navajo Nation has a land area of over 70,000 square kilometers. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) reports on drought and climatic conditions through the use of regional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and a network of in-situ rainfall, streamflow, and climate data. However, these data sources lack the spatial detail and consistent measurements needed to provide a coherent understanding of the drought regime within the Nation's regional boundaries. This project, as part of NASA's Western Water Applications Office (WWAO), improves upon the recently developed Drought Severity Assessment Tool (DSAT) to ingest satellite-based precipitation data to generate SPI values for specific administrative boundaries within the reservation. The tool aims to: (1) generate SPI values and summary statistics for regions of interest on various timescales, (2) to visualize SPI values within a web-map application, and (3) produce maps and comparative statistical outputs in the format required for annual drought reporting. The co-development of the DSAT with NN partners is integral to increasing the sustained use of Earth Observations for water management applications. This tool will provide data to support the NN in allocation of drought contingency dollars to the regions most adversely impacted by declines in water availability.

Introduction of an index for drought evaluation using principle components analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Farhangfar

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Isfahan province is located in the center of Iran and has arid and semi-arid climate. In recent years, water shortage has increased in this region and has affected crop production. Wheat is one of the most important crops of the province. In the present research, an index (DEI has been developed for drought evaluation using long term climatic data through application of principle components analysis (PCA. The counties of the province were classified and evaluated according to drought intensity. In addition to DEI for quantifying drought, Aridity index (AI was also calculated at different time scales in each county. The climatic and grain yield data were collected from the Iranian Meteorological Organization and Isfahan Agricultural Organization, respectively. In order to remove the positive effects of genetic improvement and progress in agronomic management on long-term wheat grain yield, double exponential smoothing technique was used. According to DEI, Isfahan, Shahreza, Golpaygan and Natanz had semi-arid climate and Ardestan, Khoorobiabanak, Kashan and Naein could be classified as arid, while according to AI studied counties had arid climate. AI had the greatest amount only in Golpaygan while DEI had the greatest value in Isfahan, Shahreza, Golpaygan, Kashan and Natanz. PCA results showed that maximum temperature (coefficient of 3.51 followed by mean wind speed (coefficient of 2.27 were the main climatic variable influencing counties weather. Calculated drought indices showed poor correlation with wheat yield, indicating that other meteorological indices should still be examined to capture wheat yield variability in this province.

Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought

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Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.

2017-10-01

California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.

Drought effects on ecosystem functioning and interactions with CO2 and warming - results from CLIMAITE

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Beier, Claus; Ibrom, Andreas; Linden, Leon G.; Selsted, Merete B.; Albert, Kristian R.; Kongstad, Jane; Andresen, Louise C.

2010-05-01

both processes responsible for inputs and outputs of carbon with an overall effect of drought reducing the carbon gain in the ecosystem. Long term changes in rewetting capability observed in other drought studies (Sowerby et al., 2009) are not visible in the CLIMAITE experiment yet. Elevated CO2 improves the water use efficiency and thereby reduces the water use and water stress in the ecosystem during droughts. Consequently, a higher plant growth and carbon gain can be maintained during dry periods. Higher water status during dry periods might also stimulate carbon turnover by microbes, but this effect is, at least on the short term less prominent than the effect on plant growth and CO2 in combination with drought seemed to stimulate ecosystem carbon gain. Increased temperature may amplify reduced water availability by stimulating evapotranspiration, and the responses in CLIMAITE generally support this with reduced plant growth and carbon uptake in plants when temperature and drought was combined. Furthermore, it might be expected that elevated temperature stimulates soil carbon mineralisation leading to an overall reduction in ecosystem carbon gain when the ecosystem is exposed to both warming and drought. However, the short term results from CLIMAITE are inconclusive on this point with generally small and varied responses to warming. The full factorial experiment shows clear interactions among factors and simple precipitation change experiments may not provide a valid picture of the responses to the combined climate change scenario, even at the short term. On the longer term more complex interactions may occur and make prediction even more uncertain. In relation to water this may in particular be linked to long term changes in soil structure and microbial biomass as well as changes in plant species composition leading to dominating plants with better opportunities to deal with either limited or fluctuating water availability. The CLIMAITE studies support emerging

Comparative analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Pearl River basin during the period 1960-2012

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Xu, K.; Wu, C.; Hu, B.; Niu, J.

2017-12-01

Drought is one of the major natural hazards that can have devastating impacts on the regional environment, agriculture, and water resources. Previous studies have conducted the assessment of historic changes in meteorological drought over various regional scales but rarely considered hydrological drought due to limited hydrological observations. Here, we use a long-term (1960-2012) gridded hydro-meteorological data to present a comparative analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Pearl River basin in southern China using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized runoff index (SRI). The variation in SPI and SRI at four different timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month) is investigated using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method and continuous wavelet transform (CWT). The results indicate that the correlation between SPI and SRI is strong over the Pearl River basin and tends to be stronger at the longer timescale. Meanwhile, the periodic oscillation pattern of SPI becomes more consistent with that of SRI with the increased timescale. The SPI can be used as a substitute for SRI to represent the hydrological drought at the long-term scale. Overall there is a noticeably wetting trend mainly in the eastern parts and a significant drying trend mainly in the western regions and the downstream area of the Pearl River basin. The variability of meteorological drought is significant mainly in the eastern and western regions, while the variability of hydrological drought tends to be larger mainly in the western region. CWT analysis indicates a period of 0.75-7 years in both meteorological and hydrological droughts during the period 1960-2012 in the study region.

Climate, Tree Growth, Forest Drought Stress, and Tree Mortality in Forests of Western North America: Long-Term Patterns and Recent Trends

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Allen, C. D.; Williams, P.

2012-12-01

Ongoing climate changes are increasingly affecting the world's forests, particularly including high latitude and high elevation coniferous forests. Although forest growth has improved in some regions due to greater growing season length and warmth (perhaps along with increased atmospheric CO2 or N), large growth declines or increased mortality from droughts or hotter temperatures also are being observed. We present and interpret information on regional variation in climate-tree growth relationships and trends, and on patterns and trends of climate-related forest disturbances, from western North America. From 235 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we show that tree-ring growth records from warmer southwestern sites are more sensitive to temperature than tree-ring growth records from cooler southwestern sites. Assessment of 59 tree-ring records from 11 species in the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest shows that trees growing in cool places respond positively to increased temperature and trees in warm places respond negatively, implying that trees historically not sensitive to temperature may become sensitive as mean temperatures warm. An analysis of 59 white spruce populations in Alaska supports the hypothesis that warming has caused tree growth to lose sensitivity to cold temperatures. Comparing ring widths to temperature during just the coldest 50% of years during the 20th century, tree growth was sensitive to cold temperatures, and this effect was strongest at the coldest sites; whereas during the warmest 50% of years, trees were not at all sensitive to cold temperatures, even at the cold sites. Drought and vapor pressure deficit are among the variables that emerge as being increasingly important to these Alaska boreal forests as mean temperatures rise. Most recently, from 346 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we establish a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis

Managing a drought: what does a hydroelectric utility do when the rain stops?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cormie, D.

2004-07-01

Measures put in place by Manitoba Hydro to combat drought resulting from the absence of precipitation, are discussed. Under normal conditions Manitoba Hydro, a provincially owned electric utility, generates over 95 per cent of its electricity from hydroelectric power stations. During the extended drought lasting from the summer of 2002 until the spring of 2004, the utility found itself forced to import electricity from outside the province. The principal reason that the utility was able to survive this long spell of no precipitation is that Manitoba Hydro's planners always assume that a drought will continue and if an option to purchase power exists, the utility will pursue that option instead of depleting its reservoirs. In most situations, Manitoba Hydro is able to import purchased power using its 12 transmission line interconnections to utilities in Saskatchewan, Ontario and the United States. The combined capacity of these lines is approximately, 1,340 MW. Manitoba Hydro also has a limited gas-fired generating capacity, which has been put into service during the drought, in particular to cap the price of purchased electricity when spot market prices exceeded the cost of producing electricity with natural gas. The third line of defence rests with a coal-fired unit at the utility's Brandon generating station which may be used as a last resort to help the utility limit its financial vulnerability to high electricity and gas prices. In addition to supplying power to to Manitobans, the utility has long-term contractual obligations to supply approximately 4,000 GWh of power to export customers. During the 2003-2004 drought Manitoba Hydro pursued offsetting purchases to these long-term sales; essentially buying back the power it had previously agreed to sell. Although retained earnings allowed the utility to cushion ratepayers from the financial shock of the drought, to rebuild those earnings, it will be necessary to increase electricity rates across all

The dtudy of physiological and biochemical responses of Agrostis stolonifera and Festuca arundinacea Schreb. under drought stress

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Mohammad Hassan Alibiglouei

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Drought stress is a main limiting factor of turfgrass growth in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, in this study, the physiological and biochemical changes in two turfgrass species Agrostis stolonifera and Festuca arundinacea schreb during drought stress (70-75 centibar in a 40-day period and recovery were investigated. Control plants during drought stress were regularly irrigated at soil field capacity (20-25 centibar. The results showed that leaf relative water content and leaf chlorophyll content with long-term stress decreased. Electrolyte leakage and proline during drought stress significantly increased and in recovery stage, the level of electrolyte leakage and proline reached to the control. The activity of peroxidase and superoxide dismutase in two turfgrass significantly increased after 30 days and then significantly reduced. In F. arundinacea schreb the activity of ascorbat peroxidase after 20 days significantly increased and then significantly reduced. Also, in F. arundinacea schreb species the activity of catalase increased during drought stress and in recovery stage the activity of catalase reduced. In studied species during drought stress and recovery stage, the activity of ascorbat peroxidase and catalase significantly increased compared to the control. These results suggested that the resistant species F. arundinacea schreb, under drought stress had a low level of electrolyte leakage, higher level of relative water content and chlorophyll destruction was less than A. stolonifera.

Assessing the utility of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought based on soil moisture in Chongqing, China

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Chen, Hui; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hong-Bin

2018-04-01

Numerous drought indices have been developed to analyze and monitor drought condition, but they are region specific and limited by various climatic conditions. In southwest China, summer drought mainly occurs from June to September, causing destructive and profound impact on agriculture, society, and ecosystems. The current study assesses the availability of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought in this area at 5-day scale. The drought indices include the relative moisture index ( M), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the composite index of meteorological drought (CIspi), and the improved composite index of meteorological drought (CIwap). Long-term daily precipitation and temperature from 1970 to 2014 are used to calculate 30-day M ( M 30), SPI (SPI30), SPEI (SPEI30), 90-day SPEI (SPEI90), CIspi, and CIwap. The 5-day soil moisture observations from 2010 to 2013 are applied to assess the performance of these drought indices. Correlation analysis, overall accuracy, and kappa coefficient are utilized to investigate the relationships between soil moisture and drought indices. Correlation analysis indicates that soil moisture is well correlated with CIwap, SPEI30, M 30, SPI30, and CIspi except SPEI90. Moreover, drought classifications identified by M 30 are in agreement with that of the observed soil moisture. The results show that M 30 based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is an appropriate indicator for monitoring drought condition at a finer scale in the study area. According to M 30, summer drought during 1970-2014 happened in each year and showed a slightly upward tendency in recent years.

Do the frequencies of adverse events increase, decrease, or stay the same with long-term use of statins?

Science.gov (United States)

Huddy, Karlyn; Dhesi, Pavittarpaul; Thompson, Paul D

2013-02-01

Statins are widely used for their cholesterol-lowering properties and proven reduction of cardiovascular disease risk. Many patients take statins as long-term treatment for a variety of conditions without a clear-cut understanding of how treatment duration affects the frequency of adverse effects. We aimed to evaluate whether the frequencies of documented adverse events increase, decrease, or remain unchanged with long-term statin use. We reviewed the established literature to define the currently known adverse effects of statin therapy, including myopathy, central nervous system effects, and the appearance of diabetes, and the frequency of these events with long-term medication use. The frequency of adverse effects associated with long-term statin therapy appears to be low. Many patients who develop side effects from statin therapy do so relatively soon after initiation of therapy, so the frequency of side effects from statin therapy when expressed as a percentage of current users decreases over time. Nevertheless, patients may develop side effects such as muscle pain and weakness years after starting statin therapy; however, the absolute number of patients affected by statin myopathy increases with treatment duration. Also, clinical trials of statin therapy rarely exceed 5 years, so it is impossible to determine with certainty the frequency of long-term side effects with these drugs.

The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, Jürgen; Sepulcre, Guadalupe; Magni, Diego; Valentini, Luana; Singleton, Andrew; Micale, Fabio; Barbosa, Paulo

2013-04-01

Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, developing combined indicators, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and testing options for medium-range probabilistic drought forecasting across Europe. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.

Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

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Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

2009-01-01

Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

Long-term care-service use and increases in care-need level among home-based elderly people in a Japanese urban area.

Science.gov (United States)

Koike, Soichi; Furui, Yuji

2013-04-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of home-based long-term care insurance services on an increase in care need levels and discuss its policy implications. We analyzed care need certification and long-term care service use data for 3006 non-institutionalized elderly persons in a Tokyo ward effective as of October 2009 and 2010. Individual care need assessment intervals and their corresponding changes in care need level were calculated from data at two data acquisition points of care need assessment. Those who had been certified but did not use any long-term care insurance service were defined as the control group. The Cox proportionate hazard model was used to determine whether the use of a long-term care insurance service is associated with increased care need level. After adjusting for sex, age, and care need level, the hazard ratio for the probability of increased care need level among service users was calculated as 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.88; p Home-based long-term care service use may prevent an increase in care need level. Administrative data on care need certification and services use could be an effective tool for evaluating the long-term care insurance system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An assessment toolkit to increase the resilience of NWE catchments to periods of drought

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La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Larrue, Corinne

2013-04-01

In many North Western Europe (NWE) areas the balance between water demand and availability is under pressure, thus under water scarcity. In addition, NWE areas are adversely affected by changes in the hydrological cycle and precipitation patterns, thus droughts periods. Over the past thirty years, droughts have dramatically increased and NWE are not immune. The summer of 2003 caused 10 billion euro damage to agriculture. In April 2012 the South West of the UK has moved to environmental drought status. Water scarcity and drought problems in the EU are increasing: 11% of the European population and 17% of its territory have been affected to date. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these adverse impacts. 50% of the NWE area are planned to be affected in 2050. Although the problems caused by drought in NWE are currently not overwhelmingly visible early action should be taken to reduce costs and prevent damage. Adapting to drought in NWE is the transnational challenge of the DROP (governance in DROught adaPtation) project. The Commission's recent "Blue Print on European Waters" states that existing policies are good but the problem lays in implementation. So the future challenge for NWE regions is to improve the implementation, meaning both governance and measures. The problem of drought is relatively new in comparison with flooding for these Regions. This demands another approach with the interaction of different stakeholders. NWE countries have proven strategies for flood prevention; no such strategies exist for drought adaptation. To do this, DROP combines science, practitioners and decisions makers, realizing the science-policy window. Thus, the aim of the DROP project is to increase the resilience of NWE catchments to periods of drought. To tackle these issues DROP will develop a governance toolkit to be used by NWE regional water authorities and will test a few pilot measures on drought adaptation. The objectives of the project are 1) to promote the use of a

Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought?

Science.gov (United States)

Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.

2017-12-01

Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key

Monitoring and Assessing the 2012 Drought in the Great Plains: Analyzing Satellite-Retrieved Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Drought Indices, and Gross Primary Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siheng Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We examined the relationship between satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF and several meteorological drought indices, including the multi-time-scale standard precipitation index (SPI and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI, to evaluate the potential of using SIF to monitor and assess drought. We found significant positive relationships between SIF and drought indices during the growing season (from June to September. SIF was found to be more sensitive to short-term SPIs (one or two months and less sensitive to long-term SPI (three months than were the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI or the normalized difference water index (NDWI. Significant correlations were found between SIF and PDSI during the growing season for the Great Plains. We found good consistency between SIF and flux-estimated gross primary production (GPP for the years studied, and synchronous declines of SIF and GPP in an extreme drought year (2012. We used SIF to monitor and assess the drought that occurred in the Great Plains during the summer of 2012, and found that although a meteorological drought was experienced throughout the Great Plains from June to September, the western area experienced more agricultural drought than the eastern area. Meanwhile, SIF declined more significantly than NDVI during the peak growing season. Yet for senescence, during which time the reduction of NDVI still went on, the reduction of SIF was eased. Our work provides an alternative to traditional reflectance-based vegetation or drought indices for monitoring and assessing agricultural drought.

Drought effects on reproductive and growth characteristics in seed orchards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varol, T.; Ozel, H. B.; Bilir, N.

2017-01-01

Global climate change is one of the most important environmental problems, and it is also known that this change will lead to negative effects such as drought and increase in global temperature. This change is also estimated to increase its episodic effects negatively on growth and reproduction of the forest trees. In order to estimate the episodic or continuous effects of the drought, it is necessary to carry out studies based on long-term data. One of these studies are the investigation to be carried out on seed orchards that are one of the most important seed resources in forestry. Within this context, in this study, we determined to the reproductive and growth responses of the clones to the drought that continued in the most drought season (2012) for 2 subsequent years along with 65-year climate data for Red Pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) and Taurus Cedar (Cedrus libani Rich.). The relationships of SPEI values with seed characteristics and cone production were examined by using Spearman Correlation Analysis. According to the results obtained from this study, it was found that the severe drought was effected the reproductive characteristics of both of red pine and cedar. The effect of drought on the number of cone (r=-0.810, P=0.022) in red pine and on the number of 1-year-old cones (r=-0.40, P=0.027) and on cone moisture (r=-0.715, P=0.022) in cedar was quite evident. These results indicate that approximately 65% of the change in number of cone in Red Pine and approximately 51% of the change in moisture content of the cones in cedar can be explained with the drought. From the data, it is clear that the drought is effective on the cone yield and seed characteristics in seed orchards of both of Red Pine and Taurus Cedar species. (author)

A dwarf wheat mutant is associated with increased drought ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... was significantly higher than Jingdong 6. Most of the s-dwarf seedlings survived in recovering experiement after water loss. The stalk of s-dwarf seedling also showed reduced gravitropism. This is the first report about a new dwarf wheat mutant associated with increased drought resistance and altered stalk gravitropism.

The temporal response to drought in a Mediterranean evergreen tree: comparing a regional precipitation gradient and a throughfall exclusion experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Stpaul, Nicolas K; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Vogt-Schilb, Hélène; Rodríguez-Calcerrada, Jesus; Rambal, Serge; Longepierre, Damien; Misson, Laurent

2013-08-01

Like many midlatitude ecosystems, Mediterranean forests will suffer longer and more intense droughts with the ongoing climate change. The responses to drought in long-lived trees differ depending on the time scale considered, and short-term responses are currently better understood than longer term acclimation. We assessed the temporal changes in trees facing a chronic reduction in water availability by comparing leaf-scale physiological traits, branch-scale hydraulic traits, and stand-scale biomass partitioning in the evergreen Quercus ilex across a regional precipitation gradient (long-term changes) and in a partial throughfall exclusion experiment (TEE, medium term changes). At the leaf scale, gas exchange, mass per unit area and nitrogen concentration showed homeostatic responses to drought as they did not change among the sites of the precipitation gradient or in the experimental treatments of the TEE. A similar homeostatic response was observed for the xylem vulnerability to cavitation at the branch scale. In contrast, the ratio of leaf area over sapwood area (LA/SA) in young branches exhibited a transient response to drought because it decreased in response to the TEE the first 4 years of treatment, but did not change among the sites of the gradient. At the stand scale, leaf area index (LAI) decreased, and the ratios of stem SA to LAI and of fine root area to LAI both increased in trees subjected to throughfall exclusion and from the wettest to the driest site of the gradient. Taken together, these results suggest that acclimation to chronic drought in long-lived Q. ilex is mediated by changes in hydraulic allometry that shift progressively from low (branch) to high (stand) organizational levels, and act to maintain the leaf water potential within the range of xylem hydraulic function and leaf photosynthetic assimilation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Womanly World of Long Term Care: The Plight of the Long Term Care Worker. Gray Paper.

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Older Women's League, Washington, DC.

Long-term care workers (those who are paid to provide custodial care for long-term patients in nursing homes or at home) must care for a growing number of increasingly disabled or dependent persons. They are working for agencies and institutions under growing pressure to increase productivity. They face new training and competency requirements,…

Physiological and comparative proteomic analysis reveals different drought responses in roots and leaves of drought-tolerant wild wheat (Triticum boeoticum.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Liu

Full Text Available To determine the proteomic-level responses of drought tolerant wild wheat (Triticum boeoticum, physiological and comparative proteomic analyses were conducted using the roots and the leaves of control and short term drought-stressed plants. Drought stress was imposed by transferring hydroponically grown seedlings at the 3-leaf stage into 1/2 Hoagland solution containing 20% PEG-6000 for 48 h. Root and leaf samples were separately collected at 0 (control, 24, and 48 h of drought treatment for analysis. Physiological analysis indicated that abscisic acid (ABA level was greatly increased in the drought-treated plants, but the increase was greater and more rapid in the leaves than in the roots. The net photosynthetic rate of the wild wheat leaves was significantly decreased under short-term drought stress. The deleterious effects of drought on the studied traits mainly targeted photosynthesis. Comparative proteomic analysis identified 98 and 85 differently changed protein spots (DEPs (corresponding to 87 and 80 unique proteins, respectively in the leaves and the roots, respectively, with only 6 mutual unique proteins in the both organs. An impressive 86% of the DEPs were implicated in detoxification and defense, carbon metabolism, amino acid and nitrogen metabolism, proteins metabolism, chaperones, transcription and translation, photosynthesis, nucleotide metabolism, and signal transduction. Further analysis revealed some mutual and tissue-specific responses to short-term drought in the leaves and the roots. The differences of drought-response between the roots and the leaves mainly included that signal sensing and transduction-associated proteins were greatly up-regulated in the roots. Photosynthesis and carbon fixation ability were decreased in the leaves. Glycolysis was down-regulated but PPP pathway enhanced in the roots, resulting in occurrence of complex changes in energy metabolism and establishment of a new homeostasis. Protein metabolism

Compensation for PKMζ in long-term potentiation and spatial long-term memory in mutant mice.

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Tsokas, Panayiotis; Hsieh, Changchi; Yao, Yudong; Lesburguères, Edith; Wallace, Emma Jane Claire; Tcherepanov, Andrew; Jothianandan, Desingarao; Hartley, Benjamin Rush; Pan, Ling; Rivard, Bruno; Farese, Robert V; Sajan, Mini P; Bergold, Peter John; Hernández, Alejandro Iván; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

2016-05-17

PKMζ is a persistently active PKC isoform proposed to maintain late-LTP and long-term memory. But late-LTP and memory are maintained without PKMζ in PKMζ-null mice. Two hypotheses can account for these findings. First, PKMζ is unimportant for LTP or memory. Second, PKMζ is essential for late-LTP and long-term memory in wild-type mice, and PKMζ-null mice recruit compensatory mechanisms. We find that whereas PKMζ persistently increases in LTP maintenance in wild-type mice, PKCι/λ, a gene-product closely related to PKMζ, persistently increases in LTP maintenance in PKMζ-null mice. Using a pharmacogenetic approach, we find PKMζ-antisense in hippocampus blocks late-LTP and spatial long-term memory in wild-type mice, but not in PKMζ-null mice without the target mRNA. Conversely, a PKCι/λ-antagonist disrupts late-LTP and spatial memory in PKMζ-null mice but not in wild-type mice. Thus, whereas PKMζ is essential for wild-type LTP and long-term memory, persistent PKCι/λ activation compensates for PKMζ loss in PKMζ-null mice.

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Laaha

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude, pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity

Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

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Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

Historical fire and multidecadal drought as context for piñon - Juniper woodland restoration in western Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Shinneman, Douglas J.; Baker, William L.

2009-01-01

Fire is known to structure tree populations, but the role of broad-scale climate variability is less clear. For example, the influence of climatic “teleconnections” (the relationship between oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations and anomalous weather patterns across broad scales) on forest age structure is relatively unexplored. We sampled semiarid piñon–juniper (Pinus edulis–Juniperus osteosperma) woodlands in western Colorado, USA, to test the hypothesis that woodland age structures are shaped by climate, including links to oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations, and by past fires and livestock grazing. Low-severity surface fire was lacking, as fire scars were absent, and did not influence woodland densities, but stand-replacing fires served as long-rotation (>400–600 years), stand-initiating events. Old-growth stands (>300 years old) were found in 75% of plots, consistent with a long fire rotation. Juniper and piñon age structures suggest contrasting responses during the past several centuries to dry and wet episodes linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Juniper density increased slightly during periods of drought, positive (warm) AMO (after ∼10-year lag), and negative (cool) PDO. In contrast, piñon populations may still be recovering from a long, drought-filled period (AD 1620–1820), with pulses of recovery favored during cool AMO, warm PDO, and above-average moisture periods. Analysis of 20th-century tree establishment and instrumental climate data corroborate the long-term relationships between age structure and climate. After Euro–American settlement (AD 1881), livestock grazing reduced understory grasses and forbs, reducing competition with tree seedlings and facilitating climate-induced increases in piñons. Thus tree populations in these woodlands are in flux, affected by drought and wet periods linked to oceanic–atmospheric variability, Euro–American livestock grazing, and long

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

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Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

RISA progress in the development of drought indicators to support decision making

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Close, S.; Simpson, C.

2015-12-01

Communities around the country are increasingly recognizing the need to plan for water shortages and long-term drought. To build preparedness and help communities manage risk, researchers funded by NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Coping with Drought initiative through the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program are working to better understand these impacts across the country and work with communities and resource managers to develop adaptation strategies that meet their needs. The Coping with Drought initiative supports research involving the use of climate predictions and forecast information in decision-making across a range of sectors including agriculture, natural and water resources management, and public health. As a component of this initiative, the RISA program supported research and engagement to develop indicators of drought designed to be of most use to managers and planners grappling with severe and in some cases ongoing drought in their regions. Indicators are being developed for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas, water management in California, and native communities in Arizona. For instance, the California Nevada Applications Program (CNAP) RISA developed a percentile-based indicator system for analyzing historic droughts and characterizing the ongoing California drought. And in the Southwest, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) RISA has been working with the Hopi community on drought monitoring and planning to develop the first-ever Hopi Quarterly Drought Status Report which integrates scientific and local knowledge about drought. This presentation will discuss RISA's role in developing drought indicators based on engagement with decision makers and how this work fits into the larger role that RISAs are playing in the development of the NIDIS Regional Drought Early Warning Systems across the U.S.

Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

2014-12-01

Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in the developing world׳s drylands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Solh

2014-06-01

Drought is a climatic event that cannot be prevented, but interventions and preparedness to drought can help to: (i be better prepared to cope with drought; (ii develop more resilient ecosystems (iii improve resilience to recover from drought; and (iv mitigate the impacts of droughts. Preparedness strategies to drought include: (a geographical shifts of agricultural systems; (b climate-proofing rainfall-based systems; (c making irrigated systems more efficient; (d expanding the intermediate rainfed–irrigated systems. The paper presents successful research results and case studies applying some innovative techniques where clear impact is demonstrated to cope with drought and contribute to food security in dry areas. The CGIAR Consortium Research Program (CRP on “Integrated and Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems for Improved Food Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas” (in short, “Dryland Systems”, led by ICARDA, was launched in May 2013 with many partners and stakeholders from 40 countries. It addresses farming systems in dry areas, at a global level, involving 80 partner institutions. The Dryland Systems Program aims at coping with drought and water scarcity to enhance food security and reduce poverty in dry areas through an integrated agro-ecosystem approach. It will also deliver science-based solutions that can be adopted in regions that are not yet experiencing extreme shocks, but will be affected in the medium to long-term. The approach entails shifting the thinking away from the traditional focus on a small number of research components to take an integrated approach aiming to address agro-ecosystems challenges. Such an approach involves crops, livestock, rangeland, trees, soils, water and policies. It is one of the first global research for development efforts that brings “systems thinking” to farming innovations leading to improved livelihoods in the developing world. The new technique uses modern innovation platforms to involve all

Overexploitation and cumulative drought trend effect on Ras El Ain ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Boulos Abou Zakhem

2017-10-06

Oct 6, 2017 ... development of sustainable water resources management program to reduce long-term drought risks, ... Anatolian mountain chain at >1000 m ASL (Turk- ... due to climatic change effect by global warming. ... supply levels.

The impact of long-term water stress on relative growth rate and morphology of needles and shoots of Metasequoia glyptostroboides seedlings: research toward identifying mechanistic models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yanxiang; Equiza, Maria Alejandra; Zheng, Quanshui; Tyree, Melvin T

2011-09-01

Leaf morphology in the upper canopy of trees tends to be different from that lower down. The effect of long-term water stress on leaf growth and morphology was studied in seedlings of Metasequoia glyptostroboides to understand how tree height might affect leaf morphology in larger trees. Tree height increases water stress on growing leaves through increased hydraulic resistance to water flow and increased gravitational potential, hence we assume that water stress imposed by soil dehydration will have an effect equivalent to stress induced by height. Seedlings were subjected to well-watered and two constant levels of long-term water stress treatments. Drought treatment significantly reduced final needle count, area and mass per area (leaf mass area, LMA) and increased needle density. Needles from water-stressed plants had lower maximum volumetric elastic modulus (ε(max)), osmotic potential at full turgor (Ψ¹⁰⁰(π)) (and at zero turgor (Ψ⁰(π)) (than those from well-watered plants. Palisade and spongy mesophyll cell size and upper epidermal cell size decreased significantly in drought treatments. Needle relative growth rate, needle length and cell sizes were linear functions of the daily average water potential at the time of leaf growth (r² 0.88-0.999). We conclude that water stress alone does mimic the direction and magnitude of changes in leaf morphology observed in tall trees. The results are discussed in terms of various models for leaf growth rate. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2011.

National water summary 1988-89: Hydrologic events and floods and droughts

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Paulson, Richard W.; Chase, Edith B.; Roberts, Robert S.; Moody, David W.

1991-01-01

National Water Summary 1988-89 - Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts documents the occurrence in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands of two types of extreme hydrologic events floods and droughts on the basis of analysis of stream-discharge data. This report details, for the first time, the areal extent of the most notable floods and droughts in each State, portrays their severity in terms of annual peak discharge for floods and annual departure from long-term discharge for droughts for selected stream-gaging stations, and estimates how frequently floods and droughts of such severity can be expected to recur. These two types of extreme hydrologic events are very different in their duration, cause, areal extent, and effect on human activities. Floods are short-term phenomena that typically last only a few hours to a few days and are associated with weather systems that produce unusually large amounts of rain or that cause snow to melt quickly. The large amount of runoff produced causes rivers to overflow their banks and, thus, is highly dangerous to human life and property. In contrast, droughts are long-term phenomena that typically persist for months to a decade or more and are associated with the absence of precipitation producing weather. They affect large geographic areas that can be statewide, regional, or even nationwide in extent. Droughts can cause great economic hardship and even loss of life in developing countries, although the loss of life results almost wholly from diminished water supplies and catastrophic crop failures rather than from the direct and obvious peril to human life that is common to floods. The following discussion is an overview of the three parts of this 1988-89 National Water Summary "Hydrologic Conditions and Water-Related Events, Water Years 1988-89," "Hydrologic Perspectives on Water Issues," and "State Summaries of Floods and Droughts." Background information on sources of atmospheric moisture to the

Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lo, Min-Hui; Wu, Wen-Ying

2018-05-01

The US state of Texas has experienced consecutive flooding events since spring 2015 with devastating consequences, yet these happened only a few years after the record drought of 2011. Identifying the effect of climate variability on regional water cycle extremes, such as the predicted occurrence of La Niña in winter 2017–2018 and its association with drought in Texas, remains a challenge. The present analyses use large-ensemble simulations to project the future of water cycle extremes in Texas and assess their connection with the changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection under global warming. Large-ensemble simulations indicate that both intense drought and excessive precipitation are projected to increase towards the middle of the 21st century, associated with a strengthened effect from ENSO. Despite the precipitation increase projected for the southern Great Plains, groundwater storage is likely to decrease in the long run with diminishing groundwater recharge; this is due to the concurrent increases and strengthening in drought offsetting the effect of added rains. This projection provides implications to short-term climate anomaly in the face of the La Niña and to long-term water resources planning.

Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment (DroughtPEX_China)

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yaohui

2017-04-01

Drought is one of the most common and frequent nature disasters in the world, particularly in China under the continental monsoonal climate with great variation. About thirty percent of economic loss caused by natural disasters is contributed by droughts in China, which is by far the most damaging weather disasters because of its long duration and extensive hazard areas. Droughts not only have a serious impact on the agriculture, water resources, ecology, natural environment, but also seriously affect the socio-economic such as human health, energy and transportation. Worsely, under the background of climate change, droughts in show increases in frequency, duration and scope in many places around the world, particularly northern China. Nowadays, droughts have aroused extensive concern of the scientists, governments and international community, and became one of the important scientific issues in geoscience research. However, most of researches on droughts in China so far were focused on the causes or regulars of one type of droughts (the atmosphere, agriculture or hydrological) from the perspective of the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Few of them considered a whole cycle of the drought-forming process from atmosphere-land interaction to agricultural/ecological one in terms of the land-atmosphere interaction; meanwhile, the feedback mechanism with the drought and land-atmosphere interaction is still unclear as well. All of them is because of lack of the relevant comprehensive observation experiment. "Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment" (DroughtPEX_China)is just launched in this requirement and background. DroughtPEX_China is supported by Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological) of China (Grant No.GYHY201506001)—"Drought Meteorology Scientific Research Project—the disaster-causing process and mechanism of drought in northern China". This project

Using Enhanced Grace Water Storage Data to Improve Drought Detection by the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors

Science.gov (United States)

Houborg, Rasmus; Rodell, Matthew; Lawrimore, Jay; Li, Bailing; Reichle, Rolf; Heim, Richard; Rosencrans, Matthew; Tinker, Rich; Famiglietti, James S.; Svoboda, Mark;

Probabilistic assessment of the long-term performance of the Panel Mine tailings area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balins, J.K.; Davis, J.B.; Payne, R.A.

1994-01-01

Rio Algom's Panel Uranium Mine originally operated between 1958 and 1961. It was reactivated in 1979 and operated continuously until 1990. In all, the mine produced about 14 million tons of potentially acid generating, low level radioactive uranium tailings; about 5% pyrite (by weight) with less than 0.1% U 3 O 8 . The tailings area consists of two rock rimmed basins. Topographic lows around the perimeter are closed by a total of six containment dams. To minimize the acid generating potential within the tailings, a decommissioning plan to flood the impounded tailings is being implemented. The anticipated performance of engineered structures (dams, spillways, channels, etc.) and the flooded tailings concept, over time periods in the order of thousands of years, have been addressed using probabilistic methods, based on subjective probability distributions consistent with available site specific information. The probable costs associated with long-term inspection and maintenance of the facility, as well as the probable costs and environmental consequences (e.g. tailings releases) associated with potential dam failures due to disruptive events such as floods, droughts and earthquakes were determined using a probabilistic model which consists of five, essentially independent, sub-models: a Maintenance Model, an Earthquake Response Model, a Flood Response Model, a Drought Model and an Integration Model. The principal conclusion derived from this assessment is that, for a well designed, constructed and maintained facility, there is very little likelihood that water and/or tailings solids will be released as a result of a containment dam failure; annual probability of the order of 10 -6 . Failure to maintain the facility over the long-term significantly increases the likelihood of dam failure with resultant release of water and suspended tailings solids

Long-term exposure to endogenous levels of tributyltin decreases GluR2 expression and increases neuronal vulnerability to glutamate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakatsu, Yusuke; Kotake, Yaichiro; Takishita, Tomoko; Ohta, Shigeru

2009-01-01

Tributyltin (TBT), an endocrine-disrupting chemical, has been used commercially as a heat stabilizer, agricultural pesticide and component of antifouling paints. In this study, we investigated the effect of long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT on neuronal glutamate receptors. Cultured rat cortical neurons were exposed to 1-50 nM TBT for 9 days (from day 2 to day 10 in vitro). The number of neurons was reduced by long-term exposure to 50 nM TBT, but not to 1-20 nM TBT. Long-term exposure to 20 nM TBT decreased the mRNA expression of glutamate receptors NR1, NR2A, GluR1 and GluR2, and increased that of NR2B, GluR3 and GluR4. GluR2 protein was also reduced by long-term exposure to TBT. Because AMPA receptor lacking GluR2 exhibits Ca 2+ permeability, we investigated whether Ca 2+ influx or glutamate toxicity was affected. Indeed, glutamate-induced Ca 2+ influx was increased in TBT-treated neurons. Consistent with this, neurons became more susceptible to glutamate toxicity as a result of long-term exposure to TBT and this susceptibility was abolished by an antagonist of GluR2-lacking AMPA receptor. Thus, it is suggested that long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT induces a decrease of GluR2 protein, causing neurons become more susceptible to glutamate toxicity.

Long-term exposure to endogenous levels of tributyltin decreases GluR2 expression and increases neuronal vulnerability to glutamate.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakatsu, Yusuke; Kotake, Yaichiro; Takishita, Tomoko; Ohta, Shigeru

2009-10-15

Tributyltin (TBT), an endocrine-disrupting chemical, has been used commercially as a heat stabilizer, agricultural pesticide and component of antifouling paints. In this study, we investigated the effect of long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT on neuronal glutamate receptors. Cultured rat cortical neurons were exposed to 1-50 nM TBT for 9 days (from day 2 to day 10 in vitro). The number of neurons was reduced by long-term exposure to 50 nM TBT, but not to 1-20 nM TBT. Long-term exposure to 20 nM TBT decreased the mRNA expression of glutamate receptors NR1, NR2A, GluR1 and GluR2, and increased that of NR2B, GluR3 and GluR4. GluR2 protein was also reduced by long-term exposure to TBT. Because AMPA receptor lacking GluR2 exhibits Ca2+ permeability, we investigated whether Ca2+ influx or glutamate toxicity was affected. Indeed, glutamate-induced Ca2+ influx was increased in TBT-treated neurons. Consistent with this, neurons became more susceptible to glutamate toxicity as a result of long-term exposure to TBT and this susceptibility was abolished by an antagonist of GluR2-lacking AMPA receptor. Thus, it is suggested that long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT induces a decrease of GluR2 protein, causing neurons become more susceptible to glutamate toxicity.

GRACE Gravity Satellite Observations of Terrestrial Water Storage Changes for Drought Characterization in the Arid Land of Northwestern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanping Cao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Drought is a complex natural hazard which can have negative effects on agriculture, economy, and human life. In this paper, the primary goal is to explore the application of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE gravity satellite data for the quantitative investigation of the recent drought dynamic over the arid land of northwestern China, a region with scarce hydrological and meteorological observation datasets. The spatiotemporal characteristics of terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC were first evaluated based on the GRACE satellite data, and then validated against hydrological model simulations and precipitation data. A drought index, the total storage deficit index (TSDI, was derived on the basis of GRACE-recovered TWSC. The spatiotemporal distributions of drought events from 2003 to 2012 in the study region were obtained using the GRACE-derived TSDI. Results derived from TSDI time series indicated that, apart from four short-term (three months drought events, the study region experienced a severe long-term drought from May 2008 to December 2009. As shown in the spatial distribution of TSDI-derived drought conditions, this long-term drought mainly concentrated in the northwestern area of the entire region, where the terrestrial water storage was in heavy deficit. These drought characteristics, which were detected by TSDI, were consistent with local news reports and other researchers’ results. Furthermore, a comparison between TSDI and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI implied that GRACE TSDI was a more reliable integrated drought indicator (monitoring agricultural and hydrological drought in terms of considering total terrestrial water storages for large regions. The GRACE-derived TSDI can therefore be used to characterize and monitor large-scale droughts in the arid regions, being of special value for areas with scarce observations.

Chemotherapy increases long-term survival in patients with adult medulloblastoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kocakaya, Selin; Beier, Christoph Patrick; Beier, Dagmar

2016-01-01

chemotherapy first-line survived significantly longer (mOS: 108 mo, 95% CI: 68.6-148.4) than patients treated with radiation alone (mOS: 57 mo, 95% CI: 39.6-74.4) or patients who received chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. This effect was not biased by tumor stage or decade of treatment. Importantly, (neo...... parts of treatment regimes; however, established prognostic factors and data clarifying the role of chemotherapy are missing. METHODS: We investigated 227 publications from 1969-2013, with 907 identifiable, individual patients being available for meta-analysis. Demographic data, risk stratification......)adjuvant chemotherapy also significantly increased the chance for long-term survival (>5 y) compared with radiotherapy alone or chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis clarifies relevant prognostic factors and suggests that chemotherapy as part of first-line therapy improves overall survival...

Anastomotic Leak Increases Distant Recurrence and Long-Term Mortality After Curative Resection for Colonic Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krarup, Peter-Martin; Nordholm-Carstensen, Andreas; Jorgensen, Lars N

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of anastomotic leak (AL) on disease recurrence and long-term mortality in patients alive 120 days after curative resection for colonic cancer. BACKGROUND: There is no solid data as to whether AL after colonic cancer surgery increases the risk of disease...

Survival analysis of increases in care needs associated with dementia and living alone among older long-term care service users in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Huei-Ru; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Imanaka, Yuichi

2017-08-15

Japan is known for its long life expectancy and rapidly aging society that there are various demands of older adults need to be fulfilled with, and one of them is long-term care needs. Therefore, Japan implemented the Long-Term Care Insurance in year 2000 for citizens who are above 65-year old and citizens who are above 40-year old in needs of long-term care services. This study was undertaken to longitudinally examine the influence of dementia and living alone on care needs increases among older long-term care insurance service users in Japan. Long-term care insurance claims data were used to identify enrollees who applied for long-term care services between October 2010 and September 2011, and subjects were tracked until March 2015. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted to examine increases in care needs over time in months. Cox regression models were used to examine the effects of dementia and living alone on care needs increases. The cumulative survival rates before care needs increased over the 4.5-year observation period were 17.6% in the dementia group and 31.9% in the non-dementia group. After adjusting for age, sex, care needs level, and status of living alone, the risk of care needs increases was found to be 1.5 times higher in the dementia group. Living alone was not a significant risk factor of care needs increases, but people with dementia who lived alone had a higher risk of care needs increases than those without dementia. Dementia, older age, the female sex, and lower care needs levels were associated with a higher risk of care needs increases over the study period. Among these variables, dementia had the strongest impact on care needs increases, especially in persons who lived alone.

Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

Science.gov (United States)

Gosz, J.

2001-12-01

The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage

Increased mitochondrial energy efficiency in skeletal muscle after long-term fasting: its relevance to animal performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourguignon, Aurore; Rameau, Anaïs; Toullec, Gaëlle; Romestaing, Caroline; Roussel, Damien

2017-07-01

In the final stage of fasting, skeletal muscle mass and protein content drastically decrease when the maintenance of efficient locomotor activity becomes crucial for animals to reactivate feeding behaviour and survive a very long period of starvation. As mitochondrial metabolism represents the main physiological link between the endogenous energy store and animal performance, the aim of this study was to determine how a very long, natural period of fasting affected skeletal muscle mitochondrial bioenergetics in king penguin ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) chicks. Rates of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation were measured in pectoralis permeabilized fibres and isolated mitochondria. Mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency and the activities of respiratory chain complexes were measured in mitochondria isolated from pectoralis muscle. Results from long-term (4-5 months) naturally fasted chicks were compared with those from short-term (10 day) fasted birds. The respiratory activities of muscle fibres and isolated mitochondria were reduced by 60% and 45%, respectively, on average in long-term fasted chicks compared with short-term fasted birds. Oxidative capacity and mitochondrial content of pectoralis muscle were lowered by long-term fasting. Bioenergetic analysis of pectoralis muscle also revealed that mitochondria were, on average, 25% more energy efficient in the final stage of fasting (4-5 months) than after 10 days of fasting (short-term fasted birds). These results suggest that the strong reduction in respiratory capacity of pectoralis muscle was partly alleviated by increased mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency. Such oxidative phosphorylation optimization can impact animal performance, e.g. the metabolic cost of locomotion or the foraging efficiency. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Semi-High Throughput Screening for Potential Drought-tolerance in Lettuce (Lactuca sativa) Germplasm Collections.

Science.gov (United States)

Knepper, Caleb; Mou, Beiquan

2015-04-17

This protocol describes a method by which a large collection of the leafy green vegetable lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) germplasm was screened for likely drought-tolerance traits. Fresh water availability for agricultural use is a growing concern across the United States as well as many regions of the world. Short-term drought events along with regulatory intervention in the regulation of water availability coupled with the looming threat of long-term climate shifts that may lead to reduced precipitation in many important agricultural regions has increased the need to hasten the development of crops adapted for improved water use efficiency in order to maintain or expand production in the coming years. This protocol is not meant as a step-by-step guide to identifying at either the physiological or molecular level drought-tolerance traits in lettuce, but rather is a method developed and refined through the screening of thousands of different lettuce varieties. The nature of this screen is based in part on the streamlined measurements focusing on only three water-stress indicators: leaf relative water content, wilt, and differential plant growth following drought-stress. The purpose of rapidly screening a large germplasm collection is to narrow the candidate pool to a point in which more intensive physiological, molecular, and genetic methods can be applied to identify specific drought-tolerant traits in either the lab or field. Candidates can also be directly incorporated into breeding programs as a source of drought-tolerance traits.

Are Mixed Tropical Tree Plantations More Resistant to Drought than Monocultures?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norbert Kunert

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Tropical tree plantations usually consist of a single exotic fast growing species, but recent research describes positive effects on ecosystem functions from mixed tropical tree plantations. In this review, we present the current knowledge of drought resistance of tropical mixed species plantations and summarize preliminary evidence from a tree biodiversity experiment in Panama. Converting mono-specific stands into mixed ones may improve stand stability and might reduce increasing abiotic and biotic disturbances due to climate change. However, little is known about the extent to which tropical tree species or tropical tree communities can resist increasing disturbances in the short term, e.g., water limitations due to increasing dry season intensity or length, or about their resilience after such disturbances and their capacity to adapt to changing conditions in the long term. Studies relating drought resistance and resilience to community diversity are missing. Further, we highlight the urgent need for a multifactorial manipulative throughfall reduction experiment in tropical environments. The outcome of such studies would greatly assist the forestry sector in tropical regions to maintain highly productive and ecologically sound forest plantations in a changing climate.

Assessing drought risk and irrigation need in northern Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Araya, A.; Stroosnijder, L.

2011-01-01

Long-term climate data of four stations in the northern Ethiopia were analyzed in combination with information from local farmers and documented materials. From this analysis, a suitable drought-assessing technique was developed and site-specific needs for supplementary irrigation were explored.

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B; Lousada, José L; Gaspar, Maria J; Correia, Isabel E; David, Teresa S; Soares, Pedro M M; Cardoso, Rita M; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M; Gouveia, Célia M

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster's vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster's production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region.

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B.; Lousada, José L.; Gaspar, Maria J.; Correia, Isabel E.; David, Teresa S.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Gouveia, Célia M.

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster’s vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster’s production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region. PMID:27570527

Soil type affects Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum (Pinaceae) seedling growth in simulated drought experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindsey, Alexander J; Kilgore, Jason S

2013-08-01

Effects of drought stress and media type interactions on growth of Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum germinants were investigated. • Soil properties and growth responses under drought were compared across four growth media types: two native soils (dolomitic limestone and granite), a soil-less industry standard conifer medium, and a custom-mixed conifer medium. After 35 d of growth, the seedlings under drought stress (reduced watering) produced less shoot and root biomass than watered control seedlings. Organic media led to decreased root biomass, but increased root length and shoot biomass relative to the mineral soils. • Media type affected root-to-shoot biomass partitioning of P. ponderosa var. scopulorum, which may influence net photosynthetic rates, growth, and long-term seedling survival. Further work should examine how specific soil properties like bulk density and organic matter influence biomass allocation in greenhouse studies.

Drought variation of western Chinese Loess Plateau since 1568 and its linkages with droughts in western North America

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Keyan; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.; Li, Jinbao; Zhou, Feifei; Guo, Guoyang; Dong, Zhipeng; Li, Yingjun

2017-12-01

Understanding long-term drought variations in the past can help to evaluate ongoing and future hydroclimate change in the arid western Chinese Loess Plateau (WCLP), a region with increasing demand for water resources due to the increasing population and socioeconomic activities. Here we present a new tree-ring chronology inform the WCLP, which shows coherent interannual variations with tree-ring chronologies from 7 neighboring areas across the WCLP, suggesting a common regional climate control over tree growth. However, considerable differences are observed among their interdecadal variations, which are likely due to growth disturbances at interdecadal timescales. To deal with this issue, we use a frequency based method to develop a composite tree-ring chronology from 401 tree-ring series from these 8 sites, which shows more pronounced interdecadal variability than a chronology developed using traditional methods. The composite tree-ring chronology is used to reconstruct the annual precipitation from previous August to current July from 1568 to 2012, extending about 50 years longer than the previous longest tree-ring reconstruction from the region. The driest epoch of our reconstruction is found in the 1920s-1930s, which matches well with droughts recorded in historical documents. Over the past four centuries, a strong resemblance between drought variability in the WCLP and western North America (WNA) is evident on multidecadal timescales, but this relationship breaks down on timescales shorter than about 50 years.

The Value of Long-Term Research at the Five USGS WEBB Catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Shanley, J. B.; Murphy, S. F.; Scholl, M. A.; Wickland, K.; Aulenbach, B. T.; Hunt, R.; Clow, D. W.

2017-12-01

Long-term catchment studies are sentinel sites for detecting, documenting, and understanding ecosystem processes and environmental change. The small catchment approach fosters in-depth site-based hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological process understanding, while a collective network of catchment observatories offers a broader context to synthesize understanding across a range of climates and geologies. The USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program is a network of five sites established in 1991 to assess the impact of climate and environmental change on hydrology and biogeochemistry. Like other networks, such as the USDA - Forest Service Experimental Forests and the Czech Geomon network, WEBB exploits gradients of climate, geology, and topography to understand controls on biogeochemical processes. We present examples from each site and some cross-site syntheses to demonstrate how WEBB has advanced catchment science and informed resource management and policy. WEBB has relied on strong academic partnerships, providing long-term continuity for shorter-term academic grants, which have offered rich graduate educational opportunities. Like other sites and networks, the long-term datasets and process understanding of WEBB provide context to detect and interpret change. Without this backdrop, we have no baseline to quantify effects of droughts, floods, and extreme events, and no test sites to validate process-based models. In an era of lean budgets for science funding, the long-term continuity of WEBB and other catchment networks is in jeopardy, as is the critical scientific value and societal benefits they embody.

The potential of SMAP soil moisture data for analyzing droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Rajasekaran, E.; Das, N. N.; Entekhabi, D.; Yueh, S. H.

2017-12-01

Identification of the onset and the end of droughts are important for socioeconomic planning. Different datasets and tools are either available or being generated for drought analysis to recognize the status of drought. The aim of this study is to understand the potential of the SMAP soil moisture (SM) data for identification of onset, persistence and withdrawal of droughts over the Contiguous United States. We are using the SMAP-passive level 3 soil moisture observations and the United States Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu) data for understanding the relation between change in SM and drought severity. The daily observed SM data are temporally averaged to match the weekly drought monitor data and subsequently the weekly, monthly, 3 monthly and 6 monthly change in SM and drought severity were estimated. The analyses suggested that the change in SM and drought severity are correlated especially over the mid-west and west coast of USA at monthly and longer time scales. The spatial pattern of the SM change maps clearly indicated the regions that are moving between different levels of drought severity. Further, the time series of effective saturation [Se =(θ-θr)/(θs-θr)] indicated the temporal dynamics of drought conditions over California which is recovering from a long-term drought. Additional analyses are being carried out to develop statistics between drought severity and soil moisture level.

Conference on the aftermath of drought in Nigeria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watts, M J

1977-06-01

The author has reviewed the Kano conference that met to address the medium and long-term consequences of the 1972-74 drought and their policy implications. The three-day meeting spoke to three broad topics: drought and famine in the West African context, which subsumed local coping strategies and related issues of self reliance; planned development and drought defenses, principally with irrigation, forestry, livestock and water resources; and finally, preparedness for emergencies. Recommendations were drawn up that may provide a framework for future drought planning strategies and related policy making. The author suggests that in spite of some worthwhile projects that emphasized self-reliance and the plans for contingency measures to combat the next famine, the tenor of these meetings was essentially interventionist. This was evident in the accent on irrigation projects, large-scale agriculture developments and capital-intensive water control. He also maintains that preoccupations with new Federal relief agencies, central grain reserves and plans to flood much of the Middle Belt all diverted attention away from the wider political and economic context of drought occurrence among the rural poor.

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

2017-11-03

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

Drought and flood effects on macrobenthic communities in the estuary of Australia's largest river system

Science.gov (United States)

Dittmann, Sabine; Baring, Ryan; Baggalley, Stephanie; Cantin, Agnes; Earl, Jason; Gannon, Ruan; Keuning, Justine; Mayo, Angela; Navong, Nathavong; Nelson, Matt; Noble, Warwick; Ramsdale, Tanith

2015-11-01

Estuaries are prone to drought and flood events, which can vary in frequency and intensity depending on water management and climate change. We investigated effects of two different drought and flow situations, including a four year long drought (referred to as Millennium drought) and a major flood event, on the macrobenthic community in the estuary and coastal lagoon of the Murray Mouth and Coorong, where freshwater inflows are strictly regulated. The analysis is based on ten years of annual monitoring of benthic communities and environmental conditions in sediment and water. The objectives were to identify changes in diversity, abundance, biomass and distribution, as well as community shifts and environmental drivers for the respective responses. The Millennium drought led to decreased taxonomic richness, abundance and biomass of macrobenthos as hypersaline conditions developed and water levels dropped. More taxa were found under very high salinities than predicted from the Remane diagram. When a flood event broke the Millennium drought, recovery took longer than from a shorter drought followed by small flows. A flow index was developed to assess the biological response subject to the duration of the preceding drought and flow volumes. The index showed higher taxonomic richness, abundance and biomass at intermediate and more continuous flow conditions. Abundance increased quickly after flows were restored, but the benthic community was initially composed of small bodied organisms and biomass increased only after several years once larger organisms became more abundant. Individual densities and constancy of distribution dropped during the drought for almost all macrobenthic taxa, but recoveries after the flood were taxon specific. Distinct benthic communities were detected over time before and after the drought and flood events, and spatially, as the benthic community in the hypersaline Coorong was split off with a salinity threshold of 64 identified by LINKTREE

Bivariate Drought Analysis Using Streamflow Reconstruction with Tree Ring Indices in the Sacramento Basin, California, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaewon Kwak

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Long-term streamflow data are vital for analysis of hydrological droughts. Using an artificial neural network (ANN model and nine tree-ring indices, this study reconstructed the annual streamflow of the Sacramento River for the period from 1560 to 1871. Using the reconstructed streamflow data, the copula method was used for bivariate drought analysis, deriving a hydrological drought return period plot for the Sacramento River basin. Results showed strong correlation among drought characteristics, and the drought with a 20-year return period (17.2 million acre-feet (MAF per year in the Sacramento River basin could be considered a critical level of drought for water shortages.

Photosynthesis of C3 and C4 Species in Response to Increased CO2 Concentration and Drought Stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HAMIM

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Photosynthetic gas exchange in response to increased carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2] and drought stress of two C3 (wheat and kale and two C4 species (Echinochloa crusgallii and Amaranthus caudatus were analysed. Plants were grown in controlled growth chambers with ambient (350 μmol mol−1 and doubled ambient [CO2]. Drought was given by withholding water until the plants severely wilted, whereas the control plants were watered daily. Even though stomatal conductance (Gs of C4 species either under ambient or double [CO2] was lower than those in C3, doubled [CO2] decreased Gs of all species under well watered conditions. As a result, the plants grown under doubled [CO2] transpired less water than those grown under ambient [CO2]. Photosynthesis (Pn of the C4 species was sustained during moderate drought when those of the C3 species decreased significantly. Doubled [CO2] increased photosynthesis of C3 but not of C4 species. Increased [CO2] was only able to delay Pn reduction of all species due to the drought, but not remove it completely. The positive effects of increased [CO2] during moderate drought and the disappearance of it under severe drought suggesting that metabolic effect may limit photosynthesis under severe drought.

Photosynthesis of C3 and C4 Species in Response to Increased CO2 Concentration and Drought Stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HAMIM

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Photosynthetic gas exchange in response to increased carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2] and drought stress of two C3 (wheat and kale and two C4 species (Echinochloa crusgallii and Amaranthus caudatus were analysed. Plants were grown in controlled growth chambers with ambient (350 mol mol-1 and doubled ambient [CO2]. Drought was given by withholding water until the plants severely wilted, whereas the control plants were watered daily. Even though stomatal conductance (Gs of C4 species either under ambient or double [CO2] was lower than those in C3, doubled [CO2] decreased Gs of all species under well watered conditions. As a result, the plants grown under doubled [CO2] transpired less water than those grown under ambient [CO2]. Photosynthesis (Pn of the C4 species was sustained during moderate drought when those of the C3 species decreased significantly. Doubled [CO2] increased photosynthesis of C3 but not of C4 species. Increased [CO2] was only able to delay Pn reduction of all species due to the drought, but not remove it completely. The positive effects of increased [CO2] during moderate drought and the disappearance of it under severe drought suggesting that metabolic effect may limit photosynthesis under severe drought.

The effects of the recent minimum temperature and water deficit increases on Pinus pinaster wood radial growth and density in southern Portugal.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathy Béatrice Kurz Besson

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events.To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a P. pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011.We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster’s vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster’s production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region.

Users' reaction to the drought of 2014 in Lebanon; quantifying the effects

Science.gov (United States)

Farajalla, Nadim; Haydamous, Patricia; El Hajj, Rana

2016-04-01

A drought that Lebanon witnessed during the water cycle of 2013-2014 seemed to mimic the expected decrease in precipitation projected in one of the 2020 scenarios reported in Lebanon's second national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Nationally, data and assessment studies on drought impacts are generally lacking, and thus, this drought presented an opportunity to quantify drought effects. In the aim of understanding the effect drought has on the Lebanese economy, and its different sectors, a survey was conducted to set a baseline of the changes in the direct cost of water as well as other impacts that might have resulted on the water users. The survey reached out to different sectors to include the touristic establishments, industries, agriculture holders, and households. The sample selection and the data collection underwent several controls in order to ensure unbiased data. Moreover, a descriptive analysis was produced from the survey results, using STATA and Microsoft Excel. The main results have shown a shift of dependency towards water tankers during the drought season as opposed to the normal higher dependency on the public networks and private wells. Moreover, the cost incurred in general showed an average of 32% increase to the previous water bills across the different sectors, this in return is expected to have ripple effects on the national economy accounting for around 13.5% of GDP. However, the survey showed that little was done in terms of long term adaptation on the consumers' side, where most of the adaptation done included awareness campaigns for an economized water usage on the short term. The survey brought forward the un-preparedness of the country to react to such extreme events due to the absence of drought preparedness and management plan. . The results highlight the projected losses the country will have if no proper adaptation measures were taken. These impacts were caused by a one-year drought

Drought's legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die-off and portends increased future risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderegg, William R L; Plavcová, Lenka; Anderegg, Leander D L; Hacke, Uwe G; Berry, Joseph A; Field, Christopher B

2013-04-01

Forest mortality constitutes a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Recent drought-induced, widespread forest die-offs highlight that climate change could accelerate forest mortality with its diverse and potentially severe consequences for the global carbon cycle, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. How trees die during drought over multiple years remains largely unknown and precludes mechanistic modeling and prediction of forest die-off with climate change. Here, we examine the physiological basis of a recent multiyear widespread die-off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) across much of western North America. Using observations from both native trees while they are dying and a rainfall exclusion experiment on mature trees, we measure hydraulic performance over multiple seasons and years and assess pathways of accumulated hydraulic damage. We test whether accumulated hydraulic damage can predict the probability of tree survival over 2 years. We find that hydraulic damage persisted and increased in dying trees over multiple years and exhibited few signs of repair. This accumulated hydraulic deterioration is largely mediated by increased vulnerability to cavitation, a process known as cavitation fatigue. Furthermore, this hydraulic damage predicts the probability of interyear stem mortality. Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deterioration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage. As the most widespread tree species in North America, increasing vulnerability to drought in these forests has important ramifications for ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and ecosystem carbon balance. Our results provide a foundation for incorporating accumulated drought impacts into climate-vegetation models. Finally, our findings highlight the

The Long Term Effect on Children of Increasing the Length of Parents' Birth Related Leave

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wurtz, Astrid

related leave from 14 to 20 weeks. We use differences-in-differences regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of the leave reform and it estimated whether such a large increase in the mandated leave period has a large measurable and persistent effect on children's cognitive...... and educational outcomes. A 100% sample Danish population born in May, June, July, and August 1983, 1984, and 1985 and a dataset with Danish PISA-2000 scores are used for the estimations. Preliminary results indicate there is no positive effect on children's cognitive outcomes from increasing parents' mandated......    The length of parents' total birth related leave was increased with almost 50% in 1984 in Denmark. The previous length of the Danish maternity leave was long, especially compared to e.g. the U.S. today. This paper investigates the long term effects on children of increasing length of birth...

The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

2001-01-01

Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river's annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period

Science.gov (United States)

Seyam, Mohammed; Othman, Faridah

2015-07-01

Studying the long-term changes of streamflow is an important tool for enhancing water resource and river system planning, design, and management. The aim of this work is to identify the long-term variations in annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010 in the Selangor River, which is one of the main tropical rivers in Malaysia. Initially, the data underwent preliminary independence, normality, and homogeneity testing using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapiro-Wilk and Pettitt's tests, respectively. The work includes a study and analysis of the changes through nine variables describing the annual streamflow and variations in the yearly duration of high and low streamflows. The analyses were conducted via two time scales: yearly and sub-periodic. The sub-periods were obtained by segmenting the 50 years into seven sub-periods by two techniques, namely the change-point test and direct method. Even though analysis revealed nearly negligible changes in mean annual flow over the study period, the maximum annual flow generally increased while the minimum annual flow significantly decreased with respect to time. It was also observed that the variables describing the dispersion in streamflow continually increased with respect to time. An obvious increase was detected in the yearly duration of danger level of streamflow, a slight increase was noted in the yearly duration of warning and alert levels, and a slight decrease in the yearly duration of low streamflow was found. The perceived changes validate the existence of long-term changes in annual streamflow regime, which increase the probability of floods and droughts occurring in future. In light of the results, attention should be drawn to developing water resource management and flood protection plans in order to avert the harmful effects potentially resulting from the expected changes in annual streamflow regime.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Littell, Jeremy; Peterson, David L.; Riley, Karin L.; Yongquiang Liu,; Luce, Charles H.

2016-01-01

The historical and pre-settlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate—including short- and long-term droughts—are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.

Drought monitoring over the Horn of Africa using remotely sensed evapotranspiration, soil moisture and vegetation parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermans, J.; Gokmen, M.; Eden, U.; Abou Ali, M.; Vekerdy, Z.; Su, Z.

2012-04-01

The need to good drought monitoring and management for the Horn of Africa has never been greater. This ongoing drought is the largest in the past sixty years and is effecting the life of around 10 million people, according to the United Nations. The impact of drought is most apparent in food security and health. In addition secondary problems arise related to the drought such as large migration; more than 15000 Somalia have fled to neighboring countries to escape the problems caused by the drought. These problems will only grow in the future to larger areas due to increase in extreme weather patterns due to global climate change. Monitoring drought impact and managing the drought effects are therefore of critical importance. The impact of a drought is hard to characterize as drought depends on several parameters, like precipitation, land use, irrigation. Consequently the effects of the drought vary spatially and range from short-term to long-term. For this reason a drought event can be characterized into four categories: meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economical. In terms of food production the agricultural drought, or short term dryness near the surface layer, is most important. This drought is usually characterized by low soil moisture content in the root zone, decreased evapotranspiration, and changes in vegetation vigor. All of these parameters can be detected with good accuracy from space. The advantage of remote sensing in Drought monitoring is evident. Drought monitoring is usually performed using drought indices, like the Palmer Index (PDSI), Crop Moisture Index (CMI), Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). With the introduction of remote sensing several indices of these have shown great potential for large scale application. These indices however all incorporate precipitation as the main surface parameter neglecting the response of the surface to the dryness. More recently two agricultural drought indices, the EvapoTranspiration Deficit

Groundwater Governance and the Growth of Center Pivot Irrigation in Cimarron County, OK and Union County, NM: Implications for Community Vulnerability to Drought

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Kathryn Wenger

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Cimarron County, Oklahoma and Union County, New Mexico, neighboring counties in the Southern High Plains, are part of a vital agricultural region in the United States. This region experiences extended periods of cyclical drought threatening its ability to produce, creating an incentive for extensive center pivot irrigation (CPI. Center pivots draw from the rapidly depleting High Plains Aquifer System. As a result, the prospect of long-term sustainability for these agricultural communities is questionable. We use Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems to quantify growth in land irrigated by CPI between the 1950s and 2014, and key informant interviews to explore local perspectives on the causes and impact of such growth. In Cimarron County, OK, CPI increased by the mid-1980s, and has continually increased since. Results suggest adaptation to drought, a depleting aquifer, high corn prices, and less rigid groundwater regulations contribute to CPI growth. Conversely, CPI in Union County, NM, increased until 2010, and then declined. Results also suggest that drought-related agricultural changes and more aggressive well drilling regulations contribute to this decrease. Nevertheless, in both counties, there is a growing concern over the depleting aquifer, the long-term sustainability of CPI, and the region’s economic future.

Soil Type Affects Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum (Pinaceae Seedling Growth in Simulated Drought Experiments

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Alexander J. Lindsey

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Premise of the study: Effects of drought stress and media type interactions on growth of Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum germinants were investigated. Methods and Results: Soil properties and growth responses under drought were compared across four growth media types: two native soils (dolomitic limestone and granite, a soil-less industry standard conifer medium, and a custom-mixed conifer medium. After 35 d of growth, the seedlings under drought stress (reduced watering produced less shoot and root biomass than watered control seedlings. Organic media led to decreased root biomass, but increased root length and shoot biomass relative to the mineral soils. Conclusions: Media type affected root-to-shoot biomass partitioning of P. ponderosa var. scopulorum, which may influence net photosynthetic rates, growth, and long-term seedling survival. Further work should examine how specific soil properties like bulk density and organic matter influence biomass allocation in greenhouse studies.

Elevated CO2 did not mitigate the effect of a short-term drought on biological soil crusts

Science.gov (United States)

Wertin, Timothy M.; Phillips, Susan L.; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are critical components of arid and semi-arid ecosystems that contribute significantly to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fixation, water retention, soil stability, and seedling recruitment. While dry-land ecosystems face a number of environmental changes, our understanding of how biocrusts may respond to such perturbation remains notably poor. To determine the effect that elevated CO2 may have on biocrust composition, cover, and function, we measured percent soil surface cover, effective quantum yield, and pigment concentrations of naturally occurring biocrusts growing in ambient and elevated CO2 at the desert study site in Nevada, USA, from spring 2005 through spring 2007. During the experiment, a year-long drought allowed us to explore the interacting effects that elevated CO2 and water availability may have on biocrust cover and function. We found that, regardless of CO2 treatment, precipitation was the major regulator of biocrust cover. Drought reduced moss and lichen cover to near-zero in both ambient and elevated CO2 plots, suggesting that elevated CO2 did not alleviate water stress or increase C fixation to levels sufficient to mitigate drought-induced reduction in cover. In line with this result, lichen quantum yield and soil cyanobacteria pigment concentrations appeared more strongly dependent upon recent precipitation than CO2 treatment, although we did find evidence that, when hydrated, elevated CO2 increased lichen C fixation potential. Thus, an increase in atmospheric CO2 may only benefit biocrusts if overall climate patterns shift to create a wetter soil environment.

Employer-sponsored long-term care insurance: best practices for increasing sponsorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Pincus, J

2000-04-01

Behind the enthusiasm of policymakers for long-term care (LTC) insurance is the belief that increased ownership of private LTC insurance will reduce the government's future liability for financing the nation's LTC needs, currently projected by the Congressional Budget Office to increase by 2.6 percent annually between 2000 and 2040. Some observers say that sustained economic growth could keep these increased expenditures at the same share of total GDP; others argue that current federal expenditure trends will become unsustainable without large tax increases. The potential of the employer-sponsored group LTC market to stave off a national LTC financing crisis has recently started to receive popular notice in the news media. However, for the potential of the group LTC market to be realized, there must be widespread employer sponsorship of group LTC plans and significant participation levels among eligible employees in these plans. The present analysis of industry data estimates the LTC plan sponsorship rate for all U.S. employers with 10 or more employees at 0.2 percent. The sponsorship rate among large employers is significantly higher (8.7 percent). The greatest growth opportunities are projected to lie in the smaller employer market, because it is enormous and virtually untapped. Nonsponsors cite a variety of barriers to employer sponsorship of LTC plans. For many nonsponsors, the most important obstacles are the intrinsic characteristics of their work forces: employees are too young, transient, part-time, and/or low-income to be suitable for LTC insurance. For many others, lack of awareness and low priority are the primary obstacles. Because group LTC insurance has been widely available for only 10 years, many benefits managers view it as "too new and untested." Prior to the passage of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), in August 1996, the tax treatment of long-term care insurance premiums was unclear because Congress had not

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Littell, Jeremy S; Peterson, David L; Riley, Karin L; Liu, Yongquiang; Luce, Charles H

2016-07-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Effects of Drought on Xylem Anatomy and Water-Use Efficiency of Two Co-Occurring Pine Species

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Dario Martin-Benito

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Exploring how drought influences growth, performance, and survival in different species is crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. Here, we investigate the responses of two co-occurring pines (Pinus nigra and Pinus sylvestris to interannual drought in east-central Spain by dendrochronological and wood anatomical features integrated with isotopic ratios of carbon (δ13C and oxygen (δ18O in tree rings. Our results showed that drought induces both species to allocate less carbon to build tracheid cell-walls but increases tracheid lumen diameters, particularly in the transition wood between early and latewood, potentially maximizing hydraulic conductivity but reducing resistance to embolism at a critical phase during the growing season. The thicker cell-wall-to-lumen ratio in P. nigra could imply that its xylem may be more resistant to bending stress and drought-induced cavitation than P. sylvestris. In contrast, the higher intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE in P. sylvestris suggests that it relies more on a water-saving strategy. Our results suggest that narrower cell-walls and reduced growth under drought are not necessarily linked to increased iWUE. At our site P. nigra showed a higher growth plasticity, grew faster and was more competitive than P. sylvestris. In the long term, these sustained differences in iWUE and anatomical characters could affect forest species performance and composition, particularly under increased drought stress.

Anatomy of Human Interventions on the Alteration of Drought Risk over the Conterminous US

Science.gov (United States)

He, X.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.

2017-12-01

drought events. This integrated hydrological modeling framework enables attribution of different HI impacts to probabilistic risk assessment, which in turn helps policy-makers better evaluate their long-term policy development for assessing potential water infrastructure investments in mitigating drought.

Relation of increased short-term variability of QT interval to congenital long-QT syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hinterseer, Martin; Beckmann, Britt-Maria; Thomsen, Morten B

2009-01-01

Apart from clinical symptoms the diagnosis and risk stratification in long-QT syndrome (LQTS) is usually based on the surface electrocardiogram. Studies have indicated that not only prolongation of the QT interval but also an increased short-term variability of QT interval (STV(QT)) is a marker...... that an STV(QT) of 4.9 ms was the optimal cut-off value to predict mutation carriers. When incorporating an STV(QT) >4.9 ms for those whose QTc interval was within the normal limits, sensitivity to distinguish mutation carriers increased to 83% with a specificity of 68%, so that another 15 mutation carriers...

Comparative Physiological and Molecular Analyses of Two Contrasting Flue-Cured Tobacco Genotypes under Progressive Drought Stress

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Xinhong Su

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Drought is a major environmental factor that limits crop growth and productivity. Flue-cured tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum is one of the most important commercial crops worldwide and its productivity is vulnerable to drought. However, comparative analyses of physiological, biochemical and gene expression changes in flue-cured tobacco varieties differing in drought tolerance under long-term drought stress are scarce. In this study, drought stress responses of two flue-cured tobacco varieties, LJ851 and JX6007, were comparatively studied at the physiological and transcriptional levels. After exposing to progressive drought stress, the drought-tolerant LJ851 showed less growth inhibition and chlorophyll reduction than the drought-sensitive JX6007. Moreover, higher antioxidant enzyme activities and lower levels of H2O2, Malondialdehyde (MDA, and electrolyte leakage after drought stress were found in LJ851 when compared with JX6007. Further analysis showed that LJ851 plants had much less reductions than the JX6007 in the net photosynthesis rate and stomatal conductance during drought stress; indicating that LJ851 had better photosynthetic performance than JX6007 during drought. In addition, transcriptional expression analysis revealed that LJ851 exhibited significantly increased transcripts of several categories of drought-responsive genes in leaves and roots under drought conditions. Together, these results indicated that LJ851 was more drought-tolerant than JX6007 as evidenced by better photosynthetic performance, more powerful antioxidant system, and higher expression of stress defense genes during drought stress. This study will be valuable for the development of novel flue-cured tobacco varieties with improved drought tolerance by exploitation of natural genetic variations in the future.

Long-term cigarette smoking is associated with increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity assessed by positron emission tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meeder, J.G. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Blanksma, P.K. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Wall, E.E. van der [Department of Cardiology, University Hospital, Leiden (Netherlands); Anthonio, R.L. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Willemsen, A.T.M. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Pruim, J. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Vaalburg, W. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Lie, K.I. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands)

1996-11-01

The pathophysiology of smoking-related coronary events in patients with normal coronary arteries is incompletely understood. This study was conducted to explore, in subjects without symptoms of cardiovascular disease, the long-term effects of smoking on regional coronary artery vasoactivity, especially during sympathetic stimulation. In ten smoking and ten non-smoking sex- and age-matched healthy volunteers, segmental myocardial perfusion was studied using dynamic parametric nitrogen-13 ammonia positron emission tomography at rest and during sympathetic stimulation evoked by the cold pressor stimulation. Smokers demonstrated a higher myocardial perfusion at rest (116{+-}17 ml/min/100 g vs 96{+-}20 ml/min/100 g, P <0.01) and an impaired myocardial perfusion increase during cold pressor stimulation (1.02{+-}0.15 vs 1.18{+-}0.17, P <0.05). The heterogeneity of perfusion, expressed as coefficient of variation, was significantly different between the smoking and the non-smoking group. The coefficient of variation of segmental myocardial perfusion was higher in smokers at rest (17.5%{+-}4.2% vs 13.5%{+-}1.9%, P <0.05) and during cold pressor stimulation (17.0%{+-}3.2% vs 13.9%{+-}1.8%, P <0.05). We conclude that the long-term effects of smoking in healthy volunteers are associated with (1) increased myocardial perfusion at rest, (2) impaired myocardial perfusion response to cold pressor stimulation, and (3) increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity both at rest and during cold pressor stimulation. These results may suggest that in healthy subjects the long-term effect of smoking is related to abnormal coronary artery vasoactivity, presumably induced by an interplay of regional endothelial dysfunction and autonomic dysregulation. (orig.). With 1 fig., 1 tab.

Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops

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Christoph Tim Krannich

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance.

Drought and Heat Waves: The Role of SST and Land Surface Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. At the shortest time scales it is often associated with heat waves that last only several weeks to a few months but nevertheless can have profound detrimental impacts on society (e.g., heat-related impacts on human health, desiccation of croplands, increased fire hazard), while at the longest time scales it can extend over decades and can lead to long term structural changes in many aspects of society (e.g., agriculture, water resources, wetlands, tourism, population shifts). There is now considerable evidence that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a leading role in the development of drought world-wide, especially at seasonal and longer time scales, though land-atmosphere feedbacks can also play an important role. At shorter (subseasonal) time scales, SSTs are less important, but land feedbacks can play a critical role in maintaining and amplifying the atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves and short-term droughts. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation and temperature variations on subseasonal to centennial time scales. This includes an assessment of predictability, prediction skill, and user needs at all time scales.

[Psychosocial issues of long-term cancer survivors].

Science.gov (United States)

Weis, J; Faller, H

2012-04-01

Although cancer incidence rates are increasing, recent statistical studies suggest that cancer patients are showing higher cure rates as well as improved overall survival rates for most cancer locations. These advances are explained by improved strategies in early diagnoses as well as improved cancer therapies. Therefore, the number of long-term cancer survivors has also increased, but only few studies, especially within the last years, have focused on psychosocial issues of this subgroup. Some studies show that overall quality of life of long-term cancer survivors is quite high and comparable to that of the normal population. Nevertheless, a substantial percentage of former patients shows reduced quality of life and suffers from various sequelae of cancer and its treatment. This review focuses on the most common psychosocial issue of long-term survivors such as reduced psychological wellbeing, neuropsychological deficits and cancer-related fatigue syndrome. Finally, recommendations for problem-oriented interventions as well as improvement of psychosocial care of long-term survivors are given.

Decadal summer drought frequency in China: the increasing influence of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian, Chengcheng; Yu, Jin-Yi; Chen, Ge

2014-01-01

Decadal variations in summer drought events during 1956–2005 are examined over Eastern China to identify their leading variability modes and their linkages to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and global warming. The PDO influence is found to dominate China drought frequency from the 1960s to early 1990s via modulating the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the Mongolian High. The four-pole drought pattern produced by the PDO diminished after the early 1990s, being replaced by a dipolar drought pattern that is produced by the AMO via a Eurasian wave train emanating from North Atlantic to China. The increasing influence of the AMO on China drought since the early 1990s is further shown to be a consequence of global warming. This study indicates that the early 1990s is a time when the Atlantic began to exert a stronger influence on climate over China and even larger part of Asia. (letter)

Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

Science.gov (United States)

Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

2017-12-01

institutional level of mandated institutes of lower Mekong countries. This is turn would help countries to prepare for and respond to drought situations by taking short and long-term risk mitigation measures such as adjusting cropping calendars, rainwater harvesting, and so on.

Soil type affects Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum (Pinaceae) seedling growth in simulated drought experiments1

Science.gov (United States)

Lindsey, Alexander J.; Kilgore, Jason S.

2013-01-01

• Premise of the study: Effects of drought stress and media type interactions on growth of Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum germinants were investigated. • Methods and Results: Soil properties and growth responses under drought were compared across four growth media types: two native soils (dolomitic limestone and granite), a soil-less industry standard conifer medium, and a custom-mixed conifer medium. After 35 d of growth, the seedlings under drought stress (reduced watering) produced less shoot and root biomass than watered control seedlings. Organic media led to decreased root biomass, but increased root length and shoot biomass relative to the mineral soils. • Conclusions: Media type affected root-to-shoot biomass partitioning of P. ponderosa var. scopulorum, which may influence net photosynthetic rates, growth, and long-term seedling survival. Further work should examine how specific soil properties like bulk density and organic matter influence biomass allocation in greenhouse studies. PMID:25202578

Spatio-temporal dynamics and synoptic characteristics of wet and drought extremes in Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Utkuzova, Dilyara; Khan, Valentina

2015-04-01

Synoptical-statistical analysis has been conducted using SPI index calculated for 478 stations with records from 1966 through 2013. Different parameters of SPI frequency distribution and long-term tendencies were calculated as well as spatial characteristics indicating drought and wetness propagation. Results of analysis demonstrate that during last years there is a tendency of increasing of the intensity of draught and wetness extremes over Russia. There are fewer droughts in the northern regions. The drought propagation for the European territory of Russia is decreasing in June and August, and increasing in July. The situation is opposite for the wetness tendencies. For the Asian territory of Russia, the drought propagation is significantly increasing in July along with decreasing wetness trend. Synoptic conditions favorable for the formation of wet and drought extremes were identified by comparing synoptic charts with the spatial patterns of SPI. For synoptic analysis, episodes of extremely wet (6 episodes for the APR and 7 episodes for the EPR) and drought (6 episodes for the APR and 6 for the EPR) events were classified using A. Katz' typology of weather regimes. For European part of Russia, extreme DROUGHT events are linked to the weather type named "MIXED", for Asian part of Russia - the type "CENTRAL". For European part of Russia, extreme WET events associated with "CENTRAL" type. There is a displacement of the planetary frontal zone into southward direction approximately for 5-25 degrees relatively to normal climatological position during WET extreme events linked to «EASTERN» classification type. Intercomparison of SPI calculated on the base of NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS for the same period and with the resolution 0,5 degree, month precipitation data, Era-Interim Daily fields archive for the period 1979-2014 with the resolution 0,5 degree reanalysis and observational precipitation data was done. The results of comparative analysis has been discussed.

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought.

Science.gov (United States)

von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard

2016-11-01

To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Enhancing drought tolerance in C(4) crops.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, Marta S; Araus, Jose Luis; van Heerden, Philippus D R; Foyer, Christine H

2011-05-01

Adaptation to abiotic stresses is a quantitative trait controlled by many different genes. Enhancing the tolerance of crop plants to abiotic stresses such as drought has therefore proved to be somewhat elusive in terms of plant breeding. While many C(4) species have significant agronomic importance, most of the research effort on improving drought tolerance has focused on maize. Ideally, drought tolerance has to be achieved without penalties in yield potential. Possibilities for success in this regard are highlighted by studies on maize hybrids performed over the last 70 years that have demonstrated that yield potential and enhanced stress tolerance are associated traits. However, while our understanding of the molecular mechanisms that enable plants to tolerate drought has increased considerably in recent years, there have been relatively few applications of DNA marker technologies in practical C(4) breeding programmes for improved stress tolerance. Moreover, until recently, targeted approaches to drought tolerance have concentrated largely on shoot parameters, particularly those associated with photosynthesis and stay green phenotypes, rather than on root traits such as soil moisture capture for transpiration, root architecture, and improvement of effective use of water. These root traits are now increasingly considered as important targets for yield improvement in C(4) plants under drought stress. Similarly, the molecular mechanisms underpinning heterosis have considerable potential for exploitation in enhancing drought stress tolerance. While current evidence points to the crucial importance of root traits in drought tolerance in C(4) plants, shoot traits may also be important in maintaining high yields during drought.

Socio-Economic Implications of Drought in the Agricultural Sector and the State Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In 2011, the most severe drought in Texas history caused $7.62 billion in losses in the agricultural sector alone. This paper analyzes ripple effects of the 2011 drought in Texas agriculture on the entire state economy retrospectively in an effort to foster discussion on targeted mitigation measures in the long term. By using an Input-Output and social accounting matrix model, direct effects on livestock, cotton, sorghum, wheat, corn, hay, and timber production, as well as indirect effects on other related sectors, and finally induced effects from changing consumers behavior have been estimated. According to the results, the 2011 drought caused economic losses of $16.9 billion in the entire Texas economy and increased the unemployment by around 166,895 people. The agricultural sector alone lost around 106,000 jobs. The cotton farming experienced 91% of revenue losses (as compared to 2010, while the livestock production lost 32% in revenue. The decreased production yields and limited market supply directly influence market prices for those products, which might create additional spillover effects on export and import quantities. The presented analysis can be helpful for designing policies to launch mitigation programs for drought events in the future.

Increasing adolescent HIV prevalence in Eastern Zimbabwe--evidence of long-term survivors of mother-to-child transmission?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey W Eaton

Full Text Available Recent data from the Manicaland HIV/STD Prevention Project, a general-population open HIV cohort study, suggested that between 2004 and 2007 HIV prevalence amongst males aged 15-17 years in eastern Zimbabwe increased from 1.20% to 2.23%, and in females remained unchanged at 2.23% to 2.39%, while prevalence continued to decline in the rest of the adult population. We assess whether the more likely source of the increase in adolescent HIV prevalence is recent sexual HIV acquisition, or the aging of long-term survivors of perinatal HIV acquisition that occurred during the early growth of the epidemic. Using data collected between August 2006 and November 2008, we investigated associations between adolescent HIV and (1 maternal orphanhood and maternal HIV status, (2 reported sexual behaviour, and (3 reporting recurring sickness or chronic illness, suggesting infected adolescents might be in a late stage of HIV infection. HIV-infected adolescent males were more likely to be maternal orphans (RR = 2.97, p<0.001 and both HIV-infected adolescent males and females were more likely to be maternal orphans or have an HIV-infected mother (male RR = 1.83, p<0.001; female RR = 16.6, p<0.001. None of 22 HIV-infected adolescent males and only three of 23 HIV-infected females reported ever having had sex. HIV-infected adolescents were 60% more likely to report illness than HIV-infected young adults. Taken together, all three hypotheses suggest that recent increases in adolescent HIV prevalence in eastern Zimbabwe are more likely attributable to long-term survival of mother-to-child transmission rather than increases in risky sexual behaviour. HIV prevalence in adolescents and young adults cannot be used as a surrogate for recent HIV incidence, and health systems should prepare for increasing numbers of long-term infected adolescents.

Drought monitoring of Tumen river basin wetlands between 1991 and 2016 using Landsat TM/ETM+

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Yu, H.; Zhu, W.; Lee, W. K.; Heo, S.

2017-12-01

Wetlands area described as "the kidney of earth" owing to the importance of functions for stabilizing environment, long-term protection of water sources, as well as effectively minimize sediment loss, purify surface water from industrial and agricultural pollutants, and enhancing aquifer recharge. Drought monitoring in wetlands is vital due to the condition of water supply directly affecting the growth of wetland plants and local biodiversity. In this study, Vegetation Temperature Condition Index derived from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature is used to observe drought status from 1991 to 2016. For doing this, Landsat TM/ETM+ data for six periods are used to analytical processing. On the other hand, soil moisture maps which are acquired from CMA Land Data Assimilation System Version 1.0 for validating reliability of drought monitoring. As a result, the study shows most of area at normal moist level (decreased 25.8%) became slightly drought (increased 29.7%) in Tumen river basin cross-border (China and North Korea) wetland. The correlation between vegetation temperature condition index and soil moisture are 0.69, 0.32 and 0.2 for the layers of 0 5cm, 0 10cm, and 10 20cm, respectively. Although climate change probably contributes to the process of drought by decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, human activities are shown as main factor that led to the process in this wetland.

Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

2005-01-01

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

Enhanced drought-tolerance in the homoploid hybrid species Pinus densata: implication for its habitat divergence from two progenitors.

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Ma, Fei; Zhao, Changming; Milne, Richard; Ji, Mingfei; Chen, Litong; Liu, Jianquan

2010-01-01

The homoploid hybrid species Pinus densata is restricted to alpine habitats that exceed the altitude range of its two parental species, Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus yunnanensis. Alpine habitats usually generate cold-induced water stress in plants. To understand the ecological differentiation between these three species, we examined their physiological responses to drought stress. Potted seedlings of three species were subjected to low, mild, moderate and severe water stress in an automatic-controlled glasshouse. Fifteen indicators of fitness were measured for each species in each treatment, and most of these decreased as drought increased. Pinus densata exhibited higher fitness than both parental species in terms of total dry mass production (TDM) and long-term water use efficiency (WUE(L)) across all treatments; several other ecophysiological traits were also extreme but not across every treatment, and not always in the highest stress treatment. These results indicate that extreme characters that have become well fixed in P. densata, confer a faster seedling growth rate and more efficient water use, which in turn should confer increased drought tolerance. These traits of P. densata likely promoted its ecological separation from its parental species and facilitated its successful colonization and establishment in high-altitude habitats.

Long-term cigarette smoking is associated with increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity assessed by positron emission tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meeder, J.G.; Blanksma, P.K.; Wall, E.E. van der; Anthonio, R.L.; Willemsen, A.T.M.; Pruim, J.; Vaalburg, W.; Lie, K.I.

1996-01-01

The pathophysiology of smoking-related coronary events in patients with normal coronary arteries is incompletely understood. This study was conducted to explore, in subjects without symptoms of cardiovascular disease, the long-term effects of smoking on regional coronary artery vasoactivity, especially during sympathetic stimulation. In ten smoking and ten non-smoking sex- and age-matched healthy volunteers, segmental myocardial perfusion was studied using dynamic parametric nitrogen-13 ammonia positron emission tomography at rest and during sympathetic stimulation evoked by the cold pressor stimulation. Smokers demonstrated a higher myocardial perfusion at rest (116±17 ml/min/100 g vs 96±20 ml/min/100 g, P <0.01) and an impaired myocardial perfusion increase during cold pressor stimulation (1.02±0.15 vs 1.18±0.17, P <0.05). The heterogeneity of perfusion, expressed as coefficient of variation, was significantly different between the smoking and the non-smoking group. The coefficient of variation of segmental myocardial perfusion was higher in smokers at rest (17.5%±4.2% vs 13.5%±1.9%, P <0.05) and during cold pressor stimulation (17.0%±3.2% vs 13.9%±1.8%, P <0.05). We conclude that the long-term effects of smoking in healthy volunteers are associated with (1) increased myocardial perfusion at rest, (2) impaired myocardial perfusion response to cold pressor stimulation, and (3) increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity both at rest and during cold pressor stimulation. These results may suggest that in healthy subjects the long-term effect of smoking is related to abnormal coronary artery vasoactivity, presumably induced by an interplay of regional endothelial dysfunction and autonomic dysregulation. (orig.). With 1 fig., 1 tab

Selflessness is sexy: reported helping behaviour increases desirability of men and women as long-term sexual partners.

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Moore, David; Wigby, Stuart; English, Sinead; Wong, Sonny; Székely, Tamás; Harrison, Freya

2013-09-03

Despite its short-term costs, behaviour that appears altruistic can increase an individual's inclusive fitness by earning direct (selfish) and/or indirect (kin-selected) benefits. An evolved preference for other-regarding or helping behaviour in potential mates has been proposed as an additional mechanism by which these behaviours can yield direct fitness benefits in humans. We asked 32 heterosexual women and 35 heterosexual men to rate the attractiveness of members of the opposite sex in the presence and the absence of information about helping behaviours. Reports of helping behaviour were associated with a significant increase in the attractiveness of both men and women as potential long-term sexual partners. Altruism also increased the attractiveness of men as potential partners for short-term flings, but to a lesser extent than when the same men were being considered for long-term relationships. Altruism did not affect the attractiveness of women as partners for short-term flings. Our results unite two important areas of evolutionary theory - social evolution and sexual selection - and extend the list of means by which helping behaviours, which appear at first glance to be costly to the actor, can in fact earn direct fitness benefits. Helping behaviours may be attractive because they signal 'good genes' and/or because they are perceived as a signal of likely provision of non-genetic benefits (e.g. parental care). Exactly why helping behaviours in a non-mating context might be attractive to potential mates, and whether they are honest signals of mate quality, remains to be elucidated.

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

Possible Climate Change/Variability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability of African Drought Prone Regions, its Water Resources and Capacity Building

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Gan, T. Y. Y.; Qin, X.; Ito, M.; Hülsmann, S.; Xixi, L.; Liong, S. Y.; Disse, M.; Koivusalo, H. J.

2017-12-01

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and landuse to drought-prone regions in West, Southern, and Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid-20th century. Based on the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, and that of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st Century and could become more vulnerable to impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase up to 8oC (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillation which could also affect water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions, are also discussed. Given traditional climate and hydrologic data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill in the data gap for Africa in future.

Private long-term care insurance and state tax incentives.

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Stevenson, David G; Frank, Richard G; Tau, Jocelyn

2009-01-01

To increase the role of private insurance in financing long-term care, tax incentives for long-term care insurance have been implemented at both the federal and state levels. To date, there has been surprisingly little study of these initiatives. Using a panel of national data, we find that market take-up for long-term care insurance increased over the last decade, but state tax incentives were responsible for only a small portion of this growth. Ultimately, the modest ability of state tax incentives to lower premiums implies that they should be viewed as a small piece of the long-term care financing puzzle.

Analyzing the uncertainty of ensemble-based gridded observations in land surface simulations and drought assessment

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Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modeling is one of the primary tools utilized for drought monitoring and drought early warning systems. Several sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling have been addressed in the literature. However, few studies have assessed the uncertainty of gridded observation datasets from a drought monitoring perspective. This study provides a hydrologic modeling oriented analysis of the gridded observation data uncertainties over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and its implications on drought assessment. We utilized a recently developed 100-member ensemble-based observed forcing data to simulate hydrologic fluxes at 1/8° spatial resolution using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and compared the results with a deterministic observation. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied at multiple timescales over the basin, and seasonal long-term trends and variations of drought extent is investigated for each case. Results reveal large uncertainty of observed datasets at monthly timescale, with systematic differences for temperature records, mainly due to different lapse rates. The uncertainty eventuates in large disparities of drought characteristics. In general, an increasing trend is found for winter drought extent across the PNW. Furthermore, a ∼3% decrease per decade is detected for snow water equivalent (SWE) over the PNW, with the region being more susceptible to SWE variations of the northern Rockies than the western Cascades. The agricultural areas of southern Idaho demonstrate decreasing trend of natural soil moisture as a result of precipitation decline, which implies higher appeal for anthropogenic water storage and irrigation systems.

Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Touchan, Ramzi; Meko, David M. [The University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, Tucson, AZ (United States); Anchukaitis, Kevin J. [Columbia University, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Sabir, Mohamed [National School of Forest Engineering, Sale (Morocco); Attalah, Said [University of Ourgla, Department of Agronomy, Ouargla (Algeria); Aloui, Ali [Institute of Sylvo-pastoral of Tabarka, Tabarka (Tunisia)

2011-07-15

Changes in precipitation patterns and the frequency and duration of drought are likely to be the feature of anthropogenic climate change that will have the most direct and most immediate consequences for human populations. The latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models project future widespread drying in the subtropics. Here, we reconstruct spatially-complete gridded Palmer drought severity index values back to A.D. 1179 over Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The reconstructions provide long-term context for northwest African hydroclimatology, revealing large-scale regional droughts prior to the sixteenth century, as well as more heterogeneous patterns in sixteenth, eighteenth, and twentieth century. Over the most recent decades a shift toward dry conditions over the region is observed, which is consistent with general circulation model projections of greenhouse gas forced enhanced regional subtropical drought. (orig.)

Plants increase laccase activity in soil with long-term elevated CO2 legacy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Partavian, Asrin; Mikkelsen, Teis Nørgaard; Vestergård, Mette

2015-01-01

[CO2] stimulate laccase activity. We incubated soil exposed to seven years of elevated or ambient field [CO2] in ambient or elevated [CO2] chambers for six months either with or without plants (Deschampsia flexuosa). Elevated chamber [CO2] increased D. flexuosa production and belowground respiration....... Interestingly, plants also grew larger in soil with an elevated [CO2] legacy. Plants stimulated soil microbial biomass, belowground respiration and laccase activity, and the plant-induced laccase stimulation was particularly apparent in soil exposed to long-term elevated [CO2] in the field, whereas laccase......Actively growing plants can stimulate mineralization of recalcitrant soil organic matter (SOM), and increased atmospheric [CO2] can further enhance such plant-mediated SOM degradation. Laccases are central for recalcitrant SOM decomposition, and we therefore hypothesized that plants and elevated...

Assessment of meteorological drought using SPI in West Azarbaijan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Horsfall

2017-05-13

May 13, 2017 ... The basis of drought indices is often based on measuring the deviation of precipitation values from long-term mean, during a specific period of time. The standard precipitation index (SPI) can be used for indicating the associated temporal and spatial variations. The aim of this research is the assessment of ...

Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems

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D’Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.

2013-01-01

Reducing tree densities through silvicultural thinning has been widely advocated as a strategy for enhancing resistance and resilience to drought, yet few empirical evaluations of this approach exist. We examined detailed dendrochronological data from a long-term (>50 yrs) replicated thinning experiment to determine if density reductions conferred greater resistance and/or resilience to droughts, assessed by the magnitude of stand-level growth reductions. Our results suggest that thinning generally enhanced drought resistance and resilience; however, this relationship showed a pronounced reversal over time in stands maintained at lower tree densities. Specifically, lower-density stands exhibited greater resistance and resilience at younger ages (49 years), yet exhibited lower resistance and resilience at older ages (76 years), relative to higher-density stands. We attribute this reversal to significantly greater tree sizes attained within the lower-density stands through stand development, which in turn increased tree-level water demand during the later droughts. Results from response-function analyses indicate that thinning altered growth-climate relationships, such that higher-density stands were more sensitive to growing-season precipitation relative to lower-density stands. These results confirm the potential of density management to moderate drought impacts on growth, and they highlight the importance of accounting for stand structure when predicting climate-change impacts to forest systems.

Life-cycle energy impacts for adapting an urban water supply system to droughts.

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Lam, Ka Leung; Stokes-Draut, Jennifer R; Horvath, Arpad; Lane, Joe L; Kenway, Steven J; Lant, Paul A

2017-12-15

In recent years, cities in some water stressed regions have explored alternative water sources such as seawater desalination and potable water recycling in spite of concerns over increasing energy consumption. In this study, we evaluate the current and future life-cycle energy impacts of four alternative water supply strategies introduced during a decade-long drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. These strategies were: seawater desalination, indirect potable water recycling, network integration, and rainwater tanks. Our work highlights the energy burden of alternative water supply strategies which added approximately 24% life-cycle energy use to the existing supply system (with surface water sources) in SEQ even for a current post-drought low utilisation status. Over half of this additional life-cycle energy use was from the centralised alternative supply strategies. Rainwater tanks contributed an estimated 3% to regional water supply, but added over 10% life-cycle energy use to the existing system. In the future scenario analysis, we compare the life-cycle energy use between "Normal", "Dry", "High water demand" and "Design capacity" scenarios. In the "Normal" scenario, a long-term low utilisation of the desalination system and the water recycling system has greatly reduced the energy burden of these centralised strategies to only 13%. In contrast, higher utilisation in the unlikely "Dry" and "Design capacity" scenarios add 86% and 140% to life-cycle energy use of the existing system respectively. In the "High water demand" scenario, a 20% increase in per capita water use over 20 years "consumes" more energy than is used by the four alternative strategies in the "Normal" scenario. This research provides insight for developing more realistic long-term scenarios to evaluate and compare life-cycle energy impacts of drought-adaptation infrastructure and regional decentralised water sources. Scenario building for life-cycle assessments of water supply

Observational evidence of a long-term increase in precipitation due to urbanization effects and its implications for sustainable urban living.

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Wai, K M; Wang, X M; Lin, T H; Wong, M S; Zeng, S K; He, N; Ng, E; Lau, K; Wang, D H

2017-12-01

Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Breaks in MODIS time series portend vegetation change: verification using long-term data in an arid grassland ecosystem.

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Browning, Dawn M; Maynard, Jonathan J; Karl, Jason W; Peters, Debra C

2017-07-01

Frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are forecast to increase in the 21st century. Predicting how managed ecosystems may respond to climatic extremes is intensified by uncertainty associated with knowing when, where, and how long effects of extreme events will be manifest in an ecosystem. In water-limited ecosystems with high inter-annual variability in rainfall, it is important to be able to distinguish responses that result from seasonal fluctuations in rainfall from long-term directional increases or decreases in precipitation. A tool that successfully distinguishes seasonal from directional biomass responses would allow land managers to make informed decisions about prioritizing mitigation strategies, allocating human resource monitoring efforts, and mobilizing resources to withstand extreme climatic events. We leveraged long-term observations (2000-2013) of quadrat-level plant biomass at multiple locations across a semiarid landscape in southern New Mexico to verify the use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data as a proxy for changes in aboveground productivity. This period encompassed years of sustained drought (2000-2003) and record-breaking high rainfall (2006 and 2008) followed by subsequent drought years (2011 through 2013) that resulted in a restructuring of plant community composition in some locations. Our objective was to decompose vegetation patterns derived from MODIS NDVI over this period into contributions from (1) the long-term trend, (2) seasonal cycle, and (3) unexplained variance using the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) model. BFAST breakpoints in NDVI trend and seasonal components were verified with field-estimated biomass at 15 sites that differed in species richness, vegetation cover, and soil properties. We found that 34 of 45 breaks in NDVI trend reflected large changes in mean biomass and 16 of 19 seasonal

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

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Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Trends in Snag Populations in Drought-Stressed Mixed-Conifer and Ponderosa Pine Forests (1997–2007

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph L. Ganey

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Snags provide important biological legacies, resources for numerous species of native wildlife, and contribute to decay dynamics and ecological processes in forested ecosystems. We monitored trends in snag populations from 1997 to 2007 in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws forests, northern Arizona. Median snag density increased by 75 and 90% in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, respectively, over this time period. Increased snag density was driven primarily by a large pulse in drought-mediated tree mortality from 2002 to 2007, following a smaller pulse from 1997 to 2002. Decay-class composition and size-class composition of snag populations changed in both forest types, and species composition changed in mixed-conifer forest. Increases in snag abundance may benefit some species of native wildlife in the short-term by providing increased foraging and nesting resources, but these increases may be unsustainable in the long term. Observed changes in snag recruitment and fall rates during the study illustrate the difficulty involved in modeling dynamics of those populations in an era of climate change and changing land management practices.

The Long-Term Effect on Children of Increasing the Length of Parents' Birth-Related Leave

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wurtz, Astrid

The length of parents. birth-related leave varies across countries and has been subject of some debate. I investigate the long-term e¤ects on children of increasing the length of parents.birth-related leave using a natural experiment from 1984 in Denmark when the leave length was increased from 14...... to 20 weeks. Regression discontinuity design is used to identify the causal e¤ect of the reform. A population sample of children born in 1984 and a dataset with PISA-2000 scores are used for the analysis. Results indicate that increasing parents. access to birth-related leave has no measurable e...

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

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Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2018-03-01

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

Polyamine biosynthesis in rice cultivars under salt stress and comparison with observations under drought stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Phuc Thi Do

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Soil salinity affects a large proportion of rural area and limits agricultural productivity. To investigate differential adaptation to soil salinity, we studied salt tolerance of 18 varieties of Oryza sativa using a hydroponic culture system. Based on visual inspection and photosynthetic parameters, cultivars were classified according to their tolerance level. Additionally, biomass parameters were correlated with salt tolerance. Polyamines have frequently been demonstrated to be involved in plant stress responses and therefore soluble leaf polyamines were measured. Under salinity, putrescine (Put content was unchanged or increased in tolerant, while dropped in sensitive cultivars. Spermidine (Spd content was unchanged at lower NaCl concentrations in all, while reduced at 100 mM NaCl in sensitive cultivars. Spermine (Spm content was increased in all cultivars. A comparison with data from 21 cultivars under long-term, moderate drought stress revealed an increase of Spm under both stress conditions. While Spm became the most prominent polyamine under drought, levels of all three polyamines were relatively similar under salt stress. Put levels were reduced under both, drought and salt stress, while changes in Spd were different under drought (decrease or salt (unchanged conditions. Regulation of polyamine metabolism at the transcript level during exposure to salinity was studied for genes encoding enzymes involved in the biosynthesis of polyamines and compared to expression under drought stress. Based on expression profiles, investigated genes were divided into generally stress-induced genes (ADC2, SPD/SPM2, SPD/SPM3, one generally stress-repressed gene (ADC1, constitutively expressed genes (CPA1, CPA2, CPA4, SAMDC1, SPD/SPM1, specifically drought-induced genes (SAMDC2, AIH, one specifically drought-repressed gene (CPA3 and one specifically salt-stress repressed gene (SAMDC4, revealing both overlapping and specific stress responses under these

Resilience of freshwater communities of small microbial eukaryotes undergoing severe drought events

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Marianne eSimon

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Small and shallow aquatic ecosystems such as ponds and streams constitute a significant proportion of continental surface waters, especially in temperate zones. In comparison with bigger lakes and rivers, they harbor higher biodiversity but they also exhibit reduced buffering capacity face to environmental shifts, such that climate global change can affect them in a more drastic way. For instance, many temperate areas are predicted to undergo droughts with increasing frequency in the near future, which may lead to the temporal desiccation of streams and ponds. In this work, we monitored temporal dynamics of planktonic communities of microbial eukaryotes (cell size range 0.2-5 µm in one brook and one pond that experienced recurrent droughts from 1 to 5 consecutive months during a temporal survey carried out monthly for two years based on high-throughput 18S rDNA metabarcoding. During drought-induced desiccation events, protist communities present in the remaining dry sediment, though highly diverse, differed radically from their planktonic counterparts. However, after water refill, the aquatic protist assemblages recovered their original structure within a month. This rapid recovery indicates that these eukaryotic communities are resilient to droughts, most likely via the entrance in dormancy. This property is essential for the long-term survival and functional stability of small freshwater ecosystems.

Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium

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Routson, Cody C.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; McKay, Nicholas P.

2016-01-01

Western North America (WNA) is rich in hydroclimate reconstructions, yet questions remain about the causes of decadal-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability. Teleconnection patterns preserved in annually-resolved tree-ring reconstructed drought maps, and anomalies in a global network of proxy sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, were used to reassess the evidence linking ocean forcing to WNA hydroclimate variability over the past millennium. Potential forcing mechanisms of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and individual drought and pluvial events—including two multidecadal-length MCA pluvials—were evaluated. We show strong teleconnection patterns occurred during the driest (wettest) years within persistent droughts (pluvials), implicating SSTs as a potent hydroclimate forcing mechanism. The role of the SSTs on longer timescales is more complex. Pacific teleconnection patterns show little long-term change, whereas low-resolution SST reconstructions vary over decades to centuries. While weaker than the tropical Pacific teleconnections, North Atlantic teleconnection patterns and SST reconstructions also show links to WNA droughts and pluvials, and may in part account for longer-term WNA hydroclimate changes. Nonetheless, evidence linking WNA hydroclimate to SSTs still remains sparse and nuanced—especially over long-timescales with a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than characterized during the 20th century.

Overexpression of Nitrate Reductase in Tobacco Delays Drought-Induced Decreases in Nitrate Reductase Activity and mRNA1

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrario-Méry, Sylvie; Valadier, Marie-Hélène; Foyer, Christine H.

1998-01-01

Transformed (cauliflower mosaic virus 35S promoter [35S]) tobacco (Nicotiana plumbaginifolia L.) plants constitutively expressing nitrate reductase (NR) and untransformed controls were subjected to drought for 5 d. Drought-induced changes in biomass accumulation and photosynthesis were comparable in both lines of plants. After 4 d of water deprivation, a large increase in the ratio of shoot dry weight to fresh weight was observed, together with a decrease in the rate of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation. Foliar sucrose increased in both lines during water stress, but hexoses increased only in leaves from untransformed controls. Foliar NO3− decreased rapidly in both lines and was halved within 2 d of the onset of water deprivation. Total foliar amino acids decreased in leaves of both lines following water deprivation. After 4 d of water deprivation no NR activity could be detected in leaves of untransformed plants, whereas about 50% of the original activity remained in the leaves of the 35S-NR transformants. NR mRNA was much more stable than NR activity. NR mRNA abundance increased in the leaves of the 35S-NR plants and remained constant in controls for the first 3 d of drought. On the 4th d, however, NR mRNA suddenly decreased in both lines. Rehydration at d 3 caused rapid recovery (within 24 h) of 35S-NR transcripts, but no recovery was observed in the controls. The phosphorylation state of the protein was unchanged by long-term drought. There was a strong correlation between maximal extractable NR activity and ambient photosynthesis in both lines. We conclude that drought first causes increased NR protein turnover and then accelerates NR mRNA turnover. Constitutive NR expression temporarily delayed drought-induced losses in NR activity. 35S-NR expression may therefore allow more rapid recovery of N assimilation following short-term water deficit. PMID:9576799

Long-term nitrogen regulation of forest carbon sequestration

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2009-12-01

It is well established that nitrogen (N) limits plant production but unclear how N regulates long-term terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration in response to rising atmospheric C dioxide (CO2)(Luo et al., 2004). Most experimental evidence on C-N interactions is primarily derived from short-term CO2 manipulative studies (e.g. Oren et al., 2001; Reich et al., 2006a), which abruptly increase C inputs into ecosystems and N demand from soil while atmospheric CO2 concentration in the real world is gradually increasing over time (Luo & Reynolds, 1999). It is essential to examine long-term N regulations of C sequestration in natural ecosystems. Here we present results of a synthesis of more than 100 studies on long-term C-N interactions during secondary succession. C significantly accumulates in plant, litter and forest floor in most studies, and in mineral soil in one-third studies during stand development. Substantial increases in C stock are tightly coupled with N accretion. The C: N ratio in plant increases with stand age in most cases, but remains relatively constant in litter, forest floor and mineral soil. Our results suggest that natural ecosystems could have the intrinsic capacity to maintain long-term C sequestration through external N accrual, high N use efficiency, and efficient internal N cycling.

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Laaha, Gregor; Gauster, Tobias; Delus, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe

2016-04-01

The year 2015 was hot and dry in many European countries. A timely assessment of its hydrological impacts constitutes a difficult task, because stream flow records are often not available within 2-3 years after recording. Moreover, monitoring is performed on a national or even provincial basis. There are still major barriers of data access, especially for eastern European countries. Wherever data are available, their compatibility poses a major challenge. In two companion papers we summarize a collaborative initiative of members of UNESCO's FRIEND-Water program to perform a timely Pan-European assessment of the 2015 drought. In this second part we analyse the hydrological perspective based on streamflow observations. We first describe the data access strategy and the assessment method. We than present the results consisting of a range of low flow indices calculated for about 800 gauges across Europe. We compare the characteristics of the 2015 drought with the average, long-term conditions, and with the specific conditions of the 2003 drought, which is often used as a worst-case benchmark to gauge future drought events. Overall, the hydrological 2015 drought is characterised by a much smaller spatial extend than the 2003 drought. Extreme streamflows are observed mainly in a band North of the Alps spanning from E-France to Poland. In terms of flow magnitude, Czech, E-Germany and N-Austria were most affected. In this region the low flows often had return periods of 100 years and more, indicating that the event was much more severe than the 2003 event. In terms of deficit volumes, the centre of the event was more oriented towards S-Germany. Based on a detailed assessment of the spatio-temporal characteristics at various scales, we are able to explain the different behaviour in these regions by diverging wetness preconditions in the catchments. This suggest that the sole knowledge of atmospheric indices is not sufficient to characterise hydrological drought events. We

Estimating the Impact of Drought on Groundwater Resources of the Marshall Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brandon L. Barkey

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Groundwater resources of small coral islands are threatened due to short-term and long-term changes in climate. A significant short-term threat is El Niño events, which typically induce a severe months-long drought for many atoll nations in the western and central Pacific regions that exhausts rainwater supply and necessitates the use of groundwater. This study quantifies fresh groundwater resources under both average rainfall and drought conditions for the Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI, a nation composed solely of atolls and which is severely impacted by El Niño droughts. The atoll island algebraic model is used to estimate the thickness of the freshwater lens for 680 inhabited and uninhabited islands of the RMI, with a focus on the severe 1998 drought. The model accounts for precipitation, island width, hydraulic conductivity of the upper Holocene-age sand aquifer, the depth to the contact between the Holocene aquifer and the lower Pleistocene-age limestone aquifer, and the presence of a reef flat plate underlying the ocean side of the island. Model results are tested for islands that have fresh groundwater data. Results highlight the fragility of groundwater resources for the nation. Average lens thickness during typical seasonal rainfall is approximately 4 m, with only 30% of the islands maintaining a lens thicker than 4.5% and 55% of the islands with a lens less than 2.5 m thick. Thicker lenses typically occur for larger islands, islands located on the leeward side of an atoll due to lower hydraulic conductivity, and islands located in the southern region of the RMI due to higher rainfall rates. During drought, groundwater on small islands (<300 m in width is completely depleted. Over half (54% of the islands are classified as “Highly Vulnerable” to drought. Results provide valuable information for RMI water resources planners, particularly during the current 2016 El Niño drought, and similar methods can be used to quantify

A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

2013-12-15

This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal Changes in Community Resilience to Drought Hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Mihunov, V.

2017-12-01

The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized. While considerable research on the climatological aspect of droughts has been conducted, studies on the resilience of human communities to the effects of drought remain limited. Understanding how different communities respond to and recover from the drought hazard, i.e. their community resilience, should inform the development of better strategies to cope with the hazard. This research assesses community resilience to drought hazard in South-Central U.S. and captures the temporal changes of community resilience in the region facing the climate change. First, the study applies the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) framework using the existing drought incidence, crop damage, socio-economic and food-water-energy nexus variables, which allows to assign county-level resilience scores in the study region and derive variables contributing to the resilience. Second, it captures the temporal changes in community resilience by using the model extracted from the RIM study and socio-economic data from several consecutive time periods. The resilience measurement study should help understand the complex process underlying communities' response to the drought impacts. The results identify gaps in resilience planning and help the improvement of the community resilience to the droughts of increasing frequency and intensity.

Increased ectomycorrhizal fungal abundance after long-term fertilization and warming of two arctic tundra ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clemmensen, Karina Engelbrecht; Michelsen, Anders; Jonasson, Sven Evert

2006-01-01

. This was caused partly by increased dominance of EM plants and partly by stimulation of EM mycelial growth. •  We conclude that cycling of carbon and nitrogen through EM fungi will increase when strongly nutrient-limited arctic ecosystems are exposed to a warmer and more nutrient-rich environment. This has...... the response in EM fungal abundance to long-term warming and fertilization in two arctic ecosystems with contrasting responses of the EM shrub Betula nana. •  Ergosterol was used as a biomarker for living fungal biomass in roots and organic soil and ingrowth bags were used to estimate EM mycelial production...

Regional drought shifts (1710-2010) in East Central Asia and linkages with atmospheric circulation recorded in tree-ring δ18O

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Guobao; Liu, Xiaohong; Trouet, Valerie; Treydte, Kerstin; Wu, Guoju; Chen, Tuo; Sun, Weizhen; An, Wenling; Wang, Wenzhi; Zeng, Xiaomin; Qin, Dahe

2018-04-01

Drought occurrence and duration in central Asia are of important socioeconomic, ecological, and geophysical significance and have received increasing research attention in recent years. Understanding long-term drought trends and their driving forces require reliable records of past drought variability with broad spatial representativeness. Here, we compiled four tree-ring δ18O records from eastern central Asia (ECA) and composited them into a drought-sensitive proxy to explore regional ECA moisture variations over the past 301 years (1710-2010 CE). A robust regional standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) reconstruction was established based on the tree-ring cellulose δ18O fractionation mechanism and statistically significant proxy-climate relationships. We identified prominent droughts in 1710-1770, 1810-1830, and the beginning of the twenty-first century, and a regime shift to a persistently wet period from the 1880s to 2000. Our reconstruction reveals the impact of drought and pluvial patterns on the decline of Zhungar Empire, and on historical agricultural and socio-economical activities, including increased migration into ECA during the 1770-1800 pluvial. Our findings also suggest that wet conditions in the twentieth century in ECA were related to a strengthening of the westerly circulation and thus shed light on large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics in central Asia.

Early warning system of drought for risk assessment and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chub, V.E.; Agaltseva, N.A.; Myagkov, S.V.

2004-01-01

In Article 10 point 2 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and Drought it is pointed out that the National Action Plans 'envisage the strengthening of the national basis of the climatic, meteorological and hydrological studies and the extending the possibilities for the creation of the system of the early drought forecasting'. The Pilot Project << Early warning system of Drought,, was executed in Uzbekistan at support of Germany project on Convention to combat Desertification (GTZ-CCD). The objective of the project is the creation of the regional automated information system for the early drought warning (AISEWS). In the framework of the project it is proposed to fulfil the main following tasks: - development of concepts of preparing the databases on drought factors and keeping on the databank of drought conditions on territory of Republic Uzbekistan; - the creation of the regional informational basis of the hydro meteorological and agrometeorological information and the system of its keeping on the basis of GIS technique; - analysis of hydro meteorological situations causing the drought in the Aral sea basin; - experimental agrometeorological (in the course of the field studies) and numerical estimation of the parameters of the model of the runoff formation and soil drought; - adaptation of the models complex set of the runoff formation for hydrological objects; - development of out the technique for the long-term drought forecasting basing on the mathematical models of the runoff formation in the river basin; -development of the computer information system for the early drought forecasting with the elements of the operational information transfer to the users. For the Central Asian region the drought means, first of all, the deficit of the water resources that is why the forecasting of the water availability in rivers in the years with the water deficit is of the utmost importance. The following tasks should be fulfilled for the achieving the designed

Drought monitoring with soil moisture active passive (SMAP) measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Ashok; Vu, Tue; Veettil, Anoop Valiya; Entekhabi, Dara

2017-09-01

Recent launch of space-borne systems to estimate surface soil moisture may expand the capability to map soil moisture deficit and drought with global coverage. In this study, we use Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture geophysical retrieval products from passive L-band radiometer to evaluate its applicability to forming agricultural drought indices. Agricultural drought is quantified using the Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) based on SMAP and soil properties (field capacity and available water content) information. The soil properties are computed using pedo-transfer function with soil characteristics derived from Harmonized World Soil Database. The SMAP soil moisture product needs to be rescaled to be compatible with the soil parameters derived from the in situ stations. In most locations, the rescaled SMAP information captured the dynamics of in situ soil moisture well and shows the expected lag between accumulations of precipitation and delayed increased in surface soil moisture. However, the SMAP soil moisture itself does not reveal the drought information. Therefore, the SMAP based SWDI (SMAP_SWDI) was computed to improve agriculture drought monitoring by using the latest soil moisture retrieval satellite technology. The formulation of SWDI does not depend on longer data and it will overcome the limited (short) length of SMAP data for agricultural drought studies. The SMAP_SWDI is further compared with in situ Atmospheric Water Deficit (AWD) Index. The comparison shows close agreement between SMAP_SWDI and AWD in drought monitoring over Contiguous United States (CONUS), especially in terms of drought characteristics. The SMAP_SWDI was used to construct drought maps for CONUS and compared with well-known drought indices, such as, AWD, Palmer Z-Index, sc-PDSI and SPEI. Overall the SMAP_SWDI is an effective agricultural drought indicator and it provides continuity and introduces new spatial mapping capability for drought monitoring. As an

Key mechanisms of metabolic changes in mountain pine and larch under drought in the Swiss National Park

Science.gov (United States)

Churakova, Olga; Bigler, Christof; Bryukhanova, Marina; Siegwolf, Rolf

2014-05-01

Forests are of great ecological, economic and social importance worldwide. In many regions they have been recently affected by water deficits during summer droughts due to increasing temperatures and shortage of precipitation (Allen et al. 2010). Climate models predict that drought frequency will continue to increase during the 21st century and beyond (CH 2011). Since the foundation of the Swiss National Park (SNP) in 1914 these forests have not been managed any more, which allows to study natural processes in these forest ecosystems. Since the 1990s, annual and spring temperatures increased in the SNP up to 0.5 ºC and 1.02 ºC, respectively, and average summer temperature increased up to 0.6 ºC. Annual precipitation decreased by 81 mm compared to the mean values (927 mm) from 1917 to 1989. Therefore, detailed studies of drought effects on the physiological functioning of trees over the last decades are needed. Recently, mortality processes of mountain pines were observed in the Swiss National Park (Bigler, Rigling 2013). It is of great interest to investigate and compare the physiological responses of mountain pine and larch to drought and to understand the mechanisms behind the mortality processes. The goal of our study is to investigate the key mechanisms of tree physiological responses to drought in the SNP using state-of-the-art methods of classical dendrochronology, tree physiology, stable isotope, and compound-specific isotope analyses. Long-term responses of mountain pine and larch trees from north- and south-facing sites to drought will be inferred from tree-ring width data. Based on climatic data a drought index will be calculated and reconstructed back in time. New chronologies for stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios derived from both pine and larch tree-ring cellulose will provide retrospective insight into the long-term whole-plant physiological control of gas exchange derived from estimates of stomatal conductance, photosynthetic rate and

Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Miah, Md Giashuddin; Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad; Jeong, Changyoon

2017-10-09

Drought is a critical issue, and it has a pressing, negative impact on agriculture, ecosystems, livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. The problem has been studied globally, but its regional or even local dimension is sometimes overlooked. Local-level drought assessment is necessary for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for that particular region. Keeping this in understanding, an attempt was made to create a detailed assessment of drought characteristics at the local scale in Bangladesh. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) is a new drought index that mainly considers the rainfall and evapotranspiration data set. Globally, SPEI has become a useful drought index, but its local scale application is not common. SPEI base (0.5° grid data) for 110 years (1901-2011) was utilized to overcome the lack of long-term climate data in Bangladesh. Available weather data (1955-2011) from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) were analyzed to calculate SPEI weather station using the SPEI calculator. The drivers for climate change-induced droughts were characterized by residual temperature and residual rainfall data from different BMD stations. Grid data (SPEI base ) of 26 stations of BMD were used for drought mapping. The findings revealed that the frequency and intensity of drought are higher in the northwestern part of the country which makes it vulnerable to both extreme and severe droughts. Based on the results, the SPEI-based drought intensity and frequency analyses were carried out, emphasizing Rangpur (northwest region) as a hot spot, to get an insight of drought assessment in Bangladesh. The findings of this study revealed that SPEI could be a valuable tool to understand the evolution and evaluation of the drought induced by climate change in the country. The study also justified the immediate need for drought risk reduction strategies that should lead to relevant policy formulations and agricultural innovations for developing

Effects of drought on leaf gas exchange in an eastern broadleaf deciduous forest

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, D. T.; Brzostek, E. R.; Dragoni, D.; Rahman, A. F.; Novick, K. A.; Phillips, R.

2013-12-01

Understanding plant physiological adaptations to drought is critical for predicting changes in ecosystem productivity that result from climate variability and future climate change. From 2011-2013, southern Indiana experienced a late growing season drought in 2011, a severe early season drought in 2012, and a wet growing season in 2013 characterized by an absence of water stress with frequent precipitation and milder temperatures. The 2012 drought was unique due to the severity and early onset drought conditions (compared to the more frequent late season drought) and was characterized by a Palmer Drought severity index below -4 and precipitation totals from May - July that were 70% less than the long-term (2000 - 2010) mean. During the 2012 drought, an 11% decline in net ecosystem productivity relative to the long-term mean was observed at the AmeriFlux tower in Morgan Monroe State Forest despite a growing season that started ~25 days earlier. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate species-specific contributions to the canopy-scale response to inter-annual variability in water stress. We investigated differences between tree species in their response to climate variability using weekly leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential measurements during the growing seasons of 2011-2013. We used this unique dataset, collected at the top of the canopy with a 25 m boom lift, to evaluate changes in leaf water status and maximum assimilation capacity in the drought versus non-drought years. The leaf-level physiology of oak (Quercus) species appears to be less sensitive to drought than other species (tulip poplar [Liriodendron tulipifera], sassafras [Sassafras albidum] and sugar maple [Acer saccharum]). Preliminary data shows mean canopy leaf water potential for oaks was 30.5% more negative in May-July 2012 versus the same time period in 2013. During these same periods the rate of C assimilation in oaks was reduced by only 3%, whereas other species were reduced by

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sanchez, Gerardo; Penuelas, Josep

2011-01-01

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced

Impact of climate change and El Niño episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum; Gan, Thian Yew

2017-07-01

Various drought prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSAF) have been affected by severe droughts in recent decades and centuries, which had caused catastrophic humanitarian crisis. In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index was used to analyse changes in drought characteristics of SSAF during 1971-2000 and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate projections of selected GCMs (Global Climate Models) for the 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) periods. The results show that most areas in South Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) will shift to a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s. However, some areas in Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to be relatively wetter in the 2050 and 2080s whereas very little change is projected in the average drought severity of Central Africa (CA). The frequency of short (6-12 months) and long (above 12 months) drought events also increased on average by 5 %. However, a 1-6 % decrease in the average duration of long drought periods was projected during the 2050 and 2080s likely due to the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in SSAF. An increase in the frequency of El Niño episodes under a warmer twentyfirst century climate is also expected to increase the drought prone regions of WA, SA and particularly GHA while CA still remains virtually unaffected. Overall, the results suggest that SSAF will experience a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s with an increase in drought prone areas in the four corners of the sub-continent.

Long-term trends in the abundance and community structure of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... increased predation by top predators. Another mechanism contributing to the long-term increase in zooplankton is the observed long-term intensification of coastal upwelling, which could enhance primary and secondary production, and increase advective input of zooplankton populations into the study area and augment ...

Intermediate-term and long-term mortality among acute medical patients hospitalized with community-acquired sepsis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Daniel P; Pottegård, Anton; Laursen, Christian B

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Admission with severe sepsis is associated with an increased short-term mortality, but it is unestablished whether sepsis severity has an impact on intermediate-term and long-term mortality following admission to an acute medical admission unit. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a populat......OBJECTIVE: Admission with severe sepsis is associated with an increased short-term mortality, but it is unestablished whether sepsis severity has an impact on intermediate-term and long-term mortality following admission to an acute medical admission unit. PATIENTS AND METHODS......: This was a population-based study of all adults admitted to an acute medical admission unit, Odense University Hospital, Denmark, from September 2010 to August 2011, identified by symptoms and clinical findings. We categorized the mortality periods into intermediate-term (31-180 days) and long-term (181-365, 366...

Global patterns of drought recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

2017-08-09

Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

2000 Years of Drought Variability in Inner Asia from Tree Rings

Science.gov (United States)

Hessl, A. E.; Pederson, N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Leland, C.; Byambasuren, O.; Nachin, B.; Andreu-Hayles, L.

2015-12-01

Understanding connections between climate, ecosystems, and society during historical and modern climatic transitions requires annual resolution records with high fidelity climate signals. In semi-arid regions, high temperatures are projected to increase the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts in coming decades. Between 1996-2014, Mongolia experienced an extended drought that coincided with a transition away from pastoralism as thousands of families lost their herds and migrated to informal urban settlements. Because Mongolia's climate is highly variable, it is difficult to place recent climatic extremes and associated social and ecological change in context without long records of climatic variability. Here we ask: how extreme was the 21st century drought in the last 2000 years? We present two 2000 year long tree-ring reconstructions of warm-season drought, derived from live and dead Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees from two lava flows in central Mongolia. Trees growing on the lava today are stunted and widely spaced, occurring on microsites with little to no soil development. These trees are water-stressed and their radial growth is correlated with both soil water availability (scPDSI) and grassland productivity (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). To contextualize the severity of recent droughts and to explore potential forcing factors, we compare recent drought persistence to the distribution of events in the past and perform long control runs of GFDL climate model. Our reconstructions, calibrated and validated on instrumental June-August scPDSI (1959-2009) account for >55% of the variability in the regional scPDSI when >70% of the annual rainfall occurs. Our tree-ring data combined with existing reconstructions of temperature, meteorological data, and model results suggest that the early 21st century drought was the hottest and one of the most persistent droughts in the last 2000 years. These dry conditions were occurred with

Use of climate information for drought risk management in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Neri, C.; Magaña Rueda, V.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of meteorological droughts in Mexico has brought to light the large vulnerability of the central-northern part of the country to water shortages. This region is facing current and future water shortages due to the increased demand of water from urban growth in addition to droughts. Assessing droughts requires considering long-term losses and side effects. However, governments generally invest little resources in the creation of drought risk reduction programs, even in regions where droughts have been documented in historical records, such as in the northern region of Mexico. It is not clear until now, what is our capacity to predict droughts on seasonal time scale, and even the Drought Monitor for North America not always reflect the severity of the condition at the regional level. An analysis of strategies that focus on droughts show that one of the principal limits in the management of drought risks and preventive decision making is the use of inadequate definitions of drought predictability. In addition, the means to communicate confidence in seasonal climate forecasts has inhibited the use of climate information in the planning of various socioeconomic activities. Although some sectors such as agriculture have programs to reduce the impacts of drought, their efforts have focused in providing subsidies to get along with dry conditions. In other words, there are no actions to reduce the potential impacts of drought. The characterization of the vulnerability of water user groups, particularly in Sonora as case of study, has been useful to identifying what type of climate information decision makers needed. This information will be included in a proposal of a drought early warming for Mexico. A key element in a drought early warming for Mexico is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using

Long-term meditation is associated with increased gray matter density in the brain stem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vestergaard-Poulsen, Peter; Beek, Martijn van; Skewes, Joshua

2009-01-01

density in lower brain stem regions of experienced meditators compared with age-matched nonmeditators. Our findings show that long-term practitioners of meditation have structural differences in brainstem regions concerned with cardiorespiratory control. This could account for some......Extensive practice involving sustained attention can lead to changes in brain structure. Here, we report evidence of structural differences in the lower brainstem of participants engaged in the long-term practice of meditation. Using magnetic resonance imaging, we observed higher gray matter...

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Long-term Observations of Ecohydrology, Climate, Energy Fluxes, and Eddy Covariance Error in a Large, Semiarid Floodplain

Science.gov (United States)

Cleverly, J. R.; Thibault, J. R.; Dahm, C. N.; Allred Coonrod, J. E.; Slusher, M.; Teet, S.; Schuetz, J.

2008-12-01

Some of the highest rates of water and energy fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere occur over large floodplains in arid and semiarid areas. Often located in high-pressure zones near 35 degrees latitude, abundant radiation and easily accessible groundwater contribute few limitations on growth and production in desert phreatophytes. Desert regions typically undergo cycles of drought and floods, and phreatophytic communities wax or wane in cover, density, and structure with cumulative species responses to timing and severity in these regional weather cycles. The Rio-ET Laboratory at the University of New Mexico has been collecting long-term data from a flux network of riparian monitoring stations, mounted on towers along the Middle Rio Grande. Ongoing measurements of energy, water and carbon dioxide fluxes, groundwater dynamics, meteorology, leaf area index, and community dynamics began at some locations in 1999. Recent reanalysis of the flux dataset was performed in which error correction procedures were compared to each and other and in relation to an irrigated crop under advection. Most riparian sites exhibited stable atmospheric stratification and an energy balance consistent with evaporative cooling. Evaporative cooling was more prominent in the late afternoon and evening, during wet conditions. Reduced latent heat fluxes were observed in a cottonwood forest following restoration and fire, but only in years when the forest floor was not re-vegetated by opportunistic annuals or target removal species. Water use by riparian phreatophytes was 1) non-responsive to drought during the monsoon season (non-native Russian olive and monospecific saltcedar communities), 2) responded negatively to monsoon-season drought (xeroriparian saltcedar and saltgrass mosaic community), or 3) responded positively to monsoon-season drought (cottonwood forests). Water salvage related to ecological restoration is dependent upon restoration strategy, emphasizing the

Application of recurrent neural networks for drought projections in California

Science.gov (United States)

Le, J. A.; El-Askary, H. M.; Allali, M.; Struppa, D. C.

2017-05-01

We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between forecasted and observed PZI on the validation set for a lead time of 1 month. This gives strong confidence to the forecasted precipitation indicator. The 2015-2016 El Niño season proved to be relatively weak as compared with the 1997-1998, with a peak PZI anomaly of 0.242 standard deviations below historical averages, continuing drought conditions.

The Gaussian copula model for the joint deficit index for droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Van de Vyver, H.; Van den Bergh, J.

2018-06-01

The characterization of droughts and their impacts is very dependent on the time scale that is involved. In order to obtain an overall drought assessment, the cumulative effects of water deficits over different times need to be examined together. For example, the recently developed joint deficit index (JDI) is based on multivariate probabilities of precipitation over various time scales from 1- to 12-months, and was constructed from empirical copulas. In this paper, we examine the Gaussian copula model for the JDI. We model the covariance across the temporal scales with a two-parameter function that is commonly used in the specific context of spatial statistics or geostatistics. The validity of the covariance models is demonstrated with long-term precipitation series. Bootstrap experiments indicate that the Gaussian copula model has advantages over the empirical copula method in the context of drought severity assessment: (i) it is able to quantify droughts outside the range of the empirical copula, (ii) provides adequate drought quantification, and (iii) provides a better understanding of the uncertainty in the estimation.

Seasonal UK Drought Forecasting using Statistical Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Doug; Fowler, Hayley; Kilsby, Chris; Serinaldi, Francesco

2016-04-01

In the UK drought is a recurrent feature of climate with potentially large impacts on public water supply. Water companies' ability to mitigate the impacts of drought by managing diminishing availability depends on forward planning and it would be extremely valuable to improve forecasts of drought on monthly to seasonal time scales. By focusing on statistical forecasting methods, this research aims to provide techniques that are simpler, faster and computationally cheaper than physically based models. In general, statistical forecasting is done by relating the variable of interest (some hydro-meteorological variable such as rainfall or streamflow, or a drought index) to one or more predictors via some formal dependence. These predictors are generally antecedent values of the response variable or external factors such as teleconnections. A candidate model is Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS). GAMLSS is a very flexible class allowing for more general distribution functions (e.g. highly skewed and/or kurtotic distributions) and the modelling of not just the location parameter but also the scale and shape parameters. Additionally GAMLSS permits the forecasting of an entire distribution, allowing the output to be assessed in probabilistic terms rather than simply the mean and confidence intervals. Exploratory analysis of the relationship between long-memory processes (e.g. large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, sea surface temperatures and soil moisture content) and drought should result in the identification of suitable predictors to be included in the forecasting model, and further our understanding of the drivers of UK drought.

Strong Selection Significantly Increases Epistatic Interactions in the Long-Term Evolution of a Protein.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aditi Gupta

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Epistatic interactions between residues determine a protein's adaptability and shape its evolutionary trajectory. When a protein experiences a changed environment, it is under strong selection to find a peak in the new fitness landscape. It has been shown that strong selection increases epistatic interactions as well as the ruggedness of the fitness landscape, but little is known about how the epistatic interactions change under selection in the long-term evolution of a protein. Here we analyze the evolution of epistasis in the protease of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1 using protease sequences collected for almost a decade from both treated and untreated patients, to understand how epistasis changes and how those changes impact the long-term evolvability of a protein. We use an information-theoretic proxy for epistasis that quantifies the co-variation between sites, and show that positive information is a necessary (but not sufficient condition that detects epistasis in most cases. We analyze the "fossils" of the evolutionary trajectories of the protein contained in the sequence data, and show that epistasis continues to enrich under strong selection, but not for proteins whose environment is unchanged. The increase in epistasis compensates for the information loss due to sequence variability brought about by treatment, and facilitates adaptation in the increasingly rugged fitness landscape of treatment. While epistasis is thought to enhance evolvability via valley-crossing early-on in adaptation, it can hinder adaptation later when the landscape has turned rugged. However, we find no evidence that the HIV-1 protease has reached its potential for evolution after 9 years of adapting to a drug environment that itself is constantly changing. We suggest that the mechanism of encoding new information into pairwise interactions is central to protein evolution not just in HIV-1 protease, but for any protein adapting to a changing

Fourteen Annually Repeated Droughts Suppressed Autotrophic Soil Respiration and Resulted in an Ecosystem Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kopittke, G.R.; Tietema, A.; van Loon, E.; Asscheman, D.

2014-01-01

Predictions of future climate over the next 100 years show that the frequency of long periods of droughts in summer will increase in the Netherlands. This study investigated the effect of 14 annually repeated droughts on soil respiration at a Dutch heathland. Field measurements of total soil

How competitive is drought deciduousness in tropical forests? A combined eco-hydrological and eco-evolutionary approach

Science.gov (United States)

Vico, Giulia; Dralle, David; Feng, Xue; Thompson, Sally; Manzoni, Stefano

2017-06-01

Drought-deciduous and evergreen species are both common in tropical forests, where there is the need to cope with water shortages during periodic dry spells and over the course of the dry season. Which phenological strategy is favored depends on the long-term balance of carbon costs and gains that leaf phenology imposes as a result of the alternation of wet and dry seasons and the unpredictability of rainfall events. This study integrates a stochastic eco-hydrological framework with key plant economy traits to derive the long-term average annual net carbon gain of trees exhibiting different phenological strategies in tropical forests. The average net carbon gain is used as a measure of fitness to assess which phenological strategies are more productive and more evolutionarily stable (i.e. not prone to invasion by species with a different strategy). The evergreen strategy results in a higher net carbon gain and more evolutionarily stable communities with increasing wet season lengths. Reductions in the length of the wet season or the total rainfall, as predicted under climate change scenarios, should promote a shift towards more drought-deciduous communities, with ensuing implications for ecosystem functioning.

Observation of long term potentiation in papain-based memory devices

KAUST Repository

Bag, A.; Hota, Mrinal Kanti; Mallik, Sandipan B.; Maì ti, Chinmay Kumar

2014-01-01

Biological synaptic behavior in terms of long term potentiation has been observed in papain-based (plant protein) memory devices (memristors) for the first time. Improvement in long term potentiation depends on pulse amplitude and width (duration). Continuous/repetitive dc voltage sweep leads to an increase in memristor conductivity leading to a long term memory in the 'learning' processes.

Observation of long term potentiation in papain-based memory devices

KAUST Repository

Bag, A.

2014-06-01

Biological synaptic behavior in terms of long term potentiation has been observed in papain-based (plant protein) memory devices (memristors) for the first time. Improvement in long term potentiation depends on pulse amplitude and width (duration). Continuous/repetitive dc voltage sweep leads to an increase in memristor conductivity leading to a long term memory in the \\'learning\\' processes.

Impacts of climate change on vegetation, hydrological and socio-economic droughts in a transitional wet-to-dry Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria

2015-04-01

The Tagus river basin is located in a transitional region between humid and semi-arid climate. The lower part of the basin is a strategic source of water for Portugal, providing water for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supplies for over 4 million people. Climate change in this region is expected to lead to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, therefore increasing climatic aridity. In this transitional region, this could lead to an increased frequency of severe droughts, threatening climatic support for current agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the sustainability of domestic water supplies. This work evaluated the impacts of climate change on drought frequency and severity for the Portuguese part of the Tagus river basin. Climate change scenarios for 2010-2100 (A2 greenhouse emission scenarios) were statistically downscaled for the study area. They were evaluated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, which simulated vegetation water demand and drought stress, soil water availability, irrigation abstraction, streamflow, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge. Water inflows from Spain were estimated using an empirical climate-based model. Drought occurrence and severity was analyzed in terms of: * meteorological drought, based on (i) the Standardized Precipitation Index and (ii) the Aridity Index; * vegetation/agricultural drought, based on plant water stress; * hydrological drought, based on (i) streamflow rates and (ii) reservoir storage; * socio-economic drought, based on (i) the capacity of the main reservoir in the system (Castelo de Bode) to sustain hydropower and domestic supplies, and (ii) the rate of groundwater extraction vs. irrigation demands for the cultures located in the intensive cultivation regions of the Lezírias near the Tagus estuary. The results indicate a trend of increasing frequency and severity of most drought types during the XXIst century, with a

Application of Statistical, Fuzzy and Perceptron Neural Networks in Drought Forecasting (Case Study: Gonbad-e Kavous Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.M. Hosseini-Moghari

2016-10-01

analysis, the optimal precipitation distribution in many cases was not Gamma distribution. The various time-scales of SPI revealed that, at least in 50% of the events, Gamma was not the selected distribution. Throughout the drought forecasting on the basis of SPI time-series with four aforementioned networks, 80% of the data was allocated to the training process whilst the rest of them considered for the test process. The proper parameters of the networks were chosen via trial and error. Moreover, Cross-validation was used to overcome the over-estimation. The results revealed that the long-term SPIs outdid the others. Performance of the networks promoted with increases in time scales of SPI. In other words, the performance criteria improved proportional to the increases in the time-scales. Based on the Table 3, the least and best performance were contributed to SPI1 and SPI24, respectively. In this regard, R2 of MLP for observed and estimated values of SPI vitiated from 0.009 to 0.949. Similar to MLP, correlation of ANFIS, RBF, and GRNN increased from 0.021 to 0.925, 0.263 to 0.953, and 0.210 to 0.955. Comparison of observed and estimated mean values via Z test indicated that null hypothesis of equal mean observed and estimated values was only rejected for SPI1 with α=0.01. Hence, except SPI1 forecasting, the all other scenarios have remained the mean of observed time series which highlighted the robustness of artificial intelligence in drought forecasting. Conclusion: The main objective of the ongoing research was monitoring and forecasting of drought based upon various time scales of SPI. In doing so, the precipitation data of Gonbad Kavous station during the period of 1972-73 to 2006-07 were used. Based on K-S test, the best statistical distribution test for different time scales of SPI evaluation was chosen, and then, the SPI was calculated based on the most fitted distribution. After generating the time-series, MLP, ANFIS, RBF, and GRNN were applied for drought

Short-term versus long-term market opportunities and financial constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrari, Angelo

1999-01-01

This presentation discusses gas developments in Europe, the European Gas Directive, short term vs. long term, and Snam's new challenges. The European gas market is characterized by (1) The role of gas in meeting the demand for energy, which varies greatly from one country to another, (2) A growing market, (3) Decreasing role of domestic production, and (4) Increasing imports. Within the European Union, the Gas Directive aims to transform single national markets into one integrated European market by introducing third party access to the network for eligible clients as a means of increasing the competition between operators. The Gas Directive would appear to modify the form of the market rather than its size, and in particular the sharing of responsibility and risk among operators. The market in the future will offer operators the possibility to exploit opportunities deriving mainly from demands for increased flexibility. Opportunities linked to entrepreneurial initiatives require long-term investments characteristic of the gas business. Risks and opportunities must be balanced evenly between different operators. If everyone takes on their own risks and responsibilities, this means a wider distribution of the risks of long-term vs. short-term, currently borne by the gas companies that are integrated, into a market that tends to favour the short-term. A gradual liberalization process should allow incumbent operators to gradually diversify their activities in new gas market areas or enter new business activities. They could move beyond their local and European boundaries in pursuit of an international dimension. The market will have to make the transition from the national to the European dimension: as an example, Snam covers 90% of the Italian market, but its share of an integrated European market will be about 15%

Compensation processes of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) to ozone exposure and drought stress

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inclan, R.; Gimeno, B.S.; Dizengremel, P.; Sanchez, M.

2005-01-01

A long-term experiment was performed to study the effects of O 3 and drought-stress (DS) on Aleppo pine seedlings (Pinus halepensis Mill.) exposed in open-top chambers. Ozone reduced gas exchange rates, ribulose-1,5-biphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase activity (Rubisco), aboveground C and needle N concentrations and C/N ratio and Ca concentrations of the twigs under 3 mm (twigs Pd ), C/N ratio, twigs<3 Ca, plant growth, aerial biomass and increased N, twigs with a diameter above 3 mm P and Mg concentrations. The combined exposure to both stresses increased N concentrations of twigs<3 and roots and aboveground biomass K content and decreased root C, maximum daily assimilation rate and instantaneous water use efficiency. The sensitivity of Aleppo pine to both stresses is determined by plant internal resource allocation and compensation mechanisms to cope with stress. - Ozone and drought stress induce the activation of similar processes related to C and N metabolism

Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; J Cheng, June; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth

2015-07-17

Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; Cheng, June J.; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth

2015-01-01

Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health. PMID:26193300

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

A least squares approach for efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2017-01-01

The uncertainties related to long-term forecasts of oil prices impose significant financial risk on ventures of oil production. To minimize risk, oil companies are inclined to maximize profit over short-term horizons ranging from months to a few years. In contrast, conventional production...... optimization maximizes long-term profits over horizons that span more than a decade. To address this challenge, the oil literature has introduced short-term versus long-term optimization. Ideally, this problem is solved by a posteriori multi-objective optimization methods that generate an approximation...... the balance between the objectives, leaving an unfulfilled potential to increase profits. To promote efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization, this paper introduces a natural way to characterize desirable Pareto points and proposes a novel least squares (LS) method. Unlike hierarchical...

12 years of irrigation in a drought stressed pine forest speeds up carbon cycling and alters the soil biome but has negligible effects on soil organic matter storage

Science.gov (United States)

Hagedorn, Frank; Hartmann, Martin; Brunner, Ivano; Rigling, Andreas; Herzog, Claude; Schaub, Marcus; Frey, Beat

2017-04-01

Inneralpine valleys are experiencing repeated summer droughts, which have caused a die-back of pine forests since the 1990s. Drought limits the metabolic activity and hence C cycling in the plant and soil system. The net effects of drought on soil organic matter (SOM) storage is, however, ambiguous as drought affects both C inputs and outputs. Moreover, in the long-term, water limitation is also altering above- and belowground diversity due to species-dependent resistance and adaptation to drought. In our study, we explored how ten years of irrigation of a water-limited pine forest in the central European Alps altered above- and belowground diversity and C cycling in the plant and soil systems. The decadal long irrigation during summer time strongly increased ecosystem productivity with litter fall and fine root biomass being increased by +50 and +40%, respectively. At the same time, soil CO2 efflux was stimulated by 60%, indicating that the removal of water limitation enhanced both the inputs and outputs of C into soils. The accelerated C cycling was also mirrored by compositional shifts in the soil microbiome. 454-pyrosequencing of ribosomal marker genes indicated that irrigation promoted bacteria and fungi with more copiotrophic life style strategies, that are typical for nutrient-rich conditions associated with a higher decomposition. Determination of SOM pools revealed a C loss in the organic layer under irrigation (-900 gC m-2) but a C gain in the mineral soil (+970 gC m-2), resulting in a negligible net effect. The likely mechanisms for the altered vertical SOM distribution might be (1) an accelerated mineralization of litter in conjunction with higher C inputs from the rhizosphere and/or (2) an increased incorporation of litter in the mineral soil as suggested by a litter bag experiment showing a stimulated activity of the macrofauna with a 5-fold increase of the earthworm density. In summary, our long-term irrigation experiment revealed that the removal of

Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy V.P. Bliss

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

Increased short- and long-term mortality in 8146 hospitalised peptic ulcer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Malmi, H; Kautiainen, H; Virta, L J; Färkkilä, M A

2016-08-01

Incidence and complications of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) have declined, but mortality from peptic ulcer bleeding has remained unchanged. The few recent studies on mortality associated with both uncomplicated and complicated patients with peptic ulcer disease provide contradictory results. To evaluate short- and long-term mortality, and the main causes of death in peptic ulcer disease. In this retrospective epidemiologic cohort study, register data on 8146 adult patients hospitalised with peptic ulcer disease during 2000-2008 were collected in the capital region of Finland. All were followed in the National Cause of Death Register until the end of 2009. The data were linked with the nationwide Drug Purchase Register of the Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Mean follow-up time was 4.9 years. Overall mortality was substantially increased, standardised mortality ratio 2.53 (95% CI: 2.44-2.63); 3.7% died within 30 days, and 11.8% within 1 year. At 6 months, the survival of patients with perforated or bleeding ulcer was lower compared to those with uncomplicated ulcer; hazard ratios were 2.06 (1.68-2.04) and 1.32 (1.11-1.58), respectively. For perforated duodenal ulcers, both the short- and long-term survival was significantly impaired in women. The main causes of mortality at 1 year were malignancies and cardiovascular diseases. Previous use of statins was associated with significant reduction in all-cause mortality. One-year mortality in patients hospitalised with peptic ulcer disease remained high with no change. This peptic ulcer disease cohort had a clearly decreased survival rate up to 10 years, especially among women with a perforated duodenal ulcer, most likely explained by poorer survival due to underlying comorbidity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Overstory Tree Mortality in Ponderosa Pine and Spruce-Fir Ecosystems Following a Drought in Northern New Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian P. Oswald

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Drought-caused tree dieback is an issue around the world as climates change and many areas become dryer and hotter. A drought from 1998–2004 resulted in a significant tree dieback event in many of the wooded areas in portions of the Jemez Mountains and the adjacent Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. The objectives of this study were to evaluate and quantify the differences in tree mortality before and after a recent drought in ponderosa pine and spruce-fir ecosystems, and to assess the effect of mechanical thinning on ponderosa pine mortality. Significant increases in mortality were observed in the unthinned ponderosa pine ecosystem. Mortality varied significantly between species and within size classes. Mechanical thinning of ponderosa pines reduced overstory mortality to non-significant levels. A lack of rainfall, snowfall, and increases in daily minimum temperature contributed most to the mortality. Adaptive management, including the use of thinning activities, appear to moderate the impact of climate change on ponderosa pine forests in this region, increasing the long-term health of the ecosystem. The impact of climate change on the spruce-fir ecosystems may accelerate successional changes.

Functional adjustments of xylem anatomy to climatic variability: insights from long-term Ilex aquifolium tree-ring series.

Science.gov (United States)

Rita, Angelo; Cherubini, Paolo; Leonardi, Stefano; Todaro, Luigi; Borghetti, Marco

2015-08-01

The present study assessed the effects of climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits, including ring width, vessel size, vessel frequency and derived variables, i.e., potential hydraulic conductivity and xylem vulnerability to cavitation in Ilex aquifolium L. trees using long-term tree-ring time series obtained at two climatically contrasting sites, one mesic site in Switzerland (CH) and one drought-prone site in Italy (ITA). Relationships were explored by examining different xylem traits, and point pattern analysis was applied to investigate vessel clustering. We also used generalized additive models and bootstrap correlation functions to describe temperature and precipitation effects. Results indicated modified radial growth and xylem anatomy in trees over the last century; in particular, vessel frequency increased markedly at both sites in recent years, and all xylem traits examined, with the exception of xylem cavitation vulnerability, were higher at the CH mesic compared with the ITA drought site. A significant vessel clustering was observed at the ITA site, which could contribute to an enhanced tolerance to drought-induced embolism. Flat and negative relationships between vessel size and ring width were observed, suggesting carbon was not allocated to radial growth under conditions which favored stem water conduction. Finally, in most cases results indicated that climatic conditions influenced functional anatomical traits more substantially than tree radial growth, suggesting a crucial role of functional xylem anatomy in plant acclimation to future climatic conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparative proteome analysis of drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant rapeseed roots and their hybrid F1 line under drought stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadi, Payam Pour; Moieni, Ahmad; Komatsu, Setsuko

2012-11-01

Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), which is the third leading source of vegetable oil, is sensitive to drought stress during the early vegetative growth stage. To investigate the initial response of rapeseed to drought stress, changes in the protein expression profiles of drought-sensitive (RGS-003) and drought-tolerant lines (SLM-003), and their F1 hybrid, were analyzed using a proteomics approach. Seven-day-old rapeseed seedlings were treated with drought stress by restricting water for 7 days, and proteins were extracted from roots and separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. In the sensitive rapeseed line, 35 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins related to metabolism, energy, disease/defense, and transport were decreased. In the tolerant line, 32 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins involved in metabolism, disease/defense, and transport were increased, while energy-related proteins were decreased. Six protein spots in F1 hybrid were common among expressed proteins in the drought-sensitive and -tolerant lines. Notably, tubulin beta-2 and heat shock protein 70 were decreased in the drought-sensitive line and hybrid F1 plants, while jasmonate-inducible protein and 20S proteasome subunit PAF1 were increased in the F1 hybrids and drought-tolerant line. These results indicate that (1) V-type H(+) ATPase, plasma-membrane associated cation-binding protein, HSP 90, and elongation factor EF-2 have a role in the drought tolerance of rapeseed; (2) The decreased levels of heat shock protein 70 and tubulin beta-2 in the drought-sensitive and hybrid F1 lines might explain the reduced growth of these lines in drought conditions.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Antonio Rivera

2017-08-01

Full Text Available During the period 2010–2015, the semi-arid Central Andes in Argentina (CAA experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting hydrological droughts on record. Since the snowmelt is the most important source of water, the reduced snowfall over the mountains propagated the drought signal through the streamflows in the adjacent foothills east of the Andes ranges. Motivated by the widespread impacts on the socio-economic activities in the region, this study aims to characterize the recent hydrological drought in terms of streamflow deficits. Based on streamflow data from 20 basins, we used the standardized streamflow index (SSI to characterize hydrological droughts during the period 1971–2016. We found that the regional extent of the 2010–2015 hydrological drought was limited to the basins located north of 38° S, with mean duration of 67 months and maximum drought severity exhibiting a heterogeneous pattern in terms of spatial distribution and time of occurrence. The drought event reached extreme conditions in 14 of the 15 basins in the CAA, being record-breaking drought in six of the basins. This condition was likely driven by a cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean resembling La Niña conditions, which generated a decrease in snowfall over the Andes due to suppressed frontal activity.

Long-Term Treatment with Paroxetine Increases Verbal Declarative Memory and Hippocampal Volume in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Vermetten, Eric; Vythilingam, Meena; Southwick, Steven M.; Charney, Dennis S.; Bremner, J. Douglas

2011-01-01

Background Animal studies have shown that stress is associated with damage to the hippocampus, inhibition of neurogenesis, and deficits in hippocampal-based memory dysfunction. Studies in patients with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) found deficits in hippocampal-based declarative verbal memory and smaller hippocampal volume, as measured with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Recent preclinical evidence has shown that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors promote neurogenesis and reverse the effects of stress on hippocampal atrophy. This study assessed the effects of long-term treatment with paroxetine on hippocampal volume and declarative memory performance in PTSD. Methods Declarative memory was assessed with the Wechsler Memory Scale–Revised and Selective Reminding Test before and after 9–12 months of treatment with paroxetine in PTSD. Hippocampal volume was measured with MRI. Of the 28 patients who started the protocol, 23 completed the full course of treatment and neuropsychological testing. Twenty patients were able to complete MRI imaging. Results Patients with PTSD showed a significant improvement in PTSD symptoms with treatment. Treatment resulted in significant improvements in verbal declarative memory and a 4.6% increase in mean hippocampal volume. Conclusions These findings suggest that long-term treatment with paroxetine is associated with improvement of verbal declarative memory deficits and an increase in hippocampal volume in PTSD. PMID:14512209

Long term repeated prescribed burning increases evenness in the basidiomycete laccase gene pool in forest soils.

Science.gov (United States)

Artz, Rebekka R E; Reid, Eileen; Anderson, Ian C; Campbell, Colin D; Cairney, John W G

2009-03-01

Repeated prescribed burning alters the biologically labile fraction of nutrients and carbon of soil organic matter (SOM). Using a long-term (30 years) repeated burning experiment where burning has been carried out at a 2- or 4-year frequency, we analysed the effect of prescribed burning on gross potential C turnover rates and phenol oxidase activity in relation to shifts in SOM composition as observed using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. In tandem, we assessed the genetic diversity of basidiomycete laccases. While the overall effect of burning was a decline in phenol oxidase activity, Shannon diversity and evenness of laccases was significantly higher in burned sites. Co-correspondence analysis of SOM composition and laccase operational taxonomic unit frequency data also suggested a strong correlation. While this correlation could indicate that the observed increase in laccase genetic diversity due to burning is due to increased resource diversity, a temporal replacement of the most abundant members of the assembly by an otherwise dormant pool of fungi cannot be excluded. As such, our results fit the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. Effects were stronger in plots burned in 2-year rotations, suggesting that the 4-year burn frequency may be a more sustainable practice to ensure the long-term stability of C cycling in such ecosystems.

Quantitative Phosphoproteomic Analysis Provides Insight into the Response to Short-Term Drought Stress in Ammopiptanthus mongolicus Roots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huigai Sun

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Drought is one of the major abiotic stresses that negatively affects plant growth and development. Ammopiptanthus mongolicus is an ecologically important shrub in the mid-Asia desert region and used as a model for abiotic tolerance research in trees. Protein phosphorylation participates in the regulation of various biological processes, however, phosphorylation events associated with drought stress signaling and response in plants is still limited. Here, we conducted a quantitative phosphoproteomic analysis of the response of A. mongolicus roots to short-term drought stress. Data are available via the iProx database with project ID IPX0000971000. In total, 7841 phosphorylation sites were found from the 2019 identified phosphopeptides, corresponding to 1060 phosphoproteins. Drought stress results in significant changes in the abundance of 103 phosphopeptides, corresponding to 90 differentially-phosphorylated phosphoproteins (DPPs. Motif-x analysis identified two motifs, including [pSP] and [RXXpS], from these DPPs. Functional enrichment and protein-protein interaction analysis showed that the DPPs were mainly involved in signal transduction and transcriptional regulation, osmotic adjustment, stress response and defense, RNA splicing and transport, protein synthesis, folding and degradation, and epigenetic regulation. These drought-corresponsive phosphoproteins, and the related signaling and metabolic pathways probably play important roles in drought stress signaling and response in A. mongolicus roots. Our results provide new information for understanding the molecular mechanism of the abiotic stress response in plants at the posttranslational level.

Expression of an Arabidopsis molybdenum cofactor sulphurase gene in soybean enhances drought tolerance and increases yield under field conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yajun; Zhang, Jiachang; Zhang, Juan; Hao, Ling; Hua, Jinping; Duan, Liusheng; Zhang, Mingcai; Li, Zhaohu

2013-08-01

LOS5/ABA3 gene encoding molybdenum cofactor sulphurase is involved in aldehyde oxidase (AO) activity in Arabidopsis, which indirectly regulates ABA biosynthesis and increased stress tolerance. Here, we used a constitutive super promoter to drive LOS5/ABA3 overexpression in soybean (Glycine max L.) to enhance drought tolerance in growth chamber and field conditions. Expression of LOS5/ABA3 was up-regulated by drought stress, which led to increasing AO activity and then a notable increase in ABA accumulation. Transgenic soybean under drought stress had reduced water loss by decreased stomatal aperture size and transpiration rate, which alleviated leaf wilting and maintained higher relative water content. Exposed to drought stress, transgenic soybean exhibited reduced cell membrane damage by reducing electrolyte leakage and production of malondialdehyde and promoting proline accumulation and antioxidant enzyme activities. Also, overexpression of LOS5/ABA3 enhanced expression of stress-up-regulated genes. Furthermore, the seed yield of transgenic plants is at least 21% higher than that of wide-type plants under drought stress conditions in the field. These data suggest that overexpression of LOS5/ABA3 could improve drought tolerance in transgenic soybean via enhanced ABA accumulation, which could activate expression of stress-up-regulated genes and cause a series of physiological and biochemical resistant responses. © 2013 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Natural gas market assessment: Long-term Canadian natural gas contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

A descriptive analysis is presented of the changes which have occurred and the developing trends in the long-term Canadian contracts governing the sale of western Canadian gas into the domestic and export markets from 1985 to 1991. The report is limited to domestic and export contracts for Canadian gas and does not include imported gas under contract. Contract structures prior to deregulation, the changing role of long-term contracts, size and duration of long-term contracts, and terms and conditions of long-term contracts are discussed. Important changes since the mid-1980s include: increased flexibility in long-term contracts enabling the parties to respond more readily to changing supply and demand conditions; greater balance between the buyer's obligation to purchase and the seller's obligation to deliver; flexible and increasingly simple pricing terms that track competitive market conditions; shorter contract terms; reduced contract volumes as smaller end-users and producer/marketers enter the market; and unbundling of gas sales and transportation service providing a wider range of contracting choices and options. 36 figs., 2 tabs

Short-term and long-term effects of GDP on traffic deaths in 18 OECD countries, 1960-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Dadgar, Iman; Norström, Thor

2017-02-01

Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality. We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates. The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (pGDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Long-term mortality after Staphylococcus aureus spondylodiscitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aagaard, Theis; Roed, Casper; Larsen, Anders R

2014-01-01

Patients diagnosed with Staphylococcus aureus spondylodiscitis have increased long-term mortality compared with the background population mainly due to infectious, endocrine, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and alcohol and drug abuse-related diseases.......Patients diagnosed with Staphylococcus aureus spondylodiscitis have increased long-term mortality compared with the background population mainly due to infectious, endocrine, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and alcohol and drug abuse-related diseases....

Inadvertent Splenectomy During Resection for Colorectal Cancer Does Not Increase Long-term Mortality in a Propensity Score Model: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lolle, Ida; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian; Schefte, David F; Bulut, Orhan; Krarup, Peter-Martin; Rosenstock, Steffen J

2016-12-01

Previous studies suggest that long-term mortality is increased in patients who undergo splenectomy during surgery for colorectal cancer. The reason for this association remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between inadvertent splenectomy attributed to iatrogenic lesion to the spleen during colorectal cancer resections and long-term mortality in a national cohort of unselected patients. This was a retrospective, nationwide cohort study. Data were collected from the database of the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group and merged with data from the National Patient Registry and the National Pathology Databank. Danish patients with colorectal cancer undergoing curatively intended resection between 2001 and 2011 were included in the study. The primary outcome was long-term mortality for patients surviving 30 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and risk factors for inadvertent splenectomy. Multivariable and propensity-score matched Cox regression analyses were used to adjust for potential confounding. In total, 23,727 patients were included, of which 277 (1.2%) underwent inadvertent splenectomy. There was no association between inadvertent splenectomy and long-term mortality (adjusted HR = 1.15 (95% CI, 0.95-1.40); p = 0.16) in the propensity score-matched model, whereas 30-day mortality was significantly increased (adjusted HR = 2.31 (95% CI, 1.71-3.11); p splenectomy was most often seen during left hemicolectomy (left hemicolectomy vs right hemicolectomy: OR = 24.76 (95% CI, 15.30-40.06); p splenectomy during resection for colorectal cancer does not seem to increase long-term mortality. The previously reported reduced overall survival after inadvertent splenectomy may be explained by excess mortality in the immediate postoperative period.

Propofol increased the interleukin-6 to interleukin-10 ratio more than isoflurane after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Von Dossow, V; Baur, S; Sander, M

2011-01-01

This study investigated the effect of an anaesthetic regimen on the immune response in 40 long-term alcoholic patients undergoing surgery. Patients were randomly allocated to receive either propofol or isoflurane during surgery. Plasma cytokines interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10 were measured at defined...... times and rates of post-operative infections were documented. The IL-6/IL-10 ratio significantly increased with propofol compared with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery and the IL-10 level significantly increased with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery. The overall post-operative infection rate...... was significantly higher in isoflurane-treated patients. Our findings indicate that propofol anaesthesia might be the more favourable regimen, with the IL-6/IL-10 ratio indicating an attenuation of the immune imbalance after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients. These results support the undertaking...

Propofol increased the interleukin-6 to interleukin-10 ratio more than isoflurane after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Von Dossow, V; Baur, S; Sander, M

2007-01-01

This study investigated the effect of an anaesthetic regimen on the immune response in 40 long-term alcoholic patients undergoing surgery. Patients were randomly allocated to receive either propofol or isoflurane during surgery. Plasma cytokines interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10 were measured at defined...... times and rates of post-operative infections were documented. The IL-6/IL-10 ratio significantly increased with propofol compared with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery and the IL-10 level significantly increased with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery. The overall post-operative infection rate...... was significantly higher in isoflurane-treated patients. Our findings indicate that propofol anaesthesia might be the more favourable regimen, with the IL-6/IL-10 ratio indicating an attenuation of the immune imbalance after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients. These results support the undertaking...

Trait-specific responses of Scots pine to irrigation on a short vs long time scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feichtinger, L.M.; Eilmann, Britta; Buchmann, Nina; Rigling, Andreas

2015-01-01

In xeric environments, an increase in drought is related to reduced forest productivity and to enhanced mortality. However, predictions of future forest development remain difficult as the mechanisms underlying the responses of mature trees to long-term variations in water availability are not

Long-term biodosimetry Redux

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

2016-01-01

This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

Increasing Drought Sensitivity and Decline of Atlas Cedar (Cedrus atlantica in the Moroccan Middle Atlas Forests

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Jesús Julio Camarero

2011-09-01

Full Text Available An understanding of the interactions between climate change and forest structure on tree growth are needed for decision making in forest conservation and management. In this paper, we investigated the relative contribution of tree features and stand structure on Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica radial growth in forests that have experienced heavy grazing and logging in the past. Dendrochronological methods were applied to quantify patterns in basal-area increment and drought sensitivity of Atlas cedar in the Middle Atlas, northern Morocco. We estimated the tree-to-tree competition intensity and quantified the structure in Atlas cedar stands with contrasting tree density, age, and decline symptoms. The relative contribution of tree age and size and stand structure to Atlas cedar growth decline was estimated by variance partitioning using partial-redundancy analyses. Recurrent drought events and temperature increases have been identified from local climate records since the 1970s. We detected consistent growth declines and increased drought sensitivity in Atlas cedar across all sites since the early 1980s. Specifically, we determined that previous growth rates and tree age were the strongest tree features, while Quercus rotundifolia basal area was the strongest stand structure measure related to Atlas cedar decline. As a result, we suggest that Atlas cedar forests that have experienced severe drought in combination with grazing and logging may be in the process of shifting dominance toward more drought-tolerant species such as Q. rotundifolia.

Long-Term Symbolic Learning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

2007-01-01

What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a

The Amazon rainforest, climate change, and drought: How will what is below the surface affect the climate of tropical South America?

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, A.; Denning, A. S.; Baker, I.; Randall, D.; Dazlich, D.

2008-12-01

Several climate models have predicted an increase in long-term droughts in tropical South America due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although the Amazon rainforest is resilient to seasonal drought, multi-year droughts pose a definite problem for the ecosystem's health. Furthermore, drought- stressed vegetation participates in feedbacks with the atmosphere that can exacerbate drought. Namely, reduced evapotranspiration further dries out the atmosphere and affects the regional climate. Trees in the rainforest survive seasonal drought by using deep roots to access adequate stores of soil moisture. We investigate the climatic impacts of deep roots and soil moisture by coupling the Simple Biosphere (SiB3) model to Colorado State University's general circulation model (BUGS5). We compare two versions of SiB3 in the GCM during years with anomalously low rainfall. The first has strong vegetative stress due to soil moisture limitations. The second experiences less stress and has more realistic representations of surface biophysics. In the model, basin-wide reductions in soil moisture stress result in increased evapotranspiration, precipitation, and moisture recycling in the Amazon basin. In the savannah region of southeastern Brazil, the unstressed version of SiB3 produces decreased precipitation and weaker moisture flux, which is more in-line with observations. The improved simulation of precipitation and evaporation also produces a more realistic Bolivian high and Nordeste low. These changes highlight the importance of subsurface biophysics for the Amazonian climate. The presence of deep roots and soil moisture will become even more important if climate change brings more frequent droughts to this region in the future.

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

Karstic water storage response to the recent droughts in Southwest China estimated from satellite gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Chaolong; Luo, Zhicai

2015-12-01

The water resources crisis is intensifying in Southwest China (SWC), which includes the world's largest continuous coverage of karst landforms, due to recent severe drought events. However, because of the special properties of karstic water system, such as strong heterogeneity, monitoring the variation of karstic water resources at large scales remains still difficult. Satellite gravimetry has emerged as an effective tool for investigating the global and regional water cycles. In this study, we used GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data from January 2003 to January 2013 to investigate karstic water storage variability over the karst region of SWC. We assessed the impacts of the recent severe droughts on karst water resources, including two heavy droughts in September 2010 to May 2010 and August 2011 to January 2012. Results show a slightly water increase tend during the studied period, but these two severe droughts have resulted in significant water depletion in the studied karst region. The latter drought during 2011 and 2012 caused more water deficits than that of the drought in 2010. Strong correlation between the variations of GRACE-based total water storage and precipitation suggests that climate change is the main driving force for the significant water absent over the studied karst region. As the world's largest continuous coverage karst aquifer, the karst region of SWC offers an example of GRACE applications to a karst system incisively and will benefit for water management from a long-term perspective in karst systems throughout the world.

Aging and a long-term diabetes mellitus increase expression of 1 α-hydroxylase and vitamin D receptors in the rat liver.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuica, Ana; Ferhatović Hamzić, Lejla; Vukojević, Katarina; Jerić, Milka; Puljak, Livia; Grković, Ivica; Filipović, Natalija

2015-12-01

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disorder associated with serious liver complications. As a metabolic chronic disease, DM is very common in the elderly. Recent studies suggest ameliorating effects of vitamin D on metabolic and oxidative stress in the liver tissue in an experimental model of DM. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of vitamin D receptors (VDRs) and 1α-hydroxylase, the key enzyme for the production of active vitamin D form (calcitriol) in the liver during long-term diabetes mellitus type 1 (DM1) in aging rats. We performed immunohistochemical analysis of liver expression of 1α-hydroxylase and VDRs during aging in long-term streptozotocin-induced DM1. 1α-Hydroxylase was identified in the monocyte/macrophage system of the liver. In addition to the nuclear expression, we also observed the expression of VDR in membranes of lipid droplets within hepatocytes. Aging and long-term DM1 resulted in significant increases in the number of 1α-hydroxylase immunoreactive cells, as well as the percentage of strongly positive VDR hepatocytes. In conclusion, the liver has the capacity for active vitamin D synthesis in its monocyte/macrophage system that is substantially increased in aging and long-term diabetes mellitus. These conditions are also characterized by significant increases in vitamin D receptor expression in hepatocytes. The present study suggests that VDR signaling system could be a potential target in prevention of liver complications caused by diabetes and aging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.

2016-09-01

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what

Long-term multipactor discharge in multicarrier systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gimeno, B.; Boria, V. E.; Armendariz, J.

2007-01-01

A new mechanism of long-term multipactor in multicarrier systems is studied employing both analytical and numerical methods. In particular, the investigation is focused on the impact that a realistic secondary emission yield at low energies produces on the development of long term multipactor. A novel analytical model for this interperiod charge accumulation is presented using the traditional multipactor theory for parallel plates, and approximating the multicarrier signal as a single-carrier signal modulated by a pulsed signal envelope. The analytical predictions are verified by numerical simulations for a typical rectangular waveguide. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the susceptibility of the system to develop a long-term multipactor discharge increases with higher values of low-energy secondary emission yield

Long-Term Anabolic Androgenic Steroid Use Is Associated with Increased Atrial Electromechanical Delay in Male Bodybuilders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa Akçakoyun

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We investigated the effect of long-term supraphysiologic doses of anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS on atrial electromechanical delay (AEMD in male bodybuilders. We clearly demonstrated that long-term consumption of supraphysiologic doses of AAS is associated with higher values of inter- and intra-AEMD in healthy young bodybuilders.

Assessing Nonstationary Spatial Patterns of Extreme Droughts from Long-Term High-Resolution Observational Dataset on a Semiarid Basin (Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra G. Garcia Galiano

2015-10-01

Full Text Available In basins of South-eastern Spain; such as the semiarid Segura River Basin (SRB, a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. However, in the SRB the decreasing trend is not only related with climate variability and change, also with intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, whichever the reason is, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regimes. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than five decades (1950−2007, the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS models at the grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated with return periods; contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.

LONG-TERM OUTCOME IN PEDIATRIC TRICHOTILLOMANIA.

Science.gov (United States)

Schumer, Maya C; Panza, Kaitlyn E; Mulqueen, Jilian M; Jakubovski, Ewgeni; Bloch, Michael H

2015-10-01

To examine long-term outcome in children with trichotillomania. We conducted follow-up clinical assessments an average of 2.8 ± 0.8 years after baseline evaluation in 30 of 39 children who previously participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) for pediatric trichotillomania. Our primary outcome was change in hairpulling severity on the Massachusetts General Hospital Hairpulling Hospital Hairpulling Scale (MGH-HPS) between the end of the acute phase and follow-up evaluation. We also obtained secondary measures examining styles of hairpulling, comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as continued treatment utilization. We examined both correlates and predictors of outcome (change in MGH-HPS score) using linear regression. None of the participants continued to take NAC at the time of follow-up assessment. No significant changes in hairpulling severity were reported over the follow-up period. Subjects reported significantly increased anxiety and depressive symptoms but improvement in automatic pulling symptoms. Increased hairpulling symptoms during the follow-up period were associated with increased depression and anxiety symptoms and increased focused pulling. Older age and greater focused pulling at baseline assessment were associated with poor long-term prognosis. Our findings suggest that few children with trichotillomania experience a significant improvement in trichotillomania symptoms if behavioral treatments are inaccessible or have failed to produce adequate symptom relief. Our findings also confirm results of previous cross-sectional studies that suggest an increased risk of depression and anxiety symptoms with age in pediatric trichotillomania. Increased focused pulling and older age among children with trichotillomania symptoms may be associated with poorer long-term prognosis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano

2015-04-01

Full Text Available We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic may also affect on land degradation.

Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011)

KAUST Repository

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio

2015-04-14

We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax) predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa) were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic) may also affect on land degradation.

Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011)

KAUST Repository

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio; Cabello, Daniel; Tomá s-Burguera, Miquel; Martí n-Herná ndez, Natalia; Beguerí a, Santiago; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Kenawy, Ahmed

2015-01-01

We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax) predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa) were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic) may also affect on land degradation.

Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel

Science.gov (United States)

Turco, Marco; Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Saaroni, Hadas

2017-04-01

On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980-2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982-2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987-2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.

Long-term selenium status in humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baskett, C.K.; Spate, V.L.; Mason, M.M.; Nichols, T.A.; Williams, A.; Dubman, I.M.; Gudino, A.; Denison, J.; Morris, J.S.

2001-01-01

The association of sub-optimal selenium status with increased risk factors for some cancers has been reported in two recent epidemiological studies. In both studies the same threshold in selenium status was observed, below which, cancer incidence increased. To assess the use of nails as a biologic monitor to measure the long-term selenium status, an eight-year longitudinal study was undertaken with a group of 11 adult subjects, 5 women and 6 men. Selenium has been measured by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Differences between fingernails and toenails with be discussed. In addition, the results will be discussed in the context of the long-term stability of the nail monitor to measure selenium status during those periods when selenium determinants are static; and the changes that occur as a result of selenium supplementation. (author)

Prevalence of Long-Term Opioid Use in Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents.

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Hunnicutt, Jacob N; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Ulbricht, Christine M; Hume, Anne L; Tjia, Jennifer; Lapane, Kate L

2018-01-01

Overall and long-term opioid use among older adults have increased since 1999. Less is known about opioid use in older adults in nursing homes (NHs). Cross-sectional. U.S. NHs (N = 13,522). Long-stay NH resident Medicare beneficiaries with a Minimum Data Set 3.0 (MDS) assessment between April 1, 2012, and June 30, 2012, and 120 days of follow-up (N = 315,949). We used Medicare Part D claims to measure length of opioid use in the 120 days from the index assessment (short-term: ≤30 days, medium-term: >30-89 days, long-term: ≥90 days), adjuvants (e.g., anticonvulsants), and other pain medications (e.g., corticosteroids). MDS assessments in the follow-up period were used to measure nonpharmacological pain management use. Modified Poisson models were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for age, gender, race and ethnicity, cognitive and physical impairment, and long-term opioid use. Of all long-stay residents, 32.4% were prescribed any opioid, and 15.5% were prescribed opioids long-term. Opioid users (versus nonusers) were more commonly prescribed pain adjuvants (32.9% vs 14.9%), other pain medications (25.5% vs 11.0%), and nonpharmacological pain management (24.5% vs 9.3%). Long-term opioid use was higher in women (aPR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.18-1.23) and lower in racial and ethnic minorities (non-Hispanic blacks vs whites: APR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.90-0.94) and those with severe cognitive impairment (vs no or mild impairment, aPR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.79-0.83). One in seven NH residents was prescribed opioids long-term. Recent guidelines on opioid prescribing for pain recommend reducing long-term opioid use, but this is challenging in NHs because residents may not benefit from nonpharmacological and nonopioid interventions. Studies to address concerns about opioid safety and effectiveness (e.g., on pain and functional status) in NHs are needed. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics

Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

2014-01-01

reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

The role of extreme drought events in modelling the distribution of beech at its xeric limit

Science.gov (United States)

Rasztovits, Ervin; Berki, Imre; Eredics, Attila; Móricz, Norbert

2014-05-01

Context: Projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for future climate conditions are based on long term mean climate data. For management and conservation issues SDMs have been extensively used, but it is not tested whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally powerful in predicting distributions under future climates. Methods: Observations after 2003 confirms that extreme drought events played an important role in driving beech mortality at low-elevation xeric limits. The objective of this study was (1) to set up a simple extreme drought event based vitality model (EDM) using sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech and (2) to compare the spatial pattern of the predicted vitality loss provided by the EDM with the distribution limits of the SDMs for three terms (2025, 2050 and 2100) in Hungary to assess model performance. Results: Prediction for vitality loss for 2025 obtained from the EDM was in agreement with those of the SDM, but for the end of the century the EDM predicted a more serious decline in almost all regions of Hungary. Conclusion: The result of the comparison suggests that the increasing frequency and severity of extremes might play a more important role in limiting the distribution of beech in the future near to the xeric limit than long-term means.

Inadvertent Splenectomy During Resection for Colorectal Cancer Does Not Increase Long-term Mortality in a Propensity Score Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lolle, Ida; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian; Schefte, David F

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that long-term mortality is increased in patients who undergo splenectomy during surgery for colorectal cancer. The reason for this association remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between inadvertent...... splenectomy attributed to iatrogenic lesion to the spleen during colorectal cancer resections and long-term mortality in a national cohort of unselected patients. DESIGN: This was a retrospective, nationwide cohort study. SETTINGS: Data were collected from the database of the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group...... for patients surviving 30 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and risk factors for inadvertent splenectomy. Multivariable and propensity-score matched Cox regression analyses were used to adjust for potential confounding. RESULTS: In total, 23,727 patients were included, of which 277...

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YANG Qing; LI MingXing; ZHENG ZiYan; MA ZhuGuo

2017-01-01

The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research.However,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time.Therefore,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices.Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China.However,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly.Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters.The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas.This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas.Consequently,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,respectively.The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000.Consistent with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations.Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven

Drought definitions and processes: how do humans fit in?

Science.gov (United States)

Van Loon, Anne; Van Lanen, Henny; Gleeson, Tom

2015-04-01

and it is important that we consider both natural and human-induced variability instead of long-term change (such as climate change, desertification and depletion). This discussion of revised drought definitions and processes should inform drought quantification, so that the effects of human factors on drought can also be quantified. Just as for floods, the results of these analyses can then feed into the management of highly anthropogenic water systems.

Increased Ratio of Electron Transport to Net Assimilation Rate Supports Elevated Isoprenoid Emission Rate in Eucalypts under Drought1[W][OPEN

Science.gov (United States)

Dani, Kaidala Ganesha Srikanta; Jamie, Ian McLeod; Prentice, Iain Colin; Atwell, Brian James

2014-01-01

Plants undergoing heat and low-CO2 stresses emit large amounts of volatile isoprenoids compared with those in stress-free conditions. One hypothesis posits that the balance between reducing power availability and its use in carbon assimilation determines constitutive isoprenoid emission rates in plants and potentially even their maximum emission capacity under brief periods of stress. To test this, we used abiotic stresses to manipulate the availability of reducing power. Specifically, we examined the effects of mild to severe drought on photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) and net carbon assimilation rate (NAR) and the relationship between estimated energy pools and constitutive volatile isoprenoid emission rates in two species of eucalypts: Eucalyptus occidentalis (drought tolerant) and Eucalyptus camaldulensis (drought sensitive). Isoprenoid emission rates were insensitive to mild drought, and the rates increased when the decline in NAR reached a certain species-specific threshold. ETR was sustained under drought and the ETR-NAR ratio increased, driving constitutive isoprenoid emission until severe drought caused carbon limitation of the methylerythritol phosphate pathway. The estimated residual reducing power unused for carbon assimilation, based on the energetic status model, significantly correlated with constitutive isoprenoid emission rates across gradients of drought (r2 > 0.8) and photorespiratory stress (r2 > 0.9). Carbon availability could critically limit emission rates under severe drought and photorespiratory stresses. Under most instances of moderate abiotic stress levels, increased isoprenoid emission rates compete with photorespiration for the residual reducing power not invested in carbon assimilation. A similar mechanism also explains the individual positive effects of low-CO2, heat, and drought stresses on isoprenoid emission. PMID:25139160

A quantitative analysis of 2-D gels identifies proteins in which labeling is increased following long-term sensitization in Aplysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castellucci, V.F.; Kennedy, T.E.; Kandel, E.R.; Goelet, P.

1988-01-01

Long-term memory for sensitization of the gill- and siphon-withdrawal reflex in Aplysia, produced by 4 days of training, is associated with increased synaptic efficacy of the connection between the sensory and motor neurons. This training is also accompanied by neuronal growth; there is an increase in the number of synaptic varicosities per sensory neuron and in the number of active zones. Such structural changes may be due to changes in the rates of synthesis of certain proteins. We have searched for proteins in which the rates of [ 35 S]methionine labeling are altered during the maintenance phase of long-term memory for sensitization by using computer-assisted quantitative 2-D gel analysis. This method has allowed us to detect 4 proteins in which labeling is altered after 4 days of sensitization training

Long-term meditation is associated with increased gray matter density in the brain stem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vestergaard-Poulsen, Peter; Beek, Martijn van; Skewes, Joshua

2009-01-01

Extensive practice involving sustained attention can lead to changes in brain structure. Here, we report evidence of structural differences in the lower brainstem of participants engaged in the long-term practice of meditation. Using magnetic resonance imaging, we observed higher gray matter...... density in lower brain stem regions of experienced meditators compared with age-matched nonmeditators. Our findings show that long-term practitioners of meditation have structural differences in brainstem regions concerned with cardiorespiratory control. This could account for some...... of the cardiorespiratory parasympathetic effects and traits, as well as the cognitive, emotional, and immunoreactive impact reported in several studies of different meditation practices....

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

2006-01-01

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north.

Science.gov (United States)

Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich

2016-02-01

Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Limited acclimation in leaf anatomy to experimental drought in tropical rainforest trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Binks, Oliver; Meir, Patrick; Rowland, Lucy; da Costa, Antonio Carlos Lola; Vasconcelos, Steel Silva; de Oliveira, Alex Antonio Ribeiro; Ferreira, Leandro; Mencuccini, Maurizio

2016-12-01

Dry periods are predicted to become more frequent and severe in the future in some parts of the tropics, including Amazonia, potentially causing reduced productivity, higher tree mortality and increased emissions of stored carbon. Using a long-term (12 year) through-fall exclusion (TFE) experiment in the tropics, we test the hypothesis that trees produce leaves adapted to cope with higher levels of water stress, by examining the following leaf characteristics: area, thickness, leaf mass per area, vein density, stomatal density, the thickness of palisade mesophyll, spongy mesophyll and both of the epidermal layers, internal cavity volume and the average cell sizes of the palisade and spongy mesophyll. We also test whether differences in leaf anatomy are consistent with observed differential drought-induced mortality responses among taxa, and look for relationships between leaf anatomy, and leaf water relations and gas exchange parameters. Our data show that trees do not produce leaves that are more xeromorphic in response to 12 years of soil moisture deficit. However, the drought treatment did result in increases in the thickness of the adaxial epidermis (TFE: 20.5 ± 1.5 µm, control: 16.7 ± 1.0 µm) and the internal cavity volume (TFE: 2.43 ± 0.50 mm 3 cm -2 , control: 1.77 ± 0.30 mm 3 cm -2 ). No consistent differences were detected between drought-resistant and drought-sensitive taxa, although interactions occurred between drought-sensitivity status and drought treatment for the palisade mesophyll thickness (P = 0.034) and the cavity volume of the leaves (P = 0.025). The limited response to water deficit probably reflects a tight co-ordination between leaf morphology, water relations and photosynthetic properties. This suggests that there is little plasticity in these aspects of plant anatomy in these taxa, and that phenotypic plasticity in leaf traits may not facilitate the acclimation of Amazonian trees to the predicted future reductions in dry

Application of Standardized Precipitation Index to assess meteorological drought in Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Anarul H. Mondol

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Bangladesh is one of the vulnerable countries of the world for natural disasters. Drought is one of the common and severe calamities in Bangladesh that causes immense suffering to people in various ways. The present research has been carried out to examine the frequency of meteorological droughts in Bangladesh using the long-term rainfall data of 30 meteorological observatories covering the period of 1948–2011. The study uses the highly effective Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI for drought assessment in Bangladesh. By assessing the meteorological droughts and the history of meteorological droughts of Bangladesh, the spatial distributions of meteorological drought indices were also analysed. The spatial and temporal changes in meteorological drought and changes in different years based on different SPI month intervals were analysed. The results indicate that droughts were a normal and recurrent feature and it occurred more or less all over the country in virtually all climatic regions of the country. As meteorological drought depends on only rainfall received in an area, anomaly of rainfall is the main cause of drought. Bangladesh experienced drought in the years 1950, 1951, 1953, 1954, 1957, 1958, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1967 and 1971 before independence and after independence Bangladesh has experienced droughts in the years 1972, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2011 during the period 1948–2011. The study indicated that Rajshahi and its surroundings, in the northern regions and Jessore and its surroundings areas, the island Bhola and surrounding regions, in the south-west region, were vulnerable. In the Sylhet division, except Srimongal, the areas were not vulnerable but the eastern southern sides of the districts Chittagong, Rangamati, Khagrachhari, Bandarban and Teknaf were vulnerable. In the central regions, the districts of Mymensingh and Faridpur were more vulnerable

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

[Physiological responses of mycorrhizal Pinus massoniana seedlings to drought stress and drought resistance evaluation].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yi; Ding, Gui-jie

2013-03-01

A greenhouse pot experiment was conducted to study the effects of inoculating Pisolithus tinctorius, Cenococcum geophilum, Cantharellus cibarius, and Suillus luteus on the physiological characteristics of Pinus massoniana seedlings under the conditions of drought stress and re-watering, with the drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings evaluated. Under drought stress, the MDA content and membrane' s relative permeability of P. massoniana seedlings increased, but these two indices in the inoculated (mycorrhizal) seedlings were significantly lower than these in the un-inoculated (control) seedlings. After re-watering, the MDA content and membrane's relative permeability of mycorrhizal seedlings had a rapid decrease, as compared with the control. In the first 21 days of drought stress, the production rate of superoxide radical of the seedlings increased, and the SOD, POD and NR activities of mycorrhizal seedlings increased significantly. With the extending of drought stress, the seedlings after re-watering had different recovery ability. Under the re-watering after 14 days drought stress, the SOD, POD and NR activities recovered. The drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings was in the order of Suillus luteus 1 > Suillus luteus 7 > Cantharellus cibarius > Cenococcum geophilum > Pisolithus tinctorius. The SOD and MDA activities had a greater correlation with the mycorrhizal seedlings drought resistance, being able to be used as the indicators to evaluate the drought resistance of mycorrhizal seedlings.

Riverbank Collapse on the lower Murray River: recent phenomenon or long-term geomorphic process?

Science.gov (United States)

De Carli, E.; Hubble, T.; Jaksa, M.; Clarke, S. L.; Airey, D.; O'Toole, J.; Carpenter, G.

2013-12-01

The lower Murray River connects the Murray-Darling River Basin to the Southern Ocean and drains 14% of Australia's landmass. During the Millennium Drought (1997-2011) record low inflows for the Basin were recorded and the lower Murray River received only 19% of its long-term average inflow for 2008-2009, causing the pool-level in the lowermost reaches near Goolwa to fall 1 m below sea level. This event triggered widespread mass failure in the alluvial river banks and ground subsidence in some river-adjacent floodplain deposits between Blanchetown and Lake Alexandrina. Multi-beam bathymetry, sediment core and geotechnical data are presented for a number of sites investigated between Mannum and White Sands. Interpretation of this data indicates three different bank-failure slide morphologies present in the banks and adjacent channel. Type 1, ';recent' (2009-2011) deep-seated rotational slumps characterised by distinct, sharply-defined failure scars and associated debris fields of angular blocks shed from the failure site. Type 2, ';relatively-recent' shallow planar-failures, with less well-defined smoother failure scars and associated debris fields of smoothed or rounded blocks and pinnacles. Type 3, ';relatively-old' shallow planar-failures characterised by subdued relief slump scars that do not present an associated debris field. It is suspected that successive floods or high-flow events progressively erode and redistribute material, smoothing the landslide scars and redistributing the slide-debris deposits. Bank-failure and the delivery of material from the slides into the channel is interpreted as an ongoing and long-term geomorphic characteristic of the lower Murray River, rather than a new phenomenon that occurred as a response to unusually low river levels during the Millennium Drought. The larger size and rotational style of the recent Type 1 failures is most likely to be a consequence of the drought and anthropogenic modifications of the river channel and

Changes in DNA methylation fingerprint of Quercus ilex trees in response to experimental field drought simulating projected climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Rico, L; Ogaya, R; Barbeta, A; Peñuelas, J

2014-03-01

Rapid genetic changes in plants have been reported in response to current climate change. We assessed the capacity of trees in a natural forest to produce rapid acclimation responses based on epigenetic modifications. We analysed natural populations of Quercus ilex, the dominant tree species of Mediterranean forests, using the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique to assess patterns and levels of methylation in individuals from unstressed forest plots and from plots experimentally exposed to drought for 12 years at levels projected for the coming decades. The percentage of hypermethylated loci increased, and the percentage of fully methylated loci clearly decreased in plants exposed to drought. Multivariate analyses exploring the status of methylation at MSAP loci also showed clear differentiation depending on stress. The PCA scores for the MSAP profiles clearly separated the genetic from the epigenetic structure, and also significantly separated the samples within each group in response to drought. Changes in DNA methylation highlight the large capacity of plants to rapidly acclimate to changing environmental conditions, including trees with long life spans, and our results demonstrate those changes. These changes, although unable to prevent the decreased growth and higher mortality associated with this experimental drought, occurred together with a dampening in such decreases as the long-term treatment progressed. © 2013 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

Science.gov (United States)

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.