Long-Term Problems of Nuclear Energy, December 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broda, E.

1976-01-01

The Text was written by Enelbert Broda in Oktober 1976. In this report, the physicist and chemist Engelbert Broda discusses various areas of peaceful uses of nuclear energy and concludes that the negative aspects outweigh the positive and that the use of nuclear energy has to be rejected in the long term. In 16 chapters the biggest and most dangerous problems are discussed. Include the unresolved question of disposal, problems of reprocessing and transport of fissile materials, the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, risks of terrorism, dismantling and decontamination of old nuclear power plants, the toxicity of fissile material, as well as the general unprofitable use of nuclear power plants. As a long-term alternative the author suggests an intensification of the exploitation of solar energy, as well as a deliberate restriction of the rising demand for energy.(roessner)

Comparing long term energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

2001-01-01

Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

Factors affecting long-term integrity of transmission pipelines; Facteurs affectant l'integrite a long terme des gazoducs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hagiwara, N.; Masuda, T.; Oguchi, N. [Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. (Japan)

2000-07-01

For upgrading long-term integrity of transmission pipelines, two types of delayed fracture in regions of mechanical damage in pipelines were investigated. Experimental and numerical studies clarified factors affecting the fatigue behavior of line pipes containing an idealized flaw under fluctuating internal pressure. To investigate fatigue cracking at mechanical damage in pipelines, degradation of fracture toughness and fatigue properties due to plastic pre-strain was also evaluated. A fracture mechanics-based study revealed conditions necessarily for initiation of hydrogen stress cracking (HSC) at a surface defect in line pipes under cathodic protection. (authors)

Long-term strategies in world energy supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haefele, W.

1980-01-01

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis of Laxenburg, Austria has carried out a comprehensive systems analysis in which the problems of the long-term world energy supply are treated first qualitatively and then quantiatively. The results of this five-year study have been published in a book entitled 'Energy in a Finite World: a Global Energy Systems Analysis.' This summary of the book indicates that the world's energy supply in the next fifty years will not be limited by resources, but the rates at which new technologies will be built up. (orig.) [de

Projection of primary energy in electricity generation with evaluation of demand and supply of energy in the medium-term horizon (2020), long-term (2035) and very long term (2060)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mafra, Olga Y.; Alvim, Carlos Feu; Eidelman, Frida; Guimaraes, Leonam dos Santos

2013-01-01

The Global Energy demand and the participation of electricity in scenarios of medium (2020), long (2035) and very long (2060) terms are estimated. It is also evaluated the share of different primary energies in electricity generation and their availability in the country. Three economic scenarios were considered and different hypothesis regarding the participation of nuclear energy were analyzed. (author)

Long-term equilibrium effects of constraints in energy supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brookes, L.G.

1984-01-01

The subject is covered in sections, entitled: introduction; the economic role of energy; the economics of energy price; a first attempt to model long term effects (energy consumption and economic activity); what is a price hike (energy supply and demand functions before and after price hike); modelling energy price hikes; implications and lessons for nuclear energy; the present reality. (U.K.)

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

2017-01-01

Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou Gaolu

2012-01-01

To reduce its consumption of coal and oil in its primary energy consumption, China promotes the development of renewable energy resources. I have analysed the long-term relationship among China's primary energy consumption sources. Changes in coal consumption lead those in the consumption of other energy sources in the long term. Coal and oil fuels substitute for each other equally. The long-term elasticities of China's coal consumption relative to its hydroelectricity consumption were greater than one and nearly equal during the two sample periods. Therefore, increased hydroelectricity consumption did not imply a reduction in coal consumption. China holds abundant hydroelectricity, wind and, solar energy potential. China must prevent an excessive escalation of its economy and resultant energy demand to realise a meaningful substitution of coal with hydroelectricity. Moreover, China must develop and use wind and solar energy sources. Natural gas can be a good substitute for coal, given its moderate price growth and affordable price levels. - Highlights: ► Coal consumption changes lead those of other energy sources in the long term. ► Coal and oil fuels substitute for each other equally. ► Increased hydroelectricity consumption has not meant lower coal consumption. ► Wind, solar and natural gas are China's promising energy sources.

Fiscal 1999 survey report on long-term energy technological strategies and the like. Long-term energy technological strategy survey (Medium-term energy technological strategy survey); 1999 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku nado ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa (chuki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-03-01

Energy strategies to be implemented under the New Sunshine Program by around 2010 have been compiled, with nation's industrial technological strategies, long-term energy outlook, and the like taken into consideration. The present survey aims to work out medium-term energy technological strategies. In Chapter 2, by conducting studies on the state of energy strategies in the national industry technological strategies as primarily compiled, long-term energy supply and demand outlook, and the history so far of the New Sunshine Program, and social conditions surrounding energy/environmental technologies and energy conditions are arranged in order and then analyzed with a view to deriving social needs. In Chapter 3, in view of the derived social needs, medium-term energy technological strategies are broken down into strategic target details, based on the important regions and major and minor strategic targets of the national industry technological strategies. In Chapter 4, medium-term energy technological strategies are worked out. In Chapter 5, 'basic ideas,' 'measures for promoting technology development,' 'return of the fruits to society' are mentioned as the methods of realizing the strategies. In Chapter 6, surveys and researches are summarized, and future development is predicted. (NEDO)

Long-term alternative energy R and D strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-01-01

Within the coming decades a transition must be initiated from oil and gas to 'unlimited' primary energy sources, i.e., nuclear and solar energy. Ever more expensive fossil energy forms will have to provide for an intermediary solution to the growing global energy demand. While a rather clear-cut picture of the energy problem has emerged on the global level, a straightforward translation to the national or even to the company level is not available. The current study contract between the European Economic Community and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is a first exercice designed to transfer the global results to the intermediary level of the ''Subregion'' of the European Community. In operational terms the contract aims at identifying long-term (up to 2030) alternative energy R and D strategies for twelve European countries that would be consistent with the global scenarios, identified by IIASA

The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fouquet, Roger [London School of Economics and Political Science (United Kingdom); Schubert, E. Fred [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States)

2017-11-01

Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.

Fiscal 1999 survey report on long-term energy technological strategies and the like. Long-term energy technological strategy survey (Medium-term energy technological strategy survey); 1999 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku nado ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa (chuki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-03-01

Energy strategies to be implemented under the New Sunshine Program by around 2010 have been compiled, with nation's industrial technological strategies, long-term energy outlook, and the like taken into consideration. The present survey aims to work out medium-term energy technological strategies. In Chapter 2, by conducting studies on the state of energy strategies in the national industry technological strategies as primarily compiled, long-term energy supply and demand outlook, and the history so far of the New Sunshine Program, and social conditions surrounding energy/environmental technologies and energy conditions are arranged in order and then analyzed with a view to deriving social needs. In Chapter 3, in view of the derived social needs, medium-term energy technological strategies are broken down into strategic target details, based on the important regions and major and minor strategic targets of the national industry technological strategies. In Chapter 4, medium-term energy technological strategies are worked out. In Chapter 5, 'basic ideas,' 'measures for promoting technology development,' 'return of the fruits to society' are mentioned as the methods of realizing the strategies. In Chapter 6, surveys and researches are summarized, and future development is predicted. (NEDO)

Diversity in OECD energy consumption: Achievements and long-term goals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heal, D.W.

1990-01-01

Energy consumption in the industrialized world has resumed a rising trend but has been moderated by increased energy efficiency. The demand for energy is also being spread more evenly over a variety of fuels. This paper provides a measure for diversity and examines the implications for energy prices, while reiterating the long-term goal of lower energy consumption

Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.

1997-01-01

The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E 3 (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E 3 model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E 3 model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues

Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krakowski, R.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology and Safety Assessment Div.

1997-09-24

The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E{sup 3} (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E{sup 3} model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E{sup 3} model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues.

An overview of Ontario's 2013 long term energy plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jobe, C.

2014-01-01

Ontario's 2013 Long Term Energy /Plan (LTEP) takes a pragmatic approach. The plan is designed to balance the following five principles namely: Cost effectiveness, Reliability, Clean energy, Community engagement, and Emphasis on conservation and demand management before building new generation. By taking a pragmatic and flexible approach and balancing these principles, Ontario's 2013 Long Term Energy Plan builds on the foundation laid by the 2010 LTEP while also lowering the projected total system costs. The key elements of the 2013 LTEP are described in this paper by highlighting the major features of these elements. (author)

The role of nuclear energy system for Korean long-term energy supply strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chae, K.N.; Lee, D.G.; Lim, C.Y.; Lee, B.W.

1995-01-01

The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE-III is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Emphasis is placed on the potential contribution of nuclear energy in case of environmental constraints and energy resource limitation. The time horizon is 1993-2040. A program to forecast useful energy demand is developed, and optimization is performed from the overall energy system to the nuclear energy system. Reactor and fuel cycle strategy and the expanded utilization options for nuclear energy system are suggested. FBRs, HTGRs and thorium fuel cycle would play key roles in the long run. The most important factors for nuclear energy in Korean energy supply strategy would be the availability of fossil fuels, CO 2 reduction regulation, and the supply capability of nuclear energy. (author)

Long-term energy planning with uncertain environmental performance metrics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, Simon C.; Djilali, Ned

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Environmental performance uncertainty considered in a long-term energy planning model. • Application to electricity generation planning in British Columbia. • Interactions with climate change mitigation and adaptation strategy are assessed. • Performance risk-hedging impacts the technology investment strategy. • Sensitivity of results to model formulation is discussed. - Abstract: Environmental performance (EP) uncertainties span a number of energy technology options, and pose planning risk when the energy system is subject to environmental constraints. This paper presents two approaches to integrating EP uncertainty into the long-term energy planning framework. The methodologies consider stochastic EP metrics across multiple energy technology options, and produce a development strategy that hedges against the risk of exceeding environmental targets. Both methods are compared within a case study of emission-constrained electricity generation planning in British Columbia, Canada. The analysis provides important insight into model formulation and the interactions with concurrent environmental policy uncertainties. EP risk is found to be particularly important in situations where environmental constraints become increasingly stringent. Model results indicate allocation of a modest risk premium in these situations can provide valuable hedging against EP risk

Long-term energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the Swiss residential sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siller, Thomas; Kost, Michael; Imboden, Dieter

2007-01-01

The aim of this paper is to explore the possibilities to reach two long-term targets regarding energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of the Swiss residential building stock: a reduction of the final energy consumption by a factor of 3 and of CO 2 emissions by a factor of 5 until 2050. A model is constructed to describe the dynamics of the energy-relevant properties of the residential building stock. Appropriate scenarios are discussed in terms of decisions made during construction or renovation of residential buildings which affect heat demand and determine the energy carriers used for heating and hot water generation. We show that both targets could be reached, although ambitious efforts are necessary. The central element of a successful strategy is to reduce the specific heat demand of existing buildings during renovation and to substitute the heating and hot water systems by less carbon intensive ones. Our results suggest that there is more flexibility to reach the emission target than the energy reduction target

Do long-term tongue piercings affect speech quality?

Science.gov (United States)

Heinen, Esther; Birkholz, Peter; Willmes, Klaus; Neuschaefer-Rube, Christiane

2017-10-01

To explore possible effects of tongue piercing on perceived speech quality. Using a quasi-experimental design, we analyzed the effect of tongue piercing on speech in a perception experiment. Samples of spontaneous speech and read speech were recorded from 20 long-term pierced and 20 non-pierced individuals (10 males, 10 females each). The individuals having a tongue piercing were recorded with attached and removed piercing. The audio samples were blindly rated by 26 female and 20 male laypersons and by 5 female speech-language pathologists with regard to perceived speech quality along 5 dimensions: speech clarity, speech rate, prosody, rhythm and fluency. We found no statistically significant differences for any of the speech quality dimensions between the pierced and non-pierced individuals, neither for the read nor for the spontaneous speech. In addition, neither length nor position of piercing had a significant effect on speech quality. The removal of tongue piercings had no effects on speech performance either. Rating differences between laypersons and speech-language pathologists were not dependent on the presence of a tongue piercing. People are able to perfectly adapt their articulation to long-term tongue piercings such that their speech quality is not perceptually affected.

Analysis on long-term perspectives of sustainable nuclear energy towards global warming protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazawa, M.; Ichimura, E.; Shibata, Y.; Kobayashi, K.; Wajima, T.

1998-01-01

Study of long-term perspectives of the nuclear power generation was made from the point of views of both CO 2 emission constraints and sustainability of nuclear energy. To this end, STREAM (Semi-empirical TRiple E Analysis Model) program, as a social model, has been developed by Tokyo Electric Power Co. and Hitachi, Ltd. Using this program, long-term world demands of primary and nuclear energy were deduced, in view of the protection against the global warming due to the CO 2 gas accumulation. The inevitable conclusion has been drawn that nuclear energy plays an indispensable role in the reduction of green house effect. Evaluations were then made on conditions that the nuclear power system would be the long-term major sustainable energy source. (author)

A novel inclusion of intermittent generation resources in long term energy auctions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marambio, Rodrigo; Rudnick, Hugh

2017-01-01

Long term energy auctions are positioning as a valuable tool in order to attract new investments into power systems, especially in Latin American countries where emergent economies characteristics and their correspondent risks are usually present. Even though the focus of these auctions is the long term, there are short term issues involved which actual auction designs fail to include, resulting in an energy allocation that is not necessarily optimal for the system, a condition which becomes more evident in the presence of intermittent renewable technologies. A novel mechanism is formulated to obtain the optimal allocation in long term energy auctions, considering short term generation profiles from both intermittent and conventional base load technologies, and also their risk aversions. The proposed mechanism is developed and simulations are made for some scenarios in the Chilean power market, with different levels of renewable penetration. Significant cost savings are achieved for the final consumers in relation to energy purchases, in comparison with a mechanism that follows the demand profile. As more renewable intermittent capacity enters the power system it is evident the need for changes in the energy auctions allocation mechanisms, including elements to exploit the synergies among participants in the short term. - Highlights: • Risk management consideration in technology neutral auctions allocation. • Allocation mechanism in technology neutral auctions with intermittent technologies. • Renewable and conventional technologies energy auction offer curves. • Increase bid prices in auctions as a consequence of solar technology support.

Binaural auditory beats affect long-term memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Argibay, Miguel; Santed, Miguel A; Reales, José M

2017-12-08

The presentation of two pure tones to each ear separately with a slight difference in their frequency results in the perception of a single tone that fluctuates in amplitude at a frequency that equals the difference of interaural frequencies. This perceptual phenomenon is known as binaural auditory beats, and it is thought to entrain electrocortical activity and enhance cognition functions such as attention and memory. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of binaural auditory beats on long-term memory. Participants (n = 32) were kept blind to the goal of the study and performed both the free recall and recognition tasks after being exposed to binaural auditory beats, either in the beta (20 Hz) or theta (5 Hz) frequency bands and white noise as a control condition. Exposure to beta-frequency binaural beats yielded a greater proportion of correctly recalled words and a higher sensitivity index d' in recognition tasks, while theta-frequency binaural-beat presentation lessened the number of correctly remembered words and the sensitivity index. On the other hand, we could not find differences in the conditional probability for recall given recognition between beta and theta frequencies and white noise, suggesting that the observed changes in recognition were due to the recollection component. These findings indicate that the presentation of binaural auditory beats can affect long-term memory both positively and negatively, depending on the frequency used.

Fusion energy in context: its fitness for the long term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holdren, J.P.

1978-01-01

Long-term limits to growth in energy will be imposed not by inability to expand supply, but by the rising environmental and social costs of doing so. These costs will therefore be cental issues in choosing long-term options. Fusion, like solar energy, is not one possibility but many, some with very attractive environmental characteristics and others perhaps little better in these regards than fission. None of the fusion options will be cheap, and none is likely to be widely available before the year 2010. The most attractive forms of fusion may require greater investments of time and money to achieve, but they are the real reason for wanting fusion at all

The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chae, Kyu Nam

1995-02-01

An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi

1986-03-01

As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

2017-11-01

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

2014-01-01

We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pregger, Thomas; Nitsch, Joachim; Naegler, Tobias

2013-01-01

The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. - Highlights: • Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets. • Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles. • Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs. • Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation. • Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO 2 reductions

Long-term program on research, development and application of atomic energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

As the Committee of Atomic Energy in Japan has established eight times of the 'long-term basic program on development and application of atomic energy at every five years since 1956, these have consistently done every important roles as a leader of programmable promotion of policies on research, development and application of atomic energy in Japan. And, they also have showed some basic concepts on its research, development and application such as safety security, keeping of peaceful application, and so on, and also done a role as a strength with universality for promotion of their sure practices. Then, the Committee requested some surveys and discussions on establishment decided as a new long-term program on May, 1999, to a meeting on establishment of the long-term program, so as to clearly show a basic plan and its promoting measures on research, development and application of atomic energy to be adopted by Japan through the 21st Century under understanding of changes of various affairs after establishment of the previous program, to Japanese peoples, international society and nuclear relatives. The finished program is composed of two parts which are the first part of describing some messages toward Japanese peoples and society and international society and the second part of expressing concrete indications and promoting measures for practicing research, development and application of atomic energy. Here was shown on all sentences of the establishment containing the two parts of present condition and future way on research, development and application of atomic energy' and 'future evolution of research, development and application of atomic energy'. (G.K.)

Increased mitochondrial energy efficiency in skeletal muscle after long-term fasting: its relevance to animal performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourguignon, Aurore; Rameau, Anaïs; Toullec, Gaëlle; Romestaing, Caroline; Roussel, Damien

2017-07-01

In the final stage of fasting, skeletal muscle mass and protein content drastically decrease when the maintenance of efficient locomotor activity becomes crucial for animals to reactivate feeding behaviour and survive a very long period of starvation. As mitochondrial metabolism represents the main physiological link between the endogenous energy store and animal performance, the aim of this study was to determine how a very long, natural period of fasting affected skeletal muscle mitochondrial bioenergetics in king penguin ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) chicks. Rates of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation were measured in pectoralis permeabilized fibres and isolated mitochondria. Mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency and the activities of respiratory chain complexes were measured in mitochondria isolated from pectoralis muscle. Results from long-term (4-5 months) naturally fasted chicks were compared with those from short-term (10 day) fasted birds. The respiratory activities of muscle fibres and isolated mitochondria were reduced by 60% and 45%, respectively, on average in long-term fasted chicks compared with short-term fasted birds. Oxidative capacity and mitochondrial content of pectoralis muscle were lowered by long-term fasting. Bioenergetic analysis of pectoralis muscle also revealed that mitochondria were, on average, 25% more energy efficient in the final stage of fasting (4-5 months) than after 10 days of fasting (short-term fasted birds). These results suggest that the strong reduction in respiratory capacity of pectoralis muscle was partly alleviated by increased mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency. Such oxidative phosphorylation optimization can impact animal performance, e.g. the metabolic cost of locomotion or the foraging efficiency. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despres, Jacques

2015-01-01

The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

1999-07-01

In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demand of Croatian households sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pukšec, Tomislav; Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Duić, Neven

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Long term energy demand of Croatian households sector has been modelled. ► Developed model can describe the whole households sector. ► Main modes include heating, cooling, electrical appliances, cooking and hot water. ► Different scenarios regarding future energy demand are presented and discussed. -- Abstract: Households represent one of the most interesting sectors, when analyzing Croatia’s energy balance. It makes up one of the largest energy consumers with around 75 PJ per year, which is almost 29% of Croatia’s final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing various mechanisms, which would lead to improvements in energy efficiency of this sector, seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems, important would be to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand of different sectors. Through this paper, long term energy demand projections of Croatian households sector will be shown. Focus of the paper will be on various mechanisms influencing future energy demand scenarios. Important would be to quantify this influence, whether positive or negative, and see which mechanisms would be the most significant. Energy demand projections in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and processes a large number of input data. The model will be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy and certain differences and conclusions will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which leads to lower GHG emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

A review of 'long-term energy supply and demand outlook'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoshino, Yuko; Hamagata, Sumio; Nagata, Yutaka

2016-01-01

In this paper, we reviewed the 'Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' based on our original Japan's Economy and Energy Outlook toward 2030. 'The Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' was based on the following three basic policies: (1) Energy self-sufficiency rate in 2030 should be around 25 percent. (2) Electricity Costs in 2030 should be lower than the current level in 2013. (3) Emissions target of GHGs in 2030 should not be lower than that of EU and the US. Moreover, there were many assumptions or constraints, such as assumed economic growth rate consistent to the government's macro-economic policy and the share of renewable energy more than 20 percent. In order to satisfy the above mentioned conditions, an extraordinary energy saving should be implemented in the scenario. The assumed intensity of energy saving is as much as that after the two oil crises. We estimated the cost of that magnitude of energy saving based on our model simulation, which revealed that in order to achieve the energy saving target, the electricity price should be 80% higher than the business as usual case. In addition, we reviewed the long-term energy supply and demand scenarios of major developed countries such as the UK, the US, Italy, Germany and Australia. We found that most of the scenarios depend on a large scale of energy saving in order to achieve the GHG emissions reductions targets. The reality of those energy saving targets should be carefully re-examined under the low oil price environment. (author)

Short-term influences and long-term fundamentals: stabilizing and destabilizing effects in the energy industries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robinson, Silvan [Royal Inst. of International Affairs, London (United Kingdom)

1992-10-01

The ideology of the market economy has become dominant in all walks of economic life and the energy industries are no exception. In the oil business, the stabilizing structures of the international majors and of long-term prices have been replaced by industrial fragmentation and market price mechanisms. Monopolies in other energy industries are being progressively dismantled. This live experiment is being conducted on an industry which historically has suffered from feast and famine economics and has tried to protect itself through various forms of cartelization. The short-term effects of this open market have so far tended to improve flexibility and consumer choice. The price instability has proved manageable. The danger is that cash flow compression will reduced investments in the future and an ability to make very long lead time shifts in the energy mix. For this some government intervention in markets is necessary. (author).

Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klinge Jacobsen, H.

2000-01-01

The material included in the report is a collection of papers dealing with different issues related to the topics included in the title. Some of these papers have already either been published or presented at various conferences. Together with a general introduction, they constitute the author's PhD dissertation. The dissertation includes six papers and two shorter notes on different aspects of structural change of the economy and energy demand. Three different issues related to long-term energy demand are discussed: (1) the importance of technological change and its representation in energy-economy modelling, (2) an integration of two different modelling approaches, and (3) the effect on energy demand of structural changes exemplified by changes in the energy supply sector and in Danish trade patterns. The report highlights a few aspects of the interaction between structural economic changes and energy demand, but it does not intend to cover a wide range of issues related to these topics. In the introductory chapter some discussions and thoughts about issues not covered by the articles are brought forward. The introductory chapter includes an overview of possible relations between longterm energy demand and the economy, technical progress demography, social conditions and politics. The first two papers discuss the importance for projections of long-term energy demand of the way in which technological progress is modelled. These papers focus on energy-economy modelling. A paper dealing with two different approaches to energy demand modelling and the possible integration of these approaches in the Danish case follows next. The integrated Danish model, is then used for analysing different revenue recycling principles in relation to a CO 2 tax. The effect of subsidising biomass use is compared with recycling through corporate tax rates. Then a paper follows describing the structural change of a specific sector, namely the energy supply sector, and the implications for

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

Long-Term Energy Trends – Where Will We Be in 2050?

OpenAIRE

DIAZ-RAINEY, Ivan

2009-01-01

4TH ENERDAY CONFERENCE ON ENERGY ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGY, TU DRESDEN APRIL 3RD, 2009 The fourth gathering of the popular ENERDAY Conference was a one day event guided by the giddy-sounding theme of “LONG-TERM ENERGY TRENDS – WHERE WILL WE BE IN 2050?” The event attracted over 90 European experts in energy policy, energy technology and energy economics from academia, regulators, consultancies, and the energy industry itself. The event took place under the umbrella of TU Dres...

Long-term Postoperative Nutritional Status Affects Prognosis Even After Infectious Complications in Gastric Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiuchi, Jun; Komatsu, Shuhei; Kosuga, Toshiyuki; Kubota, Takeshi; Okamoto, Kazuma; Konishi, Hirotaka; Shiozaki, Atsushi; Fujiwara, Hitoshi; Ichikawa, Daisuke; Otsuji, Eigo

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the clinical impact of postoperative serum albumin level on severe postoperative complications (SPCs) and prognosis. Data for a total of 728 consecutive patients who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer between 2004 and 2013 were retrospectively analyzed. From these patients, a propensity score-matched analysis was performed based on 14 clinicopathological and surgical factors. Short-term decrease in postoperative serum albumin level was not associated with the occurrence of SPCs. Regarding long-term decrease in serum albumin level, a decrease of ≥0.5 g/dl at 3 months did not affect the long-term survival of patients without SPCs, but was related to a significantly poorer prognosis in patients with SPCs. By multivariate analysis, long-term decrease of serum albumin level was an independent prognostic factor in patients with SPCs. Long-term postoperative nutritional status as shown by a low level of albumin was related to prognosis in patients with SPCs. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Proposal of a molten-salt system for long-term energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berthou, V.; Slessarev, I.; Salvatores, M.

2002-01-01

Within the framework of nuclear waste management studies, the 'ose-composent' concept is considered to be an attractive option for the long-term perspective. This paper proposes a new system called TASSE ('Thorium-based Accelerator-drives System with Simplified fuel cycle for long-term Energy production') destined for the current French park renewal. The main idea of the TASSE concept is to simplify both the front end and the back end of the fuel cycle. Its major goal is to provide electricity with low waste production and economical competitiveness. (author)

The role and position of nuclear energy in the long-term energy supply of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao Yunqiao

1992-03-01

The history for development of world nuclear energy and policies in various countries are retrospected, and the development of world nuclear energy is reviewed. On the basis of analysis for the economy of nuclear power in abroad, it is verified that the cost of nuclear power is cheaper than that of coal-fired power. In the future, the nuclear power is still competitive in economy. The prospect for long-term energy supply in China is predicted on the present situation of energy industry. It is estimated that the gap between energy demands and supply will become larger and larger. The solution is to develop nuclear energy in south-east area. The long-term demands of electricity and electrical resources are estimated in China, and if nuclear energy is utilized, it will optimize the constitution of electricity. The economy of nuclear power is also evaluated. It is expected that the nuclear power will be cheaper than that of coal-fired power in China after equipment are made domestically and serially. From the analysis of the conditions of communication, transportation and pollution, the development of nuclear energy will reduce the tension of transportation and improve the environmental quality. Finally, the prospect of developing nuclear heating and the supply level of uranium resources in China are analyzed

Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1997-01-01

A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

Long-term optimal energy mix planning towards high energy security and low GHG emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thangavelu, Sundar Raj; Khambadkone, Ashwin M.; Karimi, Iftekhar A.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We develop long-term energy planning considering the future uncertain inputs. • We analyze the effect of uncertain inputs on the energy cost and energy security. • Conventional energy mix prone to cause high energy cost and energy security issues. • Stochastic and optimal energy mix show benefits over conventional energy planning. • Nuclear option consideration reduces the energy cost and carbon emissions. - Abstract: Conventional energy planning focused on energy cost, GHG emission and renewable contribution based on future energy demand, fuel price, etc. Uncertainty in the projected variables such as energy demand, volatile fuel price and evolution of renewable technologies will influence the cost of energy when projected over a period of 15–30 years. Inaccurate projected variables could affect energy security and lead to the risk of high energy cost, high emission and low energy security. The energy security is an ability of generation capacity to meet the future energy demand. In order to minimize the risks, a generic methodology is presented to determine an optimal energy mix for a period of around 15 years. The proposed optimal energy mix is a right combination of energy sources that minimize the risk caused due to future uncertainties related to the energy sources. The proposed methodology uses stochastic optimization to address future uncertainties over a planning horizon and minimize the variations in the desired performance criteria such as energy security and costs. The developed methodology is validated using a case study for a South East Asian region with diverse fuel sources consists of wind, solar, geothermal, coal, biomass and natural gas, etc. The derived optimal energy mix decision outperformed the conventional energy planning by remaining stable and feasible against 79% of future energy demand scenarios at the expense of 0–10% increase in the energy cost. Including the nuclear option in the energy mix resulted 26

Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

2005-01-01

Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

Science.gov (United States)

Sathre, Roger; Masanet, Eric

2012-09-04

To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.

Energy renovation of single-family houses in Denmark utilising long-term financing based on equity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kragh, Jesper; Rose, Jørgen

2011-01-01

This paper aims to present an economic overview of the opportunities for energy renovation of single-family houses in Denmark financed over the long term. The paper focuses on the economic difference between energy savings and the repayment of investment. Taking out the average remaining 20% equity...... in long-term property mortgage loans and utilising it for extensive energy renovation improves both the economy and the extent of included measures. Approximately 30% of energy consumption in Denmark is used for space heating. The existing 1 million single-family houses account for approximately half...

Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

2011-01-01

demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

2013-01-01

demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

Nuclear energy contribution to restraining greenhouse gas emissions and long-term energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khoda-Bakhsh, R.

2004-01-01

An important source of greenhouse gases, in particular Co 2 , is fossil fuel combustion for energy applications. Since nuclear power is an energy source that does not produce Co 2 , nuclear energy is already making a contribution to restraining greenhouse gas emissions. Because it has been internationally decided to reduce carbon dioxide emission before the year 2005 in order to avoid the green house catastrophy of the earth's atmosphere, and since there is an urgent need of energy especially in the developing countries, there is now a strong demand for alternative energy sources. While the established low cost energy production by light water nuclear fission reactors could be a solution for a period of transition (limited by resources of the light Uranium isotope), fusion energy is of interest for long- term and large scale energy production to provide the increased energy demand

Role of the breeder in long-term energy economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosobud, R.F.; Daly, T.A.; Chang, Y.I.

1982-01-01

Private and public decisions affecting the use of nuclear and other energy technologies over a long-run time horizon were studied using the ETA-MACRO model which provides for economic- and energy-sector interactions. The impact on the use of competing energy technologies of a public decision to apply benefit-cost analysis to the production of carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere is considered. Assuming the public choice is to impose an appropriate penalty tax on those technologies which generate CO 2 and to allow decentralized private decisions to choose the optimal mix of energy technologies that maximize a nonlinear objective function subject to constraints, the study showed that breeder technology provides a much-larger share of domestically consumed energy. Having the breeder technology available as a substitute permits control of CO 2 without significant reductions in consumption or gross national product growth paths

An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gan, Peck Yean; Li, ZhiDong

2008-01-01

We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

Biochemical Mechanisms and Energy Strategies of Geobacter sulfurreducens for Long- Term Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Helmus, R. A.; Liermann, L. J.; Brantley, S. L.; Tien, M.

2008-12-01

Numerous species of bacteria have been observed to exhibit a growth advantage in stationary phase (GASP) phenotype, indicating that microorganisms starved of an energy source may adapt to allow for long-term survival. Understanding how Geobacter sulfurreducens persists using various metal forms as energy sources and whether a GASP phenotype develops during long-term growth are important for efficient application of this bacterium to sites requiring engineered bioremediation of soluble metals. Thus, we investigated the growth kinetics and survival of G. sulfurreducens. The growth rate of G. sulfurreducens was highest when cultured with soluble iron and generally higher on iron oxide than manganese oxide, suggesting that soluble metal forms are more readily utilized as energy sources by G. sulfurreducens. By monitoring the abundance of G. sulfurreducens in batch cultures for >6 months, distinct growth, stationary, and prolonged starvation phases were observed and a cell density of 105- 106 cells/mL persisted under long-term starvation conditions. The outgrowth of an aged G. sulfurreducens strain co-cultured with a young strain was monitored as a measure of the existence of the GASP phenotype. As the strains aged, the rpoS gene was cloned and sequenced at different stages of growth to identify mutations corresponding to a growth advantage. The results of these studies provide insight into the use of various metal forms for growth by G. sulfurreducens and its ability to persist when starved of energy sources.

Energy Policy and Long Term Energy Demand in Croatian Households Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puksec, T.; Duic, N.

2011-01-01

Households sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today with around 75,75PJ, which is almost 29% of Croatia's final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing different mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and process large number of input data. The Model will be compared to Croatian national Energy Strategy and certain difference will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels. (author)

An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gan, Peck Yean [Department of Engineering-Energy and Environment Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan); Li, ZhiDong [Department of Management and Information System Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan)

2008-02-15

We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit

2012-01-01

Buildings are an important contributor to China's energy consumption and attendant CO 2 emissions. Measures to address energy consumption and associated emissions from the buildings sector will be an important part of strategy to reduce the country's CO 2 emissions. This study presents a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy demand, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explored long-term pathways of China's building energy demand and identified opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A range of different scenarios was also developed to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth: In the reference scenarios, the sector's final energy demand will increase by 110–150% by 2050 and 160–220% by 2095 from its 2005 level. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy. -- Highlights: ► We developed a building energy model for China, nested in an integrated-assessment framework. ► We explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use by implementing a range of scenarios. ► China's building energy consumption will continue to grow and be electrified over the century. ► Improved building energy technology will slow down the growth in building energy consumption. ► Electrification will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

Long-term cost targets for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; McDonald, A.

2004-01-01

In 2000 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) to help guide nuclear R and D strategies targeted on anticipated mid-century energy system needs. One part of INPRO seeks to develop cost targets for new designs to be competitive in mid-century markets. The starting point was the 40 scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper summarizes four of the SRES scenarios, one from each of the four SRES scenario families. It discusses their implications for nuclear energy, including cost targets, and develops for each an 'aggressive nuclear' variant. The aggressive nuclear variants estimate the potential market for nuclear energy if, by improving faster than assumed by the SRES authors, nuclear energy can make inroads into vulnerable market shares projected for its competitors. In addition to projected demands for nuclear generated electricity, hydrogen and heat, the aggressive variants include prospective demand for nuclear desalination and use in upgrading fossil fuels. The paper then presents learning rates and implied cost targets consistent with the aggressive nuclear variants of the SRES scenarios. One provocative initial result is that many of the scenarios with substantial nuclear expansion do not seem to require big reductions in nuclear investment costs. One interpretation discussed at the end of the paper highlights the difference between cost reductions consistent with long-term energy system optimization based on perfect foresight, and cost reductions necessary to attract private investment in today's 'deregulating' and uncertain energy markets. (orig.)

Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despres, Jacques

2015-12-01

Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment and Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios. (author)

Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usher, Will; Strachan, Neil

2012-01-01

Over the next decade, large energy investments are required in the UK to meet growing energy service demands and legally binding emission targets under a pioneering policy agenda. These are necessary despite deep mid-term (2025–2030) uncertainties over which national policy makers have little control. We investigate the effect of two critical mid-term uncertainties on optimal near-term investment decisions using a two-stage stochastic energy system model. The results show that where future fossil fuel prices are uncertain: (i) the near term hedging strategy to 2030 differs from any one deterministic fuel price scenario and is structurally dissimilar to a simple ‘average’ of the deterministic scenarios, and (ii) multiple recourse strategies from 2030 are perturbed by path dependencies caused by hedging investments. Evaluating the uncertainty under a decarbonisation agenda shows that fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive at around £20 billion. The addition of novel mitigation options reduces the value of fossil fuel price uncertainty to £11 billion. Uncertain biomass import availability shows a much lower value of uncertainty at £300 million. This paper reveals the complex relationship between the flexibility of the energy system and mitigating the costs of uncertainty due to the path-dependencies caused by the long-life times of both infrastructures and generation technologies. - Highlights: ► Critical mid-term uncertainties affect near-term investments in UK energy system. ► Deterministic scenarios give conflicting near-term actions. ► Stochastic scenarios give one near-term hedging strategy. ► Technologies exhibit path dependency or flexibility. ► Fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive, biomass availability uncertainty is not.

A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

2005-02-01

This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

Global economics/energy/environmental (E{sup 3}) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1997-09-01

A global energy, economics, environment (E{sup 3}) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors.

Economical comparison of imported energy sources in terms of long-term production planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gungor, Z.

1999-01-01

In this paper, the Turkish energy production sector is studied and power plants fueled by natural gas, imported coal and nuclear power are compared in terms of long-term (1996-2010) production economy. A net present value is used for comparing nuclear, coal and natural gas power plants. A scenario approach is utilized in establishing the effects of different factors, such as inflation rate, unit of investment costs, load factor change, discount rate and fuel price changes. Six different scenarios of interest are developed and discussed. The study ends with conclusions and recommendations based on a study of a reference scenario and alternative scenarios. (author)

Long term agreements energy efficiency. Progress 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-11-01

Long Term Agreements (LTAs) on energy efficiency have been contracted with various business sectors since 1992, as part of energy conservation policy: industrial sectors, commercial services, agrarian sectors and non-profit services. LTAs are voluntary agreements between a specific sector and the Minister of Economic Affairs. In some cases, the Minister of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries is also involved. The sector commits to an effort to improve energy efficiency by a particular percentage within an agreed period. As at 31 December 1999, a total of 29 LTAs had been contracted with industrial sectors and 14 with non-industrial ones. This report describes the progress of the LTAs in 1999. It reviews the energy efficiency improvements realised through the LTAs, both overall and in each individual sector. The aim is to make the efforts and results in the various sectors accessible to the general public. Appendix 1 describes the positioning of the LTA instrument. This Appendix provides and insight into the position of the LTAs within the overall set of policy instruments. It also covers the subsidy schemes and fiscal instruments that support the LTAs, the relationships between LTAs and environmental policy and new developments relating to the LTAs in the years ahead. Appendices 2 to 6 contain the reports on the LTAs and a list of abbreviations (Appendix 7)

Long-term development of the Swedish market of energy wood

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dickens, C H

1980-03-01

The aim of the report is to elucidate the long-term development. The sort of wood for industrial purposes also seems to be best suited for the introduction in fuel supply. This might change the conditions precedent for the manufacturing - refining industry. The appraisement should thus cover the total wood market. The report considers three time spans namely the historical development, the description of the actual situation and an estimate of the future. The actual situation presents large regional differences which must be observed for times to come. The potential of the wood industry is its proximity to the European market, its character of long-term productivity, the technical qualifications and its unexploited opportunities as to the markets and the raw materials. The problems of the industry are the following: economy, the energy situation and the limited supply of raw products. The essential parts of the strategy of means are as follows - marketing, product development, the utilization of the qualities of the raw products, improvement of process techniques and the development of a market for energy wood and peat. The study presents recommendations of continued analysis of the market based upon regions of the size of administrative districts.

Communication on energy: who pays for the long-term costs of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeffery, J.W.

1987-01-01

The question in the title arises in making a fair comparison between a coal-fired station, which has no long-term costs, and a nuclear station, whose large long-term costs are discounted into insignificance by the present method of calculation. This problem was raised by the present author in his evidence to the Sizewell Inquiry, and has recently been discussed by the House of Commons Select Committee on Energy, who expressed grave disquiet that 'the costs of decommissioning become almost irrelevant to the current economics of nuclear power'. The present article analyses the bizarre effects of long-term discounting, and suggests a method of making a fair and symmetrical comparison between coal-fired and nuclear stations. (author)

Assessing Smart Grids contribution to the energy transition with long-term scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouckaert, Stephanie

2013-01-01

In the context of discussions on the energy transition, the general consensus is that part of the solution could come from Smart Grids to deal both with climate and energy issues. Prospective energy systems models may be used to estimate the long-term development of the energy system in order to meet future energy demands while taking into account environmental and technical constraints. These historical models are demand driven and should from now on evolve to considerate future developments of the electricity system. In this study, we have implemented some functionalities related to the concept of Smart Grids in a long-term planning model (demand-side integration, storage, renewable energy). This approach makes it possible to evaluate their benefits separately or collectively, taking into account possible interactions between these functionalities. We have also implemented an indicator reflecting the level of reliability of the electricity system in our model. This additional parameter enables to constrain future electricity systems to ensure a level of reliability identical to the existing one. Our analysis is demonstrated by the case of the Reunion Island, which aims to produce electricity using 100% renewable sources by 2030, and for which Smart Grids functionalities are also potential solutions for reaching this objective. (author) [fr

Hippocampal Focal Knockout of CBP Affects Specific Histone Modifications, Long-Term Potentiation, and Long-Term Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Ruth M; Malvaez, Melissa; Kramar, Eniko; Matheos, Dina P; Arrizon, Abraham; Cabrera, Sara M; Lynch, Gary; Greene, Robert W; Wood, Marcelo A

2011-01-01

To identify the role of the histone acetyltransferase (HAT) CREB-binding protein (CBP) in neurons of the CA1 region of the hippocampus during memory formation, we examine the effects of a focal homozygous knockout of CBP on histone modifications, gene expression, synaptic plasticity, and long-term memory. We show that CBP is critical for the in vivo acetylation of lysines on histones H2B, H3, and H4. CBP's homolog p300 was unable to compensate for the loss of CBP. Neurons lacking CBP maintained phosphorylation of the transcription factor CREB, yet failed to activate CREB:CBP-mediated gene expression. Loss of CBP in dorsal CA1 of the hippocampus resulted in selective impairments to long-term potentiation and long-term memory for contextual fear and object recognition. Together, these results suggest a necessary role for specific chromatin modifications, selectively mediated by CBP in the consolidation of memories. PMID:21508930

The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: Forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galli, R.; Univ. della Svizzera Italiana, Lugano

1998-01-01

This paper analyzes long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in the author's sample. Energy demand functions are estimated during 1973--1990 using a quadratic function of log income. The long-run coefficient on squared income is found to be negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. The estimates are then used to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. It is found that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

2017-11-03

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

Role of the breeder in long term energy economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosobud, R.F.; Chang, Y.I.; Daly, T.A.

1982-01-01

In this study the authors report the results of their study of private and public decisions affecting the use of nuclear and other energy technologies over a long run time horizon. For this purpose, the authors employ the well known ETA-MACRO model which provides for economic and energy sector interactions. In this first of their planned series of studies, they consider the impact on the use of competing energy technologies of a public decision to apply benefit-cost analysis to the production of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that enters the atmosphere. Assuming the public choice is to impose an appropriate penalty tax on those technologies which generate CO 2 and to allow decentralized private decisions to choose the optimal mix of energy technologies that maximize a nonlinear objective function subject to constraints, the authors find that the breeder technology is chosen to provide a much larger share of domestically consumed energy. Having the breeder technology available as a substitute permits control of CO 2 without significant reductions in consumption or gross national product growth paths

University of Minnesota Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) project report on the first long-term cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, M.

1991-10-01

The technical feasibility of high-temperature (greater than 100 C) aquifer thermal energy storage (IOTAS) in a deep, confined aquifer was tested in a series of experimental cycles at the University of Minnesota's St. Paul field test facility (FTF). This report describes the additions to the FTF for the long-term cycles and the details of the first long-term cycle (LT1) that was conducted from November 1984 through May 1985. Heat recovery; operational experience; and thermal, chemical, hydrologic, and geologic aspects of LT1 are reported. The permits for long-term cycles required the addition of a monitoring well 30.5 m from the storage well for monitoring near the edge of the thermally affected area and allowed the addition of a cation-exchange water softener to enable continuous operation during the injection phase. Approximately 62 percent of the 9.47 GWh of energy added to the 9.21 x 10(exp 4) cu m of ground water stored in the aquifer LT1 was recovered. Ion-exchange water softening of the heated and stored ground water prevented scaling in the system heat exchangers and the storage well and changed the major-ion chemistry of the stored water. Temperatures at the storage horizons in site monitoring wells reached as high as 108 C during the injection phase of LT1. Following heat recovery, temperatures were less than 30 C at the same locations. Less permeable horizons underwent slow temperature changes. No thermal or chemical effects were observed at the remote monitoring site.

Long-term continuous energy injection in the afterglow of GRB 060729

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Ming; Huang Yongfeng; Lu Tan

2009-01-01

A long plateau phase and an amazing level of brightness have been observed in the X-ray afterglow of GRB 060729. This peculiar light curve is likely due to long-term energy injection in external shock. Here, we present a detailed numerical study of the energy injection process of magnetic dipole radiation from a strongly magnetized millisecond pulsar and model the multi-band afterglow observations. It is found that this model can successfully explain the long plateaus in the observed X-ray and optical afterglow light curves. The sharp break following the plateaus could be due to the rapid decline of the emission power of the central pulsar. At an even later time (∼ 5 x 10 6 s), an obvious jet break appears, which implies a relatively large half opening angle of θ ∼ 0.3 for the GRB ejecta. Due to the energy injection, the Lorentz factor of the outflow is still larger than two even at 10 7 s after the GRB trigger, making the X-ray afterglow of this burst detectable by Chandra even 642 d after the burst.

Undertaking high impact strategies: The role of national efficiency measures in long-term energy and emission reduction in steel making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Tengfang; Karali, Nihan; Sathaye, Jayant

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Evaluate long-term effects of national energy efficiency in steel making. • Use bottom-up optimization for projection in China, India and the U.S. • The effects include changes in steel production, energy use, emissions, and costs. • Three emission targets induce different structural changes and investments. • Projected energy and CO 2 intensity declines in each country from 2010 to 2050. - Abstract: In this paper, we applied bottom-up linear optimization modeling to analyze long-term national impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures on energy savings, CO 2 -emission reduction, production, and costs of steel making in China, India, and the U.S. We first established two base scenarios representing business-as-usual steel production for each country from 2010 to 2050; Base scenario (in which no efficiency measure is available) and Base-E scenario (in which efficiency measures are available), and model scenarios representing various emission-reduction targets that affects production, annual energy use and costs with the goal of cost minimization. A higher emission-reduction target generally induces larger structural changes and increased investments in nation-wide efficiency measures, in addition to autonomous improvement expected in the Base scenario. Given the same emission-reduction target compared to the base scenario, intensity of annual energy use and emissions exhibits declining trends in each country from year 2010 to 2050. While a higher emission-reduction target result in more energy reduction from the base scenario, such reduction can become more expensive to achieve. The results advance our understanding of long-term effects of national energy efficiency applications under different sets of emission-reduction targets for steel sectors in the three major economies, and provide useful implications for high impact strategies to manage production structures, production costs, energy use, and emission reduction in steel making

Energy development and environment: What about solar energy in a long term perspective?

Science.gov (United States)

Dessus, Benjamin; Pharabod, Francois

After decades of strong growth, the next century might be that in which the world population is stabilized around 11 billion inhabitants. Next century's main concerns include the development hoped for the probable consequences of an increase of the greenhouse effect due to main induced emissions, and the risks posed by possible dissemination of nuclear energy to all the regions of the globe. In order to shed some light on these questions, we propose an energy scenario, based on an analysis of evolution of demographics, energy needs, renewable and fossil reserves, environmental issues, technological possibilities and regional imbalances. This scenario shows that solar energy could contribute significantly in the long term energy mix. We discuss the respective advantages and drawbacks of the different solar technologies: solar power satellites, ground solar power plants and decentralized applications, as they to the needs that must be satisfied.

Long-Term Monitoring of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Development and Application of Remote Sensing Technologies: Summary Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamada, Yuki [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division; Grippo, Mark A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division; Smith, Karen P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division

2014-09-30

In anticipation of increased utility-scale solar energy development over the next 20 to 50 years, federal agencies and other organizations have identified a need to develop comprehensive long-term monitoring programs specific to solar energy development. Increasingly, stakeholders are requesting that federal agencies, such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management (BLM), develop rigorous and comprehensive long-term monitoring programs. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is assisting the BLM in developing an effective long-term monitoring plan as required by the BLM Solar Energy Program to study the environmental effects of solar energy development. The monitoring data can be used to protect land resources from harmful development practices while at the same time reducing restrictions on utility-scale solar energy development that are determined to be unnecessary. The development of a long-term monitoring plan that incorporates regional datasets, prioritizes requirements in the context of landscape-scale conditions and trends, and integrates cost-effective data collection methods (such as remote sensing technologies) will translate into lower monitoring costs and increased certainty for solar developers regarding requirements for developing projects on public lands. This outcome will support U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Sunshot Program goals. For this reason, the DOE provided funding for the work presented in this report.

Long-term scenarios for sustainable energy use in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischedick, M.; Nitsch, J.; Lechtenboehmer, S.; Hanke, T.; Barthel, C.; Jungbluth, C.; Assmann, D.; Brueggen, T. vor der; Trieb, F.; Nast, M.; Langniss, O.; Brischke, L.A.

2002-01-01

The study was able to show, and explain vividly through scenarios describing change processes, that a sustainable use of energy (aimed, among other things, at reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels) is technically feasible, economically viable, compatible with farther-reaching objectives of energy policy (e.g. supply security), and does not, in spite of the substantial need for change, present the players involved with any insurmountable problems but, rather, constitutes both a challenge and an opportunity. Such a development is possible only if the efforts launched to give momentum to the increased use of renewable energy sources are continued consistently, the impending need for replacement and renewal within the generation system is consistently utilised for increasing efficiency and a reorientation mainly towards combined heat and power production, and energy saving is made a new focal point of energy policy. Furthermore, with regard to long-term infrastructure requirements (decentralisation, new fuels), the necessary decisions must be prepared at an early stage and sufficiently robust lines of development must be identified and followed. (orig.) [de

Long-term treatment effect of trauma-affected refugees with flexible cognitive behavioural therapy and antidepressants.

Science.gov (United States)

Buhmann, Caecilie Böck; Nordentoft, Merete; Ekstroem, Morten; Carlsson, Jessica; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

2018-04-04

Few studies exist on the long-term effect of treatment of trauma-affected refugees. The purpose of this study was to estimate the long-term treatment effects of cognitive behavioural therapy and antidepressants (sertraline and mianserin) in trauma-affected refugees. Follow-ups were conducted 6 and 18 months after a randomised controlled clinical trial. The included patients were refugees with war-related traumatic experiences, PTSD and without psychotic disorders. We found a small improvement over time in PTSD, depression and anxiety symptoms and level of functioning, but the improvement was not associated with any specific treatment. Personality change after catastrophic experiences and life events influenced the symptom level at all follow-ups while depression at completion of treatment was associated with a steeper decline in symptom load at the follow-ups. In spite of the limited decline in symptom scores and treatment effects immediately after treatment, the condition of the treated trauma-affected refugees was significantly improved 6 and 18 months after treatment although the improvement was small. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reporting on Long-Term Value Creation—The Example of Public Canadian Energy and Mining Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra F. A. Dilling

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study empirically analyzes reporting on long-term value creation for Canadian public mining and energy companies. It represents an important first step in determining the quality of reporting and its determinants for large public companies. In this exploratory empirical study, a reporting quality scoring index was developed to measure disclosure quality of long-term value creation reporting. Content analysis was used to examine financial and sustainability reports for a sample of twenty Canadian public mining and energy companies. Corporate disclosure quality scores were then calculated by assessing the quality of reporting in four main categories. The findings suggest that overall disclosure quality on long-term value creation is still low. Companies disclosing higher quality information on long-term value creation are of bigger size, operate in the basic materials sector, have an independent board, are listed in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, experience higher stock volatility and use more words related to long-term value creation in their annual financial and non-financial reports. In order to increase and restore stakeholder trust and credibility as well as a tool to maintain stability, it is strongly recommended to introduce adequate mandatory standardization resulting in a set of internationally recognized reporting standards as well as a requirement for external assurance of reports.

US long-term energy intensity: Backcast and projection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dowlatabadi, Hadi; Oravetz, Matthew A.

2006-01-01

Energy intensity of the economy is often modeled as being determined by the combined effect of a fixed price elasticity of demand, and an exogenously specified, fixed technical change parameter denoted as the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Typically, the AEEI rate is set to 0.5-1.5% improvement per annum. Here, we study historic aggregate energy intensity trends for the US from 1954 to 1994. We show that the historic trends are inconsistent with an autonomous model of improved energy efficiency-especially when the model is used to inform policies that impact energy prices. As an alternative we propose a model of price-induced efficiency, π, in which aggregate energy intensity trends respond to changes in energy prices beyond price elasticity of demand ε. Our exercise reveals that the aggregate price elasticity of energy demand of the US economy has declined by roughly 15% over the past four decades. But beyond this decline, bringing our simulations and historical data into close correspondence requires π to change sign before and after 1974. Before 1974, after accounting for price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing less energy efficient. After 1974, after accounting for the price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing more energy efficient. Furthermore, since 1984, the rate of energy efficiency gain has been declining. When projections of long-term energy use are compared, those with a price-induced energy efficiency formulation generate significantly more price sensitive energy use and emissions trajectories. When in the business as usual scenario energy prices are expected to be rising, climate policies involve lower shadow carbon prices with π than with AEEI formulations. In scenarios where energy prices are relatively flat, energy intensity rises leading to CO 2 emissions far higher than standard business as usual projections utilizing AEEI assumptions

US long-term energy intensity: backcast and projection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Oravetz, M.A.

2006-01-01

Energy intensity of the economy is often modeled as being determined by the combined effect of a fixed price elasticity of demand, and an exogenously specified, fixed technical change parameter denoted as the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Typically, the AEEI rate is set to 0.5-1.5% improvement per annum. Here, we study historic aggregate energy intensity trends for the US from 1954 to 1994. We show that the historic trends are inconsistent with an autonomous model of improved energy efficiency - especially when the model is used to inform policies that impact energy prices. As an alternative we propose a model of price-induced efficiency, π, in which aggregate energy intensity trends respond to changes in energy prices beyond price elasticity of demandε. Our exercise reveals that the aggregate price elasticity of energy demand of the US economy has declined by roughly 15% over the past four decades. But beyond this decline, bringing our simulations and historical data into close correspondence requires π to change sign before and after 1974. Before 1974, after accounting for price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing less energy efficient. After 1974, after accounting for the price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing more energy efficient. Furthermore, since 1984, the rate of energy efficiency gain has been declining. When projections of long-term energy use are compared, those with a price-induced energy efficiency formulation generate significantly more price sensitive energy use and emissions trajectories. When in the business as usual scenario energy prices are expected to be rising, climate policies involve lower shadow carbon prices with π than with AEEI formulations. In scenarios where energy prices are relatively flat, energy intensity rises leading to CO 2 emissions far higher than standard business as usual projections utilizing AEEI assumptions. (Author)

US long-term energy intensity: backcast and projection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H. [University of British Columbia, Vancouver (Canada); Oravetz, M.A. [International Energy Agency, Paris (France)

2006-11-15

Energy intensity of the economy is often modeled as being determined by the combined effect of a fixed price elasticity of demand, and an exogenously specified, fixed technical change parameter denoted as the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Typically, the AEEI rate is set to 0.5-1.5% improvement per annum. Here, we study historic aggregate energy intensity trends for the US from 1954 to 1994. We show that the historic trends are inconsistent with an autonomous model of improved energy efficiency - especially when the model is used to inform policies that impact energy prices. As an alternative we propose a model of price-induced efficiency, {pi}, in which aggregate energy intensity trends respond to changes in energy prices beyond price elasticity of demand{epsilon}. Our exercise reveals that the aggregate price elasticity of energy demand of the US economy has declined by roughly 15% over the past four decades. But beyond this decline, bringing our simulations and historical data into close correspondence requires {pi} to change sign before and after 1974. Before 1974, after accounting for price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing less energy efficient. After 1974, after accounting for the price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing more energy efficient. Furthermore, since 1984, the rate of energy efficiency gain has been declining. When projections of long-term energy use are compared, those with a price-induced energy efficiency formulation generate significantly more price sensitive energy use and emissions trajectories. When in the business as usual scenario energy prices are expected to be rising, climate policies involve lower shadow carbon prices with {pi} than with AEEI formulations. In scenarios where energy prices are relatively flat, energy intensity rises leading to CO{sub 2} emissions far higher than standard business as usual projections utilizing AEEI assumptions. (Author)

Delayed Dopamine Signaling of Energy Level Builds Appetitive Long-Term Memory in Drosophila

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierre-Yves Musso

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Sensory cues relevant to a food source, such as odors, can be associated with post-ingestion signals related either to food energetic value or toxicity. Despite numerous behavioral studies, a global understanding of the mechanisms underlying these long delay associations remains out of reach. Here, we demonstrate in Drosophila that the long-term association between an odor and a nutritious sugar depends on delayed post-ingestion signaling of energy level. We show at the neural circuit level that the activity of two pairs of dopaminergic neurons is necessary and sufficient to signal energy level to the olfactory memory center. Accordingly, we have identified in these dopaminergic neurons a delayed calcium trace that correlates with appetitive long-term memory formation. Altogether, these findings demonstrate that the Drosophila brain remembers food quality through a two-step mechanism that consists of the integration of olfactory and gustatory sensory information and then post-ingestion energetic value.

Delayed dopamine signaling of energy level builds appetitive long-term memory in Drosophila.

Science.gov (United States)

Musso, Pierre-Yves; Tchenio, Paul; Preat, Thomas

2015-02-24

Sensory cues relevant to a food source, such as odors, can be associated with post-ingestion signals related either to food energetic value or toxicity. Despite numerous behavioral studies, a global understanding of the mechanisms underlying these long delay associations remains out of reach. Here, we demonstrate in Drosophila that the long-term association between an odor and a nutritious sugar depends on delayed post-ingestion signaling of energy level. We show at the neural circuit level that the activity of two pairs of dopaminergic neurons is necessary and sufficient to signal energy level to the olfactory memory center. Accordingly, we have identified in these dopaminergic neurons a delayed calcium trace that correlates with appetitive long-term memory formation. Altogether, these findings demonstrate that the Drosophila brain remembers food quality through a two-step mechanism that consists of the integration of olfactory and gustatory sensory information and then post-ingestion energetic value. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Technological progress and long-term energy demand - a survey of recent approaches and a Danish case

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

2001-01-01

This paper discusses di!erent approaches to incorporating technological progress in energy-economy models and the e!ecton long-term energy demand projections. Approaches to modelling based on an exogenous annual change of energy e$ciencyto an endogenous explanation of innovation for energy...... technologies are covered. Technological progress is an important issue for modelling long-term energy demand and is often characterised as the main contributor to the di!erent energy demand forecasts from di!erent models. New economic theoretical developments in the "elds of endogenous growth and industrial...... description, two models of residential energy demand in Denmark are compared. A Danish macroeconometric model is compared to a technological vintage model that is covering electric appliances and residential heating demand. The energy demand projection of the two models diverges, and the underlying...

Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hainoun, A.; Seif Aldin, M.; Almoustafa, S.

2010-01-01

An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003-2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy. The employing of sensitivity analysis clarifies the importance of wind turbines operation time and discount rate. The analysis proves that nuclear option is insensitive to overnight cost increase up to 85% of the reference case value.

Nutrition in children with long-term health conditions

OpenAIRE

Westwood, A

2015-01-01

Long-term health conditions (LTHCs) in children may affect nutrition and growth by means of multiple mechanisms. Both undernutrition and overweight/obesity are risk factors. Direct effects of the condition that may cause undernutrition include increased resting energy expenditure, excess losses through malabsorption, difficulty ingesting food, and decreased appetite. Indirect effects of LTHCs may be mediated by learnt or adaptive behaviours, secondary anorexia, inappropriate diets, or conditi...

Contribution to a proposition for a long term development of nuclear energy: the TASSE concept (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production); Contribution a une proposition d'un developpement a long terme de l'energie nucleaire: le concept TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berthou, V

2000-10-30

Nuclear industry creates waste which are in the middle of the discussion concerning the Nuclear Energy future. At this time, important decisions for the Energy production must be taken, so numerous researches are conducted within the framework of the Bataille law. The goal of these studies is to find a range of solutions concerning the waste management. An innovative system, called TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production), is studied in this thesis. This reactor is included in a long term strategy, and is destined for the renewal of the reactor park. In the first part of this work, the main characteristics of TASSE have been defined. They are commensurate with some specific requirements such as: to insure a large time to the Nuclear Energy, to reduce the waste production in an important way, to eliminate waste already stocked in the present park, to insure the non proliferation, and to be economically competitive. Neutronics studies of TASSE have been done. A calculation procedure has been developed to reach the system equilibrium state. Several types of molten salts as well as a pebble-bed fuel have been studied. Thus, an optimal fuel has been brought out in regard to some parameters such as the burn up level, the spectrum, the waste toxicity, the cycle type. Eventually, various TASSE core layout have been envisaged. (author)

Contribution to a proposition for a long term development of nuclear energy: the TASSE concept (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production); Contribution a une proposition d'un developpement a long terme de l'energie nucleaire: le concept TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berthou, V

2000-10-30

Nuclear industry creates waste which are in the middle of the discussion concerning the Nuclear Energy future. At this time, important decisions for the Energy production must be taken, so numerous researches are conducted within the framework of the Bataille law. The goal of these studies is to find a range of solutions concerning the waste management. An innovative system, called TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production), is studied in this thesis. This reactor is included in a long term strategy, and is destined for the renewal of the reactor park. In the first part of this work, the main characteristics of TASSE have been defined. They are commensurate with some specific requirements such as: to insure a large time to the Nuclear Energy, to reduce the waste production in an important way, to eliminate waste already stocked in the present park, to insure the non proliferation, and to be economically competitive. Neutronics studies of TASSE have been done. A calculation procedure has been developed to reach the system equilibrium state. Several types of molten salts as well as a pebble-bed fuel have been studied. Thus, an optimal fuel has been brought out in regard to some parameters such as the burn up level, the spectrum, the waste toxicity, the cycle type. Eventually, various TASSE core layout have been envisaged. (author)

Long-term monitoring of Sacramento Shade program trees: tree survival, growth and energy-saving performance

Science.gov (United States)

Yekang Ko; Jun-Hak Lee; E. Gregory McPherson; Lara A. Roman

2015-01-01

Long-term survival and growth of urban forests are critical to achieve the targeted benefits of urban tree planting programs, such as building energy savings from tree shade. However, little is known about how trees perform in the long-term, especially in residential areas. Given this gap in the literature, we monitored 22-years of post-planting survival, growth, and...

Use of Bayesian networks classifiers for long-term mean wind turbine energy output estimation at a potential wind energy conversion site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carta, Jose A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Campus de Tafira s/n, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands (Spain); Velazquez, Sergio [Department of Electronics and Automatics Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Campus de Tafira s/n, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands (Spain); Matias, J.M. [Department of Statistics, University of Vigo, Lagoas Marcosende, 36200 Vigo (Spain)

2011-02-15

Due to the interannual variability of wind speed a feasibility analysis for the installation of a Wind Energy Conversion System at a particular site requires estimation of the long-term mean wind turbine energy output. A method is proposed in this paper which, based on probabilistic Bayesian networks (BNs), enables estimation of the long-term mean wind speed histogram for a site where few measurements of the wind resource are available. For this purpose, the proposed method allows the use of multiple reference stations with a long history of wind speed and wind direction measurements. That is to say, the model that is proposed in this paper is able to involve and make use of regional information about the wind resource. With the estimated long-term wind speed histogram and the power curve of a wind turbine it is possible to use the method of bins to determine the long-term mean energy output for that wind turbine. The intelligent system employed, the knowledgebase of which is a joint probability function of all the model variables, uses efficient calculation techniques for conditional probabilities to perform the reasoning. This enables automatic model learning and inference to be performed efficiently based on the available evidence. The proposed model is applied in this paper to wind speeds and wind directions recorded at four weather stations located in the Canary Islands (Spain). Ten years of mean hourly wind speed and direction data are available for these stations. One of the conclusions reached is that the BN with three reference stations gave fewer errors between the real and estimated long-term mean wind turbine energy output than when using two measure-correlate-predict algorithms which were evaluated and which use a linear regression between the candidate station and one reference station. (author)

Use of Bayesian networks classifiers for long-term mean wind turbine energy output estimation at a potential wind energy conversion site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carta, Jose A.; Velazquez, Sergio; Matias, J.M.

2011-01-01

Due to the interannual variability of wind speed a feasibility analysis for the installation of a Wind Energy Conversion System at a particular site requires estimation of the long-term mean wind turbine energy output. A method is proposed in this paper which, based on probabilistic Bayesian networks (BNs), enables estimation of the long-term mean wind speed histogram for a site where few measurements of the wind resource are available. For this purpose, the proposed method allows the use of multiple reference stations with a long history of wind speed and wind direction measurements. That is to say, the model that is proposed in this paper is able to involve and make use of regional information about the wind resource. With the estimated long-term wind speed histogram and the power curve of a wind turbine it is possible to use the method of bins to determine the long-term mean energy output for that wind turbine. The intelligent system employed, the knowledgebase of which is a joint probability function of all the model variables, uses efficient calculation techniques for conditional probabilities to perform the reasoning. This enables automatic model learning and inference to be performed efficiently based on the available evidence. The proposed model is applied in this paper to wind speeds and wind directions recorded at four weather stations located in the Canary Islands (Spain). Ten years of mean hourly wind speed and direction data are available for these stations. One of the conclusions reached is that the BN with three reference stations gave fewer errors between the real and estimated long-term mean wind turbine energy output than when using two measure-correlate-predict algorithms which were evaluated and which use a linear regression between the candidate station and one reference station.

Rich Medium Composition Affects Escherichia coli Survival, Glycation, and Mutation Frequency during Long-Term Batch Culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Kram, Karin E; Finkel, Steven E

2015-07-01

Bacteria such as Escherichia coli are frequently grown to high density to produce biomolecules for study in the laboratory. To achieve this, cells can be incubated in extremely rich media that increase overall cell yield. In these various media, bacteria may have different metabolic profiles, leading to changes in the amounts of toxic metabolites produced. We have previously shown that stresses experienced during short-term growth can affect the survival of cells during the long-term stationary phase (LTSP). Here, we incubated cells in LB, 2× yeast extract-tryptone (YT), Terrific Broth, or Super Broth medium and monitored survival during the LTSP, as well as other reporters of genetic and physiological change. We observe differential cell yield and survival in all media studied. We propose that differences in long-term survival are the result of changes in the metabolism of components of the media that may lead to increased levels of protein and/or DNA damage. We also show that culture pH and levels of protein glycation, a covalent modification that causes protein damage, affect long-term survival. Further, we measured mutation frequency after overnight incubation and observed a correlation between high mutation frequencies at the end of the log phase and loss of viability after 4 days of LTSP incubation, indicating that mutation frequency is potentially predictive of long-term survival. Since glycation and mutation can be caused by oxidative stress, we measured expression of the oxyR oxidative stress regulator during log-phase growth and found that higher levels of oxyR expression during the log phase are consistent with high mutation frequency and lower cell density during the LTSP. Since these complex rich media are often used when producing large quantities of biomolecules in the laboratory, the observed increase in damage resulting in glycation or mutation may lead to production of a heterogeneous population of plasmids or proteins, which could affect the

Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauteclocque, Adrien de; Glachant, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

Long-term supply contracts often have ambiguous effects on the competitive structure, investment and consumer welfare in the long term. In the new market context, these effects are likely to be worsened and thus even harder to assess. Since liberalization and especially since the release of the Energy Sector Inquiry in early 2007, the portfolio of long-term supply contracts of the former incumbents have become a priority for review by the European Commission and the national competition authorities. It is widely believed that European Competition authorities take a dogmatic view on these contracts and systemically emphasize the risk of foreclosure over their positive effects on investment and operation. This paper depicts the methodology that has emerged in the recent line of cases and argues that this interpretation is largely misguided. It shows that a multiple-step approach is used to reduce regulation costs and balance anti-competitive effects with potential efficiency gains. However, if an economic approach is now clearly implemented, competition policy is constrained by the procedural aspect of the legal process and the remedies imposed remain open for discussion.

A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon

2014-01-01

China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO 2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Predictors of short-term and long-term memory of sensory and affective dimensions of pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Gedney, Jeffrey J; Logan, Henrietta; Baron, Robert S

2003-03-01

The purpose of this investigation was to establish predictors of the dimensions of pain intensity and pain unpleasantness recalled at 1 week and 18 months after an invasive therapeutic procedure, root canal therapy (RCT). Pretreatment measures of mood state and RCT-related expectations of sensory and affective dimensions of pain by using a visual analog scale (VAS) format were obtained. VAS measures of experienced pain intensity and unpleasantness were obtained immediately after treatment. Patients[apos ] memory of their RCT-related pain intensity and unpleasantness was assessed by phone call. Regression analysis showed that after controlling for age, experienced pain intensity predicts 1-week memory of pain intensity (adjusted R(2) [equals].34, P [lt ].01), whereas patients[apos ] pretreatment affective state predicts the memory of pain intensity at 18 months (adjusted R(2) [equals].24, P [lt ].01) and the memory of pain unpleasantness at 1 week (adjusted R(2) [equals].40, P [lt ].01) and 18 months (adjusted R(2) [equals].62, P [lt ].01). These findings point to the contribution of preexisting affective state to the sensory and affective dimensions of pain recollection and illustrate the importance of anxiety management for minimizing patient[apos ]s long-term recollection of the aversiveness of outpatient medical and dental procedures. 2003 by the American Pain Society

Some aspects of hydrogen as a long-term energy carrier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quakernaat, J.; De Jong, K.P.; Van Wechem, H.M.H.; Okken, P.A.; Lako, P.; Ybema, J.R.

1994-11-01

Hydrogen as a secondary energy carrier received extensive and worldwide attention some ten to fifteen years ago. The developments in the energy market since then have reduced the interest in hydrogen. However, the increased concern for the environment and new technical options have brought hydrogen to the centre of attention once again. These considerations led to the organization of the National Hydrogen Seminar, held on 19 November 1993 at ECN, Petten, Netherlands. Eight experts in the field of hydrogen illustrated the possibilities and prospects of the production, storage and use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. In this report three of these contributions are presented, for which separate abstracts have been prepared. The first paper is on hydrogen in a global long-term perspective, in the second paper carbon is considered as a hydrogen carrier or as a disappearing skeleton, and in the third paper attention is paid to the cost effective integration of hydrogen in energy systems with CO 2 constraints

Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

2014-07-01

The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families.

Contribution to a proposition for a long term development of nuclear energy: the TASSE concept (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berthou, V.

2000-01-01

Nuclear industry creates waste which are in the middle of the discussion concerning the Nuclear Energy future. At this time, important decisions for the Energy production must be taken, so numerous researches are conducted within the framework of the Bataille law. The goal of these studies is to find a range of solutions concerning the waste management. An innovative system, called TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production), is studied in this thesis. This reactor is included in a long term strategy, and is destined for the renewal of the reactor park. In the first part of this work, the main characteristics of TASSE have been defined. They are commensurate with some specific requirements such as: to insure a large time to the Nuclear Energy, to reduce the waste production in an important way, to eliminate waste already stocked in the present park, to insure the non proliferation, and to be economically competitive. Neutronics studies of TASSE have been done. A calculation procedure has been developed to reach the system equilibrium state. Several types of molten salts as well as a pebble-bed fuel have been studied. Thus, an optimal fuel has been brought out in regard to some parameters such as the burn up level, the spectrum, the waste toxicity, the cycle type. Eventually, various TASSE core layout have been envisaged. (author)

Advice on a long-term strategy on energy and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-06-01

A study was conducted to examine how climate change would affect Canada's economy and environment, with a focus on what a low carbon future might look like for Canada over the next 45 years. Two questions formed the basis of this research that examined how Canada can protect and enhance its national interest with regard to energy and climate change issues between now and the mid-twenty first century and what Canada currently needs to do in order to achieve this. A scenario was developed as part of this study in order to demonstrate one way in which Canada can achieve a significant reduction in energy related GHG emissions by 2050. For illustrative purposes, it was necessary to have a quantifiable definition of what a significant reduction would look like, and therefore, it was decided that a long-term domestic reduction of energy-related GHG emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 would be used as it is roughly consistent with similar targets adopted or being considered by other OECD countries. The scope of this analysis covered energy-related GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that result from the production and consumption of fossil fuels. The paper provided a summary of key findings from the study and discussed Canada's unique environmental challenges. Study characteristics, scope of the analysis and assumptions were also identified. A 60 per cent GHG reduction wedge diagram was provided to illustrate the scenario under consideration. Strategic priorities were also presented identifying where transformations will need to occur. These priorities include energy efficiency improvements, carbon capture and sequestration in the oil and gas sector, and electricity generation. The paper also provided several conclusions and next steps. One of the principal conclusions was that there can be a domestic solution to making significant GHG reductions by mid-century, but significant reductions can be achieved only if energy is used more efficiently and

Neutron balance as indicator of long-term resource availability in growing nuclear energy system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blandinskiy, Victor [National Research Centre ' ' Kurchatov Institute' ' , Moscow (Russian Federation)

2017-09-15

The article describes neutron balance in nuclear energy system as necessary but not sufficient indicator of long-term sustainability. Three models are introduced to evaluate neutron balance based on nuclide chain evolution and reaction rates comparison. The indicator introduced is used to compare several nuclear energy systems consisting of thermal, fast and molten salt reactors.

Planning India's long-term energy shipment infrastructures for electricity and coal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowen, Brian H.; Canchi, Devendra; Lalit, Vishal Agarwal; Preckel, Paul V.; Sparrow, F.T.; Irwin, Marty W.

2010-01-01

The Purdue Long-Term Electricity Trading and Capacity Expansion Planning Model simultaneously optimizes both transmission and generation capacity expansions. Most commercial electricity system planning software is limited to only transmission planning. An application of the model to India's national power grid, for 2008-2028, indicates substantial transmission expansion is the cost-effective means of meeting the needs of the nation's growing economy. An electricity demand growth rate of 4% over the 20-year planning horizon requires more than a 50% increase in the Government's forecasted transmission capacity expansion, and 8% demand growth requires more than a six-fold increase in the planned transmission capacity expansion. The model minimizes the long-term expansion costs (operational and capital) for the nation's five existing regional power grids and suggests the need for large increases in load-carrying capability between them. Changes in coal policy affect both the location of new thermal power plants and the optimal pattern inter-regional transmission expansions.

Physical activity enhances long-term quality of life in older adults: efficacy, esteem, and affective influences.

Science.gov (United States)

Elavsky, Steriani; McAuley, Edward; Motl, Robert W; Konopack, James F; Marquez, David X; Hu, Liang; Jerome, Gerald J; Diener, Ed

2005-10-01

Physical activity has been effective in enhancing quality of life (QOL) of older adults over relatively short periods of time. However, little is known about the long-term effects of physical activity and even less about the possible mediators of this relationship. We examined the mediating effects of psychological variables on the relationship between physical activity and global QOL (satisfaction with life) in older adults over a 4-year period. Participants (N = 174, M age = 66.7 years) completed a battery of psychosocial measures at 1 and 5 years following enrollment in a 6-month randomized controlled exercise trial. Panel analysis conducted within a covariance modeling framework indicated that physical activity was related to self-efficacy, physical self-esteem, and positive affect at 1 year, and in turn, greater levels of self-efficacy and positive affect were associated with higher levels of QOL. Analyses indicated that changes in physical activity over the 4-year period were related to increases in physical self-esteem and positive affect, but only positive affect directly influenced improvements in QOL. The findings lend support to the position that physical activity effects on QOL are in part mediated by intermediate psychological outcomes and that physical activity can have long-term effects on well-being.

Long-term exposure to arsenic affects head kidney and impairs humoral immune responses of Clarias batrachus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghosh, Debabrata [Immunobiology Laboratory, School of Life Sciences, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan 731235 (India); Datta, Soma [Immunobiology Laboratory, School of Life Sciences, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan 731235 (India); Bhattacharya, Shelley [Environmental Toxicology Laboratory, School of Life Sciences, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan 731235 (India); Mazumder, Shibnath [Immunobiology Laboratory, School of Life Sciences, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan 731235 (India)]. E-mail: shibnath1@yahoo.co.in

2007-02-15

The present study was aimed at determining the effects of long-term arsenic exposure on the head kidney (HK) and ensuing humoral immune responses in Clarias batrachus L. Long-term exposure (150 days) to non-lethal concentrations of arsenic (42.42 {mu}M) resulted in significant time-dependent alterations in HK cell number eventually affecting the HK somatic index. Prolonged exposure to arsenic also suppressed HK-B cell proliferation and led to significant reduction in serum immunoglobulin levels and antigen-specific serum bacterial agglutinin titers. A decline in the number of antigen-specific plaque-forming cells with duration of arsenic exposure was noted in the HK. Enzyme linked immunosorbent assays further revealed that arsenic exposure inhibited the release of 'IL-4 like factors' from HK-T cells. Histological studies documented time-dependent changes in the structure and cellular composition of HK characterized by extensive lymphocytopenia, decrease in melano-macrophage population and hemosiderin accumulation. From exposure-challenge studies with Aeromonas hydrophila it was evident that pathogens could efficiently disseminate and colonize distant host tissues in the exposed fish. Moreover, the ability to decrease the pathogen load was also significantly reduced in the arsenic-exposed fish. Thus long-term exposure to non-lethal concentrations of arsenic affects HK and interferes with the humoral immune system of C. batrachus rendering them immunocompromised and susceptible to pathogenic challenge.

Long-term exposure to arsenic affects head kidney and impairs humoral immune responses of Clarias batrachus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Debabrata; Datta, Soma; Bhattacharya, Shelley; Mazumder, Shibnath

2007-01-01

The present study was aimed at determining the effects of long-term arsenic exposure on the head kidney (HK) and ensuing humoral immune responses in Clarias batrachus L. Long-term exposure (150 days) to non-lethal concentrations of arsenic (42.42 μM) resulted in significant time-dependent alterations in HK cell number eventually affecting the HK somatic index. Prolonged exposure to arsenic also suppressed HK-B cell proliferation and led to significant reduction in serum immunoglobulin levels and antigen-specific serum bacterial agglutinin titers. A decline in the number of antigen-specific plaque-forming cells with duration of arsenic exposure was noted in the HK. Enzyme linked immunosorbent assays further revealed that arsenic exposure inhibited the release of 'IL-4 like factors' from HK-T cells. Histological studies documented time-dependent changes in the structure and cellular composition of HK characterized by extensive lymphocytopenia, decrease in melano-macrophage population and hemosiderin accumulation. From exposure-challenge studies with Aeromonas hydrophila it was evident that pathogens could efficiently disseminate and colonize distant host tissues in the exposed fish. Moreover, the ability to decrease the pathogen load was also significantly reduced in the arsenic-exposed fish. Thus long-term exposure to non-lethal concentrations of arsenic affects HK and interferes with the humoral immune system of C. batrachus rendering them immunocompromised and susceptible to pathogenic challenge

Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, S. J.; Haberl, H.

2012-04-01

Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales Simron Jit Singh and Helmut Haberl Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Austria Understanding trajectories of change in coupled socio-ecological (or human-environment) systems requires monitoring and analysis at several spatial and temporal scales. Long-term ecosystem research (LTER) is a strand of research coupled with observation systems and infrastructures (LTER sites) aimed at understanding how global change affects ecosystems around the world. In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that sustainability concerns require extending this approach to long-term socio-ecological research, i.e. a more integrated perspective that focuses on interaction processes between society and ecosystems over longer time periods. Thus, Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research, abbreviated LTSER, aims at observing, analyzing, understanding and modelling of changes in coupled socio-ecological systems over long periods of time. Indeed, the magnitude of the problems we now face is an outcome of a much longer process, accelerated by industrialisation since the nineteenth century. The paper will provide an overview of a book (in press) on LTSER with particular emphasis on 'socio-ecological transitions' in terms of material, energy and land use dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.

Delayed Dopamine Signaling of Energy Level Builds Appetitive Long-Term Memory in Drosophila

OpenAIRE

Pierre-Yves Musso; Paul Tchenio; Thomas Preat

2015-01-01

Sensory cues relevant to a food source, such as odors, can be associated with post-ingestion signals related either to food energetic value or toxicity. Despite numerous behavioral studies, a global understanding of the mechanisms underlying these long delay associations remains out of reach. Here, we demonstrate in Drosophila that the long-term association between an odor and a nutritious sugar depends on delayed post-ingestion signaling of energy level. We show at the neural circuit level t...

Oil use and oil dependency: Long-term issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serot, D.E.; Belzer, D.B.; Guthrie, S.A.; Roop, J.M.

1989-06-01

The continued dependence of the United States on imported oil is a matter of increasing concern. Under the direction of the Department of Energy's Office of Policy Integration, Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study which was to examine long-term issues related to oil dependence. Major issues addressed are (1) energy efficiency and the role of new technologies, (2) fuel switching, and (3) regional factors affecting fuel use. The study examines all major end-use sectors in the economy, covering the industrial, commercial, residential, transportation, and electric utility sectors. The potential impacts of efficiency improvements in oil- using equipment are assessed through the year 2000. 107 refs., 8 figs., 9 tabs

Long-term sampling of CO2 from waste-to-energy plants: 14C determination methodology, data variation and uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuglsang, Karsten; Pedersen, Niels Hald; Larsen, Anna Warberg

2014-01-01

A dedicated sampling and measurement method was developed for long-term measurements of biogenic and fossil-derived CO2 from thermal waste-to-energy processes. Based on long-term sampling of CO2 and 14C determination, plant-specific emission factors can be determined more accurately, and the annual...... emission of fossil CO2 from waste-to-energy plants can be monitored according to carbon trading schemes and renewable energy certificates. Weekly and monthly measurements were performed at five Danish waste incinerators. Significant variations between fractions of biogenic CO2 emitted were observed...... was ± 4.0 pmC (95 % confidence interval) at 62 pmC. The long-term sampling method was found to be useful for waste incinerators for determination of annual fossil and biogenic CO2 emissions with relatively low uncertainty....

Facilitating Long-Term Recovery from Natural Disasters: Psychosocial Programming for Tsunami-Affected Schools of Sri Lanka

Science.gov (United States)

Nastasi, Bonnie K.; Jayasena, Asoka; Summerville, Meredith; Borja, Amanda P.

2011-01-01

This article reports the findings of a school-based intervention project conducted in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka 15 to 18 months after the December 2004 Tsunami. The work responds to the need for culturally relevant programming to address long-term psychosocial recovery of children and adolescents affected by large scale disasters. Program…

Analysis of high-frequency energy in long-term average spectra of singing, speech, and voiceless fricatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Monson, Brian B; Lotto, Andrew J; Story, Brad H

2012-09-01

The human singing and speech spectrum includes energy above 5 kHz. To begin an in-depth exploration of this high-frequency energy (HFE), a database of anechoic high-fidelity recordings of singers and talkers was created and analyzed. Third-octave band analysis from the long-term average spectra showed that production level (soft vs normal vs loud), production mode (singing vs speech), and phoneme (for voiceless fricatives) all significantly affected HFE characteristics. Specifically, increased production level caused an increase in absolute HFE level, but a decrease in relative HFE level. Singing exhibited higher levels of HFE than speech in the soft and normal conditions, but not in the loud condition. Third-octave band levels distinguished phoneme class of voiceless fricatives. Female HFE levels were significantly greater than male levels only above 11 kHz. This information is pertinent to various areas of acoustics, including vocal tract modeling, voice synthesis, augmentative hearing technology (hearing aids and cochlear implants), and training/therapy for singing and speech.

Regional Analysis of Long-term Local and Synoptic Effects on Wind Velocity and Energy Patterns in Complex Terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Belu, R.; Koracin, D. R.

2017-12-01

Investments in renewable energy are justified in both environmental and economic terms. Climate change risks call for mitigation strategies aimed to reduce pollutant emissions, while the energy supply is facing high uncertainty by the current or future global economic and political contexts. Wind energy is playing a strategic role in the efforts of any country for sustainable development and energy supply security. Wind energy is a weather and climate-dependent resource, having a natural spatio-temporal variability at time scales ranging from fraction of seconds to seasons and years, while at spatial scales is strongly affected by the topography and vegetation. Main objective of the study is to investigate spatio-temporal characteristics of the wind velocity in the Southwest U.S., that are relevant to wind energy assessment, analysis, development, operation, and grid integration, by using long-term multiple meteorological tower observations. Wind velocity data and other meteorological parameters from five towers, located near Tonopah, Nevada, operated between 2003 to 2008, and from three towers are located in Carson Valley, Nevada, operated between 2006 and 2014 were used in this study. Multi-annual wind speed data collected did not show significant increase trends with increasing elevation; the differences are mainly governed by the topographic complexity, including local atmospheric circulations. Auto- and cross-correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multi-day periodicity with increasing lag periods. Besides pronounced diurnal periodicity at all locations, detrended fluctuation analysis also showed significant seasonal and annual periodicities, and long-memory persistence with similar characteristics. In spite of significant differences in mean wind speeds among the towers, due to location specifics, the relatively high auto- and cross-correlation coefficients among the towers indicate

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

2011-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Change of nuclear administrative system and long-term program for nuclear energy in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, S. W.; Yang, M. H.; Jeong, H. S.

2001-01-01

Japanese new governmental adminstrative system was restructured and became in operation from January 1, 2001 including newly establishment of the Ministry of Cabinet. Accordingly, Japanese nuclear administrative system were also changed significantly, in order to reflect the changing policy environment and response to them more efficiently in the use and development of nuclear energy. Atomic Energy Commission, Nuclear Safety Commission administrated by Science and Technology Agency in the past, were moved to the Ministry of Cabinet, and Integrated Science and Technology Council was also newly established under the Ministry of Cabinet. And Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry(METI) is in charge of nuclear energy policy and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) is in charge of nuclear academic science consequently. At the same time, the revision work of 'Long-term Program for Research, Development and Utilization of Nuclear of Japan' established in 1994, has been carried out from 1999 in order to set up the long term based national nuclear policy towards the 21st century, and finally the results were open to the public in November 2000. Major changes of nuclear policy of Japan the will be good references in the establishing future national nuclear policy for the use and development of nuclear energy

Long Term Cost Efficiency through Green Management Control Systems

OpenAIRE

Vukania Adda, Nancy; Qin, Xiaochen

2012-01-01

Title: Long term cost efficiency through green management control systems.Authors: Nancy Vukania &Xiaochen QinSupervisor: Åsa Karin-EngstrandBackground: The worldwide financial crisis of 2008 has reconfigured the economic turf leading to a more uncertain and turbulent playing field – a greater challenge for business strategy and the quest for optimization- The oil price hike of 2008 (Furlong 2010)1 caused its rippling effect to affect various cost categories including energy, labor and lo...

Assessment of Long-Term Research Needs for Shale-Oil Recovery (FERWG-III)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Penner, S.S.

1981-03-01

The Fossil Energy Research Working Group (FERWG), at the request of E. Frieman (Director, Office of Energy Research) and G. Fumich, Jr. (Assistant Secretary for Fossil Fuels), has reviewed and evaluated the U.S. programs on shale-oil recovery. These studies were performed in order to provide an independent assessment of critical research areas that affect the long-term prospects for shale-oil availability. This report summarizes the findings and research recommendations of FERWG.

Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ardakani, F.J.; Ardehali, M.M.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined. • Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed. • Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%. - Abstract: Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030

Long-term multipactor discharge in multicarrier systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gimeno, B.; Boria, V. E.; Armendariz, J.

2007-01-01

A new mechanism of long-term multipactor in multicarrier systems is studied employing both analytical and numerical methods. In particular, the investigation is focused on the impact that a realistic secondary emission yield at low energies produces on the development of long term multipactor. A novel analytical model for this interperiod charge accumulation is presented using the traditional multipactor theory for parallel plates, and approximating the multicarrier signal as a single-carrier signal modulated by a pulsed signal envelope. The analytical predictions are verified by numerical simulations for a typical rectangular waveguide. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the susceptibility of the system to develop a long-term multipactor discharge increases with higher values of low-energy secondary emission yield

Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-01

The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

Workshop on IAEA Tools for Nuclear Energy System Assessment for Long-Term Planning and Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The purpose of the workshop is to present to Member States tools and methods that are available from the IAEA in support of long-term energy planning and nuclear energy system assessments, both focusing on the sustainable development of nuclear energy. This includes tools devoted to energy system planning, indicators for sustainable energy development, the INPRO methodology for Nuclear Energy System Assessment (NESA) and tools for analysing nuclear fuel cycle material balance. The workshop also intends to obtain feedback from Member States on applying the tools, share experiences and lessons learned, and identify needs for IAEA support

Perspective of long term demand and supply of energy and general inspection of energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

Since the oil crisis, Japanese energy policy was promoted to get rid of the excess dependence on petroleum and to attain energy security, but energy situation largely changed during the past ten years, and it has become necessary to make general inspection on the long term demand and supply of energy and the energy policy. After the second oil crisis, the worldwide demand of petroleum decreased drastically due to the rapid price rise, and the base price of crude oil was lowered for the first time. It is necessary to positively endeavor to reduce energy cost with new idea. The points of the general inspection are the correspondence of the energy policy to the large structural change of energy, the most desirable system for attaining the optimum structure of energy demand and supply and the utilization of market mechanism as far as possible. This report is the results of discussion held eight times since April, 1983. The change of energy situation in Japan and abroad and the perspective, the new problems in energy countermeasures and the trend of response, the preferential and effective promotion of general energy countermeasures and so on are reported. This report shows the fundamental direction of energy countermeasures hereafter, and the concrete and special examination must be made on many remaining problems. (Kako, I.)

Long-Term Stewardship Program Science and Technology Requirements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joan McDonald

2002-09-01

Many of the United States’ hazardous and radioactively contaminated waste sites will not be sufficiently remediated to allow unrestricted land use because funding and technology limitations preclude cleanup to pristine conditions. This means that after cleanup is completed, the Department of Energy will have long-term stewardship responsibilities to monitor and safeguard more than 100 sites that still contain residual contamination. Long-term stewardship encompasses all physical and institutional controls, institutions, information, and other mechanisms required to protect human health and the environment from the hazards remaining. The Department of Energy Long-Term Stewardship National Program is in the early stages of development, so considerable planning is still required to identify all the specific roles and responsibilities, policies, and activities needed over the next few years to support the program’s mission. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory was tasked with leading the development of Science and Technology within the Long-Term Stewardship National Program. As part of that role, a task was undertaken to identify the existing science and technology related requirements, identify gaps and conflicts that exist, and make recommendations to the Department of Energy for future requirements related to science and technology requirements for long-term stewardship. This work is summarized in this document.

Structural changes in socio-affective networks: Multi-modal MRI findings in long-term meditation practitioners.

Science.gov (United States)

Engen, Haakon G; Bernhardt, Boris C; Skottnik, Leon; Ricard, Matthieu; Singer, Tania

2017-08-31

Our goal was to assess the effects of long-term mental training in socio-affective skills on structural brain networks. We studied a group of long-term meditation practitioners (LTMs) who have focused on cultivating socio-affective skills using loving-kindness and compassion meditation for an average of 40k h, comparing these to meditation-naïve controls. To maximize homogeneity of prior practice, LTMs were included only if they had undergone extensive full-time meditation retreats in the same center. MRI-based cortical thickness analysis revealed increased thickness in the LTM cohort relative to meditation-native controls in fronto-insular cortices. To identify functional networks relevant for the generation of socio-affective states, structural imaging analysis were complemented by fMRI analysis in LTMs, showing amplitude increases during a loving-kindness meditation session relative to non-meditative rest in multiple prefrontal and insular regions bilaterally. Importantly, functional findings partially overlapped with regions of cortical thickness increases in the left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, suggesting that these regions may play a central role in the generation of emotional states relevant for the meditative practice. Our multi-modal MRI approach revealed structural changes in LTMs who have cultivated loving-kindness and compassion for a significant period of their life in functional networks activated by these practices. These preliminary cross-sectional findings motivate future longitudinal work studying brain plasticity following the regular practice of skills aiming at enhancing human altruism and prosocial motivation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prefrontocortical dopamine loss in rats delays long-term extinction of contextual conditioned fear, and reduces social interaction without affecting short-term social interaction memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez Espejo, Emilio

2003-03-01

Prefrontal dopamine loss delays extinction of cued fear conditioning responses, but its role in contextual fear conditioning has not been explored. Medial prefrontal lesions also enhance social interaction in rats, but the role of prefrontal dopamine loss on social interaction memory is not known. Besides, a role for subcortical accumbal dopamine on mnesic changes after prefrontal dopamine manipulation has been proposed but not explored. The objective was to study the involvement of dopaminergic neurotransmission in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and nucleus accumbens in two mnesic tasks: contextual fear conditioning and social interaction memory. For contextual fear conditioning, short- and long-term freezing responses after an electric shock were studied, as well as extinction retention. Regarding social interaction memory, the recognition of a juvenile, a very sensitive short-term memory test, was used. Dopamine loss was carried out by injection of 6-hydroxydopamine, and postmortem catecholamine levels were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Prefrontocortical dopamine loss (>76%) led to a reactive enhancement of accumbal dopamine content (ploss. In lesioned rats, long-term extinction of contextual fear conditioning was significantly delayed and extinction retention was impaired without changes in acquisition and short-term contextual fear conditioning and, on the other hand, acquisition and short-term social interaction memory were not affected, although time spent on social interaction was significantly reduced. Added dopamine loss in the nucleus accumbens (>76%) did not alter these behavioral changes. In summary, the results of the present study indicate that the dopaminergic network in the mPFC (but not in the nucleus accumbens) coordinates the normal long-term extinction of contextual fear conditioning responses without affecting their acquisition, and it is involved in time spent on social interaction, but not acquisition and short-term

Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be measured and valued?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansen, Jaap C.; Seebregts, Ad J.

2010-01-01

The paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the extent of long-term energy security and security externality valuation. It starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions of 'energy security' in medium to long-term time frames and reviews some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it. Special attention is paid to two of these approaches, which the authors helped to develop, i.e. diversity-based indices and the Supply/Demand Index. The paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic approaches that neglect: (i) the scope on the demand side for raising security and (ii) negative feedback mechanisms of socio-political impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting countries. The concept of energy services security is proposed with a demand-side focus. This enables application of an integrated approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead from various interrelated perspectives. Propositions are made on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil fuels, policies, and suggestions for further improvements of measures for energy services security.

Analysis of high-frequency energy in long-term average spectra of singing, speech, and voiceless fricatives

Science.gov (United States)

Monson, Brian B.; Lotto, Andrew J.; Story, Brad H.

2012-01-01

The human singing and speech spectrum includes energy above 5 kHz. To begin an in-depth exploration of this high-frequency energy (HFE), a database of anechoic high-fidelity recordings of singers and talkers was created and analyzed. Third-octave band analysis from the long-term average spectra showed that production level (soft vs normal vs loud), production mode (singing vs speech), and phoneme (for voiceless fricatives) all significantly affected HFE characteristics. Specifically, increased production level caused an increase in absolute HFE level, but a decrease in relative HFE level. Singing exhibited higher levels of HFE than speech in the soft and normal conditions, but not in the loud condition. Third-octave band levels distinguished phoneme class of voiceless fricatives. Female HFE levels were significantly greater than male levels only above 11 kHz. This information is pertinent to various areas of acoustics, including vocal tract modeling, voice synthesis, augmentative hearing technology (hearing aids and cochlear implants), and training/therapy for singing and speech. PMID:22978902

Evaluation of the long-term agreement on energy efficiency in the mushroom sector [in the Netherlands]; Evaluatie Meerjaren Afspraak energie in de Paddestoelensector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemmens, P.A.E. [et al.] [HAS KennisTransfer, Den Bosch (Netherlands)

2005-08-15

In 1998, the Long-Term Agreement on energy efficiency for the mushroom cultivation sector was signed by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and representatives of the mushroom cultivation sector. The main consideration were improvement of the sector's image, cost reductions, increasing awareness and preservation of a relatively beneficial energy rate. In the Long-Term Agreement, the target for 2005 was to realize an energy efficiency improvement of 20% compared to the year 1995 (reference year) and to strive for 5% sustainable energy deployment in 2005 [Dutch] In 1998 is de Meerjarenafspraak Energie voor de paddestoelensector ondertekend door het Ministerie van Economische Zaken en de vertegenwoordiging van de paddestoelensector met als belangrijkste overwegingen verbetering van het imago van de sector, kostenbeperking, bewustwording en behoud van een relatief voordelig energietarief. In de Meerjarenafspraak is als doel gesteld om in 2005 een verbetering van de energie-efficiency te realiseren van 20% ten opzichte van het jaar 1995 (basisjaar) en te streven naar 5% gebruik van duurzame energie in 2005.

Resource Assessment of Tidal Current Energy in Hangzhou Bay Based on Long Term Measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Feng; Dai, Chun-Ni; Xu, Xue-Feng; Wang, Chuan-Kun; Ye, Qin

2017-05-01

Compared with other marine renewable energy, tidal current energy benefits a lot in high energy density and good predictability. Based on the measured tidal current data in Hangzhou Bay from Nov 2012 to Oct 2012, this paper analysed temporal and spatial changes of tidal current energy in the site. It is the first time measured data of such long time been taken in tidal current energy analysis. Occurrence frequency and duration of the current of different speed are given out in the paper. According to the analysis results, monthly average power density changed a lot in different month, and installation orientation of tidal current turbine significantly affected energy acquisition. Finally, the annual average power density of tidal current energy with coefficient Cp in the site was calculated, and final output of a tidal current plant was also estimated.

The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fais, Birgit; Sabio, Nagore; Strachan, Neil

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A new industrial modelling approach in a whole energy systems model is developed. • The contribution of UK industry to long-term energy policy targets is analysed. • Emission reductions of up to 77% can be achieved in the UK industry until 2050. • The UK industry sector is essential for achieving the overall efficiency commitments. • UK industry can make a moderate contribution to the expansion of renewable energies. - Abstract: This paper evaluates the critical contribution of the industry sector to long-term decarbonisation, efficiency and renewable energy policy targets. Its methodological novelty is the incorporation of a process-oriented modelling approach based on a comprehensive technology database for the industry sector in a national energy system model for the UK (UKTM), allowing quantification of the role of both decarbonisation of upstream energy vectors and of mitigation options in the industrial sub-categories. This enhanced model is then applied in a comparative policy scenario analysis that explores various target dimensions on emission mitigation, renewable energy and energy efficiency at both a national and European level. The results show that ambitious emission cuts in the industry sector of up to 77% until 2050 compared to 2010 can be achieved. Moreover, with a reduction in industrial energy demand of up to 31% between 2010 and 2050, the sector is essential for achieving the overall efficiency commitments. The industry sector also makes a moderate contribution to the expansion of renewable energies mostly through the use of biomass for low-temperature heating services. However, additional sub-targets on renewable sources and energy efficiency need to be assessed critically, as they can significantly distort the cost-efficiency of the long-term mitigation pathway.

Energy Efficiency in Building as a Basic Prerequisite for a Long Term Energy Strategies Realization, Environmental Protection and Sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miscevic, Lj.

2006-01-01

Energy efficiency in buildings at the low-energy and 'passive house' standard levels is presently the basic prerequisite for considering and formulating long term strategies, which with the task of meeting energy needs and system maintenance respond to requests of environmental protection and improvements in the context of sustainable development. Orientation to sustainable development is integrated in the development strategies of Croatia. The application of renewable energy sources, in particular solar energy in passive and active systems in the architecture is permanently confirmed by conducting energy monitoring and growing number of domestic studies, projects and realizations. The long-time research project of the European Union Cost Efficient Passive Houses as European Standards (CEPHEUS) with scientific monitoring corroborated energy and economic efficiency of such architectural designs in Germany, France, Austria, and Switzerland. Thus, the 'passive house' is proposed as a standard of residential architecture, but also of the construction of other functional types of architecture in general. The accomplished energy efficiency and verified favorable profitability of investment developed new forms of incentives to low-energy and passive architecture and relevant changes in concepts of long term energy strategies in the European Union member states. In Austria the 1000th passive house was built, and the city of Frankfurt/M brought decision regarding financing building construction through the city budget at the 'passive house' level. The new Technical Regulation on energy savings and thermal protection in Croatia, which is effectively in force as of 1 July, is a long-awaited step towards energy efficiency. Although, according to this Regulation the tolerance in energy use for space heating goes, in worst case calculation, up to 89 kWh/m2 a year, any other more favorable calculation with obligation to calculate the share of solar radiation for buildings, opens

Energy stores are not altered by long-term partial sleep deprivation in Drosophila melanogaster.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susan T Harbison

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Recent human studies reveal a widespread association between short sleep and obesity. Two hypotheses, which are not mutually exclusive, might explain this association. First, genetic factors that reduce endogenous sleep times might also impact energy stores, an assertion that we confirmed in a previous study. Second, metabolism may be altered by chronic partial sleep deprivation. Here we address the second assertion by measuring the impact of long-term partial sleep deprivation on energy stores using Drosophila as a model. We subjected flies to long-term partial sleep deprivation via two different methods: a mechanical stimulus and a light stimulus. We then measured whole-body triglycerides and glycogen, two important sources of energy for the fly, and compared them to un-stimulated controls. We also measured changes in energy stores in response to a random circadian clock shift. Sex and line-dependent alterations in glycogen and/or triglyceride levels occurred in response to the circadian clock shift and in flies subjected to a single night of sleep deprivation using light. Thus, consistent with previous studies, our findings suggest that acute sleep loss and changes to the circadian clock can alter metabolism. Significant changes in energy stores were also observed when flies were subjected to chronic sleep loss via the mechanical stimulus, although not the light stimulus. Interestingly, mechanical stimulation resulted in the same change in energy stores even when it was not associated with sleep deprivation, suggesting that the changes are caused by stress rather than sleep loss. These findings emphasize the importance of taking stress into account when evaluating the relationship between sleep loss and metabolism.

Long-Term Outcome of Low-Energy Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy for Plantar Fasciitis: Comparative Analysis According to Ultrasonographic Findings

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jong-Wan; Yoon, Kyungjae; Chun, Kwang-Soo; Lee, Joon-Youn; Park, Hee-Jin; Lee, So-Yeon

2014-01-01

Objective To investigate the long-term effect of low-energy extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) for plantar fasciitis (PF) according to ultrasonography (US) findings. Methods Thirty feet of 25 patients with clinical diagnosis of PF were enrolled and divided into two groups (Apparent-US and Uncertain-US) according to US findings, such as plantar fascia thickening or hypoechogenicity. Inclusion criteria were symptom duration >6 months and a fair or poor grade in Roles-Maudsley score (RMS). ESWT (0.10 mJ/mm2, 600 shocks) was given once a week for 6 weeks. Numeric rating scale (NRS) and RMS were evaluated prior to each ESWT session, at short-term follow-up (one week after all ESWT sessions) and long-term follow-up telephone interview (mean 24 months after ESWT). Good and excellent grade in RMS were considered as treatment success. Results Repeated measure ANOVA demonstrated that NRS significantly decreased with time after ESWT up to the long-term follow-up (time effect, p<0.001) without group-time interaction (p=0.641), indicating that ESWT equally decreased pain in both groups. Overall success rate was 63.3% (short-term follow-up) and 80.0% (long-term follow-up). In comparative analysis between groups, success rate of Apparent-US and Uncertain-US at short-term follow-up was 61.9% and 66.7%, respectively, and 85.7% and 66.7%, respectively, at long-term follow-up. Conclusion If other causes of heel pain are ruled out through meticulous physical examination and ultrasonography, low-energy ESWT in PF seems to be beneficial regardless of US findings. In terms of success rate, however, long-term outcome of Apparent-US appears to be superior to Uncertain-US. PMID:25229032

Implicit short- and long-term memory direct our gaze in visual search.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruijne, Wouter; Meeter, Martijn

2016-04-01

Visual attention is strongly affected by the past: both by recent experience and by long-term regularities in the environment that are encoded in and retrieved from memory. In visual search, intertrial repetition of targets causes speeded response times (short-term priming). Similarly, targets that are presented more often than others may facilitate search, even long after it is no longer present (long-term priming). In this study, we investigate whether such short-term priming and long-term priming depend on dissociable mechanisms. By recording eye movements while participants searched for one of two conjunction targets, we explored at what stages of visual search different forms of priming manifest. We found both long- and short- term priming effects. Long-term priming persisted long after the bias was present, and was again found even in participants who were unaware of a color bias. Short- and long-term priming affected the same stage of the task; both biased eye movements towards targets with the primed color, already starting with the first eye movement. Neither form of priming affected the response phase of a trial, but response repetition did. The results strongly suggest that both long- and short-term memory can implicitly modulate feedforward visual processing.

Short-term versus long-term contracting for uranium enrichment services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rudy, G.P.

1990-01-01

The US Department of Energy (US DOE) is the world's largest and most experienced supplier of uranium enrichment services. Through the late 1970s and early 1980s, emerging market forces transformed what was once a monopoly into a highly competitive industry. In the early 1980's the DOE lost market share. But as we enter the 1990s, new market forces have emerged. The US DOE believes a responsible balance between long-term and short-term contracting will be the key to success and the key to assuring the long-term health and reliability of the nuclear fuel industry. The US DOE intends to be in this nuclear business for a long time and will continue to offer reliable and responsive services second to none

Prospective opportunities for using the innovative nuclear reactors in Armenian energy sector long-term programme development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gevorgyan, A.

2003-01-01

Full text: In the base of the long-term planning for the Armenian energy sector development there have been laid the principles of energy independence and energy security, and not only those of least-cost criteria. The concept of energy security for Armenia under the existing conditions can be formulated in the following way - the country should have guaranteed ability for the reliable energy supply for all requirements of society both under the sustainable development and in extreme conditions. Ensuring the energy security is the main task and responsibility of all the state institutions without exceptions. In order to ensure the country's energy security, it is necessary to guarantee its energy independence. It means that the country's energy sector should be minimum dependent on the imported fuels, that is, it should be achieved the maximum utilization of the domestic energy sources. Taking the above-mentioned principles as a basis, we have modeled the Armenian electric-energy sector long-term development taking into account the future needs to cover the electricity demand forecasted. Two options were considered: the energy sector development including the nuclear energy scenario, and the option without the nuclear way of electricity generation, called combined cycle scenario. Summarizing the experience of energy crisis, lasted in Armenia during 1992-1996, we can assert that, upon having 40% energy independence, the normal functioning of practically all the life-support systems of Armenia in wide range of emergency situations can be assured. And only restarting Unit 2 of the ANPP made it possible to stop that crisis evolution and enable the country to move toward the further economic development. Besides, the environmental aspects are also among the most important components of the energy security. The ecological factors were included into the study when modeling scenarios of long-term energy development. As it is known, while nuclear power plants do not produce

Long term impacts of nuclear energy: On which purpose do we try to evaluate them?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beutler, Didier

1998-01-01

The indicators and the time limits for evaluation of the long term impacts of nuclear energy depend on the purpose: assessing the total cost of electricity generation; comparing different nuclear strategies; responding to public acceptance concerns; elaborating and selecting the most sustainable energy systems. Indicators that can be used are: consumption of non renewable resources; concentrations in the environment; individual exposures; collective dose; potential radiotoxicity. For all of them predicted or conditional values can be applied

Using electrophysiology to demonstrate that cueing affects long-term memory storage over the short term.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxcey, Ashleigh M; Fukuda, Keisuke; Song, Won S; Woodman, Geoffrey F

2015-10-01

As researchers who study working memory, we often assume that participants keep a representation of an object in working memory when we present a cue that indicates that the object will be tested in a couple of seconds. This intuitively accounts for how well people can remember a cued object, relative to their memory for that same object presented without a cue. However, it is possible that this superior memory does not purely reflect storage of the cued object in working memory. We tested the hypothesis that cues presented during a stream of objects, followed by a short retention interval and immediate memory test, can change how information is handled by long-term memory. We tested this hypothesis by using a family of frontal event-related potentials believed to reflect long-term memory storage. We found that these frontal indices of long-term memory were sensitive to the task relevance of objects signaled by auditory cues, even when the objects repeated frequently, such that proactive interference was high. Our findings indicate the problematic nature of assuming process purity in the study of working memory, and demonstrate that frequent stimulus repetitions fail to isolate the role of working memory mechanisms.

Results of the long-term agreements on energy efficiency. Results 2011; Resultatenbrochure convenanten Meerjarenafspraken energie-efficientie 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-09-15

The Dutch long-term agreement on Energy Efficiency with various sectors of the industry, the food and beverages industry and the services sector is a covenant aimed at enhancing energy efficiency among medium-sized enterprises. Participants in the covenant include businesses, the Dutch government and the Competent Authority Environmental Protection Act. Participation of businesses means that they must make energy efficiency plans, take measures and deliver annual results for monitoring. In this report the results of 2011 are presented [Dutch] De Meerjarenafspraken Energie-Efficientie met verschillende sectoren uit de industrie, de voedings- en genotmiddelenindustrie en de dienstensector, is een convenant gericht op het bevorderen van de energie-efficientie bij middelgrote bedrijven. Deelnemers aan het convenant zijn de bedrijven, de Rijksoverheid en het Bevoegd Gezag Wet Milieubeheer. Voor bedrijven betekent deelname dat zij energiebesparingplannen maken, maatregelen nemen en dat zij jaarlijks de resultaten hiervan aanleveren voor de monitoring. In dit rapport worden de resultaten van 2011 gepresenteerd.

Nuclear energy; real problems of the long term development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knapp, V.

1996-01-01

Whilst general public accepts the operation of western designed nuclear power stations as safe, waste management and decommission still figure as open problems, although such views are not in agreement with technical and economic status of these operations. A concern with imagined problems can have the effect of neglecting the real ones. In considering the long term development of nuclear energy the real problems can be associated with the wide use of plutonium and multiplication of national reprocessing and enrichment installations. Nuclear proliferation safety could be retained and developed through establishment of international nuclear fuel centres. Their operation would be particularly beneficial for small or medium nuclear countries. Several arguments are given why it is not premature to initiate a study which would identify and analyze the problems of establishing an international nuclear fuel centre. Central Europe could be a region which could be served by one of such nuclear fuel centres. (author)

Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

2006-01-01

This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Fredrik N.G.; Karpestam, Peter

2013-01-01

We analyze the short-term and the long-term determinants of energy intensity, carbon intensity and scale effects for eight developed economies and two emerging economies from 1973 to 2007. Our results show that there is a difference between the short-term and the long-term results and that climate policy are more likely to affect emission over the long-term than over the short-term. Climate policies should therefore be aimed at a time horizon of at least 8 years and year-on-year changes in emissions contains little information about the trend path of emissions. In the long-run capital accumulation is the main driver of emissions. Productivity growth reduces the energy intensity while the real oil price reduces both the energy intensity and the carbon intensity. The real oil price effect suggests that a global carbon tax is an important policy tool to reduce emissions, but our results also suggest that a carbon tax is likely to be insufficient decouple emission from economic growth. Such a decoupling is likely to require a structural transformation of the economy. The key policy challenge is thus to build new economic structures where investments in green technologies are more profitable. - Highlights: • We model determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity. • Using band spectrum regressions, we separate between short and long run effects. • Different economic variables affect emission in the short and long run. • CO 2 reducing policies should have a long run horizon of (at least 8 years). • A low carbon society requires a structural transformation of the economy

The Tasse concept (thorium based accelerator driven system with simplified fuel cycle for long term energy production)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berthou, V.; Slessarev, I.; Salvatores, M.

2001-01-01

Within the framework of the nuclear waste management studies, the ''one-component''. concept has to be considered as an attractive option in the long-term perspective. This paper proposes a new system called TASSE (''Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production''.), destined to the current French park renewal. The main idea of the TASSE concept is to simplify both the front and the back end of the fuel cycle, and his major goals are to provide electricity with low waste production, and with an economical competitiveness. (author)

Long-term results after Ilizarov treatment for severe high-energy injuries of the elbow.

Science.gov (United States)

Fodor, Lucian; Ullmann, Yehuda; Soudry, Michael; Lerner, Alexander

2009-06-01

Clinical aspects, such as the long-term results after circular external fixation and functional rehabilitation after high-energy injuries of the elbow joint, have not received sufficient attention in the literature. Fourteen patients with high-energy elbow injuries were treated in our hospital over the last 15 years with a circular external fixation frame. The mechanism of injury was blast in eight patients, gunshot wounds in two, motor vehicle crash in two, and fall from height in two. Twelve patients had high-energy open periarticular fractures, nine had Gustillo-Anderson 3B fractures, and three had Gustillo-Anderson 3C fractures. Two patients suffered from closed high-energy periarticular elbow injuries. Seven patients had associated peripheral neurologic injuries and three had vascular injuries. Average Ilizarov fixation time was 20 weeks (range, 6-47 weeks). The follow-up period varied from 1.5 years to 11 years. The average arc of elbow flexion was 110.4 degrees and extension was 19.6 degrees. The average arc of forearm rotation was of 63.5 degrees for pronation (range, 5-90 degrees) and 63.2 degrees for supination (range, 5-90 degrees). The average Mayo Elbow Performance Index score was 84 points (range, 60-100) and the average Khalfayan functional score was 83.4 (range, 68.7-100). Long-term follow-up proved that the hinged Ilizarov/hybrid frame represents a useful instrument to provide stabilization of the elbow joint while facilitating early movements and physiotherapy. The main indication is patients who suffered from open high-energy contaminated fractures with extensive soft-tissue damage (e.g., blast, war injuries) and combined bone and ligaments injuries.

Evaluation of nuclear power development scenarios in romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margeanu, C.; Apostol, M.; Visan, I.; Prodea, I.

2015-01-01

The paper summarizes the results of RATEN ICN Pitesti experts' activities in the IAEA's Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. Romanian study proposes to evaluate and analyze development of the nuclear capacity and increasing of its share in national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The study focused on the modelling of national NES (Nuclear Energy System) development on short and medium-term (time horizon 2050), considering the existing NFC (Nuclear Fuel Cycle) infrastructure and legislation, provisions of strategic documents in force and including also the possibility of regional collaboration regarding U/fresh fuel supply and SF (Spent Fuel) storage, as services provided at international market prices. The energy system modelling was realized by using the IAEA's MESSAGE program. The study results offer a clear image and also the possible answer to several key questions regarding: potential of nuclear energy to participate with an important share in national energy mix, in conditions of cost competitiveness, safety and security of supply; impact on national energy mix portfolio of capacities and electricity production; impact on Uranium domestic resources; economic projection/investments needed for new nuclear capacities addition; fresh fuel requirements for nuclear capacities; SF annually discharged and transferred to interim wet storage for cooling; SF volume in interim dry storage, etc. (authors)

Long term radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavie, J.M.

1984-01-01

In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

Short-term power plant operation scheduling in thermal systems with long-term boundary conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolter, H.

1990-01-01

For the first time, the modeling of long-term quantitative conditions within the short-term planning of the application of power stations is made via their shadow prices. It corresponds to a decomposition of the quantitative conditions by means of the method of the Langrange relaxation. The shadow prices determined by the planning for energy application regarding long- term quantitative conditions pass into the short-term planning for power station application and subsidize or rather punish the application of limited amounts as for as they are not claimed for sufficiently or excessively. The clear advantage of this modeling is that the short-term planning of power station application can deviate from the envisioned energy application regarding the total optimum, because the shadow prices contain all information about the cost effect of the energy shifts in the residual total period, which become necessary due to the deviations in the short-term period to be planned in the current short-term period. (orig./DG) [de

Preliminary long-term stability criteria for compressed air energy storage caverns in salt domes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thoms, R.L.; Martinez, J.D.

1978-08-01

Air storage caverns, which are an essential and integral component of a CAES plant, should be designed and operated so as to perform satisfactorily over the intended life of the overall facility. It follows that the long-term ''stability'' of air storage caverns must be considered as a primary concern in projecting the satisfactory operation of CAES facilities. As used in the report, ''stability'' of a storage cavern implies the extent to which an acceptable amount of cavern storage volume can be utilized with routine maintenance for a specified time interval, e.g., 35 years. In this context, cavern stability is relative to both planned utilization and time interval of operation. The objective of the study was to review the existing literature and consult knowledgeable workers in the storage industry, and then report state-of-the-art findings relative to long-term stability of compressed air energy storage caverns in salt domes. Further, preliminary cavern stability criteria were to be presented in a form consistent with the amount of information available on cavern performance in salt domes. Another objective of the study was to outline a methodology for determining the long-term stability of site-specific CAES cavern systems in salt domes.

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

Long-term properties of bituminized waste products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snellman, M.; Valkiainen, M.

1985-10-01

This study is a survey of the factors of importance for the long term behaviour of bituminized ion exchange resins. Phenomena occurring in bituminized waste products affected by the treatment, storage and disposal are identified. Test methods have been developed for characterizing product properties, which are important for the long-term behaviour. The long-term properties of bituminized ion-exchange resins are studied in a repository environment with access of water equilibrated with concrete. In these circumstances the most important properties are related to the interactions of bituminized waste with the surrounding barriers. The most important phenomena are water uptake due to rehydration of the resins and subsequent swelling of the product

Long-term properties of bituminized waste products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snellman, M.; Valkiainen, M.

1985-10-01

This study is a survey of the factors of importance for long term behaviour of bituminized ion exchange resins. Phenomena occurring in bituminized waste products affected by the treatment, storage and disposal are identified. Test methods have been developed for characterizing product properties, which are important for the long-term behaviour. The long-term properties of bituminized ion-exchange resins are studied in a repository environment with access of water equilibrated with concrete. In these circumstances the most important properties are ralated to the interactions of bituminized waste with the surrounding barriers. The most important phenomena are water uptake due to rehydration of the resins and subsequent swelling of the product. (author)

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

2011-11-15

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Pre-operative stroke and neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in infective endocarditis patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Diab, Mahmoud; Guenther, Albrecht; Sponholz, Christoph; Lehmann, Thomas; Faerber, Gloria; Matz, Anna; Franz, Marcus; Witte, Otto W; Pletz, Mathias W; Doenst, Torsten

2016-10-01

Infective endocarditis (IE) is still associated with high morbidity and mortality. The impact of pre-operative stroke on mortality and long-term survival is controversial. In addition, data on the severity of neurological disability due to pre-operative stroke are scarce. We analysed the impact of pre-operative stroke and the severity of its related neurological disability on short- and long-term outcome. We retrospectively reviewed our data from patients operated for left-sided IE between 01/2007 and 04/2013. We performed univariate (Chi-Square and independent samples t test) and multivariate analyses. Among 308 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery for left-sided IE, pre-operative stroke was present in 87 (28.2 %) patients. Patients with pre-operative stroke had a higher pre-operative risk profile than patient without it: higher Charlson comorbidity index (8.1 ± 2.6 vs. 6.6 ± 3.3) and higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus infection (43 vs. 17 %) and septic shock (37 vs. 19 %). In-hospital mortality was equal but 5-year survival was significantly worse with pre-operative stroke (33.1 % vs. 45 %, p = 0.006). 5-year survival was worst in patients with severe neurological disability compared to mild disability (19.0 vs. 0.58 %, p = 0.002). However, neither pre-operative stroke nor the degree of neurological disability appeared as an independent risk factor for short or long-term mortality by multivariate analysis. Pre-operative stroke and the severity of neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. It appears that patients with pre-operative stroke present with a generally higher risk profile. This information may substantially affect decision-making.

Projection of primary energy in electricity generation with evaluation of demand and supply of energy in the medium-term horizon (2020), long-term (2035) and very long term (2060); Projecao das energias primarias na geracao de eletricidade com avaliacao da demanda e oferta de energia, em horizonte de medio prazo (2020), longo prazo (2035) e muito longo prazo (2060)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mafra, Olga Y.; Alvim, Carlos Feu; Eidelman, Frida [Brasil e Economia (Brazil); Guimaraes, Leonam dos Santos [Eletrobras Eletronuclear, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2013-01-15

The Global Energy demand and the participation of electricity in scenarios of medium (2020), long (2035) and very long (2060) terms are estimated. It is also evaluated the share of different primary energies in electricity generation and their availability in the country. Three economic scenarios were considered and different hypothesis regarding the participation of nuclear energy were analyzed. (author)

A multilevel analysis of long-term psychological distress among Belarusians affected by the Chernobyl disaster.

Science.gov (United States)

Beehler, G P; Baker, J A; Falkner, K; Chegerova, T; Pryshchepava, A; Chegerov, V; Zevon, M; Bromet, E; Havenaar, J; Valdismarsdottir, H; Moysich, K B

2008-11-01

Radiation contamination and sociopolitical instability following the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster have had a profound impact on Belarus. To investigate the factors that impact long-term mental health outcomes of this population almost 20 years after the disaster. Cross-sectional study. In-person interviews were conducted with 381 men and women from two geographic areas of differing radiation contamination within Belarus. Participants completed surveys of demographics, psychosocial factors and psychological distress. Individual-level characteristics were combined with household-level measures of radiation contamination exposure and family characteristics to create multilevel predictive models of psychological distress. Between-household effects accounted for 20% of variability in depression and anxiety scores, but only 8% of variability in somatization scores. Degree of chronic daily stressors showed a significant positive relationship with psychological distress, whereas mastery/controllability showed a significant inverse relationship with distress. At household level, perceived family problems, but not level of residential radiation contamination, was the best predictor of distress. Multilevel modelling indicates that long-term psychological distress among Belarusians affected by the Chernobyl disaster is better predicted by stress-moderating psychosocial factors present in one's daily life than by level of residential radiation contamination.

Assessment of nuclear energy cost competitiveness against alternative energy sources in Romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margeanu, C. A.

2016-01-01

The paper includes some of the results obtained by RATEN ICN Pitesti experts in the IAEA.s Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. The case study proposed to evaluate and analyze the nuclear capacity development and increasing of its share in the national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping collaboration options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The following technologies, considered as future competing technologies for electric energy generation in Romania, were selected: nuclear technology (represented by PHWR CANDU Units 3 and 4 - CANDU new, advanced HWR - Adv. HWR, and advanced PWR - Adv. PWR) and, as alternative energy sources, classical technology (represented by Coal-fired power plant using lignite fossil fuel, with carbon capture - Coal_new, and Gas-fired power plant operating on combined cycle, with carbon capture - Gas_new). The study included assessment of specific economic indicators, sensitivity analyses being performed on Levelised Unit Energy Cost (LUEC) variation due to different perturbations (e.g. discount rate, overnight costs, etc). Robustness indices (RI) of LUEC were also calculated by considering simultaneous variation of input parameters for the considered power plants. The economic analyses have been performed by using the IAEA.s NEST program. The study results confirmed that in Romania, under the national specific conditions defined, electricity produced by nuclear power plants is cost competitive against coal and gas fired power plants electricity. The highest impact of considered perturbations on LUEC has been observed for capital intensive technologies (nuclear technologies) comparatively with the classic power plants, especially for discount rate changes. (authors)

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

2007-01-01

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perwez, Usama; Sohail, Ahmed; Hassan, Syed Fahad; Zia, Usman

2015-01-01

The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply has assumed significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity issues. In this article, we provide an overview of structure of electric power sector of Pakistan and a summary of historical electricity demand & supply data, current status of divergent set of energy policies as a framework for development and application of a LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternate Planning) model of Pakistan's electric power sector. Pakistan's LEAP model is used to analyze the supply policy selections and demand assumptions for future power generation system on the basis of economics, technicality and implicit environmental implications. Three scenarios are enacted over the study period (2011–2030) which include BAU (Business-As-Usual), NC (New Coal) & GF (Green Future). The results of these scenarios are compared in terms of projected electricity demand & supply, net present cost analysis (discount rate at 4%, 7% and 10%) and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions, along with sensitivity analysis to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost. A concluding section illustrates the policy implications of model for futuristic power generation and environmental policies in Pakistan. - Highlights: • Pakistan-specific electricity demand model is presented. • None of the scenarios exceeded the price of 12 US Cents/kWh. • By 2030, fuel cost is the most dominant factor to influence electricity per unit cost. • By 2030, CO_2 emissions per unit electricity will increase significantly in coal scenario relative to others. • By 2030, the penetration of renewable energy and conservation policies can save 70.6 tWh electricity.

long term energy long term energy performan performan power pla

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

roviding an energy performance analysis of Egbin thermal power plan tive Rankine .... effects [8]. The Egbin Electric power business unit is a steam thermal plant that makes use of steam to drive its ..... cogeneration plant- a case study.” Part A: ...

Long-term follow-up of Norwegian horses affected with acquired equine polyneuropathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanche-Olsen, S; Kielland, C; Ihler, C F; Hultin Jäderlund, K

2017-09-01

Acquired equine polyneuropathy (AEP), a neurological disease clinically characterised by knuckling of metatarsophalangeal joints, has been described in numerous Nordic horses during the last 20 years. Although clinical recovery has been reported, large-scale data on long-term follow-up of survivors have been lacking. To describe long-term survival of AEP affected horses registered in Norway, with a focus on athletic performance and possible residual clinical signs connected to the disease. A retrospective cohort study. The study includes 143 horses recorded with AEP in Norway from 2000 to 2012, with the follow-up period continuing until 2015. Participating owners of survivors completed a standardised questionnaire, providing information on disease and convalescence, management, performance-level and possible residual clinical signs. To investigate the follow-up of survivors, we performed 2 multivariable linear regression models. The follow-up time of survivors was 1.0-14.5 years (median 5.3, interquartile range 2.5-7.2). Fifty-seven horses survived and all but 3 horses returned to previous or higher level of performance. However, possible disease-related residual clinical signs were reported in 14/57 horses. Forty-nine of the survivors were in athletic use at time of contact. The majority of survivors were categorised with low severity-grades at time of diagnosis and the initial grade was significantly associated with time to resumed training. Only 3 horses had experienced relapse/new attack during the follow-up period. Athletic performance was judged by owners, which renders a possible source of bias. Although AEP is a potential fatal disease, most survivors will recover and return to minimum previous level of athletic performance. Some horses display residual clinical signs, but often without negative effect on performance and relapse of disease is rare. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.

Long-Term Nuclear Knowledge Management (NKM) on Nuclear Production of Hydrogen - A Case Study of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yanagisawa, Kazuaki

2007-01-01

In Japan, so-called a formal nuclear policy; The Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy is built up by Japan Atomic Energy Commission at every 5-year, in which not only a conventional light water reactor (LWR) but also a fast breeder reactor (FBR), HTGR and a fusion reactor (FR) is referred as a prominent candidate of long-term (<100 years) nuclear energy source. The policy makers might have multi-purpose scenarios for a future of innovated nuclear energy systems through results of various discussions at their level. According to long-term nuclear knowledge management, the author made ex ante evaluation of HTGR known as the intellectual assets of JAERI 1, from the viewpoint of hypothetical benefits under conditions of substantial uncertainty. Nuclear knowledge management (NKM) is an integrated, systematic approach to identifying, managing and sharing an organization's nuclear knowledge, and enabling persons to create new nuclear knowledge collectively and thereby helping achieve the objectives. NKM identifies, optimizes, and actively manages intellectual assets either in the form of explicit knowledge held in intangible products or tacit knowledge possessed by individuals or communities in the nuclear fields. In the present study the authors wish not only to show the validity of long-term NKM as a key factor of HTGR but also to assess their hypothetical benefits through the year 2050 under conditions of substantial uncertainty. It should be stressed that those factors are important intellectual assets of JAERI developed to date. Additionally, in the Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy constructed up by the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, a LWR, a fast breeder reactor (FBR), a HTGR, and a fusion reactor (FR) are all defined as eligible and prominent candidates for long-term nuclear energy sources. In this sense, we estimate here a direct market creation of (1) hydrogen energy production and (2) electricity generation, by commercialized HTGR through the year 2050 with

Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-08-01

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1993-08-06

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

Gap filling strategies for long term energy flux data sets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.

2001-01-01

At present a network of over 100 field sites are measuring carbon dioxide, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere, on a nearly continuous basis. Gaps in the long term measurements of evaporation and sensible heat flux must be filled before these data can be used...... for hydrological and meteorological applications. We adapted methods of gap filling for NEE (net ecosystem exchange of carbon) to energy fluxes and applied them to data sets available from the EUROFLUX and AmeriFlux eddy covariance databases. The average data coverage for the sites selected was 69% and 75......% for latent heat (lambdaE) and sensible heat (H). The methods were based on mean diurnal variations (half-hourly binned means of fluxes based on previous and subsequent days, MDV) and look-up tables for fluxes during assorted meteorological conditions (LookUp), and the impact of different gap filling methods...

The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

2001-01-01

Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

Evaluation of long term leaching of borosilicate glasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanza, F.; Parnisari, E.

1978-01-01

For the evaluation of long term hazard of glass, data on long term glass leaching are needed. Moreover for long term leaching a model of homogeneous dissolution seems reasonable and ask for confirmation. Tests were performed at 30 0 , 80 0 , 100 0 , using an apparatus of the Soxhlet type, to 3.600 hours. Results were obtained as a weight loss and analysed following a relation with time composed by a parabolic and a linear part. Analysis of the surface layer using energy dispersion X ray spectrometry were performed. A critical analysis of the results and of the apparatus is presented

Compressed air system best practice programmes: What needs to change to secure long-term energy savings for New Zealand?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neale, James R.; Kamp, Peter J.J.

2009-01-01

The establishment of a compressed air system (CAS) best practice programme is a key component of one of the initial industrial energy efficiency programmes being driven by New Zealand government ministries and agencies. In a global context this is not a new initiative in that existing programmes have been functioning in Europe and USA, yet in each of these cases the impact ten years-on has been patchy with limited long-term improvements in overall energy efficiency. The New Zealand CAS best practice programme currently under development is sponsored by the Electricity Commission (EC) and the Energy Efficiency Conservation Authority (EECA). It takes a new approach in policy direction, with variations from those used in other international programmes. A significant level of electricity levy money is to be committed to this programme and it is timely to highlight its merits and potential weaknesses, and what is required to generate long-term energy savings beyond the levels achieved by more mature overseas programmes.

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

2002-01-01

This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

Deviations in energy sensing predict long-term weight change in overweight Native Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Basolo, Alessio; Votruba, Susanne B; Heinitz, Sascha; Krakoff, Jonathan; Piaggi, Paolo

2018-05-01

Energy expenditure (EE), as reflective of body energy demand, has been proposed to be the key driver of food intake, possibly influencing weight change in humans. Variation in this energy-sensing link (overeating relative to weight-maintaining energy requirements) may lead to weight gain over time. Sixty-one overweight otherwise healthy Native Americans (age: 34.0 ± 7.9 years, body fat: 39.7 ± 9.5%, 36 males) were admitted to our clinical research unit for measurements of body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and 24-h EE and respiratory quotient (RQ) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during energy balance and weight stability. Following this, ad libitum food intake was assessed for three days using computerized vending machines. Body weight change under unrestricted free-living conditions was assessed at an outpatient follow-up visit (median follow-up time = 1.7 years). Total ad libitum food intake (3-day average) was positively associated with 24-h EE (r = 0.44, p energy requirements can be assessed and predicts long-term weight gain, suggesting that variation in energy sensing may influence appetite by favoring overeating thus promoting obesity development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irsag, Bojan; Pukšec, Tomislav; Duić, Neven

2012-01-01

Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. -- Highlights: ► Future energy demand of Croatian touristm–catering trade sector has been modelled. ► Model is roughly divided into two basic modes (heating/cooling and all other consumption). ► Different factors influencing future energy demand were implemented into the model. ► Possibilities for energy efficiency improvements have been presented.

Does grafting coronary arteries with only moderate stenosis affect long-term mortality?

Science.gov (United States)

Sabik, Joseph F.; Olivares, Gabriel; Raza, Sajjad; Lytle, Bruce W.; Houghtaling, Penny L.; Blackstone, Eugene H.

2016-01-01

Objective Stenting coronary arteries with non–ischemia-producing moderate stenosis leads to worse outcomes than leaving them unstented. We sought to determine whether grafting coronary arteries with angiographically moderate stenosis is associated with worse long-term survival than leaving them ungrafted. Methods From 1972 to 2011, 55,567 patients underwent primary isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); 8531 had a single coronary artery with moderate (50%-69%) stenosis, bypassed in 6598 (77%) and not bypassed in 1933 (23%). These arteries were grafted with internal thoracic arteries (ITAs) in 1806 patients (27%) and with saphenous veins (SVs) in 4625 (70%). Mean follow-up for all-cause mortality was 13.0 ± 9.7 years. Results Survival was similar for patients with and without a graft to the moderately stenosed coronary artery (P = .3): 97%, 76%, 43%, and 18% at 1, 10, 20, and 30 years among patients receiving no graft; 97%, 74%, 41%, and 18% among those receiving an SV graft; and 98%, 82%, 51%, and 23% among those receiving an ITA graft. After adjusting for patient characteristics, SV grafting versus nongrafting of moderately stenosed coronary arteries was associated with similar long-term mortality (P = .2), whereas ITA grafting was associated with 22% lower long-term mortality (hazard ratio 0.78; 68% confidence interval 0.75–0.82; P<.0001). Conclusions Grafting coronary arteries with angiographically moderate stenosis is not harmful. Instead, ITA grafting of such coronary arteries is associated with lower long-term mortality. Thus, after placing the first ITA to the left anterior descending, the second ITA should be placed to the second most important coronary artery, even if it is moderately stenosed. PMID:26611750

Insulin signaling is acutely required for long-term memory in Drosophila.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, Daniel B; Androschuk, Alaura; Rosenfelt, Cory; Langer, Steven; Harding, Mark; Bolduc, Francois V

2015-01-01

Memory formation has been shown recently to be dependent on energy status in Drosophila. A well-established energy sensor is the insulin signaling (InS) pathway. Previous studies in various animal models including human have revealed the role of insulin levels in short-term memory but its role in long-term memory remains less clear. We therefore investigated genetically the spatial and temporal role of InS using the olfactory learning and long-term memory model in Drosophila. We found that InS is involved in both learning and memory. InS in the mushroom body is required for learning and long-term memory whereas long-term memory specifically is impaired after InS signaling disruption in the ellipsoid body, where it regulates the level of p70s6k, a downstream target of InS and a marker of protein synthesis. Finally, we show also that InS is acutely required for long-term memory formation in adult flies.

Valuation of long-term investments in energy assets under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abadie, L. M. [Bilbao Bizkaia Kutxa, Gran Via 30, 48009 Bilbao (Spain)

2009-07-01

This paper aims to contribute to the development of valuation models for long-term investments while keeping an eye on market prices. The adopted methodology is rooted on the existence of markets for futures and options on commodities related to energy investments. These markets are getting ever-increasingly liquid with ever-longer maturities while trading contracts. We discuss the advantages of this approach relative to other alternatives such as the Net Present Value (NPV) or the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), despite a limited increase in the complexity of the models involved. More specifically, using the valuation methods well-known to energy-finance academics, the paper shows how to: break down an investment into its constituent parts, apply to each of them the corresponding risk premium, value annuities on assets with a deterministic or stochastic behavior, and value the options that are available to its owner, in order to get an overall value of the investment project. It also includes an application to improvement in coal consumption, where futures markets are used to get a numerical estimate of the parameters that are required for valuation. The results are then compared with those from traditional methodologies. Conclusions for this type of investments under uncertainty are derived. (author)

Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis M. Abadie

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to contribute to the development of valuation models for long-term investments while keeping an eye on market prices. The adopted methodology is rooted on the existence of markets for futures and options on commodities related to energy investments. These markets are getting ever-increasingly liquid with ever-longer maturities while trading contracts. We discuss the advantages of this approach relative to other alternatives such as the Net Present Value (NPV or the Internal Rate of Return (IRR, despite a limited increase in the complexity of the models involved. More specifically, using the valuation methods well-known to energy-finance academics, the paper shows how to: break down an investment into its constituent parts, apply to each of them the corresponding risk premium, value annuities on assets with a deterministic or stochastic behavior, and value the options that are available to its owner, in order to get an overall value of the investment project. It also includes an application to improvement in coal consumption, where futures markets are used to get a numerical estimate of the parameters that are required for valuation. The results are then compared with those from traditional methodologies. Conclusions for this type of investments under uncertainty are derived.

Valuation of long-term investments in energy assets under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abadie, L. M.

2009-01-01

This paper aims to contribute to the development of valuation models for long-term investments while keeping an eye on market prices. The adopted methodology is rooted on the existence of markets for futures and options on commodities related to energy investments. These markets are getting ever-increasingly liquid with ever-longer maturities while trading contracts. We discuss the advantages of this approach relative to other alternatives such as the Net Present Value (NPV) or the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), despite a limited increase in the complexity of the models involved. More specifically, using the valuation methods well-known to energy-finance academics, the paper shows how to: break down an investment into its constituent parts, apply to each of them the corresponding risk premium, value annuities on assets with a deterministic or stochastic behavior, and value the options that are available to its owner, in order to get an overall value of the investment project. It also includes an application to improvement in coal consumption, where futures markets are used to get a numerical estimate of the parameters that are required for valuation. The results are then compared with those from traditional methodologies. Conclusions for this type of investments under uncertainty are derived. (author)

Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the short- and long-term consequences of opting out of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briem, G.; Halstrick, M.; Heilemann, U.; Hillebrand, B.; Kiy, M.; Neuhaus, R.; Knieper, O.; Schmidt, H.W.; Weiss, T.

1986-08-01

A reference scenario establishes the prospective development of the energy and overall economy under status-quo conditions, i.e. assuming especially the continued use of nuclear energy, while two scenarios (alternative I: 'immediate opting out' and alternative II: 'opting out in the long term') try to assess the consequences of a shutdown of nuclear energy for the economic development of the Federal Republic of Germany. Especially, the study deals with the effects on the power industry, the ecological consequences, and the overall economic effects both in the short and long run. In all three scenarios, the development of the home consumption of electric power is first of all determined by a structure model of the entire economy. The capacity required to meet that demand and its use are calculated with the aid of a power plant model; short- and long-term cost-minimization programmes making allowance especially for fuel and capital costs from the elements from which these quantities are derived. Fuel and capital costs operate as variables in the structure model to determine the sectoral and overall economic development. The report in addition investigates separately, in partial models, the effects on the chemical industry and the branches of industry processing iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals, all of which are greatly in demand of electric power. (orig./UA) [de

Implications of renewable energy technologies in the Bangladesh power sector. Long-term planning strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mondal, Alam Hossain

2010-10-04

Bangladesh is facing daunting energy challenges: Security concerns over growing fuel imports, limited domestic energy resources for power generation, and projected demands for electricity that will exceed domestic supply capabilities within a few years. By acknowledging the potential of renewable energy resources, the country could possibly meet its unprecedented energy demand, thus increasing electricity accessibility for all and enhancing energy security through their advancement. The integration of renewable energy technologies in the power sector through national energy planning would, therefore, be a step in the right direction, not only for sustainable development of the country but also as part of Bangladesh's responsibility toward the global common task of environmental protection. This study estimates the potential of renewable energy sources for power generation in Bangladesh from the viewpoint of different promising available technologies. Future long-term electricity demand in Bangladesh is projected based on three economic growth scenarios. The energy planning model LEAP is applied to forecast the energy requirements from 2005 to 2035. Different policy scenarios, e.g., accelerated renewable energy production, null coal import, CO2 emission reduction targets and carbon taxes in the power sector from 2005 to 2035 are explored. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL model. Prospects for the power sector development of the country are identified, which ensure energy security and mitigate environmental impacts. The technical potential of grid-connected solar photovoltaic and wind energy are estimated at 50174 MW and 4614 MW, respectively. The potential of energy from biomass and small hydro power plants is estimated at 566 MW and 125 MW, respectively. Total electricity consumption was 18 TWh in 2005 and is projected to increase about 7 times to 132 TWh by 2035 in the low GDP growth scenario. In the

Post-Kyoto policy implications on the energy system: A TIAM-FR long-term planning exercise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Selosse, Sandrine; Assoumou, Edi; Maizi, Nadia; Mazauric, Vincent

2010-09-15

The aim of this study is to discuss the long term analysis of post-Kyoto commitments, with the modelling tool ETSAP-TIAM-FR. Through the specification of CO2 mitigation targets scenarios covering the period 2000-2050, this analysis focuses on the effects of these carbon constraints on several indicators such as global and regional CO2 emissions, the cost of the climate policy, carbon marginal costs, the primary energy consumption and the energy mix. This paper compares global efforts of CO2 mitigation with the cost of carbon and finally discusses the development of CCS technologies.

Effects of long-term price increases for oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voehringer, F.; Mueller, A.; Boehringer, C.

2007-03-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the effects of higher oil prices in the long-term. Scenarios examined include those with high oil prices of 80 to 140 dollars per barrel and those with drastic shortages resulting from peak extraction in the years 2010 and 2020. Long-term economic balances form the basis of the report, short-term influences and psychological effects are not addressed. The possible dangers for the earth's climate caused by the substitution of oil by coal-based products are discussed, as well as the sequestration of carbon dioxide. Ethanol and the associated conflicts of land use are examined and the decreasing cost-effectiveness of co-generation power generation is looked at. Alternatives such as atomic power, hydropower, solar energy, geothermal energy, biogas and wind power are discussed. The effect of the changing energy scene on economic growth and welfare aspects in Switzerland are examined. The authors conclude that high oil prices have considerable impacts on the economy and are not a substitute for an internationally co-ordinated climate policy

Comparing long term energy scenarios; Scenari energetici di lungo termine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G. [Rome Univ. La Sapienza, Rome (Italy)

2001-02-01

Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems. [Italian] Viene presentato un confronto degli scenari energetici di lungo termine formulati dalle agenzie internazionali e dai maggiori analisti del settore con particolare riferimento alla evoluzione di specifici parametri quali sviluppo demografico, domanda e offerta di energia, risorse energetiche, sviluppo tecnologico, emissioni e relativi cambiamenti climatici. L'evoluzione e l'interdipendenza dei singoli aspetti vengono analizzate al fine di individuare la possibile evenienza di crisi o turbolenze dei mercati energetici indotte da carenza di risorse o da problemi ambientali.

Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gernaat, David E H J; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Van Vliet, Jasper; Sullivan, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J.

2014-01-01

Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the

The uranium industry: long term planning for short term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.

2000-01-01

Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. (authors)

Long-Term Intake of a High-Protein Diet Affects Body Phenotype, Metabolism, and Plasma Hormones in Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Vu, John P; Luong, Leon; Parsons, William F; Oh, Suwan; Sanford, Daniel; Gabalski, Arielle; Lighton, John Rb; Pisegna, Joseph R; Germano, Patrizia M

2017-12-01

Background: High-protein diets (HPDs) recently have been used to obtain body weight and fat mass loss and expand muscle mass. Several studies have documented that HPDs reduce appetite and food intake. Objective: Our goal was to determine the long-term effects of an HPD on body weight, energy intake and expenditure, and metabolic hormones. Methods: Male C57BL/6 mice (8 wk old) were fed either an HPD (60% of energy as protein) or a control diet (CD; 20% of energy as protein) for 12 wk. Body composition and food intakes were determined, and plasma hormone concentrations were measured in mice after being fed and after overnight feed deprivation at several time points. Results: HPD mice had significantly lower body weight (in means ± SEMs; 25.73 ± 1.49 compared with 32.5 ± 1.31 g; P = 0.003) and fat mass (9.55% ± 1.24% compared with 15.78% ± 2.07%; P = 0.05) during the first 6 wk compared with CD mice, and higher lean mass throughout the study starting at week 2 (85.45% ± 2.25% compared with 75.29% ± 1.90%; P = 0.0001). Energy intake, total energy expenditure, and respiratory quotient were significantly lower in HPD compared with CD mice as shown by cumulative energy intake and eating rate. Water vapor was significantly higher in HPD mice during both dark and light phases. In HPD mice, concentrations of leptin [feed-deprived: 41.31 ± 11.60 compared with 3041 ± 683 pg/mL ( P = 0.0004); postprandial: 112.5 ± 102.0 compared with 8273 ± 1415 pg/mL ( P < 0.0001)] and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) [feed-deprived: 5.664 ± 1.44 compared with 21.31 ± 1.26 pg/mL ( P = <0.0001); postprandial: 6.54 ± 2.13 compared with 50.62 ± 11.93 pg/mL ( P = 0.0037)] were significantly lower, whereas postprandial glucagon concentrations were higher than in CD-fed mice. Conclusions: In male mice, the 12-wk HPD resulted in short-term body weight and fat mass loss, but throughout the study preserved body lean mass and significantly reduced energy intake and expenditure as well as

Daily cognitive appraisals, daily affect, and long-term depressive symptoms: the role of self-esteem and self-concept clarity in the stress process.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee-Flynn, Sharon C; Pomaki, Georgia; Delongis, Anita; Biesanz, Jeremy C; Puterman, Eli

2011-02-01

The current study investigated how self-esteem and self-concept clarity are implicated in the stress process both in the short and long term. Initial and 2-year follow-up interviews were completed by 178 participants from stepfamily unions. In twice-daily structured diaries over 7 days, participants reported their main family stressor, cognitive appraisals (perceived stressor threat and stressor controllability), and negative affect. Results of multilevel modeling indicated that high self-esteem ameliorated the effect of daily negative cognitive appraisals on daily negative affect. Self-concept clarity also buffered the effect of low self-self-esteem on depressive symptoms 2 years later. Our findings point to the vulnerability of those having low self-esteem or low self-concept clarity in terms of both short- and long-term adaptation to stress. They indicate the need for the consideration of such individual differences in designing stress management interventions.

Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

2014-01-01

With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass). - Highlights: ► Building sector final energy demand in India will grow to over five times by century end. ► Space cooling and appliance services will grow substantially in the future. ► Energy service demands will be met predominantly by electricity and gas. ► Urban centers will face huge demand for floor space and building energy services. ► Carbon tax policy will have little effect on reducing building energy demands

Stochastic Modeling of Long-Term and Extreme Value Estimation of Wind and Sea Conditions for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Wave energy power plants are expected to become one of the major future contribution to the sustainable electricity production. Optimal design of wave energy power plants is associated with modeling of physical, statistical, measurement and model uncertainties. This paper presents stochastic models...... for the significant wave height, the mean zero-crossing wave period and the wind speed for long-term and extreme estimations. The long-term estimation focuses on annual statistical distributions, the inter-annual variation of distribution parameters and the statistical uncertainty due to limited amount of data...

Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Exploring the possibilities for setting up sustainable energy systems for the long term: two visions for the Dutch energy system in 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treffers, D.J.; Faaij, A.P.C.; Spakman, J.; Seebregts, A.

2005-01-01

In this paper, two long-term visions of the Dutch future energy system are composed, analysed and evaluated. Both visions were set up to meet the requirement to reduce the GHG emissions with 80% in 2050 in comparison to 1990. The two visions start from very different perspectives and contexts. Quantitative analysis shows that when economic growth and energy use follow a business as usual development, emissions of GreenHouse Gases (GHG) can increase up to 250% of 1990 levels. The two, rather opposing, visions show that it is feasible to combine (strong) economic growth with far going reduction of GHG emissions, provided a number of key options are developed and applied. These options were chosen and discussed during several meetings by stakeholders in a dialogue process, using feedback from scientists, and consist of improvements in energy efficiency in industry, CO 2 neutral feedstocks for transportation, renewable energy and highly insulated buildings in the built environment and improvements in the primary production of the agricultural sector. It is clear that drastic changes in many areas in society are required to obtain the desired GHG-emission levels in 2050. The results also show though, that such a development can be realised in different ways. In other words, there are various ways to implement a low GHG emission economy in the long term

Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renyi Cao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

Global Transcriptomic Profiling of Cardiac Hypertrophy and Fatty Heart Induced by Long-Term High-Energy Diet in Bama Miniature Pigs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jihan Xia

Full Text Available A long-term high-energy diet affects human health and leads to obesity and metabolic syndrome in addition to cardiac steatosis and hypertrophy. Ectopic fat accumulation in the heart has been demonstrated to be a risk factor for heart disorders, but the molecular mechanism of heart disease remains largely unknown. Bama miniature pigs were fed a high-fat, high-sucrose diet (HFHSD for 23 months. These pigs developed symptoms of metabolic syndrome and showed cardiac steatosis and hypertrophy with a greatly increased body weight (2.73-fold, P<0.01, insulin level (4.60-fold, P<0.01, heart weight (1.82-fold, P<0.05 and heart volume (1.60-fold, P<0.05 compared with the control pigs. To understand the molecular mechanisms of cardiac steatosis and hypertrophy, nine pig heart cRNA samples were hybridized to porcine GeneChips. Microarray analyses revealed that 1,022 genes were significantly differentially expressed (P<0.05, ≥1.5-fold change, including 591 up-regulated and 431 down-regulated genes in the HFHSD group relative to the control group. KEGG analysis indicated that the observed heart disorder involved the signal transduction-related MAPK, cytokine, and PPAR signaling pathways, energy metabolism-related fatty acid and oxidative phosphorylation signaling pathways, heart function signaling-related focal adhesion, axon guidance, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and actin cytoskeleton signaling pathways, inflammation and apoptosis pathways, and others. Quantitative RT-PCR assays identified several important differentially expressed heart-related genes, including STAT3, ACSL4, ATF4, FADD, PPP3CA, CD74, SLA-8, VCL, ACTN2 and FGFR1, which may be targets of further research. This study shows that a long-term, high-energy diet induces obesity, cardiac steatosis, and hypertrophy and provides insights into the molecular mechanisms of hypertrophy and fatty heart to facilitate further research.

Prognostic Factors Affecting Long-Term Survival after Resection for Noncolorectal, Nonneuroendocrine, and Nonsarcoma Liver Metastases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabio Uggeri

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. To evaluate feasibility and long-term outcome after hepatic resection for noncolorectal, nonneuroendocrine, and nonsarcoma (NCNNNS liver metastases in a single center. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed our experience on patients who underwent surgery for NCNNNS liver metastases from 1995 to 2015. Patient baseline characteristics, tumor features, treatment options, and postoperative outcome were retrieved. Results. We included 47 patients. The overall 5-year survival (OS rate after hepatectomy was 27.6%, with a median survival of 21 months. Overall survival was significantly longer for patients operated for nongastrointestinal liver metastases when compared with gastrointestinal (41 versus 10 months; p=0.027. OS was significantly worse in patients with synchronous metastases than in those with metachronous disease (10 versus 22 months; p=0.021. The occurrence of major postoperative complication negatively affected long-term prognosis (OS 23.5 versus 9.0 months; p=0.028. Preoperative tumor characteristics (number and size of the lesions, intraoperative features (extension of resection, need for transfusions, and Pringle’s maneuver, and R0 at pathology were not associated with differences in overall survival. Conclusion. Liver resection represents a possible curative option for patients with NCNNNS metastases. The origin of the primary tumor and the timing of metastases presentation may help clinicians to better select which patients could take advantages from surgical intervention.

Factors affecting the course of body and kidney growth in infants with urolithiasis: A critical long-term evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kemal Sarica

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the possible effects of dietary, patient and stone related factors on the clinical course of the stone disease as well as the body and renal growth status of the infants. Patients and Methods: A total of 50 children with an history of stone disease during infancy period were studied. Patient (anatomical abnormalities, urinary tract infection - UTI, associated morbidities, stone (obstruction, UTI and required interventions and lastly dietary (duration of sole breast feeding, formula feeding related factors which may affect the clinical course of the disease were all evaluated for their effects on the body and renal growth during long-term follow-up. Results: Mean age of the children was 2.40 ± 2.65 years. Our findings demonstrated that infants receiving longer period of breast feeding without formula addition seemed to have a higher rate of normal growth percentile values when compared with the other children. Again, higher frequency of UTI and stone attacks affected the growth status of the infants in a remarkable manner than the other cases. Our findings also demonstrated that thorough a close follow-up and appropriately taken measures; the possible growth retardation as well as renal growth problems could be avoided in children beginning to suffer from stone disease during infancy period. Conclusions: Duration of breast feeding, frequency of UTI, number of stone attacks and stone removal procedures are crucial factors for the clinical course of stone disease in infants that may affect the body as well as kidney growth during long-term follow-up.

Long-term surveillance plan for the Ambrosia Lake, New Mexico disposal site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-07-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Ambrosia Lake disposal site in McKinley County, New Mexico, describes the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) long-term care program for the disposal site. The DOE will carry out this program to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This LTSP was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive materials.

Straw-to-soil or straw-to-energy? An optimal trade off in a long term sustainability perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteleone, Massimo; Cammerino, Anna Rita Bernadette; Garofalo, Pasquale; Delivand, Mitra Kami

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Energy balance and GHG savings of a straw-to-electricity value chain were determined. • An “expanded” LCA was performed, from farm field to electricity delivery. • Both direct and indirect factors of land use change have been considered in the analysis. • No-tillage and crop rotation significantly improved the system performance. • A win–win, sustainable solution for the energy use of straw has been identified. - Abstract: This study examined some management strategies of wheat cultivation system and its sustainability in using straw as an energy feedstock. According to the EU regulatory framework on biofuels, no GHG emissions should be assigned to straws when they are used for energy. Given this relevance in the current energy policy, it is advisable to include all possible marginal effects related to land use, resource utilization and management changes in the comparison of different biomass options. Coherently, an expanded life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to include the upstream cultivation phase and to make a comparison between “straw to soil” and “straw to energy”. Different crop management conditions in Southern Italy were simulated, by using the CropSyst model, to estimate the long-term soil organic carbon and annual N 2 O soil emissions. Three wheat cropping systems were considered: the conventional single wheat system without straw removal (W0) and with partial straw removal (W1), together with a no-tillage “wheat-wheat-herbage” rotation system with partial straw removal (W2). The results of the simulations were integrated in the LCA to compare fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of straw-to-electricity with respect to the fossil-based electricity system. The “improved” rotational wheat cropping system (W2) gave the best performance in terms both of GHG savings and fossil displacement, thus stressing that straw use for energy generation in parallel with the optimization of the

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions? A letter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren, van D.P.; Edmonds, J.; Smith, S.J.; Calvin, K.V.; Karas, J.; Kainuma, M.; Nakicenovic, N.; Riahi, K.; Ruijven, B.J.; Swart, R.J.; Thomson, A.

2010-01-01

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated

Evaluation of the long-term energy analysis program used for the 1978 EIA Administrator's Report to Congress

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peelle, R. W.; Weisbin, C. R.; Alsmiller, Jr., R. G.

1981-10-01

An evaluation of the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP), a computer model of the energy portion of the US economy that was used for the 1995-2020 projections in its 1978 Annual Report to Congress, is presented. An overview of the 1978 version, LEAP Model 22C, is followed by an analysis of the important results needed by its users. The model is then evaluated on the basis of: (1) the adequacy of its documentation; (2) the local experience in operating the model; (3) the adequacy of the numerical techniques used; (4) the soundness of the economic and technical foundations of the model equations; and (5) the degree to which the computer program has been verified. To show which parameters strongly influence the results and to approach the question of whether the model can project important results with sufficient accuracy to support qualitative conclusions, the numerical sensitivities of some important results to model input parameters are described. The input data are categorized and discussed, and uncertainties are given for some parameters as examples. From this background and from the relation of LEAP to other available approaches for long-term energy modeling, an overall evaluation is given of the model's suitability for use by the EIA.

Long-term ecophysiological responses to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

Plant physiology is affected by climate change. Acclimations of photosynthetic processes are induced by short-term changes in climatic conditions. Further acclimation can be caused by longterm adjustments to climate change due to ecosystem-feedbacks. The aim of this PhD was to investigate plant...... term responses of plant physiology to the climate change factors were investigated. In the CLIMAITE-experiment it has been shown that 2 years of treatment altered physiological responses in Deschampsiaand Calluna. In the work of this PhD similar responses were observed after 6 years of treatment...... physiological responses to climate change in a seasonal and long-term perspective. The effects of elevated CO2, passive night time warming and periodic summer drought as single factor and in combination, on plant physiology were investigated in the long-term multifactorial field experiment CLIMAITE in a Danish...

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

Very-long-term and short-term chromatic adaptation: are their influences cumulative?

Science.gov (United States)

Belmore, Suzanne C; Shevell, Steven K

2011-02-09

Very-long-term (VLT) chromatic adaptation results from exposure to an altered chromatic environment for days or weeks. Color shifts from VLT adaptation are observed hours or days after leaving the altered environment. Short-term chromatic adaptation, on the other hand, results from exposure for a few minutes or less, with color shifts measured within seconds or a few minutes after the adapting light is extinguished; recovery to the pre-adapted state is complete in less than an hour. Here, both types of adaptation were combined. All adaptation was to reddish-appearing long-wavelength light. Shifts in unique yellow were measured following adaptation. Previous studies demonstrate shifts in unique yellow due to VLT chromatic adaptation, but shifts from short-term chromatic adaptation to comparable adapting light can be far greater than from VLT adaptation. The question considered here is whether the color shifts from VLT adaptation are cumulative with large shifts from short-term adaptation or, alternatively, does simultaneous short-term adaptation eliminate color shifts caused by VLT adaptation. The results show the color shifts from VLT and short-term adaptation together are cumulative, which indicates that both short-term and very-long-term chromatic adaptation affect color perception during natural viewing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy for the long run: fission or fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulcinski, G.L.; Kessler, G.; Holdren, J.; Haefele, W.

1979-01-01

The alternatives of the most likely and controversial long-range energy sources, fusion and fast-breeder fission, are compared in several areas: potential biological and social hazards, costs of research and development, capital costs, technical complexity, and time factors. It is concluded that from biological and social hazards standpoint, fusion is preferable to fast-breeder fission reactors; however, the LMFBR has already passed on the threshold of scientific and engineering feasibility. It is pointed out that LMFBR should not be compared with short-term energy sources, e.g. coal or oil, but should be compared only with other long-term energy sources, e.g. other types of breeder reactors

Analysis on Japan's long-term energy outlook considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy under nuclear energy scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

2012-01-01

This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand and supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area. (author)

Percutaneous transluminal angioplasty of malfunctioning Brescia-Cimino arteriovenous fistula: analysis of factors adversely affecting long-term patency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Koji; Hirota, Shozo; Sugimura, Kazuro; Higashino, Takanori; Kuwata, Yoichiro; Imanaka, Kazufumi

2003-01-01

Our objective was to identify the factors adversely affecting long-term patency after percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) for hemodialysis Brescia-Cimino arteriovenous fistulas. Between November 1995 and March 2000, 91 PTA procedures were performed on 50 patients with 57 Brescia-Cimino fistulas. A retrospective study based on the chart review was performed. The initial technical success rate for all procedures and the primary and secondary patency rates for all fistulas were calculated. Regarding fistulas successfully maintained by the primary PTA, the primary and secondary patency rates were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method between two patient groups. They were classified on the basis of several factors, including age (older, over 70 years, and younger group), age of the fistulas (older, over 6 months, and younger group), with or without diabetes mellitus (DM), solitary or multiple lesions, long or short segment lesion, stenosis or occlusion, and with or without arterial and/or anastomotic lesions. Initial technical success rates for all procedures and fistulas were 91.2 and 89.5%, respectively. Cumulative primary and secondary patency rates at 1 year were 47.3 and 67.3%, respectively. In the comparative study, the secondary patency rate for the older group was lower than that of the younger group with statistical significance (p =0.029). The higher age is the only factor that reduces the long-term patency rate after PTA. (orig.)

Depletion of serotonin selectively impairs short-term memory without affecting long-term memory in odor learning in the terrestrial slug Limax valentianus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirahata, Takaaki; Tsunoda, Makoto; Santa, Tomofumi; Kirino, Yutaka; Watanabe, Satoshi

2006-01-01

The terrestrial slug Limax is able to acquire short-term and long-term memories during aversive odor-taste associative learning. We investigated the effect of the selective serotonergic neurotoxin 5,7-dihydroxytryptamine (5,7-DHT) on memory. Behavioral studies indicated that 5,7-DHT impaired short-term memory but not long-term memory. HPLC (high-performance liquid chromatography) analysis revealed that 5,7-DHT significantly reduced serotonin content in the central nervous system. The present study suggests that acquisition, retention, and/or retrieval of short-term memory involves serotonin, and neither acquisition nor retrieval of long-term memory requires serotonin at a level as high as that required for short-term memory.

Sensor System for Long-term Recording of Photovoltaic (PV) IV-curves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paasch, Kasper; Nymand, Morten; Haase, Frerk

The purpose of this paper is to present a recording system for long-term investigation of PV panel dynamics under partial shading conditions. The system is intended to be a low-cost system deployable for stand-alone field use and long-term data recording at PV-plants. Passing clouds will affect...

Part I. Alternative fuel-cycle and deployment strategies: their influence on long-term energy supply and resource usage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Till, C.E.; Chang, Y.I.; Rudolph, R.R.

1980-01-01

This report examines the implications of alternative fast breeder fuel cycles and deployment strategies on long-term energy supply and uranium resource utilization. An international-aggregate treatment for nuclear energy demand and resource base assumptions was adopted where specific assumptions were necessary for system analyses, but the primary emphasis was placed on understanding the general relationships between energy demand, uranium resource and breeder deployment option. The fast breeder deployment options studied include the reference Pu/U cycle as well as alternative cycles with varying degrees of thorium utilization

Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon Jin Park

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

Long-term psychosocial consequences of surgical congenital malformations.

Science.gov (United States)

Diseth, Trond H; Emblem, Ragnhild

2017-10-01

Surgical congenital malformations often represent years of treatment, large number of hospital stays, treatment procedures, and long-term functional sequels affecting patients' psychosocial functioning. Both functional defects and psychosocial difficulties that occur commonly in childhood may pass through adolescence on to adulthood. This overview presents reports published over the past 3 decades to elucidate the long-term psychosocial consequences of surgical congenital malformations. Literature searches conducted on PubMed database revealed that less than 1% of all the records of surgical congenital malformations described long-term psychosocial consequences, but with diverse findings. This inconsistency may be due to methodological differences or deficiencies; especially in study design, patient sampling, and methods. Most of the studies revealed that the functional deficits may have great impact on patients' mental health, psychosocial functioning, and QoL; both short- and long-term negative consequences. Factors other than functional problems, e.g., repeated anesthesia, multiple hospitalization, traumatic treatment procedures, and parental dysfunctioning, may also predict long-term mental health and psychosocial functioning. Through multidisciplinary approach, pediatric surgeons should also be aware of deficits in emotional and psychosocial functioning. To achieve overall optimal psychosocial functioning, the challenge is to find a compromise between physically optimal treatment procedures and procedures that are not psychologically detrimental. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

CaMKII knockdown affects both early and late phases of olfactory long-term memory in the honeybee.

Science.gov (United States)

Scholl, Christina; Kübert, Natalie; Muenz, Thomas S; Rössler, Wolfgang

2015-12-01

Honeybees are able to solve complex learning tasks and memorize learned information for long time periods. The molecular mechanisms mediating long-term memory (LTM) in the honeybee Apis mellifera are, to a large part, still unknown. We approached this question by investigating the potential function of the calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII), an enzyme known as a 'molecular memory switch' in vertebrates. CaMKII is able to switch to a calcium-independent constitutively active state, providing a mechanism for a molecular memory and has further been shown to play an essential role in structural synaptic plasticity. Using a combination of knockdown by RNA interference and pharmacological manipulation, we disrupted the function of CaMKII during olfactory learning and memory formation. We found that learning, memory acquisition and mid-term memory were not affected, but all manipulations consistently resulted in an impaired LTM. Both early LTM (24 h after learning) and late LTM (72 h after learning) were significantly disrupted, indicating the necessity of CaMKII in two successive stages of LTM formation in the honeybee. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Short-term and long-term memory in early temporal lobe dysfunction.

Science.gov (United States)

Hershey, T; Craft, S; Glauser, T A; Hale, S

1998-01-01

Following medial temporal damage, mature humans are impaired in retaining new information over long delays but not short delays. The question of whether a similar dissociation occurs in children was addressed by testing children (ages 7-16) with unilateral temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and controls on short- and long-term memory tasks, including a spatial delayed response task (SDR). Early-onset TLE did not affect performance on short delays on SDR, but it did impair performance at the longest delay (60 s), similar to adults with unilateral medial temporal damage. In addition, early-onset TLE affected performance on pattern recall, spatial span, and verbal span with rehearsal interference. No differences were found on story recall or on a response inhibition task.

Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Eimori, Keiko; Endo, Naoto; Uchiyama, Seiji; Takahashi, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Kei

2016-01-01

Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism. This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH) vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years. Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients.

Depletion of Serotonin Selectively Impairs Short-Term Memory without Affecting Long-Term Memory in Odor Learning in the Terrestrial Slug "Limax Valentianus"

Science.gov (United States)

Santa, Tomofumi; Kirino, Yutaka; Watanabe, Satoshi; Shirahata, Takaaki; Tsunoda, Makoto

2006-01-01

The terrestrial slug "Limax" is able to acquire short-term and long-term memories during aversive odor-taste associative learning. We investigated the effect of the selective serotonergic neurotoxin 5,7-dihydroxytryptamine (5,7-DHT) on memory. Behavioral studies indicated that 5,7-DHT impaired short-term memory but not long-term memory. HPLC…

Temporary and long-term consequences of bereavement on happiness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moor, J.A.; de Graaf, P.M.

In this article, we examine the temporary and long-term consequences of the death of a parent or child on happiness. According to set-point theory external conditions are expected to only have a short-term or limited influence on happiness. This directly contradicts the basic assumption of affective

Methylphenidate during early consolidation affects long-term associative memory retrieval depending on baseline catecholamines.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Isabella C; van Buuren, Mariët; Bovy, Leonore; Morris, Richard G; Fernández, Guillén

2017-02-01

Synaptic memory consolidation is thought to rely on catecholaminergic signaling. Eventually, it is followed by systems consolidation, which embeds memories in a neocortical network. Although this sequence was demonstrated in rodents, it is unclear how catecholamines affect memory consolidation in humans. Here, we tested the effects of catecholaminergic modulation on synaptic and subsequent systems consolidation. We expected enhanced memory performance and increased neocortical engagement during delayed retrieval. Additionally, we tested if this effect was modulated by individual differences in a cognitive proxy measure of baseline catecholamine synthesis capacity. Fifty-three healthy males underwent a between-subjects, double-blind, placebo-controlled procedure across 2 days. On day 1, subjects studied and retrieved object-location associations and received 20 mg of methylphenidate or placebo. Drug intake was timed so that methylphenidate was expected to affect early consolidation but not encoding or retrieval. Memory was tested again while subjects were scanned three days later. Methylphenidate did not facilitate memory performance, and there was no significant group difference in activation during delayed retrieval. However, memory representations differed between groups depending on baseline catecholamines. The placebo group showed increased activation in occipito-temporal regions but decreased connectivity with the hippocampus, associated with lower baseline catecholamine synthesis capacity. The methylphenidate group showed stronger activation in the postcentral gyrus, associated with higher baseline catecholamine synthesis capacity. Altogether, methylphenidate during early consolidation did not foster long-term memory performance, but it affected retrieval-related neural processes depending on individual levels of baseline catecholamines.

Long Term Incentives for Residential Customers Using Dynamic Tariff

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

2015-01-01

This paper reviews several grid tariff schemes, including flat tariff, time-of-use, time-varying tariff, demand charge and dynamic tariff (DT), from the perspective of the long term incentives. The long term incentives can motivate the owners of flexible demands to change their energy consumption...... behavior in such a way that the power system operation issues, such as system balance and congestion, can be alleviated. From the comparison study, including analysis and case study, the DT scheme outperforms the other tariff schemes in terms of cost saving and network operation condition improving....

Long-term scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions: Summary of results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathaye, J.

1991-01-01

Energy use in developing countries has risen more quickly than in the industrialized world, with a consequent increase in the developing world's share in global modern energy use from 16% in 1970 to 24% in 1987. As a result, while the developing countries' share of carbon dioxide emissions is small today, it is growing rapidly. The following is a brief summary of the aggregate results derived from the work on long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the sic members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The countries experience varying rates of population growth between 1985 and 2025. The fastest growth rates occur in Africa - particularly in Nigeria and Ghana - and in the GCC. In Korea and China, where the governments have implemented policies to control the expansion of the population, the growth rates remain significantly lower. The economic growth rates correspond with national projections and/or expert judgment. GDP shows a wide variance across the study countries; and in each country distinct factors account for the differences in rates of growth. Argentina, for example, experiences a relatively slow increase in GDP as the foundation of its economy moves away from manufacturing and towards agriculture-based industry. In contrast, Korea's development of its less energy-intensive industries continues to fuel high rates of economic growth between 1985 and 2025

Long-Term Care for People with Development Disabilities: A Critical Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Palley, Howard A.; Van Hollen, Valerie

2000-01-01

Explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. Reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area.…

A kinase-dependent feedforward loop affects CREBB stability and long term memory formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Pei-Tseng; Lin, Guang; Lin, Wen-Wen; Diao, Fengqiu; White, Benjamin H; Bellen, Hugo J

2018-02-23

In Drosophila , long-term memory (LTM) requires the cAMP-dependent transcription factor CREBB, expressed in the mushroom bodies (MB) and phosphorylated by PKA. To identify other kinases required for memory formation, we integrated Trojan exons encoding T2A-GAL4 into genes encoding putative kinases and selected for genes expressed in MB. These lines were screened for learning/memory deficits using UAS-RNAi knockdown based on an olfactory aversive conditioning assay. We identified a novel, conserved kinase, Meng-Po ( MP , CG11221 , SBK1 in human), the loss of which severely affects 3 hr memory and 24 hr LTM, but not learning. Remarkably, memory is lost upon removal of the MP protein in adult MB but restored upon its reintroduction. Overexpression of MP in MB significantly increases LTM in wild-type flies showing that MP is a limiting factor for LTM. We show that PKA phosphorylates MP and that both proteins synergize in a feedforward loop to control CREBB levels and LTM. key words: Drosophila, Mushroom bodies, SBK1, deGradFP, T2A-GAL4, MiMIC.

China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.

2012-01-13

We present here a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

Long term energy plan of Mongolian with nuclear power plant using Message code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tsolmonbaatar, Batmunkh; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

In this paper, an overview of the current situation of Mongolia's energy sector and its role and contribution in the country's economy and environment, and a comprehensive assessment of the sector, are provided. Most importantly, the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) model used to forecast the future energy supply and demand and to build and compare possible scenarios that could sustain economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy security in the country. In this paper, two scenarios for long-term energy development in Mongolia by 2040 were built using the MESSAGE model, and 2010 was set as the base year. The forecasting of the energy demand and supply was shown as a build the first model of Mongolia energy system to forecast the potentials of using NPP technology in the energy mix of Mongolia energy system. The industry and mining project sectors are expected to remain as the main energy consumers in the next decades. The demand of the sector will be three times of the total energy demand by 2040. The development of big mining projects and the increasing number of vehicles in Mongolia are the main factors that will contribute to the increased demand. Coal still accounts for the largest share in Mongolia's total primary energy demand. MESSAGE result shown in fig.2, which shows an exponential increase in coal resources demand in the future. It will be big issue to environmental impact (e.g., CO{sub 2} emission). The estimated CO{sub 2} emissions from fuel combustion are 13.0 million tones in Mongolia, this should be mitigated significantly, to meet the CO{sub 2} reduction target.

Long-term economic outlook. Annual review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-01-01

This review provides economic growth forecast tables for Ontario, Canada, the US, Western Europe, and Japan. Economic growth, government policy, the long-term prospects for inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, trends in the Canadian dollar, and energy markets and prices are also reviewed. Data generally cover 1965-2025. Appendices give a summary of historical and forecast data. 18 figs., 16 tabs.

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

Science.gov (United States)

Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.

2018-03-30

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward

Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes

Science.gov (United States)

Neveu, André

2009-09-01

In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.

Role of thorium in ensuring long term energy security to India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malhotra, S.K.

2013-01-01

Role of nuclear power in ensuring energy security to the world is inevitable due to a) dwindling fossil fuel resources and b) need for minimising green house gas emission that poses the risk of global climate change. India, keeping in mind its limited uranium and vast thorium resources, is pursuing a three stage nuclear power programme. The first stage is based on reactors that use uranium as fuel. It comprises of the indigenous Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors using natural uranium as fuel and light water reactors that employ enriched uranium as fuel and are to be set up in technical collaboration with other countries. The second stage is based on fast breeder reactors that employ plutonium derived from reprocessing of spent fuel from the first stage reactors. The third stage envisages reactors which will employ thorium based fuel after its irradiation in the second stage reactors. This programme is sequential in nature and has an ultimate objective of securing long term energy security to India through judicial use of its thorium resources. Thorium based reactors offer advantages in terms of better neutronic characteristics of thorium, it being better fertile host for plutonium disposition and better thermo-mechanical properties and slower fuel deterioration of thorium oxide. It is planned to introduce thorium in the Indian Nuclear Power Programme after sufficient (about 200 GWe) capacity build-up in the second stage. DAE is a global leader in the development of the entire thorium fuel cycle. It has a mature technology for extraction of thorium and preparation of thoria pellets. It has long back carried out irradiation of thoria pellets in its research reactors and also in PHWRs, post irradiation examination and reprocessing of irradiated thoria, fabrication of 233 U based fuel. It has KAMINI - the world's only operating reactor employing 233 U as fuel. An Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) has been designed as a technology demonstrator for large scale

Environmental and genetic preconditioning for long-term anoxia responses requires AMPK in Caenorhabditis elegans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bobby L LaRue

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Preconditioning environments or therapeutics, to suppress the cellular damage associated with severe oxygen deprivation, is of interest to our understanding of diseases associated with oxygen deprivation. Wildtype C. elegans exposed to anoxia enter into a state of suspended animation in which energy-requiring processes reversibly arrest. C. elegans at all developmental stages survive 24-hours of anoxia exposure however, the ability of adult hermaphrodites to survive three days of anoxia significantly decreases. Mutations in the insulin-like signaling receptor (daf-2 and LIN-12/Notch (glp-1 lead to an enhanced long-term anoxia survival phenotype.In this study we show that the combined growth environment of 25°C and a diet of HT115 E. coli will precondition adult hermaphrodites to survive long-term anoxia; many of these survivors have normal movement after anoxia treatment. Animals fed the drug metformin, which induces a dietary-restriction like state in animals and activates AMPK in mammalian cell culture, have a higher survival rate when exposed to long-term anoxia. Mutations in genes encoding components of AMPK (aak-2, aakb-1, aakb-2, aakg-2 suppress the environmentally and genetically induced long-term anoxia survival phenotype. We further determine that there is a correlation between the animals that survive long-term anoxia and increased levels of carminic acid staining, which is a fluorescent dye that incorporates in with carbohydrates such as glycogen.We conclude that small changes in growth conditions such as increased temperature and food source can influence the physiology of the animal thus affecting the responses to stress such as anoxia. Furthermore, this supports the idea that metformin should be further investigated as a therapeutic tool for treatment of oxygen-deprived tissues. Finally, the capacity for an animal to survive long bouts of severe oxygen deprivation is likely dependent on specific subunits of the heterotrimeric

Methodology of long term behaviour study of containment materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vernaz, E.; Godon, N.

1994-01-01

Here is the presentation of the papers shown in the colloquium on environment and ceramics; the Atomic Energy Commissariat (Cea) have been working for fifteen years on the long term behaviour of fission products glasses on very long periods, about several millions years. The method of studies is detailed. 2 refs

Long-term surveillance plan for the Lowman, Idaho, disposal site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

The long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Lowman, Idaho, Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project disposal site describes the surveillance activities for the Lowman disposal cell. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will carry out these activities to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This preliminary final LTSP is being submitted to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as a requirement for issuance of a general license for custody and long-term care for the disposal site. The general license requires that the disposal cell be cared for in accordance with the provisions of this LTSP. The LTSP documents whether the land and interests are owned by the United States or an Indian tribe, and describes, in detail, how the long-term care of the disposal site will be carried out through the UMTRA Project long-term surveillance program. The Lowman, Idaho, LTSP is based on the DOE's Guidance for Implementing the UMTRA Project Long-term Surveillance Program, (DOE, 1992)

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

Neural bases of orthographic long-term memory and working memory in dysgraphia.

Science.gov (United States)

Rapp, Brenda; Purcell, Jeremy; Hillis, Argye E; Capasso, Rita; Miceli, Gabriele

2016-02-01

Spelling a word involves the retrieval of information about the word's letters and their order from long-term memory as well as the maintenance and processing of this information by working memory in preparation for serial production by the motor system. While it is known that brain lesions may selectively affect orthographic long-term memory and working memory processes, relatively little is known about the neurotopographic distribution of the substrates that support these cognitive processes, or the lesions that give rise to the distinct forms of dysgraphia that affect these cognitive processes. To examine these issues, this study uses a voxel-based mapping approach to analyse the lesion distribution of 27 individuals with dysgraphia subsequent to stroke, who were identified on the basis of their behavioural profiles alone, as suffering from deficits only affecting either orthographic long-term or working memory, as well as six other individuals with deficits affecting both sets of processes. The findings provide, for the first time, clear evidence of substrates that selectively support orthographic long-term and working memory processes, with orthographic long-term memory deficits centred in either the left posterior inferior frontal region or left ventral temporal cortex, and orthographic working memory deficits primarily arising from lesions of the left parietal cortex centred on the intraparietal sulcus. These findings also contribute to our understanding of the relationship between the neural instantiation of written language processes and spoken language, working memory and other cognitive skills. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of long-term meditation practice on cardiovascular reactivity during perception and reappraisal of affective images.

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlov, Sergei V; Reva, Natalia V; Loktev, Konstantin V; Korenyok, Vladimir V; Aftanas, Lyubomir I

2015-03-01

Meditation has been found to be an efficient strategy for coping with stress in healthy individuals and in patients with psychosomatic disorders. The main objective of the present study was to investigate the psychophysiological mechanisms of beneficial effects of meditation on cardiovascular reactivity. We examined effects of long-term Sahaja Yoga meditation on cardiovascular reactivity during affective image processing under "unregulated" and "emotion regulation" conditions. Twenty two experienced meditators and 20 control subjects participated in the study. Under "unregulated" conditions participants were shown neutral and affective images and were asked to attend to them. Under "emotion regulation" conditions they down-regulated negative affect through reappraisal of negative images or up-regulated positive affect through reappraisal of positive images. Under "unregulated" conditions while anticipating upcoming images meditators vs. controls did not show larger pre-stimulus total peripheral resistance and greater cardiac output for negative images in comparison with neutral and positive ones. Control subjects showed TPR decrease for negative images only when they consciously intended to reappraise them (i.e. in the "emotion regulation" condition). Both meditators and controls showed comparable cardiovascular reactivity during perception of positive stimuli, whereas up-regulating of positive affect was associated with more pronounced cardiac activation in meditators. The findings provide some insight into understanding the beneficial influence of meditation on top-down control of emotion and cardiovascular reactivity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the effects of oil shocks on long-term public debt: A review of empirical data and a scenario analysis of future projections

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Jillian Taylor

Various authors have shown that each oil shock in the past 40 years has had statistically significant impacts on subsequent macroeconomic activity in the United States. Through these economic effects, oil shocks affect Federal revenues and expenditures and hence public debt. Published Federal budget scenarios do not currently reflect these impacts of oil shocks. I synthesize, in this paper, literature quantifying the impact of oil price increases on GDP growth and use that information to modify current long-term Federal budget models to present scenarios of how oil shocks are likely to affect long-term Federal debt. I argue that modeling the impact of oil price increases on long-term public debt could inform public policies, particularly those relating to Federal investments in energy conservation. Key Words: crude oil, oil shock, oil price spike, oil shock, Federal debt, debt projections, Congressional Budget Office

Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy V.P. Bliss

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

Long-term surveillance plan for the Gunnison, Colorado disposal site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-04-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Gunnison disposal site in Gunnison County, Colorado. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed regulations for the issuance of a general license for the custody and long-term care of UMTRA Project disposal sites in 10 CFR Part 40. The purpose of this general license is to ensure that the UMTRA Project disposal sites will be cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. For each disposal site to be licensed, the NRC requires the DOE to submit a site-specific LTSP. The DOE prepared this LTSP to meet this requirement for the Gunnison disposal site. The general license becomes effective when the NRC concurs with the DOE`s determination of completion of remedial action for the Gunnison site and the NRC formally accepts this LTSP. This LTSP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure that the Gunnison disposal site performs as designed. The program is based on two distinct activities: (1) site inspections to identify threats to disposal cell integrity, and (2) ground water monitoring to demonstrate disposal cell performance. The LTSP is based on the UMTRA Project long-term surveillance program guidance and meets the requirements of 10 CFR {section}40.27(b) and 40 CFR {section}192.03.

Long-term surveillance plan for the Gunnison, Colorado, disposal site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-04-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Gunnison disposal site in Gunnison County, Colorado. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed regulations for the issuance of a general license for the custody and long-term care of UMTRA Project disposal sites in 10 CFR Part 40. The purpose of this general license is to ensure that the UMTRA Project disposal sites will be cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. Before each disposal site is licensed, the NRC requires the DOE to submit a site-specific LTSP. The DOE prepared this LTSP to meet this requirement for the Gunnison disposal site. The general license becomes effective when the NRC concurs with the DOE`s determination of completion of remedial action for the Gunnison site and the NRC formally accepts this LTSP. This LTSP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure that the Gunnison disposal site performs as designed. The program is based on two distinct activities: (1) site inspections to identify threats to disposal cell integrity, and (2) ground water monitoring to demonstrate disposal cell performance. The LTSP is based on the UMTRA Project long-term surveillance program guidance and meets the requirements of 10 CFR {section}40.27(b) and 40 CFR {section}192.03.

Long-term surveillance plan for the Gunnison, Colorado, disposal site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-05-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Gunnison disposal site in Gunnison County, Colorado. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed regulations for the issuance of a general license for the custody and long-term care of UMTRA Project disposal sites in 10 CFR Part 40. The purpose of this general license is to ensure that the UMTRA Project disposal sites will be cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. For each disposal site to be licensed, the NRC requires the DOE to submit a site-specific LTSP. The DOE prepared this LTSP to meet this requirement for the Gunnison disposal site. The general license becomes effective when the NRC concurs with the DOE`s determination of completion of remedial action for the Gunnison site and the NRC formally accepts this LTSP. This LTSP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure that the Gunnison disposal site performs as designed. The program is based on two distinct activities: (1) site inspections to identify threats to disposal cell integrity, and (2) ground water monitoring to demonstrate disposal cell performance. The LTSP is based on the UMTRA Project long-term surveillance program guidance and meets the requirements of 10 CFR {section}40.27(b) and 40 CFR {section}192.03.

Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucas, Paul L.; Shukla, P.R.; Chen, Wenying; Ruijven, Bas J. van; Dhar, Subash; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2013-01-01

This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 °C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies. - highlights: • We analyze long-term impacts of the international pledges for China and India. • We compare a least-cost pathway with a pathway starting from the Copenhagen pledges. • Postponing mitigation action implies much higher cumulative mitigation costs. • Postponing increases fossil fuel dependence and requires deeper long-term reductions. • Countries differ mainly due to different periods of rapid economic change

Long-term surveillance plan for the South Clive disposal site Clive, Utah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project South Clive disposal site in Clive, Utah. This LSTP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure the South Clive disposal site performs as designed and is cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. Before each disposal site is licensed for custody and long-term care, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires the DOE to submit such a site-specific LTSP

PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

2014-01-01

In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

Long-term care for people with developmental disabilities: a critical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Palley, H A; Van Hollen, V

2000-08-01

This article explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. The article also reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area. The authors conclude that future policies with respect to meeting long-term care needs for people with developmental disabilities must be addressed flexibly on an individual basis, related to individual needs, and must provide a continuum of care services.

The roles of long-term phonotactic and lexical prosodic knowledge in phonological short-term memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanida, Yuki; Ueno, Taiji; Lambon Ralph, Matthew A; Saito, Satoru

2015-04-01

Many previous studies have explored and confirmed the influence of long-term phonological representations on phonological short-term memory. In most investigations, phonological effects have been explored with respect to phonotactic constraints or frequency. If interaction between long-term memory and phonological short-term memory is a generalized principle, then other phonological characteristics-that is, suprasegmental aspects of phonology-should also exert similar effects on phonological short-term memory. We explored this hypothesis through three immediate serial-recall experiments that manipulated Japanese nonwords with respect to lexical prosody (pitch-accent type, reflecting suprasegmental characteristics) as well as phonotactic frequency (reflecting segmental characteristics). The results showed that phonotactic frequency affected the retention not only of the phonemic sequences, but also of pitch-accent patterns, when participants were instructed to recall both the phoneme sequence and accent pattern of nonwords. In addition, accent pattern typicality influenced the retention of the accent pattern: Typical accent patterns were recalled more accurately than atypical ones. These results indicate that both long-term phonotactic and lexical prosodic knowledge contribute to phonological short-term memory performance.

Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan for the U.S. Department of Energy Amchitka, Alaska, Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2008-09-01

This Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan describes how the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) intends to fulfill its mission to maintain protection of human health and the environment at the Amchitka, Alaska, Site1. Three underground nuclear tests were conducted on Amchitka Island. The U.S. Department of Defense, in conjunction with the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), conducted the first nuclear test (Long Shot) to provide data that would improve the United States' capability of detecting underground nuclear explosions. The second nuclear test (Milrow) was a weapons-related test conducted by AEC as a means to study the feasibility of detonating a much larger device. The final nuclear test (Cannikin), the largest United States underground test, was a weapons-related test. Surface disturbances associated with these tests have been remediated. However, radioactivity remains deep below the surface, contained in and around the test cavities, for which no feasible remediation technology has been identified. In 2006, the groundwater model (Hassan et al. 2002) was updated using 2005 data collected by the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation. Model simulation results indicate there is no breakthrough or seepage of radionuclides into the marine environment within 2,000 years. The Amchitka conceptual model is reasonable; the flow and transport simulation is based on the best available information and data. The simulation results are a quantitative prediction supported by the best available science and technology. This Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan is an additional step intended for the protection of human health and the environment. This plan may be modified from time to time in the future consistent with the mission to protect human health

Gap filling strategies for long term energy flux data sets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.; Anthoni, P.; Aubinet, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Burba, G.; Ceulemans, R.; Clement, R.; Dolman, H.; Granier, A.; Gross, P.; Grünwald, T.; Hollinger, D.; Jensen, N.O.; Katul, G.; Keronen, P.; Kowalski, A.; Lai, C.T.; Law, B.E.; Meyers, T.; Moncrieff, J.; Moors, E.J.; Munger, J.W.; Pilegaard, K.; Rebmann, C.; Suyker, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Tu, K.

2001-01-01

At present a network of over 100 field sites are measuring carbon dioxide, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere, on a nearly continuous basis. Gaps in the long term measurements of evaporation and sensible heat flux must be filled before these data can be used

Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-12-01

It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

Long-Term Symbolic Learning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

2007-01-01

What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

How effective are energy efficiency and renewable energy in curbing CO2 emissions in the long run? A heterogeneous panel data analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Özbuğday, Fatih Cemil; Erbas, Bahar Celikkol

2015-01-01

Energy efficiency and renewable energy are considered to be two indispensable solutions to control GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. Moreover, industrialization is at the center of discussions on the roles of countries to reduce CO 2 emissions. However, the literature is underprovided to understand the long run contribution of energy efficiency, renewable energy and industrial composition in reducing GHG emissions at the macro level. In this study, we differentiate the effects of economic activity, energy efficiency, economic structure and use of renewable energy resources on CO 2 emissions. We develop energy efficiency indices for thirty six countries for the period of 1971–2009 and use a CCE (common correlated effects) estimator model that is consistent under heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. We find a positive significant effect of energy efficiency on CO 2 emissions in the long-run. Similarly, substituting renewable energy for non-renewable energy reduces CO 2 emissions in the long-run. Our results ensure widely discussed roles of energy efficiency and renewable energy in curbing CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the scale of economic activity measured by real income and industrialization have significant positive effect on CO 2 emissions. - Highlights: • We model long-run effects of energy efficiency and renewable energy on CO 2 . • Energy efficiency significantly reduces CO 2 emissions over the long term. • Replacing non-renewable energy sources with renewable ones reduces CO 2 emissions. • CO 2 emissions rise with increases in real income. • Industrial composition affects CO 2 emissions

Excavation-drier method of energy-peat extraction reduces long-term climatic impact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silvan, N.; Silvan, K.; Laine, J. [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Parkano (Finland)], e-mail: niko.silvan@metla.fi; Vaisanen, S.; Soukka, R. [Lappeenranta Univ.of Techology (Finland)

2012-11-01

Climatic impacts of energy-peat extraction are of increasing concern due to EU emissions trading requirements. A new excavation-drier peat extraction method has been developed to reduce the climatic impact and increase the efficiency of peat extraction. To quantify and compare the soil GHG fluxes of the excavation drier and the traditional milling methods, as well as the areas from which the energy peat is planned to be extracted in the future (extraction reserve area types), soil CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O fluxes were measured during 2006-2007 at three sites in Finland. Within each site, fluxes were measured from drained extraction reserve areas, extraction fields and stockpiles of both methods and additionally from the biomass driers of the excavation-drier method. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), described at a principal level in ISO Standards 14040:2006 and 14044:2006, was used to assess the long-term (100 years) climatic impact from peatland utilisation with respect to land use and energy production chains where utilisation of coal was replaced with peat. Coal was used as a reference since in many cases peat and coal can replace each other in same power plants. According to this study, the peat extraction method used was of lesser significance than the extraction reserve area type in regards to the climatic impact. However, the excavation-drier method seems to cause a slightly reduced climatic impact as compared with the prevailing milling method. (orig.)

The histone deacetylase HDAC4 regulates long-term memory in Drosophila.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzsimons, Helen L; Schwartz, Silvia; Given, Fiona M; Scott, Maxwell J

2013-01-01

A growing body of research indicates that pharmacological inhibition of histone deacetylases (HDACs) correlates with enhancement of long-term memory and current research is concentrated on determining the roles that individual HDACs play in cognitive function. Here, we investigate the role of HDAC4 in long-term memory formation in Drosophila. We show that overexpression of HDAC4 in the adult mushroom body, an important structure for memory formation, resulted in a specific impairment in long-term courtship memory, but had no affect on short-term memory. Overexpression of an HDAC4 catalytic mutant also abolished LTM, suggesting a mode of action independent of catalytic activity. We found that overexpression of HDAC4 resulted in a redistribution of the transcription factor MEF2 from a relatively uniform distribution through the nucleus into punctate nuclear bodies, where it colocalized with HDAC4. As MEF2 has also been implicated in regulation of long-term memory, these data suggest that the repressive effects of HDAC4 on long-term memory may be through interaction with MEF2. In the same genetic background, we also found that RNAi-mediated knockdown of HDAC4 impairs long-term memory, therefore we demonstrate that HDAC4 is not only a repressor of long-term memory, but also modulates normal memory formation.

The hydrogen energy economy: its long-term role in greenhouse gas reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geoff Dutton; Abigail Bristow; Matthew Page; Charlotte Kelly; Jim Watson; Alison Tetteh [CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot (United Kingdom). Energy Research Unit (ERU)

2005-01-15

The potential contribution and viability of the hydrogen energy economy towards reducing UK carbon dioxide emissions in the time horizon to 2050 has been assessed using a quantitative model of the UK energy system in the context of a set of diverse socio-economic scenarios. It is argued that different sets of prevailing circumstances are likely to result in very different opportunities for hydrogen and hence very different transition pathways and ultimate penetration levels. The decision on whether to strategically encourage a transition to the hydrogen economy and the ultimate environmental benefits of such a transformation will depend on the outcome of a number of important political and social decisions. These include the acceptability of large scale carbon dioxide sequestration (hydrogen derived from fossil fuels), decisions about land-use (hydrogen from biomass), a possible doubling (or more) of the current electricity production capacity with a high penetration of renewable electricity (hydrogen from electrolysis of water), and/or the public acceptability of a large scale nuclear renaissance (hydrogen from electrolysis of water or from thermo-chemical cycles). Any rapid transition to a fully developed hydrogen economy would require a contribution from at least some and possibly all of these sources. Such a transition could result in a marked decrease in carbon dioxide emissions over the long term, but might even result in increased emissions within the shorter term (due to the initial use of hydrogen derived from fossil fuels without carbon dioxide sequestration or from the bulk grid electricity supply resulting in increased load factors and lifetimes of old fossil-fired power plant to meet the increased overall demand). 47 refs., 45 figs., 19 tabs., 3 apps.

International Long-term Data and Analysis Preservation

CERN Document Server

Shiers, J; Rahal, G; South, D; Guelzow, V; CERN. Geneva. IT Department

2011-01-01

The preservation of scientific data for long-term use and re-analysis has been identified as a key requirement in the field of High Energy Physics and other disciplines such as Astronomy and Astrophysics, as well as Life and Earth Sciences. In collaboration with related projects in the US (in particular in close collaboration with the National Science Foundation and Department of Energy) the proposed project would take the work of the Data Preservation in HEP Study group that defines the physics motivation for long-term data preservation and many of the associated issues, and extend this to cover not only the existing use cases but also consider the needs of the LHC experiments at CERN. This work would ensure the persistent availability of existing data and enable it to be shared between organisations and across national boundaries. Now is the time to define standards for data and meta-data formats and address access and authorization issues for on-going experiments (e.g. those at the LHC) – issues that hav...

The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jablonski, Sophie; Bauen, Ausilio; Strachan, Neil; Brand, Christian

2010-01-01

This paper explores the prospects and policy implications for bioenergy to contribute to a long-term sustainable UK energy system. The UK MARKAL technology-focused energy systems dynamic cost optimisation model - which has been used to quantify the costs and benefits of alternative energy strategies in UK policy making - is enhanced with detailed representation of bio-energy chains and end-uses. This provides an important advance in linking bioenergy expert-knowledge with a whole system modelling approach, in order to better understand the potential role of bioenergy in an evolving energy system. The new BIOSYS-MARKAL model is used to run four scenarios constructed along the pillars of UK energy policy objectives (low carbon and energy security). The results are analysed in terms of bioenergy resources use and bioenergy pathways penetration in different end use sectors. The main findings suggest that the complexity of different bioenergy pathways may have been overlooked in previous modelling exercises. A range of bioenergy pathways - notably bio-heat and biofuels for transport - may have a much wider potential role to play. The extent to which this potential is fulfilled will be further determined by resources availability, and market segment constraints, as well as policy measures to improve deployment. (author)

Long term hydrogen production potential of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) system in tropical weather of Singapore

KAUST Repository

Burhan, Muhammad

2016-08-23

Concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) system provides highest solar energy conversion efficiency among all the photovoltaic technologies and provides the most suitable option to convert solar energy into hydrogen, as future sustainable energy carrier. So far, only conventional flat plate PV systems are being used for almost all of the commercial applications. However, most of the studies have only shown the maximum efficiency of hydrogen production using CPV. In actual field conditions, the performance of CPV-Hydrogen system is affected by many parameter and it changes continuously during whole day operation. In this paper, the daily average and long term performances are proposed to analyze the real field potential of the CPV-Hydrogen system, which is of main interest for designers and consumers. An experimental setup is developed and a performance model is proposed to investigate the average and long term production potential of CPV-Hydrogen system. The study is carried out in tropical weather of Singapore. The maximum CPV efficiency of 27-28% and solar to hydrogen (STH) efficiency of 18%, were recorded. In addition, the CPV-Hydrogen system showed the long term average efficiency of 15.5%, for period of one year (12-months), with electrolyser rating of 47 kWh/kg and STH production potential of 218 kWh/kg. Based upon the DNI availability, the system showed hydrogen production potential of 0.153-0.553 kg/m/month, with average production of 0.43 kg/m/month. However, CPV-Hydrogen system has shown annual hydrogen production potential of 5.162 kg/m/year in tropical weather of Singapore.

Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case study of South Korea's energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, Daiki; Chung, Jaewoo

2013-01-01

This paper presents a practical portfolio model for the long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed model optimizes the power generation mix by striking a trade-off between the expected cost of power generation and its variability. We use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to consider the uncertainty associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and the capital costs of power plants. Unlike in the case of conventional power generation mix models, we employ CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) in designing variability to consider events that are rare but enormously expensive. A comprehensive analysis on South Korea's generation policy using the portfolio model shows that a large annual cost is additionally charged to substitute a portion of nuclear energy with other alternatives. Nonetheless, if Korea has to reduce its dependency on nuclear energy because of undermined social receptivity from the Fukushima disaster, it turns out that LNG or coal could be a secure candidate from an economic perspective. - Author-Highlights: • We develop a stochastic optimization model for long-term power generation mix. • Monte Carlo sampling method and scenario trees are used to solve the model. • The model is verified using the data provided by Korean government. • We evaluate Korea's existing nuclear expansion policy. • We analyze the cost of replacing nuclear energy with others in South Korea

Chronic sleep deprivation differentially affects short and long-term operant memory in Aplysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, Harini C; Noakes, Eric J; Lyons, Lisa C

2016-10-01

The induction, formation and maintenance of memory represent dynamic processes modulated by multiple factors including the circadian clock and sleep. Chronic sleep restriction has become common in modern society due to occupational and social demands. Given the impact of cognitive impairments associated with sleep deprivation, there is a vital need for a simple animal model in which to study the interactions between chronic sleep deprivation and memory. We used the marine mollusk Aplysia californica, with its simple nervous system, nocturnal sleep pattern and well-characterized learning paradigms, to assess the effects of two chronic sleep restriction paradigms on short-term (STM) and long-term (LTM) associative memory. The effects of sleep deprivation on memory were evaluated using the operant learning paradigm, learning that food is inedible, in which the animal associates a specific netted seaweed with failed swallowing attempts. We found that two nights of 6h sleep deprivation occurring during the first or last half of the night inhibited both STM and LTM. Moreover, the impairment in STM persisted for more than 24h. A milder, prolonged sleep deprivation paradigm consisting of 3 consecutive nights of 4h sleep deprivation also blocked STM, but had no effect on LTM. These experiments highlight differences in the sensitivity of STM and LTM to chronic sleep deprivation. Moreover, these results establish Aplysia as a valid model for studying the interactions between chronic sleep deprivation and associative memory paving the way for future studies delineating the mechanisms through which sleep restriction affects memory formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

Monitoring the Long-Term Performance of Engineered Containment Systems: Role of Ecological Processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Traynham, B.; Clarke, J.H.; Burger, J.; Waugh, J.

2009-01-01

Engineered covers have been widely used to minimize water infiltration into landfills used by U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the disposal of radioactive and hazardous chemical waste. The degradation of engineered covers over time is a complex process that is influenced by site specific characteristics, the structure and dynamics of the indigenous plant community, and the interplay of physical and biological factors at contaminated sites. It is necessary to develop a rigorous method to evaluate long-term performance of covers and other engineered barriers with quantification of risk and uncertainty. Because many of the contaminants of concern are long-lived, this methodology must consider changes in the environmental setting (e.g., precipitation, temperature) and cover components for long time periods (>100 years). Current monitoring approaches focus solely on hydrologic properties of the cover system. Additionally, cover design guidelines, such as those from RCRA, are not performance based and do not consider long-term site-specific influences such as climate, vegetation, and soils. Fundamental ecological processes such as succession are not even factored into current models, yet they directly affect the integrity of landfill covers through biointrusion, erosion, and water balance. Therefore, it is useful to identify ecological parameters and processes most important to performance for prioritization of site characterization and long-term monitoring activities. This investigation into the role of ecological monitoring of isolation containment systems utilizes the software platform GoldSim to identify important parameters and processes for performance verification and monitoring. (authors)

Does hospital readmission following colorectal cancer resection and enhanced recovery after surgery affect long term survival?

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, N J; Noble, E; Salib, E; Hipkiss, R; Meachim, E; Dalton, R; Allison, A; Ockrim, J; Francis, N K

2017-08-01

Hospital readmission is undesirable for patients and care providers as this can affect short-term recovery and carries financial consequences. It is unknown if readmission has long-term implications. We aimed to investigate the impact of 30-day readmission on long-term overall survival (OS) following colorectal cancer resection within enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) care and explore the reasons for and the severity and details of readmission episodes. A dedicated, prospectively populated database was reviewed. All patients were managed within an established ERAS programme. Five-year OS was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The number, reason for and severity of 30-day readmissions were classified according to the Clavien-Dindo (CD) system, along with total (initial and readmission) length of stay (LoS). Multivariate analysis was used to identify factors predicting readmission. A total of 1023 consecutive patients underwent colorectal cancer resection between 2002 and 2015. Of these, 166 (16%) were readmitted. Readmission alone did not have a significant impact on 5-year OS (59% vs 70%, P = 0.092), but OS was worse in patients with longer total LoS (20 vs 14 days, P = 0.04). Of the readmissions, 121 (73%) were minor (CD I-II) and 27 (16%) required an intervention of which 16 (10%) were returned to theatre. Gut dysfunction 32 (19%) and wound complications 23 (14%) were the most frequent reasons for readmission. Prolonged initial LoS, rectal cancer and younger age predicted for hospital readmission. Readmission does not have a significant impact on 5-year OS. A broad range of conditions led to readmission, with the majority representing minor complications. Colorectal Disease © 2017 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Long-term outcome of Tunisian children with primary ciliary ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective: To study the long-term outcome of PCD in Tunisian children with ciliary ultra-structure defects detected by electron .... The middle lobe was as much affected as the right up- .... distress syndrome (ARDS) after one and four years of.

Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellia-Hervy, A.; Ducamp, F.

1987-11-01

Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

A United States perspective on long term management of areas contaminated with radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, C.R.

2003-01-01

Full text: The United States has far-reaching experience in the long-term management of areas contaminated with radioactive materials. The events resulting from the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons in the Marshall Islands, follow-up from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, accidents, and the environmental cleanup of our weapons complex have resulted in an extensive body of lessons learned and best practices. The lack of trust created in the affected population, regardless of cause of the spread of radioactive material, creates the working environment for long-term management of the situation. The extent of advanced planning for such an event will define and bound your ultimate success in reaching a conclusion acceptable to the affected parties. The two key issues to be addressed in the long-term management of areas contaminated with radioactive materials are the two 'T's' - technical and trust. The technical issues to be resolved include: access to the affected area; infrastructure to support operations; local and imported staffing; health care for the affected population; and payment to name a few. In addressing the issue of trust it is critical to establish open, honest and inclusive communications and decision making with the affected population and stakeholders, with clear roles and responsibilities defined. Actions must be sensitive to local cultural issues and agreements reached with affected populations prior to actions being taken. Establishment of an alternative views resolution process helps build trust and allow actions to taken. Government to government relations and agreements must be established with an acceptance and understanding of the long term investment in time and resources needed. Planning ahead for such an eventuality and putting in place procedures, agreements and resources needed to address the technical and trust issues associated with the long-term management of areas contaminated with radioactive materials enhances success. (author)

An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Liu, Pei; Georgiadis, Michael C.

2015-01-01

The power sector faces a rapid transformation worldwide from a dominant fossil-fueled towards a low carbon electricity generation mix. Renewable energy technologies (RES) are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix, in particular in regions that have put in place policies and measures to promote their utilization. This paper presents an optimization-based approach to address the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem of a large-scale, central power system in a highly uncertain and volatile electricity industry environment. A multi-regional, multi-period linear mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented, combining optimization techniques with a Monte Carlo (MCA) method and demand response concepts. The optimization goal concerns the minimization of the total discounted cost by determining optimal power capacity additions per time interval and region, and the power generation mix per technology and time period. The model is evaluated on the Greek power system (GPS), taking also into consideration the scheduled interconnection of the mainland power system with those of selected autonomous islands (Cyclades and Crete), and aims at providing full insight into the composition of the long-term energy roadmap at a national level. - Highlights: • A spatial, multi-period, long-term generation expansion planning model is presented. • A Monte-Carlo method along with a demand response mechanism are incorporated. • Autonomous power systems interconnection is considered. • Electricity and CO 2 emission trade are taken into account. • Lignite, natural gas and wind power comprise the dominant power technologies

Improving simulated long-term responses of vegetation to temperature and precipitation extremes using the ACME land model

Science.gov (United States)

Ricciuto, D. M.; Warren, J.; Guha, A.

2017-12-01

While carbon and energy fluxes in current Earth system models generally have reasonable instantaneous responses to extreme temperature and precipitation events, they often do not adequately represent the long-term impacts of these events. For example, simulated net primary productivity (NPP) may decrease during an extreme heat wave or drought, but may recover rapidly to pre-event levels following the conclusion of the extreme event. However, field measurements indicate that long-lasting damage to leaves and other plant components often occur, potentially affecting the carbon and energy balance for months after the extreme event. The duration and frequency of such extreme conditions is likely to shift in the future, and therefore it is critical for Earth system models to better represent these processes for more accurate predictions of future vegetation productivity and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we modify the structure of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) land surface model to represent long-term impacts and test the improved model against observations from experiments that applied extreme conditions in growth chambers. Additionally, we test the model against eddy covariance measurements that followed extreme conditions at selected locations in North America, and against satellite-measured vegetation indices following regional extreme events.

Short-term versus long-term market opportunities and financial constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrari, Angelo

1999-01-01

This presentation discusses gas developments in Europe, the European Gas Directive, short term vs. long term, and Snam's new challenges. The European gas market is characterized by (1) The role of gas in meeting the demand for energy, which varies greatly from one country to another, (2) A growing market, (3) Decreasing role of domestic production, and (4) Increasing imports. Within the European Union, the Gas Directive aims to transform single national markets into one integrated European market by introducing third party access to the network for eligible clients as a means of increasing the competition between operators. The Gas Directive would appear to modify the form of the market rather than its size, and in particular the sharing of responsibility and risk among operators. The market in the future will offer operators the possibility to exploit opportunities deriving mainly from demands for increased flexibility. Opportunities linked to entrepreneurial initiatives require long-term investments characteristic of the gas business. Risks and opportunities must be balanced evenly between different operators. If everyone takes on their own risks and responsibilities, this means a wider distribution of the risks of long-term vs. short-term, currently borne by the gas companies that are integrated, into a market that tends to favour the short-term. A gradual liberalization process should allow incumbent operators to gradually diversify their activities in new gas market areas or enter new business activities. They could move beyond their local and European boundaries in pursuit of an international dimension. The market will have to make the transition from the national to the European dimension: as an example, Snam covers 90% of the Italian market, but its share of an integrated European market will be about 15%

Long-term surveillance plan for the Mexican Hat Disposal Site, Mexican Hat, Utah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-02-01

This plan describes the long-term surveillance activities for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project disposal site at Mexican Hat, Utah. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will carry out these activities to ensure that the disposal site continues to function as designed. This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive material (RRM). This LTSP (based on the DOE's Guidance for Implementing the UMTRA Project Long-term Surveillance Program), documents the land ownership interests and details how the long-term care of the disposal site will be accomplished

Analysis on long-term change of energy system structure in Japan considering CO2 emission and domestic demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurokawa, Shingo; Tabe, Yutaka; Chikahisa, Takemi

2011-01-01

Long-term change of energy system structure in Japan was analyzed to investigate the effect of the CO 2 emission reduction level on the reduction cost using MARKAL model. The MARKAL is composed of energy resources, energy supply technologies, energy ultimate demand technologies and energy service demands with them connected by energy carriers. This paper presents analyses investigating the CO 2 reduction cost and the energy structure change until 2050. Here, we focused on the domestic investment to reduce CO 2 emission. It was shown that the CO 2 reduction until 40% level promotes the energy conversion from coal to natural gas and it causes the increase in total cost of the imported fuel. The higher CO 2 reduction, however, increases the domestic investment for low-emission vehicles, photovoltaic power generation and so on, and decreases the overseas investment, although the total CO 2 reduction cost is increased. This contributes to the revitalization of Japanese economy, together with the reduction of overseas investment. (author)

Independence of long-term contextual memory and short-term perceptual hypotheses: Evidence from contextual cueing of interrupted search.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlagbauer, Bernhard; Mink, Maurice; Müller, Hermann J; Geyer, Thomas

2017-02-01

Observers are able to resume an interrupted search trial faster relative to responding to a new, unseen display. This finding of rapid resumption is attributed to short-term perceptual hypotheses generated on the current look and confirmed upon subsequent looks at the same display. It has been suggested that the contents of perceptual hypotheses are similar to those of other forms of memory acquired long-term through repeated exposure to the same search displays over the course of several trials, that is, the memory supporting "contextual cueing." In three experiments, we investigated the relationship between short-term perceptual hypotheses and long-term contextual memory. The results indicated that long-term, contextual memory of repeated displays neither affected the generation nor the confirmation of short-term perceptual hypotheses for these displays. Furthermore, the analysis of eye movements suggests that long-term memory provides an initial benefit in guiding attention to the target, whereas in subsequent looks guidance is entirely based on short-term perceptual hypotheses. Overall, the results reveal a picture of both long- and short-term memory contributing to reliable performance gains in interrupted search, while exerting their effects in an independent manner.

Long-term surveillance plan for the Ambrosia Lake, New Mexico disposal site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-11-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Ambrosia Lake disposal site in McKinley County, New Mexico, describes the US Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the disposal site. The DOE will carry out this program to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This LTSP was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive materials

Local Government Implementation of Long-Term Stewardship at Two DOE Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Pendergrass; Roman Czebiniak; Kelly Mott; Seth Kirshenberg; Audrey Eidelman; Zachary Lamb; Erica Pencak; Wendy Sandoz

2003-08-13

The Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleaning up the radioactive and chemical contamination that resulted from the production of nuclear weapons. At more than one hundred sites throughout the country DOE will leave some contamination in place after the cleanup is complete. In order to protect human health and the environment from the remaining contamination DOE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), state environmental regulatory agencies, local governments, citizens and other entities will need to undertake long-term stewardship of such sites. Long-term stewardship includes a wide range of actions needed to protect human health in the environment for as long as the risk from the contamination remains above acceptable levels, such as barriers, caps, and other engineering controls and land use controls, signs, notices, records, and other institutional controls. In this report the Environmental Law Institute (ELI) and the Energy Communities Alliance (ECA) examine how local governments, state environmental agencies, and real property professionals implement long-term stewardship at two DOE facilities, Losa Alamos National Laboratory and Oak Ridge Reservation.

Outlook for world nuclear power generation and long-term energy supply and demand situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuhji

2012-01-01

In this article, the author presents a long-term outlook for the world's nuclear generating capacity, taking into account the nuclear policy changes after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. World primary energy demand will grow from 11.2 billion tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2009 to 17.3 billion toe in 2035. Along with this rapid increase in global energy consumption, the world's nuclear generating capacity will grow from 392 GW in 2010 to 484 GW in 2020 and 574 GW in 2035 in the 'Reference scenario'. Even in the 'Low nuclear scenario', where the maximum impact of Fukushima accident to the nuclear policies of each government is assumed, it will continue to grow in the future, exceeding 500 GW in 2035. In particular, Asian countries such as China and India will lead the growth both in the energy demand and in the nuclear power capacity. Therefore, it is essential to better ensure the safety of nuclear power generation. It is important for technologically developed countries, including Japan, to make active contributions to the establishment of a global nuclear safety control system. On the other hand, energy security and global warming will continue to be major issues, which will make it indispensable to make the best effort to save energy and expand renewable energy utilization. Japan is competitive in energy-saving and environmental conservation technologies, thus further development and utilization of there technologies should be a key option of Japan's growth growth strategy in the future. (author)

Frequent Prescribed Burning as a Long-term Practice in Longleaf Pine Forests Does Not Affect Detrital Chemical Composition.

Science.gov (United States)

Coates, T Adam; Chow, Alex T; Hagan, Donald L; Wang, G Geoff; Bridges, William C; Dozier, James H

2017-09-01

The O horizon, or detrital layer, of forest soils is linked to long-term forest productivity and health. Fuel reduction techniques, such as prescribed fire, can alter the thickness and composition of this essential ecosystem component. Developing an understanding of the changes in the chemical composition of forest detritus due to prescribed fire is essential for forest managers and stakeholders seeking sustainable, resilient, and productive ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated fuel quantity, fuel structure, and detrital chemical composition in longleaf pine ( Miller) forests that have been frequently burned for the last 40 yr at the Tom Yawkey Wildlife Center in Georgetown, SC. Our results suggest that frequent prescribed fire reduces forest fuel quantity ( burned detritus. Our burning activities varied in the short term, consisting of annual dormant, annual growing, and biennial dormant season burns. Seasonal distinctions were present for fuel quantity and vertical fuel structure, but these differences were not noted for the benzene/phenol ratio. These results are significant as more managers consider burning existing longleaf stands while determining effective management practices for longleaf stands yet to be established. Managers of such stands can be confident that frequent, low-intensity, low-severity prescribed burns in longleaf pine forests do little to affect the long-term chemical composition of forest detritus. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Integrated assessment of the health and economic benefits of long-term renewable energy development in China

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, H.; Xie, Y.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Context/Purpose: Power generation from renewable energy (RE) could substitute huge amount of fossil energy in the power sector and have substantial co-benefits of air quality and human health improvement. In 2016, China National Renewable Energy Center (CNREC) released China Renewable Energy Outlook, CREO2016 and CREO2017, towards 2030 and 2050, respectively, in which two scenarios are proposed, namely, a conservative "Stated Policy" scenario and a more ambitious "High RE" scenario. This study, together with CNREC, aims to quantify the health and economic benefits of developing renewable energy at the provincial level in China up to 2030 and 2050. Methods: For this purpose, we developed an integrated approach that combines a power dispatch model at CNREC, an air pollutant emission projection model using energy consumption data from the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model, an air quality model (GEOS-Chem at Harvard), an own-developed health model, and a macro economic model (Computable General Equilibrium model). Results: All together, we attempt to quantify how developing RE could reduce the concentration of PM2.5 and ozone in 30 provinces of China, how the human health could be improved in terms of mortality, morbidity and work hour loss, and what is the economic value of the health improvement in terms of increased GDP and the value of statistical life lost. The results show that developing RE as stated in the CREO2016 could prevent chronic mortality of 286 thousand people in China in 2030 alone, the value of saved statistical life is worthy 1200 billion Yuan, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP. In addition, averagely, due to reduced mortality and improved morbidity each person could work additionally by 1.16 hours per year, this could contribute to an increase of GDP by 0.1% in 2030. The assessment up to 2050 is still underway. Interpretation: The results imply that when the external benefit of renewable energy is taken into account, RE could be

The histone deacetylase HDAC4 regulates long-term memory in Drosophila.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen L Fitzsimons

Full Text Available A growing body of research indicates that pharmacological inhibition of histone deacetylases (HDACs correlates with enhancement of long-term memory and current research is concentrated on determining the roles that individual HDACs play in cognitive function. Here, we investigate the role of HDAC4 in long-term memory formation in Drosophila. We show that overexpression of HDAC4 in the adult mushroom body, an important structure for memory formation, resulted in a specific impairment in long-term courtship memory, but had no affect on short-term memory. Overexpression of an HDAC4 catalytic mutant also abolished LTM, suggesting a mode of action independent of catalytic activity. We found that overexpression of HDAC4 resulted in a redistribution of the transcription factor MEF2 from a relatively uniform distribution through the nucleus into punctate nuclear bodies, where it colocalized with HDAC4. As MEF2 has also been implicated in regulation of long-term memory, these data suggest that the repressive effects of HDAC4 on long-term memory may be through interaction with MEF2. In the same genetic background, we also found that RNAi-mediated knockdown of HDAC4 impairs long-term memory, therefore we demonstrate that HDAC4 is not only a repressor of long-term memory, but also modulates normal memory formation.

LONG-TERM OUTCOMES OF DECEASED DONOR LIVER TRANSPLANTATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. V. Gautier

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Aim of the study was to evaluate patient and graft survival after liver transplantation (LT and to determine if primary disease diagnosis, early graft dysfunction or other factors affect it. Furthermore, we analyzed the reasonsof short-term and long-term deaths or retransplantations.Materials and methods. 192 LTs from donors with brain death were performed from December 2004 until June 2014. Recipient age varied from 5 to 71 years. Most frequent diagnosis was liver cirrhosis (mainly due to hepatitis C, then hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, liver graft dysfunction, etc.Results and discussion. 1-year patient survival is 89.5%, graft survival is 87.7%, 3-year –87% and 84.6%, respectively, and 5-year – 83.5% and 83.0%, respectively. Early mortality (in fi rst 30 days after transplantation was 8%, long-term mortality – 5.9%. Primary non-function graft (PNF was the reason of 66.7% early deaths. In the long term, infections and oncology were the reasons of death with the same frequency – 36.4%. Early graft dysfunction including primary non-function signifi cantly decreases short term survival (p = 0.0002. Nevertheless, in the majority of cases graft function improves and doesn’t affect survival. Donor factors play role in outcomes: early dysfunction is higher (40.6% in extended criteria donor group than in standard donor group (р = 0.0431. PNF has the same trend – 8.5% and 0.0%, respectively, but without signifi cance (р =0.0835. 5-year survival is remarkably lower in HCC group 40.8% (p = 0.003 than in other groups.Conclusion: survival after liver transplantation in our Center is comparable with the results of the world’s centers.

Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

OpenAIRE

Sinha, Sidharth

2014-01-01

Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

Long-term stability of the Clear-PEM detector modules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amaral, Pedro; Bruyndonckx, Peter; Carrico, Bruno; Ferreira, Miguel; Luyten, Joan; Moura, Rui; Ortigao, Catarina; Rodrigues, Pedro; Silva, Jose C. da; Trindade, Andreia; Varela, Joao

2007-01-01

Experimental evaluation of the imaging system Clear-PEM for positron emission mammography, under development within the framework of the crystal clear collaboration at CERN, is presented in terms of its long-term stability. The detector modules and experimental setup are described. Time evolution results of signal yield, energy resolution, depth-of-interaction and inter-channel crosstalk for a reference detector module are reported

Long-term surveillance plan for the Mexican Hat disposal site Mexican Hat, Utah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-06-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Mexican Hat, Utah, disposal site. This LSTP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure the Mexican Hat disposal site performs as designed and is cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. Before each disposal site is licensed for custody and long-term care, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires the DOE to submit such a site-specific LTSP

Long-term surveillance plan for the Mexican Hat disposal site, Mexican Hat, Utah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

This plan describes the long-term surveillance activities for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project disposal site at Mexican Hat, Utah. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will carry out these activities to ensure that the disposal site continues to function as designed. This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive material (RRM). This LTSPC documents the land ownership interests and details how the long-term care of the disposal site will be accomplished

Long-term surveillance plan for the Estes Gulch disposal site near Rifle, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-07-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Estes Gulch disposal site near Rifle, Colorado. This LSTP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure the Estes Gulch disposal site performs as designed and is cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. Before each disposal site is licensed for custody and long-term care, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires the DOE to submit such a site-specific LTSP

Long-term surveillance plan for the Cheney disposal site near Grand Junction, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-07-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Cheney Disposal Site near Grand Junction, Colorado. This LSTP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure the Cheney Disposal Site performs as designed and is cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. Before each disposal site is licensed for custody and long-term care, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires the DOE to submit such a site-specific LTSP

Bottom-Up modeling, a tool for decision support for long-term policy on energy and environment - The TIMES model applied to the energy intensive industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Djemaa, A.

2009-01-01

Among the energy users in France and Europe, some industrial sectors are very important and should have a key role when assessing the final energy demand patterns in the future. The aim of our work is to apply a prospective model for the long range analysis of energy/technology choices in the industrial sector, focussing on the energy-intensive sectors. The modelling tool applied in this study is the TIMES model (family of best known MARKAL model). It is an economic linear programming model generator for local, national or multi regional energy systems, which provides a technology-rich basis for estimating energy dynamics over a long term, multi period time. We illustrate our work with nine energy-intensive industrial sectors: paper, steel, glass, cement, lime, tiles, brick, ceramics and plaster. It includes a detailed description of the processes involved in the production of industrial products, providing typical energy uses in each process step. In our analysis, we identified for each industry, several commercially available state-of-the-art technologies, characterized and chosen by the Model on the basis of cost effectiveness. Furthermore, we calculated potential energy savings, carbon dioxide emissions' reduction and we estimated the energy impact of a technological rupture. This work indicates that there still exists a significant potential for energy savings and carbon dioxide emissions' reduction in all industries. (author)

Effects of Long-Term Ayahuasca Administration on Memory and Anxiety in Rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Favaro, Vanessa Manchim; Yonamine, Maurício; Soares, Juliana Carlota Kramer; Oliveira, Maria Gabriela Menezes

2015-01-01

Ayahuasca is a hallucinogenic beverage that combines the action of the 5-HT2A/2C agonist N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT) from Psychotria viridis with the monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOIs) induced by beta-carbonyls from Banisteriopsis caapi. Previous investigations have highlighted the involvement of ayahuasca with the activation of brain regions known to be involved with episodic memory, contextual associations and emotional processing after ayahuasca ingestion. Moreover long term users show better performance in neuropsychological tests when tested in off-drug condition. This study evaluated the effects of long-term administration of ayahuasca on Morris water maze (MWM), fear conditioning and elevated plus maze (EPM) performance in rats. Behavior tests started 48h after the end of treatment. Freeze-dried ayahuasca doses of 120, 240 and 480 mg/kg were used, with water as the control. Long-term administration consisted of a daily oral dose for 30 days by gavage. The behavioral data indicated that long-term ayahuasca administration did not affect the performance of animals in MWM and EPM tasks. However the dose of 120 mg/kg increased the contextual conditioned fear response for both background and foreground fear conditioning. The tone conditioned response was not affected after long-term administration. In addition, the increase in the contextual fear response was maintained during the repeated sessions several weeks after training. Taken together, these data showed that long-term ayahuasca administration in rats can interfere with the contextual association of emotional events, which is in agreement with the fact that the beverage activates brain areas related to these processes.

Effects of Long-Term Ayahuasca Administration on Memory and Anxiety in Rats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa Manchim Favaro

Full Text Available Ayahuasca is a hallucinogenic beverage that combines the action of the 5-HT2A/2C agonist N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT from Psychotria viridis with the monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOIs induced by beta-carbonyls from Banisteriopsis caapi. Previous investigations have highlighted the involvement of ayahuasca with the activation of brain regions known to be involved with episodic memory, contextual associations and emotional processing after ayahuasca ingestion. Moreover long term users show better performance in neuropsychological tests when tested in off-drug condition. This study evaluated the effects of long-term administration of ayahuasca on Morris water maze (MWM, fear conditioning and elevated plus maze (EPM performance in rats. Behavior tests started 48h after the end of treatment. Freeze-dried ayahuasca doses of 120, 240 and 480 mg/kg were used, with water as the control. Long-term administration consisted of a daily oral dose for 30 days by gavage. The behavioral data indicated that long-term ayahuasca administration did not affect the performance of animals in MWM and EPM tasks. However the dose of 120 mg/kg increased the contextual conditioned fear response for both background and foreground fear conditioning. The tone conditioned response was not affected after long-term administration. In addition, the increase in the contextual fear response was maintained during the repeated sessions several weeks after training. Taken together, these data showed that long-term ayahuasca administration in rats can interfere with the contextual association of emotional events, which is in agreement with the fact that the beverage activates brain areas related to these processes.

Long term steam oxidation of TP 347H FG in power plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansson, Anette Nørgaard; Korcakova, Leona; Hald, John

2005-01-01

The long term oxidation behaviour of TP 347H FG at ultra supercritical steam conditions was assessed by exposing the steel in test superheater loops in a Danish coal-fired power plant. The steamside oxide layer was investigated with scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive Xray diffract......The long term oxidation behaviour of TP 347H FG at ultra supercritical steam conditions was assessed by exposing the steel in test superheater loops in a Danish coal-fired power plant. The steamside oxide layer was investigated with scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive Xray...

Long term outlook for gas supply and demand 2007-2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-05-01

Given the economic crisis and the even greater focus of energy policy in recent years on energy efficiency and renewables, earlier expectations in respect of gas demand have to be lowered. Nonetheless, there are still good prospects for gas expanding its position in the EU energy market in the medium to long term. Environmental friendliness and highly efficient technologies in all areas of energy supply give gas a key role in a realistic EU climate policy, the goals of which cannot be achieved solely through increased use of renewables. Its green qualities make gas attractive in direct utilisation in homes and businesses, in centralised power generation, in local CHP plant (including micro-CHP), and - in some member states - in the transport sector too. The current slump in demand is accompanied by strong supply pressure on European procurement markets. Experts do not predict that the present excess supply situation will continue in the long term. It is expected that imports to Europe will rise in order to compensate for the impending fall in domestic European production and to supply additional gas. The procurement challenge cannot be considered in isolation from global developments. The increasing demand for gas worldwide will intensify the competition for global gas reserves on international markets. The European gas industry emphasises the importance of fostering long-term relationships with major suppliers, transit countries and key partners in the EU as well as with multilateral organisations and structures.

Long term stability of power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

1994-12-31

Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

Long-term surveillance plan for the Ambrosia Lake, New Mexico disposal site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-07-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Ambrosia Lake disposal site in McKinley County, New Mexico, describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the disposal site. The DOE will carry out this program to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This LTSP was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive materials

Energy Sharing and Energy Feedback: Affective and Behavioral Reactions to Communal Energy Displays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leygue, Caroline, E-mail: caroline.leygue@nottingham.ac.uk [Horizon Digital Economy Research, University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom); Ferguson, Eamonn [School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom); Skatova, Anya [Horizon Digital Economy Research, University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom); Spence, Alexa [Horizon Digital Economy Research, University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom); School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom)

2014-07-25

Smart meters and energy displays are being rolled out in many countries to help individuals monitor and reduce their energy usage. However, to date, there is little in depth understanding of how they may change behavior. While there is currently a great deal of technical research into developing smart metering, little research has been conducted on how this affects the energy user. This research addresses this gap and explores the user perspective of energy displays when energy is considered as a shared resource. We report an online experiment conducted across the UK examining affective and behavioral responses to energy sharing situations incorporating different types of energy displays. Reactions differed depending on the type of display. In a situation where one person used more than their fair share of energy, displays showing the average amount of usage in the house were associated with feelings of guilt and fear and a decrease in intention to use energy. Displays that identified the person who overused the resource were associated with anger, and direct sanction intentions on those who were overusing energy. Findings are discussed in terms of the smart meter rollout and the potential utility of detailed energy monitoring technologies for behavior change.

Energy sharing and energy feedback: Affective and behavioral reactions to communal energy displays.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline eLeygue

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Smart meters and energy displays are being rolled out in many countries to help individuals monitor and reduce their energy usage. However, to date there is little in depth understanding of how they may change behavior. While there is currently a great deal of technical research into developing smart metering, little research has been conducted on how this affects the energy user. This research addresses this gap and explores the user perspective of energy displays when energy is considered as a shared resource. We report an online experiment conducted across the UK examining affective and behavioral responses to energy sharing situations incorporating different types of energy displays. Reactions differed depending on the type of display. In a situation where one person used more than their fair share of energy, displays showing the average amount of usage in the house were associated with feelings of guilt and fear and a decrease in intention to use energy. Displays that identified the person who overused the resource were associated with anger, and direct sanction intentions on those who were overusing energy. Findings are discussed in terms of the smart meter rollout and the potential utility of detailed energy monitoring technologies for behavior change.

Energy Sharing and Energy Feedback: Affective and Behavioral Reactions to Communal Energy Displays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leygue, Caroline; Ferguson, Eamonn; Skatova, Anya; Spence, Alexa

2014-01-01

Smart meters and energy displays are being rolled out in many countries to help individuals monitor and reduce their energy usage. However, to date, there is little in depth understanding of how they may change behavior. While there is currently a great deal of technical research into developing smart metering, little research has been conducted on how this affects the energy user. This research addresses this gap and explores the user perspective of energy displays when energy is considered as a shared resource. We report an online experiment conducted across the UK examining affective and behavioral responses to energy sharing situations incorporating different types of energy displays. Reactions differed depending on the type of display. In a situation where one person used more than their fair share of energy, displays showing the average amount of usage in the house were associated with feelings of guilt and fear and a decrease in intention to use energy. Displays that identified the person who overused the resource were associated with anger, and direct sanction intentions on those who were overusing energy. Findings are discussed in terms of the smart meter rollout and the potential utility of detailed energy monitoring technologies for behavior change.

Short- and long-term perinatal outcome in twin pregnancies affected by weight discordance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vedel, Cathrine; Oldenburg, Anna; Worda, Katharina

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to investigate the association between chorionicity-specific intertwin birthweight discordance and adverse outcomes including long-term follow up at 6, 18, and 48-60 months after term via Ages and Stages Questionnaire. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this secondary analysis...... outcomes. Ages and Stages Questionnair scores were compared using the method of generalized estimating equation to account for the correlation within twins. RESULTS: The 75th and 90th percentiles for birthweight discordance were 14.8 and 21.4% for monochorionic and 16.0 and 23.8% for dichorionic twins...

A nonparametric approach for evaluating long-term energy policy scenarios: An application to the Greek energy system

OpenAIRE

Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos; Tzeremes, Panagiotis

2014-01-01

This paper by using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) constructs four different renewable energy scenarios for the Greek transport, energy, and industry sectors. By projecting the demand for renewable energy and the associated resulting carbon dioxide emissions up to the years 2020 and 2030, the paper applies in a second stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluating the Greek renewable energy policy. As a result, it provides a quantitative measure for future renewable e...

Long-term surveillance plan for the Green River, Utah, disposal site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-06-01

The long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Green River, Utah, Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project disposal site describes the surveillance activities for the Green River disposal cell. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will carry out these activities to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This final LTSP was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive materials (RRM). This LTSP documents whether the land and interests are owned by the United States or an Indian tribe and details how the long-term care of the disposal site will be carried out. The Green River, Utah, LTSP is based on the DOE's Guidance for Implementing the UMTRA Project Long-term Surveillance Program (DOE, 1992a)

Measuring Short-term Energy Security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Brochure provides and overview of the analysis and results. Readers interested in an in-depth discussion of methodology are referred to the MOSES Working Paper.

Shifting Global Climate Governance: Creating Long-Term Goals Through UNFCCC Article 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Brian Fisher

2011-12-01

Full Text Available I argue that the long-term risk of global climate change has been mischaracterized as an environmental issue, and therefore, solutions based solely on national emission targets will be ineffective. Thus, this paper argues for establishing long-term goals emphasizing both adaptation and clean energy to generate equitable and effective global climate policy that addresses this fundamental threat. This requires defining and operationalizing the overall objective contained in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A second key aspect to operationalizing Article 2 is to understand those ‘particularly vulnerable’ as declared in the Article and in various climate agreements. Once operationalized, these long-term objectives can be achieved through approaches that emphasize the development of clean energy (and concomitant technology, and adaptation within vulnerable communities in their local context. It necessitates dropping formal mechanisms at the current core of the regime designed to regulate national emissions, and instead build the core of the regime around the ‘stabilization’ of both the climate system through clean energy and vulnerable people through effective adaptation.

The effect of long-term dexfenfluramine treatment on 24-hour energy expenditure in man. A double-blind placebo controlled study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breum, L; Astrup, A; Andersen, T

1990-01-01

In order to investigate the effect of long-term treatment with dexfenfluramine (dF) on 24-hour energy expenditure (EE), 10 obese females were studied in a double-blind design. Shortly before and 4 weeks after cessation of a 13 months treatment period with either dF (30 mg/day) or placebo (PL...... differences. The conclusion is therefore that dF possesses no significant thermogenic effect during long-term administration in human obese subjects.......) the 24-hour EE was measured. The measurements were performed using a 24 m3 direct heat sink calorimeter with continuous real time measurements of evaporative and sensible heat losses. The patients performed a standardized program of exercise, rest and meals. The measurements were performed at 24 degrees...

Long-term surveillance plan for the Shiprock Disposal site, Shiprock, New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

The long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Shiprock, New Mexico, Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project disposal site describes the surveillance activities for the Shiprock disposal cell. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will carry out these activities to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This final LTSP was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive materials (RRM). This LTSP documents the land ownership interests and details how the long-term care of the disposal site will be carried out. It is based on the DOE's Guidance for Implementing the UMTRA Project Long-term Surveillance Program (DOE, 1992a)

A study about the long-term stability of sedimentary rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshino, Naoto; Miyanomae, Shun-ichi; Inoue, Hiroyuki; Nashimoto, Yutaka

2005-02-01

In this paper, following two issues were examined and estimated, (1) the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, (2) the long term estimation of the dynamical behavior considering the condition of Horonobe area. As the study about the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, the thermal factor was focused on and the laboratory tests using test pieces which were sampled in Horonobe area were carried out under the water temperature were 20 degrees and 80 degrees. As a result, the time dependence parameter in variable-compliance-type constitutive-equation could be obtained. And comparison between creep property under 20 degrees and 80 degrees was conducted. In addition, the general properties of sedimentary soft rock under several conditions were identified by the survey of the literature. And the way how to confirm the dynamical properties of sedimentary soft rock with in-situ test were presented. For the study on the short-term and long-term stability of rock surrounding buffer materials, numerical simulations were carried out assuming several conditions. The direction of disposal tunnels and the ratio of rock strength by initial stress were estimated to be the main factor affecting the short-term stability of rock. Time dependency of rock and the stiffness of buffer material were estimated to be the main factor affecting the long-term stability of rock. (author)

Long-term predictions using natural analogues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewing, R.C.

1995-01-01

One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

Storm impacts on a high energy sandy beach system, northwest Ireland: short (event) to long term (decadal) behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew; O'Connor, Marianne

2017-04-01

Long-term monitoring of beach dynamics is an important element in risk prevention and management of both natural and human resources at the coast. The predicted intensification in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude), partly associated with climate change, represents a pressing concern for coastal communities globally and has undoubtedly led to an improvement in available techniques and technologies for observation and analysis. Here we examine a high energy Atlantic beach system at Five Fingers strand (NW Ireland) to help understand hydrodynamic forcing on beach response under various wave energy scenarios. The system, which has been modally attuned to a large swell wave environment, periodically undergoes significant morphological changes over various spatial and temporal scales manifest in the development and movements of dynamic nearshore bars and a nearshore ebb-tide delta. A combination of field and laboratory techniques (GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) Instrumentation, Drone surveys) implemented from the shoreface to the beach, captures the response and evolution of the system over the short (event), medium (weeks to months) and long-term (multiyear) timescale. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave hydrodynamics (using SWAN wave simulation model) helps understanding wave forcing across shoreface area and is ran under a number of iterative time intervals. Here, we investigate the role of infrequent and sometimes extreme events in the system to understand the importance of clustering of storminess and the occurrence of single high-magnitude storm events that perturb the inlet-beach system and thus induce key morphodynamic changes. Preliminary results show that ultimately the configuration of the ebb-tide channel influences the geomorphic response of the system. In the short term, a storm induced erosion of the shoreface is observed, which also appears to lead to changes in the ebb-tide channel, and ultimately the welding of a nearshore bar

Long-term nitrogen addition affects the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial community responding to moisture pulse.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chi; Yao, Minjie; Stegen, James C; Rui, Junpeng; Li, Jiabao; Li, Xiangzhen

2017-12-13

How press disturbance (long-term) influences the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial communities responding to pulse disturbances (short-term) is not fully known. Understanding the complex connections between the history of environmental conditions, assembly processes and microbial community dynamics is necessary to predict microbial response to perturbation. We started by investigating phylogenetic spatial turnover (based on DNA) of soil prokaryotic communities after long-term nitrogen (N) deposition and temporal turnover (based on RNA) of communities responding to pulse by conducting short-term rewetting experiments. The results showed that moderate N addition increased ecological stochasticity and phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, high N addition slightly increased homogeneous selection and decreased phylogenetic diversity. Examining the system with higher phylogenetic resolution revealed a moderate contribution of variable selection across the whole N gradient. The moisture pulse experiment showed that high N soils had higher rates of phylogenetic turnover across short phylogenetic distances and significant changes in community compositions through time. Long-term N input history influenced spatial turnover of microbial communities, but the dominant community assembly mechanisms differed across different N deposition gradients. We further revealed an interaction between press and pulse disturbances whereby deterministic processes were particularly important following pulse disturbances in high N soils.

Barrier analogs: Long-term performance issues, preliminary studies, and recommendations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waugh, W.J. [Rust Geotech, Inc., Grand Junction, CO (United States). Environmental Sciences Lab.; Chatters, J.C.; Last, G.V.; Bjornstad, B.N.; Link, S.O. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Hunter, C.R. [Cascade Earth Sciences, La Grande, OR (United States)

1994-02-01

The US Department of Energy`s Hanford Protective Barrier Development Program is funding studies of natural analogs of the long-term performance of waste site covers. Natural-analog studies examine past environments as evidence for projecting the future performance of engineered structures. The information generated by analog studies is needed to (1) evaluate the designs and results of short term experiments and demonstrations, (2) formulate performance-modeling problems that bound expected changes in waste site environments, and (3) understand emergent system attributes that cannot be evaluated with short-term experiments or computer models. Waste site covers will be part of dynamic environmental systems with attributes that transcend the traits of engineered components. This report discusses results of the previously unreported preliminary studies conducted in 1983 and 1984. These results indicate that analogs could play an important role in predicting the long-term behavior of engineered waste covers. Layered exposures of glacial-flood-deposited gravels mantled with silt or sand that resemble contemporary barrier designs were examined. Bergmounds, another anomaly left by cataclysmic glacial floods, were also examined as analogs of surface gravel.

Comparative assessment of different energy sources and their potential role in long-term sustainable energy mix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kagramanian, V.S.

2001-01-01

In the debate on sustainable energy future, the role of nuclear power is a contentious issue. Many, who are outside of the nuclear community, do not even consider nuclear, because of public concerns on nuclear safety, radioactive waste and non-proliferation issues. For example, the United Nations Development Program, in its document Energy After Rio does not suggest a specific role for nuclear power except in the most doubtful of terms. On the contrary, most nuclear organisations and related industries see nuclear power as the only mature carbon-free electricity generating option that can be deployed even on a much larger scale than today. This paper analyses the potential role of nuclear power in the context of the global sustainable energy future. The fundamental features of sustainable energy development are examined in terms of the following compatibility constraints: Demand driven compatibility; Natural resource compatibility; Environmental compatibility; Geopolitical compatibility; and Economic compatibility

Factors affecting long-term mortality of residential shade trees: evidence from Sacramento, California

Science.gov (United States)

Yekang Ko; Jun-Hak Lee; E. Gregory McPherson; Lara A. Roman

2015-01-01

Urban tree survival is essential to sustain the ecosystem services of urban forests and monitoring is needed to accurately assess benefits. While some urban forestry studies have reported street tree survival, little is known about the factors influencing residential yard tree survival, especially over the long-term. We assessed residential shade tree survival in...

Long-term care financing: lessons from France.

Science.gov (United States)

Doty, Pamela; Nadash, Pamela; Racco, Nathalie

2015-06-01

POLICY POINTS: France's model of third-party coverage for long-term services and supports (LTSS) combines a steeply income-adjusted universal public program for people 60 or older with voluntary supplemental private insurance. French and US policies differ: the former pay cash; premiums are lower; and take-up rates are higher, in part because employer sponsorship, with and without subsidization, is more common-but also because coverage targets higher levels of need and pays a smaller proportion of costs. Such inexpensive, bare-bones private coverage, especially if marketed as a supplement to a limited public benefit, would be more affordable to those Americans currently most at risk of "spending down" to Medicaid. An aging population leads to a growing demand for long-term services and supports (LTSS). In 2002, France introduced universal, income-adjusted, public long-term care coverage for adults 60 and older, whereas the United States funds means-tested benefits only. Both countries have private long-term care insurance (LTCI) markets: American policies create alternatives to out-of-pocket spending and protect purchasers from relying on Medicaid. Sales, however, have stagnated, and the market's viability is uncertain. In France, private LTCI supplements public coverage, and sales are growing, although its potential to alleviate the long-term care financing problem is unclear. We explore whether France's very different approach to structuring public and private financing for long-term care could inform the United States' long-term care financing reform efforts. We consulted insurance experts and conducted a detailed review of public reports, academic studies, and other documents to understand the public and private LTCI systems in France, their advantages and disadvantages, and the factors affecting their development. France provides universal public coverage for paid assistance with functional dependency for people 60 and older. Benefits are steeply income

Going Solar Yields Long-Term Economical, Educational Benefits

Science.gov (United States)

von Moos, Brian

2009-01-01

Going solar is not an easy decision, but a long-term investment with a potentially substantial up-front cost. While some schools have enough capital in reserve, can raise bond money, or can solicit sufficient donations, many schools rely on creative financial programs to make a solar energy system economically feasible. Thinking about going solar…

Long-term energy output estimation for photovoltaic energy systems using synthetic solar irradiation data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Celik, A.N.

2003-01-01

A general methodology is presented to estimate the monthly average daily energy output from photovoltaic energy systems. Energy output is estimated from synthetically generated solar radiation data. The synthetic solar radiation data are generated based on the cumulative frequency distribution of the daily clearness index, given as a function of the monthly clearness index. Two sets of synthetic solar irradiation data are generated: 3- and 4-day months. In the 3-day month, each month is represented by 3 days and in the 4-day month, by 4 days. The 3- and 4-day solar irradiation data are synthetically generated for each month and the corresponding energy outputs are calculated. A total of 8-year long measured hourly solar irradiation data, from five different locations in the world, is used to validate the new model. The monthly energy output values calculated from the synthetic solar irradiation data are compared to those calculated from the measured hour-by-hour data. It is shown that when the measured solar radiation data do not exist for a particular location or reduced data set is advantageous, the energy output from photovoltaic converters could be correctly calculated

Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hainoun, A.; Seif-Eldin, M.K.; Almoustafa, S.

2006-01-01

A comprehensive analysis of the possible future long-term development of Syrian energy and electricity demand covering the period 1999-2030 is presented. The analysis was conducted using the IAEA's model MAED, which relies upon the end-use approach. This model has been validated during the last two decades through the successful application in many developing countries, even those having partial market economy and energy subsidy. Starting from the base year, final energy consumption distributed by energy forms and consumption sectors, the future energy and electricity demand has been projected according to three different scenarios reflecting the possible future demographic, socio-economic and technological development of the country. These scenarios are constructed to cover a plausible range, in which future evolution factors affecting energy demand are expected to lie. The first is a high economy scenario (HS) representing the reference case, which is characterized by high gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (average annual about 6%) and moderate improved technologies in the various consumption sectors. The second is an energy efficiency scenario (ES), which is identical to HS in all main parameters except these relating to the efficiency improvement and conservation measures. Here, high technology improvement and more effective conservation measures in all consumption sectors are proposed and the role of solar to substitute fossil energy for heating purposes is considered effectively. The third is a low economy scenario (LS) with low GDP growth rate (average annual about 3.5%) and less technology improvement in the consumption sectors. As a consequence, the improvement in the energy efficiency is low and the influence of conservation measures is less effective. Starting from about 10.5mtoe final energy in the base year, the analysis shows that the projected energy demand will grow annually at average rates of 5%, 4.5% and 3% for the HS, ES and LS

Modulation of working memory updating: Does long-term memory lexical association matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Artuso, Caterina; Palladino, Paola

2016-02-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate how working memory updating for verbal material is modulated by enduring properties of long-term memory. Two coexisting perspectives that account for the relation between long-term representation and short-term performance were addressed. First, evidence suggests that performance is more closely linked to lexical properties, that is, co-occurrences within the language. Conversely, other evidence suggests that performance is linked more to long-term representations which do not entail lexical/linguistic representations. Our aim was to investigate how these two kinds of long-term memory associations (i.e., lexical or nonlexical) modulate ongoing working memory activity. Therefore, we manipulated (between participants) the strength of the association in letters based on either frequency of co-occurrences (lexical) or contiguity along the sequence of the alphabet (nonlexical). Results showed a cost in working memory updating for strongly lexically associated stimuli only. Our findings advance knowledge of how lexical long-term memory associations between consonants affect working memory updating and, in turn, contribute to the study of factors which impact the updating process across memory systems.

Long Term Fuel Sustainable Fission Energy Perspective Relevant for Combating Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knapp, V.; Matijevic, M.; Pevec, D.; Crnobrnja, B.; Lale, D.

2016-01-01

In recent research we outlined climate relevant and immediately available proven light water nuclear strategy with a potential to contribute essentially and timely to reduction of carbon dioxide emission to the year 2065. We consider in this paper what is the perspective of fission energy after that year should its contribution be needed. Singling out two technologies with long term perspective which need no or small amounts of uranium, fast breeders and molten salt thorium reactors, we consider their main technical and safety characteristics. In both of these technologies it is essential to have starter nuclides as neither U238 nor Th232 are fissile. We investigated whether plutonium from spent fuel of light water reactors generated to the year 2065 would be present in quantities sufficient to continue operation on the same or similar level in both technologies. However in operational safety, proliferation risks, waste production, in our judgement we must give preference to thorium technology, if it would be ready in second half of the century.(author).

Long-term urethral catheterisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

Strategic Planning and the Long-term R&D Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooley, J.

2015-01-01

The Department of Safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency implements a structured strategic planning process to ensure that safeguards will continue to be both effective and efficient in the future. This process provides the Department with a comprehensive and coherent planning framework for the short (2 years), medium (6 years) and long (12 years) term. The Department's suite of planning documents includes a long-term strategic plan and an associated long-term research and development plan as well as a biennial development and implementation support programme. The Department's Long-Term Strategic Plan 2012-2023 addresses the conceptual framework for safeguards implementation, legal authority, technical capabilities (expertise, equipment and infrastructure) and the human and financial resources necessary for Agency verification activities. As research and development (R&D) are essential to meet the safeguards needs of the future, the Department-s Long-Term R&D Plan 2012-2023 is designed to support the Long-Term Strategic Plan 2012-2023 by setting out the capabilities that the Department needs to achieve its strategic objectives, and key milestones towards achieving those capabilities for which Member State R&D support is needed. The Long-Term R&D Plan 2012-2023 addresses the Department's R&D requirements in areas such as safeguards concepts and approaches; detection of undeclared nuclear material and activities; safeguards equipment and communication; information technology, collection, analysis and security; analytical services; new mandates; and training. Long-term capabilities discussed in the presentation include deployed systems (e.g., equipment at facilities); analytical (e.g., sample analysis), operational (e.g., staff expertise and skills) and readiness (e.g., safeguarding new types of facilities) capabilities. To address near-term development objectives and support the implementation of its verification activities as well as to

Replacing tedium with transformation: Why the US Department of Energy needs to change the way it conducts long-term R and D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sovacool, Benjamin K.

2008-01-01

To avoid promoting technologies that merely produce incremental change, the US Department of Energy needs to establish a new organization designed to focus on transformational R and D projects. From its inception in 1977, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has been responsible for maintaining the nation's nuclear stockpile, leading the country in terms of basic research, setting national energy goals, and managing thousands of individual programs. Despite these responsibilities, however, the DOE research and development (R and D) model does not appear to offer the nation an optimal strategy for assessing long-term energy challenges. American energy policy continues to face constraints related to an overly rigid management structure and loss of mission within the DOE, layers of stove-piping within and between the national laboratories, and inadequate public and private funding for energy R and D. To address these concerns, an independent organization dedicated to transformative, creative energy R and D is required

Long term effects of an energy efficiency advertising campaign

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wortmann, Klaus; Moehring-Hueser, Werner [Energiestiftung Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel (Germany)

2003-07-01

A professional marketing approach should support a transformation of the market towards more energy efficient decisions not only of consumers, but also of retailers and producers. The state-wide energy efficiency advertising campaign 'Aus. Wirklich aus?' (off. really off?) against pointless stand-by consumption took place in Schleswig-Holstein (Northern Germany) from November 2000 until June 2001 followed by reminder ads in autumn 2001 and spring 2002. Extraordinary efforts were undertaken to evaluate the effects of the campaign, because it served as a pilot project for an approach on the national level. Two representative samples of the population and specialist dealers for electrical equipment in two German states (one as 'control group') were interviewed by phone before the launch of the campaign, at the peak of the advertising pressure and one year after. The results are presented with special emphasis on sustainable effects with respect to energy awareness and interest of the consumers as well as on their intention to act and on specific actions like switching the TV (really) off. For most of these criteria long lasting effects could be observed. Also the retailers steadily increased their own (additional) activities to profit from the campaign. The results are discussed with respect to economical cost-benefit-arguments and in the light of psychological theories of information processing in order to describe the essential lessons learned for successful energy efficiency campaigns in the future.

Long-term stability of oxidative stress biomarkers in human serum.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, Eugène H J M; Beekhof, Piet K; Viezeliene, Dale; Muzakova, Vladimira; Skalicky, Jiri

2017-01-01

The storage time and storage temperature might affect stability of oxidative stress biomarkers, therefore, they have to be analyzed after long-term storage of serum samples. The stability of three biomarkers reflecting oxidative stress: reactive oxygen metabolites (ROM) for hydroperoxides, total

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. D. Diamantides

1998-05-01

Full Text Available The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Long-term impacts of battery electric vehicles on the German electricity system

Science.gov (United States)

Heinrichs, H. U.; Jochem, P.

2016-05-01

The emerging market for electric vehicles gives rise to an additional electricity demand. This new electricity demand will affect the electricity system. For quantifying those impacts a model-based approach, which covers long-term time horizons is necessary in order to consider the long lasting investment paths in electricity systems and the market development of electric mobility. Therefore, we apply a bottom-up electricity system model showing a detailed spatial resolution for different development paths of electric mobility in Germany until 2030. This model is based on a linear optimization which minimizes the discounted costs of the electricity system. We observe an increase of electricity exchange between countries and electricity generated by renewable energy sources. One major result turns out to be that electric vehicles can be integrated in the electricity system without increasing the system costs when a controlled (postponing) charging strategy for electric vehicles is applied. The impact on the power plant portfolio is insignificant. Another important side effect of electric vehicles is their substantial contribution to decreasing CO2 emissions of the German transport sector. Hence, electric mobility might be an integral part of a sustainable energy system of tomorrow.

Long-Term Evaluation of SSL Field Performance in Select Interior Projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perrin, Tess E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Davis, Robert G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wilkerson, Andrea M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2017-02-28

This GATEWAY project evaluated four field installations to better understand the long-term performance of a number of LED products, which can hopefully stimulate improvements in designing, manufacturing, specifying, procuring, and installing LED products. Field studies provide the opportunity to discover and investigate issues that cannot be simulated or uncovered in a laboratory, but the installed performance over time of commercially available LED products has not been well documented. Improving long-term performance can provide both direct energy savings by reducing the need to over-light to account for light loss and indirect energy savings through better market penetration due to SSL’s competitive advantages over less-efficient light source technologies. The projects evaluated for this report illustrate that SSL use is often motivated by advantages other than energy savings, including maintenance savings, easier integration with control systems, and improved lighting quality.

Maternal Beliefs as Long-Term Predictors of Mother-Child Interaction and Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Kochanska, Grazyna

1990-01-01

Two kinds of parental beliefs, endorsed rearing philosophy (authoritative-authoritarian dimension) and affective attitude toward child (positive-negative affect dimension), were examined in 20 normal and 36 depressed mothers as long-term predictors of child rearing behaviors and interaction patterns with their children. (BC)

Long-term surveillance plan for the Collins Ranch disposal site, Lakeview, Oregon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-08-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Collins Ranch disposal site, Lakeview, Oregon, describes the surveillance activities for the disposal cell. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will carry out these activities to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This final LTSP was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive materials. This LTSP documents whether the land and interests are owned by the United States and details how long-term care of the disposal site will be carried out. It is based on the DOE's Guidance for Implementing the UMTRA Project Long-term Surveillance Program (DOE, 1992a)

Interim long-term surveillance plan for the Cheney disposal site near, Grand Junction, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-08-01

This interim long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Cheney Disposal Site in Mesa County near Grand Junction, Colorado. This LSTP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure the Cheney disposal site performs as designed and is cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. Before each disposal site is licensed for custody and long-term care, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires the DOE to submit such a site-specific LTSP

The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flynn, W.T.

1986-12-01

This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

Long-term surveillance plan for the Burro Canyon disposal cell Slick Rock, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-08-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Burro Canyon disposal cell in San Miguel County, Colorado. This LSTP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure the Burro Canyon disposal cell performs as designed and is cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. The program is based on site inspections to identify threats to disposal cell integrity. Before each disposal cell is licensed for custody and long-term care, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires the DOE to submit such a site-specific LTSP

Implicit short- and long-term memory direct our gaze in visual search

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kruijne, Wouter; Meeter, Martijn

2016-01-01

Visual attention is strongly affected by the past: both by recent experience and by long-term regularities in the environment that are encoded in and retrieved from memory. In visual search, intertrial repetition of targets causes speeded response times (short-term priming). Similarly, targets that

Interim report on the long-term outlook of energy demands and supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The supply/demand committee on Overall Energy Council has long deliberated on the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and finalized its report, assuming a yearly economic growth of about 5% in 1980s and utmost efforts by both the people and the government: the background and basic ideas to decide the outlook, the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and conclusions. The energy demand for fiscal 1990 is put at 590 million kl (crude oil equivalent) and for fiscal 2000 at 770 million kl with energy saving ratios 15.5% and 25%, respectively. The energy supply by nuclear power for fiscal 1990 is then put at 46,000 MW with 11.3% of the total. In the energy supply outlook for fiscal 1990, the aspects of the economy and stability as well as the quantity of respective energy sources are considered, overall to reduce the reliance on petroleum. (Mori, K.)

Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan for the Gnome-Coach, New Mexico, Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kreie, Ken [USDOE Office of Legacy Management, Grand Junction, CO (United States); Findlay, Rick [Navarro Research and Engineering, Inc., Grand Junction, CO (United States)

2016-06-08

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) prepared this Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan (LTSMP) for the Gnome-Coach, New Mexico, Site (the Gnome site). The Gnome site is approximately 25 miles east of Carlsbad in Eddy County, New Mexico (Figure 1). The site was the location of a 3-kiloton-yield underground nuclear test and radioisotope groundwater tracer test. The tests resulted in residual contamination and post-detonation features that require long-term oversight. Long-term responsibility for the site was transferred from the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office to LM on October 1, 2006. Responsibilities include surveillance, monitoring, and maintenance of institutional controls (ICs) as part of the long-term stewardship of the site. Long-term stewardship is designed to ensure protection of human health and the environment.

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2018-02-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling; Etude de la stabilite thermique du verre nucleaire. Modelisation de son evolution a long terme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orlhac, X

2000-07-01

The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO{sub 4}, CeCO{sub 2}, ZnCr{sub 2}O{sub 4}). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO{sub 2}SiO{sub 2}) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

Spatial frequency discrimination: visual long-term memory or criterion setting?

Science.gov (United States)

Lages, M; Treisman, M

1998-02-01

A long-term sensory memory is believed to account for spatial frequency discrimination when reference and test stimuli are separated by long intervals. We test an alternative proposal: that discrimination is determined by the range of test stimuli, through their entrainment of criterion-setting processes. Experiments 1 and 2 show that the 50% point of the psychometric function is largely determined by the midpoint of the stimulus range, not by the reference stimulus. Experiment 3 shows that discrimination of spatial frequencies is similarly affected by orthogonal contextual stimuli and parallel contextual stimuli and that these effects can be explained by criterion-setting processes. These findings support the hypothesis that discrimination over long intervals is explained by the operation of criterion-setting processes rather than by long-term sensory retention of a neural representation of the stimulus.

Long-Term Information Management (LTIM) of Safeguards Data at Geological Repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haddal, R.; Finch, R.; Baldwin, G.

2016-01-01

Full text: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has noted that long-term information management (LTIM) of safeguards data at geological repositories will be a significant challenge in the future as information and records management systems evolve and permanent disposal of nuclear materials becomes a high-priority in many countries. Identifying approaches to how information on buried high-level nuclear waste will be managed, handled, organized, archived, read, interpreted, and secured for the long-term (1000 years after repository closure and beyond) will be key to safeguards at repositories). The purpose of this study is to explore various long-term information management systems and how they may or may not be adapted for geological repositories for high-level waste. The study will also examine what types of safeguards-related data should be included in such a system. The study will also consider hypotheses about future needs and analyze the pros and cons of very long-term information management. (author

Modelling long term energy consumption of French residential sector - improving behavioral realism and simulating ambitious scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allibe, Benoit

2012-01-01

This thesis aims to integrate components of an economic model of the behaviors of households in a technological model of French residential sector energy consumption dynamics and to analyze the consequences of this integration on the results of long-term residential energy consumption simulations (2030-2050). The results of this work highlight significant differences between the actual household space heating energy consumptions and those estimated by engineering models. These differences are largely due to the elasticity of thermal comfort demand to thermal comfort price. Our improved model makes it possible to conjointly integrate the concepts of price elasticity and rebound effect (the increase in energy service level following an improvement in energy performance of the equipment providing the service) in a daily behavior model. Regarding space heating consumption, the consequences of this behavioral adaptation - combined with some technical defects - are a significant reduction of the technical and behavioral energy saving potentials (while effective daily use of energy is generally lower than predicted by engineering models) at a national level. This implies that mid and long-term national energy policy targets (a 38% drop in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared to the 1990 level) will be harder to reach than previously expected for the residential sector. These results also imply that a strong reduction in carbon emissions cannot be achieved solely through the diffusion of efficient technologies and energy conservation behavior but also requires to significantly lower the average carbon content of residential space heating energy through the generalized use of wood energy. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the influence of the resolution of a techno-economic model (i.e. its ability to represent the various values that a variable can have within the modeled system) on its

Long Term Inactive Well Program requirements : interim directive ID 97-08

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board and the petroleum industry have agreed that industry must take proactive measures to reduce the number of long term inactive wells in Alberta. This interim directive outlines the requirements of the Long Term Inactive Well Program, and provides a schedule for industry to reduce the number of inactive wells. EUB estimates that there are currently 35,000 inactive wells in Alberta, 10,000 of which have been inactive for more than 10 consecutive years. These wells pose a financial risk to the Abandonment Fund which was established to help fund the abandonment of orphan wells. The Long Term Inactive Well Program was created based on the recommendations of a joint government/industry committee, and will operate for five years. 5 tabs

Short- and Long-Term Effects of Adolescent Alcohol Access: Evidence from Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Nilsson, Anton

We exploit changes in minimum legal alcohol purchasing ages in Denmark in order to estimate effects on short- and long-term health outcomes, as well as on human capital formation. Employing a difference-in-differences approach for immediate outcomes and a “regression kink design” for long......-term outcomes, we bring comprehensive evidence on the health and education effects of three reforms, which affected alcohol availability along different dimensions and margins – 1) establishing an off-premise alcohol purchase age of 15 (1998), 2) raising the off-premise alcohol purchase age to 16 (2004), and 3......) increasing the purchase age of beverages exceeding 16.5% in alcohol content from 16 to 18 (2011). Our findings show significant short-term effects of the first and third reforms in terms of reducing injuries and alcohol-related conditions, and some long-term effects of the first reform in terms of reducing...

Does energy consumption by the US electric power sector exhibit long memory behavior?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Loomis, David; Payne, James E.

2010-01-01

This study analyzes energy consumption by the US electric power by various energy sources through fractional integration. In doing so, we are able to determine the level of persistence of the shocks affecting each energy source. The results indicate long memory behavior as each energy source is highly persistent, displaying long memory along with autoregressive behavior and strong seasonal patterns.

Long-term outcomes of unilateral transtibial amputations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimzadeh, Mohamad H; Hariri, Sanaz

2009-06-01

the long-term outcomes of wartime transtibial amputations have not been well documented. The purpose of this case series is to present the long-term functional, social, and psychological outcomes of modern-day military unilateral transtibial amputees. the Iranian Veterans Administration of the Khorasan province invited their Iranian military amputees from the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) to its medical center for evaluation. The patients filled out a detailed questionnaire and were interviewed and examined by each team member. two hundred (77%) of the 260 invited amputees were willing and able to come back for follow-up. Ninety-six of these patients (48%) were unilateral transtibial amputation. The average follow-up was 17.4 years (range 15-22 years). Land mines were the leading cause of war injury necessitating a transtibial amputation (68%). The most common symptoms about their amputated limbs were phantom sensations (54%), phantom pain (17%), and stump pain (42%). Lower back pain, contralateral (nonamputated limb) knee pain, and ipsilateral (amputated limb) knee pain were reported by 44%, 38%, and 13% of subjects, respectively. Sixty-five percent of patients were employed or had been employed for multiple years after their war injury. All patients were married, and 97% had children. Fifty-four percent of amputees reported psychological problems; 26% were currently utilizing psychological support services. at long-term follow-up, most military transtibial amputees experienced phantom sensation or some type of stump pain. More than half had persistent psychiatric problems, but only about half of these patients were receiving psychological treatment. Although this case series reports the status of these amputees, the next step would be to prospectively follow modern wartime amputees using standardized, validated outcome measures. With the goal of optimizing long-term amputee outcomes, researchers should correlate outcomes with demographics, injury characteristics, and

Long-term exports and use of interconnections: Development plan 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The orientations, objectives, and strategies proposed for long-term exports of electricity from Quebec are presented, as well as the use of interconnections between Hydro-Quebec and northeastern US utilities. A recent historical overview shows that after a period of exporting large amounts of surplus energy in the late 1980s, most export sales are of firm power and energy. Export commitments signed for 1993-2000 amount to total exports of 11-14 TWh per year with revenues generated to be at least $4 billion. Hydro-Quebec originally had an export strategy with a target of 3,500 MW of firm power and energy exports by the year 2000. An economic recession, lower demand for power in the USA, new planning policies at US utilities emphasizing maximum flexibility, and competition from other electricity providers have revised this estimate downward. Over the short and medium term, neighboring US utilities will experience surpluses in both capacity and energy, and additional requirements indicated by their demand forecasts only appear after the year 2000. The situation is similar for neighboring Canadian utilities. In the long term, Hydro-Quebec's objective is to meet 15-20% of new requirements on neighboring US systems. New agreements could represent 1,500 MW by the year 2004, or ca 8.5 TWh/y. Hydro-Quebec also wants to be recognized as an active partner in the market for short-term transactions and to maximize use of its generation and interconnection facilities. The utility will examine transactions such as guaranteeing reserve capacity, energy banking, wheeling service, and pooling of generating capacities in order to offer the products best suited to customer needs. 3 figs., 3 tabs

Long-term surveillance plan for the Maybell, Colorado Disposal Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) describes the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Maybell disposal site in Moffat County, Colorado. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed regulations for the issuance of a general license for the custody and long-term care of UMTRA Project disposal sites in 10 CFR Part 40. The purpose of this general license is to ensure that the UMTRA Project disposal sites are cared for in a manner that protects the public health and safety and the environment. Before each disposal site is licensed, the NRC requires the DOE to submit a site-specific LTSP. The DOE prepared this LTSP to meet this requirement for the Maybell disposal site. The general license becomes effective when the NRC concurs with the DOE's determination that remedial action is complete for the Maybell site and the NRC formally accepts this LTSP. This document describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure the Maybell disposal site performs as designed. The program is based on site inspections to identify threats to disposal cell integrity. The LTSP is based on the UMTRA Project long-term surveillance program guidance document and meets the requirements of 10 CFR section 40.27(b) and 40 CFR section 192.03

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. D. Diamantides

Full Text Available The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.

Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

A role for glucocorticoids in the long-term establishment of a social hierarchy.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmer, Marjan; Sandi, Carmen

2010-11-01

Stress can affect the establishment and maintenance of social hierarchies. In the present study, we investigated the role of increasing corticosterone levels before or just after a first social encounter between two rats of a dyad in the establishment and the long-term maintenance of a social hierarchy. We show that pre-social encounter corticosterone treatment does not affect the outcome of the hierarchy during a first encounter, but induces a long-term memory for the hierarchy when the corticosterone-injected rat becomes dominant during the encounter, but not when it becomes subordinate. Post-social encounter corticosterone leads to a long-term maintenance of the hierarchy only when the subordinate rat of the dyad is injected with corticosterone. This corticosterone effect mimics previously reported actions of stress on the same model and, hence, implicates glucocorticoids in the consolidation of the memory for a recently established hierarchy. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land-atmosphere coupling and soil moisture memory contribute to long-term agricultural drought

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Newman, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Livneh, B.; Lombardozzi, D. L.

2017-12-01

We assessed the contribution of land-atmosphere coupling and soil moisture memory on long-term agricultural droughts in the US. We performed an ensemble of climate model simulations to study soil moisture dynamics under two atmospheric forcing scenarios: active and muted land-atmosphere coupling. Land-atmosphere coupling contributes to a 12% increase and 36% decrease in the decorrelation time scale of soil moisture anomalies in the US Great Plains and the Southwest, respectively. These differences in soil moisture memory affect the length and severity of modeled drought. Consequently, long-term droughts are 10% longer and 3% more severe in the Great Plains, and 15% shorter and 21% less severe in the Southwest. An analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project phase 5 data shows four fold uncertainty in soil moisture memory across models that strongly affects simulated long-term droughts and is potentially attributable to the differences in soil water storage capacity across models.

How long is long-term? reflections based on over 20 years of post-Chernobyl management in Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liland, Astrid; Lochard, Jacques; Skuterud, Lavrans

2009-01-01

The radiation protection community has only recently started the important work of preparedness for long-term post-accidental management of radioactively contaminated areas, like for instance the EC projects STRATEGY, FARMING and EURANOS and the French authorities' CODIRPA and PAREX programmes. There are, however, different views concerning how long a long-term management might last. Based on the Norwegian and former Soviet Union experience after the Chernobyl accident, it is clear that a nuclear accident can entail decades of necessary management and rehabilitation of living conditions. The time period is dependent on a number of factors, e.g. amount of fallout, type of radionuclides, land use of contaminated area, number and density of people affected and available techniques and resources for implementing countermeasures. This paper discusses the management strategy implemented in Norway after the Chernobyl accident, the need for changing strategy over time and the important involvement of affected groups. Careful planning and reflections should be undertaken before actions are taken in the recovery phase, keeping in mind the possibility of decades with problems.

How long is long-term? reflections based on over 20 years of post-Chernobyl management in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liland, Astrid [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, 1332 Osteras (Norway)], E-mail: astrid.liland@nrpa.no; Lochard, Jacques [CEPN - Nuclear Protection Evaluation Centre, 28 rue de la Redoute, 92260 Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Skuterud, Lavrans [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, 1332 Osteras (Norway); Norwegian Reindeer Husbandry Authority, P.O. Box 121, 7361 Roros (Norway)

2009-07-15

The radiation protection community has only recently started the important work of preparedness for long-term post-accidental management of radioactively contaminated areas, like for instance the EC projects STRATEGY, FARMING and EURANOS and the French authorities' CODIRPA and PAREX programmes. There are, however, different views concerning how long a long-term management might last. Based on the Norwegian and former Soviet Union experience after the Chernobyl accident, it is clear that a nuclear accident can entail decades of necessary management and rehabilitation of living conditions. The time period is dependent on a number of factors, e.g. amount of fallout, type of radionuclides, land use of contaminated area, number and density of people affected and available techniques and resources for implementing countermeasures. This paper discusses the management strategy implemented in Norway after the Chernobyl accident, the need for changing strategy over time and the important involvement of affected groups. Careful planning and reflections should be undertaken before actions are taken in the recovery phase, keeping in mind the possibility of decades with problems.

Does Shortened Application Time Affect Long-Term Bond Strength of Universal Adhesives to Dentin?

Science.gov (United States)

Saikaew, P; Matsumoto, M; Chowdhury, Afma; Carvalho, R M; Sano, H

2018-04-09

This study evaluated the effect of shortened application time on long-term bond strength with universal adhesives. Three universal adhesives were used: Clearfil Universal Bond (CU, Kuraray Noritake Dental Inc, Tokyo, Japan), Scotchbond Universal Adhesive (SB, 3M ESPE, St Paul, MN, USA) or G-Premio Bond (GP, GC Corp, Tokyo, Japan). Sixty molars were cut to expose midcoronal dentin and prepared with a regular diamond bur. Each adhesive was applied either according to the manufacturer's instruction or with shortened time. Specimens were stored in distilled water at 37°C for 24 hours and then cut into resin-dentin sticks. Microtensile bond strength (μTBS) was tested after either 24 hours or 1 year of water storage. Data were analyzed by the three-way ANOVA and Duncan tests ( α=0.05). Fracture modes were analyzed under a scanning electron microscope (SEM). One dentin stick per group was selected after fracture mode analysis and further observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Six additional dentin discs were prepared and conditioned with each adhesive under the different application time to observe the adhesive-smear layer interaction by SEM. Shortened application time affected the μTBS ( puniversal adhesives to bur-cut dentin. The performance of universal adhesives can be compromised when applied using a shortened application time.

Long-term training modifies the modular structure and organization of walking balance control

OpenAIRE

Sawers, Andrew; Allen, Jessica L.; Ting, Lena H.

2015-01-01

How does long-term training affect the neural control of movements? Here we tested the hypothesis that long-term training leading to skilled motor performance alters muscle coordination during challenging, as well as nominal everyday motor behaviors. Using motor module (a.k.a., muscle synergy) analyses, we identified differences in muscle coordination patterns between professionally trained ballet dancers (experts) and untrained novices that accompanied differences in walking balance proficie...

Proceedings of the 13th forum: Croatian Energy Day: Long-term planning and consumer supply safety in open market conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granic, G.; Jelavic, B.

2004-01-01

The process of opening up the energy market has been proceeding at an accelerating pace; legislative and institutional prerequisites have come into existence for a transparent and nondiscriminatory approach to energy systems (networks), and for an easy market access to suppliers by granting customers the right of supplier choice. National borders - once an obstacle to energy market development - are thus eliminated. Advantages of this sort of development strategy for energy markets include top-quality competition and market de-monopolization, which in turn, as a rule, imply a more favorable position for the users of energy system services, for energy buyers / purchasers, and for consumers. However, the coexistence of internal (national) and international competitions raises the issue of the framework and contents of long-term planning, as well as of the liability of states and government institutions for the adequacy, security, and stability of energy sources, and consequently for customer supply security

Long-term preservation of bacon by high energy electrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannah, K.W.; Simic, M.G.

1985-01-01

Extra long-term storage of frozen, vacuum packed, cured bacon can be achieved by electronation, using 3 MeV electrons generated by an electron accelerator. A combination process consisting of low nitrite curing (40 ppm), smoking, vacuum packaging in Saran plastic, electronation (1 to 3 Mrad), and freezing (-10 C) allows storage for at least 2 1/2 years without any noticeable loss in quality, e.g. color, appearance, smell, or taste. This process also eliminates microbiological hazards associated with Salmonella and C. botulinum. Six Mrad tons/hour throughput of a 3 MeV 50 kw electron beam accelerator for standard sliced bacon packaging indicates a practical and economic commercial use for this combination process. (author)

Long-term impacts of electricity generation systems. Draft technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

technology options, energy demands and the vision for the future world are not described. Readers should later study those issues, based on the information provided in this document. To understand the nature of impacts, comparison of different types of impacts is helpful, and presentation of these impacts is a key for the comparison. How to value and weight the impacts for comparison of far future impacts is the main issue in methodological approaches. Both non-monetary valuation and monetary valuation are introduced with equal emphasis. These valuation methodologies, however, have limitations in their applications. In the method of monetary valuation, the concept of discounting is central in valuing far future impacts. Discounting affects the weight of far future impacts relative to impacts on the present generation. This concept may be used for sensitivity analysis with a range of discount rates, and the results may be presented for the decision making process. There is much opposition to monetary valuation of long-term impacts, so analysts need to take some other valuation method in many cases. However, in non-monetary valuation, it is not possible to have all indicators which could be used for comparison between two long-term impacts. Therefore, qualitative analysis is also required in many cases. Including results of qualitative analysis, multi-criteria analysis should be considered for assessment of long-term impacts. Temporal and spatial grouping should be made on the impacts, and analysis and decision making will be made with some weighting process. The weighting may be conducted according to a social choice including subjective valuation. Time period to be considered in the impact assessment is an important issue in the long-term impact assessment. Cut off time-period may be set to make consistent comparisons of different impacts

A high protein diet during pregnancy affects hepatic gene expression of energy sensing pathways along ontogenesis in a porcine model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Oster

Full Text Available In rodent models and in humans the impact of gestational diets on the offspring's phenotype was shown experimentally and epidemiologically. The underlying programming of fetal development was shown to be associated with an increased risk of degenerative diseases in adulthood, including the metabolic syndrome. There are clues that diet-dependent modifications of the metabolism during fetal life can persist until adulthood. This leads to the hypothesis that the offspring's transcriptomes show short-term and long-term changes depending on the maternal diet. To this end pregnant German landrace gilts were fed either a high protein diet (HP, 30% CP or an adequate protein diet (AP, 12% CP throughout pregnancy. Hepatic transcriptome profiles of the offspring were analyzed at prenatal (94 dpc and postnatal stages (1, 28, 188 dpn. Depending on the gestational dietary exposure, mRNA expression levels of genes related to energy metabolism, N-metabolism, growth factor signaling pathways, lipid metabolism, nucleic acid metabolism and stress/immune response were affected either in a short-term or in a long-term manner. Gene expression profiles at fetal stage 94 dpc were almost unchanged between the diets. The gestational HP diet affected the hepatic expression profiles at prenatal and postnatal stages. The effects encompassed a modulation of the genome in terms of an altered responsiveness of energy and nutrient sensing pathways. Differential expression of genes related to energy production and nutrient utilization contribute to the maintenance of development and growth performance within physiological norms, however the modulation of these pathways may be accompanied by a predisposition for metabolic disturbances up to adult stages.

Short- and long-term memory: differential involvement of neurotransmitter systems and signal transduction cascades

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MÔNICA R.M. VIANNA

2000-09-01

Full Text Available Since William James (1890 first distinguished primary from secondary memory, equivalent to short- and long-term memory, respectively, it has been assumed that short-term memory processes are in charge of cognition while long-term memory is being consolidated. From those days a major question has been whether short-term memory is merely a initial phase of long-term memory, or a separate phenomena. Recent experiments have shown that many treatments with specific molecular actions given into the hippocampus and related brain areas after one-trial avoidance learning can effectively cancel short-term memory without affecting long-term memory formation. This shows that short-term memory and long-term memory involve separate mechanisms and are independently processed. Other treatments, however, influence both memory types similarly, suggesting links between both at the receptor and at the post-receptor level, which should not be surprising as they both deal with nearly the same sensorimotor representations. This review examines recent advances in short- and long-term memory mechanisms based on the effect of intra-hippocampal infusion of drugs acting upon neurotransmitter and signal transduction systems on both memory types.

Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Kim, Son H.

2015-01-01

With high reliance on light-duty vehicles in the present, the future of global transportation system is also geared towards private modes, which has significant energy and emission implications. Public transportation has been argued as an alternative strategy for meeting the rising transportation demands of the growing world, especially the poor, in a sustainable and energy efficient way. The present study analyzes an important yet under-researched question – what are the long-term energy and emission implications of an electric rail based passenger transportation system for meeting both long and short distance passenter transportation needs? We analyze a suite of electric rail share scenarios with and without climate policy. In the reference scenario, the transportation system will evolve towards dominance of fossil based light-duty vehicles. We find that an electric rail policy is more successful than an economy wide climate policy in reducing transport sector energy demand and emissions. Economy wide emissions however can only be reduced through a broader climate policy, the cost of which can be reduced by hundreds of billions of dollars across the century when implemented in combination with the transport sector focused electric rail policy. Moreover, higher share of electric rail enhances energy security for oil importing nations and reduces vehicular congestion and road infrastructure requirement as well. -- Highlights: •Economy wide carbon price policy will have little impact on transportation emissions. •Focused energy and emission mitigation policies required for transportation sector. •Large global shift towards electric rail based public transport is one possible option. •Transport sector focused policy will have marginal impact on total global emissions. •A combined transport sector and economy wide policy can reduce costs significantly

Long-term surveillance plan for the Burro Canyon disposal cell, Slick Rock, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-11-01

This long-term surveillance plant (LTSP) describes the US Department of energy's (DOE) long-term care program for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remediation Action (UMTRA) Project's burro Canyon disposal cell in San Miguel County, Colorado. This LTSP describes the long-term surveillance program the DOE will implement to ensure that the Burro Canyon disposal cell performs as designed. The program is based on site inspections to identify threats to disposal cell integrity. No ground water monitoring will be required at the Burro Canyon disposal cell because the ground water protection strategy is supplemental standards based on low-yield from the upper-most aquifer

Flexibility and reliability in long-term planning exercises dedicated to the electricity sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maizi, Nadia; Drouineau, Mathilde; Assoumou, Edi; Mazauric, Vincent

2010-09-15

Long-term planning models are useful to build plausible options for future energy systems and must consequently address the technological feasibility and associated cost of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and on problems of flexibility and reliability in power systems in order to improve results provided by long-term planning exercises: flexibility needs are integrated as an additional criterion for new investment decisions and, reliability requirements are assessed through the level of electrical losses they induced and a related cost. These approaches are implemented in a long-term planning model and demonstrated through a study of the Reunion Island.

Long-Term Follow-Up of Impulse Control Disorders in Parkinson’s Disease

OpenAIRE

Mamikonyan, Eugenia; Siderowf, Andrew D.; Duda, John E.; Potenza, Marc N.; Horn, Stacy; Stern, Matthew B.; Weintraub, Daniel

2008-01-01

Recent studies have linked dopamine agonist (DA) usage with the development of impulse control disorders (ICDs) in Parkinson’s disease (PD). Little is known about optimal management strategies or the long-term outcomes of affected patients. To report on the clinical interventions and long-term outcomes of PD patients who developed an ICD after DA initiation. Subjects contacted by telephone for a follow-up interview after a mean time period of 29.2 months. They were administered a modified Min...

Lessons from the use of a long-term energy model for consequential life cycle assessment: the BTL case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menten, Fabio; Tchung-Ming, Stephane; Lorne, Daphne; Bouvart, Frederique

2013-11-01

The main objective of this study is to develop a methodology adapted to the prospective environmental evaluation of actions in the energy sector. It describes how a bottom-up long-term energy model can be used in a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. The proposed methodology is applied in a case study about the global warming impacts occurring as a consequence of the future production of synthetic diesel from biomass 'biomass to liquids' - BTL), a second generation biofuel, in France. The results show a high sensitivity of the system-wide GHG balance to (i) the policy context and to (ii) the economic environment. Both influence the substitutions occurring within the system due to the production of BTL. Under the specific conditions of this study, the consequences of introducing BTL are not clear-cut. Therefore, we focus on the lessons from the detailed analysis of the results more than in the precise-looking projections, illustrating how this type of models can be used for strategic planning (industry and policy makers). TIMES-type models allow a detailed description of the numerous technologies affected by BTL production and how these vary under different policy scenarios. Moreover, some recommendations are presented, which should contribute for a proper systematization of consequential and prospective LCA methodologies. We provide argumentation on how to define a functional unit and system boundaries that are better linked with the goal of the study. Other crucial methodological issues are also discussed: how to treat temporal aspects in such environmental evaluation and how to increase the consistency of life cycle assessments. (authors)

Long term energy system analysis of Japan based on 'options for energy and environment' by the energy and environmental council

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hagiwara, Naoto; Kurosawa, Atsushi

2013-01-01

Implications to Japanese energy system are discussed especially in terms of primary energy supply and power generation portfolio, using sensitivity analysis results by an optimization type energy model based on TIMES modeling framework. We updated energy service demand, efficiency in energy conversion and consumption, and power generation costs based on the recent energy policy document called 'Options for Energy and Environment'. The time horizon of the model is 2050. The sensitivity analysis results are presented for 'Three scenarios for 2030' including nuclear phase out scenarios with/without CO 2 emission constraint. The results are compared with 'Options for Energy and Environment'. (author)

Long-term leaching of nutrients and contaminants from wood combustion ashes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maresca, Alberto; Hyks, J.; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

2018-01-01

With increasing amounts of woody biomass being combusted for energy purposes worldwide, more wood ash is being generated and needs management. As an alternative to landfilling, residues may be utilised for liming and fertilising purposes on forest soils. Comprehensive evaluations of long-term lea......With increasing amounts of woody biomass being combusted for energy purposes worldwide, more wood ash is being generated and needs management. As an alternative to landfilling, residues may be utilised for liming and fertilising purposes on forest soils. Comprehensive evaluations of long......-term leaching from these residues are needed in order to assess potential environmental impacts associated with their utilisation. Two Danish wood ash samples, one fly ash and one mixed ash (a combination of fly ash and bottom ash), were evaluated in long-term percolation column tests (up to L/S ∼2000 L....../kg), in order to quantify the release of major, minor and trace metal(loid)s. While columns of three different lengths were used, the leaching of individual elements could be described as a function of the L/S ratio – irrespective of the column length. At L/S 1000 L/kg, the cumulative releases of K, S, Na, Ca...

Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karl, T.R.

1995-12-01

Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

Long-term surveillance plan for the Collins Ranch Disposal Site, Lakeview, Oregon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-12-01

This long-term surveillance plan (LTSP) for the Lakeview, Oregon, Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project disposal site describes the surveillance activities for the Lakeview (Collins Ranch) disposal cell, which will be referred to as the Collins Ranch disposal cell throughout this document. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will carry out these activities to ensure that the disposal cell continues to function as designed. This final LTSP was prepared as a requirement for acceptance under the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) general license for custody and long-term care of residual radioactive materials. This LTSP documents whether the land and interests are owned by the United States or an Indian tribe, and details how the long-term care of the disposal site will be carried out. It is based on the DOE's Guidance for Implementing the UMTRA Project Long-term Surveillance Program (DOE, 1992a)

The design of long term care insurance contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremer, Helmuth; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie; Pestieau, Pierre

2016-12-01

This paper studies the design of long term care (LTC) insurance contracts in the presence of ex post moral hazard. While this problem bears some similarity with the study of health insurance (Blomqvist, 1997) the significance of informal LTC affects the problem in several crucial ways. It introduces the potential crowding out of informal care by market care financed through insurance coverage. Furthermore, the information structure becomes more intricate. Informal care is not publicly observable and, unlike the insurer, caregivers know the true needs of their relatives. We determine the optimal second-best contract and show that the optimal reimbursement rate can be written as an A-B-C expression à la Diamond (1998). These terms respectively reflect the efficiency loss as measured by the inverse of the demand elasticity, the distribution of needs and the preferences for risk sharing. Interestingly, informal care directly affects only the first term. More precisely the first term decreases with the presence and significance of informal care. Roughly speaking this means that an efficient LTC insurance contract should offer lower (marginal) reimbursement rates than its counterpart in a health insurance context. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term stable surface modification of DLC coatings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gotzmann Gaby

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The use of coatings based on diamond like carbon (DLC for medical applications was established during the last years. Main advantages of these coatings are its high hardness, good wear and friction behavior and its biocompatibility. Using low-energy electron-beam treatment, we addressed the surface modification of DLC coatings. The aim was to generate new biofunctional surface characteristics that are long-term stable.

Remaining authorized gas exports under long-term licences as of 1 November 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

A statistical base of information on natural gas exports authorized under long-term licences to markets in the U.S. as of November 1, 1995, was provided. The first part of the report focused on the total licensed exports to the U.S. while the second part provided a breakdown of the licensed export volumes by U.S. market regions. The National Energy Board Act empowers the National Energy Board to issue licences and orders for the export of natural gas from Canada. Licences are issued for long-term periods (over 2 years) and orders for short-term periods (2 years or less). Each individual export licence contains terms and conditions including the duration of the licence, the point of export where the gas may leave Canada, and the maximum allowable volumes that may be exported daily, annually, and throughout the term of the licence. 17 figs

HIV-related politics in long-term perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, S R

1998-06-01

Some long-term, large-scale socio-economic changes may affect the politics of HIV and other emerging viruses such as hepatitis C. It is useful to ask why the potential peace dividend of the early 1990s failed to provide adequate resources for HIV-related social and medical service delivery in developed or developing nations. This failure can be understood by looking at long-term global economic trends and the pressures they put on governments and corporations. They have produced a period in which fundamental issues of political and economic structure are at stake and, often, the response is a divide-and-rule politics to promote stability. National politics differ in terms of the extent to which such a 'politics of scapegoating' is institutionalized and in terms of which groups are scapegoated. Groups such as drug injectors, gay and bisexual men and sex traders are particularly likely to be targeted both by the scapegoaters and by HIV. Given this framework, how should public health professionals and activists engaged in HIV-related issues respond? Under what circumstances should we orient efforts upwards towards corporate, political or bureaucratic leaders? Under what circumstances, and how, should we orient towards popular forces? Relatedly, we need to consider an issue we often ignore: What do we have to offer potential allies? That is, in terms of their goals, philosophies and needs, why should they ally with us?

Reforming Long-Term Care Funding in Alberta.

Science.gov (United States)

Crump, R Trafford; Repin, Nadya; Sutherland, Jason M

2015-01-01

Like many provinces across Canada, Alberta is facing growing demand for long-term care. Issues with the mixed funding model used to pay long-term care providers had Alberta Health Services concerned that it was not efficiently meeting the demand for long-term care. Consequently, in 2010, Alberta Health Services introduced the patient/care-based funding (PCBF) model. PCBF is similar to activity-based funding in that it directly ties the complexity and care needs of long-term care residents to the payment received by long-term care providers. This review describes PCBF and discusses some of its strengths and weaknesses. In doing so, this review is intended to inform other provinces faced with similar long-term care challenges and contemplating their own funding reforms.

Effect of long-term storage of LWR spent fuel on Pu-thermal fuel cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurosawa, Masayoshi; Naito, Yoshitaka; Suyama, Kenya; Itahara, Kuniyuki; Suzuki, Katsuo; Hamada, Koji

1998-01-01

According to the Long-term Program for Research, Development and Utilization of Nuclear Energy (June, 1994) in Japan, the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant will be operated shortly after the year 2000, and the planning of the construction of the second commercial plant will be decided around 2010. Also, it is described that spent fuel storage has a positive meaning as an energy resource for the future utilization of Pu. Considering the balance between the increase of spent fuels and the domestic reprocessing capacity in Japan, it can be expected that the long-term storage of UO 2 spent fuels will be required. Then, we studied the effect of long-term storage of spent fuels on Pu-thermal fuel cycle. The burnup calculation were performed on the typical Japanese PWR fuel, and the burnup and criticality calculations were carried out on the Pu-thermal cores with MOX fuel. Based on the results, we evaluate the influence of extending the spent fuel storage term on the criticality safety, shielding design of the reprocessing plant and the core life time of the MOX core, etc. As the result of this work on long-term storage of LWR spent fuels, it becomes clear that there are few demerits regarding the lifetime of a MOX reactor core, and that there are many merits regarding the safety aspects of the fuel cycle facilities. Furthermore, long-term storage is meaningful as energy storage for effective utilization of Pu to be improved by technological innovation in future, and it will allow for sufficient time for the important policymaking of nuclear fuel cycle establishment in Japan. (author)

Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keiko Eimori

Full Text Available Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism.This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged <30 years at baseline.The bone mineral density was reduced (0.58±0.19 g/cm3, and the osteocalcin (13.9±12.4 ng/mL and urine N-terminal telopeptide (NTX levels (146.9±134.0 mM BCE/mM creatinine were greater than the cutoff value for predicting fracture. Among the bone metabolism markers studied, osteocalcin and NTX were negatively associated with the bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years.Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients.

Long-term storage of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magleby, M.T.

1990-01-01

Under Federal law, the Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for safe disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Waste (GTCC LLW) generated by licenses of the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC) or Agreement States. Such waste must be disposed of in a facility licensed by the NRC. It is unlikely that licensed disposal of GTCC LLW will be available prior to the year 2010. Pending availability of disposal capacity, DOE is assessing the need for collective, long-term storage of GTCC LLW. Potential risks to public health and safety caused by long-term storage of GTCC LLW at the place of generation will be evaluated to determine if alternative facilities are warranted. If warranted, several options will be investigated to determine the preferred alternative for long-term storage. These options include modification of an existing DOE facility, development of a new DOE facility, or development of a facility by the private sector with or without DOE support. Reasonable costs for long-term storage would be borne by the waste generators. 5 refs., 1 fig

Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

The long-term use of soap does not affect the pH-maintenance mechanism of human skin.