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Sample records for levels predict survival

  1. Soluble L-selectin levels predict survival in sepsis

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    Seidelin, Jakob B; Nielsen, Ole H; Strøm, Jens

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate serum soluble L-selectin as a prognostic factor for survival in patients with sepsis. DESIGN: A prospective study of mortality in patients with sepsis whose serum levels of sL-selectin were measured on admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and 4 days later. Follow-up data......, and 3 and 12 months after admission. Serum sL-selectin levels were significantly lower in the patients than in the controls. Sepsis nonsurvivors had significantly lower levels than survivors. Efficiency analysis and receiver operation characteristics showed that the ideal cutoff point for s......L-selectin as a test for sepsis survival was 470 ng/ml. The accumulated mortality in patients with subnormal sL-selectin levels on admission was significantly increased. No correlation was found between clinical or paraclinical markers, including SAPS II and sL-selectin, and no relationship to the microbial diagnosis...

  2. Progesterone receptor levels independently predict survival in endometrial adenocarcinoma

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    Nyholm, H C; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Nielsen, Anette Lynge

    1995-01-01

    to correlations to cancer-specific survival in a multivariate analysis including histopathological characteristics. Median patient follow-up time was 67 months with 18 cancer deaths. The PR-DCC and ER-DCC values were dichotomized according to levels previously found by us to correspond to the best agreement...... between receptor status as determined by the DCC and ICA methods (130 fmol/mg cytosol protein for ER, 114 fmol/mg for PR). Using these thresholds, we found by multivariate analysis that "high" PR-DCC levels (> 114 fmol/mg) correlated significantly (P = 0.004) with survival, independent of stage risk group...... could not be statistically evaluated due to the number of cases with eligible ICA values. However, we suggest that owing to a close correlation between DCC and ICA results, PR-ICA status may provide significant prognostic information when DCC measurements are not available....

  3. Soluble L-selectin levels predict survival in sepsis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seidelin, Jakob B; Nielsen, Ole H; Strøm, Jens

    2002-01-01

    To evaluate serum soluble L-selectin as a prognostic factor for survival in patients with sepsis.......To evaluate serum soluble L-selectin as a prognostic factor for survival in patients with sepsis....

  4. Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galapagos marine iguanas during El Nino events.

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    Romero, L M; Wikelski, M

    2001-06-19

    Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of "stress" in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations.

  5. Postoperative serum CEA level as predictive factor for survival in patients with colorectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemberger, J.J.; Bogar, M.L.; Takacs Kucsera, M.F.; Csernetics, I.F.

    2002-01-01

    Aim: It is known that routine follow-up of patients with resected colorectal cancer includes serial CEA determinations. In this retrospective study we have investigated relationship between CEA level and survival and whether achieved results enable differentiation of tumors with slow and rapid growth. Material and Methods: Mainly between 1995 and 1999 periodic CEA determination by IRMA were performed in 269 patients after curative resection of colorectal carcinoma. Number of CEA determination/patient were 2-16(median 6). Survival ranged 4,5 and>249,7 months. Based on CEA results patients were divided in group with normal (<10ng/ml) and elevated (=10ng/ml) values regardless of postoperative treatment. Survival curves were computed by Kaplan-Meier method and difference was evaluated by logrank test and difference between proportions. Results:Normal end elevated CEA was found in 193 and 76 patients, respectively. The difference of survival curves between patients with normal and elevated CEA are highly significant (p<0,0001). However, only 10 months after tumor resection is the difference between survived proportions significant suggesting already presence of CEA produced micrometastases contributing to progression of neoplastic process. The mean survival time at normal and elevated CEA values are 142,54±17,86(median 128,60±24,04) and 34,15±4,28 (median 25,20±1,97) months, respectively. No significant difference of survival was found regarding tumor localization. Conclusion:The results show that with regard to CEA level it is possible to divide colorectal tumors on marker negative and positive. Marker negative are with slower growth and relatively good prognosis. Marker positive are associated with elevated CEA level and with considerable shorter survival. Postoperative CEA level is valuable parameter in prediction of patient's outcome

  6. Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galápagos marine iguanas during El Niño events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, L. Michael; Wikelski, Martin

    2001-01-01

    Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of “stress” in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations. PMID:11416210

  7. Can preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels predict survival and early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma?

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    Wang, Jun-Ke; Hu, Hai-Jie; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Liu, Fei; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

    2017-07-11

    To investigate the predictive values of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on survival and other prognostic factors including early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. In univariate analysis, increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels in the light of different cut-off points (37, 100, 150, 200, 400, 1000 U/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival outcomes, of which the cut-off point of 150 U/ml showed the strongest predictive value (both P 150 U/ml was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.471, 95% CI 1.216-9.905; P = 0.020) and early recurrence (OR = 8.280, 95% CI 2.391-28.674; P = 0.001). Meanwhile, postoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was also correlated with early recurrence (OR = 4.006, 95% CI 1.107-14.459; P = 0.034). Ninety-eight patients who had undergone curative surgery for hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1995 and 2014 in our institution were selected for the study. The correlations of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on the basis of different cut-off points with survival and various tumor factors were retrospectively analyzed with univariate and multivariate methods. In patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma, serum CA19-9 predict survival and early recurrence. Patients with increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels have poor survival outcomes and higher tendency of early recurrence.

  8. Plasma Levels of Soluble HLA-E and HLA-F at Diagnosis May Predict Overall Survival of Neuroblastoma Patients

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    Fabio Morandi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to identify the plasma/serum biomarkers that are able to predict overall survival (OS of neuroblastoma (NB patients. Concentration of soluble (s biomarkers was evaluated in plasma (sHLA-E, sHLA-F, chromogranin, and B7H3 or serum (calprotectin samples from NB patients or healthy children. The levels of biomarkers that were significantly higher in NB patients were then analyzed considering localized or metastatic subsets. Finally, biomarkers that were significantly different in these two subsets were correlated with patient’s outcome. With the exception of B7H3, levels of all molecules were significantly higher in NB patients than those in controls. However, only chromogranin, sHLA-E, and sHLA-F levels were different between patients with metastatic and localized tumors. sHLA-E and -F levels correlated with each other but not chromogranin. Chromogranin levels correlated with different event-free survival (EFS, whereas sHLA-E and -F levels also correlated with different OS. Association with OS was also detected considering only patients with metastatic disease. In conclusion, low levels of sHLA-E and -F significantly associated with worse EFS/OS in the whole cohort of NB patients and in patients with metastatic NB. Thus, these molecules deserve to be tested in prospective studies to evaluate their predictive power for high-risk NB patients.

  9. Survivin gene levels in the peripheral blood of patients with gastric cancer independently predict survival

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    Scalerta Romano

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The detection of circulating tumor cells (CTC is considered a promising tool for improving risk stratification in patients with solid tumors. We investigated on whether the expression of CTC related genes adds any prognostic power to the TNM staging system in patients with gastric carcinoma. Methods Seventy patients with TNM stage I to IV gastric carcinoma were retrospectively enrolled. Peripheral blood samples were tested by means of quantitative real time PCR (qrtPCR for the expression of four CTC related genes: carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA, cytokeratin-19 (CK19, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF and Survivin (BIRC5. Results Gene expression of Survivin, CK19, CEA and VEGF was higher than in normal controls in 98.6%, 97.1%, 42.9% and 38.6% of cases, respectively, suggesting a potential diagnostic value of both Survivin and CK19. At multivariable survival analysis, TNM staging and Survivin mRNA levels were retained as independent prognostic factors, demonstrating that Survivin expression in the peripheral blood adds prognostic information to the TNM system. In contrast with previously published data, the transcript abundance of CEA, CK19 and VEGF was not associated with patients' clinical outcome. Conclusions Gene expression levels of Survivin add significant prognostic value to the current TNM staging system. The validation of these findings in larger prospective and multicentric series might lead to the implementation of this biomarker in the routine clinical setting in order to optimize risk stratification and ultimately personalize the therapeutic management of these patients.

  10. Postoperative Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Levels Reflect the Graft's Function and Predict Survival after Liver Transplantation.

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    Daniele Nicolini

    Full Text Available The reduction of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1 plasma levels is associated with the degree of liver dysfunction and mortality in cirrhotic patients. However, little research is available on the recovery of the IGF-1 level and its prognostic role after liver transplantation (LT.From April 2010 to May 2011, 31 patients were prospectively enrolled (25/6 M/F; mean age±SEM: 55.2±1.4 years, and IGF-1 serum levels were assessed preoperatively and at 15, 30, 90, 180 and 365 days after transplantation. The influence of the donor and recipient characteristics (age, use of extended criteria donor grafts, D-MELD and incidence of early allograft dysfunction on hormonal concentration was analyzed. The prognostic role of IGF-1 level on patient survival and its correlation with routine liver function tests were also investigated.All patients showed low preoperative IGF-1 levels (mean±SEM: 29.5±2.1, and on postoperative day 15, a significant increase in the IGF-1 plasma level was observed (102.7±11.7 ng/ml; p65 years or extended criteria donor grafts. An inverse correlation between IGF-1 and bilirubin serum levels at day 15 (r = -0.3924, p = 0.0320 and 30 (r = -0.3894, p = 0.0368 was found. After multivariate analysis, early (within 15 days IGF-1 normalization [Exp(b = 3.913; p = 0.0484] was the only prognostic factor associated with an increased 3-year survival rate.IGF-1 postoperative levels are correlated with the graft's quality and reflect liver function. Early IGF-1 recovery is associated with a higher 3-year survival rate after LT.

  11. Early antibiotic administration but not antibody therapy directed against IL-6 improves survival in septic mice predicted to die on basis of high IL-6 levels.

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    Vyas, Dinesh; Javadi, Pardis; Dipasco, Peter J; Buchman, Timothy G; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Coopersmith, Craig M

    2005-10-01

    Elevated interleukin (IL)-6 levels correlate with increased mortality following sepsis. IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml drawn 6 h after cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) are associated with 100% mortality in ND4 mice, even if antibiotic therapy is initiated 12 h after septic insult. Our first aim was to see whether earlier institution of antibiotic therapy could improve overall survival in septic mice and rescue the subset of animals predicted to die on the basis of high IL-6 levels. Mice (n = 184) were subjected to CLP, had IL-6 levels drawn 6 h later, and then were randomized to receive imipenem, a broad spectrum antimicrobial agent, beginning 6 or 12 h postoperatively. Overall 1-wk survival improved from 25.5 to 35.9% with earlier administration of antibiotics (P 14,000 pg/ml, 25% survived if imipenem was started at 6 h, whereas none survived if antibiotics were started later (P 14,000 pg/ml. These results demonstrate that earlier systemic therapy can improve outcome in a subset of mice predicted to die in sepsis, but we are unable to demonstrate any benefit in similar animals using targeted therapy directed at IL-6.

  12. Early antibiotic administration but not antibody therapy directed against IL-6 improves survival in septic mice predicted to die based upon high IL-6 levels

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    Vyas, Dinesh; Javadi, Pardis; DiPasco, Peter J; Buchman, Timothy G; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Coopersmith, Craig M

    2005-01-01

    Elevated interleukin (IL)-6 levels correlate with increased mortality following sepsis. IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml drawn 6 hours following cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) are associated with 100% mortality in ND4 mice, even if antibiotic therapy is initiated 12 hours after the septic insult. The first aim of this study was to see if earlier institution of antibiotic therapy could improve overall survival in septic mice and rescue the subset of animals predicted to die based upon high IL-6 levels. Mice (n=184) were subjected to CLP, had IL-6 levels drawn six hours later and then were randomized to receive imipenem, a broad spectrum antimicrobial agent, beginning six or twelve hours post-operatively. Overall one-week survival improved from 25.5% to 35.9% with earlier administration of antibiotics (p14,000 pg/ml, 25% survived if imipenem was started at 6 hours, while none survived if antibiotics were started later (p14,000 pg/ml. These results demonstrate that earlier systemic therapy can improve outcome in a subset of mice predicted to die in sepsis, but we are unable to demonstrate any benefit in similar animals using targeted therapy directed at IL-6. PMID:15947070

  13. Erratic tacrolimus exposure, assessed using the standard deviation of trough blood levels, predicts chronic lung allograft dysfunction and survival.

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    Gallagher, Harry M; Sarwar, Ghulam; Tse, Tracy; Sladden, Timothy M; Hii, Esmond; Yerkovich, Stephanie T; Hopkins, Peter M; Chambers, Daniel C

    2015-11-01

    Erratic tacrolimus blood levels are associated with liver and kidney graft failure. We hypothesized that erratic tacrolimus exposure would similarly compromise lung transplant outcomes. This study assessed the effect of tacrolimus mean and standard deviation (SD) levels on the risk of chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) and death after lung transplantation. We retrospectively reviewed 110 lung transplant recipients who received tacrolimus-based immunosuppression. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to investigate the effect of tacrolimus mean and SD levels on survival and CLAD. At census, 48 patients (44%) had developed CLAD and 37 (34%) had died. Tacrolimus SD was highest for the first 6 post-transplant months (median, 4.01; interquartile range [IQR], 3.04-4.98 months) before stabilizing at 2.84 μg/liter (IQR, 2.16-4.13 μg/liter) between 6 and 12 months. The SD then remained the same (median, 2.85; IQR, 2.00-3.77 μg/liter) between 12 and 24 months. A high mean tacrolimus level 6 to 12 months post-transplant independently reduced the risk of CLAD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.86; p < 0.001) but not death (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.83-1.12; p = 0.65). In contrast, a high tacrolimus SD between 6 and 12 months independently increased the risk of CLAD (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.23-1.73; p < 0.001) and death (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.08-1.51; p = 0.005). Erratic tacrolimus levels are a risk factor for poor lung transplant outcomes. Identifying and modifying factors that contribute to this variability may significantly improve outcomes. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Physical condition and stress levels during early development reflect feeding rates and predict pre- and post-fledging survival in a nearshore seabird.

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    Lamb, Juliet S; O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Jodice, Patrick G R

    2016-01-01

    The effects of acute environmental stressors on reproduction in wildlife are often difficult to measure because of the labour and disturbance involved in collecting accurate reproductive data. Stress hormones represent a promising option for assessing the effects of environmental perturbations on altricial young; however, it is necessary first to establish how stress levels are affected by environmental conditions during development and whether elevated stress results in reduced survival and recruitment rates. In birds, the stress hormone corticosterone is deposited in feathers during the entire period of feather growth, making it an integrated measure of background stress levels during development. We tested the utility of feather corticosterone levels in 3- to 4-week-old nestling brown pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis ) for predicting survival rates at both the individual and colony levels. We also assessed the relationship of feather corticosterone to nestling body condition and rates of energy delivery to nestlings. Chicks with higher body condition and lower corticosterone levels were more likely to fledge and to be resighted after fledging, whereas those with lower body condition and higher corticosterone levels were less likely to fledge or be resighted after fledging. Feather corticosterone was also associated with intracolony differences in survival between ground and elevated nest sites. Colony-wide, mean feather corticosterone predicted nest productivity, chick survival and post-fledging dispersal more effectively than did body condition, although these relationships were strongest before fledglings dispersed away from the colony. Both reproductive success and nestling corticosterone were strongly related to nutritional conditions, particularly meal delivery rates. We conclude that feather corticosterone is a powerful predictor of reproductive success and could provide a useful metric for rapidly assessing the effects of changes in environmental

  15. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis.

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    Michael A Ruderman

    Full Text Available This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004.Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees.Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis.Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05-4.17, drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00-2.98, non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73-2.64, violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45-2.43, and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37-2.53.Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted.

  16. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis.

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    Ruderman, Michael A; Wilson, Deirdra F; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05-4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00-2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73-2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45-2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37-2.53). Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted.

  17. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Methods Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490

  18. Predictive value of soluble haemoglobin scavenger receptor CD163 serum levels for survival in verified tuberculosis patients

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    Knudsen, T.B.; Gustafson, P.; Kronborg, G.

    2005-01-01

    Pre-treatment serum levels of sCD163 were measured in a cohort of 236 suspected tuberculosis (TB) cases from Guinea-Bissau, with a median follow-up period of 3.3 years (range 0-6.4 years). In 113 cases, the diagnosis of TB was verified by positive sputum microscopy and/or culture. Among the verif......Pre-treatment serum levels of sCD163 were measured in a cohort of 236 suspected tuberculosis (TB) cases from Guinea-Bissau, with a median follow-up period of 3.3 years (range 0-6.4 years). In 113 cases, the diagnosis of TB was verified by positive sputum microscopy and/or culture. Among...

  19. Urate levels predict survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Analysis of the expanded Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS clinical trials database.

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    Paganoni, Sabrina; Nicholson, Katharine; Chan, James; Shui, Amy; Schoenfeld, David; Sherman, Alexander; Berry, James; Cudkowicz, Merit; Atassi, Nazem

    2018-03-01

    Urate has been identified as a predictor of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) survival in some but not all studies. Here we leverage the recent expansion of the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database to study the association between urate levels and ALS survival. Pooled data of 1,736 ALS participants from the PRO-ACT database were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate associations between urate levels at trial entry and survival. After adjustment for potential confounders (i.e., creatinine and body mass index), there was an 11% reduction in risk of reaching a survival endpoint during the study with each 1-mg/dL increase in uric acid levels (adjusted hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.82-0.97, P ALS and confirms the utility of the PRO-ACT database as a powerful resource for ALS epidemiological research. Muscle Nerve 57: 430-434, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Nomogram incorporating PSA level to predict cancer-specific survival for men with clinically localized prostate cancer managed without curative intent

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    Kattan, Michael W.; Cuzick, Jack; Fisher, Gabrielle; Berney, Daniel M.; Oliver, Tim; Foster, Christopher S.; Møller, Henrik; Reuter, Victor; Fearn, Paul; Eastham, James; Scardino, Peter T.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction The prognosis of men with clinically localized prostate cancer is highly variable, and it is difficult to counsel a man who may be considering avoiding, or delaying, aggressive therapy. After collecting data on a large cohort of men who received no initial active prostate cancer therapy, we sought to develop, and to internally validate, a nomogram for prediction of disease-specific survival. Methods Working with 6 cancer registries within England and numerous hospitals in the region, we constructed a population-based cohort of men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1990 and 1996. All men had baseline serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) measurements, centralized pathologic grading, and centralized review of clinical stage assignment. Based upon the clinical and pathological data from 1,911 men, we developed and validated a statistical model that served as the basis for the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were assessed with use of one third of the men, who were omitted from modeling and used as a test sample. Results The median age of the included men was 70.4 years. The 25th and 75th percentiles of PSA were 7.3 and 32.6 ng/ml respectively, and the median was 15.4 ng/ml. Forty-two percent of the men had high grade disease. The nomogram predicted well with a concordance index of 0.73 and had good calibration. Conclusions We have developed an accurate tool for predicting the probability that a man with clinically localized prostate cancer will survive his disease for 120 months if the cancer is not treated with curative intent immediately. The tool should be helpful for patient counseling and clinical trial design. PMID:18000803

  1. Country-Level Macroeconomic Indicators Predict Early Post-Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Survival in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A CIBMTR Analysis.

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    Wood, William A; Brazauskas, Ruta; Hu, Zhen-Huan; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Ahmed, Ibrahim A; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Badawy, Sherif; Beitinjaneh, Amer; George, Biju; Buchbinder, David; Cerny, Jan; Dedeken, Laurence; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Freytes, Cesar O; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Gergis, Usama; Almaguer, David Gomez; Gupta, Ashish; Hale, Gregory; Hashmi, Shahrukh K; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Kamble, Rammurti T; Adekola, Kehinde; Kindwall-Keller, Tamila; Knight, Jennifer; Kumar, Lalit; Kuwatsuka, Yachiyo; Law, Jason; Lazarus, Hillard M; LeMaistre, Charles; Olsson, Richard F; Pulsipher, Michael A; Savani, Bipin N; Schultz, Kirk R; Saad, Ayman A; Seftel, Matthew; Seo, Sachiko; Shea, Thomas C; Steinberg, Amir; Sullivan, Keith; Szwajcer, David; Wirk, Baldeep; Yared, Jean; Yong, Agnes; Dalal, Jignesh; Hahn, Theresa; Khera, Nandita; Bonfim, Carmem; Atsuta, Yoshiko; Saber, Wael

    2018-03-19

    For patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) offers a potential cure. Life-threatening complications can arise from alloHCT that require the application of sophisticated health care delivery. The impact of country-level economic conditions on post-transplantation outcomes is not known. Our objective was to assess whether these variables were associated with outcomes for patients transplanted for ALL. Using data from the Center for Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, we included 11,261 patients who received a first alloHCT for ALL from 303 centers across 38 countries between the years of 2005 and 2013. Cox regression models were constructed using the following macroeconomic indicators as main effects: Gross national income per capita, health expenditure per capita, and Human Development Index (HDI). The outcome was overall survival at 100 days following transplantation. In each model, transplants performed within lower resourced environments were associated with inferior overall survival. In the model with the HDI as the main effect, transplants performed in the lowest HDI quartile (n = 697) were associated with increased hazard for mortality (hazard ratio, 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.64 to 3.57; P macroeconomic indices were associated with lower survival at 100 days after alloHCT for ALL. The reasons for this disparity require further investigation. Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Improving the Prediction of Prostate Cancer Overall Survival by Supplementing Readily Available Clinical Data with Gene Expression Levels of IGFBP3 and F3 in Formalin-Fixed Paraffin Embedded Core Needle Biopsy Material.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuochun Peng

    Full Text Available A previously reported expression signature of three genes (IGFBP3, F3 and VGLL3 was shown to have potential prognostic value in estimating overall and cancer-specific survivals at diagnosis of prostate cancer in a pilot cohort study using freshly frozen Fine Needle Aspiration (FNA samples.We carried out a new cohort study with 241 prostate cancer patients diagnosed from 2004-2007 with a follow-up exceeding 6 years in order to verify the prognostic value of gene expression signature in formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE prostate core needle biopsy tissue samples. The cohort consisted of four patient groups with different survival times and death causes. A four multiplex one-step RT-qPCR test kit, designed and optimized for measuring the expression signature in FFPE core needle biopsy samples, was used. In archive FFPE biopsy samples the expression differences of two genes (IGFBP3 and F3 were measured. The survival time predictions using the current clinical parameters only, such as age at diagnosis, Gleason score, PSA value and tumor stage, and clinical parameters supplemented with the expression levels of IGFBP3 and F3, were compared.When combined with currently used clinical parameters, the gene expression levels of IGFBP3 and F3 are improving the prediction of survival time as compared to using clinical parameters alone.The assessment of IGFBP3 and F3 gene expression levels in FFPE prostate cancer tissue would provide an improved survival prediction for prostate cancer patients at the time of diagnosis.

  3. Illness perceptions predict survival in haemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilcot, Joseph; Wellsted, David; Farrington, Ken

    2011-01-01

    Illness perceptions have been shown to be important determinants of functional and psychosocial outcomes, including quality of life and treatment adherence in end-stage renal disease patients. The aim of this prospective study was to determine whether haemodialysis patients' illness perceptions impact upon survival. Haemodialysis patients from a UK renal service completed the Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire. Over the study period (May 2007 to December 2010), all-cause mortality was recorded as the endpoint. 223 patients were followed up for a median of 15.9 months (min. 10 days, max. 42.7 months). The median dialysis vintage was 17.6 months (min. 4 days, max. 391.3 months). Treatment control perceptions demonstrated a significant association with mortality (HR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83-0.99, p = 0.03). After controlling for covariates, including age, albumin, extra renal comorbidity and depression scores, perception of treatment control remained a significant predictor of mortality (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99, p = 0.03). Patients' perceptions of treatment control (dialysis therapy) predict survival independently of survival risk factors, including comorbidity. Studies are required to test whether psychological interventions designed to modify maladaptive illness perceptions influence clinical outcomes in this patient setting. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Early post-transplant immune monitoring can predict long-term kidney graft survival: soluble CD30 levels, anti-HLA antibodies and IgA-anti-Fab autoantibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirzargar, Mohammad Ali; Amirzargar, Aliakbar; Basiri, Abbas; Hajilooi, Mehrdad; Roshanaei, Ghodratollah; Rajabi, Gholamreza; Mohammadiazar, Sina; Solgi, Ghasem

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the predictive power of anti-HLA antibodies, sCD30 levels and IgA-anti-Fab autoantibody before and early after transplantation in relation to long-term kidney allograft survival. Pre- and post-transplant sera samples of 59 living-unrelated donor kidney recipients were tested for above risk factors by enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay. 15 out of 59 cases experienced rejection episodes (failure group). Pre- and post-transplant high sCD30 levels were significantly associated with graft failure (P=0.02 and P=0.004) and decreased 4 year graft survival (P = 0.009 and P = 0.001). Higher frequency of post-transplant HLA class-II antibody in the absence of class-I antibody was observed in failure group (P=0.007). Patients with post-transplant HLA class-I and class-II antibodies either alone or in combination showed significant lower 4 year graft survival. Recipients with high sCD30 levels in the presence of HLA class-I or class-II antibodies within 2 weeks post-transplant had poor graft survival (P = 0.004 and P = 0.002, respectively). High levels of post-transplant IgA-anti-Fab antibody was more frequent in functioning-graft patients (P = 0.00001), correlated with decreased serum creatinine levels (P = 0.01) and associated with improved graft survival (P = 0.008). Our findings indicate the deleterious effect of early post-transplant HLA antibodies and increased sCD30 levels dependently and protective effect of IgA-anti-Fab antibodies on long-term renal graft outcomes. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. High levels of microRNA-21 in the stroma of colorectal cancers predict short disease-free survival in stage II colon cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Boye Schnack; Jørgensen, Stine; Fog, Jacob Ulrik

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 25% of all patients with stage II colorectal cancer will experience recurrent disease and subsequently die within 5 years. MicroRNA-21 (miR-21) is upregulated in several cancer types and has been associated with survival in colon cancer. In the present study we developed a robust...... in situ hybridization assay using high-affinity Locked Nucleic Acid (LNA) probes that specifically detect miR-21 in formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue samples. The expression of miR-21 was analyzed by in situ hybridization on 130 stage II colon and 67 stage II rectal cancer specimens. The mi...... relative to the nuclear density (TBR) obtained using a red nuclear stain. High TBR (and TB) estimates of miR-21 expression correlated significantly with shorter disease-free survival (p = 0.004, HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.06-1.55) in the stage II colon cancer patient group, whereas no significant correlation...

  6. Factors Predicting Survival after Transarterial Chemoembolization of Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farina M. Hanif

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Transarterial chemoembolization is the preferred treatment for unresectable, intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. Survival after transarterial chemoembolization can be highly variable. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that predict overall survival of patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma who undergo transarterial chemoembolization as the initial therapy. Methods:We included patients who underwent transarterial chemoembolization from 2007 to 2012 in this study. Patient’s age, gender, cause of cirrhosis, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, model of end-stage liver disease score, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score, Okuda stage, alpha- fetoprotein level, site, size and number of tumors were recorded. Radiological response to transarterial chemoembolization was assessed by computerized tomography scan at 1 and 3 months after the procedure. Repeat sessions of transarterial chemoembolization were performed according to the response. We performed survival assessment and all patients were assessed for survival at the last follow-up. Results: Included in this study were 71 patients of whom there were 57 (80.3 % males, with a mean age of 51.9±12.1 years (range: 18-76 years. The mean follow-up period was 12.5±10.7 months. A total of 31 (43.7% patients had only one session of transarterial chemoembolization, 17 (23.9% underwent 2 and 11 (15.5% had 3 or more sessions. On univariate analysis, significant factors that predicted survival included serum bilirubin (P=0.02, esophageal varices (P=0.002, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (P=0.003, tumor size (P=0.005, >3 sessions of transarterial chemoembolization (P=0.006 and patient's age (P=0.001. Cox regression analysis showed that tumor size of 1 transarterial chemoembolization session (P=0.004 were associated with better survival. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that survival after transarterial chemoem- bolization is predicted by tumor size

  7. Predicting survival in oldest old people

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taekema, Diana G.; Gussekloo, J.; Westendorp, Rudi G J; De Craen, Anton J M; Maier, Andrea B.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Measures of physical performance are regarded as useful objective clinical tools to estimate survival in elderly people. However, oldest old people, aged 85 years or more, are underrepresented in earlier studies and frequently unable to perform functional tests. We studied the association

  8. Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya

    2017-01-01

    Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Machine learning models in breast cancer survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montazeri, Mitra; Montazeri, Mohadeseh; Montazeri, Mahdieh; Beigzadeh, Amin

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers with a high mortality rate among women. With the early diagnosis of breast cancer survival will increase from 56% to more than 86%. Therefore, an accurate and reliable system is necessary for the early diagnosis of this cancer. The proposed model is the combination of rules and different machine learning techniques. Machine learning models can help physicians to reduce the number of false decisions. They try to exploit patterns and relationships among a large number of cases and predict the outcome of a disease using historical cases stored in datasets. The objective of this study is to propose a rule-based classification method with machine learning techniques for the prediction of different types of Breast cancer survival. We use a dataset with eight attributes that include the records of 900 patients in which 876 patients (97.3%) and 24 (2.7%) patients were females and males respectively. Naive Bayes (NB), Trees Random Forest (TRF), 1-Nearest Neighbor (1NN), AdaBoost (AD), Support Vector Machine (SVM), RBF Network (RBFN), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) machine learning techniques with 10-cross fold technique were used with the proposed model for the prediction of breast cancer survival. The performance of machine learning techniques were evaluated with accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and area under ROC curve. Out of 900 patients, 803 patients and 97 patients were alive and dead, respectively. In this study, Trees Random Forest (TRF) technique showed better results in comparison to other techniques (NB, 1NN, AD, SVM and RBFN, MLP). The accuracy, sensitivity and the area under ROC curve of TRF are 96%, 96%, 93%, respectively. However, 1NN machine learning technique provided poor performance (accuracy 91%, sensitivity 91% and area under ROC curve 78%). This study demonstrates that Trees Random Forest model (TRF) which is a rule-based classification model was the best model with the highest level of

  10. Acylcarnitines profile best predicts survival in horses with atypical myopathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Boemer

    Full Text Available Equine atypical myopathy (AM is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased animals and found that estimation of outcome may be drawn from three acylcarnitines (C2, C10:2 and C18 -carnitines with a high sensitivity and specificity. The calculation of the prognosis of survival makes it possible to distinguish the horses that will survive from those that will die despite severe signs of acute rhabdomyolysis in both groups.

  11. Acylcarnitines profile best predicts survival in horses with atypical myopathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detilleux, Johann; Cello, Christophe; Amory, Hélène; Marcillaud-Pitel, Christel; Richard, Eric; van Galen, Gaby; van Loon, Gunther; Lefère, Laurence; Votion, Dominique-Marie

    2017-01-01

    Equine atypical myopathy (AM) is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased animals and found that estimation of outcome may be drawn from three acylcarnitines (C2, C10:2 and C18 -carnitines) with a high sensitivity and specificity. The calculation of the prognosis of survival makes it possible to distinguish the horses that will survive from those that will die despite severe signs of acute rhabdomyolysis in both groups. PMID:28846683

  12. Clinical prediction of 5-year survival in systemic sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fransen, Julie Munk; Popa-Diaconu, D; Hesselstrand, R

    2011-01-01

    Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. A simple prognostic model to predict 5-year survival in SSc was developed in 1999 in 280 patients, but it has not been validated in other patients. The predictions of a prognostic model are usually less accura...

  13. Factors predicting survival following noninvasive ventilation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peysson, S; Vandenberghe, N; Philit, F; Vial, C; Petitjean, T; Bouhour, F; Bayle, J Y; Broussolle, E

    2008-01-01

    The involvement of respiratory muscles is a major predicting factor for survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Recent studies show that noninvasive ventilation (NIV) can relieve symptoms of alveolar hypoventilation. However, factors predicting survival in ALS patients when treated with NIV need to be clarified. We conducted a retrospective study of 33 consecutive ALS patients receiving NIV. Ten patients had bulbar onset. We determined the median survivals from onset, diagnosis and initiation of NIV and factors predicting survival. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier test and Cox proportional hazard models. The median initial and maximal total uses of NIV were 10 and 14 h/24h. The overall median survival from ALS onset was 34.2 months and worsened with increasing age and bulbar onset of the disease. The median survival from initiation of NIV was 8.4 months and was significantly poorer in patients with advanced age or with airway mucus accumulation. Survival from initiation of NIV was not influenced by respiratory parameters or bulbar symptoms. Advanced age at diagnosis and airway mucus accumulation represent poorer prognostic factors of ALS patients treated with NIV. NIV is a helpful treatment of sleep-disordered breathing, including patients with bulbar involvement. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  14. Predictive model for survival in patients with gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goshayeshi, Ladan; Hoseini, Benyamin; Yousefli, Zahra; Khooie, Alireza; Etminani, Kobra; Esmaeilzadeh, Abbas; Golabpour, Amin

    2017-12-01

    Gastric cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in the world. Characterized by poor prognosis, it is a frequent cause of cancer in Iran. The aim of the study was to design a predictive model of survival time for patients suffering from gastric cancer. This was a historical cohort conducted between 2011 and 2016. Study population were 277 patients suffering from gastric cancer. Data were gathered from the Iranian Cancer Registry and the laboratory of Emam Reza Hospital in Mashhad, Iran. Patients or their relatives underwent interviews where it was needed. Missing values were imputed by data mining techniques. Fifteen factors were analyzed. Survival was addressed as a dependent variable. Then, the predictive model was designed by combining both genetic algorithm and logistic regression. Matlab 2014 software was used to combine them. Of the 277 patients, only survival of 80 patients was available whose data were used for designing the predictive model. Mean ?SD of missing values for each patient was 4.43?.41 combined predictive model achieved 72.57% accuracy. Sex, birth year, age at diagnosis time, age at diagnosis time of patients' family, family history of gastric cancer, and family history of other gastrointestinal cancers were six parameters associated with patient survival. The study revealed that imputing missing values by data mining techniques have a good accuracy. And it also revealed six parameters extracted by genetic algorithm effect on the survival of patients with gastric cancer. Our combined predictive model, with a good accuracy, is appropriate to forecast the survival of patients suffering from Gastric cancer. So, we suggest policy makers and specialists to apply it for prediction of patients' survival.

  15. Breast cancer data analysis for survivability studies and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Nagesh; Hagenbuchner, Markus; Win, Khin Than; Yang, Jack

    2018-03-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting females worldwide. Breast cancer survivability prediction is challenging and a complex research task. Existing approaches engage statistical methods or supervised machine learning to assess/predict the survival prospects of patients. The main objectives of this paper is to develop a robust data analytical model which can assist in (i) a better understanding of breast cancer survivability in presence of missing data, (ii) providing better insights into factors associated with patient survivability, and (iii) establishing cohorts of patients that share similar properties. Unsupervised data mining methods viz. the self-organising map (SOM) and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is used to create patient cohort clusters. These clusters, with associated patterns, were used to train multilayer perceptron (MLP) model for improved patient survivability analysis. A large dataset available from SEER program is used in this study to identify patterns associated with the survivability of breast cancer patients. Information gain was computed for the purpose of variable selection. All of these methods are data-driven and require little (if any) input from users or experts. SOM consolidated patients into cohorts of patients with similar properties. From this, DBSCAN identified and extracted nine cohorts (clusters). It is found that patients in each of the nine clusters have different survivability time. The separation of patients into clusters improved the overall survival prediction accuracy based on MLP and revealed intricate conditions that affect the accuracy of a prediction. A new, entirely data driven approach based on unsupervised learning methods improves understanding and helps identify patterns associated with the survivability of patient. The results of the analysis can be used to segment the historical patient data into clusters or subsets, which share common variable values and

  16. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  17. The impact of groundwater level on soil seed bank survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, RM; Oomes, MJM; Bakker, JP

    Seed longevity of plant species is an important topic in restoration management, and little is known about the effects of environmental conditions on seed survival and longevity under natural conditions. Therefore, the effect of groundwater level on the survival of seeds in the soil seed bank of a

  18. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.

  19. Combining Gene Signatures Improves Prediction of Breast Cancer Survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xi; Naume, Bjørn; Langerød, Anita; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Lingjærde, Ole Christian

    2011-01-01

    Background Several gene sets for prediction of breast cancer survival have been derived from whole-genome mRNA expression profiles. Here, we develop a statistical framework to explore whether combination of the information from such sets may improve prediction of recurrence and breast cancer specific death in early-stage breast cancers. Microarray data from two clinically similar cohorts of breast cancer patients are used as training (n = 123) and test set (n = 81), respectively. Gene sets from eleven previously published gene signatures are included in the study. Principal Findings To investigate the relationship between breast cancer survival and gene expression on a particular gene set, a Cox proportional hazards model is applied using partial likelihood regression with an L2 penalty to avoid overfitting and using cross-validation to determine the penalty weight. The fitted models are applied to an independent test set to obtain a predicted risk for each individual and each gene set. Hierarchical clustering of the test individuals on the basis of the vector of predicted risks results in two clusters with distinct clinical characteristics in terms of the distribution of molecular subtypes, ER, PR status, TP53 mutation status and histological grade category, and associated with significantly different survival probabilities (recurrence: p = 0.005; breast cancer death: p = 0.014). Finally, principal components analysis of the gene signatures is used to derive combined predictors used to fit a new Cox model. This model classifies test individuals into two risk groups with distinct survival characteristics (recurrence: p = 0.003; breast cancer death: p = 0.001). The latter classifier outperforms all the individual gene signatures, as well as Cox models based on traditional clinical parameters and the Adjuvant! Online for survival prediction. Conclusion Combining the predictive strength of multiple gene signatures improves prediction of breast

  20. Combining gene signatures improves prediction of breast cancer survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi Zhao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several gene sets for prediction of breast cancer survival have been derived from whole-genome mRNA expression profiles. Here, we develop a statistical framework to explore whether combination of the information from such sets may improve prediction of recurrence and breast cancer specific death in early-stage breast cancers. Microarray data from two clinically similar cohorts of breast cancer patients are used as training (n = 123 and test set (n = 81, respectively. Gene sets from eleven previously published gene signatures are included in the study. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To investigate the relationship between breast cancer survival and gene expression on a particular gene set, a Cox proportional hazards model is applied using partial likelihood regression with an L2 penalty to avoid overfitting and using cross-validation to determine the penalty weight. The fitted models are applied to an independent test set to obtain a predicted risk for each individual and each gene set. Hierarchical clustering of the test individuals on the basis of the vector of predicted risks results in two clusters with distinct clinical characteristics in terms of the distribution of molecular subtypes, ER, PR status, TP53 mutation status and histological grade category, and associated with significantly different survival probabilities (recurrence: p = 0.005; breast cancer death: p = 0.014. Finally, principal components analysis of the gene signatures is used to derive combined predictors used to fit a new Cox model. This model classifies test individuals into two risk groups with distinct survival characteristics (recurrence: p = 0.003; breast cancer death: p = 0.001. The latter classifier outperforms all the individual gene signatures, as well as Cox models based on traditional clinical parameters and the Adjuvant! Online for survival prediction. CONCLUSION: Combining the predictive strength of multiple gene signatures improves

  1. Can salt marshes survive sea level rise ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambroni, N.; Seminara, G.

    2008-12-01

    Stability of salt marshes is a very delicate issue depending on the subtle interplay among hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and ecology. In fact, the elevation of the marsh platform depends essentially on three effects: i) the production of soil associated with sediments resuspended by tidal currents and wind waves in the adjacent tidal flats, advected to the marsh and settling therein; ii) production of organic sediments by the salt marsh vegetation; iii) soil 'loss' driven by sea level rise and subsidence. In order to gain insight into the mechanics of the process, we consider a schematic configuration consisting of a salt marsh located at the landward end of a tidal channel connected at the upstream end with a tidal sea, under different scenarios of sea level rise. We extend the simple 1D model for the morphodynamic evolution of a tidal channel formulated by Lanzoni and Seminara (2002, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 107, C1) allowing for sediment resuspension in the channel and vegetation growth in the marsh using the depth dependent model of biomass productivity of Spartina proposed by Morris et al. (2002, Ecology, 83, pp. 2869 - 2877). We first focus on the case of a tide dominated salt marsh neglecting wind driven sediment resuspension in the shoal. Results show that the production of biomass plays a crucial role on salt marsh stability and, provided productivity is high enough, it may turn out to be sufficient to counteract the effects of sea level rise even in the absence of significant supply of mineral sediments. The additional effect of wind resuspension is then introduced. Note that the wind action is twofold: on one hand, it generates wind waves the amplitude of which is strongly dependent on shoal depth and wind fetch; on the other hand, it generates currents driven by the surface setup induced by the shear stress acting on the free surface. Here, each contribution is analysed separately. Results show that the values of bottom stress induced by

  2. Serum albumin predicts survival in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waghray, Abhijeet; Sobotka, Anastasia; Marrero, Carlos Romero; Estfan, Bassam; Aucejo, Federico; Narayanan Menon, K V

    2017-02-01

    Hilar cholangiocarcinoma is a devastating malignancy with incidence varying by geography and other risk factors. Rapid progression of disease and delays in diagnosis restrict the number of patients eligible for curative therapy. The objective of this study was to determine prognostic factors of overall survival in all patients presenting with hilar cholangiocarcinoma. All adult patients with histologically confirmed hilar cholangiocarcinoma from 2003 to 2013 were evaluated for predictors of survival using demographic factors, laboratory data, symptoms and radiological characteristics at presentation. A total of 116 patients were identified to have pathological diagnosis of hilar cholangiocarcinoma and were included in the analysis. Patients with a serum albumin level >3.0 g/dL (P 3.0 g/dL was identified as an independent predictor of overall survival (hazard ratio 0.31; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.70) with a survival benefit of 44 weeks. This study was the largest analysis to date of prognostic factors in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma. A serum albumin level >3.0 g/dL conferred an independent survival advantage with a significantly greater length of survival. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press and Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University.

  3. Camouflage predicts survival in ground-nesting birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troscianko, Jolyon; Wilson-Aggarwal, Jared; Stevens, Martin; Spottiswoode, Claire N

    2016-01-29

    Evading detection by predators is crucial for survival. Camouflage is therefore a widespread adaptation, but despite substantial research effort our understanding of different camouflage strategies has relied predominantly on artificial systems and on experiments disregarding how camouflage is perceived by predators. Here we show for the first time in a natural system, that survival probability of wild animals is directly related to their level of camouflage as perceived by the visual systems of their main predators. Ground-nesting plovers and coursers flee as threats approach, and their clutches were more likely to survive when their egg contrast matched their surrounds. In nightjars - which remain motionless as threats approach - clutch survival depended on plumage pattern matching between the incubating bird and its surrounds. Our findings highlight the importance of pattern and luminance based camouflage properties, and the effectiveness of modern techniques in capturing the adaptive properties of visual phenotypes.

  4. Failure to Achieve a PSA Level ≤1 ng/mL After Neoadjuvant LHRHA Therapy Predicts for Lower Biochemical Control Rate and Overall Survival in Localized Prostate Cancer Treated With Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, Darren M.; McAleese, Jonathan; Park, Richard M.; Stewart, David P.; Stranex, Stephen; Eakin, Ruth L.; Houston, Russell F.; O'Sullivan, Joe M.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether failure to suppress the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to ≤1 ng/mL after ≥2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy in patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate carcinoma is associated with reduced biochemical failure-free survival. Methods and Materials: A retrospective case note review of consecutive patients with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer treated between January 2001 and December 2002 with neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy, followed by concurrent hormonal therapy and radiotherapy was performed. Patient data were divided for analysis according to whether the PSA level in Week 1 of radiotherapy was ≤1.0 ng/mL. Biochemical failure was determined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (Phoenix) definition. Results: A total of 119 patients were identified. The PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy was ≤1 ng/mL in 67 patients and >1 ng/mL in 52. At a median follow-up of 49 months, the 4-year actuarial biochemical failure-free survival rate was 84% vs. 60% (p = 0.0016) in favor of the patients with a PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy of ≤1 ng/mL. The overall survival rate was 94% vs. 77.5% (p = 0.0045), and the disease-specific survival rate at 4 years was 98.5% vs. 82.5%. Conclusions: The results of our study have shown that patients with a PSA level >1 ng/mL at the beginning of external beam radiotherapy after ≥2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy have a significantly greater rate of biochemical failure and lower survival rate compared with those with a PSA level of ≤1 ng/mL. Patients without adequate PSA suppression should be considered a higher risk group and considered for dose escalation or the use of novel treatments

  5. Prediction of 90Y Radioembolization Outcome from Pretherapeutic Factors with Random Survival Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrisch, Michael; Schöppe, Franziska; Paprottka, Karolin; Fabritius, Matthias; Strobl, Frederik F; De Toni, Enrico N; Ilhan, Harun; Todica, Andrei; Michl, Marlies; Paprottka, Philipp Marius

    2018-05-01

    Our objective was to predict the outcome of 90 Y radioembolization in patients with intrahepatic tumors from pretherapeutic baseline parameters and to identify predictive variables using a machine-learning approach based on random survival forests. Methods: In this retrospective study, 366 patients with primary ( n = 92) or secondary ( n = 274) liver tumors who had received 90 Y radioembolization were analyzed. A random survival forest was trained to predict individual risk from baseline values of cholinesterase, bilirubin, type of primary tumor, age at radioembolization, hepatic tumor burden, presence of extrahepatic disease, and sex. The predictive importance of each baseline parameter was determined using the minimal-depth concept, and the partial dependency of predicted risk on the continuous variables bilirubin level and cholinesterase level was determined. Results: Median overall survival was 11.4 mo (95% confidence interval, 9.7-14.2 mo), with 228 deaths occurring during the observation period. The random-survival-forest analysis identified baseline cholinesterase and bilirubin as the most important variables (forest-averaged lowest minimal depth, 1.2 and 1.5, respectively), followed by the type of primary tumor (1.7), age (2.4), tumor burden (2.8), and presence of extrahepatic disease (3.5). Sex had the highest forest-averaged minimal depth (5.5), indicating little predictive value. Baseline bilirubin levels above 1.5 mg/dL were associated with a steep increase in predicted mortality. Similarly, cholinesterase levels below 7.5 U predicted a strong increase in mortality. The trained random survival forest achieved a concordance index of 0.657, with an SE of 0.02, comparable to the concordance index of 0.652 and SE of 0.02 for a previously published Cox proportional hazards model. Conclusion: Random survival forests are a simple and straightforward machine-learning approach for prediction of overall survival. The predictive performance of the trained model

  6. Predicting functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Mei-Lyn; Tan, Pei Fang; Holbrook, Joanna D

    2017-01-01

    Better predictors of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease course could enable smaller and more targeted clinical trials. Partially to address this aim, the Prize for Life foundation collected de-identified records from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis sufferers who participated in clinical trials of investigational drugs and made them available to researchers in the PRO-ACT database. In this study, time series data from PRO-ACT subjects were fitted to exponential models. Binary classes for decline in the total score of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) (fast/slow progression) and survival (high/low death risk) were derived. Data was segregated into training and test sets via cross validation. Learning algorithms were applied to the demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters in the training set to predict ALSFRS-R decline and the derived fast/slow progression and high/low death risk categories. The performance of predictive models was assessed by cross-validation in the test set using Receiver Operator Curves and root mean squared errors. A model created using a boosting algorithm containing the decline in four parameters (weight, alkaline phosphatase, albumin and creatine kinase) post baseline, was able to predict functional decline class (fast or slow) with fair accuracy (AUC = 0.82). However similar approaches to build a predictive model for decline class by baseline subject characteristics were not successful. In contrast, baseline values of total bilirubin, gamma glutamyltransferase, urine specific gravity and ALSFRS-R item score-climbing stairs were sufficient to predict survival class. Using combinations of small numbers of variables it was possible to predict classes of functional decline and survival across the 1-2 year timeframe available in PRO-ACT. These findings may have utility for design of future ALS clinical trials.

  7. Survival prediction model for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhihui; He, Shasha; Fan, Xiaotang; He, Fangping; Sang, Wei; Bao, Yongxing; Ren, Weixin; Zhao, Jinming; Ji, Xuewen; Wen, Hao

    2017-09-01

    This study is to establish a predictive index (PI) model of 5-year survival rate for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection and to evaluate its prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Patients underwent HCC surgical resection were enrolled and randomly divided into prediction model group (101 patients) and model evaluation group (100 patients). Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. A PI model was established based on multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn accordingly. The area under ROC (AUROC) and PI cutoff value was identified.Multiple Cox regression analysis of prediction model group showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, histological grade, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, number of tumor, and postoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization treatment were the independent predictors for the 5-year survival rate for HCC patients. The model was PI = 0.377 × NLR + 0.554 × HG + 0.927 × PRM + 0.778 × MVI + 0.740 × NT - 0.831 × transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). In the prediction model group, AUROC was 0.832 and the PI cutoff value was 3.38. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.0%, 80%, and 79.2%, respectively. In model evaluation group, AUROC was 0.822, and the PI cutoff value was well corresponded to the prediction model group with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.0%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively.The PI model can quantify the mortality risk of hepatitis B related HCC with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

  8. Predicting the Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients Using

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korhani Kangi, Azam; Bahrampour, Abbas

    2018-02-26

    Introduction and purpose: In recent years the use of neural networks without any premises for investigation of prognosis in analyzing survival data has increased. Artificial neural networks (ANN) use small processors with a continuous network to solve problems inspired by the human brain. Bayesian neural networks (BNN) constitute a neural-based approach to modeling and non-linearization of complex issues using special algorithms and statistical methods. Gastric cancer incidence is the first and third ranking for men and women in Iran, respectively. The aim of the present study was to assess the value of an artificial neural network and a Bayesian neural network for modeling and predicting of probability of gastric cancer patient death. Materials and Methods: In this study, we used information on 339 patients aged from 20 to 90 years old with positive gastric cancer, referred to Afzalipoor and Shahid Bahonar Hospitals in Kerman City from 2001 to 2015. The three layers perceptron neural network (ANN) and the Bayesian neural network (BNN) were used for predicting the probability of mortality using the available data. To investigate differences between the models, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were generated. Results: In this study, the sensitivity and specificity of the artificial neural network and Bayesian neural network models were 0.882, 0.903 and 0.954, 0.909, respectively. Prediction accuracy and the area under curve ROC for the two models were 0.891, 0.944 and 0.935, 0.961. The age at diagnosis of gastric cancer was most important for predicting survival, followed by tumor grade, morphology, gender, smoking history, opium consumption, receiving chemotherapy, presence of metastasis, tumor stage, receiving radiotherapy, and being resident in a village. Conclusion: The findings of the present study indicated that the Bayesian neural network is preferable to an artificial neural network for

  9. Landscape‐level patterns in fawn survival across North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingery, Tess M.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Wallingford, Bret D.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.

    2018-01-01

    A landscape‐level meta‐analysis approach to examining early survival of ungulates may elucidate patterns in survival not evident from individual studies. Despite numerous efforts, the relationship between fawn survival and habitat characteristics remains unclear and there has been no attempt to examine trends in survival across landscape types with adequate replication. In 2015–2016, we radiomarked 98 white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns in 2 study areas in Pennsylvania. By using a meta‐analysis approach, we compared fawn survival estimates from across North America using published data from 29 populations in 16 states to identify patterns in survival and cause‐specific mortality related to landscape characteristics, predator communities, and deer population density. We modeled fawn survival relative to percentage of agricultural land cover and deer density. Estimated average survival to 3–6 months of age was 0.414 ± 0.062 (SE) in contiguous forest landscapes (no agriculture) and for every 10% increase in land area in agriculture, fawn survival increased 0.049 ± 0.014. We classified cause‐specific mortality as human‐caused, natural (excluding predation), and predation according to agriculturally dominated, forested, and mixed (i.e., both agricultural and forest cover) landscapes. Predation was the greatest source of mortality in all landscapes. Landscapes with mixed forest and agricultural cover had greater proportions and rates of human‐caused mortalities, and lower proportions and rates of mortality due to predators, when compared to forested landscapes. Proportion and rate of natural deaths did not differ among landscapes. We failed to detect any relationship between fawn survival and deer density. The results highlight the need to consider multiple spatial scales when accounting for factors that influence fawn survival. Furthermore, variation in mortality sources and rates among landscapes indicate the potential for

  10. Nomogram including pretherapeutic parameters for prediction of survival after SIRT of hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fendler, Wolfgang Peter; Ilhan, Harun; Paprottka, Philipp M.; Jakobs, Tobias F.; Heinemann, Volker; Bartenstein, Peter; Haug, Alexander R.; Khalaf, Feras; Ezziddin, Samer; Hacker, Marcus

    2015-01-01

    Pre-therapeutic prediction of outcome is important for clinicians and patients in determining whether selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is indicated for hepatic metastases of colorectal cancer (CRC). Pre-therapeutic characteristics of 100 patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) treated by radioembolization were analyzed to develop a nomogram for predicting survival. Prognostic factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequent tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The nomogram was validated with reference to an external patient cohort (n = 25) from the Bonn University Department of Nuclear Medicine. Of the 13 parameters tested, four were independently associated with reduced patient survival in multivariate analysis. These parameters included no liver surgery before SIRT (HR:1.81, p = 0.014), CEA serum level ≥ 150 ng/ml (HR:2.08, p = 0.001), transaminase toxicity level ≥2.5 x upper limit of normal (HR:2.82, p = 0.001), and summed computed tomography (CT) size of the largest two liver lesions ≥10 cm (HR:2.31, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for our prediction model was 0.83 for the external patient cohort, indicating superior performance of our multivariate model compared to a model ignoring covariates. The nomogram developed in our study entailing four pre-therapeutic parameters gives good prediction of patient survival post SIRT. (orig.)

  11. Nomogram including pretherapeutic parameters for prediction of survival after SIRT of hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fendler, Wolfgang Peter [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Nuklearmedizin, Munich (Germany); Ilhan, Harun [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Paprottka, Philipp M. [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Jakobs, Tobias F. [Hospital Barmherzige Brueder, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Munich (Germany); Heinemann, Volker [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Internal Medicine III, Munich (Germany); Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Munich (Germany); Bartenstein, Peter; Haug, Alexander R. [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Munich (Germany); Khalaf, Feras [University Hospital Bonn, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Bonn (Germany); Ezziddin, Samer [Saarland University Medical Center, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Homburg (Germany); Hacker, Marcus [Vienna General Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Vienna (Austria)

    2015-09-15

    Pre-therapeutic prediction of outcome is important for clinicians and patients in determining whether selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is indicated for hepatic metastases of colorectal cancer (CRC). Pre-therapeutic characteristics of 100 patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) treated by radioembolization were analyzed to develop a nomogram for predicting survival. Prognostic factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequent tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The nomogram was validated with reference to an external patient cohort (n = 25) from the Bonn University Department of Nuclear Medicine. Of the 13 parameters tested, four were independently associated with reduced patient survival in multivariate analysis. These parameters included no liver surgery before SIRT (HR:1.81, p = 0.014), CEA serum level ≥ 150 ng/ml (HR:2.08, p = 0.001), transaminase toxicity level ≥2.5 x upper limit of normal (HR:2.82, p = 0.001), and summed computed tomography (CT) size of the largest two liver lesions ≥10 cm (HR:2.31, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for our prediction model was 0.83 for the external patient cohort, indicating superior performance of our multivariate model compared to a model ignoring covariates. The nomogram developed in our study entailing four pre-therapeutic parameters gives good prediction of patient survival post SIRT. (orig.)

  12. Early social networks predict survival in wild bottlenose dolphins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret A Stanton

    Full Text Available A fundamental question concerning group-living species is what factors influence the evolution of sociality. Although several studies link adult social bonds to fitness, social patterns and relationships are often formed early in life and are also likely to have fitness consequences, particularly in species with lengthy developmental periods, extensive social learning, and early social bond-formation. In a longitudinal study of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp., calf social network structure, specifically the metric eigenvector centrality, predicted juvenile survival in males. Additionally, male calves that died post-weaning had stronger ties to juvenile males than surviving male calves, suggesting that juvenile males impose fitness costs on their younger counterparts. Our study indicates that selection is acting on social traits early in life and highlights the need to examine the costs and benefits of social bonds during formative life history stages.

  13. A clinical tool for predicting survival in ALS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knibb, Jonathan A; Keren, Noa; Kulka, Anna; Leigh, P Nigel; Martin, Sarah; Shaw, Christopher E; Tsuda, Miho; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

    2016-12-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and usually fatal neurodegenerative disease. Survival from diagnosis varies considerably. Several prognostic factors are known, including site of onset (bulbar or limb), age at symptom onset, delay from onset to diagnosis and the use of riluzole and non-invasive ventilation (NIV). Clinicians and patients would benefit from a practical way of using these factors to provide an individualised prognosis. 575 consecutive patients with incident ALS from a population-based registry in South-East England register for ALS (SEALS) were studied. Their survival was modelled as a two-step process: the time from diagnosis to respiratory muscle involvement, followed by the time from respiratory involvement to death. The effects of predictor variables were assessed separately for each time interval. Younger age at symptom onset, longer delay from onset to diagnosis and riluzole use were associated with slower progression to respiratory involvement, and NIV use was associated with lower mortality after respiratory involvement, each with a clinically significant effect size. Riluzole may have a greater effect in younger patients and those with longer delay to diagnosis. A patient's survival time has a roughly 50% chance of falling between half and twice the predicted median. A simple and clinically applicable graphical method of predicting an individual patient's survival from diagnosis is presented. The model should be validated in an independent cohort, and extended to include other important prognostic factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  14. Predicting and Modelling of Survival Data when Cox's Regression Model does not hold

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  15. Spinal cord multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for survival prediction in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querin, G; El Mendili, M M; Lenglet, T; Delphine, S; Marchand-Pauvert, V; Benali, H; Pradat, P-F

    2017-08-01

    Assessing survival is a critical issue in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Neuroimaging seems to be promising in the assessment of disease severity and several studies also suggest a strong relationship between spinal cord (SC) atrophy described by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and disease progression. The aim of the study was to determine the predictive added value of multimodal SC MRI on survival. Forty-nine ALS patients were recruited and clinical data were collected. Patients were scored on the Revised ALS Functional Rating Scale and manual muscle testing. They were followed longitudinally to assess survival. The cervical SC was imaged using the 3 T MRI system. Cord volume and cross-sectional area (CSA) at each vertebral level were computed. Diffusion tensor imaging metrics were measured. Imaging metrics and clinical variables were used as inputs for a multivariate Cox regression survival model. On building a multivariate Cox regression model with clinical and MRI parameters, fractional anisotropy, magnetization transfer ratio and CSA at C2-C3, C4-C5, C5-C6 and C6-C7 vertebral levels were significant. Moreover, the hazard ratio calculated for CSA at the C3-C4 and C5-C6 levels indicated an increased risk for patients with SC atrophy (respectively 0.66 and 0.68). In our cohort, MRI parameters seem to be more predictive than clinical variables, which had a hazard ratio very close to 1. It is suggested that multimodal SC MRI could be a useful tool in survival prediction especially if used at the beginning of the disease and when combined with clinical variables. To validate it as a biomarker, confirmation of the results in bigger independent cohorts of patients is warranted. © 2017 EAN.

  16. Development of a Summarized Health Index (SHI for use in predicting survival in sea turtles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Hsien Li

    Full Text Available Veterinary care plays an influential role in sea turtle rehabilitation, especially in endangered species. Physiological characteristics, hematological and plasma biochemistry profiles, are useful references for clinical management in animals, especially when animals are during the convalescence period. In this study, these factors associated with sea turtle surviving were analyzed. The blood samples were collected when sea turtles remained alive, and then animals were followed up for surviving status. The results indicated that significantly negative correlation was found between buoyancy disorders (BD and sea turtle surviving (p < 0.05. Furthermore, non-surviving sea turtles had significantly higher levels of aspartate aminotranspherase (AST, creatinine kinase (CK, creatinine and uric acid (UA than surviving sea turtles (all p < 0.05. After further analysis by multiple logistic regression model, only factors of BD, creatinine and UA were included in the equation for calculating summarized health index (SHI for each individual. Through evaluation by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve, the result indicated that the area under curve was 0.920 ± 0.037, and a cut-off SHI value of 2.5244 showed 80.0% sensitivity and 86.7% specificity in predicting survival. Therefore, the developed SHI could be a useful index to evaluate health status of sea turtles and to improve veterinary care at rehabilitation facilities.

  17. Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Research Matters NIH Research Matters February 3, 2014 Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression Among people ... sclerosis (MS), those with higher blood levels of vitamin D had better outcomes during 5 years of ...

  18. Prediction of survival in patients with Stage IV kidney cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Mirilenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency of treatment was evaluated and the predictors of adjusted survival (AS were identified in patients with disseminated kidney cancer treated at the Republican Research and Practical Center for Oncology and Medical Radiology in 1999 to 2011 (A.E. Okeanov, P.I. Moiseev, L.F. Levin. Malignant tumors in Belarus, 2001–2012. Edited by O.G. Sukonko. Seven factors (regional lymph node metastases; distant bone metastases; a high-grade tumor; sarcomatous tumor differentiation; hemoglobin levels of < 125 g/l in women and < 150 g/l in men; an erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 40 mm/h; palliative surgery were found to have an independent, unfavorable impact on AS. A multidimensional model was built to define what risk group low (no more than 2 poor factors, moderate (3–4 poor factors, and high (more than 4 poor factors the patients with Stage IV kidney cancer belonged to. In these groups, the median survival was 34.7, 17.2, and 4.0 months and 3-year AS rates were 48.6, 24.6, and 3.2 %, respectively. 

  19. Antioxidant defenses predict long-term survival in a passerine bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal and pathological processes entail the production of oxidative substances that can damage biological molecules and harm physiological functions. Organisms have evolved complex mechanisms of antioxidant defense, and any imbalance between oxidative challenge and antioxidant protection can depress fitness components and accelerate senescence. While the role of oxidative stress in pathogenesis and aging has been studied intensively in humans and model animal species under laboratory conditions, there is a dearth of knowledge on its role in shaping life-histories of animals under natural selection regimes. Yet, given the pervasive nature and likely fitness consequences of oxidative damage, it can be expected that the need to secure efficient antioxidant protection is powerful in molding the evolutionary ecology of animals. Here, we test whether overall antioxidant defense varies with age and predicts long-term survival, using a wild population of a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, as a model.Plasma antioxidant capacity (AOC of breeding individuals was measured using standard protocols and annual survival was monitored over five years (2006-2010 on a large sample of selection episodes. AOC did not covary with age in longitudinal analyses after discounting the effect of selection. AOC positively predicted annual survival independently of sex. Individuals were highly consistent in their relative levels of AOC, implying the existence of additive genetic variance and/or environmental (including early maternal components consistently acting through their lives.Using longitudinal data we showed that high levels of antioxidant protection positively predict long-term survival in a wild animal population. Present results are therefore novel in disclosing a role for antioxidant protection in determining survival under natural conditions, strongly demanding for more longitudinal eco-physiological studies of life-histories in

  20. Tumor RNA disruption predicts survival benefit from breast cancer chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parissenti, Amadeo M; Guo, Baoqing; Pritzker, Laura B; Pritzker, Kenneth P H; Wang, Xiaohui; Zhu, Mu; Shepherd, Lois E; Trudeau, Maureen E

    2015-08-01

    In a prior substudy of the CAN-NCIC-MA.22 clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00066443), we observed that neoadjuvant chemotherapy reduced tumor RNA integrity in breast cancer patients, a phenomenon we term "RNA disruption." The purpose of the current study was to assess in the full patient cohort the relationship between mid-treatment tumor RNA disruption and both pCR post-treatment and, subsequently, disease-free survival (DFS) up to 108 months post-treatment. To meet these objectives, we developed the RNA disruption assay (RDA) to quantify RNA disruption and stratify it into 3 response zones of clinical importance. Zone 1 is a level of RNA disruption inadequate for pathologic complete response (pCR); Zone 2 is an intermediate level, while Zone 3 has high RNA disruption. The same RNA disruption cut points developed for pCR response were then utilized for DFS. Tumor RDA identified >fourfold more chemotherapy non-responders than did clinical response by calipers. pCR responders were clustered in RDA Zone 3, irrespective of tumor subtype. DFS was about 2-fold greater for patients with tumors in Zone 3 compared to Zone 1 patients. Kaplan-Meier survival curves corroborated these findings that high tumor RNA disruption was associated with increased DFS. DFS values for patients in zone 3 that did not achieve a pCR were similar to that of pCR recipients across tumor subtypes, including patients with hormone receptor positive tumors that seldom achieve a pCR. RDA appears superior to pCR as a chemotherapy response biomarker, supporting the prospect of its use in response-guided chemotherapy.

  1. Serum microRNA-122 predicts survival in patients with liver cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Waidmann

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality. MicroRNAs (miRs circulating in the blood are an emerging new class of biomarkers. In particular, the serum level of the liver-specific miR-122 might be a clinically useful new parameter in patients with acute or chronic liver disease. AIM: Here we investigated if the serum level of miR-122 might be a prognostic parameter in patients with liver cirrhosis. METHODS: 107 patients with liver cirrhosis in the test cohort and 143 patients in the validation cohort were prospectively enrolled into the present study. RNA was extracted from the sera obtained at the time of study enrollment and the level of miR-122 was assessed. Serum miR-122 levels were assessed by quantitative reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR and were compared to overall survival time and to different complications of liver cirrhosis. RESULTS: Serum miR-122 levels were reduced in patients with hepatic decompensation in comparison to patients with compensated liver disease. Patients with ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatorenal syndrome had significantly lower miR-122 levels than patients without these complications. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the miR-122 serum levels were associated with survival independently from the MELD score, sex and age. CONCLUSIONS: Serum miR-122 is a new independent marker for prediction of survival of patients with liver cirrhosis.

  2. A hemocyte gene expression signature correlated with predictive capacity of oysters to survive Vibrio infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Rafael

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The complex balance between environmental and host factors is an important determinant of susceptibility to infection. Disturbances of this equilibrium may result in multifactorial diseases as illustrated by the summer mortality syndrome, a worldwide and complex phenomenon that affects the oysters, Crassostrea gigas. The summer mortality syndrome reveals a physiological intolerance making this oyster species susceptible to diseases. Exploration of genetic basis governing the oyster resistance or susceptibility to infections is thus a major goal for understanding field mortality events. In this context, we used high-throughput genomic approaches to identify genetic traits that may characterize inherent survival capacities in C. gigas. Results Using digital gene expression (DGE, we analyzed the transcriptomes of hemocytes (immunocompetent cells of oysters able or not able to survive infections by Vibrio species shown to be involved in summer mortalities. Hemocytes were nonlethally collected from oysters before Vibrio experimental infection, and two DGE libraries were generated from individuals that survived or did not survive. Exploration of DGE data and microfluidic qPCR analyses at individual level showed an extraordinary polymorphism in gene expressions, but also a set of hemocyte-expressed genes whose basal mRNA levels discriminate oyster capacity to survive infections by the pathogenic V. splendidus LGP32. Finally, we identified a signature of 14 genes that predicted oyster survival capacity. Their expressions are likely driven by distinct transcriptional regulation processes associated or not associated to gene copy number variation (CNV. Conclusions We provide here for the first time in oyster a gene expression survival signature that represents a useful tool for understanding mortality events and for assessing genetic traits of interest for disease resistance selection programs.

  3. Intratumoral heterogeneity of 18F-FDG uptake predicts survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Seung Hyup; Kim, Ho Seong; Lee, Kyung-Han; Kim, Byung-Tae; Choi, Joon Young; Choi, Seong Ho; Choi, Dong Wook; Lee, Jong Kyun; Lee, Kwang Hyuck; Park, Joon Oh

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether intratumoral heterogeneity measured by 18 F-FDG PET texture analysis has potential as a prognostic imaging biomarker in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We evaluated a cohort of 137 patients with newly diagnosed PDAC who underwent pretreatment 18 F-FDG PET/CT from January 2008 to December 2010. First-order (histogram indices) and higher-order (grey-level run length, difference, size zone matrices) textural features of primary tumours were extracted by PET texture analysis. Conventional PET parameters including metabolic tumour volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and standardized uptake value (SUV) were also measured. To assess and compare the predictive performance of imaging biomarkers, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for censored survival data and areas under the ROC curve (AUC) at 2 years after diagnosis were used. Associations between imaging biomarkers and overall survival were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The best imaging biomarker for overall survival prediction was first-order entropy (AUC = 0.720), followed by TLG (AUC = 0.697), MTV (AUC = 0.692), and maximum SUV (AUC = 0.625). After adjusting for age, sex, clinical stage, tumour size and serum CA19-9 level, multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that higher entropy (hazard ratio, HR, 5.59; P = 0.028) was independently associated with worse survival, whereas TLG (HR 0.98; P = 0.875) was not an independent prognostic factor. Intratumoral heterogeneity of 18 F-FDG uptake measured by PET texture analysis is an independent predictor of survival along with tumour stage and serum CA19-9 level in patients with PDAC. In addition, first-order entropy as a measure of intratumoral metabolic heterogeneity is a better quantitative imaging biomarker of prognosis than conventional PET parameters. (orig.)

  4. ROCK I Has More Accurate Prognostic Value than MET in Predicting Patient Survival in Colorectal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian; Bharadwaj, Shruthi S; Guzman, Grace; Vishnubhotla, Ramana; Glover, Sarah C

    2015-06-01

    Colorectal cancer remains the second leading cause of death in the United States despite improvements in incidence rates and advancements in screening. The present study evaluated the prognostic value of two tumor markers, MET and ROCK I, which have been noted in other cancers to provide more accurate prognoses of patient outcomes than tumor staging alone. We constructed a tissue microarray from surgical specimens of adenocarcinomas from 108 colorectal cancer patients. Using immunohistochemistry, we examined the expression levels of tumor markers MET and ROCK I, with a pathologist blinded to patient identities and clinical outcomes providing the scoring of MET and ROCK I expression. We then used retrospective analysis of patients' survival data to provide correlations with expression levels of MET and ROCK I. Both MET and ROCK I were significantly over-expressed in colorectal cancer tissues, relative to the unaffected adjacent mucosa. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that patients' 5-year survival was inversely correlated with levels of expression of ROCK I. In contrast, MET was less strongly correlated with five-year survival. ROCK I provides better efficacy in predicting patient outcomes, compared to either tumor staging or MET expression. As a result, ROCK I may provide a less invasive method of assessing patient prognoses and directing therapeutic interventions. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  5. A predictive model for survival in metastatic cancer patients attending an outpatient palliative radiotherapy clinic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chow, Edward; Fung, KinWah; Panzarella, Tony; Bezjak, Andrea; Danjoux, Cyril; Tannock, Ian

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a predictive model for survival from the time of presentation in an outpatient palliative radiotherapy clinic. Methods and Materials: Sixteen factors were analyzed prospectively in 395 patients seen in a dedicated palliative radiotherapy clinic in a large tertiary cancer center using Cox's proportional hazards regression model. Results: Six prognostic factors had a statistically significant impact on survival, as follows: primary cancer site, site of metastases, Karnofsky performance score (KPS), and fatigue, appetite, and shortness of breath scores from the modified Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale. Risk group stratification was performed (1) by assigning weights to the prognostic factors based on their levels of significance, and (2) by the number of risk factors present. The weighting method provided a Survival Prediction Score (SPS), ranging from 0 to 32. The survival probability at 3, 6, and 12 months was 83%, 70%, and 51%, respectively, for patients with SPS ≤13 (n=133); 67%, 41%, and 20% for patients with SPS 14-19 (n=129); and 36%, 18%, and 4% for patients with SPS ≥20 (n=133) (p<0.0001). Corresponding survival probabilities based on number of risk factors were as follows: 85%, 72%, and 52% (≤3 risk factors) (n=98); 68%, 47%, and 24% (4 risk factors) (n=117); and 46%, 24%, and 11% (≥5 factors) (n=180) (p<0.0001). Conclusion: Clinical prognostic factors can be used to predict prognosis among patients attending a palliative radiotherapy clinic. If validated in an independent series of patients, the model can be used to guide clinical decisions, plan supportive services, and allocate resource use

  6. The Value of Serum NR2 Antibody in Prediction of Post-Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Bidari

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor subunits antibody (NR2-ab is a sensitive marker of ischemic brain damage in clinical circumstances, such as cerebrovascular accidents. We aimed to assess the value of serum NR2-ab in predicting the post-cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR survival. Methods: In this cohort study, we examined serum NR2-ab levels 1 hour after the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC in 49 successfully resuscitated patients. Patients with traumatic or asphyxic arrests, prior neurological insults, or major medical illnesses were excluded. Participants were followed until death or hospital discharge. Demographic data, coronary artery disease risk factors, time before initiation of CPR, and CPR duration were documented.  In addition, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, blood pressure, and survival status of patients were recorded at 1, 6, 24, and 72 hour(s after ROSC. Descriptive analyses were performed, and the Cox proportional hazard model was applied to assess if NR2-ab level is an independent predictive factor of survival. Results: 49 successfully resuscitated patients were evaluated; 27 (55% survived to hospital discharge, 4 (8.1% were in vegetative state, 10 (20.4% were physically disabled, and 13 (26.5% were physically functional. Within 72 hours of ROSC all of the 12 NR2-ab positive patients died. In contrast, 31 (84% of the NR2-ab negative patients survived. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of NR2-ab in prediction of survival were 54.5% (95%CI=32.7%-74.9%, 100% (95%CI=84.5%-100%, infinite, and 45.5% (95%CI=28.8%-71.8%, respectively. Subsequent analysis showed that both NR2-ab status and GCS were independent risk factors of death. Conclusions: A positive NR2-ab serum test 1 hour after ROSC correlated with lower 72-hour survival. Further studies are required to validate this finding and demonstrate the value of a quantitative NR2-ab assay and its optimal time of measurement.

  7. Improved survival prediction from lung function data in a large population sample

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, M.R.; Pedersen, O.F.; Lange, P.

    2008-01-01

    Studies relating tung function to survival commonly express lung function impairment as a percent of predicted but this retains age, height and sex bias. We have studied alternative methods of expressing forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) for predicting all cause and airway related lung disease.......1 respectively. Cut levels of lung function were used to categorise impairment and the HR for multivariate prediction of all cause and airway related lung disease mortality were 10 and 2044 respectively for the worst category of FEV1/ht(2) compared to 5 and 194 respectively for the worst category of FEV1PP....... In univariate predictions of all cause mortality the HR for FEV1/ht(2) categories was 2-4 times higher than those for FEV1PP and 3-10 times higher for airway related tung disease mortality. We conclude that FEV1/ht(2) is superior to FEV1PP for predicting survival. in a general population and this method...

  8. PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wishart, Gordon C; Azzato, Elizabeth M; Greenberg, David C; Rashbass, Jem; Kearins, Olive; Lawrence, Gill; Caldas, Carlos; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.

  9. Preirradiation PSA predicts biochemical disease-free survival in patients treated with postprostatectomy external beam irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crane, Christopher H.; Rich, Tyvin A.; Read, Paul W.; Sanfilippo, Nicholas J.; Gillenwater, Jay Y.; Kelly, Maria D.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the clinical outcome and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response and to determine prognostic factors for biochemical disease-free survival in patients treated with external beam radiotherapy following radical prostatectomy without hormonal therapy. Methods and Materials: Forty-eight patients were treated after prostatectomy with radiotherapy between March, 1988 and December, 1993. Seven patients had undetectable PSA ( 2.7. Five-year actuarial biochemical disease-free survival values were 71, 48, and 0%, respectively, for the three groups. Biochemical disease-free survival was not affected by preoperative PSA level, clinical stage, Gleason's score, pathologic stage, surgical margins, presence of undetectable PSA after surgery, surgery to radiation interval, total dose, or presence of clinically suspicious local disease. Based on digital rectal exam, there were no local failures. Conclusion: Biochemical disease-free survival after postprostatectomy radiation is predicted by the PSA at the time of irradiation. Clinical local control is excellent, but distant failure remains a significant problem in this population. The addition of concomitant systemic therapy should be investigated in patients with PSA >2.7

  10. Preliminary study of tumor heterogeneity in imaging predicts two year survival in pancreatic cancer patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayasree Chakraborty

    Full Text Available Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC is one of the most lethal cancers in the United States with a five-year survival rate of 7.2% for all stages. Although surgical resection is the only curative treatment, currently we are unable to differentiate between resectable patients with occult metastatic disease from those with potentially curable disease. Identification of patients with poor prognosis via early classification would help in initial management including the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiation, or in the choice of postoperative adjuvant therapy. PDAC ranges in appearance from homogeneously isoattenuating masses to heterogeneously hypovascular tumors on CT images; hence, we hypothesize that heterogeneity reflects underlying differences at the histologic or genetic level and will therefore correlate with patient outcome. We quantify heterogeneity of PDAC with texture analysis to predict 2-year survival. Using fuzzy minimum-redundancy maximum-relevance feature selection and a naive Bayes classifier, the proposed features achieve an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.90 and accuracy (Ac of 82.86% with the leave-one-image-out technique and an AUC of 0.80 and Ac of 75.0% with three-fold cross-validation. We conclude that texture analysis can be used to quantify heterogeneity in CT images to accurately predict 2-year survival in patients with pancreatic cancer. From these data, we infer differences in the biological evolution of pancreatic cancer subtypes measurable in imaging and identify opportunities for optimized patient selection for therapy.

  11. Preliminary study of tumor heterogeneity in imaging predicts two year survival in pancreatic cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Jayasree; Langdon-Embry, Liana; Cunanan, Kristen M; Escalon, Joanna G; Allen, Peter J; Lowery, Maeve A; O'Reilly, Eileen M; Gönen, Mithat; Do, Richard G; Simpson, Amber L

    2017-01-01

    Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal cancers in the United States with a five-year survival rate of 7.2% for all stages. Although surgical resection is the only curative treatment, currently we are unable to differentiate between resectable patients with occult metastatic disease from those with potentially curable disease. Identification of patients with poor prognosis via early classification would help in initial management including the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiation, or in the choice of postoperative adjuvant therapy. PDAC ranges in appearance from homogeneously isoattenuating masses to heterogeneously hypovascular tumors on CT images; hence, we hypothesize that heterogeneity reflects underlying differences at the histologic or genetic level and will therefore correlate with patient outcome. We quantify heterogeneity of PDAC with texture analysis to predict 2-year survival. Using fuzzy minimum-redundancy maximum-relevance feature selection and a naive Bayes classifier, the proposed features achieve an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.90 and accuracy (Ac) of 82.86% with the leave-one-image-out technique and an AUC of 0.80 and Ac of 75.0% with three-fold cross-validation. We conclude that texture analysis can be used to quantify heterogeneity in CT images to accurately predict 2-year survival in patients with pancreatic cancer. From these data, we infer differences in the biological evolution of pancreatic cancer subtypes measurable in imaging and identify opportunities for optimized patient selection for therapy.

  12. Pre-therapeutic factors for predicting survival after radioembolization: a single-center experience in 389 patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paprottka, K.J.; Schoeppe, F.; Ingrisch, M.; Ruebenthaler, J.; Sommer, N.N.; Paprottka, P.M.; Toni, E. de; Ilhan, H.; Zacherl, M.; Todica, A.

    2017-01-01

    To determine pre-therapeutic predictive factors for overall survival (OS) after yttrium (Y)-90 radioembolization (RE). We retrospectively analyzed the pre-therapeutic characteristics (sex, age, tumor entity, hepatic tumor burden, extrahepatic disease [EHD] and liver function [with focus on bilirubin and cholinesterase level]) of 389 consecutive patients with various refractory liver-dominant tumors (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC], cholangiocarcinoma [CCC], neuroendocrine tumor [NET], colorectal cancer [CRC] and metastatic breast cancer [MBC]), who received Y-90 radioembolization for predicting survival. Predictive factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequently tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The median OS was 356 days (95% CI 285-427 days). Stable disease was observed in 132 patients, an objective response in 71 (one of which was complete remission) and progressive disease in 122. The best survival rate was observed in patients with NET, and the worst in patients with MBC. In the univariate analyses, extrahepatic disease (P < 0.001), large tumor burden (P = 0.001), high bilirubin levels (>1.9 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and low cholinesterase levels (CHE <4.62 U/I, P < 0.001) at baseline were significantly associated with poor survival. Tumor entity, tumor burden, extrahepatic disease and CHE were confirmed in the multivariate analysis as independent predictors of survival. Sex, applied RE dose and age had no significant influence on OS. Pre-therapeutic baseline bilirubin and CHE levels, extrahepatic disease and hepatic tumor burden are associated with patient survival after RE. Such parameters may be used to improve patient selection for RE of primary or metastatic liver tumors. (orig.)

  13. Pre-therapeutic factors for predicting survival after radioembolization: a single-center experience in 389 patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paprottka, K.J.; Schoeppe, F.; Ingrisch, M.; Ruebenthaler, J.; Sommer, N.N.; Paprottka, P.M. [LMU - University of Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Toni, E. de [LMU - University of Munich, Department of Hepatology, Munich (Germany); Ilhan, H.; Zacherl, M.; Todica, A. [LMU - University of Munich, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany)

    2017-07-15

    To determine pre-therapeutic predictive factors for overall survival (OS) after yttrium (Y)-90 radioembolization (RE). We retrospectively analyzed the pre-therapeutic characteristics (sex, age, tumor entity, hepatic tumor burden, extrahepatic disease [EHD] and liver function [with focus on bilirubin and cholinesterase level]) of 389 consecutive patients with various refractory liver-dominant tumors (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC], cholangiocarcinoma [CCC], neuroendocrine tumor [NET], colorectal cancer [CRC] and metastatic breast cancer [MBC]), who received Y-90 radioembolization for predicting survival. Predictive factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequently tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The median OS was 356 days (95% CI 285-427 days). Stable disease was observed in 132 patients, an objective response in 71 (one of which was complete remission) and progressive disease in 122. The best survival rate was observed in patients with NET, and the worst in patients with MBC. In the univariate analyses, extrahepatic disease (P < 0.001), large tumor burden (P = 0.001), high bilirubin levels (>1.9 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and low cholinesterase levels (CHE <4.62 U/I, P < 0.001) at baseline were significantly associated with poor survival. Tumor entity, tumor burden, extrahepatic disease and CHE were confirmed in the multivariate analysis as independent predictors of survival. Sex, applied RE dose and age had no significant influence on OS. Pre-therapeutic baseline bilirubin and CHE levels, extrahepatic disease and hepatic tumor burden are associated with patient survival after RE. Such parameters may be used to improve patient selection for RE of primary or metastatic liver tumors. (orig.)

  14. Simulated biologic intelligence used to predict length of stay and survival of burns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frye, K E; Izenberg, S D; Williams, M D; Luterman, A

    1996-01-01

    From July 13, 1988, to May 14, 1995, 1585 patients with burns and no other injuries besides inhalation were treated; 4.5% did not survive. Artificial neural networks were trained on patient presentation data with known outcomes on 90% of the randomized cases. The remaining cases were then used to predict survival and length of stay in cases not trained on. Survival was predicted with more than 98% accuracy and length of stay to within a week with 72% accuracy in these cases. For anatomic area involved by burn, burns involving the feet, scalp, or both had the largest negative effect on the survival prediction. In survivors burns involving the buttocks, transport to this burn center by the military or by helicopter, electrical burns, hot tar burns, and inhalation were associated with increasing the length of stay prediction. Neural networks can be used to accurately predict the clinical outcome of a burn. What factors affect that prediction can be investigated.

  15. Factors predictive of survival and estimated years of life lost in the decade following nontraumatic and traumatic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, B B; Wood-Wentz, C M; Therneau, T M; Walker, M G; Payne, J M; Reeves, R K

    2017-06-01

    Retrospective chart review. To identify factors predictive of survival after spinal cord injury (SCI). Tertiary care institution. Multiple-variable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for 759 patients with SCI (535 nontraumatic and 221 traumatic) included age, sex, completeness of injury, level of injury, functional independence measure (FIM) scores, rehabilitation length of stay and SCI cause. Estimated years of life lost in the decade after injury was calculated for patients vs uninjured controls. Median follow-up was 11.4 years. Population characteristics included paraplegia, 58%; complete injury, 11%; male sex, 64%; and median rehabilitation length of stay, 16 days. Factors independently predictive of decreased survival were increased age (+10 years; hazard ratio (HR (95% CI)), 1.6 (1.4-1.7)), male sex (1.3 (1.0-1.6)), lower dismissal FIM score (-10 points; 1.3 (1.2-1.3)) and all nontraumatic causes. Metastatic cancer had the largest decrease in survival (HR (95% CI), 13.3 (8.7-20.2)). Primary tumors (HR (95% CI), 2.5 (1.7-3.8)), vascular (2.5 (1.6-3.8)), musculoskeletal/stenosis (1.7 (1.2-2.5)) and other nontraumatic SCI (2.3 (1.5-3.6)) were associated with decreased survival. Ten-year survival was decreased in nontraumatic SCI (mean (s.d.), 1.8 (0.3) years lost), with largest decreases in survival for metastatic cancer and spinal cord ischemia. Age, male sex and lower dismissal FIM score were associated with decreased survival, but neither injury severity nor level was associated with it. Survival after SCI varies depending on SCI cause, with survival better after traumatic SCI than after nontraumatic SCI. Metastatic cancer and vascular ischemia were associated with the greatest survival reduction.

  16. Immune phenotypes predict survival in patients with glioblastoma multiforme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haouraa Mostafa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM, a common primary malignant brain tumor, rarely disseminates beyond the central nervous system and has a very bad prognosis. The current study aimed at the analysis of immunological control in individual patients with GBM. Methods Immune phenotypes and plasma biomarkers of GBM patients were determined at the time of diagnosis using flow cytometry and ELISA, respectively. Results Using descriptive statistics, we found that immune anomalies were distinct in individual patients. Defined marker profiles proved highly relevant for survival. A remarkable relation between activated NK cells and improved survival in GBM patients was in contrast to increased CD39 and IL-10 in patients with a detrimental course and very short survival. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA and Cox proportional hazards models substantiated the relevance of absolute numbers of CD8 cells and low numbers of CD39 cells for better survival. Conclusions Defined alterations of the immune system may guide the course of disease in patients with GBM and may be prognostically valuable for longitudinal studies or can be applied for immune intervention.

  17. Predictive modelling of Lactobacillus casei KN291 survival in fermented soy beverage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielińska, Dorota; Dorota, Zielińska; Kołożyn-Krajewska, Danuta; Danuta, Kołożyn-Krajewska; Goryl, Antoni; Antoni, Goryl; Motyl, Ilona

    2014-02-01

    The aim of the study was to construct and verify predictive growth and survival models of a potentially probiotic bacteria in fermented soy beverage. The research material included natural soy beverage (Polgrunt, Poland) and the strain of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) - Lactobacillus casei KN291. To construct predictive models for the growth and survival of L. casei KN291 bacteria in the fermented soy beverage we design an experiment which allowed the collection of CFU data. Fermented soy beverage samples were stored at various temperature conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20°C) for 28 days. On the basis of obtained data concerning the survival of L. casei KN291 bacteria in soy beverage at different temperature and time conditions, two non-linear models (r(2)= 0.68-0.93) and two surface models (r(2)=0.76-0.79) were constructed; these models described the behaviour of the bacteria in the product to a satisfactory extent. Verification of the surface models was carried out utilizing the validation data - at 7°C during 28 days. It was found that applied models were well fitted and charged with small systematic errors, which is evidenced by accuracy factor - Af, bias factor - Bf and mean squared error - MSE. The constructed microbiological growth and survival models of L. casei KN291 in fermented soy beverage enable the estimation of products shelf life period, which in this case is defined by the requirement for the level of the bacteria to be above 10(6) CFU/cm(3). The constructed models may be useful as a tool for the manufacture of probiotic foods to estimate of their shelf life period.

  18. C-Reactive Protein Levels at Diagnosis of Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Predict Steroid-Refractory Disease, Treatment-Related Mortality, and Overall Survival after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minculescu, Lia; Kornblit, Brian Thomas; Friis, Lone Smidstrups

    2018-01-01

    , and their prognosis is especially poor. There is experimental evidence that coexisting inflammation aggravates aGVHD. Because C-reactive protein (CRP) is a systemic inflammatory marker, we aimed to investigate whether plasma CRP concentrations at the diagnosis of aGVHD can predict the risk of failing first-line...... of aGVHD diagnosis. According to local protocol, patients with failed response to high-dose steroid therapy (2 mg/kg) were treated with the TNF-α inhibitor infliximab and categorized as having steroid-refractory disease. Of 148 patients with grade II-IV aGVHD, 28 (19%) developed steroid......-refractory disease. In these patients, plasma CRP concentration at diagnosis ranged between patients who developed steroid-refractory disease compared with those who responded to high-dose corticosteroid therapy (odds ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1...

  19. Survival Prediction in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma by Quantitative Computed Tomography Image Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attiyeh, Marc A; Chakraborty, Jayasree; Doussot, Alexandre; Langdon-Embry, Liana; Mainarich, Shiana; Gönen, Mithat; Balachandran, Vinod P; D'Angelica, Michael I; DeMatteo, Ronald P; Jarnagin, William R; Kingham, T Peter; Allen, Peter J; Simpson, Amber L; Do, Richard K

    2018-04-01

    Pancreatic cancer is a highly lethal cancer with no established a priori markers of survival. Existing nomograms rely mainly on post-resection data and are of limited utility in directing surgical management. This study investigated the use of quantitative computed tomography (CT) features to preoperatively assess survival for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients. A prospectively maintained database identified consecutive chemotherapy-naive patients with CT angiography and resected PDAC between 2009 and 2012. Variation in CT enhancement patterns was extracted from the tumor region using texture analysis, a quantitative image analysis tool previously described in the literature. Two continuous survival models were constructed, with 70% of the data (training set) using Cox regression, first based only on preoperative serum cancer antigen (CA) 19-9 levels and image features (model A), and then on CA19-9, image features, and the Brennan score (composite pathology score; model B). The remaining 30% of the data (test set) were reserved for independent validation. A total of 161 patients were included in the analysis. Training and test sets contained 113 and 48 patients, respectively. Quantitative image features combined with CA19-9 achieved a c-index of 0.69 [integrated Brier score (IBS) 0.224] on the test data, while combining CA19-9, imaging, and the Brennan score achieved a c-index of 0.74 (IBS 0.200) on the test data. We present two continuous survival prediction models for resected PDAC patients. Quantitative analysis of CT texture features is associated with overall survival. Further work includes applying the model to an external dataset to increase the sample size for training and to determine its applicability.

  20. Peritumoral interstitial fluid flow velocity predicts survival in cervical carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hompland, Tord; Lund, Kjersti V.; Ellingsen, Christine; Kristensen, Gunnar B.; Rofstad, Einar K.

    2014-01-01

    Background and purpose: High tumor interstitial fluid pressure (IFP) is associated with poor outcome in locally advanced carcinoma of the uterine cervix. We have recently developed a noninvasive assay of the IFP of tumors, and in this assay, the outward interstitial fluid flow velocity at the tumor surface (v 0 ) is measured by Gd-DTPA-based DCE-MRI and used as a parameter for IFP. Here, we investigated the independent prognostic significance of v 0 in cervical cancer patients given cisplatin-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy with curative intent. Patients: The study involved 62 evaluable patients from a cohort of 74 consecutive patients (Stage IB through IIIB) with a median follow-up of 5.5 years. Results: The actuarial disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) at 5 years were 67% and 76%, respectively. Significant associations were found between v 0 dichotomized about the median value and DFS and OS, both in the total patient cohort and a subcohort of 40 Stage IIB patients. Multivariate analysis involving stage, tumor volume, lymph node status, and v 0 revealed that only v 0 provided independent prognostic information about DFS and OS. Conclusion: This investigation demonstrates a strong, independent prognostic impact of the pretreatment peritumoral fluid flow velocity in cervical cancer

  1. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petersen, Japke F.; Stuiver, Martijn M.; Timmermans, Adriana J.; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P.; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T.; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W. M.

    2017-01-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442

  2. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird

    OpenAIRE

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H.; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R.

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival ove...

  3. The accuracy of survival time prediction for patients with glioma is improved by measuring mitotic spindle checkpoint gene expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bie

    Full Text Available Identification of gene expression changes that improve prediction of survival time across all glioma grades would be clinically useful. Four Affymetrix GeneChip datasets from the literature, containing data from 771 glioma samples representing all WHO grades and eight normal brain samples, were used in an ANOVA model to screen for transcript changes that correlated with grade. Observations were confirmed and extended using qPCR assays on RNA derived from 38 additional glioma samples and eight normal samples for which survival data were available. RNA levels of eight major mitotic spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC genes (BUB1, BUB1B, BUB3, CENPE, MAD1L1, MAD2L1, CDC20, TTK significantly correlated with glioma grade and six also significantly correlated with survival time. In particular, the level of BUB1B expression was highly correlated with survival time (p<0.0001, and significantly outperformed all other measured parameters, including two standards; WHO grade and MIB-1 (Ki-67 labeling index. Measurement of the expression levels of a small set of SAC genes may complement histological grade and other clinical parameters for predicting survival time.

  4. Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett W Pinsky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to accurately predict a population′s long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population′s long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS projections were calculated and com-pared with the population′s actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1 fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A and (2 uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B. Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted sur-vival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%. Excellent predictability (41.3% can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population′s long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

  5. L-Dopa decarboxylase (DDC) constitutes an emerging biomarker in predicting patients' survival with stomach adenocarcinomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florou, Dimitra; Papadopoulos, Iordanis N; Fragoulis, Emmanuel G; Scorilas, Andreas

    2013-02-01

    Stomach adenocarcinoma represents a major health problem and is regarded as the second commonest cause of cancer-associated mortality, universally, since it is still difficult to be perceived at a curable stage. Several lines of evidence have pointed out that the expression of L-Dopa decarboxylase (DDC) gene and/or protein becomes distinctively modulated in several human neuroendocrine neoplasms as well as adenocarcinomas. In order to elucidate the clinical role of DDC on primary gastric adenocarcinomas, we determined qualitatively and quantitatively the mRNA levels of the gene with regular PCR and real-time PCR by using the comparative threshold cycle method, correspondingly, and detected the expression of DDC protein by immunoblotting in cancerous and normal stomach tissue specimens. A statistically significant association was disclosed between DDC expression and gastric intestinal histotype as well as tumor localization at the distal third part of the stomach (p = 0.025 and p = 0.029, respectively). Univariate and multivariate analyses highlighted the powerful prognostic importance of DDC in relation to disease-free survival and overall survival of gastric cancer patients. According to Kaplan-Meier curves, the relative risk of relapse was found to be decreased in DDC-positive (p = 0.031) patients who, also, exhibited higher overall survival rates (p = 0.016) than those with DDC-negative tumors. This work is the first to shed light on the potential clinical usefulness of DDC, as an efficient tumor biomarker in gastric cancer. The provided evidence underlines the propitious predictive value of DDC expression in the survival of stomach adenocarcinoma patients.

  6. Stimulated monocyte IL-6 secretion predicts survival of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heimdal, John-Helge; Kross, Kenneth; Klementsen, Beate; Olofsson, Jan; Aarstad, Hans Jørgen

    2008-01-01

    This study was performed in order to determine whether monocyte in vitro function is associated with presence, stage and prognosis of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) disease. Prospective study describing outcome, after at least five years observation, of patients treated for HNSCC disease in relation to their monocyte function. Sixty-five patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC and eighteen control patients were studied. Monocyte responsiveness was assessed by measuring levels of monocyte in vitro interleukin (IL)-6 and monocyte chemotactic peptide (MCP)-1 secretion after 24 hours of endotoxin stimulation in cultures supplied either with 20% autologous serum (AS) or serum free medium (SFM). Survival, and if relevant, cause of death, was determined at least 5 years following primary diagnosis. All patients, as a group, had higher in vitro monocyte responsiveness in terms of IL-6 (AS) (t = 2.03; p < 0.05) and MCP-1 (SFM) (t = 2.49; p < 0.05) compared to controls. Increased in vitro monocyte IL-6 endotoxin responsiveness under the SFM condition was associated with decreased survival rate (Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.27; Confidence interval (CI) = 1.05–4.88; p < 0.05). The predictive value of monocyte responsiveness, as measured by IL-6, was also retained when adjusted for age, gender and disease stage of patients (HR = 2.67; CI = 1.03–6.92; p < 0.05). With respect to MCP-1, low endotoxin-stimulated responsiveness (AS), analysed by Kaplan-Meier method, predicted decreased survival (χ = 4.0; p < 0.05). In HNSCC patients, changed monocyte in vitro response to endotoxin, as measured by increased IL-6 (SFM) and decreased MCP-1 (AS) responsiveness, are negative prognostic factors

  7. Facial morphology predicts male fitness and rank but not survival in Second World War Finnish soldiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehr, John; O'Hara, Robert B

    2013-08-23

    We investigated fitness, military rank and survival of facial phenotypes in large-scale warfare using 795 Finnish soldiers who fought in the Winter War (1939-1940). We measured facial width-to-height ratio-a trait known to predict aggressive behaviour in males-and assessed whether facial morphology could predict survival, lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and social status. We found no difference in survival along the phenotypic gradient, however, wider-faced individuals had greater LRS, but achieved a lower military rank.

  8. A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with breast cancer brain metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhou; Sun, Bing; Wu, Shikai; Meng, Xiangying; Cong, Yang; Shen, Ge; Song, Santai

    2018-05-01

    Brain metastasis (BM) is common in patients with breast cancer. Predicting patient survival is critical for the clinical management of breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM). The present study was designed to develop and evaluate a prognostic model for patients with newly diagnosed BCBM. Based on the clinical data of patients with BCBM treated in the Affiliated Hospital of Academy of Military Medical Sciences (Beijing, China) between 2002 and 2014, a nomogram was developed to predict survival using proportional hazards regression analysis. The model was validated internally by bootstrapping, and the concordance index (c-index) was calculated. A calibration curve and c-index were used to evaluate discriminatory and predictive ability, in order to compare the nomogram with widely used models, including recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), graded prognostic assessment (GPA) and breast-graded prognostic assessment (Breast-GPA). A total of 411 patients with BCBM were included in the development of this predictive model. The median overall survival time was 14.1 months. Statistically significant predictors for patient survival included biological subtype, Karnofsky performance score, leptomeningeal metastasis, extracranial metastasis, the number of brain metastases and disease-free survival. A nomogram for predicting 1- and 2-year overall survival rates was constructed, which exhibited good accuracy in predicting overall survival with a concordance index of 0.735. This model outperformed RPA, GPA and Breast-GPA, based on the comparisons of the c-indexes. The nomogram constructed based on a multiple factor analysis was able to more accurately predict the individual survival probability of patients with BCBM, compared with existing models.

  9. Review and evaluation of performance measures for survival prediction models in external validation settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shafiqur Rahman

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. Methods An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Results Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell’s concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. Conclusions We recommend that Uno’s concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller’s measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston’s D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive

  10. Convergent RANK- and c-Met-mediated signaling components predict survival of patients with prostate cancer: an interracial comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Peizhen; Chung, Leland W K; Berel, Dror; Frierson, Henry F; Yang, Hua; Liu, Chunyan; Wang, Ruoxiang; Li, Qinlong; Rogatko, Andre; Zhau, Haiyen E

    2013-01-01

    We reported (PLoS One 6 (12):e28670, 2011) that the activation of c-Met signaling in RANKL-overexpressing bone metastatic LNCaP cell and xenograft models increased expression of RANK, RANKL, c-Met, and phosphorylated c-Met, and mediated downstream signaling. We confirmed the significance of the RANK-mediated signaling network in castration resistant clinical human prostate cancer (PC) tissues. In this report, we used a multispectral quantum dot labeling technique to label six RANK and c-Met convergent signaling pathway mediators simultaneously in formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue specimens, quantify the intensity of each expression at the sub-cellular level, and investigated their potential utility as predictors of patient survival in Caucasian-American, African-American and Chinese men. We found that RANKL and neuropilin-1 (NRP-1) expression predicts survival of Caucasian-Americans with PC. A Gleason score ≥ 8 combined with nuclear p-c-Met expression predicts survival in African-American PC patients. Neuropilin-1, p-NF-κB p65 and VEGF are predictors for the overall survival of Chinese men with PC. These results collectively support interracial differences in cell signaling networks that can predict the survival of PC patients.

  11. Convergent RANK- and c-Met-mediated signaling components predict survival of patients with prostate cancer: an interracial comparative study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peizhen Hu

    Full Text Available We reported (PLoS One 6 (12:e28670, 2011 that the activation of c-Met signaling in RANKL-overexpressing bone metastatic LNCaP cell and xenograft models increased expression of RANK, RANKL, c-Met, and phosphorylated c-Met, and mediated downstream signaling. We confirmed the significance of the RANK-mediated signaling network in castration resistant clinical human prostate cancer (PC tissues. In this report, we used a multispectral quantum dot labeling technique to label six RANK and c-Met convergent signaling pathway mediators simultaneously in formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE tissue specimens, quantify the intensity of each expression at the sub-cellular level, and investigated their potential utility as predictors of patient survival in Caucasian-American, African-American and Chinese men. We found that RANKL and neuropilin-1 (NRP-1 expression predicts survival of Caucasian-Americans with PC. A Gleason score ≥ 8 combined with nuclear p-c-Met expression predicts survival in African-American PC patients. Neuropilin-1, p-NF-κB p65 and VEGF are predictors for the overall survival of Chinese men with PC. These results collectively support interracial differences in cell signaling networks that can predict the survival of PC patients.

  12. MiRNA expression patterns predict survival in glioblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niyazi, Maximilian; Belka, Claus; Zehentmayr, Franz; Niemöller, Olivier M; Eigenbrod, Sabina; Kretzschmar, Hans; Osthoff, Klaus-Schulze; Tonn, Jörg-Christian; Atkinson, Mike; Mörtl, Simone

    2011-01-01

    In order to define new prognostic subgroups in patients with glioblastoma a miRNA screen (> 1000 miRNAs) from paraffin tissues followed by a bio-mathematical analysis was performed. 35 glioblastoma patients treated between 7/2005 - 8/2008 at a single institution with surgery and postoperative radio(chemo)therapy were included in this retrospective analysis. For microarray analysis the febit biochip 'Geniom ® Biochip MPEA homo-sapiens' was used. Total RNA was isolated from FFPE tissue sections and 1100 different miRNAs were analyzed. It was possible to define a distinct miRNA expression pattern allowing for a separation of distinct prognostic subgroups. The defined miRNA pattern was significantly associated with early death versus long-term survival (split at 450 days) (p = 0.01). The pattern and the prognostic power were both independent of the MGMT status. At present, this is the first dataset defining a prognostic role of miRNA expression patterns in patients with glioblastoma. Having defined such a pattern, a prospective validation of this observation is required

  13. Spatial predictions at the community level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Amen, Manuela; Rahbek, Carsten; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

    2017-01-01

    of communities, with a particular focus on species richness, composition, relative abundance and related attributes. We first briefly describe the concepts and theories that span the different drivers of species assembly. A combination of abiotic processes and biotic mechanisms are thought to influence...... the community assembly process. In this review, we describe four categories of drivers: (i) historical and evolutionary, (ii) environmental, (iii) biotic, and (iv) stochastic. We discuss the different modelling approaches proposed or applied at the community level and examine them from different standpoints, i......A fundamental goal of ecological research is to understand and model how processes generate patterns so that if conditions change, changes in the patterns can be predicted. Different approaches have been proposed for modelling species assemblage, but their use to predict spatial patterns of species...

  14. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy metabolite profiles predict survival in paediatric brain tumours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Martin; Cummins, Carole L; Macpherson, Lesley; Sun, Yu; Natarajan, Kal; Grundy, Richard G; Arvanitis, Theodoros N; Kauppinen, Risto A; Peet, Andrew C

    2013-01-01

    Brain tumours cause the highest mortality and morbidity rate of all childhood tumour groups and new methods are required to improve clinical management. (1)H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) allows non-invasive concentration measurements of small molecules present in tumour tissue, providing clinically useful imaging biomarkers. The primary aim of this study was to investigate whether MRS detectable molecules can predict the survival of paediatric brain tumour patients. Short echo time (30ms) single voxel (1)H MRS was performed on children attending Birmingham Children's Hospital with a suspected brain tumour and 115 patients were included in the survival analysis. Patients were followed-up for a median period of 35 months and Cox-Regression was used to establish the prognostic value of individual MRS detectable molecules. A multivariate model of survival was also investigated to improve prognostic power. Lipids and scyllo-inositol predicted poor survival whilst glutamine and N-acetyl aspartate predicted improved survival (pmodel of survival based on three MRS biomarkers predicted survival with a similar accuracy to histologic grading (p5e-5). A negative correlation between lipids and glutamine was found, suggesting a functional link between these molecules. MRS detectable biomolecules have been identified that predict survival of paediatric brain tumour patients across a range of tumour types. The evaluation of these biomarkers in large prospective studies of specific tumour types should be undertaken. The correlation between lipids and glutamine provides new insight into paediatric brain tumour metabolism that may present novel targets for therapy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. SU-F-R-04: Radiomics for Survival Prediction in Glioblastoma (GBM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, H; Molitoris, J; Bhooshan, N; Choi, W; Lu, W; Mehta, M; D’Souza, W [University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Tan, S [Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan (China); Giacomelli, I; Scartoni, D [University of Florence, Florence (Italy); Gzell, C [Northern Sydney Cancer Centre, Sydney (Australia)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To develop a quantitative radiomics approach for survival prediction of glioblastoma (GBM) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods: 28 GBM patients who received CRT at our institution were retrospectively studied. 255 radiomic features were extracted from 3 gadolinium-enhanced T1 weighted MRIs for 2 regions of interest (ROIs) (the surgical cavity and its surrounding enhancement rim). The 3 MRIs were at pre-treatment, 1-month and 3-month post-CRT. The imaging features comprehensively quantified the intensity, spatial variation (texture), geometric property and their spatial-temporal changes for the 2 ROIs. 3 demographics features (age, race, gender) and 12 clinical parameters (KPS, extent of resection, whether concurrent temozolomide was adjusted/stopped and radiotherapy related information) were also included. 4 Machine learning models (logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), neural network (NN)) were applied to predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The number of cases and percentage of cases predicted correctly were collected and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) were determined after leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: From univariate analysis, 27 features (1 demographic, 1 clinical and 25 imaging) were statistically significant (p<0.05) for both OS and PFS. Two sets of features (each contained 24 features) were algorithmically selected from all features to predict OS and PFS. High prediction accuracy of OS was achieved by using NN (96%, 27 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.99), LR (93%, 26 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.95) and SVM (93%, 26 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.90). When predicting PFS, NN obtained the highest prediction accuracy (89%, 25 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.92). Conclusion: Radiomics approach combined with patients’ demographics and clinical parameters can

  16. A hybrid approach of gene sets and single genes for the prediction of survival risks with gene expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seok, Junhee; Davis, Ronald W; Xiao, Wenzhong

    2015-01-01

    Accumulated biological knowledge is often encoded as gene sets, collections of genes associated with similar biological functions or pathways. The use of gene sets in the analyses of high-throughput gene expression data has been intensively studied and applied in clinical research. However, the main interest remains in finding modules of biological knowledge, or corresponding gene sets, significantly associated with disease conditions. Risk prediction from censored survival times using gene sets hasn't been well studied. In this work, we propose a hybrid method that uses both single gene and gene set information together to predict patient survival risks from gene expression profiles. In the proposed method, gene sets provide context-level information that is poorly reflected by single genes. Complementarily, single genes help to supplement incomplete information of gene sets due to our imperfect biomedical knowledge. Through the tests over multiple data sets of cancer and trauma injury, the proposed method showed robust and improved performance compared with the conventional approaches with only single genes or gene sets solely. Additionally, we examined the prediction result in the trauma injury data, and showed that the modules of biological knowledge used in the prediction by the proposed method were highly interpretable in biology. A wide range of survival prediction problems in clinical genomics is expected to benefit from the use of biological knowledge.

  17. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garzon, Benjamin; Emblem, Kyrre E.; Mouridsen, Kim; Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K.; Bjoernerud, Atle; Haaberg, Asta K.; Kvinnsland, Yngve

    2011-01-01

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  18. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garzon, Benjamin (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)), email: benjamin.garzon@ntnu.no; Emblem, Kyrre E. (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Dept. of Radiology, MGH-HST AA Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston (United States)); Mouridsen, Kim (Center of Functionally Integrative Neuroscience, Aarhus Univ., Aarhus (Denmark)); Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K. (Dept. of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Bjoernerud, Atle (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Haaberg, Asta K. (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Dept. of Medical Imaging, St Olav' s Hospital, Trondheim (Norway)); Kvinnsland, Yngve (NordicImagingLab, Bergen (Norway))

    2011-11-15

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  19. A Validated Prediction Model for Overall Survival From Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Toward Survival Prediction for Individual Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberije, Cary, E-mail: cary.oberije@maastro.nl [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); De Ruysscher, Dirk [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Universitaire Ziekenhuizen Leuven, KU Leuven (Belgium); Houben, Ruud [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Heuvel, Michel van de; Uyterlinde, Wilma [Department of Thoracic Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Deasy, Joseph O. [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York (United States); Belderbos, Jose [Department of Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Dingemans, Anne-Marie C. [Department of Pulmonology, University Hospital Maastricht, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht (Netherlands); Rimner, Andreas; Din, Shaun [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York (United States); Lambin, Philippe [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2015-07-15

    Purpose: Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing and validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Methods and Materials: Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). Results: The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability ( (www.predictcancer.org)). The data set can be downloaded at (https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048). Conclusions: The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system.

  20. A priori Prediction of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients using Quantitative Ultrasound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadayyon, Hadi; Sannachi, Lakshmanan; Gangeh, Mehrdad J; Kim, Christina; Ghandi, Sonal; Trudeau, Maureen; Pritchard, Kathleen; Tran, William T; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Sadeghi-Naini, Ali; Czarnota, Gregory J

    2017-04-12

    Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) can probe tissue structure and analyze tumour characteristics. Using a 6-MHz ultrasound system, radiofrequency data were acquired from 56 locally advanced breast cancer patients prior to their neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and QUS texture features were computed from regions of interest in tumour cores and their margins as potential predictive and prognostic indicators. Breast tumour molecular features were also collected and used for analysis. A multiparametric QUS model was constructed, which demonstrated a response prediction accuracy of 88% and ability to predict patient 5-year survival rates (p = 0.01). QUS features demonstrated superior performance in comparison to molecular markers and the combination of QUS and molecular markers did not improve response prediction. This study demonstrates, for the first time, that non-invasive QUS features in the core and margin of breast tumours can indicate breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and predict five-year recurrence-free survival.

  1. Evaluating the efficacy of tumor markers CA 19-9 and CEA to predict operability and survival in pancreatic malignancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Jay; Prabhu, Ramkrishna; Eshpuniyani, Priya; Kantharia, Chetan; Supe, Avinash

    2010-01-01

    Using CA 19-9 and CEA (elevated > 2 times of normal) as predictors in determining operability and survival in pancreatic tumors. Levels of CA 19-9 and CEA were measured (pre and post operatively) in 49 patients of pancreatic malignancy. CECT was performed for diagnosis and staging. An experienced surgeon determined the operability. The levels of tumor markers were correlated with the operability and the survival based on CECT and intra-operative findings. 16/24 (67%) patients with CA 19-9 levels (CEA levels (CEA levels (p = 0.003) were found to be non-resectable. Of the 27 patients, found resectable on CECT, 5 were non-resectable intra-operatively. All of these had elevated levels of CA 19-9 and 4/5 (80%) had elevated levels of CEA. Only 5/21 (23%) non-resectable patients, with elevated levels of CA 19-9 reported at 1 year follow up. None of the non-resectable patients with CA 19-9 levels > 1000 U/ml reported at 6 month follow-up. None of the resectable patients pre-operatively showed evidence of recurrence. All achieved normal values post surgery. Elevated levels of CA 19-9 and CEA (> 2 times) predict increased chances of inoperability and poor survival in pancreatic tumors. Levels > 3 times had increased risk of inoperability even in patients deemed resectable on CT-Scan. Diagnostic laparoscopy would be beneficial in these patients. Levels of CA 19-9 (> 1000 U/ml) indicate a dismal survival in non-resectable group of patients.

  2. Deep learning predictions of survival based on MRI in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Burgh, Hannelore K; Schmidt, Ruben; Westeneng, Henk-Jan; de Reus, Marcel A; van den Berg, Leonard H; van den Heuvel, Martijn P

    2017-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neuromuscular disease, with large variation in survival between patients. Currently, it remains rather difficult to predict survival based on clinical parameters alone. Here, we set out to use clinical characteristics in combination with MRI data to predict survival of ALS patients using deep learning, a machine learning technique highly effective in a broad range of big-data analyses. A group of 135 ALS patients was included from whom high-resolution diffusion-weighted and T1-weighted images were acquired at the first visit to the outpatient clinic. Next, each of the patients was monitored carefully and survival time to death was recorded. Patients were labeled as short, medium or long survivors, based on their recorded time to death as measured from the time of disease onset. In the deep learning procedure, the total group of 135 patients was split into a training set for deep learning (n = 83 patients), a validation set (n = 20) and an independent evaluation set (n = 32) to evaluate the performance of the obtained deep learning networks. Deep learning based on clinical characteristics predicted survival category correctly in 68.8% of the cases. Deep learning based on MRI predicted 62.5% correctly using structural connectivity and 62.5% using brain morphology data. Notably, when we combined the three sources of information, deep learning prediction accuracy increased to 84.4%. Taken together, our findings show the added value of MRI with respect to predicting survival in ALS, demonstrating the advantage of deep learning in disease prognostication.

  3. The multidimensional behavioural hypervolumes of two interacting species predict their space use and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenstein, James L L; Wright, Colin M; McEwen, Brendan; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Pruitt, Jonathan N

    2017-10-01

    Individual animals differ consistently in their behaviour, thus impacting a wide variety of ecological outcomes. Recent advances in animal personality research have established the ecological importance of the multidimensional behavioural volume occupied by individuals and by multispecies communities. Here, we examine the degree to which the multidimensional behavioural volume of a group predicts the outcome of both intra- and interspecific interactions. In particular, we test the hypothesis that a population of conspecifics will experience low intraspecific competition when the population occupies a large volume in behavioural space. We further hypothesize that populations of interacting species will exhibit greater interspecific competition when one or both species occupy large volumes in behavioural space. We evaluate these hypotheses by studying groups of katydids ( Scudderia nymphs) and froghoppers ( Philaenus spumarius ), which compete for food and space on their shared host plant, Solidago canadensis . We found that individuals in single-species groups of katydids positioned themselves closer to one another, suggesting reduced competition, when groups occupied a large behavioural volume. When both species were placed together, we found that the survival of froghoppers was greatest when both froghoppers and katydids occupied a small volume in behavioural space, particularly at high froghopper densities. These results suggest that groups that occupy large behavioural volumes can have low intraspecific competition but high interspecific competition. Thus, behavioural hypervolumes appear to have ecological consequences at both the level of the population and the community and may help to predict the intensity of competition both within and across species.

  4. PIAS3 expression in squamous cell lung cancer is low and predicts overall survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbas, Rime; McColl, Karen S; Kresak, Adam; Yang, Michael; Chen, Yanwen; Fu, Pingfu; Wildey, Gary; Dowlati, Afshin

    2015-01-01

    Unlike lung adenocarcinoma, little progress has been made in the treatment of squamous cell lung carcinoma (SCC). The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) has recently reported that receptor tyrosine kinase signaling pathways are altered in 26% of SCC tumors, validating the importance of downstream Signal Transducers and Activators of Transcription 3 (STAT3) activity as a prime therapeutic target in this cancer. In the present report we examine the status of an endogenous inhibitor of STAT3, called Protein Inhibitor of Activated STAT3 (PIAS3), in SCC and its potential role in this disease. We examine PIAS3 expression in SCC tumors and cell lines by immunohistochemistry of a tissue microarray and western blotting. PIAS3 mRNA expression and survival data are analyzed in the TCGA data set. SCC cell lines are treated with curcumin to regulate PIAS3 expression and cell growth. PIAS3 protein expression is decreased in a majority of lung SCC tumors and cell lines. Analysis of PIAS3 mRNA transcript levels demonstrated that low PIAS3 levels predicted poor survival; Cox regression analysis revealed a hazard ratio of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.37–0.87), indicating a decrease in the risk of death by 43% for every unit elevation in PIAS3 gene expression. Curcumin treatment increased endogenous PIAS3 expression and decreased cell growth and viability in Calu-1 cells, a model of SCC. Our results implicate PIAS3 loss in the pathology of lung SCC and raise the therapeutic possibility of upregulating PIAS3 expression as a single target that can suppress signaling from the multiple receptor tyrosine kinase receptors found to be amplified in SCC

  5. A new scoring system for predicting survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schild, Steven E; Tan, Angelina D; Wampfler, Jason A; Ross, Helen J; Yang, Ping; Sloan, Jeff A

    2015-01-01

    This analysis was performed to create a scoring system to estimate the survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Data from 1274 NSCLC patients were analyzed to create and validate a scoring system. Univariate (UV) and multivariate (MV) Cox models were used to evaluate the prognostic importance of each baseline factor. Prognostic factors that were significant on both UV and MV analyses were used to develop the score. These included quality of life, age, performance status, primary tumor diameter, nodal status, distant metastases, and smoking cessation. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 5-year survival rate (%) by 10 and summing these scores to form a total score. MV models and the score were validated using bootstrapping with 1000 iterations from the original samples. The score for each prognostic factor ranged from 1 to 7 points with higher scores reflective of better survival. Total scores (sum of the scores from each independent prognostic factor) of 32–37 correlated with a 5-year survival of 8.3% (95% CI = 0–17.1%), 38–43 correlated with a 5-year survival of 20% (95% CI = 13–27%), 44–47 correlated with a 5-year survival of 48.3% (95% CI = 41.5–55.2%), 48–49 correlated to a 5-year survival of 72.1% (95% CI = 65.6–78.6%), and 50–52 correlated to a 5-year survival of 84.7% (95% CI = 79.6–89.8%). The bootstrap method confirmed the reliability of the score. Prognostic factors significantly associated with survival on both UV and MV analyses were used to construct a valid scoring system that can be used to predict survival of NSCLC patients. Optimally, this score could be used when counseling patients, and designing future trials

  6. Should Master's Level Training To Provide Rural Services Survive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Peter A.

    Despite recent efforts to encourage federal funding of psychological services for underserved populations such as the elderly and residents of rural areas, ample evidence suggests that rural areas are underserved by psychologists. Drawing on data from rural and urban areas in Pennsylvania, this paper argues that master's level training can provide…

  7. Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-05-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

  8. Amyloid Load in Fat Tissue Reflects Disease Severity and Predicts Survival in Amyloidosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gameren, Ingrid I.; Hazenberg, Bouke P. C.; Bijzet, Johan; Haagsma, Elizabeth B.; Vellenga, Edo; Posthumus, Marcel D.; Jager, Pieter L.; Van Rijswijk, Martin H.

    Objective. The severity of systemic amyloidosis is thought to be related to the extent of amyloid deposition. We studied whether amyloid load in fat tissue reflects disease severity and predicts survival. Methods. We studied all consecutive patients with systemic amyloidosis seen between January

  9. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen Miao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF, a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model. Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis.

  10. A clinical-molecular prognostic model to predict survival in patients with post polycythemia vera and post essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passamonti, F; Giorgino, T; Mora, B; Guglielmelli, P; Rumi, E; Maffioli, M; Rambaldi, A; Caramella, M; Komrokji, R; Gotlib, J; Kiladjian, J J; Cervantes, F; Devos, T; Palandri, F; De Stefano, V; Ruggeri, M; Silver, R T; Benevolo, G; Albano, F; Caramazza, D; Merli, M; Pietra, D; Casalone, R; Rotunno, G; Barbui, T; Cazzola, M; Vannucchi, A M

    2017-12-01

    Polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) are myeloproliferative neoplasms with variable risk of evolution into post-PV and post-ET myelofibrosis, from now on referred to as secondary myelofibrosis (SMF). No specific tools have been defined for risk stratification in SMF. To develop a prognostic model for predicting survival, we studied 685 JAK2, CALR, and MPL annotated patients with SMF. Median survival of the whole cohort was 9.3 years (95% CI: 8-not reached-NR-). Through penalized Cox regressions we identified negative predictors of survival and according to beta risk coefficients we assigned 2 points to hemoglobin level <11 g/dl, to circulating blasts ⩾3%, and to CALR-unmutated genotype, 1 point to platelet count <150 × 10 9 /l and to constitutional symptoms, and 0.15 points to any year of age. Myelofibrosis Secondary to PV and ET-Prognostic Model (MYSEC-PM) allocated SMF patients into four risk categories with different survival (P<0.0001): low (median survival NR; 133 patients), intermediate-1 (9.3 years, 95% CI: 8.1-NR; 245 patients), intermediate-2 (4.4 years, 95% CI: 3.2-7.9; 126 patients), and high risk (2 years, 95% CI: 1.7-3.9; 75 patients). Finally, we found that the MYSEC-PM represents the most appropriate tool for SMF decision-making to be used in clinical and trial settings.

  11. In situ immune response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer predicts survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladoire, Sylvain; Mignot, Grégoire; Dabakuyo, Sandrine; Arnould, Laurent; Apetoh, Lionel; Rébé, Cedric; Coudert, Bruno; Martin, Francois; Bizollon, Marie Hélène; Vanoli, André; Coutant, Charles; Fumoleau, Pierre; Bonnetain, Franck; Ghiringhelli, François

    2011-07-01

    Accumulating preclinical evidence suggests that anticancer immune responses contribute to the success of chemotherapy. However, the predictive value of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer remains unknown. We hypothesized that the nature of the immune infiltrate following neoadjuvant chemotherapy would predict patient survival. In a series of 111 consecutive HER2- and a series of 51 non-HER2-overexpressing breast cancer patients treated by neoadjuvant chemotherapy, we studied by immunohistochemistry tumour infiltration by FOXP3 and CD8 T lymphocytes before and after chemotherapy. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox modelling were used to assess relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). A predictive scoring system using American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) pathological staging and immunological markers was created. Association of high CD8 and low FOXP3 cell infiltrates after chemotherapy was significantly associated with improved RFS (p = 0.02) and OS (p = 0.002), and outperformed classical predictive factors in multivariate analysis. A combined score associating CD8/FOXP3 ratio and pathological AJCC staging isolated a subgroup of patients with a long-term overall survival of 100%. Importantly, this score also identified patients with a favourable prognosis in an independent cohort of HER2-negative breast cancer patients. These results suggest that immunological CD8 and FOXP3 cell infiltrate after treatment is an independent predictive factor of survival in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy and provides new insights into the role of the immune milieu and cancer. Copyright © 2011 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Addressing issues associated with evaluating prediction models for survival endpoints based on the concordance statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming; Long, Qi

    2016-09-01

    Prediction models for disease risk and prognosis play an important role in biomedical research, and evaluating their predictive accuracy in the presence of censored data is of substantial interest. The standard concordance (c) statistic has been extended to provide a summary measure of predictive accuracy for survival models. Motivated by a prostate cancer study, we address several issues associated with evaluating survival prediction models based on c-statistic with a focus on estimators using the technique of inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW). Compared to the existing work, we provide complete results on the asymptotic properties of the IPCW estimators under the assumption of coarsening at random (CAR), and propose a sensitivity analysis under the mechanism of noncoarsening at random (NCAR). In addition, we extend the IPCW approach as well as the sensitivity analysis to high-dimensional settings. The predictive accuracy of prediction models for cancer recurrence after prostatectomy is assessed by applying the proposed approaches. We find that the estimated predictive accuracy for the models in consideration is sensitive to NCAR assumption, and thus identify the best predictive model. Finally, we further evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in both settings of low-dimensional and high-dimensional data under CAR and NCAR through simulations. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Survival analysis for predictive factors of delay vaccination in Iranian children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today, beside immunization coverage the age appropriate vaccination is another helpful index in public health. Evidences have shown that high immunization coverage rates do not necessarily imply age-appropriate vaccination status. The current study aimed to show the predictive factors of delayed vaccination by survival models. Methods: A historical cohort study conducted on 3610 children aged between 24 and 47 months who was living in the suburbs of five big cities of Iran. Time of delay in vaccination of first dose of mumps-measles-rubella (MMR was calculated from date of vaccination minus age appropriate time according to vaccine card. Kaplan-Maier and Log rank tests were used for comparison the median of delay time. For controlling of confounding variables, multivariate cox model was used and hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval (95% was reported. Results: The mean ± standard deviation and median interquartile range of delay time was 38.34 ± 73.1 and 16 (11-31 days in delayed group. The Log rank test showed that city of living, nationality, parents′ education, and birth order are related with prolonged delay time in MMR vaccination (P 0.05. Cox regression showed that city of living, mother education, and nationality are the most predictive factors of delay time duration in MMR vaccination. Conclusions: Delay time duration of vaccination increased by faring from capital to the east south. Moreover, concentration of foreign immigrants in big cities and low level of mother education are the most predictors of delayed vaccination. Educational intervention should focus on immigrants and mothers with low education level.

  14. Pressure-Flow During Exercise Catheterization Predicts Survival in Pulmonary Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasler, Elisabeth D; Müller-Mottet, Séverine; Furian, Michael; Saxer, Stéphanie; Huber, Lars C; Maggiorini, Marco; Speich, Rudolf; Bloch, Konrad E; Ulrich, Silvia

    2016-07-01

    Pulmonary hypertension manifests with impaired exercise capacity. Our aim was to investigate whether the mean pulmonary arterial pressure to cardiac output relationship (mPAP/CO) predicts transplant-free survival in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and inoperable chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). Hemodynamic data according to right heart catheterization in patients with PAH and CTEPH at rest and during supine incremental cycle exercise were analyzed. Transplant-free survival and predictive value of hemodynamics were assessed by using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Seventy patients (43 female; 54 with PAH, 16 with CTEPH; median (quartiles) age, 65 [50; 73] years; mPAP, 34 [29; 44] mm Hg; cardiac index, 2.8 [2.3; 3.5] [L/min]/m(2)) were followed up for 610 (251; 1256) days. Survival at 1, 3, 5, and 7 years was 89%, 81%, 71%, and 59%. Age, World Health Organization-functional class, 6-min walk test, and mixed-venous oxygen saturation (but not resting hemodynamics) predicted transplant-free survival. Maximal workload (hazard ratio [HR], 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89-0.99]; P = .027), peak cardiac index (HR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.27-0.95]; P = .034), change in cardiac index, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.06-0.94]; P = .040), and mPAP/CO (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03]; P = .003) during exercise predicted survival. Values for mPAP/CO predicted 3-year transplant-free survival with an area under the curve of 0.802 (95% CI, 0.66-0.95; P = .004). In this collective of patients with PAH or CTEPH, the pressure-flow relationship during exercise predicted transplant-free survival and correlated with established markers of disease severity and outcome. Right heart catheterization during exercise may provide important complementary prognostic information in the management of pulmonary hypertension. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Factors predicting survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients on non-invasive ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Calzada, Nuria; Prats Soro, Enric; Mateu Gomez, Lluis; Giro Bulta, Esther; Cordoba Izquierdo, Ana; Povedano Panades, Monica; Dorca Sargatal, Jordi; Farrero Muñoz, Eva

    2016-01-01

    Non invasive ventilation (NIV) improves quality of life and extends survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. However, few data exist about the factors related to survival. We intended to assess the predictive factors that influence survival in patients after NIV initiation. Patients who started NIV from 2000 to 2014 and were tolerant (compliance ≥ 4 hours) were included; demographic, disease related and respiratory variables at NIV initiation were analysed. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier test and Cox proportional hazard models. 213 patients were included with median survival from NIV initiation of 13.5 months. In univariate analysis, the identified risk factors for mortality were severity of bulbar involvement (HR 2), Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) % (HR 0.99) and ALSFRS-R (HR 0.97). Multivariate analysis showed that bulbar involvement (HR 1.92) and ALSFRS-R (HR 0.97) were independent predictive factors of survival in patients on NIV. In our study, the two prognostic factors in ALS patients following NIV were the severity of bulbar involvement and ALSFRS-R at the time on NIV initiation. A better assessment of bulbar involvement, including evaluation of the upper airway, and a careful titration on NIV are necessary to optimize treatment efficacy.

  16. Nomogram based overall survival prediction in stereotactic body radiotherapy for oligo-metastatic lung disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanadini-Lang, S; Rieber, J; Filippi, A R

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Radical local treatment of pulmonary metastases is practiced with increasing frequency due to acknowledgment and better understanding of oligo-metastatic disease. This study aimed to develop a nomogram predicting overall survival (OS) after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT......) for pulmonary metastases. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A multi-institutional database of 670 patients treated with SBRT for pulmonary metastases was used as training cohort. Cox regression analysis with bidirectional variable elimination was performed to identify factors to be included into the nomogram model...... to predict 2-year OS. The calibration rate of the nomogram was assessed by plotting the actual Kaplan-Meier 2-year OS against the nomogram predicted survival. The nomogram was externally validated using two separate monocentric databases of 145 and 92 patients treated with SBRT for pulmonary metastases...

  17. Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjie Peng

    Full Text Available To develop prognostic nomograms for predicting outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal cancers who do not receive preoperative treatment.A total of 883 patients with stage II-III rectal cancers were retrospectively collected from a single institution. Survival analyses were performed to assess each variable for overall survival (OS, local recurrence (LR and distant metastases (DM. Cox models were performed to develop a predictive model for each endpoint. The performance of model prediction was validated by cross validation and on an independent group of patients.The 5-year LR, DM and OS rates were 22.3%, 32.7% and 63.8%, respectively. Two prognostic nomograms were successfully developed to predict 5-year OS and DM-free survival rates, with c-index of 0.70 (95% CI = [0.66, 0.73] and 0.68 (95% CI = [0.64, 0.72] on the original dataset, and 0.76 (95% CI = [0.67, 0.86] and 0.73 (95% CI = [0.63, 0.83] on the validation dataset, respectively. Factors in our models included age, gender, carcinoembryonic antigen value, tumor location, T stage, N stage, metastatic lymph nodes ratio, adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy. Predicted by our nomogram, substantial variability in terms of 5-year OS and DM-free survival was observed within each TNM stage category.The prognostic nomograms integrated demographic and clinicopathological factors to account for tumor and patient heterogeneity, and thereby provided a more individualized outcome prognostication. Our individualized prediction nomograms could help patients with preoperatively under-staged rectal cancer about their postoperative treatment strategies and follow-up protocols.

  18. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Milenkaya

    Full Text Available Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch, a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous

  19. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of

  20. Expression of nerve growth factor and heme oxygenase-1 predict poor survival of breast carcinoma patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noh, Sang Jae; Chung, Myoung Ja; Moon, Woo Sung; Kang, Myoung Jae; Jang, Kyu Yun; Bae, Jun Sang; Jamiyandorj, Urangoo; Park, Ho Sung; Kwon, Keun Sang; Jung, Sung Hoo; Youn, Hyun Jo; Lee, Ho; Park, Byung-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Nerve growth factor (NGF) is a neurotrophin and has been suggested to induce heme oxygenase-1 (HO1) expression. Although the role of HO1 in tumorigenesis remains controversial, recent evidence suggests NGF and HO1 as tumor-progressing factors. However, the correlative role of NGF and HO1 and their prognostic impact in breast carcinoma is unknown. We investigated the expression and prognostic significance of the expression of NGF and HO1 in 145 cases of breast carcinoma. Immunohistochemical expression of NGF and HO1 was observed in 31% and 49% of breast carcinoma, respectively. The expression of NGF and HO1 significantly associated with each other, and both have a significant association with histologic grade, HER2 expression, and latent distant metastasis. The expression of NGF and HO1 predicted shorter overall survival of breast carcinoma by univariate and multivariate analysis. NGF expression was an independent prognostic indicator for relapse-free survival by multivariate analysis. The combined expression pattern of NGF and HO1 was also an independent prognostic indicator of overall survival and relapse-free survival. The patients with tumors expressing NGF had the shortest survival and the patients with tumor, which did not express NGF or HO1 showed the longest survival time. This study has demonstrated that individual expression of NGF or HO1, and the combined NGF/HO1 expression pattern could be prognostic indicators for breast carcinoma patients

  1. High serum uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Cai-Feng; Feng, Pin-Ning; Yao, Zhen-Rong; Yu, Xue-Gao; Lin, Wen-Bin; Qian, Yuan-Min; Guo, Yun-Miao; Li, Lai-Sheng; Liu, Min

    2017-10-01

    Uric acid is a product of purine metabolism. Recently, uric acid has gained much attraction in cancer. In this study, we aim to investigate the clinicopathological and prognostic significance of serum uric acid concentration in breast cancer patients. A total of 443 female patients with histopathologically diagnosed breast cancer were included. After a mean follow-up time of 56months, survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method. To further evaluate the prognostic significance of uric acid concentrations, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied. Of the clinicopathological parameters, uric acid concentration was associated with age, body mass index, ER status and PR status. Univariate analysis identified that patients with increased uric acid concentration had a significantly inferior overall survival (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.15-3.94, p=0.016). In multivariate analysis, we found that high uric acid concentration is an independent prognostic factor predicting death, but insufficient to predict local relapse or distant metastasis. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that high uric acid concentration is related to the poor overall survival (p=0.013). High uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer, and might serve as a potential marker for appropriate management of breast cancer patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hyun Jin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seungbong [Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Young Seok, E-mail: ysk@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Joo-Hyun [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hak Jae [Department of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Weon [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Won [Department of Radiation Oncology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Byoung-Gie [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jin Hee [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Cha, Soon Do [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juree [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cheil General Hospital and Women' s Healthcare Center, Kwandong University, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki-Heon [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Cheil General Hospital and Women' s Healthcare Center, Kwandong University, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Mee Sun [Department of Radiation Oncology, Chonnam National University Hwasun Hospital, Chonnam National University Medical School, Jeollanam-do (Korea, Republic of); and others

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis.

  3. Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyun Jin; Han, Seungbong; Kim, Young Seok; Nam, Joo-Hyun; Kim, Hak Jae; Kim, Jae Weon; Park, Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Kim, Jin Hee; Cha, Soon Do; Kim, Juree; Lee, Ki-Heon; Yoon, Mee Sun

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis

  4. Development of a Summarized Health Index (SHI) for Use in Predicting Survival in Sea Turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tsung-Hsien; Chang, Chao-Chin; Cheng, I-Jiunn; Lin, Suen-Chuain

    2015-01-01

    Veterinary care plays an influential role in sea turtle rehabilitation, especially in endangered species. Physiological characteristics, hematological and plasma biochemistry profiles, are useful references for clinical management in animals, especially when animals are during the convalescence period. In this study, these factors associated with sea turtle surviving were analyzed. The blood samples were collected when sea turtles remained alive, and then animals were followed up for surviving status. The results indicated that significantly negative correlation was found between buoyancy disorders (BD) and sea turtle surviving (p turtles had significantly higher levels of aspartate aminotranspherase (AST), creatinine kinase (CK), creatinine and uric acid (UA) than surviving sea turtles (all p turtles and to improve veterinary care at rehabilitation facilities. PMID:25803431

  5. Survival prediction of trauma patients: a study on US National Trauma Data Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefrioui, I; Amadini, R; Mauro, J; El Fallahi, A; Gabbrielli, M

    2017-12-01

    Exceptional circumstances like major incidents or natural disasters may cause a huge number of victims that might not be immediately and simultaneously saved. In these cases it is important to define priorities avoiding to waste time and resources for not savable victims. Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology is the well-known and standard system usually used by practitioners to predict the survival probability of trauma patients. However, practitioners have noted that the accuracy of TRISS predictions is unacceptable especially for severely injured patients. Thus, alternative methods should be proposed. In this work we evaluate different approaches for predicting whether a patient will survive or not according to simple and easily measurable observations. We conducted a rigorous, comparative study based on the most important prediction techniques using real clinical data of the US National Trauma Data Bank. Empirical results show that well-known Machine Learning classifiers can outperform the TRISS methodology. Based on our findings, we can say that the best approach we evaluated is Random Forest: it has the best accuracy, the best area under the curve, and k-statistic, as well as the second-best sensitivity and specificity. It has also a good calibration curve. Furthermore, its performance monotonically increases as the dataset size grows, meaning that it can be very effective to exploit incoming knowledge. Considering the whole dataset, it is always better than TRISS. Finally, we implemented a new tool to compute the survival of victims. This will help medical practitioners to obtain a better accuracy than the TRISS tools. Random Forests may be a good candidate solution for improving the predictions on survival upon the standard TRISS methodology.

  6. Chest computed tomography scores are predictive of survival in patients with cystic fibrosis awaiting lung transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loeve, Martine; Hop, Wim C. J.; de Bruijne, Marleen

    2012-01-01

    Rationale: Up to a third of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients awaiting lung transplantation (LTX) die while waiting. Inclusion of computed tomography (CT) scores may improve survival prediction models such as the lung allocation score (LAS). Objectives: This study investigated the association between...... CT and survival in CF patients screened for LTX. Methods: Clinical data and chest CTs of 411 CF patients screened for LTX between 1990 and 2005 were collected from 17 centers. CTs were scored with the Severe Advanced Lung Disease (SALD) 4-category scoring system, including the components "infection....../inflammation" (INF), air trapping/hypoperfusion (AT), normal/hyperperfusion (NOR) and bulla/cysts (BUL). The volume of each component was computed using semi-automated software. Survival analysis included Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox-regression models. Measurements and main results: 366 (186 males) out of 411...

  7. Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: systematic review and validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Hui; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Lee, Soo-Chin; Taib, Nur Aishah; Tan, Ern-Yu; Chan, Patrick; Moons, Karel G M; Wong, Hoong-Seam; Goh, Jeremy; Rahim, Siti Mastura; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M

    2014-01-01

    In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic). We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s) and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48-0.53) to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.66). The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making.

  8. Pre-transplant levels of ficolin-3 are associated with kidney graft survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bay, Jakob T; Hein, Estrid; Sørensen, Søren S

    2013-01-01

    . 97 blood donors served as controls. Ficolin-3, C4 and C3 were measured in pre-transplant as well as in control serum samples. In controls, deposition of ficolin-3, C4, C3 and the terminal complement complex (TCC) was measured in an assay based on acetylated albumin as matrix. The ficolin-3 levels...... correlated with the serum levels of C4 and C3. The serum levels of ficolin-3 correlated with the deposition of ficolin-3, C4, C3 and TCC. Survival analyses showed that high pre-transplant serum levels of ficolin-3 were associated with decreased graft survival. These results suggest an important role...

  9. Visceral fat area predicts survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nault, Jean-Charles; Pigneur, Frédéric; Nelson, Anaïs Charles; Costentin, Charlotte; Tselikas, Lambros; Katsahian, Sandrine; Diao, Guoqing; Laurent, Alexis; Mallat, Ariane; Duvoux, Christophe; Luciani, Alain; Decaens, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Anthropometric measurements have been linked to resistance to anti-angiogenic treatment and survival. Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib or brivanib in 2008-2011 were included in this retrospective study. Anthropometric measurements were assessed using computed tomography and were correlated with drug toxicity, radiological response, and overall survival. 52 patients were included, Barcelona Clinic Liver Classification B (38%) and C (62%), with a mean value of α-fetoprotein of 29,554±85,654 ng/mL, with a median overall survival of 10.5 months. Sarcopenia was associated with a greater rate of hand-foot syndrome (P=0.049). Modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (mRECIST) and Choi criteria were significantly associated with survival, but RECIST criteria were not. An absence of hand-foot syndrome and high-visceral fat area were associated with progressive disease as assessed by RECIST and mRECIST criteria. In multivariate analyses, high visceral fat area (HR=3.6; P=0.002), low lean body mass (HR=2.4; P=0.015), and presence of hand-foot syndrome (HR=1.8; P=0.004) were significantly associated with overall survival. In time-dependent multivariate analyses; only high visceral fat area was associated with survival. Visceral fat area is associated with survival and seems to be a predictive marker for primary resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitors in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Validation of a Predictive Model for Survival in Metastatic Cancer Patients Attending an Outpatient Palliative Radiotherapy Clinic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chow, Edward; Abdolell, Mohamed; Panzarella, Tony; Harris, Kristin; Bezjak, Andrea; Warde, Padraig; Tannock, Ian

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To validate a predictive model for survival of patients attending a palliative radiotherapy clinic. Methods and Materials: We described previously a model that had good predictive value for survival of patients referred during 1999 (1). The six prognostic factors (primary cancer site, site of metastases, Karnofsky performance score, and the fatigue, appetite and shortness-of-breath items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale) identified in this training set were extracted from the prospective database for the year 2000. We generated a partial score whereby each prognostic factor was assigned a value proportional to its prognostic weight. The sum of the partial scores for each patient was used to construct a survival prediction score (SPS). Patients were also grouped according to the number of these risk factors (NRF) that they possessed. The probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months was generated. The models were evaluated for their ability to predict survival in this validation set with appropriate statistical tests. Results: The median survival and survival probabilities of the training and validation sets were similar when separated into three groups using both SPS and NRF methods. There was no statistical difference in the performance of the SPS and NRF methods in survival prediction. Conclusion: Both the SPS and NRF models for predicting survival in patients referred for palliative radiotherapy have been validated. The NRF model is preferred because it is simpler and avoids the need to remember the weightings among the prognostic factors

  11. Management of hepatocellular carcinoma: Predictive value of immunohistochemical markers for postoperative survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Zhao-Shan; Niu, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Mei

    2015-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for over 90% of all primary liver cancers. With an ever increasing incidence trend year by year, it has become the third most common cause of death from cancer worldwide. Hepatic resection is generally considered to be one of the most effective therapies for HCC patients, however, there is a high risk of recurrence in postoperative HCC. In clinical practice, there exists an urgent need for valid prognostic markers to identify patients with prognosis, hence the importance of studies on prognostic markers in improving the prediction of HCC prognosis. This review focuses on the most promising immunohistochemical prognostic markers in predicting the postoperative survival of HCC patients. PMID:25624992

  12. Prediction of survival to discharge following cardiopulmonary resuscitation using classification and regression trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebell, Mark H; Afonso, Anna M; Geocadin, Romergryko G

    2013-12-01

    To predict the likelihood that an inpatient who experiences cardiopulmonary arrest and undergoes cardiopulmonary resuscitation survives to discharge with good neurologic function or with mild deficits (Cerebral Performance Category score = 1). Classification and Regression Trees were used to develop branching algorithms that optimize the ability of a series of tests to correctly classify patients into two or more groups. Data from 2007 to 2008 (n = 38,092) were used to develop candidate Classification and Regression Trees models to predict the outcome of inpatient cardiopulmonary resuscitation episodes and data from 2009 (n = 14,435) to evaluate the accuracy of the models and judge the degree of over fitting. Both supervised and unsupervised approaches to model development were used. 366 hospitals participating in the Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation registry. Adult inpatients experiencing an index episode of cardiopulmonary arrest and undergoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the hospital. The five candidate models had between 8 and 21 nodes and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.718 to 0.766 in the derivation group and from 0.683 to 0.746 in the validation group. One of the supervised models had 14 nodes and classified 27.9% of patients as very unlikely to survive neurologically intact or with mild deficits (Tree models that predict survival to discharge with good neurologic function or with mild deficits following in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest. Models like this can assist physicians and patients who are considering do-not-resuscitate orders.

  13. Pleural Fluid Adenosine Deaminase (ADA) Predicts Survival in Patients with Malignant Pleural Effusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terra, Ricardo Mingarini; Antonangelo, Leila; Mariani, Alessandro Wasum; de Oliveira, Ricardo Lopes Moraes; Teixeira, Lisete Ribeiro; Pego-Fernandes, Paulo Manuel

    2016-08-01

    Systemic and local inflammations have been described as relevant prognostic factors in patients with cancer. However, parameters that stand for immune activity in the pleural space have not been tested as predictors of survival in patients with malignant pleural effusion. The objective of this study was to evaluate pleural lymphocytes and Adenosine Deaminase (ADA) as predictors of survival in patients with recurrent malignant pleural effusion. Retrospective cohort study includes patients who underwent pleurodesis for malignant pleural effusion in a tertiary center. Pleural fluid protein concentration, lactate dehydrogenase, glucose, oncotic cytology, cell count, and ADA were collected before pleurodesis and analyzed. Survival analysis was performed considering pleurodesis as time origin, and death as the event. Backwards stepwise Cox regression was used to find predictors of survival. 156 patients (out of 196 potentially eligible) were included in this study. Most were female (72 %) and breast cancer was the most common underlying malignancy (53 %). Pleural fluid ADA level was stratified as low (Pleural fluid cell count and lymphocytes number and percentage did not correlate with survival. Pleural fluid Adenosine Deaminase levels (pleural effusion who undergo pleurodesis.

  14. An Easy Tool to Predict Survival in Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy for Painful Bone Metastases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westhoff, Paulien G., E-mail: p.g.westhoff@umcutrecht.nl [Department of Radiotherapy, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Graeff, Alexander de [Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Monninkhof, Evelyn M. [Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Bollen, Laurens; Dijkstra, Sander P. [Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center (Netherlands); Steen-Banasik, Elzbieta M. van der [ARTI Institute for Radiation Oncology Arnhem, Arnhem (Netherlands); Vulpen, Marco van [Department of Radiotherapy, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Leer, Jan Willem H. [Department of Radiotherapy, University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Marijnen, Corrie A.; Linden, Yvette M. van der [Department of Clinical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands)

    2014-11-15

    Purpose: Patients with bone metastases have a widely varying survival. A reliable estimation of survival is needed for appropriate treatment strategies. Our goal was to assess the value of simple prognostic factors, namely, patient and tumor characteristics, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), and patient-reported scores of pain and quality of life, to predict survival in patients with painful bone metastases. Methods and Materials: In the Dutch Bone Metastasis Study, 1157 patients were treated with radiation therapy for painful bone metastases. At randomization, physicians determined the KPS; patients rated general health on a visual analogue scale (VAS-gh), valuation of life on a verbal rating scale (VRS-vl) and pain intensity. To assess the predictive value of the variables, we used multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses and C-statistics for discriminative value. Of the final model, calibration was assessed. External validation was performed on a dataset of 934 patients who were treated with radiation therapy for vertebral metastases. Results: Patients had mainly breast (39%), prostate (23%), or lung cancer (25%). After a maximum of 142 weeks' follow-up, 74% of patients had died. The best predictive model included sex, primary tumor, visceral metastases, KPS, VAS-gh, and VRS-vl (C-statistic = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.70-0.74). A reduced model, with only KPS and primary tumor, showed comparable discriminative capacity (C-statistic = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.69-0.72). External validation showed a C-statistic of 0.72 (95% CI = 0.70-0.73). Calibration of the derivation and the validation dataset showed underestimation of survival. Conclusion: In predicting survival in patients with painful bone metastases, KPS combined with primary tumor was comparable to a more complex model. Considering the amount of variables in complex models and the additional burden on patients, the simple model is preferred for daily use. In addition, a risk table for survival is

  15. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2018-05-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  16. Low expression of tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1) in glioblastoma predicts longer patient survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaberg-Jessen, Charlotte; Christensen, Karina; Offenberg, Hanne Kjær

    2009-01-01

    In colorectal cancer and breast cancer a high TIMP-1 level has been shown to correlate with a shorter overall patient survival and it has been suggested that TIMP-1 is involved in tumour invasion, proliferation and apoptosis in different types of cancers. TIMP-1 is known to be expressed in glioma...

  17. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  18. The impact of hemoglobin levels on patient and graft survival in renal transplant recipients.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Moore, Jason

    2008-08-27

    It remains unclear whether low hemoglobin levels are associated with increased mortality or graft loss after renal transplantation. This study assessed the relationship of hemoglobin levels with patient and graft survival in 3859 patients with functioning renal transplants more than 6-months posttransplantation.

  19. Pre- and Posttransplant IgA Anti-Fab Antibodies to Predict Long-term Kidney Graft Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirzargar, M A; Amirzargar, A; Basiri, A; Hajilooi, M; Roshanaei, G; Rajabi, G; Solgi, G

    2015-05-01

    Immunologic factors are reliable markers for allograft monitoring, because of their seminal role in rejection process. One of these factors is the immunoglobulin (Ig)A anti-Fab of the IgG antibody. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of pre- and posttransplant levels of this marker for kidney allograft function and survival. Sera samples of 59 living unrelated donor kidney recipients were collected before and after transplantation (days 7, 14, and 30) and investigated for IgA anti-Fab of IgG antibody levels using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in relation with allograft outcome. Among 59 patients, 15 cases (25%) including 10 with acute rejection and 5 with chronic rejection episodes showed graft failure during a mean of 5 years of follow-up. High posttransplant levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies were observed more frequently in patients with stable graft function (SGF) compared with patients with graft failure (P = 2 × 10(-6)). None of patients with acute or chronic rejection episodes had high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies at day 30 posttransplant compared with the SGF group (P = 10(-6) and P = .01, respectively). In addition, high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibody correlated with lesser concentration of serum creatinine at 1 month posttransplantation (P = .01). Five-year graft survival was associated with high levels of pre- and posttransplant IgA anti-Fab antibodies (P = .02 and P = .003, respectively). Our findings indicate the protective effect of higher levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies regarding to kidney allograft outcomes and long-term graft survival. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A NEW METHOD FOR PREDICTING SURVIVAL AND ESTIMATING UNCERTAINTY IN TRAUMA PATIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Schetinin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS is the current “gold” standard of screening patient’s condition for purposes of predicting survival probability. More than 40 years of TRISS practice revealed a number of problems, particularly, 1 unexplained fluctuation of predicted values caused by aggregation of screening tests, and 2 low accuracy of uncertainty intervals estimations. We developed a new method made it available for practitioners as a web calculator to reduce negative effect of factors given above. The method involves Bayesian methodology of statistical inference which, being computationally expensive, in theory provides most accurate predictions. We implemented and tested this approach on a data set including 571,148 patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB with 1–20 injuries. These patients were distributed over the following categories: (1 174,647 with 1 injury, (2 381,137 with 2–10 injuries, and (3 15,364 with 11–20 injuries. Survival rates in each category were 0.977, 0.953, and 0.831, respectively. The proposed method has improved prediction accuracy by 0.04%, 0.36%, and 3.64% (p-value <0.05 in the categories 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics showed a significant improvement of the new model calibration. The uncertainty 2σ intervals were reduced from 0.628 to 0.569 for patients of the second category and from 1.227 to 0.930 for patients of the third category, both with p-value <0.005. The new method shows the statistically significant improvement (p-value <0.05 in accuracy of predicting survival and estimating the uncertainty intervals. The largest improvement has been achieved for patients with 11–20 injuries. The method is available for practitioners as a web calculator http://www.traumacalc.org.

  1. A Novel Inflammation-Based Stage (I Stage Predicts Overall Survival of Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Pei Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have indicated that inflammation-based prognostic scores, such as the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS, modified GPS (mGPS and C-reactive protein/Albumin (CRP/Alb ratio, platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR, and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, have been reported to have prognostic value in patients with many types of cancer, including nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC. In this study, we proposed a novel inflammation-based stage, named I stage, for patients with NPC. A retrospective study of 409 newly-diagnosed cases of NPC was conducted. The prognostic factors (GPS, mGPS, CRP/Alb ratios, PLR, and NLR were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Then, according to the results of the multivariate analyses, we proposed a I stage combination of independent risk factors (CRP/Alb ratio and PLR. The I stage was calculated as follows: patients with high levels of CRP/Alb ratio (>0.03 and PLR (>146.2 were defined as I2; patients with one or no abnormal values were defined as I1 or I0, respectively. The relationships between the I stage and clinicopathological variables and overall survival (OS were evaluated. In addition, the discriminatory ability of the I stage with other inflammation-based prognostic scores was assessed using the AUCs (areas under the curves analyzed by receiver operating characteristics (ROC curves. The p value of <0.05 was considered to be significant. A total of 409 patients with NPC were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analyses revealed that only the CRP/Alb ratio (Hazard ratio (HR = 2.093; 95% Confidence interval (CI: 1.222–3.587; p = 0.007 and PLR (HR: 2.003; 95% CI: 1.177–3.410; p = 0.010 were independent prognostic factors in patients with NPC. The five-year overall survival rates for patients with I0, I1, and I2 were 92.1% ± 2.9%, 83.3% ± 2.6%, and 63.1% ± 4.6%, respectively (p < 0.001. The I stage had a higher area under the curve value (0.670 compared with other systemic inflammation

  2. Integration of RNA-Seq and RPPA data for survival time prediction in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Zerrin; Ercan, Muserref Ece

    2017-10-01

    Integration of several types of patient data in a computational framework can accelerate the identification of more reliable biomarkers, especially for prognostic purposes. This study aims to identify biomarkers that can successfully predict the potential survival time of a cancer patient by integrating the transcriptomic (RNA-Seq), proteomic (RPPA), and protein-protein interaction (PPI) data. The proposed method -RPBioNet- employs a random walk-based algorithm that works on a PPI network to identify a limited number of protein biomarkers. Later, the method uses gene expression measurements of the selected biomarkers to train a classifier for the survival time prediction of patients. RPBioNet was applied to classify kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) patients based on their survival time classes (long- or short-term). The RPBioNet method correctly identified the survival time classes of patients with between 66% and 78% average accuracy for three data sets. RPBioNet operates with only 20 to 50 biomarkers and can achieve on average 6% higher accuracy compared to the closest alternative method, which uses only RNA-Seq data in the biomarker selection. Further analysis of the most predictive biomarkers highlighted genes that are common for both cancer types, as they may be driver proteins responsible for cancer progression. The novelty of this study is the integration of a PPI network with mRNA and protein expression data to identify more accurate prognostic biomarkers that can be used for clinical purposes in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Radiomic features from the peritumoral brain parenchyma on treatment-naive multi-parametric MR imaging predict long versus short-term survival in glioblastoma multiforme: Preliminary findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasanna, Prateek; Patel, Jay; Madabhushi, Anant; Tiwari, Pallavi [Case Western Reserve University, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Cleveland, OH (United States); Partovi, Sasan [University Hospitals Case Medical Center, Case Western Reserve School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2017-10-15

    Despite 90 % of glioblastoma (GBM) recurrences occurring in the peritumoral brain zone (PBZ), its contribution in patient survival is poorly understood. The current study leverages computerized texture (i.e. radiomic) analysis to evaluate the efficacy of PBZ features from pre-operative MRI in predicting long- (>18 months) versus short-term (<7 months) survival in GBM. Sixty-five patient examinations (29 short-term, 36 long-term) with gadolinium-contrast T{sub 1w}, FLAIR and T{sub 2w} sequences from the Cancer Imaging Archive were employed. An expert manually segmented each study as: enhancing lesion, PBZ and tumour necrosis. 402 radiomic features (capturing co-occurrence, grey-level dependence and directional gradients) were obtained for each region. Evaluation was performed using threefold cross-validation, such that a subset of studies was used to select the most predictive features, and the remaining subset was used to evaluate their efficacy in predicting survival. A subset of ten radiomic 'peritumoral' MRI features, suggestive of intensity heterogeneity and textural patterns, was found to be predictive of survival (p = 1.47 x 10{sup -5}) as compared to features from enhancing tumour, necrotic regions and known clinical factors. Our preliminary analysis suggests that radiomic features from the PBZ on routine pre-operative MRI may be predictive of long- versus short-term survival in GBM. (orig.)

  4. Increased tumour ADC value during chemotherapy predicts improved survival in unresectable pancreatic cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishiofuku, Hideyuki; Tanaka, Toshihiro; Kichikawa, Kimihiko [Nara Medical University, Department of Radiology and IVR Center, Kashihara-city, Nara (Japan); Marugami, Nagaaki [Nara Medical University, Department of Endoscopy and Ultrasound, Kashihara-city, Nara (Japan); Sho, Masayuki; Akahori, Takahiro; Nakajima, Yoshiyuki [Nara Medical University, Department of Surgery, Kashihara-city, Nara (Japan)

    2016-06-15

    To investigate whether changes to the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of primary tumour in the early period after starting chemotherapy can predict progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) in patients with unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Subjects comprised 43 patients with histologically confirmed unresectable pancreatic cancer treated with first-line chemotherapy. Minimum ADC values in primary tumour were measured using the selected area ADC (sADC), which excluded cystic and necrotic areas and vessels, and the whole tumour ADC (wADC), which included whole tumour components. Relative changes in ADC were calculated from baseline to 4 weeks after initiation of chemotherapy. Relationships between ADC and both PFS and OS were modelled by Cox proportional hazards regression. Median PFS and OS were 6.1 and 11.0 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, sADC change was the strongest predictor of PFS (hazard ratio (HR), 4.5; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.7-11.9; p = 0.002). Multivariate Cox regression analysis for OS revealed sADC change and CRP as independent predictive markers, with sADC change as the strongest predictive biomarker (HR, 6.7; 95 % CI, 2.7-16.6; p = 0.001). Relative changes in sADC could provide a useful imaging biomarker to predict PFS and OS with chemotherapy for unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. (orig.)

  5. Lack of retroperitoneal lymphadenopathy predicts survival of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasselli, J R; Yang, J C; Linehan, W M; White, D E; Rosenberg, S A; Walther, M M

    2001-07-01

    Patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma have a reported 5-year survival of 0% to 20%. The ability to predict which patients would benefit from nephrectomy and interleukin-2 (IL-2) therapy before any treatment is initiated would be useful for maximizing the advantage of therapy and improving the quality of life. A retrospective analysis of the x-rays and charts of patients treated at the National Institutes of Health Surgery Branch between 1985 and 1996, who presented with metastatic renal cancer beyond the locoregional area and the primary tumor in place, was performed. Preoperative computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or radiological reports if no scans were available, were used to obtain an estimate of the volume of retroperitoneal lymphadenopathy. Operative notes were used to evaluate whether all lymphadenopathy was resected or disease left in situ, or if any extrarenal resection, including venacavotomy, was performed. Mean survival rate was calculated from the time of nephrectomy to the time of death or last clinical followup. If patients received IL-2 therapy, the response to treatment was recorded. Mean survival and response rate for IL-2 were compared among patients in 3 separate analyses. Patients without preoperatively detected lymphadenopathy were compared with those with at least 1 cm.3 retroperitoneal lymphadenopathy. Also, the patients who had detectable lymphadenopathy were divided into subgroups consisting of all resected, incompletely resected, unresectable and unknown if all disease was resected. Each subgroup was compared with patients without detectable preoperative lymphadenopathy. Patients with less than were compared to those with greater than 50 cm.3 retroperitoneal lymphadenopathy. Patients undergoing extrarenal resection at nephrectomy (complex surgery) due to direct invasion of the tumor into another intra-abdominal organ were compared with those undergoing radical nephrectomy alone, regardless of lymph node status

  6. Exploring gene expression signatures for predicting disease free survival after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikol Snoeren

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to identify and validate gene signatures that can predict disease free survival (DFS in patients undergoing a radical resection for their colorectal liver metastases (CRLM. METHODS: Tumor gene expression profiles were collected from 119 patients undergoing surgery for their CRLM in the Paul Brousse Hospital (France and the University Medical Center Utrecht (The Netherlands. Patients were divided into high and low risk groups. A randomly selected training set was used to find predictive gene signatures. The ability of these gene signatures to predict DFS was tested in an independent validation set comprising the remaining patients. Furthermore, 5 known clinical risk scores were tested in our complete patient cohort. RESULT: No gene signature was found that significantly predicted DFS in the validation set. In contrast, three out of five clinical risk scores were able to predict DFS in our patient cohort. CONCLUSIONS: No gene signature was found that could predict DFS in patients undergoing CRLM resection. Three out of five clinical risk scores were able to predict DFS in our patient cohort. These results emphasize the need for validating risk scores in independent patient groups and suggest improved designs for future studies.

  7. Synthetic dosage lethality in the human metabolic network is highly predictive of tumor growth and cancer patient survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megchelenbrink, Wout; Katzir, Rotem; Lu, Xiaowen; Ruppin, Eytan; Notebaart, Richard A

    2015-09-29

    Synthetic dosage lethality (SDL) denotes a genetic interaction between two genes whereby the underexpression of gene A combined with the overexpression of gene B is lethal. SDLs offer a promising way to kill cancer cells by inhibiting the activity of SDL partners of activated oncogenes in tumors, which are often difficult to target directly. As experimental genome-wide SDL screens are still scarce, here we introduce a network-level computational modeling framework that quantitatively predicts human SDLs in metabolism. For each enzyme pair (A, B) we systematically knock out the flux through A combined with a stepwise flux increase through B and search for pairs that reduce cellular growth more than when either enzyme is perturbed individually. The predictive signal of the emerging network of 12,000 SDLs is demonstrated in five different ways. (i) It can be successfully used to predict gene essentiality in shRNA cancer cell line screens. Moving to clinical tumors, we show that (ii) SDLs are significantly underrepresented in tumors. Furthermore, breast cancer tumors with SDLs active (iii) have smaller sizes and (iv) result in increased patient survival, indicating that activation of SDLs increases cancer vulnerability. Finally, (v) patient survival improves when multiple SDLs are present, pointing to a cumulative effect. This study lays the basis for quantitative identification of cancer SDLs in a model-based mechanistic manner. The approach presented can be used to identify SDLs in species and cell types in which "omics" data necessary for data-driven identification are missing.

  8. Scoring system predictive of survival for patients undergoing stereotactic body radiation therapy for liver tumors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kress Marie-Adele S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT is an emerging treatment option for liver tumors. This study evaluated outcomes after SBRT to identify prognostic variables and to develop a novel scoring system predictive of survival. Methods The medical records of 52 patients with a total of 85 liver lesions treated with SBRT from 2003 to 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Twenty-four patients had 1 lesion; 27 had 2 or more. Thirteen lesions were primary tumors; 72 were metastases. Fiducials were placed in all patients prior to SBRT. The median prescribed dose was 30 Gy (range, 16 – 50 Gy in a median of 3 fractions (range, 1–5. Results With median follow-up of 11.3 months, median overall survival (OS was 12.5 months, and 1 year OS was 50.8%. In 42 patients with radiographic follow up, 1 year local control was 74.8%. On univariate analysis, number of lesions (p = 0.0243 and active extralesional disease (p  Conclusions SBRT offers a safe and feasible treatment option for liver tumors. A prognostic scoring system based on the number of liver lesions, activity of extralesional disease, and KPS predicts survival following SBRT and can be used as a guide for prospective validation and ultimately for treatment decision-making.

  9. Depressive symptoms predict head and neck cancer survival: Examining plausible behavioral and biological pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmaro, Lauren A; Sephton, Sandra E; Siwik, Chelsea J; Phillips, Kala M; Rebholz, Whitney N; Kraemer, Helena C; Giese-Davis, Janine; Wilson, Liz; Bumpous, Jeffrey M; Cash, Elizabeth D

    2018-03-01

    Head and neck cancers are associated with high rates of depression, which may increase the risk for poorer immediate and long-term outcomes. Here it was hypothesized that greater depressive symptoms would predict earlier mortality, and behavioral (treatment interruption) and biological (treatment response) mediators were examined. Patients (n = 134) reported depressive symptomatology at treatment planning. Clinical data were reviewed at the 2-year follow-up. Greater depressive symptoms were associated with significantly shorter survival (hazard ratio, 0.868; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.819-0.921; P ratio, 0.865; 95% CI, 0.774-0.966; P = .010), and poorer treatment response (odds ratio, 0.879; 95% CI, 0.803-0.963; P = .005). The poorer treatment response partially explained the depression-survival relation. Other known prognostic indicators did not challenge these results. Depressive symptoms at the time of treatment planning predict overall 2-year mortality. Effects are partly influenced by the treatment response. Depression screening and intervention may be beneficial. Future studies should examine parallel biological pathways linking depression to cancer survival, including endocrine disruption and inflammation. Cancer 2018;124:1053-60. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

  10. Survival Prediction and Feature Selection in Patients with Breast Cancer Using Support Vector Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahrbanoo Goli

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Support Vector Regression (SVR model has been broadly used for response prediction. However, few researchers have used SVR for survival analysis. In this study, a new SVR model is proposed and SVR with different kernels and the traditional Cox model are trained. The models are compared based on different performance measures. We also select the best subset of features using three feature selection methods: combination of SVR and statistical tests, univariate feature selection based on concordance index, and recursive feature elimination. The evaluations are performed using available medical datasets and also a Breast Cancer (BC dataset consisting of 573 patients who visited the Oncology Clinic of Hamadan province in Iran. Results show that, for the BC dataset, survival time can be predicted more accurately by linear SVR than nonlinear SVR. Based on the three feature selection methods, metastasis status, progesterone receptor status, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status are the best features associated to survival. Also, according to the obtained results, performance of linear and nonlinear kernels is comparable. The proposed SVR model performs similar to or slightly better than other models. Also, SVR performs similar to or better than Cox when all features are included in model.

  11. Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Early Mucinous Breast Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfei Fu

    Full Text Available The features related to the prognosis of patients with mucinous breast cancer (MBC remain controversial. We aimed to explore the prognostic factors of MBC and develop a nomogram for predicting survival outcomes.The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER database was searched to identify 139611 women with resectable breast cancer from 1990 to 2007. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier methods. The 5-year and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS rates were calculated using the Life-Table method. Based on Cox models, a nomogram was constructed to predict the probabilities of CSS for an individual patient. The competing risk regression model was used to analyse the specific survival of patients with MBC.There were 136569 (97.82% infiltrative ductal cancer (IDC patients and 3042 (2.18% MBC patients. Patients with MBC had less lymph node involvement, a higher frequency of well-differentiated lesions, and more estrogen receptor (ER-positive tumors. Patients with MBC had significantly higher 5 and10-year CSS rates (98.23 and 96.03%, respectively than patients with IDC (91.44 and 85.48%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that MBC was an independent factor for better prognosis. As for patients with MBC, the event of death caused by another disease exceeded the event of death caused by breast cancer. A competing risk regression model further showed that lymph node involvement, poorly differentiated grade and advanced T-classification were independent factors of poor prognosis in patients with MBC. The Nomogram can accurately predict CSS with a high C-index (0.816. Risk scores developed from the nomogram can more accurately predict the prognosis of patients with MBC (C-index = 0.789 than the traditional TNM system (C-index = 0.704, P< 0.001.Patients with MBC have a better prognosis than patients with IDC. Nomograms could help clinicians make more informed decisions in clinical practice. The competing risk

  12. Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: systematic review and validation study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Miao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic. RESULTS: We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48-0.53 to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.66. CONCLUSION: The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making.

  13. Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

    2018-05-01

    The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of lung cancer patient survival via supervised machine learning classification techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Chip M; Abdollahi, Behnaz; Fuqua, Joshua D; de Carlo, Alexandra R; Bartholomai, James A; Balgemann, Rayeanne N; van Berkel, Victor H; Frieboes, Hermann B

    2017-12-01

    Outcomes for cancer patients have been previously estimated by applying various machine learning techniques to large datasets such as the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. In particular for lung cancer, it is not well understood which types of techniques would yield more predictive information, and which data attributes should be used in order to determine this information. In this study, a number of supervised learning techniques is applied to the SEER database to classify lung cancer patients in terms of survival, including linear regression, Decision Trees, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and a custom ensemble. Key data attributes in applying these methods include tumor grade, tumor size, gender, age, stage, and number of primaries, with the goal to enable comparison of predictive power between the various methods The prediction is treated like a continuous target, rather than a classification into categories, as a first step towards improving survival prediction. The results show that the predicted values agree with actual values for low to moderate survival times, which constitute the majority of the data. The best performing technique was the custom ensemble with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 15.05. The most influential model within the custom ensemble was GBM, while Decision Trees may be inapplicable as it had too few discrete outputs. The results further show that among the five individual models generated, the most accurate was GBM with an RMSE value of 15.32. Although SVM underperformed with an RMSE value of 15.82, statistical analysis singles the SVM as the only model that generated a distinctive output. The results of the models are consistent with a classical Cox proportional hazards model used as a reference technique. We conclude that application of these supervised learning techniques to lung cancer data in the SEER database may be of use to estimate patient survival time

  15. Living donor risk model for predicting kidney allograft and patient survival in an emerging economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Mirza Naqi; Wong, Germaine; Aziz, Tahir; Abbas, Khawar; Adibul Hasan Rizvi, S

    2018-03-01

    Living donor kidney is the main source of donor organs in low to middle income countries. We aimed to develop a living donor risk model that predicts graft and patient survival in an emerging economy. We used data from the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation (SIUT) database (n = 2283 recipients and n = 2283 living kidney donors, transplanted between 1993 and 2009) and conducted Cox proportional hazard analyses to develop a composite score that predicts graft and patient survivals. Donor factors age, creatinine clearance, nephron dose (estimated by donor/recipient body weight ratio) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) match were included in the living donor risk model. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for graft failures among those who received a kidney with living donor scores (reference to donor score of zero) of 1, 2, 3 and 4 were 1.14 (95%CI: 0.94-1.39), 1.24 (95%CI:1.03-1.49), 1.25 (95%CI:1.03-1.51) and 1.36 (95%CI:1.08-1.72) (P-value for trend =0.05). Similar findings were observed for patient survival. Similar to findings in high income countries, our study suggests that donor characteristics such as age, nephron dose, creatinine clearance and HLA match are important factors that determine the long-term patient and graft survival in low income countries. However, other crucial but undefined factors may play a role in determining the overall risk of graft failure and mortality in living kidney donor transplant recipients. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  16. ATM and p53 combined analysis predicts survival in glioblastoma multiforme patients: A clinicopathologic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Francesco Jacopo; Guadagno, Elia; Solari, Domenico; Borrelli, Giorgio; Pignatiello, Sara; Cappabianca, Paolo; Del Basso De Caro, Marialaura

    2018-06-01

    Glioblastoma is one of the most malignant cancers, with a distinguishing dismal prognosis: surgery followed by chemo- and radiotherapy represents the current standard of care, and chemo- and radioresistance underlie disease recurrence and short overall survival of patients suffering from this malignancy. ATM is a kinase activated by autophosphorylation upon DNA doublestrand breaks arising from errors during replication, byproducts of metabolism, chemotherapy or ionizing radiations; TP53 is one of the most popular tumor suppressor, with a preeminent role in DNA damage response and repair. To study the effects of the immunohistochemical expression of p-ATM and p53 in glioblastoma patients, 21 cases were retrospectively examined. In normal brain tissue, p-ATM was expressed only in neurons; conversely, in tumors cells, the protein showed a variable cytoplasmic expression (score: +,++,+++), with being completely undetectable in three cases. Statistical analysis revealed that high p-ATM score (++/+++) strongly correlated to shorter survival (P = 0.022). No difference in overall survival was registered between p53 normally expressed (NE) and overexpressed (OE) glioblastoma patients (P = 0.669). Survival analysis performed on the results from combined assessment of the two proteins showed that patients with NE p53 /low pATM score had longer overall survival than the NE p53/ high pATM score counterpart. Cox-regression analysis confirmed this finding (HR = 0.025; CI 95% = 0.002-0.284; P = 0.003). Our study outlined the immunohistochemical expression of p-ATM/p53 in glioblastomas and provided data on their possible prognostic/predictive of response role. A "non-oncogene addiction" to ATM for NEp53 glioblastoma could be postulated, strengthening the rationale for development of ATM inhibiting drugs. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Lean body mass predicts long-term survival in Chinese patients on peritoneal dialysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenq-Wen Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reduced lean body mass (LBM is one of the main indicators in malnutrition inflammation syndrome among patients on dialysis. However, the influence of LBM on peritoneal dialysis (PD patients' outcomes and the factors related to increasing LBM are seldom reported. METHODS: We enrolled 103 incident PD patients between 2002 and 2003, and followed them until December 2011. Clinical characteristics, PD-associated parameters, residual renal function, and serum chemistry profiles of each patient were collected at 1 month and 1 year after initiating PD. LBM was estimated using creatinine index corrected with body weight. Multiple linear regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox regression proportional hazard analysis were used to define independent variables and compare survival between groups. RESULTS: Using the median LBM value (70% for men and 64% for women, patients were divided into group 1 (n = 52; low LBM and group 2 (n = 51; high LBM. Group 1 patients had higher rates of peritonitis (1.6 vs. 1.1/100 patient months; p<0.05 and hospitalization (14.6 vs. 9.7/100 patient months; p<0.05. Group 1 patients also had shorter overall survival and technique survival (p<0.01. Each percentage point increase in LBM reduced the hazard ratio for mortality by 8% after adjustment for diabetes, age, sex, and body mass index (BMI. Changes in residual renal function and protein catabolic rate were independently associated with changes in LBM in the first year of PD. CONCLUSIONS: LBM serves as a good parameter in addition to BMI to predict the survival of patients on PD. Preserving residual renal function and increasing protein intake can increase LBM.

  18. Tumor Response and Survival Predicted by Post-Therapy FDG-PET/CT in Anal Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, Julie K.; Siegel, Barry A.; Dehdashti, Farrokh; Myerson, Robert J.; Fleshman, James W.; Grigsby, Perry W.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the response to therapy for anal carcinoma using post-therapy imaging with positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography and F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and to compare the metabolic response with patient outcome. Patients and Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of 53 consecutive patients with anal cancer. All patients underwent pre- and post-treatment whole-body FDG-PET/computed tomography. Patients had been treated with external beam radiotherapy and concurrent chemotherapy. Whole-body FDG-PET was performed 0.9-5.4 months (mean, 2.1) after therapy completion. Results: The post-therapy PET scan did not show any abnormal FDG uptake (complete metabolic response) in 44 patients. Persistent abnormal FDG uptake (partial metabolic response) was found in the anal tumor in 9 patients. The 2-year cause-specific survival rate was 94% for patients with a complete vs. 39% for patients with a partial metabolic response in the anal tumor (p = 0.0008). The 2-year progression-free survival rate was 95% for patients with a complete vs. 22% for patients with a partial metabolic response in the anal tumor (p < 0.0001). A Cox proportional hazards model of survival outcome indicated that a complete metabolic response was the most significant predictor of progression-free survival in our patient population (p = 0.0003). Conclusions: A partial metabolic response in the anal tumor as determined by post-therapy FDG-PET is predictive of significantly decreased progression-free and cause-specific survival after chemoradiotherapy for anal cancer

  19. Discrimination measures for survival outcomes: connection between the AUC and the predictiveness curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viallon, Vivian; Latouche, Aurélien

    2011-03-01

    Finding out biomarkers and building risk scores to predict the occurrence of survival outcomes is a major concern of clinical epidemiology, and so is the evaluation of prognostic models. In this paper, we are concerned with the estimation of the time-dependent AUC--area under the receiver-operating curve--which naturally extends standard AUC to the setting of survival outcomes and enables to evaluate the discriminative power of prognostic models. We establish a simple and useful relation between the predictiveness curve and the time-dependent AUC--AUC(t). This relation confirms that the predictiveness curve is the key concept for evaluating calibration and discrimination of prognostic models. It also highlights that accurate estimates of the conditional absolute risk function should yield accurate estimates for AUC(t). From this observation, we derive several estimators for AUC(t) relying on distinct estimators of the conditional absolute risk function. An empirical study was conducted to compare our estimators with the existing ones and assess the effect of model misspecification--when estimating the conditional absolute risk function--on the AUC(t) estimation. We further illustrate the methodology on the Mayo PBC and the VA lung cancer data sets. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

  1. Stomatin-like protein 2 is overexpressed in epithelial ovarian cancer and predicts poor patient survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Fei; Ding, Wen; He, Jie-Hua; Wang, Xiao-Jing; Ma, Ze-Biao; Li, Yan-Fang

    2015-01-01

    Stomatin-like protein 2 (SLP-2, also known as STOML2) is a stomatin homologue of uncertain function. SLP-2 overexpression has been suggested to be associated with cancer progression, resulting in adverse clinical outcomes in patients. Our study aim to investigate SLP-2 expression in epithelial ovarian cancer cells and its correlation with patient survival. SLP-2 mRNA and protein expression levels were analysed in five epithelial ovarian cancer cell lines and normal ovarian epithelial cells using real-time PCR and western blotting analysis. SLP-2 expression was investigated in eight matched-pair samples of epithelial ovarian cancer and adjacent noncancerous tissues from the same patients. Using immunohistochemistry, we examined the protein expression of paraffin-embedded specimens from 140 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer, 20 cases with borderline ovarian tumours, 20 cases with benign ovarian tumours, and 20 cases with normal ovarian tissues. Statistical analyses were applied to evaluate the clinicopathological significance of SLP-2 expression. SLP-2 mRNA and protein expression levels were significantly up-regulated in epithelial ovarian cancer cell lines and cancer tissues compared with normal ovarian epithelial cells and adjacent noncancerous ovarian tissues. Immunohistochemistry analysis revealed that the relative overexpression of SLP-2 was detected in 73.6 % (103/140) of the epithelial ovarian cancer specimens, 45.0 % (9/20) of the borderline ovarian specimens, 30.0 % (6/20) of the benign ovarian specimens and none of the normal ovarian specimens. SLP-2 protein expression in epithelial ovarian cancer was significantly correlated with the tumour stage (P < 0.001). Epithelial ovarian cancer patients with higher SLP-2 protein expression levels had shorter progress free survival and overall survival times compared to patients with lower SLP-2 protein expression levels. Multivariate analyses showed that SLP-2 expression levels were an independent prognostic

  2. Predicted levels of HIV drug resistance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cambiano, Valentina; Bertagnolio, Silvia; Jordan, Michael R

    2014-01-01

    -term effects. METHODS: The previously validated HIV Synthesis model was calibrated to South Africa. Resistance was modeled at the level of single mutations, transmission potential, persistence, and effect on drug activity. RESULTS: We estimate 652 000 people (90% uncertainty range: 543 000-744 000) are living...... are maintained, in 20 years' time HIV incidence is projected to have declined by 22% (95% confidence interval, CI -23 to -21%), and the number of people carrying NNRTI resistance to be 2.9-fold higher. If enhancements in diagnosis and retention in care occur, and ART is initiated at CD4 cell count less than 500......  cells/μl, HIV incidence is projected to decline by 36% (95% CI: -37 to -36%) and the number of people with NNRTI resistance to be 4.1-fold higher than currently. Prevalence of people with viral load more than 500  copies/ml carrying NRMV is not projected to differ markedly according to future ART...

  3. Effect of initial lactate level on short-term survival in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuba Sarıaydın, MD

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study evaluated whether serum lactate levels (SLL at admission in patients with cardiac arrest (CA can predict successful return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC or short-term survival, especially within the first 24 h. Materials and methods: This prospective, observational study was conducted in the emergency department (ED of a training and research hospital from April 2015 through February 2016. It included all patients older than 18 years who presented to the ED during the study period with non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA. The study measured two outcomes: whether ROSC was achieved and whether short-term survival was achieved. ROSC was defined as the presence of spontaneous circulation for the first hour after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR. Survival was defined as having survived for a minimum of 24 h after ROSC. Results: The study included 140 patients who were admitted to the ED with OHCA. ROSC was achieved in 55 patients (39.3%, and survival for 24 h following CA was achieved in 42 patients (30%. The mean SLL in the ROSC (+ and ROSC (- groups were 9.1 ± 3.2 mmol/L and 9.8 ± 2.9 mmol/L, respectively. The mean SLL in the survivor and non-survivor groups were 8.6 ± 2.9 mmol/L and 10 ± 3.1 mmol/L, respectively. These differences were not statistically significant (p = 0.1. A multivariate regression model assessing the factors that predicted both ROSC and 24-h survival showed the odds ratio (OR of initial SLL was 1.3 (95% CI: 1.05–1.6 and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9–1.3, respectively. Conclusions: This study showed that in OHCA patients, SLL on admission was not associated with increased ROSC achievement or 24-h survival. Keywords: Cardiac arrest, Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA, Return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC, Serum lactate, Emergency department

  4. Developing and Validating a Survival Prediction Model for NSCLC Patients Through Distributed Learning Across 3 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochems, Arthur; Deist, Timo M; El Naqa, Issam; Kessler, Marc; Mayo, Chuck; Reeves, Jackson; Jolly, Shruti; Matuszak, Martha; Ten Haken, Randall; van Soest, Johan; Oberije, Cary; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Price, Gareth; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

    2017-10-01

    Tools for survival prediction for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiation or radiation therapy are of limited quality. In this work, we developed a predictive model of survival at 2 years. The model is based on a large volume of historical patient data and serves as a proof of concept to demonstrate the distributed learning approach. Clinical data from 698 lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent with chemoradiation or radiation therapy alone, were collected and stored at 2 different cancer institutes (559 patients at Maastro clinic (Netherlands) and 139 at Michigan university [United States]). The model was further validated on 196 patients originating from The Christie (United Kingdon). A Bayesian network model was adapted for distributed learning (the animation can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDJFOxpwqEA). Two-year posttreatment survival was chosen as the endpoint. The Maastro clinic cohort data are publicly available at https://www.cancerdata.org/publication/developing-and-validating-survival-prediction-model-nsclc-patients-through-distributed, and the developed models can be found at www.predictcancer.org. Variables included in the final model were T and N category, age, performance status, and total tumor dose. The model has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 on the external validation set and an AUC of 0.62 on a 5-fold cross validation. A model based on the T and N category performed with an AUC of 0.47 on the validation set, significantly worse than our model (PLearning the model in a centralized or distributed fashion yields a minor difference on the probabilities of the conditional probability tables (0.6%); the discriminative performance of the models on the validation set is similar (P=.26). Distributed learning from federated databases allows learning of predictive models on data originating from multiple institutions while avoiding many of the data-sharing barriers. We believe that

  5. Combining Pathway Identification and Breast Cancer Survival Prediction via Screening-Network Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Iuliano

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is one of the most common invasive tumors causing high mortality among women. It is characterized by high heterogeneity regarding its biological and clinical characteristics. Several high-throughput assays have been used to collect genome-wide information for many patients in large collaborative studies. This knowledge has improved our understanding of its biology and led to new methods of diagnosing and treating the disease. In particular, system biology has become a valid approach to obtain better insights into breast cancer biological mechanisms. A crucial component of current research lies in identifying novel biomarkers that can be predictive for breast cancer patient prognosis on the basis of the molecular signature of the tumor sample. However, the high dimension and low sample size of data greatly increase the difficulty of cancer survival analysis demanding for the development of ad-hoc statistical methods. In this work, we propose novel screening-network methods that predict patient survival outcome by screening key survival-related genes and we assess the capability of the proposed approaches using METABRIC dataset. In particular, we first identify a subset of genes by using variable screening techniques on gene expression data. Then, we perform Cox regression analysis by incorporating network information associated with the selected subset of genes. The novelty of this work consists in the improved prediction of survival responses due to the different types of screenings (i.e., a biomedical-driven, data-driven and a combination of the two before building the network-penalized model. Indeed, the combination of the two screening approaches allows us to use the available biological knowledge on breast cancer and complement it with additional information emerging from the data used for the analysis. Moreover, we also illustrate how to extend the proposed approaches to integrate an additional omic layer, such as copy number

  6. Serum CA125 predicts extrauterine disease and survival in uterine carcinosarcoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gloria S.; Chiu, Lydia G.; Gebb, Juliana S.; Gunter, Marc J.; Sukumvanich, Paniti; Goldberg, Gary L.; Einstein, Mark H.

    2009-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of CA125 measurement in patients with uterine carcinosarcoma (CS). Methods Ninety-five consecutive patients treated for CS at a single institution were identified. All 54 patients who underwent preoperative CA125 measurement were included in the study. Data were abstracted from the medical records. Tests of association between preoperative CA125 and previously identified clinicopathologic prognostic factors were performed using Fisher’s exact test and Pearson chi-square test. To evaluate relationship of CA125 elevation and survival, a Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis, incorporating all of prognostic factors identified by univariate analysis. Results Preoperative CA125 was significantly associated with the presence of extrauterine disease (P<0.001), deep myometrial invasion (P<0.001), and serous histology of the epithelial component (P=0.005). Using univariate survival analysis, stage (HR=1.808, P=0.004), postoperative CA125 level (HR=9.855, P<0.001), and estrogen receptor positivity (HR=0.314, P=0.029) were significantly associated with survival. In the multivariate model, only postoperative CA125 level remained significantly associated with poor survival (HR=5.725, P=0.009). Conclusion Preoperative CA125 elevation is a marker of extrauterine disease and deep myometrial invasion in patients with uterine CS. Postoperative CA125 elevation is an independent prognostic factor for poor survival. These findings indicate that CA125 may be a clinically useful serum marker in the management of patients with CS. PMID:17935762

  7. Predictive markers of survival in HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative Tanzanian patients with extrapulmonary tuberculosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richter, C.; Koelemay, M. J.; Swai, A. B.; Perenboom, R.; Mwakyusa, D. H.; Oosting, J.

    1995-01-01

    Prediction of survival in Tanzanian patients with extrapulmonary tuberculosis (TB). To evaluate the prognostic value of clinical and laboratory parameters on survival in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositive and HIV seronegative patients with extrapulmonary TB. Over an 8-month period 192

  8. The inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score predicts survival in patients with cervical cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polterauer, Stephan; Grimm, Christoph; Seebacher, Veronika; Rahhal, Jasmin; Tempfer, Clemens; Reinthaller, Alexander; Hefler, Lukas

    2010-08-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is known to reflect the degree of tumor-associated cachexia and inflammation and is associated with survival in various malignancies. We investigated the value of the GPS in patients with cervical cancer. We included 244 consecutive patients with cervical cancer in our study. The pretherapeutic GPS was calculated as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein serum levels (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were allocated a score of 2, and patients with 1 or no abnormal value were allocated a score of 1 or 0, respectively. The association between GPS and survival was evaluated by univariate log-rank tests and multivariate Cox regression models. The GPS was correlated with clinicopathologic parameters as shown by performing chi2 tests. In univariate analyses, GPS (P GPS (P = 0.03, P = 0.04), FIGO stage (P = 0.006, P = 0.006), and lymph node involvement (P = 0.003, P = 0.002), but not patients' age (P = 0.5, P = 0.5), histological grade (P = 0.7, P = 0.6), and histological type (P = 0.4, P = 0.6) were associated with disease-free and overall survival, respectively. The GPS was associated with FIGO stage (P GPS can be used as an inflammation-based predictor for survival in patients with cervical cancer.

  9. Prediction With Dimension Reduction of Multiple Molecular Data Sources for Patient Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Kaplan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Predictive modeling from high-dimensional genomic data is often preceded by a dimension reduction step, such as principal component analysis (PCA. However, the application of PCA is not straightforward for multisource data, wherein multiple sources of ‘omics data measure different but related biological components. In this article, we use recent advances in the dimension reduction of multisource data for predictive modeling. In particular, we apply exploratory results from Joint and Individual Variation Explained (JIVE, an extension of PCA for multisource data, for prediction of differing response types. We conduct illustrative simulations to illustrate the practical advantages and interpretability of our approach. As an application example, we consider predicting survival for patients with glioblastoma multiforme from 3 data sources measuring messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and DNA methylation. We also introduce a method to estimate JIVE scores for new samples that were not used in the initial dimension reduction and study its theoretical properties; this method is implemented in the R package R.JIVE on CRAN, in the function jive.predict.

  10. Survival of rats subjected to acute anemia at different levels of erythrocyte 2,3-diphosphoglycerate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arturson, G; Westman, M

    1975-12-01

    An experimental procedure was worked out in which rats were subjected to an exchange of erythrocytes, followed by acute anemia by means of hemodilution. One group of rats received erythrocytes with a high concentration of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate (DPG), and the other group was given erythrocytes with a low DPG concentration. The survival rate was equal in the two groups. Irrespective of DPG concentration, the rats whose hemoglobin concentration reached the lowest level died. The rats that died were also more acidotic than the others. The results indicate that the hemoglobin concentration and the pH value were more important determinants for survival than the DPG concentrations.

  11. SU-E-T-427: Cell Surviving Fractions Derived From Tumor-Volume Variation During Radiotherapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Comparison with Predictive Assays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chvetsov, A; Schwartz, J; Mayr, N; Yartsev, S

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To show that a distribution of cell surviving fractions S 2 in a heterogeneous group of patients can be derived from tumor-volume variation curves during radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Methods: Our analysis was based on two data sets of tumor-volume variation curves for heterogeneous groups of 17 patients treated for nonsmall cell lung cancer with conventional dose fractionation. The data sets were obtained previously at two independent institutions by using megavoltage (MV) computed tomography (CT). Statistical distributions of cell surviving fractions S 2 and cell clearance half-lives of lethally damaged cells T1/2 have been reconstructed in each patient group by using a version of the two-level cell population tumor response model and a simulated annealing algorithm. The reconstructed statistical distributions of the cell surviving fractions have been compared to the distributions measured using predictive assays in vitro. Results: Non-small cell lung cancer presents certain difficulties for modeling surviving fractions using tumor-volume variation curves because of relatively large fractional hypoxic volume, low gradient of tumor-volume response, and possible uncertainties due to breathing motion. Despite these difficulties, cell surviving fractions S 2 for non-small cell lung cancer derived from tumor-volume variation measured at different institutions have similar probability density functions (PDFs) with mean values of 0.30 and 0.43 and standard deviations of 0.13 and 0.18, respectively. The PDFs for cell surviving fractions S 2 reconstructed from tumor volume variation agree with the PDF measured in vitro. Comparison of the reconstructed cell surviving fractions with patient survival data shows that the patient survival time decreases as the cell surviving fraction increases. Conclusion: The data obtained in this work suggests that the cell surviving fractions S 2 can be reconstructed from the tumor volume variation curves measured

  12. Early α-fetoprotein response predicts survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee SH

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sangheun Lee,1,* Beom Kyung Kim,2–5,* Seung Up Kim,2–5 Jun Yong Park,2–5 Do Young Kim,2–5 Sang Hoon Ahn,2–6 Kwang-Hyub Han2–6 1Department of Internal Medicine, International St Mary’s Hospital, Catholic Kwandong University, Incheon Metropolitan City, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Internal Medicine, 3Institute of Gastroenterology, 4Liver Cancer Special Clinic, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 5Liver Cirrhosis Clinical Research Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 6Brain Korea 21 Project for Medical Science, Seoul, Republic of Korea.   *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: It is not clear whether tumor marker responses can predict survival during sorafenib treatment in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. We investigated whether the α-fetoprotein (AFP response is associated with survival in patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the records of 126 patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib between 2007 and 2012. An AFP response was defined as >20% decrease from baseline. At 6–8 weeks after commencing sorafenib, AFP and radiological responses were assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors. Results: The median overall survival (OS and progression-free survival (PFS were 6.2 and 3.5 months, respectively. Of the study population, a partial response (PR was identified in 5 patients (4.0%, stable disease (SD in 65 patients (51.6%, and progressive disease (PD in 57 patients (44.4%, respectively. AFP non-response was an independent prognostic factor for poor OS (median 10.9 months for AFP response vs 5.2 months for AFP non-response, together with Child-Pugh B, tumor diameter ≥10 cm, and portal vein invasion (all P<0.05, and PFS (median 5.3 months for AFP response vs 2.9 months for AFP non-response, together with tumor diameter ≥10 cm and portal vein invasion (all P<0.05. SD or PR was more frequently found

  13. Efficacy of a composite biological age score to predict ten-year survival among Kansas and Nebraska Mennonites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttley, M; Crawford, M H

    1994-02-01

    In 1980 and 1981 Mennonite descendants of a group of Russian immigrants participated in a multidisciplinary study of biological aging. The Mennonites live in Goessel, Kansas, and Henderson, Nebraska. In 1991 the survival status of the participants was documented by each church secretary. Data are available for 1009 individuals, 177 of whom are now deceased. They ranged from 20 to 95 years in age when the data were collected. Biological ages were computed using a stepwise multiple regression procedure based on 38 variables previously identified as being related to survival, with chronological age as the dependent variable. Standardized residuals place participants in either a predicted-younger or a predicted-older group. The independence of the variables biological age and survival status is tested with the chi-square statistic. The significance of biological age differences between surviving and deceased Mennonites is determined by t test values. The two statistics provide consistent results. Predicted age group classification and survival status are related. The group of deceased participants is generally predicted to be older than the group of surviving participants, although neither statistic is significant for all subgroups of Mennonites. In most cases, however, individuals in the predicted-older groups are at a relatively higher risk of dying compared with those in the predicted-younger groups, although the increased risk is not always significant.

  14. Performance of an easy-to-use prediction model for renal patient survival: an external validation study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemke, Aline C; Heemskerk, Martin B A; van Diepen, Merel; Kramer, Anneke; de Meester, Johan; Heaf, James G; Abad Diez, José Maria; Torres Guinea, Marta; Finne, Patrik; Brunet, Philippe; Vikse, Bjørn E; Caskey, Fergus J; Traynor, Jamie P; Massy, Ziad A; Couchoud, Cécile; Groothoff, Jaap W; Nordio, Maurizio; Jager, Kitty J; Dekker, Friedo W; Hoitsma, Andries J

    2018-01-16

    An easy-to-use prediction model for long-term renal patient survival based on only four predictors [age, primary renal disease, sex and therapy at 90 days after the start of renal replacement therapy (RRT)] has been developed in The Netherlands. To assess the usability of this model for use in Europe, we externally validated the model in 10 European countries. Data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry were used. Ten countries that reported individual patient data to the registry on patients starting RRT in the period 1995-2005 were included. Patients prediction model was evaluated for the 10- (primary endpoint), 5- and 3-year survival predictions by assessing the calibration and discrimination outcomes. We used a data set of 136 304 patients from 10 countries. The calibration in the large and calibration plots for 10 deciles of predicted survival probabilities showed average differences of 1.5, 3.2 and 3.4% in observed versus predicted 10-, 5- and 3-year survival, with some small variation on the country level. The concordance index, indicating the discriminatory power of the model, was 0.71 in the complete ERA-EDTA Registry cohort and varied according to country level between 0.70 and 0.75. A prediction model for long-term renal patient survival developed in a single country, based on only four easily available variables, has a comparably adequate performance in a wide range of other European countries. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. γ-amino butyric acid (GABA) level as an overall survival risk factor in breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzozowska, Anna; Burdan, Franciszek; Duma, Dariusz; Solski, Janusz; Mazurkiewicz, Maria

    2017-09-21

    The γ-amino butyric acid (GABA) plays important role in the proliferation and migration of cancer cells. The aim of the study was to evaluate the level of GABA in breast cancer, in relation to clinical and epidemiological data. The study was conducted on 89 patients with breast cancer in stage I-II. GABA level was assessed using spectrofluorometric method in tumour homogenates. Immunoexpression of E-cadherin was evaluated histologically on paraffin fixed specimens. Overall and disease-free survival was assessed for a 15-year interval period. Median overall survival was significantly longer (127.2 months) in patients with a high level of GABA (>89.3 μg/1), compared with a group with a low level of the amino acid (106.4 months). Disease-free survival was insignificantly different - 99 and 109 months, respectively. A significantly longer overall survival (131.2 months) was seen among patients with a high level of GABA and positive E-cadherin immunoexpression, compared with a group characterized by a low level of GABA and lack of E-cadherin immunorectivity (98.1 months). The co-existence of negative immunoexpression of E-cadherin and low GABA concentration resulted in a six-fold increase in the risk of death (HR=6.03). GABA has a significant prognostic value in breast cancer. Co-existence of a low level of GABA and loss of E-cadherin immune-expression seems to be a new, independent, and negative prognostic marker of the neoplasm.

  16. Prediction of the survival and functional ability of severe stroke patients after ICU therapeutic intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aoun-Bacha Zeina

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study evaluated the benefits and impact of ICU therapeutic interventions on the survival and functional ability of severe cerebrovascular accident (CVA patients. Methods Sixty-two ICU patients suffering from severe ischemic/haemorrhagic stroke were evaluated for CVA severity using APACHE II and the Glasgow coma scale (GCS. Survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival tables and survival prediction factors were determined by Cox multivariate analysis. Functional ability was assessed using the stroke impact scale (SIS-16 and Karnofsky score. Risk factors, life support techniques and neurosurgical interventions were recorded. One year post-CVA dependency was investigated using multivariate analysis based on linear regression. Results The study cohort constituted 6% of all CVA (37.8% haemorrhagic/62.2% ischemic admissions. Patient mean(SD age was 65.8(12.3 years with a 1:1 male: female ratio. During the study period 16 patients had died within the ICU and seven in the year following hospital release. The mean(SD APACHE II score at hospital admission was 14.9(6.0 and ICU mean duration of stay was 11.2(15.4 days. Mechanical ventilation was required in 37.1% of cases. Risk ratios were; GCS at admission 0.8(0.14, (p = 0.024, APACHE II 1.11(0.11, (p = 0.05 and duration of mechanical ventilation 1.07(0.07, (p = 0.046. Linear coefficients were: type of CVA – haemorrhagic versus ischemic: -18.95(4.58 (p = 0.007, GCS at hospital admission: -6.83(1.08, (p = 0.001, and duration of hospital stay -0.38(0.14, (p = 0.40. Conclusion To ensure a better prognosis CVA patients require ICU therapeutic interventions. However, as we have shown, where tests can determine the worst affected patients with a poor vital and functional outcome should treatment be withheld?

  17. Location of subventricular zone recurrence and its radiation dose predicts survival in patients with glioblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberg, Brent D; Boreta, Lauren; Braunstein, Steve; Cha, Soonmee

    2018-07-01

    Glioblastomas are aggressive brain tumors that frequently recur in the subventricular zone (SVZ) despite maximal treatment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate imaging patterns of subventricular progression and impact of recurrent subventricular tumor involvement and radiation dose to patient outcome. Retrospective review of 50 patients diagnosed with glioblastoma and treated with surgery, radiation, and concurrent temozolomide from January 2012 to June 2013 was performed. Tumors were classified based on location, size, and cortical and subventricular zone involvement. Survival was compared based on recurrence type, distance from the initial enhancing tumor (local ≤ 2 cm, distant > 2 cm), and the radiation dose at the recurrence site. Progression of enhancing subventricular tumor was common at both local (58%) and distant (42%) sites. Median survival was better after local SVZ recurrence than distant SVZ recurrence (8.7 vs. 4.3 months, p = 0.04). Radiation doses at local SVZ recurrence sites recurrence averaged 57.0 ± 4.0 Gy compared to 44.7 ± 6.7 Gy at distant SVZ recurrence sites (p = 0.008). Distant subventricular progression at a site receiving ≤ 45 Gy predicted worse subsequent survival (p = 0.05). Glioblastomas frequently recurred in the subventricular zone, and patient survival was worse when enhancing tumor occurred at sites that received lower radiation doses. This recurrent disease may represent disease undertreated at the time of diagnosis, and further study is needed to determine if improved treatment strategies, such as including the subventricular zone in radiation fields, could improve clinical outcomes.

  18. Impact of County-Level Socioeconomic Status on Oropharyngeal Cancer Survival in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megwalu, Uchechukwu C

    2017-04-01

    Objective To evaluate the impact of county-level socioeconomic status on survival in patients with oropharyngeal cancer in the United States. Study Design Retrospective cohort study via a large population-based cancer database. Methods Data were extracted from the SEER 18 database (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) of the National Cancer Institute. The study cohort included 18,791 patients diagnosed with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma between 2004 and 2012. Results Patients residing in counties with a low socioeconomic status index had worse overall survival (56.5% vs 63.0%, P socioeconomic status index. On multivariable analysis, residing in a county with a low socioeconomic status index was associated with worse overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.14-1.29; P status, year of diagnosis, site, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage group, presence of distant metastasis, presence of unresectable tumor, histologic grade, surgical resection of primary site, treatment with neck dissection, and radiation therapy. Conclusion Residing in a county with a low socioeconomic status index is associated with worse survival. Further research is needed to elucidate the mechanism by which socioeconomic status affects survival in oropharyngeal cancer.

  19. Insurance and education predict long-term survival after orthotopic heart transplantation in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jeremiah G; Weiss, Eric S; Arnaoutakis, George J; Russell, Stuart D; Baumgartner, William A; Shah, Ashish S; Conte, John V

    2012-01-01

    Insurance status and education are known to affect health outcomes. However, their importance in orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) is unknown. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database provides a large cohort of OHT recipients in which to evaluate the effect of insurance and education on survival. UNOS data were retrospectively reviewed to identify adult primary OHT recipients (1997 to 2008). Patients were stratified by insurance at the time of transplantation (private/self-pay, Medicare, Medicaid, and other) and college education. All-cause mortality was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression incorporating 15 variables. Survival was modeled using the Kaplan-Meier method. Insurance for 20,676 patients was distributed as follows: private insurance/self-pay, 12,298 (59.5%); Medicare, 5,227 (25.3%); Medicaid, 2,320 (11.2%); and "other" insurance, 831 (4.0%). Educational levels were recorded for 15,735 patients (76.1% of cohort): 7,738 (49.2%) had a college degree. During 53 ± 41 months of follow-up, 6,125 patients (29.6%) died (6.7 deaths/100 patient-years). Survival differed by insurance and education. Medicare and Medicaid patients had 8.6% and 10.0% lower 10-year survival, respectively, than private/self-pay patients. College-educated patients had 7.0% higher 10-year survival. On multivariable analysis, college education decreased mortality risk by 11%. Medicare and Medicaid increased mortality risk by 18% and 33%, respectively (p ≤ 0.001). Our study examining insurance and education in a large cohort of OHT patients found that long-term mortality after OHT is higher in Medicare/Medicaid patients and in those without a college education. This study points to potential differences in the care of OHT patients based on education and insurance status. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Predicting the Performance and Survival of Islamic Banks in Malaysia to Achieve Growth Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazuin Sapuan Noraina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, the growth of the Islamic financial industry has increased tremendously in line with the Government’s ambition to make Malaysia as an international hub for Islamic finance since 2010. With the increasing number of foreign players in this industry plus with the increasing demand from domestic and foreign customers would further enhance the possibility for Malaysia to achieve this ambition. Currently, according to the Economic Transformation Programme, 2012 Malaysia is the world’s third largest market for Shariah assets that cover Islamic banks, Takaful, and sukuk. Malaysia as one of the main contributors to the global Islamic financial assets with Islamic assets in Malaysia grew by 23.8% in 2011 from RM350.8bil to RM434.6bil. The issues of predicting the performance and the survival of Islamic Banks in Malaysia become amongst crucial issues in academic research. By employing multi – layer perceptron neural network and pooled regression, we found that total assets/ size of the Islamic banks (GROWTH have high weightage and significantly influence in predicting the performance and the survival of Islamic banks in Malaysia. With the increasing number of Islamic banking institutions in Malaysia, this study can give insight on the sustainability of the Islamic banking system in Malaysia for the benefit of the investors, shareholder and depositors.

  1. Cell survival in carbon beams - comparison of amorphous track model predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grzanka, L.; Greilich, S.; Korcyl, M.

    Introduction: Predictions of the radiobiological effectiveness (RBE) play an essential role in treatment planning with heavy charged particles. Amorphous track models ( [1] , [2] , also referred to as track structure models) provide currently the most suitable description of cell survival under i....... Amorphous track modelling of luminescence detector efficiency in proton and carbon beams. 4.Tsuruoka C, Suzuki M, Kanai T, et al. LET and ion species dependence for cell killing in normal human skin fibroblasts. Radiat Res. 2005;163:494-500.......Introduction: Predictions of the radiobiological effectiveness (RBE) play an essential role in treatment planning with heavy charged particles. Amorphous track models ( [1] , [2] , also referred to as track structure models) provide currently the most suitable description of cell survival under ion....... [2] . In addition, a new approach based on microdosimetric distributions is presented and investigated [3] . Material and methods: A suitable software library embrasing the mentioned amorphous track models including numerous submodels with respect to delta-electron range models, radial dose...

  2. EMX2 gene expression predicts liver metastasis and survival in colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aykut, Berk; Ochs, Markus; Radhakrishnan, Praveen; Brill, Adrian; Höcker, Hermine; Schwarz, Sandra; Weissinger, Daniel; Kehm, Roland; Kulu, Yakup; Ulrich, Alexis; Schneider, Martin

    2017-08-22

    The Empty Spiracles Homeobox (EMX-) 2 gene has been associated with regulation of growth and differentiation in neuronal development. While recent studies provide evidence that EMX2 regulates tumorigenesis of various solid tumors, its role in colorectal cancer remains unknown. We aimed to assess the prognostic significance of EMX2 expression in stage III colorectal adenocarcinoma. Expression levels of EMX2 in human colorectal cancer and adjacent mucosa were assessed by qRT-PCR technology, and results were correlated with clinical and survival data. siRNA-mediated knockdown and adenoviral delivery-mediated overexpression of EMX2 were performed in order to investigate its effects on the migration of colorectal cancer cells in vitro. Compared to corresponding healthy mucosa, colorectal tumor samples had decreased EMX2 expression levels. Furthermore, EMX2 down-regulation in colorectal cancer tissue was associated with distant metastasis (M1) and impaired overall patient survival. In vitro knockdown of EMX2 resulted in increased tumor cell migration. Conversely, overexpression of EMX2 led to an inhibition of tumor cell migration. EMX2 is frequently down-regulated in human colorectal cancer, and down-regulation of EMX2 is a prognostic marker for disease-free and overall survival. EMX2 might thus represent a promising therapeutic target in colorectal cancer.

  3. Prognostic value of pre-treatment DCE-MRI parameters in predicting disease free and overall survival for breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pickles, Martin D.; Manton, David J.; Lowry, Martin; Turnbull, Lindsay W.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) data, both pharmacokinetic and empirical, can predict, prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, which patients are likely to have a shorter disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) interval following surgery. Traditional prognostic parameters were also included in the survival analysis. Consequently, a comparison of the prognostic value could be made between all the parameters studied. MR examinations were conducted on a 1.5 T system in 68 patients prior to the initiation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. DCE-MRI consisted of a fast spoiled gradient echo sequence acquired over 35 phases with a mean temporal resolution of 11.3 s. Both pharmacokinetic and empirical parameters were derived from the DCE-MRI data. Kaplan-Meier survival plots were generated for each parameter and group comparisons were made utilising logrank tests. The results from the 54 patients entered into the univariate survival analysis demonstrated that traditional prognostic parameters (tumour grade, hormonal status and size), empirical parameters (maximum enhancement index, enhancement index at 30 s, area under the curve and initial slope) and adjuvant therapies demonstrated significant differences in survival intervals. Further multivariate Cox regression survival analysis revealed that empirical enhancement parameters contributed the greatest prediction of both DFS and OS in the resulting models. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that in patients who exhibit high levels of perfusion and vessel permeability pre-treatment, evidenced by elevated empirical DCE-MRI parameters, a significantly lower disease free survival and overall survival can be expected.

  4. Prognostic value of pre-treatment DCE-MRI parameters in predicting disease free and overall survival for breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pickles, Martin D. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: m.pickles@hull.ac.uk; Manton, David J. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: d.j.manton@hull.ac.uk; Lowry, Martin [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: m.lowry@hull.ac.uk; Turnbull, Lindsay W. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.w.turnbull@hull.ac.uk

    2009-09-15

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) data, both pharmacokinetic and empirical, can predict, prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, which patients are likely to have a shorter disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) interval following surgery. Traditional prognostic parameters were also included in the survival analysis. Consequently, a comparison of the prognostic value could be made between all the parameters studied. MR examinations were conducted on a 1.5 T system in 68 patients prior to the initiation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. DCE-MRI consisted of a fast spoiled gradient echo sequence acquired over 35 phases with a mean temporal resolution of 11.3 s. Both pharmacokinetic and empirical parameters were derived from the DCE-MRI data. Kaplan-Meier survival plots were generated for each parameter and group comparisons were made utilising logrank tests. The results from the 54 patients entered into the univariate survival analysis demonstrated that traditional prognostic parameters (tumour grade, hormonal status and size), empirical parameters (maximum enhancement index, enhancement index at 30 s, area under the curve and initial slope) and adjuvant therapies demonstrated significant differences in survival intervals. Further multivariate Cox regression survival analysis revealed that empirical enhancement parameters contributed the greatest prediction of both DFS and OS in the resulting models. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that in patients who exhibit high levels of perfusion and vessel permeability pre-treatment, evidenced by elevated empirical DCE-MRI parameters, a significantly lower disease free survival and overall survival can be expected.

  5. Survival with 98% methemoglobin levels in a school-aged child during the "festival of colors".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar, Jhuma; Devangare, Shashikant; Dubey, N K

    2013-10-01

    Methemoglobin levels more than 70% have almost always been reported to have been fatal. The case of a 4-year-old boy who survived with methemoglobin levels of 98% is presented here. He was brought to the emergency department with complaints of vomiting, pain abdomen, and altered sensorium following accidental ingestion of paint thinner mixed with "Holi" colors. On examination, the child was in altered sensorium, cyanosed with saturations of 55%, who did not respond despite positive pressure ventilation with 100% oxygen. A possibility of toxic methemoglobinemia was considered and confirmed by finding of elevated methemoglobin levels of 98%. The child survived with definitive therapy with methylene blue and aggressive goal-directed approach.

  6. Evaluation and comparison of predictive individual-level general surrogates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2018-07-01

    An intermediate response measure that accurately predicts efficacy in a new setting at the individual level could be used both for prediction and personalized medical decisions. In this article, we define a predictive individual-level general surrogate (PIGS), which is an individual-level intermediate response that can be used to accurately predict individual efficacy in a new setting. While methods for evaluating trial-level general surrogates, which are predictors of trial-level efficacy, have been developed previously, few, if any, methods have been developed to evaluate individual-level general surrogates, and no methods have formalized the use of cross-validation to quantify the expected prediction error. Our proposed method uses existing methods of individual-level surrogate evaluation within a given clinical trial setting in combination with cross-validation over a set of clinical trials to evaluate surrogate quality and to estimate the absolute prediction error that is expected in a new trial setting when using a PIGS. Simulations show that our method performs well across a variety of scenarios. We use our method to evaluate and to compare candidate individual-level general surrogates over a set of multi-national trials of a pentavalent rotavirus vaccine.

  7. Plasma Riboflavin Level is Associated with Risk, Relapse, and Survival of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shan-Shan; Xu, Yi-Wei; Wu, Jian-Yi; Tan, Hua-Zhen; Wu, Zhi-Yong; Xue, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Jian-Jun; Li, En-Min; Xu, Li-Yan

    2017-01-01

    Riboflavin is an essential micronutrient for normal cellular activity, and deficiency may result in disease, such as cancer. We performed a case-control study to explore the association of riboflavin levels with risk and prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Plasma riboflavin levels, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), in ESCC patients were significantly lower than in those of healthy controls (7.04 ± 6.34 ng/ml vs. 9.32 ± 12.40 ng/ml; P riboflavin level and risk of ESCC (odds ratio (OR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.95-0.99, P =  0.02). The 5-year relapse-free and overall survival rates were significantly lower when riboflavin levels were ≤0.8 ng/ml than >0.8 ng/ml (relapse-free survival rate: 29.4% vs. 54.8%; overall survival rate: 28.6% vs. 55.6%). Plasma riboflavin level was an independent protective factor for both relapse-free (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.325, 95% CI = 0.161-0.657, P = 0.002) and overall survival of ESCC patients (HR = 0.382, 95% CI = 0.190-0.768, P = 0.007). In conclusion, plasma riboflavin levels are significantly related to risk and prognosis of ESCC patients, suggesting that moderate supplementation of riboflavin will decrease risk and prevent recurrence of ESCC and also improve prognosis of ESCC patients.

  8. Identification of potential prognostic microRNA biomarkers for predicting survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao X

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Xiwen Liao,1 Guangzhi Zhu,1 Rui Huang,2 Chengkun Yang,1 Xiangkun Wang,1 Ketuan Huang,1 Tingdong Yu,1 Chuangye Han,1 Hao Su,1 Tao Peng1 1Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China Background: The aim of the present study was to identify potential prognostic microRNA (miRNA biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC prognosis prediction based on a dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA. Materials and methods: A miRNA sequencing dataset and corresponding clinical parameters of HCC were obtained from TCGA. Genome-wide univariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen prognostic differentially expressed miRNAs (DEMs, and multivariable Cox regression analysis was used for prognostic signature construction. Comprehensive survival analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the prognostic signature. Results: Five miRNAs were regarded as prognostic DEMs and used for prognostic signature construction. The five-DEM prognostic signature performed well in prognosis prediction (adjusted P < 0.0001, adjusted hazard ratio = 2.249, 95% confidence interval =1.491–3.394, and time-dependent receiver–operating characteristic (ROC analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC of 0.765, 0.745, 0.725, and 0.687 for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year HCC overall survival (OS prediction, respectively. Comprehensive survival analysis of the prognostic signature suggests that the risk score model could serve as an independent factor of HCC and perform better in prognosis prediction than other traditional clinical indicators. Functional assessment of the target genes of hsa-mir-139 and hsa-mir-5003 indicates that they were significantly enriched in multiple biological processes and pathways, including cell proliferation and cell migration

  9. Low expression levels of hepsin and TMPRSS3 are associated with poor breast cancer survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelkonen, Mikko; Luostari, Kaisa; Tengström, Maria; Ahonen, Hermanni; Berdel, Bozena; Kataja, Vesa; Soini, Ylermi; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Mannermaa, Arto

    2015-01-01

    Hepsin, (also called TMPRSS1) and TMPRSS3 are type II transmembrane serine proteases (TTSPs) that are involved in cancer progression. TTSPs can remodel extracellular matrix (ECM) and, when dysregulated, promote tumor progression and metastasis by inducing defects in basement membrane and ECM molecules. This study investigated whether the gene and protein expression levels of these TTSPs were associated with breast cancer characteristics or survival. Immunohistochemical staining was used to evaluate hepsin levels in 372 breast cancer samples and TMPRSS3 levels in 373 samples. TMPRSS1 mRNA expression was determined in 125 invasive and 16 benign breast tumor samples, and TMPRSS3 mRNA expression was determined in 167 invasive and 23 benign breast tumor samples. The gene and protein expression levels were analyzed for associations with breast cancer-specific survival and clinicopathological parameters. Low TMPRSS1 and TMPRSS3 mRNA expression levels were independent prognostic factors for poor breast cancer survival during the 20-year follow-up (TMPRSS1, P = 0.023; HR, 2.065; 95 % CI, 1.106–3.856; TMPRSS3, P = 0.013; HR, 2.106; 95 % CI, 1.167–3.800). Low expression of the two genes at the mRNA and protein levels associated with poorer survival compared to high levels (log rank P-values 0.015–0.042). Low TMPRSS1 mRNA expression was also an independent marker of poor breast cancer prognosis in patients treated with radiotherapy (P = 0.034; HR, 2.344; 95 % CI, 1.065–5.160). Grade III tumors, large tumor size, and metastasis were associated with low mRNA and protein expression levels. The results suggest that the TTSPs hepsin and TMPRSS3 may have similar biological functions in the molecular pathology of breast cancer. Low mRNA and protein expression levels of the studied TTSPs were prognostic markers of poor survival in breast cancer. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-015-1440-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized

  10. Statistical models to predict flows at monthly level in Salvajina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Harold O

    1994-01-01

    It thinks about and models of lineal regression evaluate at monthly level that they allow to predict flows in Salvajina, with base in predictions variable, like the difference of pressure between Darwin and Tahiti, precipitation in Piendamo Cauca), temperature in Port Chicama (Peru) and pressure in Tahiti

  11. High CRP values predict poor survival in patients with penile cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steffens, Sandra; Kuczyk, Markus A; Schrader, Andres J; Al Ghazal, Andreas; Steinestel, Julie; Lehmann, Rieke; Wegener, Gerd; Schnoeller, Thomas J; Cronauer, Marcus V; Jentzmik, Florian; Schrader, Mark

    2013-01-01

    High levels of circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) have recently been linked to poor clinical outcome in various malignancies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of the preoperative serum CRP level in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the penis. This retrospective analysis included 79 penile cancer patients with information about their serum CRP value prior to surgery who underwent either radical or partial penectomy at two German high-volume centers (Ulm University Medical Center and Hannover Medical School) between 1990 and 2010. They had a median (mean) follow-up of 23 (32) months. A significantly elevated CRP level (>15 vs. ≤ 15 mg/l) was found more often in patients with an advanced tumor stage (≥pT2) (38.9 vs. 11.6%, p=0.007) and in those with nodal disease at diagnosis (50.0 vs. 14.6%, p=0.007). However, high CRP levels were not associated with tumor differentiation (p=0.53). The Kaplan-Meier 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate was 38.9% for patients with preoperative CRP levels above 15 mg/l and 84.3% for those with lower levels (p=0.001). Applying multivariate analysis and focusing on the subgroup of patients without metastasis at the time of penile surgery, both advanced local tumor stage (≥pT2; HR 8.8, p=0.041) and an elevated CRP value (>15 mg/l; HR 3.3, p=0.043) were identified as independent predictors of poor clinical outcome in patients with penile cancer. A high preoperative serum CRP level was associated with poor survival in patients with penile cancer. If larger patient populations confirm its prognostic value, its routine use could enable better risk stratification and risk-adjusted follow-up of patients with SCC of the penis

  12. Can survival prediction be improved by merging gene expression data sets?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haleh Yasrebi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: High-throughput gene expression profiling technologies generating a wealth of data, are increasingly used for characterization of tumor biopsies for clinical trials. By applying machine learning algorithms to such clinically documented data sets, one hopes to improve tumor diagnosis, prognosis, as well as prediction of treatment response. However, the limited number of patients enrolled in a single trial study limits the power of machine learning approaches due to over-fitting. One could partially overcome this limitation by merging data from different studies. Nevertheless, such data sets differ from each other with regard to technical biases, patient selection criteria and follow-up treatment. It is therefore not clear at all whether the advantage of increased sample size outweighs the disadvantage of higher heterogeneity of merged data sets. Here, we present a systematic study to answer this question specifically for breast cancer data sets. We use survival prediction based on Cox regression as an assay to measure the added value of merged data sets. RESULTS: Using time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC and hazard ratio as performance measures, we see in overall no significant improvement or deterioration of survival prediction with merged data sets as compared to individual data sets. This apparently was due to the fact that a few genes with strong prognostic power were not available on all microarray platforms and thus were not retained in the merged data sets. Surprisingly, we found that the overall best performance was achieved with a single-gene predictor consisting of CYB5D1. CONCLUSIONS: Merging did not deteriorate performance on average despite (a The diversity of microarray platforms used. (b The heterogeneity of patients cohorts. (c The heterogeneity of breast cancer disease. (d Substantial variation of time to death or relapse. (e The reduced number of genes in the merged data

  13. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. A 4-miRNA signature to predict survival in glioblastomas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermansen, Simon K; Sørensen, Mia D; Hansen, Anker

    2017-01-01

    multiple genes representing an additional level of gene regulation possibly more prognostically powerful than a single gene. The aim of the study was to identify a novel miRNA signature with the ability to separate patients into prognostic subgroups. Samples from 40 glioblastoma patients were included...... association to survival in univariate (HR 8.50; 95% CI 3.06-23.62; psignature of miR-107 and miR-331 (miR sum score), which were the only miRNAs available...

  15. Correlation of Creatine Kinase Levels with Clinical Features and Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongfei Tai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo evaluate serum creatine kinase (CK levels of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS patients and to explore the relationship between CK levels and the clinical characteristics and survival prognosis of ALS patients.MethodsWe analyzed the CK levels of 185 ALS patients who underwent long-term follow-up. The relationship between CK levels and clinical features including sex, age, disease duration, site of onset, body mass index (BMI, serum creatinine (Cr, and spontaneous electromyographic activity was analyzed by univariate analysis and multiple linear regression. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore whether CK levels were independently correlated with survival prognosis of ALS.ResultsBaseline serum CK was raised in 43% of participants. The median CK level was 160 U/L (range: 20–2,574 U/L, and 99% of patients had a baseline serum CK level less than 1,000 U/L. CK levels were significantly higher in male patients than in female patients [204 (169 versus 117 (111 U/L, p < 0.001] and in patients with limb onset ALS than with bulbar onset ALS (p < 0.001. CK levels were also correlated with serum Cr (p = 0.011 and the spontaneous potential score of electromyography (EMG (p = 0.037 but not correlated with age (p = 0.883, disease duration (p = 0.116, or BMI (p = 0.481. Log CK was independently correlated with survival of ALS patients (HR = 0.457, 95% confidence interval 0.221–0.947, p = 0.035 after adjusting for age, sex, site of onset, serum Cr, and BMI.ConclusionSerum CK levels of ALS patients were correlated with sex, site of onsite, serum Cr, and spontaneous activity in EMG. Serum CK could be an independent prognostic factor for survival of ALS patients.

  16. Cytotoxic T lymphocyte response to peptide vaccination predicts survival in stage III colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamura, Junichiro; Sugiura, Fumiaki; Sukegawa, Yasushi; Yoshioka, Yasumasa; Hida, Jin-Ichi; Hazama, Shoichi; Okuno, Kiyotaka

    2018-02-23

    We previously reported a phase I clinical trial of a peptide vaccine ring finger protein 43 (RNF43) and 34-kDa translocase of the outer mitochondrial membrane (TOMM34) combined with uracil-tegafur (UFT)/LV for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), and demonstrated the safety and immunological responsiveness of this combination therapy. In this study, we evaluated vaccination-induced immune responses to clarify the survival benefit of the combination therapy as adjuvant treatment. We enrolled 44 patients initially in an HLA-masked fashion. After the disclosure of HLA, 28 patients were in the HLA-A*2402-matched and 16 were in the unmatched group. In the HLA-matched group, 14 patients had positive CTL responses specific for the RNF43 and/or TOMM34 peptides after 2 cycles of treatment and 9 had negative responses; in the HLA-unmatched group, 10 CTL responses were positive and 2 negative. In the HLA-matched group, 3-year relapse-free survival (RFS) was significantly better in the positive CTL subgroup than in the negative-response subgroup. Patients with negative vaccination-induced CTL responses showed a significant trend towards shorter RFS than those with positive responses. Moreover, in the HLA-unmatched group, the positive CTL response subgroup showed an equally good 3-year RFS as in the HLA-matched group. In conclusion, vaccination-induced CTL response to peptide vaccination could predict survival in the adjuvant setting for stage III CRC. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

  17. A six-gene signature predicts survival of patients with localized pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeran K Stratford

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC remains a lethal disease. For patients with localized PDAC, surgery is the best option, but with a median survival of less than 2 years and a difficult and prolonged postoperative course for most, there is an urgent need to better identify patients who have the most aggressive disease.We analyzed the gene expression profiles of primary tumors from patients with localized compared to metastatic disease and identified a six-gene signature associated with metastatic disease. We evaluated the prognostic potential of this signature in a training set of 34 patients with localized and resected PDAC and selected a cut-point associated with outcome using X-tile. We then applied this cut-point to an independent test set of 67 patients with localized and resected PDAC and found that our signature was independently predictive of survival and superior to established clinical prognostic factors such as grade, tumor size, and nodal status, with a hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-10.0. Patients defined to be high-risk patients by the six-gene signature had a 1-year survival rate of 55% compared to 91% in the low-risk group.Our six-gene signature may be used to better stage PDAC patients and assist in the difficult treatment decisions of surgery and to select patients whose tumor biology may benefit most from neoadjuvant therapy. The use of this six-gene signature should be investigated in prospective patient cohorts, and if confirmed, in future PDAC clinical trials, its potential as a biomarker should be investigated. Genes in this signature, or the pathways that they fall into, may represent new therapeutic targets. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  18. Zone-size nonuniformity of 18F-FDG PET regional textural features predicts survival in patients with oropharyngeal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Nai-Ming; Fang, Yu-Hua Dean; Lee, Li-yu; Chang, Joseph Tung-Chieh; Tsan, Din-Li; Ng, Shu-Hang; Wang, Hung-Ming; Liao, Chun-Ta; Yang, Lan-Yan; Hsu, Ching-Han; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2015-03-01

    The question as to whether the regional textural features extracted from PET images predict prognosis in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) remains open. In this study, we investigated the prognostic impact of regional heterogeneity in patients with T3/T4 OPSCC. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 88 patients with T3 or T4 OPSCC who had completed primary therapy. Progression-free survival (PFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were the main outcome measures. In an exploratory analysis, a standardized uptake value of 2.5 (SUV 2.5) was taken as the cut-off value for the detection of tumour boundaries. A fixed threshold at 42 % of the maximum SUV (SUVmax 42 %) and an adaptive threshold method were then used for validation. Regional textural features were extracted from pretreatment (18)F-FDG PET/CT images using the grey-level run length encoding method and grey-level size zone matrix. The prognostic significance of PET textural features was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analysis. Zone-size nonuniformity (ZSNU) was identified as an independent predictor of PFS and DSS. Its prognostic impact was confirmed using both the SUVmax 42 % and the adaptive threshold segmentation methods. Based on (1) total lesion glycolysis, (2) uniformity (a local scale texture parameter), and (3) ZSNU, we devised a prognostic stratification system that allowed the identification of four distinct risk groups. The model combining the three prognostic parameters showed a higher predictive value than each variable alone. ZSNU is an independent predictor of outcome in patients with advanced T-stage OPSCC, and may improve their prognostic stratification.

  19. The Prognostic Nutritional Index Predicts Survival and Identifies Aggressiveness of Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eo, Wan Kyu; Chang, Hye Jung; Suh, Jungho; Ahn, Jin; Shin, Jeong; Hur, Joon-Young; Kim, Gou Young; Lee, Sookyung; Park, Sora; Lee, Sanghun

    2015-01-01

    Nutritional status has been associated with long-term outcomes in cancer patients. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is calculated by serum albumin concentration and absolute lymphocyte count, and it may be a surrogate biomarker for nutritional status and possibly predicts overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer. We evaluated the value of the PNI as a predictor for disease-free survival (DFS) in addition to OS in a cohort of 314 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative surgical resection. There were 77 patients in PNI-low group (PNI ≤ 47.3) and 237 patients in PNI-high group (PNI > 47.3). With a median follow-up of 36.5 mo, 5-yr DFS rates in PNI-low group and PNI-high group were 63.5% and 83.6% and 5-yr OS rates in PNI-low group and PNI-high group were 63.5% and 88.4%, respectively (DFS, P < 0.0001; OS, P < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, the only predictors for DFS were PNI, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, and perineural invasion, whereas the only predictors for OS were PNI, age, TNM stage, and perineural invasion. In addition, the PNI was independent of various inflammatory markers. In conclusion, the PNI is an independent prognostic factor for both DFS and OS, and provides additional prognostic information beyond pathologic parameters.

  20. Foxp3 overexpression in tumor cells predicts poor survival in oral squamous cell carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Jing-Jing; Zhao, Si-Jia; Fang, Juan; Ma, Da; Liu, Xiang-Qi; Chen, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Yun; Cheng, Bin; Wang, Zhi

    2016-01-01

    Forkhead Box P3 (Foxp3) is a regulatory T cells marker, and its expression correlates with prognosis in a number of malignancies. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship of Foxp3 expression with clinicopathological parameters and prognosis in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Foxp3 expression was examined using immunohistochemistry (IHC) in paraffin-embedded tissue samples from 273 OSCC patients. Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the associations between Foxp3 expression, the clinicopathologic characteristics and prognostic factors in OSCC. Foxp3 protein expression was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (P <0.01). Both univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that Foxp3 was an independent factor for both 5 years overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) (both P <0.01). Patients with Foxp3 overexpression had shorter OS and RFS. Our results determined that elevated Foxp3 protein expression was a predictive factor of outcome in OSCC and could act as a promising therapeutic target

  1. High Genomic Instability Predicts Survival in Metastatic High-Risk Neuroblastoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Stigliani

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to identify novel molecular prognostic markers to better predict relapse risk estimate for children with high-risk (HR metastatic neuroblastoma (NB. We performed genome- and/or transcriptome-wide analyses of 129 stage 4 HR NBs. Children older than 1 year of age were categorized as “short survivors” (dead of disease within 5 years from diagnosis and “long survivors” (alive with an overall survival time ≥ 5 years. We reported that patients with less than three segmental copy number aberrations in their tumor represent a molecularly defined subgroup with a high survival probability within the current HR group of patients. The complex genomic pattern is a prognostic marker independent of NB-associated chromosomal aberrations, i.e., MYCN amplification, 1p and 11q losses, and 17q gain. Integrative analysis of genomic and expression signatures demonstrated that fatal outcome is mainly associated with loss of cell cycle control and deregulation of Rho guanosine triphosphates (GTPases functioning in neuritogenesis. Tumors with MYCN amplification show a lower chromosome instability compared to MYCN single-copy NBs (P = .0008, dominated by 17q gain and 1p loss. Moreover, our results suggest that the MYCN amplification mainly drives disruption of neuronal differentiation and reduction of cell adhesion process involved in tumor invasion and metastasis. Further validation studies are warranted to establish this as a risk stratification for patients.

  2. Circulating HER2 DNA after trastuzumab treatment predicts survival and response in breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorensen, Boe S; Mortensen, Lise S; Andersen, Jørn

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Only a subset of breast cancer patients responds to the HER2 inhibitor trastuzumab, and methods to identify responders are needed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied 28 patients with metastatic breast cancer that had amplified human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) genes...... in their primary tumour and were treated with a combination of trastuzumab and chemotherapy. Plasma was collected and amplification of the HER2 gene in circulating DNA and the amounts of the extracellular domain (ECD) of HER2 were measured just before first treatment (n=28) and just before second treatment three...... response (p=0.02), and overall survival (p=0.05). HER2 ECD kinetics did not correlate to clinical data. CONCLUSION: We suggest that a decrease in HER2 gene amplification in the plasma predicts a more favourable response to trastuzumab....

  3. MAP17 and SGLT1 protein expression levels as prognostic markers for cervical tumor patient survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Perez

    Full Text Available MAP17 is a membrane-associated protein that is overexpressed in human tumors. Because the expression of MAP17 increases reactive oxygen species (ROS generation through SGLT1 in cancer cells, in the present work, we investigated whether MAP17 and/or SGLT1 might be markers for the activity of treatments involving oxidative stress, such as cisplatin or radiotherapy. First, we confirmed transcriptional alterations in genes involved in the oxidative stress induced by MAP17 expression in HeLa cervical tumor cells and found that Hela cells expressing MAP17 were more sensitive to therapies that induce ROS than were parental cells. Furthermore, MAP17 increased glucose uptake through SGLT receptors. We then analyzed MAP17 and SGLT1 expression levels in cervical tumors treated with cisplatin plus radiotherapy and correlated the expression levels with patient survival. MAP17 and SGLT1 were expressed in approximately 70% and 50% of cervical tumors of different types, respectively, but they were not expressed in adenoma tumors. Furthermore, there was a significant correlation between MAP17 and SGLT1 expression levels. High levels of either MAP17 or SGLT1 correlated with improved patient survival after treatment. However, the patients with high levels of both MAP17 and SGLT1 survived through the end of this study. Therefore, the combination of high MAP17 and SGLT1 levels is a marker for good prognosis in patients with cervical tumors after cisplatin plus radiotherapy treatment. These results also suggest that the use of MAP17 and SGLT1 markers may identify patients who are likely to exhibit a better response to treatments that boost oxidative stress in other cancer types.

  4. Serum level of soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor is a strong and independent predictor of survival in human immunodeficiency virus infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sidenius, N; Sier, C.F.M.; Ullum, H

    2000-01-01

    levels of soluble uPAR (suPAR) in patients with advanced HIV-1 disease and whether the serum level of suPAR is predictive of clinical outcome. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, the level of suPAR was measured retrospectively in serum samples from 314 patients with HIV-1 infection. By Kaplan......-Meier and Cox regression analyses, the serum suPAR levels were correlated to survival with AIDS-related death as the end point. High levels of serum suPAR (greater than median) were associated with poor overall survival, and Kaplan-Meier analysis on patients stratified by suPAR level demonstrated a continuous...

  5. Loss of NOTCH2 Positively Predicts Survival in Subgroups of Human Glial Brain Tumors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulay, Jean-Louis; Miserez, André R.; Zweifel, Christian; Sivasankaran, Balasubramanian; Kana, Veronika; Ghaffari, Anthony; Luyken, Cordelia; Sabel, Michael; Zerrouqi, Abdessamad; Wasner, Morten; Meir, Erwin Van; Tolnay, Markus; Reifenberger, Guido; Merlo, Adrian

    2007-01-01

    The structural complexity of chromosome 1p centromeric region has been an obstacle for fine mapping of tumor suppressor genes in this area. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) on chromosome 1p is associated with the longer survival of oligodendroglioma (OD) patients. To test the clinical relevance of 1p loss in glioblastomas (GBM) patients and identifiy the underlying tumor suppressor locus, we constructed a somatic deletion map on chromosome 1p in 26 OG and 118 GBM. Deletion hotspots at 4 microsatellite markers located at 1p36.3, 1p36.1, 1p22 and 1p11 defined 10 distinct haplotypes that were related to patient survival. We found that loss of 1p centromeric marker D1S2696 within NOTCH2 intron 12 was associated with favorable prognosis in OD (P = 0.0007) as well as in GBM (P = 0.0175), while 19q loss, concomitant with 1p LOH in OD, had no influence on GBM survival (P = 0.918). Assessment of the intra-chromosomal ratio between NOTCH2 and its 1q21 pericentric duplication N2N (N2/N2N-test) allowed delineation of a consistent centromeric breakpoint in OD that also contained a minimally lost area in GBM. OD and GBM showed distinct deletion patterns that converged to the NOTCH2 gene in both glioma subtypes. Moreover, the N2/N2N-test disclosed homozygous deletions of NOTCH2 in primary OD. The N2/N2N test distinguished OD from GBM with a specificity of 100% and a sensitivity of 97%. Combined assessment of NOTCH2 genetic markers D1S2696 and N2/N2N predicted 24-month survival with an accuracy (0.925) that is equivalent to histological classification combined with the D1S2696 status (0.954) and higher than current genetic evaluation by 1p/19q LOH (0.762). Our data propose NOTCH2 as a powerful new molecular test to detect prognostically favorable gliomas. PMID:17593975

  6. Loss of NOTCH2 positively predicts survival in subgroups of human glial brain tumors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Boulay

    Full Text Available The structural complexity of chromosome 1p centromeric region has been an obstacle for fine mapping of tumor suppressor genes in this area. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH on chromosome 1p is associated with the longer survival of oligodendroglioma (OD patients. To test the clinical relevance of 1p loss in glioblastomas (GBM patients and identifiy the underlying tumor suppressor locus, we constructed a somatic deletion map on chromosome 1p in 26 OG and 118 GBM. Deletion hotspots at 4 microsatellite markers located at 1p36.3, 1p36.1, 1p22 and 1p11 defined 10 distinct haplotypes that were related to patient survival. We found that loss of 1p centromeric marker D1S2696 within NOTCH2 intron 12 was associated with favorable prognosis in OD (P = 0.0007 as well as in GBM (P = 0.0175, while 19q loss, concomitant with 1p LOH in OD, had no influence on GBM survival (P = 0.918. Assessment of the intra-chromosomal ratio between NOTCH2 and its 1q21 pericentric duplication N2N (N2/N2N-test allowed delineation of a consistent centromeric breakpoint in OD that also contained a minimally lost area in GBM. OD and GBM showed distinct deletion patterns that converged to the NOTCH2 gene in both glioma subtypes. Moreover, the N2/N2N-test disclosed homozygous deletions of NOTCH2 in primary OD. The N2/N2N test distinguished OD from GBM with a specificity of 100% and a sensitivity of 97%. Combined assessment of NOTCH2 genetic markers D1S2696 and N2/N2N predicted 24-month survival with an accuracy (0.925 that is equivalent to histological classification combined with the D1S2696 status (0.954 and higher than current genetic evaluation by 1p/19q LOH (0.762. Our data propose NOTCH2 as a powerful new molecular test to detect prognostically favorable gliomas.

  7. Predictive modelling of noise level generated during sawing of rocks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an experimental and statistical study on noise level generated during of rock sawing by circular diamond sawblades. Influence of the operating variables and rock properties on the noise level are investigated and analysed. Statistical analyses are then employed and models are built for the prediction of ...

  8. The EPOS-CC Score: An Integration of Independent, Tumor- and Patient-Associated Risk Factors to Predict 5-years Overall Survival Following Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haga, Yoshio; Ikejiri, Koji; Wada, Yasuo; Ikenaga, Masakazu; Koike, Shoichiro; Nakamura, Seiji; Koseki, Masato

    2015-06-01

    Surgical audit is an essential task for the estimation of postoperative outcome and comparison of quality of care. Previous studies on surgical audits focused on short-term outcomes, such as postoperative mortality. We propose a surgical audit evaluating long-term outcome following colorectal cancer surgery. The predictive model for this audit is designated as 'Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Colorectal Cancer (EPOS-CC)'. Thirty-one tumor-related and physiological variables were prospectively collected in 889 patients undergoing elective resection for colorectal cancer between April 2005 and April 2007 in 16 Japanese hospitals. Postoperative overall survival was assessed over a 5-years period. The EPOS-CC score was established by selecting significant variables in a uni- and multivariate analysis and allocating a risk-adjusted multiplication factor to each variable using Cox regression analysis. For validation, the EPOS-CC score was compared to the predictive power of UICC stage. Inter-hospital variability of the observed-to-estimated 5-years survival was assessed to estimate quality of care. Among the 889 patients, 804 (90%) completed the 5-years follow-up. Univariate analysis displayed a significant correlation with 5-years survival for 14 physiological and nine tumor-related variables (p model for the prediction of survival. Risk-adjusted multiplication factors between 1.5 (distant metastasis) and 0.16 (serum sodium level) were accorded to the different variables. The predictive power of EPOS-CC was superior to the one of UICC stage; area under the curve 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90 for EPOS-CC, and 0.80, 0.76-0.83 for UICC stage, p < 0.001. Quality of care did not differ between hospitals. The EPOS-CC score including the independent variables age, performance status, serum sodium level, TNM stage, and lymphatic invasion is superior to the UICC stage in the prediction of 5-years overall survival. This higher accuracy might be explained by the

  9. Elevated C-reactive protein and hypoalbuminemia measured before resection of colorectal liver metastases predict postoperative survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

    2010-01-01

    Few studies have investigated whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score measured before resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM), can predict postoperative survival. Sixty-three consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for CRLM were investigated. GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (l) were allocated a GPS score of 2. Patients in whom only one of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS score of 1, and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. Significant factors concerning survival were the number of liver metastases (p = 0.0044), carcinoembryonic antigen level (p = 0.0191), GPS (p = 0.0029), grade of liver metastasis (p = 0.0033), and the number of lymph node metastases around the primary cancer (p = 0.0087). Multivariate analysis showed the two independent prognostic variables: liver metastases > or =3 (relative risk 2.83) and GPS1/2 (relative risk 3.07). GPS measured before operation and the number of liver metastases may be used as novel predictors of postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent curative resection for CRLM. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Impact of preoperative levels of hemoglobin and albumin on the survival of pancreatic carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Tovar, J; Martín-Pérez, E; Fernández-Contreras, M E; Reguero-Callejas, M E; Gamallo-Amat, C

    2010-11-01

    Pancreatic cancer presents the worst survival rates of all neoplasms. Surgical resection is the only potentially curative treatment, but is associated with high complication rates and outcome is bad even in those resected cases. Therefore, candidates amenable for resection must be carefully selected. Identification of prognostic factors preoperatively may help to improve the treatment of these patients, focusing on individually management based on the expected response. We perform a retrospective study of 59 patients with histological diagnosis of pancreatic carcinoma between 1999 and 2003, looking for possible prognostic factors. We analyze 59 patients, 32 males and 27 females with a mean age of 63.8 years. All the patients were operated, performing palliative surgery in 32% and tumoral resection in 68%, including pancreaticoduodenectomies in 51% and distal pancreatectomy in 17%. Median global survival was 14 months (Range 1-110).We observed that preoperative levels of hemoglobin under 12 g/dl (p = 0.0006) and serum albumina under 2.8 g/dl (p = 0.021) are associated with worse survival. Preoperative levels of hemoglobin and serum albumina may be prognostic indicators in pancreatic cancer.

  11. Evaluation of miR-182/miR-100 Ratio for Diagnosis and Survival Prediction in Bladder Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhanguo; Wu, Lili; Lin, Qi; Shi, Jing; Lin, Xiangyang; Shi, Liang

    2016-09-01

    Abnormal expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) plays an important role in development of several cancer types, including bladder cancer (BCa). However, the relationship between the ratio of miR-181/miR-100 and the prognosis of BCa has not been studied yet. The aim of this study was to evaluate the expression of miR-182, miR-100 and their clinical significance in BCa. Upregulation of miR-182 and down-regulation of miR-100 were validated in tissue specimens of 134 BCa cases compared with 148 normal bladder epithelia (NBE) specimens  using TaqMan-based real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). The diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of miR-182, miR-100, and miR-182/miR-100 ratio was also performed. miR-182 was upregulated in BCa and miR-100 was down-regulated in BCa compared with NBE (P ratio increased the diagnostic performance, yielding an AUC of 0.981 (97.01% sensitivity and 90.54% specificity). Moreover, miR-182/miR-100 ratio was associated with pT-stage, histological grade, BCa recurrence and carcinoma in situ (P analysis indicated that miR-182/miR-100 ratio was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (Hazard ratio: 7.142; 95% CI: 2.106 - 9.891; P analysis revealed that high-level of miR-182/miR-100 ratio was significantly correlated with shortened survival time for BCa patients (P ratio may serve as a novel promising biomarker for diagnosis and survival prediction in BCa. Further studies are needed to elucidate the role of miR-182/miR-100 ratio as a non‑invasive diagnostic tool for BCa.

  12. Late Release of Circulating Endothelial Cells and Endothelial Progenitor Cells after Chemotherapy Predicts Response and Survival in Cancer Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanine M. Roodhart

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We and others have previously demonstrated that the acute release of progenitor cells in response to chemotherapy actually reduces the efficacy of the chemotherapy. Here, we take these data further and investigate the clinical relevance of circulating endothelial (progenitor cells (CE(PCs and modulatory cytokines in patients after chemotherapy with relation to progression-free and overall survival (PFS/OS. Patients treated with various chemotherapeutics were included. Blood sampling was performed at baseline, 4 hours, and 7 and 21 days after chemotherapy. The mononuclear cell fraction was analyzed for CE(PC by FACS analysis. Plasma was analyzed for cytokines by ELISA or Luminex technique. CE(PCs were correlated with response and PFS/OS using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. We measured CE(PCs and cytokines in 71 patients. Only patients treated with paclitaxel showed an immediate increase in endothelial progenitor cell 4 hours after start of treatment. These immediate changes did not correlate with response or survival. After 7 and 21 days of chemotherapy, a large and consistent increase in CE(PC was found (P < .01, independent of the type of chemotherapy. Changes in CE(PC levels at day 7 correlated with an increase in tumor volume after three cycles of chemotherapy and predicted PFS/OS, regardless of the tumor type or chemotherapy. These findings indicate that the late release of CE(PC is a common phenomenon after chemotherapeutic treatment. The correlation with a clinical response and survival provides further support for the biologic relevance of these cells in patients' prognosis and stresses their possible use as a therapeutic target.

  13. Pretreatment Evaluation of Microcirculation by Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Survival in Primary Rectal Cancer Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeVries, Alexander Friedrich [Department of Radio-Oncology, Academic Teaching Hospital Feldkirch, Feldkirch (Austria); Piringer, Gudrun, E-mail: gudrun.piringer@hotmail.com [Department of Oncology, Wels-Grieskirchen Medical Hospital, Wels (Austria); Kremser, Christian; Judmaier, Werner [Department of Radiology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck (Austria); Saely, Christoph Hubert [Department of Medicine and Cardiology, Academic Teaching Hospital Feldkirch, Feldkirch (Austria); Lukas, Peter [Department of Radio-Oncology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck (Austria); Öfner, Dietmar [Department of Surgery, Paracelsus Medical University, Salzburg (Austria)

    2014-12-01

    Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of the perfusion index (PI), a microcirculatory parameter estimated from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability, to predict overall survival and disease-free survival in patients with primary rectal cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 83 patients with stage cT3 rectal cancer requiring neoadjuvant chemoradiation were investigated with DCE-MRI before start of therapy. Contrast-enhanced dynamic T{sub 1} mapping was obtained, and a simple data analysis strategy based on the calculation of the maximum slope of the tissue concentration–time curve divided by the maximum of the arterial input function was used as a measure of tumor microcirculation (PI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability. Results: In 39 patients (47.0%), T downstaging (ypT0-2) was observed. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 71 ± 29 months, 58 patients (69.9%) survived, and disease-free survival was achieved in 45 patients (54.2%). The mean PI (PImean) averaged over the group of nonresponders was significantly higher than for responders. Additionally, higher PImean in age- and gender-adjusted analyses was strongly predictive of therapy nonresponse. Most importantly, PImean strongly and significantly predicted disease-free survival (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.85 [ 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.54; P<.001)]; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.81 [1.30-2.51]; P<.001) as well as overall survival (unadjusted HR 1.42 [1.02-1.99], P=.040; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.43 [1.03-1.98]; P=.034). Conclusions: This analysis identifies PImean as a novel biomarker that is predictive for therapy response, disease-free survival, and overall survival in patients with primary locally advanced rectal cancer.

  14. Heart Rate Recovery After 6-Min Walk Test Predicts Survival in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swigris, Jeffrey J.; Swick, Jeff; Wamboldt, Frederick S.; Sprunger, David; du Bois, Roland; Fischer, Aryeh; Cosgrove, Gregory P.; Frankel, Stephen K.; Fernandez-Perez, Evans R.; Kervitsky, Dolly; Brown, Kevin K.

    2009-01-01

    Background: In patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), our objectives were to identify predictors of abnormal heart rate recovery (HRR) at 1 min after completion of a 6-min walk test (6MWT) [HRR1] and 2 min after completion of a 6MWT (HRR2), and to determine whether abnormal HRR predicts mortality. Methods: From 2003 to 2008, we identified IPF patients who had been evaluated at our center (n = 76) with a pulmonary physiologic examination and the 6MWT. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of abnormal HRR, the product-limit method to compare survival in the sample stratified on HRR, and Cox proportional hazards analysis to estimate the prognostic capability of abnormal HRR. Results: Cutoff values were 13 beats for abnormal HRR1 and 22 beats for HRR2. In a multivariable model, predictors of abnormal HRR1 were diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (odds ratio [OR], 0.4 per 10% predicted; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.7; p = 0.003), change in heart rate from baseline to maximum (OR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.8 to 0.97; p = 0.01), and having a right ventricular systolic pressure > 35 mm Hg as determined by transthoracic echocardiogram (OR, 12.7; 95% CI, 2.0 to 79.7; p = 0.01). Subjects with an abnormal HRR had significantly worse survival than subjects with a normal HRR (for HRR1, p = 0.0007 [log-rank test]; for HRR2, p = 0.03 [log-rank test]); these results held for the subgroup of 30 subjects without resting pulmonary hypertension (HRR1, p = 0.04 [log-rank test]). Among several candidate variables, abnormal HRR1 appeared to be the most potent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 5.2; 95% CI, 1.8 to 15.2; p = 0.004). Conclusion: Abnormal HRR after 6MWT predicts mortality in IPF patients. Research is needed to confirm these findings prospectively and to examine the mechanisms of HRR in IPF patients. PMID:19395579

  15. Lung Shunt Fraction prior to Yttrium-90 Radioembolization Predicts Survival in Patients with Neuroendocrine Liver Metastases: Single-Center Prospective Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ludwig, Johannes M.; Ambinder, Emily McIntosh; Ghodadra, Anish; Xing, Minzhi; Prajapati, Hasmukh J.; Kim, Hyun S.

    2016-01-01

    ObjectiveTo investigate survival outcomes following radioembolization with Yttrium-90 (Y90) for neuroendocrine tumor liver metastases (NETLMs). This study was designed to assess the efficacy of Y90 radioembolization and to evaluate lung shunt fraction (LSF) as a predictor for survival.MethodsA single-center, prospective study of 44 consecutive patients (median age: 58.5 years, 29.5 % male) diagnosed with pancreatic (52.3 %) or carcinoid (47.7 %) NETLMs from 2006 to 2012 who underwent Y90 radioembolization was performed. Patients’ baseline characteristics, including LSF and median overall survival (OS) from first Y90 radioembolization, were recorded and compared between patients with high (≥10 %) and low ( 1.2 mg (p = 0.016), and lack of pretreatment with octreotide (p = 0.01) as independent prognostic factors for poorer survival. Tumor type and total radiation dose did not predict survival.ConclusionsLSF ≥10 %, elevated bilirubin levels, and lack of pretreatment with octreotide were found to be independent prognostic factors for poorer survival in patients with NETLMs.

  16. SPARCL1 Expression Increases With Preoperative Radiation Therapy and Predicts Better Survival in Rectal Cancer Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotti, Angeliki, E-mail: angkotti@yahoo.gr; Holmqvist, Annica; Albertsson, Maria; Sun, Xiao-Feng, E-mail: xiao-feng.sun@liu.se

    2014-04-01

    Purpose: The secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine-like 1 (SPARCL1) is expressed in various normal tissues and many types of cancers. The function of SPARCL1 and its relationship to a patient's prognosis have been studied, whereas its relationship to radiation therapy (RT) is not known. Our aim was to investigate the expression of SPARCL1 in rectal cancer patients who participated in a clinical trial of preoperative RT. Methods and Materials: The study included 136 rectal cancer patients who were randomized to undergo preoperative RT and surgery (n=63) or surgery alone (n=73). The expression levels of SPARCL1 in normal mucosa (n=29), primary tumor (n=136), and lymph node metastasis (n=35) were determined by immunohistochemistry. Results: Tumors with RT had stronger SPARCL1 expression than tumors without RT (P=.003). In the RT group, strong SPARCL1 expression was related to better survival than weak expression in patients with stage III tumors, independent of sex, age, differentiation, and margin status (P=.022; RR = 18.128; 95% confidence interval, 1.512-217.413). No such relationship was found in the non-RT group (P=.224). Further analysis of interactions among SPARCL1 expression, RT, and survival showed statistical significance (P=.024). In patients with metastases who received RT, strong SPARCL1 expression was related to better survival compared to weak expression (P=.041) but not in the non-RT group (P=.569). Conclusions: SPARCL1 expression increases with RT and is related to better prognosis in rectal cancer patients with RT but not in patients without RT. This result may help us to select the patients best suited for preoperative RT.

  17. Prediction of SO{sub 2} levels using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belen M. Fernandez de Castro; Jose Manuel Prada Sanchez; Wenceslao Gonzalez Manteiga [and others] [University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago (Spain). Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Mathematics

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents an adaptation of the air pollution control help system in the neighbourhood of a coal-fired power plant in As Pontes (A Coruna, Spain), property of Endesa Generacion S.A., to the European Council Directive 1999/30/CE. This system contains a statistical prediction made half an hour before the measurement, and it helps the staff in the power plant prevent air quality level episodes. The prediction is made using neural network models. This prediction is compared with one made by a semiparametric model. 11 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  18. Bayesian Decision Trees for predicting survival of patients: a study on the US National Trauma Data Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schetinin, Vitaly; Jakaite, Livia; Jakaitis, Janis; Krzanowski, Wojtek

    2013-09-01

    Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models have been developed for predicting the survival probability of injured patients the majority of which obtain up to three injuries in six body regions. Practitioners have noted that the accuracy of TRISS predictions is unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries. Moreover, the TRISS method is incapable of providing accurate estimates of predictive density of survival, that are required for calculating confidence intervals. In this paper we propose Bayesian inference for estimating the desired predictive density. The inference is based on decision tree models which split data along explanatory variables, that makes these models interpretable. The proposed method has outperformed the TRISS method in terms of accuracy of prediction on the cases recorded in the US National Trauma Data Bank. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Soluble CD30 levels in recipients undergoing heart transplantation do not predict post-transplant outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ypsilantis, Efthymios; Key, Timothy; Bradley, J Andrew; Morgan, C Helen; Tsui, Stephen; Parameshwar, Jayan; Taylor, Craig J

    2009-11-01

    The pre-transplant serum level of soluble CD30 (sCD30), a proteolytic derivative of the lymphocyte surface receptor CD30, has been suggested as a biomarker for immunologic risk after organ transplantation. Pre-transplant serum sCD30 levels were determined in 200 consecutive adult heart transplant recipients undertaken at a single center. Transplant outcome (acute rejection in the first 12 months and patient survival up to 5 years post-transplant) was determined. Patients treated with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) prior to transplantation (n = 28) had higher levels of sCD30 (median 64 U/ml, range 12 to 112 U/ml) than those (n = 172) with no LVAD (median 36 U/ml, range 1 to 158 U/ml, p sCD30 levels were "low" (lower quartile, 58 U/ml, n = 50). Neither acute rejection nor recipient survival differed according to sCD30 level, with values (mean +/- SEM) of 0.30 +/- 0.04, 0.23 +/- 0.03 and 0.30 +/- 0.05 acute rejection episodes per 100 days in the low, intermediate and high groups, respectively, with recipient survival rates at 1 year of 77.7%, 84.9% and 86% and at 5 years of 73.6%, 67.9% and 75.8%, respectively. Pre-transplant serum sCD30 level does not predict acute allograft rejection or recipient survival after heart transplantation, although sCD30 levels are increased by LVAD, possibly as a result of biomaterial-host immune interaction.

  20. Impact of tumour volume on prediction of progression-free survival in sinonasal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennersdorf, Florian; Mauz, Paul-Stefan; Adam, Patrick; Welz, Stefan; Sievert, Anne; Ernemann, Ulrike; Bisdas, Sotirios

    2015-01-01

    The present study aimed to analyse potential prognostic factors, with emphasis on tumour volume, in determining progression free survival (PFS) for malignancies of the nasal cavity and the paranasal sinuses. Retrospective analysis of 106 patients with primary sinonasal malignancies treated and followed-up between March 2006 and October 2012. Possible predictive parameters for PFS were entered into univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis included age, sex, baseline tumour volume (based on MR imaging), histology type, TNM stage and prognostic groups according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis concerning the predictive value of tumour volume for recurrence was also conducted. The main histological subgroup consisted of epithelial tumours (77%). The majority of the patients (68%) showed advanced tumour burden (AJCC stage III–IV). Lymph node involvement was present in 18 cases. The mean tumour volume was 26.6 ± 21.2 cm 3 . The median PFS for all patients was 24.9 months (range: 2.5–84.5 months). The ROC curve analysis for the tumour volume showed 58.1% sensitivity and 75.4% specificity for predicting recurrence. Tumour volume, AJCC staging, T- and N- stage were significant predictors in the univariate analysis. Positive lymph node status and tumour volume remained significant and independent predictors in the multivariate analysis. Radiological tumour volume proofed to be a statistically reliable predictor of PFS. In the multivariate analysis, T-, N- and overall AJCC staging did not show significant prognostic value

  1. Pathologic complete response predicts long-term survival following preoperative radiation therapy for rectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Neelofur R.; Nagle, Deborah A.; Topham, Allan

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The finding of a pathologic complete response (pCR) after preoperative radiation therapy (RT) for rectal cancer is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint for treatment outcome. In most reported series, the pCR rate ranges from 10 to 25%. An underlying assumption is that pCR relates to favorable long-term patient outcome; however, such results are rarely reported. The purpose of this study was to determine the long-term outcome of patients having pCR's following preoperative RT and surgery for rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: Between 1978 and 1993, 49 of 315 patients (16%) were found to have pCR's following 40 to 65 Gy of preoperative RT for rectal cancer (median RT dose 55.8 Gy). Six complete responders also received concurrent 5-FU chemotherapy with RT. Follow-up time ranged from 7 to 224 months (median 52 months). Actuarial overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local control (LC) rates were calculated. Patient outcome was analyzed with respect to pretreatment clinical stage (mobile vs. tethered/fixed on digital exam), tumor level in the rectum as measured from the anorectal ring (0-3 cm vs. >3 cm), type of surgery (local excision, APR, or other), and use of concurrent chemotherapy vs. RT alone. Results: Prior to treatment, clinical stage tumor stage was 43% mobile ((21(49))) and 35% tethered/fixed ((17(49))). Twenty-two percent ((11(49))) did not have palpable tumor at presentation to our institution due to prior local excision of an invasive cancer. Tumor level in the rectum was 74% 0-3 cm, 16% >3 to 6 cm, and 10% > 6 cm. Surgical procedures were 12% APR, 24% LAR, 6% combined abdominal transsacral resection (CATS), 27% coloanal anastamosis, and 31% full thickness local excision. Overall, 2 of 49 patients (4%) developed a local tumor recurrence, and 4 of 49 (8%) developed distant metastases. The overall 5- and 10-year actuarial survival rates were 91% and 86%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year actuarial DFS rate was 85%, and the

  2. The Preoperative Controlling Nutritional Status Score Predicts Survival After Curative Surgery in Patients with Pathological Stage I Non-small Cell Lung Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoji, Fumihiro; Haratake, Naoki; Akamine, Takaki; Takamori, Shinkichi; Katsura, Masakazu; Takada, Kazuki; Toyokawa, Gouji; Okamoto, Tatsuro; Maehara, Yoshihiko

    2017-02-01

    The prognostic Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is used to evaluate immuno-nutritional conditions and is a predictive factor of postoperative survival in patients with digestive tract cancer. We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological features of patients with pathological stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) to identify predictors or prognostic factors of postoperative survival and to investigate the role of preoperative CONUT score in predicting survival. We selected 138 consecutive patients with pathological stage I NSCLC treated from August 2005 to August 2010. We measured their preoperative CONUT score in uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses of postoperative survival. A high CONUT score was positively associated with preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level (p=0.0100) and postoperative recurrence (p=0.0767). In multivariate analysis, the preoperative CONUT score [relative risk (RR)=6.058; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.068-113.941; p=0.0407), increasing age (RR=7.858; 95% CI=2.034-36.185; p=0.0029), and pleural invasion (RR=36.615; 95% CI=5.900-362.620; pcancer-specific survival (CS), and overall survival (OS), the group with high CONUT score had a significantly shorter RFS, CS, and OS than did the low-CONUT score group by log-rank test (p=0.0458, p=0.0104 and p=0.0096, respectively). The preoperative CONUT score is both a predictive and prognostic factor in patients with pathological stage I NSCLC. This immuno-nutritional score can indicate patients at high risk of postoperative recurrence and death. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

  3. Stimulated monocyte IL-6 secretion predicts survival of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olofsson Jan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was performed in order to determine whether monocyte in vitro function is associated with presence, stage and prognosis of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC disease. Methods Prospective study describing outcome, after at least five years observation, of patients treated for HNSCC disease in relation to their monocyte function. Sixty-five patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC and eighteen control patients were studied. Monocyte responsiveness was assessed by measuring levels of monocyte in vitro interleukin (IL-6 and monocyte chemotactic peptide (MCP-1 secretion after 24 hours of endotoxin stimulation in cultures supplied either with 20% autologous serum (AS or serum free medium (SFM. Survival, and if relevant, cause of death, was determined at least 5 years following primary diagnosis. Results All patients, as a group, had higher in vitro monocyte responsiveness in terms of IL-6 (AS (t = 2.03; p t = 2.49; p in vitro monocyte IL-6 endotoxin responsiveness under the SFM condition was associated with decreased survival rate (Hazard ratio (HR = 2.27; Confidence interval (CI = 1.05–4.88; p p p Conclusion In HNSCC patients, changed monocyte in vitro response to endotoxin, as measured by increased IL-6 (SFM and decreased MCP-1 (AS responsiveness, are negative prognostic factors.

  4. Growth and survival of Hippocampus erectus (Perry, 1810 juveniles fed on Artemia with different HUFA levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolás Vite-Garcia

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Survival during first months after birth is one of the bottlenecks for consolidating the seahorse farming industry. In this work, Artemia metanauplii enriched with two highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFA rich commercial emulsions with different docosahexaenoic acid (DHA levels (63% and 14% of total lipids, a vegetable oil with no DHA, and non-enriched Artemia as control, were used to feed 5-day-old juvenile Hippocampus erectus for 60 days. Enriched Artemia had similar levels of DHA (13% and 9%, despite great differences of DHA in the emulsions, with traces of DHA in non-enriched and vegetable oil enriched Artemia. More than 20% of DHA was found in 24 h starved juveniles fed both DHA-enriched treatments, similar to values in newly born juveniles, but those fed vegetable oil enriched Artemia or non-enriched Artemia had 5% of DHA. Total lipid and protein levels were similar in juveniles from the four treatments. The n-3/n-6 ratio was almost four-fold higher in seahorses fed DHA-enriched treatments compared to juveniles fed the non-enriched treatments. Survival of seahorses only partially reflected the DHA levels: it was lower in the vegetable oil treatment, similar in the seahorses fed Artemia with higher DHA and in the control treatment, and higher in seahorses fed the HUFA-enriched Artemia with lower DHA levels, although growth was similar in the two DHA-enriched Artemia treatments. Juvenile H. erectus seahorses perform better when they have at least 20% of DHA in their tissues, and these levels can be attained with no more than 14% of DHA in emulsions, eliminating the need for more expensive emulsions with higher DHA levels.

  5. Texture analysis for survival prediction of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Jayasree; Langdon-Embry, Liana; Escalon, Joanna G.; Allen, Peter J.; Lowery, Maeve A.; O'Reilly, Eileen M.; Do, Richard K. G.; Simpson, Amber L.

    2016-03-01

    Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States. The five-year survival rate for all stages is approximately 6%, and approximately 2% when presenting with distant disease.1 Only 10-20% of all patients present with resectable disease, but recurrence rates are high with only 5 to 15% remaining free of disease at 5 years. At this time, we are unable to distinguish between resectable PDAC patients with occult metastatic disease from those with potentially curable disease. Early classification of these tumor types may eventually lead to changes in initial management including the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiation, or in the choice of postoperative adjuvant treatments. Texture analysis is an emerging methodology in oncologic imaging for quantitatively assessing tumor heterogeneity that could potentially aid in the stratification of these patients. The present study derives several texture-based features from CT images of PDAC patients, acquired prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and analyzes their performance, individually as well as in combination, as prognostic markers. A fuzzy minimum redundancy maximum relevance method with leave-one-image-out technique is included to select discriminating features from the set of extracted features. With a naive Bayes classifier, the proposed method predicts the 5-year overall survival of PDAC patients prior to neoadjuvant therapy and achieves the best results in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0:858 and accuracy of 83:0% with four-fold cross-validation techniques.

  6. Novel Inflammation-Based Prognostic Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Li Su

    Full Text Available We developed a novel inflammation-based model (NPS, which consisted of a neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR and platelet count (PC, for assessing the prognostic role in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC.We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with metastatic UC who underwent systemic chemotherapy between January 1997 and December 2014 in Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. The defined cutoff values for the NLR and PC were 3.0 and 400 × 103/μL, respectively. Patients were scored 1 for either an elevated NLR or PC, and 0 otherwise. The NPS was calculated by summing the scores, ranging from 0 to 2. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS by using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors for OS.In total, 256 metastatic UC patients were enrolled. Univariate analysis revealed that patients with either a high NLR or PC had a significantly shorter survival rate compared with those with a low NLR (P = .001 or PC (P < .0001. The median OS in patients with NPS 0, 1, and 2 was 19.0, 12.8, and 9.3 months, respectively (P < .0001. Multivariate analysis revealed that NPS, along with the histologic variant, liver metastasis, age, and white cell count, was an independent factor facilitating OS prediction (hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.20-2.24, P = .002.The NLR and PC are independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with metastatic UC. The NPS model has excellent discriminant ability for OS.

  7. NanOx, a new model to predict cell survival in the context of particle therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, M.; Monini, C.; Testa, E.; Beuve, M.

    2017-02-01

    Particle therapy is increasingly attractive for the treatment of tumors and the number of facilities offering it is rising worldwide. Due to the well-known enhanced effectiveness of ions, it is of utmost importance to plan treatments with great care to ensure tumor killing and healthy tissues sparing. Hence, the accurate quantification of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of ions, used in the calculation of the biological dose, is critical. Nevertheless, the RBE is a complex function of many parameters and its determination requires modeling. The approaches currently used have allowed particle therapy to thrive, but still show some shortcomings. We present herein a short description of a new theoretical framework, NanOx, to calculate cell survival in the context of particle therapy. It gathers principles from existing approaches, while addressing some of their weaknesses. NanOx is a multiscale model that takes the stochastic nature of radiation at nanometric and micrometric scales fully into account, integrating also the chemical aspects of radiation-matter interaction. The latter are included in the model by means of a chemical specific energy, determined from the production of reactive chemical species induced by irradiation. Such a production represents the accumulation of oxidative stress and sublethal damage in the cell, potentially generating non-local lethal events in NanOx. The complementary local lethal events occur in a very localized region and can, alone, lead to cell death. Both these classes of events contribute to cell death. The comparison between experimental data and model predictions for the V79 cell line show a good agreement. In particular, the dependence of the typical shoulders of cell survival curves on linear energy transfer are well described, but also the effectiveness of different ions, including the overkill effect. These results required the adjustment of a number of parameters compatible with the application of the model in

  8. A Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis predicted serine protease is associated with acid stress and intraphagosomal survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abirami Kugadas

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThe ability to maintain intra-cellular pH is crucial for bacteria and other microbes to survive in diverse environments, particularly those that undergo fluctuations in pH. Mechanisms of acid resistance remain poorly understood in mycobacteria. Although studies investigating acid stress in M. tuberculosis are gaining traction, few center on Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP, the etiological agent of chronic enteritis in ruminants. We identified a MAP acid stress response network involved in macrophage infection. The central node of this network was MAP0403, a predicted serine protease that shared an 86% amino acid identity with MarP in M. tuberculosis. Previous studies confirmed MarP as a serine protease integral to maintaining intra-bacterial pH and survival in acid in vitro and in vivo. We show that MAP0403 is upregulated in infected macrophage and MAC-T cells and coincided with phagosome acidification. Treatment of mammalian cells with bafilomcyin A1, a potent inhibitor of phagosomal vATPases, diminished MAP0403 transcription. MAP0403 expression was also noted in acidic medium. A surrogate host, M. smegmatis mc2 155, was designed to express MAP0403 and when exposed to either macrophages or in vitro acid stress had increase bacterial cell viability, which corresponds to maintenance of intra-bacterial pH in acidic (pH = 5 conditions. These data suggest that MAP0403 may be the equivalent of MarP in MAP. Future studies confirming MAP0403 as a serine protease and exploring its structure and possible substrates are warranted.

  9. Pancreatic cancer circulating tumour cells express a cell motility gene signature that predicts survival after surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sergeant, Gregory; Eijsden, Rudy van; Roskams, Tania; Van Duppen, Victor; Topal, Baki

    2012-01-01

    (95% CI) = 1.366 (1.004 – 1.861)). Pancreatic CTC isolated from blood samples using FACS-based negative depletion, express a cell motility gene signature. Expression of this newly defined cell motility gene signature in the primary tumour can predict survival of patients undergoing surgical resection for pancreatic cancer. Clinical trials.gov NCT00495924

  10. Predicting survival for well-differentiated liposarcoma: the importance of tumor location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Caitlin A; Martinez, Steve R; Tseng, Warren H; Tamurian, Robert M; Bold, Richard J; Borys, Dariusz; Canter, Robert J

    2012-06-01

    Although well-differentiated liposarcoma (WD Lipo) is a low grade neoplasm with a negligible risk of metastatic disease, it can be locally aggressive. We hypothesized that survival for WD Lipo varies significantly based on tumor location. We identified 1266 patients with WD Lipo in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1988-2004. After excluding patients diagnosed by autopsy only, those lacking histologic confirmation, those lacking data on tumor location, and those with metastatic disease or unknown staging information, we arrived at a final study cohort of 1130 patients. Clinical, pathologic, and treatment variables were analyzed for their association with overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards multivariate models. Mean age was 61 y (± 14.6), 72.2% were white, and 60.4% were male. Eighty-one percent of patients were treated with surgical therapy alone, 4.6% were treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone, and 12.9% were treated with both surgery and RT. Extremity location was most common (41.6%), followed by trunk (29%), retroperitoneal/intra-abdominal (RIA, 21.6%), thorax (4.2%), and head/neck (3.6%). With a median follow-up of 45 mo, median OS was 115 mo (95% confidence interval [CI] 92-138 mo) for RIA tumors compared to not reached for other tumor locations (P = 0.002). On multivariate analysis, increasing age and RIA location both predicted worse OS and DSS while tumor size, race, sex, receipt of RT, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) stage did not. Tumor size became a significant predictor of worse DSS, but not OS, only when site, SEER stage, and extent of resection were removed from the multivariate model. Non-RIA locations, including extremity, experienced statistically similar OS, but 5-y DSS for trunk location was intermediate [92.3%, (95% CI 88.5%-96.1%) compared with 98.0% (95% CI, 96.2%-99.8%) for extremity and 86.6 (95% CI 81

  11. A nomogram to predict the survival of stage IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer after surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Qixing; Xia, Wenjie; Dong, Gaochao; Chen, Shuqi; Wang, Anpeng; Jin, Guangfu; Jiang, Feng; Xu, Lin

    2018-04-01

    Postoperative survival of patients with stage IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is highly heterogeneous. Here, we aimed to identify variables associated with postoperative survival and develop a tool for survival prediction. A retrospective review was performed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from January 2004 to December 2009. Significant variables were selected by use of the backward stepwise method. The nomogram was constructed with multivariable Cox regression. The model's performance was evaluated by concordance index and calibration curve. The model was validated via an independent cohort from the Jiangsu Cancer Hospital Lung Cancer Center. A total of 1809 patients with stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC who underwent surgery were included in the training cohort. Age, sex, grade, histology, tumor size, visceral pleural invasion, positive lymph nodes, lymph nodes examined, and surgery type (lobectomy vs pneumonectomy) were identified as significant prognostic variables using backward stepwise method. A nomogram was developed from the training cohort and validated using an independent Chinese cohort. The concordance index of the model was 0.673 (95% confidence interval, 0.654-0.692) in training cohort and 0.664 in validation cohort (95% confidence interval, 0.614-0.714). The calibration plot showed optimal consistency between nomogram predicted survival and observed survival. Survival analyses demonstrated significant differences between different subgroups stratified by prognostic scores. This nomogram provided the individual survival prediction for patients with stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC after surgery, which might benefit survival counseling for patients and clinicians, clinical trial design and follow-up, as well as postoperative strategy-making. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Multi-level predictive maintenance for multi-component systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Kim-Anh; Do, Phuc; Grall, Antoine

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a novel predictive maintenance policy with multi-level decision-making is proposed for multi-component system with complex structure. The main idea is to propose a decision-making process considered on two levels: system level and component one. The goal of the decision rules at the system level is to address if preventive maintenance actions are needed regarding the predictive reliability of the system. At component level the decision rules aim at identifying optimally a group of several components to be preventively maintained when preventive maintenance is trigged due to the system level decision. Selecting optimal components is based on a cost-based group improvement factor taking into account the predictive reliability of the components, the economic dependencies as well as the location of the components in the system. Moreover, a cost model is developed to find the optimal maintenance decision variables. A 14-component system is finally introduced to illustrate the use and the performance of the proposed predictive maintenance policy. Different sensitivity analysis are also investigated and discussed. Indeed, the proposed policy provides more flexibility in maintenance decision-making for complex structure systems, hence leading to significant profits in terms of maintenance cost when compared with existing policies. - Highlights: • A predictive maintenance policy for complex structure systems is proposed. • Multi-level decision process based on prognostic results is proposed. • A cost-based group importance measure is introduced for decision-making. • Both positive and negative dependencies between components are investigated. • A cost model and Monte Carlo simulation are developed for optimization process.

  13. A chip-level modeling approach for rail span collapse and survivability analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marvis, D.G.; Alexander, D.R.; Dinger, G.L.

    1989-01-01

    A general semiautomated analysis technique has been developed for analyzing rail span collapse and survivability of VLSI microcircuits in high ionizing dose rate radiation environments. Hierarchical macrocell modeling permits analyses at the chip level and interactive graphical postprocessing provides a rapid visualization of voltage, current and power distributions over an entire VLSIC. The technique is demonstrated for a 16k C MOS/SOI SRAM and a CMOS/SOS 8-bit multiplier. The authors also present an efficient method to treat memory arrays as well as a three-dimensional integration technique to compute sapphire photoconduction from the design layout

  14. Disease-free survival after hepatic resection in hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a prediction approach using artificial neural network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Hsien Ho

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A database for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients who had received hepatic resection was used to develop prediction models for 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival based on a set of clinical parameters for this patient group. METHODS: The three prediction models included an artificial neural network (ANN model, a logistic regression (LR model, and a decision tree (DT model. Data for 427, 354 and 297 HCC patients with histories of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival after hepatic resection, respectively, were extracted from the HCC patient database. From each of the three groups, 80% of the cases (342, 283 and 238 cases of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival, respectively were selected to provide training data for the prediction models. The remaining 20% of cases in each group (85, 71 and 59 cases in the three respective groups were assigned to validation groups for performance comparisons of the three models. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC was used as the performance index for evaluating the three models. CONCLUSIONS: The ANN model outperformed the LR and DT models in terms of prediction accuracy. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using ANNs in medical decision support systems for predicting disease-free survival based on clinical databases in HCC patients who have received hepatic resection.

  15. Disease-Free Survival after Hepatic Resection in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Prediction Approach Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Wen-Hsien; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Te-Wei; Chiu, Herng-Chia

    2012-01-01

    Background A database for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who had received hepatic resection was used to develop prediction models for 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival based on a set of clinical parameters for this patient group. Methods The three prediction models included an artificial neural network (ANN) model, a logistic regression (LR) model, and a decision tree (DT) model. Data for 427, 354 and 297 HCC patients with histories of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival after hepatic resection, respectively, were extracted from the HCC patient database. From each of the three groups, 80% of the cases (342, 283 and 238 cases of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival, respectively) were selected to provide training data for the prediction models. The remaining 20% of cases in each group (85, 71 and 59 cases in the three respective groups) were assigned to validation groups for performance comparisons of the three models. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was used as the performance index for evaluating the three models. Conclusions The ANN model outperformed the LR and DT models in terms of prediction accuracy. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using ANNs in medical decision support systems for predicting disease-free survival based on clinical databases in HCC patients who have received hepatic resection. PMID:22235270

  16. Historical Trust Levels Predict Current Welfare State Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergh, Andreas; Bjørnskov, Christian

    Using cross-sectional data for 76 countries, we apply instrumental variable techniques based on pronoun drop, temperature and monarchies to demonstrate that historical trust levels predict several indicators of current welfare state design, including universalism and high levels of regulatory...... freedom. We argue that high levels of trust and trustworthiness are necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for societies to develop successful universal welfare states that would otherwise be highly vulnerable to free riding and fraudulent behavior. Our results do not exclude positive feedback from...... welfare state universalism to individual trust, although we claim that the important causal link runs from historically trust levels to current welfare state design....

  17. Immune-mediated change in the expression of a sexual trait predicts offspring survival in the wild.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rémi Chargé

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The "good genes" theory of sexual selection postulates that females choose mates that will improve their offspring's fitness through the inheritance of paternal genes. In spite of the attention that this hypothesis has given rise to, the empirical evidence remains sparse, mostly because of the difficulties of controlling for the many environmental factors that may covary with both the paternal phenotype and offspring fitness. Here, we tested the hypothesis that offspring sired by males of a preferred phenotype should have better survival in an endangered bird, the houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata undulata. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We tested if natural and experimentally-induced variation in courtship display (following an inflammatory challenge predicts the survival of offspring. Chicks were produced by artificial insemination of females, ensuring that any effect on survival could only arise from the transfer of paternal genes. One hundred and twenty offspring were equipped with radio transmitters, and their survival monitored in the wild for a year. This allowed assessment of the potential benefits of paternal genes in a natural setting, where birds experience the whole range of environmental hazards. Although natural variation in sire courtship display did not predict offspring survival, sires that withstood the inflammatory insult and maintained their courtship activity sired offspring with the best survival upon release. CONCLUSIONS: This finding is relevant both to enlighten the debate on "good genes" sexual selection and the management of supportive breeding programs.

  18. Effects of natal departure and water level on survival of juvenile snail kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis) in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreitz, V.J.; Kitchens, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2004-01-01

    Survival rate from fledging to breeding, or juvenile survival, is an important source of variation in lifetime reproductive success in birds. Therefore, determining the relationship between juvenile survival and environmental factors is essential to understanding fitness consequences of reproduction in many populations. With increases in density of individuals and depletion of food resources, quality of most habitats deteriorates during the breeding season. Individuals respond by dispersing in search of food resources. Therefore, to understand the influence of environmental factors on juvenile survival, it is also necessary to know how natal dispersal influences survival of juveniles. We examined effects of various environmental factors and natal dispersal behavior on juvenile survival of endangered Snail Kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis) in central and southern Florida, using a generalized estimating equations (GEEs) approach and model selection criteria. Our results suggested yearly effects and an influence of age and monthly minimum hydrologic levels on juvenile Snail Kite survival. Yearly variation in juvenile survival has been reported by other studies, and other reproductive components of Snail Kites also exhibit such variation. Age differences in juvenile survival have also been seen in other species during the juvenile period. Our results demonstrate a positive relationship between water levels and juvenile survival. We suggest that this is not a direct linear relationship, such that higher water means higher juvenile survival. The juvenile period is concurrent with onset of the wet season in the ecosystem we studied, and rainfall increases as juveniles age. For management purposes, we believe that inferences suggesting increasing water levels during the fledging period will increase juvenile survival may have short-term benefits but lead to long-term declines in prey abundance and possibly wetland vegetation structure.

  19. Numerical analysis for prediction of fatigue crack opening level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hyeon Chang

    2004-01-01

    Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is the most popular numerical method to simulate plasticity-induced fatigue crack closure and can predict fatigue crack closure behavior. Finite element analysis under plane stress state using 4-node isoparametric elements is performed to investigate the detailed closure behavior of fatigue cracks and the numerical results are compared with experimental results. The mesh of constant size elements on the crack surface can not correctly predict the opening level for fatigue crack as shown in the previous works. The crack opening behavior for the size mesh with a linear change shows almost flat stress level after a crack tip has passed by the monotonic plastic zone. The prediction of crack opening level presents a good agreement with published experimental data regardless of stress ratios, which are using the mesh of the elements that are in proportion to the reversed plastic zone size considering the opening stress intensity factors. Numerical interpolation results of finite element analysis can precisely predict the crack opening level. This method shows a good agreement with the experimental data regardless of the stress ratios and kinds of materials

  20. [The survival prediction model of advanced gallbladder cancer based on Bayesian network: a multi-institutional study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Z H; Geng, Z M; Chen, C; Si, S B; Cai, Z Q; Song, T Q; Gong, P; Jiang, L; Qiu, Y H; He, Y; Zhai, W L; Li, S P; Zhang, Y C; Yang, Y

    2018-05-01

    Objective: To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery. Methods: The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8

  1. Role of plasma EBV DNA levels in predicting recurrence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a western population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrari, Daris; Alterio, Daniela; Foa, Paolo; Codecà, Carla; Bertuzzi, Cecilia; Broggio, Francesca; Crepaldi, Francesca; Luciani, Andrea; Floriani, Irene; Ansarin, Mohssen; Chiesa, Fausto

    2012-01-01

    Loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinomas can be cured by the combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. In Eastern countries, plasma levels of viral Epstein-Barr deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) are accurate in predicting recurrence, but few data are available in Western populations. The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the relationship between viral Epstein-Barr DNA copy numbers in plasma and the response rate, progression-free survival and overall survival in a cohort of Western patients with stage IIb-IVb nasopharyngeal cancer. We evaluated plasma samples from 36 consecutive patients treated with induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiation. EBV copy numbers were determined after DNA extraction using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Circulating Epstein-Barr virus DNA levels were measured before treatment, at the end of concomitant chemo- and radiotherapy, and during the follow-up period. Pre-treatment levels significantly correlated with the initial stage and probability of relapse. Their increase was 100% specific and 71.3% sensitive in detecting loco-regional or metastatic recurrence (an overall accuracy of 94.4%). Three-year progression-free and overall survival were respectively 78.2% and 97.1%. The results of this study confirm that patients from a Western country affected by loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma have high plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA levels at diagnosis. The monitoring of plasma levels is sensitive and highly specific in detecting disease recurrence and metastases

  2. Prognostic factors in patients with advanced cancer: use of the patient-generated subjective global assessment in survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Lisa; Watanabe, Sharon; Fainsinger, Robin; Lau, Francis; Ghosh, Sunita; Quan, Hue; Atkins, Marlis; Fassbender, Konrad; Downing, G Michael; Baracos, Vickie

    2010-10-01

    To determine whether elements of a standard nutritional screening assessment are independently prognostic of survival in patients with advanced cancer. A prospective nested cohort of patients with metastatic cancer were accrued from different units of a Regional Palliative Care Program. Patients completed a nutritional screen on admission. Data included age, sex, cancer site, height, weight history, dietary intake, 13 nutrition impact symptoms, and patient- and physician-reported performance status (PS). Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to test the predictive accuracy of models based on training and validation sets; a c-statistic of 0.5 indicates the model predicts the outcome as well as chance; perfect prediction has a c-statistic of 1.0. A training set of patients in palliative home care (n = 1,164) was used to identify prognostic variables. Primary disease site, PS, short-term weight change (either gain or loss), dietary intake, and dysphagia predicted survival in multivariate analysis (P statistics between predicted and observed responses for survival in the training set (0.90) and validation set (0.88; n = 603). The addition of weight change, dietary intake, and dysphagia did not further improve the c-statistic of the model. The c-statistic was also not altered by substituting physician-rated palliative PS for patient-reported PS. We demonstrate a high probability of concordance between predicted and observed survival for patients in distinct palliative care settings (home care, tertiary inpatient, ambulatory outpatient) based on patient-reported information.

  3. A CpG-methylation-based assay to predict survival in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jin-Huan; Haddad, Ahmed; Wu, Kai-Jie; Zhao, Hong-Wei; Kapur, Payal; Zhang, Zhi-Ling; Zhao, Liang-Yun; Chen, Zhen-Hua; Zhou, Yun-Yun; Zhou, Jian-Cheng; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yan-Hong; Cai, Mu-Yan; Xie, Dan; Liao, Bing; Li, Cai-Xia; Li, Pei-Xing; Wang, Zong-Ren; Zhou, Fang-Jian; Shi, Lei; Liu, Qing-Zuo; Gao, Zhen-Li; He, Da-Lin; Chen, Wei; Hsieh, Jer-Tsong; Li, Quan-Zhen; Margulis, Vitaly; Luo, Jun-Hang

    2015-01-01

    Clear cell renal cell carcinomas (ccRCCs) display divergent clinical behaviours. Molecular markers might improve risk stratification of ccRCC. Here we use, based on genome-wide CpG methylation profiling, a LASSO model to develop a five-CpG-based assay for ccRCC prognosis that can be used with formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens. The five-CpG-based classifier was validated in three independent sets from China, United States and the Cancer Genome Atlas data set. The classifier predicts the overall survival of ccRCC patients (hazard ratio=2.96−4.82; P=3.9 × 10−6−2.2 × 10−9), independent of standard clinical prognostic factors. The five-CpG-based classifier successfully categorizes patients into high-risk and low-risk groups, with significant differences of clinical outcome in respective clinical stages and individual ‘stage, size, grade and necrosis' scores. Moreover, methylation at the five CpGs correlates with expression of five genes: PITX1, FOXE3, TWF2, EHBP1L1 and RIN1. Our five-CpG-based classifier is a practical and reliable prognostic tool for ccRCC that can add prognostic value to the staging system. PMID:26515236

  4. Circulating tumor cells predict survival benefit from chemotherapy in patients with lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhuo-Xuan; Liu, Zhen; Jiang, Han-Ling; Pan, Hong-Ming; Han, Wei-Dong

    2016-10-11

    This meta-analysis was to explore the clinical significance of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in predicting the tumor response to chemotherapy and prognosis of patients with lung cancer. We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Database, Web of Science and reference lists of relevant articles. Our meta-analysis was performed by Stata software, version 12.0, with a random effects model. Risk ratio (RR), hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used as effect measures. 8 studies, including 453 patients, were eligible for analyses. We showed that the disease control rate (DCR) in CTCs-negative patients was significantly higher than CTCs-positive patients at baseline (RR = 2.56, 95%CI [1.36, 4.82], p chemotherapy (RR = 9.08, CI [3.44, 23.98], p chemotherapy had a worse disease progression than those with CTC-positive to negative or persistently negative (RR = 8.52, CI [1.66, 43.83], p chemotherapy also indicated poor overall survival (OS) (baseline: HR = 3.43, CI [2.21, 5.33], pchemotherapy: HR = 3.16, CI [2.23, 4.48], p chemotherapy: HR = 3.78, CI [2.33, 6.13], p chemotherapy and poor prognosis in patients with lung cancer.

  5. The Glasgow Prognostic Score. An useful tool to predict survival in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Maria Aparecida Coelho de Arruda; Lerco, Mauro Masson; de Oliveira, Walmar Kerche; Guerra, Anderson Roberto; Rodrigues, Maria Aparecida Marchesan

    2015-08-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) in patients with esophageal carcinoma (EC). A total of 50 patients with EC were analyzed for GPS, nutritional and clinicopathologic parameters. Patients with CRP ≤ 1.0mg/L and albumin ≥ 3.5mg/L were considered as GPS = 0. Patients with only CRP increased or albumin decreased were classified as GPS = 1 and patients with CRP > 1.0mg/L and albumin L were considered as GPS = 2. GPS of 0, 1 and 2 were observed in seven, 23 and 20 patients, respectively. A significant inverse relationship was observed between GPS scores and the survival rate. The survival rate was greatest in patients with GPS = 0 and significantly higher than those from patients with GPS = 1 and GPS = 2. Minimum 12-month survival was observed in 71% patients with GPS = 0 and in 30% patients with GPS = 1. None of the patients with GPS = 2 survived for 12 months. A significant relationship between CRP or albumin individually and the survival rate was observed. No significant relationship among nutritional, clinic pathological parameters and survival was found. Glasgow Prognostic Score is an useful tool to predict survival in patients with esophageal carcinoma.

  6. High endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression independently predicts poor survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ching-Fang; Lee, Ching-Tai; Kuo, Yao-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Haw; Chang, Chi-Yang; Chang, I-Wei; Wang, Wen-Lun

    2017-09-01

    Patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma have poor survival and high recurrence rate, thus an effective prognostic biomarker is needed. Endothelin-converting enzyme-1 is responsible for biosynthesis of endothelin-1, which promotes growth and invasion of human cancers. The role of endothelin-converting enzyme-1 in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is still unknown. Therefore, this study investigated the significance of endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma clinically. We enrolled patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who provided pretreated tumor tissues. Tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry and was defined as either low or high expression. Then we evaluated whether tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression had any association with clinicopathological findings or predicted survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Overall, 54 of 99 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma had high tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression, which was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis ( p = 0.04). In addition, tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression independently predicted survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, and the 5-year survival was poorer in patients with high tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression ( p = 0.016). Among patients with locally advanced and potentially resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (stage II and III), 5-year survival was poorer with high tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression ( p = 0.003). High tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression also significantly predicted poorer survival of patients in this population. In patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, high tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression might indicate high tumor invasive property. Therefore, tumor endothelin-converting enzyme-1 expression

  7. Predictive value of the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and its components for long-term survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukland, Preben; Lando, Martin; Vilholm, Ole

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The "Status Epilepticus Severity Score" (STESS) is the most important clinical score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with status epilepticus (SE), but its prognostic relevance for long-term survival is unknown. This study therefore examined if STESS and its components...

  8. Genetic Programming for Sea Level Predictions in an Island Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Ghorbani

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of sea-level are important for geodetic applications, navigation, coastal, industrial and tourist activities. In the current work, the Genetic Programming (GP and artificial neural networks (ANNs were applied to forecast half-daily and daily sea-level variations from 12 hours to 5 days ahead. The measurements at the Cocos (Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean were used for training and testing of the employed artificial intelligence techniques. A comparison was performed of the predictions from the GP model and the ANN simulations. Based on the comparison outcomes, it was found that the Genetic Programming approach can be successfully employed in forecasting of sea level variations.

  9. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De-Sen

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment. PMID:27008710

  10. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jian-Hong; Fang, Yu-Jing; Li, Cai-Xia; Ou, Qing-Jian; Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De Sen

    2016-04-19

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

  11. Geographic remoteness, area-level socioeconomic disadvantage and inequalities in colorectal cancer survival in Queensland: a multilevel analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background To explore the impact of geographical remoteness and area-level socioeconomic disadvantage on colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. Methods Multilevel logistic regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations were used to analyze geographical variations in five-year all-cause and CRC-specific survival across 478 regions in Queensland Australia for 22,727 CRC cases aged 20–84 years diagnosed from 1997–2007. Results Area-level disadvantage and geographic remoteness were independently associated with CRC survival. After full multivariate adjustment (both levels), patients from remote (odds Ratio [OR]: 1.24, 95%CrI: 1.07-1.42) and more disadvantaged quintiles (OR = 1.12, 1.15, 1.20, 1.23 for Quintiles 4, 3, 2 and 1 respectively) had lower CRC-specific survival than major cities and least disadvantaged areas. Similar associations were found for all-cause survival. Area disadvantage accounted for a substantial amount of the all-cause variation between areas. Conclusions We have demonstrated that the area-level inequalities in survival of colorectal cancer patients cannot be explained by the measured individual-level characteristics of the patients or their cancer and remain after adjusting for cancer stage. Further research is urgently needed to clarify the factors that underlie the survival differences, including the importance of geographical differences in clinical management of CRC. PMID:24152961

  12. Molecular profiling of short-term and long-term surviving patients identifies CD34 mRNA level as prognostic for glioblastoma survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michaelsen, Signe Regner; Urup, Thomas; Olsen, Lars Rønn

    2018-01-01

    Despite extensive treatment, overall survival (OS) for glioblastoma (GBM) remains poor. A small proportion of patients present long survival over 3 years, but the underlying molecular background separating these long-term survivors (LTS) from short-term survivors (STS) are insufficiently understood....... Accordingly, study aim was to identify independent prognostic biomarkers for survival. Study cohort consisted of 93 primary GBM patients treated with radiation-, chemo- and bevacizumab therapy, among which 14 STS (OS ≤ 12 months) and 6 LTS (OS ≥ 36 months) were identified, all confirmed being IDH wild......-type. RNA expression levels in diagnostic tumor specimen for 792 genes were analyzed by NanoString technology. While no differences were found with regard to GBM subtype between LTS versus STS, comparative analysis of individual genes identified 14 significantly differently expressed candidate genes...

  13. SU-E-T-427: Cell Surviving Fractions Derived From Tumor-Volume Variation During Radiotherapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Comparison with Predictive Assays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chvetsov, A; Schwartz, J; Mayr, N [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Yartsev, S [London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario (Canada)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To show that a distribution of cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} in a heterogeneous group of patients can be derived from tumor-volume variation curves during radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Methods: Our analysis was based on two data sets of tumor-volume variation curves for heterogeneous groups of 17 patients treated for nonsmall cell lung cancer with conventional dose fractionation. The data sets were obtained previously at two independent institutions by using megavoltage (MV) computed tomography (CT). Statistical distributions of cell surviving fractions S{sup 2} and cell clearance half-lives of lethally damaged cells T1/2 have been reconstructed in each patient group by using a version of the two-level cell population tumor response model and a simulated annealing algorithm. The reconstructed statistical distributions of the cell surviving fractions have been compared to the distributions measured using predictive assays in vitro. Results: Non-small cell lung cancer presents certain difficulties for modeling surviving fractions using tumor-volume variation curves because of relatively large fractional hypoxic volume, low gradient of tumor-volume response, and possible uncertainties due to breathing motion. Despite these difficulties, cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} for non-small cell lung cancer derived from tumor-volume variation measured at different institutions have similar probability density functions (PDFs) with mean values of 0.30 and 0.43 and standard deviations of 0.13 and 0.18, respectively. The PDFs for cell surviving fractions S{sup 2} reconstructed from tumor volume variation agree with the PDF measured in vitro. Comparison of the reconstructed cell surviving fractions with patient survival data shows that the patient survival time decreases as the cell surviving fraction increases. Conclusion: The data obtained in this work suggests that the cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} can be reconstructed from the tumor volume

  14. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT predicts survival after {sup 90}Y transarterial radioembolization in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jreige, Mario; Mitsakis, Periklis; Gucht, Axel van der; Pomoni, Anastasia; Silva-Monteiro, Marina; Boubaker, Ariane; Nicod-Lalonde, Marie; Prior, John O.; Schaefer, Niklaus [Lausanne University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Lausanne (Switzerland); Gnesin, Silvano [Lausanne University Hospital, Institute of Radiation Physics, Lausanne (Switzerland); Duran, Rafael; Denys, Alban [Lausanne University Hospital, Department of Radiodiagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2017-07-15

    To compare the value of pretreatment functional and morphological imaging parameters for predicting survival in patients undergoing transarterial radioembolization using yttrium-90 ({sup 90}Y-TARE) for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). We analysed data from 48 patients in our prospective database undergoing {sup 90}Y-TARE treatment for uHCC (31 resin, 17 glass). All patients underwent {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT and morphological imaging (CT and MRI scans) as part of a pretherapeutic work-up. Patients did not receive any treatment between these imaging procedures and {sup 90}Y-TARE. Kaplan-Meier estimates of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were used to assess the prognostic value of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT metabolic parameters, including SUV{sub max}, tumour-to-liver (T/L) uptake ratio and SUV{sub mean} of healthy liver, and morphological data, including number and size of lesions, portal-venous infiltration (PVI). Relevant prognostic factors for HCC including Child-Pugh class, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, tumour size, PVI and serum AFP level were compared with metabolic parameters in univariate and multivariate analyses. The median follow-up in living patients was 16.2 months (range 11.4-50.1 months). Relapse occurred in 34 patients (70.8%) at a median of 7.4 months (range 1.4-27.9 months) after {sup 90}Y-TARE, and relapse occurred in 24 of 34 patients (70.8%) who died from their disease at a median of 8.1 months (range 2.2-35.2 months). Significant prognostic markers for PFS were the mean and median lesion SUV{sub max} (both P = 0.01; median PFS 10.2 vs. 7.4 months), and significant prognostic markers for OS were the first quarter (Q1) cut-off values for lesion SUV{sub max} and T/L uptake ratio (both P = 0.02; median OS 30.9 vs. 9 months). The multivariate analysis confirmed that lesion SUV{sub max} and T/L uptake ratio were independent negative predictors of PFS (hazard ratio, HR, 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-6.1, P = 0.02, for mean

  15. Maintenance of cellular ATP level by caloric restriction correlates chronological survival of budding yeast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Joon-Seok; Lee, Cheol-Koo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: •CR decreases total ROS and mitochondrial superoxide during the chronological aging. •CR does not affect the levels of oxidative damage on protein and DNA. •CR contributes extension of chronological lifespan by maintenance of ATP level -- Abstract: The free radical theory of aging emphasizes cumulative oxidative damage in the genome and intracellular proteins due to reactive oxygen species (ROS), which is a major cause for aging. Caloric restriction (CR) has been known as a representative treatment that prevents aging; however, its mechanism of action remains elusive. Here, we show that CR extends the chronological lifespan (CLS) of budding yeast by maintaining cellular energy levels. CR reduced the generation of total ROS and mitochondrial superoxide; however, CR did not reduce the oxidative damage in proteins and DNA. Subsequently, calorie-restricted yeast had higher mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), and it sustained consistent ATP levels during the process of chronological aging. Our results suggest that CR extends the survival of the chronologically aged cells by improving the efficiency of energy metabolism for the maintenance of the ATP level rather than reducing the global oxidative damage of proteins and DNA

  16. Maintenance of cellular ATP level by caloric restriction correlates chronological survival of budding yeast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Joon-Seok; Lee, Cheol-Koo, E-mail: cklee2005@korea.ac.kr

    2013-09-13

    Highlights: •CR decreases total ROS and mitochondrial superoxide during the chronological aging. •CR does not affect the levels of oxidative damage on protein and DNA. •CR contributes extension of chronological lifespan by maintenance of ATP level -- Abstract: The free radical theory of aging emphasizes cumulative oxidative damage in the genome and intracellular proteins due to reactive oxygen species (ROS), which is a major cause for aging. Caloric restriction (CR) has been known as a representative treatment that prevents aging; however, its mechanism of action remains elusive. Here, we show that CR extends the chronological lifespan (CLS) of budding yeast by maintaining cellular energy levels. CR reduced the generation of total ROS and mitochondrial superoxide; however, CR did not reduce the oxidative damage in proteins and DNA. Subsequently, calorie-restricted yeast had higher mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), and it sustained consistent ATP levels during the process of chronological aging. Our results suggest that CR extends the survival of the chronologically aged cells by improving the efficiency of energy metabolism for the maintenance of the ATP level rather than reducing the global oxidative damage of proteins and DNA.

  17. Basal HIF-1a expression levels are not predictive for radiosensitivity of human cancer cell lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schilling, D.; Multhoff, G.; Helmholtz Center Munich, CCG - Innate Immunity in Tumor Biology, Munich; Bayer, C.; Emmerich, K.; Molls, M.; Vaupel, P.; Huber, R.M.

    2012-01-01

    High levels of hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1a in tumors are reported to be associated with tumor progression and resistance to therapy. To examine the impact of HIF-1a on radioresistance under normoxia, the sensitivity towards irradiation was measured in human tumor cell lines that differ significantly in their basal HIF-1a levels. HIF-1a levels were quantified in lysates of H1339, EPLC-272H, A549, SAS, XF354, FaDu, BHY, and CX- tumor cell lines by ELISA. Protein levels of HIF-1a, HIF-2a, carbonic anhydrase IX (CA IX), and GAPDH were assessed by Western blot analysis. Knock-down experiments were performed using HIF-1a siRNA. Clonogenic survival after irradiation was determined by the colony forming assay. According to their basal HIF-1a status, the tumor cell lines were divided into low (SAS, XF354, FaDu, A549, CX-), intermediate (EPLC-272H, BHY), and high (H1339) HIF-1a expressors. The functionality of the high basal HIF-1a expression in H1339 cells was proven by reduced CA IX expression after knocking-down HIF-1a. Linear regression analysis revealed no correlation between basal HIF-1a levels and the survival fraction at either 2 or 4 Gy in all tumor cell lines investigated. Our data suggest that basal HIF-1a levels in human tumor cell lines do not predict their radiosensitivity under normoxia. (orig.)

  18. Young patients with colorectal cancer have poor survival in the first twenty months after operation and predictable survival in the medium and long-term: Analysis of survival and prognostic markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wickramarachchi RE

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives This study compares clinico-pathological features in young (50 years with colorectal cancer, survival in the young and the influence of pre-operative clinical and histological factors on survival. Materials and methods A twelve year prospective database of colorectal cancer was analysed. Fifty-three young patients were compared with forty seven consecutive older patients over fifty years old. An analysis of survival was undertaken in young patients using Kaplan Meier graphs, non parametric methods, Cox's Proportional Hazard Ratios and Weibull Hazard models. Results Young patients comprised 13.4 percent of 397 with colorectal cancer. Duration of symptoms and presentation in the young was similar to older patients (median, range; young patients; 6 months, 2 weeks to 2 years, older patients; 4 months, 4 weeks to 3 years, p > 0.05. In both groups, the majority presented without bowel obstruction (young - 81%, older - 94%. Cancer proximal to the splenic flexure was present more in young than in older patients. Synchronous cancers were found exclusively in the young. Mucinous tumours were seen in 16% of young and 4% of older patients (p Conclusion If patients, who are less than 40 years old with colorectal cancer, survive twenty months after operation, the prognosis improves and their survival becomes predictable.

  19. Analyzing a Lung Cancer Patient Dataset with the Focus on Predicting Survival Rate One Year after Thoracic Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei Hachesu, Peyman; Moftian, Nazila; Dehghani, Mahsa; Samad Soltani, Taha

    2017-06-25

    Background: Data mining, a new concept introduced in the mid-1990s, can help researchers to gain new, profound insights and facilitate access to unanticipated knowledge sources in biomedical datasets. Many issues in the medical field are concerned with the diagnosis of diseases based on tests conducted on individuals at risk. Early diagnosis and treatment can provide a better outcome regarding the survival of lung cancer patients. Researchers can use data mining techniques to create effective diagnostic models. The aim of this study was to evaluate patterns existing in risk factor data of for mortality one year after thoracic surgery for lung cancer. Methods: The dataset used in this study contained 470 records and 17 features. First, the most important variables involved in the incidence of lung cancer were extracted using knowledge discovery and datamining algorithms such as naive Bayes, maximum expectation and then, using a regression analysis algorithm, a questionnaire was developed to predict the risk of death one year after lung surgery. Outliers in the data were excluded and reported using the clustering algorithm. Finally, a calculator was designed to estimate the risk for one-year post-operative mortality based on a scorecard algorithm. Results: The results revealed the most important factor involved in increased mortality to be large tumor size. Roles for type II diabetes and preoperative dyspnea in lower survival were also identified. The greatest commonality in classification of patients was Forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1), based on levels of which patients could be classified into different categories. Conclusion: Development of a questionnaire based on calculations to diagnose disease can be used to identify and fill knowledge gaps in clinical practice guidelines. Creative Commons Attribution License

  20. Flux balance modeling to predict bacterial survival during pulsed-activity events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jose, Nicholas A.; Lau, Rebecca; Swenson, Tami L.; Klitgord, Niels; Garcia-Pichel, Ferran; Bowen, Benjamin P.; Baran, Richard; Northen, Trent R.

    2018-04-01

    Desert biological soil crusts (BSCs) are cyanobacteria-dominated surface soil microbial communities common to plant interspaces in arid environments. The capability to significantly dampen their metabolism allows them to exist for extended periods in a desiccated dormant state that is highly robust to environmental stresses. However, within minutes of wetting, metabolic functions reboot, maximizing activity during infrequent permissive periods. Microcoleus vaginatus, a primary producer within the crust ecosystem and an early colonizer, initiates crust formation by binding particles in the upper layer of soil via exopolysaccharides, making microbial dominated biological soil crusts highly dependent on the viability of this organism. Previous studies have suggested that biopolymers play a central role in the survival of this organism by powering resuscitation, rapidly forming compatible solutes, and fueling metabolic activity in dark, hydrated conditions. To elucidate the mechanism of this phenomenon and provide a basis for future modeling of BSCs, we developed a manually curated, genome-scale metabolic model of Microcoleus vaginatus (iNJ1153). To validate this model, gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS) and liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy (LC-MS) were used to characterize the rate of biopolymer accumulation and depletion in in hydrated Microcoleus vaginatus under light and dark conditions. Constraint-based flux balance analysis showed agreement between model predictions and experimental reaction fluxes. A significant amount of consumed carbon and light energy is invested into storage molecules glycogen and polyphosphate, while β-polyhydroxybutyrate may function as a secondary resource. Pseudo-steady-state modeling suggests that glycogen, the primary carbon source with the fastest depletion rate, will be exhausted if M. vaginatus experiences dark wetting events 4 times longer than light wetting events.

  1. ATM/RB1 mutations predict shorter overall survival in urothelial cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Ming; Grivas, Petros; Emamekhoo, Hamid; Mendiratta, Prateek; Ali, Siraj; Hsu, JoAnn; Vasekar, Monali; Drabick, Joseph J; Pal, Sumanta; Joshi, Monika

    2018-03-30

    Mutations of DNA repair genes, e.g. ATM/RB1 , are frequently found in urothelial cancer (UC) and have been associated with better response to cisplatin-based chemotherapy. Further external validation of the prognostic value of ATM/RB1 mutations in UC can inform clinical decision making and trial designs. In the discovery dataset, ATM/RB1 mutations were present in 24% of patients and were associated with shorter OS (adjusted HR 2.67, 95% CI, 1.45-4.92, p = 0.002). There was a higher mutation load in patients carrying ATM/RB1 mutations (median mutation load: 6.7 versus 5.5 per Mb, p = 0.072). In the validation dataset, ATM/RB1 mutations were present in 22.2% of patients and were non-significantly associated with shorter OS (adjusted HR 1.87, 95% CI, 0.97-3.59, p = 0.06) and higher mutation load (median mutation load: 8.1 versus 7.2 per Mb, p = 0.126). Exome sequencing data of 130 bladder UC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset were analyzed as a discovery cohort to determine the prognostic value of ATM/RB1 mutations. Results were validated in an independent cohort of 81 advanced UC patients. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) to compare overall survival (OS). ATM/RB1 mutations may be a biomarker of poor prognosis in unselected UC patients and may correlate with higher mutational load. Further studies are required to determine factors that can further stratify prognosis and evaluate predictive role of ATM/RB1 mutation status to immunotherapy and platinum-based chemotherapy.

  2. Floating along buoyancy levels: dispersal and survival of western Baltic fish eggs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petereit, C.; Hinrichsen, H.-H.; Franke, A.

    2014-01-01

    Vertical distribution is an important feature of pelagic fish eggs and yolk sac larvae impacting their survival and dispersal, especially in heterogeneous and highly variable estuarine environments like the Baltic Sea. Egg densities determining the vertical distribution pattern were experimentally...... ascertained for cod (Gadus morhua), plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and flounder (Platichthys flesus) from the western Baltic Sea. Plaice eggs floated at lower mean (± standard deviation) density range (1.0136 ± 0.0007 g cm-3) compared to cod (1.0146 ± 0.0009 g cm-3) and flounder eggs (1.0160 ± 0.0015 g cm-3......), which floated on the highest density level. In flounder egg diameter was significantly related to egg density and in cod a weak correlation could be found between egg dry weight and density. All other relationships between female size, egg size, egg dry weight and egg density were not significant...

  3. Magnetic resonance imaging-detected tumor response for locally advanced rectal cancer predicts survival outcomes: MERCURY experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Uday B; Taylor, Fiona; Blomqvist, Lennart; George, Christopher; Evans, Hywel; Tekkis, Paris; Quirke, Philip; Sebag-Montefiore, David; Moran, Brendan; Heald, Richard; Guthrie, Ashley; Bees, Nicola; Swift, Ian; Pennert, Kjell; Brown, Gina

    2011-10-01

    To assess magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and pathologic staging after neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer in a prospectively enrolled, multicenter study. In a prospective cohort study, 111 patients who had rectal cancer treated by neoadjuvant therapy were assessed for response by MRI and pathology staging by T, N and circumferential resection margin (CRM) status. Tumor regression grade (TRG) was also assessed by MRI. Overall survival (OS) was estimated by using the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine associations between staging of good and poor responders on MRI or pathology and survival outcomes after controlling for patient characteristics. On multivariate analysis, the MRI-assessed TRG (mrTRG) hazard ratios (HRs) were independently significant for survival (HR, 4.40; 95% CI, 1.65 to 11.7) and disease-free survival (DFS; HR, 3.28; 95% CI, 1.22 to 8.80). Five-year survival for poor mrTRG was 27% versus 72% (P = .001), and DFS for poor mrTRG was 31% versus 64% (P = .007). Preoperative MRI-predicted CRM independently predicted local recurrence (LR; HR, 4.25; 95% CI, 1.45 to 12.51). Five-year survival for poor post-treatment pathologic T stage (ypT) was 39% versus 76% (P = .001); DFS for the same was 38% versus 84% (P = .001); and LR for the same was 27% versus 6% (P = .018). The 5-year survival for involved pCRM was 30% versus 59% (P = .001); DFS, 28 versus 62% (P = .02); and LR, 56% versus 10% (P = .001). Pathology node status did not predict outcomes. MRI assessment of TRG and CRM are imaging markers that predict survival outcomes for good and poor responders and provide an opportunity for the multidisciplinary team to offer additional treatment options before planning definitive surgery. Postoperative histopathology assessment of ypT and CRM but not post-treatment N status were important postsurgical predictors of outcome.

  4. Can venous ProBNP levels predict placenta accreta?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ersoy, Ali Ozgur; Oztas, Efser; Ozler, Sibel; Ersoy, Ebru; Erkenekli, Kudret; Uygur, Dilek; Caglar, Ali Turhan; Danisman, Nuri

    2016-12-01

    Placenta previa (PP) is a potential life-threatening pregnancy complication. Pro-brain natriuretic peptide (ProBNP), creatine kinase (CK), cardiac form of CK (CK-MB) and Troponin I are circulatory biomarkers related to cardiac functions. We aimed to determine whether these biomarkers are related to PP and placenta accreta. In this case-control study, fifty-four pregnant women who attended our tertiary care center for perinatology with the diagnosis of PP totalis, and of them, 14 patients with placenta accreta were recruited as the study groups. Forty-six uncomplicated control patients who were matched for age, BMI were also included. Maternal venous ProBNP, CK, CK-MB and Troponin I levels were compared between the three groups. Obstetric history characteristics were comparable among groups, generally. CK and CK-MB levels were similar among three groups. Troponin I levels in the previa and accreta groups were significantly higher than the controls. ProBNP levels in the accreta group were significantly higher than other two groups. The multivariate regression model revealed that ProBNP could predict placental adhesion anomalies. Troponin I and ProBNP levels in PP cases were higher than controls and ProBNP could predict placenta accreta.

  5. Higher Serum Levels of Free ĸ plus λ Immunoglobulin Light Chains Ameliorate Survival of Hemodialysis Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thilo, Florian; Caspari, Christina; Scholze, Alexandra

    2011-01-01

    Background/Aims: Impaired immune function is common in patients with chronic renal failure. Now, we determined whether serum levels of free immunoglobulin light chains predict mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study...... of 160 hemodialysis patients with a median follow-up of 15 months (interquartile range, 3-44 months). Serum levels of free κ and λ immunoglobulin light chains were measured at the start of the study. The primary end point was mortality from any cause. Results: In survivors, median serum levels of free κ...... plus λ immunoglobulin light chains were significantly higher compared with nonsurvivors (p light chains above the median compared with patients with serum levels below the median of 210 mg...

  6. Bone mineral density predicts posttransplant survival among hepatocellular carcinoma liver transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Pratima; Parikh, Neehar D; Yu, Jessica; Barman, Pranab; Derstine, Brian A; Sonnenday, Christopher J; Wang, Stewart C; Su, Grace L

    2016-08-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common indication for liver transplantation (LT). Recent data suggest that body composition features strongly affect post-LT mortality. We examined the impact of body composition on post-LT mortality in patients with HCC. Data on adult LT recipients who received Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception for HCC between February 29, 2002, and December 31, 2013, and who had a computed tomography (CT) scan any time 6 months prior to LT were reviewed (n = 118). All available CT scan Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine files were analyzed using a semiautomated high throughput methodology with algorithms programmed in MATLAB. Analytic morphomics measurements including dorsal muscle group (DMG) area, visceral and subcutaneous fat, and bone mineral density (BMD) were taken at the bottom of the eleventh thoracic vertebral level. Thirty-two (27%) patients died during the median follow-up of 4.4 years. The number of HCC lesions (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P DMG area did not affect post-LT survival. In conclusion, in addition to number of HCC lesions and pre-LT locoregional therapy, low BMD, a surrogate for bone loss rather than DMG area, was independently associated with post-LT mortality in HCC patients. Bone loss may be an early marker of deconditioning that precedes sarcopenia and may affect transplant outcomes. Liver Transplantation 22 1092-1098 2016 AASLD. © 2016 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  7. Volumetric parameters on FDG PET can predict early intrahepatic recurrence-free survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative surgical resection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jeong Won [Catholic Kwandong University College of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Incheon (Korea, Republic of); Hwang, Sang Hyun; Kim, Hyun Jeong; Kim, Dongwoo; Cho, Arthur; Yun, Mijin [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-11-15

    This study assessed the prognostic values of volumetric parameters on {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting early intrahepatic recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A retrospective analysis was performed on 242 patients with HCC who underwent staging FDG PET and subsequent curative surgical resection. The tumor-to-non-tumorous liver uptake ratio, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of the HCC lesions on PET were measured. The prognostic values of clinical factors and PET parameters for predicting overall RFS, overall survival (OS), extrahepatic RFS, and early and late intrahepatic RFS were assessed. The median follow-up period was 54.7 months, during which 110 patients (45.5%) experienced HCC recurrence and 62 (25.6%) died. Patients with extrahepatic and early intrahepatic recurrence showed worse OS than did those with no recurrence or late intrahepatic recurrence (p < 0.001). Serum bilirubin level, MTV, and TLG were independent prognostic factors for overall RFS and OS (p < 0.05). Only MTV and TLG were prognostic for extrahepatic RFS (p < 0.05). Serum alpha-fetoprotein and bilirubin levels, MTV, and TLG were prognostic for early intrahepatic RFS (p < 0.05) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) positivity and serum albumin level were independently prognostic for late intrahepatic RFS (p < 0.05). Intrahepatic recurrence showed different prognoses according to the time interval of recurrence in which early recurrence had as poor survival as extrahepatic recurrence. MTV and TLG on initial staging PET were significant independent factors for predicting early intrahepatic and extrahepatic RFS in patients with HCC after curative resection. Only HCV positivity and serum albumin level were significant for late intrahepatic RFS, which is mainly attributable to the de novo formation of new primary HCC. (orig.)

  8. Correlation between preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and survival with respect to the surgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma at a tertiary care hospital in Veracruz, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Martínez-Mier

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein levels can have predictive value for hepatocellular carcinoma survival. Aim: Our aim was to analyze the correlation between preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and survival, following the surgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods: Nineteen patients were prospectively followed (07/2005-01/2016. An ROC curve was created to determine the sensitivity and specificity of alpha-fetoprotein in relation to survival (Kaplan-Meier. Results: Of the 19 patients evaluated, 57.9% were men. The mean patient age was 68.1 ± 8.5 years and survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 89.4, 55.9, and 55.9%. The alpha-fetoprotein cutoff point was 15.1 ng/ml (sensitivity 100%, specificity 99.23%. Preoperative alpha-fetoprotein levels below 15.1, 200, 400, and 463 ng/ml correlated with better 1 and 5-year survival rates than levels above 15.1, 200, 400, and 463 ng/ml (P<.05. Conclusions: Elevated preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein levels have predictive value for hepatocellular carcinoma survival. Resumen: Introducción: Los niveles séricos de alfafetoproteína (AFP preoperatoria pueden tener valor predictivo para la sobrevida del hepatocarcinoma (HCC. Objetivo: Analizar la correlación entre los niveles séricos de AFP preoperatoria y la sobrevida posterior al tratamiento quirúrgico del HCC. Métodos: Diecinueve pacientes fueron seguidos prospectivamente (julio del 2005-enero del 2016. Se realizó una curva ROC para determinar la sensibilidad y la especificidad de la AFP con relación con la sobrevida (Kaplan-Meier. Resultados: Se evaluó a 19 pacientes, 57.9% hombres, edad media 68.1 ± 8.5 años con sobrevida a 1, 3 y 5 años del 89.4, el 55.9 y el 55.9%. El punto de corte de AFP fue 15.1 ng/ml (sensibilidad 100%, especificidad 99.23%. Los niveles preoperatorios de AFP menores de 15.1, 200, 400 y 463 ng/ml correlacionaron con mejor sobrevida a 1 y 5 años que niveles mayores de AFP (p < 0

  9. Membrane expression of MRP-1, but not MRP-1 splicing or Pgp expression, predicts survival in patients with ESFT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roundhill, E; Burchill, S

    2013-07-09

    Primary Ewing's sarcoma family of tumours (ESFTs) may respond to chemotherapy, although many patients experience subsequent disease recurrence and relapse. The survival of ESFT cells following chemotherapy has been attributed to the development of resistant disease, possibly through the expression of ABC transporter proteins. MRP-1 and Pgp mRNA and protein expression in primary ESFTs was determined by quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR (RT-qPCR) and immunohistochemistry, respectively, and alternative splicing of MRP-1 by RT-PCR. We observed MRP-1 protein expression in 92% (43 out of 47) of primary ESFTs, and cell membrane MRP-1 was highly predictive of both overall survival (PMRP-1 was detected in primary ESFTs, although the pattern of splicing variants was not predictive of patient outcome, with the exception of loss of exon 9 in six patients, which predicted relapse (P=0.041). Pgp protein was detected in 6% (38 out of 44) of primary ESFTs and was not associated with patient survival. For the first time we have established that cell membrane expression of MRP-1 or loss of exon 9 is predictive of outcome but not the number of splicing events or expression of Pgp, and both may be valuable factors for the stratification of patients for more intensive therapy.

  10. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms for fuzzy classification in survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, Fernando; Sánchez, Gracia; Juárez, José M

    2014-03-01

    This paper presents a novel rule-based fuzzy classification methodology for survival/mortality prediction in severe burnt patients. Due to the ethical aspects involved in this medical scenario, physicians tend not to accept a computer-based evaluation unless they understand why and how such a recommendation is given. Therefore, any fuzzy classifier model must be both accurate and interpretable. The proposed methodology is a three-step process: (1) multi-objective constrained optimization of a patient's data set, using Pareto-based elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to maximize accuracy and minimize the complexity (number of rules) of classifiers, subject to interpretability constraints; this step produces a set of alternative (Pareto) classifiers; (2) linguistic labeling, which assigns a linguistic label to each fuzzy set of the classifiers; this step is essential to the interpretability of the classifiers; (3) decision making, whereby a classifier is chosen, if it is satisfactory, according to the preferences of the decision maker. If no classifier is satisfactory for the decision maker, the process starts again in step (1) with a different input parameter set. The performance of three multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, niched pre-selection multi-objective algorithm, elitist Pareto-based multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for diversity reinforcement (ENORA) and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II), was tested using a patient's data set from an intensive care burn unit and a standard machine learning data set from an standard machine learning repository. The results are compared using the hypervolume multi-objective metric. Besides, the results have been compared with other non-evolutionary techniques and validated with a multi-objective cross-validation technique. Our proposal improves the classification rate obtained by other non-evolutionary techniques (decision trees, artificial neural networks, Naive Bayes, and case

  11. Calcium Sensor, NCS-1, Promotes Tumor Aggressiveness and Predicts Patient Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lauren M; England, Allison; Ehrlich, Barbara E; Rimm, David L

    2017-07-01

    Neuronal Calcium Sensor 1 (NCS-1) is a multi-functional Ca 2+ -binding protein that affects a range of cellular processes beyond those related to neurons. Functional characterization of NCS-1 in neuronal model systems suggests that NCS-1 may influence oncogenic processes. To this end, the biological role of NCS-1 was investigated by altering its endogenous expression in MCF-7 and MB-231 breast cancer cells. Overexpression of NCS-1 resulted in a more aggressive tumor phenotype demonstrated by a marked increase in invasion and motility, and a decrease in cell-matrix adhesion to collagen IV. Overexpression of NCS-1 was also shown to increase the efficacy of paclitaxel-induced cell death in a manner that was independent of cellular proliferation. To determine the association between NCS-1 and clinical outcome, NCS-1 expression was measured in two independent breast cancer cohorts by the Automated Quantitative Analysis method of quantitative immunofluorescence. Elevated levels of NCS-1 were significantly correlated with shorter survival rates. Furthermore, multivariate analysis demonstrated that NCS-1 status was prognostic, independent of estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER2, and lymph node status. These findings indicate that NCS-1 plays a role in the aggressive behavior of a subset of breast cancers and has therapeutic or biomarker potential. Implications: NCS-1, a calcium-binding protein, is associated with clinicopathologic features of aggressiveness in breast cancer cells and worse outcome in two breast cancer patient cohorts. Mol Cancer Res; 15(7); 942-52. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  12. Predicting Structure-Function Relations and Survival following Surgical and Bronchoscopic Lung Volume Reduction Treatment of Emphysema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondoñedo, Jarred R; Suki, Béla

    2017-02-01

    Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) and bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (bLVR) are palliative treatments aimed at reducing hyperinflation in advanced emphysema. Previous work has evaluated functional improvements and survival advantage for these techniques, although their effects on the micromechanical environment in the lung have yet to be determined. Here, we introduce a computational model to simulate a force-based destruction of elastic networks representing emphysema progression, which we use to track the response to lung volume reduction via LVRS and bLVR. We find that (1) LVRS efficacy can be predicted based on pre-surgical network structure; (2) macroscopic functional improvements following bLVR are related to microscopic changes in mechanical force heterogeneity; and (3) both techniques improve aspects of survival and quality of life influenced by lung compliance, albeit while accelerating disease progression. Our model predictions yield unique insights into the microscopic origins underlying emphysema progression before and after lung volume reduction.

  13. PD-L1 expression as a predictive biomarker in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: updated survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguiar, Pedro N; De Mello, Ramon Andrade; Hall, Peter; Tadokoro, Hakaru; Lima Lopes, Gilberto de

    2017-05-01

    The treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer has changed after the development of the immune checkpoint inhibitors. Although the most studied biomarker is PD-L1 expression, its clinical significance is still debatable. In this article, we show the updated survival analysis of all published data. We searched in network and conference data sources for relevant clinical studies of immunotherapy for non-small-cell lung cancer that assessed the PD-L1 expression even as an exploratory analysis. The updated survival hazard ratios (HR) were included in the analysis. 14 studies with 2857 patients were included (2019 treated with immunotherapy). The response rate was as higher among PD-L1-positive patients (RR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.63-2.94). PD-L1 expression was also related to better progression-free survival (HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.57-0.85) and better overall survival (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.89). PD-L1 overexpression predicts activity as well as better survival for patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

  14. Prediction of survival by texture-based automated quantitative assessment of regional disease patterns on CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Min; Seo, Joon Beom; Oh, Sang Young; Lee, Sang Min; Kim, Namkug; Kim, Tae Hoon; Song, Jin Woo

    2018-01-01

    To retrospectively investigate whether the baseline extent and 1-year change in regional disease patterns on CT can predict survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). A total of 144 IPF patients with CT scans at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later were included. The extents of five regional disease patterns were quantified using an in-house texture-based automated system. The fibrosis score was defined as the sum of the extent of honeycombing and reticular opacity. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the independent predictors of survival. A total of 106 patients (73.6%) died during the follow-up period. Univariate analysis revealed that age, baseline forced vital capacity, total lung capacity, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, six-minute walk distance, desaturation , honeycombing, reticular opacity, fibrosis score, and interval changes in honeycombing and fibrosis score were significantly associated with survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, desaturation, fibrosis score and interval change in fibrosis score were significant independent predictors of survival (p = 0.003, <0.001, 0.001 and <0.001). The C-index for the developed model was 0.768. Texture-based, automated CT quantification of fibrosis can be used as an independent predictor of survival in IPF patients. (orig.)

  15. Fear affects parental care, which predicts juvenile survival and exacerbates the total cost of fear on demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudeck, Blair P; Clinchy, Michael; Allen, Marek C; Zanette, Liana Y

    2018-01-01

    Fear itself (perceived predation risk) can affect wildlife demography, but the cumulative impact of fear on population dynamics is not well understood. Parental care is arguably what most distinguishes birds and mammals from other taxa, yet only one experiment on wildlife has tested fear effects on parental food provisioning and the repercussions this has for the survival of dependent offspring, and only during early-stage care. We tested the effect of fear on late-stage parental care of mobile dependent offspring, by locating radio-tagged Song Sparrow fledglings and broadcasting predator or non-predator playbacks in their vicinity, measuring their parent's behavior and their own, and tracking the offspring's survival to independence. Fear significantly reduced late-stage parental care, and parental fearfulness (as indexed by their reduction in provisioning when hearing predators) significantly predicted their offspring's condition and survival. Combining results from this experiment with that on early-stage care, we project that fear itself is powerful enough to reduce late-stage survival by 24%, and cumulatively reduce the number of young reaching independence by more than half, 53%. Experiments in invertebrate and aquatic systems demonstrate that fear is commonly as important as direct killing in affecting prey demography, and we suggest focusing more on fear effects and on offspring survival will reveal the same for wildlife. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Prediction of survival by texture-based automated quantitative assessment of regional disease patterns on CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Min; Seo, Joon Beom; Oh, Sang Young; Lee, Sang Min; Kim, Namkug [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Tae Hoon; Song, Jin Woo [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2018-03-15

    To retrospectively investigate whether the baseline extent and 1-year change in regional disease patterns on CT can predict survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). A total of 144 IPF patients with CT scans at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later were included. The extents of five regional disease patterns were quantified using an in-house texture-based automated system. The fibrosis score was defined as the sum of the extent of honeycombing and reticular opacity. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the independent predictors of survival. A total of 106 patients (73.6%) died during the follow-up period. Univariate analysis revealed that age, baseline forced vital capacity, total lung capacity, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, six-minute walk distance, desaturation{sub ,} honeycombing, reticular opacity, fibrosis score, and interval changes in honeycombing and fibrosis score were significantly associated with survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, desaturation, fibrosis score and interval change in fibrosis score were significant independent predictors of survival (p = 0.003, <0.001, 0.001 and <0.001). The C-index for the developed model was 0.768. Texture-based, automated CT quantification of fibrosis can be used as an independent predictor of survival in IPF patients. (orig.)

  17. Pathological stage after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophagectomy superiorly predicts survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chia-Chun; Cheng, Jason Chia-Hsien; Tsai, Chiao-Ling; Lee, Jang-Ming; Huang, Pei-Ming; Lin, Chia-Chi; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Hsieh, Min-Shu; Chang, Yih-Leong; Hsu, Feng-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose: To assess the usefulness of pathological stage according to the 7th edition of the Union for International Cancer Control–American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC–AJCC) as a prognostic tool in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by esophagectomy (trimodality therapy, TMT) for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Material and methods: One hundred twenty-five eligible patients completing TMT were enrolled for analysis. The clinical (cTNM7) and pathological (ypTNM7) stage groups of their tumors were prospectively classified, and re-grouped by the 6th edition (ypTNM6). Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method. The Cox proportional hazard model and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare the performance of staging systems. Results: With a median follow-up of 24.6 months, 54 patients (43.2%) died. Forty patients (32%) achieved pathological complete remission (pCR). The median survival was 31.8 months. On multivariate analysis, ypTNM7 (but not pCR or pN) was the only independent factor affecting overall survival (p < 0.001). The ypTNM7 was superior to cTNM7 or ypTNM6 in predicting both overall and recurrence-free survival after TMT based on AIC values and Cox proportional hazard model analysis. Conclusions: In patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma undergoing TMT, ypTNM7 is the best predictor of survival

  18. Predicting survival in patients with metastatic kidney cancer by gene-expression profiling in the primary tumor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasselli, James R; Shih, Joanna H; Iyengar, Shuba R; Maranchie, Jodi; Riss, Joseph; Worrell, Robert; Torres-Cabala, Carlos; Tabios, Ray; Mariotti, Andra; Stearman, Robert; Merino, Maria; Walther, McClellan M; Simon, Richard; Klausner, Richard D; Linehan, W Marston

    2003-06-10

    To identify potential molecular determinants of tumor biology and possible clinical outcomes, global gene-expression patterns were analyzed in the primary tumors of patients with metastatic renal cell cancer by using cDNA microarrays. We used grossly dissected tumor masses that included tumor, blood vessels, connective tissue, and infiltrating immune cells to obtain a gene-expression "profile" from each primary tumor. Two patterns of gene expression were found within this uniformly staged patient population, which correlated with a significant difference in overall survival between the two patient groups. Subsets of genes most significantly associated with survival were defined, and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) was the gene most predictive for survival. Therefore, despite the complex biological nature of metastatic cancer, basic clinical behavior as defined by survival may be determined by the gene-expression patterns expressed within the compilation of primary gross tumor cells. We conclude that survival in patients with metastatic renal cell cancer can be correlated with the expression of various genes based solely on the expression profile in the primary kidney tumor.

  19. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. \\ud \\ud Design: Cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry.\\ud \\ud Participants: 44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer ...

  20. A new score predicting the survival of patients with spinal cord compression from myeloma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Douglas, Sarah; Schild, Steven E; Rades, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    This study was performed to create and validate a scoring system for the survival of patients with malignant spinal cord compression (SCC) from myeloma. Of the entire cohort (N = 216), 108 patients were assigned to a test group and 108 patients to a validation group. In the test group, nine pre-treatment factors including age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS), number of involved vertebrae, ambulatory status prior to radiotherapy, other bone lesions, extraosseous lesions, interval from first diagnosis of myeloma to radiotherapy of SCC, and the time developing motor deficits were retrospectively analyzed. On univariate analysis, improved survival was associated with ECOG-PS 1–2 (p = 0.006), being ambulatory (p = 0.005), and absence of other bone lesions (p = 0.019). On multivariate analysis, ECOG-PS (p = 0.036) and ambulatory status (p = 0.037) were significant; other bone lesions showed a strong trend (p = 0.06). These factors were included in the score. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 12-month survival rate (in%) by 10. The total risk score was the sum of the three factor scores and ranged from 19 to 24 points. Three prognostic groups were designed with the following 12-month survival rates: 49% for 19–20 points, 74% for 21–23 points, and 93% for 24 points (p = 0.002). In the validation group, the 12-month survival rates were 51%, 80%, and 90%, respectively (p < 0.001). This score appears reproducible, because the 12-month survival rates of both the test and the validation group were very similar. This new survival score can help personalize the treatment of patients with SCC from myeloma and can be of benefit when counseling patients

  1. Survival predictability of lean and fat mass in men and women undergoing maintenance hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noori, Nazanin; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Dukkipati, Ramanath; Kim, Youngmee; Duong, Uyen; Bross, Rachelle; Oreopoulos, Antigone; Luna, Amanda; Benner, Debbie; Kopple, Joel D; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

    2010-11-01

    Larger body size is associated with greater survival in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. It is not clear how lean body mass (LBM) and fat mass (FM) compare in their associations with survival across sex in these patients. We examined the hypothesis that higher FM and LBM are associated with greater survival in MHD patents irrespective of sex. In 742 MHD patients, including 31% African Americans with a mean (± SD) age of 54 ± 15 y, we categorized men (n = 391) and women (n = 351) separately into 4 quartiles of near-infrared interactance-measured LBM and FM. Cox proportional hazards models estimated death hazard ratios (HRs) (and 95% CIs), and cubic spline models were used to examine associations with mortality over 5 y (2001-2006). After adjustment for case-mix and inflammatory markers, the highest quartiles of FM and LBM were associated with greater survival in women: HRs of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.71) and 0.34 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.67), respectively (reference: first quartile). In men, the highest quartiles of FM and percentage FM (FM%) but not of LBM were associated with greater survival: HRs of 0.51 (95% CI: 0.27, 0.96), 0.45 (95% CI: 0.23, 0.88), and 1.17 (95% CI: 0.60, 2.27), respectively. Cubic spline analyses showed greater survival with higher FM% and higher "FM minus LBM percentiles" in both sexes, whereas a higher LBM was protective in women. In MHD patients, higher FM in both sexes and higher LBM in women appear to be protective. The survival advantage of FM appears to be superior to that of LBM. Clinical trials to examine the outcomes of interventions that modify body composition in MHD patients are indicated.

  2. Hemoglobin and hematocrit levels in the prediction of complicated Crohn's disease behavior--a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Florian; Paul, Gisela; Schnoy, Elisabeth; Schleder, Stephan; Wolf, Alexandra; Kamm, Florian; Dirmeier, Andrea; Strauch, Ulrike; Obermeier, Florian; Lopez, Rocio; Achkar, Jean-Paul; Rogler, Gerhard; Klebl, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Markers that predict the occurrence of a complicated disease behavior in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) can permit a more aggressive therapeutic regimen for patients at risk. The aim of this cohort study was to test the blood levels of hemoglobin (Hgb) and hematocrit (Hct) for the prediction of complicated CD behavior and CD related surgery in an adult patient population. Blood samples of 62 CD patients of the German Inflammatory Bowel Disease-network "Kompetenznetz CED" were tested for the levels of Hgb and Hct prior to the occurrence of complicated disease behavior or CD related surgery. The relation of these markers and clinical events was studied using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and adjusted COX-proportional hazard regression models. The median follow-up time was 55.8 months. Of the 62 CD patients without any previous complication or surgery 34% developed a complication and/or underwent CD related surgery. Low Hgb or Hct levels were independent predictors of a shorter time to occurrence of the first complication or CD related surgery. This was true for early as well as late occurring complications. Stable low Hgb or Hct during serial follow-up measurements had a higher frequency of complications compared to patients with a stable normal Hgb or Hct, respectively. Determination of Hgb or Hct in complication and surgery naïve CD patients might serve as an additional tool for the prediction of complicated disease behavior.

  3. Stathmin protein level, a potential predictive marker for taxane treatment response in endometrial cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrica M J Werner

    Full Text Available Stathmin is a prognostic marker in many cancers, including endometrial cancer. Preclinical studies, predominantly in breast cancer, have suggested that stathmin may additionally be a predictive marker for response to paclitaxel. We first evaluated the response to paclitaxel in endometrial cancer cell lines before and after stathmin knock-down. Subsequently we investigated the clinical response to paclitaxel containing chemotherapy in metastatic endometrial cancer in relation to stathmin protein level in tumors. Stathmin level was also determined in metastatic lesions, analyzing changes in biomarker status on disease progression. Knock-down of stathmin improved sensitivity to paclitaxel in endometrial carcinoma cell lines with both naturally higher and lower sensitivity to paclitaxel. In clinical samples, high stathmin level was demonstrated to be associated with poor response to paclitaxel containing chemotherapy and to reduced disease specific survival only in patients treated with such combination. Stathmin level increased significantly from primary to metastatic lesions. This study suggests, supported by both preclinical and clinical data, that stathmin could be a predictive biomarker for response to paclitaxel treatment in endometrial cancer. Re-assessment of stathmin level in metastatic lesions prior to treatment start may be relevant. Also, validation in a randomized clinical trial will be important.

  4. Ghrelin level negatively predicts quality of life in obese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, P H; Song, Y L; Hsu, C H

    2017-02-01

    A cross-sectional cohort study was conducted to investigate whether ghrelin level in obese women predicts the quality of life (QOL). A total of 307 subjects fulfilled the criteria: (1) age between 20 and 65 years old, (2) body mass index ≥27 kg/m 2 (3) waist circumference ≥80 cm were enrolled in the study. All subjects were assigned to one of the plasma ghrelin level categories according to the quartiles. The median of age and BMI of the 307 obese women were 45 ± 18 years and 29.9 ± 4.1 kg/m 2 , respectively. The main outcome evaluated is the associations of plasma ghrelin level and QOL, which were evaluated using multiple linear regression analysis. Results of linear trend test show significant statistical difference in plasma lipoproteins (triglyceride, cholesterol, HDL-cholestero and LDL-cholesterol = and levels of obesity-related hormone peptides, including leptin, adiponectin, insulin among quartiles of ghrelin. Multiple liner regression analysis of serum obesity-related hormone peptide level and QOL using stepwise method shows ghrelin concentration was the only predictor of QOL, including PCS-12 level (β = -0.18, p = 0.001), MCS-12 level (β = -0.14, p = 0.009), WHOQOL-BREF scores: physical (β = -0.13, p = 0.03), psychological (β = -0.16, p = 0.007), social (β = -0.21, p =  ghrelin concentration is strongly associated with QOL level among obese women. Hence, ghrelin concentration might be a valuable marker to be monitored in obese women.

  5. Serum Reactive Oxygen Metabolite Levels Predict Severe Exacerbations of Asthma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamoto, Keitaro; Watanabe, Masato; Sada, Mitsuru; Inui, Toshiya; Nakamura, Masuo; Honda, Kojiro; Wada, Hiroo; Mikami, Yu; Matsuzaki, Hirotaka; Horie, Masafumi; Noguchi, Satoshi; Yamauchi, Yasuhiro; Koyama, Hikari; Kogane, Toshiyuki; Kohyama, Tadashi; Takizawa, Hajime

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Bronchial asthma (BA) is a chronic airway disease characterized by airway hyperresponsiveness and remodeling, which are intimately linked to chronic airway inflammation. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) such as hydrogen peroxide are generated by inflammatory cells that are involved in the pathogenesis of BA. However, the role of ROS in the management of BA patients is not yet clear. We attempted to determine the role of ROS as a biomarker in the clinical setting of BA. Subjects and Methods We enrolled patients with BA from 2013 through 2015 and studied the degrees of asthma control, anti-asthma treatment, pulmonary function test results, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), serum reactive oxygen metabolite (ROM) levels, and serum levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-8. Results We recruited 110 patients with BA. Serum ROM levels correlated with white blood cell (WBC) count (rs = 0.273, p = 0.004), neutrophil count (rs = 0.235, p = 0.014), CRP (rs = 0.403, p < 0.001), and IL-6 (rs = 0.339, p < 0.001). Serum ROM levels and IL-8 and CRP levels negatively correlated with %FEV1 (rs = -0.240, p = 0.012, rs = -0.362, p < 0.001, rs = -0.197, p = 0.039, respectively). Serum ROM levels were significantly higher in patients who experienced severe exacerbation within 3 months than in patients who did not (339 [302–381] vs. 376 [352–414] CARR U, p < 0.025). Receiver-operating characteristics analysis showed that ROM levels correlated significantly with the occurrence of severe exacerbation (area under the curve: 0.699, 95% CI: 0.597–0.801, p = 0.025). Conclusions Serum levels of ROM were significantly associated with the degrees of airway obstruction, WBC counts, neutrophil counts, IL-6, and severe exacerbations. This biomarker may be useful in predicting severe exacerbations of BA. PMID:27776186

  6. PCI is Not Predictive of Survival After Complete CRS/HIPEC in Peritoneal Dissemination from High-Grade Appendiceal Primaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Votanopoulos, Konstantinos Ioannis; Bartlett, David; Moran, Brendan; Haroon, Choudry M; Russell, Greg; Pingpank, James F; Ramalingam, Lekshmi; Kandiah, Chandrakumaran; Chouliaras, Konstantinos; Shen, Perry; Levine, Edward A

    2018-03-01

    Cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) is a treatment option in patients with carcinomatosis from high-grade appendiceal (HGA) primaries. It is unknown if there is a Peritoneal Carcinomatosis Index (PCI) upper limit above which a complete CRS/HIPEC does not assure long-term survival. Retrospective analysis from three centers was performed. The PCI was used to grade volume of of disease. Survival in relation to PCI was studied on patients with complete cytoreduction. Overall, 521 HGA patients underwent CRS/HIPEC from 1993 to 2015, with complete CRS being achieved in 50% (260/622). Mean PCI was 14.8 (standard deviation 8.7, range 0-36). Median survival for the complete CRS cohort was 6.1 years, while 5- and 10-year survival was 51.7% (standard error [SE] 4.6) and 36.1% (SE 6.3), respectively. Arbitrary cut-off PCI limits with 5-point splits (p = 0.63) were not predictive of a detrimental effect on survival as long as a complete CRS was achieved. A linear effect of the PCI on survival (p = 0.62) was not observed, and single-point PCI cohort splits within a PCI range of  10 were not predictive of survival for complete CRS patients. The PCI correlated with the ability to achieve a complete CRS, with a mean PCI of 14.7 (8.7) for completeness of cytoreduction (CC)0, 22.3 (7.8) for CC1 and 26.1 (9.5) for CC2/3 resections (p = 0.0001, hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.09), with an HR of 1.15 for each 1-unit increase in the PCI score. Only 21% of the cohort achieved a complete CRS with a PCI ≥ 21. The PCI correlates with the ability to achieve a complete CRS in carcinomatosis from HGA. PCI is not associated with survival as long as a complete CRS can be achieved.

  7. 18F-Fluoride PET/CT tumor burden quantification predicts survival in breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Ana E; Santos, Allan; Sasse, André Deeke; Cabello, Cesar; Oliveira, Paulo; Mosci, Camila; Souza, Tiago; Amorim, Barbara; Lima, Mariana; Ramos, Celso D; Etchebehere, Elba

    2017-05-30

    In bone-metastatic breast cancer patients, there are no current imaging biomarkers to identify which patients have worst prognosis. The purpose of our study was to investigate if skeletal tumor burden determined by 18F-Fluoride PET/CT correlates with clinical outcomes and may help define prognosis throughout the course of the disease. Bone metastases were present in 49 patients. On multivariable analysis, skeletal tumor burden was significantly and independently associated with overall survival (p breast cancer patients (40 for primary staging and the remainder for restaging after therapy). Clinical parameters, primary tumor characteristics and skeletal tumor burden were correlated to overall survival, progression free-survival and time to bone event. The median follow-up time was 19.5 months. 18F-Fluoride PET/CT skeletal tumor burden is a strong independent prognostic imaging biomarker in breast cancer patients.

  8. Lower Bmi-1 Expression May Predict Longer Survival of Colon Cancer Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study aimed to investigate the Bmi-1 expression and the clinical significance in colon cancer (CC. Patients and Methods: Bmi-1 expression in tumor tissue and the corresponding normal tissue was detected using immunohistological staining. The correlations between Bmi-1 expression and clinicopathological characteristics and the overall survival (OS time were analyzed. Results: The median H-scores of Bmi-1 in CC tissues and the corresponding tissues were 80.0 (0-270 and 5.0 (0-90, with no statistically significant difference (Z=-13.7, PP = 0.123. The survival rates of patients with low Bmi-1 expression were higher than those of patients with high Bmi-1 expression but the differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Bmi-1 expression in CC tissue is significantly higher than that in corresponding normal tissue. While there may be a trend towards improved survival, this is not statistically significant.

  9. Chemotherapy-related leukopenia as a biomarker predicting survival outcomes in locally advanced cervical cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogani, Giorgio; Sabatucci, Ilaria; Maltese, Giuseppa; Lecce, Francesca; Signorelli, Mauro; Martinelli, Fabio; Chiappa, Valentina; Indini, Alice; Leone Roberti Maggiore, Umberto; Borghi, Chiara; Fucà, Giovanni; Ditto, Antonino; Raspagliesi, Francesco; Lorusso, Domenica

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the impact of hematologic toxicity and leukopenia in locally advanced cervical cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). Data of consecutive patients undergoing platinum-based NACT followed by surgery were retrospectively searched in order to evaluate the impact of chemotherapy-related toxicity on survival outcomes. Toxicity was graded per the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAEv.4.03). Survival outcomes were evaluated using Kaplan-Meir and Cox hazard models. Overall, 126 patients were included. Among those, 94 (74.6%) patients experienced grade2+ hematologic toxicity; while, grade2+ non-hematologic toxicity occurred in 11 (8.7%) patients. After a median follow-up of 37.1 (inter-quartile range, 12-57.5) months, 21 (16.6%) patients experienced recurrence. Via multivariate analysis, no factor was independently associated with disease-free survival; while a trend toward worse prognosis was observed for patients experiencing grade2+ leukopenia at cycle-3 (HR:3.13 (95%CI: 0.94, 10.3); p=0.06). Similarly, grade2+ leukopenia (HR:9.98 (95%CI: 1.14, 86.6); p=0.03), lymph-node positivity (HR:14.6 (95%CI:1.0, 214.4); p=0.05) and vaginal involvement (HR:5.81 (95%CI:1.43, 23.6); p=0.01) impacted on overall survival, at multivariate analysis. Magnitude of leukopenia correlated with survival (p<0.001). Although, our data have to be confirmed by prospective investigations, the present study shows an association between the occurrence of leukopenia and survival outcomes. NACT-related immunosuppression might reduce the response against the tumor, thus promoting cancer progression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessment of ventricular wall motion with focused echocardiography during cardiac arrest to predict survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Can Ozen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Our primary goal is to investigate the hypothesis that in patients with a detectable ventricular wall motion (VWM in cardiac ultrasonography (US during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR, survival rate is significantly more than in patients without VWM in US. Material and methods: In our prospective, single center study, 129 adult cardiac arrest (CA patients were enrolled. Cardiac US according to Focus Assessed Transthoracic Echo (FATE protocol was performed before CPR. Presence of VWM was recorded on forms along with demographic data, initial rhythm, CA location, presence of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC and time until ROSC was obtained. Results: 129 patients were included. ROSC was obtained in 56/77 (72.7% patients with VWM and 3/52 (5.8% patients without VWM which is statistically significant (p > 0.001. Presence of VWM is 95% (95% CI: 0.95–0.99 sensitive and 70% (95% CI: 0.58–0.80 specific for ROSC. 43/77 (55.8% patients with VWM and 1 (1.9% of 52 patients without VWM survived to hospital admission which was statistically significant (p < 0.001. Presence of VWM was 100% (95% CI: 0.87–1.00 sensitive and 54% (95% CI: 0.43–0.64 specific for survival to hospital admission. Conclusion: No patient without VWM in US survived to hospital discharge. Only 3 had ROSC in emergency department and only 1 survived to hospital admission. This data suggests no patient without VWM before the onset of CPR survived to hospital discharge and this may be an indication to end resuscitative efforts early in these patients. Keywords: Cardiopulmonary resuscitation, Ultrasonography, Echocardiography, Ventricular wall motion

  11. Bronchoscopic findings and bleeding control predict survival in patients with solid malignancies presenting with mild hemoptysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosu, Horiana B; Casal, Roberto F; Morice, Rodolfo C; Nogueras-González, Graciela M; Eapen, Georgie A; Ost, David; Sarkiss, Mona G; Jimenez, Carlos A

    2013-08-01

    Regardless of its volume, hemoptysis is a concerning symptom. Mild hemoptysis and its significance in patients with solid malignancies has not been studied. We conducted a retrospective chart review of patients with solid malignancies who presented for evaluation of mild hemoptysis. In this population, we studied the impact of bronchoscopic findings and endobronchial therapies on overall survival and bleeding recurrence. Patients were categorized into four groups on the basis of the presence or absence of active bleeding and endobronchial disease at the time of initial bronchoscopy: active bleeding with endobronchial lesion (AB/EBL), active bleeding without endobronchial lesion (AB/no-EBL), absence of active bleeding but with endobronchial lesion (no-AB/EBL), and absence of active bleeding and endobronchial lesion (no-AB/no-EBL). Ninety-five of the 112 patients with solid malignancies and mild hemoptysis underwent bronchoscopies. There was a significantly lower median survival time for patients with bronchoscopic findings of active bleeding and endobronchial lesion compared with patients with no active bleeding and/or no endobronchial lesion (3.48 mo; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.14-6.05). On a multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with improved survival were higher hemoglobin values (hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.91) and cessation of hemoptysis without recurrence at 48 hours (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.22-0.84). Variables independently associated with worse survival were disease stage (HR, 10.8; 95% CI, 2.53-46.08) and AB/EBL (HR, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.74-5.89). In patients with solid malignancies presenting with mild hemoptysis, bronchoscopic findings of AB/EBL are associated with decreased survival. Hemoptysis control without recurrence at 48 hours after endobronchial intervention may improve survival.

  12. Investigation of New Morpholino Oligomers to Increase Survival Motor Neuron Protein Levels in Spinal Muscular Atrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Agnese; Crisafulli, Sebastiano G; Rizzuti, Mafalda; Bresolin, Nereo; Comi, Giacomo P; Corti, Stefania; Nizzardo, Monica

    2018-01-06

    Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is an autosomal-recessive childhood motor neuron disease and the main genetic cause of infant mortality. SMA is caused by deletions or mutations in the survival motor neuron 1 ( SMN1 ) gene, which results in SMN protein deficiency. Only one approved drug has recently become available and allows for the correction of aberrant splicing of the paralogous SMN2 gene by antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs), leading to production of full-length SMN protein. We have already demonstrated that a sequence of an ASO variant, Morpholino (MO), is particularly suitable because of its safety and efficacy profile and is both able to increase SMN levels and rescue the murine SMA phenotype. Here, we optimized this strategy by testing the efficacy of four new MO sequences targeting SMN2 . Two out of the four new MO sequences showed better efficacy in terms of SMN protein production both in SMA induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) and SMAΔ7 mice. Further, the effect was enhanced when different MO sequences were administered in combination. Our data provide an important insight for MO-based treatment for SMA. Optimization of the target sequence and validation of a treatment based on a combination of different MO sequences could support further pre-clinical studies and the progression toward future clinical trials.

  13. Theory of mind predicts severity level in autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogenhout, Michelle; Malcolm-Smith, Susan

    2017-02-01

    We investigated whether theory of mind skills can indicate autism spectrum disorder severity. In all, 62 children with autism spectrum disorder completed a developmentally sensitive theory of mind battery. We used intelligence quotient, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.) diagnosis and level of support needed as indicators of severity level. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we found three distinct clusters of theory of mind ability: early-developing theory of mind (Cluster 1), false-belief reasoning (Cluster 2) and sophisticated theory of mind understanding (Cluster 3). The clusters corresponded to severe, moderate and mild autism spectrum disorder. As an indicator of level of support needed, cluster grouping predicted the type of school children attended. All Cluster 1 children attended autism-specific schools; Cluster 2 was divided between autism-specific and special needs schools and nearly all Cluster 3 children attended general special needs and mainstream schools. Assessing theory of mind skills can reliably discriminate severity levels within autism spectrum disorder.

  14. Edge Contrast of the FLAIR Hyperintense Region Predicts Survival in Patients with High-Grade Gliomas following Treatment with Bevacizumab.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahrami, N; Piccioni, D; Karunamuni, R; Chang, Y-H; White, N; Delfanti, R; Seibert, T M; Hattangadi-Gluth, J A; Dale, A; Farid, N; McDonald, C R

    2018-04-05

    Treatment with bevacizumab is standard of care for recurrent high-grade gliomas; however, monitoring response to treatment following bevacizumab remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to determine whether quantifying the sharpness of the fluid-attenuated inversion recovery hyperintense border using a measure derived from texture analysis-edge contrast-improves the evaluation of response to bevacizumab in patients with high-grade gliomas. MRIs were evaluated in 33 patients with high-grade gliomas before and after the initiation of bevacizumab. Volumes of interest within the FLAIR hyperintense region were segmented. Edge contrast magnitude for each VOI was extracted using gradients of the 3D FLAIR images. Cox proportional hazards models were generated to determine the relationship between edge contrast and progression-free survival/overall survival using age and the extent of surgical resection as covariates. After bevacizumab, lower edge contrast of the FLAIR hyperintense region was associated with poorer progression-free survival ( P = .009) and overall survival ( P = .022) among patients with high-grade gliomas. Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that edge contrast cutoff significantly stratified patients for both progression-free survival (log-rank χ 2 = 8.3, P = .003) and overall survival (log-rank χ 2 = 5.5, P = .019). Texture analysis using edge contrast of the FLAIR hyperintense region may be an important predictive indicator in patients with high-grade gliomas following treatment with bevacizumab. Specifically, low FLAIR edge contrast may partially reflect areas of early tumor infiltration. This study adds to a growing body of literature proposing that quantifying features may be important for determining outcomes in patients with high-grade gliomas. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  15. HPV Genotypes Predict Survival Benefits From Concurrent Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Cervix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chun-Chieh; Lai, Chyong-Huey; Huang, Yi-Ting; Chao, Angel; Chou, Hung-Hsueh; Hong, Ji-Hong

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To study the prognostic value of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiation therapy (RT) alone or concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT). Methods and Materials: Between August 1993 and May 2000, 327 patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage III/IVA or stage IIB with positive lymph nodes) were eligible for this study. HPV genotypes were determined using the Easychip® HPV genechip. Outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: We detected 22 HPV genotypes in 323 (98.8%) patients. The leading 4 types were HPV16, 58, 18, and 33. The 5-year overall and disease-specific survival estimates for the entire cohort were 41.9% and 51.4%, respectively. CCRT improved the 5-year disease-specific survival by an absolute 9.8%, but this was not statistically significant (P=.089). There was a significant improvement in disease-specific survival in the CCRT group for HPV18-positive (60.9% vs 30.4%, P=.019) and HPV58-positive (69.3% vs 48.9%, P=.026) patients compared with the RT alone group. In contrast, the differences in survival with CCRT compared with RT alone in the HPV16-positive and HPV-33 positive subgroups were not statistically significant (P=.86 and P=.53, respectively). An improved disease-specific survival was observed for CCRT treated patients infected with both HPV16 and HPV18, but these differenced also were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The HPV genotype may be a useful predictive factor for the effect of CCRT in patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix. Verifying these results in prospective trials could have an impact on tailoring future treatment based on HPV genotype.

  16. SNRFCB: sub-network based random forest classifier for predicting chemotherapy benefit on survival for cancer treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Mingguang; He, Jianmin

    2016-04-01

    Adjuvant chemotherapy (CTX) should be individualized to provide potential survival benefit and avoid potential harm to cancer patients. Our goal was to establish a computational approach for making personalized estimates of the survival benefit from adjuvant CTX. We developed Sub-Network based Random Forest classifier for predicting Chemotherapy Benefit (SNRFCB) based gene expression datasets of lung cancer. The SNRFCB approach was then validated in independent test cohorts for identifying chemotherapy responder cohorts and chemotherapy non-responder cohorts. SNRFCB involved the pre-selection of gene sub-network signatures based on the mutations and on protein-protein interaction data as well as the application of the random forest algorithm to gene expression datasets. Adjuvant CTX was significantly associated with the prolonged overall survival of lung cancer patients in the chemotherapy responder group (P = 0.008), but it was not beneficial to patients in the chemotherapy non-responder group (P = 0.657). Adjuvant CTX was significantly associated with the prolonged overall survival of lung cancer squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC) subtype patients in the chemotherapy responder cohorts (P = 0.024), but it was not beneficial to patients in the chemotherapy non-responder cohorts (P = 0.383). SNRFCB improved prediction performance as compared to the machine learning method, support vector machine (SVM). To test the general applicability of the predictive model, we further applied the SNRFCB approach to human breast cancer datasets and also observed superior performance. SNRFCB could provide recurrent probability for individual patients and identify which patients may benefit from adjuvant CTX in clinical trials.

  17. Prediction of survival after surgery due to skeletal metastases in the extremities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, M S; Gerds, T A; Hindsø, K

    2016-01-01

    metastases and American Society of Anaesthesiologist's score were included into a series of logistic regression models. The outcome was the survival status at three, six and 12 months respectively. Results were internally validated based on 1000 cross-validations and reported as time-dependent area under...

  18. Do thallium myocardial perfusion scan abnormalities predict survival in sarcoid patients without cardiac symptoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, E.L.; Caldwell, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    Whereas the total mortality rate for sarcoidosis is 0.2 per 100,000, the prognosis, when the heart is involved, is very much worse. The authors used the difference in mortality rate to infer whether thallium 201 myocardial perfusion scan abnormalities correspond to myocardial sarcoid by making the simplifying assumption that if they do, then patients with abnormal scans will be found to have a death rate similar to patients with sarcoid heart disease. The authors therefore analyzed complete survival data on 52 sarcoid patients without cardiac symptoms an average of eighty-nine months after they had been scanned as part of a protocol. By use of survival analysis (the Cox proportional hazards model), the only variable that was significantly associated with survival was age. The patients' scan pattern, treatment status, gender, and race were not significantly related to survival. The authors conclude that thallium myocardial perfusion scans cannot reliably be used to diagnose sarcoid heart disease in sarcoid patients without cardiac symptoms

  19. Are Breast Cancer Molecular Classes Predictive of Survival in Patients with Long Follow-Up?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danae Pracella

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate the clinical outcomes of 305 breast cancer (BC patients, aged 55 years or younger, with long follow-up and according to intrinsic subtypes. The cohort included 151 lymph node negative (LN− and 154 lymph node positive (LN+ patients. Luminal A tumors were mainly LN−, well differentiated, and of stage I; among them AR was an indicator of good prognosis. Luminal B and HER2 positive nonluminal cancers showed higher tumor grade and nodal metastases as well as higher proliferation status and stage. Among luminal tumors, those PR positive and vimentin negative showed a longer survival. HER2-positive nonluminal and TN patients showed a poorer outcome, with BC-specific death mostly occurring within 5 and 10 years. Only luminal tumor patients underwent BC death over 10 years. When patients were divided in to LN− and LN+ no differences in survival were observed in the luminal subgroups. LN− patients have good survival even after 20 years of follow-up (about 75%, while for LN+ patients survival at 20 years (around 40% was comparable to HER2-positive nonluminal and TN groups. In conclusion, in our experience ER-positive breast tumors are better divided by classical clinical stage than molecular classification, and they need longer clinical follow-up especially in cases with lymph node involvement.

  20. Emmprin Expression Predicts Response and Survival following Cisplatin Containing Chemotherapy for Bladder Cancer: A Validation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemdan, Tammer; Malmström, Per-Uno; Jahnson, Staffan; Segersten, Ulrika

    2015-12-01

    Neoadjuvant chemotherapy before cystectomy is recommended. To our knowledge the subset of patients likely to benefit has not been identified. We validate emmprin and survivin as markers of chemotherapy response. Tumor specimens were obtained before therapy from a total of 250 patients with T1-T4 bladder cancer enrolled in 2 randomized trials comparing neoadjuvant chemotherapy before cystectomy with a surgery only arm. Protein expression was determined by immunohistochemistry. Expression was categorized according to predefined cutoffs reported in the literature. Data were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox models. Patients in the chemotherapy cohort with negative emmprin expression had significantly higher down staging overall survival than those with positive expression (71% vs 38%, pemmprin expression was not associated with overall survival (46% vs 35%, p=0.23) or cancer specific survival (55% vs 51%, p=0.64). Emmprin negative patients had an absolute risk reduction of 25% in overall survival (95% CI 11-40) and a number needed to treat of 4 (95% CI 2.5-9.3). Survivin expression was not useful as a biomarker in this study. Limitations were the retrospective design and heterogeneity coupled with the time difference between the trials. Patients with emmprin negative tumors have a better response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy before cystectomy than those with positive expression. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Androgen deprivation does predict bNED survival in unfavorable prostate cancer PTS treated with external beam radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, Penny R.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Hanks, Gerald E.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: Cooperative groups have investigated the outcome of androgen deprivation therapy combined with radiation therapy in prostate cancer pts with variable prerx prognostic indicators. This report describes an objective means of selecting pts for adjuvant hormonal therapy by examining bNED survival for groups of pts with specific prognostic indicators treated with adjuvant hormones (RT+H) vs matched controls treated with radiation therapy alone (RT). In addition, this report shows the 5-yr bNED survival for pts selected by this method for RT+H vs RT alone. Further, bNED survival is assessed multivariately according to treatment (RT+H vs RT) and predetermined prognostic treatment and prerx covariates. Materials and Methods: From (10(88)) to (12(94)), 684 T1-T3 NXM0 pts with known prerx PSA level were treated at Fox Chase Cancer Center. 568 of those pts were treated with RT alone while 116 were treated with RT+H. Table 1 lists the patient distributions for each of the putative prognostic factors indicative of bNED survival. We compare actuarial bNED survival rates according to treatment group within each of the prognostic groups. bNED survival is also compared for the two treatment groups using 107 RT+H pts and 107 matched (by stage, grade, and prerx PSA) controls randomly selected from the RT alone group. bNED survival for the 214 pts is then analyzed multivariately using stepwise Cox regression to determine independent predictors of outcome. Covariates considered for entry into the model included stage, grade, prerx PSA, treatment (RT vs RT+H), and center of prostate dose. bNED failure is defined as PSA ≥1.5 ngm/ml and rising on two consective determinations. The median follow-up is 30 mos (2 to 90 mos). Results: Table 1 presents three-year bNED actuarial survival rates according to treatment group for prerx PSA, gleason score, and stage groups. It is apparent that the T2C/T3, gleason 7-10, and the prerx PSA > 15 ngm/ml groups of pts benefit from hormonal

  2. Prediction of 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy using computational intelligence methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrzut, Bogdan; Kusy, Maciej; Semczuk, Andrzej; Obrzut, Marzanna; Kluska, Jacek

    2017-12-12

    Computational intelligence methods, including non-linear classification algorithms, can be used in medical research and practice as a decision making tool. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of artificial intelligence models for 5-year overall survival prediction in patients with cervical cancer treated by radical hysterectomy. The data set was collected from 102 patients with cervical cancer FIGO stage IA2-IIB, that underwent primary surgical treatment. Twenty-three demographic, tumor-related parameters and selected perioperative data of each patient were collected. The simulations involved six computational intelligence methods: the probabilistic neural network (PNN), multilayer perceptron network, gene expression programming classifier, support vector machines algorithm, radial basis function neural network and k-Means algorithm. The prediction ability of the models was determined based on the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, as well as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The results of the computational intelligence methods were compared with the results of linear regression analysis as a reference model. The best results were obtained by the PNN model. This neural network provided very high prediction ability with an accuracy of 0.892 and sensitivity of 0.975. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of PNN was also high, 0.818. The outcomes obtained by other classifiers were markedly worse. The PNN model is an effective tool for predicting 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy.

  3. Survival Prediction in Patients Undergoing Open-Heart Mitral Valve Operation After Previous Failed MitraClip Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geidel, Stephan; Wohlmuth, Peter; Schmoeckel, Michael

    2016-03-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the results of open heart mitral valve operations for survival prediction in patients with previously unsuccessful MitraClip procedures. Thirty-three consecutive patients who underwent mitral valve surgery in our institution were studied. At a median of 41 days, they had previously undergone one to five futile MitraClip implantations. At the time of their operations, patients were 72.6 ± 10.3 years old, and the calculated risk, using the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II, was a median of 26.5%. Individual outcomes were recorded, and all patients were monitored postoperatively. Thirty-day mortality was 9.1%, and the overall survival at 2.2 years was 60.6%. Seven cardiac-related and six noncardiac deaths occurred. Univariate survival regression models demonstrated a significant influence of the following variables on survival: EuroSCORE II (p = 0.0022), preoperative left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (p = 0.0052), left ventricular ejection fraction (p = 0.0249), coronary artery disease (p = 0.0385), and severe pulmonary hypertension (p = 0.0431). Survivors showed considerable improvements in their New York Heart Association class (p < 0.0001), left ventricular ejection fraction (p = 0.0080), grade of mitral regurgitation (p = 0.0350), and mitral valve area (p = 0.0486). Survival after mitral repair was not superior to survival after replacement. Indications for surgery after failed MitraClip procedures must be considered with the greatest of care. Variables predicting postoperative survival should be taken into account regarding the difficult decision as to whether to operate or not. Our data suggest that replacement of the pretreated mitral valve is probably the more reasonable concept rather than complex repairs. When the EuroSCORE II at the time of surgery exceeds 30%, conservative therapy is advisable. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc

  4. {sup 18}F-FDG PET independently predicts survival in patients with cholangiocellular carcinoma treated with {sup 90}Y microspheres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haug, Alexander R. [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Klinikum Grosshadern, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Heinemann, Volker [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Internal Medicine III, Munich (Germany); Bruns, Christiane J. [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Surgery, Munich (Germany); Hoffmann, Ralf; Jakobs, Tobias [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Institute of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Bartenstein, Peter; Hacker, Marcus [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany)

    2011-06-15

    {sup 90}Y radioembolization has emerged as a valuable therapy for intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinomas (ICC). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic power of FDG PET/CT and that of pretherapeutic scintigraphy with {sup 99m}Tc-labelled macroagglutinated albumin (MAA), an index of tumour vascularization. The study group comprised 26 consecutive patients suffering from nonresectable ICC. Before treatment with radioembolization, all patients underwent MRI of the liver, as well as MAA scintigraphy, which was followed immediately by SPECT(/CT) to quantify the liver-lung shunt fraction. Using image fusion, regions of interest were drawn around the tumours and the entire liver, and the tumour-to-liver quotient was calculated. In addition, FDG PET/CT was performed at baseline and 3 months after radioembolization, and the percentage changes in peak ({delta}SUV{sub max}) and mean ({delta}SUV{sub mean}) FDG uptake and in metabolic tumour volume ({delta}Vol{sub 2SD}) relative to baseline were calculated. Treatment response at 3 months was also assessed using contrast-enhanced MRI and CT on the basis of standard criteria. Of 23 patients in whom follow-up MRI was available, 5 (22%) showed a partial response, 15 (65%) stable disease and 3 (13%) progressive disease. The change in all FDG values significantly predicted survival by Kaplan-Meier analysis after radioembolization; {delta}Vol{sub 2SD} responders had a median survival of 97 weeks versus 30 weeks in nonresponders (P = 0.02), whereas {delta}SUV{sub max} and {delta}SUV{sub mean} responders had a median survival of 114 weeks (responder) versus 19 weeks (nonresponder) and 69 weeks in patients with stable disease (P < 0.05). Pretherapeutic MAA scintigraphy or MRI did not predict survival, nor did the presence of extrahepatic metastases, or prior therapies. Only {delta}Vol{sub 2SD} was significantly associated with survival by univariate analysis (hazard ratio 0.25; P = 0.04) and multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 0.20, P = 0

  5. Marital status independently predicts testis cancer survival--an analysis of the SEER database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abern, Michael R; Dude, Annie M; Coogan, Christopher L

    2012-01-01

    Previous reports have shown that married men with malignancies have improved 10-year survival over unmarried men. We sought to investigate the effect of marital status on 10-year survival in a U.S. population-based cohort of men with testis cancer. We examined 30,789 cases of testis cancer reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 17) database between 1973 and 2005. All staging were converted to the 1997 AJCC TNM system. Patients less than 18 years of age at time of diagnosis were excluded. A subgroup analysis of patients with stages I or II non-seminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) was performed. Univariate analysis using t-tests and χ(2) tests compared characteristics of patients separated by marital status. Multivariate analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazard model to generate Kaplan-Meier survival curves, with all-cause and cancer-specific mortality as the primary endpoints. 20,245 cases met the inclusion criteria. Married men were more likely to be older (38.9 vs. 31.4 years), Caucasian (94.4% vs. 92.1%), stage I (73.1% vs. 61.4%), and have seminoma as the tumor histology (57.3% vs. 43.4%). On multivariate analysis, married status (HR 0.58, P married status (HR 0.60, P married and unmarried men (44.8% vs. 43.4%, P = 0.33). Marital status is an independent predictor of improved overall and cancer-specific survival in men with testis cancer. In men with stages I or II NSGCT, RPLND is an additional predictor of improved overall survival. Marital status does not appear to influence whether men undergo RPLND. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Association between Pre-Transplant Serum Malondialdehyde Levels and Survival One Year after Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Lorente

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have found higher levels of serum malondialdehyde (MDA in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients compared to healthy controls and higher MDA concentrations in tumoral tissue of HCC patients than in non-tumoral tissue. However, the association between pre-transplant serum levels of MDA and survival in HCC patients after liver transplantation (LT has not been described, and the aim of the present study was to determine whether such an association exists. In this observational study we measured serum MDA levels in 127 patients before LT. We found higher pre-LT serum MDA levels in 15 non-surviving than in 112 surviving patients one year after LT (p = 0.02. Exact binary logistic regression analysis revealed that pre-LT serum levels of MDA over 3.37 nmol/mL were associated with mortality after one year of LT (Odds ratio = 5.38; 95% confidence interval (CI = from 1.580 to infinite; p = 0.007 adjusting for age of the deceased donor. The main finding of our study was that there is an association between serum MDA levels before LT for HCC and 1-year survival after LT.

  7. Association between Pre-Transplant Serum Malondialdehyde Levels and Survival One Year after Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente, Leonardo; Rodriguez, Sergio T.; Sanz, Pablo; Abreu-González, Pedro; Díaz, Dácil; Moreno, Antonia M.; Borja, Elisa; Martín, María M.; Jiménez, Alejandro; Barrera, Manuel A.

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have found higher levels of serum malondialdehyde (MDA) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients compared to healthy controls and higher MDA concentrations in tumoral tissue of HCC patients than in non-tumoral tissue. However, the association between pre-transplant serum levels of MDA and survival in HCC patients after liver transplantation (LT) has not been described, and the aim of the present study was to determine whether such an association exists. In this observational study we measured serum MDA levels in 127 patients before LT. We found higher pre-LT serum MDA levels in 15 non-surviving than in 112 surviving patients one year after LT (p = 0.02). Exact binary logistic regression analysis revealed that pre-LT serum levels of MDA over 3.37 nmol/mL were associated with mortality after one year of LT (Odds ratio = 5.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = from 1.580 to infinite; p = 0.007) adjusting for age of the deceased donor. The main finding of our study was that there is an association between serum MDA levels before LT for HCC and 1-year survival after LT. PMID:27058525

  8. Survival and development of Heliothis virescens (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) larvae on isogenic tobacco lines with different levels of alkaloids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D Michael; Johnson, A W; Stephenson, M G

    2002-12-01

    Levels of pyridine alkaloids were measured in 18 tobacco, Nicotiana tabacum L., entries from three parental isolines ('NC 95', 'SC 58', and 'Coker 139'), grown at Tifton, GA, Florence, SC, and Oxford, NC, in 1991. Levels of alkaloids in bud leaves (first fully unfolded leaf below the apical leaf bud) were negatively correlated to natural infestation ratings of tobacco budworm larvae, Heliothis virescens (F.), 7 wk after transplanting. For artificially infested bud leaves at Oxford, there was a significant negative correlation between levels of total alkaloids and larval weights after 1 wk of feeding. In 1992, four entries from the 'NC 95' isoline were grown at Oxford, and samples for alkaloid analyses were taken every 2 wk at several leaf positions on each plant. During weeks 4, 8, 12, and 16, second instar tobacco budworms were caged on individual, intact leaves inside perforated plastic bags in the field. The survival and development of tobacco budworm larvae after 1 wk were negatively correlated with levels of alkaloids at the various leaf positions. Larvae survived better and grew faster on the bud leaves of each entry where alkaloid levels were lower than they did on leaves further down the stalk where alkaloid levels were higher. More larvae survived on the lower leaves of the low alkaloid lines than on the lower leaves of the high alkaloid lines. Even moderate increases in pyridine alkaloids had negative effects on tobacco budworm survival and development. Nicotine constituted >97% of the pyridine alkaloids in the 'NC95' isoline each year.

  9. SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V; Palmer, J; Yu, Y; Lu, B; Babinsky, L; Burkhart, R; Leiby, B; Siow, V; Lavu, H; Rosato, E; Winter, J; Lewis, N; Sama, A; Mitchell, E; Anne, P; Hurwitz, M; Yeo, C; Bar-Ad, V [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA (United States); and others

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) were randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant.

  10. SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V; Palmer, J; Yu, Y; Lu, B; Babinsky, L; Burkhart, R; Leiby, B; Siow, V; Lavu, H; Rosato, E; Winter, J; Lewis, N; Sama, A; Mitchell, E; Anne, P; Hurwitz, M; Yeo, C; Bar-Ad, V

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) were randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant

  11. Inflammatory markers in blood and serum tumor markers predict survival in patients with epithelial appendiceal neoplasms undergoing surgical cytoreduction and intraperitoneal chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Terence C; Chong, Chanel H; Liauw, Winston; Zhao, Jing; Morris, David L

    2012-08-01

    The study examines the role inflammatory and tumor markers as biomarkers to preoperatively predict outcome in patients with epithelial appendiceal neoplasm undergoing cytoreduction and intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Associations between baseline variables, tumor markers [CEA (carcinoembyronic antigen], CA125, CA199), inflammatory markers including neutrophils-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and C-reactive protein (CRP) with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were examined in patients undergoing surgical cytoreduction and intraperitoneal chemotherapy for epithelial appendiceal neoplasm. A total of 174 patients with epithelial appendiceal neoplasm (low-grade pseudomyxoma, n = 117; appendiceal cancer, n = 57) underwent cytoreduction. On univariate analysis, all 3 inflammatory and tumor markers predicted for both PFS and OS, respectively; NLR ≤ 2.6 (P = 0.01, P = 0.002), PLR ≤ 166 (P = 0.006, P = 0.016), CRP ≤ 12.5 (P = 0.001, P = 0.008), CEA (P 37 (P = 0.003), and a CRP > 12.5 (P = 0.013). A higher peritoneal cancer index (PCI > 24) was associated with elevation in CEA > 12, CA125 > 39, CA199 > 37, PLR > 166 and CRP > 12. The tumor histologic subtype was associated with CA 199 levels. The results from this investigation suggest that preoperative inflammatory markers in blood and serologic tumor markers may predict outcomes and are associated with tumor biology in patients with epithelial appendiceal neoplasm undergoing cytoreduction and intraperitoneal chemotherapy treatment.

  12. CT texture features of liver parenchyma for predicting development of metastatic disease and overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Scott J; Zea, Ryan; Kim, David H; Lubner, Meghan G; Deming, Dustin A; Pickhardt, Perry J

    2018-04-01

    To determine if identifiable hepatic textural features are present at abdominal CT in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) prior to the development of CT-detectable hepatic metastases. Four filtration-histogram texture features (standard deviation, skewness, entropy and kurtosis) were extracted from the liver parenchyma on portal venous phase CT images at staging and post-treatment surveillance. Surveillance scans corresponded to the last scan prior to the development of CT-detectable CRC liver metastases in 29 patients (median time interval, 6 months), and these were compared with interval-matched surveillance scans in 60 CRC patients who did not develop liver metastases. Predictive models of liver metastasis-free survival and overall survival were built using regularised Cox proportional hazards regression. Texture features did not significantly differ between cases and controls. For Cox models using all features as predictors, all coefficients were shrunk to zero, suggesting no association between any CT texture features and outcomes. Prognostic indices derived from entropy features at surveillance CT incorrectly classified patients into risk groups for future liver metastases (p < 0.001). On surveillance CT scans immediately prior to the development of CRC liver metastases, we found no evidence suggesting that changes in identifiable hepatic texture features were predictive of their development. • No correlation between liver texture features and metastasis-free survival was observed. • Liver texture features incorrectly classified patients into risk groups for liver metastases. • Standardised texture analysis workflows need to be developed to improve research reproducibility.

  13. Influence of nutrient levels in Tamarix on Diorhabda sublineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) survival and fitness with implications for biological control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenther, D A; Gardner, K T; Thompson, D C

    2011-02-01

    Establishment of the saltcedar leaf beetle (Diorhabda spp.) has been unpredictable when caged or released in the field for saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) biocontrol. It has been observed that one caged tree might be voraciously fed upon by beetles while an adjacent tree in the cage is left untouched. We hypothesized that differences in the nutrient content of individual trees may explain this behavior. We evaluated survival, development rate, and egg production of beetles fed in the laboratory on saltcedar foliage from trees that had been grown under a range of fertilizer treatments. Tissue samples from the experimental trees and from the field were analyzed for percent nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. There was essentially no survival of beetle larvae fed foliage from saltcedar trees at nitrogen levels below 2.0%. At levels above 2.0% N, beetle larvae had corresponding increased survival rates and shorter development times. Multiple regression analyses indicated that nitrogen and phosphorus are important for larval survival and faster development rates. Higher levels of potassium were important for increased egg cluster production. The plant tissue analysis showed that the percentage of nitrogen in the experimental trees reflected the range of trees in the field and also that there is high variability within trees in the field. Our research indicates that if beetles are released on trees with poor nutrient quality, the larvae will not survive. © 2011 Entomological Society of America

  14. Integration of Multi-Modal Biomedical Data to Predict Cancer Grade and Patient Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phan, John H; Hoffman, Ryan; Kothari, Sonal; Wu, Po-Yen; Wang, May D

    2016-02-01

    The Big Data era in Biomedical research has resulted in large-cohort data repositories such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). These repositories routinely contain hundreds of matched patient samples for genomic, proteomic, imaging, and clinical data modalities, enabling holistic and multi-modal integrative analysis of human disease. Using TCGA renal and ovarian cancer data, we conducted a novel investigation of multi-modal data integration by combining histopathological image and RNA-seq data. We compared the performances of two integrative prediction methods: majority vote and stacked generalization. Results indicate that integration of multiple data modalities improves prediction of cancer grade and outcome. Specifically, stacked generalization, a method that integrates multiple data modalities to produce a single prediction result, outperforms both single-data-modality prediction and majority vote. Moreover, stacked generalization reveals the contribution of each data modality (and specific features within each data modality) to the final prediction result and may provide biological insights to explain prediction performance.

  15. Altering Cell Survival by Modulating Levels of Mitochondrial DNA Repair Enzymes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shokolenko, Inna

    2002-01-01

    .... Our previous results demonstrated that stable expression of E.coli Exonuclease III in mitochondria of breast cancer cells diminishes mtDNA repair capacity following oxidative stress, which leads to a decrease in long-term cell survival...

  16. Prediction of kidney survival in children with primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (a two-center study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaleh Gheissari

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS is one of the most common glomerulopathies in children leading to end stage renal disease (ESRD. Different values of median renal survival have been reported among different ethnicities and races. Many factors are assumed to be responsible for ESRD in these patients. In this study, we tried to determine median renal survival (MRS and also some clinical and histopathological features predisposing FSGS
    patients to ESRD in two referral hospitals in Tehran.
    METHODS: The study involved 103 FSGS patients (61 males and 42 females with a mean age of 7.08 ± 0.68 years. The diagnosis was made based on kidney biopsies. All kidney biopsies were studied by light and immunofluorescent microscopes. Ocular grids (counting squares were used as the standard method to calculate the percentage of cortical interstitial fibrosis (CIF. The percentage of glomerular sclerosis was presented as renal injury score. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR950 ml/min was considered as renal death or the end point. Patients were followed for 1 to 15 years, until occurrence of renal death.
    RESULTS: The MRS was 9.04 ± 1.8 yrs. The renal survival reached 72%, 47% and 17% after 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Univariate analysis showed significant reverse correlation (P<0.05 between renal survival and the following variables: hypertension, anemia, GFR at the time of first admission and also renal injury score >50%, peritubular fibrosis, periglomerular fibrosis, tubular atrophy and CIFC20%. However, multivariate analysis revealed only a reverse correlation between renal survival with CIFC20% and also hypertension (P<0.0001 and P<0.05, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: In our patients, FSGS showed a rapid course towards ESRD compared with patients of western countries. Perhaps some ethnic and genetic factors such as angiotensin converting enzyme genotypes

  17. Higher levels of multiple paternities increase seedling survival in the long-lived tree Eucalyptus gracilis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin F Breed

    Full Text Available Studying associations between mating system parameters and fitness in natural populations of trees advances our understanding of how local environments affect seed quality, and thereby helps to predict when inbreeding or multiple paternities should impact on fitness. Indeed, for species that demonstrate inbreeding avoidance, multiple paternities (i.e. the number of male parents per half-sib family should still vary and regulate fitness more than inbreeding--named here as the 'constrained inbreeding hypothesis'. We test this hypothesis in Eucalyptus gracilis, a predominantly insect-pollinated tree. Fifty-eight open-pollinated progeny arrays were collected from trees in three populations. Progeny were planted in a reciprocal transplant trial. Fitness was measured by family establishment rates. We genotyped all trees and their progeny at eight microsatellite loci. Planting site had a strong effect on fitness, but seed provenance and seed provenance × planting site did not. Populations had comparable mating system parameters and were generally outcrossed, experienced low biparental inbreeding and high levels of multiple paternity. As predicted, seed families that had more multiple paternities also had higher fitness, and no fitness-inbreeding correlations were detected. Demonstrating that fitness was most affected by multiple paternities rather than inbreeding, we provide evidence supporting the constrained inbreeding hypothesis; i.e. that multiple paternity may impact on fitness over and above that of inbreeding, particularly for preferentially outcrossing trees at life stages beyond seed development.

  18. Predicting levels of Latino depression: acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Lucas

    2010-04-01

    Past research has noted that aspects of living in the United States place Latinos at risk for experiencing psychological problems. However, the specific features of the adaptation process that contribute to depression remain unclear. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the ability of acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping to predict membership into low, medium, and high groups of depression among Latinos. Within a group of 148 Latino adults from the community, a multinomial logistic regression revealed that an Anglo orientation, English competency pressures, and active coping differentiated high from low depression and that a Latino orientation and, to some extent, the pressure to acculturate distinguished medium from low depression. These results highlight a pattern of characteristics that function as risk and protective factors in relation to level of symptom severity. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for Latino mental health, including considerations for intervention and prevention. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. System-level analysis of genes and functions affecting survival during nutrient starvation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gresham, David; Boer, Viktor M; Caudy, Amy; Ziv, Naomi; Brandt, Nathan J; Storey, John D; Botstein, David

    2011-01-01

    An essential property of all cells is the ability to exit from active cell division and persist in a quiescent state. For single-celled microbes this primarily occurs in response to nutrient deprivation. We studied the genetic requirements for survival of Saccharomyces cerevisiae when starved for either of two nutrients: phosphate or leucine. We measured the survival of nearly all nonessential haploid null yeast mutants in mixed populations using a quantitative sequencing method that estimates the abundance of each mutant on the basis of frequency of unique molecular barcodes. Starvation for phosphate results in a population half-life of 337 hr whereas starvation for leucine results in a half-life of 27.7 hr. To measure survival of individual mutants in each population we developed a statistical framework that accounts for the multiple sources of experimental variation. From the identities of the genes in which mutations strongly affect survival, we identify genetic evidence for several cellular processes affecting survival during nutrient starvation, including autophagy, chromatin remodeling, mRNA processing, and cytoskeleton function. In addition, we found evidence that mitochondrial and peroxisome function is required for survival. Our experimental and analytical methods represent an efficient and quantitative approach to characterizing genetic functions and networks with unprecedented resolution and identified genotype-by-environment interactions that have important implications for interpretation of studies of aging and quiescence in yeast.

  20. Metabolomic NMR fingerprinting to identify and predict survival of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertini, Ivano; Cacciatore, Stefano; Jensen, Benny V

    2012-01-01

    Earlier detection of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) might improve their treatment and survival outcomes. In this study, we used proton nuclear magnetic resonance ((1)H-NMR) to profile the serum metabolome in patients with mCRC and determine whether a disease signature may exist...... survival (HR, 3.4; 95% confidence interval, 2.06-5.50; P = 1.33 × 10(-6)). A number of metabolites concurred with the (1)H-NMR fingerprint of mCRC, offering insights into mCRC metabolic pathways. Our findings establish that (1)H-NMR profiling of patient serum can provide a strong metabolomic signature of m...

  1. Emmprin and survivin predict response and survival following cisplatin-containing chemotherapy in patients with advanced bladder cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Als, Anne B; Dyrskjøt, Lars; von der Maase, Hans

    2007-01-01

    in an independent material of 124 patients receiving cisplatin-containing therapy. RESULTS: Fifty-five differentially expressed genes correlated significantly to survival time. Two of the protein products (emmprin and survivin) were validated using immunohistochemistry. Multivariate analysis identified emmprin...... metastases, both markers showed significant discriminating power as supplemental risk factors (P emmprin and survivin) had estimated 5-year survival rates of 44.......0%, 21.1%, and 0%, respectively. Response to chemotherapy could also be predicted with an odds ratio of 4.41 (95% confidence interval, 1.91-10.1) and 2.48 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-5.5) for emmprin and survivin, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Emmprin and survivin proteins were identified as strong...

  2. Glomeromycota communities survive extreme levels of metal toxicity in an orphan mining site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Castro, I; Gianinazzi-Pearson, V; Cleyet-Marel, J C; Baudoin, E; van Tuinen, D

    2017-11-15

    Abandoned tailing basins and waste heaps of orphan mining sites are of great concern since extreme metal contamination makes soil improper for any human activity and is a permanent threat for nearby surroundings. Although spontaneous revegetation can occur, the process is slow or unsuccessful and rhizostabilisation strategies to reduce dispersal of contaminated dust represent an option to rehabilitate such sites. This requires selection of plants tolerant to such conditions, and optimization of their fitness and growth. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) can enhance metal tolerance in moderately polluted soils, but their ability to survive extreme levels of metal contamination has not been reported. This question was addressed in the tailing basin and nearby waste heaps of an orphan mining site in southern France, reaching in the tailing basin exceptionally high contents of zinc (ppm: 97,333 total) and lead (ppm: 31,333 total). In order to contribute to a better understanding of AMF ecology under severe abiotic stress and to identify AMF associated with plants growing under such conditions, that may be considered in future revegetation and rhizostabilisation of highly polluted areas, nine plant species were sampled at different growing seasons and AMF root colonization was determined. Glomeromycota diversity was monitored in mycorrhizal roots by sequencing of the ribosomal LSU. This first survey of AMF in such highly contaminated soils revealed the presence of several AMF ribotypes, belonging mainly to the Glomerales, with some examples from the Paraglomerales and Diversisporales. AMF diversity and root colonization in the tailing basin were lower than in the less-contaminated waste heaps. A Paraglomus species previously identified in a polish mining site was common in roots of different plants. Presence of active AMF in such an environment is an outstanding finding, which should be clearly considered for the design of efficient rhizostabilisation processes

  3. Immunohistochemical detection of cdc2 is useful in predicting survival in patients with mantle cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, David; Reiman, Tony; Hanson, John; Linford, Rick; Wong, Winson; Belch, Andrew; Lai, Raymond

    2005-09-01

    Recent cDNA microarray studies have reported the prognostic value of several genes in mantle cell lymphoma patients. We aimed to validate the prognostic significance of three of these genes: alpha-tubulin, cdc2, and CENP-F. The protein expression of alpha-tubulin, cdc2, and CENP-F was assessed using immunohistochemistry. Their immunoreactivity in 48 formalin-fixed/paraffin-embedded mantle cell lymphoma tumors was determined by estimating the percentage of positive cells. These results were correlated with the expression of proliferation marker Ki67 and survival. Of these 48 mantle cell lymphoma patients, 41 were men and seven were women. The median age at time of diagnosis was 64.5 years, and the overall median survival was 40 months. In benign lymph nodes, the expression of cdc2 and alpha-tubulin was restricted to the germinal centers; mantle zones were negative. Expression of CENP-F was more uniformly distributed. In mantle cell lymphoma, Ki67 significantly correlated with all three markers (P50%) and cdc2 (>25%) significantly correlated with shorter survival (Por=2 correlated with worse clinical outcome, and high clinical stage (ie 4 vs survival. The prognostic significance of cdc2 and Ki67 was independent of international prognostic index and clinical stage. We have validated the prognostic value of cdc2, and confirmed that of Ki67, in a cohort of mantle cell lymphoma patients. Immunohistochemical detection of cdc2 and Ki67 may be a useful and simple method in evaluating the prognosis of mantle cell lymphoma patients.

  4. Intraoperative blood loss independently predicts survival and recurrence after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Jiang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although numerous prognostic factors have been reported for colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM, few studies have reported intraoperative blood loss (IBL effects on clinical outcome after CRLM resection. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the clinical and histopathological characteristics of 139 patients who underwent liver resection for CRLM. The IBL cutoff volume was calculated using receiver operating characteristic curves. Overall survival (OS and recurrence free survival (RFS were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods. RESULTS: All patients underwent curative resection. The median follow up period was 25.0 months (range, 2.1-88.8. Body mass index (BMI and CRLM number and tumor size were associated with increased IBL. BMI (P=0.01; 95% CI = 1.3-8.5 and IBL (P500mL were 71%, 33%, and 0%, respectively (P<0.01. RFS of patients within three IBL volumes at the end of the first year were 67%, 38%, and 18%, respectively (P<0.01. CONCLUSIONS: IBL during CRLM resection is an independent predictor of long term survival and tumor recurrence, and its prognostic value was confirmed by a dose-response relationship.

  5. Radiofrequency Ablation of Colorectal Liver Metastases: Small Size Favorably Predicts Technique Effectiveness and Survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veltri, Andrea; Sacchetto, Paola; Tosetti, Irene; Pagano, Eva; Fava, Cesare; Gandini, Giovanni

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze long-term results of radiofrequency thermal ablation (RFA) for colorectal metastases (MTS), in order to evaluate predictors for adverse events, technique effectiveness, and survival. One hundred ninety-nine nonresectable MTS (0.5-8 cm; mean, 2.9 cm) in 122 patients underwent a total of 166 RFA sessions, percutaneously or during surgery. The technique was 'simple' or 'combined' with vascular occlusion. The mean follow-up time was 24.2 months. Complications, technique effectiveness, and survival rates were statistically analyzed. Adverse events occurred in 8.1% of lesions (major complication rate: 1.1%), 7.1% with simple and 16.7% with combined technique (p = 0.15). Early complete response was obtained in 151 lesions (81.2%), but 49 lesions (26.3%) recurred locally after a mean of 10.4 months. Sustained complete ablation was achieved in 66.7% of lesions ≤3 cm versus 33.3% of lesions >3 cm (p 3 cm (p = 0.006). We conclude that 'simple' RFA is safe and successful for MTS ≤3 cm, contributing to prolong survival when patients can be completely treated.

  6. Prognostic Value of Serum Caspase-Cleaved Cytokeratin-18 Levels before Liver Transplantation for One-Year Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Lorente

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Cytokeratin (CK-18 is the major intermediate filament protein in the liver and during hepatocyte apoptosis is cleaved by the action of caspases; the resulting fragments are released into the blood as caspase-cleaved cytokeratin (CCCK-18. Higher circulating levels of CCCK-18 have been found in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC than in healthy controls and than in cirrhotic patients. However, it is unknown whether serum CCCK-18 levels before liver transplantation (LT in patients with HCC could be used as a prognostic biomarker of one-year survival, and this was the objective of our study with 135 patients. At one year after LT, non-survivors showed higher serum CCCK-18 levels than survivors (p = 0.001. On binary logistic regression analysis, serum CCCK-18 levels >384 U/L were associated with death at one year (odds ratio = 19.801; 95% confidence interval = 5.301–73.972; p < 0.001 after controlling for deceased donor age. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve of serum CCCK-18 levels to predict death at one year was 77% (95% CI = 69%–84%; p < 0.001. The new finding of our study was that serum levels of CCCK-18 before LT in patients with HCC could be used as prognostic biomarker of survival.

  7. Prognostic Value of Serum Caspase-Cleaved Cytokeratin-18 Levels before Liver Transplantation for One-Year Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente, Leonardo; Rodriguez, Sergio T.; Sanz, Pablo; Pérez-Cejas, Antonia; Padilla, Javier; Díaz, Dácil; González, Antonio; Martín, María M.; Jiménez, Alejandro; Barrera, Manuel A.

    2016-01-01

    Cytokeratin (CK)-18 is the major intermediate filament protein in the liver and during hepatocyte apoptosis is cleaved by the action of caspases; the resulting fragments are released into the blood as caspase-cleaved cytokeratin (CCCK)-18. Higher circulating levels of CCCK-18 have been found in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than in healthy controls and than in cirrhotic patients. However, it is unknown whether serum CCCK-18 levels before liver transplantation (LT) in patients with HCC could be used as a prognostic biomarker of one-year survival, and this was the objective of our study with 135 patients. At one year after LT, non-survivors showed higher serum CCCK-18 levels than survivors (p = 0.001). On binary logistic regression analysis, serum CCCK-18 levels >384 U/L were associated with death at one year (odds ratio = 19.801; 95% confidence interval = 5.301–73.972; p < 0.001) after controlling for deceased donor age. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of serum CCCK-18 levels to predict death at one year was 77% (95% CI = 69%–84%; p < 0.001). The new finding of our study was that serum levels of CCCK-18 before LT in patients with HCC could be used as prognostic biomarker of survival. PMID:27618033

  8. Factors Predictive of Tumor Recurrence and Survival After Initial Complete Response of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma to Definitive Chemoradiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Ryu; Yamamoto, Sachiko; Iishi, Hiroyasu; Takeuchi, Yoji; Sugimoto, Naotoshi; Higashino, Koji; Uedo, Noriya; Tatsuta, Masaharu; Yano, Masahiko; Imai, Atsushi; Nishiyama, Kinji

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To assess factors predictive of recurrent disease and survival after achieving initial complete response (CR) to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for esophageal cancer. Methods and Materials: Patients who had clinical Stage I-IVA esophageal cancer and received definitive CRT between 2001 and 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. Results: Of 269 patients with esophageal cancer, 110 who achieved CR after definitive CRT were included in the analyses. Chemoradiotherapy mainly consisted of 2 cycles of cisplatin and fluorouracil with concurrent radiotherapy of 60 Gy in 30 fractions. We identified 28 recurrences and 28 deaths during follow-up. The cumulative 1- and 3-year recurrence rates were 18% and 32%, respectively. By univariate and multivariate analyses, tumor category (hazard ratio [HR] 6.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-30.2; p = 0.015) was an independent risk factor for local recurrence, whereas age (HR 3.9; 95% CI 1.1-14.0; p = 0.034) and primary tumor location (HR 4.5; 95% CI 1.6-12.4; p = 0.004) were independent risk factors for regional lymph node or distant recurrences. The cumulative overall 1- and 3-year survival rates were 91% and 66%, respectively. As expected, recurrence was associated with poor survival (p = 0.019). By univariate and multivariate analyses, primary tumor location (HR 3.8; 95% CI 1.2-12.0; p = 0.024) and interval to recurrence (HR 4.3; 95% CI 1.3-14.4; p = 0.018) were independent factors predictive of survival after recurrence. Conclusion: Risk of recurrence after definitive CRT for esophageal cancer was associated with tumor category, age, and primary tumor location; this information may help in improved prognostication for these patients.

  9. Deformable image registration as a tool to improve survival prediction after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer: results from the ACRIN 6657/I-SPY-1 trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahani, Nariman; Cohen, Eric; Hsieh, Meng-Kang; Weinstein, Susan P.; Pantalone, Lauren; Davatzikos, Christos; Kontos, Despina

    2018-02-01

    We examined the ability of DCE-MRI longitudinal features to give early prediction of recurrence-free survival (RFS) in women undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer, in a retrospective analysis of 106 women from the ISPY 1 cohort. These features were based on the voxel-wise changes seen in registered images taken before treatment and after the first round of chemotherapy. We computed the transformation field using a robust deformable image registration technique to match breast images from these two visits. Using the deformation field, parametric response maps (PRM) — a voxel-based feature analysis of longitudinal changes in images between visits — was computed for maps of four kinetic features (signal enhancement ratio, peak enhancement, and wash-in/wash-out slopes). A two-level discrete wavelet transform was applied to these PRMs to extract heterogeneity information about tumor change between visits. To estimate survival, a Cox proportional hazard model was applied with the C statistic as the measure of success in predicting RFS. The best PRM feature (as determined by C statistic in univariable analysis) was determined for each of the four kinetic features. The baseline model, incorporating functional tumor volume, age, race, and hormone response status, had a C statistic of 0.70 in predicting RFS. The model augmented with the four PRM features had a C statistic of 0.76. Thus, our results suggest that adding information on the texture of voxel-level changes in tumor kinetic response between registered images of first and second visits could improve early RFS prediction in breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

  10. Circulating C3 levels predict renal and global outcome in patients with renal vasculitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villacorta, Javier; Diaz-Crespo, Francisco; Acevedo, Mercedes; Cavero, Teresa; Guerrero, Carmen; Praga, Manuel; Fernandez-Juarez, Gema

    2016-11-01

    Several studies have demonstrated the crucial role of complement activation in the pathogenesis of ANCA-associated vasculitis. We aimed to assess the association between baseline serum C3 (sC3) levels and long-term outcomes in patients with renal vasculitis. This retrospective study included 111 patients with renal vasculitis from three hospitals who underwent a renal biopsy between 1997 and 2014. Serum levels of C3 were measured at the onset and the study population was divided into three tertiles according to sC3 concentrations (tertile 1 128 mg/dl). Patients with lower sC3 (tertile 1) were compared with those having higher levels of sC3 (tertile 2 and tertile 3). Histological, clinical, and laboratory data were recorded for analysis. The primary end point was the composite of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death from any cause. Lower sC3 levels were associated with a higher need for dialysis and lower response rate to treatment (p = 0.04 and p = 0.007, respectively). Renal and global survival at 1 and 5 years was 53 and 46 % in patients with lower sC3 (tertile 1) compared with 72 and 65 % in patients with higher sC3 (upper two tertiles) (p = 0.04). In a multivariate Cox-regression model, when adjusted by renal function and histopatholologic categories, lower sC3 remained as an independent predictor of ESRD and death (HR, 1.9; 95 % CI, 1.1 to 3.4; p = 0.02). Baseline serum C3 levels have an independent prognostic value in predicting long-term renal and global survival in patients with renal vasculitis.

  11. Low baseline levels of NK cells may predict a positive response to ipilimumab in melanoma therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tietze, Julia K; Angelova, Daniela; Heppt, Markus V; Ruzicka, Thomas; Berking, Carola

    2017-07-01

    The introduction of immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) has been a breakthrough in the therapy of metastatic melanoma. The influence of ICB on T-cell populations has been studied extensively, but little is known about the effect on NK cells. In this study, we analysed the relative and absolute amounts of NK cells and of the subpopulations of CD56 dim and CD56 bright NK cells among the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 32 patients with metastatic melanoma before and under treatment with ipilimumab or pembrolizumab by flow cytometry. In 15 (47%) patients, an abnormal low amount of NK cells was found at baseline. Analysis of the subpopulations showed also low or normal baseline levels for CD56 dim NK cells, whereas the baseline levels of CD56 bright NK cells were either normal or abnormally high. The relative and absolute amounts of NK cells and of CD56 dim and CD56 bright NK cell subpopulations in patients with a normal baseline did not change under treatment. However, patients with a low baseline of NK cells and CD56 dim NK cells showed a significant increase in these immune cell subsets, but the amounts remained to be lower than the normal baseline. The amount of CD56 bright NK cells was unaffected by treatment. The baseline levels of NK cells were correlated with the number of metastatic organs. Their proportion increased, whereas the expression of NKG2D decreased significantly when more than one organ was affected by metastases. Low baseline levels of NK cells and CD56 dim NK cells as well as normal baseline levels of CD56 bright NK cells correlated significantly with a positive response to ipilimumab but not to pembrolizumab. Survival curves of patients with low amounts of CD56 dim NK cells treated with ipilimumab showed a trend to longer survival. Normal baseline levels of CD56 bright NK cells were significantly correlated with longer survival as compared to patients with high baseline levels. In conclusion, analysis of the amounts of total NK cells

  12. Somatic mutation load of estrogen receptor-positive breast tumors predicts overall survival: an analysis of genome sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haricharan, Svasti; Bainbridge, Matthew N; Scheet, Paul; Brown, Powel H

    2014-07-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in women. While there are several effective therapies for breast cancer and important single gene prognostic/predictive markers, more than 40,000 women die from this disease every year. The increasing availability of large-scale genomic datasets provides opportunities for identifying factors that influence breast cancer survival in smaller, well-defined subsets. The purpose of this study was to investigate the genomic landscape of various breast cancer subtypes and its potential associations with clinical outcomes. We used statistical analysis of sequence data generated by the Cancer Genome Atlas initiative including somatic mutation load (SML) analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, gene mutational frequency, and mutational enrichment evaluation to study the genomic landscape of breast cancer. We show that ER(+), but not ER(-), tumors with high SML associate with poor overall survival (HR = 2.02). Further, these high mutation load tumors are enriched for coincident mutations in both DNA damage repair and ER signature genes. While it is known that somatic mutations in specific genes affect breast cancer survival, this study is the first to identify that SML may constitute an important global signature for a subset of ER(+) tumors prone to high mortality. Moreover, although somatic mutations in individual DNA damage genes affect clinical outcome, our results indicate that coincident mutations in DNA damage response and signature ER genes may prove more informative for ER(+) breast cancer survival. Next generation sequencing may prove an essential tool for identifying pathways underlying poor outcomes and for tailoring therapeutic strategies.

  13. Multi-institutional Nomogram Predicting Survival Free From Salvage Whole Brain Radiation After Radiosurgery in Patients With Brain Metastases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorovets, Daniel; Ayala-Peacock, Diandra; Tybor, David J.; Rava, Paul; Ebner, Daniel; Cielo, Deus; Norén, Georg; Wazer, David E.; Chan, Michael; Hepel, Jaroslaw T.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Optimal patient selection for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) as the initial treatment for brain metastases is complicated and controversial. This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts survival without salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after upfront SRS. Methods and Materials: Multi-institutional data were analyzed from 895 patients with 2095 lesions treated with SRS without prior or planned WBRT. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent pre-SRS predictors of WBRT-free survival, which were integrated to build a nomogram that was subjected to bootstrap validation. Results: Median WBRT-free survival was 8 months (range, 0.1-139 months). Significant independent predictors for inferior WBRT-free survival were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.1 for each 10-year increase), HER2(−) breast cancer (HR 1.6 relative to other histologic features), colorectal cancer (HR 1.4 relative to other histologic features), increasing number of brain metastases (HR 1.09, 1.32, 1.37, and 1.87 for 2, 3, 4, and 5+ lesions, respectively), presence of neurologic symptoms (HR 1.26), progressive systemic disease (HR 1.35), and increasing extracranial disease burden (HR 1.31 for oligometastatic and HR 1.56 for widespread). Additionally, HER2(+) breast cancer (HR 0.81) and melanoma (HR 1.11) trended toward significance. The independently weighted hazard ratios were used to create a nomogram to display estimated probabilities of 6-month and 12-month WBRT-free survival with a corrected Harrell's C concordance statistic of 0.62. Conclusions: Our nomogram can be used at initial evaluation to help select patients best suited for upfront SRS for brain metastases while reducing expense and morbidity in patients who derive minimal or no benefit.

  14. Multi-institutional Nomogram Predicting Survival Free From Salvage Whole Brain Radiation After Radiosurgery in Patients With Brain Metastases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorovets, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Perlmutter Cancer Center, NYU School of Medicine, New York, New York (United States); Ayala-Peacock, Diandra [Department of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee (United States); Tybor, David J. [Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Rava, Paul [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, UMass Memorial Medical Center, University of Massachusetts School of Medicine, Worcester, Massachusetts (United States); Ebner, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Cielo, Deus; Norén, Georg [Department of Neurosurgery, Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Wazer, David E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Chan, Michael [Department of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina (United States); Hepel, Jaroslaw T., E-mail: jhepel@lifespan.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Providence, Rhode Island (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Purpose: Optimal patient selection for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) as the initial treatment for brain metastases is complicated and controversial. This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts survival without salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after upfront SRS. Methods and Materials: Multi-institutional data were analyzed from 895 patients with 2095 lesions treated with SRS without prior or planned WBRT. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent pre-SRS predictors of WBRT-free survival, which were integrated to build a nomogram that was subjected to bootstrap validation. Results: Median WBRT-free survival was 8 months (range, 0.1-139 months). Significant independent predictors for inferior WBRT-free survival were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.1 for each 10-year increase), HER2(−) breast cancer (HR 1.6 relative to other histologic features), colorectal cancer (HR 1.4 relative to other histologic features), increasing number of brain metastases (HR 1.09, 1.32, 1.37, and 1.87 for 2, 3, 4, and 5+ lesions, respectively), presence of neurologic symptoms (HR 1.26), progressive systemic disease (HR 1.35), and increasing extracranial disease burden (HR 1.31 for oligometastatic and HR 1.56 for widespread). Additionally, HER2(+) breast cancer (HR 0.81) and melanoma (HR 1.11) trended toward significance. The independently weighted hazard ratios were used to create a nomogram to display estimated probabilities of 6-month and 12-month WBRT-free survival with a corrected Harrell's C concordance statistic of 0.62. Conclusions: Our nomogram can be used at initial evaluation to help select patients best suited for upfront SRS for brain metastases while reducing expense and morbidity in patients who derive minimal or no benefit.

  15. An ensemble machine learning approach to predict survival in breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djebbari, Amira; Liu, Ziying; Phan, Sieu; Famili, Fazel

    2008-01-01

    Current breast cancer predictive signatures are not unique. Can we use this fact to our advantage to improve prediction? From the machine learning perspective, it is well known that combining multiple classifiers can improve classification performance. We propose an ensemble machine learning approach which consists of choosing feature subsets and learning predictive models from them. We then combine models based on certain model fusion criteria and we also introduce a tuning parameter to control sensitivity. Our method significantly improves classification performance with a particular emphasis on sensitivity which is critical to avoid misclassifying poor prognosis patients as good prognosis.

  16. Comparison of continuous versus categorical tumor measurement-based metrics to predict overall survival in cancer treatment trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Ming-Wen; Mandrekar, Sumithra J.; Branda, Megan E.; Hillman, Shauna L.; Adjei, Alex A.; Pitot, Henry; Goldberg, Richard M.; Sargent, Daniel J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The categorical definition of response assessed via the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors has documented limitations. We sought to identify alternative metrics for tumor response that improve prediction of overall survival. Experimental Design Individual patient data from three North Central Cancer Treatment Group trials (N0026, n=117; N9741, n=1109; N9841, n=332) were used. Continuous metrics of tumor size based on longitudinal tumor measurements were considered in addition to a trichotomized response (TriTR: Response vs. Stable vs. Progression). Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for treatment arm and baseline tumor burden, were used to assess the impact of the metrics on subsequent overall survival, using a landmark analysis approach at 12-, 16- and 24-weeks post baseline. Model discrimination was evaluated using the concordance (c) index. Results The overall best response rates for the three trials were 26%, 45%, and 25% respectively. While nearly all metrics were statistically significantly associated with overall survival at the different landmark time points, the c-indices for the traditional response metrics ranged from 0.59-0.65; for the continuous metrics from 0.60-0.66 and for the TriTR metrics from 0.64-0.69. The c-indices for TriTR at 12-weeks were comparable to those at 16- and 24-weeks. Conclusions Continuous tumor-measurement-based metrics provided no predictive improvement over traditional response based metrics or TriTR; TriTR had better predictive ability than best TriTR or confirmed response. If confirmed, TriTR represents a promising endpoint for future Phase II trials. PMID:21880789

  17. The prediction of progression-free and overall survival in women with an advanced stage of epithelial ovarian carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerestein, C G; Eijkemans, M J C; de Jong, D; van der Burg, M E L; Dykgraaf, R H M; Kooi, G S; Baalbergen, A; Burger, C W; Ansink, A C

    2009-02-01

    Prognosis in women with ovarian cancer mainly depends on International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and the ability to perform optimal cytoreductive surgery. Since ovarian cancer has a heterogeneous presentation and clinical course, predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in the individual patient is difficult. The objective of this study was to determine predictors of PFS and OS in women with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) after primary cytoreductive surgery and first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. Retrospective observational study. Two teaching hospitals and one university hospital in the south-western part of the Netherlands. Women with advanced stage EOC. All women who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC followed by first-line platinum-based chemotherapy between January 1998 and October 2004 were identified. To investigate independent predictors of PFS and OS, a Cox' proportional hazard model was used. Nomograms were generated with the identified predictive parameters. The primary outcome measure was OS and the secondary outcome measures were response and PFS. A total of 118 women entered the study protocol. Median PFS and OS were 15 and 44 months, respectively. Preoperative platelet count (P = 0.007), and residual disease statistic of 0.63. Predictive parameters for OS were preoperative haemoglobin serum concentration (P = 0.012), preoperative platelet counts (P = 0.031) and residual disease statistic of 0.67. PFS could be predicted by postoperative residual disease and preoperative platelet counts, whereas residual disease, preoperative platelet counts and preoperative haemoglobin serum concentration were predictive for OS. The proposed nomograms need to be externally validated.

  18. Lung Shunt Fraction prior to Yttrium-90 Radioembolization Predicts Survival in Patients with Neuroendocrine Liver Metastases: Single-Center Prospective Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ludwig, Johannes M. [Yale University, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging (United States); Ambinder, Emily McIntosh [John Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic Radiology (United States); Ghodadra, Anish [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology (United States); Xing, Minzhi [Yale University, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging (United States); Prajapati, Hasmukh J. [The University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology (United States); Kim, Hyun S., E-mail: kevin.kim@yale.edu [Yale University, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging (United States)

    2016-07-15

    ObjectiveTo investigate survival outcomes following radioembolization with Yttrium-90 (Y90) for neuroendocrine tumor liver metastases (NETLMs). This study was designed to assess the efficacy of Y90 radioembolization and to evaluate lung shunt fraction (LSF) as a predictor for survival.MethodsA single-center, prospective study of 44 consecutive patients (median age: 58.5 years, 29.5 % male) diagnosed with pancreatic (52.3 %) or carcinoid (47.7 %) NETLMs from 2006 to 2012 who underwent Y90 radioembolization was performed. Patients’ baseline characteristics, including LSF and median overall survival (OS) from first Y90 radioembolization, were recorded and compared between patients with high (≥10 %) and low (<10 %) LSF. Baseline comparisons were performed using Fisher’s exact tests for categorical and Mann–Whitney U test for continuous variables. Survival was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate (Wilcoxon rank-sum test) and multivariate analyses (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) for risk factor analysis were performed.ResultsThere was no statistically significant difference in age, gender, race, tumor properties, or previous treatments between patients with high (n = 15) and low (n = 29) LSF. The median OS was 27.4 months (95 %CI 12.73–55.23), with 4.77 months (95 %CI 2.87–26.73) for high and 42.77 months (95 %CI 18.47–59.73) for low LSF (p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis identified high LSF (p = 0.001), total serum bilirubin >1.2 mg (p = 0.016), and lack of pretreatment with octreotide (p = 0.01) as independent prognostic factors for poorer survival. Tumor type and total radiation dose did not predict survival.ConclusionsLSF ≥10 %, elevated bilirubin levels, and lack of pretreatment with octreotide were found to be independent prognostic factors for poorer survival in patients with NETLMs.

  19. Winter Survival of Individual Honey Bees and Honey Bee Colonies Depends on Level of Varroa destructor Infestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dooremalen, Coby; Gerritsen, Lonne; Cornelissen, Bram; van der Steen, Jozef J. M.; van Langevelde, Frank; Blacquière, Tjeerd

    2012-01-01

    Background Recent elevated winter loss of honey bee colonies is a major concern. The presence of the mite Varroa destructor in colonies places an important pressure on bee health. V. destructor shortens the lifespan of individual bees, while long lifespan during winter is a primary requirement to survive until the next spring. We investigated in two subsequent years the effects of different levels of V. destructor infestation during the transition from short-lived summer bees to long-lived winter bees on the lifespan of individual bees and the survival of bee colonies during winter. Colonies treated earlier in the season to reduce V. destructor infestation during the development of winter bees were expected to have longer bee lifespan and higher colony survival after winter. Methodology/Principal Findings Mite infestation was reduced using acaricide treatments during different months (July, August, September, or not treated). We found that the number of capped brood cells decreased drastically between August and November, while at the same time, the lifespan of the bees (marked cohorts) increased indicating the transition to winter bees. Low V. destructor infestation levels before and during the transition to winter bees resulted in an increase in lifespan of bees and higher colony survival compared to colonies that were not treated and that had higher infestation levels. A variety of stress-related factors could have contributed to the variation in longevity and winter survival that we found between years. Conclusions/Significance This study contributes to theory about the multiple causes for the recent elevated colony losses in honey bees. Our study shows the correlation between long lifespan of winter bees and colony loss in spring. Moreover, we show that colonies treated earlier in the season had reduced V. destructor infestation during the development of winter bees resulting in longer bee lifespan and higher colony survival after winter. PMID:22558421

  20. Mitral Regurgitation Severity and Left Ventricular Systolic Dimension Predict Survival in Young Cavalier King Charles Spaniels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimann, M. J.; Moller, J. E.; Haggstrom, J.

    2017-01-01

    Background Development and progression of myxomatous mitral valve disease (MMVD) in dogs are difficult to predict. Identification at a young age of dogs at high risk of adverse outcome in the future is desirable. Hypothesis/Objectives To study the predictive value of selected clinical.......016) mortality increased with increasing left ventricular end-systolic internal dimension normalized for body weight (LVIDSN). Conclusions and clinical importance Moderate to severe MR, even if intermittent, and increased LVIDSN in dogs

  1. Automated digital volume measurement of melanoma metastases in sentinel nodes predicts disease recurrence and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber-Hansen, Rikke; Nyengaard, Jens R; Hamilton-Dutoit, Stephen J

    2011-01-01

    statistics (categorical data). In addition, disease-free and melanoma-specific survivals were calculated. Mean metastatic volume per patient was 10.6 mm(3) (median 0.05 mm(3); range 0.0001-621.3 mm(3)) and 9.62 mm(3) (median 0.05 mm(3); range 0.00001-564.3 mm(3)) with manual and digital measurement......, respectively. The Bland-Altman plot showed an even distribution of the differences, and the kappa statistic was 0.84. In multivariate analysis, both manual and digital metastasis volume measurements were independent progression markers when corrected for primary tumour thickness [manual: hazard ratio (HR): 1...

  2. Low cardiac output predicts development of hepatorenal syndrome and survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krag, A; Bendtsen, F; Møller, S

    2010-01-01

    (130 (SD 46) vs 78 (SD 29) mumol/l, psyndrome type 1 within 3 months was higher in the group with low CI than in the high CI group (43% vs 5%, p = 0.04). Patients with the lowest CI (N = 8) had significantly poorer survival at 3, 9, and 12 months......OBJECTIVES: Recent studies suggest that cardiac dysfunction precedes development of the hepatorenal syndrome. In this follow-up study, we aimed to investigate the relation between cardiac and renal function in patients with cirrhosis and ascites and the impact of cardiac systolic function...

  3. Development and internal validation of a prognostic model to predict recurrence free survival in patients with adult granulosa cell tumors of the ovary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Meurs, Hannah S.; Schuit, Ewoud; Horlings, Hugo M.; van der Velden, Jacobus; van Driel, Willemien J.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Kenter, Gemma G.; Buist, Marrije R.

    2014-01-01

    Models to predict the probability of recurrence free survival exist for various types of malignancies, but a model for recurrence free survival in individuals with an adult granulosa cell tumor (GCT) of the ovary is lacking. We aimed to develop and internally validate such a prognostic model. We

  4. Impact of geographic area level on measuring socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival in New South Wales, Australia: A period analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanbury, Julia F; Baade, Peter D; Yu, Yan; Yu, Xue Qin

    2016-08-01

    Area-based socioeconomic measures are widely used in health research. In theory, the larger the area used the more individual misclassification is introduced, thus biasing the association between such area level measures and health outcomes. In this study, we examined the socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival using two geographic area-based measures to see if the size of the area matters. We used population-based cancer registry data for patients diagnosed with one of 10 major cancers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia during 2004-2008. Patients were assigned index measures of socioeconomic status (SES) based on two area-level units, census Collection District (CD) and Local Government Area (LGA) of their address at diagnosis. Five-year relative survival was estimated using the period approach for patients alive during 2004-2008, for each socioeconomic quintile at each area-level for each cancer. Poisson-regression modelling was used to adjust for socioeconomic quintile, sex, age-group at diagnosis and disease stage at diagnosis. The relative excess risk of death (RER) by socioeconomic quintile derived from this modelling was compared between area-units. We found extensive disagreement in SES classification between CD and LGA levels across all socioeconomic quintiles, particularly for more disadvantaged groups. In general, more disadvantaged patients had significantly lower survival than the least disadvantaged group for both CD and LGA classifications. The socioeconomic survival disparities detected by CD classification were larger than those detected by LGA. Adjusted RER estimates by SES were similar for most cancers when measured at both area levels. We found that classifying patient SES by the widely used Australian geographic unit LGA results in underestimation of survival disparities for several cancers compared to when SES is classified at the geographically smaller CD level. Despite this, our RER of death estimates derived from these survival

  5. Optimizing survivability of multi-state systems with multi-level protection by multi-processor genetic algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitin, Gregory; Dai Yuanshun; Xie Min; Leng Poh, Kim

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we consider vulnerable systems which can have different states corresponding to different combinations of available elements composing the system. Each state can be characterized by a performance rate, which is the quantitative measure of a system's ability to perform its task. Both the impact of external factors (stress) and internal causes (failures) affect system survivability, which is determined as probability of meeting a given demand. In order to increase the survivability of the system, a multi-level protection is applied to its subsystems. This means that a subsystem and its inner level of protection are in their turn protected by the protection of an outer level. This double-protected subsystem has its outer protection and so forth. In such systems, the protected subsystems can be destroyed only if all of the levels of their protection are destroyed. Each level of protection can be destroyed only if all of the outer levels of protection are destroyed. We formulate the problem of finding the structure of series-parallel multi-state system (including choice of system elements, choice of structure of multi-level protection and choice of protection methods) in order to achieve a desired level of system survivability by the minimal cost. An algorithm based on the universal generating function method is used for determination of the system survivability. A multi-processor version of genetic algorithm is used as optimization tool in order to solve the structure optimization problem. An application example is presented to illustrate the procedure presented in this paper

  6. Relative value of clinical variables, bicycle ergometry, rest radionuclide ventriculography and 24 hour ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring at discharge to predict 1 year survival after myocardial infarction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.M. Fioretti (Paolo); R.W. Brower (Ronald); M.L. Simoons (Maarten); H.J. ten Katen (Harald); A. Beelen (Anita); T. Baardman (Taco); J. Lubsen (Jacob); P.G. Hugenholtz (Paul)

    1986-01-01

    textabstractThe relative value of predischarge clinical variables, bicycle ergometry, radionuclide ventriculography and 24 hour ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring for predicting survival during the first year in 351 hospital survivors of acute myocardial infarction was assessed. Discriminant

  7. Genetic variants in fanconi anemia pathway genes BRCA2 and FANCA predict melanoma survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jieyun; Liu, Hongliang; Liu, Zhensheng; Wang, Li-E; Chen, Wei V; Zhu, Dakai; Amos, Christopher I; Fang, Shenying; Lee, Jeffrey E; Wei, Qingyi

    2015-02-01

    Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is the most lethal skin cancer. The Fanconi anemia (FA) pathway involved in DNA crosslink repair may affect CM susceptibility and prognosis. Using data derived from published genome-wide association study, we comprehensively analyzed the associations of 2,339 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 14 autosomal FA genes with overall survival (OS) in 858 CM patients. By performing false-positive report probability corrections and stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, we identified significant associations between CM OS and four putatively functional SNPs: BRCA2 rs10492396 (AG vs. GG: adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR)=1.85, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.16-2.95, P=0.010), rs206118 (CC vs. TT+TC: adjHR=2.44, 95% CI=1.27-4.67, P=0.007), rs3752447 (CC vs. TT+TC: adjHR=2.10, 95% CI=1.38-3.18, P=0.0005), and FANCA rs62068372 (TT vs. CC+CT: adjHR=1.85, 95% CI=1.27-2.69, P=0.001). Moreover, patients with an increasing number of unfavorable genotypes (NUG) of these loci had markedly reduced OS and melanoma-specific survival (MSS). The final model incorporating with NUG, tumor stage, and Breslow thickness showed an improved discriminatory ability to classify both 5-year OS and 5-year MSS. Additional investigations, preferably prospective studies, are needed to validate our findings.

  8. Immune infiltrates as predictive markers of survival in pancreatic cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Pia eProtti

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Pancreatic cancer is a devastating disease with dismal prognosis. The tumor microenvironment is composed by multiple cell types, molecular factors and extracellular matrix forming a strong desmoplastic reaction, which is a hallmark of the disease. A complex cross-talk between tumor cells and the stroma exists with reciprocal influence that dictates tumor progression and ultimately the clinical outcome. In this context, tumor infiltrating immune cells through secretion of chemokine and cytokines exert an important regulatory role. Here we review the correlation between the immune infiltrates, evaluated on tumor samples of pancreatic cancer patients underwent surgical resection, and disease free and/or overall survival after surgery. Specifically, we focus on tumor infiltrating lymphocytes, mast cells and macrophages that all contribute to a Th2-type inflammatory and immunosuppressive microenvironment. In these patients tumor immune infiltrates not only do not contribute to disease eradication but rather the features of Th2-type inflammation and immunosuppression is significantly associated with more rapid disease progression and reduced survival.

  9. Expression of Aurora-B and FOXM1 predict poor survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Pei-Yu; Luo, Dong-Hua; Mai, Hai-Qiang [State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou (China); Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Department of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma, Guangzhou (China); Li, Yan; Zeng, Ting-Ting; Li, Meng-Qing [State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou (China); Hou, Xue; Zhang, Li [State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou (China); Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Department of Medical Oncology, Guangzhou (China)

    2015-08-15

    The purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between Aurora-B, FOXM1, and clinical outcomes in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who were treated with a combination of induction chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The expression of Aurora-B and FOXM1 were investigated by immunohistochemistry using a tissue microarray (TMA) containing samples from 166 NPC patients who were treated with cisplatin (DDP) + fluorouracil (5-FU) induction chemotherapy and radiotherapy between 1999 and 2005. The relationship of Aurora-B, FOXM1, and survival of these NPC patients was analyzed. Informative TMA results were obtained in 91 tumor cases for Aurora-B and 93 tumor cases for FOXM1. The 8-year failure-free survival rate (FFS) for the Aurora-B-negative and Aurora-B-positive group was 65.6 and 37.3 %, respectively (p = 0.024), and the 8-year distant FFS (D-FFS) rate was 65.6 and 41.5 %, respectively (p = 0.047). The 8-year overall survival (OS) in the FOXM1-negative group was moderately higher than in the FOXM1-positive group (58.4 vs 39.1 %, p = 0.081). Cox regression analysis revealed that for FFS, Aurora-B expression was a significant prognostic factor (p = 0.025), while for D-FFS, Aurora-B expression was a marginally significant prognostic factor (p = 0.056). When FOXM1 expression was analyzed, the Cox regression analyses showed that FOXM1 expression was a marginally significant prognostic factor (p = 0.056) for OS. Correlation analysis showed that Aurora-B and FOXM1 expression had no significant correlation. Aurora-B and FOXM1 were both adverse prognostic markers for NPC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. However, the two markers had no significant correlation. (orig.) [German] Ziel war die Untersuchung der Beziehung zwischen Aurora-B, FOXM1 und den klinischen Ergebnissen bei Patienten mit nasopharyngealem Karzinom (NPC), die mit einer Kombinationstherapie aus Induktionschemotherapie und Radiotherapie behandelt wurden. Die Expression von Aurora-B und

  10. A lymph node ratio of 10% is predictive of survival in stage III colon cancer: a French regional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbagh, Charles; Mauvais, François; Cosse, Cyril; Rebibo, Lionel; Joly, Jean-Paul; Dromer, Didier; Aubert, Christine; Carton, Sophie; Dron, Bernard; Dadamessi, Innocenti; Maes, Bernard; Perrier, Guillaume; Manaouil, David; Fontaine, Jean-François; Gozy, Michel; Panis, Xavier; Foncelle, Pierre Henri; de Fresnoy, Hugues; Leroux, Fabien; Vaneslander, Pierre; Ghighi, Caroline; Regimbeau, Jean-Marc

    2014-01-01

    Lymph node ratio (LNR) (positive lymph nodes/sampled lymph nodes) is predictive of survival in colon cancer. The aim of the present study was to validate the LNR as a prognostic factor and to determine the optimum LNR cutoff for distinguishing between "good prognosis" and "poor prognosis" colon cancer patients. From January 2003 to December 2007, patients with TNM stage III colon cancer operated on with at least of 3 years of follow-up and not lost to follow-up were included in this retrospective study. The two primary endpoints were 3-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) as a function of the LNR groups and the cutoff. One hundred seventy-eight patients were included. There was no correlation between the LNR group and 3-year OS (P=0.06) and a significant correlation between the LNR group and 3-year DFS (P=0.03). The optimal LNR cutoff of 10% was significantly correlated with 3-year OS (P=0.02) and DFS (P=0.02). The LNR was not an accurate prognostic factor when fewer than 12 lymph nodes were sampled. Clarification and simplification of the LNR classification are prerequisites for use of this system in randomized control trials. An LNR of 10% appears to be the optimal cutoff.

  11. Additive survival least square support vector machines: A simulation study and its application to cervical cancer prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khotimah, Chusnul; Purnami, Santi Wulan; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi; Chosuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Sriplung, Hutcha

    2017-11-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVMs) has been widely applied for prediction in many fields. Recently, SVM is also developed for survival analysis. In this study, Additive Survival Least Square SVM (A-SURLSSVM) approach is used to analyze cervical cancer dataset and its performance is compared with the Cox model as a benchmark. The comparison is evaluated based on the prognostic index produced: concordance index (c-index), log rank, and hazard ratio. The higher prognostic index represents the better performance of the corresponding methods. This work also applied feature selection to choose important features using backward elimination technique based on the c-index criterion. The cervical cancer dataset consists of 172 patients. The empirical results show that nine out of the twelve features: age at marriage, age of first getting menstruation, age, parity, type of treatment, history of family planning, stadium, long-time of menstruation, and anemia status are selected as relevant features that affect the survival time of cervical cancer patients. In addition, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated through a simulation study with the different number of features and censoring percentages. Two out of three performance measures (c-index and hazard ratio) obtained from A-SURLSSVM consistently yield better results than the ones obtained from Cox model when it is applied on both simulated and cervical cancer data. Moreover, the simulation study showed that A-SURLSSVM performs better when the percentage of censoring data is small.

  12. Prediction of dimethyl disulfide levels from biosolids using statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Steven A; Vilalai, Sirapong; Arispe, Susanna; Kim, Hyunook; McConnell, Laura L; Torrents, Alba; Peot, Christopher; Ramirez, Mark

    2005-01-01

    Two statistical models were used to predict the concentration of dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) released from biosolids produced by an advanced wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located in Washington, DC, USA. The plant concentrates sludge from primary sedimentation basins in gravity thickeners (GT) and sludge from secondary sedimentation basins in dissolved air flotation (DAF) thickeners. The thickened sludge is pumped into blending tanks and then fed into centrifuges for dewatering. The dewatered sludge is then conditioned with lime before trucking out from the plant. DMDS, along with other volatile sulfur and nitrogen-containing chemicals, is known to contribute to biosolids odors. These models identified oxidation/reduction potential (ORP) values of a GT and DAF, the amount of sludge dewatered by centrifuges, and the blend ratio between GT thickened sludge and DAF thickened sludge in blending tanks as control variables. The accuracy of the developed regression models was evaluated by checking the adjusted R2 of the regression as well as the signs of coefficients associated with each variable. In general, both models explained observed DMDS levels in sludge headspace samples. The adjusted R2 value of the regression models 1 and 2 were 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. Coefficients for each regression model also had the correct sign. Using the developed models, plant operators can adjust the controllable variables to proactively decrease this odorant. Therefore, these models are a useful tool in biosolids management at WWTPs.

  13. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  14. Prescription dose and fractionation predict improved survival after stereotactic radiotherapy for brainstem metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leeman Jonathan E

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Brainstem metastases represent an uncommon clinical presentation that is associated with a poor prognosis. Treatment options are limited given the unacceptable risks associated with surgical resection in this location. However, without local control, symptoms including progressive cranial nerve dysfunction are frequently observed. The objective of this study was to determine the outcomes associated with linear accelerator-based stereotactic radiotherapy or radiosurgery (SRT/SRS of brainstem metastases. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 38 tumors in 36 patients treated with SRT/SRS between February 2003 and December 2011. Treatment was delivered with the Cyberknife™ or Trilogy™ radiosurgical systems. The median age of patients was 62 (range: 28–89. Primary pathologies included 14 lung, 7 breast, 4 colon and 11 others. Sixteen patients (44% had received whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT prior to SRT/SRS; ten had received prior SRT/SRS at a different site (28%. The median tumor volume was 0.94 cm3 (range: 0.01-4.2 with a median prescription dose of 17 Gy (range: 12–24 delivered in 1–5 fractions. Results Median follow-up for the cohort was 3.2 months (range: 0.4-20.6. Nineteen patients (52% had an MRI follow-up available for review. Of these, one patient experienced local failure corresponding to an actuarial 6-month local control of 93%. Fifteen of the patients with available follow-up imaging (79% experienced intracranial failure outside of the treatment volume. The median time to distant intracranial failure was 2.1 months. Six of the 15 patients with distant intracranial failure (40% had received previous WBRT. The actuarial overall survival rates at 6- and 12-months were 27% and 8%, respectively. Predictors of survival included Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA score, greater number of treatment fractions, and higher prescription dose. Three patients experienced acute treatment-related toxicity consisting of

  15. Deep radiomic prediction with clinical predictors of the survival in patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasirudina, Radin A.; Näppi, Janne J.; Watari, Chinatsu; Matsuhiro, Mikio; Hironaka, Toru; Kido, Shoji; Yoshida, Hiroyuki

    2018-02-01

    We developed and evaluated the effect of our deep-learning-derived radiomic features, called deep radiomic features (DRFs), together with their combination with clinical predictors, on the prediction of the overall survival of patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). We retrospectively identified 70 RA-ILD patients with thin-section lung CT and pulmonary function tests. An experienced observer delineated regions of interest (ROIs) from the lung regions on the CT images, and labeled them into one of four ILD patterns (ground-class opacity, reticulation, consolidation, and honeycombing) or a normal pattern. Small image patches centered at individual pixels on these ROIs were extracted and labeled with the class of the ROI to which the patch belonged. A deep convolutional neural network (DCNN), which consists of a series of convolutional layers for feature extraction and a series of fully connected layers, was trained and validated with 5-fold cross-validation for classifying the image patches into one of the above five patterns. A DRF vector for each patch was identified as the output of the last convolutional layer of the DCNN. Statistical moments of each element of the DRF vectors were computed to derive a DRF vector that characterizes the patient. The DRF vector was subjected to a Cox proportional hazards model with elastic-net penalty for predicting the survival of the patient. Evaluation was performed by use of bootstrapping with 2,000 replications, where concordance index (C-index) was used as a comparative performance metric. Preliminary results on clinical predictors, DRFs, and their combinations thereof showed (a) Gender and Age: C-index 64.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 51.7, 77.9]; (b) gender, age, and physiology (GAP index): C-index: 78.5% [CI: 70.50 86.51], P < 0.0001 in comparison with (a); (c) DRFs: C-index 85.5% [CI: 73.4, 99.6], P < 0.0001 in comparison with (b); and (d) DRF and GAP: C-index 91.0% [CI: 84

  16. Post-treatment changes of tumour perfusion parameters can help to predict survival in patients with high-grade astrocytoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanz-Requena, Roberto; Marti-Bonmati, Luis [Hospital Quironsalud Valencia, Radiology Department, Valencia (Spain); Hospital Universitari i Politecnic La Fe, Grupo de Investigacion Biomedica en Imagen, Valencia (Spain); Revert-Ventura, Antonio J.; Salame-Gamarra, Fares [Hospital de Manises, Radiology Department, Manises (Spain); Garcia-Marti, Gracian [Hospital Quironsalud Valencia, Radiology Department, Valencia (Spain); Hospital Universitari i Politecnic La Fe, Grupo de Investigacion Biomedica en Imagen, Valencia (Spain); CIBER-SAM, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid (Spain); Perez-Girbes, Alexandre [Hospital Universitari i Politecnic La Fe, Grupo de Investigacion Biomedica en Imagen, Valencia (Spain); Molla-Olmos, Enrique [Hospital La Ribera, Radiology Department, Alzira (Spain)

    2017-08-15

    Vascular characteristics of tumour and peritumoral volumes of high-grade gliomas change with treatment. This work evaluates the variations of T2*-weighted perfusion parameters as overall survival (OS) predictors. Forty-five patients with histologically confirmed high-grade astrocytoma (8 grade III and 37 grade IV) were included. All patients underwent pre- and post-treatment T2*-weighted contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Tumour, peritumoral and control volumes were segmented. Relative variations of cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), mean transit time (MTT), K{sup trans-T2*}, k{sub ep-T2*}, v{sub e-T2*} and v{sub p-T2*} were calculated. Differences regarding tumour grade and surgical resection extension were evaluated with ANOVA tests. For each parameter, two groups were defined by non-supervised clusterisation. Survival analysis were performed on these groups. For the tumour region, the 90th percentile increase or stagnation of CBV was associated with shorter survival, while a decrease related to longer survival (393 ± 189 vs 594 ± 294 days; log-rank p = 0.019; Cox hazard-ratio, 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-4.74). K{sup trans-T2*} showed similar results (414 ± 177 vs 553 ± 312 days; log-rank p = 0.037; hazard-ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.03-4.65). The peritumoral area values showed no relationship with OS. Post-treatment variations of the highest CBV and K{sup trans-T2*} values in the tumour volume are predictive factors of OS in patients with high-grade gliomas. (orig.)

  17. Low Preoperative Prognostic Nutritional Index Predicts Poor Survival Post-gastrectomy in Elderly Patients with Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Katsunobu; Tamura, Tatsuro; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Amano, Ryosuke; Kubo, Naoshi; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Yashiro, Masakazu; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Ohira, Masaichi; Hirakawa, Kosei

    2016-10-01

    Preoperative nutritional status may predict short- and long-term outcomes of patients with cancer. The aim of this study was to clarify the impact of preoperative nutritional status on outcomes of elderly patients who have undergone gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC). A review examining 147 patients treated for GC by gastrectomy at our institution between January 2004 and December 2011 was conducted. Onodera's prognostic nutritional index (PNI) was invoked, using an optimal cutpoint to stratify patients by high (PNI > 43.8; n = 84) or low (PNI ≤ 43.8; n = 63) nutritional status. Clinicopathologic features and short- and long-term outcomes, including the cause of death, were compared. In multivariate analysis, low PNI was identified as an independent correlate of poor 5-year overall survival (OS). In subgroup analysis, 5-year OS rates for patients with stage 1 GC were significantly worse in the low PNI (vs. high PNI) patient subset, which also posed a significantly higher risk of death from other disease; however, 5-year cancer-specific survival and PNI were unrelated. Deaths from recurrence in both groups were statistically similar, and morbidity rates did not differ significantly by group. PNI is useful in predicting long-term outcomes of elderly patients surgically treated for GC, helping to identify those at high risk of death from other disease. In an effort to improve patient outcomes, nutritional status and oncologic staging merit attention.

  18. Mesothelin-specific Immune Responses Predict Survival of Patients With Brain Metastasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhenjiang, Liu; Rao, Martin; Luo, Xiaohua

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced malignancies, e.g. lung cancer, ovarian cancer or melanoma, frequently present with brain metastases. Clinical presentation and disease progression of cancer is in part shaped by the interaction of the immune system with malignant cells. Antigen-targeted immune ...... of the primary tumor origin. Analyses of immunological markers could potentially serve as prognostic markers in patients with brain metastases and help to select patients in need for adjunct, immunological, treatment strategies....... were tested for interferon gamma (IFN-γ) production, after which univariate and multivariate analyses (Cox stepwise regression model) were performed to identify independent clinical and immunological factors associated with patient survival. Patients were followed-up for at least 500days after surgery...

  19. The Neutrophil-Platelet Score (NPS Predicts Survival in Primary Operable Colorectal Cancer and a Variety of Common Cancers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Watt

    Full Text Available Recent in-vitro studies have suggested that a critical checkpoint early in the inflammatory process involves the interaction between neutrophils and platelets. This confirms the importance of the innate immune system in the elaboration of the systemic inflammatory response. The aim of the present study was to examine whether a combination of the neutrophil and platelet counts were predictive of survival in patients with cancer.Patients with histologically proven colorectal cancer who underwent potentially curative resection at a single centre between March 1999 and May 2013 (n = 796 and patients with cancer from the Glasgow Inflammation Outcome Study, who had a blood sample taken between January 2000 and December 2007 (n = 9649 were included in the analysis.In the colorectal cancer cohort, there were 173 cancer and 135 non-cancer deaths. In patients undergoing elective surgery, cancer-specific survival (CSS at 5 years ranged from 97% in patients with TNM I disease and NPS = 0 to 57% in patients with TNM III disease and NPS = 2 (p = 0.019 and in patients undergoing elective surgery for node-negative colon cancer from 98% (TNM I, NPS = 0 to 65% (TNM II, NPS = 2 (p = 0.004. In those with a variety of common cancers there were 5218 cancer and 929 non-cancer deaths. On multivariate analysis, adjusting for age and sex and stratified by tumour site, incremental increase in the NPS was significantly associated with poorer CSS (p<0.001.The neutrophil-platelet score predicted survival in a variety of common cancers and highlights the importance of the innate immune system in patients with cancer.

  20. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) classification predicts survival in patients with brain metastases from sarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, Rachel; Ram, Zvi

    2014-12-01

    Sarcoma rarely metastasizes to the brain, and there are no specific treatment guidelines for these tumors. The recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) classification is a well-established prognostic scale used in many malignancies. In this study we assessed the clinical characteristics of metastatic sarcoma to the brain and the validity of the RPA classification system in a subset of 21 patients who underwent surgical resection of metastatic sarcoma to the brain We retrospectively analyzed the medical, radiological, surgical, pathological, and follow-up clinical records of 21 patients who were operated for metastatic sarcoma to the brain between 1996 and 2012. Gliosarcomas, sarcomas of the head and neck with local extension into the brain, and metastatic sarcomas to the spine were excluded from this reported series. The patients' mean age was 49.6 ± 14.2 years (range, 25-75 years) at the time of diagnosis. Sixteen patients had a known history of systemic sarcoma, mostly in the extremities, and had previously received systemic chemotherapy and radiation therapy for their primary tumor. The mean maximal tumor diameter in the brain was 4.9 ± 1.7 cm (range 1.7-7.2 cm). The group's median preoperative Karnofsky Performance Scale was 80, with 14 patients presenting with Karnofsky Performance Scale of 70 or greater. The median overall survival was 7 months (range 0.2-204 months). The median survival time stratified by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group RPA classes were 31, 7, and 2 months for RPA class I, II, and III, respectively (P = 0.0001). This analysis is the first to support the prognostic utility of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group RPA classification for sarcoma brain metastases and may be used as a treatment guideline tool in this rare disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Detection methods predict differences in biology and survival in breast cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redondo, Maximino; Pereda, Teresa; Domingo, Laia; Morales-Suarez Varela, María; Sala, Maria; Rueda, Antonio; Funez, Rafael; Medina-Cano, Francisco; Rodrigo, Isabel; Acebal, Mercedes; Tellez, Teresa; Roldan, M Jose; Hortas, M Luisa; Bellinvia, Ana

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to measure the biological characteristics involved in tumorigenesis and the progression of breast cancer in symptomatic and screen-detected carcinomas to identify possible differences. For this purpose, we evaluated clinical-pathological parameters and proliferative and apoptotic activities in a series of 130 symptomatic and 161 screen-detected tumors. After adjustment for the smaller size of the screen-detected carcinomas compared with symptomatic cancers, those detected in the screening program presented longer disease-free survival (RR = 0.43, CI = 0.19-0.96) and had high estrogen and progesterone receptor concentrations more often than did symptomatic cancers (OR = 3.38, CI = 1.72-6.63 and OR = 3.44, CI = 1.94-6.10, respectively). Furthermore, the expression of bcl-2, a marker of good prognosis in breast cancer, was higher and HER2/neu expression was lower in screen-detected cancers than in symptomatic cancers (OR = 1.77, CI = 1.01-3.23 and OR = 0.64, CI = 0.40-0.98, respectively). However, when comparing prevalent vs incident screen-detected carcinomas, prevalent tumors were larger (OR = 2.84, CI = 1.05-7.69), were less likely to be HER2/neu positive (OR = 0.22, CI = 0.08-0.61) and presented lower Ki67 expression (OR = 0.36, CI = 0.17-0.77). In addition, incident tumors presented a shorter survival time than did prevalent ones (RR = 4.88, CI = 1.12-21.19). Incident carcinomas include a variety of screen-detected carcinomas that exhibit differences in biology and prognosis relative to prevalent carcinomas. The detection method is important and should be taken into account when making therapy decisions

  2. Nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence in patients with adenoid cystic carcinoma. An international collaborative study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ganly, Ian; Amit, Moran; Kou, Lei

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Due to the rarity of adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC), information on outcome is based upon small retrospective case series. The aim of our study was to create a large multiinstitutional international dataset of patients with ACC in order to design predictive nomograms for outcome. METH...

  3. Gene expression variation to predict 10-year survival in lymph-node-negative breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Elin; Delle, Ulla; Danielsson, Anna; Olsson, Björn; Abel, Frida; Karlsson, Per; Helou, Khalil

    2008-01-01

    It is of great significance to find better markers to correctly distinguish between high-risk and low-risk breast cancer patients since the majority of breast cancer cases are at present being overtreated. 46 tumours from node-negative breast cancer patients were studied with gene expression microarrays. A t-test was carried out in order to find a set of genes where the expression might predict clinical outcome. Two classifiers were used for evaluation of the gene lists, a correlation-based classifier and a Voting Features Interval (VFI) classifier. We then evaluated the predictive accuracy of this expression signature on tumour sets from two similar studies on lymph-node negative patients. They had both developed gene expression signatures superior to current methods in classifying node-negative breast tumours. These two signatures were also tested on our material. A list of 51 genes whose expression profiles could predict clinical outcome with high accuracy in our material (96% or 89% accuracy in cross-validation, depending on type of classifier) was developed. When tested on two independent data sets, the expression signature based on the 51 identified genes had good predictive qualities in one of the data sets (74% accuracy), whereas their predictive value on the other data set were poor, presumably due to the fact that only 23 of the 51 genes were found in that material. We also found that previously developed expression signatures could predict clinical outcome well to moderately well in our material (72% and 61%, respectively). The list of 51 genes derived in this study might have potential for clinical utility as a prognostic gene set, and may include candidate genes of potential relevance for clinical outcome in breast cancer. According to the predictions by this expression signature, 30 of the 46 patients may have benefited from different adjuvant treatment than they recieved. The research on these tumours was approved by the Medical Faculty Research

  4. Serum lactate dehydrogenase with a systemic inflammation score is useful for predicting response and survival in patients with newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sung-Hoon; Yang, Deok-Hwan; Ahn, Jae-Sook; Kim, Yeo-Kyeoung; Kim, Hyeoung-Joon; Lee, Je-Jung

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the relationship between serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level with systemic inflammation score and survival in 213 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) receiving R-CHOP chemotherapy. The patients were classified into 3 groups based on LDH with the Glasgow Prognostic Score (L-GPS). A score of 2 was assigned to patients with elevated C-reactive protein, hypoalbuminemia and elevated LDH, a score of 1 to those with one or two abnormalities and a score of 0 to those with no abnormality. In multivariate analysis, independent poor prognostic factors for progression-free survival were L-GPS 2 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.415, p = 0.001], Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) ≥2 (HR 3.504, p = 0.001) and bulky lesion (HR 2.030, p = 0.039). Independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival were L-GPS 2 (HR 5.898, p = 0.001) and ECOG PS ≥2 (HR 3.525, p = 0.001). The overall response rate for the R-CHOP chemotherapy decreased according to the L-GPS; it was 96.7% at L-GPS 0, 87% at L-GPS 1 and 75% at L-GPS 2 (p = 0.009). L-GPS based on systemic inflammatory indicators may be a useful clinical prognostic indicator for survival, and predicts the response for R-CHOP chemotherapy in patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  5. Preoperative prognostic nutritional index and nomogram predicting recurrence-free survival in patients with primary non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer without carcinoma in situ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui J

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Jianfeng Cui,1,* Shouzhen Chen,1,* Qiyu Bo,2 Shiyu Wang,1 Ning Zhang,1 Meng Yu,1 Wenfu Wang,1 Jie Han,3 Yaofeng Zhu,1 Benkang Shi1 1Department of Urology, 2Department of First Operating Room, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, 3Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background and objectives: Among the cancers of the urogenital system, bladder cancer is ranked second both in incidence and mortality, and hence, a more accurate estimate of the prognosis for individual patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC is urgently needed. Prognostic nutritional index (PNI which is based on serum albumin levels and peripheral lymphocyte count has been confirmed to have prognostic value in various cancers. The aim of this study was to clarify the prognostic value of PNI in patients with NMIBC.Methods: Data of 329 patients with NMIBC were evaluated retrospectively. Recurrence-free survival (RFS was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier method, and the equivalences of survival curves were tested by log-rank tests. The univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Discrimination of the nomogram was measured by the concordance index. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results: In univariate analysis, age, tumor focality, tumor size, tumor grade, pathological T stage and preoperative PNI were significantly associated with RFS. Multivariate analysis identified PNI as an independent predictor of RFS in patients with NMIBC. According to these independent predictors, a nomogram for the prediction of recurrence was developed.Conclusion: PNI can be regarded as an independent prognostic factor for predicting RFS in NMIBC. The nomogram could be useful to improve personalized therapy for patients with NMIBC. Keywords: non

  6. Serum levels of IGF-1 and IGF-BP3 are associated with event-free survival in adult Ewing sarcoma patients treated with chemotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Groot S

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Stefanie de Groot,1 Hans Gelderblom,1 Marta Fiocco,2,3 Judith VMG Bovée,4 Jacobus JM van der Hoeven,1 Hanno Pijl,5 Judith R Kroep1 1Department of Medical Oncology, 2Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, 3Mathematical Department, Leiden University, 4Department of Pathology, 5Department of Endocrinology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands Background: Activation of the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1 pathway is involved in cell growth and proliferation and is associated with tumorigenesis, tumor progression, and therapy resistance in solid tumors. We examined whether variability in serum levels of IGF-1, IGF-2, and IGF-binding protein 3 (IGF-BP3 can predict event-free survival (EFS and overall survival (OS in Ewing sarcoma patients treated with chemotherapy.Patients and methods: Serum levels of IGF-1, IGF-2, and IGF-BP3 of 22 patients with localized or metastasized Ewing sarcoma treated with six cycles of vincristine/ifosfamide/doxorubicin/etoposide (VIDE chemotherapy were recorded. Baseline levels were compared with presixth cycle levels using paired t-tests and were tested for associations with EFS and OS. Continuous variables were dichotomized according to the Contal and O’Quigley procedure. Survival analyses were performed using Cox regression analysis.Results: High baseline IGF-1 and IGF-BP3 serum levels were associated with EFS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.075, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.009–0.602 and HR 0.090, 95% CI 0.011–0.712, respectively in univariate and multivariate analyses (HR 0.063, 95% CI 0.007–0.590 and HR 0.057, 95% CI 0.005–0.585, respectively. OS was improved, but this was not statistically significant. IGF-BP3 and IGF-2 serum levels increased during treatment with VIDE chemotherapy (P=0.055 and P=0.023, respectively.Conclusion: High circulating serum levels of IGF-1 and IGF-BP3 and the molar ratio of IGF-1:IGF-BP3 serum levels were associated

  7. Impact of Molecular Subtypes in Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer on Predicting Response and Survival after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, Roland; Ashab, Hussam Al Deen; Erho, Nicholas; van Rhijn, Bas W G; Winters, Brian; Douglas, James; Van Kessel, Kim E; Fransen van de Putte, Elisabeth E; Sommerlad, Matthew; Wang, Natalie Q; Choeurng, Voleak; Gibb, Ewan A; Palmer-Aronsten, Beatrix; Lam, Lucia L; Buerki, Christine; Davicioni, Elai; Sjödahl, Gottfrid; Kardos, Jordan; Hoadley, Katherine A; Lerner, Seth P; McConkey, David J; Choi, Woonyoung; Kim, William Y; Kiss, Bernhard; Thalmann, George N; Todenhöfer, Tilman; Crabb, Simon J; North, Scott; Zwarthoff, Ellen C; Boormans, Joost L; Wright, Jonathan; Dall'Era, Marc; van der Heijden, Michiel S; Black, Peter C

    2017-10-01

    An early report on the molecular subtyping of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) by gene expression suggested that response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) varies by subtype. To investigate the ability of molecular subtypes to predict pathological downstaging and survival after NAC. Whole transcriptome profiling was performed on pre-NAC transurethral resection specimens from 343 patients with MIBC. Samples were classified according to four published molecular subtyping methods. We developed a single-sample genomic subtyping classifier (GSC) to predict consensus subtypes (claudin-low, basal, luminal-infiltrated and luminal) with highest clinical impact in the context of NAC. Overall survival (OS) according to subtype was analyzed and compared with OS in 476 non-NAC cases (published datasets). Gene expression analysis was used to assign subtypes. Receiver-operating characteristics were used to determine the accuracy of GSC. The effect of GSC on survival was estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression models. The models generated subtype calls in expected ratios with high concordance across subtyping methods. GSC was able to predict four consensus molecular subtypes with high accuracy (73%), and clinical significance of the predicted consensus subtypes could be validated in independent NAC and non-NAC datasets. Luminal tumors had the best OS with and without NAC. Claudin-low tumors were associated with poor OS irrespective of treatment regimen. Basal tumors showed the most improvement in OS with NAC compared with surgery alone. The main limitations of our study are its retrospective design and comparison across datasets. Molecular subtyping may have an impact on patient benefit to NAC. If validated in additional studies, our results suggest that patients with basal tumors should be prioritized for NAC. We discovered the first single-sample classifier to subtype MIBC, which may be suitable for integration into routine clinical practice. Different molecular

  8. Low mannose-binding lectin serum levels are associated with reduced kidney graft survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bay, Jakob Thaning; Sørensen, Søren S; Hansen, Jesper M

    2013-01-01

    Activation of the complement system is initiated by the alternative, the classical, or the lectin pathway. As the complement system is involved in the pathophysiology of graft rejection after kidney transplantation, we investigated the possible role of mannose-binding lectin in kidney transplanta...... immunity in maintaining kidney graft survival, but these are probably overruled by HLA immunization.Kidney International advance online publication, 21 November 2012; doi:10.1038/ki.2012.373....

  9. Demographic Prediction of Juvenile Delinquency across and within Delinquency Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Michael D.; Truckenmiller, James L.

    Demographic prediction of juvenile delinquency has been hampered by the heterogeniety of youth samples. In an attempt to correct for sampling bias in predicting juvenile delinquency, 1,689 male and female youths(aged 12 to 19, drawn from a 6 percent systematic, census tract, random sample of Pennsylvania school youths) completed the Youth Needs…

  10. Predictive modelling of survival and length of stay in critically ill patients using sequential organ failure scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houthooft, Rein; Ruyssinck, Joeri; van der Herten, Joachim; Stijven, Sean; Couckuyt, Ivo; Gadeyne, Bram; Ongenae, Femke; Colpaert, Kirsten; Decruyenaere, Johan; Dhaene, Tom; De Turck, Filip

    2015-03-01

    The length of stay of critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is an indication of patient ICU resource usage and varies considerably. Planning of postoperative ICU admissions is important as ICUs often have no nonoccupied beds available. Estimation of the ICU bed availability for the next coming days is entirely based on clinical judgement by intensivists and therefore too inaccurate. For this reason, predictive models have much potential for improving planning for ICU patient admission. Our goal is to develop and optimize models for patient survival and ICU length of stay (LOS) based on monitored ICU patient data. Furthermore, these models are compared on their use of sequential organ failure (SOFA) scores as well as underlying raw data as input features. Different machine learning techniques are trained, using a 14,480 patient dataset, both on SOFA scores as well as their underlying raw data values from the first five days after admission, in order to predict (i) the patient LOS, and (ii) the patient mortality. Furthermore, to help physicians in assessing the prediction credibility, a probabilistic model is tailored to the output of our best-performing model, assigning a belief to each patient status prediction. A two-by-two grid is built, using the classification outputs of the mortality and prolonged stay predictors to improve the patient LOS regression models. For predicting patient mortality and a prolonged stay, the best performing model is a support vector machine (SVM) with GA,D=65.9% (area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77) and GS,L=73.2% (AUC of 0.82). In terms of LOS regression, the best performing model is support vector regression, achieving a mean absolute error of 1.79 days and a median absolute error of 1.22 days for those patients surviving a nonprolonged stay. Using a classification grid based on the predicted patient mortality and prolonged stay, allows more accurate modeling of the patient LOS. The detailed models allow to support

  11. A comparison of machine learning techniques for survival prediction in breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanneschi, Leonardo; Farinaccio, Antonella; Mauri, Giancarlo; Antoniotti, Mauro; Provero, Paolo; Giacobini, Mario

    2011-05-11

    The ability to accurately classify cancer patients into risk classes, i.e. to predict the outcome of the pathology on an individual basis, is a key ingredient in making therapeutic decisions. In recent years gene expression data have been successfully used to complement the clinical and histological criteria traditionally used in such prediction. Many "gene expression signatures" have been developed, i.e. sets of genes whose expression values in a tumor can be used to predict the outcome of the pathology. Here we investigate the use of several machine learning techniques to classify breast cancer patients using one of such signatures, the well established 70-gene signature. We show that Genetic Programming performs significantly better than Support Vector Machines, Multilayered Perceptrons and Random Forests in classifying patients from the NKI breast cancer dataset, and comparably to the scoring-based method originally proposed by the authors of the 70-gene signature. Furthermore, Genetic Programming is able to perform an automatic feature selection. Since the performance of Genetic Programming is likely to be improvable compared to the out-of-the-box approach used here, and given the biological insight potentially provided by the Genetic Programming solutions, we conclude that Genetic Programming methods are worth further investigation as a tool for cancer patient classification based on gene expression data.

  12. A comparison of machine learning techniques for survival prediction in breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanneschi Leonardo

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to accurately classify cancer patients into risk classes, i.e. to predict the outcome of the pathology on an individual basis, is a key ingredient in making therapeutic decisions. In recent years gene expression data have been successfully used to complement the clinical and histological criteria traditionally used in such prediction. Many "gene expression signatures" have been developed, i.e. sets of genes whose expression values in a tumor can be used to predict the outcome of the pathology. Here we investigate the use of several machine learning techniques to classify breast cancer patients using one of such signatures, the well established 70-gene signature. Results We show that Genetic Programming performs significantly better than Support Vector Machines, Multilayered Perceptrons and Random Forests in classifying patients from the NKI breast cancer dataset, and comparably to the scoring-based method originally proposed by the authors of the 70-gene signature. Furthermore, Genetic Programming is able to perform an automatic feature selection. Conclusions Since the performance of Genetic Programming is likely to be improvable compared to the out-of-the-box approach used here, and given the biological insight potentially provided by the Genetic Programming solutions, we conclude that Genetic Programming methods are worth further investigation as a tool for cancer patient classification based on gene expression data.

  13. Predicting bat colony survival under controls targeting multiple transmission routes of white-nose syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, A D; Stevens, D F; Blackwood, J C

    2016-11-21

    White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a lethal infection of bats caused by the psychrophilic fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd). Since the first cases of WNS were documented in 2006, it is estimated that as many as 5.5million bats have succumbed in the United States-one of the fastest mammalian die-offs due to disease ever observed, and the first known sustained epizootic of bats. WNS is contagious between bats, and mounting evidence suggests that a persistent environmental reservoir of Pd plays a significant role in transmission as well. It is unclear, however, the relative contributions of bat-to-bat and environment-to-bat transmission to disease propagation within a colony. We analyze a mathematical model to investigate the consequences of both avenues of transmission on colony survival in addition to the efficacy of disease control strategies. Our model shows that selection of the most effective control strategies is highly dependent on the primary route of WNS transmission. Under all scenarios, however, generalized culling is ineffective and while targeted culling of infected bats may be effective under idealized conditions, it primarily has negative consequences. Thus, understanding the significance of environment-to-bat transmission is paramount to designing effective management plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light concentration in motor neuron disease and frontotemporal dementia predicts survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skillbäck, Tobias; Mattsson, Niklas; Blennow, Kaj; Zetterberg, Henrik

    2017-08-01

    To aid diagnostics, patient stratification and studies seeking to find treatments for the related diseases motor neuron disease (MND) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD), there is a need to establish a way to assess disease severity and the amount of ongoing neurodegeneration. Previous studies have suggested that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neurofilament light (NFL) may serve this purpose. We cross-referenced the Swedish mortality registry with the laboratory database at Sahlgrenska University Hospital to produce a dataset of CSF NFL concentrations and mortality information for 715 MND patients, 87 FTD patients, and 107 healthy controls. Biomarker concentrations were analysed in relation to recorded cause of death and time of death. MND patients had significantly higher CSF NFL concentrations than FTD patients. Both groups had significantly higher concentrations than the healthy controls (mean 709% increase in MND and 307% increase in FTD). Higher concentrations of CSF NFL were associated with shorter survival in both MND and FTD. The results of this study strengthen the notion of CSF NFL as a useful tool for determining disease intensity in MND and FTD patients. Further studies in patient cohorts with clinically subtyped and genetically classified diagnoses are needed.

  15. Markers of systemic inflammation predict survival in patients with advanced renal cell cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, P; Hudson, M; Brown, C; Lord, S; Gebski, V; De Souza, P; Lee, C K

    2013-07-09

    The host inflammatory response has a vital role in carcinogenesis and tumour progression. We examined the prognostic value of inflammatory markers (albumin, white-cell count and its components, and platelets) in pre-treated patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Using data from a randomised trial, multivariable proportional hazards models were generated to examine the impact of inflammatory markers and established prognostic factors (performance status, calcium, and haemoglobin) on overall survival (OS). We evaluated a new prognostic classification incorporating additional information from inflammatory markers. Of the 416 patients, 362 were included in the analysis. Elevated neutrophil counts, elevated platelet counts, and a high neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio were significant independent predictors for shorter OS in a model with established prognostic factors. The addition of inflammatory markers improves the discriminatory value of the prognostic classification as compared with established factors alone (C-statistic 0.673 vs 0.654, P=0.002 for the difference), with 25.8% (P=0.004) of patients more appropriately classified using the new classification. Markers of systemic inflammation contribute significantly to prognostic classification in addition to established factors for pre-treated patients with advanced RCC. Upon validation of these data in independent studies, stratification of patients using these markers in future clinical trials is recommended.

  16. Apoptotic intrinsic pathway proteins predict survival in canine cutaneous mast cell tumours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barra, C N; Macedo, B M; Cadrobbi, K G; Pulz, L H; Huete, G C; Kleeb, S R; Xavier, J G; Catão-Dias, J L; Nishiya, A T; Fukumasu, H; Strefezzi, R F

    2018-03-01

    Mast cell tumours (MCTs) are the most frequent canine round cell neoplasms and show variable biological behaviours with high metastatic and recurrence rates. The disease is treated surgically and wide margins are recommended. Adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy used in this disease cause DNA damage in neoplastic cells, which is aimed to induce apoptotic cell death. Resisting cell death is a hallmark of cancer, which contributes to the development and progression of tumours. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of the proteins involved in the apoptotic intrinsic pathway and to evaluate their potential use as prognostic markers for canine cutaneous MCTs. Immunohistochemistry for BAX, BCL2, APAF1, Caspase-9, and Caspase-3 was performed in 50 canine cases of MCTs. High BAX expression was associated with higher mortality rate and shorter survival. BCL2 and APAF1 expressions offered additional prognostic information to the histopathological grading systems. The present results indicate that variations in the expression of apoptotic proteins are related to malignancy of cutaneous MCTs in dogs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Prediction of 90 Day and Overall Survival after Chemoradiotherapy for Lung Cancer: Role of Performance Status and Body Composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, J C S; Williams, L J; Simms, A; Price, A; Campbell, S; Fallon, M T; Fearon, K C H

    2017-09-01

    If appropriate patients are to be selected for lung cancer treatment, an understanding of who is most at risk of adverse outcomes after treatment is needed. The aim of the present study was to identify predictive factors for 30 and 90 day mortality after chemoradiotherapy (CRT), and factors that were prognostic for overall survival. A retrospective cohort study of 194 patients with lung cancer who had undergone CRT in South East Scotland from 2008 to 2010 was undertaken. Gender, age, cancer characteristics, weight loss, body mass index (BMI), performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group; ECOG) and computed tomography-derived body composition variables were examined for prognostic significance using Cox's proportional hazards model and logistic regression. The median overall survival was 19 months (95% confidence interval 16.3, 21.7). Four of 194 patients died within 30 days of treatment completion, for which there were no independent predictive variables; 22/194 (11%) died within 90 days of treatment completion. BMI < 20 and ECOG performance status ≥2 were independent predictors of death within 90 days of treatment completion (P = 0.001 and P = 0.004, respectively). Patients with either BMI < 20 or ECOG performance status ≥ 2 had an odds ratio of death within 90 days of 5.97 (95% confidence interval 2.20, 16.19), rising to an odds ratio of 13.27 (1.70, 103.47) for patients with both BMI < 20 and ECOG performance status ≥ 2. Patients with low muscle attenuation had significantly reduced overall survival (P = 0.004); individuals with low muscle attenuation had a median survival of 15.2 months (95% confidence interval 12.7, 17.7) compared with 23.0 months (95% confidence interval 18.3, 27.8) for those with high muscle attenuation, equating to a hazard ratio of death of 1.62 (95% confidence interval 1.17, 2.23, P = 0.003). Poor performance status, low BMI and low muscle attenuation identify patients at increased risk of premature death after

  18. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  19. Optimism and survival: does an optimistic outlook predict better survival at advanced ages? A twelve-year follow-up of Danish nonagenarians

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg, Henriette; Jeune, Bernard; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studies examining predictors of survival among the oldest-old have primarily focused on objective measures, such as physical function and health status. Only a few studies have examined the effect of personality traits on survival, such as optimism. The aim of this study...... physical and cognitive functioning and disease were taken into account the association between optimism and survival weakened in both sexes, but the general pattern persisted. Optimistic women were still at lower risk of death compared to neutral women [HR 0.85, 95 % CI (0.74-0.97)]. The risk of death...

  20. Context-dependent survival, fecundity and predicted population-level consequences of brucellosis in African buffalo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorsich, Erin E.; Ezenwa, Vanessa O.; Cross, Paul C.; Bengis, Roy G.; Jolles, Anna E.

    2015-01-01

    Chronic infections may have negative impacts on wildlife populations, yet their effects are difficult to detect in the absence of long-term population monitoring. Brucella abortus, the bacteria responsible for bovine brucellosis, causes chronic infections and abortions in wild and domestic ungulates, but its impact on population dynamics is not well understood.

  1. Effects of dietary phospholipid level in cobia (Rachycentron canadum) larvae: growth, survival, plasma lipids and enzymes of lipid metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, J; Liu, Y J; Tian, L X; Mai, K S; Yang, H J; Ye, C X; Zhu, Y

    2008-03-01

    A study was conducted to determine the effects of dietary phospholipid (PL) levels in cobia (Rachycentron canadum) larvae with regard to growth, survival, plasma lipids and enzymes of lipid metabolism. Fish with an average weight of 0.4 g were fed diets containing four levels of PL (0, 20, 40 and 80 g kg(-1)dry matter: purity 97%) for 42 days. Final body weight (FBW), weight gain (WG) and survival ratio were highest in the 8% PL diet group and mortality was highest in PL-free diet group. We examined the activities of lipoprotein lipase (LPL) and hepatic lipase (HL) in liver, lecithin-cholesterolacyltransferase (LCAT) in plasma as well as plasma lipids and lipoprotein. LCAT activity showed a decrease of more than two-fold in PL-supplemented diet groups compared with the PL-free diet group. HL activity was highest in the 8% PL diet group and the other three groups showed no difference. LPL activity was significantly higher in the PL-supplemented diet groups than in the PL-free diet group. The dietary intervention significantly increased plasma phospholipids and total cholesterol (TC) levels, and the higher free cholesterol (FC) level contributed to the TC level. However, the fish fed PL exhibited a significantly decreased plasma triglyceride (TG) level. The lipoprotein fractions were also affected significantly by the PL. The PL-supplemented diet groups had significantly higher high-density lipoprotein (HDL) compared with the PL-free diet group, but showed a marked decrease in very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL). The results suggested that PL could modify plasma lipoprotein metabolism and lipid profile, and that the optimal dietary PL level may well exceed 80 g kg(-1) for cobia larvae according to growth and survival.

  2. Do Scoring Systems Help in Predicting Survival Following Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatt, Marcel; Goldsmith, Paul; Martinez, Marcos; Barandiaran, Jesus; Grover, Kartikae; El-Barghouti, Naif; Perry, Eugene P

    2009-01-01

    INTRODUCTION The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Hardman Index and the Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting postoperative mortality in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA), and to assess the correlation between the two. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients admitted with rAAA were identified from a hospital database. Hospital records were reviewed and a retrospective Hardman Index and Glasgow Aneurysm Score was calculated. Poor postoperative prognosis was considered at a Glasgow Aneurysm Score > 95 or a Hardman Index ≥ 3. RESULTS A total of 96 patients with a median age of 77.5 years (interquartile range, 71–83 years) and a male:female ratio of 2:1 were identified. Of these, 37 patients were not offered surgery and this was associated with 100% mortality. Of the 59 operated patients, 36 (61%) patients died postoperatively. Operated patients had a median Glasgow Aneurysm Score of 91 (interquartile range, 77–101) and a Hardman Index of 2 (interquartile range, 1–2). In this group, a Glasgow Aneurysm Score > 95 or a Hardman Index ≥ 3 was not associated with mortality (P = 0.10 and P = 0.79, respectively). Correlation between the scoring systems was poor (+0.42 τb). CONCLUSIONS The scoring systems assessed did not help predict the outcome of rAAA surgery, and correlated poorly with each other. They do not aid clinical judgement. PMID:19102824

  3. Western bean cutworm survival and the development of economic injury levels and economic thresholds in field corn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paula-Moraes, S; Hunt, T E; Wright, R J; Hein, G L; Blankenship, E E

    2013-06-01

    Western bean cutworm, Striacosta albicosta (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a native pest of dry beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and corn (Zea mays L.). Historically, the western bean cutworm was distributed in the western United States, but since 1999 eastward expansion has been observed. In corn, economic impact is caused by larval ear feeding. Information on western bean cutworm biology, ecology, and economic impact is relatively limited, and the development of economic injury levels (EILs) and economic thresholds (ETs) is required for more effective management. Studies during 2008-2011, across three ecoregions of Nebraska, sought to characterize western bean cutworm survival and development of EILs and ETs. Calculations of EILs and ETs incorporated the dynamics of corn price, management cost, and pest survival. The results from the current study demonstrated low larval survival of this species (1.51-12.82%). The mean yield loss from one western bean cutworm larva per plant was 945.52 kg/ha (15.08 bu/acre), based on 74,100 plants per ha. Economic thresholds are expressed as a percentage of plants with at least one egg mass. This study is the first study that explicitly incorporates variable management costs and crop values into western bean cutworm EIL calculations, and larval survival into ET calculations.

  4. Influence of Educational Level, Stage, and Histological Type on Survival of Oral Cancer in a Brazilian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas, Thinali Sousa; de Barros Silva, Paulo Goberlânio; Sousa, Eric Fernandes; da Cunha, Maria do PSS; de Aguiar, Andréa Silvia Walter; Costa, Fábio Wildson Gurgel; Mota, Mário Rogério Lima; Alves, Ana Paula Negreiros Nunes; Sousa, Fabrício Bitu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The mortality rate associated with oral cancer is estimated at approximately 12,300 deaths per year, and the survival rate is only 40% to 50% for diagnosed patients and is closely related to the duration of time between disease perception and its diagnosis and treatment. Socioeconomic risk factors are determinants of the incidence and mortality related to oral cancer. We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional study of 573 records of patients with oral cancer at Haroldo Juaçaba Hospital – Cancer Institute of Ceará from 2000 to 2009 to evaluate the influence of socioeconomic factors on survival and epidemiological behavior of this neoplasia in a Brazilian population. In this study, patients with oral cancer were males greater than 60 years of age, presented squamous cell carcinoma in the floor of mouth and were characterized by low education levels. A total of 573 lesions were found in oral cavities. Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that the histological type, tumor stage, and low degree of education significantly influenced survival. A lower patient survival rate was correlated with a more advanced stage of disease and a worse prognosis. Squamous cell carcinoma is associated with a higher mortality when compared with other histological types of malign neoplasia. PMID:26817864

  5. Predicting transport survival of brindle and red rock lobsters Jasus edwardsii using haemolymph biochemistry and behaviour traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Cedric J; Mendo, Tania C; Green, Bridget S; Gardner, Caleb

    2016-11-01

    Mortality events during live transport of Jasus edwardsii rock lobsters are common around the time of season openings in Tasmania, with lobsters from deeper fishing areas with pale shell colouration (brindle) being perceived as more susceptible than shallow-water, red-coloured (red) lobsters. The aims of this study were to assess and predict the vulnerability of brindle and red lobsters to extended emersion exposure using pre- and post-emersion data which included 28 haemolymph biochemical parameters and 5 behaviour traits. No effect of lobster shell colour on haemolymph biochemistry, behaviour traits and their vulnerability to emersion was found. A combined survival of 97% after 40h and 57% after 64h in a first experiment, and 37% after 64h in a second experiment, was observed. Behaviour traits (i.e., righting response, tail flips and three reflex behaviours) were poor indicator of survival. Haemolymph parameters were either unaffected by emersion (e.g., Brix index, protein and lipids), affected by emersion but not associated with mortality (e.g., total haemocyte counts, calcium, magnesium, bicarbonate, glucose and uric acid), or associated with mortality following a recovery period (e.g., pH, the sodium to potassium ratio, urea, and the activity of amylase). A build-up of anaerobic end-products and nitrogenous waste most likely resulted in the mortality. A model based on lobster size and the pre-emersion concentration of haemolymph bicarbonate and haemocyanin was found to be a useful indicator of future survival. This study provides promising leads towards the development of a blood based vulnerability test for live crustacean prior transport. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Survival prediction algorithms miss significant opportunities for improvement if used for case selection in trauma quality improvement programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heim, Catherine; Cole, Elaine; West, Anita; Tai, Nigel; Brohi, Karim

    2016-09-01

    Quality improvement (QI) programs have shown to reduce preventable mortality in trauma care. Detailed review of all trauma deaths is a time and resource consuming process and calculated probability of survival (Ps) has been proposed as audit filter. Review is limited on deaths that were 'expected to survive'. However no Ps-based algorithm has been validated and no study has examined elements of preventability associated with deaths classified as 'expected'. The objective of this study was to examine whether trauma performance review can be streamlined using existing mortality prediction tools without missing important areas for improvement. We conducted a retrospective study of all trauma deaths reviewed by our trauma QI program. Deaths were classified into non-preventable, possibly preventable, probably preventable or preventable. Opportunities for improvement (OPIs) involve failure in the process of care and were classified into clinical and system deviations from standards of care. TRISS and PS were used for calculation of probability of survival. Peer-review charts were reviewed by a single investigator. Over 8 years, 626 patients were included. One third showed elements of preventability and 4% were preventable. Preventability occurred across the entire range of the calculated Ps band. Limiting review to unexpected deaths would have missed over 50% of all preventability issues and a third of preventable deaths. 37% of patients showed opportunities for improvement (OPIs). Neither TRISS nor PS allowed for reliable identification of OPIs and limiting peer-review to patients with unexpected deaths would have missed close to 60% of all issues in care. TRISS and PS fail to identify a significant proportion of avoidable deaths and miss important opportunities for process and system improvement. Based on this, all trauma deaths should be subjected to expert panel review in order to aim at a maximal output of performance improvement programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

  7. Can Diffusion-weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predict Survival in Patients with Cervical Cancer? A Meta-Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yu-Ting, E-mail: wangyuting_330@163.com; Li, Ying-Chun, E-mail: anicespringspring@163.com; Yin, Long-Lin, E-mail: yinlonglin@163.com; Pu, Hong, E-mail: ph196797@163.com

    2016-12-15

    Highlights: • DWI may serve as a prognostic factor in patients with cervical cancer. • Unfavorable DWI results (mostly low ADC) were associated with higher risks of tumor recurrence. • A quantified ADC was shown to be a suitable candidate indicator. - Abstract: Objective: Although diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) has been widely used in the diagnosis of cervical cancer, whether it can predict disease recurrence or survival remains inconclusive. This study aimed to systematically evaluate whether DWI can serve as a reliable prognostic predictor in patients with cervical cancer. Methods: PubMed, the MEDLINE database and the Cochrane Library were searched for DWI studies with >12 months of prognostic data in patients with cervical cancer. Endpoints included tumor recurrence and death. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool. Combined estimates of hazard ratios (HRs) were derived. Results: Nine studies involving a total of 796 patients (mean/median age from 45.0 years to 62.9 years) met the inclusion criteria. Methodological quality was relatively high. Eight of the nine studies employed apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) as an indicator of DWI results. Using disease-free survival (DFS) as an outcome measure, nine studies yielded a combined HR of 1.55 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23–1.95), and seven studies that employed pretreatment DWI yielded a combined HR of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.03–2.19), which indicated that unfavorable DWI results were associated with an approximately 1.50–1.55-fold higher risk of tumor recurrence. The two studies investigating the impact of DWI results on overall survival (OS) reported HRs of 7.20 and 2.17, respectively. Conclusion: DWI may serve as a predictor of tumor recurrence in patients with cervical cancer as showed by meta-analysis, and the quantified ADC as a suitable candidate indicator.

  8. Serial assessment of pulmonary lesion volume by computed tomography allows survival prediction in invasive pulmonary aspergillosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehreschild, J.J.; Vehreschild, M.J.G.T. [University Hospital of Cologne, Department I of Internal Medicine, Cologne (Germany); German Centre for Infection Research, Partner Site Bonn-Cologne, Cologne (Germany); Heussel, C.P. [Chest Clinic at University Hospital Heidelberg, Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); University Hospital of Heidelberg, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Heidelberg (Germany); Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Heidelberg (Germany); Groll, A.H. [University Children' s Hospital, Infectious Disease Research Program, Department of Paediatric Haematology/Oncology, Muenster (Germany); Silling, G. [University of Muenster, Department of Medicine A, Haematology/Oncology, Muenster (Germany); Wuerthwein, G. [University Hospital Muenster, Centre for Clinical Trials, ZKS Muenster (Germany); Brecht, M. [Chest Clinic at University Hospital Heidelberg, Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Cornely, O.A. [University Hospital of Cologne, Department I of Internal Medicine, Cologne (Germany); University of Cologne, Clinical Trials Center Cologne, ZKS Koeln (BMBF 01KN1106), Cologne (Germany); Center for Integrated Oncology CIO Koeln Bonn, Cologne (Germany); University of Cologne, Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases (CECAD), Cologne (Germany)

    2017-08-15

    Serial chest CT is the standard of care to establish treatment success in invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). Data are lacking how response should be defined. Digital CT images from a clinical trial on treatment of IPA were re-evaluated and compared with available biomarkers. Total volume of pneumonia was added up after manual measurement of each lesion, followed by statistical analysis. One-hundred and ninety CT scans and 309 follow-up datasets from 40 patients were available for analysis. Thirty-one were neutropenic. Baseline galactomannan (OR 4.06, 95%CI: 1.08-15.31) and lesion volume (OR 3.14, 95%CI: 0.73-13.52) were predictive of death. Lesion volume at d7 and trend between d7 and d14 were strong predictors of death (OR 20.01, 95%CI: 1.42-282.00 and OR 15.97, 95%CI: 1.62-157.32) and treatment being rated as unsuccessful (OR 4.75, 95%CI: 0.94-24.05 and OR 40.69, 95%CI: 2.55-649.03), which was confirmed by a Cox proportional hazards model using time-dependent covariates. Any increase in CT lesion volume between day 7 and day 14 was a sensitive marker of a lethal outcome (>50%), supporting a CT rescan each one and 2 weeks after initial detection of IPA. The predictive value exceeded all other biomarkers. Further CT follow-up after response at day 14 was of low additional value. (orig.)

  9. Zone-size nonuniformity of {sup 18}F-FDG PET regional textural features predicts survival in patients with oropharyngeal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Nai-Ming [Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University, Departments of Nuclear Medicine, Taiyuan (China); Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Keelung (China); National Tsing Hua University, Department of Biomedical Engineering and Environmental Sciences, Hsinchu (China); Fang, Yu-Hua Dean [Chang Gung University, Department of Electrical Engineering, Taiyuan (China); Lee, Li-yu [Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan (China); Chang, Joseph Tung-Chieh; Tsan, Din-Li [Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Department of Radiation Oncology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan (China); Ng, Shu-Hang [Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan (China); Wang, Hung-Ming [Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Division of Hematology/Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan (China); Liao, Chun-Ta [Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan (China); Yang, Lan-Yan [Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Biostatistics Unit, Clinical Trial Center, Taoyuan (China); Hsu, Ching-Han [National Tsing Hua University, Department of Biomedical Engineering and Environmental Sciences, Hsinchu (China); Yen, Tzu-Chen [Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University, Departments of Nuclear Medicine, Taiyuan (China); Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Center, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taipei (China)

    2014-10-23

    The question as to whether the regional textural features extracted from PET images predict prognosis in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) remains open. In this study, we investigated the prognostic impact of regional heterogeneity in patients with T3/T4 OPSCC. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 88 patients with T3 or T4 OPSCC who had completed primary therapy. Progression-free survival (PFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were the main outcome measures. In an exploratory analysis, a standardized uptake value of 2.5 (SUV 2.5) was taken as the cut-off value for the detection of tumour boundaries. A fixed threshold at 42 % of the maximum SUV (SUV{sub max} 42 %) and an adaptive threshold method were then used for validation. Regional textural features were extracted from pretreatment {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT images using the grey-level run length encoding method and grey-level size zone matrix. The prognostic significance of PET textural features was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analysis. Zone-size nonuniformity (ZSNU) was identified as an independent predictor of PFS and DSS. Its prognostic impact was confirmed using both the SUV{sub max} 42 % and the adaptive threshold segmentation methods. Based on (1) total lesion glycolysis, (2) uniformity (a local scale texture parameter), and (3) ZSNU, we devised a prognostic stratification system that allowed the identification of four distinct risk groups. The model combining the three prognostic parameters showed a higher predictive value than each variable alone. ZSNU is an independent predictor of outcome in patients with advanced T-stage OPSCC, and may improve their prognostic stratification. (orig.)

  10. Combining Gait Speed and Recall Memory to Predict Survival in Late Life: Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengoni, Alessandra; Bandinelli, Stefania; Maietti, Elisa; Guralnik, Jack; Zuliani, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Luigi; Volpato, Stefano

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the relationship between gait speed, recall memory, and mortality. A cohort study (last follow-up December 2009). Tuscany, Italy. Individual data from 1,014 community-dwelling older adults aged 60 years or older with baseline gait speed and recall memory measurements and follow-up for a median time of 9.10 (IQR 7.1;9.3) years. Participants were a mean (SD) age of 73.9 (7.3) years, and 55.8% women. Participants walking faster than 0.8 m/s were defined as fast walkers; good recall memory was defined as a score of 2 or 3 in the 3-word delayed recall section of the Mini-Mental State Examination. All-cause mortality. There were 302 deaths and the overall 100 person-year death rate was 3.77 (95% CI: 3.37-4.22). Both low gait speed and poor recall memory were associated with mortality when analysed separately (HR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.87-3.27 and HR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.16-1.87, respectively). When we grouped participants according to both recall and gait speed, death rates (100 person-years) progressively increased from those with both good gait speed and memory (2.0; 95% CI: 1.6-2.5), to those with fast walk but poor memory (3.4; 95% CI: 2.8-4.2), to those with slow walk and good memory (8.8; 95% CI: 6.4-12.1), to those with both slow walk and poor memory (13.0; 95% CI: 10.6-16.1). In multivariate analysis, poor memory significantly increases mortality risk among persons with fast gait speed (HR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.04-1.89). In older persons, gait speed and recall memory are independent predictors of expected survival. Information on memory function might better stratify mortality risk among persons with fast gait speed. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  11. The modified high-density survival assay is the useful tool to predict the effectiveness of fractionated radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Mori, Miyuki; Oikawa, Toshiyuki; Shimura, Tsutomu; Fukumoto, Manabu; Ohtake, Yosuke; Ohkubo, Yasuhito; Mori, Shiro

    2010-01-01

    The high-density survival (HDS) assay was originally elaborated to assess cancer cell responses to therapeutic agents under the influence of intercellular communication. Here, we simplified the original HDS assay and studied its applicability for the detection of cellular radioresistance. We have recently defined clinically relevant radioresistant (CRR) cells, which continue to proliferate with daily exposure to 2 gray (Gy) of X-rays for more than 30 days in vitro. We established human CRR cell lines, HepG2-8960-R from HepG2, and SAS-R1 and -R2 from SAS, respectively. In an attempt to apply the HDS assay to detect radioresistance with clinical relevance, we simplified the original HDS assay by scoring the total number of surviving cells after exposure to X-rays. The modified HDS assay successfully detected radioresistance with clinical relevance. The modified HDS assay detected CRR phenotype, which is not always detectable by clonogenic assay. Therefore, we believe that the modified HDS assay presented in this study is a powerful tool to predict the effectiveness of fractionated radiotherapy against malignant tumors. (author)

  12. Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

    2010-11-01

    Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks.

  13. Body mass index and cholesterol level predict surgical outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan - a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Ling; Li, Wan-Chun; Tsai, Tung-Hu; Chiang, Hsin-Yu; Ting, Chin-Tsung

    2016-04-19

    Curative surgical resection (CSR) remains the most effective therapeutic intervention for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, frequent post-surgical recurrence leads to high cancer related mortality. This study aimed to clarify the role of body mass index (BMI) and serum cholesterol level in predicting post-surgical outcomes in HCC patients after CSR. A total of 484 HCC patients including 213 BMIhigh and 271 BMIlow patients were included. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were examined in patients with differential BMI and serum cholesterol level. The analysis showed that significant different 1-, 3- and 5-year cumulative OS rates (P-value=0.015) and RFS rate (P-value=0.010) between BMIlow and BMIhigh patients. Further analysis in groups with differential serum cholesterol levels among BMIlow and BMIhigh patients indicated that the BMIlow/Chollow patients exhibited the significant lower cumulative OS and RFS rates in comparison with the remaining subjects (P-value=0.007 and 0.039 for OS and RFS rates, respectively). In conclusion, the coexistence of low BMI and low serum cholesterol level could serve as prognostic factors to predict post-operative outcomes in HCC patients undergoing surgical hepatectomy.

  14. A six-gene signature predicts survival of patients with localized pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    OpenAIRE

    Jeran K Stratford; David J Bentrem; Judy M Anderson; Cheng Fan; Keith A Volmar; J S Marron; Elizabeth D Routh; Laura S Caskey; Jonathan C Samuel; Channing J Der; Leigh B Thorne; Benjamin F Calvo; Hong Jin Kim; Mark S Talamonti; Christine A Iacobuzio-Donahue

    2010-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background Pancreatic cancer kills nearly a quarter of a million people every year. It begins when a cell in the pancreas (an organ lying behind the stomach that produces digestive enzymes and hormones such as insulin, which controls blood sugar levels) acquires genetic changes that allow it to grow uncontrollably and to spread around the body (metastasize). Nearly all pancreatic cancers are “pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas” (PDACs)—tumors that start in the cells that line ...

  15. Pretreatment PSA predicts for biochemical disease free survival in patients treated with post-prostatectomy external beam irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crane, C.H.; Kelly, M.; Rich, T.A.

    1996-01-01

    Objective: To assess the outcome and determine prognostic factors for patients treated with external beam radiotherapy following radical prostatectomy. Methods and Materials: Forty-four patients were treated after prostatectomy with radiotherapy between March 1988 and October 1993. All patients were free from clinically or radiographically suspicious local or distant disease. One patient underwent neoadjuvant hormonal therapy, but no other patients received hormonal therapy prior to radiation. Pre-radiotherapy PSA and follow-up PSA data were available in all patients. Four patients had undetectable PSA ( 7, and 11% had nodal involvement. Survival was analyzed using the life table method. Actuarial freedom from biochemical (BCM) failure, defined as a rise of greater than 10% or an undetectable PSA becoming detectable, was the primary endpoint studied. Results: Fifty-nine percent of patients had a detectable PSA return to undetectable levels after XRT. The actuarial five year freedom from biochemical failure for all patients was 24%. A significant difference in BCM disease free survival was seen for patients irradiated with a pre-XRT PSA ≤2.7 versus a pre-XRT PSA >2.7 (p=0.0001). Sixty percent of the former group were BCM disease free versus 0% in the latter. Biochemical disease free survival was not affected by preoperative PSA level, presence of undetectable PSA after surgery, surgery to radiation interval, seminal vesicle invasion, clinical stage, pathologic stage, Gleasons grade, or total dose. There were no symptomatic or clinically suspicious local failures, and there were no grade 3, 4, or 5 acute or late complications. There were 69% grade 1 and 2 acute reactions and one grade 2 late complication. Conclusions: Pelvic radiotherapy for patients with a PSA of ≤2.7 after prostatectomy was effective in biochemically controlling 60% of the patients with four years median follow up. To our knowledge these data represent the longest follow-up for this patient

  16. Predictive value of 6-month decline in ADAS-cog for survival without severe Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmer, Catherine; Andrieu, Sandrine; Pérès, Karine; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Vellas, Bruno; Dartigues, Jean-François

    2007-01-01

    To determine the predictive value of the 6-month evolution of the ADAS-cog score in initially mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients on the risk of death or severe dementia (MMSE ADAS-cog scale in the Real.fr study, a cohort of AD patients. Six classes of ADAS-cog evolution were distinguished, from the severest deterioration (decline >or=7 points) to the greatest cognitive improvement (gain >or=4 points). Among 536 AD patients, 53 (9.9%) had a 6-month decline of 7 points or more. This group with the severest deterioration was significantly associated with the risk of severe dementia or death at 2 years (relative risk, RR = 3.8, 95% confidence interval, CI = 2.1-6.8), even after adjustment for baseline MMSE, disability and ADAS-cog score (RR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.4-5.0). In addition, subjects with a decline by at least 4 points were also at greater risk of severe dementia. These results confirm the value of the ADAS-cog scale as a judgement criterion in clinical trials since it is a good surrogate marker of long-term prognosis. The proportion of fast decliners on the ADAS-cog could be a helpful judgement criterion for future trials in AD.

  17. Intratumoral heterogeneity of 18F-FLT uptake predicts proliferation and survival in patients with newly diagnosed gliomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitamura, Katsuya; Yamamoto, Yuka; Kudomi, Nobuyuki; Norikane, Takashi; Miyake, Keisuke; Nishiyama, Yoshihiro; Maeda, Yukito

    2017-01-01

    useful for the assessment of proliferation and for the potential prediction of survival in newly diagnosed gliomas. (author)

  18. Serum Albumin Predicts Survival and Postoperative Course Following Surgery for Geriatric Hip Fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohl, Daniel D; Shen, Mary R; Hannon, Charles P; Fillingham, Yale A; Darrith, Brian; Della Valle, Craig J

    2017-12-20

    Serum albumin level is the most well-established serum marker of malnutrition, with a serum albumin concentration malnutrition. The purpose of this study was to test if serum albumin level is associated with death, specific postoperative complications (e.g., pneumonia), length of hospital stay, and readmission following a surgical procedure for geriatric hip fracture. A retrospective cohort study of geriatric patients (≥65 years of age) undergoing a hip fracture surgical procedure as part of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was conducted. Outcomes were compared between patients with and without hypoalbuminemia. All comparisons were adjusted for baseline and procedural differences between populations, and patients with missing serum albumin concentration were included in analyses using a missing data indicator. There were 29,377 geriatric patients undergoing a hip fracture surgical procedure who met inclusion criteria; of these patients, 17,651 (60.1%) had serum albumin available for analysis. The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia was 45.9%. Following adjustment for baseline and procedural characteristics, the risk of death was inversely associated with serum albumin concentration as a continuous variable (adjusted relative risk, 0.59 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.53 to 0.65]; p patients with normal albumin concentration, patients with hypoalbuminemia had higher rates of death (9.94% compared with 5.53% [adjusted relative risk, 1.52 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.70); p patients with hypoalbuminemia at 5.67 ± 4.68 days compared with those without hypoalbuminemia at 4.99 ± 3.95 days; the adjusted difference was 0.50 day (95% CI, 0.38 to 0.63 day; p patients with hypoalbuminemia (10.91%) and those without hypoalbuminemia (9.03%); the adjusted relative risk was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.21). Hypoalbuminemia is a powerful independent risk factor for mortality following a surgical procedure for geriatric hip fracture. These data suggest

  19. An early-biomarker algorithm predicts lethal graft-versus-host disease and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell, Matthew J; Özbek, Umut; Holler, Ernst; Renteria, Anne S; Major-Monfried, Hannah; Reddy, Pavan; Aziz, Mina; Hogan, William J; Ayuk, Francis; Efebera, Yvonne A; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Bunworasate, Udomsak; Qayed, Muna; Ordemann, Rainer; Wölfl, Matthias; Mielke, Stephan; Pawarode, Attaphol; Chen, Yi-Bin; Devine, Steven; Harris, Andrew C; Jagasia, Madan; Kitko, Carrie L; Litzow, Mark R; Kröger, Nicolaus; Locatelli, Franco; Morales, George; Nakamura, Ryotaro; Reshef, Ran; Rösler, Wolf; Weber, Daniela; Wudhikarn, Kitsada; Yanik, Gregory A; Levine, John E; Ferrara, James L M

    2017-02-09

    BACKGROUND. No laboratory test can predict the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) or severe graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after hematopoietic cellular transplantation (HCT) prior to the onset of GVHD symptoms. METHODS. Patient blood samples on day 7 after HCT were obtained from a multicenter set of 1,287 patients, and 620 samples were assigned to a training set. We measured the concentrations of 4 GVHD biomarkers (ST2, REG3α, TNFR1, and IL-2Rα) and used them to model 6-month NRM using rigorous cross-validation strategies to identify the best algorithm that defined 2 distinct risk groups. We then applied the final algorithm in an independent test set ( n = 309) and validation set ( n = 358). RESULTS. A 2-biomarker model using ST2 and REG3α concentrations identified patients with a cumulative incidence of 6-month NRM of 28% in the high-risk group and 7% in the low-risk group ( P < 0.001). The algorithm performed equally well in the test set (33% vs. 7%, P < 0.001) and the multicenter validation set (26% vs. 10%, P < 0.001). Sixteen percent, 17%, and 20% of patients were at high risk in the training, test, and validation sets, respectively. GVHD-related mortality was greater in high-risk patients (18% vs. 4%, P < 0.001), as was severe gastrointestinal GVHD (17% vs. 8%, P < 0.001). The same algorithm can be successfully adapted to define 3 distinct risk groups at GVHD onset. CONCLUSION. A biomarker algorithm based on a blood sample taken 7 days after HCT can consistently identify a group of patients at high risk for lethal GVHD and NRM. FUNDING. The National Cancer Institute, American Cancer Society, and the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation.

  20. Single-Event Transgene Product Levels Predict Levels in Genetically Modified Breeding Stacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampala, Satyalinga Srinivas; Fast, Brandon J; Richey, Kimberly A; Gao, Zhifang; Hill, Ryan; Wulfkuhle, Bryant; Shan, Guomin; Bradfisch, Greg A; Herman, Rod A

    2017-09-13

    The concentration of transgene products (proteins and double-stranded RNA) in genetically modified (GM) crop tissues is measured to support food, feed, and environmental risk assessments. Measurement of transgene product concentrations in breeding stacks of previously assessed and approved GM events is required by many regulatory authorities to evaluate unexpected transgene interactions that might affect expression. Research was conducted to determine how well concentrations of transgene products in single GM events predict levels in breeding stacks composed of these events. The concentrations of transgene products were compared between GM maize, soybean, and cotton breeding stacks (MON-87427 × MON-89034 × DAS-Ø15Ø7-1 × MON-87411 × DAS-59122-7 × DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2 × DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5 × DAS-24236-5 × SYN-IR102-7 × MON-88913-8 × DAS-81910-7 cotton) and their component single events (MON-87427, MON-89034, DAS-Ø15Ø7-1, MON-87411, DAS-59122-7, and DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2, and DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5, DAS-24236-5, SYN-IR102-7, MON-88913-8, and DAS-81910-7 cotton). Comparisons were made within a crop and transgene product across plant tissue types and were also made across transgene products in each breeding stack for grain/seed. Scatter plots were generated comparing expression in the stacks to their component events, and the percent of variability accounted for by the line of identity (y = x) was calculated (coefficient of identity, I 2 ). Results support transgene concentrations in single events predicting similar concentrations in breeding stacks containing the single events. Therefore, food, feed, and environmental risk assessments based on concentrations of transgene products in single GM events are generally applicable to breeding stacks composed of these events.

  1. Does Group-Level Commitment Predict Employee Well-Being?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Nielsen, Karina

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the links between group-level affective organizational commitment (AOC) and individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances. METHODS: A total of 5085 care workers from 301 workgroups in the Danish eldercare services parti...... disturbances (T2) were partially mediated by individual-level AOC (T1). CONCLUSIONS: Group-level AOC is an important predictor of employee well-being in contemporary health care organizations.......OBJECTIVE: To investigate the links between group-level affective organizational commitment (AOC) and individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances. METHODS: A total of 5085 care workers from 301 workgroups in the Danish eldercare services...

  2. The expression level of HJURP has an independent prognostic impact and predicts the sensitivity to radiotherapy in breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Zhi; Huang, Ge; Sadanandam, Anguraj; Gu, Shenda; Lenburg, Marc E.; Pai, Melody; Bayani, Nora; Blakely, Eleanor A.; Gray, Joe W.; Mao, Jian-Hua

    2010-01-01

    HJURP (Holliday Junction Recognition Protein) is a newly discovered gene reported to function at centromeres and to interact with CENPA. However its role in tumor development remains largely unknown. The goal of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of HJURP in breast cancer and its correlation with radiotherapeutic outcome. We measured HJURP expression level in human breast cancer cell lines and primary breast cancers by Western blot and/or by Affymetrix Microarray; and determined its associations with clinical variables using standard statistical methods. Validation was performed with the use of published microarray data. We assessed cell growth and apoptosis of breast cancer cells after radiation using high-content image analysis. HJURP was expressed at higher level in breast cancer than in normal breast tissue. HJURP mRNA levels were significantly associated with estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), Scarff-Bloom-Richardson (SBR) grade, age and Ki67 proliferation indices, but not with pathologic stage, ERBB2, tumor size, or lymph node status. Higher HJURP mRNA levels significantly decreased disease-free and overall survival. HJURP mRNA levels predicted the prognosis better than Ki67 proliferation indices. In a multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression, including clinical variables as covariates, HJURP mRNA levels remained an independent prognostic factor for disease-free and overall survival. In addition HJURP mRNA levels were an independent prognostic factor over molecular subtypes (normal like, luminal, Erbb2 and basal). Poor clinical outcomes among patients with high HJURP expression were validated in five additional breast cancer cohorts. Furthermore, the patients with high HJURP levels were much more sensitive to radiotherapy. In vitro studies in breast cancer cell lines showed that cells with high HJURP levels were more sensitive to radiation treatment and had a higher rate of apoptosis than those with low levels

  3. The expression level of HJURP has an independent prognostic impact and predicts the sensitivity to radiotherapy in breast cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zhi; Huang, Ge; Sadanandam, Anguraj; Gu, Shenda; Lenburg, Marc E; Pai, Melody; Bayani, Nora; Blakely, Eleanor A; Gray, Joe W; Mao, Jian-Hua

    2010-06-25

    Introduction: HJURP (Holliday Junction Recognition Protein) is a newly discovered gene reported to function at centromeres and to interact with CENPA. However its role in tumor development remains largely unknown. The goal of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of HJURP in breast cancer and its correlation with radiotherapeutic outcome. Methods: We measured HJURP expression level in human breast cancer cell lines and primary breast cancers by Western blot and/or by Affymetrix Microarray; and determined its associations with clinical variables using standard statistical methods. Validation was performed with the use of published microarray data. We assessed cell growth and apoptosis of breast cancer cells after radiation using high-content image analysis. Results: HJURP was expressed at higher level in breast cancer than in normal breast tissue. HJURP mRNA levels were significantly associated with estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), Scarff-Bloom-Richardson (SBR) grade, age and Ki67 proliferation indices, but not with pathologic stage, ERBB2, tumor size, or lymph node status. Higher HJURP mRNA levels significantly decreased disease-free and overall survival. HJURP mRNA levels predicted the prognosis better than Ki67 proliferation indices. In a multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression, including clinical variables as covariates, HJURP mRNA levels remained an independent prognostic factor for disease-free and overall survival. In addition HJURP mRNA levels were an independent prognostic factor over molecular subtypes (normal like, luminal, Erbb2 and basal). Poor clinical outcomes among patients with high HJURP expression werevalidated in five additional breast cancer cohorts. Furthermore, the patients with high HJURP levels were much more sensitive to radiotherapy. In vitro studies in breast cancer cell lines showed that cells with high HJURP levels were more sensitive to radiation treatment and had a higher rate of apoptosis

  4. The cure: design and evaluation of a crowdsourcing game for gene selection for breast cancer survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Benjamin M; Loguercio, Salvatore; Griffith, Obi L; Nanis, Max; Wu, Chunlei; Su, Andrew I

    2014-07-29

    Molecular signatures for predicting breast cancer prognosis could greatly improve care through personalization of treatment. Computational analyses of genome-wide expression datasets have identified such signatures, but these signatures leave much to be desired in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, and biological interpretability. Methods that take advantage of structured prior knowledge (eg, protein interaction networks) show promise in helping to define better signatures, but most knowledge remains unstructured. Crowdsourcing via scientific discovery games is an emerging methodology that has the potential to tap into human intelligence at scales and in modes unheard of before. The main objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that knowledge linking expression patterns of specific genes to breast cancer outcomes could be captured from players of an open, Web-based game. We envisioned capturing knowledge both from the player's prior experience and from their ability to interpret text related to candidate genes presented to them in the context of the game. We developed and evaluated an online game called The Cure that captured information from players regarding genes for use as predictors of breast cancer survival. Information gathered from game play was aggregated using a voting approach, and used to create rankings of genes. The top genes from these rankings were evaluated using annotation enrichment analysis, comparison to prior predictor gene sets, and by using them to train and test machine learning systems for predicting 10 year survival. Between its launch in September 2012 and September 2013, The Cure attracted more than 1000 registered players, who collectively played nearly 10,000 games. Gene sets assembled through aggregation of the collected data showed significant enrichment for genes known to be related to key concepts such as cancer, disease progression, and recurrence. In terms of the predictive accuracy of models trained using this

  5. Macrophage serum markers in pneumococcal bacteremia: Prediction of survival by soluble CD163

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Holger Jon; K. Moestrup, Søren; Weis, Nina Margrethe

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is a new macrophage-specific serum marker. This study investigated sCD163 and other markers of macrophage activation (neopterin, ferritin, transcobalamin, and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor [suPAR]) as prognostic factors in patients...... analyses at the time of first positive blood culture. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: sCD163 was highly correlated with other macrophage markers and was significantly elevated (median [25-75 percentiles], 4.6 mg/L [2.8-8.9]) compared with healthy controls (2.7 mg/L [2.1-3.3], p ..., all macrophage markers were increased in patients who died from their infection compared with survivors, whereas no change was observed in any of the markers in the very old age. At cutoff levels of 9.5 mg/L (sCD163) and 1650 nmol/L (C-reactive protein), the relative risk for fatal outcome in patients...

  6. Morphometric evaluation of nitric oxide synthase isoforms and their cytokine regulators predict pulmonary dysfunction and survival in systemic sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.R. Parra

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Because histopathological changes in the lungs of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc are consistent with alveolar and vessel cell damage, we presume that this interaction can be characterized by analyzing the expression of proteins regulating nitric oxide (NO and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1 synthesis. To validate the importance of alveolar-vascular interactions and to explore the quantitative relationship between these factors and other clinical data, we studied these markers in 23 cases of SSc nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (SSc-NSIP. We used immunohistochemistry and morphometry to evaluate the amount of cells in alveolar septa and vessels staining for NO synthase (NOS and PAI-1, and the outcomes of our study were cellular and fibrotic NSIP, pulmonary function tests, and survival time until death. General linear model analysis demonstrated that staining for septal inducible NOS (iNOS related significantly to staining of septal cells for interleukin (IL-4 and to septal IL-13. In univariate analysis, higher levels of septal and vascular cells staining for iNOS were associated with a smaller percentage of septal and vascular cells expressing fibroblast growth factor and myofibroblast proliferation, respectively. Multivariate Cox model analysis demonstrated that, after controlling for SSc-NSIP histological patterns, just three variables were significantly associated with survival time: septal iNOS (P=0.04, septal IL-13 (P=0.03, and septal basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF; P=0.02. Augmented NOS, IL-13, and bFGF in SSc-NSIP histological patterns suggest a possible functional role for iNOS in SSc. In addition, the extent of iNOS, PAI-1, and IL-4 staining in alveolar septa and vessels provides a possible independent diagnostic measure for the degree of pulmonary dysfunction and fibrosis with an impact on the survival of patients with SSc.

  7. Influence of diethylmaleate on the survival of irradiated mice and on serum protein levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernardes, E.

    1990-01-01

    Glutathione (GSH) is the major of the living plants or animal cell low molecular weight thiol compound which serves as a main endogenous cellular radioprotector. In order to improve radiotherapy, a possible approach should be to try to administrate hypoxic cell radiosensitizers altogether with glutathione intracellular depletors, for example, a binding GSH agent like diethylmaleate (DEM), in an attempt to overcome the neurotoxic side effects while maintaining their radiosensitizing properties. This study was performed to investigate whether the administration of DEM alone could modify the radioresistance of mice as measure by the 30-day-survival after irradiation and to establish whether this modification can be reflected in the murine serum protein profiles. Millimolar concentrations of DEM were dissolved alternatively in commercial peanut oil or absolute ethanol (final concentration 0.27%) and administered to male or female albino mice ip 1 h prior to 9 Gy sup(60) Cowhole-body irradiation with an average dose rate of 5.2 Gy/min. (author)

  8. Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G; Sargent, Daniel J; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

    2012-03-01

    Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download. © 2011, The International Biometric Society No claim to original US government works.

  9. Prediction of the safety level in a tritium processing facility through predictive maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anghel, Vasile

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The safety level of a nuclear facility for personnel and environment depends generally on the technological process quality of operation and maintenance and particularly on several technical, technological, economic, and human factors. The role of maintenance is fundamental because it is determined by all the technical, economic and human elements as parts of an integrated system dominated by an important feedback from upstream activities which eventually define the life cycle of the nuclear facility considered. In the maintenance activity as in case of any dynamic area, new elements may appear which, sometimes, require new methods of approach. For considered installation which is a Nuclear Detritiation Plant (NDP) operating as a division of the National Research and Development Institute for Cryogenics and Isotopic Technologies - ICSI, Rm.Valcea, in order to ensure a safety level in operation as high as possible through predictive maintenance, the fuzzy theory and software LabVIEW were applied. The final aim is to achieve the best practices in maintenance of the tritium processing plant. The safety in operation of the NDP equipment and installations is directly related with the maintenance achieved by improving the reliability through methods and advanced techniques. The maintainability is the capacity of an industrial product, in given utilization conditions, to be maintained and re-established up to achieve specified functions. In general the reliability on some interval is a probability conditioned by good operation at the beginning of the interval, representing thus the probability as the element which operated at t = t 0 to operate in the interval (t 0 , t 1 ). The failure is a fundamental event in the reliability theory. Breakdown (failure) is understood as the stop process of the function required from a given product, the failure representing the effect upon that process. The operation of a product on a certain duration can be a 'success' or a

  10. Climate Prediction Center Indonesia Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial Indonesia region...

  11. Predictive modelling of noise level generated during sawing of rocks ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an experimental and statistical study on noise level generated .... hardness were determined according to related ISRM (1981) suggested methods. Thin section ..... tistical Package for the Social Sciences). Additionally, the ...

  12. Importance of stress-response genes to the survival of airborne Escherichia coli under different levels of relative humidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Tsz Wai; Chan, Wing Lam; Lai, Ka Man

    2017-12-01

    Other than the needs for infection control to investigate the survival and inactivation of airborne bacterial pathogens, there has been a growing interest in exploring bacterial communities in the air and the effect of environmental variables on them. However, the innate biological mechanism influencing the bacterial viability is still unclear. In this study, a mutant-based approach, using Escherichia coli as a model, was used to prove the concept that common stress-response genes are important for airborne survival of bacteria. Mutants with a single gene knockout that are known to respond to general stress (rpoS) and oxidative stress (oxyR, soxR) were selected in the study. Low relative humidity (RH), 30-40% was more detrimental to the bacteria than high RH, >90%. The log reduction of ∆rpoS was always higher than that of the parental strain at all RH levels but the ∆oxyR had a higher log reduction than the parental strain at intermediate RH only. ∆soxR had the same viability compared to the parental strain at all RH levels. The results hint that although different types and levels of stress are produced under different RH conditions, stress-response genes always play a role in the bacterial viability. This study is the first reporting the association between stress-response genes and viability of airborne bacteria.

  13. Diagnostic performance of initial serum albumin level for predicting in-hospital mortality among aspiration pneumonia patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyosun; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Lee, Jeong Moon; Park, Boyoung

    2018-01-01

    The predictive value of serum albumin in adult aspiration pneumonia patients remains unknown. Using data collected during a 3-year retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients with aspiration pneumonia, we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. 248 Patients were enrolled; of these, 51 cases died (20.6%). The mean serum albumin level was 3.4±0.7g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (3.0±0.6g/dL vs. 3.5±0.6g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.16-0.57). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for in-hospital survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.80). The Youden index was 3.2g/dL and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 68.6%, 66.5%, 34.7%, 89.1%, 2.05 and 0.47, respectively. High sensitivity (98.0%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0g/dL and high specificity (94.9%) was shown at level of 2.5g/dL. Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Regional Emphysema Score Predicting Overall Survival, Quality of Life, and Pulmonary Function Recovery in Early-Stage Lung Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Jie; Liu, Ming; Swensen, Stephen J; Stoddard, Shawn M; Wampfler, Jason A; Limper, Andrew H; Jiang, Gening; Yang, Ping

    2017-05-01

    Pulmonary emphysema is a frequent comorbidity in lung cancer, but its role in tumor prognosis remains obscure. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of the regional emphysema score (RES) on a patient's overall survival, quality of life (QOL), and recovery of pulmonary function in stage I to II lung cancer. Between 1997 and 2009, a total of 1073 patients were identified and divided into two surgical groups-cancer in the emphysematous (group 1 [n = 565]) and nonemphysematous (group 2 [n = 435]) regions-and one nonsurgical group (group 3 [n = 73]). RES was derived from the emphysematous region and categorized as mild (≤5%), moderate (6%-24%), or severe (25%-60%). In group 1, patients with a moderate or severe RES experienced slight decreases in postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second, but increases in the ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity compared with those with a mild RES (p < 0.01); however, this correlation was not observed in group 2. Posttreatment QOL was lower in patients with higher RESs in all groups, mainly owing to dyspnea (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis revealed that patients with a higher RES had significantly poorer survival in both surgical groups, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.41 and 1.43 for a moderate RES and 1.63 and 2.04 for a severe RES, respectively; however, this association was insignificant in the nonsurgical group (adjusted hazard ratio of 0.99 for a moderate or severe RES). In surgically treated patients with cancer in the emphysematous region, RES is associated with postoperative changes in lung function. RES is also predictive of posttreatment QOL related to dyspnea in early-stage lung cancer. In both surgical groups, RES is an independent predictor of survival. Copyright © 2017 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. APOBEC3G levels predict rates of progression to AIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Hulin

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background APOBEC3G (hA3G is a newly discovered cellular factor of innate immunity that inhibits HIV replication in vitro. Whether hA3G conferrs protection against HIV in vivo is not known. To investigate the possible anti-HIV activity of hA3G in vivo, we examined hA3G mRNA abundance in primary human cells isolated from either HIV-infected or HIV-uninfected individuals, and found that hA3G mRNA levels follow a hierarchical order of long-term nonprogressors>HIV-uninfected>Progressors; and, hA3G mRNA abundance is correlated with surrogates of HIV disease progression: viral load and CD4 count. Another group later confirmed that HIV-infected subjects have lower hA3G mRNA levels than HIV-uninfected controls, but did not find correlations between hA3G mRNA levels and viral load or CD4 count. These conflicing results indicate that a more comprehensive, conclusive investigation of hA3G expression levels in various patient cohorts is urgently needed. Presentation of the hypothesis For exploring whether hA3G abundance might influence HIV disease progression, we have formulated a hypothesis that inlcudes two parts: a in vivo, the basal hA3G mRNA expression level per PBMC is a constant – with minor physiologic fluctuations – determined by host genetic and epigenetic elements in a healthy individual; and that the basal hA3G mRNA expression levels in a population follow a Normal (or Gaussian distribution; b that although HIV infects randomly, it results in more rapid disease progression in those with lower hA3G mRNA levels, and slower disease progression in those with higher hA3G mRNA levels. Testing the hypothesis This hypothesis could be tested by a straighforward set of experiments to compare the distribution of hA3G mRNA levels in HIV-uninfected healthy individuals and that in HIV-infected, antiretroviral therapy-naïve subjects who are at early and late stages of infection. Implication of the hypothesis Testing this hypothesis will have

  16. Prediction of BMI by impulsivity, eating behavior and activity level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Xiaxia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Discuss the relationship between the impulsivity, eating behavior and activity level and the body mass index (BMI. Method: Test 147 female college students with the impulsivity questionnaire (BIS-11 and BIS/BAS, Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DBEQ, Sitting Time Scale (STS and Exercising Time Scale (ETS. Results: (1 The correlation analysis indicates that BMI and impulsivity (r = 0.43 and 0.52 have a significant positive correlation with the sitting time (r = 0.61 and a significant negative correlation with the activity level (r= −0.49. (2 The path analysis indicates that the reward sensitivity directly affects BMI and indirectly affects BMI through the activity level as well; the eating behavior has an insignificantly direct impact on BMI, because its impact is generated by the intermediary role of induced diet. Conclusion: (1 The impulsivity, eating behavior and activity level are closely related to BMI; (2 the activity level, sitting time and induced diet play an intermediary role between the impulsivity and BMI.

  17. Low vitamin D levels predict clinical features of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieslak, Kristina; Feingold, Jordyn; Antonius, Daniel; Walsh-Messinger, Julie; Dracxler, Roberta; Rosedale, Mary; Aujero, Nicole; Keefe, David; Goetz, Deborah; Goetz, Raymond; Malaspina, Dolores

    2014-11-01

    Vitamin D plays crucial roles in neuroprotection and neurodevelopment, and low levels are commonly associated with schizophrenia. We considered if the association was spurious or causal by examining the association of Vitamin D with Leukocyte Telomere Length (LTL), a marker of cellular aging. Vitamin D levels in 22 well-characterized schizophrenia cases were examined with respect to symptoms, cognition, and functioning. LTL was assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The results showed that 91% (20) had deficient or insufficient Vitamin D levels, which were associated with excitement and grandiosity, social anhedonia, and poverty of speech. Sex-specific analyses showed strong associations of hypovitamintosis D to negative symptoms and decreased premorbid adjustment in males, and to lesser hallucinations and emotional withdrawal, but increased anti-social aggression in females. In females LTL was furthermore associated with Vitamin D levels. This study demonstrates a relationship of low vitamin D levels with increased cellular aging in females. It is also the first study to demonstrate potential sex-specific profiles among schizophrenia cases with hypovitaminosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Can pre- and postoperative magnetic resonance imaging predict recurrence-free survival after whole-gland high-intensity focused ablation for prostate cancer?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosset, Remy; Bratan, Flavie [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urinary and Vascular Radiology, Lyon (France); Crouzet, Sebastien [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Universite de Lyon, Lyon (France); Faculte de Medecine Lyon Est, Universite Lyon 1, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France); Tonoli-Catez, Helene [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Mege-Lechevallier, Florence [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Pathology, Lyon (France); Gelet, Albert [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France); Rouviere, Olivier [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urinary and Vascular Radiology, Lyon (France); Universite de Lyon, Lyon (France); Faculte de Medecine Lyon Est, Universite Lyon 1, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France)

    2017-04-15

    Our aim was to assess whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after prostate cancer high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation. We retrospectively selected 81 patients who underwent (i) whole-gland HIFU ablation between 2007 and 2011 as first-line therapy or salvage treatment after radiotherapy or brachytherapy, and (ii) pre- and postoperative MRI. On preoperative imaging, two senior (R1, R2) and one junior (R3) readers assessed the number of sectors invaded by the lesion with the highest Likert score (dominant lesion) using a 27-sector diagram. On postoperative imaging, readers assessed destruction of the dominant lesion using a three-level score. Multivariate analysis included the number of sectors invaded by the dominant lesion, its Likert and destruction scores, the pre-HIFU prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, and the clinical setting (primary/salvage). The most significant predictor was the number of prostate sectors invaded by the dominant lesion for R2 and R3 (p≤0.001) and the destruction score of the dominant lesion for R1 (p = 0.011). The pre-HIFU PSA level was an independent predictor for R2 (p = 0.014), but with only marginal significance for R1 (p = 0.059) and R3 (p = 0.053). The dominant lesion's size and destruction assessed by MRI provide independent prognostic information compared with usual predictors. (orig.)

  19. Common sole larvae survive high levels of pile-driving sound in controlled exposure experiments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loes J Bolle

    Full Text Available In view of the rapid extension of offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to improve our knowledge on possible adverse effects of underwater sound generated by pile-driving. Mortality and inju