Kathrin Rodríguez Llanes
Full Text Available Making decisions is complicated in a generalized way, the materials and humans resources of the entity we belong to depends on it, such as the fulfillment of its goals. But when the situations are complex, making decisions turns into a very difficult work, due to the great amount of aspects to consider when making the right choice. To make this efficiently the administration must to consult an important volume of information, which generally, is scattered and in any different formats. That’s why appears the need of developing software that crowd together all that information and be capable of, by using powerful search engines and process algorithms improve the good decisions making process. Considering previous explanation, a complete freeware developed product is proposed, this constitutes a generic and multi-platform solution, that using artificial intelligence techniques, specifically the cases based reasoning, gives the possibility to leaders of any institution or organism of making the right choice in any situation.With client-server architecture, this system is consumed from web as a service and it can be perfectly integrated with a management system or the geographic information system to facilitate the business process.
Stottler, Richard H; Pike, Bill
We are developing for STRICOM an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) for tank and mechanized infantry company commanders that teaches tactical decision making and the tactical use of FBCB2, a C4I system...
A M Kustubayeva
Full Text Available The results of the experimental research of the connection between the efficiency of decision making and emotional intelligence are presented in the article. The empirical data indicate that the ability to regulate emotion is an important indicator of the efficiency of decision making in the conditions of psychological experiment.
of an appropriate decision making method. Furthermore, some DMs may be exclusively using one or two specific methods which they are familiar with or trust and not realizing that they may be inappropriate to handle certain classes of the problems, thus yielding erroneous results. These issues reveal that in order to ensure a good decision a suitable decision method should be chosen before the decision making process proceeds. The first part of this dissertation proposes an MCDM process supported by an intelligent, knowledge-based advisor system referred to as Multi-Criteria Interactive Decision-Making Advisor and Synthesis process (MIDAS), which is able to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate decision making method and which provides insight to the user for fulfilling different preferences. The second part of this dissertation presents an autonomous decision making advisor which is capable of dealing with ever-evolving real time information and making autonomous decisions under uncertain conditions. The advisor encompasses a Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation which takes uncertainty into account when determines the best action for each system state. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
Gomez, Jorge; Garrido, Leonardo; Perez, Francisco
Intelligent Decision-Making Support Systems (i-DMSS) are specialized IT-based systems that support some or several phases of the individual, team, organizational or inter-organizational decision making process by deploying some or several intelligent mechanisms. This book pursues the following academic aims: (i) generate a compendium of quality theoretical and applied contributions in Intelligent Decision-Making Support Systems (i-DMSS) for engineering and management IT-based service systems (ITSS); (ii) diffuse scarce knowledge about foundations, architectures and effective and efficient methods and strategies for successfully planning, designing, building, operating, and evaluating i-DMSS for ITSS, and (iii) create an awareness of, and a bridge between ITSS and i-DMSS academicians and practitioners in the current complex and dynamic engineering and management ITSS organizational. The book presents a collection of 11 chapters referring to relevant topics for both IT service systems and i-DMSS including: pr...
Czubenko, Michał; Kowalczuk, Zdzisław; Ordys, Andrew
The paper presents and discusses a system ( xDriver ) which uses an Intelligent System of Decision-making (ISD) for the task of car driving. The principal subject is the implementation, simulation and testing of the ISD system described earlier in our publications (Kowalczuk and Czubenko in artificial intelligence and soft computing lecture notes in computer science, lecture notes in artificial intelligence, Springer, Berlin, 2010, 2010, In Int J Appl Math Comput Sci 21(4):621-635, 2011, In Pomiary Autom Robot 2(17):60-5, 2013) for the task of autonomous driving. The design of the whole ISD system is a result of a thorough modelling of human psychology based on an extensive literature study. Concepts somehow similar to the ISD system can be found in the literature (Muhlestein in Cognit Comput 5(1):99-105, 2012; Wiggins in Cognit Comput 4(3):306-319, 2012), but there are no reports of a system which would model the human psychology for the purpose of autonomously driving a car. The paper describes assumptions for simulation, the set of needs and reactions (characterizing the ISD system), the road model and the vehicle model, as well as presents some results of simulation. It proves that the xDriver system may behave on the road as a very inexperienced driver.
Campbell, Merle Wayne
Intelligent decision systems have the potential to support and greatly amplify human decision-making across a number of industries and domains. However, despite the rapid improvement in the underlying capabilities of these "intelligent" systems, increasing their acceptance as decision aids in industry has remained a formidable challenge.…
This book presents different methods for analyzing the body language (movement, position, use of personal space, silences, pauses and tone, the eyes, pupil dilation or constriction, smiles, body temperature and the like) for better understanding people’s needs and actions, including biometric data gathering and reading. Different studies described in this book indicate that sufficiently much data, information and knowledge can be gained by utilizing biometric technologies. This is the first, wide-ranging book that is devoted completely to the area of intelligent decision support systems, biometrics technologies and their integrations. This book is designated for scholars, practitioners and doctoral and master’s degree students in various areas and those who are interested in the latest biometric and intelligent decision making support problems and means for their resolutions, biometric and intelligent decision making support systems and the theory and practice of their integration and the opportunities fo...
Sparks, Betsy H.
Business Intelligence is a major expenditure in many organizations and necessary for competitive advantage. These expenditures do not result in maximum benefits for the organization if the information obtained from the Business Intelligence System (BIS) is not used in the management decision-making process. This quantitative research study used an…
Barreto, Mara M.G.; Ebecken, Nelson F.F. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia
The objective of this paper is to present an intelligent system for helping in decision making about risk analysis in petroleum industry management. Such a system supports explicit inconsistencies in its knowledge bases, and is able to solve it by means of a decision's procedure, in which Fuzzy Logic is used. Expert Systems which knowledge bases carry out explicitly inconsistencies are called paraconsistent systems and were initially proposed by Da Costa and Subrahmanian. The defuzzyfication process of a paraconsistent model was already suggested by Barreto, Ebecken and Clement, and established by Barreto and Ebecken. In Barreto, Ebecken and Clemente show an application of this model for helping in decision making in a business situation. The system that will be presented here is a simulation of many possible applications of this model, and helps the analyses of risk business petroleum project's investment, and, it is desirable, can point out some possibilities of getting out difficulties when the risk is increased. In the introduction, we define some risk result's indicators to be considered, such as, petroleum business project duration, staffing, priority; and we define the system's logical structure. In the Overriding Part, firstly, we show the implemented system's , simulation, how it works, how to get outputs from the given and how to analyze the final results, and explicit the methods used in situations where the inconsistencies appear giving comments about the critical situations. Finally, in the conclusion, we comment the coherence of results, and give comments about some others applications of this kind of systems. (author)
Full Text Available This paper is about the intelligent decision-making system for the smart grid based electricity market which requires distributed decision making on the competitive environments composed of many players and components. It is very important to consider the renewable energy and emission problem which are expected to be monitored by wireless communication networks. It is very difficult to predict renewable energy outputs and emission prices over time horizon, so it could be helpful to catch up those data on real time basis using many different kinds of communication infrastructures. On this backgrounds this paper provides an algorithm to make an optimal decision considering above factors.
This thesis consists of five projects in three topics with a shared theme of understanding cellular decision-making processes with mathematical modeling. In the first topic, we address the possible interaction between bacterial Toxin-Antitoxin (TA) systems and stringent response alarmone guanosin...
Moteaal Asadi Shirzi
Full Text Available The focus of this research is to introduce the concept of combined intelligent control (CIC as an effective architecture for decision-making and control of intelligent agents and multi-robot sets. Basically, the CIC is a combination of various architectures and methods from fields such as artificial intelligence, Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI, control and biological computing. Although any intelligent architecture may be very effective for some specific applications, it could be less for others. Therefore, CIC combines and arranges them in a way that the strengths of any approach cover the weaknesses of others. In this paper first, we introduce some intelligent architectures from a new aspect. Afterward, we offer the CIC by combining them. CIC has been executed in a multi-agent set. In this set, robots must cooperate to perform some various tasks in a complex and nondeterministic environment with a low sensory feedback and relationship. In order to investigate, improve, and correct the combined intelligent control method, simulation software has been designed which will be presented and considered. To show the ability of the CIC algorithm as a distributed architecture, a central algorithm is designed and compared with the CIC.
This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.
Berkoff, Russ H.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With the advent of a global information society, the US will seek to tap the potential of advanced computing capability to enhance its ability to conduct foreign policy decision making. This thesis explores the potential for improving individual and organizational decision making capabilities by means of artificial intelligence (AI). The use of AI will allow us to take advantage of the plethora of information available to obtain an edg...
Enrico Rubaltelli; Sergio Agnoli; Michela Rancan; Tiziana Pozzoli
Previous work on investment decision-making suggested that emotions prevent investors from taking risks and from investing in a rational way, whereas other work found that there is great variability in people’s ability to manage and use emotional feedbacks. We hypothesized that people with high trait emotional intelligence should be more willing, than people with low trait emotional intelligence, to accept risks when making an investment. Data supported a model in which trait emotional intell...
Mary Julieth Murillo Junco; Gustavo Cáceres Castellanos
This paper deals with a literature review about the origin, development and implementation of Business Intelligence focused directly to solving problems in the financial area of the different organizations. Wanted contextualize how it tools have been incorporated into the decision making processes of modern business. A feature of the way it makes decisions has to do with the rational use made of the information available, and it is in this field where information technology and communication ...
Mary Julieth Murillo Junco
Full Text Available This paper deals with a literature review about the origin, development and implementation of Business Intelligence focused directly to solving problems in the financial area of the different organizations. Wanted contextualize how it tools have been incorporated into the decision making processes of modern business. A feature of the way it makes decisions has to do with the rational use made of the information available, and it is in this field where information technology and communication play a role today
Madureira, Ana; Marques, Viriato
This book provides a general overview and original analysis of new developments and applications in several areas of Computational Intelligence and Information Systems. Computational Intelligence has become an important tool for engineers to develop and analyze novel techniques to solve problems in basic sciences such as physics, chemistry, biology, engineering, environment and social sciences. The material contained in this book addresses the foundations and applications of Artificial Intelligence and Decision Support Systems, Complex and Biological Inspired Systems, Simulation and Evolution of Real and Artificial Life Forms, Intelligent Models and Control Systems, Knowledge and Learning Technologies, Web Semantics and Ontologies, Intelligent Tutoring Systems, Intelligent Power Systems, Self-Organized and Distributed Systems, Intelligent Manufacturing Systems and Affective Computing. The contributions have all been written by international experts, who provide current views on the topics discussed and pr...
Ph.D. Silviu Cojocaru
Full Text Available Despite the limits imposed by the computer’s impossibility to perfectly duplicate the human reasoning, the information systems that assist decision making and the business intelligence components are considered nowadays compulsory instruments of the modern manager; most of the daily decision procedures, the information required by the decision making process together with the information search and retrieval techniques are taken over completely by these systems. Furthermore, their continuous development, doubled the improvement of computers’ performances, offer increased possibilities to take over major parts of some of the most intense reasoning activities performed by humans
Rana Rashid Rehman
Full Text Available The current study examines the relationship among transformational leadership style and decision making styles. It also determines the moderating role of emotional intelligence in predicting this relationship. Three hypotheses are generated for the study i.e., twohypotheses are to measure the relationship among transformational leadership style and decision making styles whereas third hypothesis is to assess the moderating effect of emotional intelligence. Questionnaire method is used to collect data from 113respondents. Regression analysis is utilized to study the relationship among transformational leadership style and decision making styles and step-wise regression analysis is used to study moderating effect of emotional intelligence. The study foundthat transformational leadership style strongly predicts rational and dependant decision making styles and weakly predict intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles while no association founds with avoidant decision making styles. Present research also foundthat emotional intelligence moderates the relationship among transformational leadership style and decision making styles.
The sheer volume and dynamics among system agents in healthcare makes decision-making a daunting task at all levels. Being clear about what leaders mean by "healthcare system" is critical in aligning system strategy and leadership decision-making. This article presents an emerging set of lenses (ideology and beliefs, rational and irrational information processing, interpersonal social dynamics, process and value creation, and context) to help frame leadership decision-making in healthcare systems. © 2015 The Canadian College of Health Leaders.
van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A David
Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a "forward'' mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders.
Reinforcement and Systemic Machine Learning for Decision Making There are always difficulties in making machines that learn from experience. Complete information is not always available-or it becomes available in bits and pieces over a period of time. With respect to systemic learning, there is a need to understand the impact of decisions and actions on a system over that period of time. This book takes a holistic approach to addressing that need and presents a new paradigm-creating new learning applications and, ultimately, more intelligent machines. The first book of its kind in this new an
Henard, Ralph E.
Possible future developments in artificial intelligence (AI) as well as its limitations are considered that have implications for institutional research in higher education, and especially decision making and decision support systems. It is noted that computer software programs have been developed that store knowledge and mimic the decision-making…
Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.
Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…
Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is
Shogren, Karrie A; Wehmeyer, Michael L; Uyanik, Hatice; Heidrich, Megan
Supported decision making has received increased attention as an alternative to guardianship and a means to enable people with intellectual and developmental disabilities to exercise their right to legal capacity. Assessments are needed that can used by people with disabilities and their systems of supports to identify and plan for needed supports to enable decision making. This article describes the steps taken to develop such an assessment tool, the Supported Decision Making Inventory System (SDMIS), and initial feedback received from self-advocates with intellectual disability. The three sections of the SDMIS (Supported Decision Making Personal Factors Inventory, Supported Decision Making Environmental Demands Inventory, and Decision Making Autonomy Inventory) are described and implications for future research, policy, and practice are discussed.
Shirley Jie Xuan Wang
Full Text Available This article addresses the possibility of incorporating intelligent decision support systems into reinsurance decision-making. This involves the insurance company and the reinsurance company, and is negotiated through reinsurance intermediaries. The article proposes a decision flow to model the reinsurance design and selection process. This article focuses on adopting more than one optimality criteria under a more generic combinational design of commonly used reinsurance products, i.e., proportional reinsurance and stop-loss reinsurance. In terms of methodology, the significant contribution of the study the incorporation of the well-established decision analysis tool multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM into the modelling of reinsurance selection. To illustrate the feasibility of incorporating intelligent decision supporting systems in the reinsurance market, the study includes a numerical case study using the simulation software @Risk in modeling insurance claims, as well as programming in MATLAB to realize MADM. A list of managerial implications could be drawn from the case study results. Most importantly, when choosing the most appropriate type of reinsurance, insurance companies should base their decisions on multiple measurements instead of single-criteria decision-making models so that their decisions may be more robust.
Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.
A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...
The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.
Artificial intelligence is often used when creating believable virtual characters in games or in other types of virtual environments. The intelligent behavior these characters show to the player is often flawed, leading to a worse gameplay experience. In particular, there is often little or no emotional impact on the decision making of the characters. This thesis focuses on extending decision-making and pathfinding mechanisms for virtual characters, with a particular focus on the use of emoti...
Rana Rashid Rehman; Ajmal Waheed
The current study examines the relationship among transformational leadership style and decision making styles. It also determines the moderating role of emotional intelligence in predicting this relationship. Three hypotheses are generated for the study i.e., twohypotheses are to measure the relationship among transformational leadership style and decision making styles whereas third hypothesis is to assess the moderating effect of emotional intelligence. Questionnaire method is used to coll...
This book presents recently developed intelligent techniques with applications and theory in the area of quality management. The involved applications of intelligence include techniques such as fuzzy sets, neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc. The book consists of classical quality management topics dealing with intelligent techniques for solving the complex quality management problems. The book will serve as an excellent reference for quality managers, researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students in this area. The authors of the chapters are well-known researchers in the area of quality management. .
Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.
The problems concerning forecast and decision making are analyzed. The typical tasks arising in the forecasting process of the power systems with hierarchical structure formulated and brought to formal description
Mezera, Filip; Křupka, Jiří
This article deals with decision-making support methods’ implementation in a medium size financial company with international operations. The objective of this article is to show the abilities of these methods to precise decision-making of management. At the beginning of this article there is briefly described the existing situation in this business sector in Central Europe. After that part Business Intelligence methods are described as well as the reasons while these methods have been introd...
Bo Sun; Qiang Feng; Songjie Li
According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules) based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negoti...
Mancini, D.; Vaassen, E.H.J.; Dameri, R.P.
This book contains a collection of research papers on accounting information systems including their strategic role in decision processes, within and between companies. An accounting system is a complex system composed of a mix of strictly interrelated elements such as data, information, human
The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...
Schaefer, Larry; Pressman, Rob
This material includes student guide sheets, reference material, and tape script for the audio-tutorial unit on Cultural Systems. An audio tape is used with the materials. The material is designed for use with Connecticut schools, but can be adapted to other localities. The materials in this unit consider components of cultural systems, land use…
for Strategic Management. The book was published in 2012 by Springer-Verlag, London, as a research monograph in the publisher’s series about Decision Engineering. The intention behind this new book – with its focus upon ‘greening’ of strategic decisions – is to provide a general and less technical description......The book is based on my participation in the SUSTAIN research project 2012-2017 about National Sustainable Transport Planning funded by the Danish Research Council (Innovationsfonden). Many of the issues treated here have a backdrop in my book Complex Strategic Choices – Applying Systemic Planning...... to this application area. In fact a company relocation decision case has been used to introduce the potential of SP as regards providing decision support for strategic decision making. A main concern in this presentation of SP, which deviates from the Springer book referred to above, is to highlight that ‘greening...
Full Text Available Many organizations are in front of most competitive economic environments, where, in order to survive, they must reduce costs all the time and adopt the most intelligent business strategies. In most decision making activities the manager has to decide which variant is the most advantageous, taking into account a multitude of criterions. Expert systems use the expert's knowledge and problem solving skills in a particular subject area throughout an organization, and can propose the optimal variant to be chosen. In this paper we have outlined the role of multicriterial methods in programming expert systems to decide in favor of the most eligible variant between a multitude of possibilities. We also made a case study and designed the prototype of an expert system for choosing the most profitable offer among many, in the prenegotiation stage, for a company, in order to organize the negotiation processes accor-dingly. In this respect, we tried to highlight the usefulness of multicriterial mathematical me-thods in three negotiation processes of a Romanian negotiation team with foreign negotiation teams for the acquisition of an equipment.
Frank, M.J.; Cohen, M.X.; Sanfey, A.G.
Various psychological models posit the existence of two systems that contribute to decision making. The first system is bottom-up, automatic, intuitive, emotional, and implicit, while the second system is top-down, controlled, deliberative, and explicit. It has become increasingly evident that this
Cara Okleshen Peters, Ph.D.
Full Text Available This paper highlights the potential of customer decision support systems (CDSS to assist students in education-related decision making. Faculty can use these resources to more effectively advise students on various elements of college life, while students can employ them to more actively participate in their own learning and improve their academic experience. This conceptual paper summarizes consumer decision support systems (CDSS concepts and presents exemplar websites students could utilize to support their education-related decision making. Finally, the authors discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks such resources engender from a student perspective and conclude with directions for future research.
Wei Yanhui; Su Desong; Chen Weihua; Zhang Jianbo
The article first reviewed three operation support systems currently used in NPP: real-time information surveillance system, important equipment surveillance system and plant process control and monitoring system, then presents the structure and function of three expert support sub-systems (intelligent alarm monitoring system, computer-based operating procedure support system, safety information expert decision support system). Finally the article discussed the meaning of a kind of operation decision making support system. (authors)
Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coher...
As a feedback mechanism to promote or improve the quality of clinical decisions in nursing, standards for quality clinical decision-making are proposed in an exemplary manner. In addition, a system for quality clinical decisionmaking in nursing capitalises on the heritage of the nursing process. Considering the changes and ...
This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
Full Text Available According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negotiation and independent negotiation is established, and the heuristic rules applied to global and local maintenance decision making is proposed. Based on Contract Net Protocol and the heuristic rules, the maintenance decision making algorithm is put forward. Finally, a fleet consisting of 10 aircrafts on a 3-wave continuous mission is illustrated to verify this method. Simulation results indicate that this method can improve the availability of the fleet, meet mission demands, rationalize the utilization of support resources and provide support for online maintenance decision making among a mission oriented fleet.
The study of emotion has gathered momentum in the field of environmental science, specifically in the context of community resource decision-making. Of particular interest in this review is the potential influence of emotion, risk and threat perception on individuals' decisions to acceptance and adopt decentralised water systems, such as rainwater tanks and greywater systems. The role of message framing is also considered in detail, as well as the influences that different types of framing can have on decision making. These factors are considered as possible predictors for analysing community acceptance of decentralised water in urban environments. Concepts believed to be influenced by emotion, such as trust and framing, are also discussed as potentially meaningful contributors to an overall model of community acceptance of decentralised water. Recommendations are made for how emotion-based concepts, such as risk and threat, can be targeted to facilitate widespread adoption of decentralised systems and how researchers can explore different types of emotions that influence decision making in distinct ways. This review is an important theoretical step in advancing the psycho-social understanding of acceptance and adoption of on-site water sources. Avenues for future research are recommended, including the need for greater theoretical development to encourage future social science research on decentralised systems. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Implementation of the business intelligence concept is enabling new opportunities for the labor market research and management. Labor market intelligence means a competent decision making process in the labor market. Such process should be based on the comprehensive set of analytical technologies and tools. The analysis of online information available at websites of state organizations working in the labor market of the Republic of Moldova has shown that many them are still at the very beginning of the effective data using.
Ansaripour, Amir; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Steenhoek, Adri; Redekop, William K
Previous studies of health policies in Iran have not focused exclusively on the drug reimbursement process. The aim of this study was to describe the entire drug reimbursement process and the stakeholders, and discuss issues faced by policymakers. Review of documents describing the administrative rules and directives of stakeholders, supplemented by published statistics and interviews with experts and policymakers. Iran has a systematic process for the assessment, appraisal, and judgment of drug reimbursements. The two most important organizations in this process are the Food and Drug Organization, which considers clinical effectiveness, safety, and economic issues, and the Supreme Council of Health Insurance, which considers various criteria, including budget impact and cost-effectiveness. Ultimately, the Iranian Cabinet approves a drug and recommends its use to all health insurance organizations. Reimbursed drugs account for about 53.5% of all available drugs and 77.3% of drug expenditures. Despite its strengths, the system faces various issues, including conflicting stakeholder aims, lengthy decision-making duration, limited access to decision-making details, and rigidity in the assessment process. The Iranian drug reimbursement system uses decision-making criteria and a structured approach similar to those in other countries. Important shortcomings in the system include out-of-pocket contributions due to lengthy decision making, lack of transparency, and conflicting interests among stakeholders. Iranian policymakers should consider a number of ways to remedy these problems, such as case studies of individual drugs and closer examination of experiences in other countries. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the
Kasamatsu, Mizuki; Hanada, Satoshi; Noda, Eisuke
Decision Make Supporting System is designed to support appropriate decision made by top management in the nuclear severe conditions. With crisis response in nuclear power plant (NPP), information entanglement between sites and control centers during intense situations interfere with prompt and accurate decision making. This research started with that kind of background. In order to solve the issue of the information entanglement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) carried out the development of the Decision Make Supporting System and the system applies the technology combining the human factors engineering (HFE) and information and communication technology (ICT). During the crisis response, various commands, reactions and communications in a human system need to be managed. Therefore, the combined HFE method including detailed task analysis, user experience (UX), graphic user interface (GUI) and related human-system interface (HSI) design method is applied to the design of the system. These design results systematize the functions that prevent interference with decision-making in the headquarters for incident management. This new solution as a system enhances the safety improvement of the NPP and contributes to develop the skills and abilities of the resources in the NPP. The system has three key features for supporting emergency situations: 'understanding the situation', 'planning the next action', and 'managing resources'. The system helps commanders and responders to grasp the whole situation and allows them to share information in real time to get a whole picture, and the system accumulates the data of the past events in the chronological order to understand correctly how they happened and plan the next action by using a knowledge database that MHI has been developed. If the unexpected event happens which are not in the incident scenario, the system provides support to formulate alternative strategies and measures. With this
Gabrzhinskij, I.; Skurovets, V.
Classification of factors, affecting decision-making in the process of power engineering management is given. General formulation of the problem and main stages of decision-making are considered. Principle scheme of heuristic procedure of decision-making is suggested
Di Fabio, Annamaria; Palazzeschi, Letizia; Bar-On, Reuven
This study examines the role of personality traits, core self-evaluation, and emotional intelligence (EI) in career decision-making difficulties. Italian university students (N = 232) responded to questions on the Big Five Questionnaire, Core Self-Evaluation Scale, Bar-On Emotional Quotient Inventory, and Career Decision-Making Difficulties…
Proctor, Robert W; Yih, Yuehwern
This book brings together an interdisciplinary group of experts to provide increased understanding of the ways in which cultural differences may influence decision making and action. It brings together current knowledge about decision processes, culture and cognition, design of products and interfaces for human interaction with machines and organizational processes culled from a wide variety of sources and puts them into one comprehensive resource. It examines how to design systems used by individuals from different cultures and accommodate the varied backgrounds that affect the users' decisio
Velasco-Garcia, Patricia; Varbanov, Petar Sabev; Arellano-Garcia, Harvey; Wozny, Guenter
Utility systems provide heat and power to industrial sites. The importance of operating these systems in an optimal way has increased significantly due to the unstable and in the long term rising prices of fossil fuels as well as the need for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents an analysis of the problem for supporting operator decision making under conditions of variable steam demands from the production processes on an industrial site. An optimisation model has been developed, where besides for running the utility system, also the costs associated with starting-up the operating units have been modelled. The illustrative case study shows that accounting for the shut-downs and start-ups of utility operating units can bring significant cost savings. - Highlights: → Optimisation methodology for decision making on running utility systems. → Accounting for varying steam demands. → Optimal operating specifications when a demand change occurs. → Operating costs include start-up costs of boilers and other units. → Validated on a real-life case study. Up to 20% cost savings are possible.
Fischer, T; Brothers, K B; Erdmann, P; Langanke, M
Systems medicine is the name for an assemblage of scientific strategies and practices that include bioinformatics approaches to human biology (especially systems biology); "big data" statistical analysis; and medical informatics tools. Whereas personalized and precision medicine involve similar analytical methods applied to genomic and medical record data, systems medicine draws on these as well as other sources of data. Given this distinction, the clinical translation of systems medicine poses a number of important ethical and epistemological challenges for researchers working to generate systems medicine knowledge and clinicians working to apply it. This article focuses on three key challenges: First, we will discuss the conflicts in decision-making that can arise when healthcare providers committed to principles of experimental medicine or evidence-based medicine encounter individualized recommendations derived from computer algorithms. We will explore in particular whether controlled experiments, such as comparative effectiveness trials, should mediate the translation of systems medicine, or if instead individualized findings generated through "big data" approaches can be applied directly in clinical decision-making. Second, we will examine the case of the Riyadh Intensive Care Program Mortality Prediction Algorithm, pejoratively referred to as the "death computer," to demonstrate the ethical challenges that can arise when big-data-driven scoring systems are applied in clinical contexts. We argue that the uncritical use of predictive clinical algorithms, including those envisioned for systems medicine, challenge basic understandings of the doctor-patient relationship. Third, we will build on the recent discourse on secondary findings in genomics and imaging to draw attention to the important implications of secondary findings derived from the joint analysis of data from diverse sources, including data recorded by patients in an attempt to realize their
Muhd Yusuf Dayang Hasliza
Full Text Available The study reveals that causation, rather than effectuation, decision-making strategy is a more significant predictor of sustainable performance of SMEs. However, social intelligence was not found to be a significant moderator of entrepreneurial decision-making-sustainable performance relationship. The study uses data from a survey among 91 technology-based SMEs (TBS in Malaysia and employs structural equation modelling techniques for data analysis. A new instrument to measure all three variables of entrepreneurial decision-making strategy, social intelligence, and venture performance is proposed based on adoption and adaptation of existing validated scales available in literature.
Lopez, Israel; Sarigul-Klijn, Nesrin
Situational awareness and learning are necessary to identify and select the optimal set of mutually non-exclusive hypothesis in order to maximize mission performance and adapt system behavior accordingly. This paper presents a hierarchical and decentralized approach for integrated damage assessment and trajectory planning in aircraft with uncertain navigational decision-making. Aircraft navigation can be safely accomplished by properly addressing the following: decision-making, obstacle perception, aircraft state estimation, and aircraft control. When in-flight failures or damage occur, rapid and precise decision-making under imprecise information is required in order to regain and maintain control of the aircraft. To achieve planned aircraft trajectory and complete safe landing, the uncertainties in system dynamics of the damaged aircraft need to be learned and incorporated at the level of motion planning. The damaged aircraft is simulated via a simplified kinematic model. The different sources and perspectives of uncertainties in the damage assessment process and post-failure trajectory planning are presented and classified. The decision-making process for an emergency motion planning and landing is developed via the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The objective of the trajectory planning is to arrive at a target position while maximizing the safety of the aircraft given uncertain conditions. Simulations are presented for an emergency motion planning and landing that takes into account aircraft dynamics, path complexity, distance to landing site, runway characteristics, and subjective human decision.
Jain, Lakhmi C
The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c
Merino, Gabriel Guillermo
The design of grid-connected photovoltaic wind generator system supplying a farmstead in Nebraska has been undertaken in this dissertation. The design process took into account competing criteria that motivate the use of different sources of energy for electric generation. The criteria considered were 'Financial', 'Environmental', and 'User/System compatibility'. A distance based multi-objective decision making methodology was developed to rank design alternatives. The method is based upon a precedence order imposed upon the design objectives and a distance metric describing the performance of each alternative. This methodology advances previous work by combining ambiguous information about the alternatives with a decision-maker imposed precedence order in the objectives. Design alternatives, defined by the photovoltaic array and wind generator installed capacities, were analyzed using the multi-objective decision making approach. The performance of the design alternatives was determined by simulating the system using hourly data for an electric load for a farmstead and hourly averages of solar irradiation, temperature and wind speed from eight wind-solar energy monitoring sites in Nebraska. The spatial variability of the solar energy resource within the region was assessed by determining semivariogram models to krige hourly and daily solar radiation data. No significant difference was found in the predicted performance of the system when using kriged solar radiation data, with the models generated vs. using actual data. The spatial variability of the combined wind and solar energy resources was included in the design analysis by using fuzzy numbers and arithmetic. The best alternative was dependent upon the precedence order assumed for the main criteria. Alternatives with no PV array or wind generator dominated when the 'Financial' criteria preceded the others. In contrast, alternatives with a nil component of PV array but a high wind generator component
In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market
The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
Irwin, J David
Technology has now progressed to the point that intelligent systems are replacing humans in the decision making processes as well as aiding in the solution of very complex problems. In many cases intelligent systems are already outperforming human activities. Artificial neural networks are not only capable of learning how to classify patterns, such images or sequence of events, but they can also effectively model complex nonlinear systems. Their ability to classify sequences of events is probably more popular in industrial applications where there is an inherent need to model nonlinear system
Beare, J W
A concept and plan is proposed for a system to record on-going decision-making by the AECB so that the decision-making can be retrieved in the future. The system could also be used to retrieve past decision-making. (author). 4 tabs., 1 fig.
A concept and plan is proposed for a system to record on-going decision-making by the AECB so that the decision-making can be retrieved in the future. The system could also be used to retrieve past decision-making. (author). 4 tabs., 1 fig
Hutchinson, Marie; Hurley, John; Kozlowski, Desirée; Whitehair, Leeann
To explore clinical nurses' experiences of using emotional intelligence capabilities during clinical reasoning and decision-making. There has been little research exploring whether, or how, nurses employ emotional intelligence (EI) in clinical reasoning and decision-making. Qualitative phase of a larger mixed-methods study. Semistructured qualitative interviews with a purposive sample of registered nurses (n = 12) following EI training and coaching. Constructivist thematic analysis was employed to analyse the narrative transcripts. Three themes emerged: the sensibility to engage EI capabilities in clinical contexts, motivation to actively engage with emotions in clinical decision-making and incorporating emotional and technical perspectives in decision-making. Continuing to separate cognition and emotion in research, theorising and scholarship on clinical reasoning is counterproductive. Understanding more about nurses' use of EI has the potential to improve the calibre of decisions, and the safety and quality of care delivered. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Neilan, James H.; Cross, Charles; Rothhaar, Paul; Tran, Loc; Motter, Mark; Qualls, Garry; Trujillo, Anna; Allen, B. Danette
Autonomous decision making in the presence of uncertainly is a deeply studied problem space particularly in the area of autonomous systems operations for land, air, sea, and space vehicles. Various techniques ranging from single algorithm solutions to complex ensemble classifier systems have been utilized in a research context in solving mission critical flight decisions. Realized systems on actual autonomous hardware, however, is a difficult systems integration problem, constituting a majority of applied robotics development timelines. The ability to reliably and repeatedly classify objects during a vehicles mission execution is vital for the vehicle to mitigate both static and dynamic environmental concerns such that the mission may be completed successfully and have the vehicle operate and return safely. In this paper, the Autonomy Incubator proposes and discusses an ensemble learning and recognition system planned for our autonomous framework, AEON, in selected domains, which fuse decision criteria, using prior experience on both the individual classifier layer and the ensemble layer to mitigate environmental uncertainty during operation.
Pulsifer, P. L.; Stieglitz, M.
that social and community-building aspects are as important as technology. Establishing cyberinfrastructure for informed, intelligent decision making for the polar regions will require an innovative combination of emerging technologies and community-building across stakeholders.
Jere Jakulin Tadeja
Full Text Available Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic and social factors (tourists is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.
...) at Cornell during the first three years of operation. IISI's mandate is threefold: To perform and stimulate research in computational and data-intensive methods for intelligent decision making systems...
Lyles, Garry; Flores, Tim; Hundley, Jason; Monk, Timothy; Feldman,Stuart
The Space Shuttle program has ended and elements of the Constellation Program have either been cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low earth orbit (LEO) large-scale missions for the next several decades. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, an SLS decision-making framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing figure of merit (FOM)-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper focuses on the various steps and methods of this process (rather than specific data) that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics in support of the successful completion of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.
Full Text Available email@example.com Making decisions in a business intelligence (BI environment can become extremely challenging and sometimes even impossible if the data on which the decisions are based are of poor quality. It is only possible to utilise data effectively when it is accurate, up-to-date, complete and available when needed. The BI decision makers and users are in the best position to determine the quality of the data available to them. It is important to ask the right questions of them; therefore the issues of information quality in the BI environment were established through a literature study. Information-related problems may cause supplier relationships to deteriorate, reduce internal productivity and the business' confidence in IT. Ultimately it can have implications for an organisation's ability to perform and remain competitive. The purpose of this article is aimed at identifying the underlying factors that prevent information from being easily and effectively utilised and understanding how these factors can influence the decision-making process, particularly within a BI environment. An exploratory investigation was conducted at a large retail organisation in South Africa to collect empirical data from BI users through unstructured interviews. Some of the main findings indicate specific causes that impact the decisions of BI users, including accuracy, inconsistency, understandability and availability of information. Key performance measures that are directly impacted by the quality of data on decision-making include waste, availability, sales and supplier fulfilment. The time spent on investigating and resolving data quality issues has a major impact on productivity. The importance of documentation was highlighted as an important issue that requires further investigation. The initial results indicate the value of
Taking major life decisions, e.g. what career to follow, is difficult and sometimes emotional. One has to find out what exactly one wants, consider the long-term consequences of the decisions and be empathetic for loved ones affected by the decisions. Decision making also deals with establishing and
Full Text Available The article discusses the theoretical and methodological positions in the formation of info-syntanalitical management providing service. The author determines the directions in the improvement of the info-accounting formalization within the social phenomena and processes due to using there the info-syntanalitical identification. The management process, which is essentially the exchange of information between the management object and the management system, is examined. It is proved the necessity of the information, which should be objective, reliable, understandable, completed and useful for making or amending managerial decisions. The information sources used for decision-making are explored. It is determined that they serve as statistical observation, accounting and various off-classified data that characterize market and climatic conditions, regulatory environment, political stability, investment climate, etc. It is argued that the basis of the service activity is the staff, methods and conditions of service, while the effectiveness of the service depends on the correct management activity, which is provided by informative needs at different levels carried out with the help of information-syntactical service. The necessity of research was emphasized as the triad consisting of information, analytics and service, the task of which is to use existing information, to identify the reasons of process (situation undesirable development and to synthesize the results of the analytical assessment, to determine the reasonable directions of solving problem and in the most appropriate form to convey the possible options of managerial decisions to users, i.e. to create a high-quality service. It is generalized that the essence of the info-syntalitical service is expressed through the improvement of management efficiency by the improving display of in-depth reflection and reasonable prediction of the developing management object, as well as increasing the
Race, Margaret S.; Randolph, Richard O.
While formal principles have been adopted for the eventuality of detecting intelligent life in our galaxy (SETI Principles), no such guidelines exist for the discovery of non-intelligent extraterrestrial life within the solar system. Current scientifically based planetary protection policies for solar system exploration address how to undertake exploration, but do not provide clear guidance on what to do if and when life is detected. Considering that martian life could be detected under several different robotic and human exploration scenarios in the coming decades, it is appropriate to anticipate how detection of non-intelligent, microbial life could impact future exploration missions and activities, especially on Mars. This paper discusses a proposed set of interim guidelines based loosely on the SETI Principles and addresses issues extending from the time of discovery through future handling and treatment of extraterrestrial life on Mars or elsewhere. Based on an analysis of both scientific and ethical considerations, there is a clear need for developing operating protocols applicable at the time of discovery and a decision making framework that anticipates future missions and activities, both robotic and human. There is growing scientific confidence that the discovery of extraterrestrial life in some form is nearly inevitable. If and when life is discovered beyond Earth, non-scientific dimensions may strongly influence decisions about the nature and scope of future missions and activities. It is appropriate to encourage international discussion and consideration of the issues prior to an event of such historical significance.
Danner, Daniel; Hagemann, Dirk; Schankin, Andrea; Hager, Marieke; Funke, Joachim
The present study investigated cognitive performance measures beyond IQ. In particular, we investigated the psychometric properties of dynamic decision making variables and implicit learning variables and their relation with general intelligence and professional success. N = 173 employees from different companies and occupational groups completed…
This study presents an innovative method for predicting energy prices for the Ontario electricity market using artificial intelligence such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and a combination of both. In particular, it presents a methodology to develop optimal bidding curves for a thermal power plant according to the degree of risk aversion based on a given forecasted market-clearing price and the expected system demand. The degree of risk varied according to participant's risk aversion or risk seeking. There is much desire to forecast market-clearing price because it is a relevant variable to find optimal bidding curves. This study also compared the new method with existing methods. Various factors that influence market-clearing prices were also examined with respect to Ontario's electricity market
MARIA Dan Stefan
Full Text Available On the basis of the decision making stands information, as one of the main elements that determine the evolution of our-days society. As a consequence, data analysis tends to become a priority in the activity of an organization for decision making. The di
Keeping Current and Increasing The Effectiveness of the Decision-Making Process and the Interoperability in the Digital Age: Geospatial Intelligence and Geospatial Information Systems' Applications in the Military and Intelligence Fields for the Mexican Navy
Meillon, Salomon C
The birth of the digital era full of new technologies and information systems that increase as time goes by has forced the military to embrace these innovations so that they do not lose effectiveness...
Ong, D; Khaddaj, Souheil; Bashroush, Rabih
Most intelligent systems have some form of \\ud decision making mechanisms built into their \\ud organisations. These normally include a logical \\ud reasoning element into their design. This paper reviews \\ud and compares the different logical reasoning strategies, \\ud and tries to address the accuracy and precision of \\ud decision making by formulating a tolerance to \\ud imprecision view which can be used in conjunction with \\ud the various reasoning strategies.
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it
Keeping Current and Increasing The Effectiveness of the Decision-Making Process and the Interoperability in the Digital Age: Geospatial Intelligence and Geospatial Information Systems’ Applications in the Military and Intelligence Fields for the Mexican Navy
Guide, 3rd ed. (London; Thousand Oaks, Calif: Sage Publications, 1999), 228, http://www.loc.gov/catdir/ toc /fy042/99214121.html; (accessed date 6/25...analysis in the GEOINT context is the Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública, SNSP (National System of Public Security) with the implementation of the...named Sistema de Información Geográfica del Atlas Nacional de Riesgos (GIS national risk atlas) that is under the “direction of research” of that
Křupka, Jiří; Kašparová, Miloslava; Jirava, Pavel; Mandys, Jan; Ferynová, Lenka; Duplinský, Josef
A model of community planning was defined in this paper. The model was designed for the city of Pardubice and works with real questionnaire research data sets in its evaluation phase. Questionnaires were submitted to fill users, providers and sponsors of social services. When creating the model was used Checkland’s soft system methodology. Also soft computing methods and decision trees were used to create the model. The model was implemented in the data mining tool IBM SPSS Modeler 14.
Kert, Serhat Bahadir; Uz, Cigdem; Gecu, Zeynep
This study examined the effectiveness of an electronic performance support system (EPSS) on computer ethics education and the ethical decision-making processes. There were five different phases to this ten month study: (1) Writing computer ethics scenarios, (2) Designing a decision-making framework (3) Developing EPSS software (4) Using EPSS in a…
Kurtines, William M.; And Others
Recent approaches to research on moral development have considered the preeminence of situational factors in moral development and moral behavior. An open systems approach emphasizes the interactive effects of person and situation variables on moral decision-making. The interactive effects of three sets of variables on moral decision-making were…
Pier Luigi Baldi
Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.
Stolowy, Hervé; Baker, Richard; Jeanjean, Thomas; Messner, Martin
In this paper, we use the investment fraud of Bernard Madoff to inquire into the possibilities and limits of an “intelligent accountability” in the context of financial decision making. Drawing primarily upon data related to U.S. Individual investors (interviews and letters), we investigate the role of information and trust in investment decisions. We find that trust played an important role in the Madoff case. We also find that, in face-to-face encounters with the investors, Madoff successfu...
Liao, Pei-Hung; Hsu, Pei-Ti; Chu, William; Chu, Woei-Chyn
This study applied artificial intelligence to help nurses address problems and receive instructions through information technology. Nurses make diagnoses according to professional knowledge, clinical experience, and even instinct. Without comprehensive knowledge and thinking, diagnostic accuracy can be compromised and decisions may be delayed. We used a back-propagation neural network and other tools for data mining and statistical analysis. We further compared the prediction accuracy of the previous methods with an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system and the back-propagation neural network, identifying differences in the questions and in nurse satisfaction levels before and after using the nursing information system. This study investigated the use of artificial intelligence to generate nursing diagnoses. The percentage of agreement between diagnoses suggested by the information system and those made by nurses was as much as 87 percent. When patients are hospitalized, we can calculate the probability of various nursing diagnoses based on certain characteristics. © The Author(s) 2013.
Bennett, Casey C.; Hauser, Kris
In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This serves two potential functions: 1) a simulation environment for expl...
Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan
This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.
Discusses issues connected with developing information systems for competitive intelligence support; defines the elements of an effective competitive information system; and summarizes issues affecting system design and implementation. Highlights include intelligence information; information needs; information sources; decision making; and…
...: sensors, actuators, mechatronic systems and tools in Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) and Microsurgery require nonlinear interpretation and control systems to interface with the computer-assisted decision making process of the surgeon at work...
Toplak, Maggie E; Sorge, Geoff B; Benoit, André; West, Richard F; Stanovich, Keith E
The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been used to study decision-making differences in many different clinical and developmental samples. It has been suggested that IGT performance captures abilities that are separable from cognitive abilities, including executive functions and intelligence. The purpose of the current review was to examine studies that have explicitly examined the relationship between IGT performance and these cognitive abilities. We included 43 studies that reported correlational analyses with IGT performance, including measures of inhibition, working memory, and set-shifting as indices of executive functions, as well as measures of verbal, nonverbal, and full-scale IQ as indices of intelligence. Overall, only a small proportion of the studies reported a statistically significant relationship between IGT performance and these cognitive abilities. The majority of studies reported a non-significant relationship. Of the minority of studies that reported statistically significant effects, effect sizes were, at best, small to modest, and confidence intervals were large, indicating that considerable variability in performance on the IGT is not captured by current measures of executive function and intelligence. These findings highlight the separability between decision-making on the IGT and cognitive abilities, which is consistent with recent conceptualizations that differentiate rationality from intelligence. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
System dynamics was originally founded as a method for modeling and simulating the behavior of industrial systems. In recent years it is increasingly employed as a Group Support System for strategic decision-making groups. The model is constructed in direct interaction with a management team, and
Full Text Available Inventory management in retailers is difficult and complex decision making process which is related to the conflict criteria, also existence of cyclic changes and trend in demand is inevitable in many industries. In this paper, simulation modeling is considered as efficient tool for modeling of retailer multiproduct inventory system. For simulation model optimization, a novel multicriteria and robust surrogate model is designed based on multiple attribute decision making (MADM method, design of experiments (DOE, and principal component analysis (PCA. This approach as a main contribution of this paper, provides a framework for robust multiple criteria decision making under uncertainty.
Balanovskаya, Tetiana Ivanovna; Boretska, Zoreslava Petrovna
Application of fuzzy inference system to increase efficiency of management decision- making in agricultural enterprises. Theoretical and methodological issues, practical recommendations on improvement of management decision-making in agricultural enterprises to increase their competitiveness have been intensified and developed in the article. A simulation example of a quality management system for agricultural products on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic has been proposed...
Ehrgott, Matthias [Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Engineering Science; Naujoks, Boris [Login GmbH, Schwelm (Germany).; Stewart, Theodor J. [Cape Town Univ., Rondebosch (South Africa). Dept. of Statistical Sciences; Wallenius, Jyrki (eds.) [Helsinki School of Economics (Finland). Dept. of Business Technology
In the twenty-first century the sustainability of energy and transportation systems is on the top of the political agenda in many countries around the world and governments are establishing policies towards a sustainable, low emissions energy future. Environmental impacts of human economic activity necessitate the consideration of conflicting goals in decision making processes to develop sustainable systems. Any sustainable development has to reconcile conflicting economic and environmental objectives and criteria. The science of multiple criteria decision making has a lot to offer in addressing this need. Decision making with multiple (conflicting) criteria is the topic of research that is at the heart of the International Society of Multiple Criteria Decision Making. This book is based on selected papers presented at the societies 19th International Conference, held at The University of Auckland, New Zealand, from 7th to 12th January 2008 under the theme ''MCDM for Sustainable Energy and Transportation Systems''. (orig.)
Making decisions in coastal and estuarine management requires a comprehensive understanding of the linkages between environmental, social, and economic systems. SystemSketch is a web-based scoping tool designed to assist resource managers in characterizing their systems, explorin...
Chang, C.; Shih, C.; Hong, M.; Yu, W.; Su, M.; Wang, S.
A prototype of emergency response expert system developed for nuclear power plants, has been fulfilled by Institute of Nuclear Energy Research. Key elements that have been implemented for emergency response include radioactive material dispersion assessment, dynamic transportation evacuation assessment, and meteorological parametric forecasting. A network system consists of five 80386 Personal Computers (PCs) has been installed to perform the system functions above. A further project is still continuing to achieve a more complicated and fanciful computer aid integral emergency response expert system
The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)
Idri, Ali; Kadi, Ilham
Autonomic nervous system (ANS) is the part of the nervous system that is involved in homeostasis of the whole body functions. A malfunction in this system can lead to a cardiovascular dysautonomias. Hence, a set of dynamic tests are adopted in ANS units to diagnose and treat patients with cardiovascular dysautonomias. The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a decision tree based cardiovascular dysautonomias prediction system on a dataset collected from the ANS unit of the Moroccan university hospital Avicenne. We collected a dataset of 263 records from the ANS unit of the Avicenne hospital. This dataset was split into three subsets: training set (123 records), test set (55 records) and validation set (85 records). C4.5 decision tree algorithm was used in this study to develop the prediction system. Moreover, Java Enterprise Edition platform was used to implement a prototype of the developed system which was deployed in the Avicenne ANS unit so as to be clinically validated. The performance of the decision tree-based prediction system was evaluated by means of the error rate criterion. The error rates were measured for each classifier and have achieved an average value of 1.46, 2.24 and 0.89 % in training, test, and validation sets respectively. The results obtained were encouraging but further replicated studies are still needed to be performed in order to confirm the findings of this study.
Dr. Filiz Gürder
Geographic information systems can make important contributions to logistic companies in the following areas: Routing, Optimization and Scheduling, Asset Tracking, Dispatching/Mobile, Territory Optimization and Planning, Site Selection and Optimization, Supply Chain Management, and Selecting the Supplier.
Shershakov, V.; Kosykh, V.; Borodin, R.
Full text: The primary purpose of the DSS RECASS-NT is analysis and prediction of the situation in case of emergency at nuclear facilities (in early phases of an accident) including dose estimation and working out recommendations with regard to countermeasures to protect the public affected by the accident. The system was created to satisfy the following requirements: the system should be ale to operate in two modes: automatic and interactive; the system is based an the 'client-server' principle. Clients can interact with the system both locally and remotely; all calculations in the system are carried out on the server. The client part is responsible for interaction with the system user (including data presentation). Results of model calculations can be displayed during modeling (dynamically) and on completion of calculations; the information base of the system is the operational database, the systemic database and the database with calculation results; the system should enable parallel calculations, among them calculations by different scenarios for the same accident. The automatic mode involves running a specified chain of modules using appropriate scenarios, with a final result generated. The primary purpose of the automatic mode is conducting express-calculations when detailed information about emergency is unavailable. In the interactive mode selection and start-up of a chain of calculation modules, setting parameters for used models, their correction and other actions key for the system operations are performed by a system user (expert). There are no differences between the automatic and interactive modes in terms of storage of calculation results in the system and method of data transmission between the modules within the chain. The telecommunication subsystem (TCS) is designed to provide linkage between programs occurring an different computers and connected both in the local network and the telecommunication system EGASKRO and, possibly, commercial
and infrastructure assessment and on the methodology and process of systemic planning (SP). SP theory development has interchanged with practical application and testing of the SP approach in a large number of cases. The word systemic in SP indicates that complex planning problems and provision of decision support...... in today’s strategic planning needs a focus on what may be addressed as systemic insights in balance with more conventional, systematically-based findings where causal linkages can be modelled and made use of. In practice this means that SP is based on a study-specific combination of hard (quantitative......) and soft (qualitative) operations research (OR) methods; especially the latter have a function as regards knowledge generation that relates to obtaining systemic insights. Furthermore, SP applies a process that drives group-based learning forward. The group should be formed with the different stakeholder...
EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta
Full Text Available Compared with conventional methods of fault diagnosis for power transformers, which have defects such as imperfect encoding and too absolute encoding boundaries, this paper systematically discusses various intelligent approaches applied in fault diagnosis and decision making for large oil-immersed power transformers based on dissolved gas analysis (DGA, including expert system (EPS, artificial neural network (ANN, fuzzy theory, rough sets theory (RST, grey system theory (GST, swarm intelligence (SI algorithms, data mining technology, machine learning (ML, and other intelligent diagnosis tools, and summarizes existing problems and solutions. From this survey, it is found that a single intelligent approach for fault diagnosis can only reflect operation status of the transformer in one particular aspect, causing various degrees of shortcomings that cannot be resolved effectively. Combined with the current research status in this field, the problems that must be addressed in DGA-based transformer fault diagnosis are identified, and the prospects for future development trends and research directions are outlined. This contribution presents a detailed and systematic survey on various intelligent approaches to faults diagnosing and decisions making of the power transformer, in which their merits and demerits are thoroughly investigated, as well as their improvement schemes and future development trends are proposed. Moreover, this paper concludes that a variety of intelligent algorithms should be combined for mutual complementation to form a hybrid fault diagnosis network, such that avoiding these algorithms falling into a local optimum. Moreover, it is necessary to improve the detection instruments so as to acquire reasonable characteristic gas data samples. The research summary, empirical generalization and analysis of predicament in this paper provide some thoughts and suggestions for the research of complex power grid in the new environment, as
Hammer, John M.; Wan, C. Yoon; Vasandani, Vijay
The current research is focused on detection of human error and protection from its consequences. A program for monitoring pilot error by comparing pilot actions to a script was described. It dealt primarily with routine errors (slips) that occurred during checklist activity. The model to which operator actions were compared was a script. Current research is an extension along these two dimensions. The ORS fault detection aid uses a sophisticated device model rather than a script. The newer initiative, the model-based and constraint-based warning system, uses an even more sophisticated device model and is to prevent all types of error, not just slips or bad decision.
Di Domenico, Stefano I; Rodrigo, Achala H; Ayaz, Hasan; Fournier, Marc A; Ruocco, Anthony C
Research on the neural efficiency hypothesis of intelligence (NEH) has revealed that the brains of more intelligent individuals consume less energy when performing easy cognitive tasks but more energy when engaged in difficult mental operations. However, previous studies testing the NEH have relied on cognitive tasks that closely resemble psychometric tests of intelligence, potentially confounding efficiency during intelligence-test performance with neural efficiency per se. The present study sought to provide a novel test of the NEH by examining patterns of prefrontal activity while participants completed an experimental paradigm that is qualitatively distinct from the contents of psychometric tests of intelligence. Specifically, participants completed a personal decision-making task (e.g., which occupation would you prefer, dancer or chemist?) in which they made a series of forced choices according to their subjective preferences. The degree of decisional conflict (i.e., choice difficulty) between the available response options was manipulated on the basis of participants' unique preference ratings for the target stimuli, which were obtained prior to scanning. Evoked oxygenation of the prefrontal cortex was measured using 16-channel continuous-wave functional near-infrared spectroscopy. Consistent with the NEH, intelligence predicted decreased activation of the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) during low-conflict situations and increased activation of the right-IFG during high-conflict situations. This pattern of right-IFG activity among more intelligent individuals was complemented by faster reaction times in high-conflict situations. These results provide new support for the NEH and suggest that the neural efficiency of more intelligent individuals generalizes to the performance of cognitive tasks that are distinct from intelligence tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Ksobiech, C.; Mowrer, F.
The FIVE methodology provides guidance to utilities in performing an examination of potential plant severe accidents caused by fire initiated events. FIVE is oriented toward uncovering limiting plant design or operating characteristics (vulnerabilities) that make certain fire-initiated events more likely than others. It provides a combination of deterministic and probabilistic techniques for examining a power plant's fire probability and protection characteristics. It includes a two phase progressive screening method and a third phase consisting of a plant walkdown/verification process. The FIVE methodology centers on providing assurance of the availability of at least one train of the safe shutdown systems. FIVE has been developed for implementation by plant personnel who are most experienced with their plant's operations, fire hazards and fire protection features. The methodology provides these plant personnel with guidelines to quickly screen the plant down to the most significant locations where vulnerabilities may exist and then identify options to reduce the vulnerabilities
Hester, Patrick T
This expanded second edition of the 2014 textbook features dedicated sections on action and observation, so that the reader can combine the use of the developed theoretical basis with practical guidelines for deployment. It also includes a focus on selection and use of a dedicated modeling paradigm – fuzzy cognitive mapping – to facilitate use of the proposed multi-methodology. The end goal of the text is a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to structuring and assessing complex problems, including a dedicated discussion of thinking, acting, and observing complex problems. The multi-methodology developed is scientifically grounded in systems theory and its accompanying principles, while the process emphasizes the nonlinear nature of all complex problem-solving endeavors. The authors’ clear and consistent chapter structure facilitates the book’s use in the classroom.
Mizoguchi, Hiroyuki; Katahira, Kentaro; Inutsuka, Ayumu; Fukumoto, Kazuya; Nakamura, Akihiro; Wang, Tian; Nagai, Taku; Sato, Jun; Sawada, Makoto; Ohira, Hideki; Yamanaka, Akihiro; Yamada, Kiyofumi
Patients suffering from neuropsychiatric disorders such as substance-related and addictive disorders exhibit altered decision-making patterns, which may be associated with their behavioral abnormalities. However, the neuronal mechanisms underlying such impairments are largely unknown. Using a gambling test, we demonstrated that methamphetamine (METH)-treated rats chose a high-risk/high-reward option more frequently and assigned higher value to high returns than control rats, suggestive of changes in decision-making choice strategy. Immunohistochemical analysis following the gambling test revealed aberrant activation of the insular cortex (INS) and nucleus accumbens in METH-treated animals. Pharmacological studies, together with in vivo microdialysis, showed that the insular neural system played a crucial role in decision-making. Moreover, manipulation of INS activation using designer receptor exclusively activated by designer drug technology resulted in alterations to decision-making. Our findings suggest that the INS is a critical region involved in decision-making and that insular neural dysfunction results in risk-taking behaviors associated with altered decision-making.
PhD. Associate Professor Department of Management & Informatics Mihane Berisha-Namani
Full Text Available In modern conditions of globalisation and development of information technology, information processing activities have come to be seen as essential to successful of businesses and organizations. Information has become essential to make decisions and crucial asset in organisations, whereas information systems is technology required for information processing. The application of information systems technology in business and organisations has opened up new possibilities for running and managing organisations, as well as has improved management decision making. The purpose of this paper is to give an understanding of the role that information systems have in management decision making and to discuss the possibilities how managers of organisations can make best use of information systems. The paper starts with identifying the functions of management and managerial roles and continue with information systems usage in three levels of decision making. It specifically addresses the way how information systems can help managers reduce uncertainty in decision making and includes some important implications of information systems usage for managers. Thus, this study provide a framework of effective use of information systems generally and offers an alternative approach to investigate the impact that information systems technology have in management decision making specifically
Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia; Hassanzadeh, Elmira
Manitoba. The model highlights the spatial tradeoffs across the three provinces and sectoral trade-offs among the differing water uses. These trade-offs represent challenging dilemmas for water management decisions in a complex system. The study reveals the need for a holistic framework of water resources analysis that can dynamically capture the feedback loops among hydrological, social, and administrative/political analysis units to support public discussion of critical water tradeoffs and a consensual water value framework to guide future development decisions.
Bennett, Casey C; Hauser, Kris
In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This framework serves two potential functions: (1) a simulation environment for exploring various healthcare policies, payment methodologies, etc., and (2) the basis for clinical artificial intelligence - an AI that can "think like a doctor". This approach combines Markov decision processes and dynamic decision networks to learn from clinical data and develop complex plans via simulation of alternative sequential decision paths while capturing the sometimes conflicting, sometimes synergistic interactions of various components in the healthcare system. It can operate in partially observable environments (in the case of missing observations or data) by maintaining belief states about patient health status and functions as an online agent that plans and re-plans as actions are performed and new observations are obtained. This framework was evaluated using real patient data from an electronic health record. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach; such an AI framework easily outperforms the current treatment-as-usual (TAU) case-rate/fee-for-service models of healthcare. The cost per unit of outcome change (CPUC) was $189 vs. $497 for AI vs. TAU (where lower is considered optimal) - while at the same time the AI approach could obtain a 30-35% increase in patient outcomes. Tweaking certain AI model parameters could further enhance this advantage, obtaining approximately 50% more improvement (outcome change) for roughly half the costs. Given careful design and problem formulation, an AI simulation framework can approximate optimal
System dynamics was originally founded as a method for modeling and simulating the behavior of industrial systems. In recent years it is increasingly employed as a Group Support System for strategic decision-making groups. The model is constructed in direct interaction with a management team, and the procedure is generally referred to as group model-building. The model can be conceptual (qualitative) or a full-blown (quantitative) computer simulation model. In this article, a case is describe...
Qiu, Lirong; Su, Jie; Ni, Yinmei; Bai, Yang; Zhang, Xuesong; Li, Xiaoli
Decision-making is usually accompanied by metacognition, through which a decision maker monitors uncertainty regarding a decision and may then consequently revise the decision. These metacognitive processes can occur prior to or in the absence of feedback. However, the neural mechanisms of metacognition remain controversial. One theory proposes an independent neural system for metacognition in the prefrontal cortex (PFC); the other, that metacognitive processes coincide and overlap with the systems used for the decision-making process per se. In this study, we devised a novel “decision–redecision” paradigm to investigate the neural metacognitive processes involved in redecision as compared to the initial decision-making process. The participants underwent a perceptual decision-making task and a rule-based decision-making task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We found that the anterior PFC, including the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) and lateral frontopolar cortex (lFPC), were more extensively activated after the initial decision. The dACC activity in redecision positively scaled with decision uncertainty and correlated with individual metacognitive uncertainty monitoring abilities—commonly occurring in both tasks—indicating that the dACC was specifically involved in decision uncertainty monitoring. In contrast, the lFPC activity seen in redecision processing was scaled with decision uncertainty reduction and correlated with individual accuracy changes—positively in the rule-based decision-making task and negatively in the perceptual decision-making task. Our results show that the lFPC was specifically involved in metacognitive control of decision adjustment and was subject to different control demands of the tasks. Therefore, our findings support that a separate neural system in the PFC is essentially involved in metacognition and further, that functions of the PFC in metacognition are dissociable. PMID:29684004
Wang Jiangjiang; Jing Youyin; Zhang Chunfa; Shi Guohua; Zhang Xutao
The decision making for trigeneration systems is a compositive project and it should be evaluated and compared in a multi-criteria analysis method. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model (FMCDM) for trigeneration systems selection and evaluation. The multi-criteria decision-making methods are briefly reviewed combining the general decision-making process. Then the fuzzy set theory, weighting method and the FMCDM model are presented. Finally, several kinds of trigeneration systems, whose dynamical sources are, respectively stirling engine, gas turbine, gas engine and solid oxide fuel cell, are compared and evaluated with a separate generation system. The case for selecting the optimal trigeneration system applied to a residential building is assessed from the technical, economical, environmental and social aspects, and the FMCDM model combining analytic hierarchical process is applied to the trigeneration case to demonstrate the decision-making process and effectiveness of proposed model. The results show that the gas engine plus lithium bromide absorption water heater/chiller unit for the residential building is the best scheme in the five options
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Building an autonomous architecture that uses directed self-learning neuro-fuzzy networks with the aim of developing an intelligent autonomous collision avoidance...
Zheng Qiyan; Zhang Lijun; Huang Weiqi; Chen Lin
For nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring, its main assignment is receiving radiation monitoring data and analyzing them, to accomplish some works such as environment influence evaluation, dose assessment for emergency responder, decision-making analyzing and effectiveness evaluation for emergency actions, etc.. This system is made up of server, communication terminal, data-analyzing terminal, GPRS modules, printer, and so on. The whole system make of a LAN. The system's software is made up of six subsystems: data-analyzing subsystem, reporting subsystem, GIS subsystem, communication subsystem, user-managing subsystem and data-base. (authors)
Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Flanagan, George F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kisner, Roger A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
This technical report was generated as a product of the Supervisory Control for Multi-Modular Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Plants project within the Instrumentation, Control and Human-Machine Interface technology area under the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) Research and Development Program of the US Department of Energy. The report documents the definition of strategies, functional elements, and the structural architecture of a supervisory control system for multi-modular AdvSMR plants. This research activity advances the state of the art by incorporating real-time, probabilistic-based decision-making into the supervisory control system architectural layers through the introduction of a tiered-plant system approach. The report provides background information on the state of the art of automated decision-making, including the description of existing methodologies. It then presents a description of a generalized decision-making framework, upon which the supervisory control decision-making algorithm is based. The probabilistic portion of automated decision-making is demonstrated through a simple hydraulic loop example.
Yue Huiguo; Lin Quanyi; Zhang Jiangang
This article introduces the design features and main functions of The Nuclear and Radiation Emergency Evaluation and Decision Support System. The Ministry of Environmental Protection will construct a complete set of evaluation and decision-making system at the Nuclear Safety Center of Ministry of Environmental Protection to cope with the sudden event. The system will provide a comprehensive technical support for the consequence evaluation and decision-making of anti-terrorism event according to the responsibility of MEP in the sudden event, with the data provided by the MEP's anti-terrorism information platform. (authors)
Full Text Available Moral decision making systems have long been a popular and widely discussed part of computer games; especially in—but not limited to—role-playing games and other games with strong narrative elements. In this article, an attempt will be made to draw a connection between historic and recent concepts of karma and moral decision making systems in digital games, called ‘karma systems’. At the same time, a detailed analysis of one such system (that of Mass Effect 2 will be provided.
This research examined the functions and roles of public library systems in New York State and the services they provide for individual libraries and the public. The dissertation further studied the service decision-making processes at three selected New York State cooperative public library systems. Public library systems have played an important…
Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.
Coroiu, A. M.
We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk
Puffer, Keith A.
Among the plethora of career theories and counseling practices, human emotion continues to be underrepresented. The paucity is evoking discontentment. For many career specialists, a distal role for emotionality has become untenable. This study demonstrated emotional intelligence (EI) associates with familiar constructs within the career…
Kenney, S.J.; Edwards, R.M.
A Learning Automata based intelligent reconfigurable controller has been adapted for use as a reactor power controller to achieve improved reactor temperature performance. The intelligent reconfigurable controller is capable of enforcing either a classical or an optimal reactor power controller based on control performance feedback. Four control performance evaluation measures: dynamically estimated average quadratic temperature error, power, rod reactivity and rod reactivity rate were developed to provide feedback to the control decision component of the intelligent reconfigurable controller. Fuzzy Logic and Neural Network controllers have been studied for inclusion in the bank of controllers that form the intermediate level of an enhanced intelligent reconfigurable reactor power controller (IRRPC). The increased number of alternatives available to the supervisory level of the IRRPC requires enhanced situation awareness. Additional performance measures have been designed and a method for synthesizing them into a single indication of the overall performance of the currently enforced reactor power controller has been conceptualized. Modification of the reward/penalty scheme implemented in the existing IRRPC to increase the quality of the supervisory level decision process has been studied. The logogen model of human memory (Morton, 1969) and individual controller design information could be used to allocate reward to the most appropriate controller. Methods for allocating supervisory level attention were also studied with the goal of maximizing learning rate
Liebrand, Wim B.G.
Within science we primarily obtain knowledge of a specific field by reading the published results of theoretical and empirical studies. It is argued that this approach may lead to a biased and incomplete perspective of a research area. It is proposed to also use methods from Artificial Intelligence
Dawidowicz, Paula M.
The understanding and use of systems has been studied in numerous environments, particularly among leadership and management. However, as yet it is unclear what people at large know about systems thinking, where they gained their knowledge, or how important the role they perceive it to have in their decision making processes. Through a mixed model…
Reyna, Valerie F; Chick, Christina F; Corbin, Jonathan C; Hsia, Andrew N
Intelligence agents make risky decisions routinely, with serious consequences for national security. Although common sense and most theories imply that experienced intelligence professionals should be less prone to irrational inconsistencies than college students, we show the opposite. Moreover, the growth of experience-based intuition predicts this developmental reversal. We presented intelligence agents, college students, and postcollege adults with 30 risky-choice problems in gain and loss frames and then compared the three groups' decisions. The agents not only exhibited larger framing biases than the students, but also were more confident in their decisions. The postcollege adults (who were selected to be similar to the students) occupied an interesting middle ground, being generally as biased as the students (sometimes more biased) but less biased than the agents. An experimental manipulation testing an explanation for these effects, derived from fuzzy-trace theory, made the students look as biased as the agents. These results show that, although framing biases are irrational (because equivalent outcomes are treated differently), they are the ironical output of cognitively advanced mechanisms of meaning making.
Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...
Aim: The aim of the study was the diagnosis of management decision-making in the therapeutic entity, for possible implementation tools in the form of an information system, which could accelerate and support the rational process of making those decisions. In addition, work was to evaluate the role of management decisions and the implications of the information system on the process of rational decision-making in the management entity therapeutic. Material and Methods: The case study method allowed us to show the practical applications and benefits resulting from the application system to support rational decision-making management, in particular in terms of reducing costs and improving the organization of health services offered. The results and conclusions: Presented system generates a database to support rational decision-making process in the field of management, minimize their costs while improving the organization of health services. Ability to use various functions of the system allows for multi-segment analysis, thanks to the specially chosen and condensed information, both in the form of text and graphics over any time horizon. Benefits of the implications of the system is the speed and efficiency of the whole process of treatment, as well as the reduction of administrative tasks of medical staff, which increases the time for the patient.
Kumar, P.; Bauer, P.
This work focuses on a design methodology that aids in design and development of complex engineering systems. This design methodology consists of simulation, optimization and decision making. Within this work a framework is presented in which modelling, multi-objective optimization and multi
desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706
Sankararaman, Shankar; Teubert, Christopher
This paper investigates propsective architectures for decision-making in unmanned aerial systems. When these unmanned vehicles operate in urban environments, there are several sources of uncertainty that affect their behavior, and decision-making algorithms need to be robust to account for these different sources of uncertainty. It is important to account for several risk-factors that affect the flight of these unmanned systems, and facilitate decision-making by taking into consideration these various risk-factors. In addition, there are several technical challenges related to autonomous flight of unmanned aerial systems; these challenges include sensing, obstacle detection, path planning and navigation, trajectory generation and selection, etc. Many of these activities require significant computational power and in many situations, all of these activities need to be performed in real-time. In order to efficiently integrate these activities, it is important to develop a systematic architecture that can facilitate real-time decision-making. Four prospective architectures are discussed in this paper; on one end of the spectrum, the first architecture considers all activities/computations being performed onboard the vehicle whereas on the other end of the spectrum, the fourth and final architecture considers all activities/computations being performed in the cloud, using a new service known as Prognostics as a Service that is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The four different architectures are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are explained and conclusions are presented.
Monitoring and decision-making together are very well characterizing the role of the human operator in highly automated systems. In this report, the analysis of human monitoring and decision-making behavior as well as its modeling are described. The goal is to present a survey. 'Classic' and optimal control theoretic monitoring models are dealt with. The relationship between attention allocation and eye movements is discussed. As an example for applications, the evaluation of predictor displays by means of the optimal control model is explained. Fault detection in continuous signals and decision-making behavior of the human operator in fault diagnosis during different operation and maintenance situations are illustrated. The computer-aided decision-making is considered as a queueing problem. It is shown to what extent computer-aiding may be based on the state of human activity as measured by psychophysiological quantities. Finally, management information systems for different application areas are mentioned. As an appendix, the report includes an English-written paper in which the possibilities of mathematical modeling of human behavior in complex man-machine systems are critically assessed. (orig.) 891 GL/orig. 892 MKO [de
Full Text Available Abstract Where unethical business decision-making arises from failures of ethical perception, there is an important role for ethical training and decision-making tools. These may help business people to consider all relevant issues when assessing the ethical status of potential decisions. Ethical training programmes give business people a basic understanding of the principles which underlie ethical judgements and equip them with many of the necessary skills for dealing with the ethical dilemmas which they face in their jobs. Similarly, ethical decision-making tools may guide managers through the various ethical considerations which are relevant to business decision-making and help them to develop their ethical-perceptual skills. Furthermore, by establishing and reinforcing good ethical decision-making practices, training programmes and decision-making tools may also reduce the incidence of self-consciously unethical decision-making. A new approach to improving the ethical quality of business decision-making by the use of computerized business ethics expert systems is proposed. These systems have the potential to guide business people through a process of ethical evaluation while simultaneously fulfilling an educational role, thus providing many of the benefits of both training programmes and decision-making tools. While the prospect of a computer system which could simply make ethical judgements for business people is both unrealistic and undesirable, a system which leads human decision-makers through a structured assessment process has the potential for genuine benefits. Keywords: Expert Systems, Ethical Decision Making
Ballantine, R. Malcolm
Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are computer-based decision aids to use when making decisions which are partially amenable to rational decision-making procedures but contain elements where intuitive judgment is an essential component. In such situations, DSSs are used to improve the quality of decision-making. The DSS approach is based on Simon's…
Full Text Available This paper studied the decision-making process to use an integrated smartcard ticketing system by Bangkok metropolitan transit commuters. A second-order Confirmatory Factor Analysis using LISREL 9.10 was undertaken on Bangkok commuter's decision-making process on the use of an integrated smartcard system. The sample consisted of 300 Bangkok commuters obtained by accidental sampling using questionnaires with a 5-point Likert scale. The tools in the research questionnaires used scale estimation that achieved a confidence value of 0.84. The research instruments used rating scales measuring information search, alternative choices, and use decision on the 15 variables in the decision-making process which had factor loadings between 0.49 and 0.89 weight elements when sorted in descending order and overall had a high level. Use decision, alternative choices and information search had a factor of 0.89, 0.65 and 0.49, respectively. There was a good fit of the decision-making model to the empirical data (chi-square = 34.55, probability (p = 0.94, df = 49, RMSEA = 0.00, GFI = 0.98, AGFI = 0.96, SRMR = 0.04.
Recent legislation concerning personnel security has vastly increased the responsibility and accountability of the security manager. Access authorization, fitness for duty, and personnel security access programs require decisions regarding an individual's trustworthiness and reliability based on the findings of a background investigation. While these guidelines provide significant data and are useful as a tool, limited resources are available to the adjudicator of derogatory information on what is and is not acceptable in terms of granting access to sensitive areas of nuclear plants. The reason why one individual is deemed unacceptable and the next acceptable may be questioned and cause discriminatory accusations. This paper is continuation of discussion on workforce reliability, focusing on the use of artificial intelligence to support the decisions of a security manager. With this support, the benefit of previous decisions helps ensure consistent adjudication of background investigations
D. P. Oleynikov
Full Text Available Purpose. The problem qualitative assessment of technologies and innovations, which cannot be solved without modern methods and decision support systems, is currently particularly relevant. The reason for this is the increasingly increasing amount of heterogeneous information, which should take into account the decision maker. Reduction of the allowable period of decision-making also has a signifi cant impact on this process. These reasons are refl ected in the problems of network-centric warfare, nuclear management, forecasting, and conceptual design. It actualizes the problem of the synthesis of new methods of decision-making that will effectively solve the problem of choice of alternatives in those problem areas where the application of existing methods of decision-making is unfounded or inadmissible. The complexity of the process of creation of new decision-making methods caused by the high degree of utilization of cognitive processes. In accordance with the system-wide development trends the designer in the process of synthesis of the decision-makings should take a system (or group of systems which implements certain cognitive operations. The first step towards the creation of such a group of systems is the development of methodology of the system synthesis of decision-makings.Materials and methods. The scope of research are approaches to the synthesis of systems, and in particular – the synthesis of decision-makings. On the basis of multidimensional analysis and generalization of approach the methodology was developed, which consists of the main stages - goal setting, goal achievement and variations of the target system. Within each of the stages a wide variation of operations is possible to be used, which applied depending on the available data, obtained from the analysis of the subject area. With the use of the methodology obtained a number ofdecision-making methods, and their creation was carried out without
Full Text Available Due to the complex parameters of a solar power system, the designer not only must think about the load demand but also needs to consider the price, weight, and annual power generating capacity (APGC and maximum power of the solar system. It is an important task to find the optimal solar power system with many parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a novel decision-making method based on the extension theory; we call it extension decision-making method (EDMM. Using the EDMM can make it quick to select the optimal solar power system. The paper proposed this method not only to provide a useful estimated tool for the solar system engineers but also to supply the important reference with the installation of solar systems to the consumer.
Fatahi, Zahra; Haghparast, Abbas
Effort-based decision making addresses how we make an action choice based on an integration of action and goal values. The nucleus accumbens (NAc) is implicated in allowing an animal to overcome effort constraints to obtain greater benefits, and it has been previously shown that cannabis derivatives may affect such processes. Therefore, in this study, we intend to evaluate the involvement of the cannabinoid system in the entire NAc on effort-based decision making. Rats were trained in a T-maze cost-benefit decision making the task in which they could choose either to climb a barrier to obtain a large reward in one arm or run into the other arm without a barrier to obtaining a small reward. Following training, the animals were bilaterally implanted with guide cannulae in the NAc. On test day, rats received cannabinoid agonist (Win 55,212-2; 2, 10 and 50μM) and/or antagonist (AM251; 45μM), afterward percentage of large reward choice and latency of reward attainment were investigated. Results revealed that the administration of cannabinoid agonist led to decrease of large reward choice percentage such that the animals preferred to receive a small reward with low effort instead of receiving a large reward with high effort. The administration of antagonist solely did not affect effort-based decision making, but did attenuate the Win 55,212-2-induced impairments in effort allocation. In agonist-treated animals, the latency of reward collection increased. Moreover, when the effort was equated on both arms, the animals returned to choosing large reward showing that obtained results were not caused by spatial memory impairment. Our finding suggested that activation of the cannabinoid system in the NAc impaired effort-based decision making and led to rats were less willing to invest the physical effort to gain large reward. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Georgiou, Polymnia; Zanos, Panos; Bhat, Shambhu; Tracy, J Kathleen; Merchenthaler, Istvan J; McCarthy, Margaret M; Gould, Todd D
Maladaptive decision making is associated with several neuropsychiatric disorders, including problem gambling and suicidal behavior. The prevalence of these disorders is higher in men vs women, suggesting gender-dependent regulation of their pathophysiology underpinnings. We assessed sex differences in decision making using the rat version of the Iowa gambling task. Female rats identified the most optimal choice from session 1, whereas male rats from session 5. Male, but not female rats, progressively improved their advantageous option responding and surpassed females. Estrus cycle phase did not affect decision making. To test whether pharmacological manipulations targeting the dopaminergic and stress systems affect decision making in a sex-dependent manner, male and female rats received injections of a dopamine D 2 receptor (D 2 R) antagonist (eticlopride), D 2 R agonist (quinpirole), corticotropin-releasing factor 1 (CRF 1 ) antagonist (antalarmin), and α 2 -adrenergic receptor antagonist (yohimbine; used as a pharmacological stressor). Alterations in mRNA levels of D 2 R and CRF 1 were also assessed. Eticlopride decreased advantageous responding in male, but not female rats, whereas quinpirole decreased advantageous responding specifically in females. Yohimbine dose-dependently decreased advantageous responding in female rats, whereas decreased advantageous responding was only observed at higher doses in males. Antalarmin increased optimal choice responding only in female rats. Higher Drd2 and Crhr1 expression in the amygdala were observed in female vs male rats. Higher amygdalar Crhr1 expression was negatively correlated with advantageous responding specifically in females. This study demonstrates the relevance of dopaminergic- and stress-dependent sex differences to maladaptive decision making.
Morlock, L L; Alexander, J A
This study utilizes data from a national survey of 159 multihospital systems in order to describe the types of governance structures currently being utilized, and to compare the policy making process for various types of decisions in systems with different approaches to governance. Survey results indicate that multihospital systems most often use one of three governance models. Forty-one percent of the systems (including 33% of system hospitals) use a parent holding company model in which there is a system-wide corporate governing board and separate governing boards for each member hospital. Twenty-two percent of systems in the sample (but 47% of all system hospitals) utilize what we have termed a modified parent holding company model in which there is one system-wide governing board, but advisory boards are substituted for governing boards at the local hospital level. Twenty-three percent of the sampled systems (including 11% of system hospitals) use a corporate model in which there is one system-wide governing board but no other governing or advisory boards at either the divisional, regional or local hospital levels. A comparison of systems using these three governance approaches found significant variation in terms of system size, ownership and the geographic proximity of member hospitals. In order to examine the relationship between alternative approaches to governance and patterns of decision-making, the three model types were compared with respect to the percentages of systems reporting that local boards, corporate management and/or system-wide corporate boards have responsibility for decision-making in a number of specific issue areas. Study results indicate that, regardless of model type, corporate boards are most likely to have responsibility for decisions regarding the transfer, pledging and sale of assets; the formation of new companies; purchase of assets greater than $100,000; changes in hospital bylaws; and the appointment of local board members. In
Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren
Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...
Our main work in this study is to make a detailed discussion on the multi-criteria decision making with incomplete information systems. At first, an algorithm is constructed to retrieve the missing criteria values by taking into account the local similarity as well as global similarity of each two alternatives. Then, in view of different evaluation information representation, we establish different making methods for the corresponding completed information system. By transforming interval-va...
Chambers, David W
A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.
When used as a tool for safety decision making, Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is as effective as it realistically characterizes the overall frequency and consequences of various types of system and component failures. If significant support system failure events are omitted from consideration, the PSA process omits the characterization of possible unique contributors to core damage risk, possibly underestimates the frequency of core damage, and reduces the future utility of the PSA as a decision making tool for the omitted support system. This paper is based on a review of several recent US PSA studies and the author's participation in several International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sponsored peer reviews. 21 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab
V. V. Serbin
Full Text Available Subject of Research. Decision-making model is offered for informational and educational systems. The study of multi-criteria model is carried out taking into account knowledge, reaction and doubt. Method. The model of material proficiency by the user is based on identification of the personal characteristics when operating with the system. As a result of personal characteristics tracking in the system, an image is formed for each user that can be used for identifying his state: knowledge level, proportion of error, handwriting information, etc. During registration the user is passing an input test. Multi-criteria test results are automatically stored in the user's personal database (agent matrix and accounted for psychological comfort, formation of the next system content, management of knowledge levels, decision-making when working with the system. The proposed method gives a more clear and "transparent situational picture" for objective decision-making. Main Results. Implementation of multi-criteria decision-making model contributes to the quality of distance education. Also, the method makes it possible to reduce the probability of guessing the correct answer, thus increases the objectivity of knowledge level evaluation in diagnostic systems for management of learning process based on remote technologies. Practical Relevance. Obtained theoretical results of the work are used in training systems on the basis of multi-criteria decision models. Thus, the proposed model leads to an increase in the average score of about 0.3-0.4 points and reduces the training time in 1.5 to 2.0 times.
Penner, Marsha R; Mizumori, Sheri J Y
The ability to make adaptive decisions during goal-directed navigation is a fundamental and highly evolved behavior that requires continual coordination of perceptions, learning and memory processes, and the planning of behaviors. Here, a neurobiological account for such coordination is provided by integrating current literatures on spatial context analysis and decision-making. This integration includes discussions of our current understanding of the role of the hippocampal system in experience-dependent navigation, how hippocampal information comes to impact midbrain and striatal decision making systems, and finally the role of the striatum in the implementation of behaviors based on recent decisions. These discussions extend across cellular to neural systems levels of analysis. Not only are key findings described, but also fundamental organizing principles within and across neural systems, as well as between neural systems functions and behavior, are emphasized. It is suggested that studying decision making during goal-directed navigation is a powerful model for studying interactive brain systems and their mediation of complex behaviors. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Full Text Available Suitable selection of the emergency alternatives is a critical issue in emergency response system of Unattended Train Operation (UTO metro system of China. However, there is no available method for dispatcher group in Operating Control Center (OCC to evaluate the decision under emergency situation. It was found that the emergency decision making in UTO metro system is relative with the preferences and the importance of multi-dispatcher in emergency. Regarding these factors, this paper presents a hybrid method to determinate the priority weights of emergency alternatives, which aggregates the preference matrix by constructing the emergency response task model based on the Weighted Ordered Weighted Averaging (WOWA operator. This calculation approach derives the importance weights depending on the dispatcher emergency tasks and integrates it into the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA operator weights based on a fuzzy membership relation. A case from train fire is given to demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of the proposed methods for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Making (GMCDM in emergency management of UTO metro system. The innovation of this research is paving the way for a systematic emergency decision-making solution which connects the automatic metro emergency response system with the GMCDM theory.
Nené, Nuno R.; Zaikin, Alexey
Our work draws special attention to the importance of the effects of time-dependent parameters on decision making in bistable systems. Here, we extend previous studies of the mechanism known as speed-dependent cellular decision making in genetic circuits by performing an analytical treatment of the canonical supercritical pitchfork bifurcation problem with an additional time-dependent asymmetry and control parameter. This model has an analogous behavior to the genetic switch. In the presence of transient asymmetries and fluctuations, slow passage through the critical region in both systems increases substantially the probability of specific decision outcomes. We also study the relevance for attractor selection of reaching maximum values for the external asymmetry before and after the critical region. Overall, maximum asymmetries should be reached at an instant where the position of the critical point allows for compensation of the detrimental effects of noise in retaining memory of the transient asymmetries.
KAMIŞLI ÖZTÜRK, Zehra
Today, there's a wide variety of open and distance learning (ODL) systems around the world. Herein, for lifelong learning how to select an ODL program becomes a critic question for a learner who wants to extent abilities on his/her career path. This is a complex decision problem with interdependent criteria. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria decision making methodology that reflects these interdependencies. Within &...
Hsu, Ming; Bhatt, Meghana; Adolphs, Ralph; Tranel, Daniel; Camerer, Colin F.
Much is known about how people make decisions under varying levels of probability (risk). Less is known about the neural basis of decision-making when probabilities are uncertain because of missing information (ambiguity). In decision theory, ambiguity about probabilities should not affect choices. Using functional brain imaging, we show that the level of ambiguity in choices correlates positively with activation in the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex, and negatively with a striatal system....
This book provides essential background knowledge on the development of model-based real-world solutions in the field of control and decision making for water systems. It presents system engineering methods for modelling surface water and groundwater resources as well as water transportation systems (rivers, channels and pipelines). The models in turn provide information on both the water quantity (flow rates, water levels) of surface water and groundwater and on water quality. In addition, methods for modelling and predicting water demand are described. Sample applications of the models are presented, such as a water allocation decision support system for semi-arid regions, a multiple-criteria control model for run-of-river hydropower plants, and a supply network simulation for public services.
Donati, Maria Anna; Panno, Angelo; Chiesi, Francesca; Primi, Caterina
This study tested the mediating role of probabilistic reasoning ability in the relationship between fluid intelligence and advantageous decision making among adolescents in explicit situations of risk--that is, in contexts in which information on the choice options (gains, losses, and probabilities) were explicitly presented at the beginning of the task. Participants were 282 adolescents attending high school (77% males, mean age = 17.3 years). We first measured fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning ability. Then, to measure decision making under explicit conditions of risk, participants performed the Game of Dice Task, in which they have to decide among different alternatives that are explicitly linked to a specific amount of gain or loss and have obvious winning probabilities that are stable over time. Analyses showed a significant positive indirect effect of fluid intelligence on advantageous decision making through probabilistic reasoning ability that acted as a mediator. Specifically, fluid intelligence may enhance ability to reason in probabilistic terms, which in turn increases the likelihood of advantageous choices when adolescents are confronted with an explicit decisional context. Findings show that in experimental paradigm settings, adolescents are able to make advantageous decisions using cognitive abilities when faced with decisions under explicit risky conditions. This study suggests that interventions designed to promote probabilistic reasoning, for example by incrementing the mathematical prerequisites necessary to reason in probabilistic terms, may have a positive effect on adolescents' decision-making abilities.
Full Text Available Information system (IS project selection is of critical importance to every organization in dynamic competing environment. The aim of this paper is to develop a hybrid multicriteria group decision making approach based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory for IS project selection. The decision makers’ assessment information can be expressed in the form of real numbers, interval-valued numbers, linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs. All these evaluation pieces of information can be transformed to the form of IFNs. Intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (IFWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group opinion. Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to obtain the entropy weights of the criteria. TOPSIS method combined with intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed to select appropriate IS project in group decision making environment. Finally, a numerical example for information system projects selection is given to illustrate application of hybrid multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method.
Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper focuses on the creation of a predictive computer-assisted decision making system for traumatic injury using machine learning algorithms. Trauma experts must make several difficult decisions based on a large number of patient attributes, usually in a short period of time. The aim is to compare the existing machine learning methods available for medical informatics, and develop reliable, rule-based computer-assisted decision-making systems that provide recommendations for the course of treatment for new patients, based on previously seen cases in trauma databases. Datasets of traumatic brain injury (TBI patients are used to train and test the decision making algorithm. The work is also applicable to patients with traumatic pelvic injuries. Methods Decision-making rules are created by processing patterns discovered in the datasets, using machine learning techniques. More specifically, CART and C4.5 are used, as they provide grammatical expressions of knowledge extracted by applying logical operations to the available features. The resulting rule sets are tested against other machine learning methods, including AdaBoost and SVM. The rule creation algorithm is applied to multiple datasets, both with and without prior filtering to discover significant variables. This filtering is performed via logistic regression prior to the rule discovery process. Results For survival prediction using all variables, CART outperformed the other machine learning methods. When using only significant variables, neural networks performed best. A reliable rule-base was generated using combined C4.5/CART. The average predictive rule performance was 82% when using all variables, and approximately 84% when using significant variables only. The average performance of the combined C4.5 and CART system using significant variables was 89.7% in predicting the exact outcome (home or rehabilitation, and 93.1% in predicting the ICU length of stay for
Bearman, Chris; Miller, Ronald c.; Orasanu, Judith M.
Introduction: NextGen technologies promise to provide considerable benefits in terms of enhancing operations and improving safety. However, there needs to be a thorough human factors evaluation of the way these systems will change the way in which pilot and controllers share information. The likely impact of these new technologies on pilot/controller coordinated decision making is considered in this paper using the "operational, informational and evaluative disconnect" framework. Method: Five participant focus groups were held. Participants were four experts in human factors, between x and x research students and a technical expert. The participant focus group evaluated five key NextGen technologies to identify issues that made different disconnects more or less likely. Results: Issues that were identified were: Decision Making will not necessarily improve because pilots and controllers possess the same information; Having a common information source does not mean pilots and controllers are looking at the same information; High levels of automation may lead to disconnects between the technology and pilots/controllers; Common information sources may become the definitive source for information; Overconfidence in the automation may lead to situations where appropriate breakdowns are not initiated. Discussion: The issues that were identified lead to recommendations that need to be considered in the development of NextGen technologies. The current state of development of these technologies provides a good opportunity to utilize recommendations at an early stage so that NextGen technologies do not lead to difficulties in resolving breakdowns in coordinated decision making.
Pavelescu, M.; Szakats, A.; Ursu, I.
The theory of risk preference as applied to decision making in the case of a nuclear power system consisting of PHWRs and PWRs integrated with LMFBRs, is examined. An econometric model of the system offers the cost price of annual energy generated by the system at the end of a given time interval for every possible state of any of nine development alternatives. Optimal development alternatives of the nuclear system in three cases: risk-preference, risk-indifference and risk-aversion are obtained and the solution in the last case is discussed in detail. (U.K.)
Stein, Mari-Klara; Newell, Sue; Galliers, Robert D.
Classification systems are foundational in many standardized software tools. This digitization of classification systems gives them a new ‘materiality’ that, jointly with the social practices of information producers/consumers, has significant consequences on the representational quality of such ...... and the foundational role of representational quality in understanding the success and consequences of data-driven decision-making.......-narration and meta-narration), and three different information production/consumption situations. We contribute to the relational theorization of representational quality and extend classification systems research by drawing explicit attention to the importance of ‘materialization’ of classification systems...
Kitamura, Masaharu; Yoshikawa, Shinji; Hasegawa, Makoto
A series of technical surveys and studies are described in this report to examine and identify technical requirements to be posed on knowledge base and instrumentation system as the fundamental in high reliability computational decision making in operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants. Monitoring and diagnosis are focused as the important tasks among the operation/maintenance-related tasks. A concrete monitoring and diagnosis system configuration has been proposed consisting of distributed symptom database and of on-demand measurement subsystem. An prototype of the proposed system configuration has been successfully verified. (author)
O'Hara, Rachel; Johnson, Maxine; Siriwardena, A Niroshan; Weyman, Andrew; Turner, Janette; Shaw, Deborah; Mortimer, Peter; Newman, Chris; Hirst, Enid; Storey, Matthew; Mason, Suzanne; Quinn, Tom; Shewan, Jane
Paramedics routinely make critical decisions about the most appropriate care to deliver in a complex system characterized by significant variation in patient case-mix, care pathways and linked service providers. There has been little research carried out in the ambulance service to identify areas of risk associated with decisions about patient care. The aim of this study was to explore systemic influences on decision making by paramedics relating to care transitions to identify potential risk factors. An exploratory multi-method qualitative study was conducted in three English National Health Service (NHS) Ambulance Service Trusts, focusing on decision making by paramedic and specialist paramedic staff. Researchers observed 57 staff across 34 shifts. Ten staff completed digital diaries and three focus groups were conducted with 21 staff. Nine types of decision were identified, ranging from emergency department conveyance and specialist emergency pathways to non-conveyance. Seven overarching systemic influences and risk factors potentially influencing decision making were identified: demand; performance priorities; access to care options; risk tolerance; training and development; communication and feedback and resources. Use of multiple methods provided a consistent picture of key systemic influences and potential risk factors. The study highlighted the increased complexity of paramedic decisions and multi-level system influences that may exacerbate risk. The findings have implications at the level of individual NHS Ambulance Service Trusts (e.g. ensuring an appropriately skilled workforce to manage diverse patient needs and reduce emergency department conveyance) and at the wider prehospital emergency care system level (e.g. ensuring access to appropriate patient care options as alternatives to the emergency department). © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.
Tagai, Erin K; Miller, Suzanne M; Kutikov, Alexander; Diefenbach, Michael A; Gor, Ronak A; Al-Saleem, Tahseen; Chen, David Y T; Fleszar, Sara; Roy, Gem
The Gleason scoring system is a key component of a prostate cancer diagnosis, since it indicates disease aggressiveness. It also serves as a risk communication tool that facilitates shared treatment decision-making. However, the system is highly complex and therefore difficult to communicate: factors which have been shown to undermine well-informed and high-quality shared treatment decision-making. To systematically explore prostate cancer patients' understanding of the Gleason scoring system (GSS), we assessed knowledge and perceived importance among men who had completed treatment (N = 50). Patients were administered a survey that assessed patient knowledge and patients' perceived importance of the GSS, as well as demographics, medical factors (e.g., Gleason score at diagnosis), and health literacy. Bivariate analyses were conducted to identify associations with patient knowledge and perceived importance of the GSS. The sample was generally well-educated (48% with a bachelor's degree or higher) and health literate (M = 12.9, SD = 2.2, range = 3-15). Despite this, patient knowledge of the GSS was low (M = 1.8, SD = 1.4, range = 1-4). Patients' understanding of the importance of the GSS was moderate (M = 2.8, SD = 1.0, range = 0-4) and was positively associated with GSS knowledge (p decision-making. Future studies are needed to explore the potential utility of a simplified Gleason grading system and improved patient-provider communication.
Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh
Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.
Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri
Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in
Alkozei, Anna; Smith, Ryan; Demers, Lauren A; Weber, Mareen; Berryhill, Sarah M; Killgore, William D S
Higher levels of emotional intelligence have been associated with better inter and intrapersonal functioning. In the present study, 59 healthy men and women were randomized into either a three-week online training program targeted to improve emotional intelligence ( n = 29), or a placebo control training program targeted to improve awareness of nonemotional aspects of the environment ( n = 30). Compared to placebo, participants in the emotional intelligence training group showed increased performance on the total emotional intelligence score of the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, a performance measure of emotional intelligence, as well as subscales of perceiving emotions and facilitating thought. Moreover, after emotional intelligence training, but not after placebo training, individuals displayed the ability to arrive at optimal performance faster (i.e., they showed a faster learning rate) during an emotion-guided decision-making task (i.e., the Iowa Gambling Task). More specifically, although both groups showed similar performance at the start of the Iowa Gambling Task from pre- to posttraining, the participants in the emotional intelligence training group learned to choose more advantageous than disadvantageous decks than those in the placebo training group by the time they reached the "hunch" period of the task (i.e., the point in the task when implicit task learning is thought to have occurred). Greater total improvements in performance on the Iowa Gambling Task from pre- to posttraining in the emotional intelligence training group were also positively correlated with pre- to posttraining changes in Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test scores, in particular with changes in the ability to perceive emotions. The present study provides preliminary evidence that emotional intelligence can be trained with the help of an online training program targeted at adults; it also suggests that changes in emotional intelligence, as a
Chen Dengke; Zhang Dafa; Jiang Wei; Chen Yonghong
Emergency decision-making to Marine Pressurized-Water Reactor (MPWR) was severely restricted by the complex environment. To enhance the emergency decision-making ability of MPWR, reducing the effect of emergencies, an emergency Decision-making Support System (DSS) which based on Multi-agent System (MAS) was presented. In the system, the HLA/RTI was used as the support environment, and the structure and the Control Agent (SCA), Analyse Agent (AA), Countermeasure Agent (CA), Evaluation Agent (EVA) and Environment Agent (ENA) were designed. The MAS were with the characteristics of autonomy, reactivity and initiative, which were fully used in the system to make effective decision for emergencies. (authors)
Martin, L. B; Bandali, F; Lamoureux, T
.... As part of the JCDS 21 TD work plan, it is necessary to gain an understanding of current scientific research on human decision making, individual differences, and the potential to identify consistent...
Heath, Christopher J; Phillips, Benjamin U; Bussey, Timothy J; Saksida, Lisa M
This unit is designed to facilitate implementation of the fixed and progressive ratio paradigms and the effort-related choice task in the rodent touchscreen apparatus to permit direct measurement of motivation and reward-related decision making in this equipment. These protocols have been optimized for use in the mouse and reliably yield stable performance levels that can be enhanced or suppressed by systemic pharmacological manipulation. Instructions are also provided for the adjustment of task parameters to permit use in mouse models of neurodegenerative disease. These tasks expand the utility of the rodent touchscreen apparatus beyond the currently available battery of cognitive assessment paradigms. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Bompard, Ettore; Han, Bei; Masera, Marcelo; Pons, Enrico
This chapter presents an approach to the analysis of Smart Grids based on a multi-layer representation of their technical, cyber, social and decision-making aspects, as well as the related environmental constraints. In the Smart Grid paradigm, self-interested active customers (prosumers), system operators and market players interact among themselves making use of an extensive cyber infrastructure. In addition, policy decision makers define regulations, incentives and constraints to drive the behavior of the competing operators and prosumers, with the objective of ensuring the global desired performance (e.g. system stability, fair prices). For these reasons, the policy decision making is more complicated than in traditional power systems, and needs proper modeling and simulation tools for assessing "in vitro" and ex-ante the possible impacts of the decisions assumed. In this chapter, we consider the smart grids as multi-layered interacting complex systems. The intricacy of the framework, characterized by several interacting layers, cannot be captured by closed-form mathematical models. Therefore, a new approach using Multi Agent Simulation is described. With case studies we provide some indications about how to develop agent-based simulation tools presenting some preliminary examples.
Gershman, Samuel J; Markman, Arthur B; Otto, A Ross
Recent computational theories of decision making in humans and animals have portrayed 2 systems locked in a battle for control of behavior. One system--variously termed model-free or habitual--favors actions that have previously led to reward, whereas a second--called the model-based or goal-directed system--favors actions that causally lead to reward according to the agent's internal model of the environment. Some evidence suggests that control can be shifted between these systems using neural or behavioral manipulations, but other evidence suggests that the systems are more intertwined than a competitive account would imply. In 4 behavioral experiments, using a retrospective revaluation design and a cognitive load manipulation, we show that human decisions are more consistent with a cooperative architecture in which the model-free system controls behavior, whereas the model-based system trains the model-free system by replaying and simulating experience.
Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Khan, Asifullah
Development of an accurate and reliable intelligent decision-making method for the construction of cancer diagnosis system is one of the fast growing research areas of health sciences. Such decision-making system can provide adequate information for cancer diagnosis and drug discovery. Descriptors derived from physicochemical properties of protein sequences are very useful for classifying cancerous proteins. Recently, several interesting research studies have been reported on breast cancer classification. To this end, we propose the exploitation of the physicochemical properties of amino acids in protein primary sequences such as hydrophobicity (Hd) and hydrophilicity (Hb) for breast cancer classification. Hd and Hb properties of amino acids, in recent literature, are reported to be quite effective in characterizing the constituent amino acids and are used to study protein foldings, interactions, structures, and sequence-order effects. Especially, using these physicochemical properties, we observed that proline, serine, tyrosine, cysteine, arginine, and asparagine amino acids offer high discrimination between cancerous and healthy proteins. In addition, unlike traditional ensemble classification approaches, the proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method was developed by combining the decision spaces of a specific classifier trained on different feature spaces. The different feature spaces used were amino acid composition, split amino acid composition, and pseudo amino acid composition. Consequently, we have exploited different feature spaces using Hd and Hb properties of amino acids to develop an accurate method for classification of cancerous protein sequences. We developed ensemble classifiers using diverse learning algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) trained on different feature spaces. We observed that ensemble-RF, in case of cancer classification, performed better than ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN. Our
Ayyub, Bilal M
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision-making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision-making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit-cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Full Text Available An open, standardized data management and related service infrastructure is a crucial requirement for a seamless storage and exchange of data and information within research projects, for the dissemination of project results and for their application in decision making processes. However, typical project databases often refer to only one research project and are limited to specific purposes. Once implemented, those systems are often not further maintained and updated, rendering the stored information useless once the system stops operating. The River Basin Information System (RBIS presented here is designed to fit not only the requirements of one research project, but focuses on generic functions, extensibility and standards compliance typically found in interdisciplinary environmental research. Developed throughout more than 10 years of research cooperation worldwide, RBIS is designed to manage different types of environmental data with and without spatial context together with a rich set of metadata. Beside data management and storage, RBIS provides functions for the visualization, linking, analysis and processing of different types of data to support research, decision making, result dissemination and information discovery for all kinds of users. The focus of this paper is on the description of the technical implementation and the presentation of functions. This will be complemented by an overview of example applications and experiences during RBIS development and operation.
Danilova, Olga; Semenova, Zinaida
The objective of this study is a detailed analysis of physical protection systems development for information resources. The optimization theory and decision-making mathematical apparatus is used to formulate correctly and create an algorithm of selection procedure for security systems optimal configuration considering the location of the secured object’s access point and zones. The result of this study is a software implementation scheme of decision-making system for optimal placement of the physical access control system’s elements.
Vinkenburg, Claartje J
In this contribution to the Journal of Applied Behavioral Science Special Issue on Understanding Diversity Dynamics in Systems: Social Equality as an Organization Change Issue, I develop and describe design specifications for systemic diversity interventions in upward mobility career systems, aimed at optimizing decision making through mitigating bias by engaging gatekeepers. These interventions address the paradox of meritocracy that underlies the surprising lack of diversity at the top of the career pyramid in these systems. I ground the design specifications in the limited empirical evidence on "what works" in systemic interventions. Specifically, I describe examples from interventions in academic settings, including a bias literacy program, participatory modeling, and participant observation. The design specifications, paired with inspirational examples of successful interventions, should assist diversity officers and consultants in designing and implementing interventions to promote the advancement to and representation of nondominant group members at the top of the organizational hierarchy.
Martín Alejandro Iribarnegaray
Full Text Available We explore the connections between the concepts of governance and sustainability and discuss their possible roles in water and sanitation management systems (WSMS. We see governance as a decision-making process that drives the relationship between social institutions and the public affairs of a given society. We understand sustainability as a combination of spatial, temporal, and personal aspects, and we argue that this definition is more comprehensive than the traditional triple bottom line of economy, environment, and society. We combined these two concepts into a new conceptual framework of “governance for sustainability” that is theoretically sound and arguably appropriate to understand local WSMS. To illustrate this framework, we developed and estimated a Sustainable Water Governance Index (SWGI for the city of Salta, Argentina. This aggregated index was calculated with data from literature, information from the city’s water company and other local institutions, field visits, and interviews. The SWGI for Salta obtained an overall score of 49 on a 0–100 scale, which fell into the “danger” range. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the method and conclude that aggregated indices such as the SWGI, complemented with contextual information, can be a helpful decision-making tool to promote more sustainable WSMS.
Full Text Available The authors are investigating whether Web-based Group Support System (GSS) tools can support and enhance procedural fairness in administrative decision making in South Africa. They report here on work that emanates from a masters dissertation...
This book provides an overview of recent research developments in the automation and control of robotic systems that collaborate with humans. A measure of human collaboration being necessary for the optimal operation of any robotic system, the contributors exploit a broad selection of such systems to demonstrate the importance of the subject, particularly where the environment is prone to uncertainty or complexity. They show how such human strengths as high-level decision-making, flexibility, and dexterity can be combined with robotic precision, and ability to perform task repetitively or in a dangerous environment. The book focuses on quantitative methods and control design for guaranteed robot performance and balanced human experience. Its contributions develop and expand upon material presented at various international conferences. They are organized into three parts covering: one-human–one-robot collaboration; one-human–multiple-robot collaboration; and human–swarm collaboration. Individual topic ar...
Kafka, P.; Kunitz, H.
A comprehensive review of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) related program packages is made. Three fields in methodological succession are covered: plant modeling, data quantification procedures and decision-making support. Packages for fault tree construction and minimal cut sets evaluation are referred to and the performances of three of them: RALLY, ORCHARD and SALP-PC, are discussed and compared. Notions on the raw data sources are presented and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) is given as an example for data base management system generating PSA data. Aggregated risk models for support in safety assessment, plant operation and accident management (SARA, ESSM, PRISIM) are cited. Examples of systems supporting 'living PSA' (SAIS, SUPER-NET, LESSEPS 1300, NUPRA, SPSA) are given. The concluding remarks outline the state-of-the-art developments of computerized systems for reliability analyses. 1 fig., 1 tab., 51 refs. (R.Ts)
The analysis of the wind sites and the solar possibilities of Benin led the works towards the energy systems, of the autonomous photovoltaic type, coupled with batteries of storage. These appropriate energy systems were analyzed, modelled and optimized. The criteria of optimization arise from a survey realized in near the persons in charge who take care of questions of electrification in rural areas, of selected professionals who play a major role in the decision-making of the projects of electrification in rural areas, local associations which benefited from these projects in Benin, from technicians and from users of these systems. These criteria are organized into a hierarchy according to the method AMDEC. A method of adapted optimization was realized; she appeals to an original vision of levelheadedness. (author) [fr
Brusilovsky, Peter; De Gemmis, Marco; Felfernig, Alexander; Lops, Pasquale; O'Donovan, John; Tintarev, Nava; Willemsen, Martijn
As intelligent interactive systems, recommender systems focus on determining predictions thatfit the wishes and needs of users. Still, a large majority of recommender systems research focuses on accuracy criteria and much less attention is paid to how users interact with the system, and in which way
Brusilovsky, P.; Felfernig, A.; Lops, P.; O'Donovan, J.; Semeraro, G.; Tintarev, N.; Willemsen, M.C.
As intelligent interactive systems, recommender systems focus on determining predictions that fit the wishes and needs of users. Still, a large majority of recommender systems research focuses on accuracy criteria and much less attention is paid to how users interact with the system, and in which
Jamaseb, Mehdi; Jafari, Shahram; Montaseri, Farshid; Dadgar, Masoud
The main issue that is investigated in this paper, is a method for decision making of mobile robots in different conditions for this purpose, we have used expert system. In this way, that the conditions of the robot are analyzed by on expert person a special issue (like following a ball) using knowledge base and suitable decisions will be mode. Then, using this information fuzzy rules well be built, and using its rules, robots decisions can be implemented like an expert person. In this study, we have used delta3d base for implementing expert systems and CLIPS and also we have used NAO for simulation rcssserver3d robot and 3d football simulation have been used for implementing operation program
Cramp, D G; Carson, E R
One feature that characterizes the organization and delivery of health care is its inherent complexity. All too often, with so much information and so many activities involved, it is difficult for decision-makers to determine in an objective fashion an appropriate course of action. It would appear that a holistic rather than a reductionist approach would be advantageous. The aim of this paper is to review how formal systems thinking can aid decision-making in complex situations. Consideration is given as to how the use of a number of systems modelling methodologies can help in gaining an understanding of a complex decision situation. This in turn can enhance the possibility of a decision being made in a more rational, explicit and transparent fashion. The arguments and approaches are illustrated using examples taken from the public health arena.
Yih, Swu; Fan, Chin-Feng
Highlights: ► We have performed basic research in analyzing certification process and developed a regulatory decision making model for nuclear digital control system certification. The model views certification as an evidence–confidence conversion process. ► We have applied this model to analyze previous nuclear digital I and C certification experiences and obtained valuable insights. ► Furthermore, a prototype of a computer-aided licensing support system based on the model has been developed to enhance regulatory review efficiency. - Abstract: Safety-critical computing systems need regulators’ approval before operation. Such a permit issue process is called “certification”. Digital instrumentation and Control (I and C) certification in the nuclear domain has always been problematic and lengthy. Thus, the certification efficiency has always been a crucial concern to the applicant whose business depends on the regulatory decision. However, to our knowledge, there is little basic research on this topic. This study presents a Regulatory Decision-Making Model aiming at analyzing the characteristics and efficiency influence factors in a generic certification process. This model is developed from a dynamic operational perspective by viewing the certification process as an evidence–confidence conversion process. The proposed model is then applied to previous nuclear digital I and C certification experiences to successfully explain why some cases were successful and some were troublesome. Lessons learned from these cases provide invaluable insights regarding to the regulatory review activity. Furthermore, to utilize the insights obtained from the model, a prototype of a computer-aided licensing support system has been developed to speed up review evidence preparation and manipulation; thus, regulatory review efficiency can be further improved.
Gati, Itamar; Amir, Tamar
Locating clients' career decision-making difficulties is one of the first steps in career counseling. The authors demonstrate the feasibility and utility of a systematic 4-stage procedure for locating and interpreting career decision-making difficulties by analyzing responses of 626 college students (collected by Tai, 2007) to the Career…
Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than
Schinagl, S.; Paans, R.
A major problem in the decision-making process is poor communication regarding threats and risks between information security experts and decision makers. By their nature, experts have a strong interest in operational details and limited insight into the purpose of the organization as they may not
Paulus, Martin P; Yu, Angela J
Emotion processing and decision-making are integral aspects of daily life. However, our understanding of the interaction between these constructs is limited. In this review, we summarize theoretical approaches that link emotion and decision-making, and focus on research with anxious or depressed individuals to show how emotions can interfere with decision-making. We integrate the emotional framework based on valence and arousal with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. We discuss how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions provide evidence that alterations of decision-making can be viewed in terms of altered probability and value computation. We argue that the probabilistic representation of belief states in the context of partially observable Markov decision processes provides a useful approach to examine alterations in probability and value representation in individuals with anxiety and depression, and outline the broader implications of this approach. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Paulus, Martin P.; Yu, Angela J.
Emotion processing and decision-making are integral aspects of daily life. However, our understanding of the interaction between these constructs is limited. In this review, we summarize theoretical approaches to the link between emotion and decision-making, and focus on research with anxious or depressed individuals that reveals how emotions can interfere with decision-making. We integrate the emotional framework based on valence and arousal with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. We then discuss how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions provide evidence that alterations of decision-making can be viewed in terms of altered probability and value computation. We argue that the probabilistic representation of belief states in the context of partially observable Markov decision processes provides a useful approach to examine alterations in probability and value representation in individuals with anxiety and depression and outline the broader implications of this approach. PMID:22898207
Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia
A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation
Won, Henry Thome
General aviation has long been studied as a means of providing an on-demand "personal air vehicle" that bypasses the traffic at major commercial hubs. This thesis continues this research through development of a system of systems modeling methodology applicable to the selection of synergistic product concepts, market segments, and business models. From the perspective of the conceptual design engineer, the design and selection of future general aviation aircraft is complicated by the definition of constraints and requirements, and the tradeoffs among performance and cost aspects. Qualitative problem definition methods have been utilized, although their accuracy in determining specific requirement and metric values is uncertain. In industry, customers are surveyed, and business plans are created through a lengthy, iterative process. In recent years, techniques have developed for predicting the characteristics of US travel demand based on travel mode attributes, such as door-to-door time and ticket price. As of yet, these models treat the contributing systems---aircraft manufacturers and service providers---as independently variable assumptions. In this research, a methodology is developed which seeks to build a strategic design decision making environment through the construction of a system of systems model. The demonstrated implementation brings together models of the aircraft and manufacturer, the service provider, and most importantly the travel demand. Thus represented is the behavior of the consumers and the reactive behavior of the suppliers---the manufacturers and transportation service providers---in a common modeling framework. The results indicate an ability to guide the design process---specifically the selection of design requirements---through the optimization of "capability" metrics. Additionally, results indicate the ability to find synergetic solutions, that is solutions in which two systems might collaborate to achieve a better result than acting
Rodriguez, Marko A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Watkins, Jennifer H [Los Alamos National Laboratory
The ideals of the eighteenth century's Age of Enlightenment are the foundation of modern democracies. The era was characterized by thinkers who promoted progressive social reforms that opposed the long-established aristocracies and monarchies of the time. Prominent examples of such reforms include the establishment of inalienable human rights, self-governing republics, and market capitalism. Twenty-first century democratic nations can benefit from revisiting the systems developed during the Enlightenment and reframing them within the techno-social context of the Information Age. This article explores the application of social algorithms that make use of Thomas Paine's (English: 1737--1809) representatives, Adam Smith's (Scottish: 1723--1790) self-interested actors, and Marquis de Condorcet's (French: 1743--1794) optimal decision making groups. It is posited that technology-enabled social algorithms can better realize the ideals articulated during the Enlightenment.
Wang, Mingming; Sweetapple, Chris; Fu, Guangtao; Farmani, Raziyeh; Butler, David
This paper presents a new framework for decision making in sustainable drainage system (SuDS) scheme design. It integrates resilience, hydraulic performance, pollution control, rainwater usage, energy analysis, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs, and has 12 indicators. The multi-criteria analysis methods of entropy weight and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were selected to support SuDS scheme selection. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated with a SuDS case in China. Indicators used include flood volume, flood duration, a hydraulic performance indicator, cost and resilience. Resilience is an important design consideration, and it supports scheme selection in the case study. The proposed framework will help a decision maker to choose an appropriate design scheme for implementation without subjectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospitals are cornerstones for health care in a community and must continue to function in the face of a disaster. The Hospital Incident Command System (HICS is a method by which the hospital operates when an emergency is declared. Hospitals are often ill equipped to evaluate the strengths and vulnerabilities of their own management systems before the occurrence of an actual disaster. The main objective of this study was to measure the decision making performance according to HICS job actions sheets using tabletop exercises. Methods This observational study was conducted between May 1st 2008 and August 31st 2009. Twenty three Iranian hospitals were included. A tabletop exercise was developed for each hospital which in turn was based on the highest probable risk. The job action sheets of the HICS were used as measurements of performance. Each indicator was considered as 1, 2 or 3 in accordance with the HICS. Fair performance was determined as Results None of the participating hospitals had a hospital disaster management plan. The performance according to HICS was intermediate for 83% (n = 19 of the participating hospitals. No hospital had a high level of performance. The performance level for the individual sections was intermediate or fair, except for the logistic and finance sections which demonstrated a higher level of performance. The public hospitals had overall higher performances than university hospitals (P = 0.04. Conclusions The decision making performance in the Iranian hospitals, as measured during table top exercises and using the indicators proposed by HICS was intermediate to poor. In addition, this study demonstrates that the HICS job action sheets can be used as a template for measuring the hospital response. Simulations can be used to assess preparedness, but the correlation with outcome remains to be studied.
E. V. Rulko
Full Text Available The main requirement to imitating modeling of military operations adequacy. Proceeding from it is necessary that the behavior of modeling objects has been as much as possible approached to behavior of real objects in the same conditions of conditions or, at least, did not contradict logic of common sense and requirements of authorized documents. It creates necessity of working out of the mechanism, allowing to formalize administrative experience of commanders of corresponding levels and automatically to deduce decisions, on the basis of parameters of a current situation and preliminary set solving rules.As a rule, in decision-making process, the commander operates with difficult formalizable information at level of complex categories. Contrary to it, the object condition in modeling system is described in the form of a set of values of concrete parameters. For transformation of set of parameters of objects to parameters of higher level the method of the analysis of hierarchies is used.Thus there is the second problem demanding the permission synthesis of the device of decision-making on the basis of the received complex concepts. Use of the mechanism of an indistinct logic conclusion for this purpose is offered. In this case preference of a choice of this or that variant of behavior is set depending on character of crossing of the indistinct sets defined by the expert which functions of an accessory are constructed on axes generated before complex parameters. In quality konsekvents solving rules in advance generated strategy of behavior of modeling objects in this connection in offered algorithm actually there is no stage defuzzyfication act, and for accumulation of the conclusions the formula of algebraic association isused. The offered approach allows to carry out an automatic choice of alternative of behavior during modeling without participation of the operator.
Zolfagharipoor, Mohammad Amin; Ahmadi, Azadeh
The objective of this paper is to provide an efficient framework for effluent trading in river systems. The proposed framework consists of two pessimistic and optimistic decision-making models to increase the executability of river water quality trading programs. The models used for this purpose are (1) stochastic fallback bargaining (SFB) to reach an agreement among wastewater dischargers and (2) stochastic multi-criteria decision-making (SMCDM) to determine the optimal treatment strategy. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to incorporate the uncertainty into analysis. This uncertainty arises from stochastic nature and the errors in the calculation of wastewater treatment costs. The results of river water quality simulation model are used as the inputs of models. The proposed models are used in a case study on the Zarjoub River in northern Iran to determine the best solution for the pollution load allocation. The best treatment alternatives selected by each model are imported, as the initial pollution discharge permits, into an optimization model developed for trading of pollution discharge permits among pollutant sources. The results show that the SFB-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 14,834 while providing a relative consensus among pollutant sources. Meanwhile, the SMCDM-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 218,852, but it is less acceptable by pollutant sources. Therefore, it appears that giving due attention to stability, or in other words acceptability of pollution trading programs for all pollutant sources, is an essential element of their success.
Douglas A Ruff
Full Text Available Perceptual decision making is a multi-stage process where incoming sensory information is used to select one option from several alternatives. Researchers typically have adopted one of two conceptual frameworks to define the criteria for determining whether a brain region is involved in decision computations. One framework, building on single unite recordings in monkeys, posits that activity in a region involved in decision making reflects the accumulation of evidence toward a decision threshold, thus showing the lowest level of BOLD signal during the hardest decisions. The other framework instead posits that activity in a decision-making region reflects the difficulty of a decision, thus showing the highest level of BOLD signal during the hardest decisions. We had subjects perform a face detection task on degraded face images while we simultaneously recorded BOLD activity. We searched for brain regions where changes in BOLD activity during this task supported either of these frameworks by calculating the correlation of BOLD activity with reaction time - a measure of task difficulty. We found that the right supplementary eye field, right frontal eye field and right inferior frontal gyrus had increased activity relative to baseline that positively correlated with reaction time, while the left superior frontal sulcus and left middle temporal gyrus had decreased activity relative to baseline that negatively correlated with reaction time. We propose that a simple mechanism that scales a region’s activity based on task demands can explain our results.
Full Text Available The most difficult but important problem in advance driver assistance system development is how to measure and model the behavioral response of drivers with focusing on the cognition process. This paper describes driver's deceleration and acceleration behavior based on driving situation awareness in the car-following process, and then presents several driving models for analysis of driver's safety approaching behavior in traffic operation. The emphasis of our work is placed on the research of driver's various information process and multi-ruled decisionmaking mechanism by considering the complicated control process of driving; the results will be able to provide a theoretical basis for intelligent driving shaping model.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnostic error is a significant problem in specialities characterised by diagnostic uncertainty such as primary care, emergency medicine and paediatrics. Despite wide-spread availability, computerised aids have not been shown to significantly improve diagnostic decision-making in a real world environment, mainly due to the need for prolonged system consultation. In this study performed in the clinical environment, we used a Web-based diagnostic reminder system that provided rapid advice with free text data entry to examine its impact on clinicians' decisions in an acute paediatric setting during assessments characterised by diagnostic uncertainty. Methods Junior doctors working over a 5-month period at four paediatric ambulatory units consulted the Web-based diagnostic aid when they felt the need for diagnostic assistance. Subjects recorded their clinical decisions for patients (differential diagnosis, test-ordering and treatment before and after system consultation. An expert panel of four paediatric consultants independently suggested clinically significant decisions indicating an appropriate and 'safe' assessment. The primary outcome measure was change in the proportion of 'unsafe' workups by subjects during patient assessment. A more sensitive evaluation of impact was performed using specific validated quality scores. Adverse effects of consultation on decision-making, as well as the additional time spent on system use were examined. Results Subjects attempted to access the diagnostic aid on 595 occasions during the study period (8.6% of all medical assessments; subjects examined diagnostic advice only in 177 episodes (30%. Senior House Officers at hospitals with greater number of available computer workstations in the clinical area were most likely to consult the system, especially out of working hours. Diagnostic workups construed as 'unsafe' occurred in 47/104 cases (45.2%; this reduced to 32.7% following system
The National Transportation System (NTS) is undoubtedly a complex system-of-systems---a collection of diverse 'things' that evolve over time, organized at multiple levels, to achieve a range of possibly conflicting objectives, and never quite behaving as planned. The purpose of this research is to develop a virtual transportation architecture for the ultimate goal of formulating an integrated decision-making framework. The foundational endeavor begins with creating an abstraction of the NTS with the belief that a holistic frame of reference is required to properly study such a multi-disciplinary, trans-domain system. The culmination of the effort produces the Transportation Architecture Field (TAF) as a mental model of the NTS, in which the relationships between four basic entity groups are identified and articulated. This entity-centric abstraction framework underpins the construction of a virtual NTS couched in the form of an agent-based model. The transportation consumers and the service providers are identified as adaptive agents that apply a set of preprogrammed behavioral rules to achieve their respective goals. The transportation infrastructure and multitude of exogenous entities (disruptors and drivers) in the whole system can also be represented without resorting to an extremely complicated structure. The outcome is a flexible, scalable, computational model that allows for examination of numerous scenarios which involve the cascade of interrelated effects of aviation technology, infrastructure, and socioeconomic changes throughout the entire system.
Rasmussen, Jens; Lind, Morten
The paper describes a model of operators' decision making in complex system control, based on studies of event reports and performance in control rooms. This study shows how operators base their decisions on knowledge of system properties at different levels of abstraction depending on their perc...... representation of system properties in a multilevel flow model is described to provide a basis for an integrated control system design.......The paper describes a model of operators' decision making in complex system control, based on studies of event reports and performance in control rooms. This study shows how operators base their decisions on knowledge of system properties at different levels of abstraction depending...... on their perception of the system's immediate control requirements. These levels correspond to the abstraction hierarchy including system purpose, functions, and physical details, which is generally used to describe a formal design process. In emergency situations the task of the operator is to design a suitable...
Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness ...
Full Text Available This paper presents the advantages of using Weibull distributions, within the context of railway signaling systems, for enabling safety-oriented decision-making. Failure rates are used to statistically model the basic event of fault-tree analysis, and their value sizes the maximum allowable latency of failures to fulfill the safety target for which the system has been designed. Relying on field-return failure data, Weibull parameters have been calculated for an existing electronic signaling system and a comparison with existing predictive reliability data, based on exponential distribution, is provided. Results are discussed in order to drive considerations on the respect of quantitative targets and on the impact that a wrong hypothesis might have on the choice of a given architecture. Despite the huge amount of information gathered through the after-sales logbook used to build reliability distribution, several key elements for reliable estimation of failure rate values are still missing. This might affect the uncertainty of reliability parameters and the effort required to collect all the information. We then present how to intervene when operational failure rates present higher values compared to the theoretical approach: increasing the redundancies of the system or performing preventive maintenance tasks. Possible consequences of unjustified adoption of constant failure rate are presented. Some recommendations are also shared in order to build reliability-oriented logbooks and avoid data censoring phenomena by enhancing the functions of the electronic boards composing the system.
O'Donnell, Greg; O'Connell, Enda
Due to the perceived threat from climate change, prediction under changing climatic and hydrological conditions has become a dominant theme of hydrological research. Much of this research has been climate model-centric, in which GCM/RCM climate projections have been used to drive hydrological system models to explore potential impacts that should inform adaptation decision-making. However, adaptation fundamentally involves how humans may respond to increasing flood and drought hazards by changing their strategies, activities and behaviours which are coupled in complex ways to the natural systems within which they live and work. Humans are major agents of change in hydrological systems, and representing human activities and behaviours in coupled human and natural hydrological system models is needed to gain insight into the complex interactions that take place, and to inform adaptation decision-making. Governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains from the perceived increasing flood hazard. However, adopting this as a universal strategy everywhere is not affordable, particularly in times of economic stringency and given uncertainty about future climatic conditions. It has been suggested that the assumption of stationarity, which has traditionally been invoked in making hydrological risk assessments, is no longer tenable. However, before the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity is accepted, the ability to cope with the uncertain impacts of global warming on water management via the operational assumption of hydrologic stationarity should be carefully examined. Much can be learned by focussing on natural climate variability and its inherent changes in assessing alternative adaptation strategies. A stationary stochastic multisite flood hazard model has been developed that can exhibit increasing variability/persistence in annual maximum floods, starting with the traditional assumption of
Memarzadeh, Milad; Pozzi, Matteo
We illustrate how to assess the Value of Information (VoI) in sequential decision making problems modeled by Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). POMDPs provide a general framework for modeling the management of infrastructure components, including operation and maintenance, when only partial or noisy observations are available; VoI is a key concept for selecting explorative actions, with application to component inspection and monitoring. Furthermore, component-level VoI can serve as an effective heuristic for assigning priorities to system-level inspection scheduling. We introduce two alternative models for the availability of information, and derive the VoI in each of those settings: the Stochastic Allocation (SA) model assumes that observations are collected with a given probability, while the Fee-based Allocation model (FA) assumes that they are available at a given cost. After presenting these models at component-level, we investigate how they perform for system-level inspection scheduling. - Highlights: • On the Value of Information in POMDPs, for optimal exploration of systems. • A method for assessing the Value of Information of permanent monitoring. • A method for allocating inspections in systems made up by parallel POMDPs.
Khani, Abbas; Kermani, Mojtaba; Hesam, Soghra; Haghparast, Abbas; Argandoña, Enrike G; Rainer, Gregor
Despite the evidence for altered decision making in cannabis abusers, the role of the cannabinoid system in decision-making circuits has not been studied. Here, we examined the effects of cannabinoid modulation during cost-benefit decision making in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), key brain areas involved in decision making. We trained different groups of rats in a delay-based and an effort-based form of cost-benefit T-maze decision-making task. During test days, the rats received local injections of either vehicle or ACEA, a cannabinoid type-1 receptor (CB1R) agonist in the ACC or OFC. We measured spontaneous locomotor activity following the same treatments and characterized CB1Rs localization on different neuronal populations within these regions using immunohistochemistry. We showed that CB1R activation in the ACC impaired decision making such that rats were less willing to invest physical effort to gain high reward. Similarly, CB1R activation in the OFC induced impulsive pattern of choice such that rats preferred small immediate rewards to large delayed rewards. Control tasks ensured that the effects were specific for differential cost-benefit tasks. Furthermore, we characterized widespread colocalizations of CB1Rs on GABAergic axonal ends but few colocalizations on glutamatergic, dopaminergic, and serotonergic neuronal ends. These results provide first direct evidence that the cannabinoid system plays a critical role in regulating cost-benefit decision making in the ACC and OFC and implicate cannabinoid modulation of synaptic ends of predominantly interneurons and to a lesser degree other neuronal populations in these two frontal regions.
Luketina, Hrvoje; Fotopoulou, Christina; Luketina, Ruzica-Rosalia; Pilger, Adak; Sehouli, Jalid
The systemic treatment of epithelial ovarian cancer (OC) is one of the cornerstones in the multimodal management of advanced OC in both primary and recurrent stages of this disease. In most situations various treatment options are available but only few data exists about the treatment decision-making process. Therefore, we conducted a review of the current literature regarding the decision-making process concerning the systemic therapy in patients with advanced ovarian cancer. The electronic database MEDLINE (PubMed) was systematically reviewed for studies that evaluate the treatment decision-making processes in patients with advanced OC. The PubMed database was searched in detail for all titles and abstracts of potentially relevant studies published between 1995 and 2011. An initial search identified 15 potentially relevant studies, but only seven met all inclusion criteria. Factors that influence treatment decisions in patients with OC include not only rational arguments and medical reasons, but also individual attitudes, fears, existential questions, various projections resulting from the physician patient relationship and the social environment. The physician's personal experience with OC treatment seems to be an important factor, followed by previous personal experience with medical issues, and the fear of side-effects and future metastases. Family and self-support organisations also seem to play a significant role in the treatment decision-making process. This review underlines the need for more research activities to explore the treatment decision-making process to enable the best individual support for patients in treatment decision-making. It is a challenge for clinicians to determine the individual information needs of women with OC and to involve them during the decision-making process to the extent they wish.
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...
Hecher, Maria; Hatzl, Stefanie; Knoeri, Christof; Posch, Alfred
As heat demand of buildings accounts for a significant amount of final energy use and related carbon emissions, it’s important to gain insights into the homeowners’ decision-making processes and to identify factors determining the choice of heating systems. In this study, data was collected in an online survey carried out in 2015, from private homeowners of existing and newly built single and double-family houses in Austria who had invested in a new heating system within the last ten years (N=484). In contrast to previous studies, this study specifically investigates the triggers behind homeowner decisions to invest in a new heating system (e.g. problem, opportunity, or new building situation). Results of binary logistic regression analysis show that subsidies for heating system tabinvestments and infrastructural adjustments reveal to be most effective for homeowners in problem situations to foster alternative heating systems. For homeowners in opportunity situations (e.g. building refurbishment), in addition operational convenience appears to be important. For new buildings, the main barriers for alternative heating system adoption were found in the positive perception of fuel supply security and feasibility of fossil systems. Thus, the use of trigger-specific policy measures is proposed to foster alternative heating systems in the residential building sector. - Highlights: • Homeowners’ triggers determine heating system adoption decisions. • It is crucial to reach homeowners early enough to avoid problem situations. • For problem-triggered homeowners, subsidies are most effective. • Opportunity-triggered homeowners prefer alternative heating systems. • Opportunity-triggered homeowners need solid decision basis for technology comparison.
King, Russel J.
This qualitative study, using a modified Delphi method, was conducted to develop a decision-making framework for the total ownership cost management of complex systems in the aerospace industry. The primary focus of total ownership cost is to look beyond the purchase price when evaluating complex system life cycle alternatives. A thorough literature review and the opinions of a group of qualified experts resulted in a compilation of total ownership cost best practices, cost drivers, key performance factors, applicable assessment methods, practitioner credentials and potential barriers to effective implementation. The expert panel provided responses to the study questions using a 5-point Likert-type scale. Data were analyzed and provided to the panel members for review and discussion with the intent to achieve group consensus. As a result of the study, the experts agreed that a total ownership cost analysis should (a) be as simple as possible using historical data; (b) establish cost targets, metrics, and penalties early in the program; (c) monitor the targets throughout the product lifecycle and revise them as applicable historical data becomes available; and (d) directly link total ownership cost elements with other success factors during program development. The resultant study framework provides the business leader with incentives and methods to develop and implement strategies for controlling and reducing total ownership cost over the entire product life cycle when balancing cost, schedule, and performance decisions.
Wivel, Ashley E; Lapane, Kate; Kleoudis, Christi; Singer, Burton H; Horwitz, Ralph I
To guide management decisions for an index patient, evidence is required from comparisons between approximate matches to the profile of the index case, where some matches contain responses to treatment and others act as controls. We describe a method for constructing clinically relevant histories/profiles using data collected but unreported from 2 recent phase 3 randomized controlled trials assessing belimumab in subjects with clinically active and serologically positive systemic lupus erythematosus. Outcome was the Systemic lupus erythematosus Responder Index (SRI) measured at 52 weeks. Among 1175 subjects, we constructed an algorithm utilizing 11 trajectory variables including 4 biological, 2 clinical, and 5 social/behavioral. Across all biological and social/behavioral variables, the proportion of responders based on the SRI whose value indicated clinical worsening or no improvement ranged from 27.5% to 42.3%. Kappa values suggested poor agreement, indicating that each biological and patient-reported outcome provides different information than gleaned from the SRI. The richly detailed patient profiles needed to guide decision-making in clinical practice are sharply at odds with the limited information utilized in conventional randomized controlled trial analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul
Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges
Jokura, Hidefumi; Yoshimoto, Takashi
Treatment of some large, deep-seated arteriovenous malformations is still a challenge to neurosurgeons. The recent development of non-invasive imaging modalities has increased the chance of finding asymptomatic AVM's, for which evaluation for treatment is more complicated than in symptomatic cases. Currently there are 3 major treatment options for AVM: microsurgical removal, radiosurgery, and intravascular embolization. It is not easy to choose the best single modality or combination of modalities for individual patients, who have different types of onset, neurological deficits, size and location, and social background. After the installation of the Gamma Knife in November 1991, we established an 'AVM Treatment Board.' It comprises vascular neurosurgeons, endovascular neurosurgeons, and radio-neurosurgeons, and meetings are held twice a month. Every AVM case referred to us is presented to the board, and treatment strategy is selected after a discussion among experts who know the advantages and drawbacks of each treatment modality. We describe this board system in detail and emphasize the importance of gathering expertise in decision making. (author)
Pham-The, Hai; Nam, Nguyen-Hai; Nga, Doan-Viet; Hai, Dang Thanh; Dieguez-Santana, Karel; Marrero-Poncee, Yovani; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Casanola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong
Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling has been widely used in medicinal chemistry and computational toxicology for many years. Today, as the amount of chemicals is increasing dramatically, QSAR methods have become pivotal for the purpose of handling the data, identifying a decision, and gathering useful information from data processing. The advances in this field have paved a way for numerous alternative approaches that require deep mathematics in order to enhance the learning capability of QSAR models. One of these directions is the use of Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) that potentially provide a means to exploit the advantages of manifold learning through decomposition frameworks, while improving generalization and predictive performance. In this paper, we presented MCS as a next generation of QSAR modeling techniques and discuss the chance to mining the vast number of models already published in the literature. We systematically revisited the theoretical frameworks of MCS as well as current advances in MCS application for QSAR practice. Furthermore, we illustrated our idea by describing ensemble approaches on modeling histone deacetylase (HDACs) inhibitors. We expect that our analysis would contribute to a better understanding about MCS application and its future perspectives for improving the decision making of QSAR models. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Vaiopoulou, Julie
The present study examines the factors influencing a decision-making process, with specific focus on the role of dysfunctional myths (DM). DM are thoughts or beliefs that are rather irrational, however influential to people's decisions. In this paper a decision-making process regarding the career choice of university students majoring in natural sciences and education (N=496) is examined by analyzing survey data taken via Career Decision Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ). The difficulty of making the choice and the certainty about one's decision were the state variables, while the independent variables were factors related to the lack of information or knowledge needed, which actually reflect a bounded rationality. Cusp catastrophe analysis, based on both least squares and maximum likelihood procedures, showed that the nonlinear models predicting the two state variables were superior to linear alternatives. Factors related to lack of knowledge about the steps involved in the process of career decision-making, lack of information about the various occupations, lack of information about self and lack of motivation acted as asymmetry, while dysfunctional myths acted as bifurcation factor for both state variables. The catastrophe model, grounded in empirical data, revealed a unique role for DM and a better interpretation within the context of complexity and the notion of bounded rationality. The analysis opens the nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) perspective in studying decision-making processes. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
Green, Mavis F.
This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.
Certain classes of system-level risk depend partly on decentralized lay decision making. For instance, an organization's network security risk depends partly on its employees' responses to phishing attacks. On a larger scale, the risk within a financial system depends partly on households' responses to mortgage sales pitches. Behavioral economics shows that lay decisionmakers typically depart in systematic ways from the normative rationality of expected utility (EU), and instead display heuristics and biases as captured in the more descriptively accurate prospect theory (PT). In turn, psychological studies show that successful deception ploys eschew direct logical argumentation and instead employ peripheral-route persuasion, manipulation of visceral emotions, urgency, and familiar contextual cues. The detection of phishing emails and inappropriate mortgage contracts may be framed as a binary classification task. Signal detection theory (SDT) offers the standard normative solution, formulated as an optimal cutoff threshold, for distinguishing between good/bad emails or mortgages. In this article, we extend SDT behaviorally by rederiving the optimal cutoff threshold under PT. Furthermore, we incorporate the psychology of deception into determination of SDT's discriminability parameter. With the neo-additive probability weighting function, the optimal cutoff threshold under PT is rendered unique under well-behaved sampling distributions, tractable in computation, and transparent in interpretation. The PT-based cutoff threshold is (i) independent of loss aversion and (ii) more conservative than the classical SDT cutoff threshold. Independently of any possible misalignment between individual-level and system-level misclassification costs, decentralized behavioral decisionmakers are biased toward underdetection, and system-level risk is consequently greater than in analyses predicated upon normative rationality. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
Full Text Available Non-Performing Loans (NPLs are representing nowadays one of the main challenges for the banking systems all over the world. Therefore, a sustainable decision-making process should be implemented, for minimizing the effects of credit risk. The current paper uses a dynamic panel regression model to present the determinants of NPLs for the largest five banks of the Romanian Banking System during 2007-2016. A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM regression is used and defined under three different types of variables: bank specific indicators, macroeconomic indicators and qualitative variables. Other studies illustrated also the determinants of NPLs in various banking systems from all around the world, such as Japan, China or several CEE countries (especially the emergent ones. After an in-depth analysis of the literature and Romanian market, the following variables were found to be relevant and were introduced into a dynamic data panel model: unemployment rate, annual average growth rate of gross domestic product, return on equity (ROE, loan to deposit ratio (LTD. The existing literature presents ROE as having a negative impact on NPLs, unemployment rate being positive correlated with NPLs and a negative relationship between economic growth and such loans. Our contribution to the current literature is represented by the introduction of two additional qualitative variables (Board Risk Management Ratio (BRMR, as the proportion of risk managers within the Board of Directors of each bank in question and the Expert Aggregate Priority Vector (EAPV, as the aggregated perceived risk regarding the NPLs. The decision of introducing these variables relies on previous research made in this area, results being validated by experts from the Romanian Banking System, according to the BASEL III and NBR criteria. The results of the current paper are consistent with the existent literature, the correlations and impact of the variables being relevant for the subject
National Research Council Staff; Space Studies Board; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council; National Academy of Sciences
... from Planetary Satellites and Small Solar System Bodies Framework for Decision Making Task Group on Sample Return from Small Solar System Bodies Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998 i Copyrightthe true use are Please breaks...
Nill, Alexander; Schibrowsky, John A.
An experiment was conducted to study how marketing students' ethical decision making was influenced by their perceived moral intensity (PMI), corporate culture, and the reward system. The findings indicate that levels of awareness of the ethical consequences of a decision, the corporate culture, and the reward system all significantly affect…
Cetiner, Sacit M [ORNL; Kisner, Roger A [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL; Fugate, David L [ORNL
Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The
Glasdam, Stinne; Oeye, Christine; Thrysoee, Lars
This article focuses on patients' participation in decision-making in meetings with healthcare professionals in a healthcare system, based on neoliberal regulations and ideas. Drawing on two constructed empirical cases, primarily from the perspective of patients, this article analyses and discusses the clinical practice around decision-making meetings within a Foucauldian perspective. Patients' participation in decision-making can be seen as an offshoot of respect for patient autonomy. A treatment must be chosen, when patients consult physicians. From the perspective of patients, there is a tendency for healthcare professionals to supply the patients with the information that they think are necessary for them to make their own decision. But patients do not always want to be a 'customer' in the healthcare system; they want to be a patient, consulting an expert for help and advice, which creates resistance to some parts of the decision-making process. Both professionals and patients are subject to the structural frame of the medical field, formed of both neoliberal framework and medical logic. The decision-making competence in relation to the choice of treatment is placed away from the professionals and seen as belonging to the patient. A 'projectification' of the patient occurs, whereby the patient becomes responsible for his/her choices in treatment and care and the professionals support him/her with knowledge, preferences, and alternative views, out of which he/she must make his/her own choices, and the responsibility for those choices now and in the future. At the same time, there is a tendency towards de-professionalization. In that light, participation of patients in decision-making can be regarded as a tacit governmentality strategy that shapes the location of responsibility between individual and society, and independent patients and healthcare professionals, despite the basically desirable, appropriate, and necessary idea of involving patients in their own
Lowe, Robert; Ziemke, Tom
The somatic marker hypothesis (SMH) posits that the role of emotions and mental states in decision-making manifests through bodily responses to stimuli of import to the organism's welfare. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), proposed by Bechara and Damasio in the mid-1990s, has provided the major source of empirical validation to the role of somatic markers in the service of flexible and cost-effective decision-making in humans. In recent years the IGT has been the subject of much criticism concerning: (1) whether measures of somatic markers reveal that they are important for decision-making as opposed to behaviour preparation; (2) the underlying neural substrate posited as critical to decision-making of the type relevant to the task; and (3) aspects of the methodological approach used, particularly on the canonical version of the task. In this paper, a cognitive robotics methodology is proposed to explore a dynamical systems approach as it applies to the neural computation of reward-based learning and issues concerning embodiment. This approach is particularly relevant in light of a strongly emerging alternative hypothesis to the SMH, the reversal learning hypothesis, which links, behaviourally and neurocomputationally, a number of more or less complex reward-based decision-making tasks, including the 'A-not-B' task - already subject to dynamical systems investigations with a focus on neural activation dynamics. It is also suggested that the cognitive robotics methodology may be used to extend systematically the IGT benchmark to more naturalised, but nevertheless controlled, settings that might better explore the extent to which the SMH, and somatic states per se, impact on complex decision-making.
Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.
This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,
Lyles, Garry; Flores, Tim; Hundley, Jason; Feldman, Stuart; Monk, Timothy
The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low earth orbit (LEO) large-scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decision-making framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing figure of merit (FOM)-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.
Starke, Jens; Berkemer, Rainer
This report discusses the art of scientific modeling in general. Different modeling approaches and their investigation are outlined. The final issue is to elaborate on the preconditions for utilizing mathematical models for decision making. We are very much indebted to the participants of the wor...
Full Text Available A method of a sequential time evaluation of choice of variant and decision making to avoid predicted dangerous approach of the aircraft at implementation of Free Flight concept in air traffic management is presented. Expressions for an evaluation of boundary instants by using the spline method are derived. Interval estimation is given by calculation of a confidence time interval.
Full Text Available The life cycle of production system shows the progress of production system from the inception to the termination of the system. During each stage, mainly in the design stage, certain strategic decisions have to be taken. These decisions are more complex as the decision makers have to assess a wide range of alternatives based on a set of conflicting criteria. As the decision making process is found to be unstructured, characterized by domain dependent knowledge, there is a need to apply an efficient multi-criteria decision making (MCDM tool to help the decision makers in making correct decisions. This paper explores the application of a novel MCDM method i.e. Preference selection index (PSI method to solve various decision-making problems that are generally encountered in the design stage of production system life cycle. To prove the potentiality, applicability and accuracy of PSI method in solving decision making problem during the design stage of production system life cycle, five examples are cited from the literature and are compared with the results obtained by the past researchers.
Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.
We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...
Wang, Yu; Li, Peng-Fei; Tian, Yu; Ren, Jing-Jing; Li, Jing-Song
The use of a shared decision-making (SDM) process in antihyperglycemic medication strategy decisions is necessary due to the complexity of the conditions of diabetes patients. Knowledge of guidelines is used as decision aids in clinical situations, and during this process, no patient health conditions are considered. In this paper, we propose an SDM system framework for type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients that not only contains knowledge abstracted from guidelines but also employs a multilabel classification model that uses class-imbalanced electronic health record (EHR) data and that aims to provide a recommended list of available antihyperglycemic medications to help physicians and patients have an SDM conversation. The use of EHR data to serve as a decision-support component in decision aids helps physicians and patients to reach a more intuitive understanding of current health conditions and allows the tailoring of the available knowledge to each patient, leading to a more effective SDM. Real-world data from 2542 T2DM inpatient EHRs were substituted by 77 features and eight output labels, i.e., eight antihyperglycemic medications, and these data were utilized to build and validate the recommendation model. The multilabel recommendation model exhibited stable performance in every single-label classification and showed the ability to predict minority positive cases in which the average recall value of the eight classes was 0.9898. As a whole multilabel classifier, the recommendation model demonstrated outstanding performance, with scores of 0.0941 for Hamming Loss, 0.7611 for Accuracy exam , 0.9664 for Recall exam , and 0.8269 for F exam .
Bolten, J. D.; Mohammed, I. N.; Srinivasan, R.; Lakshmi, V.
Better understanding of the hydrological cycle of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) and addressing the value-added information of using remote sensing data on the spatial variability of soil moisture over the Mekong Basin is the objective of this work. In this work, we present the development and assessment of the LMRB (drainage area of 495,000 km2) Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The coupled model framework presented is part of SERVIR, a joint capacity building venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development, providing state-of-the-art, satellite-based earth monitoring, imaging and mapping data, geospatial information, predictive models, and science applications to improve environmental decision-making among multiple developing nations. The developed LMRB SWAT model enables the integration of satellite-based daily gridded precipitation, air temperature, digital elevation model, soil texture, and land cover and land use data to drive SWAT model simulations over the Lower Mekong River Basin. The LMRB SWAT model driven by remote sensing climate data was calibrated and verified with observed runoff data at the watershed outlet as well as at multiple sites along the main river course. Another LMRB SWAT model set driven by in-situ climate observations was also calibrated and verified to streamflow data. Simulated soil moisture estimates from the two models were then examined and compared to a downscaled Soil Moisture Active Passive Sensor (SMAP) 36 km radiometer products. Results from this work present a framework for improving SWAT performance by utilizing a downscaled SMAP soil moisture products used for model calibration and validation. Index Terms: 1622: Earth system modeling; 1631: Land/atmosphere interactions; 1800: Hydrology; 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets; 1840 Hydrometeorology; 1855: Remote sensing; 1866: Soil moisture; 6334: Regional Planning
Sokolova, Marina V
The study of complex systems attracts the attention of many researchers in diverse fields. Complex systems are characterized by a high number of entities and a high degree of interactions. One of the most important features is that they do not involve a central organizing authority, but the various elements that make up the systems are self-organized. Moreover, some complex systems possess an emergency priority: climate change and sustainable development research, studies of public health, ecosystem habitats, epidemiology, and medicine, among others. Unfortunately, a great number of today’s overlapping approaches fail to meet the needs of decision makers when managing complex domains. Indeed, the design of complex systems often requires the integration of a number of artificial intelligence tools and techniques. The problem can be viewed in terms of goals, states, and actions, choosing the best action to move the system toward its desired state or behavior. This is why agent-based approaches are used to mod...
Viktoria V. Zaets; Alexey V. Panov
The paper describes the development of a range of optimal protective measures for remediation of the territory of the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The computer system for decision-making support, ReSCA, was employed for the estimations. Costs and radiological effectiveness of countermeasures were evaluated.
Viktoria V. Zaets
Full Text Available The paper describes the development of a range of optimal protective measures for remediation of the territory of the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The computer system for decision-making support, ReSCA, was employed for the estimations. Costs and radiological effectiveness of countermeasures were evaluated.
Jovanovic, A.; Auerkari, P.; Brear, J.M.
A multi-criteria decision making tool for engineering applications has been developed in the European project BE5935. The tool has been developed and applied in the area of power plants, primarily for the decisions regarding the inspection and maintenance planning in the area of power plants. Practical application of the methodology and of the software is shown here for the damage assessment of critical components. (authors)
Koon, Adam D; Rao, Krishna D; Tran, Nhan T; Ghaffar, Abdul
Attention is increasingly directed to bridging the gap between the production of knowledge and its use for health decision-making in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An important and underdeveloped area of health policy and systems research (HPSR) is the organization of this process. Drawing from an interdisciplinary conception of embeddedness, a literature review was conducted to identify examples of embedded HPSR used to inform decision-making in LMICs. The results of the literature review were organized according to the World Health Organization's Building Blocks Framework. Next, a conceptual model was created to illustrate the arrangement of organizations that produce embedded HPSR and the characteristics that facilitate its uptake into the arena of decision-making. We found that multiple forces converge to create context-specific pathways through which evidence enters into decision-making. Depending on the decision under consideration, the literature indicates that decision-makers may call upon an intricate combination of actors for sourcing HPSR. While proximity to decision-making does have advantages, it is not the position of the organization within the network, but rather the qualities the organization possesses, that enable it to be embedded. Our findings suggest that four qualities influence embeddedness: reputation, capacity, quality of connections to decision-makers, and quantity of connections to decision-makers and others. In addition to this, the policy environment (e.g. the presence of legislation governing the use of HPSR, presence of strong civil society, etc.) strongly influences uptake. Through this conceptual model, we can understand which conditions are likely to enhance uptake of HPSR in LMIC health systems. This raises several important considerations for decision-makers and researchers about the arrangement and interaction of evidence-generating organizations in health systems.
Ventegodt, Søren; Kandel, Isack; Merrick, Joav
Scientific holistic medicine is built on holistic medical theory, on therapeutic and ethical principles. The rationale is that the therapist can take the patient into a state of salutogenesis, or existential healing, using his skills and knowledge. But how ever much we want to make therapy a science it remains partly an art, and the more developed the therapist becomes, the more of his/her decisions will be based on intuition, feeling and even inspiration that is more based on love and human concern and other spiritual motivations than on mental reason and rationality in a simple sense of the word. The provocative and paradoxal medieval western concept of the "truth telling clown", or the eastern concepts of "crazy wisdom" and "holy madness" seems highly relevant here. The problem is how we can ethically justify this kind of highly "irrational" therapeutic behavior in the rational setting of a medical institution. We argue here that holistic therapy has a very high success rate and is doing no harm to the patient, and encourage therapists, psychiatrists, psychologist and other academically trained "helpers" to constantly measure their own success-rate. This paper discusses many of the important factors that influence clinical holistic decision-making. Sexuality could, as many psychoanalysts from Freud to Reich and Searles have believed, be the most healing power that exists and also the most difficult for the mind to comprehend, and thus the most "crazy-wise" tool of therapy.
Ellen, Moriah E; Léon, Gregory; Bouchard, Gisèle; Lavis, John N; Ouimet, Mathieu; Grimshaw, Jeremy M
Decisions regarding health systems are sometimes made without the input of timely and reliable evidence, leading to less than optimal health outcomes. Healthcare organizations can implement tools and infrastructures to support the use of research evidence to inform decision-making. The purpose of this study was to profile the supports and instruments (i.e., programs, interventions, instruments or tools) that healthcare organizations currently have in place and which ones were perceived to facilitate evidence-informed decision-making. In-depth semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with individuals in three different types of positions (i.e., a senior management team member, a library manager, and a 'knowledge broker') in three types of healthcare organizations (i.e., regional health authorities, hospitals and primary care practices) in two Canadian provinces (i.e., Ontario and Quebec). The interviews were taped, transcribed, and then analyzed thematically using NVivo 9 qualitative data analysis software. A total of 57 interviews were conducted in 25 organizations in Ontario and Quebec. The main findings suggest that, for the healthcare organizations that participated in this study, the following supports facilitate evidence-informed decision-making: facilitating roles that actively promote research use within the organization; establishing ties to researchers and opinion leaders outside the organization; a technical infrastructure that provides access to research evidence, such as databases; and provision and participation in training programs to enhance staff's capacity building. This study identified the need for having a receptive climate, which laid the foundation for the implementation of other tangible initiatives and supported the use of research in decision-making. This study adds to the literature on organizational efforts that can increase the use of research evidence in decision-making. Some of the identified supports may increase the use of
Jing Youyin; Bai He; Wang Jiangjiang
Because of its energy-saving and pollutant emission reduction potentials, combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) system has been widely used in different kinds of buildings to solve building-related energetic problems and environmental issues. As various kinds of clean energy and renewable energy have been focused and applied to CCHP systems, it is urgent to find a practical decision making methodology for CCHP systems driven by different energy sources. In this paper, an evaluation model which integrates fuzzy theory with multi-criteria decision making process is proposed to assess the comprehensive benefits of CCHP systems from technology, economic, society and environment criterions. Grey relation analysis and combination weighting method are also employed to compare the integrated performances of CCHP systems driven by natural gas, fuel cell, biomass energy and combined gas-steam cycle respectively with a separation production system. Finally, a baseline residential building in Beijing, China is selected as a case to obtain the optimal CCHP system alternative. The results indicate that gas–steam combined cycle CCHP system is the optimum scheme among the five options. - Graphical abstract: A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model combined with combination weighting method and grey system theory is presented in this paper, which can be used to evaluate CCHP systems driven by different energy sources from technology, economic, environment and society criteria. Highlights: ► The integrated benefits of CCHP systems driven by different energy sources are evaluated. ► A fuzzy multi-criteria model combined with combination weighting method is proposed. ► Environment evaluation criteria play an important role in the decision-making process. ► CCHP system driven by gas–steam combined cycle is the optimal alternative.
Full Text Available The article deals with intelligent operation decision support system under condition of potentially hazardous nuclear facilities. The proposed system is referred to the class of advising systems and does not make final decisions in case of deviations of parameters to be analyzed, but generates general ways to solve an encountered problem and issues a set of recommendations for the plant personnel. In the article a fuzzy logic tool is used as mathematic tool. Lessons learnt from operation of nuclear facilities demonstrate that existing critical components (parts, areas, welding joints are subject to increased failure under conditions of high operational loads, including beyond design loads and negative environmental impact. Usually in that situation there is probability of equipment integrity failure, when the unit is at power, with severe defect downing. For instance, the coolant leak and potential development of initial penetration defect to critical dimensions. In other words, in fact, the final observable result is always one – formation and development of operational crack which jeopardizes design integrity of the component and, accordingly, seriously compromises the nuclear power unit operation. The proposed situational model is linked with real knowledge data base where generated situational pairs are stored. The expert system is used for knowledge data base formation. Actually the proposed system consists of two independent fuzzy systems. From mathematical tool point of view, the advantage of such systems combination is lack of defuzzification unit in the first system and fuzzification unit in the second one.
Fatahi, Zahra; Sadeghi, Bahman; Haghparast, Abbas
The nucleus accumbens (NAc) plays a fundamental role in decision making and anticipation of reward. In addition, exogenous cannabinoids affect the behavior of humans and animals including disruption of short-term memory and cognitive impairments. Therefore, in this study, cannabinoid agonist and antagonist were administrated into the NAc to determine the effect of cannabinoid activation in the entire NAc on delay-based decision making. Rats were trained on a cost-benefit T-maze decision making task in which the animals were well-trained to choose between a small/immediate reward and a large/delay reward. After training, the animals were implanted with guide cannulae in the NAc. On test day, they received cannabinoid agonist (Win 55,212-2; 10, 50 and 100μM) and/or antagonist (AM251; 45μM) into the NAc. Percentage of high reward choice and latency of reward achievement were evaluated. Results showed that cannabinoid agonist administration caused a decrease in high reward choice such that rats selected small/immediate reward instead of large/delay reward. Moreover, in agonist-treated animals latency of reward achievement increased. Effects of cannabinoid activation on delay-based decision making with equivalent delays demonstrated that if the delay was equated on both arm goals, animals still had a preference for the high/delay reward, showing the results was not caused by an impairment of spatial preference or memory. These finding clarified that cannabinoid system activation in the entire NAc plays a critical role in the regulation of delay-based decision making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Background Research-informed fetal monitoring guidelines recommend intermittent auscultation (IA) for fetal heart monitoring for low-risk women. However, the use of cardiotocography (CTG) continues to dominate many institutional maternity settings. Methods A mixed methods intervention study with before and after measurement was undertaken in one secondary level health service to facilitate the implementation of an initiative to encourage the use of IA. The intervention initiative was a decision-making framework called Intelligent Structured Intermittent Auscultation (ISIA) introduced through an education session. Results Following the intervention, medical records review revealed an increase in the use of IA during labour represented by a relative change of 12%, with improved documentation of clinical findings from assessments, and a significant reduction in the risk of receiving an admission CTG (RR 0.75, 95% CI, 0.60 – 0.95, p = 0.016). Conclusion The ISIA informed decision-making framework transformed the practice of IA and provided a mechanism for knowledge translation that enabled midwives to implement evidence-based fetal heart monitoring for low risk women. PMID:24884597
strengthening, and revitalization of infrastructure; housing; and a sustainable economy; as well as the health, social, cultural , historic, and environmental...Natural and cultural resources (DHS, 2011a, pp. 15–18) 30 With regard to specialized capabilities that intelligence has identified as important, FDNY...considered by FDNY to be of exceptional significance and to represent a new tactic. These included: the 2008 attack on Mumbai , the 2013 attack on the
Grubb, Amy; Brown, Sarah
This article explores the potential role of hostage negotiator characteristics and the impact of psychological constructs on negotiator success. It explores the role of Personality, Decision-Making Style, Coping Style, Cognitive Coping Style and Emotion Regulation and Emotional Intelligence within high stress environments and occupations. The findings suggest that certain individual traits and characteristics may play a role in negotiator success, via the mediation of specific styles, which are conducive to effective crisis negotiation skills. It is proposed that these findings have application within the field of hostage/crisis negotiation in the format of guidance regarding the recruitment and selection of hostage negotiators and the identification of potential training needs within individual negotiators in order to maximize their efficacy within the field. In line with this, it is argued that a psychometric tool that assesses these constructs is developed in order to aid the process of hostage negotiation selection.
Gieci, A.; Gyarfas, F.
The prototype of the NPPO-TINA expert system (Nuclear Power Plant Operation-Transparent Inference Architecture) is described. This system has been developed to support the entire decision-making intellectual activity in the control of complex technological processes. One of the ways leading to human-machine symbiosis in the integrated cognitive system is outlined. The starting model of the situation in which the operator's problem-solving task begins is described. The characteristics of human behavior in decision-making are analyzed, and the moments are explained of the most suitable use of the expert system to support the whole intellectual activity, in knowledge-based decision-making by way of problem solving. The TINA environment for the formation of expert systems is described, including the hierarchic dynamic inference control. The process of building up the NPPO-TINA expert system is outlined, and the results of testing the system prototype on the problem of an accident of the nuclear power plant primary circuit due to a failure of the coolant make-up pumps are given. (Z.S.). 10 figs., 11 refs
Ismael Cristofer Baierle
Full Text Available Many authors claim that to cope with rapid changes in social and productive environments, and especially for responding quickly to customer demands and / or users in an organization, information is needed and its management. Decision-making processes also take into account only the past experiences, and this model no longer meets the precepts of today's corporate world, considering the speed with which the market and competition are in search of improvement. Centered on the concepts of Competitive Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence, this article aims to show the importance of information processing, focusing on the processes of decision making and provide a model for their organization and storage. The findings point to the use of intelligent systems, contributing to improved decision-making process and seeking to obtain answers with high quality standards relating to market demand.
Rasmussen, J.; Lind, M.
The paper describes a model of operators' decision making in complex system control, based on studies of event reports and performance in control rooms. This study shows how operators base their decisions on knowledge of system properties at different levels of abstraction depending on their preception of the system's immediate control requirements. These levels correspond to the abstraction hierarchy including system purpose, functions, and physical details, which is generally used to describe a formal design process. In emergency situations the task of the operator is to design a suitabel control strategy for systems recovery, and the control systems designer should provide a man-machine interface, supporting the operator in identification of his task and in communication with the system at the level of abstraction corresponding to the immedite control requirement. A formalized representation of system properties in a multilevel flow model is described to provide a basis for an integrated control system design. (author)
Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali
This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…
Mutemwa, Richard I
At the onset of health system decentralization as a primary health care strategy, which constituted a key feature of health sector reforms across the developing world, efficient and effective health management information systems (HMIS) were widely acknowledged and adopted as a critical element of district health management strengthening programmes. The focal concern was about the performance and long-term sustainability of decentralized district health systems. The underlying logic was that effective and efficient HMIS would provide district health managers with the information required to make effective strategic decisions that are the vehicle for district performance and sustainability in these decentralized health systems. However, this argument is rooted in normative management and decision theory without significant unequivocal empirical corroboration. Indeed, extensive empirical evidence continues to indicate that managers' decision-making behaviour and the existence of other forms of information outside the HMIS, within the organizational environment, suggest a far more tenuous relationship between the presence of organizational management information systems (such as HMIS) and effective strategic decision-making. This qualitative comparative case-study conducted in two districts of Zambia focused on investigating the presence and behaviour of five formally identified, different information forms, including that from HMIS, in the strategic decision-making process. The aim was to determine the validity of current arguments for HMIS, and establish implications for current HMIS policies. Evidence from the eight strategic decision-making processes traced in the study confirmed the existence of different forms of information in the organizational environment, including that provided by the conventional HMIS. These information forms attach themselves to various organizational management processes and key aspects of organizational routine. The study results point
Mbuyiseni Goodlife Ntuli; Lawrence Mpela Lekhanya
This paper advocates the adoption of systemic thinking in decision-making processes in municipalities. Most importantly, in this epoch of managing in complex and thought-provoking business environment, decision making is one of the most important skills required by any manager to remain effective. The success of a municipality or any business hinges on how well decisions are taken and implemented. In this paper, I intend to scrutinize decision making processes at strategic management levels i...
Arwin Datunaya Wahyudi Sumari
Full Text Available Quick, accurate, and complete information is highly required for supporting strategically impact decision making in a Military Operation (MO in order to reduce the decision cycle and to minimize the loss. For that purpose, we propose, design and implement a hierarchical Multi Agentbased Information Fusion System for Decision Making Support (MAIFSDMS. The information fusion is implemented by applying Maximum Score of the Total Sum of Joint Probabilities (MSJP fusion method and is done by a collection of Information Fusion Agents (IFA that forms a multiagent system. MAIFS uses a combination of generalization of Dasarathy and Joint Director’s Laboratory (JDL process models for information fusion mechanism. Information fusion products that are displayed in graphical forms provide comprehensive information regarding the MO’s area dynamics. By observing the graphics resulted from the information fusion, the commandant will have situational awareness and knowledge in order to make the most accurate strategic de cision as fast as possible.
The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.
Accidental situations in NPP are great concern for operators, the facility, regulatory bodies and the environmental. This work proposes a design of intelligent system aimed to assist the operator in the process of decision making initiator events with higher relative contribution to the reactor core damage occur. The intelligent System uses the results of the pre-operational Probabilistic safety Assessment and the Thermal hydraulic Safety Analysis of the NPP Juragua as source for building its knowledge base. The nucleus of the system is presented as a design of an intelligent hybrid from the combination of the artificial intelligence techniques fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. The system works with variables from the process of the first circuit, second circuit and the containment and it is presented as a model for the integration of safety analyses in the process of decision making by the operator when tackling with accidental situations
Connolly, Daniel J.
UNDERSTANDING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING IN THE CONTEXT OF HOTEL GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS: A MULTIPLE-CASE STUDY by Daniel J. Connolly Dr. Michael D. Olsen, Chair Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management ABSTRACT This study investigates what three large, multinational hospitality companies do in practice when evaluating and making IT investment decisions. This study was launched in an attempt to 1) learn more about ...
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observing system enterprise represents a $2.4B annual investment. Earth observations from these systems are foundational to NOAA's mission to describe, understand, and predict the Earth's environment. NOAA's decision makers are charged with managing this complex portfolio of observing systems to serve the national interest effectively and efficiently. The Technology Planning & Integration for Observation (TPIO) Office currently maintains an observing system portfolio for NOAA's validated user observation requirements, observing capabilities, and resulting data products and services. TPIO performs data analytics to provide NOAA leadership business case recommendations for making sound budgetary decisions. Over the last year, TPIO has moved from massive spreadsheets to intuitive dashboards that enable Federal agencies as well as the general public the ability to explore user observation requirements and environmental observing systems that monitor and predict changes in the environment. This change has led to an organizational data management shift to analytics and visualizations by allowing analysts more time to focus on understanding the data, discovering insights, and effectively communicating the information to decision makers. Moving forward, the next step is to facilitate a cultural change toward self-serve data sharing across NOAA, other Federal agencies, and the public using intuitive data visualizations that answer relevant business questions for users of NOAA's Observing System Enterprise. Users and producers of environmental data will become aware of the need for enhancing communication to simplify information exchange to achieve multipurpose goals across a variety of disciplines. NOAA cannot achieve its goal of producing environmental intelligence without data that can be shared by multiple user communities. This presentation will describe where we are on this journey and will provide examples of
Perry, Nathan C; Wiggins, Mark W; Childs, Merilyn; Fogarty, Gerard
The study was designed to examine whether the availability of reduced-processing decision support system interfaces could improve the decision making of inexperienced personnel in the context of Although research into reduced-processing decision support systems has demonstrated benefits in minimizing cognitive load, these benefits have not typically translated into direct improvements in decision accuracy because of the tendency for inexperienced personnel to focus on less-critical information. The authors investigated whether reduced-processing interfaces that direct users' attention toward the most critical cues for decision making can produce improvements in decision-making performance. Novice participants made incident command-related decisions in experimental conditions that differed according to the amount of information that was available within the interface, the level of control that they could exert over the presentation of information, and whether they had received decision training. The results revealed that despite receiving training, participants improved in decision accuracy only when they were provided with an interface that restricted information access to the most critical cues. It was concluded that an interface that restricts information access to only the most critical cues in the scenario can facilitate improvements in decision performance. Decision support system interfaces that encourage the processing of the most critical cues have the potential to improve the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by inexperienced personnel.
Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.
We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891
Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.
Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....
Fleming, Stephen M; Whiteley, Louise Emma; Hulme, Oliver James
Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias...... functions enact a particular task set that is communicated to visual regions. Across subjects, greater shifts in decision criteria were associated with greater activation of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Our results support a hypothesis that costs bias an intermediate representation between...... perception and action, expressed via general effects on frontal cortex, and selective effects on extrastriate cortex. These findings indicate that asymmetric costs may affect a neural implementation of perceptual decision making in a similar manner to changes in category expectation, constituting a step...
Beck, Jessica; Kempener, Ruud; Cohen, Brett; Petrie, Jim
This paper explores a new approach to planning and optimization of energy networks, using a mix of global optimization and agent-based modeling tools. This approach takes account of techno-economic, environmental and social criteria, and engages explicitly with inherent network complexity in terms of the autonomous decision-making capability of individual agents within the network, who may choose not to act as economic rationalists. This is an important consideration from the standpoint of meeting sustainable development goals. The approach attempts to set targets for energy planning, by determining preferred network development pathways through multi-objective optimization. The viability of such plans is then explored through agent-based models. The combined approach is demonstrated for a case study of regional electricity generation in South Africa, with biomass as feedstock
In this work, motivated by the need to coordinate transmission maintenance scheduling among a multiplicity of self-interested entities in restructured power industry, a distributed decision support framework based on multiagent negotiation systems (MANS) is developed. An innovative risk-based transmission maintenance optimization procedure is introduced. Several models for linking condition monitoring information to the equipment's instantaneous failure probability are presented, which enable quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of maintenance activities in terms of system cumulative risk reduction. Methodologies of statistical processing, equipment deterioration evaluation and time-dependent failure probability calculation are also described. A novel framework capable of facilitating distributed decision-making through multiagent negotiation is developed. A multiagent negotiation model is developed and illustrated that accounts for uncertainty and enables social rationality. Some issues of multiagent negotiation convergence and scalability are discussed. The relationships between agent-based negotiation and auction systems are also identified. A four-step MAS design methodology for constructing multiagent systems for power system applications is presented. A generic multiagent negotiation system, capable of inter-agent communication and distributed decision support through inter-agent negotiations, is implemented. A multiagent system framework for facilitating the automated integration of condition monitoring information and maintenance scheduling for power transformers is developed. Simulations of multiagent negotiation-based maintenance scheduling among several independent utilities are provided. It is shown to be a viable alternative solution paradigm to the traditional centralized optimization approach in today's deregulated environment. This multiagent system framework not only facilitates the decision-making among competing power system entities, but
van Dyk, Liezl; Conradie, Pieter
Purpose: This article seeks to address the interface between individual learning facilitators that use course management systems (CMS) data to support decision-making and course design and institutional infrastructure providers that are responsible for institutional business intelligence. Design/methodology/approach: The design of a data warehouse…
Albus, J.; Meystel, A.; Quintero, R.
This report contains the papers from the Proceedings of the 1996 International Multidisciplinary Conference - Theoretical Semiotics. General topics covered are: semiotic in biology: biologically inspired complex systems; intelligence in constructed complex systems; intelligence of learning and evolution; fuzzy logic and the mechanisms of generalization; information representation for decision making; sematic foundations; syntactics of intelligent systems: the kind of logic available; intelligence of recognition: the semiotic tools; and multiresolutional methods.
Zhang, J. H.; Yang, J.; Sun, Y. S.
This system combines the Mapworld platform and informationization of disabled person affairs, uses the basic information of disabled person as center frame. Based on the disabled person population database, the affairs management system and the statistical account system, the data were effectively integrated and the united information resource database was built. Though the data analysis and mining, the system provides powerful data support to the decision making, the affairs managing and the public serving. It finally realizes the rationalization, normalization and scientization of disabled person affairs management. It also makes significant contributions to the great-leap-forward development of the informationization of China Disabled Person's Federation.
Helu, Moneer; Libes, Don; Lubell, Joshua; Lyons, Kevin; Morris, KC
Smart manufacturing combines advanced manufacturing capabilities and digital technologies throughout the product lifecycle. These technologies can provide decision-making support to manufacturers through improved monitoring, analysis, modeling, and simulation that generate more and better intelligence about manufacturing systems. However, challenges and barriers have impeded the adoption of smart manufacturing technologies. To begin to address this need, this paper defines requirements for data-driven decision making in manufacturing based on a generalized description of decision making. Using these requirements, we then focus on identifying key barriers that prevent the development and use of data-driven decision making in industry as well as examples of technologies and standards that have the potential to overcome these barriers. The goal of this research is to promote a common understanding among the manufacturing community that can enable standardization efforts and innovation needed to continue adoption and use of smart manufacturing technologies. PMID:28649678
Butt, Muhammad Arif; Akram, Muhammad
We present a new intuitionistic fuzzy rule-based decision-making system based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets for a process scheduler of a batch operating system. Our proposed intuitionistic fuzzy scheduling algorithm, inputs the nice value and burst time of all available processes in the ready queue, intuitionistically fuzzify the input values, triggers appropriate rules of our intuitionistic fuzzy inference engine and finally calculates the dynamic priority (dp) of all the processes in the ready queue. Once the dp of every process is calculated the ready queue is sorted in decreasing order of dp of every process. The process with maximum dp value is sent to the central processing unit for execution. Finally, we show complete working of our algorithm on two different data sets and give comparisons with some standard non-preemptive process schedulers.
Valeriy Aleksandrovich Klyukach
Full Text Available The paper considers the possibility of using modern information technologies in the executive bodies of Moscow and the federal center in the management of wholesale food complex of a metropolis. It is noted that a necessary condition for the effective functioning of all subjects of the wholesale food market of the city, including control structures, is their complete informational provision. A complex of measures aimed at implementation of informational systems into the management of activities in an urban structure. It is proven that the introduction of an information-analytical system as a tool for solving problems of food security in Moscow accelerates and improves the handling of the food market of the city, plus the trends and prospects of its development: the volume of deliveries and sales of goods, prices, and availability of inventory from manufacturers and wholesalers etc. We present architecture of information-analytical system of wholesale food market as a spatially distributed system.
Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.
Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...
Arasteh, Mohammad Ali; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Yee, Por Lip
The most appropriate organizational software is always a real challenge for managers, especially, the IT directors. The illustration of the term "enterprise software selection", is to purchase, create, or order a software that; first, is best adapted to require of the organization; and second, has suitable price and technical support. Specifying selection criteria and ranking them, is the primary prerequisite for this action. This article provides a method to evaluate, rank, and compare the available enterprise software for choosing the apt one. The prior mentioned method is constituted of three-stage processes. First, the method identifies the organizational requires and assesses them. Second, it selects the best method throughout three possibilities; indoor-production, buying software, and ordering special software for the native use. Third, the method evaluates, compares and ranks the alternative software. The third process uses different methods of multi attribute decision making (MADM), and compares the consequent results. Based on different characteristics of the problem; several methods had been tested, namely, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Elimination and Choice Expressing Reality (ELECTURE), and easy weight method. After all, we propose the most practical method for same problems.
Fleming, Stephen M; Whiteley, Louise; Hulme, Oliver J; Sahani, Maneesh; Dolan, Raymond J
Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias the perception of noisy face-house images. Asymmetries in category-specific cost were associated with enhanced blood-oxygen-level-dependent signal in a frontoparietal network. We observed selective activation of parahippocampal gyrus for changes in category-specific cost in keeping with the hypothesis that loss functions enact a particular task set that is communicated to visual regions. Across subjects, greater shifts in decision criteria were associated with greater activation of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Our results support a hypothesis that costs bias an intermediate representation between perception and action, expressed via general effects on frontal cortex, and selective effects on extrastriate cortex. These findings indicate that asymmetric costs may affect a neural implementation of perceptual decision making in a similar manner to changes in category expectation, constituting a step toward accounting for how prospective losses are flexibly integrated with sensory evidence in the brain.
Full Text Available Monica Pellerone,1 Alessia Passanisi,1 Mario Filippo Paolo Bellomo2 1Faculty of Human and Social Science, “Kore” University of Enna, Enna, 2Credito Emiliano Bank, Piazza Armerina, Italy Background: Forming one’s identity is thought to be the key developmental task of adolescence, but profound changes in personality traits also occur in this period. The negotiation of complex social settings, the creation of an integrated identity, and career choice are major tasks of adolescence. The adolescent, having to make choices for his or her future, has not only to consider his or her own aspirations and interests but also to possess a capacity for exploration and commitment; in fact, career commitments can be considered as a fit between the study or career that is chosen and personal values, skills, and preferences. Methods: The objective of the study reported here was to investigate the role of identity on profile of interests; the relation between identity and decisional style; the correlation between identity, aptitudes, interests, and school performance; and the predictive variables to school success. The research involved 417 Italian students who live in Enna, a small city located in Sicily, Italy, aged 16–19 years (197 males and 220 females in the fourth year (mean =17.2, standard deviation =0.52 and the fifth year (mean =18.2, standard deviation =0.64 of senior secondary school. The research lasted for one school year; the general group of participants consisted of 470 students, and although all participants agreed to be part of the research, there was a dropout rate of 11.28%. They completed the Ego Identity Process Questionnaire to measure their identity development, the Intelligence Structure Test to investigate aptitudes, the Self-Directed Search to value interests, and General Decision Making Style questionnaire to describe their individual decisional style. Results: The data showed that high-school performance was positively
The contribution under consideration spans a wide curve from the first deadly accident of motorized aviation in the year 1908 up to newer tendencies of the so-called team resources management on observation points and control stations in order to pursue fundamental questions in man-machine systems. A continuous differentiation in the consideration of the factor human beings in complex technical systems is described. This is illustrated by the example of concepts for leadership, communication and decision making on observation points and control stations.
This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized
Hutcherson, Cendri A; Plassmann, Hilke; Gross, James J; Rangel, Antonio
Cognitive regulation is often used to influence behavioral outcomes. However, the computational and neurobiological mechanisms by which it affects behavior remain unknown. We studied this issue using an fMRI task in which human participants used cognitive regulation to upregulate and downregulate their cravings for foods at the time of choice. We found that activity in both ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) correlated with value. We also found evidence that two distinct regulatory mechanisms were at work: value modulation, which operates by changing the values assigned to foods in vmPFC and dlPFC at the time of choice, and behavioral control modulation, which operates by changing the relative influence of the vmPFC and dlPFC value signals on the action selection process used to make choices. In particular, during downregulation, activation decreased in the value-sensitive region of dlPFC (indicating value modulation) but not in vmPFC, and the relative contribution of the two value signals to behavior shifted toward the dlPFC (indicating behavioral control modulation). The opposite pattern was observed during upregulation: activation increased in vmPFC but not dlPFC, and the relative contribution to behavior shifted toward the vmPFC. Finally, ventrolateral PFC and posterior parietal cortex were more active during both upregulation and downregulation, and were functionally connected with vmPFC and dlPFC during cognitive regulation, which suggests that they help to implement the changes to the decision-making circuitry generated by cognitive regulation.
Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.
Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such
Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)
DuBenske, Lori L; Gustafson, David H; Shaw, Bret R; Cleary, James F
Over the cancer disease trajectory, from diagnosis and treatment to remission or end of life, patients and their families face difficult decisions. The provision of information and support when most relevant can optimize cancer decision making and coping. An interactive health communication system (IHCS) offers the potential to bridge the communication gaps that occur among patients, family, and clinicians and to empower each to actively engage in cancer care and shared decision making. This is a report of the authors' experience (with a discussion of relevant literature) in developing and testing a Web-based IHCS-the Comprehensive Health Enhancement Support System (CHESS)-for patients with advanced lung cancer and their family caregivers. CHESS provides information, communication, and coaching resources as well as a symptom tracking system that reports health status to the clinical team. Development of an IHCS includes a needs assessment of the target audience and applied theory informed by continued stakeholder involvement in early testing. Critical issues of IHCS implementation include 1) need for interventions that accommodate a variety of format preferences and technology comfort ranges; 2) IHCS user training, 3) clinician investment in IHCS promotion, and 4) IHCS integration with existing medical systems. In creating such comprehensive systems, development strategies need to be grounded in population needs with appropriate use of technology that serves the target users, including the patient/family, clinical team, and health care organization. Implementation strategies should address timing, personnel, and environmental factors to facilitate continued use and benefit from IHCS.
Asmar, Joseph Al; Lahoud, Chawki; Brouche, Marwan
Cogeneration and trigeneration systems can contribute to the reduction of primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in residential and tertiary sectors, by reducing fossil fuels demand and grid losses with respect to conventional systems. The cogeneration systems are characterized by a very high energy efficiency (80 to 90%) as well as a less polluting aspect compared to the conventional energy production. The integration of these systems into the energy network must simultaneously take into account their economic and environmental challenges. In this paper, a decision-making strategy will be introduced and is divided into two parts. The first one is a strategy based on a multi-objective optimization tool with data analysis and the second part is based on an optimization algorithm. The power dispatching of the Lebanese electricity grid is then simulated and considered as a case study in order to prove the compatibility of the cogeneration power calculated by our decision-making technique. In addition, the thermal energy produced by the cogeneration systems which capacity is selected by our technique shows compatibility with the thermal demand for district heating.
Wu, Ching-Hui; Lin, Tsu-Jen; Kao, Tsu-Mu; Chen, Chyn-Rong
This paper describes a risk-informed decision-making approach used to resolve the fire barrier issue in a BWR-4 nuclear plant where Appendix R separation requirements cannot be met without installing additional fire protection features such as electrical raceway fire barrier system. The related risk measures in CDF (core damage frequency) and LERF (large early release frequency) of the fire barrier issue can be determined by calculating the difference in plant risks between various alternative cases and that met the requirement of the Appendix R. In some alternative cases, additional early-detection and fast-response fire suppression systems are suggested. In some other cases, cable re-routing of some improper layout of non-safety related cables are required. Sets of fire scenarios are re-evaluated more detailed by reviewing the cable damage impact for the BWR-4 plant. The fire hazard model, COMPBRM III-e, is used in this study and the dominant results in risk measures are benchmarked with the CFD code, FDS 2.0, to ensure that the risk impact of fire barrier is estimated accurately in the risk-informed decision making. The traditional deterministic qualitative methods, such as defense-in-depth, safety margin and post-fire safety shutdown capability are also proceeded. The value-impact analysis for proposed alternatives of fire wrapping required by Appendix R has been completed for technical basis of the exemption on Appendix R application. The outcome of the above analysis should be in compliance with the regulatory guidelines (RG) 1.174 and 1.189 for the applications in the risk-informed decision-making of the fire wrapping issues. (author)
Seyed-Hosseini, S.M.; Safaei, N.; Asgharpour, M.J.
In this paper an effective methodology related to decision making field has been developed for reprioritization of failure modes in a system Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for corrective actions. The proposed methodology can cover some of inherently shortcomings of conventional Risk Priority Number (RPN) method and like. The current prioritization methods have two main deficiencies as: they have not considered indirect relations between components and are deficient for systems with many subsystems or components. The proposed method called Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) is an effective approach for analyzing relation between components of a system in respect to its type (direct/indirect) and severity. The main advantages of DEMATEL are involving indirect relations in analyze, allocating as possible as unique ranks to alternatives and clustering alternatives in large systems. The demonstrated results have shown that DEMATEL method can be an efficient, complementary and confident approach for reprioritization of failure modes in a FMEA. For verification of proposed methodology, two illustrative practical examples are solved and obtained outcomes are reported
Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P
We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.
Pellerone, Monica; Passanisi, Alessia; Bellomo, Mario Filippo Paolo
Forming one's identity is thought to be the key developmental task of adolescence, but profound changes in personality traits also occur in this period. The negotiation of complex social settings, the creation of an integrated identity, and career choice are major tasks of adolescence. The adolescent, having to make choices for his or her future, has not only to consider his or her own aspirations and interests but also to possess a capacity for exploration and commitment; in fact, career commitments can be considered as a fit between the study or career that is chosen and personal values, skills, and preferences. The objective of the study reported here was to investigate the role of identity on profile of interests; the relation between identity and decisional style; the correlation between identity, aptitudes, interests, and school performance; and the predictive variables to school success. The research involved 417 Italian students who live in Enna, a small city located in Sicily, Italy, aged 16-19 years (197 males and 220 females) in the fourth year (mean =17.2, standard deviation =0.52) and the fifth year (mean =18.2, standard deviation =0.64) of senior secondary school. The research lasted for one school year; the general group of participants consisted of 470 students, and although all participants agreed to be part of the research, there was a dropout rate of 11.28%. They completed the Ego Identity Process Questionnaire to measure their identity development, the Intelligence Structure Test to investigate aptitudes, the Self-Directed Search to value interests, and General Decision Making Style questionnaire to describe their individual decisional style. The data showed that high-school performance was positively associated with rational decision-making style and identity diffusion predicted the use of avoidant style. Interests were related to identity exploration; the differentiation of preferences was related to identity commitment; investigative
Fong, Wee-Kean; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Lun, Yu-Fat
In spite of the fact that cities are the main sources of CO 2 emissions, presently there are still no specific measures directly addressing the global warming issue in the urban planning process in Malaysia. The present study thus aims to shed new light in the urban planning sector in Malaysia by adopting System Dynamics Model as one of the decision making tools in the urban planning process, with specific considerations on the future CO 2 emission trends. This paper presented projections of future CO 2 emission trends based on the case of Iskandar Development Region of Malaysia, under various options of urban policies, using the System Dynamics Model. The projections demonstrated the capability of the said model in serving as a decision making tool in the urban planning process, with specific reference to CO 2 emissions from cities. Recommendations have been made on the possible approach of adopting the model in the process of Structure Plan study. If the current model was successfully adopted in the urban planning process in Malaysia, it will mark the first step for Malaysia in taking specific considerations on the issues of CO 2 emissions and global warming in the urban planning process. (author)
Kramer, Lynda J.; Bailey, Randall E.; Prinzel, Lawrence J., III
NASA is investigating revolutionary crew-vehicle interface technologies that strive to proactively overcome aircraft safety barriers that would otherwise constrain the full realization of the next-generation air transportation system. A fixed-based piloted simulation experiment was conducted to evaluate the complementary use of Synthetic and Enhanced Vision technologies. Specific focus was placed on new techniques for integration and/or fusion of Enhanced and Synthetic Vision and its impact within a two-crew flight deck on the crew's decision-making process during low-visibility approach and landing operations. Overall, the experimental data showed that significant improvements in situation awareness, without concomitant increases in workload and display clutter, could be provided by the integration and/or fusion of synthetic and enhanced vision technologies for the pilot-flying and the pilot-not-flying. During non-normal operations, the ability of the crew to handle substantial navigational errors and runway incursions were neither improved nor adversely impacted by the display concepts. The addition of Enhanced Vision may not, unto itself, provide an improvement in runway incursion detection without being specifically tailored for this application. Existing enhanced vision system procedures were effectively used in the crew decision-making process during approach and missed approach operations but having to forcibly transition from an excellent FLIR image to natural vision by 100 ft above field level was awkward for the pilot-flying.
Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst
Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.
Hicks, Karen Campbell
This thesis investigated the communication and decision making process as part of the Systems Engineering practices at the NASA/Marshall Center to determine its level of effectiveness. Data was collected across three change requests to assess how decisions were made, how the decisions were communicated, and whether a process mattered in the formulation and dissemination of those decisions. Data results revealed the comprehensive decision making process for the technical change requests to be effective. Evidence revealed that the process was sufficiently tailored to accommodate the need of each individual technical change which promoted effective communication amongst the stakeholders in the formulation of the strategic decision recommendations elevated to upper management. However, data results also revealed the dissemination of the final decision and approval of the change requests from the higher organizational level down to all stakeholders was less effective. An establishment of a culmination meeting at the end of the change request decision process in which to close the communication loop with all entities would be beneficial.
Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg
Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...
Full Text Available An integrated information system based DSS is developed for Open and Distance Learning (ODL institutions in India. The system has been web structured with the most suitable newly developed modules. A DSS model has been developed for solving semi-structured and unstructured problems including decision making with regard to various programmes and activities operating in the ODLIs. The DSS model designed for problem solving is generally based on quantitative formulas, whereas for problems involving imprecision and uncertainty, a fuzzy theory based DSS is employed. The computer operated system thus developed would help the ODLI management to quickly identify programmes and activities that require immediate attention. It shall also provide guidance for obtaining the most appropriate managerial decisions without any loss of time. As a result, the various subsystems operating in the ODLI are able to administer its activities more efficiently and effectively to enhance the overall performance of the concerned ODL institution to a new level.
Garza, Maria; Mohan, Chadag Vishnumurthy; Rahman, Meezanur; Wieland, Barbara; Häsler, Barbara
The aquaculture sector in Bangladesh is an important employer and a significant source of foreign exchange. In addition, it contributes significantly to food security due to the role of fish in peoples' diets, the most important source of protein and micronutrients. However, infectious diseases represent an important barrier to sector development due to economic losses and vulnerability of smallholders. The aim of this study was to gain an overview of the impact of infectious diseases in the aquaculture sector, and to assess the usefulness and use of impact studies in decision making for animal health management and biosecurity governance in Bangladesh. A review of scientific and grey literature on infectious disease impact in different aquaculture systems was conducted and their methodologies and findings summarised. Subsequently, interviews with 28 stakeholders from the private and public sector were conducted to enquire about decision-making structures in animal health management. The data were analysed using the framework method to allow the development of themes, by using the information, experiences and opinions inductively obtained from interviewees, deductively through the reviewed literature. Results showed a substantial socio-economic impact of infectious diseases. The numerous stakeholders involved in the decision-making process explained that key barriers to effective aquaculture health management were insufficient resources to investigate and tackle infectious aquatic animal diseases, a dearth of legislation and capacity for disease surveillance, a reliance on reactive response, and a lack of impact and evidence-based approaches for prioritising problem-solving, commonly based on anecdotal evidence. Furthermore, communication among the multiple stakeholders involved was reported to be weak. This complex situation requires a multi-level response, which should span from strengthening the knowledge of farmers and professionals in the field to the
Mbuyiseni Goodlife Ntuli
Full Text Available This paper advocates the adoption of systemic thinking in decision-making processes in municipalities. Most importantly, in this epoch of managing in complex and thought-provoking business environment, decision making is one of the most important skills required by any manager to remain effective. The success of a municipality or any business hinges on how well decisions are taken and implemented. In this paper, I intend to scrutinize decision making processes at strategic management levels in the municipalities within the province of KwaZulu-Natal. In doing that, a mixed method approach of qualitative and quantitative techniques was adopted in gathering data from sixty-one municipalities within the province of KwaZulu-Natal. This was done in order to substantiate theoretical perspectives from different erudite scholars on the discourse of systemic thinking in decision making processes. This notion of systemic thinking is coined upon the universally used rational decision making process model. Thus, the conceptualization of rational decision-making model was also considered in this paper, the possibility of decision failure, the complexity of the municipality, and systemic thinking as the recommended option of dealing with complexity was explored. The results indicates that the theory that underpins the adoption of systemic thinking in dealing with complexity today’s business environment is relevant.
Menychtas, Andreas; Tsanakas, Panayiotis
The proper acquisition of biosignals data from various biosensor devices and their remote accessibility are still issues that prevent the wide adoption of point-of-care systems in the routine of monitoring chronic patients. This Letter presents an advanced framework for enabling patient monitoring that utilises a cloud computing infrastructure for data management and analysis. The framework introduces also a local mechanism for uniform biosignals collection from wearables and biosignal sensors, and decision support modules, in order to enable prompt and essential decisions. A prototype smartphone application and the related cloud modules have been implemented for demonstrating the value of the proposed framework. Initial results regarding the performance of the system and the effectiveness in data management and decision-making have been quite encouraging. PMID:27222731
Menychtas, Andreas; Tsanakas, Panayiotis; Maglogiannis, Ilias
The proper acquisition of biosignals data from various biosensor devices and their remote accessibility are still issues that prevent the wide adoption of point-of-care systems in the routine of monitoring chronic patients. This Letter presents an advanced framework for enabling patient monitoring that utilises a cloud computing infrastructure for data management and analysis. The framework introduces also a local mechanism for uniform biosignals collection from wearables and biosignal sensors, and decision support modules, in order to enable prompt and essential decisions. A prototype smartphone application and the related cloud modules have been implemented for demonstrating the value of the proposed framework. Initial results regarding the performance of the system and the effectiveness in data management and decision-making have been quite encouraging.
Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H
No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the
Epstein Richard H
Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of
Political and policy dynamics associated with local road systems planning, management, and financing merit special attention. This study: 1) analyzes stakeholder attitudes, knowledge, and engagement about financing for local road system management, t...
Leatherman, Martha E; Goethe, Katherine E
The goal of this column is to help experienced clinicians navigate the judicial system when they are confronted with requests for capacity evaluations that involve guardianship (conservatorship). The interface between the growing elderly medical population and increasing requests for substituted decision making is becoming more complex. This column will help practicing psychiatrists understand the medical, legal, and societal factors involved in adult guardianship. Such understanding is necessary in order to effectively perform guardianship evaluations and adequately inform courts, patients, and families about the psychiatric diagnoses central to substituted decision making.
Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO
A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.
Grasso, Raffaele; Giannecchini, Simone
.... This paper describes a tactical decision aid system based on fuzzy logic reasoning for data fusion and on current Open Geospatial Consortium specifications for interoperability, data dissemination...
Chang, Che-Chia; Chen, Tzu-Ping; Yeh, Chi-Hsiao; Huang, Pin-Fu; Wang, Yao-Chang; Yin, Shun-Ying
The selection of ideal candidates for surgical intervention among patients with parapneumonic pleural effusion remains challenging. In this retrospective study, we sought to identify the main predictors of surgical treatment and devise a simple scoring system to guide surgical decision-making. Between 2005 and 2014, we identified 276 patients with parapneumonic pleural effusion. Patients in the training set (n=201) were divided into two groups according to their treatment modality (non-surgery vs. surgery). Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we devised a scoring system to guide surgical decision-making. The score was subsequently validated in an independent set of 75 patients. A white blood cell count >13,500/µL, pleuritic pain, loculations, and split pleura sign were identified as independent predictors of surgical treatment. A weighted score based on these factors was devised, as follows: white blood cell count >13,500/µL (one point), pleuritic pain (one point), loculations (two points), and split pleura sign (three points). A score >4 was associated with a surgical approach with a sensitivity of 93.4%, a specificity of 82.4%, and an area under curve (AUC) of 0.879 (95% confidence interval: 0.828-0.930). In the validation set, a sensitivity of 94.3% and a specificity of 79.6% were found (AUC=0.869). The proposed scoring system reliably identifies patients with parapneumonic pleural effusion who are candidates for surgery. Pending independent external validation, our score may inform the appropriate use of surgical interventions in this clinical setting.
New views upon the formation of a system of means for an efficient support of the operator are presented. The development of a system to promote cognitive activities at the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute is outlined. As the major issues, changes in the operator's working environment and the starting model of the working situation during stress are briefly described. The fundamental elements of the supporting system under development, which constitute its didactical and engineering-cognitive basis, are explained. The suitability of using expert system technology in this supporting system is substantiated. A particular example of expert counselling of the NPPO-TINA type (Nuclear Power Plant Operation - Transparent Inference Architecture) is reported. (Z.S.). 5 figs., 6 refs
Zhou, Erxiong; Xin, Chaoshan; Ma, Botao; Cheng, Kai
In allusion to the incomplete indexes system and not making decision on the subjectivity and objectivity of PV power station connecting system, based on the combination of improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) as well as grey correlation degree analysis (GCDA) is comprehensively proposed to select the appropriate system connecting scheme of PV power station. Firstly, indexes of PV power station connecting system are divided the recursion order hierarchy and calculated subjective weight by the improved AHP. Then, CRITIC is adopted to determine the objective weight of each index through the comparison intensity and conflict between indexes. The last the improved GCDA is applied to screen the optimal scheme, so as to, from the subjective and objective angle, select the connecting system. Comprehensive decision of Xinjiang PV power station is conducted and reasonable analysis results are attained. The research results might provide scientific basis for investment decision.
Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie
A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.
Feng, Ding-Zhong; Yamashiro, Mitsuo
A decision-making model is developed for an optimal production policy in a two-stage production-delivery system that incorporates a fixed quantity supply of finished goods to a buyer at a fixed interval of time. First, a general cost model is formulated considering both supplier (of raw materials) and buyer (of finished products) sides. Then an optimal solution to the problem is derived on basis of the cost model. Using the proposed model and its optimal solution, one can determine optimal production lot size for each stage, optimal number of transportation for semi-finished goods, and optimal quantity of semi-finished goods transported each time to meet the lumpy demand of consumers. Also, we examine the sensitivity of raw materials ordering and production lot size to changes in ordering cost, transportation cost and manufacturing setup cost. A pragmatic computation approach for operational situations is proposed to solve integer approximation solution. Finally, we give some numerical examples.
Lee, Chang Won; Kwak, N K
This paper deals with strategic enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model. The model is developed and analyzed on the basis of the data obtained from a leading patient-oriented provider of health-care services in Korea. Goal criteria and priorities are identified and established via the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Goal programming (GP) is utilized to derive satisfying solutions for designing, evaluating, and implementing an ERP. The model results are evaluated and sensitivity analyses are conducted in an effort to enhance the model applicability. The case study provides management with valuable insights for planning and controlling health-care activities and services.
Begic, Fajik; Afgan, Naim H.
In this paper the multi-criteria sustainability assessment of various options of the energy power system of the JP Elektroprivreda of Bosnia and Herzegovina is performed. The rehabilitation of a 110 MW Thermal Power Unit is compared with other options, such as: a thermal power unit with a coal-fueled boiler with combustion in fluidized bed; combined cycle gas turbine plants; hydropower plant, power plants based on solar energy (photovoltaic [PV] systems); wind turbines; and biomass power plants. The assessment methodology comprise a system of stochastic models of uncertainty, enabling decision makers to perform the assessment of various systems, as well as to obtain normalization indexes by using non-numeric (ordinal), non-exact (interval) and non-complete information (NNN-information). Through the analysis of multi-criteria assessment of potential options, the decision-makers are able to evaluate options and select the optimal new power plant capacity
This study evaluates the usability of a U.S. Navy Decision Support System (DSS). The DSS was developed to enhance the performance of tactical decision makers within a Navy Combat Information Center...
Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; ...
Barber, D.S.; Brockman, D.L.; Buxton, L.D. [and others
This document provides information concerning the Integrated Services Management System (ISMS) that was developed for the Laboratories Services Division during the period February 1994 through May 1995. ISMS was developed as a formal method for centralized management of programs within the Division. With minor modifications, this system can be adapted for management of all overhead functions at SNL or for sector level program management. Included in this document are the reasons for the creation of this system as well as the resulting benefits. The ISMS consists of six interlinked processes; Issues Management, Task/Activity Planning, Work Decision, Commitment Management, Process/Project Management, and Performance Assessment. Those processes are described in detail within this document. Additionally, lessons learned and suggestions for future improvements are indicated.
Full Text Available Academically, the research of subject database of tax system aims to set up an efficient, harmonious virtual data application environment. Subject data, in application and management, has been on demand polymerized and autonomously collaborated and has reached a balance between instantaneity and accuracy. This paper defines the connotation and characteristics enterprise informationization, designs a value system of enterprise informationization which is subject database oriented, and builds a model for the import of the subject database of enterprise informationization. Meantime, this paper describes the structure of the subject database based information import model and forges the model’s theoretical basis of subject data import in tax system. Using the model can make an analysis on the information of data warehouse, storage information, and tax information to provide decision support for the tax administrators.
Full Text Available Material handling equipment (MHE is important for every industry because it has an effect on the productivity of manufacturing. Conveyor systems are presently one popular type of MHE. This paper presents an integration of the analytic network process (ANP with the benefits, opportunities, costs and risk (BOCR model in order to select the best conveyor system. The proposed model established a network with four merits, six strategies criteria, and twenty six sub-criteria with four alternatives (present, roller conveyor, chain conveyor, and monorail. The ANP is to determine the relative weights of an evaluative criteria and decision alternatives. Therefore, the final ranking of the alternatives are calculated by synthesizing the score of each alternative under BOCR. The results showed that the best alternative under all five methods is the chain conveyor. These research results can be easily applied, adapted and used to improve performance of selecting the conveyer system in small and medium enterprises through large industries.
Brown, Molly E.
Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.
Blanca Aurora Arce Barboza
Full Text Available Low food supply is a major problem affecting a large percentage of the livestock population in Colombia and is largely associated to inappropriate choice of forage species; and thus not well adapted to the environmental conditions of a specific region. To mitigate this problem, without incurring increasing costs associated to changing environmental conditions, it is possible to match the adaptive capacity of species to the environment in which they grow. A decision support system was developed to select suitable forage species for a given environment. The system is based on the use of existing information about requirements of the species rather than specific experimentation. From the information gathered, a database was generated and implemented on ASP.NET in C # and SQL Server database. This system allows users to search and select pastures and forage species for specific soil and climatic conditions of a particular farm or region, through a user-friendly web platform.
Khong, Peck Chui Betty; Hoi, Shu Yin; Holroyd, Eleanor; Wang, Wenru
Healthcare information technology systems are considered the ideal tool to inculcate evidence-based nursing practices. The wound clinical decision support system was built locally to support nurses to manage pressure ulcer wounds in their daily practice. However, its adoption rate is not optimal. The study's objective was to discover the concepts that informed the RNs' decisions to adopt the wound clinical decision support system as an evidence-based technology in their nursing practice. This was an exploratory, descriptive, and qualitative design using face-to-face interviews, individual interviews, and active participatory observation. A purposive, theoretical sample of 14 RNs was recruited from one of the largest public tertiary hospitals in Singapore after obtaining ethics approval. After consenting, the nurses were interviewed and observed separately. Recruitment stopped when data saturation was reached. All transcribed interview data underwent a concurrent thematic analysis, whereas observational data were content analyzed independently and subsequently triangulated with the interview data. Eight emerging themes were identified, namely, use of the wound clinical decision support system, beliefs in the wound clinical decision support system, influences of the workplace culture, extent of the benefits, professional control over nursing practices, use of knowledge, gut feelings, and emotions (fear, doubt, and frustration). These themes represented the nurses' mental outlook as they made decisions on adopting the wound clinical decision support system in light of the complexities of their roles and workloads. This research has provided insight on the nurses' thoughts regarding their decision to interact with the computer environment in a Singapore context. It captured the nurses' complex thoughts when deciding whether to adopt or reject information technology as they practice in a clinical setting.
McCaughey, Jamie W.; Finnigan, David
Faced with uncertain scientific forecasts of a potential hazard, it is perhaps natural to wait and see. As we wait, uncertainties do decrease, but so do our options to minimise impacts of the hazard. This tradeoff is fundamental to preparing for natural hazards, yet difficult to communicate. Interactive systems gaming is one promising way forward. We are developing in-person interactive games, drawing on role-playing and other table-top scenario exercises in natural hazards, as well as on game-based modeling of complex systems. Our games model an unfolding natural hazard crisis (such as volcanic unrest or an approaching typhoon) as a complex social-physical system. Participants take on the roles of diverse stakeholder groups (including government, scientists, media, farmers, city residents, and others) with differing expertise, responsibilities, and priorities. Interactions among these groups play out in a context of decreasing scientific uncertainty and decreasing options for actions to reduce societal risk. Key design challenges are (1) to engage players without trivialising the real-world context; (2) to provide the right level of guidance for players to navigate the system; and (3) to enable players to face realistic tradeoffs and see realistic consequences of their choices, without feeling frustrated that the game is set up for them to fail. We will first prototype the games with general public and secondary-school participants, then adjust this for specialist groups working in disaster management. We will illustrate participatory systems gaming techniques in our presentation 'A toolkit of systems gaming techniques' in the companion EGU session EOS6: 'Perform! A platform to discuss art & science projects with live presentation'.
Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.
Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally
Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Mawdesley, Michael J.
This work describes the development of a project model centred on the information and knowledge generated and used by managers. It describes a knowledge-based system designed for this purpose. A knowledge acquisition exercise was undertaken to determine the tasks of project managers and the
Volpatti, Mark Christopher
In response to lower funding commitments, many public colleges and universities have elected to incorporate decentralized budgeting systems, one of which is Responsibility Center Management (RCM). As public institutions are becoming more dependent on tuition dollars because state appropriations are declining, deans have an increased responsibility…
In regards to the development of software for decision support for pipeline renewal, most of the attention to date has been paid to the development of asset management models which help an owner decide on which portions of a system to prioritize for needed actions. There has not ...
G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit); B. Wierenga (Berend)
textabstractMarketing management support systems (MMSS) are computer-enabled devices that help marketers to make better decisions. Marketing processes can be quite complex, involving large numbers of variables and mostly outcomes are the results of the actions of many different stakeholders (e.g.,
Full Text Available The paper explores the links between capital relocation and soft locational factors addressing the quality of the business environment and the quality of life within the European Union. System competition is viewed as a competition between countries for the mobile factors capital and labour. The issue of systems competition is topical and insufficiently explored by contemporary literature. The scarcity of scientific papers describing the links between system competition theories and contemporary corporate geography theories, especially of the ones including the analysis of soft location factors, is a challenging aspect, which motivates the choice of this subject. This paper’s primary aim is to deliver an overview of the basic corporate geography conceptions, stressing the importance of soft location factors in today’s competition between systems for the mobile factors capital and labour. The paper further contains an analysis of the correlations between indicators regarding the institutional design of countries as developed by the World Bank (Ease of Doing Business, the Happiness Scale and the latest available data of FDI Stocks for the EU countries (2016. The relevance of such a study is based on the evidence that the contemporary business education relies on an extensive knowledge of the business environment. In the circumstance of similar infrastructural conditions, the main difference between locations is made by soft location factors. Since developed economies are characterised by a high degree of ubiquity of soft factors, the paper concludes that developing and emerging economies should foster the development of their soft location factors.
Rowlands, Bruce; Chappell, Clive
A qualitative study examined 18 small and medium-sized business owners' decision to adopt or reject Australia's new apprenticeship system. Participation was based on three interconnected processes: psychological commitment, financial justification, and operational choice. Contextual elements in the internal and external environment influenced…
McHugh, Erin M.
When families consider investing in their children's education they must weigh the perceived costs against the potential benefits, which becomes increasingly difficult as the cost of higher education continues to rise. Using a family systems approach, this phenomenological study explored the central research question, "How do families…
Macmillan, Alexandra; Davies, Michael; Shrubsole, Clive; Luxford, Naomi; May, Neil; Chiu, Lai Fong; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Bobrova, Yekatherina; Chalabi, Zaid
The UK government has an ambitious goal to reduce carbon emissions from the housing stock through energy efficiency improvements. This single policy goal is a strong driver for change in the housing system, but comes with positive and negative "unintended consequences" across a broad range of outcomes for health, equity and environmental sustainability. The resulting policies are also already experiencing under-performance through a failure to consider housing as a complex system. This research aimed to move from considering disparate objectives of housing policies in isolation to mapping the links between environmental, economic, social and health outcomes as a complex system. We aimed to support a broad range of housing policy stakeholders to improve their understanding of housing as a complex system through a collaborative learning process. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop a qualitative causal theory linking housing, energy and wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were followed by two interactive workshops to develop the model, involving representatives from national and local government, housing industries, non-government organisations, communities and academia. More than 50 stakeholders from 37 organisations participated. The process resulted in a shared understanding of wellbeing as it relates to housing; an agreed set of criteria against which to assess to future policy options; and a comprehensive set of causal loop diagrams describing the housing, energy and wellbeing system. The causal loop diagrams cover seven interconnected themes: community connection and quality of neighbourhoods; energy efficiency and climate change; fuel poverty and indoor temperature; household crowding; housing affordability; land ownership, value and development patterns; and ventilation and indoor air pollution. The collaborative learning process and the model have been useful for shifting the thinking of a wide range of housing stakeholders towards a more
John D. WARBACH
Full Text Available Michigan State University (MSU held a focus group in Detroit, Michigan, USA in 2012 with members of the urban agriculture movement. The session included business persons involved in growing and selling food, members of the health system, community group members and city government. The purpose was to identify the full range of sectors of society involved in the food system, to identify the perceptions of the food system among the city population, test eight sustainability competency areas developed by MSU faculty as concepts and as they related to urban food systems, and to discover what kinds of decision support tools were needed to foster sustainable food systems in Detroit. The focus group session was video and audio recorded, the tapes transcribed and coded to identify common themes and responses to the competency area concepts. The competency areas presented were: ecological integrity, community well-being/social justice, economic vitality, aesthetic quality, civic responsibility, systems interdependence, critical thinking, and personal growth. Participants indicated that they considered sustainability a value that people in urban agriculture shared, but that people struggled with how to move forward toward sustainability. Focus group participants were able to identify some aspect of each of the eight competency areas that they perceived people in urban agriculture, and the broader city resident population already recognized, or engaged in without recognizing that they were doing something that could lead to more sustainable outcomes. However, participants perceived that a sustainable metropolitan food system remains a somewhat elusive goal to achieve for people engaged in pursuing urban agriculture in Detroit due to a negative perception they expressed that many of the city’s population holds for growing food in the city, and in general for goods produced in the city. Information gained from the focus group and subsequent focus groups
Electric power has been traditionally supplied to customers at regulated rates by vertically integrated utilities (VIUs), which own generation, transmission, and distribution systems. However, the regulatory authorities of VIUs are promoting competition in their businesses to lower the price of electric energy. Consequently, in new deregulated circumstances, many suppliers and marketers compete in the generation market, and conflict of interest may often occur over transmission. Therefore, a neutral entity, called an independent system operator (ISO), which operates the power system independently, has been established to give market participants nondiscriminatory access to transmission sectors with a natural monopoly, and to facilitate competition in generation sectors. Several types of ISOs are established at present, with their respective regions and authorities. The ISO receives many requests from market participants to transfer power, and must evaluate the feasibility of their requests under the system's condition. In the near future, regulatory authorities may impose various objectives on the ISOs. Then, based on the regulators' policies, the ISO must determine the optimal schedules from feasible solutions, or change the market participants' requests. In a newly developed power market, market participants will conduct their transactions in order to maximize their profit. The most crucial information in conducting power transactions is price and demand. A direct transaction between suppliers and consumers may become attractive because of its stability of price, while in a power exchange market, gaming and speculation of participants may push up electricity prices considerably. To assist the consumers in making effective decisions, suitable methods for forecasting volatile market price are necessary. This research has been approached from three viewpoints: Firstly, from the system operator's point of view, desirable system operation and power market structure
Lauesen, Linne Marie
of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...
Corominas, Lluís; Larsen, Henrik Fred; Flores-Alsina, Xavier
This paper focuses on the use of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the performance of seventeen control strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). It tackles the importance of using site-specific factors for nutrient enrichment when decision-makers have to select best operating....../or energy savings present an environmental benefit for N&P and P-deficient systems. This is not the case when addressing N-deficient systems for which the use of chemicals (even for improving N removal efficiencies) is not always beneficial for the environment. A sensitivity analysis on using weighting...... of the impact categories is conducted to assess how value choices (policy decisions) may affect the management of WWTPs. For the scenarios with only N-limitation, the LCA-based ranking of the control strategies is sensitive to the choice of weighting factors, whereas this is not the case for N&P or P...
Pitt, Martin; Monks, Thomas; Crowe, Sonya; Vasilakis, Christos
The ever increasing pressures to ensure the most efficient and effective use of limited health service resources will, over time, encourage policy makers to turn to system modelling solutions. Such techniques have been available for decades, but despite ample research which demonstrates potential, their application in health services to date is limited. This article surveys the breadth of approaches available to support delivery and design across many areas and levels of healthcare planning. A case study in emergency stroke care is presented as an exemplar of an impactful application of health system modelling. This is followed by a discussion of the key issues surrounding the application of these methods in health, what barriers need to be overcome to ensure more effective implementation, as well as likely developments in the future. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Ghaley, Bhim Bahadur; Vesterdal, Lars; Porter, John Roy
The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non-marketable a......The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non......-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems...
The complexity of many decision problems of todayâ€™s globalized world requires new innovative solutions that are built upon proven decision support technology and also recent advancements in the area of information and communication technology (ICT) such as Cloud Computing and Mobile Communication. A combination of the cost-effective Cloud Computing approach with extended group decision support system technology bears several interesting unprecedented opportunities for the development of suc...
Martin de Wit
Full Text Available The Sandveld region in the Western Cape is a low rainfall area dominated by agricultural production using groundwater resources. The rise in agricultural production in the Sandveld has led to questions regarding the region's ecological sustainability. We developed a system dynamics model for the Sandveld system which captures land-use change, agricultural production, and groundwater abstraction and recharge. Using this model, we find little evidence that pressures on livelihoods result, either currently or in the immediate future, from ecological feedback effects. The model does indicate that the highest risks are associated with the financial viability of agriculture, in its present form, in the region. With lower margins, a drive towards economies of scale in agricultural production is more likely in the future. This process has had severe implications in some sectors already, with a 39% decrease in the number of potato producers in the Sandveld region between 2003 and 2009. These results highlight that an integrated approach to agricultural, economic and environmental management and planning is needed to capture the economic and ecological complexity and dynamics of the Sandveld system.
Vigil, S.A.; Holter, G.M.
Computer models have been used for almost a decade to model and analyze various aspects of solid waste management Commercially available models exist for estimating the capital and operating costs of landfills, waste-to-energy facilities and compost systems and for optimizing system performance along a single dimension (e.g. cost or transportation distance). An alternative to the use of currently available models is the more flexible macro material flow modeling approach in which a macro scale or regional level approach is taken. Waste materials are tracked through the complete integrated waste management cycle from generation through recycling and reuse, and finally to ultimate disposal. Such an approach has been applied by the authors to two different applications. The STELLA simulation language (for Macintosh computers) was used to model the solid waste management system of Puerto Rico. The model incorporated population projections for all 78 municipalities in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2010, solid waste generation factors, remaining life for the existing landfills, and projected startup time for new facilities. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory has used the SimScript simulation language (for Windows computers) to model the management of solid and hazardous wastes produced during cleanup and remediation activities at the Hanford Nuclear Site
FORSYTHE, JAMES C.; WENNER, CAREN A.
The history of high consequence accidents is rich with events wherein the actions, or inaction, of humans was critical to the sequence of events preceding the accident. Moreover, it has been reported that human error may contribute to 80% of accidents, if not more (dougherty and Fragola, 1988). Within the safety community, this reality is widely recognized and there is a substantially greater awareness of the human contribution to system safety today than has ever existed in the past. Despite these facts, and some measurable reduction in accident rates, when accidents do occur, there is a common lament. No matter how hard we try, we continue to have accidents. Accompanying this lament, there is often bewilderment expressed in statements such as, ''There's no explanation for why he/she did what they did''. It is believed that these statements are a symptom of inadequacies in how they think about humans and their role within technological systems. In particular, while there has never been a greater awareness of human factors, conceptual models of human involvement in engineered systems are often incomplete and in some cases, inaccurate
Hendriks, P.H.J.; Vriens, D.J.
The spatial element, which is omnipresent in data and information relevant to organizations, is much underused in the decision-making processes within organizations. This applies also to decision-making within the domain of Competitive Intelligence. The chapter explores how the CI function may
This paper reports on an efficient approach that has been developed for making rational and defensible decisions among a variety of options (e.g., remedial actions, engineered barriers designs/operational controls, inventory limitations, site investigations and research) for mixed-waste disposal systems, which consist of multiple interacting sites (active, inactive and/or future) with multiple pathways. Such decisions are based on maximizing the satisfaction of identified objectives (including the reliability vis a vis specified criteria), explicitly considering tradeoffs among objectives as well as uncertainties in the consequences of any option
Nur Ilyana Mohd Zukki
Full Text Available Tropical forests are a repository of biodiversity which provides habitats for more than 50% of the earth’s plant and animal species, an important sink for carbon stores which provides many goods and ecosystem services and a critical contributor to livelihoods, mainly of the indigenous groups which are totally dependent on forests. Yet, forests are under pressure. Tropical forests are among the earth’s most threatened ecosystems, particularly threatened by human activities and climate change. Consequently, tropical forests are loosing capacity to provide basic goods and services that are essentials to human livelihood. Hence, every decision involving forest utilization should consider various criteria that are important for sustainable forest management. However, making decision about forest resources management often involves balancing conflicting, inadequate and incompatible values of many users and usage of a resource. One of the most fundamental and difficult task is the effective integration of environmental, economic and social values to achieve and maintain ecologically sustainable development. Therefore, an integrated technology such as an Analytical Hierarchy Process and expert systems is essential to be performed in making decision process for forest resources management because an AHP method is capable to capture both tangible and intangible criteria. This study places emphasis on the development of expert system for forest resources management to assist decision makers to select the best forest resources use based on Malaysian Criteria and Indicators [(MC&I2002].
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication
Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S
A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.
Loukas, A.; Tzabiras, J.; Spiliotopoulos, M.; Kokkinos, K.; Fafoutis, C.; Mylopoulos, N.
The overall objective of this work is the development of a District Information System (DIS) which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of a district day-to-day water management as well as for planning and strategic decisionmaking. The DIS was developed from a GIS-based modeling approach, which integrates a generic crop model and a hydraulic model of the transport/distribution system, using land use maps generated by Landsat TM imagery. The main sub-objectives are: (i) the development of an operational algorithm to retrieve crop evapotranspiration from remote sensing data, (ii) the development of an information system with friendly user interface for the data base, the crop module and the hydraulic module and (iii) the analysis and validation of management scenarios from model simulations predicting the respective behavior. The Lake Karla watershed is used in this study, but the overall methodology could be used as a basis for future analysis elsewhere. Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to derive monthly actual evapotranspiration (ET) values from Landsat TM imagery. Meteorological data from the archives of the Institute for Research and Technology, Thessaly (I.RE.TE.TH) has also been used. The methodology was developed using high quality Landsat TM images during 2007 growing season. Monthly ET values are used as an input to CROPWAT model. Outputs of CROPWAT model are then used as input for WEAP model. The developed scenario is based on the actual situation of the surface irrigation network of the Local Administration of Land Reclamation (LALR) of Pinios for the year of 2007. The DIS is calibrated with observed data of this year and the district parameterization is conducted based on the actual operation of the network. The operation of the surface irrigation network of Pinios LALR is simulated using Technologismiki Works, while the operation of closed pipe irrigation network of Lake Karla LALR is simulated using Watercad. Four
Montero, M.; Moraleda, M.; Claver, F.; Vazquez, C.; Gutierrez, J.
TEMAS is an user-friendly decision aiding computerised system to help in the selection of the best local strategy of restoration when a post-accidental environmental contamination with long lived radionuclides (''137 Cs and ''90 Sr) must be faced TEMAS provides answer for complex scenarios on whichever place of the European Community territory ( urban agricultural and forest) with different specific levels of contamination, uses and dimensions. The initial version was the result of the TEMAS project (Techniques and Management Strategies for Environmental Restoration) supported by the EU during the 4th Framework Program. Some Aspects of the methodology are at present being improved. This document applies to the computerised version 2.1 (VAZ01). (Author)
Alfaro, Jose F.; Miller, Shelie; Johnson, Jeremiah X.; Riolo, Rick R.
Energy planners in regions with low rates of electrification face complex and high-risk challenges in selecting appropriate generating technologies and grid centralization. To better inform such processes, we present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) that facilitates engagement with stakeholders. This approach evaluates long-term plans using the cost of delivered electricity, resource mix, jobs and economic stimulus created within communities, and decentralized generation mix of the system, with results provided in a spatially-resolved format. This approach complements existing electricity planning methods (e.g., Integrated Resource Planning) by offering novel evaluation criteria based on typical stakeholder preferences. We demonstrate the utility of this approach with a case study based on a “blank-slate” scenario, which begins without generation or transmission infrastructure, for the long-term rural renewable energy plans of Liberia, West Africa. We consider five electrification strategies: prioritizing larger populations, deploying large resources, creating jobs, providing economic stimulus, and step-wise cost minimization. Through the case study we demonstrate how this approach can be used to engage stakeholders, supplement more established energy planning tools, and illustrate the effects of stakeholder decisions and preferences on the performance of the system. - Highlights: • An Agent Based Model, BABSTER, for electrification planning is presented. • BABSTER provides a highly engaging spatially resolved interface. • Allows flexible investigation of decision strategies with real-world incentives. • We show that decision strategies directly impact centralization and resource choice. • It is illustrated through the case study of Liberia, West Africa.
De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.
This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)
Lyles, Garry; Flores, Tim; Hundley, Jason; Monk, Timothy; Feldman, Stuart
The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. NASA is working diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond LEO large ]scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decisionmaking framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing FOM-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.
Norrie, S.J.; Fang, L. [Ryerson Polytechnic Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Environmental Applied Science and Management Graduate Program
This paper proposed a framework for the consideration of multiple objectives in the long-term planning of electricity generation systems. The framework was comprised of 3 components: (1) information based on life-cycle inventories of electricity generation technologies; (2) a set of alternative scenarios to be evaluated and ranked using the framework; and (3) stakeholder values for decision objectives. Scenarios were developed to represent a set of future conditions, and values were derived through the use of questionnaires. Planning for electricity generation in Ontario was selected as a test case for the DM framework. Three scenarios were presented: (1) a business as usual scenario characterized by large, central power plants; (2) a mix of central power plants, distributed generation, and advanced conventional fuel technologies; and (3) small-scale distributed and renewable energy sources and aggressive demand-side management. The life-cycle based information from the scenario evaluation was used to estimate the performance of each scenario on the established decision criteria. Results showed that scenario 3 was the closest to achieving the fundamental objectives according to the decision criteria. It was concluded that the DM framework showed that the use of holistic environmental information and preferential information for multiple objectives can be integrated into a framework that openly and consistently evaluates a set of alternative scenarios. 31 refs., 7 tabs., 4 figs.
Full Text Available Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.
Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.
Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.
Full Text Available This paper studies the influence of two types of overconfident behavior, overestimation and overprecision, on decision of capacity recovery when power system’s critical capacity is seriously damaged. A newsvendor model is used to prove that increasing regulatory punishment for electricity shortage and providing subsidy for capacity recovery are conducive measures to calibrate insufficient service level caused by an overconfident manager. The research also finds that the manager’s overprecision behavior both negatively and positively influences the decision of capacity recovery, and a calibration method could motivate manager to recover more capacity by tuning up the ratio of punishment and subsidy. However, the effectiveness of the calibration mentioned above is inevitably weakened due to the less capacity recovery given by an overestimated manager. This research also indicates that the manager should pay close attention to the random disturbance whose distribution peak is left skewed, and correspondingly more capacity recovery should be given to improve the service level of power system during the disruption.
Between 2008 and 2035 global energy demand is expected to grow by 53%. While most industry-level analyses of manufacturing in the United States (U.S.) have traditionally focused on high energy consumers such as the petroleum, chemical, paper, primary metal, and food sectors, the remaining sectors account for the majority of establishments in the U.S. Specifically, of the establishments participating in the Energy Information Administration's Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey in 2006, the non-energy intensive" sectors still consumed 4*109 GJ of energy, i.e., one-quarter of the energy consumed by the manufacturing sectors, which is enough to power 98 million homes for a year. The increasing use of renewable energy sources and the introduction of energy-efficient technologies in manufacturing operations support the advancement towards a cleaner future, but having a good understanding of how the systems and processes function can reduce the environmental burden even further. To facilitate this, methods are developed to model the energy of manufacturing across three hierarchical levels: production equipment, factory operations, and industry; these methods are used to accurately assess the current state and provide effective recommendations to further reduce energy consumption. First, the energy consumption of production equipment is characterized to provide machine operators and product designers with viable methods to estimate the environmental impact of the manufacturing phase of a product. The energy model of production equipment is tested and found to have an average accuracy of 97% for a product requiring machining with a variable material removal rate profile. However, changing the use of production equipment alone will not result in an optimal solution since machines are part of a larger system. Which machines to use, how to schedule production runs while accounting for idle time, the design of the factory layout to facilitate production, and even the
Xiao, Weiyue; Jones, Richard William; Yu, Fei
Intelligent Computer-Aided process planning and decision making for manufacturing systems is a critical subject, that some might argue, has not received the attention it should have from the research community. Despite the progress made in the area of artificial intelligence, there has not been a...
Takizawa, Y.; Fukumoto, A.; Makino, M.; Takiguchi, S.
The objective of the development of an intelligent supervisory control system for next generation plants is enhancement of the operational reliability by applying the recent outcome of artificial intelligence and computer technologies. This system consists of the supervisory control and monitoring for automatic operation, the equipment operation support for historical data management and for test scheduling, the operators' decision making support for accidental plant situations and the human-friendly interface of these support functions. The verification test results showed the validity of the functions realized by this system for the next generation control room. (author)
Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van
This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision
Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn
Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…
HENDRIKS, MMWB; DEBOER, JH; SMILDE, AK; DOORNBOS, DA
Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities
Jonassen, David H.
Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…
Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L
...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...
Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.
The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions
Full Text Available A brain-computer interface (BCI creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This
Liu, Yu-Ting; Pal, Nikhil R; Marathe, Amar R; Wang, Yu-Kai; Lin, Chin-Teng
A brain-computer interface (BCI) creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA) system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF) is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions) and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This conclusion
Rolita, Lisa; Surarso, Bayu; Gernowo, Rahmat
In order to improve airport safety management system (SMS) performance, an evaluation system is required to improve on current shortcomings and maximize safety. This study suggests the integration of the DEMATEL and ANP methods in decision making processes by analyzing causal relations between the relevant criteria and taking effective analysis-based decision. The DEMATEL method builds on the ANP method in identifying the interdependencies between criteria. The input data consists of questionnaire data obtained online and then stored in an online database. Furthermore, the questionnaire data is processed using DEMATEL and ANP methods to obtain the results of determining the relationship between criteria and criteria that need to be evaluated. The study cases on this evaluation system were Adi Sutjipto International Airport, Yogyakarta (JOG); Ahmad Yani International Airport, Semarang (SRG); and Adi Sumarmo International Airport, Surakarta (SOC). The integration grades SMS performance criterion weights in a descending order as follow: safety and destination policy, safety risk management, healthcare, and safety awareness. Sturges' formula classified the results into nine grades. JOG and SMG airports were in grade 8, while SOG airport was in grade 7.
Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D
For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.
Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J
This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Jacobs, Patricia A.
This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...
The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...
Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van
This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...
Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.
This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war
A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions
Cho, Seongkyung; Choi, Seungho; Kim, Hyerim; Song, Jiyeon; Lee, Yoonsup; Sohn, Seohyun
This study was done in order to anticipate the aspect of publicity enhancement on nuclear spent fuel so that it can find the evaluation methods of alternative ways of management which could applied actually and make the decision making system of Publicity Enhancement Committee in advance. In Korea, the nuclear spent fuel is temporarily stored inside of the nuclear facility field, and it is expected that Gori nuclear facility is going to be saturated since 2016 but the solutions are still incomplete. The problem of management of nuclear spent fuel is an important issue in terms of not only the nuclear power policy but also of safe management of the already made nuclear spent fuel. This study has its meaning to draw the evaluation criteria of the management alternatives on nuclear spent fuel which can be applied in Korean case, and to find the necessity of verifying the evaluation of management alternatives through Publicity Enhancement because of different stands according to the interests. As a result, rather than technological engineering safety evaluation, qualitative analysis in terms of social costs, quantitative evaluation in terms of economic costs, this study advises the methods of public hearings and citizen juries which are effective, which makes it meaningful
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa, E-mail: email@example.com [Associacao de Medicina Intensiva Brasileira (AMIB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Irmandade da Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Ferreira, Bruna Cortez [Hospital de Base de Sao Jose do Rio Preto, SP (Brazil)
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
Luiz Henrique Costa Garcia
Full Text Available The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education; British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters; Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
Ruohonen, Toni; Ennejmy, Mohammed
Making reliable and justified operational and strategic decisions is a really challenging task in the health care domain. So far, the decisions have been made based on the experience of managers and staff, or they are evaluated with traditional methods, using inadequate data. As a result of this kind of decision-making process, attempts to improve operations usually have failed or led to only local improvements. Health care organizations have a lot of operational data, in addition to clinical data, which is the key element for making reliable and justified decisions. However, it is progressively problematic to access it and make usage of it. In this paper we discuss about the possibilities how to exploit operational data in the most efficient way in the decision-making process. We'll share our future visions and propose a conceptual framework for automating the decision-making process.
Hernandez, Jorge Luis.
Accidental situations in NPP are of greet concern for operators, the facility, regulatory bodies and the environment. This work proposes a design of intelligent system aimed to assist the operator in the process of decision making when initiator events with higher relative contribution to the reactor core damage occur. The intelligent System uses the results of the pre operational Probabilistic Safety Assessment and the Thermal hydraulic Safety Analyses of the NPP Juragua as source for building its knowledge base. The nucleus of the system is presented as a design of an intelligent hybrid system from the combination of the artificial intelligence techniques: fussy logic and artificial neural networks. The system works with variables from the process of the firsts circuit, second circuit and the containment and it is presented as a model for the integration of safety analyses in the process of decision making by the operator when tackling with accidental situations
Hernandez, Jorge Luis.
Accidental situations in NPP are of greet concern for operators, the facility, regulatory bodies and the environment. This work proposes a design of intelligent system aimed to assist the operator in the process of decision making when initiator events with higher relative contribution to the reactor core damage occur. The intelligent System uses the results of the pre operational Probabilistic Safety Assessment and the Thermal hydraulic Safety Analyses of the NPP Juragua as source for building its knowledge base. The nucleus of the system is presented as a design of an intelligent hybrid system from the combination of the artificial intelligence techniques: fussy logic and artificial neural networks. The system works with variables from the process of the firsts circuit, second circuit and the containment and it is presented as a model for the integration of safety analyses in the process of decision making by the operator when tackling with accidental situations
Cabrera, Daniel; Thomas, Jonathan F; Wiswell, Jeffrey L; Walston, James M; Anderson, Joel R; Hess, Erik P; Bellolio, M Fernanda
Current cognitive sciences describe decision-making using the dual-process theory, where a System 1 is intuitive and a System 2 decision is hypothetico-deductive. We aim to compare the performance of these systems in determining patient acuity, disposition and diagnosis. Prospective observational study of emergency physicians assessing patients in the emergency department of an academic center. Physicians were provided the patient's chief complaint and vital signs and allowed to observe the patient briefly. They were then asked to predict acuity, final disposition (home, intensive care unit (ICU), non-ICU bed) and diagnosis. A patient was classified as sick by the investigators using previously published objective criteria. We obtained 662 observations from 289 patients. For acuity, the observers had a sensitivity of 73.9% (95% CI [67.7-79.5%]), specificity 83.3% (95% CI [79.5-86.7%]), positive predictive value 70.3% (95% CI [64.1-75.9%]) and negative predictive value 85.7% (95% CI [82.0-88.9%]). For final disposition, the observers made a correct prediction in 80.8% (95% CI [76.1-85.0%]) of the cases. For ICU admission, emergency physicians had a sensitivity of 33.9% (95% CI [22.1-47.4%]) and a specificity of 96.9% (95% CI [94.0-98.7%]). The correct diagnosis was made 54% of the time with the limited data available. System 1 decision-making based on limited information had a sensitivity close to 80% for acuity and disposition prediction, but the performance was lower for predicting ICU admission and diagnosis. System 1 decision-making appears insufficient for final decisions in these domains but likely provides a cognitive framework for System 2 decision-making.
This paper reports that the oil and gas business is undergoing a significant restructuring. In order to maintain control of our own destiny and succeed in an increasingly competitive business environment, the industry must set goals which are consistent with its continued success and focus on those goals in every aspect of its strategic management. By applying an approach to decision making which focuses on the achievement of the key goals required for success at every decision point and systematic follow-up, a firm can greatly increase its ability to succeed in the business environment of the future
Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul
, the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence...
Shared decision-making has been called the crux of patient-centred care and identified as a key part of change for improved quality and safety in healthcare. However, it rarely happens, is hard to do and is not taught - for many reasons. Talking with patients about options is not embedded in the attitudes or communication skills training of most healthcare professionals. Information tools such as patient decision aids, personal health records and the Internet will help to shift this state, as will policy that drives patient and public involvement in healthcare delivery and training.
Ryoo, Young; Jang, Moon-soo; Bae, Young-Chul
Intelligent systems have been initiated with the attempt to imitate the human brain. People wish to let machines perform intelligent works. Many techniques of intelligent systems are based on artificial intelligence. According to changing and novel requirements, the advanced intelligent systems cover a wide spectrum: big data processing, intelligent control, advanced robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning. This book focuses on coordinating intelligent systems with highly integrated and foundationally functional components. The book consists of 19 contributions that features social network-based recommender systems, application of fuzzy enforcement, energy visualization, ultrasonic muscular thickness measurement, regional analysis and predictive modeling, analysis of 3D polygon data, blood pressure estimation system, fuzzy human model, fuzzy ultrasonic imaging method, ultrasonic mobile smart technology, pseudo-normal image synthesis, subspace classifier, mobile object tracking, standing-up moti...
Intelligent decision support system for operators of the supply department of oil and gas extracting industry. ... PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH ... abnormal situations, pre-crash sensing, industrial drilling, decision-making support systems. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT
Rooij, M.M.J.W. van; Favela, L.H.; Papafragou, A.; Grodner, D.; Mirman, D.; Trueswell, J.
Dual-processing accounts of reasoning have gained renewed attention in the past decade, particularly in the fields of social judgment, learning, and decision-making under uncertainty. Although the various accounts differ, the common thread is the distinction between two qualitatively different types
Ronald E. McRoberts; R. James Barbour; Krista M. Gebert; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo; et al.
Sustainable management of natural resources requires informed decision making and post-decision assessments of the results of those decisions. Increasingly, both activities rely on analyses of spatial data in the forms of maps and digital data layers. Fortunately, a variety of supporting maps and data layers rapidly are becoming available. Unfortunately, however, user-...
Adida, M; Maurel, M; Kaladjian, A; Fakra, E; Lazerges, P; Da Fonseca, D; Belzeaux, R; Cermolacce, M; Azorin, J-M
dysfunction, previous research assessed decision-making function but indicates conflicting results. Thirteen studies have reported impaired IGT performance in patients with schizophrenia and, in seven reports, no significant differences in IGT performance between patient and healthy control groups were found. Those discrepancies may relate to multiple factors. First, most of the studies included small sample size and negative findings may be due to the large variance of net scores. Second, as suggested by Rodríguez-Sánchez et al., there is a wide disparity in performance by control subjects across studies. Third, intelligence quotient (IQ) score and level of education may be correlated with IGT performance, which may explain IGT performance differences in studies that did not control for educational or IQ score. Fourth, only two studies have systematically controlled for substance use disorder, a potential confounder. Fifth, only two studies assessed the impact of antipsychotic (AP) class on performance. Sixth, to our knowledge, no study assessed the impact of AP dosage on decision-making ability, while AP dose-reduction and dopamine increase, might lead to improvements, in cognitive functions in schizophrenia and in IGT performance in bipolar disorder, respectively. Finally, discrepancies between studies may be related to the heterogeneity of diagnostic groups. Two of the negative studies included schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder while positive studies have generally included only patients with schizophrenia. Nevertheless, some studies that included only patients with schizophrenia failed to find differences between groups. Thus, further research should assess decision-making in schizophrenia by testing a large group of patients with homogeneity of diagnostic, in comparison with a large group of control subjects. Authors should control for IQ or level of education, substance use disorder and smoking status. While it is now accepted that DLPFC defects in
Lugaric, Luka; Krajcar, Slavko
Recognized as implementation actors of operative measures for transition towards a low carbon economy, cities must establish a development roadmap integrating local resources with local energy development plans. A systematic approach does not exist yet and cities develop their plans individually, which is difficult for small and medium sized cities due to limited development capacities. Conventional city planning approaches do not integrate considerations on energy, economy and environment in transition plans in an easily comparable way, yet making decisions with regards to these parameters is vital to determine outcomes of planned developments on future sustainability of the city. The paper presents a framework model based on emergy synthesis which integrates energy, economic and environmental city systems in the decision making process, examining associated theoretical challenges and application limitations. The method is applied on the city of Sisak in Croatia which has developed plans to implement several initiatives geared towards creating a smart energy city. The model enables simulation and assessment of impacts of individual projects targeting the development of a smart energy city on city sustainability expressed through emergy performance, used as a tool for evaluating local development alternatives within the boundary of local resources. - Highlights: • Key concepts of present city development trends towards sustainability are examined. • Emergy synthesis is examined and applied as a tool for policy and decision makers. • Emergy model of a small city is developed, along with submodels for renewable energy sources and buildings. • Simulation of 5 different projects shows impacts on overall city sustainability in a comparable manner. • Increase in emergy sustainability index is confirmed after presumed implementation of simulated projects.
Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S
The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P
The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.
Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de
The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)
The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
El-Sawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J.
This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation
Agung Gita Subakti
Full Text Available In an organization, decision making hold an important role. That is why a decision made by managers should be a final decision that should be done by their subordinates or those who are related with the organization. In the effort to increase the quality of management information system, a research was held in X Resorts and Hotels Bandung to analyze management information system in the relation to decision making especially in Food and Beverage Service Department and recommendation of how to handle the problem occurred. From the questioner with data analyzing technique of spearman rank gained correlation result 0,84, with determination coefficient 71% which means the management information system has 71% level of influence to decision making, meanwhile the rest of the result (29% shows other factors, which also were related with the decision making other than management information system. To solve with the problem, it is recommended that X Resorts and Hotels decrease the level of information product error in management information used and fasten the delivery of provided information.
Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman
In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...
Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.
Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selﬁsh decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efﬁciently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...
Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J
This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.
Benavides Molineros, Julia; Aguirre Ramirez, Nestor
In Colombia, decisions related to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) must be supported by assessment of the risk to biodiversity, human health and agricultural production. Based on this assessment, authorities can make decisions involving authorization or denial of the requested activities. The rationality of the decision-making process is very well established with respect to human health, particularly toxicity and allergenicity, but that is not the case for biodiversity issues. One of the biggest problems in this area is the lack of definition of a decision-making methodology, which leads to decisions made in an intuitive and non-systematic manner. Authorities in the field have recognized the need for a decision-making information system to help solve this situation. A proposal for the basic structure of a decision-making information system oriented to authorities involved in the process is presented. The proposal was developed based on a review of the main existing methodologies for GMO risk assessment and on a case study of the gene flow from GMOs to wild relatives. The structure is presented as a broad entity-relationship model from which the detailed design of the system can be developed. The proposal emphasizes the documentation of the decision protocols and the rationality of use of the information inputs.
Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.
Stevanović, Tatjana; Stanković, Jelena
In contemporary's business environment, successful company must be socially responsible and environmentally conscientious in addition to essential tendency for maximizing profits, because only in this way can it ensure competitiveness in the market. Performance measuring of the airport is a critical management activity, which must be consistent with the goals, strategies and key success factors. Since the decision making is based on facts about considered task and their detailed analysis, the...
Rooij, M.M.J.W. van; Favela, L.H.; Papafragou, A.; Grodner, D.; Mirman, D.; Trueswell, J.
Dual-processing accounts of reasoning have gained renewed attention in the past decade, particularly in the fields of social judgment, learning, and decision-making under uncertainty. Although the various accounts differ, the common thread is the distinction between two qualitatively different types of reasoning: explicit/implicit, rational/affective, fast/slow, etc. Consequently, much research has focused on characterizing the two different processes. Less extensive are the attempts to find ...
Géssica Maria Cambrainha
Full Text Available Abstract Paper aims this paper proposes a model to aid a group of decision makers to establish a portfolio of feasible actions (alternatives that are able to balance water supply-demand strategies. Originality Long periods of water shortages cause problems in semi-arid region of northeast Brazil, which affects different sectors such as food, public health, among others. This problem situation is intensified by population growth. Therefore, this type of decision making is complex, and it needs to be solving by a structured model. Research method The model is based on a problem structuring method (PSM and a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM method. Main findings Due to society and government influences, the proposed model showed appropriate to conduct a robust and well-structured decision making. Implications for theory and practice The main contributions were the study in regions suffering from drought and water scarcity, as well as the combination of PSM and MCDM methods to aid in this problem.
Michael, Nathan; Berns, Karsten; Yamaguchi, Hiroaki
This book describes the latest research accomplishments, innovations, and visions in the field of robotics as presented at the 13th International Conference on Intelligent Autonomous Systems (IAS), held in Padua in July 2014, by leading researchers, engineers, and practitioners from across the world. The contents amply confirm that robots, machines, and systems are rapidly achieving intelligence and autonomy, mastering more and more capabilities such as mobility and manipulation, sensing and perception, reasoning, and decision making. A wide range of research results and applications are covered, and particular attention is paid to the emerging role of autonomous robots and intelligent systems in industrial production, which reflects their maturity and robustness. The contributions have been selected through a rigorous peer-review process and contain many exciting and visionary ideas that will further galvanize the research community, spurring novel research directions. The series of biennial IAS conferences ...
Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel
Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala's role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize "somatic marker" type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an "impulsive," habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn
Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).
The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)
Full Text Available The researchers propose a methodology to share, process, and exchange agricultural information among different applications through a Web service. The Web service will be available online and mobile and can be used as a tool for decision-making. Initially, agricultural regions and cartography of the study area were identified. Subsequently, a simulation model of potential yield of pasture and animal behavior by regions and area, was designed. Finally, a Web service, using Amazon Web Services and REST for exchanging information, was developed. Web services in the cloud, enable interoperability using data, mapping information of agricultural regions, simulation models, and protocols for data transfer, thus making available the prediction results.
Chang, Wen; Liu, Hsueh-Erh; Goopy, Suzanne; Chen, Li-Chin; Chen, Hsiao-Jung; Han, Chin-Yen
Triage classifies and prioritizes patients' care based on the acuity of the illness in emergency departments (EDs). In Taiwan, the five-level Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale (TTAS) computerized system was implemented nationally in 2010. The purpose of this study was to understand which factors affect decision-making practices of triage nurses in the light of the implementation of the new TTAS tool and computerized system. The qualitative data were collected by in-depth interviews. Data saturation was reached with 16 participants. Content analysis was used. The results demonstrated that the factors affecting nurses' decision making in the light of the newly implemented computerized system sit within three main categories: external environmental, patients' health status, and nurses' experiences. This study suggests ensuring the patient's privacy while attending the triage desk, improving the critical thinking of triage nurses, and strengthening the public's understanding of the ED visits. These will make ED triage more efficient.
Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael
The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...
Approximately 10-15% of our diagnostic decisions are faulty and may lead to unfavorable and dangerous outcomes, which could be avoided. These diagnostic errors are mainly caused by cognitive biases in the diagnostic reasoning process.Our medical diagnostic decision-making is based on intuitive "System 1" and analytical "System 2" diagnostic decision-making and can be deviated by unconscious cognitive biases.These deviations can be positively influenced on a systemic and an individual level. For the individual, metacognition (internal withdrawal from the decision-making process) and debiasing strategies, such as verification, falsification and rule out worst-case scenarios, can lead to improved diagnostic decisions making.
Maite Sara Mashego
Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...
The paper discusses the trend in paradigms within decision research, drifting from concepts of decision making in terms of normative models of 'rational decision making, through behavioral models in terms of 'biases' - deviations from rational models, toward models of actual decision making...... behavior, such as the SRK concept, naturalistic decision making, and dynamic decision making.In this evolution, concepts such as decision making, management, and behavioral control merge and a concurrent change in concepts underlying design of systems aiming at control of behavior is visible, from...
Anagnostou, Theodore; Remzi, Mesut; Lykourinas, Michael; Djavan, Bob
The authors are presenting a thorough introduction in Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and their contribution to modern Urologic Oncology. The article covers a description of Artificial Neural Network methodology and points out the differences of Artificial Intelligence to traditional statistic models in terms of serving patients and clinicians, in a different way than current statistical analysis. Since Artificial Intelligence is not yet fully understood by many practicing clinicians, the authors have reviewed a careful selection of articles in order to explore the clinical benefit of Artificial Intelligence applications in modern Urology questions and decision-making. The data are from real patients and reflect attempts to achieve more accurate diagnosis and prognosis, especially in prostate cancer that stands as a good example of difficult decision-making in everyday practice. Experience from current use of Artificial Intelligence is also being discussed, and the authors address future developments as well as potential problems such as medical record quality, precautions in using ANNs or resistance to system use, in an attempt to point out future demands and the need for common standards. The authors conclude that both methods should continue to be used in a complementary manner. ANNs still do not prove always better as to replace standard statistical analysis as the method of choice in interpreting medical data.
Arwin Datumaya Wahyudi Sumari
Full Text Available Quick, accurate, and complete information is highly required for supporting strategically impact decision making in a Military Operation (MO in order to reduce the decision cycle and to minimize the loss. For that purpose, we propose, design and implement a hierarchical Multi Agent-based Information Fusion System for Decision Making Support (MAIFS-DMS. The information fusion is implemented by applying Maximum Score of the Total Sum of Joint Probabilities (MSJP fusion method and is done by a collection of Information Fusion Agents (IFA that forms a multiagent system. MAIFS uses a combination of generalization of Dasarathy and Joint Director’s Laboratory (JDL process models for information fusion mechanism. Information fusion products that are displayed in graphical forms provide comprehensive information regarding the MO area dynamics. By observing the graphics resulted from the information fusion, the commandant will have situational awareness and knowledge in order to make the most accurate strategic decision as fast as possible
In the last 25 years, the fuzzy set theory has been applied in many disciplines such as operations research, management science, control theory, artificial intelligence/expert system, etc. In this volume, methods and applications of crisp, fuzzy and possibilistic multiple objective decision making are first systematically and thoroughly reviewed and classified. This state-of-the-art survey provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, and their characteristics and applicability to analysis of fuzzy and possibilistic programming problems. To realize practical fuzzy modelling, it presents solutions for real-world problems including production/manufacturing, location, logistics, environment management, banking/finance, personnel, marketing, accounting, agriculture economics and data analysis. This book is a guided tour through the literature in the rapidly growing fields of operations research and decision making and includes the most up-to-date bibliographical listing of literature on the topi...
Chang, Luke J; Sanfey, Alan G
Initial explorations in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics have highlighted evidence supporting a potential dissociation between a fast automatic system and a slow deliberative controlled system. Growing research in the role of emotion in decision-making has attempted to draw parallels to the automatic system. This chapter will discuss a theoretical framework for understanding the role of emotion in decision-making and evidence supporting the underlying neural substrates. This chapter applies a conceptual framework to understanding the role of emotion in decision-making, and emphasizes a distinction between expected and immediate emotions. Expected emotions refer to anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced. Immediate emotions, however, are experienced at the time of decision, and either can occur in response to a particular decision or merely as a result of a transitory fluctuation. This chapter will review research from the neuroeconomics literature that supports a neural dissociation between these two classes of emotion and also discuss a few interpretive caveats. Several lines of research including regret, uncertainty, social decision-making, and moral decision-making have yielded evidence consistent with our formulization--expected and immediate emotions may invoke dissociable neural systems. This chapter provides a more specific conceptualization of the mediating role of emotions in the decision-making process, which has important implications for understanding the interacting neural systems underlying the interface between emotion and cognition--a topic of immediate value to anyone investigating topics within the context of social-cognitive-affective-neuroscience.
good decisions. What usually prevents him from implementing those rational decisions is either an overstrong conflict, leading to behavioural paralysis...of Prosocial Behaviour in the group situation. It assumes a typology of people, and attempts to show sequentially how people are influenced in their...COVERED CURRENT SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES TO DECISION MAKING IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS: III. Volume I, Conference Proceedings 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7
Andersen, V.; Andersen, H.B.; Axel, E.; Petersen, T.
A short introduction will be given to the European (ESPRIT II) project, ''IT Support for Emergency Management - ISEM''. The project is aimed at the development of an integrated information system capable of supporting the complex, dynamic, distributed decision making in the management of emergencies. The basic models developed to describe and construct emergency management organisations and their preparedness have been illustrated, and it has been stated that similarities may be found even in emergency situations that originally are of quite different nature. (author)
Pallix, Joan; Dorais, Greg; Penix, John
To achieve NASA's ambitious mission objectives for the future, aircraft and spacecraft will need intelligence to take the correct action in a variety of circumstances. Vehicle intelligence can be defined as the ability to "do the right thing" when faced with a complex decision-making situation. It will be necessary to implement integrated autonomous operations and low-level adaptive flight control technologies to direct actions that enhance the safety and success of complex missions despite component failures, degraded performance, operator errors, and environment uncertainty. This paper will describe the array of technologies required to meet these complex objectives. This includes the integration of high-level reasoning and autonomous capabilities with multiple subsystem controllers for robust performance. Future intelligent systems will use models of the system, its environment, and other intelligent agents with which it interacts. They will also require planners, reasoning engines, and adaptive controllers that can recommend or execute commands enabling the system to respond intelligently. The presentation will also address the development of highly dependable software, which is a key component to ensure the reliability of intelligent systems.
Full Text Available In a globalization scenario, uncertainty and high competitive edge between the companies, every manager needs to make decisions that bring competitive advantage to his/her organization. These decisions are increasingly complex, which demands more rapid and precise information to allow efficient decision-making. It is in this scenario that Information Systems (IS have gained importance in the decision-making process. Yet, many of these IS may not be adequate to the manager’s needs. This study aims to identify the perception of the managers of an Organizational Unit at an oil and derivatives company about the support given by ISs regarding their decision making. To obtain the expected results, a questionnaire based on the critical factors involved in IS quality and directed to the managers of the Organizational Unit. Results of this study will enable professionals responsible for developing ISs, as well as managers and those working with these systems to identify strengths and weaknesses of existing systems.
Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Robbins, Trevor W
Adolescence is characterized by making risky decisions. Early lesion and neuroimaging studies in adults pointed to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and related structures as having a key role in decision-making. More recent studies have fractionated decision-making processes into its various components, including the representation of value, response selection (including inter-temporal choice and cognitive control), associative learning, and affective and social aspects. These different aspects of decision-making have been the focus of investigation in recent studies of the adolescent brain. Evidence points to a dissociation between the relatively slow, linear development of impulse control and response inhibition during adolescence versus the nonlinear development of the reward system, which is often hyper-responsive to rewards in adolescence. This suggests that decision-making in adolescence may be particularly modulated by emotion and social factors, for example, when adolescents are with peers or in other affective ('hot') contexts.
Rosenbloom, Michael H; Schmahmann, Jeremy D; Price, Bruce H
Decision-making is a complex executive function that draws on past experience, present goals, and anticipation of outcome, and which is influenced by prevailing and predicted emotional tone and cultural context. Functional imaging investigations and focal lesion studies identify the orbitofrontal, anterior cingulate, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices as critical to decision-making. The authors review the connections of these prefrontal regions with the neocortex, limbic system, basal ganglia, and cerebellum, highlight current ideas regarding the cognitive processes of decision-making that these networks subserve, and present a novel integrated neuroanatomical model for decision-making. Finally, clinical relevance of this circuitry is illustrated through a discussion of frontotemporal dementia, traumatic brain injury, and sociopathy.
Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.
Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...
Kidd Michael R
Full Text Available Abstract Background Online information retrieval systems have the potential to improve patient care but there are few comparative studies of the impact of online evidence on clinicians' decision-making behaviour in routine clinical work. Methods/design A randomized controlled parallel design is employed to assess the effectiveness of an online evidence retrieval system, Quick Clinical (QC in improving clinical decision-making processes in general practice. Eligible clinicians are randomised either to receive access or not to receive access to QC in their consulting rooms for 12 months. Participants complete pre- and post trial surveys. Two-hundred general practitioners are recruited. Participants must be registered to practice in Australia, have a computer with Internet access in their consulting room and use electronic prescribing. Clinicians planning to retire or move to another practice within 12 months or participating in any other clinical trial involving electronic extraction of prescriptions data are excluded from the study. The primary end-points for the study is clinician acceptance and use of QC and the resulting change in decision-making behaviour. The study will examine prescribing patterns related to frequently prescribed medications where there has been a recent significant shift in recommendations regarding their use based upon new evidence. Secondary outcome measures include self-reported changes in diagnosis, patient education, prescriptions written, investigations and referrals. Discussion A trial under experimental conditions is an effective way of examining the impact of using QC in routine general practice consultations.
Hamker, Fred H
Feature inheritance provides evidence that properties of an invisible target stimulus can be attached to a following mask. We apply a systemslevel model of attention and decision making to explore the influence of memory and feedback connections in feature inheritance. We find that the presence of feedback loops alone is sufficient to account for feature inheritance. Although our simulations do not cover all experimental variations and focus only on the general principle, our result appears of specific interest since the model was designed for a completely different purpose than to explain feature inheritance. We suggest that feedback is an important property in visual perception and provide a description of its mechanism and its role in perception.
Distributed Decision Making and Control is a mathematical treatment of relevant problems in distributed control, decision and multiagent systems, The research reported was prompted by the recent rapid development in large-scale networked and embedded systems and communications. One of the main reasons for the growing complexity in such systems is the dynamics introduced by computation and communication delays. Reliability, predictability, and efficient utilization of processing power and network resources are central issues and the new theory and design methods presented here are needed to analyze and optimize the complex interactions that arise between controllers, plants and networks. The text also helps to meet requirements arising from industrial practice for a more systematic approach to the design of distributed control structures and corresponding information interfaces Theory for coordination of many different control units is closely related to economics and game theory network uses being dictated by...
Forkan, Abdur Rahim Mohammad; Khalil, Ibrahim
In home-based context-aware monitoring patient's real-time data of multiple vital signs (e.g. heart rate, blood pressure) are continuously generated from wearable sensors. The changes in such vital parameters are highly correlated. They are also patient-centric and can be either recurrent or can fluctuate. The objective of this study is to develop an intelligent method for personalized monitoring and clinical decision support through early estimation of patient-specific vital sign values, and prediction of anomalies using the interrelation among multiple vital signs. In this paper, multi-label classification algorithms are applied in classifier design to forecast these values and related abnormalities. We proposed a completely new approach of patient-specific vital sign prediction system using their correlations. The developed technique can guide healthcare professionals to make accurate clinical decisions. Moreover, our model can support many patients with various clinical conditions concurrently by utilizing the power of cloud computing technology. The developed method also reduces the rate of false predictions in remote monitoring centres. In the experimental settings, the statistical features and correlations of six vital signs are formulated as multi-label classification problem. Eight multi-label classification algorithms along with three fundamental machine learning algorithms are used and tested on a public dataset of 85 patients. Different multi-label classification evaluation measures such as Hamming score, F1-micro average, and accuracy are used for interpreting the prediction performance of patient-specific situation classifications. We achieved 90-95% Hamming score values across 24 classifier combinations for 85 different patients used in our experiment. The results are compared with single-label classifiers and without considering the correlations among the vitals. The comparisons show that multi-label method is the best technique for this problem
Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.
To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...
Full Text Available The aim of this article is to show the importance of business intelligence and its growing influence. It also shows when the concept of business intelligence was used for the first time and how it evolved over time. The paper discusses the utility of a business intelligence system in any organization and its contribution to daily activities. Furthermore, we highlight the role and the objectives of business intelligence systems inside an organization and the needs to grow the incomes and reduce the costs, to manage the complexity of the business environment and to cut IT costs so that the organization survives in the current competitive climate. The article contains information about architectural principles of a business intelligence system and how such a system can be achieved.
Full Text Available Scientific holistic medicine is built on holistic medical theory, on therapeutic and ethical principles. The rationale is that the therapist can take the patient into a state of salutogenesis, or existential healing, using his skills and knowledge. But how ever much we want to make therapy a science it remains partly an art, and the more developed the therapist becomes, the more of his/her decisions will be based on intuition, feeling and even inspiration that is more based on love and human concern and other spiritual motivations than on mental reason and rationality in a simple sense of the word. The provocative and paradoxal medieval western concept of the “truth telling clown”, or the eastern concepts of “crazy wisdom” and “holy madness” seems highly relevant here. The problem is how we can ethically justify this kind of highly “irrational” therapeutic behavior in the rational setting of a medical institution. We argue here that holistic therapy has a very high success rate and is doing no harm to the patient, and encourage therapists, psychiatrists, psychologist and other academically trained “helpers” to constantly measure their own success-rate. This paper discusses many of the important factors that influence clinical holistic decision-making. Sexuality could, as many psychoanalysts from Freud to Reich and Searles have believed, be the most healing power that exists and also the most difficult for the mind to comprehend, and thus the most “crazy-wise” tool of therapy.
Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C
After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.
We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.
Leonardo Yuji Tamura
Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.
Malekpour, Shirin; Langeveld, Jeroen; Letema, Sammy; Clemens, François; van Lier, Jules B
This paper introduces the probabilistic evaluation framework, to enable transparent and objective decision-making in technology selection for sanitation solutions in low-income countries. The probabilistic framework recognizes the often poor quality of the available data for evaluations. Within this framework, the evaluations will be done based on the probabilities that the expected outcomes occur in practice, considering the uncertainties in evaluation parameters. Consequently, the outcome of evaluations will not be single point estimates; but there exists a range of possible outcomes. A first trial application of this framework for evaluation of sanitation options in the Nyalenda settlement in Kisumu, Kenya, showed how the range of values that an evaluation parameter may obtain in practice would influence the evaluation outcomes. In addition, as the probabilistic evaluation requires various site-specific data, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of each data set quality on the evaluation outcomes. Based on that, data collection activities could be (re)directed, in a trade-off between the required investments in those activities and the resolution of the decisions that are to be made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bednarek, A.; Close, S.; Curran, K.; Hudson, C.
Addressing contemporary sustainability challenges requires attention to the integration of scientific knowledge into decision-making and deliberation. However, this remains a challenge in practice. We contend that careful stewardship of this process of integration can result in positive, durable outcomes by reconciling the production and use of scientific knowledge, and improve its relevance and utility to decision-makers. We will share lessons learned from a grantmaking program that has addressed this challenge through programmatic innovations, including by supporting staff devoted to an intermediary role. Over the past 13 years, the Lenfest Ocean Program served in a boundary spanning role by integrating decision-makers into the scoping and outreach of program supported scientific research grants. Program staff engage with decision-makers and influencers to identify policy-relevant research questions and approaches, ensuring that the research direction addresses users' needs. As research progresses, the staff monitor the grant's progress to improve the match between the research and user needs. The process is resource-intensive, however, and raises interesting questions about the role and development of this kind of specialist within different kinds of institutions, including funding agencies. We suggest that nurturing this role as a practice and profession could ultimately help the scientific community more efficiently respond to sustainability challenges.
Du, Junping; Li, Hongbo; Zhang, Weicun; CISC’15
This book presents selected research papers from the 2015 Chinese Intelligent Systems Conference (CISC’15), held in Yangzhou, China. The topics covered include multi-agent systems, evolutionary computation, artificial intelligence, complex systems, computation intelligence and soft computing, intelligent control, advanced control technology, robotics and applications, intelligent information processing, iterative learning control, and machine learning. Engineers and researchers from academia, industry and the government can gain valuable insights into solutions combining ideas from multiple disciplines in the field of intelligent systems.
Shershakov, V.M.; Trakhtengerts, E.A.
This paper considers methods used for creating expert systems capable of generating solutions, methods permitting evaluation of the decisions taken, the selection of the best methods and ways to coordinate decisions among groups of specialists. (Author)
Carapinha, João L; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Desta, Abayneh Tamer; Wagner, Anita K
Medicine benefits through health insurance programs have the potential to improve access to and promote more effective use of affordable, high quality medicines. Information is lacking about medicine benefits provided by health insurance programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. We describe the structure of medicine benefits and data routinely available for decision-making in 33 health insurance programs in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. Most programs surveyed were private, for profit schemes covering voluntary enrollees, mostly in urban areas. Almost all provide both inpatient and outpatient medicine benefits, with members sharing the cost of medicines in all programs. Some programs use strategies that are common in high-income countries to manage the medicine benefits, such as formularies, generics policies, reimbursement limits, or price negotiation. Basic data to monitor performance in delivering medicine benefits are available in most programs, but key data elements and the resources needed to generate useful management information from the available data are typically missing. Many questions remain unanswered about the design, implementation, and effects of specific medicines policies in the emerging and expanding health insurance programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. These include questions about the most effective medicines policy choices, given different corporate and organizational structures and resources; impacts of specific benefit designs on quality and affordability of care and health outcomes; and ways to facilitate use of routine data for monitoring. Technical capacity building, strong government commitment, and international donor support will be needed to realize the benefits of medicines coverage in emerging and expanding health insurance programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ellen, Moriah E; Léon, Grégory; Bouchard, Gisèle; Ouimet, Mathieu; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Lavis, John N
Mobilizing research evidence for daily decision-making is challenging for health system decision-makers. In a previous qualitative paper, we showed the current mix of supports that Canadian health-care organizations have in place and the ones that are perceived to be helpful to facilitate the use of research evidence in health system decision-making. Factors influencing the implementation of such supports remain poorly described in the literature. Identifying the barriers to and facilitators of different interventions is essential for implementation of effective, context-specific, supports for evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM) in health systems. The purpose of this study was to identify (a) barriers and facilitators to implementing supports for EIDM in Canadian health-care organizations, (b) views about emerging development of supports for EIDM, and (c) views about the priorities to bridge the gaps in the current mix of supports that these organizations have in place. This qualitative study was conducted in three types of health-care organizations (regional health authorities, hospitals, and primary care practices) in two Canadian provinces (Ontario and Quebec). Fifty-seven in-depth semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with senior managers, library managers, and knowledge brokers from health-care organizations that have already undertaken strategic initiatives in knowledge translation. The interviews were taped, transcribed, and then analyzed thematically using NVivo 9 qualitative data analysis software. Limited resources (i.e., money or staff), time constraints, and negative attitudes (or resistance) toward change were the most frequently identified barriers to implementing supports for EIDM. Genuine interest from health system decision-makers, notably their willingness to invest money and resources and to create a knowledge translation culture over time in health-care organizations, was the most frequently identified facilitator to
Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.
Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen
Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.
Middleton, A.; Macdonald, E. [GE Digital Energy, Markham, ON (Canada); Schreiner, Z. [Intelligent Process Solutions GmbH, Lindau (Germany); Bizjak, J. [Elektro Ljubljana d.d., Ljubljana (Slovenia)
Network owners/operators from around the world have moved from electromechanical products to intelligent electronic devices (IEDs). Most networks have a multi-generation technology mix because protection assets have a normal application lifespan of between 10 and 40 years. Associated data capture and maintenance management regimes have therefore moved from paper based into digitized media, creating a significant increase in the volume of acquired data, such that there is now a mix of paper and digitized storage. Data is rarely consolidated or used for decision making in asset management processes once testing is completed, having a major impact on overall power system reliability. This paper presented the concept of intelligent operative maintenance management, now becoming more recognized in the industry. The concept was described as the management of operational data, resulting actions and responses, wherever and by whoever they are needed, without any additional overhead. The paper discussed new techniques of testing as well as planning and operative maintenance. The practical benefits of the new system were also presented, with particular reference to central management; simplification of routine protocols; secondary testing; and reduced cost of data handling. It was concluded that the main benefit from all of the techniques discussed in this paper is that experienced expert test engineers can focus more time upon making good, critical decisions to ensure that utilities maximize their customer service and safety regimes. 13 refs., 7 figs.
.... The separation of psychology into sub-disciplines or paradigms that don't talk to one another. 3. The failure to distinguish between technical and common language usage when dealing with concepts such as decision making and command...
Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.
Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.
Decisions are made according to a complex cognitive and emotional evaluation of the situation. The aim of the paper is to examine the effect of mood on risky investment decision making by using a mood induction procedure. The paper investigates how happy and sad mood affects risky investment decision making and whether there is a difference between the perception of fix investments and monetary investments. The analysis has been conducted focusing on individual investment decisions. Data for ...
rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal
Kuhns, L.R.; Thornbury, J.
The authors present a collection of clinical problems, organized by organ system and disease. This book demonstrates the relative advantages and disadvantages by means of a formula for disease prevalence and the sensitivity and specificity of the tests used. The gold standard for diagnosis fo each disease is included. Relative costs, radiation dosimetry, and risks are featured
Rilling, James K; Sanfey, Alan G
Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory setting, and a variety of neuroscience methods have been used to probe the underlying neural systems. This approach is informing our knowledge of the neural mechanisms that support decisions about trust, reciprocity, altruism, fairness, revenge, social punishment, social norm conformity, social learning, and competition. Neural systems involved in reward and reinforcement, pain and punishment, mentalizing, delaying gratification, and emotion regulation are commonly recruited for social decisions. This review also highlights the role of the prefrontal cortex in prudent social decision-making, at least when social environments are relatively stable. In addition, recent progress has been made in understanding the neural bases of individual variation in social decision-making.
Homberg, Judith R
Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Benedetto, Umberto; Raja, Shahzad G
The effectiveness of the routine retrosternal placement of a gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponge (GICS) implant before sternotomy closure is currently a matter of some controversy. We aimed to develop a scoring system to guide decision making for the use of GICS to prevent deep sternal wound infection. Fast backward elimination on predictors, including GICS, was performed using the Lawless and Singhal method. The scoring system was reported as a partial nomogram that can be used to manually obtain predicted individual risk of deep sternal wound infection from the regression model. Bootstrapping validation of the regression models was performed. The final populations consisted of 8750 adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery through full sternotomy during the study period. A total of 329 patients (3.8%) received GICS implant. The overall incidence of deep sternal wound infection was lower among patients who received GICS implant (0.6%) than patients who did not (2.01%) (P=.02). A nomogram to predict the individual risk for deep sternal wound infection was developed that included the use of GICS. Bootstrapping validation confirmed a good discriminative power of the models. The scoring system provides an impartial assessment of the decision-making process for clinicians to establish if GICS implant is effective in reducing the risk for deep sternal wound infection in individual patients undergoing cardiac surgery through full sternotomy. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.
Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults’ higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making “traits”—including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants’ greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults. PMID:24040999
Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J; Weber, Elke U
Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults' higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making "traits"--including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants' greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults.
The coming bottleneck to be overcome in the era of the distributed and open-architectured environment will be the establishment of the rational design and coordination of the total system where multiple decision makers, problem solvers and automated machinery components coexist interacting with each other. In such an environment, they are not achieving some absolute standard of performance with unlimited amounts of resources nor with simple algorithms, but is doing as well as possible given what resources one has. In this article, we focus on the potentials of decision theory as a tool for tackling with the limited rationality under resource boundedness. First, the bottlenecks for establishing the organized and distributed decision making are summarized, and the importance of the formalization of decision activities of intelligent agents is stressed to establish an efficient and effective cooperation by distributed and organized decision making and/or problem solving. Some of the practical systems developed based on such a principle are reviewed briefly with respect to the real-time man-machine collaboration and the cooperative computational framework for the intelligent mobile robots. (author)
Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq
The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.
This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...
García, Elena; Rodríguez González, Sara; de Paz Santana, Juan F.; Bajo Pérez, Javier
This paper presents an adaptive architecture that allows centralized control of public lighting and intelligent management, in order to economise on lighting and maintain maximum comfort status of the illuminated areas. To carry out this management, architecture merges various techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) and statistics such as artificial neural networks (ANN), multi-agent systems (MAS), EM algorithm, methods based on ANOVA and a Service Oriented Aproach (SOA). It performs optim...
Jain, L C; Adelaide, Australia University of
This book on hybrid intelligent engineering systems is unique, in the sense that it presents the integration of expert systems, neural networks, fuzzy systems, genetic algorithms, and chaos engineering. It shows that these new techniques enhance the capabilities of one another. A number of hybrid systems for solving engineering problems are presented.
Chang, L.J.; Sanfey, A.G.
PURPOSE: Initial explorations in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics have highlighted evidence supporting a potential dissociation between a fast automatic system and a slow deliberative controlled system. Growing research in the role of emotion in decision-making has attempted to draw parallels
The field of artificial intelligence (Al) has generated many useful ideas and techniques that can be integrated into the design of control systems. It is believed and, for special cases, has been demonstrated, that integration of Al into control systems would provide the necessary tools for solving many of the complex problems that present control techniques and Al algorithms are unable to do, individually. However, this integration requires the development of basic understanding and new fundamentals to provide scientific bases for achievement of its potential. This book presents an overview of some of the latest research studies in the area of intelligent control systems. These papers present techniques for formulation of intelligent control, and development of the rule-based control systems. Papers present applications of control systems in nuclear power plants and HVAC systems
Full Text Available Humans demonstrate an inherent bias towards making maladaptive decisions, as shown by a phenomenon known as the gambler's fallacy (GF. The GF has been traditionally considered as a heuristic bias supported by the fast and automatic intuition system, which can be overcome by the reasoning system. The present study examined an intriguing hypothesis, based on emerging evidence from neuroscience research, that the GF might be attributed to a weak affective but strong cognitive decision making mechanism. With data from a large sample of college students, we found that individuals' use of the GF strategy was positively correlated with their general intelligence and executive function, such as working memory and conflict resolution, but negatively correlated with their affective decision making capacities, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task. Our result provides a novel insight into the mechanisms underlying the GF, which highlights the significant role of affective mechanisms in adaptive decision-making.
Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar
Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.
Iuchi, M; Okawara, T; Tsuchiya, T [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan); Konakayama, A [Tokai Univ., Tokyo (Japan)
Inquiries are made to consumers (monitors) who own a photovoltaic power generation system at their houses, and their replies are analyzed for isolating the factors involving the purchase of this domestic power generating system. A large part of the monitors are 40-50 years old males in the relatively high income bracket. They are very interested in problems of global environments, resources, and energy, and are inclined to assume value-consciousness and life-style which encourage them to love health and nature, participation in social functions, and decision-making. The need for the protection of global environments occupies more than 90% of the reasons for their adoption of photovoltaic power generation. The monitors strongly feel, however, that they paid very much for the apparatus although they were granted some subsidies. As for motives for their acquisition of the system, their answers are categorized into four groups according to their responses as to whether (or not) they expect economic merits though dependent on future development and whether (or not) they accept the current energy policies. The result shows that some monitors think like average citizens. 17 refs., 22 figs., 11 tabs.
Full Text Available Chiara Marzorati,1,2 Gabriella Pravettoni2,3 1Foundations of the Life Sciences, Bioethics and Cognitive Science, European School of Molecular Medicine (SEMM, 2Applied Research Division for Cognitive and Psychological Science, European Institute of Oncology, 3Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, Milan, Italy Abstract: In the last 10 years, value has played a key role in the health care system. In this concept, innovations in medical practice and the increasing importance of patient centeredness have contributed to draw the attention of the medical community. Nonetheless, a large consensus on the meaning of “value” is still lacking: patients, physicians, policy makers, and other health care professionals have different ideas on which component of value may play a prominent role. Yet, shared clinical decision-making and patient empowerment have been recognized as fundamental features of the concept of value. Different paradigms of health care system embrace different meanings of value, and the absence of common and widely accepted definition does not help to identify a unique model of care in health care system. Our aim is to provide an overview of those paradigms that have considered value as a key theoretical concept and to investigate how the presence of value can influence the medical practice. This article may contribute to draw attention toward patients and propose a possible link between health care system based on “value” and new paradigms such as patient-centered system (PCS, patient empowerment, and P5 medicine, in order to create a predictive, personalized, preventive, participatory, and psycho-cognitive model to treat patients. Indeed, patient empowerment, value-based system, and P5 medicine seem to shed light on different aspects of a PCS, and this allows a better understanding of people under care. Keywords: health care system, value, value-based medicine, patient empowerment, clinical decision-making
Overø, Helene Martine; Larsen, Allan; Røpke, Stefan
is to enhance the efficiency and lower the environmental impact in freight transport. In this paper, a pilot project involving real-time waste collection at a Danish waste collection company is described, and a solution approach is proposed. The problem corresponds to the dynamic version of the waste collection......The Danish innovation project entitled “Intelligent Freight Transport Systems” aims at developing prototype systems integrating public intelligent transport systems (ITS) with the technology in vehicles and equipment as well as the IT-systems at various transport companies. The objective...
In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...
Phillips, Susan D.; And Others
Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)
Full Text Available of a mine-wide continuous closure monitoring system. A RMT remote reading telltale system was modified to operate as a closure system and installed at Mponeng Mine. Unfortunately, this system did not succeed in collecting data from a large number...
Mohamad, Shahriari; Aliandrina, Dessy; Feng, Yan
The aim of this paper was to identify human errors in decision making process. The study was focused on a research question such as: what could be the human error as a potential of decision failure in evaluation of the alternatives in the process of decision making. Two case studies were selected from the literature and analyzed to find the human errors contribute to decision fail. Then the analysis of human errors was linked with mental models in evaluation of alternative step. The results o...
Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)
The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that
Huynh, K.T.; Grall, A.; Bérenguer, C.
Seeking condition indices characterizing the health state of a system is a key problem in condition-based maintenance. For this purpose, diagnostic and prognostic models have been unceasingly developed and improved over the past few decades; nevertheless none of them explains thoroughly the impacts of such indices on the effectiveness of maintenance operations. As a complement to these efforts, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of some well-known diagnostic and prognostic indices for maintenance decision-making. The study is based on a system subject to competing risks due to multiple crack paths. A periodic inspection scheme is used to monitor the system health state. Each inspection returns the perfect diagnostic information: the number of cracks, corresponding crack sizes, and the system failure/working state. Based on this information, two kinds of prognostic condition indices are predicted: the average value and probability law of the system residual useful life. The associated condition-based maintenance strategies and cost models are then developed and compared with the ones whose maintenance decisions are based on diagnostic condition indices. The comparison results allow us to conclude on the performance and on the robustness of these strategies, hence giving some suggestions on the choice of reliable condition indices for maintenance decision-making. - Highlights: • Developing a new and generic degradation and failure model. • Synthesizing diagnostic and prognostic condition indices on the basis of the developed degradation and failure model. • Building diagnosis and prognosis-based maintenance strategies, and developing the associated cost models. • Assessing the performance and robustness of the considered strategies to find out reliable indices.
An, Tingyu; Watanabe, tsunami
Nowadays, with the rapid development of information society, decision-making problems become more and more complicated especially in large scale systems such as infrastructure, environmental and industrial fields, which are usually accompanied by psychological competition between involved parties in a complicated, uncertain and dynamic situation. From a holistic perspective of system, a specific decision-making method which is described as game-chain-based decision making has been proposed in...
The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures affective decision making and has revealed decision making impairments across a wide range of eating disorders. This study aimed to investigate affective decision making in severely obese individuals.
Naruse, Makoto; Nomura, Wataru; Ohtsu, Motoichi; Aono, Masashi; Sonnefraud, Yannick; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Kim, Song-Ju
Optical near-field interactions between nanostructured matters, such as quantum dots, result in unidirectional optical excitation transfer when energy dissipation is induced. This results in versatile spatiotemporal dynamics of the optical excitation, which can be controlled by engineering the dissipation processes and exploited to realize intelligent capabilities such as solution searching and decision making. Here, we experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve a decision making problem on the basis of optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions by using colloidal quantum dots of different sizes, formed on a geometry-controlled substrate. We characterize the energy transfer behavior due to multiple control light patterns and experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve the multi-armed bandit problem. Our work makes a decisive step towards the practical design of nanophotonic systems capable of efficient decision making, one of the most important intellectual attributes of the human brain.
Naruse, Makoto, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Photonic Network Research Institute, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, 4-2-1 Nukui-kita, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 (Japan); Nomura, Wataru; Ohtsu, Motoichi [Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Systems, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 2-11-16 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan); Aono, Masashi [Earth-Life Science Institute, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguru-ku, Tokyo 152-8550 (Japan); PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi-shi, Saitama 332-0012 (Japan); Sonnefraud, Yannick; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge [Université Grenoble Alpes, Inst. NEEL, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, Inst. NEEL, F-38042 Grenoble (France); Kim, Song-Ju [WPI Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics, National Institute for Materials Science, 1-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0044 (Japan)
Optical near-field interactions between nanostructured matters, such as quantum dots, result in unidirectional optical excitation transfer when energy dissipation is induced. This results in versatile spatiotemporal dynamics of the optical excitation, which can be controlled by engineering the dissipation processes and exploited to realize intelligent capabilities such as solution searching and decision making. Here, we experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve a decision making problem on the basis of optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions by using colloidal quantum dots of different sizes, formed on a geometry-controlled substrate. We characterize the energy transfer behavior due to multiple control light patterns and experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve the multi-armed bandit problem. Our work makes a decisive step towards the practical design of nanophotonic systems capable of efficient decision making, one of the most important intellectual attributes of the human brain.
Aggarwal, R.; Johns, A.
The reliable operation of large power systems with small stability margins is highly dependent on control systems and protection devices. Progress in the field of microprocessor systems and demanding requirements in respect of the performance of protective relays are the reasons for digital device applications to power system protection. The superiority of numeric protection over its analogue alternatives is attributed to such factors as accurate extraction of the fundamental voltage and current components through filtering, functional benefits resulting from multi-processor design and extensive self-monitoring, etc. However, all these reasons have not led to a major impact on speed, sensitivity and selectivity of primary protective relays, and the gains are only marginal; this is so because conventional digital relays still rely on deterministic signal models and a heuristic approach for decision making, so that only a fraction of the information contained within voltage and current signals as well as knowledge about the plant to be protected is used. The performance of digital relays may be substantially improved if the decision making is based on elements of artificial intelligence (AI). (Author)
In case of a nuclear accident or a threat of a release, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) is responsible for advising and informing the Government, other authorities and the public. The institute's experts are supported by a newly developed, small computerised system. Some components of the system are: a simple model for atmospheric dispersion and dose predictions; databases including maps, nuclides, instruments and facilities to store and handle measured values; on-line connection to nationwide system of automatic measuring stations; a number of data display facilities; and computer based handbooks. Most software for the system is written for the MS Windows environment. (author)
Westervelt, Robert; Klein, William; Kroupa, Michael; Olsson, Eric; Rothrock, Rick
Vista Control Systems, Inc. has developed a portable system for intelligent accelerator control. The design is general in scope and is thus configurable to a wide range of accelerator facilities and control problems. The control system employs a multi-layer organization in which knowledge-based decision making is used to dynamically configure lower level optimization and control algorithms
Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Maes, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst
Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their
Yap, Glenn A; Platonova, Elena A; Musa, Philip F
An exploratory study used Ansoff's strategic planning model as a framework to assess perceived effectiveness of information systems in supporting strategic business plan development at Air Force medical treatment facilities (MTFs). Results showed information systems were most effective in supporting historical trend analysis, strategic business plans appeared to be a balance of operational and strategic plans, and facilities perceived a greater need for new clinical, vice administrative, information systems to support strategic planning processes. Administrators believed information systems should not be developed at the local level and perceived information systems have the greatest impact on improving clinical quality outcomes, followed by ability to deliver cost effective care and finally, ability to increase market share.
Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.
We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia
Presented is an outline of a college course, "Education in American Society," that focused on teaching students rational decision-making skills while examining current issues in American Education. The outline is followed by student comments, reactions, and evaluations of the course. (JMD)
Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)
Full Text Available One of the leading descriptive theories of decision-making under risk, Tversky & Kahneman's Prospect theory, reveals that normative explanation of decisionmaking, based only on principle of maximizing outcomes expected utility, is unsustainable. It also underlines the effect of alternative factors on decision-making. Framing effect relates to an influence that verbal formulation of outcomes has on choosing between certain and risky outcomes; in negative frame people tend to be risk seeking, whereas in positive frame people express risk averse tendencies. Individual decisions are not based on objective probabilities of outcomes, but on subjective probabilities that depend on outcome desirability. Unrealistically pessimistic subjects assign lower probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes, while unrealistically optimistic subjects assign higher probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes. Experiment was conducted in order to test the presumption that there's a relation between unrealistic optimism and decision-making under risk. We expected optimists to be risk seeking, and pessimist to be risk averse. We also expected such cognitive tendencies, if they should become manifest, to be framing effect resistant. Unrealistic optimism scale was applied, followed by the questionnaire composed of tasks of decision-making under risk. Results within the whole sample, and results of afterwards extracted groups of pessimists and optimists both revealed dominant risk seeking tendency that is resistant to the influence of subjective probabilities as well as to the influence of frame in which the outcome is presented.
de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique
If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...
Reports that the development of command-and-con trol systems in support of decision making and action taking has been accomplished by military...methods applicable to management systems. Concludes that the command-and-control type system for top management decision making is a man-machine system having as its core an on going, dynamic operation. (Author)
Magliocca, Nicholas R; Brown, Daniel G; Ellis, Erle C
Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.
Nicholas R Magliocca
Full Text Available Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model
Johnson, Claire E; Chong, Jeffrey C; Wilkinson, Anne; Hayes, Barbara; Tait, Sonia; Waldron, Nicholas
Advance cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) discussions and decision-making are not routine clinical practice in the hospital setting. Frail older patients may be at risk of non-beneficial CPR. To assess the utility and safety of two interventions to increase CPR decision-making, documentation and communication for hospitalised older patients. A pre-post study tested two interventions: (i) standard ward-based education forums with CPR content; and (ii) a combined, two-pronged strategy with 'Goals of Patient Care' (GoPC) system change and a structured video-based workshop; against usual practice (i.e. no formal training). Participants were a random sample of patients in a hospital rehabilitation unit. The outcomes were the proportion of patients documented as: (i) not for resuscitation (NFR); and (ii) eligible for rapid response team (RRT) calls, and rates of documented discussions with the patient, family and carer. When compared with usual practice, patients were more likely to be documented as NFR following the two-pronged intervention (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 6.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0; 13.6). Documentation of discussions with patients was also more likely (aOR: 3.3, 95% CI:1.8; 6.2). Characteristics of patients documented NFR were similar between the phases, but were more likely for RRT calls following Phase 3 (P 0.03). An increase in advance CPR decisions occurred following GoPC system change with education. This appears safe as NFR patients had the same level of frailty between phases but were more likely to be eligible for RRT review. Increased documentation of discussions suggests routine use of the GoPC form may improve communication with patients about their care. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.
Balancing the polarized notions of quality and quantity of service and care is a challenge for the 21st century health and social service system. The expectation of transparent decision making at both the policy and the practice level of case management has forced practitioners to seek guidance in ethical decision making. Case management, as a system, has potential to lead this new practice approach by incorporating the principles of ethical decision making in planning and coordinating care. A recent case study of ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context offers some insight and learning and may help inform future practice.
Janknegt, Robert; Scott, Mike; Mairs, Jill; Timoney, Mark; McElnay, James; Brenninkmeijer, Rob
Drug selection should be a rational process that embraces the principles of evidence-based medicine. However, many factors may affect the choice of agent. It is against this background that the System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) process for rational drug-selection was developed. This article describes how the information on which the SOJA process is based, was researched and processed.
Peng, Hsinyi; Chuang, Po-Ya; Hwang, Gwo-Jen; Chu, Hui-Chun; Wu, Ting-Ting; Huang, Shu-Xian
Researchers have conducted various studies on applying wireless communication and ubiquitous computing technologies to education, so that the technologies can provide learners and educators with more active and adaptive support. This study proposes a Ubiquitous Performance-support System (UPSS) that can facilitate the seamless use of powerful new…