Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ying, L.-C.; Pan, M.-C.

2008-01-01

Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads

Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ying, Li-Chih [Department of Marketing Management, Central Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 11, Pu-tzu Lane, Peitun, Taichung City 406 (China); Pan, Mei-Chiu [Graduate Institute of Management Sciences, Nanhua University, 32, Chung Keng Li, Dalin, Chiayi 622 (China)

2008-02-15

Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

Kalman-fuzzy algorithm in short term load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah Baki, S.R.; Saibon, H.; Lo, K.L.

1996-01-01

A combination of Kalman-Fuzzy-Neural is developed to forecast the next 24 hours load. The input data fed to neural network are presented with training data set composed of historical load data, weather, day of the week, month of the year and holidays. The load data is fed through Kalman-Fuzzy filter before being applied to Neural Network for training. With this techniques Neural Network converges faster and the mean percentage error of predicted load is reduced as compared to the classical ANN technique

Unsupervised/supervised learning concept for 24-hour load forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Djukanovic, M [Electrical Engineering Inst. ' Nikola Tesla' , Belgrade (Yugoslavia); Babic, B [Electrical Power Industry of Serbia, Belgrade (Yugoslavia); Sobajic, D J; Pao, Y -H [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States). Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

1993-07-01

An application of artificial neural networks in short-term load forecasting is described. An algorithm using an unsupervised/supervised learning concept and historical relationship between the load and temperature for a given season, day type and hour of the day to forecast hourly electric load with a lead time of 24 hours is proposed. An additional approach using functional link net, temperature variables, average load and last one-hour load of previous day is introduced and compared with the ANN model with one hidden layer load forecast. In spite of limited available weather variables (maximum, minimum and average temperature for the day) quite acceptable results have been achieved. The 24-hour-ahead forecast errors (absolute average) ranged from 2.78% for Saturdays and 3.12% for working days to 3.54% for Sundays. (Author)

Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR for Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Wen Lee

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Hybridizing chaotic evolutionary algorithms with support vector regression (SVR to improve forecasting accuracy is a hot topic in electricity load forecasting. Trapping at local optima and premature convergence are critical shortcomings of the tabu search (TS algorithm. This paper investigates potential improvements of the TS algorithm by applying quantum computing mechanics to enhance the search information sharing mechanism (tabu memory to improve the forecasting accuracy. This article presents an SVR-based load forecasting model that integrates quantum behaviors and the TS algorithm with the support vector regression model (namely SVRQTS to obtain a more satisfactory forecasting accuracy. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the alternatives.

Load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mak, H.

1995-01-01

Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

GMDH-Based Semi-Supervised Feature Selection for Electricity Load Classification Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lintao Yang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available With the development of smart power grids, communication network technology and sensor technology, there has been an exponential growth in complex electricity load data. Irregular electricity load fluctuations caused by the weather and holiday factors disrupt the daily operation of the power companies. To deal with these challenges, this paper investigates a day-ahead electricity peak load interval forecasting problem. It transforms the conventional continuous forecasting problem into a novel interval forecasting problem, and then further converts the interval forecasting problem into the classification forecasting problem. In addition, an indicator system influencing the electricity load is established from three dimensions, namely the load series, calendar data, and weather data. A semi-supervised feature selection algorithm is proposed to address an electricity load classification forecasting issue based on the group method of data handling (GMDH technology. The proposed algorithm consists of three main stages: (1 training the basic classifier; (2 selectively marking the most suitable samples from the unclassified label data, and adding them to an initial training set; and (3 training the classification models on the final training set and classifying the test samples. An empirical analysis of electricity load dataset from four Chinese cities is conducted. Results show that the proposed model can address the electricity load classification forecasting problem more efficiently and effectively than the FW-Semi FS (forward semi-supervised feature selection and GMDH-U (GMDH-based semi-supervised feature selection for customer classification models.

Application of chaotic ant swarm optimization in electric load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, W.-C.

2010-01-01

Support vector regression (SVR) had revealed strong potential in accurate electric load forecasting, particularly by employing effective evolutionary algorithms to determine suitable values of its three parameters. Based on previous research results, however, these employed evolutionary algorithms themselves have several drawbacks, such as converging prematurely, reaching slowly the global optimal solution, and trapping into a local optimum. This investigation presents an SVR-based electric load forecasting model that applied a novel algorithm, namely chaotic ant swarm optimization (CAS), to improve the forecasting performance by searching its suitable parameters combination. The proposed CAS combines with the chaotic behavior of single ant and self-organization behavior of ant colony in the foraging process to overcome premature local optimum. The empirical results indicate that the SVR model with CAS (SVRCAS) results in better forecasting performance than the other alternative methods, namely SVRCPSO (SVR with chaotic PSO), SVRCGA (SVR with chaotic GA), regression model, and ANN model.

A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mamlook, Rustum; Badran, Omar; Abdulhadi, Emad

2009-01-01

This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes

Simultaneous day-ahead forecasting of electricity price and load in smart grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shayeghi, H.; Ghasemi, A.; Moradzadeh, M.; Nooshyar, M.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • This paper presents a novel MIMO-based support vector machine for forecasting. • Considered uncertainties for better simulation for filtering in input data. • Used LSSVM technique for learning. • Proposed a new modification for standard artificial bee colony algorithm to optimize LSSVM engine. - Abstract: In smart grids, customers are promoted to change their energy consumption patterns by electricity prices. In fact, in this environment, the electricity price and load consumption are highly corrected such that the market participants will have complex model in their decisions to maximize their profit. Although the available forecasting mythologies perform well in electricity market by way of little or no load and price interdependencies, but cannot capture load and price dynamics if they exist. To overcome this shortage, a Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) model is presented which can consider the correlation between electricity price and load. The proposed model consists of three components known as a Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) to make valuable subsets, Generalized Mutual Information (GMI) to select best input candidate and Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) based on MIMO model, called LSSVM-MIMO, to make simultaneous load and price forecasts. Moreover, the LSSVM-MIMO parameters are optimized by a novel Quasi-Oppositional Artificial Bee Colony (QOABC) algorithm. Some forecasting indices based on error factor are considered to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. Simulations carried out on New York Independent System Operator, New South Wales (NSW) and PJM electricity markets data, and showing that the proposed hybrid algorithm has good potential for simultaneous forecasting of electricity price and load

Spatial electric load forecasting

CERN Document Server

Willis, H Lee

2002-01-01

Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

Distribution load forecast with interactive correction of horizon loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glamochanin, V.; Andonov, D.; Gagovski, I.

1994-01-01

This paper presents the interactive distribution load forecast application that performs the distribution load forecast with interactive correction of horizon loads. It consists of two major parts implemented in Fortran and Visual Basic. The Fortran part is used for the forecasts computations. It consists of two methods: Load Transfer Coupling Curve Fitting (LTCCF) and load Forecast Using Curve Shape Clustering (FUCSC). LTCCF is used to 'correct' the contaminated data because of load transfer among neighboring distribution areas. FUCSC uses curve shape clustering to forecast the distribution loads of small areas. The forecast for each small area is achieved by using the shape of corresponding cluster curve. The comparison of forecasted loads of the area with historical data will be used as a tool for the correction of the estimated horizon load. The Visual Basic part is used to provide flexible interactive user-friendly environment. (author). 5 refs., 3 figs

Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuqi Dong

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Accurate short-term electrical load forecasting plays a pivotal role in the national economy and people’s livelihood through providing effective future plans and ensuring a reliable supply of sustainable electricity. Although considerable work has been done to select suitable models and optimize the model parameters to forecast the short-term electrical load, few models are built based on the characteristics of time series, which will have a great impact on the forecasting accuracy. For that reason, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on data decomposition considering periodicity, trend and randomness of the original electrical load time series data. Through preprocessing and analyzing the original time series, the generalized regression neural network optimized by genetic algorithm is used to forecast the short-term electrical load. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model can not only achieve a good fitting ability, but it can also approximate the actual values when dealing with non-linear time series data with periodicity, trend and randomness.

Electric Load Forecasting Based on a Least Squares Support Vector Machine with Fuzzy Time Series and Global Harmony Search Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Hong Chen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new electric load forecasting model by hybridizing the fuzzy time series (FTS and global harmony search algorithm (GHSA with least squares support vector machines (LSSVM, namely GHSA-FTS-LSSVM model. Firstly, the fuzzy c-means clustering (FCS algorithm is used to calculate the clustering center of each cluster. Secondly, the LSSVM is applied to model the resultant series, which is optimized by GHSA. Finally, a real-world example is adopted to test the performance of the proposed model. In this investigation, the proposed model is verified using experimental datasets from the Guangdong Province Industrial Development Database, and results are compared against autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model and other algorithms hybridized with LSSVM including genetic algorithm (GA, particle swarm optimization (PSO, harmony search, and so on. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed GHSA-FTS-LSSVM model effectively generates more accurate predictive results.

Online forecasting of electrical load for distributed management of plug-in electric vehicles

OpenAIRE

Basu , Kaustav; Ovalle , Andres; Guo , Baoling; Hably , Ahmad; Bacha , Seddik; Hajar , Khaled

2016-01-01

International audience; The paper aims at making online forecast of electrical load at the MV-LV transformer level. Optimal management of the Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV) charging requires the forecast of the electrical load for future hours. The forecasting module needs to be online (i.e update and make forecast for the future hours, every hour). The inputs to the predictor are historical electrical and weather data. Various data driven machine learning algorithms are compared to derive t...

Forecasting Monthly Electricity Demands by Wavelet Neuro-Fuzzy System Optimized by Heuristic Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeng-Fung Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting plays a paramount role in capacity planning, scheduling, and the operation of power systems. Reliable and accurate planning and prediction of electricity load are therefore vital. In this study, a novel approach for forecasting monthly electricity demands by wavelet transform and a neuro-fuzzy system is proposed. Firstly, the most appropriate inputs are selected and a dataset is constructed. Then, Haar wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the load data and eliminate noise. In the model, a hierarchical adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (HANFIS is suggested to solve the curse-of-dimensionality problem. Several heuristic algorithms including Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA, Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA, and Cuckoo Search (CS are utilized to optimize the clustering parameters which help form the rule base, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS optimize the parameters in the antecedent and consequent parts of each sub-model. The proposed approach was applied to forecast the electricity load of Hanoi, Vietnam. The constructed models have shown high forecasting performances based on the performance indices calculated. The results demonstrate the validity of the approach. The obtained results were also compared with those of several other well-known methods including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiple linear regression (MLR. In our study, the wavelet CS-HANFIS model outperformed the others and provided more accurate forecasting.

Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

A Short-Term and High-Resolution System Load Forecasting Approach Using Support Vector Regression with Hybrid Parameters Optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, Huaiguang [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-08-25

This work proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of the hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system.

Urban Saturated Power Load Analysis Based on a Novel Combined Forecasting Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiru Zhao

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Analysis of urban saturated power loads is helpful to coordinate urban power grid construction and economic social development. There are two different kinds of forecasting models: the logistic curve model focuses on the growth law of the data itself, while the multi-dimensional forecasting model considers several influencing factors as the input variables. To improve forecasting performance, a novel combined forecasting model for saturated power load analysis was proposed in this paper, which combined the above two models. Meanwhile, the weights of these two models in the combined forecasting model were optimized by employing a fruit fly optimization algorithm. Using Hubei Province as the example, the effectiveness of the proposed combined forecasting model was verified, demonstrating a higher forecasting accuracy. The analysis result shows that the power load of Hubei Province will reach saturation in 2039, and the annual maximum power load will reach about 78,630 MW. The results obtained from this proposed hybrid urban saturated power load analysis model can serve as a reference for sustainable development for urban power grids, regional economies, and society at large.

Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on Data Selection and Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendong Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Machine learning plays a vital role in several modern economic and industrial fields, and selecting an optimized machine learning method to improve time series’ forecasting accuracy is challenging. Advanced machine learning methods, e.g., the support vector regression (SVR model, are widely employed in forecasting fields, but the individual SVR pays no attention to the significance of data selection, signal processing and optimization, which cannot always satisfy the requirements of time series forecasting. By preprocessing and analyzing the original time series, in this paper, a hybrid SVR model is developed, considering periodicity, trend and randomness, and combined with data selection, signal processing and an optimization algorithm for short-term load forecasting. Case studies of electricity power data from New South Wales and Singapore are regarded as exemplifications to estimate the performance of the developed novel model. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid method is not only robust but also capable of achieving significant improvement compared with the traditional single models and can be an effective and efficient tool for power load forecasting.

Hybridizing DEMD and Quantum PSO with SVR in Electric Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li-Ling Peng

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Electric load forecasting is an important issue for a power utility, associated with the management of daily operations such as energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment, and load dispatch. Inspired by strong non-linear learning capability of support vector regression (SVR, this paper presents an SVR model hybridized with the differential empirical mode decomposition (DEMD method and quantum particle swarm optimization algorithm (QPSO for electric load forecasting. The DEMD method is employed to decompose the electric load to several detail parts associated with high frequencies (intrinsic mode function—IMF and an approximate part associated with low frequencies. Hybridized with quantum theory to enhance particle searching performance, the so-called QPSO is used to optimize the parameters of SVR. The electric load data of the New South Wales (Sydney, Australia market and the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO, New York, USA are used for comparing the forecasting performances of different forecasting models. The results illustrate the validity of the idea that the proposed model can simultaneously provide forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability.

A new cascade NN based method to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouhi, Sajjad; Keynia, Farshid

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We are proposed a new hybrid cascaded NN based method and WT to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market. • An efficient preprocessor consist of normalization and shuffling of signals is presented. • In order to select the best inputs, a two-stage feature selection is presented. • A new cascaded structure consist of three cascaded NNs is used as forecaster. - Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion in efficient operation of power systems. The electricity load is a nonlinear signal with time dependent behavior. The area of electricity load forecasting has still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. To improve the accuracy of prediction, a new hybrid forecast strategy based on cascaded neural network is proposed for STLF. This method is consists of wavelet transform, an intelligent two-stage feature selection, and cascaded neural network. The feature selection is used to remove the irrelevant and redundant inputs. The forecast engine is composed of three cascaded neural network (CNN) structure. This cascaded structure can be efficiently extract input/output mapping function of the nonlinear electricity load data. Adjustable parameters of the intelligent feature selection and CNN is fine-tuned by a kind of cross-validation technique. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New York electricity markets. It is concluded from the result, the proposed algorithm is a robust forecast method

Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

1997-01-01

Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

Online load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

2013-01-01

This paper presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...

Mid-term load forecasting of power systems by a new prediction method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

2008-01-01

Mid-term load forecasting (MTLF) becomes an essential tool for today power systems, mainly in those countries whose power systems operate in a deregulated environment. Among different kinds of MTLF, this paper focuses on the prediction of daily peak load for one month ahead. This kind of load forecast has many applications like maintenance scheduling, mid-term hydro thermal coordination, adequacy assessment, management of limited energy units, negotiation of forward contracts, and development of cost efficient fuel purchasing strategies. However, daily peak load is a nonlinear, volatile, and nonstationary signal. Besides, lack of sufficient data usually further complicates this problem. The paper proposes a new methodology to solve it, composed of an efficient data model, preforecast mechanism and combination of neural network and evolutionary algorithm as the hybrid forecast technique. The proposed methodology is examined on the EUropean Network on Intelligent TEchnologies (EUNITE) test data and Iran's power system. We will also compare our strategy with the other MTLF methods revealing its capability to solve this load forecast problem

Load forecasting method considering temperature effect for distribution network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Xiao Fang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, the temperature factor was introduced into the load forecasting in this paper. This paper analyzed the characteristics of power load variation, and researched the rule of the load with the temperature change. Based on the linear regression analysis, the mathematical model of load forecasting was presented with considering the temperature effect, and the steps of load forecasting were given. Used MATLAB, the temperature regression coefficient was calculated. Using the load forecasting model, the full-day load forecasting and time-sharing load forecasting were carried out. By comparing and analyzing the forecast error, the results showed that the error of time-sharing load forecasting method was small in this paper. The forecasting method is an effective method to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

Day-ahead load forecast using random forest and expert input selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lahouar, A.; Ben Hadj Slama, J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A model based on random forests for short term load forecast is proposed. • An expert feature selection is added to refine inputs. • Special attention is paid to customers behavior, load profile and special holidays. • The model is flexible and able to handle complex load signal. • A technical comparison is performed to assess the forecast accuracy. - Abstract: The electrical load forecast is getting more and more important in recent years due to the electricity market deregulation and integration of renewable resources. To overcome the incoming challenges and ensure accurate power prediction for different time horizons, sophisticated intelligent methods are elaborated. Utilization of intelligent forecast algorithms is among main characteristics of smart grids, and is an efficient tool to face uncertainty. Several crucial tasks of power operators such as load dispatch rely on the short term forecast, thus it should be as accurate as possible. To this end, this paper proposes a short term load predictor, able to forecast the next 24 h of load. Using random forest, characterized by immunity to parameter variations and internal cross validation, the model is constructed following an online learning process. The inputs are refined by expert feature selection using a set of if–then rules, in order to include the own user specifications about the country weather or market, and to generalize the forecast ability. The proposed approach is tested through a real historical set from the Tunisian Power Company, and the simulation shows accurate and satisfactory results for one day in advance, with an average error exceeding rarely 2.3%. The model is validated for regular working days and weekends, and special attention is paid to moving holidays, following non Gregorian calendar

Short term load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffman, M.; Hassan, A. [South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD (United States); Martinez, D. [Black Hills Power and Light, Rapid City, SD (United States)

2005-07-01

Details of a neuro-fuzzy network-based short term load forecasting system for power utilities were presented. The fuzzy logic controller was used to fuzzify inputs representing historical temperature and load curves. The fuzzified inputs were then used to develop the fuzzy rules matrix. Output membership function values were determined by evaluating the fuzzified inputs with the fuzzy rules. Output membership function values were used as inputs for the neural network portion of the system. The training process used a back propagation gradient descent algorithm to adjust the weight values of the neural network in order to reduce the error between the neural network output and the desired output. The neural network was then used to predict future load values. Sample data were taken from a local power company's daily load curve to validate the system. A 10 per cent forecast error was introduced in the temperature values to determine the effect on load prediction. Results of the study suggest that the combined use of fuzzy logic and neural networks provide greater accuracy than studies where either approach is used alone. 6 refs., 6 figs.

Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

2017-01-01

forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

Linear Algorithms for Radioelectric Spectrum Forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis F. Pedraza

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the development and evaluation of two linear algorithms for forecasting reception power for different channels at an assigned spectrum band of global systems for mobile communications (GSM, in order to analyze the spatial opportunity for reuse of frequencies by secondary users (SUs in a cognitive radio (CR network. The algorithms employed correspond to seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH, which allow for a forecast of channel occupancy status. Results are evaluated using the following criteria: availability and occupancy time for channels, different types of mean absolute error, and observation time. The contributions of this work include a more integral forecast as the algorithm not only forecasts reception power but also the occupancy and availability time of a channel to determine its precision percentage during the use by primary users (PUs and SUs within a CR system. Algorithm analyses demonstrate a better performance for SARIMA over GARCH algorithm in most of the evaluated variables.

A methodology for Electric Power Load Forecasting

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Eisa Almeshaiei

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Electricity demand forecasting is a central and integral process for planning periodical operations and facility expansion in the electricity sector. Demand pattern is almost very complex due to the deregulation of energy markets. Therefore, finding an appropriate forecasting model for a specific electricity network is not an easy task. Although many forecasting methods were developed, none can be generalized for all demand patterns. Therefore, this paper presents a pragmatic methodology that can be used as a guide to construct Electric Power Load Forecasting models. This methodology is mainly based on decomposition and segmentation of the load time series. Several statistical analyses are involved to study the load features and forecasting precision such as moving average and probability plots of load noise. Real daily load data from Kuwaiti electric network are used as a case study. Some results are reported to guide forecasting future needs of this network.

Short-term load forecasting of power system

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xiaobin

2017-05-01

In order to ensure the scientific nature of optimization about power system, it is necessary to improve the load forecasting accuracy. Power system load forecasting is based on accurate statistical data and survey data, starting from the history and current situation of electricity consumption, with a scientific method to predict the future development trend of power load and change the law of science. Short-term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis, which is of great significance to unit combination, economic dispatch and safety check. Therefore, the load forecasting of the power system is explained in detail in this paper. First, we use the data from 2012 to 2014 to establish the partial least squares model to regression analysis the relationship between daily maximum load, daily minimum load, daily average load and each meteorological factor, and select the highest peak by observing the regression coefficient histogram Day maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily average temperature as the meteorological factors to improve the accuracy of load forecasting indicators. Secondly, in the case of uncertain climate impact, we use the time series model to predict the load data for 2015, respectively, the 2009-2014 load data were sorted out, through the previous six years of the data to forecast the data for this time in 2015. The criterion for the accuracy of the prediction is the average of the standard deviations for the prediction results and average load for the previous six years. Finally, considering the climate effect, we use the BP neural network model to predict the data in 2015, and optimize the forecast results on the basis of the time series model.

Analysis of recurrent neural networks for short-term energy load forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Di Persio, Luca; Honchar, Oleksandr

2017-11-01

Short-term forecasts have recently gained an increasing attention because of the rise of competitive electricity markets. In fact, short-terms forecast of possible future loads turn out to be fundamental to build efficient energy management strategies as well as to avoid energy wastage. Such type of challenges are difficult to tackle both from a theoretical and applied point of view. Latter tasks require sophisticated methods to manage multidimensional time series related to stochastic phenomena which are often highly interconnected. In the present work we first review novel approaches to energy load forecasting based on recurrent neural network, focusing our attention on long/short term memory architectures (LSTMs). Such type of artificial neural networks have been widely applied to problems dealing with sequential data such it happens, e.g., in socio-economics settings, for text recognition purposes, concerning video signals, etc., always showing their effectiveness to model complex temporal data. Moreover, we consider different novel variations of basic LSTMs, such as sequence-to-sequence approach and bidirectional LSTMs, aiming at providing effective models for energy load data. Last but not least, we test all the described algorithms on real energy load data showing not only that deep recurrent networks can be successfully applied to energy load forecasting, but also that this approach can be extended to other problems based on time series prediction.

A New Strategy for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Yang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting remains an important problem. Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF plays a vital role in power systems because it is the essential part of power system planning and operation, and it is also fundamental in many applications. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work very well for STLF, a hybrid model based on the seasonal ARIMA model and BP neural network is presented in this paper to improve the forecasting accuracy. Firstly the seasonal ARIMA model is adopted to forecast the electric load demand day ahead; then, by using the residual load demand series obtained in this forecasting process as the original series, the follow-up residual series is forecasted by BP neural network; finally, by summing up the forecasted residual series and the forecasted load demand series got by seasonal ARIMA model, the final load demand forecasting series is obtained. Case studies show that the new strategy is quite useful to improve the accuracy of STLF.

Fuzzy approach for short term load forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chenthur Pandian, S.; Duraiswamy, K.; Kanagaraj, N. [Electrical and Electronics Engg., K.S. Rangasamy College of Technology, Tiruchengode 637209, Tamil Nadu (India); Christober Asir Rajan, C. [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Pondicherry Engineering College, Pondicherry (India)

2006-04-15

The main objective of short term load forecasting (STLF) is to provide load predictions for generation scheduling, economic load dispatch and security assessment at any time. The STLF is needed to supply necessary information for the system management of day-to-day operations and unit commitment. In this paper, the 'time' and 'temperature' of the day are taken as inputs for the fuzzy logic controller and the 'forecasted load' is the output. The input variable 'time' has been divided into eight triangular membership functions. The membership functions are Mid Night, Dawn, Morning, Fore Noon, After Noon, Evening, Dusk and Night. Another input variable 'temperature' has been divided into four triangular membership functions. They are Below Normal, Normal, Above Normal and High. The 'forecasted load' as output has been divided into eight triangular membership functions. They are Very Low, Low, Sub Normal, Moderate Normal, Normal, Above Normal, High and Very High. Case studies have been carried out for the Neyveli Thermal Power Station Unit-II (NTPS-II) in India. The fuzzy forecasted load values are compared with the conventional forecasted values. The forecasted load closely matches the actual one within +/-3%. (author)

Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaur, Amanpreet; Nonnenmacher, Lukas; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

2016-01-01

We discuss methods for net load forecasting and their significance for operation and management of power grids with high renewable energy penetration. Net load forecasting is an enabling technology for the integration of microgrid fleets with the macrogrid. Net load represents the load that is traded between the grids (microgrid and utility grid). It is important for resource allocation and electricity market participation at the point of common coupling between the interconnected grids. We compare two inherently different approaches: additive and integrated net load forecast models. The proposed methodologies are validated on a microgrid with 33% annual renewable energy (solar) penetration. A heuristics based solar forecasting technique is proposed, achieving skill of 24.20%. The integrated solar and load forecasting model outperforms the additive model by 10.69% and the uncertainty range for the additive model is larger than the integrated model by 2.2%. Thus, for grid applications an integrated forecast model is recommended. We find that the net load forecast errors and the solar forecasting errors are cointegrated with a common stochastic drift. This is useful for future planning and modeling because the solar energy time-series allows to infer important features of the net load time-series, such as expected variability and uncertainty. - Highlights: • Net load forecasting methods for grids with renewable energy generation are discussed. • Integrated solar and load forecasting outperforms the additive model by 10.69%. • Net load forecasting reduces the uncertainty between the interconnected grids.

A neutral network based technique for short-term forecasting of anomalous load periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sforna, M [ENEL, s.p.a, Italian Power Company (Italy); Lamedica, R; Prudenzi, A [Rome Univ. ` La Sapienza` , Rome (Italy); Caciotta, M; Orsolini Cencelli, V [Rome Univ. III, Rome (Italy)

1995-01-01

The paper illustrates a part of the research activity conducted by authors in the field of electric Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures. Previous experiences with basic ANN architectures have shown that, even though these architecture provide results comparable with those obtained by human operators for most normal days, they evidence some accuracy deficiencies when applied to `anomalous` load conditions occurring during holidays and long weekends. For these periods a specific procedure based upon a combined (unsupervised/supervised) approach has been proposed. The unsupervised stage provides a preventive classification of the historical load data by means of a Kohonen`s Self Organizing Map (SOM). The supervised stage, performing the proper forecasting activity, is obtained by using a multi-layer percept ron with a back propagation learning algorithm similar to the ones above mentioned. The unconventional use of information deriving from the classification stage permits the proposed procedure to obtain a relevant enhancement of the forecast accuracy for anomalous load situations.

Modelling self-optimised short term load forecasting for medium voltage loads using tunning fuzzy systems and Artificial Neural Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoud, Thair S.; Habibi, Daryoush; Hassan, Mohammed Y.; Bass, Octavian

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A novel Short Term Medium Voltage (MV) Load Forecasting (STLF) model is presented. • A knowledge-based STLF error control mechanism is implemented. • An Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based optimum tuning is applied on STLF. • The relationship between load profiles and operational conditions is analysed. - Abstract: This paper presents an intelligent mechanism for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) models, which allows self-adaptation with respect to the load operational conditions. Specifically, a knowledge-based FeedBack Tunning Fuzzy System (FBTFS) is proposed to instantaneously correlate the information about the demand profile and its operational conditions to make decisions for controlling the model’s forecasting error rate. To maintain minimum forecasting error under various operational scenarios, the FBTFS adaptation was optimised using a Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLPANN), which was trained using Backpropagation algorithm, based on the information about the amount of error and the operational conditions at time of forecasting. For the sake of comparison and performance testing, this mechanism was added to the conventional forecasting methods, i.e. Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous-Artificial Neural Network (NARXANN), Fuzzy Subtractive Clustering Method-based Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (FSCMANFIS) and Gaussian-kernel Support Vector Machine (GSVM), and the measured forecasting error reduction average in a 12 month simulation period was 7.83%, 8.5% and 8.32% respectively. The 3.5 MW variable load profile of Edith Cowan University (ECU) in Joondalup, Australia, was used in the modelling and simulations of this model, and the data was provided by Western Power, the transmission and distribution company of the state of Western Australia.

7 CFR 1710.206 - Approval requirements for load forecasts prepared pursuant to approved load forecast work plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... financial ratings, and participation in reliability council, power pool, regional transmission group, power... analysis and modeling of the borrower's electric system loads as provided for in the load forecast work plan. (5) A narrative discussing the borrower's past, existing, and forecast of future electric system...

Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jui-Yi Ho

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

Load Forecasting in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carvallo, Juan Pablo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Larsen, Peter H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sanstad, Alan H [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2017-07-19

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is a process used by many vertically-integrated U.S. electric utilities to determine least-cost/risk supply and demand-side resources that meet government policy objectives and future obligations to customers and, in many cases, shareholders. Forecasts of energy and peak demand are a critical component of the IRP process. There have been few, if any, quantitative studies of IRP long-run (planning horizons of two decades) load forecast performance and its relationship to resource planning and actual procurement decisions. In this paper, we evaluate load forecasting methods, assumptions, and outcomes for 12 Western U.S. utilities by examining and comparing plans filed in the early 2000s against recent plans, up to year 2014. We find a convergence in the methods and data sources used. We also find that forecasts in more recent IRPs generally took account of new information, but that there continued to be a systematic over-estimation of load growth rates during the period studied. We compare planned and procured resource expansion against customer load and year-to-year load growth rates, but do not find a direct relationship. Load sensitivities performed in resource plans do not appear to be related to later procurement strategies even in the presence of large forecast errors. These findings suggest that resource procurement decisions may be driven by other factors than customer load growth. Our results have important implications for the integrated resource planning process, namely that load forecast accuracy may not be as important for resource procurement as is generally believed, that load forecast sensitivities could be used to improve the procurement process, and that management of load uncertainty should be prioritized over more complex forecasting techniques.

Short-Term Fuzzy Load Forecasting Model Using Genetic–Fuzzy and Ant Colony–Fuzzy Knowledge Base Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murat Luy

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The estimation of hourly electricity load consumption is highly important for planning short-term supply–demand equilibrium in sources and facilities. Studies of short-term load forecasting in the literature are categorized into two groups: classical conventional and artificial intelligence-based methods. Artificial intelligence-based models, especially when using fuzzy logic techniques, have more accurate load estimations when datasets include high uncertainty. However, as the knowledge base—which is defined by expert insights and decisions—gets larger, the load forecasting performance decreases. This study handles the problem that is caused by the growing knowledge base, and improves the load forecasting performance of fuzzy models through nature-inspired methods. The proposed models have been optimized by using ant colony optimization and genetic algorithm (GA techniques. The training and testing processes of the proposed systems were performed on historical hourly load consumption and temperature data collected between 2011 and 2014. The results show that the proposed models can sufficiently improve the performance of hourly short-term load forecasting. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the monthly minimum in the forecasting model, in terms of the forecasting accuracy, is 3.9% (February 2014. The results show that the proposed methods make it possible to work with large-scale rule bases in a more flexible estimation environment.

Short-term load forecasting by a neuro-fuzzy based approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruey-Hsun Liang; Ching-Chi Cheng [National Yunlin University of Science and Technology (China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

2002-02-01

An approach based on an artificial neural network (ANN) combined with a fuzzy system is proposed for short-term load forecasting. This approach was developed in order to reach the desired short-term load forecasting in an efficient manner. Over the past few years, ANNs have attained the ability to manage a great deal of system complexity and are now being proposed as powerful computational tools. In order to select the appropriate load as the input for the desired forecasting, the Pearson analysis method is first applied to choose two historical record load patterns that are similar to the forecasted load pattern. These two load patterns and the required weather parameters are then fuzzified and input into a neural network for training or testing the network. The back-propagation (BP) neural network is applied to determine the preliminary forecasted load. In addition, the rule base for the fuzzy inference machine contains important linguistic membership function terms with knowledge in the form of fuzzy IF-THEN rules. This produces the load correction inference from the historical information and past forecasted load errors to obtain an inferred load error. Adding the inferred load error to the preliminary forecasted load, we can obtain the finial forecasted load. The effectiveness of the proposed approach to the short-term load-forecasting problem is demonstrated using practical data from the Taiwan Power Company (TPC). (Author)

Short-term load forecast using trend information and process reconstruction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, P.J.; Pires, A.J.; Martins, J.F. [Instituto Politecnico de Setubal (Portugal). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Martins, A.G. [University of Coimbra (Portugal). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Mendes, R.V. [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisboa (Portugal). Laboratorio de Mecatronica

2005-07-01

The algorithms for short-term load forecast (STLF), especially within the next-hour horizon, belong to a group of methodologies that aim to render more effective the actions of planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems (EES). In the context of the progressive liberalization of the electricity sector, unbundling of the previous monopolistic structure emphasizes the need for load forecast, particularly at the network level. Methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in next-hour load forecast. Designing an ANN requires the proper choice of input variables, avoiding overfitting and an unnecessarily complex input vector (IV). This may be achieved by trying to reduce the arbitrariness in the choice of endogenous variables. At a first stage, we have applied the mathematical techniques of process-reconstruction to the underlying stochastic process, using coding and block entropies to characterize the measure and memory range. At a second stage, the concept of consumption trend in homologous days of previous weeks has been used. The possibility to include weather-related variables in the IV has also been analysed, the option finally being to establish a model of the non-weather sensitive type. The paper uses a real-life case study. (author)

A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengshi Tian

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

Short-Term Load Forecasting-Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, Huaiguang [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ding, Fei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhang, Yingchen [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-08-23

In a traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of the load forecasting technique can provide an accurate prediction of the load power that will happen in a future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during a longer time period instead of using a snapshot of the load at the time when the reconfiguration happens; thus, the distribution system operator can use this information to better operate the system reconfiguration and achieve optimal solutions. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting approach to automatically reconfigure distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with a forecaster based on support vector regression and parallel parameters optimization. The network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum amount of loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.

Short term load forecasting of anomalous load using hybrid soft computing methods

Science.gov (United States)

Rasyid, S. A.; Abdullah, A. G.; Mulyadi, Y.

2016-04-01

Load forecast accuracy will have an impact on the generation cost is more economical. The use of electrical energy by consumers on holiday, show the tendency of the load patterns are not identical, it is different from the pattern of the load on a normal day. It is then defined as a anomalous load. In this paper, the method of hybrid ANN-Particle Swarm proposed to improve the accuracy of anomalous load forecasting that often occur on holidays. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half-hourly electricity demand for power systems in the Indonesia National Electricity Market in West Java region. Experiments were conducted by testing various of learning rate and learning data input. Performance of this methodology will be validated with real data from the national of electricity company. The result of observations show that the proposed formula is very effective to short-term load forecasting in the case of anomalous load. Hybrid ANN-Swarm Particle relatively simple and easy as a analysis tool by engineers.

Medium-term load forecasting and wholesale transaction profitability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selker, F.K.; Wroblewski, W.R.

1996-01-01

The volume of wholesale transactions quoted at firm prices is increasing. The cost, and thus profitability, of serving these contracts strongly depends upon native load during the time of delivery. However, transactions extend beyond load forecasts based on weather information, and long-term resource planning forecasts of load peaks and energy provide inadequate detail. To address this need, Decision Focus Inc. (DFI) and Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) developed a probabilistic, medium-term load forecasting capability. In this paper the authors use a hypothetical utility to explore the impact of uncertain medium-term loads on transaction profitability

Power Load Prediction Based on Fractal Theory

OpenAIRE

Jian-Kai, Liang; Cattani, Carlo; Wan-Qing, Song

2015-01-01

The basic theories of load forecasting on the power system are summarized. Fractal theory, which is a new algorithm applied to load forecasting, is introduced. Based on the fractal dimension and fractal interpolation function theories, the correlation algorithms are applied to the model of short-term load forecasting. According to the process of load forecasting, the steps of every process are designed, including load data preprocessing, similar day selecting, short-term load forecasting, and...

The Delicate Analysis of Short-Term Load Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Changwei; Zheng, Yuan

2017-05-01

This paper proposes a new method for short-term load forecasting based on the similar day method, correlation coefficient and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to achieve the precision analysis of load variation from three aspects (typical day, correlation coefficient, spectral analysis) and three dimensions (time dimension, industry dimensions, the main factors influencing the load characteristic such as national policies, regional economic, holidays, electricity and so on). First, the branch algorithm one-class-SVM is adopted to selection the typical day. Second, correlation coefficient method is used to obtain the direction and strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, which can reflect the influence caused by the customer macro policy and the scale of production to the electricity price. Third, Fourier transform residual error correction model is proposed to reflect the nature of load extracting from the residual error. Finally, simulation result indicates the validity and engineering practicability of the proposed method.

Hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems in forecasting regional electricity loads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pai, Ping-Feng [Department of Information Management, National Chi Nan University, 1 University Road, Puli, Nantou 545, Taiwan (China)

2006-09-15

Because of the privatization of electricity in many countries, load forecasting has become one of the most crucial issues in the planning and operations of electric utilities. In addition, accurate regional load forecasting can provide the transmission and distribution operators with more information. The hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system was originally designed to solve control and pattern recognition problems. The main objective of this investigation is to develop a hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system for time series forecasting (HEFST) and apply the proposed model to forecast regional electricity loads in Taiwan. Additionally, a scaled conjugate gradient learning method is employed in the supervised learning phase of the HEFST model. Subsequently, numerical data taken from the existing literature is used to demonstrate the forecasting performance of the HEFST model. Simulation results reveal that the proposed model has better forecasting performance than the artificial neural network model and the regression model. Thus, the HEFST model is a valid and promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, Huaiguang [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ding, Fei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhang, Yingchen [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jiang, Huaiguang [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ding, Fei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhang, Yingchen [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-07-26

In the traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of load forecasting technique can provide accurate prediction of load power that will happen in future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during the longer time period instead of using the snapshot of load at the time when the reconfiguration happens, and thus it can provide information to the distribution system operator (DSO) to better operate the system reconfiguration to achieve optimal solutions. Thus, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based approach for automatically reconfiguring distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and parallel parameters optimization. And the network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.

Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yalcinoz, T.; Eminoglu, U.

2005-01-01

Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey

A Combined Methodology of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Genetic Algorithm for Short-term Energy Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KAMPOUROPOULOS, K.

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This document presents an energy forecast methodology using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS and Genetic Algorithms (GA. The GA has been used for the selection of the training inputs of the ANFIS in order to minimize the training result error. The presented algorithm has been installed and it is being operating in an automotive manufacturing plant. It periodically communicates with the plant to obtain new information and update the database in order to improve its training results. Finally the obtained results of the algorithm are used in order to provide a short-term load forecasting for the different modeled consumption processes.

A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshid Keynia

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecast (STLF is an important operational function in both regulated power systems and deregulated open electricity markets. However, STLF is not easy to handle due to the nonlinear and random-like behaviors of system loads, weather conditions, and social and economic environment variations. Despite the research work performed in the area, more accurate and robust STLF methods are still needed due to the importance and complexity of STLF. In this paper, a new neural network approach for STLF is proposed. The proposed neural network has a novel learning algorithm based on a new modified harmony search technique. This learning algorithm can widely search the solution space in various directions, and it can also avoid the overfitting problem, trapping in local minima and dead bands. Based on this learning algorithm, the suggested neural network can efficiently extract the input/output mapping function of the forecast process leading to high STLF accuracy. The proposed approach is tested on two practical power systems and the results obtained are compared with the results of several other recently published STLF methods. These comparisons confirm the validity of the developed approach.

Wind and load forecast error model for multiple geographically distributed forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes-Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

2010-07-01

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To simulate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations. auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to produce forecast error time-domain curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and some experimental results obtained by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics. (orig.)

Gas demand forecasting by a new artificial intelligent algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Khatibi. B, Vahid; Khatibi, Elham

2012-01-01

Energy demand forecasting is a key issue for consumers and generators in all energy markets in the world. This paper presents a new forecasting algorithm for daily gas demand prediction. This algorithm combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP), linear regression or GARCH. The proposed method is applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the proposed method.

Short-term heat load forecasting for single family houses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

2013-01-01

This paper presents a method for forecasting the load for space heating in a single-family house. The forecasting model is built using data from sixteen houses located in Sønderborg, Denmark, combined with local climate measurements and weather forecasts. Every hour the hourly heat load for each...... house the following two days is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models and the climate inputs used are: ambient temperature, global radiation and wind speed. A computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme is used. The models are optimized to fit the individual...... noise and that practically all correlation to the climate variables are removed. Furthermore, the results show that the forecasting errors mainly are related to: unpredictable high frequency variations in the heat load signal (predominant only for some houses), shifts in resident behavior patterns...

Online short-term heat load forecasting for single family houses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

2013-01-01

. Every hour the hourly heat load for each house the following two days is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models and the climate inputs used are: ambient temperature, global radiation, and wind speed. A computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme is used......This paper presents a method for forecasting the load for heating in a single-family house. Both space and hot tap water heating are forecasted. The forecasting model is built using data from sixteen houses in Sønderborg, Denmark, combined with local climate measurements and weather forecasts...... variations in the heat load signal (predominant only for some houses), peaks presumably from showers, shifts in resident behavior, and uncertainty of the weather forecasts for longer horizons, especially for the solar radiation....

Energy management of a university campus utilizing short-term load forecasting with an artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Palchak, David

Electrical load forecasting is a tool that has been utilized by distribution designers and operators as a means for resource planning and generation dispatch. The techniques employed in these predictions are proving useful in the growing market of consumer, or end-user, participation in electrical energy consumption. These predictions are based on exogenous variables, such as weather, and time variables, such as day of week and time of day as well as prior energy consumption patterns. The participation of the end-user is a cornerstone of the Smart Grid initiative presented in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and is being made possible by the emergence of enabling technologies such as advanced metering infrastructure. The optimal application of the data provided by an advanced metering infrastructure is the primary motivation for the work done in this thesis. The methodology for using this data in an energy management scheme that utilizes a short-term load forecast is presented. The objective of this research is to quantify opportunities for a range of energy management and operation cost savings of a university campus through the use of a forecasted daily electrical load profile. The proposed algorithm for short-term load forecasting is optimized for Colorado State University's main campus, and utilizes an artificial neural network that accepts weather and time variables as inputs. The performance of the predicted daily electrical load is evaluated using a number of error measurements that seek to quantify the best application of the forecast. The energy management presented utilizes historical electrical load data from the local service provider to optimize the time of day that electrical loads are being managed. Finally, the utilization of forecasts in the presented energy management scenario is evaluated based on cost and energy savings.

Electrical Load Survey and Forecast for a Decentralized Hybrid ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Electrical Load Survey and Forecast for a Decentralized Hybrid Power System at Elebu, Kwara State, Nigeria. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... The paper reports the results of electrical load demand and forecast for Elebu rural community ...

Gas load forecasting based on optimized fuzzy c-mean clustering analysis of selecting similar days

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiu Jing

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Traditional fuzzy c-means (FCM clustering in short term load forecasting method is easy to fall into local optimum and is sensitive to the initial cluster center.In this paper,we propose to use global search feature of particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm to avoid these shortcomings,and to use FCM optimization to select similar date of forecast as training sample of support vector machines.This will not only strengthen the data rule of training samples,but also ensure the consistency of data characteristics.Experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of this prediction model is better than that of BP neural network and support vector machine (SVM algorithms.

Forecasting Strategies for Predicting Peak Electric Load Days

Science.gov (United States)

Saxena, Harshit

Academic institutions spend thousands of dollars every month on their electric power consumption. Some of these institutions follow a demand charges pricing structure; here the amount a customer pays to the utility is decided based on the total energy consumed during the month, with an additional charge based on the highest average power load required by the customer over a moving window of time as decided by the utility. Therefore, it is crucial for these institutions to minimize the time periods where a high amount of electric load is demanded over a short duration of time. In order to reduce the peak loads and have more uniform energy consumption, it is imperative to predict when these peaks occur, so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be developed. The research work presented in this thesis has been conducted for Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT), where the demand charges are decided based on a 15 minute sliding window panned over the entire month. This case study makes use of different statistical and machine learning algorithms to develop a forecasting strategy for predicting the peak electric load days of the month. The proposed strategy was tested for a whole year starting May 2015 to April 2016 during which a total of 57 peak days were observed. The model predicted a total of 74 peak days during this period, 40 of these cases were true positives, hence achieving an accuracy level of 70 percent. The results obtained with the proposed forecasting strategy are promising and demonstrate an annual savings potential worth about $80,000 for a single submeter of RIT.

Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid forecasting architecture and an improved bat algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao, Liye; Qian, Feng; Shao, Wei

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Propose a hybrid architecture based on a modified bat algorithm for multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Improve the accuracy of multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Modify bat algorithm with CG to improve optimized performance. - Abstract: As one of the most promising sustainable energy sources, wind energy plays an important role in energy development because of its cleanliness without causing pollution. Generally, wind speed forecasting, which has an essential influence on wind power systems, is regarded as a challenging task. Analyses based on single-step wind speed forecasting have been widely used, but their results are insufficient in ensuring the reliability and controllability of wind power systems. In this paper, a new forecasting architecture based on decomposing algorithms and modified neural networks is successfully developed for multi-step wind speed forecasting. Four different hybrid models are contained in this architecture, and to further improve the forecasting performance, a modified bat algorithm (BA) with the conjugate gradient (CG) method is developed to optimize the initial weights between layers and thresholds of the hidden layer of neural networks. To investigate the forecasting abilities of the four models, the wind speed data collected from four different wind power stations in Penglai, China, were used as a case study. The numerical experiments showed that the hybrid model including the singular spectrum analysis and general regression neural network with CG-BA (SSA-CG-BA-GRNN) achieved the most accurate forecasting results in one-step to three-step wind speed forecasting.

Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik

2016-01-01

methods for predicting the regimes are tested. The dynamic relation between the weather and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions and the non-linearities are described using spline functions. The results are thoroughly evaluated and it is shown that the spline functions are suitable...... for handling the non-linear relations and that after applying an auto-regressive noise model the one-step ahead residuals do not contain further significant information....... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 h. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modeled by a regime switching model and two different...

Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Lu

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and design. It is important for the economic operation and reliability assurance of power system. However, the results of load forecasting given by most existing methods are deterministic. This study aims at probabilistic load forecasting. First, the support vector machine regression is used to acquire the deterministic results of load forecasting with the consideration of human body amenity. Then the probabilistic load forecasting at a certain confidence level is given after the analysis of error distribution law corresponding to certain heat index interval. The final simulation shows that this probabilistic forecasting method is easy to implement and can provide more information than the deterministic forecasting results, and thus is helpful for decision-makers to make reasonable decisions.

Supplier Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Exogenous Input

Science.gov (United States)

Matijaš, Marin; Vukićcević, Milan; Krajcar, Slavko

2011-09-01

In power systems, task of load forecasting is important for keeping equilibrium between production and consumption. With liberalization of electricity markets, task of load forecasting changed because each market participant has to forecast their own load. Consumption of end-consumers is stochastic in nature. Due to competition, suppliers are not in a position to transfer their costs to end-consumers; therefore it is essential to keep forecasting error as low as possible. Numerous papers are investigating load forecasting from the perspective of the grid or production planning. We research forecasting models from the perspective of a supplier. In this paper, we investigate different combinations of exogenous input on the simulated supplier loads and show that using points of delivery as a feature for Support Vector Regression leads to lower forecasting error, while adding customer number in different datasets does the opposite.

Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seunghyoung Ryu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer’s electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN, a double seasonal Holt–Winters (DSHW model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and relative root mean square error (RRMSE are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragan Tasić

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In the deregulated energy market, the accuracy of load forecasting has a significant effect on the planning and operational decision making of utility companies. Electric load is a random non-stationary process influenced by a number of factors which make it difficult to model. To achieve better forecasting accuracy, a wide variety of models have been proposed. These models are based on different mathematical methods and offer different features. This paper presents a new two-stage approach for short-term electrical load forecasting based on least-squares support vector machines. With the aim of improving forecasting accuracy, one more feature was added to the model feature set, the next day average load demand. As this feature is unknown for one day ahead, in the first stage, forecasting of the next day average load demand is done and then used in the model in the second stage for next day hourly load forecasting. The effectiveness of the presented model is shown on the real data of the ISO New England electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity advantage of the proposed approach.

Multi nodal load forecasting in electric power systems using a radial basis neural network; Previsao de carga multinodal em sistemas eletricos de potencia usando uma rede neural de base radial

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Altran, A.B.; Lotufo, A.D.P.; Minussi, C.R. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Eletrica], Emails: lealtran@yahoo.com.br, annadiva@dee.feis.unesp.br, minussi@dee.feis.unesp.br; Lopes, M.L.M. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Matematica], E-mail: mara@mat.feis.unesp.br

2009-07-01

This paper presents a methodology for electrical load forecasting, using radial base functions as activation function in artificial neural networks with the training by backpropagation algorithm. This methodology is applied to short term electrical load forecasting (24 h ahead). Therefore, results are presented analyzing the use of radial base functions substituting the sigmoid function as activation function in multilayer perceptron neural networks. However, the main contribution of this paper is the proposal of a new formulation of load forecasting dedicated to the forecasting in several points of the electrical network, as well as considering several types of users (residential, commercial, industrial). It deals with the MLF (Multimodal Load Forecasting), with the same processing time as the GLF (Global Load Forecasting). (author)

Dynamical prediction and pattern mapping in short-term load forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aguirre, Luis Antonio; Rodrigues, Daniela D.; Lima, Silvio T. [Departamento de Engenharia Eletronica, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Martinez, Carlos Barreira [Departamento de Engenharia Hidraulica e Recursos Hidricos, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2008-01-15

This work will not put forward yet another scheme for short-term load forecasting but rather will provide evidences that may improve our understanding about fundamental issues which underlay load forecasting problems. In particular, load forecasting will be decomposed into two main problems, namely dynamical prediction and pattern mapping. It is argued that whereas the latter is essentially static and becomes nonlinear when weekly features in the data are taken into account, the former might not be deterministic at all. In such cases there is no determinism (serial correlations) in the data apart from the average cycle and the best a model can do is to perform pattern mapping. Moreover, when there is determinism in addition to the average cycle, the underlying dynamics are sometimes linear, in which case there is no need to resort to nonlinear models to perform dynamical prediction. Such conclusions were confirmed using real load data and surrogate data analysis. In a sense, the paper details and organizes some general beliefs found in the literature on load forecasting. This sheds some light on real model-building and forecasting problems and helps understand some apparently conflicting results reported in the literature. (author)

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the Analysis of User Electricity Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuancheng Li

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The smart meter is an important part of the smart grid, and in order to take full advantage of smart meter data, this paper mines the electricity behaviors of smart meter users to improve the accuracy of load forecasting. First, the typical day loads of users are calculated separately according to different date types (ordinary workdays, day before holidays, holidays. Second, the similarity between user electricity behaviors is mined and the user electricity loads are clustered to classify the users with similar behaviors into the same cluster. Finally, the load forecasting model based on the Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM is applied to different clusters to conduct load forecasting and the load forecast is summed to obtain the system load. In order to prove the validity of the proposed method, we performed simulation experiments on the MATLAB platform using smart meter data from the Ireland electric power cooperation. The experimental results show that the proposed method is able to mine the user electricity behaviors deeply, improve the accuracy of load forecasting by the reasonable clustering of users, and reveal the relationship between forecasting accuracy and cluster numbers.

A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suseelatha Annamareddi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

Efficient Resources Provisioning Based on Load Forecasting in Cloud

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongdong Hu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Cloud providers should ensure QoS while maximizing resources utilization. One optimal strategy is to timely allocate resources in a fine-grained mode according to application’s actual resources demand. The necessary precondition of this strategy is obtaining future load information in advance. We propose a multi-step-ahead load forecasting method, KSwSVR, based on statistical learning theory which is suitable for the complex and dynamic characteristics of the cloud computing environment. It integrates an improved support vector regression algorithm and Kalman smoother. Public trace data taken from multitypes of resources were used to verify its prediction accuracy, stability, and adaptability, comparing with AR, BPNN, and standard SVR. Subsequently, based on the predicted results, a simple and efficient strategy is proposed for resource provisioning. CPU allocation experiment indicated it can effectively reduce resources consumption while meeting service level agreements requirements.

A New Hybrid Model Based on Data Preprocessing and an Intelligent Optimization Algorithm for Electrical Power System Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Jiang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The establishment of electrical power system cannot only benefit the reasonable distribution and management in energy resources, but also satisfy the increasing demand for electricity. The electrical power system construction is often a pivotal part in the national and regional economic development plan. This paper constructs a hybrid model, known as the E-MFA-BP model, that can forecast indices in the electrical power system, including wind speed, electrical load, and electricity price. Firstly, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition can be applied to eliminate the noise of original time series data. After data preprocessing, the back propagation neural network model is applied to carry out the forecasting. Owing to the instability of its structure, the modified firefly algorithm is employed to optimize the weight and threshold values of back propagation to obtain a hybrid model with higher forecasting quality. Three experiments are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the model. Through comparison with other traditional well-known forecasting models, and models optimized by other optimization algorithms, the experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid model has the best forecasting performance.

Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-01-01

unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

Research on light rail electric load forecasting based on ARMA model

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yifan

2018-04-01

The article compares a variety of time series models and combines the characteristics of power load forecasting. Then, a light load forecasting model based on ARMA model is established. Based on this model, a light rail system is forecasted. The prediction results show that the accuracy of the model prediction is high.

A novel economy reflecting short-term load forecasting approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Cheng-Ting; Chou, Li-Der

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We combine MA line of TAIEX and SVR to overcome the load demands over-prediction problems caused by the economic downturn. ► The Taiwan island-wide electricity power system was used as the case study. ► Short- to middle-term MA lines of TAIEX are found to be good economic input variables for load forecasting models. - Abstract: The global economic downturn in 2008 and 2009, which was spurred by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, sharply reduced the demand for electricity load. Conventional load-forecasting approaches were unable to respond to sudden changes in the economy, because these approaches do not consider the effect of economic factors. Therefore, the over-prediction problem occurred. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a novel, economy-reflecting, short-term load forecasting (STLF) approach based on theories of moving average (MA) line of stock index and machine learning. In this approach, the stock indices decision model is designed to reflect fluctuations in the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) series, which is selected as an optimal input variable in support vector regression load forecasting model at an appropriate timing. The Taiwan island-wide hourly electricity load demands from 2008 to 2010 are used as the case study for performance benchmarking. Results show that the proposed approach with a 60-day MA of the TAIEX as economic learning pattern achieves good forecasting performance. It outperforms the conventional approach by 29.16% on average during economic downturn-affected days. Overall, the proposed approach successfully overcomes the over-prediction problems caused by the economic downturn. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to apply MA line theory of stock index on STLF.

Short-Term Load Forecast in Electric Energy System in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Asenova

2010-01-01

Full Text Available As the accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in providing better cost effective risk management plans, this paper proposes a Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF model with high forecasting accuracy. Two kind of neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron network model and Radial Basis Function network model, are presented and compared using the mean absolute percentage error. The data used in the models are electricity load historical data. Even though the very good performance of the used model for the load data, weather parameters, especially the temperature, take important part for the energy predicting which is taken into account in this paper. A comparative evaluation between a traditional statistical method and artificial neural networks is presented.

Parametric analysis of parameters for electrical-load forecasting using artificial neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, William J.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.; Georgiopoulos, Michael

1997-04-01

Accurate total system electrical load forecasting is a necessary part of resource management for power generation companies. The better the hourly load forecast, the more closely the power generation assets of the company can be configured to minimize the cost. Automating this process is a profitable goal and neural networks should provide an excellent means of doing the automation. However, prior to developing such a system, the optimal set of input parameters must be determined. The approach of this research was to determine what those inputs should be through a parametric study of potentially good inputs. Input parameters tested were ambient temperature, total electrical load, the day of the week, humidity, dew point temperature, daylight savings time, length of daylight, season, forecast light index and forecast wind velocity. For testing, a limited number of temperatures and total electrical loads were used as a basic reference input parameter set. Most parameters showed some forecasting improvement when added individually to the basic parameter set. Significantly, major improvements were exhibited with the day of the week, dew point temperatures, additional temperatures and loads, forecast light index and forecast wind velocity.

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Short term load forecasting: two stage modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SOARES, L. J.

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the Seattle, USA, called Puget Sound Power and Light Company. Our proposal is put into proof with the famous dataset from this company. We propose a stochastic model which employs ANN (Artificial Neural Networks to model short-run dynamics and the dependence among adjacent hours. The model proposed treats each hour's load separately as individual single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated in similiar mode a TLSAR (Two-Level Seasonal Autoregressive model proposed by Soares (2003 using the years of 1995 and 1996 as the holdout sample. Moreover, we conclude that non linearity is present in some series of these data. The model results are analyzed. The experiment shows that our tool can be used to produce load forecasting in tropical climate places.

The Impact of Distributed Generation Systems in the Load Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Benedicto Llorens, Juan Manuel

2009-01-01

Projecte fet en col.laboració amb l'Instituto Superior Tecnico. Universidade Técnica de Lisboa Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric industry in the deregulated economy. It has many applications including energy purchasing and generation, load switching, contract evaluation and infrastructure development. Because of this, a large variety of mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. In addition, the large-scale integration of wind power, now...

Lambda-Based Data Processing Architecture for Two-Level Load Forecasting in Residential Buildings

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Gde Dharma Nugraha

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Building energy management systems (BEMS have been intensively used to manage the electricity consumption of residential buildings more efficiently. However, the dynamic behavior of the occupants introduces uncertainty problems that affect the performance of the BEMS. To address this uncertainty problem, the BEMS may implement load forecasting as one of the BEMS modules. Load forecasting utilizes historical load data to compute model predictions for a specific time in the future. Recently, smart meters have been introduced to collect electricity consumption data. Smart meters not only capture aggregation data, but also individual data that is more frequently close to real-time. The processing of both smart meter data types for load forecasting can enhance the performance of the BEMS when confronted with uncertainty problems. The collection of smart meter data can be processed using a batch approach for short-term load forecasting, while the real-time smart meter data can be processed for very short-term load forecasting, which adjusts the short-term load forecasting to adapt to the dynamic behavior of the occupants. This approach requires different data processing techniques for aggregation and individual of smart meter data. In this paper, we propose Lambda-based data processing architecture to process the different types of smart meter data and implement the two-level load forecasting approach, which combines short-term and very short-term load forecasting techniques on top of our proposed data processing architecture. The proposed approach is expected to enhance the BEMS to address the uncertainty problem in order to process data in less time. Our experiment showed that the proposed approaches improved the accuracy by 7% compared to a typical BEMS with only one load forecasting technique, and had the lowest computation time when processing the smart meter data.

Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu [Department of Electrical and Electronics, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nagakami Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213 (Japan); Funabashi, Toshihisa [Meidensha Corporation, Tokyo 103-8515 (Japan)

2006-09-15

In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. (author)

Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Funabashi, Toshihisa

2006-01-01

In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6 h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy

Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Prieto

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting (STLF in buildings differs from its broader counterpart in that the load to be predicted does not seem to be stationary, seasonal and regular but, on the contrary, it may be subject to sudden changes and variations on its consumption behaviour. Classical STLF methods do not react fast enough to these perturbations (i.e., they are not robust and the literature on building STLF has not yet explored this area. Hereby, we evaluate a well-known post-processing method (Learning Window Reinitialization applied to two broadly-used STLF algorithms (Autoregressive Model and Support Vector Machines in buildings to check their adaptability and robustness. We have tested the proposed method with real-world data and our results state that this methodology is especially suited for buildings with non-regular consumption profiles, as classical STLF methods are enough to model regular-profiled ones.

Mixed price and load forecasting of electricity markets by a new iterative prediction method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Daraeepour, Ali

2009-01-01

Load and price forecasting are the two key issues for the participants of current electricity markets. However, load and price of electricity markets have complex characteristics such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and multiple seasonality, to name a few (usually, more volatility is seen in the behavior of electricity price signal). For these reasons, much research has been devoted to load and price forecast, especially in the recent years. However, previous research works in the area separately predict load and price signals. In this paper, a mixed model for load and price forecasting is presented, which can consider interactions of these two forecast processes. The mixed model is based on an iterative neural network based prediction technique. It is shown that the proposed model can present lower forecast errors for both load and price compared with the previous separate frameworks. Another advantage of the mixed model is that all required forecast features (from load or price) are predicted within the model without assuming known values for these features. So, the proposed model can better be adapted to real conditions of an electricity market. The forecast accuracy of the proposed mixed method is evaluated by means of real data from the New York and Spanish electricity markets. The method is also compared with some of the most recent load and price forecast techniques. (author)

Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yildiz Baran

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM, are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN, support vector machines (SVM and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some

Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

Science.gov (United States)

Yildiz, Baran; Bilbao, Jose I.; Dore, Jonathon; Sproul, Alistair B.

2018-05-01

Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM), are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some households vary

Application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System in Short Term Load Forecasting on Special Days

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agus Dharma

2011-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the application of Interval Type-2 fuzzy logic systems (Interval Type-2 FLS in short term load forecasting (STLF on special days, study case in Bali Indonesia. Type-2 FLS is characterized by a concept called footprint of uncertainty (FOU that provides the extra mathematical dimension that equips Type-2 FLS with the potential to outperform their Type-1 counterparts. While a Type-2 FLS has the capability to model more complex relationships, the output of a Type-2 fuzzy inference engine needs to be type-reduced. Type reduction is used by applying the Karnik-Mendel (KM iterative algorithm. This type reduction maps the output of Type-2 FSs into Type-1 FSs then the defuzzification with centroid method converts that Type-1 reduced FSs into a number. The proposed method was tested with the actual load data of special days using 4 days peak load before special days and at the time of special day for the year 2002-2006. There are 20 items of special days in Bali that are used to be forecasted in the year 2005 and 2006 respectively. The test results showed an accurate forecasting with the mean average percentage error of 1.0335% and 1.5683% in the year 2005 and 2006 respectively.

Advanced Intelligent System Application to Load Forecasting and Control for Hybrid Electric Bus

Science.gov (United States)

Momoh, James; Chattopadhyay, Deb; Elfayoumy, Mahmoud

1996-01-01

The primary motivation for this research emanates from providing a decision support system to the electric bus operators in the municipal and urban localities which will guide the operators to maintain an optimal compromise among the noise level, pollution level, fuel usage etc. This study is backed up by our previous studies on study of battery characteristics, permanent magnet DC motor studies and electric traction motor size studies completed in the first year. The operator of the Hybrid Electric Car must determine optimal power management schedule to meet a given load demand for different weather and road conditions. The decision support system for the bus operator comprises three sub-tasks viz. forecast of the electrical load for the route to be traversed divided into specified time periods (few minutes); deriving an optimal 'plan' or 'preschedule' based on the load forecast for the entire time-horizon (i.e., for all time periods) ahead of time; and finally employing corrective control action to monitor and modify the optimal plan in real-time. A fully connected artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for forecasting the kW requirement for hybrid electric bus based on inputs like climatic conditions, passenger load, road inclination, etc. The ANN model is trained using back-propagation algorithm employing improved optimization techniques like projected Lagrangian technique. The pre-scheduler is based on a Goal-Programming (GP) optimization model with noise, pollution and fuel usage as the three objectives. GP has the capability of analyzing the trade-off among the conflicting objectives and arriving at the optimal activity levels, e.g., throttle settings. The corrective control action or the third sub-task is formulated as an optimal control model with inputs from the real-time data base as well as the GP model to minimize the error (or deviation) from the optimal plan. These three activities linked with the ANN forecaster proving the output to the

Boosting Learning Algorithm for Stock Price Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chengzhang; Bai, Xiaoming

2018-03-01

To tackle complexity and uncertainty of stock market behavior, more studies have introduced machine learning algorithms to forecast stock price. ANN (artificial neural network) is one of the most successful and promising applications. We propose a boosting-ANN model in this paper to predict the stock close price. On the basis of boosting theory, multiple weak predicting machines, i.e. ANNs, are assembled to build a stronger predictor, i.e. boosting-ANN model. New error criteria of the weak studying machine and rules of weights updating are adopted in this study. We select technical factors from financial markets as forecasting input variables. Final results demonstrate the boosting-ANN model works better than other ones for stock price forecasting.

Online short-term forecast of greenhouse heat load using a weather forecast service

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogler-Finck, P. J.C.; Bacher, P.; Madsen, Henrik

2017-01-01

the performance of recursive least squares for predicting the heat load of individual greenhouses in an online manner. Predictor inputs (weekly curves terms and weather forecast inputs) are selected in an automated manner using a forward selection approach. Historical load measurements from 5 Danish greenhouses...... mean square error of the prediction was within 8–20% of the peak load for the set of consumers over the 8 months period considered....

Mutual Information-Based Inputs Selection for Electric Load Time Series Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nenad Floranović

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Providing accurate load forecast to electric utility corporations is essential in order to reduce their operational costs and increase profits. Hence, training set selection is an important preprocessing step which has to be considered in practice in order to increase the accuracy of load forecasts. The usage of mutual information (MI has been recently proposed in regression tasks, mostly for feature selection and for identifying the real instances from training sets that contains noise and outliers. This paper proposes a methodology for the training set selection in a least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs load forecasting model. A new application of the concept of MI is presented for the selection of a training set based on MI computation between initial training set instances and testing set instances. Accordingly, several LS-SVMs models have been trained, based on the proposed methodology, for hourly prediction of electric load for one day ahead. The results obtained from a real-world data set indicate that the proposed method increases the accuracy of load forecasting as well as reduces the size of the initial training set needed for model training.

Least square regression based integrated multi-parameteric demand modeling for short term load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halepoto, I.A.; Uqaili, M.A.

2014-01-01

Nowadays, due to power crisis, electricity demand forecasting is deemed an important area for socioeconomic development and proper anticipation of the load forecasting is considered essential step towards efficient power system operation, scheduling and planning. In this paper, we present STLF (Short Term Load Forecasting) using multiple regression techniques (i.e. linear, multiple linear, quadratic and exponential) by considering hour by hour load model based on specific targeted day approach with temperature variant parameter. The proposed work forecasts the future load demand correlation with linear and non-linear parameters (i.e. considering temperature in our case) through different regression approaches. The overall load forecasting error is 2.98% which is very much acceptable. From proposed regression techniques, Quadratic Regression technique performs better compared to than other techniques because it can optimally fit broad range of functions and data sets. The work proposed in this paper, will pave a path to effectively forecast the specific day load with multiple variance factors in a way that optimal accuracy can be maintained. (author)

A Simplified Short Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Sequential Patterns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

2014-01-01

Load forecasting is an essential part of a power system both for planning and daily operation purposes. As far as the latter is concerned, short term load forecasting has been broadly used at the transmission level. However, recent technological advancements and legislation have facilitated the i...... in comparison with an ARIMA model....

Robust Building Energy Load Forecasting Using Physically-Based Kernel Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anand Krishnan Prakash

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Robust and accurate building energy load forecasting is important for helping building managers and utilities to plan, budget, and strategize energy resources in advance. With recent prevalent adoption of smart-meters in buildings, a significant amount of building energy consumption data became available. Many studies have developed physics-based white box models and data-driven black box models to predict building energy consumption; however, they require extensive prior knowledge about building system, need a large set of training data, or lack robustness to different forecasting scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a new building energy forecasting method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR that incorporates physical insights about load data characteristics to improve accuracy while reducing training requirements. The GPR is a non-parametric regression method that models the data as a joint Gaussian distribution with mean and covariance functions and forecast using the Bayesian updating. We model the covariance function of the GPR to reflect the data patterns in different forecasting horizon scenarios, as prior knowledge. Our method takes advantage of the modeling flexibility and computational efficiency of the GPR while benefiting from the physical insights to further improve the training efficiency and accuracy. We evaluate our method with three field datasets from two university campuses (Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University for both short- and long-term load forecasting. The results show that our method performs more accurately, especially when the training dataset is small, compared to other state-of-the-art forecasting models (up to 2.95 times smaller prediction error.

Four wind speed multi-step forecasting models using extreme learning machines and signal decomposing algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid architecture is proposed for the wind speed forecasting. • Four algorithms are used for the wind speed multi-scale decomposition. • The extreme learning machines are employed for the wind speed forecasting. • All the proposed hybrid models can generate the accurate results. - Abstract: Realization of accurate wind speed forecasting is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, a new hybrid forecasting architecture is proposed to realize the wind speed accurate forecasting. In this architecture, four different hybrid models are presented by combining four signal decomposing algorithms (e.g., Wavelet Decomposition/Wavelet Packet Decomposition/Empirical Mode Decomposition/Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) and Extreme Learning Machines. The originality of the study is to investigate the promoted percentages of the Extreme Learning Machines by those mainstream signal decomposing algorithms in the multiple step wind speed forecasting. The results of two forecasting experiments indicate that: (1) the method of Extreme Learning Machines is suitable for the wind speed forecasting; (2) by utilizing the decomposing algorithms, all the proposed hybrid algorithms have better performance than the single Extreme Learning Machines; (3) in the comparisons of the decomposing algorithms in the proposed hybrid architecture, the Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition has the best performance in the three-step forecasting results while the Wavelet Packet Decomposition has the best performance in the one and two step forecasting results. At the same time, the Wavelet Packet Decomposition and the Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition are better than the Wavelet Decomposition and the Empirical Mode Decomposition in all the step predictions, respectively; and (4) the proposed algorithms are effective in the wind speed accurate predictions

Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Mansor, Rosnalini; Zulkifli, Malina; Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Ismail, Mohd Isfahani; Ismail, Suzilah; Yin, Yip Chee

2014-12-01

Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in the model. Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.

Forecasting loads and prices in competitive power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2000-01-01

This paper provides a review of some of the main methodological issues and techniques which have become innovative in addressing the problem of forecasting daily loads and prices in the new competitive power markets. Particular emphasis is placed upon computationally intensive methods, including variable segmentation, multiple modeling, combinations, and neural networks for forecasting the demand side, and strategic simulation using artificial agents for the supply side

Clustered K nearest neighbor algorithm for daily inflow forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Akbari, M.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Afshar, A.

2010-01-01

Instance based learning (IBL) algorithms are a common choice among data driven algorithms for inflow forecasting. They are based on the similarity principle and prediction is made by the finite number of similar neighbors. In this sense, the similarity of a query instance is estimated according to

1991 Pacific Northwest loads and resources study, Pacific Northwest economic and electricity use forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This publication provides detailed documentation of the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used in preparing BPA's 1991 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study (the Study). This is one of two technical appendices to the Study; the other appendix details the utility-specific loads and resources used in the Study. The load forecasts and assumption were developed jointly by Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Northwest Power Planning Council (Council) staff. This forecast is also used in the Council's 1991 Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan (1991 Plan)

Machine learning based switching model for electricity load forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fan, Shu; Lee, Wei-Jen [Energy Systems Research Center, The University of Texas at Arlington, 416 S. College Street, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Chen, Luonan [Department of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineering, Osaka Sangyo University, 3-1-1 Nakagaito, Daito, Osaka 574-0013 (Japan)

2008-06-15

In deregulated power markets, forecasting electricity loads is one of the most essential tasks for system planning, operation and decision making. Based on an integration of two machine learning techniques: Bayesian clustering by dynamics (BCD) and support vector regression (SVR), this paper proposes a novel forecasting model for day ahead electricity load forecasting. The proposed model adopts an integrated architecture to handle the non-stationarity of time series. Firstly, a BCD classifier is applied to cluster the input data set into several subsets by the dynamics of the time series in an unsupervised manner. Then, groups of SVRs are used to fit the training data of each subset in a supervised way. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated with actual data taken from the New York ISO and the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in Oklahoma. (author)

Machine learning based switching model for electricity load forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fan Shu [Energy Systems Research Center, University of Texas at Arlington, 416 S. College Street, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Chen Luonan [Department of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineering, Osaka Sangyo University, 3-1-1 Nakagaito, Daito, Osaka 574-0013 (Japan); Lee, Weijen [Energy Systems Research Center, University of Texas at Arlington, 416 S. College Street, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States)], E-mail: wlee@uta.edu

2008-06-15

In deregulated power markets, forecasting electricity loads is one of the most essential tasks for system planning, operation and decision making. Based on an integration of two machine learning techniques: Bayesian clustering by dynamics (BCD) and support vector regression (SVR), this paper proposes a novel forecasting model for day ahead electricity load forecasting. The proposed model adopts an integrated architecture to handle the non-stationarity of time series. Firstly, a BCD classifier is applied to cluster the input data set into several subsets by the dynamics of the time series in an unsupervised manner. Then, groups of SVRs are used to fit the training data of each subset in a supervised way. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated with actual data taken from the New York ISO and the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in Oklahoma.

Machine learning based switching model for electricity load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan Shu; Chen Luonan; Lee, Weijen

2008-01-01

In deregulated power markets, forecasting electricity loads is one of the most essential tasks for system planning, operation and decision making. Based on an integration of two machine learning techniques: Bayesian clustering by dynamics (BCD) and support vector regression (SVR), this paper proposes a novel forecasting model for day ahead electricity load forecasting. The proposed model adopts an integrated architecture to handle the non-stationarity of time series. Firstly, a BCD classifier is applied to cluster the input data set into several subsets by the dynamics of the time series in an unsupervised manner. Then, groups of SVRs are used to fit the training data of each subset in a supervised way. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated with actual data taken from the New York ISO and the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in Oklahoma

Daily Nigerian peak load forecasting using artificial neural network ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A daily peak load forecasting technique that uses artificial neural network with seasonal indices is presented in this paper. A neural network of relatively smaller size than the main prediction network is used to predict the daily peak load for a period of one year over which the actual daily load data are available using one ...

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01

features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herui Cui

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

Star point centroid algorithm based on background forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin; Zhao, Rujin; Zhu, Nan

2014-09-01

The calculation of star point centroid is a key step of improving star tracker measuring error. A star map photoed by APS detector includes several noises which have a great impact on veracity of calculation of star point centroid. Through analysis of characteristic of star map noise, an algorithm of calculation of star point centroid based on background forecast is presented in this paper. The experiment proves the validity of the algorithm. Comparing with classic algorithm, this algorithm not only improves veracity of calculation of star point centroid, but also does not need calibration data memory. This algorithm is applied successfully in a certain star tracker.

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Buitrago

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX. The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

Theory Study and Application of the BP-ANN Method for Power Grid Short-Term Load Forecasting

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xia Hua; Gang Zhang; Jiawei Yang; Zhengyuan Li

2015-01-01

Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short⁃term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back⁃propagation artifi⁃cial neural network (BP⁃ANN) based method for short⁃term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are re⁃lated to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long⁃term historical load data. Then the short⁃term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid (China) based on BP⁃ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP⁃ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.

Forecasting electric demand of distribution system planing in rural and sparsely populated regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Willis, H.L.; Buri, M.J. [ABB Automated Distribution Div., Raleigh, NC (United States); Finley, L.A. [Snohomish County PUD, Everett, WA (United States)

1995-11-01

Modern computerized distribution load forecasting methods, although accurate when applied to urban areas, give somewhat less satisfactory results when forecasting load growth in sparsely populated rural areas. This paper examines the differences between rural and urban load growth histories, identifying a major difference in the observed behavior of load growth. This difference is exploited in a new simulation forecasting algorithm. Tests show the new method is as accurate in forecasting rural load growth and as useful for analyzing DSM impacts than past methods, while requiring considerably lower computer resources and data than other simulation methods of comparable accuracy.

Support Vector Regression Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Auto Regression for Electric Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong-Juan Li

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Electric load forecasting is an important issue for a power utility, associated with the management of daily operations such as energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment, and load dispatch. Inspired by strong non-linear learning capability of support vector regression (SVR, this paper presents a SVR model hybridized with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD method and auto regression (AR for electric load forecasting. The electric load data of the New South Wales (Australia market are employed for comparing the forecasting performances of different forecasting models. The results confirm the validity of the idea that the proposed model can simultaneously provide forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability.

Short-Term Solar Forecasting Performance of Popular Machine Learning Algorithms: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elgindy, Tarek [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobbs, Alex [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-03

A framework for assessing the performance of short-term solar forecasting is presented in conjunction with a range of numerical results using global horizontal irradiation (GHI) from the open-source Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) data network. A suite of popular machine learning algorithms is compared according to a set of statistically distinct metrics and benchmarked against the persistence-of-cloudiness forecast and a cloud motion forecast. Results show significant improvement compared to the benchmarks with trade-offs among the machine learning algorithms depending on the desired error metric. Training inputs include time series observations of GHI for a history of years, historical weather and atmospheric measurements, and corresponding date and time stamps such that training sensitivities might be inferred. Prediction outputs are GHI forecasts for 1, 2, 3, and 4 hours ahead of the issue time, and they are made for every month of the year for 7 locations. Photovoltaic power and energy outputs can then be made using the solar forecasts to better understand power system impacts.

Short-term electric load forecasting using computational intelligence methods

OpenAIRE

Jurado, Sergio; Peralta, J.; Nebot, Àngela; Mugica, Francisco; Cortez, Paulo

2013-01-01

Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and organizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce several methods for short-term electric load forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: Random Forest, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks, Evolutionary Support Vector Machines and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. The performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified with several experiments carried out...

Genetic Algorithms vs. Artificial Neural Networks in Economic Forecasting Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae Morariu

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to describe the implementa-tion of a neural network and a genetic algorithm system in order to forecast certain economic indicators of a free market economy. In a free market economy forecasting process precedes the economic planning (a management function, providing important information for the result of the last process. Forecasting represents a starting point in setting of target for a firm, an organization or even a branch of the economy. Thus, the forecasting method used can influence in a significant mode the evolution of an entity. In the following we will describe the forecasting of an economic indicator using two intelligent systems. The difference between the results obtained by this two systems are described in chapter IV.

Short-term load forecasting with increment regression tree

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Jingfei; Stenzel, Juergen [Darmstadt University of Techonology, Darmstadt 64283 (Germany)

2006-06-15

This paper presents a new regression tree method for short-term load forecasting. Both increment and non-increment tree are built according to the historical data to provide the data space partition and input variable selection. Support vector machine is employed to the samples of regression tree nodes for further fine regression. Results of different tree nodes are integrated through weighted average method to obtain the comprehensive forecasting result. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through its application to an actual system. (author)

Analyzing and Forecasting Electrical Load Consumption in Healthcare Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodolfo Gordillo-Orquera

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Healthcare buildings exhibit a different electrical load predictability depending on their size and nature. Large hospitals behave similarly to small cities, whereas primary care centers are expected to have different consumption dynamics. In this work, we jointly analyze the electrical load predictability of a large hospital and that of its associated primary care center. An unsupervised load forecasting scheme using combined classic methods of principal component analysis (PCA and autoregressive (AR modeling, as well as a supervised scheme using orthonormal partial least squares (OPLS, are proposed. Both methods reduce the dimensionality of the data to create an efficient and low-complexity data representation and eliminate noise subspaces. Because the former method tended to underestimate the load and the latter tended to overestimate it in the large hospital, we also propose a convex combination of both to further reduce the forecasting error. The analysis of data from 7 years in the hospital and 3 years in the primary care center shows that the proposed low-complexity dynamic models are flexible enough to predict both types of consumption at practical accuracy levels.

The Astringency of the GP Algorithm for Forecasting Software Failure Data Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong-qiang Zhang

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The forecasting of software failure data series by Genetic Programming (GP can be realized without any assumptions before modeling. This discovery has transformed traditional statistical modeling methods as well as improved consistency for model applicability. The individuals' different characteristics during the evolution of generations, which are randomly changeable, are treated as Markov random processes. This paper also proposes that a GP algorithm with "optimal individuals reserved strategy" is the best solution to this problem, and therefore the adaptive individuals finally will be evolved. This will allow practical applications in software reliability modeling analysis and forecasting for failure behaviors. Moreover it can verify the feasibility and availability of the GP algorithm, which is applied to software failure data series forecasting on a theoretical basis. The results show that the GP algorithm is the best solution for software failure behaviors in a variety of disciplines.

Short term load forecasting technique based on the seasonal exponential adjustment method and the regression model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jie; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan; Dong, Yao; Lu, Xiaoxiao

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► The seasonal and trend items of the data series are forecasted separately. ► Seasonal item in the data series is verified by the Kendall τ correlation testing. ► Different regression models are applied to the trend item forecasting. ► We examine the superiority of the combined models by the quartile value comparison. ► Paired-sample T test is utilized to confirm the superiority of the combined models. - Abstract: For an energy-limited economy system, it is crucial to forecast load demand accurately. This paper devotes to 1-week-ahead daily load forecasting approach in which load demand series are predicted by employing the information of days before being similar to that of the forecast day. As well as in many nonlinear systems, seasonal item and trend item are coexisting in load demand datasets. In this paper, the existing of the seasonal item in the load demand data series is firstly verified according to the Kendall τ correlation testing method. Then in the belief of the separate forecasting to the seasonal item and the trend item would improve the forecasting accuracy, hybrid models by combining seasonal exponential adjustment method (SEAM) with the regression methods are proposed in this paper, where SEAM and the regression models are employed to seasonal and trend items forecasting respectively. Comparisons of the quartile values as well as the mean absolute percentage error values demonstrate this forecasting technique can significantly improve the accuracy though models applied to the trend item forecasting are eleven different ones. This superior performance of this separate forecasting technique is further confirmed by the paired-sample T tests

Implementation of Automatic Clustering Algorithm and Fuzzy Time Series in Motorcycle Sales Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Rasim; Junaeti, E.; Wirantika, R.

2018-01-01

Accurate forecasting for the sale of a product depends on the forecasting method used. The purpose of this research is to build motorcycle sales forecasting application using Fuzzy Time Series method combined with interval determination using automatic clustering algorithm. Forecasting is done using the sales data of motorcycle sales in the last ten years. Then the error rate of forecasting is measured using Means Percentage Error (MPE) and Means Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of forecasting in the one-year period obtained in this study are included in good accuracy.

Forecasting Energy CO2 Emissions Using a Quantum Harmony Search Algorithm-Based DMSFE Combination Model

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Xingsheng Gu

2013-03-01

Full Text Available he accurate forecasting of carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions from fossil fuel energy consumption is a key requirement for making energy policy and environmental strategy. In this paper, a novel quantum harmony search (QHS algorithm-based discounted mean square forecast error (DMSFE combination model is proposed. In the DMSFE combination forecasting model, almost all investigations assign the discounting factor (β arbitrarily since β varies between 0 and 1 and adopt one value for all individual models and forecasting periods. The original method doesn’t consider the influences of the individual model and the forecasting period. This work contributes by changing β from one value to a matrix taking the different model and the forecasting period into consideration and presenting a way of searching for the optimal β values by using the QHS algorithm through optimizing the mean absolute percent error (MAPE objective function. The QHS algorithm-based optimization DMSFE combination forecasting model is established and tested by forecasting CO2 emission of the World top‒5 CO2 emitters. The evaluation indexes such as MAPE, root mean squared error (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE are employed to test the performance of the presented approach. The empirical analyses confirm the validity of the presented method and the forecasting accuracy can be increased in a certain degree.

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression Optimized by Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm

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Jianzhou Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper develops an effectively intelligent model to forecast short-term wind speed series. A hybrid forecasting technique is proposed based on recurrence plot (RP and optimized support vector regression (SVR. Wind caused by the interaction of meteorological systems makes itself extremely unsteady and difficult to forecast. To understand the wind system, the wind speed series is analyzed using RP. Then, the SVR model is employed to forecast wind speed, in which the input variables are selected by RP, and two crucial parameters, including the penalties factor and gamma of the kernel function RBF, are optimized by various optimization algorithms. Those optimized algorithms are genetic algorithm (GA, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO, and cuckoo optimization algorithm (COA. Finally, the optimized SVR models, including COA-SVR, PSO-SVR, and GA-SVR, are evaluated based on some criteria and a hypothesis test. The experimental results show that (1 analysis of RP reveals that wind speed has short-term predictability on a short-term time scale, (2 the performance of the COA-SVR model is superior to that of the PSO-SVR and GA-SVR methods, especially for the jumping samplings, and (3 the COA-SVR method is statistically robust in multi-step-ahead prediction and can be applied to practical wind farm applications.

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Yannan; Hou, Zhangshuan; Meng, Da; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu

2016-07-17

In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.

Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

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Radziukynas V.

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011 and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023.

Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Radziukynas, V.; Klementavičius, A.

2016-04-01

The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

Changes in forecasting of HV/MV transformer loading due to distributed generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berende, M.J.C.; Ruiter, de A.; Morren, J.

2013-01-01

This paper describes how Enexis, one of the largest distribution network operators in the Netherlands, has adapted its load forecasting method for HV/MV-transformers to incorporate the influence of distributed generation. This new method involves the making of separate forecasts for demand and

Research and Application of Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on an Optimal Feature Selection System—A Case Study on Electrical Load Forecasting

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Yunxuan Dong

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The process of modernizing smart grid prominently increases the complexity and uncertainty in scheduling and operation of power systems, and, in order to develop a more reliable, flexible, efficient and resilient grid, electrical load forecasting is not only an important key but is still a difficult and challenging task as well. In this paper, a short-term electrical load forecasting model, with a unit for feature learning named Pyramid System and recurrent neural networks, has been developed and it can effectively promote the stability and security of the power grid. Nine types of methods for feature learning are compared in this work to select the best one for learning target, and two criteria have been employed to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction intervals. Furthermore, an electrical load forecasting method based on recurrent neural networks has been formed to achieve the relational diagram of historical data, and, to be specific, the proposed techniques are applied to electrical load forecasting using the data collected from New South Wales, Australia. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid models can not only satisfactorily approximate the actual value but they are also able to be effective tools in the planning of smart grids.

LOAD FORECASTING FOR POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND OPERATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AT AL BATINAH REGION OMAN

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HUSSEIN A. ABDULQADER

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Load forecasting is essential part for the power system planning and operation. In this paper the modeling and design of artificial neural network for load forecasting is carried out in a particular region of Oman. Neural network approach helps to reduce the problem associated with conventional method and has the advantage of learning directly from the historical data. The neural network here uses data such as past load; weather information like humidity and temperatures. Once the neural network is trained for the past set of data it can give a prediction of future load. This reduces the capital investment reducing the equipments to be installed. The actual data are taken from the Mazoon Electrical Company, Oman. The data of load for the year 2007, 2008 and 2009 are collected for a particular region called Al Batinah in Oman and trained using neural networks to forecast the future. The main objective is to forecast the amount of electricity needed for better load distribution in the areas of this region in Oman. The load forecasting is done for the year 2010 and is validated for the accuracy.

Electricity demand load forecasting of the Hellenic power system using an ARMA model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pappas, S.Sp. [ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education Department of Electrical Engineering Educators N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E.; Skafidas, P.D. [ASPETE-School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karampelas, P. [Hellenic American University, IT Department, 12 Kaplanon Str., 106 80 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24 100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [University of Piraeus, Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, 150 Androutsou St., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece)

2010-03-15

Effective modeling and forecasting requires the efficient use of the information contained in the available data so that essential data properties can be extracted and projected into the future. As far as electricity demand load forecasting is concerned time series analysis has the advantage of being statistically adaptive to data characteristics compared to econometric methods which quite often are subject to errors and uncertainties in model specification and knowledge of causal variables. This paper presents a new method for electricity demand load forecasting using the multi-model partitioning theory and compares its performance with three other well established time series analysis techniques namely Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICC), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The suitability of the proposed method is illustrated through an application to actual electricity demand load of the Hellenic power system, proving the reliability and the effectiveness of the method and making clear its usefulness in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)

Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danladi Ali

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

Wind power forecast using wavelet neural network trained by improved Clonal selection algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chitsaz, Hamed; Amjady, Nima; Zareipour, Hamidreza

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Presenting a Morlet wavelet neural network for wind power forecasting. • Proposing improved Clonal selection algorithm for training the model. • Applying Maximum Correntropy Criterion to evaluate the training performance. • Extensive testing of the proposed wind power forecast method on real-world data. - Abstract: With the integration of wind farms into electric power grids, an accurate wind power prediction is becoming increasingly important for the operation of these power plants. In this paper, a new forecasting engine for wind power prediction is proposed. The proposed engine has the structure of Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) with the activation functions of the hidden neurons constructed based on multi-dimensional Morlet wavelets. This forecast engine is trained by a new improved Clonal selection algorithm, which optimizes the free parameters of the WNN for wind power prediction. Furthermore, Maximum Correntropy Criterion (MCC) has been utilized instead of Mean Squared Error as the error measure in training phase of the forecasting model. The proposed wind power forecaster is tested with real-world hourly data of system level wind power generation in Alberta, Canada. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, it is compared with several other wind power forecast techniques. The obtained results confirm the validity of the developed approach

Energy demand forecasting in Iranian metal industry using linear and nonlinear models based on evolutionary algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piltan, Mehdi; Shiri, Hiva; Ghaderi, S.F.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Investigating different fitness functions for evolutionary algorithms in energy forecasting. ► Energy forecasting of Iranian metal industry by value added, energy prices, investment and employees. ► Using real-coded instead of binary-coded genetic algorithm decreases energy forecasting error. - Abstract: Developing energy-forecasting models is known as one of the most important steps in long-term planning. In order to achieve sustainable energy supply toward economic development and social welfare, it is required to apply precise forecasting model. Applying artificial intelligent models for estimation complex economic and social functions is growing up considerably in many researches recently. In this paper, energy consumption in industrial sector as one of the critical sectors in the consumption of energy has been investigated. Two linear and three nonlinear functions have been used in order to forecast and analyze energy in the Iranian metal industry, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied to attain parameters of the models. The Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) has been developed based on real numbers, which is introduced as a new approach in the field of energy forecasting. In the proposed model, electricity consumption has been considered as a function of different variables such as electricity tariff, manufacturing value added, prevailing fuel prices, the number of employees, the investment in equipment and consumption in the previous years. Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) are the four functions which have been used as the fitness function in the evolutionary algorithms. The results show that the logarithmic nonlinear model using PSO algorithm with 1.91 error percentage has the best answer. Furthermore, the prediction of electricity consumption in industrial sector of Turkey and also Turkish industrial sector

Forecasting Jakarta composite index (IHSG) based on chen fuzzy time series and firefly clustering algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Ningrum, R. W.; Surarso, B.; Farikhin; Safarudin, Y. M.

2018-03-01

This paper proposes the combination of Firefly Algorithm (FA) and Chen Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting. Most of the existing fuzzy forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series use the static length of intervals. Therefore, we apply an artificial intelligence, i.e., Firefly Algorithm (FA) to set non-stationary length of intervals for each cluster on Chen Method. The method is evaluated by applying on the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and compare with classical Chen Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting. Its performance verified through simulation using Matlab.

MVDR Algorithm Based on Estimated Diagonal Loading for Beamforming

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Yuteng Xiao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Beamforming algorithm is widely used in many signal processing fields. At present, the typical beamforming algorithm is MVDR (Minimum Variance Distortionless Response. However, the performance of MVDR algorithm relies on the accurate covariance matrix. The MVDR algorithm declines dramatically with the inaccurate covariance matrix. To solve the problem, studying the beamforming array signal model and beamforming MVDR algorithm, we improve MVDR algorithm based on estimated diagonal loading for beamforming. MVDR optimization model based on diagonal loading compensation is established and the interval of the diagonal loading compensation value is deduced on the basis of the matrix theory. The optimal diagonal loading value in the interval is also determined through the experimental method. The experimental results show that the algorithm compared with existing algorithms is practical and effective.

Decoupling Weather Influence from User Habits for an Optimal Electric Load Forecast System

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Luca Massidda

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The balance between production and consumption in a smart grid with high penetration of renewable sources and in the presence of energy storage systems benefits from an accurate load prediction. A general approach to load forecasting is not possible because of the additional complication due to the increasing presence of distributed and usually unmeasured photovoltaic production. Various methods are proposed in the literature that can be classified into two classes: those that predict by separating the portion of load due to consumption habits from the part of production due to local weather conditions, and those that attempt to predict the load as a whole. The characteristic that should lead to a preference for one approach over another is obviously the percentage of penetration of distributed production. The study site discussed in this document is the grid of Borkum, an island located in the North Sea. The advantages in terms of reducing forecasting errors for the electrical load, which can be obtained by using weather information, are explained. In particular, when comparing the results of different approaches gradually introducing weather forecasts, it is clear that the correct functional dependency of production has to be taken into account in order to obtain maximum yield from the available information. Where possible, this approach can significantly improve the quality of the forecasts, which in turn can improve the balance of a network—especially if energy storage systems are in place.

Day-ahead residential load forecasting with artificial neural network using smart meter data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asare-Bediako, B.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

2013-01-01

Load forecasting is an important operational procedure for the electric industry particularly in a liberalized, deregulated environment. It enables the prediction of utilization of assets, provides input for load/supply balancing and supports optimal energy utilization. Current residential load

An algorithm of Saxena-Easo on fuzzy time series forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Ramadhani, L. C.; Anggraeni, D.; Kamsyakawuni, A.; Hadi, A. F.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a forecast model of Saxena-Easo fuzzy time series prediction to study the prediction of Indonesia inflation rate in 1970-2016. We use MATLAB software to compute this method. The algorithm of Saxena-Easo fuzzy time series doesn’t need stationarity like conventional forecasting method, capable of dealing with the value of time series which are linguistic and has the advantage of reducing the calculation, time and simplifying the calculation process. Generally it’s focus on percentage change as the universe discourse, interval partition and defuzzification. The result indicate that between the actual data and the forecast data are close enough with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 1.5289.

Towards smart energy systems: application of kernel machine regression for medium term electricity load forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Bargiotas, Dimitrios; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H

2016-01-01

Integration of energy systems with information technologies has facilitated the realization of smart energy systems that utilize information to optimize system operation. To that end, crucial in optimizing energy system operation is the accurate, ahead-of-time forecasting of load demand. In particular, load forecasting allows planning of system expansion, and decision making for enhancing system safety and reliability. In this paper, the application of two types of kernel machines for medium term load forecasting (MTLF) is presented and their performance is recorded based on a set of historical electricity load demand data. The two kernel machine models and more specifically Gaussian process regression (GPR) and relevance vector regression (RVR) are utilized for making predictions over future load demand. Both models, i.e., GPR and RVR, are equipped with a Gaussian kernel and are tested on daily predictions for a 30-day-ahead horizon taken from the New England Area. Furthermore, their performance is compared to the ARMA(2,2) model with respect to mean average percentage error and squared correlation coefficient. Results demonstrate the superiority of RVR over the other forecasting models in performing MTLF.

A flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Khakestani, M.; Saberi, M.

2009-01-01

Oil consumption plays a vital role in socio-economic development of most countries. This study presents a flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption based on standard economic indicators. The standard indicators are annual population, cost of crude oil import, gross domestic production (GDP) and annual oil production in the last period. The proposed algorithm uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select either fuzzy regression or conventional regression for future demand estimation. The significance of the proposed algorithm is three fold. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and minimum absolute percentage error (MAPE), whereas previous studies consider the best fitted fuzzy regression model based on MAPE or other relative error results. Second, the proposed model may identify conventional regression as the best model for future oil consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that fuzzy regression always provide the best solutions and estimation. Third, it utilizes the most standard independent variables for the regression models. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed flexible fuzzy regression algorithm the data for oil consumption in Canada, United States, Japan and Australia from 1990 to 2005 are used. The results show that the flexible algorithm provides accurate solution for oil consumption estimation problem. The algorithm may be used by policy makers to accurately foresee the behavior of oil consumption in various regions.

A new wind speed forecasting strategy based on the chaotic time series modelling technique and the Apriori algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Zhenhai; Chi, Dezhong; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Wenyu

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Impact of meteorological factors on wind speed forecasting is taken into account. • Forecasted wind speed results are corrected by the associated rules. • Forecasting accuracy is improved by the new wind speed forecasting strategy. • Robust of the proposed model is validated by data sampled from different sites. - Abstract: Wind energy has been the fastest growing renewable energy resource in recent years. Because of the intermittent nature of wind, wind power is a fluctuating source of electrical energy. Therefore, to minimize the impact of wind power on the electrical grid, accurate and reliable wind power forecasting is mandatory. In this paper, a new wind speed forecasting approach based on based on the chaotic time series modelling technique and the Apriori algorithm has been developed. The new approach consists of four procedures: (I) Clustering by using the k-means clustering approach; (II) Employing the Apriori algorithm to discover the association rules; (III) Forecasting the wind speed according to the chaotic time series forecasting model; and (IV) Correcting the forecasted wind speed data using the associated rules discovered previously. This procedure has been verified by 31-day-ahead daily average wind speed forecasting case studies, which employed the wind speed and other meteorological data collected from four meteorological stations located in the Hexi Corridor area of China. The results of these case studies reveal that the chaotic forecasting model can efficiently improve the accuracy of the wind speed forecasting, and the Apriori algorithm can effectively discover the association rules between the wind speed and other meteorological factors. In addition, the correction results demonstrate that the association rules discovered by the Apriori algorithm have powerful capacities in handling the forecasted wind speed values correction when the forecasted values do not match the classification discovered by the association rules

Bit Loading Algorithms for Cooperative OFDM Systems

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Gui Bo

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract We investigate the resource allocation problem for an OFDM cooperative network with a single source-destination pair and multiple relays. Assuming knowledge of the instantaneous channel gains for all links in the entire network, we propose several bit and power allocation schemes aiming at minimizing the total transmission power under a target rate constraint. First, an optimal and efficient bit loading algorithm is proposed when the relay node uses the same subchannel to relay the information transmitted by the source node. To further improve the performance gain, subchannel permutation, in which the subchannels are reallocated at relay nodes, is considered. An optimal subchannel permutation algorithm is first proposed and then an efficient suboptimal algorithm is considered to achieve a better complexity-performance tradeoff. A distributed bit loading algorithm is also proposed for ad hoc networks. Simulation results show that significant performance gains can be achieved by the proposed bit loading algorithms, especially when subchannel permutation is employed.

Bit Loading Algorithms for Cooperative OFDM Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Gui

2007-12-01

Full Text Available We investigate the resource allocation problem for an OFDM cooperative network with a single source-destination pair and multiple relays. Assuming knowledge of the instantaneous channel gains for all links in the entire network, we propose several bit and power allocation schemes aiming at minimizing the total transmission power under a target rate constraint. First, an optimal and efficient bit loading algorithm is proposed when the relay node uses the same subchannel to relay the information transmitted by the source node. To further improve the performance gain, subchannel permutation, in which the subchannels are reallocated at relay nodes, is considered. An optimal subchannel permutation algorithm is first proposed and then an efficient suboptimal algorithm is considered to achieve a better complexity-performance tradeoff. A distributed bit loading algorithm is also proposed for ad hoc networks. Simulation results show that significant performance gains can be achieved by the proposed bit loading algorithms, especially when subchannel permutation is employed.

Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

Hourly cooling load forecasting using time-indexed ARX models with two-stage weighted least squares regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Yin; Nazarian, Ehsan; Ko, Jeonghan; Rajurkar, Kamlakar

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Developed hourly-indexed ARX models for robust cooling-load forecasting. • Proposed a two-stage weighted least-squares regression approach. • Considered the effect of outliers as well as trend of cooling load and weather patterns. • Included higher order terms and day type patterns in the forecasting models. • Demonstrated better accuracy compared with some ARX and ANN models. - Abstract: This paper presents a robust hourly cooling-load forecasting method based on time-indexed autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) models, in which the coefficients are estimated through a two-stage weighted least squares regression. The prediction method includes a combination of two separate time-indexed ARX models to improve prediction accuracy of the cooling load over different forecasting periods. The two-stage weighted least-squares regression approach in this study is robust to outliers and suitable for fast and adaptive coefficient estimation. The proposed method is tested on a large-scale central cooling system in an academic institution. The numerical case studies show the proposed prediction method performs better than some ANN and ARX forecasting models for the given test data set

Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

2014-02-01

Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

On practical challenges of decomposition-based hybrid forecasting algorithms for wind speed and solar irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yamin; Wu, Lei

2016-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis on practical challenges of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based algorithms on wind speed and solar irradiation forecasts that have been largely neglected in literature, and proposes an alternative approach to mitigate such challenges. Specifically, the challenges are: (1) Decomposed sub-series are very sensitive to the original time series data. That is, sub-series of the new time series, consisting of the original one plus a limit number of new data samples, may significantly differ from those used in training forecasting models. In turn, forecasting models established by original sub-series may not be suitable for newly decomposed sub-series and have to be trained more frequently; and (2) Key environmental factors usually play a critical role in non-decomposition based methods for forecasting wind speed and solar irradiation. However, it is difficult to incorporate such critical environmental factors into forecasting models of individual decomposed sub-series, because the correlation between the original data and environmental factors is lost after decomposition. Numerical case studies on wind speed and solar irradiation forecasting show that the performance of existing EMD-based forecasting methods could be worse than the non-decomposition based forecasting model, and are not effective in practical cases. Finally, the approximated forecasting model based on EMD is proposed to mitigate the challenges and achieve better forecasting results than existing EMD-based forecasting algorithms and the non-decomposition based forecasting models on practical wind speed and solar irradiation forecasting cases. - Highlights: • Two challenges of existing EMD-based forecasting methods are discussed. • Significant changes of sub-series in each step of the rolling forecast procedure. • Difficulties in incorporating environmental factors into sub-series forecasting models. • The approximated forecasting method is proposed to

Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting Using a TSK-Based Extreme Learning Machine with Knowledge Representation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chan-Uk Yeom

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses short-term electricity-load forecasting using an extreme learning machine (ELM with automatic knowledge representation from a given input-output data set. For this purpose, we use a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK-based ELM to develop a systematic approach to generating if-then rules, while the conventional ELM operates without knowledge information. The TSK-ELM design includes a two-phase development. First, we generate an initial random-partition matrix and estimate cluster centers for random clustering. The obtained cluster centers are used to determine the premise parameters of fuzzy if-then rules. Next, the linear weights of the TSK fuzzy type are estimated using the least squares estimate (LSE method. These linear weights are used as the consequent parameters in the TSK-ELM design. The experiments were performed on short-term electricity-load data for forecasting. The electricity-load data were used to forecast hourly day-ahead loads given temperature forecasts; holiday information; and historical loads from the New England ISO. In order to quantify the performance of the forecaster, we use metrics and statistical characteristics such as root mean squared error (RMSE as well as mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, and R-squared, respectively. The experimental results revealed that the proposed method showed good performance when compared with a conventional ELM with four activation functions such sigmoid, sine, radial basis function, and rectified linear unit (ReLU. It possessed superior prediction performance and knowledge information and a small number of rules.

Two-Stage Electricity Demand Modeling Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krzysztof Gajowniczek

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the most important areas of research in the electric power industry, as it is a critical component of cost-efficient power system management and planning. In this context, accurate and robust load forecasting is supposed to play a key role in reducing generation costs, and deals with the reliability of the power system. However, due to demand peaks in the power system, forecasts are inaccurate and prone to high numbers of errors. In this paper, our contributions comprise a proposed data-mining scheme for demand modeling through peak detection, as well as the use of this information to feed the forecasting system. For this purpose, we have taken a different approach from that of time series forecasting, representing it as a two-stage pattern recognition problem. We have developed a peak classification model followed by a forecasting model to estimate an aggregated demand volume. We have utilized a set of machine learning algorithms to benefit from both accurate detection of the peaks and precise forecasts, as applied to the Polish power system. The key finding is that the algorithms can detect 96.3% of electricity peaks (load value equal to or above the 99th percentile of the load distribution and deliver accurate forecasts, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 3.10% and resistant mean absolute percentage error (r-MAPE of 2.70% for the 24 h forecasting horizon.

Malicious Botnet Survivability Mechanism Evolution Forecasting by Means of a Genetic Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolaj Goranin

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Botnets are considered to be among the most dangerous modern malware types and the biggest current threats to global IT infrastructure. Botnets are rapidly evolving, and therefore forecasting their survivability strategies is important for the development of countermeasure techniques. The article propose the botnet-oriented genetic algorithm based model framework, which aimed at forecasting botnet survivability mechanisms. The model may be used as a framework for forecasting the evolution of other characteristics. The efficiency of different survivability mechanisms is evaluated by applying the proposed fitness function. The model application area also covers scientific botnet research and modelling tasks.

Forecasting nonlinear chaotic time series with function expression method based on an improved genetic-simulated annealing algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun; Zhou, Bi-hua; Zhou, Shu-dao; Sheng, Zheng

2015-01-01

The paper proposes a novel function expression method to forecast chaotic time series, using an improved genetic-simulated annealing (IGSA) algorithm to establish the optimum function expression that describes the behavior of time series. In order to deal with the weakness associated with the genetic algorithm, the proposed algorithm incorporates the simulated annealing operation which has the strong local search ability into the genetic algorithm to enhance the performance of optimization; besides, the fitness function and genetic operators are also improved. Finally, the method is applied to the chaotic time series of Quadratic and Rossler maps for validation. The effect of noise in the chaotic time series is also studied numerically. The numerical results verify that the method can forecast chaotic time series with high precision and effectiveness, and the forecasting precision with certain noise is also satisfactory. It can be concluded that the IGSA algorithm is energy-efficient and superior.

Multiobjective Optimal Algorithm for Automatic Calibration of Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Single-objection function cannot describe the characteristics of the complicated hydrologic system. Consequently, it stands to reason that multiobjective functions are needed for calibration of hydrologic model. The multiobjective algorithms based on the theory of nondominate are employed to solve this multiobjective optimal problem. In this paper, a novel multiobjective optimization method based on differential evolution with adaptive Cauchy mutation and Chaos searching (MODE-CMCS is proposed to optimize the daily streamflow forecasting model. Besides, to enhance the diversity performance of Pareto solutions, a more precise crowd distance assigner is presented in this paper. Furthermore, the traditional generalized spread metric (SP is sensitive with the size of Pareto set. A novel diversity performance metric, which is independent of Pareto set size, is put forward in this research. The efficacy of the new algorithm MODE-CMCS is compared with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II on a daily streamflow forecasting model based on support vector machine (SVM. The results verify that the performance of MODE-CMCS is superior to the NSGA-II for automatic calibration of hydrologic model.

Designing the input vector to ANN-based models for short-term load forecast in electricity distribution systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, P.J.; Martins, A.G.; Pires, A.J.

2007-01-01

The present trend to electricity market restructuring increases the need for reliable short-term load forecast (STLF) algorithms, in order to assist electric utilities in activities such as planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems. Methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in the next hour load forecast horizon with satisfactory results. However, this type of approach has had some shortcomings. Usually, the input vector (IV) is defined in a arbitrary way, mainly based on experience, on engineering judgment criteria and on concern about the ANN dimension, always taking into consideration the apparent correlations within the available endogenous and exogenous data. In this paper, a proposal is made of an approach to define the IV composition, with the main focus on reducing the influence of trial-and-error and common sense judgments, which usually are not based on sufficient evidence of comparative advantages over previous alternatives. The proposal includes the assessment of the strictly necessary instances of the endogenous variable, both from the point of view of the contiguous values prior to the forecast to be made, and of the past values representing the trend of consumption at homologous time intervals of the past. It also assesses the influence of exogenous variables, again limiting their presence at the IV to the indispensable minimum. A comparison is made with two alternative IV structures previously proposed in the literature, also applied to the distribution sector. The paper is supported by a real case study at the distribution sector. (author)

Implementing peak load reduction algorithms for household electrical appliances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dlamini, Ndumiso G.; Cromieres, Fabien

2012-01-01

Considering household appliance automation for reduction of household peak power demand, this study explored aspects of the interaction between household automation technology and human behaviour. Given a programmable household appliance switching system, and user-reported appliance use times, we simulated the load reduction effectiveness of three types of algorithms, which were applied at both the single household level and across all 30 households. All three algorithms effected significant load reductions, while the least-to-highest potential user inconvenience ranking was: coordinating the timing of frequent intermittent loads (algorithm 2); moving period-of-day time-flexible loads to off-peak times (algorithm 1); and applying short-term time delays to avoid high peaks (algorithm 3) (least accommodating). Peak reduction was facilitated by load interruptibility, time of use flexibility and the willingness of users to forgo impulsive appliance use. We conclude that a general factor determining the ability to shift the load due to a particular appliance is the time-buffering between the service delivered and the power demand of an appliance. Time-buffering can be ‘technologically inherent’, due to human habits, or realised by managing user expectations. There are implications for the design of appliances and home automation systems. - Highlights: ► We explored the interaction between appliance automation and human behaviour. ► There is potential for considerable load shifting of household appliances. ► Load shifting for load reduction is eased with increased time buffering. ► Design, human habits and user expectations all influence time buffering. ► Certain automation and appliance design features can facilitate load shifting.

An Improved Artificial Colony Algorithm Model for Forecasting Chinese Electricity Consumption and Analyzing Effect Mechanism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingmin Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Electricity consumption forecast is perceived to be a growing hot topic in such a situation that China’s economy has entered a period of new normal and the demand of electric power has slowed down. Therefore, exploring Chinese electricity consumption influence mechanism and forecasting electricity consumption are crucial to formulate electrical energy plan scientifically and guarantee the sustainable economic and social development. Research has identified medium and long term electricity consumption forecast as a difficult study influenced by various factors. This paper proposed an improved Artificial Bee Colony (ABC algorithm which combined with multivariate linear regression (MLR for exploring the influencing mechanism of various factors on Chinese electricity consumption and forecasting electricity consumption in the future. The results indicated that the improved ABC algorithm in view of the various factors is superior to traditional models just considering unilateralism in accuracy and persuasion. The overall findings cast light on this model which provides a new scientific and effective way to forecast the medium and long term electricity consumption.

Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Suryanarayana, Gowri; Lago Garcia, J.; Geysen, Davy; Aleksiejuk, Piotr; Johansson, Christian

2018-01-01

Recent research has seen several forecasting methods being applied for heat load forecasting of district heating networks. This paper presents two methods that gain significant improvements compared to the previous works. First, an automated way of handling non-linear dependencies in linear

Application of SVM methods for mid-term load forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Božić Miloš

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an approach for the medium-term load forecasting using Support Vector Machines (SVMs. The proposed SVM model was employed to predict the maximum daily load demand for the period of a month. Analyses of available data were performed and the most important features for the construction of SVM model are selected. It was shown that the size and the structure of the training set may significantly affect the accuracy of predictions. The presented model was tested by applying it on real-life load data obtained from distribution company 'ED Jugoistok' for the territory of city Niš and its surroundings. Experimental results show that the proposed approach gives acceptable results for the entire period of prediction, which are in range with other solutions in this area.

A combined model based on CEEMDAN and modified flower pollination algorithm for wind speed forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Wenyu; Qu, Zongxi; Zhang, Kequan; Mao, Wenqian; Ma, Yining; Fan, Xu

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A CEEMDAN-CLSFPA combined model is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. • The CEEMDAN technique is used to decompose the original wind speed series. • A modified optimization algorithm-CLSFPA is proposed to optimize the weights of the combined model. • The no negative constraint theory is applied to the combined model. • Robustness of the proposed model is validated by data sampled from four different wind farms. - Abstract: Wind energy, which is stochastic and intermittent by nature, has a significant influence on power system operation, power grid security and market economics. Precise and reliable wind speed prediction is vital for wind farm planning and operational planning for power grids. To improve wind speed forecasting accuracy, a large number of forecasting approaches have been proposed; however, these models typically do not account for the importance of data preprocessing and are limited by the use of individual models. In this paper, a novel combined model – combining complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), flower pollination algorithm with chaotic local search (CLSFPA), five neural networks and no negative constraint theory (NNCT) – is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. First, a recent CEEMDAN is employed to divide the original wind speed data into a finite set of IMF components, and then a combined model, based on NNCT, is proposed for forecasting each decomposition signal. To improve the forecasting capacity of the combined model, a modified flower pollination algorithm (FPA) with chaotic local search (CLS) is proposed and employed to determine the optimal weight coefficients of the combined model, and the final prediction values were obtained by reconstructing the refined series. To evaluate the forecasting ability of the proposed combined model, 15-min wind speed data from four wind farms in the eastern coastal areas of China are used. The experimental results of

Forecasting Hoabinh Reservoir’s Incoming Flow: An Application of Neural Networks with the Cuckoo Search Algorithm

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Jeng-Fung Chen

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The accuracy of reservoir flow forecasting has the most significant influence on the assurance of stability and annual operations of hydro-constructions. For instance, accurate forecasting on the ebb and flow of Vietnam’s Hoabinh Reservoir can aid in the preparation and prevention of lowland flooding and drought, as well as regulating electric energy. This raises the need to propose a model that accurately forecasts the incoming flow of the Hoabinh Reservoir. In this study, a solution to this problem based on neural network with the Cuckoo Search (CS algorithm is presented. In particular, we used hydrographic data and predicted total incoming flows of the Hoabinh Reservoir over a period of 10 days. The Cuckoo Search algorithm was utilized to train the feedforward neural network (FNN for prediction. The algorithm optimized the weights between layers and biases of the neuron network. Different forecasting models for the three scenarios were developed. The constructed models have shown high forecasting performance based on the performance indices calculated. These results were also compared with those obtained from the neural networks trained by the particle swarm optimization (PSO and back-propagation (BP, indicating that the proposed approach performed more effectively. Based on the experimental results, the scenario using the rainfall and the flow as input yielded the highest forecasting accuracy when compared with other scenarios. The performance criteria RMSE, MAPE, and R obtained by the CS-FNN in this scenario were calculated as 48.7161, 0.067268 and 0.8965, respectively. These results were highly correlated to actual values. It is expected that this work may be useful for hydrographic forecasting.

Algorithm aversion: people erroneously avoid algorithms after seeing them err.

Science.gov (United States)

Dietvorst, Berkeley J; Simmons, Joseph P; Massey, Cade

2015-02-01

Research shows that evidence-based algorithms more accurately predict the future than do human forecasters. Yet when forecasters are deciding whether to use a human forecaster or a statistical algorithm, they often choose the human forecaster. This phenomenon, which we call algorithm aversion, is costly, and it is important to understand its causes. We show that people are especially averse to algorithmic forecasters after seeing them perform, even when they see them outperform a human forecaster. This is because people more quickly lose confidence in algorithmic than human forecasters after seeing them make the same mistake. In 5 studies, participants either saw an algorithm make forecasts, a human make forecasts, both, or neither. They then decided whether to tie their incentives to the future predictions of the algorithm or the human. Participants who saw the algorithm perform were less confident in it, and less likely to choose it over an inferior human forecaster. This was true even among those who saw the algorithm outperform the human.

An Innovative Hybrid Model Based on Data Pre-Processing and Modified Optimization Algorithm and Its Application in Wind Speed Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Jiang

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Wind speed forecasting has an unsuperseded function in the high-efficiency operation of wind farms, and is significant in wind-related engineering studies. Back-propagation (BP algorithms have been comprehensively employed to forecast time series that are nonlinear, irregular, and unstable. However, the single model usually overlooks the importance of data pre-processing and parameter optimization of the model, which results in weak forecasting performance. In this paper, a more precise and robust model that combines data pre-processing, BP neural network, and a modified artificial intelligence optimization algorithm was proposed, which succeeded in avoiding the limitations of the individual algorithm. The novel model not only improves the forecasting accuracy but also retains the advantages of the firefly algorithm (FA and overcomes the disadvantage of the FA while optimizing in the later stage. To verify the forecasting performance of the presented hybrid model, 10-min wind speed data from Penglai city, Shandong province, China, were analyzed in this study. The simulations revealed that the proposed hybrid model significantly outperforms other single metaheuristics.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Quantum Elman Neural Networks

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Zhisheng Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks was constructed in this paper. The quantum computation and Elman feedback mechanism were integrated into quantum Elman neural networks. Quantum computation can effectively improve the approximation capability and the information processing ability of the neural networks. Quantum Elman neural networks have not only the feedforward connection but also the feedback connection. The feedback connection between the hidden nodes and the context nodes belongs to the state feedback in the internal system, which has formed specific dynamic memory performance. Phase space reconstruction theory is the theoretical basis of constructing the forecasting model. The training samples are formed by means of K-nearest neighbor approach. Through the example simulation, the testing results show that the model based on quantum Elman neural networks is better than the model based on the quantum feedforward neural network, the model based on the conventional Elman neural network, and the model based on the conventional feedforward neural network. So the proposed model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The research in the paper makes a theoretical foundation for the practical engineering application of the short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks.

Long-term forecasting of hourly electricity load: Identification of consumption profiles and segmentation of customers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

2013-01-01

, to model and forecast long-term changes in the aggregated electricity load profile, we identify profiles for different categories of customers and link these to projections of the aggregated annual consumption by categories of customers. Long-term projection of the aggregated load is important for future......Data for aggregated hourly electricity demand shows systematic variations over the day, week, and seasons, and forecasting of aggregated hourly electricity load has been the subject of many studies. With hourly metering of individual customers, data for individual consumption profiles is available....... Using this data and analysing the case of Denmark, we show that consumption profiles for categories of customers are equally systematic but very different for distinct categories, that is, distinct categories of customers contribute differently to the aggregated electricity load profile. Therefore...

Recurrent Neural Network For Forecasting Time Series With Long Memory Pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Walid; Alamsyah

2017-04-01

Recurrent Neural Network as one of the hybrid models are often used to predict and estimate the issues related to electricity, can be used to describe the cause of the swelling of electrical load which experienced by PLN. In this research will be developed RNN forecasting procedures at the time series with long memory patterns. Considering the application is the national electrical load which of course has a different trend with the condition of the electrical load in any country. This research produces the algorithm of time series forecasting which has long memory pattern using E-RNN after this referred to the algorithm of integrated fractional recurrent neural networks (FIRNN).The prediction results of long memory time series using models Fractional Integrated Recurrent Neural Network (FIRNN) showed that the model with the selection of data difference in the range of [-1,1] and the model of Fractional Integrated Recurrent Neural Network (FIRNN) (24,6,1) provides the smallest MSE value, which is 0.00149684.

A comparison of regression algorithms for wind speed forecasting at Alexander Bay

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Botha, Nicolene

2016-12-01

Full Text Available to forecast 1 to 24 hours ahead, in hourly intervals. Predictions are performed on a wind speed time series with three machine learning regression algorithms, namely support vector regression, ordinary least squares and Bayesian ridge regression. The resulting...

A simulated-based neural network algorithm for forecasting electrical energy consumption in Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Ghaderi, S.F.; Sohrabkhani, S.

2008-01-01

This study presents an integrated algorithm for forecasting monthly electrical energy consumption based on artificial neural network (ANN), computer simulation and design of experiments using stochastic procedures. First, an ANN approach is illustrated based on supervised multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network for the electrical consumption forecasting. The chosen model, therefore, can be compared to that of estimated by time series model. Computer simulation is developed to generate random variables for monthly electricity consumption. This is achieved to foresee the effects of probabilistic distribution on monthly electricity consumption. The simulated-based ANN model is then developed. Therefore, there are four treatments to be considered in analysis of variance (ANOVA), which are actual data, time series, ANN and simulated-based ANN. Furthermore, ANOVA is used to test the null hypothesis of the above four alternatives being statistically equal. If the null hypothesis is accepted, then the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value is used to select the best model, otherwise the Duncan method (DMRT) of paired comparison is used to select the optimum model which could be time series, ANN or simulated-based ANN. In case of ties the lowest MAPE value is considered as the benchmark. The integrated algorithm has several unique features. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and MAPE, whereas previous studies consider the best fitted ANN model based on MAPE or relative error results. Second, the proposed algorithm may identify conventional time series as the best model for future electricity consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that ANN always provide the best solutions and estimation. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed algorithm, the monthly electricity consumption in Iran from March 1994 to February 2005 (131 months) is used and applied to

Loading pattern optimization using ant colony algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoareau, Fabrice

2008-01-01

Electricite de France (EDF) operates 58 nuclear power plants (NPP), of the Pressurized Water Reactor type. The loading pattern optimization of these NPP is currently done by EDF expert engineers. Within this framework, EDF R and D has developed automatic optimization tools that assist the experts. LOOP is an industrial tool, developed by EDF R and D and based on a simulated annealing algorithm. In order to improve the results of such automatic tools, new optimization methods have to be tested. Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithms are recent methods that have given very good results on combinatorial optimization problems. In order to evaluate the performance of such methods on loading pattern optimization, direct comparisons between LOOP and a mock-up based on the Max-Min Ant System algorithm (a particular variant of ACO algorithms) were made on realistic test-cases. It is shown that the results obtained by the ACO mock-up are very similar to those of LOOP. Future research will consist in improving these encouraging results by using parallelization and by hybridizing the ACO algorithm with local search procedures. (author)

Day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a new feature selection algorithm and cascaded neural network technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

2009-01-01

With the introduction of restructuring into the electric power industry, the price of electricity has become the focus of all activities in the power market. Electricity price forecast is key information for electricity market managers and participants. However, electricity price is a complex signal due to its non-linear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior. In spite of performed research in this area, more accurate and robust price forecast methods are still required. In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets. Our forecast strategy is composed of a new two stage feature selection technique and cascaded neural networks. The proposed feature selection technique comprises modified Relief algorithm for the first stage and correlation analysis for the second stage. The modified Relief algorithm selects candidate inputs with maximum relevancy with the target variable. Then among the selected candidates, the correlation analysis eliminates redundant inputs. Selected features by the two stage feature selection technique are used for the forecast engine, which is composed of 24 consecutive forecasters. Each of these 24 forecasters is a neural network allocated to predict the price of 1 h of the next day. The whole proposed forecast strategy is examined on the Spanish and Australia's National Electricity Markets Management Company (NEMMCO) and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods.

Short-term forecasts of district heating load and outdoor temperature by use of on-line connected computers; Korttidsprognoser foer fjaerrvaermelast och utetemperatur med on-linekopplade datorer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Malmstroem, B; Ernfors, P; Nilsson, Daniel; Vallgren, H [Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Goeteborg (Sweden). Institutionen foer Energiteknik

1996-10-01

In this report the available methods for forecasting weather and district heating load have been studied. A forecast method based on neural networks has been tested against the more common statistical methods. The accuracy of the weather forecasts from the SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) has been estimated. In connection with these tests, the possibilities of improving the forecasts by using on-line connected computers has been analysed. The most important results from the study are: Energy company staff generally look upon the forecasting of district heating load as a problem of such a magnitude that computer support is needed. At the companies where computer calculated forecasts are in use, their accuracy is regarded as quite satisfactory; The interest in computer produced load forecasts among energy company staff is increasing; At present, a sufficient number of commercial suppliers of weather forecasts as well as load forecasts is available to fulfill the needs of energy companies; Forecasts based on neural networks did not attain any precision improvement in comparison to more traditional statistical methods. There may though be other types of neural networks, not tested in this study, that are possibly capable of improving the forecast precision; Forecasts of outdoor temperature and district heating load can be significantly improved through the use of on-line-connected computers supplied with instantaneous measurements of temperature and load. This study shows that a general reduction of the load prediction errors by approximately 15% is attainable. For short time horizons (less than 5 hours), more extensive load prediction error reductions can be reached. For the 1-hour time horizon, the possible reduction amounts to up to 50%. 21 refs, 4 figs, 7 appendices

Time series modeling and forecasting using memetic algorithms for regime-switching models.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergmeir, Christoph; Triguero, Isaac; Molina, Daniel; Aznarte, José Luis; Benitez, José Manuel

2012-11-01

In this brief, we present a novel model fitting procedure for the neuro-coefficient smooth transition autoregressive model (NCSTAR), as presented by Medeiros and Veiga. The model is endowed with a statistically founded iterative building procedure and can be interpreted in terms of fuzzy rule-based systems. The interpretability of the generated models and a mathematically sound building procedure are two very important properties of forecasting models. The model fitting procedure employed by the original NCSTAR is a combination of initial parameter estimation by a grid search procedure with a traditional local search algorithm. We propose a different fitting procedure, using a memetic algorithm, in order to obtain more accurate models. An empirical evaluation of the method is performed, applying it to various real-world time series originating from three forecasting competitions. The results indicate that we can significantly enhance the accuracy of the models, making them competitive to models commonly used in the field.

Forecasting with Universal Approximators and a Learning Algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Anders Bredahl

2011-01-01

to the performance of the best single model in the set of models combined from. The use of universal approximators along with a combination scheme for which explicit loss bounds exist should give a solid theoretical foundation to the way the forecasts are performed. The practical performance will be investigated...... combination has a long history in econometrics focus has not been on proving loss bounds for the combination rules applied. We apply the Weighted Average Algorithm (WAA) of Kivinen & Warmuth (1999) for which such loss bounds exist. Specifically, one can bound the worst case performance of the WAA compared...

Forecasting with Universal Approximators and a Learning Algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Anders Bredahl

bounds for the combination rules applied. We apply the Weighted Average Algorithm (WAA) of Kivinen and Warmuth (1999) for which such loss bounds exist. Specifically, one can bound the worst case performance of the WAA compared to the performance of the best single model in the set of models combined from....... The use of universal approximators along with a combination scheme for which explicit loss bounds exist should give a solid theoretical foundation to the way the forecasts are performed. The practical performance will be investigated by considering various monthly postwar macroeconomic data sets for the G...

Short-Term Wind Electric Power Forecasting Using a Novel Multi-Stage Intelligent Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haoran Zhao

2018-03-01

Full Text Available As the most efficient renewable energy source for generating electricity in a modern electricity network, wind power has the potential to realize sustainable energy supply. However, owing to its random and intermittent instincts, a high permeability of wind power into a power network demands accurate and effective wind energy prediction models. This study proposes a multi-stage intelligent algorithm for wind electric power prediction, which combines the Beveridge–Nelson (B-N decomposition approach, the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM, and a newly proposed intelligent optimization approach called the Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA. For data preprocessing, the B-N decomposition approach was employed to disintegrate the hourly wind electric power data into a deterministic trend, a cyclic term, and a random component. Then, the LSSVM optimized by the GOA (denoted GOA-LSSVM was applied to forecast the future 168 h of the deterministic trend, the cyclic term, and the stochastic component, respectively. Finally, the future hourly wind electric power values can be obtained by multiplying the forecasted values of these three trends. Through comparing the forecasting performance of this proposed method with the LSSVM, the LSSVM optimized by the Fruit-fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA-LSSVM, and the LSSVM optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-LSSVM, it is verified that the established multi-stage approach is superior to other models and can increase the precision of wind electric power prediction effectively.

Characteristic statistic algorithm (CSA) for in-core loading pattern optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Zhihong; Hu Yongming; Shi Gong

2007-01-01

To solve the problem of PWR in-core loading pattern optimization, a more suitable global optimization algorithm, i.e., Characteristic statistic algorithm (CSA), is used. The searching process of this algorithm and how to apply it to this problem are presented. Loading pattern optimization code SCYCLE is developed. Two different problems on real PWR models are calculated and the results are compared with other algorithms. It is shown that SCYCLE has high efficiency and good global performance on this problem. (authors)

Daily Peak Load Forecasting of Next Day using Weather Distribution and Comparison Value of Each Nearby Date Data

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Shigenobu; Yukita, Kazuto; Goto, Yasuyuki; Ichiyanagi, Katsuhiro; Nakano, Hiroyuki

By the development of industry, in recent years; dependence to electric energy is growing year by year. Therefore, reliable electric power supply is in need. However, to stock a huge amount of electric energy is very difficult. Also, there is a necessity to keep balance between the demand and supply, which changes hour after hour. Consequently, to supply the high quality and highly dependable electric power supply, economically, and with high efficiency, there is a need to forecast the movement of the electric power demand carefully in advance. And using that forecast as the source, supply and demand management plan should be made. Thus load forecasting is said to be an important job among demand investment of electric power companies. So far, forecasting method using Fuzzy logic, Neural Net Work, Regression model has been suggested for the development of forecasting accuracy. Those forecasting accuracy is in a high level. But to invest electric power in higher accuracy more economically, a new forecasting method with higher accuracy is needed. In this paper, to develop the forecasting accuracy of the former methods, the daily peak load forecasting method using the weather distribution of highest and lowest temperatures, and comparison value of each nearby date data is suggested.

Spatial load forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

1995-04-01

The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

Degradation forecast for PEMFC cathode-catalysts under cyclic loads

Science.gov (United States)

Moein-Jahromi, M.; Kermani, M. J.; Movahed, S.

2017-08-01

Degradation of Fuel Cell (FC) components under cyclic loads is one of the biggest bottlenecks in FC commercialization. In this paper, a novel experimental based algorithm is presented to predict the Catalyst Layer (CL) performance loss during cyclic load. The algorithm consists of two models namely Models 1 and 2. The Model 1 calculates the Electro-Chemical Surface Area (ECSA) and agglomerate size (e.g. agglomerate radius, rt,agg) for the catalyst layer under cyclic load. The Model 2 is the already-existing model from our earlier studies that computes catalyst performance with fixed structural parameters. Combinations of these two Models predict the CL performance under an arbitrary cyclic load. A set of parametric/sensitivity studies is performed to investigate the effects of operating parameters on the percentage of Voltage Degradation Rate (VDR%) with rank 1 for the most influential one. Amongst the considered parameters (such as: temperature, relative humidity, pressure, minimum and maximum voltage of the cyclic load), the results show that temperature and pressure have the most and the least influences on the VDR%, respectively. So that, increase of temperature from 60 °C to 80 °C leads to over 20% VDR intensification, the VDR will also reduce 1.41% by increasing pressure from 2 atm to 4 atm.

Day-ahead price forecasting in restructured power systems using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vahidinasab, V.; Jadid, S.; Kazemi, A.

2008-01-01

Over the past 15 years most electricity supply companies around the world have been restructured from monopoly utilities to deregulated competitive electricity markets. Market participants in the restructured electricity markets find short-term electricity price forecasting (STPF) crucial in formulating their risk management strategies. They need to know future electricity prices as their profitability depends on them. This research project classifies and compares different techniques of electricity price forecasting in the literature and selects artificial neural networks (ANN) as a suitable method for price forecasting. To perform this task, market knowledge should be used to optimize the selection of input data for an electricity price forecasting tool. Then sensitivity analysis is used in this research to aid in the selection of the optimum inputs of the ANN and fuzzy c-mean (FCM) algorithm is used for daily load pattern clustering. Finally, ANN with a modified Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm are implemented for forecasting prices in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market. The forecasting results were compared with the previous works and showed that the results are reasonable and accurate. (author)

Genetic algorithms in loading pattern optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yilmazbayhan, A.; Tombakoglu, M.; Bekar, K. B.; Erdemli, A. Oe

2001-01-01

Genetic Algorithm (GA) based systems are used for the loading pattern optimization. The use of Genetic Algorithm operators such as regional crossover, crossover and mutation, and selection of initial population size for PWRs are discussed. Antithetic variates are used to generate the initial population. The performance of GA with antithetic variates is compared to traditional GA. The results of multi-cycle optimization are discussed for objective function taking into account cycle burn-up and discharge burn-up

Application of Classification Methods for Forecasting Mid-Term Power Load Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Piao, Minghao; Lee, Heon Gyu; Park, Jin Hyoung; Ryu, Keun Ho

Currently an automated methodology based on data mining techniques is presented for the prediction of customer load patterns in long duration load profiles. The proposed approach in this paper consists of three stages: (i) data preprocessing: noise or outlier is removed and the continuous attribute-valued features are transformed to discrete values, (ii) cluster analysis: k-means clustering is used to create load pattern classes and the representative load profiles for each class and (iii) classification: we evaluated several supervised learning methods in order to select a suitable prediction method. According to the proposed methodology, power load measured from AMR (automatic meter reading) system, as well as customer indexes, were used as inputs for clustering. The output of clustering was the classification of representative load profiles (or classes). In order to evaluate the result of forecasting load patterns, the several classification methods were applied on a set of high voltage customers of the Korea power system and derived class labels from clustering and other features are used as input to produce classifiers. Lastly, the result of our experiments was presented.

Online Learning Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Suitable for Low Cost Wireless Sensor Networks Nodes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Pardo

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Time series forecasting is an important predictive methodology which can be applied to a wide range of problems. Particularly, forecasting the indoor temperature permits an improved utilization of the HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning systems in a home and thus a better energy efficiency. With such purpose the paper describes how to implement an Artificial Neural Network (ANN algorithm in a low cost system-on-chip to develop an autonomous intelligent wireless sensor network. The present paper uses a Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN to monitor and forecast the indoor temperature in a smart home, based on low resources and cost microcontroller technology as the 8051MCU. An on-line learning approach, based on Back-Propagation (BP algorithm for ANNs, has been developed for real-time time series learning. It performs the model training with every new data that arrive to the system, without saving enormous quantities of data to create a historical database as usual, i.e., without previous knowledge. Consequently to validate the approach a simulation study through a Bayesian baseline model have been tested in order to compare with a database of a real application aiming to see the performance and accuracy. The core of the paper is a new algorithm, based on the BP one, which has been described in detail, and the challenge was how to implement a computational demanding algorithm in a simple architecture with very few hardware resources.

Online Learning Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Suitable for Low Cost Wireless Sensor Networks Nodes

Science.gov (United States)

Pardo, Juan; Zamora-Martínez, Francisco; Botella-Rocamora, Paloma

2015-01-01

Time series forecasting is an important predictive methodology which can be applied to a wide range of problems. Particularly, forecasting the indoor temperature permits an improved utilization of the HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems in a home and thus a better energy efficiency. With such purpose the paper describes how to implement an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm in a low cost system-on-chip to develop an autonomous intelligent wireless sensor network. The present paper uses a Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) to monitor and forecast the indoor temperature in a smart home, based on low resources and cost microcontroller technology as the 8051MCU. An on-line learning approach, based on Back-Propagation (BP) algorithm for ANNs, has been developed for real-time time series learning. It performs the model training with every new data that arrive to the system, without saving enormous quantities of data to create a historical database as usual, i.e., without previous knowledge. Consequently to validate the approach a simulation study through a Bayesian baseline model have been tested in order to compare with a database of a real application aiming to see the performance and accuracy. The core of the paper is a new algorithm, based on the BP one, which has been described in detail, and the challenge was how to implement a computational demanding algorithm in a simple architecture with very few hardware resources. PMID:25905698

Online learning algorithm for time series forecasting suitable for low cost wireless sensor networks nodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pardo, Juan; Zamora-Martínez, Francisco; Botella-Rocamora, Paloma

2015-04-21

Time series forecasting is an important predictive methodology which can be applied to a wide range of problems. Particularly, forecasting the indoor temperature permits an improved utilization of the HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems in a home and thus a better energy efficiency. With such purpose the paper describes how to implement an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm in a low cost system-on-chip to develop an autonomous intelligent wireless sensor network. The present paper uses a Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) to monitor and forecast the indoor temperature in a smart home, based on low resources and cost microcontroller technology as the 8051MCU. An on-line learning approach, based on Back-Propagation (BP) algorithm for ANNs, has been developed for real-time time series learning. It performs the model training with every new data that arrive to the system, without saving enormous quantities of data to create a historical database as usual, i.e., without previous knowledge. Consequently to validate the approach a simulation study through a Bayesian baseline model have been tested in order to compare with a database of a real application aiming to see the performance and accuracy. The core of the paper is a new algorithm, based on the BP one, which has been described in detail, and the challenge was how to implement a computational demanding algorithm in a simple architecture with very few hardware resources.

Research on electricity consumption forecast based on mutual information and random forests algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Jing; Shi, Yunli; Tan, Jian; Zhu, Lei; Li, Hu

2018-02-01

Traditional power forecasting models cannot efficiently take various factors into account, neither to identify the relation factors. In this paper, the mutual information in information theory and the artificial intelligence random forests algorithm are introduced into the medium and long-term electricity demand prediction. Mutual information can identify the high relation factors based on the value of average mutual information between a variety of variables and electricity demand, different industries may be highly associated with different variables. The random forests algorithm was used for building the different industries forecasting models according to the different correlation factors. The data of electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province is taken as a practical example, and the above methods are compared with the methods without regard to mutual information and the industries. The simulation results show that the above method is scientific, effective, and can provide higher prediction accuracy.

Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kornilov Vladimir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANNs FOR SEDIMENT LOAD FORECASTING OF TALKHEROOD RIVER MOUTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahid Nourani

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Without a doubt the carried sediment load by a river is the most important factor in creating and formation of the related Delta in the river mouth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the river sediment load can play a significant role for study on the river Delta. However considering the complexity and non-linearity of the phenomenon, the classic experimental or physical-based approaches usually could not handle the problem so well. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network (ANN as a non-linear black box interpolator tool is used for modeling suspended sediment load which discharges to the Talkherood river mouth, located in northern west Iran. For this purpose, observed time series of water discharge at current and previous time steps are used as the model input neurons and the model output neuron will be the forecasted sediment load at the current time step. In this way, various schemes of the ANN approach are examined in order to achieve the best network as well as the best architecture of the model. The obtained results are also compared with the results of two other classic methods (i.e., linear regression and rating curve methods in order to approve the efficiency and ability of the proposed method.

A Permutation Importance-Based Feature Selection Method for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using Random Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nantian Huang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The prediction accuracy of short-term load forecast (STLF depends on prediction model choice and feature selection result. In this paper, a novel random forest (RF-based feature selection method for STLF is proposed. First, 243 related features were extracted from historical load data and the time information of prediction points to form the original feature set. Subsequently, the original feature set was used to train an RF as the original model. After the training process, the prediction error of the original model on the test set was recorded and the permutation importance (PI value of each feature was obtained. Then, an improved sequential backward search method was used to select the optimal forecasting feature subset based on the PI value of each feature. Finally, the optimal forecasting feature subset was used to train a new RF model as the final prediction model. Experiments showed that the prediction accuracy of RF trained by the optimal forecasting feature subset was higher than that of the original model and comparative models based on support vector regression and artificial neural network.

A new spinning reserve requirement forecast method for deregulated electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

2010-01-01

Ancillary services are necessary for maintaining the security and reliability of power systems and constitute an important part of trade in competitive electricity markets. Spinning Reserve (SR) is one of the most important ancillary services for saving power system stability and integrity in response to contingencies and disturbances that continuously occur in the power systems. Hence, an accurate day-ahead forecast of SR requirement helps the Independent System Operator (ISO) to conduct a reliable and economic operation of the power system. However, SR signal has complex, non-stationary and volatile behavior along the time domain and depends greatly on system load. In this paper, a new hybrid forecast engine is proposed for SR requirement prediction. The proposed forecast engine has an iterative training mechanism composed of Levenberg-Marquadt (LM) learning algorithm and Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA), implemented on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. The proposed forecast methodology is examined by means of real data of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market and the California ISO (CAISO) controlled grid. The obtained forecast results are presented and compared with those of the other SR forecast methods. (author)

A new spinning reserve requirement forecast method for deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid [Department of Electrical Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan (Iran)

2010-06-15

Ancillary services are necessary for maintaining the security and reliability of power systems and constitute an important part of trade in competitive electricity markets. Spinning Reserve (SR) is one of the most important ancillary services for saving power system stability and integrity in response to contingencies and disturbances that continuously occur in the power systems. Hence, an accurate day-ahead forecast of SR requirement helps the Independent System Operator (ISO) to conduct a reliable and economic operation of the power system. However, SR signal has complex, non-stationary and volatile behavior along the time domain and depends greatly on system load. In this paper, a new hybrid forecast engine is proposed for SR requirement prediction. The proposed forecast engine has an iterative training mechanism composed of Levenberg-Marquadt (LM) learning algorithm and Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA), implemented on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. The proposed forecast methodology is examined by means of real data of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market and the California ISO (CAISO) controlled grid. The obtained forecast results are presented and compared with those of the other SR forecast methods. (author)

Load power device and system for real-time execution of hierarchical load identification algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yi; Madane, Mayura Arun; Zambare, Prachi Suresh

2017-11-14

A load power device includes a power input; at least one power output for at least one load; and a plurality of sensors structured to sense voltage and current at the at least one power output. A processor is structured to provide real-time execution of: (a) a plurality of load identification algorithms, and (b) event detection and operating mode detection for the at least one load.

Forecasting spot electricity prices : Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lago Garcia, J.; De Ridder, Fjo; De Schutter, B.H.K.

2018-01-01

In this paper, a novel modeling framework for forecasting electricity prices is proposed. While many predictive models have been already proposed to perform this task, the area of deep learning algorithms remains yet unexplored. To fill this scientific gap, we propose four different deep learning

A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashfaq Ahmad

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In the operation of a smart grid (SG, day-ahead load forecasting (DLF is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately predict the load of the next day with a fair enough execution time. Our proposed model consists of three modules; the data preparation module, feature selection and the forecast module. The first module makes the historical load curve compatible with the feature selection module. The second module removes redundant and irrelevant features from the input data. The third module, which consists of an artificial neural network (ANN, predicts future load on the basis of selected features. Moreover, the forecast module uses a sigmoid function for activation and a multi-variate auto-regressive model for weight updating during the training process. Simulations are conducted in MATLAB to validate the performance of our newly-proposed DLF model in terms of accuracy and execution time. Results show that our proposed modified feature selection and modified ANN (m(FS + ANN-based model for SGs is able to capture the non-linearity(ies in the history load curve with 97 . 11 % accuracy. Moreover, this accuracy is achieved at the cost of a fair enough execution time, i.e., we have decreased the average execution time of the existing FS + ANN-based model by 38 . 50 % .

Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

KAUST Repository

Hays, Spencer

2012-09-01

Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM with functional factor loading curves. This results in a model capable of forecasting functional time series. Further, in the yield curve context we show that the model retains economic interpretation. Model estimation is achieved through an expectation- maximization algorithm, where the time series parameters and factor loading curves are simultaneously estimated in a single step. Efficient computing is implemented and a data-driven smoothing parameter is nicely incorporated. We show that our model performs very well on forecasting actual yield data compared with existing approaches, especially in regard to profit-based assessment for an innovative trading exercise. We further illustrate the viability of our model to applications outside of yield forecasting.

Hybrid Bee Ant Colony Algorithm for Effective Load Balancing And ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF. OLIVER OSUAGWA

Ant Colony algorithm is used in this hybrid Bee Ant Colony algorithm to solve load balancing issues ... Genetic Algorithm (MO-GA) for dynamic job scheduling that .... Information Networking and Applications Workshops. [7]. M. Dorigo & T.

Programming Algorithms of load balancing with HA-Proxy in HTTP services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Teodoro Mejía Viteri

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The access to the public and private services through the web gains daily protagonism, and sometimes they must support amounts of requests that a team can not process, so there are solutions that use algorithms that allow to distribute the load of requests of a web application in several equipment; the objective of this work is to perform an analysis of load balancing scheduling algorithms through the HA-Proxy tool, and deliver an instrument that identifies the load distribution algorithm to be used and the technological infrastructure, to largely cover implementation. The information used for this work is based on a bibliographic analysis, eld study and implementation of the different load balancing algorithms in equipment, where the distribution and its performance will be analyzed. The incorporation of this technology to the management of services on the web, improves availability, helps business continuity and through the different forms of distribution of the requests of the algorithms that can be implemented in HA-Proxy to provide those responsible for information technology systems with a view of their advantages and disadvantages.

A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

OpenAIRE

Ahmad, Ashfaq; Javaid, Nadeem; Alrajeh, Nabil; Khan, Zahoor; Qasim, Umar; Khan, Abid

2015-01-01

In the operation of a smart grid (SG), day-ahead load forecasting (DLF) is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately ...

Methodology of demand forecast by market analysis of electric power and load curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barreiro, C.J.; Atmann, J.L.

1989-01-01

A methodology for demand forecast of consumer classes and their aggregation is presented. An analysis of the actual attended market can be done by appropriate measures and load curves studies. The suppositions for the future market behaviour by consumer classes (industrial, residential, commercial, others) are shown, and the actions for optimise this market are foreseen, obtained by load curves modulations. The process of future demand determination is obtained by the appropriate aggregation of this segmented demands. (C.G.C.)

Improved Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Two-Stage Predictions with Artificial Neural Networks in a Microgrid Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Lloret

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Short-Term Load Forecasting plays a significant role in energy generation planning, and is specially gaining momentum in the emerging Smart Grids environment, which usually presents highly disaggregated scenarios where detailed real-time information is available thanks to Communications and Information Technologies, as it happens for example in the case of microgrids. This paper presents a two stage prediction model based on an Artificial Neural Network in order to allow Short-Term Load Forecasting of the following day in microgrid environment, which first estimates peak and valley values of the demand curve of the day to be forecasted. Those, together with other variables, will make the second stage, forecast of the entire demand curve, more precise than a direct, single-stage forecast. The whole architecture of the model will be presented and the results compared with recent work on the same set of data, and on the same location, obtaining a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 1.62% against the original 2.47% of the single stage model.

Selection of Hidden Layer Neurons and Best Training Method for FFNN in Application of Long Term Load Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Navneet K.; Singh, Asheesh K.; Tripathy, Manoj

2012-05-01

For power industries electricity load forecast plays an important role for real-time control, security, optimal unit commitment, economic scheduling, maintenance, energy management, and plant structure planning etc. A new technique for long term load forecasting (LTLF) using optimized feed forward artificial neural network (FFNN) architecture is presented in this paper, which selects optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer as well as the best training method for the case study. The prediction performance of proposed technique is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of Thailand private electricity consumption and forecasted data. The results obtained are compared with the results of classical auto-regressive (AR) and moving average (MA) methods. It is, in general, observed that the proposed method is prediction wise more accurate.

Static Load Balancing Algorithms In Cloud Computing Challenges amp Solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadeem Shah

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Cloud computing provides on-demand hosted computing resources and services over the Internet on a pay-per-use basis. It is currently becoming the favored method of communication and computation over scalable networks due to numerous attractive attributes such as high availability scalability fault tolerance simplicity of management and low cost of ownership. Due to the huge demand of cloud computing efficient load balancing becomes critical to ensure that computational tasks are evenly distributed across servers to prevent bottlenecks. The aim of this review paper is to understand the current challenges in cloud computing primarily in cloud load balancing using static algorithms and finding gaps to bridge for more efficient static cloud load balancing in the future. We believe the ideas suggested as new solution will allow researchers to redesign better algorithms for better functionalities and improved user experiences in simple cloud systems. This could assist small businesses that cannot afford infrastructure that supports complex amp dynamic load balancing algorithms.

Icing Forecasting of High Voltage Transmission Line Using Weighted Least Square Support Vector Machine with Fireworks Algorithm for Feature Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiannan Ma

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Accurate forecasting of icing thickness has great significance for ensuring the security and stability of the power grid. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, this paper proposes an icing forecasting system based on the fireworks algorithm and weighted least square support vector machine (W-LSSVM. The method of the fireworks algorithm is employed to select the proper input features with the purpose of eliminating redundant influence. In addition, the aim of the W-LSSVM model is to train and test the historical data-set with the selected features. The capability of this proposed icing forecasting model and framework is tested through simulation experiments using real-world icing data from the monitoring center of the key laboratory of anti-ice disaster, Hunan, South China. The results show that the proposed W-LSSVM-FA method has a higher prediction accuracy and it may be a promising alternative for icing thickness forecasting.

Efficient Load Forecasting Optimized by Fuzzy Programming and OFDM Transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandeep Sachdeva

2011-01-01

reduce the error of load forecasting, fuzzy method has been used with Artificial Neural Network (ANN and OFDM transmission is used to get data from outer world and send outputs to outer world accurately and quickly. The error has been reduced to a considerable level in the range of 2-3%. For further reducing the error, Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM can be used with Reed-Solomon (RS encoding. Further studies are going on with Fuzzy Regression methods to reduce the error more.

Waste Load Allocation Based on Total Maximum Daily Load Approach Using the Charged System Search (CSS Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elham Faraji

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In this research, the capability of a charged system search algorithm (CSS in handling water management optimization problems is investigated. First, two complex mathematical problems are solved by CSS and the results are compared with those obtained from other metaheuristic algorithms. In the last step, the optimization model developed by the CSS algorithm is applied to the waste load allocation in rivers based on the total maximum daily load (TMDL concept. The results are presented in Tables and Figures for easy comparison. The study indicates the superiority of the CSS algorithm in terms of its speed and performance over the other metaheuristic algorithms while its precision in water management optimization problems is verified.

Implementation and testing of a simple data assimilation algorithm in the regional air pollution forecast model, DEOM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Frydendall

2009-08-01

Full Text Available A simple data assimilation algorithm based on statistical interpolation has been developed and coupled to a long-range chemistry transport model, the Danish Eulerian Operational Model (DEOM, applied for air pollution forecasting at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI, Denmark. In this paper, the algorithm and the results from experiments designed to find the optimal setup of the algorithm are described. The algorithm has been developed and optimized via eight different experiments where the results from different model setups have been tested against measurements from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme network covering a half-year period, April–September 1999. The best performing setup of the data assimilation algorithm for surface ozone concentrations has been found, including the combination of determining the covariances using the Hollingsworth method, varying the correlation length according to the number of adjacent observation stations and applying the assimilation routine at three successive hours during the morning. Improvements in the correlation coefficient in the range of 0.1 to 0.21 between the results from the reference and the optimal configuration of the data assimilation algorithm, were found. The data assimilation algorithm will in the future be used in the operational THOR integrated air pollution forecast system, which includes the DEOM.

Neural Network Algorithm for Particle Loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewandowski, J.L.V.

2003-01-01

An artificial neural network algorithm for continuous minimization is developed and applied to the case of numerical particle loading. It is shown that higher-order moments of the probability distribution function can be efficiently renormalized using this technique. A general neural network for the renormalization of an arbitrary number of moments is given

Application of BP Neural Network Algorithm in Traditional Hydrological Model for Flood Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianjin Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Flooding contributes to tremendous hazards every year; more accurate forecasting may significantly mitigate the damages and loss caused by flood disasters. Current hydrological models are either purely knowledge-based or data-driven. A combination of data-driven method (artificial neural networks in this paper and knowledge-based method (traditional hydrological model may booster simulation accuracy. In this study, we proposed a new back-propagation (BP neural network algorithm and applied it in the semi-distributed Xinanjiang (XAJ model. The improved hydrological model is capable of updating the flow forecasting error without losing the leading time. The proposed method was tested in a real case study for both single period corrections and real-time corrections. The results reveal that the proposed method could significantly increase the accuracy of flood forecasting and indicate that the global correction effect is superior to the second-order autoregressive correction method in real-time correction.

Experimental Analysis of the Input Variables’ Relevance to Forecast Next Day’s Aggregated Electric Demand Using Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo García

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Thanks to the built in intelligence (deployment of new intelligent devices and sensors in places where historically they were not present, the Smart Grid and Microgrid paradigms are able to take advantage from aggregated load forecasting, which opens the door for the implementation of new algorithms to seize this information for optimization and advanced planning. Therefore, accuracy in load forecasts will potentially have a big impact on key operation factors for the future Smart Grid/Microgrid-based energy network like user satisfaction and resource saving, and new methods to achieve an efficient prediction in future energy landscapes (very different from the centralized, big area networks studied so far. This paper proposes different improved models to forecast next day’s aggregated load using artificial neural networks, taking into account the variables that are most relevant for the aggregated. In particular, seven models based on the multilayer perceptron will be proposed, progressively adding input variables after analyzing the influence of climate factors on aggregated load. The results section presents the forecast from the proposed models, obtained from real data.

Forecasting solar radiation using an optimized hybrid model by Cuckoo Search algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Jianzhou; Jiang, He; Wu, Yujie; Dong, Yao

2015-01-01

Due to energy crisis and environmental problems, it is very urgent to find alternative energy sources nowadays. Solar energy, as one of the great potential clean energies, has widely attracted the attention of researchers. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method by CS (Cuckoo Search) on the basis of the OP-ELM (Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine), called CS-OP-ELM, is developed to forecast clear sky and real sky global horizontal radiation. First, MRSR (Multiresponse Sparse Regression) and LOO-CV (leave-one-out cross-validation) can be applied to rank neurons and prune the possibly meaningless neurons of the FFNN (Feed Forward Neural Network), respectively. Then, Direct strategy and Direct-Recursive strategy based on OP-ELM are introduced to build a hybrid model. Furthermore, CS (Cuckoo Search) optimized algorithm is employed to determine the proper weight coefficients. In order to verify the effectiveness of the developed method, hourly solar radiation data from six sites of the United States has been collected, and methods like ARMA (Autoregression moving average), BP (Back Propagation) neural network and OP-ELM can be compared with CS-OP-ELM. Experimental results show the optimized hybrid method CS-OP-ELM has the best forecasting performance. - Highlights: • An optimized hybrid method called CS-OP-ELM is proposed to forecast solar radiation. • CS-OP-ELM adopts multiple variables dataset as input variables. • Direct and Direct-Recursive strategy are introduced to build a hybrid model. • CS (Cuckoo Search) algorithm is used to determine the optimal weight coefficients. • The proposed method has the best performance compared with other methods

D6.2–Load and generation forecasting methods and prototypes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Per Printz; Dueñas, Lara Pérez; Moraga, Carlos Castaño

. Most existing suppliers use anyway some kind of statistical approach to make the energy prediction. In the market there are few but strong providers of such services, and it has been preferred to use an external provider rather than developing ENCOURAGE’s own energy production algorithm. The external...... service chosen belongs to one of the partners of the consortium (Gnarum), so tests have been carried on to adapt the forecasting methods to the distributed small-scale generation case, with satisfactory results....

Swarm Intelligence-Based Hybrid Models for Short-Term Power Load Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianzhou Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Swarm intelligence (SI is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS as well as the singular spectrum analysis (SSA, time series, and machine learning methods are proposed to conduct short-term power load prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is augmented by a rolling multistep strategy over the prediction horizon. The test results are representative of the out-performance of the SSA and CS in tuning the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and support vector regression (SVR in improving load forecasting, which indicates that both the SSA-based data denoising and SI-based intelligent optimization strategy can effectively improve the model’s predictive performance. Additionally, the proposed CS-SSA-SARIMA and CS-SSA-SVR models provide very impressive forecasting results, demonstrating their strong robustness and universal forecasting capacities in terms of short-term power load prediction 24 hours in advance.

Scheduling of radio-controlled heating load

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, B.; McCartney, A.I.; McCann, B.M.

1998-01-01

An economic loading program has been adapted to enable it to obtain an optimum heat-load profile to meet the forecast heat requirement. The heat load is represented by a 'generator' whose load is constrained to be negative. The incremental cost of this unit is a heat energy price. This is adjusted to obtain a heat profile containing the requisite energy. The profile is then used by a dynamic programming algorithm to derive a commitment pattern for each block. A case study is presented which shows that the procedure can minimise heat energy cost. It is also shown that use of the proposed method results in less generator load cycling. This reduced regulation duty should improve reliability. (author)

A New Approach to Detection of Systematic Errors in Secondary Substation Monitoring Equipment Based on Short Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Moriano

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, Secondary Substations (SSs are being provided with equipment that allows their full management. This is particularly useful not only for monitoring and planning purposes but also for detecting erroneous measurements, which could negatively affect the performance of the SS. On the other hand, load forecasting is extremely important since they help electricity companies to make crucial decisions regarding purchasing and generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. In this regard, Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF allows the electric power load to be predicted over an interval ranging from one hour to one week. However, important issues concerning error detection by employing STLF has not been specifically addressed until now. This paper proposes a novel STLF-based approach to the detection of gain and offset errors introduced by the measurement equipment. The implemented system has been tested against real power load data provided by electricity suppliers. Different gain and offset error levels are successfully detected.

Differential harmony search algorithm to optimize PWRs loading pattern

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poursalehi, N., E-mail: npsalehi@yahoo.com [Engineering Department, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C, P.O.Box: 1983963113, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Zolfaghari, A.; Minuchehr, A. [Engineering Department, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C, P.O.Box: 1983963113, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-04-15

Highlights: ► Exploit of DHS algorithm in LP optimization reveals its flexibility, robustness and reliability. ► Upshot of our experiments with DHS shows that the search approach to optimal LP is quickly. ► On the average, the final band width of DHS fitness values is narrow relative to HS and GHS. -- Abstract: The objective of this work is to develop a core loading optimization technique using differential harmony search algorithm in the context of obtaining an optimal configuration of fuel assemblies in pressurized water reactors. To implement and evaluate the proposed technique, differential harmony search nodal expansion package for 2-D geometry, DHSNEP-2D, is developed. The package includes two modules; in the first modules differential harmony search (DHS) is implemented and nodal expansion code which solves two dimensional-multi group neutron diffusion equations using fourth degree flux expansion with one node per a fuel assembly is in the second module. For evaluation of DHS algorithm, classical harmony search (HS) and global-best harmony search (GHS) algorithms are also included in DHSNEP-2D in order to compare the outcome of techniques together. For this purpose, two PWR test cases have been investigated to demonstrate the DHS algorithm capability in obtaining near optimal loading pattern. Results show that the convergence rate of DHS and execution times are quite promising and also is reliable for the fuel management operation. Moreover, numerical results show the good performance of DHS relative to other competitive algorithms such as genetic algorithm (GA), classical harmony search (HS) and global-best harmony search (GHS) algorithms.

Differential harmony search algorithm to optimize PWRs loading pattern

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poursalehi, N.; Zolfaghari, A.; Minuchehr, A.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Exploit of DHS algorithm in LP optimization reveals its flexibility, robustness and reliability. ► Upshot of our experiments with DHS shows that the search approach to optimal LP is quickly. ► On the average, the final band width of DHS fitness values is narrow relative to HS and GHS. -- Abstract: The objective of this work is to develop a core loading optimization technique using differential harmony search algorithm in the context of obtaining an optimal configuration of fuel assemblies in pressurized water reactors. To implement and evaluate the proposed technique, differential harmony search nodal expansion package for 2-D geometry, DHSNEP-2D, is developed. The package includes two modules; in the first modules differential harmony search (DHS) is implemented and nodal expansion code which solves two dimensional-multi group neutron diffusion equations using fourth degree flux expansion with one node per a fuel assembly is in the second module. For evaluation of DHS algorithm, classical harmony search (HS) and global-best harmony search (GHS) algorithms are also included in DHSNEP-2D in order to compare the outcome of techniques together. For this purpose, two PWR test cases have been investigated to demonstrate the DHS algorithm capability in obtaining near optimal loading pattern. Results show that the convergence rate of DHS and execution times are quite promising and also is reliable for the fuel management operation. Moreover, numerical results show the good performance of DHS relative to other competitive algorithms such as genetic algorithm (GA), classical harmony search (HS) and global-best harmony search (GHS) algorithms

A new hybrid model optimized by an intelligent optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Su, Zhongyue; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan; Zhao, Ge

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new hybrid model is developed for wind speed forecasting. • The model is based on the Kalman filter and the ARIMA. • An intelligent optimization method is employed in the hybrid model. • The new hybrid model has good performance in western China. - Abstract: Forecasting the wind speed is indispensable in wind-related engineering studies and is important in the management of wind farms. As a technique essential for the future of clean energy systems, reducing the forecasting errors related to wind speed has always been an important research subject. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman filter is proposed to forecast the daily mean wind speed in western China. This approach employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an intelligent optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the ARIMA model, which develops a hybrid model that is best adapted to the data set, increasing the fitting accuracy and avoiding over-fitting. The proposed method is subsequently examined on the wind farms of western China, where the proposed hybrid model is shown to perform effectively and steadily

Energy Demand Forecasting: Combining Cointegration Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junbing Huang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Energy is vital for the sustainable development of China. Accurate forecasts of annual energy demand are essential to schedule energy supply and provide valuable suggestions for developing related industries. In the existing literature on energy use prediction, the artificial intelligence-based (AI-based model has received considerable attention. However, few econometric and statistical evidences exist that can prove the reliability of the current AI-based model, an area that still needs to be addressed. In this study, a new energy demand forecasting framework is presented at first. On the basis of historical annual data of electricity usage over the period of 1985–2015, the coefficients of linear and quadratic forms of the AI-based model are optimized by combining an adaptive genetic algorithm and a cointegration analysis shown as an example. Prediction results of the proposed model indicate that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in China will slow down. However, China will continue to demand about 13 trillion kilowatt hours in 2030 because of population growth, economic growth, and urbanization. In addition, the model has greater accuracy and reliability compared with other single optimization methods.

An Optimized Forecasting Approach Based on Grey Theory and Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Electricity Consumption in New South Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Jiang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available With rapid economic growth, electricity demand is clearly increasing. It is difficult to store electricity for future use; thus, the electricity demand forecast, especially the electricity consumption forecast, is crucial for planning and operating a power system. Due to various unstable factors, it is challenging to forecast electricity consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to establish new models for accurate forecasts. This study proposes a hybrid model, which includes data selection, an abnormality analysis, a feasibility test, and an optimized grey model to forecast electricity consumption. First, the original electricity consumption data are selected to construct different schemes (Scheme 1: short-term selection and Scheme 2: long-term selection; next, the iterative algorithm (IA and cuckoo search algorithm (CS are employed to select the best parameter of GM(1,1. The forecasted day is then divided into several smooth parts because the grey model is highly accurate in the smooth rise and drop phases; thus, the best scheme for each part is determined using the grey correlation coefficient. Finally, the experimental results indicate that the GM(1,1 optimized using CS has the highest forecasting accuracy compared with the GM(1,1 and the GM(1,1 optimized using the IA and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model.

Integration of genetic algorithm, computer simulation and design of experiments for forecasting electrical energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Tarverdian, S.

2007-01-01

This study presents an integrated algorithm for forecasting monthly electrical energy consumption based on genetic algorithm (GA), computer simulation and design of experiments using stochastic procedures. First, time-series model is developed as a benchmark for GA and simulation. Computer simulation is developed to generate random variables for monthly electricity consumption. This is achieved to foresee the effects of probabilistic distribution on monthly electricity consumption. The GA and simulated-based GA models are then developed by the selected time-series model. Therefore, there are four treatments to be considered in analysis of variance (ANOVA) which are actual data, time series, GA and simulated-based GA. Furthermore, ANOVA is used to test the null hypothesis of the above four alternatives being equal. If the null hypothesis is accepted, then the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value is used to select the best model, otherwise the Duncan Multiple Range Test (DMRT) method of paired comparison is used to select the optimum model, which could be time series, GA or simulated-based GA. In case of ties the lowest MAPE value is considered as the benchmark. The integrated algorithm has several unique features. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and MAPE, whereas previous studies consider the best-fit GA model based on MAPE or relative error results. Second, the proposed algorithm may identify conventional time series as the best model for future electricity consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that GA always provide the best solutions and estimation. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed algorithm, the monthly electricity consumption in Iran from March 1994 to February 2005 (131 months) is used and applied to the proposed algorithm

Short-Term Power Load Point Prediction Based on the Sharp Degree and Chaotic RBF Neural Network

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Dongxiao Niu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to realize the predicting and positioning of short-term load inflection point, this paper made reference to related research in the field of computer image recognition. It got a load sharp degree sequence by the transformation of the original load sequence based on the algorithm of sharp degree. Then this paper designed a forecasting model based on the chaos theory and RBF neural network. It predicted the load sharp degree sequence based on the forecasting model to realize the positioning of short-term load inflection point. Finally, in the empirical example analysis, this paper predicted the daily load point of a region using the actual load data of the certain region to verify the effectiveness and applicability of this method. Prediction results showed that most of the test sample load points could be accurately predicted.

Multicycle Optimization of Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactor Loading Patterns Using Genetic Algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziver, A. Kemal; Carter, Jonathan N.; Pain, Christopher C.; Oliveira, Cassiano R.E. de; Goddard, Antony J. H.; Overton, Richard S.

2003-01-01

A genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimizer (GAOPT) has been developed for in-core fuel management of advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGRs) at HINKLEY B and HARTLEPOOL, which employ on-load and off-load refueling, respectively. The optimizer has been linked to the reactor analysis code PANTHER for the automated evaluation of loading patterns in a two-dimensional geometry, which is collapsed from the three-dimensional reactor model. GAOPT uses a directed stochastic (Monte Carlo) algorithm to generate initial population members, within predetermined constraints, for use in GAs, which apply the standard genetic operators: selection by tournament, crossover, and mutation. The GAOPT is able to generate and optimize loading patterns for successive reactor cycles (multicycle) within acceptable CPU times even on single-processor systems. The algorithm allows radial shuffling of fuel assemblies in a multicycle refueling optimization, which is constructed to aid long-term core management planning decisions. This paper presents the application of the GA-based optimization to two AGR stations, which apply different in-core management operational rules. Results obtained from the testing of GAOPT are discussed

Study on network traffic forecast model of SVR optimized by GAFSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yuan; Wang, RuiXue

2016-01-01

There are some problems, such as low precision, on existing network traffic forecast model. In accordance with these problems, this paper proposed the network traffic forecast model of support vector regression (SVR) algorithm optimized by global artificial fish swarm algorithm (GAFSA). GAFSA constitutes an improvement of artificial fish swarm algorithm, which is a swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with a significant effect of optimization. The optimum training parameters used for SVR could be calculated by optimizing chosen parameters, which would make the forecast more accurate. With the optimum training parameters searched by GAFSA algorithm, a model of network traffic forecast, which greatly solved problems of great errors in SVR improved by others intelligent algorithms, could be built with the forecast result approaching stability and the increased forecast precision. The simulation shows that, compared with other models (e.g. GA-SVR, CPSO-SVR), the forecast results of GAFSA-SVR network traffic forecast model is more stable with the precision improved to more than 89%, which plays an important role on instructing network control behavior and analyzing security situation.

Forecasting of Power Grid Investment in China Based on Support Vector Machine Optimized by Differential Evolution Algorithm and Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuyu Dai

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the construction of China’s power grid has experienced rapid development, and its scale has leaped into the first place in the world. Accurate and effective prediction of power grid investment can not only help pool funds and rationally arrange investment in power grid construction, but also reduce capital costs and economic risks, which plays a crucial role in promoting power grid investment planning and construction process. In order to forecast the power grid investment of China accurately, firstly on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of power grid investment, the influencing factors system for China’s power grid investment forecasting is constructed in this article. The method of grey relational analysis is used for screening the main influencing factors as the prediction model input. Then, a novel power grid investment prediction model based on DE-GWO-SVM (support vector machine optimized by differential evolution and grey wolf optimization algorithm is proposed. Next, two cases are taken for empirical analysis to prove that the DE-GWO-SVM model has strong generalization capacity and has achieved a good prediction effect for power grid investment forecasting in China. Finally, the DE-GWO-SVM model is adopted to forecast power grid investment in China from 2018 to 2022.

Using Load Balancing to Scalably Parallelize Sampling-Based Motion Planning Algorithms

KAUST Repository

Fidel, Adam; Jacobs, Sam Ade; Sharma, Shishir; Amato, Nancy M.; Rauchwerger, Lawrence

2014-01-01

Motion planning, which is the problem of computing feasible paths in an environment for a movable object, has applications in many domains ranging from robotics, to intelligent CAD, to protein folding. The best methods for solving this PSPACE-hard problem are so-called sampling-based planners. Recent work introduced uniform spatial subdivision techniques for parallelizing sampling-based motion planning algorithms that scaled well. However, such methods are prone to load imbalance, as planning time depends on region characteristics and, for most problems, the heterogeneity of the sub problems increases as the number of processors increases. In this work, we introduce two techniques to address load imbalance in the parallelization of sampling-based motion planning algorithms: an adaptive work stealing approach and bulk-synchronous redistribution. We show that applying these techniques to representatives of the two major classes of parallel sampling-based motion planning algorithms, probabilistic roadmaps and rapidly-exploring random trees, results in a more scalable and load-balanced computation on more than 3,000 cores. © 2014 IEEE.

Using Load Balancing to Scalably Parallelize Sampling-Based Motion Planning Algorithms

KAUST Repository

Fidel, Adam

2014-05-01

Motion planning, which is the problem of computing feasible paths in an environment for a movable object, has applications in many domains ranging from robotics, to intelligent CAD, to protein folding. The best methods for solving this PSPACE-hard problem are so-called sampling-based planners. Recent work introduced uniform spatial subdivision techniques for parallelizing sampling-based motion planning algorithms that scaled well. However, such methods are prone to load imbalance, as planning time depends on region characteristics and, for most problems, the heterogeneity of the sub problems increases as the number of processors increases. In this work, we introduce two techniques to address load imbalance in the parallelization of sampling-based motion planning algorithms: an adaptive work stealing approach and bulk-synchronous redistribution. We show that applying these techniques to representatives of the two major classes of parallel sampling-based motion planning algorithms, probabilistic roadmaps and rapidly-exploring random trees, results in a more scalable and load-balanced computation on more than 3,000 cores. © 2014 IEEE.

Model of load balancing using reliable algorithm with multi-agent system

Science.gov (United States)

Afriansyah, M. F.; Somantri, M.; Riyadi, M. A.

2017-04-01

Massive technology development is linear with the growth of internet users which increase network traffic activity. It also increases load of the system. The usage of reliable algorithm and mobile agent in distributed load balancing is a viable solution to handle the load issue on a large-scale system. Mobile agent works to collect resource information and can migrate according to given task. We propose reliable load balancing algorithm using least time first byte (LFB) combined with information from the mobile agent. In system overview, the methodology consisted of defining identification system, specification requirements, network topology and design system infrastructure. The simulation method for simulated system was using 1800 request for 10 s from the user to the server and taking the data for analysis. Software simulation was based on Apache Jmeter by observing response time and reliability of each server and then compared it with existing method. Results of performed simulation show that the LFB method with mobile agent can perform load balancing with efficient systems to all backend server without bottleneck, low risk of server overload, and reliable.

Fisher Information Based Meteorological Factors Introduction and Features Selection for Short-Term Load Forecasting

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Shuping Cai

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Weather information is an important factor in short-term load forecasting (STLF. However, for a long time, more importance has always been attached to forecasting models instead of other processes such as the introduction of weather factors or feature selection for STLF. The main aim of this paper is to develop a novel methodology based on Fisher information for meteorological variables introduction and variable selection in STLF. Fisher information computation for one-dimensional and multidimensional weather variables is first described, and then the introduction of meteorological factors and variables selection for STLF models are discussed in detail. On this basis, different forecasting models with the proposed methodology are established. The proposed methodology is implemented on real data obtained from Electric Power Utility of Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, in southeast China. The results show the advantages of the proposed methodology in comparison with other traditional ones regarding prediction accuracy, and it has very good practical significance. Therefore, it can be used as a unified method for introducing weather variables into STLF models, and selecting their features.

Investigation on the improvement of genetic algorithm for PWR loading pattern search and its benchmark verification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Qianqian; Jiang Xiaofeng; Zhang Shaohong

2009-01-01

In this study, the age technique, the concepts of relativeness degree and worth function are exploited to improve the performance of genetic algorithm (GA) for PWR loading pattern search. Among them, the age technique endows the algorithm be capable of learning from previous search 'experience' and guides it to do a better search in the vicinity ora local optimal; the introduction of the relativeness degree checks the relativeness of two loading patterns before performing crossover between them, which can significantly reduce the possibility of prematurity of the algorithm; while the application of the worth function makes the algorithm be capable of generating new loading patterns based on the statistics of common features of evaluated good loading patterns. Numerical verification against a loading pattern search benchmark problem ora two-loop reactor demonstrates that the adoption of these techniques is able to significantly enhance the efficiency of the genetic algorithm while improves the quality of the final solution as well. (authors)

Scheduling algorithms for saving energy and balancing load

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antoniadis, Antonios

2012-08-03

In this thesis we study problems of scheduling tasks in computing environments. We consider both the modern objective function of minimizing energy consumption, and the classical objective of balancing load across machines. We first investigate offline deadline-based scheduling in the setting of a single variable-speed processor that is equipped with a sleep state. The objective is that of minimizing the total energy consumption. Apart from settling the complexity of the problem by showing its NP-hardness, we provide a lower bound of 2 for general convex power functions, and a particular natural class of schedules called s{sub crit}-schedules. We also present an algorithmic framework for designing good approximation algorithms. For general convex power functions our framework improves the best known approximation-factor from 2 to 4/3. This factor can be reduced even further to 137/117 for a specific well-motivated class of power functions. Furthermore, we give tight bounds to show that our framework returns optimal s{sub crit}-schedules for the two aforementioned power-function classes. We then focus on the multiprocessor setting where each processor has the ability to vary its speed. Job migration is allowed, and we again consider classical deadline-based scheduling with the objective of energy minimization. We first study the offline problem and show that optimal schedules can be computed efficiently in polynomial time for any convex and non-decreasing power function. Our algorithm relies on repeated maximum flow computations. Regarding the online problem and power functions P(s) = s{sup {alpha}}, where s is the processor speed and {alpha} > 1 a constant, we extend the two well-known single-processor algorithms Optimal Available and Average Rate. We prove that Optimal Available is {alpha}{sup {alpha}}-competitive as in the single-processor case. For Average Rate we show a competitive factor of (2{alpha}){sup {alpha}}/2 + 1, i.e., compared to the single

An efficient approach for electric load forecasting using distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) and HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network) neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Yuan; Wang, Jian-zhou; Tang, Yun; Yang, Yu-chen

2011-01-01

This paper presents a neural network based on adaptive resonance theory, named distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) and HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network), applied to the electric load forecasting problem. The distributed ART combines the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multi-layer perceptions. The HS-ARTMAP, a hybrid of an RBF (Radial Basis Function)-network-like module which uses hyper-sphere basis function substitute the Gaussian basis function and an ART-like module, performs incremental learning capabilities in function approximation problem. The HS-ARTMAP only receives the compressed distributed coding processed by distributed ART to deal with the proliferation problem which ARTMAP (adaptive resonance theory map) architecture often encounters and still performs well in electric load forecasting. To demonstrate the performance of the methodology, data from New South Wales and Victoria in Australia are illustrated. Results show that the developed method is much better than the traditional BP and single HS-ARTMAP neural network. -- Research highlights: → The processing of the presented network is based on compressed distributed data. It's an innovation among the adaptive resonance theory architecture. → The presented network decreases the proliferation the Fuzzy ARTMAP architectures usually encounter. → The network on-line forecasts electrical load accurately, stably. → Both one-period and multi-period load forecasting are executed using data of different cities.

Comparison of optimization of loading patterns on the basis of SA and PMA algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beliczai, Botond

2007-01-01

Optimization of loading patterns is a very important task from economical point of view in a nuclear power plant. The optimization algorithms used for this purpose can be categorized basically into two categories: deterministic ones and stochastic ones. In the Paks nuclear power plant a deterministic optimization procedure is used to optimize the loading pattern at BOC, so that the core would have maximal reactivity reserve. To the group of stochastic optimization procedures belong mainly simulated annealing (SA) procedures and genetic algorithms (GA). There are new procedures as well, which try to combine the advantages of SAs and GAs. One of them is called population mutation annealing algorithm (PMA). In the Paks NPP we would like to introduce fuel assemblies including burnable poison (Gd) in the near future. In order to be able to find the optimal loading pattern (or near-optimal loading patterns) in that case, we have to optimize our core not only for objective functions defined at BOC, but at EOC as well. For this purpose I used stochastic algorithms (SA and PMA) to investigate loading pattern optimization results for different objective functions at BOC. (author)

Performance evaluation of Genetic Algorithms on loading pattern optimization of PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tombakoglu, M.; Bekar, K.B.; Erdemli, A.O.

2001-01-01

Genetic Algorithm (GA) based systems are used for search and optimization problems. There are several applications of GAs in literature successfully applied for loading pattern optimization problems. In this study, we have selected loading pattern optimization problem of Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR). The main objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of Genetic Algorithm operators such as regional crossover, crossover and mutation, and selection and construction of initial population and its size for PWR loading pattern optimization problems. The performance of GA with antithetic variates is compared to traditional GA. Antithetic variates are used to generate the initial population and its use with GA operators are also discussed. Finally, the results of multi-cycle optimization problems are discussed for objective function taking into account cycle burn-up and discharge burn-up.(author)

Implementation and testing of a simple data assimilation algorithm in the regional air pollution forecast model, DEOM

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frydendall, Jan; Brandt, J.; Christensen, J. H.

2009-01-01

A simple data assimilation algorithm based on statistical interpolation has been developed and coupled to a long-range chemistry transport model, the Danish Eulerian Operational Model (DEOM), applied for air pollution forecasting at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Denmark....... In this paper, the algorithm and the results from experiments designed to find the optimal setup of the algorithm are described. The algorithm has been developed and optimized via eight different experiments where the results from different model setups have been tested against measurements from the EMEP...... (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) network covering a half-year period, April-September 1999. The best performing setup of the data assimilation algorithm for surface ozone concentrations has been found, including the combination of determining the covariances using the Hollingsworth method...

Angular-contact ball-bearing internal load estimation algorithm using runtime adaptive relaxation

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, H.; Mutu, R.

2017-07-01

An algorithm to estimate internal loads for single-row angular contact ball bearings due to externally applied thrust loads and high-operating speeds is presented. A new runtime adaptive relaxation procedure and blending function is proposed which ensures algorithm stability whilst also reducing the number of iterations needed to reach convergence, leading to an average reduction in computation time in excess of approximately 80%. The model is validated based on a 218 angular contact bearing and shows excellent agreement compared to published results.

Forecasting building energy consumption with hybrid genetic algorithm-hierarchical adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Kangji [Institute of Cyber-Systems and Control, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027 (China); School of Electricity Information Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013 (China); Su, Hongye [Institute of Cyber-Systems and Control, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027 (China)

2010-11-15

There are several ways to forecast building energy consumption, varying from simple regression to models based on physical principles. In this paper, a new method, namely, the hybrid genetic algorithm-hierarchical adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (GA-HANFIS) model is developed. In this model, hierarchical structure decreases the rule base dimension. Both clustering and rule base parameters are optimized by GAs and neural networks (NNs). The model is applied to predict a hotel's daily air conditioning consumption for a period over 3 months. The results obtained by the proposed model are presented and compared with regular method of NNs, which indicates that GA-HANFIS model possesses better performance than NNs in terms of their forecasting accuracy. (author)

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

Science.gov (United States)

García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

2016-05-01

Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions, especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature. The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic earthquakes.

Artificial bee colony algorithm for economic load dispatch with wind power energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Safari Amin

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an efficient Artificial Bee Colony (ABC algorithm for solving large scale economic load dispatch (ELD problems in power networks. To realize the ELD, the valve-point loading effect, system load demand, power losses, ramp rate limits and prohibited operation zones are considered here. Simulations were performed on four different power systems with 3, 6, 15 and 40 generating units and the results are compared with two forms of power systems, one power system is with a wind power generator and other power system is without a wind power generator. The results of this study reveal that the proposed approach is able to find appreciable ELD solutions than those of previous algorithms.

Wind Speed Forecasting Based on FEEMD and LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Sun

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Affected by various environmental factors, wind speed presents high fluctuation, nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. To evaluate wind energy properly and efficiently, this paper proposes a modified fast ensemble empirical model decomposition (FEEMD-bat algorithm (BA-least support vector machines (LSSVM (FEEMD-BA-LSSVM model combined with input selected by deep quantitative analysis. The original wind speed series are first decomposed into a limited number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs with one residual series. Then a LSSVM is built to forecast these sub-series. In order to select input from environment variables, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are proposed to check the influence of temperature with different leading lengths. Partial correlation is applied to analyze the inner relationships between the historical speeds thus to select the LSSVM input. The parameters in LSSVM are fine-tuned by BA to ensure the generalization of LSSVM. The forecasting results suggest the hybrid approach outperforms the compared models.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting for Wind Speeds Using Support Vector Regression Coupled with Artificial Intelligent Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Jiang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Wind speed/power has received increasing attention around the earth due to its renewable nature as well as environmental friendliness. With the global installed wind power capacity rapidly increasing, wind industry is growing into a large-scale business. Reliable short-term wind speed forecasts play a practical and crucial role in wind energy conversion systems, such as the dynamic control of wind turbines and power system scheduling. In this paper, an intelligent hybrid model for short-term wind speed prediction is examined; the model is based on cross correlation (CC analysis and a support vector regression (SVR model that is coupled with brainstorm optimization (BSO and cuckoo search (CS algorithms, which are successfully utilized for parameter determination. The proposed hybrid models were used to forecast short-term wind speeds collected from four wind turbines located on a wind farm in China. The forecasting results demonstrate that the intelligent hybrid models outperform single models for short-term wind speed forecasting, which mainly results from the superiority of BSO and CS for parameter optimization.

A Deep Learning Algorithm of Neural Network for the Parameterization of Typhoon-Ocean Feedback in Typhoon Forecast Models

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Guo-Qing; Xu, Jing; Wei, Jun

2018-04-01

Two algorithms based on machine learning neural networks are proposed—the shallow learning (S-L) and deep learning (D-L) algorithms—that can potentially be used in atmosphere-only typhoon forecast models to provide flow-dependent typhoon-induced sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) for improving typhoon predictions. The major challenge of existing SSTC algorithms in forecast models is how to accurately predict SSTC induced by an upcoming typhoon, which requires information not only from historical data but more importantly also from the target typhoon itself. The S-L algorithm composes of a single layer of neurons with mixed atmospheric and oceanic factors. Such a structure is found to be unable to represent correctly the physical typhoon-ocean interaction. It tends to produce an unstable SSTC distribution, for which any perturbations may lead to changes in both SSTC pattern and strength. The D-L algorithm extends the neural network to a 4 × 5 neuron matrix with atmospheric and oceanic factors being separated in different layers of neurons, so that the machine learning can determine the roles of atmospheric and oceanic factors in shaping the SSTC. Therefore, it produces a stable crescent-shaped SSTC distribution, with its large-scale pattern determined mainly by atmospheric factors (e.g., winds) and small-scale features by oceanic factors (e.g., eddies). Sensitivity experiments reveal that the D-L algorithms improve maximum wind intensity errors by 60-70% for four case study simulations, compared to their atmosphere-only model runs.

GENETIC ALGORITHM BASED CONCEPT DESIGN TO OPTIMIZE NETWORK LOAD BALANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashish Jain

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Multiconstraints optimal network load balancing is an NP-hard problem and it is an important part of traffic engineering. In this research we balance the network load using classical method (brute force approach and dynamic programming is used but result shows the limitation of this method but at a certain level we recognized that the optimization of balanced network load with increased number of nodes and demands is intractable using the classical method because the solution set increases exponentially. In such case the optimization techniques like evolutionary techniques can employ for optimizing network load balance. In this paper we analyzed proposed classical algorithm and evolutionary based genetic approach is devise as well as proposed in this paper for optimizing the balance network load.

Simple nuclear norm based algorithms for imputing missing data and forecasting in time series

OpenAIRE

Butcher, Holly Louise; Gillard, Jonathan William

2017-01-01

There has been much recent progress on the use of the nuclear norm for the so-called matrix completion problem (the problem of imputing missing values of a matrix). In this paper we investigate the use of the nuclear norm for modelling time series, with particular attention to imputing missing data and forecasting. We introduce a simple alternating projections type algorithm based on the nuclear norm for these tasks, and consider a number of practical examples.

Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoff, Thomas Hoff [Clean Power Research, L.L.C., Napa, CA (United States); Kankiewicz, Adam [Clean Power Research, L.L.C., Napa, CA (United States)

2016-02-26

Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California Independent System Operator’s (ISO) load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter (BTM) PV forecasts. The three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models included: the infrared (IR) satellite-based cloud motion vector (CMV) model; the WRF-SolarCA model and variants; and the Optimized Deep Machine Learning (ODML)-training model. The first two forecasting models targeted known weaknesses in current operational solar forecasts. They were benchmarked against existing operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, visible satellite CMV forecasts, and measured PV plant power production. IR CMV, WRF-SolarCA, and ODML-training forecasting models all improved the forecast to a significant degree. Improvements varied depending on time of day, cloudiness index, and geographic location. The fourth objective was to demonstrate that the California ISO’s load forecasts could be improved by integrating BTM PV forecasts. This objective represented the project’s most exciting and applicable gains. Operational BTM forecasts consisting of 200,000+ individual rooftop PV forecasts were delivered into the California ISO’s real-time automated load forecasting (ALFS) environment. They were then evaluated side-by-side with operational load forecasts with no BTM-treatment. Overall, ALFS-BTM day-ahead (DA) forecasts performed better than baseline ALFS forecasts when compared to actual load data. Specifically, ALFS-BTM DA forecasts were observed to have the largest reduction of error during the afternoon on cloudy days. Shorter term 30 minute-ahead ALFS-BTM forecasts were shown to have less error under all sky conditions, especially during the morning time periods when traditional load forecasts often experience their largest

Short-Term Distribution System State Forecast Based on Optimal Synchrophasor Sensor Placement and Extreme Learning Machine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen

2016-11-14

This paper proposes an approach for distribution system state forecasting, which aims to provide an accurate and high speed state forecasting with an optimal synchrophasor sensor placement (OSSP) based state estimator and an extreme learning machine (ELM) based forecaster. Specifically, considering the sensor installation cost and measurement error, an OSSP algorithm is proposed to reduce the number of synchrophasor sensor and keep the whole distribution system numerically and topologically observable. Then, the weighted least square (WLS) based system state estimator is used to produce the training data for the proposed forecaster. Traditionally, the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) are widely used in forecasting due to their nonlinear modeling capabilities. However, the ANN contains heavy computation load and the best parameters for SVR are difficult to obtain. In this paper, the ELM, which overcomes these drawbacks, is used to forecast the future system states with the historical system states. The proposed approach is effective and accurate based on the testing results.

Sampling-Based Motion Planning Algorithms for Replanning and Spatial Load Balancing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boardman, Beth Leigh [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-10-12

The common theme of this dissertation is sampling-based motion planning with the two key contributions being in the area of replanning and spatial load balancing for robotic systems. Here, we begin by recalling two sampling-based motion planners: the asymptotically optimal rapidly-exploring random tree (RRT*), and the asymptotically optimal probabilistic roadmap (PRM*). We also provide a brief background on collision cones and the Distributed Reactive Collision Avoidance (DRCA) algorithm. The next four chapters detail novel contributions for motion replanning in environments with unexpected static obstacles, for multi-agent collision avoidance, and spatial load balancing. First, we show improved performance of the RRT* when using the proposed Grandparent-Connection (GP) or Focused-Refinement (FR) algorithms. Next, the Goal Tree algorithm for replanning with unexpected static obstacles is detailed and proven to be asymptotically optimal. A multi-agent collision avoidance problem in obstacle environments is approached via the RRT*, leading to the novel Sampling-Based Collision Avoidance (SBCA) algorithm. The SBCA algorithm is proven to guarantee collision free trajectories for all of the agents, even when subject to uncertainties in the knowledge of the other agents’ positions and velocities. Given that a solution exists, we prove that livelocks and deadlock will lead to the cost to the goal being decreased. We introduce a new deconfliction maneuver that decreases the cost-to-come at each step. This new maneuver removes the possibility of livelocks and allows a result to be formed that proves convergence to the goal configurations. Finally, we present a limited range Graph-based Spatial Load Balancing (GSLB) algorithm which fairly divides a non-convex space among multiple agents that are subject to differential constraints and have a limited travel distance. The GSLB is proven to converge to a solution when maximizing the area covered by the agents. The analysis

Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

An improved harmony search algorithm for power economic load dispatch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos Coelho, Leandro dos [Pontifical Catholic University of Parana, PUCPR, Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, PPGEPS, Imaculada Conceicao, 1155, 80215-901 Curitiba, PR (Brazil)], E-mail: leandro.coelho@pucpr.br; Mariani, Viviana Cocco [Pontifical Catholic University of Parana, PUCPR, Department of Mechanical Engineering, PPGEM, Imaculada Conceicao, 1155, 80215-901 Curitiba, PR (Brazil)], E-mail: viviana.mariani@pucpr.br

2009-10-15

A meta-heuristic algorithm called harmony search (HS), mimicking the improvisation process of music players, has been recently developed. The HS algorithm has been successful in several optimization problems. The HS algorithm does not require derivative information and uses stochastic random search instead of a gradient search. In addition, the HS algorithm is simple in concept, few in parameters, and easy in implementation. This paper presents an improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm based on exponential distribution for solving economic dispatch problems. A 13-unit test system with incremental fuel cost function taking into account the valve-point loading effects is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed IHS method. Numerical results show that the IHS method has good convergence property. Furthermore, the generation costs of the IHS method are lower than those of the classical HS and other optimization algorithms reported in recent literature.

An improved harmony search algorithm for power economic load dispatch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coelho, Leandro dos Santos [Pontifical Catholic Univ. of Parana, PUCPR, Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, PPGEPS, Imaculada Conceicao, 1155, 80215-901 Curitiba, PR (Brazil); Mariani, Viviana Cocco [Pontifical Catholic Univ. of Parana, PUCPR, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, PPGEM, Imaculada Conceicao, 1155, 80215-901 Curitiba, PR (Brazil)

2009-10-15

A meta-heuristic algorithm called harmony search (HS), mimicking the improvisation process of music players, has been recently developed. The HS algorithm has been successful in several optimization problems. The HS algorithm does not require derivative information and uses stochastic random search instead of a gradient search. In addition, the HS algorithm is simple in concept, few in parameters, and easy in implementation. This paper presents an improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm based on exponential distribution for solving economic dispatch problems. A 13-unit test system with incremental fuel cost function taking into account the valve-point loading effects is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed IHS method. Numerical results show that the IHS method has good convergence property. Furthermore, the generation costs of the IHS method are lower than those of the classical HS and other optimization algorithms reported in recent literature. (author)

An improved harmony search algorithm for power economic load dispatch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos Coelho, Leandro dos; Mariani, Viviana Cocco

2009-01-01

A meta-heuristic algorithm called harmony search (HS), mimicking the improvisation process of music players, has been recently developed. The HS algorithm has been successful in several optimization problems. The HS algorithm does not require derivative information and uses stochastic random search instead of a gradient search. In addition, the HS algorithm is simple in concept, few in parameters, and easy in implementation. This paper presents an improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm based on exponential distribution for solving economic dispatch problems. A 13-unit test system with incremental fuel cost function taking into account the valve-point loading effects is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed IHS method. Numerical results show that the IHS method has good convergence property. Furthermore, the generation costs of the IHS method are lower than those of the classical HS and other optimization algorithms reported in recent literature.

Load and Flexibility Models for Distribution Grid Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kouzelis, Konstantinos

to advanced metering and control infrastructure investments. These investments will transform distribution networks into smarter" grids which will facilitate flexible load/generation control in return for financial and reliability benefits to electricity consumers. The theoretical idea of modernising the grid...... involve lack of generic load forecasts, need for flexible load/generation estimation techniques from smart meter measurements, deficiencies in online load distribution observability, and, finally, energy market compatible control algorithms which treat consumer flexibility in a fair manner. These modules...... congestions, is proposed. In the first step, a central controller manages flexibility proactively, whereas in the second step a decentralised control scheme deals with flexibility reactively. Both controllers are designed in such a way, that compatibility with contemporary markets is assured, while special...

A Deep Machine Learning Algorithm to Optimize the Forecast of Atmospherics

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, A. M.; Alliss, R. J.; Felton, B. D.

approach is validated using in-situ observations of clouds. All of the hybrid RF-WRF experiments demonstrated here significantly outperform the base WRF local low cloud cover forecasts in terms of the probability of detection and the overall bias. In particular, RF experiments that use only regional three-dimensional moisture predictors from the WRF model produce the highest accuracy when compared to RF experiments that use local surface predictors only or regional inversion predictors only. Furthermore, adding multiple types of WRF predictors and additional WRF predictors to the RF algorithm does not necessarily add more value in the resulting forecasts, indicating that it is better to have a small set of meaningful predictors than to have a vast set of indiscriminately-chosen predictors. This work also reveals that the WRF-based RF approach is highly sensitive to the time period over which the algorithm is trained and evaluated. Future work will focus on developing a similar WRF-based RF model for high cloud prediction and expanding the algorithm to two-dimensions horizontally.

An Interval Bound Algorithm of optimizing reactor core loading pattern by using reactivity interval schema

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Zhaohu; Wang Kan; Yao Dong

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We present a new Loading Pattern Optimization method - Interval Bound Algorithm (IBA). → IBA directly uses the reactivity of fuel assemblies and burnable poison. → IBA can optimize fuel assembly orientation in a coupled way. → Numerical experiment shows that IBA outperforms genetic algorithm and engineers. → We devise DDWF technique to deal with multiple objectives and constraints. - Abstract: In order to optimize the core loading pattern in Nuclear Power Plants, the paper presents a new optimization method - Interval Bound Algorithm (IBA). Similar to the typical population based algorithms, e.g. genetic algorithm, IBA maintains a population of solutions and evolves them during the optimization process. IBA acquires the solution by statistical learning and sampling the control variable intervals of the population in each iteration. The control variables are the transforms of the reactivity of fuel assemblies or the worth of burnable poisons, which are the crucial heuristic information for loading pattern optimization problems. IBA can deal with the relationship between the dependent variables by defining the control variables. Based on the IBA algorithm, a parallel Loading Pattern Optimization code, named IBALPO, has been developed. To deal with multiple objectives and constraints, the Dynamic Discontinuous Weight Factors (DDWF) for the fitness function have been used in IBALPO. Finally, the code system has been used to solve a realistic reloading problem and a better pattern has been obtained compared with the ones searched by engineers and genetic algorithm, thus the performance of the code is proved.

Youth temperament, harsh parenting, and variation in the oxytocin receptor gene forecast allostatic load during emerging adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Barton, Allen W; Miller, Gregory E; Chen, Edith

2017-08-01

An association has been found between receipt of harsh parenting in childhood and adult health problems. However, this research has been principally retrospective, has treated children as passive recipients of parental behavior, and has overlooked individual differences in youth responsivity to harsh parenting. In a 10-year multiple-wave prospective study of African American families, we addressed these issues by focusing on the influence of polymorphisms in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR), variants of which appear to buffer or amplify responses to environmental stress. The participants were 303 youths, with a mean age of 11.2 at the first assessment, and their parents, all of whom were genotyped for variations in the rs53576 (A/G) polymorphism. Teachers rated preadolescent (ages 11 to 13) emotionally intense and distractible temperaments, and adolescents (ages 15 and 16) reported receipt of harsh parenting. Allostatic load was assessed during young adulthood (ages 20 and 21). Difficult preadolescent temperament forecast elevated receipt of harsh parenting in adolescence, and adolescents who experienced harsh parenting evinced high allostatic load during young adulthood. However, these associations emerged only among children and parents who carried A alleles of the OXTR genotype. The results suggest the oxytocin system operates along with temperament and parenting to forecast young adults' allostatic load.

Application of the distributed genetic algorithm for loading pattern optimization problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashimoto, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Akio

2000-01-01

The distributed genetic algorithm (DGA) is applied for loading pattern optimization problems of the pressurized water reactors (PWR). Due to stiff nature of the loading pattern optimizations (e.g. multi-modality and non-linearity), stochastic methods like the simulated annealing or the genetic algorithm (GA) are widely applied for these problems. A basic concept of DGA is based on that of GA. However, DGA equally distributes candidates of solutions (i.e. loading patterns) to several independent 'islands' and evolves them in each island. Migrations of some candidates are performed among islands with a certain period. Since candidates of solutions independently evolve in each island with accepting different genes of migrants from other islands, premature convergence in the traditional GA can be prevented. Because many candidate loading patterns should be evaluated in one generation of GA or DGA, the parallelization in these calculations works efficiently. Parallel efficiency was measured using our optimization code and good load balance was attained even in a heterogeneous cluster environment due to dynamic distribution of the calculation load. The optimization code is based on the client/server architecture with the TCP/IP native socket and a client (optimization module) and calculation server modules communicate the objects of loading patterns each other. Throughout the sensitivity study on optimization parameters of DGA, a suitable set of the parameters for a test problem was identified. Finally, optimization capability of DGA and the traditional GA was compared in the test problem and DGA provided better optimization results than the traditional GA. (author)

Load Balancing Issues with Constructing Phylogenetic Trees using Neighbour-Joining Algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al Mamun, S M

2012-01-01

Phylogenetic tree construction is one of the most important and interesting problems in bioinformatics. Constructing an efficient phylogenetic tree has always been a research issue. It needs to consider both the correctness and the speed of the tree construction. In this paper, we implemented the neighbour-joining algorithm, using Message Passing Interface (MPI) for constructing the phylogenetic tree. Performance is efficacious, comparing to the best sequential algorithm. From this paper, it would be clear to the researchers that how load balance can make a great effect for constructing phylogenetic trees using neighbour-joining algorithm.

An Algorithm for Online Inertia Identification and Load Torque Observation via Adaptive Kalman Observer-Recursive Least Squares

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Yang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an on-line parameter identification algorithm to iteratively compute the numerical values of inertia and load torque is proposed. Since inertia and load torque are strongly coupled variables due to the degenerate-rank problem, it is hard to estimate relatively accurate values for them in the cases such as when load torque variation presents or one cannot obtain a relatively accurate priori knowledge of inertia. This paper eliminates this problem and realizes ideal online inertia identification regardless of load condition and initial error. The algorithm in this paper integrates a full-order Kalman Observer and Recursive Least Squares, and introduces adaptive controllers to enhance the robustness. It has a better performance when iteratively computing load torque and moment of inertia. Theoretical sensitivity analysis of the proposed algorithm is conducted. Compared to traditional methods, the validity of the proposed algorithm is proved by simulation and experiment results.

Power system static state estimation using Kalman filter algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saikia Anupam

2016-01-01

Full Text Available State estimation of power system is an important tool for operation, analysis and forecasting of electric power system. In this paper, a Kalman filter algorithm is presented for static estimation of power system state variables. IEEE 14 bus system is employed to check the accuracy of this method. Newton Raphson load flow study is first carried out on our test system and a set of data from the output of load flow program is taken as measurement input. Measurement inputs are simulated by adding Gaussian noise of zero mean. The results of Kalman estimation are compared with traditional Weight Least Square (WLS method and it is observed that Kalman filter algorithm is numerically more efficient than traditional WLS method. Estimation accuracy is also tested for presence of parametric error in the system. In addition, numerical stability of Kalman filter algorithm is tested by considering inclusion of zero mean errors in the initial estimates.

Optimised operation of an off-grid hybrid wind-diesel-battery system using genetic algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gan, Leong Kit; Shek, Jonathan K.H.; Mueller, Markus A.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Diesel generator’s operation is optimised in a hybrid wind-diesel-battery system. • Optimisation is performed using wind speed and load demand forecasts. • The objective is to maximise wind energy utilisation with limited battery storage. • Physical modelling approach (Simscape) is used to verify mathematical model. • Sensitivity analyses are performed with synthesised wind and load forecast errors. - Abstract: In an off-grid hybrid wind-diesel-battery system, the diesel generator is often not utilised efficiently, therefore compromising its lifetime. In particular, the general rule of thumb of running the diesel generator at more than 40% of its rated capacity is often unmet. This is due to the variation in power demand and wind speed which needs to be supplied by the diesel generator. In addition, the frequent start-stop of the diesel generator leads to additional mechanical wear and fuel wastage. This research paper proposes a novel control algorithm which optimises the operation of a diesel generator, using genetic algorithm. With a given day-ahead forecast of local renewable energy resource and load demand, it is possible to optimise the operation of a diesel generator, subjected to other pre-defined constraints. Thus, the utilisation of the renewable energy sources to supply electricity can be maximised. Usually, the optimisation studies of a hybrid system are being conducted through simple analytical modelling, coupled with a selected optimisation algorithm to seek the optimised solution. The obtained solution is not verified using a more realistic system model, for instance the physical modelling approach. This often led to the question of the applicability of such optimised operation being used in reality. In order to take a step further, model-based design using Simulink is employed in this research to perform a comparison through a physical modelling approach. The Simulink model has the capability to incorporate the electrical

[Demography perspectives and forecasts of the demand for electricity].

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, L; Guimond, E

1995-01-01

"Demographic perspectives form an integral part in the development of electric load forecasts. These forecasts in turn are used to justify the addition and repair of generating facilities that will supply power in the coming decades. The goal of this article is to present how demographic perspectives are incorporated into the electric load forecasting in Quebec. The first part presents the methods, hypotheses and results of population and household projections used by Hydro-Quebec in updating its latest development plan. The second section demonstrates applications of such demographic projections for forecasting the electric load, with a focus on the residential sector." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) excerpt

A Novel Hybrid Model for Short-Term Forecasting in PV Power Generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan-Kang Wu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The increasing use of solar power as a source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting its power output over short-time horizons. Short-term forecasts are needed for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, reserve usage, and peak load matching. However, the output of a photovoltaic (PV system is influenced by irradiation, cloud cover, and other weather conditions. These factors make it difficult to conduct short-term PV output forecasting. In this paper, an experimental database of solar power output, solar irradiance, air, and module temperature data has been utilized. It includes data from the Green Energy Office Building in Malaysia, the Taichung Thermal Plant of Taipower, and National Penghu University. Based on the historical PV power and weather data provided in the experiment, all factors that influence photovoltaic-generated energy are discussed. Moreover, five types of forecasting modules were developed and utilized to predict the one-hour-ahead PV output. They include the ARIMA, SVM, ANN, ANFIS, and the combination models using GA algorithm. Forecasting results show the high precision and efficiency of this combination model. Therefore, the proposed model is suitable for ensuring the stable operation of a photovoltaic generation system.

Multiobjective Economic Load Dispatch in 3-D Space by Genetic Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, N. K.; Nangia, Uma; Singh, Iqbal

2017-10-01

This paper presents the application of genetic algorithm to Multiobjective Economic Load Dispatch (MELD) problem considering fuel cost, transmission losses and environmental pollution as objective functions. The MELD problem has been formulated using constraint method. The non-inferior set for IEEE 5, 14 and 30-bus system has been generated by using genetic algorithm and the target point has been obtained by using maximization of minimum relative attainments.

Research reactor loading pattern optimization using estimation of distribution algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, S.; Ziver, K.; Carter, J. N.; Pain, C. C.; Eaton, M. D.; Goddard, A. J. H.; Franklin, S. J.; Phillips, H. J.

2006-01-01

A new evolutionary search based approach for solving the nuclear reactor loading pattern optimization problems is presented based on the Estimation of Distribution Algorithms. The optimization technique developed is then applied to the maximization of the effective multiplication factor (K eff ) of the Imperial College CONSORT research reactor (the last remaining civilian research reactor in the United Kingdom). A new elitism-guided searching strategy has been developed and applied to improve the local convergence together with some problem-dependent information based on the 'stand-alone K eff with fuel coupling calculations. A comparison study between the EDAs and a Genetic Algorithm with Heuristic Tie Breaking Crossover operator has shown that the new algorithm is efficient and robust. (authors)

Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

2015-05-01

The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

A Novel Hybrid Model Based on Extreme Learning Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor Regression and Wavelet Denoising Applied to Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weide Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Electric load forecasting plays an important role in electricity markets and power systems. Because electric load time series are complicated and nonlinear, it is very difficult to achieve a satisfactory forecasting accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid model, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EWKM, which combines k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM based on a wavelet denoising technique is proposed for short-term load forecasting. The proposed hybrid model decomposes the time series into a low frequency-associated main signal and some detailed signals associated with high frequencies at first, then uses KNN to determine the independent and dependent variables from the low-frequency signal. Finally, the ELM is used to get the non-linear relationship between these variables to get the final prediction result for the electric load. Compared with three other models, Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EKM, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine (WKM and Wavelet Denoising-Back Propagation Neural Network optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (WNNM, the model proposed in this paper can improve the accuracy efficiently. New South Wales is the economic powerhouse of Australia, so we use the proposed model to predict electric demand for that region. The accurate prediction has a significant meaning.

Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

2016-04-01

Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

Advanced and flexible genetic algorithms for BWR fuel loading pattern optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin-del-Campo, Cecilia; Palomera-Perez, Miguel-Angel; Francois, Juan-Luis

2009-01-01

This work proposes advances in the implementation of a flexible genetic algorithm (GA) for fuel loading pattern optimization for Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). In order to avoid specific implementations of genetic operators and to obtain a more flexible treatment, a binary representation of the solution was implemented; this representation had to take into account that a little change in the genotype must correspond to a little change in the phenotype. An identifier number is assigned to each assembly by means of a Gray Code of 7 bits and the solution (the loading pattern) is represented by a binary chain of 777 bits of length. Another important contribution is the use of a Fitness Function which includes a Heuristic Function and an Objective Function. The Heuristic Function which is defined to give flexibility on the application of a set of positioning rules based on knowledge, and the Objective Function that contains all the parameters which qualify the neutronic and thermal hydraulic performances of each loading pattern. Experimental results illustrating the effectiveness and flexibility of this optimization algorithm are presented and discussed.

A SOM clustering pattern sequence-based next symbol prediction method for day-ahead direct electricity load and price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin, Cheng Hao; Pok, Gouchol; Lee, Yongmi; Park, Hyun-Woo; Kim, Kwang Deuk; Yun, Unil; Ryu, Keun Ho

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A novel pattern sequence-based direct time series forecasting method was proposed. • Due to the use of SOM’s topology preserving property, only SOM can be applied. • SCPSNSP only deals with the cluster patterns not each specific time series value. • SCPSNSP performs better than recently developed forecasting algorithms. - Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new day-ahead direct time series forecasting method for competitive electricity markets based on clustering and next symbol prediction. In the clustering step, pattern sequence and their topology relations are obtained from self organizing map time series clustering. In the next symbol prediction step, with each cluster label in the pattern sequence represented as a pair of its topologically identical coordinates, artificial neural network is used to predict the topological coordinates of next day by training the relationship between previous daily pattern sequence and its next day pattern. According to the obtained topology relations, the nearest nonzero hits pattern is assigned to next day so that the whole time series values can be directly forecasted from the assigned cluster pattern. The proposed method was evaluated on Spanish, Australian and New York electricity markets and compared with PSF and some of the most recently published forecasting methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the best forecasting methods at least 3.64%

Research reactor loading pattern optimization using estimation of distribution algorithms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, S. [Dept. of Earth Science and Engineering, Applied Modeling and Computation Group AMCG, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Ziver, K. [Dept. of Earth Science and Engineering, Applied Modeling and Computation Group AMCG, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); AMCG Group, RM Consultants, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Carter, J. N.; Pain, C. C.; Eaton, M. D.; Goddard, A. J. H. [Dept. of Earth Science and Engineering, Applied Modeling and Computation Group AMCG, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Franklin, S. J.; Phillips, H. J. [Imperial College, Reactor Centre, Silwood Park, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7TE (United Kingdom)

2006-07-01

A new evolutionary search based approach for solving the nuclear reactor loading pattern optimization problems is presented based on the Estimation of Distribution Algorithms. The optimization technique developed is then applied to the maximization of the effective multiplication factor (K{sub eff}) of the Imperial College CONSORT research reactor (the last remaining civilian research reactor in the United Kingdom). A new elitism-guided searching strategy has been developed and applied to improve the local convergence together with some problem-dependent information based on the 'stand-alone K{sub eff} with fuel coupling calculations. A comparison study between the EDAs and a Genetic Algorithm with Heuristic Tie Breaking Crossover operator has shown that the new algorithm is efficient and robust. (authors)

Development and testing of an innovative short-term large wind ramp forecasting system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zack, J.W. [AWS Truepower LLC, Troy, NY (United States)

2010-07-01

This PowerPoint presentation discussed a ramp forecasting tool designed for use in a region of Texas with a high wind-generating capacity. Large system-wide ramps frequently occur in the region, and curtailments are common due to transmission constraints. The average hourly load of the power system is 32,101 MW. Wind power capacity in the region is 9382 MW. However, actual production rarely exceeds 6500 MW due to the curtailments. The short-term ramp forecasting tool was designed to aid in grid management decisions for the 0-6 hour ahead period as well as to address issues related to wind farm time series data and the lack of situational awareness information. The tool provided rapid updates for grid point wind analysis with feature detection and tracking algorithms and a rapid update cycle model. The tool also featured a suite of web-based applications that included deterministic ramp even forecasts, power production time series forecasts, and situational awareness products that are updated every 15 minutes. A performance evaluation study of the tool was provided. tabs., figs.

Genetic algorithm for the optimization of the loading pattern for reactor core fuel management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Sheng; Hu Yongming; zheng Wenxiang

2000-01-01

The paper discusses the application of a genetic algorithm to the optimization of the loading pattern for in-core fuel management with the NP characteristics. The algorithm develops a matrix model for the fuel assembly loading pattern. The burnable poisons matrix was assigned randomly considering the distributed nature of the poisons. A method based on the traveling salesman problem was used to solve the problem. A integrated code for in-core fuel management was formed by combining this code with a reactor physics code

Forecasting Ability But No Profitability: An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-optimised Technical Trading Rules

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Robert

1999-01-01

This paper evaluates the performance of several popular technical trading rules applied to the Australian share market. The optimal trading rule parameter values over the in-sample period of 4/1/82 to 31/12/89 are found using a genetic algorithm. These optimal rules are then evaluated in terms of their forecasting ability and economic profitability during the out-of-sample period from 2/1/90 to the 31/12/97. The results indicate that the optimal rules outperform the benchmark given by a risk-...

Optimal Selection of Clustering Algorithm via Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA for Load Profiling Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioannis P. Panapakidis

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Due to high implementation rates of smart meter systems, considerable amount of research is placed in machine learning tools for data handling and information retrieval. A key tool in load data processing is clustering. In recent years, a number of researches have proposed different clustering algorithms in the load profiling field. The present paper provides a methodology for addressing the aforementioned problem through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA and namely, using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS. A comparison of the algorithms is employed. Next, a single test case on the selection of an algorithm is examined. User specific weights are applied and based on these weight values, the optimal algorithm is drawn.

PWR loading pattern optimization using Harmony Search algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poursalehi, N.; Zolfaghari, A.; Minuchehr, A.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Numerical results reveal that the HS method is reliable. ► The great advantage of HS is significant gain in computational cost. ► On the average, the final band width of search fitness values is narrow. ► Our experiments show that the search approaches the optimal value fast. - Abstract: In this paper a core reloading technique using Harmony Search, HS, is presented in the context of finding an optimal configuration of fuel assemblies, FA, in pressurized water reactors. To implement and evaluate the proposed technique a Harmony Search along Nodal Expansion Code for 2-D geometry, HSNEC2D, is developed to obtain nearly optimal arrangement of fuel assemblies in PWR cores. This code consists of two sections including Harmony Search algorithm and Nodal Expansion modules using fourth degree flux expansion which solves two dimensional-multi group diffusion equations with one node per fuel assembly. Two optimization test problems are investigated to demonstrate the HS algorithm capability in converging to near optimal loading pattern in the fuel management field and other subjects. Results, convergence rate and reliability of the method are quite promising and show the HS algorithm performs very well and is comparable to other competitive algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Intelligence. Furthermore, implementation of nodal expansion technique along HS causes considerable reduction of computational time to process and analysis optimization in the core fuel management problems

Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, K.-Y.

2007-01-01

This study applies a novel neural-network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecast reliability in engine systems. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in systems reliability prediction by comparing it with the existing neural-network approaches and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. To build an effective SVR model, SVR's parameters must be set carefully. This study proposes a novel approach, known as GA-SVR, which searches for SVR's optimal parameters using real-value genetic algorithms, and then adopts the optimal parameters to construct the SVR models. A real reliability data for 40 suits of turbochargers were employed as the data set. The experimental results demonstrate that SVR outperforms the existing neural-network approaches and the traditional ARIMA models based on the normalized root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error

Adaptive algorithm for predicting increases in central loads of electrical energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arbachyauskene, N A; Pushinaytis, K V

1982-01-01

An adaptive algorithm for predicting increases in central loads of the electrical energy system is suggested for the task of evaluating the condition. The algorithm is based on the Kalman filter. In order to calculate the coefficient of intensification, the a priori assigned noise characteristics with low accuracy are used only in the beginning of the calculation. Further, the coefficient of intensification is calculated from the innovation sequence. This approach makes it possible to correct errors in the assignment of the statistical noise characteristics and to follow their changes. The algorithm is experimentally verified.

Forecasting of resonances vibration equipment with elastic waves coolant and with the external periodic loads on NPP with WWER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proskuryakov, K.N.; Zaporozhets, M.V.; Fedorov, A.I.

2015-01-01

Forecasting are carried out for external loads in relation to the main circulation circuit - dynamic loads caused by the rotation of the MCP, dynamic loads caused by the earthquake, dynamic loads caused by damage to the MCP in the earthquake. A comparison of the response spectrum of one of the variants of the base of the NPP, with the frequency vibration of the primary circuit equipment for NPP with WWER-1000 and self-frequency of elastic waves in the fluid. Analysis of the comparison results shows that the frequency of vibration of the main equipment of the reactor plant and elastic waves are in the frequency band in the spectrum response corresponding to the maximum amplitude of the seismic action [ru

Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hosek

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

2014-01-01

The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

Quantification of Forecast Error Costs of Photovoltaic Prosumers in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Brusco

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the diffusion of electric plants based on renewable non-dispatchable sources has caused large imbalances between the power generation schedule and the actual generation in real time operations, resulting in increased costs for dispatching electric power systems. Although this type of source cannot be programmed, their production can be predicted using soft computing techniques that consider weather forecasts, reducing the imbalance costs paid to the transmission system operator (TSO. The problem is mainly that the forecasting procedures used by the TSO, distribution system operator (DSO or large producers and they are too expensive, as they use complex algorithms and detailed meteorological data that have to be bought, this can represent an excessive charge for small-scale producers, such as prosumers. In this paper, a cheap photovoltaic (PV production forecasting method, in terms of reduced computational effort, free-available meteorological data and implementation is discussed, and the economic results regarding the imbalance costs due to the utilization of this method are analyzed. The economic analysis is carried out considering several factors, such as the month, the day type, and the accuracy of the forecasting method. The user can utilize the implemented method to know and reduce the imbalance costs, by adopting particular load management strategies.

Forecast Icing Product

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

PM2.5 forecasting using SVR with PSOGSA algorithm based on CEEMD, GRNN and GCA considering meteorological factors

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Wei, Lin; Che, Jinxing; Shen, Xiping; Yang, Ling; Qiu, Xuanlin; Liu, Xiaoning; Gao, Wenlong; Ren, Xiaowei; Li, Juansheng

2018-06-01

The PM2.5 is the culprit of air pollution, and it leads to respiratory system disease when the fine particles are inhaled. Therefore, it is increasingly significant to develop an effective model for PM2.5 forecasting and warnings that informs people to foresee the air quality. People can reduce outdoor activities and take preventive measures if they know the air quality is bad ahead of time. In addition, reliable forecasting results can remind the relevant departments to control and reduce pollutants discharge. According to our knowledge, the current hybrid forecasting techniques of PM2.5 do not take the meteorological factors into consideration. Actually, meteorological factors affect the concentrations of air pollution, but it is unclear whether meteorological factors are helpful for improving the PM2.5 forecasting results or not. This paper proposes a hybrid model called CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR-GRNN, based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm (PSOGSA), support vector regression (SVR), generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and grey correlation analysis (GCA), for the daily PM2.5 concentrations forecasting. The main steps of proposed model are described as follows: the original PM2.5 data decomposition with CEEMD, optimal SVR selection with PSOGCA, meteorological factors selection with GCA, residual revision by GRNN and forecasting results analysis. Three cities (Chongqing, Harbin and Jinan) in China with different characteristics of climate, terrain and pollution sources are selected to verify the effectiveness of proposed model, and CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR*, EEMD-PSOGSA-SVR, PSOGSA-SVR, CEEMD-PSO-SVR, CEEMD-GSA-SVR, CEEMD-GWO-SVR are considered to be compared models. The experimental results show that the hybrid CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR-GRNN model outperforms other six compared models. Therefore, the proposed CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR-GRNN model can be used to develop air quality forecasting and

Digital algorithms to recognize shot circuits just in right time. Digitale Algorithmen zur fruehzeitigen Kurzschlusserkennung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindmayer, M.; Stege, M. (Technische Univ. Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Elektrische Energieanlagen)

1991-07-01

Algorithms for early detection and prevention of short circuits are presented. Data on current levels and steepness in the a.c. network to be protected are evaluated by microcomputers. In particular, a simplified low-voltage grid is considered whose load circuit is formed in normal conditions by a serial R-L circuit. An optimum short-circuit detection algorithm is proposed for this network, which forecasts a current value from the current and steepness signals and compares this value with a limiting value. (orig.).

Tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean: role, structure and tricks of pre-computed tsunami simulation databases and matching/forecasting algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2014-05-01

The general idea that pre-computed simulated scenario databases can play a key role in conceiving tsunami early warning systems is commonly accepted by now. But it was only in the last decade that it started to be applied to the Mediterranean region, taking special impulse from initiatives like the GDACS and from recently concluded EU-funded projects such as TRIDEC and NearToWarn. With reference to these two projects and with the possibility of further developing this research line in the frame of the FP7 ASTARTE project, we discuss some results we obtained regarding two major topics, namely the strategies applicable to the tsunami scenario database building and the design and performance assessment of a timely and "reliable" elementary-scenario combination algorithm to be run in real-time. As for the first theme, we take advantage of the experience gained in the test areas of Western Iberia, Rhodes (Greece) and Cyprus to illustrate the criteria with which a "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB) can be built. These involve 1) the choice of the main tectonic tsunamigenic sources (or areas), 2) their tessellation with matrices of elementary faults whose dimension heavily depend on the particular studied area and must be a compromise between the needs to represent the tsunamigenic area in sufficient detail and of limiting the number of scenarios to be simulated, 3) the computation of the scenarios themselves, 4) the choice of the relevant simulation outputs and the standardisation of their formats. Regarding the matching/forecast algorithm, we want it to select and combine the MSDB elements based on the initial earthquake magnitude and location estimate, and to produce a forecast of (at least) the tsunami arrival time, amplitude and period at the closest tide-level sensors and in all needed forecast points. We discuss the performance of the algorithm in terms of the time needed to produce the forecast after the earthquake is detected. In particular, we analyse the

An efficient dynamic load balancing algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Lagaros, Nikos D.

2014-01-01

In engineering problems, randomness and uncertainties are inherent. Robust design procedures, formulated in the framework of multi-objective optimization, have been proposed in order to take into account sources of randomness and uncertainty. These design procedures require orders of magnitude more computational effort than conventional analysis or optimum design processes since a very large number of finite element analyses is required to be dealt. It is therefore an imperative need to exploit the capabilities of computing resources in order to deal with this kind of problems. In particular, parallel computing can be implemented at the level of metaheuristic optimization, by exploiting the physical parallelization feature of the nondominated sorting evolution strategies method, as well as at the level of repeated structural analyses required for assessing the behavioural constraints and for calculating the objective functions. In this study an efficient dynamic load balancing algorithm for optimum exploitation of available computing resources is proposed and, without loss of generality, is applied for computing the desired Pareto front. In such problems the computation of the complete Pareto front with feasible designs only, constitutes a very challenging task. The proposed algorithm achieves linear speedup factors and almost 100% speedup factor values with reference to the sequential procedure.

Blink Number Forecasting Based on Improved Bayesian Fusion Algorithm for Fatigue Driving Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Sun

2015-01-01

Full Text Available An improved Bayesian fusion algorithm (BFA is proposed for forecasting the blink number in a continuous video. It assumes that, at one prediction interval, the blink number is correlated with the blink numbers of only a few previous intervals. With this assumption, the weights of the component predictors in the improved BFA are calculated according to their prediction performance only from a few intervals rather than from all intervals. Therefore, compared with the conventional BFA, the improved BFA is more sensitive to the disturbed condition of the component predictors for adjusting their weights more rapidly. To determine the most relevant intervals, the grey relation entropy-based analysis (GREBA method is proposed, which can be used analyze the relevancy between the historical data flows of blink number and the data flow at the current interval. Three single predictors, that is, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, radial basis function neural network (RBFNN, and Kalman filter (KF, are designed and incorporated linearly into the BFA. Experimental results demonstrate that the improved BFA obviously outperforms the conventional BFA in both accuracy and stability; also fatigue driving can be accurately warned against in advance based on the blink number forecasted by the improved BFA.

Micro-generation dispatch in a smart residential multi-carrier energy system considering demand forecast error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanjari, M.J.; Karami, H.; Gooi, H.B.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Combination of day-ahead and hour-ahead optimizations to design online controller. • Investigating the effect of load forecast error on the system operating cost. • Proposing effective method for hour-ahead resource re-dispatch. • Using the HSS algorithm as a powerful and effective optimization method. • Combining long-term and short-term strategies for optimal dispatch of resources. - Abstract: This paper deals with a residential hybrid thermal/electrical grid-connected home energy system incorporating real data for the load demand. A day-ahead scheduling (DAS) algorithm for dispatching different resources has been developed in previous studies to determine the optimal operation scheduling for the distributed energy resources at each time interval so that the operational cost of a smart house is minimized. However, demand of houses may be changed in each hour and cannot be exactly predicted one day ahead. System complexity caused by nonlinear dynamics of the fuel cell, as a combined heat and power device, and battery charging and discharging time make it difficult to find the optimal operating point of the system by using the optimization algorithms quickly in online applications. In this paper, the demand forecast error is studied and a near-optimal dispatch strategy by using artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed for the residential energy system when the demand changes are known one hour ahead with respect to the predicted day-ahead values. The day-ahead and hour-ahead optimizations are combined and ANN training inputs are adjusted according to the problem such that the economic dispatch of different energy resources can be achieved by the proposed method compared with previous studies. Using the model of the fuel cell extracted from experimental measurement and real data for the load demand makes the results more applicable in real residential energy systems.

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

Science.gov (United States)

Dee, D.

1999-01-01

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Physics Based Model for Cryogenic Chilldown and Loading. Part I: Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Brown, Barbara

2014-01-01

We report the progress in the development of the physics based model for cryogenic chilldown and loading. The chilldown and loading is model as fully separated non-equilibrium two-phase flow of cryogenic fluid thermally coupled to the pipe walls. The solution follow closely nearly-implicit and semi-implicit algorithms developed for autonomous control of thermal-hydraulic systems developed by Idaho National Laboratory. A special attention is paid to the treatment of instabilities. The model is applied to the analysis of chilldown in rapid loading system developed at NASA-Kennedy Space Center. The nontrivial characteristic feature of the analyzed chilldown regime is its active control by dump valves. The numerical predictions are in reasonable agreement with the experimental time traces. The obtained results pave the way to the development of autonomous loading operation on the ground and space.

Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

2015-10-01

The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

Forecasting monthly peak demand of electricity in India—A critique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rallapalli, Srinivasa Rao; Ghosh, Sajal

2012-01-01

The nature of electricity differs from that of other commodities since electricity is a non-storable good and there have been significant seasonal and diurnal variations of demand. Under such condition, precise forecasting of demand for electricity should be an integral part of the planning process as this enables the policy makers to provide directions on cost-effective investment and on scheduling the operation of the existing and new power plants so that the supply of electricity can be made adequate enough to meet the future demand and its variations. Official load forecasting in India done by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is often criticized for being overestimated due to inferior techniques used for forecasting. This paper tries to evaluate monthly peak demand forecasting performance predicted by CEA using trend method and compare it with those predicted by Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model. It has been found that MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts both in-sample static and out-of-sample dynamic forecast horizons in all five regional grids in India. For better load management and grid discipline, this study suggests employing sophisticated techniques like MSARIMA for peak load forecasting in India. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates monthly peak demand forecasting performance by CEA. ► Compares CEA forecasts it with those predicted by MSARIMA model. ► MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts in all five regional grids in India. ► Opportunity exists to improve the performance of CEA forecasts.

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF MORTGAGE LENDING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina V. Orlova

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers the methodological and algorithmic problems arising in modeling and forecasting of time series of mortgage loans. Focuses on the processes of formation of the levels of time series of mortgage loans and the problem of choice and identification of models in the conditions of small samples. For forecasting options are selected and implemented a model of autoregressive and moving average, which allowed to obtain reliable forecasts.

2014 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne; Obenour, Dan

2014-01-01

The Gulf of Mexico annual summer hypoxia forecasts are based on average May total nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River basin for that year. The load estimate, recently released by USGS, is 4,761 metric tons per day. Based on that estimate, we predict the area of this summer’s hypoxic zone to be 14,000 square kilometers (95% credible interval, 8,000 to 20,000) – an “average year”. Our forecast hypoxic volume is 50 km3 (95% credible interval, 20 to 77).

Performance of Estimation of distribution algorithm for initial core loading optimization of AHWR-LEU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thakur, Amit; Singh, Baltej; Gupta, Anurag; Duggal, Vibhuti; Bhatt, Kislay; Krishnani, P.D.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • EDA has been applied to optimize initial core of AHWR-LEU. • Suitable value of weighing factor ‘α’ and population size in EDA was estimated. • The effect of varying initial distribution function on optimized solution was studied. • For comparison, Genetic algorithm was also applied. - Abstract: Population based evolutionary algorithms now form an integral part of fuel management in nuclear reactors and are frequently being used for fuel loading pattern optimization (LPO) problems. In this paper we have applied Estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) to optimize initial core loading pattern (LP) of AHWR-LEU. In EDA, new solutions are generated by sampling the probability distribution model estimated from the selected best candidate solutions. The weighing factor ‘α’ decides the fraction of current best solution for updating the probability distribution function after each generation. A wider use of EDA warrants a comprehensive study on parameters like population size, weighing factor ‘α’ and initial probability distribution function. In the present study, we have done an extensive analysis on these parameters (population size, weighing factor ‘α’ and initial probability distribution function) in EDA. It is observed that choosing a very small value of ‘α’ may limit the search of optimized solutions in the near vicinity of initial probability distribution function and better loading patterns which are away from initial distribution function may not be considered with due weightage. It is also observed that increasing the population size improves the optimized loading pattern, however the algorithm still fails if the initial distribution function is not close to the expected optimized solution. We have tried to find out the suitable values for ‘α’ and population size to be considered for AHWR-LEU initial core loading pattern optimization problem. For sake of comparison and completeness, we have also addressed the

Load balancing prediction method of cloud storage based on analytic hierarchy process and hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Xiuze; Lin, Fan; Yang, Lvqing; Nie, Jing; Tan, Qian; Zeng, Wenhua; Zhang, Nian

2016-01-01

With the continuous expansion of the cloud computing platform scale and rapid growth of users and applications, how to efficiently use system resources to improve the overall performance of cloud computing has become a crucial issue. To address this issue, this paper proposes a method that uses an analytic hierarchy process group decision (AHPGD) to evaluate the load state of server nodes. Training was carried out by using a hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm (HHGA) for optimizing a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN). The AHPGD makes the aggregative indicator of virtual machines in cloud, and become input parameters of predicted RBFNN. Also, this paper proposes a new dynamic load balancing scheduling algorithm combined with a weighted round-robin algorithm, which uses the predictive periodical load value of nodes based on AHPPGD and RBFNN optimized by HHGA, then calculates the corresponding weight values of nodes and makes constant updates. Meanwhile, it keeps the advantages and avoids the shortcomings of static weighted round-robin algorithm.

A scientific forecast on dental research output within the next 20 years using exponential smoothing algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jafar Kolahi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: To report a scientific forecast of the number of published dental articles in the next 20 years. Materials and Methods: On October 12, 2016, to find all dental articles, PubMed was searched via the query “1800/1/1”[PDAT]: “2015/12/31”[PDAT] AND jsubsetd [text]. Relevant limitations were applied to find dental clinical trials, review articles, and free full-text dental articles. Consequently, all PubMed records were exported to a CSV file. To forecast the future dental research output using existing time-based data, the Exponential Triple Smoothing algorithm was used, which is an advanced machine learning algorithm. Data were analyzed by Microsoft Office Excel 2016. Results: Seventy-five (1940–2015 years of human attempts to publish dental articles were explored and 572490 records were found, from which 27244 (4.75% articles were free full-text, 19238 (3.36% were clinical trials, and 31853 (5.56% were reviews. Researchers will publish 19195 dental articles in 2036, among which 917 (4.77% articles will be clinical trials, 1474 (7.67% will be review articles, and 5482 (28.55% will be free full-text articles. Conclusion: Changes may be because of the quantity of research funds. The number of all types of dental articles will increase with an acceptable rate over the next 20 years. Of more interest, the number of free full-text articles will grow more rapidly than other article types.

Studies on load metric and communication for a load balancing algorithm in a distributed data acquisition system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, M; Kozielski, S; Sakulin, H

2011-01-01

The proposed method is designed for a data acquisition system acquiring data from n independent sources. The data sources are supposed to produce fragments that together constitute some logical wholeness. These fragments are produced with the same frequency and in the same sequence. The discussed algorithm aims to balance the data dynamically between m logically autonomous processing units (consisting of computing nodes) in case of variation in their processing power which could be caused by some faults like failing computing nodes, or broken network connections. As a case study we consider the Data Acquisition System of the Compact Muon Solenoid Experiment at CERN's new Large Hadron Collider. The system acquires data from about 500 sources and combines them into full events. Each data source is expected to deliver event fragments of an average size of 2 kB with 100 kHz frequency. In this paper we present the results of applying proposed load metric and load communication pattern. Moreover, we discuss their impact on the algorithm's overall efficiency and scalability, as well as on fault tolerance of the whole system. We also propose a general concept of an algorithm that allows for choosing the destination processing unit in all source nodes asynchronously and asserts that all fragments of same logical data always go to same unit.

Optimization of seasonal ARIMA models using differential evolution - simulated annealing (DESA) algorithm in forecasting dengue cases in Baguio City

Science.gov (United States)

Addawe, Rizavel C.; Addawe, Joel M.; Magadia, Joselito C.

2016-10-01

Accurate forecasting of dengue cases would significantly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This paper attempts to provide useful models in forecasting dengue epidemic specific to the young and adult population of Baguio City. To capture the seasonal variations in dengue incidence, this paper develops a robust modeling approach to identify and estimate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models in the presence of additive outliers. Since the least squares estimators are not robust in the presence of outliers, we suggest a robust estimation based on winsorized and reweighted least squares estimators. A hybrid algorithm, Differential Evolution - Simulated Annealing (DESA), is used to identify and estimate the parameters of the optimal SARIMA model. The method is applied to the monthly reported dengue cases in Baguio City, Philippines.

An Efficient Meta Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Economic Load Dispatch Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R Subramanian

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The Economic Load Dispatch (ELD problems in power generation systems are to reduce the fuel cost by reducing the total cost for the generation of electric power. This paper presents an efficient Modified Firefly Algorithm (MFA, for solving ELD Problem. The main objective of the problems is to minimize the total fuel cost of the generating units having quadratic cost functions subjected to limits on generator true power output and transmission losses. The MFA is a stochastic, Meta heuristic approach based on the idealized behaviour of the flashing characteristics of fireflies. This paper presents an application of MFA to ELD for six generator test case system. MFA is applied to ELD problem and compared its solution quality and computation efficiency to Genetic algorithm (GA, Differential Evolution (DE, Particle swarm optimization (PSO, Artificial Bee Colony optimization (ABC, Biogeography-Based Optimization (BBO, Bacterial Foraging optimization (BFO, Firefly Algorithm (FA techniques. The simulation result shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms previous optimization methods.

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

Comparison of genetic algorithm and imperialist competitive algorithms in predicting bed load transport in clean pipe.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein

2014-01-01

The existence of sediments in wastewater greatly affects the performance of the sewer and wastewater transmission systems. Increased sedimentation in wastewater collection systems causes problems such as reduced transmission capacity and early combined sewer overflow. The article reviews the performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) in minimizing the target function (mean square error of observed and predicted Froude number). To study the impact of bed load transport parameters, using four non-dimensional groups, six different models have been presented. Moreover, the roulette wheel selection method is used to select the parents. The ICA with root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.007, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 3.5% show better results than GA (RMSE = 0.007, MAPE = 5.6%) for the selected model. All six models return better results than the GA. Also, the results of these two algorithms were compared with multi-layer perceptron and existing equations.

A Functional-genetic Scheme for Seizure Forecasting in Canine Epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bou Assi, E; Nguyen, D K; Rihana, S; Sawan, M

2017-09-13

The objective of this work is the development of an accurate seizure forecasting algorithm that considers brain's functional connectivity for electrode selection. We start by proposing Kmeans-directed transfer function, an adaptive functional connectivity method intended for seizure onset zone localization in bilateral intracranial EEG recordings. Electrodes identified as seizure activity sources and sinks are then used to implement a seizure-forecasting algorithm on long-term continuous recordings in dogs with naturallyoccurring epilepsy. A precision-recall genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection in line with a probabilistic support vector machine classifier. Epileptic activity generators were focal in all dogs confirming the diagnosis of focal epilepsy in these animals while sinks spanned both hemispheres in 2 of 3 dogs. Seizure forecasting results show performance improvement compared to previous studies, achieving average sensitivity of 84.82% and time in warning of 0.1. Achieved performances highlight the feasibility of seizure forecasting in canine epilepsy. The ability to improve seizure forecasting provides promise for the development of EEGtriggered closed-loop seizure intervention systems for ambulatory implantation in patients with refractory epilepsy.

A Fast EEG Forecasting Algorithm for Phase-Locked Transcranial Electrical Stimulation of the Human Brain

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Farrokh Mansouri

2017-07-01

Full Text Available A growing body of research suggests that non-invasive electrical brain stimulation can more effectively modulate neural activity when phase-locked to the underlying brain rhythms. Transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS can potentially stimulate the brain in-phase to its natural oscillations as recorded by electroencephalography (EEG, but matching these oscillations is a challenging problem due to the complex and time-varying nature of the EEG signals. Here we address this challenge by developing and testing a novel approach intended to deliver tACS phase-locked to the activity of the underlying brain region in real-time. This novel approach extracts phase and frequency from a segment of EEG, then forecasts the signal to control the stimulation. A careful tuning of the EEG segment length and prediction horizon is required and has been investigated here for different EEG frequency bands. The algorithm was tested on EEG data from 5 healthy volunteers. Algorithm performance was quantified in terms of phase-locking values across a variety of EEG frequency bands. Phase-locking performance was found to be consistent across individuals and recording locations. With current parameters, the algorithm performs best when tracking oscillations in the alpha band (8–13 Hz, with a phase-locking value of 0.77 ± 0.08. Performance was maximized when the frequency band of interest had a dominant frequency that was stable over time. The algorithm performs faster, and provides better phase-locked stimulation, compared to other recently published algorithms devised for this purpose. The algorithm is suitable for use in future studies of phase-locked tACS in preclinical and clinical applications.

Dynamic load balance scheme for the DSMC algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jin; Geng, Xiangren; Jiang, Dingwu; Chen, Jianqiang

2014-01-01

The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) algorithm, devised by Bird, has been used over a wide range of various rarified flow problems in the past 40 years. While the DSMC is suitable for the parallel implementation on powerful multi-processor architecture, it also introduces a large load imbalance across the processor array, even for small examples. The load imposed on a processor by a DSMC calculation is determined to a large extent by the total of simulator particles upon it. Since most flows are impulsively started with initial distribution of particles which is surely quite different from the steady state, the total of simulator particles will change dramatically. The load balance based upon an initial distribution of particles will break down as the steady state of flow is reached. The load imbalance and huge computational cost of DSMC has limited its application to rarefied or simple transitional flows. In this paper, by taking advantage of METIS, a software for partitioning unstructured graphs, and taking the total of simulator particles in each cell as a weight information, the repartitioning based upon the principle that each processor handles approximately the equal total of simulator particles has been achieved. The computation must pause several times to renew the total of simulator particles in each processor and repartition the whole domain again. Thus the load balance across the processors array holds in the duration of computation. The parallel efficiency can be improved effectively. The benchmark solution of a cylinder submerged in hypersonic flow has been simulated numerically. Besides, hypersonic flow past around a complex wing-body configuration has also been simulated. The results have displayed that, for both of cases, the computational time can be reduced by about 50%

Geomagnetic Dst index forecast based on IMF data only

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G. Pallocchia

2006-05-01

Full Text Available In the past years several operational Dst forecasting algorithms, based on both IMF and solar wind plasma parameters, have been developed and used. We describe an Artificial Neural Network (ANN algorithm which calculates the Dst index on the basis of IMF data only and discuss its performance for several individual storms. Moreover, we briefly comment on the physical grounds which allow the Dst forecasting based on IMF only.

Particle Swarm Optimization-based BP Neural Network for UHV DC Insulator Pollution Forecasting

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Fangcheng Lü

2014-02-01

Full Text Available In order to realize the forecasting of the UHV DC insulator's pollution conditions, we introduced a PSOBP algorithm. A BP neural network (BPNN with leakage current, temperature, relative humidity and dew point as input neurons, and ESDD as output neuron was built to forecast the ESDD. The PSO was used to optimize the the BPNN, which had great improved the convergence rate of the BP neural network. The dew point as a brand new input unit has improved the iteration speed of the PSOBP algorithm in this study. It was the first time that the PSOBP algorithm was applied to the UHV DC insulator pollution forecasting. The experiment results showed that the method had great advantages in accuracy and speed of convergence. The research showed that this algorithm was suitable for the UHV DC insulator pollution forecasting.

Demand forecasting: methodology used to electric power consumers for irrigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gangi, R.D.; Atmann, J.L.

1989-01-01

The utilization of load curves on the evaluation of systems behaviour, consumers and in the owners and users brought a new subsidy for the performance of forecast techniques. This paper shows how we can use these forecasting techniques and load curves in a specify situation joined to Guaira Substation, where the predominance is rural consumers with large activities in irrigation. The main objective of this study is bring by load curve modulation and the expansion of consumer market, a optimized view of load for the future years. (C.G.C.)

Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting

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Bijay Neupane

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.

Day ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a mixed data model and hybrid forecast method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

2008-01-01

In a competitive electricity market, forecast of energy prices is a key information for the market participants. However, price signal usually has a complex behavior due to its nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In spite of all performed researches on this area in the recent years, there is still an essential need for more accurate and robust price forecast methods. In this paper, a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and a hybrid forecast method is proposed for this purpose. The hybrid method is composed of cascaded forecasters where each forecaster consists of a neural network (NN) and an evolutionary algorithms (EA). Both time domain and wavelet domain features are considered in a mixed data model for price forecast, in which the candidate input variables are refined by a feature selection technique. The adjustable parameters of the whole method are fine-tuned by a cross-validation technique. The proposed method is examined on PJM electricity market and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. (author)

2013 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne; Obenour, Dan

2013-01-01

The Gulf of Mexico annual summer hypoxia forecasts are based on average May total nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River basin for that year. The load estimate, recently released by USGS, is 7,316 metric tons per day. Based on that estimate, we predict the area of this summer’s hypoxic zone to be 18,900 square kilometers (95% credible interval, 13,400 to 24,200), the 7th largest reported and about the size of New Jersey. Our forecast hypoxic volume is 74.5 km3 (95% credible interval, 51.5 to 97.0), also the 7th largest on record.

Development of a BWR loading pattern design system based on modified genetic algorithms and knowledge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin-del-Campo, Cecilia; Francois, Juan Luis; Avendano, Linda; Gonzalez, Mario

2004-01-01

An optimization system based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs), in combination with expert knowledge coded in heuristics rules, was developed for the design of optimized boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel loading patterns. The system was coded in a computer program named Loading Pattern Optimization System based on Genetic Algorithms, in which the optimization code uses GAs to select candidate solutions, and the core simulator code CM-PRESTO to evaluate them. A multi-objective function was built to maximize the cycle energy length while satisfying power and reactivity constraints used as BWR design parameters. Heuristic rules were applied to satisfy standard fuel management recommendations as the Control Cell Core and Low Leakage loading strategies, and octant symmetry. To test the system performance, an optimized cycle was designed and compared against an actual operating cycle of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant, Unit I

Production data from five major geothermal fields in Nevada analysed using a physiostatistical algorithm developed for oil and gas: temperature decline forecasts and type curves

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzma, H. A.; Golubkova, A.; Eklund, C.

2015-12-01

Nevada has the second largest output of geothermal energy in the United States (after California) with 14 major power plants producing over 425 megawatts of electricity meeting 7% of the state's total energy needs. A number of wells, particularly older ones, have shown significant temperature and pressure declines over their lifetimes, adversely affecting economic returns. Production declines are almost universal in the oil and gas (O&G) industry. BetaZi (BZ) is a proprietary algorithm which uses a physiostatistical model to forecast production from the past history of O&G wells and to generate "type curves" which are used to estimate the production of undrilled wells. Although BZ was designed and calibrated for O&G, it is a general purpose diffusion equation solver, capable of modeling complex fluid dynamics in multi-phase systems. In this pilot study, it is applied directly to the temperature data from five Nevada geothermal fields. With the data appropriately normalized, BZ is shown to accurately predict temperature declines. The figure shows several examples of BZ forecasts using historic data from Steamboat Hills field near Reno. BZ forecasts were made using temperature on a normalized scale (blue) with two years of data held out for blind testing (yellow). The forecast is returned in terms of percentiles of probability (red) with the median forecast marked (solid green). Actual production is expected to fall within the majority of the red bounds 80% of the time. Blind tests such as these are used to verify that the probabilistic forecast can be trusted. BZ is also used to compute and accurate type temperature profile for wells that have yet to be drilled. These forecasts can be combined with estimated costs to evaluate the economics and risks of a project or potential capital investment. It is remarkable that an algorithm developed for oil and gas can accurately predict temperature in geothermal wells without significant recasting.

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Data Processing Approach and the Support Vector Machine Model Optimized by the Improved Cuckoo Search Parameter Estimation Algorithm

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Chen Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Power systems could be at risk when the power-grid collapse accident occurs. As a clean and renewable resource, wind energy plays an increasingly vital role in reducing air pollution and wind power generation becomes an important way to produce electrical power. Therefore, accurate wind power and wind speed forecasting are in need. In this research, a novel short-term wind speed forecasting portfolio has been proposed using the following three procedures: (I data preprocessing: apart from the regular normalization preprocessing, the data are preprocessed through empirical model decomposition (EMD, which reduces the effect of noise on the wind speed data; (II artificially intelligent parameter optimization introduction: the unknown parameters in the support vector machine (SVM model are optimized by the cuckoo search (CS algorithm; (III parameter optimization approach modification: an improved parameter optimization approach, called the SDCS model, based on the CS algorithm and the steepest descent (SD method is proposed. The comparison results show that the simple and effective portfolio EMD-SDCS-SVM produces promising predictions and has better performance than the individual forecasting components, with very small root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors.

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

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Xuejun Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

New Aspects of Probabilistic Forecast Verification Using Information Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Tödter, Julian; Ahrens, Bodo

2013-04-01

This work deals with information-theoretical methods in probabilistic forecast verification, particularly concerning ensemble forecasts. Recent findings concerning the "Ignorance Score" are shortly reviewed, then a consistent generalization to continuous forecasts is motivated. For ensemble-generated forecasts, the presented measures can be calculated exactly. The Brier Score (BS) and its generalizations to the multi-categorical Ranked Probability Score (RPS) and to the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are prominent verification measures for probabilistic forecasts. Particularly, their decompositions into measures quantifying the reliability, resolution and uncertainty of the forecasts are attractive. Information theory sets up a natural framework for forecast verification. Recently, it has been shown that the BS is a second-order approximation of the information-based Ignorance Score (IGN), which also contains easily interpretable components and can also be generalized to a ranked version (RIGN). Here, the IGN, its generalizations and decompositions are systematically discussed in analogy to the variants of the BS. Additionally, a Continuous Ranked IGN (CRIGN) is introduced in analogy to the CRPS. The useful properties of the conceptually appealing CRIGN are illustrated, together with an algorithm to evaluate its components reliability, resolution, and uncertainty for ensemble-generated forecasts. This algorithm can also be used to calculate the decomposition of the more traditional CRPS exactly. The applicability of the "new" measures is demonstrated in a small evaluation study of ensemble-based precipitation forecasts.

Solar Resource Assessment with Sky Imagery and a Virtual Testbed for Sky Imager Solar Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtz, Benjamin Bernard

In recent years, ground-based sky imagers have emerged as a promising tool for forecasting solar energy on short time scales (0 to 30 minutes ahead). Following the development of sky imager hardware and algorithms at UC San Diego, we present three new or improved algorithms for sky imager forecasting and forecast evaluation. First, we present an algorithm for measuring irradiance with a sky imager. Sky imager forecasts are often used in conjunction with other instruments for measuring irradiance, so this has the potential to decrease instrumentation costs and logistical complexity. In particular, the forecast algorithm itself often relies on knowledge of the current irradiance which can now be provided directly from the sky images. Irradiance measurements are accurate to within about 10%. Second, we demonstrate a virtual sky imager testbed that can be used for validating and enhancing the forecast algorithm. The testbed uses high-quality (but slow) simulations to produce virtual clouds and sky images. Because virtual cloud locations are known, much more advanced validation procedures are possible with the virtual testbed than with measured data. In this way, we are able to determine that camera geometry and non-uniform evolution of the cloud field are the two largest sources of forecast error. Finally, with the assistance of the virtual sky imager testbed, we develop improvements to the cloud advection model used for forecasting. The new advection schemes are 10-20% better at short time horizons.

Dynamic load balancing algorithm for molecular dynamics based on Voronoi cells domain decompositions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fattebert, J.-L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Richards, D.F. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Glosli, J.N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2012-12-01

We present a new algorithm for automatic parallel load balancing in classical molecular dynamics. It assumes a spatial domain decomposition of particles into Voronoi cells. It is a gradient method which attempts to minimize a cost function by displacing Voronoi sites associated with each processor/sub-domain along steepest descent directions. Excellent load balance has been obtained for quasi-2D and 3D practical applications, with up to 440·10⁶ particles on 65,536 MPI tasks.

Forecasting of Energy Consumption in China Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Improved Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuyu Dai

2018-04-01

Full Text Available For social development, energy is a crucial material whose consumption affects the stable and sustained development of the natural environment and economy. Currently, China has become the largest energy consumer in the world. Therefore, establishing an appropriate energy consumption prediction model and accurately forecasting energy consumption in China have practical significance, and can provide a scientific basis for China to formulate a reasonable energy production plan and energy-saving and emissions-reduction-related policies to boost sustainable development. For forecasting the energy consumption in China accurately, considering the main driving factors of energy consumption, a novel model, EEMD-ISFLA-LSSVM (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Improved Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm, is proposed in this article. The prediction accuracy of energy consumption is influenced by various factors. In this article, first considering population, GDP (Gross Domestic Product, industrial structure (the proportion of the second industry added value, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, carbon emissions intensity, total imports and exports and other influencing factors of energy consumption, the main driving factors of energy consumption are screened as the model input according to the sorting of grey relational degrees to realize feature dimension reduction. Then, the original energy consumption sequence of China is decomposed into multiple subsequences by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition for de-noising. Next, the ISFLA-LSSVM (Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Improved Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm model is adopted to forecast each subsequence, and the prediction sequences are reconstructed to obtain the forecasting result. After that, the data from 1990 to 2009 are taken as the training set, and the data from 2010 to 2016 are taken as the test set to make an

Modified Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Majidpour, Mostafa; Qiu, Charlie; Chu, Peter; Gadh, Rajit; Pota, Hemanshu R.

2014-11-03

Three algorithms for the forecasting of energy consumption at individual EV charging outlets have been applied to real world data from the UCLA campus. Out of these three algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), ARIMA, and Pattern Sequence Forecasting (PSF), kNN with k=1, was the best and PSF was the worst performing algorithm with respect to the SMAPE measure. The advantage of PSF is its increased robustness to noise by substituting the real valued time series with an integer valued one, and the advantage of NN is having the least SMAPE for our data. We propose a Modified PSF algorithm (MPSF) which is a combination of PSF and NN; it could be interpreted as NN on integer valued data or as PSF with considering only the most recent neighbor to produce the output. Some other shortcomings of PSF are also addressed in the MPSF. Results show that MPSF has improved the forecast performance.

Genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks for loading pattern optimisation of advanced gas-cooled reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ziver, A.K. E-mail: a.k.ziver@imperial.ac.uk; Pain, C.C; Carter, J.N.; Oliveira, C.R.E. de; Goddard, A.J.H.; Overton, R.S

2004-03-01

A non-generational genetic algorithm (GA) has been developed for fuel management optimisation of Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactors, which are operated by British Energy and produce around 20% of the UK's electricity requirements. An evolutionary search is coded using the genetic operators; namely selection by tournament, two-point crossover, mutation and random assessment of population for multi-cycle loading pattern (LP) optimisation. A detailed description of the chromosomes in the genetic algorithm coded is presented. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been constructed and trained to accelerate the GA-based search during the optimisation process. The whole package, called GAOPT, is linked to the reactor analysis code PANTHER, which performs fresh fuel loading, burn-up and power shaping calculations for each reactor cycle by imposing station-specific safety and operational constraints. GAOPT has been verified by performing a number of tests, which are applied to the Hinkley Point B and Hartlepool reactors. The test results giving loading pattern (LP) scenarios obtained from single and multi-cycle optimisation calculations applied to realistic reactor states of the Hartlepool and Hinkley Point B reactors are discussed. The results have shown that the GA/ANN algorithms developed can help the fuel engineer to optimise loading patterns in an efficient and more profitable way than currently available for multi-cycle refuelling of AGRs. Research leading to parallel GAs applied to LP optimisation are outlined, which can be adapted to present day LWR fuel management problems.

A Web-Based Tool to Interpolate Nitrogen Loading Using a Genetic Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youn Shik Park

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Water quality data may not be collected at a high frequency, nor over the range of streamflow data. For instance, water quality data are often collected monthly, biweekly, or weekly, since collecting and analyzing water quality samples are costly compared to streamflow data. Regression models are often used to interpolate pollutant loads from measurements made intermittently. Web-based Load Interpolation Tool (LOADIN was developed to provide user-friendly interfaces and to allow use of streamflow and water quality data from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS via web access. LOADIN has a regression model assuming that instantaneous load is comprised of the pollutant load based on streamflow and the pollutant load variation within the period. The regression model has eight coefficients determined by a genetic algorithm with measured water quality data. LOADIN was applied to eleven water quality datasets from USGS gage stations located in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin states with drainage areas from 44 km2 to 1,847,170 km2. Measured loads were calculated by multiplying nitrogen data by streamflow data associated with measured nitrogen data. The estimated nitrogen loads and measured loads were evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and coefficient of determination (R2. NSE ranged from 0.45 to 0.91, and R2 ranged from 0.51 to 0.91 for nitrogen load estimation.

A data-driven multi-model methodology with deep feature selection for short-term wind forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Cong; Cui, Mingjian; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Zhang, Jie

2017-01-01

Highlights: • An ensemble model is developed to produce both deterministic and probabilistic wind forecasts. • A deep feature selection framework is developed to optimally determine the inputs to the forecasting methodology. • The developed ensemble methodology has improved the forecasting accuracy by up to 30%. - Abstract: With the growing wind penetration into the power system worldwide, improving wind power forecasting accuracy is becoming increasingly important to ensure continued economic and reliable power system operations. In this paper, a data-driven multi-model wind forecasting methodology is developed with a two-layer ensemble machine learning technique. The first layer is composed of multiple machine learning models that generate individual forecasts. A deep feature selection framework is developed to determine the most suitable inputs to the first layer machine learning models. Then, a blending algorithm is applied in the second layer to create an ensemble of the forecasts produced by first layer models and generate both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. This two-layer model seeks to utilize the statistically different characteristics of each machine learning algorithm. A number of machine learning algorithms are selected and compared in both layers. This developed multi-model wind forecasting methodology is compared to several benchmarks. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is evaluated to provide 1-hour-ahead wind speed forecasting at seven locations of the Surface Radiation network. Numerical results show that comparing to the single-algorithm models, the developed multi-model framework with deep feature selection procedure has improved the forecasting accuracy by up to 30%.

An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Whei-Min; Gow, Hong-Jey; Tsai, Ming-Tang

2010-01-01

This paper proposed a price forecasting system for electric market participants to reduce the risk of price volatility. Combining the Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED), an Enhanced Radial Basis Function Network (ERBFN) has been proposed for the solving process. The Locational Marginal Price (LMP), system load, transmission flow and temperature of the PJM system were collected and the data clusters were embedded in the Excel Database according to the year, season, workday and weekend. With the OED applied to learning rates in the ERBFN, the forecasting error can be reduced during the training process to improve both accuracy and reliability. This would mean that even the ''spikes'' could be tracked closely. The Back-propagation Neural Network (BPN), Probability Neural Network (PNN), other algorithms, and the proposed ERBFN were all developed and compared to check the performance. Simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed ERBFN to provide quality information in a price volatile environment. (author)

A stochastic post-processing method for solar irradiance forecasts derived from NWPs models

Science.gov (United States)

Lara-Fanego, V.; Pozo-Vazquez, D.; Ruiz-Arias, J. A.; Santos-Alamillos, F. J.; Tovar-Pescador, J.

2010-09-01

Solar irradiance forecast is an important area of research for the future of the solar-based renewable energy systems. Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWPs) have proved to be a valuable tool for solar irradiance forecasting with lead time up to a few days. Nevertheless, these models show low skill in forecasting the solar irradiance under cloudy conditions. Additionally, climatic (averaged over seasons) aerosol loading are usually considered in these models, leading to considerable errors for the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) forecasts during high aerosols load conditions. In this work we propose a post-processing method for the Global Irradiance (GHI) and DNI forecasts derived from NWPs. Particularly, the methods is based on the use of Autoregressive Moving Average with External Explanatory Variables (ARMAX) stochastic models. These models are applied to the residuals of the NWPs forecasts and uses as external variables the measured cloud fraction and aerosol loading of the day previous to the forecast. The method is evaluated for a set one-moth length three-days-ahead forecast of the GHI and DNI, obtained based on the WRF mesoscale atmospheric model, for several locations in Andalusia (Southern Spain). The Cloud fraction is derived from MSG satellite estimates and the aerosol loading from the MODIS platform estimates. Both sources of information are readily available at the time of the forecast. Results showed a considerable improvement of the forecasting skill of the WRF model using the proposed post-processing method. Particularly, relative improvement (in terms of the RMSE) for the DNI during summer is about 20%. A similar value is obtained for the GHI during the winter.

Application of ELD and load forecast in optimal operation of industrial boiler plants equipped with thermal stores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Jiacong

2007-01-01

Optimal operation of industrial boiler plants with objects of high energy efficiency and low fuel cost is still well worth investigating when energy problem becomes a world's concern, for there are a great number of boiler plants serving industries. The optimization of operation is a measure that is less expensive and easier to carry out than many other measures. Economic load dispatch (ELD) is an effective approach to optimal operation of industrial boiler plants. In the paper a newly developed method referred to as the method of minimum-departure model (MDM) is used in the ELD for boiler plants. It is more convenient for carrying out ELD when boiler plants are equipped with thermal energy stores that usually adopt the working mode of optimal segmentation of a daily load curve. In the case of industrial boiler plants, ELD needs a prerequisite, viz., the accurate load forecast, which is performed using artificial neural networks in this paper. A computer program for the optimal operation was completed and applied to an example, which results the minimum daily fuel cost of the whole boiler plant

Using forecast information for storm ride-through control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barahona Garzón, Braulio; Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Vincent, Claire Louise

2013-01-01

Using probabilistic forecast information in control algorithms can improve the performance of wind farms during periods of extreme winds. This work presents a wind farm supervisor control concept that uses probabilistic forecast information to ride-through a storm with softer ramps of power. Wind...... speed forecasts are generated with a statistical approach (i.e. time series models). The supervisor control is based on a set of logical rules that consider point forecasts and predictive densities to ramp-down the power of the wind farm before the storm hits. The potential of this supervisor control...

Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

, merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

Automatic boiling water reactor loading pattern design using ant colony optimization algorithm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, C.-D. [Department of Engineering and System Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101, Section 2 Kuang Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Nuclear Engineering Division, Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, No. 1000, Wenhua Rd., Jiaan Village, Longtan Township, Taoyuan County 32546, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: jdwang@iner.gov.tw; Lin Chaung [Department of Engineering and System Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101, Section 2 Kuang Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China)

2009-08-15

An automatic boiling water reactor (BWR) loading pattern (LP) design methodology was developed using the rank-based ant system (RAS), which is a variant of the ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm. To reduce design complexity, only the fuel assemblies (FAs) of one eight-core positions were determined using the RAS algorithm, and then the corresponding FAs were loaded into the other parts of the core. Heuristic information was adopted to exclude the selection of the inappropriate FAs which will reduce search space, and thus, the computation time. When the LP was determined, Haling cycle length, beginning of cycle (BOC) shutdown margin (SDM), and Haling end of cycle (EOC) maximum fraction of limit for critical power ratio (MFLCPR) were calculated using SIMULATE-3 code, which were used to evaluate the LP for updating pheromone of RAS. The developed design methodology was demonstrated using FAs of a reference cycle of the BWR6 nuclear power plant. The results show that, the designed LP can be obtained within reasonable computation time, and has a longer cycle length than that of the original design.

Mobility-Aware and Load Balancing Based Clustering Algorithm for Energy Conservation in MANET

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XU Li; ZHENG Bao-yu; GUO Gong-de

2005-01-01

Mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is one of wireless communication network architecture that has received a lot of attention. MANET is characterized by dynamic network topology and limited energy. With mobility-aware and load balancing based clustering algorithm (MLCA), this paper proposes a new topology management strategy to conserve energy. Performance simulation results show that the proposed MLCA strategy can balances the traffic load inside the whole network, so as to prolong the network lifetime, meanly, at the same time, achieve higher throughput ratio and network stability.

Sales Growth Rate Forecasting Using Improved PSO and SVM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xibin Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate forecast of the sales growth rate plays a decisive role in determining the amount of advertising investment. In this study, we present a preclassification and later regression based method optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO for sales growth rate forecasting. We use support vector machine (SVM as a classification model. The nonlinear relationship in sales growth rate forecasting is efficiently represented by SVM, while IPSO is optimizing the training parameters of SVM. IPSO addresses issues of traditional PSO, such as relapsing into local optimum, slow convergence speed, and low convergence precision in the later evolution. We performed two experiments; firstly, three classic benchmark functions are used to verify the validity of the IPSO algorithm against PSO. Having shown IPSO outperform PSO in convergence speed, precision, and escaping local optima, in our second experiment, we apply IPSO to the proposed model. The sales growth rate forecasting cases are used to testify the forecasting performance of proposed model. According to the requirements and industry knowledge, the sample data was first classified to obtain types of the test samples. Next, the values of the test samples were forecast using the SVM regression algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model has good forecasting performance.

A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the ε-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jianzhou; Zhu Wenjin; Zhang Wenyu; Sun Donghuai

2009-01-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined ε-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the ε-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the epsilon-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Jianzhou [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhu Wenjin, E-mail: crying.1@hotmail.co [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

2009-11-15

Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined epsilon-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the epsilon-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the {epsilon}-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jianzhou; Zhu, Wenjin [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang, Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun, Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

2009-11-15

Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined {epsilon}-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the {epsilon}-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved. (author)

A Machine LearningFramework to Forecast Wave Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.; O'Donncha, F.

2017-12-01

Recently, significant effort has been undertaken to quantify and extract wave energy because it is renewable, environmental friendly, abundant, and often close to population centers. However, a major challenge is the ability to accurately and quickly predict energy production, especially across a 48-hour cycle. Accurate forecasting of wave conditions is a challenging undertaking that typically involves solving the spectral action-balance equation on a discretized grid with high spatial resolution. The nature of the computations typically demands high-performance computing infrastructure. Using a case-study site at Monterey Bay, California, a machine learning framework was trained to replicate numerically simulated wave conditions at a fraction of the typical computational cost. Specifically, the physics-based Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, driven by measured wave conditions, nowcast ocean currents, and wind data, was used to generate training data for machine learning algorithms. The model was run between April 1st, 2013 and May 31st, 2017 generating forecasts at three-hour intervals yielding 11,078 distinct model outputs. SWAN-generated fields of 3,104 wave heights and a characteristic period could be replicated through simple matrix multiplications using the mapping matrices from machine learning algorithms. In fact, wave-height RMSEs from the machine learning algorithms (9 cm) were less than those for the SWAN model-verification exercise where those simulations were compared to buoy wave data within the model domain (>40 cm). The validated machine learning approach, which acts as an accurate surrogate for the SWAN model, can now be used to perform real-time forecasts of wave conditions for the next 48 hours using available forecasted boundary wave conditions, ocean currents, and winds. This solution has obvious applications to wave-energy generation as accurate wave conditions can be forecasted with over a three-order-of-magnitude reduction in

Day ahead forecast of wind power through optimal application of multivariate analyzing methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnoldt, Alexander; Bretschneider, Peter [Fraunhofer Institute for Optronics, System Technology, and Image Exploitation - Application Centre System Technology (IOSB-AST), Ilmenau (Germany). Energy Systems Group

2011-07-01

This paper presents two algorithms in identifying input models for artificial neural networks. The algorithms are based on an entropy analysis and an eigenvalue analysis of the correlation matrix. The resulting input models are used for investigating a feed forward and a recurrent artificial neural network structure to simulate a 24 hour forecast of wind power production. The limitation of the forecast error distribution is investigated through successful implementation of hybridization of single forecast models. Errors of the best forecast model stay between a normalized root mean square error from 3.5% to 6.1%. (orig.)

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1993-12-01

The Loads and Resources Study is presented in three documents: (1) this summary of Federal system and Pacific Northwest region loads and resources; (2) a technical appendix detailing forecasted Pacific Northwest economic trends and loads, and (3) a technical appendix detailing the loads and resources for each major Pacific Northwest generating utility. In this loads and resources study, resource availability is compared with a range of forecasted electricity consumption. The forecasted future electricity demands -- firm loads -- are subtracted from the projected capability of existing and {open_quotes}contracted for{close_quotes} resources to determine whether Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the region will be surplus or deficit. If resources are greater than loads in any particular year or month, there is a surplus of energy and/or capacity, which BPA can sell to increase revenues. Conversely, if firm loads exceed available resources, there is a deficit of energy and/or capacity, and additional conservation, contract purchases, or generating resources will be needed to meet load growth. The Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study analyzes the Pacific Northwest`s projected loads and available generating resources in two parts: (1) the loads and resources of the Federal system, for which BPA is the marketing agency; and (2) the larger Pacific Northwest regional power system, which includes loads and resource in addition to the Federal system. The loads and resources analysis in this study simulates the operation of the power system under the Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA) produced by the Pacific Northwest Coordinating Group. This study presents the Federal system and regional analyses for five load forecasts: high, medium-high, medium, medium-low, and low. This analysis projects the yearly average energy consumption and resource availability for Operating Years (OY) 1994--95 through 2003--04.

Forecasting hourly global solar radiation using hybrid k-means and nonlinear autoregressive neural network models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benmouiza, Khalil; Cheknane, Ali

2013-01-01

Highlights: • An unsupervised clustering algorithm with a neural network model was explored. • The forecasting results of solar radiation time series and the comparison of their performance was simulated. • A new method was proposed combining k-means algorithm and NAR network to provide better prediction results. - Abstract: In this paper, we review our work for forecasting hourly global horizontal solar radiation based on the combination of unsupervised k-means clustering algorithm and artificial neural networks (ANN). k-Means algorithm focused on extracting useful information from the data with the aim of modeling the time series behavior and find patterns of the input space by clustering the data. On the other hand, nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural networks are powerful computational models for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series. Taking the advantage of both methods, a new method was proposed combining k-means algorithm and NAR network to provide better forecasting results

Variable Selection in Time Series Forecasting Using Random Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hristos Tyralis

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms has gained popularity recently. Random forest is a machine learning algorithm implemented in time series forecasting; however, most of its forecasting properties have remained unexplored. Here we focus on assessing the performance of random forests in one-step forecasting using two large datasets of short time series with the aim to suggest an optimal set of predictor variables. Furthermore, we compare its performance to benchmarking methods. The first dataset is composed by 16,000 simulated time series from a variety of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA models. The second dataset consists of 135 mean annual temperature time series. The highest predictive performance of RF is observed when using a low number of recent lagged predictor variables. This outcome could be useful in relevant future applications, with the prospect to achieve higher predictive accuracy.

Parameter estimation using the genetic algorithm and its impact on quantitative precipitation forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. H. Lee

2006-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, optimal parameter estimations are performed for both physical and computational parameters in a mesoscale meteorological model, and their impacts on the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF are assessed for a heavy rainfall case occurred at the Korean Peninsula in June 2005. Experiments are carried out using the PSU/NCAR MM5 model and the genetic algorithm (GA for two parameters: the reduction rate of the convective available potential energy in the Kain-Fritsch (KF scheme for cumulus parameterization, and the Asselin filter parameter for numerical stability. The fitness function is defined based on a QPF skill score. It turns out that each optimized parameter significantly improves the QPF skill. Such improvement is maximized when the two optimized parameters are used simultaneously. Our results indicate that optimizations of computational parameters as well as physical parameters and their adequate applications are essential in improving model performance.

A New Approach of Parallelism and Load Balance for the Apriori Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BOLINA, A. C.

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The main goal of data mining is to discover relevant information on digital content. The Apriori algorithm is widely used to this objective, but its sequential version has a low performance when execu- ted over large volumes of data. Among the solutions for this problem is the parallel implementation of the algorithm, and among the parallel implementations presented in the literature that based on Apriori, it highlights the DPA (Distributed Parallel Apriori [10]. This paper presents the DMTA (Distributed Multithread Apriori algorithm, which is based on DPA and exploits the parallelism level of threads in order to increase the performance. Besides, DMTA can be executed over heterogeneous hardware platform, using different number of cores. The results showed that DMTA outperforms DPA, presents load balance among processes and threads, and it is effective in current multicore architectures.

Forecasting the Stock Market with Linguistic Rules Generated from the Minimize Entropy Principle and the Cumulative Probability Distribution Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung-Ho Su

2010-12-01

Full Text Available To forecast a complex and non-linear system, such as a stock market, advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, like neural networks (NNs and genetic algorithms (GAs have been proposed as new approaches. However, for the average stock investor, two major disadvantages are argued against these advanced algorithms: (1 the rules generated by NNs and GAs are difficult to apply in investment decisions; and (2 the time complexity of the algorithms to produce forecasting outcomes is very high. Therefore, to provide understandable rules for investors and to reduce the time complexity of forecasting algorithms, this paper proposes a novel model for the forecasting process, which combines two granulating methods (the minimize entropy principle approach and the cumulative probability distribution approach and a rough set algorithm. The model verification demonstrates that the proposed model surpasses the three listed conventional fuzzy time-series models and a multiple regression model (MLR in forecast accuracy.

Modification of the algorithm for steam turbine control under loading drop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikitin, Yu.V.; Mirnyj, V.A.; Gritsenko, V.N.; Nesterov, L.V.

1989-01-01

Problem related to powerful steam turbine control in case of emergency loading drop is considered. Two laws of control creating conditions for qualitative operation of control system under conditions considered are compared. The system of turbine control comprises the turbine major actuating mechanisms (electrohydraulic transducer, high-pressure servomotor, cut-off slide valve) actuating mechanisms of pulse discharge channel (low-pressure servomotor cut-off slide valve, low-pressure servomotor) and regulator. The frequency of the turbine rotor rotation is the parameter to be controlled in the mode of loading drop. The algorithms considered are based on linear variant of the optimal control theory. One of them is realized in electrohydraulic system of the K-750-65/3000 turbine control at the Ignalinsk NPP

Reducing the network load and optimization of the economic efficiency of CHP plants by forecast-guided control; Verringerung der Netzbelastung und Optimierung der Wirtschaftlichkeit von KWK-Anlagen durch prognosegefuehrte Steuerung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glaser, Daniel; Adelhardt, Stefan [Erlangen-Nuernberg Univ., Erlangen (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Sensorik; beECO GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

2012-07-01

Heat-guided combined heat and power (CHP) plants often cause large compensation energy amounts, additional costs to the operator respectively and another burden on the parent network. The balance energy is caused by errors in the production forecast whose quality heavily depends on the heat load performance. This paper identifies the forecasting problems with heat-guided CHP and reveals how the accompanying cost and the network burden can be reduced. This is achieved by an improvement of the forecast in conjunction with a forecast-guided control without affecting the heat supply. In addition, an outlook on further measures to the earnings with the system is presented. (orig.)

Application of epidemic algorithms for smart grids control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krkoleva, Aleksandra

2012-01-01

the balance of production and demand within a Micro grid. In this case, the implementation og gossip algorithms enables maintaining the overall consumption of the group and facilities load forecasting. The main contribution of the thesis is the successful selection and adaptation of gossip algorithms for decentralized control in Smart Grids. The thesis presents an innovative concept for organizing consumers for providing ancillary services and participating in demand response action in Smart Grids. (Author)

Unit commitment solution using agglomerative and divisive cluster algorithm : an effective new methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reddy, N.M.; Reddy, K.R. [G. Narayanamma Inst. of Technology and Science, Hyderabad (India). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Ramana, N.V. [JNTU College of Engineering, Jagityala (India). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

2008-07-01

Thermal power plants consist of several generating units with different generating capacities, fuel cost per MWH generated, minimum up/down times, and start-up or shut-down costs. The Unit Commitment (UC) problem in power systems involves determining the start-up and shut-down schedules of thermal generating units to meet forecasted load over a future short term for a period of one to seven days. This paper presented a new approach for the most complex UC problem using agglomerative and divisive hierarchical clustering. Euclidean costs, which are a measure of differences in fuel cost and start-up costs of any two units, were first calculated. Then, depending on the value of Euclidean costs, similar type of units were placed in a cluster. The proposed methodology has 2 individual algorithms. An agglomerative cluster algorithm is used while the load is increasing, and a divisive cluster algorithm is used when the load is decreasing. A search was conducted for an optimal solution for a minimal number of clusters and cluster data points. A standard ten-unit thermal unit power system was used to test and evaluate the performance of the method for a period of 24 hours. The new approach proved to be quite effective and satisfactory. 15 refs., 9 tabs., 5 figs.

Wave forecasting in near real time basis by neural network

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Rao, S.; Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

., forecasting of waves become an important aspect of marine environment. This paper presents application of the neural network (NN) with better update algorithms, namely rprop, quickprop and superSAB for wave forecasting. Measured waves off Marmagoa, Goa, India...

Combining neural networks and genetic algorithms for hydrological flow forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Neruda, Roman; Srejber, Jan; Neruda, Martin; Pascenko, Petr

2010-05-01

We present a neural network approach to rainfall-runoff modeling for small size river basins based on several time series of hourly measured data. Different neural networks are considered for short time runoff predictions (from one to six hours lead time) based on runoff and rainfall data observed in previous time steps. Correlation analysis shows that runoff data, short time rainfall history, and aggregated API values are the most significant data for the prediction. Neural models of multilayer perceptron and radial basis function networks with different numbers of units are used and compared with more traditional linear time series predictors. Out of possible 48 hours of relevant history of all the input variables, the most important ones are selected by means of input filters created by a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm works with population of binary encoded vectors defining input selection patterns. Standard genetic operators of two-point crossover, random bit-flipping mutation, and tournament selection were used. The evaluation of objective function of each individual consists of several rounds of building and testing a particular neural network model. The whole procedure is rather computational exacting (taking hours to days on a desktop PC), thus a high-performance mainframe computer has been used for our experiments. Results based on two years worth data from the Ploucnice river in Northern Bohemia suggest that main problems connected with this approach to modeling are ovetraining that can lead to poor generalization, and relatively small number of extreme events which makes it difficult for a model to predict the amplitude of the event. Thus, experiments with both absolute and relative runoff predictions were carried out. In general it can be concluded that the neural models show about 5 per cent improvement in terms of efficiency coefficient over liner models. Multilayer perceptrons with one hidden layer trained by back propagation algorithm and

Improving Artificial Neural Network Forecasts with Kalman Filtering ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, we examine the use of the artificial neural network method as a forecasting technique in financial time series and the application of a Kalman filter algorithm to improve the accuracy of the model. Forecasting accuracy criteria are used to compare the two models over different set of data from different companies ...

1991 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1992-03-01

This publication provides detailed documentation of the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used in preparing BPA's 1991 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study (the Study). This is one of two technical appendices to the Study; the other appendix details the utility-specific loads and resources used in the Study. The load forecasts and assumption were developed jointly by Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Northwest Power Planning Council (Council) staff. This forecast is also used in the Council's 1991 Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan (1991 Plan).

Evolutionary Forecast Engines for Solar Meteorology

Science.gov (United States)

Coimbra, C. F.

2012-12-01

A detailed comparison of non-stationary regression and stochastic learning methods based on k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approaches is carried out in order to develop high-fidelity solar forecast engines for several time horizons of interest. A hybrid GA/ANN method emerges as the most robust stochastic learning candidate. The GA/ANN approach In general the following decisions need to be made when creating an ANN-based solar forecast model: the ANN architecture: number of layers, numbers of neurons per layer; the preprocessing scheme; the fraction and distribution between training and testing data, and the meteorological and radiometric inputs. ANNs are very well suited to handle multivariate forecasting models due to their overall flexibility and nonlinear pattern recognition abilities. However, the forecasting skill of ANNs depends on a new set of parameters to be optimized within the context of the forecast model, which is the selection of input variables that most directly impact the fidelity of the forecasts. In a data rich scenario where irradiation, meteorological, and cloud cover data are available, it is not always evident which variables to include in the model a priori. New variables can also arise from data preprocessing such as smoothing or spectral decomposition. One way to avoid time-consuming trial-and-error approaches that have limited chance to result in optimal ANN topology and input selection is to couple the ANN with some optimization algorithm that scans the solution space and "evolves" the ANN structure. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are well suited for this task. Results and Discussion The models built upon the historical data of 2009 and 2010 are applied to the 2011 data without modifications or retraining. We consider 3 solar variability seasons or periods, which are subsets of the total error evaluation data set. The 3 periods are defined based on the solar variability study as: - a high

Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

2012-01-01

In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

Dynamic Regression Intervention Modeling for the Malaysian Daily Load

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fadhilah Abdrazak

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays.  These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors.  If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed.  Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis.   Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed.  The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE in load forecast.

Application of the nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm for forecasting surface wind of point station in the South China Sea with scatterometer observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhong Jian; Dong Gang; Sun Yimei; Zhang Zhaoyang; Wu Yuqin

2016-01-01

The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm (GA) with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea (SCS) with scatterometer observations. Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind, the SSA is applied to reduce the noise. The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique. The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error. The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days (longer for some point station) in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model. This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin. (paper)

Dynamic intelligent cleaning model of dirty electric load data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiaoxing; Sun Caixin

2008-01-01

There are a number of dirty data in the load database derived from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Thus, the data must be carefully and reasonably adjusted before it is used for electric load forecasting or power system analysis. This paper proposes a dynamic and intelligent data cleaning model based on data mining theory. Firstly, on the basis of fuzzy soft clustering, the Kohonen clustering network is improved to fulfill the parallel calculation of fuzzy c-means soft clustering. Then, the proposed dynamic algorithm can automatically find the new clustering center (the characteristic curve of the data) with the updated sample data; At last, it is composed with radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and then, an intelligent adjusting model is proposed to identify the dirty data. The rapid and dynamic performance of the model makes it suitable for real time calculation, and the efficiency and accuracy of the model is proved by test results of electrical load data analysis in Chongqing

Real-time Social Internet Data to Guide Forecasting Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Del Valle, Sara Y. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-09-20

Our goal is to improve decision support by monitoring and forecasting events using social media, mathematical models, and quantifying model uncertainty. Our approach is real-time, data-driven forecasts with quantified uncertainty: Not just for weather anymore. Information flow from human observations of events through an Internet system and classification algorithms is used to produce quantitatively uncertain forecast. In summary, we want to develop new tools to extract useful information from Internet data streams, develop new approaches to assimilate real-time information into predictive models, validate approaches by forecasting events, and our ultimate goal is to develop an event forecasting system using mathematical approaches and heterogeneous data streams.