Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

2014-01-01

In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits

A Predictive Logistic Regression Model of World Conflict Using Open Source Data

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-26

No correlation between the error terms and the independent variables 9. Absence of perfect multicollinearity (Menard, 2001) When assumptions are...some of the variables before initial model building. Multicollinearity , or near-linear dependence among the variables will cause problems in the...model. High multicollinearity tends to produce unreasonably high logistic regression coefficients and can result in coefficients that are not

Resolution of an uncertain closed-loop logistics model: an application to fuzzy linear programs with risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hsiao-Fan; Hsu, Hsin-Wei

2010-11-01

With the urgency of global warming, green supply chain management, logistics in particular, has drawn the attention of researchers. Although there are closed-loop green logistics models in the literature, most of them do not consider the uncertain environment in general terms. In this study, a generalized model is proposed where the uncertainty is expressed by fuzzy numbers. An interval programming model is proposed by the defined means and mean square imprecision index obtained from the integrated information of all the level cuts of fuzzy numbers. The resolution for interval programming is based on the decision maker (DM)'s preference. The resulting solution provides useful information on the expected solutions under a confidence level containing a degree of risk. The results suggest that the more optimistic the DM is, the better is the resulting solution. However, a higher risk of violation of the resource constraints is also present. By defining this probable risk, a solution procedure was developed with numerical illustrations. This provides a DM trade-off mechanism between logistic cost and the risk. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Modeling of Solutions in the System of Distributing Logistics of a Fruit and Vegetable Cooperative

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Oleksandr Velychko

2014-12-01

Full Text Available A mechanism of preparing rationalistic solutions in the system of distributing logistics of a fruit and vegetable cooperative has been studied considering possible alternatives and existing limitations. Belonging of separate operations of the fruit and vegetable cooperative to technological, logistical or marketing business processes has been identified. Expediency of the integrated use of logistical concept DRP, decision tree method and linear programming in management of the cooperative has been grounded. The model for preparing decisions on organizing sales of vegetables and fruit which is focused on minimization of costs of cooperative services and maximization of profits for members of the cooperation has been developed. The necessity to consider integrated model of differentiation on levels of post gathering processing and logistical service has been revealed. Methodology of representation in the economical-mathematical model of probabilities in the tree of decisions concerning the expected amount of sales and margin for members of the cooperative using different channels has been processed. A formula which enables scientists to describe limitations in linear programming concerning critical duration of providing harvest of vegetables and fruit after gathering towards a customer has been suggested.

New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

2018-05-17

This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Neo-logistic model for the growth of bacteria

OpenAIRE

Tashiro, Tohru; Yoshimura, Fujiko

2017-01-01

We propose a neo-logistic model that can describe bacterial growth data precisely. This model is not derived by modifying the logistic model formally, but by incorporating the synthesis of inducible enzymes into the logistic model indirectly. Therefore, the meaning of the parameters of the neo-logistic model becomes physically clear. The neo-logistic model can approximate bacterial growth better than models previously presented, and predict the order of the saturated number of bacteria in the...

Estimating traffic volume on Wyoming low volume roads using linear and logistic regression methods

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Dick Apronti

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Traffic volume is an important parameter in most transportation planning applications. Low volume roads make up about 69% of road miles in the United States. Estimating traffic on the low volume roads is a cost-effective alternative to taking traffic counts. This is because traditional traffic counts are expensive and impractical for low priority roads. The purpose of this paper is to present the development of two alternative means of cost-effectively estimating traffic volumes for low volume roads in Wyoming and to make recommendations for their implementation. The study methodology involves reviewing existing studies, identifying data sources, and carrying out the model development. The utility of the models developed were then verified by comparing actual traffic volumes to those predicted by the model. The study resulted in two regression models that are inexpensive and easy to implement. The first regression model was a linear regression model that utilized pavement type, access to highways, predominant land use types, and population to estimate traffic volume. In verifying the model, an R2 value of 0.64 and a root mean square error of 73.4% were obtained. The second model was a logistic regression model that identified the level of traffic on roads using five thresholds or levels. The logistic regression model was verified by estimating traffic volume thresholds and determining the percentage of roads that were accurately classified as belonging to the given thresholds. For the five thresholds, the percentage of roads classified correctly ranged from 79% to 88%. In conclusion, the verification of the models indicated both model types to be useful for accurate and cost-effective estimation of traffic volumes for low volume Wyoming roads. The models developed were recommended for use in traffic volume estimations for low volume roads in pavement management and environmental impact assessment studies.

Use of multiple linear regression and logistic regression models to investigate changes in birthweight for term singleton infants in Scotland.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonellie, Sandra R

2012-10-01

To illustrate the use of regression and logistic regression models to investigate changes over time in size of babies particularly in relation to social deprivation, age of the mother and smoking. Mean birthweight has been found to be increasing in many countries in recent years, but there are still a group of babies who are born with low birthweights. Population-based retrospective cohort study. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression models are used to analyse data on term 'singleton births' from Scottish hospitals between 1994-2003. Mothers who smoke are shown to give birth to lighter babies on average, a difference of approximately 0.57 Standard deviations lower (95% confidence interval. 0.55-0.58) when adjusted for sex and parity. These mothers are also more likely to have babies that are low birthweight (odds ratio 3.46, 95% confidence interval 3.30-3.63) compared with non-smokers. Low birthweight is 30% more likely where the mother lives in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived, (odds ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.21-1.40). Smoking during pregnancy is shown to have a detrimental effect on the size of infants at birth. This effect explains some, though not all, of the observed socioeconomic birthweight. It also explains much of the observed birthweight differences by the age of the mother.   Identifying mothers at greater risk of having a low birthweight baby as important implications for the care and advice this group receives. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

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Dezhi Zhang

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

Transport spatial model for the definition of green routes for city logistics centers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pamučar, Dragan, E-mail: dpamucar@gmail.com [University of Defence in Belgrade, Department of Logistics, Pavla Jurisica Sturma 33, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Gigović, Ljubomir, E-mail: gigoviclj@gmail.com [University of Defence in Belgrade, Department of Mathematics, Pavla Jurisica Sturma 33, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Ćirović, Goran, E-mail: cirovic@sezampro.rs [College of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, The Belgrade University, Hajduk Stankova 2, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Regodić, Miodrag, E-mail: mregodic62@gmail.com [University of Defence in Belgrade, Department of Mathematics, Pavla Jurisica Sturma 33, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia)

2016-01-15

This paper presents a transport spatial decision support model (TSDSM) for carrying out the optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. The TSDSM model is based on the integration of the multi-criteria method of Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and the modified Dijkstra algorithm within a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS is used for processing spatial data. The proposed model makes it possible to plan routes for green vehicles and maximize the positive effects on the environment, which can be seen in the reduction of harmful gas emissions and an increase in the air quality in highly populated areas. The scheduling of delivery vehicles is given as a problem of optimization in terms of the parameters of: the environment, health, use of space and logistics operating costs. Each of these input parameters was thoroughly examined and broken down in the GIS into criteria which further describe them. The model presented here takes into account the fact that logistics operators have a limited number of environmentally friendly (green) vehicles available. The TSDSM was tested on a network of roads with 127 links for the delivery of goods from the city logistics center to the user. The model supports any number of available environmentally friendly or environmentally unfriendly vehicles consistent with the size of the network and the transportation requirements. - Highlights: • Model for routing light delivery vehicles in urban areas. • Optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. • The proposed model maximizes the positive effects on the environment. • The model was tested on a real network.

Transport spatial model for the definition of green routes for city logistics centers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pamučar, Dragan; Gigović, Ljubomir; Ćirović, Goran; Regodić, Miodrag

2016-01-01

This paper presents a transport spatial decision support model (TSDSM) for carrying out the optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. The TSDSM model is based on the integration of the multi-criteria method of Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and the modified Dijkstra algorithm within a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS is used for processing spatial data. The proposed model makes it possible to plan routes for green vehicles and maximize the positive effects on the environment, which can be seen in the reduction of harmful gas emissions and an increase in the air quality in highly populated areas. The scheduling of delivery vehicles is given as a problem of optimization in terms of the parameters of: the environment, health, use of space and logistics operating costs. Each of these input parameters was thoroughly examined and broken down in the GIS into criteria which further describe them. The model presented here takes into account the fact that logistics operators have a limited number of environmentally friendly (green) vehicles available. The TSDSM was tested on a network of roads with 127 links for the delivery of goods from the city logistics center to the user. The model supports any number of available environmentally friendly or environmentally unfriendly vehicles consistent with the size of the network and the transportation requirements. - Highlights: • Model for routing light delivery vehicles in urban areas. • Optimization of green routes for city logistics centers. • The proposed model maximizes the positive effects on the environment. • The model was tested on a real network.

Targeting: Logistic Regression, Special Cases and Extensions

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Helmut Schaeben

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Logistic regression is a classical linear model for logit-transformed conditional probabilities of a binary target variable. It recovers the true conditional probabilities if the joint distribution of predictors and the target is of log-linear form. Weights-of-evidence is an ordinary logistic regression with parameters equal to the differences of the weights of evidence if all predictor variables are discrete and conditionally independent given the target variable. The hypothesis of conditional independence can be tested in terms of log-linear models. If the assumption of conditional independence is violated, the application of weights-of-evidence does not only corrupt the predicted conditional probabilities, but also their rank transform. Logistic regression models, including the interaction terms, can account for the lack of conditional independence, appropriate interaction terms compensate exactly for violations of conditional independence. Multilayer artificial neural nets may be seen as nested regression-like models, with some sigmoidal activation function. Most often, the logistic function is used as the activation function. If the net topology, i.e., its control, is sufficiently versatile to mimic interaction terms, artificial neural nets are able to account for violations of conditional independence and yield very similar results. Weights-of-evidence cannot reasonably include interaction terms; subsequent modifications of the weights, as often suggested, cannot emulate the effect of interaction terms.

Modeling CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion using the logistic equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng, Ming; Niu, Dongxiao

2011-01-01

CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion have been known to contribute to the greenhouse effect. Research on emission trends and further forecasting their further values is important for adjusting energy policies, particularly those relative to low carbon. Except for a few countries, the main figures of CO 2 emission from fossil fuel combustion in other countries are S-shaped curves. The logistic function is selected to simulate the S-shaped curve, and to improve the goodness of fit, three algorithms were provided to estimate its parameters. Considering the different emission characteristics of different industries, the three algorithms estimated the parameters of CO 2 emission in each industry separately. The most suitable parameters for each industry are selected based on the criterion of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). With the combined simulation values of the selected models, the estimate of total CO 2 emission from fossil fuel combustion is obtained. The empirical analysis of China shows that our method is better than the linear model in terms of goodness of fit and simulation risk. -- Highlights: → Figures of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in most countries are S-shape curves. → Using the logistic function to model the S-shape curve. → Three algorithms are offered to estimate the parameters of the logistic function. → The empirical analysis from China shows that the logistic equation has satisfactory simulation results.

Design of an integrated forward and reverse logistics network optimi-zation model for commercial goods management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Ponce-Cueto

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, an optimization model is formulated for designing an integrated forward and reverse logistics network in the consumer goods industry. The resultant model is a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP. Its purpose is to minimize the total costs of the closed-loop supply chain network. It is important to note that the design of the logistics network may involve a trade-off between the total costs and the optimality in commercial goods management. The model comprises a discrete set as potential locations of unlimited capacity warehouses and fixed locations of customers’ zones. It provides decisions related to the facility location and customers’ requirements satisfaction, all of this related with the inventory and shipment decisions of the supply chain. Finally, an application of this model is illustrated by a real-life case in the food and drinks industry. We can conclude that this model can significantly help companies to make decisions about problems associated with logistics network design.

Recursive and non-linear logistic regression: moving on from the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II methodologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Poullis, Michael

2014-11-01

EuroSCORE II, despite improving on the original EuroSCORE system, has not solved all the calibration and predictability issues. Recursive, non-linear and mixed recursive and non-linear regression analysis were assessed with regard to sensitivity, specificity and predictability of the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II systems. The original logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and recursive, non-linear and mixed recursive and non-linear regression analyses of these risk models were assessed via receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic analysis with regard to the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality. Analysis was performed for isolated coronary artery bypass grafts (CABGs) (n = 2913), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (n = 814), mitral valve surgery (n = 340), combined AVR and CABG (n = 517), aortic (n = 350), miscellaneous cases (n = 642), and combinations of the above cases (n = 5576). The original EuroSCORE had an ROC below 0.7 for isolated AVR and combined AVR and CABG. None of the methods described increased the ROC above 0.7. The EuroSCORE II risk model had an ROC below 0.7 for isolated AVR only. Recursive regression, non-linear regression, and mixed recursive and non-linear regression all increased the ROC above 0.7 for isolated AVR. The original EuroSCORE had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was above 0.05 for all patients and the subgroups analysed. All of the techniques markedly increased the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The EuroSCORE II risk model had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was significant for all patients (P linear regression failed to improve on the original Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The mixed recursive and non-linear regression using the EuroSCORE II risk model was the only model that produced an ROC of 0.7 or above for all patients and procedures and had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was highly non-significant. The original EuroSCORE and the EuroSCORE II risk models do not have adequate ROC and Hosmer

Comparing the Discrete and Continuous Logistic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Sheldon P.

2008-01-01

The solutions of the discrete logistic growth model based on a difference equation and the continuous logistic growth model based on a differential equation are compared and contrasted. The investigation is conducted using a dynamic interactive spreadsheet. (Contains 5 figures.)

Spatial Model for Determining the Optimum Placement of Logistics Centers in a Predefined Economic Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramona Iulia Țarțavulea (Dieaconescu

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The process of globalization has stimulated the demand for logistics services at a level of speed and increased efficiency, which involves using of techniques, tools, technologies and modern models in supply chain management. The aim of this research paper is to present a model that can be used in order to achieve an optimized supply chain, associated with minimum transportation costs. The utilization of spatial modeling for determining the optimal locations for logistics centers in a predefined economic area is proposd in this paper. The principal methods used to design the model are mathematic optimization and linear programming. The output data of the model are the precise placement of one up to ten logistics centers, in terms of minimum operational costs for delivery from the optimum locations to consumer points. The results of the research indicate that by using the proposed model, an efficient supply chain that is consistent with optimization of transport can be designed, in order to streamline the delivery process and thus reduce operational costs

How to deal with continuous and dichotomic outcomes in epidemiological research: linear and logistic regression analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tripepi, Giovanni; Jager, Kitty J.; Stel, Vianda S.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Zoccali, Carmine

2011-01-01

Because of some limitations of stratification methods, epidemiologists frequently use multiple linear and logistic regression analyses to address specific epidemiological questions. If the dependent variable is a continuous one (for example, systolic pressure and serum creatinine), the researcher

Ajuste de modelos estocásticos lineares e não-lineares para a descrição do perfil longitudinal de árvores Fitting linear and nonlinear stochastic models to describe longitudinal tree profile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Machado Pires

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Os modelos polinomiais são mais difundidos no meio florestal brasileiro na descrição do perfil de árvores devido à sua facilidade de ajuste e precisão. O mesmo não ocorre com os modelos não-lineares, os quais possuem maior dificuldade de ajuste. Dentre os modelos não-lineares clássicos, na descrição do perfil, podem-se citar o de Gompertz, o Logístico e o de Weibull. Portanto, este estudo visou comparar os modelos lineares e não lineares para a descrição do perfil de árvores. As medidas de comparação foram o coeficiente de determinação (R², o erro-padrão residual (s yx, o coeficiente de determinação corrigido (R²ajustado, o gráfico dos resíduos e a facilidade de ajuste. Os resultados ressaltaram que, dentre os modelos não-lineares, o que obteve melhor desempenho, de forma geral, foi o modelo Logístico, apesar de o modelo de Gompertz ser melhor em termos de erro-padrão residual. Nos modelos lineares, o polinômio proposto por Pires & Calegario foi superior aos demais. Ao comparar os modelos não-lineares com os lineares, o modelo Logístico foi melhor em razão, principalmente, do fato de o comportamento dos dados ser não-linear, à baixa correlação entre os parâmetros e à fácil interpretação deles, facilitando a convergência e o ajuste.Polynomial models are most commonly used in Brazilian forestry for taper modeling due to its straightforwardly fitting and precision. The use of nonlinear regression classic models, like Gompertz, Logistic and Weibull, is not very common in Brazil. Therefore, this study aimed to verify the best nonlinear and linear models, and among these the best model to describe the longitudinal tree profile. The comparison measures were: R², syx, R²adjusted, residual graphics and fitting convergence. The results pointed out that among the non-linear models the best behavior, in general, was given by the Logistic model, although the Gompertz model was superior compared with the Weibull

Reference model analysis of suitability for logistics management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cezary Mańkowski

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Reference models are one of the many instruments aspiring to find into a set of different concepts, methods and techniques used in managing the logistics. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the results of assessing the suitability of reference models for solving logistical problems. This evaluation indicates that they are universal, support the realization of all the logistics management function in various areas, such as logistics of manufacturing glass products.

Fungible weights in logistic regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Jeff A; Waller, Niels G

2016-06-01

In this article we develop methods for assessing parameter sensitivity in logistic regression models. To set the stage for this work, we first review Waller's (2008) equations for computing fungible weights in linear regression. Next, we describe 2 methods for computing fungible weights in logistic regression. To demonstrate the utility of these methods, we compute fungible logistic regression weights using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (2010) Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey, and we illustrate how these alternate weights can be used to evaluate parameter sensitivity. To make our work accessible to the research community, we provide R code (R Core Team, 2015) that will generate both kinds of fungible logistic regression weights. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The logistic model-generated carrying capacities, maximum ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper deals with the derivation of logistic models for cattle, sheep and goats in a commercial ranching system in Machakos District, Kenya, a savannah ecosystem with average annual rainfall of 589.3 ± 159.3mm and an area of 10 117ha. It involves modelling livestock population dynamics as discrete-time logistic ...

Analysis of RIA standard curve by log-logistic and cubic log-logit models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, Hideo; Kuroda, Akira; Yatabe, Tami; Inaba, Taeko; Chiba, Kazuo

1981-01-01

In order to improve goodness-of-fit in RIA standard analysis, programs for computing log-logistic and cubic log-logit were written in BASIC using personal computer P-6060 (Olivetti). Iterative least square method of Taylor series was applied for non-linear estimation of logistic and log-logistic. Hear ''log-logistic'' represents Y = (a - d)/(1 + (log(X)/c)sup(b)) + d As weights either 1, 1/var(Y) or 1/σ 2 were used in logistic or log-logistic and either Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 , Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /var(Y), or Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /σ 2 were used in quadratic or cubic log-logit. The term var(Y) represents squares of pure error and σ 2 represents estimated variance calculated using a following equation log(σ 2 + 1) = log(A) + J log(y). As indicators for goodness-of-fit, MSL/S sub(e)sup(2), CMD% and WRV (see text) were used. Better regression was obtained in case of alpha-fetoprotein by log-logistic than by logistic. Cortisol standard curve was much better fitted with cubic log-logit than quadratic log-logit. Predicted precision of AFP standard curve was below 5% in log-logistic in stead of 8% in logistic analysis. Predicted precision obtained using cubic log-logit was about five times lower than that with quadratic log-logit. Importance of selecting good models in RIA data processing was stressed in conjunction with intrinsic precision of radioimmunoassay system indicated by predicted precision. (author)

Predicting Madura cattle growth curve using non-linear model

Science.gov (United States)

Widyas, N.; Prastowo, S.; Widi, T. S. M.; Baliarti, E.

2018-03-01

Madura cattle is Indonesian native. It is a composite breed that has undergone hundreds of years of selection and domestication to reach nowadays remarkable uniformity. Crossbreeding has reached the isle of Madura and the Madrasin, a cross between Madura cows and Limousine semen emerged. This paper aimed to compare the growth curve between Madrasin and one type of pure Madura cows, the common Madura cattle (Madura) using non-linear models. Madura cattles are kept traditionally thus reliable records are hardly available. Data were collected from small holder farmers in Madura. Cows from different age classes (5years) were observed, and body measurements (chest girth, body length and wither height) were taken. In total 63 Madura and 120 Madrasin records obtained. Linear model was built with cattle sub-populations and age as explanatory variables. Body weights were estimated based on the chest girth. Growth curves were built using logistic regression. Results showed that within the same age, Madrasin has significantly larger body compared to Madura (plogistic models fit better for Madura and Madrasin cattle data; with the estimated MSE for these models were 39.09 and 759.28 with prediction accuracy of 99 and 92% for Madura and Madrasin, respectively. Prediction of growth curve using logistic regression model performed well in both types of Madura cattle. However, attempts to administer accurate data on Madura cattle are necessary to better characterize and study these cattle.

Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoltán Bokor

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

Um modelo de otimização linear para o planejamento agregado da produção e logística de sementes de milho A linear optimization model to the aggregate production and logistics planning of corn seeds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogério de Ávila Ribeiro Junqueira

2006-12-01

Full Text Available A produção de sementes de milho envolve uma cadeia de produção agroindustrial complexa cujos agentes devem primar por oferecer produtos de alta qualidade a um baixo custo para se manterem competitivos no mercado. Neste trabalho, um modelo de otimização linear é proposto para auxiliar nas decisões do planejamento tático da produção, estocagem e transporte de sementes de milho, de forma a minimizar custos de produção, logísticos e fiscais, atendendo às restrições de programação da colheita, capacidade das plantas e demanda dos clientes. Para verificar a coerência do modelo e validar a abordagem, o modelo foi implementado na linguagem de modelagem GAMS e aplicado para resolver diferentes cenários de um exemplo baseado em dados realistas de uma empresa. Os resultados mostraram a importância de se considerar os custos fiscais de ICMS no planejamento agregado da produção e logística de sementes de milho.The production of corn seeds involves a complex agro-industrial production chain whose main agents must offer products of high quality and low price to stay competitive in the market. This work proposes a linear optimization model to support decisions in the tactical planning of production, storing and transportation of corn seeds, designed to minimize production, logistics and tax costs and to satisfy crop planning, plant capacity and client demand constraints. In order to verify the consistency of the model and validate the approach, the model was implemented in the GAMS modeling language and applied to solve different scenarios of an example based on realistic data of a company. The results showed the importance of considering tax costs in the production and logistics aggregate planning of corn seeds.

Logistics and Transport - a conceptual model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, Per Homann; Drewes, Lise

2004-01-01

This paper describes how the freight transport sector is influenced by logistical principles of production and distribution. It introduces new ways of understanding freight transport as an integrated part of the changing trends of mobility. By introducing a conceptual model for understanding...... the interaction between logistics and transport, it points at ways to over-come inherent methodological difficulties when studying this relation...

An integrated logistic formula for prediction of complications from radiosurgery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flickinger, J.C.

1989-01-01

An integrated logistic model for predicting the probability of complications when small volumes of tissue receive an inhomogeneous radiation dose is described. This model can be used with either an exponential or linear quadratic correction for dose per fraction and time. Both the exponential and linear quadratic versions of this integrated logistic formula provide reasonable estimates of the tolerance of brain to radiosurgical dose distributions where there are small volumes of brain receiving high radiation doses and larger volumes receiving lower doses. This makes it possible to predict the probability of complications from stereotactic radiosurgery, as well as combinations of fractionated large volume irradiation with a radiosurgical boost. Complication probabilities predicted for single fraction radiosurgery with the Leksell Gamma Unit using 4, 8, 14, and 18 mm diameter collimators as well as for whole brain irradiation combined with a radiosurgical boost are presented. The exponential and linear quadratic versions of the integrated logistic formula provide useful methods of calculating the probability of complications from radiosurgical treatment

Planning model of purchasing logistics in outsourcing

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Igor JAKOMIN

2014-03-01

Full Text Available It is often the case that when preparing their offers, potential outsourcers of logistic activities do not thoroughly research all the activities that have an influence on the process of logistics. Consequently, they prepare relatively expensive offers (that can later lead to greater unexpected costs which, in many cases, business partners decide against and persist with their own existing methods of doing business. The original contribution to science in this article is a model that will aid better understanding of dealing with problems and will, in practice, serve as a tool for the successful execution of business offers by outsourcers. Following research we have discovered, and are able to confirm, that despite the high start-up costs of the outsourcing, in the long term the company can reduce logistic costs. The model presented serves as an in-depth analysis of the company which enables the definition of favourable and optimal offers for outsourcing. The model shown helps to minimise the influence of mistrust and emphasises the importance of reducing the logistic costs with outsourcing.

Foundations of linear and generalized linear models

CERN Document Server

Agresti, Alan

2015-01-01

A valuable overview of the most important ideas and results in statistical analysis Written by a highly-experienced author, Foundations of Linear and Generalized Linear Models is a clear and comprehensive guide to the key concepts and results of linear statistical models. The book presents a broad, in-depth overview of the most commonly used statistical models by discussing the theory underlying the models, R software applications, and examples with crafted models to elucidate key ideas and promote practical model building. The book begins by illustrating the fundamentals of linear models,

Sustainable logistics and transportation optimization models and algorithms

CERN Document Server

Gakis, Konstantinos; Pardalos, Panos

2017-01-01

Focused on the logistics and transportation operations within a supply chain, this book brings together the latest models, algorithms, and optimization possibilities. Logistics and transportation problems are examined within a sustainability perspective to offer a comprehensive assessment of environmental, social, ethical, and economic performance measures. Featured models, techniques, and algorithms may be used to construct policies on alternative transportation modes and technologies, green logistics, and incentives by the incorporation of environmental, economic, and social measures. Researchers, professionals, and graduate students in urban regional planning, logistics, transport systems, optimization, supply chain management, business administration, information science, mathematics, and industrial and systems engineering will find the real life and interdisciplinary issues presented in this book informative and useful.

Evolution Model and Simulation of Profit Model of Agricultural Products Logistics Financing

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Bo; Wu, Yan

2018-03-01

Agricultural products logistics financial warehousing business mainly involves agricultural production and processing enterprises, third-party logistics enterprises and financial institutions tripartite, to enable the three parties to achieve win-win situation, the article first gives the replication dynamics and evolutionary stability strategy between the three parties in business participation, and then use NetLogo simulation platform, using the overall modeling and simulation method of Multi-Agent, established the evolutionary game simulation model, and run the model under different revenue parameters, finally, analyzed the simulation results. To achieve the agricultural products logistics financial financing warehouse business to participate in tripartite mutually beneficial win-win situation, thus promoting the smooth flow of agricultural products logistics business.

A simple approach to power and sample size calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models.

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Vaeth, Michael; Skovlund, Eva

2004-06-15

For a given regression problem it is possible to identify a suitably defined equivalent two-sample problem such that the power or sample size obtained for the two-sample problem also applies to the regression problem. For a standard linear regression model the equivalent two-sample problem is easily identified, but for generalized linear models and for Cox regression models the situation is more complicated. An approximately equivalent two-sample problem may, however, also be identified here. In particular, we show that for logistic regression and Cox regression models the equivalent two-sample problem is obtained by selecting two equally sized samples for which the parameters differ by a value equal to the slope times twice the standard deviation of the independent variable and further requiring that the overall expected number of events is unchanged. In a simulation study we examine the validity of this approach to power calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models. Several different covariate distributions are considered for selected values of the overall response probability and a range of alternatives. For the Cox regression model we consider both constant and non-constant hazard rates. The results show that in general the approach is remarkably accurate even in relatively small samples. Some discrepancies are, however, found in small samples with few events and a highly skewed covariate distribution. Comparison with results based on alternative methods for logistic regression models with a single continuous covariate indicates that the proposed method is at least as good as its competitors. The method is easy to implement and therefore provides a simple way to extend the range of problems that can be covered by the usual formulas for power and sample size determination. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SPD-based Logistics Management Model of Medical Consumables in Hospitals

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LIU, Tongzhu; SHEN, Aizong; HU, Xiaojian; TONG, Guixian; GU, Wei; YANG, Shanlin

2016-01-01

Background: With the rapid development of health services, the progress of medical science and technology, and the improvement of materials research, the consumption of medical consumables (MCs) in medical activities has increased in recent years. However, owing to the lack of effective management methods and the complexity of MCs, there are several management problems including MC waste, low management efficiency, high management difficulty, and frequent medical accidents. Therefore, there is urgent need for an effective logistics management model to handle these problems and challenges in hospitals. Methods: We reviewed books and scientific literature (by searching the articles published from 2010 to 2015 in Engineering Village database) to understand supply chain related theories and methods and performed field investigations in hospitals across many cities to determine the actual state of MC logistics management of hospitals in China. Results: We describe the definition, physical model, construction, and logistics operation processes of the supply, processing, and distribution (SPD) of MC logistics because of the traditional SPD model. With the establishment of a supply-procurement platform and a logistics lean management system, we applied the model to the MC logistics management of Anhui Provincial Hospital with good effects. Conclusion: The SPD model plays a critical role in optimizing the logistics procedures of MCs, improving the management efficiency of logistics, and reducing the costs of logistics of hospitals in China. PMID:27957435

SPD-based Logistics Management Model of Medical Consumables in Hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tongzhu; Shen, Aizong; Hu, Xiaojian; Tong, Guixian; Gu, Wei; Yang, Shanlin

2016-10-01

With the rapid development of health services, the progress of medical science and technology, and the improvement of materials research, the consumption of medical consumables (MCs) in medical activities has increased in recent years. However, owing to the lack of effective management methods and the complexity of MCs, there are several management problems including MC waste, low management efficiency, high management difficulty, and frequent medical accidents. Therefore, there is urgent need for an effective logistics management model to handle these problems and challenges in hospitals. We reviewed books and scientific literature (by searching the articles published from 2010 to 2015 in Engineering Village database) to understand supply chain related theories and methods and performed field investigations in hospitals across many cities to determine the actual state of MC logistics management of hospitals in China. We describe the definition, physical model, construction, and logistics operation processes of the supply, processing, and distribution (SPD) of MC logistics because of the traditional SPD model. With the establishment of a supply-procurement platform and a logistics lean management system, we applied the model to the MC logistics management of Anhui Provincial Hospital with good effects. The SPD model plays a critical role in optimizing the logistics procedures of MCs, improving the management efficiency of logistics, and reducing the costs of logistics of hospitals in China.

Testing concordance of instrumental variable effects in generalized linear models with application to Mendelian randomization

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Dai, James Y.; Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Hsu, Li

2014-01-01

Instrumental variable regression is one way to overcome unmeasured confounding and estimate causal effect in observational studies. Built on structural mean models, there has been considerale work recently developed for consistent estimation of causal relative risk and causal odds ratio. Such models can sometimes suffer from identification issues for weak instruments. This hampered the applicability of Mendelian randomization analysis in genetic epidemiology. When there are multiple genetic variants available as instrumental variables, and causal effect is defined in a generalized linear model in the presence of unmeasured confounders, we propose to test concordance between instrumental variable effects on the intermediate exposure and instrumental variable effects on the disease outcome, as a means to test the causal effect. We show that a class of generalized least squares estimators provide valid and consistent tests of causality. For causal effect of a continuous exposure on a dichotomous outcome in logistic models, the proposed estimators are shown to be asymptotically conservative. When the disease outcome is rare, such estimators are consistent due to the log-linear approximation of the logistic function. Optimality of such estimators relative to the well-known two-stage least squares estimator and the double-logistic structural mean model is further discussed. PMID:24863158

Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

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Bolfarine, Heleno; Bazan, Jorge Luis

2010-01-01

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric…

Describing Growth Pattern of Bali Cows Using Non-linear Regression Models

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Mohd. Hafiz A.W

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the best fit non-linear regression model to describe the growth pattern of Bali cows. Estimates of asymptotic mature weight, rate of maturing and constant of integration were derived from Brody, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Logistic models which were fitted to cross-sectional data of body weight taken from 74 Bali cows raised in MARDI Research Station Muadzam Shah Pahang. Coefficient of determination (R2 and residual mean squares (MSE were used to determine the best fit model in describing the growth pattern of Bali cows. Von Bertalanffy model was the best model among the four growth functions evaluated to determine the mature weight of Bali cattle as shown by the highest R2 and lowest MSE values (0.973 and 601.9, respectively, followed by Gompertz (0.972 and 621.2, respectively, Logistic (0.971 and 648.4, respectively and Brody (0.932 and 660.5, respectively models. The correlation between rate of maturing and mature weight was found to be negative in the range of -0.170 to -0.929 for all models, indicating that animals of heavier mature weight had lower rate of maturing. The use of non-linear model could summarize the weight-age relationship into several biologically interpreted parameters compared to the entire lifespan weight-age data points that are difficult and time consuming to interpret.

Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

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Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

2017-06-01

A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

Challenges and models in supporting logistics system design for dedicated-biomass-based bioenergy industry.

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Zhu, Xiaoyan; Li, Xueping; Yao, Qingzhu; Chen, Yuerong

2011-01-01

This paper analyzed the uniqueness and challenges in designing the logistics system for dedicated biomass-to-bioenergy industry, which differs from the other industries, due to the unique features of dedicated biomass (e.g., switchgrass) including its low bulk density, restrictions on harvesting season and frequency, content variation with time and circumambient conditions, weather effects, scattered distribution over a wide geographical area, and so on. To design it, this paper proposed a mixed integer linear programming model. It covered from planting and harvesting switchgrass to delivering to a biorefinery and included the residue handling, concentrating on integrating strategic decisions on the supply chain design and tactical decisions on the annual operation schedules. The present numerical examples verified the model and demonstrated its use in practice. This paper showed that the operations of the logistics system were significantly different for harvesting and non-harvesting seasons, and that under the well-designed biomass logistics system, the mass production with a steady and sufficient supply of biomass can increase the unit profit of bioenergy. The analytical model and practical methodology proposed in this paper will help realize the commercial production in biomass-to-bioenergy industry. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

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Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

2010-01-01

In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

Modelling binary data

CERN Document Server

Collett, David

2002-01-01

INTRODUCTION Some Examples The Scope of this Book Use of Statistical Software STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR BINARY DATA The Binomial Distribution Inference about the Success Probability Comparison of Two Proportions Comparison of Two or More Proportions MODELS FOR BINARY AND BINOMIAL DATA Statistical Modelling Linear Models Methods of Estimation Fitting Linear Models to Binomial Data Models for Binomial Response Data The Linear Logistic Model Fitting the Linear Logistic Model to Binomial Data Goodness of Fit of a Linear Logistic Model Comparing Linear Logistic Models Linear Trend in Proportions Comparing Stimulus-Response Relationships Non-Convergence and Overfitting Some other Goodness of Fit Statistics Strategy for Model Selection Predicting a Binary Response Probability BIOASSAY AND SOME OTHER APPLICATIONS The Tolerance Distribution Estimating an Effective Dose Relative Potency Natural Response Non-Linear Logistic Regression Models Applications of the Complementary Log-Log Model MODEL CHECKING Definition of Re...

Logistic regression modelling: procedures and pitfalls in developing and interpreting prediction models

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Nataša Šarlija

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study sheds light on the most common issues related to applying logistic regression in prediction models for company growth. The purpose of the paper is 1 to provide a detailed demonstration of the steps in developing a growth prediction model based on logistic regression analysis, 2 to discuss common pitfalls and methodological errors in developing a model, and 3 to provide solutions and possible ways of overcoming these issues. Special attention is devoted to the question of satisfying logistic regression assumptions, selecting and defining dependent and independent variables, using classification tables and ROC curves, for reporting model strength, interpreting odds ratios as effect measures and evaluating performance of the prediction model. Development of a logistic regression model in this paper focuses on a prediction model of company growth. The analysis is based on predominantly financial data from a sample of 1471 small and medium-sized Croatian companies active between 2009 and 2014. The financial data is presented in the form of financial ratios divided into nine main groups depicting following areas of business: liquidity, leverage, activity, profitability, research and development, investing and export. The growth prediction model indicates aspects of a business critical for achieving high growth. In that respect, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, methodological, in terms of pointing out pitfalls and potential solutions in logistic regression modelling, and secondly, theoretical, in terms of identifying factors responsible for high growth of small and medium-sized companies.

Comparison of the binary logistic and skewed logistic (Scobit) models of injury severity in motor vehicle collisions.

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Tay, Richard

2016-03-01

The binary logistic model has been extensively used to analyze traffic collision and injury data where the outcome of interest has two categories. However, the assumption of a symmetric distribution may not be a desirable property in some cases, especially when there is a significant imbalance in the two categories of outcome. This study compares the standard binary logistic model with the skewed logistic model in two cases in which the symmetry assumption is violated in one but not the other case. The differences in the estimates, and thus the marginal effects obtained, are significant when the assumption of symmetry is violated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

City Logistics Modeling Efforts : Trends and Gaps - A Review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anand, N.R.; Quak, H.J.; Van Duin, J.H.R.; Tavasszy, L.A.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we present a review of city logistics modeling efforts reported in the literature for urban freight analysis. The review framework takes into account the diversity and complexity found in the present-day city logistics practice. Next, it covers the different aspects in the modeling

The Logistic Maturity Model: Application to a Fashion Company

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Claudia Battista

2013-08-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the structure of the logistic maturity model (LMM in detail and shows the possible improvements that can be achieved by using this model in terms of the identification of the most appropriate actions to be taken in order to increase the performance of the logistics processes in industrial companies. The paper also gives an example of the LMM’s application to a famous Italian female fashion firm, which decided to use the model as a guideline for the optimization of its supply chain. Relying on a 5-level maturity staircase, specific achievement indicators as well as key performance indicators and best practices are defined and related to each logistics area/process/sub-process, allowing any user to easily and rapidly understand the more critical logistical issues in terms of process immaturity.

An optimal hierarchical decision model for a regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan; Qin, Jin

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.

An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

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Dezhi Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users’ demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators’ service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.

An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209

Linear model analysis of the influencing factors of boar longevity in Southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chao; Li, Jia-Lian; Wei, Hong-Kui; Zhou, Yuan-Fei; Jiang, Si-Wen; Peng, Jian

2017-04-15

This study aimed to investigate the factors influencing the boar herd life month (BHLM) in Southern China. A total of 1630 records of culling boars from nine artificial insemination centers were collected from January 2013 to May 2016. A logistic regression model and two linear models were used to analyze the effects of breed, housing type, age at herd entry, and seed stock herd on boar removal reason and BHLM, respectively. Boar breed and the age at herd entry had significant effects on the removal reasons (P linear models (with or without removal reason including) showed boars raised individually in stalls exhibited shorter BHLM than those raised in pens (P introduction. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Logistic Regression Modeling of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources for Integrated Circuits

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gravier, Michael

1999-01-01

.... The research identified logistic regression as a powerful tool for analysis of DMSMS and further developed twenty models attempting to identify the "best" way to model and predict DMSMS using logistic regression...

Modelling female fertility traits in beef cattle using linear and non-linear models.

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Naya, H; Peñagaricano, F; Urioste, J I

2017-06-01

Female fertility traits are key components of the profitability of beef cattle production. However, these traits are difficult and expensive to measure, particularly under extensive pastoral conditions, and consequently, fertility records are in general scarce and somehow incomplete. Moreover, fertility traits are usually dominated by the effects of herd-year environment, and it is generally assumed that relatively small margins are kept for genetic improvement. New ways of modelling genetic variation in these traits are needed. Inspired in the methodological developments made by Prof. Daniel Gianola and co-workers, we assayed linear (Gaussian), Poisson, probit (threshold), censored Poisson and censored Gaussian models to three different kinds of endpoints, namely calving success (CS), number of days from first calving (CD) and number of failed oestrus (FE). For models involving FE and CS, non-linear models overperformed their linear counterparts. For models derived from CD, linear versions displayed better adjustment than the non-linear counterparts. Non-linear models showed consistently higher estimates of heritability and repeatability in all cases (h 2  linear models; h 2  > 0.23 and r > 0.24, for non-linear models). While additive and permanent environment effects showed highly favourable correlations between all models (>0.789), consistency in selecting the 10% best sires showed important differences, mainly amongst the considered endpoints (FE, CS and CD). In consequence, endpoints should be considered as modelling different underlying genetic effects, with linear models more appropriate to describe CD and non-linear models better for FE and CS. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

On the analysis of clonogenic survival data: Statistical alternatives to the linear-quadratic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkel, Steffen; Belka, Claus; Lauber, Kirsten

2016-01-01

The most frequently used method to quantitatively describe the response to ionizing irradiation in terms of clonogenic survival is the linear-quadratic (LQ) model. In the LQ model, the logarithm of the surviving fraction is regressed linearly on the radiation dose by means of a second-degree polynomial. The ratio of the estimated parameters for the linear and quadratic term, respectively, represents the dose at which both terms have the same weight in the abrogation of clonogenic survival. This ratio is known as the α/β ratio. However, there are plausible scenarios in which the α/β ratio fails to sufficiently reflect differences between dose-response curves, for example when curves with similar α/β ratio but different overall steepness are being compared. In such situations, the interpretation of the LQ model is severely limited. Colony formation assays were performed in order to measure the clonogenic survival of nine human pancreatic cancer cell lines and immortalized human pancreatic ductal epithelial cells upon irradiation at 0-10 Gy. The resulting dataset was subjected to LQ regression and non-linear log-logistic regression. Dimensionality reduction of the data was performed by cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Both the LQ model and the non-linear log-logistic regression model resulted in accurate approximations of the observed dose-response relationships in the dataset of clonogenic survival. However, in contrast to the LQ model the non-linear regression model allowed the discrimination of curves with different overall steepness but similar α/β ratio and revealed an improved goodness-of-fit. Additionally, the estimated parameters in the non-linear model exhibit a more direct interpretation than the α/β ratio. Dimensionality reduction of clonogenic survival data by means of cluster analysis was shown to be a useful tool for classifying radioresistant and sensitive cell lines. More quantitatively, principal component analysis allowed

Predictive ability of logistic regression, auto-logistic regression and neural network models in empirical land-use change modeling: a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lin, Y.P.; Chu, H.J.; Wu, C.F.; Verburg, P.H.

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to compare the abilities of logistic, auto-logistic and artificial neural network (ANN) models for quantifying the relationships between land uses and their drivers. In addition, the application of the results obtained by the three techniques is tested in a dynamic

Model building strategy for logistic regression: purposeful selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhongheng

2016-03-01

Logistic regression is one of the most commonly used models to account for confounders in medical literature. The article introduces how to perform purposeful selection model building strategy with R. I stress on the use of likelihood ratio test to see whether deleting a variable will have significant impact on model fit. A deleted variable should also be checked for whether it is an important adjustment of remaining covariates. Interaction should be checked to disentangle complex relationship between covariates and their synergistic effect on response variable. Model should be checked for the goodness-of-fit (GOF). In other words, how the fitted model reflects the real data. Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF test is the most widely used for logistic regression model.

Prediction of Depression in Cancer Patients With Different Classification Criteria, Linear Discriminant Analysis versus Logistic Regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Shayan, Zahra; Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser; Shayan, Leila; Naseri, Parisa

2015-11-03

Logistic regression (LR) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) are two popular statistical models for prediction of group membership. Although they are very similar, the LDA makes more assumptions about the data. When categorical and continuous variables used simultaneously, the optimal choice between the two models is questionable. In most studies, classification error (CE) is used to discriminate between subjects in several groups, but this index is not suitable to predict the accuracy of the outcome. The present study compared LR and LDA models using classification indices. This cross-sectional study selected 243 cancer patients. Sample sets of different sizes (n = 50, 100, 150, 200, 220) were randomly selected and the CE, B, and Q classification indices were calculated by the LR and LDA models. CE revealed the a lack of superiority for one model over the other, but the results showed that LR performed better than LDA for the B and Q indices in all situations. No significant effect for sample size on CE was noted for selection of an optimal model. Assessment of the accuracy of prediction of real data indicated that the B and Q indices are appropriate for selection of an optimal model. The results of this study showed that LR performs better in some cases and LDA in others when based on CE. The CE index is not appropriate for classification, although the B and Q indices performed better and offered more efficient criteria for comparison and discrimination between groups.

Model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error with application to logistic regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Buonaccorsi, John P; Romeo, Giovanni; Thoresen, Magne

2018-03-01

When fitting regression models, measurement error in any of the predictors typically leads to biased coefficients and incorrect inferences. A plethora of methods have been proposed to correct for this. Obtaining standard errors and confidence intervals using the corrected estimators can be challenging and, in addition, there is concern about remaining bias in the corrected estimators. The bootstrap, which is one option to address these problems, has received limited attention in this context. It has usually been employed by simply resampling observations, which, while suitable in some situations, is not always formally justified. In addition, the simple bootstrap does not allow for estimating bias in non-linear models, including logistic regression. Model-based bootstrapping, which can potentially estimate bias in addition to being robust to the original sampling or whether the measurement error variance is constant or not, has received limited attention. However, it faces challenges that are not present in handling regression models with no measurement error. This article develops new methods for model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error in logistic regression with replicate measures. The methodology is illustrated using two examples, and a series of simulations are carried out to assess and compare the simple and model-based bootstrap methods, as well as other standard methods. While not always perfect, the model-based approaches offer some distinct improvements over the other methods. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Threshold Dynamics of a Huanglongbing Model with Logistic Growth in Periodic Environments

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Jianping Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze the impact of seasonal activity of psyllid on the dynamics of Huanglongbing (HLB infection. A new model about HLB transmission with Logistic growth in psyllid insect vectors and periodic coefficients has been investigated. It is shown that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction number R0 which is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. If R0 1, then the disease persists. Numerical values of parameters of the model are evaluated taken from the literatures. Furthermore, numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and the sensitive analysis on the basic reproduction number to the changes of average and amplitude values of the recruitment function of citrus are shown. Finally, some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HLB are given.

Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

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Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

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Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

2007-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

Linear models with R

CERN Document Server

Faraway, Julian J

2014-01-01

A Hands-On Way to Learning Data AnalysisPart of the core of statistics, linear models are used to make predictions and explain the relationship between the response and the predictors. Understanding linear models is crucial to a broader competence in the practice of statistics. Linear Models with R, Second Edition explains how to use linear models in physical science, engineering, social science, and business applications. The book incorporates several improvements that reflect how the world of R has greatly expanded since the publication of the first edition.New to the Second EditionReorganiz

A Study on Intelligent User-Centric Logistics Service Model Using Ontology

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Saraswathi Sivamani

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Much research has been undergone in the smart logistics environment for the prompt delivery of the product in the right place at the right time. Most of the services were based on time management, routing technique, and location based services. The services in the recent logistics environment aim for situation based logistics service centered around the user by utilizing various information technologies such as mobile devices, computer systems, and GPS. This paper proposes a smart logistics service model for providing user-centric intelligent logistics service by utilizing smartphones in a smart environment. We also develop an OWL based ontology model for the smart logistics for the better understanding among the context information. In addition to basic delivery information, the proposed service model makes use of the location and situation information of the delivery vehicle and user, to draw the route information according to the user’s requirement. With the increase of internet usage, the real-time situations are received which helps to create a more reliable relationship, owing to the Internet of Things. Through this service model, it is possible to engage in the development of various IT and logistics convergence services based on situation information between the deliverer and user which occurs in real time.

Moment Closure for the Stochastic Logistic Model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Singh, Abhyudai; Hespanha, Joao P

2006-01-01

..., which we refer to as the moment closure function. In this paper, a systematic procedure for constructing moment closure functions of arbitrary order is presented for the stochastic logistic model...

Logistic regression models

CERN Document Server

Hilbe, Joseph M

2009-01-01

This book really does cover everything you ever wanted to know about logistic regression … with updates available on the author's website. Hilbe, a former national athletics champion, philosopher, and expert in astronomy, is a master at explaining statistical concepts and methods. Readers familiar with his other expository work will know what to expect-great clarity.The book provides considerable detail about all facets of logistic regression. No step of an argument is omitted so that the book will meet the needs of the reader who likes to see everything spelt out, while a person familiar with some of the topics has the option to skip "obvious" sections. The material has been thoroughly road-tested through classroom and web-based teaching. … The focus is on helping the reader to learn and understand logistic regression. The audience is not just students meeting the topic for the first time, but also experienced users. I believe the book really does meet the author's goal … .-Annette J. Dobson, Biometric...

A mathematical model for optimization of an integrated network logistic design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lida Tafaghodi

2011-10-01

Full Text Available In this study, the integrated forward/reverse logistics network is investigated, and a capacitated multi-stage, multi-product logistics network design is proposed by formulating a generalized logistics network problem into a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP for minimizing the total cost of the closed-loop supply chain network. Moreover, the proposed model is solved by using optimization solver, which provides the decisions related to the facility location problem, optimum quantity of shipped product, and facility capacity. Numerical results show the power of the proposed MINLP model to avoid th sub-optimality caused by separate design of forward and reverse logistics networks and to handle various transportation modes and periodic demand.

Linear and Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Their Applications

CERN Document Server

Jiang, Jiming

2007-01-01

This book covers two major classes of mixed effects models, linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models, and it presents an up-to-date account of theory and methods in analysis of these models as well as their applications in various fields. The book offers a systematic approach to inference about non-Gaussian linear mixed models. Furthermore, it has included recently developed methods, such as mixed model diagnostics, mixed model selection, and jackknife method in the context of mixed models. The book is aimed at students, researchers and other practitioners who are interested

Logistics Chains in Freight Transport Modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Davydenko, I.Y.

2015-01-01

The flow of trade is not equal to transport flows, mainly due to the fact that warehouses and distribution facilities are used as intermediary stops on the way from production locations to the points of consumption or further rework of goods. This thesis proposes a logistics chain model, which

Application of Tecnomatix Plant Simulation for Modeling Production and Logistics Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Siderska

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The main objective of the article was to present the possibilities and examples of using Tecnomatix Plant Simulation (by Siemens to simulate the production and logistics processes. This tool allows to simulate discrete events and create digital models of logistic systems (e.g. production, optimize the operation of production plants, production lines, as well as individual logistics processes. The review of implementations of Tecnomatix Plant Simulation for modeling processes in production engineering and logistics was conducted and a few selected examples of simulations were presented. The author’s future studies are going to focus on simulation of production and logistic processes and their optimization with the use of genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks.

Model of the naval base logistic interoperability within the multinational operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bohdan Pac

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The paper concerns the model of the naval base logistics interoperability within the multinational operations conducted at sea by NATO or EU nations. The model includes the set of logistic requirements that NATO and EU expect from the contributing nations within the area of the logistic support provided to the forces operating out of the home bases. Model may reflect the scheme configuration, the set of requirements and its mathematical description for the naval base supporting multinational forces within maritime operations.

Use of multivariate extensions of generalized linear models in the analysis of data from clinical trials

OpenAIRE

ALONSO ABAD, Ariel; Rodriguez, O.; TIBALDI, Fabian; CORTINAS ABRAHANTES, Jose

2002-01-01

In medical studies the categorical endpoints are quite often. Even though nowadays some models for handling this multicategorical variables have been developed their use is not common. This work shows an application of the Multivariate Generalized Linear Models to the analysis of Clinical Trials data. After a theoretical introduction models for ordinal and nominal responses are applied and the main results are discussed. multivariate analysis; multivariate logistic regression; multicategor...

Determining factors influencing survival of breast cancer by fuzzy logistic regression model.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikbakht, Roya; Bahrampour, Abbas

2017-01-01

Fuzzy logistic regression model can be used for determining influential factors of disease. This study explores the important factors of actual predictive survival factors of breast cancer's patients. We used breast cancer data which collected by cancer registry of Kerman University of Medical Sciences during the period of 2000-2007. The variables such as morphology, grade, age, and treatments (surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy) were applied in the fuzzy logistic regression model. Performance of model was determined in terms of mean degree of membership (MDM). The study results showed that almost 41% of patients were in neoplasm and malignant group and more than two-third of them were still alive after 5-year follow-up. Based on the fuzzy logistic model, the most important factors influencing survival were chemotherapy, morphology, and radiotherapy, respectively. Furthermore, the MDM criteria show that the fuzzy logistic regression have a good fit on the data (MDM = 0.86). Fuzzy logistic regression model showed that chemotherapy is more important than radiotherapy in survival of patients with breast cancer. In addition, another ability of this model is calculating possibilistic odds of survival in cancer patients. The results of this study can be applied in clinical research. Furthermore, there are few studies which applied the fuzzy logistic models. Furthermore, we recommend using this model in various research areas.

Enterprise games: creating and implementing a model to simulate logistics operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alander Ornellas Ornellas

2008-07-01

Full Text Available This work proposes an enterprise game model to simulate the main logistics operations in a supply chain. The need of a simple tool, but well structured and able to create a dynamic learning environment without making it too complex motivated this study and development. The work begins with a comparative analysis between the main reference models about enterprise logistics, included in the bibliography related to best practices in logistics decision-making. Then, concepts of simulation and games are described, its interrelations, characteristics and importance as learning method. The definition of the best practices is, then, used to guide the construction of the main characteristics for the proposed model. The results obtained show the efficacy of the model as a tool capable of creating a dynamic environment for learning purposes to complement traditional teaching techniques. Key-words: Enterprise Games, Supply Chain, Logistics, Simulation, Learning.

Research on support effectiveness modeling and simulating of aviation materiel autonomic logistics system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yan; Zhou, Yang; Yuan, Kai; Jia, Zhiyu; Li, Shuo

2018-05-01

Aiming at the demonstration of autonomic logistics system to be used at the new generation of aviation materiel in our country, the modeling and simulating method of aviation materiel support effectiveness considering autonomic logistics are studied. Firstly, this paper introduced the idea of JSF autonomic logistics and analyzed the influence of autonomic logistics on support effectiveness from aspects of reliability, false alarm rate, troubleshooting time, and support delay time and maintenance level. On this basis, the paper studies the modeling and simulating methods of support effectiveness considering autonomic logistics, and puts forward the maintenance support simulation process considering autonomic logistics. Finally, taking the typical aviation materiel as an example, this paper analyzes and verifies the above-mentioned support effectiveness modeling and simulating method of aviation materiel considering autonomic logistics.

Dimension of linear models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høskuldsson, Agnar

1996-01-01

Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four of these cri......Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four...... the basic problems in determining the dimension of linear models. Then each of the eight measures are treated. The results are illustrated by examples....

Extending the linear model with R generalized linear, mixed effects and nonparametric regression models

CERN Document Server

Faraway, Julian J

2005-01-01

Linear models are central to the practice of statistics and form the foundation of a vast range of statistical methodologies. Julian J. Faraway''s critically acclaimed Linear Models with R examined regression and analysis of variance, demonstrated the different methods available, and showed in which situations each one applies. Following in those footsteps, Extending the Linear Model with R surveys the techniques that grow from the regression model, presenting three extensions to that framework: generalized linear models (GLMs), mixed effect models, and nonparametric regression models. The author''s treatment is thoroughly modern and covers topics that include GLM diagnostics, generalized linear mixed models, trees, and even the use of neural networks in statistics. To demonstrate the interplay of theory and practice, throughout the book the author weaves the use of the R software environment to analyze the data of real examples, providing all of the R commands necessary to reproduce the analyses. All of the ...

Radiosurgery and the double logistic product formula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flickinger, J.C.; Steiner, L.

1990-01-01

The double logistic product formula is proposed as a method for predicting the probability of developing brain necrosis after high dose irradiation of small target volumes as used in stereotactic radiosurgery. Dose-response data observed for the production of localized radiation necreosis for treating intractable pain with the original Leksell gamma unit were used to choose the best fitting parameters for the double logistic product formula. This model can be used with either exponential or linear quadratic formulas to account for the effects of dose, fractionation and time in addition to volume. Dose-response predictions for stereotactic radiosurgery with different sized collimators are presented. (author). 41 refs.; 5 figs.; 1 tab

A primer on linear models

CERN Document Server

Monahan, John F

2008-01-01

Preface Examples of the General Linear Model Introduction One-Sample Problem Simple Linear Regression Multiple Regression One-Way ANOVA First Discussion The Two-Way Nested Model Two-Way Crossed Model Analysis of Covariance Autoregression Discussion The Linear Least Squares Problem The Normal Equations The Geometry of Least Squares Reparameterization Gram-Schmidt Orthonormalization Estimability and Least Squares Estimators Assumptions for the Linear Mean Model Confounding, Identifiability, and Estimability Estimability and Least Squares Estimators F

Cloud Shade by Dynamic Logistic Modeling

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brabec, Marek; Badescu, V.; Paulescu, M.

2014-01-01

Roč. 41, č. 6 (2014), s. 1174-1188 ISSN 0266-4763 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : clouds * random process * sunshine number * Markovian logistic regression model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.417, year: 2014

Modelling of Processes of Logistics in Cyberspace Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konečný Jiří

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of this contribution is especially to familiarize experts in various fields with the need for a new approach to the system-defined model and modelling of processes in the engineering practice and the expression of some state variables' possibilities for the modelling of real-world systems with regard to the highly dynamic development of structures and to the behaviour of systems of logistics. Thus, in this contribution, the necessity of making full use of cybernetics as a field for the management and communication of information is expressed, and also the environment of cybernetics as a much needed cybernetic realm (cyberspace, determining the steady state between cyber-attacks and cyber-defence as a modern knowledge-based potential in general and specifically of logistics in cyber security. Connected with this process is the very important area of lifelong training of experts in the dynamic world of science and technology (that is, also in a social system which is also expressed here briefly, and also the cyber and information security, all of which falls under the cyberspace of new perspective electronic learning (e-learning with the use of modern laboratories with new effects also for future possibilities of process modelling of artificial intelligence (AI with a perspective of mass use of UAVs in logistics.

A Review on Quantitative Models for Sustainable Food Logistics Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Soysal

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The last two decades food logistics systems have seen the transition from a focus on traditional supply chain management to food supply chain management, and successively, to sustainable food supply chain management. The main aim of this study is to identify key logistical aims in these three phases and analyse currently available quantitative models to point out modelling challenges in sustainable food logistics management (SFLM. A literature review on quantitative studies is conducted and also qualitative studies are consulted to understand the key logistical aims more clearly and to identify relevant system scope issues. Results show that research on SFLM has been progressively developing according to the needs of the food industry. However, the intrinsic characteristics of food products and processes have not yet been handled properly in the identified studies. The majority of the works reviewed have not contemplated on sustainability problems, apart from a few recent studies. Therefore, the study concludes that new and advanced quantitative models are needed that take specific SFLM requirements from practice into consideration to support business decisions and capture food supply chain dynamics.

Application of Hierarchical Linear Models/Linear Mixed-Effects Models in School Effectiveness Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ker, H. W.

2014-01-01

Multilevel data are very common in educational research. Hierarchical linear models/linear mixed-effects models (HLMs/LMEs) are often utilized to analyze multilevel data nowadays. This paper discusses the problems of utilizing ordinary regressions for modeling multilevel educational data, compare the data analytic results from three regression…

Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brabec, Marek; Badescu, V.; Paulescu, M.

2013-01-01

Roč. 120, č. 1-2 (2013), s. 61-71 ISSN 0177-7971 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1030915 Keywords : logistic regression * Markov model * sunshine number Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.245, year: 2013

Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th...

A Logistic Regression Based Auto Insurance Rate-Making Model Designed for the Insurance Rate Reform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengmin Duan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Using a generalized linear model to determine the claim frequency of auto insurance is a key ingredient in non-life insurance research. Among auto insurance rate-making models, there are very few considering auto types. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a model that takes auto types into account by making an innovative use of the auto burden index. Based on this model and data from a Chinese insurance company, we built a clustering model that classifies auto insurance rates into three risk levels. The claim frequency and the claim costs are fitted to select a better loss distribution. Then the Logistic Regression model is employed to fit the claim frequency, with the auto burden index considered. Three key findings can be concluded from our study. First, more than 80% of the autos with an auto burden index of 20 or higher belong to the highest risk level. Secondly, the claim frequency is better fitted using the Poisson distribution, however the claim cost is better fitted using the Gamma distribution. Lastly, based on the AIC criterion, the claim frequency is more adequately represented by models that consider the auto burden index than those do not. It is believed that insurance policy recommendations that are based on Generalized linear models (GLM can benefit from our findings.

Short-Run Asset Selection using a Logistic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walter Gonçalves Junior

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique perceptions. This paper aims to investigate to what extent some of the most notorious indicators have discriminatory power to select stocks, and if it is feasible with such variables to build models that could anticipate those with good performance. In order to do that, logistical regressions were conducted with stocks traded at Bovespa using the selected indicators as explanatory variables. Investigated in this study were the outputs of Bovespa Index, liquidity, the Sharpe Ratio, ROE, MB, size and age evidenced to be significant predictors. Also examined were half-year, logistical models, which were adjusted in order to check the potential acceptable discriminatory power for the asset selection.

Evolution dynamics modeling and simulation of logistics enterprise's core competence based on service innovation

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Bo; Tong, Yuting

2017-04-01

With the rapid development of economy, the development of logistics enterprises in China is also facing a huge challenge, especially the logistics enterprises generally lack of core competitiveness, and service innovation awareness is not strong. Scholars in the process of studying the core competitiveness of logistics enterprises are mainly from the perspective of static stability, not from the perspective of dynamic evolution to explore. So the author analyzes the influencing factors and the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises, using the method of system dynamics to study the cause and effect of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, construct a system dynamics model of evolution of core competence logistics enterprises, which can be simulated by vensim PLE. The analysis for the effectiveness and sensitivity of simulation model indicates the model can be used as the fitting of the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises and reveal the process and mechanism of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, and provide management strategies for improving the core competence of logistics enterprises. The construction and operation of computer simulation model offers a kind of effective method for studying the evolution of logistics enterprise core competence.

Guidance for the utility of linear models in meta-analysis of genetic association studies of binary phenotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, James P; Mahajan, Anubha; Morris, Andrew P

2017-02-01

Linear mixed models are increasingly used for the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of binary phenotypes because they can efficiently and robustly account for population stratification and relatedness through inclusion of random effects for a genetic relationship matrix. However, the utility of linear (mixed) models in the context of meta-analysis of GWAS of binary phenotypes has not been previously explored. In this investigation, we present simulations to compare the performance of linear and logistic regression models under alternative weighting schemes in a fixed-effects meta-analysis framework, considering designs that incorporate variable case-control imbalance, confounding factors and population stratification. Our results demonstrate that linear models can be used for meta-analysis of GWAS of binary phenotypes, without loss of power, even in the presence of extreme case-control imbalance, provided that one of the following schemes is used: (i) effective sample size weighting of Z-scores or (ii) inverse-variance weighting of allelic effect sizes after conversion onto the log-odds scale. Our conclusions thus provide essential recommendations for the development of robust protocols for meta-analysis of binary phenotypes with linear models.

From spiking neuron models to linear-nonlinear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostojic, Srdjan; Brunel, Nicolas

2011-01-20

Neurons transform time-varying inputs into action potentials emitted stochastically at a time dependent rate. The mapping from current input to output firing rate is often represented with the help of phenomenological models such as the linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade, in which the output firing rate is estimated by applying to the input successively a linear temporal filter and a static non-linear transformation. These simplified models leave out the biophysical details of action potential generation. It is not a priori clear to which extent the input-output mapping of biophysically more realistic, spiking neuron models can be reduced to a simple linear-nonlinear cascade. Here we investigate this question for the leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) and conductance-based Wang-Buzsáki models in presence of background synaptic activity. We exploit available analytic results for these models to determine the corresponding linear filter and static non-linearity in a parameter-free form. We show that the obtained functions are identical to the linear filter and static non-linearity determined using standard reverse correlation analysis. We then quantitatively compare the output of the corresponding linear-nonlinear cascade with numerical simulations of spiking neurons, systematically varying the parameters of input signal and background noise. We find that the LN cascade provides accurate estimates of the firing rates of spiking neurons in most of parameter space. For the EIF and Wang-Buzsáki models, we show that the LN cascade can be reduced to a firing rate model, the timescale of which we determine analytically. Finally we introduce an adaptive timescale rate model in which the timescale of the linear filter depends on the instantaneous firing rate. This model leads to highly accurate estimates of instantaneous firing rates.

Standards for Standardized Logistic Regression Coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Menard, Scott

2011-01-01

Standardized coefficients in logistic regression analysis have the same utility as standardized coefficients in linear regression analysis. Although there has been no consensus on the best way to construct standardized logistic regression coefficients, there is now sufficient evidence to suggest a single best approach to the construction of a…

Impact of Disturbing Factors on Cooperation in Logistics Outsourcing Performance: The Empirical Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreja Križman

2010-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present the research results of a study conducted in the Slovene logistics market of conflicts and opportunism as disturbing factors while examining their impact on cooperation in logistics outsourcing performance. Relationship variables are proposed that directly or indirectly affect logistics performance and conceptualize the hypotheses based on causal linkages for the constructs. On the basis of extant literature and new argumentations that are derived from in-depth interviews of logistics experts, including providers and customers, the measurement and structural models are empirically analyzed. Existing measurement scales for the constructs are slightly modified for this analysis. Purification testing and measurement for validity and reliability are performed. Multivariate statistical methods are utilized and hypotheses are tested. The results show that conflicts have a significantly negative impact on cooperation between customers and logistics service providers (LSPs, while opportunism does not play an important role in these relationships. The observed antecedents of logistics outsourcing performance in the model account for 58.4% of the variance of the goal achievement and 36.5% of the variance of the exceeded goal. KEYWORDS: logistics outsourcing performance; logistics customer–provider relationships; conflicts and cooperation in logistics outsourcing; PLS path modelling

Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Afonso

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure.  Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the

Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afonso, Paulo; Santana, Alex

2016-01-01

Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the logistics function which

Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Afonso, Paulo; Santana, Alex

2016-07-01

Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the logistics function which

Hybrid Message-Embedded Cipher Using Logistic Map

OpenAIRE

Mishra, Mina; Mankar, V. H.

2012-01-01

The proposed hybrid message embedded scheme consists of hill cipher combined with message embedded chaotic scheme. Message-embedded scheme using non-linear feedback shift register as non-linear function and 1-D logistic map as chaotic map is modified, analyzed and tested for avalanche property and strength against known plaintext attack and brute-force attack. Parameter of logistic map acts as a secret key. As we know that the minimum key space to resist brute-force attack is 2100, and it is ...

Empirical Study of E-logistics System Based on Tibet Logistics Industry

OpenAIRE

Liu, Yu

2013-01-01

With the rapid growth of E-logistics in the global logistics industry, it is important to get insight into E-logistics system in Chinese logistics industry. Regarding the current situation of E-logistics of Chinese logistics industry, there are still many problems to be concerned and resolved. This paper will review the concepts and theoretical background of E-logistics System from previous researches. After acknowledging the essential issues on E-logistics System, a research model is designe...

A development of logistics management models for the Space Transportation System

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo, M. J.; Jacobsen, S. E.; Abell, J. B.; Lippiatt, T. F.

1983-01-01

A new analytic queueing approach was described which relates stockage levels, repair level decisions, and the project network schedule of prelaunch operations directly to the probability distribution of the space transportation system launch delay. Finite source population and limited repair capability were additional factors included in this logistics management model developed specifically for STS maintenance requirements. Data presently available to support logistics decisions were based on a comparability study of heavy aircraft components. A two-phase program is recommended by which NASA would implement an integrated data collection system, assemble logistics data from previous STS flights, revise extant logistics planning and resource requirement parameters using Bayes-Lin techniques, and adjust for uncertainty surrounding logistics systems performance parameters. The implementation of these recommendations can be expected to deliver more cost-effective logistics support.

Linear Models

CERN Document Server

Searle, Shayle R

2012-01-01

This 1971 classic on linear models is once again available--as a Wiley Classics Library Edition. It features material that can be understood by any statistician who understands matrix algebra and basic statistical methods.

Understanding logistic regression analysis

OpenAIRE

Sperandei, Sandro

2014-01-01

Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using ex...

Dynamic Linear Models with R

CERN Document Server

Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

2009-01-01

State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

Modelling and Predicting Backstroke Start Performance Using Non-Linear and Linear Models.

Science.gov (United States)

de Jesus, Karla; Ayala, Helon V H; de Jesus, Kelly; Coelho, Leandro Dos S; Medeiros, Alexandre I A; Abraldes, José A; Vaz, Mário A P; Fernandes, Ricardo J; Vilas-Boas, João Paulo

2018-03-01

Our aim was to compare non-linear and linear mathematical model responses for backstroke start performance prediction. Ten swimmers randomly completed eight 15 m backstroke starts with feet over the wedge, four with hands on the highest horizontal and four on the vertical handgrip. Swimmers were videotaped using a dual media camera set-up, with the starts being performed over an instrumented block with four force plates. Artificial neural networks were applied to predict 5 m start time using kinematic and kinetic variables and to determine the accuracy of the mean absolute percentage error. Artificial neural networks predicted start time more robustly than the linear model with respect to changing training to the validation dataset for the vertical handgrip (3.95 ± 1.67 vs. 5.92 ± 3.27%). Artificial neural networks obtained a smaller mean absolute percentage error than the linear model in the horizontal (0.43 ± 0.19 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19%) and vertical handgrip (0.45 ± 0.19 vs. 1.38 ± 0.30%) using all input data. The best artificial neural network validation revealed a smaller mean absolute error than the linear model for the horizontal (0.007 vs. 0.04 s) and vertical handgrip (0.01 vs. 0.03 s). Artificial neural networks should be used for backstroke 5 m start time prediction due to the quite small differences among the elite level performances.

Risk matrix model applied to the outsourcing of logistics' activities

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Fouad Jawab

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes the application of the risk matrix model in the field of logistics outsourcing. Such an application can serve as the basis for decision making regarding the conduct of a risk management in the logistics outsourcing process and allow its prevention. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on the risk management of logistics outsourcing in the field of the retail sector in Morocco. The authors identify all possible risks and then classify and prioritize them using the Risk Matrix Model. Finally, we have come to four possible decisions for the identified risks. The analysis was made possible through interviews and discussions with the heads of departments and agents who are directly involved in each outsourced activity. Findings and Originality/value: It is possible to improve the risk matrix model by proposing more personalized prevention measures according to each company that operates in the mass-market retailing. Originality/value: This study is the only one made in the process of logistics outsourcing in the retail sector in Morocco through Label’vie as a case study. First, we had identified as thorough as we could all possible risks, then we applied the Risk Matrix Model to sort them out in an ascending order of importance and criticality. As a result, we could hand out to the decision-makers the mapping for an effective control of risks and a better guiding of the process of risk management.

One-dimensional map-based neuron model: A logistic modification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mesbah, Samineh; Moghtadaei, Motahareh; Hashemi Golpayegani, Mohammad Reza; Towhidkhah, Farzad

2014-01-01

A one-dimensional map is proposed for modeling some of the neuronal activities, including different spiking and bursting behaviors. The model is obtained by applying some modifications on the well-known Logistic map and is named the Modified and Confined Logistic (MCL) model. Map-based neuron models are known as phenomenological models and recently, they are widely applied in modeling tasks due to their computational efficacy. Most of discrete map-based models involve two variables representing the slow-fast prototype. There are also some one-dimensional maps, which can replicate some of the neuronal activities. However, the existence of four bifurcation parameters in the MCL model gives rise to reproduction of spiking behavior with control over the frequency of the spikes, and imitation of chaotic and regular bursting responses concurrently. It is also shown that the proposed model has the potential to reproduce more realistic bursting activity by adding a second variable. Moreover the MCL model is able to replicate considerable number of experimentally observed neuronal responses introduced in Izhikevich (2004) [23]. Some analytical and numerical analyses of the MCL model dynamics are presented to explain the emersion of complex dynamics from this one-dimensional map

Piecewise Linear-Linear Latent Growth Mixture Models with Unknown Knots

Science.gov (United States)

Kohli, Nidhi; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Hancock, Gregory R.

2013-01-01

Latent growth curve models with piecewise functions are flexible and useful analytic models for investigating individual behaviors that exhibit distinct phases of development in observed variables. As an extension of this framework, this study considers a piecewise linear-linear latent growth mixture model (LGMM) for describing segmented change of…

Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Marc; Bock, Ariella; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

2015-09-01

Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (Plogistics data are strongly correlated with public-sector prevalence rates for short-acting methods, demonstrating the quality of current logistics data and their ability to provide relatively accurate prevalence estimates. The

An integrative fuzzy Kansei engineering and Kano model for logistics services

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Hartono, M.; Chuan, T. K.; Prayogo, D. N.; Santoso, A.

2017-11-01

Nowadays, customer emotional needs (known as Kansei) in product and especially in services become a major concern. One of the emerging services is the logistics services. In obtaining a global competitive advantage, logistics services should understand and satisfy their customer affective impressions (Kansei). How to capture, model and analyze the customer emotions has been well structured by Kansei Engineering, equipped with Kano model to strengthen its methodology. However, its methodology lacks of the dynamics of customer perception. More specifically, there is a criticism of perceived scores on user preferences, in both perceived service quality and Kansei response, whether they represent an exact numerical value. Thus, this paper is proposed to discuss an approach of fuzzy Kansei in logistics service experiences. A case study in IT-based logistics services involving 100 subjects has been conducted. Its findings including the service gaps accompanied with prioritized improvement initiatives are discussed.

A Theoretic Model of Transport Logistics Demand

OpenAIRE

Natalija Jolić; Nikolina Brnjac; Ivica Oreb

2006-01-01

Concerning transport logistics as relation between transportand integrated approaches to logistics, some transport and logisticsspecialists consider the tenn tautological. However,transport is one of the components of logistics, along with inventories,resources, warehousing, infonnation and goods handling.Transport logistics considers wider commercial and operationalframeworks within which the flow of goods is plannedand managed. The demand for transport logistics services canbe valorised as ...

Visualization of logistic algorithm in Wilson model

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Glushchenko, A. S.; Rodin, V. A.; Sinegubov, S. V.

2018-05-01

Economic order quantity (EOQ), defined by the Wilson's model, is widely used at different stages of production and distribution of different products. It is useful for making decisions in the management of inventories, providing a more efficient business operation and thus bringing more economic benefits. There is a large amount of reference material and extensive computer shells that help solving various logistics problems. However, the use of large computer environments is not always justified and requires special user training. A tense supply schedule in a logistics model is optimal, if, and only if, the planning horizon coincides with the beginning of the next possible delivery. For all other possible planning horizons, this plan is not optimal. It is significant that when the planning horizon changes, the plan changes immediately throughout the entire supply chain. In this paper, an algorithm and a program for visualizing models of the optimal value of supplies and their number, depending on the magnitude of the planned horizon, have been obtained. The program allows one to trace (visually and quickly) all main parameters of the optimal plan on the charts. The results of the paper represent a part of the authors’ research work in the field of optimization of protection and support services of ports in the Russian North.

Business Process Modeling for Domain Outbound Logistics System: Analytic Perspective with BPMN 2.0

OpenAIRE

Khabbazi, Mahmood Reza; Hasan, M.K; Sulaiman, R; Shapi’i, A

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a generic"to-be" business processes model for domain highest-level outbound logistics system representing the possible alternative structure and behaviour of the system in respect to x-party logistics services applicable in Small-to-medium sized enterprises. The generic framework of outbound logistics model consists of one main modular system named as the Shipping System including five internal sub-systems of the shipping core, shipping requirement, First Party Logistics (...

SUPPLIES COSTS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY WITH APPLICATION OF MEASUREMENT MODEL OF LOGISTICS COSTS

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Ana Paula Ferreira Alves

2013-12-01

Full Text Available One of the main reasons for the difficulty in adopting an integrated method of calculation of logistics costs is still a lack of adequate information about costs. The management of the supply chain and identify its costs can provide information for their managers, with regard to decision making, generating competitive advantage. Some models of calculating logistics costs are proposed by Uelze (1974, Dias (1996, Goldratt (2002, Christopher (2007, Castiglioni (2009 and Borba & Gibbon (2009, with little disclosure of the results. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the costs of supplies, applying a measurement model of logistics costs. Methodologically, the study characterized as exploratory. The model applied pointed, in original condition, that about R$ 2.5 million were being applied in the process of management of supplies, with replacement costs and storage imbalance. Upgrading the company's data, it is possible obtain a 52% reduction in costs to replace and store supplies. Thus, the cost model applied to logistical supplies showed feasibility of implementation, as well as providing information to assist in management and decision-making in logistics supply.

Appropriate assessment of neighborhood effects on individual health: integrating random and fixed effects in multilevel logistic regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Klaus; Merlo, Juan

2005-01-01

The logistic regression model is frequently used in epidemiologic studies, yielding odds ratio or relative risk interpretations. Inspired by the theory of linear normal models, the logistic regression model has been extended to allow for correlated responses by introducing random effects. However......, the model does not inherit the interpretational features of the normal model. In this paper, the authors argue that the existing measures are unsatisfactory (and some of them are even improper) when quantifying results from multilevel logistic regression analyses. The authors suggest a measure...... of heterogeneity, the median odds ratio, that quantifies cluster heterogeneity and facilitates a direct comparison between covariate effects and the magnitude of heterogeneity in terms of well-known odds ratios. Quantifying cluster-level covariates in a meaningful way is a challenge in multilevel logistic...

A Cost Model for Integrated Logistic Support Activities

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M. Elena Nenni

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An Integrated Logistic Support (ILS service has the objective of improving a system’s efficiency and availability for the life cycle. The system constructor offers the service to the customer, and she becomes the Contractor Logistic Support (CLS. The aim of this paper is to propose an approach to support the CLS in the budget formulation. Specific goals of the model are the provision of the annual cost of ILS activities through a specific cost model and a comprehensive examination of expected benefits, costs and savings under alternative ILS strategies. A simple example derived from an industrial application is also provided to illustrate the idea. Scientific literature is lacking in the topic and documents from the military are just dealing with the issue of performance measurement. Moreover, they are obviously focused on the customer’s perspective. Other scientific papers are general and focused only on maintenance or life cycle management. The model developed in this paper approaches the problem from the perspective of the CLS, and it is specifically tailored on the main issues of an ILS service.

An inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems.

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Zhang, Yi Mei; Huang, Guo He; He, Li

2011-03-01

This paper proposed an inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems (IRWM). Waste managers, suppliers, industries and distributors were involved in strategic planning and operational execution through reverse logistics management. All the parameters were assumed to be intervals to quantify the uncertainties in the optimization process and solutions in IRWM. To solve this model, a piecewise interval programming was developed to deal with Min-Min functions in both objectives and constraints. The application of the model was illustrated through a classical municipal solid waste management case. With different cost parameters for landfill and the WTE, two scenarios were analyzed. The IRWM could reflect the dynamic and uncertain characteristics of MSW management systems, and could facilitate the generation of desired management plans. The model could be further advanced through incorporating methods of stochastic or fuzzy parameters into its framework. Design of multi-waste, multi-echelon, multi-uncertainty reverse logistics model for waste management network would also be preferred. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Agent Based Modelling Approach for Multi-Stakeholder Analysis of City Logistics Solutions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anand, N.

2015-01-01

This thesis presents a comprehensive framework for multi-stakeholder analysis of city logistics solutions using agent based modeling. The framework describes different stages for the systematic development of an agent based model for the city logistics domain. The framework includes a

Summary goodness-of-fit statistics for binary generalized linear models with noncanonical link functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Canary, Jana D; Blizzard, Leigh; Barry, Ronald P; Hosmer, David W; Quinn, Stephen J

2016-05-01

Generalized linear models (GLM) with a canonical logit link function are the primary modeling technique used to relate a binary outcome to predictor variables. However, noncanonical links can offer more flexibility, producing convenient analytical quantities (e.g., probit GLMs in toxicology) and desired measures of effect (e.g., relative risk from log GLMs). Many summary goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics exist for logistic GLM. Their properties make the development of GOF statistics relatively straightforward, but it can be more difficult under noncanonical links. Although GOF tests for logistic GLM with continuous covariates (GLMCC) have been applied to GLMCCs with log links, we know of no GOF tests in the literature specifically developed for GLMCCs that can be applied regardless of link function chosen. We generalize the Tsiatis GOF statistic originally developed for logistic GLMCCs, (TG), so that it can be applied under any link function. Further, we show that the algebraically related Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) and Pigeon-Heyse (J(2) ) statistics can be applied directly. In a simulation study, TG, HL, and J(2) were used to evaluate the fit of probit, log-log, complementary log-log, and log models, all calculated with a common grouping method. The TG statistic consistently maintained Type I error rates, while those of HL and J(2) were often lower than expected if terms with little influence were included. Generally, the statistics had similar power to detect an incorrect model. An exception occurred when a log GLMCC was incorrectly fit to data generated from a logistic GLMCC. In this case, TG had more power than HL or J(2) . © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/London School of Economics.

Applied logistic regression

CERN Document Server

Hosmer, David W; Sturdivant, Rodney X

2013-01-01

 A new edition of the definitive guide to logistic regression modeling for health science and other applications This thoroughly expanded Third Edition provides an easily accessible introduction to the logistic regression (LR) model and highlights the power of this model by examining the relationship between a dichotomous outcome and a set of covariables. Applied Logistic Regression, Third Edition emphasizes applications in the health sciences and handpicks topics that best suit the use of modern statistical software. The book provides readers with state-of-

Logistic regression for risk factor modelling in stuttering research.

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, Phil; Wu, Yaqionq

2013-06-01

To outline the uses of logistic regression and other statistical methods for risk factor analysis in the context of research on stuttering. The principles underlying the application of a logistic regression are illustrated, and the types of questions to which such a technique has been applied in the stuttering field are outlined. The assumptions and limitations of the technique are discussed with respect to existing stuttering research, and with respect to formulating appropriate research strategies to accommodate these considerations. Finally, some alternatives to the approach are briefly discussed. The way the statistical procedures are employed are demonstrated with some hypothetical data. Research into several practical issues concerning stuttering could benefit if risk factor modelling were used. Important examples are early diagnosis, prognosis (whether a child will recover or persist) and assessment of treatment outcome. After reading this article you will: (a) Summarize the situations in which logistic regression can be applied to a range of issues about stuttering; (b) Follow the steps in performing a logistic regression analysis; (c) Describe the assumptions of the logistic regression technique and the precautions that need to be checked when it is employed; (d) Be able to summarize its advantages over other techniques like estimation of group differences and simple regression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neck-focused panic attacks among Cambodian refugees; a logistic and linear regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinton, Devon E; Chhean, Dara; Pich, Vuth; Um, Khin; Fama, Jeanne M; Pollack, Mark H

2006-01-01

Consecutive Cambodian refugees attending a psychiatric clinic were assessed for the presence and severity of current--i.e., at least one episode in the last month--neck-focused panic. Among the whole sample (N=130), in a logistic regression analysis, the Anxiety Sensitivity Index (ASI; odds ratio=3.70) and the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS; odds ratio=2.61) significantly predicted the presence of current neck panic (NP). Among the neck panic patients (N=60), in the linear regression analysis, NP severity was significantly predicted by NP-associated flashbacks (beta=.42), NP-associated catastrophic cognitions (beta=.22), and CAPS score (beta=.28). Further analysis revealed the effect of the CAPS score to be significantly mediated (Sobel test [Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1173-1182]) by both NP-associated flashbacks and catastrophic cognitions. In the care of traumatized Cambodian refugees, NP severity, as well as NP-associated flashbacks and catastrophic cognitions, should be specifically assessed and treated.

A Solution to Separation and Multicollinearity in Multiple Logistic Regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Jianzhao; Gao, Sujuan

2008-10-01

In dementia screening tests, item selection for shortening an existing screening test can be achieved using multiple logistic regression. However, maximum likelihood estimates for such logistic regression models often experience serious bias or even non-existence because of separation and multicollinearity problems resulting from a large number of highly correlated items. Firth (1993, Biometrika, 80(1), 27-38) proposed a penalized likelihood estimator for generalized linear models and it was shown to reduce bias and the non-existence problems. The ridge regression has been used in logistic regression to stabilize the estimates in cases of multicollinearity. However, neither solves the problems for each other. In this paper, we propose a double penalized maximum likelihood estimator combining Firth's penalized likelihood equation with a ridge parameter. We present a simulation study evaluating the empirical performance of the double penalized likelihood estimator in small to moderate sample sizes. We demonstrate the proposed approach using a current screening data from a community-based dementia study.

A Note on the Item Information Function of the Four-Parameter Logistic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Magis, David

2013-01-01

This article focuses on four-parameter logistic (4PL) model as an extension of the usual three-parameter logistic (3PL) model with an upper asymptote possibly different from 1. For a given item with fixed item parameters, Lord derived the value of the latent ability level that maximizes the item information function under the 3PL model. The…

Resource Allocation Optimization Model of Collaborative Logistics Network Based on Bilevel Programming

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Xiao-feng Xu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Collaborative logistics network resource allocation can effectively meet the needs of customers. It can realize the overall benefit maximization of the logistics network and ensure that collaborative logistics network runs orderly at the time of creating value. Therefore, this article is based on the relationship of collaborative logistics network supplier, the transit warehouse, and sellers, and we consider the uncertainty of time to establish a bilevel programming model with random constraints and propose a genetic simulated annealing hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Numerical example shows that the method has stronger robustness and convergence; it can achieve collaborative logistics network resource allocation rationalization and optimization.

New methods to measure and model logistics and goods effects by the use of the CLG-DSS Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Jensen, Anders Vestergaard

2004-01-01

This paper concerns the assessment and modelling of so-called logistics and goods effects (LG-effects) as part of a wider economic analysis by use of the developed CLG-DSS model. The results presented are based an on-going study, Task 9 about evaluation modelling and decision support systems (DSS......) in the Centre for Logistics and Goods Transport (CLG) 2001-2005 funded by the Danish Council for Technical-Scientific Research (STVF). Within the area of research on logistics the interaction between logistics and transportation is of great relevance. Task 9 and other recent studies have found that several...... companies are taking account of logistics and transport by setting up, among other things, specific departments to improve their handling. Some aspects in the transport sector concerning goods movement and consequences have not so far got the attention they deserve. In CLG Task 9 four LG-effects have been...

Generalised Partially Linear Regression with Misclassified Data and an Application to Labour Market Transitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dlugosz, Stephan; Mammen, Enno; Wilke, Ralf

We consider the semiparametric generalised linear regression model which has mainstream empirical models such as the (partially) linear mean regression, logistic and multinomial regression as special cases. As an extension to related literature we allow a misclassified covariate to be interacted...

Simple, efficient estimators of treatment effects in randomized trials using generalized linear models to leverage baseline variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J

2010-04-01

Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation.

Simple, Efficient Estimators of Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials Using Generalized Linear Models to Leverage Baseline Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J.

2010-01-01

Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. PMID:20628636

Dimension of linear models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høskuldsson, Agnar

1996-01-01

Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four...... the basic problems in determining the dimension of linear models. Then each of the eight measures are treated. The results are illustrated by examples....... of these criteria are widely used ones, while the remaining four are ones derived from the H-principle of mathematical modeling. Many examples from practice show that the criteria derived from the H-principle function better than the known and popular criteria for the number of components. We shall briefly review...

Applying Fuzzy Multiobjective Integrated Logistics Model to Green Supply Chain Problems

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Chui-Yu Chiu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is attempting to explore the optimal way of supply chain management within the domain of environmental responsibility and concerns. The background of this research involves the issue of green supply chain management (GSCM and the concept of the multiobjective integrated logistics model. More specifically, in this paper, we suggest the fuzzy multiobjective integrated logistics model with the transportation cost and demand fuzziness to solve green supply chain problems in the uncertain environment which is illustrated via the detailed numerical example. Results and the sensitivity analysis of the numerical example indicate that when the governmental subsidy value increased the profits of the reverse chain also increased. The finding shows that the governmental subsidy policy could remain of significant influence for used-product reverse logistics chain.

Adjusting for Confounding in Early Postlaunch Settings: Going Beyond Logistic Regression Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Amand F; Klungel, Olaf H; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-01-01

Postlaunch data on medical treatments can be analyzed to explore adverse events or relative effectiveness in real-life settings. These analyses are often complicated by the number of potential confounders and the possibility of model misspecification. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performance of logistic regression, propensity score, disease risk score, and stabilized inverse probability weighting methods to adjust for confounding. Model misspecification was induced in the independent derivation dataset. We evaluated performance using relative bias confidence interval coverage of the true effect, among other metrics. At low events per coefficient (1.0 and 0.5), the logistic regression estimates had a large relative bias (greater than -100%). Bias of the disease risk score estimates was at most 13.48% and 18.83%. For the propensity score model, this was 8.74% and >100%, respectively. At events per coefficient of 1.0 and 0.5, inverse probability weighting frequently failed or reduced to a crude regression, resulting in biases of -8.49% and 24.55%. Coverage of logistic regression estimates became less than the nominal level at events per coefficient ≤5. For the disease risk score, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score, coverage became less than nominal at events per coefficient ≤2.5, ≤1.0, and ≤1.0, respectively. Bias of misspecified disease risk score models was 16.55%. In settings with low events/exposed subjects per coefficient, disease risk score methods can be useful alternatives to logistic regression models, especially when propensity score models cannot be used. Despite better performance of disease risk score methods than logistic regression and propensity score models in small events per coefficient settings, bias, and coverage still deviated from nominal.

Design logistics performance measurement model of automotive component industry for srengthening competitiveness of dealing AEC 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Amran, T. G.; Janitra Yose, Mindy

2018-03-01

As the free trade Asean Economic Community (AEC) causes the tougher competition, it is important that Indonesia’s automotive industry have high competitiveness as well. A model of logistics performance measurement was designed as an evaluation tool for automotive component companies to improve their logistics performance in order to compete in AEC. The design of logistics performance measurement model was based on the Logistics Scorecard perspectives, divided into two stages: identifying the logistics business strategy to get the KPI and arranging the model. 23 KPI was obtained. The measurement result can be taken into consideration of determining policies to improve the performance logistics competitiveness.

Ordinal Log-Linear Models for Contingency Tables

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Brzezińska Justyna

2016-12-01

Full Text Available A log-linear analysis is a method providing a comprehensive scheme to describe the association for categorical variables in a contingency table. The log-linear model specifies how the expected counts depend on the levels of the categorical variables for these cells and provide detailed information on the associations. The aim of this paper is to present theoretical, as well as empirical, aspects of ordinal log-linear models used for contingency tables with ordinal variables. We introduce log-linear models for ordinal variables: linear-by-linear association, row effect model, column effect model and RC Goodman’s model. Algorithm, advantages and disadvantages will be discussed in the paper. An empirical analysis will be conducted with the use of R.

Modeling e-logistics for urban B2C in Europe

OpenAIRE

Galván, Dante; Robusté Antón, Francesc; Estrada Romeu, Miguel Ángel; Campos Cacheda, Jose Magin

2005-01-01

Major cities need to carry out good delivery operations that coexist with the rest of urban functions. The efficiency in city organisation depends directly on the proper management of logistic networks. In this context, Urban Logistics is born to improve the efficiency in public facilities dealing with the organisation of supply networks, especially in urban freight transport networks. This paper quantitatively models supply chains in the vehicle routing problem with time windows, especially ...

Logistic map with memory from economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2017-01-01

A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

Modeling risk and uncertainty in designing reverse logistics problem

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Aida Nazari Gooran

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Increasing attention to environmental problems and social responsibility lead to appear reverse logistic (RL issues in designing supply chain which, in most recently, has received considerable attention from both academicians and practitioners. In this paper, a multi-product reverse logistic network design model is developed; then a hybrid method including Chance-constrained programming, Genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation, are proposed to solve the developed model. The proposed model is solved for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers by conditional value at risk, sum of the excepted value and standard deviation, respectively. Comparisons of the results show that minimizing the costs had no direct relation with the kind of decision makers; however, in the most cases, risk-seeking decision maker gained more return products than risk-averse ones. It is clear that by increasing returned products to the chain, production costs of new products and material will be reduced and also by this act, environmental benefits will be created.

Parameterized Linear Longitudinal Airship Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kulczycki, Eric; Elfes, Alberto; Bayard, David; Quadrelli, Marco; Johnson, Joseph

2010-01-01

A parameterized linear mathematical model of the longitudinal dynamics of an airship is undergoing development. This model is intended to be used in designing control systems for future airships that would operate in the atmospheres of Earth and remote planets. Heretofore, the development of linearized models of the longitudinal dynamics of airships has been costly in that it has been necessary to perform extensive flight testing and to use system-identification techniques to construct models that fit the flight-test data. The present model is a generic one that can be relatively easily specialized to approximate the dynamics of specific airships at specific operating points, without need for further system identification, and with significantly less flight testing. The approach taken in the present development is to merge the linearized dynamical equations of an airship with techniques for estimation of aircraft stability derivatives, and to thereby make it possible to construct a linearized dynamical model of the longitudinal dynamics of a specific airship from geometric and aerodynamic data pertaining to that airship. (It is also planned to develop a model of the lateral dynamics by use of the same methods.) All of the aerodynamic data needed to construct the model of a specific airship can be obtained from wind-tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics

Linear and non-linear autoregressive models for short-term wind speed forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydia, M.; Suresh Kumar, S.; Immanuel Selvakumar, A.; Edwin Prem Kumar, G.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Models for wind speed prediction at 10-min intervals up to 1 h built on time-series wind speed data. • Four different multivariate models for wind speed built based on exogenous variables. • Non-linear models built using three data mining algorithms outperform the linear models. • Autoregressive models based on wind direction perform better than other models. - Abstract: Wind speed forecasting aids in estimating the energy produced from wind farms. The soaring energy demands of the world and minimal availability of conventional energy sources have significantly increased the role of non-conventional sources of energy like solar, wind, etc. Development of models for wind speed forecasting with higher reliability and greater accuracy is the need of the hour. In this paper, models for predicting wind speed at 10-min intervals up to 1 h have been built based on linear and non-linear autoregressive moving average models with and without external variables. The autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction and annual trends have been built using data obtained from Sotavento Galicia Plc. and autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction, wind shear and temperature have been built on data obtained from Centre for Wind Energy Technology, Chennai, India. While the parameters of the linear models are obtained using the Gauss–Newton algorithm, the non-linear autoregressive models are developed using three different data mining algorithms. The accuracy of the models has been measured using three performance metrics namely, the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

Logistics planning and logistics planning factors for humanitarian operations

OpenAIRE

Sullivan, Donna Marie.

1995-01-01

Due to the increasing demand on the military to conduct humanitarian operations, the need for logistics planning factors that are applicable to these operations has arisen. This thesis develops a model for humanitarian operations and employs the model to develop logistics planning factors for material consumption and a computer-assisted planning aid relating to the support of the victim population. U.S. Navy (U.S.N.) author.

Logistics models for the transportation of radioactive waste and spent fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joy, D.S.; Holcomb, B.D.

1978-03-01

Mathematical modeling of the logistics of waste shipment is an effective way to provide input to program planning and long-range waste management. Several logistics models have been developed for use in parametric studies, contingency planning, and management of transportation networks. These models allow the determination of shipping schedules, optimal routes, probable transportation modes, minimal costs, minimal personnel exposure, minimal transportation equipment, etc. Such information will permit OWI to specify waste-receiving rates at various repositories in order to balance work loads, evaluate surge capacity requirements, and estimate projected shipping cask fleets. The programs are tailored to utilize information on the types of wastes being received, location of repositories and waste-generating facilities, shipping distances, time required for a given shipment, availability of equipment, above-ground storage capabilities and locations, projected waste throughput rates, etc. Two basic models have been developed. The Low-Level Waste Model evaluates the optimal transportation policy for shipping waste directly from the source to a final destination without any intermediate stops. The Spent Fuel Logistics Model evaluates the optimal transportation policy for shipping unreprocessed spent fuel from nuclear power plants (1) indirectly, that is, to an Away-From-Reactor (AFR) storage facility, with subsequent transhipment to a repository, or (2) directly to a repository

Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-01-01

the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

Logistic regression models of factors influencing the location of bioenergy and biofuels plants

Science.gov (United States)

T.M. Young; R.L. Zaretzki; J.H. Perdue; F.M. Guess; X. Liu

2011-01-01

Logistic regression models were developed to identify significant factors that influence the location of existing wood-using bioenergy/biofuels plants and traditional wood-using facilities. Logistic models provided quantitative insight for variables influencing the location of woody biomass-using facilities. Availability of "thinnings to a basal area of 31.7m2/ha...

Conditional Poisson models: a flexible alternative to conditional logistic case cross-over analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Armstrong, Ben G; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tobias, Aurelio

2014-11-24

The time stratified case cross-over approach is a popular alternative to conventional time series regression for analysing associations between time series of environmental exposures (air pollution, weather) and counts of health outcomes. These are almost always analyzed using conditional logistic regression on data expanded to case-control (case crossover) format, but this has some limitations. In particular adjusting for overdispersion and auto-correlation in the counts is not possible. It has been established that a Poisson model for counts with stratum indicators gives identical estimates to those from conditional logistic regression and does not have these limitations, but it is little used, probably because of the overheads in estimating many stratum parameters. The conditional Poisson model avoids estimating stratum parameters by conditioning on the total event count in each stratum, thus simplifying the computing and increasing the number of strata for which fitting is feasible compared with the standard unconditional Poisson model. Unlike the conditional logistic model, the conditional Poisson model does not require expanding the data, and can adjust for overdispersion and auto-correlation. It is available in Stata, R, and other packages. By applying to some real data and using simulations, we demonstrate that conditional Poisson models were simpler to code and shorter to run than are conditional logistic analyses and can be fitted to larger data sets than possible with standard Poisson models. Allowing for overdispersion or autocorrelation was possible with the conditional Poisson model but when not required this model gave identical estimates to those from conditional logistic regression. Conditional Poisson regression models provide an alternative to case crossover analysis of stratified time series data with some advantages. The conditional Poisson model can also be used in other contexts in which primary control for confounding is by fine

Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models

CERN Document Server

McCulloch, Charles E; Neuhaus, John M

2011-01-01

An accessible and self-contained introduction to statistical models-now in a modernized new editionGeneralized, Linear, and Mixed Models, Second Edition provides an up-to-date treatment of the essential techniques for developing and applying a wide variety of statistical models. The book presents thorough and unified coverage of the theory behind generalized, linear, and mixed models and highlights their similarities and differences in various construction, application, and computational aspects.A clear introduction to the basic ideas of fixed effects models, random effects models, and mixed m

Multivariate generalized linear mixed models using R

CERN Document Server

Berridge, Damon Mark

2011-01-01

Multivariate Generalized Linear Mixed Models Using R presents robust and methodologically sound models for analyzing large and complex data sets, enabling readers to answer increasingly complex research questions. The book applies the principles of modeling to longitudinal data from panel and related studies via the Sabre software package in R. A Unified Framework for a Broad Class of Models The authors first discuss members of the family of generalized linear models, gradually adding complexity to the modeling framework by incorporating random effects. After reviewing the generalized linear model notation, they illustrate a range of random effects models, including three-level, multivariate, endpoint, event history, and state dependence models. They estimate the multivariate generalized linear mixed models (MGLMMs) using either standard or adaptive Gaussian quadrature. The authors also compare two-level fixed and random effects linear models. The appendices contain additional information on quadrature, model...

Modeling patterns in data using linear and related models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelhardt, M.E.

1996-06-01

This report considers the use of linear models for analyzing data related to reliability and safety issues of the type usually associated with nuclear power plants. The report discusses some of the general results of linear regression analysis, such as the model assumptions and properties of the estimators of the parameters. The results are motivated with examples of operational data. Results about the important case of a linear regression model with one covariate are covered in detail. This case includes analysis of time trends. The analysis is applied with two different sets of time trend data. Diagnostic procedures and tests for the adequacy of the model are discussed. Some related methods such as weighted regression and nonlinear models are also considered. A discussion of the general linear model is also included. Appendix A gives some basic SAS programs and outputs for some of the analyses discussed in the body of the report. Appendix B is a review of some of the matrix theoretic results which are useful in the development of linear models

Logistics modelling: improving resource management and public information strategies in Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Daniel M; Van Groningen, Chuck; Craig, Brian

2011-10-01

One of the most time-sensitive and logistically-challenging emergency response operations today is to provide mass prophylaxis to every man, woman and child in a community within 48 hours of a bioterrorism attack. To meet this challenge, federal, state and local public health departments in the USA have joined forces to develop, test and execute large-scale bioterrorism response plans. This preparedness and response effort is funded through the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Cities Readiness Initiative, a programme dedicated to providing oral antibiotics to an entire population within 48 hours of a weaponised inhalation anthrax attack. This paper will demonstrate how the State of Florida used a logistics modelling tool to improve its CRI mass prophylaxis plans. Special focus will be on how logistics modelling strengthened Florida's resource management policies and validated its public information strategies.

A Study on Logistics Cluster Competitiveness among Asia Main Countries using the Porter's Diamond Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tae Won Chung

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Measurement and discussions of logistics cluster competitiveness with a national approach are required to boost agglomeration effects and potentially create logistics efficiency and productivity. This study developed assessment criteria of logistics cluster competitiveness based on Porter's diamond model, calculated the weight of each criterion by the AHP method, and finally evaluated and discussed logistics cluster competitiveness among Asia main countries. The results indicate that there was a large difference in logistics cluster competitiveness among six countries. The logistics cluster competitiveness scores of Singapore (7.93, Japan (7.38, and Hong Kong (7.04 are observably different from those of China (5.40, Korea (5.08, and Malaysia (3.46. Singapore, with the highest competitiveness score, revealed its absolute advantage in logistics cluster indices. These research results intend to provide logistics policy makers with some strategic recommendations, and may serve as a baseline for further logistics cluster studies using Porter's diamond model.

The Application of Collaborative Business Intelligence Technology in the Hospital SPD Logistics Management Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tongzhu; Shen, Aizong; Hu, Xiaojian; Tong, Guixian; Gu, Wei

2017-06-01

We aimed to apply collaborative business intelligence (BI) system to hospital supply, processing and distribution (SPD) logistics management model. We searched Engineering Village database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Google for articles (Published from 2011 to 2016), books, Web pages, etc., to understand SPD and BI related theories and recent research status. For the application of collaborative BI technology in the hospital SPD logistics management model, we realized this by leveraging data mining techniques to discover knowledge from complex data and collaborative techniques to improve the theories of business process. For the application of BI system, we: (i) proposed a layered structure of collaborative BI system for intelligent management in hospital logistics; (ii) built data warehouse for the collaborative BI system; (iii) improved data mining techniques such as supporting vector machines (SVM) and swarm intelligence firefly algorithm to solve key problems in hospital logistics collaborative BI system; (iv) researched the collaborative techniques oriented to data and business process optimization to improve the business processes of hospital logistics management. Proper combination of SPD model and BI system will improve the management of logistics in the hospitals. The successful implementation of the study requires: (i) to innovate and improve the traditional SPD model and make appropriate implement plans and schedules for the application of BI system according to the actual situations of hospitals; (ii) the collaborative participation of internal departments in hospital including the department of information, logistics, nursing, medical and financial; (iii) timely response of external suppliers.

Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimzadeh, Farzad; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Vahabi, Nasim; Almasian, Mohammad; Bakhteyar, Katayoon

2015-01-01

Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.

Sample size calculation to externally validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Palazón-Bru

Full Text Available A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence. Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model.The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study.The algorithm was based on bootstrap samples in which the area under the ROC curve, the observed event probabilities through smooth curves, and a measure to determine the lack of calibration (estimated calibration index were calculated. To illustrate its use for interested researchers, the algorithm was applied to a scoring system, based on a binary logistic regression model, to determine mortality in intensive care units.In the case study provided, the algorithm obtained a sample size with 69 events, which is lower than the value suggested in the literature.An algorithm is provided for finding the appropriate sample size to validate scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models. This could be applied to determine the sample size in other similar cases.

Comparison of linear and non-linear models for predicting energy expenditure from raw accelerometer data.

Science.gov (United States)

Montoye, Alexander H K; Begum, Munni; Henning, Zachary; Pfeiffer, Karin A

2017-02-01

This study had three purposes, all related to evaluating energy expenditure (EE) prediction accuracy from body-worn accelerometers: (1) compare linear regression to linear mixed models, (2) compare linear models to artificial neural network models, and (3) compare accuracy of accelerometers placed on the hip, thigh, and wrists. Forty individuals performed 13 activities in a 90 min semi-structured, laboratory-based protocol. Participants wore accelerometers on the right hip, right thigh, and both wrists and a portable metabolic analyzer (EE criterion). Four EE prediction models were developed for each accelerometer: linear regression, linear mixed, and two ANN models. EE prediction accuracy was assessed using correlations, root mean square error (RMSE), and bias and was compared across models and accelerometers using repeated-measures analysis of variance. For all accelerometer placements, there were no significant differences for correlations or RMSE between linear regression and linear mixed models (correlations: r  =  0.71-0.88, RMSE: 1.11-1.61 METs; p  >  0.05). For the thigh-worn accelerometer, there were no differences in correlations or RMSE between linear and ANN models (ANN-correlations: r  =  0.89, RMSE: 1.07-1.08 METs. Linear models-correlations: r  =  0.88, RMSE: 1.10-1.11 METs; p  >  0.05). Conversely, one ANN had higher correlations and lower RMSE than both linear models for the hip (ANN-correlation: r  =  0.88, RMSE: 1.12 METs. Linear models-correlations: r  =  0.86, RMSE: 1.18-1.19 METs; p  linear models for the wrist-worn accelerometers (ANN-correlations: r  =  0.82-0.84, RMSE: 1.26-1.32 METs. Linear models-correlations: r  =  0.71-0.73, RMSE: 1.55-1.61 METs; p  models offer a significant improvement in EE prediction accuracy over linear models. Conversely, linear models showed similar EE prediction accuracy to machine learning models for hip- and thigh

Analysis of Jingdong Mall Logistics Distribution Model

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Kang; Cheng, Feng

In recent years, the development of electronic commerce in our country to speed up the pace. The role of logistics has been highlighted, more and more electronic commerce enterprise are beginning to realize the importance of logistics in the success or failure of the enterprise. In this paper, the author take Jingdong Mall for example, performing a SWOT analysis of their current situation of self-built logistics system, find out the problems existing in the current Jingdong Mall logistics distribution and give appropriate recommendations.

Models of Inter-Organizational Logistics Management in Slovenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sašo Murtič

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Throughout the history, the transportation of goods and related logistics have played an important role in human development and existence. This pertains to numerous interlinked processes, whose management is often linked to social system, international linkages, development of industry, market and market specifics. In modern times, the management of these processes is increasingly bound to globalization of production and market, moving of production to countries with cheaper labour force, environmental protection. The present Slovenian economy depends to a large extent on economies and corporate relations of the European Union and the world. Such inter-connectedness demands frequent transportation of semi-finished and finished goods. By providing timely delivery of goods, transportation consequently enables inter-organizational linkages and individual production, economic, market and other processes. Organizational and inter-organizational management of transport logistics demands profound understanding of transport flows, freight forwarding expertise and knowledge of transport, tax, environmental and other related regulations. Adequate knowledge and mastering of cultural, linguistic, national and other differences is important as well. The presented analysis and evaluation form the basis of the construction of inter-organizational model of logistics management in Slovenia.

WASTES: a waste management logistics/economics model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNair, G.W.; Shay, M.R.; Fletcher, J.F.; Cashwell, J.W.

1985-01-01

The WASTES logistics model is a simulation language based model for analyzing the logistic flow of spent fuel/nuclear waste throughout the waste management system. The model tracks the movement of spent fuel/nuclear waste from point of generation to final destination. The model maintains inventories of spent fuel/nuclear waste at individual reactor sites as well as at various facilities within the waste management system. A maximum of 14 facilities may be utilized within a single run. These 14 facilities may include any combination of the following facilities: (1) federal interim storage (FIS), (2) reprocessing (REP), (3) monitored retrievable storage (MRS), (4) geological disposal facilities (GDF). The movement of spent fuel/nuclear waste between these facilities is controlled by the user specification of loading and unloading rates, annual and maximum capacities and commodity characteristics (minimum age or heat constraints) for each individual facility. In addition, the user may specify varying levels of priority on the spent fuel/nuclear waste that will be eligible for movement within a given year. These levels of priority allow the user to preferentially move spent fuel from reactor sites that are experiencing a loss of full-core-reserve (FCR) margin in a given year or from reactors that may be in the final stages of decommissioning. The WASTES model utilizes the reactor specific data available from the PNL spent fuel database. This database provides reactor specific information on items such as spent fuel basin size, reactor location, and transportation cask preference (i.e., rail or truck cask). In addition, detailed discharge data is maintained that provides the number of assemblies, metric tons, and exposure for both historic and projected discharges at each reactor site

Core seismic behaviour: linear and non-linear models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, M.; Van Dorsselaere, M.; Gauvain, M.; Jenapierre-Gantenbein, M.

1981-08-01

The usual methodology for the core seismic behaviour analysis leads to a double complementary approach: to define a core model to be included in the reactor-block seismic response analysis, simple enough but representative of basic movements (diagrid or slab), to define a finer core model, with basic data issued from the first model. This paper presents the history of the different models of both kinds. The inert mass model (IMM) yielded a first rough diagrid movement. The direct linear model (DLM), without shocks and with sodium as an added mass, let to two different ones: DLM 1 with independent movements of the fuel and radial blanket subassemblies, and DLM 2 with a core combined movement. The non-linear (NLM) ''CORALIE'' uses the same basic modelization (Finite Element Beams) but accounts for shocks. It studies the response of a diameter on flats and takes into account the fluid coupling and the wrapper tube flexibility at the pad level. Damping consists of one modal part of 2% and one part due to shocks. Finally, ''CORALIE'' yields the time-history of the displacements and efforts on the supports, but damping (probably greater than 2%) and fluid-structures interaction are still to be precised. The validation experiments were performed on a RAPSODIE core mock-up on scale 1, in similitude of 1/3 as to SPX 1. The equivalent linear model (ELM) was developed for the SPX 1 reactor-block response analysis and a specified seismic level (SB or SM). It is composed of several oscillators fixed to the diagrid and yields the same maximum displacements and efforts than the NLM. The SPX 1 core seismic analysis with a diagrid input spectrum which corresponds to a 0,1 g group acceleration, has been carried out with these models: some aspects of these calculations are presented here

Decision support modeling for sustainable food logistics management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soysal, M.

2015-01-01

Summary

For the last two decades, food logistics systems have seen the transition from traditional Logistics Management (LM) to Food Logistics Management (FLM), and successively, to Sustainable Food Logistics Management (SFLM). Accordingly, food industry has been subject to the recent

Using the Logistic Regression model in supporting decisions of establishing marketing strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristinel CONSTANTIN

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is about an instrumental research regarding the using of Logistic Regression model for data analysis in marketing research. The decision makers inside different organisation need relevant information to support their decisions regarding the marketing strategies. The data provided by marketing research could be computed in various ways but the multivariate data analysis models can enhance the utility of the information. Among these models we can find the Logistic Regression model, which is used for dichotomous variables. Our research is based on explanation the utility of this model and interpretation of the resulted information in order to help practitioners and researchers to use it in their future investigations

Explorative methods in linear models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høskuldsson, Agnar

2004-01-01

The author has developed the H-method of mathematical modeling that builds up the model by parts, where each part is optimized with respect to prediction. Besides providing with better predictions than traditional methods, these methods provide with graphic procedures for analyzing different feat...... features in data. These graphic methods extend the well-known methods and results of Principal Component Analysis to any linear model. Here the graphic procedures are applied to linear regression and Ridge Regression....

The Application of Collaborative Business Intelligence Technology in the Hospital SPD Logistics Management Model

Science.gov (United States)

LIU, Tongzhu; SHEN, Aizong; HU, Xiaojian; TONG, Guixian; GU, Wei

2017-01-01

Background: We aimed to apply collaborative business intelligence (BI) system to hospital supply, processing and distribution (SPD) logistics management model. Methods: We searched Engineering Village database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Google for articles (Published from 2011 to 2016), books, Web pages, etc., to understand SPD and BI related theories and recent research status. For the application of collaborative BI technology in the hospital SPD logistics management model, we realized this by leveraging data mining techniques to discover knowledge from complex data and collaborative techniques to improve the theories of business process. Results: For the application of BI system, we: (i) proposed a layered structure of collaborative BI system for intelligent management in hospital logistics; (ii) built data warehouse for the collaborative BI system; (iii) improved data mining techniques such as supporting vector machines (SVM) and swarm intelligence firefly algorithm to solve key problems in hospital logistics collaborative BI system; (iv) researched the collaborative techniques oriented to data and business process optimization to improve the business processes of hospital logistics management. Conclusion: Proper combination of SPD model and BI system will improve the management of logistics in the hospitals. The successful implementation of the study requires: (i) to innovate and improve the traditional SPD model and make appropriate implement plans and schedules for the application of BI system according to the actual situations of hospitals; (ii) the collaborative participation of internal departments in hospital including the department of information, logistics, nursing, medical and financial; (iii) timely response of external suppliers. PMID:28828316

Comparison of particular logistic models' adoption in the Czech Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Vrbová, Petra; Cempírek, Václav

2016-12-01

Managing inventory is considered as one of the most challenging tasks facing supply chain managers and specialists. Decisions related to inventory locations along with level of inventory kept throughout the supply chain have a fundamental impact on the response time, service level, delivery lead-time and the total cost of the supply chain. The main objective of this paper is to identify and analyse the share of a particular logistic model adopted in the Czech Republic (Consignment stock, Buffer stock, Safety stock) and also compare their usage and adoption according to different industries. This paper also aims to specify possible reasons of particular logistic model preferences in comparison to the others. The analysis is based on quantitative survey held in the Czech Republic.

Modeling Governance KB with CATPCA to Overcome Multicollinearity in the Logistic Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Khikmah, L.; Wijayanto, H.; Syafitri, U. D.

2017-04-01

The problem often encounters in logistic regression modeling are multicollinearity problems. Data that have multicollinearity between explanatory variables with the result in the estimation of parameters to be bias. Besides, the multicollinearity will result in error in the classification. In general, to overcome multicollinearity in regression used stepwise regression. They are also another method to overcome multicollinearity which involves all variable for prediction. That is Principal Component Analysis (PCA). However, classical PCA in only for numeric data. Its data are categorical, one method to solve the problems is Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CATPCA). Data were used in this research were a part of data Demographic and Population Survey Indonesia (IDHS) 2012. This research focuses on the characteristic of women of using the contraceptive methods. Classification results evaluated using Area Under Curve (AUC) values. The higher the AUC value, the better. Based on AUC values, the classification of the contraceptive method using stepwise method (58.66%) is better than the logistic regression model (57.39%) and CATPCA (57.39%). Evaluation of the results of logistic regression using sensitivity, shows the opposite where CATPCA method (99.79%) is better than logistic regression method (92.43%) and stepwise (92.05%). Therefore in this study focuses on major class classification (using a contraceptive method), then the selected model is CATPCA because it can raise the level of the major class model accuracy.

Understanding logistic regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperandei, Sandro

2014-01-01

Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.

Sparse Linear Identifiable Multivariate Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

2011-01-01

and bench-marked on artificial and real biological data sets. SLIM is closest in spirit to LiNGAM (Shimizu et al., 2006), but differs substantially in inference, Bayesian network structure learning and model comparison. Experimentally, SLIM performs equally well or better than LiNGAM with comparable......In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model inference, and model comparison. It consists of a fully...

An algorithm for robust non-linear analysis of radioimmunoassays and other bioassays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Normolle, D.P.

1993-01-01

The four-parameter logistic function is an appropriate model for many types of bioassays that have continuous response variables, such as radioimmunoassays. By modelling the variance of replicates in an assay, one can modify the usual parameter estimation techniques (for example, Gauss-Newton or Marquardt-Levenberg) to produce parameter estimates for the standard curve that are robust against outlying observations. This article describes the computation of robust (M-) estimates for the parameters of the four-parameter logistic function. It describes techniques for modelling the variance structure of the replicates, modifications to the usual iterative algorithms for parameter estimation in non-linear models, and a formula for inverse confidence intervals. To demonstrate the algorithm, the article presents examples where the robustly estimated four-parameter logistic model is compared with the logit-log and four-parameter logistic models with least-squares estimates. (author)

On the small-time behavior of stochastic logistic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dung Tien Nguyen

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we investigate the small-time behaviors of the solution to  a stochastic logistic model. The obtained results allow us to estimate the number of individuals in the population and can be used to study stochastic prey-predator systems.

Grey-Theory-Based Optimization Model of Emergency Logistics Considering Time Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Bao-Jian; Zhang, Jiang-Hua; Qi, Yuan-Tao; Liu, Yang

2015-01-01

Natural disasters occur frequently in recent years, causing huge casualties and property losses. Nowadays, people pay more and more attention to the emergency logistics problems. This paper studies the emergency logistics problem with multi-center, multi-commodity, and single-affected-point. Considering that the path near the disaster point may be damaged, the information of the state of the paths is not complete, and the travel time is uncertainty, we establish the nonlinear programming model that objective function is the maximization of time-satisfaction degree. To overcome these drawbacks: the incomplete information and uncertain time, this paper firstly evaluates the multiple roads of transportation network based on grey theory and selects the reliable and optimal path. Then simplify the original model under the scenario that the vehicle only follows the optimal path from the emergency logistics center to the affected point, and use Lingo software to solve it. The numerical experiments are presented to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Latent log-linear models for handwritten digit classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Deselaers, Thomas; Gass, Tobias; Heigold, Georg; Ney, Hermann

2012-06-01

We present latent log-linear models, an extension of log-linear models incorporating latent variables, and we propose two applications thereof: log-linear mixture models and image deformation-aware log-linear models. The resulting models are fully discriminative, can be trained efficiently, and the model complexity can be controlled. Log-linear mixture models offer additional flexibility within the log-linear modeling framework. Unlike previous approaches, the image deformation-aware model directly considers image deformations and allows for a discriminative training of the deformation parameters. Both are trained using alternating optimization. For certain variants, convergence to a stationary point is guaranteed and, in practice, even variants without this guarantee converge and find models that perform well. We tune the methods on the USPS data set and evaluate on the MNIST data set, demonstrating the generalization capabilities of our proposed models. Our models, although using significantly fewer parameters, are able to obtain competitive results with models proposed in the literature.

Equivalent linear damping characterization in linear and nonlinear force-stiffness muscle models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ovesy, Marzieh; Nazari, Mohammad Ali; Mahdavian, Mohammad

2016-02-01

In the current research, the muscle equivalent linear damping coefficient which is introduced as the force-velocity relation in a muscle model and the corresponding time constant are investigated. In order to reach this goal, a 1D skeletal muscle model was used. Two characterizations of this model using a linear force-stiffness relationship (Hill-type model) and a nonlinear one have been implemented. The OpenSim platform was used for verification of the model. The isometric activation has been used for the simulation. The equivalent linear damping and the time constant of each model were extracted by using the results obtained from the simulation. The results provide a better insight into the characteristics of each model. It is found that the nonlinear models had a response rate closer to the reality compared to the Hill-type models.

The logic of logistics theory, algorithms, and applications for logistics management

CERN Document Server

Simchi-Levi, David; Bramel, Julien

2014-01-01

Fierce competition in today's global market provides a powerful motivation for developing ever more sophisticated logistics systems. This book, written for the logistics manager and researcher, presents a survey of the modern theory and application of logistics. The goal of the book is to present the state of the art in the science of logistics management. This third edition includes new chapters on the subjects of game theory, the power of process flexibility, supply chain competition and collaboration. Among the other materials new to the edition are sections on discrete convex analysis and its applications to stochastic inventory models, as well as extended discussions of integrated inventory and pricing models. The material presents a timely and authoritative survey of the field that will make an invaluable companion to the work of many researchers and practitioners.   Review of earlier edition:   "The present book focuses on the application of operational research and mathematical modelling technique...

Measuring efficiency in logistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milan Milovan Andrejić

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Dynamic market and environmental changes greatly affect operating of logistics systems. Logistics systems have to realize their activities and processes in an efficient way. The main objective of this paper is to analyze different aspects of efficiency measurement in logistics and to propose appropriate models of measurement. Measuring efficiency in logistics is a complex process that requires consideration of all subsystems, processes and activities as well as the impact of various financial, operational, environmental, quality and other factors. The proposed models have a basis in the Data Envelopment Analysis method. They could help managers in decision making and corrective actions processes. The tests and results of the model show the importance of input and output variables selection.

MODELS AND METHODS FOR LOGISTICS HUB LOCATION: A REVIEW TOWARDS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS DESIGN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolina Luisa dos Santos Vieira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Logistics hubs affect the distribution patterns in transportation networks since they are flow-concentrating structures. Indeed, the efficient moving of goods throughout supply chains depends on the design of such networks. This paper presents a literature review on the logistics hub location problem, providing an outline of modeling approaches, solving techniques, and their applicability to such context. Two categories of models were identified. While multi-criteria models may seem best suited to find optimal locations, they do not allow an assessment of the impact of new hubs on goods flow and on the transportation network. On the other hand, single-criterion models, which provide location and flow allocation information, adopt network simplifications that hinder an accurate representation of the relationshipbetween origins, destinations, and hubs. In view of these limitations we propose future research directions for addressing real challenges of logistics hubs location regarding transportation networks design.

Integrating the augmented SCOR model and the ISO 15288 life cycle model into a single logistic model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schmitz, Peter MU

2010-07-01

Full Text Available using the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model. The SANDF indicated that the augmented SCOR model (Bean, Schmitz and Engelbrecht, 2009) should be extended into a single logistics process which should include a life-cycle perspective...

SIMULATION OF LOGISTICS PROCESSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu. Taranenko

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the theoretical basis of the simulation. The study shows the simulation of logistic processes in industrial countries is an integral part of many economic projects aimed at the creation or improvement of logistics systems. The paper was used model Beer Game for management of logistics processes in the enterprise. The simulation model implements in AnyLogic package. AnyLogic product allows us to consider the logistics processes as an integrated system, which allows reaching better solutions. Logistics process management involves pooling the sales market, production and distribution to ensure the temporal level of customer service at the lowest cost overall. This made it possible to conduct experiments and to determine the optimal size of the warehouse at the lowest cost.

Carbon emissions, logistics volume and GDP in China: empirical analysis based on panel data model.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaopeng; Ren, Dongfang; Shi, Jiaxing

2016-12-01

This paper studies the relationship among carbon emissions, GDP, and logistics by using a panel data model and a combination of statistics and econometrics theory. The model is based on the historical data of 10 typical provinces and cities in China during 2005-2014. The model in this paper adds the variability of logistics on the basis of previous studies, and this variable is replaced by the freight turnover of the provinces. Carbon emissions are calculated by using the annual consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas. GDP is the gross domestic product. The results showed that the amount of logistics and GDP have a contribution to carbon emissions and the long-term relationships are different between different cities in China, mainly influenced by the difference among development mode, economic structure, and level of logistic development. After the testing of panel model setting, this paper established a variable coefficient model of the panel. The influence of GDP and logistics on carbon emissions is obtained according to the influence factors among the variables. The paper concludes with main findings and provides recommendations toward rational planning of urban sustainable development and environmental protection for China.

Logistics service management; differentiating the logistics service

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veeken, van der D.J.M.; Rutten, W.G.M.M.

1998-01-01

In this article a model is described, which enables differentiation of the logistics service that a company offers to its customers. Differentiating this service is essential for businesses with a large variation within their customer and/or products portfolio. The model consists of four phases:

From linear to generalized linear mixed models: A case study in repeated measures

Science.gov (United States)

Compared to traditional linear mixed models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) can offer better correspondence between response variables and explanatory models, yielding more efficient estimates and tests in the analysis of data from designed experiments. Using proportion data from a designed...

An appraisal of convergence failures in the application of logistic regression model in published manuscripts.

Science.gov (United States)

Yusuf, O B; Bamgboye, E A; Afolabi, R F; Shodimu, M A

2014-09-01

Logistic regression model is widely used in health research for description and predictive purposes. Unfortunately, most researchers are sometimes not aware that the underlying principles of the techniques have failed when the algorithm for maximum likelihood does not converge. Young researchers particularly postgraduate students may not know why separation problem whether quasi or complete occurs, how to identify it and how to fix it. This study was designed to critically evaluate convergence issues in articles that employed logistic regression analysis published in an African Journal of Medicine and medical sciences between 2004 and 2013. Problems of quasi or complete separation were described and were illustrated with the National Demographic and Health Survey dataset. A critical evaluation of articles that employed logistic regression was conducted. A total of 581 articles was reviewed, of which 40 (6.9%) used binary logistic regression. Twenty-four (60.0%) stated the use of logistic regression model in the methodology while none of the articles assessed model fit. Only 3 (12.5%) properly described the procedures. Of the 40 that used the logistic regression model, the problem of convergence occurred in 6 (15.0%) of the articles. Logistic regression tends to be poorly reported in studies published between 2004 and 2013. Our findings showed that the procedure may not be well understood by researchers since very few described the process in their reports and may be totally unaware of the problem of convergence or how to deal with it.

Extended Linear Models with Gaussian Priors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quinonero, Joaquin

2002-01-01

In extended linear models the input space is projected onto a feature space by means of an arbitrary non-linear transformation. A linear model is then applied to the feature space to construct the model output. The dimension of the feature space can be very large, or even infinite, giving the model...... a very big flexibility. Support Vector Machines (SVM's) and Gaussian processes are two examples of such models. In this technical report I present a model in which the dimension of the feature space remains finite, and where a Bayesian approach is used to train the model with Gaussian priors...... on the parameters. The Relevance Vector Machine, introduced by Tipping, is a particular case of such a model. I give the detailed derivations of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm used in the training. These derivations are not found in the literature, and might be helpful for newcomers....

Linear mixed models for longitudinal data

CERN Document Server

Molenberghs, Geert

2000-01-01

This paperback edition is a reprint of the 2000 edition. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of linear mixed models for continuous longitudinal data. Next to model formulation, this edition puts major emphasis on exploratory data analysis for all aspects of the model, such as the marginal model, subject-specific profiles, and residual covariance structure. Further, model diagnostics and missing data receive extensive treatment. Sensitivity analysis for incomplete data is given a prominent place. Several variations to the conventional linear mixed model are discussed (a heterogeity model, conditional linear mixed models). This book will be of interest to applied statisticians and biomedical researchers in industry, public health organizations, contract research organizations, and academia. The book is explanatory rather than mathematically rigorous. Most analyses were done with the MIXED procedure of the SAS software package, and many of its features are clearly elucidated. However, some other commerc...

Logistics flows and enterprise input-output models: aggregate and disaggregate analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albino, V.; Yazan, Devrim; Messeni Petruzzelli, A.; Okogbaa, O.G.

2011-01-01

In the present paper, we propose the use of enterprise input-output (EIO) models to describe and analyse the logistics flows considering spatial issues and related environmental effects associated with production and transportation processes. In particular, transportation is modelled as a specific

Non-linear finite element modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

The note is written for courses in "Non-linear finite element method". The note has been used by the author teaching non-linear finite element modeling at Civil Engineering at Aalborg University, Computational Mechanics at Aalborg University Esbjerg, Structural Engineering at the University...

A logistics model for large space power systems

Science.gov (United States)

Koelle, H. H.

Space Power Systems (SPS) have to overcome two hurdles: (1) to find an attractive design, manufacturing and assembly concept and (2) to have available a space transportation system that can provide economical logistic support during the construction and operational phases. An initial system feasibility study, some five years ago, was based on a reference system that used terrestrial resources only and was based partially on electric propulsion systems. The conclusion was: it is feasible but not yet economically competitive with other options. This study is based on terrestrial and extraterrestrial resources and on chemical (LH 2/LOX) propulsion systems. These engines are available from the Space Shuttle production line and require small changes only. Other so-called advanced propulsion systems investigated did not prove economically superior if lunar LOX is available! We assume that a Shuttle derived Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) will become available around the turn of the century and that this will be used to establish a research base on the lunar surface. This lunar base has the potential to grow into a lunar factory producing LOX and construction materials for supporting among other projects also the construction of space power systems in geostationary orbit. A model was developed to simulate the logistics support of such an operation for a 50-year life cycle. After 50 years 111 SPS units with 5 GW each and an availability of 90% will produce 100 × 5 = 500 GW. The model comprises 60 equations and requires 29 assumptions of the parameter involved. 60-state variables calculated with the 60 equations mentioned above are given on an annual basis and as averages for the 50-year life cycle. Recycling of defective parts in geostationary orbit is one of the features of the model. The state-of-the-art with respect to SPS technology is introduced as a variable Mg mass/MW electric power delivered. If the space manufacturing facility, a maintenance and repair facility

Flower Power: Sunflowers as a Model for Logistic Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Eileen; Geist, Kristi A.

2011-01-01

Logistic growth displays an interesting pattern: It starts fast, exhibiting the rapid growth characteristic of exponential models. As time passes, it slows in response to constraints such as limited resources or reallocation of energy. The growth continues to slow until it reaches a limit, called capacity. When the growth describes a population,…

A Study on Logistics Cluster Competitiveness among Asia Main Countries using the Porter's Diamond Model

OpenAIRE

Tae Won Chung

2016-01-01

Measurement and discussions of logistics cluster competitiveness with a national approach are required to boost agglomeration effects and potentially create logistics efficiency and productivity. This study developed assessment criteria of logistics cluster competitiveness based on Porter's diamond model, calculated the weight of each criterion by the AHP method, and finally evaluated and discussed logistics cluster competitiveness among Asia main countries. The results indicate that there wa...

Business Process Modeling for Domain Inbound Logistics System : Analytical Perspective with BPMN 2.0

OpenAIRE

Khabbazi, Mahmood Reza; Hasan, M. K; Sulaiman, R; Shapi’i, A

2013-01-01

Among different Business Process Management strategies and methodologies, one common feature is to captureexisting processes and representing the new processes adequately. Business Process Modelling (BPM) plays acrucial role on such an effort. This paper proposes a “to-be” inbound logistics business processes model usingBPMN 2.0 standard specifying the structure and behaviour of the system within the SME environment. Thegeneric framework of inbound logistics model consists of one main high-le...

Single-tier city logistics model for single product

Science.gov (United States)

Saragih, N. I.; Nur Bahagia, S.; Suprayogi; Syabri, I.

2017-11-01

This research develops single-tier city logistics model which consists of suppliers, UCCs, and retailers. The problem that will be answered in this research is how to determine the location of UCCs, to allocate retailers to opened UCCs, to assign suppliers to opened UCCs, to control inventory in the three entities involved, and to determine the route of the vehicles from opened UCCs to retailers. This model has never been developed before. All the decisions will be simultaneously optimized. Characteristic of the demand is probabilistic following a normal distribution, and the number of product is single.

Construction of risk prediction model of type 2 diabetes mellitus based on logistic regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Jian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: to construct multi factor prediction model for the individual risk of T2DM, and to explore new ideas for early warning, prevention and personalized health services for T2DM. Methods: using logistic regression techniques to screen the risk factors for T2DM and construct the risk prediction model of T2DM. Results: Male’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI × 0.735+ vegetables × (−0.671 + age × 0.838+ diastolic pressure × 0.296+ physical activity× (−2.287 + sleep ×(−0.009 +smoking ×0.214; Female’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI ×1.979+ vegetables× (−0.292 + age × 1.355+ diastolic pressure× 0.522+ physical activity × (−2.287 + sleep × (−0.010.The area under the ROC curve of male was 0.83, the sensitivity was 0.72, the specificity was 0.86, the area under the ROC curve of female was 0.84, the sensitivity was 0.75, the specificity was 0.90. Conclusion: This study model data is from a compared study of nested case, the risk prediction model has been established by using the more mature logistic regression techniques, and the model is higher predictive sensitivity, specificity and stability.

A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2017-09-03

Sep 3, 2017 ... Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design was fitted. .... Data was entered into STATA-12 and analyzed using. SPSS-21. .... lack of access/too far or costs too much. 35. 1.2.

Optimal item discrimination and maximum information for logistic IRT models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veerkamp, W.J.J.; Veerkamp, Wim J.J.; Berger, Martijn P.F.; Berger, Martijn

1999-01-01

Items with the highest discrimination parameter values in a logistic item response theory model do not necessarily give maximum information. This paper derives discrimination parameter values, as functions of the guessing parameter and distances between person parameters and item difficulty, that

Predicting 30-day Hospital Readmission with Publicly Available Administrative Database. A Conditional Logistic Regression Modeling Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, K; Lou, Z; Zhou, J; Ballester, N; Kong, N; Parikh, P

2015-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Hospital readmissions raise healthcare costs and cause significant distress to providers and patients. It is, therefore, of great interest to healthcare organizations to predict what patients are at risk to be readmitted to their hospitals. However, current logistic regression based risk prediction models have limited prediction power when applied to hospital administrative data. Meanwhile, although decision trees and random forests have been applied, they tend to be too complex to understand among the hospital practitioners. Explore the use of conditional logistic regression to increase the prediction accuracy. We analyzed an HCUP statewide inpatient discharge record dataset, which includes patient demographics, clinical and care utilization data from California. We extracted records of heart failure Medicare beneficiaries who had inpatient experience during an 11-month period. We corrected the data imbalance issue with under-sampling. In our study, we first applied standard logistic regression and decision tree to obtain influential variables and derive practically meaning decision rules. We then stratified the original data set accordingly and applied logistic regression on each data stratum. We further explored the effect of interacting variables in the logistic regression modeling. We conducted cross validation to assess the overall prediction performance of conditional logistic regression (CLR) and compared it with standard classification models. The developed CLR models outperformed several standard classification models (e.g., straightforward logistic regression, stepwise logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine). For example, the best CLR model improved the classification accuracy by nearly 20% over the straightforward logistic regression model. Furthermore, the developed CLR models tend to achieve better sensitivity of

Predicting the aquatic toxicity mode of action using logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Y Y; Zhou, L C; Yang, L; Liu, P Y; Zhao, B W; Liu, H X

2016-09-01

The paper highlights the use of the logistic regression (LR) method in the construction of acceptable statistically significant, robust and predictive models for the classification of chemicals according to their aquatic toxic modes of action. Essentials accounting for a reliable model were all considered carefully. The model predictors were selected by stepwise forward discriminant analysis (LDA) from a combined pool of experimental data and chemical structure-based descriptors calculated by the CODESSA and DRAGON software packages. Model predictive ability was validated both internally and externally. The applicability domain was checked by the leverage approach to verify prediction reliability. The obtained models are simple and easy to interpret. In general, LR performs much better than LDA and seems to be more attractive for the prediction of the more toxic compounds, i.e. compounds that exhibit excess toxicity versus non-polar narcotic compounds and more reactive compounds versus less reactive compounds. In addition, model fit and regression diagnostics was done through the influence plot which reflects the hat-values, studentized residuals, and Cook's distance statistics of each sample. Overdispersion was also checked for the LR model. The relationships between the descriptors and the aquatic toxic behaviour of compounds are also discussed.

Building interpretable predictive models for pediatric hospital readmission using Tree-Lasso logistic regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Jovanovic, Milos; Radovanovic, Sandro; Vukicevic, Milan; Van Poucke, Sven; Delibasic, Boris

2016-09-01

Quantification and early identification of unplanned readmission risk have the potential to improve the quality of care during hospitalization and after discharge. However, high dimensionality, sparsity, and class imbalance of electronic health data and the complexity of risk quantification, challenge the development of accurate predictive models. Predictive models require a certain level of interpretability in order to be applicable in real settings and create actionable insights. This paper aims to develop accurate and interpretable predictive models for readmission in a general pediatric patient population, by integrating a data-driven model (sparse logistic regression) and domain knowledge based on the international classification of diseases 9th-revision clinical modification (ICD-9-CM) hierarchy of diseases. Additionally, we propose a way to quantify the interpretability of a model and inspect the stability of alternative solutions. The analysis was conducted on >66,000 pediatric hospital discharge records from California, State Inpatient Databases, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project between 2009 and 2011. We incorporated domain knowledge based on the ICD-9-CM hierarchy in a data driven, Tree-Lasso regularized logistic regression model, providing the framework for model interpretation. This approach was compared with traditional Lasso logistic regression resulting in models that are easier to interpret by fewer high-level diagnoses, with comparable prediction accuracy. The results revealed that the use of a Tree-Lasso model was as competitive in terms of accuracy (measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-AUC) as the traditional Lasso logistic regression, but integration with the ICD-9-CM hierarchy of diseases provided more interpretable models in terms of high-level diagnoses. Additionally, interpretations of models are in accordance with existing medical understanding of pediatric readmission. Best performing models have

linear-quadratic-linear model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanwiwat Jaikuna

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To develop an in-house software program that is able to calculate and generate the biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histogram by physical dose conversion using the linear-quadratic-linear (LQL model. Material and methods : The Isobio software was developed using MATLAB version 2014b to calculate and generate the biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histograms. The physical dose from each voxel in treatment planning was extracted through Computational Environment for Radiotherapy Research (CERR, and the accuracy was verified by the differentiation between the dose volume histogram from CERR and the treatment planning system. An equivalent dose in 2 Gy fraction (EQD2 was calculated using biological effective dose (BED based on the LQL model. The software calculation and the manual calculation were compared for EQD2 verification with pair t-test statistical analysis using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22 (64-bit. Results: Two and three-dimensional biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histogram were displayed correctly by the Isobio software. Different physical doses were found between CERR and treatment planning system (TPS in Oncentra, with 3.33% in high-risk clinical target volume (HR-CTV determined by D90%, 0.56% in the bladder, 1.74% in the rectum when determined by D2cc, and less than 1% in Pinnacle. The difference in the EQD2 between the software calculation and the manual calculation was not significantly different with 0.00% at p-values 0.820, 0.095, and 0.593 for external beam radiation therapy (EBRT and 0.240, 0.320, and 0.849 for brachytherapy (BT in HR-CTV, bladder, and rectum, respectively. Conclusions : The Isobio software is a feasible tool to generate the biological dose distribution and biological dose volume histogram for treatment plan evaluation in both EBRT and BT.

Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models

CERN Document Server

Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K

2011-01-01

An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a

Matrix Tricks for Linear Statistical Models

CERN Document Server

Puntanen, Simo; Styan, George PH

2011-01-01

In teaching linear statistical models to first-year graduate students or to final-year undergraduate students there is no way to proceed smoothly without matrices and related concepts of linear algebra; their use is really essential. Our experience is that making some particular matrix tricks very familiar to students can substantially increase their insight into linear statistical models (and also multivariate statistical analysis). In matrix algebra, there are handy, sometimes even very simple "tricks" which simplify and clarify the treatment of a problem - both for the student and

An online re-linearization scheme suited for Model Predictive and Linear Quadratic Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

This technical note documents the equations for primal-dual interior-point quadratic programming problem solver used for MPC. The algorithm exploits the special structure of the MPC problem and is able to reduce the computational burden such that the computational burden scales with prediction...... horizon length in a linear way rather than cubic, which would be the case if the structure was not exploited. It is also shown how models used for design of model-based controllers, e.g. linear quadratic and model predictive, can be linearized both at equilibrium and non-equilibrium points, making...

Transportation system modeling and simulation in support of logistics and operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshimura, R.H.; Kjeldgaard, E.A.; Turnquist, M.A.; List, G.F.

1997-12-01

Effective management of DOE's transportation operations requires better data than are currently available, a more integrated management structure for making transportation decisions, and decision support tools to provide needed analysis capabilities. This paper describes a vision of an advanced logistics management system for DOE, and the rationale for developing improved modeling and simulation capability as an integral part of that system. The authors illustrate useful types of models through four examples, addressing issues of transportation package allocation, fleet sizing, routing/scheduling, and emergency responder location. The overall vision for the advanced logistics management system, and the specific examples of potential capabilities, provide the basis for a conclusion that such a system would meet a critical DOE need in the area of radioactive material and waste transportation

Transportation system modeling and simulation in support of logistics and operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshimura, R.H.; Kjeldgaard, E.A.; Turnquist, M.A.; List, G.F.

1998-01-01

Effective management of DOE's transportation operations requires better data than are currently available, a more integrated management structure for making transportation decisions, and decision support tools to provide needed analysis capabilities. This paper describes a vision of an advanced logistics management system for DOE, and the rationale for developing improved modeling and simulation capability as an integral part of that system. We illustrate useful types of models through four examples, addressing issues of transportation package allocation, fleet sizing, routing/Scheduling, and emergency responder location. The overall vision for the advanced logistics management system, and the specific examples of potential capabilities, provide the basis for a conclusion that such a system would meet a critical DOE need in the area of radioactive material and waste transportation. (authors)

Modeling of Volatility with Non-linear Time Series Model

OpenAIRE

Kim Song Yon; Kim Mun Chol

2013-01-01

In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its parameter estimation is studied.

Applicability of linear and non-linear potential flow models on a Wavestar float

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bozonnet, Pauline; Dupin, Victor; Tona, Paolino

2017-01-01

as a model based on non-linear potential flow theory and weakscatterer hypothesis are successively considered. Simple tests, such as dip tests, decay tests and captive tests enable to highlight the improvements obtained with the introduction of nonlinearities. Float motion under wave actions and without...... control action, limited to small amplitude motion with a single float, is well predicted by the numerical models, including the linear one. Still, float velocity is better predicted by accounting for non-linear hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces.......Numerical models based on potential flow theory, including different types of nonlinearities are compared and validated against experimental data for the Wavestar wave energy converter technology. Exact resolution of the rotational motion, non-linear hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces as well...

Revenue-Sharing Contract Models for Logistics Service Supply Chains with Mass Customization Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weihua Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The revenue-sharing contract is one of the most important supply chain coordination contracts; it has been applied in various supply chains. However, studies related to service supply chains with mass customization (MC are lacking. Considering the equity of benefit distribution between the members of service supply chains, in this paper, we designed two revenue-sharing contracts. The first contract for the maximum equity of a single logistics service integrator (LSI and single functional logistics service provider (FLSP in a two-echelon logistics service supply chain was designed by introducing the fair entropy function (“one to one” model. Furthermore, the method is extended to a more complex supply chain, which consists of a single LSI and multiple FLSPs. A new contract was designed not only for considering the equity of an LSI and each FLSP but also for the equity between each FLSP (“one to N” model. The “one to one” model in three-echelon LSSC is also provided. The result exemplifies that, whether in the “one to one” model or “one to N” model, there exists a best interval of customized level when the revenue-sharing coefficient reaches its maximum.

Forecasting Volatility of Dhaka Stock Exchange: Linear Vs Non-linear models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masudul Islam

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Prior information about a financial market is very essential for investor to invest money on parches share from the stock market which can strengthen the economy. The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock indexes future volatility. The forecasting models that employed from simple to relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock indexes volatility, the moving average model ranks first using root mean square error, mean absolute percent error, Theil-U and Linex loss function  criteria. We also examine five nonlinear models. These models are ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH and restricted GARCH models. We find that nonlinear models failed to dominate linear models utilizing different error measurement criteria and moving average model appears to be the best. Then we forecast the next two months future stock index price volatility by the best (moving average model.

The Research on Influencing Factors of Medical Logistics Cost Based on ISM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhai Yunkai

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The reason why medical logistics cost remains high is a system problem, this paper analyzes the system through the ISM model. The result presents that medical logistics cost factors have four levels of relationship, primary factor is the national policies, secondary factors are the talent construction and pharmaceutical enterprise scale, Intermediate factors are medical information management system and inventory cost, the key factors are transportation cost and distribution center location. Finally, according to the four levels of relationship, this paper put forward specific suggestions to reduce logistics cost.

Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2015-01-01

of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Härdle, W.K.; Mammen, E.; Müller, M.D.

1996-01-01

We consider a generalized partially linear model E(Y|X,T) = G{X'b + m(T)} where G is a known function, b is an unknown parameter vector, and m is an unknown function.The paper introduces a test statistic which allows to decide between a parametric and a semiparametric model: (i) m is linear, i.e.

Logistic regression models for polymorphic and antagonistic pleiotropic gene action on human aging and longevity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tan, Qihua; Bathum, L; Christiansen, L

2003-01-01

In this paper, we apply logistic regression models to measure genetic association with human survival for highly polymorphic and pleiotropic genes. By modelling genotype frequency as a function of age, we introduce a logistic regression model with polytomous responses to handle the polymorphic...... situation. Genotype and allele-based parameterization can be used to investigate the modes of gene action and to reduce the number of parameters, so that the power is increased while the amount of multiple testing minimized. A binomial logistic regression model with fractional polynomials is used to capture...... the age-dependent or antagonistic pleiotropic effects. The models are applied to HFE genotype data to assess the effects on human longevity by different alleles and to detect if an age-dependent effect exists. Application has shown that these methods can serve as useful tools in searching for important...

HERITABILITY AND BREEDING VALUE OF SHEEP FERTILITY ESTIMATED BY MEANS OF THE GIBBS SAMPLING METHOD USING THE LINEAR AND THRESHOLD MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DARIUSZ Piwczynski

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The research was carried out on 4,030 Polish Merino ewes born in the years 1991- 2001, kept in 15 flocks from the Pomorze and Kujawy region. Fertility of ewes in subsequent reproduction seasons was analysed with the use of multiple logistic regression. The research showed that there is a statistical influence of the flock, year of birth, age of dam, flock year interaction of birth on the ewes fertility. In order to estimate the genetic parameters, the Gibbs sampling method was applied, using the univariate animal models, both linear as well as threshold. Estimates of fertility depending on the model equalled 0.067 to 0.104, whereas the estimates of repeatability equalled respectively: 0.076 and 0.139. The obtained genetic parameters were then used to estimate the breeding values of the animals in terms of controlled trait (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction method using linear and threshold models. The obtained animal breeding values rankings in respect of the same trait with the use of linear and threshold models were strongly correlated with each other (rs = 0.972. Negative genetic trends of fertility (0.01-0.08% per year were found.

Incorporating Logistics in Freight Transport Demand Models: State-of-the-Art and Research Opportunities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tavasszy, L.A.; Ruijgrok, K.; Davydenko, I.

2012-01-01

Freight transport demand is a demand derived from all the activities needed to move goods between locations of production to locations of consumption, including trade, logistics and transportation. A good representation of logistics in freight transport demand models allows us to predict the effects

Investigation of various growth mechanisms of solid tumour growth within the linear-quadratic model for radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McAneney, H; O'Rourke, S F C

2007-01-01

The standard linear-quadratic survival model for radiotherapy is used to investigate different schedules of radiation treatment planning to study how these may be affected by different tumour repopulation kinetics between treatments. The laws for tumour cell repopulation include the logistic and Gompertz models and this extends the work of Wheldon et al (1977 Br. J. Radiol. 50 681), which was concerned with the case of exponential re-growth between treatments. Here we also consider the restricted exponential model. This has been successfully used by Panetta and Adam (1995 Math. Comput. Modelling 22 67) in the case of chemotherapy treatment planning.Treatment schedules investigated include standard fractionation of daily treatments, weekday treatments, accelerated fractionation, optimized uniform schedules and variation of the dosage and α/β ratio, where α and β are radiobiological parameters for the tumour tissue concerned. Parameters for these treatment strategies are extracted from the literature on advanced head and neck cancer, prostate cancer, as well as radiosensitive parameters. Standardized treatment protocols are also considered. Calculations based on the present analysis indicate that even with growth laws scaled to mimic initial growth, such that growth mechanisms are comparable, variation in survival fraction to orders of magnitude emerged. Calculations show that the logistic and exponential models yield similar results in tumour eradication. By comparison the Gompertz model calculations indicate that tumours described by this law result in a significantly poorer prognosis for tumour eradication than either the exponential or logistic models. The present study also shows that the faster the tumour growth rate and the higher the repair capacity of the cell line, the greater the variation in outcome of the survival fraction. Gaps in treatment, planned or unplanned, also accentuate the differences of the survival fraction given alternative growth

Model Predictive Control for Linear Complementarity and Extended Linear Complementarity Systems

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Bambang Riyanto

2005-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose model predictive control method for linear complementarity and extended linear complementarity systems by formulating optimization along prediction horizon as mixed integer quadratic program. Such systems contain interaction between continuous dynamics and discrete event systems, and therefore, can be categorized as hybrid systems. As linear complementarity and extended linear complementarity systems finds applications in different research areas, such as impact mechanical systems, traffic control and process control, this work will contribute to the development of control design method for those areas as well, as shown by three given examples.

A Novel Imbalanced Data Classification Approach Based on Logistic Regression and Fisher Discriminant

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Baofeng Shi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce an imbalanced data classification approach based on logistic regression significant discriminant and Fisher discriminant. First of all, a key indicators extraction model based on logistic regression significant discriminant and correlation analysis is derived to extract features for customer classification. Secondly, on the basis of the linear weighted utilizing Fisher discriminant, a customer scoring model is established. And then, a customer rating model where the customer number of all ratings follows normal distribution is constructed. The performance of the proposed model and the classical SVM classification method are evaluated in terms of their ability to correctly classify consumers as default customer or nondefault customer. Empirical results using the data of 2157 customers in financial engineering suggest that the proposed approach better performance than the SVM model in dealing with imbalanced data classification. Moreover, our approach contributes to locating the qualified customers for the banks and the bond investors.

The Relationship between Logistics Sophistication and Drivers of the Outsourcing of Logistics Activities

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Peter Wanke

2008-10-01

Full Text Available A strong link has been established between operational excellence and the degree of sophistication of logistics organization, a function of factors such as performance monitoring, investment in Information Technology [IT] and the formalization of logistics organization, as proposed in the Bowersox, Daugherty, Dröge, Germain and Rogers (1992 Leading Edge model. At the same time, shippers have been increasingly outsourcing their logistics activities to third party providers. This paper, based on a survey with large Brazilian shippers, addresses a gap in the literature by investigating the relationship between dimensions of logistics organization sophistication and drivers of logistics outsourcing. To this end, the dimensions behind the logistics sophistication construct were first investigated. Results from factor analysis led to the identification of six dimensions of logistics sophistication. By means of multivariate logistical regression analyses it was possible to relate some of these dimensions, such as the formalization of the logistics organization, to certain drivers of the outsourcing of logistics activities of Brazilian shippers, such as cost savings. These results indicate the possibility of segmenting shippers according to characteristics of their logistics organization, which may be particularly useful to logistics service providers.

The use of logistic regression in modelling the distributions of bird ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The method of logistic regression was used to model the observed geographical distribution patterns of bird species in Swaziland in relation to a set of environmental variables. Reporting rates derived from bird atlas data are used as an index of population densities. This is justified in part by the success of the modelling ...

Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

2009-01-01

We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

A fuzzy multi-objective optimization model for sustainable reverse logistics network design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Govindan, Kannan; Paam, Parichehr; Abtahi, Amir Reza

2016-01-01

Decreasing the environmental impact, increasing the degree of social responsibility, and considering the economic motivations of organizations are three significant features in designing a reverse logistics network under sustainability respects. Developing a model, which can simultaneously consider...... a multi-echelon multi-period multi-objective model for a sustainable reverse logistics network. To reflect all aspects of sustainability, we try to minimize the present value of costs, as well as environmental impacts, and optimize the social responsibility as objective functions of the model. In order...... these environmental, social, and economic aspects and their indicators, is an important problem for both researchers and practitioners. In this paper, we try to address this comprehensive approach by using indicators for measurement of aforementioned aspects and by applying fuzzy mathematical programming to design...

Total Logistic Plant Solutions

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Dusan Dorcak

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The Total Logistics Plant Solutions, plant logistics system - TLPS, based on the philosophy of advanced control processes enables complex coordination of business processes and flows and the management and scheduling of production in the appropriate production plans and planning periods. Main attributes of TLPS is to create a comprehensive, multi-level, enterprise logistics information system, with a certain degree of intelligence, which accepts the latest science and research results in the field of production technology and logistics. Logistic model of company understands as a system of mutually transforming flows of materials, energy, information, finance, which is realized by chain activities and operations

Logistic and linear regression model documentation for statistical relations between continuous real-time and discrete water-quality constituents in the Kansas River, Kansas, July 2012 through June 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Guy M.; Graham, Jennifer L.

2016-04-06

The Kansas River is a primary source of drinking water for about 800,000 people in northeastern Kansas. Source-water supplies are treated by a combination of chemical and physical processes to remove contaminants before distribution. Advanced notification of changing water-quality conditions and cyanobacteria and associated toxin and taste-and-odor compounds provides drinking-water treatment facilities time to develop and implement adequate treatment strategies. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office (funded in part through the Kansas State Water Plan Fund), and the City of Lawrence, the City of Topeka, the City of Olathe, and Johnson County Water One, began a study in July 2012 to develop statistical models at two Kansas River sites located upstream from drinking-water intakes. Continuous water-quality monitors have been operated and discrete-water quality samples have been collected on the Kansas River at Wamego (USGS site number 06887500) and De Soto (USGS site number 06892350) since July 2012. Continuous and discrete water-quality data collected during July 2012 through June 2015 were used to develop statistical models for constituents of interest at the Wamego and De Soto sites. Logistic models to continuously estimate the probability of occurrence above selected thresholds were developed for cyanobacteria, microcystin, and geosmin. Linear regression models to continuously estimate constituent concentrations were developed for major ions, dissolved solids, alkalinity, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus species), suspended sediment, indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli, fecal coliform, and enterococci), and actinomycetes bacteria. These models will be used to provide real-time estimates of the probability that cyanobacteria and associated compounds exceed thresholds and of the concentrations of other water-quality constituents in the Kansas River. The models documented in this report are useful for characterizing changes

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Long S.

1986-01-01

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Linear approximation model network and its formation via ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

To overcome the deficiency of `local model network' (LMN) techniques, an alternative `linear approximation model' (LAM) network approach is proposed. Such a network models a nonlinear or practical system with multiple linear models fitted along operating trajectories, where individual models are simply networked ...

Composite Linear Models | Division of Cancer Prevention

Science.gov (United States)

By Stuart G. Baker The composite linear models software is a matrix approach to compute maximum likelihood estimates and asymptotic standard errors for models for incomplete multinomial data. It implements the method described in Baker SG. Composite linear models for incomplete multinomial data. Statistics in Medicine 1994;13:609-622. The software includes a library of thirty

Logistic regression for dichotomized counts.

Science.gov (United States)

Preisser, John S; Das, Kalyan; Benecha, Habtamu; Stamm, John W

2016-12-01

Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren. © The Author(s) 2014.

A hybrid solution approach for a multi-objective closed-loop logistics network under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Mehrbod, Mehrdad; Tu, Nan; Miao, Lixin

2015-06-01

The design of closed-loop logistics (forward and reverse logistics) has attracted growing attention with the stringent pressures of customer expectations, environmental concerns and economic factors. This paper considers a multi-product, multi-period and multi-objective closed-loop logistics network model with regard to facility expansion as a facility location-allocation problem, which more closely approximates real-world conditions. A multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming formulation is linearized by defining new variables and adding new constraints to the model. By considering the aforementioned model under uncertainty, this paper develops a hybrid solution approach by combining an interactive fuzzy goal programming approach and robust counterpart optimization based on three well-known robust counterpart optimization formulations. Finally, this paper compares the results of the three formulations using different test scenarios and parameter-sensitive analysis in terms of the quality of the final solution, CPU time, the level of conservatism, the degree of closeness to the ideal solution, the degree of balance involved in developing a compromise solution, and satisfaction degree.

New analytical techniques for traffic management on the basis of system studies in logistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Павлович Кіркін

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In today's market conditions, it is necessary for enterprises to constantly maintain their competitiveness. This is achieved through raising customer service standards and use of the latest management techniques. In most cases, enterprises adhere to the logistic principles to optimize production. Over time, however, the development of logistics resulted in emergence of its principal subdivisions: transport, storage, etc. Thus, nowadays there are several parallel methodological developments in the field of logistics and making up logistics chains and systems at different stages of the life cycle of the goods. System research in the field of warehouse logistics showed that the majority of its analytical models of management are based on task conflict. Similar tasks of managing traffic flows in transport logistics are solved by methods of SMO, graph theory, linear programming and differential equations of state etc. These methods are not more accurate than the methods of warehouse logistics, have similar important assumptions and simplifications, and require appropriate mathematical training and knowledge in the field of transport, and sometimes lack visible correlation with economic performance. New analytical techniques for the management of transportation systems based on task conflict will reduce the time and resources for optimization and finding solutions. Methods of warehousing logistics can only be used for the continuous transport quantities (intensity, speed, performance, capacity, execution of works, etc.. In the static condition the search for the optimal service intensity can be found in warehouse logistics. In the study of object in dynamics it is better to use transport approach. Some problems such as supplement of warehouse logistics models with elements of the transport task, are still to be decided

Resource Symmetric Dispatch Model for Internet of Things on Advanced Logistics

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Guofeng Qin

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Business applications in advanced logistics service are highly concurrent. In this paper, we propose a resource symmetric dispatch model for the concurrent and cooperative tasks of the Internet of Things. In the model, the terminals receive and deliver commands, data, and information with mobile networks, wireless networks, and sensor networks. The data and information are classified and processed by the clustering servers in the cloud service platform. The cluster service, resource dispatch, and load balance are cooperative for management and monitoring of every application case during the logistics service lifecycle. In order to support the high performance of cloud service, resource symmetric dispatch algorithm among clustering servers and load balancing method among multi-cores in one server, including NIO (Non-blocking Input/Output and RMI (Remote Method Invocation are utilized to dispatch the cooperation of computation and service resources.

An integrated conceptual framework for selecting reverse logistics providers in the presence of vagueness

Science.gov (United States)

Fırdolaş, Tugba; Önüt, Semih; Kongar, Elif

2005-11-01

In recent years, relating organization's attitude towards sustainable development, environmental management is gaining an increasing interest among researchers in supply chain management. With regard to a long term requirement of a shift from a linear economy towards a cycle economy, businesses should be motivated to embrace change brought about by consumers, government, competition, and ethical responsibility. To achieve business goals and objectives, a company must reply to increasing consumer demand for "green" products and implement environmentally responsible plans. Reverse logistics is an activity within organizations delegated to the customer service function, where customers with warranted or defective products would return them to their supplier. Emergence of reverse logistics enables to provide a competitive advantage and significant return on investment with an indirect effect on profitability. Many organizations are hiring third-party providers to implement reverse logistics programs designed to retain value by getting products back. Reverse logistics vendors play an important role in helping organizations in closing the loop for products offered by the organizations. In this regard, the selection of third-party providers issue is increasingly becoming an area of reverse logistics concept and practice. This study aims to assist managers in determining which third-party logistics provider to collaborate in the reverse logistics process with an alternative approach based on an integrated model using neural networks and fuzzy logic. An illustrative case study is discussed and the best provider is identified through the solution of this model.

An Investigation of Invariance Properties of One, Two and Three Parameter Logistic Item Response Theory Models

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O.A. Awopeju

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The study investigated the invariance properties of one, two and three parame-ter logistic item response theory models. It examined the best fit among one parameter logistic (1PL, two-parameter logistic (2PL and three-parameter logistic (3PL IRT models for SSCE, 2008 in Mathematics. It also investigated the degree of invariance of the IRT models based item difficulty parameter estimates in SSCE in Mathematics across different samples of examinees and examined the degree of invariance of the IRT models based item discrimination estimates in SSCE in Mathematics across different samples of examinees. In order to achieve the set objectives, 6000 students (3000 males and 3000 females were drawn from the population of 35262 who wrote the 2008 paper 1 Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (SSCE in Mathematics organized by National Examination Council (NECO. The item difficulty and item discrimination parameter estimates from CTT and IRT were tested for invariance using BLOG MG 3 and correlation analysis was achieved using SPSS version 20. The research findings were that two parameter model IRT item difficulty and discrimination parameter estimates exhibited invariance property consistently across different samples and that 2-parameter model was suitable for all samples of examinees unlike one-parameter model and 3-parameter model.

Quantitative Models for Reverse Logistics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Fleischmann (Moritz)

2000-01-01

markdownabstractEconomic, marketing, and legislative considerations are increasingly leading companies to take back and recover their products after use. From a logistics perspective, these initiatives give rise to new goods flows from the user back to the producer. The management of these goods

Comparison of logistic regression and neural models in predicting the outcome of biopsy in breast cancer from MRI findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdolmaleki, P.; Yarmohammadi, M.; Gity, M.

2004-01-01

Background: We designed an algorithmic model based on regression analysis and a non-algorithmic model based on the Artificial Neural Network. Materials and methods: The ability of these models was compared together in clinical application to differentiate malignant from benign breast tumors in a study group of 161 patient's records. Each patient's record consisted of 6 subjective features extracted from MRI appearance. These findings were enclosed as features extracted for an Artificial Neural Network as well as a logistic regression model to predict biopsy outcome. After both models had been trained perfectly on samples (n=100), the validation samples (n=61) were presented to the trained network as well as the established logistic regression models. Finally, the diagnostic performance of models were compared to the that of the radiologist in terms of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy, using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: The average out put of the Artificial Neural Network yielded a perfect sensitivity (98%) and high accuracy (90%) similar to that one of an expert radiologist (96% and 92%) while specificity was smaller than that (67%) verses 80%). The output of the logistic regression model using significant features showed improvement in specificity from 60% for the logistic regression model using all features to 93% for the reduced logistic regression model, keeping the accuracy around 90%. Conclusion: Results show that Artificial Neural Network and logistic regression model prove the relationship between extracted morphological features and biopsy results. Using statistically significant variables reduced logistic regression model outperformed of Artificial Neural Network with remarkable specificity while keeping high sensitivity is achieved

A multiagent simulator for supporting logistic decisions of unloading petroleum ships in habors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robison Cris Brito

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This work presents and evaluates the performance of a simulation model based on multiagent system technology in order to support logistic decisions in a harbor from oil supply chain. The main decisions are concerned to pier allocation, oil discharge, storage tanks management and refinery supply by a pipeline. The real elements as ships, piers, pipelines, and refineries are modeled as agents, and they negotiate by auctions to move oil in this system. The simulation results are compared with results obtained with an optimization mathematical model based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP. Both models are able to find optimal solutions or close to the optimal solution depending on the problem size. In problems with several elements, the multiagent model can find solutions in seconds, while the MILP model presents very high computational time to find the optimal solution. In some situations, the MILP model results in out of memory error. Test scenarios demonstrate the usefulness of the multiagent based simulator in supporting decision taken concerning the logistic in harbors.

Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.

2007-01-01

Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics

A Reverse Logistics Network Model for Handling Returned Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nizar Zaarour

2014-07-01

obtained the optimal solution at a fraction of the time used by the traditional nonlinear model and solution procedure, as well as the ability to handle up to 150 customers as compared to 30 in the conventional nonlinear model. As such, the proposed linear model is more suitable for actual industry applications than the existing models.

OWI transportation/logistics program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shappert, L.B.; Joy, D.S.; Heiskell, M.M.; Turner, D.W.

1978-01-01

In development of a comprehensive plan to assure the availability of a transport system by 1985 capable of moving commercial radioactive wastes to federal waste repositories, a series of concerns were identified as having the potential to interfere seriously with the overall objective. These are tabulated and briefly reviewed. Activities to counteract these concerns were formulated. Logistics models were then developed. The spent fuel logistics model is described

Heterotic sigma models and non-linear strings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, C.M.

1986-01-01

The two-dimensional supersymmetric non-linear sigma models are examined with respect to the heterotic string. The paper was presented at the workshop on :Supersymmetry and its applications', Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1985. The non-linear sigma model with Wess-Zumino-type term, the coupling of the fermionic superfields to the sigma model, super-conformal invariance, and the supersymmetric string, are all discussed. (U.K.)

Comparison of linear and non-linear models for the adsorption of fluoride onto geo-material: limonite.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahin, Rubina; Tapadia, Kavita

2015-01-01

The three widely used isotherms Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin were examined in an experiment using fluoride (F⁻) ion adsorption on a geo-material (limonite) at four different temperatures by linear and non-linear models. Comparison of linear and non-linear regression models were given in selecting the optimum isotherm for the experimental results. The coefficient of determination, r², was used to select the best theoretical isotherm. The four Langmuir linear equations (1, 2, 3, and 4) are discussed. Langmuir isotherm parameters obtained from the four Langmuir linear equations using the linear model differed but they were the same when using the nonlinear model. Langmuir-2 isotherm is one of the linear forms, and it had the highest coefficient of determination (r² = 0.99) compared to the other Langmuir linear equations (1, 3 and 4) in linear form, whereas, for non-linear, Langmuir-4 fitted best among all the isotherms because it had the highest coefficient of determination (r² = 0.99). The results showed that the non-linear model may be a better way to obtain the parameters. In the present work, the thermodynamic parameters show that the absorption of fluoride onto limonite is both spontaneous (ΔG 0). Scanning electron microscope and X-ray diffraction images also confirm the adsorption of F⁻ ion onto limonite. The isotherm and kinetic study reveals that limonite can be used as an adsorbent for fluoride removal. In future we can develop new technology for fluoride removal in large scale by using limonite which is cost-effective, eco-friendly and is easily available in the study area.

Logistics Innovation Process Revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gammelgaard, Britta; Su, Shong-Iee Ivan; Yang, Su-Lan

2011-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to learn more about logistics innovation processes and their implications for the focal organization as well as the supply chain, especially suppliers. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical basis of the study is a longitudinal action research project...... that was triggered by the practical needs of new ways of handling material flows of a hospital. This approach made it possible to revisit theory on logistics innovation process. Findings – Apart from the tangible benefits reported to the case hospital, five findings can be extracted from this study: the logistics...... innovation process model may include not just customers but also suppliers; logistics innovation in buyer-supplier relations may serve as an alternative to outsourcing; logistics innovation processes are dynamic and may improve supplier partnerships; logistics innovations in the supply chain are as dependent...

Logistic chaotic maps for binary numbers generations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanso, Ali; Smaoui, Nejib

2009-01-01

Two pseudorandom binary sequence generators, based on logistic chaotic maps intended for stream cipher applications, are proposed. The first is based on a single one-dimensional logistic map which exhibits random, noise-like properties at given certain parameter values, and the second is based on a combination of two logistic maps. The encryption step proposed in both algorithms consists of a simple bitwise XOR operation of the plaintext binary sequence with the keystream binary sequence to produce the ciphertext binary sequence. A threshold function is applied to convert the floating-point iterates into binary form. Experimental results show that the produced sequences possess high linear complexity and very good statistical properties. The systems are put forward for security evaluation by the cryptographic committees.

A production inventory model with exponential demand rate and reverse logistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritu Raj

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated production inventory model for reworkable items with exponential demand rate. This is a three-layer supply chain model with perspectives of supplier, producer and retailer. Supplier delivers raw material to the producer and finished goods to the retailer. We consider perfect and imperfect quality products, product reliability and reworking of imperfect items. After screening, defective items reworked at a cost just after the regular manufacturing schedule. At the beginning, the manufacturing system starts produce perfect items, after some time the manufacturing system can undergo into “out-of-control” situation from “in-control” situation, which is controlled by reverse logistic technique. This paper deliberates the effects of business strategies like optimum order size of raw material, exponential demand rate, production rate is demand dependent, idle times and reverse logistics for an integrated marketing system. Mathematica is used to develop the optimal solution of production rate and raw material order for maximum expected average profit. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis is illustrated to validate the model.

Non linear viscoelastic models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agerkvist, Finn T.

2011-01-01

Viscoelastic eects are often present in loudspeaker suspensions, this can be seen in the displacement transfer function which often shows a frequency dependent value below the resonance frequency. In this paper nonlinear versions of the standard linear solid model (SLS) are investigated....... The simulations show that the nonlinear version of the Maxwell SLS model can result in a time dependent small signal stiness while the Kelvin Voight version does not....

Survival Analysis of a Nonautonomous Logistic Model with Stochastic Perturbation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun Lu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Taking white noise into account, a stochastic nonautonomous logistic model is proposed and investigated. Sufficient conditions for extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, stochastic permanence, and global asymptotic stability are established. Moreover, the threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Finally, we introduce some numerical simulink graphics to illustrate our main results.

Accounting for Slipping and Other False Negatives in Logistic Models of Student Learning

Science.gov (United States)

MacLellan, Christopher J.; Liu, Ran; Koedinger, Kenneth R.

2015-01-01

Additive Factors Model (AFM) and Performance Factors Analysis (PFA) are two popular models of student learning that employ logistic regression to estimate parameters and predict performance. This is in contrast to Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) which uses a Hidden Markov Model formalism. While all three models tend to make similar predictions,…

Genetic parameters for racing records in trotters using linear and generalized linear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Suontama, M; van der Werf, J H J; Juga, J; Ojala, M

2012-09-01

Heritability and repeatability and genetic and phenotypic correlations were estimated for trotting race records with linear and generalized linear models using 510,519 records on 17,792 Finnhorses and 513,161 records on 25,536 Standardbred trotters. Heritability and repeatability were estimated for single racing time and earnings traits with linear models, and logarithmic scale was used for racing time and fourth-root scale for earnings to correct for nonnormality. Generalized linear models with a gamma distribution were applied for single racing time and with a multinomial distribution for single earnings traits. In addition, genetic parameters for annual earnings were estimated with linear models on the observed and fourth-root scales. Racing success traits of single placings, winnings, breaking stride, and disqualifications were analyzed using generalized linear models with a binomial distribution. Estimates of heritability were greatest for racing time, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.34. Estimates of heritability were low for single earnings with all distributions, ranging from 0.01 to 0.09. Annual earnings were closer to normal distribution than single earnings. Heritability estimates were moderate for annual earnings on the fourth-root scale, 0.19 for Finnhorses and 0.27 for Standardbred trotters. Heritability estimates for binomial racing success variables ranged from 0.04 to 0.12, being greatest for winnings and least for breaking stride. Genetic correlations among racing traits were high, whereas phenotypic correlations were mainly low to moderate, except correlations between racing time and earnings were high. On the basis of a moderate heritability and moderate to high repeatability for racing time and annual earnings, selection of horses for these traits is effective when based on a few repeated records. Because of high genetic correlations, direct selection for racing time and annual earnings would also result in good genetic response in racing success.

Random effect selection in generalised linear models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Denwood, Matt; Houe, Hans; Forkman, Björn

We analysed abattoir recordings of meat inspection codes with possible relevance to onfarm animal welfare in cattle. Random effects logistic regression models were used to describe individual-level data obtained from 461,406 cattle slaughtered in Denmark. Our results demonstrate that the largest...

Model-Independent Evaluation of Tumor Markers and a Logistic-Tree Approach to Diagnostic Decision Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weizeng Ni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Sensitivity and specificity of using individual tumor markers hardly meet the clinical requirement. This challenge gave rise to many efforts, e.g., combing multiple tumor markers and employing machine learning algorithms. However, results from different studies are often inconsistent, which are partially attributed to the use of different evaluation criteria. Also, the wide use of model-dependent validation leads to high possibility of data overfitting when complex models are used for diagnosis. We propose two model-independent criteria, namely, area under the curve (AUC and Relief to evaluate the diagnostic values of individual and multiple tumor markers, respectively. For diagnostic decision support, we propose the use of logistic-tree which combines decision tree and logistic regression. Application on a colorectal cancer dataset shows that the proposed evaluation criteria produce results that are consistent with current knowledge. Furthermore, the simple and highly interpretable logistic-tree has diagnostic performance that is competitive with other complex models.

Linear causal modeling with structural equations

CERN Document Server

Mulaik, Stanley A

2009-01-01

Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

TENSOR DECOMPOSITIONS AND SPARSE LOG-LINEAR MODELS

Science.gov (United States)

Johndrow, James E.; Bhattacharya, Anirban; Dunson, David B.

2017-01-01

Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. We derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions. PMID:29332971

SUPPLIES COSTS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY WITH APPLICATION OF MEASUREMENT MODEL OF LOGISTICS COSTS

OpenAIRE

Ana Paula Ferreira Alves; José Vanderlei Silva Borba; Gilberto Tavares dos Santos; Artur Roberto Gibbon

2013-01-01

One of the main reasons for the difficulty in adopting an integrated method of calculation of logistics costs is still a lack of adequate information about costs. The management of the supply chain and identify its costs can provide information for their managers, with regard to decision making, generating competitive advantage. Some models of calculating logistics costs are proposed by Uelze (1974), Dias (1996), Goldratt (2002), Christopher (2007), Castiglioni (2009) and Borba & Gibbon (2009...

Accessibility to Nodes of Interest: Demographic Weighting the Logistic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gioacchino DE CANDIA

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This research fits into the genre of spatial analysis, aimed at better understanding of population dynamics in relation to the presence and distribution of infrastructure and related services. Specifically, the analysis uses a model of the gravitational type, based on the assumption of the impedance (attractiveness territorial, based on a curve of type logistics to determine the accessibility of the same, to which to add a system of weights. In this sense, the model was weighted according to the population, to determine the level of “population served” in terms of infrastructure and related services included in the model.

The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yuanyuan; Li, Hongkai; Sun, Xiaoru; Su, Ping; Wang, Tingting; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Yanxun; Xue, Fuzhong

2017-12-28

Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM) were compared. The "do-calculus" was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal strategy was to adjust for the parent nodes of outcome, which

The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanyuan Yu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Methods Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM were compared. The “do-calculus” was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Results Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal

On D-branes from gauged linear sigma models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Govindarajan, S.; Jayaraman, T.; Sarkar, T.

2001-01-01

We study both A-type and B-type D-branes in the gauged linear sigma model by considering worldsheets with boundary. The boundary conditions on the matter and vector multiplet fields are first considered in the large-volume phase/non-linear sigma model limit of the corresponding Calabi-Yau manifold, where we find that we need to add a contact term on the boundary. These considerations enable to us to derive the boundary conditions in the full gauged linear sigma model, including the addition of the appropriate boundary contact terms, such that these boundary conditions have the correct non-linear sigma model limit. Most of the analysis is for the case of Calabi-Yau manifolds with one Kaehler modulus (including those corresponding to hypersurfaces in weighted projective space), though we comment on possible generalisations

Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

KAUST Repository

Gomes, Diogo A.; De Lima Ribeiro, Ricardo

2013-01-01

In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

KAUST Repository

Gomes, Diogo A.

2013-12-01

In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

Production Logistics Simulation Supported by Process Description Languages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bohács Gábor

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The process description languages are used in the business may be useful in the optimization of logistics processes too. The process description languages would be the obvious solution for process control, to handle the main sources of faults and to give a correct list of what to do during the logistics process. Related to this, firstly, the paper presents the main features of the frequent process description languages. The following section describes the currently most used process modelling languages, in the areas of production and construction logistics. In addition, the paper gives some examples of logistics simulation, as another very important field of logistics system modelling. The main edification of the paper, the logistics simulation supported by process description languages. The paper gives a comparison of a Petri net formal representation and a Simul8 model, through a construction logistics model, as the major contribution of the research.

GIS Application to Define Biomass Collection Points as Sources for Linear Programming of Delivery Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velazquez-Marti, B.; Annevelink, E.

2009-01-01

Much bio-energy can be obtained from wood pruning operations in forests and fruit orchards. Several spatial studies have been carried out for biomass surveys, and many linear programming models have been developed to model the logistics of bio-energy chains. These models can assist in determining

[Logistic regression model of noninvasive prediction for portal hypertensive gastropathy in patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qingliang; Li, Xiaojie; Hu, Kunpeng; Zhao, Kun; Yang, Peisheng; Liu, Bo

2015-05-12

To explore the risk factors of portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG) in patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis and establish a Logistic regression model of noninvasive prediction. The clinical data of 234 hospitalized patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis from March 2012 to March 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. The dependent variable was the occurrence of PHG while the independent variables were screened by binary Logistic analysis. Multivariate Logistic regression was used for further analysis of significant noninvasive independent variables. Logistic regression model was established and odds ratio was calculated for each factor. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of model were evaluated by the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC). According to univariate Logistic regression, the risk factors included hepatic dysfunction, albumin (ALB), bilirubin (TB), prothrombin time (PT), platelet (PLT), white blood cell (WBC), portal vein diameter, spleen index, splenic vein diameter, diameter ratio, PLT to spleen volume ratio, esophageal varices (EV) and gastric varices (GV). Multivariate analysis showed that hepatic dysfunction (X1), TB (X2), PLT (X3) and splenic vein diameter (X4) were the major occurring factors for PHG. The established regression model was Logit P=-2.667+2.186X1-2.167X2+0.725X3+0.976X4. The accuracy of model for PHG was 79.1% with a sensitivity of 77.2% and a specificity of 80.8%. Hepatic dysfunction, TB, PLT and splenic vein diameter are risk factors for PHG and the noninvasive predicted Logistic regression model was Logit P=-2.667+2.186X1-2.167X2+0.725X3+0.976X4.

Modeling Energy Efficiency As A Green Logistics Component In Vehicle Assembly Line

Science.gov (United States)

Oumer, Abduaziz; Mekbib Atnaw, Samson; Kie Cheng, Jack; Singh, Lakveer

2016-11-01

This paper uses System Dynamics (SD) simulation to investigate the concept green logistics in terms of energy efficiency in automotive industry. The car manufacturing industry is considered to be one of the highest energy consuming industries. An efficient decision making model is proposed that capture the impacts of strategic decisions on energy consumption and environmental sustainability. The sources of energy considered in this research are electricity and fuel; which are the two main types of energy sources used in a typical vehicle assembly plant. The model depicts the performance measurement for process- specific energy measures of painting, welding, and assembling processes. SD is the chosen simulation method and the main green logistics issues considered are Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission and energy utilization. The model will assist decision makers acquire an in-depth understanding of relationship between high level planning and low level operation activities on production, environmental impacts and costs associated. The results of the SD model signify the existence of positive trade-offs between green practices of energy efficiency and the reduction of CO2 emission.

Decomposable log-linear models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksen, Poul Svante

can be characterized by a structured set of conditional independencies between some variables given some other variables. We term the new model class decomposable log-linear models, which is illustrated to be a much richer class than decomposable graphical models.It covers a wide range of non...... The present paper considers discrete probability models with exact computational properties. In relation to contingency tables this means closed form expressions of the maksimum likelihood estimate and its distribution. The model class includes what is known as decomposable graphicalmodels, which......-hierarchical models, models with structural zeroes, models described by quasi independence and models for level merging. Also, they have a very natural interpretation as they may be formulated by a structured set of conditional independencies between two events given some other event. In relation to contingency...

Logistics Management: New trends in the Reverse Logistics

Science.gov (United States)

Antonyová, A.; Antony, P.; Soewito, B.

2016-04-01

Present level and quality of the environment are directly dependent on our access to natural resources, as well as their sustainability. In particular production activities and phenomena associated with it have a direct impact on the future of our planet. Recycling process, which in large enterprises often becomes an important and integral part of the production program, is usually in small and medium-sized enterprises problematic. We can specify a few factors, which have direct impact on the development and successful application of the effective reverse logistics system. Find the ways to economically acceptable model of reverse logistics, focusing on converting waste materials for renewable energy, is the task in progress.

Study on Maritime Logistics Warehousing Center Model and Precision Marketing Strategy Optimization Based on Fuzzy Method and Neural Network Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao Kefeng

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The bulk commodity, different with the retail goods, has a uniqueness in the location selection, the chosen of transportation program and the decision objectives. How to make optimal decisions in the facility location, requirement distribution, shipping methods and the route selection and establish an effective distribution system to reduce the cost has become a burning issue for the e-commerce logistics, which is worthy to be deeply and systematically solved. In this paper, Logistics warehousing center model and precision marketing strategy optimization based on fuzzy method and neural network model is proposed to solve this problem. In addition, we have designed principles of the fuzzy method and neural network model to solve the proposed model because of its complexity. Finally, we have solved numerous examples to compare the results of lingo and Matlab, we use Matlab and lingo just to check the result and to illustrate the numerical example, we can find from the result, the multi-objective model increases logistics costs and improves the efficiency of distribution time.

A Bayesian goodness of fit test and semiparametric generalization of logistic regression with measurement data.

Science.gov (United States)

Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

2013-06-01

Logistic regression is a popular tool for risk analysis in medical and population health science. With continuous response data, it is common to create a dichotomous outcome for logistic regression analysis by specifying a threshold for positivity. Fitting a linear regression to the nondichotomized response variable assuming a logistic sampling model for the data has been empirically shown to yield more efficient estimates of odds ratios than ordinary logistic regression of the dichotomized endpoint. We illustrate that risk inference is not robust to departures from the parametric logistic distribution. Moreover, the model assumption of proportional odds is generally not satisfied when the condition of a logistic distribution for the data is violated, leading to biased inference from a parametric logistic analysis. We develop novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology for testing goodness of fit of parametric logistic regression with continuous measurement data. The testing procedures hold for any cutoff threshold and our approach simultaneously provides the ability to perform semiparametric risk estimation. Bayes factors are calculated using the Savage-Dickey ratio for testing the null hypothesis of logistic regression versus a semiparametric generalization. We propose a fully Bayesian and a computationally efficient empirical Bayesian approach to testing, and we present methods for semiparametric estimation of risks, relative risks, and odds ratios when parametric logistic regression fails. Theoretical results establish the consistency of the empirical Bayes test. Results from simulated data show that the proposed approach provides accurate inference irrespective of whether parametric assumptions hold or not. Evaluation of risk factors for obesity shows that different inferences are derived from an analysis of a real data set when deviations from a logistic distribution are permissible in a flexible semiparametric framework. © 2013, The International Biometric

Modeling digital switching circuits with linear algebra

CERN Document Server

Thornton, Mitchell A

2014-01-01

Modeling Digital Switching Circuits with Linear Algebra describes an approach for modeling digital information and circuitry that is an alternative to Boolean algebra. While the Boolean algebraic model has been wildly successful and is responsible for many advances in modern information technology, the approach described in this book offers new insight and different ways of solving problems. Modeling the bit as a vector instead of a scalar value in the set {0, 1} allows digital circuits to be characterized with transfer functions in the form of a linear transformation matrix. The use of transf

Variance Function Partially Linear Single-Index Models1.

Science.gov (United States)

Lian, Heng; Liang, Hua; Carroll, Raymond J

2015-01-01

We consider heteroscedastic regression models where the mean function is a partially linear single index model and the variance function depends upon a generalized partially linear single index model. We do not insist that the variance function depend only upon the mean function, as happens in the classical generalized partially linear single index model. We develop efficient and practical estimation methods for the variance function and for the mean function. Asymptotic theory for the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model is developed. Simulations illustrate the results. An empirical example involving ozone levels is used to further illustrate the results, and is shown to be a case where the variance function does not depend upon the mean function.

Regression modeling strategies with applications to linear models, logistic and ordinal regression, and survival analysis

CERN Document Server

Harrell , Jr , Frank E

2015-01-01

This highly anticipated second edition features new chapters and sections, 225 new references, and comprehensive R software. In keeping with the previous edition, this book is about the art and science of data analysis and predictive modeling, which entails choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for fitting nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with "too many variables to analyze and not enough observations," and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap.  The reader will gain a keen understanding of predictive accuracy, and the harm of categorizing continuous predictors or outcomes.  This text realistically...

Logistics, electronic commerce, and the environment

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkis, Joseph; Meade, Laura; Talluri, Srinivas

2002-02-01

Organizations realize that a strong supporting logistics or electronic logistics (e-logistics) function is important from both commercial and consumer perspectives. The implications of e-logistics models and practices cover the forward and reverse logistics functions of organizations. They also have direct and profound impact on the natural environment. This paper will focus on a discussion of forward and reverse e-logistics and their relationship to the natural environment. After discussion of the many pertinent issues in these areas, directions of practice and implications for study and research are then described.

Research on 6R Military Logistics Network

Science.gov (United States)

Jie, Wan; Wen, Wang

The building of military logistics network is an important issue for the construction of new forces. This paper has thrown out a concept model of 6R military logistics network model based on JIT. Then we conceive of axis spoke y logistics centers network, flexible 6R organizational network, lean 6R military information network based grid. And then the strategy and proposal for the construction of the three sub networks of 6Rmilitary logistics network are given.

Fitting multistate transition models with autoregressive logistic regression : Supervised exercise in intermittent claudication

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, S O; Fidler, Vaclav; Kuipers, Wietze D; Hunink, Maria G M

1998-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a model that predicts the outcome of supervised exercise for intermittent claudication. The authors present an example of the use of autoregressive logistic regression for modeling observed longitudinal data. Data were collected from 329 participants in a

Linear latent variable models: the lava-package

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holst, Klaus Kähler; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2013-01-01

are implemented including robust standard errors for clustered correlated data, multigroup analyses, non-linear parameter constraints, inference with incomplete data, maximum likelihood estimation with censored and binary observations, and instrumental variable estimators. In addition an extensive simulation......An R package for specifying and estimating linear latent variable models is presented. The philosophy of the implementation is to separate the model specification from the actual data, which leads to a dynamic and easy way of modeling complex hierarchical structures. Several advanced features...

A secure distributed logistic regression protocol for the detection of rare adverse drug events.

Science.gov (United States)

El Emam, Khaled; Samet, Saeed; Arbuckle, Luk; Tamblyn, Robyn; Earle, Craig; Kantarcioglu, Murat

2013-05-01

There is limited capacity to assess the comparative risks of medications after they enter the market. For rare adverse events, the pooling of data from multiple sources is necessary to have the power and sufficient population heterogeneity to detect differences in safety and effectiveness in genetic, ethnic and clinically defined subpopulations. However, combining datasets from different data custodians or jurisdictions to perform an analysis on the pooled data creates significant privacy concerns that would need to be addressed. Existing protocols for addressing these concerns can result in reduced analysis accuracy and can allow sensitive information to leak. To develop a secure distributed multi-party computation protocol for logistic regression that provides strong privacy guarantees. We developed a secure distributed logistic regression protocol using a single analysis center with multiple sites providing data. A theoretical security analysis demonstrates that the protocol is robust to plausible collusion attacks and does not allow the parties to gain new information from the data that are exchanged among them. The computational performance and accuracy of the protocol were evaluated on simulated datasets. The computational performance scales linearly as the dataset sizes increase. The addition of sites results in an exponential growth in computation time. However, for up to five sites, the time is still short and would not affect practical applications. The model parameters are the same as the results on pooled raw data analyzed in SAS, demonstrating high model accuracy. The proposed protocol and prototype system would allow the development of logistic regression models in a secure manner without requiring the sharing of personal health information. This can alleviate one of the key barriers to the establishment of large-scale post-marketing surveillance programs. We extended the secure protocol to account for correlations among patients within sites through

Resource Symmetric Dispatch Model for Internet of Things on Advanced Logistics

OpenAIRE

Guofeng Qin; Lisheng Wang; Qiyan Li

2016-01-01

Business applications in advanced logistics service are highly concurrent. In this paper, we propose a resource symmetric dispatch model for the concurrent and cooperative tasks of the Internet of Things. In the model, the terminals receive and deliver commands, data, and information with mobile networks, wireless networks, and sensor networks. The data and information are classified and processed by the clustering servers in the cloud service platform. The cluster service, resource dispatch,...

Extinction and quasi-stationarity in the stochastic logistic SIS model

CERN Document Server

Nåsell, Ingemar

2011-01-01

This volume presents explicit approximations of the quasi-stationary distribution and of the expected time to extinction from the state one and from quasi-stationarity for the stochastic logistic SIS model. The approximations are derived separately in three different parameter regions, and then combined into a uniform approximation across all three regions. Subsequently, the results are used to derive thresholds as functions of the population size N.

An order insertion scheduling model of logistics service supply chain considering capacity and time factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Weihua; Yang, Yi; Wang, Shuqing; Liu, Yang

2014-01-01

Order insertion often occurs in the scheduling process of logistics service supply chain (LSSC), which disturbs normal time scheduling especially in the environment of mass customization logistics service. This study analyses order similarity coefficient and order insertion operation process and then establishes an order insertion scheduling model of LSSC with service capacity and time factors considered. This model aims to minimize the average unit volume operation cost of logistics service integrator and maximize the average satisfaction degree of functional logistics service providers. In order to verify the viability and effectiveness of our model, a specific example is numerically analyzed. Some interesting conclusions are obtained. First, along with the increase of completion time delay coefficient permitted by customers, the possible inserting order volume first increases and then trends to be stable. Second, supply chain performance reaches the best when the volume of inserting order is equal to the surplus volume of the normal operation capacity in mass service process. Third, the larger the normal operation capacity in mass service process is, the bigger the possible inserting order's volume will be. Moreover, compared to increasing the completion time delay coefficient, improving the normal operation capacity of mass service process is more useful.

Forecasting inter-urban transport demand for a logistics company: A combined grey–periodic extension model with remnant correction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donghui Wang

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Accurately predicting short-term transport demand for an individual logistics company involved in a competitive market is critical to make short-term operation decisions. This article proposes a combined grey–periodic extension model with remnant correction to forecast the short-term inter-urban transport demand of a logistics company involved in a nationwide competitive market, showing changes in trend and seasonal fluctuations with irregular periods different to the macroeconomic cycle. A basic grey–periodic extension model of an additive pattern, namely, the main combination model, is first constructed to fit the changing trends and the featured seasonal fluctuation periods. In order to improve prediction accuracy and model adaptability, the grey model is repeatedly modelled to fit the remnant tail time series of the main combination model until prediction accuracy is satisfied. The modelling approach is applied to a logistics company engaged in a nationwide less-than-truckload road transportation business in China. The results demonstrate that the proposed modelling approach produces good forecasting results and goodness of fit, also showing good model adaptability to the analysed object in a changing macro environment. This fact makes this modelling approach an option to analyse the short-term transportation demand of an individual logistics company.

Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory

2014-01-01

A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Should metacognition be measured by logistic regression?

Science.gov (United States)

Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

2017-03-01

Are logistic regression slopes suitable to quantify metacognitive sensitivity, i.e. the efficiency with which subjective reports differentiate between correct and incorrect task responses? We analytically show that logistic regression slopes are independent from rating criteria in one specific model of metacognition, which assumes (i) that rating decisions are based on sensory evidence generated independently of the sensory evidence used for primary task responses and (ii) that the distributions of evidence are logistic. Given a hierarchical model of metacognition, logistic regression slopes depend on rating criteria. According to all considered models, regression slopes depend on the primary task criterion. A reanalysis of previous data revealed that massive numbers of trials are required to distinguish between hierarchical and independent models with tolerable accuracy. It is argued that researchers who wish to use logistic regression as measure of metacognitive sensitivity need to control the primary task criterion and rating criteria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A free-knot spline modeling framework for piecewise linear logistic regression in complex samples with body mass index and mortality as an example

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott W. Keith

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper details the design, evaluation, and implementation of a framework for detecting and modeling nonlinearity between a binary outcome and a continuous predictor variable adjusted for covariates in complex samples. The framework provides familiar-looking parameterizations of output in terms of linear slope coefficients and odds ratios. Estimation methods focus on maximum likelihood optimization of piecewise linear free-knot splines formulated as B-splines. Correctly specifying the optimal number and positions of the knots improves the model, but is marked by computational intensity and numerical instability. Our inference methods utilize both parametric and nonparametric bootstrapping. Unlike other nonlinear modeling packages, this framework is designed to incorporate multistage survey sample designs common to nationally representative datasets. We illustrate the approach and evaluate its performance in specifying the correct number of knots under various conditions with an example using body mass index (BMI; kg/m2 and the complex multi-stage sampling design from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to simulate binary mortality outcomes data having realistic nonlinear sample-weighted risk associations with BMI. BMI and mortality data provide a particularly apt example and area of application since BMI is commonly recorded in large health surveys with complex designs, often categorized for modeling, and nonlinearly related to mortality. When complex sample design considerations were ignored, our method was generally similar to or more accurate than two common model selection procedures, Schwarz’s Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC, in terms of correctly selecting the correct number of knots. Our approach provided accurate knot selections when complex sampling weights were incorporated, while AIC and BIC were not effective under these conditions.

An IPSO-SVM algorithm for security state prediction of mine production logistics system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yanliang; Lei, Junhui; Ma, Qiuli; Chen, Xin; Bi, Runfang

2017-06-01

A theoretical basis for the regulation of corporate security warning and resources was provided in order to reveal the laws behind the security state in mine production logistics. Considering complex mine production logistics system and the variable is difficult to acquire, a superior security status predicting model of mine production logistics system based on the improved particle swarm optimization and support vector machine (IPSO-SVM) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, through the linear adjustments of inertia weight and learning weights, the convergence speed and search accuracy are enhanced with the aim to deal with situations associated with the changeable complexity and the data acquisition difficulty. The improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is then introduced to resolve the problem of parameter settings in traditional support vector machines (SVM). At the same time, security status index system is built to determine the classification standards of safety status. The feasibility and effectiveness of this method is finally verified using the experimental results.

The application of outsourcing decision-making methods in a logistics context in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naomi Bloem

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Companies have often relinquished the control of important business functions to outside suppliers for the sake of short-term savings and because of the lack of use of proper decision-making methods within the business. Objectives: This article identified three methods of decision-making and applied it to a logistics outsourcing problem. The logistics outsourcing problem consisted of a make-or-buy decision as well as a supplier selection process. The purpose of the study was to determine the most suitable method in the case of logistics outsourcing. Method: The decision-making methods were applied to a South African case study within the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG industry. The logistics functions considered in the case study included secondary distribution and warehousing of finished goods. Each method considered the same evaluation criteria and the results were analysed and compared. Results: Each method produced different results to the logistics outsourcing problem. The method developed by Platts, Probert and Canez (2000 suggested that the logistics functions be insourced. The decision tree method suggested outsourcing both functions, with a unit rate cost model. The results from the linear programming (LP method indicated that the secondary distribution function should be insourced and the warehousing function outsourced, with a fixed and variable cost model pending further analysis of the demand trends. Conclusion: The study provides empirical evidence that proven outsourcing decision-making methods, such as the method developed by Platts et al. (2000, the LP method and the decision tree method traditionally applied to a manufacturing outsourcing decision problem, can be adapted and applied to a logistics outsourcing decision problem of a South African FMCG company.

Competition with Online and Offline Demands considering Logistics Costs Based on the Hotelling Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhi-Hua Hu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Through popular information technologies (e.g., call centers, web portal, ecommerce and social media, etc., traditional shops change their functions for servicing online demands while still providing offline sales and services, which expand the market and the service capacity. In the Hotelling model that formulates the demand effect by considering just offline demand, the shops in a line city will locate at the center as a the result of competition by games. The online demands are met by the delivery logistics services provided by the shops with additional cost; the consumers’ waiting time after their orders also affects their choices for shops. The main purpose is to study the effects of the following aspects on the shops’ location competition: two logistics costs (consumers’ travelling cost for offline demands and the shops’ delivery logistics cost for online demands, the consumers’ waiting cost for online orders, and the ratios of online demands to the whole demands. Therefore, this study primarily contributes to the literature on the formulation of these aspects by extending the Hotelling model. These features and effects are demonstrated by experiments using the extended Hotelling models.

Optimal Control of Production and Remanufacturing in a Reverse Logistics Model with Backlogging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Konstantaras

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Reverse logistics activities have received increasing attention within logistics and operations management during the last years, both from a theoretical and a practical point of view. The field of reverse logistics includes all logistics processes starting with the take-back of used products from customers up to the stage of making them reusable products or disposing them. In this paper, a single-product recovery system is studied. In such system, used products are collected from customers and are kept at the recoverable inventory warehouse in view to be recovered. The constant demand rate can be satisfied either by newly produced products or by recovered ones (serviceable inventory, which are regarded as perfectly as the new ones. Excess demand is completely backlogged. Following an exact analytical approach, the optimal set-up numbers and the optimal lot sizes for the production of new products and for the recovery of returned products are obtained. A numerical cost comparison of this model with the corresponding one without backordering is also performed.

Linear factor copula models and their properties

KAUST Repository

Krupskii, Pavel; Genton, Marc G.

2018-01-01

We consider a special case of factor copula models with additive common factors and independent components. These models are flexible and parsimonious with O(d) parameters where d is the dimension. The linear structure allows one to obtain closed form expressions for some copulas and their extreme‐value limits. These copulas can be used to model data with strong tail dependencies, such as extreme data. We study the dependence properties of these linear factor copula models and derive the corresponding limiting extreme‐value copulas with a factor structure. We show how parameter estimates can be obtained for these copulas and apply one of these copulas to analyse a financial data set.

Linear factor copula models and their properties

KAUST Repository

Krupskii, Pavel

2018-04-25

We consider a special case of factor copula models with additive common factors and independent components. These models are flexible and parsimonious with O(d) parameters where d is the dimension. The linear structure allows one to obtain closed form expressions for some copulas and their extreme‐value limits. These copulas can be used to model data with strong tail dependencies, such as extreme data. We study the dependence properties of these linear factor copula models and derive the corresponding limiting extreme‐value copulas with a factor structure. We show how parameter estimates can be obtained for these copulas and apply one of these copulas to analyse a financial data set.

Calibration and LOD/LOQ estimation of a chemiluminescent hybridization assay for residual DNA in recombinant protein drugs expressed in E. coli using a four-parameter logistic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, K R; Dipaolo, B; Ji, X

2000-06-01

Calibration is the process of fitting a model based on reference data points (x, y), then using the model to estimate an unknown x based on a new measured response, y. In DNA assay, x is the concentration, and y is the measured signal volume. A four-parameter logistic model was used frequently for calibration of immunoassay when the response is optical density for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) or adjusted radioactivity count for radioimmunoassay (RIA). Here, it is shown that the same model or a linearized version of the curve are equally useful for the calibration of a chemiluminescent hybridization assay for residual DNA in recombinant protein drugs and calculation of performance measures of the assay.

Seasonality and the logistic map

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Emily; Peacock-Lopez, Enrique

2017-01-01

Nonlinear difference equations, such as the logistic map, have been used to study chaos and also to model population dynamics. Here we propose a model that extends the “lose + lose = win” behavior found in Parrondo’s Paradox, where switching between chaotic parameters in the logistic map yields periodic behavior (“chaos + chaos = order”). The model uses twelve parameters each reflecting the conditions of one of the twelve months. In this paper we study the effects of smooth-transitioning parameters and the robust system that emerges.

Managing logistical processes in franchise retail trade networks

OpenAIRE

Grigorenko Tatyana N.; Kochubey Dmitriy V.

2013-01-01

The article analyses approaches to organisation of internal logistics of franchise trade networks and methodical provision of assessment of results of logistical activity at companies of franchise networks. The article justifies urgency of application of referent models of management of supply chains in construction of a system of management of logistical activity of franchise networks. It offers classification of models of management of internal logistics of franchise retail trade networks. ...

Innovative Business Model for Realization of Sustainable Supply Chain at the Outsourcing Examination of Logistics Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Péter Tamás

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The issue of sustainability is becoming more and more important because of the increase in the human population and the extraction of non-renewable natural resources. We can make decisive steps towards sustainability in the fields of logistics services by improvement of logistics processes and/or application of new environment-friendly technologies. These steps are very important for companies because they have a significant effect on competitiveness. Nowadays significant changes are taking place in applied methods and technologies in the fields of logistics services as part of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Most companies are not able to keep pace with these changes in addition to carrying out their main activities by using own resources; consequently, in many cases logistics services are outsourced in the interest of maintaining or increasing competitiveness. The currently applied outsourcing examination process contains numerous shortcomings. We have elaborated a new business model to eliminate these shortcomings, namely the basic concept for an outsourcing investigation system integrated in the electronic marketplace. The paper introduces the current process of logistics service outsourcing examination and the elaborated business model concept.

Modelling Loudspeaker Non-Linearities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agerkvist, Finn T.

2007-01-01

This paper investigates different techniques for modelling the non-linear parameters of the electrodynamic loudspeaker. The methods are tested not only for their accuracy within the range of original data, but also for the ability to work reasonable outside that range, and it is demonstrated...... that polynomial expansions are rather poor at this, whereas an inverse polynomial expansion or localized fitting functions such as the gaussian are better suited for modelling the Bl-factor and compliance. For the inductance the sigmoid function is shown to give very good results. Finally the time varying...

Managing Reverse Logistics or Reversing Logistics Management?

OpenAIRE

Brito, Marisa

2004-01-01

textabstractIn the past, supply chains were busy fine-tuning the logistics from raw material to the end customer. Today an increasing flow of products is going back in the chain. Thus, companies have to manage reverse logistics as well.This thesis contributes to a better understanding of reverse logistics. The thesis brings insights on reverse logistics decision-making and it lays down theoretical principles for reverse logistics as a research field.In particular it puts together a framework ...

A Comparison of the One-and Three-Parameter Logistic Models on Measures of Test Efficiency.

Science.gov (United States)

Benson, Jeri

Two methods of item selection were used to select sets of 40 items from a 50-item verbal analogies test, and the resulting item sets were compared for relative efficiency. The BICAL program was used to select the 40 items having the best mean square fit to the one parameter logistic (Rasch) model. The LOGIST program was used to select the 40 items…

APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE LOGISTIC REGRESSION, BAYESIAN LOGISTIC AND CLASSIFICATION TREE TO IDENTIFY THE SIGNIFICANT FACTORS INFLUENCING CRASH SEVERITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MILAD TAZIK

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Identifying cases in which road crashes result in fatality or injury of drivers may help improve their safety. In this study, datasets of crashes happened in TehranQom freeway, Iran, were examined by three models (multiple logistic regression, Bayesian logistic and classification tree to analyse the contribution of several variables to fatal accidents. For multiple logistic regression and Bayesian logistic models, the odds ratio was calculated for each variable. The model which best suited the identification of accident severity was determined based on AIC and DIC criteria. Based on the results of these two models, rollover crashes (OR = 14.58, %95 CI: 6.8-28.6, not using of seat belt (OR = 5.79, %95 CI: 3.1-9.9, exceeding speed limits (OR = 4.02, %95 CI: 1.8-7.9 and being female (OR = 2.91, %95 CI: 1.1-6.1 were the most important factors in fatalities of drivers. In addition, the results of the classification tree model have verified the findings of the other models.

Redesigning fruit and vegetable distribution network in Tehran using a city logistics model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshad Saeedi

2019-01-01

Full Text Available Tehran, as one of the most populated capital cities worldwide, is categorized in the group of highly polluted cities in terms of the geographical location as well as increased number of industries, vehicles, domestic fuel consumption, intra-city trips, increased manufacturing units, and in general excessive increase in the consumption of fossil energies. City logistics models can be effectively helpful for solving the complicated problems of this city. In the present study, a queuing theory-based bi-objective mathematical model is presented, which aims to optimize the environmental and economic costs in city logistics operations. It also tries to reduce the response time in the network. The first objective is associated with all beneficiaries and the second one is applicable for perishable and necessary goods. The proposed model makes decisions on urban distribution centers location problem. Subsequently, as a case study, the fruit and vegetable distribution network of Tehran city is investigated and redesigned via the proposed modelling. The results of the implementation of the model through traditional and augmented ε-constraint methods indicate the efficiency of the proposed model in redesigning the given network.

The Use of Logistic Model in RUL Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Gumiński, R.; Radkowski, S.

2017-12-01

The paper takes on the issue of assessment of remaining useful life (RUL). The goal of the paper was to develop a method, which would enable use of diagnostic information in the task of reducing the uncertainty related to technical risk. Prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the system is a very important task for maintenance strategy. In the literature RUL of an engineering system is defined as the first future time instant in which thresholds of conditions (safety, operational quality, maintenance cost, etc) are violated. Knowledge of RUL offers the possibility of planning the testing and repair activities. Building models of damage development is important in this task. In the presented work, logistic function will be used to model fatigue crack development. It should be remembered that modeling of every phase of damage development is very difficult, yet modeling of every phase of damage separately, especially including on-line diagnostic information is more effective. Particular attention was paid to the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of damage due to fatigue while relying on the analysis of the structure of a vibroacoustic signal.

A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

Science.gov (United States)

Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

2012-01-01

Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

A model for logistics systems engineering management education in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Naim, M.; Lalwani, C.; Fortuin, L.; Schmidt, T.; Taylor, J.; Aronsson, H.

2000-01-01

This paper presents the need for a systems and process perspective of logistics. By defining logistics in this way a template for a logistics education course is developed. The template addresses functional, process and supply chain needs and has been developed by a number of university partners

Assessment of RFID Investment in the Military Logistics Systems Through The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Model

OpenAIRE

Ozdemir, Ahmet; Bayrak, Mustafa

2015-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is an emerging technology that has been recently used in numerous business and public fields. Most military applications of RFID have focused on logistics systems. Since RFID investment requires high initial cost and its benefits are hard to see in the short term, it needs an appropriate investment decision model. The purpose of this research is to propose a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) model for RFID integration into the Military Logistics System (MLS). The stu...

Log-normal frailty models fitted as Poisson generalized linear mixed models.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Katharina; Wienke, Andreas; Kuss, Oliver

2016-12-01

The equivalence of a survival model with a piecewise constant baseline hazard function and a Poisson regression model has been known since decades. As shown in recent studies, this equivalence carries over to clustered survival data: A frailty model with a log-normal frailty term can be interpreted and estimated as a generalized linear mixed model with a binary response, a Poisson likelihood, and a specific offset. Proceeding this way, statistical theory and software for generalized linear mixed models are readily available for fitting frailty models. This gain in flexibility comes at the small price of (1) having to fix the number of pieces for the baseline hazard in advance and (2) having to "explode" the data set by the number of pieces. In this paper we extend the simulations of former studies by using a more realistic baseline hazard (Gompertz) and by comparing the model under consideration with competing models. Furthermore, the SAS macro %PCFrailty is introduced to apply the Poisson generalized linear mixed approach to frailty models. The simulations show good results for the shared frailty model. Our new %PCFrailty macro provides proper estimates, especially in case of 4 events per piece. The suggested Poisson generalized linear mixed approach for log-normal frailty models based on the %PCFrailty macro provides several advantages in the analysis of clustered survival data with respect to more flexible modelling of fixed and random effects, exact (in the sense of non-approximate) maximum likelihood estimation, and standard errors and different types of confidence intervals for all variance parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linearized models for a new magnetic control in MAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Artaserse, G.; Maviglia, F.; Albanese, R.; McArdle, G.J.; Pangione, L.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We applied linearized models for a new magnetic control on MAST tokamak. ► A suite of procedures, conceived to be machine independent, have been used. ► We carried out model-based simulations, taking into account eddy currents effects. ► Comparison with the EFIT flux maps and the experimental magnetic signals are shown. ► A current driven model for the dynamic simulations of the experimental data have been performed. -- Abstract: The aim of this work is to provide reliable linearized models for the design and assessment of a new magnetic control system for MAST (Mega Ampère Spherical Tokamak) using rtEFIT, which can easily be exported to MAST Upgrade. Linearized models for magnetic control have been obtained using the 2D axisymmetric finite element code CREATE L. MAST linearized models include equivalent 2D axisymmetric schematization of poloidal field (PF) coils, vacuum vessel, and other conducting structures. A plasmaless and a double null configuration have been chosen as benchmark cases for the comparison with experimental data and EFIT reconstructions. Good agreement has been found with the EFIT flux map and the experimental signals coming from magnetic probes with only few mismatches probably due to broken sensors. A suite of procedures (equipped with a user friendly interface to be run even remotely) to provide linearized models for magnetic control is now available on the MAST linux machines. A new current driven model has been used to obtain a state space model having the PF coil currents as inputs. Dynamic simulations of experimental data have been carried out using linearized models, including modelling of the effects of the passive structures, showing a fair agreement. The modelling activity has been useful also to reproduce accurately the interaction between plasma current and radial position control loops

Linearized models for a new magnetic control in MAST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Artaserse, G., E-mail: giovanni.artaserse@enea.it [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, Via Enrico Fermi 45, I-00044 Frascati (RM) (Italy); Maviglia, F.; Albanese, R. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA-CREATE sulla Fusione, Via Claudio 21, I-80125 Napoli (Italy); McArdle, G.J.; Pangione, L. [EURATOM/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

2013-10-15

Highlights: ► We applied linearized models for a new magnetic control on MAST tokamak. ► A suite of procedures, conceived to be machine independent, have been used. ► We carried out model-based simulations, taking into account eddy currents effects. ► Comparison with the EFIT flux maps and the experimental magnetic signals are shown. ► A current driven model for the dynamic simulations of the experimental data have been performed. -- Abstract: The aim of this work is to provide reliable linearized models for the design and assessment of a new magnetic control system for MAST (Mega Ampère Spherical Tokamak) using rtEFIT, which can easily be exported to MAST Upgrade. Linearized models for magnetic control have been obtained using the 2D axisymmetric finite element code CREATE L. MAST linearized models include equivalent 2D axisymmetric schematization of poloidal field (PF) coils, vacuum vessel, and other conducting structures. A plasmaless and a double null configuration have been chosen as benchmark cases for the comparison with experimental data and EFIT reconstructions. Good agreement has been found with the EFIT flux map and the experimental signals coming from magnetic probes with only few mismatches probably due to broken sensors. A suite of procedures (equipped with a user friendly interface to be run even remotely) to provide linearized models for magnetic control is now available on the MAST linux machines. A new current driven model has been used to obtain a state space model having the PF coil currents as inputs. Dynamic simulations of experimental data have been carried out using linearized models, including modelling of the effects of the passive structures, showing a fair agreement. The modelling activity has been useful also to reproduce accurately the interaction between plasma current and radial position control loops.

Design and Profit Allocation in Two-Echelon Heterogeneous Cooperative Logistics Network Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Wang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In modern supply chain, logistics companies usually operate individually and optimization researches often concentrate on solving problems related to separate networks. Consequences like the complexity of urban transportation networks and long distance deliveries or pickups and pollution are leading problems to more expenses and more complaints from environment protection organizations. A solution approach to these issues is proposed in this article and consists in the adoption of two-echelon heterogeneous cooperative logistics networks (THCLN. The optimization methodology includes the formation of cooperative coalitions, the reallocation of customers to appropriate logistics facilities, and the determination of the best profit allocation scheme. First, a mixed integer linear programing model is introduced to minimize the total operating cost of nonempty coalitions. Thus, the Genetic Algorithm (GA and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO algorithm are hybridized to propose GA-PSO heuristics. GA-PSO is employed to provide good solutions to customer clustering units’ reallocation problem. In addition, a negotiation process is established based on logistics centers as coordinators. The case study of Chongqing city is conducted to verify the feasibility of THCLN in practice. The grand coalition and two heterogeneous subcoalitions are designed, and the collective profit is distributed based on cooperative game theory. The Minimum Cost Remaining Savings (MCRS model is used to determine good allocation schemes and strictly monotonic path principles are considered to evaluate and decide the most appropriate coalition sequence. Comparisons proved the combination of GA-PSO and MCRS better as results are found closest to the core center. Therefore, the proposed approach can be implemented in real world environment, increase the reliability of urban logistics network, and allow decision makers to improve service efficiency.

Simulation Integrated Design for Logistics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veeke, H.P.M.

2003-01-01

The design of an innovative logistic system is a complex problem in the solution of which many disciplines are involved. Each discipline developed its own way of conceptual modeling for a logistic system based on a mono disciplinary perception. In essence this leads to a communication problem

Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2012-07-01

This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2012-07-01

This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

Review on Doctoral Dissertation: Drago Pupavac: Logistics operator – the factor of dynamic optimization of global logistics chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ratko Zelenika

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The main objective of the scientific research of this doctoral thesis is the effect of the logistics operator in the function of cutting total costs of the global logistics chain. In order to achieve the objective of the research, a number of scientific methods have been applied such as survey methods, methods of dynamic programming and mixed convex programming. Owing to the applied scientific methodology,Drago Pupovac, M.Sc. has successfully interpreted the obtained results by proving that the selective model approach to active participants of the logistics chain gives the logistics operator the insight into potential logistics network, depicts skills of individual operators in the logistics network, specifies logistics activitiesof each logistics venture, provides information on costs of specific logistics activities and in that way proves that it enables logistics operator to optimize logistics chains by protecting them from the demand instability and changes.

A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

Evaluating penalized logistic regression models to predict Heat-Related Electric grid stress days

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bramer, L. M.; Rounds, J.; Burleyson, C. D.; Fortin, D.; Hathaway, J.; Rice, J.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-11-01

Understanding the conditions associated with stress on the electricity grid is important in the development of contingency plans for maintaining reliability during periods when the grid is stressed. In this paper, heat-related grid stress and the relationship with weather conditions is examined using data from the eastern United States. Penalized logistic regression models were developed and applied to predict stress on the electric grid using weather data. The inclusion of other weather variables, such as precipitation, in addition to temperature improved model performance. Several candidate models and datasets were examined. A penalized logistic regression model fit at the operation-zone level was found to provide predictive value and interpretability. Additionally, the importance of different weather variables observed at different time scales were examined. Maximum temperature and precipitation were identified as important across all zones while the importance of other weather variables was zone specific. The methods presented in this work are extensible to other regions and can be used to aid in planning and development of the electrical grid.

Modeling Non-Linear Material Properties in Composite Materials

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-28

Technical Report ARWSB-TR-16013 MODELING NON-LINEAR MATERIAL PROPERTIES IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS Michael F. Macri Andrew G...REPORT TYPE Technical 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE MODELING NON-LINEAR MATERIAL PROPERTIES IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS ...systems are increasingly incorporating composite materials into their design. Many of these systems subject the composites to environmental conditions

Comprehensive Logistics

CERN Document Server

Gudehus, Timm

2012-01-01

Modern logistics comprises operative logistics, analytical logistics and management of logistic networks. Central task of operative logistics is the efficient supply of required goods at the right place within the right time. Tasks of analytical logistics are designing optimal networks and systems, developing strategies for planning, scheduling and operation, and organizing efficient order and performance processes. Logistic management plans, implements and operates logistic networks and schedules orders, stocks and resources. This reference-book offers a unique survey of modern logistics. It contains proven strategies, rules and tools for the solution of a multitude of logistic problems. The analytically derived algorithms and formulas can be used for the computer-based planning of logistic systems and for the dynamic scheduling of orders and resources in supply networks. They enable significant improvements of performance, quality and costs. Their application is demonstrated by several examples from industr...

Persistence and extinction for stochastic logistic model with Levy noise and impulsive perturbation

OpenAIRE

Chun Lu; Qiang Ma; Xiaohua Ding

2015-01-01

This article investigates a stochastic logistic model with Levy noise and impulsive perturbation. In the model, the impulsive perturbation and Levy noise are taken into account simultaneously. This model is new and more feasible and more accordance with the actual. The definition of solution to a stochastic differential equation with Levy noise and impulsive perturbation is established. Based on this definition, we show that our model has a unique global positive solut...

Cooperation between partners in logistics outsourcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreja KRIŽMAN

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to present the research results from a study of impact of cooperation between logistics service providers (LSP and their customers on logistics outsourcing performance conducted in the Slovenian market. On the basis of the existing literature and some new argumentations, derived from in-depth interviews with logistics experts of providers and customers, the measurement and structural models were empirically analyzed. Existing measurement scales for the constructs of cooperation, and outsourcing performance were slightly modified for this analysis. Their purification and measurement for validity and reliability were performed. Multivariate statistical methods (EFA, CFA and SEM - Partial Least Squares were utilized and hypotheses were tested. Cooperation between partners has a significant impact on the relationship and reduces problems in logistics performance. Cooperation in the model explain 58.5% of the variance of goal achievement and 36.6% of the variance of goal exceedance logistics of outsourcing performance.

Persistence and extinction for a stochastic logistic model with infinite delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun Lu

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This article, studies a stochastic logistic model with infinite delay. Using a phase space, we establish sufficient conditions for the extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, and stochastic permanence. A threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Our results state that different types of environmental noises have different effects on the persistence and extinction, and that the delay has no impact on the persistence and extinction for the stochastic model in the autonomous case. Numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical results.

Framework for Modelling Multi-stakeholder City Logistics Domain Using the Agent based Modelling Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anand, Nilesh; van Duin, Ron; Tavasszy, L.A.

2016-01-01

Efficiency of city logistics activities suffers due to conflicting personal preferences and distributed decision making by multiple city logistics stakeholders. This is exacerbated by interdependency of city logistics activities, decision making with limited information and stakeholders’ preference

Identification of reverse logistics decision types from mathematical models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pascual Cortés Pellicer

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The increase in social awareness, politics and environmental regulation, the scarcity of raw materials and the desired “green” image, are some of the reasons that lead companies to decide for implement processes of Reverse Logistics (RL. At the time when incorporate new RL processes as key business processes, new and important decisions need to be made. Identification and knowledge of these decisions, including the information available and the implications for the company or supply chain, will be fundamental for decision-makers to achieve the best results. In the present work, the main types of RL decisions are identified. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on the analysis of mathematical models designed as tools to aid decision making in the field of RL. Once the types of interest work to be analyzed are defined, those studies that really deal about the object of study are searched and analyzed. The decision variables that are taken at work are identified and grouped according to the type of decision and, finally, are showed the main types of decisions used in mathematical models developed in the field of RL.     Findings: The principal conclusion of the research is that the most commonly addressed decisions with mathematical models in the field of RL are those related to the network’s configuration, followed by tactical/operative decisions such as the selections of product’s treatments to realize and the policy of returns or prices, among other decisions. Originality/value: The identification of the main decisions types of the reverse logistics will allow the managers of these processes to know and understand them better, while offer an integrated vision of them, favoring the achievement of better results.

Assessing the performance of variational methods for mixed logistic regression models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Rijmen, F.; Vomlel, Jiří

2008-01-01

Roč. 78, č. 8 (2008), s. 765-779 ISSN 0094-9655 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Mixed models * Logistic regression * Variational methods * Lower bound approximation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.353, year: 2008

LOGISTIC FUNCTION PROFILE FIT: A least-squares program for fitting interface profiles to an extended logistic function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchhoff, William H.

2012-01-01

The extended logistic function provides a physically reasonable description of interfaces such as depth profiles or line scans of surface topological or compositional features. It describes these interfaces with the minimum number of parameters, namely, position, width, and asymmetry. Logistic Function Profile Fit (LFPF) is a robust, least-squares fitting program in which the nonlinear extended logistic function is linearized by a Taylor series expansion (equivalent to a Newton–Raphson approach) with no apparent introduction of bias in the analysis. The program provides reliable confidence limits for the parameters when systematic errors are minimal and provides a display of the residuals from the fit for the detection of systematic errors. The program will aid researchers in applying ASTM E1636-10, “Standard practice for analytically describing sputter-depth-profile and linescan-profile data by an extended logistic function,” and may also prove useful in applying ISO 18516: 2006, “Surface chemical analysis—Auger electron spectroscopy and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy—determination of lateral resolution.” Examples are given of LFPF fits to a secondary ion mass spectrometry depth profile, an Auger surface line scan, and synthetic data generated to exhibit known systematic errors for examining the significance of such errors to the extrapolation of partial profiles.

Non-linear Loudspeaker Unit Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Bo Rohde; Agerkvist, Finn T.

2008-01-01

Simulations of a 6½-inch loudspeaker unit are performed and compared with a displacement measurement. The non-linear loudspeaker model is based on the major nonlinear functions and expanded with time-varying suspension behaviour and flux modulation. The results are presented with FFT plots of thr...... frequencies and different displacement levels. The model errors are discussed and analysed including a test with loudspeaker unit where the diaphragm is removed....

The Limit Behavior of a Stochastic Logistic Model with Individual Time-Dependent Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yilun Shang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate a variant of the stochastic logistic model that allows individual variation and time-dependent infection and recovery rates. The model is described as a heterogeneous density dependent Markov chain. We show that the process can be approximated by a deterministic process defined by an integral equation as the population size grows.

3PL, 4PL and insourcing logistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauro Vivaldini

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Logistics services have evolved and changed over time, especially in the hiring of them according to the concepts of 3PL (third party logistics, 4PL (fourth party logistics or insourcing logistics. 3PL service is a consolidated business, 4PL is an option for outsourcing logistics and has already been adopted by some organizations, and insourcing logistics suggests the return of these activities being internalized by companies, which is still a relatively unexplored subject in logistics literature. Analyzing these themes in the literature, this study updates the view on them and proposes a conceptual framework that classifies the different models of logistics services, showing the different options that can be adopted to help the company decide how to run their logistics services.

LOGISTICS - EVOLUTION THROUGH INNOVATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petrache Alexandru Constantin

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The current economic conditions, the rapidity with which the exchange of information, resources and products in the market takes place makes the logistics seem appreciably less significant. However, the importance of logistics has been presented in the military field, through strategies that have led to wining of the great wars that mankind has seen, through the supply of troops with food or moving military equipment. The literature in the field of logistics has numerous works on this topic. But while most focuses on efficient ways of carrying out the component activities of logistics or the strategies of organizations with regard to logistics or its functions, research on dynamics of logistics is underdeveloped. To be able to propose new methods or strategies of logistic activities is necessary to understand the development of this concept, determinant factors and economic and social conditions that gave rise to such developments. Thus, after a presentation of the main landmarks of the historical development of logistics we highlight the importance of the innovation within an organization's value chain innovation, in particular, and how to conduct the business in general. Using generations of innovation identified in the literature, we determine the generation of logistics development, taking into account innovation and how to conduct business. In addition for a better highlight of the own vision over the logistics generations identified, we will present the graphical concept for each generation in part. Last but not least, for each generation identified we try to allocate the chronological landmarks featured in order to reinforce the importance played by innovation in the development of the logistics industry and to give future directions of research within this topic. The study took into account the information presented in articles, books and websites of the relevant specialty in logistics and innovation to be able to build and expose a

Multicriteria Optimisation in Logistics Forwarder Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja Poletan Jugović

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Logistics forwarder, as organizer and planner of coordinationand integration of all the transport and logistics chains elements,uses adequate ways and methods in the process of planningand decision-making. One of these methods, analysed inthis paper, which could be used in optimisation of transportand logistics processes and activities of logistics forwarder, isthe multicriteria optimisation method. Using that method, inthis paper is suggested model of multicriteria optimisation of logisticsforwarder activities. The suggested model of optimisationis justified in keeping with method principles of multicriteriaoptimization, which is included in operation researchmethods and it represents the process of multicriteria optimizationof variants. Among many different processes of multicriteriaoptimization, PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking OrganizationMethod for Enrichment Evaluations and Promcalc& Gaia V. 3.2., computer program of multicriteria programming,which is based on the mentioned process, were used.

An Application of a Multidimensional Extension of the Two-Parameter Logistic Latent Trait Model.

Science.gov (United States)

McKinley, Robert L.; Reckase, Mark D.

A latent trait model is described that is appropriate for use with tests that measure more than one dimension, and its application to both real and simulated test data is demonstrated. Procedures for estimating the parameters of the model are presented. The research objectives are to determine whether the two-parameter logistic model more…

A novel robust chance constrained possibilistic programming model for disaster relief logistics under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryam Rahafrooz

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a novel multi-objective robust possibilistic programming model is proposed, which simultaneously considers maximizing the distributive justice in relief distribution, minimizing the risk of relief distribution, and minimizing the total logistics costs. To effectively cope with the uncertainties of the after-disaster environment, the uncertain parameters of the proposed model are considered in the form of fuzzy trapezoidal numbers. The proposed model not only considers relief commodities priority and demand points priority in relief distribution, but also considers the difference between the pre-disaster and post-disaster supply abilities of the suppliers. In order to solve the proposed model, the LP-metric and the improved augmented ε-constraint methods are used. Second, a set of test problems are designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed robust model against its equivalent deterministic form, which reveales the capabilities of the robust model. Finally, to illustrate the performance of the proposed robust model, a seismic region of northwestern Iran (East Azerbaijan is selected as a case study to model its relief logistics in the face of future earthquakes. This investigation indicates the usefulness of the proposed model in the field of crisis.

Comparison between linear quadratic and early time dose models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chougule, A.A.; Supe, S.J.

1993-01-01

During the 70s, much interest was focused on fractionation in radiotherapy with the aim of improving tumor control rate without producing unacceptable normal tissue damage. To compare the radiobiological effectiveness of various fractionation schedules, empirical formulae such as Nominal Standard Dose, Time Dose Factor, Cumulative Radiation Effect and Tumour Significant Dose, were introduced and were used despite many shortcomings. It has been claimed that a recent linear quadratic model is able to predict the radiobiological responses of tumours as well as normal tissues more accurately. We compared Time Dose Factor and Tumour Significant Dose models with the linear quadratic model for tumour regression in patients with carcinomas of the cervix. It was observed that the prediction of tumour regression estimated by the Tumour Significant Dose and Time Dose factor concepts varied by 1.6% from that of the linear quadratic model prediction. In view of the lack of knowledge of the precise values of the parameters of the linear quadratic model, it should be applied with caution. One can continue to use the Time Dose Factor concept which has been in use for more than a decade as its results are within ±2% as compared to that predicted by the linear quadratic model. (author). 11 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs

A Note on the Identifiability of Generalized Linear Mixed Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Labouriau, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

I present here a simple proof that, under general regularity conditions, the standard parametrization of generalized linear mixed model is identifiable. The proof is based on the assumptions of generalized linear mixed models on the first and second order moments and some general mild regularity...... conditions, and, therefore, is extensible to quasi-likelihood based generalized linear models. In particular, binomial and Poisson mixed models with dispersion parameter are identifiable when equipped with the standard parametrization...

Education in logistics and training of non-logistic personnel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko D. Andrejić

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The significance of education in logistics and education and training of cadets who belong to non-logistic services (non-logistic personnel will be presented. The logistical aspects of education of non-logistic personnel are elaborated as well as the knowledge in the area of logistics which is necessary to be transferred through the educational process to non-logistic personnel for the successful accomplishment of their functional duties. A general approach and the methods of logistics education and improvement of non-logistic personnel are presented as well as the institutional prerequisites necessary for improving the quality of logistics education and training. The quality of the knowledge in this area and its implementation into the methods of thinking and decision making of non-logistic personnel affect the cooperation between the non-logistic and the logistic personnel, directly contributing to the quality of life and working conditions of units and institutions as well as to the quality and synergy in task accomplishments in the framework defined by the missions of the Army of Serbia. The necessary content and means of its transfer to cadets are discussed since they are supposed to be available at all levels and forms of education, depending on the previous cadet education levels. The theoretical bases and experiences shown are of general character and they have a universal application in the process of education. Introduction In our recent defense theory and operational practice, logistics education of non-logistic personnel is not sufficiently analyzed either in organizational or technological aspects, considering the concept and the logic of a systematic and a situational approach. The analysis of the experiences gained from operational practice shows a slight decrease in the quality of task accomplishment due to the lack of necessary logistic knowledge and habits as well as an increased communication gap between logistic and non-logistic

Collaborative autonomous systems in models of urban logistics

OpenAIRE

Arango Serna, Martín Darío; Serna Uran, Conrado Augusto; Alvarez Uribe, Karla Cristina; Arango Serna, Martín Darío

2012-01-01

Cities growth and along with them the exchange and distribution of goods and services has led in recent years to a greater increasing interest for the optimization of logistic processes carried out in urban areas. In this article, the main approaches and solutions which have been proposed from academic research will be described, focusing mainly on collaborative autonomic logistics, which is offered as an attractive solution to the urban goods distribution problems in complex cities.

A non-linear state space approach to model groundwater fluctuations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berendrecht, W.L.; Heemink, A.W.; Geer, F.C. van; Gehrels, J.C.

2006-01-01

A non-linear state space model is developed for describing groundwater fluctuations. Non-linearity is introduced by modeling the (unobserved) degree of water saturation of the root zone. The non-linear relations are based on physical concepts describing the dependence of both the actual

Effective connectivity between superior temporal gyrus and Heschl's gyrus during white noise listening: linear versus non-linear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, Ka; Yusoff, An; Rahman, Mza; Mohamad, M; Hamid, Aia

2012-04-01

This fMRI study is about modelling the effective connectivity between Heschl's gyrus (HG) and the superior temporal gyrus (STG) in human primary auditory cortices. MATERIALS #ENTITYSTARTX00026; Ten healthy male participants were required to listen to white noise stimuli during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to generate individual and group brain activation maps. For input region determination, two intrinsic connectivity models comprising bilateral HG and STG were constructed using dynamic causal modelling (DCM). The models were estimated and inferred using DCM while Bayesian Model Selection (BMS) for group studies was used for model comparison and selection. Based on the winning model, six linear and six non-linear causal models were derived and were again estimated, inferred, and compared to obtain a model that best represents the effective connectivity between HG and the STG, balancing accuracy and complexity. Group results indicated significant asymmetrical activation (p(uncorr) Model comparison results showed strong evidence of STG as the input centre. The winning model is preferred by 6 out of 10 participants. The results were supported by BMS results for group studies with the expected posterior probability, r = 0.7830 and exceedance probability, ϕ = 0.9823. One-sample t-tests performed on connection values obtained from the winning model indicated that the valid connections for the winning model are the unidirectional parallel connections from STG to bilateral HG (p model comparison between linear and non-linear models using BMS prefers non-linear connection (r = 0.9160, ϕ = 1.000) from which the connectivity between STG and the ipsi- and contralateral HG is gated by the activity in STG itself. We are able to demonstrate that the effective connectivity between HG and STG while listening to white noise for the respective participants can be explained by a non-linear dynamic causal model with

Linear Equating for the NEAT Design: Parameter Substitution Models and Chained Linear Relationship Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, Michael T.; Mroch, Andrew A.; Suh, Youngsuk; Ripkey, Douglas R.

2009-01-01

This paper analyzes five linear equating models for the "nonequivalent groups with anchor test" (NEAT) design with internal anchors (i.e., the anchor test is part of the full test). The analysis employs a two-dimensional framework. The first dimension contrasts two general approaches to developing the equating relationship. Under a "parameter…

Recent Updates to the GEOS-5 Linear Model

Science.gov (United States)

Holdaway, Dan; Kim, Jong G.; Errico, Ron; Gelaro, Ronald; Mahajan, Rahul

2014-01-01

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is close to having a working 4DVAR system and has developed a linearized version of GEOS-5.This talk outlines a series of improvements made to the linearized dynamics, physics and trajectory.Of particular interest is the development of linearized cloud microphysics, which provides the framework for 'all-sky' data assimilation.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR CALCULATION OF INFORMATION RISKS FOR INFORMATION AND LOGISTICS SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. G. Korobeynikov

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Subject of research. The paper deals with mathematical model for assessment calculation of information risks arising during transporting and distribution of material resources in the conditions of uncertainty. Meanwhile information risks imply the danger of origin of losses or damage as a result of application of information technologies by the company. Method. The solution is based on ideology of the transport task solution in stochastic statement with mobilization of mathematical modeling theory methods, the theory of graphs, probability theory, Markov chains. Creation of mathematical model is performed through the several stages. At the initial stage, capacity on different sites depending on time is calculated, on the basis of information received from information and logistic system, the weight matrix is formed and the digraph is under construction. Then there is a search of the minimum route which covers all specified vertexes by means of Dejkstra algorithm. At the second stage, systems of differential Kolmogorov equations are formed using information about the calculated route. The received decisions show probabilities of resources location in concrete vertex depending on time. At the third stage, general probability of the whole route passing depending on time is calculated on the basis of multiplication theorem of probabilities. Information risk, as time function, is defined by multiplication of the greatest possible damage by the general probability of the whole route passing. In this case information risk is measured in units of damage which corresponds to that monetary unit which the information and logistic system operates with. Main results. Operability of the presented mathematical model is shown on a concrete example of transportation of material resources where places of shipment and delivery, routes and their capacity, the greatest possible damage and admissible risk are specified. The calculations presented on a diagram showed

A Trivial Linear Discriminant Function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuichi Shinmura

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we focus on the new model selection procedure of the discriminant analysis. Combining re-sampling technique with k-fold cross validation, we develop a k-fold cross validation for small sample method. By this breakthrough, we obtain the mean error rate in the validation samples (M2 and the 95\\% confidence interval (CI of discriminant coefficient. Moreover, we propose the model  selection  procedure  in  which  the model having a minimum M2 was  chosen  to  the  best  model.  We  apply  this  new  method and procedure to the pass/ fail determination of  exam  scores.  In  this  case,  we  fix  the constant =1 for seven linear discriminant  functions  (LDFs  and  several  good  results  were obtained as follows: 1 M2 of Fisher's LDF are over 4.6\\% worse than Revised IP-OLDF. 2 A soft-margin  SVM  for  penalty c=1  (SVM1  is  worse  than  another  mathematical  programming (MP based LDFs and logistic regression . 3 The 95\\% CI of the best discriminant coefficients was obtained. Seven LDFs except for Fisher's LDF are almost the same as a trivial LDF for the linear separable model. Furthermore, if we choose the median of the coefficient of seven LDFs except for Fisher's LDF,  those are almost the same as the trivial LDF for the linear separable model.

Performance and strategy comparisons of human listeners and logistic regression in discriminating underwater targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Lixue; Chen, Kean

2015-11-01

To improve the design of underwater target recognition systems based on auditory perception, this study compared human listeners with automatic classifiers. Performances measures and strategies in three discrimination experiments, including discriminations between man-made and natural targets, between ships and submarines, and among three types of ships, were used. In the experiments, the subjects were asked to assign a score to each sound based on how confident they were about the category to which it belonged, and logistic regression, which represents linear discriminative models, also completed three similar tasks by utilizing many auditory features. The results indicated that the performances of logistic regression improved as the ratio between inter- and intra-class differences became larger, whereas the performances of the human subjects were limited by their unfamiliarity with the targets. Logistic regression performed better than the human subjects in all tasks but the discrimination between man-made and natural targets, and the strategies employed by excellent human subjects were similar to that of logistic regression. Logistic regression and several human subjects demonstrated similar performances when discriminating man-made and natural targets, but in this case, their strategies were not similar. An appropriate fusion of their strategies led to further improvement in recognition accuracy.

Regional Logistics Information Resources Integration Patterns and Countermeasures

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hui; Shangguan, Xu-ming

Effective integration of regional logistics information resources can provide collaborative services in information flow, business flow and logistics for regional logistics enterprises, which also can reduce operating costs and improve market responsiveness. First, this paper analyzes the realistic significance on the integration of regional logistics information. Second, this paper brings forward three feasible patterns on the integration of regional logistics information resources, These three models have their own strengths and the scope of application and implementation, which model is selected will depend on the specific business and the regional distribution of enterprises. Last, this paper discusses the related countermeasures on the integration of regional logistics information resources, because the integration of regional logistics information is a systems engineering, when the integration is advancing, the countermeasures should pay close attention to the current needs and long-term development of regional enterprises.

Production-logistic system in the aspect of strategies for production planning and control and for logistic customer service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Łukasz Hadaś

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Background: The authors made multi-dimensional review of production and logistic strategies in order to prove their coherence in shaping internal and external supply chain. The paper is concluded with definition of production-logistic system as an object of modeling in transformation of business systems of manufacturing companies. Material and methods: The paper is based on analysis of state of the art presented in the literature on the subject of production and logistics strategies. Publications of key importance were selected to identify genesis and basic assumptions of strategies and their functioning. Comparative synthesis of logistic and production strategies identified is developed with respect to authors' experience in application of predefined tools and methods characteristic for strategies identified. Results: The result of the work conducted is consolidation of production and logistic strategies according to multi-variant customer service and original definition of production and logistic system. Conclusions: Production system and logistic system can and should be treated as equal elements in context of material flows management in internal and external supply chains. Such approach enables modeling of both systems as coherent elements realizing selected strategy of customer service.     

Relationship Between Green Logistics Tendency and Logistics Performance: A Comparative Case Study on Logistics Service Providers

OpenAIRE

Ayşenur DOĞRU; Cemile SOLAK FIŞKIN

2016-01-01

Increasing concerns related to environmental side effects of the logistics services and competition between the logistics service providers are two pressuring factors on logistics service providers. This study seeks to explore the relation between green logistics tendency and logistic performance from the perspective of logistics service providers. In order to reach this aim, two logistics service providers are investigated by comparative case study method. Findings showed the effects of g...

Macro-institutional Complexity in Logistics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wessel, Frederic; Kinra, Aseem; Kotzab, Herbert

2016-01-01

structure and transactional costs, the concept of environmental complexity is applied to the logistics management perspective. Thereby, the impacts which a given framework on a macro-institutional level might have on the situation and leeway in decision-making at the firm (micro) or the supply chain (meso......In this paper, the interlink between the concept of macro-institutional complexity in logistics and the dynamics in the logistics practice of Eastern Europe will be examined. Referring to the importance of different authors having ascribed to the external environmental uncertainty on organizational......) levels will be analysed. Furthermore, a quantitative modelling approach will be presented and exemplified by using the case of logistics infrastructure in Eastern Europe....

Logistic regression model for diagnosis of transition zone prostate cancer on multi-parametric MRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Dikaios, Nikolaos; Alkalbani, Jokha; Sidhu, Harbir Singh; Fujiwara, Taiki; Abd-Alazeez, Mohamed; Kirkham, Alex; Allen, Clare; Ahmed, Hashim; Emberton, Mark; Freeman, Alex; Halligan, Steve; Taylor, Stuart; Atkinson, David; Punwani, Shonit

2015-02-01

We aimed to develop logistic regression (LR) models for classifying prostate cancer within the transition zone on multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI). One hundred and fifty-five patients (training cohort, 70 patients; temporal validation cohort, 85 patients) underwent mp-MRI and transperineal-template-prostate-mapping (TPM) biopsy. Positive cores were classified by cancer definitions: (1) any-cancer; (2) definition-1 [≥Gleason 4 + 3 or ≥ 6 mm cancer core length (CCL)] [high risk significant]; and (3) definition-2 (≥Gleason 3 + 4 or ≥ 4 mm CCL) cancer [intermediate-high risk significant]. For each, logistic-regression mp-MRI models were derived from the training cohort and validated internally and with the temporal cohort. Sensitivity/specificity and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC-AUC) curve were calculated. LR model performance was compared to radiologists' performance. Twenty-eight of 70 patients from the training cohort, and 25/85 patients from the temporal validation cohort had significant cancer on TPM. The ROC-AUC of the LR model for classification of cancer was 0.73/0.67 at internal/temporal validation. The radiologist A/B ROC-AUC was 0.65/0.74 (temporal cohort). For patients scored by radiologists as Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (Pi-RADS) score 3, sensitivity/specificity of radiologist A 'best guess' and LR model was 0.14/0.54 and 0.71/0.61, respectively; and radiologist B 'best guess' and LR model was 0.40/0.34 and 0.50/0.76, respectively. LR models can improve classification of Pi-RADS score 3 lesions similar to experienced radiologists. • MRI helps find prostate cancer in the anterior of the gland • Logistic regression models based on mp-MRI can classify prostate cancer • Computers can help confirm cancer in areas doctors are uncertain about.

Effective factors contraceptive use by logistic regression model in Tehran, 1996

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramezani F

1999-07-01

Full Text Available Despite unwillingness to fertility, about 30% of couples do not use any kind of contraception and this will lead to unwanted pregnancy. In this clinical trial study, 4177 subjects who had at least one alive child, and delivered in one of the 12 university hospitals in Tehran were recruited. This study was conducted in 1996. The questionnaire included some questions about contraceptive use, their attitudes about unwantedness or wantedness of their current pregnancies. Data were analysed using a Logistic Regrassion Model. Results showed that 20.3% of those who had no fertility intention, did not use any kind of contraception methods, 41.1% of the subjects who were using a contraception method before pregnancy, had got pregnant unwantedly. Based on Logistic Regression Model; age, education, previous familiarity of women with contraception methods and husband's education were the most significant factors in contraceptive use. Subjects who were 20 years old and less or 35 years old and more and illeterate subjects were at higher risk for unuse of contraception methods. This risk was not related to the gender of their children that suggests a positive change in their perspectives towards sex and the number of children. It is suggested that health politicians choose an appropriate model to enhance the literacy, education and counseling for the correct usage of contraceptives and prevention of unwanted pregnancy.

Humanitarian response: improving logistics to save lives.

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, Jessica

2008-01-01

Each year, millions of people worldwide are affected by disasters, underscoring the importance of effective relief efforts. Many highly visible disaster responses have been inefficient and ineffective. Humanitarian agencies typically play a key role in disaster response (eg, procuring and distributing relief items to an affected population, assisting with evacuation, providing healthcare, assisting in the development of long-term shelter), and thus their efficiency is critical for a successful disaster response. The field of disaster and emergency response modeling is well established, but the application of such techniques to humanitarian logistics is relatively recent. This article surveys models of humanitarian response logistics and identifies promising opportunities for future work. Existing models analyze a variety of preparation and response decisions (eg, warehouse location and the distribution of relief supplies), consider both natural and manmade disasters, and typically seek to minimize cost or unmet demand. Opportunities to enhance the logistics of humanitarian response include the adaptation of models developed for general disaster response; the use of existing models, techniques, and insights from the literature on commercial supply chain management; the development of working partnerships between humanitarian aid organizations and private companies with expertise in logistics; and the consideration of behavioral factors relevant to a response. Implementable, realistic models that support the logistics of humanitarian relief can improve the preparation for and the response to disasters, which in turn can save lives.

A New Availability-Payment Model for Pricing Performance-Based Logistics Contracts

Science.gov (United States)

2014-05-01

Grant number: N00244‐13‐1‐0009 A New “Availability‐ Payment ”  Model  for Pricing Performance‐ Based Logistics Contracts A. KashaniPour, X. Zhu, P...DATE MAY 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A New ’Availability‐ Payment ’ Model for...is how the  payment   model  in the contract  quantifies the contractor’s  performance for awarding incentives  or penalties Discrete‐Event Simulator ut

Non-linear calibration models for near infrared spectroscopy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ni, Wangdong; Nørgaard, Lars; Mørup, Morten

2014-01-01

by ridge regression (RR). The performance of the different methods is demonstrated by their practical applications using three real-life near infrared (NIR) data sets. Different aspects of the various approaches including computational time, model interpretability, potential over-fitting using the non-linear...... models on linear problems, robustness to small or medium sample sets, and robustness to pre-processing, are discussed. The results suggest that GPR and BANN are powerful and promising methods for handling linear as well as nonlinear systems, even when the data sets are moderately small. The LS......-SVM), relevance vector machines (RVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), artificial neural network (ANN), and Bayesian ANN (BANN). In this comparison, partial least squares (PLS) regression is used as a linear benchmark, while the relationship of the methods is considered in terms of traditional calibration...

Using Logistic Regression To Predict the Probability of Debris Flows Occurring in Areas Recently Burned By Wildland Fires

Science.gov (United States)

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.

2003-01-01

Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of debris flows occurring in areas recently burned by wildland fires. Multiple logistic regression is conceptually similar to multiple linear regression because statistical relations between one dependent variable and several independent variables are evaluated. In logistic regression, however, the dependent variable is transformed to a binary variable (debris flow did or did not occur), and the actual probability of the debris flow occurring is statistically modeled. Data from 399 basins located within 15 wildland fires that burned during 2000-2002 in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and New Mexico were evaluated. More than 35 independent variables describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows were delineated from National Elevation Data using a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Data describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were determined for each basin. These data were then downloaded to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression. (3) Relations between the occurrence/non-occurrence of debris flows and burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated and several preliminary multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combination produced the most effective model. The multivariate model that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows was selected. (4) The multivariate logistic regression model was entered into a GIS, and a map showing the probability of debris flows was constructed. The most effective model incorporates the percentage of each basin with slope greater than 30 percent, percentage of land burned at medium and high burn severity

Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Harwood, R. Corban

2018-01-01

This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

Comparison of nonstationary generalized logistic models based on Monte Carlo simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, the evidences of climate change have been observed in hydrologic data such as rainfall and flow data. The time-dependent characteristics of statistics in hydrologic data are widely defined as nonstationarity. Therefore, various nonstationary GEV and generalized Pareto models have been suggested for frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum and POT (peak-over-threshold data, respectively. However, the alternative models are required for nonstatinoary frequency analysis because of analyzing the complex characteristics of nonstationary data based on climate change. This study proposed the nonstationary generalized logistic model including time-dependent parameters. The parameters of proposed model are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood based on the Newton-Raphson method. In addition, the proposed model is compared by Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the characteristics of models and applicability.

[From clinical judgment to linear regression model.

Science.gov (United States)

Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Pérez, Marcela; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Talavera, Juan O

2013-01-01

When we think about mathematical models, such as linear regression model, we think that these terms are only used by those engaged in research, a notion that is far from the truth. Legendre described the first mathematical model in 1805, and Galton introduced the formal term in 1886. Linear regression is one of the most commonly used regression models in clinical practice. It is useful to predict or show the relationship between two or more variables as long as the dependent variable is quantitative and has normal distribution. Stated in another way, the regression is used to predict a measure based on the knowledge of at least one other variable. Linear regression has as it's first objective to determine the slope or inclination of the regression line: Y = a + bx, where "a" is the intercept or regression constant and it is equivalent to "Y" value when "X" equals 0 and "b" (also called slope) indicates the increase or decrease that occurs when the variable "x" increases or decreases in one unit. In the regression line, "b" is called regression coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) indicates the importance of independent variables in the outcome.

Defining a Family of Cognitive Diagnosis Models Using Log-Linear Models with Latent Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Henson, Robert A.; Templin, Jonathan L.; Willse, John T.

2009-01-01

This paper uses log-linear models with latent variables (Hagenaars, in "Loglinear Models with Latent Variables," 1993) to define a family of cognitive diagnosis models. In doing so, the relationship between many common models is explicitly defined and discussed. In addition, because the log-linear model with latent variables is a general model for…

Comparison of multinomial logistic regression and logistic regression: which is more efficient in allocating land use?

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yingzhi; Deng, Xiangzheng; Li, Xing; Ma, Enjun

2014-12-01

Spatially explicit simulation of land use change is the basis for estimating the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology and the environment. At the pixel level, logistic regression is one of the most common approaches used in spatially explicit land use allocation models to determine the relationship between land use and its causal factors in driving land use change, and thereby to evaluate land use suitability. However, these models have a drawback in that they do not determine/allocate land use based on the direct relationship between land use change and its driving factors. Consequently, a multinomial logistic regression method was introduced to address this flaw, and thereby, judge the suitability of a type of land use in any given pixel in a case study area of the Jiangxi Province, China. A comparison of the two regression methods indicated that the proportion of correctly allocated pixels using multinomial logistic regression was 92.98%, which was 8.47% higher than that obtained using logistic regression. Paired t-test results also showed that pixels were more clearly distinguished by multinomial logistic regression than by logistic regression. In conclusion, multinomial logistic regression is a more efficient and accurate method for the spatial allocation of land use changes. The application of this method in future land use change studies may improve the accuracy of predicting the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology, and environment.

Effect of folic acid on appetite in children: ordinal logistic and fuzzy logistic regressions.

Science.gov (United States)

Namdari, Mahshid; Abadi, Alireza; Taheri, S Mahmoud; Rezaei, Mansour; Kalantari, Naser; Omidvar, Nasrin

2014-03-01

Reduced appetite and low food intake are often a concern in preschool children, since it can lead to malnutrition, a leading cause of impaired growth and mortality in childhood. It is occasionally considered that folic acid has a positive effect on appetite enhancement and consequently growth in children. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of folic acid on the appetite of preschool children 3 to 6 y old. The study sample included 127 children ages 3 to 6 who were randomly selected from 20 preschools in the city of Tehran in 2011. Since appetite was measured by linguistic terms, a fuzzy logistic regression was applied for modeling. The obtained results were compared with a statistical ordinal logistic model. After controlling for the potential confounders, in a statistical ordinal logistic model, serum folate showed a significantly positive effect on appetite. A small but positive effect of folate was detected by fuzzy logistic regression. Based on fuzzy regression, the risk for poor appetite in preschool children was related to the employment status of their mothers. In this study, a positive association was detected between the levels of serum folate and improved appetite. For further investigation, a randomized controlled, double-blind clinical trial could be helpful to address causality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic mixtures and linear invariants for equal input models.

Science.gov (United States)

Casanellas, Marta; Steel, Mike

2017-04-01

The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from molecular sequence data relies on modelling site substitutions by a Markov process, or a mixture of such processes. In general, allowing mixed processes can result in different tree topologies becoming indistinguishable from the data, even for infinitely long sequences. However, when the underlying Markov process supports linear phylogenetic invariants, then provided these are sufficiently informative, the identifiability of the tree topology can be restored. In this paper, we investigate a class of processes that support linear invariants once the stationary distribution is fixed, the 'equal input model'. This model generalizes the 'Felsenstein 1981' model (and thereby the Jukes-Cantor model) from four states to an arbitrary number of states (finite or infinite), and it can also be described by a 'random cluster' process. We describe the structure and dimension of the vector spaces of phylogenetic mixtures and of linear invariants for any fixed phylogenetic tree (and for all trees-the so called 'model invariants'), on any number n of leaves. We also provide a precise description of the space of mixtures and linear invariants for the special case of [Formula: see text] leaves. By combining techniques from discrete random processes and (multi-) linear algebra, our results build on a classic result that was first established by James Lake (Mol Biol Evol 4:167-191, 1987).

Going Mobile: An Empirical Model for Explaining Successful Information Logistics in Ward Rounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Esdar, Moritz; Liebe, Jan-David; Babitsch, Birgit; Hübner, Ursula

2018-01-01

Medical ward rounds are critical focal points of inpatient care that call for uniquely flexible solutions to provide clinical information at the bedside. While this fact is undoubted, adoption rates of mobile IT solutions remain rather low. Our goal was to investigate if and how mobile IT solutions influence successful information provision at the bedside, i.e. clinical information logistics, as well as to shed light at socio-organizational factors that facilitate adoption rates from a user-centered perspective. Survey data were collected from 373 medical and nursing directors of German, Austrian and Swiss hospitals and analyzed using variance-based Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The adoption of mobile IT solutions explains large portions of clinical information logistics and is in itself associated with an organizational culture of innovation and end user participation. Results should encourage decision makers to understand mobility as a core constituent of information logistics and thus to promote close end-user participation as well as to work towards building a culture of innovation.

Country logistics performance and disaster impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaillancourt, Alain; Haavisto, Ira

2016-04-01

The aim of this paper is to deepen the understanding of the relationship between country logistics performance and disaster impact. The relationship is analysed through correlation analysis and regression models for 117 countries for the years 2007 to 2012 with disaster impact variables from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and logistics performance indicators from the World Bank. The results show a significant relationship between country logistics performance and disaster impact overall and for five out of six specific logistic performance indicators. These specific indicators were further used to explore the relationship between country logistic performance and disaster impact for three specific disaster types (epidemic, flood and storm). The findings enhance the understanding of the role of logistics in a humanitarian context with empirical evidence of the importance of country logistics performance in disaster response operations. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Forecasting the EMU inflation rate: Linear econometric vs. non-linear computational models using genetic neural fuzzy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kooths, Stefan; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Ringhut, Eric

2004-01-01

This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according...

A class of non-linear exposure-response models suitable for health impact assessment applicable to large cohort studies of ambient air pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Nasari, Masoud M; Szyszkowicz, Mieczysław; Chen, Hong; Crouse, Daniel; Turner, Michelle C; Jerrett, Michael; Pope, C Arden; Hubbell, Bryan; Fann, Neal; Cohen, Aaron; Gapstur, Susan M; Diver, W Ryan; Stieb, David; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Krewski, Daniel; Burnett, Richard T

2016-01-01

The effectiveness of regulatory actions designed to improve air quality is often assessed by predicting changes in public health resulting from their implementation. Risk of premature mortality from long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is the single most important contributor to such assessments and is estimated from observational studies generally assuming a log-linear, no-threshold association between ambient concentrations and death. There has been only limited assessment of this assumption in part because of a lack of methods to estimate the shape of the exposure-response function in very large study populations. In this paper, we propose a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment. We construct the class by defining transformations of concentration as the product of either a linear or log-linear function of concentration multiplied by a logistic weighting function. These risk functions can be estimated using hazard regression survival models with currently available computer software and can accommodate large population-based cohorts which are increasingly being used for this purpose. We illustrate our modeling approach with two large cohort studies of long-term concentrations of ambient air pollution and mortality: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort and the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). We then estimate the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period in both Canada and the USA using both linear and non-linear hazard function models.

A BEHAVIORAL-APPROACH TO LINEAR EXACT MODELING

NARCIS (Netherlands)

ANTOULAS, AC; WILLEMS, JC

1993-01-01

The behavioral approach to system theory provides a parameter-free framework for the study of the general problem of linear exact modeling and recursive modeling. The main contribution of this paper is the solution of the (continuous-time) polynomial-exponential time series modeling problem. Both

A Case Study Using Modeling and Simulation to Predict Logistics Supply Chain Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, David A.

2007-01-01

Optimization of critical supply chains to deliver thousands of parts, materials, sub-assemblies, and vehicle structures as needed is vital to the success of the Constellation Program. Thorough analysis needs to be performed on the integrated supply chain processes to plan, source, make, deliver, and return critical items efficiently. Process modeling provides simulation technology-based, predictive solutions for supply chain problems which enable decision makers to reduce costs, accelerate cycle time and improve business performance. For example, United Space Alliance, LLC utilized this approach in late 2006 to build simulation models that recreated shuttle orbiter thruster failures and predicted the potential impact of thruster removals on logistics spare assets. The main objective was the early identification of possible problems in providing thruster spares for the remainder of the Shuttle Flight Manifest. After extensive analysis the model results were used to quantify potential problems and led to improvement actions in the supply chain. Similarly the proper modeling and analysis of Constellation parts, materials, operations, and information flows will help ensure the efficiency of the critical logistics supply chains and the overall success of the program.

Interpreting parameters in the logistic regression model with random effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Klaus; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2000-01-01

interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects......interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects...

Non-linear scaling of a musculoskeletal model of the lower limb using statistical shape models.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, Daniel; Tsang, Chui Kit; Zhang, Kai Yu; Ding, Ziyun; Kedgley, Angela E; Bull, Anthony M J

2016-10-03

Accurate muscle geometry for musculoskeletal models is important to enable accurate subject-specific simulations. Commonly, linear scaling is used to obtain individualised muscle geometry. More advanced methods include non-linear scaling using segmented bone surfaces and manual or semi-automatic digitisation of muscle paths from medical images. In this study, a new scaling method combining non-linear scaling with reconstructions of bone surfaces using statistical shape modelling is presented. Statistical Shape Models (SSMs) of femur and tibia/fibula were used to reconstruct bone surfaces of nine subjects. Reference models were created by morphing manually digitised muscle paths to mean shapes of the SSMs using non-linear transformations and inter-subject variability was calculated. Subject-specific models of muscle attachment and via points were created from three reference models. The accuracy was evaluated by calculating the differences between the scaled and manually digitised models. The points defining the muscle paths showed large inter-subject variability at the thigh and shank - up to 26mm; this was found to limit the accuracy of all studied scaling methods. Errors for the subject-specific muscle point reconstructions of the thigh could be decreased by 9% to 20% by using the non-linear scaling compared to a typical linear scaling method. We conclude that the proposed non-linear scaling method is more accurate than linear scaling methods. Thus, when combined with the ability to reconstruct bone surfaces from incomplete or scattered geometry data using statistical shape models our proposed method is an alternative to linear scaling methods. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Comparing Linear Discriminant Function with Logistic Regression for the Two-Group Classification Problem.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Xitao; Wang, Lin

The Monte Carlo study compared the performance of predictive discriminant analysis (PDA) and that of logistic regression (LR) for the two-group classification problem. Prior probabilities were used for classification, but the cost of misclassification was assumed to be equal. The study used a fully crossed three-factor experimental design (with…

Preisach hysteresis model for non-linear 2D heat diffusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jancskar, Ildiko; Ivanyi, Amalia

2006-01-01

This paper analyzes a non-linear heat diffusion process when the thermal diffusivity behaviour is a hysteretic function of the temperature. Modelling this temperature dependence, the discrete Preisach algorithm as general hysteresis model has been integrated into a non-linear multigrid solver. The hysteretic diffusion shows a heating-cooling asymmetry in character. The presented type of hysteresis speeds up the thermal processes in the modelled systems by a very interesting non-linear way

Tip-tilt disturbance model identification based on non-linear least squares fitting for Linear Quadratic Gaussian control

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Kangjian; Yang, Ping; Wang, Shuai; Dong, Lizhi; Xu, Bing

2018-05-01

We propose a method to identify tip-tilt disturbance model for Linear Quadratic Gaussian control. This identification method based on Levenberg-Marquardt method conducts with a little prior information and no auxiliary system and it is convenient to identify the tip-tilt disturbance model on-line for real-time control. This identification method makes it easy that Linear Quadratic Gaussian control runs efficiently in different adaptive optics systems for vibration mitigation. The validity of the Linear Quadratic Gaussian control associated with this tip-tilt disturbance model identification method is verified by experimental data, which is conducted in replay mode by simulation.

Persistence and extinction for a stochastic logistic model with infinite delay

OpenAIRE

Chun Lu; Xiaohua Ding

2013-01-01

This article, studies a stochastic logistic model with infinite delay. Using a phase space, we establish sufficient conditions for the extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, and stochastic permanence. A threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Our results state that different types of environmental noises have different effects on the persistence and extinction, and that the delay has no impact on the persistence and ext...

On-line validation of linear process models using generalized likelihood ratios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tylee, J.L.

1981-12-01

A real-time method for testing the validity of linear models of nonlinear processes is described and evaluated. Using generalized likelihood ratios, the model dynamics are continually monitored to see if the process has moved far enough away from the nominal linear model operating point to justify generation of a new linear model. The method is demonstrated using a seventh-order model of a natural circulation steam generator

Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam [Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia amirul@unisel.edu.my, zalila@cs.usm.my, norlida@usm.my, adam@usm.my (Malaysia)

2015-10-22

Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.

Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam