Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1984-10-01

A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

2017-01-01

The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary....... The main focus is here directed on RBI for offshore facilities subject to fatigue damages. New ideas and methodical frameworks in the area of robustness and resilience modeling of structural systems are then introduced, and it is outlined how these may adequately be utilized to enhance Structural Integrity...

Simulation analysis for integrated evaluation of technical and commercial risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutleber, D.S.; Heiberger, E.M.; Morris, T.D.

1995-01-01

Decisions to invest in oil- and gasfield acquisitions or participating interests often are based on the perceived ability to enhance the economic value of the underlying asset. A multidisciplinary approach integrating reservoir engineering, operations and drilling, and deal structuring with Monte Carlo simulation modeling can overcome weaknesses of deterministic analysis and significantly enhance investment decisions. This paper discusses the use of spreadsheets and Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic outcomes for key technical and economic parameters for ultimate identification of the economic volatility and value of potential deal concepts for a significant opportunity. The approach differs from a simple risk analysis for an individual well by incorporating detailed, full-field simulations that vary the reservoir parameters, capital and operating cost assumptions, and schedules on timing in the framework of various deal structures

Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

2017-09-01

While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

2011-01-01

Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

Diagnosis and proposal for an integrated risk management en el Valle de Aburra: red risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aristizabal, Edier; Vargas, Richard

2008-01-01

From the analysis of the organizational situation of different institutions of the Aburra Valley oriented to reduce disasters and emergencies of natural and anthropological origin, a system for the prevention, relief and recovery, Area metropolitana del Valle de Aburra, environmental authority and planning institution, has made to the region a pro pose which try to integrate all governmental and private organizations through an integral risk management, denominated: The Regional Risk Management Network in the Aburra Valley, Risk Network. Risk Network is an open organizational system of inter institutional character to direct and co-ordinate policies and actions of analysis and risk reduction, as well as the preparation and execution of the response and recovery of disaster and emergencies. in the Aburra Valley. Two are the strategic instruments of the Network: The Risk Management Regional Plan in the Aburra Valley, and the Integrated Information System which was designed to support the different management processes of the Network.

Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

2015-12-01

This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonkinson, J.A.

1994-01-01

The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable

Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1999-01-01

This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Science.gov (United States)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

Science.gov (United States)

Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

2016-02-01

The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources.

A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

Managing IT Integration Risk in Acquisitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsson, Stefan; Kettinger, William J.

2016-01-01

The article discusses a framework for evaluating risk of information technology (IT) integration in acquisitions. Topics include the use of the experience of serial acquirer Trelleborg AB to show the merits of the framework for managing the risk and to determine low-risk acquisitions......, the importance of managing IT integration risk, and various risk areas for acquisition IT integration....

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Escuder-Bueno

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Integral risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

1991-01-01

The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

Systamatic approach to integration of a human reliability analysis into a NPP probabalistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fragola, J.R.

1984-01-01

This chapter describes the human reliability analysis tasks which were employed in the evaluation of the overall probability of an internal flood sequence and its consequences in terms of disabling vulnerable risk significant equipment. Topics considered include the problem familiarization process, the identification and classification of key human interactions, a human interaction review of potential initiators, a maintenance and operations review, human interaction identification, quantification model selection, the definition of operator-induced sequences, the quantification of specific human interactions, skill- and rule-based interactions, knowledge-based interactions, and the incorporation of human interaction-related events into the event tree structure. It is concluded that an integrated approach to the analysis of human interaction within the context of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is feasible

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LOBER, R.W.

2002-01-01

Risk assessment and environmental impact analysis at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State has made significant progress in refining the strategy for using risk analysis to support closing of several hundred waste sites plus 149 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site. A Single-Shell Tank System Closure Work Plan outlines the current basis for closing the single-shell tank systems. An analogous site approach has been developed to address closure of aggregated groups of similar waste sites. Because of the complexity, decision time frames, proximity of non-tank farm waste sites to tank farms, scale, and regulatory considerations, various projects are providing integrated assessments to support risk analyses and decision-making. Projects and the tools that are being developed and applied at Hanford to support retrieval and cleanup decisions include: (1) Life Cycle Model (LCM) and Risk Receptor Model (RRM)--A site-level set of tools to support strategic analyses through scoping level risk management to assess different alternatives and options for tank closure. (2) Systems Assessment Capability for Integrated Groundwater Nadose Zone (SAC) and the Site-Wide Groundwater Model (SWGM)--A site-wide groundwater modeling system coupled with a risk-based uncertainty analysis of inventory, vadose zone, groundwater, and river interactions for evaluating cumulative impacts from individual and aggregate waste sites. (3) Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE)--A site-specific, risk-based methodology developed to evaluate performance of waste retrieval, leak detection and closure on a tank-specific basis as a function of past tank Leaks, potential leakage during retrieval operations, and remaining residual waste inventories following completion of retrieval operations. (4) Field Investigation Report (FIR)--A corrective action program to investigate the nature and extent of past tank leaks through characterization activities and assess future impacts to

Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, J.E.; Lappa, D.A.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Chuang, T.Y.; Johnson, J.J.; Campbell, R.D.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Maslenikov, O.R.; Tiong, L.W.; Ravindra, M.K.; Kincaid, R.H.; Sues, R.H.; Putcha, C.S.

1993-11-01

This report describes the methodology used and the results obtained from the application of a simplified seismic risk methodology to the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station Unit 2. This study is part of the Level I analysis being performed by the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP). Using the RMIEP developed event and fault trees, the analysis resulted in a seismically induced core damage frequency point estimate of 6.OE-7/yr. This result, combined with the component importance analysis, indicated that system failures were dominated by random events. The dominant components included diesel generator failures (failure to swing, failure to start, failure to run after started), and condensate storage tank

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

The development and application of an integrated radiological risk assessment procedure using time-dependent probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laurens, J.M.; Thompson, B.G.J.; Sumerling, T.J.

1990-01-01

During the past decade, the UKDoE has funded the development of an integrated assessment procedure centred around probabilistic risk analysis (p.r.a.) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to account for the effects of parameter value uncertainty, including those associated with temporal changes in the environment over a postclosure period of about one million years. The influence of these changes can now be incorporated explicitly into the p.r.a. simulator VANDAL (Variability ANalysis of Disposal ALternatives) briefly described here. Although a full statistically converged time-dependent p.r.a. will not be demonstrated until the current Dry Run 3 trial is complete, illustrative examples are given showing the ability of VANDAL to represent spatially complex groundwater and repository systems evolving under the influence of climatic change. 18 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

RISK INTEGRATION MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IN BANKING INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

JIANPING LI; JICHUANG FENG; XIAOLEI SUN; MINGLU LI

2012-01-01

Recently, the number of consultative documents and research papers that discuss risk integration has grown considerably. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done on risk integration in the banking industry. This survey includes: (1) risk integration methods within regulatory frameworks and the banking industry; (2) challenges of risk integration; (3) risk interaction mechanisms; (4) development of risk integration approaches; (5) risk interaction results: diversification ve...

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

2014-06-01

This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhe Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

1990-01-01

In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria POPESCU

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.

Integrated Level 3 risk assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, A.C. Jr.; Brown, T.D.; Miller, L.A.

1991-01-01

An integrated Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant using state-of-the-art PRA analysis techniques. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the risk to the offsite population during full power operation of the plant and to include a characterization of the uncertainties in the calculated risk values. Uncertainties were included in the accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, and the source term analysis. Only weather uncertainties were included in the consequence analysis. In this paper selected results from the accident frequency, accident progression, source term, consequence, and integrated risk analyses are discussed and the methods used to perform a fully integrated Level 3 PRA are examined. LaSalle County Station is a two-unit nuclear power plant located 55 miles southwest of Chicago, Illinois. Each unit utilizes a Mark 2 containment to house a General Electric 3323 MWt BWR-5 reactor. This PRA, which was performed on Unit 2, included internal as well as external events. External events that were propagated through the risk analysis included earthquakes, fires, and floods. The internal event accident scenarios included transients, transient-induced LOCAs (inadvertently stuck open relief valves), anticipated transients without scram, and loss of coolant accidents

Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Grau-Moya

Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nesterenko Oksana O.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2015-01-01

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-06-15

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Integrated supply chain risk management

OpenAIRE

Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

2007-01-01

Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...

IRRAS, Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System for PC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.

1995-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: IRRAS4.16 is a program developed for the purpose of performing those functions necessary to create and analyze a complete Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This program includes functions to allow the user to create event trees and fault trees, to define accident sequences and basic event failure data, to solve system and accident sequence fault trees, to quantify cut sets, and to perform uncertainty analysis on the results. Also included in this program are features to allow the analyst to generate reports and displays that can be used to document the results of an analysis. Since this software is a very detailed technical tool, the user of this program should be familiar with PRA concepts and the methods used to perform these analyses. 2 - Method of solution: IRRAS4.16 is written entirely in MODULA-2 and uses an integrated commercial graphics package to interactively construct and edit fault trees. The fault tree solving methods used are industry recognized top down algorithms. For quantification, the program uses standard methods to propagate the failure information through the generated cut sets. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Due to the complexity of and the variety of ways a fault tree can be defined it is difficult to define limits on the complexity of the problem solved by this software. It is, however, capable of solving a substantial fault tree due to efficient methods. At this time, the software can efficiently solve problems as large as other software currently used on mainframe computers. Does not include source code

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-01-01

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

Risk management: integration of social and technical risk variables into safety assessments of LWR'S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turnage, J.J.; Husseiny, A.A.

1980-01-01

A risk management methodology is developed here to formalize the acceptability levels of commercial LWR power plants via the estimation of risk levels acceptable to the public and the integration of such estimates into risk-benefit analysis. Utility theory is used for developing preference models based on value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainties about the impact of alternatives. The method involves reducing the various variables affecting safety acceptability decisions to a single function that provides a metric for acceptability levels. The function accomondates for technical criteria related to design and licensing decisions, as well as public reactions to certain choices

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Hun Lee

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant, Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrell, W.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.; Daniel, S.L.

1992-10-01

This report is a description of the internal flood analysis performed on the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 2. A more detailed integration with the internal events analysis than in prior flood risk assessments was accomplished. The same system fault trees used for the internal events analysis were also used for the flood analysis, which included modeling of components down to the contact pair level. Subsidiary equations were created to map the effects of pipe failures. All component locations were traced and mapped into the fault trees. The effects of floods were then mapped directly onto the internal plant model and their relative importance was evaluated. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that most plant areas had a negligible contribution to the flood-induced core damage frequency. This was influenced strongly by the fact that the LaSalle plant was designed with a high level of concern about the effects of external events such as fire and flood and significant separation was maintained between systems in the original design. Detailed analysis of the remaining flood scenarios identified only two that contributed significantly to risk. The flood analysis resulted in a total (mean) core damage frequency of 3.23E-6 per year

Integration of risk and benefit analysis - The window of benefit as a new tool?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palou, A.; Pico, C.; Keijer, J.

2009-01-01

Foods and food components can have positive and/or negative effects on our health, resulting in benefits and risks. At present these are evaluated in largely separated trajectories. In view of assessment, management, and communication, we here propose and argue for an integrated evaluation of risk

Supply chain integration, risk management and manufacturing flexibility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chaudhuri, Atanu; Boer, Harry; Taran, Yariv

2018-01-01

, respectively, and manufacturing flexibility. Design/methodology/approach – Using hierarchical regression, data are analyzed from a sample of 343 manufacturing plants in Asia collected in 2013-2014 as part of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS VI). Findings – Internal integration and supply......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of internal integration, external integration and supply chain risk management on manufacturing flexibility, and the moderating effect of supply chain risk management on the relationships between internal and external integration...... chain risk management have a direct effect on manufacturing flexibility. Supply chain risk management moderates the relationship between external integration and flexibility. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed to generalize beyond the flexibility performance of discrete...

Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

Science.gov (United States)

Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

2004-01-01

Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

Integrated supply chain risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riaan Bredell

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly applied, this process may optimise management decision-making and assist in the protection and enhancement of shareholder value.

Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process

A Look at the Practice of Risk Classification: Integrative Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Alves Morais Filho

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: the increase in the number of patients in emergency services / emergency brought the need for screening / risk classification as a way to organize the urgency and emergency care in the health institutions. Objectives: know how to develop the risk classification practice in the Brazilian reality using the scientific production, the insertion of nurses in risk classification using the Brazilian scientific production. Methods: an integrative review was carried out, the data occurred during September 2015 in the following databases: Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Medline, and the Latin American and Caribbean System of Information on Health Sciences (LILACS "GOOGLE SCHOLAR." Results: it found 9,874 articles and selected 33 for analysis. The results were organized in 04 categories: Risk classification as assistance qualifier; risk classification’s organization; operation weaknesses of the risk classification and nurse's role in risk classification. Conclusion: We conclude that the risk classification qualifies the assistance in emergency services; there are many difficulties for the risk classification’s operation and the nurse has been established as a professional with technical and legal competence to perform the risk classification.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

2004-01-01

...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

Science.gov (United States)

Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

2010-01-01

The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... between strategy and the risks and opportunities faced by the organisation. For this purpose, a web-based research questionnaire was sent to high-level implementers of integrated reporting at companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa, where integrated reporting is a listing requirement.

Economic Exposure and Integrated Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Miller, Kent D.

1994-01-01

Most corporate risk management research focuses on particular risk exposures to the exclusion of other interrelated exposures. By contrast, this study models corporate risk exposures using a multivariate approach integrating the distinct exposures of interest to finance and strategy researchers. The paper addresses the implications of multivariate modeling for corporate risk management, some key methodological issues arising in empirical estimation of corporate economic exposrues, and direc...

Analysis of integrity and risk for onshore pipelines; Analise de integridade e risco para dutos onshore

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, Marco Aurelio [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2008-07-01

The increasing expansion of the oil and gas industry in Brazil, the current legal requirements relating to security, health and environment in the industrial installations, is necessary that the companies, responsible by the operation of pipelines for oil and gas transport, adopt efficient techniques to assure the operational continuity of these of trustworthy form and insurance. To fulfill this important function it is important that the companies implement a management program to control and register the integrity of the pipelines during the all operational life cycle. Inside of this context of management of the integrity of pipelines, the DNV developed the software ORBIT Pipeline with the intention to serve as an important tool to monitor the technique and security condition of the pipeline, to define the frequency and content technician of the inspection program and to recommend the work of intervention or repair in pipeline when necessary. Additionally to these activities that are carried through directly in the ORBIT Pipeline, also an evaluation of the activity of third part and the land/soil movement is made inside of the systematic for analysis of integrity and risk for onshore pipelines performed by DNV. (author)

Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, Enrico

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

Integration Of Spa Tio- Temporal Analysis Of Rainfall And Community Information System To Reduce Landslide Risk In Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sudibyakto .

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Indonesia is vulnerable to many type of disasters including natural and anthropogenic disasters. Indonesian seasonal rainfall also shows inter annual variation. Sediment-related disaster such as landslide is the mostji-equent disaster occurred and significantly was impacted to natural, human. and social environment. Although. many disaster mitigation e.Oorts have been conducted to reduce disaster risk there are still urgently need to improve the early 1varning .\\~ystem by communicating the risk into local community. Integration qf spatialtemporal analysis qf rainfall and disaster management information !o~vstem would be required to improve the better disaster management in Indonesia. Application of Disaster A1anagement Information System in the study area will presented including evacuation map that used by the local community.

Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

integration. We also calculate the welfare costs of imperfect capital market integration and risk sharing and find that these costs vary a lot over time. Finally, we show that consumption risk sharing is higher during times of crises, i.e. at times when marginal utility is high and risk sharing is most......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...... capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust is to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatilities. Hence, financial integration seems to drive consumption risk sharing whereas we find no evidence that risk sharing forecasts market...

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

Szabo Alina

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...

A comparative thermodynamic, economic and risk analysis concerning implementation of oxy-combustion power plants integrated with cryogenic and hybrid air separation units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skorek-Osikowska, Anna; Bartela, Łukasz; Kotowicz, Janusz

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Mathematical model of an integrated oxy-combustion power plant. • Comparison of a hybrid membrane–cryogenic oxygen generation plant with a cryogenic plant. • Thermodynamic analysis of the modeled cases of the plant. • Comparative economic analysis of the power plant with cryogenic and hybrid ASU. • Comparative risk analysis using a Monte Carlo method and sensitivity analysis. - Abstract: This paper presents a comparison of two types of oxy-combustion power plant that differ from each other in terms of the method of oxygen separation. For the purpose of the analysis, detailed thermodynamic models of oxy-fuel power plants with gross power of approximately 460 MW were built. In the first variant (Case 1), the plant is integrated with a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU). In the second variant (Case 2), the plant is integrated with a hybrid membrane–cryogenic installation. The models were built and optimized using the GateCycle, Aspen Plus and Aspen Custom Modeller software packages and with the use of our own computational codes. The results of the thermodynamic evaluation of the systems, which primarily uses indicators such as the auxiliary power and efficiencies of the whole system and of the individual components that constitute the unit, are presented. Better plant performance is observed for Case 2, which has a net efficiency of electricity generation that is 1.1 percentage points greater than that of Case 1. For the selected structure of the system, an economic analysis of the solutions was made. This analysis accounts for different scenarios of the functioning of the Emission Trading Scheme and includes detailed estimates of the investment costs in both cases. As an indicator of profitability, the break-even price of electricity was used primarily. The results of the analysis for the assumptions made are presented in this paper. A system with a hybrid air separation unit has slightly better economic performance. The break-even price

Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

CERN Document Server

Kenett, Ron

2010-01-01

The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

2005-01-01

The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

[Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whelan, G.

1994-01-01

This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

The role of risk assessment and safety analysis in integrated safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niall, R.; Hunt, M.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-01-01

To ensure that the design and operation of both nuclear and non- nuclear hazardous facilities is acceptable, and meets all societal safety expectations, a rigorous deterministic and probabilistic assessment is necessary. An approach is introduced, founded on the concept of an ''Integrated Safety Assessment.'' It merges the commonly performed safety and risk analyses and uses them in concert to provide decision makers with the necessary depth of understanding to achieve ''adequacy.'' 3 refs., 1 fig

Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

2018-01-01

Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo

2011-01-01

The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

Analysis frame of integrity risk management：theory, process and mechanism%廉政风险管理的分析框架：理论、过程和机制

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

庄德水

2011-01-01

With the arrival of Risk Society, integrity risk management becomes the essential way to build a clean government and struggle against corruption. Appling risk-management theory and method to anti-corruption, integrity risk management help relieve integrity risks and improve the ability to cope with integrity risks. Integrity risk management is a dynamic process composed of risk identification, risk appraisal, risk treatment and risk man- agement performance evaluation. The focal point of strengthening integrity risk management is to construct the mechanisms of risk analysis, risk early-warning, risk prevention, risk replying, and risk communication.%随着“风险社会”的来临，推进廉政风险管理成为新时期加强反腐倡廉建设的重要内容。廉政风险管理是风险管理理论和方法在反腐败工作领域的实际应用，有利于化解廉政风险，提升政府应对廉政风险的能力。廉政风险管理是一个动态过程，由廉政风险识别、廉政风险评估、廉政风险处理和廉政风险管理绩效评估等阶段组成。当前，推进廉政风险管理要重点构建风险分析机制、风险预警机制、风险防范机制、风险应对机制和风险沟通机制。

Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

2009-01-01

Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

Cost benefit risk - a concept for management of integrated urban wastewater systems?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hauger, Mikkel B.; Rauch, W.; Linde, Jens Jørgen

2002-01-01

Urban wastewater systems should be evaluated and analysed from an integrated point of view, taking all parts of the system, that is sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving waters into consideration. Risk and parameter uncertainties are aspects that hardly ever have been addressed...... in the evaluation and design of urban wastewater systems. In this paper we present and discuss a probabilistic approach for evaluation of the performance of urban wastewater systems. Risk analysis together with the traditional cost-benefit analysis is a special variant of multi-criteria analysis that seeks to find...... the most feasible improvement alternative for an urban wastewater system. The most feasible alternative in this context is the alternative that has the best performance, meaning that the alternative has the lowest sum of costs, benefits and risks. The sum is expressed as the Net Present Cost (NPC). To use...

Integration of risk matrix and event tree analysis: a natural stone ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

M Kemal Özfirat

2017-09-27

Sep 27, 2017 ... Different types of accidents may occur in natural stone facilities during movement, dimensioning, cutting ... are numerous risk analysis methods such as preliminary ..... machine type and maintenance (MM) event, block control.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2003-01-01

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

Managing Key Risks in Post-Merger IS Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alaranta, Mar; Mathiassen, L

2014-01-01

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for......, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting...... the framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration...

THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jin Won; Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo

2016-01-01

This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening

Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for the exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as the instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role...

Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

2016-01-01

capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatility as alternative drivers of risk sharing. Finally, we calculate the welfare costs of imperfect consumption risk sharing and find......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...

The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

IIRC (2013b: 3), integrated thinking takes into account the connectivity and ... historical information and provides investors and other stakeholders with .... in the disclosure of risks and opportunities by using a sample of the top 100 JSE-.

An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartela, Łukasz; Skorek-Osikowska, Anna; Kotowicz, Janusz

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Two variants of a CHP plant – with and without integration with CCS were analyzed. • For the CHP plant main investment risk factors were identified. • For two variants risk analyses based on Monte Carlo method have been carried out. • For evaluation of the investment risk four indices were defined and calculated. - Abstract: For two variants of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant a thermodynamic, economic and risk analyses were carried out. The first variant consists of a unit working without realization of CO 2 capture process. The second one is the unit integrated with a chemical absorption CO 2 capture installation. In this variant the heat required for the desorption process is supplied with steam extracted from the steam turbine. The developed model of the CHP plant allowed to obtain main operation characteristics for annual change of load. For the two analyzed variants the characteristics of the amount of produced electricity (gross and net), generated heat and consumed chemical energy of fuel, as a function of the cogeneration unit operation time per year, were determined. In the next stage of calculations these characteristics were required to carry out the economic and risk analysis. Economic performances were evaluated in terms of the break-even price of electricity. The performed analysis proves that both investment projects will achieve the same economic effect, i.e. 85.26 €/MW h, if the price of emissions allowances reaches the value of 47.88 €/MgCO 2 . In this case, the potentially better variant of the system may be indicated based on the result of the risk analysis. In order to perform the risk analysis the main technical and economic risk factors concerning implementation of this technology were identified. The risk analysis was conducted with the use of Monte Carlo method. Based on the determined cumulative probability curves of obtaining specified values of the break-even price of electricity, it

Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

2001-01-01

The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1990-12-31

The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

An integral approach to the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwarzblat, M.; Arellano, J.

1987-01-01

In this chapter some of the work developed at the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas in the area of probabilistic risk analysis are presented. In this area, work has been basically focused in the following directions: development and implementation of methods, and applications to real systems. The first part of this paper describes the area of methods development and implementation, presenting an integrated package of computer programs for fault tree analysis. In the second part some of the most important applications developed for real systems are presented. (author)

Integrative Therapies for Women with a High Risk Pregnancy During Antepartum Hospitalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlegel, Merry L; Whalen, Jeanne L; Williamsen, Pilar M

High-risk pregnancies that require lengthy hospitalization can cause anxiety and stress for pregnant women. Integrative medicine therapies may be beneficial for this population, but have not been widely studied. The purpose of this study was to evaluate potential effects of acupuncture, guided imagery, Healing Touch, massage therapy, and reflexology on pain and anxiety of hospitalized pregnant women. A retrospective analysis of the effects of integrative medicine therapies was conducted; N = 554 individual therapies were provided to hospitalized women with high-risk pregnancies. They included acupuncture (n = 83), guided imagery (n = 71), Healing Touch (n = 119), massage therapy (n = 196), and reflexology (n = 85) over an 18-month period. Pain and anxiety were measured pre- and posttherapy using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means no pain or no anxiety and 10 means high pain or high anxiety. Analysis of mean scores of pre- and posttherapies for pain and anxiety found a decrease of pain and anxiety after all of the therapies, ranging from an 84.5% to 61.4% decrease for pain (p < .0001) and a 91% to 70. 9% decrease for anxiety (p < .0001). Overall, patients rated their anxiety higher than pain prior to each therapy. Hospitalized pregnant women responded favorably to the therapies. There were no adverse reactions reported. Results suggest potential benefits of integrative medicine therapies for this group of inpatients. Anxiety was more prevalent than pain among hospitalized pregnant women who received integrative medicine therapy.

Information security risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2001-01-01

Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura – Maria POPESCU

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.

IT risk management disclosure in the integrated reports of the top 40 listed companies on the JSE limited

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Marx

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Information Technology (IT has become an integral part of virtually all modern day organisations. The advent of IT has given rise to numerous benefits which increase productivity and efficiency in the workplace, however, IT also brings with it significant risks that can have an impact on an organisation’s ability to function as a going concern. Organisations, especially those listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE, are required to submit an Integrated Report (IR on an annual basis in which they indicate how they used the resources at their disposal to create value for the organisation and its stakeholders during the year under review. The IR is also a forward-looking document, as opposed to the traditional, backward-looking reports. The purpose of this paper is to determine to what extent IT Risk and IT Risk Management are disclosed in the IR’s of the Top 40 Listed Companies on the JSE. It further aims to determine whether IT Risks are included as material risk in the entity’s risk statements of the Integrated Report, and whether proper explanations are provided on how the materiality of the risks are determined and dealt with. This is done by means of an empirical study consisting of a content analysis of the IRs of the Top 40 listed companies on the JSE. The results of the analysis indicates that more than half of the companies included IT risk as part of their material risks and outlined appropriate and detailed processes that were followed by the company to manage those IT risks. The findings of the study accordingly support the need for communicating significant risks and the management thereof to stakeholders as part of the integrated nature of governance of entities. However, it is disconcerting that some companies are not doing this, and accordingly are not realising the need for communicating significant matters to their stakeholders and the value that informative and credible reporting will bring to an entity�

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jin Won [Graduate School of Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo [Dept. Radiological Science, College of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening.

Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun; Lee, Sang hoon

2016-01-01

As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed

Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang hoon [Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed.

The Holistic Integrity Test (HIT - quantified resilience analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dobson Mike

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Holistic Integrity Test (HIT - Quantified Resilience Analysis. Rising sea levels and wider climate change mean we face an increasing risk from flooding and other natural hazards. Tough economic times make it difficult to economically justify or afford the desired level of engineered risk reduction. Add to this significant uncertainty from a range of future predictions, constantly updated with new science. We therefore need to understand not just how to reduce the risk, but what could happen should above design standard events occur. In flood terms this includes not only the direct impacts (damage and loss of life, but the wider cascade impacts to infrastructure systems and the longer term impacts on the economy and society. However, understanding the “what if” is only the first part of the equation; a range of improvement measures to mitigate such effects need to be identified and implemented. These measures should consider reducing the risk, lessening the consequences, aiding the response, and speeding up the recovery. However, they need to be objectively assessed through quantitative analysis, which underpins them technically and economically. Without such analysis, it cannot be predicted how measures will perform if the extreme events occur. It is also vital to consider all possible hazards as measures for one hazard may hinder the response to another. The Holistic Integrity Test (HIT, uses quantitative system analysis and “HITs” the site, its infrastructure, contained dangers and wider regional system to determine how it copes with a range of severe shock events, Before, During and After the event, whilst also accounting for uncertainty (as illustrated in figure 1. First explained at the TINCE 2014 Nuclear Conference in Paris, it was explained in terms of a Nuclear Facility needing to analyse the site in response to post Fukushima needs; the hit is however universally applicable. The HIT has three key risk reduction goals: The

Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

2014-01-01

To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

TWRS safety and technical integration risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fordham, R.A.

1996-01-01

The objectives of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Safety and Technical Integration (STI) programmatic risk management program are to assess, analyze, and handle risks associated with TWRS STI responsibilities and to communicate information about the actions being taken and the results to enable decision making. The objective of this TWRS STI Risk Management Plan is to communicate a consistent approach to risk management that will be used by the organization

Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borysiewicz, Mieczysław; Kowal, Karol; Potempski, Sławomir

2015-01-01

A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

W. A. Owca

2007-01-01

This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP)

Integrated environmental risk assessment for petroleum-contaminated sites - a North American case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z.; Huang, G.H.; Chakma, A.

1998-01-01

In this study, an integrated risk assessment approach is proposed for evaluating environmental risks derived from petroleum-contaminated sites. The proposed approach is composed of (i) a hydrocarbon spill screening model (HSSM) which is used for simulating immiscible flow of released hydrocarbons in vadose zone, formation of lens in capillary fringe, dissolution of pollutants at water table, and transport of the pollutants to receptors, and (ii) a fuzzy relation analysis (FRA) model which is developed for comprehensively evaluating risks caused by a number of pollutants with different impact characteristics, based on the HSSM results. This hybrid HSSM-FRA approach was applied to a case study for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada, where soil and groundwater was contaminated by industrial wastes containing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEXs). The results suggest that the HSSM-FRA can provide insight into the potential risk to the receptor of concern downward the aquifer and can serve as a basis for further remediation-related decision analysis. (author)

Development of Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) for Physical Protection System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Yoo, Ho Sik

2010-01-01

A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. The international flow on nuclear security is using the concept or risk assessment. The concept of risk assessment is firstly devised by nuclear safety people. They considered nuclear safety including its possible risk, which is the frequency of failure and possible consequence. Nuclear security people also considers security risk, which is the frequency of threat action, vulnerability, and consequences. The concept means that we should protect more when the credible threat exists and the possible radiological consequence is high. Even if there are several risk assessment methods of nuclear security, the application needs the help of tools because of a lot of calculation. It's also hard to find tools for whole phase of risk assessment. Several codes exist for the part of risk assessment. SAVI are used for vulnerability of PPS. Vital area identification code is used for consequence analysis. We are developing Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) to apply risk assessment methods for nuclear facilities. INCORIA evaluates PP-KINAC measures and generation tools for threat scenario. PP-KINAC is risk assessment measures for physical protection system developed by Hosik Yoo and is easy to apply. A threat scenario tool is used to generate threat scenario, which is used as one of input value to PP-KINAC measures

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R21 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

Science.gov (United States)

This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R01 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

Science.gov (United States)

This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

2015-01-01

Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk

Risk analysis associated with petroleum hydrocarbons: is everything running smoothly?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morin, D.

1999-01-01

Petroleum products represent one of the main sources of environmental contamination, and these products are complex, composed of several hundred individual hydrocarbons. The evaluation of the risks associated with petroleum products is often limited by certain specific parameters such as benzene. The petroleum hydrocarbons running from C(10) to C(50) are not often integrated in an analysis of the toxological risks since the toxological characterization of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons is difficult to carry out. There exist in the United States two approaches that were developed recently that allow the integration of various hydrocarbons comprising a mixture. In this presentation, two of these approaches are described and compared. An overview of these approaches related to Canadian regulatory bodies is included, and a case study completes the account. The two approaches that are most well known in this area are: 1) that of the Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection, and 2) that of the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group. The integration of petroleum hydrocarbons in a quantitative evaluation of their toxological risk is possible by present methods. This integration allows a reduction in the uncertainty associated with the use of an integrating parameter in the case of these petroleum hydrocarbons in the C(10) to the C(50) range

Risk analysis tools for force protection and infrastructure/asset protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaeger, C.D.; Duggan, R.A.; Paulus, W.K.

1998-01-01

The Security Systems and Technology Center at Sandia National Laboratories has for many years been involved in the development and use of vulnerability assessment and risk analysis tools. In particular, two of these tools, ASSESS and JTS, have been used extensively for Department of Energy facilities. Increasingly, Sandia has been called upon to evaluate critical assets and infrastructures, support DoD force protection activities and assist in the protection of facilities from terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Sandia is involved in many different activities related to security and force protection and is expanding its capabilities by developing new risk analysis tools to support a variety of users. One tool, in the very early stages of development, is EnSURE, Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation. EnSURE addresses all of the risk equation and integrates the many components into a single, tool-supported process to help determine the most cost-effective ways to reduce risk. This paper will briefly discuss some of these risk analysis tools within the EnSURE framework

Risk analysis of hematopoietic stem cell transplant process: failure mode, effect, and criticality analysis and hazard analysis critical control point methods integration based on guidelines to good manufacturing practice for medicinal product ANNEX 20 (February 2008).

Science.gov (United States)

Gianassi, S; Bisin, S; Bindi, B; Spitaleri, I; Bambi, F

2010-01-01

The collection and handling of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) must meet high quality requirements. An integrated Quality Risk Management can help to identify and contain potential risks related to HSC production. Risk analysis techniques allow one to "weigh" identified hazards, considering the seriousness of their effects, frequency, and detectability, seeking to prevent the most harmful hazards. The Hazard Analysis Critical Point, recognized as the most appropriate technique to identify risks associated with physical, chemical, and biological hazards for cellular products, consists of classifying finished product specifications and limits of acceptability, identifying all off-specifications, defining activities that can cause them, and finally establishing both a monitoring system for each Critical Control Point and corrective actions for deviations. The severity of possible effects on patients, as well as the occurrence and detectability of critical parameters, are measured on quantitative scales (Risk Priority Number [RPN]). Risk analysis was performed with this technique on manipulation process of HPC performed at our blood center. The data analysis showed that hazards with higher values of RPN with greater impact on the process are loss of dose and tracking; technical skills of operators and manual transcription of data were the most critical parameters. Problems related to operator skills are handled by defining targeted training programs, while other critical parameters can be mitigated with the use of continuous control systems. The blood center management software was completed by a labeling system with forms designed to be in compliance with standards in force and by starting implementation of a cryopreservation management module. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovhus, Torben Lund; Andersen, Erlend S.; Hillier, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. To manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the offshore...... industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental, and business-related issues. Risk...... influenced corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented and discussed. From...

The Role of Standardization in Improving the Effectiveness of Integrated Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Ciocoiu, Carmen Nadia; Dobrea, Razvan Catalin

2010-01-01

The need of standardization in risk management is justified by the efforts to develop and introduce, during the last few years, integrated risk management frameworks inside the organizations. The financial crisis has underscored the fact that significant improvements in risk management organizations and capabilities are required. The business community and also the experts recognize that the risk management standards have an important role in improving the effectiveness of integrated risk man...

Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

Science.gov (United States)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2017-10-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

Comparative risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

Science.gov (United States)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Application of an integrated risk management system for improved maintenance in industrial plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.T.; Vinod, G.; Balos, D. [Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies, Stuttgart (Germany); Stanojevic, P. [NIS - Petroleum Industry of Serbia, Novi Sad (Serbia)

2007-06-15

The paper presents the application of the Integrated Risk Management System (iRiS) and its application to the areas of Risk Based Inspection (RBI), Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) and Health, Safety and Environment (HSE). The web-based system integrates also the aspects of risk management related to data acquisition and management and interactive reporting and controlled use of single parts of the system by various individual users and/or user levels. A complementing part of the system is a tool for project management including the documentation and activity management, as well as scheduling and e-education and e-training. The complementing parts of the system are the CMMS part (maintenance management), the extension of HSE to HSSE (including the 'security' aspects and providing links to the disaster management system) and further interfacing towards general management system and process modeling and management systems. Experiences from the applications of system in Hungary (at over 60 units) and in Serbia, for several refineries and further units in upstream and downstream, are presented in the paper. (orig.)

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

2014-01-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

The Tous Dam Disaster of 1982: Risk communication and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Serra-Llobet, A.; Tàbara, J.; Sauri, D.

2012-12-01

The failure of Tous dam on the Júcar River near Valencia in 1982 was one of the most important socio-natural disasters in 20th century Spain. The death toll of 25 would have been much greater had not a local dam manager anticipated the failure and alerted mayors of a failure, before it actually occurred. The Tous Dam failure occurred a week before the first democratic elections in Spain after the Franco dictatorship, it received extensive coverage in the media. As a result, this disaster triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed at multiple levels of government in Spain. Many factors, often of a qualitative and organisational nature, affect (vertical and horizontal) communication in disaster risk reduction learning and planning at the community level. Through interviews with key actors and stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, review of historical and media accounts, and analysis of legislation and regulation, we documented changes that resulted from the Tous Dam failure: (1) A process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organisations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. (2) Actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain.We identify three main stages from 1980s to present in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area, which show a progressive shift towards a more integrated and preventative approach: (1) After the collapse of the Tous Dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives (e.g. the UN International Decade for Natural

Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

1987-01-01

The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco

protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

Optimising an integrated crop-livestock farm using risk programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SE Visagie

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Numerous studies have analysed farm planning decisions focusing on producer risk preferences. Few studies have focussed on the farm planning decisions in an integrated croplivestock farm context. Income variability and means of managing risk continues to receive much attention in farm planning research. Different risk programming models have attempted to focus on minimising the income variability of farm activities. This study attempts to identify the optimal mix of crops and the number of animals the farm needs to keep in the presence of crop production risk for a range of risk levels. A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to model the decision environment faced by an integrated crop-livestock farmer. The deviation of income from the expected value was used as a measure of risk. A case study is presented with representative data from a farm in the Swartland area. An investigation of the results of the model under different constraints shows that, in general, strategies that depend on crop rotation principles are preferred to strategies that follow mono-crop production practices.

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

2015-07-15

The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more

Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar.

Science.gov (United States)

Olive, Marie-Marie; Chevalier, Véronique; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Durand, Benoit; Ravalohery, Jean-Pierre; Andriamamonjy, Seta; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel

2016-07-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008-2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i) to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii) to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts. First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human) as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior) as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p<0.001). Areas with high cattle density were at risk (p<0.01; OR = 2.6). Furthermore, our analysis showed that frequent contact with raw milk contributed to explain human infection (OR = 1.6). Finally, our study highlighted the eastern-coast, western and north-western parts as high-risk areas for RVF transmission in cattle. Our integrated approach analyzing environmental, cattle and human datasets allow us to bring new insight on RVF transmission patterns in Madagascar. The association between cattle seroprevalence, humid environments and high cattle density suggests that concomitant vectorial and direct transmissions are critical to maintain RVF enzootic transmission. Additionally, in the at-risk humid environment of the western, north-western and the eastern-coast areas, suitable to Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, vectorial transmission probably occurs in both cattle and human. The relative contribution of

Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie-Marie Olive

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Rift Valley fever (RVF is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008-2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts.First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA. Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p<0.001. Areas with high cattle density were at risk (p<0.01; OR = 2.6. Furthermore, our analysis showed that frequent contact with raw milk contributed to explain human infection (OR = 1.6. Finally, our study highlighted the eastern-coast, western and north-western parts as high-risk areas for RVF transmission in cattle.Our integrated approach analyzing environmental, cattle and human datasets allow us to bring new insight on RVF transmission patterns in Madagascar. The association between cattle seroprevalence, humid environments and high cattle density suggests that concomitant vectorial and direct transmissions are critical to maintain RVF enzootic transmission. Additionally, in the at-risk humid environment of the western, north-western and the eastern-coast areas, suitable to Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, vectorial transmission probably occurs in both cattle and human. The relative contribution

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

Science.gov (United States)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin; Ulrich, Thomas; Groth, Katrina; Smith, Curtis

2016-01-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: • Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmussen, Martin [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Social Research; Herberger, Sarah [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ulrich, Thomas [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-06-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: • Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

1987-01-01

ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JUAN LAGUARDIA

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

2018-01-01

Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.

Integrative Analysis of Omics Big Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xiang-Tian; Zeng, Tao

2018-01-01

The diversity and huge omics data take biology and biomedicine research and application into a big data era, just like that popular in human society a decade ago. They are opening a new challenge from horizontal data ensemble (e.g., the similar types of data collected from different labs or companies) to vertical data ensemble (e.g., the different types of data collected for a group of person with match information), which requires the integrative analysis in biology and biomedicine and also asks for emergent development of data integration to address the great changes from previous population-guided to newly individual-guided investigations.Data integration is an effective concept to solve the complex problem or understand the complicate system. Several benchmark studies have revealed the heterogeneity and trade-off that existed in the analysis of omics data. Integrative analysis can combine and investigate many datasets in a cost-effective reproducible way. Current integration approaches on biological data have two modes: one is "bottom-up integration" mode with follow-up manual integration, and the other one is "top-down integration" mode with follow-up in silico integration.This paper will firstly summarize the combinatory analysis approaches to give candidate protocol on biological experiment design for effectively integrative study on genomics and then survey the data fusion approaches to give helpful instruction on computational model development for biological significance detection, which have also provided newly data resources and analysis tools to support the precision medicine dependent on the big biomedical data. Finally, the problems and future directions are highlighted for integrative analysis of omics big data.

A Comparison Study on the Integrated Risk Estimation for Various Power Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Tae Woon; Ha, J. J.; Kim, S. H.; Jeong, J. T.; Min, K. R.; Kim, K. Y.

2007-06-01

The objective of this study is to establish a system for the comparative analysis of the environmental impacts, risks, health effects, and social acceptance for various electricity generation systems and a computational framework and necessary databases. In this study, the second phase of the nuclear research and development program(2002-2004), the methodologies for the comparative analysis of the environmental impacts, risks, and health effects for various electricity generation systems was investigated and applied to reference power plants. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology as a comparative analysis tool for the environmental impacts was adopted and applied to fossil-fueled and nuclear power plants. The scope of the analysis considered in this study are the construction, operation/fuel cycle), and demolition of each power generation system. In the risk analysis part, the empirical and analytical methods were adopted and applied to fossil-fueled and nuclear power plants. In the empirical risk assessment part, we collected historical experiences of worldwide energy-related accidents with fatalities over the last 30 years. The scope of the analysis considered in this study are the construction, operation (fuel cycle), and demolition stages of each power generation systems. The risks for the case of nuclear power plants which have potential releases of radioactive materials were estimated In a probabilistic way (PSA) by considering the occurrence of severe accidents and compared with the risks of other electricity generation systems. The health effects testimated as external cost) resulting from the operation of nuclear, coal, and hydro power systems were estimated and compared by using the program developed by the IAEA. Regarding a comprehensive comparison of the various power systems, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is introduced to aggregate the diverse information under conflicting decision criteria. Social aspect is treated by a web

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

OpenAIRE

Jacobs, R.; Voet, van der, H.; Braak, ter, C.J.F.

2015-01-01

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5?200?nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrate...

A comparative examination of currency risk pricing and market integration in the stock markets of Nigeria and South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odongo Kodongo

2012-07-01

Full Text Available We examine the pricing of currency risk and market integration in the equity markets of Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Generalized Method of Moments with a multi-beta asset pricing model and firm-level data, we find that currency risk is partly unconditionally priced in South Africa's stock market, with this market being largely integrated with the world equity markets. Conversely, currency risk is not priced in Nigeria's equity market, which also shows no evidence of integration with the world equity markets. Interestingly, a portfolio analysis of firms reveals a size based return sensitivity to both world equity markets and exchange rate volatility across the two countries. Therefore, while general results suggest that Nigeria, rather than South Africa, would provide greater diversification benefits to international investors with little or no worry about hedging unconditional exchange rate risk, that view must be nuanced when considering large size firms which are consistently sensitive to the two factors across both countries.

Integrated genetic analysis microsystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagally, Eric T; Mathies, Richard A

2004-01-01

With the completion of the Human Genome Project and the ongoing DNA sequencing of the genomes of other animals, bacteria, plants and others, a wealth of new information about the genetic composition of organisms has become available. However, as the demand for sequence information grows, so does the workload required both to generate this sequence and to use it for targeted genetic analysis. Microfabricated genetic analysis systems are well poised to assist in the collection and use of these data through increased analysis speed, lower analysis cost and higher parallelism leading to increased assay throughput. In addition, such integrated microsystems may point the way to targeted genetic experiments on single cells and in other areas that are otherwise very difficult. Concomitant with these advantages, such systems, when fully integrated, should be capable of forming portable systems for high-speed in situ analyses, enabling a new standard in disciplines such as clinical chemistry, forensics, biowarfare detection and epidemiology. This review will discuss the various technologies available for genetic analysis on the microscale, and efforts to integrate them to form fully functional robust analysis devices. (topical review)

NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

2015-01-01

NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

Stock Market Integration: Are Risk Premiums of International Assets Equal?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kusdhianto Setiawan

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.

Use of an integrated human health/ecological risk assessment to develop a long-term groundwater/site management plan for a sour gas facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swanson, S.M.; Shaw, R.D.; McClymont, G.; Nadeau, S.

1995-01-01

An integrated human health and ecological risk assessment was used to quantify the level of risk associated with the off-site movement of contaminants via groundwater and soils at a medium-sized gas processing facility in southern Alberta. The study incorporated three key aspects: (1) integration; (2) consultation; and, (3) pro-active remedial actions. Integration was complete, beginning with the Problem Formulation stage and progressing through Risk Characterization and Risk Management. This integration was reflected in a multidisciplinary team of hydrogeologists, biologists and human health specialists. Several lessons emerged from the integrated approach: (1) spending 2/3 of the time and resources on Problem Formulation prevented later problems; (2) the different perspectives provided by the various specialists helped reveal the relative importance of pathways and ecological receptors (3) clear, consistent screening procedures for contaminants of concern and receptors were very effective with stakeholders; (4) exposure scenarios that incorporated common-sense situations (although still conservative) contributed to the credibility of the risk analysis; and, (5) an innovative combination of toxicity testing and chemical analysis helped delineate the boundaries of the potentially contaminated area for both human and ecological receptors in a cost effective manner. Consultation included directly affected parties, regulatory personnel and community members. The consultation extended through the project, with key ''buy-in'' points during Problem Formulation and Risk Characterization/Management. Pro-active remedial action included the removal of contaminant sources in the 1980's, a pump-and-treat system and extensive monitoring. These actions showed commitment and set the stage for credible risk-based mitigation and long-term monitoring

Fault trees and the impact of human variability on probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

It has long been recognized that human reliability is an important factor in probabilistic risk analysis. In the field, this is true in a direct operational sense as well as in the areas of installation and maintenance. The interest in quantification arises from the desire to achieve optimum design in the human factors sense (operability-maintainability) and from the need to include human reliability considerations in probabilistic risk analysis to achieve complete and valid risk evaluation. In order to integrate human reliability into the system analysis, it is necessary to consider two questions. These relate to the way that human functions fit into the existing analytical models and methods as well as the nature of human failure mechanisms, modes and failure (error) rates

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

2009-01-01

Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Bin; Jiang, Xiaolu; Duan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiuge; Zhang, Jing; Tang, Jingwen; Sun, Guoqing

2017-03-23

Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewable resource industrial park in mainland China. With a discrete site investigation of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg) and zinc (Zn) concentrations, the continuous surfaces of carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk caused by these heavy metals were estimated and mapped. Source apportionment analysis using geographical detector methods further revealed that these risks were primarily attributed to As, according to the power of the determinant and its associated synergic actions with other heavy metals. Concentrations of critical As and Cd, and the associated exposed CRs are closed to the safe thresholds after remediating the risk areas identified by the integrated H-G scheme. Therefore, the integrated H-G scheme provides an effective approach to support decision-making for regional contaminated soil remediation at fine spatial resolution with limited sampling data over a large geographical extent.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrate Real-Time Data into Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Remediation Efforts in NAPL Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Bolster, D.; Tartakovsky, D. M.

2010-12-01

The release of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) such as petroleum hydrocarbons and chlorinated solvents in the subsurface is a severe source of groundwater and vapor contamination. Because these liquids are essentially immiscible due to low solubility, these contaminants get slowly dissolved in groundwater and/or volatilized in the vadoze zone threatening the environment and public health over a long period. Many remediation technologies and strategies have been developed in the last decades for restoring the water quality properties of these contaminated sites. The failure of an on-site treatment technology application is often due to the unnoticed presence of dissolved NAPL entrapped in low permeability areas (heterogeneity) and/or the remaining of substantial amounts of pure phase after remediation efforts. Full understanding of the impact of remediation efforts is complicated due to the role of many interlink physical and biochemical processes taking place through several potential pathways of exposure to multiple receptors in a highly unknown heterogeneous environment. Due to these difficulties, the design of remediation strategies and definition of remediation endpoints have been traditionally determined without quantifying the risk associated with the failure of such efforts. We conduct a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the likelihood of success of an on-site NAPL treatment technology that easily integrates all aspects of the problem (causes, pathways, and receptors) without doing extensive modeling. Importantly, the method is further capable to incorporate the inherent uncertainty that often exist in the exact location where the dissolved NAPL plume leaves the source zone. This is achieved by describing the failure of the system as a function of this source zone exit location, parameterized in terms of a vector of parameters. Using a Bayesian interpretation of the system and by means of the posterior multivariate distribution, the failure of the

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC): Integrated Treatment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Safety Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youngblood, R.W.

2010-01-01

The concept of 'margin' has a long history in nuclear licensing and in the codification of good engineering practices. However, some traditional applications of 'margin' have been carried out for surrogate scenarios (such as design basis scenarios), without regard to the actual frequencies of those scenarios, and have been carried out with in a systematically conservative fashion. This means that the effectiveness of the application of the margin concept is determined in part by the original choice of surrogates, and is limited in any case by the degree of conservatism imposed on the evaluation. In the RISMC project, which is part of the Department of Energy's 'Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program' (LWRSP), we are developing a risk-informed characterization of safety margin. Beginning with the traditional discussion of 'margin' in terms of a 'load' (a physical challenge to system or component function) and a 'capacity' (the capability of that system or component to accommodate the challenge), we are developing the capability to characterize probabilistic load and capacity spectra, reflecting both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in system response. For example, the probabilistic load spectrum will reflect the frequency of challenges of a particular severity. Such a characterization is required if decision-making is to be informed optimally. However, in order to enable the quantification of probabilistic load spectra, existing analysis capability needs to be extended. Accordingly, the INL is working on a next-generation safety analysis capability whose design will allow for much more efficient parameter uncertainty analysis, and will enable a much better integration of reliability-related and phenomenology-related aspects of margin.

Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

2015-01-01

The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

OpenAIRE

Geis, Stefan Rafael

2006-01-01

This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...

Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach

OpenAIRE

Voloshyn, Ihor; Voloshyn, Mykyta

2013-01-01

In this article, on the basis of the "cash flow at risk" approach, the system of the integrated (credit, market, operational and liquidity risks) risk management in a market-maker commercial bank is developed. This system guarantees reaching profitability, liquidity and coverage of banking risks and thus allows the fullest protection of the interests of depositors, creditors and shareholders of the bank providing its sustainable development.

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

Science.gov (United States)

Ararat, Cagin

In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In

Observations on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.A. Jr.

1979-11-01

This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

The background and theory of integrated risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Hunsucker, John L.

1995-01-01

While all good managers have always considered risk in their decision making, only recently have formal programs to do so been introduced. This report covers the logical structure behind the formulation of an integrated risk management plan (IRM). Included in the report are factors forcing the development of a formal plan to consider risk, the basic objective or purpose of an IRM, and desirable traits of such a plan. The report moves on to a discussion of background issues, seeks to formalize some definitions, and then discusses required information on threats. The report concludes with the steps for an IRM.

From Invention to Innovation: Risk Analysis to Integrate One Health Technology in the Dairy Farm.

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardo, Andrea; Boselli, Carlo; Amatiste, Simonetta; Ninci, Simone; Frazzoli, Chiara; Dragone, Roberto; De Rossi, Alberto; Grasso, Gerardo; Mantovani, Alberto; Brajon, Giovanni

2017-01-01

Current Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP) approaches mainly fit for food industry, while their application in primary food production is still rudimentary. The European food safety framework calls for science-based support to the primary producers' mandate for legal, scientific, and ethical responsibility in food supply. The multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary project ALERT pivots on the development of the technological invention (BEST platform) and application of its measurable (bio)markers-as well as scientific advances in risk analysis-at strategic points of the milk chain for time and cost-effective early identification of unwanted and/or unexpected events of both microbiological and toxicological nature. Health-oriented innovation is complex and subject to multiple variables. Through field activities in a dairy farm in central Italy, we explored individual components of the dairy farm system to overcome concrete challenges for the application of translational science in real life and (veterinary) public health. Based on an HACCP-like approach in animal production, the farm characterization focused on points of particular attention (POPAs) and critical control points to draw a farm management decision tree under the One Health view (environment, animal health, food safety). The analysis was based on the integrated use of checklists (environment; agricultural and zootechnical practices; animal health and welfare) and laboratory analyses of well water, feed and silage, individual fecal samples, and bulk milk. The understanding of complex systems is a condition to accomplish true innovation through new technologies. BEST is a detection and monitoring system in support of production security, quality and safety: a grid of its (bio)markers can find direct application in critical points for early identification of potential hazards or anomalies. The HACCP-like self-monitoring in primary production is feasible, as well as the biomonitoring of live

Practical use of the integrated reporting framework – an analysis of the content of integrated reports of selected companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monika Raulinajtys-Grzybek

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Practical use of the integrated reporting framework – an analysis of the content of integrated reports of selected companies The purpose of the article is to provide a research tool for an initial assessment of whether a company’s integrated reports meet the objectives set out in the IIRC Integrated Reporting Framework and its empirical verification. In particular, the research addresses whether the reports meet the goal of improving the quality of information available and covering all factors that influence the organization’s ability to create value. The article uses the theoretical output on the principles of preparing integrated reports and analyzes the content of selected integrated reports. Based on the source analysis, a research tool has been developed for an initial assessment of whether an integrated report fulfills its objectives. It consists of 42 questions that verify the coverage of the defined elements and the implementation of the guiding principles set by the IIRC. For empirical verification of the tool, a comparative analysis was carried out for reports prepared by selected companies operating in the utilities sector. Answering questions from the research tool allows a researcher to formulate conclusions about the implementation of the guiding principles and the completeness of the presentation of the content elements. As a result of the analysis of selected integrated reports, it was stated that various elements of the report are presented with different levels of accuracy in different reports. Reports provide the most complete information on performance and strategy. The information about business model and prospective data is in some cases presented without making a link to other parts of the report – e.g. risks and opportunities, financial data or capitals. The absence of such links limits the ability to claim that an integrated report meets its objectives, since a set of individual reports, each presenting

Structural integrity analysis of a steam turbine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villagarcia, Maria P.

1997-01-01

One of the most critical components of a power utility is the rotor of the steam turbine. Catastrophic failures of the last decades have promoted the development of life assessment procedures for rotors. The present study requires the knowledge of operating conditions, component geometry, the properties of materials, history of the component, size, location and nature of the existing flaws. The aim of the present work is the obtention of a structural integrity analysis procedure for a steam turbine rotor, taking into account the above-mentioned parameters. In this procedure, a stress thermal analysis by finite elements is performed initially, in order to obtain the temperature and stress distribution for a subsequent analysis by fracture mechanics. The risk of a fast fracture due to flaws in the central zone of the rotor is analyzed. The procedure is applied to an operating turbine: the main steam turbine of the Atucha I nuclear power utility. (author)

Occupational and Cost Risk : Critical Analysis of Monetization Policy Risk Approach to the Spanish Law Standards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Antônio César Villatore

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The problem that surrounds the issue of occupational risk is a phenomenon that plagues every society, because the work is a central element and gives force to the economy. In this sense, the exposure of workers to harmful activities that may cause damage to your health and physical and mental integrity, based on the monetization policy of risk adopted by the Brazilian legal system, can import costs to the workers, employers, the state and society. Thus, the present study seeks, from the labor law analysis and the use of concepts of Economic Analysis of Law, attest that the social costs caused by worker exposure to risk is, fallaciously shown, in a short-term smaller than that of prevention, but in the long run can import the burden on all parties of the employment relationship as well as the State and society, being necessary to use economic and legal measures for changing the monetization of risk policy, as in alien systems, as the Spanish Law analyzed.

Sensitivity Analysis Based on Markovian Integration by Parts Formula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongsheng Hang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis is widely applied in financial risk management and engineering; it describes the variations brought by the changes of parameters. Since the integration by parts technique for Markov chains is well developed in recent years, in this paper we apply it for computation of sensitivity and show the closed-form expressions for two commonly-used time-continuous Markovian models. By comparison, we conclude that our approach outperforms the existing technique of computing sensitivity on Markovian models.

A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2017-06-15

When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.

A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

2017-01-01

When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

2013-10-15

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

Science.gov (United States)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

27 mars 2008 ... Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in support of Community Based Adaptation. Traditionally, African farmers have used indigenous knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns and make decisions about crop and irrigation cycles. However, increased variability ...

Large Scale Flood Risk Analysis using a New Hyper-resolution Population Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Wing, O.

2017-12-01

Here we present the first national scale flood risk analyses, using high resolution Facebook Connectivity Lab population data and data from a hyper resolution flood hazard model. In recent years the field of large scale hydraulic modelling has been transformed by new remotely sensed datasets, improved process representation, highly efficient flow algorithms and increases in computational power. These developments have allowed flood risk analysis to be undertaken in previously unmodeled territories and from continental to global scales. Flood risk analyses are typically conducted via the integration of modelled water depths with an exposure dataset. Over large scales and in data poor areas, these exposure data typically take the form of a gridded population dataset, estimating population density using remotely sensed data and/or locally available census data. The local nature of flooding dictates that for robust flood risk analysis to be undertaken both hazard and exposure data should sufficiently resolve local scale features. Global flood frameworks are enabling flood hazard data to produced at 90m resolution, resulting in a mis-match with available population datasets which are typically more coarsely resolved. Moreover, these exposure data are typically focused on urban areas and struggle to represent rural populations. In this study we integrate a new population dataset with a global flood hazard model. The population dataset was produced by the Connectivity Lab at Facebook, providing gridded population data at 5m resolution, representing a resolution increase over previous countrywide data sets of multiple orders of magnitude. Flood risk analysis undertaken over a number of developing countries are presented, along with a comparison of flood risk analyses undertaken using pre-existing population datasets.

A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

2009-07-01

A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

Marital status integration and suicide: A meta-analysis and meta-regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyung-Sook, Woo; SangSoo, Shin; Sangjin, Shin; Young-Jeon, Shin

2018-01-01

Marital status is an index of the phenomenon of social integration within social structures and has long been identified as an important predictor suicide. However, previous meta-analyses have focused only on a particular marital status, or not sufficiently explored moderators. A meta-analysis of observational studies was conducted to explore the relationships between marital status and suicide and to understand the important moderating factors in this association. Electronic databases were searched to identify studies conducted between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2016. We performed a meta-analysis, subgroup analysis, and meta-regression of 170 suicide risk estimates from 36 publications. Using random effects model with adjustment for covariates, the study found that the suicide risk for non-married versus married was OR = 1.92 (95% CI: 1.75-2.12). The suicide risk was higher for non-married individuals aged analysis by gender, non-married men exhibited a greater risk of suicide than their married counterparts in all sub-analyses, but women aged 65 years or older showed no significant association between marital status and suicide. The suicide risk in divorced individuals was higher than for non-married individuals in both men and women. The meta-regression showed that gender, age, and sample size affected between-study variation. The results of the study indicated that non-married individuals have an aggregate higher suicide risk than married ones. In addition, gender and age were confirmed as important moderating factors in the relationship between marital status and suicide. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

2007-01-01

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

Stochastic risk-averse coordinated scheduling of grid integrated energy storage units in transmission constrained wind-thermal systems within a conditional value-at-risk framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hemmati, Reza; Saboori, Hedayat; Saboori, Saeid

2016-01-01

In recent decades, wind power resources have been integrated in the power systems increasingly. Besides confirmed benefits, utilization of large share of this volatile source in power generation portfolio has been faced system operators with new challenges in terms of uncertainty management. It is proved that energy storage systems are capable to handle projected uncertainty concerns. Risk-neutral methods have been proposed in the previous literature to schedule storage units considering wind resources uncertainty. Ignoring risk of the cost distributions with non-desirable properties may result in experiencing high costs in some unfavorable scenarios with high probability. In order to control the risk of the operator decisions, this paper proposes a new risk-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to make optimal decisions on energy storage and thermal units in a transmission constrained hybrid wind-thermal power system. Risk-aversion procedure is explicitly formulated using the conditional value-at-risk measure, because of possessing distinguished features compared to the other risk measures. The proposed model is a mixed integer linear programming considering transmission network, thermal unit dynamics, and storage devices constraints. The simulations results demonstrate that taking the risk of the problem into account will affect scheduling decisions considerably depend on the level of the risk-aversion. - Highlights: • Risk of the operation decisions is handled by using risk-averse programming. • Conditional value-at-risk is used as risk measure. • Optimal risk level is obtained based on the cost/benefit analysis. • The proposed model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming. • The unit commitment is integrated with ESSs and wind power penetration.

An integrated framework for risk analysis and management applied to E and P; Modelo integrado de analise e gestao de riscos em E and P

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Repsold Junior, Hugo; Giamattey, Ricardo H.D.; Miranda, Thales R. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2008-07-01

The current challenges associated with the Oil an Gas industry demand a great capacity in planning, executing and managing activities from the major players. Accordingly, this paper proposes an integrated framework for risk analysis and management in the E and P sector whose main objective is to ensure that the expected benefits from an efficient resource allocation will be achieved. Firstly, the methodology presents a framework designed to help implementing a risk management process. Besides that, it also addresses the organizational structure needed to enforce the process. Finally, it highlights the sub processes which should be inherently linked to the company's business process. To conclude, the paper discusses how to take advantage from this process to create corporate knowledge. (author)

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Unsharpness-risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.

1986-01-01

Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

Timing of Formal Phase Safety Reviews for Large-Scale Integrated Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

2010-01-01

Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is a process used to identify and control unacceptable risk. As such, it does not occur in a vacuum. IHA approaches must be tailored to fit the system being analyzed. Physical, resource, organizational and temporal constraints on large-scale integrated systems impose additional direct or derived requirements on the IHA. The timing and interaction between engineering and safety organizations can provide either benefits or hindrances to the overall end product. The traditional approach for formal phase safety review timing and content, which generally works well for small- to moderate-scale systems, does not work well for very large-scale integrated systems. This paper proposes a modified approach to timing and content of formal phase safety reviews for IHA. Details of the tailoring process for IHA will describe how to avoid temporary disconnects in major milestone reviews and how to maintain a cohesive end-to-end integration story particularly for systems where the integrator inherently has little to no insight into lower level systems. The proposal has the advantage of allowing the hazard analysis development process to occur as technical data normally matures.

Managing Risks in Distributed Software Projects: An Integrative Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars; Boeg, Jesper

2009-01-01

techniques into an integrative framework for managing risks in distributed contexts. Subsequent implementation of a Web-based tool helped us refine the framework based on empirical evaluation of its practical usefulness.We conclude by discussing implications for both research and practice.......Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need carefulmanagerial attention. While risk management has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software...... development, there are currently no frameworks available for managing risks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically distributed software projects. Based on the review, we synthesize what we know about risks and risk resolution...

University Lawyers: A Study of Legal Risk, Risk Management and Role in Work Integrated Learning Programmes

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Craig; Klopper, Christopher

2015-01-01

Work integrated learning (WIL) is in growing demand by multiple stakeholders within the higher education sector in Australia. There are significant and distinct legal risks to universities associated with WIL programmes. University lawyers, along with WIL administrators and university management, are responsible for managing legal risk. This…

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeit, Peter; Kaptoge, S; Welsh, P.

2016-01-01

samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes......BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present...... by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored...

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

Risk assessment concept in the new approach directives and its integration in the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đapić Mirko

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In the nineties years of the previous century, the European Union achieved, through introducing the New and Global Approach to technical harmonization and standardization, a significant improvement in the approach to conformity assessment of products, by integrating the requirements for technical products safety into the process of its designing. This was achieved by preventive analyzing and quantifying of risk levels in the design process with the objective of determining the scope of the needed safety systems. On the other hand, we have witnessed a rapid development and implementation of holistic approaches to risks management in enterprises, unified in the modern business practice by the name of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM. Going along that line, the paper presents, through the basis of the EU New and Global Approach, the concept of risk assessment in the New Approach directives (Machinery, Lifts, ATEX, etc and provides the concept of its integration into the holistic approach of risks management in enterprises, such as ERM.

The practical implementation of integrated safety management for nuclear safety analysis and fire hazards analysis documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

COLLOPY, M.T.

1999-01-01

In 1995 Mr. Joseph DiNunno of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board issued an approach to describe the concept of an integrated safety management program which incorporates hazard and safety analysis to address a multitude of hazards affecting the public, worker, property, and the environment. Since then the U S . Department of Energy (DOE) has adopted a policy to systematically integrate safety into management and work practices at all levels so that missions can be completed while protecting the public, worker, and the environment. While the DOE and its contractors possessed a variety of processes for analyzing fire hazards at a facility, activity, and job; the outcome and assumptions of these processes have not always been consistent for similar types of hazards within the safety analysis and the fire hazard analysis. Although the safety analysis and the fire hazard analysis are driven by different DOE Orders and requirements, these analyses should not be entirely independent and their preparation should be integrated to ensure consistency of assumptions, consequences, design considerations, and other controls. Under the DOE policy to implement an integrated safety management system, identification of hazards must be evaluated and agreed upon to ensure that the public. the workers. and the environment are protected from adverse consequences. The DOE program and contractor management need a uniform, up-to-date reference with which to plan. budget, and manage nuclear programs. It is crucial that DOE understand the hazards and risks necessarily to authorize the work needed to be performed. If integrated safety management is not incorporated into the preparation of the safety analysis and the fire hazard analysis, inconsistencies between assumptions, consequences, design considerations, and controls may occur that affect safety. Furthermore, confusion created by inconsistencies may occur in the DOE process to grant authorization of the work. In accordance with

Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

2015-01-22

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Aalst, M.

2006-08-01

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Taiji

2014-01-01

Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

1997-01-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

A Thermorisk framework for the analysis of energy systems by combining risk and exergy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassetti, G.; Colombo, E.; Zio, E.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems is presented. • The relation between thermodynamic parameters and the safety characteristics is identified. • Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system. - Abstract: The impact of energy production, transformation and use on the environmental resources encourage to understand the mechanisms of resource degradation and to develop proper analyses to reduce the impact of the energy systems on the environment. At the technical level, most attempts for reducing the environmental impact of energy systems focus on the improvement of process efficiency. One way toward an integrated approach is that of adopting exergy analysis for assessing efficiency and test improving design and operation solutions. The paper presents an exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems, named Thermorisk analysis. The purpose of the Thermorisk analysis is to supply information to control, and eventually reduce, the risk of the systems (i.e. risk of accidents) by acting on the thermodynamic parameters and safety characteristics in the same frame. The proper combination of exergy and risk analysis allows monitoring the effects of efficiency improvement on the safety of the systems analyzed. A case study is presented, showing the potential of the analysis to identify the relation between the exergy efficiency and the risk of the system analyzed, and the contribution of inefficiencies on the safety of the process. Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system.

Having a Go: Looking at Teachers' Experience of Risk-Taking in Technology Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Sarah K.; Gigliotti, Amanda

2016-01-01

Risk is an integral part of change. Technology-related change in teachers' practice is guided by confidence engaging in and beliefs about integration. However, it is also affected by how teachers feel about taking risks, experimenting and change. This paper presents a theoretical framework of affect and emotion to understand how teachers…

Strategies for Integrated Analysis of Genetic, Epigenetic, and Gene Expression Variation in Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thingholm, Louise B; Andersen, Lars; Makalic, Enes

2016-01-01

The development and progression of cancer, a collection of diseases with complex genetic architectures, is facilitated by the interplay of multiple etiological factors. This complexity challenges the traditional single-platform study design and calls for an integrated approach to data analysis...... to integration strategies used for analyzing genetic risk factors for cancer. We critically examine the ability of these strategies to handle the complexity of the human genome and also accommodate information about the biological and functional interactions between the elements that have been measured...

Development of integrated computer code for analysis of risk reduction strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong Ha; Kim, See Darl; Kim, Hee Dong

2002-05-01

The development of the MIDAS/TH integrated severe accident code was performed in three main areas: 1) addition of new models derived from the national experimental programs and models for APR-1400 Korea next generation reactor, 2) improvement of the existing models using the recently available results, and 3) code restructuring for user friendliness. The unique MIDAS/TH models include: 1) a kinetics module for core power calculation during ATWS, 2) a gap cooling module between the molten corium pool and the reactor vessel wall, 3) a penetration tube failure module, 4) a PAR analysis module, and 5) a look-up table for the pressure and dynamic load during steam explosion. The improved models include: 1) a debris dispersal module considering the cavity geometry during DCH, 2) hydrogen burn and deflagration-to-detonation transition criteria, 3) a peak pressure estimation module for hydrogen detonation, and 4) the heat transfer module between the molten corium pool and the overlying water. The sparger and the ex-vessel heat transfer module were assessed. To enhance user friendliness, code restructuring was performed. In addition, a sample of severe accident analysis results was organized under the preliminary database structure

Integrated genomic and BMI analysis for type 2 diabetes risk assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dayanara eLebrón-Aldea

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Type 2 Diabetes (T2D is a chronic disease arising from the development of insulin absence or resistance within the body, and a complex interplay of environmental and genetic factors. The incidence of T2D has increased throughout the last few decades, together with the occurrence of the obesity epidemic. The consideration of variants identified by Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS into risk assessment models for T2D could aid in the identification of at-risk patients who could benefit from preventive medicine. In this study, we build several risk assessment models, and evaluated them with two different classification approaches (Logistic Regression and Neural Networks, to measure the effect of including genetic information in the prediction of T2D. We used data from to the Original and the Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study, which provides phenotypic and genetic information for 5,245 subjects (4,306 controls and 939 cases. Models were built by using several covariates: gender, exposure time, cohort, body mass index (BMI, and 65 established T2D-associated SNPs. We fitted Logistic Regressions and Bayesian Regularized Neural Network and then assessed their predictive ability by using a ten-fold cross validation. We found that the inclusion of genetic information into the risk assessment models increased the predictive ability by 2%, when compared to the baseline model. Furthermore, the models that included BMI at the onset of diabetes as a possible effector, gave an improvement of 6% in the area under the curve derived from the ROC analysis. The highest AUC achieved (0.75 belonged to the model that included BMI, and a genetic score based on the 65 established T2D-associated SNPs. Finally, the inclusion of SNPs and BMI raised predictive ability in all models as expected; however, results from the AUC in Neural Networks and Logistic Regression did not differ significantly in their prediction accuracy.

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobs, Rianne; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter

2015-01-01

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacobs, Rianne, E-mail: rianne.jacobs@wur.nl; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter [Wageningen University and Research Centre, Biometris (Netherlands)

2015-06-15

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

International Conference on Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

2015-01-01

This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

1996-01-01

The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors

Tuberculosis in Sheltered Homeless Population of Rome: An Integrated Model of Recruitment for Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrizia Laurenti

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The authors show the results of an integrated model for risk management of tuberculosis in a sample of sheltered homeless in Rome. Tuberculin skin test (TST was used for evaluating the prevalence of latent infection (LTBI. In TST positives, expectorate was collected and chest X-ray was achieved. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate determinants of infection. Out of 288 recruited subjects, 259 returned for the TST reading; 45.56% were positive and referred to a specialized center; 70 accessed the health facility and completed the clinical pathway. The risk factors associated to LTBI were male gender (OR=3.72, age over 60 years (OR=3.59, immigrant status (OR=3.73, and obesity (OR=2.19. This approach, based on an integrated social network, guarantees high adherence to screening (89.93%, allowing patients testing positive for latent tuberculosis infection to be diagnosed and rapidly referred to a specialized center.

Technical findings and regulatory analysis for Generic Safety Issue II.E.4.3, ''Containment Integrity Check''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serkiz, A.W.

1988-04-01

This report contains the technical findings and regulatory analysis for Generic Safety Issue II.E.4.3, ''Containment Integrity Check.'' An evaluation of the containment isolation history from 1965 to 1983 reveals that (except for a small number of events) containment integrity has been maintained and that the majority of reported events have been events related to exceeding Technical Specification limits (or 0.6 of the allowable leakage level). In addition, more recent risk analyses have shown that allowable leakage rates even if increased by a factor of 10 would not significantly increase risk. Potential methods of continuous monitoring are identified and evaluated. Therefore, these technical findings and risk evaluations support closure of Generic Safety Issue II.E.4.3

Personality Predicts Mortality Risk: An Integrative Data Analysis of 15 International Longitudinal Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Eileen K; Rutsohn, Joshua P; Turiano, Nicholas A; Bendayan, Rebecca; Batterham, Philip J; Gerstorf, Denis; Katz, Mindy J; Reynolds, Chandra A; Sharp, Emily S; Yoneda, Tomiko B; Bastarache, Emily D; Elleman, Lorien G; Zelinski, Elizabeth M; Johansson, Boo; Kuh, Diana; Barnes, Lisa L; Bennett, David A; Deeg, Dorly J H; Lipton, Richard B; Pedersen, Nancy L; Piccinin, Andrea M; Spiro, Avron; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Willis, Sherry L; Schaie, K Warner; Roan, Carol; Herd, Pamela; Hofer, Scott M; Mroczek, Daniel K

2017-10-01

This study examined the Big Five personality traits as predictors of mortality risk, and smoking as a mediator of that association. Replication was built into the fabric of our design: we used a Coordinated Analysis with 15 international datasets, representing 44,094 participants. We found that high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness were consistent predictors of mortality across studies. Smoking had a small mediating effect for neuroticism. Country and baseline age explained variation in effects: studies with older baseline age showed a pattern of protective effects (HReffects for extraversion. This study demonstrated coordinated analysis as a powerful approach to enhance replicability and reproducibility, especially for aging-related longitudinal research.

Proposal of Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology for Embedded System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Wei; Kageyama, Makoto; Kanemoto, Shigeru

2011-01-01

To do risk analysis and risk evaluation for complicated safety critical embedded systems, there are three things should be paid a good attention: 1) an efficient and integrated model expression of embedded systems: 2) systematic risk analysis based on integrated system model: 3) quantitative risk evaluation for software and hardware integrated system. In this paper, taken electric water boiler as a target system, a proposal of risk analysis and risk evaluation for the embedded system is presented to meet these three purposes. In risk analysis, MFM is used and FT is generated automatically from MFM following some rules: And in risk evaluation, GO-FLOW is used to evaluate the reliability of sensors. And furthermore, FIT is applied to evaluate the safety software logic based on the diversity design concept. Although the electric water boiler is a simple example, it includes the key components of the embedded system like sensors, actuators, and software component. So, the process of modeling, analysis, and evaluation could be applied to other kinds of complicated embedded systems

Systems analysis programs for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) version 5.0, technical reference manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Atwood, C.L.; Galyean, W.J.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume provides information on the principles used in the construction and operation of Version 5.0 of the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. It summarizes the fundamental mathematical concepts of sets and logic, fault trees, and probability. This volume then describes the algorithms that these programs use to construct a fault tree and to obtain the minimal cut sets. It gives the formulas used to obtain the probability of the top event from the minimal cut sets, and the formulas for probabilities that are appropriate under various assumptions concerning repairability and mission time. It defines the measures of basic event importance that these programs can calculate. This volume gives an overview of uncertainty analysis using simple Monte Carlo sampling or Latin Hypercube sampling, and states the algorithms used by these programs to generate random basic event probabilities from various distributions. Further references are given, and a detailed example of the reduction and quantification of a simple fault tree is provided in an appendix

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-11-13

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

The approach to risk analysis in three industries: nuclear power, space systems, and chemical process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1988-01-01

The aerospace, nuclear power, and chemical processing industries are providing much of the incentive for the development and application of advanced risk analysis techniques to engineered systems. Risk analysis must answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? and What are the consequences? The result of such analyses is not only a quantitative answer to the question of 'What is the risk', but, more importantly, a framework for intelligent and visible risk management. Because of the societal importance of the subject industries and the amount of risk analysis activity involved in each, it is interesting to look for commonalities, differences, and, hopefully, a basis for some standardization. Each industry has its strengths: the solid experience base of the chemical industry, the extensive qualification and testing procedures of the space industry, and the integrative and quantitative risk and reliability methodologies developed for the nuclear power industry. In particular, most advances in data handling, systems interaction modeling, and uncertainty analysis have come from the probabilistic risk assessment work in the nuclear safety field. In the final analysis, all three industries would greatly benefit from a more deliberate technology exchange program in the rapidly evolving discipline of quantitative risk analysis. (author)

An integrated safety analysis of intravenous ibuprofen (Caldolor® in adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Southworth SR

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Stephen R Southworth,1 Emily J Woodward,2 Alex Peng,2 Amy D Rock21North Mississippi Sports Medicine and Orthopaedic Clinic, PLLC, Tupelo, MS, 2Department of Research and Development, Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc., Nashville, TN, USAAbstract: Intravenous (IV nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs such as IV ibuprofen are increasingly used as a component of multimodal pain management in the inpatient and outpatient settings. The safety of IV ibuprofen as assessed in ten sponsored clinical studies is presented in this analysis. Overall, 1,752 adult patients have been included in safety and efficacy trials over 11 years; 1,220 of these patients have received IV ibuprofen and 532 received either placebo or comparator medication. The incidence of adverse events (AEs, serious AEs, and changes in vital signs and clinically significant laboratory parameters have been summarized and compared to patients receiving placebo or active comparator drug. Overall, IV ibuprofen has been well tolerated by hospitalized and outpatient patients when administered both prior to surgery and postoperatively as well as for nonsurgical pain or fever. The overall incidence of AEs is lower in patients receiving IV ibuprofen as compared to those receiving placebo in this integrated analysis. Specific analysis of hematological and renal effects showed no increased risk for patients receiving IV ibuprofen. A subset analysis of elderly patients suggests that no dose adjustment is needed in this higher risk population. This integrated safety analysis demonstrates that IV ibuprofen can be safely administered prior to surgery and continued in the postoperative period as a component of multimodal pain management.Keywords: NSAID, surgical pain, fever, perioperative analgesia, critical care, multimodal pain management

Problems in mathematical analysis III integration

CERN Document Server

Kaczor, W J

2003-01-01

We learn by doing. We learn mathematics by doing problems. This is the third volume of Problems in Mathematical Analysis. The topic here is integration for real functions of one real variable. The first chapter is devoted to the Riemann and the Riemann-Stieltjes integrals. Chapter 2 deals with Lebesgue measure and integration. The authors include some famous, and some not so famous, integral inequalities related to Riemann integration. Many of the problems for Lebesgue integration concern convergence theorems and the interchange of limits and integrals. The book closes with a section on Fourier series, with a concentration on Fourier coefficients of functions from particular classes and on basic theorems for convergence of Fourier series. The book is primarily geared toward students in analysis, as a study aid, for problem-solving seminars, or for tutorials. It is also an excellent resource for instructors who wish to incorporate problems into their lectures. Solutions for the problems are provided in the boo...

Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, J.M.

1982-03-01

Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.O.; Hammonds, J.S.

1992-10-01

To compensate for the potential for overly conservative estimates of risk using standard US Environmental Protection Agency methods, an uncertainty analysis should be performed as an integral part of each risk assessment. Uncertainty analyses allow one to obtain quantitative results in the form of confidence intervals that will aid in decision making and will provide guidance for the acquisition of additional data. To perform an uncertainty analysis, one must frequently rely on subjective judgment in the absence of data to estimate the range and a probability distribution describing the extent of uncertainty about a true but unknown value for each parameter of interest. This information is formulated from professional judgment based on an extensive review of literature, analysis of the data, and interviews with experts. Various analytical and numerical techniques are available to allow statistical propagation of the uncertainty in the model parameters to a statement of uncertainty in the risk to a potentially exposed individual. Although analytical methods may be straightforward for relatively simple models, they rapidly become complicated for more involved risk assessments. Because of the tedious efforts required to mathematically derive analytical approaches to propagate uncertainty in complicated risk assessments, numerical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation should be employed. The primary objective of this report is to provide an introductory guide for performing uncertainty analysis in risk assessments being performed for Superfund sites

Regional probabilistic nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling land GIS-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rigina, O.; Baklanov, A.

2002-01-01

The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. A new approach based on probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation was developed. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola NPP, because of: high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and relatively high probability of an airflow trajectory there, and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. (au)

Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

2015-01-01

Prioritization of investments to protect safety and performance of multi-regional transportation networks from adjacent land development is a key concern for infrastructure agencies, land developers, and other stakeholders. Despite ample literature describing relationships between transportation and land use, no evidence-based methods exist for monitoring corridor needs on a large scale. Risk analysis is essential to the preservation of system safety and capacity, including avoidance of costly retrofits, regret, and belated action. This paper introduces the Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) for prioritizing corridor segments that are vulnerable to adjacent land development. The method integrates several components: (i) estimation of likelihood of adjacent land development, using influence diagram and rule-based modeling, (ii) characterization of access point density using geospatial methods, and (iii) plural-model evaluation of corridors, monitoring indices of land development likelihood, access point densities, and traffic volumes. The results inform deployment of options that include closing access points, restricting development, and negotiation of agencies and developers. The CTA method is demonstrated on a region encompassing 6000 centerline miles (about 10,000 km) of transportation corridors. The method will be of interest to managers investing in safety and performance of infrastructure systems, balancing safety, financial, and other criteria of concern for diverse stakeholders. - Highlights: • The Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) method for prioritizing transportation corridors. • The CTA method studies corridors vulnerable to adjacent land development. • The CTA method quantifies the influence of risk scenarios on agency priorities. • The CTA method is demonstrated on 6000 miles of critical transportation corridor

A spatial analysis of integrated risk: vulnerability of ecosystem services provisioning to different hazards in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Pártl, Adam; Vačkář, David; Loučková, Blanka; Lorencová, Eliška

2017-01-01

Roč. 89, č. 3 (2017), s. 1185-1204 ISSN 0921-030X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MV VG20122015091 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : Ecosystems * Ecosystem services * Czech Republic * Integrated risk assessment * Vulnerability * GIS Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.833, year: 2016

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

From Invention to Innovation: Risk Analysis to Integrate One Health Technology in the Dairy Farm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Lombardo

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Current Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP approaches mainly fit for food industry, while their application in primary food production is still rudimentary. The European food safety framework calls for science-based support to the primary producers’ mandate for legal, scientific, and ethical responsibility in food supply. The multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary project ALERT pivots on the development of the technological invention (BEST platform and application of its measurable (biomarkers—as well as scientific advances in risk analysis—at strategic points of the milk chain for time and cost-effective early identification of unwanted and/or unexpected events of both microbiological and toxicological nature. Health-oriented innovation is complex and subject to multiple variables. Through field activities in a dairy farm in central Italy, we explored individual components of the dairy farm system to overcome concrete challenges for the application of translational science in real life and (veterinary public health. Based on an HACCP-like approach in animal production, the farm characterization focused on points of particular attention (POPAs and critical control points to draw a farm management decision tree under the One Health view (environment, animal health, food safety. The analysis was based on the integrated use of checklists (environment; agricultural and zootechnical practices; animal health and welfare and laboratory analyses of well water, feed and silage, individual fecal samples, and bulk milk. The understanding of complex systems is a condition to accomplish true innovation through new technologies. BEST is a detection and monitoring system in support of production security, quality and safety: a grid of its (biomarkers can find direct application in critical points for early identification of potential hazards or anomalies. The HACCP-like self-monitoring in primary production is feasible, as well as the

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

[Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Adversarial risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

2015-01-01

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

2017-05-01

Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrative analysis of multiple diverse omics datasets by sparse group multitask regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongdong eLin

2014-10-01

Full Text Available A variety of high throughput genome-wide assays enable the exploration of genetic risk factors underlying complex traits. Although these studies have remarkable impact on identifying susceptible biomarkers, they suffer from issues such as limited sample size and low reproducibility. Combining individual studies of different genetic levels/platforms has the promise to improve the power and consistency of biomarker identification. In this paper, we propose a novel integrative method, namely sparse group multitask regression, for integrating diverse omics datasets, platforms and populations to identify risk genes/factors of complex diseases. This method combines multitask learning with sparse group regularization, which will: 1 treat the biomarker identification in each single study as a task and then combine them by multitask learning; 2 group variables from all studies for identifying significant genes; 3 enforce sparse constraint on groups of variables to overcome the ‘small sample, but large variables’ problem. We introduce two sparse group penalties: sparse group lasso and sparse group ridge in our multitask model, and provide an effective algorithm for each model. In addition, we propose a significance test for the identification of potential risk genes. Two simulation studies are performed to evaluate the performance of our integrative method by comparing it with conventional meta-analysis method. The results show that our sparse group multitask method outperforms meta-analysis method significantly. In an application to our osteoporosis studies, 7 genes are identified as significant genes by our method and are found to have significant effects in other three independent studies for validation. The most significant gene SOD2 has been identified in our previous osteoporosis study involving the same expression dataset. Several other genes such as TREML2, HTR1E and GLO1 are shown to be novel susceptible genes for osteoporosis, as confirmed

Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

Science.gov (United States)

Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

2004-04-01

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

2004-01-01

Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-07-15

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

2013-09-15

Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

Science.gov (United States)

Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

2008-06-01

The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Garcin

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed. Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka.

The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka.

This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

Atypical audiovisual speech integration in infants at risk for autism.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeanne A Guiraud

Full Text Available The language difficulties often seen in individuals with autism might stem from an inability to integrate audiovisual information, a skill important for language development. We investigated whether 9-month-old siblings of older children with autism, who are at an increased risk of developing autism, are able to integrate audiovisual speech cues. We used an eye-tracker to record where infants looked when shown a screen displaying two faces of the same model, where one face is articulating/ba/and the other/ga/, with one face congruent with the syllable sound being presented simultaneously, the other face incongruent. This method was successful in showing that infants at low risk can integrate audiovisual speech: they looked for the same amount of time at the mouths in both the fusible visual/ga/- audio/ba/and the congruent visual/ba/- audio/ba/displays, indicating that the auditory and visual streams fuse into a McGurk-type of syllabic percept in the incongruent condition. It also showed that low-risk infants could perceive a mismatch between auditory and visual cues: they looked longer at the mouth in the mismatched, non-fusible visual/ba/- audio/ga/display compared with the congruent visual/ga/- audio/ga/display, demonstrating that they perceive an uncommon, and therefore interesting, speech-like percept when looking at the incongruent mouth (repeated ANOVA: displays x fusion/mismatch conditions interaction: F(1,16 = 17.153, p = 0.001. The looking behaviour of high-risk infants did not differ according to the type of display, suggesting difficulties in matching auditory and visual information (repeated ANOVA, displays x conditions interaction: F(1,25 = 0.09, p = 0.767, in contrast to low-risk infants (repeated ANOVA: displays x conditions x low/high-risk groups interaction: F(1,41 = 4.466, p = 0.041. In some cases this reduced ability might lead to the poor communication skills characteristic of autism.

Integrated Radiation Analysis and Design Tools

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Integrated Radiation Analysis and Design Tools (IRADT) Project develops and maintains an integrated tool set that collects the current best practices, databases,...

Integration of laboratory bioassays into the risk-based corrective action process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, D.; Messina, F.; Clark, J.

1995-01-01

Recent data generated by the Gas Research Institute (GRI) and others indicate that residual hydrocarbon may be bound/sequestered in soil such that it is unavailable for microbial degradation, and thus possibly not bioavailable to human/ecological receptors. A reduction in bioavailability would directly equate to reduced exposure and, therefore, potentially less-conservative risk-based cleanup soil goals. Laboratory bioassays which measure bioavailability/toxicity can be cost-effectively integrated into the risk-based corrective action process. However, in order to maximize the cost-effective application of bioassays several site-specific parameters should be addressed up front. This paper discusses (1) the evaluation of parameters impacting the application of bioassays to soils contaminated with metals and/or petroleum hydrocarbons and (2) the cost-effective integration of bioassays into a tiered ASTM type framework for risk-based corrective action

Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J.; Eckelman, Matthew; Isaacs, Jacqueline A.; Pourzahedi, Leila

2015-01-01

The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation

Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J., E-mail: c.bosso@neu.edu [Northeastern University, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs (United States); Eckelman, Matthew [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States); Isaacs, Jacqueline A. [Northeastern University, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering (United States); Pourzahedi, Leila [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States)

2015-08-15

The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation.

Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

Science.gov (United States)

Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

2016-01-01

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study).

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stol, D.; Badenbroek, I.; Hollander, M.; Nielen, M.; Schellevis, F.; Wit, N. de

2014-01-01

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study): a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial protocol. Rationale: The increasing prevalence of cardiometabolic disease (CMD), including cardiovascular

Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

2012-03-01

Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Strategic and Legal Risks of Work-Integrated Learning: An Enterprise Risk Management Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Craig

2017-01-01

Work-integrated learning (WIL) is a risky business for universities. WIL is a strategic risk worthy of pursuing by universities in the prevailing higher education environment, which is characterized by competition, changes in funding arrangements and stakeholder demand for WIL. Nevertheless the strategic opportunities that WIL presents cannot be…

The Vehicle Integrated Performance Analysis Experience: Reconnecting With Technical Integration

Science.gov (United States)

McGhee, D. S.

2006-01-01

Very early in the Space Launch Initiative program, a small team of engineers at MSFC proposed a process for performing system-level assessments of a launch vehicle. Aimed primarily at providing insight and making NASA a smart buyer, the Vehicle Integrated Performance Analysis (VIPA) team was created. The difference between the VIPA effort and previous integration attempts is that VIPA a process using experienced people from various disciplines, which focuses them on a technically integrated assessment. The foundations of VIPA s process are described. The VIPA team also recognized the need to target early detailed analysis toward identifying significant systems issues. This process is driven by the T-model for technical integration. VIPA s approach to performing system-level technical integration is discussed in detail. The VIPA process significantly enhances the development and monitoring of realizable project requirements. VIPA s assessment validates the concept s stated performance, identifies significant issues either with the concept or the requirements, and then reintegrates these issues to determine impacts. This process is discussed along with a description of how it may be integrated into a program s insight and review process. The VIPA process has gained favor with both engineering and project organizations for being responsive and insightful

Risk and Work Configuration Management as a Function of Integrated Safety Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lana Buehrer; Michele Kelly; Fran Lemieux; Fred Williams

2007-01-01

National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec), has established a work management program and corresponding electronic Facilities and Operations Management Information System (e-FOM) to implement Integrated Safety Management (ISM). The management of work scopes, the identification of hazards, and the establishment of implementing controls are reviewed and approved through electronic signatures. Through the execution of the program and the implementation of the electronic system, NSTec staff work within controls and utilize feedback and improvement process. The Integrated Work Control Manual further implements the five functions of ISM at the Activity level. By adding the Risk and Work Configuration Management program, NSTec establishes risk acceptance (business and physical) for liabilities within the performance direction and work management processes. Requirements, roles, and responsibilities are specifically identified in the program while e-FOM provides the interface and establishes the flowdown from the Safety Chain to work and facilities management processes to company work-related directives, and finally to Subject Matter Expert concurrence. The Program establishes, within the defined management structure, management levels for risk identification, risk mitigation (controls), and risk acceptance (business and physical) within the Safety Chain of Responsibility. The Program also implements Integrated Safeguards and Security Management within the NSTec Safety Chain of Responsibility. Once all information has been entered into e-FOM, approved, and captured as data, the information becomes searchable and sortable by hazard, location, organization, mitigating controls, etc

On the Value of Monitoring Information for the Structural Integrity and Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thöns, Sebastian

2018-01-01

facilitates the assessment of the value of information associated with SHM. The principal approach for the quantification of the value of SHM is formulated by modeling the fundamental decision of performing SHM or not in conjunction with their expected utilities. The expected utilities are calculated....... The calculation of the expected utilities necessitates a comprehensive and rigorous modeling, which is introduced close to the original formulations and for which analysis characteristics and simplifications are described and derived. The framework provides the basis for the optimization of the structural risk......This article introduces an approach and framework for the quantification of the value of structural health monitoring (SHM) in the context of the structural risk and integrity management for systems.The quantification of the value of SHM builds upon the Bayesian decision and utility theory, which...

Further Confirmation of Germline Glioma Risk Variant rs78378222 in TP53 and Its Implication in Tumor Tissues via Integrative Analysis of TCGA Data

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhaoming; Rajaraman, Preetha; Melin, Beatrice S.; Chung, Charles C.; Zhang, Weijia; McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; Michaud, Dominique; Yeager, Meredith; Ahlbom, Anders; Albanes, Demetrius; Andersson, Ulrika; Beane Freeman, Laura E.; Buring, Julie E.; Butler, Mary Ann; Carreón, Tania; Feychting, Maria; Gapstur, Susan M.; Gaziano, J. Michael; Giles, Graham G.; Hallmans, Goran; Henriksson, Roger; Hoffman-Bolton, Judith; Inskip, Peter D.; Kitahara, Cari M.; Le Marchand, Loic; Linet, Martha S.; Li, Shengchao; Peters, Ulrike; Purdue, Mark P.; Rothman, Nathaniel; Ruder, Avima M.; Sesso, Howard D.; Severi, Gianluca; Stampfer, Meir; Stevens, Victoria L.; Visvanathan, Kala; Wang, Sophia S.; White, Emily; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Hoover, Robert; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Hartge, Patricia; Chanock, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

We confirmed strong association of rs78378222:A>C (per allele odds ratio [OR] = 3.14; P = 6.48 × 10−11), a germline rare single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TP53, via imputation of a genome-wide association study of glioma (1,856 cases and 4,955 controls). We subsequently performed integrative analyses on the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data for GBM (glioblastoma multiforme) and LUAD (lung adenocarcinoma). Based on SNP data, we imputed genotypes for rs78378222 and selected individuals carrying rare risk allele (C). Using RNA sequencing data, we observed aberrant transcripts with ~3 kb longer than normal for those individuals. Using exome sequencing data, we further showed that loss of haplotype carrying common protective allele (A) occurred somatically in GBM but not in LUAD. Our bioinformatic analysis suggests rare risk allele (C) disrupts mRNA termination, and an allelic loss of a genomic region harboring common protective allele (A) occurs during tumor initiation or progression for glioma. PMID:25907361

Social Integration and Reduced Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women: The Role of Lifestyle Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shun-Chiao; Glymour, Maria; Cornelis, Marilyn; Walter, Stefan; Rimm, Eric B; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D

2017-06-09

Higher social integration is associated with lower cardiovascular mortality; however, whether it is associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in women, and whether associations differ by case fatality are unclear. This study sought to examine the associations between social integration and risk of incident CHD in a large female prospective cohort. Seventy-six thousand three hundred and sixty-two women in the Nurses' Health Study, free of CHD and stroke at baseline (1992), were followed until 2014. Social integration was assessed by a simplified Berkman-Syme Social Network Index every 4 years. End points included nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal CHD. Two thousand three hundred and seventy-two incident CHD events occurred throughout follow-up. Adjusting for demographic, health/medical risk factors, and depressive symptoms, being socially integrated was significantly associated with lower CHD risk, particularly fatal CHD. The most socially integrated women had a hazard ratio of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.73) of developing fatal CHD compared with those least socially integrated ( P for trend social integration and nonfatal myocardial infarction risk were largely explained by health-promoting behaviors, particularly through differences in cigarette smoking; however, the association with fatal CHD risk remained after accounting for these behaviors and, thus, may involve more direct biological mechanisms. Social integration is inversely associated with CHD incidence in women, but is largely explained by lifestyle/behavioral pathways. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Patient Segmentation Analysis Offers Significant Benefits For Integrated Care And Support.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuik, Sabine I; Mayer, Erik K; Darzi, Ara

2016-05-01

Integrated care aims to organize care around the patient instead of the provider. It is therefore crucial to understand differences across patients and their needs. Segmentation analysis that uses big data can help divide a patient population into distinct groups, which can then be targeted with care models and intervention programs tailored to their needs. In this article we explore the potential applications of patient segmentation in integrated care. We propose a framework for population strategies in integrated care-whole populations, subpopulations, and high-risk populations-and show how patient segmentation can support these strategies. Through international case examples, we illustrate practical considerations such as choosing a segmentation logic, accessing data, and tailoring care models. Important issues for policy makers to consider are trade-offs between simplicity and precision, trade-offs between customized and off-the-shelf solutions, and the availability of linked data sets. We conclude that segmentation can provide many benefits to integrated care, and we encourage policy makers to support its use. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

Integrating LCA and Risk Assessment for Decision Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks.......The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks....

Analysis of the effect of corporate governance attributes on risk management practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raef Gouiaa

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Despite recent increased risk research attention being focussed on the Canadian and international scene, there are few research studies that specifically address the relation between corporate governance systems and risk management practices. This paper examines the relation between corporate governance systems and enterprise risk management. More specifically, we analyze how corporate governance attributes and particularly board characteristics can affect risk management practices in the context of Canadian listed companies. Using a content analysis approach, the level of exposure to risk in terms of likelihood, the consequences of such risk and the strategies for managing that risk were identified for each type of risk. The results reveal that corporate governance attributes related to board’s structure, directors’ characteristics and the board's operating process play a significant and important role in establishing an integrative risk management approach. The results show that directors’ characteristics and the board's process significantly determine the quality of risk management through the level of risk-taking in decisions, especially in terms of financial risks.

Integrating emerging earth science technologies into disaster risk management: an enterprise architecture approach

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, J. D.; Hao, W.; Chettri, S. R.

2014-12-01

Disaster risk management has grown to rely on earth observations, multi-source data analysis, numerical modeling, and interagency information sharing. The practice and outcomes of disaster risk management will likely undergo further change as several emerging earth science technologies come of age: mobile devices; location-based services; ubiquitous sensors; drones; small satellites; satellite direct readout; Big Data analytics; cloud computing; Web services for predictive modeling, semantic reconciliation, and collaboration; and many others. Integrating these new technologies well requires developing and adapting them to meet current needs; but also rethinking current practice to draw on new capabilities to reach additional objectives. This requires a holistic view of the disaster risk management enterprise and of the analytical or operational capabilities afforded by these technologies. One helpful tool for this assessment, the GEOSS Architecture for the Use of Remote Sensing Products in Disaster Management and Risk Assessment (Evans & Moe, 2013), considers all phases of the disaster risk management lifecycle for a comprehensive set of natural hazard types, and outlines common clusters of activities and their use of information and computation resources. We are using these architectural views, together with insights from current practice, to highlight effective, interrelated roles for emerging earth science technologies in disaster risk management. These roles may be helpful in creating roadmaps for research and development investment at national and international levels.

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; Pmedia (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

A Scalable Data Integration and Analysis Architecture for Sensor Data of Pediatric Asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

Stripelis, Dimitris; Ambite, José Luis; Chiang, Yao-Yi; Eckel, Sandrah P; Habre, Rima

2017-04-01

According to the Centers for Disease Control, in the United States there are 6.8 million children living with asthma. Despite the importance of the disease, the available prognostic tools are not sufficient for biomedical researchers to thoroughly investigate the potential risks of the disease at scale. To overcome these challenges we present a big data integration and analysis infrastructure developed by our Data and Software Coordination and Integration Center (DSCIC) of the NIBIB-funded Pediatric Research using Integrated Sensor Monitoring Systems (PRISMS) program. Our goal is to help biomedical researchers to efficiently predict and prevent asthma attacks. The PRISMS-DSCIC is responsible for collecting, integrating, storing, and analyzing real-time environmental, physiological and behavioral data obtained from heterogeneous sensor and traditional data sources. Our architecture is based on the Apache Kafka, Spark and Hadoop frameworks and PostgreSQL DBMS. A main contribution of this work is extending the Spark framework with a mediation layer, based on logical schema mappings and query rewriting, to facilitate data analysis over a consistent harmonized schema. The system provides both batch and stream analytic capabilities over the massive data generated by wearable and fixed sensors.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F.; Diallo, I.; Samand, A.; Hawkins, M.; Oberlin, O.; Lefkopoulos, D.

2006-01-01

In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Diallo, I.; Samand, A. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, (France); Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Hawkins, M. [Centre for Childhood Cancer Survivor Studies, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (United Kingdom); Oberlin, O. [Paediatrics Department, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Lefkopoulos, D. [Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France)

2006-07-01

In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Securing public transportation systems an integrated decision analysis framework for the prevention of terrorist attacks as example

CERN Document Server

Brauner, Florian

2017-01-01

Florian Brauner addresses the risk reduction effects of security measures (SecMe) as well as economic and social effects using terrorist threats in public transportation as use case. SecMe increase the level of security but cause interferences and restrictions for customers (e.g. privacy). This study identifies the interferences and analyzes the acceptance with an empirical survey of customers. A composite indicator for the acceptance of different SecMe is developed and integrated into a risk management framework for multi-criteria decision analysis achieving the right balance of risk reduction, costs, and social acceptance. Contents Assessment of Security Measures for Risk Management Measurement of Objective Effectiveness of Security Measures Against Terrorist Attacks Determination of Subjective Effects of Security Measures (Customer Acceptance Analysis) Cost Analysis of Security Measures Multi-Criteria Decision Support Systems Target Groups Scientists with Interest in Civil Security Research Providers and S...

Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of Accounting Information Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudiu BRANDAS

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The use of IT in the financial and accounting processes is growing fast and this leads to an increase in the research and professional concerns about the risks, control and audit of Ac-counting Information Systems (AIS. In this context, the risk and control of AIS approach is a central component of processes for IT audit, financial audit and IT Governance. Recent studies in the literature on the concepts of risk, control and auditing of AIS outline two approaches: (1 a professional approach in which we can fit ISA, COBIT, IT Risk, COSO and SOX, and (2 a research oriented approach in which we emphasize research on continuous auditing and fraud using information technology. Starting from the limits of existing approaches, our study is aimed to developing and testing an Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of AIS on three cycles of business processes: purchases cycle, sales cycle and cash cycle in order to improve the efficiency of IT Governance, as well as ensuring integrity, reality, accuracy and availability of financial statements.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

2012-11-01

Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.

Dietary Cholesterol Intake and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojing Lin

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Multiple epidemiologic studies have evaluated the relationship between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk, but the association is controversial and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of case-control studies and cohort studies was conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary cholesterol intake and lung cancer risk in this study. A relevant literature search up to October 2017 was performed in Web of Science, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Sinomed, and VIP Journal Integration Platform. Ten case-control studies and six cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the risk estimates were pooled using either fixed or random effects models. The case-control studies with a total of 6894 lung cancer cases and 29,736 controls showed that dietary cholesterol intake was positively associated with lung cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.70, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.43–2.03. However, there was no evidence of an association between dietary cholesterol intake and risk of lung cancer among the 241,920 participants and 1769 lung cancer cases in the cohort studies (Relative Risk = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.94–1.25. Due to inconsistent results from case-control and cohort studies, it is difficult to draw any conclusion regarding the effects of dietary cholesterol intake on lung cancer risk. Carefully designed and well-conducted cohort studies are needed to identify the association between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk.

Does market integration buffer risk, erode traditional sharing practices and increase inequality? A test among Bolivian forager-farmers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gurven, Michael; Jaeggi, Adrian V; von Rueden, Chris; Hooper, Paul L; Kaplan, Hillard

2015-08-01

Sharing and exchange are common practices for minimizing food insecurity in rural populations. The advent of markets and monetization in egalitarian indigenous populations presents an alternative means of managing risk, with the potential impact of eroding traditional networks. We test whether market involvement buffers several types of risk and reduces traditional sharing behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of the Bolivian Amazon. Results vary based on type of market integration and scale of analysis (household vs. village), consistent with the notion that local culture and ecology shape risk management strategies. Greater wealth and income were unassociated with the reliance on others for food, or on reciprocity, but wealth was associated with a greater proportion of food given to others (i.e., giving intensity) and a greater number of sharing partners (i.e., sharing breadth). Across villages, greater mean income was negatively associated with reciprocity, but economic inequality was positively associated with giving intensity and sharing breadth. Incipient market integration does not necessarily replace traditional buffering strategies but instead can often enhance social capital.

Component of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

2018-01-01

systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

Integral data analysis for resonance parameters determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, N.M.; Leal, L.C.; Derrien, H.

1997-09-01

Neutron time-of-flight experiments have long been used to determine resonance parameters. Those resonance parameters have then been used in calculations of integral quantities such as Maxwellian averages or resonance integrals, and results of those calculations in turn have been used as a criterion for acceptability of the resonance analysis. However, the calculations were inadequate because covariances on the parameter values were not included in the calculations. In this report an effort to correct for that deficiency is documented: (1) the R-matrix analysis code SAMMY has been modified to include integral quantities of importance, (2) directly within the resonance parameter analysis, and (3) to determine the best fit to both differential (microscopic) and integral (macroscopic) data simultaneously. This modification was implemented because it is expected to have an impact on the intermediate-energy range that is important for criticality safety applications

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

Prevalence of anal infection due to high-risk human papillomavirus and analysis of E2 gene integrity among women with cervical abnormalities.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Losa, María Del Refugio; Puerto-Solís, Marylin; Ayora-Talavera, Guadalupe; Gómez-Carvallo, Jesús; Euán-López, Alejandra; Cisneros-Cutz, José I; Rosado-López, Ariel; Echeverría Salazar, Jesúa; Conde-Ferráez, Laura

2018-04-01

High-risk human papillomaviruses (HR-HPV) infection has been associated with 90% of anal cancer cases. Women with abnormal cytology are a high-risk group to develop anal neoplasia. The aim of this study is to describe the prevalence and epidemiology of HR-HPV 16, 18, 45, and 58 anal infections in women with cervical abnormalities, as well as to assess E2 gene integrity. A cross-sectional study was performed on 311 cervical and 311 anal samples from patients with abnormal cytology in two colposcopy clinics in Yucatan, Mexico. A specific PCR for oncogenes was performed in order to identify HVP 16, 18, 45 and 58. Real time PCR was used to amplify the whole HPV 16, 18, and 58 E2 gene to verify its integrity in anal samples. High risk HPV 16, 18, 58, and/or 45 were found in 41.47% (129/311) of cervical samples, and in 30.8% (96/331) of anal samples, with 18% (57/311) of the patients being positive in both samples. The same genotypes in both anatomical sites were observed in 11.25% (35/311). The E2 gene was disrupted in 82% of all tested samples. The frequency of genome disruption viral integration in anal samples by genotype was: HPV 58 (97.2%); HPV 16 (72.4%), and HPV 18 (0%). Women with cervical disease have HR-HPV anal infections, and most of them have the E2 gene disrupted, which represents a risk to develop anal cancer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

2015-01-01

Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

Effects of social integration on depressive symptoms in Korea: analysis from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2006-12).

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jae-Hyun; Park, Eun-Cheol; Lee, Sang Gyu; Lee, Yunhwan; Jang, Sung-In

2017-05-01

Objectives The effects of a range of types of social integration and patterns of change in social integration over time were examined directly in relation to depressive symptoms in a large sample of the Korean population aged ≥45 years. Methods Data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) between 2006 and 2012 were assessed using longitudinal data analysis. We included 10242 research subjects at baseline (2006) and based the primary analysis on generalised linear mixed models to examine association between social integration and depressive symptom. Results The odds ratio (OR) for depressive symptoms in individuals at the lowest level of social integration was 1.539-fold higher (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.360-1.742) that that for those at highest level of social integration. Results of subgroup analysis according to gender revealed a similar trend. A five-class linear solution fit the data best; Class 1 (lowest constant social integration level, 10.5% of the sample) was significantly associated with the highest risk of depressive symptoms (OR 1.933, 95% CI 1.706-2.190). Conclusions The results of the present study provide a scientific basis for the specific association between the level of social integration and changes in social integration pattern with the risk of depressive symptoms in current practice. Therefore, interventions to provide emotional support for older adults via social integration may be important to protect against depressive symptoms. What is known about the topic? Although there has been considerable discussion about social integration among old adults, few studies related to effect of social integration on depression have been conducted. What does this paper add? The findings of the present study indicate that a high level of social integration is inversely related to depressive symptoms and is also associated with a substantial positive effect on depressive symptoms among individuals aged ≥45 years. What are the

Integrated cost-effectiveness analysis of agri-environmental measures for water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Balana, Bedru B; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Martin-Ortega, Julia; Dunn, Sarah

2015-09-15

This paper presents an application of integrated methodological approach for identifying cost-effective combinations of agri-environmental measures to achieve water quality targets. The methodological approach involves linking hydro-chemical modelling with economic costs of mitigation measures. The utility of the approach was explored for the River Dee catchment in North East Scotland, examining the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollutants. In-stream nitrate concentration was modelled using the STREAM-N and phosphorus using INCA-P model. Both models were first run for baseline conditions and then their effectiveness for changes in land management was simulated. Costs were based on farm income foregone, capital and operational expenditures. The costs and effects data were integrated using 'Risk Solver Platform' optimization in excel to produce the most cost-effective combination of measures by which target nutrient reductions could be attained at a minimum economic cost. The analysis identified different combination of measures as most cost-effective for the two pollutants. An important aspect of this paper is integration of model-based effectiveness estimates with economic cost of measures for cost-effectiveness analysis of land and water management options. The methodological approach developed is not limited to the two pollutants and the selected agri-environmental measures considered in the paper; the approach can be adapted to the cost-effectiveness analysis of any catchment-scale environmental management options. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

Science.gov (United States)

Parkash Gupta, Surya

2015-04-01

The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

Real analysis measure theory, integration, and Hilbert spaces

CERN Document Server

Stein, Elias M

2005-01-01

Real Analysis is the third volume in the Princeton Lectures in Analysis, a series of four textbooks that aim to present, in an integrated manner, the core areas of analysis. Here the focus is on the development of measure and integration theory, differentiation and integration, Hilbert spaces, and Hausdorff measure and fractals. This book reflects the objective of the series as a whole: to make plain the organic unity that exists between the various parts of the subject, and to illustrate the wide applicability of ideas of analysis to other fields of mathematics and science. After

Derailment-based Fault Tree Analysis on Risk Management of Railway Turnout Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; An, Min; Gigante-Barrera, Ángel

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are fundamental mechanical infrastructures, which allow a rolling stock to divert one direction to another. As those are of a large number of engineering subsystems, e.g. track, signalling, earthworks, these particular sub-systems are expected to induce high potential through various kind of failure mechanisms. This could be a cause of any catastrophic event. A derailment, one of undesirable events in railway operation, often results, albeit rare occurs, in damaging to rolling stock, railway infrastructure and disrupt service, and has the potential to cause casualties and even loss of lives. As a result, it is quite significant that a well-designed risk analysis is performed to create awareness of hazards and to identify what parts of the systems may be at risk. This study will focus on all types of environment based failures as a result of numerous contributing factors noted officially as accident reports. This risk analysis is designed to help industry to minimise the occurrence of accidents at railway turnouts. The methodology of the study relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood, and is based on statistical multiple factors-integrated accident rate analysis. The study is prepared in the way of establishing product risks and faults, and showing the impact of potential process by Boolean algebra.

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

1989-01-01

A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Zhang

Full Text Available Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM and recurrent otitis media (ROM have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001. An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001. Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001. A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04. Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04. Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03. Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yang, Xiaomei; Zee, van der Sjoerd E.A.T.M.; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G.; Ritsema, Coen J.; Geissen, Violette

2016-01-01

Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide

Methodology for dimensional variation analysis of ITER integrated systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuentes, F. Javier; Trouvé, Vincent; Cordier, Jean-Jacques; Reich, Jens

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Tokamak dimensional management methodology, based on 3D variation analysis, is presented. • Dimensional Variation Model implementation workflow is described. • Methodology phases are described in detail. The application of this methodology to the tolerance analysis of ITER Vacuum Vessel is presented. • Dimensional studies are a valuable tool for the assessment of Tokamak PCR (Project Change Requests), DR (Deviation Requests) and NCR (Non-Conformance Reports). - Abstract: The ITER machine consists of a large number of complex systems highly integrated, with critical functional requirements and reduced design clearances to minimize the impact in cost and performances. Tolerances and assembly accuracies in critical areas could have a serious impact in the final performances, compromising the machine assembly and plasma operation. The management of tolerances allocated to part manufacture and assembly processes, as well as the control of potential deviations and early mitigation of non-compliances with the technical requirements, is a critical activity on the project life cycle. A 3D tolerance simulation analysis of ITER Tokamak machine has been developed based on 3DCS dedicated software. This integrated dimensional variation model is representative of Tokamak manufacturing functional tolerances and assembly processes, predicting accurate values for the amount of variation on critical areas. This paper describes the detailed methodology to implement and update the Tokamak Dimensional Variation Model. The model is managed at system level. The methodology phases are illustrated by its application to the Vacuum Vessel (VV), considering the status of maturity of VV dimensional variation model. The following topics are described in this paper: • Model description and constraints. • Model implementation workflow. • Management of input and output data. • Statistical analysis and risk assessment. The management of the integration studies based on

Methodology for dimensional variation analysis of ITER integrated systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fuentes, F. Javier, E-mail: FranciscoJavier.Fuentes@iter.org [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon—CS 90046, 13067 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Trouvé, Vincent [Assystem Engineering & Operation Services, rue J-M Jacquard CS 60117, 84120 Pertuis (France); Cordier, Jean-Jacques; Reich, Jens [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon—CS 90046, 13067 St Paul-lez-Durance (France)

2016-11-01

Highlights: • Tokamak dimensional management methodology, based on 3D variation analysis, is presented. • Dimensional Variation Model implementation workflow is described. • Methodology phases are described in detail. The application of this methodology to the tolerance analysis of ITER Vacuum Vessel is presented. • Dimensional studies are a valuable tool for the assessment of Tokamak PCR (Project Change Requests), DR (Deviation Requests) and NCR (Non-Conformance Reports). - Abstract: The ITER machine consists of a large number of complex systems highly integrated, with critical functional requirements and reduced design clearances to minimize the impact in cost and performances. Tolerances and assembly accuracies in critical areas could have a serious impact in the final performances, compromising the machine assembly and plasma operation. The management of tolerances allocated to part manufacture and assembly processes, as well as the control of potential deviations and early mitigation of non-compliances with the technical requirements, is a critical activity on the project life cycle. A 3D tolerance simulation analysis of ITER Tokamak machine has been developed based on 3DCS dedicated software. This integrated dimensional variation model is representative of Tokamak manufacturing functional tolerances and assembly processes, predicting accurate values for the amount of variation on critical areas. This paper describes the detailed methodology to implement and update the Tokamak Dimensional Variation Model. The model is managed at system level. The methodology phases are illustrated by its application to the Vacuum Vessel (VV), considering the status of maturity of VV dimensional variation model. The following topics are described in this paper: • Model description and constraints. • Model implementation workflow. • Management of input and output data. • Statistical analysis and risk assessment. The management of the integration studies based on

Semantic web for integrated network analysis in biomedicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Huajun; Ding, Li; Wu, Zhaohui; Yu, Tong; Dhanapalan, Lavanya; Chen, Jake Y

2009-03-01

The Semantic Web technology enables integration of heterogeneous data on the World Wide Web by making the semantics of data explicit through formal ontologies. In this article, we survey the feasibility and state of the art of utilizing the Semantic Web technology to represent, integrate and analyze the knowledge in various biomedical networks. We introduce a new conceptual framework, semantic graph mining, to enable researchers to integrate graph mining with ontology reasoning in network data analysis. Through four case studies, we demonstrate how semantic graph mining can be applied to the analysis of disease-causal genes, Gene Ontology category cross-talks, drug efficacy analysis and herb-drug interactions analysis.

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

1995-10-01

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

Compound risk judgment in tasks with both idiosyncratic and systematic risk: The "Robust Beauty" of additive probability integration.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundh, Joakim; Juslin, Peter

2018-02-01

In this study, we explore how people integrate risks of assets in a simulated financial market into a judgment of the conjunctive risk that all assets decrease in value, both when assets are independent and when there is a systematic risk present affecting all assets. Simulations indicate that while mental calculation according to naïve application of probability theory is best when the assets are independent, additive or exemplar-based algorithms perform better when systematic risk is high. Considering that people tend to intuitively approach compound probability tasks using additive heuristics, we expected the participants to find it easiest to master tasks with high systematic risk - the most complex tasks from the standpoint of probability theory - while they should shift to probability theory or exemplar memory with independence between the assets. The results from 3 experiments confirm that participants shift between strategies depending on the task, starting off with the default of additive integration. In contrast to results in similar multiple cue judgment tasks, there is little evidence for use of exemplar memory. The additive heuristics also appear to be surprisingly context-sensitive, with limited generalization across formally very similar tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategies for Integrated Analysis of Genetic, Epigenetic, and Gene Expression Variation in Cancer: Addressing the Challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thingholm, Louise Bruun; Andersen, Lars; Makalic, Enes

2016-01-01

to integration strategies used for analyzing genetic risk factors for cancer. We critically examine the ability of these strategies to handle the complexity of the human genome and also accommodate information about the biological and functional interactions between the elements that have been measured......The development and progression of cancer, a collection of diseases with complex genetic architectures, is facilitated by the interplay of multiple etiological factors. This complexity challenges the traditional single-platform study design and calls for an integrated approach to data analysis...

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

Advanced Concept Architecture Design and Integrated Analysis (ACADIA)

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-03

1 Advanced Concept Architecture Design and Integrated Analysis (ACADIA) Submitted to the National Institute of Aerospace (NIA) on...Research Report 20161001 - 20161030 Advanced Concept Architecture Design and Integrated Analysis (ACADIA) W911NF-16-2-0229 8504Cedric Justin, Youngjun

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

Science.gov (United States)

Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

2010-05-01

Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

Information Security Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2010-01-01

Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Bias in risk-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.

1985-01-01

Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

Reducing acquisition risk through integrated systems of systems engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Andrew; Hobson, Brian; Bouwens, Christina

2016-05-01

In the fall of 2015, the Joint Staff J7 (JS J7) sponsored the Bold Quest (BQ) 15.2 event and conducted planning and coordination to combine this event into a joint event with the Army Warfighting Assessment (AWA) 16.1 sponsored by the U.S. Army. This multipurpose event combined a Joint/Coalition exercise (JS J7) with components of testing, training, and experimentation required by the Army. In support of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology (ASA(ALT)) System of Systems Engineering and Integration (SoSE&I), Always On-On Demand (AO-OD) used a system of systems (SoS) engineering approach to develop a live, virtual, constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) to support risk mitigation utilizing this complex and challenging exercise environment for a system preparing to enter limited user test (LUT). AO-OD executed a requirements-based SoS engineering process starting with user needs and objectives from Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD), Patriot units, Coalition Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CISR), Focused End State 4 (FES4) Mission Command (MC) Interoperability with Unified Action Partners (UAP), and Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Integration and Training, Tactics and Procedures (TTP) assessment. The SoS engineering process decomposed the common operational, analytical, and technical requirements, while utilizing the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP) to provide structured accountability for the integration and execution of the AO-OD LVC-DE. As a result of this process implementation, AO-OD successfully planned for, prepared, and executed a distributed simulation support environment that responsively satisfied user needs and objectives, demonstrating the viability of an LVC-DE environment to support multiple user objectives and support risk mitigation activities for systems in the acquisition process.

Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable EU Flood Risk Management: FOSS and Geospatial Tools—Challenges and Opportunities for Operative Risk Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raffaele Albano

2015-12-01

Full Text Available An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to mitigate the impact of natural hazards on European economies and societies, improved risk assessment, and management needs to be pursued. With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in European flood management policy, flood analysis models have become an important part of flood risk management (FRM. In this context, free and open-source (FOSS geospatial models provide better and more complete information to stakeholders regarding their compliance with the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC for effective and collaborative FRM. A geospatial model is an essential tool to address the European challenge for comprehensive and sustainable FRM because it allows for the use of integrated social and economic quantitative risk outcomes in a spatio-temporal domain. Moreover, a FOSS model can support governance processes using an interactive, transparent and collaborative approach, providing a meaningful experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge through a process of guided discovery regarding flood risk management. This article aims to organize the available knowledge and characteristics of the methods available to give operational recommendations and principles that can support authorities, local entities, and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management in their compliance with the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC.

Development of safety analysis technology for integral reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sim, Suk K.; Song, J. H.; Chung, Y. J. and others

1999-03-01

Inherent safety features and safety system characteristics of the SMART integral reactor are investigated in this study. Performance and safety of the SMART conceptual design have been evaluated and confirmed through the performance and safety analyses using safety analysis system codes as well as a preliminary performance and safety analysis methodology. SMART design base events and their acceptance criteria are identified to develop a preliminary PIRT for the SMART integral reactor. Using the preliminary PIRT, a set of experimental program for the thermal hydraulic separate effect tests and the integral effect tests was developed for the thermal hydraulic model development and the system code validation. Safety characteristics as well as the safety issues of the integral reactor has been identified during the study, which will be used to resolve the safety issues and guide the regulatory criteria for the integral reactor. The results of the performance and safety analyses performed during the study were used to feedback for the SMART conceptual design. The performance and safety analysis code systems as well as the preliminary safety analysis methodology developed in this study will be validated as the SMART design evolves. The performance and safety analysis technology developed during the study will be utilized for the SMART basic design development. (author)

The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

2016-04-01

A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

Application of classification algorithms for analysis of road safety risk factor dependencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Oh Hoon; Rhee, Wonjong; Yoon, Yoonjin

2015-02-01

Transportation continues to be an integral part of modern life, and the importance of road traffic safety cannot be overstated. Consequently, recent road traffic safety studies have focused on analysis of risk factors that impact fatality and injury level (severity) of traffic accidents. While some of the risk factors, such as drug use and drinking, are widely known to affect severity, an accurate modeling of their influences is still an open research topic. Furthermore, there are innumerable risk factors that are waiting to be discovered or analyzed. A promising approach is to investigate historical traffic accident data that have been collected in the past decades. This study inspects traffic accident reports that have been accumulated by the California Highway Patrol (CHP) since 1973 for which each accident report contains around 100 data fields. Among them, we investigate 25 fields between 2004 and 2010 that are most relevant to car accidents. Using two classification methods, the Naive Bayes classifier and the decision tree classifier, the relative importance of the data fields, i.e., risk factors, is revealed with respect to the resulting severity level. Performances of the classifiers are compared to each other and a binary logistic regression model is used as the basis for the comparisons. Some of the high-ranking risk factors are found to be strongly dependent on each other, and their incremental gains on estimating or modeling severity level are evaluated quantitatively. The analysis shows that only a handful of the risk factors in the data dominate the severity level and that dependency among the top risk factors is an imperative trait to consider for an accurate analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

2002-01-01

Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk

Office of Integrated Assessment and Policy Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parzyck, D.C.

1980-01-01

The mission of the Office of Integrated Assessments and Policy Analysis (OIAPA) is to examine current and future policies related to the development and use of energy technologies. The principal ongoing research activity to date has focused on the impacts of several energy sources, including coal, oil shale, solar, and geothermal, from the standpoint of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. An additional project has recently been initiated on an evaluation of impacts associated with the implementation of the Toxic Substances Control Act. The impacts of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act on energy supply constitute the principal research focus of OIAPA for the near term. From these studies a research approach will be developed to identify certain common elements in the regulatory evaluation cycle as a means of evaluating subsequent environmental, health, and socioeconomic impact. It is planned that an integrated assessment team examine studies completed or underway on the following aspects of major regulations: health, risk assessment, testing protocols, environment control cost/benefits, institutional structures, and facility siting. This examination would assess the methodologies used, determine the general applicability of such studies, and present in a logical form information that appears to have broad general application. A suggested action plan for the State of Tennessee on radioactive and hazardous waste management is outlined

An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsson, Carl-Magnus

2008-01-01

The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 μGy h -1 incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide

A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerome J. Schleier III

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ. The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.

Risk perception and control, an integration of the psychometric research paradigm and social psychology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haugen, K.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: this paper argues that perceptual control is an essential component in human risk evaluation. Control is seen as an integrative concept between the psychometric research paradigm and various psychological theories. The psychometric approach to the study of risk has mainly dealt with the intuitive judgements people do when they are asked to evaluate risky activities and technologies. It shows that people judge risk in relation to the possible consequences and probabilities related to an outcome; the former more typical for the public and the latter more often used by experts. The psychometric research tradition has concentrated on doing human risk evaluations quantifiable and the reactions predictable. This paper also relates to possible practical implications of this strategy, namely that humans react heterogeneously to different kinds of threats due to perceived control. Theoretical ability to explain and elaborate perceptions of risk, as well as individual reactions, were the main criteria for the literature selection, which includes work on e.g. attribution theory, locus of control, and learned helplessness. Thus, the paper addresses available psychological views for a contribution to a developed theoretical framework for human risk evaluation. It seeks to compare and integrate the psychometric research tradition within social psychological theories. The way in which people find their informational basis for their risk judgements, either from others or from their own perceptions is also discussed. Furthermore, the theories are related to the social and psychological reactions of the Chernobyl accident. The paper concludes that psychological theories can contribute to a more comprehensive framework for the understanding of human risk evaluation, leading to a more coherent and integrative knowledge. (author)

Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Enterprise Architecture-Based Risk and Security Modelling and Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonkers, Henk; Quartel, Dick; Kordy, Barbara; Ekstedt, Mathias; Seong Kim, Deng

2016-01-01

The growing complexity of organizations and the increasing number of sophisticated cyber attacks asks for a systematic and integral approach to Enterprise Risk and Security Management (ERSM). As enterprise architecture offers the necessary integral perspective, including the business and IT aspects

Cost benefit analysis of power plant database integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilber, B.E.; Cimento, A.; Stuart, R.

1988-01-01

A cost benefit analysis of plant wide data integration allows utility management to evaluate integration and automation benefits from an economic perspective. With this evaluation, the utility can determine both the quantitative and qualitative savings that can be expected from data integration. The cost benefit analysis is then a planning tool which helps the utility to develop a focused long term implementation strategy that will yield significant near term benefits. This paper presents a flexible cost benefit analysis methodology which is both simple to use and yields accurate, verifiable results. Included in this paper is a list of parameters to consider, a procedure for performing the cost savings analysis, and samples of this procedure when applied to a utility. A case study is presented involving a specific utility where this procedure was applied. Their uses of the cost-benefit analysis are also described

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

Integration of Design and Control through Model Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Russel, Boris Mariboe; Henriksen, Jens Peter; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

2002-01-01

A systematic computer aided analysis of the process model is proposed as a pre-solution step for integration of design and control problems. The process model equations are classified in terms of balance equations, constitutive equations and conditional equations. Analysis of the phenomena models...... (structure selection) issues for the integrated problems are considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....... representing the constitutive equations identify the relationships between the important process and design variables, which help to understand, define and address some of the issues related to integration of design and control. Furthermore, the analysis is able to identify a set of process (control) variables...

Integral Risk Management for DBFM Tenders and Contracts in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wong, J.; Berkelaar, R.; Pekelharing, H.

2015-01-01

This paper presents an overview of an integral risk management approach with emphasis on the relationships with the costing and scheduling processes. Forms of uncertainty related to project planning are classified and implemented in the probabilistic costing and scheduling processes. Furthermore,

Direct integration multiple collision integral transport analysis method for high energy fusion neutronics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koch, K.R.

1985-01-01

A new analysis method specially suited for the inherent difficulties of fusion neutronics was developed to provide detailed studies of the fusion neutron transport physics. These studies should provide a better understanding of the limitations and accuracies of typical fusion neutronics calculations. The new analysis method is based on the direct integration of the integral form of the neutron transport equation and employs a continuous energy formulation with the exact treatment of the energy angle kinematics of the scattering process. In addition, the overall solution is analyzed in terms of uncollided, once-collided, and multi-collided solution components based on a multiple collision treatment. Furthermore, the numerical evaluations of integrals use quadrature schemes that are based on the actual dependencies exhibited in the integrands. The new DITRAN computer code was developed on the Cyber 205 vector supercomputer to implement this direct integration multiple-collision fusion neutronics analysis. Three representative fusion reactor models were devised and the solutions to these problems were studied to provide suitable choices for the numerical quadrature orders as well as the discretized solution grid and to understand the limitations of the new analysis method. As further verification and as a first step in assessing the accuracy of existing fusion-neutronics calculations, solutions obtained using the new analysis method were compared to typical multigroup discrete ordinates calculations

WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

An Integrated Cyber Security Risk Management Approach for a Cyber-Physical System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halima Ibrahim Kure

2018-05-01

Full Text Available A cyber-physical system (CPS is a combination of physical system components with cyber capabilities that have a very tight interconnectivity. CPS is a widely used technology in many applications, including electric power systems, communications, and transportation, and healthcare systems. These are critical national infrastructures. Cybersecurity attack is one of the major threats for a CPS because of many reasons, including complexity and interdependencies among various system components, integration of communication, computing, and control technology. Cybersecurity attacks may lead to various risks affecting the critical infrastructure business continuity, including degradation of production and performance, unavailability of critical services, and violation of the regulation. Managing cybersecurity risks is very important to protect CPS. However, risk management is challenging due to the inherent complex and evolving nature of the CPS system and recent attack trends. This paper presents an integrated cybersecurity risk management framework to assess and manage the risks in a proactive manner. Our work follows the existing risk management practice and standard and considers risks from the stakeholder model, cyber, and physical system components along with their dependencies. The approach enables identification of critical CPS assets and assesses the impact of vulnerabilities that affect the assets. It also presents a cybersecurity attack scenario that incorporates a cascading effect of threats and vulnerabilities to the assets. The attack model helps to determine the appropriate risk levels and their corresponding mitigation process. We present a power grid system to illustrate the applicability of our work. The result suggests that risk in a CPS of a critical infrastructure depends mainly on cyber-physical attack scenarios and the context of the organization. The involved risks in the studied context are both from the technical and

Integrating Physical Actions and Financial Instruments to Manage Environmental Financial Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, B.

2016-12-01

Exposure to extreme weather events can be reduced through physical actions (e.g., dams/reservoirs) or mitigated financially (e.g., insurance). Often physical actions involve investments in expensive infrastructure that reduce exposure, but whose benefits are only occasionally realized. Financial risk management does not reduce the impacts of an event, but rather redistributes them temporally, albeit at a cost. Nonetheless, these costs are typically much smaller, at least in the short run, than those incurred for physical actions. Financial strategies are also more flexible than physical ones in the face of an uncertain future. Financial contracts specifically designed to manage extreme environmental risks are becoming more common and can either replace or complement infrastructural investments as part of a risk management portfolio. In order to make optimal decisions as to the relative levels of physical and financial risk mitigation to employ, it is necessary to understand the relative merits of each strategy. This research develops a method for analyzing tradeoffs between physical and financial risk management strategies. We identify the unique cost and benefit properties of each strategy and integrate them into a single model that details the tradeoffs involved in various portfolios of physical and financial strategies. These methods are then applied to evaluate decisions to pursue emergency dredging during drought on the Mississippi River, which is used to mitigate the increased costs and/or reduced revenues barge operators face when water levels are low. Currently the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funds most emergency dredging operations during major droughts and they are considering more intensive strategies for future droughts. Barge carriers and shippers though could manage at least some portion of their financial risks through a series of existing and experimental financial contracts. This work involves the formulation of these experimental contracts and

Technology integrated teaching in Malaysian schools: GIS, a SWOT analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Habibah Lateh, vasugiammai muniandy

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Geographical Information System (GIS has been introduced and widely used in schools in various countries. The year 1990 onwards, the implementation of GIS in schools showed an increase. This is due to the drastic changes and reforms in the education system. Even though the name GIS suits well to the Geography subject, but it is widely integrated in various subjects such as History, Chemistry, Physics and Science. In Malaysia, GIS is common in fields such as risk management, architecture, town planning and municipal department. Anyhow, it is still unknown in the school education system. Even upper secondary students are not familiar with GIS. The Ministry of Education in Malaysia has been continuously reforming the education towards the aim of creating a society based on economic fundamentals and knowledge. The Master Plan for Educational Development with the aim of developing individual potential with well-integrated and balanced education is already on field. Recently, Malaysia invested 18 % of the annual national budget towards upgrading its education system. The computer in education program started in 1999. Three hundred and twenty two schools were chosen as ‘break a way’ from conventional teaching method towards technology integrated teaching. Projects such as New Primary School Curriculum (KBSR, Integrated Secondary School Curriculum (KBSM, Smart School Project, School Access Centre were introduced constantly. Teacher as the cogwheel of innovations in schools were given courses in aim to develop their ICT knowledge and skill. To this date, the technology integration in subjects is not equal and it disperses through subjects. Geography is one of the ‘dry’ subjects in schools with less technology which is not preferable among students. Geographical Information System (GIS is foremost the best Geographical Information Technology (GIT to be implied in geography subject. In Malaysian Education System, GIS is still exposed just in papers

Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk