WorldWideScience

Sample records for internists epidemics outbreaks

  1. Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis epidemics and outbreaks of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An epidemic of acute conjunctivitis in Dar es Salaam in 2010 demonstrated the importance of a strong infectious diseases epidemiological surveillance network to minimise disease outbreaks. Misunderstanding of the causes and management of diseases explains the repetitive nature of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis ...

  2. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  3. Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Oscar A.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2011-01-01

    Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for “accidental pathogens” which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way. PMID:21760930

  4. A study of the 2006 Chikungunya epidemic outbreak in Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Chikungunya epidemic outbreaks have affected more than 1 million people in 2005-2006 in many Indian Ocean islands and in India. Mauritius experienced a major outbreak in February/March 2006 following a minor outbreak in April/May 2005. No cases have been registered on the island since August 2006.

  5. A study of the 2006 Chikungunya epidemic outbreak in Mauritius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr. V. Pydiah

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Chikungunya epidemic outbreaks have affected more than 1 million people in 2005-2006 in many Indian Ocean islands and in India. Mauritius experienced a major outbreak in February/March 2006 following a minor outbreak in April/May 2005. No cases have been registered on the island since August 2006. The objectives of this study were to understand the timing and development of the 2006-outbreak in Mauritius, to investigate the possibility of a future outbreak, and to propose measures to prevent the recurrence of an epidemic in Mauritius. Mauritius rainfall, temperature and humidity data were analyzed. A door-to-door household census-type survey was carried out in a study locality on the island. A compartmental human-mosquito interaction model was integrated to understand outbreak evolutions in the surveyed locality and in a theoretical locality. It was observed that the onset of the 2006-outbreak in February followed an abnormally high rainfall in the third week of January 2006. 51% of the surveyed population was found to be suspected Chikungunya cases. Computer simulations indicated that a small number of infected humans and mosquitoes existed in the surveyed locality at the outbreak onset. From simulations in the theoretical locality, it was deduced that the level of infectivity in some localities may be below a herd immunity threshold and that the additional percentage of infected inhabitants in a follow-up epidemic would be significantly reduced with the case-reactive control of infected adult mosquitoes.

  6. WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, Andrew J; McKane, Alan J

    2011-01-01

    We calculate both the exponential and prefactor contributions in a WKB approximation of the master equation for a stochastic SIR model with highly oscillatory dynamics. Fixing the basic parameters of the model, we investigate how the outbreak distribution changes with the population size. We show that this distribution rapidly becomes highly non-Gaussian, acquiring large tails, indicating the presence of rare but large outbreaks, as the population is made smaller. The analytic results are found to be in excellent agreement with simulations until the systems become so small that the dynamics are dominated by fade-out of the disease

  7. Outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis caused by adenovirus in medical residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, Carlos Pantoja; Florentino, Margarita Matias; Martinez, Irma Lopez; Lopez, Herlinda Mejia

    2009-01-01

    The present work documents an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among ophthalmology residents, its influence in the presentation of the community cases, the use of molecular techniques for its diagnosis, and the implementation of successful control measures for its containment. Isolation of the etiologic agent was achieved using cultured African green monkey kidney epithelial cells (VERO). Through molecular tests, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and DNA sequencing, the genotype of the isolated virus was identified. The sequences obtained were aligned with data reported in the NCBI GenBank. A scheme of outbreak control measures was designed to enforce correct sanitary measures in the clinic. The statistical program, Epi info 2002, and openepi were used to determine the attack rate. The Excel Microsoft program was used to elaborate the endemic channel. Nine of the ten samples studied were isolated from the culture and identified by Adenovirus-specifc PCR. Sequencing allowed identification of Ad8 as the agent responsible for the outbreak. The attack rate was 24.39 cases per 100. The epidemic curve allowed identification of a disseminated source in the Institute of Ophthalmology "Conde de Valenciana." It was not possible to calculate the incubation periods among the cases. The endemic channel showed the presence of an epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among the patients that had been cared for at the out-patient services of the institute. One outbreak of a disseminated source caused by Ad8 was detected in the institute among its medical residents, probably associated with relaxation of the habitual sanitary measures during an epidemic of hemorrhagic conjunctivitis among the patients cared for at the institute. The proposed scheme to control the outbreak allowed for its containment and controlled the epidemic of associated cases.

  8. An outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis at an outpatient ophthalmology clinic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy J Doyle

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC is an acute eye infection caused by adenovirus. We investigated an outbreak of EKC at an outpatient ophthalmology practice in the context of a suspected community wide increase in EKC activity. A site visit was made to the facility reporting the outbreak. A line list was created of patients clinically diagnosed with EKC at the practice during the previous 5 months. A questionnaire was faxed to all other licensed ophthalmologists in the county regarding recent EKC activity in their facility. Descriptive data analyses were conducted. The outbreak facility reported 37 patients clinically diagnosed with EKC during the previous 5 months. In addition, the single ophthalmologist at the practice also had symptoms compatible with EKC during the outbreak period. Specimens were collected on 4 patients and all were positive for adenovirus serotype 8. Forty percent of ophthalmologists surveyed in the county saw at least one EKC patient in the previous 3 months, and 20% reported a perceived increase in EKC activity in recent months over normal seasonal patterns. The outbreak at the facility likely began as part of a widespread community increase in EKC that may have been amplified at the facility through nosocomial transmission. Medical providers experiencing increases in EKC activity above seasonally expected norms should contact their public health department for assistance with etiologic diagnoses and outbreak control.

  9. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haifeng; Zhang, Jie; Zhou, Changsong; Small, Michael; Wang, Binghong

    2010-02-01

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  10. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael; Zhou Changsong

    2010-01-01

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  11. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Amandu Matua

    2015-05-01

    The current epidemic management approaches are largely “reactive”, with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to “reactive” interventions, “pre-emptive” strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both “reactive” and “pre-emptive” strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks.

  12. Rolling epidemic of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks in small geographic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntyre, C Raina; Dyda, Amalie; Bui, Chau Minh; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad

    2018-03-21

    Legionnaires' disease (LD) is reported from many parts of the world, mostly linked to drinking water sources or cooling towers. We reviewed two unusual rolling outbreaks in Sydney and New York, each clustered in time and space. Data on these outbreaks were collected from public sources and compared to previous outbreaks in Australia and the US. While recurrent outbreaks of LD over time linked to an identified single source have been described, multiple unrelated outbreaks clustered in time and geography have not been previously described. We describe unusual geographic and temporal clustering of Legionella outbreaks in two cities, each of which experienced multiple different outbreaks within a small geographic area and within a short timeframe. The explanation for this temporal and spatial clustering of LD outbreaks in two cities is not clear, but climate variation and deteriorating water sanitation are two possible explanations. There is a need to critically analyse LD outbreaks and better understand changing trends to effectively prevent disease.

  13. An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgibbon, W E; Morgan, J J; Webb, G F

    2017-03-27

    A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an outbreak that arises from a small number of infected hosts imported into a subregion of the geographical setting. The goal is to understand how spatial heterogeneity of the vector and host populations influences the dynamics of the outbreak, in both the geographical spread and the final size of the epidemic. Partial differential equations are formulated to describe the spatial interaction of the hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations have reaction-diffusion terms to describe the criss-cross interactions of hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. A local basic reproduction number for the epidemic is analyzed. The epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. The partial differential equations of the model are adapted to seasonality of the vector population, and applied to the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil. The results for the model simulations of the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality indicate that the spatial distribution and final size of the epidemic at the end of the season are strongly dependent on the location and magnitude of local outbreaks at the beginning of the season. The application of the model to the Rio de Janeiro Municipality Zika 2015-2016 outbreak is limited by incompleteness of the epidemic data and by uncertainties in the parametric assumptions of the model.

  14. [Epidemic and control strategy on nosocomial outbreak of norovirus gastroenteritis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qian

    2008-10-01

    Noroviruses are the leading cause of acute viral gastroenteritis in human beings and frequently cause the outbreaks of nosocomial infections. Based on the pathogenic characteristics of noroviruses, this article describes the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of norovirus gastroenteritis outbreak in hospital and explores the measures to prevent and control the nosocomial outbreak.

  15. The Impact of an Epidemic Outbreak on Consumer Expenditures:An Empirical Assessment for MERS Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Jung

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the effect of an epidemic outbreak on consumer expenditures. In light of scanner panel data on consumers’ debit and credit card transactions, we present empirical evidence that outbreaks cause considerable disruption in total consumer expenditures with significant heterogeneity across categories. Our findings strongly imply that customers alter their behaviors to reduce the risk of infection. The estimated effect of an epidemic outbreak is qualitatively different from that of other macroeconomic factors. The implications of this research provide important guidance for policy interventions and marketing decisions aimed at sustaining economic growth.

  16. Societal learning in epidemics: intervention effectiveness during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Drake

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Rapid response to outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is impeded by uncertain diagnoses and delayed communication. Understanding the effect of inefficient response is a potentially important contribution of epidemic theory. To develop this understanding we studied societal learning during emerging outbreaks wherein patient removal accelerates as information is gathered and disseminated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed an extension of a standard outbreak model, the simple stochastic epidemic, which accounts for societal learning. We obtained expressions for the expected outbreak size and the distribution of epidemic duration. We found that rapid learning noticeably affects the final outbreak size even when learning exhibits diminishing returns (relaxation. As an example, we estimated the learning rate for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS in Singapore. Evidence for relaxation during the first eight weeks of the outbreak was inconclusive. We estimated that if societal learning had occurred at half the actual rate, the expected final size of the outbreak would have reached nearly 800 cases, more than three times the observed number of infections. By contrast, the expected outbreak size for societal learning twice as effective was 116 cases. CONCLUSION: These results show that the rate of societal learning can greatly affect the final size of disease outbreaks, justifying investment in early warning systems and attentiveness to disease outbreak by both government authorities and the public. We submit that the burden of emerging infections, including the risk of a global pandemic, could be efficiently reduced by improving procedures for rapid detection of outbreaks, alerting public health officials, and aggressively educating the public at the start of an outbreak.

  17. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

  18. Water-borne epidemic outbreaks; Brotes epidemicos de transmision hidrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciranda Larrea, F.B.; Hidalgo Garcia, E.; Peiro Callizo, E.F.; Herrero Alana, G.

    1995-12-31

    The control of water-transmitted infections is one of the key aims of any Public Heath-Care System. For this paper a descriptive epidemiologic analysis has been performed using data obtained through normalized forms as well as Annual Reports of Epidemiology Units and Veterinary Inspection Records. A total of 22 outbreaks have been recorded in the period of reference. Those outbreaks affected 2.263 people. The attack-rate was of 99 people affected for each 1000 ar risk. The main agents turned out to be Norwalk virus, Rotavirus and A-Hepatitis virus. The most important risk factor was undoubtedly the ingestion of untreated or not properly treated water. The improvement of water treatment and distribution systems, the increase in the population being supplied with potable water, along with the ease of the drought have caused a significant drop in the number of water-transmitted outbreaks. (Author)

  19. Adenovirus-related epidemic keratoconjunctivitis outbreak at a hospital-affiliated ophthalmology clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Matthew P; Siddiqui, Naureen; Ivancic, Rose; Wong, David

    2018-01-02

    Adenovirus-associated epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (A-EKC) is a cause of large and prolonged outbreaks in ophthalmology clinics and can result in substantial morbidity. A-EKC outbreaks are often the result of contaminated ophthalmologic equipment, surfaces, or hands. Contaminated multidose eye drops are also a likely culprit, but few prior studies provide clear epidemiologic evidence that adenovirus transmission resulted from contamination of eye drops. We describe an A-EKC outbreak at a large, hospital-affiliated eye clinic that affected 44 patients. The unique epidemiology of the outbreak provides strong evidence that contaminated multidose dilating eye drops resulted in adenovirus transmission. Removal of multidose eye medication from the clinic, combined with case finding, enhanced infection control and enhanced environmental cleaning, led to rapid control of the outbreak. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Dutch Q fever epidemic in a ‘One Health’ context: outbreaks, seroprevalence and occupational risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schimmer, Barbara

    2018-01-01

    Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii). Small ruminants, in particular sheep and goats, have been associated with community Q fever outbreaks in other countries. Just prior to the Dutch Q fever epidemic, a nationwide survey indicated that only 2.4% of

  1. Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

  2. Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barthélemy Marc

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The introduction of extensive transportation data sets is therefore an important step in order to develop epidemic models endowed with realism. Methods We develop a general stochastic meta-population model that incorporates actual travel and census data among 3 100 urban areas in 220 countries. The model allows probabilistic predictions on the likelihood of country outbreaks and their magnitude. The level of predictability offered by the model can be quantitatively analyzed and related to the appearance of robust epidemic pathways that represent the most probable routes for the spread of the disease. Results In order to assess the predictive power of the model, the case study of the global spread of SARS is considered. The disease parameter values and initial conditions used in the model are evaluated from empirical data for Hong Kong. The outbreak likelihood for specific countries is evaluated along with the emerging epidemic pathways. Simulation results are in agreement with the empirical data of the SARS worldwide epidemic. Conclusion The presented computational approach shows that the integration of long-range mobility and demographic data provides epidemic models with a predictive power that can be consistently tested and theoretically motivated. This computational strategy can be therefore considered as a general tool in the analysis and forecast of the global spreading of emerging diseases and in the definition of containment policies aimed at reducing the effects of potentially catastrophic outbreaks.

  3. Telephone Medicine for Internists

    OpenAIRE

    Elnicki, D Michael; Ogden, Paul; Flannery, Michael; Hannis, Mark; Cykert, Sam

    2000-01-01

    The role of the telephone in medical practice is important, but often problematic. Mistakes in telephone diagnosis and triage can have severe consequences. An effective office system can reduce liability risks, and in some cases telephone contact can substitute for office visits. Internists feel unprepared to provide telephone care. Therefore, residency education needs to focus on documentation, consultant availability, and performance feedback. Research should focus on improving outcomes, re...

  4. Deciphering Dynamics of Recent Epidemic Spread and Outbreak in West Africa: The Case of Ebola Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

    Recently, the 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa was the largest outbreak to date. In this paper, an attempt has been made for modeling the virus dynamics using an SEIR model to better understand and characterize the transmission trajectories of the Ebola outbreak. We compare the simulated results with the most recent reported data of Ebola infected cases in the three most affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The epidemic model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free and unique endemic equilibria. Existence and local stability of these equilibria are explored. Using central manifold theory, it is established that the transcritical bifurcation occurs when basic reproduction number passes through unity. The proposed Ebola epidemic model provides an estimate to the potential number of future cases. The model indicates that the disease will decline after peaking if multisectorial and multinational efforts to control the spread of infection are maintained. Possible implication of the results for disease eradication and its control are discussed which suggests that proper control strategies like: (i) transmission precautions, (ii) isolation and care of infectious Ebola patients, (iii) safe burial, (iv) contact tracing with follow-up and quarantine, and (v) early diagnosis are needed to stop the recurrent outbreak.

  5. An epidemic outbreak of canine cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia caused by Leishmania braziliensis and Leishmania panamensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vélez, Iván D; Carrillo, Lina M; López, Liliana; Rodríguez, Erwin; Robledo, Sara M

    2012-05-01

    The largest recorded outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia's history occurred during 2005-2009 in soldiers of the Colombian Army, with ~40,000 cases. This outbreak was caused by the influx of military personnel into the jungle with the mission of combat illicit crops and the guerrilla. The soldiers remain for long periods within the rainforest and are exposed to the bite of infected sand flies. During the military activities, soldiers work with dogs specially trained to detect landmines, and therefore, dogs are also exposed to the infected sand flies and show high incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). This work describes an epidemic outbreak of canine CL caused by Leishmania braziliensis and Leishmania panamensis in Colombia, South America. The clinical features of the disease and the response to treatment with pentavalent antimonials observed in 72 guard dogs from the Colombian Army are described. A program for prevention and control of canine CL is also discussed.

  6. Fatal outbreaks of jaundice in pregnancy and the epidemic history of hepatitis E.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, C-G

    2012-05-01

    Space-time clustering of people who fall acutely ill with jaundice, then slip into coma and death, is an alarming phenomenon, more markedly so when the victims are mostly or exclusively pregnant. Documentation of the peculiar, fatal predisposition of pregnant women during outbreaks of jaundice identifies hepatitis E and enables construction of its epidemic history. Between the last decade of the 18th century and the early decades of the 20th century, hepatitis E-like outbreaks were reported mainly from Western Europe and several of its colonies. During the latter half of the 20th century, reports of these epidemics, including those that became serologically confirmed as hepatitis E, emanated from, first, the eastern and southern Mediterranean littoral and, thereafter, Southern and Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the rest of Africa. The dispersal has been accompanied by a trend towards more frequent and larger-scale occurrences. Epidemic and endemic hepatitis E still beset people inhabiting Asia and Africa, especially pregnant women and their fetuses and infants. Their relief necessitates not only accelerated access to potable water and sanitation but also vaccination against hepatitis E.

  7. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lourenço

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  8. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  9. Echovirus 30 meningitis epidemic followed by an outbreak-specific RT-qPCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Österback, Riikka; Kalliokoski, Teemu; Lähdesmäki, Tuire; Peltola, Ville; Ruuskanen, Olli; Waris, Matti

    2015-08-01

    An outbreak of enteroviral aseptic meningitis emerged in Southwestern Finland in August 2009. The same enterovirus reappeared with increasing incidence of meningitis in other parts of Finland in 2010. To identify the incidence and molecular epidemiology of enteroviral meningitis outbreak. The causative agent was identified as echovirus 30 (E-30) by sequencing partial viral protein 1 capsid genome, and a virus type-specific RT-qPCR was set up for sensitive detection of the virus in cerebrospinal fluid specimens. Enterovirus positive CSF specimens were subjected to the E-30-specific assay to investigate this unusual occurrence of aseptic meningitis and facilitate case confirmation during the outbreaks between August 2009 and September 2010. E-30 was detected in 106 (72%) enterovirus positive cerebrospinal fluid specimens. All the meningitis cases in 2009 and most of them in 2010 were among adolescents and several were members of sport teams. Between August 2009 and September 2010, E-30 caused an extensive outbreak with two peaks in Finland. Type-specific RT-PCR allowed rapid diagnostic follow-up of the epidemic. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. [Epidemic outbreak of 81 cases of brucellosis following the consumption of fresh cheese without pasteurization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castell Monsalve, J; Rullán, J V; Peiró Callizo, E F; Nieto-Sandoval Alcolea, A

    1996-01-01

    In spite of the great effort that has been made in recent years in Castilla-La Mancha to control brucelosis, a lack of awareness on the part of producers and consumers leads to major epidemic outbreak, such as the one described below. A description of the outbreak is described and a study is conducted of cases and controls to determine the factors which are responsible for the epidemic. Unadjusted and adjusted Odds Ratios (O.R.) are obtained together with their confidence intervals, for the main epidemiological factors studied. A total of 81 cases of brucelosis were recorded in a period of 25 weeks. All the cases occurred in the same borough or were in some way linked to it. In the case and controls study no differences were found with regard to age, sex, contact with livestock or the consumption of pasteurised milk or cheese. A strong link was established between the illness and the consumption of home-made cottage cheese prepared by a small-scale producer in the borough, (O.R. = 311.9; C.I. = 95% = 41.48-12735)., whose livestock turned out to be infected with Brucella Mellitensis. This outbreak showed that in Spain, there is a risk of contracting brucelosis by consuming non-pasteurised dairy products, particularly cheese, when these are not subjected to the normal sanitary and health controls. The benefits of epidemiological research in the search for cases and determining the factors responsible for the outbreak are also demonstrated. An intensification of controls, the cleansing of the herds and flocks and health education in general, are suitable instruments for controlling this zoonosis in Spain.

  11. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Polanco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010 taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts.

  12. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E.; Samaniego, José Lino; Buhse, Thomas; Villanueva-Martínez, Sebastián

    2013-01-01

    A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010) taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts. PMID:24069063

  13. An outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivtis in a pediatric unit due to adenovirus type 8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaberny, Iris E; Schnitzler, Paul; Geiss, Heinrich Konrad; Wendt, Constanze

    2003-07-01

    To investigate and control an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC) occurring in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and to determine signs specific for EKC in newborns. Outbreak investigation and case-control study. NICU of a 1,600-bed university hospital in Heidelberg, Germany. Case-patients were defined as individuals who had adenoviral antigen detected by ELISA or by PCR from conjunctival swabs or who had clinical signs of conjunctivitis. Twelve newborns from the NICU who had EKC between October and November 1998 were compared with 11 who had bacterial conjunctivitis. Control measures included cohorting patients in contact isolation, using gloves and gowns for patient care, and using a hand rub and disinfectants with virucidal activity. Thirteen patients, 6 healthcare and 11workers, relatives of the patients had EKC, according to our case definition. Case-patients were more likely than control-patients to develop lacrimal swelling (P newborns were seen by an ophthalmologist from a nearby eye care center where an EKC outbreak was ongong. No new cases were diagnosed more than 10 days after the implementation of control measures. In newborns, lacrimal swelling, eye redness, and lacrimation in both eyes should evoke suspicion of EKC. Ophthalmologists who have had contact with known EKC cases should use antiseptics and disinfectants with virucidal activity before contact with newborns or abstain from examining newborns.

  14. Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

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    Robin N Thompson

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We assess how presymptomatic infection affects predictability of infectious disease epidemics. We focus on whether or not a major outbreak (i.e. an epidemic that will go on to infect a large number of individuals can be predicted reliably soon after initial cases of disease have appeared within a population. For emerging epidemics, significant time and effort is spent recording symptomatic cases. Scientific attention has often focused on improving statistical methodologies to estimate disease transmission parameters from these data. Here we show that, even if symptomatic cases are recorded perfectly, and disease spread parameters are estimated exactly, it is impossible to estimate the probability of a major outbreak without ambiguity. Our results therefore provide an upper bound on the accuracy of forecasts of major outbreaks that are constructed using data on symptomatic cases alone. Accurate prediction of whether or not an epidemic will occur requires records of symptomatic individuals to be supplemented with data concerning the true infection status of apparently uninfected individuals. To forecast likely future behavior in the earliest stages of an emerging outbreak, it is therefore vital to develop and deploy accurate diagnostic tests that can determine whether asymptomatic individuals are actually uninfected, or instead are infected but just do not yet show detectable symptoms.

  15. Impact on Epidemic Measles of Vaccination Campaigns Triggered by Disease Outbreaks or Serosurveys: A Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessler, Justin; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Cutts, Felicity T; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2016-10-01

    Routine vaccination supplemented by planned campaigns occurring at 2-5 y intervals is the core of current measles control and elimination efforts. Yet, large, unexpected outbreaks still occur, even when control measures appear effective. Supplementing these activities with mass vaccination campaigns triggered when low levels of measles immunity are observed in a sample of the population (i.e., serosurveys) or incident measles cases occur may provide a way to limit the size of outbreaks. Measles incidence was simulated using stochastic age-structured epidemic models in settings conducive to high or low measles incidence, roughly reflecting demographic contexts and measles vaccination coverage of four heterogeneous countries: Nepal, Niger, Yemen, and Zambia. Uncertainty in underlying vaccination rates was modeled. Scenarios with case- or serosurvey-triggered campaigns reaching 20% of the susceptible population were compared to scenarios without triggered campaigns. The best performing of the tested case-triggered campaigns prevent an average of 28,613 (95% CI 25,722-31,505) cases over 15 y in our highest incidence setting and 599 (95% CI 464-735) cases in the lowest incidence setting. Serosurvey-triggered campaigns can prevent 89,173 (95% CI, 86,768-91,577) and 744 (612-876) cases, respectively, but are triggered yearly in high-incidence settings. Triggered campaigns reduce the highest cumulative incidence seen in simulations by up to 80%. While the scenarios considered in this strategic modeling exercise are reflective of real populations, the exact quantitative interpretation of the results is limited by the simplifications in country structure, vaccination policy, and surveillance system performance. Careful investigation into the cost-effectiveness in different contexts would be essential before moving forward with implementation. Serologically triggered campaigns could help prevent severe epidemics in the face of epidemiological and vaccination uncertainty

  16. The Effect of Regional Climate Variability on Outbreak of Bartonellosis Epidemics in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jia-Yu; Lau, K.-M.; Laughlin, Larry W.; Masuoka, Penny M.; Andre, Richard G.; Chamberlin, Judith; Lawyer, Phillip; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Bartonellosis is a vector-borne, highly fatal, emerging infectious disease, which has been known in the Peruvian Andes since the early 1600s and has continued to be a problem in many mountain valleys in Peru and other Andean South American countries. The causative bacterium, Bartonella bacilliformis (Bb), is believed to be transmitted to humans by bites of the sand fly Lutzomyia verrucarum. According to available medical records, the transmission of infection often occurs in river valleys of the Andes Mountains at an altitude between 800 and 3500 meters above sea level. It shows a seasonal pattern, which usually begins to rise in December, peaks in February and March, and is at its lowest from July until November. The epidemics of bartonellosis also vary interannually, occurring every four to eight years, and appear to be associated with the El Nino cycle. In response to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announcement on climate variability and human health, which was constructed to stimulate integrated multidisciplinary research in the area of climate variability and health interactions, we have conducted a study to investigate the relationship between the El Nino induced regional climate variation and the outbreak of bartonellosis epidemics in Peru. Two test sites, Caraz and Cusco, were selected for this study. According to reports, Caraz has a long-standing history of endemic transmission and Cusco, which is located about five degrees poleward of Caraz, had no recorded epidemics until the most recent 1997/1998 El Nino event. The goal of this study is to clarify the relative importance of climatic risk factors for each area that could be predicted in advance, thus allowing implementation of cost-effective control measures, which would reduce disease morbidity and mortality.

  17. Ebola Virus Disease 2013-2014 Outbreak in West Africa: An Analysis of the Epidemic Spread and Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Cenciarelli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Ebola virus epidemic burst in West Africa in late 2013, started in Guinea, reached in a few months an alarming diffusion, actually involving several countries (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali. Guinea and Liberia, the first nations affected by the outbreak, have put in place measures to contain the spread, supported by international organizations; then they were followed by the other nations affected. In the present EVD outbreak, the geographical spread of the virus has followed a new route: the achievement of large urban areas at an early stage of the epidemic has led to an unprecedented diffusion, featuring the largest outbreak of EVD of all time. This has caused significant concerns all over the world: the potential reaching of far countries from endemic areas, mainly through fast transports, induced several countries to issue information documents and health supervision for individuals going to or coming from the areas at risk. In this paper the geographical spread of the epidemic was analyzed, assessing the sequential appearance of cases by geographic area, considering the increase in cases and mortality according to affected nations. The measures implemented by each government and international organizations to contain the outbreak, and their effectiveness, were also evaluated.

  18. Implication of lateral genetic transfer in the emergence of Aeromonas hydrophila isolates of epidemic outbreaks in channel catfish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad J Hossain

    Full Text Available To investigate the molecular basis of the emergence of Aeromonas hydrophila responsible for an epidemic outbreak of motile aeromonad septicemia of catfish in the Southeastern United States, we sequenced 11 A. hydrophila isolates that includes five reference and six recent epidemic isolates. Comparative genomics revealed that recent epidemic A. hydrophila isolates are highly clonal, whereas reference isolates are greatly diverse. We identified 55 epidemic-associated genetic regions with 313 predicted genes that are present in epidemic isolates but absent from reference isolates and 35% of these regions are located within genomic islands, suggesting their acquisition through lateral gene transfer. The epidemic-associated regions encode predicted prophage elements, pathogenicity islands, metabolic islands, fitness islands and genes of unknown functions, and 34 of the genes encoded in these regions were predicted as virulence factors. We found two pilus biogenesis gene clusters encoded within predicted pathogenicity islands. A functional metabolic island that encodes a complete pathway for myo-inositol catabolism was evident by the ability of epidemic A. hydrophila isolates to use myo-inositol as a sole carbon source. Testing of A. hydrophila field isolates found a consistent correlation between myo-inositol utilization as a sole carbon source and the presence of an epidemic-specific genetic marker. All epidemic isolates and one reference isolate shared a novel O-antigen cluster. Altogether we identified four different O-antigen biosynthesis gene clusters within the 11 sequenced A. hydrophila genomes. Our study reveals new insights into the evolutionary changes that have resulted in the emergence of recent epidemic A. hydrophila strains.

  19. Identification of resistance and virulence factors in an epidemic Enterobacter hormaechei outbreak strain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paauw, A.; Caspers, M.P.M.; Leverstein-van Hall, M.A.; Schuren, F.H.J.; Montijn, R.C.; Verhoef, J.; Fluit, A.C.

    2009-01-01

    Bacterial strains differ in their ability to cause hospital outbreaks. Using comparative genomic hybridization, Enterobacter cloacae complex isolates were studied to identify genetic markers specific for Enterobacter cloacae complex outbreak strains. No outbreak-specific genes were found that were

  20. Impact on Epidemic Measles of Vaccination Campaigns Triggered by Disease Outbreaks or Serosurveys: A Modeling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Lessler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Routine vaccination supplemented by planned campaigns occurring at 2-5 y intervals is the core of current measles control and elimination efforts. Yet, large, unexpected outbreaks still occur, even when control measures appear effective. Supplementing these activities with mass vaccination campaigns triggered when low levels of measles immunity are observed in a sample of the population (i.e., serosurveys or incident measles cases occur may provide a way to limit the size of outbreaks.Measles incidence was simulated using stochastic age-structured epidemic models in settings conducive to high or low measles incidence, roughly reflecting demographic contexts and measles vaccination coverage of four heterogeneous countries: Nepal, Niger, Yemen, and Zambia. Uncertainty in underlying vaccination rates was modeled. Scenarios with case- or serosurvey-triggered campaigns reaching 20% of the susceptible population were compared to scenarios without triggered campaigns. The best performing of the tested case-triggered campaigns prevent an average of 28,613 (95% CI 25,722-31,505 cases over 15 y in our highest incidence setting and 599 (95% CI 464-735 cases in the lowest incidence setting. Serosurvey-triggered campaigns can prevent 89,173 (95% CI, 86,768-91,577 and 744 (612-876 cases, respectively, but are triggered yearly in high-incidence settings. Triggered campaigns reduce the highest cumulative incidence seen in simulations by up to 80%. While the scenarios considered in this strategic modeling exercise are reflective of real populations, the exact quantitative interpretation of the results is limited by the simplifications in country structure, vaccination policy, and surveillance system performance. Careful investigation into the cost-effectiveness in different contexts would be essential before moving forward with implementation.Serologically triggered campaigns could help prevent severe epidemics in the face of epidemiological and vaccination

  1. [Role of laboratory methods in epidemic control of brucellosis outbreaks in Moscow zoo nursery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulakov, Yu K; Novikova, M D; Tolmacheva, T A; Zheludkov, M M

    2015-01-01

    Evaluation of the role of contemporary methods in epidemic control of brucellosis outbreaks among employees of auxiliary facilities in Moscow zoo nursery. During 2003-2013, biannually, sera from more than 200 employees of the nursery, that work during periods of epizootics of small and large cattle in nursery auxiliary facilities, were studied. A complex of laboratory methods for brucellosis was used: variations of traditional serologic agglutination method in tubes--Wright's reaction (WR), on glass--Huddleston's reaction, Coombs' anti-globulin reaction; enzyme immunoassay with immune-dominant S-LPS; realtime polymerase chain reaction with primers based on genus target of BCSP31 protein gene. After eradication of sheep brucellosis in 2003, the percentage of nursery facility employees, that react positively to brucellosis, has decreased from 42.7% to 15.9-17.2% in 2005-2006. RT-PCR detected human infection during epizootics 5.8 times more effectively compared with EIA. The repetition of the brucellosis epizootics in 2007 and 2009 among large cattle and a 2-year yak had initiated a rise in infection rate among employees, that had not previously (2003-2006) reacted to brucellosis. Acute clinical forms of brucellosis were not detected in 2012-2013 and antibody titers in EIA in previously infected employees have decreased in the absence ofbrucellosis epizootics in the nursery. 30 employees, infected with brucellosis causative agent, were detected for the entire period of examination, among those 10 individuals had developed clinical forms of brucellosis (6--acute, 4--chronic). Epidemic control for 11 years, based on a complex of laboratory methods, allowed to register infection and outbreaks of brucellosis in the nursery employees during epizootics of 2003, 2007 and 2009. RT-PCR--effective method of detection of infection in humans during brucellosis periods in the nursery. EIA--sensitive method during chronic forms of brucellosis in the periods between and after

  2. The Significance of Witness Sensors for Mass Casualty Incidents and Epidemic Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chih-Long; Lin, Chih-Hao; Lin, Yan-Ren; Wen, Hsin-Yu; Wen, Jet-Chau

    2018-02-02

    Due to the increasing number of natural and man-made disasters, mass casualty incidents occur more often than ever before. As a result, health care providers need to adapt in order to cope with the overwhelming patient surge. To ensure quality and safety in health care, accurate information in pandemic disease control, death reduction, and health quality promotion should be highlighted. However, obtaining precise information in real time is an enormous challenge to all researchers of the field. In this paper, innovative strategies are presented to develop a sound information network using the concept of "witness sensors." To overcome the reliability and quality limitations of information obtained through social media, researchers must focus on developing solutions that secure the authenticity of social media messages, especially for matters related to health. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel concept based on the two elements of "witness" and "sensor." Witness sensors can be key players designated to minimize limitations to quality of information and to distinguish fact from fiction during critical events. In order to enhance health communication practices and deliver valid information to end users, the education and management of witness sensors should be further investigated, especially for implementation during mass casualty incidents and epidemic outbreaks. ©Chih-Long Pan, Chih-Hao Lin, Yan-Ren Lin, Hsin-Yu Wen, Jet-Chau Wen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 02.02.2018.

  3. [Epidemiological study of an epidemic outbreak of syphilis in Palmas de Gran Canaria].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilar, J; Dehesa, L; Gómez-Duaso, A J; Bastida, J; Rivero, P; Domínguez-Silva, J; Carretero, G

    2007-09-01

    In the last times there has been an increased incidence of syphilis especially among homosexual men. In our department we have diagnosed 11 cases of early syphilis in 6 months during 2006, thus confirming an epidemic outbreak. We carried out an epidemiological survey of patients with early syphilis. Syphilis was secondary in five cases and primary in six. All patients were men, 70 % homosexual with a mean age of 38.1 years. All patients had or have had other sexually transmitted diseases (STD), six were HIV positive. Ninety percent of the patients admitted having had promiscuous sexual contacts in the past year, and among these, 50 % never used protection, no protection was taken in cases of oral sex and only 25 % reported protection during anal sex. Currently, there is excessive slackening of protection practices as a method of STD prophylaxis, which leads to an increased number of cases. We consider relevant to insist in the use of barrier methods during oral sex as it is an important source of infection.

  4. Identifying more epidemic clones during a hospital outbreak of multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Domenech de Cellès

    Full Text Available Infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria are a major concern in hospitals. Current infection-control practices legitimately focus on hygiene and appropriate use of antibiotics. However, little is known about the intrinsic abilities of some bacterial strains to cause outbreaks. They can be measured at a population level by the pathogen's transmission rate, i.e. the rate at which the pathogen is transmitted from colonized hosts to susceptible hosts, or its reproduction number, counting the number of secondary cases per infected/colonized host. We collected data covering a 20-month surveillance period for carriage of multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (MDRAB in a surgery ward. All isolates were subjected to molecular fingerprinting, and a cluster analysis of profiles was performed to identify clonal groups. We then applied stochastic transmission models to infer transmission rates of MDRAB and each MDRAB clone. Molecular fingerprinting indicated that 3 clonal complexes spread in the ward. A first model, not accounting for different clones, quantified the level of in-ward cross-transmission, with an estimated transmission rate of 0.03/day (95% credible interval [0.012-0.049] and a single-admission reproduction number of 0.61 [0.30-1.02]. The second model, accounting for different clones, suggested an enhanced transmissibility of clone 3 (transmission rate 0.047/day [0.018-0.091], with a single-admission reproduction number of 0.81 [0.30-1.56]. Clones 1 and 2 had comparable transmission rates (respectively, 0.016 [0.001-0.045], 0.014 [0.001-0.045]. The method used is broadly applicable to other nosocomial pathogens, as long as surveillance data and genotyping information are available. Building on these results, more epidemic clones could be identified, and could lead to follow-up studies dissecting the functional basis for variation in transmissibility of MDRAB lineages.

  5. An epidemic outbreak of Vibrio Cholerae El Tor 01 serotype ogawa biotype in a Lalpur town, Jamnagar, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H D Shah

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: On December 19, 2010, 57 cases of gastroenteritis were reported in the community health center of Lalpur town. A rapid response team was sent to investigate the outbreak on December 21, 2010. Aim: To identify the source, to institute control and prevention measures. Materials and Methods: The outbreak was confirmed using the previous Integrated Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP data. Detailed history was taken, line listing of patients and house-to-house investigations were done. Environmental investigation and laboratory investigation of stool samples were also done. As the study was conducted during emergency response to the outbreak and was designed to provide information to orient the public health response, ethical approval was not required. Remedial measures were implemented. Results: Three hundred and thirty cases were reported during December 19, 2010 to January 2, 2011 in Lalpur town of Jamnagar district. Nineteen patients were found to be positive for Vibrio Cholerae 01 serotype ogawa biotype out of 117 stool samples. The mean age of patients was 24.23΁19.01 years. The outbreak had 1.88% attack rate with no mortality and 59.1% cases had to be admitted. Investigations revealed that the epidemic was waterborne. Ten leakages were found in the pipelines of the affected areas of Lalpur town near two riverbanks. Conclusion: Among identified gaps, delays in the initiation of the investigation of the epidemic and repairing of leakages were most important. In India, waterborne epidemics are usual occurrences during the year. In this scenario, the village health and sanitation committee and water board should follow guidelines, and monitoring of water sources, proper sewage disposal and sanitation measures should be undertaken.

  6. Ebola virus disease outbreak; the role of field epidemiology training programme in the fight against the epidemic, Liberia, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubogo, Mutaawe; Donewell, Bangure; Godbless, Lucas; Shabani, Sasita; Maeda, Justin; Temba, Herilinda; Malibiche, Theophil C; Berhanu, Naod

    2015-01-01

    The African Field Epidemiology Network (AFENET) is a public health network established in 2005 as a non-profit networking alliance of Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs (FELTPs) and Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETPs) in Africa. AFENET is dedicated to supporting Ministries of Health in Africa build strong, effective and sustainable programs and capacity to improve public health systems by partnering with global public health experts. The Network's goal is to strengthen field epidemiology and public health laboratory capacity to contribute effectively to addressing epidemics and other major public health problems in Africa. The goal for the establishment of FETP and FELTP was and still is to produce highly competent multi-disciplinary public health professionals who would assume influential posts in the public health structures and tackle emerging and re-emerging communicable and non-communicable diseases. AFENET currently networks 12 FELTPs and FETPs in sub-Saharan Africa with operations in 20 countries. During the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa, African Union Support for the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa (ASEOWA) supported FETP graduates from Uganda, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia and Tanzania for the investigation and control of the EVD outbreak in Liberia. The graduates were posted in different counties in Liberia where they lead teams of other experts conduct EVD outbreak investigations, Infection Control and Prevention trainings among health workers and communities, Strengthening integrated disease surveillance, developing Standard Operating Procedures for infection control and case notification in the Liberian setting as well as building capacity of local surveillance officers' conduct outbreak investigation and contact tracing. The team was also responsible for EVD data management at the different Counties in Liberia. The FETP graduates have been instrumental in the earlier successes registered in various counties in Liberia

  7. An outbreak of epidemic polyarthritis (Ross River virus disease) in the Northern Territory during the 1990-1991 wet season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, K S; Whelan, P I; Patel, M S; Currie, B

    1993-04-19

    To describe the epidemiology of a large outbreak of epidemic polyarthritis in the Northern Territory during the wet season of 1990-1991. Arbovirus cases notified to the Northern Territory Department of Health and Community Services by general practitioners and local laboratories between 1 July 1990 and 30 June 1991. Date and place of infection, age, sex and symptoms. Doctors in the Northern Territory notified 368 cases; another 14 were infected interstate. The epidemic started in September, peaked in January and tailed off in April. The highest attack rates occurred in the rural areas of Jabiru, Litchfield Shire and Katherine. Those most affected were 30-34 year olds. Children, the elderly and Aboriginal people were under-represented. Epidemic polyarthritis is a wet season problem in the Northern Territory, affecting the rural towns and districts more than the cities. Pre-planned mosquito control measures (effective water drainage and larval control) limited the extent of the 1990-1991 epidemic in Darwin City and Palmerston. The low attack rate in children reflects asymptomatic and less clinically severe infections. The under-representation of Aboriginal people may be the result of infection occurring earlier in life. A related cross-sectional seroprevalence survey has shown that rural Aboriginal people across all age groups have a significantly higher seropositive rate than urban non-Aboriginal residents.

  8. Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oviedo-Pastrana, Misael; Méndez, Nelson; Mattar, Salim; Arrieta, Germán; Gomezcaceres, Luty

    2017-01-01

    The first autochthonous Chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia was reported in September 2014. Three months later, every town in the Caribbean region was affected, including the bordering towns of Ovejas and Corozal, in the department of Sucre. The objective of the study was to analyze and compare the temporal dynamics of the outbreak of Chikungunya in two towns of the department of Sucre. Households with suspicious cases with clinical symptomatology for Chikungunya were enrolled. In each house an epidemiological questionnaire was applied to collect economic and social information and methods for vector control. The study analyzed data collected between 09/01/2014 and 01/31/2015; 458 families in Corozal and 516 families in Ovejas were identified with Chikungunya cases. Estimated attack rates were 10,621 cases and 1640 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in Ovejas and Corozal, respectively. The 75-day survival curve was 27.2% lower (0.632, CI = 0.614-0.651) in Ovejas than in Corozal (0.904, CI = 0.891-0.917). After 120 days, both curves showed a stable horizontal slope, close to a survival probability of 0.54, indicating the end of the epidemic period. The log-rank test ( X 2  = 94.6, 1fd, p -value = 0.000) showed the improved survival of Chikungunya in the town of Corozal. The relative risk between the two towns was 0.863 (CI = 0.809-0.921; p -value < 0.001). The dynamics of the temporal distribution of CHIKV could be influenced by socioeconomic and preventable risk factors. Poor socioeconomic conditions such as the lack and poor efficiency of water supply and waste collection services could be determining factors in the proliferation of CHIKV. The survival analysis proved to be a suitable method for studying the presentation of CHIKV and can be applied to other prevalent vector-borne diseases such as the ZIKA and Dengue.

  9. [Antibiotic resistance and molecular characterization of Vibrio cholera strains isolated from an outbreak of cholera epidemic in Jiangsu province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chen; Zhang, Xuefeng; Bao, Changjun; Zhu, Yefei; Zhuang, Ling; Tan, Zhongming; Qian, Huimin; Tang, Fenyang

    2015-02-01

    To assess the antibiotic resistance and molecular characterization of cholera strains and to provide basis for clinical treatment and prevention of cholera. 4 stains isolated from an outbreak of cholera epidemic in Huai'an City in Jiangsu province in September 2010 were characterized using antibiotic susceptibility, biotype analysis, virluence genes detection, ctxB gene sequencing, and PFGE analysis. The 4 strains were all resistant to sulphamethoxazole/trimethoprim, erythromycin, streptomycin. High drug susceptibility of the samples was found to 6 kinds of antibiotics such as amikacin, norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, chloramphenicol, ampicillin. The isolates expressed phenotypic traits of both serogroup O1 ogawa and El Tor and carried 9 kinds of virulence genes, ctxA, ace, zot, toxR, tcpI, ompU, rtxC, tcpA, and hlyA gene. They were also identified as harboring the classical ctxB genotype based on amino acid residue substitutions. The PFGE profiles of NotI showed a single banding pattern, while SfiI's was 2 banding patterns. The bacterium type of Vibrio cholerae causing the epidemic outbreak of cholera belonged to the atypical EL Tor variant which was also identified as toxicogenic strain. The mapping of the strains prompted that there should be the common contamination source. Drug sensitivity test can guide the clinical drug use, in order to reduce the emergence of resistant strains.

  10. Outbreak of a cluster with epidemic behavior due to Serratia marcescens after colistin administration in a hospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkier, Andrea Karina; Rodríguez, María Cecilia; Togneri, Ana; Brengi, Silvina; Osuna, Carolina; Pichel, Mariana; Cassini, Marcelo H; Centrón, Daniela

    2013-07-01

    Serratia marcescens causes health care-associated infections with important morbidity and mortality. Particularly, outbreaks produced by multidrug-resistant isolates of this species, which is already naturally resistant to several antibiotics, including colistin, are usually described with high rates of fatal outcomes throughout the world. Thus, it is important to survey factors associated with increasing frequency and/or emergence of multidrug-resistant S. marcescens nosocomial infections. We report the investigation and control of an outbreak with 40% mortality due to multidrug-resistant S. marcescens infections that happened from November 2007 to April 2008 after treatment with colistin for Acinetobacter baumannii meningitis was started at hospital H1 in 2005. Since that year, the epidemiological pattern of frequently recovered species has changed, with an increase of S. marcescens and Proteus mirabilis infections in 2006 in concordance with a significant decrease of the numbers of P. aeruginosa and A. baumannii isolates. A single pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) cluster of S. marcescens isolates was identified during the outbreak. When this cluster was compared with S. marcescens strains (n = 21) from 10 other hospitals (1997 to 2010), it was also identified in both sporadic and outbreak isolates circulating in 4 hospitals in Argentina. In132::ISCR1::blaCTX-M-2 was associated with the multidrug-resistant cluster with epidemic behavior when isolated from outbreaks. Standard infection control interventions interrupted transmission of this cluster even when treatment with colistin continued in several wards of hospital H1 until now. Optimizing use of colistin should be achieved simultaneously with improved infection control to prevent the emergence of species naturally resistant to colistin, such as S. marcescens and P. mirabilis.

  11. Using multitype branching processes to quantify statistics of disease outbreaks in zoonotic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Sarabjeet; Schneider, David J.; Myers, Christopher R.

    2014-03-01

    Branching processes have served as a model for chemical reactions, biological growth processes, and contagion (of disease, information, or fads). Through this connection, these seemingly different physical processes share some common universalities that can be elucidated by analyzing the underlying branching process. In this work we focus on coupled branching processes as a model of infectious diseases spreading from one population to another. An exceedingly important example of such coupled outbreaks are zoonotic infections that spill over from animal populations to humans. We derive several statistical quantities characterizing the first spillover event from animals to humans, including the probability of spillover, the first passage time distribution for human infection, and disease prevalence in the animal population at spillover. Large stochastic fluctuations in those quantities can make inference of the state of the system at the time of spillover difficult. Focusing on outbreaks in the human population, we then characterize the critical threshold for a large outbreak, the distribution of outbreak sizes, and associated scaling laws. These all show a strong dependence on the basic reproduction number in the animal population and indicate the existence of a novel multicritical point with altered scaling behavior. The coupling of animal and human infection dynamics has crucial implications, most importantly allowing for the possibility of large human outbreaks even when human-to-human transmission is subcritical.

  12. Using multitype branching processes to quantify statistics of disease outbreaks in zoonotic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Sarabjeet; Schneider, David J; Myers, Christopher R

    2014-03-01

    Branching processes have served as a model for chemical reactions, biological growth processes, and contagion (of disease, information, or fads). Through this connection, these seemingly different physical processes share some common universalities that can be elucidated by analyzing the underlying branching process. In this work we focus on coupled branching processes as a model of infectious diseases spreading from one population to another. An exceedingly important example of such coupled outbreaks are zoonotic infections that spill over from animal populations to humans. We derive several statistical quantities characterizing the first spillover event from animals to humans, including the probability of spillover, the first passage time distribution for human infection, and disease prevalence in the animal population at spillover. Large stochastic fluctuations in those quantities can make inference of the state of the system at the time of spillover difficult. Focusing on outbreaks in the human population, we then characterize the critical threshold for a large outbreak, the distribution of outbreak sizes, and associated scaling laws. These all show a strong dependence on the basic reproduction number in the animal population and indicate the existence of a novel multicritical point with altered scaling behavior. The coupling of animal and human infection dynamics has crucial implications, most importantly allowing for the possibility of large human outbreaks even when human-to-human transmission is subcritical.

  13. THE "LEGAL EPIDEMIOLOGY" OF THE TEEN SEXTING EPIDEMIC: HOW THE MEDIA INFLUENCED A LEGISLATIVE OUTBREAK

    OpenAIRE

    Kimberlianne Podlas

    2012-01-01

    This article considers the media‟s impact on the “legal epidemiology” of the teen sexting epidemic.  Here, “teen sexting epidemic” refers to two things: (1) the belief that sext messaging by teens is rampant and spreading, hence, is an epidemic; and (2) the process by which a piece of information spreads like a virus, came to be understood as a pathogen infecting teens, resulted in a rash of child pornography prosecutions, and erupted into an o...

  14. What Internet services would patients like from hospitals during an epidemic? Lessons from the SARS outbreak in Toronto.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizo, Carlos A; Lupea, Doina; Baybourdy, Homayoun; Anderson, Matthew; Closson, Tom; Jadad, Alejandro R

    2005-08-03

    International health organizations and officials are bracing for a pandemic. Although the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Toronto did not reach such a level, it created a unique opportunity to identify the optimal use of the Internet to promote communication with the public and to preserve health services during an epidemic. The aim of the study was to explore patients' attitudes regarding the health services that might be provided through the Internet to supplement those traditionally available in the event of a future mass emergency situation. We conducted "mask-to-mask" surveys of patients at three major teaching hospitals in Toronto during the second outbreak of SARS. Patients were surveyed at the hospital entrances and selected clinics. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used for the analysis. In total, 1019 of 1130 patients responded to the survey (90% overall response rate). With respect to Internet use, 70% (711/1019) used the Internet by themselves and 57% (578/1019) with the help of a friend or family member. Of the Internet users, 68% (485/711) had already searched the World Wide Web for health information, and 75% (533/711) were interested in communicating with health professionals using the Internet as part of their ongoing care. Internet users expressed interest in using the Web for the following reasons: to learn about their health condition through patient education materials (84%), to obtain information about the status of their clinic appointments (83%), to send feedback to the hospital about how to improve its services (77%), to access screening tools to help determine if they were potentially affected by the infectious agent responsible for the outbreak (77%), to renew prescriptions (75%), to consult with their health professional about nonurgent matters (75%), and to access laboratory test results (75%). Regression results showed that younger age, higher education, and English as a first

  15. Classification of a hypervirulent Aeromonas hydrophila pathotype responsible for epidemic outbreaks in warm-water fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineages of hypervirulent Aeromonas hydrophila (vAh) are the cause of persistent outbreaks of motile Aeromonas septicemia in warm-water fishes worldwide. Over the last decade, this virulent lineage of A. hydrophila has resulted in annual losses of millions of tons of farmed carp and catfish in the P...

  16. The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N7) virus epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003 - lessons learned from the first five outbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Fabri, T.; Vries, T.S.; Wit, de J.J.; Pijpers, A.; Koch, G.

    2004-01-01

    Clinical signs and gross lesions observed in poultry submitted for postmortem examination (PME) from the first five infected poultry flocks preceding the detection of the primary outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of subtype H7N7 during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are

  17. Epidemic investigation of the jaundice outbreak in Girdharnagar, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chauhan Naresh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Since 1976, seven outbreaks of hepatitis E occurred in Ahmedabad. Clusters of jaundice cases were reported on June 19, 2008, by a civic center, Girdharnagar ward, Ahmedabad. Objectives: The objectives were as follows: (1 to identify the etiological agent, source of outbreak, and mode of transmission; (2 to propose a control measure based on the outbreak investigation. Materials and Methods: We defined a case as an acute illness with (a a discrete onset of symptoms and (b jaundice or elevated serum aminotransferase levels, from March to September 2008 in the households of the Girdharnagar ward. We collected data through a door-to-door survey and hospital records. We described the outbreak in terms of time, place, and person. We collected laboratory investigation reports of case patients admitted to the civil hospital. To test our hypothesis we conducted a retrospective cohort study to find out the relative risk for hepatitis. We conducted environment investigation to find out the source of contamination of water supply. Results: A total 233 case patients of hepatitis were identified with the attack rate of 10.9/1000 population. Cases were reported in all the age groups with a higher attack rate in the age group of 20-29 years (18.5/1000. Out of 17 case patients, 16 were positive for the hepatitis E IgM antibody. The attack rate was two times more among those who were exposed to the leaking pipeline than the non-exposed (RR=2.3, 95% CI 1.76, 2.98. Environmental investigation also confirmed the sewage contamination of drinking water in the distribution system. Conclusion: The outbreak was due to hepatitis E virus. We recommended a temporary alternative water supply, repair of the leakages, and water quality surveillance.

  18. [Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus field strains in central China during 2010-2012 outbreaks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Feng-Mei; Huo, Jin-Yao; Zhao, Jun; Chang, Hong-Tao; Wang, Xiao-Meng; Chen, Lu; Wang, Chuan-Qing

    2013-03-01

    Since late 2010, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has been re-emerging in central China. To explore the possible reason of the PEDV outbreaks, twelve PEDV field strains were isolated from different swine breeding farms in central China during 2010-2012, and molecular diversity, phylogenetic relationships of these strains with other PEDV reference strains were investigated. Sequence analysis of S, M and ORE3 genes revealed that the central China PEDV isolates had several specific nucleotides and amino acids which were different from PEDV reference strains. In addition, the entire S genes of eleven central China PEDV isolates were found to be nine nucleotides longer in length than CV777 and large number of amino acid variations was accumulated in the N-terminal region of S gene. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the central China PEDV isolates had close relationship with Korea strains (2007-2009), Thailand strains (2007-2008), Vietnam strains (2009-2010), Japan strains (2010), and other prevailing strains from other parts of China (2010-2012). However, they differed genetically from European strains (CV777, Brl/87), China strains (2003-2007) and the vaccine strains (CV777) used in China. These results imply that a rapid variation and evolution of central China PEDV strains has occurred in recent years, and a more efficient vaccine strain should be selected to prevent and control outbreaks of PEDV in China.

  19. Factors influencing psychological distress during a disease epidemic: Data from Australia's first outbreak of equine influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevens Garry J

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2007 Australia experienced its first outbreak of highly infectious equine influenza. Government disease control measures were put in place to control, contain, and eradicate the disease; these measures included movement restrictions and quarantining of properties. This study was conducted to assess the psycho-social impacts of this disease, and this paper reports the prevalence of, and factors influencing, psychological distress during this outbreak. Methods Data were collected using an online survey, with a link directed to the affected population via a number of industry groups. Psychological distress, as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, was the main outcome measure. Results In total, 2760 people participated in this study. Extremely high levels of non-specific psychological distress were reported by respondents in this study, with 34% reporting high psychological distress (K10 > 22, compared to levels of around 12% in the Australian general population. Analysis, using backward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis, revealed that those living in high risk infection (red zones (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.57–2.55; p Conclusion Although, methodologically, this study had good internal validity, it has limited generalisability because it was not possible to identify, bound, or sample the target population accurately. However, this study is the first to collect psychological distress data from an affected population during such a disease outbreak and has potential to inform those involved in assessing the potential psychological impacts of human infectious diseases, such as pandemic influenza.

  20. Views of internists towards uses of PGD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Wendy; Marder, Karen; Shanmugham, Anita; Chin, Lisa J.; Stark, Meredith; Leu, Cheng-Shiun; Appelbaum, Paul S.

    2012-01-01

    Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) is increasingly available, but how physicians view it is unclear. Internists are gatekeepers and sources of information, often treating disorders for which PGD is possible. This quantitative study surveyed 220 US internists, who were found to be divided. Many would recommend PGD for cystic fibrosis (CF; 33.7%), breast cancer (BRCA; 23.4%), familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP; 20.6%) and familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (19.9%), but few for social sex selection (5.2%); however, in each case, >50% were unsure. Of those surveyed, 4.9% have suggested PGD to patients. Only 7.1% felt qualified to answer patient questions about it. Internists who would refer for PGD had completed medical training less recently and, for CF, were more likely to have privately insured patients (P PGD differently, partly reflecting varying ages of onset and disease treatability. These data have critical implications for training, research and practice. PMID:23276655

  1. Genomic epidemiology of the haitian cholera outbreak: a single introduction followed by rapid, extensive, and continued spread characterized the onset of the epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eppinger, Mark; Pearson, Talima; Koenig, Sara S. K.

    2014-01-01

    In this genomic epidemiology study, we have applied high-resolution whole-genome-based sequence typing methodologies on a comprehensive set of genome sequences that have become available in the aftermath of the Haitian cholera epidemic. These sequence resources enabled us to reassess the degree...... of genomic heterogeneity within the Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype and to refine boundaries and evolutionary relationships. The established phylogenomic framework showed how outbreak isolates fit into the global phylogeographic patterns compared to a comprehensive globally and temporally diverse strain...... collection and provides strong molecular evidence that points to a nonindigenous source of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak and refines epidemiological standards used in outbreak investigations for outbreak inclusion/exclusion following the concept of genomic epidemiology. The generated phylogenomic data...

  2. [Epidemics and pandemics in general practice. What can we learn from the swine flu (H1N1) and EHEC outbreak?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisele, M; Hansen, H; Wagner, H-O; von Leitner, E; Pohontsch, N; Scherer, M

    2014-06-01

    As primary care givers with a coordinating function, general practitioners (GP) play a key role in dealing with epidemics and pandemics. As of yet, there are no studies in Germany describing the difficulties experienced by GPs in patient care during epidemics/pandemics. This study aimed at identifying the problem areas in GPs' patient care during the H1N1 and EHEC (enterohemorrhagic strain of Escherichia coli) outbreaks. With this information, recommendations for guaranteeing proper patient care during future epidemics/pandemics can be derived. In all, 12 qualitative, semi-structured, open guideline interviews with GPs in Hamburg and Lübeck were conducted, transcribed, and evaluated with qualitative content analysis. Five areas in ambulatory patient care were identified in which changes are needed from the primary care perspective: provision of information for GPs, workload, financing of epidemic-related measures, organization of the practices, care of those taken ill. The workload of GPs in particular can and should be reduced through successful, centralized information distribution during epidemics/pandemics. The GP's function as a coordinator should be supported and consolidated, in order to relieve the in-patient sector in cases of an epidemic/pandemic. Secured financing of epidemic-associated measures can help ensure patient care.

  3. Impact of infectious disease epidemics on tuberculosis diagnostic, management, and prevention services: experiences and lessons from the 2014–2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashid Ansumana

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization (WHO Global Tuberculosis Report 2015 states that 28% of the world's 9.6 million new tuberculosis (TB cases are in the WHO Africa Region. The Mano River Union (MRU countries of West Africa–Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia–have made incremental sustained investments into TB control programmes over the past two decades. The devastating Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak of 2014–2015 in West Africa impacted significantly on all sectors of the healthcare systems in the MRU countries, including the TB prevention and control programmes. The EVD outbreak also had an adverse impact on the healthcare workforce and healthcare service delivery. At the height of the EVD outbreak, numerous staff members in all MRU countries contracted EBV at the Ebola treatment units and died. Many healthcare workers were also infected in healthcare facilities that were not Ebola treatment units but were national hospitals and peripheral health units that were unprepared for receiving patients with EVD. In all three MRU countries, the disruption to TB services due to the EVD epidemic will no doubt have increased Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission, TB morbidity and mortality, and decreased patient adherence to TB treatment, and the likely impact will not be known for several years to come. In this viewpoint, the impact that the EVD outbreak had on TB diagnostic, management, and prevention services is described. Vaccination against TB with BCG in children under 5 years of age was affected adversely by the EVD epidemic. The EVD outbreak was a result of global failure and represents yet another ‘wake-up call’ to the international community, and particularly to African governments, to reach a consensus on new ways of thinking at the national, regional, and global levels for building healthcare systems that can sustain their function during outbreaks. This is necessary so that other disease control programmes (like those for TB, malaria

  4. Factors influencing psychological distress during a disease epidemic: data from Australia's first outbreak of equine influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Melanie R; Agho, Kingsley E; Stevens, Garry J; Raphael, Beverley

    2008-10-03

    In 2007 Australia experienced its first outbreak of highly infectious equine influenza. Government disease control measures were put in place to control, contain, and eradicate the disease; these measures included movement restrictions and quarantining of properties. This study was conducted to assess the psycho-social impacts of this disease, and this paper reports the prevalence of, and factors influencing, psychological distress during this outbreak. Data were collected using an online survey, with a link directed to the affected population via a number of industry groups. Psychological distress, as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, was the main outcome measure. In total, 2760 people participated in this study. Extremely high levels of non-specific psychological distress were reported by respondents in this study, with 34% reporting high psychological distress (K10 > 22), compared to levels of around 12% in the Australian general population. Analysis, using backward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis, revealed that those living in high risk infection (red) zones (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.57-2.55; p risk of high psychological distress than those living in uninfected (white zones). Although prevalence of high psychological distress was greater in infected EI zones and States, elevated levels of psychological distress were experienced in horse-owners nationally. Statistical analysis indicated that certain groups were more vulnerable to high psychological distress; specifically younger people, and those with lower levels of formal educational qualifications. Respondents whose principal source of income was from horse-related industry were more than twice as likely to have high psychological distress than those whose primary source of income was not linked to horse-related industry (OR = 2.23; 95% CI: 1.82-2.73; p assessing the potential psychological impacts of human infectious diseases, such as pandemic influenza.

  5. Epidemic Outbreak Surveillance (EOS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Scofield, Thomas C

    2005-01-01

    ...) to provide the administrative, management, logistical, and programmatic services in collaboration with HQ, USAF/SGR in accordance with the statement of work and with tasks developed by the research...

  6. Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuiyuan Guo

    Full Text Available We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0 as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31-50%, 45% (42-48%, and 51% (44-56% among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.

  7. Data-Driven Risk Assessment from Small Scale Epidemics: Estimation and Model Choice for Spatio-Temporal Data with Application to a Classical Swine Fever Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamado, Kokouvi; Marion, Glenn; Porphyre, Thibaud

    2017-01-01

    Livestock epidemics have the potential to give rise to significant economic, welfare, and social costs. Incursions of emerging and re-emerging pathogens may lead to small and repeated outbreaks. Analysis of the resulting data is statistically challenging but can inform disease preparedness reducing potential future losses. We present a framework for spatial risk assessment of disease incursions based on data from small localized historic outbreaks. We focus on between-farm spread of livestock pathogens and illustrate our methods by application to data on the small outbreak of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) that occurred in 2000 in East Anglia, UK. We apply models based on continuous time semi-Markov processes, using data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques within a Bayesian framework to infer disease dynamics and detection from incompletely observed outbreaks. The spatial transmission kernel describing pathogen spread between farms, and the distribution of times between infection and detection, is estimated alongside unobserved exposure times. Our results demonstrate inference is reliable even for relatively small outbreaks when the data-generating model is known. However, associated risk assessments depend strongly on the form of the fitted transmission kernel. Therefore, for real applications, methods are needed to select the most appropriate model in light of the data. We assess standard Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) model selection tools and recently introduced latent residual methods of model assessment, in selecting the functional form of the spatial transmission kernel. These methods are applied to the CSF data, and tested in simulated scenarios which represent field data, but assume the data generation mechanism is known. Analysis of simulated scenarios shows that latent residual methods enable reliable selection of the transmission kernel even for small outbreaks whereas the DIC is less reliable. Moreover, compared with DIC, model choice

  8. Review of a major epidemic of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: The costs of screening and consequences of outbreak management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. van der Zee (Anneke); W. Hendriks; L.D. Roorda (Lieuwe); J.M. Ossewaarde (Jacobus); J. Buitenwerf (Johannes)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractBackground: A major outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) occurred in locations C and Z of our hospital and lasted for several years. It affected 1,230 patients and 153 personnel. Methods: Outbreak management was installed according to the Dutch "search and

  9. Discrimination and abuse experienced by general internists in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, D J; Griffith, L E; Cohen, M; Guyatt, G H; O'Brien, B

    1995-10-01

    To identify the frequency of psychological and emotional abuse, gender discrimination, verbal sexual harassment, physical sexual harassment, physical assault, and homophobia experienced by general internists. Cross-sectional survey. Canadian general internal medicine practices. The overall response rate was 70.6% (984/1,393); the 501 respondents who classified themselves as general internists were studied. Three-fourths of the internists experienced psychological and emotional abuse at the hands of patients, and 38% of the women and 26% of the men experienced physical assault by patients. The majority of the female internists experienced gender discrimination by patients (67%) and by physician peers (56%). Forty-five percent of the women experienced verbal sexual harassment by patients, and 22% experienced physical sexual harassment by patients. The male internists experienced verbal sexual harassment from nurses slightly more often than the female internists did (19% vs 13%, p > 0.05). Verbal sexual harassment by male colleagues was reported by 35% of the female internists, and physical sexual harassment was reported by 11%. Approximately 40% of general internists reported homophobic remarks by both health care team members and patients. Abuse, discrimination, and homophobia are prevalent in the internal medicine workplace. A direct, progressive, multidisciplinary approach is necessary to label and address these problems.

  10. How infectious disease outbreaks affect community-based primary care physicians: comparing the SARS and H1N1 epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaakkimainen, R Liisa; Bondy, Susan J; Parkovnick, Meredith; Barnsley, Jan

    2014-10-01

    To compare how the infectious disease outbreaks H1N1 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) affected community-based GPs and FPs. A mailed survey sent after the H1N1 outbreak compared with the results of similar survey completed after the SARS outbreak. Greater Toronto area in Ontario. A total of 183 randomly selected GPs and FPs who provided office-based care. The perceptions of GPs and FPs on how serious infectious disease outbreaks affected their clinical work and personal lives; their preparedness for a serious infectious disease outbreak; and the types of information they want to receive and the sources they wanted to receive information from during a serious infectious disease outbreak. The responses from this survey were compared with the responses of GPs and FPs in the greater Toronto area who completed a similar survey in 2003 after the SARS outbreak. After the H1N1 outbreak, GPs and FPs still had substantial concerns about the effects of serious infectious disease outbreaks on the health of their family members. Physicians made changes to various office practices in order to manage and deal with patients with serious infectious diseases. They expressed concerns about the effects of an infectious disease on the provision of health care services. Also, physicians wanted to quickly receive accurate information from the provincial government and their medical associations. Serious community-based infectious diseases are a personal concern for GPs and FPs, and have considerable effects on their clinical practice. Further work examining the timely flow of relevant information through different health care sectors and government agencies still needs to be undertaken. Copyright© the College of Family Physicians of Canada.

  11. On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1 influenza outbreak in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fisman David N

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1 poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices. Findings The Richards model and its variants are used to fit the cumulative epidemic curve for laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1 infections in Canada, made available by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC. The model is used to obtain estimates for turning points in the initial outbreak, the basic reproductive number (R0, and for expected final outbreak size in the absence of interventions. Confirmed case data were used to construct a best-fit 2-phase model with three turning points. R0 was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.47 for the first phase (April 1 to May 4 and 1.35 (95% CI 1.16-1.54 for the second phase (May 4 to June 19. Hospitalization data were also used to fit a 1-phase model with R0 = 1.35 (1.20-1.49 and a single turning point of June 11. Conclusions Application of the Richards model to Canadian pH1N1 data shows that detection of turning points is affected by the quality of data available at the time of data usage. Using a Richards model, robust estimates of R0 were obtained approximately one month after the initial outbreak in the case of 2009 A (H1N1 in Canada.

  12. Genomic epidemiology of the Haitian cholera outbreak: a single introduction followed by rapid, extensive, and continued spread characterized the onset of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eppinger, Mark; Pearson, Talima; Koenig, Sara S K; Pearson, Ofori; Hicks, Nathan; Agrawal, Sonia; Sanjar, Fatemeh; Galens, Kevin; Daugherty, Sean; Crabtree, Jonathan; Hendriksen, Rene S; Price, Lance B; Upadhyay, Bishnu P; Shakya, Geeta; Fraser, Claire M; Ravel, Jacques; Keim, Paul S

    2014-11-04

    For centuries, cholera has been one of the most feared diseases. The causative agent Vibrio cholerae is a waterborne Gram-negative enteric pathogen eliciting a severe watery diarrheal disease. In October 2010, the seventh pandemic reached Haiti, a country that had not experienced cholera for more than a century. By using whole-genome sequence typing and mapping strategies of 116 serotype O1 strains from global sources, including 44 Haitian genomes, we present a detailed reconstructed evolutionary history of the seventh pandemic with a focus on the Haitian outbreak. We catalogued subtle genomic alterations at the nucleotide level in the genome core and architectural rearrangements from whole-genome map comparisons. Isolates closely related to the Haitian isolates caused several recent outbreaks in southern Asia. This study provides evidence for a single-source introduction of cholera from Nepal into Haiti followed by rapid, extensive, and continued clonal expansion. The phylogeographic patterns in both southern Asia and Haiti argue for the rapid dissemination of V. cholerae across the landscape necessitating real-time surveillance efforts to complement the whole-genome epidemiological analysis. As eradication efforts move forward, phylogeographic knowledge will be important for identifying persistent sources and monitoring success at regional levels. The results of molecular and epidemiological analyses of this outbreak suggest that an indigenous Haitian source of V. cholerae is unlikely and that an indigenous source has not contributed to the genomic evolution of this clade. In this genomic epidemiology study, we have applied high-resolution whole-genome-based sequence typing methodologies on a comprehensive set of genome sequences that have become available in the aftermath of the Haitian cholera epidemic. These sequence resources enabled us to reassess the degree of genomic heterogeneity within the Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype and to refine boundaries and

  13. Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah P. Shutt

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.

  14. Outbreak of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium in a haematology unit: risk factor assessment and successful control of the epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmers, Gert Jan; van der Zwet, Wil C.; Simoons-Smit, Ina M.; Savelkoul, Paul H. M.; Meester, Helena H. M.; Vandenbroucke-Grauls, Christina M. J. E.; Huijgens, Peter C.

    2002-01-01

    We describe an outbreak of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VRE) on the haematology ward of a Dutch university hospital. After the occurrence of three consecutive cases of bacteraemia with VRE, strains were genotyped and found to be identical. During the next 4 months an intensive

  15. Measles Epidemics Among Children in Vietnam: Genomic Characterization of Virus Responsible for Measles Outbreak in Ho Chi Minh City, 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van H. Pham

    2014-12-01

    Conclusions: Measles viruses responsible for outbreaks in Southern Vietnam belonged to a genotype D8 variant group which had unique amino acid sequences in the N gene. Our report provides important genomic information about the virus for measles elimination in Southeast Asia.

  16. Quantifying the effect of media limitations on outbreak data in a global online web-crawling epidemic intelligence system, 2008-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales, David; Zelenev, Alexei; Brownstein, John S

    2013-11-08

    This is the first study quantitatively evaluating the effect that media-related limitations have on data from an automated epidemic intelligence system. We modeled time series of HealthMap's two main data feeds, Google News and Moreover, to test for evidence of two potential limitations: first, human resources constraints, and second, high-profile outbreaks "crowding out" coverage of other infectious diseases. Google News events declined by 58.3%, 65.9%, and 14.7% on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, respectively, relative to other weekdays. Events were reduced by 27.4% during Christmas/New Years weeks and 33.6% lower during American Thanksgiving week than during an average week for Google News. Moreover data yielded similar results with the addition of Memorial Day (US) being associated with a 36.2% reduction in events. Other holiday effects were not statistically significant. We found evidence for a crowd out phenomenon for influenza/H1N1, where a 50% increase in influenza events corresponded with a 4% decline in other disease events for Google News only. Other prominent diseases in this database - avian influenza (H5N1), cholera, or foodborne illness - were not associated with a crowd out phenomenon. These results provide quantitative evidence for the limited impact of editorial biases on HealthMap's web-crawling epidemic intelligence.

  17. An epidemiological investigation of the early phase of the porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) outbreak in Canadian swine herds in 2014: A case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perri, Amanda M; Poljak, Zvonimir; Dewey, Cate; Harding, John C S; O'Sullivan, Terri L

    2018-02-01

    The first case of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) in Canada was diagnosed in January 2014 in Ontario, approximately 9 months after PED emerged in the United States. An early investigation of the Canadian outbreak suspected that the probable source of the virus was contaminated feed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the role of feed and other possible factors in the early phase of the PED outbreak in Canadian swine herds. The study period of interest for this case-control study was January 22nd to March 1st, 2014. A case herd was defined as a swine herd with a confirmed positive laboratory diagnostic test (RT-PCR) results for PED virus, along with pigs exhibiting typical clinical signs at the herd level during the study period. A questionnaire was administered to participating producers from the 22 Canadian swine herds enrolled (n = 9 case and n = 13 control herds). Case herd producers were asked to provide information from the initial day of onset of clinical signs and 30 days prior to that day. Control herds were matched to a case herd on the basis of province, herd type and approximate size. The period of interest for a control herd was matched to the initial day of clinical signs of PED for the case herd, along with the 30 days prior to this day. The questionnaire questions focused on herd demographics, biosecurity protocols, live animal movements onto and off sites, deadstock movements, feed and people movements for both the case and control herds. The questionnaire for control herds were based on their matched case's period of interest, and together with case herds formed a matched stratum. Multivariable exact conditional logistic regression and mixed multivariable logistic regression models, with the matched stratum as a random effect, were used to assess the association between various risk factors and the odds of PED introduction into a herd. After adjusting for biosecurity practices, the odds of a PED occurrence was 38.1 (95% CI: 2

  18. Enfermedad diarreica por rotavirus en brotes epidémicos Diarrheal disease caused by rotavirus in epidemic outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Reyna-Figueroa

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Determinar el perfil epidemiológico de los brotes de enfermedad diarreica aguda por rotavirus (RV ocurridos en pacientes pediátricos, mediante una revisión crítica de la literatura publicada entre 2000 y 2010. MÉTODOS: Se realizó una búsqueda de artículos publicados desde enero de 2000 hasta abril de 2010, recogidos por las bases de datos Artemisa, EBSCO, Embase, Imbiomed, Lilacs, Ovid, PubMed y Science Direct. En los estudios que cumplieron con los criterios de inclusión, se identificaron posibles factores de confusión y se atribuyeron riesgos de sesgo con base en el número de ítems considerados inadecuados en cada caso. Se describieron las características epidemiológicas y microbiológicas de los brotes. RESULTADOS: Solo 14 (10,8% de los 129 títulos identificados formaron parte de la muestra, los cuales sumaron 91 092 casos de diarrea aguda notificados. En 5 250 de estos casos se realizó la búsqueda de RV, la cual arrojó 1 711 (32,5% aislamientos positivos. Se observó que el RV del grupo A fue el agente causal en 100% de los brotes, mientras que el genotipo G9 fue documentado en 50% de los artículos. CONCLUSIONES: El RV, principalmente el serotipo G9, fue uno de los principales agentes responsables de los brotes de EDA en la última década. Un cuidadoso estudio de brote puede aportar información valiosa para el control y la prevención de la enfermedad por RV.OBJECTIVE: Determine the epidemiological profile of outbreaks of acute diarrheal disease caused by rotavirus (RV occurring in pediatric patients, based on a critical review of the literature published between 2000 and 2010. METHODS: A search was carried out for articles published from January 2000 to April 2010, collected by the Artemisa, EBSCO, Embase, Imbiomed, Lilacs, Ovid, PubMed, and Science Direct databases. In the studies that met the inclusion criteria, possible confounding factors were identified and risks of bias were attributed based on the

  19. Theorizing "Big Events" as a potential risk environment for drug use, drug-related harm and HIV epidemic outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Samuel R; Rossi, Diana; Braine, Naomi

    2009-05-01

    Political-economic transitions in the Soviet Union, Indonesia, and China, but not the Philippines, were followed by HIV epidemics among drug users. Wars also may sometimes increase HIV risk. Based on similarities in some of the causal pathways through which wars and transitions can affect HIV risk, we use the term "Big Events" to include both. We first critique several prior epidemiological models of Big Events as inadequately incorporating social agency and as somewhat imprecise and over-generalizing in their sociology. We then suggest a model using the following concepts: first, event-specific HIV transmission probabilities are functions of (a) the probability that partners are infection-discordant; (b) the infection-susceptibility of the uninfected partner; (c) the infectivity of the infected--as well as (d) the behaviours engaged in. These probabilities depend on the distributions of HIV and other variables in populations. Sexual or injection events incorporate risk behaviours and are embedded in sexual and injection partnership patterns and community networks, which in turn are shaped by the content of normative regulation in communities. Wars and transitions can change socio-economic variables that can sometimes precipitate increases in the numbers of people who engage in high-risk drug and sexual networks and behaviours and in the riskiness of what they do. These variables that Big Events affect may include population displacement; economic difficulties and policies; police corruption, repressiveness, and failure to preserve order; health services; migration; social movements; gender roles; and inter-communal violence--which, in turn, affect normative regulation, youth alienation, networks and behaviours. As part of these pathways, autonomous action by neighbourhood residents, teenagers, drug users and sex workers to maintain their economic welfare, health or happiness may affect many of these variables or otherwise mediate whether HIV epidemics follow

  20. Trichomonosis outbreak in a flock of canaries (Serinus canaria f. domestica) caused by a finch epidemic strain of Trichomonas gallinae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadravec, Marko; Slavec, Brigita; Krapež, Uroš; Gombač, Mitja; Švara, Tanja; Poljšak-Prijatelj, Mateja; Gruntar, Igor; Račnik, Joško

    2017-05-30

    In the present paper, an outbreak of trichomonosis in a flock of 15 breeding pairs of canaries is described. Trichomonosis was diagnosed on characteristic clinical signs, microscopic examination of crop/esophageal swabs, gross pathology and histopathology. Trichomonads were successfully grown in culture media and were characterized by multi-locus sequence typing. The three genomic loci ITS1-5.8S-ITS2, 18S rRNA and Fe-hydrogenase were analyzed. Molecular characterization confirmed the finch trichomonosis strain, identical to the strain that caused emerging disease in free-living passerine birds in Europe. Flock treatment with metronidazole (200mg/L) in drinking water for 5days was partially effective. After individual treatment with oral application of metronidazole (20mg/kg SID) for 5days no further clinical signs were observed in the flock over next 30 months. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Competency in menopause management: whither goest the internist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santen, Richard J; Stuenkel, Cynthia A; Burger, Henry G; Manson, Joann E

    2014-04-01

    After publication of the Women's Health Initiative study in 2002, use of menopausal hormone therapy (HT) has declined by nearly 80% worldwide and internists now play only a limited role in menopause management. Over the past decade, new data have increased our knowledge of the multiple effects and mechanisms of HT. Existing literature was reviewed. A consensus has emerged that the benefits of HT outweigh the risks for the relief of symptoms in women who have recently undergone menopause and are not at excess risk of breast cancer and cardiovascular disease. Non-hormonal agents, selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), and tibolone are also useful in management. Factors entering into the decision-making process regarding menopause management are increasingly complex and involve consideration of effects on multiple systems and potential disease-related events. These considerations suggest that internists trained to evaluate and integrate factors influencing multiple organ systems should re-engage in menopause management. Most internists currently lack the core competencies and experience necessary to address menopausal issues and meet the needs of women who have completed their reproductive years. We believe that this situation is detrimental to women's health, leads to fragmented care, and should change. We propose that the multidimensional expertise that characterizes the internist may provide the most comprehensive approach to menopause management. For the internist to meet this need, a set of core competencies must be attained, which will require new didactic programs to be developed for medical students, residents and practicing physicians.

  2. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  3. What contributes to internists' willingness to disclose medical errors?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linthorst, G. E.; Kallimanis-King, B. L.; Douwes Dekker, I.; Hoekstra, J. B. L.; de Haes, J. C. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The release of the report 'To err is human' put medical safety and the disclosure of errors to the forefront of the health care agenda. Disclosure of medical errors by physicians is vital in this process. We studied the role of background and social psychological factors in internists'

  4. What contributes to internists' willingness to disclose medical errors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linthorst, G E; Kallimanis-King, B L; Douwes Dekker, I; Hoekstra, J B L; de Haes, J C J M

    2012-06-01

    The release of the report 'To err is human' put medical safety and the disclosure of errors to the forefront of the health care agenda. Disclosure of medical errors by physicians is vital in this process. We studied the role of background and social psychological factors in internists' willingness to report medical errors. Survey among a random sample of internists from five teaching hospitals in the Netherlands, all internists and internists in training at the Departments of Internal Medicine of the participating hospitals. Questionnaires were received from 115 participants (response 51%). The willingness to disclose was related to the severity of the error, with the majority of near misses not reported to the head of department or the hospital error committees. Errors were more often reported to colleagues. Positive factors in favour of disclosing were reported more often than negative ones prohibiting disclosure. Motivation, behavioural control and social barriers were related to the disclosure of errors. Personal and social issues contributing to the will and addressed properly to stimulate disclosure. The creation of an atmosphere where disclosing errors is routine seems vital. In addition, it is essential to create a departmental culture where medical errors are discussed in a non-judgmental, safe environment. In order to improve reporting of medical errors, more emphasis should be placed on the individual barriers that preclude adequate reporting.

  5. Neuroimaging findings associated with congenital Zika virus syndrome: case series at the time of first epidemic outbreak in Pernambuco State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Pedro; Jungmann, Patricia; Galvão, Jully Moura; Hazin, Adriano; Menezes, Luiza; Ximenes, Ricardo; Tonni, Gabriele; Araujo Júnior, Edward

    2017-12-05

    This study aimed to describe the prenatal and postnatal neuroimaging and clinical findings in a clinical series following congenital Zika virus syndrome during the first epidemic Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. We (the authors) conducted a retrospective study of a prospectively collected case series of fetuses and neonates with microcephaly born to mothers with presumed/confirmed congenital ZIKV syndrome. Prenatal ultrasound findings were reviewed to identify potential central nervous system (CNS) abnormalities. Neonates underwent postnatal neuroimaging follow up by computed tomography (CT)-scan or magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. The prenatal and postnatal outcomes of eight fetuses/neonates born to mothers with presumed/confirmed congenital ZIKV syndrome were examined. The mean gestational age at ultrasound was 31.3 weeks. Severe microcephaly was identified in seven fetuses (87.5%), while ventriculomegaly and brain calcifications were detected in all fetuses. The mean gestational age at delivery and head circumference were 38 weeks and 30.2 cm, respectively. All cases of microcephaly but one was confirmed postnatally. Brain CT scans or MRIs were performed in seven newborns, and all had periventricular and/or parenchymal calcifications, symmetrical or asymmetrical ventriculomegaly, pachygyria, and reduced sulcation and gyration. MR imaging aided the detection of one undetected case of corpus callosum dysgenesis and was essential in documenting reduced mantel of the cerebral cortex and reduced gyration and sulcation, especially involving the parietal lobe. In addition, MR imaging was also able to display irregular interfaces with the subcortical white matter, a finding consistent with polymicrogyria, more frequently seen at the level of the frontal lobe and atrophic and thinned pons. Severe microcephaly and CNS abnormalities may be associated with congenital ZIKV syndrome.

  6. Ethnomedical and ethnobotanical investigations on the response capacities of Guinean traditional health practioners in the management of outbreaks of infectious diseases: The case of the Ebola virus epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldé, A M; Traoré, M S; Baldé, M A; Barry, M S; Diallo, A; Camara, M; Traoré, S; Kouyaté, M; Traoré, S; Ouo-Ouo, S; Myanthé, A L; Keita, N; Haba, N L; Goumou, K; Bah, F; Camara, A; Diallo, M S T; Sylla, M; Baldé, E S; Diané, S; Pieters, L; Oularé, K

    2016-04-22

    The recent outbreak of Ebola virus infections has mostly remained confined to the West African countries Guinea-Conakry, Sierra-Leone and Liberia. Due to intense national and international mobilizations, a significant reduction in Ebola virus transmission has been recorded. While international efforts focus on new vaccines, medicines and diagnostics, no coherent national or international approach exists to integrate the potential of the traditional health practitioners (THPs) in the management of infectious diseases epidemics. Nevertheless, the first contact of most of the Ebola infected patients is with the THPs since the symptoms are similar to those of common traditionally treated diseases or symptoms such as malaria, hemorrhagic syndrome, typhoid or other gastrointestinal diseases, fever and vomiting. In an ethnomedical survey conducted in the 4 main Guinean regions contacts were established with a total of 113 THPs. The socio-demographic characteristics, the professional status and the traditional perception of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) were recorded. The traditional treatment of the main symptoms was based on 47 vegetal recipes which were focused on the treatment of diarrhea (22 recipes), fever (22 recipes), vomiting (2 recipes), external antiseptic (2 recipes), hemorrhagic syndrome (2 recipes), convulsion and dysentery (one recipe each). An ethnobotanical survey led to the collection of 54 plant species from which 44 identified belonging to 26 families. The most represented families were Euphorbiaceae, Caesalpiniaceae and Rubiaceae. Literature data on the twelve most cited plant species tends to corroborate their traditional use and to highlight their pharmacological potential. It is worth to document all available knowledge on the traditional management of EVD-like symptoms in order to evaluate systematically the anti-Ebola potential of Guinean plant species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Perceptions of conflict of interest: surgeons, internists, and learners compared.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gara, Christopher J; Rennick, Kim C; Hanson, John

    2013-05-01

    Making a conflict of interest declaration is now mandatory at continuing medical education CME accredited events. However, these declarations tend to be largely perfunctory. This study sought to better understand physician perceptions surrounding conflict of interest. The same PowerPoint (Microsoft, Canada) presentation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQSOvch7Yg0&feature=g-upl) was delivered at multiple University of Alberta and Royal College CME-accredited events to surgeons, internists, and learners. After each talk, the audience was invited to complete an anonymous, pretested, and standardized 5-point Likert scale (strongly disagree to strongly agree) questionnaire. A total of 136 surveys were analyzed from 31 surgeons, 49 internists, and 56 learners. In response to the question regarding whether by simply making a declaration, the speaker had provided adequate proof of any conflicts of interest, 71% of surgeons thought so, whereas only 35% of internists and 39% of learners agreed or strongly agreed (P = .004). Further probing this theme, the audience was asked whether a speaker must declare fees or monies received from industry for consulting, speaking, and research support. Once again there was a variance of opinion, with only 43% of surgeons agreeing or strongly agreeing with this statement; yet, 80% of internists and 71% of learners felt that such a declaration was necessary (P = .013). On the topic of believability (a speaker declaration makes him or her and the presentation more credible), the 3 groups were less polarized: 50% of surgeons, 41% of internists, and 52% of learners (P = .2) felt that this was the case. Although two thirds of surgeons (68%) and learners (66%) and nearly all internists (84%) felt that industry-sponsored research was biased, these differences were not significant (P = .2). Even when they are completely open and honest, conflict of interest declarations do not negate the biases inherent in a speaker's talk or research when it is

  8. Discrete epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Fred; Feng, Zhilan; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The mathematical theory of single outbreak epidemic models really began with the work of Kermack and Mackendrick about decades ago. This gave a simple answer to the long-standing question of why epidemics woould appear suddenly and then disappear just as suddenly without having infected an entire population. Therefore it seemed natural to expect that theoreticians would immediately proceed to expand this mathematical framework both because the need to handle recurrent single infectious disease outbreaks has always been a priority for public health officials and because theoreticians often try to push the limits of exiting theories. However, the expansion of the theory via the inclusion of refined epidemiological classifications or through the incorporation of categories that are essential for the evaluation of intervention strategies, in the context of ongoing epidemic outbreaks, did not materialize. It was the global threat posed by SARS in that caused theoreticians to expand the Kermack-McKendrick single-outbreak framework. Most recently, efforts to connect theoretical work to data have exploded as attempts to deal with the threat of emergent and re-emergent diseases including the most recent H1N1 influenza pandemic, have marched to the forefront of our global priorities. Since data are collected and/or reported over discrete units of time, developing single outbreak models that fit collected data naturally is relevant. In this note, we introduce a discrete-epidemic framework and highlight, through our analyses, the similarities between single-outbreak comparable classical continuous-time epidemic models and the discrete-time models introduced in this note. The emphasis is on comparisons driven by expressions for the final epidemic size.

  9. An epidemic outbreak of cryptosporidiosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mølbak, Kåre; Højlyng, Niels; Ingholt, Liselotte

    1990-01-01

    In the first year of a prospective community study of childhood diarrhea conducted in a semiurban area in the capital of Guinea Bissau, Cryptosporidium sp. was found in 73 (6.0%) of 1216 episodes of diarrhea. The parasite was the second most prevalent intestinal parasite, and the only one...

  10. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  11. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Notes: We compiled this slide in 1992. It shows dates, locations and number of cases for various epidemics reported from different parts of India till that time. The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began ...

  12. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  13. Impact of the Ebola outbreak on routine immunization in western area, Sierra Leone - a field survey from an Ebola epidemic area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojin Sun

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since March 2014, the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa disrupted health care systems - especially in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – with a consequential stress on the area’s routine immunization programs. To address perceived decreased vaccination coverage, Sierra Leone conducted a catch-up vaccination campaign during 24–27 April 2015. We conducted a vaccination coverage survey and report coverage estimates surrounding the time of the EVD outbreak and the catch-up campaign. Methods We selected 3 villages from each of 3 communities and obtained dates of birth and dates of vaccination with measles vaccine (MV and the 3rd dose of Pentavalent vaccine (Pentavalent3 of all children under 4 years of age in the 9 selected villages. Vaccination data were obtained from parent-held health cards. We calculated the children’s MV and Pentavalent3 coverage rates at 3 time points, 1 August 2014, 1 April 2015, and 1 May 2015, representing coverage rates before the EVD outbreak, during the EVD outbreak, and after the Maternal and Child Health Week (MCHW catch-up campaign. Results The final sample size was 168 children. MV coverage among age-eligible children was 71.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.1% - 80.4% and 45.7% (95% CI: 29.2% - 62.2% before and during the outbreak of EVD, respectively, and was 56.8% (95% CI: 40.8% - 72.7% after the campaign. Pentavalent3 coverage among age-eligible children was 79.8% (95% CI: 72.6% - 87.0% and 40.0% (95% CI: 22.5% - 57.5% before and during the outbreak of EVD, and was 56.4% (95% CI: 39.1% - 73.4% after the campaign. Conclusions Coverage levels of MV and Pentavalent3 were low before the EVD outbreak and decreased further during the outbreak. Although the MCHW catch-up campaign increased coverage levels, coverage remained below pre-outbreak levels. High-quality supplementary immunization activities should be conducted and routine immunization should be strengthened to

  14. Science You Can Use Bulletin: From death comes life: Recovery and revolution in the wake of epidemic outbreaks of mountain pine beetle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl Malcolm; Chuck Rhoades; Michael Battaglia; Paula Fornwalt; Rob Hubbard; Kelly Elder; Byron Collins

    2012-01-01

    Changing climatic conditions and an abundance of dense, mature pine forests have helped to spur an epidemic of mountain pine beetles larger than any in recorded history. Millions of forested acres have been heavily impacted and have experienced extreme rates of tree mortality. This has raised concerns among many people that the death, desiccation, and decomposition of...

  15. Performance of clinical signs in poultry for the detection of outbreaks during the avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Koch, G.; Bouma, A.

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study was to make an inventory of the clinical signs of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), to facilitate the development of an operational syndrome-reporting system (SRS) in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. A total of 537 poultry flocks (240

  16. Performance of clinical signs in poultry for the detection of outbreaks during the avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbers, Armin R W; Koch, Guus; Bouma, Annemarie

    2005-06-01

    The aim of this study was to make an inventory of the clinical signs of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), to facilitate the development of an operational syndrome-reporting system (SRS) in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. A total of 537 poultry flocks (240 infected and 297 non-infected) with a clinical suspicion of an infection with HPAI virus were investigated with respect to the clinical signs observed. Standardized reports were analysed with respect to observed clinical signs in the flocks. Various poultry types were distinguished. In infected commercial flocks with egg-producing chickens, the presence of increased mortality, apathy, coughing, reduction in normal vocalization, or pale eggs appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 99% with a specificity of 23%. In infected turkey flocks, the presence of apathy, decreased growth performance, reduction of normal vocalization, swollen sinuses, yawning, huddling, mucosal production from the beak, or lying down with an extended neck appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 79%. In infected backyard/hobby flocks, increased mortality or swollen head appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators of a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 26%. These results indicate that there is a solid basis for the choice of using increased mortality in the operational SRS in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. The presence of apathy, specifically for turkeys, should be added to the SRS as an indicator.

  17. Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorn Okland; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ottar N. Bjornstad; Nadir Erbilgin; Paal Krokene; Paal Krokene

    2005-01-01

    Comparisons of intraspecific spatial synchrony across multiple epidemic insect species can be useful for generating hypotheses about major determinants of population patterns at larger scales. The present study compares patterns of spatial synchrony in outbreaks of six epidemic bark beetle species in North America and Europe. Spatial synchrony among populations of the...

  18. Cholera in the Portuguese Region of Alto Minho in the Second Half of the Nineteenth Century: Epidemic Outbreaks, Treatment and Behaviours

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Esteves

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our work is to analyse the impact of cholera outbreaks that took place in Alto Minho, a region in the North of Portugal, in a century in which, due to several developments, distances became shorter and people from different parts of the globe became closer, and thus explaining the spreading of a disease that manifests itself quickly and evolves rapidly. We also intend to evaluate the effect of the measures undertaken by administrative and sanitary authorities and to verify the alterations in the daily life of the affected communities as far as economic activities, organization, cleanness and hygiene in the public venue are concerned, emphasizing on the temporary suspension of the relations with the neighbouring region of Galiza equally affected by numerous cholera outbreaks.

  19. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  20. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  1. Effects of operational decisions on the diffusion of epidemic disease: A system dynamics modeling of the MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Nina; Kwag, Taewoo; Park, Sangwook; Kim, Yon Hui

    2017-05-21

    We evaluated the nosocomial outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Coronavirus (CoV) in the Republic of Korea, 2015, from a healthcare operations management perspective. Establishment of healthcare policy in South Korea provides patients' freedom to select and visit multiple hospitals. Current policy enforces hospitals preference for multi-patient rooms to single-patient rooms, to lower financial burden. Existing healthcare systems tragically contributed to 186 MERS outbreak cases, starting from single "index patient" into three generations of secondary infections. By developing a macro-level health system dynamics model, we provide empirical knowledge to examining the case from both operational and financial perspectives. In our simulation, under base infectivity scenario, high emergency room occupancy circumstance contributed to an estimated average of 101 (917%) more infected patients, compared to when in low occupancy circumstance. Economic patient room design showed an estimated 702% increase in the number of infected patients, despite the overall 98% savings in total expected costs compared to optimal room design. This study provides first time, system dynamics model, performance measurements from an operational perspective. Importantly, the intent of this study was to provide evidence to motivate public, private, and government healthcare administrators' recognition of current shortcomings, to optimize performance as a whole system, rather than mere individual aspects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Differences between Pediatricians and Internists in Advance Care Planning for Adolescents with Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yotani, Nobuyuki; Kizawa, Yoshiyuki; Shintaku, Haruo

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate differences between pediatricians and internists in the practice of and barriers to advance care planning (ACP) for adolescent patients with cancer. A self-reported questionnaire was administered to assess the practice of ACP, advance directives, and barriers to ACP for adolescent patients with cancer. All 3392 Japanese board-certified hematologists were surveyed, and 600 hematologists (227 pediatricians, 373 internists) who take care of adolescent patients with cancer with decision-making capacity were analyzed. If a patient's prognosis for survival was pediatricians were significantly less likely to discuss ACP with their patients than internists, including discussions regarding the patient's medical condition (59% vs 70%), the patient's understanding of his/her medical condition (55% vs 66%), do not attempt resuscitation orders (17% vs 24%), and ventilator treatment if the patient's condition worsened (19% vs 25%). More than 75% of hematologists (both pediatricians and internists) discussed all ACP topics with patients' families. Similarly, with regard to advance directives, pediatricians were less likely than internists to discuss cardiopulmonary resuscitation (24% vs 47%) and the use of ventilators (31% vs 51%), vasopressors (24% vs 42%), and antibiotics (21% vs 31%) with their patients. Both pediatricians and internists discussed these issues more often with patients' families than with patients, especially cardiopulmonary resuscitation (98%) as well as the use of ventilators (98%) and vasopressors (91%). Pediatricians were less likely than internists to discuss ACP and advance directives with patients, and both pediatricians and internists tended to discuss ACP and advance directives more often with patients' families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Epidemics and Frequent Recombination within Species in Outbreaks of Human Enterovirus B-Associated Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Shandong China in 2010 and 2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Zhang

    Full Text Available The epidemiology and molecular characteristics of human enterovirus B (HEV-B associated with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD outbreaks in China are not well known. In the present study, we tested 201 HEV isolates from 233 clinical specimens from patients with severe HFMD during 2010-2011 in Linyi, Shandong, China. Of the 201 isolates, 189 were fully typed and 18 corresponded to HEV-B species (six serotypes CVA9, CVB1, CVB4, Echo 6, Echo 25 and Echo 30 using sensitive semi-nested polymerase chain reaction analysis of VP1 gene sequences. Phylogenetic analysis based on the VP1 region showed that eight E30SD belonged to a novel sub-genogroup D2; E25SD belonged to a novel sub-genogroup D6; E6SD belonged to sub-lineage C6 and five CVB1SD belonged to subgroup 4C; and B4SD belonged sub-lineage D2. The full viral genomes of the CVB1SD, E6SD, E25SD and E30SD isolates were sequenced. Analysis of phylogenetic and similarity plots indicated that E25SD recombined with E25-HN-2, E30FDJS03 and E4AUS250 at noncontiguous P2A-P3D regions, while E30SD, E30FDJ03, E25-HN-2 and E9 DM had shared sequences in discrete regions of P2 and P3. Both E6SD and B1SD shared sequences with E1-HN, B4/GX/10, B5-HN, and A9-Alberta in contiguous regions of most of P2 and P3. Genetic algorithm recombination detection analysis further confirmed the existence of multiple potential recombination points. In conclusion, analysis of the complete genomes of E25SD, E30SD, CVB1SD and E6SD isolated from HFMD patients revealed that they formed novel subgenogroup. Given the prevalence and recombination of these viruses in outbreaks of HFMD, persistent surveillance of HFMD-associated HEV-B pathogens is required to predict potential emerging viruses and related disease outbreaks.

  4. Characterization of Neisseria meningitidis Isolates from Recent Outbreaks in Ethiopia and Comparison with Those Recovered during the Epidemic of 1988 to 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norheim, Gunnstein; Rosenqvist, Einar; Aseffa, Abraham; Yassin, Mohammed Ahmed; Mengistu, Getahun; Kassu, Afework; Fikremariam, Dereje; Tamire, Wegene; Høiby, E. Arne; Alebel, Tsegaye; Berhanu, Degu; Merid, Yarid; Harboe, Morten; Caugant, Dominique A.

    2006-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to collect and characterize epidemic meningococcal isolates from Ethiopia from 2002 to 2003 and to compare them to 21 strains recovered during the previous large epidemic of 1988 to 1989. Ninety-five patients in all age groups with clinical signs of meningitis and a turbid cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) sample were included in the study of isolates from 2002 to 2003. Seventy-one patients (74.7%) were confirmed as having Neisseria meningitidis either by culture (n = 40) or by porA PCR (n = 31) of their CSF. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 11.6%; the N. meningitidis-specific CFR was 4.2%. All 40 strains were fully susceptible to all antibiotics tested except sulfonamide, were serotyped as A:4/21:P1.20,9, and belonged to sequence type 7 (ST-7). The strains from 1988 to 1989 were also equally susceptible and were characterized as A:4/21:P1.20,9, but they belonged to ST-5. Antigenic characterization of the strains revealed differences in the repertoire of lipooligosaccharides and Opa proteins between the old and the recent strains. PCR analysis of the nine lgt genes revealed the presence of the lgtAHFG genes in both old and recent strains; lgtB was present in only some of the strains, but no correlation with sequence type was observed. Further analysis showed that in addition to their pgm alleles, the Ethiopian ST-5 and ST-7 strains also differed in their tbpB, opa, fetA, and lgtA genes. The occurrence of new antigenic structures in strains sharing the same serogroup, PorA, and PorB may help explain the replacement of ST-5 by ST-7 in the African meningitis belt. PMID:16517868

  5. Scaling behavior of threshold epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.

    2012-05-01

    We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease from infected individuals, while infected ones recover from the disease at a constant rate and are never infected again. Our focus is the behavior at the epidemic threshold where the rates of the infection and recovery processes balance. In the infinite population limit, we establish analytically scaling rules for the time-dependent distribution functions that characterize the sizes of the infected and the recovered sub-populations. Using heuristic arguments, we also obtain scaling laws for the size and duration of the epidemic outbreaks as a function of the total population. We perform numerical simulations to verify the scaling predictions and discuss the consequences of these scaling laws for near-threshold epidemic outbreaks.

  6. Uncommon mixed outbreak of pneumococcal and meningococcal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The Jirapa District in Ghana falls within the African meningitis belt where over 500 million people are at risk of epidemic meningitis. The district suffered an outbreak of Neisseria meningitides, W (NMW) in 2012 and a mixed outbreak of Streptococcus pneumonia and NMW in early 2016. We investigated the ...

  7. The evolution of Ebola virus disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gałas, Aleksander

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents general information regarding descriptive epidemiology of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks. Some observations have shown the decrease in case fatality ratio after several generations of patient-to-patient passage. An increase in the frequency of EVD outbreaks across decades was also noticed. The knowledge about the past outbreaks may provide crucial information about the evolution of EVD epidemic, which may be useful for future preventions.

  8. Dimensionality reduction in epidemic spreading models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasca, M.; Rizzo, A.; Gallo, L.; Fortuna, L.; Porfiri, M.

    2015-09-01

    Complex dynamical systems often exhibit collective dynamics that are well described by a reduced set of key variables in a low-dimensional space. Such a low-dimensional description offers a privileged perspective to understand the system behavior across temporal and spatial scales. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach to establish low-dimensional representations of large epidemic datasets by using a dimensionality reduction algorithm based on isometric features mapping (ISOMAP). We demonstrate our approach on synthetic data for epidemic spreading in a population of mobile individuals. We find that ISOMAP is successful in embedding high-dimensional data into a low-dimensional manifold, whose topological features are associated with the epidemic outbreak. Across a range of simulation parameters and model instances, we observe that epidemic outbreaks are embedded into a family of closed curves in a three-dimensional space, in which neighboring points pertain to instants that are close in time. The orientation of each curve is unique to a specific outbreak, and the coordinates correlate with the number of infected individuals. A low-dimensional description of epidemic spreading is expected to improve our understanding of the role of individual response on the outbreak dynamics, inform the selection of meaningful global observables, and, possibly, aid in the design of control and quarantine procedures.

  9. Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.

  10. Context analysis for epidemic control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, Y.L.; Kraaij-Dirkzwager, M.M.; Timen, A.; Schuitmaker-Warnaar, T.J.; van Steenbergen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models

  11. A history of the INTERNIST-1 and Quick Medical Reference (QMR) computer-assisted diagnosis projects, with lessons learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R A

    2010-01-01

    The INTERNIST-1/Quick Medical Reference (QMR) diagnostic decision support project spans four decades, from 1971-onward. This paper describes the history of the project and details insights gained of relevance to the general clinical and informatics communities.

  12. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  13. [Diabetic foot syndrome from the perspective of internist educated in podiatry].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jirkovská, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    Podiatry is the science dealing with the diagnostics and treatment of the foot and ankle and associated tissues and structures by all appropriate methods and also with the local manifestation of the overall processes in this area. Diabetic foot disease is defined as infection, ulceration or destruction of tissues of the foot associated with neuropathy and/or peripheral artery disease in the lower extremity of people with diabetes according to the latest edition of the International Consensus. Successful treatment and prevention of diabetic foot syndrome depends on a holistic approach, in which it is seen as part of the multiple organ involvement. Teamwork of series of experts is therefore necessary. Internist with diabetes and podiatric education plays a key role in this team in particular, when control diabetes and in the prevention and treatment of co-morbidities, in the diagnosis of malnutrition and in the nutritional therapy and in the early diagnosis and effective treatment of infections. Last but not least, internist in collaboration with other professionals works when treatment of lower limb ischemia, suitable offloading of the ulcer and topical therapy and in the prevention of ulcers. Recurrent ulcerations are the major problem in podiatry and it can occur in up to 40% of patients in the first year after healing. Follow-up of patients with diabetic foot syndrome by experienced internist can help reduce the serious consequences, including amputation and cardiovascular mortality.Key words: diabetic foot - internal medicine - podiatry.

  14. Modernising epidemic science: enabling patient-centred research during epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojek, Amanda M; Horby, Peter W

    2016-12-19

    Emerging and epidemic infectious disease outbreaks are a significant public health problem and global health security threat. As an outbreak begins, epidemiological investigations and traditional public health responses are generally mounted very quickly. However, patient-centred research is usually not prioritised when planning and enacting the response. Instead, the clinical research response occurs subsequent to and separate from the public health response, and is inadequate for evidence-based decision-making at the bedside or in the offices of public health policymakers. The deficiencies of the clinical research response to severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Ebola virus demonstrate that current research models do not adequately inform and improve the quality of clinical care or public health response. Three suggestions for improvements are made. First, integrate the data and sample collection needs for clinical and public health decision-making within a unified framework, combined with a risk-based, rather than a discipline-based, approach to ethical review and consent. Second, develop clinical study methods and tools that are specifically designed to meet the epidemiological and contextual challenges of emerging and epidemic infectious diseases. Third, invest in investigator-led clinical research networks that are primed and incentivised to respond to outbreak infections, and which can call on the support and resources of a central centre of excellence. It is crucial that the field of epidemic science matures to place patients at the heart of the response. This can only be achieved when patient-centred research is integrated in the outbreak response from day one and practical steps are taken to reduce the barriers to the generation of reliable and useful evidence.

  15. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-05-04

    May 4, 1991 ... During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987,. 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in.

  16. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  17. Antiretroviral Medication Adherence During The Ebola Epidemic In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak is the largest in history and the first in West Africa. The outbreak affected multiple countries in West Africa. Worldwide, there have been 28,639 cases of Ebola virus disease and 11,316 deaths at 13 March 2016 in the world's worst recorded Ebola epidemic in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

  18. Epidemic spastic paraparesis in Bandundu (Zaire).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carton, H; Kayembe, K; Kabeya; Odio; Billiau, A; Maertens, K

    1986-06-01

    Epidemiological findings of twenty sporadic cases of epidemic spastic paraparesis (buka-buka) in three areas of Bandundu (Zaire) are reported. These findings suggest the involvement of an infectious agent and do not support the hypothesis of a dietary cyanide intoxication, which has been advanced to explain the outbreak of a very similar disease (Mantakassa) in Mozambique.

  19. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  20. Estimation of the Malthusian parameter in an stochastic epidemic model using martingale methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindenstrand, David; Svensson, Åke

    2013-12-01

    Data, on the number of infected, gathered from a large epidemic outbreak can be used to estimate parameters related to the strength and speed of the spread. The Malthusian parameter, which determines the initial growth rate of the epidemic is often of crucial interest. Using a simple epidemic SEIR model with known generation time distribution, we define and analyze an estimate, based on martingale methods. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimate and compare them to the results from simulations of the epidemic. The estimate uses all the information contained in the epidemic curve, in contrast to estimates which only use data from the start of the outbreak.

  1. Diagnosis of cardiomyopathies: tips and tricks for internists and general practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Palmiero

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Cardiomyopathies are little known to internists and general practitioners (GPs, and not always able to arouse the interest of cardiologists. Probably, this happens because cardiomyopathies are perceived as rare and complex disorders, a prerogative of a few dedicated centers. This may partly explain why the diagnosis of cardiomyopathy is often missed and, consequently, why cardiomyopathies are largely underdiagnosed. Internists and general practitioners should have an interest in these conditions, because cardiomyopathies are not as rare as generally perceived, and because their complexity can be unravelled with knowledge and methodology. Cardiomyopathies are defined as myocardial disorders in which the heart is structurally and functionally abnormal in the absence of coronary artery disease or abnormal loading conditions. Irrespective of the cardiac imaging technique used, a limited number of phenotypes are defined based on ventricular morphology and function. These basic phenotypes include hypertrophic, dilated, restrictive and right ventricular arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathies. Aim of this review is to describe a simplified approach to the detection of the underlying causes of specific phenotypes. We will focus our attention on the basic phenotypes, presenting a diagnostic work-up and a suggestive clinical case for each phenotype.

  2. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  3. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  4. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  5. Does an in-house internist at a GP practice result in reduced referrals to hospital-based specialist care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quanjel, Tessa C C; Winkens, Anne; Spreeuwenberg, Marieke D; Struijs, Jeroen N; Winkens, Ron A G; Baan, Caroline A; Ruwaard, Dirk

    2018-03-01

    Consistent evidence on the effects of specialist services in the primary care setting is lacking. Therefore, this study evaluated the effects of an in-house internist at a GP practice on the number of referrals to specialist care in the hospital setting. Additionally, the involved GPs and internist were asked to share their experiences with the intervention. A retrospective interrupted times series study. Two multidisciplinary general practitioner (GP) practices. An internist provided in-house patient consultations in two GP practices and participated in the multidisciplinary meetings. The referral data extracted from the electronic medical record system of the GP practices, including all referral letters from the GPs to specialist care in the hospital setting. The number of referrals to internal medicine in the hospital setting. This study used an autoregressive integrated moving average model to estimate the effect of the intervention taking account of a time trend and autocorrelation among the observations, comparing the pre-intervention period with the intervention period. It was found that the referrals to internal medicine did not statistically significant decrease during the intervention period. This small explorative study did not find any clues to support that an in-house internist at a primary care setting results in a decrease of referrals to internal medicine in the hospital setting. Key Points An in-house internist at a primary care setting did not result in a significant decrease of referrals to specialist care in the hospital setting. The GPs and internist experience a learning-effect, i.e. an increase of knowledge about internal medicine issues.

  6. A national comparison of burnout and work-life balance among internal medicine hospitalists and outpatient general internists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Daniel L; Shanafelt, Tait D; Dyrbye, Liselotte N; West, Colin P

    2014-03-01

    General internists suffer higher rates of burnout and lower satisfaction with work-life balance than most specialties, but the impact of inpatient vs outpatient practice location is unclear. Physicians in the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile were previously surveyed about burnout, depression, suicidal ideation, quality of life, fatigue, work-life balance, career plans, and health behaviors. We extracted and compared data for these variables for the 130 internal medicine hospitalists and 448 outpatient general internists who participated. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, hours worked, and practice setting. There were 52.3% of the hospitalists and 54.5% of the outpatient internists affected by burnout (P = 0.86). High scores on the emotional exhaustion subscale (43.8% vs 48.1%, P = 0.71) and on the depersonalization subscale (42.3% vs 32.7%, P = 0.17) were common but similar in frequency in the 2 groups. Hospitalists were more likely to score low on the personal accomplishment subscale (20.3% vs 9.6%, P = 0.04). There were no differences in symptoms of depression (40.3% for hospitalists vs 40.0% for outpatient internists, P = 0.73) or recent suicidality (9.2% vs 5.8%, P = 0.15). Rates of reported recent work-home conflict were similar (48.4% vs 41.3%, P = 0.64), but hospitalists were more likely to agree that their work schedule leaves enough time for their personal life and family (50.0% vs 42.0%, P = 0.007). Burnout was common among both hospitalists and outpatient general internists, although hospitalists were more satisfied with work-life balance. A better understanding of the causes of distress and identification of solutions for all internists is needed. © 2014 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  7. Timely Response and Containment of 2016 Cholera Outbreak in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Method: A prospective study where a team was put in place to investigate an outbreak of diarrhoeal disease of undetermined cause. The team comprising of surveillance, medical, environmental and laboratory staff was formed to investigate this outbreak within the context of cholera an on-going cholera epidemic Lusaka ...

  8. Ebola Viral Hemorrhagic Disease Outbreak in West Africa- Lessons ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: Several factors have contributed to the successful quick containment of Ebola outbreaks in Uganda. West African countries experiencing Ebola outbreaks could draw some lessons from the Uganda experience and adapt them to contain the Ebola epidemic. Key words: Ebola, viral hemorrhagic fever, West Africa ...

  9. Outbreak of serotype W135 Neisseria meningitidis in central river ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Meningitis still accounts for many deaths in children especially during epidemics in countries within the African meningitis belt. Between February and May 2012, the Gambia witnessed an outbreak of meningitis in two of its six regions. This study presents a clinical perspective of this outbreak in central river ...

  10. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

    2014-01-01

    Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

  11. Chimpanzee adenoviral vectors as vaccines for outbreak pathogens

    OpenAIRE

    Ewer, Katie; Sebastian, Sarah; Spencer, Alexandra J.; Gilbert, Sarah; Hill, Adrian V. S.; Lambe, Teresa

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT The 2014–15 Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted the potential for large disease outbreaks caused by emerging pathogens and has generated considerable focus on preparedness for future epidemics. Here we discuss drivers, strategies and practical considerations for developing vaccines against outbreak pathogens. Chimpanzee adenoviral (ChAd) vectors have been developed as vaccine candidates for multiple infectious diseases and prostate cancer. ChAd vectors are safe and induce antig...

  12. Transmission Models of Historical Ebola Outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Drake, John M.; Bakach, Iurii; Just, Matthew R.; O?Regan, Suzanne M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai

    2015-01-01

    To guide the collection of data under emergent epidemic conditions, we reviewed compartmental models of historical Ebola outbreaks to determine their implications and limitations. We identified future modeling directions and propose that the minimal epidemiologic dataset for Ebola model construction comprises duration of incubation period and symptomatic period, distribution of secondary cases by infection setting, and compliance with intervention recommendations.

  13. Canine Distemper Outbreak in Rhesus Monkeys, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhang, Shoufeng; Fan, Quanshui; Liu, Hua; Zhang, Fuqiang; Wang, Wei; Liao, Guoyang

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006, canine distemper outbreaks have occurred in rhesus monkeys at a breeding farm in Guangxi, People’s Republic of China. Approximately 10,000 animals were infected (25%–60% disease incidence); 5%–30% of infected animals died. The epidemic was controlled by vaccination. Amino acid sequence analysis of the virus indicated a unique strain. PMID:21801646

  14. The internist as clinical ethics consultant: An antidote to "the barbarism of specialisation" in hospital practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Real de Asúa, D; Rodriguez Del Pozo, P; Fins, J J

    2018-04-01

    The development of hospital clinical ethics in Spain depends almost exclusively on the healthcare ethics committees, which have been criticized for a lack of proximity to the patient's bedside in day-to-day ethical conflicts and for their scarce practical operation, reflected in the low number of consultations they receive. In this study, we reflect on the need to change the current healthcare model in clinical ethics so as to reactivate it and call attention to the essential role of internists as the engine for this change. To this end, we propose a model in which the healthcare ethics committees incorporate ethics consultants, who are better positioned to discuss cases at the patient's bedside. We then analyse the characteristics that these consultants should have. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  15. Severe Dengue Fever Outbreak in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sheng-Fan; Wang, Wen-Hung; Chang, Ko; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Tseng, Sung-Pin; Yen, Chia-Hung; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chen, Yi-Ming Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a vector-borne disease caused by dengue viruses (DENVs). Epidemic dengue occurs intermittently in Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan experienced its largest DF outbreak. There were 15,732 DF cases reported. There were a total of 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, of which 20 resulted in death. Most DF cases were reported in southern Taiwan. A total of 15,043 (96%) cases were from Kaohsiung, a modern city in southern Taiwan. This report reviews DF epidemics in Taiwan during 2005–2014. The correlation between DF and DHF along with temperature and precipitation were conjointly examined. We conclude that most dengue epidemics in Taiwan resulted from imported DF cases. Results indicate three main factors that may have been associated with this DF outbreak in Kaohsiung: an underground pipeline explosion combined with subsequent rainfall and higher temperature. These factors may have enhanced mosquito breeding activity, facilitating DENV transmission. PMID:26572871

  16. Severe Dengue Fever Outbreak in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sheng-Fan; Wang, Wen-Hung; Chang, Ko; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Tseng, Sung-Pin; Yen, Chia-Hung; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chen, Yi-Ming Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a vector-borne disease caused by dengue viruses (DENVs). Epidemic dengue occurs intermittently in Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan experienced its largest DF outbreak. There were 15,732 DF cases reported. There were a total of 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, of which 20 resulted in death. Most DF cases were reported in southern Taiwan. A total of 15,043 (96%) cases were from Kaohsiung, a modern city in southern Taiwan. This report reviews DF epidemics in Taiwan during 2005-2014. The correlation between DF and DHF along with temperature and precipitation were conjointly examined. We conclude that most dengue epidemics in Taiwan resulted from imported DF cases. Results indicate three main factors that may have been associated with this DF outbreak in Kaohsiung: an underground pipeline explosion combined with subsequent rainfall and higher temperature. These factors may have enhanced mosquito breeding activity, facilitating DENV transmission. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  17. Deciphering the Origins and Tracking the Evolution of Cholera Epidemics with Whole-Genome-Based Molecular Epidemiology

    OpenAIRE

    Grad, Yonatan H.; Waldor, Matthew K.

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT The devastating Haitian cholera outbreak that began in October 2010 is the first known cholera epidemic in this island nation. Epidemiological and genomic data have provided strong evidence that United Nations security forces from Nepal introduced toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1, the cause of epidemic cholera, to Haiti shortly before the outbreak arose. However, some have contended that indigenous V.?cholerae contributed to the outbreak. In a recent paper (mBio 4:e00398-13, 2013), L. S....

  18. A measles epidemic threshold in a highly vaccinated population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mass vaccination against measles has successfully lowered the incidence of the disease and has changed the epidemic pattern from a roughly biennial cycle to an irregular sequence of outbreaks. A possible explanation for this sequence of outbreaks is that the vaccinated population is protected by solid herd immunity. If so, we would expect to see the fraction of susceptible individuals remaining below an epidemic threshold. An alternative explanation is the occurrence of occasional localised lapses in herd immunity that allow for major outbreaks in areas with a low vaccine coverage. In that case, we would expect the fraction of susceptible individuals to exceed an epidemic threshold before outbreaks occur. These two explanations for the irregular sequence of measles outbreaks can be tested against observations of both the fraction of susceptible individuals and infection attack rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have estimated both the fraction of susceptible individuals at the start of each epidemic year and the infection attack rates for each epidemic year in the Netherlands over a 28-y period. During this period the vaccine coverage averaged 93%, and there was no sustained measles transmission. Several measles outbreaks occurred in communities with low vaccine coverage, and these ended without intervention. We show that there is a clear threshold value for the fraction of susceptible individuals, below which only minor outbreaks occurred, and above which both minor and major outbreaks occurred. A precise, quantitative relationship exists between the fraction of susceptible individuals in excess of this threshold and the infection attack rate during the major outbreaks. CONCLUSION: In populations with a high but heterogeneous vaccine coverage, measles transmission can be interrupted without establishing solid herd immunity. When infection is reintroduced, a major outbreak can occur in the communities with low vaccine coverage. During

  19. Swine flu - A pandemic outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jini George

    Full Text Available Hippocrates had described influenza like outbreak in 412 B.C. and since then repeated influenza like epidemics and pandemics have been recorded in recent times. One of the greatest killers of all time was the pandemic of swine flu (Spanish flu of 1918-1919, when 230 million people died. Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population, resulting in severe illness in 3–5 million patients causing 250,000–500,000 deaths worldwide. Severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients. The 2009 outbreak of swine flu is thought to be a mutation more specifically a reassortment of four known strains of influenza A virus subtype H1N1; one endemic in humans, one endemic in birds, and two endemic in pigs. WHO officially declared the outbreak to be a pandemic on June 11, 2009, but stressed that the new designation was a result of the global "spread of the virus," not its severity. [Vet World 2009; 2(12.000: 472-474

  20. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    OpenAIRE

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-01-01

    In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part o...

  1. Predictive analysis effectiveness in determining the epidemic disease infected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Najihah; Akhir, Nur Shazwani Md.; Hassan, Fadratul Hafinaz

    2017-10-01

    Epidemic disease outbreak had caused nowadays community to raise their great concern over the infectious disease controlling, preventing and handling methods to diminish the disease dissemination percentage and infected area. Backpropagation method was used for the counter measure and prediction analysis of the epidemic disease. The predictive analysis based on the backpropagation method can be determine via machine learning process that promotes the artificial intelligent in pattern recognition, statistics and features selection. This computational learning process will be integrated with data mining by measuring the score output as the classifier to the given set of input features through classification technique. The classification technique is the features selection of the disease dissemination factors that likely have strong interconnection between each other in causing infectious disease outbreaks. The predictive analysis of epidemic disease in determining the infected area was introduced in this preliminary study by using the backpropagation method in observation of other's findings. This study will classify the epidemic disease dissemination factors as the features for weight adjustment on the prediction of epidemic disease outbreaks. Through this preliminary study, the predictive analysis is proven to be effective method in determining the epidemic disease infected area by minimizing the error value through the features classification.

  2. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  3. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellner, S.; Gallant, A.R. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Theiler, J. [Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States)]|[Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-08-01

    Historical data on recurrent epidemics have been central to the debate about the prevalence of chaos in biological population dynamics. Schaffer and Kot who first recognized that the abundance and accuracy of disease incidence data opened the door to applying a range of methods for detecting chaos that had been devised in the early 1980`s. Using attractor reconstruction, estimates of dynamical invariants, and comparisons between data and simulation of SEIR models, the ``case for chaos in childhood epidemics`` was made through a series of influential papers beginning in the mid 1980`s. The proposition that the precise timing and magnitude of epidemic outbreaks are deterministic but chaotic is appealing, since it raises the hope of finding determinism and simplicity beneath the apparently stochastic and complicated surface of the data. The initial enthusiasm for methods of detecting chaos in data has been followed by critical re-evaluations of their limitations. Early hopes of a ``one size fits all`` algorithm to diagnose chaos vs. noise in any data set have given way to a recognition that a variety of methods must be used, and interpretation of results must take into account the limitations of each method and the imperfections of the data. Our goals here are to outline some newer methods for detecting nonlinearity and chaos that have a solid statistical basis and are suited to epidemic data, and to begin a re-evaluation of the claims for nonlinear dynamics and chaos in epidemics using these newer methods. We also identify features of epidemic data that create problems for the older, better known methods of detecting chaos. When we ask ``are epidemics nonlinear?``, we are not questioning the existence of global nonlinearities in epidemic dynamics, such as nonlinear transmission rates. Our question is whether the data`s deviations from an annual cyclic trend (which would reflect global nonlinearities) are described by a linear, noise-driven stochastic process.

  4. Hospitals and organizational models based on the intensity of treatment: the internist's point of view

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Chesi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionThe type of patients being treated in our hospitals has changed significantly. Today's patients are much older with more complicated, polypathological problems. As a result, hospital organization and management structures must also change, particularly in Internal Medicine. A widely discussed approach, organization according to “intensity of treatment,” could be an appropriate solution from an organizational viewpoint that would also satisfy these new demands.Materials and methodsWith the aid of a questionnaire sent to internists working in the hospitals of Italy's Emilia-Romagna region and the review of the relevant medical literature, we defined structural, organizational, technological, managerial, and staffing characteristics to better determine and classify this model. We analyzed questionnaire responses of 31 internists heading operative units in their hospitals, a relatively homogeneous subgroup with experience in organizing and managing healthcare as well as its clinical aspects.ResultsAnalysis of these questionnaires revealed important points concerning the model: 1 an accurate identification of the medical care on which to base the model; 2 a well-defined strategy for differentiated allocation of staff to structural and technological areas depending on the level of medical care provided in the area; 3 an accurate definition of the types and features of patients targeted by each level of medical care; 4 an early exchange (starting from the patient's arrival in the Emergency Department of information and medical knowledge among Emergency Department physicians and those present during the initial stages of hospitalization; 5 a precise definition of responsibilities in the different areas, operative and collaborative stages among different physicians and medical staff, the different disciplines involved in the process.ConclusionsAmong the physicians responsible for managing complex areas of Internal Medicine in Emilia

  5. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  6. Lessons learned during active epidemiological surveillance of Ebola and Marburg viral hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allaranga, Yokouide; Kone, Mamadou Lamine; Formenty, Pierre; Libama, Francois; Boumandouki, Paul; Woodfill, Celia J I; Sow, Idrissa; Duale, Sambe; Alemu, Wondimagegnehu; Yada, Adamou

    2010-03-01

    To review epidemiological surveillance approaches used during Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Africa in the past fifteen years. Overall, 26 hemorrhagic epidemic outbreaks have been registered in 12 countries; 18 caused by the Ebola virus and eight by the Marburg virus. About 2551 cases have been reported, among which 268 were health workers (9,3%). Based on articles and epidemic management reports, this review analyses surveillance approaches, route of introduction of the virus into the population (urban and rural), the collaboration between the human health sector and the wildlife sector and factors that have affected epidemic management. Several factors affecting the epidemiological surveillance during Ebola and Marburg viruses hemorrhagic epidemics have been observed. During epidemics in rural settings, outbreak investigations have shown multiple introductions of the virus into the human population through wildlife. In contrast, during epidemics in urban settings a single introduction of the virus in the community was responsible for the epidemic. Active surveillance is key to containing outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg viruses Collaboration with those in charge of the conservation of wildlife is essential for the early detection of viral hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Hemorrhagic fever epidemics caused by Ebola and Marburg viruses are occurring more and more frequently in Sub-Saharan Africa and only an adapted epidemiological surveillance system will allow for early detection and effective response.

  7. Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana Using Climate Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adde, Antoine; Roucou, Pascal; Mangeas, Morgan; Ardillon, Vanessa; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Rousset, Dominique; Girod, Romain; Briolant, Sébastien; Quenel, Philippe; Flamand, Claude

    2016-01-01

    Background Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Methodology/Principal Findings Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical epidemic year and to define the best indices for predicting dengue fever outbreaks during the period 1991–2013. A logistic regression was then performed to build a forecast model. We demonstrate that a model based on summer Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and Azores High sea-level pressure had predictive value and was able to predict 80% of the outbreaks while incorrectly predicting only 15% of the non-epidemic years. Predictions for 2014–2015 were consistent with the observed non-epidemic conditions, and an outbreak in early 2016 was predicted. Conclusions/Significance These findings indicate that outbreak resurgence can be modeled using a simple combination of climate indicators. This might be useful for anticipating public health actions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and medical infrastructures are generally insufficient. PMID:27128312

  8. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elodie Descloux

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia, and to provide an early warning system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was

  9. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descloux, Elodie; Mangeas, Morgan; Menkes, Christophe Eugène; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Leroy, Anne; Tehei, Temaui; Guillaumot, Laurent; Teurlai, Magali; Gourinat, Ann-Claire; Benzler, Justus; Pfannstiel, Anne; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Degallier, Nicolas; De Lamballerie, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system. Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the

  10. Controlling viral outbreaks: Quantitative strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mummert, Anna; Weiss, Howard

    2017-01-01

    Preparing for and responding to outbreaks of serious livestock infectious diseases are critical measures to safeguard animal health, public health, and food supply. Almost all of the current control strategies are empirical, and mass culling or "stamping out" is frequently the principal strategy for controlling epidemics. However, there are ethical, ecological, and economic reasons to consider less drastic control strategies. Here we use modeling to quantitatively study the efficacy of different control measures for viral outbreaks, where the infectiousness, transmissibility and death rate of animals commonly depends on their viral load. We develop a broad theoretical framework for exploring and understanding this heterogeneity. The model includes both direct transmission from infectious animals and indirect transmission from an environmental reservoir. We then incorporate a large variety of control measures, including vaccination, antivirals, isolation, environmental disinfection, and several forms of culling, which may result in fewer culled animals. We provide explicit formulae for the basic reproduction number, R0, for each intervention and for combinations. We evaluate the control methods for a realistic simulated outbreak of low pathogenic avian influenza on a mid-sized turkey farm. In this simulated outbreak, culling results in more total dead birds and dramatically more when culling all of the infected birds.

  11. For the General Internist: A Summary of Key Innovations in Medical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Brita; Chheda, Shobhina G; Bates, Carol; Dunn, Kathel; Karani, Reena; Willett, Lisa L

    2016-08-01

    We conducted a review of published medical education articles to identify high-quality research and innovation relevant to educators in general medicine. Our review team consisted of six general internists with expertise in medical education and a professional medical librarian. We manually searched 15 journals in pairs (a total of 3062 citations) for original research articles in medical education published in 2014. Each pair of reviewers independently rated the relevance, importance, and generalizability of articles on medical education in their assigned journals using a 27-point scale (maximum of 9 points for each characteristic). From this list, each team member independently reviewed the 22 articles that received a score of 20 or higher from both initial reviewers, and for each selected article rated the quality and global relevance for the generalist educator. We included the seven top-rated articles for presentation in this review, and categorized the studies into four general themes: continuity clinic scheduling, remediation, interprofessional education, and quality improvement and patient safety. We summarized key findings and identified significant limitations of each study. Further studies assessing patient outcomes are needed to strengthen the literature in medical education. This summary of relevant medical education articles can inform future research, teaching, and practice.

  12. Multiple diseases and polypharmacy in the elderly: challenges for the internist of the third millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Nobili

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The pattern of patients admitted to internal medicine wards has dramatically changed in the last 20–30 years. Elderly people are now the most rapidly growing proportion of the patient population in the majority of Western countries, and aging seldom comes alone, often being accompanied by chronic diseases, comorbidity, disability, frailty, and social isolation. Multiple diseases and multimorbidity inevitably lead to the use of multiple drugs, a condition known as polypharmacy. Over the last 20–30 years, problems related to aging, multimorbidity, and polypharmacy have become a prominent issue in global healthcare. This review discusses how internists might tackle these new challenges of the aging population. They are called to play a primary role in promoting a new, integrated, and comprehensive approach to the care of elderly people, which should incorporate age-related issues into routine clinical practice and decisions. The development of new approaches in the frame of undergraduate and postgraduate training and of clinical research is essential to improve and implement suitable strategies meant to evaluate and manage frail elderly patients with chronic diseases, comorbidity, and polypharmacy.

  13. Chagas disease in Europe: A review for the internist in the globalized world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antinori, Spinello; Galimberti, Laura; Bianco, Roberto; Grande, Romualdo; Galli, Massimo; Corbellino, Mario

    2017-09-01

    Chagas disease (CD) or American trypanosomiasis identified in 1909 by Carlos Chagas, has become over the last 40years a global health concern due to the huge migration flows from Latin America to Europe, United States, Canada and Japan. In Europe, most migrants from CD-endemic areas are concentrated in Spain, Italy, France, United Kingdom and Switzerland. Pooled seroprevalence studies conducted in Europe show an overall 4.2% prevalence, with the highest infection rates observed among individuals from Bolivia (18.1%). However, in most European countries the disease is neglected with absence of screening programmes and low access to diagnosis and treatment. Physicians working in Europe should also be aware of the risk of autochthonous transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to newborns by their infected mothers and to recipients of blood or transplanted organs from infected donors. Finally, physicians should be able to recognize and treat the most frequent and serious complications of chronic Chagas disease, namely cardiomyopathy, megacolon and megaesophagus. This review aims to highlights the problem of CD in Europe by reviewing papers published by European researchers on this argument, in order to raise the awareness of internists who are bound to increasingly encounter patients with the disease in their routine daily activities. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Molecular Epidemiology and Antibiotic Susceptibility of Vibrio cholerae Associated with a Large Cholera Outbreak in Ghana in 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Eibach, Daniel; Herrera-Le?n, Silvia; Gil, Horacio; Hogan, Benedikt; Ehlkes, Lutz; Adjabeng, Michael; Kreuels, Benno; Nagel, Michael; Opare, David; Fobil, Julius N; May, J?rgen

    2016-01-01

    Background Ghana is affected by regular cholera epidemics and an annual average of 3,066 cases since 2000. In 2014, Ghana experienced one of its largest cholera outbreaks within a decade with more than 20,000 notified infections. In order to attribute this rise in cases to a newly emerging strain or to multiple simultaneous outbreaks involving multi-clonal strains, outbreak isolates were characterized, subtyped and compared to previous epidemics in 2011 and 2012. Methodology/Principal Finding...

  15. The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phelps, Matthew D.; Azman, Andrew S.; Lewnard, Joseph A.

    2017-01-01

    -cycle transmission to the epidemic. We find transmission between neighborhoods during the epidemic did not follow water pipe connections, suggesting little evidence of long-cycle transmission. Instead, we suggest that short-cycle transmission was likely critical to the propagation of the outbreak. Interventions...

  16. Epidemic dropsy: A mimic of scleroderma?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anupam Wakhlu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Systemic sclerosis (SSc is an autoimmune connective tissue disease involving the skin and internal organs and characterized pathologically by microvascular damage and increased deposition of connective tissue. Skin changes seen in SSc include edema, inflammation, induration, thickening, and progressive skin fibrosis. Histologically, skin fibrosis, accumulation of compact collagen in the dermis, effacement of rete pegs, infiltration by CD4+ T cells, and skin atrophy are observed. The “toxic oil syndrome” reported from Spain caused an outbreak of a scleroderma-like illness and was caused by ingestion of contaminated rapeseed cooking oil. Epidemic dropsy is caused by ingestion of mustard oil contaminated with the oil of Argemone mexicana. The major alkaloids in Argemone oil are sanguinarine and dihydrosanguinarine. These alkaloids produce widespread capillary dilatation, increased capillary permeability, and endothelial proliferation, akin to the toxic oil syndrome. Cutaneous manifestations include erythematous and tender bilaterally symmetrical pitting edema usually involving lower limbs, skin thickening and tethering, pigmentation, and presence of telangiectasias. The dermatopathology observed in epidemic dropsy includes atrophy and flattening of rete pegs, hypertrophy of and deposition of collagen, vascular dilatation and proliferation, and subcutaneous inflammation and fibrosis. Epidemic dropsy usually presents with subacute multisystem involvement, which may mimic a connective tissue disease. Skin involvement in epidemic dropsy may closely mimic cutaneous manifestations in SSc, both clinically and histologically. Thus, the clinician needs to be aware that epidemic dropsy with cutaneous involvement, especially if encountered sporadically, may be mistakenly diagnosed as scleroderma.

  17. Cholera Epidemic in South Sudan and Uganda and Need for International Collaboration in Cholera Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakar, Abdinasir; Bwire, Godfrey; Azman, Andrew S; Bouhenia, Malika; Deng, Lul L; Wamala, Joseph F; Rumunu, John; Kagirita, Atek; Rauzier, Jean; Grout, Lise; Martin, Stephen; Orach, Christopher Garimoi; Luquero, Francisco J; Quilici, Marie-Laure

    2018-05-01

    Combining the official cholera line list data and outbreak investigation reports from the ministries of health in Uganda and South Sudan with molecular analysis of Vibrio cholerae strains revealed the interrelatedness of the epidemics in both countries in 2014. These results highlight the need for collaboration to control cross-border outbreaks.

  18. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  19. Avian Flu Epidemic 2003: Public health consequences. Executive summary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosman A; Mulder YM; Leeuw JRJ de; Meijer A; Du Ry van Beest Holle M; Kamst RA; Velden PG van der; Conyn-van Spaendonck MAE; Koopmans MPG; Ruijten MWMM; Instituut voor Psychotrauma; CIE; MGO; LIS

    2004-01-01

    Executive summary Avian flu epidemic 2003: public health consequences.Risk factors, health, well-being, health care needs and preventive measures during the H7N7 avian flu outbreak control in the Netherlands.An estimated thousand people, possibly more have been infected with avian flu during the

  20. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  1. Understanding Virtual Epidemics: Children's Folk Conceptions of a Computer Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafai, Yasmin B.

    2008-01-01

    Our work investigates the annual outbreak of Whypox, a virtual epidemic in Whyville.net, a virtual world with over 1.2 million registered players ages 8-16. We examined online and classroom participants' understanding of a computer virus using surveys and design activities. Our analyses reveal that students have a mostly naive understanding of a…

  2. Overcrowding and disease epidemics in colonial Lagos: rethinking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus, it degenerated to overcrowding and disease epidemics as epitomised by the outbreak of tuberculosis and bubonic plague in 1919 and between 1924 and 1930 respectively. The paper, therefore, concludes that with the available evidence at our disposal, it is obvious that the road and railway were constructed to ...

  3. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus among Farmed Pigs, Ukraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastjerdi, Akbar; Carr, John; Ellis, Richard J; Steinbach, Falko; Williamson, Susanna

    2015-12-01

    An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea occurred in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine, severely affecting piglets <10 days of age; the mortality rate approached 100%. Full genome sequencing showed the virus to be closely related to strains reported from North America, showing a sequence identity of up to 99.8%.

  4. Alkaline stabilization of manure slurry inactivates porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    The porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak in North America has substantially impacted swine production since it causes nearly 100% mortality in infected pre-weaned piglets. The PED virus is transmitted via the fecal oral route and manure may remain a source of reinfection; therefore, prop...

  5. The 1992 measles epidemic in Cape Town - a changing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Over the last 6 years there has been a decline in the incidence of measles in Cape Town. However, during August 1992 an outbreak occurred, with cases reported at many schools in children presumably immunised. The objectives of this study were to characterise the epidemic in Cape Town and to determine possible ...

  6. Using Clinicians’ Search Query Data to Monitor Influenza Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillana, Mauricio; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Scales, David; Brownstein, John S.

    2014-01-01

    Search query information from a clinician's database, UpToDate, is shown to predict influenza epidemics in the United States in a timely manner. Our results show that digital disease surveillance tools based on experts' databases may be able to provide an alternative, reliable, and stable signal for accurate predictions of influenza outbreaks. PMID:25115873

  7. Disease Outbreak News

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... MERS-CoV) Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface (HAI) Related documents WHO outbreak communication guide 2008 WHO outbreak communications guidelines Outbreak communication: ...

  8. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  9. [Effectiveness of co-management between orthopaedic surgeons and internists for inpatient elders with hip fracture].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizaur-Utrilla, Alejandro; Calduch Broseta, Juan V; Miralles Muñoz, Francisco A; Segarra Soria, Mar; Díaz Castellano, Manuel; Andreu Giménez, Lucio

    2014-11-07

    Hip fracture is a common injury in elder patients who have comorbidities, and it increases the risk of morbimortality. They could benefit from co-management (CM) between orthopaedic surgeons and internists. The objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of this CM. Prospective study of 138 patients over 64 years with hip fracture treated with CM care and one-year of follow-up. The control group was a cohort of 153 patients with similar criteria who had been treated with conventional care. Several pre- and postsurgical variables, complications, and potential risk factors for mortality were analyzed. The Charlson index, mental test, Katz and SF-12 quality of life questionnaires, and Merle D'Aubigné hip score were used. Surgical delay was lower in the CM cohort (P=.001). The rates of complications and readmissions were similar in both cohorts. The average stay was lower (P=.001) in the CM cohort. In-hospital and 3-month mortality were similar, but it was lower in the CM cohort at 6 (P=.04) and 12 months (P=.03). In both cohorts, gender, number of comorbidities, ASA score, Charlson index or surgery type were not predictors of mortality. Surgical delay>2 days was a predictor in the CM cohort, whereas age was a predictor in the control cohort. The final functional outcomes were similar in both cohorts. Our results show the effectiveness of this CM to reduce surgical delay, hospital stay and mortality at 6 months. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  11. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  12. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  13. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Viboud, C��cile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    Background: A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission, refine existing transmission models, and improve disease forecasts. Materials and methods: We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. We test the model against empirical outbreak data representing a var...

  14. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  15. outbreak of hepatitis 'E' in risalpur garrison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, T.B.; Tariq, W.U.Z.

    2007-01-01

    Hepatitis E virus is an RNA virus. It results in epidemics/outbreaks in geographical areas lacking clean water and sanitation. It is excreted in stools and is enterically transmitted (faeco-oral route). The clinical picture resembles other acute hepatitis and diagnosis is clinched by detecting anti-HEV IgM in infected individuals. It is a self-limiting disease and does not progress to chronicity. There is no vaccine available so far, to confer immunity against HEV infection. HEV is endemic in many parts of the world and has resulted in many epidemics / outbreaks worldwide. It is also endemic in Pakistan and epidemics / outbreaks have generally been under reported. To establish the cause of outbreak Blood samples of the patients (n=195), admitted in isolation ward were collected aseptically for routine baseline investigations and hepatitis screening. Separate blood samples were sent to Armed Forces Institute of pathology (AFIP), Rawalpindi for detection of antibodies to hepatitis E virus (Anti HEV IgM). Water samples collected during the outbreak were tested by multiple tube technique. MPN (Most Probable Number) method was used to determine faecal coliform bacteria per 100 ml of water sample. All the patients (n=195) on admission had raised ALT (Alanine Aminotransferase) levels along with hyperbilirubinemia, 37% had raised TLC with polymorphonuclear response. None had HBsAg (Hepatitis B surface antign) or anti-HCV (antibodies to hepatitis C virus), 23% had prolonged PT (Prothrombin Time). Samples despatched to AFIP Rawalpindi confirmed the presence of anti-HEV IgM. Follow up analysis revealed many fold increase in ALT levels. Average stay in the Hospital was 23.6 days per patient. All the water samples were declared unfit for drinking due to high coliform count. At present, no vaccine is available to protect against HEV infection. Mainstay for prevention and occurrence is to formulate cost-effective strategies for improvement of self/environmental hygiene and

  16. Specialist physician knowledge of chronic kidney disease: A comparison of internists and family physicians in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel I. Agaba

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Postgraduate training is aimed at equipping the trainee with the necessary skills to practise as an expert. Non-nephrology specialist physicians render the bulk of pre-end-stage renal disease care for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD. We sought to ascertain the knowledge of CKD amongst non-nephrology specialist physicians who serve as trainers and examiners for a training, accrediting and certifying body in postgraduate medicine in West Africa. We also compared the knowledge of family physicians and non-nephrology internists. Methods: Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to non-nephrology specialist physicians who serve as examiners for the West African College of Physicians.Results: Only 19 (27.5% of the respondents were aware of the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiatives guidelines for CKD management. Twenty five (36.2% of the respondents had adequate knowledge of CKD. There was no significant difference in the proportion of family physicians and non-nephrology internists who had adequate knowledge of CKD (27.3% vs. 40.4% respectively; p = 0.28. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were identified by all of the physicians as risk factors for CKD. Non-nephrology internists more frequently identified systemic lupus erythematosus as a risk factor for CKD, urinalysis with microscopy as a laboratory test for CKD evaluation, and bone disease as a complication of CKD than family physicians.Conclusion: There is a lack of adequate CKD knowledge amongst non-nephrology specialist physicians, since many of them are unaware of the CKD management guidelines. Educational efforts are needed to improve the knowledge of CKD amongst non-nephrology specialist physicians. Guidelines on CKD need to be widely disseminated amongst these physicians.

  17. Simple decision tools to help optimize the control strategy 2 weeks into a Danish FMD epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2012-01-01

    detected after day 14, the epidemic duration after day 14 and the size of the affected region at the end of the epidemic. Statistically significant positive correlations were found in all regression analyses of the data. There was, however, a high degree of variation (Fig. 1), which is to be expected......, since we simulated 5000 different epidemics, while the original publication analyzed regional variations in field data from one and the same epidemic (Hutber et al. 2006). We also simplified the presentation of the results for operational use during a potential outbreak, using a 2-by-2 table format...... to estimate predictive values by applying selected cut-off- values for both the dependent and the independent variables (Table 1). Emergency vaccination should be considered during an outbreak if the predicted cumulative size, duration or cost of the epidemic appears alarming (EU 2003, Kitching et al. 2005...

  18. Disneyland Measles Outbreak

    OpenAIRE

    Palladino, Erica

    2015-01-01

    This media information sheet analyzes print and online coverage of the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak. The frameworks that the media used to report on the outbreak presented vaccination as the only viable option from preventing the spread of measles. Reporting also failed to mention that the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak was smaller than U.S. measles outbreaks in 2013 and 2014.

  19. Climate change and epidemics in Chinese history: A multi-scalar analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Harry F; Fei, Jie; Chan, Christopher Y S; Pei, Qing; Jia, Xin; Yue, Ricci P H

    2017-02-01

    This study seeks to provide further insight regarding the relationship of climate-epidemics in Chinese history through a multi-scalar analysis. Based on 5961 epidemic incidents in China during 1370-1909 CE we applied Ordinary Least Square regression and panel data regression to verify the climate-epidemic nexus over a range of spatial scales (country, macro region, and province). Results show that epidemic outbreaks were negatively correlated with the temperature in historical China at various geographic levels, while a stark reduction in the correlational strength was observed at lower geographic levels. Furthermore, cooling drove up epidemic outbreaks in northern and central China, where population pressure reached a clear threshold for amplifying the vulnerability of epidemic outbreaks to climate change. Our findings help to illustrate the modifiable areal unit and the uncertain geographic context problems in climate-epidemics research. Researchers need to consider the scale effect in the course of statistical analyses, which are currently predominantly conducted on a national/single scale; and also the importance of how the study area is delineated, an issue which is rarely discussed in the climate-epidemics literature. Future research may leverage our results and provide a cross-analysis with those derived from spatial analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andrew M; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Alexander, Laura W; Park, Andrew W; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

    2016-08-01

    Controlling Ebola outbreaks and planning an effective response to future emerging diseases are enhanced by understanding the role of geography in transmission. Here we show how epidemic expansion may be predicted by evaluating the relative probability of alternative epidemic paths. We compared multiple candidate models to characterize the spatial network over which the 2013-2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus spread and estimate the effects of geographical covariates on transmission during peak spread. The best model was a generalized gravity model where the probability of transmission between locations depended on distance, population density and international border closures between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and neighbouring countries. This model out-performed alternative models based on diffusive spread, the force of infection, mobility estimated from cell phone records and other hypothesized patterns of spread. These findings highlight the importance of integrated geography to epidemic expansion and may contribute to identifying both the most vulnerable unaffected areas and locations of maximum intervention value.

  1. Trends of major disease outbreaks in the African region, 2003–2007 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Results: The most commonly reported epidemic outbreaks in Africa include: cholera, dysentery, malaria and hemorrhagic fevers (e.g. Ebola, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo fever and yellow fever). The cyclic meningococcal meningitis outbreak that affects countries along the \\meningitis belt. (spanning Sub-Saharan Africa ...

  2. Measles outbreak investigation in Guji zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Ketema; Tegegne, Ayesheshem Ademe; Mersha, Amare Mengistu; Bayenessagne, Mekonnen Getahun; Hussein, Ibrahim; Bezabeh, Belay

    2017-01-01

    Despite the increase of immunization coverage (administrative) of measles in the country, there are widespread outbreaks of measles. In this respect, we investigated one of the outbreaks that occurred in hard to reach kebeles of Guji Zone, Oromia region, to identify the contributing factors that lead to the protracted outbreak of measles. We used a cross-sectional study design to investigate a measles outbreak in Guji zone, Oromia region. Data entry and analysis was performed using EPI-Info version 7.1.0.6 and MS-Microsoft Excel. In three months' time a total of 1059 suspected cases and two deaths were reported from 9 woredas affected by a measles outbreak in Guji zone. The cumulative attack rate of 81/100,000 population and case fatality ratio of 0.2% was recorded. Of these, 821 (77.5%) cases were measles vaccine. Although, all age groups were affected under five years old were more affected 495 (48%) than any other age groups. In response to the outbreak, an outbreak response immunization was organized at the 11th week of the epidemic, when the epidemic curve started to decline. 6 months to14 years old were targeted for outbreak response immunization and the overall coverage was 97 % (range: 90-103%). Case management with vitamin A supplementation, active case search, and health education was some of the activities carried out to curb the outbreak. We conclude that low routine immunization coverage in conjunction with low access to routine immunization in hard to reach areas, low community awareness in utilization of immunization service, inadequate cold chain management and delivery of a potent vaccine in hard to reach woredas/kebeles were likely contributed to the outbreak that's triggered a broad spread epidemic affecting mostly children without any vaccination. We also figured that the case-based surveillance lacks sensitivity and timely confirmation of the outbreak, which as a result outbreak response immunization were delayed. We recommend establishing

  3. Distinguishing epidemic waves from disease spillover in a wildlife population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craft, Meggan E; Volz, Erik; Packer, Craig; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2009-05-22

    Serengeti lions frequently experience viral outbreaks. In 1994, one-third of Serengeti lions died from canine distemper virus (CDV). Based on the limited epidemiological data available from this period, it has been unclear whether the 1994 outbreak was propagated by lion-to-lion transmission alone or involved multiple introductions from other sympatric carnivore species. More broadly, we do not know whether contacts between lions allow any pathogen with a relatively short infectious period to percolate through the population (i.e. reach epidemic proportions). We built one of the most realistic contact network models for a wildlife population to date, based on detailed behavioural and movement data from a long-term lion study population. The model allowed us to identify previously unrecognized biases in the sparse data from the 1994 outbreak and develop methods for judiciously inferring disease dynamics from typical wildlife samples. Our analysis of the model in light of the 1994 outbreak data strongly suggest that, although lions are sufficiently well connected to sustain epidemics of CDV-like diseases, the 1994 epidemic was fuelled by multiple spillovers from other carnivore species, such as jackals and hyenas.

  4. Chimpanzee adenoviral vectors as vaccines for outbreak pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewer, Katie; Sebastian, Sarah; Spencer, Alexandra J; Gilbert, Sarah; Hill, Adrian V S; Lambe, Teresa

    2017-12-02

    The 2014-15 Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted the potential for large disease outbreaks caused by emerging pathogens and has generated considerable focus on preparedness for future epidemics. Here we discuss drivers, strategies and practical considerations for developing vaccines against outbreak pathogens. Chimpanzee adenoviral (ChAd) vectors have been developed as vaccine candidates for multiple infectious diseases and prostate cancer. ChAd vectors are safe and induce antigen-specific cellular and humoral immunity in all age groups, as well as circumventing the problem of pre-existing immunity encountered with human Ad vectors. For these reasons, such viral vectors provide an attractive platform for stockpiling vaccines for emergency deployment in response to a threatened outbreak of an emerging pathogen. Work is already underway to develop vaccines against a number of other outbreak pathogens and we will also review progress on these approaches here, particularly for Lassa fever, Nipah and MERS.

  5. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  6. An Outbreak of Meningococcal Meningitis Among Children in Azare ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Meningococcal meningitis is a serious disease with high morbidity and mortality among children. It occurs in epidemics in the African meningitic belt. This study reports the epidemiology, clinical features and outcome of an outbreak of meningococcal meningitis in children. From January to December 2003, twenty two ...

  7. Measles Case-based Surveillance and Outbreak response in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Federal Ministry of Health recommendations for response during measles epidemics in Nigeria previously focused on case management using antibiotics and Vitamin. A supplements and did not include outbreak response immunization (ORI) campaigns. However, with the revision of the existing national technical ...

  8. Ebola Viral Hemorrhagic Disease Outbreak in West Africa- Lessons ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ed cooperation of the affected communities. The fact that response teams were eventually turned away from ... cooperation, and motivate the response teams. During the inter-epidemic periods, monthly taskforce meetings are .... In addition, the decentralized district outbreak response teams have onsite support from sen-.

  9. measles case-based surveillance and outbreak response in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    INTRODUCTION. Measles outbreaks pose a continuing public health problem in Africa and other developing nations of the world1. Measles case fatality has been estimated to be between 3 to 5% in developing countries and may be as high as 10% during epidemics2. Despite the efforts made at increasing immunization, ...

  10. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.Results: We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p = 0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014...... African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level outbreaks revealed substantial growth variations (mean p = 0.59, range: 0.14–0.97). The districts of Margibi in Liberia and Bombali and Bo in Sierra Leone had near...

  11. Understanding the Opioid Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search The CDC Opioid Overdose Note: Javascript is disabled or is not ... message, please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Opioid Overdose Opioid Basics Understanding the Epidemic Commonly Used ...

  12. Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazonov, Igor; Kelbert, Mark; Gravenor, Michael B

    2016-04-01

    We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa and Beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar G Gómez-Duarte

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Is there a reason to fear that an Ebola outbreak may strike Latin America? The fear may not be unreasonable taking into account the history of epidemics that have affected the American continent since colonization times in 1492. Old World small pox epidemics spread and killed millions of Native Americans north and south from the equator. Imported West Nile virus infections reported in New York in 1999 dramatically spread East to West of the United States. Most recently, Chikungunya virus arrived to Central America in 2013 and has already infected close to 1 million people in Mexico, Central American countries, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyanas, Paraguay, and Venezuela.

  14. Experimental Infection of Young Pigs with an Early European Strain of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea Virus and a Recent US Strain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lohse, Louise; Krog, Jesper Schak; Strandbygaard, Bertel

    2017-01-01

    Outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhoea (PED) were reported across Europe during the 1980s and 1990s, but only sporadic outbreaks occurred in recent years. PED virus (PEDV) spread for the first time into the USA in 2013 and has caused severe economic losses. Retrospectively, it was found that two...

  15. Ebola virus disease in West Africa: outbreak or epidemic?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Gboyega Ogunbanjo

    2014-08-20

    Aug 20, 2014 ... It was held to determine the way forward with regard to urgent public health surveillance and case findings, in order to curtail ... always wear special protective clothing, e.g. gowns, gloves, a full face mask and eye goggles, when attending to patients who are suspected of having EVD. The carers of the sick, ...

  16. Specialist physician knowledge of chronic kidney disease: A comparison of internists and family physicians in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios H. Tzamaloukas

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Postgraduate training is aimed at equipping the trainee with the necessary skills to practise as an expert. Non-nephrology specialist physicians render the bulk of pre-end-stage renal disease care for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD. We sought to ascertain the knowledge of CKD amongst non-nephrology specialist physicians who serve as trainers and examiners for a training, accrediting and certifying body in postgraduate medicine in West Africa. We also compared the knowledge of family physicians and non-nephrology internists.Methods: Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to non-nephrology specialist physicians who serve as examiners for the West African College of Physicians.Results: Only 19 (27.5% of the respondents were aware of the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiatives guidelines for CKD management. Twenty five (36.2% of the respondents had adequate knowledge of CKD. There was no significant difference in the proportion of family physicians and non-nephrology internists who had adequate knowledge of CKD (27.3% vs. 40.4% respectively; p = 0.28. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were identified by all of the physicians as risk factors for CKD. Non-nephrology internists more frequently identified systemic lupus erythematosus as a risk factor for CKD, urinalysis with microscopy as a laboratory test for CKD evaluation, and bone disease as a complication of CKD than family physicians.Conclusion: There is a lack of adequate CKD knowledge amongst non-nephrology specialist physicians, since many of them are unaware of the CKD management guidelines. Educational efforts are needed to improve the knowledge of CKD amongst non-nephrology specialist physicians. Guidelines on CKD need to be widely disseminated amongst these physicians.Connaissances des spécialistes des maladies rénales chroniques : Une comparaison des internistes et des médecins de famille en Afrique de l’OuestContexte: La formation de troisi

  17. Association of Heavy Rainfall on Genotypic Diversity in V. cholerae Isolates from an Outbreak in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Goel

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The outbreak of waterborne disease cholera has been associated with rainfall and flooding events by contamination of potable water with environmental Vibrio cholerae. The continuation of the epidemic in a region, however, is often due to secondary transmission of the initial outbreak strain through human waste. This paper reports, on the contrary, a rapid shift of genotype from one V. cholerae strain to another one in an epidemic region. V. cholerae isolated from patients during 2005 cholera epidemic in Chennai, India were characterized using PCR identification of toxin genes, antibiogram, and genomic fingerprinting analysis. The results showed that in spite of the similarity of toxin genes and antibiogram, the Vibrio isolates grouped into two different clusters based on the ERIC-PCR fingerprinting. Each cluster corresponded to a distinct peak of cholera outbreak, which occurred after separate heavy rainfall. The results suggest that the rainfall event can bring various genotypes of V. cholerae strains causing multiple outbreaks.

  18. Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor; Tatem, Andrew J.; Baele, Guy; Faria, Nuno R.; Park, Daniel J.; Ladner, Jason T.; Arias, Armando; Asogun, Danny; Bielejec, Filip; Caddy, Sarah L.; Cotten, Matthew; D’Ambrozio, Jonathan; Dellicour, Simon; Di Caro, Antonino; Diclaro, JosephW.; Duraffour, Sophie; Elmore, Michael J.; Fakoli, Lawrence S.; Faye, Ousmane; Gilbert, Merle L.; Gevao, Sahr M.; Gire, Stephen; Gladden-Young, Adrianne; Gnirke, Andreas; Goba, Augustine; Grant, Donald S.; Haagmans, Bart L.; Hiscox, Julian A.; Jah, Umaru; Kargbo, Brima; Kugelman, Jeffrey R.; Liu, Di; Lu, Jia; Malboeuf, Christine M.; Mate, Suzanne; Matthews, David A.; Matranga, Christian B.; Meredith, Luke W.; Qu, James; Quick, Joshua; Pas, Suzan D.; Phan, My VT; Pollakis, Georgios; Reusken, Chantal B.; Sanchez-Lockhart, Mariano; Schaffner, Stephen F.; Schieffelin, John S.; Sealfon, Rachel S.; Simon-Loriere, Etienne; Smits, Saskia L.; Stoecker, Kilian; Thorne, Lucy; Tobin, Ekaete Alice; Vandi, Mohamed A.; Watson, Simon J.; West, Kendra; Whitmer, Shannon; Wiley, Michael R.; Winnicki, Sarah M.; Wohl, Shirlee; Wölfel, Roman; Yozwiak, Nathan L.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Blyden, Sylvia O.; Bolay, Fatorma; Carroll, MilesW.; Dahn, Bernice; Diallo, Boubacar; Formenty, Pierre; Fraser, Christophe; Gao, George F.; Garry, Robert F.; Goodfellow, Ian; Günther, Stephan; Happi, Christian T.; Holmes, Edward C.; Kargbo, Brima; Keïta, Sakoba; Kellam, Paul; Koopmans, Marion P. G.; Kuhn, Jens H.; Loman, Nicholas J.; Magassouba, N’Faly; Naidoo, Dhamari; Nichol, Stuart T.; Nyenswah, Tolbert; Palacios, Gustavo; Pybus, Oliver G.; Sabeti, Pardis C.; Sall, Amadou; Ströher, Ute; Wurie, Isatta; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The 2013–2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Analysing 1610 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing they were susceptible to significant outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform interventions in future epidemics. PMID:28405027

  19. Epidemiological description of unmitigated cholera epidemics in 19th century Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phelps, M.; Perner, M. L.; Davidsen, E.

    Background. Cholera epidemics devastated 19th century European cities in multiple outbreaks during 1830-1900. Most Danish cities experienced only a single epidemic in 1853 and detailed data are available. This uniquely allows study of unmitigated epidemic cholera in a fully susceptible population....... These insights can be used for empirical parameterization of mathematical models of cholera transmission. Here we describe the Danish cholera experience and provide a detailed examination of the transmission and impact of cholera outbreaks in three cities including Copenhagen. Methods: We accessed cholera...... surveillance data and contemporary descriptions by physicians of the outbreaks from Danish archives. We also accessed census data and annual mortality time series data available by cause and age, and used statistical modeling to attribute age-specific cholera mortality burden. The intrinsic transmission...

  20. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism.......Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...

  2. Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

  3. Dynamics of cholera epidemics from Benin to Mauritania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sandra; Dongdem, Anthony Zunuo; Opare, David; Cottavoz, Paul; Fookes, Maria; Sadji, Adodo Yao; Dzotsi, Emmanuel; Dogbe, Michael; Jeddi, Fakhri; Bidjada, Bawimodom; Piarroux, Martine; Valentin, Ouyi Tante; Glèlè, Clément Kakaï; Rebaudet, Stanislas; Sow, Amy Gassama; Constantin de Magny, Guillaume; Koivogui, Lamine; Dunoyer, Jessica; Bellet, Francois; Garnotel, Eric; Thomson, Nicholas; Piarroux, Renaud

    2018-04-09

    The countries of West Africa are largely portrayed as cholera endemic, although the dynamics of outbreaks in this region of Africa remain largely unclear. To understand the dynamics of cholera in a major portion of West Africa, we analyzed cholera epidemics from 2009 to 2015 from Benin to Mauritania. We conducted a series of field visits as well as multilocus variable tandem repeat analysis and whole-genome sequencing analysis of V. cholerae isolates throughout the study region. During this period, Ghana accounted for 52% of the reported cases in the entire study region (coastal countries from Benin to Mauritania). From 2009 to 2015, we found that one major wave of cholera outbreaks spread from Accra in 2011 northwestward to Sierra Leone and Guinea in 2012. Molecular epidemiology analysis confirmed that the 2011 Ghanaian isolates were related to those that seeded the 2012 epidemics in Guinea and Sierra Leone. Interestingly, we found that many countries deemed "cholera endemic" actually suffered very few outbreaks, with multi-year lulls. This study provides the first cohesive vision of the dynamics of cholera epidemics in a major portion of West Africa. This epidemiological overview shows that from 2009 to 2015, at least 54% of reported cases concerned populations living in the three urban areas of Accra, Freetown, and Conakry. These findings may serve as a guide to better target cholera prevention and control efforts in the identified cholera hotspots in West Africa.

  4. Plague Epidemic s in Syria b etween XIII - XV. Centuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esra ATMACA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Epidemic diseases that cause mass death has been one of the greatest fears of the society in the past century Usually due to poor living conditions, poverty, the inadequate treatment. Plague is one of them. Plague word is sometimes used synonymously with t he word tâûn, sometimes considered to be a greater sense of the Word plague. These outbreaks occured repeatedly in human society and many times occured between XIII - XV. centuries. Our research aims to examine the plague occured in Syria in the Mamluk state domination discussed period. One of the outbreaks have occured in the period between the years 1347 - 1351. Epidemic was looming at the same time with the European named the black death or large extinction. Many people have been killed in Syria as in other places where the epidemic has spread. Rumors about them are given in the source is situated in the form of the issuance of the number of people who died in one day and sometimes the total number of deaths took place at a given date range. In this study, we aimed to determine which is more severe than the others in the outbreak, to assess the rumor about the number of deaths from this cause, to reveal the difficulties of the funeral of the dead, to uncover practices that people do to get rid of this disease.

  5. Epidemiology and vaccine of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in China: a mini-review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dongbo; Wang, Xinyu; Wei, Shan; Chen, Jianfei; Feng, Li

    2016-03-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is an intestinal infectious disease caused by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV); manifestations of the disease are diarrhea, vomiting and dehydration. Starting from the end of 2010, a PED outbreak occurred in several pig-producing provinces in southern China. Subsequently, the disease spread throughout the country and caused enormous economic losses to the pork industry. Accumulating studies demonstrated that new PEDV variants that appeared in China were responsible for the PED outbreak. In the current mini-review, we summarize PEDV epidemiology and vaccination in China.

  6. A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J.S. Allen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential equations. Some well-known examples are used for illustration such as an SIR epidemic model and a host-vector malaria model. Analytical methods for approximating the probability of a disease outbreak are also discussed. Keywords: Branching process, Continuous-time Markov chain, Minor outbreak, Stochastic differential equation, 2000 MSC: 60H10, 60J28, 92D30

  7. Epidemic Venezuelan equine encephalitis in La Guajira, Colombia, 1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, F; Diaz, L A; Cardenas, V M; Daza, E; Bruzon, L; Alcala, A; De la Hoz, O; Caceres, F M; Aristizabal, G; Martinez, J W; Revelo, D; De la Hoz, F; Boshell, J; Camacho, T; Calderon, L; Olano, V A; Villarreal, L I; Roselli, D; Alvarez, G; Ludwig, G; Tsai, T

    1997-04-01

    In 1995, the first Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) outbreak in Colombia in 22 years caused an estimated 75,000 human cases, 3000 with neurologic complications and 300 fatal, in La Guajira State. Of the state's estimated 50,000 equines, 8% may have died. An epizootic IC virus, probably introduced from Venezuela, was rapidly amplified among unvaccinated equines. Record high rainfall, producing high densities of vector Aedes taeniorhynchus, led to extensive epidemic transmission (30% attack rate) in the four affected municipalities. Native Wayuu Indians, constituting 24% of the state's population, were at increased risk of infection (risk ratio, 3.3; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-5.3). Epidemiologic studies found no evidence of human-to-human transmission. A higher-than-expected number of abortions during the outbreak confirmed a previously suspected abortifacient role of VEE infection. Pesticide applications and a mass equine vaccination program contributed to preventing the outbreak's spread south of La Guajira.

  8. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  9. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  10. The dynamics, causes and possible prevention of Hepatitis E outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Betty Nannyonga

    Full Text Available Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that R0 is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least 16% and 17% respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of R0 for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks.

  11. Social network sensors for early detection of contagious outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakis, Nicholas A; Fowler, James H

    2010-09-15

    Current methods for the detection of contagious outbreaks give contemporaneous information about the course of an epidemic at best. It is known that individuals near the center of a social network are likely to be infected sooner during the course of an outbreak, on average, than those at the periphery. Unfortunately, mapping a whole network to identify central individuals who might be monitored for infection is typically very difficult. We propose an alternative strategy that does not require ascertainment of global network structure, namely, simply monitoring the friends of randomly selected individuals. Such individuals are known to be more central. To evaluate whether such a friend group could indeed provide early detection, we studied a flu outbreak at Harvard College in late 2009. We followed 744 students who were either members of a group of randomly chosen individuals or a group of their friends. Based on clinical diagnoses, the progression of the epidemic in the friend group occurred 13.9 days (95% C.I. 9.9-16.6) in advance of the randomly chosen group (i.e., the population as a whole). The friend group also showed a significant lead time (psensor method could provide significant additional time to react to epidemics in small or large populations under surveillance. The amount of lead time will depend on features of the outbreak and the network at hand. The method could in principle be generalized to other biological, psychological, informational, or behavioral contagions that spread in networks.

  12. Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cori, Anne; Donnelly, Christl A; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M; Fraser, Christophe; Garske, Tini; Jombart, Thibaut; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma; Nouvellet, Pierre; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mills, Harriet L; Blake, Isobel M

    2017-05-26

    Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessment is critical for guiding an effective public health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained in the West African Ebola epidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaks to set out a checklist of data needed to: (1) quantify severity and transmissibility; (2) characterize heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants; and (3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions. We differentiate data needs into individual-level data (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data (e.g. identifying where/how cases may have been infected) and population-level data (e.g. size/demographics of the population(s) affected and when/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposure data was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However, gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied when and where) posed challenges to the assessment of (3). Here we highlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressing these issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  13. Ebola viral hemorrhagic disease outbreak in West Africa- lessons from Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbonye, Anthony K; Wamala, Joseph F; Nanyunja, Miriam; Opio, Alex; Makumbi, Issa; Aceng, Jane Ruth

    2014-09-01

    There has been a rapid spread of Ebola Viral Hemorrhagic disease in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone since March 2014. Since this is the first time of a major Ebola outbreak in West Africa; it is possible there is lack of understanding of the epidemic in the communities, lack of experience among the health workers to manage the cases and limited capacities for rapid response. The main objective of this article is to share Uganda's experience in controlling similar Ebola outbreaks and to suggest some lessons that could inform the control of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. The article is based on published papers, reports of previous Ebola outbreaks, response plans and experiences of individuals who have participated in the control of Ebola epidemics in Uganda. Lessons learnt: The success in the control of Ebola epidemics in Uganda has been due to high political support, effective coordination through national and district task forces. In addition there has been active surveillance, strong community mobilization using village health teams and other community resources persons, an efficient laboratory system that has capacity to provide timely results. These have coupled with effective case management and infection control and the involvement of development partners who commit resources with shared responsibility. Several factors have contributed to the successful quick containment of Ebola outbreaks in Uganda. West African countries experiencing Ebola outbreaks could draw some lessons from the Uganda experience and adapt them to contain the Ebola epidemic.

  14. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  15. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  16. Rubella outbreak and outbreak management in a school setting, China, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Caiyun; Ma, Huilai; Liang, Wenjia; Hu, Pei; Mo, Xianghuan; An, Zhijie; Zheng, Huizhen

    2017-04-03

    An active response to a rubella outbreak may interrupt disease transmission, and outbreak response immunization (ORI) can increase immunity among persons who might otherwise not be protected. On March 17, 2014, a rubella outbreak was reported in a middle school in Guangzhou city, China. We conducted an investigation to assess impact of a policy of exclusion of cases from school and of ORI. Active surveillance was used to find cases of rubella. Investigators interviewed teachers and reviewed the absentee records to determine implementation details of school exclusion. ORI was recommended on 2 occasions during the outbreak, one small-scale and one large-scale. Laboratory confirmation tests included serum IgM and IgG measurements to distinguish between acute infection and immunity. A serological survey in 4 classes was used to determine immunity status and identify symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. From February 17 to May 23, 2014, 162 rubella cases (24 laboratory-confirmed and 138 epidemiologically linked) were detected among 1,621 students. Cases ultimately occurred in 27 classes (72.97%) across 37 classes. In 11 classes in which exclusion from school was delayed by 1 or more days, the secondary attack rate was 12.30%, compared with 2.35% in 15 classes with immediate exclusion. ORI increased vaccine coverage from 25.83 % to 86.92%, and the final case of the epidemic was reported one month later. A serological survey of 91 students in 4 classes identified 15 cases, 6 of which were asymptomatic. The outbreak happened in school with low rubella-containing vaccination coverage. Exclusion from school upon rash/fever onset was associated with lowering the secondary attack rate, but school exclusion alone was not able to stop this outbreak - a large ORI was needed. Assuring complete vaccination upon entry to school is likely to be necessary to ensure coverage is above the herd immunity threshold and prevent outbreaks from happening.

  17. Lessons about Causes and Management of an Ebola Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elargoubi Aida

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Ebola virus disease (EVD is one of the deadliest viral diseases. It is characterized by a high mortality rate due to the lack of effective and safe treatments or vaccines and its ability to spread at an unstoppable pace. The West Africa outbreak ended but the disease may strike again at any time. The latest epidemic was, by far, the deadliest to date. The most concern was why this outbreak was so different from the previous ones. We proposed in this review firstly to summarize the principal causes of its unprecedented spread and secondly to identify the steps for an effective management approach of a future Ebola outbreak. Attributes of the affected populations and insufficient control efforts were the main reasons of its amplification. This was complicated by a delayed international response. The health crisis was ignored for months until it got out of control. The management of Ebola presents a multitude of challenges in terms of preparedness and capacity to face an outbreak. In addition to the need for adequate health care facilities, ongoing surveillance tools, appropriate training of health workers and raising population awareness, readiness requires a large scale and coordinated international intervention to support affected and at-risk nations, to intensify their response activities and to strengthen their capacities. Constant interventions after the outbreak are still needed to ensure that vital health and related service institutions in these countries are fully prepared to respond to an eminent epidemic.

  18. Lessons about Causes and Management of an Ebola Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elargoubi, Aida; Khelifa, Anis W Belhaj; Haddad, Ons; Mhalla, Salma; Sakly, Nabil; Mastouri, Maha

    2017-12-20

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) is one of the deadliest viral diseases. It is characterized by a high mortality rate due to the lack of effective and safe treatments or vaccines and its ability to spread at an unstoppable pace. The West Africa outbreak ended but the disease may strike again at any time. The latest epidemic was, by far, the deadliest to date. The most concern was why this outbreak was so different from the previous ones. We proposed in this review firstly to summarize the principal causes of its unprecedented spread and secondly to identify the steps for an effective management approach of a future Ebola outbreak. Attributes of the affected populations and insufficient control efforts were the main reasons of its amplification. This was complicated by a delayed international response. The health crisis was ignored for months until it got out of control. The management of Ebola presents a multitude of challenges in terms of preparedness and capacity to face an outbreak. In addition to the need for adequate health care facilities, ongoing surveillance tools, appropriate training of health workers and raising population awareness, readiness requires a large scale and coordinated international intervention to support affected and at-risk nations, to intensify their response activities and to strengthen their capacities. Constant interventions after the outbreak are still needed to ensure that vital health and related service institutions in these countries are fully prepared to respond to an eminent epidemic.

  19. Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Cholera during the First Year of the Epidemic in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Rebaudet, Stanislas; Barrais, Robert; Boncy, Jacques; Faucher, Benoit; Piarroux, Martine; Magloire, Roc; Thimothe, Gabriel; Piarroux, Renaud

    2013-01-01

    Background In October 2010, cholera importation in Haiti triggered an epidemic that rapidly proved to be the world's largest epidemic of the seventh cholera pandemic. To establish effective control and elimination policies, strategies rely on the analysis of cholera dynamics. In this report, we describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of cholera and the associated environmental factors. Methodology/Principal findings Cholera-associated morbidity and mortality data were prospectively collected at the commune level according to the World Health Organization standard definition. Attack and mortality rates were estimated and mapped to assess epidemic clusters and trends. The relationships between environmental factors were assessed at the commune level using multivariate analysis. The global attack and mortality rates were 488.9 cases/10,000 inhabitants and 6.24 deaths/10,000 inhabitants, respectively. Attack rates displayed a significantly high level of spatial heterogeneity (varying from 64.7 to 3070.9 per 10,000 inhabitants), thereby suggesting disparate outbreak processes. The epidemic course exhibited two principal outbreaks. The first outbreak (October 16, 2010–January 30, 2011) displayed a centrifugal spread of a damping wave that suddenly emerged from Mirebalais. The second outbreak began at the end of May 2011, concomitant with the onset of the rainy season, and displayed a highly fragmented epidemic pattern. Environmental factors (river and rice fields: p<0.003) played a role in disease dynamics exclusively during the early phases of the epidemic. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate that the epidemic is still evolving, with a changing transmission pattern as time passes. Such an evolution could have hardly been anticipated, especially in a country struck by cholera for the first time. These results argue for the need for control measures involving intense efforts in rapid and exhaustive case tracking. PMID:23593516

  20. Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl O.

    2014-03-01

    Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  1. Semiquantitative Decision Tools for FMD Emergency Vaccination Informed by Field Observations and Simulated Outbreak Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; AlKhamis, Mohammad; Boklund, Anette

    2017-01-01

    timely, objectively, and efficiently to risk managers and less technically inclined stakeholders about the potential of introducing FMD suppressive emergency vaccination. To explore the FFI principle with complementary field data, we analyzed the FMD outbreaks in Argentina in 2001, with the 17 affected...... provinces as the units of observation. Two different vaccination strategies were applied during this extended epidemic. In a series of 5,000 Danish simulated FMD epidemics, the numbers of outbreak herds at day 14 and at the end of the epidemics were estimated under different control strategies. To simplify...... and optimize the presentation of the resulting data for urgent decisions to be made by the risk managers, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, as well as the negative and positive predictive values, using a chosen day-14 outbreak number as predictor of the magnitude of the number of remaining post-day-14...

  2. Field observations during the Bluetongue serotype 8 epidemic in 2006 II. Morbidity and mortality rate, case fatality and clinical recovery in sheep and cattle in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Backx, A.; Mintiens, K.; Gerbier, G.; Staubach, C.; Hendrickx, G.; Spek, van der A.N.

    2008-01-01

    Data collected in the Netherlands during the Bluetongue serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic indicated that in outbreak cattle herds, predominantly dairy and nursing cows were clinically affected and not young stock, beef cattle, beef calves, or breeding animals. In outbreak sheep flocks, mainly ewes and ¿

  3. [The new administration approach of the National Health System: implications for internal medicine. The point of view of the internist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcon, G; Gardini, F; Voltan, G P

    1997-10-01

    The laws for the reform of the Italian National Health Service (502, 517) show marked bureaucratic and administrative patterns. The aim of these laws seems to be mainly a tight control of the health expenses instead of an improvement of health care. This choice is confirmed by the selection of indicators (DRG's) more fit for reimbursement rather than for quality assurance in health care. Moreover, these indicators are only a poor expression of the real medical status of the patients. The reform of the British NHS appears very similar to the Italian reform, mainly for the empowerment of managers to detriment of health professionals and of health care quality. The reforms designed with the collaboration of health workers may be more useful than the reforms based mainly upon bureaucratic principles. Only with this collaboration the double target of the reduction of health related costs and of the maintenance of an acceptable quality may be achieved. The professional associations and the academic world must be involved in the political and organisational choices related with health care, mainly in the fields of the setting of organisational standards and of the training of actual and future doctors. The model proposed is that of internal medicine as an example of the ideal set of skills useful for a mixed clinical and organisational task. The internists, used to the solution of complex clinical problems, may be the ideal candidates for the role of clinical managers.

  4. Reactive vaccination as a control strategy for pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in the African meningitis belt: Analysis of outbreak data from Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Laura V; Stuart, James M; Okot, Charles; Asiedu-Bekoe, Franklin; Afreh, Osei Kuffour; Fernandez, Katya; Ronveaux, Olivier; Trotter, Caroline L

    2018-01-20

    Streptococcus pneumoniae is increasingly recognised as an important cause of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. The World Health Organization sets guidelines for response to outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis, but there are no current guidelines for outbreaks where S. pneumoniae is implicated. We aimed to evaluate the impact of using a similar response to target outbreaks of vaccine-preventable pneumococcal meningitis in the meningitis belt. Here, we adapt a previous model of reactive vaccination for meningococcal outbreaks to estimate the potential impact of reactive vaccination in a recent pneumococcal meningitis outbreak in the Brong-Ahafo region of central Ghana using weekly line list data on all suspected cases over a period of five months. We determine the sensitivity and specificity of various epidemic thresholds and model the cases and deaths averted by reactive vaccination. An epidemic threshold of 10 suspected cases per 100,000 population per week performed the best, predicting large outbreaks with 100% sensitivity and more than 85% specificity. In this outbreak, reactive vaccination would have prevented a lower number of cases per individual vaccinated (approximately 15,300 doses per case averted) than previously estimated for meningococcal outbreaks. Since the burden of death and disability from pneumococcal meningitis is higher than that from meningococcal meningitis, there may still be merit in considering reactive vaccination for outbreaks of pneumococcal meningitis. More outbreak data are needed to refine our model estimates. Whatever policy is followed, we emphasize the importance of timely laboratory confirmation of suspected cases to enable appropriate decisions about outbreak response. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Great Basin insect outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara Bentz; Diane Alston; Ted Evans

    2008-01-01

    Outbreaks of native and exotic insects are important drivers of ecosystem dynamics in the Great Basin. The following provides an overview of range, forest, ornamental, and agricultural insect outbreaks occurring in the Great Basin and the associated management issues and research needs.

  6. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  7. Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The strength and efficacy of the responses depend upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a ne...

  8. Inter-laboratory study to characterize the detection of serum antibodies against porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandbygaard, Bertel; Lavazza, Antonio; Lelli, Davide

    2016-01-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused extensive economic losses to pig producers in many countries. It was recently introduced, for the first time, into North America and outbreaks have occurred again in multiple countries within Europe as well. To assess the properties of various dia...

  9. Manure treatment and natural inactivation of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    The outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) in North America has substantially impacted U.S. swine production in recent years. The virus it is easily transmitted among pigs and causes nearly 100% mortality in pre-weaned piglets. Because PEDv is an enteric virus spread via fecal-oral conta...

  10. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  11. Human angiostrongyliasis outbreak in Dali, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Lv

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several angiostrongyliasis outbreaks have been reported in recent years but the disease continues to be neglected in public health circles. We describe an outbreak in Dali, southwest China in order to highlight some key problems for the control of this helminth infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All available medical records of suspected angiostrongyliasis patients visiting hospitals in Dali in the period 1 October 2007-31 March 2008 were reviewed, and tentative diagnoses of varying strengths were reached according to given sets of criteria. Snails collected from local markets, restaurants and natural habitats were also screened for the presence of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 33 patients met criteria for infection, and 11 among them were classified as clinically confirmed. An additional eight patients were identified through a surveillance system put in operation in response to the outbreak. The epidemic lasted for 8 months with its peak in February 2008. Of the 33 patients, 97.0% complained of severe headache. 84.8% patients had high eosinophil cell counts either in the peripheral blood or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF. Three-quarters of the patients were treated with a combination of albendazole and corticosteroids, resulting in significantly improved overall conditions. Twenty-two patients reported the consumption of raw or undercooked snails prior to the onset of the symptoms, and approximately 1.0% of the Pomacea canaliculata snails on sale were found to be infected with A. cantonensis. The snails were also found in certain habitats around Dali but no parasites were detected in these populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The import and sale of infected P. canaliculata is the likely trigger for this angiostrongyliasis outbreak. Awareness of angiostrongyliasis must be raised, and standardized diagnosis and treatment are needed in order to provide clinicians with a guide to address this disease. Health education

  12. Human Angiostrongyliasis Outbreak in Dali, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Shan; Zhang, Yi; Chen, Shao-Rong; Wang, Li-Bo; Fang, Wen; Chen, Feng; Jiang, Jin-Yong; Li, Yuan-Lin; Du, Zun-Wei; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2009-01-01

    Background Several angiostrongyliasis outbreaks have been reported in recent years but the disease continues to be neglected in public health circles. We describe an outbreak in Dali, southwest China in order to highlight some key problems for the control of this helminth infection. Methodology/Principal Findings All available medical records of suspected angiostrongyliasis patients visiting hospitals in Dali in the period 1 October 2007–31 March 2008 were reviewed, and tentative diagnoses of varying strengths were reached according to given sets of criteria. Snails collected from local markets, restaurants and natural habitats were also screened for the presence of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 33 patients met criteria for infection, and 11 among them were classified as clinically confirmed. An additional eight patients were identified through a surveillance system put in operation in response to the outbreak. The epidemic lasted for 8 months with its peak in February 2008. Of the 33 patients, 97.0% complained of severe headache. 84.8% patients had high eosinophil cell counts either in the peripheral blood or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Three-quarters of the patients were treated with a combination of albendazole and corticosteroids, resulting in significantly improved overall conditions. Twenty-two patients reported the consumption of raw or undercooked snails prior to the onset of the symptoms, and approximately 1.0% of the Pomacea canaliculata snails on sale were found to be infected with A. cantonensis. The snails were also found in certain habitats around Dali but no parasites were detected in these populations. Conclusions/Significance The import and sale of infected P. canaliculata is the likely trigger for this angiostrongyliasis outbreak. Awareness of angiostrongyliasis must be raised, and standardized diagnosis and treatment are needed in order to provide clinicians with a guide to address this disease. Health education campaigns could

  13. The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-21

    While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks.

  14. Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Yan, Ping; Sleeman, Candace K; Mode, Charles J

    2012-02-07

    Use of the final size distribution of minor outbreaks for the estimation of the reproduction numbers of supercritical epidemic processes has yet to be considered. We used a branching process model to derive the final size distribution of minor outbreaks, assuming a reproduction number above unity, and applying the method to final size data for pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is a rare disease with only one documented major epidemic in a spatially limited setting. Because the final size distribution of a minor outbreak needs to be normalized by the probability of extinction, we assume that the dispersion parameter (k) of the negative-binomial offspring distribution is known, and examine the sensitivity of the reproduction number to variation in dispersion. Assuming a geometric offspring distribution with k=1, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.38). When less dispersed with k=2, the maximum likelihood estimate of the reproduction number was 1.14. These estimates agreed with those published from transmission network analysis, indicating that the human-to-human transmission potential of the pneumonic plague is not very high. Given only minor outbreaks, transmission potential is not sufficiently assessed by directly counting the number of offspring. Since the absence of a major epidemic does not guarantee a subcritical process, the proposed method allows us to conservatively regard epidemic data from minor outbreaks as supercritical, and yield estimates of threshold values above unity. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Yue; Bi, Dehua; Xie, Guigang; Jin, Yuan; Huang, Yong; Lin, Baihan; An, Xiaoping; Feng, Dan; Tong, Yigang

    2017-01-01

    We developed a dynamic forecasting model for Zika virus (ZIKV), based on real-time online search data from Google Trends (GTs). It was designed to provide Zika virus disease (ZVD) surveillance and detection for Health Departments, and predictive numbers of infection cases, which would allow them sufficient time to implement interventions. In this study, we found a strong correlation between Zika-related GTs and the cumulative numbers of reported cases (confirmed, suspected and total cases; p<0.001). Then, we used the correlation data from Zika-related online search in GTs and ZIKV epidemics between 12 February and 20 October 2016 to construct an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (0, 1, 3) for the dynamic estimation of ZIKV outbreaks. The forecasting results indicated that the predicted data by ARIMA model, which used the online search data as the external regressor to enhance the forecasting model and assist the historical epidemic data in improving the quality of the predictions, are quite similar to the actual data during ZIKV epidemic early November 2016. Integer-valued autoregression provides a useful base predictive model for ZVD cases. This is enhanced by the incorporation of GTs data, confirming the prognostic utility of search query based surveillance. This accessible and flexible dynamic forecast model could be used in the monitoring of ZVD to provide advanced warning of future ZIKV outbreaks.

  16. Trends of major disease outbreaks in the African region, 2003-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebede, Senait; Duales, Sambe; Yokouide, Allarangar; Alemu, Wondimagegnehu

    2010-03-01

    Communicable disease outbreaks cause millions of deaths throughout Sub-Saharan Africa each year. Most of the diseases causing epidemics in the region have been nearly eradicated or brought under control in other parts of the world. In recent years, considerable effort has been directed toward public health initiatives and strategies with a potential for significant impact in the fight against infectious diseases. In 1998, the World Health Organization African Regional Office (WHO/AFRO) launched the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy aimed at mitigating the impact of communicable diseases, including epidemic-prone diseases, through improving surveillance, laboratory confirmation and appropriate and timely public health interventions. Over the past decade, WHO and its partners have been providing technical and financial resources to African countries to strengthen epidemic preparedness and response (EPR) activities. This review examined the major epidemics reported to WHO/AFRO from 2003 to 2007. we conduct a review of documents and reports obtained from WHO/AFRO, WHO inter-country team, and partners and held meeting and discussions with key stakeholders to elicit the experiences of local, regional and international efforts against these epidemics to evaluate the lessons learned and to stimulate discussion on the future course for enhancing EPR. The most commonly reported epidemic outbreaks in Africa include: cholera, dysentery, malaria and hemorrhagic fevers (e.g. Ebola, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo fever and yellow fever). The cyclic meningococcal meningitis outbreak that affects countries along the "meningitis belt" (spanning Sub-Saharan Africa from Senegal and The Gambia to Kenya and Ethiopia) accounts for other major epidemics in the region. The reporting of disease outbreaks to WHO/AFRO has improved since the launch of the IDSR strategy in 1998. Although the epidemic trends for cholera showed a decline in case fatality rate (CFR

  17. Role of fomites in SARS transmission during the largest hospital outbreak in Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao, Shenglan; Li, Yuguo; Wong, Tze-wai; Hui, David S. C.

    2017-01-01

    The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) had a significant effect on global society in the early 2000s and the potential of its resurgence exists. Studies on the modes of transmission of SARS are limited though a number of outbreak studies have revealed the possible airborne route. To develop more specific and effective control strategies, we conducted a detailed mechanism-based investigation that explored the role of fomite transmission in the well-known Ward 8A outbreak. We ...

  18. Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiang-Sheng; Zhong, Luoyi

    2015-10-01

    Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.

  19. Outbreaks of nontuberculous mycobacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sood, Geeta; Parrish, Nikki

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this review is to summarize the emerging literature on nontuberculous mycobacteria outbreaks in healthcare settings. As our ability to identify mycobacterial species develops, we are better able to recognize epidemiologic connections and better understand the prevalence and importance of these outbreaks and pseudo-outbreaks in healthcare settings. The number of outbreaks related to nontuberculous outbreaks is increasing because of heightened awareness and better diagnostic tests for species level identification of mycobacteria. Outbreaks in healthcare settings have been related to cardiac surgery, plastic surgery, including medical tourism, colonized humidifiers and heater-cooler devices, imperfect disinfection, and hospital water sources. Mycobacteria have a predilection to form biofilms, are resistant to disinfection and are prevalent in hospital water systems. Patients with structural lung disease like cystic fibrosis patients are at particularly high risk for mycobacterial infection. It has been thought that acquisition in this patient population is from common environmental exposure; however, there is increasing evidence that transmission in this patient population can occur through either direct or indirect patient-to-patient spread. Mycobacteria outbreaks in healthcare settings have been underrecognized. As we identify additional clusters of infection with better diagnostic tools and heightened awareness, we will likely need better infection control practices to prevent infections in healthcare settings.

  20. Biosurveillance in outbreak investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaydos-Daniels, S Cornelia; Rojas Smith, Lucia; Farris, Tonya R

    2013-03-01

    Following the terrorist attacks of September 11 and the anthrax attacks in 2001, public health entities implemented automated surveillance systems based on disease syndromes for early detection of bioterror events and to increase timeliness of responses. Despite widespread adoption, syndromic surveillance systems' ability to provide early notification of outbreaks is unproven, and there is little documentation on their role in outbreak response. We hypothesized that biosurveillance is used in practice to augment classical outbreak investigations, and we used case studies conducted in 2007-08 to determine (1) which steps in outbreak investigations were best served by biosurveillance, and (2) which steps presented the greatest opportunities for improvement. The systems used in the case studies varied in how they functioned, and there were examples in which syndromic systems had identified outbreaks before other methods. Biosurveillance was used successfully for all steps of outbreak investigations. Key advantages of syndromic systems were sensitivity, timeliness, and flexibility and as a source of data for situational awareness. Limitations of biosurveillance were a lack of specificity, reliance on chief complaint data, and a lack of formal training for users. Linking syndromic data to triage notes and medical chart data would substantially increase the value of biosurveillance in the conduct of outbreak investigations and reduce the burden on health department staff.

  1. Virulence variation among epidemic and non-epidemic strains of Saint Louis encephalitis virus circulating in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Elisa Rivarola

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Saint Louis encephalitis virus caused an outbreak of febrile illness and encephalitis cases in Córdoba, Argentina, in 2005. During this outbreak, the strain CbaAr-4005 was isolated from Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes. We hypothesised that this epidemic variant would be more virulent in a mouse model than two other non-epidemic strains (78V-6507 and CorAn-9275 isolated under different epidemiological conditions. To test this hypothesis, we performed a biological characterisation in a murine model, including mortality, morbidity and infection percentages and lethal infection indices using the three strains. Mice were separated into age groups (7, 10 and 21-day-old mice and analysed after infection. The strain CbaAr-4005 was the most infective and lethal of the three variants, whereas the other two strains exhibited a decreasing mortality percentage with increasing animal age. The strain CbaAr-4005 produced the highest morbidity percentages and no significant differences among age groups were observed. The epidemic strain caused signs of illness in all inoculated animals and showed narrower ranges from the onset of symptoms than the other strains. CbaAr-4005 was the most virulent for Swiss albino mice. Our results highlight the importance of performing biological characterisations of arbovirus strains likely to be responsible for emerging or reemerging human diseases.

  2. An outbreak of suspected cutaneous leishmaniasis in Ghana: lessons learnt and preparation for future outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Boakye

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Human cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL has previously been reported in West Africa, but more recently, sporadic reports of CL have increased. Leishmania major has been identified from Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Three zymodemes (MON-26, MON-117, and MON-74, the most frequent have been found. The geographic range of leishmaniasis is limited by the sand fly vector, its feeding preferences, and its capacity to support internal development of specific species of Leishmania. The risk of acquiring CL has been reported to increase considerably with human activity and epidemics of CL have been associated with deforestation, road construction, wars, or other activities where humans intrude the habitat of the vector. In the Ho Municipality in the Volta Region of Ghana, a localised outbreak of skin ulcers, possibly CL, was noted in 2003 without any such documented activity. This outbreak was consistent with CL as evidenced using various methods including parasite identification, albeit, in a small number of patients with ulcers.This paper reports the outbreak in Ghana. The report does not address a single planned study but rather a compilation of data from a number of ad-hoc investigations in response to the outbreak plus observations and findings made by the authors. It acknowledges that a number of the observations need to be further clarified. What is the detailed epidemiology of the disease? What sparked the epidemic? Can it happen again? What was the causative agent of the disease, L. major or some other Leishmania spp.? What were the main vectors and animal reservoirs? What are the consequences for surveillance of the disease and the prevention of its reoccurrence when the communities see a self-healing disease and may not think it is important?

  3. Sverdlovsk Anthrax Outbreak: An Educational Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, S. J.; van der Vink, G.

    2002-05-01

    In April and May of 1979 an Anthrax epidemic broke out in the city of Sverdlovsk (now Ekaterinburg) in the former Soviet Union. Sixty-four people were reported to have died from the outbreak, although there is still debate concerning the actual number of victims. While Soviet officials initially attributed this outbreak to contaminated meat, the US Government maintained that the outbreak was due to a leakage from a biological weapons facility. We have created and implemented an undergraduate educational exercise based on the forensic analysis of this event. Students were provided case data of the victims, area satellite images and meteorological data. One goal of the exercise was for students to reconstruct the most probable scenario of events through valid inference based on the limited information and uncertainties associated with the data set. Another goal was to make students sensitive to issues of biological weapons and bioterrorism. The exercise was highly rated by students even before the events of September 11. There is a clear need to educate students, particularly in the sciences, to be aware of the signatures of terrorist activities. Evidence of terrorist activities is more likely to appear from unintended discoveries than from active intelligence gathering. We believe our national security can be enhanced by sensitizing those that monitor the natural environment to the signatures of terrorist activities through the types of educational exercises that we have developed.

  4. Large measles epidemic in the Netherlands, May 2013 to March 2014: changing epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woudenberg, Tom; van Binnendijk, Rob S; Sanders, Elisabeth A M; Wallinga, Jacco; de Melker, Hester E; Ruijs, Wilhelmina L M; Hahné, Susan J M

    2017-01-19

    Since the early 1990s, the Netherlands has experienced several large measles epidemics, in 1992-94, 1999-2000 and in 2013-14. These outbreaks mainly affected orthodox Protestants, a geographically clustered population with overall lower measles-mumps-rubella first dose (MMR-1) vaccination coverage (60%) than the rest of the country (> 95%). In the 2013-14 epidemic described here, which occurred between 27 May 2013 and 12 March 2014, 2,700 cases were reported. Several control measures were implemented including MMR vaccination for 6-14-month-olds and recommendations to reduce the risk in healthcare workers. The vast majority of reported cases were unvaccinated (94%, n = 2,539), mostly for religious reasons (84%, n = 2,135). The median age in the epidemic was 10 years, 4 years older than in the previous epidemic in 1999-2000. A likely explanation is that the inter-epidemic interval before the 2013-2014 epidemic was longer than the interval before the 1999-2000 epidemic. The size of the unvaccinated orthodox Protestant community is insufficient to allow endemic transmission of measles in the Netherlands. However, large epidemics are expected in the future, which is likely to interfere with measles elimination in the Netherlands and elsewhere. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

  5. Diphtheria outbreak with high mortality in northeastern Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besa, N C; Coldiron, M E; Bakri, A; Raji, A; Nsuami, M J; Rousseau, C; Hurtado, N; Porten, K

    2014-04-01

    SUMMARY A diphtheria outbreak occurred from February to November 2011 in the village of Kimba and its surrounding settlements, in Borno State, northeastern Nigeria. We conducted a retrospective outbreak investigation in Kimba village and the surrounding settlements to better describe the extent and clinical characteristics of this outbreak. Ninety-eight cases met the criteria of the case definition of diphtheria, 63 (64.3%) of whom were children aged diphtheria. None of the 98 cases received diphtheria antitoxin, penicillin, or erythromycin during their illness. The overall case-fatality ratio was 21.4%, and was highest in children aged 0-4 years (42.9%). Low rates of immunization, delayed clinical recognition of diphtheria and absence of treatment with antitoxin and appropriate antibiotics contributed to this epidemic and its severity.

  6. National Outbreak Reporting System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) is a web-based platform designed to support reporting to CDC by local, state, and territorial health departments in the...

  7. Outbreaks and Investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Who Gets Fungal Infections? People living with HIV/AIDS Organ Transplant Patients Cancer Patients Hospitalized Patients Stem Cell Transplant Patients Medications that Weaken Your Immune System Outbreaks Rhizopus Investigation CDC at Work Global Fungal Diseases Cryptococcal Meningitis ...

  8. Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to support the control of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fähnrich, C; Denecke, K; Adeoye, O O; Benzler, J; Claus, H; Kirchner, G; Mall, S; Richter, R; Schapranow, M P; Schwarz, N; Tom-Aba, D; Uflacker, M; Poggensee, G; Krause, G

    2015-03-26

    In the context of controlling the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD), the World Health Organization claimed that 'critical determinant of epidemic size appears to be the speed of implementation of rigorous control measures', i.e. immediate follow-up of contact persons during 21 days after exposure, isolation and treatment of cases, decontamination, and safe burials. We developed the Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to improve efficiency and timeliness of these measures. We used the Design Thinking methodology to systematically analyse experiences from field workers and the Ebola Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) after successful control of the EVD outbreak in Nigeria. We developed a process model with seven personas representing the procedures of EVD outbreak control. The SORMAS system architecture combines latest In-Memory Database (IMDB) technology via SAP HANA (in-memory, relational database management system), enabling interactive data analyses, and established SAP cloud tools, such as SAP Afaria (a mobile device management software). The user interface consists of specific front-ends for smartphones and tablet devices, which are independent from physical configurations. SORMAS allows real-time, bidirectional information exchange between field workers and the EOC, ensures supervision of contact follow-up, automated status reports, and GPS tracking. SORMAS may become a platform for outbreak management and improved routine surveillance of any infectious disease. Furthermore, the SORMAS process model may serve as framework for EVD outbreak modeling.

  9. Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufnagel, L; Brockmann, D; Geisel, T

    2004-10-19

    The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics.

  10. Epidemic Increase in Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westh, Henrik; Boye, Kit; Bartels, Mette Damkjær

    2006-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We have found an epidemic increase in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Copenhagen. The increase has a complex background and involves hospitals, nursing homes and persons nursed in their own home. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We found 33 MRSA patients in 2003 and 121...... in 2004. All isolates have been spa-typed and epidemiologic information collected. RESULTS: The number of MRSA cases has a doubling time of about six months. The epidemic has been caused by many different MRSA types and 31 staphylococcus protein A genotypes (spa types). MRSA has caused several hospital...... outbreaks and is endemic in 10 nursing homes. Five staff members from nursing homes have been infected with MRSA. MRSA commonly causes skin and soft tissue infections (76%), but serious infections such as septicaemia and pneumonia are also found. CONCLUSION: Treatment of MRSA-infected patients is costly due...

  11. Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks from partial observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo Bindi

    Full Text Available The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief Propagation was proved to be a reliable and efficient method to identify the origin of an observed epidemics. Here we show that the same method can be applied to predict the future evolution of an epidemic outbreak from partial observations at the early stage of the dynamics. The results obtained using Belief Propagation are compared with Monte Carlo direct sampling in the case of SIR model on random (regular and power-law graphs for different observation methods and on an example of real-world contact network. Belief Propagation gives in general a better prediction that direct sampling, although the quality of the prediction depends on the quantity under study (e.g. marginals of individual states, epidemic size, extinction-time distribution and on the actual number of observed nodes that are infected before the observation time.

  12. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  13. [Epidemic of rubella encephalitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Achour, N; Benrhouma, H; Rouissi, A; Touaiti, H; Kraoua, I; Turki, I; Gouider-Khouja, N

    2013-08-01

    Rubella is a mild viral illness in children. Rubella encephalitis is an extremely uncommon complication of rubella affecting unvaccinated children, aged between 5 and 14 years. From May to June 2011, we observed 9 cases of rubella encephalitis diagnosed during an epidemic of rubella. All were previously healthy (8 boys and 1 girl). None of them had received rubella vaccine. The mean age was 11.6 years. The onset of neurological symptoms occurred within 1-5 days after the typical rush and was associated with seizures and altered consciousness in all cases. The presence of serum immunoglobulin M antibody against rubella virus was demonstrated in all patients. EEGs showed slow wave activity in all patients and brain MRI was normal in the 9 cases. Full recovery was obtained in all patients. However, 4 of them required intensive care unit referral. Acute encephalitis is an extremely rare complication of rubella. The main neurological findings are headache, ataxia, and hemiplegia. Epileptic seizure and altered consciousness are rarely observed. Rubella encephalitis is generally self-limiting with about 80% recovery rate with no sequelae. However, severe courses have been reported. These cases illustrated the potential severity of rubella and they should be prevented by encouraging widespread early childhood vaccination. In Tunisia, rubella encephalitis has been reported once previously and vaccination against rubella virus has only recently been included in the national vaccination program, prescribed only for adolescent females. Following this rubella epidemic, vaccination strategies in Tunisia have been revised. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  14. Statistical techniques for the characterization of partially observed epidemics.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safta, Cosmin; Ray, Jaideep; Crary, David (Applied Research Associates, Inc, Arlington, VA); Cheng, Karen (Applied Research Associates, Inc, Arlington, VA)

    2010-11-01

    Techniques appear promising to construct and integrate automated detect-and-characterize technique for epidemics - Working off biosurveillance data, and provides information on the particular/ongoing outbreak. Potential use - in crisis management and planning, resource allocation - Parameter estimation capability ideal for providing the input parameters into an agent-based model, Index Cases, Time of Infection, infection rate. Non-communicable diseases are easier than communicable ones - Small anthrax can be characterized well with 7-10 days of data, post-detection; plague takes longer, Large attacks are very easy.

  15. SIS and SIR Epidemic Models Under Virtual Dispersal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bichara, Derdei; Kang, Yun; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Horan, Richard; Perrings, Charles

    2015-11-01

    We develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure contact rates that are used in the traditional multi-group epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing. We apply this approach to a general n-patch SIS model whose basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed as a function of a patch residence-time matrix [Formula: see text]. Our analysis implies that the resulting n-patch SIS model has robust dynamics when patches are strongly connected: There is a unique globally stable endemic equilibrium when [Formula: see text], while the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable when [Formula: see text]. Our further analysis indicates that the dispersal behavior described by the residence-time matrix [Formula: see text] has profound effects on the disease dynamics at the single patch level with consequences that proper dispersal behavior along with the local environmental risk can either promote or eliminate the endemic in particular patches. Our work highlights the impact of residence-time matrix if the patches are not strongly connected. Our framework can be generalized in other endemic and disease outbreak models. As an illustration, we apply our framework to a two-patch SIR single-outbreak epidemic model where the process of disease invasion is connected to the final epidemic size relationship. We also explore the impact of disease-prevalence-driven decision using a phenomenological modeling approach in order to contrast the role of constant versus state-dependent [Formula: see text] on disease dynamics.

  16. [Model to estimate epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro-Robles, Estela; Martínez-Matsushita, Louis; López-Molina, Rubén; Fritz-Hernández, Jimena; Flores-Aldana, Bárbara Aida; Mendoza-Pérez, Juan Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Apply a mathematical model to estimate the epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico during the stages of application and suspension of measures to mitigate the epidemic. The effective reproductive number (R) for each state of Mexico during and after the application of social distancing measures was estimated by the SIR model (susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals) based on data published by the Ministry of Health of Mexico. From the beginning of the outbreak until suspension of school activities (28 April-13 May 2009), the national median of R was 1.13. In the following period (14 May-17 July 2009) the national median of R decreased to 1.01. It was demonstrated that several epidemic scenarios occurred at the national level. It is suggested that heterogeneous patterns at the state level be taken into account in decision-making on the adoption of measures to mitigate influenza epidemics.

  17. Tracking and predicting hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in China by Baidu queries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Q Y; Liu, H J; Feldman, M W

    2017-06-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is highly prevalent in China, and more efficient methods of epidemic detection and early warning need to be developed to augment traditional surveillance systems. In this paper, a method that uses Baidu search queries to track and predict HFMD epidemics is presented, and the outbreaks of HFMD in China during the 60-month period from January 2011 to December 2015 are predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient (R) of the predictive model and the mean absolute percentage errors between observed HFMD case counts and the predicted number show that our predictive model gives excellent fit to the data. This implies that Baidu search queries can be used in China to track and reliably predict HFMD epidemics, and can serve as a supplement to official systems for HFMD epidemic surveillance.

  18. Nosocomial outbreak of Serratia marcescens in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit: what to do not to close the unit when cohorting is not enough

    OpenAIRE

    Lorenza Pugni; Rosaria Maria Colombo; Mariella Falbo; Marina Casartelli; Beatrice Ghirardi; Simona Perniciaro; Carlo Pietrasanta; Andrea Ronchi; Ilaria Amodeo; Maria Laura Garlaschi

    2014-01-01

    Background. Serratia marcescens, a Gram-negative organism, is a well-recognized nosocomial pathogen, especially in Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICUs). Even if multiple point sources have been identified, the source of an outbreak often remains unknown. Because an outbreak of S. marcescens can spread rapidly, closing the Unit sometimes is necessary. Here, we report on an outbreak of S. marcescens occurred in our NICU and describe the control measures taken to stop the epidemic without closi...

  19. Meningitis Outbreak in Jos: A Report of 29 Cases seen in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background/Purpose: The sudden upsurge in cases of meningitis noted in our Emergency Paediatrics Unit was the stimulus for keeping track of the cases presented in this write up. Epidemics and sectarian crises is a well known phenomenon. We present our findings of meningitis outbreak in Jos North LGA coming after ...

  20. The Merits of Malaria Diagnostics during an Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wit, Emmie; Falzarano, Darryl; Onyango, Clayton; Rosenke, Kyle; Marzi, Andrea; Ochieng, Melvin; Juma, Bonventure; Fischer, Robert J; Prescott, Joseph B; Safronetz, David; Omballa, Victor; Owuor, Collins; Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Zemtsova, Galina; Self, Joshua; Bushmaker, Trenton; McNally, Kristin; Rowe, Thomas; Emery, Shannon L; Feldmann, Friederike; Williamson, Brandi; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Grolla, Allen; Strong, James E; Kobinger, Gary; Stroeher, Ute; Rayfield, Mark; Bolay, Fatorma K; Zoon, Kathryn C; Stassijns, Jorgen; Tampellini, Livia; de Smet, Martin; Nichol, Stuart T; Fields, Barry; Sprecher, Armand; Feldmann, Heinz; Massaquoi, Moses; Munster, Vincent J

    2016-02-01

    Malaria is a major public health concern in the countries affected by the Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa. We determined the feasibility of using molecular malaria diagnostics during an Ebola virus disease outbreak and report the incidence of Plasmodium spp. parasitemia in persons with suspected Ebola virus infection.

  1. Outbreak of avian influenza H7N3 on a turkey farm in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velkers, F.C.; Bouma, A.; Matthijs, M.G.R.; Koch, G.; Westendorp, S.T.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    This case report describes the course of an outbreak of avian influenza on a Dutch turkey farm. When clinical signs were observed their cause remained unclear. However, serum samples taken for the monitoring campaign launched during the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2003, showed

  2. Rubella: Current Status, Diagnosis, Outbreak Control, and Use of Rubella Vaccine in Females of Childbearing Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preblud, Stephen R.

    1984-01-01

    Widespread rubella vaccination of young children with a secondary emphasis on vaccinating susceptible adolescents and young adults has prevented epidemics of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome. Benefits of ensuring high immunity levels in college students, quick response to disease outbreak, and safety and efficacy of rubella vaccine in this…

  3. Toward a Practical Technique to Halt Multiple Virus Outbreaks on Computer Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hole, Kjell Jørgen

    2012-01-01

    The author analyzes a technique to prevent multiple simultaneous virus epidemics on any vulnerable computer network with inhomogeneous topology. The technique immunizes a small fraction of the computers and utilizes diverse software platforms to halt the virus outbreaks. The halting technique is of practical interest since a network's detailed topology need not be known.

  4. European outbreak of Salmonella Strathcona caused by small tomatoes, August – November 2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Luise; Kjelsoe, Charlotte; Frank, Christina

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In September 2011 a small cluster of Salmonella Strathcona was identified in Denmark. An urgent inquiry was posted on the Epidemic Intelligence Information System (EPIS) for the Food and Waterborne Disease Network and cases were reported from Germany and Austria. An outbreak...

  5. The role of mass media in disease outbreak reporting in the United ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The disease that received the highest coverage was cholera. Cholera outbreaks were frequently reported from the 3 districts in Dar es Salaam Region. Other epidemic-prone diseases received very little coverage. These included meningitis and rabies. With globalisation and high technological information systems, reports ...

  6. Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS Outbreaks on the Use of Emergency Department Medical Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Cheng Huang

    2005-06-01

    Conclusion: The SARS outbreak did not eliminate the need of critically ill patients for advanced medical support. However, besides an overall decrease in patient numbers, the SARS epidemic markedly altered demographic information, clinical characteristics, and the use of medical services by adult patients in the ED of a SARS-dedicated hospital.

  7. Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrian J. Duehl; Frank H. Koch; Fred P. Hain

    2011-01-01

    The southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) is the major insect pest of pine species in the southeastern United States. It attains outbreak population levels sufficient to mass attack host pines across the landscape at scales ranging from a single forest stand to interstate epidemics. This county level analysis selected and examined the best climatic and...

  8. An outbreak of gastroenteritis due to Escherichia coli 0142 H6 in a neonatal department

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerards, L. J.; Hennekam, R. C.; von Dijk, W. C.; Roord, J. J.; Fleer, A.

    1984-01-01

    An outbreak of gastroenteritis due to Escherichia coli 0142 H6 in a neonatal ward is described. The epidemic affected 16 of 24 infants (infection-rate 66 per cent), of whom one died due to necrotizing enterocolitis. Administration of antibiotics was of limited value in treatment or in eradicating E.

  9. Strategies for Early Outbreak Detection of Malaria in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekorchuk, D.; Gebrehiwot, T.; Mihretie, A.; Awoke, W.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Traditional epidemiological approaches to early detection of disease outbreaks are based on relatively straightforward thresholds (e.g. 75th percentile, standard deviations) estimated from historical case data. For diseases with strong seasonality, these can be modified to create separate thresholds for each seasonal time step. However, for disease processes that are non-stationary, more sophisticated techniques are needed to more accurately estimate outbreak threshold values. Early detection for geohealth-related diseases that also have environmental drivers, such as vector-borne diseases, may also benefit from the integration of time-lagged environmental data and disease ecology models into the threshold calculations. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) project has been integrating malaria case surveillance with remotely-sensed environmental data for early detection, warning, and forecasting of malaria epidemics in the Amhara region of Ethiopia, and has five years of weekly time series data from 47 woredas (districts). Efforts to reduce the burden of malaria in Ethiopia has been met with some notable success in the past two decades with major reduction in cases and deaths. However, malaria remains a significant public health threat as 60% of the population live in malarious areas, and due to the seasonal and unstable transmission patterns with cyclic outbreaks, protective immunity is generally low which could cause high morbidity and mortality during the epidemics. This study compared several approaches for defining outbreak thresholds and for identifying a potential outbreak based on deviations from these thresholds. We found that model-based approaches that accounted for climate-driven seasonality in malaria transmission were most effective, and that incorporating a trend component improved outbreak detection in areas with active malaria elimination efforts. An advantage of these early

  10. Multiple origins of outbreak populations of a native insect pest in an agro-ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, T; Sakurai, T; Sakakibara, M; Watanabe, T

    2011-06-01

    Native insects can become epidemic pests in agro-ecosystems. A population genetics approach was applied to analyze the emergence and spread of outbreak populations of native insect species. Outbreaks of the mirid bug, Stenotus rubrovittatus, have rapidly expanded over Japan within the last two decades. To characterize the outbreak dynamics of this species, the genetic structure of local populations was assessed using polymorphisms of the mtDNA COI gene and six microsatellite loci. Results of the population genetic analysis suggested that S. rubrovittatus populations throughout Japan were genetically isolated by geographic distance and separated into three genetic clusters occupying spatially segregated regions. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the genetic structure of S. rubrovittatus reflected post-glacial colonization. Early outbreaks of S. rubrovittatus in the 1980s occurred independently of genetically isolated populations. The genetic structure of the populations did not fit the pattern of an outbreak expansion, and therefore the data did not support the hypothesis that extensive outbreaks were caused by the dispersal of specific pestiferous populations. Rather, the historical genetic structure prior to the outbreaks was maintained throughout the increase in abundance of the mirid bug. Our study indicated that changes in the agro-environment induced multiple outbreaks of native pest populations. This implies that, given suitable environmental conditions, local populations may have the potential to outbreak even without invasion of populations from other environmentally degraded areas.

  11. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-06-01

    A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission, refine existing transmission models, and improve disease forecasts. We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. We test the model against empirical outbreak data representing a variety of viral pathogens in historic and contemporary populations, and provide simulations highlighting the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes. We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p=0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014)) to near exponential (p>0.9 for the smallpox outbreak in Khulna (1972), and the 1918 pandemic influenza in San Francisco). The foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Uruguay displayed a profile of slower growth while the growth pattern of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan was approximately linear. The West African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level outbreaks revealed substantial growth variations (mean p=0.59, range: 0.14-0.97). The districts of Margibi in Liberia and Bombali and Bo in Sierra Leone had near-exponential growth, while the districts of Bomi in Liberia and Kenema in Sierra Leone displayed near constant incidences. Our findings reveal significant variation in epidemic growth patterns across different infectious disease outbreaks and highlights that sub-exponential growth is a common phenomenon, especially for pathogens that are not airborne. Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes, or the early onset of interventions strategies

  12. An outbreak of Ebola in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okware, S I; Omaswa, F G; Zaramba, S; Opio, A; Lutwama, J J; Kamugisha, J; Rwaguma, E B; Kagwa, P; Lamunu, M

    2002-12-01

    An outbreak of Ebola disease was reported from Gulu district, Uganda, on 8 October 2000. The outbreak was characterized by fever and haemorrhagic manifestations, and affected health workers and the general population of Rwot-Obillo, a village 14 km north of Gulu town. Later, the outbreak spread to other parts of the country including Mbarara and Masindi districts. Response measures included surveillance, community mobilization, case and logistics management. Three coordination committees were formed: National Task Force (NTF), a District Task Force (DTF) and an Interministerial Task Force (IMTF). The NTF and DTF were responsible for coordination and follow-up of implementation of activities at the national and district levels, respectively, while the IMTF provided political direction and handled sensitive issues related to stigma, trade, tourism and international relations. The international response was coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO) under the umbrella organization of the Global Outbreak and Alert Response Network. A WHO/CDC case definition for Ebola was adapted and used to capture four categories of cases, namely, the 'alert', 'suspected', 'probable' and 'confirmed cases'. Guidelines for identification and management of cases were developed and disseminated to all persons responsible for surveillance, case management, contact tracing and Information Education Communication (IEC). For the duration of the epidemic that lasted up to 16 January 2001, a total of 425 cases with 224 deaths were reported countrywide. The case fatality rate was 53%. The attack rate (AR) was highest in women. The average AR for Gulu district was 12.6 cases/10 000 inhabitants when the contacts of all cases were considered and was 4.5 cases/10 000 if limited only to contacts of laboratory confirmed cases. The secondary AR was 2.5% when nearly 5000 contacts were followed up for 21 days. Uganda was finally declared Ebola free on 27 February 2001, 42 days after the last case

  13. Spatio-temporal modelling of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malesios, C; Demiris, N; Kostoulas, P; Dadousis, K; Koutroumanidis, T; Abas, Z

    2016-09-01

    We present and analyse data collected during a severe epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that occurred between July and September 2000 in a region of northeastern Greece with strategic importance since it represents the southeastern border of Europe and Asia. We implement generic Bayesian methodology, which offers flexibility in the ability to fit several realistically complex models that simultaneously capture the presence of 'excess' zeros, the spatio-temporal dependence of the cases, assesses the impact of environmental noise and controls for multicollinearity issues. Our findings suggest that the epidemic was mostly driven by the size and the animal type of each farm as well as the distance between farms while environmental and other endemic factors were not important during this outbreak. Analyses of this kind may prove useful to informing decisions related to optimal control measures for potential future FMD outbreaks as well as other acute epidemics such as FMD.

  14. Considerations for Oral Cholera Vaccine Use during Outbreak after Earthquake in Haiti, 2010−2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicari, Andrea; Hyde, Terri B.; Mintz, Eric; Danovaro-Holliday, M. Carolina; Henry, Ariel; Tappero, Jordan W.; Roels, Thierry H.; Abrams, Joseph; Burkholder, Brenton T.; Ruiz-Matus, Cuauhtémoc; Andrus, Jon; Dietz, Vance

    2011-01-01

    Oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been recommended in cholera-endemic settings and preemptively during outbreaks and complex emergencies. However, experience and guidelines for reactive use after an outbreak has started are limited. In 2010, after over a century without epidemic cholera, an outbreak was reported in Haiti after an earthquake. As intensive nonvaccine cholera control measures were initiated, the feasibility of OCV use was considered. We reviewed OCV characteristics and recommendations for their use and assessed global vaccine availability and capacity to implement a vaccination campaign. Real-time modeling was conducted to estimate vaccine impact. Ultimately, cholera vaccination was not implemented because of limited vaccine availability, complex logistical and operational challenges of a multidose regimen, and obstacles to conducting a campaign in a setting with population displacement and civil unrest. Use of OCVs is an option for cholera control; guidelines for their appropriate use in epidemic and emergency settings are urgently needed. PMID:22099114

  15. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuchun Cao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two areas: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing with its surrounding areas. Reanalysis of all available epidemiological data resulted in a total of 5327 probable cases of SARS, of whom 343 died. The resulting case fatality ratio (CFR of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries or areas, and this difference could only partly be explained by younger age of patients and higher number of community acquired infections. Analysis of the impact of interventions demonstrated that strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response was the most important factor to control SARS in mainland China, whereas the most stringent control measures were all initiated when the epidemic was already dying down. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited, much consumption was merely postponed, but for Beijing irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector were considerable. An important finding from a cohort study was that many former SARS patients currently suffer from avascular osteo­necrosis, as a consequence of the treatment with corticosteroids during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable information and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of newly emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. In particular, a comprehensive nation-wide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

  16. Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Zhu, Guanghu; He, Jianfeng; Song, Tie; Zhang, Meng; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Xie, Runsheng; Zhong, Haojie; Wu, Xiaocheng; Hu, Wenbiao; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

    2017-08-02

    Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration.

  17. OmpU as a biomarker for rapid discrimination between toxigenic and epidemic Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 and non-epidemic Vibrio cholerae in a modified MALDI-TOF MS assay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paauw, A.; Trip, H.; Niemcewicz, M.; Sellek, R.; Heng, J.M.E.; Mars-Groenendijk, R.H.; Jong, A.L. de; Majchrzykiewicz-Koehorst, J.A.; Olsen, J.S.; Tsivtsivadze, E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks are caused by a genetically homogenous group of strains from serogroup O1 or O139 that are able to produce the cholera toxin. Rapid detection and identification of these epidemic strains is essential for an

  18. Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2017-01-01

    The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international...... changes and case clustering; (3) challenges in forecasting the long-term epidemic impact very early in the outbreak; and (4) ways to move forward. We conclude that rapid availability of aggregated population-level data and detailed information on a subset of transmission chains is crucial to characterize...

  19. Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christenson, Bernard

    2008-01-01

    Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.

  20. A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajisegiri, Whenayon Simeon; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; MacIntyre, C Raina

    2018-03-01

    The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garza, D.R.; Thompson, C.C.; Loureiro, E.C.; Dutilh, B.E.; Inada, D.T.; Junior, E.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Nunes, M.R.; Lima, C.P. de; Silvestre, R.V.; Nunes, K.N.; Santos, E.C.; Edwards, R.A.; Vicente, A.C.; Sa Morais, L.L. de

    2012-01-01

    The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic

  2. Responding to Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-04-27

    In this podcast, a team of CDC specialists travels to Uganda and tracks the source of an Ebola outbreak where CDC scientists are studying bats for clues to the Ebola mystery.  Created: 4/27/2009 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 4/27/2009.

  3. Swimming Associated Disease Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabelli, V. J.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of recreational waterborne outbreaks and cases of disease, covering publications of 1976-77. This review includes: (1) retrospective and prospective epidemiological studies; (2) predictive models of the risk of recreational waterborn disease. A list of 35 references is also presented. (HM)

  4. Investigating Listeria Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-01-04

    Dr. Emily Cartwright, Infectious Disease fellow at Emory University and former EIS Officer with CDC’s Division of Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases discusses foodborne Listeria outbreaks.  Created: 1/4/2013 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 1/8/2013.

  5. Foodborne Norovirus Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-09-17

    Dr. Aron Hall, a CDC epidemiologist specializing in noroviruses, discusses foodborne norovirus outbreaks.  Created: 9/17/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID); National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/17/2012.

  6. Forecasting rodent outbreaks in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leirs, Herwig; Verhagen, Ron; Verheyen, Walter

    1996-01-01

    1. Rainfall data were collated for years preceding historical outbreaks of Mastomys rats in East Africa in order to test the hypothesis that such outbreaks occur after long dry periods. 2. Rodent outbreaks were generally not preceded by long dry periods. 3. Population dynamics of Mastomys...

  7. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  8. Exploring Genomic, Geographic and Virulence Interactions among Epidemic and Non-Epidemic St. Louis Encephalitis Virus (Flavivirus Strains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A Diaz

    Full Text Available St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV is a re-emerging arbovirus in South America. In 2005, an encephalitis outbreak caused by SLEV was reported in Argentina. The reason for the outbreak remains unknown, but may have been related to virological factors, changes in vectors populations, avian amplifying hosts, and/or environmental conditions. The main goal of this study was to characterize the complete genome of epidemic and non-epidemic SLEV strains from Argentina. Seventeen amino acid changes were detected; ten were non-conservative and located in proteins E, NS1, NS3 and NS5. Phylogenetic analysis showed two major clades based on geography: the North America and northern Central America (NAnCA clade and the South America and southern Central America (SAsCA clade. Interestingly, the presence of SAsCA genotype V SLEV strains in the NAnCA clade was reported in California, Florida and Texas, overlapping with known bird migration flyways. This work represents the first step in understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying virulence and biological variation among SLEV strains.

  9. Core Genome Multilocus Sequence Typing for Identification of Globally Distributed Clonal Groups and Differentiation of Outbreak Strains of Listeria monocytogenes

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Yi; Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Hammack, Thomas S.; Allard, Marc W.; Strain, Errol A.; Brown, Eric W.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Many listeriosis outbreaks are caused by a few globally distributed clonal groups, designated clonal complexes or epidemic clones, of Listeria monocytogenes, several of which have been defined by classic multilocus sequence typing (MLST) schemes targeting 6 to 8 housekeeping or virulence genes. We have developed and evaluated core genome MLST (cgMLST) schemes and applied them to isolates from multiple clonal groups, including those associated with 39 listeriosis outbreaks. The cgMLST...

  10. 19th-century and early 20th-century jaundice outbreaks, the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, C G

    2018-01-01

    Historical enquiry into diseases with morbidity or mortality predilections for particular demographic groups can permit clarification of their emergence, endemicity, and epidemicity. During community-wide outbreaks of hepatitis A in the pre-vaccine era, clinical attack rates were higher among juveniles rather than adults. In community-wide hepatitis E outbreaks, past and present, mortality rates have been most pronounced among pregnant women. Examination for these characteristic predilections in reports of jaundice outbreaks in the USA traces the emergence of hepatitis A and also of hepatitis E to the closing three decades of the 19th century. Thereafter, outbreaks of hepatitis A burgeoned, whereas those of hepatitis E abated. There were, in addition, community-wide outbreaks that bore features of neither hepatitis A nor E; they occurred before the 1870s. The American Civil War antedated that period. If hepatitis A had yet to establish endemicity, then it would not underlie the jaundice epidemic that was widespread during the war. Such an assessment may be revised, however, with the discovery of more extant outbreak reports.

  11. Bayesian Reconstruction of Disease Outbreaks by Combining Epidemiologic and Genomic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jombart, Thibaut; Cori, Anne; Didelot, Xavier; Cauchemez, Simon; Fraser, Christophe; Ferguson, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees (“who infected whom”) from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments. PMID:24465202

  12. Integrating Remote Sensing and Disease Surveillance to Forecast Malaria Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Beyane, B.; DeVos, M.; Liu, Y.; Merkord, C. L.; Mihretie, A.

    2015-12-01

    Advance information about the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. Early detection methods can detect incipient outbreaks by identifying deviations from expected seasonal patterns, whereas early warning approaches typically forecast future malaria risk based on lagged responses to meteorological factors. A critical limiting factor for implementing either of these approaches is the need for timely and consistent acquisition, processing and analysis of both environmental and epidemiological data. To address this need, we have developed EPIDEMIA - an integrated system for surveillance and forecasting of malaria epidemics. The EPIDEMIA system includes a public health interface for uploading and querying weekly surveillance reports as well as algorithms for automatically validating incoming data and updating the epidemiological surveillance database. The newly released EASTWeb 2.0 software application automatically downloads, processes, and summaries remotely-sensed environmental data from multiple earth science data archives. EASTWeb was implemented as a component of the EPIDEMIA system, which combines the environmental monitoring data and epidemiological surveillance data into a unified database that supports both early detection and early warning models. Dynamic linear models implemented with Kalman filtering were used to carry out forecasting and model updating. Preliminary forecasts have been disseminated to public health partners in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia and will be validated and refined as the EPIDEMIA system ingests new data. In addition to continued model development and testing, future work will involve updating the public health interface to provide a broader suite of outbreak alerts and data visualization tools that are useful to our public health partners. The EPIDEMIA system demonstrates a feasible approach to synthesizing the information from epidemiological

  13. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  14. Infectious disease outbreaks and increased complexity of care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musau, J; Baumann, A; Kolotylo, C; O'Shea, T; Bialachowski, A

    2015-09-01

    This study examined the effects of healthcare-associated infectious disease outbreaks on nurses' work in a large acute care hospital in Ontario, Canada. The incidence of healthcare-associated infections has increased. Previous research focuses on epidemiology, healthcare systems, and the economic burden of outbreaks. Few published studies focus on the impact of outbreaks on nurses' work in acute care facilities. Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in 2003, combating infectious diseases has become a key issue. Hospitals have implemented measures related to healthcare-associated infections. However, nurses experience challenges in preventing, controlling, and contending with outbreaks. A retrospective exploratory case study approach was used. Data were collected over a 4-month period in 2012. The incidence rates of site-specific HAIs were analysed, and individual interviews were held with 23 bedside nurses and five nurse managers. Five themes emerged from the interviews: comparison of healthcare-associated infections outbreaks; the nature of nurses' work; impact of outbreaks on patient care; innovation and quality control in clinical practice; and increased and expanded IPAC measures. The incidence rates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium difficile and vancomycin-resistant enterococci at the study site decreased, but remained above provincial benchmarks. Nurses experienced workload challenges, time pressures and psychological effects stemming from outbreaks and developed various innovations in response. Patient care was also affected. Nurses' work has been impacted by healthcare-associated infectious disease outbreaks. Nursing workloads should be quantified to facilitate the development of guidelines for optimum nurse-patient ratio during outbreaks. A strong evidence-based policy framework is required to address healthcare-associated infectious disease outbreaks. Infection prevention and control guidelines and procedures

  15. Rapid decay in the relative efficiency of quarantine to halt epidemics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strona, Giovanni; Castellano, Claudio

    2018-02-01

    Several recent studies have tackled the issue of optimal network immunization by providing efficient criteria to identify key nodes to be removed in order to break apart a network, thus preventing the occurrence of extensive epidemic outbreaks. Yet, although the efficiency of those criteria has been demonstrated also in empirical networks, preventive immunization is rarely applied to real-world scenarios, where the usual approach is the a posteriori attempt to contain epidemic outbreaks using quarantine measures. Here we compare the efficiency of prevention with that of quarantine in terms of the tradeoff between the number of removed and saved nodes on both synthetic and empirical topologies. We show how, consistent with common sense, but contrary to common practice, in many cases preventing is better than curing: depending on network structure, rescuing an infected network by quarantine could become inefficient soon after the first infection.

  16. [Epidemics of conjunctivitis caused by avian influenza virus and molecular basis for its ocular tropism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chao; Jin, Ming

    2014-07-01

    Avian influenza virus (AIV) has caused several outbreaks in humans, leading to disasters to human beings. The outbreak of H7N9 avian influenza in China in 2003 re-attracted our close attention to this disease. More and more evidences demonstrated that eye is one of invasion portals of AIV, leading to conjunctivitis. The current studies showed that only subtypes H7 and H5 could cause severe systemic infections. Abundant distribution of α-2, 3 siliac acid receptor in conjunctiva and cornea as well as specific activiation of NF-κB signal transduction pathway by subtype H7 virus may contribute to the ocular tropism of the virus. These studies suggest that avian influenza conjunctivitis should be considered as a differential diagnosis during influenza epidemic seasons, and eyes should be well protected for disease control personnel when handling avian influenza epidemics. This review focused on AIV conjunctivitis and the molecular basis of ocular tropism.

  17. Epidemic spreading on hierarchical geographical networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xiao-Pu; Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Hadzibeganovic, Tarik; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2014-05-01

    Hierarchical geographical traffic networks are critical for our understanding of scaling laws in human trajectories. Here, we investigate the susceptible-infected epidemic process evolving on hierarchical networks in which agents randomly walk along the edges and establish contacts in network nodes. We employ a metapopulation modeling framework that allows us to explore the contagion spread patterns in relation to multi-scale mobility behaviors. A series of computer simulations revealed that a shifted power-law-like negative relationship between the peak timing of epidemics τ0 and population density, and a logarithmic positive relationship between τ0 and the network size, can both be explained by the gradual enlargement of fluctuations in the spreading process. We employ a semi-analytical method to better understand the nature of these relationships and the role of pertinent demographic factors. Additionally, we provide a quantitative discussion of the efficiency of a border screening procedure in delaying epidemic outbreaks on hierarchical networks, yielding a rather limited feasibility of this mitigation strategy but also its non-trivial dependence on population density, infector detectability, and the diversity of the susceptible region. Our results suggest that the interplay between the human spatial dynamics, network topology, and demographic factors can have important consequences for the global spreading and control of infectious diseases. These findings provide novel insights into the combined effects of human mobility and the organization of geographical networks on spreading processes, with important implications for both epidemiological research and health policy.

  18. Epidemic Modelling by Ripple-Spreading Network and Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Qin Liao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical analysis and modelling is central to infectious disease epidemiology. This paper, inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon, proposes a novel ripple-spreading network model for the study of infectious disease transmission. The new epidemic model naturally has good potential for capturing many spatial and temporal features observed in the outbreak of plagues. In particular, using a stochastic ripple-spreading process simulates the effect of random contacts and movements of individuals on the probability of infection well, which is usually a challenging issue in epidemic modeling. Some ripple-spreading related parameters such as threshold and amplifying factor of nodes are ideal to describe the importance of individuals’ physical fitness and immunity. The new model is rich in parameters to incorporate many real factors such as public health service and policies, and it is highly flexible to modifications. A genetic algorithm is used to tune the parameters of the model by referring to historic data of an epidemic. The well-tuned model can then be used for analyzing and forecasting purposes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by simulation results.

  19. Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

    2015-08-01

    One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

  20. Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Brauer

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birth defects.We formulate and analyze two epidemic models for vector-transmitted diseases, one appropriate for dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks and one that includes direct transmission appropriate for Zika virus outbreaks. This is especially important because the Zika virus is the first example of a disease that can be spread both indirectly through a vector and directly (through sexual contact. In both cases, we obtain expressions for the basic reproduction number and show how to use the initial exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number. However, for the model that includes direct transmission some additional data would be needed to identify the fraction of cases transmitted directly. Data for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia has been used to fit parameters to the model developed here and to estimate the basic reproduction number.

  1. Yellow fever cases in Asia: primed for an epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasserman, Sean; Tambyah, Paul Anantharajah; Lim, Poh Lian

    2016-07-01

    There is currently an emerging outbreak of yellow fever in Angola. Cases in infected travellers have been reported in a number of other African countries, as well as in China, representing the first ever documented cases of yellow fever in Asia. There is a large Chinese workforce in Angola, many of whom may be unvaccinated, increasing the risk of ongoing importation of yellow fever into Asia via busy commercial airline routes. Large parts of the region are hyperendemic for the related Flavivirus dengue and are widely infested by Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector of urban yellow fever transmission. The combination of sustained introduction of viraemic travellers, an ecology conducive to local transmission, and an unimmunized population raises the possibility of a yellow fever epidemic in Asia. This represents a major global health threat, particularly in the context of a depleted emergency vaccine stockpile and untested surveillance systems in the region. In this review, the potential for a yellow fever outbreak in Asia is discussed with reference to the ecological and historical forces that have shaped global yellow fever epidemiology. The limitations of surveillance and vector control in the region are highlighted, and priorities for outbreak preparedness and response are suggested. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Yellow fever cases in Asia: primed for an epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Wasserman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available There is currently an emerging outbreak of yellow fever in Angola. Cases in infected travellers have been reported in a number of other African countries, as well as in China, representing the first ever documented cases of yellow fever in Asia. There is a large Chinese workforce in Angola, many of whom may be unvaccinated, increasing the risk of ongoing importation of yellow fever into Asia via busy commercial airline routes. Large parts of the region are hyperendemic for the related Flavivirus dengue and are widely infested by Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector of urban yellow fever transmission. The combination of sustained introduction of viraemic travellers, an ecology conducive to local transmission, and an unimmunized population raises the possibility of a yellow fever epidemic in Asia. This represents a major global health threat, particularly in the context of a depleted emergency vaccine stockpile and untested surveillance systems in the region. In this review, the potential for a yellow fever outbreak in Asia is discussed with reference to the ecological and historical forces that have shaped global yellow fever epidemiology. The limitations of surveillance and vector control in the region are highlighted, and priorities for outbreak preparedness and response are suggested.

  3. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  4. Epidemic disease decimates amphibian abundance, species diversity, and evolutionary history in the highlands of central Panama

    OpenAIRE

    Crawford, Andrew J.; Lips, Karen R.; Bermingham, Eldredge

    2010-01-01

    Amphibian populations around the world are experiencing unprecedented declines attributed to a chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Despite the severity of the crisis, quantitative analyses of the effects of the epidemic on amphibian abundance and diversity have been unavailable as a result of the lack of equivalent data collected before and following disease outbreak. We present a community-level assessment combining long-term field surveys and DNA barcode data describing...

  5. A local outbreak of dengue caused by an imported case in Dongguan China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Hong-Juan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue, a mosquito-borne febrile viral disease, is found in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Since the first occurrence of dengue was confirmed in Guangdong, China in 1978, dengue outbreaks have been reported sequentially in different provinces in South China transmitted by.peridomestic Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, diplaying Ae. aegypti, a fully domestic vector that transmits dengue worldwide. Rapid and uncontrolled urbanization is a characteristic change in developing countries, which impacts greatly on vector habitat, human lifestyle and transmission dynamics on dengue epidemics. In September 2010, an outbreak of dengue was detected in Dongguan, a city in Guangdong province characterized by its fast urbanization. An investigation was initiated to identify the cause, to describe the epidemical characteristics of the outbreak, and to implement control measures to stop the outbreak. This is the first report of dengue outbreak in Dongguan, even though dengue cases were documented before in this city. Methods Epidemiological data were obtained from local Center of Disease Control and prevention (CDC. Laboratory tests such as real-time Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR, the virus cDNA sequencing, and Enzyme-Linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA were employed to identify the virus infection and molecular phylogenetic analysis was performed with MEGA5. The febrile cases were reported every day by the fever surveillance system. Vector control measures including insecticidal fogging and elimination of habitats of Ae. albopictus were used to control the dengue outbreak. Results The epidemiological studies results showed that this dengue outbreak was initiated by an imported case from Southeast Asia. The outbreak was characterized by 31 cases reported with an attack rate of 50.63 out of a population of 100,000. Ae. albopictus was the only vector species responsible for the outbreak. The virus c

  6. The epidemiology and socio-economic impact of Rift Valley fever epidemics in Tanzania: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calvin Sindato

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available A review was conducted to provide comprehensive update on Rift Valley fever (RVF in Tanzania, with particular attention devoted to trend of occurrence, epidemiological factors, socio-economic impact and measures which were applied to its control. Information presented in this paper was obtained through extensive literature review. Rift Valley fever was documented for the first time in Tanzania in 1977. This was followed by epidemics in 1997 and 2007. Contrary to the latest epidemic in 2007 sporadic cases of RVF during the previous epidemics were confined to mainly livestock and mostly affecting northern parts of Tanzania. The latest disease epidemic expanded to cover wider areas (mostly northern and central zones of the country involving both human and domestic ruminants. During the latest disease outbreak 52.4% (n = 21 of regions in Tanzania mainland were affected and majority (72.7, n = 11 of the regions had concurrent infections in human and animals. Phylogenetic comparison of nucleotide and amimo acid sequences revealed different virus strains between Kenya and Tanzania. Epidemiological factors that were considered responsible for the previous RVF epidemics in Tanzania included farming systems, climatic factors, vector activities and presence of large population of ruminant species, animal movements and food consumption habits. Majority of the RVF positive cases in the latest epidemic were livestock under pastoral and agro-pastoral farming systems. The disease caused serious effects on rural people’s food security and household nutrition and on direct and indirect losses to livestock producers in the country. Psycho-social distress that communities went through was enormous, which involved the thinking about the loss of their family members and/or relatives, their livestock and crop production. Socially, the status of most livestock producers was eroded in their communities. Cessation of lucrative trade in ruminants resulted in serious

  7. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  8. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  9. Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor; Tatem, Andrew J; Baele, Guy; Faria, Nuno R; Park, Daniel J; Ladner, Jason T; Arias, Armando; Asogun, Danny; Bielejec, Filip; Caddy, Sarah L; Cotten, Matthew; D'Ambrozio, Jonathan; Dellicour, Simon; Di Caro, Antonino; Diclaro, Joseph W; Duraffour, Sophie; Elmore, Michael J; Fakoli, Lawrence S; Faye, Ousmane; Gilbert, Merle L; Gevao, Sahr M; Gire, Stephen; Gladden-Young, Adrianne; Gnirke, Andreas; Goba, Augustine; Grant, Donald S; Haagmans, Bart L; Hiscox, Julian A; Jah, Umaru; Kugelman, Jeffrey R; Liu, Di; Lu, Jia; Malboeuf, Christine M; Mate, Suzanne; Matthews, David A; Matranga, Christian B; Meredith, Luke W; Qu, James; Quick, Joshua; Pas, Suzan D; Phan, My V T; Pollakis, Georgios; Reusken, Chantal B; Sanchez-Lockhart, Mariano; Schaffner, Stephen F; Schieffelin, John S; Sealfon, Rachel S; Simon-Loriere, Etienne; Smits, Saskia L; Stoecker, Kilian; Thorne, Lucy; Tobin, Ekaete Alice; Vandi, Mohamed A; Watson, Simon J; West, Kendra; Whitmer, Shannon; Wiley, Michael R; Winnicki, Sarah M; Wohl, Shirlee; Wölfel, Roman; Yozwiak, Nathan L; Andersen, Kristian G; Blyden, Sylvia O; Bolay, Fatorma; Carroll, Miles W; Dahn, Bernice; Diallo, Boubacar; Formenty, Pierre; Fraser, Christophe; Gao, George F; Garry, Robert F; Goodfellow, Ian; Günther, Stephan; Happi, Christian T; Holmes, Edward C; Kargbo, Brima; Keïta, Sakoba; Kellam, Paul; Koopmans, Marion P G; Kuhn, Jens H; Loman, Nicholas J; Magassouba, N'Faly; Naidoo, Dhamari; Nichol, Stuart T; Nyenswah, Tolbert; Palacios, Gustavo; Pybus, Oliver G; Sabeti, Pardis C; Sall, Amadou; Ströher, Ute; Wurie, Isatta; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew

    2017-04-20

    The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.

  10. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  11. Epidemic Clones” of Listeria monocytogenes Are Widespread and Ancient Clonal Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantinelli, Thomas; Chenal-Francisque, Viviane; Diancourt, Laure; Frezal, Lise; Leclercq, Alexandre; Wirth, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    The food-borne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes is genetically heterogeneous. Although some clonal groups have been implicated in multiple outbreaks, there is currently no consensus on how “epidemic clones” should be defined. The objectives of this work were to compare the patterns of sequence diversity on two sets of genes that have been widely used to define L. monocytogenes clonal groups: multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and multi-virulence-locus sequence typing (MvLST). Further, we evaluated the diversity within clonal groups by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Based on 125 isolates of diverse temporal, geographical, and source origins, MLST and MvLST genes (i) had similar patterns of sequence polymorphisms, recombination, and selection, (ii) provided concordant phylogenetic clustering, and (iii) had similar discriminatory power, which was not improved when we combined both data sets. Inclusion of representative strains of previous outbreaks demonstrated the correspondence of epidemic clones with previously recognized MLST clonal complexes. PFGE analysis demonstrated heterogeneity within major clones, most of which were isolated decades before their involvement in outbreaks. We conclude that the “epidemic clone” denominations represent a redundant but largely incomplete nomenclature system for MLST-defined clones, which must be regarded as successful genetic groups that are widely distributed across time and space. PMID:24006010

  12. Effects of contact network structure on epidemic transmission trees: implications for data required to estimate network structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

    2018-01-30

    Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is key to developing effective interventions to control or prevent an epidemic. The structure of the network of contacts over which the disease spreads has been shown to have a strong influence on the outcome of the epidemic, but an open question remains as to whether it is possible to estimate contact network features from data collected in an epidemic. The approach taken in this paper is to examine the distributions of epidemic outcomes arising from epidemics on networks with particular structural features to assess whether that structure could be measured from epidemic data and what other constraints might be needed to make the problem identifiable. To this end, we vary the network size, mean degree, and transmissibility of the pathogen, as well as the network feature of interest: clustering, degree assortativity, or attribute-based preferential mixing. We record several standard measures of the size and spread of the epidemic, as well as measures that describe the shape of the transmission tree in order to ascertain whether there are detectable signals in the final data from the outbreak. The results suggest that there is potential to estimate contact network features from transmission trees or pure epidemic data, particularly for diseases with high transmissibility or for which the relevant contact network is of low mean degree. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Outbreak of chikungunya fever, Dakshina Kannada District, South India, 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manimunda, Sathya P; Sugunan, Attayur P; Rai, Subhodh K; Vijayachari, Paluru; Shriram, Ananganallur N; Sharma, Sameer; Muruganandam, Nagarajan; Chaitanya, Itta K; Guruprasad, Dev R; Sudeep, Anakkathil B

    2010-10-01

    The outbreak of chikungunya fever that surfaced in India during late 2005 has affected more than 1.56 million people, spread to more than 17 states/union territories, and is still ongoing. Many of these areas are dengue- and leptospirosis-endemic settings. We carried out a cross-sectional survey in one such chikungunya-affected location in Dakshina Kannada District of Karnataka State to estimate the magnitude of the epidemic and the proportion of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections that remained clinically inapparent. The seropositivity for CHIKV infection was 62.2%, and the attack rate of confirmed CHIK fever was 58.3%. The proportion of inapparent CHIKV infection was 6.3%. The increasing trend in the seropositivity and attack rate of CHIKV infection with age group was statistically significant. The present study is an indicator of the magnitude of the ongoing outbreak of CHIKV infection in India that started during 2005-2006.

  14. Measles Elimination Efforts and 2008–2011 Outbreak, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lévy-Bruhl, Daniel; Baudon, Claire; Freymuth, François; Lamy, Mathieu; Maine, Catherine; Floret, Daniel; Parent du Chatelet, Isabelle

    2013-01-01

    Although few measles cases were reported in France during 2006 and 2007, suggesting the country might have been close to eliminating the disease, a dramatic outbreak of >20,000 cases occurred during 2008–2011. Adolescents and young adults accounted for more than half of cases; median patient age increased from 12 to 16 years during the outbreak. The highest incidence rate was observed in children <1 year of age, reaching 135 cases/100,000 infants during the last epidemic wave. Almost 5,000 patients were hospitalized, including 1,023 for severe pneumonia and 27 for encephalitis/myelitis; 10 patients died. More than 80% of the cases during this period occurred in unvaccinated persons, reflecting heterogeneous vaccination coverage, where pockets of susceptible persons still remain. Although vaccine coverage among children improved, convincing susceptible young adults to get vaccinated remains a critical issue if the target to eliminate the disease by 2015 is to be met. PMID:23618523

  15. OBESITY: OVERVIEW OF AN EPIDEMIC

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Nia; Catenacci, Vicki; Wyatt, Holly R.; Hill, James O.

    2011-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the problem, the obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and obesity rates are increasing around the world. The latest estimates are that approximately 34% of adults and 15–20% of children and adolescents in the U.S. are obese. Obesity affects every segment of the U.S. population. Obesity increases the risk of many chronic diseases in children and adults. The epidemic of obesity arose gradually over time, apparently from a small, consistent degree of positive en...

  16. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  17. HIV epidemic in South Africa: A comparison of HIV epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-08-26

    Aug 26, 2014 ... Method: 'Know your epidemic' synthesis suggests that HIV prevalence is rising in older age groups and falling in younger people. Using secondary data analyses of population-based and antenatal care surveillance (ANC) surveys, we explored trends and patterns in HIV prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal and ...

  18. Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Constantin de Magny

    Full Text Available Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

  19. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  20. Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Saavedra, Aldo F; Duchêne, Sebastián; Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian; Holmes, Edward C

    2018-01-01

    The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the

  1. Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jemma L Geoghegan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health

  2. Cell Phones ≠ Self and Other Problems with Big Data Detection and Containment during Epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Susan L

    2018-03-08

    Evidence from Sierra Leone reveals the significant limitations of big data in disease detection and containment efforts. Early in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, media heralded HealthMap's ability to detect the outbreak from newsfeeds. Later, big data-specifically, call detail record data collected from millions of cell phones-was hyped as useful for stopping the disease by tracking contagious people. It did not work. In this article, I trace the causes of big data's containment failures. During epidemics, big data experiments can have opportunity costs: namely, forestalling urgent response. Finally, what counts as data during epidemics must include that coming from anthropological technologies because they are so useful for detection and containment. © 2018 The Authors Medical Anthropology Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Anthropological Association.

  3. Beyond Tsetse--Implications for Research and Control of Human African Trypanosomiasis Epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welburn, Susan C; Molyneux, David H; Maudlin, Ian

    2016-03-01

    Epidemics of both forms of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) are confined to spatially stable foci in Sub-Saharan Africa while tsetse distribution is widespread. Infection rates of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense in tsetse are extremely low and cannot account for the catastrophic epidemics of Gambian HAT (gHAT) seen over the past century. Here we examine the origins of gHAT epidemics and evidence implicating human genetics in HAT epidemiology. We discuss the role of stress causing breakdown of heritable tolerance in silent disease carriers generating gHAT outbreaks and see how peculiarities in the epidemiologies of gHAT and Rhodesian HAT (rHAT) impact on strategies for disease control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Legionnaires’ Disease: Clinicoradiological Comparison of Sporadic Versus Outbreak Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hafiz Rizwan Talib Hashmi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: In 2015, New York City experienced the worst outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease in the history of the city. We compare patients seen during the 2015 outbreak with sporadic cases of Legionella during the past 5 years. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of 90 patients with Legionnaires’ disease, including sporadic cases of Legionella infection admitted from 2010 to 2015 (n = 55 and cases admitted during the 2015 outbreak (n = 35. Results: We saw no significant differences between the 2 groups regarding demographics, smoking habits, alcohol intake, underlying medical disease, or residence type. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that patients with sporadic case of Legionella had a longer stay in the hospital and intensive care unit as well as an increased stay in mechanical ventilation. Short-term mortality, discharge disposition, and most clinical parameters did not differ significantly between the 2 groups. Conclusions: We found no specific clinicoradiological characteristics that could differentiate sporadic from epidemic cases of Legionella . Early recognition and high suspicion for Legionnaires’ disease are critical to provide appropriate treatment. Cluster of cases should increase suspicion for an outbreak.

  5. Organization of a third-level care hospital in Mexico City during the 2009 influenza epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourlon, María T; Macias, Alejandro E; de la Torre, Alethse; Gulias-Herrero, Alfonso; Leal, Patricia E; Domínguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Huertas, Martha; Ruiz-Palacios, Guillermo M

    2009-11-01

    An outbreak caused by the novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus was identified in Mexico in late March 2009. The objective of this report is to describe the organization of a tertiary care center in Mexico City during the contingency. We describe the education program, the hospital organization and triaging, and unforeseen overwhelming circumstances. Educational plans were directed to follow standard, contact, and droplet precautions and to condition behavior to avoid touching the eyes, nose, or mouth. N95 respirators were distributed only to perform respiratory procedures. By the fifth month into the epidemic, four patients with hospital-acquired influenza, 467 workers with respiratory symptoms suggestive of influenza (16% of our staff), and 96 workers with confirmed novel influenza A (3% of our staff) were identified. During the first 2 months of the epidemic, 44,225 people went through the triages and only 1503 (3.3%) reached the emergency room. By the fifth month into the epidemic, four small institutional influenza outbreaks (influenza was used mainly for epidemiological purposes. Even though we had a supply, we had difficulties in meeting the demand of masks, N-95 respirators, and hand sanitizers. Due to absenteeism, the nursing administration experienced difficulties in covering shifts. Preparation is mandatory for facing an influenza epidemic. The correct use of precautions is an economic measure to limit institutional transmission. Adequate triaging is essential to meet unusual attention demands.

  6. Transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wan; Zhang, Wenyi; Kargbo, David; Yang, Ruifu; Chen, Yong; Chen, Zeliang; Kamara, Abdul; Kargbo, Brima; Kandula, Sasikiran; Karspeck, Alicia; Liu, Chao; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2015-11-06

    Understanding the growth and spatial expansion of (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks, such as Ebola and avian influenza, is critical for the effective planning of control measures; however, such efforts are often compromised by data insufficiencies and observational errors. Here, we develop a spatial-temporal inference methodology using a modified network model in conjunction with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, a Bayesian inference method equipped to handle observational errors. The combined method is capable of revealing the spatial-temporal progression of infectious disease, while requiring only limited, readily compiled data. We use this method to reconstruct the transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone and identify source and sink regions. Our inference suggests that, in Sierra Leone, transmission within the network introduced Ebola to neighbouring districts and initiated self-sustaining local epidemics; two of the more populous and connected districts, Kenema and Port Loko, facilitated two independent transmission pathways. Epidemic intensity differed by district, was highly correlated with population size (r = 0.76, p = 0.0015) and a critical window of opportunity for containing local Ebola epidemics at the source (ca one month) existed. This novel methodology can be used to help identify and contain the spatial expansion of future (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks. © 2015 The Author(s).

  7. Climate, Water, and Human Health: Large Scale Hydroclimatic Controls in Forecasting Cholera Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

    2009-12-01

    Despite ravaging the continents through seven global pandemics in past centuries, the seasonal and interannual variability of cholera outbreaks remain a mystery. Previous studies have focused on the role of various environmental and climatic factors, but provided little or no predictive capability. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of large scale hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - and attempt to explain the seasonality and the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia. We investigate the seasonal and interannual nature of cholera epidemiology in three geographically distinct locations within the region to identify the larger scale hydroclimatic controls that can set the ecological and environmental ‘stage’ for outbreaks and have significant memory on a seasonal scale. Here we show that two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large scale climatic controls prevail in the region. An implication of our findings is that extreme climatic events such as prolonged droughts, record floods, and major cyclones may cause major disruption in the ecosystem and trigger large epidemics. We postulate that a quantitative understanding of the large-scale hydroclimatic controls and dominant processes with significant system memory will form the basis for forecasting such epidemic outbreaks. A multivariate regression method using these predictor variables to develop probabilistic forecasts of cholera outbreaks will be explored. Forecasts from such a system with a seasonal lead-time are likely to have measurable impact on early cholera detection and prevention efforts in endemic regions.

  8. Knowledge, attitudes and practices about malaria among communities: Comparing epidemic and non-epidemic prone communities of Muleba district, North-western Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kishamawe Coleman

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Muleba district in North-western Tanzania has experienced malaria epidemics in recent years. Community knowledge, attitudes and practices are important in enhancing disease control interventions. This study investigated determinants of malaria epidemics in the study area in relation to household knowledge, attitudes and practice on malaria. Methods A community based cross-sectional survey involving 504 study participants was conducted between April and June 2007 using a structured questionnaire focusing on knowledge, attitudes and practices of community members in epidemic and non-epidemic villages about malaria transmission, signs and symptoms, treatment, prevention and control. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess determinants of malaria epidemics. Results A total of 504 respondents (males = 36.9% were interviewed. Overall, 453 (90.1% mentioned malaria as the most important disease in the area. Four hundred and sixty four respondents (92.1% knew that malaria is transmitted through mosquito bite. A total of 436 (86.7%, 306 (60.8% and 162 (32.1% mentioned fever, vomiting and loss of appetite as major symptoms/signs of malaria, respectively. Of those interviewed 328 (65.1% remembered the recent outbreak of 2006. Of the 504 respondents interviewed, 296 (58.7% reported that their households owned at least one mosquito net. Three hundred and ninety seven respondents (78.8% knew insecticides used to impregnate bed nets. About two thirds (63.3% of the respondents had at least a household member who suffered from malaria during the recent epidemic. During the 2006 outbreak, 278 people (87.2% sought treatment from health facilities while 27 (8.5% obtained drugs from drug shops and 10 (3.1% used local herbs. Logistic regression analysis showed that household location and level of knowledge of cause of malaria were significant predictors of a household being affected by epidemic. Conclusions Residents of Muleba

  9. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  10. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  11. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  12. Opioids: The Prescription Drug & Heroin Overdose Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... About the Epidemic Help, Resources and Information National Opioids Crisis Search Search National Helpline SAMHSA’s National Helpline ... 1-800-662-4357 Visit Helpline Website THE OPIOID EPIDEMIC IN NUMBERS 80% Nearly 80% of heroin ...

  13. Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco M Neri

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive. In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a

  14. The dynamics of the hand, foot and mouth disease epidemic from 2008 to 2016 in Zhenjiang city, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Lingxiang; Fu, Xuemin; Wu, Jing; Shen, Li; Gu, Jiaqi; Yuan, Zhaohu; Chen, Jianguo; Zou, Xinran; Zhang, Chiyu

    2018-04-10

    To investigate the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic in Zhenjiang, China from 2008 to 2016. A total of 37,202 HFMD cases were investigated and 3707 nasopharyngeal swabs were detected for enterovirus RNA using RT-quantitative PCR. We first reported a mixed pattern of HFMD seasonal epidemic with a combination of single-peak and two-peak patterns in alternate years, and the occurrence of sporadic and epidemic outbreaks of HFMD in kindergartens in Zhenjiang. Children younger than 4 years of age were highly vulnerable to HFMD, and home children and boys had higher risk to develop severe HFMD than nursery children and girls, respectively. Among tested samples, 1709 (46.1%) were detected as enterovirus RNA positive. This study first presents the dynamic of the HFMD epidemic in Zhenjiang from 2008 to 2016.

  15. [DETERMINATION OF TYPES OF EPIDEMIC MANIFESTATIONS OF CHOLERA IN REGIONS OF THE CRIMEA FEDERAL DISTRICT (REPUBLIC OF CRIMEA)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onischenko, G G; Popova, A Yu; Moskvitina, E A; Penkovskaya, N A; Listopad, S A; Titova, S V; Kruglikov, V D

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was determination of the type of epidemic manifestations of cholera in the Republic of Crimea based on evaluation of epidemic manifestations of cholera risk of introduction and spread of the infection. It was concluded, that, based on the cholera outbreaks, that had taken place, contamination of surface water bodies (fresh and sea) and sewage by Vibrio cholerae O1 ctxA+ and Vibrio cholerae O1 ctXA- potential epidemic danger of introduction of the infection by various types of international transport, population migration, the presence of epidemiologic risk in realization of water pathway of transmission of cholera causative agent and several other social conditions, the Republic of Crimea remains in the group of territories of type I by epidemic manifestations of cholera.

  16. Incentives for reporting disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Reif, Julian; Malani, Anup

    2014-01-01

    Countries face conflicting incentives to report infectious disease outbreaks. Reports of outbreaks can prompt other countries to impose trade and travel restrictions, which has the potential to discourage reporting. However, reports can also bring medical assistance to contain the outbreak, including access to vaccines. We compiled data on reports of meningococcal meningitis to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 54 African countries between 1966 and 2002, a period is marked by two events: first, a large outbreak reported from many countries in 1987 associated with the Hajj that resulted in more stringent requirements for meningitis vaccination among pilgrims; and second, another large outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa in 1996 that led to a new international mechanism to supply vaccines to countries reporting a meningitis outbreak. We used fixed-effects regression modeling to statistically estimate the effect of external forcing events on the number of countries reporting cases of meningitis to WHO. We find that the Hajj vaccination requirements started in 1988 were associated with reduced reporting, especially among countries with relatively fewer cases reported between 1966 and 1979. After the vaccine provision mechanism was in place in 1996, reporting among countries that had previously not reported meningitis outbreaks increased. These results indicate that countries may respond to changing incentives to report outbreaks when they can do so. In the long term, these incentives are likely to be more important than surveillance assistance in prompt reporting of outbreaks.

  17. [EPIDEMIOLOGIC FEATURES OFNOROVIRUS INFECTION OUTBREAK IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH OSSETIA-ALANIA].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maletskaya, O V; Tibilov, A G; Prislegina, D A; Gazieva, G K; Otaraeva, N I; Volynkina, A S; Saveliev, V N; Lyamkin, G I; Zaitsev, A A; Kulichenko, A N

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of epidemiologic features of a norovirus outbreak in Alagir city of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania and effectiveness of measures of its liquidation. Data from maps-schemes of water supply system of Alagir city and statistical documentation of Centre of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania were used in the study. Indication of norovirus in clinical material and water samples was carried out bypolymerase chain reaction method. Etiological agent of outbreak disease was established--genotype II norovirus. Realization of fecal-oral mechanisms of water transmission pathway of the causative agent of norovirus infection was detected. Conditions facilitating emergence and development of the indicated outbreak were determined--non-satisfactory sanitary-technical condition of water. supply system of the city. The studied water outbreak of norovirus infection was caused by GII.17 genotype virus, that currently gradually displaces GII.IV genotype, and was characterized by an intensive start, involvement of all population age groups into the epidemic process (with primary infection of adults), low family focality, predominance of average severity disease forms in the clinical presentation. The counter-epidemic measures carried out ensured rapid localization and liquidation of the norovirus infection outbreak.

  18. Distinguishing epidemiological features of the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; Espinel, Zelde; Espinola, Maria; Rechkemmer, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic was notable for its scope, scale, and complexity. This briefing presents a series of distinguishing epidemiological features that set this outbreak apart. Compared to one concurrent and 23 previous outbreaks of the disease over 40 years, this was the only occurrence of Ebola virus disease involving multiple nations and qualifying as a pandemic. Across multiple measures of magnitude, the 2013-2016 outbreak was accurately described using superlatives: largest and deadliest in terms of numbers of cases and fatalities; longest in duration; and most widely dispersed geographically, with outbreak-associated cases occurring in 10 nations. In contrast, the case-fatality rate was much lower for the 2013-2016 outbreak compared to the other 24 outbreaks. A population of particular interest for ongoing monitoring and public health surveillance is comprised of more than 17,000 "survivors," Ebola patients who successfully recovered from their illness. The daunting challenges posed by this outbreak were met by an intensive international public health response. The near-exponential rate of increase of incident Ebola cases during mid-2014 was successfully slowed, reversed, and finally halted through the application of multiple disease containment and intervention strategies.

  19. Distinguishing epidemiological features of the 2013–2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M.; Espinel, Zelde; Espinola, Maria; Rechkemmer, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The 2013–2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic was notable for its scope, scale, and complexity. This briefing presents a series of distinguishing epidemiological features that set this outbreak apart. Compared to one concurrent and 23 previous outbreaks of the disease over 40 years, this was the only occurrence of Ebola virus disease involving multiple nations and qualifying as a pandemic. Across multiple measures of magnitude, the 2013–2016 outbreak was accurately described using superlatives: largest and deadliest in terms of numbers of cases and fatalities; longest in duration; and most widely dispersed geographically, with outbreak-associated cases occurring in 10 nations. In contrast, the case-fatality rate was much lower for the 2013–2016 outbreak compared to the other 24 outbreaks. A population of particular interest for ongoing monitoring and public health surveillance is comprised of more than 17,000 “survivors,” Ebola patients who successfully recovered from their illness. The daunting challenges posed by this outbreak were met by an intensive international public health response. The near-exponential rate of increase of incident Ebola cases during mid-2014 was successfully slowed, reversed, and finally halted through the application of multiple disease containment and intervention strategies. PMID:28229017

  20. A Waterborne Gastroenteritis Outbreak Caused by Norovirus GII.17 in a Hotel, Hebei, China, December 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Meng; Dong, Xiao-Gen; Jing, Yan-Yan; Wei, Xiu-Xia; Wang, Zhao-E; Feng, Hui-Ru; Yu, Hong; Li, Jin-Song; Li, Jie

    2016-09-01

    Norovirus (NoV) is responsible for an estimated 90 % of all epidemic nonbacterial outbreaks of gastroenteritis worldwide. Waterborne outbreaks of NoV are commonly reported. A novel GII.17 NoV strain emerged as a major cause of gastroenteritis outbreaks in China during the winter of 2014/2015. During this time, an outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred at a hotel in a ski park in Hebei Province, China. Epidemiological investigations indicated that one water well, which had only recently been in use, was the probable source. GII.17 NoV was detected by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction from samples taken from cases, from concentrated water samples from water well, and from the nearby sewage settling tank. Nucleotide sequences of NoV extracted from clinical and water specimens were genetically identical and had 99 % homology with Beijing/CHN/2015. All epidemiological data indicated that GII.17 NoV was responsible for this outbreak. This is the first reported laboratory-confirmed waterborne outbreak caused by GII.17 NoV genotype in China. Strengthening management of well drinking water and systematica monitoring of NoV is essential for preventing future outbreaks.

  1. Estimating the effectiveness of early control measures through school absenteeism surveillance in observed outbreaks at rural schools in Hubei, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yunzhou; Yang, Mei; Jiang, Hongbo; Wang, Ying; Yang, Wenwen; Zhang, Zhixia; Yan, Weirong; Diwan, Vinod K; Xu, Biao; Dong, Hengjin; Palm, Lars; Liu, Li; Nie, Shaofa

    2014-01-01

    School absenteeism is a common data source in syndromic surveillance, which allows for the detection of outbreaks at an early stage. Previous studies focused on its correlation with other data sources. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of control measures based on early warning signals from school absenteeism surveillance in rural Chinese schools. A school absenteeism surveillance system was established in all 17 primary schools in 3 adjacent towns in the Chinese region of Hubei. Three outbreaks (varicella, mumps, and influenza-like illness) were detected and controlled successfully from April 1, 2012, to January 15, 2014. An impulse susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to fit the epidemics of these three outbreaks. Moreover, it simulated the potential epidemics under interventions resulting from traditional surveillance signals. The effectiveness of the absenteeism-based control measures was evaluated by comparing the simulated datasets. The school absenteeism system generated 52 signals. Three outbreaks were verified through epidemiological investigation. Compared to traditional surveillance, the school absenteeism system generated simultaneous signals for the varicella outbreak, but 3 days in advance for the mumps outbreak and 2-4 days in advance for the influenza-like illness outbreak. The estimated excess protection rates of control measures based on early signals were 0.0%, 19.0-44.1%, and 29.0-37.0% for the three outbreaks, respectively. Although not all outbreak control measures can benefit from early signals through school absenteeism surveillance, the effectiveness of early signal-based interventions is obvious. School absenteeism surveillance plays an important role in reducing outbreak spread.

  2. A framework to gauge the epidemic potential of plant pathogens in environmental reservoirs: the example of kiwifruit canker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartoli, Claudia; Lamichhane, Jay Ram; Berge, Odile; Guilbaud, Caroline; Varvaro, Leonardo; Balestra, Giorgio M; Vinatzer, Boris A; Morris, Cindy E

    2015-02-01

    New economically important diseases on crops and forest trees emerge recurrently. An understanding of where new pathogenic lines come from and how they evolve is fundamental for the deployment of accurate surveillance methods. We used kiwifruit bacterial canker as a model to assess the importance of potential reservoirs of new pathogenic lineages. The current kiwifruit canker epidemic is at least the fourth outbreak of the disease on kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae in the mere 50 years in which this crop has been cultivated worldwide, with each outbreak being caused by different genetic lines of the bacterium. Here, we ask whether strains in natural (non-agricultural) environments could cause future epidemics of canker on kiwifruit. To answer this question, we evaluated the pathogenicity, endophytic colonization capacity and competitiveness on kiwifruit of P. syringae strains genetically similar to epidemic strains and originally isolated from aquatic and subalpine habitats. All environmental strains possessing an operon involved in the degradation of aromatic compounds via the catechol pathway grew endophytically and caused symptoms in kiwifruit vascular tissue. Environmental and epidemic strains showed a wide host range, revealing their potential as future pathogens of a variety of hosts. Environmental strains co-existed endophytically with CFBP 7286, an epidemic strain, and shared about 20 virulence genes, but were missing six virulence genes found in all epidemic strains. By identifying the specific gene content in genetic backgrounds similar to known epidemic strains, we developed criteria to assess the epidemic potential and to survey for such strains as a means of forecasting and managing disease emergence. © 2014 BSPP AND JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD.

  3. Ongoing dengue epidemic - Angola, June 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    On April 1, 2013, the Public Health Directorate of Angola announced that six cases of dengue had been reported to the Ministry of Health of Angola (MHA). As of May 31, a total of 517 suspected dengue cases had been reported and tested for dengue with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A total of 313 (60.5%) specimens tested positive for dengue, including one from a patient who died. All suspected cases were reported from Luanda Province, except for two from Malanje Province. Confirmatory diagnostic testing of 49 specimens (43 RDT-positive and six RDT-negative) at the CDC Dengue Branch confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infection in 100% of the RDT-positive specimens and 50% of the RDT-negative specimens. Only DENV-1 was detected by molecular diagnostic testing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated this virus has been circulating in the region since at least 1968, strongly suggesting that dengue is endemic in Angola. Health-care professionals throughout Angola should be aware of the ongoing epidemic, the recommended practices for clinical management of dengue patients, and the need to report cases to MHA. Persons in Angola should seek medical care for acute febrile illness to reduce the risk for developing complications. Laboratory-confirmed dengue also has been reported from seven countries on four continents among persons who had recently traveled to Luanda, including 79 persons from Portugal. Angola is the third of four African countries to report a dengue outbreak in 2013. Persons returning from Africa with acute febrile illness should seek medical care, including testing for DENV infection, and suspected cases should be reported to public health authorities.

  4. Multidrug-Resistant Bacterial Outbreaks in Burn Units: A Synthesis of the Literature According to the ORION Statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girerd-Genessay, Isabelle; Bénet, Thomas; Vanhems, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to review the literature on multidrug-resistant bacteria (MDRB) outbreaks in burn units according to the outbreak reports and intervention studies of nosocomial infection statement. A PubMed search engine was enlisted to identify reports, in English and French, on MDRB outbreaks in burn units, with no date restrictions, using the following key words: ("burn" OR "burns" OR "severe burn") AND ("unit" OR "critical care" OR "acute care" OR "intensive care" OR "center" OR "centre" OR "department") AND ("outbreak" OR "epidemic") AND ("resistant" OR "multidrug-resistant" OR "resistance" OR "MDR" OR "MDRO"). Twenty-nine articles on such outbreaks in burn units were analyzed. A wide variety of these outbreaks were studied in terms of the microbial agents involved, length of outbreak, and attack rate (1.9-66.7%). The most frequent bacteria were methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Acinetobacter baumannii. Screening of staff revealed carrier rates of 0 to 20% in 16 studies. Environmental samples were taken in 21 studies and were positive in 14 of them. The mortality rate among infected patients varied from 0 to 33%. Implementation of isolation precautions did not always suffice, with unit closure being necessary in five outbreaks. The lack of consensus on how to manage such outbreak was highlighted. MDRB infections or colonizations are responsible for increased morbidity and mortality in vulnerable burn patients. Their management is problematic because of multifactorial transmission and limited therapeutic possibilities.

  5. Brote con síntomas respiratorios en la provincia de Almería por una posible exposición a microalgas tóxicas An epidemic outbreak with respiratory symptoms in the province of Almeria (Spain due to toxic microalgae exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar Barroso García

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Describir un brote con clínica de irritación de las vías respiratorias, notificado en una localidad de la costa almeriense en agosto de 2006, así como la investigación etiológica realizada. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo y de casos y controles. Se dividió la localidad en 3 zonas según su mayor o menor cercanía al mar (de 1 a 3. La sintomatología fue valorada subjetivamente de menor a mayor gravedad (1 a 3. Se estimaron las tasas de ataque (TA. Para relacionar la gravedad de los síntomas por zonas y el tipo de exposición se calcularon las odds ratio (OR y sus intervalos de confianza del 95% (IC95%. También se utilizó la prueba de la χ2 y el test exacto de Fisher. Se realizó una investigación ambiental. Resultados: Se encuestó a 57 casos y 26 controles. Se estimó una TA del 69%. El síntoma más frecuente fue el estornudo (87,7%. Los individuos de la zona 1 presentaron mayor riesgo de padecer sintomatología de más gravedad que los de la zona 3 (OR = 46,7; IC95%: 4,7-2.067,4. Los que indicaron una mayor permanencia fuera de la vivienda tuvieron mayor riesgo de enfermar (OR = 12,2; IC95%: 1,1-615,1. En agua de mar se detectaron 1.200 células/l de dinoflagelados Ostreopsis. Conclusiones: Se trata de un brote con sintomatología respiratoria, con distinto grado de afectación según la cercanía al mar de la vivienda. Según la investigación epidemiológica y ambiental, lo más probable es que se haya debido a la presencia de microalgas tóxicas Ostreopsis.Aim: To describe an outbreak with symptoms of respiratory tract irritation reported in a village located on the Almerian coast in August 2006, as well as the etiological research performed. Methods: We performed a descriptive case-control study. The village was divided into three areas (from 1 to 3 according to the distance from the sea. Symptomatology was subjectively assessed on an ascending severity scale (from 1 to 3. Attack rates (AR were estimated. To correlate

  6. OmpU as a biomarker for rapid discrimination between toxigenic and epidemic Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 and non-epidemic Vibrio cholerae in a modified MALDI-TOF MS assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paauw, Armand; Trip, Hein; Niemcewicz, Marcin; Sellek, Ricela; Heng, Jonathan Me; Mars-Groenendijk, Roos H; de Jong, Ad L; Majchrzykiewicz-Koehorst, Joanna A; Olsen, Jaran S; Tsivtsivadze, Evgeni

    2014-06-18

    Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks are caused by a genetically homogenous group of strains from serogroup O1 or O139 that are able to produce the cholera toxin. Rapid detection and identification of these epidemic strains is essential for an effective response to cholera outbreaks. The use of ferulic acid as a matrix in a new MALDI-TOF MS assay increased the measurable mass range of existing MALDI-TOF MS protocols for bacterial identification. The assay enabled rapid discrimination between epidemic V. cholerae O1/O139 strains and other less pathogenic V. cholerae strains. OmpU, an outer membrane protein whose amino acid sequence is highly conserved among epidemic strains of V. cholerae, appeared as a discriminatory marker in the novel MALDI-TOF MS assay. The extended mass range of MALDI-TOF MS measurements obtained by using ferulic acid improved the screening for biomarkers in complex protein mixtures. Differences in the mass of abundant homologous proteins due to variation in amino acid sequences can rapidly be examined in multiple samples. Here, a rapid MALDI-TOF MS assay was developed that could discriminate between epidemic O1/O139 strains and other less pathogenic V. cholerae strains based on differences in mass of the OmpU protein. It appeared that the amino acid sequence of OmpU from epidemic V. cholerae O1/O139 strains is unique and highly conserved.

  7. The macroeconomics of targeting: the case of an enduring epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Clive; Gersbach, Hans

    2009-01-01

    What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, at first on some subgroups of society. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. A summary account of the empirical evidence is followed by an application of the framework to South Africa.

  8. The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2018-03-01

    In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

  9. Oscillations in epidemic models with spread of awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, Winfried; Saldaña, Joan; Xin, Ying

    2018-03-01

    We study ODE models of epidemic spreading with a preventive behavioral response that is triggered by awareness of the infection. Previous studies of such models have mostly focused on the impact of the response on the initial growth of an outbreak and the existence and location of endemic equilibria. Here we study the question whether this type of response is sufficient to prevent future flare-ups from low endemic levels if awareness is assumed to decay over time. In the ODE context, such flare-ups would translate into sustained oscillations with significant amplitudes. Our results show that such oscillations are ruled out in Susceptible-Aware-Infectious-Susceptible models with a single compartment of aware hosts, but can occur if we consider two distinct compartments of aware hosts who differ in their willingness to alert other susceptible hosts.

  10. Disease Outbreaks Caused by Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craun, Gunther F.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of the disease outbreaks caused by drinking polluted water, covering publications of 1976-77. Some of the waterborn outbreaks included are: (1) cholera; (2) gastroenteritis; (3) giardiasis; and (4) typhoid fever and salmonellosis. A list of 66 references is also presented. (HM)

  11. Gastroenteritis outbreaks on cruise ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mouchtouri, Varvara A; Verykouki, Eleni; Zamfir, Dumitru

    2017-01-01

    When an increased number of acute gastroenteritis (AG) cases is detected among tourists staying at the same accommodation, outbreak management plans must be activated in a timely manner to prevent large outbreaks. Syndromic surveillance data collected between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2013...

  12. Seroprevalence of human enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in Guangdong, China, in pre- and post-2010 HFMD epidemic period.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackie A16 have caused many outbreaks in the last decade in mainland China, resulting in thousands of fatal cases. Seroepidemiology which provides important information to document population immunity is rare in China. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross sectional study of Enterovirus 71 (EV71 and Coxsackie A16 (CA16 seroprevalence was carried out in Guangdong, China, pre- and post- the 2010 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD epidemic period. The levels of EV71 and CA16 specific antibodies were evaluated by a microneutralization test and the geometric mean titer (GMT was calculated and compared. Our results indicated frequent infection by EV71 and CA16 in Guangdong before the 2010 epidemic. Only EV71 neutralizing antibody but not CA16 seroprevalence was significantly increased after the 2010 HFMD epidemic. Children less than 3 years old especially those aged 2 years showed the lowest positive rates for EV71 and CA16 NA before epidemic and the most significantly increased EV71 seroprevalence after epidemic. CA16 GMT values declined after the 2010 epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate EV71 was the major pathogen of HFMD in Guangdong during the 2010 epidemic. The infection occurs largely in children less than 3 years, who should have first priority to receive an EV71 vaccine.

  13. Epidemic thresholds for bipartite networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, D. G.; Risau-Gusman, S.

    2013-11-01

    It is well known that sexually transmitted diseases (STD) spread across a network of human sexual contacts. This network is most often bipartite, as most STD are transmitted between men and women. Even though network models in epidemiology have quite a long history now, there are few general results about bipartite networks. One of them is the simple dependence, predicted using the mean field approximation, between the epidemic threshold and the average and variance of the degree distribution of the network. Here we show that going beyond this approximation can lead to qualitatively different results that are supported by numerical simulations. One of the new features, that can be relevant for applications, is the existence of a critical value for the infectivity of each population, below which no epidemics can arise, regardless of the value of the infectivity of the other population.

  14. Impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea on performance of growing pigs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Alvarez

    Full Text Available The impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv infection on the US pork industry has mainly been attributed to the mortality that it causes in suckling piglets, and, consequently, much effort has been invested in the quantification of its effect in sow farms. However, no information on the performance of surviving pigs that were exposed to the PEDv as piglets is available. Here, a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv infection on growing pigs' performance, as indicated by mortality, average daily gain (ADG, average daily feed intake (ADFI, and feed conversion ratio (FCR was performed using production records from weaned pigs in nursery and wean-to-finish sites from sow farms that became PEDv-infected between May 2013 and June 2014. Production records from the first batch of growing pigs weaned in infected flows after the PEDv outbreak ("infected batches" were compared with those from pigs weaned within the previous 14 to 120 days ("control batches". Performance records from infected and control batches, paired by flow, were compared using non-parametric paired tests. Mortality, ADG and FCR were significantly different in PEDv-positive (infected compared with PEDv-negative (control batches, with a mean increase of mortality and FCR of 11% and 0.5, respectively, and a decrease of ADG of 0.16 lb/day. Our results demonstrate a poorer performance of growing pigs weaned after a PEDv outbreak compared with those weaned within the previous 14-120 days, suggesting that in addition to the mortality induced by PEDv in suckling pigs, the disease also impairs the performance of surviving pig. These findings help to quantify the impact of PEDv infection in the US and, ultimately, contribute to efforts to quantify the cost-effectiveness of disease prevention and control measures.

  15. Coxsackievirus A6: a new emerging pathogen causing hand, foot and mouth disease outbreaks worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Lianlian; Wang, Yiping; Yao, Xin; Mao, Qunying; Xu, Miao; Liang, Zhenglun

    2015-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) are the predominant pathogens causing outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) worldwide. Other human enterovirus A (HEV-A) serotypes tend to cause only sporadic HFMD cases. However, since a HFMD caused by coxsackievirus A6 broke out in Finland in 2008, CA6 has been identified as the responsible pathogen for a series of HFMD outbreaks in Europe, North America and Asia. Because of the severity of the clinical manifestations and the underestimated public health burden, the epidemic of CA6-associated HFMD presents a new challenge to the control of HFMD. This article reviewed the epidemic characteristics, molecular epidemiology, clinical features and laboratory diagnosis of CA6 infection. The genetic evolution of CA6 strains associated with HFMD was also analyzed. It indicated that the development of a multivalent vaccine combining EV71, CA16 and CA6 is an urgent necessity to control HFMD.

  16. Epidemic spread on weighted networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The contact structure between hosts shapes disease spread. Most network-based models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts between two individuals. However, this assumption is known to be at odds with the data for many networks (e.g. sexual contact networks and to have a critical influence on epidemics' behavior. One of the reasons why models usually ignore heterogeneity in transmission is that we currently lack tools to analyze weighted networks, such that most studies rely on numerical simulations. Here, we present a novel framework to estimate key epidemiological variables, such as the rate of early epidemic expansion (r0 and the basic reproductive ratio (R0, from joint probability distributions of number of partners (contacts and number of interaction events through which contacts are weighted. These distributions are much easier to infer than the exact shape of the network, which makes the approach widely applicable. The framework also allows for a derivation of the full time course of epidemic prevalence and contact behaviour, which we validate with numerical simulations on networks. Overall, incorporating more realistic contact networks into epidemiological models can improve our understanding of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.

  17. Understanding the Cholera Epidemic, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrais, Robert; Faucher, Benoît; Haus, Rachel; Piarroux, Martine; Gaudart, Jean; Magloire, Roc; Raoult, Didier

    2011-01-01

    After onset of a cholera epidemic in Haiti in mid-October 2010, a team of researchers from France and Haiti implemented field investigations and built a database of daily cases to facilitate identification of communes most affected. Several models were used to identify spatiotemporal clusters, assess relative risk associated with the epidemic’s spread, and investigate causes of its rapid expansion in Artibonite Department. Spatiotemporal analyses highlighted 5 significant clusters (p<0.001): 1 near Mirebalais (October 16–19) next to a United Nations camp with deficient sanitation, 1 along the Artibonite River (October 20–28), and 3 caused by the centrifugal epidemic spread during November. The regression model indicated that cholera more severely affected communes in the coastal plain (risk ratio 4.91) along the Artibonite River downstream of Mirebalais (risk ratio 4.60). Our findings strongly suggest that contamination of the Artibonite and 1 of its tributaries downstream from a military camp triggered the epidemic. PMID:21762567

  18. Epidemic Dissemination of a Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Clone Carrying armA Two Years After Its First Isolation in an Italian Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milan, Annalisa; Furlanis, Linda; Cian, Franca; Bressan, Raffaela; Luzzati, Roberto; Lagatolla, Cristina; Deiana, Maria Luisa; Knezevich, Anna; Tonin, Enrico; Dolzani, Lucilla

    2016-12-01

    This study describes the dissemination of a carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) strain in a university hospital in Northeast Italy. Characterization of the outbreak strain was combined with a retrospective analysis of all CRAB isolates collected in the same hospital during the 5 years preceding the outbreak, with the aim of elucidating the origin of the epidemic spread. The outbreak strain was shown to belong to the International Clone II and carry the bla OXA-23 gene, flanked by two ISAba1 sequences in opposite orientation (Tn2006 arrangement). The epidemic clone harbored also the bla OXA-66 allele of the carbapenemase intrinsic to A. baumannii, the determinant of ArmA 16S rRNA methylase and a class 1 integron, with the aacA4, catB8, and aadA1 cassette array. Genotype analysis, performed by macrorestriction analysis and VRBA, revealed that isolates related to outbreak strain had been sporadically collected from inpatients in the 2 years preceding outbreak start. Carriage of bla OXA-66 , armA, and the integron further supported relatedness of these isolates to the outbreak clone. Outbreak initially involved three medical wards, typically hosting elderly patients with a history of prolonged hospitalization. The study highlights the need to adopt strict infection control measures also when CRAB isolation appears to be a sporadic event.

  19. Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North American forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saab, Victoria A.; Latif, Quresh S.; Rowland, Mary M.; Johnson, Tracey N.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Buskirk, Steven W.; Heyward, Joslin E.; Dresser, Matthew A.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreaks are increasingly prevalent in western North America, causing considerable ecological change in pine (Pinus spp.) forests with important implications for wildlife. We reviewed studies examining wildlife responses to MPB outbreaks and postoutbreak salvage logging to inform forest management and guide future research. Our review included 16 studies describing MPB outbreak relationships with 89 bird species and 6 studies describing relationships with 11 mammalian species, but no studies of reptiles or amphibians. We included studies that compared wildlife response metrics temporally (before versus after the outbreak) and spatially (across sites that varied in severity of outbreak) in relation to beetle outbreaks. Outbreaks ranged in size from 20,600 to ≥107 ha and studies occurred 1‐30 years after the peak MPB outbreak, but most studies were conducted over the short-term (i.e., ≤6 years after the peak of MPB-induced tree mortality). Birds were the only taxa studied frequently; however, high variability existed among those studies to allow many inferences, although some patterns were evident. Avian studies concluded that cavity-nesting species responded more favorably to beetle-killed forests than species with open-cup nests, and species nesting in the shrub layer favored outbreak forests compared with ground and open-cup canopy nesters that generally showed mixed relationships. Bark-drilling species as a group clearly demonstrated a positive short-term association with MPB epidemics compared with that of other foraging assemblages. Cavity-nesting birds that do not consume bark beetles (i.e., secondary cavity-nesting species and nonbark-drilling woodpeckers) also exhibited some positive responses to MPB outbreaks, although not as pronounced or consistent as those of bark-drilling woodpeckers. Mammalian responses to MPB outbreaks were mixed. Studies consistently reported negative effects of MPB

  20. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Viboud

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: Our findings reveal significant variation in epidemic growth patterns across different infectious disease outbreaks and highlights that sub-exponential growth is a common phenomenon, especially for pathogens that are not airborne. Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes, or the early onset of interventions strategies, and consideration of “deceleration parameters” may be useful to refine existing mathematical transmission models and improve disease forecasts.

  1. Ongoing outbreak of dengue type 1 in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal: preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, C A; Clairouin, M; Seixas, G; Viveiros, B; Novo, M T; Silva, A C; Escoval, M T; Economopoulou, A

    2012-12-06

    Following the identification of two autochthonous cases of dengue type 1 on 3 October 2012, an outbreak of dengue fever has been reported in Madeira, Portugal. As of 25 November, 1,891 cases have been detected on the island where the vector Aedes aegypti had been established in some areas since 2005. This event represents the first epidemic of dengue fever in Europe since 1928 and concerted control measures have been initiated by local health authorities.

  2. Outbreak of avian influenza H7N3 on a turkey farm in the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Velkers, F.C.; Bouma, A.; Matthijs, M.G.R.; Koch, G.; Westendorp, S.T.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    This case report describes the course of an outbreak of avian influenza on a Dutch turkey farm. When clinical signs were observed their cause remained unclear. However, serum samples taken for the monitoring campaign launched during the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2003, showed that all the remaining turkeys were seropositive against an H7 strain of avian influenza virus, and the virus was subsequently isolated from stored carcases. The results of a reverse-transcriptase P...

  3. First isolation and genotyping of viruses from recent outbreaks of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) in Slovenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toplak, Ivan; Hostnik, Peter; Rihtaric, Danijela

    2010-01-01

    In November and December 2007, the virus causing viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) was detected in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss from 2 fish farms in Slovenia. During 2008 and 2009 the infection spread only among rainbow trout farms and 4 new outbreaks were confirmed. High mortality...... a reliable tool for fast routine genotyping in diagnostic laboratories. This is the first report of a natural epidemic associated with VHSV infection in Slovenia since the eradication of the disease in 1977....

  4. Cancerous patients and outbreak of Escherichia coli: an important issue in oncology

    OpenAIRE

    Joob, Beuy; Wiwanitkit, Viroj

    2014-01-01

    The widespread of the Escherichia coli outbreak in Europe becomes an important public concern at global level. The infection can be serious and might result in death. The retrospective literature review on this specific topic is performed. In this specific brief article, the author presented and discussed on the problem of Escherichia coli infection in the cancerous patients. This is an actual important issue in medical oncology for the scenario of Escherichia coli epidemic.

  5. Outbreaks source: A new mathematical approach to identify their possible location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buscema, Massimo; Grossi, Enzo; Breda, Marco; Jefferson, Tom

    2009-11-01

    Classical epidemiology has generally relied on the description and explanation of the occurrence of infectious diseases in relation to time occurrence of events rather than to place of occurrence. In recent times, computer generated dot maps have facilitated the modeling of the spread of infectious epidemic diseases either with classical statistics approaches or with artificial “intelligent systems”. Few attempts, however, have been made so far to identify the origin of the epidemic spread rather than its evolution by mathematical topology methods. We report on the use of a new artificial intelligence method (the H-PST Algorithm) and we compare this new technique with other well known algorithms to identify the source of three examples of infectious disease outbreaks derived from literature. The H-PST algorithm is a new system able to project a distances matrix of points (events) into a bi-dimensional space, with the generation of a new point, named hidden unit. This new hidden unit deforms the original Euclidean space and transforms it into a new space (cognitive space). The cost function of this transformation is the minimization of the differences between the original distance matrix among the assigned points and the distance matrix of the same points projected into the bi-dimensional map (or any different set of constraints). For many reasons we will discuss, the position of the hidden unit shows to target the outbreak source in many epidemics much better than the other classic algorithms specifically targeted for this task. Compared with main algorithms known in the location theory, the hidden unit was within yards of the outbreak source in the first example (the 2007 epidemic of Chikungunya fever in Italy). The hidden unit was located in the river between the two village epicentres of the spread exactly where the index case was living. Equally in the second (the 1967 foot and mouth disease epidemic in England), and the third (1854 London Cholera epidemic

  6. Clinical aspects of a nationwide epidemic of severe haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS in children

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    Gudmundsdottir Helga

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Report a nationwide epidemic of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC O103:H25 causing hemolytic uremic syndrome (D+HUS in children. Methods Description of clinical presentation, complications and outcome in a nationwide outbreak. Results Ten children (median age 4.3 years developed HUS during the outbreak. One of these was presumed to be a part of the outbreak without microbiological proof. Eight of the patients were oligoanuric and in need of dialysis. Median need for dialysis was 15 days; one girl did not regain renal function and received a kidney transplant. Four patients had seizures and/or reduced consciousness. Cerebral oedema and herniation caused the death of a 4-year-old boy. Two patients developed necrosis of colon with perforation and one of them developed non-autoimmune diabetes. Conclusion This outbreak of STEC was characterized by a high incidence of HUS among the infected children, and many developed severe renal disease and extrarenal complications. A likely explanation is that the O103:H25 (eae and stx2-positive strain was highly pathogen, and we suggest that this serotype should be looked for in patients with HUS caused by STEC, especially in severe forms or outbreaks.

  7. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Packer, Craig

    2008-06-25

    Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may become

  8. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Munson

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer. As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality

  9. The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Luquero, Francisco J; Naibei, Nathan; Touré, Brahima; Allan, Maya; Porten, Klaudia; Lessler, Justin; Rinaldo, Andrea; Azman, Andrew S

    2018-02-01

    Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa. We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in

  10. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romulus Breban

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza virus (AIV persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2-4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that infectious birds shed large concentrations of virions in the environment, where virions may persist for a long time. We thus propose that, in addition to direct fecal/oral transmission, birds may become infected by ingesting virions that have long persisted in the environment. We design a new host-pathogen model that combines within-season transmission dynamics, between-season migration and reproduction, and environmental variation. Analysis of the model yields three major results. First, environmental transmission provides a persistence mechanism within small communities where epidemics cannot be sustained by direct transmission only (i.e., communities smaller than the critical community size. Second, environmental transmission offers a parsimonious explanation of the 2-4 year periodicity of avian influenza epidemics. Third, very low levels of environmental transmission (i.e., few cases per year are sufficient for avian influenza to persist in populations where it would otherwise vanish.

  11. Optimal allocation of resources for suppressing epidemic spreading on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hanshuang; Li, Guofeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Hou, Zhonghuai

    2017-07-01

    Efficient allocation of limited medical resources is crucial for controlling epidemic spreading on networks. Based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we solve the optimization problem of how best to allocate the limited resources so as to minimize prevalence, providing that the curing rate of each node is positively correlated to its medical resource. By quenched mean-field theory and heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) theory, we prove that an epidemic outbreak will be suppressed to the greatest extent if the curing rate of each node is directly proportional to its degree, under which the effective infection rate λ has a maximal threshold λcopt=1 / , where is the average degree of the underlying network. For a weak infection region (λ ≳λcopt ), we combine perturbation theory with the Lagrange multiplier method (LMM) to derive the analytical expression of optimal allocation of the curing rates and the corresponding minimized prevalence. For a general infection region (λ >λcopt ), the high-dimensional optimization problem is converted into numerically solving low-dimensional nonlinear equations by the HMF theory and LMM. Counterintuitively, in the strong infection region the low-degree nodes should be allocated more medical resources than the high-degree nodes to minimize prevalence. Finally, we use simulated annealing to validate the theoretical results.

  12. Recent evolutionary history of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype B: Reconstruction of epidemic onset based on sequence distances to the common ancestor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukashov, Vladimir V.; Goudsmit, Jaap

    2002-01-01

    We obtained and studied HIV-1 sequences with a known sampling year from three outbreaks of the HIV-1 epidemic: 141 env V3 (270 nt) sampled between 1984 and 1992 and 117 pol prot/RT (804 nt) sequences sampled between 1986 and 1999 from Dutch homosexual men and injecting drug users (IDUs), as well as

  13. The First Epidemic and New-emerging Human Fascioliasis in Kermanshah (Western Iran and a Ten-year Follow Up, 1998-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Hatami

    2012-01-01

    Conclusions: It was the first case of human fascioliasis in west Iran and was a real epidemic and an emerging infectious disease for this area at that time. The clinical symptoms were less severe compared with other reports. Health education to inhabitants and health care workers can lead to rapid detection of such outbreaks.

  14. Suppressing epidemic spreading in multiplex networks with social-support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaolong; Wang, Ruijie; Tang, Ming; Cai, Shimin; Stanley, H. Eugene; Braunstein, Lidia A.

    2018-01-01

    Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must rely on resources from family or friends. We study the dynamics of disease spreading in social-contact multiplex networks when the recovery of infected nodes depends on resources from healthy neighbors in the social layer. We investigate how degree heterogeneity affects the spreading dynamics. Using theoretical analysis and simulations we find that degree heterogeneity promotes disease spreading. The phase transition of the infected density is hybrid and increases smoothly from zero to a finite small value at the first invasion threshold and then suddenly jumps at the second invasion threshold. We also find a hysteresis loop in the transition of the infected density. We further investigate how an overlap in the edges between two layers affects the spreading dynamics. We find that when the amount of overlap is smaller than a critical value the phase transition is hybrid and there is a hysteresis loop, otherwise the phase transition is continuous and the hysteresis loop vanishes. In addition, the edge overlap allows an epidemic outbreak when the transmission rate is below the first invasion threshold, but suppresses any explosive transition when the transmission rate is above the first invasion threshold.

  15. Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belant Jerrold L

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since its first occurrence in the New York City area during 1999, West Nile virus (WNV has spread rapidly across North America and has become a major public health concern in North America. By 2002, WNV was reported in 40 states and the District of Columbia with 4,156 human and 14,539 equine cases of infection. Mississippi had the highest human incidence rate of WNV during the 2002 epidemic in the United States. Epidemics of WNV can impose enormous impacts on local economies. Therefore, it is advantageous to predict human WNV risks for cost-effective controls of the disease and optimal allocations of limited resources. Understanding relationships between precipitation and WNV transmission is crucial for predicting the risk of the human WNV disease outbreaks under predicted global climate change scenarios. Methods We analyzed data on the human WNV incidences in the 82 counties of Mississippi in 2002, using standard morbidity ratio (SMR and Bayesian hierarchical models, to determine relationships between precipitation and human WNV risks. We also entertained spatial autocorrelations of human WNV risks with conditional autocorrelative (CAR models, implemented in WinBUGS 1.4.3. Results We observed an inverse relationship between county-level human WNV incidence risk and total annual rainfall during the previous year. Parameters representing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of human exposure to WNV improved model fit. Annual precipitation of the previous year was a predictor of spatial variation of WNV risk. Conclusions Our results have broad implications for risk assessment of WNV and forecasting WNV outbreaks. Assessing risk of vector-born infectious diseases will require understanding of complex ecological relationships. Based on the climatologically characteristic drought occurrence in the past and on climate model predictions for climate change and potentially greater drought occurrence in the future, we suggest that the

  16. Healthcare Workers Emotions, Perceived Stressors and Coping Strategies During a MERS-CoV Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, Imran; Khalid, Tabindeh J; Qabajah, Mohammed R; Barnard, Aletta G; Qushmaq, Ismael A

    2016-03-01

    Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at high risk of contracting Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during an epidemic. We explored the emotions, perceived stressors, and coping strategies of healthcare workers who worked during a MERS-CoV outbreak in our hospital. A cross-sectional descriptive survey design. A tertiary care hospital. HCWs (150) who worked in high risk areas during the April-May 2014 MERS-CoV outbreak that occurred in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. We developed and administered a "MERS-CoV staff questionnaire" to study participants. The questionnaire consisted of 5 sections with 72 questions. The sections evaluated hospital staffs emotions, perceived stressors, factors that reduced their stress, coping strategies, and motivators to work during future outbreaks. Responses were scored on a scale from 0-3. The varying levels of stress or effectiveness of measures were reported as mean and standard deviation, as appropriate. Completed questionnaires were returned by 117 (78%) of the participants. The results had many unique elements. HCWs ethical obligation to their profession pushed them to continue with their jobs. The main sentiments centered upon fear of personal safety and well-being of colleagues and family. Positive attitudes in the workplace, clinical improvement of infected colleagues, and stoppage of disease transmission among HCWs after adopting strict protective measures alleviated their fear and drove them through the epidemic. They appreciated recognition of their efforts by hospital management and expected similar acknowledgment, infection control guidance, and equipment would entice them to work during future epidemics. The MERS-CoV outbreak was a distressing time for our staff. Hospitals can enhance HCWs experiences during any future MERS-CoV outbreak by focusing on the above mentioned aspects. © 2016 Marshfield Clinic.

  17. Microsatellite typing and avidity analysis suggest a common source of infection in herds with epidemic Neospora caninum-associated bovine abortion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, W; Schares, S; Minke, L; Bärwald, A; Maksimov, A; Peters, M; Schulze, C; Müller, M; Conraths, F J; Schares, G

    2010-10-11

    Neosporosis is an important cause of reproductive failure in cattle worldwide. Two different abortion patterns associated with Neospora caninum infection have been observed in cattle herds: endemic and epidemic abortion outbreaks. The endemic pattern is characterized by an abortion problem in a herd persisting for several months or years, and is assumed to be caused by reactivation of a chronic infection. In epidemic outbreaks, abortions concentrate within a short period of time, most likely due to a recent point source exposure of naïve animals to N. caninum. The aim of the study was to characterize five N. caninum-associated epidemic abortion outbreaks in Germany by serological and molecular techniques, including a p38-avidity-ELISA and typing of N. caninum in clinical samples by multilocus-microsatellite analysis. DNA extracts from the brain of 18 N. caninum infected fetuses from epidemic abortion outbreaks were characterized using 10 N. caninum-microsatellite markers. Nested-PCR protocols were developed to amplify the marker regions MS1B, MS3, MS5, MS6A, MS6B, MS7, MS12 and MS21 from clinical samples for subsequent analysis by capillary electrophoresis. Microsatellites MS2 and MS10 were analyzed by previously reported sequencing techniques. Most dams which had aborted showed a low-avidity IgG response to the N. caninum p38-antigen, and in three of the five studied herds, the majority of the dams at risk, which had not aborted, had also low-avidity responses suggesting that infection with N. caninum had recently occurred in most animals. A common microsatellite pattern prevailed in all fetuses from each individual epidemic outbreak. This pattern was unique for each herd. Although the number of epidemic abortion outbreaks analyzed was limited, the observation of a common microsatellite pattern, accompanied by a low-avidity IgG response against N. caninum in the dams, supports the hypothesis of a recent infection from a common point source. The genetic diversity

  18. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M

    2016-10-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible-infectious-removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The

  19. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

    2016-01-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The

  20. The biennial cycle of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drazenovic Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The paper analyses the epidemic pattern of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV outbreaks in children in Croatia. Over a period of 11 consecutive winter seasons (1994–2005 3,435 inpatients from Zagreb County aged from infancy to 10 years who were hospitalised with acute respiratory tract infections were tested for RSV-infection. RSV was identified in nasopharyngeal secretions of patients by virus isolation in cell culture and by detection of viral antigen with monoclonal antibodies. In the Zagreb area, RSV outbreaks were proven to vary in a two-year cycle, which was repeated every 23–25 months. This biennial cycle comprised one larger and one smaller season. Climate factors correlated significantly with the number of RSV cases identified only in the large seasons, which suggests that the biennial cycle is likely to continue regardless of meteorological conditions. Knowledge of this biennial pattern should be useful in predicting the onset of RSV outbreaks in Croatia, and would facilitate planning for the prevention and control of RSV infections in the region.

  1. Socioeconomic factors and vulnerability to outbreaks of leptospirosis in Nicaragua.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacallao, Jorge; Schneider, Maria Cristina; Najera, Patricia; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Soto, Aida; Marquiño, Wilmer; Sáenz, Carlos; Jiménez, Eduardo; Moreno, Gilberto; Chávez, Octavio; Galan, Deise I; Espinal, Marcos A

    2014-08-15

    Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone zoonotic disease that occurs worldwide, with more than 500,000 human cases reported annually. It is influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the occurrence of outbreaks and the incidence of the disease. Critical areas and potential drivers for leptospirosis outbreaks have been identified in Nicaragua, where several conditions converge and create an appropriate scenario for the development of leptospirosis. The objectives of this study were to explore possible socioeconomic variables related to leptospirosis critical areas and to construct and validate a vulnerability index based on municipal socioeconomic indicators. Municipalities with lower socioeconomic status (greater unsatisfied basic needs for quality of the household and for sanitary services, and higher extreme poverty and illiteracy rates) were identified with the highest leptospirosis rates. The municipalities with highest local vulnerability index should be the priority for intervention. A distinction between risk given by environmental factors and vulnerability to risk given by socioeconomic conditions was shown as important, which also applies to the "causes of outbreaks" and "causes of cases".

  2. Mycobacterium massiliense outbreak after intramuscular injection, South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H J; Cho, Y; Lee, S; Kook, Y; Lee, D; Lee, J; Park, B J

    2012-10-01

    SUMMARY We conducted an epidemic investigation to discover the route of transmission and the host factors of an outbreak of post-injection abscesses. Of the 2984 patients who visited a single clinic, 77 cases were identified and 208 age- and sex-matched controls were selected for analysis. Injected medications per se were not found to be responsible, and a deviation from safe injection practice suggested the likelihood of diluent contamination. Therefore the injected medications were classified according to whether there was a need for a diluent, and two medications showed a statistically significant association, i.e. injection with pheniramine [adjusted odds ratios (aOR) 5·93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·97-11·87] and ribostamycin (aOR 47·95, 95% CI 11·08-207·53). However, when considered concurrently, pheniramine lost statistical significance (aOR 8·71, 95% CI 0·44-171·61) suggesting that normal saline was the causative agent of this outbreak. Epidemiological evidence strongly suggested that this post-injection outbreak was caused by saline contaminated with Mycobacterium massiliense without direct microbiological evidence.

  3. Characterization of Interventional Studies of the Cholera Epidemic in Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jessica; Birnbaum, Marvin L

    2018-04-01

    In October 2010, the Haitian Ministry of Public Health and Population (MSPP; Port au Prince, Haiti) reported a cholera epidemic caused by contamination of the Artibonite River by a United Nation Stabilization Mission camp. Interventional studies of the subsequent responses, including a descriptive Methods section and systematic approach, may be useful in facilitating comparisons and applying lessons learned to future outbreaks. The purpose of this study was to examine publicly available documents relating to the 2010 cholera outbreak to answer: (1) What information is publicly available on interventional studies conducted during the epidemic, and what was/were the impact(s)? and (2) Can the interventions be compared, and what lessons can be learned from their comparison? A PubMed (National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA) search was conducted using the parameters "Haiti" and "cholera." Studies were categorized as "interventional research," "epidemiological research," or "other." A distinction was made between studies and narrative reports. The PubMed search yielded 171 papers, 59 (34.0%) of which were epidemiological and 12 (7.0%) were interventional studies. The remaining 100 papers (59.0%) comprised largely of narrative, anecdotal descriptions. An expanded examination of publications by the World Health Organization (WHO; Geneva, Switzerland), the Center for Research in the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED; Brussels, Belgium), United States Agency for International Development (USAID; Washington, DC USA)-Development Experience Clearinghouse (DEC), and US National Library of Medicine's (NLM; Bethesda, Maryland USA) Disaster Literature databases yielded no additional interventional studies. The unstructured formats and differing levels of detail prohibited comparisons between interventions, even between those with a similar approach. Only two (17.0%) interventional studies included any impact data, although

  4. A climate-based spatiotemporal prediction for dengue fever epidemics: a case study in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.-L.; Yang, S.-J.; Lin, Y.-C.

    2012-04-01

    Dengue Fever (DF) has been identified by the World Health organization (WHO) as one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and sub-tropical areas. DF has been one of the most important epidemics in Taiwan which occur annually especially in southern Taiwan during summer and autumn. Most DF studies have focused mainly on temporal DF patterns and its close association with climatic covariates, whereas few studies have investigated the spatial DF patterns (spatial dependence and clustering) and composite space-time effects of the DF epidemics. The present study proposes a spatio-temporal DF prediction approach based on stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. Core and site-specific knowledge bases are considered, including climate and health datasets under conditions of uncertainty, space-time dependence functions, and a Poisson regression model of climatic variables contributing to DF occurrences in southern Taiwan during 2007, when the highest number of DF cases was recorded in the history of Taiwan epidemics (over 2000). The obtained results show that the DF outbreaks in the study area are highly influenced by climatic conditions. Furthermore, the analysis can provide the required "one-week-ahead" outbreak warnings based on spatio-temporal predictions of DF distributions. Therefore, the proposed analysis can provide the Taiwan Disease Control Agency with a valuable tool to timely identify, control, and even efficiently prevent DF spreading across space-time.

  5. A comprehensive database of the geographic spread of past human Ebola outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mylne, Adrian; Brady, Oliver J.; Huang, Zhi; Pigott, David M.; Golding, Nick; Kraemer, Moritz U.G.; Hay, Simon I.

    2014-01-01

    Ebola is a zoonotic filovirus that has the potential to cause outbreaks of variable magnitude in human populations. This database collates our existing knowledge of all known human outbreaks of Ebola for the first time by extracting details of their suspected zoonotic origin and subsequent human-to-human spread from a range of published and non-published sources. In total, 22 unique Ebola outbreaks were identified, composed of 117 unique geographic transmission clusters. Details of the index case and geographic spread of secondary and imported cases were recorded as well as summaries of patient numbers and case fatality rates. A brief text summary describing suspected routes and means of spread for each outbreak was also included. While we cannot yet include the ongoing Guinea and DRC outbreaks until they are over, these data and compiled maps can be used to gain an improved understanding of the initial spread of past Ebola outbreaks and help evaluate surveillance and control guidelines for limiting the spread of future epidemics. PMID:25984346

  6. Cholera Epidemics of the Past Offer New Insights Into an Old Enemy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Matthew; Perner, Mads Linnet; Pitzer, Virginia E; Andreasen, Viggo; Jensen, Peter K M; Simonsen, Lone

    2018-01-30

    Although cholera is considered the quintessential long-cycle waterborne disease, studies have emphasized the existence of short-cycle (food, household) transmission. We investigated singular Danish cholera epidemics (in 1853) to elucidate epidemiological parameters and modes of spread. Using time series data from cities with different water systems, we estimated the intrinsic transmissibility (R0). Accessing cause-specific mortality data, we studied clinical severity and age-specific impact. From physicians' narratives we established transmission chains and estimated serial intervals. Epidemics were seeded by travelers from cholera-affected cities; initial transmission chains involving household members and caretakers ensued. Cholera killed 3.4%-8.9% of the populations, with highest mortality among seniors (16%) and lowest in children (2.7%). Transmissibility (R0) was 1.7-2.6 and the serial interval was estimated at 3.7 days (95% confidence interval, 2.9-4.7 days). The case fatality ratio (CFR) was high (54%-68%); using R0 we computed an adjusted CFR of 4%-5%. Short-cycle transmission was likely critical to early secondary transmission in historic Danish towns. The outbreaks resembled the contemporary Haiti outbreak with respect to transmissibility, age patterns, and CFR, suggesting a role for broader hygiene/sanitation interventions to control contemporary outbreaks. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  7. Disease prevention versus data privacy: using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Tildesley

    Full Text Available The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock.

  8. A ‘post-honeymoon’ measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katelyn C. Corey

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Using a mathematical model with realistic demography, we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988–1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces, which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population growth or from logistical problems such as cold chain maintenance. We use the model to characterize the relationship between SIA frequency and SIA age range necessary to suppress measles outbreaks. If SIAs are less frequent, they must expand their target age range.

  9. SIS Epidemic Propagation on Hypergraphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodó, Ágnes; Katona, Gyula Y; Simon, Péter L

    2016-04-01

    Mathematical modelling of epidemic propagation on networks is extended to hypergraphs in order to account for both the community structure and the nonlinear dependence of the infection pressure on the number of infected neighbours. The exact master equations of the propagation process are derived for an arbitrary hypergraph given by its incidence matrix. Based on these, moment closure approximation and mean-field models are introduced and compared to individual-based stochastic simulations. The simulation algorithm, developed for networks, is extended to hypergraphs. The effects of hypergraph structure and the model parameters are investigated via individual-based simulation results.

  10. Lessons from the Ebola Outbreak: Action Items for Emerging Infectious Disease Preparedness and Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Aguirre, A Alonso; Bailey, Charles L; Baranova, Ancha V; Crooks, Andrew T; Croitoru, Arie; Delamater, Paul L; Gupta, Jhumka; Kehn-Hall, Kylene; Narayanan, Aarthi; Pierobon, Mariaelena; Rowan, Katherine E; Schwebach, J Reid; Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan; Sklarew, Dann M; Stefanidis, Anthony; Agouris, Peggy

    2016-03-01

    As the Ebola outbreak in West Africa wanes, it is time for the international scientific community to reflect on how to improve the detection of and coordinated response to future epidemics. Our interdisciplinary team identified key lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak that can be clustered into three areas: environmental conditions related to early warning systems, host characteristics related to public health, and agent issues that can be addressed through the laboratory sciences. In particular, we need to increase zoonotic surveillance activities, implement more effective ecological health interventions, expand prediction modeling, support medical and public health systems in order to improve local and international responses to epidemics, improve risk communication, better understand the role of social media in outbreak awareness and response, produce better diagnostic tools, create better therapeutic medications, and design better vaccines. This list highlights research priorities and policy actions the global community can take now to be better prepared for future emerging infectious disease outbreaks that threaten global public health and security.

  11. Risk and Outbreak Communication: Lessons from Taiwan's Experiences in the Post-SARS Era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Yu-Chen; Chen, Yu-Ling; Wei, Han-Ning; Yang, Yu-Wen; Chen, Ying-Hwei

    In addition to the impact of a disease itself, public reaction could be considered another outbreak to be controlled during an epidemic. Taiwan's experience with SARS in 2003 highlighted the critical role played by the media during crisis communication. After the SARS outbreak, Taiwan's Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) followed the WHO outbreak communication guidelines on trust, early announcements, transparency, informing the public, and planning, in order to reform its risk communication systems. This article describes the risk communication framework in Taiwan, which has been used to respond to the 2009-2016 influenza epidemics, Ebola in West Africa (2014-16), and MERS-CoV in South Korea (2015) during the post-SARS era. Many communication strategies, ranging from traditional media to social and new media, have been implemented to improve transparency in public communication and promote civic engagement. Taiwan CDC will continue to maintain the strengths of its risk communication systems and resolve challenges as they emerge through active evaluation and monitoring of public opinion to advance Taiwan's capacity in outbreak communication and control. Moreover, Taiwan CDC will continue to implement the IHR (2005) and to promote a global community working together to fight shared risks and to reach the goal of "One World, One Health."

  12. The Role of Public Knowledge, Resources, and Innovation in Responding to the Ebola Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstone, Brian J; Brown, Brandon

    2015-10-01

    Since the beginning of the recent Ebola outbreak, a sense of fear has developed among the public due to the novelty of our exposure to the virus and the ill-equipped nature of our health care systems. Media sensationalism, coupled with improper knowledge of Ebola, may have contributed to mass hysteria. Most support to tackle Ebola has been direct monetary aid. However, others are working on innovative methods to control the epidemic, including the development of rapid detection methods, experimental treatments, and a viable vaccine. Rapid screening and vaccine ideas are promising, but it is unlikely that they will be ready in the coming months. This raises the question of what other tools and technological innovation can be developed to effectively stem the spread of the outbreak. Although we hope the continued outpouring of aid and health care workers to West Africa will greatly reduce the impact of Ebola, communication, screenings, treatment, and vaccine are of central importance to stop this outbreak.

  13. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  14. Assessing the sustainability of individual behavior change against mosquitoes after the outbreak of a vector-borne disease in Mauritius: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smita Goorah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The island of Mauritius had not experienced any mosquito-borne diseases since the last malaria outbreak in the early 1980s. When the chikungunya fever epidemic affected the island in 2005-2006, the local population was unprepared against this mosquito-borne infection and officially 11, 000 people were affected. Authorities promptly set up public health campaigns and actively encouraged the public to take preventive actions against the mosquito vector. This study has been carried out to investigate whether the individual preventive interventions adopted to combat mosquitoes during the outbreak have been sustained two years following the outbreak in a specific rural locality. Ethical clearance was obtained from the Research Ethics Committee of the University of Mauritius. Data was collected using a door-to-door household survey in a small rural locality of Mauritius in December 2008 and January 2009. One person per household was interviewed and the sample size was 172. Sustainability of individual preventive interventions was determined by assessing the preventive measures adopted by people against mosquitoes prior to, during, and two years following the outbreak. Elimination of mosquito breeding places was the most practiced preventive measure adopted by people in all outbreak periods as compared to preventive measures against mosquito bites within and outside the house. An increase in all individual preventive measures was observed during the outbreak followed by a slow decline two years following the outbreak. An important finding was that all post-outbreak preventive measures were sustained above the pre-outbreak levels, especially so in the case of source reduction interventions. Individual efforts in the inter-epidemic period are important to mitigate the spread of a mosquito-borne infection and it is encouraging to observe in this case study that although individual preventive measures decline with time after an outbreak they are still

  15. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover......, this metric is able to identify the set of nodes which are more vulnerable under an epidemic attack. In addition, two applications of epidemic survivability are provided. First, we introduce epidemic criticality, a novel robustness metric for epidemic failure scenarios. A case study shows the utility...

  16. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models in telecommunicat......Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur...

  17. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  18. Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Mweya, Clement N.; Kimera, Sharadhuli I.; Mellau, Lesakit S. B.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects ruminants but also has the capacity to infect humans. Objective: To determine the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors in relation to their potential role in the virus transmission and maintenance in disease epidemic areas of Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania. Methods: A cross-sectional entomological investigation was carried out before the suspected RVF outbreak in October 2012. Mos...

  19. Learning from history, predicting the future: the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Clive; Harwood, Tom; Knight, Jon; Tomlinson, Isobel

    2011-01-01

    Expanding international trade and increased transportation are heavily implicated in the growing threat posed by invasive pathogens to biodiversity and landscapes. With trees and woodland in the UK now facing threats from a number of disease systems, this paper looks to historical experience with the Dutch elm disease (DED) epidemic of the 1970s to see what can be learned about an outbreak and attempts to prevent, manage and control it. The paper draws on an interdisciplinary investigation into the history, biology and policy of the epidemic. It presents a reconstruction based on a spatial modelling exercise underpinned by archival research and interviews with individuals involved in the attempted management of the epidemic at the time. The paper explores what, if anything, might have been done to contain the outbreak and discusses the wider lessons for plant protection. Reading across to present-day biosecurity concerns, the paper looks at the current outbreak of ramorum blight in the UK and presents an analysis of the unfolding epidemiology and policy of this more recent, and potentially very serious, disease outbreak. The paper concludes by reflecting on the continuing contemporary relevance of the DED experience at an important juncture in the evolution of plant protection policy. PMID:21624917

  20. [Analysis of a disease outbreak of brucellosis in slaughterhouse workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna Sánchez, A; Rodríguez de Cepeda, A; Suárez Morano, T

    1998-01-01

    The appearance of an exceptional number of cases of Brucellosis at the end of 1996 in workers at a slaughterhouse led us to suspect an epidemic outbreak among this group. This study shows the methodology followed in the analysis of this outbreak as well as the results obtained. 1.-Epidemiological description of the outbreak: number of animals with brucellosis slaughtered, collection of information from different sources on the number of those affected: from the mutual insurance company, the record of working days lost, an epidemiological monitoring system and a survey amongst the workers. 2.-A case and control study was designed in order to determine, firstly, non-occupational risks--ingestion of fresh cheese or milk and care of animals--and secondly, occupational risks, depending on the job normally undertaken. 3.-To verify this a retrospective cohort study was designed. The exposed group was made up by workers in the slaughter area and the unexposed group comprised the remainder: any worker giving a positive result to the Rose of Bengal test and IgM brucellosis antibodies in serum was considered as a case. The description of the outbreak enabled us to establish that the cases occurred at the moment when most animals were slaughtered, that only occupational risks were relevant, that there were more symptomatic cases than notified ones, and that the slaughter line operators showed higher rates of attack than the remainder of the workers. This study analyses the possible causal relationship between analyzed exposure and the appearance of cases of brucellosis in workers--a fact which backs the existing scientific evidence on the importance of the respiratory tract as a mechanism of transmission of this disease in the workplace.

  1. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  2. Whole-Genome Characterization of Epidemic Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C and Resurgence of Serogroup W, Niger, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretz, Cecilia B.; Retchless, Adam C.; Sidikou, Fati; Issaka, Bassira; Ousmane, Sani; Schwartz, Stephanie; Tate, Ashley H.; Pana, Assimawè; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Nzeyimana, Innocent; Nse, Ricardo Obama; Deghmane, Ala-Eddine; Hong, Eva; Brynildsrud, Ola Brønstad; Novak, Ryan T.; Meyer, Sarah A.; Oukem-Boyer, Odile Ouwe Missi; Ronveaux, Olivier; Caugant, Dominique A.; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir

    2016-01-01

    In 2015, Niger reported the largest epidemic of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC) meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. The NmC epidemic coincided with serogroup W (NmW) cases during the epidemic season, resulting in a total of 9,367 meningococcal cases through June 2015. To clarify the phylogenetic association, genetic evolution, and antibiotic determinants of the meningococcal strains in Niger, we sequenced the genomes of 102 isolates from this epidemic, comprising 81 NmC and 21 NmW isolates. The genomes of 82 isolates were completed, and all 102 were included in the analysis. All NmC isolates had sequence type 10217, which caused the outbreaks in Nigeria during 2013–2014 and for which a clonal complex has not yet been defined. The NmC isolates from Niger were substantially different from other NmC isolates collected globally. All NmW isolates belonged to clonal complex 11 and were closely related to the isolates causing recent outbreaks in Africa. PMID:27649262

  3. Porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus with a recombinant S gene detected in Hungary, 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkó, Anna; Biksi, Imre; Cságola, Attila; Tuboly, Tamás; Kiss, Krisztián; Ursu, Krisztina; Dán, Ádám

    2017-06-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) can cause a severe enteric disease affecting pigs of all ages. In January 2016, diarrhoea with occasional vomiting was observed in a small pig farm in Hungary. All animals became affected, while mortality (of up to 30%) was only seen in piglets. Samples from different age groups and the carcass of a piglet were examined by various methods including pathology, bacteriology and molecular biology. PEDV was confirmed by PCR and its whole genome sequence was determined. The sequence PEDV HUN/5031/2016 showed high identity with recently reported European viruses. Differences were found mostly in the S gene, where recombination was detected with a newly identified and already recombinant swine enteric coronavirus (Se-CoV) from Italy. The present report describes the first porcine epidemic diarrhoea outbreak in Hungary after many years and gives an insight into the genetics of the Hungarian PEDV.

  4. Explosive HIV-1 subtype B' epidemics in Asia driven by geographic and risk group founder events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue; Uenishi, Rie; Hase, Saiki; Liao, Huanan; Li, Xiao-Jie; Tsuchiura, Takayo; Tee, Kok Keng; Pybus, Oliver G; Takebe, Yutaka

    2010-07-05

    We explored the timescale, spatial spread, and risk group population structure of HIV-1 subtype B', the cause of explosive blood-borne HIV-1 epidemics among injecting drug users (IDUs) and former plasma donors (FPDs) in Asia. Sequences from FPDs in China formed a distinct monophyletic cluster within subtype B'. Further analysis revealed that subtype B' was founded by a single lineage of pandemic subtype B around 1985. Subsequently, the FPD cluster appears to have derived from a single subtype B' lineage around 1991, corroborating the hypothesis that FPD outbreaks stemmed from the preceding epidemic among IDUs in Southeast Asia, most likely from the Golden-Triangle region. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. How the distance between regional and human mobility behavior affect the epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Minna; Han, She; Sun, Mei; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    The distance between different regions has a lot of impact on the individuals' mobility behavior. Meanwhile, the individuals' mobility could greatly affect the epidemic propagation way. By researching the individuals' mobility behavior, we establish the coupled dynamic model for individual mobility and transmission of infectious disease. The basic reproduction number is theoretically obtained according to the next-generation matrix method. Through this study, we may get that the stability state of the epidemic system will be prolonged under a higher commuting level. The infection density is almost the same in different regions over a sufficiently long time. The results show that, due to the individual movement, the origin of virus can only speed up or delay the outbreak of infectious diseases, however, it have little impact on the final infection size.

  6. Ebola epidemic exposes the pathology of the global economic and political system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, David; Sengupta, Amit; Scott, Vera

    2015-01-01

    While the current Ebola epidemic spiraled out of control to become the biggest in history, the global public health response has been criticized as "too little, too late." Many, like the World Health Organization, are asking what lessons have been learned from this epidemic. We present an analysis of the political economy of this Ebola outbreak that reveals the importance of addressing the social determinants that facilitated the exposure of populations, previously unaffected by Ebola Virus Disease, to infection and restricted the capacity for an effective medical response. To prevent further such crises, the global public health community has a responsibility to advocate for health system investment and development and for fundamental pro-poor changes to economic and power relations in the region. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Zika virus infection in Vietnam: current epidemic, strain origin, spreading risk, and perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Dinh-Toi; Ngoc, Vo Truong Nhu; Tao, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Zika virus infection and its associated microcephaly have being receiving global concern. This infection has spread widely since the first outbreak was recorded in Africa in 1952. Now, it has been reported in over 70 countries on five continents including Africa, North and South America, Asia, and Europe. Vietnam is one of the most recent countries which had cases of Zika virus infection at the end of 2016. This country has also reported the first case of a microcephaly-born baby which was probably linked to Zika virus infection. However, information on the Zika virus epidemic in Vietnam is still limited. This brief report intends to update the current Zika virus epidemic, and to discuss challenges and perspectives in controlling this infection in Vietnam.

  8. Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qingyu; Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

    2016-01-01

    The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian.

  9. Epidemic corruption: a bio-economic homology

    OpenAIRE

    Hathroubi, Salem

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to study corruption as an epidemic phenomenon using the epidemic diffusion model of Kermack and Mc-Kendrick (1927). We seek to determine the dynamics of corruption and its impact on the composition of the population at a given time. We determine a threshold epidemiological corruption based on the approximation of the honest population.

  10. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  11. Reemerging threat of epidemic typhus in Algeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokrani, K; Fournier, P E; Dalichaouche, M; Tebbal, S; Aouati, A; Raoult, D

    2004-08-01

    We report a case of epidemic typhus in a patient from the Batna region of Algeria, who presented with generalized febrile exanthema. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed by serological cross-adsorption followed by Western blotting. Our report emphasizes the threat of epidemic typhus in the highlands of Algeria.

  12. Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strains Potentially Involved in the TB Epidemic in Sweden a Century Ago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenheit, Ramona; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Pennhag, Alexandra; Jonsson, Jerker; Hoffner, Sven; Couvin, David; Koivula, Tuija; Rastogi, Nalin; Källenius, Gunilla

    2012-01-01

    A hundred years ago the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) in Sweden was one of the highest in the world. In this study we conducted a population-based search for distinct strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolated from patients born in Sweden before 1945. Many of these isolates represent the M. tuberculosis complex population that fueled the TB epidemic in Sweden during the first half of the 20th century. Methods Genetic relationships between strains that caused the epidemic and present day strains were studied by spoligotyping and restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results The majority of the isolates from the elderly population were evolutionary recent Principal Genetic Group (PGG)2/3 strains (363/409 or 88.8%), and only a low proportion were ancient PGG1 strains (24/409 or 5.9%). Twenty-two were undefined. The isolates demonstrated a population where the Euro-American superlineage dominated; in particular with Haarlem (41.1%) and T (37.7%) spoligotypes and only 21.2% belonged to other spoligotype families. Isolates from the elderly population clustered much less frequently than did isolates from a young control group population. Conclusions A closely knit pool of PGG2/3 strains restricted to Sweden and its immediate neighbours appears to have played a role in the epidemic, while PGG1 strains are usually linked to migrants in todaýs Sweden. Further studies of these outbreak strains may give indications of why the epidemic waned. PMID:23056484

  13. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl [Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines); National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101 (Philippines)

    2015-05-15

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  14. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl

    2015-01-01

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks

  15. Social and economic influences on human behavioural response in an emerging epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phang, P.; Wiwatanapataphee, B.; Wu, Y. H.

    2017-10-01

    The human behavioural changes have been recognized as an important key in shaping the disease spreading and determining the success of control measures in the course of epidemic outbreaks. However, apart from cost-benefit considerations, in reality, people are heterogeneous in their preferences towards adopting certain protective actions to reduce their risk of infection, and social norms have a function in individuals’ decision making. Here, we studied the interplay between the epidemic dynamics, imitation dynamics and the heterogeneity of individual protective behavioural response under the considerations of both economic and social factors, with a simple mathematical compartmental model and multi-population game dynamical replicator equations. We assume that susceptibles in different subpopulations have different preferences in adopting either normal or altered behaviour. By incorporating both intra- and inter-group social pressure, the outcome of the strategy distribution depends on the initial proportion of susceptible with normal and altered strategies in both subpopulations. The increase of additional cost to susceptible with altered behaviour will discourage people to take up protective actions and hence results in higher epidemic final size. For a specific cost of altered behaviour, the social group pressure could be a “double edge sword”, though. We conclude that the interplays between individual protective behaviour adoption, imitation and epidemic dynamics are necessarily complex if both economic and social factors act on populations with existing preferences.

  16. Serological and genomic evidence of Rift Valley fever virus during inter-epidemic periods in Mauritania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rissmann, M; Eiden, M; El Mamy, B O; Isselmou, K; Doumbia, B; Ziegler, U; Homeier-Bachmann, T; Yahya, B; Groschup, M H

    2017-04-01

    Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an emerging pathogen of major concern throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, affecting both livestock and humans. In the past recurrent epidemics were reported in Mauritania and studies focused on the analysis of samples from affected populations during acute outbreaks. To verify characteristics and presence of RVFV during non-epidemic periods we implemented a multi-stage serological and molecular analysis. Serum samples of small ruminants, cattle and camels were obtained from Mauritania during an inter-epidemic period in 2012-2013. This paper presents a comparative analysis of potential variations and shifts of antibody presence and the capability of inter-epidemic infections in Mauritanian livestock. We observed distinct serological differences between tested species (seroprevalence: small ruminants 3·8%, cattle 15·4%, camels 32·0%). In one single bovine from Nouakchott, a recent RVF infection could be identified by the simultaneous detection of IgM antibodies and viral RNA. This study indicates the occurrence of a low-level enzootic RVFV circulation in livestock in Mauritania. Moreover, results indicate that small ruminants can preferably act as sentinels for RVF surveillance.

  17. Emergence and global spread of epidemic healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Miao; Miyajima, Fabio; Roberts, Paul; Ellison, Louise; Pickard, Derek J; Martin, Melissa J; Connor, Thomas R; Harris, Simon R; Fairley, Derek; Bamford, Kathleen B; D'Arc, Stephanie; Brazier, Jon; Brown, Derek; Coia, John E; Douce, Gill; Gerding, Dale; Kim, Hee Jung; Koh, Tse Hsien; Kato, Haru; Senoh, Mitsutoshi; Louie, Tom; Michell, Stephen; Butt, Emma; Peacock, Sharon J; Brown, Nick M; Riley, Tom; Songer, Glen; Wilcox, Mark; Pirmohamed, Munir; Kuijper, Ed; Hawkey, Peter; Wren, Brendan W; Dougan, Gordon; Parkhill, Julian; Lawley, Trevor D

    2013-01-01

    Epidemic C. difficile (027/BI/NAP1) has rapidly emerged in the past decade as the leading cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhea worldwide. However, the key events in evolutionary history leading to its emergence and the subsequent patterns of global spread remain unknown. Here, we define the global population structure of C. difficile 027/BI/NAP1 using whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. We show that two distinct epidemic lineages, FQR1 and FQR2, not one as previously thought, emerged in North America within a relatively short period after acquiring the same fluoroquinolone resistance-conferring mutation and a highly related conjugative transposon. The two epidemic lineages showed distinct patterns of global spread, and the FQR2 lineage spread more widely, leading to healthcare-associated outbreaks in the UK, continental Europe and Australia. Our analysis identifies key genetic changes linked to the rapid transcontinental dissemination of epidemic C. difficile 027/BI/NAP1 and highlights the routes by which it spreads through the global healthcare system.

  18. Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains potentially involved in the TB epidemic in Sweden a century ago.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona Groenheit

    Full Text Available UNLABELLED: A hundred years ago the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB in Sweden was one of the highest in the world. In this study we conducted a population-based search for distinct strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolated from patients born in Sweden before 1945. Many of these isolates represent the M. tuberculosis complex population that fueled the TB epidemic in Sweden during the first half of the 20(th century. METHODS: Genetic relationships between strains that caused the epidemic and present day strains were studied by spoligotyping and restriction fragment length polymorphism. RESULTS: The majority of the isolates from the elderly population were evolutionary recent Principal Genetic Group (PGG2/3 strains (363/409 or 88.8%, and only a low proportion were ancient PGG1 strains (24/409 or 5.9%. Twenty-two were undefined. The isolates demonstrated a population where the Euro-American superlineage dominated; in particular with Haarlem (41.1% and T (37.7% spoligotypes and only 21.2% belonged to other spoligotype families. Isolates from the elderly population clustered much less frequently than did isolates from a young control group population. CONCLUSIONS: A closely knit pool of PGG2/3 strains restricted to Sweden and its immediate neighbours appears to have played a role in the epidemic, while PGG1 strains are usually linked to migrants in todaýs Sweden. Further studies of these outbreak strains may give indications of why the epidemic waned.

  19. Forecasting Epidemics Through Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Dependent Transmission Rates Using the SEIR Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, Alexandra; deCamp, Linda; Chowell, Gerardo

    2017-05-02

    Deterministic and stochastic methods relying on early case incidence data for forecasting epidemic outbreaks have received increasing attention during the last few years. In mathematical terms, epidemic forecasting is an ill-posed problem due to instability of parameter identification and limited available data. While previous studies have largely estimated the time-dependent transmission rate by assuming specific functional forms (e.g., exponential decay) that depend on a few parameters, here we introduce a novel approach for the reconstruction of nonparametric time-dependent transmission rates by projecting onto a finite subspace spanned by Legendre polynomials. This approach enables us to effectively forecast future incidence cases, the clear advantage over recovering the transmission rate at finitely many grid points within the interval where the data are currently available. In our approach, we compare three regularization algorithms: variational (Tikhonov's) regularization, truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD), and modified TSVD in order to determine the stabilizing strategy that is most effective in terms of reliability of forecasting from limited data. We illustrate our methodology using simulated data as well as case incidence data for various epidemics including the 1918 influenza pandemic in San Francisco and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

  20. Molecular Epidemiology and Antibiotic Susceptibility of Vibrio cholerae Associated with a Large Cholera Outbreak in Ghana in 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eibach, Daniel; Herrera-León, Silvia; Gil, Horacio; Hogan, Benedikt; Ehlkes, Lutz; Adjabeng, Michael; Kreuels, Benno; Nagel, Michael; Opare, David; Fobil, Julius N; May, Jürgen

    2016-05-01

    Ghana is affected by regular cholera epidemics and an annual average of 3,066 cases since 2000. In 2014, Ghana experienced one of its largest cholera outbreaks within a decade with more than 20,000 notified infections. In order to attribute this rise in cases to a newly emerging strain or to multiple simultaneous outbreaks involving multi-clonal strains, outbreak isolates were characterized, subtyped and compared to previous epidemics in 2011 and 2012. Serotypes, biotypes, antibiotic susceptibilities were determined for 92 Vibrio cholerae isolates collected in 2011, 2012 and 2014 from Southern Ghana. For a subgroup of 45 isolates pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, multilocus sequence typing and multilocus-variable tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) were performed. Eighty-nine isolates (97%) were identified as ctxB (classical type) positive V. cholerae O1 biotype El Tor and three (3%) isolates were cholera toxin negative non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae. Among the selected isolates only sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim resistance was detectable in 2011, while 95% of all 2014 isolates showed resistance towards sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim, ampicillin and reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin. MLVA achieved the highest subtype discrimination, revealing 22 genotypes with one major outbreak cluster in each of the three outbreak years. Apart from those clusters genetically distant genotypes circulate during each annual epidemic. This analysis suggests different endemic reservoirs of V. cholerae in Ghana with distinct annual outbreak clusters accompanied by the occurrence of genetically distant genotypes. Preventive measures for cholera transmission should focus on aquatic reservoirs. Rapidly emerging multidrug resistance must be monitored closely.

  1. Self-mating in the definitive host potentiates clonal outbreaks of the apicomplexan parasites Sarcocystis neurona and Toxoplasma gondii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jered M Wendte

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Tissue-encysting coccidia, including Toxoplasma gondii and Sarcocystis neurona, are heterogamous parasites with sexual and asexual life stages in definitive and intermediate hosts, respectively. During its sexual life stage, T. gondii reproduces either by genetic out-crossing or via clonal amplification of a single strain through self-mating. Out-crossing has been experimentally verified as a potent mechanism capable of producing offspring possessing a range of adaptive and virulence potentials. In contrast, selfing and other life history traits, such as asexual expansion of tissue-cysts by oral transmission among intermediate hosts, have been proposed to explain the genetic basis for the clonal population structure of T. gondii. In this study, we investigated the contributing roles self-mating and sexual recombination play in nature to maintain clonal population structures and produce or expand parasite clones capable of causing disease epidemics for two tissue encysting parasites. We applied high-resolution genotyping against strains isolated from a T. gondii waterborne outbreak that caused symptomatic disease in 155 immune-competent people in Brazil and a S. neurona outbreak that resulted in a mass mortality event in Southern sea otters. In both cases, a single, genetically distinct clone was found infecting outbreak-exposed individuals. Furthermore, the T. gondii outbreak clone was one of several apparently recombinant progeny recovered from the local environment. Since oocysts or sporocysts were the infectious form implicated in each outbreak, the expansion of the epidemic clone can be explained by self-mating. The results also show that out-crossing preceded selfing to produce the virulent T. gondii clone. For the tissue encysting coccidia, self-mating exists as a key adaptation potentiating the epidemic expansion and transmission of newly emerged parasite clones that can profoundly shape parasite population genetic structures or cause

  2. Molecular Epidemiology and Antibiotic Susceptibility of Vibrio cholerae Associated with a Large Cholera Outbreak in Ghana in 2014.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Eibach

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Ghana is affected by regular cholera epidemics and an annual average of 3,066 cases since 2000. In 2014, Ghana experienced one of its largest cholera outbreaks within a decade with more than 20,000 notified infections. In order to attribute this rise in cases to a newly emerging strain or to multiple simultaneous outbreaks involving multi-clonal strains, outbreak isolates were characterized, subtyped and compared to previous epidemics in 2011 and 2012.Serotypes, biotypes, antibiotic susceptibilities were determined for 92 Vibrio cholerae isolates collected in 2011, 2012 and 2014 from Southern Ghana. For a subgroup of 45 isolates pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, multilocus sequence typing and multilocus-variable tandem repeat analysis (MLVA were performed. Eighty-nine isolates (97% were identified as ctxB (classical type positive V. cholerae O1 biotype El Tor and three (3% isolates were cholera toxin negative non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae. Among the selected isolates only sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim resistance was detectable in 2011, while 95% of all 2014 isolates showed resistance towards sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim, ampicillin and reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin. MLVA achieved the highest subtype discrimination, revealing 22 genotypes with one major outbreak cluster in each of the three outbreak years. Apart from those clusters genetically distant genotypes circulate during each annual epidemic.This analysis suggests different endemic reservoirs of V. cholerae in Ghana with distinct annual outbreak clusters accompanied by the occurrence of genetically distant genotypes. Preventive measures for cholera transmission should focus on aquatic reservoirs. Rapidly emerging multidrug resistance must be monitored closely.

  3. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2016-01-01

    mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results...... datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic......Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence...

  4. Epidemics with Multistrain Interactions: Cross Immunity and Antibody-Dependent Enhancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, Simone; Shaw, Leah

    2008-03-01

    Dynamics of epidemic spread is a problem of global interest. In this work we investigate the dynamical properties of a multistrain disease in a population where the strains interact via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and cross immunity. ADE is a property of some multistrain diseases, such as dengue fever and Ebola, in which the antibodies generated by a primary infection with a strain tend to increase the infectiousness of a secondary infection with a different strain. After a primary infection, cross immunity provides temporary reduced susceptibility to the other strains. The presence of chaotic outbreaks and desynchronization between strains has already been observed in a model with no cross immunity if the ADE is sufficiently strong. The addition of weak cross immunity provides a stabilizing effect, while strong cross immunity leads to large amplitude chaotic outbreaks. A stochastic version of the model is also considered.

  5. An integrated web system to support veterinary activities in Italy for the management of information in epidemic emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iannetti, S; Savini, L; Palma, D; Calistri, P; Natale, F; Di Lorenzo, A; Cerella, A; Giovannini, A

    2014-03-01

    The management of public health emergencies is improved by quick, exhaustive and standardized flow of data on disease outbreaks, by using specific tools for data collection, registration and analysis. In this context, the National Information System for the Notification of Outbreaks of Animal Diseases (SIMAN) has been developed in Italy to collect and share data on the notifications of outbreaks of animal diseases. SIMAN is connected through web services to the national database of animals and holdings (BDN) and has been integrated with tools for the management of epidemic emergencies. The website has been updated with a section dedicated to the contingency planning in case of epidemic emergency. EpiTrace is one such useful tool also integrated in the BDN and based on the Social Network Analysis (SNA) and on network epidemiological models. This tool gives the possibility of assessing the risk associated to holdings and animals on the basis of their trade, in order to support the veterinary services in tracing back and forward the animals in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    epidemic. However, follow-ups of short duration may, in part, explain the apparent break or decrease in the obesity epidemic. On the other hand, a single focus on body mass index (BMI) ⩾25 or ⩾30 kg m(-)(2) is likely to mask a real increase in the obesity epidemic. And, in both children and adults, trends......Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look...... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  7. Dengue severity associated with age and a new lineage of dengue virus-type 2 during an outbreak in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Priscila Conrado Guerra; Sampaio, Simone Alves Faria; da Costa, Nieli Rodrigues; de Mendonça, Marcos Cesar Lima; Lima, Monique da Rocha Queiroz; Araujo, Saraiva Eliane M; dos Santos, Flávia Barreto; Simões, Jaqueline Basto Santos; Gonçalves, Bianca de Santis; Nogueira, Rita Maria Ribeiro; de Filippis, Ana Maria Bispo

    2016-07-01

    Dengue virus-type 2 (DENV-2) caused three outbreaks, in the years 1990, 1998, and 2008, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The 2008 outbreak was the most severe in reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. To investigate virological and epidemiological factors that may have contributed to the pathogenic profile of 2008 epidemic, 102 patients sera obtained during the epidemic and inter-epidemic periods of three outbreaks were analysed by qRT-PCR to estimate viremia levels and their correlation with the clinical, immunological, and demographic patient characteristics. DENV-2 isolates from the outbreaks were sequenced. Two DENV-2 lineages (I and II) of the American/Asian genotype were confirmed, each exclusive for 1990-2002 and 2007-2011, respectively. The mean viremia level in the 2008 samples was two orders of magnitude higher than that of the 1990-2002 samples. Severe dengue cases increased from 31% in 1990-2002 to 69% in 2007-2011; in patients aged ≤15 years, from 3% in 1990-2002 to 37% in 2007-2011. The DENV-2 lineage II and younger age significantly contributed to the pathogenic profile of 2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Familial epidemic of meningococcal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smilović, V; Vrbanec-Megla, L; Payerl-Pal, M; Puntarić, D; Baklaić, Z

    1998-03-01

    Two closely related boys from the same house hold (Home 1), aged two and three, were affected with fulminant meningococcal sepsis known as Waterhouse-Friderichsen syndrome. Neisseria meningitidis serogorup B was isolated from their blood and cerebrospinal fluid. The two-year-old boy died one day after the onset of the disease. Epidemiological examination of contacts and pharyngeal swabs were performed in 14 persons from the household, all of them relatives of the affected children, as well as in a number of other contacts. Chemoprophylaxis with cotrimoxazole was simultaneously administered to all contacts. Family histories revealed that two contacts from the household where the patients did not live (Home 2) were inadvertently omitted. Subsequent examinations, following a report of another contagious disease (salmonelosis), revealed that these two persons were Neisseria meningitidis carriers, together with another one in the same household. The carriers most probably caused the infection of a third, five-year-old boy, the deceased boy's brother (Home 1) who also developed fulminant meningococcal sepsis. The failure to take the appropriate prophylaxis led to a prolonged carrier state in the carrier from the second household. Repeated pharyngeal swab sampling revealed two more carriers from both households that had previously been negative. Control of the epidemic was achieved after 5 weeks by repeated and controlled chemoprophylaxis with ciprofloxacin, and by repeated epidemiological examinations, disinfection, and daily health surveillance by the Sanitary Inspectorate. This extremely rare instance of a familial epidemic with three infected persons emphasizes the need for consistent chemoprophylaxis in meningococcal disease contacts.

  9. Impetigo in epidemic and nonepidemic phases: an incidence study over 4(1/2) years in a general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rørtveit, S; Rortveit, G

    2007-07-01

    Little is known about incidence and natural variation of impetigo in general populations. To investigate the natural course of impetigo in a well-defined population, and to study the resistance pattern of the causal bacteria over time. This is a population-based incidence study in Austevoll, an island community of 4457 inhabitants in Norway, in the years 2001-2005. Incidence rates are given as events per person-year. Epidemic periods were identified by statistical process-control analyses. The incidence rate of impetigo for the whole study period was 0.017 events per person-year, corresponding to a total of 334 cases. The incidence rates were 0.009, 0.026, 0.019, 0.016 and 0.009 in the years 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, respectively. Three epidemics were identified, starting in August of 2002, 2003 and 2004, lasting for 11, 11 and 5 weeks, respectively. Incidence rates in these epidemic periods were 0.099, 0.045 and 0.074, respectively. In epidemic periods, Staphylococcus aureus was the causal bacterium in 89% (117/132) of cases, while this proportion was 68% (84/123) in nonepidemic periods (P impetigo cases in epidemic and nonepidemic periods, respectively (P impetigo cases (152/201, 76%) differed significantly from fusidic acid resistance in other infections (18/116, 16%) (P < 0.01). Distinctive epidemic outbreaks occurred during the summer of three of the five follow-up years. In outbreaks, S. aureus was more frequently the causal agent and the sensitivity to fusidic acid decreased significantly.

  10. The influenza epidemic of 1918 and the adivasis of Western India

    OpenAIRE

    Hardiman, David

    2012-01-01

    The influenza epidemic of 1918 was the single worst outbreak of this disease known in history. This article examines an area of western India that was affected very badly—that of a tract inhabited by impoverished indigenous peoples, who are known in India as adivasis. The reasons for this are discussed. Some oral accounts help to bring out the enduring memory of that terrible time. The general health of the adivasis and the existing medical facilities in this area are examined. Attempts to ch...

  11. Stochastic persistence and stationary distribution in an SIS epidemic model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Wenjuan; Cai, Yongli; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2018-02-01

    This paper aims to study an SIS epidemic model with media coverage from a general deterministic model to a stochastic differential equation with environment fluctuation. Mathematically, we use the Markov semigroup theory to prove that the basic reproduction number R0s can be used to control the dynamics of stochastic system. Epidemiologically, we show that environment fluctuation can inhibit the occurrence of the disease, namely, in the case of disease persistence for the deterministic model, the disease still dies out with probability one for the stochastic model. So to a great extent the stochastic perturbation under media coverage affects the outbreak of the disease.

  12. Autochthonous epidemic typhus associated with Bartonella quintana bacteremia in a homeless person.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badiaga, Sékéné; Brouqui, Philippe; Raoult, Didier

    2005-05-01

    Trench fever, a louse-borne disease caused by Bartonella quintana, is reemerging in homeless persons. Epidemic typhus is another life-threatening louse-borne disease caused by Rickettsia prowazekii and known to occur in conditions of war, famine, refugee camps, cold weather, poverty, or lapses in public health. We report the first case of seroconversion to R. prowazekii in a homeless person of Marseilles, France. This was associated with B. quintana bacteremia. Although no outbreaks of typhus have been notified yet in the homeless population, this disease is likely to reemerge in such situation.

  13. Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Tomás; Lozano, Jose Eugenio; Meerhoff, Tamara; Snacken, René; Mott, Joshua; Ortiz de Lejarazu, Raul; Nunes, Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Vega et al. (2012) Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 546–558. Background  Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. Objectives  (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza‐like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. Methods  The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross‐validation procedure. Results  The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0–4·5). Conclusions  The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe. PMID:22897919

  14. Trichinellosis epidemics in AP Vojvodina in the period 2000-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šeguljev Zorica

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the observed decade, 1300 cases of trichinellosis were registered in Vojvodina, including three with a lethal outcome. The lethality was 0.23%. The incidences of trichinellosis ranged from 2.2/100,000 to 13.6/100,000. The rate of incidence depends both on the number of epidemics and the size of the epidemic reported in a year. Most incidences were reported in 2002 and 2005, as a consequence of the spread of trichinellosis through the purchase of infested food. The epidemic of trichinellosis in the Middle Banat district that started at the end of 2001 is considered to be the largest outbreak of human trichinellosis in Vojvodina, when 313 people got sick. In most of the cases the affected people reported they had eaten smoked sausages. The high incidence of trichinellosis in 2005 was a consequence of three thrichinellosis outbreaks that had been spreading through infested smoked sausages originating from illegal production and trade. More than 200 cases of trichinellosis were reported in Vojvodina. Today, Srem is still considered a hyperendemic area, because more than 30% of all the epidemics occur in this area. The available data indicate that trichinellosis is spread all over Vojvodina and that the absence of control results in the risk from the incidence of human trichinellosis. In many European countries the epidemiological situation is stable, but in our country trichinellosis is the most important zoonotic disease. This unstable epidemiological situation is the consequence of the widespread infection, culinary customs, and the fact that there is inadequate control of meat and meat products in households and illegal trade.

  15. Widespread epidemic cholera caused by a restricted subset of Vibrio cholerae clones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, S; Thomson, N; Mutreja, A; Piarroux, R

    2014-05-01

    Since 1817, seven cholera pandemics have plagued humankind. As the causative agent, Vibrio cholerae, is autochthonous in the aquatic ecosystem and some studies have revealed links between outbreaks and fluctuations in climatic and aquatic conditions, it has been widely assumed that cholera epidemics are triggered by environmental factors that promote the growth of local bacterial reservoirs. However, mounting epidemiological findings and genome sequence analysis of clinical isolates have indicated that epidemics are largely unassociated with most of the V. cholerae strains in aquatic ecosystems. Instead, only a specific subset of V. cholerae El Tor 'types' appears to be responsible for current epidemics. A recent report examining the evolution of a variety of V. cholerae strains indicates that the current pandemic is monophyletic and originated from a single ancestral clone that has spread globally in successive waves. In this review, we examine the clonal nature of the disease, with the example of the recent history of cholera in the Americas. Epidemiological data and genome sequence-based analysis of V. cholerae isolates demonstrate that the cholera epidemics of the 1990s in South America were triggered by the importation of a pathogenic V. cholerae strain that gradually spread throughout the region until local outbreaks ceased in 2001. Latin America remained almost unaffected by the disease until a new toxigenic V. cholerae clone was imported into Haiti in 2010. Overall, cholera appears to be largely caused by a subset of specific V. cholerae clones rather than by the vast diversity of V. cholerae strains in the environment. © 2014 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2014 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  16. On Spatially Explicit Models of Cholera Epidemics: Hydrologic controls, environmental drivers, human-mediated transmissions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2010-12-01

    A recently proposed model for cholera epidemics is examined. The model accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links which are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of water-borne pathogens. The results of a large-scale application to the Kwa Zulu (Natal) epidemics of 2001-2002 will be discussed. Useful theoretical results derived in the spatially-explicit context will also be reviewed (like e.g. the exact derivation of the speed of propagation for traveling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices endowed with uniform population density). Network effects will be discussed. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population density proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, it is shown that the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak timescales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the SIR-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest timescales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models. Finally, a view on further developments includes: hydrologically improved aquatic reservoir models for pathogens; human mobility patterns affecting disease propagation; double-peak emergence and seasonality in the spatially explicit epidemic context.

  17. Epidemiology and characteristics of the dengue outbreak in Guangdong, Southern China, in 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, L; Luo, X; Shao, J; Yan, H; Qiu, Y; Ke, P; Zheng, W; Xu, B; Li, W; Sun, D; Cao, D; Chen, C; Zhuo, F; Lin, X; Tang, F; Bao, B; Zhou, Y; Zhang, X; Li, H; Li, J; Wan, D; Yang, L; Chen, Y; Zhong, Q; Gu, X; Liu, J; Huang, L; Xie, R; Li, X; Xu, Y; Luo, Z; Liao, M; Wang, H; Sun, L; Li, H; Lau, G W; Duan, C

    2016-02-01

    Dengue is a rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV) and has emerged as a severe public health problem around the world. Guangdong, one of the southern Chinese provinces, experienced a serious outbreak of dengue in 2014, which was believed to be the worst dengue epidemic in China over the last 20 years. To better understand the epidemic, we collected the epidemiological data of the outbreak and analyzed 14,594 clinically suspected dengue patients from 25 hospitals in Guangdong. Dengue cases were then laboratory-confirmed by the detection of DENV non-structural protein 1 (NS1) antigen and/or DENV RNA. Afterwards, clinical manifestations of dengue patients were analyzed and 93 laboratory-positive serum specimens were chosen for the DENV serotyping and molecular analysis. Our data showed that the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangdong had spread to 20 cities and more than 45 thousand people suffered from dengue fever. Of 14,594 participants, 11,387 were definitively diagnosed. Most manifested with a typical non-severe clinical course, and 1.96 % developed to severe dengue. The strains isolated successfully from the serum samples were identified as DENV-1. Genetic analyses revealed that the strains were classified into genotypes I and V of DENV-1, and the dengue epidemic of Guangdong in 2014 was caused by indigenous cases and imported cases from the neighboring Southeast Asian countries of Malaysia and Singapore. Overall, our study is informative and significant to the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangdong and will provide crucial implications for dengue prevention and control in China and elsewhere.

  18. Human African trypanosomiasis in South Sudan: how can we prevent a new epidemic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José A Ruiz-Postigo

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT has been a major public health problem in South Sudan for the last century. Recurrent outbreaks with a repetitive pattern of responding-scaling down activities have been observed. Control measures for outbreak response were reduced when the prevalence decreased and/or socio-political crisis erupted, leading to a new increase in the number of cases. This paper aims to raise international awareness of the threat of another outbreak of sleeping sickness in South Sudan. It is a review of the available data, interventions over time, and current reports on the status of HAT in South Sudan. Since 2006, control interventions and treatments providing services for sleeping sickness have been reduced. Access to HAT diagnosis and treatment has been considerably diminished. The current status of control activities for HAT in South Sudan could lead to a new outbreak of the disease unless 1 the remaining competent personnel are used to train younger staff to resume surveillance and treatment in the centers where HAT activities have stopped, and 2 control of HAT continues to be given priority even when the number of cases has been substantially reduced. Failure to implement an effective and sustainable system for HAT control and surveillance will increase the risk of a new epidemic. That would cause considerable suffering for the affected population and would be an impediment to the socioeconomic development of South Sudan.

  19. Genetic diversity of ORF3 and spike genes of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temeeyasen, Gun; Srijangwad, Anchalee; Tripipat, Thitima; Tipsombatboon, Pavita; Piriyapongsa, Jittima; Phoolcharoen, Waranyoo; Chuanasa, Taksina; Tantituvanont, Angkana; Nilubol, Dachrit

    2014-01-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has become endemic in the Thai swine industry, causing economic losses and repeated outbreaks since its first emergence in 2007. In the present study, 69 Thai PEDV isolates were obtained from 50 swine herds across Thailand during the period 2008-2012. Both partial and complete nucleotide sequences of the spike (S) glycoprotein and the nucleotide sequences of ORF3 genes were determined to investigate the genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of Thai PEDV. Based on the analysis of the partial S glycoprotein genes, the Thai PEDV isolates were clustered into 2 groups related to Korean and Chinese field isolates. The results for the complete spike genes, however, demonstrated that both groups were grouped in the same cluster. Interestingly, both groups of Thai PEDV isolates had a 4-aa (GENQ) insertion between positions 55 and 56, a 1-aa insertion between positions 135 and 136, and a 2-aa deletion between positions 155 and 156, making them identical to the Korean KNU series and isolates responsible for outbreaks in China in recent years. In addition to the complete S sequences, the ORF3 gene analyses suggested that the isolates responsible for outbreaks in Thailand are not vaccine related. The results of this study suggest that the PEDV isolates responsible for outbreaks in Thailand since its emergence represent a variant of PEDV that was previously reported in China and Korea. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The Chikungunya epidemic in Italy and its repercussion on the blood system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liumbruno, Giancarlo Maria; Calteri, Deanna; Petropulacos, Kyriakoula; Mattivi, Andrea; Po, Claudio; Macini, Pierluigi; Tomasini, Ivana; Zucchelli, Paolo; Silvestri, Anna Rita; Sambri, Vittorio; Pupella, Simonetta; Catalano, Liviana; Piccinini, Vanessa; Calizzani, Gabriele; Grazzini, Giuliano

    2008-10-01

    The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes and recently caused a massive epidemic on La Réunion Island, in the Indian Ocean. Between July and September 2007 it caused the first autochthonous epidemic outbreak in Europe, in the Region of Emilia-Romagna in the north-east of Italy. After the first reports of an unusually high number of patients with a febrile illness of unknown origin in two contiguous villages, an outbreak investigation was carried out to identify the primary source of infection, the modes of transmission and the dynamics of the epidemic. An active surveillance system was also implemented. Laboratory diagnosis was performed through serology and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. Blood donation was discontinued in the areas involved from September to October 2007 and specific precautionary blood safety and self-sufficiency measures were adopted by the regional health and blood authorities and the National Blood Centre. An estimate method to early assess the risk of viraemic blood donations by asymptomatic donors was developed, as a tool for "pragmatic" risk assessment and management, aiming at providing a reliable order of magnitude of the mean risk of CHIKV transmission through blood transfusion. Two hundred and seventeen cases of CHIKV infection were identified between 4th July and 28th September. The disease was fairly mild in most of the cases. The precautionary measures adopted in the blood system caused a considerable reduction of the collection of blood components and of the delivery of plasma to the pharmaceutical industry for contract manufacturing. The estimated risk of CHIKV transmission through blood transfusion peaked in the third week of August. ACHIKV epidemic poses considerable problems for public health authorities, who not only need good routine programmes of vector control and epidemiological surveillance but also local and national emergency plans to sustain the blood supply, so as to promptly deal

  1. Epidemic Reconstruction in a Phylogenetics Framework: Transmission Trees as Partitions of the Node Set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Matthew; Woolhouse, Mark; Rambaut, Andrew

    2015-12-01

    The use of genetic data to reconstruct the transmission tree of infectious disease epidemics and outbreaks has been the subject of an increasing number of studies, but previous approaches have usually either made assumptions that are not fully compatible with phylogenetic inference, or, where they have based inference on a phylogeny, have employed a procedure that requires this tree to be fixed. At the same time, the coalescent-based models of the pathogen population that are employed in the methods usually used for time-resolved phylogeny reconstruction are a considerable simplification of epidemic process, as they assume that pathogen lineages mix freely. Here, we contribute a new method that is simultaneously a phylogeny reconstruction method for isolates taken from an epidemic, and a procedure for transmission tree reconstruction. We observe that, if one or more samples is taken from each host in an epidemic or outbreak and these are used to build a phylogeny, a transmission tree is equivalent to a partition of the set of nodes of this phylogeny, such that each partition element is a set of nodes that is connected in the full tree and contains all the tips corresponding to samples taken from one and only one host. We then implement a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) procedure for simultaneous sampling from the spaces of both trees, utilising a newly-designed set of phylogenetic tree proposals that also respect node partitions. We calculate the posterior probability of these partitioned trees based on a model that acknowledges the population structure of an epidemic by employing an individual-based disease transmission model and a coalescent process taking place within each host. We demonstrate our method, first using simulated data, and then with sequences taken from the H7N7 avian influenza outbreak that occurred in the Netherlands in 2003. We show that it is superior to established coalescent methods for reconstructing the topology and node heights of the

  2. Epidemic Reconstruction in a Phylogenetics Framework: Transmission Trees as Partitions of the Node Set.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Hall

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of genetic data to reconstruct the transmission tree of infectious disease epidemics and outbreaks has been the subject of an increasing number of studies, but previous approaches have usually either made assumptions that are not fully compatible with phylogenetic inference, or, where they have based inference on a phylogeny, have employed a procedure that requires this tree to be fixed. At the same time, the coalescent-based models of the pathogen population that are employed in the methods usually used for time-resolved phylogeny reconstruction are a considerable simplification of epidemic process, as they assume that pathogen lineages mix freely. Here, we contribute a new method that is simultaneously a phylogeny reconstruction method for isolates taken from an epidemic, and a procedure for transmission tree reconstruction. We observe that, if one or more samples is taken from each host in an epidemic or outbreak and these are used to build a phylogeny, a transmission tree is equivalent to a partition of the set of nodes of this phylogeny, such that each partition element is a set of nodes that is connected in the full tree and contains all the tips corresponding to samples taken from one and only one host. We then implement a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC procedure for simultaneous sampling from the spaces of both trees, utilising a newly-designed set of phylogenetic tree proposals that also respect node partitions. We calculate the posterior probability of these partitioned trees based on a model that acknowledges the population structure of an epidemic by employing an individual-based disease transmission model and a coalescent process taking place within each host. We demonstrate our method, first using simulated data, and then with sequences taken from the H7N7 avian influenza outbreak that occurred in the Netherlands in 2003. We show that it is superior to established coalescent methods for reconstructing the topology and node

  3. [Effect evaluation of a 2 dose varicella vaccine immunization strategy implemented to control outbreaks in school and kindergarten settings].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Luodan; Li, Juan; Zhao, Dan; Yang, Fan; Liu, Weixiang; Wu, Jiang; Pang, Xinghuo; Deng, Ying; Lu, Li

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the effect of outbreaks control in school settings after a 2 dose varicella vaccine immunization strategy implemented in Beijing. Epidemiological data of varicella outbreaks in school and kindergarten settings, which were reported by all 16 districts (county) during 2007-2013 according to the technical management norms of Beijing, was collected. The first dose and second dose varicella vaccine coverage rate of eligible children after the 2 dose varicella vaccine immunization strategy implementation were estimated through BJIIMS. Based on above we analyzed the changes of outbreak quantity, case quantity and the distribution characteristics between the pre-adjustment era (2007-2011 years) and late adjustment era (2013) of the 2 dose immunization strategy. In pre-adjustment era (2007-2011 years), an average of 74 (95% CI: 60-89) outbreaks was reported and 964 (95% CI: 812-1 116) cases were involved per year. In late adjustment era (2013): Outbreaks (35) declined 52.7%, involved cases (371) declined 61.5%; Outbreaks epidemic duration shortened from 22 days of pre-adjustment era to 18 days; Outbreaks involved 10-24 cases declined 64.7% (from 34 to 12); Outbreaks involved ≥ 25 cases declined 71.4% (from 7 to 2); Outbreaks of different school type as well as different regions without exception declined dramatically. Cumulative one-dose vaccine coverage in children of 2-6 yr of age was 89.6% (812 859/907 579), and cumulative second-dose vaccine coverage in children of 4-7 yr of age was 44.3% (289 764/647 732). Implementation of a 2 dose varicella vaccine immunization strategy effectively controlled outbreaks in school and kindergarten settings.

  4. Global Outbreaks Of Ebola And Its Strategic Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humna Sajid Qureshi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ebola outbreaks are more prevalent in central and west Africa. Epidemics with their statistical data was analyzed to study and document the signs and symptoms diagnosis transmission incubation period and other disease characterteristics. To predict standard treatment guidelines control prevention or the strategic management of ebola disease Health regulatory authorities on national amp international level like WHO and PAHO Pan American Health Organization are encouraging the research for the prevention diagnosis and treatment of ebola disease. Some antiviral drugs are found efficacious but they are still in pre-clinical and clinical trials. Although no recommended treatment and vaccination is available to the date but the only approved treatment by WHO is whole blood transfusion of the infected person.

  5. Measles outbreak--California, December 2014-February 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipprich, Jennifer; Winter, Kathleen; Hacker, Jill; Xia, Dongxiang; Watt, James; Harriman, Kathleen

    2015-02-20

    On January 5, 2015, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) was notified about a suspected measles case. The patient was a hospitalized, unvaccinated child, aged 11 years with rash onset on December 28. The only notable travel history during the exposure period was a visit to one of two adjacent Disney theme parks located in Orange County, California. On the same day, CDPH received reports of four additional suspected measles cases in California residents and two in Utah residents, all of whom reported visiting one or both Disney theme parks during December 17-20. By January 7,seven California measles cases had been confirmed, and CDPH issued a press release and an Epidemic Information Exchange (Epi-X) notification to other states regarding this outbreak. Measles transmission is ongoing.

  6. An outbreak of aseptic meningitis in Podlaskie Voivodeship in 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magda Orzechowska

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Enteroviruses cause common infections with various clinical course and forms, such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease (Boston exanthem disease, herpangina, myocarditis and pericarditis, widespread myositis (epidemic pleurodynia, Bornholm disease, or aseptic inflammation of the nervous system, among children and adolescents. An increase in aseptic meningitis cases of enteroviral aetiology, including the E30 virus, was occasionally observed in various European countries. In 2014, an outbreak of aseptic meningitis was reported in Podlaskie Voivodeship. A total of 640 cases were reported between June 1 and November 30, 2014, of which 228 had confirmed enteroviral aetiology. Summer and autumn seasons favour the incidence of viral infections of the central nervous system. Symptomatic infections are more common in males than females. Infections with enterovirus show the tendency to form endemic regions.

  7. Concurrent summer influenza and pertussis outbreaks in a nursing home in Sydney, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferson, Mark J; Morgan, Keira; Robertson, Peter W; Hampson, Alan W; Carter, Ian; Rawlinson, William D

    2004-11-01

    To report on the investigation of a summer outbreak of acute respiratory illness among residents of a Sydney nursing home. An epidemiologic and microbiological investigation of the resident cohort at the time of the outbreak and medical record review 5 months later. A nursing home located in Sydney, Australia, during February to July 1999. The cohort of residents present in the nursing home at the time of the outbreak. Public health interventions included recommendations regarding hygiene, cohorting of residents and staff, closure to further admissions, and prompt reporting of illness; and virologic and serologic studies of residents. Of the 69 residents (mean age, 85.1 years), 35 fulfilled the case definition of acute respiratory illness. Influenza A infection was confirmed in 19 residents, and phylogenetic analysis of the resulting isolate, designated H3N2 A/Sydney/203/99, showed that it differed from strains isolated in eastern Australia during the same period. Serologic evidence of Bordetella infection was also found in 10 residents; however, stratified epidemiologic analysis pointed to influenza A as the cause of illness. The investigation revealed an unusual summer outbreak of influenza A concurrent with subclinical pertussis infection. Surveillance of acute respiratory illness in nursing homes throughout the year, rather than solely during epidemic periods, in combination with appropriate public health laboratory support, would allow initiation of a timely public health response to outbreaks of acute respiratory illness in this setting.

  8. [Use of molecular typing tools for the study of hospital outbreaks of candidemia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos-Zambrano, Laura Judith; Escribano, Pilar; Bouza, Emilio; Guinea, Jesús

    2014-01-01

    Candidemia is an infectious complication mainly affecting hospitalized patients, particularly those admitted to intensive care units. Patient mortality can reach up to 40%. Candidemia is typically nosocomially-acquired, and horizontal transmission of Candida spp. can lead to the presence of outbreaks of candidemia. Genotyping of isolates of Candida causing candidemia can help us to understand the source of the infection, detect the hospital wards with active Candida spp. transmission and, consequently, improve the prevention of the infection. Several genotyping tools have been used for the molecular characterization of Candida isolates involved in outbreaks of candidemia. Genotyping procedures based on microsatellites are reproducible and show a high discriminatory power. Microsatellites are recommended for the study of outbreaks of candidemia. In most hospital outbreaks of candidemia, patients admitted to intensive care units are involved, mostly neonatal patients. The role of genotyping Candida isolates causing candidemia for the study of nosocomial outbreaks of candidemia is reviewed, as well as the patients more commonly affected by epidemic strains. Copyright © 2013 Revista Iberoamericana de Micología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  9. Burden of gastroenteritis outbreaks: specific epidemiology in a cohort of institutions caring for dependent people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspard, P; Ambert-Balay, K; Mosnier, A; Aho-Glélé, S; Roth, C; Larocca, S; Simon, L; Talon, D; Rabaud, C; Pothier, P

    2015-09-01

    In institutions caring for dependent people, viral gastroenteritis occurs frequently and is highly contagious. In elderly persons, these episodes can lead to hospitalization and occasionally death. To study the impact of gastroenteritis outbreaks (GOs) in institutions caring for dependent people. This study was conducted on 18 sites consisting of 35 units from four different disciplines (geriatric medicine and rehabilitation, psychogeriatrics, geriatric nursing homes, and specialized care homes for adults with physical and mental disabilities). Spatio-temporal analysis of GOs was performed during six winter seasons, and clinical and viral data were analysed with regard to structural parameters (size of the sites and dining-room organization), virus epidemiology and chronology of the outbreaks and type of activities. A total of 98 outbreaks were recorded in the 35 units. The risk of GO was high even outside national epidemic periods. Viruses were searched for in 86 outbreaks and were identified in 96.5% (83/86) of these outbreaks: norovirus genotype GII.4 (59.0%, 49/83), other viruses (41.0%, 34/83). There were variations between surveillance periods in terms of GO frequencies and attack rates and types of viruses. Dining-room organization could be a factor in cross-infection at a site. Specific surveillance that takes into account the precise epidemiology needs to be developed in institutions caring for dependent people in order to improve infectious disease control and information for healthcare workers. Copyright © 2015 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008-2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukandavire, Zindoga; Liao, Shu; Wang, Jin; Gaff, Holly; Smith, David L; Morris, J Glenn

    2011-05-24

    Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control epidemic disease. Weekly data on reported cholera cases were obtained from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) for the period from November 13, 2008 to July 31, 2009. A mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive numbers R(0) and the partial reproductive numbers from all 10 provinces for the 2008-2009 Zimbabwe cholera epidemic. Estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, ranging from a low value of just above unity to 2.72. Partial reproductive numbers were also highly heterogeneous, suggesting that the transmission routes varied by province; human-to-human transmission accounted for 41-95% of all transmission. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from province to province, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks in different provinces to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of cholera transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. The lack of traditional estuarine reservoirs combined with these estimates of R(0) suggest that mass vaccination against cholera deployed strategically in Zimbabwe and surrounding regions could prevent future cholera epidemics and eventually eliminate cholera from the region.

  11. Chikungunya virus; Review of Epidemiology and Outbreak in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tousif Raza

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is mosquito-borne, alpha virus. It causes acute fever and acute and chronic musculoskeletal pain in humans. CHIKV has spread to 22 countries including Pakistan resulting in hundreds of thousands of death across the world. International travel stands out as one of the major risk factors for rapid global spread of the disease. CHIKV can be highly debilitating and large epidemic have severe economic consequences. Reemergence of CHIKV is serious public health concern. In the past 10 years, after decades of infrequent, specific outbreaks, the virus has caused major epidemic outbreaks in Africa, Asia, the India Ocean, and more recently the Caribbean and Americas. Chikungunya virus represents a substantial health burden to affected population, with symptoms that include severe joint and muscle pain, rashes, and fever, as well as prolonged periods of disability in some patients. Entry of virus into tissues causes infiltration of innate immune cells, monocytes, macrophages, neutrophils, natural killer cells and adaptive immune cells. Macrophages bearing the replicating virus, in turn, secrete pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1B, TNF-a, IL-17. Together, this pro-inflammatory milieu induces osteoclastogenesis, bone loss, and erosion. Understanding the mechanisms of host immune responses is essential for the development of diagnosis, treatments and vaccines. Viral culture and isolation from blood cells of infected patients are the Gold standards for diagnosis. Early diagnosis of CHIKV is possible by nucleic acid detection techniques. Thus there is urgent need for continued research into the epidemiology, pathology, prevention and treatment of this disease. In this article, we have provided and update on Chikungunya virus with its recent epidemiology, molecular virology and antiviral therapies and vaccines.

  12. Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Napp

    relationship was not linear, probably as a result of the complex relationship between temperature and the different parameters affecting BTV transmission. Rt values for BTV-1 in Andalusia fell below the threshold of 1 when temperatures dropped below 21°C, a much higher threshold than that reported in other BTV outbreaks, such as the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe. This divergence may be explained by differences in the adaptation to temperature of the main vectors of the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia (Culicoides imicola compared those of the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe (Culicoides obsoletus. Importantly, we found that BTV transmission (Rt value increased significantly in areas with higher densities of sheep. Our analysis also established that control of BTV-1 in Andalusia was complicated by the simultaneous establishment of several distant foci at the start of the epidemic, which may have been caused by several independent introductions of infected vectors from the North of Africa. We discuss the implications of these findings for BTV surveillance and control in this region of Europe.

  13. Reporting and Surveillance for Norovirus Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) Estimates of Foodborne Illness in the United States CDC's Vessel Sanitation Program CDC Feature: Surveillance for Norovirus Outbreaks Top ...

  14. A foodborne outbreak of Cryptosporidium hominis infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ethelberg, S.; Lisby, M.; Vestergaard, L. S.

    2009-01-01

    Foodborne outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis are uncommon. In Denmark human cases are generally infrequently diagnosed. In 2005 an outbreak of diarrhoea affected company employees near Copenhagen. In all 99 employees were reported ill; 13 were positive for Cryptosporidium hominis infection. Two...

  15. Selection tool for foodborne norovirus outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Linda P B; Kroneman, Annelies; van Duynhoven, Yvonne; Boshuizen, Hendriek; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Koopmans, Marion

    2009-01-01

    Detection of pathogens in the food chain is limited mainly to bacteria, and the globalization of the food industry enables international viral foodborne outbreaks to occur. Outbreaks from 2002 through 2006 recorded in a European norovirus surveillance database were investigated for virologic and epidemiologic indicators of food relatedness. The resulting validated multivariate logistic regression model comparing foodborne (n = 224) and person-to-person (n = 654) outbreaks was used to create a practical web-based tool that can be limited to epidemiologic parameters for nongenotyping countries. Non-genogroup-II.4 outbreaks, higher numbers of cases, and outbreaks in restaurants or households characterized (sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.86) foodborne outbreaks and reduced the percentage of outbreaks requiring source-tracing to 31%. The selection tool enabled prospectively focused follow-up. Use of this tool is likely to improve data quality and strain typing in current surveillance systems, which is necessary for identification of potential international foodborne outbreaks.

  16. Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Based on Disease Surveillance and Meteorological Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditya Lia Ramadona

    Full Text Available Research is needed to create early warnings of dengue outbreaks to inform stakeholders and control the disease. This analysis composes of a comparative set of prediction models including only meteorological variables; only lag variables of disease surveillance; as well as combinations of meteorological and lag disease surveillance variables. Generalized linear regression models were used to fit relationships between the predictor variables and the dengue surveillance data as outcome variable on the basis of data from 2001 to 2010. Data from 2011 to 2013 were used for external validation purposed of prediction accuracy of the model. Model fit were evaluated based on prediction performance in terms of detecting epidemics, and for number of predicted cases according to RMSE and SRMSE, as well as AIC. An optimal combination of meteorology and autoregressive lag terms of dengue counts in the past were identified best in predicting dengue incidence and the occurrence of dengue epidemics. Past data on disease surveillance, as predictor alone, visually gave reasonably accurate results for outbreak periods, but not for non-outbreaks periods. A combination of surveillance and meteorological data including lag patterns up to a few years in the past showed most predictive of dengue incidence and occurrence in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The external validation showed poorer results than the internal validation, but still showed skill in detecting outbreaks up to two months ahead. Prior studies support the fact that past meteorology and surveillance data can be predictive of dengue. However, to a less extent has prior research shown how the longer-term past disease incidence data, up to years, can play a role in predicting outbreaks in the coming years, possibly indicating cross-immunity status of the population.

  17. Remote Sensing Contributions to Prediction and Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Caused by Large Scale Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer; Britch, S. C.; Tucker, C. J.

    2012-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation measurements for the last 30 years combined with other climate data sets such as rainfall and sea surface temperatures have come to play an important role in the study of the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases. We show that epidemics and epizootics of previously unpredictable Rift Valley fever are directly influenced by large scale flooding associated with the El Ni o/Southern Oscillation. This flooding affects the ecology of disease transmitting arthropod vectors through vegetation development and other bioclimatic factors. This information is now utilized to monitor, model, and map areas of potential Rift Valley fever outbreaks and is used as an early warning system for risk reduction of outbreaks to human and animal health, trade, and associated economic impacts. The continuation of such satellite measurements is critical to anticipating, preventing, and managing disease epidemics and epizootics and other climate-related disasters.

  18. Zika virus infections in pregnancy: epidemics and case management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih sahiner

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus is an RNA virus belonging to the Flaviviridae family, and is primarily transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Only a small number of cases had been described until 2007 when the first major Zika virus outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia. Approximately 80% of people infected with Zika virus do not exhibit any symptoms. Symptomatic infections are generally moderate and characterized by acute onset of fever, maculopapular rash, arthralgia, or conjunctivitis. The virus has recently attracted a broad interest due to the emerging cases of microcephaly that are possibly associated with mothers infected by the Zika virus during pregnancy, and the regional increases in the incidence of Guillain-Barre syndrome during the epidemic periods. Although the relationship between Zika virus infection and these abnormalities is not obviously understood yet, Zika virus testing is recommended for infants with microcephaly or intracranial calcifications whose mothers were potentially infected with the Zika virus during pregnancy. Every day, new reports are being published about the outbreaks associated with this virus; nevertheless, no new cases of this virus have been reported in Turkey. Despite this, we cannot currently exclude the possibility of the encounter with the virus because of the presence of Aedes mosquitoes, which are responsible for the spread of the virus, are prevalent in Turkey, and an increasing number of travel-related cases are being reported from different countries. In the light of the current knowledge on this virus, this review aims to discuss the course of Zika virus infections in detail, especially congenital infection, and presenting current information about the case management and preventive measures. [Cukurova Med J 2016; 41(1.000: 143-151

  19. Severe Outcomes Are Associated With Genogroup 2 Genotype 4 Norovirus Outbreaks: A Systematic Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Rishi; Hembree, Christal D.; Handel, Andreas; Matthews, Jonathan E.; Dickey, Benjamin W.; McDonald, Sharla; Hall, Aron J.; Parashar, Umesh D.; Leon, Juan S.; Lopman, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Background. Noroviruses (NoVs) are the most common cause of epidemic gastroenteritis; however, the relative impacts of individual factors underlying severe illness are poorly understood. This report reviews published NoV outbreak reports to quantify hospitalization and mortality rates and assess their relationship with outbreak setting, transmission route, and strain. Methods. Using a string of terms related to “norovirus” and “outbreak,” we 2435 nonduplicate articles identified in PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Knowledge published between January 1993 and June 2011. Inclusion criteria included outbreaks with a minimum of 2 ill persons with a common exposure and at least 1 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction–confirmed case of NoV disease. Univariate analyses were performed, and multivariable models were fitted to estimate the independent effect of each factor. Results. We analyzed 843 NoV outbreaks reported in 233 published articles from 45 countries. Based upon 71 724 illnesses, 501 hospitalizations, and 45 deaths, overall hospitalization and mortality rates were 0.54% and 0.06%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, genogroup 2 genotype 4 (GII.4) NoV strains were associated with higher hospitalization (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 9.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.1–14.4; P outbreaks occurring in healthcare facilities (IRR, 60; 95% CI, 6–109; P = .01). Conclusions. Our review suggests that hospitalizations and deaths were more likely in outbreaks associated with GII.4 viruses, independent of other factors, and underscores the importance of developing vaccines against GII.4 viruses to prevent severe disease outcomes. PMID:22491335

  20. Modeling the Effect of Herd Immunity and Contagiousness in Mitigating a Smallpox Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeden, Ellie; Fielding, Russel; Steinhouse, Kyle E; Rubin, Ilan N

    2015-07-01

    The smallpox antiviral tecovirimat has recently been purchased by the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile. Given significant uncertainty regarding both the contagiousness of smallpox in a contemporary outbreak and the efficiency of a mass vaccination campaign, vaccine prophylaxis alone may be unable to control a smallpox outbreak following a bioterror attack. Here, we present the results of a compartmental epidemiological model that identifies conditions under which tecovirimat is required to curtail the epidemic by exploring how the interaction between contagiousness and prophylaxis coverage of the affected population affects the ability of the public health response to control a large-scale smallpox outbreak. Each parameter value in the model is based on published empirical data. We describe contagiousness parametrically using a novel method of distributing an assumed R-value over the disease course based on the relative rates of daily viral shedding from human and animal studies of cognate orthopoxvirus infections. Our results suggest that vaccination prophylaxis is sufficient to control the outbreak when caused either by a minimally contagious virus or when a very high percentage of the population receives prophylaxis. As vaccination coverage of the affected population decreases below 70%, vaccine prophylaxis alone is progressively less capable of controlling outbreaks, even those caused by a less contagious virus (R0 less than 4). In these scenarios, tecovirimat treatment is required to control the outbreak (total number of cases under an order of magnitude more than the number of initial infections). The first study to determine the relative importance of smallpox prophylaxis and treatment under a range of highly uncertain epidemiological parameters, this work provides public health decision-makers with an evidence-based guide for responding to a large-scale smallpox outbreak. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. Contract Support and Facilitation of Epidemic Outbreak Surveillance (EOS) Program Final Operating Capability (FOC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-08-01

    Institution: The Center for Applied NanoBioscience, at the Biodesign Instititue, Arizona State University. Section B: Task Objective: The objective of...address this clear critical and present need, NMRC and the Center for Applied NanoBioscience at the Biodesign Institute will combine their

  2. Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Blokesch, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-03-01

    Here we propose spatially explicit predictions of the residual progression of the current Haiti cholera outbreak accounting for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities, and for the redistribution among them of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the disease. Spreading mechanisms include the diffusion of pathogens in the aquatic environment and their dissemination due to the movement of human carriers. The model reproduces the spatiotemporal features of the outbreak to date, thus suggesting the robustness of predicted future developments of the epidemic. We estimate that, under unchanged conditions, the number of new cases in the whole country should start to decrease in January. During this month the epidemic should mainly involve the Ouest department (Port-au-Prince) while fading out in northern regions. Our spatially explicit model allows also the analysis of the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies. To that end our results show that mass vaccinations would have a negligible impact at this stage of the epidemic. We also show that targeted sanitation strategies, providing clean drinking water supply and/or staging educational campaigns aimed at reducing exposure, may weaken the strength of the residual evolution of the infection.

  3. Larval outbreaks in West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Magnus; Raundrup, Katrine; Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    effects of a larval outbreak in 2011 on vegetation productivity and CO2 exchange. We estimate a decreased carbon (C) sink strength in the order of 118–143 g C m−2, corresponding to 1210–1470 tonnes C at the Kobbefjord catchment scale. The decreased C sink was, however, counteracted the following years...

  4. Chikungunya fever outbreak, Bhutan, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wangchuk, Sonam; Chinnawirotpisan, Piyawan; Dorji, Tshering; Tobgay, Tashi; Dorji, Tandin; Yoon, In-Kyu; Fernandez, Stefan

    2013-10-01

    In 2012, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was reported for the first time in Bhutan. IgM ELISA results were positive for 36/210 patient samples; PCR was positive for 32/81. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed that Bhutan CHIKV belongs to the East/Central/South African genotype. Appropriate responses to future outbreaks require a system of surveillance and improved laboratory capacity.

  5. Measles (Rubeola) Cases and Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Address What’s this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Measles Cases and Outbreaks Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) ... Español: Casos y brotes de sarampión Number of measles cases by year since 2010 Measles cases per ...

  6. [Water-borne disease outbreaks in Norway].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nygård, Karin; Gondrosen, Bjørn; Lund, Vidar

    2003-12-04

    The drinking water in Norway has traditionally been considered being of good quality. However, outbreaks related to drinking water are reported every year. We review waterborne outbreaks in Norway over the last 15 years, and describe the aetiology of and contributory factors in these outbreaks. We compiled data on waterborne outbreaks reported to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and Norwegian Food Control Authority during 1988-2002. We included all events in which two or more people fell ill and water was the suspected source of infection. Over the 15-year period. 72 outbreaks were reported, affecting a total of 10 616 persons. Campylobacter was the cause in 26% (19/72) of the outbreaks, norovirus in 18% (13/72). The causative organism was unknown in 46% (33/72). The water came from public waterworks in 32 of the 54 outbreaks for which this information was available (59%); from a private supply in the remaining 22. For 62% (16/26) of the outbreaks related to waterworks, the water was not disinfected before distribution. None of the private water supplies were disinfected. Over the last five years, there were more outbreaks related to private supplies. The most important contributory factor to waterborne outbreaks in Norway is contamination of the raw water combined with missing or faulty disinfecting procedures. To prevent future outbreaks, a continuous upgrading of small and private water supplies is needed. Reporting of outbreaks is important for the implementation of targeted and effective preventive measures.

  7. Dengue Outbreak in Hadramout, Yemen, 2010: An Epidemiological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghouth, Abdulla Salim Bin; Amarasinghe, Ananda; Letson, G. William

    2012-01-01

    We analyzed surveillance data of a dengue outbreak (2010) reported to the Hadramout Health Office (Yemen) and retrospectively analyzed dengue-related epidemiological and entomological events reported in Hadramout from 2005 to 2009. A total of 630 immunoglobulin M (IgM) -confirmed dengue cases of 982 febrile cases was reported during the period from February to June of 2010; 12 cases died, giving case fatality a rate of 1.9%. Among febrile cases, the highest proportion of dengue cases (37.3%) was reported in the 15- to 24-year-old age group. The overall attack rate was 0.89/1,000. The average number of cases reported by month over the preceding 5-year period compared with the 2010 data is consistent with endemicity of dengue in the region and supports epidemic designation for the dengue activity in 2010. Recognition of endemic dengue transmission and potential for substantial dengue epidemics highlight the need for consistent laboratory-based surveillance that can support prevention and control activities accordingly. PMID:22665621

  8. Minimizing Spatial Variability of Healthcare Spatial Accessibility—The Case of a Dengue Fever Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hone-Jay Chu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of infectious diseases or multi-casualty incidents have the potential to generate a large number of patients. It is a challenge for the healthcare system when demand for care suddenly surges. Traditionally, valuation of heath care spatial accessibility was based on static supply and demand information. In this study, we proposed an optimal model with the three-step floating catchment area (3SFCA to account for the supply to minimize variability in spatial accessibility. We used empirical dengue fever outbreak data in Tainan City, Taiwan in 2015 to demonstrate the dynamic change in spatial accessibility based on the epidemic trend. The x and y coordinates of dengue-infected patients with precision loss were provided publicly by the Tainan City government, and were used as our model’s demand. The spatial accessibility of heath care during the dengue outbreak from August to October 2015 was analyzed spatially and temporally by producing accessibility maps, and conducting capacity change analysis. This study also utilized the particle swarm optimization (PSO model to decrease the spatial variation in accessibility and shortage areas of healthcare resources as the epidemic went on. The proposed method in this study can help decision makers reallocate healthcare resources spatially when the ratios of demand and supply surge too quickly and form clusters in some locations.

  9. Management of outbreaks of nosocomial pathogens in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ghirardi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of nosocomial pathogens are one of the most relevant problems in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU. Many factors contribute to the onset of an epidemic, including virulence of the pathogen and vulnerability of the infants hospitalized in NICU. Outbreaks are often caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs. MDROs are defined as microorganisms, predominantly bacteria, that are resistant to one or more classes of antimicrobial agents. MDROs, including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE and certain gram-negative bacilli (GNB, have important infection control implications. Once MDROs are introduced into a healthcare setting, transmission and persistence of the resistant strain is determined by the availability of vulnerable patients, selective pressure exerted by antimicrobial use, increased potential for transmission from larger numbers of infected or colonized patients (“colonization pressure”, and the impact of adherence to prevention efforts. Often, routine infection control measures are not enough to contain outbreaks, and additional control measures are needed, including implementation of hand hygiene, cohorting of infected/colonized infants, neonatal surveillance cultures, screening of healthcare workers and decolonization of neonates and/or healthcare workers in selected cases. In this review, we report the practices we developed in our NICU to contain an epidemic. These recommendations reflect the experience of the group, as well as the findings of the current literature.

  10. Molecular Characterization of a New Ribotype of Vibrio cholerae O139 Bengal Associated with an Outbreak of Cholera in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Faruque, Shah M.; Siddique, A. K.; Saha, Manujendra N.; Asadulghani; Rahman, M. Mostafizur; Zaman, K.; Albert, M. John; Sack, David A.; Sack, R. Bradley

    1999-01-01

    Vibrio cholerae O139 Bengal initially appeared in the southern coastal region of Bangladesh and spread northward, causing explosive epidemics during 1992 and 1993. The resurgence of V. cholerae O139 during 1995 after its transient displacement by a new clone of El Tor vibrios demonstrated rapid changes in the epidemiology of cholera in Bangladesh. A recent outbreak of cholera in two north-central districts of Bangladesh caused by V. cholerae O139 led us to analyze strains collected from the o...

  11. [The effects of closure to live poultry markets on Avian influenza A (H7N9) epidemics in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T; Zhu, G H; Zhang, B; Song, T; Kang, M; Lu, J; Zhao, Y Q; Huang, Z; Huang, Y L; Wang, X J; Yang, X Y; Ma, W J

    2017-12-10

    Since March 2013, China had experienced five seasonal epidemics related to Avian influenza A (H7N9). An unprecedented outbreak of H7N9 epidemic started from September 2016, with 730 cases reported till June 30(th) 2017, in mainland China that caused profound influences on both social development and health of the people. As an emerging infectious disease, information on pathogenic characteristics, transmission patterns and other epidemiological features of H7N9 virus somehow remained unclear. Data from previous studies suggested that the live poultry market (LPM) seemed to have served as main places where H7N9 virus got originated, mutated, spread and thus infected the human beings. Hence, closure of LPMs was suggested a major measure to control and prevent H7N9 epidemics in China. However, the effectiveness of different ways of LPM closures on H7N9 epidemics had been controversial. This study systemically summarized the effects of different ways of LPM closures on H7N epidemics from previous studies, aiming to provide references for developing a better program on H7N9 control and prevention in the country.

  12. Chikungunya virus outbreak in Kerala, India, 2007: a seroprevalence study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narendran Pradeep Kumar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available India was affected by a major outbreak of chikungunya fever caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV during 2006-2007. Kerala was the worst affected state during 2007 with a contribution of 55.8% suspected cases in the country. However, except for clinically reported case records, no systematic information is available on infection status of CHIKV in the region. Hence, we carried out a post-epidemic survey to estimate seroprevalence status [immunoglobulin G (IgG] in the community using commercially available indirect immunofluorescence test. This methodology had been reported to be highly specific and sensitive for CHIKV infection. The study area selected was the worst affected mid-highlands region of Kerala which harbour vast area of rubber plantations. The study evidenced 68% of the population to be seropositive for CHIKV IgG. Males were found more affected than females (χ2 = 9.86; p = 0.002. Among males, prevalence was significantly higher in the age classes 21-30 (χ2 = 5.46; p = 0.019 and 31-40 (χ2 = 5.84; p = 0.016 years. This may be due to high occupational risk of the male population engaged in plantation activities exposed to infective bites of Aedes albopictus. The current study provides an insight into the magnitude of CHIKV outbreak in Kerala.

  13. Sporothrix brasiliensis outbreaks and the rapid emergence of feline sporotrichosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchotene, Karine Ortiz; Madrid, Isabel Martins; Klafke, Gabriel Baracy; Bergamashi, Mariana; Della Terra, Paula Portella; Rodrigues, Anderson Messias; de Camargo, Zoilo Pires; Xavier, Melissa Orzechowski

    2015-11-01

    Sporotrichosis is the main subcutaneous mycosis in Brazil, and is caused by Sporothrix schenckii and allied species. Sporothrix propagules present on soil and plant debris may be traumatically inoculated into the cutaneous/ subcutaneous tissues of the warm-blooded host. An alternative route involves direct animal-animal and animal-human transmissions through deep scratches and bites of diseased cats. Sporotrichosis is much more common than previously appreciated with several cases emerging over the years especially in South and Southeast Brazil. We conducted an epidemiological surveillance in endemic areas of feline sporotrichosis in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. Over the last 5-year period the number of feline sporotrichosis in Rio Grande increased from 0.75 new cases per month in 2010 to 3.33 cases per month in 2014. The wide geographic distribution of diagnosed cases highlights the dynamics of Sporothrix transmission across urban areas with high population density. Molecular identification down to species level by PCR-RFLP of cat-transmitted Sporothrix revealed the emergence of the clonal offshoot S. brasiliensis during feline outbreaks; this scenario is similar to the epidemics taking place in the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. Controlling and preventing sporotrichosis outbreaks are essential steps to managing the disease among humans and animals. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  14. Socioeconomic Factors and Vulnerability to Outbreaks of Leptospirosis in Nicaragua

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Bacallao

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone zoonotic disease that occurs worldwide, with more than 500,000 human cases reported annually. It is influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the occurrence of outbreaks and the incidence of the disease. Critical areas and potential drivers for leptospirosis outbreaks have been identified in Nicaragua, where several conditions converge and create an appropriate scenario for the development of leptospirosis. The objectives of this study were to explore possible socioeconomic variables related to leptospirosis critical areas and to construct and validate a vulnerability index based on municipal socioeconomic indicators. Municipalities with lower socioeconomic status (greater unsatisfied basic needs for quality of the household and for sanitary services, and higher extreme poverty and illiteracy rates were identified with the highest leptospirosis rates. The municipalities with highest local vulnerability index should be the priority for intervention. A distinction between risk given by environmental factors and vulnerability to risk given by socioeconomic conditions was shown as important, which also applies to the “causes of outbreaks” and “causes of cases”.

  15. An outbreak of leptospirosis among Peruvian military recruits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Kevin L; Montiel Gonzalez, Marco A; Watts, Douglas M; Lagos-Figueroa, Roberto C; Chauca, Gloria; Ore, Marianela; Gonzalez, Jose E; Moron, Cecilia; Tesh, Robert B; Vinetz, Joseph M

    2003-07-01

    Acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses are common in tropical developing countries but are difficult to diagnose on clinical grounds alone. Leptospirosis is rarely diagnosed, despite evidence that sporadic cases and epidemics continue to occur worldwide. The purpose of this study was to diagnose an outbreak of acute undifferentiated febrile illness among Peruvian military recruits that developed after a training exercise in the high jungle rainforest of Peru. Of 193 military recruits, 78 developed an acute febrile illness with varied manifestations. Of these, 72 were found to have acute leptospirosis by a microscopic agglutination test (MAT). An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using Leptospira biflexa antigen was insensitive for the detection of anti-leptospiral IgM antibodies compared with the MAT (20 of 72, 28%). This outbreak of acute undifferentiated febrile illness among Peruvian military recruits was due to leptospirosis. High clinical suspicion, initiation of preventative measures, and performance of appropriate diagnostic testing is warranted in similar settings to identify, treat, and prevent leptospirosis.

  16. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...

  17. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  18. Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa: Global Health Economic Challenges, Lessons Learned, and Policy Recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmahdawy, Mahmoud; Elsisi, Gihan H; Carapinha, Joao; Lamorde, Mohamed; Habib, Abdulrazaq; Agyie-Baffour, Peter; Soualmi, Redouane; Ragab, Samah; Udezi, Anthony W; Usifoh, Cyril; Usifoh, Stella

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus has spread across several Western Africa countries, adding a significant financial burden to their health systems and economies. In this article the experience with Ebola is reviewed, and economic challenges and policy recommendations are discussed to help curb the impact of other diseases in the future. The West African Ebola virus disease epidemic started in resource-constrained settings and caused thousands of fatalities during the last epidemic. Nevertheless, given population mobility, international travel, and an increasingly globalized economy, it has the potential to re-occur and evolve into a global pandemic. Struggling health systems in West African countries hinder the ability to reduce the causes and effects of the Ebola epidemic. The lessons learned include the need for strengthening health systems, mainly primary care systems, expedited access to treatments and vaccines to treat the Ebola virus disease, guidance on safety, efficacy, and regulatory standards for such treatments, and ensuring that research and development efforts are directed toward existing needs. Other lessons include adopting policies that allow for better flow of relief, averting the adverse impact of strong quarantine policy that includes exaggerating the aversion behavior by alarming trade and business partners providing financial support to strengthen growth in the affected fragile economies by the Ebola outbreak. Curbing the impact of future Ebola epidemics, or comparable diseases, requires increased long-term investments in health system strengthening, better collaboration between different international organizations, more funding for research and development efforts aimed at developing vaccines and treatments, and tools to detect, treat, and prevent future epidemics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Oncological emergencies for the internist

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umesh Das

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An oncologic emergency is defined as any acute, potentially life-threatening event, either directly or indirectly related to a patient′s cancer (ca or its treatment. It requires rapid intervention to avoid death or severe permanent damage. Most oncologic emergencies can be classified as metabolic, hematologic, structural, or side effects from chemotherapy agents. Tumor lysis syndrome is a metabolic emergency that presents as severe electrolyte abnormalities. The condition is treated with aggressive hydration, allopurinol or urate oxidase to lower uric acid levels. Hypercalcemia of malignancy is treated with aggressive rehydration, furosemide, and intravenous (IV bisphosphonates. Syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone should be suspected if a patient with ca presents with normovolemic hyponatremia. This metabolic condition usually is treated with fluid restriction and furosemide. Febrile neutropenia is a hematologic emergency that usually requires inpatient therapy with broad-spectrum antibiotics, although outpatient therapy may be appropriate for low-risk patients. Hyperviscosity syndrome usually is associated with Waldenstrφm′s macroglobulinemia, which is treated with plasmapheresis and chemotherapy. Structural oncologic emergencies are caused by direct compression of surrounding structures or by metastatic disease. Superior vena cava syndrome is the most common structural oncological emergency. Treatment options include chemotherapy, radiation, and IV stenting. Epidural spinal cord compression can be treated with dexamethasone, radiation, or surgery. Malignant pericardial effusion, which often is undiagnosed in ca patients, can be treated with pericardiocentesis or a pericardial window procedure.

  20. Energy Medicine for the Internist

    OpenAIRE

    Benor, Daniel J

    2002-01-01

    Energy medicine includes a broad variety of complementary/ alternative medicine (CAM) therapies, such as acupuncture, kinesiology, and spiritual healing. The term "energy medicine" derives from the perceptions and beliefs of therapists and patients that there are subtle, biological energies that surround and permeate the body. Recent research is confirming that these therapies can be helpful in treating many problems for which conventional medicine may have no cures. Growing numbers of doctor...

  1. October 1942: a strange epidemic paralysis in Saval, Verona, Italy. Revision and diagnosis 50 years later of tri-ortho-cresyl phosphate poisoning.

    OpenAIRE

    Tosi, L; Righetti, C; Adami, L; Zanette, G

    1994-01-01

    In the autumn of 1942 a strange epidemic paralysis started in Saval, at that time a country area but now part of the city of Verona. The epidemic went on for several months and affected 41 people, all working as owners or labourers on the same farm. Some of the farm animals (chickens, horses, cattle, pigs) also became ill. About 20 patients were admitted to the nearby city hospital. The outbreak was diagnosed as polyneuritis with a probable viral cause. Fifty years later, seven people with se...

  2. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  3. Ecological Niche Modeling for Filoviruses: A Risk Map for Ebola and Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ayebare, Samuel; Mosomtai, Gladys; Kankya, Clovice; Lutwama, Julius; Mwiine, Frank Norbert; Skjerve, Eystein

    2017-09-05

    Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance. The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus - environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software. We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all over Uganda. Potential outbreak areas for Ebola and Marburg virus disease were predicted in West, Southwest and Central parts of Uganda, which corresponds to bat distribution and previous filovirus outbreaks areas. Additionally, the models predicted the Eastern Uganda region and other areas that have not reported outbreaks before to be potential outbreak hotspots. Rainfall variables were the most important in influencing model prediction compared to temperature variables. Despite the limitations in the prediction model due to lack of adequate sample records for outbreaks, especially for the Marburg cases, the models provided risk maps to the Uganda surveillance system on filovirus outbreaks. The risk maps will aid in identifying areas to focus the filovirus surveillance for early detection and responses hence curtailing a pandemic. The results from this study also confirm previous findings that suggest that filoviruses are mainly limited by the amount of rainfall received in an area.

  4. The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhnerkempe, Michael G; Tildesley, Michael J; Lindström, Tom; Grear, Daniel A; Portacci, Katie; Miller, Ryan S; Lombard, Jason E; Werkman, Marleen; Keeling, Matt J; Wennergren, Uno; Webb, Colleen T

    2014-01-01

    Globalization has increased the potential for the introduction and spread of novel pathogens over large spatial scales necessitating continental-scale disease models to guide emergency preparedness. Livestock disease spread models, such as those for the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the United Kingdom, represent some of the best case studies of large-scale disease spread. However, generalization of these models to explore disease outcomes in other systems, such as the United States's cattle industry, has been hampered by differences in system size and complexity and the absence of suitable livestock movement data. Here, a unique database of US cattle shipments allows estimation of synthetic movement networks that inform a near-continental scale disease model of a potential FMD-like (i.e., rapidly spreading) epidemic in US cattle. The largest epidemics may affect over one-third of the US and 120,000 cattle premises, but cattle movement restrictions from infected counties, as opposed to national movement moratoriums, are found to effectively contain outbreaks. Slow detection or weak compliance may necessitate more severe state-level bans for similar control. Such results highlight the role of large-scale disease models in emergency preparedness, particularly for systems lacking comprehensive movement and outbreak data, and the need to rapidly implement multi-scale contingency plans during a potential US outbreak.

  5. Spatio-temporal analysis and visualisation of the anthrax epidemic situation in livestock in Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K; Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y; Korennoy, Fedor I; Karatayev, Bolat Sh; Mukhanbetkaliyeva, Aizada A; Abdrakhmanova, Aruzhan S

    2017-11-13

    An analysis of the anthrax epidemic situation among livestock animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016 is presented. During this time, 4,064 anthrax outbreaks (mainly in cattle, small ruminants, pigs and horses) were recorded. They fall into five historical periods of increase and decrease in the annual anthrax incidence (1933-1953; 1954-1968; 1969-1983; 1984- 2001; and 2002-2016), which has been associated with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance. To evaluate the temporal trends of incidence variation for each of these time periods, the following methods were applied: i) spatio-temporal analysis using a space-time cube to assess the presence of hotspots (i.e., areas of outbreak clustering) and the trends of their emergence over time; and ii) a linear regression model that was used to evaluate the annual numbers of outbreaks as a function of time. The results show increasing trends during the first two periods followed by a decreasing trend up to now. The peak years of anthrax outbreaks occurred in 1965-1968 but outbreaks still continue with an average annual number of outbreaks of 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.8). The space-time analysis approach enabled visualisation of areas with statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends of outbreak clustering providing a practical opportunity to inform decision-makers and allowing the veterinary services to concentrate their efforts on monitoring the possible risk factors in the identified locations.

  6. Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianmu Chen

    Full Text Available Shigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarce. To estimate the efficacy of commonly used intervention strategies, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered-Water model. No intervention was predicted to result in a total attack rate (TAR of 90% of the affected population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.65-92.80 and duration of outbreak (DO of 89 days, and the use of single-intervention strategies can be futile or even counter-productive. Prophylactics and water disinfection did not improve TAR or DO. School closure for up to 3 weeks did not help but only increased DO. Isolation alone significantly increased DO. Only antibiotics treatment could shorten the DO to 35 days with TAR unaffected. We observed that these intervention effects were additive when in combined usage under most circumstances. Combined intervention "Isolation+antibiotics+prophylactics+water disinfection" was predicted to result in the lowest TAR (41.9%, 95%CI: 36.97-47.04% and shortest DO (28 days. Our actual Shigellosis control implementation that also included school closure for 1 week, attained comparable results and the modeling produced an epidemic curve of Shigellosis highly similar to our actual outbreak data. This lends a strong support to the reality of our model that provides a possible reference for public health professionals to evaluate their strategies towards Shigellosis control.

  7. First Chikungunya Outbreak in Suriname; Clinical and Epidemiological Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Genderen, Farah T; Krishnadath, Ingrid; Sno, Rachel; Grunberg, Meritha G; Zijlmans, Wilco; Adhin, Malti R

    2016-04-01

    In June 2014, Suriname faced the first Chikungunya outbreak. Since international reports mostly focus on hospitalized patients, the least affected group, a study was conducted to describe clinical characteristics of mainly outpatients including children. In addition, the cumulative incidence of this first epidemic was investigated. During August and September 2014, clinically suspected Chikungunya cases were included in a prospective follow-up study. Blood specimens were collected and tested for viral RNA presence. Detailed clinical information was gathered through multiple telephone surveys until day 180. In addition, a three stage household-based cluster with a cross-sectional design was conducted in October, December 2014 and March 2015 to assess the cumulative incidence. Sixty-eight percent of symptomatic patients tested positive for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Arthralgia and pain in the fingers were distinctive for viremic CHIKV infected patients. Viremic CHIKV infected children (≤12 years) characteristically displayed headache and vomiting, while arthralgia was less common at onset. The disease was cleared within seven days by 20% of the patients, while 22% of the viremic CHIKV infected patients, mostly women and elderly reported persistent arthralgia at day 180. The extrapolated cumulative CHIKV incidence in Paramaribo was 249 cases per 1000 persons, based on CHIKV self-reported cases in 53.1% of the households and 90.4% IgG detected in a subset of self-reported CHIKV+ persons. CHIKV peaked in the dry season and a drastic decrease in CHIKV patients coincided with a governmental campaign to reduce mosquito breeding sites. This study revealed that persistent arthralgia was a concern, but occurred less frequently in an outpatient setting. The data support a less severe pathological outcome for Caribbean CHIKV infections. This study augments incidence data available for first outbreaks in the region and showed that actions undertaken at the national level to

  8. First Chikungunya Outbreak in Suriname; Clinical and Epidemiological Features.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farah T van Genderen

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In June 2014, Suriname faced the first Chikungunya outbreak. Since international reports mostly focus on hospitalized patients, the least affected group, a study was conducted to describe clinical characteristics of mainly outpatients including children. In addition, the cumulative incidence of this first epidemic was investigated.During August and September 2014, clinically suspected Chikungunya cases were included in a prospective follow-up study. Blood specimens were collected and tested for viral RNA presence. Detailed clinical information was gathered through multiple telephone surveys until day 180. In addition, a three stage household-based cluster with a cross-sectional design was conducted in October, December 2014 and March 2015 to assess the cumulative incidence.Sixty-eight percent of symptomatic patients tested positive for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV. Arthralgia and pain in the fingers were distinctive for viremic CHIKV infected patients. Viremic CHIKV infected children (≤12 years characteristically displayed headache and vomiting, while arthralgia was less common at onset. The disease was cleared within seven days by 20% of the patients, while 22% of the viremic CHIKV infected patients, mostly women and elderly reported persistent arthralgia at day 180. The extrapolated cumulative CHIKV incidence in Paramaribo was 249 cases per 1000 persons, based on CHIKV self-reported cases in 53.1% of the households and 90.4% IgG detected in a subset of self-reported CHIKV+ persons. CHIKV peaked in the dry season and a drastic decrease in CHIKV patients coincided with a governmental campaign to reduce mosquito breeding sites.This study revealed that persistent arthralgia was a concern, but occurred less frequently in an outpatient setting. The data support a less severe pathological outcome for Caribbean CHIKV infections. This study augments incidence data available for first outbreaks in the region and showed that actions undertaken at the

  9. First Chikungunya Outbreak in Suriname; Clinical and Epidemiological Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Genderen, Farah T.; Krishnadath, Ingrid; Sno, Rachel; Grunberg, Meritha G.; Zijlmans, Wilco; Adhin, Malti R.

    2016-01-01

    Background In June 2014, Suriname faced the first Chikungunya outbreak. Since international reports mostly focus on hospitalized patients, the least affected group, a study was conducted to describe clinical characteristics of mainly outpatients including children. In addition, the cumulative incidence of this first epidemic was investigated. Methodology During August and September 2014, clinically suspected Chikungunya cases were included in a prospective follow-up study. Blood specimens were collected and tested for viral RNA presence. Detailed clinical information was gathered through multiple telephone surveys until day 180. In addition, a three stage household-based cluster with a cross-sectional design was conducted in October, December 2014 and March 2015 to assess the cumulative incidence. Principal Findings Sixty-eight percent of symptomatic patients tested positive for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Arthralgia and pain in the fingers were distinctive for viremic CHIKV infected patients. Viremic CHIKV infected children (≤12 years) characteristically displayed headache and vomiting, while arthralgia was less common at onset. The disease was cleared within seven days by 20% of the patients, while 22% of the viremic CHIKV infected patients, mostly women and elderly reported persistent arthralgia at day 180. The extrapolated cumulative CHIKV incidence in Paramaribo was 249 cases per 1000 persons, based on CHIKV self-reported cases in 53.1% of the households and 90.4% IgG detected in a subset of self-reported CHIKV+ persons. CHIKV peaked in the dry season and a drastic decrease in CHIKV patients coincided with a governmental campaign to reduce mosquito breeding sites. Conclusions/Significance This study revealed that persistent arthralgia was a concern, but occurred less frequently in an outpatient setting. The data support a less severe pathological outcome for Caribbean CHIKV infections. This study augments incidence data available for first outbreaks in the

  10. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  11. Enterobacter hormaechei from isolate to epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paauw, A.

    2008-01-01

    A large outbreak of a multidrug-resistant Enterobacter hormaechei (EHOS) occurred at the University Medical Centre Utrecht (UMCU). The EHOS disseminated throughout the hospital despite adequate implementation of internationally accepted infection prevention guidelines, and caused invasive infections

  12. The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics: A historical urban case-study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Matthew D; Azman, Andrew S; Lewnard, Joseph A; Antillón, Marina; Simonsen, Lone; Andreasen, Viggo; Jensen, Peter K M; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2017-11-01

    Planning interventions to respond to cholera epidemics requires an understanding of the major transmission routes. Interrupting short-cycle (household, foodborne) transmission may require different approaches as compared long-cycle (environmentally-mediated/waterborne) transmission. However, differentiating the relative contribution of short- and long-cycle routes has remained difficult, and most cholera outbreak control efforts focus on interrupting long-cycle transmission. Here we use high-resolution epidemiological and municipal infrastructure data from a cholera outbreak in 1853 Copenhagen to explore the relative contribution of short- and long-cycle transmission routes during a major urban epidemic. We fit a spatially explicit time-series meta-population model to 6,552 physician-reported cholera cases from Copenhagen in 1853. We estimated the contribution of long-cycle waterborne transmission between neighborhoods using historical municipal water infrastructure data, fitting the force of infection from hydraulic flow, then comparing model performance. We found the epidemic was characterized by considerable transmission heterogeneity. Some neighborhoods acted as localized transmission hotspots, while other neighborhoods were less affected or important in driving the epidemic. We found little evidence to support long-cycle transmission between hydrologically-connected neighborhoods. Collectively, these findings suggest short-cycle transmission was significant. Spatially targeted cholera interventions, such as reactive vaccination or sanitation/hygiene campaigns in hotspot neighborhoods, would likely have been more effective in this epidemic than control measures aimed at interrupting long-cycle transmission, such as improving municipal water quality. We recommend public health planners consider programs aimed at interrupting short-cycle transmission as essential tools in the cholera control arsenal.

  13. Seroprevalence of Rift Valley fever virus in livestock during inter-epidemic period in Egypt, 2014/15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, Claudia; Gwida, Mayada; El-Ashker, Maged; El-Diasty, Mohamed; El-Beskawy, Mohamed; Ziegler, Ute; Eiden, Martin; Groschup, Martin H

    2017-04-05

    Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) caused several outbreaks throughout the African continent and the Arabian Peninsula posing significant threat to human and animal health. In Egypt the first and most important Rift Valley fever epidemic occurred during 1977/78 with a multitude of infected humans and huge economic losses in livestock. After this major outbreak, RVF epidemics re-occurred in irregular intervals between 1993 and 2003. Seroprevalence of anti-RVFV antibodies in livestock during inter-epidemic periods can be used for supporting the evaluation of the present risk exposure for animal and public health. A serosurvey was conducted during 2014/2015 in non-vaccinated livestock including camels, sheep, goats and buffalos in different areas of the Nile River Delta as well as the furthermost southeast of Egypt to investigate the presence of anti-RVFV antibodies for further evaluating of the risk exposure for animal and human health. All animals integrated in this study were born after the last Egyptian RVF epidemic in 2003 and sampled buffalos and small ruminants were not imported from other endemic countries. A total of 873 serum samples from apparently healthy animals from different host species (camels: n = 221; sheep: n = 438; goats: n = 26; buffalo: n = 188) were tested serologically using RVFV competition ELISA, virus neutralization test and/or an indirect immunofluorescence assay, depending on available serum volume. Sera were assessed positive when virus neutralization test alone or least two assays produced consistent positive results. The overall seroprevalence was 2.29% (95%CI: 1.51-3.07) ranging from 0% in goats, 0.46% in sheep (95%CI: 0.41-0.5), and 3.17% in camels (95%CI: 0.86-5.48) up to 5.85% in buffalos (95%CI: 2.75-8.95). Our findings assume currently low level of circulating virus in the investigated areas and suggest minor indication for a new RVF epidemic. Further the results may indicate that during long inter-epidemic periods

  14. Systems for prevention and control of epidemic emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calistri, Paolo; Conte, Annamaria; Natale, Fabrizio; Possenti, Luigi; Savini, Lara; Danzetta, Maria Luisa; Iannetti, Simona; Giovannini, Armando

    2013-01-01

    The development of early warning systems is fundamental for preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Data collection, however, is a costly activity and it is not possible to implement early warning systems everywhere and for all possible events. Hence, tools helping to improve the focus of surveillance efforts are of paramount importance. Risk assessment methods and other provisional modelling techniques may permit to estimate the probability of introduction and spread of infectious diseases in different geographical areas. Similarly, efficient information systems must be in place to assist the veterinary services in case of epidemic emergencies in order to support the prompt application of control measures for the containment of the infection and the reduction of the magnitude of negative consequences. This review describes two recent approaches to the estimation of the probability of introduction and spread of infectious diseases based on the use of risk maps/ spatial modelling and Social Network Analysis (SNA) techniques. The review also describes a web application developed in Italy to help official veterinary services to trace animals in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

  15. Core Genome Multilocus Sequence Typing for Identification of Globally Distributed Clonal Groups and Differentiation of Outbreak Strains of Listeria monocytogenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Hammack, Thomas S; Allard, Marc W; Strain, Errol A; Brown, Eric W

    2016-10-15

    Many listeriosis outbreaks are caused by a few globally distributed clonal groups, designated clonal complexes or epidemic clones, of Listeria monocytogenes, several of which have been defined by classic multilocus sequence typing (MLST) schemes targeting 6 to 8 housekeeping or virulence genes. We have developed and evaluated core genome MLST (cgMLST) schemes and applied them to isolates from multiple clonal groups, including those associated with 39 listeriosis outbreaks. The cgMLST clusters were congruent with MLST-defined clonal groups, which had various degrees of diversity at the whole-genome level. Notably, cgMLST could distinguish among outbreak strains and epidemiologically unrelated strains of the same clonal group, which could not be achieved using classic MLST schemes. The precise selection of cgMLST gene targets may not be critical for the general identification of clonal groups and outbreak strains. cgMLST analyses further identified outbreak strains, including those associated with recent outbreaks linked to contaminated French-style cheese, Hispanic-style cheese, stone fruit, caramel apple, ice cream, and packaged leafy green salad, as belonging to major clonal groups. We further developed lineage-specific cgMLST schemes, which can include accessory genes when core genomes do not possess sufficient diversity, and this provided additional resolution over species-specific cgMLST. Analyses of isolates from different common-source listeriosis outbreaks revealed various degrees of diversity, indicating that the numbers of allelic differences should always be combined with cgMLST clustering and epidemiological evidence to define a listeriosis outbreak. Classic multilocus sequence typing (MLST) schemes targeting internal fragments of 6 to 8 genes that define clonal complexes or epidemic clones have been widely employed to study L. monocytogenes biodiversity and its relation to pathogenicity potential and epidemiology. We demonstrated that core genome MLST

  16. Simulation of Cross-border Impacts Resulting from Classical Swine Fever Epidemics within the Netherlands and Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hop, G E; Mourits, M C M; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

    2016-02-01

    The cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL) and the two German states of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (LS) is a large and highly integrated livestock production area. This region increasingly develops towards a single epidemiological area in which disease introduction is a shared veterinary and, consequently, economic risk. The objectives of this study were to examine classical swine fever (CSF) control strategies' veterinary and direct economic impacts for NL, NRW and LS given the current production structure and to analyse CSF's cross-border causes and impacts within the NL-NRW-LS region. The course of the epidemic was simulated by the use of InterSpread Plus, whereas economic analysis was restricted to calculating disease control costs and costs directly resulting from the control measures applied. Three veterinary control strategies were considered: a strategy based on the minimum EU requirements, a vaccination and a depopulation strategy based on NL and GER's contingency plans. Regardless of the veterinary control strategy, simulated outbreak sizes and durations for 2010 were much smaller than those simulated previously, using data from over 10 years ago. For example, worst-case outbreaks (50th percentile) in NL resulted in 30-40 infected farms and lasted for two to four and a half months; associated direct costs and direct consequential costs ranged from €24.7 to 28.6 million and €11.7 to 26.7 million, respectively. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies were efficient in controlling outbreaks, especially large outbreaks, whereas the EU minimum strategy was especially deficient in controlling worst-case outbreaks. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies resulted in low direct costs and direct consequential costs. The probability of cross-border disease spread was relatively low, and cross-border spread resulted in small, short outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Few opportunities for further cross-border harmonization and

  17. How does increasing immunity change spread kernel parameters in subsequent outbreaks? – A simulation study on Bluetongue Virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Bødker, Rene; Enøe, Claes

    estimate on how future epidemics could proceed under similar conditions. However, a number of variables influence the spread of vector borne diseases. If one of these changes significantly after an outbreak, it needs to be incorporated into the model to improve the prediction on future outbreaks. Examples...... of such changes are: vaccinations, acquired immunity, vector density and control, meteorological variations, wind pattern, and so on. Including more and more variables leads to a more process oriented model. A full process oriented approach simulates the movement of virus between vectors and host, describing...... density and motion of vectors/hosts, climatic variables, and so on will theoretically be able to describe an outbreak under any circumstances. It will most likely contain parameters not very well established, and is also very heavy in computer time. Nevertheless, we have tried to create a relatively...

  18. Exploratory study on psychosocial impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak on Chinese students living in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, G; Jimba, M; Wakai, S

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the 2003 SARS outbreak on Chinese students living in Japan. A cross-sectional study was conducted using a semi-structured questionnaire. The participants were recruited at multiple locations at the University of Tokyo, Japan. The results showed approximately 60% (96/161) of the respondents felt an impact of SARS on college life; they had experienced SARS-related fear, worry, depression as well as social discrimination and had taken SARS prevention measures for daily protection in Japan during the epidemic. The magnitude of the impact was associated with socio-demographic factors, including their age, specialty, area of previous residence in China and length of stay in Japan. The findings suggest that the SARS outbreak had a psychosocial impact on the Chinese students living in Japan, even though none of them had SARS. Social support tailored for these foreign students should be provided during such a disease outbreak.

  19. Vibrio cholerae O1 epidemic variants in Angola: a retrospective study between 1992 and 2006.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romy eValia

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Cholera is still a major public health concern in many African countries. In Angola, after a decade of absence, cholera reemerged in 1987, spreading throughout the country until 1996, with outbreaks recurring in a seasonal pattern. In 2006 Angola was hit by one of the most severe outbreaks of the last decade, with ca. 240,000 cases reported.We analyzed 21 clinical strains isolated between 1992 and 2006 from several provinces throughout the country: Benguela, Bengo, Luanda, Cuando Cubango and Cabinda. We used two multiplex PCR assays to investigate discriminatory mobile genetic elements (ICEs, VSP-II, GI12, GI14, GI15, K and TLC phages and we compared the profiles obtained with those of different reference V. cholerae O1 variants (prototypical, altered and hybrid, responsible for the ongoing 7th pandemic. We also tested the strains for the presence of specific VSP-II variants and for the presence of a genomic island (WASA-1, correlated with the transmission of seventh pandemic cholera from Africa to South America. Based on the presence/absence of the analyzed genetic elements, five novel profiles were detected in the epidemic strains circulating in the 1990s. The most frequent profiles, F and G, were characterized by the absence of ICEs and the three GIs tested, and the presence of genomic island WASA-1 and the WASA variant of the VSP-II island. Our results identified unexpected variability within the 1990s epidemic, showing different rearrangements in a dynamic part of the genome not present in the prototypical V. cholerae O1 N16961. Moreover the 2006 strains differed from the current pandemic V. cholerae O1 strain. Taken together, our results highlight the role of horizontal gene transfer in diversifying the genetic background of V. cholerae within a single epidemic.

  20. Contact reductions from live poultry market closures limit the epidemic of human infections with H7N9 influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Yue; Bi, Dehua; Guo, Xiaocan; Hu, Dingwen; Feng, Dan; Tong, Yigang

    2018-03-01

    An early steep increase in the number of humans infected with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was observed in China, raising great public concern domestically and internationally. Little is known about the dynamics of the transmission contacts between poultry and human populations, although such understanding is essential for developing effective strategies to control this zoonosis. In this study, we evaluated the effects of contact reductions from live poultry markets (LPMs) closures on the transmission of H7N9 virus during epidemics in Guangdong Province, China. A mathematical model of the poultry-to-person transmission dynamics of H7N9 virus was constructed. The parameters in the model were estimated from publicly available data on confirmed cases of human infection and information on LPMs closure during 2013-2017. By fitting the model, we measured the time-dependent contact quantity of the susceptible population to LPMs. The results showed that periodic intervention strategies can greatly reduce the magnitude of outbreaks, and the earlier interventions for policy are implemented, the smaller is the outbreak. The control efforts for LPMs to decrease the contact quantity are critical in preventing epidemics in the long term. This model should provide important insights for the development of a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of avian influenza virus epidemics. Copyright © 2018 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.